From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Dec 1 06:10:36 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Thu, 01 Dec 2005 01:10:36 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200512010608.jB168uL1009391@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 010607 SWODY2 SPC AC 010606 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1206 AM CST THU DEC 01 2005 VALID 021200Z - 031200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNW CLM 25 ESE CLM SLE 50 SE OTH 50 WNW 4BK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM BIH TPH 55 ESE ELY U28 CEZ 40 WNW GUP IGM NID 65 NW NID BIH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ESE CRP UTS MLU MEI GZH 25 NE CEW 45 WSW AAF. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... POLAR LOW IS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA...WITH A SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE...EMANATING FROM THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC...NOW ACCELERATING WELL TO ITS SOUTH/EAST. REINFORCING COLD INTRUSION INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL STATES IS ONGOING WITH LATTER FEATURE...WHICH IS PROGGED RAPIDLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST LATER TODAY/TONIGHT...SUPPORTING INITIATION OF CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE NORTH ATLANTIC COAST. DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE IS PROGGED TO LIFT ACROSS MAINE INTO QUEBEC...WHERE NEW MID LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL BECOME MORE PROMINENT. MODELS SUGGEST UPSTREAM LOW WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SHEARED ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA...BUT ANOTHER SHORT WAVE EMANATING FROM THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WILL SUPPORT YET ANOTHER REINFORCING COLD SURGE IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. MODELS ALSO INDICATE THAT THIS SHORT WAVE...AND UPSTREAM IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONGER BELTS OF WESTERLIES OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL PACIFIC...WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY WEAK SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG FRONTAL ZONE FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY. ...EAST OF THE ROCKIES... WITH COLD AIR ENTRENCHED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN U.S... AND LEE CYCLOGENESIS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MINIMAL. LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO THE SOUTH/EAST OF DEVELOPING LOW WILL MAINTAIN A SIGNIFICANT WESTERLY COMPONENT...BUT A LIMITED RETURN FLOW OF GULF MOISTURE SEEMS LIKELY INTO PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A CAPPING ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WILL ADVECT EASTWARD OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS....AND RELATIVELY WARM MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT DOWNSTREAM OF DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH WILL PROVIDE FURTHER INHIBITION. THUS...PROBABILITIES FOR THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LOW UNTIL AT LEAST THE VERY END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...MORE LIKELY AFTER 12Z SATURDAY. ...SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN... MOISTENING ASSOCIATED WITH IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN SOUTHERN BRANCH OF POLAR WESTERLIES IS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. AS UPPER TROUGH GRADUALLY AMPLIFIES...MID-LEVEL COOLING SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY FRIDAY EVENING. ...PACIFIC NORTHWEST... WEAK TO MODERATE MOIST ONSHORE FLOW IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE...WITH COLD CORE OF UPPER TROUGH SLOW TO MIGRATE INLAND. THIS WILL MAINTAIN FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR CONVECTION...INCLUDING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG COASTAL AREAS. ..KERR.. 12/01/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Dec 1 17:16:49 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Thu, 01 Dec 2005 12:16:49 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200512011715.jB1HF6jE005738@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 011713 SWODY2 SPC AC 011712 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1112 AM CST THU DEC 01 2005 VALID 021200Z - 031200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N UIL 25 NNE HQM 30 NW SLE 20 E OTH 50 WNW 4BK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM BIH TPH 55 ESE ELY U28 CEZ 40 WNW GUP IGM NID 65 NW NID BIH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSE LBX 15 ENE UTS 40 N LFK 30 ESE TXK 15 N PBF 25 SW DYR 10 ENE MKL 45 SSE MKL 20 WNW TUP 25 ESE GWO 20 NNE JAN 15 S JAN 35 W PIB 30 S PIB 15 NNW MOB 35 ENE MOB 10 ESE PNS 55 SSE PNS. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LESS AMPLIFIED AND PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE CONUS IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO NRN NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. IN THE WEST...A NUMBER OF LOW-AMPLITUDE PERTURBATIONS WITHIN FAST ZONAL FLOW REGIME WILL PRODUCE A BROAD REGION OF WEAK HEIGHT FALLS FROM THE GREAT BASIN TO THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. LEE-SIDE CYCLOGENESIS IS FCST TO OCCUR OVER ERN CO AIDED BY LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS AND STRONG ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. SOME POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SCATTERED/SPORADIC LIGHTNING STRIKES AS MID LEVEL WAVE MOVES FROM SRN GREAT BASIN TO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA DURING THE DAY. ADDITIONALLY...STRENGTHENING WARM CONVEYOR BELT AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING LOW/TROUGH...FROM THE NWRN GULF COAST NEWD TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...COULD AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED ELEVATED TSTMS IN WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. ELSEWHERE...MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST BENEATH COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR CONVECTION WITH SOME CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TSTMS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE. ..CARBIN.. 12/01/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Dec 2 06:00:57 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Fri, 02 Dec 2005 01:00:57 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200512020559.jB25xEAc012452@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 020556 SWODY2 SPC AC 020555 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1155 PM CST THU DEC 01 2005 VALID 031200Z - 041200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW CHA 30 SE CHA 20 SSE RMG 30 SE BHM 40 NNE MEI 30 NNW HEZ 40 SSW MLU 45 S ELD 15 NE ELD 25 N UOX 40 N MSL 30 NW CHA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WSW POE 30 E CRS 10 SSE DEQ 45 ENE MKL 25 SE LOZ 25 NW RDU 25 SSE FAY 20 WSW AGS 10 W AUO 30 NNW PIB 40 WSW POE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE TN AND LWR MS VLYS... ...SYNOPSIS... FAST...LARGELY ZONAL FLOW WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASED AMPLIFICATION ON SATURDAY AS COMPLEX TROUGH NOW ENTERING THE NWRN STATES REDEVELOPS E/SE ACROSS THE GRT BASIN/RCKYS. A SERIES OF WEAK IMPULSES...NONE OF WHICH APPEAR PARTICULARLY NOTEWORTHY IN SATELLITE IMAGERY ATTM...WILL SWEEP E/NE FROM THE SRN PLNS INTO THE TN VLY AND CNTRL APPALACHIANS DURING THE PERIOD. SURFACE WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD DISTURBANCE SHOULD BE OVER CNTRL OK EARLY SATURDAY...AND SHOULD TRACK ENE INTO SRN VA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. ...LWR MS/TN VLYS... INCREASING WSWLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL CARRY AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER /EML/ PLUME ENE ACROSS THE LWR MS VLY/GULF CST STATES ON SATURDAY. AN AREA OF ELEVATED CONVECTION/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE PRESENT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD OVER PARTS OF TN/MS...IN REGION OF MAXIMUM UPLIFT ON NERN EDGE OF EML WHERE LIFT IS MAXIMIZED N OF WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH OK SURFACE WAVE. THIS ACTIVITY MAY INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY AND SPREAD ENE INTO PARTS OF AL...ERN TN AND GA LATER IN THE DAY AS LLJ STRENGTHENS AND CONTINUES TO MOISTEN. SUFFICIENT ELEVATED CAPE MAY DEVELOP TO YIELD A FEW STORMS WITH HAIL. ADDITIONAL...POSSIBLE SURFACE-BASED STORMS MAY DEVELOP W OR WSWWD ACROSS NRN/CNTRL MS...AND PERHAPS SRN AR/NRN LA...LATER SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT AS APPROACH OF COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH PASSING SURFACE WAVE ENHANCES LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACROSS REGION. AMPLE /40+ KT/ DEEP WLY SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT FOR SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS. LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL CHARACTER OF THE SHEAR...EXPECTED DEGREE OF SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY /SBCAPE AOB 1000 J PER KG/ AND NE MOTION OF THE STRONGEST MASS CONVERGENCE INTO THE APPALACHIANS SUGGEST THAT THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS WILL BE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND. ..CORFIDI/RACY.. 12/02/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Dec 3 05:49:48 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Sat, 03 Dec 2005 00:49:48 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200512030548.jB35m0o0010562@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 030546 SWODY2 SPC AC 030545 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1145 PM CST FRI DEC 02 2005 VALID 041200Z - 051200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE 7R4 30 SE LCH 10 NNW LCH 10 N POE 40 NNW ESF 45 E RMG 20 W AND 30 ESE AND 30 WSW CAE 25 SSE AGS 10 NW VDI 40 ENE ABY 15 WNW PNS 10 NW HUM 15 SSE 7R4. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W BRO 25 SW ALI 25 S BAZ 25 W TYR 35 SE HOT 25 NNW TRI 50 SSE WAL ...CONT... 45 ENE JAX 35 NNE CTY 35 S AAF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GULF COAST STATES AND FAR SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS... ...GULF COAST STATES/FAR SRN APPALACHIANS... A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CONUS WILL GRADUALLY DIG SWD INTO THE MID-MS VALLEY DURING THE DAY 2 PERIOD. IN RESPONSE...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SWD ACROSS THE OZARK PLATEAU AND MID-MS VALLEY INTO THE GULF COAST STATES AND SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE LATEST GFS RUN SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE CONCERNING THE TIMING AND POSITION OF THE COLD FRONT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. IT NOW APPEARS THE FRONT WILL MOVE FASTER AND BE POSITIONED FURTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. SFC DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD BE IN THE 60S F WITH SBCAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG BY MIDDAY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ALTHOUGH THE MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS SHOW MINIMAL LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION...SFC HEATING COMBINED WITH STRONG CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON SHOW MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR IN PLACE SUGGESTING A SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST ESPECIALLY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WHEN INSTABILITY SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED. THE EXPECTED SEVERE WEATHER COVERAGE REMAINS UNCERTAIN BUT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE EXISTS TO KEEP A SLIGHT RISK ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MARGINALLY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND THIS COMBINED WITH THE WEAK ASCENT SUGGESTS THAT SEVERE WEATHER COVERAGE MAY REMAIN FAIRLY ISOLATED. ..BROYLES.. 12/03/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Dec 3 17:45:27 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Sat, 03 Dec 2005 12:45:27 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200512031743.jB3Hhff1027184@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 031741 SWODY2 SPC AC 031740 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1140 AM CST SAT DEC 03 2005 VALID 041200Z - 051200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 S LCH 20 WNW LCH 30 W ESF 10 WSW JAN 30 ENE 0A8 20 SE ATL 40 NNW CAE 20 NNW VDI 15 E ABY 50 WSW AAF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W MFE 30 E BAZ 50 WSW TXK 45 SSW MSL 35 W HKY 30 ENE CHO 45 E SBY ...CONT... 45 SE CHS 30 WNW AYS 50 W CTY. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND INTO PARTS OF THE SERN U.S.... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS PERIOD...WITH SLOW AMPLIFICATION OF THIS FEATURE FORECAST TO OCCUR WITH TIME. A BROAD ZONE OF FAST WSWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THE ERN CONUS ALONG LEADING EDGE OF THIS TROUGH. SURFACE LOW -- INITIALLY FORECAST OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS REGION -- IS FORECAST TO MOVE ENEWD OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD. TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE APPALACHIANS WSWWD INTO SERN TX WILL MOVE SLOWLY SEWD THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS THE SERN QUARTER OF THE CONUS. LATE IN THE PERIOD...WEAK CYCLOGENESIS MAY OCCUR ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE SOUTHEAST...WITH WARM SECTOR LIKELY CONFINED TO SRN SC/GA/FL/SRN AL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. ...THE SOUTHEAST/LOWER MS VALLEY REGION... SRN FRINGES OF STRONGEST WSWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN INVOF THE SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHICH WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENTLY-STRONG SHEAR TO SUPPORT A SEVERE THREAT. MAIN QUESTION WITH REGARDS TO DEGREE OF SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO REVOLVE AROUND DEGREE OF FORCING -- AND THUS LIKELIHOOD FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT -- ALONG AND S OF FRONT WHERE GREATEST INSTABILITY IS FORECAST. ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT THE MAIN FORCING MECHANISM FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION/SUSTENANCE WILL BE WARM ADVECTION -- GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE COOL SIDE OF THE ANAFRONTAL-TYPE SURFACE BOUNDARY. WITH INSTABILITY LIKELY TO REMAIN QUITE LIMITED N OF BOUNDARY...ANY HAIL SHOULD REMAIN MARGINALLY-SEVERE AT BEST. IT APPEARS THOUGH THAT CONVECTION WILL BE ONGOING NEAR THE SURFACE FRONT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...AND DAYTIME HEATING OF MOIST WARM-SECTOR AIRMASS MAY EVENTUALLY RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED/NEARLY SURFACE-BASED STORMS JUST TO THE COOL SIDE OF FRONT. WITH GREATER INSTABILITY WITHIN THE FRONTAL ZONE...A THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS MAY EXIST. HOWEVER...WITH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO SURFACE BOUNDARY...LONG-LIVED/WIDESPREAD WIND THREAT APPEARS UNLIKELY EVEN IF SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION IS MORE WIDESPREAD THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN ONLY 15%/SLIGHT RISK FORECAST -- FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION NEWD INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL GA. ..GOSS.. 12/03/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Dec 4 07:04:12 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Sun, 04 Dec 2005 02:04:12 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200512040702.jB472NJU006561@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 040659 SWODY2 SPC AC 040658 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1258 AM CST SUN DEC 04 2005 VALID 051200Z - 061200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E VRB 35 SW APF ...CONT... 40 SSW PNS 10 ESE LGC GSP 20 SSE GSO RZZ 50 E ECG. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SE GA/FL... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS AND THIS TROUGH SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OR MOVE SLOWLY EWD TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A SFC LOW OVER CNTRL/NRN GA EARLY IN THE PERIOD SHOULD DRIFT SLOWLY EWD ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO SERN GA AND THE FL PANHANDLE BY MIDDAY. THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE MORNING DUE TO LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE MID-LEVEL JET AND SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S F. HOWEVER...THE AMOUNT OF DESTABILIZATION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY MAY BE LIMITED DUE TO WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER. A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT MAY STILL DEVELOP DUE TO THE 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES IN THE 40 TO 50 KT SHOWN BY GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS. IF A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT DEVELOPS IT SHOULD BE CONCENTRATED AROUND PEAK HEATING. ...ERN CAROLINAS... EARLY IN THE PERIOD...NAM AND GFS SOLUTIONS SUGGEST A SFC LOW WILL BE IN PLACE IN CNTRL GA WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD ACROSS SC AND SRN NC. AS THE LOW MOVES EWD DURING THE DAY...THE WARM FRONT SHOULD LIFT NWD INTO ERN NC AND THE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF SC. CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP ALONG THESE TWO BOUNDARIES DURING THE AFTERNOON AS DESTABILIZATION OCCURS. GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE IN PLACE SUGGESTING ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY REMAINS HIGHLY QUESTIONABLE. THE VERTICAL SHEAR COMBINED WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW DUE TO A 60 KT LOW-LEVEL JET JUST OFFSHORE MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. IF IT APPEARS SFC DEWPOINTS WILL BE HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST AND CLOUD COVER WILL NOT BE TOO WIDESPREAD ALLOWING FOR STRONGER DESTABILIZATION...AN UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK MIGHT BECOME NECESSARY. ..BROYLES.. 12/04/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Dec 4 17:34:17 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Sun, 04 Dec 2005 12:34:17 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200512041732.jB4HWPbl024829@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 041730 SWODY2 SPC AC 041729 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1129 AM CST SUN DEC 04 2005 VALID 051200Z - 061200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSW BVE 30 S MOB 35 SSW TOI 40 SE CSG 30 SE MCN 15 SSE AYS 10 ESE GNV 45 NNW PIE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S 7R4 30 NE MCB 30 WSW AND 40 WSW SOP RZZ 40 ESE ORF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ERN GULF COAST REGION... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS THE ENTIRE CONUS THIS PERIOD. FAIRLY STRONG SHORT-WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LARGER CYCLONIC FLOW FIELD IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MS/TN VALLEYS THROUGH THE DAY..AND THEN NEWD ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW -- INITIALLY FORECAST OVER GA -- IS FORECAST TO MOVE ENEWD WITH TIME...CLEARING THE CAROLINA COAST DURING THE EVENING. MEANWHILE...TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EWD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY...AND THEN OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST/SWD ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA THROUGH 06/12Z. ...ERN GULF COAST REGION... THOUGH COOL/STABLE NELY FLOW IN DAMMING REGIME E OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL LIMIT ANY NEWD EXPANSION OF WARM SECTOR...MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL EXIST ACROSS SERN AL/SRN GA THE FL PANHANDLE AND PARTS OF NRN FL. MARGINAL DESTABILIZATION OF THIS MOIST WARM SECTOR WILL BEGIN BY MID-MORNING WITH THE ONSET OF LIMITED DAYTIME HEATING. CONVECTION -- LIKELY ONGOING INVOF COLD FRONT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD -- SHOULD INTENSIFY IN CONJUNCTION WITH AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION...AIDED BY FAVORABLY-SHEARED ENVIRONMENT FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION. THOUGH OVERALL SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY BE MODULATED BY THE AMOUNT OF HEATING/DESTABILIZATION WHICH CAN OCCUR...IT APPEARS ATTM THAT DEGREE OF THREAT IS SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK. LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS WITHIN LINEAR BANDS ALONG AND AHEAD OF FRONT. HOWEVER...WITH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS AND A LOW-LEVEL FLOW FIELD FORECAST TO VEER WEAKLY AND INCREASE IN MAGNITUDE WITH HEIGHT...A TORNADO OR TWO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THREAT SHOULD DECREASE WITH TIME INTO THE EVENING AS FRONT MOVES OFF THE SRN ATLANTIC COAST...AND AS INSTABILITY DECREASES ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA AHEAD OF BOUNDARY. ..GOSS.. 12/04/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Dec 5 05:30:07 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Mon, 05 Dec 2005 00:30:07 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200512050528.jB55SHna020954@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 050527 SWODY2 SPC AC 050526 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1126 PM CST SUN DEC 04 2005 VALID 061200Z - 071200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW APF 40 NE PBI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM BRO CRP 45 SE AUS CLL UTS LCH 60 SSE 7R4. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... BELT OF BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT IS EVIDENT ATTM IN UPPER AIR DATA AND MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY...FROM NRN ROCKIES TO 4-CORNERS REGION AND SRN PLAINS...BECOMING NEARLY STRAIGHT SWLY NEWD ACROSS MID ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND REGION. RIDGE CONNECTING PACIFIC LONGWAVE RIDGE WITH BLOCKING HIGH OVER NUNAVUT IS BEING PENETRATED BY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT OVER NERN BC/NWRN ALTA. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO DIG SEWD ACROSS NRN ROCKIES AND EVOLVE INTO MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE OVER CO/WY BY 07/12Z. MEANWHILE...SFC COLD FRONT -- NOW ANALYZED FROM WRN NC SWWD ACROSS S-CENTRAL LA TO VICINITY BRO...IS FCST TO CONTINUE MOVING SEWD ACROSS SERN CONUS...REACHING SRN FL BY BEGINNING OF PERIOD AND STALLING ACROSS CENTRAL GULF. REINFORCING COLD SURGE WILL PRECEDE CENTRAL ROCKIES MIDLEVEL CYCLONE ACROSS SRN PLAINS. ...S FL...EARLY PERIOD... ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING FIRST FEW HOURS OF PERIOD WITH PASSAGE OF SFC COLD FRONT. THIS THUNDER AREA IS MARGINAL...WEAKENING TREND EXPECTED IN BOTH FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND MIDLEVEL INSTABILITY WITH TIME. HOWEVER...BOTH ETA AND ETA-KF FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE LITTLE OR NO CINH FOR EXPECTED SFC PARCELS WITH TEMPS LOW-MID 70S F AND LOW 70S DEW POINTS. UPPER REACHES OF BUOYANT AREAS ASSOCIATED WITH 250-500 J/KG MLCAPES EXTEND INTO FAVORABLE ICE PROCESS ZONES IN THOSE SOUNDINGS. ALREADY MARGINAL THUNDER POTENTIAL WILL BE SHUNTED SWD INTO STRAITS...BAHAMAS AND CUBA THROUGHOUT LATE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON AS BOUNDARY LAYER DRY/COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS PENINSULAR FL. ...TX/LA COASTAL PLAIN...NOCTURNAL... IN RESPONSE TO APCHG CENTRAL ROCKIES LOW...STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA REGIME AND ELEVATED MOISTURE RETURN SHOULD OCCUR AFTER 07/00Z ACROSS NW GULF AND PORTIONS TX/LA COASTAL PLAIN. BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS STILL WILL BE RELATIVELY COOL AND STABLE IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT NOW MOVING SEWD INTO NWRN GULF. HOWEVER...WAA ATOP THAT LAYER SHOULD STEEPEN LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND GENERATE BUOYANCY IN COMBINATION WITH INCREASING MOISTURE ABOVE SFC. ANIMATION OF MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATES RELATED NEAR-SATURATION OF THAT LAYER -- ROUGHLY BETWEEN 850-700 MB -- COULD GENERATE ELEVATED MUCAPES 100-400 J/KG...WITH ONLY A DEGREE OR TWO OF BASAL WARMING/COOLING IN THAT LAYER RESULTING IN LARGE RESPECTIVE INCREASE/DECREASE OF BUOYANCY. ...CENTRAL ROCKIES... VERY COLD AIR ALOFT WILL RESULT IN STEEP LAPSE RATES THROUGH SHALLOW LOWER-MIDTROPOSPHERIC LAYER OVER PORTIONS CO/WY/SERN ID/NERN UT...ESPECIALLY DURING LATE MORNING INTO EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER...BITTER COLD SFC AIR...ASSOCIATED LIMITED MOISTURE...AND VERY WEAK BUOYANCY INDICATE THUNDER POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN MINIMAL. ..EDWARDS.. 12/05/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Dec 5 17:09:08 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Mon, 05 Dec 2005 12:09:08 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200512051707.jB5H7Iku012270@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 051704 SWODY2 SPC AC 051704 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1104 AM CST MON DEC 05 2005 VALID 061200Z - 071200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SW SRQ 45 E MLB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE BRO CRP HDO BWD 10 WSW FTW TYR LCH 70 SSE 7R4. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... DOWNSTREAM OF CONFLUENT BELTS OF POLAR AND SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES ...BROADLY CYCLONIC INTENSE HIGH-LEVEL JET WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD...FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN QUARTER OF THE U.S. INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC. HOWEVER...MODELS SUGGEST STRONGER WEST SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER JET CORE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS/MID ATLANTIC COAST...WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLONE LIFTING AWAY FROM THE MID AND NORTH ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS. ANOTHER STRONG JET STREAK IS PROGGED TO DIG INTO THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE POLAR WESTERLIES. THIS FEATURE IS CURRENTLY NOSING OUT OF BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...AND IS FORECAST INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. IN ASSOCIATION WITH EVOLVING UPPER FLOW REGIME...PRIMARY SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE IS EXPECTED THROUGH ALL AREAS EAST OF THE ROCKIES...EXCEPT THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA/KEYS...BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. WHILE A REINFORCING COLD FRONT SURGES SOUTHWARD TO THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES...A WEAK LOW/WAVE COULD DEVELOP ALONG LEAD BOUNDARY OFF THE SOUTHERN TEXAS COAST BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. ...FLORIDA... RELATIVELY WARM MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND WEAK UPPER FORCING APPEAR LIKELY TO MINIMIZE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...ENHANCED CONVERGENCE NEAR FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA EARLY IN THE DAY MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH... SEEMS TO BE IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BOTH THE EASTERN GULF AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. OTHERWISE...PRE-FRONTAL WIND SHIFT INTO SOUTHEAST COASTAL AREAS COULD BECOME A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE AFTERNOON...BEFORE ADVANCING SOUTHWARD INTO THE KEYS. ...TEXAS... MODIFICATION OF BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND INCREASING WARM ADVECTION REGIME...DOWNSTREAM OF DEVELOPING UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK DESTABILIZATION TUESDAY NIGHT. INSTABILITY/FORCING COULD BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TOWARD 12Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF TEXAS COASTAL WATERS. ELEVATED MOISTURE RETURN WILL OCCUR ABOVE SURFACE-BASED INVERSION LAYER INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST TEXAS...BUT UNCERTAINTY EXISTS CONCERNING STRENGTH OF MID-LEVEL INHIBITION ACROSS THIS REGION THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. ..KERR.. 12/05/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Dec 6 06:05:40 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Tue, 06 Dec 2005 01:05:40 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200512060603.jB663kjS017356@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 060601 SWODY2 SPC AC 060600 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1200 AM CST TUE DEC 06 2005 VALID 071200Z - 081200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S MFE 15 SSE ALI 20 E NIR 30 NNW PSX 20 NNE LBX 35 ESE GLS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 W FMY 15 N APF 40 E FMY 40 SW VRB 45 NE MLB. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS A BAND OF NW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES WITH AN UPPER-TROUGH MOVING SWD THROUGH SRN CANADA. NAM AND GFS SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THE TROUGH WILL CLOSE-OFF OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS BY THE DAY 2 PERIOD HELPING TO REINFORCE THE COLD AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN NLY ACROSS MUCH OF THE SRN HALF OF UNITED STATES...ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY REMAIN IN PLACE ALONG THE LOWER TX COAST AND IN SRN FL FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. CONVECTION WILL BE MOST LIKELY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY TUESDAY EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AS A SFC LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE LOWER TX COAST. MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE AS THE FRONT MOVES SEWD INTO THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE EVENING. ..BROYLES.. 12/06/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Dec 6 17:20:50 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Tue, 06 Dec 2005 12:20:50 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200512061718.jB6HIuco014963@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 061717 SWODY2 SPC AC 061716 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1116 AM CST TUE DEC 06 2005 VALID 071200Z - 081200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 ESE CRP 20 NE PSX 30 N BPT 30 NW BTR PNS AAF 40 SE AAF ...CONT... 50 SSW CTY PIE 55 W FMY. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... COLD AIR AT LOW-LEVELS IS NOW ENTRENCHED ACROSS MUCH OF THE NATION EAST OF THE ROCKIES...WITH A REINFORCING COLD INTRUSION NOW ONGOING IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL SURGE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY...AS STRONG MID/UPPER JET STREAK /NOW DIGGING ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/ NOSES EASTWARD OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THROUGH THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS AND OZARK PLATEAU REGION. UPPER FEATURE WILL SUPPORT EVOLVING CLOSED LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH DOWNSTREAM FLOW...IN BOTH POLAR AND SUBTROPICAL BELTS OF WESTERLIES...BECOMING BROADLY ANTICYCLONIC ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN QUARTER OF THE NATION. ...GULF OF MEXICO INTO SOUTHEASTERN U.S... ISENTROPIC ASCENT...ASSOCIATED WITH BROAD LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME...BENEATH FAVORABLE RIGHT QUADRANT OF UPPER JET ENTRANCE REGION...WILL INCREASE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE GULF STATES DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT INCREASING CLOUD COVER/PRECIPITATION...BUT POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SEEMS MINIMAL INLAND OF IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS DUE TO WEAK LAPSE RATES AND WEAK MOISTURE RETURN. MODIFICATION/MOISTENING OF BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO MAY BECOME SUFFICIENT...HOWEVER...TO SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THIS APPEARS MOST LIKELY NEAR/NORTH THROUGH EAST OF A WEAK WAVE DEVELOPING ON SURFACE FRONT...AS IT PROGRESSES FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY LATE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ..KERR.. 12/06/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Dec 7 06:41:06 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Wed, 07 Dec 2005 01:41:06 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200512070639.jB76dD6x028470@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 070636 SWODY2 SPC AC 070635 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1235 AM CST WED DEC 07 2005 VALID 081200Z - 091200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 S MOB 30 E CEW 40 S MCN 25 ENE AGS 15 NNW FAY 20 WSW ORF 40 ENE WAL. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... A CLOSED LOW OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WILL DIG SEWD REACHING THE MID-MS VALLEY BY THURSDAY. BANDS OF STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL SPREAD NEWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES AS THE THROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION. IN RESPONSE...A SFC LOW WILL TAKE SHAPE IN THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING NWD ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S F ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH SFC HEATING AND LOW-CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE SCATTERED STORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE DAY AS THE RIGHT QUADRANT OF A 100 KT MID-LEVEL JET AFFECTS THE REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR CNTRL FL THURSDAY AFTERNOON SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 50 TO 60 KT WITH STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE 850 TO 700 MB LAYER. THIS COULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT IN THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY CAN MATERIALIZE. WHETHER ENOUGH INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP FOR A SEVERE THREAT REMAINS HIGHLY QUESTIONABLE ATTM. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CONUS...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED. ..BROYLES.. 12/07/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Dec 7 17:31:57 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Wed, 07 Dec 2005 12:31:57 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200512071730.jB7HU4D8021389@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 071724 SWODY2 SPC AC 071723 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1123 AM CST WED DEC 07 2005 VALID 081200Z - 091200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSE LCH JAN TCL AND AVC 20 WSW ORF 60 E ORF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSE MIA 30 N MIA 25 S AGR 55 SSW SRQ. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... COMPLEX SPLIT UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD...WITH BELTS OF POLAR WESTERLIES AND SUBTROPICAL STREAM REMAINING GENERALLY CONFLUENT EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND MEXICAN PLATEAU. IN RESPONSE TO DIGGING UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH...AND PERHAPS ANOTHER DIGGING JET ACROSS NORTHERN MANITOBA/ONTARIO... MODELS SUGGEST CENTRAL PLAINS CLOSED LOW WILL BE FORCED EASTWARD. THIS FEATURE WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SHEARED AS IT ACCELERATES THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MUCH OF THE OHIO VALLEY BY 12Z FRIDAY. FARTHER UPSTREAM...SHORT WAVE DIGGING ALONG THE NORTHERN PACIFIC COAST IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. SYSTEM WILL BECOME CUT-OFF FROM MAIN BELT OF POLAR WESTERLIES...CRESTING NORTHEAST PACIFIC RIDGE INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES...BUT SOME PHASING WITH SUBTROPICAL STREAM MAY OCCUR LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. MEANWHILE...DOWNSTREAM IMPULSE IN SUBTROPICAL STREAM IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY LIFT ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL MEXICAN PLATEAU...TOWARD THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. ...EASTERN STATES... STRONG LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION REGIME WILL OVERSPREAD MOST AREAS FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI/OHIO VALLEYS EASTWARD TO THE ATLANTIC COAST DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...WITH THE GULF OF MEXICO STILL MODIFYING AND MOISTURE LIMITED DUE TO RECENT COLD INTRUSIONS...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY MINIMAL. MODELS DO SUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND MOISTURE RETURN ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL STREAM. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BECOME SUFFICIENTLY STEEP FOR WEAK CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY IN A LAYER...BASED AROUND 700 MB...WITH FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC STRUCTURE FOR LIGHTNING. COVERAGE/PROBABILITIES OF STORMS MAY BE LOWER END...BUT WILL SPREAD FROM THE EASTERN GULF STATES THURSDAY INTO THE SOUTHERN/MID ATLANTIC REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...CLOUD COVER AND RELATIVELY WARM/WARMING MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE AN APPRECIABLE RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS...EXCEPT PERHAPS NEAR FLORIDA COASTAL AREAS. WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER BASED DESTABILIZATION SEEMS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF WEAK SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPING TOWARD THE FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION...AND POSSIBLY ALONG WARM FRONT/CONFLUENT BAND DEVELOPING NEAR EAST CENTRAL COASTAL AREAS. IF THIS OCCURS...SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL WITH RISK OF A TORNADO OR DAMAGING WIND GUST. THIS POTENTIAL SHOULD END THURSDAY EVENING... WITH RISK FOR VIGOROUS CONVECTION DEVELOPING OFF SOUTH ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS. ...WESTERN/CENTRAL STATES... DRY/COOL ENVIRONMENT SHOULD PRECLUDE RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS. ..KERR.. 12/07/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Dec 8 06:47:58 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Thu, 08 Dec 2005 01:47:58 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200512080646.jB86k3ct008550@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 080644 SWODY2 SPC AC 080643 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1243 AM CST THU DEC 08 2005 VALID 091200Z - 101200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW CTY 20 ENE SGJ. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... AT UPPER-LEVELS...A LARGE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CNTRL AND ERN U.S. THROUGH FRIDAY REINFORCING THE COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE NATION. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SWD ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN CNTRL FL AS TEMPS HEAT UP FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL AND NO SEVERE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED. ELSEWHERE...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS NOT ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE CONUS. ..BROYLES.. 12/08/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Dec 8 17:40:05 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Thu, 08 Dec 2005 12:40:05 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200512081738.jB8HcBp4027377@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 081736 SWODY2 SPC AC 081735 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK ISSUED BY AFWA OFFUTT AIR FORCE BASE BELLEVUE NE 1135 AM CST THU DEC 08 2005 VALID 091200Z - 101200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW PIE 40 ESE DAB. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... AT UPPER-LEVELS...A LARGE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CNTRL AND ERN U.S. THROUGH FRIDAY REINFORCING THE COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE NATION. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SWD ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN SRN FL AS TEMPS HEAT UP FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL AND NO SEVERE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED. ELSEWHERE...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS NOT ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE CONUS. ..AFWA.. 12/08/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Dec 9 05:45:19 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Fri, 09 Dec 2005 00:45:19 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200512090543.jB95hOrv014446@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 090540 SWODY2 SPC AC 090539 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1139 PM CST THU DEC 08 2005 VALID 101200Z - 111200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS/FORECAST... REX BLOCK WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH AN ACTIVE JET ARCING FROM THE CANADIAN YUKON TO THE ERN STATES. AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF RIDGING ACROSS THE ERN STATES IN WAKE OF THE DEPARTING DISTURBANCE NOW MOVING ACROSS THE MIDWEST...A SERIES OF JETLETS WILL DIG SEWD FROM CANADA...RESUMING THE EVOLUTION INTO A FULL LATITUDE ERN NOAM TROUGH THIS WEEKEND. CONTINUAL SURGES OF STABLE CP AIR MASSES SEWD INTO THE ERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY WILL KEEP PROBABILITIES FOR TSTMS VERY LOW. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS CNTRL/SRN FL VCNTY AN OLD FRONT THAT WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AFTN. TSTMS APPEAR UNLIKELY GIVEN WEAK MID-TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES AND LACK OF SUBSTANTIAL LARGE SCALE SUPPORT. ..RACY.. 12/09/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Dec 9 17:02:02 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Fri, 09 Dec 2005 12:02:02 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200512091700.jB9H0ArU020706@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 091658 SWODY2 SPC AC 091657 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1057 AM CST FRI DEC 09 2005 VALID 101200Z - 111200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... MODELS SUGGEST BLOCK...WHICH HAS BECOME MORE READILY EVIDENT OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC/WEST COAST STATES DURING THE PAST DAY OR SO... WILL REMAIN STRONG THROUGH AT LEAST THIS FORECAST PERIOD. DOWNSTREAM OF THIS FEATURE...PHASING OF MULTIPLE BELTS OF POLAR WESTERLIES...AND THE SUBTROPICAL STREAM...IS PROGGED LATE TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...LEADING TO THE EVOLUTION OF A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY 12Z SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH EXPANSIVE COLD SURFACE RIDGE...NOW OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL STATES/NORTHERN AND WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WILL WEAKEN BY EARLY SATURDAY...UPPER PATTERN WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER STRENGTHENING SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND MUCH OF THE GULF BY EARLY SUNDAY. ...GULF/SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES... SURFACE WIND SHIFT/SHALLOW COLD SURGE WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF FLORIDA TODAY. HOWEVER...LEADING EDGE OF DEEPER COLD AIR WILL BE SLOWER TO PROGRESS THROUGH THE CENTRAL PENINSULA. MODELS SUGGEST PRIMARY SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL REFORM ACROSS THIS AREA SATURDAY...BECOMING FOCUS FOR POSSIBLE NEW SURFACE WAVE/LOW DEVELOPMENT EAST OF THE FLORIDA ATLANTIC COAST. THOUGH WEAK MID-LEVEL COOLING MAY ACCOMPANY PROGRESSION OF A SUBTROPICAL IMPULSE ACROSS FLORIDA EARLY IN THE PERIOD...INHIBITION DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY TO WEAKEN SUFFICIENTLY FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER INLAND AREAS...GIVEN ONLY SLOW MODIFICATION/MOISTENING OF BOUNDARY LAYER. ..KERR.. 12/09/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Dec 10 06:00:05 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Sat, 10 Dec 2005 01:00:05 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200512100558.jBA5wB7j015578@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 100555 SWODY2 SPC AC 100554 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1154 PM CST FRI DEC 09 2005 VALID 111200Z - 121200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS/FORECAST... DEEP COLD UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD ACROSS ERN NOAM ON SUNDAY AS THE REX BLOCK CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT...A SEASONABLY COLD AIR MASS WILL COVER THE ERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY. AN OLD FRONT ACROSS CNTRL FL WILL BE FORCED SWD INTO THE STRAITS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION GIVEN POOR LAPSE RATES AND WEAK MASS CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT. THE REMAINDER OF THE COUNTRY WILL STAY TOO STABLE TO SUPPORT TSTMS. ..RACY.. 12/10/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Dec 10 16:37:58 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Sat, 10 Dec 2005 11:37:58 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200512101636.jBAGaAtu021098@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 101633 SWODY2 SPC AC 101632 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1032 AM CST SAT DEC 10 2005 VALID 111200Z - 121200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST... AMPLIFIED LARGE-SCALE PATTERN IS FORECAST DURING THE DAY 2 PERIOD...CHARACTERIZED BY A DEEP TROUGH IN THE E AND A SPLIT FLOW /HIGH OVER LOW/ REGIME IN THE W. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...A MOIST BOUNDARY-LAYER /I.E. DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S/ WILL INITIALLY EXIST ACROSS THE SRN FL PENINSULA AHEAD OF A SWD-MOVING COLD FRONT. WHILE IT APPEARS THAT SOME SHALLOW CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG OR IMMEDIATELY BEHIND FRONT...WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE COUPLED WITH POOR LAPSE RATES AND RESULTANT MARGINAL INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT ANY TSTM DEVELOPMENT. ELSEWHERE...AIR MASS WILL REMAIN DRY AND STABLE. ..MEAD.. 12/10/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Dec 11 05:50:11 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Sun, 11 Dec 2005 00:50:11 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200512110548.jBB5mHKu024109@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 110546 SWODY2 SPC AC 110544 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1144 PM CST SAT DEC 10 2005 VALID 121200Z - 131200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS/FORECAST... UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL UNDERGO CHANGES ON MONDAY AS THE REX BLOCK WEAKENS AHEAD OF A STRONG NPAC JET TRANSLATING TOWARD THE CANADIAN PAC COAST. AS A RESULT...THE CUT-OFF SUBTROPICAL LOW OFF SRN CA ATTM WILL SLOWLY EJECT EWD ACROSS THE GRT BASIN BY EARLY TUE AS THE ERN NOAM TROUGH LIFTS NEWD. MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THE SUB-TROPICAL IMPULSE ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS...BUT TSTMS ARE NOT LIKELY GIVEN RIDGING/WARMING ALOFT. ELSEWHERE...TSTMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. ..RACY.. 12/11/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Dec 12 06:05:24 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Mon, 12 Dec 2005 01:05:24 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200512120603.jBC63XMl020597@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 120601 SWODY2 SPC AC 120600 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1200 AM CST MON DEC 12 2005 VALID 131200Z - 141200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSW MRF 30 ESE FST 35 SSW ABI 25 WNW ADM 25 WNW FYV 25 ENE RUE 40 N ELD 35 WSW IER 45 ESE UTS 30 NW LBX 15 NE NIR 45 NW LRD. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... SUBTROPICAL CUT-OFF LOW SITUATED OFF SRN CA IS EXPECTED TO OPEN UP AND EJECT EWD INTO THE GRT BASIN BY LATE MON AS A STRONG NPAC JET/SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. DESPITE PHASING OF THE SUBTROPICAL AND POLAR JETS ON TUE...THE SRN IMPULSE WILL MAINTAIN IDENTITY WITH ITS ASSOCIATED 80+KT H5 JET TRANSLATING ACROSS TX BY 12Z WED. ...CNTRL/ERN TX... SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE OVERALL WEAKENING OF THE REX BLOCK AND SUBSEQUENT ARRIVAL OF THE SHORTWAVE IMPULSE INTO THE SRN PLAINS TUE NIGHT. MUCH OF TUE WILL SEE LARGE SCALE RIDGING AND WARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. INCREASING SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSPORT MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE NWD INTO CNTRL/ERN TX BENEATH THE STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT...BUT SURFACE BASED PARCELS WILL BE CAPPED. AS THE LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH SPREADS EWD AND THE SLY LLJ RESPONDS...GRADUAL MOISTENING OF THE COLUMN WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SOME DESTABILIZATION ALOFT LATE TUE NIGHT ACROSS CNTRL/ERN TX. ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT A WIDESPREAD REGION OF CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP FROM ERN OK/AR SWD INTO CNTRL TX AFTER MIDNIGHT TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED. EMBEDDED STRONGER TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY OVER CNTRL/ERN TX CLOSER TO THE STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ISOLD STORMS MAY BRIEFLY PULSE TO NEAR SEVERE LEVELS WITH HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. ..RACY.. 12/12/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Dec 12 17:05:05 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Mon, 12 Dec 2005 12:05:05 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200512121703.jBCH3G91017675@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 121700 SWODY2 SPC AC 121659 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1059 AM CST MON DEC 12 2005 VALID 131200Z - 141200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW 6R6 65 WSW SJT 35 NNW MWL 20 S BVO 30 SSE SGF 40 W MEM 60 E MLU 30 S ESF 10 NNW LBX 10 SSE LRD. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SRN PLAINS THROUGH LOWER MS VALLEY... A SLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS BY TUESDAY EVENING AS LEE CYCLOGENESIS COMMENCES WITH APPROACH OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE SWRN STATES. OFFSHORE TRAJECTORIES ALONG THE WRN GULF WILL PERSIST UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY. HOWEVER...BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON INCREASING SLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW SHOULD ALLOW PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S TO BEGIN RETURNING NWD THROUGH S AND S CNTRL TX. ONLY MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE MOIST AXIS WITH MUCAPES GENERALLY AOB 500 J/KG. INCREASING ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND THETA-E ADVECTION ACCOMPANYING THE LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM CNTRL/ERN TX NWD INTO ERN OK TUESDAY EVENING. ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD EWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN INSUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A HAIL THREAT. ..DIAL.. 12/12/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Dec 13 06:02:23 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Tue, 13 Dec 2005 01:02:23 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200512130600.jBD60Wik029948@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 130558 SWODY2 SPC AC 130557 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1157 PM CST MON DEC 12 2005 VALID 141200Z - 151200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSE CRP AUS 30 NNE CRS 20 WSW DEQ HOT 50 E PBF 35 E GWO 45 SSW CBM 20 WNW DHN 55 W CTY. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... ADVERTISED PATTERN CHANGE WILL TAKE PLACE TODAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE RETROGRADES TO 140W...FORCING THE NPAC JET NWD INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA. DOWNSTREAM...THE SUBTROPICAL LOW HAS BECOME DISLODGED AND WILL EJECT QUICKLY EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS BY WED EVE WHILE PARTIALLY PHASING WITH THE NRN STREAM. THE NRN STREAM WILL START TO AMPLIFY BY WED NIGHT AS THE EPAC RIDGE MIGRATES TOWARD THE COAST... WITH A SUBSEQUENT EVOLUTION OF A DOWNSTREAM LONGWAVE TROUGH IN THE PLAINS STATES. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT THAT WILL SETTLE SEWD IN WAKE OF THE SUBTROPICAL DISTURBANCE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS SERN TX AND THE LWR MS VLY WED AFTN/EVE. A WEAK LOW WILL FORM ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS SERN TX AND MOVE EWD ACROSS SRN LA BY WED NIGHT. ...SERN TX TO THE LWR MS VLY... CONVECTION ONGOING EARLY WED ACROSS ERN TX IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EWD THROUGH THE DEEP S DURING THE DAY AS A MODEST SSWLY LLJ TRANSLATES EWD IN TANDEM WITH THE EJECTING MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE. TAIL END OF THE WARM CONVEYOR CONVECTION MAY INTENSIFY WED AFTN ACROSS THE UPPER TX COAST AND SRN LA WHERE A WARM SECTOR... CHARACTERIZED BY LOWER 60S DEW POINTS...MAY MOVE ASHORE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. PRESENCE OF 50-60 KTS OF H5 FLOW ATOP THE INCREASINGLY BUOYANT AIR MASS MAY SUPPORT ISOLD SEVERE STORMS AS FAR N AS THE UPPER TX COAST EWD THROUGH SRN LA AND PERHAPS EXTREME SRN MS WED AFTN/EVE. MAIN THREAT WILL BE ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...THOUGH ISOLD TORNADOES MAY OCCUR IF A SUBSTANTIAL WARM SECTOR CAN MOVE ASHORE. ANY SEVERE THREAT THAT MATERIALIZES DURING THE AFTN WILL LIKELY DECREASE RAPIDLY DURING THE EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING...AND FARTHER EWD WHERE RESIDUAL WEDGE LIMITS INSTABILITY EAST OF THE MS RVR. ..RACY.. 12/13/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Dec 13 17:39:08 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Tue, 13 Dec 2005 12:39:08 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200512131737.jBDHbK66029144@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 131735 SWODY2 SPC AC 131734 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1134 AM CST TUE DEC 13 2005 VALID 141200Z - 151200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NE BRO 40 SE COT 30 WSW AUS ACT TYR 25 NNE SHV 50 ENE MLU JAN MAI 55 W CTY. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... AS AN AMPLIFIED EASTERN U.S. TROUGH BEGINS TO SHIFT AWAY FROM THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD...INTERACTING IMPULSES...EMBEDDED WITHIN BELTS OF WESTERLIES DOWNSTREAM OF EASTERN PACIFIC BLOCK...ARE ALREADY CONTRIBUTING TO THE EVOLUTION OF ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL STATES. PERHAPS OF MOST SIGNIFICANCE TO THIS PROCESS IS A VIGOROUS JET STREAK/SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN NORTHERN BRANCH OF POLAR WESTERLIES...NOW DIGGING IN THE LEE OF THE CANADIAN/NORTHERN U.S. ROCKIES. MODELS SUGGEST THIS FEATURE WILL PROGRESS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATER TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BEFORE DEVELOPING INTO A BROAD CLOSED LOW BY 12Z THURSDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...A STRONG MID/UPPER JET...ASSOCIATED WITH BOTH THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF POLAR WESTERLIES AND THE SUBTROPICAL STREAM...IS PROGGED TO NOSE EAST OF THE LOWER LATITUDE EASTERN PACIFIC...INTO/THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/PARTS OF LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. IN RESPONSE TO EVOLVING PATTERN...ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR IS PROGGED IN THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES. LEADING EDGE OF THIS INTRUSION SEEMS LIKELY TO ADVANCE THROUGH WESTERN/ CENTRAL GULF COASTAL AREAS BY LATE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT... WITH COLD AIR ALREADY DAMMED IN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS...ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES...SLOW TO MODIFY. THUS DESPITE ONGOING MODIFICATION OF AIR MASS OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...POTENTIAL FOR BOUNDARY LAYER-BASED DESTABILIZATION AND CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD SEEMS LOW...AND LIKELY GENERALLY LIMITED TO MID/UPPER TEXAS COASTAL AREAS. ...GULF STATES... LEAD IMPULSE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN/SUBTROPICAL STREAM IS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO WEAKENING INHIBITION ACROSS WESTERN GULF COASTAL AREAS BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. IN CONJUNCTION WITH CONTINUING WARMING/MOISTENING OF BOUNDARY LAYER OFF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH STRENGTHENING LOW/MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT INCREASING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS MID AND UPPER TEXAS COASTAL AREAS BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. THOUGH LAPSE RATES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME PARTICULARLY STEEP...NAM/NAM KF FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST BOUNDARY LAYER BASED CAPE COULD BRIEFLY APPROACH 1000 J/KG EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IF THIS OCCURS...AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE IN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS...BEFORE STRONGER FORCING SHIFTS OFFSHORE LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ..KERR.. 12/13/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Dec 14 06:04:57 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Wed, 14 Dec 2005 01:04:57 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200512140603.jBE637O9014587@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 140600 SWODY2 SPC AC 140559 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1159 PM CST TUE DEC 13 2005 VALID 151200Z - 161200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SSW HUM 30 NNW MOB 25 E CSG 25 SW AGS 35 NE FLO 15 NNE RWI 15 ENE RIC BWI 15 NE PHL 20 SSW JFK 40 SSE ISP ...CONT... 35 ESE VRB 45 WSW FMY. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... STRONG NRN JET STREAM WILL CARVE OUT A DEEP COLD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE CNTRL/ERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH THU. BASE OF THIS TROUGH WILL MIGRATE EWD ACROSS THE SERN STATES THU AFTN...BEFORE GOING NEGATIVE-TILT AND EJECTING NEWD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC BY EARLY FRI. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE GULF COAST FROM SRN AL ACROSS SRN GA DURING THU...THEN REDEVELOP QUICKLY NEWD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES THU NIGHT/EARLY FRI. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SEWD ACROSS NRN/CNTRL FL. ...NRN/CNTRL FL...SRN GA AND THE COASTAL CAROLINAS... LINEAR MCS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING FROM SRN AL SWD INTO THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO AT 12Z THU ALONG THE AXIS OF A 45-50 KT SWLY LLJ. TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW SUGGESTS THAT MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO NRN FL AND SRN GA THU AFTN...BUT BUOYANCY SHOULD REMAIN WEAK. NONETHELESS...HODOGRAPHS EXHIBIT SIGNIFICANT LOW-LEVEL TURNING AND SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR MINI-SUPERCELLS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLD TORNADOES. IT IS UNCLEAR IF THE WARM SECTOR WILL CONTAIN SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER...BUT THE THREAT DOES WARRANT LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES ATTM. DURING THU NIGHT...AS THE LLJ AND SURFACE LOW QUICKLY TRANSLATE/ DEVELOP NEWD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION...SOME DESTABILIZATION IS LIKELY ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. STRONGER INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE GULF STREAM...BUT WEAK CAPE/HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT ALONG THE COAST MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST LOW PROBABILITIES FOR ISOLD STRONGER-SEVERE TSTMS. ..RACY.. 12/14/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Dec 15 06:02:51 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Thu, 15 Dec 2005 01:02:51 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200512150601.jBF613gh010901@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 150558 SWODY2 SPC AC 150557 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1157 PM CST WED DEC 14 2005 VALID 161200Z - 171200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE BRO 45 NNE MFE 15 NNW ALI 25 S VCT 50 ESE PSX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S ISP 15 SW EWB 55 NNE HYA. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... A BROAD UPPER CYCLONE CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER ACROSS THE UPPER GRTLKS REGION/NWRN ONTARIO ON FRI. STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED ALONG THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE BROAD TROUGH WILL EJECT NEWD FROM THE SERN STATES EARLY FRI TO NEW ENGLAND BY EARLY SAT. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS IMPULSE WILL EXTEND FROM SRN FL WWD ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF BASIN FRI NIGHT. UPSTREAM...STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL MIGRATE SLOWLY EWD INTO THE WRN PARTS OF NOAM...WITH A RATHER ACTIVE SRN STREAM UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS NRN MEXICO. AN EMBEDDED SPEED MAX IS EXPECTED TO MIGRATE FROM THE NRN BAJA REGION AND THEN PHASE WITH THE NRN STREAM WHILE TRANSLATING QUICKLY TOWARD NRN MEXICO BY FRI NIGHT. TAIL-END OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE GULF BASIN WILL REDEVELOP NWD TOWARD THE S TX COAST BY EARLY SAT. ...COASTAL S TX... BACKING FLOW REGIME DOWNSTREAM FROM THE SUB-TROPICAL IMPULSE WILL INDUCE INCREASING WARM/MOIST ADVECTION ACROSS THE WRN GULF BASIN AND COASTAL SECTIONS OF S TX FRI AFTN/NIGHT. AS A RESULT...BANDS OF CONVECTION ARE EXPECTED TO FORM...PRIMARILY FRI NIGHT ACROSS COASTAL S TX AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE NEARBY GULF WATERS. EMBEDDED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT ELEVATED BUOYANCY SHOULD REMAIN WEAK AND PRECLUDE ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS. ...COASTAL SRN NEW ENGLAND... STRONG DPVA ASSOCIATED WITH NEGATIVE-TILT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND FRI AFTN WITH AN ASSOCIATED BAND OF SHOWERS. ISOLD TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN COASTAL SRN NEW ENGLAND WHERE CLOUD TOPS MAY APPROACH MINUS 20C...ESPECIALLY OWING TO SUCH STRONG LARGE SCALE ASCENT. ..RACY.. 12/15/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Dec 15 17:35:48 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Thu, 15 Dec 2005 12:35:48 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200512151734.jBFHY0aS025311@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 151731 SWODY2 SPC AC 151730 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1130 AM CST THU DEC 15 2005 VALID 161200Z - 171200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE MFE 55 NNE MFE 35 NE CRP 50 SSE LBX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ENE SBY 35 ESE DOV JFK 10 ENE PSF LCI 50 S BHB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S EYW MIA 50 NNE PBI. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... MODELS SUGGEST A BLOCKING UPPER HIGH CENTER WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME MORE PROMINENT ACROSS THE CANADIAN ROCKIES DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. AS THIS OCCURS...THE BROAD CIRCULATION OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IS PROGGED TO ELONGATE...WITH A SIGNIFICANT COLD POOL DEVELOPING SOUTHWARD/SOUTHWESTWARD OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES/PLAINS. IN RESPONSE TO A SERIES OF IMPULSES ROTATING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN/EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW...A STRONG UPPER JET...NOW OVER THE GULF STATES...WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO REDEVELOP NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC. IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH...UPSTREAM...A BROAD TROUGH WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MEXICAN PLATEAU/LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY...AS THE EXIT REGION OF AN INTENSE ZONAL CENTRAL PACIFIC JET NOSES TOWARD THE CALIFORNIA COAST. IN RESPONSE TO EVOLVING UPPER PATTERN...THE LEADING EDGE OF ONE COLD INTRUSION WILL PROGRESS OFF ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. A WEAK REINFORCING SURGE WILL TAKE PLACE ACROSS TEXAS INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...WITH MUCH MORE COLDER AIR SETTLING INTO A LARGE PORTION OF THE NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL STATES. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STABLE THERMODYNAMIC STRUCTURE ACROSS MUCH OF THE NATION...AND CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE QUITE MINIMAL. ...NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... MODELS DO SUGGEST STRONG LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION NEAR AND NORTHEAST OF SURFACE CYCLONE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENTLY STEEP LAPSE RATES FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BY/SHORTLY AFTER 12Z FRIDAY. ENVIRONMENT APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MID DAY...BEFORE FORCING WEAKENS/SHIFTS EAST OF COASTAL AREAS. ...SOUTHERN FLORIDA... SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY BE ONGOING AT 12Z AHEAD OF FRONT NEAR COASTAL AREAS. HOWEVER...THIS THREAT WILL END EARLY AS FRONT PROGRESSES OFFSHORE...AND MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE. ...SOUTH TEXAS... AHEAD OF SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH...STRONG LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME AND MODIFYING BOUNDARY LAYER NEAR/SOUTH OF FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO MAY SUPPORT INCREASING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. MOST ACTIVITY APPEARS LIKELY TO REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF COASTAL AREAS...HOWEVER. ..KERR.. 12/15/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Dec 16 07:24:51 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Fri, 16 Dec 2005 02:24:51 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200512160723.jBG7N9hw005868@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 160720 SWODY2 SPC AC 160719 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0119 AM CST FRI DEC 16 2005 VALID 171200Z - 181200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SE CRP 45 WNW COT 45 ENE FST 35 NNE HOB 50 ESE PVW 10 SE FTW 25 SW LFK 10 SSW BPT 30 WSW HUM 15 SSW MGR 45 SE SAV. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE TROUGH WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SHORT-WAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION WITHIN BROAD SWLY FLOW ALOFT. AS THIS FEATURE SHIFTS ENEWD INVOF SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE FORECAST OVER THE NRN GULF...WEAK WAVE MAY DEVELOP/SHIFT EWD ALONG BOUNDARY THROUGH THE PERIOD. ...TX INTO THE GULF COAST REGION... THE MAJORITY OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT-WAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE GULF COAST REGION SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE GULF. HOWEVER...AREA OF SHOWERS/ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP/SHIFT EWD FROM TX TO FL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITHIN LAYER OF WEAK INSTABILITY. ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL DUE TO ELEVATED/WEAK INSTABILITY. ..GOSS.. 12/16/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Dec 16 17:25:11 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Fri, 16 Dec 2005 12:25:11 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200512161723.jBGHNQt8025068@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 161716 SWODY2 SPC AC 161715 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1115 AM CST FRI DEC 16 2005 VALID 171200Z - 181200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SSE CRP 25 SW COT 15 N DRT 15 W SJT 40 NE ABI 15 SE FTW 25 NNW BPT 35 ENE LCH 35 NNW GPT 20 NNE VLD 50 ESE SAV. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... PRIMARY UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ACROSS QUEBEC ON SATURDAY...WITH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINING OVER MUCH OF THE CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES. MEANWHILE...UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE FAR ERN PACIFIC WILL DEVELOP SLOWLY EWD TO ALONG THE WEST COAST BY 12Z SUNDAY. SRN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH...NOW MOVING INTO FAR W TX...IS EXPECTED TO DE-AMPLIFY ON DAY 2 AS IT TRACKS INTO CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY. NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH...NOW MOVING SSEWD ACROSS ORE/NRN CA AND ALONG ERN PERIPHERY OF ERN PACIFIC RIDGE...IS PROGGED TO REMAIN AMPLIFIED AS IT TRACKS FROM SRN HIGH PLAINS/NRN MEXICO ACROSS TX TO TN VALLEY/AL/GA. ...TX INTO THE GULF COAST REGION... BAROCLINIC ZONE INITIALLY EXTENDING FROM THE SRN GULF OF MEXICO TO FAR SRN FL WILL MOVE NWD ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA AND INTO THE NRN GULF. A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WRN EXTENT OF THIS BOUNDARY BY END OF DAY 1 PERIOD/START OF DAY 2 JUST OFF THE S TX COAST. THIS LOW WILL TRACK ENEWD ALONG THE RETREATING SURFACE FRONT...REACHING THE NERN GULF BY 12Z SUNDAY. STRONGER UPPER FORCING WITH THE MORE AMPLIFIED SRN STREAM TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. HOWEVER...WAA REGIME ASSOCIATED WITH STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF SAME TROUGH WILL SUPPORT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FROM PARTS OF CENTRAL/SE TX EWD ALONG THE GULF COAST REGION TO FAR SRN GA/FL. WEAK INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT THIS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...BUT LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER. ...CENTRAL FL... STRONGER STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE RETREATING FRONT IN CENTRAL FL SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL AND DEEP SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR SOME ORGANIZED ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...THE LACK OF UPPER FORCING AND WEAK LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE COVERAGE...AND THUS PRECLUDE THE INCLUSION OF LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES IN THIS OUTLOOK. ..PETERS.. 12/16/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Dec 17 06:38:51 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Sat, 17 Dec 2005 01:38:51 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200512170637.jBH6b8s3018111@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 170635 SWODY2 SPC AC 170633 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1233 AM CST SAT DEC 17 2005 VALID 181200Z - 191200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NNW PIE 25 E SGJ. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO PREVAIL THIS PERIOD...WITH AIRMASS OVER MOST OF THE CONUS REMAINING GENERALLY DRY/STABLE. FRONT MOVING SWD ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA THROUGH MOIST BOUNDARY-LAYER AIRMASS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...WHILE AN UPPER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE ACROSS CA/ORE WILL ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A STRAY LIGHTING STRIKE. OVERALL HOWEVER...CONVECTIVELY INACTIVE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS. ...SRN HALF OF FL... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED ALONG AND S OF SWD-MOVING COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER...DESPITE MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS...WEAK LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR WARM-SECTOR DESTABILIZATION. THIS COMBINED WITH THE LACK OF A WELL-DEFINED FEATURE WITHIN ROUGHLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WSWLY FLOW ALOFT AND ONLY MARGINAL /AROUND 30 KT/ 0-6 KM SHEAR ABOVE WARM SECTOR ALL SUGGEST THAT STORMS SHOULD REMAIN SUB-SEVERE. ...CA... MODELS DEPICT A RELATIVELY STRONG SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO NRN CA/ORE DURING THE AFTERNOON. COOL MID-LEVEL AIR/STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ALOFT MAY RESULT IN A LAYER OF MEAGER ELEVATED INSTABILITY...POSSIBLY SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW A FEW ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES WITHIN LARGER AREA OF PRECIPITATION. MINIMAL COVERAGE OF LIGHTNING ANTICIPATED ATTM PRECLUDES ISSUANCE OF A GENERAL THUNDER LINE ACROSS THIS AREA. ..GOSS.. 12/17/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Dec 17 17:31:35 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Sat, 17 Dec 2005 12:31:35 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200512171729.jBHHTqNE018168@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 171728 SWODY2 SPC AC 171727 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1127 AM CST SAT DEC 17 2005 VALID 181200Z - 191200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NNW PIE 25 E SGJ. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SRN FL... SRN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE NWRN GULF COAST...IS PROGGED TO TRACK FROM THE SRN APPALACHIANS/SERN STATES TO OFF THE EAST COAST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE...ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NC/SC COAST WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE AS IT TRACKS NEWD...WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING SWD ACROSS SRN FL. WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY DEVELOPING ACROSS SRN FL MAY SUPPORT SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...THE LACK OF SUFFICIENT UPPER FORCING AND THE WEAK INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. ...CA/SRN ORE... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE ERN PACIFIC AT 35N 144W. MODELS SUGGEST THIS TROUGH SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY OFFSHORE AS IT TRACKS NEWD TOWARD THE PAC NW COAST. THE SRN EXTENT OF THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DE-AMPLIFY AS IT MOVES EWD INTO UPPER RIDGE ACROSS NRN CA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND FARTHER INLAND TO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST SUNDAY NIGHT. GIVEN RECENT TRENDS IN OCEANIC LIGHTNING DATA SHOWING PERSISTENT STRIKES WITH THIS TROUGH... STEEPENING LAPSE RATES SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW STRIKES ALONG AND MAINLY OFFSHORE THE COAST OF CENTRAL/NRN CA AND SRN ORE. INLAND COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO LIMITED TO INCLUDE A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM LINE ACROSS THIS AREA. ..PETERS.. 12/17/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Dec 18 05:09:40 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Sun, 18 Dec 2005 00:09:40 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200512180508.jBI580gk028216@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 180505 SWODY2 SPC AC 180504 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1104 PM CST SAT DEC 17 2005 VALID 191200Z - 201200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSW APF 25 ENE MLB. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS THE ERN 2/3 OF THE CONUS THIS PERIOD...WHILE RIDGE AMPLIFIES WITH TIME ACROSS THE W COAST STATES/GREAT BASIN. WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILING ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CONUS...GENERALLY DRY/STABLE AIRMASS IS EXPECTED. ...S FL... SURFACE BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO LINGER ACROSS FAR SRN FL/THE FL KEYS THROUGH THE DAY...BEFORE SHIFTING SWD TOWARD CUBA OVERNIGHT. MARGINALLY-UNSTABLE AIRMASS INVOF FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...COMBINATION OF WEAK LAPSE RATES AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR GENERALLY LESS THAN 30 KT SUGGESTS THAT STORMS SHOULD REMAIN SUB-SEVERE. ..GOSS.. 12/18/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Dec 18 17:32:17 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Sun, 18 Dec 2005 12:32:17 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200512181730.jBIHUchs001911@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 181728 SWODY2 SPC AC 181727 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1127 AM CST SUN DEC 18 2005 VALID 191200Z - 201200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSW APF 25 ENE MLB. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER FLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED DURING THE DAY 2 PERIOD. A DEEP TROUGH CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR 150-160W IS PROGGED TO SPREAD EWD TO NEAR 135W OVER THE ERN PACIFIC...WITH DOWNSTREAM RIDGE STRENGTHENING ACROSS WRN NORTH AMERICA. STABLE AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL OVER MOST OF THE CONTINENTAL U.S. ON MONDAY...GIVEN A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM PARTS OF THE WEST TO NORTH CENTRAL STATES SSEWD TO THE EAST COAST AND GULF BASIN. ...SRN FL... A SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY SWD ACROSS FAR SRN/SERN FL ON MONDAY. MODELS SUGGEST THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...BUT WEAK LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY ARE EXPECTED TO PREVENT ACTIVITY FROM BECOMING SEVERE. ..PETERS.. 12/18/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Dec 19 05:21:18 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Mon, 19 Dec 2005 00:21:18 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200512190519.jBJ5JeL8022351@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 190517 SWODY2 SPC AC 190516 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1116 PM CST SUN DEC 18 2005 VALID 201200Z - 211200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW UIL 45 E AST 65 SE EUG 50 E ACV 55 NNW SAC 15 ENE SJC 45 SSW MRY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WSW FMY 50 SSE AGR 45 NE MLB. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN IS FORECAST THIS PERIOD...WITH A LARGE TROUGH PREVAILING OVER THE ERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS...A RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES...AND A SECOND TROUGH AFFECTING THE W COAST. LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS ACROSS THE CONUS WILL REMAIN STABLE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF S FL...AS WEAK WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG SURFACE BOUNDARY LINGERING OVER THE GULF/S FL. ...S FL AND THE KEYS... WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL REMAIN INVOF S FL EARLY IN THE PERIOD. AS MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS SPREAD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO/FL AHEAD OF DIGGING ERN U.S. TROUGH...A WEAK WAVE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY. ATTM...NAM SUGGESTS THAT THIS WAVE MAY DEVELOP JUST OFF THE SERN FL COAST AND DRIFT SLOWLY NWD WITH TIME...WHICH COULD ALLOW MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER TO ADVECT NWWD ACROSS SERN FL. THOUGH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY RESULT...WEAK LAPSE RATES/LIMITED INSTABILITY SHOULD FAVOR DISORGANIZED/SUB-SEVERE CONVECTION. ...COASTAL SWRN WA SWD TO THE CENTRAL CA COAST... COOLING ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH REACHING THE W COAST MAY YIELD AN ELEVATED LAYER OF MINIMAL INSTABILITY SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WITHIN LARGER AREA OF PRECIPITATION. MAIN THREAT SHOULD EXIST FROM ROUGHLY THE SFO BAY AREA NWD...WHERE A LEADING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ..GOSS.. 12/19/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Dec 19 17:20:11 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Mon, 19 Dec 2005 12:20:11 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200512191718.jBJHIcgG029834@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 191713 SWODY2 SPC AC 191712 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1112 AM CST MON DEC 19 2005 VALID 201200Z - 211200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW AST 40 W PDX 10 SSW EUG 25 NW MFR 30 WSW MHS 50 W RBL 50 W UKI. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... SECONDARY MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE/ASSOCIATED VORTICITY MAX IS FORECAST TO MOVE SEWD WITHIN THE SRN STREAM FROM THE SRN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ESEWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THIS WILL PHASE WITH BROAD TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO CREATE LARGE ERN U.S. TROUGH BY 21/12Z. MEANWHILE...CLOSED LOW AROUND 36N 142W WILL WEAKEN AND LIFT NEWD TOWARDS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AS HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE TRANSLATES SLOWLY EWD OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. LARGE SURFACE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO COVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE EAST CENTRAL U.S. AND SOUTHEASTERN STATES INHIBITING SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TO CONSIDER SEVERE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE CONUS. ...COASTAL AREAS OF OREGON INTO NWRN CA... MODELS INDICATE MODERATE/STRONG HORIZONTAL/VERTICAL SHEAR OVER THIS AREA WITH WEAKENING TROUGH AS IT APPROACHES THE NWRN U.S. LATE TUESDAY MORNING THRU TUESDAY EVENING. MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST AROUND -18C TO -20C...BARELY ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 7C/KM DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THUS... ENOUGH MID LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THIS AREA. ..MCCARTHY.. 12/19/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Dec 20 06:58:07 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Tue, 20 Dec 2005 01:58:07 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200512200656.jBK6uZcm004489@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 200654 SWODY2 SPC AC 200653 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1253 AM CST TUE DEC 20 2005 VALID 211200Z - 221200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WNW BLI 25 SE OLM 45 NNE MFR 25 SE RBL 25 NNE MER 25 WNW BFL 50 S OXR. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... A PROGRESSIVE AND DEAMPLIFYING FLOW PATTERN ALOFT IS FORECAST THIS PERIOD...AS ERN TROUGH BEGINS SHIFTING INTO THE ATLANTIC AND THE ERN PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE. AS A RESULT...WRN RIDGE SHOULD FLATTEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. WEAK SURFACE LOW INITIALLY FORECAST OFF THE FL ATLANTIC COAST SHOULD SHIFT EWD AHEAD OF ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING SEWD AWAY FROM THE SRN FL PENINSULA...TAKING WITH IT THE TROPICAL BOUNDARY LAYER AND ANY RELATED THUNDER THREAT. THE ONLY THUNDER POTENTIAL THIS PERIOD APPEARS TO EXIST IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE ONSHORE PROGRESSION OF THE WRN U.S. TROUGH. ...THE WEST... COLD AIR ALOFT/STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE SHOULD RESULT IN MARGINAL BUT SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED WITHIN LARGE AREA OF PRECIPITATION FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THIS REGION. THOUGH A STRIKE OR TWO MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER THE SIERRA -- OR EVEN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN...THE GREATEST -- ALBEIT STILL LIMITED -- COVERAGE OF LIGHTNING SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED PRIMARILY TO THE COASTAL RANGES. ..GOSS.. 12/20/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Dec 20 17:30:48 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Tue, 20 Dec 2005 12:30:48 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200512201729.jBKHTLwK015666@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 201727 SWODY2 SPC AC 201726 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1126 AM CST TUE DEC 20 2005 VALID 211200Z - 221200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NNW UIL UIL HQM AST 35 WNW SLE 35 NNE 4BK 25 E EKA RBL 55 SE RBL FAT 30 W BFL 20 S VBG. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... IN MID/UPPER LEVELS...GENERAL DEAMPLIFICATION OF NRN STREAM PATTERN IS FCST THROUGH PERIOD AS WRN CONUS RIDGE FLATTENS...AND HEIGHTS RISE ACROSS MUCH OF MIDDLE-LOWER GREAT LAKES REGIONS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH - NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER OK AND N TX -- IS FCST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS SERN CONUS AND OFFSHORE GA/CAROLINAS EARLY IN PERIOD. MEANWHILE UPSTREAM PERTURBATION -- NOW ASSOCIATED WITH SPEED MAX ALOFT ANALYZED OVER NRN ROCKIES -- IS EXPECTED TO DIG SEWD ACROSS SRN PLAINS AND NERN GULF...REACHING FL PENINSULA BY 22/12Z. NET EFFECT OF THESE TWO TROUGHS...AND ASSOCIATED SFC REINFORCEMENT OF CONTINENTAL-POLAR AIR MASS OVER GULF COAST STATES -- WILL BE TO SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OVER GREAT MAJORITY OF CONUS. EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER SOME PORTIONS PACIFIC COAST STATES. ...PACIFIC COAST STATES... PRIMARY CYCLONE TRACK ACROSS NERN PACIFIC WILL CONTINUE INTO ERN GULF OF AK AND ADJACENT PORTIONS AK/BC. HOWEVER...AS WRN CONUS RIDGE WEAKENS...MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER TO MORE WLY COMPONENT ACROSS REGION AND SEVERAL MINOR SHORTWAVE PERTURBATIONS WILL RESULT IN SUBTLE BUT SUSTAINED MIDLEVEL COOLING/DESTABILIZATION OVER AREA. WITH WEAK CINH EXPECTED...ASSOCIATED STEEPENING OF LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY RESULT IN WEAK MUCAPES UNDER 300 J/KG AND EPISODIC THUNDER POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL CA REGION WHERE LOW LEVEL WAA REGIME WILL REMAIN STRONG. COVERAGE SHOULD BE MARGINAL FOR GEN THUNDER OUTLOOK. ..EDWARDS.. 12/20/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Dec 21 07:07:32 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Wed, 21 Dec 2005 02:07:32 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200512210706.jBL765af010624@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 210703 SWODY2 SPC AC 210702 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0102 AM CST WED DEC 21 2005 VALID 221200Z - 231200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE CLM 35 SSE OLM 15 NE EUG 40 NNW MFR 30 NNW MHS 35 SW SFO. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... A SOMEWHAT MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL PREVAIL THIS PERIOD...AS ERN U.S. TROUGH DEAMPLIFIES AND MOVES EWD WHILE WRN TROUGH MOVES INLAND FLATTENING THE UPSTREAM RIDGE. LATE IN THE PERIOD...TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BEGIN SLIGHT AMPLIFICATION OVER THE PLAINS STATES AS SHORT-WAVE ENERGY ALOFT MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...STABLE CONTINENTAL AIRMASS SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE CONUS...WITH MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH HAS LINGERED INVOF S FL FORECAST TO BE SHUNTED SEWD AWAY FROM THE CONUS. ...THE W COAST... MINIMALLY-UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND UPSLOPE ASCENT OVER THE COASTAL RANGES OF THE PAC NW AND INTO NRN CA MAY SUPPORT TRANSIENT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITHIN LARGER AREA OF PRECIPITATION. LIMITED INSTABILITY EXPECTED SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL COVERAGE OF LIGHTNING. ..GOSS.. 12/21/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Dec 21 16:53:22 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Wed, 21 Dec 2005 11:53:22 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200512211651.jBLGpvDh001807@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 211650 SWODY2 SPC AC 211649 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1049 AM CST WED DEC 21 2005 VALID 221200Z - 231200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNE UIL 20 W OLM PDX 40 NNW MFR RBL 35 SW SFO. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVE AND TEMPORARILY DEAMPLIFYING UPPER AIR PATTERN IS FCST DURING PERIOD. GENERALLY MOIST WLY-SWLY FLOW ALOFT WITH EMBEDDED/LOW-AMPLITUDE PERTURBATIONS WILL CHARACTERIZE W COAST REGIME. UPPER TROUGH -- WITH EMBEDDED LOW INITIALLY EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY INVOF 45N137W -- IS EXPECTED TO OPEN AND EJECT NEWD INTO WA/BC LATE DAY-1. UPSTREAM TROUGH NEAR 150W IS FCST TO MOVE INLAND WA/ORE DURING DAY-2 PERIOD. THIS FEATURE IS MOST AMPLIFIED IN 12Z OPERATIONAL SPECTRAL MODEL AND 09Z SPECTRAL MEMBERS OF SREFX COMPARED TO OTHER MODELS...AND THAT SOLUTION IS PREFERRED BASED ON SATELLITE PRESENTATION AND EVOLUTION OF DOWNSTREAM PATTERN. FARTHER E...SHORTWAVE TROUGH INITIALLY OVER E TX AND LA WILL TURN EWD AND MOVE OFF SERN COAST INTO ATLANTIC. MEANWHILE...UPSTREAM TROUGH NOW OVER PACIFIC COAST STATES WILL PENETRATE MEAN WRN CONUS RIDGE AND MOVE ACROSS SRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. STRONG SFC RIDGING ACROSS GULF COAST STATES AND ADJACENT NRN GULF OF MEXICO WILL PRECLUDE SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE RETURN AND THEREFORE TSTM POTENTIAL OVER CONUS E OF ROCKIES. ...PACIFIC COAST STATES... TRANSIENT/INTERMITTENT THUNDER EPISODES POSSIBLE FROM COASTAL RANGES WWD INTO ADJACENT PACIFIC AMIDST MARGINAL BUOYANCY OF 300 J/KG OR LESS...AND WEAK CINH. TSTM PROBABILITIES MAY PEAK FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN...IN ZONE OF WEAK LARGE SCALE DPVA THAT WILL PRECEDE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. ..EDWARDS.. 12/21/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Dec 22 07:06:35 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Thu, 22 Dec 2005 02:06:35 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200512220705.jBM75DYf022546@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 220702 SWODY2 SPC AC 220701 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0101 AM CST THU DEC 22 2005 VALID 231200Z - 241200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... TROUGH IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS THIS PERIOD AS SHORT-WAVE ENERGY EXITS THE MEAN RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND MOVES THROUGH THE NRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS REGION. IN RESPONSE...SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN WHILE MOVING SEWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL SURGE RAPIDLY SEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH A SHALLOW/HIGHER THETA-E BOUNDARY LAYER EXPECTED TO SPREAD NWD INTO THE WRN GULF COAST REGION AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT TURNS MORE SLY. HOWEVER...AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY. ANY LIGHTNING THIS PERIOD WOULD LIKELY BE LIMITED TO THE NEUTRAL/MINIMALLY-UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT NEAR MID-LEVEL HEIGHT/THERMAL TROUGH AS IT CROSSES THE NRN ROCKIES DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...POTENTIAL COVERAGE APPEARS INSUFFICIENT TO WARRANT INCLUSION OF A THUNDER AREA. ..GOSS.. 12/22/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Dec 22 17:27:52 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Thu, 22 Dec 2005 12:27:52 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200512221726.jBMHQV6i020540@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 221724 SWODY2 SPC AC 221723 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1123 AM CST THU DEC 22 2005 VALID 231200Z - 241200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... A PRIMARILY ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH THE DAY 2 PERIOD. ON A FINER SCALE...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE WLY-S IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY IN THE NRN ROCKIES TONIGHT. AS THE WAVE PASSES BY LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO HELP INITIATE VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WY AND CO AS TEMPS WARM FRIDAY LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...VERY LIMITED MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP ANY LIGHTNING COVERAGE BELOW THE 10 % THRESHOLD. IN SOUTH TX...THE NAM DEVELOPS ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR CONVECTION FOR THE DAY 2 PERIOD. HOWEVER...THIS APPEARS TO BE OVERDONE CONSIDERING SFC DEWPOINTS ARE STILL IN THE 40S AND 50S F ACROSS THE REGION. IN ADDITION...A CAPPING INVERSION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE AND CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS UNLIKELY FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS SOUTH TX. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CONUS...LIGHTNING ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT. ..BROYLES.. 12/22/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Dec 23 05:48:31 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Fri, 23 Dec 2005 00:48:31 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200512230547.jBN5lGbb018093@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 230545 SWODY2 SPC AC 230544 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1144 PM CST THU DEC 22 2005 VALID 241200Z - 251200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SE BPT 30 ENE IER 25 NE LLQ 25 SW MEM 30 SE MKL 50 NNE HSV 55 SSW TYS 35 NW AND 25 E SPA 35 WSW SOP 30 NNE FAY 20 WNW EWN 20 SSE EWN 85 SE EWN ...CONT... 40 ENE VRB 50 WSW APF. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... A HIGH-AMPLITUDE PATTERN IS FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY TWO PERIOD WITH PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST BEING EVOLUTION OF DEEP MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE NATION. SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NW AS OF 23/12Z WILL UNDERGO SIGNIFICANT AMPLIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS IT PROGRESSES SEWD...DUE IN LARGE PART TO REINTENSIFICATION OF WRN U.S. RIDGE. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...PRIMARY SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH EVOLVING UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE MID MS VALLEY AT 24/12Z. DESPITE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES IN IT/S TRACK...THIS FEATURE WILL GENERALLY DEVELOP NEWD INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY OR CNTRL/ERN GREAT LAKES BY 25/12Z. MEANWHILE...TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EWD THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND GULF COAST AND WILL LIKELY EXTEND FROM THE SURFACE LOW SWD ACROSS THE PIEDMONT INTO NRN FL BY SUNDAY MORNING. ...GULF COAST INTO THE SERN STATES... CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND GPS PW LOOPS INDICATE A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS /DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S/ ACROSS THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO WITH THE RICHEST MOISTURE CONFINED TO THE SRN BAY OF CAMPECHE. INCREASING SLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR THE NWD RETURN OF A MODIFIED GULF AIR MASS...WITH DEWPOINTS INCREASING THROUGH THE 50S FROM THE COAST INLAND. DESPITE CONSIDERABLE COOLING ALOFT...IT APPEARS THAT THE MARGINAL MOISTURE RETURN AND MODEST LAPSE RATES WILL TEND TO LIMIT INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES AOB 500 J/KG. ELEVATED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN PROGRESS OR DEVELOPING AT THE ONSET OF THE FORECAST PERIOD OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY AS STRONGER DEEP-LAYER FORCING BEGINS OVERSPREADING WRN EDGE OF RETURNING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME PROGRESSIVELY MORE SURFACE-BASED BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON OWING TO BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING AND RESULTANT DESTABILIZATION. THESE STORMS WILL THEN MOVE/DEVELOP EWD ACROSS ERN LA...MS AND AL SATURDAY AND INTO FL...GA AND SC SATURDAY NIGHT. DESPITE INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR AND LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT...IT APPEARS THAT THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL BE THE PRIMARY FACTOR LIMITING THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA. NONETHELESS...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SOME EMBEDDED BOWING OR LEWP STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO. SHOULD OBSERVATIONAL DATA AND/OR LATER NWP GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT INSTABILITY WILL BE STRONGER THAN IS CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...AN UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK MAY BE REQUIRED IN SUBSEQUENT DAY ONE OUTLOOKS. ..MEAD.. 12/23/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Dec 23 17:29:35 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Fri, 23 Dec 2005 12:29:35 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200512231728.jBNHSJqO014658@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 231726 SWODY2 SPC AC 231725 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1125 AM CST FRI DEC 23 2005 VALID 241200Z - 251200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE MLB 30 S AGR 45 WSW FMY ...CONT... 30 S GLS 40 W POE 40 ENE SHV 50 NE PBF 25 NE MEM 45 N HSV 50 E CHA 35 ESE AND 20 NE OGB 45 ESE CHS. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SERN STATES... A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS WILL AMPLIFY AND DIG QUICKLY SEWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY TONIGHT. THE NAM AND GFS SOLUTIONS NOW AGREE WITH CLOSING THE SYSTEM OFF LATE TONIGHT OVER THE OZARK PLATEAU. IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING SYSTEM...A COLD FRONT WILL ORGANIZE TONIGHT IN THE SRN PLAINS AND SWEEP EWD ACROSS THE OZARKS AND LOWER MS VALLEY SATURDAY MORNING. MULTIPLE LINES OF STORMS MAY BE ONGOING JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE MORNING. STRONG SLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ADVECT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NWD INTO LA...MS AND AL DURING THE DAY. SFC DEWPOINTS IN NRN GULF ARE CURRENTLY IN THE 55 TO 65 F RANGE AND THIS AIR SHOULD ADVECT AS FAR NWD AS CNTRL MS AND CNTRL AL BY EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS SFC TEMPS WARM SATURDAY...REINTENSIFICATION OF THE CONVECTIVE LINES OR THE INITIATION OF NEW STORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT APPEARS LIKELY. ALTHOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON SHOW ADEQUATE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES FOR SEVERE CONVECTION...INSTABILITY SHOULD BE THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR SEVERE. THE GREATEST LIFT/INSTABILITY/SHEAR COMBINATIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN SRN MS AND SRN AL IN THE LATE AFTERNOON WHERE SMALL HAIL AND ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. DUE TO THE BAND OF VERY STRONG ASCENT...MULTIPLE LINE SEGMENTS SHOULD REFORM OR CONTINUE EWD ACROSS SRN AL...SWRN GA AND THE FL PANHANDLE DURING THE EVENING. AS INSTABILITY WEAKENS OVERNIGHT...ANY MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH. ..BROYLES.. 12/23/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Dec 28 05:46:53 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Wed, 28 Dec 2005 00:46:53 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200512280548.jBS5mW4K030477@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 280546 SWODY2 SPC AC 280544 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1144 PM CST TUE DEC 27 2005 VALID 291200Z - 301200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 ESE CHS 15 ENE CRE 20 S GSB 45 SSE NHK NEL 10 NW ISP 30 SSW ORH 15 WNW PSM 10 W PWM 20 S AUG 60 SSE BHB. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVE WAVE TRAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TWO PERIOD FROM THE ERN PACIFIC INTO THE WRN ATLANTIC. STRONG...MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN U.S. THURSDAY MORNING WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NEWD OFF THE COAST WHILE NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH INTENSIFIES OVER THE PLAINS. MEANWHILE IN THE W...ANOTHER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE PACIFIC NW COAST FRIDAY MORNING. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTERN TROUGH /INITIALLY OVER ERN VA/ WILL DEVELOP NEWD TO VICINITY OF THE ME COAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. OVER THE PLAINS...PRIMARY SURFACE LOW WILL SHIFT EWD ACROSS SD WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHING SEWD OUT OF NRN HIGH PLAINS. FARTHER TO THE S...SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP SEWD FROM THE TX PNHDL INTO NRN TX. ...NC COAST TO NEW ENGLAND COAST... NOCTURNAL CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD NEAR SURFACE LOW SWD ALONG COLD FRONT FROM SERN VA INTO ERN NC. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE OFF SHORE QUICKLY THURSDAY MORNING. OTHER ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND N OF SURFACE LOW TRACK WHERE STRONG...DEEP-LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE COLOCATED WITH WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY. ELSEWHERE...AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY OVER THE CNTRL ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS IN ASSOCIATION WITH MID-LEVEL COLD POOL /I.E. -24 TO -28 C AT 500 MB/ AND RESULTANT STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. PRIMARY ZONE OF FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH PARENT MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO HAVE SHIFTED EWD INTO THE PLAINS AT THIS TIME...THUS AREAL COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN QUITE LIMITED. OTHER ISOLATED LIGHTNING ACTIVITY MAY ALSO APPROACH THE PACIFIC NW COAST LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD IN ASSOCIATION WITH NEXT TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE ERN PACIFIC. HERE TOO...COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN QUITE LIMITED AND NO THUNDER AREA WILL BE INCLUDED. ..MEAD.. 12/28/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Dec 28 17:36:27 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Wed, 28 Dec 2005 12:36:27 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200512281738.jBSHc674002733@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 281735 SWODY2 SPC AC 281734 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1134 AM CST WED DEC 28 2005 VALID 291200Z - 301200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE CHS 45 S FAY 25 E RZZ 25 SE DOV NEL 15 SW BDR 10 ENE BDL 30 SSW CON 15 SW PWM 30 SSW BGR 45 NNW EPM. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... AN ACTIVE WAVE TRAIN WILL CONTINUE COAST-TO-COAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS ROBUST SHORT WAVE TROUGHS SPREAD INLAND FROM THE PACIFIC AND PROGRESS EAST ACROSS THE CONUS. THE LEADING IMPULSE DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD WAS SPINNING OVER THE MIDWEST. THIS CYCLONE WILL MAKE STEADY NEWD PROGRESS FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES TO THE COAST OF MAINE THURSDAY. AS PRIMARY SURFACE LOW UNDERGOES OCCLUSION ACROSS WRN NY...SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR NEAR DELMARVA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE SECONDARY LOW WILL THEN TRACK ALONG COASTAL BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM NJ SHORE TO THE GULF OF MAINE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES EAST INTO THE WRN ATLANTIC. THE NEXT UPSTREAM WAVE WAS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST. STRONG HEIGHT FALLS WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WILL SPREAD EAST FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS DURING THE PERIOD AS PRIMARY LEE-SIDE SURFACE LOW TAKES FORM OVER THE DAKOTAS. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL SURGE OUT OF THE HIGH PLAINS AND SEWD ACROSS THE SCNTRL AND SRN PLAINS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. LASTLY...AFTER A BRIEF RESPITE FROM HEAVY PRECIPITATION ALONG THE WEST COAST...THE NEXT STRONG PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO INFLUENCE COASTAL AREAS FROM NRN CA TO WA BY FRIDAY MORNING. ...EAST COAST... DEEP-LAYER BAROCLINIC BAND WITHIN ERN QUADRANT OF POTENT UPPER TROUGH SHOULD MOVE STEADILY OFFSHORE FROM VA TO SC THROUGH NOON. RESIDUAL INSTABILITY WITHIN THIS ZONE OF STRONG ASCENT COULD FUEL SCATTERED TSTMS BEFORE SUBSIDENCE AND COOLER/DRIER AIR MASS SPREADS ACROSS THESE AREAS THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY. MEANWHILE...LOW LEVEL JET WILL INTENSIFY OVER THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS COINCIDENT WITH SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS NEAR DELMARVA. THIS PROCESS WILL ENHANCE ASCENT ACROSS COASTAL BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM LONG ISLAND TO SERN NEW ENGLAND. LIFT WILL FURTHER INTENSIFY ACROSS THESE AREAS THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS NNEWD. UNUSUALLY WARM/MOIST AIR MASS BEING ENTRAINED INTO THE LARGER SCALE SYSTEM SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST MARGINAL INSTABILITY FROM ERN NJ NEWD TO COASTAL MAINE. SCATTERED TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF THE COASTAL FRONT AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW. ...ROCKIES... ISOLATED TSTMS COULD DEVELOP NEAR THE NEXT STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CO/WY MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN TOO LIMITED TO SUPPORT ANYTHING MORE THAN ISOLATED AND SHORT-LIVED CONVECTION. ANTICIPATED LIGHTNING COVERAGE DOES NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT AN OUTLOOK AREA AT THIS TIME. ..CARBIN.. 12/28/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Dec 29 05:29:07 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Thu, 29 Dec 2005 00:29:07 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200512290530.jBT5UkIV024565@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 290528 SWODY2 SPC AC 290527 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1127 PM CST WED DEC 28 2005 VALID 301200Z - 311200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW PIB 25 WSW GLH 55 SSW JBR 35 SSW LOZ 20 WSW TRI GSP 50 SSE AHN 25 SSE SEM 35 WNW PIB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 NNW UIL 25 SE HQM 25 ENE SLE 10 NE MFR 30 ENE ACV 80 SSW EKA. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... ACTIVE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TWO PERIOD WITH PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST BEING MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WILL TRANSLATE EWD FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND SWD THROUGH THE OH/TN VALLEYS BY SATURDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE IN THE W...NEXT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ONTO THE PACIFIC NW COAST. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...PRIMARY SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE PLAINS TROUGH WILL DEVELOP GENERALLY EWD FROM THE MID MO VALLEY INTO THE SRN GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE MS VALLEY...LIKELY EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER OH VALLEY SWWD INTO THE CNTRL GULF COAST BY 31/12Z. ...LOWER MS VALLEY/GULF COAST INTO TN VALLEY... LATEST SHORT TERM-MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN SUGGESTING THAT STRONGEST LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AND STEEPEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE MID MS/OH AND TN VALLEY DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. DESPITE RETURNING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF SYSTEM COLD FRONT...THESE DATA INDICATE THAT INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN QUITE LIMITED OWING TO POOR LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER...GIVEN CURRENT BUOY OBSERVATIONS OVER THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO E AND SE OF BRO...IT APPEARS THAT WRN EXTENSION OF COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE GULF HAS STALLED WITH DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE LOW/MID 60S. THEREFORE...THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT THIS MODEL GUIDANCE MAY BE UNDERESTIMATING THE QUALITY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH WILL BE ABLE TO RETURN NEWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND GULF COAST STATES. CURRENTLY...ONLY A GENERAL THUNDER AREA HAS BEEN INCLUDED OWING TO RELATIVELY STRONG AND PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT WITHIN SYSTEM WARM CONVEYOR BELT WHICH SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND SUBSEQUENT TSTM DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...SEVERE PROBABILITIES MAY BECOME NECESSARY IN SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS SHOULD IT BECOME APPARENT THAT MORE INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP THAN IS CURRENTLY FORECAST. ...PACIFIC NW COAST... INCREASED LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AND STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE COAST MAY SUPPORT WEAK INSTABILITY AND ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT. ..MEAD.. 12/29/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Dec 29 17:09:48 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Thu, 29 Dec 2005 12:09:48 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200512291711.jBTHBPlQ022721@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 291709 SWODY2 SPC AC 291708 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1108 AM CST THU DEC 29 2005 VALID 301200Z - 311200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNW UIL 15 SE HQM 50 SSE OTH 20 ESE CEC 45 S EKA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW PIB 25 WSW GLH 55 SSW JBR 35 SSW LOZ 20 WSW TRI GSP 50 SSE AHN 25 SSE SEM 35 WNW PIB. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... THE PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL PERSIST INTO FRI ACROSS THE COUNTRY. AS THE UPPER SYSTEM CROSSING NEW ENGLAND EXITS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE CNTRL/NRN ROCKIES WILL TRANSLATE INTO THE PLAINS EARLY FRI AND INTO THE OH/TN VLYS BY EARLY SATURDAY. A THIRD DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE PAC NW COAST FRI NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE PLAINS DISTURBANCE WILL DEVELOP EWD FROM NEB ACROSS THE CORN BELT FRI AFTN...REACHING THE CNTRL GRTLKS REGION BY 12Z SAT. THE TRAILING FRONT WILL SWEEP EWD ACROSS THE PLAINS...THE OH...MS AND TN VLYS FRI AFTN AND INTO THE DEEP S/SERN STATES BY EARLY SAT. ...LOWER MS VALLEY/GULF COAST INTO TN VALLEY... RETURN FLOW HAS ALREADY BEGUN ACROSS THE WRN GULF BASIN/SRN PLAINS AHEAD OF THE CNTRL/NRN ROCKIES MID-LEVEL IMPULSE. AS THIS IMPULSE MOVES INTO THE PLAINS...THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND FRI ACROSS THE ERN PLAINS AND MS VLY. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK FARTHER N THAN THE PREVIOUS DISTURBANCE AND THE STRONGEST LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS/ASCENT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GRTLKS AND OH/TN VLYS. THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE ASCENT WILL LIKELY BRUSH NRN EXTENT OF THE MOISTURE AXIS AND TSTM PROBABILITIES WILL LIKELY INCREASE FRI NIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF THE TN VLY. GIVEN THAT STRONGER ASCENT/STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LARGELY SPREAD N OF THE REGION...IT APPEARS THAT SEVERE TSTM PROBABILITIES WILL REMAIN LOW. ...PACIFIC NW COAST... STEEPENING LAPSE RATES SPREADING INLAND IN THE POST-FRONTAL REGIME MAY SUPPORT ISOLD TSTMS ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF WA/ORE AND NRN CA VERY LATE FRI NIGHT. ..RACY.. 12/29/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Dec 30 06:06:39 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Fri, 30 Dec 2005 01:06:39 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200512300608.jBU68AxL012513@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 300605 SWODY2 SPC AC 300604 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1204 AM CST FRI DEC 30 2005 VALID 311200Z - 011200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE BLI 25 ESE PDX MFR MHS RNO NFL 30 NNW ENV SLC BCE SGU NID BFL 60 WNW MRY. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... MODELS SUGGEST LITTLE CHANGE TO THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. AN INTENSE ZONAL UPPER JET WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE MID LATITUDE PACIFIC...WITH THE PRIMARY BELT OF WESTERLIES...IN SPLIT DOWNSTREAM FLOW...EXTENDING IN MORE OR LESS ZONAL FASHION ACROSS THE UNITED STATES. EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS REGIME...ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE IMPULSES...EMANATING FROM THE PACIFIC JET...IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS RAPIDLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PACIFIC COAST INTO THE GREAT BASIN SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY. DOWNSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH HAS ALREADY ADVANCED INTO THE CENTRAL STATES....BUT WILL BECOME LESS PROGRESSIVE AS IT AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. HOWEVER...THIS FEATURE IS STILL PROGGED TO ADVANCE EASTWARD INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY BY 12Z SATURDAY...THEN ACROSS NORTHERN/MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS BY 12Z SUNDAY. GIVEN ONLY A NARROW WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR AIR MASS MODIFICATION/DESTABILIZATION IN WAKE OF A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALREADY PROGRESSING OFF ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ASSOCIATED WITH IMMEDIATE UPSTREAM SYSTEM SEEMS LIKELY TO REMAIN LIMITED ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN STATES. CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER/PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE WEST...AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM...LIKELY WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AS WELL. HOWEVER...MID-LEVEL COOLING/FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT AREAS OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. ...PACIFIC COAST STATES INTO INTERMOUNTAIN WEST... A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING EARLY SATURDAY ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST...AIDED BY MODERATELY STRONG MOIST ONSHORE FLOW. THOUGH ONSHORE FLOW IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN...POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY TO THE WEST OF THE CASCADES...AS MID-LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH PROGRESSES INLAND. FARTHER SOUTH...MID-LEVEL COOLING/LIFT IN THE EXIT REGION OF A STRONG JET STREAK MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY...PERHAPS THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE SIERRA NEVADA. THOUGH VEERING LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS WITH HEIGHT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR...WEAK INSTABILITY DUE TO LITTLE OR NO SURFACE HEATING CURRENTLY SEEMS LIKELY TO PRECLUDE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS. ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP INTO PARTS OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY BY EARLY SATURDAY EVENING...POSSIBLY INTO THE GREAT BASIN LATER SATURDAY NIGHT. ...SOUTHEAST... MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE/DRYING IS PROGGED TO OVERSPREAD LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNING TO THE EASTERN GULF/SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES BY EARLY SATURDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER INLAND AREAS. HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD PERSIST NEAR FRONT OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO...WITH BETTER POTENTIAL DEVELOPING LATER IN THE DAY...OFF SOUTH ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS. ..KERR.. 12/30/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Dec 30 17:27:27 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Fri, 30 Dec 2005 12:27:27 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200512301728.jBUHSv26000587@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 301727 SWODY2 SPC AC 301726 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1126 AM CST FRI DEC 30 2005 VALID 311200Z - 011200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE BLI 25 ESE PDX MFR 10 S MHS 50 NNW RNO 20 SW WMC 45 NNW ENV 15 SE OGD 30 NW PUC 15 WNW 4HV 25 SSE BCE SGU 35 NNW NID 40 WNW BFL 20 WNW PRB 60 W MRY. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL QUICKLY MOVE NEWD INTO NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...A STRONGER IMPULSE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE CA/PAC NW EARLY SATURDAY THEN INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/GRT BASIN BY 12Z SUNDAY. ...CNTRL VLYS OF CA... FRONTAL BAND ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG UPPER WAVE IS EXPECTED TO REACH NRN CA AND THE BAY AREA MID-MORNING SATURDAY...THEN SWEEP SEWD ACROSS CNTRL CA BY EVENING. BEHIND THE FRONT...ONSHORE WLY FLOW WILL ADVECT MID 50S DEW POINTS INTO THE VLYS BENEATH STEEPENING MID-TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES...CONTRIBUTING TO A DESTABILIZING AIR MASS DURING THE AFTN/EVENING /MLCAPES 250-500 J PER KG/. MAGNITUDE OF THE BUOYANCY COUPLED WITH THE MAINTENANCE OF CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SCATTERED TSTMS...PRIMARILY DURING PEAK HEATING. MORE ROBUST UPDRAFTS MAY TEND TO EXHIBIT BRIEF SUPERCELL STRUCTURES GIVEN 60-80 KTS OF VERTICAL SHEAR AND ISOLD LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. ISOLD TORNADOES MAY ALSO OCCUR AS THE NEAR-SURFACE FLOW SHOULD REMAIN BACKED IN THE VLYS...AUGMENTING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. LATER OUTLOOKS WILL NEED TO CONSIDER A CATEGORICAL SLGT RISK IF PROJECTED THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES APPEAR/BECOME FAVORABLE FOR MORE NUMEROUS TSTMS. ..RACY.. 12/30/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Dec 31 17:49:07 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Sat, 31 Dec 2005 12:49:07 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200512311750.jBVHom2H028386@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 311748 SWODY2 SPC AC 311747 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1147 AM CST SAT DEC 31 2005 VALID 011200Z - 021200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NE MKL 20 SSE PAH 25 ENE OWB 10 E SDF 20 W LEX 40 WNW LOZ 30 N CSV 10 WSW CSV CHA 25 S RMG ANB 15 N BHM 35 E TUP 25 N TUP 10 NE MKL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSW 7R4 40 SSW HEZ 20 WSW MEM 20 NE POF 30 SSE UIN 15 NNW IRK 10 WNW OXV 20 SSW ALO 25 WNW DBQ 25 ENE RFD JXN 35 N CLE 10 NE YNG 15 ENE PIT 20 SW MGW 50 ENE CRW 10 W BLF 50 N HKY HKY 10 ESE CLT 35 NNE FLO 35 SSE FAY 10 NE ILM 45 ESE ILM ...CONT... 30 ENE DAB 60 S CTY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNE UIL 20 SSE AST 30 ESE OTH 45 ESE CEC 45 SE EKA UKI 50 NNW SFO 10 SSE SFO 20 NW MRY 50 SSW MRY. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF KY AND THE TN VALLEY AREA LATE SUNDAY OR EARLY MONDAY... ...SYNOPSIS... AN ACTIVE AND VERY PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THE CONUS INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE NEW YEAR AS INCESSANT SERIES OF INTENSE PACIFIC DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD AND INLAND. PRIMARY DISTURBANCE OF CONCERN FOR SUNDAY WILL MOVE ACROSS NRN CA AND INTO THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST/ROCKIES THROUGH TONIGHT. A BROAD BAND OF 80-100KT MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL ACCOMPANY THIS IMPULSE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND RESULT IN LARGE SCALE TROUGH AMPLIFICATION OVER THE GREAT PLAINS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG LEE-SIDE CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AND THE LOW CENTER WILL LIKELY TRACK FROM THE MO VALLEY ACROSS THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. ...NCNTRL GULF COAST TO LOWER OH VALLEY... BROAD WARM SECTOR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND EXPAND FROM LOWER MS VALLEY TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY THROUGH LATE SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW. LARGE SCALE PATTERN AMPLIFICATION AND PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND EXISTENCE OF MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ALREADY IN PLACE CLOSE TO THE CNTRL GULF COAST...WILL SUPPORT A STRONG INLAND INFLUX OF 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY ACROSS THE TN VALLEY THROUGH LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS TO OVER 50KT ACROSS THESE AREAS. GIVEN MODEST INHIBITION ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR...INITIAL ELEVATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY TO OCCUR NORTH AND EAST OF THE WARM FRONT WHERE SLOPED ASCENT AND MOISTENING WILL ALLOW PARCELS TO OVERCOME WEAKER INHIBITION FROM IND/OH SEWD ACROSS THE SRN APPALACHIANS. SOME OF THIS CONVECTION COULD POSE A THREAT OF HAIL. GIVEN MODEST UPSTREAM DESTABILIZATION/LAPSE RATES. INCREASINGLY INTENSE UPPER FORCING FOR ASCENT BENEATH STRONGLY DIFFLUENT EXIT REGION OF MID LEVEL JET WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD LEADING EDGE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS PARTS OF THE TN VALLEY AFTER DARK. THIS PROCESS COULD SUPPORT AN INCREASING RISK OF NEAR SURFACE-BASED TSTM DEVELOPMENT AS RESIDUAL CAPPING INVERSION/INHIBITION IS ELIMINATED. GFS...AND TO A SLIGHTLY LESSER EXTENT THE NAM...BOTH APPEAR TO SUGGEST CONVECTION BACKBUILDING ACROSS PARTS OF KY AND THE TN VALLEY AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IN ADDITION TO VERY STRONG EFFECTIVE BULK LAYER SHEAR APPROACHING 60KT ACROSS THESE AREAS...WARM FRONT WILL FURTHER PROVIDE A FAVORABLE FOCUS FOR SUPERCELLS IN A STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. GIVEN ANTICIPATED MAGNITUDE OF LARGE SCALE FORCING...AND PROXIMITY OF WARM SECTOR AIRMASS WITH LOW 60S DEWPOINTS AND MLCAPE OF AT LEAST 500 J/KG...EXPECT POTENTIALLY VIGOROUS ROTATING STORMS WITH A CHANCE FOR LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY EVEN A COUPLE OF TORNADOES INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. ..CARBIN.. 12/31/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Dec 1 06:10:36 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Thu, 01 Dec 2005 01:10:36 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200512010608.jB168uL1009391@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 010607 SWODY2 SPC AC 010606 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1206 AM CST THU DEC 01 2005 VALID 021200Z - 031200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNW CLM 25 ESE CLM SLE 50 SE OTH 50 WNW 4BK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM BIH TPH 55 ESE ELY U28 CEZ 40 WNW GUP IGM NID 65 NW NID BIH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ESE CRP UTS MLU MEI GZH 25 NE CEW 45 WSW AAF. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... POLAR LOW IS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA...WITH A SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE...EMANATING FROM THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC...NOW ACCELERATING WELL TO ITS SOUTH/EAST. REINFORCING COLD INTRUSION INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL STATES IS ONGOING WITH LATTER FEATURE...WHICH IS PROGGED RAPIDLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST LATER TODAY/TONIGHT...SUPPORTING INITIATION OF CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE NORTH ATLANTIC COAST. DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE IS PROGGED TO LIFT ACROSS MAINE INTO QUEBEC...WHERE NEW MID LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL BECOME MORE PROMINENT. MODELS SUGGEST UPSTREAM LOW WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SHEARED ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA...BUT ANOTHER SHORT WAVE EMANATING FROM THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WILL SUPPORT YET ANOTHER REINFORCING COLD SURGE IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. MODELS ALSO INDICATE THAT THIS SHORT WAVE...AND UPSTREAM IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONGER BELTS OF WESTERLIES OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL PACIFIC...WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY WEAK SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG FRONTAL ZONE FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY. ...EAST OF THE ROCKIES... WITH COLD AIR ENTRENCHED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN U.S... AND LEE CYCLOGENESIS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MINIMAL. LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO THE SOUTH/EAST OF DEVELOPING LOW WILL MAINTAIN A SIGNIFICANT WESTERLY COMPONENT...BUT A LIMITED RETURN FLOW OF GULF MOISTURE SEEMS LIKELY INTO PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A CAPPING ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WILL ADVECT EASTWARD OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS....AND RELATIVELY WARM MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT DOWNSTREAM OF DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH WILL PROVIDE FURTHER INHIBITION. THUS...PROBABILITIES FOR THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LOW UNTIL AT LEAST THE VERY END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...MORE LIKELY AFTER 12Z SATURDAY. ...SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN... MOISTENING ASSOCIATED WITH IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN SOUTHERN BRANCH OF POLAR WESTERLIES IS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. AS UPPER TROUGH GRADUALLY AMPLIFIES...MID-LEVEL COOLING SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY FRIDAY EVENING. ...PACIFIC NORTHWEST... WEAK TO MODERATE MOIST ONSHORE FLOW IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE...WITH COLD CORE OF UPPER TROUGH SLOW TO MIGRATE INLAND. THIS WILL MAINTAIN FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR CONVECTION...INCLUDING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG COASTAL AREAS. ..KERR.. 12/01/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Dec 1 17:16:49 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Thu, 01 Dec 2005 12:16:49 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200512011715.jB1HF6jE005738@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 011713 SWODY2 SPC AC 011712 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1112 AM CST THU DEC 01 2005 VALID 021200Z - 031200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N UIL 25 NNE HQM 30 NW SLE 20 E OTH 50 WNW 4BK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM BIH TPH 55 ESE ELY U28 CEZ 40 WNW GUP IGM NID 65 NW NID BIH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSE LBX 15 ENE UTS 40 N LFK 30 ESE TXK 15 N PBF 25 SW DYR 10 ENE MKL 45 SSE MKL 20 WNW TUP 25 ESE GWO 20 NNE JAN 15 S JAN 35 W PIB 30 S PIB 15 NNW MOB 35 ENE MOB 10 ESE PNS 55 SSE PNS. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LESS AMPLIFIED AND PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE CONUS IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO NRN NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. IN THE WEST...A NUMBER OF LOW-AMPLITUDE PERTURBATIONS WITHIN FAST ZONAL FLOW REGIME WILL PRODUCE A BROAD REGION OF WEAK HEIGHT FALLS FROM THE GREAT BASIN TO THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. LEE-SIDE CYCLOGENESIS IS FCST TO OCCUR OVER ERN CO AIDED BY LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS AND STRONG ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. SOME POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SCATTERED/SPORADIC LIGHTNING STRIKES AS MID LEVEL WAVE MOVES FROM SRN GREAT BASIN TO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA DURING THE DAY. ADDITIONALLY...STRENGTHENING WARM CONVEYOR BELT AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING LOW/TROUGH...FROM THE NWRN GULF COAST NEWD TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...COULD AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED ELEVATED TSTMS IN WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. ELSEWHERE...MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST BENEATH COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR CONVECTION WITH SOME CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TSTMS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE. ..CARBIN.. 12/01/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Dec 2 06:00:57 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Fri, 02 Dec 2005 01:00:57 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200512020559.jB25xEAc012452@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 020556 SWODY2 SPC AC 020555 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1155 PM CST THU DEC 01 2005 VALID 031200Z - 041200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW CHA 30 SE CHA 20 SSE RMG 30 SE BHM 40 NNE MEI 30 NNW HEZ 40 SSW MLU 45 S ELD 15 NE ELD 25 N UOX 40 N MSL 30 NW CHA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WSW POE 30 E CRS 10 SSE DEQ 45 ENE MKL 25 SE LOZ 25 NW RDU 25 SSE FAY 20 WSW AGS 10 W AUO 30 NNW PIB 40 WSW POE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE TN AND LWR MS VLYS... ...SYNOPSIS... FAST...LARGELY ZONAL FLOW WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASED AMPLIFICATION ON SATURDAY AS COMPLEX TROUGH NOW ENTERING THE NWRN STATES REDEVELOPS E/SE ACROSS THE GRT BASIN/RCKYS. A SERIES OF WEAK IMPULSES...NONE OF WHICH APPEAR PARTICULARLY NOTEWORTHY IN SATELLITE IMAGERY ATTM...WILL SWEEP E/NE FROM THE SRN PLNS INTO THE TN VLY AND CNTRL APPALACHIANS DURING THE PERIOD. SURFACE WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD DISTURBANCE SHOULD BE OVER CNTRL OK EARLY SATURDAY...AND SHOULD TRACK ENE INTO SRN VA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. ...LWR MS/TN VLYS... INCREASING WSWLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL CARRY AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER /EML/ PLUME ENE ACROSS THE LWR MS VLY/GULF CST STATES ON SATURDAY. AN AREA OF ELEVATED CONVECTION/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE PRESENT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD OVER PARTS OF TN/MS...IN REGION OF MAXIMUM UPLIFT ON NERN EDGE OF EML WHERE LIFT IS MAXIMIZED N OF WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH OK SURFACE WAVE. THIS ACTIVITY MAY INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY AND SPREAD ENE INTO PARTS OF AL...ERN TN AND GA LATER IN THE DAY AS LLJ STRENGTHENS AND CONTINUES TO MOISTEN. SUFFICIENT ELEVATED CAPE MAY DEVELOP TO YIELD A FEW STORMS WITH HAIL. ADDITIONAL...POSSIBLE SURFACE-BASED STORMS MAY DEVELOP W OR WSWWD ACROSS NRN/CNTRL MS...AND PERHAPS SRN AR/NRN LA...LATER SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT AS APPROACH OF COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH PASSING SURFACE WAVE ENHANCES LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACROSS REGION. AMPLE /40+ KT/ DEEP WLY SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT FOR SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS. LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL CHARACTER OF THE SHEAR...EXPECTED DEGREE OF SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY /SBCAPE AOB 1000 J PER KG/ AND NE MOTION OF THE STRONGEST MASS CONVERGENCE INTO THE APPALACHIANS SUGGEST THAT THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS WILL BE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND. ..CORFIDI/RACY.. 12/02/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Dec 3 05:49:48 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Sat, 03 Dec 2005 00:49:48 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200512030548.jB35m0o0010562@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 030546 SWODY2 SPC AC 030545 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1145 PM CST FRI DEC 02 2005 VALID 041200Z - 051200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE 7R4 30 SE LCH 10 NNW LCH 10 N POE 40 NNW ESF 45 E RMG 20 W AND 30 ESE AND 30 WSW CAE 25 SSE AGS 10 NW VDI 40 ENE ABY 15 WNW PNS 10 NW HUM 15 SSE 7R4. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W BRO 25 SW ALI 25 S BAZ 25 W TYR 35 SE HOT 25 NNW TRI 50 SSE WAL ...CONT... 45 ENE JAX 35 NNE CTY 35 S AAF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GULF COAST STATES AND FAR SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS... ...GULF COAST STATES/FAR SRN APPALACHIANS... A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CONUS WILL GRADUALLY DIG SWD INTO THE MID-MS VALLEY DURING THE DAY 2 PERIOD. IN RESPONSE...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SWD ACROSS THE OZARK PLATEAU AND MID-MS VALLEY INTO THE GULF COAST STATES AND SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE LATEST GFS RUN SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE CONCERNING THE TIMING AND POSITION OF THE COLD FRONT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. IT NOW APPEARS THE FRONT WILL MOVE FASTER AND BE POSITIONED FURTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. SFC DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD BE IN THE 60S F WITH SBCAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG BY MIDDAY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ALTHOUGH THE MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS SHOW MINIMAL LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION...SFC HEATING COMBINED WITH STRONG CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON SHOW MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR IN PLACE SUGGESTING A SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST ESPECIALLY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WHEN INSTABILITY SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED. THE EXPECTED SEVERE WEATHER COVERAGE REMAINS UNCERTAIN BUT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE EXISTS TO KEEP A SLIGHT RISK ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MARGINALLY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND THIS COMBINED WITH THE WEAK ASCENT SUGGESTS THAT SEVERE WEATHER COVERAGE MAY REMAIN FAIRLY ISOLATED. ..BROYLES.. 12/03/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Dec 3 17:45:27 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Sat, 03 Dec 2005 12:45:27 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200512031743.jB3Hhff1027184@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 031741 SWODY2 SPC AC 031740 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1140 AM CST SAT DEC 03 2005 VALID 041200Z - 051200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 S LCH 20 WNW LCH 30 W ESF 10 WSW JAN 30 ENE 0A8 20 SE ATL 40 NNW CAE 20 NNW VDI 15 E ABY 50 WSW AAF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W MFE 30 E BAZ 50 WSW TXK 45 SSW MSL 35 W HKY 30 ENE CHO 45 E SBY ...CONT... 45 SE CHS 30 WNW AYS 50 W CTY. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND INTO PARTS OF THE SERN U.S.... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS PERIOD...WITH SLOW AMPLIFICATION OF THIS FEATURE FORECAST TO OCCUR WITH TIME. A BROAD ZONE OF FAST WSWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THE ERN CONUS ALONG LEADING EDGE OF THIS TROUGH. SURFACE LOW -- INITIALLY FORECAST OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS REGION -- IS FORECAST TO MOVE ENEWD OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD. TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE APPALACHIANS WSWWD INTO SERN TX WILL MOVE SLOWLY SEWD THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS THE SERN QUARTER OF THE CONUS. LATE IN THE PERIOD...WEAK CYCLOGENESIS MAY OCCUR ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE SOUTHEAST...WITH WARM SECTOR LIKELY CONFINED TO SRN SC/GA/FL/SRN AL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. ...THE SOUTHEAST/LOWER MS VALLEY REGION... SRN FRINGES OF STRONGEST WSWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN INVOF THE SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHICH WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENTLY-STRONG SHEAR TO SUPPORT A SEVERE THREAT. MAIN QUESTION WITH REGARDS TO DEGREE OF SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO REVOLVE AROUND DEGREE OF FORCING -- AND THUS LIKELIHOOD FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT -- ALONG AND S OF FRONT WHERE GREATEST INSTABILITY IS FORECAST. ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT THE MAIN FORCING MECHANISM FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION/SUSTENANCE WILL BE WARM ADVECTION -- GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE COOL SIDE OF THE ANAFRONTAL-TYPE SURFACE BOUNDARY. WITH INSTABILITY LIKELY TO REMAIN QUITE LIMITED N OF BOUNDARY...ANY HAIL SHOULD REMAIN MARGINALLY-SEVERE AT BEST. IT APPEARS THOUGH THAT CONVECTION WILL BE ONGOING NEAR THE SURFACE FRONT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...AND DAYTIME HEATING OF MOIST WARM-SECTOR AIRMASS MAY EVENTUALLY RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED/NEARLY SURFACE-BASED STORMS JUST TO THE COOL SIDE OF FRONT. WITH GREATER INSTABILITY WITHIN THE FRONTAL ZONE...A THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS MAY EXIST. HOWEVER...WITH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO SURFACE BOUNDARY...LONG-LIVED/WIDESPREAD WIND THREAT APPEARS UNLIKELY EVEN IF SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION IS MORE WIDESPREAD THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN ONLY 15%/SLIGHT RISK FORECAST -- FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION NEWD INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL GA. ..GOSS.. 12/03/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Dec 4 07:04:12 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Sun, 04 Dec 2005 02:04:12 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200512040702.jB472NJU006561@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 040659 SWODY2 SPC AC 040658 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1258 AM CST SUN DEC 04 2005 VALID 051200Z - 061200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E VRB 35 SW APF ...CONT... 40 SSW PNS 10 ESE LGC GSP 20 SSE GSO RZZ 50 E ECG. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SE GA/FL... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS AND THIS TROUGH SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OR MOVE SLOWLY EWD TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A SFC LOW OVER CNTRL/NRN GA EARLY IN THE PERIOD SHOULD DRIFT SLOWLY EWD ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO SERN GA AND THE FL PANHANDLE BY MIDDAY. THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE MORNING DUE TO LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE MID-LEVEL JET AND SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S F. HOWEVER...THE AMOUNT OF DESTABILIZATION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY MAY BE LIMITED DUE TO WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER. A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT MAY STILL DEVELOP DUE TO THE 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES IN THE 40 TO 50 KT SHOWN BY GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS. IF A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT DEVELOPS IT SHOULD BE CONCENTRATED AROUND PEAK HEATING. ...ERN CAROLINAS... EARLY IN THE PERIOD...NAM AND GFS SOLUTIONS SUGGEST A SFC LOW WILL BE IN PLACE IN CNTRL GA WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD ACROSS SC AND SRN NC. AS THE LOW MOVES EWD DURING THE DAY...THE WARM FRONT SHOULD LIFT NWD INTO ERN NC AND THE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF SC. CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP ALONG THESE TWO BOUNDARIES DURING THE AFTERNOON AS DESTABILIZATION OCCURS. GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE IN PLACE SUGGESTING ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY REMAINS HIGHLY QUESTIONABLE. THE VERTICAL SHEAR COMBINED WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW DUE TO A 60 KT LOW-LEVEL JET JUST OFFSHORE MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. IF IT APPEARS SFC DEWPOINTS WILL BE HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST AND CLOUD COVER WILL NOT BE TOO WIDESPREAD ALLOWING FOR STRONGER DESTABILIZATION...AN UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK MIGHT BECOME NECESSARY. ..BROYLES.. 12/04/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Dec 4 17:34:17 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Sun, 04 Dec 2005 12:34:17 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200512041732.jB4HWPbl024829@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 041730 SWODY2 SPC AC 041729 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1129 AM CST SUN DEC 04 2005 VALID 051200Z - 061200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSW BVE 30 S MOB 35 SSW TOI 40 SE CSG 30 SE MCN 15 SSE AYS 10 ESE GNV 45 NNW PIE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S 7R4 30 NE MCB 30 WSW AND 40 WSW SOP RZZ 40 ESE ORF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ERN GULF COAST REGION... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS THE ENTIRE CONUS THIS PERIOD. FAIRLY STRONG SHORT-WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LARGER CYCLONIC FLOW FIELD IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MS/TN VALLEYS THROUGH THE DAY..AND THEN NEWD ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW -- INITIALLY FORECAST OVER GA -- IS FORECAST TO MOVE ENEWD WITH TIME...CLEARING THE CAROLINA COAST DURING THE EVENING. MEANWHILE...TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EWD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY...AND THEN OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST/SWD ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA THROUGH 06/12Z. ...ERN GULF COAST REGION... THOUGH COOL/STABLE NELY FLOW IN DAMMING REGIME E OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL LIMIT ANY NEWD EXPANSION OF WARM SECTOR...MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL EXIST ACROSS SERN AL/SRN GA THE FL PANHANDLE AND PARTS OF NRN FL. MARGINAL DESTABILIZATION OF THIS MOIST WARM SECTOR WILL BEGIN BY MID-MORNING WITH THE ONSET OF LIMITED DAYTIME HEATING. CONVECTION -- LIKELY ONGOING INVOF COLD FRONT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD -- SHOULD INTENSIFY IN CONJUNCTION WITH AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION...AIDED BY FAVORABLY-SHEARED ENVIRONMENT FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION. THOUGH OVERALL SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY BE MODULATED BY THE AMOUNT OF HEATING/DESTABILIZATION WHICH CAN OCCUR...IT APPEARS ATTM THAT DEGREE OF THREAT IS SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK. LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS WITHIN LINEAR BANDS ALONG AND AHEAD OF FRONT. HOWEVER...WITH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS AND A LOW-LEVEL FLOW FIELD FORECAST TO VEER WEAKLY AND INCREASE IN MAGNITUDE WITH HEIGHT...A TORNADO OR TWO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THREAT SHOULD DECREASE WITH TIME INTO THE EVENING AS FRONT MOVES OFF THE SRN ATLANTIC COAST...AND AS INSTABILITY DECREASES ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA AHEAD OF BOUNDARY. ..GOSS.. 12/04/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Dec 5 05:30:07 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Mon, 05 Dec 2005 00:30:07 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200512050528.jB55SHna020954@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 050527 SWODY2 SPC AC 050526 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1126 PM CST SUN DEC 04 2005 VALID 061200Z - 071200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW APF 40 NE PBI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM BRO CRP 45 SE AUS CLL UTS LCH 60 SSE 7R4. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... BELT OF BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT IS EVIDENT ATTM IN UPPER AIR DATA AND MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY...FROM NRN ROCKIES TO 4-CORNERS REGION AND SRN PLAINS...BECOMING NEARLY STRAIGHT SWLY NEWD ACROSS MID ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND REGION. RIDGE CONNECTING PACIFIC LONGWAVE RIDGE WITH BLOCKING HIGH OVER NUNAVUT IS BEING PENETRATED BY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT OVER NERN BC/NWRN ALTA. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO DIG SEWD ACROSS NRN ROCKIES AND EVOLVE INTO MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE OVER CO/WY BY 07/12Z. MEANWHILE...SFC COLD FRONT -- NOW ANALYZED FROM WRN NC SWWD ACROSS S-CENTRAL LA TO VICINITY BRO...IS FCST TO CONTINUE MOVING SEWD ACROSS SERN CONUS...REACHING SRN FL BY BEGINNING OF PERIOD AND STALLING ACROSS CENTRAL GULF. REINFORCING COLD SURGE WILL PRECEDE CENTRAL ROCKIES MIDLEVEL CYCLONE ACROSS SRN PLAINS. ...S FL...EARLY PERIOD... ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING FIRST FEW HOURS OF PERIOD WITH PASSAGE OF SFC COLD FRONT. THIS THUNDER AREA IS MARGINAL...WEAKENING TREND EXPECTED IN BOTH FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND MIDLEVEL INSTABILITY WITH TIME. HOWEVER...BOTH ETA AND ETA-KF FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE LITTLE OR NO CINH FOR EXPECTED SFC PARCELS WITH TEMPS LOW-MID 70S F AND LOW 70S DEW POINTS. UPPER REACHES OF BUOYANT AREAS ASSOCIATED WITH 250-500 J/KG MLCAPES EXTEND INTO FAVORABLE ICE PROCESS ZONES IN THOSE SOUNDINGS. ALREADY MARGINAL THUNDER POTENTIAL WILL BE SHUNTED SWD INTO STRAITS...BAHAMAS AND CUBA THROUGHOUT LATE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON AS BOUNDARY LAYER DRY/COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS PENINSULAR FL. ...TX/LA COASTAL PLAIN...NOCTURNAL... IN RESPONSE TO APCHG CENTRAL ROCKIES LOW...STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA REGIME AND ELEVATED MOISTURE RETURN SHOULD OCCUR AFTER 07/00Z ACROSS NW GULF AND PORTIONS TX/LA COASTAL PLAIN. BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS STILL WILL BE RELATIVELY COOL AND STABLE IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT NOW MOVING SEWD INTO NWRN GULF. HOWEVER...WAA ATOP THAT LAYER SHOULD STEEPEN LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND GENERATE BUOYANCY IN COMBINATION WITH INCREASING MOISTURE ABOVE SFC. ANIMATION OF MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATES RELATED NEAR-SATURATION OF THAT LAYER -- ROUGHLY BETWEEN 850-700 MB -- COULD GENERATE ELEVATED MUCAPES 100-400 J/KG...WITH ONLY A DEGREE OR TWO OF BASAL WARMING/COOLING IN THAT LAYER RESULTING IN LARGE RESPECTIVE INCREASE/DECREASE OF BUOYANCY. ...CENTRAL ROCKIES... VERY COLD AIR ALOFT WILL RESULT IN STEEP LAPSE RATES THROUGH SHALLOW LOWER-MIDTROPOSPHERIC LAYER OVER PORTIONS CO/WY/SERN ID/NERN UT...ESPECIALLY DURING LATE MORNING INTO EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER...BITTER COLD SFC AIR...ASSOCIATED LIMITED MOISTURE...AND VERY WEAK BUOYANCY INDICATE THUNDER POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN MINIMAL. ..EDWARDS.. 12/05/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Dec 5 17:09:08 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Mon, 05 Dec 2005 12:09:08 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200512051707.jB5H7Iku012270@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 051704 SWODY2 SPC AC 051704 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1104 AM CST MON DEC 05 2005 VALID 061200Z - 071200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SW SRQ 45 E MLB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE BRO CRP HDO BWD 10 WSW FTW TYR LCH 70 SSE 7R4. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... DOWNSTREAM OF CONFLUENT BELTS OF POLAR AND SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES ...BROADLY CYCLONIC INTENSE HIGH-LEVEL JET WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD...FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN QUARTER OF THE U.S. INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC. HOWEVER...MODELS SUGGEST STRONGER WEST SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER JET CORE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS/MID ATLANTIC COAST...WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLONE LIFTING AWAY FROM THE MID AND NORTH ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS. ANOTHER STRONG JET STREAK IS PROGGED TO DIG INTO THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE POLAR WESTERLIES. THIS FEATURE IS CURRENTLY NOSING OUT OF BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...AND IS FORECAST INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. IN ASSOCIATION WITH EVOLVING UPPER FLOW REGIME...PRIMARY SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE IS EXPECTED THROUGH ALL AREAS EAST OF THE ROCKIES...EXCEPT THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA/KEYS...BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. WHILE A REINFORCING COLD FRONT SURGES SOUTHWARD TO THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES...A WEAK LOW/WAVE COULD DEVELOP ALONG LEAD BOUNDARY OFF THE SOUTHERN TEXAS COAST BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. ...FLORIDA... RELATIVELY WARM MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND WEAK UPPER FORCING APPEAR LIKELY TO MINIMIZE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...ENHANCED CONVERGENCE NEAR FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA EARLY IN THE DAY MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH... SEEMS TO BE IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BOTH THE EASTERN GULF AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. OTHERWISE...PRE-FRONTAL WIND SHIFT INTO SOUTHEAST COASTAL AREAS COULD BECOME A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE AFTERNOON...BEFORE ADVANCING SOUTHWARD INTO THE KEYS. ...TEXAS... MODIFICATION OF BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND INCREASING WARM ADVECTION REGIME...DOWNSTREAM OF DEVELOPING UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK DESTABILIZATION TUESDAY NIGHT. INSTABILITY/FORCING COULD BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TOWARD 12Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF TEXAS COASTAL WATERS. ELEVATED MOISTURE RETURN WILL OCCUR ABOVE SURFACE-BASED INVERSION LAYER INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST TEXAS...BUT UNCERTAINTY EXISTS CONCERNING STRENGTH OF MID-LEVEL INHIBITION ACROSS THIS REGION THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. ..KERR.. 12/05/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Dec 6 06:05:40 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Tue, 06 Dec 2005 01:05:40 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200512060603.jB663kjS017356@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 060601 SWODY2 SPC AC 060600 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1200 AM CST TUE DEC 06 2005 VALID 071200Z - 081200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S MFE 15 SSE ALI 20 E NIR 30 NNW PSX 20 NNE LBX 35 ESE GLS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 W FMY 15 N APF 40 E FMY 40 SW VRB 45 NE MLB. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS A BAND OF NW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES WITH AN UPPER-TROUGH MOVING SWD THROUGH SRN CANADA. NAM AND GFS SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THE TROUGH WILL CLOSE-OFF OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS BY THE DAY 2 PERIOD HELPING TO REINFORCE THE COLD AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN NLY ACROSS MUCH OF THE SRN HALF OF UNITED STATES...ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY REMAIN IN PLACE ALONG THE LOWER TX COAST AND IN SRN FL FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. CONVECTION WILL BE MOST LIKELY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY TUESDAY EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AS A SFC LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE LOWER TX COAST. MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE AS THE FRONT MOVES SEWD INTO THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE EVENING. ..BROYLES.. 12/06/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Dec 6 17:20:50 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Tue, 06 Dec 2005 12:20:50 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200512061718.jB6HIuco014963@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 061717 SWODY2 SPC AC 061716 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1116 AM CST TUE DEC 06 2005 VALID 071200Z - 081200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 ESE CRP 20 NE PSX 30 N BPT 30 NW BTR PNS AAF 40 SE AAF ...CONT... 50 SSW CTY PIE 55 W FMY. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... COLD AIR AT LOW-LEVELS IS NOW ENTRENCHED ACROSS MUCH OF THE NATION EAST OF THE ROCKIES...WITH A REINFORCING COLD INTRUSION NOW ONGOING IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL SURGE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY...AS STRONG MID/UPPER JET STREAK /NOW DIGGING ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/ NOSES EASTWARD OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THROUGH THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS AND OZARK PLATEAU REGION. UPPER FEATURE WILL SUPPORT EVOLVING CLOSED LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH DOWNSTREAM FLOW...IN BOTH POLAR AND SUBTROPICAL BELTS OF WESTERLIES...BECOMING BROADLY ANTICYCLONIC ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN QUARTER OF THE NATION. ...GULF OF MEXICO INTO SOUTHEASTERN U.S... ISENTROPIC ASCENT...ASSOCIATED WITH BROAD LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME...BENEATH FAVORABLE RIGHT QUADRANT OF UPPER JET ENTRANCE REGION...WILL INCREASE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE GULF STATES DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT INCREASING CLOUD COVER/PRECIPITATION...BUT POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SEEMS MINIMAL INLAND OF IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS DUE TO WEAK LAPSE RATES AND WEAK MOISTURE RETURN. MODIFICATION/MOISTENING OF BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO MAY BECOME SUFFICIENT...HOWEVER...TO SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THIS APPEARS MOST LIKELY NEAR/NORTH THROUGH EAST OF A WEAK WAVE DEVELOPING ON SURFACE FRONT...AS IT PROGRESSES FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY LATE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ..KERR.. 12/06/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Dec 7 06:41:06 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Wed, 07 Dec 2005 01:41:06 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200512070639.jB76dD6x028470@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 070636 SWODY2 SPC AC 070635 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1235 AM CST WED DEC 07 2005 VALID 081200Z - 091200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 S MOB 30 E CEW 40 S MCN 25 ENE AGS 15 NNW FAY 20 WSW ORF 40 ENE WAL. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... A CLOSED LOW OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WILL DIG SEWD REACHING THE MID-MS VALLEY BY THURSDAY. BANDS OF STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL SPREAD NEWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES AS THE THROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION. IN RESPONSE...A SFC LOW WILL TAKE SHAPE IN THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING NWD ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S F ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH SFC HEATING AND LOW-CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE SCATTERED STORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE DAY AS THE RIGHT QUADRANT OF A 100 KT MID-LEVEL JET AFFECTS THE REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR CNTRL FL THURSDAY AFTERNOON SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 50 TO 60 KT WITH STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE 850 TO 700 MB LAYER. THIS COULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT IN THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY CAN MATERIALIZE. WHETHER ENOUGH INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP FOR A SEVERE THREAT REMAINS HIGHLY QUESTIONABLE ATTM. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CONUS...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED. ..BROYLES.. 12/07/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Dec 7 17:31:57 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Wed, 07 Dec 2005 12:31:57 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200512071730.jB7HU4D8021389@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 071724 SWODY2 SPC AC 071723 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1123 AM CST WED DEC 07 2005 VALID 081200Z - 091200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSE LCH JAN TCL AND AVC 20 WSW ORF 60 E ORF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSE MIA 30 N MIA 25 S AGR 55 SSW SRQ. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... COMPLEX SPLIT UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD...WITH BELTS OF POLAR WESTERLIES AND SUBTROPICAL STREAM REMAINING GENERALLY CONFLUENT EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND MEXICAN PLATEAU. IN RESPONSE TO DIGGING UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH...AND PERHAPS ANOTHER DIGGING JET ACROSS NORTHERN MANITOBA/ONTARIO... MODELS SUGGEST CENTRAL PLAINS CLOSED LOW WILL BE FORCED EASTWARD. THIS FEATURE WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SHEARED AS IT ACCELERATES THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MUCH OF THE OHIO VALLEY BY 12Z FRIDAY. FARTHER UPSTREAM...SHORT WAVE DIGGING ALONG THE NORTHERN PACIFIC COAST IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. SYSTEM WILL BECOME CUT-OFF FROM MAIN BELT OF POLAR WESTERLIES...CRESTING NORTHEAST PACIFIC RIDGE INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES...BUT SOME PHASING WITH SUBTROPICAL STREAM MAY OCCUR LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. MEANWHILE...DOWNSTREAM IMPULSE IN SUBTROPICAL STREAM IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY LIFT ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL MEXICAN PLATEAU...TOWARD THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. ...EASTERN STATES... STRONG LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION REGIME WILL OVERSPREAD MOST AREAS FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI/OHIO VALLEYS EASTWARD TO THE ATLANTIC COAST DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...WITH THE GULF OF MEXICO STILL MODIFYING AND MOISTURE LIMITED DUE TO RECENT COLD INTRUSIONS...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY MINIMAL. MODELS DO SUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND MOISTURE RETURN ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL STREAM. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BECOME SUFFICIENTLY STEEP FOR WEAK CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY IN A LAYER...BASED AROUND 700 MB...WITH FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC STRUCTURE FOR LIGHTNING. COVERAGE/PROBABILITIES OF STORMS MAY BE LOWER END...BUT WILL SPREAD FROM THE EASTERN GULF STATES THURSDAY INTO THE SOUTHERN/MID ATLANTIC REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...CLOUD COVER AND RELATIVELY WARM/WARMING MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE AN APPRECIABLE RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS...EXCEPT PERHAPS NEAR FLORIDA COASTAL AREAS. WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER BASED DESTABILIZATION SEEMS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF WEAK SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPING TOWARD THE FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION...AND POSSIBLY ALONG WARM FRONT/CONFLUENT BAND DEVELOPING NEAR EAST CENTRAL COASTAL AREAS. IF THIS OCCURS...SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL WITH RISK OF A TORNADO OR DAMAGING WIND GUST. THIS POTENTIAL SHOULD END THURSDAY EVENING... WITH RISK FOR VIGOROUS CONVECTION DEVELOPING OFF SOUTH ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS. ...WESTERN/CENTRAL STATES... DRY/COOL ENVIRONMENT SHOULD PRECLUDE RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS. ..KERR.. 12/07/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Dec 8 06:47:58 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Thu, 08 Dec 2005 01:47:58 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200512080646.jB86k3ct008550@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 080644 SWODY2 SPC AC 080643 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1243 AM CST THU DEC 08 2005 VALID 091200Z - 101200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW CTY 20 ENE SGJ. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... AT UPPER-LEVELS...A LARGE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CNTRL AND ERN U.S. THROUGH FRIDAY REINFORCING THE COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE NATION. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SWD ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN CNTRL FL AS TEMPS HEAT UP FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL AND NO SEVERE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED. ELSEWHERE...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS NOT ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE CONUS. ..BROYLES.. 12/08/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Dec 8 17:40:05 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Thu, 08 Dec 2005 12:40:05 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200512081738.jB8HcBp4027377@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 081736 SWODY2 SPC AC 081735 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK ISSUED BY AFWA OFFUTT AIR FORCE BASE BELLEVUE NE 1135 AM CST THU DEC 08 2005 VALID 091200Z - 101200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW PIE 40 ESE DAB. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... AT UPPER-LEVELS...A LARGE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CNTRL AND ERN U.S. THROUGH FRIDAY REINFORCING THE COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE NATION. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SWD ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN SRN FL AS TEMPS HEAT UP FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL AND NO SEVERE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED. ELSEWHERE...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS NOT ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE CONUS. ..AFWA.. 12/08/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Dec 9 05:45:19 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Fri, 09 Dec 2005 00:45:19 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200512090543.jB95hOrv014446@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 090540 SWODY2 SPC AC 090539 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1139 PM CST THU DEC 08 2005 VALID 101200Z - 111200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS/FORECAST... REX BLOCK WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH AN ACTIVE JET ARCING FROM THE CANADIAN YUKON TO THE ERN STATES. AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF RIDGING ACROSS THE ERN STATES IN WAKE OF THE DEPARTING DISTURBANCE NOW MOVING ACROSS THE MIDWEST...A SERIES OF JETLETS WILL DIG SEWD FROM CANADA...RESUMING THE EVOLUTION INTO A FULL LATITUDE ERN NOAM TROUGH THIS WEEKEND. CONTINUAL SURGES OF STABLE CP AIR MASSES SEWD INTO THE ERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY WILL KEEP PROBABILITIES FOR TSTMS VERY LOW. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS CNTRL/SRN FL VCNTY AN OLD FRONT THAT WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AFTN. TSTMS APPEAR UNLIKELY GIVEN WEAK MID-TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES AND LACK OF SUBSTANTIAL LARGE SCALE SUPPORT. ..RACY.. 12/09/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Dec 9 17:02:02 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Fri, 09 Dec 2005 12:02:02 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200512091700.jB9H0ArU020706@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 091658 SWODY2 SPC AC 091657 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1057 AM CST FRI DEC 09 2005 VALID 101200Z - 111200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... MODELS SUGGEST BLOCK...WHICH HAS BECOME MORE READILY EVIDENT OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC/WEST COAST STATES DURING THE PAST DAY OR SO... WILL REMAIN STRONG THROUGH AT LEAST THIS FORECAST PERIOD. DOWNSTREAM OF THIS FEATURE...PHASING OF MULTIPLE BELTS OF POLAR WESTERLIES...AND THE SUBTROPICAL STREAM...IS PROGGED LATE TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...LEADING TO THE EVOLUTION OF A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY 12Z SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH EXPANSIVE COLD SURFACE RIDGE...NOW OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL STATES/NORTHERN AND WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WILL WEAKEN BY EARLY SATURDAY...UPPER PATTERN WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER STRENGTHENING SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND MUCH OF THE GULF BY EARLY SUNDAY. ...GULF/SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES... SURFACE WIND SHIFT/SHALLOW COLD SURGE WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF FLORIDA TODAY. HOWEVER...LEADING EDGE OF DEEPER COLD AIR WILL BE SLOWER TO PROGRESS THROUGH THE CENTRAL PENINSULA. MODELS SUGGEST PRIMARY SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL REFORM ACROSS THIS AREA SATURDAY...BECOMING FOCUS FOR POSSIBLE NEW SURFACE WAVE/LOW DEVELOPMENT EAST OF THE FLORIDA ATLANTIC COAST. THOUGH WEAK MID-LEVEL COOLING MAY ACCOMPANY PROGRESSION OF A SUBTROPICAL IMPULSE ACROSS FLORIDA EARLY IN THE PERIOD...INHIBITION DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY TO WEAKEN SUFFICIENTLY FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER INLAND AREAS...GIVEN ONLY SLOW MODIFICATION/MOISTENING OF BOUNDARY LAYER. ..KERR.. 12/09/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Dec 10 06:00:05 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Sat, 10 Dec 2005 01:00:05 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200512100558.jBA5wB7j015578@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 100555 SWODY2 SPC AC 100554 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1154 PM CST FRI DEC 09 2005 VALID 111200Z - 121200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS/FORECAST... DEEP COLD UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD ACROSS ERN NOAM ON SUNDAY AS THE REX BLOCK CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT...A SEASONABLY COLD AIR MASS WILL COVER THE ERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY. AN OLD FRONT ACROSS CNTRL FL WILL BE FORCED SWD INTO THE STRAITS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION GIVEN POOR LAPSE RATES AND WEAK MASS CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT. THE REMAINDER OF THE COUNTRY WILL STAY TOO STABLE TO SUPPORT TSTMS. ..RACY.. 12/10/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Dec 10 16:37:58 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Sat, 10 Dec 2005 11:37:58 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200512101636.jBAGaAtu021098@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 101633 SWODY2 SPC AC 101632 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1032 AM CST SAT DEC 10 2005 VALID 111200Z - 121200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST... AMPLIFIED LARGE-SCALE PATTERN IS FORECAST DURING THE DAY 2 PERIOD...CHARACTERIZED BY A DEEP TROUGH IN THE E AND A SPLIT FLOW /HIGH OVER LOW/ REGIME IN THE W. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...A MOIST BOUNDARY-LAYER /I.E. DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S/ WILL INITIALLY EXIST ACROSS THE SRN FL PENINSULA AHEAD OF A SWD-MOVING COLD FRONT. WHILE IT APPEARS THAT SOME SHALLOW CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG OR IMMEDIATELY BEHIND FRONT...WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE COUPLED WITH POOR LAPSE RATES AND RESULTANT MARGINAL INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT ANY TSTM DEVELOPMENT. ELSEWHERE...AIR MASS WILL REMAIN DRY AND STABLE. ..MEAD.. 12/10/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Dec 11 05:50:11 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Sun, 11 Dec 2005 00:50:11 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200512110548.jBB5mHKu024109@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 110546 SWODY2 SPC AC 110544 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1144 PM CST SAT DEC 10 2005 VALID 121200Z - 131200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS/FORECAST... UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL UNDERGO CHANGES ON MONDAY AS THE REX BLOCK WEAKENS AHEAD OF A STRONG NPAC JET TRANSLATING TOWARD THE CANADIAN PAC COAST. AS A RESULT...THE CUT-OFF SUBTROPICAL LOW OFF SRN CA ATTM WILL SLOWLY EJECT EWD ACROSS THE GRT BASIN BY EARLY TUE AS THE ERN NOAM TROUGH LIFTS NEWD. MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THE SUB-TROPICAL IMPULSE ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS...BUT TSTMS ARE NOT LIKELY GIVEN RIDGING/WARMING ALOFT. ELSEWHERE...TSTMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. ..RACY.. 12/11/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Dec 12 06:05:24 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Mon, 12 Dec 2005 01:05:24 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200512120603.jBC63XMl020597@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 120601 SWODY2 SPC AC 120600 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1200 AM CST MON DEC 12 2005 VALID 131200Z - 141200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSW MRF 30 ESE FST 35 SSW ABI 25 WNW ADM 25 WNW FYV 25 ENE RUE 40 N ELD 35 WSW IER 45 ESE UTS 30 NW LBX 15 NE NIR 45 NW LRD. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... SUBTROPICAL CUT-OFF LOW SITUATED OFF SRN CA IS EXPECTED TO OPEN UP AND EJECT EWD INTO THE GRT BASIN BY LATE MON AS A STRONG NPAC JET/SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. DESPITE PHASING OF THE SUBTROPICAL AND POLAR JETS ON TUE...THE SRN IMPULSE WILL MAINTAIN IDENTITY WITH ITS ASSOCIATED 80+KT H5 JET TRANSLATING ACROSS TX BY 12Z WED. ...CNTRL/ERN TX... SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE OVERALL WEAKENING OF THE REX BLOCK AND SUBSEQUENT ARRIVAL OF THE SHORTWAVE IMPULSE INTO THE SRN PLAINS TUE NIGHT. MUCH OF TUE WILL SEE LARGE SCALE RIDGING AND WARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. INCREASING SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSPORT MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE NWD INTO CNTRL/ERN TX BENEATH THE STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT...BUT SURFACE BASED PARCELS WILL BE CAPPED. AS THE LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH SPREADS EWD AND THE SLY LLJ RESPONDS...GRADUAL MOISTENING OF THE COLUMN WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SOME DESTABILIZATION ALOFT LATE TUE NIGHT ACROSS CNTRL/ERN TX. ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT A WIDESPREAD REGION OF CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP FROM ERN OK/AR SWD INTO CNTRL TX AFTER MIDNIGHT TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED. EMBEDDED STRONGER TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY OVER CNTRL/ERN TX CLOSER TO THE STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ISOLD STORMS MAY BRIEFLY PULSE TO NEAR SEVERE LEVELS WITH HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. ..RACY.. 12/12/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Dec 12 17:05:05 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Mon, 12 Dec 2005 12:05:05 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200512121703.jBCH3G91017675@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 121700 SWODY2 SPC AC 121659 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1059 AM CST MON DEC 12 2005 VALID 131200Z - 141200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW 6R6 65 WSW SJT 35 NNW MWL 20 S BVO 30 SSE SGF 40 W MEM 60 E MLU 30 S ESF 10 NNW LBX 10 SSE LRD. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SRN PLAINS THROUGH LOWER MS VALLEY... A SLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS BY TUESDAY EVENING AS LEE CYCLOGENESIS COMMENCES WITH APPROACH OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE SWRN STATES. OFFSHORE TRAJECTORIES ALONG THE WRN GULF WILL PERSIST UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY. HOWEVER...BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON INCREASING SLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW SHOULD ALLOW PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S TO BEGIN RETURNING NWD THROUGH S AND S CNTRL TX. ONLY MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE MOIST AXIS WITH MUCAPES GENERALLY AOB 500 J/KG. INCREASING ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND THETA-E ADVECTION ACCOMPANYING THE LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM CNTRL/ERN TX NWD INTO ERN OK TUESDAY EVENING. ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD EWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN INSUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A HAIL THREAT. ..DIAL.. 12/12/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Dec 13 06:02:23 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Tue, 13 Dec 2005 01:02:23 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200512130600.jBD60Wik029948@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 130558 SWODY2 SPC AC 130557 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1157 PM CST MON DEC 12 2005 VALID 141200Z - 151200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSE CRP AUS 30 NNE CRS 20 WSW DEQ HOT 50 E PBF 35 E GWO 45 SSW CBM 20 WNW DHN 55 W CTY. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... ADVERTISED PATTERN CHANGE WILL TAKE PLACE TODAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE RETROGRADES TO 140W...FORCING THE NPAC JET NWD INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA. DOWNSTREAM...THE SUBTROPICAL LOW HAS BECOME DISLODGED AND WILL EJECT QUICKLY EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS BY WED EVE WHILE PARTIALLY PHASING WITH THE NRN STREAM. THE NRN STREAM WILL START TO AMPLIFY BY WED NIGHT AS THE EPAC RIDGE MIGRATES TOWARD THE COAST... WITH A SUBSEQUENT EVOLUTION OF A DOWNSTREAM LONGWAVE TROUGH IN THE PLAINS STATES. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT THAT WILL SETTLE SEWD IN WAKE OF THE SUBTROPICAL DISTURBANCE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS SERN TX AND THE LWR MS VLY WED AFTN/EVE. A WEAK LOW WILL FORM ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS SERN TX AND MOVE EWD ACROSS SRN LA BY WED NIGHT. ...SERN TX TO THE LWR MS VLY... CONVECTION ONGOING EARLY WED ACROSS ERN TX IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EWD THROUGH THE DEEP S DURING THE DAY AS A MODEST SSWLY LLJ TRANSLATES EWD IN TANDEM WITH THE EJECTING MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE. TAIL END OF THE WARM CONVEYOR CONVECTION MAY INTENSIFY WED AFTN ACROSS THE UPPER TX COAST AND SRN LA WHERE A WARM SECTOR... CHARACTERIZED BY LOWER 60S DEW POINTS...MAY MOVE ASHORE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. PRESENCE OF 50-60 KTS OF H5 FLOW ATOP THE INCREASINGLY BUOYANT AIR MASS MAY SUPPORT ISOLD SEVERE STORMS AS FAR N AS THE UPPER TX COAST EWD THROUGH SRN LA AND PERHAPS EXTREME SRN MS WED AFTN/EVE. MAIN THREAT WILL BE ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...THOUGH ISOLD TORNADOES MAY OCCUR IF A SUBSTANTIAL WARM SECTOR CAN MOVE ASHORE. ANY SEVERE THREAT THAT MATERIALIZES DURING THE AFTN WILL LIKELY DECREASE RAPIDLY DURING THE EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING...AND FARTHER EWD WHERE RESIDUAL WEDGE LIMITS INSTABILITY EAST OF THE MS RVR. ..RACY.. 12/13/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Dec 13 17:39:08 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Tue, 13 Dec 2005 12:39:08 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200512131737.jBDHbK66029144@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 131735 SWODY2 SPC AC 131734 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1134 AM CST TUE DEC 13 2005 VALID 141200Z - 151200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NE BRO 40 SE COT 30 WSW AUS ACT TYR 25 NNE SHV 50 ENE MLU JAN MAI 55 W CTY. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... AS AN AMPLIFIED EASTERN U.S. TROUGH BEGINS TO SHIFT AWAY FROM THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD...INTERACTING IMPULSES...EMBEDDED WITHIN BELTS OF WESTERLIES DOWNSTREAM OF EASTERN PACIFIC BLOCK...ARE ALREADY CONTRIBUTING TO THE EVOLUTION OF ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL STATES. PERHAPS OF MOST SIGNIFICANCE TO THIS PROCESS IS A VIGOROUS JET STREAK/SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN NORTHERN BRANCH OF POLAR WESTERLIES...NOW DIGGING IN THE LEE OF THE CANADIAN/NORTHERN U.S. ROCKIES. MODELS SUGGEST THIS FEATURE WILL PROGRESS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATER TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BEFORE DEVELOPING INTO A BROAD CLOSED LOW BY 12Z THURSDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...A STRONG MID/UPPER JET...ASSOCIATED WITH BOTH THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF POLAR WESTERLIES AND THE SUBTROPICAL STREAM...IS PROGGED TO NOSE EAST OF THE LOWER LATITUDE EASTERN PACIFIC...INTO/THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/PARTS OF LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. IN RESPONSE TO EVOLVING PATTERN...ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR IS PROGGED IN THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES. LEADING EDGE OF THIS INTRUSION SEEMS LIKELY TO ADVANCE THROUGH WESTERN/ CENTRAL GULF COASTAL AREAS BY LATE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT... WITH COLD AIR ALREADY DAMMED IN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS...ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES...SLOW TO MODIFY. THUS DESPITE ONGOING MODIFICATION OF AIR MASS OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...POTENTIAL FOR BOUNDARY LAYER-BASED DESTABILIZATION AND CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD SEEMS LOW...AND LIKELY GENERALLY LIMITED TO MID/UPPER TEXAS COASTAL AREAS. ...GULF STATES... LEAD IMPULSE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN/SUBTROPICAL STREAM IS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO WEAKENING INHIBITION ACROSS WESTERN GULF COASTAL AREAS BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. IN CONJUNCTION WITH CONTINUING WARMING/MOISTENING OF BOUNDARY LAYER OFF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH STRENGTHENING LOW/MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT INCREASING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS MID AND UPPER TEXAS COASTAL AREAS BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. THOUGH LAPSE RATES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME PARTICULARLY STEEP...NAM/NAM KF FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST BOUNDARY LAYER BASED CAPE COULD BRIEFLY APPROACH 1000 J/KG EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IF THIS OCCURS...AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE IN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS...BEFORE STRONGER FORCING SHIFTS OFFSHORE LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ..KERR.. 12/13/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Dec 14 06:04:57 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Wed, 14 Dec 2005 01:04:57 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200512140603.jBE637O9014587@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 140600 SWODY2 SPC AC 140559 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1159 PM CST TUE DEC 13 2005 VALID 151200Z - 161200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SSW HUM 30 NNW MOB 25 E CSG 25 SW AGS 35 NE FLO 15 NNE RWI 15 ENE RIC BWI 15 NE PHL 20 SSW JFK 40 SSE ISP ...CONT... 35 ESE VRB 45 WSW FMY. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... STRONG NRN JET STREAM WILL CARVE OUT A DEEP COLD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE CNTRL/ERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH THU. BASE OF THIS TROUGH WILL MIGRATE EWD ACROSS THE SERN STATES THU AFTN...BEFORE GOING NEGATIVE-TILT AND EJECTING NEWD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC BY EARLY FRI. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE GULF COAST FROM SRN AL ACROSS SRN GA DURING THU...THEN REDEVELOP QUICKLY NEWD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES THU NIGHT/EARLY FRI. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SEWD ACROSS NRN/CNTRL FL. ...NRN/CNTRL FL...SRN GA AND THE COASTAL CAROLINAS... LINEAR MCS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING FROM SRN AL SWD INTO THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO AT 12Z THU ALONG THE AXIS OF A 45-50 KT SWLY LLJ. TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW SUGGESTS THAT MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO NRN FL AND SRN GA THU AFTN...BUT BUOYANCY SHOULD REMAIN WEAK. NONETHELESS...HODOGRAPHS EXHIBIT SIGNIFICANT LOW-LEVEL TURNING AND SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR MINI-SUPERCELLS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLD TORNADOES. IT IS UNCLEAR IF THE WARM SECTOR WILL CONTAIN SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER...BUT THE THREAT DOES WARRANT LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES ATTM. DURING THU NIGHT...AS THE LLJ AND SURFACE LOW QUICKLY TRANSLATE/ DEVELOP NEWD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION...SOME DESTABILIZATION IS LIKELY ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. STRONGER INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE GULF STREAM...BUT WEAK CAPE/HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT ALONG THE COAST MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST LOW PROBABILITIES FOR ISOLD STRONGER-SEVERE TSTMS. ..RACY.. 12/14/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Dec 15 06:02:51 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Thu, 15 Dec 2005 01:02:51 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200512150601.jBF613gh010901@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 150558 SWODY2 SPC AC 150557 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1157 PM CST WED DEC 14 2005 VALID 161200Z - 171200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE BRO 45 NNE MFE 15 NNW ALI 25 S VCT 50 ESE PSX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S ISP 15 SW EWB 55 NNE HYA. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... A BROAD UPPER CYCLONE CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER ACROSS THE UPPER GRTLKS REGION/NWRN ONTARIO ON FRI. STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED ALONG THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE BROAD TROUGH WILL EJECT NEWD FROM THE SERN STATES EARLY FRI TO NEW ENGLAND BY EARLY SAT. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS IMPULSE WILL EXTEND FROM SRN FL WWD ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF BASIN FRI NIGHT. UPSTREAM...STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL MIGRATE SLOWLY EWD INTO THE WRN PARTS OF NOAM...WITH A RATHER ACTIVE SRN STREAM UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS NRN MEXICO. AN EMBEDDED SPEED MAX IS EXPECTED TO MIGRATE FROM THE NRN BAJA REGION AND THEN PHASE WITH THE NRN STREAM WHILE TRANSLATING QUICKLY TOWARD NRN MEXICO BY FRI NIGHT. TAIL-END OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE GULF BASIN WILL REDEVELOP NWD TOWARD THE S TX COAST BY EARLY SAT. ...COASTAL S TX... BACKING FLOW REGIME DOWNSTREAM FROM THE SUB-TROPICAL IMPULSE WILL INDUCE INCREASING WARM/MOIST ADVECTION ACROSS THE WRN GULF BASIN AND COASTAL SECTIONS OF S TX FRI AFTN/NIGHT. AS A RESULT...BANDS OF CONVECTION ARE EXPECTED TO FORM...PRIMARILY FRI NIGHT ACROSS COASTAL S TX AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE NEARBY GULF WATERS. EMBEDDED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT ELEVATED BUOYANCY SHOULD REMAIN WEAK AND PRECLUDE ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS. ...COASTAL SRN NEW ENGLAND... STRONG DPVA ASSOCIATED WITH NEGATIVE-TILT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND FRI AFTN WITH AN ASSOCIATED BAND OF SHOWERS. ISOLD TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN COASTAL SRN NEW ENGLAND WHERE CLOUD TOPS MAY APPROACH MINUS 20C...ESPECIALLY OWING TO SUCH STRONG LARGE SCALE ASCENT. ..RACY.. 12/15/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Dec 15 17:35:48 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Thu, 15 Dec 2005 12:35:48 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200512151734.jBFHY0aS025311@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 151731 SWODY2 SPC AC 151730 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1130 AM CST THU DEC 15 2005 VALID 161200Z - 171200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE MFE 55 NNE MFE 35 NE CRP 50 SSE LBX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ENE SBY 35 ESE DOV JFK 10 ENE PSF LCI 50 S BHB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S EYW MIA 50 NNE PBI. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... MODELS SUGGEST A BLOCKING UPPER HIGH CENTER WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME MORE PROMINENT ACROSS THE CANADIAN ROCKIES DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. AS THIS OCCURS...THE BROAD CIRCULATION OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IS PROGGED TO ELONGATE...WITH A SIGNIFICANT COLD POOL DEVELOPING SOUTHWARD/SOUTHWESTWARD OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES/PLAINS. IN RESPONSE TO A SERIES OF IMPULSES ROTATING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN/EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW...A STRONG UPPER JET...NOW OVER THE GULF STATES...WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO REDEVELOP NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC. IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH...UPSTREAM...A BROAD TROUGH WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MEXICAN PLATEAU/LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY...AS THE EXIT REGION OF AN INTENSE ZONAL CENTRAL PACIFIC JET NOSES TOWARD THE CALIFORNIA COAST. IN RESPONSE TO EVOLVING UPPER PATTERN...THE LEADING EDGE OF ONE COLD INTRUSION WILL PROGRESS OFF ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. A WEAK REINFORCING SURGE WILL TAKE PLACE ACROSS TEXAS INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...WITH MUCH MORE COLDER AIR SETTLING INTO A LARGE PORTION OF THE NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL STATES. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STABLE THERMODYNAMIC STRUCTURE ACROSS MUCH OF THE NATION...AND CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE QUITE MINIMAL. ...NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... MODELS DO SUGGEST STRONG LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION NEAR AND NORTHEAST OF SURFACE CYCLONE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENTLY STEEP LAPSE RATES FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BY/SHORTLY AFTER 12Z FRIDAY. ENVIRONMENT APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MID DAY...BEFORE FORCING WEAKENS/SHIFTS EAST OF COASTAL AREAS. ...SOUTHERN FLORIDA... SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY BE ONGOING AT 12Z AHEAD OF FRONT NEAR COASTAL AREAS. HOWEVER...THIS THREAT WILL END EARLY AS FRONT PROGRESSES OFFSHORE...AND MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE. ...SOUTH TEXAS... AHEAD OF SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH...STRONG LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME AND MODIFYING BOUNDARY LAYER NEAR/SOUTH OF FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO MAY SUPPORT INCREASING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. MOST ACTIVITY APPEARS LIKELY TO REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF COASTAL AREAS...HOWEVER. ..KERR.. 12/15/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Dec 16 07:24:51 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Fri, 16 Dec 2005 02:24:51 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200512160723.jBG7N9hw005868@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 160720 SWODY2 SPC AC 160719 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0119 AM CST FRI DEC 16 2005 VALID 171200Z - 181200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SE CRP 45 WNW COT 45 ENE FST 35 NNE HOB 50 ESE PVW 10 SE FTW 25 SW LFK 10 SSW BPT 30 WSW HUM 15 SSW MGR 45 SE SAV. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE TROUGH WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SHORT-WAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION WITHIN BROAD SWLY FLOW ALOFT. AS THIS FEATURE SHIFTS ENEWD INVOF SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE FORECAST OVER THE NRN GULF...WEAK WAVE MAY DEVELOP/SHIFT EWD ALONG BOUNDARY THROUGH THE PERIOD. ...TX INTO THE GULF COAST REGION... THE MAJORITY OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT-WAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE GULF COAST REGION SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE GULF. HOWEVER...AREA OF SHOWERS/ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP/SHIFT EWD FROM TX TO FL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITHIN LAYER OF WEAK INSTABILITY. ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL DUE TO ELEVATED/WEAK INSTABILITY. ..GOSS.. 12/16/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Dec 16 17:25:11 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Fri, 16 Dec 2005 12:25:11 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200512161723.jBGHNQt8025068@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 161716 SWODY2 SPC AC 161715 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1115 AM CST FRI DEC 16 2005 VALID 171200Z - 181200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SSE CRP 25 SW COT 15 N DRT 15 W SJT 40 NE ABI 15 SE FTW 25 NNW BPT 35 ENE LCH 35 NNW GPT 20 NNE VLD 50 ESE SAV. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... PRIMARY UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ACROSS QUEBEC ON SATURDAY...WITH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINING OVER MUCH OF THE CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES. MEANWHILE...UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE FAR ERN PACIFIC WILL DEVELOP SLOWLY EWD TO ALONG THE WEST COAST BY 12Z SUNDAY. SRN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH...NOW MOVING INTO FAR W TX...IS EXPECTED TO DE-AMPLIFY ON DAY 2 AS IT TRACKS INTO CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY. NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH...NOW MOVING SSEWD ACROSS ORE/NRN CA AND ALONG ERN PERIPHERY OF ERN PACIFIC RIDGE...IS PROGGED TO REMAIN AMPLIFIED AS IT TRACKS FROM SRN HIGH PLAINS/NRN MEXICO ACROSS TX TO TN VALLEY/AL/GA. ...TX INTO THE GULF COAST REGION... BAROCLINIC ZONE INITIALLY EXTENDING FROM THE SRN GULF OF MEXICO TO FAR SRN FL WILL MOVE NWD ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA AND INTO THE NRN GULF. A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WRN EXTENT OF THIS BOUNDARY BY END OF DAY 1 PERIOD/START OF DAY 2 JUST OFF THE S TX COAST. THIS LOW WILL TRACK ENEWD ALONG THE RETREATING SURFACE FRONT...REACHING THE NERN GULF BY 12Z SUNDAY. STRONGER UPPER FORCING WITH THE MORE AMPLIFIED SRN STREAM TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. HOWEVER...WAA REGIME ASSOCIATED WITH STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF SAME TROUGH WILL SUPPORT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FROM PARTS OF CENTRAL/SE TX EWD ALONG THE GULF COAST REGION TO FAR SRN GA/FL. WEAK INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT THIS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...BUT LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER. ...CENTRAL FL... STRONGER STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE RETREATING FRONT IN CENTRAL FL SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL AND DEEP SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR SOME ORGANIZED ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...THE LACK OF UPPER FORCING AND WEAK LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE COVERAGE...AND THUS PRECLUDE THE INCLUSION OF LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES IN THIS OUTLOOK. ..PETERS.. 12/16/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Dec 17 06:38:51 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Sat, 17 Dec 2005 01:38:51 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200512170637.jBH6b8s3018111@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 170635 SWODY2 SPC AC 170633 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1233 AM CST SAT DEC 17 2005 VALID 181200Z - 191200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NNW PIE 25 E SGJ. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO PREVAIL THIS PERIOD...WITH AIRMASS OVER MOST OF THE CONUS REMAINING GENERALLY DRY/STABLE. FRONT MOVING SWD ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA THROUGH MOIST BOUNDARY-LAYER AIRMASS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...WHILE AN UPPER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE ACROSS CA/ORE WILL ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A STRAY LIGHTING STRIKE. OVERALL HOWEVER...CONVECTIVELY INACTIVE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS. ...SRN HALF OF FL... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED ALONG AND S OF SWD-MOVING COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER...DESPITE MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS...WEAK LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR WARM-SECTOR DESTABILIZATION. THIS COMBINED WITH THE LACK OF A WELL-DEFINED FEATURE WITHIN ROUGHLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WSWLY FLOW ALOFT AND ONLY MARGINAL /AROUND 30 KT/ 0-6 KM SHEAR ABOVE WARM SECTOR ALL SUGGEST THAT STORMS SHOULD REMAIN SUB-SEVERE. ...CA... MODELS DEPICT A RELATIVELY STRONG SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO NRN CA/ORE DURING THE AFTERNOON. COOL MID-LEVEL AIR/STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ALOFT MAY RESULT IN A LAYER OF MEAGER ELEVATED INSTABILITY...POSSIBLY SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW A FEW ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES WITHIN LARGER AREA OF PRECIPITATION. MINIMAL COVERAGE OF LIGHTNING ANTICIPATED ATTM PRECLUDES ISSUANCE OF A GENERAL THUNDER LINE ACROSS THIS AREA. ..GOSS.. 12/17/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Dec 17 17:31:35 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Sat, 17 Dec 2005 12:31:35 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200512171729.jBHHTqNE018168@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 171728 SWODY2 SPC AC 171727 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1127 AM CST SAT DEC 17 2005 VALID 181200Z - 191200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NNW PIE 25 E SGJ. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SRN FL... SRN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE NWRN GULF COAST...IS PROGGED TO TRACK FROM THE SRN APPALACHIANS/SERN STATES TO OFF THE EAST COAST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE...ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NC/SC COAST WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE AS IT TRACKS NEWD...WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING SWD ACROSS SRN FL. WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY DEVELOPING ACROSS SRN FL MAY SUPPORT SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...THE LACK OF SUFFICIENT UPPER FORCING AND THE WEAK INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. ...CA/SRN ORE... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE ERN PACIFIC AT 35N 144W. MODELS SUGGEST THIS TROUGH SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY OFFSHORE AS IT TRACKS NEWD TOWARD THE PAC NW COAST. THE SRN EXTENT OF THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DE-AMPLIFY AS IT MOVES EWD INTO UPPER RIDGE ACROSS NRN CA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND FARTHER INLAND TO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST SUNDAY NIGHT. GIVEN RECENT TRENDS IN OCEANIC LIGHTNING DATA SHOWING PERSISTENT STRIKES WITH THIS TROUGH... STEEPENING LAPSE RATES SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW STRIKES ALONG AND MAINLY OFFSHORE THE COAST OF CENTRAL/NRN CA AND SRN ORE. INLAND COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO LIMITED TO INCLUDE A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM LINE ACROSS THIS AREA. ..PETERS.. 12/17/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Dec 18 05:09:40 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Sun, 18 Dec 2005 00:09:40 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200512180508.jBI580gk028216@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 180505 SWODY2 SPC AC 180504 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1104 PM CST SAT DEC 17 2005 VALID 191200Z - 201200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSW APF 25 ENE MLB. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS THE ERN 2/3 OF THE CONUS THIS PERIOD...WHILE RIDGE AMPLIFIES WITH TIME ACROSS THE W COAST STATES/GREAT BASIN. WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILING ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CONUS...GENERALLY DRY/STABLE AIRMASS IS EXPECTED. ...S FL... SURFACE BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO LINGER ACROSS FAR SRN FL/THE FL KEYS THROUGH THE DAY...BEFORE SHIFTING SWD TOWARD CUBA OVERNIGHT. MARGINALLY-UNSTABLE AIRMASS INVOF FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...COMBINATION OF WEAK LAPSE RATES AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR GENERALLY LESS THAN 30 KT SUGGESTS THAT STORMS SHOULD REMAIN SUB-SEVERE. ..GOSS.. 12/18/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Dec 18 17:32:17 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Sun, 18 Dec 2005 12:32:17 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200512181730.jBIHUchs001911@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 181728 SWODY2 SPC AC 181727 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1127 AM CST SUN DEC 18 2005 VALID 191200Z - 201200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSW APF 25 ENE MLB. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER FLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED DURING THE DAY 2 PERIOD. A DEEP TROUGH CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR 150-160W IS PROGGED TO SPREAD EWD TO NEAR 135W OVER THE ERN PACIFIC...WITH DOWNSTREAM RIDGE STRENGTHENING ACROSS WRN NORTH AMERICA. STABLE AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL OVER MOST OF THE CONTINENTAL U.S. ON MONDAY...GIVEN A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM PARTS OF THE WEST TO NORTH CENTRAL STATES SSEWD TO THE EAST COAST AND GULF BASIN. ...SRN FL... A SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY SWD ACROSS FAR SRN/SERN FL ON MONDAY. MODELS SUGGEST THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...BUT WEAK LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY ARE EXPECTED TO PREVENT ACTIVITY FROM BECOMING SEVERE. ..PETERS.. 12/18/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Dec 19 05:21:18 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Mon, 19 Dec 2005 00:21:18 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200512190519.jBJ5JeL8022351@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 190517 SWODY2 SPC AC 190516 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1116 PM CST SUN DEC 18 2005 VALID 201200Z - 211200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW UIL 45 E AST 65 SE EUG 50 E ACV 55 NNW SAC 15 ENE SJC 45 SSW MRY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WSW FMY 50 SSE AGR 45 NE MLB. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN IS FORECAST THIS PERIOD...WITH A LARGE TROUGH PREVAILING OVER THE ERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS...A RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES...AND A SECOND TROUGH AFFECTING THE W COAST. LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS ACROSS THE CONUS WILL REMAIN STABLE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF S FL...AS WEAK WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG SURFACE BOUNDARY LINGERING OVER THE GULF/S FL. ...S FL AND THE KEYS... WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL REMAIN INVOF S FL EARLY IN THE PERIOD. AS MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS SPREAD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO/FL AHEAD OF DIGGING ERN U.S. TROUGH...A WEAK WAVE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY. ATTM...NAM SUGGESTS THAT THIS WAVE MAY DEVELOP JUST OFF THE SERN FL COAST AND DRIFT SLOWLY NWD WITH TIME...WHICH COULD ALLOW MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER TO ADVECT NWWD ACROSS SERN FL. THOUGH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY RESULT...WEAK LAPSE RATES/LIMITED INSTABILITY SHOULD FAVOR DISORGANIZED/SUB-SEVERE CONVECTION. ...COASTAL SWRN WA SWD TO THE CENTRAL CA COAST... COOLING ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH REACHING THE W COAST MAY YIELD AN ELEVATED LAYER OF MINIMAL INSTABILITY SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WITHIN LARGER AREA OF PRECIPITATION. MAIN THREAT SHOULD EXIST FROM ROUGHLY THE SFO BAY AREA NWD...WHERE A LEADING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ..GOSS.. 12/19/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Dec 19 17:20:11 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Mon, 19 Dec 2005 12:20:11 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200512191718.jBJHIcgG029834@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 191713 SWODY2 SPC AC 191712 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1112 AM CST MON DEC 19 2005 VALID 201200Z - 211200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW AST 40 W PDX 10 SSW EUG 25 NW MFR 30 WSW MHS 50 W RBL 50 W UKI. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... SECONDARY MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE/ASSOCIATED VORTICITY MAX IS FORECAST TO MOVE SEWD WITHIN THE SRN STREAM FROM THE SRN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ESEWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THIS WILL PHASE WITH BROAD TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO CREATE LARGE ERN U.S. TROUGH BY 21/12Z. MEANWHILE...CLOSED LOW AROUND 36N 142W WILL WEAKEN AND LIFT NEWD TOWARDS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AS HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE TRANSLATES SLOWLY EWD OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. LARGE SURFACE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO COVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE EAST CENTRAL U.S. AND SOUTHEASTERN STATES INHIBITING SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TO CONSIDER SEVERE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE CONUS. ...COASTAL AREAS OF OREGON INTO NWRN CA... MODELS INDICATE MODERATE/STRONG HORIZONTAL/VERTICAL SHEAR OVER THIS AREA WITH WEAKENING TROUGH AS IT APPROACHES THE NWRN U.S. LATE TUESDAY MORNING THRU TUESDAY EVENING. MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST AROUND -18C TO -20C...BARELY ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 7C/KM DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THUS... ENOUGH MID LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THIS AREA. ..MCCARTHY.. 12/19/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Dec 20 06:58:07 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Tue, 20 Dec 2005 01:58:07 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200512200656.jBK6uZcm004489@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 200654 SWODY2 SPC AC 200653 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1253 AM CST TUE DEC 20 2005 VALID 211200Z - 221200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WNW BLI 25 SE OLM 45 NNE MFR 25 SE RBL 25 NNE MER 25 WNW BFL 50 S OXR. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... A PROGRESSIVE AND DEAMPLIFYING FLOW PATTERN ALOFT IS FORECAST THIS PERIOD...AS ERN TROUGH BEGINS SHIFTING INTO THE ATLANTIC AND THE ERN PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE. AS A RESULT...WRN RIDGE SHOULD FLATTEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. WEAK SURFACE LOW INITIALLY FORECAST OFF THE FL ATLANTIC COAST SHOULD SHIFT EWD AHEAD OF ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING SEWD AWAY FROM THE SRN FL PENINSULA...TAKING WITH IT THE TROPICAL BOUNDARY LAYER AND ANY RELATED THUNDER THREAT. THE ONLY THUNDER POTENTIAL THIS PERIOD APPEARS TO EXIST IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE ONSHORE PROGRESSION OF THE WRN U.S. TROUGH. ...THE WEST... COLD AIR ALOFT/STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE SHOULD RESULT IN MARGINAL BUT SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED WITHIN LARGE AREA OF PRECIPITATION FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THIS REGION. THOUGH A STRIKE OR TWO MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER THE SIERRA -- OR EVEN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN...THE GREATEST -- ALBEIT STILL LIMITED -- COVERAGE OF LIGHTNING SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED PRIMARILY TO THE COASTAL RANGES. ..GOSS.. 12/20/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Dec 20 17:30:48 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Tue, 20 Dec 2005 12:30:48 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200512201729.jBKHTLwK015666@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 201727 SWODY2 SPC AC 201726 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1126 AM CST TUE DEC 20 2005 VALID 211200Z - 221200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NNW UIL UIL HQM AST 35 WNW SLE 35 NNE 4BK 25 E EKA RBL 55 SE RBL FAT 30 W BFL 20 S VBG. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... IN MID/UPPER LEVELS...GENERAL DEAMPLIFICATION OF NRN STREAM PATTERN IS FCST THROUGH PERIOD AS WRN CONUS RIDGE FLATTENS...AND HEIGHTS RISE ACROSS MUCH OF MIDDLE-LOWER GREAT LAKES REGIONS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH - NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER OK AND N TX -- IS FCST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS SERN CONUS AND OFFSHORE GA/CAROLINAS EARLY IN PERIOD. MEANWHILE UPSTREAM PERTURBATION -- NOW ASSOCIATED WITH SPEED MAX ALOFT ANALYZED OVER NRN ROCKIES -- IS EXPECTED TO DIG SEWD ACROSS SRN PLAINS AND NERN GULF...REACHING FL PENINSULA BY 22/12Z. NET EFFECT OF THESE TWO TROUGHS...AND ASSOCIATED SFC REINFORCEMENT OF CONTINENTAL-POLAR AIR MASS OVER GULF COAST STATES -- WILL BE TO SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OVER GREAT MAJORITY OF CONUS. EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER SOME PORTIONS PACIFIC COAST STATES. ...PACIFIC COAST STATES... PRIMARY CYCLONE TRACK ACROSS NERN PACIFIC WILL CONTINUE INTO ERN GULF OF AK AND ADJACENT PORTIONS AK/BC. HOWEVER...AS WRN CONUS RIDGE WEAKENS...MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER TO MORE WLY COMPONENT ACROSS REGION AND SEVERAL MINOR SHORTWAVE PERTURBATIONS WILL RESULT IN SUBTLE BUT SUSTAINED MIDLEVEL COOLING/DESTABILIZATION OVER AREA. WITH WEAK CINH EXPECTED...ASSOCIATED STEEPENING OF LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY RESULT IN WEAK MUCAPES UNDER 300 J/KG AND EPISODIC THUNDER POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL CA REGION WHERE LOW LEVEL WAA REGIME WILL REMAIN STRONG. COVERAGE SHOULD BE MARGINAL FOR GEN THUNDER OUTLOOK. ..EDWARDS.. 12/20/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Dec 21 07:07:32 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Wed, 21 Dec 2005 02:07:32 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200512210706.jBL765af010624@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 210703 SWODY2 SPC AC 210702 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0102 AM CST WED DEC 21 2005 VALID 221200Z - 231200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE CLM 35 SSE OLM 15 NE EUG 40 NNW MFR 30 NNW MHS 35 SW SFO. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... A SOMEWHAT MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL PREVAIL THIS PERIOD...AS ERN U.S. TROUGH DEAMPLIFIES AND MOVES EWD WHILE WRN TROUGH MOVES INLAND FLATTENING THE UPSTREAM RIDGE. LATE IN THE PERIOD...TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BEGIN SLIGHT AMPLIFICATION OVER THE PLAINS STATES AS SHORT-WAVE ENERGY ALOFT MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...STABLE CONTINENTAL AIRMASS SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE CONUS...WITH MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH HAS LINGERED INVOF S FL FORECAST TO BE SHUNTED SEWD AWAY FROM THE CONUS. ...THE W COAST... MINIMALLY-UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND UPSLOPE ASCENT OVER THE COASTAL RANGES OF THE PAC NW AND INTO NRN CA MAY SUPPORT TRANSIENT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITHIN LARGER AREA OF PRECIPITATION. LIMITED INSTABILITY EXPECTED SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL COVERAGE OF LIGHTNING. ..GOSS.. 12/21/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Dec 21 16:53:22 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Wed, 21 Dec 2005 11:53:22 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200512211651.jBLGpvDh001807@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 211650 SWODY2 SPC AC 211649 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1049 AM CST WED DEC 21 2005 VALID 221200Z - 231200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNE UIL 20 W OLM PDX 40 NNW MFR RBL 35 SW SFO. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVE AND TEMPORARILY DEAMPLIFYING UPPER AIR PATTERN IS FCST DURING PERIOD. GENERALLY MOIST WLY-SWLY FLOW ALOFT WITH EMBEDDED/LOW-AMPLITUDE PERTURBATIONS WILL CHARACTERIZE W COAST REGIME. UPPER TROUGH -- WITH EMBEDDED LOW INITIALLY EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY INVOF 45N137W -- IS EXPECTED TO OPEN AND EJECT NEWD INTO WA/BC LATE DAY-1. UPSTREAM TROUGH NEAR 150W IS FCST TO MOVE INLAND WA/ORE DURING DAY-2 PERIOD. THIS FEATURE IS MOST AMPLIFIED IN 12Z OPERATIONAL SPECTRAL MODEL AND 09Z SPECTRAL MEMBERS OF SREFX COMPARED TO OTHER MODELS...AND THAT SOLUTION IS PREFERRED BASED ON SATELLITE PRESENTATION AND EVOLUTION OF DOWNSTREAM PATTERN. FARTHER E...SHORTWAVE TROUGH INITIALLY OVER E TX AND LA WILL TURN EWD AND MOVE OFF SERN COAST INTO ATLANTIC. MEANWHILE...UPSTREAM TROUGH NOW OVER PACIFIC COAST STATES WILL PENETRATE MEAN WRN CONUS RIDGE AND MOVE ACROSS SRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. STRONG SFC RIDGING ACROSS GULF COAST STATES AND ADJACENT NRN GULF OF MEXICO WILL PRECLUDE SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE RETURN AND THEREFORE TSTM POTENTIAL OVER CONUS E OF ROCKIES. ...PACIFIC COAST STATES... TRANSIENT/INTERMITTENT THUNDER EPISODES POSSIBLE FROM COASTAL RANGES WWD INTO ADJACENT PACIFIC AMIDST MARGINAL BUOYANCY OF 300 J/KG OR LESS...AND WEAK CINH. TSTM PROBABILITIES MAY PEAK FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN...IN ZONE OF WEAK LARGE SCALE DPVA THAT WILL PRECEDE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. ..EDWARDS.. 12/21/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Dec 22 07:06:35 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Thu, 22 Dec 2005 02:06:35 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200512220705.jBM75DYf022546@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 220702 SWODY2 SPC AC 220701 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0101 AM CST THU DEC 22 2005 VALID 231200Z - 241200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... TROUGH IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS THIS PERIOD AS SHORT-WAVE ENERGY EXITS THE MEAN RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND MOVES THROUGH THE NRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS REGION. IN RESPONSE...SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN WHILE MOVING SEWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL SURGE RAPIDLY SEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH A SHALLOW/HIGHER THETA-E BOUNDARY LAYER EXPECTED TO SPREAD NWD INTO THE WRN GULF COAST REGION AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT TURNS MORE SLY. HOWEVER...AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY. ANY LIGHTNING THIS PERIOD WOULD LIKELY BE LIMITED TO THE NEUTRAL/MINIMALLY-UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT NEAR MID-LEVEL HEIGHT/THERMAL TROUGH AS IT CROSSES THE NRN ROCKIES DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...POTENTIAL COVERAGE APPEARS INSUFFICIENT TO WARRANT INCLUSION OF A THUNDER AREA. ..GOSS.. 12/22/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Dec 22 17:27:52 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Thu, 22 Dec 2005 12:27:52 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200512221726.jBMHQV6i020540@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 221724 SWODY2 SPC AC 221723 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1123 AM CST THU DEC 22 2005 VALID 231200Z - 241200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... A PRIMARILY ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH THE DAY 2 PERIOD. ON A FINER SCALE...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE WLY-S IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY IN THE NRN ROCKIES TONIGHT. AS THE WAVE PASSES BY LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO HELP INITIATE VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WY AND CO AS TEMPS WARM FRIDAY LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...VERY LIMITED MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP ANY LIGHTNING COVERAGE BELOW THE 10 % THRESHOLD. IN SOUTH TX...THE NAM DEVELOPS ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR CONVECTION FOR THE DAY 2 PERIOD. HOWEVER...THIS APPEARS TO BE OVERDONE CONSIDERING SFC DEWPOINTS ARE STILL IN THE 40S AND 50S F ACROSS THE REGION. IN ADDITION...A CAPPING INVERSION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE AND CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS UNLIKELY FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS SOUTH TX. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CONUS...LIGHTNING ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT. ..BROYLES.. 12/22/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Dec 23 05:48:31 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Fri, 23 Dec 2005 00:48:31 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200512230547.jBN5lGbb018093@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 230545 SWODY2 SPC AC 230544 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1144 PM CST THU DEC 22 2005 VALID 241200Z - 251200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SE BPT 30 ENE IER 25 NE LLQ 25 SW MEM 30 SE MKL 50 NNE HSV 55 SSW TYS 35 NW AND 25 E SPA 35 WSW SOP 30 NNE FAY 20 WNW EWN 20 SSE EWN 85 SE EWN ...CONT... 40 ENE VRB 50 WSW APF. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... A HIGH-AMPLITUDE PATTERN IS FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY TWO PERIOD WITH PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST BEING EVOLUTION OF DEEP MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE NATION. SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NW AS OF 23/12Z WILL UNDERGO SIGNIFICANT AMPLIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS IT PROGRESSES SEWD...DUE IN LARGE PART TO REINTENSIFICATION OF WRN U.S. RIDGE. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...PRIMARY SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH EVOLVING UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE MID MS VALLEY AT 24/12Z. DESPITE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES IN IT/S TRACK...THIS FEATURE WILL GENERALLY DEVELOP NEWD INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY OR CNTRL/ERN GREAT LAKES BY 25/12Z. MEANWHILE...TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EWD THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND GULF COAST AND WILL LIKELY EXTEND FROM THE SURFACE LOW SWD ACROSS THE PIEDMONT INTO NRN FL BY SUNDAY MORNING. ...GULF COAST INTO THE SERN STATES... CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND GPS PW LOOPS INDICATE A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS /DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S/ ACROSS THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO WITH THE RICHEST MOISTURE CONFINED TO THE SRN BAY OF CAMPECHE. INCREASING SLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR THE NWD RETURN OF A MODIFIED GULF AIR MASS...WITH DEWPOINTS INCREASING THROUGH THE 50S FROM THE COAST INLAND. DESPITE CONSIDERABLE COOLING ALOFT...IT APPEARS THAT THE MARGINAL MOISTURE RETURN AND MODEST LAPSE RATES WILL TEND TO LIMIT INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES AOB 500 J/KG. ELEVATED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN PROGRESS OR DEVELOPING AT THE ONSET OF THE FORECAST PERIOD OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY AS STRONGER DEEP-LAYER FORCING BEGINS OVERSPREADING WRN EDGE OF RETURNING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME PROGRESSIVELY MORE SURFACE-BASED BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON OWING TO BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING AND RESULTANT DESTABILIZATION. THESE STORMS WILL THEN MOVE/DEVELOP EWD ACROSS ERN LA...MS AND AL SATURDAY AND INTO FL...GA AND SC SATURDAY NIGHT. DESPITE INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR AND LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT...IT APPEARS THAT THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL BE THE PRIMARY FACTOR LIMITING THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA. NONETHELESS...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SOME EMBEDDED BOWING OR LEWP STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO. SHOULD OBSERVATIONAL DATA AND/OR LATER NWP GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT INSTABILITY WILL BE STRONGER THAN IS CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...AN UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK MAY BE REQUIRED IN SUBSEQUENT DAY ONE OUTLOOKS. ..MEAD.. 12/23/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Dec 23 17:29:35 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Fri, 23 Dec 2005 12:29:35 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200512231728.jBNHSJqO014658@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 231726 SWODY2 SPC AC 231725 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1125 AM CST FRI DEC 23 2005 VALID 241200Z - 251200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE MLB 30 S AGR 45 WSW FMY ...CONT... 30 S GLS 40 W POE 40 ENE SHV 50 NE PBF 25 NE MEM 45 N HSV 50 E CHA 35 ESE AND 20 NE OGB 45 ESE CHS. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SERN STATES... A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS WILL AMPLIFY AND DIG QUICKLY SEWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY TONIGHT. THE NAM AND GFS SOLUTIONS NOW AGREE WITH CLOSING THE SYSTEM OFF LATE TONIGHT OVER THE OZARK PLATEAU. IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING SYSTEM...A COLD FRONT WILL ORGANIZE TONIGHT IN THE SRN PLAINS AND SWEEP EWD ACROSS THE OZARKS AND LOWER MS VALLEY SATURDAY MORNING. MULTIPLE LINES OF STORMS MAY BE ONGOING JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE MORNING. STRONG SLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ADVECT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NWD INTO LA...MS AND AL DURING THE DAY. SFC DEWPOINTS IN NRN GULF ARE CURRENTLY IN THE 55 TO 65 F RANGE AND THIS AIR SHOULD ADVECT AS FAR NWD AS CNTRL MS AND CNTRL AL BY EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS SFC TEMPS WARM SATURDAY...REINTENSIFICATION OF THE CONVECTIVE LINES OR THE INITIATION OF NEW STORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT APPEARS LIKELY. ALTHOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON SHOW ADEQUATE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES FOR SEVERE CONVECTION...INSTABILITY SHOULD BE THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR SEVERE. THE GREATEST LIFT/INSTABILITY/SHEAR COMBINATIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN SRN MS AND SRN AL IN THE LATE AFTERNOON WHERE SMALL HAIL AND ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. DUE TO THE BAND OF VERY STRONG ASCENT...MULTIPLE LINE SEGMENTS SHOULD REFORM OR CONTINUE EWD ACROSS SRN AL...SWRN GA AND THE FL PANHANDLE DURING THE EVENING. AS INSTABILITY WEAKENS OVERNIGHT...ANY MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH. ..BROYLES.. 12/23/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Dec 28 05:46:53 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Wed, 28 Dec 2005 00:46:53 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200512280548.jBS5mW4K030477@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 280546 SWODY2 SPC AC 280544 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1144 PM CST TUE DEC 27 2005 VALID 291200Z - 301200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 ESE CHS 15 ENE CRE 20 S GSB 45 SSE NHK NEL 10 NW ISP 30 SSW ORH 15 WNW PSM 10 W PWM 20 S AUG 60 SSE BHB. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVE WAVE TRAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TWO PERIOD FROM THE ERN PACIFIC INTO THE WRN ATLANTIC. STRONG...MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN U.S. THURSDAY MORNING WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NEWD OFF THE COAST WHILE NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH INTENSIFIES OVER THE PLAINS. MEANWHILE IN THE W...ANOTHER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE PACIFIC NW COAST FRIDAY MORNING. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTERN TROUGH /INITIALLY OVER ERN VA/ WILL DEVELOP NEWD TO VICINITY OF THE ME COAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. OVER THE PLAINS...PRIMARY SURFACE LOW WILL SHIFT EWD ACROSS SD WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHING SEWD OUT OF NRN HIGH PLAINS. FARTHER TO THE S...SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP SEWD FROM THE TX PNHDL INTO NRN TX. ...NC COAST TO NEW ENGLAND COAST... NOCTURNAL CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD NEAR SURFACE LOW SWD ALONG COLD FRONT FROM SERN VA INTO ERN NC. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE OFF SHORE QUICKLY THURSDAY MORNING. OTHER ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND N OF SURFACE LOW TRACK WHERE STRONG...DEEP-LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE COLOCATED WITH WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY. ELSEWHERE...AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY OVER THE CNTRL ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS IN ASSOCIATION WITH MID-LEVEL COLD POOL /I.E. -24 TO -28 C AT 500 MB/ AND RESULTANT STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. PRIMARY ZONE OF FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH PARENT MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO HAVE SHIFTED EWD INTO THE PLAINS AT THIS TIME...THUS AREAL COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN QUITE LIMITED. OTHER ISOLATED LIGHTNING ACTIVITY MAY ALSO APPROACH THE PACIFIC NW COAST LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD IN ASSOCIATION WITH NEXT TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE ERN PACIFIC. HERE TOO...COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN QUITE LIMITED AND NO THUNDER AREA WILL BE INCLUDED. ..MEAD.. 12/28/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Dec 28 17:36:27 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Wed, 28 Dec 2005 12:36:27 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200512281738.jBSHc674002733@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 281735 SWODY2 SPC AC 281734 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1134 AM CST WED DEC 28 2005 VALID 291200Z - 301200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE CHS 45 S FAY 25 E RZZ 25 SE DOV NEL 15 SW BDR 10 ENE BDL 30 SSW CON 15 SW PWM 30 SSW BGR 45 NNW EPM. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... AN ACTIVE WAVE TRAIN WILL CONTINUE COAST-TO-COAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS ROBUST SHORT WAVE TROUGHS SPREAD INLAND FROM THE PACIFIC AND PROGRESS EAST ACROSS THE CONUS. THE LEADING IMPULSE DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD WAS SPINNING OVER THE MIDWEST. THIS CYCLONE WILL MAKE STEADY NEWD PROGRESS FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES TO THE COAST OF MAINE THURSDAY. AS PRIMARY SURFACE LOW UNDERGOES OCCLUSION ACROSS WRN NY...SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR NEAR DELMARVA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE SECONDARY LOW WILL THEN TRACK ALONG COASTAL BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM NJ SHORE TO THE GULF OF MAINE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES EAST INTO THE WRN ATLANTIC. THE NEXT UPSTREAM WAVE WAS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST. STRONG HEIGHT FALLS WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WILL SPREAD EAST FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS DURING THE PERIOD AS PRIMARY LEE-SIDE SURFACE LOW TAKES FORM OVER THE DAKOTAS. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL SURGE OUT OF THE HIGH PLAINS AND SEWD ACROSS THE SCNTRL AND SRN PLAINS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. LASTLY...AFTER A BRIEF RESPITE FROM HEAVY PRECIPITATION ALONG THE WEST COAST...THE NEXT STRONG PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO INFLUENCE COASTAL AREAS FROM NRN CA TO WA BY FRIDAY MORNING. ...EAST COAST... DEEP-LAYER BAROCLINIC BAND WITHIN ERN QUADRANT OF POTENT UPPER TROUGH SHOULD MOVE STEADILY OFFSHORE FROM VA TO SC THROUGH NOON. RESIDUAL INSTABILITY WITHIN THIS ZONE OF STRONG ASCENT COULD FUEL SCATTERED TSTMS BEFORE SUBSIDENCE AND COOLER/DRIER AIR MASS SPREADS ACROSS THESE AREAS THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY. MEANWHILE...LOW LEVEL JET WILL INTENSIFY OVER THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS COINCIDENT WITH SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS NEAR DELMARVA. THIS PROCESS WILL ENHANCE ASCENT ACROSS COASTAL BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM LONG ISLAND TO SERN NEW ENGLAND. LIFT WILL FURTHER INTENSIFY ACROSS THESE AREAS THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS NNEWD. UNUSUALLY WARM/MOIST AIR MASS BEING ENTRAINED INTO THE LARGER SCALE SYSTEM SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST MARGINAL INSTABILITY FROM ERN NJ NEWD TO COASTAL MAINE. SCATTERED TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF THE COASTAL FRONT AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW. ...ROCKIES... ISOLATED TSTMS COULD DEVELOP NEAR THE NEXT STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CO/WY MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN TOO LIMITED TO SUPPORT ANYTHING MORE THAN ISOLATED AND SHORT-LIVED CONVECTION. ANTICIPATED LIGHTNING COVERAGE DOES NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT AN OUTLOOK AREA AT THIS TIME. ..CARBIN.. 12/28/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Dec 29 05:29:07 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Thu, 29 Dec 2005 00:29:07 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200512290530.jBT5UkIV024565@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 290528 SWODY2 SPC AC 290527 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1127 PM CST WED DEC 28 2005 VALID 301200Z - 311200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW PIB 25 WSW GLH 55 SSW JBR 35 SSW LOZ 20 WSW TRI GSP 50 SSE AHN 25 SSE SEM 35 WNW PIB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 NNW UIL 25 SE HQM 25 ENE SLE 10 NE MFR 30 ENE ACV 80 SSW EKA. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... ACTIVE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TWO PERIOD WITH PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST BEING MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WILL TRANSLATE EWD FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND SWD THROUGH THE OH/TN VALLEYS BY SATURDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE IN THE W...NEXT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ONTO THE PACIFIC NW COAST. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...PRIMARY SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE PLAINS TROUGH WILL DEVELOP GENERALLY EWD FROM THE MID MO VALLEY INTO THE SRN GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE MS VALLEY...LIKELY EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER OH VALLEY SWWD INTO THE CNTRL GULF COAST BY 31/12Z. ...LOWER MS VALLEY/GULF COAST INTO TN VALLEY... LATEST SHORT TERM-MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN SUGGESTING THAT STRONGEST LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AND STEEPEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE MID MS/OH AND TN VALLEY DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. DESPITE RETURNING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF SYSTEM COLD FRONT...THESE DATA INDICATE THAT INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN QUITE LIMITED OWING TO POOR LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER...GIVEN CURRENT BUOY OBSERVATIONS OVER THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO E AND SE OF BRO...IT APPEARS THAT WRN EXTENSION OF COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE GULF HAS STALLED WITH DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE LOW/MID 60S. THEREFORE...THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT THIS MODEL GUIDANCE MAY BE UNDERESTIMATING THE QUALITY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH WILL BE ABLE TO RETURN NEWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND GULF COAST STATES. CURRENTLY...ONLY A GENERAL THUNDER AREA HAS BEEN INCLUDED OWING TO RELATIVELY STRONG AND PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT WITHIN SYSTEM WARM CONVEYOR BELT WHICH SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND SUBSEQUENT TSTM DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...SEVERE PROBABILITIES MAY BECOME NECESSARY IN SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS SHOULD IT BECOME APPARENT THAT MORE INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP THAN IS CURRENTLY FORECAST. ...PACIFIC NW COAST... INCREASED LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AND STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE COAST MAY SUPPORT WEAK INSTABILITY AND ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT. ..MEAD.. 12/29/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Dec 29 17:09:48 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Thu, 29 Dec 2005 12:09:48 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200512291711.jBTHBPlQ022721@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 291709 SWODY2 SPC AC 291708 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1108 AM CST THU DEC 29 2005 VALID 301200Z - 311200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNW UIL 15 SE HQM 50 SSE OTH 20 ESE CEC 45 S EKA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW PIB 25 WSW GLH 55 SSW JBR 35 SSW LOZ 20 WSW TRI GSP 50 SSE AHN 25 SSE SEM 35 WNW PIB. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... THE PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL PERSIST INTO FRI ACROSS THE COUNTRY. AS THE UPPER SYSTEM CROSSING NEW ENGLAND EXITS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE CNTRL/NRN ROCKIES WILL TRANSLATE INTO THE PLAINS EARLY FRI AND INTO THE OH/TN VLYS BY EARLY SATURDAY. A THIRD DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE PAC NW COAST FRI NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE PLAINS DISTURBANCE WILL DEVELOP EWD FROM NEB ACROSS THE CORN BELT FRI AFTN...REACHING THE CNTRL GRTLKS REGION BY 12Z SAT. THE TRAILING FRONT WILL SWEEP EWD ACROSS THE PLAINS...THE OH...MS AND TN VLYS FRI AFTN AND INTO THE DEEP S/SERN STATES BY EARLY SAT. ...LOWER MS VALLEY/GULF COAST INTO TN VALLEY... RETURN FLOW HAS ALREADY BEGUN ACROSS THE WRN GULF BASIN/SRN PLAINS AHEAD OF THE CNTRL/NRN ROCKIES MID-LEVEL IMPULSE. AS THIS IMPULSE MOVES INTO THE PLAINS...THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND FRI ACROSS THE ERN PLAINS AND MS VLY. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK FARTHER N THAN THE PREVIOUS DISTURBANCE AND THE STRONGEST LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS/ASCENT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GRTLKS AND OH/TN VLYS. THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE ASCENT WILL LIKELY BRUSH NRN EXTENT OF THE MOISTURE AXIS AND TSTM PROBABILITIES WILL LIKELY INCREASE FRI NIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF THE TN VLY. GIVEN THAT STRONGER ASCENT/STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LARGELY SPREAD N OF THE REGION...IT APPEARS THAT SEVERE TSTM PROBABILITIES WILL REMAIN LOW. ...PACIFIC NW COAST... STEEPENING LAPSE RATES SPREADING INLAND IN THE POST-FRONTAL REGIME MAY SUPPORT ISOLD TSTMS ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF WA/ORE AND NRN CA VERY LATE FRI NIGHT. ..RACY.. 12/29/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Dec 30 06:06:39 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Fri, 30 Dec 2005 01:06:39 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200512300608.jBU68AxL012513@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 300605 SWODY2 SPC AC 300604 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1204 AM CST FRI DEC 30 2005 VALID 311200Z - 011200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE BLI 25 ESE PDX MFR MHS RNO NFL 30 NNW ENV SLC BCE SGU NID BFL 60 WNW MRY. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... MODELS SUGGEST LITTLE CHANGE TO THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. AN INTENSE ZONAL UPPER JET WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE MID LATITUDE PACIFIC...WITH THE PRIMARY BELT OF WESTERLIES...IN SPLIT DOWNSTREAM FLOW...EXTENDING IN MORE OR LESS ZONAL FASHION ACROSS THE UNITED STATES. EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS REGIME...ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE IMPULSES...EMANATING FROM THE PACIFIC JET...IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS RAPIDLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PACIFIC COAST INTO THE GREAT BASIN SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY. DOWNSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH HAS ALREADY ADVANCED INTO THE CENTRAL STATES....BUT WILL BECOME LESS PROGRESSIVE AS IT AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. HOWEVER...THIS FEATURE IS STILL PROGGED TO ADVANCE EASTWARD INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY BY 12Z SATURDAY...THEN ACROSS NORTHERN/MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS BY 12Z SUNDAY. GIVEN ONLY A NARROW WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR AIR MASS MODIFICATION/DESTABILIZATION IN WAKE OF A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALREADY PROGRESSING OFF ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ASSOCIATED WITH IMMEDIATE UPSTREAM SYSTEM SEEMS LIKELY TO REMAIN LIMITED ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN STATES. CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER/PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE WEST...AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM...LIKELY WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AS WELL. HOWEVER...MID-LEVEL COOLING/FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT AREAS OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. ...PACIFIC COAST STATES INTO INTERMOUNTAIN WEST... A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING EARLY SATURDAY ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST...AIDED BY MODERATELY STRONG MOIST ONSHORE FLOW. THOUGH ONSHORE FLOW IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN...POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY TO THE WEST OF THE CASCADES...AS MID-LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH PROGRESSES INLAND. FARTHER SOUTH...MID-LEVEL COOLING/LIFT IN THE EXIT REGION OF A STRONG JET STREAK MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY...PERHAPS THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE SIERRA NEVADA. THOUGH VEERING LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS WITH HEIGHT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR...WEAK INSTABILITY DUE TO LITTLE OR NO SURFACE HEATING CURRENTLY SEEMS LIKELY TO PRECLUDE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS. ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP INTO PARTS OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY BY EARLY SATURDAY EVENING...POSSIBLY INTO THE GREAT BASIN LATER SATURDAY NIGHT. ...SOUTHEAST... MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE/DRYING IS PROGGED TO OVERSPREAD LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNING TO THE EASTERN GULF/SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES BY EARLY SATURDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER INLAND AREAS. HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD PERSIST NEAR FRONT OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO...WITH BETTER POTENTIAL DEVELOPING LATER IN THE DAY...OFF SOUTH ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS. ..KERR.. 12/30/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Dec 30 17:27:27 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Fri, 30 Dec 2005 12:27:27 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200512301728.jBUHSv26000587@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 301727 SWODY2 SPC AC 301726 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1126 AM CST FRI DEC 30 2005 VALID 311200Z - 011200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE BLI 25 ESE PDX MFR 10 S MHS 50 NNW RNO 20 SW WMC 45 NNW ENV 15 SE OGD 30 NW PUC 15 WNW 4HV 25 SSE BCE SGU 35 NNW NID 40 WNW BFL 20 WNW PRB 60 W MRY. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL QUICKLY MOVE NEWD INTO NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...A STRONGER IMPULSE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE CA/PAC NW EARLY SATURDAY THEN INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/GRT BASIN BY 12Z SUNDAY. ...CNTRL VLYS OF CA... FRONTAL BAND ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG UPPER WAVE IS EXPECTED TO REACH NRN CA AND THE BAY AREA MID-MORNING SATURDAY...THEN SWEEP SEWD ACROSS CNTRL CA BY EVENING. BEHIND THE FRONT...ONSHORE WLY FLOW WILL ADVECT MID 50S DEW POINTS INTO THE VLYS BENEATH STEEPENING MID-TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES...CONTRIBUTING TO A DESTABILIZING AIR MASS DURING THE AFTN/EVENING /MLCAPES 250-500 J PER KG/. MAGNITUDE OF THE BUOYANCY COUPLED WITH THE MAINTENANCE OF CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SCATTERED TSTMS...PRIMARILY DURING PEAK HEATING. MORE ROBUST UPDRAFTS MAY TEND TO EXHIBIT BRIEF SUPERCELL STRUCTURES GIVEN 60-80 KTS OF VERTICAL SHEAR AND ISOLD LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. ISOLD TORNADOES MAY ALSO OCCUR AS THE NEAR-SURFACE FLOW SHOULD REMAIN BACKED IN THE VLYS...AUGMENTING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. LATER OUTLOOKS WILL NEED TO CONSIDER A CATEGORICAL SLGT RISK IF PROJECTED THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES APPEAR/BECOME FAVORABLE FOR MORE NUMEROUS TSTMS. ..RACY.. 12/30/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Dec 31 17:49:07 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Sat, 31 Dec 2005 12:49:07 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200512311750.jBVHom2H028386@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 311748 SWODY2 SPC AC 311747 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1147 AM CST SAT DEC 31 2005 VALID 011200Z - 021200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NE MKL 20 SSE PAH 25 ENE OWB 10 E SDF 20 W LEX 40 WNW LOZ 30 N CSV 10 WSW CSV CHA 25 S RMG ANB 15 N BHM 35 E TUP 25 N TUP 10 NE MKL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSW 7R4 40 SSW HEZ 20 WSW MEM 20 NE POF 30 SSE UIN 15 NNW IRK 10 WNW OXV 20 SSW ALO 25 WNW DBQ 25 ENE RFD JXN 35 N CLE 10 NE YNG 15 ENE PIT 20 SW MGW 50 ENE CRW 10 W BLF 50 N HKY HKY 10 ESE CLT 35 NNE FLO 35 SSE FAY 10 NE ILM 45 ESE ILM ...CONT... 30 ENE DAB 60 S CTY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNE UIL 20 SSE AST 30 ESE OTH 45 ESE CEC 45 SE EKA UKI 50 NNW SFO 10 SSE SFO 20 NW MRY 50 SSW MRY. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF KY AND THE TN VALLEY AREA LATE SUNDAY OR EARLY MONDAY... ...SYNOPSIS... AN ACTIVE AND VERY PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THE CONUS INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE NEW YEAR AS INCESSANT SERIES OF INTENSE PACIFIC DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD AND INLAND. PRIMARY DISTURBANCE OF CONCERN FOR SUNDAY WILL MOVE ACROSS NRN CA AND INTO THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST/ROCKIES THROUGH TONIGHT. A BROAD BAND OF 80-100KT MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL ACCOMPANY THIS IMPULSE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND RESULT IN LARGE SCALE TROUGH AMPLIFICATION OVER THE GREAT PLAINS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG LEE-SIDE CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AND THE LOW CENTER WILL LIKELY TRACK FROM THE MO VALLEY ACROSS THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. ...NCNTRL GULF COAST TO LOWER OH VALLEY... BROAD WARM SECTOR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND EXPAND FROM LOWER MS VALLEY TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY THROUGH LATE SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW. LARGE SCALE PATTERN AMPLIFICATION AND PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND EXISTENCE OF MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ALREADY IN PLACE CLOSE TO THE CNTRL GULF COAST...WILL SUPPORT A STRONG INLAND INFLUX OF 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY ACROSS THE TN VALLEY THROUGH LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS TO OVER 50KT ACROSS THESE AREAS. GIVEN MODEST INHIBITION ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR...INITIAL ELEVATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY TO OCCUR NORTH AND EAST OF THE WARM FRONT WHERE SLOPED ASCENT AND MOISTENING WILL ALLOW PARCELS TO OVERCOME WEAKER INHIBITION FROM IND/OH SEWD ACROSS THE SRN APPALACHIANS. SOME OF THIS CONVECTION COULD POSE A THREAT OF HAIL. GIVEN MODEST UPSTREAM DESTABILIZATION/LAPSE RATES. INCREASINGLY INTENSE UPPER FORCING FOR ASCENT BENEATH STRONGLY DIFFLUENT EXIT REGION OF MID LEVEL JET WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD LEADING EDGE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS PARTS OF THE TN VALLEY AFTER DARK. THIS PROCESS COULD SUPPORT AN INCREASING RISK OF NEAR SURFACE-BASED TSTM DEVELOPMENT AS RESIDUAL CAPPING INVERSION/INHIBITION IS ELIMINATED. GFS...AND TO A SLIGHTLY LESSER EXTENT THE NAM...BOTH APPEAR TO SUGGEST CONVECTION BACKBUILDING ACROSS PARTS OF KY AND THE TN VALLEY AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IN ADDITION TO VERY STRONG EFFECTIVE BULK LAYER SHEAR APPROACHING 60KT ACROSS THESE AREAS...WARM FRONT WILL FURTHER PROVIDE A FAVORABLE FOCUS FOR SUPERCELLS IN A STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. GIVEN ANTICIPATED MAGNITUDE OF LARGE SCALE FORCING...AND PROXIMITY OF WARM SECTOR AIRMASS WITH LOW 60S DEWPOINTS AND MLCAPE OF AT LEAST 500 J/KG...EXPECT POTENTIALLY VIGOROUS ROTATING STORMS WITH A CHANCE FOR LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY EVEN A COUPLE OF TORNADOES INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. ..CARBIN.. 12/31/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM