[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 190517
SWODY2
SPC AC 190516

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1116 PM CST SUN DEC 18 2005

VALID 201200Z - 211200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW UIL 45 E AST
65 SE EUG 50 E ACV 55 NNW SAC 15 ENE SJC 45 SSW MRY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WSW FMY 50 SSE AGR
45 NE MLB.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN IS FORECAST THIS PERIOD...WITH A
LARGE TROUGH PREVAILING OVER THE ERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS...A
RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES...AND A SECOND TROUGH AFFECTING THE W COAST.

LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS ACROSS THE CONUS WILL REMAIN STABLE WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF S FL...AS WEAK WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG SURFACE BOUNDARY
LINGERING OVER THE GULF/S FL.

...S FL AND THE KEYS...
WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL REMAIN INVOF S FL EARLY IN THE PERIOD.  AS
MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS SPREAD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO/FL AHEAD OF
DIGGING ERN U.S. TROUGH...A WEAK WAVE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE BOUNDARY.  ATTM...NAM SUGGESTS THAT THIS WAVE MAY DEVELOP JUST
OFF THE SERN FL COAST AND DRIFT SLOWLY NWD WITH TIME...WHICH COULD
ALLOW MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER TO ADVECT NWWD ACROSS SERN FL.  THOUGH
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY RESULT...WEAK LAPSE RATES/LIMITED
INSTABILITY SHOULD FAVOR DISORGANIZED/SUB-SEVERE CONVECTION.

...COASTAL SWRN WA SWD TO THE CENTRAL CA COAST...
COOLING ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH REACHING THE W COAST MAY
YIELD AN ELEVATED LAYER OF MINIMAL INSTABILITY SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT
A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WITHIN LARGER AREA OF PRECIPITATION.  MAIN
THREAT SHOULD EXIST FROM ROUGHLY THE SFO BAY AREA NWD...WHERE A
LEADING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

..GOSS.. 12/19/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM