[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 211638
SWODY2
SPC AC 211637

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1137 AM CDT SUN AUG 21 2005

VALID 221200Z - 231200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 SSW GBN 40 ENE PHX
20 NE FLG 35 SE SGU 65 N DRA RNO SVE 4LW PDT 30 N 63S ...CONT... 70
NE ISN 10 ESE Y22 35 ESE GRI TOP TBN 10 SE POF MKL 25 NNE MSL 20 W
CHA 20 NW AVL HKY 15 NE ORF ...CONT... 25 E MFE 30 WNW VCT 20 ENE
TPL ABI FST 75 W MRF.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
AMPLIFICATION OF LARGE-SCALE PATTERN IS FORECAST OVER THE CONUS AND
SRN CANADA THROUGH THE DAY 2 PERIOD WITH PRIMARY FEATURES BEING
SLOW-MOVING UPPER LOW OVER SERN CANADA AND THE NERN STATES...AND
EVOLVING UPPER TROUGH OVER WRN CANADA INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN W.
BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS...SMALLER-SCALE CIRCULATIONS/SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
CURRENTLY OVER CO AND THE NRN TX PNHDL WILL PROGRESSIVELY WEAKEN
OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT WITHIN BASE OF SW-NE
ORIENTED RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS TO JAMES BAY.

IN THE LOW-LEVELS...QUASI-STATIONARY SYNOPTIC FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM
THE NC COAST ACROSS THE SERN STATES...LOWER MS VALLEY AND THEN NWWD
THROUGH THE RED RIVER VALLEY TO DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER CNTRL
MT. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH EVOLVING WRN CANADA/U.S. TROUGH
WILL PUSH SEWD THROUGH THE CANADIAN ROCKIES...PACIFIC NW AND INTO
THE NRN ROCKIES DURING THE PERIOD.

...KS/OK/N TX...
A MOIST BOUNDARY-LAYER CHARACTERIZED BY DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S WILL PERSIST INVOF AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL ZONE. WHEN
COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND MODESTLY STEEP LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...AFTERNOON AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MODERATELY
UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF 1500-2500 J/KG. A RELATIVELY WEAK CAP ALONG
WITH SOME LARGE-SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKENING UPPER
SYSTEMS OVER KS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASE IN STORM
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY INVOF FRONTAL ZONE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS.

WHILE OVERALL MAGNITUDE OF TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELDS WILL REMAIN
MODEST TO WEAK...FORECAST HODOGRAPHS INDICATE STRONG VEERING WITH
HEIGHT THROUGH THE LOWEST 3 KM AGL WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEARS
APPROACHING 30-35 KTS. GIVEN THIS COMBINATION OF SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE
OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. STORMS SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN
MONDAY NIGHT AS BOUNDARY-LAYER COOLS AND STABILIZES.
HOWEVER...SHOULD SEWD-MOVING CLUSTERS OF STORMS ORGANIZE A COLD
POOL...SOME POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS MAY PERSIST INTO THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS WITH THREAT POSSIBLY EXTENDING SWD INTO N TX.

...SERN STATES...
OTHER CLUSTERS OF LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF MAINLY DAMAGING
WINDS MAY ALSO OCCUR ALONG FRONTAL ZONE OVER PORTIONS OF AL...GA AND
SC. HERE...A VERY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS /I.E. DEWPOINTS OF 70-75
F/ COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY /MLCAPES OF 2000-3500 J/KG/.
MOREOVER...ELY LOW-LEVEL WINDS ON IMMEDIATE COOL SIDE OF BOUNDARY
BENEATH VERY SRN FRINGE OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
NERN U.S. TROUGH WILL RESULT IN MARGINALLY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR
ACROSS NRN EXTENT OF INSTABILITY AXIS.

..MEAD.. 08/21/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.