From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 1 05:31:01 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 01 Aug 2005 00:31:01 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200508010559.j715xgHF007938@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 010556 SWODY2 SPC AC 010555 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1255 AM CDT MON AUG 01 2005 VALID 021200Z - 031200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ENE ELO 20 WNW IWD 45 NNE EAU 40 WSW EAU RWF ATY 40 S Y22 50 NNW REJ 60 NNW ISN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S BHB 40 WNW 3B1 ...CONT... 65 NNE MTC LAN RFD 25 SSE ALO 25 S FOD LNK HLC LAA TAD SAF 40 W ELP ...CONT... 40 SE YUM LAS BAM PUW 70 ENE 63S ...CONT... 25 ENE CRP 40 WNW VCT MLU 20 WNW GLH MEM CKV 55 WSW LOZ GSO 40 WSW HSE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...SYNOPSIS... DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD FROM ALBERTA INTO MANITOBA DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE SRN EXTENT OF THIS TROUGH BRUSHING THE NRN ROCKIES/PLAINS. A STRONG COLD FRONT AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH SHOULD EXTEND FROM ERN ND SWWD INTO NRN WY BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...WITH A WEAK WARM FRONT LOCATED ACROSS NRN MN/WI. ...NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... SINCE THE STRONGEST DYNAMICAL LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH CANADIAN UPPER TROUGH WILL SPREAD ACROSS SRN CANADA...AND VERY WARM AIR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BETWEEN 850-650 MB...SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO BE INHIBITED MUCH OF THE DAY TUESDAY. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT A COUPLE OF DIFFERENT MECHANISMS SHOULD AID CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO STRETCH FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS NEWD INTO SRN MN. THIS VEERED JET MAY BE IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH...FORECAST BY BOTH GFS/NAM...MOVING EWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. ALTHOUGH AIR MASS WILL BE VERY UNSTABLE...AIR MASS SHOULD REMAIN CAPPED FOR SURFACE BASED. HOWEVER...STRENGTHENING JET DURING THE EVENING HOURS MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR ELEVATED/HIGHER BASED STORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS NRN MN AND PERHAPS INTO NWRN WI. EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 25 KT COMBINED WITH 1500-2000 J/KG OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT STORMS WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS. OTHER STORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT ACROSS WRN ND TUESDAY NIGHT AS RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET/UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SPREADS INTO THE AREA. THOUGH THE AIR MASS BETWEEN 850-650 MB SHOULD STILL BE RELATIVELY WARM...ACCOMPANYING HEIGHT FALLS AND LARGE SCALE FORCING SHOULD RESULT IN VERTICAL THERMODYNAMICAL PROFILES TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. ONCE STORMS FORM...DEEP LAYER SHEAR AT 30-35 KT AND MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY SHOULD PROVIDE A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS. DRY AIR ALOFT AND DEEP WLY WINDS ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY POSSIBLY EVOLVE STORMS INTO A LINEAR MCS...WITH THIS SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS ND OVERNIGHT. ..IMY.. 08/01/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 1 16:55:55 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 01 Aug 2005 11:55:55 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200508011724.j71HOZXx001703@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 011721 SWODY2 SPC AC 011720 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1220 PM CDT MON AUG 01 2005 VALID 021200Z - 031200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NW INL 45 WSW HIB 25 S AXN ATY 15 S REJ 70 SSE GDV 55 NNW MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE CRP 45 S LRD ...CONT... 15 NW DRT 25 WSW TPL 35 NNE GGG 35 E LIT 35 NW HOP 10 NE BWG 20 NW CSV TYS 55 E TRI 60 ESE LYH 35 SE ORF ...CONT... 20 SSE NEL 25 SE BWI 30 WSW AOO 55 NNE CLE ...CONT... MTC 15 NE AZO 30 ESE DBQ 35 WSW FOD 30 N OFK 35 WNW BUB 45 ENE AKO 20 E COS 35 WSW ALS 45 SSW GNT 35 SW DMN ...CONT... 40 SE YUM 45 WSW P38 55 ENE 4LW 55 NNW BNO 40 NE CTB. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PART OF THE NRN PLAINS... ...NORTHERN PLAINS... STRONG CAPPING IS EXPECTED TO HOLD OVER THE DAKOTAS FOR MUCH OF TUESDAY AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT FORECAST TO SLIDE SSEWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW BOUNDARY LAYER TO BECOME INCREASINGLY MOIST/UNSTABLE DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH INCREASE CONVERGENCE...LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM NEAR SURFACE CONVERGENCE AXIS WHICH IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM N-CENTRAL/NERN ND SSWWD TO WRN SD. AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER MODEST WLY FLOW ALOFT AND FORECAST SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST SEVERE MULTICELL CLUSTERS/LINES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS STORMS DEVELOP DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. LARGE HAIL WILL BE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT...ESPECIALLY AS STORMS BECOME ELEVATED AFTER DARK. ...NRN MS RIVER VALLEY/WRN GREAT LAKES... LOW LEVEL WAA REGIME WILL REMAIN FOCUSED INTO THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY/WRN GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD ALONG NOSE OF SWLY LLJ. CAPPING WILL LIKELY REMAIN PREDOMINANT THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS THIS REGION. IN ADDITION TO CAPPING...SURFACE CONVERGENCE WILL REMAIN DIFFUSE. THUS...HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN STORMS DEVELOPING DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OVER THIS REGION. HOWEVER...STRONG HEATING AND ABUNDANT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL WEAKEN CAP...AND LOW LEVEL WAA REGIME MAY SUFFICE FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO LATE IN THE DAY. SHOULD SURFACE-BASED STORMS FORM...SUFFICIENT SHEAR /I.E. 0-6 KM SHEAR AROUND 30 KT/ AND STRONG INSTABILITY WOULD SUPPORT LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. PRIMARY THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL OCCUR AFTER DARK AS WSWLY LLJ INTENSIFIES ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. RESULTANT STORMS WILL BE ELEVATED BUT WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY AND SPREAD INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY STRONGER STORMS. WITH QUESTIONS ABOUT DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT...AND LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL FROM LATE NIGHT STORMS...WILL OPT TO LEAVE AREA IN LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES FOR NOW. ...NORTHEAST... YET ANOTHER MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD FOCUS THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS INTO PORTIONS OF NRN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY. PRE-FRONTAL WINDS WILL REMAIN WLY...THOUGH CONVERGENCE MAY STILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL AT BEST...WITH THE NAM BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH ITS INSTABILITY FORECASTS. STRONG WNWLY FLOW FROM H85 THROUGH THE MID LEVELS MAY SUPPORT A DAMAGING WIND GUST OR TWO. HOWEVER...EVEN WITH THE MODERATE SBCAPE FROM THE NAM...OVERALL SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LOW. ..EVANS.. 08/01/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 2 05:34:32 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 02 Aug 2005 00:34:32 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200508020603.j726396H026975@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 020601 SWODY2 SPC AC 020600 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0100 AM CDT TUE AUG 02 2005 VALID 031200Z - 041200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE CMX 10 N AUW LSE 20 N ALO OLU BUB 40 NE ANW ATY 30 E INL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 E APN 15 NW GRR 25 NNW PIA 35 N SZL 10 E ICT TCC 45 NW HOB 25 ENE FST 50 W JCT AUS GGG 20 NNW PBF DYR HOP 20 SSE LOZ 25 SSW LYH 10 E ORF ...CONT... 10 WNW YUM 50 W DRA U31 55 NNE WMC BOI MSO 60 NE FCA. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND MIDDLE MO RIVER VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... DEEP UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM NRN MANITOBA EWD INTO WRN ONTARIO DURING THE PERIOD...WITH THE SRN EXTENT OF THE TROUGH BRUSHING THE NRN PLAINS AND WRN GREAT LAKES AREA. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND SHOULD STRETCH FROM NWRN WI SWWD THROUGH CENTRAL NEB AND INTO NERN CO BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. ...UPPER MIDWEST AND MIDDLE MO RIVER VALLEY... A CLUSTER OR TWO OF ELEVATED STORMS...AT THE START OF THE PERIOD... MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DAKOTAS AND WITHIN STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IN MN/WI AREA. HOWEVER...WEAKENING LOW LEVEL JET AND TIME OF DAY SUGGEST CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY NON-SEVERE. HOWEVER...STRONG HEATING IN THE WARM SECTOR AND STRENGTHENING CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR SURFACE BASED STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT BY LATE AFTERNOON. NAM AND GFS INDICATE A TIGHT GRADIENT OF MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY WILL EVOLVE JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT BY LATE DAY...WITH 30-35 KT MID LEVEL FLOW SUFFICIENT FOR STORM ORGANIZATION. THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND VERY HOT SURFACE TEMPERATURES...95 TO 105F...WILL PROVIDE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STORMS WITH STRONG AND SOMETIMES DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE...THOUGH THE RELATIVELY WARM MID/HIGH LAYER TEMPERATURES WILL LIMIT THE COVERAGE AND SIZE. STORMS WILL BE PRIMARILY THERMODYNAMICALLY DRIVEN AND SHOULD WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY BY 03-06Z AS BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES FROM THE STRONG OUTFLOWS. ...NERN CO AREA... LATE IN THE DAY...HIGH BASED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN LATE AS NELY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT PROVIDE LIFT AND ADVECT HIGHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WWD. EVEN WITH THE INCREASE OF SURFACE DEWPOINTS...THE FORECAST OF DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES FROM THE SURFACE TO 600 MB AND 500-800 J/KG OF SBCAPE WILL PROVIDE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR HIGH BASED STORMS WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS. THE MID/HIGH LEVEL WINDS WILL BE WEAK AS UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED IN SERN CO. SLOW MOVING STORMS SHOULD QUICKLY BECOME OUTFLOW DOMINATED...SO ONLY A 5% PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE IS FORECAST ATTM. ..IMY.. 08/02/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 2 16:49:27 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 02 Aug 2005 11:49:27 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200508021718.j72HI5VA022619@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 021715 SWODY2 SPC AC 021714 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1214 PM CDT TUE AUG 02 2005 VALID 031200Z - 041200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 E MQT 10 W GRB 45 NNW DBQ OLU BUB 40 NE ANW 30 NW INL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WNW YUM 45 SW LAS 55 W MLF 50 WNW IDA 10 NE DLN 30 WNW 3HT 35 ENE MLS 40 NNE DIK 60 N MOT ...CONT... 45 N BML 15 NW LCI 25 SSW EEN 30 WNW EWR 25 ENE BWI 35 ESE CHO 40 SSW RIC 25 ESE ECG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DTW 25 SSW AZO 45 SW RFD LWD 45 WSW HLC 45 ENE LVS 35 SSE 4CR 25 SSW GDP P07 45 E SJT 25 SSE FSI 35 E MLC 40 NNE UOX 35 SW CSV 25 WNW TRI 25 SE MGW 45 WSW ERI DTW. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER ERN PORTIONS OF THE NRN PLAINS ACROSS THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY... ...NRN PLAINS ACROSS NRN MS RIVER VALLEY... WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSE EJECTING SLOWLY ENEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS DURING THE DAY 1 PERIOD...WILL OVERSPREAD THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING ESEWD ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND INTO THE NRN PLAINS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY 2 PERIOD. MCS/CLUSTER OF ELEVATED STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF ND/MN WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHICH SHOULD SHIFT ESEWD ACROSS NRN MN AND WRN ONTARIO THROUGH THE DAY. ACTUAL SCENARIO STILL HARD TO DETERMINE ATTM...DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH MORNING STORMS. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR EARLY ACTIVITY TO INTENSIFY AND DEVELOP MORE SEWD THROUGH THE DAY AS HEATING OVERCOMES CAP INTO NRN WI/SERN MN/WRN UP OF MI. PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS WILL LIKELY BECOME VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE WITH 40 KT OF WLY MID LEVEL FLOW SUPPLYING AMPLE SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED LINES/SUPERCELLS. PERHAPS A SEPARATE AREA OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON AS STRONGER ASCENT AND SURFACE COLD FRONT SPREAD SEWD INTO MN/WRN SD. GIVEN COMBINATION OF EXPECTED INSTABILITY...SHEAR AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGHS...EXPECT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE DAY/EVENING FROM THE NRN GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID MO RIVER VALLEY. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE FROM DAMAGING WINDS...WHICH COULD BE WIDESPREAD SHOULD ONE OR TWO BOW ECHO SYSTEMS EVOLVE. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND EVEN A FEW TORNADOES CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED. ...CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES... THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WEDNESDAY...DUE TO COMBINATION OF AFTERNOON HEATING AND WEAK LIFT AHEAD OF SUBTLE MID LEVEL VORT MAX FORECAST BY BOTH NAM AND GFS TO SPREAD INTO CO. AS STORMS SPREAD EWD OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...THEY WILL LIKELY ENCOUNTER MODERATE INSTABILITY IN WAKE OF SURFACE COLD FRONT. STRONG/GUSTY WINDS SHOULD ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS INTO THE EARLY EVENING. WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT CONVERGENCE/LIFT ALONG NOSE OF LLJ...ACTIVITY MAY INCREASE INTO AN MCS DURING THE EVENING WITH ATTENDANT THREAT OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL FROM ELEVATED STORMS AFTER DARK. OVERALL SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LIMITED ATTM...THOUGH POTENTIAL STILL WARRANTS LOW PROBABILITIES. ..EVANS.. 08/02/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 3 05:32:34 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 03 Aug 2005 00:32:34 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200508030601.j73617Wm003579@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 030558 SWODY2 SPC AC 030557 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1257 AM CDT WED AUG 03 2005 VALID 041200Z - 051200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE SAN 25 S PMD 20 E NID 15 SSE TPH 60 SSE TWF 20 W MQM 20 W BIL 60 E BIL 35 NW BFF 25 NNW LBF 30 ESE OFK 25 W MCW 25 E RHI 20 E MQT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE 5I3 20 WNW SSU 50 W EKN 15 S PKB 55 ESE LUK 10 NNW SDF 10 ENE CGI 40 SSW UNO 45 NNW HOT 25 SSE HOT 20 SSE PBF 20 W TUP 10 WNW HSV 10 SSW TYS 40 SE 5I3. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... DEEP UPPER TROUGH FROM MANITOBA SWD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL SWEEP ENEWD DURING THE PERIOD AND LIFT INTO ONTARIO/QUEBEC BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. EVEN THOUGH THE STRONGER LARGE SCALE FORCING IS FORECAST TO SHIFT INTO CANADA...SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH WILL RESULT IN A RELATIVELY STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO DROP SEWD FROM THE NRN ROCKIES/PLAINS. THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH THE LEADING EDGE OF A COLD FRONT INTO THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY...ROUGHLY FROM EXTREME SERN LOWER MI SWWD THROUGH CENTRAL MO AND INTO NERN NM BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ...SERN LOWER MI SEWD THROUGH CENTRAL MO INTO SERN KS/NERN OK... HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER HUMIDITIES AND SHALLOW COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE LOW CLOUDS JUST BEHIND COLD FRONT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...STRONG SOLAR INSOLATION WILL RESULT IN STRONG HEATING AND ENHANCED CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT. EVEN THOUGH LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL BE MUCH WEAKER WITH FRONT THAN ON WEDNESDAY...PAST FEW MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN COOLING THE 850-700 MB LAYER 3-5C...RESULTING IN A WEAKER CAPPING INVERSION. THE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND WEAKER CAP SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH MID EVENING THURSDAY. NAM APPEARS TO BE OVERDOING INSTABILITY WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT AT LEAST MID 60 DEWPOINTS YIELD MODERATE INSTABILITY. THE MID LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE A LITTLE STRONGER ACROSS SRN LOWER MI/NRN IN AND NWRN OH....BUT THE EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR ALONG THE EXTENT OF THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE. THE WEAK WINDS ALOFT SUGGEST STORMS SHOULD BE SLOW MOVING AND ALSO QUICKLY BECOME OUTFLOW DOMINATED. BOUNDARY LAYER THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS MAY FAVOR A FEW SHORT LIVED MICROBURSTS...BUT THREAT APPEARS TOO LOW FOR MORE THAN A 5% RISK FOR SEVERE. ..IMY.. 08/03/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 3 16:20:17 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 03 Aug 2005 11:20:17 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200508031648.j73Gmo9A027162@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 031647 SWODY2 SPC AC 031646 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1146 AM CDT WED AUG 03 2005 VALID 041200Z - 051200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E MSS 25 N SYR 30 S JHW 20 W MFD 20 WSW LAF 10 NNW BMI 10 W MMO 30 WNW BEH 65 NNE MTC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CZZ 10 SSW RAL 40 NW DAG 40 SW DRA 45 SW SGU 30 NNW FLG 80 N INW 65 SE U24 MLD 25 N IDA 10 SE 3DU 30 E GTF 75 NE BIL 50 ENE COD 20 SSW CPR AKO 45 E BUB 15 ENE ALO 40 SSE ESC ANJ. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION WWD INTO NRN IL / NRN IN / SRN LOWER MI... ...SYNOPSIS... COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION / SEWD ACROSS MID MS AND OH VALLEYS AND CENTRAL PLAINS...AS MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN CANADA / ACROSS THE N CENTRAL AND INTO THE NERN CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH STRONGER FLOW ALOFT CONFINED TO NRN PORTIONS OF THE CONUS -- MAINLY N OF SURFACE FRONT...SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIMITED THROUGH THE PERIOD. ...LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION WSWWD ACROSS MO / ERN KS... THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION INVOF COLD FRONT. AS AIRMASS DESTABILIZES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION WSWWD INTO THE CENTRAL AND SRN ROCKIES. THOUGH MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT IN LOCALLY STRONG STORMS...STRONGER FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN CONFINED TO AREAS FROM THE GREAT LAKES NWD. IN FACT...MODELS SUGGEST THAT WLYS WILL EXTEND ONLY AS FAR S AS NEB / IA / NRN IL / NRN INDIANA...S OF WHICH MID-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AND NELY. AS A RESULT...GREATEST SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO EXIST FROM NRN IL / NRN INDIANA / LOWER MI INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...WHERE LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT. FURTHER WSWWD ALONG FRONT...WEAK / GENERALLY ELY WIND PROFILES SUGGEST ONLY A LOCAL / LIMITED SEVERE THREAT WITH DISORGANIZED / PULSE CONVECTION. THOUGH THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG BOUNDARY THROUGH THE PERIOD...SEVERE THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY WANE OVERNIGHT AS BOUNDARY LAYER SLOWLY COOLS / STABILIZES. ..GOSS.. 08/03/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 4 05:27:26 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 04 Aug 2005 00:27:26 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200508040555.j745tvRv023021@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 040552 SWODY2 SPC AC 040551 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1251 AM CDT THU AUG 04 2005 VALID 051200Z - 061200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CZZ 20 SW PMD BFL 40 NE SCK TVL 40 SSE TPH 55 N P38 50 WNW OGD MLD 35 NNW BPI CPR 50 SSE DGW SNY 35 NNW GLD RSL EMP COU MFD 20 WNW YNG ERI. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... THE SOUTHERN END OF A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING NEWD THROUGH QUEBEC IS FORECAST TO BRUSH THROUGH NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS TROUGH...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH NEW ENGLAND AND THE NRN ATLANTIC STATES BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE SRN END OF THIS FRONT WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY SWD AND EXTEND FROM DELMARVA SWWD THROUGH THE TN VALLEY AND THEN INTO SWRN TX BY LATE IN THE DAY. ...NEW ENGLAND AREA... LATEST NAM/GFS MODELS ARE A LITTLE SLOWER MOVING COLD FRONT THROUGH NEW ENGLAND THAN THE PAST FEW RUNS. HOWEVER...SATURATED VERTICAL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES AND LIFT AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUGGEST THAT EXTENSIVE CLOUDS/PCPN WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AHEAD OF THE FRONT DURING THE MORNING HOURS. IF SOME CLEARING/HEATING CAN OCCUR BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY...THUNDERSTORMS MAY REDEVELOP ALONG FRONT AS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. IF STORMS DEVELOP...DEEP LAYER SHEAR AT 30 TO 40 KT AND WSWLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS ALOFT MAY POSE A WIND THREAT. HOWEVER... UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY PRECLUDES A SLIGHT RISK. ...DELMARVA WWD THROUGH THE TN VALLEY SWWD INTO SWRN TX... CONVERGENCE AND DIURNAL HEATING OF MOIST AIR MASS SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE LENGTH OF COLD FRONT...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. WEAK WINDS THROUGHOUT THE TROPOSPHERE SHOULD RESULT IN SLOW MOVING AND OUTFLOW DOMINATED STORMS WITH LIMITED SEVERE POTENTIAL. ..IMY.. 08/04/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 5 05:09:37 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 05 Aug 2005 00:09:37 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200508050538.j755c4d8002686@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 050536 SWODY2 SPC AC 050535 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1235 AM CDT FRI AUG 05 2005 VALID 061200Z - 071200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE SAN 30 S RAL 45 NNE OXR 15 NE FAT 55 NNW SAC 10 E MHS 55 W BNO 45 NNE BKE 40 SE GTF 15 NNW 4BQ 35 WSW Y22 10 SE DIK 60 N ISN ...CONT... 85 NW ANJ 35 NNW EAU 10 SSE FRM 45 SE OMA 25 ENE STJ 35 SW IRK 30 SSE SPI 30 SW HUF 20 W CMH 20 NE PKB 30 WSW AOO 35 SE DOV. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... WEAKENING COLD FRONT WHICH SHOULD BE MOVING SEWD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND GULF COAST STATES / SWD ACROSS TX THIS PERIOD WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCUS OF WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS. MEANWHILE...A WEAKER / SECOND COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS / UPPER MS VALLEY REGION AS WEAK SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THIS REGION IN BELT OF WNWLY FLOW ALOFT. MODELS SUGGEST THAT CAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THIS REGION AHEAD OF FRONT SHOULD SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FOR THE MOST PART. MODELS HINT AT ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER NRN MN AFTER SUNSET...BUT SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TOO LOW ATTM TO OUTLINE A THREAT AREA. ..GOSS.. 08/05/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 5 16:17:04 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 05 Aug 2005 11:17:04 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200508051645.j75GjTZQ021875@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 051643 SWODY2 SPC AC 051642 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1142 AM CDT FRI AUG 05 2005 VALID 061200Z - 071200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE SAN 30 S RAL 45 NNE OXR 15 NE FAT 55 NNW SAC 10 E MHS 55 W BNO 40 ESE PDT 30 W BTM 15 NE SHR 10 E 81V 45 NNW RAP 45 ENE Y22 25 WSW DVL 75 NNW GFK ...CONT... 145 NE CMX 10 SW DLH 50 ENE ATY 10 SSW MHE 10 W HSI 35 ESE SLN 55 SSE OJC 20 SSE SPI 10 NW IND 20 W CMH 15 W HLG 30 WSW AOO 20 ENE NEL. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... MAIN BELT OF THE WLYS WILL REMAIN ALONG THE NRN TIER/CANADA INTO THE WEEKEND WITH GENERALLY WEAK FLOW ACROSS THE COUNTRY. THE COLD FRONT THAT CONTINUES TO SETTLE SWD INTO THE MIDDLE PORTIONS OF THE NATION WILL BECOME DIFFUSE ON SATURDAY. TSTMS WILL FAVOR THIS FRONT FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TO THE SRN PLAINS AND ACROSS THE SEASONAL MONSOON AREAS ACROSS THE SWRN STATES. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE WELL-DEFINED AREAS OF POTENTIAL ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS ATTM...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FL PENINSULA. ...FL PENINSULA... EAST/WEST COAST SEABREEZES WILL LIKELY BE IMPETUS FOR TSTMS AGAIN ON SATURDAY ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA. H5 TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT CHANGE MUCH FROM FRIDAY...REMAINING AROUND MINUS 8C. RELATIVELY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND STRONG INSOLATION WILL CONTRIBUTE TO VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WITH VIGOROUS MULTICELL UPDRAFTS LIKELY WITH POSSIBLE ISOLD LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ISOLD BRIEF TORNADOES COULD ALSO OCCUR WITH FAVORED BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS. ..RACY.. 08/05/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 6 05:26:56 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 06 Aug 2005 00:26:56 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200508060555.j765tIw0014871@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 060553 SWODY2 SPC AC 060552 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1252 AM CDT SAT AUG 06 2005 VALID 071200Z - 081200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW CZZ RAL 15 WNW PMD 40 NW TVL 20 NW RBL 35 ENE MFR 40 NW BKE 30 SW GTF 20 N BIL 20 N Y22 65 NNE MOT ...CONT... 15 ENE ANJ 45 E ESC 20 SSW IMT 15 N VOK 35 SW ALO 40 SSW P35 15 NW SZL 20 WSW COU 30 WSW SPI 10 SE MMO 35 W BEH 20 N JXN 30 SSE DTW 20 NNE YNG 10 E ROC 25 ENE ART 25 NNE MPV 20 SW BHB. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... BELT OF ENHANCED WLY FLOW IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THIS PERIOD ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF THE CONUS / SRN CANADA. MEANWHILE S OF THE MAIN BELT OF WLYS...WEAK RIDGE WILL PERSIST OVER THE WEST WHILE LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST / CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION MAY EVOLVE INTO A BROADER / WEAK TROUGH WITH TIME. REMNANTS OF OLD FRONT WHICH SHOULD LINGER ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES -- AND THE PERSISTENT UPPER LOW -- SHOULD REMAIN A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER...SOMEWHAT GREATER POTENTIAL FOR MORE ORGANIZED STORMS / SEVERE THREAT SHOULD EXIST ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS REGION. SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE DURING THE AFTERNOON...WHILE BRINGING A SECOND COLD FRONT SEWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. ...NRN PLAINS / UPPER MS VALLEY REGION... INITIAL COLD FRONT FORECAST TO SAG SWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS SHOULD RETREAT NWD AS A WARM FRONT EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WHILE SECOND FRONT DEVELOPS / MOVES ESEWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF CANADIAN SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. THOUGH CAPPING SHOULD INHIBIT STORM DEVELOPMENT INTO THE AFTERNOON...CONTINUED HEATING / DESTABILIZATION OF BOUNDARY LAYER COMBINED WITH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE INVOF FRONT SHOULD ALLOW AT LEAST ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR BY LATE AFTERNOON. THOUGH STRONGER FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE OF THIS FRONT...LOW-LEVEL SLYS VEERING TO NWLY THOUGH MID-LEVELS MAY YIELD SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR A FEW ORGANIZED / WEAKLY-ROTATING STORMS. WITH HAIL / LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS THUS POSSIBLE...WILL INTRODUCE SEVERE PROBABILITIES ACROSS THIS AREA. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP PROBABILITY AT ONLY 5% / BELOW CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK THRESHOLDS...GIVEN THAT STORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED AND SHEAR LIKELY TO REMAIN MARGINAL. SEVERE THREAT MAY EXTEND AS FAR E AS ERN MN / PARTS OF WRN WI BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...AS NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD SUSTAIN CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. ..GOSS.. 08/06/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 6 16:21:17 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 06 Aug 2005 11:21:17 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200508061649.j76GncuS021496@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 061647 SWODY2 SPC AC 061646 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1146 AM CDT SAT AUG 06 2005 VALID 071200Z - 081200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW CZZ 10 W RAL 40 WNW PMD 40 ENE SMX 25 S SCK 25 ESE UKI 40 SSW MHS 35 NE MFR 30 SE ALW 15 W GTF 40 NNW BIL 30 W REJ 35 NNW CDR 20 NNW SNY 20 NE GLD 25 S RSL 25 E CNU 25 ENE JEF 30 SE SBN 40 NNW YNG 10 SW MSV 15 ENE BID. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 ESE ANJ MQT 35 NNW EAU 15 S RWF 20 S ATY ABR 45 WNW FAR 45 WNW RRT. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...UPPER MS VALLEY REGION... FASTEST WLYS WILL REMAIN N OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER THROUGH SUNDAY. SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW REGIME WILL MOVE ACROSS SRN CANADA...SKIRTING THE NRN PLAINS EWD TO THE UPPER GRTLKS REGION. A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS...MOVING SWD IN WAKE OF EACH DISTURBANCE...WILL DIP INTO NRN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY...BUT WILL QUICKLY MOVE NWD GIVEN SHORT WAVE LENGTHS BETWEEN IMPULSES. ONE SUCH COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS SUNDAY AFTN/EVE. AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE VERY WARM AND CAPPED...LIMITING PROSPECTS FOR SURFACE BASED INITIATION ALONG THE FRONT. STRONGEST FORCING/LLJ SHOULD REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE BORDER WHERE SEVERE TSTM PROBABILITIES WILL BE MUCH HIGHER. MORE LIKELY SCENARIO WILL BE FOR ELEVATED TSTMS /POSSIBLY WITH HAIL/ TO DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG THE AXIS OF A SWLY LLJ/EDGE OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL CAP ACROSS PARTS OF NRN/CNTRL MN. THIS ACTIVITY MAY STREAK EWD INTO THE UPPER GRTLKS REGION BY 12Z MON. ..RACY.. 08/06/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 7 05:46:27 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 07 Aug 2005 00:46:27 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200508070614.j776EkGQ006906@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 070611 SWODY2 SPC AC 070610 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0110 AM CDT SUN AUG 07 2005 VALID 081200Z - 091200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MQT AUW MKT 10 W HON 35 NE PHP 40 S REJ 25 WNW REJ 50 WSW DIK DIK JMS 15 SE FAR 25 ESE BJI 25 E INL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNW VTN 55 S 81V 15 ESE LAR 10 SE COS 40 S LHX 25 SSW P28 20 E UMN BLV 25 SW MMO 30 WSW DBQ 35 SSE FSD 50 NNW VTN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SW MSS 15 ENE MPV 15 SSW PWM ...CONT... 10 WSW CZZ 20 SSE RAL 35 NW PMD 40 E FAT TVL 80 ESE 4LW 45 S S80 60 SE FCA 15 SE HVR 20 NNE OLF MOT 35 NNW GFK RRT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... SRN EDGE OF STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO SAG SWD ALONG THE SRN CANADIAN PRAIRIES/NRN PLAINS BORDER REGION TOMORROW AS SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS NOW OVER WRN CANADA MOVE EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PROVINCES. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS PARTS OF NRN/CNTRL MN THEN EXTEND WWD AS A QUASISTATIONARY FRONT ACROSS NRN SD..NERN WY..WRN MT. ...MN INTO WRN UPR MI AND NWRN WI... LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS OF 65-70F ACROSS THIS REGION TOMORROW. PLUME OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES (8-9 C/KM) IS FORECAST TO EXTEND EWD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO MN AND NWRN WI/WRN UPPER MI DURING THE DAY...CONTRIBUTING TO VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPE OF 3000-4000 J/KG. MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM THE ETA AND CONTROL RUN OF THE SREF ETAKF SUGGEST AN INVERSION NEAR 850 MB MAY INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE EARLY OR MID AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT COMBINATION OF DIURNAL HEATING AND LOCALIZED FORCING FOR UPWARD MOTION ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. ALTHOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR OF 25-30 KT WILL MARGINALLY SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION...VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP EWD INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS WITH GRADUALLY DIMINISHING SEVERE THREAT. ...PARTS OF DAKOTAS INTO MT... EASTERLY COMPONENT OF LOW LEVEL WINDS IMMEDIATELY NORTH OF THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN A RELATIVELY NARROW EAST/WEST AXIS OF MOISTURE ACROSS NRN SD/SRN ND INTO S CENTRAL/SERN MT...WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 50S IN ERN MT TO THE MID 60S IN ERN SD. THIS INSTABILITY AXIS WILL PROVIDE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT... INITIALLY OVER MT DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON WHERE UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL AID ASCENT...AND THEN EWD INTO THE DAKOTAS DURING THE EVENING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS OVER NEB AND SD AFTER DARK. THE STORMS OVER THE NRN PLAINS ARE LIKELY TO BE PRIMARILY ELEVATED NORTH OF THE FRONT...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD EWD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE FOR LARGE HAIL ALTHOUGH A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR MAINLY WITH STORMS CLOSEST TO THE FRONT. ..WEISS.. 08/07/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 7 16:02:36 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 07 Aug 2005 11:02:36 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200508071630.j77GUrdp005040@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 071628 SWODY2 SPC AC 071627 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1127 AM CDT SUN AUG 07 2005 VALID 081200Z - 091200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MQT AUW MKT 10 W HON 35 NE PHP 40 S REJ 25 WNW REJ 50 WSW DIK DIK JMS 15 SE FAR 25 ESE BJI 25 E INL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E UMN BLV 25 SW MMO 30 WSW DBQ 35 S MCW 20 N YKN 45 NNW BFF 25 W CYS 25 N COS 30 SW LHX 25 SW P28 20 E UMN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WSW CZZ 20 SSE RAL 35 NW PMD 40 E FAT TVL 80 ESE 4LW 45 S S80 60 SE FCA 15 SE HVR 20 NNE OLF MOT 35 NNW GFK RRT ...CONT... 10 SW MSS 15 ENE MPV 15 SSW PWM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO THE UPPER GRTLKS... ...UPPER MS VLY INTO THE UPPER GRTLKS REGION... SRN PERIPHERY OF MODEST WLYS WILL SETTLE SWD INTO THE NRN TIER OF THE COUNTRY MON. SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES ACROSS THE PRAIRIES AND INTO ONT. FRONTS ASSOCIATED WITH EACH WAVE WILL OSCILLATE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS...UPPER MS VLY AND UPPER GRTLKS REGION. ONE SUCH FRONT WILL SETTLE SWD ACROSS ERN MT...DAKS...CNTRL MN...NRN WI AND UPPER MI BY MON EVE. CONTINUED SLY TRANSPORT OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE UPPER MS VLY BENEATH A PLUME OF VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STREAMING EWD FROM THE NRN ROCKIES. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. SURFACE BASED PARCELS WILL LIKELY BE CAPPED MUCH OF THE AFTN. BUT...THERE IS EVIDENCE IN THE SREF AND LATEST NAMKF FORECAST SOUNDINGS THAT DIURNAL HEATING AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR TSTM INITIATION BY LATE AFTN/EVE. VERTICAL SHEAR OF 25-30 KTS IN COMBINATION WITH MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY WILL PROMOTE A FEW SEVERE TSTMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EWD MON NIGHT ACROSS THE UPPER GRTLKS REGION...BUT THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH WITH TIME. ...NRN PLAINS... NARROW INSTABILITY AXIS WILL DEVELOP ALONG/N OF SWD MOVING COLD FRONT FROM ERN MT EWD INTO PARTS OF THE DAKS WHERE ELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ADVECTS MOISTURE WWD. TSTMS ARE APT TO DEVELOP WITHIN THIS AXIS...PRIMARILY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MT INITIALLY WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW AIDS IN ASCENT. OTHER TSTMS WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP AFTER DARK FARTHER E ACROSS PARTS OF THE DAKS AS STRONGER LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS SPREAD EWD AND SLY LLJ STRENGTHENS. THESE STORMS MAY BE MOSTLY ELEVATED ATOP THE DEEPENING FRONTAL INVERSION AND WILL LIKELY DEVELOP EWD DURING THE NIGHT. PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL...THOUGH IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP CLOSER TO THE FRONT... DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE AN ADDED THREAT. ..RACY.. 08/07/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 8 05:52:15 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 08 Aug 2005 00:52:15 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200508080620.j786KVDT012016@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 080618 SWODY2 SPC AC 080617 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0117 AM CDT MON AUG 08 2005 VALID 091200Z - 101200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ANJ 45 NE GRB 25 SSE LSE 15 SW MCW 40 SW SPW 10 SSW FSD 10 SSE ATY 10 ESE AXN 20 ENE DLH. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 W CDR SHR 25 SW BIL 50 N BIL 30 NW MLS 50 NNW REJ 35 ESE REJ 45 SE RAP 50 W CDR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CZZ RAL BFL FAT 25 SW TVL 15 SSE SVE 75 ESE 4LW 15 ESE BOI 27U MSO 65 NW FCA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PVW GAG CNU STL MTO 30 NNE IND 40 S FDY 10 N CAK 35 WSW ERI 15 NE DTW 15 NE LAN 45 NW BEH 10 SSE RFD 15 SW OTM CNK 35 NW GCK 45 N CAO 10 WSW TCC 55 NNW HOB 25 W LBB PVW. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SRN MT INTO WRN SD... ...SYNOPSIS... BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS SEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CANADIAN PRAIRIES. WESTERLIES ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN FROM THE NRN ROCKIES ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SLIGHT AMPLIFICATION OF THE FLOW PATTERN. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES SWWD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE PERIOD AS A LOW MOVES EWD FROM SD EARLY IN THE PERIOD TO UPR MI BY 10/12Z. THE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE NWWD AS A WARM FRONT FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ACROSS ERN WY INTO WRN MT. ...UPPER MS VALLEY... ELEVATED MCS MAY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD OVER PARTS OF ND AND NRN MN TO THE NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE EWD DURING THE MORNING. THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO BE MOIST WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 65-70F RANGE...WITH MLCAPE OF 2000-3000 J/KG EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON. STRONG DIURNAL HEATING IN THE WARM SECTOR COUPLED WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE CAP. ETA/GFS/CONTROL RUN OF SREF ETAKF ALL DEVELOP CONVECTION NEAR THE FRONT BY LATE AFTERNOON FROM WRN UPR MI ACROSS NWRN WI..AND CENTRAL/SRN MN...POSSIBLY EXTENDING SWWD INTO SERN SD/NNERN NEB...AND NWRN IA. MID LEVEL FLOW OF 30-35 KT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THREAT FOR A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WITH POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ACTIVITY MAY CONTINUE TO SPREAD EWD AND SEWD DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALTHOUGH SEVERE THREAT IS LIKELY TO DIMINISH BY 03-06Z. ...SRN MT INTO WRN SD... LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD WWD FROM SD INTO S CENTRAL/SERN MT IN THE UPSLOPE EASTERLY FLOW TO THE NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOW/MID 50S ACROSS THIS AREA. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7.5-8.0 C/KM WILL CONTRIBUTE TO UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG. ETA AND SREF GUIDANCE INDICATE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTH CENTRAL MT...SPREADING EWD/SEWD TOWARD WRN SD INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO EXHIBIT STRONG DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEAR WITH HEIGHT AS ESELY LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER TO 40-45 KT WLY FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS...WITH 40-50 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THIS SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS TO DEVELOP WITH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY 06Z. ..WEISS.. 08/08/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 8 17:02:29 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 08 Aug 2005 12:02:29 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200508081730.j78HUhYg020114@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 081728 SWODY2 SPC AC 081727 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1227 PM CDT MON AUG 08 2005 VALID 091200Z - 101200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE APN 25 WSW MBL 30 S LNR 25 ESE FOD 30 NW SUX 55 W YKN 20 S HON 30 W STC 60 N EAU 30 SSE CMX 80 NW ANJ. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE CPR SHR 45 NNW COD 20 NE HLN 30 SSE CTB 20 NNW HVR 70 WNW GGW 40 NNE MLS 45 WNW REJ 15 NNW CDR 15 NNE BFF 40 SE DGW 35 ENE CPR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CZZ 25 NW DAG 45 ENE PRB 45 WNW SAC 40 NW MHS 40 SE RDM 20 NNE BNO 30 ESE BAM 25 WSW PUC 45 WSW CAG 15 E RKS 15 SSW JAC IDA 40 SSE BOI 35 ESE BKE 25 SSW MSO 50 NW 63S. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N GAG 15 S BVO 25 SE SGF 15 NNW COU 50 SW IRK 15 NW STJ 30 NNE SLN 20 SW DDC 40 N GAG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NNE ISN 40 NNW P24 30 NNW BIS 50 SW GFK 30 ENE FAR 25 ENE HIB 40 N IWD 65 NE CMX. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF MI WSWWD INTO SERN SD... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... WEAK WRN RIDGE / ERN TROUGH PATTERN ALOFT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE CONUS THIS PERIOD...WHILE STRONGER BELT OF WLYS SHOULD REMAIN OVER SRN CANADA / THE NRN CONUS. AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT INITIALLY FORECAST FROM UPPER MI WSWWD INTO SD SHOULD MOVE SEWD WITH TIME...LIKELY EXTENDING FROM LOWER MI WSWWD INTO KS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. MOST ACTIVE / INTENSE CONVECTION THIS PERIOD SHOULD DEVELOP IN A ZONE FROM THE NRN PLAINS EWD INTO THE UPPER LAKES...INVOF SURFACE BOUNDARY / BENEATH CYCLONICALLY-CURVED WLYS. ...UPPER GREAT LAKES SWWD TOWARD THE MIDDLE MO VALLEY... STORMS MAY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS / UPPER MS VALLEY / WRN UPPER LAKES REGION INVOF COLD FRONT. LOW-END SEVERE THREAT MAY PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON WITHIN STRONGER CLUSTERS OF THIS CONVECTION...WHILE ELSEWHERE AHEAD OF FRONT AIRMASS SHOULD BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. NEW STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP INVOF FRONT BY MID-AFTERNOON -- PARTICULARLY FROM NRN LOWER MI WWD ACROSS WI INTO SRN MN...JUST AHEAD OF MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WHICH SHOULD BE CROSSING THIS REGION. THOUGH STRONGEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD REMAIN N OF SURFACE FRONT...SHEAR NEAR / JUST S OF FRONT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME STORM ORGANIZATION AND ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS / HAIL. STORMS / LIMITED SEVERE THREAT MAY PERSIST WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS LOW-LEVEL JET WHICH SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS WI / LOWER MI SUSTAINS ACTIVE CONVECTION ACROSS THIS PORTION OF THE AREA. ...NRN HIGH PLAINS... ELY LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW IS FORECAST ACROSS CENTRAL MT / ERN WY ON COOL SIDE OF FRONT AS BOUNDARY MOVES SWD / WWD AND STALLS ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THOUGH POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT DRY THUS LIMITING AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION...INSTABILITY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SRN MT / ERN WY. WITH MODERATE WLY FLOW ALOFT FORECAST ABOVE VEERING LOW-LEVEL WINDS...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS SHOULD EVOLVE ACROSS THIS REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON / EVENING. THEREFORE...THOUGH STORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED...HAIL AND LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED. THOUGH CLUSTER OF STORMS MAY SHIFT EWD INTO WRN ND OVERNIGHT AIDED BY DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL JET...MORE LIMITED INSTABILITY ACROSS THIS REGION SHOULD YIELD ONLY A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT. ..GOSS.. 08/08/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 9 16:46:28 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 09 Aug 2005 11:46:28 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200508091714.j79HEcnf008826@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 091711 SWODY2 SPC AC 091710 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1210 PM CDT TUE AUG 09 2005 VALID 101200Z - 111200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE MHN 20 WSW CDR 25 NNW 81V 20 S MLS 40 SE GDV 30 ENE Y22 20 NNW MHE 30 SSW YKN 20 SE MHN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NNW LTS 10 SE OKC MKO 15 WSW SGF 15 SSE SZL 25 NE MKC 15 NNW SLN LBL 10 SW DHT CVS 10 SE PVW 10 NNW LTS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NNW DVL FAR 45 SSW AXN 10 NNE MKT 20 ESE LSE GRB 25 ESE ANJ ...CONT... 45 S VCT 25 NNE COT 35 SSE DRT ...CONT... 10 SE CZZ 10 E RAL PMD 20 NNE BFL 40 NNE FAT 15 SSW TVL 35 ESE SVE 45 NW WMC OWY 45 W SUN 65 NW 27U 75 NW FCA. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE NRN PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... IN RESPONSE TO THE BLOCKING HIGH OVER ALASKA...UNSEASONABLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL CANADA. BAND OF STRONG WESTERLIES ALONG U.S./CANADIAN BORDER WILL SLOWLY DEVELOP SWD INTO NRN TIER OF STATES IN RESPONSE TO THE LARGE SCALE CHANGES TO THE N. S/W TROUGHS WILL LIKELY BE EMBEDDED IN THE FAST ZONAL FLOW WHICH IS DIFFICULT TO FORECAST THIS FAR AHEAD. COOL FRONT MOVING THRU THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT BY WED AM WILL STRETCH WSWWD FROM SWRN ONTARIO TO IA AND THEN NWWD ACROSS PLAINS TO NERN WY/SERN MT. AS COOL SURFACE HIGH PUSHES SEWD FROM ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN...ANOTHER COOL FRONT WILL PUSH FRONTAL ZONE SWD THRU THE NRN PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ...NRN PLAINS... SELY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY NRN HIGH PLAINS RESULTING IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RESIDING S OF FRONTAL ZONE SPREADING NWWD. UPSLOPE COUPLED WITH INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR AS 40-50KT OF FLOW AT 500MB DEVELOPS SWD THRU DAKOTAS WILL SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS INITIATING OVER NRN HIGH PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON. 50KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MLCAPES TO 2000 J/KG WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...EVOLVING INTO AN MCS AS THEY TRACK EWD ACROSS SD/NRN NEB WED NIGHT. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE PARTICULARLY WITH ANY MCS THAT DEVELOPS. ...GREAT LAKES REGION... THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO WED AM NEAR THE COOL FRONT FROM SRN LWR MI TO IA. WHILE AIR MASS WILL BE MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AHEAD OF FRONT...THE MODEST LAPSE RATES AND WEAKENING DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL. A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY BY PEAK HEATING...HOWEVER MARGINAL SHEAR PARAMETERS PRECLUDES FORECASTING A RISK AREA ATTM. ..HALES.. 08/09/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 10 05:48:41 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 10 Aug 2005 00:48:41 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200508100616.j7A6GoWb023813@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 100613 SWODY2 SPC AC 100612 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0112 AM CDT WED AUG 10 2005 VALID 111200Z - 121200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WNW RRT 40 E FAR 25 S RWF 40 E SUX 35 ENE BUB 25 E AIA 45 ESE DGW 30 S GCC 35 WSW GDV 65 NW MOT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S ALO 45 S LSE 10 ESE LNR 15 NE CGX 10 S SBN 35 WSW FWA 20 WSW IND 10 NNW MTO 30 NE UIN 20 NNE OTM 15 S ALO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE OXR 50 ENE PRB 25 NNW TVL 15 SSE WMC 60 NE EKO 30 WNW MLD 15 SW BPI 30 ESE JAC 10 SSW DLN 35 S S06 10 SSE GEG 35 W 4OM 30 WNW BLI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE ERI 30 SE BFD 10 SSW MSV 25 NW ORH PWM 40 N AUG 50 NW 3B1. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ON THURSDAY ACROSS ERN IA/SRN WI TO NRN INDIANA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... BLOCKING HIGH OVER ALASKA COMBINED WITH AN UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER HUDSON BAY WILL MAINTAIN ZONAL FLOW FROM THE NWRN STATES TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND EWD INTO NEW ENGLAND. STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DIG SEWD ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA...REACHING SRN MANITOBA/SRN SASKATCHEWAN BY 12Z FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...A LEAD UPPER TROUGH SHOULD TRACK NEWD ACROSS QUEBEC AND THE MARITIME PROVINCES... WITH SEVERAL WEAKER DISTURBANCES TRAVERSING THE NRN ONE THIRD OF THE U.S. WITHIN THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. ...ERN IA/SRN WI/NRN IL/NRN IND... AN MCS...POTENTIALLY PRODUCING SEVERE STORMS...IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ACROSS THE MID MO VALLEY TO PARTS OF SRN MN AND IA. SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND MCV WITH THIS MCS WILL TRACK EWD TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION ALLOWING A WARM FRONT TO RETREAT NEWD ACROSS IA/IL/IND TOWARD THE SRN GREAT LAKES REGION. SWLY LLJ AND WAA REGIME SUPPORTING ONGOING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX ARE EXPECTED TO SUSTAIN WAA CONVECTION THROUGH MUCH OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS SUGGEST AIRMASS ALONG AND S OF THE RETREATING WARM FRONT AND ONGOING MCS SHOULD BECOME SUFFICIENTLY UNSTABLE /MLCAPE UP TO 1500 J/KG/...WITH MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTING MULTICELLS. A FEW EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS LOCALLY STRONGER. ...NRN PLAINS... A SURFACE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY FROM SWRN IA SWWD TO WRN KS ON THURSDAY AS A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL STATES. AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH WAA SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS...WITH THIS ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO TRACK ENE ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO ONTARIO. A PLUME OF STEEP LAPSE RATES SPREADING EWD ATOP A MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER WILL RESULT IN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN THE PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS. MODELS SUGGEST THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF ERN MT/ERN WY INTO WRN DAKOTAS...AND ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WHERE CONVERGENCE WILL BE STRONGER. INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR COMBINED WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS WITH THIS ACTIVITY. FURTHER INCREASE IN WLY MID LEVEL FLOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND SLY LLJ NOSING INTO NEB/SD SUGGESTS UPSCALE GROWTH INTO AN MCS ACROSS THIS REGION. FARTHER S ALONG THE QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY...INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME FAIRLY STRONG FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...WEAKER DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD PRECLUDE A WIDESPREAD THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS AND A CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK. ...SRN NEW ENGLAND... COLD FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS ERN CANADA ON THURSDAY...IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ESEWD ACROSS ERN NEW ENGLAND AND EXTEND FROM OFF THE NE COAST TO VA BY THURSDAY EVENING. STRONGEST MID LEVEL FLOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE POST FRONTAL AIR MASS. A PLUME OF MODERATE INSTABILITY IS PROGGED TO EXTEND FROM THE ERN MID ATLANTIC STATES TO FAR SRN NEW ENGLAND IN THE PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS...SUPPORTING SOME THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS THE FRONT MOVES ESE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY BECOME LOCALLY STRONG ENOUGH FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND...AS THIS REGION REMAINS ON THE SRN FRINGE OF STRONGER FLOW ALOFT. ..PETERS.. 08/10/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 11 05:35:26 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 11 Aug 2005 00:35:26 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200508110603.j7B63V4d003228@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 110601 SWODY2 SPC AC 110600 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0100 AM CDT THU AUG 11 2005 VALID 121200Z - 131200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CLE 25 S MFD 15 ESE DAY 20 SSE HUF 20 SSW STL 50 SSW SZL 30 E EMP FNB 15 NNE BRL 35 NNE CGX 30 NNE MTC. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE AKO 15 NNW CYS 35 NNW DGW 20 SSE 81V 15 SSE RAP 30 WSW ANW 45 W EAR 20 SW MCK 35 SE AKO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW CZZ 15 NW NID 25 ENE MER 60 SSE RBL 45 SE MHS 55 NE SVE 25 E LOL 65 E U31 15 ESE U24 10 NNW CNY 40 WNW ASE 35 SSW RWL 35 WNW LND 40 W 27U 25 NE PUW 35 N 3TH 45 ENE HLN 20 N BIL 10 E 4BQ 35 W ABR 30 N STC 20 NE IWD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NNW 3B1 15 SW ISP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE BPT 25 WNW HEZ 10 SSW GLH 65 S UNO 35 S JLN 40 S PNC 15 NNE LTS 45 SE MAF 25 SE P07. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SERN LOWER MI TO NRN MO... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HIGH PLAINS... ...OH VALLEY TO MO... LATE EVENING MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT NEWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY DURING THE DAY2 PERIOD AS UPSTREAM TROUGH DIGS SEWD INTO WY. THIS LEAD FEATURE SHOULD ENHANCE CONVECTION ALONG REMNANT FRONTAL ZONE WHERE LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE SHOULD BE FOCUSED FROM NRN MO INTO EXTREME SERN LOWER MI. DESPITE MARGINAL WSW DEEP LAYER SHEAR...IT APPEARS PROFILES WILL FAVOR BOW-TYPE STRUCTURES WITHIN A FAIRLY DEEP/MOIST...YET MODESTLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AND EARLY INITIATION MAY LIMIT HEATING ALONG OLD WIND SHIFT...HOWEVER DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ALONG ERN FRINGES OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD ALLOW THIS ACTIVITY TO SPREAD/DEVELOP EWD OFF THE BOUNDARY INTO A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ...ERN WY TO WRN NEB... THUNDERSTORM INITIATION WILL OCCUR LATE IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS REGION FROM WY INTO NEB AHEAD OF STRONG FRONTAL SURGE. MODELS INSIST A RATHER DEEP ELY COMPONENT IN THE LOW LEVELS...AT LEAST THROUGH 2KM...WILL MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS PARCELS NEAR THEIR CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES. FORECAST SHEAR PROFILES BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR STORM ROTATION AND POSSIBLE SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT AS FLOW VEERS AND INCREASES AT HIGH LEVELS WITHIN BASE OF SHARPENING UPPER TROUGH. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN MCS MAY EVOLVE ACROSS WRN NEB BEFORE SPREADING ESEWD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE. ONE POSSIBLE INHIBITING FACTOR FOR AN EXPANSIVE MCS OVER THIS REGION IS THE LIKLIHOOD OF SIGNIFICANT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS KS INTERCEPTING A MORE FOCUSED LLJ DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AT ANY RATE...THERE APPEARS TO BE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SUPERCELLS THROUGH MID EVENING BEFORE AN EVOLUTION TO A LARGER CLUSTER OF STORMS LATE IN THE PERIOD. ..DARROW.. 08/11/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 11 17:22:11 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 11 Aug 2005 12:22:11 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200508111750.j7BHoETK011035@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 111747 SWODY2 SPC AC 111746 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1246 PM CDT THU AUG 11 2005 VALID 121200Z - 131200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW DEN 55 NNE LAR 35 NNW DGW 20 SSE 81V 15 SSE RAP 40 W 9V9 40 SW MHE 25 SSW YKN 15 N GRI 30 SSE LBF 45 WNW GLD 30 SW DEN. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSE ISP 25 ENE IPT 30 S JHW 10 SSW MFD 30 ESE BMG 30 S STL 55 SSW SZL 30 ESE EMP FNB 25 SW LWD 15 SW IRK 20 WNW MMO 50 NNE MTC ...CONT... 35 NE PBG 40 E PWM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE CZZ 30 E RAL 60 S DRA 50 NNW DRA 50 SSE ELY 15 ESE U24 40 NW 4BL 25 N EGE 45 WSW LAR 35 WNW LND 55 SSW 27U 45 WNW PUW 15 NE 63S 40 N MSO 60 NNW SHR 25 SW Y22 40 NW AXN 10 SE ALO 30 N APN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE BPT 35 N ESF 40 NNW ELD 35 SE FSI 55 ESE LBB 10 SSE MAF 20 SE P07. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SRN NEW ENGLAND WSWWD INTO MO... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER ERN WY / NERN CO / SRN SD / MUCH OF NEB... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO EXPAND / SHIFT SWD ACROSS THE N CENTRAL CONUS THIS PERIOD...WITH STRONGER BELT OF WLYS AFFECTING THE NRN THIRD OF THE CONUS. COLD FRONT INITIALLY FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION SWWD ACROSS NRN MO INTO KS WILL SHIFT RAPIDLY EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND EVENTUALLY INTO NEW ENGLAND. MEANWHILE...FRONT SHOULD LINGER / PERHAPS DRIFT SLOWLY SWD ACROSS KS AND INTO NRN OK THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHILE A REINFORCING SURGE OF COOL AIR IS FORECAST TO MOVE SWD ACROSS THE NRN AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE IN THE PERIOD. AS FRONT MOVES EWD / DRIFTS SWD...IT SHOULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT -- AND ASSOCIATED SEVERE THREAT -- THROUGH THE DAY 2 PERIOD. ... SRN NEW ENGLAND / LOWER GREAT LAKES SWWD INTO MO... AS WARM SECTOR AIRMASS BECOMES MODERATELY UNSTABLE...EXPECT STORM DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION WSWWD INTO PARTS OF IL / MO INVOF SURFACE COLD FRONT -- AS WELL AS ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND INVOF WARM FRONT. THOUGH DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD WILL WEAKEN WITH SWD EXTENT...STRONGER FLOW ALOFT IS ANTICIPATED FROM NRN IL / NRN INDIANA EWD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AND INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND. THOUGH LOCALLY STRONG / SEVERE PULSE-TYPE CONVECTION MAY OCCUR ACROSS MO / IL / IN...MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION -- ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME HAIL -- IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AND INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND. SCATTERED STORMS / STORM CLUSTERS MAY CONTINUE INVOF FRONT / WITHIN WARM SECTOR THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...THOUGH SEVERE THREAT SHOULD SLOWLY DECREASE WITH DIURNAL STABILIZATION. ...ERN WY / NERN CO INTO SRN SD / NEB... THOUGH MAIN COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN S OF THIS REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD...WARM ADVECTION REGIME IS FORECAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS REGION AS BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW TURNS SWD OF SECONDARY SURGE OF COOL AIR. IN CONJUNCTION WITH DAYTIME HEATING...500 TO 1500 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE...WITH STORM DEVELOPMENT FORECAST -- BOTH WITHIN LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS NERN CO / SERN WY...AND MORE GENERALLY WITHIN LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF NEB AND SRN SD. WITH 30 TO 40 KT WLY FLOW ALOFT FORECAST ABOVE SLY / SELY FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE / SUPERCELL STORMS SHOULD RESULT IN A THREAT FOR HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. AS LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT...STORMS MAY MERGE INTO ONE OR MORE MCSS -- ALONG WITH CONTINUED /LOW-END SEVERE THREAT. ..GOSS.. 08/11/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 12 05:54:00 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 12 Aug 2005 00:54:00 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200508120622.j7C6M51h016005@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 120620 SWODY2 SPC AC 120619 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0119 AM CDT FRI AUG 12 2005 VALID 131200Z - 141200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE IPL 50 SW LAS 20 NW P38 30 WSW PUC 30 NNE VEL 50 WSW RWL 30 NW LAR 15 ESE CYS 40 SSW IML 15 ENE HLC 30 SW BIE 40 SSW FOD 45 SE RST 20 SE OSH 55 SE OSC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW ART 35 ESE AUG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S CRP 35 WNW VCT 35 SE CLL 25 NNE POE 45 ENE MLU 45 WSW MEM 50 S HRO 20 S DUA 35 SSE ABI DRT. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... NEXT IN A SERIES OF FRONTAL SURGES WILL REINFORCE BROAD ZONE OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS REGION...NEWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND. EACH SUCCESSIVE AIRMASS INTRUSION APPEARS MORE FALL-LIKE IN REGARDS TO FRONTAL SLOPE WITH WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR ALONG LEADING WIND SHIFT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG THIS ZONE OF INTEREST SUGGEST DEEP LAYER THERMAL PROFILES WILL PROVE COOL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EARLY IN THE DIURNAL CYCLE...LIKELY BY 18Z...IN ADDITION TO ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DUE TO WARM ADVECTION NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. IN THE ABSENCE OF STRONGER FLOW AT LOWER LATITUDES...IT'S NOT PARTICULARLY EVIDENT EARLY THIS MORNING WHETHER ANY WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL RIPPLE NEWD ALONG FRONTAL ZONE ENHANCING LOCAL CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION. THIS IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION WITHIN DEEPER PLUME OF MID-HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM NRN MEXICO INTO THE SRN ROCKIES. WITH TIME LARGE SCALE PATTERN AMPLIFIES ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. AT ANY RATE...DEEP...MOIST SWLY TRAJECTORIES ALONG FRONTAL ZONE WILL PROVE FAVORABLE FOR EPISODIC CONVECTIVE EVENTS...MODULATED BY DIURNAL HEATING FOR AREAS IMMEDIATELY SOUTH WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CORES NEAR THE WIND SHIFT...HOWEVER FORECASTING ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR ANY PARTICULAR REGION FROM NWRN TX INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND WOULD BE ARDUOUS AT BEST. ..DARROW.. 08/12/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 12 17:15:01 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 12 Aug 2005 12:15:01 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200508121743.j7CHh3gr024507@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 121740 SWODY2 SPC AC 121739 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1239 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2005 VALID 131200Z - 141200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW ART 35 ESE AUG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S CRP 10 WNW SAT 15 ENE AUS 35 ESE LFK 30 W ELD 40 ENE PBF 35 ESE PAH 20 SSE MDH 30 SSE UMN 50 SE SPS 35 NNE SJT DRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW IPL 20 W EED 45 W P38 35 WSW MLF 30 NE U17 30 W MTJ 35 W EGE 30 SW CAG 50 NE EVW 25 WSW JAC 40 ENE WEY 40 ENE RIW 35 W CDR 45 ENE ANW 50 SW FOD 20 E CID 20 SSE MKE 40 ESE OSC. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BROADEN / DEEPEN ACROSS THE N CENTRAL CONUS AS STRONG SHORT-WAVE TROUGH NOW DIGGING SEWD OUT OF WRN CANADA MOVES INTO THE NRN PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THOUGH STRONGER BELT OF CYCLONIC / WLY FLOW ALOFT WILL LIKEWISE SHIFT SLIGHTLY SWD THIS PERIOD...STRONGER FLOW SHOULD REMAIN N OF SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE. THUS...ALTHOUGH THIS BOUNDARY -- EXTENDING FROM SRN NEW ENGLAND ACROSS THE MIDWEST / OH VALLEY REGION INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS -- SHOULD BE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION...IT APPEARS ATTM THAT ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED. ...SRN NEW ENGLAND ACROSS THE MIDWEST TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... SCATTERED STORMS / CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...PERHAPS ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MO / MID MS VALLEYS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW-LEVEL JET. THIS CLUSTER OF STORMS SHOULD PERSIST...WHILE NEW STORMS DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES ALONG AND S OF BOUNDARY. ALONG WITH BOUNDARY-LAYER / SURFACE-BASED STORMS...STORMS SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP IN ELY POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS CO...AND IN WARM ADVECTION REGIME N OF BOUNDARY ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. DESPITE WHAT SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION -- PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOON...DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD INVOF FRONT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. ATTM...GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS APPEARS TO EXIST ACROSS CO WHERE VEERING DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD WITH HEIGHT COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED ROTATING STORMS PENDING SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION...AND ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION WHERE MODERATE WLY FLOW AT LOW- TO MID-LEVELS COULD SUPPORT A THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WITH SMALL-SCALE LINES. ..GOSS.. 08/12/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 13 04:51:34 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 12 Aug 2005 23:51:34 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200508130609.j7D691fc015758@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 130607 SWODY2 SPC AC 130606 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0106 AM CDT SAT AUG 13 2005 VALID 141200Z - 151200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E CZZ 25 ESE NID 25 S TPH ELY 50 SSE SLC 30 ESE VEL 50 WSW LAR 15 WNW CYS 20 NNW AKO 15 ENE GLD 50 NNE GCK 20 S RSL 20 W LWD 25 WSW RFD 35 WSW GRR 20 NE MTC ...CONT... 25 NNW SYR 20 ESE PSM. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...OH VALLEY TO SRN NEW ENGLAND... LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A CONVECTIVELY-INDUCED WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL WORK ITS WAY OUT OF THE SRN/CNTRL ROCKIES REGION...ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY INTO THE OH VALLEY DURING THE DAY2 PERIOD. DESPITE WEAK/NEUTRAL HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT...INCREASED VERTICAL ASCENT DOWNSTREAM ALONG OLD FRONTAL ZONE WOULD ENHANCE CONVECTIVE THREAT BY MID DAY FROM IND/OH...EWD TOWARD SRN NEW ENGLAND. MODELS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY AGGRESSIVE WITH BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR FROM THE WEST EXPECTED TO BE ROUGHLY ON THE ORDER OF 25KT. MULTICELL UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF EVOLVING INTO SHORT BOW SEGMENTS WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE GREATEST SEVERE THREAT. OTHERWISE...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP WITHIN A VERY MOIST PLUME NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 1.5-2 INCHES...FROM SRN NEW ENGLAND...SWWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS. ..DARROW.. 08/13/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 14 05:01:31 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 14 Aug 2005 00:01:31 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200508140618.j7E6Is9f007564@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 140616 SWODY2 SPC AC 140615 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0115 AM CDT SUN AUG 14 2005 VALID 151200Z - 161200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW CZZ 30 NW MER 10 S RBL 30 SSE MHS 60 E MHS 40 NW LOL 20 ENE BAM 40 ENE RKS 20 SE CPR 30 S 4BQ 45 NE Y22 50 N BIS 45 NNW MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 E DLH 40 NNW RWF 25 WNW MHE 30 NW MHN 40 W GLD 50 NNE GCK 35 N TOP 20 SW DNV 40 SE DAY 25 NW MRB 40 NNW ILG 20 SSE POU 15 ENE PSM. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST TO SRN PLAINS... LARGE SCALE HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN RISING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CNTRL U.S. AS FLOW BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED AND WLY ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER. DESPITE THIS SUBTLE CHANGE...AFFECTIVE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...STRETCHING FROM THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST...ACROSS THE TN VALLEY REGION INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUITE HIGH ALONG THIS ZONE WITH VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 1.5-2 INCHES. RESULTANT FORECAST SOUNDINGS YIELD NEARLY MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES NEAR THIS DECAYING FRONTAL ZONE WHERE NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OFF AND ON THROUGH THE PERIOD. GRADUALLY WEAKENING DEEP LAYER FLOW SHOULD LEAD TO FEWER DIURNALLY ENHANCED DOWNDRAFTS THAN IN PREVIOUS DAYS...THUS LOW PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ...NRN PLAINS... INCREASING WLY FLOW ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES WILL ALLOW LEE TROUGH TO BECOME MORE FOCUSED FROM SERN MT INTO WRN NEB LATE IN THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH WARM ADVECTION WILL INCREASE AFTER DARK ACROSS THIS REGION IT APPEARS ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAY2 PERIOD DUE TO WEAK UPPER RIDGING AND MODIFYING BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS. LATEST THINKING IS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP BY EARLY EVENING NEAR THE BLACK HILLS...AND DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALONG SYNOPTIC FRONT AS IT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS/NWRN MN. HOWEVER FORECAST INSTABILITY /FORCING APPEARS TOO MARGINAL TO WARRANT A PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME. ..DARROW.. 08/14/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 17 10:30:34 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 17 Aug 2005 05:30:34 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200508171148.j7HBm6s7015298@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 150555 SWODY2 SPC AC 150554 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1254 AM CDT MON AUG 15 2005 VALID 161200Z - 171200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NNW DVL 20 SE DVL 25 SE JMS 60 NE MBG 10 E Y22 70 SSE GDV 35 WSW GDV 50 N GGW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CZZ 25 W BFL 30 WNW SAC 50 W RBL 50 WNW MHS 10 NW 4LW 15 ESE TWF 40 N RKS 10 WNW CPR 10 E SHR 30 E 3HT 10 SSE HLN 40 W MSO GEG 45 NW 4OM ...CONT... 25 N ELO 30 NE IMT 15 SSE GRB 45 SSW LSE 15 NW YKN 15 SE VTN 40 N IML 55 SSW HLC 30 WSW CNU 25 SW JEF 20 WSW DEC 25 E MIE 20 NE ACY. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NRN PLAINS... ...NRN PLAINS... LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS HAS BEEN SLOWED BY PERSISTENT BAND OF CONVECTION ALONG OLD FRONTAL ZONE FROM THE TX SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE OH VALLEY REGION. HOWEVER...AS LEE TROUGH BECOMES MORE FOCUSED FROM ERN CO INTO THE BLACK HILLS AREA...A NARROW AXIS OF MOISTURE SHOULD WORK ITS WAY NWD INTO A REGION OF INCREASED INTEREST FROM ERN MT INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH NEGLIGIBLE HEIGHT FALLS/RISES ACROSS THE NRN U.S...BUT INCREASING LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SHOULD ENHANCE ASCENT NORTH OF SYNOPTIC FRONT LATE IN THE PERIOD. BEFORE THIS OCCURS...STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING WILL ENHANCE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES CREATING AN ENVIRONMENT SEEMINGLY FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS PARCELS REACH THEIR CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE. LATEST THINKING IS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL EVOLVE NEAR THE FRONTAL ZONE AROUND 00Z...THEN POTENTIALLY EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS MUCH OF ND DURING THE MID-LATE EVENING HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FAVOR STORM ROTATION AND SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF SUFFICIENT MOISTURE CAN RETURN TO THIS REGION. WITH TIME AN MCS MAY EVOLVE AS LLJ INCREASES INTO ND LATE. LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WITH OVERNIGHT STORMS. ...MIDDLE ATLANTIC... ERN EXTENT OF NEARLY STATIONARY DEEP MOIST PLUME SHOULD COINCIDE WITH JUST ENOUGH FLOW THROUGH A DEEP LAYER TO WARRANT A THREAT OF MULTI-CELL UPDRAFTS TUESDAY. IF SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING CAN OCCUR BEFORE CONVECTION DEVELOPS...STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WOULD FAVOR A FEW STRONG STORMS EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS OVER PORTIONS OF VA INTO NC. EVEN SO...ISOLATED WET MICROBURSTS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT AND AREAL COVERAGE DOES NOT APPEAR SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT A SLIGHT RISK. ..DARROW.. 08/15/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 17 10:30:32 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 17 Aug 2005 05:30:32 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200508171148.j7HBm4NK015286@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 141732 SWODY2 SPC AC 141731 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1231 PM CDT SUN AUG 14 2005 VALID 151200Z - 161200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NW ANJ 25 ENE VOK 15 N FOD 10 WSW BUB 20 NE MCK 10 WSW RSL 20 NNE EMP 40 N COU 15 SSW BMI 15 NE MIE 25 S CMH 10 ENE AOO 10 SE IPT 30 NW ALB 10 S LEB PSM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E OXR 30 SSW MER 15 NW SAC 45 SSE EKA 20 NNE ACV 10 S LMT 10 W OWY 35 SE VEL 35 WNW FCL 35 S DGW 10 WSW SHR 10 WNW MLS 30 NNW GDV 75 NNE OLF. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... BROAD BELT OF CYCLONIC / WLY FLOW ALOFT SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS THE NRN THIRD OF THE CONUS AND NWD INTO CANADA THIS PERIOD. COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WHILE WWD EXTENSION OF FRONT ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEYS INTO THE PLAINS SHOULD WEAKEN/BECOME MORE ILL-DEFINED WITH TIME. THOUGH WEAKENING FRONT SHOULD REMAIN A FOCUS FOR WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS...CLOUDS / PERSISTENT PRECIPITATION SHOULD LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT DESTABILIZATION. THIS COMBINED WITH THE FACT THAT STRONGER WIND FIELD SHOULD REMAIN WELL TO THE COOL SIDE OF FRONT SEEMS TO SUGGEST ONLY A VERY LIMITED / LOCALIZED PULSE SEVERE THREAT. THEREFORE...WILL NOT INTRODUCE SEVERE PROBABILITIES ATTM ACROSS THE OH / TN / MID MS VALLEY REGION. FURTHER NWWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS...WEAK DESTABILIZATION AND WIND FIELD EXHIBITING FAVORABLE VEERING/SHEAR COULD SUPPORT A LOW-END SEVERE THREAT ASSUMING STORMS COULD DEVELOP. ACROSS THIS REGION... MODELS DO INDICATE ISOLATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN WEAK WARM ADVECTION REGIME ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND INTO MN...AS WELL AS NEAR LEE TROUGH OVER ERY WY. HOWEVER...WEAK INSTABILITY AND LIKELIHOOD OF CAPPING ISSUES ACROSS THIS REGION COMBINED WITH LACK OF OBVIOUS LOW-LEVEL FORCING MECHANISM SUGGEST THAT ANY SEVERE THREAT WOULD REMAIN EXTREMELY ISOLATED. THEREFORE...WILL REFRAIN FROM INTRODUCING SEVERE PROBABILITY ACROSS THIS REGION AS WELL. ..GOSS.. 08/14/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 17 10:30:34 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 17 Aug 2005 05:30:34 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200508171148.j7HBm7EZ015301@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 151722 SWODY2 SPC AC 151721 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1221 PM CDT MON AUG 15 2005 VALID 161200Z - 171200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 N DVL 35 ESE DVL 10 WSW FAR 45 WNW AXN 25 E AXN 35 E STC 45 NW EAU 15 SSE EAU 20 NNW LSE 15 SE RST 15 NNE FRM 25 SSW ATY 30 NW MBG 30 SSW DIK 30 N GDV 60 N OLF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SW TUS 20 SE PRC 35 NNW EED 20 SE DAG 20 ENE PRB 40 E UKI 25 SE MHS 20 SSW 4LW 70 E 4LW 90 WNW OWY 30 S BOI 50 ENE BOI 55 WSW 27U 55 E S80 45 NE S80 40 W S06 20 SSW 63S 70 ENE BLI ...CONT... 20 WSW INL 40 W IWD 25 NW IMT 20 NNW OSC 30 NNE GRR 10 NW JVL 25 ESE FOD 60 WSW YKN 20 NE LBF 20 NNE GLD 35 E LAA 15 SW EHA 35 SSE DHT 35 WNW PVW 15 NW LBB 35 ENE LBB 30 E CDS 25 N FSI 35 NNE OKC 30 NE BVO 35 WNW SGF 10 SSE MTO 30 WSW CMH 25 N PIT 10 S ELM 10 N BGM 40 NNW MSV 35 NW EWR 15 SE NEL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE CAR 30 WSW HUL 45 SW 3B1 30 E EFK. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF NERN MT...ND/SD...MN...AND WRN WI... ...SYNOPSIS... BAND OF PREDOMINATELY ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NRN STATES ON TUESDAY WITH THE STRONGER IN A SERIES OF EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE TROUGHS BRINING A FRONTAL INTRUSION SEWD ACROSS THE ERN GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. THE TRAILING SEGMENT OF THIS FRONT WILL EXTEND WWD TO THE UPR MS VLY...AND NWWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS. HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT UPSTREAM IMPULSE WILL STRENGTHEN LEE TROUGHING AND ENHANCE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ASCENT ACROSS THE FRONTAL ZONE FROM THE CNTRL/NRN HIGH PLAINS TO MN. EXTENSIVE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE SRN STATES WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SINK SWD. RESIDUAL/DECAYING FRONTAL ZONE ON THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...WILL REMAIN A FOCUS FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION AMIDST RELATIVELY SLACK MID LEVEL FLOW. ...EXTREME NERN MT/DAKOTAS/MN AND A SMALL PART OF WRN WI... DESPITE SOMEWHAT LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN THROUGH MONDAY...A NARROW AXIS OF 60S F DEWPOINTS AND PERSISTENT WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER THE UPR MS VLY SHOULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODEST INSTABILITY FROM ERN SD ACROSS SRN MN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LATEST NAM AND ENSEMBLE RUN OF THE ETAKF BOTH FCST AN AXIS OF 1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE WILL DEVELOP BENEATH 30-40KT NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW ACROSS SRN MN BY AFTERNOON. FRONTAL CIRCULATION AND RELATIVELY WEAK CAP WILL SUPPORT TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THIS AREA WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND LAPSE RATES APPEAR TO SUGGEST ORGANIZED STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL. FARTHER NORTH AND WEST...FRONTAL ZONE WILL RETURN NWD ACROSS NWRN ND AND EXTREME NERN MT AS A WARM FRONT LATE TUESDAY. AS NEXT SHORT WAVE IMPULSE APPROACHES...INCREASING LIFT ACROSS THE FRONT SHOULD AID STORM INITIATION. STRONG DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEAR... ESPECIALLY AFTER DARK...SHOULD RESULT IN AN INCREASING THREAT OF ORGANIZED STORMS/SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS. STORM MERGERS AND STRENGTHENING MASS INFLOW ON THE NOSE OF LLJ ARE EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THE SEVERE THREAT INTO THE NIGHT ACROSS NRN ND. ...ERN WY TO NERN CO... INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THESE AREAS... COUPLED WITH DIURNAL HEATING...LEE-TROUGH CONVERGENCE...AND LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS...SHOULD ALL LEND SUPPORT FOR SCATTERED HIGH-BASED TSTM DEVELOPMENT BY AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE HAIL AND/OR HIGH WINDS GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 30-35KT. ANTICIPATED AREAL COVERAGE APPEARS LIMITED BY INSTABILITY AND FORCING. HOWEVER...PARTS OF HIGH PLAINS REGION MAY BE UPGRADED IN LATER OUTLOOKS AS SCENARIO BECOMES BETTER DEFINED. ...MID ATLANTIC... MODEST DESTABILIZATION WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS REGION GIVEN DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE AND DIURNAL HEATING. IN ADDITION TO SEA/BAY BREEZES...FEATURES AIDING TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE RESIDUAL FRONTAL ZONE STALLED ACROSS DELMARVA AREA...AND LEE TROUGHING SSWWD ALONG THE PIEDMONT. MID LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT MARGINAL FOR GREATER STORM ORGANIZATION BUT A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WLY FLOW OVER PRIOR DAYS IS POSSIBLE AS SHORT WAVE PASSES THE AREA TO THE NORTH. EXPECT AT LEAST A FEW MULTICELL STORM CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF STRONG DOWNBURSTS TO EVOLVE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. IF A MORE CONCENTRATED AREA OF STORM ACTIVITY CAN BE DELINEATED IN LATER FORECASTS...A SMALL SLGT RISK AREA MAY BE WARRANTED OVER PARTS OF VA/NC. ..CARBIN.. 08/15/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 17 16:29:15 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 17 Aug 2005 11:29:15 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200508171746.j7HHklqX009793@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 171744 SWODY2 SPC AC 171743 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1243 PM CDT WED AUG 17 2005 VALID 181200Z - 191200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MKG GRR 35 WNW FDY DAY LUK 40 SSE SDF BWG PAH CGI VIH 50 N SZL 55 ENE OMA FRM MKT MSP EAU CWA MTW MKG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE IPL EDW FAT TVL RNO WMC OWY SUN BTM HLN LWT MLS DIK 70 NE MOT ...CONT... 40 NNW BUF PSB MRB CHO LYH DAN RDU GSB HSE ...CONT... LRD COT SAT AUS SHV 35 ENE TXK FSM EMP BIE LNK OLU BUB BBW MCK EHA MAF 40 S P07. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS SERN MN/IA TO WRN OH/NRN KY... ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVE NRN STREAM FLOW PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW NOW TAKING SHAPE OVER SRN BC AND PACIFIC NW. THIS FEATURE IS PROGGED TO TURN EWD ACROSS SRN ALTA AND SRN SASK THROUGH PERIOD...WITH ASSOCIATED TROUGH SWD INTO N-CENTRAL ROCKIES. AS THIS GRADUALLY OCCURS...LEADING SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN VWP/PROFILER DATA AND MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER ERN WY -- IS EXPECTED TO EJECT EWD OVER UPPER MS VALLEY AND LM REGION. QUASISTATIONARY SFC FRONTAL ZONE -- NOW ANALYZED ACROSS NRN/ERN MT...SRN ND AND NRN MN -- IS EXPECTED TO BECOME COLD FRONT AS NWRN TROUGH/LOW APCH AREA...MOVING SEWD ACROSS NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND NRN MN. ATTACHED SFC LOW SHOULD MOVE EWD ACROSS NRN MN...WHILE MIDLEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVHD. WARM FRONT SHOULD LIFT NWD OVER PORTIONS IA/WI/IL/LM AND LOWER MI THROUGH PERIOD. ...MID MS VALLEY...SRN GREAT LAKES...LOWER OH VALLEY... STRONGEST DEEP-LAYER ASCENT IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR INVOF SFC LOW...AND ALONG AND N OF WARM FRONT OVER UPPER MIDWEST. HOWEVER...TIGHTEST FLOW GRADIENTS ALOFT AND STRONGEST DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY S OF SFC WARM FRONT ACROSS WARM SECTOR...FROM ERN IA ACROSS WRN IL BY AFTERNOON. HORIZONTAL DISPLACEMENT BETWEEN STRONGEST PROGGED LIFT AND STRONGEST BUOYANCY/SHEAR LENDS SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT LOCATION/COVERAGE OF CONVECTION..AND WHERE TO ASSIGN HIGHER PROBABILITIES WITHIN BROAD 15% ENVELOPE. HOWEVER...WEAK CAP IS EVIDENT IN MODIFIED ETA FCST SOUNDINGS...SUGGESTING ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING GUSTS, HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE. ALSO...OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM POSSIBLE MCS OVERNIGHT DAY-1 MAY MAKE PROFILES MORE FAVORABLE ON MESOSCALE AND OPTIMAL SEVERE THREAT AREA MORE PRECISELY DEFINED. GREATEST SUPERCELL POTENTIAL SHOULD BE INVOF WARM FRONT OR OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHERE SFC FLOW IS MOST STRONGLY BACKED...OPTIMALLY ENLARGING LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WHERE THERE STILL IS SUBSTANTIAL SFC-BASED INSTABILITY. MODIFIED MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW 0-1 KM SRH 200-300 J/KG NEAR WARM FRONT...AND A STILL-FAVORABLE 100-200 J/KG SWD TOWARD NERN MO/WRN IL DESPITE NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP-LAYER FLOW S OF WARM FRONT. WARM SECTOR EFFECTIVE SHEARS MAY REACH 45-50 KT. BUOYANCY WILL BE MAXIMIZED S OF WARM FRONT...AS VERY RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND SFC DIABATIC HEATING CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES 2000-3000 J/KG. STRONGEST DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL SHIFT EWD ACROSS IL/INDIANA DURING EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. AFTERNOON ACTIVITY MAY EVOLVE INTO EVENING/OVERNIGHT COMPLEX THAT WOULD MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS IL/WI/LM AND POSSIBLY LOWER MI BEFORE WEAKENING. DAMAGING GUSTS AND OCCASIONAL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE. ...UPPER MIDWEST TO WY... SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ALSO ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND BEHIND FCST SFC COLD FRONT...WITH ACTIVITY OVER ERN WY/SERN MT AIDED BY POSTFRONTAL UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE AND INCREASING THROUGHOUT DAY WITH APCH OF STRONG NWRN TROUGH...I.E. 50-60 KT OF 0-6 KM AND EFFECTIVE SHEARS PROGGED IN NERN WY. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE LIMITED IN THIS AREA...STEEPENING MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY YIELD ENOUGH BUOYANCY TO SUPPORT HAIL/WIND THREAT WITH STRONGER CELLS. ..EDWARDS.. 08/17/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 18 05:07:17 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 18 Aug 2005 00:07:17 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200508180624.j7I6OmOH014402@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 180622 SWODY2 SPC AC 180621 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0121 AM CDT THU AUG 18 2005 VALID 191200Z - 201200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSW EAR 20 SSE YKN 10 WNW RWF 45 NNE MSP 45 NNE EAU 10 NNW AUW 20 NE MKE 20 SW CGX 25 ENE UIN 35 N SZL 20 NW RSL 40 SSW EAR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 W SJT 30 N ABI 45 SE OKC 25 NNW FYV 45 NW POF 25 SW PAH 45 E MKL 30 SSW TUP 35 NW JAN 25 WNW LFK 15 WSW AUS 35 S JCT 10 W SJT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW CZZ 40 S BFL 60 N SAC 35 WNW SVE 65 SSE 4LW 40 SSE OWY 45 NNW EVW 50 S 81V 55 NE MBG 40 NNE FAR 35 E RRT ...CONT... 35 N BML 25 SSE LEB 20 SSW PSF 15 SW ABE 15 ESE BWI 10 NW WAL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM WI TO NERN KS... ...GREAT LAKES TO ERN PLAINS... STRONG HEIGHT FALLS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY AS MID-HIGH LEVEL FLOW INCREASE IN BASE OF DIGGING UPPER TROUGH DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY AFTER 21Z. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES THE IDEA OF TROPICAL MOISTURE SPREADING NWD ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS/MS VALLEY REGION IN WAKE OF DAY1 UPPER TROUGH. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG HEATING AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR SIGNIFICANT AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION FROM ERN KS INTO IA/IL...MLCAPE VALUES AOA 3000J/KG. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FAVOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT THROUGH EARLY EVENING BEFORE STRONG FORCING ACCELERATES STORM MERGERS AND EVENTUALLY MCS DEVELOPMENT. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD EAST AND SOUTHEAST INTO PORTIONS OF NRN MO/IL DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. DOWNSTREAM...THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OH VALLEY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. ONE NEGATIVE FOR THIS SCENARIO IS THE EXPECTED LARGE SCALE HEIGHT RISES AND THE LACK OF A SIGNIFICANT SOURCE FOR LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO SUSTAIN ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS. FOR THIS REASON LOW PROBABILITIES WILL SUFFICE AT THIS TIME. ..DARROW.. 08/18/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 18 15:52:43 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 18 Aug 2005 10:52:43 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200508181710.j7IHACTa023951@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 181707 SWODY2 SPC AC 181706 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1206 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2005 VALID 191200Z - 201200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW SYR 15 S PSB 10 SW EKN 10 SSW CRW 45 WNW EMP 35 SSE RSL 50 SSW HSI 30 S YKN 35 WNW RWF 35 NE STC 60 NNE EAU 25 SE MTW 35 NNW LAN 75 NNE MTC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW TPL 55 WNW LFK 25 SSE SHV 15 NW MLU 25 SW GLH 50 NE PBF 45 S UNO 25 SSW UMN 30 SW OKC 20 S LTS 50 ENE BGS 25 W SJT 40 NNE JCT 20 WSW TPL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N PBG 15 SE GFL 30 SW POU 15 WNW NEL 35 SSE NEL ...CONT... 25 SE SAN 30 N SBA 30 NW BFL 45 ESE BIH 30 NE TPH 35 WNW ELY 50 E MLD 25 SSW JAC 25 NW BZN 40 E HLN 20 W LWT 65 NE 4BQ 60 SE BIS 35 SE JMS 20 SSE GFK 80 N GFK. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID MO VALLEY EWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... AMPLIFIED YET PROGRESSIVE WAVE TRAIN ACROSS NRN TIER OF STATES IS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO AN ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER PERIOD FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. MORE SPECIFICALLY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY/WRN GREAT LAKES IS FORECAST TO LOSE AMPLITUDE AS IT PROGRESSES ENEWD FROM THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. MEANWHILE...VIGOROUS UPSTREAM SYSTEM /NOW OVER AB/SK/ WILL TRANSLATE SEWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES BY 20/12Z. WITHIN THIS LARGER-SCALE PATTERN...AN AXIS OF MODERATE TO STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW /I.E. 35-45 KTS AT 500 MB OVER THE OH VALLEY...INCREASING TO 60-70 KTS OVER THE NRN PLAINS/ WILL PERSIST FROM THE NRN PLAINS EWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...SURFACE CYCLONE ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD DISTURBANCE WILL DEVELOP FROM WRN LOWER MI NEWD INTO SWRN QC WITH ATTENDANT WARM FRONT ALSO LIFTING NEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL/UPPER OH VALLEY EWD ACROSS WRN/CNTRL NY/PA. A TRAILING...WEAK BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY EXTEND WWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY TO SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. PRIMARY FEATURE...HOWEVER...WILL BE STRONG COLD FRONT WHICH WILL PUSH SEWD THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS FRIDAY...AND INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES...UPPER MIDWEST AND CNTRL PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT. ...UPPER OH VALLEY EWD INTO WRN NY/PA... CLUSTERS OF TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING INITIALLY WITHIN LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME ALONG/N OF RETREATING WARM FRONT FROM LOWER MI SWD ACROSS OH AND PERHAPS ERN KY/WV. FORCING FOR ASCENT ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY COUPLED WITH INFLUX OF MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS ALONG WSWLY LLJ IS EXPECTED TO SUSTAIN THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS THE UPPER OH VALLEY INTO WRN NY/PA. WHILE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS FORECAST TO DECREASE IN WAKE OF WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE...RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND TRAILING...WEAK CONFLUENCE ZONE MAY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF IND/OH. GIVEN ANTICIPATED MODERATE INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS AND/OR BOWING STRUCTURES IN BOTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTIVE REGIMES. THOUGH A TORNADO OR TWO IS POSSIBLE...IT APPEARS THAT DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS. ...MID MO VALLEY/UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE LOWER/MID OH VALLEY... POTENTIALLY MORE EXPLOSIVE SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER DISCUSSION AREA IN ADVANCE OF STRONG MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 60-70 KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK. MOIST BOUNDARY-LAYER CONDITIONS /DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW-MID 70S/ IN CONJUNCTION WITH STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES INCREASING TO AOA 3000-3500 J/KG. MOREOVER...VERTICAL SHEAR WILL CONCURRENTLY INCREASE WITH APPROACH OF MID-LEVEL SPEED MAXIMUM WITH 40-50 KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR FORECAST ACROSS INSTABILITY AXIS DURING TIME OF PEAK HEATING. THIS COMBINATION OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT RAPID SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON ALONG COLD FRONT FROM SRN MN ACROSS IA INTO ERN NEB. INITIALLY...SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE LIKELY. WITH TIME...UPSCALE GROWTH INTO ONE OR MORE MCS/S WILL OCCUR WITH LARGE-SCALE ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTING EMBEDDED BOW ECHOES WITH POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND SWATHS SPREADING EWD ACROSS THE LOWER AND PERHAPS MID OH VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT. ..MEAD.. 08/18/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 19 04:41:46 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 18 Aug 2005 23:41:46 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200508190559.j7J5xD78023262@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 190556 SWODY2 SPC AC 190555 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1255 AM CDT FRI AUG 19 2005 VALID 201200Z - 211200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 E LIC GLD EMP FYV FSM OKC 20 ENE CAO LHX 10 E LIC. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WNW SYR ELM MGW 5I3 10 SW CKV BLV 10 ENE MTO AZO TVC 35 E PLN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CZZ 15 WNW PMD BFL 15 NNE FAT 45 SE RBL 35 ENE 4BK 40 ESE SLE RDM 10 SSE LOL TPH MLF EVW 45 N DGW LBF BIE LWD 20 SSE CID LNR 30 NNE VOK 45 WSW HIB 15 NNW INL ...CONT... 10 E GLS LFK 35 N ACT SJT 40 ESE P07. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SATURDAY/SATURDAY EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SATURDAY AFTN AND EVE ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS.... MODELS SUGGEST SOME PHASING/INTERACTION OF SPLIT BELTS OF POLAR WESTERLIES AND BELT OF HIGH-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES WILL OCCUR TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE U.S...FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. BY 12Z SATURDAY...A CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO BEGIN DEVELOPING WITHIN LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER WESTERN ONTARIO AND THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...BEFORE CONTINUING EASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY 12Z SUNDAY. IN RESPONSE TO THIS SYSTEM...SUBTROPICAL RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST STATES IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN. HOWEVER...RIDGING WILL AT LEAST TEMPORARILY STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND ROCKIES...IN WAKE OF LEAD SHORT WAVE...AND AHEAD OF ANOTHER... NOW DIGGING OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. ...OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES... MID-LEVEL NORTHERN BRANCH JET CORE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP EAST OF UPPER TROUGH AXIS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH STRONGEST HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO PRIMARY SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WELL NORTH OF THE CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER...NEAR JAMES BAY...WITH MAIN SURFACE FRONT NOT PROGGED INTO THE LOWER LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT. BOTH LATEST NAM AND GFS SUGGEST FORCING WITH LOWER AMPLITUDE SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH...JUST AHEAD AND TO THE SOUTHEAST OF MAIN NORTHERN BRANCH IMPULSE...WILL PROVIDE FORCING FOR VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BY MID DAY SATURDAY FROM PARTS OF MICHIGAN INTO INDIANA AND OHIO. MOISTURE RETURN IN WARM SECTOR FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THIS REGION IS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH HEATING...AND CAPE AT LEAST IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG APPEARS LIKELY. ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS OF STORMS APPEARS POSSIBLE...EMBEDDED WITHIN 30+ KT MEAN WESTERLY FLOW REGIME...WHICH WILL ENHANCE STORM MOTION AND POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY BY EARLY SATURDAY EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING. ...SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS... WITH BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINING SUFFICIENTLY MOIST AND POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE...MID-LEVEL COOLING ON WEST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN WAKE OF UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN CAP SUFFICIENTLY FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THERMAL RIDGE AXIS FROM EASTERN COLORADO THROUGH SOUTHERN KANSAS/NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...JUST AHEAD OF SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE...IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE FOCUS FOR ACTIVITY. WHILE THIS MAY OCCUR IN WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT TO THE SOUTH OF STRONGER WESTERLIES...VERY WARM DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT FOR A FEW DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS. SOME HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...BEFORE ACTIVITY WEAKENS SATURDAY EVENING. ..KERR.. 08/19/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 19 15:59:25 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 19 Aug 2005 10:59:25 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200508191716.j7JHGqVV023559@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 191714 SWODY2 SPC AC 191713 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1213 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2005 VALID 201200Z - 211200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NW MSS 25 N CXY 25 NNW SSU 25 S BWG 25 WSW DYR 15 SW FSM 30 E CSM 30 S DHT 20 W CAO 20 SSW LHX 25 N LAA 45 ENE DDC 10 S EMP 30 WSW PIA 15 ENE ANJ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSW RAL 25 NW BFL 40 NNE FAT 55 ESE TVL 30 N TPH 45 E TPH 45 NW P38 55 SE ELY 20 S EVW 45 SE RWL 55 NW CDR 30 NNW BUB 30 SE YKN 25 NW OTG 30 W AXN 15 SSW TVF 55 W RRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE CRP 25 NNE VCT 35 NW HOU 55 ENE LFK 30 NNE SHV 35 SSE PRX 30 SSW FTW 40 NNE JCT 25 WNW DRT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL/ERN GREAT LAKES SWWD INTO THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... AMPLIFIED LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY 2 PERIOD OWING TO STRONG MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW TRANSLATING EWD ACROSS ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES...AND A BUILDING RIDGE IN THE W. WITHIN THIS REGIME...A BELT OF RATHER STRONG...CYCLONIC...MID AND HIGH-LEVEL WINDS WILL DEVELOP FROM THE NRN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...OH VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY NRN APPALACHIANS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...PRIMARY SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL DEVELOP GENERALLY EWD ACROSS NERN ONTARIO...PRIOR TO OCCLUDING LATE IN THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE...A SECONDARY SURFACE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO TRACK RAPIDLY NEWD FROM ERN IA TO NEAR LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO BY SATURDAY EVENING...WHILE ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT SURGES SEWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY. ...GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY... CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT THE ONSET OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ALONG COLD FRONT OVER PORTIONS OF SRN WI/IL...PERHAPS SWWD INTO MO. DIABATIC HEATING COUPLED WITH MOIST BOUNDARY-LAYER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY /MLCAPES OF 1500-3000 J/KG/ ACROSS INFLOW AIR MASS OVER THE OH VALLEY AND THE SRN GREAT LAKES. THIS INSTABILITY IN CONJUNCTION WITH LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF UPPER LOW SHOULD SUPPORT STORM INTENSIFICATION/DEVELOPMENT EWD ACROSS THE MID/UPPER OH VALLEY AND SRN GREAT LAKES SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRONG...DEEP-LAYER WLY SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT LINE SEGMENTS AND LEWP/BOWING STRUCTURES AS THE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE MODE. HOWEVER...LOCALLY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND RESULTING INCREASE IN HODOGRAPH CURVATURE FORECAST INVOF MIGRATORY SURFACE LOW SUGGEST AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF A FEW TORNADOES ACROSS SRN LOWER MI/NRN IND AND OH. OTHERWISE...EXPECT THAT DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS. THOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD TEND TO DIMINISH WITH THE ONSET OF DIABATIC COOLING...STRONGLY FORCED STORMS ALONG COLD FRONT MAY POSE A DAMAGING WIND THREAT AS FAR E AS CNTRL NY/PA SATURDAY NIGHT. ...MID MS VALLEY WWD INTO PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS... DESPITE VERTICAL SHEAR DECREASING WSWWD ALONG FRONTAL ZONE...ANTICIPATED STRONG HEATING AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DEEPLY-MIXED CBL AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. SOME POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A SUPERCELL OR TWO OVER SERN CO/FAR NERN NM/SWRN KS WHERE MORE ELY LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL EFFECTIVELY ENHANCE DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR. ..MEAD.. 08/19/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 20 04:37:37 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 19 Aug 2005 23:37:37 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200508200555.j7K5t08W030835@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 200553 SWODY2 SPC AC 200552 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1252 AM CDT SAT AUG 20 2005 VALID 211200Z - 221200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CZZ RAL TPH U31 WMC 10 SE MHS MFR DLS GEG 10 SE FCA GTF BIL REJ BUB BIE TOP 40 NNW SGF CGI MVN 10 WSW SPI BMI FWA 35 ESE DTW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 WSW COT 10 SE AUS ACT ABI BGS FST 65 SW MRF. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... PHASING OF NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN BRANCH OF POLAR WESTERLIES AND HIGH-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES IS UNDERWAY NEAR THE CENTRAL CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER. CLOSED LOW HAS EVOLVED WITHIN LARGE UPPER TROUGH...WHICH WILL PROGRESS THROUGH MUCH OF ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY EARLY SUNDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE AMPLIFICATION AND SLOW SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESSION OF UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY...SUPPRESSING SUBTROPICAL RIDGING EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SIGNIFICANT COOLING/DRYING THROUGH ALL BUT THE SOUTH ATLANTIC AND GULF COAST STATES BY 12Z MONDAY. IN WAKE OF EASTERN TROUGH...SPLIT HIGH-LEVEL FLOW REGIME WILL PREVAIL FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. SHORT WAVE RIDGE...DEVELOPING IN NORTHERN STREAM OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TODAY...WILL BEGIN TO DAMPEN...AS NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO MIGRATE INLAND OFF THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC. MEANWHILE...WEAKER SOUTHERN STREAM WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ZONAL...EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. ...NORTHEAST... MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST MID-LEVEL WIND SHIFT/ASSOCIATED DRYING WILL OVERSPREAD MID AND NORTH ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS EARLY IN THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...STRONGER LOW-LEVEL COOLING IS NOT PROGGED SOUTHEAST OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION UNTIL LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...IN ASSOCIATION WITH DIGGING SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN BROADER SCALE UPPER TROUGH. THUS...SUBSTANTIAL HEATING SEEMS LIKELY TO OCCUR IN THE LEE OF APPALACHIANS... ALONG AN AXIS FROM CENTRAL/EASTERN MARYLAND INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WITH WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW FORECAST TO MAINTAIN MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER NEAR COASTAL AREAS...THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION FROM THE DELMARVA PENINSULA THROUGH NEW JERSEY INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MIXED LAYER CAPE AS HIGH AS 2000+ J/KG APPEARS POSSIBLE BY PEAK HEATING...WHICH MAY PROVIDE PRIMARY FORCING FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK. WITH AT LEAST WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS POSSIBLE...MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR SHORT-LIVED UPDRAFT ROTATION AND SOME THREAT OF GUSTY WINDS/HAIL IN STRONGEST CELLS. OTHER SCATTERED STORMS WITH HAIL/GUSTY WINDS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ALONG LEADING EDGE OF COLD CORE OF UPPER TROUGH...AS IT SPREADS EAST OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH FAIRLY RAPIDLY EARLY SUNDAY EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ...NORTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE SOUTH/WEST OF FRONTAL ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH EASTERN TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A FOCUS FOR WEAK TO MODERATE DESTABILIZATION ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING/SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA/NORTHEAST COLORADO. AIDED BY WEAK SUBTROPICAL STREAM IMPULSE...SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THOUGH SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE WEAK...WARM DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER MAY CONTRIBUTE TO A FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT FOR AN ISOLATED DOWNBURST OR TWO. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. AS LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION STRENGTHENS WITH DEVELOPMENT OF LOW-LEVEL JET SUNDAY EVENING...STORMS COULD BE SLOW TO DIMINISH. BUT...STABILIZATION OF BOUNDARY LAYER WITH LOSS OF HEATING IS EXPECTED TO END LIMITED SEVERE THREAT DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. ...SOUTHERN TIER STATES... PERTURBATIONS EMBEDDED WITHIN MOIST PLUME ON SOUTHERN FRINGE OF SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES...FROM THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU INTO BASE OF EASTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF STORMS SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. SUPPORTED PRIMARILY BY FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENTS...STRONGEST STORMS MAY PRODUCE SOME HAIL OR STRONG WIND GUSTS...BUT THESE EVENTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY MINOR OR HIGHLY LOCALIZED. ..KERR.. 08/20/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 20 16:15:33 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 20 Aug 2005 11:15:33 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200508201732.j7KHWtC3013193@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 201730 SWODY2 SPC AC 201728 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1228 PM CDT SAT AUG 20 2005 VALID 211200Z - 221200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW MFE 35 NNW VCT 25 NW AUS 40 ESE SJT 50 E FST 25 SW FST 65 SW MRF ...CONT... 40 SE YUM 60 WSW PRC 25 W CDC 30 NNW ELY WMC 10 SE MHS MFR DLS GEG 10 SE FCA GTF BIL 45 E 81V BUB BIE 10 ESE TOP 35 WNW TBN 35 NW CGI 40 ENE EVV 40 N LEX 45 SSW CMH 35 SW CAK 40 NE CLE. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... INTENSE...MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS QUEBEC SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT WITH AMPLIFICATION OF LARGER-SCALE TROUGH FROM ERN CANADA SWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...OH VALLEY AND NERN STATES. THIS WILL SUPPORT SWD DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE TO STRONG MID TO HIGH-LEVEL WIND FIELDS ACROSS THE UPPER OH VALLEY...NEW ENGLAND AND MID ATLANTIC COAST. IN THE W...NRN EXTENSION OF DOMINANT RIDGE WILL WEAKEN WITH EWD PROGRESSION OF ERN PACIFIC TROUGH INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALBERTA. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...INITIAL FRONTAL SURGE WILL PUSH EWD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND AND THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY WITH TRAILING PORTION OF BOUNDARY SLOWLY SETTLING SWD ACROSS THE MID SOUTH AND SRN PLAINS. MEANWHILE...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A CHANNELED VORTICITY MAXIMUM DIVING SEWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH SEWD INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY BY EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT. ...ERN GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND AND SWD THROUGH CHESAPEAKE BAY... STRONGLY FORCED CONVECTIVE BAND MAY WELL BE IN PROGRESS AT THE ONSET OF THE FORECAST ALONG INITIAL COLD FRONT FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY/WRN NEW ENGLAND SWD TOWARD THE DELMARVA. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE STRONGEST DESTABILIZATION WITHIN PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS WILL OCCUR FROM SRN NEW ENGLAND SWD ACROSS NJ INTO CHESAPEAKE BAY WHERE MLCAPES MAY APPROACH 1000-1500 J/KG. HOWEVER...CLOSER INSPECTION OF FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATES A RATHER WARM LAYER IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER WHICH SHOULD TEND TO DILUTE PARCEL BUOYANCY/UPDRAFT STRENGTH. NONETHELESS...PRESENCE OF MODERATE TO STRONG...LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELDS ACROSS FRONTAL ZONE SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS /BOWING SEGMENTS/ CAPABLE OF PRIMARILY DAMAGING WINDS. ADDITIONAL CLUSTERS OF LOW-TOPPED STORMS MAY FORM ALONG SECONDARY COLD FRONT OVER SWRN ONTARIO SUNDAY AFTERNOON ALONG LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER LOW TO MID-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION. SHOULD THIS ACTIVITY REACH THE ERN SHORES OF LAKE ONTARIO PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF DIABATIC COOLING SUNDAY EVENING...SOME POTENTIAL WOULD EXIST FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS. ...CAROLINAS WWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY... DAYTIME HEATING COUPLED WITH A VERY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS /I.E. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S/ ARE EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO A MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT S OF FRONT WITH MLCAPES OF 2000-3500 J/KG. WHILE BOTH VERTICAL SHEAR AND LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN RATHER WEAK ACROSS REGION...DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT A FEW VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS. ...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE SRN PLAINS... CLUSTERS OF STRONG TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG WWD EXTENSION OF SYNOPTIC FRONT OVER OK INTO NRN TX...AS WELL AS IN POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE REGIME NWD ACROSS ERN CO/WRN KS INTO SWRN NEB. WHILE BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE WILL DECREASE WITH NWD EXTENT...COMPARATIVELY STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG...TO AS HIGH AS 2000-3000 J/KG ALONG/S OF FRONT OVER OK/TX. HERE TOO...VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK WHICH SHOULD LIMIT DEGREE OF STORM ORGANIZATION. STILL...A FEW OF THE MORE INTENSE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ..MEAD.. 08/20/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 21 04:36:28 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 20 Aug 2005 23:36:28 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200508210553.j7L5rmOr003691@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 210552 SWODY2 SPC AC 210551 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1251 AM CDT SUN AUG 21 2005 VALID 221200Z - 231200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 ESE YUM IGM DRA RNO SVE 4LW PDT 30 N 63S ...CONT... 70 NE ISN 10 ESE Y22 35 ESE GRI TOP TBN 10 SE POF MKL 10 E MSL RMG AVL HKY 15 NE ORF ...CONT... 20 S DRT AUS ACT ABI FST 80 WNW MRF. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ALTHOUGH DISCREPANCIES EXIST AMONG MODELS/MODEL RUNS WITH REGARD TO EVOLUTION OF SMALLER SCALE FEATURES...LATEST NAM/GFS AND SHORT-RANGE ENSEMBLE FORECASTS SUGGEST AMPLIFIED WAVES WITHIN SPLIT BELTS OF POLAR WESTERLIES WILL REMAIN SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. LEAD TROUGH...WITH EMBEDDED CLOSED LOW...WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD NORTH ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS MONDAY. BROADER-SCALE UPSTREAM TROUGH IS STILL IN THE PROCESS OF EVOLVING...IN ASSOCIATION WITH NORTHEAST PACIFIC SHORT WAVE MIGRATING INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES...AND ANOTHER DIGGING STRONGLY OUT OF ALASKA. LATTER FEATURE IS PROGGED TO DIG ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA DURING THE DAY MONDAY...INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST STATES BY EARLY TUESDAY...AS FORMER LIFTS INTO NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA. IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPMENTS IN MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES... SUBTROPICAL RIDGING ACROSS THE U.S. WILL CONTINUE TO BE SUPPRESSED. SUBSTANTIAL COOLING/DRYING IN LOWER-LEVELS EAST OF THE ROCKIES WILL CONFINE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO SOUTH ATLANTIC/GULF COASTAL AREAS AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. IT WILL REMAIN WARM ACROSS THE WEST...BUT COOLING AT MID-LEVELS IS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE GREAT BASIN...AND THE ROCKIES. ...MONTANA... MODELS SUGGEST EVOLVING UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE CYCLONE IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES MONDAY...WITH LOW DEEPENING AND MIGRATING INTO EASTERN MONTANA MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY BECOME A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS CENTRAL MONTANA...NEAR/SHORTLY AFTER PEAK HEATING. ALTHOUGH LAPSE RATES SHOULD BECOME RATHER STEEP...LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SEEMS LIKELY TO MINIMIZE MAGNITUDE OF DESTABILIZATION. COUPLED WITH WEAK SHEAR PROFILES...SOUTH OF STRONGER BELT OF FLOW TO THE NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER...RISK OF SEVERE STORMS APPEARS SMALL AT THE PRESENT TIME. ...SOUTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THROUGH GULF COAST STATES... SEASONABLY MOIST/UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL PERSIST...AND WEAK IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN FLATTENING SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES SHOULD AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MONDAY. FORCING MAY BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF ONE OR MORE STORM CLUSTERS...WHICH COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG GUSTY WINDS...DESPITE PRESENCE OF WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER...TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH REGARD TO THE PROGRESSION OF THESE FEATURES TO CONFIDENTLY DELINEATE LOW PROBABILITY SEVERE THREAT AREA. ..KERR.. 08/21/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 21 15:27:25 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 21 Aug 2005 10:27:25 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200508211644.j7LGihOr021818@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 211638 SWODY2 SPC AC 211637 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1137 AM CDT SUN AUG 21 2005 VALID 221200Z - 231200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 SSW GBN 40 ENE PHX 20 NE FLG 35 SE SGU 65 N DRA RNO SVE 4LW PDT 30 N 63S ...CONT... 70 NE ISN 10 ESE Y22 35 ESE GRI TOP TBN 10 SE POF MKL 25 NNE MSL 20 W CHA 20 NW AVL HKY 15 NE ORF ...CONT... 25 E MFE 30 WNW VCT 20 ENE TPL ABI FST 75 W MRF. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... AMPLIFICATION OF LARGE-SCALE PATTERN IS FORECAST OVER THE CONUS AND SRN CANADA THROUGH THE DAY 2 PERIOD WITH PRIMARY FEATURES BEING SLOW-MOVING UPPER LOW OVER SERN CANADA AND THE NERN STATES...AND EVOLVING UPPER TROUGH OVER WRN CANADA INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN W. BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS...SMALLER-SCALE CIRCULATIONS/SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CURRENTLY OVER CO AND THE NRN TX PNHDL WILL PROGRESSIVELY WEAKEN OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT WITHIN BASE OF SW-NE ORIENTED RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS TO JAMES BAY. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...QUASI-STATIONARY SYNOPTIC FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE NC COAST ACROSS THE SERN STATES...LOWER MS VALLEY AND THEN NWWD THROUGH THE RED RIVER VALLEY TO DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER CNTRL MT. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH EVOLVING WRN CANADA/U.S. TROUGH WILL PUSH SEWD THROUGH THE CANADIAN ROCKIES...PACIFIC NW AND INTO THE NRN ROCKIES DURING THE PERIOD. ...KS/OK/N TX... A MOIST BOUNDARY-LAYER CHARACTERIZED BY DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WILL PERSIST INVOF AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL ZONE. WHEN COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND MODESTLY STEEP LOW- TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AFTERNOON AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF 1500-2500 J/KG. A RELATIVELY WEAK CAP ALONG WITH SOME LARGE-SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKENING UPPER SYSTEMS OVER KS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY INVOF FRONTAL ZONE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WHILE OVERALL MAGNITUDE OF TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELDS WILL REMAIN MODEST TO WEAK...FORECAST HODOGRAPHS INDICATE STRONG VEERING WITH HEIGHT THROUGH THE LOWEST 3 KM AGL WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEARS APPROACHING 30-35 KTS. GIVEN THIS COMBINATION OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. STORMS SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN MONDAY NIGHT AS BOUNDARY-LAYER COOLS AND STABILIZES. HOWEVER...SHOULD SEWD-MOVING CLUSTERS OF STORMS ORGANIZE A COLD POOL...SOME POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS MAY PERSIST INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS WITH THREAT POSSIBLY EXTENDING SWD INTO N TX. ...SERN STATES... OTHER CLUSTERS OF LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS MAY ALSO OCCUR ALONG FRONTAL ZONE OVER PORTIONS OF AL...GA AND SC. HERE...A VERY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS /I.E. DEWPOINTS OF 70-75 F/ COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY /MLCAPES OF 2000-3500 J/KG/. MOREOVER...ELY LOW-LEVEL WINDS ON IMMEDIATE COOL SIDE OF BOUNDARY BENEATH VERY SRN FRINGE OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH NERN U.S. TROUGH WILL RESULT IN MARGINALLY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR ACROSS NRN EXTENT OF INSTABILITY AXIS. ..MEAD.. 08/21/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 22 04:35:15 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 21 Aug 2005 23:35:15 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200508220552.j7M5qVRA013879@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 220550 SWODY2 SPC AC 220549 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1249 AM CDT MON AUG 22 2005 VALID 231200Z - 241200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DRT AUS 10 E ACT MWL BGS FST 45 WSW MRF ...CONT... IPL 50 ESE DAG DRA LOL 4LW BNO LWS 4OM 40 NNW 4OM ...CONT... 65 N DVL 25 NNW ATY FSD 20 SE OMA 10 N COU BWG 10 SSE BLF 15 ENE WAL. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... IN RESPONSE TO AMPLIFICATION IN SOUTHERN BRANCH OF POLAR JET...A LESS PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW PATTERN CONTINUES TO EVOLVE OVER THE U.S. AND MUCH OF CANADA. ONE CLOSED LOW HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED WITHIN LARGE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS QUEBEC/ONTARIO AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. EASTWARD MIGRATION OF THIS SYSTEM WILL SLOW BY TUESDAY ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC COAST...AS ANOTHER CLOSED LOW EVOLVES IN LARGE UPSTREAM TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE CANADIAN/NORTHERN U.S. ROCKIES. SUPPRESSION OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS PERIOD EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS...AS FAR SOUTH AS THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COASTAL STATES. HOWEVER...AS LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH IN SUBTROPICAL STREAM LIFTS OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS...UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY BUILD NORTHWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ...HIGH PLAINS... SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING TODAY ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN MONTANA IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTHWARD AND WEAKEN ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA TUESDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...MODELS SUGGEST NEW LOW WILL FORM IN PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHEAST MONTANA BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THIS IS NORTH OF SURFACE FRONT EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...FROM THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE REGION THROUGH THE RED RIVER VALLEY...AND LACK OF MORE SIGNIFICANT NORTHWARD MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE ONE FACTOR LIMITING SEVERE THREAT THIS FORECAST PERIOD. ADDITIONALLY...MID/UPPER FLOW ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS...SOUTH/EAST OF DIGGING TROUGH IN POLAR WESTERLIES...IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK AND SOUTHERLY THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY EVENING. DESPITE LIMITING FACTORS...VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND AN ISOLATED DOWNBURST OR TWO...BEFORE WEAKENING DURING THE EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. FARTHER SOUTH...STRONGER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SUBTROPICAL IMPULSE MAY NOT OVERSPREAD PARTS OF EASTERN COLORADO/WESTERN NEBRASKA AND KANSAS UNTIL AFTER DARK. HOWEVER...MODELS SUGGEST A BIT MORE PRONOUNCED VEERING WITH HEIGHT IN LOWER TO MID LEVELS DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS ACROSS THIS REGION...WHERE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN MAY CONTRIBUTE TO MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 2000 TO 3000 J/KG. AN ISOLATED SHORT-LIVED SUPERCELL OR TWO APPEARS POSSIBLE ...BUT SEVERE THREAT MAY DIMINISH FAIRLY QUICKLY DURING THE EVENING AS BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS/STABILIZES. ...SOUTHEAST STATES... AS FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES WEAKENS...MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP TUESDAY. IT IS STILL UNCERTAIN AS TO WHETHER A SHORT WAVE ROTATING INTO BASE OF LARGER-SCALE EASTERN TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO FORCING FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. HOWEVER...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY APPEARS LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO HEATING OF WEAKLY CAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER. THOUGH LOW/MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...VEERING WITH HEIGHT BENEATH MODERATE WESTERLY HIGH-LEVEL FLOW MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR AT LEAST BRIEF UPDRAFT ROTATION IN STRONGEST CELLS. IF THIS OCCURS...POTENTIAL FOR HAIL/GUSTY WINDS WILL BE ENHANCED. ..KERR.. 08/22/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 22 16:13:49 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 22 Aug 2005 11:13:49 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200508221731.j7MHVD81030941@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 221728 SWODY2 SPC AC 221727 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1227 PM CDT MON AUG 22 2005 VALID 231200Z - 241200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NNW DVL 30 SE MBG 35 S 9V9 15 WNW OFK 10 WSW FNB 35 W COU 35 N BWG 20 ESE BKW 20 ESE SBY ...CONT... 65 W COT 30 SW AUS 25 WNW TPL 30 WSW MWL 55 ENE BGS FST 45 WSW MRF ...CONT... IPL 60 WNW EED 30 SW TPH 35 SE LOL 45 WNW OWY 60 NE BOI 20 ESE LWS 35 NE EPH 40 NNW 4OM. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...HIGH PLAINS... WARM ADVECTION REGIME WILL DOMINATE THE HIGH PLAINS DURING THE DAY2 PERIOD AS LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS REMAINS UPSTREAM FROM THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT BASIN. DESPITE WEAK FLOW ALOFT...VEERING PROFILES WITH HEIGHT AND STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN SHEAR PROFILES MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF ROTATING STORMS. ASIDE FROM THE FAIRLY STRONG FRONTAL SURGE INTO MT LATE IN THE PERIOD...DOWNSTREAM SFC RIDGE WILL FORCE ELY COMPONENT ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS MAINTAINING LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE ZONE IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION EXPECTED TO AID LONGEVITY OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THE EVENING. A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS HOWEVER EXPECTED AREAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY DOES NOT WARRANT AN ORGANIZED SEVERE OUTLOOK AT THIS TIME. ...SERN U.S... LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN REGARDS TO A FAIRLY ACTIVE CONVECTIVE DAY ACROSS THE SERN U.S. DURING THE DAY2 PERIOD. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD EVOLVE WITHIN BASE OF ERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH WHERE SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 15-20KT...JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO ENSURE PULSE-MULTICELL UPDRAFTS ARE ABLE TO MOVE/PROPAGATE IN A SEWD FASHION. WITH TSTMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MID DAY...LAPSE RATES MAY STRUGGLE TO STEEPEN...THUS INSTABILITY SHOULD BE OVERTURNED QUICKLY AND REMAIN SOMEWHAT MARGINAL. THIS WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL AND LOW PROBABILITIES FOR WET MICROBURSTS WILL SUFFICE AT THIS TIME. ..DARROW.. 08/22/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 23 04:43:58 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 22 Aug 2005 23:43:58 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200508230601.j7N61DQC007041@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 230558 SWODY2 SPC AC 230557 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1257 AM CDT TUE AUG 23 2005 VALID 241200Z - 251200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MCK HSI BIE MKC JLN BVO P28 45 W HLC MCK. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 NNW GFK GFK ABR PIR REJ MLS 70 NW ISN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WSW CZZ RAL 10 NE DAG P38 10 E ENV 15 SW PIH 15 SW PUW 35 NNW GEG 25 N 63S ...CONT... 40 E RRT 10 W AXN 10 SE FRM COU 10 S TBN POF BNA 10 SE AND CAE FLO 35 ESE ECG ...CONT... DRT TPL FTW 10 WNW CDS PVW HOB 45 SE ELP. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS WED/WED EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.... AMPLIFIED SOUTHERN BRANCH OF POLAR JET WILL PERSIST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE U.S. THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. PROGRESSIVENESS OF EMBEDDED PERTURBATIONS...INCLUDING CLOSED LOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC COAST...AND ANOTHER EVOLVING CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...REMAINS A SOURCE OF CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY. EASTERN LOW NOW APPEARS TO BE GENERALLY CUT-OFF...BUT BY WEDNESDAY...LATEST NAM/GFS AND ENSEMBLES SUGGEST THAT THIS FEATURE...AND TRAILING TROUGH AXIS...WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO BE FORCED EAST OF ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS. UPSTREAM LOW IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DEVELOP NORTHEASTWARD INTO SASKATCHEWAN...WITH A COUPLE OF IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND ITS SOUTHERN/EASTERN PERIPHERY...ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL ROCKIES AND NORTHERN U.S. PLAINS. THIS WILL OCCUR AS ANOTHER TROUGH DIGS TOWARD THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. FARTHER SOUTH...MODELS SUGGEST SUBTROPICAL RIDGING...CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN/CENTRAL GULF STATES...WILL BEGIN TO EXPAND ONCE AGAIN. SERIES OF WAVES ROTATING AROUND ITS PERIPHERY LIKELY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...AND THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ...NORTHERN PLAINS... ALTHOUGH SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL LINGER OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS INTO WEDNESDAY...MOIST EAST SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME IS ALREADY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WHERE DEW POINTS ARE NOW NEAR 70F. THIS MOISTURE SEEMS MORE THAN LIKELY TO ADVECT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AS SOUTHERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS EAST OF LEE SURFACE TROUGH. PRIMARY SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...TRAILING COLD FRONT MAY BECOME A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BY PEAK HEATING AS IT SURGES ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MERGE WITH PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS...ALONG WHICH STRONG HEATING OF BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG. STRENGTH OF CAPPING ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE IS A CONCERN...PARTICULARLY TO THE SOUTH/EAST OF THERMAL LOW FORMING OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER...STRONGLY DIFLUENT AND DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW FIELD OVERSPREADING NORTH DAKOTA BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO MID-LEVEL UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION...WEAKENING CAP AND SUPPORTING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. SHEAR WILL BE MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS IN INITIAL ACTIVITY. BUT...CONVECTIVE CLUSTER IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE IN ENVIRONMENT WHERE DRY MID-LEVELS WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SOUNDINGS SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS. SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE/SLOWLY DEVELOP SOUTHWARD WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS...BEFORE STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER WEAKENS STORMS OVERNIGHT. ...CENTRAL PLAINS... MODELS SUGGEST CAPPING IN WAKE OF MID-LEVEL IMPULSE ASSOCIATED WITH SUBTROPICAL STREAM MAY BE SLOW TO STRENGTHEN OVER CENTRAL KANSAS WEDNESDAY. THIS IS WHERE SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO FOCUS WARM ADVECTION ALONG/NORTH OF LINGERING SURFACE FRONT. VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH DEW POINTS AROUND 70F WILL BECOME MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE BY PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING... AND CAPE IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG APPEARS POSSIBLE. THOUGH NOT STRONG...WESTERLY COMPONENT TO MID-LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS...WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS...POSSIBLY ISOLATED TORNADOES. ENTRANCE REGION OF INCREASINGLY ANTICYCLONIC HIGH-LEVEL JET STREAK MAY SUPPORT EVOLUTION OF LARGE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD EAST NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE MISSOURI VALLEY...AND MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG GUSTY WINDS ALONG OUTFLOWS...BEFORE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN BECOMES PRIMARY THREAT OVERNIGHT. ...GULF STATES... VERY MOIST AIR MASS WILL PERSIST SOUTH OF SURFACE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH EASTERN TROUGH. SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR WITH DAYTIME HEATING...AND THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES BY PEAK HEATING MAY BECOME FAVORABLE FOR HIGHLY LOCALIZED DOWNBURSTS IN STRONGER...BUT GENERALLY SHORT-LIVED CELLS. ..KERR.. 08/23/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 23 16:28:34 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 23 Aug 2005 11:28:34 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200508231747.j7NHkPrY016350@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 231743 SWODY2 SPC AC 231742 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1242 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2005 VALID 241200Z - 251200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE BVO 30 SW END 40 SSW GAG 65 SSW LBL EHA 40 NW GCK 10 E HLC CNK 25 E MHK CNU 20 SE BVO. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 W RRT 35 NW FAR 20 NE ABR 10 W PIR 10 NE RAP 15 S REJ 40 NE DIK 65 NW MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NW LRD 25 SSW TPL 35 ESE DAL 20 ENE ADM 15 SSE FSI 60 NNW ABI 20 SW BGS 50 SSW MRF ...CONT... 15 SE SAN 30 WNW TRM 25 E LAS 50 W RKS 20 NNE BPI JAC 30 WNW MQM 35 SSE S80 15 SW PUW 35 NNW GEG 25 N 63S ...CONT... 40 NW ELO 35 WSW STC 15 SSW FRM 35 WNW OTM 25 ENE JEF POF 35 NE MSL 60 WNW AND 35 WNW CAE 40 SSW FAY 15 ENE ECG. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NRN PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...DAKOTAS... SRN BC/AB UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD INTO SK AS UPPER SPEED MAX EJECTS NEWD FROM THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS WY INTO ND. THIS EVOLUTION WILL ALLOW SFC PRESSURES TO BUILD ACROSS MT FORCING A SHARP COLD FRONT INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS BY LATE AFTERNOON. AS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASES...STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF WIND SHIFT WILL ENHANCE INSTABILITY...AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH...AIDING ORGANIZATIONAL POTENTIAL OF TSTM ACTIVITY ALONG ADVANCING COLD FRONT. ALTHOUGH INITIAL DEVELOPMENT MAY PROVE DISCRETE...STRONG FORCING ALONG BOUNDARY SHOULD ENCOURAGE LINEAR STRUCTURES WITH TIME AND A SQUALL LINE MAY ULTIMATELY EVOLVE. DAMAGING WINDS OR LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS AS CONVECTION SPREADS EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ...CENTRAL PLAINS... LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST LATE DAY1 MCS ACTIVITY WILL BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD ACROSS KS. THIS CONVECTION WILL BE SUSTAINED BY WEAK LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION...LIKELY PERSISTING IN SOME FASHION FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AS IT SPREADS TOWARD WRN MO. STRONG HEATING WILL OCCUR ALONG SRN FRINGE OF MCS CLOUD CANOPY...SWWD ACROSS NWRN OK INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. DESPITE MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THIS REGION...IT APPEARS STRONG INSTABILITY WILL EVOLVE GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF TROPICAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE EXPECTED STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT. LATEST THINKING IS CONVERGENCE WILL PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF LATE AFTERNOON ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...EXTENDING FROM THE OLD CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW ENVIRONMENT...SWWD INTO NWRN OK. LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS ACROSS THIS REGION WITH SLOW ESEWD PROPAGATION ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER EXPECTED DURING THE EVENING HOURS. ..DARROW.. 08/23/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 24 16:12:50 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 24 Aug 2005 11:12:50 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200508241730.j7OHU0OA022889@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 241728 SWODY2 SPC AC 241727 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1227 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2005 VALID 251200Z - 261200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NW BRD 10 NNE STC 15 SSE MKT 60 WSW DSM 20 NNW FNB 20 NE CNK 20 N HLC 30 SE AKO 25 WSW SNY 20 ENE AIA 35 NNE ANW 40 NE ABR 20 E FAR 45 NW BRD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W CZZ 15 WSW RAL 40 NW PMD 30 WNW BIH 20 SSE U31 60 SW DPG 55 N PUC 20 W RWL DGW 45 SE RAP 40 NNW MBG 65 NNW DVL ...CONT... 15 NNW MQT 45 ENE VOK 35 SW RFD LAF 30 SSW CMH 30 N CRW 15 NW BLF 20 SW TRI 25 E CHA 25 WNW RMG ANB 15 WNW CSG 50 SSE MCN 30 ENE SAV. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 N DRT 45 NNW AUS 30 NNE LFK 50 SE SHV 15 N ELD 35 ESE PGO 50 WSW MKO 15 WSW OKC 30 SE CDS MAF 30 ESE FST 75 N DRT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM MN TO NEB... ...UPPER MS VALLEY TO CENTRAL PLAINS... SIGNIFICANT LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY REGION DURING THE DAY2 PERIOD AS UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS SRN SK...INTO SRN MANITOBA. TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY SERVE AS A CATALYST FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS MAY BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD ACROSS ERN ND/NWRN MN...NWD SHIFTING LLJ INTO NWRN ONTARIO WILL FAVOR EARLY-MID DAY ACTIVITY SPREADING/DEVELOPING INTO CANADA. WITH TIME...DAYTIME HEATING ALONG FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS NEB INTO SWRN MN WILL AID IN STRONG AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION...LIKELY RESULTING IN MLCAPE VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 3000 J/KG PRIOR TO STORM INITIATION. DESPITE STRONGEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR LAGGING THE FRONTAL ZONE...IT APPEARS SUFFICIENT HIGH LEVEL FLOW...COMBINED WITH EXPECTED INSTABILITY...WILL SPREAD INTO THE WARM SECTOR TO WARRANT A THREAT OF SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE CONVECTIVE CYCLE. WITH TIME FRONTAL FORCING/STORM MERGERS WILL LEAD TO POSSIBLE MCS DEVELOPMENT AS COMPLEX SPREADS ACROSS NEB. LESS INTENSE ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP NEWD ALONG THE FRONT AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS MN...SUPPORTED LARGELY BY STRONGER DYNAMIC FORCING. LARGE HAIL APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT...ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS. ...SOUTH FL... KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE SERN PENINSULA AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. STRONGEST SHEAR PROFILES...FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES...WILL LIKELY HOLD OFFSHORE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY2 PERIOD. FOR THIS REASON WILL NOT ISSUE AN OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FL. HOWEVER...IF KATRINA INCREASES SPEED AND THREATENS LANDFALL EARLIER IN THE DAY2 PERIOD AN OUTLOOK MAY BE REQUIRED. REF NHC FOR FURTHER DETAILS. ..DARROW.. 08/24/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 25 04:45:49 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 24 Aug 2005 23:45:49 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200508250602.j7P62rSL031677@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 250600 SWODY2 SPC AC 250559 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1259 AM CDT THU AUG 25 2005 VALID 261200Z - 271200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N MSN 15 NNW GRR JXN DAY SDF MKL HOT OKC GAG DHT 50 ESE LIC MCK BIE STJ OTM DBQ 25 N MSN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NE CRP COT 60 N DRT 10 SSE SJT MWL 10 SSW SPS 40 SSE CDS MAF 20 SSW P07 ...CONT... 10 S CZZ PMD BFL BIH TPH MLF 4HV 30 NNE CEZ 50 ESE GUC 10 SSE DEN 10 WNW CYS 10 SE CDR MHE 10 ENE STC 30 NNE ELO ...CONT... 10 SW BUF 45 WSW ELM HGR AVL ANB 0A8 10 NNE PNS TLH 40 SSW CHS. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FRI FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS THRU THE MID MS VLY AND PARTS OF THE LWR OH VLY.... WITH MOST SIGNIFICANT UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC...EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF CLOSED LOW INTO/ACROSS CENTRAL MANITOBA SEEMS LIKELY TO SLOW LATE TODAY INTO FRIDAY...SOUTH OF RIDGE IN NORTHERN BRANCH OF POLAR JET. HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE IMPULSE WILL DIG IN CYCLONIC FLOW TO THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH OF UPPER LOW...LEADING TO AMPLIFICATION OF UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY EARLY SATURDAY. SUBTROPICAL RIDGING IS ALREADY BECOMING SUPPRESSED ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST...ASSOCIATED WITH AMPLIFIED IMPULSE NOW FINALLY SHIFTING EAST OF ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS. THIS WILL ALLOW VERY SLOW EASTWARD MIGRATION OF TROPICAL SYSTEM INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. WHILE SUBTROPICAL RIDGING ALSO BECOMES SUPPRESSED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION FRIDAY...MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO HOLD FIRM FROM THE EAST CENTRAL PACIFIC THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST STATES AND WESTERN GULF COAST REGION. ...CNTRL PLAINS THROUGH MID MS VLY AND GREAT LAKES REGION... GIVEN STRONG POTENTIAL INSTABILITY BUILDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES...ASSOCIATED WITH ADVECTION OF ELEVATED MIXED LAYER OFF THE ROCKIES...ABOVE VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH 70F DEW POINTS... EVOLUTION OF ONE OR MORE LARGE CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS STILL SEEMS LIKELY TO OCCUR LATE TODAY/TONIGHT. THIS WILL OCCUR WITH LARGE- SCALE WEAKENING OF MID-LEVEL CAP EAST SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS/MID MISSOURI VALLEY...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN CONVECTION INTO EARLY FRIDAY. CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH REGARD TO DETAILS OF CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION...AND ITS INFLUENCE ON SUBSEQUENT POTENTIAL FOR NEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CURRENTLY...IT APPEARS THAT LARGE COMPOSITE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY EXTEND FROM PARTS OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS THROUGH NORTHERN MISSOURI/NORTHEAST KANSAS AT 12Z FRIDAY. SOUTH OF MAIN SURFACE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGH IN SOUTHERN BRANCH OF POLAR WESTERLIES...THIS BOUNDARY MAY BE OF MOST SIGNIFICANCE TO SUBSEQUENT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. BOUNDARY LAYER TO THE WEST/SOUTH AND EAST OF THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE WITH SURFACE HEATING...AND CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 2000 TO 3000 J/KG APPEARS POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. POSSIBLE CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED MID-LEVEL JET STREAK/VORTICITY CENTER MAY CONTRIBUTE TO FORCING FOR INTENSIFICATION OR INITIATION OF NEW STORMS FROM EASTERN MISSOURI INTO ILLINOIS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS PROGGED TO BE WEAK ACROSS THIS REGION...BUT MEAN CLOUD BEARING LAYER WINDS MAY EXCEED 30 KT... ENHANCING STORM MOTION AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT. ACTIVITY MAY PROGRESS INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES/LOWER OHIO VALLEY REGION BEFORE WEAKENING FRIDAY EVENING. ADDITIONAL NEW STORM CLUSTER APPEARS POSSIBLE BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ADVANCING THROUGH SOUTHERN KANSAS INTO OKLAHOMA. LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL BECOME FOCUSED ACROSS THIS REGION...AND ACTIVITY MAY CONTINUE WELL AFTER DARK WITH NOCTURNAL STRENGTHENING OF SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET. STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL IN MOST VIGOROUS STORMS. MEANWHILE...STRONGLY HEATED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL SUPPORT A FEW DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS...AS WELL AS STRONG GUSTY WINDS ALONG OUTFLOWS. ...FLORIDA PENINSULA... AS KATRINA PROGRESSES ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FRIDAY ...POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO COULD INCREASE AS FLOW TURNS TO SOUTHERLY FLOW IN WAKE OF SYSTEM...OFFERING BETTER POTENTIAL FOR BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION. ..KERR.. 08/25/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 25 16:04:21 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 25 Aug 2005 11:04:21 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200508251721.j7PHLNKr002340@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 251719 SWODY2 SPC AC 251717 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1217 PM CDT THU AUG 25 2005 VALID 261200Z - 271200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE FYV 30 SSE P28 10 ENE DDC 55 SSW HLC 35 N HLC 20 SSW OMA 35 SSE DSM 20 N UIN 30 NNE SLO 15 ENE HOP 60 N MSL 35 SSW MKL 25 NW MEM 45 SW ARG 20 NNE FYV. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW BUF 15 N BFD 15 S AOO 20 NW SHD 20 NNE AVL ANB 20 W TCL 35 ENE MEI 45 WSW SEM 30 SSW TOI ABY 10 NE CRE ...CONT... 35 NE CRP 65 SSE DRT ...CONT... 15 SSW IPL 20 N TRM 40 ENE DAG 30 NNE LAS 20 ENE SGU 20 ESE CNY 15 S CYS 10 NE MHE BRD 40 ESE INL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE P07 30 WNW JCT 35 WNW TPL 30 SSE FTW 40 NNE MWL 30 SE CDS 40 ESE PVW 25 ESE HOB 40 SSW INK 20 S FST 25 NE P07. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL PLAINS AND MID MS-VALLEY... ...CNTRL PLAINS/MID MS-VALLEY... AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AND MOVE EWD INTO THE CNTRL AND NRN PLAINS FRIDAY. DUE TO THE STRONG FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH...SCATTERED STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD THROUGH SRN NEB AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. AS STRONG ASCENT CONTINUES TO SPREAD EWD DURING THE DAY...DESTABILIZATION AND ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT. THE NAM IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE CONCERNING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THAN THE GFS SUGGESTING STORM COVERAGE REMAINS UNCERTAIN ATTM. HOWEVER...BOTH NAM AND GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WITH SBCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 2000 TO 3000 J/KG FROM CNTRL KS EXTENDING EWD INTO PARTS OF THE MID-MS VALLEY. IN ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW 30 TO 40 KT OF VERTICAL SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION SUGGESTING A SUPERCELL THREAT WILL EXIST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE STEEPEST ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS WHERE THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL WILL LIKELY BE THE GREATEST. ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DUE TO STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND VEERED LOW-LEVEL WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS ERN KS AND THE OZARK PLATEAU. THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL LIKELY BE ENHANCED IF A COLD POOL CAN GENERATE IN THE HIGHER INSTABILITY SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD LAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING DUE TO THE RELATIVELY HIGH INSTABILITY THAT SHOULD BE IN PLACE. ...SRN AND CNTRL FL... TROPICAL STORM KATRINA IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED JUST OFF THE SRN FL COAST. THE TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER FORECASTS KATRINA TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE PENINSULA REACHING THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO LATE IN THE DAY ON FRIDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FRIDAY ACROSS FL SHOW THE GREATEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SOUTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE NEAR THE CENTER OF KATRINA WITH SBCAPE VALUES IN THE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE. DUE TO THE ENHANCED SHEAR AND MODERATE INSTABILITY...A TORNADO POTENTIAL SHOULD BE PRESENT WITH ANY MINI-SUPERCELLS THAT INITIATE AND MOVE WWD ACROSS CNTRL AND SRN FL. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM SHOW 0-1 KM SHEAR VALUES ONLY AROUND 15 KT SUGGESTING THE TORNADO THREAT WILL REMAIN MARGINAL. THE THREAT MAY DECREASE ACROSS SRN FL LATE IN THE PERIOD AS KATRINA MOVES OFFSHORE INTO THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO. ..BROYLES.. 08/25/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 26 05:01:28 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 26 Aug 2005 00:01:28 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200508260618.j7Q6ITPK006585@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 260615 SWODY2 SPC AC 260615 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0115 AM CDT FRI AUG 26 2005 VALID 271200Z - 281200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 N ROC 30 NNE LBE 20 SE PKB 55 SE LUK 45 NE SDF IND 40 W FWA JXN 45 N MTC. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW HOB 20 SW TCC 50 E TAD 45 ESE LAA 30 NE LBL 30 S GAG 60 S CDS 50 S LBB 35 NNW HOB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WSW FHU 55 ESE PRC 15 SE PGA 20 N U28 25 NNW CAG 45 NNW IML 25 WNW FNB 40 SSE OTM 20 ESE JVL 10 NW MTW 40 ESE MQT 95 NNW ANJ ...CONT... 30 NE ORF 25 NNE SOP 35 E HKY 50 SW PSK 20 N SHD 25 N CXY 10 S UCA 35 NW PBG. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... THE UPPER TROUGH NOW CENTERED OVER WRN MANITOBA AND EXTENDING INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS WILL CONTINUE EWD INTO WRN ONTARIO BY SATURDAY. A SERIES OF VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY REGION ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...TIMING DIFFERENCES EXISTS WITHIN THE MODELS. BOTH THE ETA AND THE GFS SUGGEST A LEAD SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES EARLY IN THE PERIOD ACCOMPANIED BY A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH. BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD EXTEND FROM THE GREAT LAKES SWWD THROUGH THE WRN PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY. THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY SWWD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL SHIFT EWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY DURING THE DAY...WHILE THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS SEWD. ...GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY AREAS... BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 WILL BEGIN ADVECTING NEWD INTO THE OH VALLEY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EWD AND THE LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS A MORE SWLY OR WLY COMPONENT. FORCING FOR ASCENT ACCOMPANYING LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY EARLY SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO BE ONGOING AND MAY LIMIT DESTABILIZATION WITHIN ZONE OF BEST DEEP LAYER ASCENT ALONG AND JUST E OF THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. WHERE SURFACE HEATING DOES OCCUR...MLCAPES FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE RETURNING RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. FLOW THROUGH 6 KM IS FORECAST TO REMAIN MODEST OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR AOB 30 KT. AN EXCEPTION WILL BE WRN PA/WRN NY AREA WHERE THE LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD STRENGTHEN IN EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER JET ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH...RESULTING IN STRONGER LOW LEVEL SHEAR. IF SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION CAN OCCUR...STORMS MAY INTENSIFY DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH A POTENTIAL FOR PRIMARILY DAMAGING WIND FROM PARTS OF IND THROUGH OH AND POSSIBLY SERN LOWER MI. FARTHER EAST...OVER WRN PA INTO WRN NY...THE THREAT APPEARS EVEN MORE CONDITIONAL GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR LESS HEATING. HOWEVER...IF SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION CAN OCCUR...THREAT WILL EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHOES GIVEN MORE FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES. ...ERN NM...ERN CO THROUGH WRN TX... SURFACE FRONT WILL DEVELOP SWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS AND EXTEND FROM THE GREAT LAKES SWWD THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO NRN TX AND ERN NM EARLY SATURDAY. RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESIDE IN THE VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY BELOW STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. MODEST ELY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL DEVELOP IN POST FRONTAL REGIME ACROSS ERN CO AND ERN NM BELOW NWLY FLOW ALOFT. STORMS MAY DEVELOP WITHIN THE UPSLOPE REGIME AS WELL AS IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT AND SPREAD EWD DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK WITH ONLY 15 TO 20 KT AT 6 KM. HOWEVER... DIRECTIONAL SHEAR SHOULD BE AT LEAST MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. ACTIVITY MAY EVOLVE INTO AN MCS WITH A CONTINUING THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER INTO THE EVENING. ...FL... KATRINA IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO SATURDAY. SEE LATEST DISCUSSION FROM NHC FOR FURTHER DETAILS. AT THIS POINT WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN LOW PROBABILITIES FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND OR ISOLATED TORNADOES GIVEN FL WILL BE IN THE FAVORABLE NE QUADRANT TO EXPERIENCE STRONGER STORMS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE OUTER RAINBANDS. PORTIONS OF THIS AREA MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A SLIGHT RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS DEPENDING ON THE MOVEMENT AND EVOLUTION OF KATRINA. ..DIAL.. 08/26/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 28 04:19:33 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 27 Aug 2005 23:19:33 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200508280537.j7S5bIWR019544@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 280534 SWODY2 SPC AC 280533 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1233 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005 VALID 291200Z - 301200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E 7R4 25 E HEZ 15 ESE GWO 45 SSE MKL 40 NE HSV 50 E RMG 40 SSW MCN 45 WNW CTY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NNW ISN 30 SE MLS 15 S WRL 25 N OGD 35 NE EKO 55 WNW OWY 25 E BKE 25 WSW PDT 20 SSE DLS 20 WSW AST. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WSW TUS 15 NE GUP 15 SE TAD 15 ENE P28 40 W UNO 30 WSW OWB 20 N LUK CLE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL GULF COAST THROUGH PARTS OF MS...AL AND GA... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER TROUGH NOW CENTERED OVER WRN ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY EWD INTO SERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY. A MUCH STRONGER MORE BAROCLINIC UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PACIFIC NW AND INTO THE NRN ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION ACCOMPANIED BY A STRONG COLD FRONT. HURRICANE KATRINA IS FORECAST BY NHC TO MAKE LANDFALL MONDAY ALONG THE SERN LA COAST. ...CNTRL GULF COASTAL STATES... CURRENT FORECAST IS FOR KATRINA TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER SERN LA EARLY MONDAY. SEE LATEST ADVISORIES FROM NHC FOR FURTHER DETAILS. OUTER RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE HURRICANE SHOULD BEGIN AFFECTING THE CNTRL GULF COASTAL AREA AS EARLY AS SUNDAY NIGHT. THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES SHOULD SPREAD NWD MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS THE OUTER RAINBANDS CONTINUE NWD THROUGH MS...AL AND GA. ...NRN ROCKIES THROUGH ERN MT... STRONG FORCING FOR DEEP LAYER ASCENT WILL OCCUR ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS IT MOVES EWD THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES MONDAY. DESPITE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND EXPECTED STRONG SURFACE HEATING...VERY LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN MARGINAL INSTABILITY. INVERTED-V BOUNDARY LAYER PROFILES SHOULD DEVELOP IN PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR. HIGH BASED STORMS WILL LIKELY INITIATE IN THE ZONE OF STRONG ASCENT ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM WRN MT SWD INTO ID...THEN SUBSEQUENTLY SPREAD EWD. STRONG KINEMATIC PROFILES IN ADDITION TO THE DRY INVERTED-V BOUNDARY LAYERS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND. MARGINAL INSTABILITY MAY SERVE AS AN OVERALL LIMITING FACTOR FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE EPISODE...AND WILL INTRODUCE ONLY 5% WIND PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME. THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS. ...OH VALLEY THROUGH NERN STATES... PROXIMITY OF UPPER TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN FAIRLY STRONG FLOW AOA 6 KM. HOWEVER...LOWER LEVEL BAROCLINICITY IS NOT FORECAST TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG WITH ONLY MODEST FLOW AND SHEAR WITHIN THE LOWEST 5 KM. ACCOMPANYING SURFACE FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES SWWD INTO THE ERN PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY EARLY MONDAY. MODERATE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED IN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR DURING THE AFTERNOON. STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG AND E OF THE FRONT WITHIN THE WEAKLY CAPPED WARM SECTOR BY LATE MORNING AND SUBSEQUENTLY SPREAD EWD. THOUGH MODEST KINEMATIC PROFILES ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE LOWEST 5 KM...SHEAR THROUGH A DEEPER LAYER MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME STORMS TO ORGANIZE. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ..DIAL.. 08/28/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 28 16:14:14 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 28 Aug 2005 11:14:14 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200508281732.j7SHW7RA004598@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 281729 SWODY2 SPC AC 281728 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1228 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005 VALID 291200Z - 301200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ESE 7R4 25 WSW JAN 30 ESE GWO 30 NW MSL 50 WNW CHA 55 E CHA 30 SW AHN AQQ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW FHU 10 ENE SAD 40 SSE GNT SAF LVS TCC 40 WNW LBB 35 ESE BGS JCT 30 SSW AUS 25 NNE CLL 20 ENE GGG 15 W HOT 55 SSW UNO 60 NW CGI 35 ESE DNV 20 E GRR 30 SW HTL 70 E MQT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NW ISN 4BQ WRL 30 N OGD 50 ENE EKO 55 WNW OWY BKE PDT DLS 20 WSW AST. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE GULF COASTAL STATES FROM SERN LA/MS EWD INTO WRN GA.... ...SYNOPSIS... POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL EARLY IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD ACROSS THE NRN GULF COAST ...AND THEN TURN NNEWD AND MOVE THROUGH MS DURING THE PERIOD. A STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD INTO THE NRN ROCKIES WITH COLD TROUGH ALOFT SHIFTING SLOWLY EWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. HOWEVER...THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD BE LOCATED ON THE ERN SIDE OF KATRINA...FROM SERN LA/ERN MS EWD ACROSS AL AND INTO WRN GA. ...CNTRL GULF COASTAL STATES... GIVEN THE SIZE AND INTENSITY OF HURRICANE KATRINA...SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS LIKELY TO EXTEND MUCH FURTHER EAST THAN IS NORMALLY OBSERVED WITH MOST HURRICANES. VERY STRONG ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS AND LOW/DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN RAIN BANDS WELL EAST OF THE CENTER...ALONG WITH TORNADOES. TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT IF AND WHERE A BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY MIGHT PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR A SMALL AND LOCALIZED TORNADO OUTBREAK. HOWEVER... CURRENT FORECAST TRACK OF KATRINA SUGGESTS THAT STRONGEST LOW LEVEL SHEAR/TORNADO THREAT...AWAY FROM THE ACTUAL CENTER...WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS AL DURING THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHTTIME HOURS. REFERENCE LATEST NHC FOR UP TO DATE INFORMATION ON HURRICANE KATRINA. ...NRN ROCKIES... LIFTING SHOULD STRENGTHEN DURING THE DAY AS STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SPREADS EWD AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH. DESPITE A RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER...THE STRONG FORCING AND STEEP LAPSE RATES SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR HIGH BASED STORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS WRN MT/ID MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND THEN SHIFT EWD INTO ERN MT OVERNIGHT. THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NORTH OF MT IN SASKATCHEWAN...BUT STRONG ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS AND DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WOULD FAVOR AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THREAT. ...OH VALLEY THROUGH NERN STATES... PROXIMITY OF UPPER TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN MODERATELY STRONG SWLY FLOW ALOFT. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE IN WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT ALONG SURFACE TROUGH FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES SWWD INTO OH. VERTICAL WIND PROFILES SUGGEST A WIND THREAT MAY EXISTS IF TEMPERATURES CAN WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S. HOWEVER...CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION MAY LIMIT HEATING AND THREAT OF WIND DAMAGE APPEARS LOW ATTM. ..IMY.. 08/28/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 29 05:06:18 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 29 Aug 2005 00:06:18 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200508290625.j7T6P5mI014479@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 290621 SWODY2 SPC AC 290620 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0120 AM CDT MON AUG 29 2005 VALID 301200Z - 311200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WSW DCA 20 WSW ROA 25 NNE AVL 50 NW AHN 30 E GAD 30 SSW HSV 35 NNW MSL 25 NE CKV 20 NW SDF 30 NNW LUK 20 SSW MFD 10 WNW YNG 15 SSE DUJ 20 N HGR 45 WSW DCA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW BVE 60 NNE MOB 25 WSW 0A8 40 WSW CBM 30 W MEM 30 ENE ARG 20 E SLO 25 NW MIE 40 E TOL ...CONT... 55 W 3B1 10 NNE MWN 20 SSE CON 20 WSW HYA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W INL 10 ESE BRD 15 NE SPW 20 NE LNK 30 NNE RSL 35 SE LAA 35 N TAD 55 W COS 40 ENE CAG 50 SE LND 50 ENE JAC 25 SW LVM 15 SSE GTF 60 ENE CTB. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE TN VALLEY THROUGH THE OH VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... HURRICANE KATRINA IS FORECAST BY NHC TO MOVE NWD THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY MONDAY AND INTO THE TN VALLEY AS A TROPICAL STORM BY THE START OF THIS PERIOD. THE REMNANTS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE NEWD INTO THE OH VALLEY TUESDAY. A VERY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ITS ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EWD THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER SERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES AREA. ...TN AND OH VALLEYS... KATRINA IS FORECAST TO BE A TROPICAL STORM AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD AND CONTINUE NEWD THROUGH THE TN AND OH VALLEYS. SEE LATEST DISCUSSIONS FROM NHC ON KATRINA. STRONG LOW VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL PERSIST E OF THE CENTER AND POTENTIAL MAY ALSO EXIST FOR THE STORM TO INTERACT WITH A PRE-EXISTING SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE OH VALLEY...WHICH COULD FURTHER ENHANCE LOW LEVEL SHEAR. ONCE THE STORM BEGINS TO ENTRAIN DRYER MID LEVEL AIR...THE CHANCE FOR SURFACE HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION SHOULD INCREASE. STORMS MAY INTENSIFY DURING THE DAY E AND NE OF THE CENTER...ESPECIALLY WHERE CLOUD BREAKS PERMIT SURFACE HEATING. THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS PERIOD WITH GREATEST THREAT EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE TN VALLEY AND DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER ACTIVITY. ...NRN PLAINS... A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EWD THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS TUESDAY. MOISTURE RETURN WITHIN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR MAY BE LIMITED BY ESELY LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES EMANATING FROM A COOL SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 50S EXPECTED. MARGINAL TO MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON. A PLUME OF VERY WARM AIR WITHIN THE 1-3 KM LAYER ASSOCIATED WITH THE EML WILL SPREAD NEWD ABOVE THE EXPECTED LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...RESULTING IN A STRONG CAP WITHIN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER...VERY STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT WITHIN THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL SUPPORT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND W OF THE SURFACE FRONT. STORMS MAY EVOLVE INTO LINE SEGMENTS AS THEY MOVE EWD THROUGH ND AND SD. THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND POSSIBLY HAIL. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTORS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG CAP AND EXPECTED POST FRONTAL NATURE OF THE STORMS...WILL MAINTAIN ONLY 5% SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...PART OF THIS AREA MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO SLIGHT RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS. ..DIAL.. 08/29/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 29 16:13:07 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 29 Aug 2005 11:13:07 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200508291730.j7THUkuu006445@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 291728 SWODY2 SPC AC 291727 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1227 PM CDT MON AUG 29 2005 VALID 301200Z - 311200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW DCA 55 N RWI AGS 25 NE LGC GAD 45 NNE MSL 10 ENE CKV 45 WNW SDF 30 NE DAY 20 SE YNG 15 ENE PSB 15 W CXY 15 SW DCA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PNS 15 ESE SEM 10 SE TCL 20 SSE UOX 10 N MEM 25 NNE POF MTO FWA 35 E TOL ...CONT... 55 W 3B1 10 NNE MWN 20 SSE CON 20 WSW HYA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM RRT 65 ENE STC 20 ESE RST ALO 35 ESE OMA LNK GLD LIC DEN DGW SHR 40 NE HVR. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER OHIO/TN VALLEYS AND APPALACHIANS...... ...SYNOPSIS... REMNANTS OF KATRINA ARE FORECAST TO MOVE NEWD INTO THE TN VALLEY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT RAPIDLY EWD FROM THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST... WHICH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT FROM MN SWWD INTO NERN NM BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. MOISTURE SHOULD BE LIMITED IN THE NRN PLAINS... SO THE GREATER THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER...INCLUDING TORNADOES...WILL BE IN ASSOCIATION WITH KATRINA. ...TN AND OH VALLEYS AND APPALACHIANS... ALTHOUGH THE CORE WINDS AROUND KATRINA WILL WEAKEN AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NEWD THROUGH THE PERIOD...MID AND HIGH LEVEL WINDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SYSTEM WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENTS BETWEEN KATRINA AND THE ATLANTIC RIDGE. SEVERAL BANDS OF STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED EAST OF THE CENTER AND LIFT NEWD THROUGH THE DAY. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...THE STRENGTH OF THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WITHIN THE THUNDERSTORM BANDS. MODELS SUGGEST A BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND EWD FROM KATRINA AND ENHANCE THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE AND TORNADOES. THE TORNADO THREAT WOULD BE ENHANCED IF SOME HEATING OCCURS IN THE VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. ATTM IT APPEARS THE BEST COMBINATION OF LOW/DEEP LAYER SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT A HIGHER CHANCE OF TORNADOES ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY AND SRN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. PORTIONS OF THIS AREA MAY BE UNGRADED TO A MODERATE RISK IN THE DAY 1 OUTLOOKS...ONCE THE THREAT AREA FOR A LOCALIZED TORNADO OUTBREAK CAN BE IDENTIFIED. ...ND/SD/WRN MN AND NWRN IA... STRONG LIFT AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL ACCOMPANY THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE INHIBITED BY NLY WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS BEHIND KATRINA AND DRIER AIR SPREADING WWD FROM A COOL SURFACE RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AREA. DEEP LAYER SHEAR AT 30-40 KT WOULD SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION...THOUGH THE LIMITED MOISTURE/WEAK INSTABILITY SUGGESTS STORM COVERAGE MAY BE ISOLATED. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE DRY BOUNDARY AIR AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WOULD BE CAPABLE OF STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS...SO A 5% PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IS MAINTAINED. ..IMY.. 08/29/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 30 04:52:41 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 29 Aug 2005 23:52:41 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200508300610.j7U6ALEo030239@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 300607 SWODY2 SPC AC 300606 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0106 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005 VALID 311200Z - 011200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E SBY 10 SSW ILG 20 WSW AVP BGM 15 NNW UCA 20 WSW SLK 25 WSW EFK 20 E BML 25 WSW BHB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNW MQT 20 N OSH 45 ENE MLI 45 NE COU 30 NNE JLN 30 S END 25 NW CDS 25 NNE HOB 65 WNW MRF ...CONT... 20 SSE YUM 40 NNW BLH 45 E LAS 30 SE CDC 35 SE 4HV 35 ESE GUC 20 WNW LHX 35 NNW GCK 30 WNW RSL 40 S HSI 30 NE GRI 30 SW MHE 30 NW HON 55 NW ABR 70 NW DVL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW GPT 65 N MOB 25 NW AUO 25 SSW AHN 35 SSE SPA 25 NNE CLT 40 SSW PSK 55 E JKL 35 SSE LEX 35 E BWG 30 NNE HOP 25 WSW EVV 25 NE HUF 15 NNE FWA 20 ENE DTW. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE NERN U.S.... ...SYNOPSIS... REMNANTS OF KATRINA ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO THE NERN U.S. BY WEDNESDAY...GRADUALLY TAKING ON EXTRA-TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. SEE LATEST DISCUSSIONS FROM NHC/HPC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE AVN CONTINUES TO BE FASTER THAN THE ETA AND MORE IN LINE WITH THE NHC FORECAST. FARTHER WEST...THE STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE NWRN U.S. WILL CONTINUE EWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY WEDNESDAY. ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT WILL TO EXTEND FROM THE ERN DAKOTAS SWWD INTO THE NRN NM EARLY WEDNESDAY THEN CONTINUE EWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND TRAIL SWWD THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS BY LATE IN THE DAY. ...NERN U.S.... REMNANTS OF KATRINA WILL CONTINUE NEWD TOWARD THE NERN STATES... GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE EXTRA-TROPICAL. KATRINA WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH A PRE-EXISTING BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE OH VALLEY. BY EARLY WEDNESDAY THE CENTER OF KATRINA IS FORECAST BY NHC TO BE NEAR EXTREME WRN NY STATE. A SURFACE BOUNDARY SHOULD EXTEND NEWD FROM THE LOW THROUGH NY AND INTO NEW ENGLAND. RAIN WILL LIKELY BE WIDESPREAD WITHIN THE DEFORMATION ZONE N OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY. S OF THE FRONT A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL MAINTAIN AN INFLUX OF TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE NERN U.S. AND NEW ENGLAND WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S LIKELY. AS IS USUALLY THE CASE WITH THESE TYPES OF SYSTEMS...THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WILL BE AVAILABLE WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR E AND SE OF THE LOW CENTER. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS...ONGOING CONVECTION AND WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY LIMIT INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AT LEAST MARGINAL CAPE WHERE POCKETS OF SURFACE HEATING CAN DEVELOP. STRONG SHEAR PROFILES WILL PERSIST IN THE WARM SECTOR E OF THE LOW CENTER. ISOLATED TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS PROVIDED SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP. ...NERN NM THROUGH CNTRL PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY AREA... STRONGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT ACCOMPANYING THE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND WRN GREAT LAKES REGION. HOWEVER...ESELY LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES EMANATING FROM A COOL SURFACE RIDGE SHOULD LIMIT INSTABILITY IN THIS AREA. AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP WITHIN THE PRE-FRONTAL ZONE FARTHER S OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS WHERE RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SURFACE HEATING WILL EXIST. HOWEVER...SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND WEAKER FORCING FOR ASCENT ALONG THE FRONT IN THIS AREA MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. STORMS THAT DO MANAGE TO DEVELOP MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL OR STRONG WIND GUSTS. OVERALL THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT MORE THAN 5% SEVERE PROBABILITIES. ..DIAL.. 08/30/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 30 16:15:26 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 30 Aug 2005 11:15:26 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200508301735.j7UHZLoK014528@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 301731 SWODY2 SPC AC 301730 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1230 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005 VALID 311200Z - 011200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NW 3B1 45 NNE 3B1 HUL ...CONT... 25 SSW WAL 20 W NHK 25 SSE MRB 10 NE PSB 30 NNW ITH 45 ENE ART 25 NE PBG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW CMX 40 E DBQ 45 S UIN 15 NW FYV 25 NNW ABI 30 NNE FST 55 W MRF ...CONT... 15 SSE YUM BLH 30 N EED 25 S SGU 30 ESE 4HV 35 ESE ASE 25 SSW LIC 45 NNW GCK 30 ESE HLC 40 S HSI 30 NE GRI 30 SW MHE 30 NW HON 55 NW ABR 70 NW DVL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW 7R4 20 WSW LUL 45 N MGM 10 SSW AHN 30 SSE SPA 30 W CLT 20 NW HKY 35 NNW TRI 35 NW JKL 25 ESE LUK 40 WNW CMH 35 NNW CLE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND STATES... ...MID-ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND... THE REMNANTS OF KATRINA ARE FORECAST BY THE TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER TO BE NEAR CLEVELAND OH AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. KATRINA IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEWD INTO FAR WRN NY DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AND INTO SRN QUEBEC WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HEAVY RAINBANDS WILL BE IN PLACE WEDNESDAY MORNING...SPREADING NEWD ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND NEW ENGLAND STATES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON SHOW MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN PLACE WITH 0-1 KM SHEAR VALUES EXCEEDING 25 KT OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. THIS WILL LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS ESPECIALLY WHERE ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ALLOW FOR SOME DESTABILIZATION. THE FAST MOVEMENT OF KATRINA AND THE LARGE WARM SECTOR EAST OF THE CENTER WILL AFFECT A BROAD AREA WITH A SEVERE THREAT. THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A TORNADO THREAT BUT ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND SMALL HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH SUPERCELLS. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BEGIN IN THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC GRADUALLY SPREADING NNEWD INTO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THE GREATEST TORNADO THREAT SHOULD EXIST NEAR PEAK HEATING IN THE COASTAL PLAINS OF SERN PA AND IN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY OF ERN NY WHERE STORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS IN THE AFTERNOON AND INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MAXIMIZED. ...SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS AND NRN MS VALLEY WITH THE FRONT POSITION FROM NW OK EXTENDING NEWD ACROSS ERN KS INTO ERN IA BY AFTERNOON. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION WITH SCATTERED STORMS LIKELY DEVELOPING BY THE MID-AFTERNOON HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS BY AFTERNOON SHOW WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH ABOUT 20 KT OF VERTICAL SHEAR. IN ADDITION...850 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST TO EXCEED 7.0 C/KM NEAR THE FRONT. THESE SOUNDING PROFILES WOULD RESULT IN STRONG MULTICELL THREAT WITH HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS. HOWEVER...THE RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR AND LACK OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SHOULD KEEP ANY SEVERE THREAT MARGINAL WITH THE SEVERE THREAT PRESENT MAINLY NEAR AND JUST AFTER PEAK HEATING. ..BROYLES.. 08/30/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 31 04:04:35 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 30 Aug 2005 23:04:35 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200508310522.j7V5MB2j014647@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 310519 SWODY2 SPC AC 310519 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1219 AM CDT WED AUG 31 2005 VALID 011200Z - 021200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW 63S 15 NNE EAT 45 WSW YKM 30 NNE PDX 30 ENE AST 25 ENE HQM CLM 35 WNW BLI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 SSW GBN 30 NNW PHX 25 NNE FLG 4BL 30 NNE MTJ 25 E 4FC 25 NE AKO 25 NW MCK 40 N HLC 25 W RSL 35 SW DDC 40 NNW GAG 45 ENE GAG 15 W BVO JLN 15 ESE SGF 35 WSW UNO 40 NNW LIT 25 WSW HOT 25 WNW PRX 35 SW SPS 55 NNE BGS 30 E INK 40 WSW MRF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSE DRT 10 ESE HDO 35 N VCT 25 WSW GLS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE PNS 15 SW MAI 10 NE MGR 30 NE AYS 25 ESE SAV. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS WILL CONTINUE EWD THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY. A SURFACE FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WITH TRAILING PORTIONS EXTENDING SWWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS WHERE IT WILL LIKELY STALL. OTHERWISE A PREDOMINANTLY ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED WITH THE MAIN BELT OF WLYS OVER THE NRN THIRD OF THE NATION. AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE NWRN U.S. WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE PREVAILS OVER THE SWRN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. ...SRN ROCKIES AND SRN HIGH PLAINS... LOW LEVEL ELY UPSLOPE COMPONENT WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER NM AND CO LATER WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS SWD IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT. BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO SLY THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EWD AND A WEAK LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS IN ITS WAKE. ELY LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERING TO SLY WILL ALLOW RICHER MOISTURE RESIDING FARTHER EAST TO ADVECT INTO ERN NM AND CO WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S EXPECTED UNDERNEATH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. SURFACE HEATING SHOULD SUPPORT MODERATE INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON. STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NM AND CO AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES. KINEMATIC PROFILES WILL REMAIN RATHER WEAK WITH THE FLOW AOB 15 KT THROUGH 6 KM OVER MUCH OF THIS REGION. HOWEVER...STRONG VEERING WILL SUPPORT 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 20 TO 30 KT. STORMS SHOULD BE SLOW TO MOVE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN DUE TO THE MODEST MID LEVEL WINDS. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP DURING THE EVENING OVER WRN KS AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. OVERALL THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT MORE THAN 5% SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME. ..DIAL.. 08/31/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 31 15:52:49 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 31 Aug 2005 10:52:49 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200508311710.j7VHAMQ5024694@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 311708 SWODY2 SPC AC 311706 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1206 PM CDT WED AUG 31 2005 VALID 011200Z - 021200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW 63S 15 NNE EAT 45 WSW YKM 30 NNE PDX 30 ENE AST 25 ENE HQM CLM 35 WNW BLI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW MFE 45 ENE COT 25 SE AUS 40 E LFK 10 NNE TOI 20 S CHS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 WSW TUS 35 SSW INW 20 E 4BL 15 ESE EGE 20 ESE FCL 30 SSW IML 25 S HLC 40 WSW EMP 45 SW JEF 25 W MTO 10 NNW BMG 35 NW SDF 30 NNE HOP 40 SW MEM 10 E TXK 30 NNE DAL 45 SW SPS 55 E LBB 30 SSE LBB 15 NNW MAF 85 SSW P07. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SRN ROCKIES/SRN PLAINS... AN UPPER-TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE DESERT SW WILL DAMPEN AND MOVE SLOWLY EWD TOWARD THE SRN ROCKIES TONIGHT. BROAD LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES AND INTO SRN PLAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON SUPPORTING SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT. STORM INITIATION WILL LIKELY OCCUR BY MID-DAY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN NM AND SRN CO WITH THE STORMS MOVING EWD INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON. OTHER STORMS SHOULD ALSO INITIATE IN THE PLAINS OF ERN NM AND SE CO BY LATE AFTERNOON AS DESTABILIZATION OCCURS. SFC DEWPOINTS EAST OF THE MTNS IN THE 50S F COMBINED WITH TEMPS NEAR 80 F WILL BE ENOUGH FOR MODEST INSTABILITY WITH SBCAPE VALUES ABOVE 500 J/KG. IN ADDITION... FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES IN THE 20 TO 30 KT RANGE SUGGESTING STORM MODE WILL REMAIN MULTICELLULAR. THE MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND LARGE SFC TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS MAY RESULT IN A BRIEF HAIL THREAT WITH ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. THE MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE CONCENTRATED NEAR PEAK HEATING DUE TO THE WEAK INSTABILITY EXPECTED. ..BROYLES.. 08/31/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 1 05:31:01 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 01 Aug 2005 00:31:01 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200508010559.j715xgHF007938@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 010556 SWODY2 SPC AC 010555 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1255 AM CDT MON AUG 01 2005 VALID 021200Z - 031200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ENE ELO 20 WNW IWD 45 NNE EAU 40 WSW EAU RWF ATY 40 S Y22 50 NNW REJ 60 NNW ISN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S BHB 40 WNW 3B1 ...CONT... 65 NNE MTC LAN RFD 25 SSE ALO 25 S FOD LNK HLC LAA TAD SAF 40 W ELP ...CONT... 40 SE YUM LAS BAM PUW 70 ENE 63S ...CONT... 25 ENE CRP 40 WNW VCT MLU 20 WNW GLH MEM CKV 55 WSW LOZ GSO 40 WSW HSE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...SYNOPSIS... DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD FROM ALBERTA INTO MANITOBA DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE SRN EXTENT OF THIS TROUGH BRUSHING THE NRN ROCKIES/PLAINS. A STRONG COLD FRONT AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH SHOULD EXTEND FROM ERN ND SWWD INTO NRN WY BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...WITH A WEAK WARM FRONT LOCATED ACROSS NRN MN/WI. ...NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... SINCE THE STRONGEST DYNAMICAL LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH CANADIAN UPPER TROUGH WILL SPREAD ACROSS SRN CANADA...AND VERY WARM AIR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BETWEEN 850-650 MB...SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO BE INHIBITED MUCH OF THE DAY TUESDAY. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT A COUPLE OF DIFFERENT MECHANISMS SHOULD AID CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO STRETCH FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS NEWD INTO SRN MN. THIS VEERED JET MAY BE IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH...FORECAST BY BOTH GFS/NAM...MOVING EWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. ALTHOUGH AIR MASS WILL BE VERY UNSTABLE...AIR MASS SHOULD REMAIN CAPPED FOR SURFACE BASED. HOWEVER...STRENGTHENING JET DURING THE EVENING HOURS MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR ELEVATED/HIGHER BASED STORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS NRN MN AND PERHAPS INTO NWRN WI. EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 25 KT COMBINED WITH 1500-2000 J/KG OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT STORMS WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS. OTHER STORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT ACROSS WRN ND TUESDAY NIGHT AS RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET/UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SPREADS INTO THE AREA. THOUGH THE AIR MASS BETWEEN 850-650 MB SHOULD STILL BE RELATIVELY WARM...ACCOMPANYING HEIGHT FALLS AND LARGE SCALE FORCING SHOULD RESULT IN VERTICAL THERMODYNAMICAL PROFILES TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. ONCE STORMS FORM...DEEP LAYER SHEAR AT 30-35 KT AND MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY SHOULD PROVIDE A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS. DRY AIR ALOFT AND DEEP WLY WINDS ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY POSSIBLY EVOLVE STORMS INTO A LINEAR MCS...WITH THIS SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS ND OVERNIGHT. ..IMY.. 08/01/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 1 16:55:55 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 01 Aug 2005 11:55:55 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200508011724.j71HOZXx001703@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 011721 SWODY2 SPC AC 011720 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1220 PM CDT MON AUG 01 2005 VALID 021200Z - 031200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NW INL 45 WSW HIB 25 S AXN ATY 15 S REJ 70 SSE GDV 55 NNW MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE CRP 45 S LRD ...CONT... 15 NW DRT 25 WSW TPL 35 NNE GGG 35 E LIT 35 NW HOP 10 NE BWG 20 NW CSV TYS 55 E TRI 60 ESE LYH 35 SE ORF ...CONT... 20 SSE NEL 25 SE BWI 30 WSW AOO 55 NNE CLE ...CONT... MTC 15 NE AZO 30 ESE DBQ 35 WSW FOD 30 N OFK 35 WNW BUB 45 ENE AKO 20 E COS 35 WSW ALS 45 SSW GNT 35 SW DMN ...CONT... 40 SE YUM 45 WSW P38 55 ENE 4LW 55 NNW BNO 40 NE CTB. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PART OF THE NRN PLAINS... ...NORTHERN PLAINS... STRONG CAPPING IS EXPECTED TO HOLD OVER THE DAKOTAS FOR MUCH OF TUESDAY AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT FORECAST TO SLIDE SSEWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW BOUNDARY LAYER TO BECOME INCREASINGLY MOIST/UNSTABLE DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH INCREASE CONVERGENCE...LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM NEAR SURFACE CONVERGENCE AXIS WHICH IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM N-CENTRAL/NERN ND SSWWD TO WRN SD. AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER MODEST WLY FLOW ALOFT AND FORECAST SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST SEVERE MULTICELL CLUSTERS/LINES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS STORMS DEVELOP DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. LARGE HAIL WILL BE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT...ESPECIALLY AS STORMS BECOME ELEVATED AFTER DARK. ...NRN MS RIVER VALLEY/WRN GREAT LAKES... LOW LEVEL WAA REGIME WILL REMAIN FOCUSED INTO THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY/WRN GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD ALONG NOSE OF SWLY LLJ. CAPPING WILL LIKELY REMAIN PREDOMINANT THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS THIS REGION. IN ADDITION TO CAPPING...SURFACE CONVERGENCE WILL REMAIN DIFFUSE. THUS...HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN STORMS DEVELOPING DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OVER THIS REGION. HOWEVER...STRONG HEATING AND ABUNDANT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL WEAKEN CAP...AND LOW LEVEL WAA REGIME MAY SUFFICE FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO LATE IN THE DAY. SHOULD SURFACE-BASED STORMS FORM...SUFFICIENT SHEAR /I.E. 0-6 KM SHEAR AROUND 30 KT/ AND STRONG INSTABILITY WOULD SUPPORT LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. PRIMARY THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL OCCUR AFTER DARK AS WSWLY LLJ INTENSIFIES ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. RESULTANT STORMS WILL BE ELEVATED BUT WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY AND SPREAD INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY STRONGER STORMS. WITH QUESTIONS ABOUT DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT...AND LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL FROM LATE NIGHT STORMS...WILL OPT TO LEAVE AREA IN LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES FOR NOW. ...NORTHEAST... YET ANOTHER MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD FOCUS THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS INTO PORTIONS OF NRN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY. PRE-FRONTAL WINDS WILL REMAIN WLY...THOUGH CONVERGENCE MAY STILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL AT BEST...WITH THE NAM BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH ITS INSTABILITY FORECASTS. STRONG WNWLY FLOW FROM H85 THROUGH THE MID LEVELS MAY SUPPORT A DAMAGING WIND GUST OR TWO. HOWEVER...EVEN WITH THE MODERATE SBCAPE FROM THE NAM...OVERALL SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LOW. ..EVANS.. 08/01/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 2 05:34:32 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 02 Aug 2005 00:34:32 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200508020603.j726396H026975@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 020601 SWODY2 SPC AC 020600 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0100 AM CDT TUE AUG 02 2005 VALID 031200Z - 041200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE CMX 10 N AUW LSE 20 N ALO OLU BUB 40 NE ANW ATY 30 E INL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 E APN 15 NW GRR 25 NNW PIA 35 N SZL 10 E ICT TCC 45 NW HOB 25 ENE FST 50 W JCT AUS GGG 20 NNW PBF DYR HOP 20 SSE LOZ 25 SSW LYH 10 E ORF ...CONT... 10 WNW YUM 50 W DRA U31 55 NNE WMC BOI MSO 60 NE FCA. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND MIDDLE MO RIVER VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... DEEP UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM NRN MANITOBA EWD INTO WRN ONTARIO DURING THE PERIOD...WITH THE SRN EXTENT OF THE TROUGH BRUSHING THE NRN PLAINS AND WRN GREAT LAKES AREA. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND SHOULD STRETCH FROM NWRN WI SWWD THROUGH CENTRAL NEB AND INTO NERN CO BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. ...UPPER MIDWEST AND MIDDLE MO RIVER VALLEY... A CLUSTER OR TWO OF ELEVATED STORMS...AT THE START OF THE PERIOD... MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DAKOTAS AND WITHIN STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IN MN/WI AREA. HOWEVER...WEAKENING LOW LEVEL JET AND TIME OF DAY SUGGEST CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY NON-SEVERE. HOWEVER...STRONG HEATING IN THE WARM SECTOR AND STRENGTHENING CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR SURFACE BASED STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT BY LATE AFTERNOON. NAM AND GFS INDICATE A TIGHT GRADIENT OF MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY WILL EVOLVE JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT BY LATE DAY...WITH 30-35 KT MID LEVEL FLOW SUFFICIENT FOR STORM ORGANIZATION. THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND VERY HOT SURFACE TEMPERATURES...95 TO 105F...WILL PROVIDE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STORMS WITH STRONG AND SOMETIMES DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE...THOUGH THE RELATIVELY WARM MID/HIGH LAYER TEMPERATURES WILL LIMIT THE COVERAGE AND SIZE. STORMS WILL BE PRIMARILY THERMODYNAMICALLY DRIVEN AND SHOULD WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY BY 03-06Z AS BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES FROM THE STRONG OUTFLOWS. ...NERN CO AREA... LATE IN THE DAY...HIGH BASED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN LATE AS NELY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT PROVIDE LIFT AND ADVECT HIGHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WWD. EVEN WITH THE INCREASE OF SURFACE DEWPOINTS...THE FORECAST OF DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES FROM THE SURFACE TO 600 MB AND 500-800 J/KG OF SBCAPE WILL PROVIDE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR HIGH BASED STORMS WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS. THE MID/HIGH LEVEL WINDS WILL BE WEAK AS UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED IN SERN CO. SLOW MOVING STORMS SHOULD QUICKLY BECOME OUTFLOW DOMINATED...SO ONLY A 5% PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE IS FORECAST ATTM. ..IMY.. 08/02/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 2 16:49:27 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 02 Aug 2005 11:49:27 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200508021718.j72HI5VA022619@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 021715 SWODY2 SPC AC 021714 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1214 PM CDT TUE AUG 02 2005 VALID 031200Z - 041200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 E MQT 10 W GRB 45 NNW DBQ OLU BUB 40 NE ANW 30 NW INL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WNW YUM 45 SW LAS 55 W MLF 50 WNW IDA 10 NE DLN 30 WNW 3HT 35 ENE MLS 40 NNE DIK 60 N MOT ...CONT... 45 N BML 15 NW LCI 25 SSW EEN 30 WNW EWR 25 ENE BWI 35 ESE CHO 40 SSW RIC 25 ESE ECG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DTW 25 SSW AZO 45 SW RFD LWD 45 WSW HLC 45 ENE LVS 35 SSE 4CR 25 SSW GDP P07 45 E SJT 25 SSE FSI 35 E MLC 40 NNE UOX 35 SW CSV 25 WNW TRI 25 SE MGW 45 WSW ERI DTW. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER ERN PORTIONS OF THE NRN PLAINS ACROSS THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY... ...NRN PLAINS ACROSS NRN MS RIVER VALLEY... WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSE EJECTING SLOWLY ENEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS DURING THE DAY 1 PERIOD...WILL OVERSPREAD THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING ESEWD ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND INTO THE NRN PLAINS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY 2 PERIOD. MCS/CLUSTER OF ELEVATED STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF ND/MN WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHICH SHOULD SHIFT ESEWD ACROSS NRN MN AND WRN ONTARIO THROUGH THE DAY. ACTUAL SCENARIO STILL HARD TO DETERMINE ATTM...DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH MORNING STORMS. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR EARLY ACTIVITY TO INTENSIFY AND DEVELOP MORE SEWD THROUGH THE DAY AS HEATING OVERCOMES CAP INTO NRN WI/SERN MN/WRN UP OF MI. PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS WILL LIKELY BECOME VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE WITH 40 KT OF WLY MID LEVEL FLOW SUPPLYING AMPLE SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED LINES/SUPERCELLS. PERHAPS A SEPARATE AREA OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON AS STRONGER ASCENT AND SURFACE COLD FRONT SPREAD SEWD INTO MN/WRN SD. GIVEN COMBINATION OF EXPECTED INSTABILITY...SHEAR AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGHS...EXPECT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE DAY/EVENING FROM THE NRN GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID MO RIVER VALLEY. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE FROM DAMAGING WINDS...WHICH COULD BE WIDESPREAD SHOULD ONE OR TWO BOW ECHO SYSTEMS EVOLVE. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND EVEN A FEW TORNADOES CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED. ...CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES... THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WEDNESDAY...DUE TO COMBINATION OF AFTERNOON HEATING AND WEAK LIFT AHEAD OF SUBTLE MID LEVEL VORT MAX FORECAST BY BOTH NAM AND GFS TO SPREAD INTO CO. AS STORMS SPREAD EWD OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...THEY WILL LIKELY ENCOUNTER MODERATE INSTABILITY IN WAKE OF SURFACE COLD FRONT. STRONG/GUSTY WINDS SHOULD ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS INTO THE EARLY EVENING. WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT CONVERGENCE/LIFT ALONG NOSE OF LLJ...ACTIVITY MAY INCREASE INTO AN MCS DURING THE EVENING WITH ATTENDANT THREAT OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL FROM ELEVATED STORMS AFTER DARK. OVERALL SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LIMITED ATTM...THOUGH POTENTIAL STILL WARRANTS LOW PROBABILITIES. ..EVANS.. 08/02/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 3 05:32:34 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 03 Aug 2005 00:32:34 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200508030601.j73617Wm003579@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 030558 SWODY2 SPC AC 030557 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1257 AM CDT WED AUG 03 2005 VALID 041200Z - 051200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE SAN 25 S PMD 20 E NID 15 SSE TPH 60 SSE TWF 20 W MQM 20 W BIL 60 E BIL 35 NW BFF 25 NNW LBF 30 ESE OFK 25 W MCW 25 E RHI 20 E MQT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE 5I3 20 WNW SSU 50 W EKN 15 S PKB 55 ESE LUK 10 NNW SDF 10 ENE CGI 40 SSW UNO 45 NNW HOT 25 SSE HOT 20 SSE PBF 20 W TUP 10 WNW HSV 10 SSW TYS 40 SE 5I3. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... DEEP UPPER TROUGH FROM MANITOBA SWD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL SWEEP ENEWD DURING THE PERIOD AND LIFT INTO ONTARIO/QUEBEC BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. EVEN THOUGH THE STRONGER LARGE SCALE FORCING IS FORECAST TO SHIFT INTO CANADA...SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH WILL RESULT IN A RELATIVELY STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO DROP SEWD FROM THE NRN ROCKIES/PLAINS. THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH THE LEADING EDGE OF A COLD FRONT INTO THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY...ROUGHLY FROM EXTREME SERN LOWER MI SWWD THROUGH CENTRAL MO AND INTO NERN NM BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ...SERN LOWER MI SEWD THROUGH CENTRAL MO INTO SERN KS/NERN OK... HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER HUMIDITIES AND SHALLOW COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE LOW CLOUDS JUST BEHIND COLD FRONT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...STRONG SOLAR INSOLATION WILL RESULT IN STRONG HEATING AND ENHANCED CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT. EVEN THOUGH LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL BE MUCH WEAKER WITH FRONT THAN ON WEDNESDAY...PAST FEW MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN COOLING THE 850-700 MB LAYER 3-5C...RESULTING IN A WEAKER CAPPING INVERSION. THE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND WEAKER CAP SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH MID EVENING THURSDAY. NAM APPEARS TO BE OVERDOING INSTABILITY WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT AT LEAST MID 60 DEWPOINTS YIELD MODERATE INSTABILITY. THE MID LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE A LITTLE STRONGER ACROSS SRN LOWER MI/NRN IN AND NWRN OH....BUT THE EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR ALONG THE EXTENT OF THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE. THE WEAK WINDS ALOFT SUGGEST STORMS SHOULD BE SLOW MOVING AND ALSO QUICKLY BECOME OUTFLOW DOMINATED. BOUNDARY LAYER THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS MAY FAVOR A FEW SHORT LIVED MICROBURSTS...BUT THREAT APPEARS TOO LOW FOR MORE THAN A 5% RISK FOR SEVERE. ..IMY.. 08/03/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 3 16:20:17 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 03 Aug 2005 11:20:17 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200508031648.j73Gmo9A027162@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 031647 SWODY2 SPC AC 031646 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1146 AM CDT WED AUG 03 2005 VALID 041200Z - 051200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E MSS 25 N SYR 30 S JHW 20 W MFD 20 WSW LAF 10 NNW BMI 10 W MMO 30 WNW BEH 65 NNE MTC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CZZ 10 SSW RAL 40 NW DAG 40 SW DRA 45 SW SGU 30 NNW FLG 80 N INW 65 SE U24 MLD 25 N IDA 10 SE 3DU 30 E GTF 75 NE BIL 50 ENE COD 20 SSW CPR AKO 45 E BUB 15 ENE ALO 40 SSE ESC ANJ. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION WWD INTO NRN IL / NRN IN / SRN LOWER MI... ...SYNOPSIS... COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION / SEWD ACROSS MID MS AND OH VALLEYS AND CENTRAL PLAINS...AS MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN CANADA / ACROSS THE N CENTRAL AND INTO THE NERN CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH STRONGER FLOW ALOFT CONFINED TO NRN PORTIONS OF THE CONUS -- MAINLY N OF SURFACE FRONT...SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIMITED THROUGH THE PERIOD. ...LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION WSWWD ACROSS MO / ERN KS... THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION INVOF COLD FRONT. AS AIRMASS DESTABILIZES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION WSWWD INTO THE CENTRAL AND SRN ROCKIES. THOUGH MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT IN LOCALLY STRONG STORMS...STRONGER FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN CONFINED TO AREAS FROM THE GREAT LAKES NWD. IN FACT...MODELS SUGGEST THAT WLYS WILL EXTEND ONLY AS FAR S AS NEB / IA / NRN IL / NRN INDIANA...S OF WHICH MID-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AND NELY. AS A RESULT...GREATEST SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO EXIST FROM NRN IL / NRN INDIANA / LOWER MI INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...WHERE LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT. FURTHER WSWWD ALONG FRONT...WEAK / GENERALLY ELY WIND PROFILES SUGGEST ONLY A LOCAL / LIMITED SEVERE THREAT WITH DISORGANIZED / PULSE CONVECTION. THOUGH THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG BOUNDARY THROUGH THE PERIOD...SEVERE THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY WANE OVERNIGHT AS BOUNDARY LAYER SLOWLY COOLS / STABILIZES. ..GOSS.. 08/03/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 4 05:27:26 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 04 Aug 2005 00:27:26 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200508040555.j745tvRv023021@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 040552 SWODY2 SPC AC 040551 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1251 AM CDT THU AUG 04 2005 VALID 051200Z - 061200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CZZ 20 SW PMD BFL 40 NE SCK TVL 40 SSE TPH 55 N P38 50 WNW OGD MLD 35 NNW BPI CPR 50 SSE DGW SNY 35 NNW GLD RSL EMP COU MFD 20 WNW YNG ERI. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... THE SOUTHERN END OF A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING NEWD THROUGH QUEBEC IS FORECAST TO BRUSH THROUGH NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS TROUGH...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH NEW ENGLAND AND THE NRN ATLANTIC STATES BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE SRN END OF THIS FRONT WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY SWD AND EXTEND FROM DELMARVA SWWD THROUGH THE TN VALLEY AND THEN INTO SWRN TX BY LATE IN THE DAY. ...NEW ENGLAND AREA... LATEST NAM/GFS MODELS ARE A LITTLE SLOWER MOVING COLD FRONT THROUGH NEW ENGLAND THAN THE PAST FEW RUNS. HOWEVER...SATURATED VERTICAL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES AND LIFT AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUGGEST THAT EXTENSIVE CLOUDS/PCPN WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AHEAD OF THE FRONT DURING THE MORNING HOURS. IF SOME CLEARING/HEATING CAN OCCUR BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY...THUNDERSTORMS MAY REDEVELOP ALONG FRONT AS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. IF STORMS DEVELOP...DEEP LAYER SHEAR AT 30 TO 40 KT AND WSWLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS ALOFT MAY POSE A WIND THREAT. HOWEVER... UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY PRECLUDES A SLIGHT RISK. ...DELMARVA WWD THROUGH THE TN VALLEY SWWD INTO SWRN TX... CONVERGENCE AND DIURNAL HEATING OF MOIST AIR MASS SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE LENGTH OF COLD FRONT...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. WEAK WINDS THROUGHOUT THE TROPOSPHERE SHOULD RESULT IN SLOW MOVING AND OUTFLOW DOMINATED STORMS WITH LIMITED SEVERE POTENTIAL. ..IMY.. 08/04/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 5 05:09:37 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 05 Aug 2005 00:09:37 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200508050538.j755c4d8002686@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 050536 SWODY2 SPC AC 050535 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1235 AM CDT FRI AUG 05 2005 VALID 061200Z - 071200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE SAN 30 S RAL 45 NNE OXR 15 NE FAT 55 NNW SAC 10 E MHS 55 W BNO 45 NNE BKE 40 SE GTF 15 NNW 4BQ 35 WSW Y22 10 SE DIK 60 N ISN ...CONT... 85 NW ANJ 35 NNW EAU 10 SSE FRM 45 SE OMA 25 ENE STJ 35 SW IRK 30 SSE SPI 30 SW HUF 20 W CMH 20 NE PKB 30 WSW AOO 35 SE DOV. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... WEAKENING COLD FRONT WHICH SHOULD BE MOVING SEWD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND GULF COAST STATES / SWD ACROSS TX THIS PERIOD WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCUS OF WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS. MEANWHILE...A WEAKER / SECOND COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS / UPPER MS VALLEY REGION AS WEAK SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THIS REGION IN BELT OF WNWLY FLOW ALOFT. MODELS SUGGEST THAT CAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THIS REGION AHEAD OF FRONT SHOULD SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FOR THE MOST PART. MODELS HINT AT ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER NRN MN AFTER SUNSET...BUT SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TOO LOW ATTM TO OUTLINE A THREAT AREA. ..GOSS.. 08/05/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 5 16:17:04 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 05 Aug 2005 11:17:04 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200508051645.j75GjTZQ021875@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 051643 SWODY2 SPC AC 051642 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1142 AM CDT FRI AUG 05 2005 VALID 061200Z - 071200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE SAN 30 S RAL 45 NNE OXR 15 NE FAT 55 NNW SAC 10 E MHS 55 W BNO 40 ESE PDT 30 W BTM 15 NE SHR 10 E 81V 45 NNW RAP 45 ENE Y22 25 WSW DVL 75 NNW GFK ...CONT... 145 NE CMX 10 SW DLH 50 ENE ATY 10 SSW MHE 10 W HSI 35 ESE SLN 55 SSE OJC 20 SSE SPI 10 NW IND 20 W CMH 15 W HLG 30 WSW AOO 20 ENE NEL. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... MAIN BELT OF THE WLYS WILL REMAIN ALONG THE NRN TIER/CANADA INTO THE WEEKEND WITH GENERALLY WEAK FLOW ACROSS THE COUNTRY. THE COLD FRONT THAT CONTINUES TO SETTLE SWD INTO THE MIDDLE PORTIONS OF THE NATION WILL BECOME DIFFUSE ON SATURDAY. TSTMS WILL FAVOR THIS FRONT FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TO THE SRN PLAINS AND ACROSS THE SEASONAL MONSOON AREAS ACROSS THE SWRN STATES. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE WELL-DEFINED AREAS OF POTENTIAL ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS ATTM...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FL PENINSULA. ...FL PENINSULA... EAST/WEST COAST SEABREEZES WILL LIKELY BE IMPETUS FOR TSTMS AGAIN ON SATURDAY ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA. H5 TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT CHANGE MUCH FROM FRIDAY...REMAINING AROUND MINUS 8C. RELATIVELY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND STRONG INSOLATION WILL CONTRIBUTE TO VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WITH VIGOROUS MULTICELL UPDRAFTS LIKELY WITH POSSIBLE ISOLD LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ISOLD BRIEF TORNADOES COULD ALSO OCCUR WITH FAVORED BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS. ..RACY.. 08/05/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 6 05:26:56 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 06 Aug 2005 00:26:56 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200508060555.j765tIw0014871@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 060553 SWODY2 SPC AC 060552 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1252 AM CDT SAT AUG 06 2005 VALID 071200Z - 081200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW CZZ RAL 15 WNW PMD 40 NW TVL 20 NW RBL 35 ENE MFR 40 NW BKE 30 SW GTF 20 N BIL 20 N Y22 65 NNE MOT ...CONT... 15 ENE ANJ 45 E ESC 20 SSW IMT 15 N VOK 35 SW ALO 40 SSW P35 15 NW SZL 20 WSW COU 30 WSW SPI 10 SE MMO 35 W BEH 20 N JXN 30 SSE DTW 20 NNE YNG 10 E ROC 25 ENE ART 25 NNE MPV 20 SW BHB. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... BELT OF ENHANCED WLY FLOW IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THIS PERIOD ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF THE CONUS / SRN CANADA. MEANWHILE S OF THE MAIN BELT OF WLYS...WEAK RIDGE WILL PERSIST OVER THE WEST WHILE LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST / CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION MAY EVOLVE INTO A BROADER / WEAK TROUGH WITH TIME. REMNANTS OF OLD FRONT WHICH SHOULD LINGER ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES -- AND THE PERSISTENT UPPER LOW -- SHOULD REMAIN A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER...SOMEWHAT GREATER POTENTIAL FOR MORE ORGANIZED STORMS / SEVERE THREAT SHOULD EXIST ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS REGION. SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE DURING THE AFTERNOON...WHILE BRINGING A SECOND COLD FRONT SEWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. ...NRN PLAINS / UPPER MS VALLEY REGION... INITIAL COLD FRONT FORECAST TO SAG SWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS SHOULD RETREAT NWD AS A WARM FRONT EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WHILE SECOND FRONT DEVELOPS / MOVES ESEWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF CANADIAN SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. THOUGH CAPPING SHOULD INHIBIT STORM DEVELOPMENT INTO THE AFTERNOON...CONTINUED HEATING / DESTABILIZATION OF BOUNDARY LAYER COMBINED WITH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE INVOF FRONT SHOULD ALLOW AT LEAST ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR BY LATE AFTERNOON. THOUGH STRONGER FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE OF THIS FRONT...LOW-LEVEL SLYS VEERING TO NWLY THOUGH MID-LEVELS MAY YIELD SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR A FEW ORGANIZED / WEAKLY-ROTATING STORMS. WITH HAIL / LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS THUS POSSIBLE...WILL INTRODUCE SEVERE PROBABILITIES ACROSS THIS AREA. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP PROBABILITY AT ONLY 5% / BELOW CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK THRESHOLDS...GIVEN THAT STORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED AND SHEAR LIKELY TO REMAIN MARGINAL. SEVERE THREAT MAY EXTEND AS FAR E AS ERN MN / PARTS OF WRN WI BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...AS NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD SUSTAIN CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. ..GOSS.. 08/06/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 6 16:21:17 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 06 Aug 2005 11:21:17 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200508061649.j76GncuS021496@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 061647 SWODY2 SPC AC 061646 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1146 AM CDT SAT AUG 06 2005 VALID 071200Z - 081200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW CZZ 10 W RAL 40 WNW PMD 40 ENE SMX 25 S SCK 25 ESE UKI 40 SSW MHS 35 NE MFR 30 SE ALW 15 W GTF 40 NNW BIL 30 W REJ 35 NNW CDR 20 NNW SNY 20 NE GLD 25 S RSL 25 E CNU 25 ENE JEF 30 SE SBN 40 NNW YNG 10 SW MSV 15 ENE BID. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 ESE ANJ MQT 35 NNW EAU 15 S RWF 20 S ATY ABR 45 WNW FAR 45 WNW RRT. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...UPPER MS VALLEY REGION... FASTEST WLYS WILL REMAIN N OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER THROUGH SUNDAY. SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW REGIME WILL MOVE ACROSS SRN CANADA...SKIRTING THE NRN PLAINS EWD TO THE UPPER GRTLKS REGION. A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS...MOVING SWD IN WAKE OF EACH DISTURBANCE...WILL DIP INTO NRN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY...BUT WILL QUICKLY MOVE NWD GIVEN SHORT WAVE LENGTHS BETWEEN IMPULSES. ONE SUCH COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS SUNDAY AFTN/EVE. AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE VERY WARM AND CAPPED...LIMITING PROSPECTS FOR SURFACE BASED INITIATION ALONG THE FRONT. STRONGEST FORCING/LLJ SHOULD REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE BORDER WHERE SEVERE TSTM PROBABILITIES WILL BE MUCH HIGHER. MORE LIKELY SCENARIO WILL BE FOR ELEVATED TSTMS /POSSIBLY WITH HAIL/ TO DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG THE AXIS OF A SWLY LLJ/EDGE OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL CAP ACROSS PARTS OF NRN/CNTRL MN. THIS ACTIVITY MAY STREAK EWD INTO THE UPPER GRTLKS REGION BY 12Z MON. ..RACY.. 08/06/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 7 05:46:27 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 07 Aug 2005 00:46:27 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200508070614.j776EkGQ006906@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 070611 SWODY2 SPC AC 070610 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0110 AM CDT SUN AUG 07 2005 VALID 081200Z - 091200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MQT AUW MKT 10 W HON 35 NE PHP 40 S REJ 25 WNW REJ 50 WSW DIK DIK JMS 15 SE FAR 25 ESE BJI 25 E INL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNW VTN 55 S 81V 15 ESE LAR 10 SE COS 40 S LHX 25 SSW P28 20 E UMN BLV 25 SW MMO 30 WSW DBQ 35 SSE FSD 50 NNW VTN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SW MSS 15 ENE MPV 15 SSW PWM ...CONT... 10 WSW CZZ 20 SSE RAL 35 NW PMD 40 E FAT TVL 80 ESE 4LW 45 S S80 60 SE FCA 15 SE HVR 20 NNE OLF MOT 35 NNW GFK RRT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... SRN EDGE OF STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO SAG SWD ALONG THE SRN CANADIAN PRAIRIES/NRN PLAINS BORDER REGION TOMORROW AS SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS NOW OVER WRN CANADA MOVE EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PROVINCES. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS PARTS OF NRN/CNTRL MN THEN EXTEND WWD AS A QUASISTATIONARY FRONT ACROSS NRN SD..NERN WY..WRN MT. ...MN INTO WRN UPR MI AND NWRN WI... LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS OF 65-70F ACROSS THIS REGION TOMORROW. PLUME OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES (8-9 C/KM) IS FORECAST TO EXTEND EWD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO MN AND NWRN WI/WRN UPPER MI DURING THE DAY...CONTRIBUTING TO VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPE OF 3000-4000 J/KG. MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM THE ETA AND CONTROL RUN OF THE SREF ETAKF SUGGEST AN INVERSION NEAR 850 MB MAY INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE EARLY OR MID AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT COMBINATION OF DIURNAL HEATING AND LOCALIZED FORCING FOR UPWARD MOTION ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. ALTHOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR OF 25-30 KT WILL MARGINALLY SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION...VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP EWD INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS WITH GRADUALLY DIMINISHING SEVERE THREAT. ...PARTS OF DAKOTAS INTO MT... EASTERLY COMPONENT OF LOW LEVEL WINDS IMMEDIATELY NORTH OF THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN A RELATIVELY NARROW EAST/WEST AXIS OF MOISTURE ACROSS NRN SD/SRN ND INTO S CENTRAL/SERN MT...WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 50S IN ERN MT TO THE MID 60S IN ERN SD. THIS INSTABILITY AXIS WILL PROVIDE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT... INITIALLY OVER MT DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON WHERE UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL AID ASCENT...AND THEN EWD INTO THE DAKOTAS DURING THE EVENING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS OVER NEB AND SD AFTER DARK. THE STORMS OVER THE NRN PLAINS ARE LIKELY TO BE PRIMARILY ELEVATED NORTH OF THE FRONT...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD EWD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE FOR LARGE HAIL ALTHOUGH A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR MAINLY WITH STORMS CLOSEST TO THE FRONT. ..WEISS.. 08/07/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 7 16:02:36 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 07 Aug 2005 11:02:36 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200508071630.j77GUrdp005040@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 071628 SWODY2 SPC AC 071627 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1127 AM CDT SUN AUG 07 2005 VALID 081200Z - 091200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MQT AUW MKT 10 W HON 35 NE PHP 40 S REJ 25 WNW REJ 50 WSW DIK DIK JMS 15 SE FAR 25 ESE BJI 25 E INL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E UMN BLV 25 SW MMO 30 WSW DBQ 35 S MCW 20 N YKN 45 NNW BFF 25 W CYS 25 N COS 30 SW LHX 25 SW P28 20 E UMN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WSW CZZ 20 SSE RAL 35 NW PMD 40 E FAT TVL 80 ESE 4LW 45 S S80 60 SE FCA 15 SE HVR 20 NNE OLF MOT 35 NNW GFK RRT ...CONT... 10 SW MSS 15 ENE MPV 15 SSW PWM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO THE UPPER GRTLKS... ...UPPER MS VLY INTO THE UPPER GRTLKS REGION... SRN PERIPHERY OF MODEST WLYS WILL SETTLE SWD INTO THE NRN TIER OF THE COUNTRY MON. SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES ACROSS THE PRAIRIES AND INTO ONT. FRONTS ASSOCIATED WITH EACH WAVE WILL OSCILLATE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS...UPPER MS VLY AND UPPER GRTLKS REGION. ONE SUCH FRONT WILL SETTLE SWD ACROSS ERN MT...DAKS...CNTRL MN...NRN WI AND UPPER MI BY MON EVE. CONTINUED SLY TRANSPORT OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE UPPER MS VLY BENEATH A PLUME OF VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STREAMING EWD FROM THE NRN ROCKIES. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. SURFACE BASED PARCELS WILL LIKELY BE CAPPED MUCH OF THE AFTN. BUT...THERE IS EVIDENCE IN THE SREF AND LATEST NAMKF FORECAST SOUNDINGS THAT DIURNAL HEATING AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR TSTM INITIATION BY LATE AFTN/EVE. VERTICAL SHEAR OF 25-30 KTS IN COMBINATION WITH MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY WILL PROMOTE A FEW SEVERE TSTMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EWD MON NIGHT ACROSS THE UPPER GRTLKS REGION...BUT THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH WITH TIME. ...NRN PLAINS... NARROW INSTABILITY AXIS WILL DEVELOP ALONG/N OF SWD MOVING COLD FRONT FROM ERN MT EWD INTO PARTS OF THE DAKS WHERE ELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ADVECTS MOISTURE WWD. TSTMS ARE APT TO DEVELOP WITHIN THIS AXIS...PRIMARILY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MT INITIALLY WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW AIDS IN ASCENT. OTHER TSTMS WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP AFTER DARK FARTHER E ACROSS PARTS OF THE DAKS AS STRONGER LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS SPREAD EWD AND SLY LLJ STRENGTHENS. THESE STORMS MAY BE MOSTLY ELEVATED ATOP THE DEEPENING FRONTAL INVERSION AND WILL LIKELY DEVELOP EWD DURING THE NIGHT. PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL...THOUGH IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP CLOSER TO THE FRONT... DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE AN ADDED THREAT. ..RACY.. 08/07/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 8 05:52:15 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 08 Aug 2005 00:52:15 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200508080620.j786KVDT012016@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 080618 SWODY2 SPC AC 080617 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0117 AM CDT MON AUG 08 2005 VALID 091200Z - 101200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ANJ 45 NE GRB 25 SSE LSE 15 SW MCW 40 SW SPW 10 SSW FSD 10 SSE ATY 10 ESE AXN 20 ENE DLH. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 W CDR SHR 25 SW BIL 50 N BIL 30 NW MLS 50 NNW REJ 35 ESE REJ 45 SE RAP 50 W CDR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CZZ RAL BFL FAT 25 SW TVL 15 SSE SVE 75 ESE 4LW 15 ESE BOI 27U MSO 65 NW FCA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PVW GAG CNU STL MTO 30 NNE IND 40 S FDY 10 N CAK 35 WSW ERI 15 NE DTW 15 NE LAN 45 NW BEH 10 SSE RFD 15 SW OTM CNK 35 NW GCK 45 N CAO 10 WSW TCC 55 NNW HOB 25 W LBB PVW. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SRN MT INTO WRN SD... ...SYNOPSIS... BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS SEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CANADIAN PRAIRIES. WESTERLIES ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN FROM THE NRN ROCKIES ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SLIGHT AMPLIFICATION OF THE FLOW PATTERN. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES SWWD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE PERIOD AS A LOW MOVES EWD FROM SD EARLY IN THE PERIOD TO UPR MI BY 10/12Z. THE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE NWWD AS A WARM FRONT FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ACROSS ERN WY INTO WRN MT. ...UPPER MS VALLEY... ELEVATED MCS MAY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD OVER PARTS OF ND AND NRN MN TO THE NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE EWD DURING THE MORNING. THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO BE MOIST WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 65-70F RANGE...WITH MLCAPE OF 2000-3000 J/KG EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON. STRONG DIURNAL HEATING IN THE WARM SECTOR COUPLED WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE CAP. ETA/GFS/CONTROL RUN OF SREF ETAKF ALL DEVELOP CONVECTION NEAR THE FRONT BY LATE AFTERNOON FROM WRN UPR MI ACROSS NWRN WI..AND CENTRAL/SRN MN...POSSIBLY EXTENDING SWWD INTO SERN SD/NNERN NEB...AND NWRN IA. MID LEVEL FLOW OF 30-35 KT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THREAT FOR A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WITH POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ACTIVITY MAY CONTINUE TO SPREAD EWD AND SEWD DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALTHOUGH SEVERE THREAT IS LIKELY TO DIMINISH BY 03-06Z. ...SRN MT INTO WRN SD... LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD WWD FROM SD INTO S CENTRAL/SERN MT IN THE UPSLOPE EASTERLY FLOW TO THE NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOW/MID 50S ACROSS THIS AREA. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7.5-8.0 C/KM WILL CONTRIBUTE TO UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG. ETA AND SREF GUIDANCE INDICATE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTH CENTRAL MT...SPREADING EWD/SEWD TOWARD WRN SD INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO EXHIBIT STRONG DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEAR WITH HEIGHT AS ESELY LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER TO 40-45 KT WLY FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS...WITH 40-50 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THIS SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS TO DEVELOP WITH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY 06Z. ..WEISS.. 08/08/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 8 17:02:29 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 08 Aug 2005 12:02:29 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200508081730.j78HUhYg020114@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 081728 SWODY2 SPC AC 081727 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1227 PM CDT MON AUG 08 2005 VALID 091200Z - 101200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE APN 25 WSW MBL 30 S LNR 25 ESE FOD 30 NW SUX 55 W YKN 20 S HON 30 W STC 60 N EAU 30 SSE CMX 80 NW ANJ. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE CPR SHR 45 NNW COD 20 NE HLN 30 SSE CTB 20 NNW HVR 70 WNW GGW 40 NNE MLS 45 WNW REJ 15 NNW CDR 15 NNE BFF 40 SE DGW 35 ENE CPR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CZZ 25 NW DAG 45 ENE PRB 45 WNW SAC 40 NW MHS 40 SE RDM 20 NNE BNO 30 ESE BAM 25 WSW PUC 45 WSW CAG 15 E RKS 15 SSW JAC IDA 40 SSE BOI 35 ESE BKE 25 SSW MSO 50 NW 63S. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N GAG 15 S BVO 25 SE SGF 15 NNW COU 50 SW IRK 15 NW STJ 30 NNE SLN 20 SW DDC 40 N GAG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NNE ISN 40 NNW P24 30 NNW BIS 50 SW GFK 30 ENE FAR 25 ENE HIB 40 N IWD 65 NE CMX. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF MI WSWWD INTO SERN SD... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... WEAK WRN RIDGE / ERN TROUGH PATTERN ALOFT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE CONUS THIS PERIOD...WHILE STRONGER BELT OF WLYS SHOULD REMAIN OVER SRN CANADA / THE NRN CONUS. AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT INITIALLY FORECAST FROM UPPER MI WSWWD INTO SD SHOULD MOVE SEWD WITH TIME...LIKELY EXTENDING FROM LOWER MI WSWWD INTO KS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. MOST ACTIVE / INTENSE CONVECTION THIS PERIOD SHOULD DEVELOP IN A ZONE FROM THE NRN PLAINS EWD INTO THE UPPER LAKES...INVOF SURFACE BOUNDARY / BENEATH CYCLONICALLY-CURVED WLYS. ...UPPER GREAT LAKES SWWD TOWARD THE MIDDLE MO VALLEY... STORMS MAY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS / UPPER MS VALLEY / WRN UPPER LAKES REGION INVOF COLD FRONT. LOW-END SEVERE THREAT MAY PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON WITHIN STRONGER CLUSTERS OF THIS CONVECTION...WHILE ELSEWHERE AHEAD OF FRONT AIRMASS SHOULD BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. NEW STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP INVOF FRONT BY MID-AFTERNOON -- PARTICULARLY FROM NRN LOWER MI WWD ACROSS WI INTO SRN MN...JUST AHEAD OF MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WHICH SHOULD BE CROSSING THIS REGION. THOUGH STRONGEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD REMAIN N OF SURFACE FRONT...SHEAR NEAR / JUST S OF FRONT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME STORM ORGANIZATION AND ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS / HAIL. STORMS / LIMITED SEVERE THREAT MAY PERSIST WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS LOW-LEVEL JET WHICH SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS WI / LOWER MI SUSTAINS ACTIVE CONVECTION ACROSS THIS PORTION OF THE AREA. ...NRN HIGH PLAINS... ELY LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW IS FORECAST ACROSS CENTRAL MT / ERN WY ON COOL SIDE OF FRONT AS BOUNDARY MOVES SWD / WWD AND STALLS ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THOUGH POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT DRY THUS LIMITING AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION...INSTABILITY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SRN MT / ERN WY. WITH MODERATE WLY FLOW ALOFT FORECAST ABOVE VEERING LOW-LEVEL WINDS...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS SHOULD EVOLVE ACROSS THIS REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON / EVENING. THEREFORE...THOUGH STORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED...HAIL AND LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED. THOUGH CLUSTER OF STORMS MAY SHIFT EWD INTO WRN ND OVERNIGHT AIDED BY DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL JET...MORE LIMITED INSTABILITY ACROSS THIS REGION SHOULD YIELD ONLY A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT. ..GOSS.. 08/08/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 9 16:46:28 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 09 Aug 2005 11:46:28 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200508091714.j79HEcnf008826@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 091711 SWODY2 SPC AC 091710 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1210 PM CDT TUE AUG 09 2005 VALID 101200Z - 111200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE MHN 20 WSW CDR 25 NNW 81V 20 S MLS 40 SE GDV 30 ENE Y22 20 NNW MHE 30 SSW YKN 20 SE MHN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NNW LTS 10 SE OKC MKO 15 WSW SGF 15 SSE SZL 25 NE MKC 15 NNW SLN LBL 10 SW DHT CVS 10 SE PVW 10 NNW LTS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NNW DVL FAR 45 SSW AXN 10 NNE MKT 20 ESE LSE GRB 25 ESE ANJ ...CONT... 45 S VCT 25 NNE COT 35 SSE DRT ...CONT... 10 SE CZZ 10 E RAL PMD 20 NNE BFL 40 NNE FAT 15 SSW TVL 35 ESE SVE 45 NW WMC OWY 45 W SUN 65 NW 27U 75 NW FCA. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE NRN PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... IN RESPONSE TO THE BLOCKING HIGH OVER ALASKA...UNSEASONABLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL CANADA. BAND OF STRONG WESTERLIES ALONG U.S./CANADIAN BORDER WILL SLOWLY DEVELOP SWD INTO NRN TIER OF STATES IN RESPONSE TO THE LARGE SCALE CHANGES TO THE N. S/W TROUGHS WILL LIKELY BE EMBEDDED IN THE FAST ZONAL FLOW WHICH IS DIFFICULT TO FORECAST THIS FAR AHEAD. COOL FRONT MOVING THRU THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT BY WED AM WILL STRETCH WSWWD FROM SWRN ONTARIO TO IA AND THEN NWWD ACROSS PLAINS TO NERN WY/SERN MT. AS COOL SURFACE HIGH PUSHES SEWD FROM ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN...ANOTHER COOL FRONT WILL PUSH FRONTAL ZONE SWD THRU THE NRN PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ...NRN PLAINS... SELY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY NRN HIGH PLAINS RESULTING IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RESIDING S OF FRONTAL ZONE SPREADING NWWD. UPSLOPE COUPLED WITH INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR AS 40-50KT OF FLOW AT 500MB DEVELOPS SWD THRU DAKOTAS WILL SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS INITIATING OVER NRN HIGH PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON. 50KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MLCAPES TO 2000 J/KG WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...EVOLVING INTO AN MCS AS THEY TRACK EWD ACROSS SD/NRN NEB WED NIGHT. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE PARTICULARLY WITH ANY MCS THAT DEVELOPS. ...GREAT LAKES REGION... THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO WED AM NEAR THE COOL FRONT FROM SRN LWR MI TO IA. WHILE AIR MASS WILL BE MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AHEAD OF FRONT...THE MODEST LAPSE RATES AND WEAKENING DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL. A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY BY PEAK HEATING...HOWEVER MARGINAL SHEAR PARAMETERS PRECLUDES FORECASTING A RISK AREA ATTM. ..HALES.. 08/09/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 10 05:48:41 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 10 Aug 2005 00:48:41 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200508100616.j7A6GoWb023813@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 100613 SWODY2 SPC AC 100612 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0112 AM CDT WED AUG 10 2005 VALID 111200Z - 121200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WNW RRT 40 E FAR 25 S RWF 40 E SUX 35 ENE BUB 25 E AIA 45 ESE DGW 30 S GCC 35 WSW GDV 65 NW MOT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S ALO 45 S LSE 10 ESE LNR 15 NE CGX 10 S SBN 35 WSW FWA 20 WSW IND 10 NNW MTO 30 NE UIN 20 NNE OTM 15 S ALO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE OXR 50 ENE PRB 25 NNW TVL 15 SSE WMC 60 NE EKO 30 WNW MLD 15 SW BPI 30 ESE JAC 10 SSW DLN 35 S S06 10 SSE GEG 35 W 4OM 30 WNW BLI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE ERI 30 SE BFD 10 SSW MSV 25 NW ORH PWM 40 N AUG 50 NW 3B1. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ON THURSDAY ACROSS ERN IA/SRN WI TO NRN INDIANA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... BLOCKING HIGH OVER ALASKA COMBINED WITH AN UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER HUDSON BAY WILL MAINTAIN ZONAL FLOW FROM THE NWRN STATES TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND EWD INTO NEW ENGLAND. STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DIG SEWD ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA...REACHING SRN MANITOBA/SRN SASKATCHEWAN BY 12Z FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...A LEAD UPPER TROUGH SHOULD TRACK NEWD ACROSS QUEBEC AND THE MARITIME PROVINCES... WITH SEVERAL WEAKER DISTURBANCES TRAVERSING THE NRN ONE THIRD OF THE U.S. WITHIN THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. ...ERN IA/SRN WI/NRN IL/NRN IND... AN MCS...POTENTIALLY PRODUCING SEVERE STORMS...IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ACROSS THE MID MO VALLEY TO PARTS OF SRN MN AND IA. SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND MCV WITH THIS MCS WILL TRACK EWD TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION ALLOWING A WARM FRONT TO RETREAT NEWD ACROSS IA/IL/IND TOWARD THE SRN GREAT LAKES REGION. SWLY LLJ AND WAA REGIME SUPPORTING ONGOING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX ARE EXPECTED TO SUSTAIN WAA CONVECTION THROUGH MUCH OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS SUGGEST AIRMASS ALONG AND S OF THE RETREATING WARM FRONT AND ONGOING MCS SHOULD BECOME SUFFICIENTLY UNSTABLE /MLCAPE UP TO 1500 J/KG/...WITH MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTING MULTICELLS. A FEW EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS LOCALLY STRONGER. ...NRN PLAINS... A SURFACE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY FROM SWRN IA SWWD TO WRN KS ON THURSDAY AS A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL STATES. AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH WAA SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS...WITH THIS ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO TRACK ENE ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO ONTARIO. A PLUME OF STEEP LAPSE RATES SPREADING EWD ATOP A MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER WILL RESULT IN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN THE PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS. MODELS SUGGEST THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF ERN MT/ERN WY INTO WRN DAKOTAS...AND ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WHERE CONVERGENCE WILL BE STRONGER. INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR COMBINED WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS WITH THIS ACTIVITY. FURTHER INCREASE IN WLY MID LEVEL FLOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND SLY LLJ NOSING INTO NEB/SD SUGGESTS UPSCALE GROWTH INTO AN MCS ACROSS THIS REGION. FARTHER S ALONG THE QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY...INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME FAIRLY STRONG FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...WEAKER DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD PRECLUDE A WIDESPREAD THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS AND A CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK. ...SRN NEW ENGLAND... COLD FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS ERN CANADA ON THURSDAY...IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ESEWD ACROSS ERN NEW ENGLAND AND EXTEND FROM OFF THE NE COAST TO VA BY THURSDAY EVENING. STRONGEST MID LEVEL FLOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE POST FRONTAL AIR MASS. A PLUME OF MODERATE INSTABILITY IS PROGGED TO EXTEND FROM THE ERN MID ATLANTIC STATES TO FAR SRN NEW ENGLAND IN THE PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS...SUPPORTING SOME THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS THE FRONT MOVES ESE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY BECOME LOCALLY STRONG ENOUGH FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND...AS THIS REGION REMAINS ON THE SRN FRINGE OF STRONGER FLOW ALOFT. ..PETERS.. 08/10/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 11 05:35:26 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 11 Aug 2005 00:35:26 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200508110603.j7B63V4d003228@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 110601 SWODY2 SPC AC 110600 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0100 AM CDT THU AUG 11 2005 VALID 121200Z - 131200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CLE 25 S MFD 15 ESE DAY 20 SSE HUF 20 SSW STL 50 SSW SZL 30 E EMP FNB 15 NNE BRL 35 NNE CGX 30 NNE MTC. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE AKO 15 NNW CYS 35 NNW DGW 20 SSE 81V 15 SSE RAP 30 WSW ANW 45 W EAR 20 SW MCK 35 SE AKO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW CZZ 15 NW NID 25 ENE MER 60 SSE RBL 45 SE MHS 55 NE SVE 25 E LOL 65 E U31 15 ESE U24 10 NNW CNY 40 WNW ASE 35 SSW RWL 35 WNW LND 40 W 27U 25 NE PUW 35 N 3TH 45 ENE HLN 20 N BIL 10 E 4BQ 35 W ABR 30 N STC 20 NE IWD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NNW 3B1 15 SW ISP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE BPT 25 WNW HEZ 10 SSW GLH 65 S UNO 35 S JLN 40 S PNC 15 NNE LTS 45 SE MAF 25 SE P07. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SERN LOWER MI TO NRN MO... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HIGH PLAINS... ...OH VALLEY TO MO... LATE EVENING MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT NEWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY DURING THE DAY2 PERIOD AS UPSTREAM TROUGH DIGS SEWD INTO WY. THIS LEAD FEATURE SHOULD ENHANCE CONVECTION ALONG REMNANT FRONTAL ZONE WHERE LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE SHOULD BE FOCUSED FROM NRN MO INTO EXTREME SERN LOWER MI. DESPITE MARGINAL WSW DEEP LAYER SHEAR...IT APPEARS PROFILES WILL FAVOR BOW-TYPE STRUCTURES WITHIN A FAIRLY DEEP/MOIST...YET MODESTLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AND EARLY INITIATION MAY LIMIT HEATING ALONG OLD WIND SHIFT...HOWEVER DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ALONG ERN FRINGES OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD ALLOW THIS ACTIVITY TO SPREAD/DEVELOP EWD OFF THE BOUNDARY INTO A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ...ERN WY TO WRN NEB... THUNDERSTORM INITIATION WILL OCCUR LATE IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS REGION FROM WY INTO NEB AHEAD OF STRONG FRONTAL SURGE. MODELS INSIST A RATHER DEEP ELY COMPONENT IN THE LOW LEVELS...AT LEAST THROUGH 2KM...WILL MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS PARCELS NEAR THEIR CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES. FORECAST SHEAR PROFILES BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR STORM ROTATION AND POSSIBLE SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT AS FLOW VEERS AND INCREASES AT HIGH LEVELS WITHIN BASE OF SHARPENING UPPER TROUGH. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN MCS MAY EVOLVE ACROSS WRN NEB BEFORE SPREADING ESEWD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE. ONE POSSIBLE INHIBITING FACTOR FOR AN EXPANSIVE MCS OVER THIS REGION IS THE LIKLIHOOD OF SIGNIFICANT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS KS INTERCEPTING A MORE FOCUSED LLJ DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AT ANY RATE...THERE APPEARS TO BE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SUPERCELLS THROUGH MID EVENING BEFORE AN EVOLUTION TO A LARGER CLUSTER OF STORMS LATE IN THE PERIOD. ..DARROW.. 08/11/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 11 17:22:11 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 11 Aug 2005 12:22:11 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200508111750.j7BHoETK011035@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 111747 SWODY2 SPC AC 111746 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1246 PM CDT THU AUG 11 2005 VALID 121200Z - 131200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW DEN 55 NNE LAR 35 NNW DGW 20 SSE 81V 15 SSE RAP 40 W 9V9 40 SW MHE 25 SSW YKN 15 N GRI 30 SSE LBF 45 WNW GLD 30 SW DEN. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSE ISP 25 ENE IPT 30 S JHW 10 SSW MFD 30 ESE BMG 30 S STL 55 SSW SZL 30 ESE EMP FNB 25 SW LWD 15 SW IRK 20 WNW MMO 50 NNE MTC ...CONT... 35 NE PBG 40 E PWM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE CZZ 30 E RAL 60 S DRA 50 NNW DRA 50 SSE ELY 15 ESE U24 40 NW 4BL 25 N EGE 45 WSW LAR 35 WNW LND 55 SSW 27U 45 WNW PUW 15 NE 63S 40 N MSO 60 NNW SHR 25 SW Y22 40 NW AXN 10 SE ALO 30 N APN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE BPT 35 N ESF 40 NNW ELD 35 SE FSI 55 ESE LBB 10 SSE MAF 20 SE P07. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SRN NEW ENGLAND WSWWD INTO MO... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER ERN WY / NERN CO / SRN SD / MUCH OF NEB... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO EXPAND / SHIFT SWD ACROSS THE N CENTRAL CONUS THIS PERIOD...WITH STRONGER BELT OF WLYS AFFECTING THE NRN THIRD OF THE CONUS. COLD FRONT INITIALLY FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION SWWD ACROSS NRN MO INTO KS WILL SHIFT RAPIDLY EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND EVENTUALLY INTO NEW ENGLAND. MEANWHILE...FRONT SHOULD LINGER / PERHAPS DRIFT SLOWLY SWD ACROSS KS AND INTO NRN OK THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHILE A REINFORCING SURGE OF COOL AIR IS FORECAST TO MOVE SWD ACROSS THE NRN AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE IN THE PERIOD. AS FRONT MOVES EWD / DRIFTS SWD...IT SHOULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT -- AND ASSOCIATED SEVERE THREAT -- THROUGH THE DAY 2 PERIOD. ... SRN NEW ENGLAND / LOWER GREAT LAKES SWWD INTO MO... AS WARM SECTOR AIRMASS BECOMES MODERATELY UNSTABLE...EXPECT STORM DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION WSWWD INTO PARTS OF IL / MO INVOF SURFACE COLD FRONT -- AS WELL AS ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND INVOF WARM FRONT. THOUGH DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD WILL WEAKEN WITH SWD EXTENT...STRONGER FLOW ALOFT IS ANTICIPATED FROM NRN IL / NRN INDIANA EWD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AND INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND. THOUGH LOCALLY STRONG / SEVERE PULSE-TYPE CONVECTION MAY OCCUR ACROSS MO / IL / IN...MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION -- ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME HAIL -- IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AND INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND. SCATTERED STORMS / STORM CLUSTERS MAY CONTINUE INVOF FRONT / WITHIN WARM SECTOR THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...THOUGH SEVERE THREAT SHOULD SLOWLY DECREASE WITH DIURNAL STABILIZATION. ...ERN WY / NERN CO INTO SRN SD / NEB... THOUGH MAIN COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN S OF THIS REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD...WARM ADVECTION REGIME IS FORECAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS REGION AS BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW TURNS SWD OF SECONDARY SURGE OF COOL AIR. IN CONJUNCTION WITH DAYTIME HEATING...500 TO 1500 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE...WITH STORM DEVELOPMENT FORECAST -- BOTH WITHIN LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS NERN CO / SERN WY...AND MORE GENERALLY WITHIN LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF NEB AND SRN SD. WITH 30 TO 40 KT WLY FLOW ALOFT FORECAST ABOVE SLY / SELY FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE / SUPERCELL STORMS SHOULD RESULT IN A THREAT FOR HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. AS LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT...STORMS MAY MERGE INTO ONE OR MORE MCSS -- ALONG WITH CONTINUED /LOW-END SEVERE THREAT. ..GOSS.. 08/11/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 12 05:54:00 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 12 Aug 2005 00:54:00 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200508120622.j7C6M51h016005@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 120620 SWODY2 SPC AC 120619 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0119 AM CDT FRI AUG 12 2005 VALID 131200Z - 141200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE IPL 50 SW LAS 20 NW P38 30 WSW PUC 30 NNE VEL 50 WSW RWL 30 NW LAR 15 ESE CYS 40 SSW IML 15 ENE HLC 30 SW BIE 40 SSW FOD 45 SE RST 20 SE OSH 55 SE OSC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW ART 35 ESE AUG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S CRP 35 WNW VCT 35 SE CLL 25 NNE POE 45 ENE MLU 45 WSW MEM 50 S HRO 20 S DUA 35 SSE ABI DRT. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... NEXT IN A SERIES OF FRONTAL SURGES WILL REINFORCE BROAD ZONE OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS REGION...NEWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND. EACH SUCCESSIVE AIRMASS INTRUSION APPEARS MORE FALL-LIKE IN REGARDS TO FRONTAL SLOPE WITH WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR ALONG LEADING WIND SHIFT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG THIS ZONE OF INTEREST SUGGEST DEEP LAYER THERMAL PROFILES WILL PROVE COOL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EARLY IN THE DIURNAL CYCLE...LIKELY BY 18Z...IN ADDITION TO ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DUE TO WARM ADVECTION NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. IN THE ABSENCE OF STRONGER FLOW AT LOWER LATITUDES...IT'S NOT PARTICULARLY EVIDENT EARLY THIS MORNING WHETHER ANY WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL RIPPLE NEWD ALONG FRONTAL ZONE ENHANCING LOCAL CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION. THIS IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION WITHIN DEEPER PLUME OF MID-HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM NRN MEXICO INTO THE SRN ROCKIES. WITH TIME LARGE SCALE PATTERN AMPLIFIES ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. AT ANY RATE...DEEP...MOIST SWLY TRAJECTORIES ALONG FRONTAL ZONE WILL PROVE FAVORABLE FOR EPISODIC CONVECTIVE EVENTS...MODULATED BY DIURNAL HEATING FOR AREAS IMMEDIATELY SOUTH WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CORES NEAR THE WIND SHIFT...HOWEVER FORECASTING ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR ANY PARTICULAR REGION FROM NWRN TX INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND WOULD BE ARDUOUS AT BEST. ..DARROW.. 08/12/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 12 17:15:01 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 12 Aug 2005 12:15:01 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200508121743.j7CHh3gr024507@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 121740 SWODY2 SPC AC 121739 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1239 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2005 VALID 131200Z - 141200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW ART 35 ESE AUG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S CRP 10 WNW SAT 15 ENE AUS 35 ESE LFK 30 W ELD 40 ENE PBF 35 ESE PAH 20 SSE MDH 30 SSE UMN 50 SE SPS 35 NNE SJT DRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW IPL 20 W EED 45 W P38 35 WSW MLF 30 NE U17 30 W MTJ 35 W EGE 30 SW CAG 50 NE EVW 25 WSW JAC 40 ENE WEY 40 ENE RIW 35 W CDR 45 ENE ANW 50 SW FOD 20 E CID 20 SSE MKE 40 ESE OSC. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BROADEN / DEEPEN ACROSS THE N CENTRAL CONUS AS STRONG SHORT-WAVE TROUGH NOW DIGGING SEWD OUT OF WRN CANADA MOVES INTO THE NRN PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THOUGH STRONGER BELT OF CYCLONIC / WLY FLOW ALOFT WILL LIKEWISE SHIFT SLIGHTLY SWD THIS PERIOD...STRONGER FLOW SHOULD REMAIN N OF SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE. THUS...ALTHOUGH THIS BOUNDARY -- EXTENDING FROM SRN NEW ENGLAND ACROSS THE MIDWEST / OH VALLEY REGION INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS -- SHOULD BE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION...IT APPEARS ATTM THAT ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED. ...SRN NEW ENGLAND ACROSS THE MIDWEST TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... SCATTERED STORMS / CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...PERHAPS ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MO / MID MS VALLEYS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW-LEVEL JET. THIS CLUSTER OF STORMS SHOULD PERSIST...WHILE NEW STORMS DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES ALONG AND S OF BOUNDARY. ALONG WITH BOUNDARY-LAYER / SURFACE-BASED STORMS...STORMS SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP IN ELY POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS CO...AND IN WARM ADVECTION REGIME N OF BOUNDARY ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. DESPITE WHAT SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION -- PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOON...DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD INVOF FRONT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. ATTM...GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS APPEARS TO EXIST ACROSS CO WHERE VEERING DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD WITH HEIGHT COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED ROTATING STORMS PENDING SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION...AND ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION WHERE MODERATE WLY FLOW AT LOW- TO MID-LEVELS COULD SUPPORT A THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WITH SMALL-SCALE LINES. ..GOSS.. 08/12/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 13 04:51:34 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 12 Aug 2005 23:51:34 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200508130609.j7D691fc015758@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 130607 SWODY2 SPC AC 130606 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0106 AM CDT SAT AUG 13 2005 VALID 141200Z - 151200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E CZZ 25 ESE NID 25 S TPH ELY 50 SSE SLC 30 ESE VEL 50 WSW LAR 15 WNW CYS 20 NNW AKO 15 ENE GLD 50 NNE GCK 20 S RSL 20 W LWD 25 WSW RFD 35 WSW GRR 20 NE MTC ...CONT... 25 NNW SYR 20 ESE PSM. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...OH VALLEY TO SRN NEW ENGLAND... LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A CONVECTIVELY-INDUCED WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL WORK ITS WAY OUT OF THE SRN/CNTRL ROCKIES REGION...ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY INTO THE OH VALLEY DURING THE DAY2 PERIOD. DESPITE WEAK/NEUTRAL HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT...INCREASED VERTICAL ASCENT DOWNSTREAM ALONG OLD FRONTAL ZONE WOULD ENHANCE CONVECTIVE THREAT BY MID DAY FROM IND/OH...EWD TOWARD SRN NEW ENGLAND. MODELS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY AGGRESSIVE WITH BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR FROM THE WEST EXPECTED TO BE ROUGHLY ON THE ORDER OF 25KT. MULTICELL UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF EVOLVING INTO SHORT BOW SEGMENTS WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE GREATEST SEVERE THREAT. OTHERWISE...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP WITHIN A VERY MOIST PLUME NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 1.5-2 INCHES...FROM SRN NEW ENGLAND...SWWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS. ..DARROW.. 08/13/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 14 05:01:31 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 14 Aug 2005 00:01:31 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200508140618.j7E6Is9f007564@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 140616 SWODY2 SPC AC 140615 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0115 AM CDT SUN AUG 14 2005 VALID 151200Z - 161200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW CZZ 30 NW MER 10 S RBL 30 SSE MHS 60 E MHS 40 NW LOL 20 ENE BAM 40 ENE RKS 20 SE CPR 30 S 4BQ 45 NE Y22 50 N BIS 45 NNW MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 E DLH 40 NNW RWF 25 WNW MHE 30 NW MHN 40 W GLD 50 NNE GCK 35 N TOP 20 SW DNV 40 SE DAY 25 NW MRB 40 NNW ILG 20 SSE POU 15 ENE PSM. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST TO SRN PLAINS... LARGE SCALE HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN RISING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CNTRL U.S. AS FLOW BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED AND WLY ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER. DESPITE THIS SUBTLE CHANGE...AFFECTIVE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...STRETCHING FROM THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST...ACROSS THE TN VALLEY REGION INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUITE HIGH ALONG THIS ZONE WITH VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 1.5-2 INCHES. RESULTANT FORECAST SOUNDINGS YIELD NEARLY MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES NEAR THIS DECAYING FRONTAL ZONE WHERE NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OFF AND ON THROUGH THE PERIOD. GRADUALLY WEAKENING DEEP LAYER FLOW SHOULD LEAD TO FEWER DIURNALLY ENHANCED DOWNDRAFTS THAN IN PREVIOUS DAYS...THUS LOW PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ...NRN PLAINS... INCREASING WLY FLOW ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES WILL ALLOW LEE TROUGH TO BECOME MORE FOCUSED FROM SERN MT INTO WRN NEB LATE IN THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH WARM ADVECTION WILL INCREASE AFTER DARK ACROSS THIS REGION IT APPEARS ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAY2 PERIOD DUE TO WEAK UPPER RIDGING AND MODIFYING BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS. LATEST THINKING IS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP BY EARLY EVENING NEAR THE BLACK HILLS...AND DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALONG SYNOPTIC FRONT AS IT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS/NWRN MN. HOWEVER FORECAST INSTABILITY /FORCING APPEARS TOO MARGINAL TO WARRANT A PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME. ..DARROW.. 08/14/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 17 10:30:34 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 17 Aug 2005 05:30:34 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200508171148.j7HBm6s7015298@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 150555 SWODY2 SPC AC 150554 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1254 AM CDT MON AUG 15 2005 VALID 161200Z - 171200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NNW DVL 20 SE DVL 25 SE JMS 60 NE MBG 10 E Y22 70 SSE GDV 35 WSW GDV 50 N GGW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CZZ 25 W BFL 30 WNW SAC 50 W RBL 50 WNW MHS 10 NW 4LW 15 ESE TWF 40 N RKS 10 WNW CPR 10 E SHR 30 E 3HT 10 SSE HLN 40 W MSO GEG 45 NW 4OM ...CONT... 25 N ELO 30 NE IMT 15 SSE GRB 45 SSW LSE 15 NW YKN 15 SE VTN 40 N IML 55 SSW HLC 30 WSW CNU 25 SW JEF 20 WSW DEC 25 E MIE 20 NE ACY. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NRN PLAINS... ...NRN PLAINS... LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS HAS BEEN SLOWED BY PERSISTENT BAND OF CONVECTION ALONG OLD FRONTAL ZONE FROM THE TX SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE OH VALLEY REGION. HOWEVER...AS LEE TROUGH BECOMES MORE FOCUSED FROM ERN CO INTO THE BLACK HILLS AREA...A NARROW AXIS OF MOISTURE SHOULD WORK ITS WAY NWD INTO A REGION OF INCREASED INTEREST FROM ERN MT INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH NEGLIGIBLE HEIGHT FALLS/RISES ACROSS THE NRN U.S...BUT INCREASING LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SHOULD ENHANCE ASCENT NORTH OF SYNOPTIC FRONT LATE IN THE PERIOD. BEFORE THIS OCCURS...STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING WILL ENHANCE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES CREATING AN ENVIRONMENT SEEMINGLY FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS PARCELS REACH THEIR CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE. LATEST THINKING IS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL EVOLVE NEAR THE FRONTAL ZONE AROUND 00Z...THEN POTENTIALLY EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS MUCH OF ND DURING THE MID-LATE EVENING HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FAVOR STORM ROTATION AND SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF SUFFICIENT MOISTURE CAN RETURN TO THIS REGION. WITH TIME AN MCS MAY EVOLVE AS LLJ INCREASES INTO ND LATE. LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WITH OVERNIGHT STORMS. ...MIDDLE ATLANTIC... ERN EXTENT OF NEARLY STATIONARY DEEP MOIST PLUME SHOULD COINCIDE WITH JUST ENOUGH FLOW THROUGH A DEEP LAYER TO WARRANT A THREAT OF MULTI-CELL UPDRAFTS TUESDAY. IF SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING CAN OCCUR BEFORE CONVECTION DEVELOPS...STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WOULD FAVOR A FEW STRONG STORMS EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS OVER PORTIONS OF VA INTO NC. EVEN SO...ISOLATED WET MICROBURSTS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT AND AREAL COVERAGE DOES NOT APPEAR SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT A SLIGHT RISK. ..DARROW.. 08/15/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 17 10:30:32 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 17 Aug 2005 05:30:32 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200508171148.j7HBm4NK015286@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 141732 SWODY2 SPC AC 141731 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1231 PM CDT SUN AUG 14 2005 VALID 151200Z - 161200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NW ANJ 25 ENE VOK 15 N FOD 10 WSW BUB 20 NE MCK 10 WSW RSL 20 NNE EMP 40 N COU 15 SSW BMI 15 NE MIE 25 S CMH 10 ENE AOO 10 SE IPT 30 NW ALB 10 S LEB PSM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E OXR 30 SSW MER 15 NW SAC 45 SSE EKA 20 NNE ACV 10 S LMT 10 W OWY 35 SE VEL 35 WNW FCL 35 S DGW 10 WSW SHR 10 WNW MLS 30 NNW GDV 75 NNE OLF. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... BROAD BELT OF CYCLONIC / WLY FLOW ALOFT SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS THE NRN THIRD OF THE CONUS AND NWD INTO CANADA THIS PERIOD. COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WHILE WWD EXTENSION OF FRONT ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEYS INTO THE PLAINS SHOULD WEAKEN/BECOME MORE ILL-DEFINED WITH TIME. THOUGH WEAKENING FRONT SHOULD REMAIN A FOCUS FOR WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS...CLOUDS / PERSISTENT PRECIPITATION SHOULD LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT DESTABILIZATION. THIS COMBINED WITH THE FACT THAT STRONGER WIND FIELD SHOULD REMAIN WELL TO THE COOL SIDE OF FRONT SEEMS TO SUGGEST ONLY A VERY LIMITED / LOCALIZED PULSE SEVERE THREAT. THEREFORE...WILL NOT INTRODUCE SEVERE PROBABILITIES ATTM ACROSS THE OH / TN / MID MS VALLEY REGION. FURTHER NWWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS...WEAK DESTABILIZATION AND WIND FIELD EXHIBITING FAVORABLE VEERING/SHEAR COULD SUPPORT A LOW-END SEVERE THREAT ASSUMING STORMS COULD DEVELOP. ACROSS THIS REGION... MODELS DO INDICATE ISOLATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN WEAK WARM ADVECTION REGIME ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND INTO MN...AS WELL AS NEAR LEE TROUGH OVER ERY WY. HOWEVER...WEAK INSTABILITY AND LIKELIHOOD OF CAPPING ISSUES ACROSS THIS REGION COMBINED WITH LACK OF OBVIOUS LOW-LEVEL FORCING MECHANISM SUGGEST THAT ANY SEVERE THREAT WOULD REMAIN EXTREMELY ISOLATED. THEREFORE...WILL REFRAIN FROM INTRODUCING SEVERE PROBABILITY ACROSS THIS REGION AS WELL. ..GOSS.. 08/14/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 17 10:30:34 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 17 Aug 2005 05:30:34 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200508171148.j7HBm7EZ015301@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 151722 SWODY2 SPC AC 151721 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1221 PM CDT MON AUG 15 2005 VALID 161200Z - 171200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 N DVL 35 ESE DVL 10 WSW FAR 45 WNW AXN 25 E AXN 35 E STC 45 NW EAU 15 SSE EAU 20 NNW LSE 15 SE RST 15 NNE FRM 25 SSW ATY 30 NW MBG 30 SSW DIK 30 N GDV 60 N OLF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SW TUS 20 SE PRC 35 NNW EED 20 SE DAG 20 ENE PRB 40 E UKI 25 SE MHS 20 SSW 4LW 70 E 4LW 90 WNW OWY 30 S BOI 50 ENE BOI 55 WSW 27U 55 E S80 45 NE S80 40 W S06 20 SSW 63S 70 ENE BLI ...CONT... 20 WSW INL 40 W IWD 25 NW IMT 20 NNW OSC 30 NNE GRR 10 NW JVL 25 ESE FOD 60 WSW YKN 20 NE LBF 20 NNE GLD 35 E LAA 15 SW EHA 35 SSE DHT 35 WNW PVW 15 NW LBB 35 ENE LBB 30 E CDS 25 N FSI 35 NNE OKC 30 NE BVO 35 WNW SGF 10 SSE MTO 30 WSW CMH 25 N PIT 10 S ELM 10 N BGM 40 NNW MSV 35 NW EWR 15 SE NEL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE CAR 30 WSW HUL 45 SW 3B1 30 E EFK. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF NERN MT...ND/SD...MN...AND WRN WI... ...SYNOPSIS... BAND OF PREDOMINATELY ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NRN STATES ON TUESDAY WITH THE STRONGER IN A SERIES OF EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE TROUGHS BRINING A FRONTAL INTRUSION SEWD ACROSS THE ERN GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. THE TRAILING SEGMENT OF THIS FRONT WILL EXTEND WWD TO THE UPR MS VLY...AND NWWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS. HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT UPSTREAM IMPULSE WILL STRENGTHEN LEE TROUGHING AND ENHANCE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ASCENT ACROSS THE FRONTAL ZONE FROM THE CNTRL/NRN HIGH PLAINS TO MN. EXTENSIVE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE SRN STATES WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SINK SWD. RESIDUAL/DECAYING FRONTAL ZONE ON THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...WILL REMAIN A FOCUS FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION AMIDST RELATIVELY SLACK MID LEVEL FLOW. ...EXTREME NERN MT/DAKOTAS/MN AND A SMALL PART OF WRN WI... DESPITE SOMEWHAT LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN THROUGH MONDAY...A NARROW AXIS OF 60S F DEWPOINTS AND PERSISTENT WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER THE UPR MS VLY SHOULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODEST INSTABILITY FROM ERN SD ACROSS SRN MN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LATEST NAM AND ENSEMBLE RUN OF THE ETAKF BOTH FCST AN AXIS OF 1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE WILL DEVELOP BENEATH 30-40KT NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW ACROSS SRN MN BY AFTERNOON. FRONTAL CIRCULATION AND RELATIVELY WEAK CAP WILL SUPPORT TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THIS AREA WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND LAPSE RATES APPEAR TO SUGGEST ORGANIZED STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL. FARTHER NORTH AND WEST...FRONTAL ZONE WILL RETURN NWD ACROSS NWRN ND AND EXTREME NERN MT AS A WARM FRONT LATE TUESDAY. AS NEXT SHORT WAVE IMPULSE APPROACHES...INCREASING LIFT ACROSS THE FRONT SHOULD AID STORM INITIATION. STRONG DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEAR... ESPECIALLY AFTER DARK...SHOULD RESULT IN AN INCREASING THREAT OF ORGANIZED STORMS/SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS. STORM MERGERS AND STRENGTHENING MASS INFLOW ON THE NOSE OF LLJ ARE EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THE SEVERE THREAT INTO THE NIGHT ACROSS NRN ND. ...ERN WY TO NERN CO... INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THESE AREAS... COUPLED WITH DIURNAL HEATING...LEE-TROUGH CONVERGENCE...AND LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS...SHOULD ALL LEND SUPPORT FOR SCATTERED HIGH-BASED TSTM DEVELOPMENT BY AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE HAIL AND/OR HIGH WINDS GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 30-35KT. ANTICIPATED AREAL COVERAGE APPEARS LIMITED BY INSTABILITY AND FORCING. HOWEVER...PARTS OF HIGH PLAINS REGION MAY BE UPGRADED IN LATER OUTLOOKS AS SCENARIO BECOMES BETTER DEFINED. ...MID ATLANTIC... MODEST DESTABILIZATION WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS REGION GIVEN DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE AND DIURNAL HEATING. IN ADDITION TO SEA/BAY BREEZES...FEATURES AIDING TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE RESIDUAL FRONTAL ZONE STALLED ACROSS DELMARVA AREA...AND LEE TROUGHING SSWWD ALONG THE PIEDMONT. MID LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT MARGINAL FOR GREATER STORM ORGANIZATION BUT A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WLY FLOW OVER PRIOR DAYS IS POSSIBLE AS SHORT WAVE PASSES THE AREA TO THE NORTH. EXPECT AT LEAST A FEW MULTICELL STORM CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF STRONG DOWNBURSTS TO EVOLVE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. IF A MORE CONCENTRATED AREA OF STORM ACTIVITY CAN BE DELINEATED IN LATER FORECASTS...A SMALL SLGT RISK AREA MAY BE WARRANTED OVER PARTS OF VA/NC. ..CARBIN.. 08/15/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 17 16:29:15 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 17 Aug 2005 11:29:15 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200508171746.j7HHklqX009793@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 171744 SWODY2 SPC AC 171743 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1243 PM CDT WED AUG 17 2005 VALID 181200Z - 191200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MKG GRR 35 WNW FDY DAY LUK 40 SSE SDF BWG PAH CGI VIH 50 N SZL 55 ENE OMA FRM MKT MSP EAU CWA MTW MKG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE IPL EDW FAT TVL RNO WMC OWY SUN BTM HLN LWT MLS DIK 70 NE MOT ...CONT... 40 NNW BUF PSB MRB CHO LYH DAN RDU GSB HSE ...CONT... LRD COT SAT AUS SHV 35 ENE TXK FSM EMP BIE LNK OLU BUB BBW MCK EHA MAF 40 S P07. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS SERN MN/IA TO WRN OH/NRN KY... ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVE NRN STREAM FLOW PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW NOW TAKING SHAPE OVER SRN BC AND PACIFIC NW. THIS FEATURE IS PROGGED TO TURN EWD ACROSS SRN ALTA AND SRN SASK THROUGH PERIOD...WITH ASSOCIATED TROUGH SWD INTO N-CENTRAL ROCKIES. AS THIS GRADUALLY OCCURS...LEADING SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN VWP/PROFILER DATA AND MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER ERN WY -- IS EXPECTED TO EJECT EWD OVER UPPER MS VALLEY AND LM REGION. QUASISTATIONARY SFC FRONTAL ZONE -- NOW ANALYZED ACROSS NRN/ERN MT...SRN ND AND NRN MN -- IS EXPECTED TO BECOME COLD FRONT AS NWRN TROUGH/LOW APCH AREA...MOVING SEWD ACROSS NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND NRN MN. ATTACHED SFC LOW SHOULD MOVE EWD ACROSS NRN MN...WHILE MIDLEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVHD. WARM FRONT SHOULD LIFT NWD OVER PORTIONS IA/WI/IL/LM AND LOWER MI THROUGH PERIOD. ...MID MS VALLEY...SRN GREAT LAKES...LOWER OH VALLEY... STRONGEST DEEP-LAYER ASCENT IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR INVOF SFC LOW...AND ALONG AND N OF WARM FRONT OVER UPPER MIDWEST. HOWEVER...TIGHTEST FLOW GRADIENTS ALOFT AND STRONGEST DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY S OF SFC WARM FRONT ACROSS WARM SECTOR...FROM ERN IA ACROSS WRN IL BY AFTERNOON. HORIZONTAL DISPLACEMENT BETWEEN STRONGEST PROGGED LIFT AND STRONGEST BUOYANCY/SHEAR LENDS SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT LOCATION/COVERAGE OF CONVECTION..AND WHERE TO ASSIGN HIGHER PROBABILITIES WITHIN BROAD 15% ENVELOPE. HOWEVER...WEAK CAP IS EVIDENT IN MODIFIED ETA FCST SOUNDINGS...SUGGESTING ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING GUSTS, HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE. ALSO...OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM POSSIBLE MCS OVERNIGHT DAY-1 MAY MAKE PROFILES MORE FAVORABLE ON MESOSCALE AND OPTIMAL SEVERE THREAT AREA MORE PRECISELY DEFINED. GREATEST SUPERCELL POTENTIAL SHOULD BE INVOF WARM FRONT OR OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHERE SFC FLOW IS MOST STRONGLY BACKED...OPTIMALLY ENLARGING LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WHERE THERE STILL IS SUBSTANTIAL SFC-BASED INSTABILITY. MODIFIED MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW 0-1 KM SRH 200-300 J/KG NEAR WARM FRONT...AND A STILL-FAVORABLE 100-200 J/KG SWD TOWARD NERN MO/WRN IL DESPITE NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP-LAYER FLOW S OF WARM FRONT. WARM SECTOR EFFECTIVE SHEARS MAY REACH 45-50 KT. BUOYANCY WILL BE MAXIMIZED S OF WARM FRONT...AS VERY RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND SFC DIABATIC HEATING CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES 2000-3000 J/KG. STRONGEST DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL SHIFT EWD ACROSS IL/INDIANA DURING EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. AFTERNOON ACTIVITY MAY EVOLVE INTO EVENING/OVERNIGHT COMPLEX THAT WOULD MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS IL/WI/LM AND POSSIBLY LOWER MI BEFORE WEAKENING. DAMAGING GUSTS AND OCCASIONAL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE. ...UPPER MIDWEST TO WY... SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ALSO ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND BEHIND FCST SFC COLD FRONT...WITH ACTIVITY OVER ERN WY/SERN MT AIDED BY POSTFRONTAL UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE AND INCREASING THROUGHOUT DAY WITH APCH OF STRONG NWRN TROUGH...I.E. 50-60 KT OF 0-6 KM AND EFFECTIVE SHEARS PROGGED IN NERN WY. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE LIMITED IN THIS AREA...STEEPENING MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY YIELD ENOUGH BUOYANCY TO SUPPORT HAIL/WIND THREAT WITH STRONGER CELLS. ..EDWARDS.. 08/17/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 18 05:07:17 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 18 Aug 2005 00:07:17 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200508180624.j7I6OmOH014402@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 180622 SWODY2 SPC AC 180621 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0121 AM CDT THU AUG 18 2005 VALID 191200Z - 201200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSW EAR 20 SSE YKN 10 WNW RWF 45 NNE MSP 45 NNE EAU 10 NNW AUW 20 NE MKE 20 SW CGX 25 ENE UIN 35 N SZL 20 NW RSL 40 SSW EAR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 W SJT 30 N ABI 45 SE OKC 25 NNW FYV 45 NW POF 25 SW PAH 45 E MKL 30 SSW TUP 35 NW JAN 25 WNW LFK 15 WSW AUS 35 S JCT 10 W SJT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW CZZ 40 S BFL 60 N SAC 35 WNW SVE 65 SSE 4LW 40 SSE OWY 45 NNW EVW 50 S 81V 55 NE MBG 40 NNE FAR 35 E RRT ...CONT... 35 N BML 25 SSE LEB 20 SSW PSF 15 SW ABE 15 ESE BWI 10 NW WAL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM WI TO NERN KS... ...GREAT LAKES TO ERN PLAINS... STRONG HEIGHT FALLS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY AS MID-HIGH LEVEL FLOW INCREASE IN BASE OF DIGGING UPPER TROUGH DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY AFTER 21Z. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES THE IDEA OF TROPICAL MOISTURE SPREADING NWD ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS/MS VALLEY REGION IN WAKE OF DAY1 UPPER TROUGH. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG HEATING AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR SIGNIFICANT AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION FROM ERN KS INTO IA/IL...MLCAPE VALUES AOA 3000J/KG. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FAVOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT THROUGH EARLY EVENING BEFORE STRONG FORCING ACCELERATES STORM MERGERS AND EVENTUALLY MCS DEVELOPMENT. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD EAST AND SOUTHEAST INTO PORTIONS OF NRN MO/IL DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. DOWNSTREAM...THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OH VALLEY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. ONE NEGATIVE FOR THIS SCENARIO IS THE EXPECTED LARGE SCALE HEIGHT RISES AND THE LACK OF A SIGNIFICANT SOURCE FOR LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO SUSTAIN ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS. FOR THIS REASON LOW PROBABILITIES WILL SUFFICE AT THIS TIME. ..DARROW.. 08/18/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 18 15:52:43 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 18 Aug 2005 10:52:43 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200508181710.j7IHACTa023951@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 181707 SWODY2 SPC AC 181706 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1206 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2005 VALID 191200Z - 201200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW SYR 15 S PSB 10 SW EKN 10 SSW CRW 45 WNW EMP 35 SSE RSL 50 SSW HSI 30 S YKN 35 WNW RWF 35 NE STC 60 NNE EAU 25 SE MTW 35 NNW LAN 75 NNE MTC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW TPL 55 WNW LFK 25 SSE SHV 15 NW MLU 25 SW GLH 50 NE PBF 45 S UNO 25 SSW UMN 30 SW OKC 20 S LTS 50 ENE BGS 25 W SJT 40 NNE JCT 20 WSW TPL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N PBG 15 SE GFL 30 SW POU 15 WNW NEL 35 SSE NEL ...CONT... 25 SE SAN 30 N SBA 30 NW BFL 45 ESE BIH 30 NE TPH 35 WNW ELY 50 E MLD 25 SSW JAC 25 NW BZN 40 E HLN 20 W LWT 65 NE 4BQ 60 SE BIS 35 SE JMS 20 SSE GFK 80 N GFK. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID MO VALLEY EWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... AMPLIFIED YET PROGRESSIVE WAVE TRAIN ACROSS NRN TIER OF STATES IS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO AN ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER PERIOD FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. MORE SPECIFICALLY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY/WRN GREAT LAKES IS FORECAST TO LOSE AMPLITUDE AS IT PROGRESSES ENEWD FROM THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. MEANWHILE...VIGOROUS UPSTREAM SYSTEM /NOW OVER AB/SK/ WILL TRANSLATE SEWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES BY 20/12Z. WITHIN THIS LARGER-SCALE PATTERN...AN AXIS OF MODERATE TO STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW /I.E. 35-45 KTS AT 500 MB OVER THE OH VALLEY...INCREASING TO 60-70 KTS OVER THE NRN PLAINS/ WILL PERSIST FROM THE NRN PLAINS EWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...SURFACE CYCLONE ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD DISTURBANCE WILL DEVELOP FROM WRN LOWER MI NEWD INTO SWRN QC WITH ATTENDANT WARM FRONT ALSO LIFTING NEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL/UPPER OH VALLEY EWD ACROSS WRN/CNTRL NY/PA. A TRAILING...WEAK BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY EXTEND WWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY TO SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. PRIMARY FEATURE...HOWEVER...WILL BE STRONG COLD FRONT WHICH WILL PUSH SEWD THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS FRIDAY...AND INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES...UPPER MIDWEST AND CNTRL PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT. ...UPPER OH VALLEY EWD INTO WRN NY/PA... CLUSTERS OF TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING INITIALLY WITHIN LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME ALONG/N OF RETREATING WARM FRONT FROM LOWER MI SWD ACROSS OH AND PERHAPS ERN KY/WV. FORCING FOR ASCENT ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY COUPLED WITH INFLUX OF MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS ALONG WSWLY LLJ IS EXPECTED TO SUSTAIN THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS THE UPPER OH VALLEY INTO WRN NY/PA. WHILE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS FORECAST TO DECREASE IN WAKE OF WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE...RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND TRAILING...WEAK CONFLUENCE ZONE MAY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF IND/OH. GIVEN ANTICIPATED MODERATE INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS AND/OR BOWING STRUCTURES IN BOTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTIVE REGIMES. THOUGH A TORNADO OR TWO IS POSSIBLE...IT APPEARS THAT DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS. ...MID MO VALLEY/UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE LOWER/MID OH VALLEY... POTENTIALLY MORE EXPLOSIVE SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER DISCUSSION AREA IN ADVANCE OF STRONG MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 60-70 KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK. MOIST BOUNDARY-LAYER CONDITIONS /DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW-MID 70S/ IN CONJUNCTION WITH STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES INCREASING TO AOA 3000-3500 J/KG. MOREOVER...VERTICAL SHEAR WILL CONCURRENTLY INCREASE WITH APPROACH OF MID-LEVEL SPEED MAXIMUM WITH 40-50 KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR FORECAST ACROSS INSTABILITY AXIS DURING TIME OF PEAK HEATING. THIS COMBINATION OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT RAPID SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON ALONG COLD FRONT FROM SRN MN ACROSS IA INTO ERN NEB. INITIALLY...SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE LIKELY. WITH TIME...UPSCALE GROWTH INTO ONE OR MORE MCS/S WILL OCCUR WITH LARGE-SCALE ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTING EMBEDDED BOW ECHOES WITH POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND SWATHS SPREADING EWD ACROSS THE LOWER AND PERHAPS MID OH VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT. ..MEAD.. 08/18/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 19 04:41:46 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 18 Aug 2005 23:41:46 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200508190559.j7J5xD78023262@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 190556 SWODY2 SPC AC 190555 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1255 AM CDT FRI AUG 19 2005 VALID 201200Z - 211200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 E LIC GLD EMP FYV FSM OKC 20 ENE CAO LHX 10 E LIC. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WNW SYR ELM MGW 5I3 10 SW CKV BLV 10 ENE MTO AZO TVC 35 E PLN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CZZ 15 WNW PMD BFL 15 NNE FAT 45 SE RBL 35 ENE 4BK 40 ESE SLE RDM 10 SSE LOL TPH MLF EVW 45 N DGW LBF BIE LWD 20 SSE CID LNR 30 NNE VOK 45 WSW HIB 15 NNW INL ...CONT... 10 E GLS LFK 35 N ACT SJT 40 ESE P07. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SATURDAY/SATURDAY EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SATURDAY AFTN AND EVE ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS.... MODELS SUGGEST SOME PHASING/INTERACTION OF SPLIT BELTS OF POLAR WESTERLIES AND BELT OF HIGH-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES WILL OCCUR TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE U.S...FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. BY 12Z SATURDAY...A CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO BEGIN DEVELOPING WITHIN LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER WESTERN ONTARIO AND THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...BEFORE CONTINUING EASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY 12Z SUNDAY. IN RESPONSE TO THIS SYSTEM...SUBTROPICAL RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST STATES IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN. HOWEVER...RIDGING WILL AT LEAST TEMPORARILY STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND ROCKIES...IN WAKE OF LEAD SHORT WAVE...AND AHEAD OF ANOTHER... NOW DIGGING OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. ...OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES... MID-LEVEL NORTHERN BRANCH JET CORE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP EAST OF UPPER TROUGH AXIS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH STRONGEST HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO PRIMARY SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WELL NORTH OF THE CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER...NEAR JAMES BAY...WITH MAIN SURFACE FRONT NOT PROGGED INTO THE LOWER LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT. BOTH LATEST NAM AND GFS SUGGEST FORCING WITH LOWER AMPLITUDE SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH...JUST AHEAD AND TO THE SOUTHEAST OF MAIN NORTHERN BRANCH IMPULSE...WILL PROVIDE FORCING FOR VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BY MID DAY SATURDAY FROM PARTS OF MICHIGAN INTO INDIANA AND OHIO. MOISTURE RETURN IN WARM SECTOR FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THIS REGION IS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH HEATING...AND CAPE AT LEAST IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG APPEARS LIKELY. ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS OF STORMS APPEARS POSSIBLE...EMBEDDED WITHIN 30+ KT MEAN WESTERLY FLOW REGIME...WHICH WILL ENHANCE STORM MOTION AND POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY BY EARLY SATURDAY EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING. ...SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS... WITH BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINING SUFFICIENTLY MOIST AND POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE...MID-LEVEL COOLING ON WEST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN WAKE OF UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN CAP SUFFICIENTLY FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THERMAL RIDGE AXIS FROM EASTERN COLORADO THROUGH SOUTHERN KANSAS/NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...JUST AHEAD OF SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE...IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE FOCUS FOR ACTIVITY. WHILE THIS MAY OCCUR IN WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT TO THE SOUTH OF STRONGER WESTERLIES...VERY WARM DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT FOR A FEW DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS. SOME HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...BEFORE ACTIVITY WEAKENS SATURDAY EVENING. ..KERR.. 08/19/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 19 15:59:25 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 19 Aug 2005 10:59:25 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200508191716.j7JHGqVV023559@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 191714 SWODY2 SPC AC 191713 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1213 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2005 VALID 201200Z - 211200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NW MSS 25 N CXY 25 NNW SSU 25 S BWG 25 WSW DYR 15 SW FSM 30 E CSM 30 S DHT 20 W CAO 20 SSW LHX 25 N LAA 45 ENE DDC 10 S EMP 30 WSW PIA 15 ENE ANJ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSW RAL 25 NW BFL 40 NNE FAT 55 ESE TVL 30 N TPH 45 E TPH 45 NW P38 55 SE ELY 20 S EVW 45 SE RWL 55 NW CDR 30 NNW BUB 30 SE YKN 25 NW OTG 30 W AXN 15 SSW TVF 55 W RRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE CRP 25 NNE VCT 35 NW HOU 55 ENE LFK 30 NNE SHV 35 SSE PRX 30 SSW FTW 40 NNE JCT 25 WNW DRT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL/ERN GREAT LAKES SWWD INTO THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... AMPLIFIED LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY 2 PERIOD OWING TO STRONG MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW TRANSLATING EWD ACROSS ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES...AND A BUILDING RIDGE IN THE W. WITHIN THIS REGIME...A BELT OF RATHER STRONG...CYCLONIC...MID AND HIGH-LEVEL WINDS WILL DEVELOP FROM THE NRN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...OH VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY NRN APPALACHIANS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...PRIMARY SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL DEVELOP GENERALLY EWD ACROSS NERN ONTARIO...PRIOR TO OCCLUDING LATE IN THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE...A SECONDARY SURFACE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO TRACK RAPIDLY NEWD FROM ERN IA TO NEAR LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO BY SATURDAY EVENING...WHILE ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT SURGES SEWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY. ...GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY... CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT THE ONSET OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ALONG COLD FRONT OVER PORTIONS OF SRN WI/IL...PERHAPS SWWD INTO MO. DIABATIC HEATING COUPLED WITH MOIST BOUNDARY-LAYER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY /MLCAPES OF 1500-3000 J/KG/ ACROSS INFLOW AIR MASS OVER THE OH VALLEY AND THE SRN GREAT LAKES. THIS INSTABILITY IN CONJUNCTION WITH LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF UPPER LOW SHOULD SUPPORT STORM INTENSIFICATION/DEVELOPMENT EWD ACROSS THE MID/UPPER OH VALLEY AND SRN GREAT LAKES SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRONG...DEEP-LAYER WLY SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT LINE SEGMENTS AND LEWP/BOWING STRUCTURES AS THE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE MODE. HOWEVER...LOCALLY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND RESULTING INCREASE IN HODOGRAPH CURVATURE FORECAST INVOF MIGRATORY SURFACE LOW SUGGEST AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF A FEW TORNADOES ACROSS SRN LOWER MI/NRN IND AND OH. OTHERWISE...EXPECT THAT DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS. THOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD TEND TO DIMINISH WITH THE ONSET OF DIABATIC COOLING...STRONGLY FORCED STORMS ALONG COLD FRONT MAY POSE A DAMAGING WIND THREAT AS FAR E AS CNTRL NY/PA SATURDAY NIGHT. ...MID MS VALLEY WWD INTO PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS... DESPITE VERTICAL SHEAR DECREASING WSWWD ALONG FRONTAL ZONE...ANTICIPATED STRONG HEATING AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DEEPLY-MIXED CBL AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. SOME POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A SUPERCELL OR TWO OVER SERN CO/FAR NERN NM/SWRN KS WHERE MORE ELY LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL EFFECTIVELY ENHANCE DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR. ..MEAD.. 08/19/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 20 04:37:37 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 19 Aug 2005 23:37:37 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200508200555.j7K5t08W030835@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 200553 SWODY2 SPC AC 200552 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1252 AM CDT SAT AUG 20 2005 VALID 211200Z - 221200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CZZ RAL TPH U31 WMC 10 SE MHS MFR DLS GEG 10 SE FCA GTF BIL REJ BUB BIE TOP 40 NNW SGF CGI MVN 10 WSW SPI BMI FWA 35 ESE DTW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 WSW COT 10 SE AUS ACT ABI BGS FST 65 SW MRF. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... PHASING OF NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN BRANCH OF POLAR WESTERLIES AND HIGH-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES IS UNDERWAY NEAR THE CENTRAL CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER. CLOSED LOW HAS EVOLVED WITHIN LARGE UPPER TROUGH...WHICH WILL PROGRESS THROUGH MUCH OF ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY EARLY SUNDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE AMPLIFICATION AND SLOW SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESSION OF UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY...SUPPRESSING SUBTROPICAL RIDGING EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SIGNIFICANT COOLING/DRYING THROUGH ALL BUT THE SOUTH ATLANTIC AND GULF COAST STATES BY 12Z MONDAY. IN WAKE OF EASTERN TROUGH...SPLIT HIGH-LEVEL FLOW REGIME WILL PREVAIL FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. SHORT WAVE RIDGE...DEVELOPING IN NORTHERN STREAM OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TODAY...WILL BEGIN TO DAMPEN...AS NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO MIGRATE INLAND OFF THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC. MEANWHILE...WEAKER SOUTHERN STREAM WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ZONAL...EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. ...NORTHEAST... MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST MID-LEVEL WIND SHIFT/ASSOCIATED DRYING WILL OVERSPREAD MID AND NORTH ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS EARLY IN THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...STRONGER LOW-LEVEL COOLING IS NOT PROGGED SOUTHEAST OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION UNTIL LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...IN ASSOCIATION WITH DIGGING SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN BROADER SCALE UPPER TROUGH. THUS...SUBSTANTIAL HEATING SEEMS LIKELY TO OCCUR IN THE LEE OF APPALACHIANS... ALONG AN AXIS FROM CENTRAL/EASTERN MARYLAND INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WITH WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW FORECAST TO MAINTAIN MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER NEAR COASTAL AREAS...THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION FROM THE DELMARVA PENINSULA THROUGH NEW JERSEY INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MIXED LAYER CAPE AS HIGH AS 2000+ J/KG APPEARS POSSIBLE BY PEAK HEATING...WHICH MAY PROVIDE PRIMARY FORCING FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK. WITH AT LEAST WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS POSSIBLE...MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR SHORT-LIVED UPDRAFT ROTATION AND SOME THREAT OF GUSTY WINDS/HAIL IN STRONGEST CELLS. OTHER SCATTERED STORMS WITH HAIL/GUSTY WINDS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ALONG LEADING EDGE OF COLD CORE OF UPPER TROUGH...AS IT SPREADS EAST OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH FAIRLY RAPIDLY EARLY SUNDAY EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ...NORTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE SOUTH/WEST OF FRONTAL ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH EASTERN TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A FOCUS FOR WEAK TO MODERATE DESTABILIZATION ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING/SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA/NORTHEAST COLORADO. AIDED BY WEAK SUBTROPICAL STREAM IMPULSE...SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THOUGH SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE WEAK...WARM DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER MAY CONTRIBUTE TO A FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT FOR AN ISOLATED DOWNBURST OR TWO. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. AS LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION STRENGTHENS WITH DEVELOPMENT OF LOW-LEVEL JET SUNDAY EVENING...STORMS COULD BE SLOW TO DIMINISH. BUT...STABILIZATION OF BOUNDARY LAYER WITH LOSS OF HEATING IS EXPECTED TO END LIMITED SEVERE THREAT DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. ...SOUTHERN TIER STATES... PERTURBATIONS EMBEDDED WITHIN MOIST PLUME ON SOUTHERN FRINGE OF SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES...FROM THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU INTO BASE OF EASTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF STORMS SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. SUPPORTED PRIMARILY BY FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENTS...STRONGEST STORMS MAY PRODUCE SOME HAIL OR STRONG WIND GUSTS...BUT THESE EVENTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY MINOR OR HIGHLY LOCALIZED. ..KERR.. 08/20/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 20 16:15:33 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 20 Aug 2005 11:15:33 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200508201732.j7KHWtC3013193@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 201730 SWODY2 SPC AC 201728 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1228 PM CDT SAT AUG 20 2005 VALID 211200Z - 221200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW MFE 35 NNW VCT 25 NW AUS 40 ESE SJT 50 E FST 25 SW FST 65 SW MRF ...CONT... 40 SE YUM 60 WSW PRC 25 W CDC 30 NNW ELY WMC 10 SE MHS MFR DLS GEG 10 SE FCA GTF BIL 45 E 81V BUB BIE 10 ESE TOP 35 WNW TBN 35 NW CGI 40 ENE EVV 40 N LEX 45 SSW CMH 35 SW CAK 40 NE CLE. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... INTENSE...MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS QUEBEC SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT WITH AMPLIFICATION OF LARGER-SCALE TROUGH FROM ERN CANADA SWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...OH VALLEY AND NERN STATES. THIS WILL SUPPORT SWD DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE TO STRONG MID TO HIGH-LEVEL WIND FIELDS ACROSS THE UPPER OH VALLEY...NEW ENGLAND AND MID ATLANTIC COAST. IN THE W...NRN EXTENSION OF DOMINANT RIDGE WILL WEAKEN WITH EWD PROGRESSION OF ERN PACIFIC TROUGH INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALBERTA. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...INITIAL FRONTAL SURGE WILL PUSH EWD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND AND THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY WITH TRAILING PORTION OF BOUNDARY SLOWLY SETTLING SWD ACROSS THE MID SOUTH AND SRN PLAINS. MEANWHILE...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A CHANNELED VORTICITY MAXIMUM DIVING SEWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH SEWD INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY BY EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT. ...ERN GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND AND SWD THROUGH CHESAPEAKE BAY... STRONGLY FORCED CONVECTIVE BAND MAY WELL BE IN PROGRESS AT THE ONSET OF THE FORECAST ALONG INITIAL COLD FRONT FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY/WRN NEW ENGLAND SWD TOWARD THE DELMARVA. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE STRONGEST DESTABILIZATION WITHIN PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS WILL OCCUR FROM SRN NEW ENGLAND SWD ACROSS NJ INTO CHESAPEAKE BAY WHERE MLCAPES MAY APPROACH 1000-1500 J/KG. HOWEVER...CLOSER INSPECTION OF FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATES A RATHER WARM LAYER IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER WHICH SHOULD TEND TO DILUTE PARCEL BUOYANCY/UPDRAFT STRENGTH. NONETHELESS...PRESENCE OF MODERATE TO STRONG...LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELDS ACROSS FRONTAL ZONE SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS /BOWING SEGMENTS/ CAPABLE OF PRIMARILY DAMAGING WINDS. ADDITIONAL CLUSTERS OF LOW-TOPPED STORMS MAY FORM ALONG SECONDARY COLD FRONT OVER SWRN ONTARIO SUNDAY AFTERNOON ALONG LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER LOW TO MID-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION. SHOULD THIS ACTIVITY REACH THE ERN SHORES OF LAKE ONTARIO PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF DIABATIC COOLING SUNDAY EVENING...SOME POTENTIAL WOULD EXIST FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS. ...CAROLINAS WWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY... DAYTIME HEATING COUPLED WITH A VERY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS /I.E. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S/ ARE EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO A MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT S OF FRONT WITH MLCAPES OF 2000-3500 J/KG. WHILE BOTH VERTICAL SHEAR AND LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN RATHER WEAK ACROSS REGION...DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT A FEW VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS. ...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE SRN PLAINS... CLUSTERS OF STRONG TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG WWD EXTENSION OF SYNOPTIC FRONT OVER OK INTO NRN TX...AS WELL AS IN POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE REGIME NWD ACROSS ERN CO/WRN KS INTO SWRN NEB. WHILE BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE WILL DECREASE WITH NWD EXTENT...COMPARATIVELY STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG...TO AS HIGH AS 2000-3000 J/KG ALONG/S OF FRONT OVER OK/TX. HERE TOO...VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK WHICH SHOULD LIMIT DEGREE OF STORM ORGANIZATION. STILL...A FEW OF THE MORE INTENSE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ..MEAD.. 08/20/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 21 04:36:28 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 20 Aug 2005 23:36:28 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200508210553.j7L5rmOr003691@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 210552 SWODY2 SPC AC 210551 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1251 AM CDT SUN AUG 21 2005 VALID 221200Z - 231200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 ESE YUM IGM DRA RNO SVE 4LW PDT 30 N 63S ...CONT... 70 NE ISN 10 ESE Y22 35 ESE GRI TOP TBN 10 SE POF MKL 10 E MSL RMG AVL HKY 15 NE ORF ...CONT... 20 S DRT AUS ACT ABI FST 80 WNW MRF. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ALTHOUGH DISCREPANCIES EXIST AMONG MODELS/MODEL RUNS WITH REGARD TO EVOLUTION OF SMALLER SCALE FEATURES...LATEST NAM/GFS AND SHORT-RANGE ENSEMBLE FORECASTS SUGGEST AMPLIFIED WAVES WITHIN SPLIT BELTS OF POLAR WESTERLIES WILL REMAIN SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. LEAD TROUGH...WITH EMBEDDED CLOSED LOW...WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD NORTH ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS MONDAY. BROADER-SCALE UPSTREAM TROUGH IS STILL IN THE PROCESS OF EVOLVING...IN ASSOCIATION WITH NORTHEAST PACIFIC SHORT WAVE MIGRATING INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES...AND ANOTHER DIGGING STRONGLY OUT OF ALASKA. LATTER FEATURE IS PROGGED TO DIG ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA DURING THE DAY MONDAY...INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST STATES BY EARLY TUESDAY...AS FORMER LIFTS INTO NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA. IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPMENTS IN MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES... SUBTROPICAL RIDGING ACROSS THE U.S. WILL CONTINUE TO BE SUPPRESSED. SUBSTANTIAL COOLING/DRYING IN LOWER-LEVELS EAST OF THE ROCKIES WILL CONFINE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO SOUTH ATLANTIC/GULF COASTAL AREAS AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. IT WILL REMAIN WARM ACROSS THE WEST...BUT COOLING AT MID-LEVELS IS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE GREAT BASIN...AND THE ROCKIES. ...MONTANA... MODELS SUGGEST EVOLVING UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE CYCLONE IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES MONDAY...WITH LOW DEEPENING AND MIGRATING INTO EASTERN MONTANA MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY BECOME A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS CENTRAL MONTANA...NEAR/SHORTLY AFTER PEAK HEATING. ALTHOUGH LAPSE RATES SHOULD BECOME RATHER STEEP...LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SEEMS LIKELY TO MINIMIZE MAGNITUDE OF DESTABILIZATION. COUPLED WITH WEAK SHEAR PROFILES...SOUTH OF STRONGER BELT OF FLOW TO THE NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER...RISK OF SEVERE STORMS APPEARS SMALL AT THE PRESENT TIME. ...SOUTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THROUGH GULF COAST STATES... SEASONABLY MOIST/UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL PERSIST...AND WEAK IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN FLATTENING SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES SHOULD AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MONDAY. FORCING MAY BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF ONE OR MORE STORM CLUSTERS...WHICH COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG GUSTY WINDS...DESPITE PRESENCE OF WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER...TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH REGARD TO THE PROGRESSION OF THESE FEATURES TO CONFIDENTLY DELINEATE LOW PROBABILITY SEVERE THREAT AREA. ..KERR.. 08/21/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 21 15:27:25 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 21 Aug 2005 10:27:25 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200508211644.j7LGihOr021818@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 211638 SWODY2 SPC AC 211637 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1137 AM CDT SUN AUG 21 2005 VALID 221200Z - 231200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 SSW GBN 40 ENE PHX 20 NE FLG 35 SE SGU 65 N DRA RNO SVE 4LW PDT 30 N 63S ...CONT... 70 NE ISN 10 ESE Y22 35 ESE GRI TOP TBN 10 SE POF MKL 25 NNE MSL 20 W CHA 20 NW AVL HKY 15 NE ORF ...CONT... 25 E MFE 30 WNW VCT 20 ENE TPL ABI FST 75 W MRF. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... AMPLIFICATION OF LARGE-SCALE PATTERN IS FORECAST OVER THE CONUS AND SRN CANADA THROUGH THE DAY 2 PERIOD WITH PRIMARY FEATURES BEING SLOW-MOVING UPPER LOW OVER SERN CANADA AND THE NERN STATES...AND EVOLVING UPPER TROUGH OVER WRN CANADA INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN W. BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS...SMALLER-SCALE CIRCULATIONS/SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CURRENTLY OVER CO AND THE NRN TX PNHDL WILL PROGRESSIVELY WEAKEN OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT WITHIN BASE OF SW-NE ORIENTED RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS TO JAMES BAY. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...QUASI-STATIONARY SYNOPTIC FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE NC COAST ACROSS THE SERN STATES...LOWER MS VALLEY AND THEN NWWD THROUGH THE RED RIVER VALLEY TO DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER CNTRL MT. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH EVOLVING WRN CANADA/U.S. TROUGH WILL PUSH SEWD THROUGH THE CANADIAN ROCKIES...PACIFIC NW AND INTO THE NRN ROCKIES DURING THE PERIOD. ...KS/OK/N TX... A MOIST BOUNDARY-LAYER CHARACTERIZED BY DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WILL PERSIST INVOF AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL ZONE. WHEN COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND MODESTLY STEEP LOW- TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AFTERNOON AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF 1500-2500 J/KG. A RELATIVELY WEAK CAP ALONG WITH SOME LARGE-SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKENING UPPER SYSTEMS OVER KS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY INVOF FRONTAL ZONE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WHILE OVERALL MAGNITUDE OF TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELDS WILL REMAIN MODEST TO WEAK...FORECAST HODOGRAPHS INDICATE STRONG VEERING WITH HEIGHT THROUGH THE LOWEST 3 KM AGL WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEARS APPROACHING 30-35 KTS. GIVEN THIS COMBINATION OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. STORMS SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN MONDAY NIGHT AS BOUNDARY-LAYER COOLS AND STABILIZES. HOWEVER...SHOULD SEWD-MOVING CLUSTERS OF STORMS ORGANIZE A COLD POOL...SOME POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS MAY PERSIST INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS WITH THREAT POSSIBLY EXTENDING SWD INTO N TX. ...SERN STATES... OTHER CLUSTERS OF LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS MAY ALSO OCCUR ALONG FRONTAL ZONE OVER PORTIONS OF AL...GA AND SC. HERE...A VERY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS /I.E. DEWPOINTS OF 70-75 F/ COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY /MLCAPES OF 2000-3500 J/KG/. MOREOVER...ELY LOW-LEVEL WINDS ON IMMEDIATE COOL SIDE OF BOUNDARY BENEATH VERY SRN FRINGE OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH NERN U.S. TROUGH WILL RESULT IN MARGINALLY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR ACROSS NRN EXTENT OF INSTABILITY AXIS. ..MEAD.. 08/21/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 22 04:35:15 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 21 Aug 2005 23:35:15 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200508220552.j7M5qVRA013879@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 220550 SWODY2 SPC AC 220549 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1249 AM CDT MON AUG 22 2005 VALID 231200Z - 241200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DRT AUS 10 E ACT MWL BGS FST 45 WSW MRF ...CONT... IPL 50 ESE DAG DRA LOL 4LW BNO LWS 4OM 40 NNW 4OM ...CONT... 65 N DVL 25 NNW ATY FSD 20 SE OMA 10 N COU BWG 10 SSE BLF 15 ENE WAL. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... IN RESPONSE TO AMPLIFICATION IN SOUTHERN BRANCH OF POLAR JET...A LESS PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW PATTERN CONTINUES TO EVOLVE OVER THE U.S. AND MUCH OF CANADA. ONE CLOSED LOW HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED WITHIN LARGE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS QUEBEC/ONTARIO AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. EASTWARD MIGRATION OF THIS SYSTEM WILL SLOW BY TUESDAY ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC COAST...AS ANOTHER CLOSED LOW EVOLVES IN LARGE UPSTREAM TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE CANADIAN/NORTHERN U.S. ROCKIES. SUPPRESSION OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS PERIOD EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS...AS FAR SOUTH AS THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COASTAL STATES. HOWEVER...AS LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH IN SUBTROPICAL STREAM LIFTS OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS...UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY BUILD NORTHWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ...HIGH PLAINS... SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING TODAY ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN MONTANA IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTHWARD AND WEAKEN ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA TUESDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...MODELS SUGGEST NEW LOW WILL FORM IN PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHEAST MONTANA BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THIS IS NORTH OF SURFACE FRONT EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...FROM THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE REGION THROUGH THE RED RIVER VALLEY...AND LACK OF MORE SIGNIFICANT NORTHWARD MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE ONE FACTOR LIMITING SEVERE THREAT THIS FORECAST PERIOD. ADDITIONALLY...MID/UPPER FLOW ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS...SOUTH/EAST OF DIGGING TROUGH IN POLAR WESTERLIES...IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK AND SOUTHERLY THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY EVENING. DESPITE LIMITING FACTORS...VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND AN ISOLATED DOWNBURST OR TWO...BEFORE WEAKENING DURING THE EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. FARTHER SOUTH...STRONGER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SUBTROPICAL IMPULSE MAY NOT OVERSPREAD PARTS OF EASTERN COLORADO/WESTERN NEBRASKA AND KANSAS UNTIL AFTER DARK. HOWEVER...MODELS SUGGEST A BIT MORE PRONOUNCED VEERING WITH HEIGHT IN LOWER TO MID LEVELS DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS ACROSS THIS REGION...WHERE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN MAY CONTRIBUTE TO MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 2000 TO 3000 J/KG. AN ISOLATED SHORT-LIVED SUPERCELL OR TWO APPEARS POSSIBLE ...BUT SEVERE THREAT MAY DIMINISH FAIRLY QUICKLY DURING THE EVENING AS BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS/STABILIZES. ...SOUTHEAST STATES... AS FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES WEAKENS...MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP TUESDAY. IT IS STILL UNCERTAIN AS TO WHETHER A SHORT WAVE ROTATING INTO BASE OF LARGER-SCALE EASTERN TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO FORCING FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. HOWEVER...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY APPEARS LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO HEATING OF WEAKLY CAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER. THOUGH LOW/MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...VEERING WITH HEIGHT BENEATH MODERATE WESTERLY HIGH-LEVEL FLOW MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR AT LEAST BRIEF UPDRAFT ROTATION IN STRONGEST CELLS. IF THIS OCCURS...POTENTIAL FOR HAIL/GUSTY WINDS WILL BE ENHANCED. ..KERR.. 08/22/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 22 16:13:49 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 22 Aug 2005 11:13:49 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200508221731.j7MHVD81030941@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 221728 SWODY2 SPC AC 221727 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1227 PM CDT MON AUG 22 2005 VALID 231200Z - 241200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NNW DVL 30 SE MBG 35 S 9V9 15 WNW OFK 10 WSW FNB 35 W COU 35 N BWG 20 ESE BKW 20 ESE SBY ...CONT... 65 W COT 30 SW AUS 25 WNW TPL 30 WSW MWL 55 ENE BGS FST 45 WSW MRF ...CONT... IPL 60 WNW EED 30 SW TPH 35 SE LOL 45 WNW OWY 60 NE BOI 20 ESE LWS 35 NE EPH 40 NNW 4OM. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...HIGH PLAINS... WARM ADVECTION REGIME WILL DOMINATE THE HIGH PLAINS DURING THE DAY2 PERIOD AS LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS REMAINS UPSTREAM FROM THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT BASIN. DESPITE WEAK FLOW ALOFT...VEERING PROFILES WITH HEIGHT AND STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN SHEAR PROFILES MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF ROTATING STORMS. ASIDE FROM THE FAIRLY STRONG FRONTAL SURGE INTO MT LATE IN THE PERIOD...DOWNSTREAM SFC RIDGE WILL FORCE ELY COMPONENT ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS MAINTAINING LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE ZONE IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION EXPECTED TO AID LONGEVITY OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THE EVENING. A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS HOWEVER EXPECTED AREAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY DOES NOT WARRANT AN ORGANIZED SEVERE OUTLOOK AT THIS TIME. ...SERN U.S... LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN REGARDS TO A FAIRLY ACTIVE CONVECTIVE DAY ACROSS THE SERN U.S. DURING THE DAY2 PERIOD. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD EVOLVE WITHIN BASE OF ERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH WHERE SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 15-20KT...JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO ENSURE PULSE-MULTICELL UPDRAFTS ARE ABLE TO MOVE/PROPAGATE IN A SEWD FASHION. WITH TSTMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MID DAY...LAPSE RATES MAY STRUGGLE TO STEEPEN...THUS INSTABILITY SHOULD BE OVERTURNED QUICKLY AND REMAIN SOMEWHAT MARGINAL. THIS WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL AND LOW PROBABILITIES FOR WET MICROBURSTS WILL SUFFICE AT THIS TIME. ..DARROW.. 08/22/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 23 04:43:58 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 22 Aug 2005 23:43:58 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200508230601.j7N61DQC007041@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 230558 SWODY2 SPC AC 230557 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1257 AM CDT TUE AUG 23 2005 VALID 241200Z - 251200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MCK HSI BIE MKC JLN BVO P28 45 W HLC MCK. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 NNW GFK GFK ABR PIR REJ MLS 70 NW ISN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WSW CZZ RAL 10 NE DAG P38 10 E ENV 15 SW PIH 15 SW PUW 35 NNW GEG 25 N 63S ...CONT... 40 E RRT 10 W AXN 10 SE FRM COU 10 S TBN POF BNA 10 SE AND CAE FLO 35 ESE ECG ...CONT... DRT TPL FTW 10 WNW CDS PVW HOB 45 SE ELP. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS WED/WED EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.... AMPLIFIED SOUTHERN BRANCH OF POLAR JET WILL PERSIST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE U.S. THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. PROGRESSIVENESS OF EMBEDDED PERTURBATIONS...INCLUDING CLOSED LOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC COAST...AND ANOTHER EVOLVING CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...REMAINS A SOURCE OF CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY. EASTERN LOW NOW APPEARS TO BE GENERALLY CUT-OFF...BUT BY WEDNESDAY...LATEST NAM/GFS AND ENSEMBLES SUGGEST THAT THIS FEATURE...AND TRAILING TROUGH AXIS...WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO BE FORCED EAST OF ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS. UPSTREAM LOW IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DEVELOP NORTHEASTWARD INTO SASKATCHEWAN...WITH A COUPLE OF IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND ITS SOUTHERN/EASTERN PERIPHERY...ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL ROCKIES AND NORTHERN U.S. PLAINS. THIS WILL OCCUR AS ANOTHER TROUGH DIGS TOWARD THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. FARTHER SOUTH...MODELS SUGGEST SUBTROPICAL RIDGING...CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN/CENTRAL GULF STATES...WILL BEGIN TO EXPAND ONCE AGAIN. SERIES OF WAVES ROTATING AROUND ITS PERIPHERY LIKELY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...AND THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ...NORTHERN PLAINS... ALTHOUGH SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL LINGER OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS INTO WEDNESDAY...MOIST EAST SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME IS ALREADY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WHERE DEW POINTS ARE NOW NEAR 70F. THIS MOISTURE SEEMS MORE THAN LIKELY TO ADVECT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AS SOUTHERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS EAST OF LEE SURFACE TROUGH. PRIMARY SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...TRAILING COLD FRONT MAY BECOME A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BY PEAK HEATING AS IT SURGES ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MERGE WITH PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS...ALONG WHICH STRONG HEATING OF BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG. STRENGTH OF CAPPING ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE IS A CONCERN...PARTICULARLY TO THE SOUTH/EAST OF THERMAL LOW FORMING OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER...STRONGLY DIFLUENT AND DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW FIELD OVERSPREADING NORTH DAKOTA BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO MID-LEVEL UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION...WEAKENING CAP AND SUPPORTING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. SHEAR WILL BE MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS IN INITIAL ACTIVITY. BUT...CONVECTIVE CLUSTER IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE IN ENVIRONMENT WHERE DRY MID-LEVELS WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SOUNDINGS SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS. SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE/SLOWLY DEVELOP SOUTHWARD WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS...BEFORE STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER WEAKENS STORMS OVERNIGHT. ...CENTRAL PLAINS... MODELS SUGGEST CAPPING IN WAKE OF MID-LEVEL IMPULSE ASSOCIATED WITH SUBTROPICAL STREAM MAY BE SLOW TO STRENGTHEN OVER CENTRAL KANSAS WEDNESDAY. THIS IS WHERE SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO FOCUS WARM ADVECTION ALONG/NORTH OF LINGERING SURFACE FRONT. VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH DEW POINTS AROUND 70F WILL BECOME MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE BY PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING... AND CAPE IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG APPEARS POSSIBLE. THOUGH NOT STRONG...WESTERLY COMPONENT TO MID-LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS...WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS...POSSIBLY ISOLATED TORNADOES. ENTRANCE REGION OF INCREASINGLY ANTICYCLONIC HIGH-LEVEL JET STREAK MAY SUPPORT EVOLUTION OF LARGE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD EAST NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE MISSOURI VALLEY...AND MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG GUSTY WINDS ALONG OUTFLOWS...BEFORE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN BECOMES PRIMARY THREAT OVERNIGHT. ...GULF STATES... VERY MOIST AIR MASS WILL PERSIST SOUTH OF SURFACE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH EASTERN TROUGH. SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR WITH DAYTIME HEATING...AND THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES BY PEAK HEATING MAY BECOME FAVORABLE FOR HIGHLY LOCALIZED DOWNBURSTS IN STRONGER...BUT GENERALLY SHORT-LIVED CELLS. ..KERR.. 08/23/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 23 16:28:34 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 23 Aug 2005 11:28:34 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200508231747.j7NHkPrY016350@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 231743 SWODY2 SPC AC 231742 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1242 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2005 VALID 241200Z - 251200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE BVO 30 SW END 40 SSW GAG 65 SSW LBL EHA 40 NW GCK 10 E HLC CNK 25 E MHK CNU 20 SE BVO. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 W RRT 35 NW FAR 20 NE ABR 10 W PIR 10 NE RAP 15 S REJ 40 NE DIK 65 NW MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NW LRD 25 SSW TPL 35 ESE DAL 20 ENE ADM 15 SSE FSI 60 NNW ABI 20 SW BGS 50 SSW MRF ...CONT... 15 SE SAN 30 WNW TRM 25 E LAS 50 W RKS 20 NNE BPI JAC 30 WNW MQM 35 SSE S80 15 SW PUW 35 NNW GEG 25 N 63S ...CONT... 40 NW ELO 35 WSW STC 15 SSW FRM 35 WNW OTM 25 ENE JEF POF 35 NE MSL 60 WNW AND 35 WNW CAE 40 SSW FAY 15 ENE ECG. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NRN PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...DAKOTAS... SRN BC/AB UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD INTO SK AS UPPER SPEED MAX EJECTS NEWD FROM THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS WY INTO ND. THIS EVOLUTION WILL ALLOW SFC PRESSURES TO BUILD ACROSS MT FORCING A SHARP COLD FRONT INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS BY LATE AFTERNOON. AS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASES...STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF WIND SHIFT WILL ENHANCE INSTABILITY...AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH...AIDING ORGANIZATIONAL POTENTIAL OF TSTM ACTIVITY ALONG ADVANCING COLD FRONT. ALTHOUGH INITIAL DEVELOPMENT MAY PROVE DISCRETE...STRONG FORCING ALONG BOUNDARY SHOULD ENCOURAGE LINEAR STRUCTURES WITH TIME AND A SQUALL LINE MAY ULTIMATELY EVOLVE. DAMAGING WINDS OR LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS AS CONVECTION SPREADS EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ...CENTRAL PLAINS... LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST LATE DAY1 MCS ACTIVITY WILL BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD ACROSS KS. THIS CONVECTION WILL BE SUSTAINED BY WEAK LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION...LIKELY PERSISTING IN SOME FASHION FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AS IT SPREADS TOWARD WRN MO. STRONG HEATING WILL OCCUR ALONG SRN FRINGE OF MCS CLOUD CANOPY...SWWD ACROSS NWRN OK INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. DESPITE MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THIS REGION...IT APPEARS STRONG INSTABILITY WILL EVOLVE GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF TROPICAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE EXPECTED STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT. LATEST THINKING IS CONVERGENCE WILL PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF LATE AFTERNOON ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...EXTENDING FROM THE OLD CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW ENVIRONMENT...SWWD INTO NWRN OK. LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS ACROSS THIS REGION WITH SLOW ESEWD PROPAGATION ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER EXPECTED DURING THE EVENING HOURS. ..DARROW.. 08/23/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 24 16:12:50 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 24 Aug 2005 11:12:50 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200508241730.j7OHU0OA022889@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 241728 SWODY2 SPC AC 241727 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1227 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2005 VALID 251200Z - 261200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NW BRD 10 NNE STC 15 SSE MKT 60 WSW DSM 20 NNW FNB 20 NE CNK 20 N HLC 30 SE AKO 25 WSW SNY 20 ENE AIA 35 NNE ANW 40 NE ABR 20 E FAR 45 NW BRD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W CZZ 15 WSW RAL 40 NW PMD 30 WNW BIH 20 SSE U31 60 SW DPG 55 N PUC 20 W RWL DGW 45 SE RAP 40 NNW MBG 65 NNW DVL ...CONT... 15 NNW MQT 45 ENE VOK 35 SW RFD LAF 30 SSW CMH 30 N CRW 15 NW BLF 20 SW TRI 25 E CHA 25 WNW RMG ANB 15 WNW CSG 50 SSE MCN 30 ENE SAV. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 N DRT 45 NNW AUS 30 NNE LFK 50 SE SHV 15 N ELD 35 ESE PGO 50 WSW MKO 15 WSW OKC 30 SE CDS MAF 30 ESE FST 75 N DRT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM MN TO NEB... ...UPPER MS VALLEY TO CENTRAL PLAINS... SIGNIFICANT LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY REGION DURING THE DAY2 PERIOD AS UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS SRN SK...INTO SRN MANITOBA. TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY SERVE AS A CATALYST FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS MAY BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD ACROSS ERN ND/NWRN MN...NWD SHIFTING LLJ INTO NWRN ONTARIO WILL FAVOR EARLY-MID DAY ACTIVITY SPREADING/DEVELOPING INTO CANADA. WITH TIME...DAYTIME HEATING ALONG FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS NEB INTO SWRN MN WILL AID IN STRONG AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION...LIKELY RESULTING IN MLCAPE VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 3000 J/KG PRIOR TO STORM INITIATION. DESPITE STRONGEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR LAGGING THE FRONTAL ZONE...IT APPEARS SUFFICIENT HIGH LEVEL FLOW...COMBINED WITH EXPECTED INSTABILITY...WILL SPREAD INTO THE WARM SECTOR TO WARRANT A THREAT OF SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE CONVECTIVE CYCLE. WITH TIME FRONTAL FORCING/STORM MERGERS WILL LEAD TO POSSIBLE MCS DEVELOPMENT AS COMPLEX SPREADS ACROSS NEB. LESS INTENSE ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP NEWD ALONG THE FRONT AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS MN...SUPPORTED LARGELY BY STRONGER DYNAMIC FORCING. LARGE HAIL APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT...ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS. ...SOUTH FL... KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE SERN PENINSULA AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. STRONGEST SHEAR PROFILES...FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES...WILL LIKELY HOLD OFFSHORE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY2 PERIOD. FOR THIS REASON WILL NOT ISSUE AN OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FL. HOWEVER...IF KATRINA INCREASES SPEED AND THREATENS LANDFALL EARLIER IN THE DAY2 PERIOD AN OUTLOOK MAY BE REQUIRED. REF NHC FOR FURTHER DETAILS. ..DARROW.. 08/24/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 25 04:45:49 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 24 Aug 2005 23:45:49 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200508250602.j7P62rSL031677@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 250600 SWODY2 SPC AC 250559 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1259 AM CDT THU AUG 25 2005 VALID 261200Z - 271200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N MSN 15 NNW GRR JXN DAY SDF MKL HOT OKC GAG DHT 50 ESE LIC MCK BIE STJ OTM DBQ 25 N MSN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NE CRP COT 60 N DRT 10 SSE SJT MWL 10 SSW SPS 40 SSE CDS MAF 20 SSW P07 ...CONT... 10 S CZZ PMD BFL BIH TPH MLF 4HV 30 NNE CEZ 50 ESE GUC 10 SSE DEN 10 WNW CYS 10 SE CDR MHE 10 ENE STC 30 NNE ELO ...CONT... 10 SW BUF 45 WSW ELM HGR AVL ANB 0A8 10 NNE PNS TLH 40 SSW CHS. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FRI FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS THRU THE MID MS VLY AND PARTS OF THE LWR OH VLY.... WITH MOST SIGNIFICANT UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC...EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF CLOSED LOW INTO/ACROSS CENTRAL MANITOBA SEEMS LIKELY TO SLOW LATE TODAY INTO FRIDAY...SOUTH OF RIDGE IN NORTHERN BRANCH OF POLAR JET. HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE IMPULSE WILL DIG IN CYCLONIC FLOW TO THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH OF UPPER LOW...LEADING TO AMPLIFICATION OF UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY EARLY SATURDAY. SUBTROPICAL RIDGING IS ALREADY BECOMING SUPPRESSED ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST...ASSOCIATED WITH AMPLIFIED IMPULSE NOW FINALLY SHIFTING EAST OF ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS. THIS WILL ALLOW VERY SLOW EASTWARD MIGRATION OF TROPICAL SYSTEM INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. WHILE SUBTROPICAL RIDGING ALSO BECOMES SUPPRESSED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION FRIDAY...MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO HOLD FIRM FROM THE EAST CENTRAL PACIFIC THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST STATES AND WESTERN GULF COAST REGION. ...CNTRL PLAINS THROUGH MID MS VLY AND GREAT LAKES REGION... GIVEN STRONG POTENTIAL INSTABILITY BUILDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES...ASSOCIATED WITH ADVECTION OF ELEVATED MIXED LAYER OFF THE ROCKIES...ABOVE VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH 70F DEW POINTS... EVOLUTION OF ONE OR MORE LARGE CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS STILL SEEMS LIKELY TO OCCUR LATE TODAY/TONIGHT. THIS WILL OCCUR WITH LARGE- SCALE WEAKENING OF MID-LEVEL CAP EAST SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS/MID MISSOURI VALLEY...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN CONVECTION INTO EARLY FRIDAY. CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH REGARD TO DETAILS OF CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION...AND ITS INFLUENCE ON SUBSEQUENT POTENTIAL FOR NEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CURRENTLY...IT APPEARS THAT LARGE COMPOSITE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY EXTEND FROM PARTS OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS THROUGH NORTHERN MISSOURI/NORTHEAST KANSAS AT 12Z FRIDAY. SOUTH OF MAIN SURFACE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGH IN SOUTHERN BRANCH OF POLAR WESTERLIES...THIS BOUNDARY MAY BE OF MOST SIGNIFICANCE TO SUBSEQUENT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. BOUNDARY LAYER TO THE WEST/SOUTH AND EAST OF THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE WITH SURFACE HEATING...AND CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 2000 TO 3000 J/KG APPEARS POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. POSSIBLE CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED MID-LEVEL JET STREAK/VORTICITY CENTER MAY CONTRIBUTE TO FORCING FOR INTENSIFICATION OR INITIATION OF NEW STORMS FROM EASTERN MISSOURI INTO ILLINOIS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS PROGGED TO BE WEAK ACROSS THIS REGION...BUT MEAN CLOUD BEARING LAYER WINDS MAY EXCEED 30 KT... ENHANCING STORM MOTION AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT. ACTIVITY MAY PROGRESS INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES/LOWER OHIO VALLEY REGION BEFORE WEAKENING FRIDAY EVENING. ADDITIONAL NEW STORM CLUSTER APPEARS POSSIBLE BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ADVANCING THROUGH SOUTHERN KANSAS INTO OKLAHOMA. LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL BECOME FOCUSED ACROSS THIS REGION...AND ACTIVITY MAY CONTINUE WELL AFTER DARK WITH NOCTURNAL STRENGTHENING OF SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET. STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL IN MOST VIGOROUS STORMS. MEANWHILE...STRONGLY HEATED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL SUPPORT A FEW DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS...AS WELL AS STRONG GUSTY WINDS ALONG OUTFLOWS. ...FLORIDA PENINSULA... AS KATRINA PROGRESSES ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FRIDAY ...POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO COULD INCREASE AS FLOW TURNS TO SOUTHERLY FLOW IN WAKE OF SYSTEM...OFFERING BETTER POTENTIAL FOR BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION. ..KERR.. 08/25/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 25 16:04:21 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 25 Aug 2005 11:04:21 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200508251721.j7PHLNKr002340@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 251719 SWODY2 SPC AC 251717 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1217 PM CDT THU AUG 25 2005 VALID 261200Z - 271200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE FYV 30 SSE P28 10 ENE DDC 55 SSW HLC 35 N HLC 20 SSW OMA 35 SSE DSM 20 N UIN 30 NNE SLO 15 ENE HOP 60 N MSL 35 SSW MKL 25 NW MEM 45 SW ARG 20 NNE FYV. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW BUF 15 N BFD 15 S AOO 20 NW SHD 20 NNE AVL ANB 20 W TCL 35 ENE MEI 45 WSW SEM 30 SSW TOI ABY 10 NE CRE ...CONT... 35 NE CRP 65 SSE DRT ...CONT... 15 SSW IPL 20 N TRM 40 ENE DAG 30 NNE LAS 20 ENE SGU 20 ESE CNY 15 S CYS 10 NE MHE BRD 40 ESE INL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE P07 30 WNW JCT 35 WNW TPL 30 SSE FTW 40 NNE MWL 30 SE CDS 40 ESE PVW 25 ESE HOB 40 SSW INK 20 S FST 25 NE P07. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL PLAINS AND MID MS-VALLEY... ...CNTRL PLAINS/MID MS-VALLEY... AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AND MOVE EWD INTO THE CNTRL AND NRN PLAINS FRIDAY. DUE TO THE STRONG FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH...SCATTERED STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD THROUGH SRN NEB AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. AS STRONG ASCENT CONTINUES TO SPREAD EWD DURING THE DAY...DESTABILIZATION AND ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT. THE NAM IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE CONCERNING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THAN THE GFS SUGGESTING STORM COVERAGE REMAINS UNCERTAIN ATTM. HOWEVER...BOTH NAM AND GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WITH SBCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 2000 TO 3000 J/KG FROM CNTRL KS EXTENDING EWD INTO PARTS OF THE MID-MS VALLEY. IN ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW 30 TO 40 KT OF VERTICAL SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION SUGGESTING A SUPERCELL THREAT WILL EXIST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE STEEPEST ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS WHERE THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL WILL LIKELY BE THE GREATEST. ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DUE TO STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND VEERED LOW-LEVEL WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS ERN KS AND THE OZARK PLATEAU. THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL LIKELY BE ENHANCED IF A COLD POOL CAN GENERATE IN THE HIGHER INSTABILITY SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD LAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING DUE TO THE RELATIVELY HIGH INSTABILITY THAT SHOULD BE IN PLACE. ...SRN AND CNTRL FL... TROPICAL STORM KATRINA IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED JUST OFF THE SRN FL COAST. THE TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER FORECASTS KATRINA TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE PENINSULA REACHING THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO LATE IN THE DAY ON FRIDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FRIDAY ACROSS FL SHOW THE GREATEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SOUTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE NEAR THE CENTER OF KATRINA WITH SBCAPE VALUES IN THE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE. DUE TO THE ENHANCED SHEAR AND MODERATE INSTABILITY...A TORNADO POTENTIAL SHOULD BE PRESENT WITH ANY MINI-SUPERCELLS THAT INITIATE AND MOVE WWD ACROSS CNTRL AND SRN FL. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM SHOW 0-1 KM SHEAR VALUES ONLY AROUND 15 KT SUGGESTING THE TORNADO THREAT WILL REMAIN MARGINAL. THE THREAT MAY DECREASE ACROSS SRN FL LATE IN THE PERIOD AS KATRINA MOVES OFFSHORE INTO THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO. ..BROYLES.. 08/25/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 26 05:01:28 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 26 Aug 2005 00:01:28 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200508260618.j7Q6ITPK006585@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 260615 SWODY2 SPC AC 260615 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0115 AM CDT FRI AUG 26 2005 VALID 271200Z - 281200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 N ROC 30 NNE LBE 20 SE PKB 55 SE LUK 45 NE SDF IND 40 W FWA JXN 45 N MTC. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW HOB 20 SW TCC 50 E TAD 45 ESE LAA 30 NE LBL 30 S GAG 60 S CDS 50 S LBB 35 NNW HOB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WSW FHU 55 ESE PRC 15 SE PGA 20 N U28 25 NNW CAG 45 NNW IML 25 WNW FNB 40 SSE OTM 20 ESE JVL 10 NW MTW 40 ESE MQT 95 NNW ANJ ...CONT... 30 NE ORF 25 NNE SOP 35 E HKY 50 SW PSK 20 N SHD 25 N CXY 10 S UCA 35 NW PBG. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... THE UPPER TROUGH NOW CENTERED OVER WRN MANITOBA AND EXTENDING INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS WILL CONTINUE EWD INTO WRN ONTARIO BY SATURDAY. A SERIES OF VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY REGION ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...TIMING DIFFERENCES EXISTS WITHIN THE MODELS. BOTH THE ETA AND THE GFS SUGGEST A LEAD SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES EARLY IN THE PERIOD ACCOMPANIED BY A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH. BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD EXTEND FROM THE GREAT LAKES SWWD THROUGH THE WRN PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY. THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY SWWD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL SHIFT EWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY DURING THE DAY...WHILE THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS SEWD. ...GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY AREAS... BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 WILL BEGIN ADVECTING NEWD INTO THE OH VALLEY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EWD AND THE LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS A MORE SWLY OR WLY COMPONENT. FORCING FOR ASCENT ACCOMPANYING LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY EARLY SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO BE ONGOING AND MAY LIMIT DESTABILIZATION WITHIN ZONE OF BEST DEEP LAYER ASCENT ALONG AND JUST E OF THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. WHERE SURFACE HEATING DOES OCCUR...MLCAPES FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE RETURNING RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. FLOW THROUGH 6 KM IS FORECAST TO REMAIN MODEST OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR AOB 30 KT. AN EXCEPTION WILL BE WRN PA/WRN NY AREA WHERE THE LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD STRENGTHEN IN EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER JET ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH...RESULTING IN STRONGER LOW LEVEL SHEAR. IF SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION CAN OCCUR...STORMS MAY INTENSIFY DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH A POTENTIAL FOR PRIMARILY DAMAGING WIND FROM PARTS OF IND THROUGH OH AND POSSIBLY SERN LOWER MI. FARTHER EAST...OVER WRN PA INTO WRN NY...THE THREAT APPEARS EVEN MORE CONDITIONAL GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR LESS HEATING. HOWEVER...IF SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION CAN OCCUR...THREAT WILL EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHOES GIVEN MORE FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES. ...ERN NM...ERN CO THROUGH WRN TX... SURFACE FRONT WILL DEVELOP SWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS AND EXTEND FROM THE GREAT LAKES SWWD THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO NRN TX AND ERN NM EARLY SATURDAY. RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESIDE IN THE VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY BELOW STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. MODEST ELY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL DEVELOP IN POST FRONTAL REGIME ACROSS ERN CO AND ERN NM BELOW NWLY FLOW ALOFT. STORMS MAY DEVELOP WITHIN THE UPSLOPE REGIME AS WELL AS IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT AND SPREAD EWD DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK WITH ONLY 15 TO 20 KT AT 6 KM. HOWEVER... DIRECTIONAL SHEAR SHOULD BE AT LEAST MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. ACTIVITY MAY EVOLVE INTO AN MCS WITH A CONTINUING THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER INTO THE EVENING. ...FL... KATRINA IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO SATURDAY. SEE LATEST DISCUSSION FROM NHC FOR FURTHER DETAILS. AT THIS POINT WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN LOW PROBABILITIES FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND OR ISOLATED TORNADOES GIVEN FL WILL BE IN THE FAVORABLE NE QUADRANT TO EXPERIENCE STRONGER STORMS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE OUTER RAINBANDS. PORTIONS OF THIS AREA MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A SLIGHT RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS DEPENDING ON THE MOVEMENT AND EVOLUTION OF KATRINA. ..DIAL.. 08/26/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 28 04:19:33 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 27 Aug 2005 23:19:33 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200508280537.j7S5bIWR019544@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 280534 SWODY2 SPC AC 280533 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1233 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005 VALID 291200Z - 301200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E 7R4 25 E HEZ 15 ESE GWO 45 SSE MKL 40 NE HSV 50 E RMG 40 SSW MCN 45 WNW CTY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NNW ISN 30 SE MLS 15 S WRL 25 N OGD 35 NE EKO 55 WNW OWY 25 E BKE 25 WSW PDT 20 SSE DLS 20 WSW AST. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WSW TUS 15 NE GUP 15 SE TAD 15 ENE P28 40 W UNO 30 WSW OWB 20 N LUK CLE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL GULF COAST THROUGH PARTS OF MS...AL AND GA... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER TROUGH NOW CENTERED OVER WRN ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY EWD INTO SERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY. A MUCH STRONGER MORE BAROCLINIC UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PACIFIC NW AND INTO THE NRN ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION ACCOMPANIED BY A STRONG COLD FRONT. HURRICANE KATRINA IS FORECAST BY NHC TO MAKE LANDFALL MONDAY ALONG THE SERN LA COAST. ...CNTRL GULF COASTAL STATES... CURRENT FORECAST IS FOR KATRINA TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER SERN LA EARLY MONDAY. SEE LATEST ADVISORIES FROM NHC FOR FURTHER DETAILS. OUTER RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE HURRICANE SHOULD BEGIN AFFECTING THE CNTRL GULF COASTAL AREA AS EARLY AS SUNDAY NIGHT. THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES SHOULD SPREAD NWD MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS THE OUTER RAINBANDS CONTINUE NWD THROUGH MS...AL AND GA. ...NRN ROCKIES THROUGH ERN MT... STRONG FORCING FOR DEEP LAYER ASCENT WILL OCCUR ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS IT MOVES EWD THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES MONDAY. DESPITE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND EXPECTED STRONG SURFACE HEATING...VERY LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN MARGINAL INSTABILITY. INVERTED-V BOUNDARY LAYER PROFILES SHOULD DEVELOP IN PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR. HIGH BASED STORMS WILL LIKELY INITIATE IN THE ZONE OF STRONG ASCENT ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM WRN MT SWD INTO ID...THEN SUBSEQUENTLY SPREAD EWD. STRONG KINEMATIC PROFILES IN ADDITION TO THE DRY INVERTED-V BOUNDARY LAYERS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND. MARGINAL INSTABILITY MAY SERVE AS AN OVERALL LIMITING FACTOR FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE EPISODE...AND WILL INTRODUCE ONLY 5% WIND PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME. THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS. ...OH VALLEY THROUGH NERN STATES... PROXIMITY OF UPPER TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN FAIRLY STRONG FLOW AOA 6 KM. HOWEVER...LOWER LEVEL BAROCLINICITY IS NOT FORECAST TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG WITH ONLY MODEST FLOW AND SHEAR WITHIN THE LOWEST 5 KM. ACCOMPANYING SURFACE FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES SWWD INTO THE ERN PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY EARLY MONDAY. MODERATE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED IN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR DURING THE AFTERNOON. STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG AND E OF THE FRONT WITHIN THE WEAKLY CAPPED WARM SECTOR BY LATE MORNING AND SUBSEQUENTLY SPREAD EWD. THOUGH MODEST KINEMATIC PROFILES ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE LOWEST 5 KM...SHEAR THROUGH A DEEPER LAYER MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME STORMS TO ORGANIZE. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ..DIAL.. 08/28/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 28 16:14:14 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 28 Aug 2005 11:14:14 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200508281732.j7SHW7RA004598@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 281729 SWODY2 SPC AC 281728 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1228 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005 VALID 291200Z - 301200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ESE 7R4 25 WSW JAN 30 ESE GWO 30 NW MSL 50 WNW CHA 55 E CHA 30 SW AHN AQQ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW FHU 10 ENE SAD 40 SSE GNT SAF LVS TCC 40 WNW LBB 35 ESE BGS JCT 30 SSW AUS 25 NNE CLL 20 ENE GGG 15 W HOT 55 SSW UNO 60 NW CGI 35 ESE DNV 20 E GRR 30 SW HTL 70 E MQT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NW ISN 4BQ WRL 30 N OGD 50 ENE EKO 55 WNW OWY BKE PDT DLS 20 WSW AST. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE GULF COASTAL STATES FROM SERN LA/MS EWD INTO WRN GA.... ...SYNOPSIS... POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL EARLY IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD ACROSS THE NRN GULF COAST ...AND THEN TURN NNEWD AND MOVE THROUGH MS DURING THE PERIOD. A STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD INTO THE NRN ROCKIES WITH COLD TROUGH ALOFT SHIFTING SLOWLY EWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. HOWEVER...THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD BE LOCATED ON THE ERN SIDE OF KATRINA...FROM SERN LA/ERN MS EWD ACROSS AL AND INTO WRN GA. ...CNTRL GULF COASTAL STATES... GIVEN THE SIZE AND INTENSITY OF HURRICANE KATRINA...SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS LIKELY TO EXTEND MUCH FURTHER EAST THAN IS NORMALLY OBSERVED WITH MOST HURRICANES. VERY STRONG ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS AND LOW/DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN RAIN BANDS WELL EAST OF THE CENTER...ALONG WITH TORNADOES. TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT IF AND WHERE A BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY MIGHT PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR A SMALL AND LOCALIZED TORNADO OUTBREAK. HOWEVER... CURRENT FORECAST TRACK OF KATRINA SUGGESTS THAT STRONGEST LOW LEVEL SHEAR/TORNADO THREAT...AWAY FROM THE ACTUAL CENTER...WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS AL DURING THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHTTIME HOURS. REFERENCE LATEST NHC FOR UP TO DATE INFORMATION ON HURRICANE KATRINA. ...NRN ROCKIES... LIFTING SHOULD STRENGTHEN DURING THE DAY AS STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SPREADS EWD AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH. DESPITE A RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER...THE STRONG FORCING AND STEEP LAPSE RATES SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR HIGH BASED STORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS WRN MT/ID MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND THEN SHIFT EWD INTO ERN MT OVERNIGHT. THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NORTH OF MT IN SASKATCHEWAN...BUT STRONG ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS AND DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WOULD FAVOR AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THREAT. ...OH VALLEY THROUGH NERN STATES... PROXIMITY OF UPPER TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN MODERATELY STRONG SWLY FLOW ALOFT. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE IN WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT ALONG SURFACE TROUGH FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES SWWD INTO OH. VERTICAL WIND PROFILES SUGGEST A WIND THREAT MAY EXISTS IF TEMPERATURES CAN WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S. HOWEVER...CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION MAY LIMIT HEATING AND THREAT OF WIND DAMAGE APPEARS LOW ATTM. ..IMY.. 08/28/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 29 05:06:18 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 29 Aug 2005 00:06:18 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200508290625.j7T6P5mI014479@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 290621 SWODY2 SPC AC 290620 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0120 AM CDT MON AUG 29 2005 VALID 301200Z - 311200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WSW DCA 20 WSW ROA 25 NNE AVL 50 NW AHN 30 E GAD 30 SSW HSV 35 NNW MSL 25 NE CKV 20 NW SDF 30 NNW LUK 20 SSW MFD 10 WNW YNG 15 SSE DUJ 20 N HGR 45 WSW DCA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW BVE 60 NNE MOB 25 WSW 0A8 40 WSW CBM 30 W MEM 30 ENE ARG 20 E SLO 25 NW MIE 40 E TOL ...CONT... 55 W 3B1 10 NNE MWN 20 SSE CON 20 WSW HYA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W INL 10 ESE BRD 15 NE SPW 20 NE LNK 30 NNE RSL 35 SE LAA 35 N TAD 55 W COS 40 ENE CAG 50 SE LND 50 ENE JAC 25 SW LVM 15 SSE GTF 60 ENE CTB. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE TN VALLEY THROUGH THE OH VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... HURRICANE KATRINA IS FORECAST BY NHC TO MOVE NWD THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY MONDAY AND INTO THE TN VALLEY AS A TROPICAL STORM BY THE START OF THIS PERIOD. THE REMNANTS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE NEWD INTO THE OH VALLEY TUESDAY. A VERY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ITS ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EWD THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER SERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES AREA. ...TN AND OH VALLEYS... KATRINA IS FORECAST TO BE A TROPICAL STORM AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD AND CONTINUE NEWD THROUGH THE TN AND OH VALLEYS. SEE LATEST DISCUSSIONS FROM NHC ON KATRINA. STRONG LOW VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL PERSIST E OF THE CENTER AND POTENTIAL MAY ALSO EXIST FOR THE STORM TO INTERACT WITH A PRE-EXISTING SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE OH VALLEY...WHICH COULD FURTHER ENHANCE LOW LEVEL SHEAR. ONCE THE STORM BEGINS TO ENTRAIN DRYER MID LEVEL AIR...THE CHANCE FOR SURFACE HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION SHOULD INCREASE. STORMS MAY INTENSIFY DURING THE DAY E AND NE OF THE CENTER...ESPECIALLY WHERE CLOUD BREAKS PERMIT SURFACE HEATING. THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS PERIOD WITH GREATEST THREAT EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE TN VALLEY AND DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER ACTIVITY. ...NRN PLAINS... A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EWD THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS TUESDAY. MOISTURE RETURN WITHIN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR MAY BE LIMITED BY ESELY LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES EMANATING FROM A COOL SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 50S EXPECTED. MARGINAL TO MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON. A PLUME OF VERY WARM AIR WITHIN THE 1-3 KM LAYER ASSOCIATED WITH THE EML WILL SPREAD NEWD ABOVE THE EXPECTED LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...RESULTING IN A STRONG CAP WITHIN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER...VERY STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT WITHIN THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL SUPPORT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND W OF THE SURFACE FRONT. STORMS MAY EVOLVE INTO LINE SEGMENTS AS THEY MOVE EWD THROUGH ND AND SD. THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND POSSIBLY HAIL. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTORS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG CAP AND EXPECTED POST FRONTAL NATURE OF THE STORMS...WILL MAINTAIN ONLY 5% SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...PART OF THIS AREA MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO SLIGHT RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS. ..DIAL.. 08/29/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 29 16:13:07 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 29 Aug 2005 11:13:07 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200508291730.j7THUkuu006445@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 291728 SWODY2 SPC AC 291727 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1227 PM CDT MON AUG 29 2005 VALID 301200Z - 311200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW DCA 55 N RWI AGS 25 NE LGC GAD 45 NNE MSL 10 ENE CKV 45 WNW SDF 30 NE DAY 20 SE YNG 15 ENE PSB 15 W CXY 15 SW DCA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PNS 15 ESE SEM 10 SE TCL 20 SSE UOX 10 N MEM 25 NNE POF MTO FWA 35 E TOL ...CONT... 55 W 3B1 10 NNE MWN 20 SSE CON 20 WSW HYA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM RRT 65 ENE STC 20 ESE RST ALO 35 ESE OMA LNK GLD LIC DEN DGW SHR 40 NE HVR. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER OHIO/TN VALLEYS AND APPALACHIANS...... ...SYNOPSIS... REMNANTS OF KATRINA ARE FORECAST TO MOVE NEWD INTO THE TN VALLEY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT RAPIDLY EWD FROM THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST... WHICH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT FROM MN SWWD INTO NERN NM BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. MOISTURE SHOULD BE LIMITED IN THE NRN PLAINS... SO THE GREATER THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER...INCLUDING TORNADOES...WILL BE IN ASSOCIATION WITH KATRINA. ...TN AND OH VALLEYS AND APPALACHIANS... ALTHOUGH THE CORE WINDS AROUND KATRINA WILL WEAKEN AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NEWD THROUGH THE PERIOD...MID AND HIGH LEVEL WINDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SYSTEM WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENTS BETWEEN KATRINA AND THE ATLANTIC RIDGE. SEVERAL BANDS OF STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED EAST OF THE CENTER AND LIFT NEWD THROUGH THE DAY. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...THE STRENGTH OF THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WITHIN THE THUNDERSTORM BANDS. MODELS SUGGEST A BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND EWD FROM KATRINA AND ENHANCE THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE AND TORNADOES. THE TORNADO THREAT WOULD BE ENHANCED IF SOME HEATING OCCURS IN THE VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. ATTM IT APPEARS THE BEST COMBINATION OF LOW/DEEP LAYER SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT A HIGHER CHANCE OF TORNADOES ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY AND SRN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. PORTIONS OF THIS AREA MAY BE UNGRADED TO A MODERATE RISK IN THE DAY 1 OUTLOOKS...ONCE THE THREAT AREA FOR A LOCALIZED TORNADO OUTBREAK CAN BE IDENTIFIED. ...ND/SD/WRN MN AND NWRN IA... STRONG LIFT AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL ACCOMPANY THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE INHIBITED BY NLY WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS BEHIND KATRINA AND DRIER AIR SPREADING WWD FROM A COOL SURFACE RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AREA. DEEP LAYER SHEAR AT 30-40 KT WOULD SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION...THOUGH THE LIMITED MOISTURE/WEAK INSTABILITY SUGGESTS STORM COVERAGE MAY BE ISOLATED. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE DRY BOUNDARY AIR AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WOULD BE CAPABLE OF STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS...SO A 5% PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IS MAINTAINED. ..IMY.. 08/29/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 30 04:52:41 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 29 Aug 2005 23:52:41 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200508300610.j7U6ALEo030239@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 300607 SWODY2 SPC AC 300606 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0106 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005 VALID 311200Z - 011200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E SBY 10 SSW ILG 20 WSW AVP BGM 15 NNW UCA 20 WSW SLK 25 WSW EFK 20 E BML 25 WSW BHB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNW MQT 20 N OSH 45 ENE MLI 45 NE COU 30 NNE JLN 30 S END 25 NW CDS 25 NNE HOB 65 WNW MRF ...CONT... 20 SSE YUM 40 NNW BLH 45 E LAS 30 SE CDC 35 SE 4HV 35 ESE GUC 20 WNW LHX 35 NNW GCK 30 WNW RSL 40 S HSI 30 NE GRI 30 SW MHE 30 NW HON 55 NW ABR 70 NW DVL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW GPT 65 N MOB 25 NW AUO 25 SSW AHN 35 SSE SPA 25 NNE CLT 40 SSW PSK 55 E JKL 35 SSE LEX 35 E BWG 30 NNE HOP 25 WSW EVV 25 NE HUF 15 NNE FWA 20 ENE DTW. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE NERN U.S.... ...SYNOPSIS... REMNANTS OF KATRINA ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO THE NERN U.S. BY WEDNESDAY...GRADUALLY TAKING ON EXTRA-TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. SEE LATEST DISCUSSIONS FROM NHC/HPC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE AVN CONTINUES TO BE FASTER THAN THE ETA AND MORE IN LINE WITH THE NHC FORECAST. FARTHER WEST...THE STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE NWRN U.S. WILL CONTINUE EWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY WEDNESDAY. ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT WILL TO EXTEND FROM THE ERN DAKOTAS SWWD INTO THE NRN NM EARLY WEDNESDAY THEN CONTINUE EWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND TRAIL SWWD THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS BY LATE IN THE DAY. ...NERN U.S.... REMNANTS OF KATRINA WILL CONTINUE NEWD TOWARD THE NERN STATES... GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE EXTRA-TROPICAL. KATRINA WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH A PRE-EXISTING BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE OH VALLEY. BY EARLY WEDNESDAY THE CENTER OF KATRINA IS FORECAST BY NHC TO BE NEAR EXTREME WRN NY STATE. A SURFACE BOUNDARY SHOULD EXTEND NEWD FROM THE LOW THROUGH NY AND INTO NEW ENGLAND. RAIN WILL LIKELY BE WIDESPREAD WITHIN THE DEFORMATION ZONE N OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY. S OF THE FRONT A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL MAINTAIN AN INFLUX OF TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE NERN U.S. AND NEW ENGLAND WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S LIKELY. AS IS USUALLY THE CASE WITH THESE TYPES OF SYSTEMS...THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WILL BE AVAILABLE WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR E AND SE OF THE LOW CENTER. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS...ONGOING CONVECTION AND WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY LIMIT INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AT LEAST MARGINAL CAPE WHERE POCKETS OF SURFACE HEATING CAN DEVELOP. STRONG SHEAR PROFILES WILL PERSIST IN THE WARM SECTOR E OF THE LOW CENTER. ISOLATED TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS PROVIDED SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP. ...NERN NM THROUGH CNTRL PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY AREA... STRONGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT ACCOMPANYING THE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND WRN GREAT LAKES REGION. HOWEVER...ESELY LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES EMANATING FROM A COOL SURFACE RIDGE SHOULD LIMIT INSTABILITY IN THIS AREA. AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP WITHIN THE PRE-FRONTAL ZONE FARTHER S OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS WHERE RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SURFACE HEATING WILL EXIST. HOWEVER...SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND WEAKER FORCING FOR ASCENT ALONG THE FRONT IN THIS AREA MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. STORMS THAT DO MANAGE TO DEVELOP MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL OR STRONG WIND GUSTS. OVERALL THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT MORE THAN 5% SEVERE PROBABILITIES. ..DIAL.. 08/30/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 30 16:15:26 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 30 Aug 2005 11:15:26 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200508301735.j7UHZLoK014528@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 301731 SWODY2 SPC AC 301730 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1230 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005 VALID 311200Z - 011200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NW 3B1 45 NNE 3B1 HUL ...CONT... 25 SSW WAL 20 W NHK 25 SSE MRB 10 NE PSB 30 NNW ITH 45 ENE ART 25 NE PBG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW CMX 40 E DBQ 45 S UIN 15 NW FYV 25 NNW ABI 30 NNE FST 55 W MRF ...CONT... 15 SSE YUM BLH 30 N EED 25 S SGU 30 ESE 4HV 35 ESE ASE 25 SSW LIC 45 NNW GCK 30 ESE HLC 40 S HSI 30 NE GRI 30 SW MHE 30 NW HON 55 NW ABR 70 NW DVL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW 7R4 20 WSW LUL 45 N MGM 10 SSW AHN 30 SSE SPA 30 W CLT 20 NW HKY 35 NNW TRI 35 NW JKL 25 ESE LUK 40 WNW CMH 35 NNW CLE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND STATES... ...MID-ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND... THE REMNANTS OF KATRINA ARE FORECAST BY THE TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER TO BE NEAR CLEVELAND OH AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. KATRINA IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEWD INTO FAR WRN NY DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AND INTO SRN QUEBEC WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HEAVY RAINBANDS WILL BE IN PLACE WEDNESDAY MORNING...SPREADING NEWD ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND NEW ENGLAND STATES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON SHOW MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN PLACE WITH 0-1 KM SHEAR VALUES EXCEEDING 25 KT OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. THIS WILL LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS ESPECIALLY WHERE ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ALLOW FOR SOME DESTABILIZATION. THE FAST MOVEMENT OF KATRINA AND THE LARGE WARM SECTOR EAST OF THE CENTER WILL AFFECT A BROAD AREA WITH A SEVERE THREAT. THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A TORNADO THREAT BUT ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND SMALL HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH SUPERCELLS. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BEGIN IN THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC GRADUALLY SPREADING NNEWD INTO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THE GREATEST TORNADO THREAT SHOULD EXIST NEAR PEAK HEATING IN THE COASTAL PLAINS OF SERN PA AND IN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY OF ERN NY WHERE STORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS IN THE AFTERNOON AND INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MAXIMIZED. ...SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS AND NRN MS VALLEY WITH THE FRONT POSITION FROM NW OK EXTENDING NEWD ACROSS ERN KS INTO ERN IA BY AFTERNOON. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION WITH SCATTERED STORMS LIKELY DEVELOPING BY THE MID-AFTERNOON HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS BY AFTERNOON SHOW WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH ABOUT 20 KT OF VERTICAL SHEAR. IN ADDITION...850 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST TO EXCEED 7.0 C/KM NEAR THE FRONT. THESE SOUNDING PROFILES WOULD RESULT IN STRONG MULTICELL THREAT WITH HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS. HOWEVER...THE RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR AND LACK OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SHOULD KEEP ANY SEVERE THREAT MARGINAL WITH THE SEVERE THREAT PRESENT MAINLY NEAR AND JUST AFTER PEAK HEATING. ..BROYLES.. 08/30/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 31 04:04:35 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 30 Aug 2005 23:04:35 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200508310522.j7V5MB2j014647@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 310519 SWODY2 SPC AC 310519 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1219 AM CDT WED AUG 31 2005 VALID 011200Z - 021200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW 63S 15 NNE EAT 45 WSW YKM 30 NNE PDX 30 ENE AST 25 ENE HQM CLM 35 WNW BLI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 SSW GBN 30 NNW PHX 25 NNE FLG 4BL 30 NNE MTJ 25 E 4FC 25 NE AKO 25 NW MCK 40 N HLC 25 W RSL 35 SW DDC 40 NNW GAG 45 ENE GAG 15 W BVO JLN 15 ESE SGF 35 WSW UNO 40 NNW LIT 25 WSW HOT 25 WNW PRX 35 SW SPS 55 NNE BGS 30 E INK 40 WSW MRF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSE DRT 10 ESE HDO 35 N VCT 25 WSW GLS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE PNS 15 SW MAI 10 NE MGR 30 NE AYS 25 ESE SAV. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS WILL CONTINUE EWD THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY. A SURFACE FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WITH TRAILING PORTIONS EXTENDING SWWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS WHERE IT WILL LIKELY STALL. OTHERWISE A PREDOMINANTLY ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED WITH THE MAIN BELT OF WLYS OVER THE NRN THIRD OF THE NATION. AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE NWRN U.S. WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE PREVAILS OVER THE SWRN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. ...SRN ROCKIES AND SRN HIGH PLAINS... LOW LEVEL ELY UPSLOPE COMPONENT WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER NM AND CO LATER WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS SWD IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT. BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO SLY THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EWD AND A WEAK LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS IN ITS WAKE. ELY LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERING TO SLY WILL ALLOW RICHER MOISTURE RESIDING FARTHER EAST TO ADVECT INTO ERN NM AND CO WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S EXPECTED UNDERNEATH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. SURFACE HEATING SHOULD SUPPORT MODERATE INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON. STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NM AND CO AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES. KINEMATIC PROFILES WILL REMAIN RATHER WEAK WITH THE FLOW AOB 15 KT THROUGH 6 KM OVER MUCH OF THIS REGION. HOWEVER...STRONG VEERING WILL SUPPORT 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 20 TO 30 KT. STORMS SHOULD BE SLOW TO MOVE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN DUE TO THE MODEST MID LEVEL WINDS. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP DURING THE EVENING OVER WRN KS AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. OVERALL THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT MORE THAN 5% SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME. ..DIAL.. 08/31/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 31 15:52:49 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 31 Aug 2005 10:52:49 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200508311710.j7VHAMQ5024694@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 311708 SWODY2 SPC AC 311706 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1206 PM CDT WED AUG 31 2005 VALID 011200Z - 021200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW 63S 15 NNE EAT 45 WSW YKM 30 NNE PDX 30 ENE AST 25 ENE HQM CLM 35 WNW BLI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW MFE 45 ENE COT 25 SE AUS 40 E LFK 10 NNE TOI 20 S CHS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 WSW TUS 35 SSW INW 20 E 4BL 15 ESE EGE 20 ESE FCL 30 SSW IML 25 S HLC 40 WSW EMP 45 SW JEF 25 W MTO 10 NNW BMG 35 NW SDF 30 NNE HOP 40 SW MEM 10 E TXK 30 NNE DAL 45 SW SPS 55 E LBB 30 SSE LBB 15 NNW MAF 85 SSW P07. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SRN ROCKIES/SRN PLAINS... AN UPPER-TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE DESERT SW WILL DAMPEN AND MOVE SLOWLY EWD TOWARD THE SRN ROCKIES TONIGHT. BROAD LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES AND INTO SRN PLAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON SUPPORTING SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT. STORM INITIATION WILL LIKELY OCCUR BY MID-DAY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN NM AND SRN CO WITH THE STORMS MOVING EWD INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON. OTHER STORMS SHOULD ALSO INITIATE IN THE PLAINS OF ERN NM AND SE CO BY LATE AFTERNOON AS DESTABILIZATION OCCURS. SFC DEWPOINTS EAST OF THE MTNS IN THE 50S F COMBINED WITH TEMPS NEAR 80 F WILL BE ENOUGH FOR MODEST INSTABILITY WITH SBCAPE VALUES ABOVE 500 J/KG. IN ADDITION... FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES IN THE 20 TO 30 KT RANGE SUGGESTING STORM MODE WILL REMAIN MULTICELLULAR. THE MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND LARGE SFC TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS MAY RESULT IN A BRIEF HAIL THREAT WITH ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. THE MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE CONCENTRATED NEAR PEAK HEATING DUE TO THE WEAK INSTABILITY EXPECTED. ..BROYLES.. 08/31/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.