[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 180622
SWODY2
SPC AC 180621

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0121 AM CDT THU AUG 18 2005

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSW
EAR 20 SSE YKN 10 WNW RWF 45 NNE MSP 45 NNE EAU 10 NNW AUW 20 NE MKE
20 SW CGX 25 ENE UIN 35 N SZL 20 NW RSL 40 SSW EAR.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 W SJT 30 N ABI 45
SE OKC 25 NNW FYV 45 NW POF 25 SW PAH 45 E MKL 30 SSW TUP 35 NW JAN
25 WNW LFK 15 WSW AUS 35 S JCT 10 W SJT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW CZZ 40 S BFL
60 N SAC 35 WNW SVE 65 SSE 4LW 40 SSE OWY 45 NNW EVW 50 S 81V 55 NE
MBG 40 NNE FAR 35 E RRT ...CONT... 35 N BML 25 SSE LEB 20 SSW PSF 15
SW ABE 15 ESE BWI 10 NW WAL.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM WI TO NERN KS...

...GREAT LAKES TO ERN PLAINS...

STRONG HEIGHT FALLS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS
VALLEY AS MID-HIGH LEVEL FLOW INCREASE IN BASE OF DIGGING UPPER
TROUGH DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD.  ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT
WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY
AFTER 21Z.

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES THE IDEA OF TROPICAL MOISTURE
SPREADING NWD ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS/MS VALLEY REGION IN WAKE OF
DAY1 UPPER TROUGH.  THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG HEATING AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR SIGNIFICANT AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION FROM ERN KS
INTO IA/IL...MLCAPE VALUES AOA 3000J/KG.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS FAVOR
SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT THROUGH EARLY EVENING BEFORE STRONG FORCING
ACCELERATES STORM MERGERS AND EVENTUALLY MCS DEVELOPMENT.  THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD EAST AND SOUTHEAST INTO PORTIONS OF NRN MO/IL
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

DOWNSTREAM...THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OH VALLEY DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS. ONE NEGATIVE FOR THIS SCENARIO IS THE EXPECTED LARGE SCALE
HEIGHT RISES AND THE LACK OF A SIGNIFICANT SOURCE FOR LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE TO SUSTAIN ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS.  FOR THIS REASON LOW
PROBABILITIES WILL SUFFICE AT THIS TIME.

..DARROW.. 08/18/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.