[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 060553
SWODY2
SPC AC 060552

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1252 AM CDT SAT AUG 06 2005

VALID 071200Z - 081200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW CZZ RAL 15 WNW
PMD 40 NW TVL 20 NW RBL 35 ENE MFR 40 NW BKE 30 SW GTF 20 N BIL 20 N
Y22 65 NNE MOT ...CONT... 15 ENE ANJ 45 E ESC 20 SSW IMT 15 N VOK 35
SW ALO 40 SSW P35 15 NW SZL 20 WSW COU 30 WSW SPI 10 SE MMO 35 W BEH
20 N JXN 30 SSE DTW 20 NNE YNG 10 E ROC 25 ENE ART 25 NNE MPV 20 SW
BHB.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
BELT OF ENHANCED WLY FLOW IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THIS PERIOD ACROSS
THE NRN TIER OF THE CONUS / SRN CANADA.  MEANWHILE S OF THE MAIN
BELT OF WLYS...WEAK RIDGE WILL PERSIST OVER THE WEST WHILE LOW OVER
THE SOUTHEAST / CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION MAY EVOLVE INTO A BROADER
/ WEAK TROUGH WITH TIME.

REMNANTS OF OLD FRONT WHICH SHOULD LINGER ACROSS THE GULF COAST
STATES -- AND THE PERSISTENT UPPER LOW -- SHOULD REMAIN A FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS PERIOD.  HOWEVER...SOMEWHAT GREATER POTENTIAL FOR
MORE ORGANIZED STORMS / SEVERE THREAT SHOULD EXIST ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS REGION. SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIE DURING THE AFTERNOON...WHILE BRINGING A SECOND COLD
FRONT SEWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS.

...NRN PLAINS / UPPER MS VALLEY REGION...
INITIAL COLD FRONT FORECAST TO SAG SWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS SHOULD
RETREAT NWD AS A WARM FRONT EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WHILE SECOND FRONT
DEVELOPS / MOVES ESEWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF CANADIAN SHORT-WAVE TROUGH.  THOUGH CAPPING SHOULD INHIBIT
STORM DEVELOPMENT INTO THE AFTERNOON...CONTINUED HEATING /
DESTABILIZATION OF BOUNDARY LAYER COMBINED WITH LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE INVOF FRONT SHOULD ALLOW AT LEAST ISOLATED STORM
DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR BY LATE AFTERNOON.

THOUGH STRONGER FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE OF
THIS FRONT...LOW-LEVEL SLYS VEERING TO NWLY THOUGH MID-LEVELS MAY
YIELD SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR A FEW ORGANIZED / WEAKLY-ROTATING STORMS.
 WITH HAIL / LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS THUS POSSIBLE...WILL INTRODUCE
SEVERE PROBABILITIES ACROSS THIS AREA. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP
PROBABILITY AT ONLY 5% / BELOW CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK
THRESHOLDS...GIVEN THAT STORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED AND SHEAR
LIKELY TO REMAIN MARGINAL.  SEVERE THREAT MAY EXTEND AS FAR E AS ERN
MN / PARTS OF WRN WI BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...AS NOCTURNAL
LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD SUSTAIN CONVECTION OVERNIGHT.

..GOSS.. 08/06/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.