[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 210617
SWODY2
SPC AC 210616

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0116 AM CDT THU APR 21 2005

VALID 221200Z - 231200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ESE
P07 30 NW JCT 20 SE SEP 30 S PRX 20 WSW HOT 55 NNE LIT 25 NE ARG 25
WNW CGI BLV 25 SSW SPI 25 SSE PIA 30 NE BMI 55 NW LAF 25 NW FWA 10
NNE FDY 15 SW CAK 25 S PIT 40 E EKN 20 ENE LYH 30 SSE DAN 40 NW FLO
20 SE AGS 45 ENE ABY 10 SE PFN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NW 4OM 25 SE 4OM
40 SSW GEG 45 SSW LWS 30 SSE BKE 35 SSW BNO 25 SSW LMT 20 NNW ACV.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 S MRF 40 WSW MWL
30 E DUA 55 S HRO 40 E HRO 30 NW UNO 20 WNW TBN 35 ESE SZL 40 N SZL
15 S LWD 25 ESE DSM 30 WNW CID DBQ 20 NE RFD 10 WSW AZO 15 SE ARB 45
NNW CLE 10 NE ERI 40 WNW ELM BGM 30 NE MSV 30 SW GON.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE OH AND TN VALLEYS INTO
THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND TX AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC
AND SERN U.S....

...SYNOPSIS...

STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW EJECTING NEWD THROUGH THE CNTRL HIGH
PLAINS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CREST OF CNTRL U.S. UPPER RIDGE TODAY
THEN ESEWD INTO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS FRIDAY. HERE IT WILL PHASE
WITH AMPLIFYING NRN STREAM TROUGH BEFORE CONTINUING INTO THE NERN
U.S. FRIDAY NIGHT. ACCOMPANYING SURFACE CYCLONE WILL DEEPEN AS IT
MOVES FROM THE OH VALLEY INTO THE NERN STATES. BY EARLY FRIDAY A
COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE MID MS VALLEY
SWWD THROUGH NRN AND SWRN TX. THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SEWD THROUGH
THE OH AND TN VALLEYS DURING THE DAY...REACHING THE MID ATLANTIC AND
WRN CAROLINAS BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.

...OH AND TN VALLEYS...

PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR WITH DEWPOINTS FROM THE UPPER 50S OVER
THE OH VALLEY TO LOWER 60S OVER THE TN VALLEY SHOULD EXIST IN THE
PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR. STORMS MAY BE ONGOING EARLY FRIDAY WITHIN
ZONE OF ASCENT AND WARM ADVECTION OVER PORTIONS OF THE OH VALLEY.
OTHER STORMS MAY BE IN PROGRESS ALONG REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
OVER THE TN VALLEY. A LIMITED SEVERE THREAT MAY EXIST WITH SOME OF
THIS ACTIVITY...BUT THE MAIN THREAT SHOULD WAIT UNTIL FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

IN WAKE OF MORNING STORMS...SURFACE HEATING AND STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES IN MID LEVEL DRY SLOT SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO AN AXIS OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY FROM THE OH VALLEY SWD INTO THE TN VALLEY. STRONG DEEP
LAYER ASCENT WITHIN FRONTAL ZONE ENHANCED BY FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
THE COMPACT VORT MAX SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO A REDEVELOPMENT OF STORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. STRENGTHENING WIND AND VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH WILL SUPPORT STORM
ORGANIZATION...INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS AND LINES WITH
BOWING SEGMENTS. DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS. GIVEN EXPECTED NATURE OF VERTICAL WIND
PROFILES...STEEPENING LAPSE RATES...AND POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE
LINES...SIGNIFICANT AND/OR WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE UPGRADE TO
MODERATE RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS.


...TX THROUGH LOWER MS VALLEY...

THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE IN
PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR FROM TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON SUPPORTED BY STEEP LAPSE RATES...SURFACE HEATING AND
BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. LOW LEVEL JET AND STRONGEST
DEEP LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT EXPECTED TO REMAIN NE OF THIS REGION.
HOWEVER...FRONTAL CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT TO
INITIATE SCATTERED STORMS...ESPECIALLY SINCE THE 2-3 KM TRAJECTORIES
WILL NOT FAVOR A STRONG CAP. LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL EFFECTIVE
VERTICAL SHEAR FROM 40 TO 50 KT WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED
STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND LINE SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND.

..DIAL.. 04/21/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.