[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 201730
SWODY2
SPC AC 201728

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1228 PM CDT SAT AUG 20 2005

VALID 211200Z - 221200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW MFE 35 NNW VCT
25 NW AUS 40 ESE SJT 50 E FST 25 SW FST 65 SW MRF ...CONT... 40 SE
YUM 60 WSW PRC 25 W CDC 30 NNW ELY WMC 10 SE MHS MFR DLS GEG 10 SE
FCA GTF BIL 45 E 81V BUB BIE 10 ESE TOP 35 WNW TBN 35 NW CGI 40 ENE
EVV 40 N LEX 45 SSW CMH 35 SW CAK 40 NE CLE.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
INTENSE...MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS QUEBEC
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT WITH AMPLIFICATION OF LARGER-SCALE TROUGH FROM
ERN CANADA SWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...OH VALLEY AND NERN STATES. 
THIS WILL SUPPORT SWD DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE TO STRONG MID TO
HIGH-LEVEL WIND FIELDS ACROSS THE UPPER OH VALLEY...NEW ENGLAND AND
MID ATLANTIC COAST.  IN THE W...NRN EXTENSION OF DOMINANT RIDGE WILL
WEAKEN WITH EWD PROGRESSION OF ERN PACIFIC TROUGH INTO BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND ALBERTA.

IN THE LOW-LEVELS...INITIAL FRONTAL SURGE WILL PUSH EWD THROUGH NEW
ENGLAND AND THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY WITH TRAILING PORTION
OF BOUNDARY SLOWLY SETTLING SWD ACROSS THE MID SOUTH AND SRN PLAINS.
 MEANWHILE...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A CHANNELED
VORTICITY MAXIMUM DIVING SEWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH SEWD
INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY BY EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT.

...ERN GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND AND SWD THROUGH CHESAPEAKE
BAY...

STRONGLY FORCED CONVECTIVE BAND MAY WELL BE IN PROGRESS AT THE ONSET
OF THE FORECAST ALONG INITIAL COLD FRONT FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY/WRN
NEW ENGLAND SWD TOWARD THE DELMARVA.  LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT THE STRONGEST DESTABILIZATION WITHIN PRE-FRONTAL AIR
MASS WILL OCCUR FROM SRN NEW ENGLAND SWD ACROSS NJ INTO CHESAPEAKE
BAY WHERE MLCAPES MAY APPROACH 1000-1500 J/KG. HOWEVER...CLOSER
INSPECTION OF FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATES A RATHER WARM LAYER IN
THE 700-500 MB LAYER WHICH SHOULD TEND TO DILUTE PARCEL
BUOYANCY/UPDRAFT STRENGTH.  NONETHELESS...PRESENCE OF MODERATE TO
STRONG...LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELDS ACROSS FRONTAL ZONE
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS /BOWING SEGMENTS/
CAPABLE OF PRIMARILY DAMAGING WINDS.

ADDITIONAL CLUSTERS OF LOW-TOPPED STORMS MAY FORM ALONG SECONDARY
COLD FRONT OVER SWRN ONTARIO SUNDAY AFTERNOON ALONG LEADING EDGE OF
STRONGER LOW TO MID-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION.  SHOULD THIS ACTIVITY
REACH THE ERN SHORES OF LAKE ONTARIO PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF DIABATIC
COOLING SUNDAY EVENING...SOME POTENTIAL WOULD EXIST FOR ISOLATED
DAMAGING WINDS.

...CAROLINAS WWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...

DAYTIME HEATING COUPLED WITH A VERY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS /I.E.
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S/ ARE EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO A
MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT S OF FRONT WITH MLCAPES OF
2000-3500 J/KG.  WHILE BOTH VERTICAL SHEAR AND LARGE-SCALE FORCING
FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN RATHER WEAK ACROSS REGION...DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT A FEW VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS.

...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE SRN PLAINS...

CLUSTERS OF STRONG TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ALONG WWD EXTENSION OF SYNOPTIC FRONT OVER OK INTO NRN
TX...AS WELL AS IN POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE REGIME NWD ACROSS ERN CO/WRN
KS INTO SWRN NEB.  WHILE BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE WILL DECREASE WITH
NWD EXTENT...COMPARATIVELY STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER THE
CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG...TO
AS HIGH AS 2000-3000 J/KG ALONG/S OF FRONT OVER OK/TX. HERE
TOO...VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK WHICH SHOULD LIMIT
DEGREE OF STORM ORGANIZATION.  STILL...A FEW OF THE MORE INTENSE
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

..MEAD.. 08/20/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.