[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 300605
SWODY2
SPC AC 300604

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1204 AM CST FRI DEC 30 2005

VALID 311200Z - 011200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE BLI 25 ESE PDX
MFR MHS RNO NFL 30 NNW ENV SLC BCE SGU NID BFL 60 WNW MRY.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

MODELS SUGGEST LITTLE CHANGE TO THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN THROUGH THIS
FORECAST PERIOD.  AN INTENSE ZONAL UPPER JET WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
MID LATITUDE PACIFIC...WITH THE PRIMARY BELT OF WESTERLIES...IN
SPLIT DOWNSTREAM FLOW...EXTENDING IN MORE OR LESS ZONAL FASHION
ACROSS THE UNITED STATES.  

EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS REGIME...ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE
IMPULSES...EMANATING FROM THE PACIFIC JET...IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS
RAPIDLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PACIFIC COAST INTO THE GREAT
BASIN SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY.  DOWNSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH HAS
ALREADY ADVANCED INTO THE CENTRAL STATES....BUT WILL BECOME LESS
PROGRESSIVE AS IT AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. 
HOWEVER...THIS FEATURE IS STILL PROGGED TO ADVANCE EASTWARD INTO THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY BY 12Z SATURDAY...THEN ACROSS NORTHERN/MID
ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS BY 12Z SUNDAY.  GIVEN ONLY A NARROW WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR AIR MASS MODIFICATION/DESTABILIZATION IN WAKE OF A
SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALREADY PROGRESSING OFF ATLANTIC
COASTAL AREAS...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ASSOCIATED WITH IMMEDIATE
UPSTREAM SYSTEM SEEMS LIKELY TO REMAIN LIMITED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN STATES.

CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER/PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE WEST...AHEAD OF
NEXT SYSTEM...LIKELY WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AS WELL. 
HOWEVER...MID-LEVEL COOLING/FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION MAY
BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT AREAS OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

...PACIFIC COAST STATES INTO INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING EARLY SATURDAY ALONG THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST...AIDED BY MODERATELY STRONG MOIST ONSHORE FLOW. 
THOUGH ONSHORE FLOW IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN...POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY TO THE WEST OF THE
CASCADES...AS MID-LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH PROGRESSES INLAND.

FARTHER SOUTH...MID-LEVEL COOLING/LIFT IN THE EXIT REGION OF A
STRONG JET STREAK MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION FOR
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SACRAMENTO
VALLEY...PERHAPS THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE SIERRA NEVADA.  THOUGH
VEERING LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS WITH HEIGHT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG
VERTICAL SHEAR...WEAK INSTABILITY DUE TO LITTLE OR NO SURFACE
HEATING CURRENTLY SEEMS LIKELY TO PRECLUDE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS. 
ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP INTO PARTS OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY BY EARLY
SATURDAY EVENING...POSSIBLY INTO THE GREAT BASIN LATER SATURDAY
NIGHT.

...SOUTHEAST...
MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE/DRYING IS PROGGED TO OVERSPREAD LOW-LEVEL 
MOISTURE RETURNING TO THE EASTERN GULF/SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES
BY EARLY SATURDAY.  THIS IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE RISK OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER INLAND AREAS.  HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
COULD PERSIST NEAR FRONT OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO...WITH
BETTER POTENTIAL DEVELOPING LATER IN THE DAY...OFF SOUTH ATLANTIC
COASTAL AREAS.

..KERR.. 12/30/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM