[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 221728
SWODY2
SPC AC 221727

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1227 PM CDT MON AUG 22 2005

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NNW DVL 30 SE MBG
35 S 9V9 15 WNW OFK 10 WSW FNB 35 W COU 35 N BWG 20 ESE BKW 20 ESE
SBY ...CONT... 65 W COT 30 SW AUS 25 WNW TPL 30 WSW MWL 55 ENE BGS
FST 45 WSW MRF ...CONT... IPL 60 WNW EED 30 SW TPH 35 SE LOL 45 WNW
OWY 60 NE BOI 20 ESE LWS 35 NE EPH 40 NNW 4OM.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...HIGH PLAINS...

WARM ADVECTION REGIME WILL DOMINATE THE HIGH PLAINS DURING THE DAY2
PERIOD AS LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS REMAINS UPSTREAM FROM THE NRN
ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT BASIN.  DESPITE WEAK FLOW ALOFT...VEERING
PROFILES WITH HEIGHT AND STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN
SHEAR PROFILES MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF ROTATING STORMS.

ASIDE FROM THE FAIRLY STRONG FRONTAL SURGE INTO MT LATE IN THE
PERIOD...DOWNSTREAM SFC RIDGE WILL FORCE ELY COMPONENT ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS MAINTAINING LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE ZONE IN THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES.  THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE
INITIATION DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION EXPECTED TO AID LONGEVITY OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING
THE EVENING.  A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS
HOWEVER EXPECTED AREAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY DOES NOT WARRANT AN
ORGANIZED SEVERE OUTLOOK AT THIS TIME.


...SERN U.S...

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN REGARDS TO A FAIRLY
ACTIVE CONVECTIVE DAY ACROSS THE SERN U.S. DURING THE DAY2 PERIOD. 
THIS CONVECTION SHOULD EVOLVE WITHIN BASE OF ERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH
WHERE SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 15-20KT...JUST STRONG
ENOUGH TO ENSURE PULSE-MULTICELL UPDRAFTS ARE ABLE TO MOVE/PROPAGATE
IN A SEWD FASHION.  WITH TSTMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MID
DAY...LAPSE RATES MAY STRUGGLE TO STEEPEN...THUS INSTABILITY SHOULD
BE OVERTURNED QUICKLY AND REMAIN SOMEWHAT MARGINAL.  THIS WILL
LIKELY LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL AND LOW PROBABILITIES FOR WET
MICROBURSTS WILL SUFFICE AT THIS TIME.

..DARROW.. 08/22/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.