From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 1 05:29:29 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 01 Apr 2005 00:29:29 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200504010528.j315SQGg009861@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 010526 SWODY2 SPC AC 010525 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1125 PM CST THU MAR 31 2005 VALID 021200Z - 031200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE CRE 10 SSE SOP 15 W DAN 25 SE EKN 30 ENE LBE 25 WSW IPT 10 NNW ABE 10 ENE ACY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S CTY 30 WSW SAV 40 N CAE 25 NNW HKY 25 NW BKW 25 SSW HLG 25 N FKL 30 NNE BUF ...CONT... 30 NNE PBG 20 ESE GFL 25 ENE ISP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE BIH 40 NNE MER 45 ESE RBL 70 NNE LMT 10 ESE PDT 35 SW MSO 30 NNE WEY 40 NNE EVW 45 S ELY 20 ENE BIH. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION... ...MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION... 01/00Z MODEL GUIDANCE IS TRENDING TO A SIGNIFICANT DEEPENING...AND NWD SOLUTION...OF SFC LOW AS INTENSE UPPER SPEED MAX...IN EXCESS OF 100 KT...EJECTS ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION SATURDAY. THIS EVOLUTION WILL ALLOW MODIFIED MOISTURE THAT IS ALREADY NEAR THE CAROLINA COAST TO EASILY SURGE NWD INTO THE DELMARVA REGION AHEAD OF EXPECTED SFC LOW TRACK. LATE DAY1/EARLY DAY2 FRONTAL POSITION SHOULD BE NEAR THE ERN PORTIONS OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS WRN VA/NC. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FAVOR A STRONGLY FORCED LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG ADVANCING COLD FRONT WHICH SHOULD PROGRESS RAPIDLY ACROSS THE CAROLINAS BY MID AFTERNOON. FARTHER NORTH...MODELS SUGGEST A NARROW ZONE OF CLEARING/STEEP LAPSE RATES MAY DEVELOP ACROSS VA INTO MD ALLOWING BOUNDARY LAYER TO BECOME MORE BUOYANT AHEAD OF DEEPENING SFC LOW. A SECONDARY LATE AFTERNOON MODE OF MORE INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS COULD EVOLVE THAT WOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE DELMARVA INTO THE EVENING HOURS. EXPECTED PROFILES SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORM DEVELOPMENT...WITH VERY STRONG FLOW JUST OFF THE SURFACE FAVORING DAMAGING WINDS...ESPECIALLY IF SQUALL LINE INDEED FORMS AS ANTICIPATED. ..DARROW.. 04/01/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 1 16:51:30 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 01 Apr 2005 11:51:30 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200504011650.j31GoPwF005060@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 011638 SWODY2 SPC AC 011637 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1037 AM CST FRI APR 01 2005 VALID 021200Z - 031200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW CHS 30 NNW RWI 55 ESE LYH 30 N LYH 50 W MRB PSB IPT ABE ACY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MSS GFL PVD ACK ...CONT... 25 NNW PIE 15 ENE JAX 30 NW CHS GSO SSU UNI CMH MFD CLE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS CAROLINAS TO MID ATLANTIC STATES... ...SYNOPSIS... MAJOR UPPER AIR FEATURE FOR THIS PERIOD WILL BE DEEP CYCLONE MOVING EWD ACROSS SRN APPALACHIANS THEN NEWD TOWARD MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THIS SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE FROM LOW NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER UPPER MS VALLEY...AFTER IT ABSORBS CIRCULATION NOW EVIDENT OVER MO/AR OZARKS. INTENSE SFC CYCLONE -- INITIALLY OVER WV...SHOULD MOVE TO OR REDEVELOP E OF MOUNTAINS IN VA THEN MOVE NEWD SLOWLY INTO CENTRAL/ERN PA...WHILE RAPIDLY OCCLUDING. SFC COLD FRONT...INITIALLY FROM WRN VA SWD ACROSS ERN SC AND SERN FL...WILL SWEEP OFFSHORE FL QUICKLY AND MOVE EWD ACROSS TIDEWATER REGION DURING DAY. BAROCLINIC GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONT MAY BE DIFFUSED BY PRECEDING PRECIP ACROSS MUCH OF REGION. ...TIDEWATER/ERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION... STRONG-SEVERE SQUALL LINE MAY BE ONGOING AT BEGINNING OF PERIOD...OR DEVELOPING EARLY IN PERIOD...ACROSS PORTIONS ERN CAROLINAS AND SRN VA. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVING NEWD THROUGH MORNING WITH PRIMARY SEVERE MODE BEING WIND DAMAGE. SEVERE POTENTIAL THEN SHOULD DIMINISH EARLY-MID AFTERNOON AS ACTIVITY MOVES OFFSHORE AND/OR INTO STABLE MARINE BOUNDARY LAYER OVER PORTIONS NEAR-COASTAL MID-ATLANTIC REGION. STRONG LOW LEVEL AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PROFILES ALSO WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS...EITHER EMBEDDED WITHIN MAIN CONVECTIVE BAND OR JUST AHEAD OF IT. BACKED BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW ESE-NE OF SFC LOW WILL ENHANCE VERTICAL SHEAR AND HODOGRAPH SIZE...HOWEVER...INITIAL EPISODE OF TSTMS MAY NOT BE ABLE TO TAKE FULLEST ADVANTAGE OF IT. ZONAL EXTENT OF SFC-BASED DESTABILIZATION WILL BE LIMITED BY ELY/ONSHORE COMPONENT OF FLOW OFF RELATIVELY COLD ATLANTIC WATERS. THEREFORE EXPECT GREATEST SFC-BASED BUOYANCY AND SEVERE POTENTIAL WHERE SFC FLOW IS LARGELY SLY...ACROSS ERN SC...ERN NC AND PERHAPS SRN CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION. BUOYANCY WILL BE LIMITED BY WEAK DEEP-LAYER LAPSE RATES...OFFSETTING 60S F SFC DEW POINTS TO KEEP MLCAPES LARGELY UNDER 500 J/KG IN MANY AREAS. HOWEVER...THIS STILL WILL BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SEVERE POTENTIAL GIVEN STRENGTH OF BOTH LINEAR FORCING AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. 50-60 KT GRADIENT FLOW WILL BE PRESENT JUST ABOVE BOUNDARY LAYER...WITH POTENTIAL FOR DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF MOMENTUM THROUGH SHORT DEPTH. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OFFSHORE BY 21Z. ...INTERIOR VA...CENTRAL/WRN MD...CENTRAL PA... SECONDARY SEVERE THREAT -- FROM CENTRAL PA SWD INTO NRN VA -- SPATIALLY OVERLAPS WITH NWRN PORTION OF INITIAL AREA BUT WOULD DEVELOP SEVERAL HOURS LATER. CONDITIONAL RISK EXISTS FOR SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT MID-LATE AFTERNOON...ASSOCIATED WITH LIMITED BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING AND STRONG COOLING ALOFT. ALTHOUGH SFC DESTABILIZATION WILL BE RESTRAINED BY EFFECTS OF PRIOR PRECIP/CONVECTION...POCKETS OF HEATING ARE POSSIBLE IN CLOUD BREAKS. THIS WILL AUGMENT EFFECTS OF CONSIDERABLE MIDLEVEL ASCENT ON STEEPENING LAPSE RATES. THEREFORE...MERIDIONAL LOBE OF MLCAPE TO NEAR 500 J/KG IS POSSIBLE...DESPITE RELATIVELY COOL SFC TEMPS. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES STILL WILL BE FAVORABLE UNTIL PASSAGE OF SFC LOW...WITH 70-90 KT MIDLEVEL FLOW CONTRIBUTING TO VERY LONG DEEP-LAYER HODOGRAPHS AND 0-6 KM SHEARS EXCEEDING 75 KT. ..EDWARDS.. 04/01/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Apr 2 07:04:41 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 02 Apr 2005 02:04:41 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200504020703.j3273YYA026951@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 020702 SWODY2 SPC AC 020700 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0100 AM CST SAT APR 02 2005 VALID 031200Z - 041200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NNE DVL 30 W FAR 25 SE ABR 25 NNE PIR 20 W REJ 15 ENE SHR 35 WSW WRL 45 SSW BPI 25 WNW DPG 30 ENE U31 50 ESE RBL 30 SSW EKA. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR AIR MASS MODIFICATION ACROSS THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE DAY2 PERIOD. RETURN FLOW WILL BE ENHANCED BY LEE TROUGHING AS UPPER HEIGHTS FALL ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW/GREAT BASIN REGION. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR PACIFIC NW BENEATH THE UPPER TROUGH...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WHILE DOWNSTREAM WARM ADVECTION ACROSS ERN MT/WRN DAKOTAS WILL FAVOR LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITHIN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE/MOIST ENVIRONMENT. MARITIME AIR MASS WILL NOT BE ADVECTED INTO THIS REGION DURING THE DAY2 PERIOD THUS SEVERE PROBABILITIES WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 5 PERCENT. ..DARROW.. 04/02/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Apr 2 17:10:19 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 02 Apr 2005 12:10:19 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200504021709.j32H9E6P000510@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 021707 SWODY2 SPC AC 021706 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1106 AM CST SAT APR 02 2005 VALID 031200Z - 041200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 NNW GFK 30 W FAR ABR 25 N PIR 81V WRL BPI SLC U31 RBL 35 SSW EKA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PSM 30 NNW PWM BGR EPM. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... INTENSE CLOSED LOW OVER THE NERN UNITED STATES WILL BE EJECTED NEWD INTO NEW BRUNSWICK...AS A DEEPENING TROUGH DROPS SEWD INTO THE WRN U.S ALTHOUGH THE WRN U.S TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN THE LEESIDE TROUGH AND SLY FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS...DEEPER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RETURN WILL WAIT UNTIL AFTER THIS PERIOD. DESPITE LIMITED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS THE CONUS...CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE ME COAST AND ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW AND NRN ROCKIES/PLAINS. THE REST OF THE COUNTRY SHOULD BE TOO DRY AND STABLE FOR CONVECTION. ...ME... FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LESS THAN 50 J/KG OF MUCAPE AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL LOW...WITH NEARLY SATURATED VERTICAL TEMPERATURE PROFILES ABOVE A COOL AND STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION MAY PROVIDE SUFFICIENT LIFT FOR ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES OFFSHORE AND NEAR THE COASTLINE...WHERE THE WARMER OCEAN WATERS WOULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY MORE INSTABILITY. ...PACIFIC NW... SIGNIFICANT COOLING ALOFT AND LARGE SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH SHOULD STEEPEN LAPSE RATES AND RESULT IN WEAK INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD BE RESTRICTED MAINLY TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WHEN INSTABILITY WOULD BE MAXIMIZED. ...NRN PLAINS.. STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN A CAPPING INVERSION BETWEEN 750-850 MB. HOWEVER...WITH LAPSE RATES FORECAST TO BE NEAR 8.0C/KM ABOVE THE CAP...A 40-50 KT LOW LEVEL JET MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT FROM ERN MT EWD ACROSS ND AND NRN SD. ..IMY.. 04/02/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Apr 3 05:59:21 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 03 Apr 2005 00:59:21 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200504030558.j335wB7q007215@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 030555 SWODY2 SPC AC 030554 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1154 PM CST SAT APR 02 2005 VALID 041200Z - 051200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 E ELO 60 SSE DLH 15 SSE MSP 10 E OTG 25 SW YKN 30 N EAR 30 NNW DDC 35 N AMA 15 SE TCC 30 SW GNT 20 NW IGM 40 E BIH 30 SW NFL 75 SE 4LW 60 N BOI 35 N HVR. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST ERN PACIFIC MID LEVEL SPEED MAX WILL DIG ACROSS THE SRN GREAT BASIN INTO THE TX PANHANDLE LATE IN THE PERIOD WHERE H5 FLOW WILL LIKELY EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. OF PARTICULAR CONCERN FOR DEEP CONVECTION IS THE EXPECTED SLOW MODIFICATION OF MARITIME AIR MASS OVER THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE ABSENCE OF SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE SRN/CNTRL PLAINS. THIS PROCESS WILL NOT PROVE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG STORMS DURING THE DAY2 PERIOD ALONG/AHEAD OF DRY LINE/COLD FRONT FROM NEB...SOUTH. HOWEVER...FARTHER NORTH...MID LEVEL MOISTENING ACROSS THE CNTRL ROCKIES AND A SWLY DEEP LAYER TRAJECTORY WILL ENHANCE THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO POSSIBLY MN LATE IN THE PERIOD. IN ADDITION...ALTHOUGH MEAGER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL EXIST ACROSS THIS REGION A NARROW ZONE OF STEEP LAPSE RATES MAY PROVE ADEQUATE FOR A FEW HIGH BASED STORMS NEAR THE FRONT ACROSS SD INTO SCNTRL ND DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WARM ADVECTION SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY FORCING MECHANISM FOR EWD DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ..DARROW.. 04/03/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Apr 4 17:51:04 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 04 Apr 2005 12:51:04 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200504041749.j34Hnoou022790@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 041747 SWODY2 SPC AC 041746 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1246 PM CDT MON APR 04 2005 VALID 051200Z - 061200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW PRX 35 W MKO 25 SE PNC 20 SE P28 40 SE DDC 45 N DDC 15 W HLC 35 W EAR 15 SSE BUB 10 SW YKN 25 SW OTG 20 S FRM 20 W ALO 30 SE BRL 10 SE ALN MDH 30 SSW DYR 40 S GLH 50 WNW POE 40 W LFK 60 WSW TYR 25 WNW PRX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE HOU 40 S AUS 20 W TPL 20 NW DAL 40 E FSI 35 E CSM 55 SSW GAG 40 N AMA 10 SE CAO TAD COS 25 E FCL 25 S CDR 45 NE RAP 45 SW BIS 60 NNE BIS 25 N DVL 75 NNW GFK ...CONT... 45 W ART 10 NE ROC 40 SE BUF 25 N BFD 10 SW ERI 35 WNW CLE 30 E LAF 20 S HUF EVV 15 NE CKV 30 NNW HSV 20 E MSL 15 SSW MEI 35 ESE 7R4. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THE CNTRL U.S. FROM CNTRL/ERN KS/NEB/OK ACROSS A SMALL PART OF NERN TX AND NRN LA TO THE MS RIVER... ...SYNOPSIS... VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY MOVING OVER THE LWR CO RIVER VLY...IS FCST TO EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS BY EARLY TUESDAY. IN RESPONSE TO INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND STRONG MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING EAST FROM THE ROCKIES...LEE-SIDE CYCLONE WILL CONSOLIDATE OVER WRN KS BY EARLY IN THE PERIOD BEFORE TRACKING SLOWLY EAST AS AN OCCLUDED LOW. INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL FLOW BENEATH STRONG CAP ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS WILL ALLOW FOR EFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TRANSPORT NWD INTO THE CYCLONE CIRCULATION. THIS PROCESS WAS ALREADY UNDERWAY ACROSS TX/OK THIS MORNING WHERE LOW-MID 50S F SFC DEWPOINTS WERE COMMON. MORNING MODELS ARE CONTINUING A TREND OF BEING SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE TRACK OF THE MID LEVEL LOW. THIS SLOWER MOVEMENT SHOULD ALLOW FOR MODEST AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION DURING THE DAY TUESDAY BEFORE UPPER SYSTEM/SFC LOW AND DRYLINE MOVE EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS. ...OK/KS TO NEB/IA... WITH POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST MID 50S F SFC DEWPOINTS AS FAR NORTH AS NEB...AND STRONG MID LEVEL FORCING MAINTAINING STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...EXPECT WARM SECTOR DESTABILIZATION TO FUEL INCREASINGLY VIGOROUS TSTMS WITHIN LOW TO MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE FROM CNTRL KS TO NEB AND EAST TO IA. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WILL LIKELY FORM AND INCREASE NEAR LOW CENTER...ON THE KS/OK BORDER AREA...FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING. WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES ACROSS MUCH OF THIS REGION WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT MARGINAL DUE TO SLACK MID LEVEL FLOW NEAR THE LOW CENTER AND DEFORMATION AXIS...STRENGTH OF FORCING AND STEEP LAPSE RATES...COUPLED WITH BACKGROUND VORTICITY NEAR LOW CENTER...COULD SUPPORT A FEW SUPERCELLS EMBEDDED WITHIN LARGER ARC OF CONVECTION. LARGE HAIL AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THIS ACTIVITY. ...ERN OK/SERN KS ACROSS OZARKS TO MS VLY... MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE OVER ECNTRL OK BY LATE AFTERNOON. AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO BE MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND ORIENTATION OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTORS PERPENDICULAR TO THE LOW LEVEL FORCING WOULD SUGGEST INITIAL STORMS MAY BE DISCRETE SUPERCELLS. WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL RESULT IN A RELATIVELY HIGH LFC TO COUNTER TORNADO POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...LAPSE RATES AND SHEAR WILL SUPPORT LARGE HAIL AS WELL AS DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS. THIS ACTIVITY MAY EVOLVE INTO SHORT LINE SEGMENTS WHILE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE OZARKS THROUGH LATE EVENING. STRONG MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION AND 50-60KT MID LEVEL JET NOSING INTO THE BACK OF THE DRYLINE WOULD FURTHER SUPPORT THE EVOLUTION INTO A SQUALL LINE WITH DAMAGING WINDS SPREADING EAST TO THE MS RIVER THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. ..CARBIN.. 04/04/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Apr 7 04:52:47 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 06 Apr 2005 23:52:47 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200504070451.j374pWxk003024@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 070449 SWODY2 SPC AC 070448 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1148 PM CDT WED APR 06 2005 VALID 081200Z - 091200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW AQQ 35 SW TOI 35 SSE HSV 20 SW LOZ 25 NNE BKW 35 SW DCA 25 ENE SBY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 S EKA 45 S EKA 25 SSW SVE 15 WSW EKO 15 WSW MLD 25 NNW COD 65 N SHR 25 NE REJ 50 ENE CDR 25 SE FCL 35 SSE 4BL 35 E IGM 20 ENE DAG 40 WNW BFL MRY. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SERN U.S... SERN U.S. UPPER LOW WILL FILL SLOWLY AS IT SHIFTS EWD ACROSS GA THEN OFF THE SC COAST LATE IN THE PERIOD. VERTICAL SHEAR BENEATH THIS FEATURE WILL GRADUALLY WANE WHILE WLY FLOW DEEPENS ACROSS THE PENINSULA LESSENING WIND PROFILES FARTHER SOUTH. LATEST THINKING IS A SWD-SAGGING BAND OF CONVECTION...PARTIALLY ENHANCED BY VEERED LLJ...WILL STRETCH ACROSS SOUTH FL EARLY IN THE PERIOD. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD PROPAGATE OFFSHORE AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES EWD FORCING LARGE SCALE LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE INTO THE WRN ATLANTIC. MUCH OF THE FL PENINSULA NORTH OF THIS CONVECTION MAY HAVE DIFFICULTY CONVECTING LATER IN THE DAY...ALTHOUGH HEATING BENEATH THE UPPER LOW ACROSS GA MAY PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WEAK INSTABILITY BENEATH THE UPPER LOW AND MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL TO JUST A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR HAIL. CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTH FL EARLY IN THE PERIOD SHOULD BE MORE ORGANIZED BUT STORM MODE/ORIENTATION SUGGEST A LOW PROBABILITY FOR DAMAGING WINDS. ..DARROW.. 04/07/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Apr 7 17:23:03 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 07 Apr 2005 12:23:03 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200504071721.j37HLmOX017689@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 071710 SWODY2 SPC AC 071709 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1209 PM CDT THU APR 07 2005 VALID 081200Z - 091200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 N ONP 45 NE LMT 50 WNW WMC 40 NW ENV 60 WNW BPI 55 SW BIL 45 SW MLS 35 W REJ 35 NE CDR 55 W GLD 35 SSE ALS 50 NNE INW 40 SW LAS 25 WNW FAT 35 WSW UKI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE MOB 20 SSW TCL 45 NNE HSV 20 WSW LOZ 25 NNE BKW 35 SW DCA 25 ENE SBY. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...FL... AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS GA DURING THE DAY 2 PERIOD AS STRONG ASCENT SPREADS EWD ACROSS THE NRN FL PENINSULA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SFC HEATING AND 60+ SFC DEWPOINTS SHOULD RESULT IN LOCALLY MODERATE INSTABILITY. THIS COMBINED WITH THE STRONG LIFT SOUTHEAST OF THE UPPER-LOW SHOULD PROMOTE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY MIDDAY. STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE PRESENT SOUTH OF THE UPPER-LOW WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN ABOUT 30 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THIS COMBINED WITH COLD TEMPS ALOFT...UNIDIRECTIONAL LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A WIND DAMAGE OR HAIL THREAT FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE THREAT WILL BE DEPENDENT HOW MUCH INSTABILITY DEVELOPS AND HOW STRONG THE SHEAR IS FRIDAY ACROSS NRN AND CNTRL FL. FOR THIS REASON...AN UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK MAY BECOME NECESSARY IN LATER OUTLOOKS. ...GA/CAROLINAS... AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY FILL TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE LOW MOVES EWD ACROSS GA INTO THE ATLANTIC DURING THE DAY 2 PERIOD. STRONG LIFT AND COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LOW SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FRIDAY ACROSS THE SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS AND ATLANTIC COASTAL PLAINS. HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS DUE TO THE COLD AIR ALOFT ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE INSTABILITY IS LOCALLY MAXIMIZED. HOWEVER...RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR PROFILES SHOULD KEEP THE HAIL THREAT MARGINAL. ..BROYLES.. 04/07/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 8 05:46:42 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 08 Apr 2005 00:46:42 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200504080545.j385jT8l026323@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 080543 SWODY2 SPC AC 080542 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1242 AM CDT FRI APR 08 2005 VALID 091200Z - 101200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SW JMS GFK BJI STC MKT OMA 30 NW CNK MCK LBF ANW 9V9 60 SW JMS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 NW CMX AUW DBQ IRK SZL 35 NE CNU HUT LBL CAO 10 S LVS ABQ PRC LAS 45 N DRA 15 NE MLF BYI 45 NW SUN 27U DLN 10 NW WRL 35 SW RAP 10 ESE PHP DIK SDY 70 NNE OLF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS.... STRONG UPPER JET STREAK IS EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY EXTENDING ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL INTO EAST CENTRAL PACIFIC. AS IT NOSES EASTWARD THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...MODELS SUGGEST THIS FEATURE WILL BREAK DOWN INTO SERIES OF AMPLIFYING SHORT WAVE TROUGHS FROM THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC INTO THE ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS REGION OF THE U.S. ONE SHORT WAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER JET HAS ALREADY PROGRESSED INLAND ACROSS CALIFORNIA INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN. MODELS SUGGEST THIS IMPULSE WILL LIFT INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY 12Z SATURDAY...AS MORE VIGOROUS UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE DIGS ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC COAST INTO THE GREAT BASIN. LEAD SYSTEM IS THEN PROGGED TO PIVOT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAKOTAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BEFORE EVENTUALLY EVOLVING INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY EARLY SUNDAY. THIS WILL OCCUR AS UPSTREAM SYSTEM ALSO EVOLVES INTO A CLOSED LOW WHILE PROGRESSING ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL ROCKIES. IN RESPONSE TO EVOLVING UPPER PATTERN...DEEP SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS BY EARLY SATURDAY. PRIMARY SURFACE CYCLONE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL ONLY PROGRESS SLOWLY ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTAS. HOWEVER...MODELS SUGGEST SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS MAY COMMENCE ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO AS EARLY AS SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE CONTINUING ACROSS THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. DESPITE VERY FAVORABLE SYNOPTIC PATTERN...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL APPEARS LIKELY TO REMAIN RATHER LIMITED THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. LACK OF RETURN FLOW FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO/LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY REGION WILL BE PRIMARY MITIGATING FACTOR. BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THIS REGION WILL STILL BE IN RECOVERY PROCESS IN WAKE OF VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH EXITING THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST REGION. HOWEVER...MODELS DO SUGGEST LINGERING MOISTURE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT...GIVEN STRONG LIFT/STEEPENING LAPSE RATES...TO SUPPORT SOME SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THE PLAINS SATURDAY. PRIMARY THREAT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... WHERE INHIBITION WILL BE WEAKEST DUE TO MID-LEVEL COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH. ...NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH/LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AXIS CURVING ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH THE EASTERN DAKOTAS BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON APPEARS LIKELY TO BECOME FOCUS FOR MAXIMUM DESTABILIZATION. DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD EVOLVE THROUGH THE DAY ALONG THIS AXIS...WITH CAPE OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG EXPECTED BY PEAK HEATING. ENHANCED CONVERGENCE NEAR DRY LINE/TROUGH INTERSECTION ACROSS CENTRAL OR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA MAY PROVIDE STRONGEST FORCING FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...WITH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE/WARM ADVECTION ALONG/EAST OF INSTABILITY AXIS LIKELY TO SUPPORT ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY NORTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES AND ONLY MODERATELY STRONG SOUTHERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL LIMIT SHEAR...BUT THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO HAIL/WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING SEVERE LIMITS. SEVERE THREAT SHOULD END FAIRLY EARLY SATURDAY EVENING AS SURFACE-BASED STORMS DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING...BUT ADDITIONAL STORMS...PERHAPS WITH SOME HAIL...MAY DEVELOP EASTWARD IN WARM ADVECTION REGIME ACROSS PARTS OF MINNESOTA/IOWA. AS STRONG JET STREAK BEGINS TO DEVELOP EAST OF SOUTHERN ROCKIES CLOSED LOW SATURDAY NIGHT...MID/UPPER FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WILL BECOME FOCUSED ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN KANSAS INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. IN CONJUNCTION WITH LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION NORTH/EAST OF DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW...ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...LATEST MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST FORCING MAY NOT BE SUFFICIENT TO OVERCOME CAP GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN. ..KERR.. 04/08/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 8 17:16:22 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 08 Apr 2005 12:16:22 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200504081715.j38HF6PI005091@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 081712 SWODY2 SPC AC 081711 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1211 PM CDT FRI APR 08 2005 VALID 091200Z - 101200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW RSL 45 SSW HLC 35 WSW HLC 15 SSE MCK 30 NW GRI 30 NNE OFK 30 WNW OTG 30 WSW MKT 20 NNE MCW 35 WSW ALO 20 SE DSM 15 NE STJ 30 E SLN 15 SSW RSL. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NNE DVL 45 NW GFK 45 SW GFK 20 NE JMS 45 ENE BIS 40 E ISN 55 N ISN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE ELO 45 SW IWD 30 NNW DBQ 35 E IRK 25 SW SZL 25 N PNC 25 SW DHT 35 N SOW PRC 40 NW IGM 35 SSW P38 60 E ELY 55 SSE TWF 30 N SUN 20 ESE 27U 15 SE DLN WRL 50 WSW RAP 30 NE RAP 30 SSW Y22 10 WSW SDY 70 NNE OLF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF ND... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...NRN PLAINS... A WELL-DEVELOPED UPPER-TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD INTO THE ROCKIES BY THE DAY 2 PERIOD AS AN UPPER-LOW EMBEDDED IN THE TROUGH CLOSES OFF OVER THE NRN PLAINS. STRONG ASCENT WITH THE UPPER-LOW SHOULD SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS ND SATURDAY. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE MOST WIDESPREAD EAST AND NORTH OF A SFC LOW THAT IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF NWRN ND. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THIS AREA BY 00Z SUN SHOW A RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER. HOWEVER...THE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL FORCING COMBINED WITH COLD TEMPS ALOFT AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD RESULT IN HAIL POTENTIAL WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. THE STORMS SHOULD TRACK NNEWD ACROSS ND DURING THE AFTERNOON REACHING SRN CANADA BY THE EVENING HOURS. ...CNTRL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... A COLD FRONT WILL ORGANIZE AND MOVE SWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS WITH A DRYLINE IN PLACE FROM ERN NEB EXTENDING SSWWD INTO CNTRL KS. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S F AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE ALONG WITH SFC HEATING MAY INITIATE ISOLATED STORMS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN NEB OR NCNTRL KS. STORM COVERAGE SHOULD EXPAND AFTER DARK AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT INCREASES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THE CONVECTION SHOULD ORGANIZE ALONG THE FRONT AND EXPAND NNEWD INTO SERN NEB AND IA. A NNEWD STORM MOTION SHOWN BY FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS THE CONVECTION WOULD QUICKLY BECOMING ELEVATED BEHIND THE FRONT. IN ADDITION...06Z FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH SUFFICIENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY FOR SEVERE STORMS. THE MAIN THREAT WILL LIKELY BE HAIL DUE TO THE STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ELEVATED NATURE OF THE STORMS. ..BROYLES.. 04/08/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 8 17:22:32 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 08 Apr 2005 12:22:32 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200504081721.j38HLHXE010816@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 081717 SWODY2 SPC AC 081716 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1216 PM CDT FRI APR 08 2005 VALID 091200Z - 101200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW RSL 45 SSW HLC 35 WSW HLC 15 SSE MCK 30 NW GRI 30 NNE OFK 30 WNW OTG 30 WSW MKT 20 NNE MCW 35 WSW ALO 20 SE DSM 15 NE STJ 30 E SLN 15 SSW RSL. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NNE DVL 45 NW GFK 45 SW GFK 20 NE JMS 45 ENE BIS 40 E ISN 55 N ISN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE ELO 45 SW IWD 30 NNW DBQ 35 E IRK 25 SW SZL 25 N PNC 25 SW DHT 35 N SOW PRC 40 NW IGM 35 SSW P38 60 E ELY 55 SSE TWF 30 N SUN 20 ESE 27U 15 SE DLN WRL 50 WSW RAP 30 NE RAP 30 SSW Y22 10 WSW SDY 70 NNE OLF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF ND... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...NRN PLAINS... A WELL-DEVELOPED UPPER-TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD INTO THE ROCKIES BY THE DAY 2 PERIOD AS AN UPPER-LOW EMBEDDED IN THE TROUGH CLOSES OFF OVER THE NRN PLAINS. STRONG ASCENT WITH THE UPPER-LOW SHOULD SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS ND SATURDAY. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE MOST WIDESPREAD EAST AND NORTH OF A SFC LOW THAT IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF NWRN ND. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THIS AREA BY 00Z SUN SHOW A RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER. HOWEVER...THE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL FORCING COMBINED WITH COLD TEMPS ALOFT AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD RESULT IN HAIL POTENTIAL WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. THE STORMS SHOULD TRACK NNEWD ACROSS ND DURING THE AFTERNOON REACHING SRN CANADA BY THE EVENING HOURS. ...CNTRL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... A COLD FRONT WILL ORGANIZE AND MOVE SWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS WITH A DRYLINE IN PLACE FROM ERN NEB EXTENDING SSWWD INTO CNTRL KS. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S F AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE ALONG WITH SFC HEATING MAY INITIATE ISOLATED STORMS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN NEB OR NCNTRL KS. STORM COVERAGE SHOULD EXPAND AFTER DARK AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT INCREASES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THE CONVECTION SHOULD ORGANIZE ALONG THE FRONT AND EXPAND NNEWD INTO SERN NEB AND IA. A NNEWD STORM MOTION SHOWN BY FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS THE CONVECTION WOULD QUICKLY BECOMING ELEVATED BEHIND THE FRONT. IN ADDITION...06Z FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH SUFFICIENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY FOR SEVERE STORMS. THE MAIN THREAT WILL LIKELY BE HAIL DUE TO THE STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ELEVATED NATURE OF THE STORMS. ..BROYLES.. 04/08/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Apr 16 04:55:09 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 15 Apr 2005 23:55:09 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200504160453.j3G4rS32017651@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 160451 SWODY2 SPC AC 160450 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1150 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2005 VALID 171200Z - 181200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE ALM 25 WNW 4CR 20 NW LVS 45 SE RTN 30 SE DHT PVW 20 NNW MAF 40 SSE CNM 35 SE ALM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE DMN 30 SW ABQ 60 W PUB 50 E FCL 40 ENE CDR 30 SSE 9V9 30 S SUX 45 SE SLN 20 NNW FSI 40 NNE SJT DRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNE OLF 50 WNW MLS 45 S BIL 20 W WEY 45 NE 27U 10 SSW 3DU 60 SSW CTB 40 NW CTB. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN MN THROUGH PARTS OF W TX... ...CNTRL AND ERN NM THROUGH W TX AND THE TX/OK PANHANDLES... SELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL MAINTAIN PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OF W TX AND NM THROUGH SUNDAY...DOWNSTREAM FROM A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER SRN CA. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH NM SUNDAY AND INTO THE SRN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL PERSIST ABOVE THE MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...CONTRIBUTING TO MAXIMUM MLCAPES FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG WHERE SURFACE HEATING DEVELOPS. A 35 TO 40 KT SLY LOW LEVEL JET MAY HELP SUSTAIN STORMS FROM ERN NM THROUGH W TX INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD DESTABILIZE UPSTREAM IN THE WAKE OF THIS ACTIVITY WITH NEW STORMS LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NM. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE ENHANCED BY A MODEST MID LEVEL JET ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ABOVE SELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW. SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE. ACTIVITY MAY CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE OR MORE STORM CLUSTERS AS IT SPREADS EWD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OF NM...W TX AND WRN OK DURING THE EVENING...SUPPORTED BY AN INTENSIFYING SLY LOW LEVEL JET. ...CNTRL PLAINS... OTHER MORE ISOLATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP FARTHER NWD THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS...MAINLY ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF THE MOIST AXIS WHERE DEEPER MIXING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO WEAKEN CAP. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE WEAK. HOWEVER...HIGH BASED STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. ..DIAL.. 04/16/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Apr 16 17:06:30 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 16 Apr 2005 12:06:30 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200504161704.j3GH4lIC032244@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 161702 SWODY2 SPC AC 161701 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1201 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2005 VALID 171200Z - 181200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N HOB 30 ESE ROW 35 WSW ROW 50 SSE 4CR 45 N 4CR 20 N LVS 35 ENE RTN 35 NE CAO 25 NW AMA 35 W PVW 40 N HOB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE DMN 20 ENE GNT DRO 45 SW MTJ 15 N GJT 35 E CAG 40 ENE CYS 50 E CDR 20 SW PIR 45 WNW HON 50 ENE ATY 45 NNE MSP GRB 25 NNE BEH 20 S FWA 10 ENE IND 20 NW DNV 35 NE MLI 15 S ALO 55 SW FOD 25 W OMA 45 SSW P28 55 WSW ABI 35 ESE P07. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W BZN 20 SE MQM 35 SSE TWF 20 WNW EKO 75 NNW WMC 40 ESE BNO 20 SSE BKE 15 NNE S80 35 NW MSO 45 NNE 3DU 25 W BZN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW REGIME EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD AND PAC NW TROUGH DIGS SEWD INTO THE GREAT BASIN. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK FRONT THAT DROPPED SEWD OVERNIGHT IN WAKE OF AN IMPULSE NOW CROSSING THE UPPER MS VLY...WILL RETURN NWD ON SUNDAY. LEE-TROUGH ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND INTENSIFY AS UPSTREAM HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT TROUGH. BOTH THE WARM FRONT AND LEE-TROUGH WILL BE THE FOCI FOR TSTMS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. ...SRN HIGH PLAINS... BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO MOISTEN ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...VIA BOTH RETURN FLOW AND RECYCLED MOISTURE FROM NIGHTLY TSTM CLUSTERS. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...50-55F SURFACE DEW POINTS SHOULD BE COMMON ACROSS THE NM HIGH PLAINS BENEATH STEEP MID-TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES. ANY MORNING LOW-CLOUDS SHOULD DISSOLVE...ALLOWING THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS BOUNDARY LAYERS TO DESTABILIZE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TSTMS SHOULD INITIATE ALONG THE HIGHER NM MOUNTAINS AS WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE UPSLOPE FLOW IS ENHANCED BY DIFFERENTIAL HEATING. VENTING OF THE MID-UPPER LEVELS COULD BE AIDED BY A WEAK IMPULSE /NOW OVER NWRN AZ/ EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS NM SUNDAY AFTERNOON... CREATING AN ENVIRONMENT SLIGHTLY MORE CONDUCIVE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION. MOREOVER...30-35 KT H5 WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE ATOP 10-15 KTS OF SELY FLOW WILL AUGMENT THE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILE SUFFICIENTLY TO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS. STORMS WILL PROBABLY GROW STRONGER ON THE ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREAT. ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD EWD TOWARD THE OK/TX PNHDLS LATER SUNDAY EVENING AS THE AXIS OF THE LLJ DEVELOPS FROM NWRN TX TO THE CNTRL PLAINS. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD TRANSITION INTO MAINLY A HIGH WIND THREAT AS STORMS COALESCE INTO CLUSTERS/LINE SEGMENTS. ...CNTRL PLAINS... TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN STRENGTHENING LOW/MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. A CLUSTER OR TWO OF STORMS MAY EVOLVE FROM THE EXPECTED SRN HIGH PLAINS ACTIVITY SUNDAY EVENING AND DEVELOP/MOVE NEWD INTO WRN KS...CNTRL NEB AND SCNTRL SD BY 12Z MONDAY. ISOLD LARGE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS. ...UPPER MS VLY/MIDWEST... A FEW TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG/N OF THE H5 RIDGE AXIS AND SURFACE WARM FRONT FROM THE UPPER MS VLY SEWD TO THE MIDWEST SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGHEST PROBABILITIES WILL EXIST SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE UPPER MS VLY. ATTM...SEVERE PROBABILITIES WILL REMAIN SUB-FIVE PERCENT GIVEN LACK OF SUBSTANTIAL INSTABILITY. ...NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/NRN ROCKIES... AS STEEPER LAPSE RATES SPREAD EWD ALONG/N OF A 55-60 KT CYCLONIC JET...SPORADIC TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. HIGHEST TSTM PROBABILITIES SHOULD EXIST ACROSS ERN ORE AND WRN ID DURING SUNDAY EVENING. ..RACY.. 04/16/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Apr 17 05:38:16 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 17 Apr 2005 00:38:16 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200504170536.j3H5aXA7007765@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 170534 SWODY2 SPC AC 170533 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1233 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2005 VALID 181200Z - 191200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSW P07 25 ESE HOB 45 ENE CVS 20 N DHT 45 ESE LAA 25 WNW GCK 10 NE GCK 15 SSW DDC 30 WNW CSM 35 W SPS 30 N BWD 30 E JCT 60 W COT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NE MQT 20 SSW MTW 45 W MMO 10 NW UIN 35 ESE OJC 20 SSW PNC 20 S OKC 35 NNW DAL 20 SSE ACT 45 ESE SAT 55 SSE LRD ...CONT... 50 SW MRF 35 S CNM 50 NNE ROW 45 SE RTN 50 NNW LAA 25 NW AKO CYS 45 NNW CAG 40 NE PUC 25 SSW DPG 45 SSW TWF 45 W SUN 35 ESE 27U 30 ESE LVM 30 SE MLS 40 S P24 80 NNW GFK. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE NWRN STATES THROUGH MONDAY...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES S THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES AND NRN PLAINS. LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE SWRN U.S. IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS EARLY MONDAY...THEN ADVANCE NEWD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT. SERIES OF WEAKER IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SRN STREAM MAY ALSO AFFECT PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS THIS PERIOD. THE DRYLINE WILL BECOME BETTER DEFINED OVER THE CNTRL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. ...CNTRL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS... PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SERN U.S. WILL MAINTAIN OFFSHORE FLOW AND INFLUX OF CP AIR INTO MUCH OF THE NERN GULF. MOISTURE RETURN WILL THEREFORE REMAIN LIMITED E OF DRYLINE WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S BENEATH STEEP LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER. MAXIMUM MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM W TX THROUGH WRN AND CNTRL KS MONDAY AFTERNOON. PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION. PORTIONS OF THIS AREA WILL BE INFLUENCED BY SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN WAKE OF LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS AND PRESENCE OF CAP MAY SERVE AS A LIMITING FACTORS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MONDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE SHORTWAVE RIDGING SHOULD BE MORE PRONOUNCED ACROSS KS WITH A FLATTER HIGH FIELD AND POTENTIAL FOR WEAK SRN STREAM IMPULSES FARTHER S INTO TX. THEREFORE...INITIATION MAY BE MORE PROBABLE OVER PARTS OF W TX. MOREOVER...A BAND OF STRONGER MID-UPPER FLOW EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SRN STREAM WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STRONGER VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES OVER PARTS OF TX. ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE DRYLINE FROM WRN KS SWD INTO W TX AS IT MIXES EWD DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SUPERCELLS WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. ...NRN PLAINS THROUGH UPPER MS VALLEY... PRESENCE OF STRONG CAP MAY LIMIT OR DELAY INITIATION IN THIS AREA UNTIL EVENING WHEN STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING SHOULD ENHANCE LIFT ALONG AND N OF THE BOUNDARY. MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY COULD BE ELEVATED IN THE POST FRONTAL REGION WHERE CAP SHOULD BE WEAKER WITHIN ZONE OF DEEPER LIFTING. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES APPEAR SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND AS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS SEWD DURING THE EVENING. PORTIONS OF THIS AREA MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO SLIGHT RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS. ...ERN KS AND NEB THROUGH NRN MO AND IA... ELEVATED STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ALONG AND E OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH KS EARLY MONDAY. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY IF INSTABILITY IS GREATER THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER... CLOUDS AND RAIN ACCOMPANYING THIS FEATURE MAY LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT DESTABILIZATION DURING THE DAY...AND ACTIVITY MAY REMAIN ELEVATED AS IT DEVELOPS EAST AWAY FROM THE EML. GIVEN EXPECTED WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR AND POTENTIAL FOR LIMITED INSTABILITY...ONLY LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES APPEAR WARRANTED AT THIS TIME. ..DIAL.. 04/17/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Apr 17 17:01:48 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 17 Apr 2005 12:01:48 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200504171700.j3HH04Aj023270@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 171657 SWODY2 SPC AC 171656 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1156 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2005 VALID 181200Z - 191200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E INK 35 W LBB 40 NNE CAO 10 SE GLD 15 SW HLC 40 S RSL 35 WNW LTS 40 NNE SJT 60 SE MAF 30 E INK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NE MQT 20 SSW MTW 20 NNW MMO 10 E ALN 15 SSE TBN 25 W BVO 30 WNW OKC 30 E SPS 10 SE TPL 10 NE NIR 20 WNW MFE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 S MRF 35 NW INK 25 SW TCC 35 SSE LHX 35 ESE AKO 55 SE CYS 25 SSW LAR 20 N CAG 40 S VEL 25 ENE U24 35 SE EKO 60 NW WMC 60 N 4LW 25 W EAT 65 NW 4OM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NE CTB 45 WNW 3HT 20 NNW COD 30 E WRL 15 NW GCC 45 N REJ 60 N DVL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND MOVE EWD AS HEIGHTS FALL ACROSS THE WRN CONUS THIS PERIOD. SEVERAL LOW-AMPLITUDE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL EJECT NEWD FROM OFF BAJA INTO THE PLAINS... BUT TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF EACH WAVE WILL BE DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE. AT THE SURFACE...DRYLINE/LEE-TROUGH WILL DIURNALLY OSCILLATE ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS. A STRONG COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A PAC NW TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE INTO THE NRN PLAINS...CNTRL ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN REGIONS BY LATE MONDAY. ...CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS... A CONDITIONAL SLGT RISK WILL BE PARTIALLY MAINTAINED FROM PREVIOUS FCST. BOUNDARY LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN ALONG/AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE/LEE-TROUGH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON BENEATH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS WILL LEAD TO A POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ALONG THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS. POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTORS FOR SEVERE TSTMS WILL EXIST...HOWEVER. FIRST...THERE WILL LIKELY BE LARGE SCALE H5 RIDGING IN WAKE OF A DEPARTING IMPULSE THAT WILL MOVE TOWARD THE CORN BELT MONDAY MORNING. H5 FLOW DOES BECOME SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC AGAIN BY EVENING...OWING TO THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER LOW-AMPLITUDE TROUGH /NOW OFF BAJA/...BUT TIMING COINCIDENT WITH PEAK HEATING IS IN QUESTION. MOREOVER...FARTHER S...THERE IS APT TO BE A CI/CS CLOUD CANOPY AS THE SUB-TROPICAL JET BOWS NWD AHEAD OF THE DIGGING TROUGH. THUS...INSOLATION WILL BE IN QUESTION ACROSS SWRN TX. LASTLY...VERTICAL SHEAR WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...LESS THAN 30 KTS...THOUGH MODELS MAY BE UNDERPLAYING MAGNITUDE OF FLOW TIED TO THE LOW-AMPLITUDE TROUGHS. WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...IT APPEARS THAT HEATING WILL BE A LARGE DRIVING FACTOR TO POTENTIALLY INITIATE STORMS ALONG THE DRYLINE FROM WRN KS TO THE LOW-ROLLING PLAINS OF W TX. DESPITE THE WEAK FLOW...INSTABILITY/LAPSE RATES MAY COMPENSATE AND...GIVEN A STORM... LARGE HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THUS...A CONDITIONAL SLGT RISK WILL BE PARTIALLY MAINTAINED. ...ERN PARTS OF CNTRL PLAINS TO UPPER MS VLY... CLUSTERS OF TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING ACROSS ERN NEB/KS EARLY IN THE PERIOD...ALONG THE NOSE OF H85 JET AND AHEAD OF H5 TROUGH. CLOUD DEBRIS SPREADING DOWNSTREAM INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL LIMIT DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE CORN BELT AND UPPER MS VLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. QUESTION REMAINS IF ELEVATED INSTABILITY /I.E. PARCELS BEING FED FROM UPSTREAM INSTABILITY AXIS/ WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT HAIL. THUS...SUB-CATEGORICAL SLGT RISK SEVERE PROBABILITIES WILL CONTINUE. ...NRN PLAINS... A STOUT CAP WILL LIKELY DELAY TSTM INITIATION ALONG THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. MORE LIKELY SCENARIO WILL BE FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP AFTER DARK AND TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT AS THE LLJ STRENGTHENS AND THE FRONT BECOMES STRONGER. ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND INCREASING POST-FRONTAL EFFECTIVE VERTICAL SHEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLD LARGE HAIL...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE DAKS. ..RACY.. 04/17/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Apr 18 06:36:45 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 18 Apr 2005 01:36:45 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200504180647.j3I6l95m012655@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 180645 SWODY2 SPC AC 180644 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0144 AM CDT MON APR 18 2005 VALID 191200Z - 201200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSW HSI 30 SW MCK AKO 25 NW FCL 30 E RWL 15 E CPR 55 NW CDR 25 E PHP 25 WNW HON 20 NNW RWF 40 E MSP 30 W GRB 30 NW MKE 45 SW RFD 30 NNW BRL 15 NE LWD 25 ENE BIE 50 SSW HSI. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE P07 45 S BGS 40 NNW CDS 30 ENE LBL 25 NE DDC 35 W HUT 25 WNW PNC 20 NE SPS 45 SSE BWD 20 S HDO 15 WNW LRD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE OAJ 30 NNW SOP 30 WSW BLF 50 ESE LUK 40 ESE LAF 45 ENE UIN 15 SSE SZL 20 SE FYV 15 NE ELD 40 SW JAN 45 WNW GPT BVE ...CONT... 20 SSW P07 45 S LBB 20 E AMA 30 ESE EHA 45 SSW GLD 30 SW DEN 30 NE U17 SGU 40 S TPH 55 S NFL 65 NW LOL 65 SE BNO 40 SW 27U 50 SE LVM 20 WSW SHR 15 NNW 81V 50 WNW ABR 25 NE IWD 45 NNW ANJ ...CONT... 10 WSW BUF 15 SSE ELM 25 NNW TTN 30 SSE NEL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE CNTRL AND NRN PLAINS THROUGH UPPER MS VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO CUTOFF OVER THE WRN STATES TUESDAY...AND MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD A SLOWER SWD PROGRESSION OF COLD FRONT NOW EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT BASIN NEWD INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS OF MT. THE FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY SWWD THROUGH WRN NEB EARLY TUESDAY...BUT MOVE ONLY SLOWLY SWD THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. THE DRYLINE SHOULD EXTEND FROM A LEE LOW OVER NERN CO...SWD THROUGH THE CNTRL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL MIX EWD INTO WRN KS AND WRN TX TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ...SERN WY THROUGH SRN SD AND NEB... DEVELOPING ELY COMPONENT IN POST FRONTAL ZONE N OF SURFACE LOW SHOULD MAINTAIN AXIS OF MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 FROM PARTS OF SERN WY...EWD THROUGH SRN SD AND NEB. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL PERSIST ABOVE THE LOW LEVEL MOIST AXIS AND CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITHIN ZONE OF INCREASING UPSLOPE FLOW OVER ERN WY AND FARTHER EAST ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT. SSWLY UPPER FLOW SUGGESTS STORMS WILL LIKELY CROSS INTO THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. STRONGEST EFFECTIVE VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED FROM PARTS OF ERN WY INTO WRN NEB WHERE STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW ON ERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL EXIST. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE INITIAL MAIN THREAT. ANY TORNADO THREAT IS CONDITIONAL UPON THE DEGREE OF BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY WHERE STRONG LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL EXIST OVER WRN NEB AND SERN WY. THE THREATS SHOULD TRANSITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES AND STORMS CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE OR MORE MCSS. ...UPPER MS VALLEY THROUGH WRN GREAT LAKES AREA... LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER KS WILL CONTINUE NEWD AND INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY EARLY TUESDAY. A CLUSTER OF MOSTLY ELEVATED STORMS MAY BE ONGOING TUESDAY MORNING AND SOME POTENTIAL FOR INTENSIFICATION WILL EXIST AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE WILL ALSO HELP MAINTAIN A BRANCH OF THE SLY LOW LEVEL JET NEWD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND WRN GREAT LAKES WHERE ENHANCED LIFT IN VICINITY OF A SWD MOVING FRONT SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. DEEP VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MODEST...BUT THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT COULD BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. ...CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS... GIVEN LIMITING FACTORS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION...THREAT IS MORE CONDITIONAL IN THIS AREA. SWLY FLOW IN THE 2-3 KM LAYER WILL MAINTAIN PLUME OF WARM AIR ABOVE THE MOIST AXIS WHERE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WILL EXIST. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY...BUT MAY ALSO RESULT IN A PRONOUNCED CAP OVER MUCH OF THE CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS E OF THE DRYLINE. WEAK UPPER RIDGING WILL ALSO DEVELOP DOWNSTREAM FROM AMPLIFYING WRN U.S. UPPER LOW. FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO DRYLINE MIXING AND CONVERGENCE AS WELL AS ANY ENHANCEMENT ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SRN BRANCH. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG CAP AND WEAK LARGE SCALE FORCING...ONLY ISOLATED STORMS AT BEST ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE DRYLINE. LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY STORMS THAT MANAGE TO DEVELOP. ..DIAL.. 04/18/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Apr 19 06:04:38 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 19 Apr 2005 01:04:38 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200504190614.j3J6EwUu010077@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 190611 SWODY2 SPC AC 190609 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0109 AM CDT TUE APR 19 2005 VALID 201200Z - 211200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSE P07 15 WSW BGS 45 E LBB 15 NE GAG 20 N DDC 40 SSW GLD 45 ENE DEN 30 ENE CYS 15 S CDR 25 N MHN 30 WNW OMA 25 WSW BRL LAF 20 WSW MFD 15 SW ZZV 20 ENE HTS JKL 50 ENE BWG 15 E PAH 45 ESE SGF 30 SE CNU 10 W TUL 25 NNE FTW 35 NW TPL 20 NNW SAT 10 N LRD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NE ORF 45 SE LYH 25 W AVL 15 SW CHA 25 N TCL 20 NNW LUL 20 SSE HUM ...CONT... 45 SW P07 40 NW BGS 30 W GAG 30 SW DDC 10 E LAA 35 SW LIC MTJ 30 W 4HV 60 E ELY 30 NNE EKO 45 ENE BOI 20 E 27U 15 SW BIL 40 WNW REJ 15 ESE PIR 20 E SPW 40 WSW LNR 35 NE MKE OSC. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY AND OH VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... CUTOFF UPPER LOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE WRN STATES WEDNESDAY. A STRONG JET STREAK MOVING SEWD INTO THE BASE OF THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO EJECT NEWD INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER CNTRL CANADA MOVING OVER CREST OF UPPER RIDGE WILL DROP SEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND NERN U.S. WITH ATTENDANT AMPLIFICATION OF UPPER TROUGH. THIS PROCESS WILL HELP DRIVE A COLD FRONT SEWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY...NERN U.S. AND MID ATLANTIC DURING THE DAY...WHILE WRN PORTIONS OF THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL WITHIN THE DEEP LAYER SLY FLOW REGIME OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS DOWNSTREAM FROM CUTOFF LOW. ...CNTRL PLAINS... NELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO ELY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EWD TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL PERSIST NEAR STALLED FRONT OVER NRN KS/SRN NEB...WITH UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 ADVECTING WWD THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SURFACE HEATING SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY FROM KS NWD INTO SRN NEB. PRESENCE OF CAP AND UPPER RIDGE WITH ONLY WEAK FRONTAL CONVERGENCE SUGGEST STORM INITIATION MAY BE LIMITED DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER...FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING AS THE STRONG JET STREAK EJECTS NEWD INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS ACCOMPANIED BY STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET...WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE LIFT ALONG AND N OF THE FRONT FROM PARTS OF NERN CO...NRN KS INTO NEB. PRESENCE OF THE UPPER JET WILL ALSO ENHANCE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE BOUNDARY WHERE ELY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST. SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. A WINDOW MAY ALSO EXIST FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO AS STORMS CROSS THE BOUNDARY...BUT ACTIVITY SHOULD BECOME ELEVATED AS IT MOVES DEEPER INTO THE COOLER AIR. ...MID MS VALLEY THROUGH OH VALLEY... THE RETURN OF PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR UNDERNEATH STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY IN PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR OVER THE MS VALLEY. MORE MARGINAL INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED FARTHER EAST INTO THE OH VALLEY WHERE WEAKER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL EXIST. STORMS MAY BE ONGOING ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY...BUT SHOULD INTENSIFY AS THEY DEVELOP SWD TOWARD INCREASING INSTABILITY. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND IS EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY. FARTHER W OVER THE MID MS VALLEY...PRESENCE OF STRONGER CAP MAY DELAY INITIATION UNTIL MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. SUFFICIENT SHEAR AND INSTABILITY IS FORECAST IN THIS AREA TO SUPPORT A THREAT OF SUPERCELLS AS THE INITIAL MODE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND POSSIBLE. HOWEVER ACTIVITY MAY CONGEAL INTO AN MCS DURING THE EVENING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. ...SRN PLAINS... THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE E OF DRYLINE FROM PARTS OF TX NWD THROUGH OK AND KS. STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS IT MIXES EWD. HOWEVER...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WEAK DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SRN BRANCH OF THE WLYS...LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE RATHER WEAK. THIS AND LIKELY PRESENCE OF CAP SUGGEST ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. ...NERN U.S. THROUGH MID ATLANTIC... INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE LIMITED IN THIS AREA DUE TO WEAKER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DRYER BOUNDARY LAYERS. HOWEVER...MODERATELY STRONG KINEMATIC PROFILES ASSOCIATED WITH THE AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH AND DRY BOUNDARY LAYERS WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES MAY ENHANCE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AS STORMS ORGANIZE INTO LINES ALONG SWD MOVING COLD FRONT. THIS AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS. ..DIAL.. 04/19/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Apr 19 17:22:49 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 19 Apr 2005 12:22:49 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200504191733.j3JHX8iK031166@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 191731 SWODY2 SPC AC 191730 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1230 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2005 VALID 201200Z - 211200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW SYR MPV PSM BDL ABE HGR 25 NW HTS ALN JEF 45 SSW OJC ICT RSL HLC GLD AKO 50 W SNY BFF VTN YKN FOD ALO DBQ JVL MKG 55 NNE MTC. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CDS CSM OKC FTW 30 NNW HDO DRT 25 NW SJT CDS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE DOV CHO CSV 45 SSW BNA MSL 15 NE MEI 20 SE GPT ...CONT... 20 SSW P07 MAF DDC GCK 10 E LAA COS 10 ESE GUC BCE 50 SSE ELY OGD 20 N OWY BKE 3DU RAP 15 ESE PIR HON FRM OSH APN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS WED/WED NIGHT FROM PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST INTO THE MID MS/LWR OH VALLEYS.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS.... BLOCK PERSISTS IN LARGE-SCALE PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA...AND MODELS SUGGEST THIS WILL BECOME MORE PROMINENT LATER TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE IS ALREADY EVIDENT IN LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. CENTER OF THIS FEATURE MAY SHIFT A BIT FURTHER EAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES...AND AN AMPLIFYING DOWNSTREAM TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CANADIAN PROVINCES/GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN STATES. TO THE SOUTH OF UPPER RIDGE...CLOSED LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...WITH MOVEMENT ONLY IN RESPONSE TO SHORT WAVES ROTATING ITS CIRCULATION CENTER. ONE SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE IS PROGGED TO MIGRATE AROUND THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF LOW...ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL ROCKIES...EARLY IN THE PERIOD. ANOTHER IS FORECAST TO PROGRESSES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN/EASTERN PERIPHERY OF SYSTEM...ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS ...DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE IN A BROADENING SECTOR OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN U.S...ASSOCIATED WITH GULF MOISTURE RETURN AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ON WESTERN PERIPHERY OF RETREATING SURFACE RIDGE. THIS RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO INHIBIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OVER MUCH OF THE GULF STATES AND SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH EVOLVING UPPER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE NORTHEAST. ...NORTHEAST INTO LOWER OH/MID MS VALLEY... ASSOCIATED WITH AMPLIFYING NORTHEASTERN TROUGH...A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO SURGE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES/OHIO VALLEY AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. BAND OR BANDS OF CONVERGENCE DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THIS FRONT SHOULD PROVIDE FOCUS FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT... PARTICULARLY DURING THE MID AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS. WHILE STRONGER CAPE ASSOCIATED WITH STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE CONFINED TO SOUTHEAST IOWA/NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS/INDIANA AND PARTS OF WESTERN OHIO...STRONGER FLOW ON SOUTHERN FRINGE OF UPPER TROUGH WILL COMPENSATE FOR WEAKER INSTABILITY FARTHER EAST. LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE PRIMARY THREATS IN MOST VIGOROUS STORMS...WHICH SHOULD QUICKLY DEVELOP SOUTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF FRONT THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHEAST. UPSTREAM... IN DEFORMATION ZONE BETWEEN GREAT BASIN AND NORTHEASTERN UPPER SYSTEMS...SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO BE MUCH SLOWER...AND WILL BE SLOWER TO DIMINISH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ...CENTRAL PLAINS... UNCERTAINTY EXISTS CONCERNING EXTENT OF CONVECTION ONGOING EARLY IN THE PERIOD ASSOCIATED WITH INITIAL IMPULSE ROTATING AROUND GREAT BASIN LOW. HOWEVER...STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL PERSIST NEAR CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED FRONT VICINITY OF THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER...AND BOUNDARY SHOULD BECOME FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS AS FORCING INCREASES WITH APPROACH OF NEXT IMPULSE LATE WEDNESDAY/ WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALONG/JUST SOUTH OF FRONT...MODELS SUGGEST AIR MASS WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE...WITH CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG. THIS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS...AND SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS...WHICH WILL ENHANCE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL. UPSCALE EVOLUTION INTO LARGE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM ALSO APPEARS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH ONLY SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA/NORTHERN KANSAS. ...SOUTHERN PLAINS... INHIBITION SHOULD BECOME SUFFICIENTLY WEAK FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG DRY LINE...AT LEAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THIS APPEARS MOST LIKELY ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST TEXAS...ENHANCED BY DIFLUENT/ DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW REGIME BETWEEN JET STREAK PROPAGATING AROUND GREAT BASIN CLOSED LOW...AND SOUTHERN STREAM JET ALONG THE U.S./ MEXICAN BORDER. SHEAR LIKELY WILL NOT BE STRONG...BUT IT STILL SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WITH CAPE AS HIGH AS 2000 J/KG BY PEAK HEATING. ..KERR.. 04/19/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Apr 20 06:30:42 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 20 Apr 2005 01:30:42 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200504200640.j3K6ex3J003187@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 200638 SWODY2 SPC AC 200637 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0137 AM CDT WED APR 20 2005 VALID 211200Z - 221200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE P07 40 SW ABI 20 ESE LTS P28 25 NNW RSL 40 W EAR 35 SSW ANW 25 N ANW 20 S 9V9 25 W MHE 15 E MHE 35 W SPW 30 ESE FOD 20 WSW MLI 30 NNE CMI IND 40 W LUK 20 SW LEX 55 NNW CSV 10 SE BNA 30 N MSL 20 S UOX 35 SSW GLH 50 ESE SHV 55 ENE CLL 30 E SAT 50 NW LRD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE SAV 50 NW AYS 25 ESE DHN 20 S CEW ...CONT... 25 SSE P07 50 ENE BGS 30 WSW LTS 20 NE GAG 30 NNW DDC 20 E GLD 30 ESE AKO 40 ENE FCL 40 N LAR 55 N DGW 25 SW REJ 30 WSW MBG ATY 25 N MCW 30 W RFD 20 SSW FWA 15 N PKB 25 NW DCA 10 SSE ACY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE PUW 50 SSW MSO 20 S 27U SUN 35 NNW OWY 80 E 4LW 65 NNW 4LW 50 NNW RDM 20 SSW YKM 45 SE EPH 30 NE PUW. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS THROUGH THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MS VALLEY AND WRN TN VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... STRONG JET STREAK MOVING INTO BASE OF WRN U.S. UPPER LOW SHOULD EJECT NEWD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS EARLY THURSDAY. THIS FEATURE SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH NEB AND KS DURING THE DAY...THEN TURN SEWD TOWARD THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MS VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT AS IT MOVES OVER UPPER RIDGE CREST. ACCOMPANYING SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST OVER NEB EARLY THURSDAY WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT SWD THROUGH WRN KS AND THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL ADVANCE SE INTO THE MS VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL EXTEND SEWD FROM THE LOW THROUGH PARTS OF THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO A COLD FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC. THE DRYLINE WILL PERSIST FROM OK SWD INTO TX...BUT OK PORTION WILL BE OVERTAKEN BY THE SEWD MOVING COLD FRONT. ...ERN NEB...IA...KS...OK...MO AND KS... ELEVATED STORMS MAY BE ONGOING WITHIN ZONE OF ASCENT ALONG AND N OF FRONT OVER PARTS OF NEB AND MO AS WELL AS SWD ALONG PORTION OF FRONT IN NWRN KS. THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHERE STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL EXIST ABOVE LOW 60S DEWPOINTS. OTHER STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP FROM SERN NEB/NERN KS NEAR TRIPLE POINT WHERE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE ENHANCED IN DIVERGENT JET EXIT REGION. ACTIVITY SHOULD BUILD SWD ALONG COLD FRONT THROUGH KS AND OK DURING THE AFTERNOON. OTHER STORMS MAY INTENSIFY FARTHER SE WITHIN ZONE OF LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION OVER PARTS OF THE MS VALLEY. SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE INITIAL DOMINANT THREAT. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONSOLIDATE INTO AN MCS AS IT MOVES EWD INTO THE MS VALLEY...WITH THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING. THE LOW LEVEL JET IS NOT FORECAST TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG IN THE WARM SECTOR AND WILL LIMIT LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND HELICITY PARAMETERS. AT THIS TIME THE BEST CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO APPEARS TO BE OVER SERN NEB WHERE STRONGER LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL EXIST JUST E OF SURFACE LOW AND IN VICINITY OF WARM FRONT. ...WRN PORTIONS OF THE OH VALLEY AND TN VALLEY... COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SWD THROUGH KY DURING THE DAY. MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE FROM 1000 TO 2000 J/KG IS EXPECTED S OF THIS FRONT. SOME THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL WILL EXIST AS STORMS DEVELOP SWD ALONG THIS BOUNDARY DURING THE DAY. STORMS DEVELOPING FARTHER W OVER THE MID MS VALLEY MAY CONSOLIDATE INTO AN MCS OR TWO AND CONTINUE INTO WRN PARTS OF THE OH AND TN VALLEYS BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE LIMITED AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLER WITH ERN EXTENT INTO THE OH VALLEY. THESE MAY SERVE AS OVERALL LIMITING FACTORS FOR SEVERE WEATHER. HOWEVER...A SOMEWHAT REDUCED THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS STORMS SPREAD INTO THIS REGION OVERNIGHT. ...TX... FORCING FOR INITIATION ALONG THE DRYLINE WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...ESPECIALLY GIVEN FORECAST WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW WHICH WILL LIMIT DRYLINE CONVERGENCE. THIS AND EXPECTED CAP ASSOCIATED WITH THE EML LOWERS CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORM INITIATION. BEST CHANCES FOR DEVELOPMENT MAY BE OVER N TX AS THE FRONT MERGES WITH NRN PORTION OF THE DRYLINE. FARTHER S...WEAK DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SRN STREAM IF FAVORABLY TIMED...COULD ENHANCE CHANCES FOR INITIATION. IF STORMS MANAGE TO DEVELOP...VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES APPEAR AT LEAST MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THE MAIN THREATS. ...MID ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS... INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURE DEWPOINT SPREADS MAY SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND WITH STORMS DEVELOPING SWD ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE DAY FROM PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC INTO THE CAROLINAS. ..DIAL.. 04/20/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Apr 20 17:23:14 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 20 Apr 2005 12:23:14 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200504201733.j3KHXTF3010091@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 201731 SWODY2 SPC AC 201730 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1230 PM CDT WED APR 20 2005 VALID 211200Z - 221200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NW DRT 40 N SJT ADM 45 E ICT CNK 10 NW GRI 60 NNE BUB YKN 35 SSW OTG 35 W SPW ALO MMO DNV HUF 10 N EVV HOP TUP GWO 25 N ESF LFK SAT 50 NW LRD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE P07 50 ENE BGS SPS OKC ICT MCK BFF 50 SW RAP 60 ESE REJ MBG RST SBN CMH ZZV MRB DOV 30 S ACY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM EAT GEG 27U SUN OWY 4LW EUG OLM SEA EAT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THU/THU NIGHT FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.... MODELS INDICATE THAT BLOCKING PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD AND BEYOND. HOWEVER...UPPER HIGH CENTER AND CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND INTERMOUNTAIN U.S. WILL BREAK DOWN THURSDAY...AS A NEW HIGH CENTER BEGINS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST...AND A NEW LOW FORMS OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN SUGGESTING BROAD GREAT BASIN CIRCULATION WILL BREAK DOWN INTO A COUPLE OF SMALLER SCALE CIRCULATIONS. ONE OF THESE ALREADY APPEARS TO HAVE FORMED OVER SOUTHEAST IDAHO...AND IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP WEST NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE COLUMBIA VALLEY BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE OTHER CIRCULATION AND ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP EAST OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY EARLY THURSDAY. SYSTEM IS THEN FORECAST TO TURN SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE MID/LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY LATER THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...AS A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGS FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. LATTER FEATURE WILL BE PROGRESSING INTO BROADER SCALE NORTHERN BRANCH TROUGH...WHICH WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEASTERN STATES. ...PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... INFLUX OF GULF MOISTURE AND STEEPENING LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE ALREADY CONTRIBUTED TO FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS A BROAD AREA OF THE CENTRAL U.S...FROM THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. GIVEN INCREASING LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND STRENGTHENING SHEAR PROFILES ASSOCIATED WITH EVOLVING UPPER FLOW PATTERN...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THURSDAY/ THURSDAY NIGHT. MOST EXTENSIVE ACTIVITY APPEARS LIKELY IN ASSOCIATION WITH STRONGER MID-LEVEL FORCING...FROM THE MIDDLE INTO LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY. STORMS ALSO APPEAR LIKELY TO BECOME NUMEROUS IN ZONE OF ENHANCED WARM ADVECTION...FROM THE OZARKS SOUTHWARD THROUGH EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND THE ARKLATEX INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL TEXAS. SOUTHWESTERN LIMIT TO CONVECTIVE THREAT IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN... PRIMARILY DUE TO FORECAST AMPLIFICATION OF HIGH LEVEL RIDGE IN SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE WESTERLIES...FROM THE SOUTHERN U.S./MEXICAN PLATEAU INTO TEXAS. CLUSTER OF CONVECTION MAY BE ONGOING AT 12Z THURSDAY ACROSS THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY...IN ASSOCIATION WITH FORCING EAST OF LOW/MID- LEVEL CYCLONE. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD TEND TO DEVELOP EAST SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG DEVELOPING WARM FRONTAL ZONE TOWARD THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...BUT COULD STABILIZE BOUNDARY LAYER THROUGH BROAD PORTION OF THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. THIS PROVIDES PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO MORE INTENSE CONVECTIVE THREAT...INCLUDING RISK OF TORNADIC SUPERCELLS...DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST LARGE HAIL WILL ENCOMPASS A BROAD AREA FROM THE CENTRAL/ SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. ...SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS... BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN RATHER DRY TO THE LEE OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...SOUTH OF COLD FRONT ADVANCING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES. HOWEVER...STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT WILL DEVELOP AND COULD BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED HAIL/WIND THREAT BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL COULD BECOME ENHANCED BY IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN DEVELOPING WEAK NORTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER FLOW REGIME. ..KERR.. 04/20/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Apr 21 06:14:06 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 21 Apr 2005 01:14:06 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200504210624.j3L6OJJS021989@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 210617 SWODY2 SPC AC 210616 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0116 AM CDT THU APR 21 2005 VALID 221200Z - 231200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ESE P07 30 NW JCT 20 SE SEP 30 S PRX 20 WSW HOT 55 NNE LIT 25 NE ARG 25 WNW CGI BLV 25 SSW SPI 25 SSE PIA 30 NE BMI 55 NW LAF 25 NW FWA 10 NNE FDY 15 SW CAK 25 S PIT 40 E EKN 20 ENE LYH 30 SSE DAN 40 NW FLO 20 SE AGS 45 ENE ABY 10 SE PFN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NW 4OM 25 SE 4OM 40 SSW GEG 45 SSW LWS 30 SSE BKE 35 SSW BNO 25 SSW LMT 20 NNW ACV. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 S MRF 40 WSW MWL 30 E DUA 55 S HRO 40 E HRO 30 NW UNO 20 WNW TBN 35 ESE SZL 40 N SZL 15 S LWD 25 ESE DSM 30 WNW CID DBQ 20 NE RFD 10 WSW AZO 15 SE ARB 45 NNW CLE 10 NE ERI 40 WNW ELM BGM 30 NE MSV 30 SW GON. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE OH AND TN VALLEYS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND TX AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC AND SERN U.S.... ...SYNOPSIS... STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW EJECTING NEWD THROUGH THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CREST OF CNTRL U.S. UPPER RIDGE TODAY THEN ESEWD INTO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS FRIDAY. HERE IT WILL PHASE WITH AMPLIFYING NRN STREAM TROUGH BEFORE CONTINUING INTO THE NERN U.S. FRIDAY NIGHT. ACCOMPANYING SURFACE CYCLONE WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES FROM THE OH VALLEY INTO THE NERN STATES. BY EARLY FRIDAY A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE MID MS VALLEY SWWD THROUGH NRN AND SWRN TX. THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SEWD THROUGH THE OH AND TN VALLEYS DURING THE DAY...REACHING THE MID ATLANTIC AND WRN CAROLINAS BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. ...OH AND TN VALLEYS... PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR WITH DEWPOINTS FROM THE UPPER 50S OVER THE OH VALLEY TO LOWER 60S OVER THE TN VALLEY SHOULD EXIST IN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR. STORMS MAY BE ONGOING EARLY FRIDAY WITHIN ZONE OF ASCENT AND WARM ADVECTION OVER PORTIONS OF THE OH VALLEY. OTHER STORMS MAY BE IN PROGRESS ALONG REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES OVER THE TN VALLEY. A LIMITED SEVERE THREAT MAY EXIST WITH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY...BUT THE MAIN THREAT SHOULD WAIT UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IN WAKE OF MORNING STORMS...SURFACE HEATING AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES IN MID LEVEL DRY SLOT SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY FROM THE OH VALLEY SWD INTO THE TN VALLEY. STRONG DEEP LAYER ASCENT WITHIN FRONTAL ZONE ENHANCED BY FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE COMPACT VORT MAX SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO A REDEVELOPMENT OF STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. STRENGTHENING WIND AND VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ASSOCIATED WITH THE AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH WILL SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION...INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS AND LINES WITH BOWING SEGMENTS. DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. GIVEN EXPECTED NATURE OF VERTICAL WIND PROFILES...STEEPENING LAPSE RATES...AND POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE LINES...SIGNIFICANT AND/OR WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE UPGRADE TO MODERATE RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS. ...TX THROUGH LOWER MS VALLEY... THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE IN PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR FROM TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY FRIDAY AFTERNOON SUPPORTED BY STEEP LAPSE RATES...SURFACE HEATING AND BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. LOW LEVEL JET AND STRONGEST DEEP LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT EXPECTED TO REMAIN NE OF THIS REGION. HOWEVER...FRONTAL CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE SCATTERED STORMS...ESPECIALLY SINCE THE 2-3 KM TRAJECTORIES WILL NOT FAVOR A STRONG CAP. LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL EFFECTIVE VERTICAL SHEAR FROM 40 TO 50 KT WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND LINE SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. ..DIAL.. 04/21/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Apr 21 17:24:09 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 21 Apr 2005 12:24:09 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200504211734.j3LHYKL3001054@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 211732 SWODY2 SPC AC 211731 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1231 PM CDT THU APR 21 2005 VALID 221200Z - 231200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WSW OWB BMG DAY HTS 5I3 HSS AND MCN TOI 65 NW CEW LUL MLU ELD MEM 45 WSW OWB. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW DRT 40 E BGS ABI MWL TXK LIT JBR MVN DEC 25 SSE PIA 30 NE BMI 25 NW FWA 10 NNE FDY 15 SW CAK 25 S PIT EKN 10 WNW CHO 20 NNE RIC 10 ENE WAL ...CONT... 25 NNE JAX 35 SE TLH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NE ROC UCA PWM ...CONT... 50 WNW DRT 25 E BGS 30 WNW TXK ARG BLV UIN IRK DSM RST VOK 10 S OSH OSC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE BLI 10 W EAT 10 NNW PDT BKE 60 W BOI 65 ESE 4LW 10 NNE MHS 4BK. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FRI/FRI NIGHT ACROSS THE CNTRL/ERN GULF STATES INTO THE TENNESSEE AND LWR OH VALLEY.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MODERATE RISK AREA...ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.... LATEST RUNS OF NAM/GFS APPEAR VERY SIMILAR WITH REGARD TO EVOLUTION OF LARGE-SCALE PATTERN THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. BLOCK WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC/WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. HOWEVER...MERGING NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGHS DOWNSTREAM ARE PROGGED TO CONTRIBUTE TO THE EVOLUTION OF A BROAD DEEP CLOSED LOW EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH SERIES OF COLD FRONTAL INTRUSIONS INTO THE CENTRAL/EASTERN STATES. ULTIMATELY THIS WILL STABILIZE MUCH OF THE NATION EAST OF THE ROCKIES. BUT...BEFORE IT DOES...STRONG LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION APPEARS LIKELY TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. ENVIRONMENT OVER A BROAD AREA FROM THE GULF STATES INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS HAS MOISTENED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. AT THE SAME TIME...INCREASINGLY STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES DEVELOPING/SPREADING EAST OF THE PLAINS ARE CONTRIBUTING TO INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE STORMS. THIS WILL BE ENHANCED BY STRENGTHENING SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH EVOLVING UPPER PATTERN...AND A SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK APPEARS POSSIBLE FRIDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST STATES. ...CNTRL/ERN GULF STATES INTO TN/LWR OH VLYS... MODELS SUGGEST INITIAL COLD SURGE...SOUTH AND WEST OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS SURFACE LOW...WILL EXTEND ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSOURI/CENTRAL ARKANSAS INTO NORTHERN TEXAS BY 12Z FRIDAY. MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT APPEARS LIKELY TO OVERSPREAD WARM SECTOR EARLY IN THE DAY...WITH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE GRADIENT/DRY LINE TYPE BOUNDARY SETTING UP ALONG PRE-FRONTAL WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST INDIANA THROUGH EASTERN ARKANSAS BY MID DAY. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME FOCUS FOR INITIATION OF INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS CAPE INCREASES IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG. ACTIVITY APPEARS POSSIBLE BY EARLY AFTERNOON...AS LEADING EDGE OF FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHERN BRANCH IMPULSE INTERACTS WITH SURFACE BOUNDARY. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES IN EXIT REGION OF 50 TO 70 KT CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL JET STREAK WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...BUT AT THE PRESENT TIME IT APPEARS THIS THREAT COULD BE MITIGATED SOMEWHAT BY RELATIVELY SMALL LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS. EVENTUALLY...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO A SUBSTANTIAL SQUALL LINE...OR PERHAPS A LARGE "BOWING" MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM...AS IT SPREADS SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD SOUTH ATLANTIC AND EASTERN GULF COASTAL AREAS LATE FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS. ...TEXAS... MODELS SUGGEST HIGH-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL EVENTUALLY FLATTEN IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING SYSTEM TO THE NORTHEAST. THOUGH LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW FIELDS ON ANTICYCLONIC SIDE OF HIGH LEVEL JET WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...LOW/MID-LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS. ACTIVITY SHOULD DEVELOP SOUTHWARD WITH TIME AHEAD OF COLD FRONT... FRONT CENTRAL INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. ...PACIFIC NORTHWEST... STRONG HEATING ALONG/IN THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN CASCADES IS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES BENEATH COLD POCKET ASSOCIATED WEAKENING/WESTWARD PROPAGATING MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION. ISOLATED STRONG STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE BY LATE AFTERNOON...A FEW OF WHICH COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME HAIL APPROACHING OR BRIEFLY EXCEEDING SEVERE LIMITS. ..KERR.. 04/21/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 22 05:45:58 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 22 Apr 2005 00:45:58 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200504220556.j3M5u8Lr010889@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 220554 SWODY2 SPC AC 220553 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1253 AM CDT FRI APR 22 2005 VALID 231200Z - 241200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE CEW MAI 55 ESE MCN CAE LYH IPT AVP 35 ENE ABE ACY ...CONT... MLB SRQ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW ART GFL ORH BID ...CONT... PNS DHN SPA HKY BLF HTS LUK 30 SE FWA 40 SE DTW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 N FCA CTB BIL SHR DGW 50 NW AKO LIC LHX TAD ALS ASE CAG LND JAC SUN BNO 4LW 55 NE SVE WMC EKO U24 ELP. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS MID-ATLANTIC REGION TO NRN/CENTRAL FL... ...SYNOPSIS... SYNOPTIC UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY LARGE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE OVER GREAT LAKES STATES...ANCHORING MEAN ERN CONUS TROUGH. CYCLONE IS FCST TO EVOLVE FROM MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW NOW OVER NEB...AND POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW DIGGING SEWD ACROSS NWRN ONT...SERN MANITOBA AND NERN ND. LATTER TROUGH SHOULD PIVOT SEWD THEN EWD AROUND PRIMARY VORTEX CENTER OVER NEXT TWO DAYS. THOUGH DIFFERING IN DETAILS OF LARGER SCALE VORTEX SHAPE AND CENTER POINT...21Z SREF MEMBERS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ONE ANOTHER AND WITH 00Z OPERATIONAL ETA/NGM/SPECTRAL RUNS REGARDING THIS TROUGH BEING LOCATED INVOF SRN APPALACHIANS BY 18Z. MEANWHILE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM W-CENTRAL MEX NWD ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN ROCKIES TO CANADIAN HIGH PLAINS. UPSTREAM...ANOTHER LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY W OF CA BETWEEN 130W-140W -- IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY EWD THROUGH DAY-2. BROAD PACIFIC CYCLONE IS FCST TO FORCE SEAWARD RETROGRESSION OF SMALLER UPPER LOW NOW ANALYZED OVER ORE. SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW ORBITING BACKSIDE OF THAT CIRCULATION NEAR 31N138W -- SHOULD PIVOT AROUND SRN SEMICIRCLE OF PACIFIC VORTEX...MOVING NEWD ACROSS COASTAL CENTRAL/SRN CA NEAR MIDDLE OF PERIOD. ...MID ATLANTIC AREA SWD... EARLY IN PERIOD...SCATTERED-NUMEROUS TSTMS EXPECTED FROM CENTRAL/ERN PA AND WRN NY SWD AT LEAST THROUGH CAROLINAS...PERHAPS LINKED WITH CONVECTION OVER NERN GULF AND COASTAL FL PANHANDLE REGION. EXPECT BUOYANCY TO DIMINISH WITH NWD EXTENT FROM TIDEWATER AND VA PIEDMONT...WHILE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND FRONTAL/PREFRONTAL CONVERGENCE SHOULD WEAKEN WITH SWD EXTENT OVER SERN STATES. GREATEST SEVERE PROBABILITIES WITHIN BROADER CATEGORICAL SLGT ARE DRAWN FROM INLAND MID ATLANTIC SWD OVER PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN OF CAROLINAS. PRIND THIS AREA IS WHERE STRONG DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELDS...ACCOMPANYING SPEED SHEARS AND LATE MORNING TO MID-AFTERNOON MUCAPE MAY BE BEST JUXTAPOSED. EXPECT STRONG LOW-MIDLEVEL SHEAR OVER SERN SEMICIRCLE OF GREAT LAKES CYCLONE TO OVERSPREAD DIURNALLY HEATED AND DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER...WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SUPPORT TSTMS. PRIND CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP INVOF PREFRONTAL LEE TROUGH AND CONFLUENCE AXIS EARLY IN PERIOD...WITH RESULTING TSTMS MOVING EWD ACROSS REGION. AS MID/UPPER TROUGH APCHS...FLOW ALOFT SHOULD BACK WITH TIME...CONTRIBUTING TO NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP-LAYER PROFILES. THIS COMBINED WITH LIKELIHOOD OF LINEAR FORCING INDICATES DAMAGING WIND IS MAIN THREAT. SUPERCELLS AHEAD OF OR EMBEDDED WITHIN MAIN CONVECTIVE PLUME ALSO ARE POSSIBLE. ...WRN ORE... WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS MAY DEVELOP OVER CASCADE REGION WITH AFTERNOON HEATING OF HIGHER TERRAIN. A FEW MAY PRODUCE HAIL/GUSTS NEAR SEVERE LEVELS. SFC OBS INDICATE DEW POINTS RELATIVELY MAXIMIZED IN 40S TO LOW 50S OVER THIS AREA...PROGGED TO REMAIN THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. COLD MIDLEVEL AIR ASSOCIATED WITH PERTURBATION ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...CONTRIBUTING TO ENOUGH MLCAPE TO SUPPORT THUNDER. ETA/SPECTRAL PLANAR PROGS AND FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SELY MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW AROUND RETROGRADING LOW AND ELY TO NELY/UPSLOPE FLOW IN BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS CONTRIBUTES TO POSITIVE LOW LEVEL SRH FOR SLOW MOVING STORMS...A RESULT OF VEERING WITH HEIGHT AND SUFFICIENTLY WWD-SKEWED 0-3 KM HODOGRAPH. MIDLEVEL FLOW IS PROGGED TO BE ONLY 10-20 KT OVER REGION. STILL...ENOUGH LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND BUOYANCY ARE PROGGED TO CONSIDER MARGINAL AND SUBCATEGORICAL SEVERE PROBABILITIES. ..EDWARDS.. 04/22/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 22 17:14:48 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 22 Apr 2005 12:14:48 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200504221724.j3MHOu9u018321@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 221722 SWODY2 SPC AC 221721 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1221 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2005 VALID 231200Z - 241200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE CEW MAI 55 ESE MCN CAE DAN 10 NE AOO 35 ENE BFD BGM 15 S PHL 15 SSW ACY ...CONT... VRB AGR 40 NW AGR 15 SSE PIE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N PBG 10 S EFK LCI 15 E HYA ...CONT... PNS MCN AHN 10 W AVL UNI 20 NE CLE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CZZ RAL 40 N SBA MER 30 E ACV 25 E AST CLM 20 SE BLI 40 SSE 4OM HLN 10 SSE JAC 10 N RKS 10 N ASE 4SL ONM GDP 60 SSW P07. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SATURDAY ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES...AND PARTS OF NRN/CENTAL FLORIDA.... BLOCK PERSISTS IN UPPER FLOW REGIME OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC/WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE WILL DIG INTO SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH...TO THE SOUTH/WEST OF UPPER HIGH CENTER OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA...AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY. AS THIS OCCURS...CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OFF THE PACIFIC COAST IS PROGGED TO BROADEN...WITH ONE SHORT WAVE PIVOTING WESTWARD AWAY FROM THE PACIFIC COAST...AND ANOTHER MIGRATING INLAND ACROSS CALIFORNIA INTO THE GREAT BASIN SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. DOWNSTREAM...MERGER OF SPLIT BELTS OF STRONGER FLOW WILL REMAIN TO THE IMMEDIATE LEE OF THE ROCKIES...WHILE LARGE DEEP CLOSED LOW WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WITHIN THIS CIRCULATION...ONE SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO ROTATE THROUGH ITS EASTERN/NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COAST STATES...WHILE ANOTHER DIGS AROUND ITS WESTERN/SOUTHERN PERIPHERY...ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS. UPPER PATTERN WILL SUPPORT SLOWLY DEEPENING CYCLONE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION...WHILE SURFACE RIDGING DEVELOPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WHILE AIR MASS WILL BE STABLE...OR IN THE PROCESS OF STABILIZING...THROUGH MUCH OF THE NATION EAST OF THE ROCKIES... POTENTIAL FOR VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAY EXTEND INTO SATURDAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE ATLANTIC COAST STATES...BEFORE COLD FRONT ADVANCES OFFSHORE. ...MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES... PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE BAND IS EXPECTED TO BE OVERSPREADING MID/SOUTH ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA AT 12Z SATURDAY. ACTIVITY LIKELY WILL BE WEAK...OR AT LEAST IN PROCESS OF WEAKENING...AS IT PROGRESSES OFF COASTAL AREAS EARLY IN THE DAY... AND LINGERING CLOUD COVER/STABILIZING INFLUENCE OF RAIN COOLED AIR PROVIDES CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO SEVERE THREAT LATER IN THE DAY. HOWEVER...MODELS DO SUGGEST MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL NOSE NORTHWARD IN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS EARLY IN THE DAY...AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AT LEAST NARROW WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR HEATING AHEAD OF COLD FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. STRONGEST DESTABILIZATION APPEARS LIKELY IN A NARROW AXIS FROM CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH CENTRAL/NORTHERN VIRGINIA...PERHAPS INTO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...WHERE MIXED LAYER CAPE COULD EXCEED 1000 J/KG AS STRONGER MID-LEVEL COOLING OVERSPREADS REGION. AT LEAST SCATTERED INTENSE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED...AND SHEAR PROFILES BENEATH 50 TO 70 KT SOUTHERLY MID-LEVEL JET WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS...PRIMARILY WITH LARGE HAIL. FORCING ALONG FRONT COULD SUPPORT NARROW SQUALL LINE...WITH A BROADER SCALE DAMAGING WIND THREAT POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN VIRGINIA/NORTH CAROLINA. ...FLORIDA... WIND GUSTS/HAIL COULD ACCOMPANY WEAKENING PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE BAND SPREADING INTO PARTS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA AT 12Z SATURDAY. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAY BECOME FOCUSED NEAR INTERSECTION OF PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND SEA BREEZE ALONG THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST FAIRLY EARLY IN THE DAY. THIS WOULD SEEM LIKELY TO LIMIT RISK FOR ADDITIONAL STRONG/SEVERE STORMS TO THE MELBOURNE AREA...BEFORE THIS FORCING DEVELOPS OFFSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON. ...INTERMOUNTAIN WEST... LOWER-LEVELS WILL REMAIN DRY...BUT INFLUX OF MID/HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT SURFACE HEATING SOMEWHAT...BUT DESTABILIZATION SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER A BROAD AREA WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. ..KERR.. 04/22/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Apr 23 05:35:38 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 23 Apr 2005 00:35:38 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200504230545.j3N5jhqw032659@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 230542 SWODY2 SPC AC 230541 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1241 AM CDT SAT APR 23 2005 VALID 241200Z - 251200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... DAY-2 SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN DOMINATED BY MAJOR NERN CONUS CYCLONE...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO FILL AND LIFT SLOWLY NWD ACROSS ERN GREAT LAKES REGION. UPPER RIDGE OVER ROCKIES WILL BE BREACHED EARLY IN PERIOD BY SRN STREAM JET...ASSOCIATED WITH PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CROSSING SRN PACIFIC COAST. ONE OF THESE TROUGHS -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY SW OF CA IN BETWEEN 125W-130W -- IS FCST TO MOVE ONSHORE SRN CA DAY-1 THEN ACROSS ERN GREAT BASIN/CENTRAL ROCKIES REGION THIS PERIOD. OPERATIONAL AND SREF GUIDANCE IS IN REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE MOVING FROM CO TO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AFTER 25/00Z...AND ASSOCIATED HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS SRN ROCKIES/SRN PLAINS THROUGH MOST OF PERIOD. AT SFC...LEE-SIDE CYCLOGENESIS EXPECTED OVER SERN CO/NERN NM AREA...ATTACHED SFC TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS ERN NM AND FAR W TX. POSTFRONTAL SFC HIGH WILL MOVE RAPIDLY SEWD FROM CENTRAL PLAINS ACROSS NRN GULF. ...SRN ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS... WIDELY SCATTERED AND HIGH-BASED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING AFTERNOON OVER SRN ROCKIES...WITH CONVECTION FARTHER E ON HIGH PLAINS AND INVOF LEE TROUGH BEING MORE ISOLATED BECAUSE OF CAPPING. EXPECT SFC THETAE TO SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH DAYLIGHT HOURS -- PRIMARILY AS RESIDUAL MOISTURE ADVECTS NWWD FROM CONTINENTAL SFC HIGH THAT SHOULD SETTLE OVER NRN GULF. THOUGH MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING/EWD PROGRESSION OF LEE TROUGH DURING DAY...EXPECT AND DOWNSLOPE/SWLY FLOW INCREASES TO ITS W DURING AFTERNOON. THESE PROCESSES WILL RESULT IN WEAK DRYLINE WITH SFC DEW POINTS UPPER 30S TO LOW 50S TO ITS E BY 25/00Z. ALTHOUGH DEEPLY MIXED SUBCLOUD LAYERS WILL MAXIMIZE POTENTIAL FOR ANY STRONG DOWNDRAFTS OR HAIL THAT IS GENERATED TO REACH SFC...BUOYANCY SHOULD BE MARGINAL BECAUSE OF WEAK MOISTURE. THEREFORE SEVERE PROBABILITIES ARE TOO SMALL TO WARRANT CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK ATTM. SOMEWHAT FARTHER E AND AFTER DARK...A FEW SMALL BANDS OR CLUSTERS OF NOCTURNAL CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP OVER SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS. STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT REGIME SHOULD RAISE MARGINALLY MOIST PARCELS TO HIGHLY ELEVATED LFCS IN A FEW AREAS FROM WRN KS TO WRN OK AND NW TX. WEAK CAPE WILL MITIGATE SEVERE POTENTIAL. ..EDWARDS.. 04/23/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Apr 23 06:55:58 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 23 Apr 2005 01:55:58 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200504230706.j3N765aB026979@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 230700 SWODY2 SPC AC 230659 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0159 AM CDT SAT APR 23 2005 VALID 241200Z - 251200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NNE FCA 10 ESE LWT DGW BFF IML HLC SLN 50 SSW EMP 50 SW TUL ADM MWL BWD JCT LRD ...CONT... ELP SVC PRC IGM LAS RNO SVE MFR PDX 55 ENE BLI. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... CORRECTED FOR CATEGORICAL POINTS ...SYNOPSIS... DAY-2 SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN DOMINATED BY MAJOR NERN CONUS CYCLONE...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO FILL AND LIFT SLOWLY NWD ACROSS ERN GREAT LAKES REGION. UPPER RIDGE OVER ROCKIES WILL BE BREACHED EARLY IN PERIOD BY SRN STREAM JET...ASSOCIATED WITH PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CROSSING SRN PACIFIC COAST. ONE OF THESE TROUGHS -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY SW OF CA IN BETWEEN 125W-130W -- IS FCST TO MOVE ONSHORE SRN CA DAY-1 THEN ACROSS ERN GREAT BASIN/CENTRAL ROCKIES REGION THIS PERIOD. OPERATIONAL AND SREF GUIDANCE IS IN REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE MOVING FROM CO TO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AFTER 25/00Z...AND ASSOCIATED HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS SRN ROCKIES/SRN PLAINS THROUGH MOST OF PERIOD. AT SFC...LEE-SIDE CYCLOGENESIS EXPECTED OVER SERN CO/NERN NM AREA...ATTACHED SFC TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS ERN NM AND FAR W TX. POSTFRONTAL SFC HIGH WILL MOVE RAPIDLY SEWD FROM CENTRAL PLAINS ACROSS NRN GULF. ...SRN ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS... WIDELY SCATTERED AND HIGH-BASED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING AFTERNOON OVER SRN ROCKIES...WITH CONVECTION FARTHER E ON HIGH PLAINS AND INVOF LEE TROUGH BEING MORE ISOLATED BECAUSE OF CAPPING. EXPECT SFC THETAE TO SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH DAYLIGHT HOURS -- PRIMARILY AS RESIDUAL MOISTURE ADVECTS NWWD FROM CONTINENTAL SFC HIGH THAT SHOULD SETTLE OVER NRN GULF. THOUGH MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING/EWD PROGRESSION OF LEE TROUGH DURING DAY...EXPECT AND DOWNSLOPE/SWLY FLOW INCREASES TO ITS W DURING AFTERNOON. THESE PROCESSES WILL RESULT IN WEAK DRYLINE WITH SFC DEW POINTS UPPER 30S TO LOW 50S TO ITS E BY 25/00Z. ALTHOUGH DEEPLY MIXED SUBCLOUD LAYERS WILL MAXIMIZE POTENTIAL FOR ANY STRONG DOWNDRAFTS OR HAIL THAT IS GENERATED TO REACH SFC...BUOYANCY SHOULD BE MARGINAL BECAUSE OF WEAK MOISTURE. THEREFORE SEVERE PROBABILITIES ARE TOO SMALL TO WARRANT CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK ATTM. SOMEWHAT FARTHER E AND AFTER DARK...A FEW SMALL BANDS OR CLUSTERS OF NOCTURNAL CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP OVER SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS. STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT REGIME SHOULD RAISE MARGINALLY MOIST PARCELS TO HIGHLY ELEVATED LFCS IN A FEW AREAS FROM WRN KS TO WRN OK AND NW TX. WEAK CAPE WILL MITIGATE SEVERE POTENTIAL. ..EDWARDS.. 04/23/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Apr 23 17:21:11 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 23 Apr 2005 12:21:11 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200504231731.j3NHVEiq028040@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 231729 SWODY2 SPC AC 231728 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1228 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2005 VALID 241200Z - 251200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE 63S MSO 10 ESE WEY 10 SSE LND 4FC PUB 45 S LHX EHA CSM ADM TYR 15 S LFK HOU PSX 10 E HDO 20 SE DRT ...CONT... DUG PRC IGM LAS 15 SE TVL MHS 10 SW MFR PDX 55 ENE BLI. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... STABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE NATION EAST OF THE ROCKIES...IN WAKE OF SURFACE FRONTAL PASSAGE ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL CYCLONE CURRENTLY STILL EVOLVING OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. CENTER OF THIS CIRCULATION IS PROGGED TO ROTATE INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...WHEN SYSTEM MAY BEGIN TO SLOWLY WEAKEN. BLOCKING PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC/WESTERN NORTHERN AMERICA...BUT MODELS INDICATE CENTER OF BROAD SOUTHERN BRANCH CIRCULATION WILL REFORM FARTHER WEST OF THE PACIFIC COAST. SIGNIFICANT JET STREAK CURRENTLY PROGRESSING THROUGH BASE OF THIS CIRCULATION...AND READILY EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY...IS PROGGED BY MODELS TO MIGRATE INTO THE NORTHERN MEXICAN PLATEAU LATER TONIGHT. MODELS INDICATE THIS FEATURE AND ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER SHORT WAVE WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD SUNDAY...GRADUALLY BREAKING DOWN UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS REGION. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND RETURN FLOW OF GULF MOISTURE INTO TEXAS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. ...LEE OF SRN ROCKIES INTO TEXAS... MODELS SUGGEST CLOUDINESS/PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME SHOULD SPREAD EAST OF THE NEW MEXICO HIGH PLAINS EARLY ENOUGH IN THE DAY TO ALLOW SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE HEATING BY LATE AFTERNOON. WHILE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL LIKELY NOT OCCUR INTO THIS REGION...ENOUGH MOISTENING IS EXPECTED FOR MIXED LAYER CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 500 J/KG. NEAR/SHORTLY AFTER PEAK HEATING...WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE. ENHANCED BY MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES... A STORM OR TWO COULD BRIEFLY APPROACH OR EXCEED SEVERE LIMITS BEFORE DIMINISHING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AND LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL TEXAS LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. ON LEADING EDGE OF BETTER GULF MOISTURE RETURN...INSTABILITY COULD BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED STORMS WITH HAIL ACROSS PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS SUNDAY EVENING...POSSIBLY INTO I-35 CORRIDOR OF CENTRAL TEXAS BY EARLY MONDAY. ...INTERMOUNTAIN WEST... MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS A BROAD AREA OF THE WEST SUNDAY...GENERALLY BENEATH MID-LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH AXIS...SOUTH/WEST OF DEFORMATION ZONE SETTING UP FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. ..KERR.. 04/23/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Apr 24 05:55:55 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 24 Apr 2005 00:55:55 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200504240605.j3O65uBO006384@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 240603 SWODY2 SPC AC 240602 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0102 AM CDT SUN APR 24 2005 VALID 251200Z - 261200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW PSX SAT 40 E JCT BWD SPS 30 NW OKC JLN SGF UNO MEM CBM 35 WSW 0A8 30 S SEM DHN MAI 25 WNW AQQ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DRT SJT 45 NNW SJT BGS MAF INK ELP SAD IGM DRA RBL MFR EUG SLE PDX YKM ALW BOI TWF EVW VEL CAG LAR CYS LIC 55 N LAA GLD EAR YKN AXN BJI 50 SSW INL RHI MTW AZO FWA MIE BMG OWB BNA RMG ATL ABY 50 SSE TLH. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS POTIONS CENTRAL/ERN TX/OK TO LOWER MS VALLEY AND WRN FL PANHANDLE... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL REMAIN DOMINATED BY BROAD GREAT LAKES CYCLONE...WHICH IS FCST TO CONTINUE FILLING AND LIFTING NWD OVER SWRN QUE THROUGH PERIOD. HOWEVER...SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER SERN NWT AND EXTREME NRN MB -- IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY AND DIG SWD WITHIN WRN SEMICIRCLE OF GREAT LAKES VORTEX. AS THIS OCCURS...MARGINALLY CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW NOW MOVING ASHORE SRN CA WILL BECOME ENTRAINED INTO TIGHTENING HEIGHT GRADIENTS OVER SRN PLAINS AND ACCELERATE SEWD ACROSS NRN TX AS OPEN-WAVE TROUGH. ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLOGENESIS LATE DAY-1 OVER ERN CO WILL LEAD TO PRONOUNCED SFC LOW...PRECEDING MIDLEVEL TROUGH DURING DAY2 PERIOD ACROSS NWRN/N-CENTRAL TX OR SWRN/S-CENTRAL OK. BY 26/00Z...SFC CYCLONE SHOULD SETTLE INTO AREA BETWEEN OKC-DFW-SPS...SHARPENING DRYLINE EXTENDING SWD ACROSS CENTRAL TX...COLD FRONT NEWD ACROSS ERN KS AND IA TO FRONTAL WAVE LOW INVOF WRN/CENTRAL WI. AS SRN STREAM MIDLEVEL TROUGH WEAKENS OVERNIGHT...SO WILL ASSOCIATED SFC LOW. BY END OF PERIOD...COLD FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM WI CYCLONE SWWD ACROSS SERN MO TO S-CENTRAL/SW TX...DRYLINE ALIGNED NE-SW ACROSS TX COASTAL PLAIN. ...SRN PLAINS TO LOWER MS VALLEY... SCATTERED TSTMS FCST TO DEVELOP ALONG AND E OF DRYLINE AND COLD FRONT DURING AFTERNOON...PERSISTING THROUGH EVENING WITH ONE OR MORE MCS EVOLVING AFTER DARK. SOME SUPERCELLS MAY DEVELOP WITH DAMAGING HAIL AND POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES DURING AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER PORTIONS CENTRAL/NRN/ERN TX AND PERHAPS S-CENTRAL/SERN OK...SHIFTING EWD SUBSEQUENTLY OVER ARKLATEX...E TX AND LA. SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY SHIFT INTO PORTIONS MS/AL OVERNIGHT. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE FCST TO STRENGTHEN THROUGHOUT PERIOD AHEAD OF MIDLEVEL WAVE...AND OVER MUCH OF MOIST SECTOR. COMBINATION OF ISALLOBARICALLY FORCED FLOW BACKING AHEAD OF SFC CYCLONE...AND TIGHTENING MIDLEVEL GRADIENTS...WILL RESULT IN FAVORABLY ENLARGED LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND BULK SHEARS...I.E. 0-1 KM SRH 100-200 J/KG AND 50-60 KT EFFECTIVE LOW-MIDLEVEL SHEAR. THIS SUPPORTS POTENTIAL FOR ALL MODES OF SEVERE...INCLUDING SOME SIGNIFICANT EVENTS...ASSOCIATED WITH SUPERCELLS AND BOWS. BIGGEST CONCERN -- AND WHAT KEEPS PROBABILITIES BARELY BELOW CATEGORICAL MDT RISK THRESHOLDS ATTM -- REMAINS UNCERTAINTIES ABOUT MAGNITUDE AND SPATIAL EXTENT OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS OUTLOOK AREA. MODIFIED MODEL FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE LOW 60S F SFC DEW POINTS OVER N-CENTRAL/NE TX...AND MID 60S SE TX...WILL BE SUFFICIENT IN COMBINATION WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND DRYLINE LIFT TO BREAK CAP. SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEW POINTS WILL LOWER LCL AND INCREASE PROBABILITIES FOR SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES. ATTM POST-FRONTAL CONTINENTAL HIGH AND ASSOCIATED OFFSHORE FLOW HAVE SHUNTED MID 60S DEW POINTS TO TAMPICO AREA...70S INTO BAY OF CAMPECHE. COMBINATION OF MARINE MODIFICATION JUST N OF PRESENT 60-65 DEG ISODROSOTHERMS...AND MOIST ADVECTION IN LATE DAY1/EARLY DAY2 RETURN FLOWS...SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO 60S DEW POINTS AT LEAST INTO CENTRAL/ERN TX...PERHAPS NEAR RED RIVER...IN NARROW CORRIDOR. IN THIS SCENARIO MLCAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG ARE POSSIBLE...GIVEN STEEP 8-9 DEG C/KM LAPSE RATES. FAVORABLE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING AND MUCAPES OF AROUND 2000 J/KG MAY SPREAD EWD ACROSS LOWER MS VALLEY OVERNIGHT...HELPING TO SUPPORT EWD SPREAD OF SEVERE THREAT. ...ELSEWHERE... OCCASIONAL STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS MAY DEVELOP INVOF COLD FRONT FARTHER N/NE ACROSS OZARKS...PERHAPS AS FAR N UPPER MS VALLEY...IN ZONE OF STRONG DEEP-LAYER FORCING AHEAD OF NRN STREAM TROUGH. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SFC-BASED BUOYANCY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH WITH NWD EXTENT ACROSS OZARKS INTO IA...RESULTING IN MARGINAL/CONDITIONAL SEVERE PROBABILITIES. ETA/SPECTRAL INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF WEAK SRN STREAM MIDLEVEL WAVE...AND NEAR MARINE/WARM FRONT...OVERNIGHT IN SERN LA/WRN FL PANHANDLE CORRIDOR. ALTHOUGH LAPSE RATES AND BUOYANCY WILL NOT BE AS LARGE AS FARTHER W...VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES INDICATE SEVERE THREAT WITH ANY SUCH ACTIVITY AS WELL. ..EDWARDS.. 04/24/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Apr 24 17:43:20 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 24 Apr 2005 12:43:20 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200504241753.j3OHrKZg027572@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 241748 SWODY2 SPC AC 241747 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1247 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2005 VALID 251200Z - 261200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW PSX 35 NNW NIR 45 NNW SAT 10 ESE BWD 20 N FSI 35 SE END 25 ESE FSM 45 ENE LIT 25 SSW UOX 55 NW MEI 50 NNE MOB 10 ENE CEW 25 W PFN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DRT 50 SW SJT 25 NW FST ELP 45 ENE TUS IGM 20 NE SGU 25 SSE U24 50 NW ENV 35 NE BNO ALW 20 SSW S80 35 SSW 27U 30 ESE IDA 30 SE BPI 15 NW CAG 4FC 40 WSW COS 25 SE RTN 40 WNW EHA 35 NE GLD 15 E GRI 30 SE SPW 50 SSE RST 30 NNE MMO BMG 35 SW CKV 30 SSW HSV 30 S AUO 20 NW AQQ. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL / SRN PLAINS THIS PERIOD...WITH TIME BECOMING EMBEDDED WITHIN WLY FLOW ON SRN PERIPHERY OF NERN US/ SERN CANADA VORTEX. BROAD BELT OF MODERATELY-STRONG MID-LEVEL WLY FLOW CENTERED ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE GULF COAST...WHILE WIDESPREAD WARM ADVECTION PERSISTS ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS REGION. AT THE SURFACE...MAIN QUESTION THIS PERIOD WILL BE DEGREE OF MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS / WRN GULF COAST REGION. LOW INITIALLY FORECAST OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS SRN OK / N TX...WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING SWD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. MEANWHILE...DRYLINE SHOULD MIX EWD ACROSS CENTRAL TX THROUGH THE DAY. ...ERN HALF OF THE SRN PLAINS EWD TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY... AS MENTIONED...MOISTURE RETURN REMAINS IN QUESTION THIS FORECAST PERIOD. ATTM...WINDS REMAIN NELY ACROSS THE GULF AS STRONG COLD FRONT PROGRESSES SWD...WITH 60 DEGREE ISODROSOTHERM NOW INTO THE CENTRAL / SRN GULF -- WELL S OF BROWNSVILLE. WITH TIME...FLOW WILL SLOWLY TURN EWD AND THEN SEWD ACROSS THE WRN GULF INTO TX...ALLOWING PARTIALLY-MODIFIED BOUNDARY LAYER TO SPREAD NWD. HOWEVER...WARM ADVECTION ONGOING ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS SHOULD BE FUELING AN AREA OF WIDESPREAD CLOUDS / THUNDERSTORMS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...AND THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVELS MOISTEN. THOUGH MAJORITY OF THIS PRECIPITATION SHOULD SHIFT EWD TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON...CLEARING / HEATING SHOULD BE LIMITED BEHIND THIS ACTIVITY / AHEAD OF DRYLINE. NONETHELESS...IT APPEARS THAT SUFFICIENT HEATING / DESTABILIZATION OF MOISTENING /50S TO LOW 60S DEWPOINTS/ BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD RESULT IN NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG / AHEAD OF DRYLINE ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND ERN TX...AND NWD INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL / ERN OK BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. DESPITE ONGOING QUESTIONS REGARDING MOISTENING / DESTABILIZATION...MODERATELY-STRONG / VEERING WIND FIELD WITH HEIGHT WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED / SUPERCELL STORMS. GREATEST SEVERE THREAT SHOULD EXIST ALONG AND E OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR FROM ERN PORTIONS OF THE HILL COUNTRY TO THE DFW METROPLEX AND INTO NERN TX...WHERE MOISTURE RETURN -- AND THUS INSTABILITY -- SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED. IN ADDITION TO STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUPPORTING A LARGE HAIL THREAT...LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES -- PARTICULARLY IN SRN PORTIONS OF THREAT AREA WHERE GREATEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRONGEST DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD IS ANTICIPATED. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD SHIFT SLOWLY EWD THROUGH THE EVENING / OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL LIKELY DIMINISH WITH TIME GIVEN COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER AND LESSER LOW-LAYER MOISTURE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION. ..GOSS.. 04/24/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Apr 25 17:21:09 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 25 Apr 2005 12:21:09 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200504251731.j3PHVAhV018966@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 251729 SWODY2 SPC AC 251728 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1228 PM CDT MON APR 25 2005 VALID 261200Z - 271200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DAB 15 WSW PIE ...CONT... 20 NE GLS 10 NNW GLH 40 SSW MKL 35 NNE MSL RMG ATL 40 SE MCN SSI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PBI EYW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MFE 10 SSE NIR 15 SSW SHV 15 SE CGI IND 20 W CAK 15 WNW DUJ 25 SE AVP 10 ESE EWR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 4OM GEG 27U 45 S CPR LAR 40 N 4FC GJT DRO 55 S ALS DHT 55 E AMA CDS 40 NNW BGS CNM ALM TCS SOW LAS RNO RBL 35 W MHS EUG PDX 65 ESE BLI 4OM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES.... ...SYNOPSIS... COLD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE ERN U.S. WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE NRN CA COAST AND MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SWRN U.S. STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL POLAR JET WILL EXTEND SSEWD ALONG BACK SIDE OF ERN U.S. TROUGH HELPING TO ROTATE THE TROUGH EWD TOWARDS THE NERN U.S. TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. SECOND STRONG COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM A LOW OVER NERN LOWER MI SWD/SWWD THROUGH ANOTHER WEAKER LOW OVER SRN IL...THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH EWD DURING THE PERIOD EXTENDING FROM ERN OH INTO THE NWRN GULF OF MEXICO BY 27/00Z...THEN FROM CENTRAL NY STATE AND THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS AND THE CENTRAL FL PANHANDLE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. ...CENTRAL GULF STATES... CURRENTLY...SURFACE DEW POINTS ACROSS THIS AREA RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS CENTRAL MS TO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S ACROSS THE LA COAST INTO SERN TX. MODELS SEEM TO AGREE THAT 60 DEGREE DEW POINTS WILL BE INTO CENTRAL MS BY TUESDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THUS...THE MODELS ARE DEPICTING A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH MLCAPE OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG AND LIFTED INDICES BETWEEN -4 AND -8. ANALYSIS OF POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM INDICATE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 7.5C/KM INDICATING FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME LARGE HAIL. THESE SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE SOME DRYING AT MID LEVELS AS 700-500 MB WINDS RANGE BETWEEN 45-60 KT SUPPORTING THE TRANSFER OF DOWNWARD MOMENTUM FOR DAMAGING WINDS. HAVE NOTICED IN THE MODEL DATA SOME FAVORABLE SPEED 0-3 KM SHEAR ACROSS PARTS OF SRN MS...SRN AL INTO THE FL PANHANDLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WOULD INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME ISOLATED SUPERCELLS/TORNADOES DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT/SQUALL LINE. ..MCCARTHY.. 04/25/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Apr 26 04:46:38 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 25 Apr 2005 23:46:38 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200504260456.j3Q4uWdi004325@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 260454 SWODY2 SPC AC 260453 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1153 PM CDT MON APR 25 2005 VALID 271200Z - 281200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ONP PDX YKM ALW MQM RIW AIA OLU OMA UIN SLO MVN PAH DYR MEM PBF 40 N TXK MLC PNC 55 SSW HLC PUB U17 P38 55 NW DRA 45 NNW NID 45 WSW FAT SFO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S CTY 50 N DAB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM WAL DOV ABE MSV PSF ORH ACK. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL VORTEX OVER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL REMAIN DOMINANT SYNOPTIC FEATURE THROUGH PERIOD...AS ITS PRIMARY CIRCULATION CENTER PIVOTS NNWWD TO NWWD ACROSS NWRN ONT. SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW DIGGING SEWD ACROSS NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY -- SHOULD MOVE EWD FROM SRN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS EWD TO TIDEWATER/MID ATLANTIC COASTAL REGION. AT SFC...COLD FRONT NOW ANALYZED FROM LM AREA SWWD ACROSS OZARKS...SERN OK AND NW TX...SHOULD BE MOVING OFFSHORE NC AND SEWD ACROSS NRN/CENTRAL FL PENINSULA BY 27/12Z. LEE-SIDE CYCLOGENESIS AND WARM FRONTOGENESIS IS EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL PLAINS DURING DAY. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE SCATTER IN 21Z SREF SOLUTIONS FOR TRACK OF THIS LOW...MORE SO THAN STRONG AGREEMENT NOTED BETWEEN OPERATIONAL 26/00Z RUNS OF SPECTRAL/ETA. EXPECT CYCLONE TO MOVE SEWD FROM ERN CO/WRN KS ARE ACROSS SWRN KS/NRN OK BY 28/12Z...SFC WARM FRONT ENEWD ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN MO. ...CENTRAL/SRN FL... BAND OF CONVECTION MAY BE ONGOING AT BEGINNING OF PERIOD OVER PORTIONS CENTRAL OR SRN FL...AND ADJACENT ERN GULF WATERS. BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IS EXPECTED TO VEER WITH TIME THROUGH LATE DAY-1 INTO EARLY DAY-2 PERIOD...REDUCING CONVERGENCE ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AND MAKING PREFRONTAL VERTICAL WIND PROFILES ALMOST UNIDIRECTIONAL. LOW LEVEL THETAE ADVECTION OFF ERN GULF MAY KEEP AIR MASS SUFFICIENTLY UNSTABLE FOR TSTMS AMIDST WEAKENING LIFT. UPPER 60S F SFC DEW POINTS CONTRIBUTE TO AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG SBCAPES BASED ON MODIFIED ETA/ETA-KF FCST SOUNDINGS. A FEW STRONG-SEVERE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE...HOWEVER OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED BY WEAK LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND DECREASING TRENDS IN NEAR-SFC FORCING. ...LOWER MO VALLEY/OZARKS AREA TO SRN PLAINS... ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED ELEVATED TSTMS POSSIBLE AFTER DARK...ON BOTH SIDES OF SFC WARM FRONT. 50-60 KT LLJ SHOULD ADVECT INCOMPLETELY MODIFIED RETURN FLOW AIR NNEWD FROM NWRN GULF TOWARD THAT AREA. ASSOCIATED ISENTROPIC ASCENT MAY FORCE SOME PARCELS TO LFC NEAR 700 MB LEVEL. ALTHOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE STRONG THROUGH DEEP LAYER STARTING AT SFC...EFFECTIVE SHEAR FOR ELEVATED PARCELS MAY BE MUCH SMALLER. THAT FACTOR PLUS SMALL ELEVATED BUOYANCY INDICATES AGAINST ASSIGNING SEVERE PROBABILITIES ATTM. FARTHER SW...DRYLINE SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS TX PANHANDLE AND W-CENTRAL TX ALONG INTERFACE BETWEEN DOWNSLOPE/WLYS AND GRADUALLY MOISTENING TRAJECTORIES FROM S TX. HOWEVER...PRIND ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AND LACK OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE RETURN WILL KEEP DRYLINE CAPPED. ..EDWARDS.. 04/26/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Apr 26 17:39:13 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 26 Apr 2005 12:39:13 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200504261749.j3QHn68w019698@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 261747 SWODY2 SPC AC 261746 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1246 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2005 VALID 271200Z - 281200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ONP PDX YKM ALW MQM RIW AIA OLU OMA UIN SLO MVN PAH DYR MEM 15 SW PBF 40 N TXK 25 NNE MLC 35 WNW END 25 N LBL 15 S PUB U17 P38 55 NW DRA 45 NNW NID 45 WSW FAT SFO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S CTY 50 N DAB ...CONT... 35 SE OAJ 20 SSE DCA 20 WSW ABE MSV PSF ORH ACK. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ZONAL ACROSS MUCH OF THE U.S. ON WEDNESDAY...AS A BROAD CLOSED LOW RETROGRADES WWD FROM ONTARIO INTO MANITOBA. A TROUGH NOW LOCATED FROM THE WRN GREAT LAKES TO LOWER MS VALLEY IS PROGGED TO TRACK ENEWD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING AND THEN OFF THE SRN NEW ENGLAND COAST BY 12Z THURSDAY. IN THE WEST...HEIGHTS WILL FALL ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AS A TROUGH ROTATING AROUND WRN PERIPHERY OF THE CANADA CLOSED LOW MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NW...AND A LARGE CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW NOW OFF THE WEST COAST MOVES INLAND OVER CA. ...CENTRAL/SRN FL... COLD FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...WILL LIKELY EXTEND FROM A SURFACE LOW OVER THE DELMARVA REGION SSWWD ALONG THE EAST COAST TO NRN FL AT 12Z WEDNESDAY. THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST AND ALSO SWD ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA THIS FORECAST PERIOD. VEERED LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT ACROSS FL WILL LIMIT CONVERGENCE. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ALONG/S OF THE FRONT OVER CENTRAL AND/OR SRN FL. DESPITE WEAK LAPSE RATES SOUTH OF THE FRONT...SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S SHOULD SUPPORT MODERATE INSTABILITY FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. A FEW STRONG-SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT WEAK LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND DECREASING TREND IN FORCING ALONG THE FRONT WILL LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL. ...SRN PLAINS TO OZARKS/LOWER MO VALLEY... LEE CYCLOGENESIS OVER ERN CO/SWRN KS AND WARM FRONTOGENESIS INTO THE SRN PLAINS ARE EXPECTED AS WLY MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS FROM THE SWRN STATES TO THE SRN PLAINS. MODELS SUGGEST SEVERAL LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL EJECT EWD TOWARD THE SRN PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF THE CLOSED LOW MOVING ONSHORE OVER CA. ONE OF THESE TROUGHS IS EXPECTED TO AID IN THE ESEWD MOVEMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW ALONG THE WARM INTO NRN OK WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE RETURN PER SLY FLOW ACROSS TX/OK EAST OF A DRY LINE WILL BE MODEST. THIS COMBINED WITH AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ARE EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE BASED STORMS ALONG THE DRY LINE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL/NRN TX INTO SRN OK. A GREATER THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALONG/N OF WARM FRONT AS THE SLY LLJ STRENGTHENS. WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND INSTABILITY BASED AROUND 700 MB WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED STORMS. EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT A FEW HAIL EVENTS...BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE FOR SEVERE HAIL IS LOW...AND THUS DOES NOT WARRANT HAIL PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME. ..PETERS.. 04/26/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Apr 28 06:05:18 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 28 Apr 2005 01:05:18 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200504280615.j3S6FlRo012723@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 280612 SWODY2 SPC AC 280611 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0111 AM CDT THU APR 28 2005 VALID 291200Z - 301200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSE GPT ESF SHV 40 E PRX PGO FSM HRO SLO IND DAY CMH UNI HTS TYS LGC PFN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 E ECG RWI RDU CLT AGS 45 W CTY ...CONT... 25 SSW BPT 60 SSW TYR 20 WNW PRX MKO TUL PNC 45 NE GAG DDC HLC HSI LNK OTM MLI CGX BEH AZO JXN DTW ERI BFD IPT ABE 35 SE NEL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM SVE 35 NE RBL MHS MFR EUG SLE PDX YKM ALW SUN BYI 60 NNW ENV EKO LOL SVE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W RTN 40 SW COS 30 NNW COS LIC LAA DHT TCC LVS 25 W RTN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ARKLATEX REGION TO LOWER/MID OH VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVE SRN STREAM PATTERN IS FCST TO PREVAIL THROUGH PERIOD. MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY APPROXIMATELY 20 NM OFFSHORE MRY -- IS FCST TO MOVE INLAND DAY-1 AND ACROSS GREAT BASIN. THIS FEATURE SHOULD ACCELERATE EWD ACROSS SRN ROCKIES AND SRN HIGH PLAINS AROUND BEGINNING OF PERIOD...AS NRN STREAM TROUGH NOW OVER ALBERTA DIGS SEWD. SRN TROUGH THEN WILL ACCELERATE EWD ACROSS OK AND OZARKS THEN NEWD OVER OH VALLEY...REACHING ERN INDIANA/WRN OH AREA BY 30/12Z. ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM OK NEWD ACROSS OZARKS AND LOWER OH VALLEY DURING DAY3...DEEPENING CONSIDERABLY WHILE ATTACHED COLD FRONT SWEEPS SEWD OVER SRN PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY. WARM FRONT SHOULD LIFT NWD ACROSS TN VALLEY REGION AND NERN AR/MO BOOTHEEL AREAS...AHEAD OF SFC LOW. ...LOWER MS VALLEY REGION TO CENTRAL/ERN GULF COAST... POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT REMAINS POSSIBLE -- PARTICULARLY ALONG AND JUST RIGHTWARD OF SFC CYCLONE TRACK...WHERE SHEAR/INSTABILITY COMBINATIONS SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED. BECAUSE OF INTENSE DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELDS...STORMS WILL BE FAST MOVING AND ANY SUSTAINED/DISCRETE SUPERCELLS THAT DO DEVELOP COULD PRODUCE LONG TRACK TORNADOES. MAIN FACTOR PRECLUDING OUTLOOK UPGRADE ATTM REMAINS UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING CONVECTIVE MODE -- PARTICULARLY...DURATION OF ANY THREAT FOR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS IN THAT ZONE OF ENHANCED SHEAR NEAR SFC CYCLONE...AND POTENTIAL FOR QUICK TRANSITION TO LINEAR/CLUSTERED CONVECTION. LATEST DRT/MAF RAOBS INDICATE SOME RELATIVELY STABLE LAYERS IN MIDLEVELS CORRESPONDING TO INCOMPLETE DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED MIXED LAYER. THIS REGIME ALOFT -- TRANSLATED NEWD -- INDICATES POTENTIAL FOR RELATIVELY UNCAPPED AIR MASS THAT WOULD SUPPORT RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM. VIGOROUS LOW LEVEL WAA REGIME THROUGH DAY1 AND EARLY DAY2 WILL COMBINE WITH SFC HEATING TO DESTABILIZE WRM SECTOR ACROSS ERN PORTION OF OUTLOOK AREA DURING DAY...AMIDST SFC DEW POINTS MOISTENING INTO 60S F. THIS LEADS TO AFTERNOON MLCAPES 1500-2000 J/KG IN MODIFIED ETA FCST SOUNDINGS. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR BOTH SUPERCELLS AND DAMAGING BOW ECHOES...WITH 70-80 KT MIDLEVEL FLOWS CONTRIBUTING TO SIMILAR VALUES OF AFTERNOON 0-6 KM LAYER SHEARS. NARROW AREA OF BACKED SFC FLOW INVOF WARM FRONT MAY PRODUCE 0-6 KM AND EFFECTIVE LAYER SHEARS AROUND 90 KT...AND 0-1 KM SRH EXCEEDING 200 J/KG. TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS THROUGHOUT LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING...PERHAPS BACKBUILDING AS FAR AS GULF COASTAL REGION OF MS/AL/FL PANHANDLE BY END OF PERIOD...WITH DAMAGING WIND BEING MAIN THREAT BUT SUPERCELLS/TORNADOES STILL POSSIBLE. ...OH VALLEY REGION... AS SFC LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND LIFT NEWD...VIGOROUS ISALLOBARIC FORCING WILL MAINTAIN/EXPAND BOTH BACKING OF SFC FLOW AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO POTENTIAL FOR STRONGLY FORCED...POSSIBLY LOW-TOPPED ARC OF CONVECTION MOVING RAPIDLY NEWD ACROSS REGION OVERNIGHT...WITH POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE. MAIN LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT SFC-BASED BUOYANCY...RELATED TO 1. WITH NEWD EXTENT...PROGRESSIVELY MORE INFLOW TRAJECTORIES ORIGINATING FROM RELATIVELY LOW THETAE AIR MASS OF CONTINENTAL ANTICYCLONE TO THE E/SE...AND 2. LIKELY WEAKENING TREND IN INSTABILITY WITH TIME...AS DIABATIC COOLING COUNTERACTS SFC WAA. ..EDWARDS.. 04/28/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Apr 28 17:43:55 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 28 Apr 2005 12:43:55 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200504281754.j3SHsNVh016705@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 281752 SWODY2 SPC AC 281751 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1251 PM CDT THU APR 28 2005 VALID 291200Z - 301200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W LIT 50 WSW ARG 15 NNW DYR 40 SW CKV 40 NNW MSL CBM 30 ENE JAN 45 NNE HEZ 30 WSW MLU 15 SW ELD 15 W LIT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE BPT 25 SE CLL 25 NE CLL 15 S PRX 30 WNW PGO 45 E TUL 15 WSW JLN 20 SSE TBN IND DAY CMH UNI HTS 40 SW HSS 25 ENE CSG PFN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E PSX 35 ESE AUS 30 N DAL 45 WSW MKO 35 WNW TUL PNC 45 NE GAG DDC HLC HSI LNK OTM MLI CGX BEH AZO JXN DTW ERI BFD IPT ABE 35 SE NEL ...CONT... 50 E ECG RWI RDU 20 ESE CLT 20 E AGS 35 WNW CTY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM SVE 35 NE RBL MHS MFR EUG SLE PDX YKM ALW SUN BYI 60 NNW ENV EKO LOL SVE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W RTN 40 SW COS 30 NNW COS LIC LAA DHT TCC LVS 25 W RTN. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL/ERN AR AND NRN LA EWD TO WRN TN AND CENTRAL/NRN MS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MODERATE RISK FROM ERN TX/ERN OK TO THE OH/TN VALLEYS AND CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES... ...WIDESPREAD THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER/MID MS AND LOWER TN VALLEYS REGION... ...SYNOPSIS... SHORT WAVE TROUGHS...ONE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO CA/NV AND THE SECOND APPROACHING THE NRN ROCKIES ATTM...ARE EXPECTED TO PHASE FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO LOWER TN VALLEY REGION BY FRIDAY NIGHT. A BROAD AND STRONG /70+ KT/ WSWLY MID LEVEL JET WILL ACCOMPANY THE SRN STREAM TROUGH AND IS EXPECTED TO NOSE INTO THE LOWER OH/LOWER TN VALLEYS BY 30/00Z. GIVEN THE BREADTH OF THIS MID-LEVEL JET...50+ KT WSWLY WINDS WILL EXTEND FROM SRN TX TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES DURING MUCH OF THE DAY 2 PERIOD. 12Z NAM IS SLOWER WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND FARTHER S WITH THE SURFACE LOW THAN ITS PREVIOUS RUNS...AND MORE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS/ECMWF/CMC TIMING OF THIS STORM SYSTEM. A SURFACE LOW AS INDICATED BY THE 12Z NAM IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER NORTH CENTRAL TX AT 12Z FRIDAY...WITH THIS LOW DEEPENING AS IT TRACKS NEWD PER STRONG HEIGHT FALLS WITH THE PHASING MID LEVEL TROUGHS. THIS LOW SHOULD BE OVER CENTRAL AR BY 30/00Z AND INTO CENTRAL OH BY 12Z SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND NEWD FROM THE SURFACE LOW INTO THE OH VALLEY...AND SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY. NAM SUGGESTS A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY/ SECONDARY WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY FROM CENTRAL AR EWD ALONG THE SRN TN BORDER. ...OZARKS TO ARKLATEX AND EWD ACROSS TN VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES... THUNDERSTORMS...POTENTIALLY SEVERE...ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ACROSS ERN OK INTO PORTIONS OF SRN MO/SWRN AR AS A RESULT OF WAA ALONG THE NOSE OF A 50 KT SWLY LLJ. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NEWD INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION ALONG THE NRN WARM FRONT. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SUPPORTED BY DEEP LAYER ASCENT/WAA AS THE LLJ TRANSLATES EWD TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND WITHIN THE EXIT REGION OF THE MID LEVEL JET. ALTHOUGH MODELS SUGGEST THE MAIN AXIS OF THE MID LEVEL JET WILL BE FROM NRN TX TO THE OH VALLEY...A SRN STREAM JET APPEARS TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY PROVIDING SUFFICIENT DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THIS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEFINE THE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY FOR THE FORMATION OF THE SECOND WARM FRONT. THIS BOUNDARY ALONG WITH A COLD FRONT AND DRY LINE TRAILING SSWWD FROM THE SURFACE LOW OVER CENTRAL AR BY 30/00Z WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCI FOR SEVERE STORMS BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE SLOWER TIMING OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALLOW MORE MOISTURE TO RETURN NWD WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR ALONG A STRENGTHENING SLY LLJ. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SURFACE HEATING WILL RESULT IN A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS /MLCAPE 2500+ J/KG/ ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR /50-60 KT/ WILL BE FAVORABLY ORIENTED FOR SUPERCELLS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES AND HAIL...ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE MODERATE RISK AREA ALONG AND EAST OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACK. THIS LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SEVERE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONGEAL INTO A SQUALL LINE AND MOVE ESEWD ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES WITH DAMAGING WINDS BECOMING THE PRIMARY THREAT FRIDAY NIGHT. ...OH VALLEY REGION... 12Z NAM SUGGESTS SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY INTO SRN IND/WRN KY PROMOTING AREAS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY BY EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THIS AREA. ...ERN TX... ALTHOUGH MUCH OF ERN TX WILL BE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE MID LEVEL JET AND THUS WILL HAVE RELATIVELY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...STRONG SURFACE HEATING MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE CAP BY MID-LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP...DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH SIGNIFICANT HAIL LIKELY GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES. ..PETERS.. 04/28/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 29 07:02:42 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 29 Apr 2005 02:02:42 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200504290713.j3T7D7nJ024356@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 290555 SWODY2 SPC AC 290555 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1255 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2005 VALID 301200Z - 011200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSE JAX 30 N PIE ...CONT... 30 W HUM 25 S MEI 15 SW TCL 35 W CHA 25 NE CHA 55 ESE CHA 15 W AHN 35 ESE AND 25 E HKY 35 SSE PSK 25 SW SHD 30 W MRB 25 ESE AOO 25 N CXY 35 SW ABE 10 SSW DOV 40 SSW WAL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NW VRB 20 SSW FMY ...CONT... 20 SSE BPT 25 E TUP 20 NE BNA 15 ESE LUK 50 SE DTW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 WNW 4OM 25 WSW YKM 30 NNW BKE 35 NE SUN 40 SSW LND 30 SSW LAR 25 WSW IML 20 NW HLC 15 ESE GCK 40 SE TAD 55 S ALS 60 WSW FMN 30 SW SGU 45 WNW BIH 35 SSW UKI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION SWWD TO THE CNTRL/ERN GULF COASTAL AREA... ...SYNOPSIS... A FAST FLOW REGIME ALONG THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE ONTARIO UPPER LOW WILL CARRY A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS AND INTO THE MID/LWR MS VLY FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AND EJECT NEWD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC/LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION BY SATURDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...A LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE MID-OH VLY EARLY SATURDAY TO QUEBEC BY EARLY SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE OH/TN VLYS EWD TO OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD SATURDAY NIGHT. WRN PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS NRN FL. THE FRONT/PRE-FRONTAL/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL BE THE FOCI FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE TSTMS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. ...MID-ATLANTIC/SERN STATES/NRN FL... BANDS OF TSTMS SHOULD BE ONGOING EARLY SATURDAY FROM THE OH VLY SWWD TO THE CNTRL GULF COASTAL AREA ALONG/AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BE STRONG-SEVERE... PRIMARILY FROM ERN TN SWWD THROUGH AL INTO SRN MS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. GULF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT NEWD INTO MUCH OF THE SERN STATES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION ON STRENGTHENING SSWLY LOW- LEVEL FLOW THROUGH SATURDAY. ATOP THE EXPANDING WARM SECTOR... WSWLY H5 FLOW AOA 70 KTS WILL SPREAD EWD THROUGH THE DAY...SETTING THE STAGE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS OVER A BROAD SWATH OF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. MAIN LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE MAGNITUDE OF BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING/ BUOYANCY ALONG RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES/PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. STRONGEST DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CNTRL/ERN GULF COAST NEWD INTO THE CAROLINAS...WITH DECREASING BUOYANCY FARTHER N INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. UNCERTAINTY ON THE MAGNITUDE OF DESTABILIZATION AND OVERALL MESOSCALE EVOLUTIONS PRECLUDES HIGHLIGHTING HIGHER PROBABILITIES WITHIN THE BROAD SLIGHT RISK AREA ATTM. ***SERN STATES*** TSTMS SHOULD INITIATE/INTENSIFY ALONG SERN EDGE OF MORNING CONVECTION ACROSS GA...AL...WRN FL PNHDL AND MOVE SEWD TOWARD THE COAST/NRN FL BY EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF HAIL... DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLD TORNADOES. BUT...THE SEVERE THREATS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH TIME AS STRONGEST LARGE SCALE FORCING PASSES THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. ***MID-ATLANTIC REGION/CAROLINAS*** STRONGER LARGE SCALE FORCING MAY COMPENSATE FOR LESS BUOYANCY FARTHER N...WITH TSTMS APT TO DEVELOP ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM SRN PA INTO THE CAROLINAS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. LOW/MID-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS TORNADOES. ERN EXTENT OF THE SEVERE THREAT WILL PROBABLY BE MODULATED BY MARINE BOUNDARY LAYER FROM DELMARVA NWD. ..RACY.. 04/29/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 29 16:51:23 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 29 Apr 2005 11:51:23 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200504291701.j3TH1nOD001974@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 291659 SWODY2 SPC AC 291658 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1158 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2005 VALID 301200Z - 011200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNW DAB 50 SSE CTY ...CONT... 25 SSE HUM 25 SE MEI BHM 45 SW TYS BLF 25 SSE EKN 25 ESE AOO 35 SSE IPT 10 SE AVP 15 SE POU 20 ENE ISP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE VRB 15 S FMY ...CONT... 30 SSE LCH GWO BNA 20 NW LEX 50 E TOL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 WNW 4OM 25 WSW YKM BKE BPI 30 WSW LAR 45 SW IML RSL 50 ENE GAG 40 WNW PVW ABQ 60 SW CEZ SGU NFL CEC. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL/ERN GULF COASTAL REGION NWD ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST INTO NJ/SRN NY... ...SYNOPSIS... SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE FROM THE NRN PLAINS SEWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY AND THEN NEWD INTO THE NERN STATES...AROUND A LARGE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED IN ONTARIO. A WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER SRN AZ...SHOULD MOVE RAPIDLY EWD IN STRONG SRN STREAM FROM CENTRAL TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION DURING THE DAY. AT THE SURFACE...A LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AND ACCELERATE NEWD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO UPSTATE NY DURING THE DAY...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT ADVANCING EWD ACROSS THE ERN QUARTER OF THE NATION. ...SERN STATES... ONGOING BAND OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM ERN TN/NWRN GA SWWD TO THE AL COAST AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. THESE STORMS MAY BE MARGINALLY SEVERE GIVEN SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S AND MUCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...WITH SURFACE LOW AND STRONGER DYNAMICAL FORCING LIFTING NWD AWAY FROM THE AREA ...SUSPECT STORMS MAY GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE EWD DURING THE MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...THIS BAND/LINE OF STORMS SHOULD INTENSIFY AND BECOME SEVERE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SC/ERN GA/FL PANHANDLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS HEATING AIDS IN STRONGER DESTABILIZATION OF AIR MASS. DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL SWLY FLOW AND THE EXPECTED LINEAR NATURE OF THE CONVECTION SUGGESTS WIND DAMAGE WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT. NAM IS FASTER WITH EWD PROGRESSION OF COLD FRONT ACROSS AL/GA AND ALSO DEVELOPS STRONGER INSTABILITY THAN GFS. WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION...EXPECT SWD PORTION OF FRONT TO BE A LITTLE SLOWER THAN GFS...AND WITH SOME CLEARING AFTER MORNING CONVECTION MOVES EWD...THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOPMENT APPEARS POSSIBLE ALONG FRONT FROM NRN GA SWWD INTO SRN AL/FL PANHANDLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. STORMS THAT DEVELOP WOULD BE IN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...THOUGH VEERED WIND PROFILES INDICATE HAIL IS THE MOSTLY LIKELY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. ...NC NWD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES INTO SRN NY... STRONGER LARGE SCALE FORCING MAY COMPENSATE FOR LESS BUOYANCY THAN AREAS TO THE SOUTH...WITH TSTMS LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN/FRONT FROM SRN PA INTO THE NC BY EARLY AFTERNOON. LOW/MID LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS. ALSO...STRONGER VEERING WIND PROFILES FROM ERN NC NWD INTO DELMARVA SUGGESTS ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE IF ENOUGH HEATING/INSTABILITY CAN MATERIALIZE. INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BE LIMITED FROM DELMARVA NEWD ACROSS NJ/SRN NY AREA... BUT IF A THUNDERSTORM LINE DOES DEVELOP ALONG COLD FRONT...STRONG ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS MAY SUPPORT SOME DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. ..IMY.. 04/29/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Apr 30 05:31:42 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 30 Apr 2005 00:31:42 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200504300542.j3U5g3qS004156@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 300540 SWODY2 SPC AC 300539 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1239 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2005 VALID 011200Z - 021200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ENE BLI 35 WSW YKM 55 SW PDT 30 SE OWY 30 SE MLD 45 S RWL 25 SSE LAR 10 E LIC 30 NW P28 15 NNW END 40 NE CSM 25 NNE TCC 15 N GUP 50 ENE DRA 40 NNE MER 30 SSW MHS 20 NNE EUG 45 NNW CLM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE MIA 20 WNW EYW ...CONT... 15 SSW CTY 45 NNW DAB. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... THE PERSISTENT ONTARIO UPPER VORTEX WILL BEGIN TO EDGE EWD ON SUNDAY WITH AN ACTIVE SRN STREAM CONTINUING FROM CA TO THE SERN STATES. SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SRN STREAM WILL BE DIFFICULT TO TIME. BUT...SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN TAKING THE H5 TROUGH NOW OVER THE SRN ROCKIES TO THE SERN STATES EARLY SUNDAY WHILE WEAKENING. AT THE SURFACE...THE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC/SERN STATES SATURDAY WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BY EARLY SUNDAY. SRN PART OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY SETTLE SLOWLY SWD THROUGH CNTRL AND PERHAPS SRN FL SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND BE THE FOCUS FOR TSTMS. ...CNTRL/SRN FL... BANDS OF TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ACROSS NRN OR CNTRL FL ALONG/N OF THE SWD MOVING COLD FRONT. BOUNDARY LAYER S OF THE FRONT/CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH UPPER 60S TO 70F SURFACE DEW POINTS ADVECTING NEWD ACROSS THE PENINSULA. GIVEN THAT THE H5 TROUGH AXIS WILL BE PASSING OVERHEAD THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON...TSTMS COULD INTENSIFY/DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT OR OTHER BOUNDARIES. THOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD DECREASE FROM N-S ACROSS FL...WLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW REGIME MAY ENCOURAGE A FEW STORMS TO BOW GIVING ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS. THE ISOLD SEVERE RISKS SHOULD MAINLY BE CONFINED TO THE EARLY PART OF THE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE FLOW BECOMES DIVERGENT OWING TO DEVELOPMENT OF A CNTRL GULF OF MEXICO WAVE CYCLONE TOWARD EVENING. ..RACY.. 04/30/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Apr 30 17:04:43 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 30 Apr 2005 12:04:43 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200504301715.j3UHF30b001134@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 301711 SWODY2 SPC AC 301710 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1210 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2005 VALID 011200Z - 021200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 E BLI YKM 55 SW PDT OWY 40 W SLC 15 SE VEL EGE 30 W COS 30 NNE TAD CAO 25 N CVS 40 E 4CR GUP 50 ENE DRA 40 NNE MER 30 SSW MHS EUG 25 W CLM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW CTY 45 NNW DAB. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... ONTARIO UPPER VORTEX WILL BEGIN TO EDGE SLOWLY EWD ON SUNDAY...WHILE SRN STREAM REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE SRN TIER OF THE COUNTRY. MID LEVEL WLY WINDS ACROSS THE SRN U.S. AND NWLY WINDS OVER THE NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS WILL RESULT IN CONFLUENCE ALOFT AND LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO COVER MUCH OF THE NATION. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS ACROSS MOST OF THE COUNTRY WITH MUCH BELOW NORMAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FOR EARLY MAY. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA AS A COLD FRONT... CURRENTLY MOVING EWD THROUGH THE ATLANTIC COASTAL STATES...MOVES SWD ACROSS THAT REGION ON SUNDAY. ...CNTRL/SRN FL PENINSULA... BAND OF TSTMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ACROSS THE CENTRAL FL PENINSULA. STORMS ARE LIKELY TO INTENSIFY BY MIDDAY AS DIURNAL HEATING RESULTS IN MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500 J/KG. HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG AND THE LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED WELL EAST OF THE PENINSULA. THIS SUGGESTS WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND ONLY A MINIMAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. ...SRN ROCKIES/GREAT BASIN AND PACIFIC NW... MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION INTO SUNDAY AND WITH DAYTIME HEATING...MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND LIFT NEAR HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. ..IMY.. 04/30/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 1 05:29:29 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 01 Apr 2005 00:29:29 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200504010528.j315SQGg009861@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 010526 SWODY2 SPC AC 010525 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1125 PM CST THU MAR 31 2005 VALID 021200Z - 031200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE CRE 10 SSE SOP 15 W DAN 25 SE EKN 30 ENE LBE 25 WSW IPT 10 NNW ABE 10 ENE ACY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S CTY 30 WSW SAV 40 N CAE 25 NNW HKY 25 NW BKW 25 SSW HLG 25 N FKL 30 NNE BUF ...CONT... 30 NNE PBG 20 ESE GFL 25 ENE ISP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE BIH 40 NNE MER 45 ESE RBL 70 NNE LMT 10 ESE PDT 35 SW MSO 30 NNE WEY 40 NNE EVW 45 S ELY 20 ENE BIH. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION... ...MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION... 01/00Z MODEL GUIDANCE IS TRENDING TO A SIGNIFICANT DEEPENING...AND NWD SOLUTION...OF SFC LOW AS INTENSE UPPER SPEED MAX...IN EXCESS OF 100 KT...EJECTS ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION SATURDAY. THIS EVOLUTION WILL ALLOW MODIFIED MOISTURE THAT IS ALREADY NEAR THE CAROLINA COAST TO EASILY SURGE NWD INTO THE DELMARVA REGION AHEAD OF EXPECTED SFC LOW TRACK. LATE DAY1/EARLY DAY2 FRONTAL POSITION SHOULD BE NEAR THE ERN PORTIONS OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS WRN VA/NC. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FAVOR A STRONGLY FORCED LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG ADVANCING COLD FRONT WHICH SHOULD PROGRESS RAPIDLY ACROSS THE CAROLINAS BY MID AFTERNOON. FARTHER NORTH...MODELS SUGGEST A NARROW ZONE OF CLEARING/STEEP LAPSE RATES MAY DEVELOP ACROSS VA INTO MD ALLOWING BOUNDARY LAYER TO BECOME MORE BUOYANT AHEAD OF DEEPENING SFC LOW. A SECONDARY LATE AFTERNOON MODE OF MORE INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS COULD EVOLVE THAT WOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE DELMARVA INTO THE EVENING HOURS. EXPECTED PROFILES SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORM DEVELOPMENT...WITH VERY STRONG FLOW JUST OFF THE SURFACE FAVORING DAMAGING WINDS...ESPECIALLY IF SQUALL LINE INDEED FORMS AS ANTICIPATED. ..DARROW.. 04/01/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 1 16:51:30 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 01 Apr 2005 11:51:30 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200504011650.j31GoPwF005060@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 011638 SWODY2 SPC AC 011637 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1037 AM CST FRI APR 01 2005 VALID 021200Z - 031200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW CHS 30 NNW RWI 55 ESE LYH 30 N LYH 50 W MRB PSB IPT ABE ACY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MSS GFL PVD ACK ...CONT... 25 NNW PIE 15 ENE JAX 30 NW CHS GSO SSU UNI CMH MFD CLE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS CAROLINAS TO MID ATLANTIC STATES... ...SYNOPSIS... MAJOR UPPER AIR FEATURE FOR THIS PERIOD WILL BE DEEP CYCLONE MOVING EWD ACROSS SRN APPALACHIANS THEN NEWD TOWARD MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THIS SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE FROM LOW NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER UPPER MS VALLEY...AFTER IT ABSORBS CIRCULATION NOW EVIDENT OVER MO/AR OZARKS. INTENSE SFC CYCLONE -- INITIALLY OVER WV...SHOULD MOVE TO OR REDEVELOP E OF MOUNTAINS IN VA THEN MOVE NEWD SLOWLY INTO CENTRAL/ERN PA...WHILE RAPIDLY OCCLUDING. SFC COLD FRONT...INITIALLY FROM WRN VA SWD ACROSS ERN SC AND SERN FL...WILL SWEEP OFFSHORE FL QUICKLY AND MOVE EWD ACROSS TIDEWATER REGION DURING DAY. BAROCLINIC GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONT MAY BE DIFFUSED BY PRECEDING PRECIP ACROSS MUCH OF REGION. ...TIDEWATER/ERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION... STRONG-SEVERE SQUALL LINE MAY BE ONGOING AT BEGINNING OF PERIOD...OR DEVELOPING EARLY IN PERIOD...ACROSS PORTIONS ERN CAROLINAS AND SRN VA. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVING NEWD THROUGH MORNING WITH PRIMARY SEVERE MODE BEING WIND DAMAGE. SEVERE POTENTIAL THEN SHOULD DIMINISH EARLY-MID AFTERNOON AS ACTIVITY MOVES OFFSHORE AND/OR INTO STABLE MARINE BOUNDARY LAYER OVER PORTIONS NEAR-COASTAL MID-ATLANTIC REGION. STRONG LOW LEVEL AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PROFILES ALSO WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS...EITHER EMBEDDED WITHIN MAIN CONVECTIVE BAND OR JUST AHEAD OF IT. BACKED BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW ESE-NE OF SFC LOW WILL ENHANCE VERTICAL SHEAR AND HODOGRAPH SIZE...HOWEVER...INITIAL EPISODE OF TSTMS MAY NOT BE ABLE TO TAKE FULLEST ADVANTAGE OF IT. ZONAL EXTENT OF SFC-BASED DESTABILIZATION WILL BE LIMITED BY ELY/ONSHORE COMPONENT OF FLOW OFF RELATIVELY COLD ATLANTIC WATERS. THEREFORE EXPECT GREATEST SFC-BASED BUOYANCY AND SEVERE POTENTIAL WHERE SFC FLOW IS LARGELY SLY...ACROSS ERN SC...ERN NC AND PERHAPS SRN CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION. BUOYANCY WILL BE LIMITED BY WEAK DEEP-LAYER LAPSE RATES...OFFSETTING 60S F SFC DEW POINTS TO KEEP MLCAPES LARGELY UNDER 500 J/KG IN MANY AREAS. HOWEVER...THIS STILL WILL BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SEVERE POTENTIAL GIVEN STRENGTH OF BOTH LINEAR FORCING AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. 50-60 KT GRADIENT FLOW WILL BE PRESENT JUST ABOVE BOUNDARY LAYER...WITH POTENTIAL FOR DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF MOMENTUM THROUGH SHORT DEPTH. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OFFSHORE BY 21Z. ...INTERIOR VA...CENTRAL/WRN MD...CENTRAL PA... SECONDARY SEVERE THREAT -- FROM CENTRAL PA SWD INTO NRN VA -- SPATIALLY OVERLAPS WITH NWRN PORTION OF INITIAL AREA BUT WOULD DEVELOP SEVERAL HOURS LATER. CONDITIONAL RISK EXISTS FOR SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT MID-LATE AFTERNOON...ASSOCIATED WITH LIMITED BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING AND STRONG COOLING ALOFT. ALTHOUGH SFC DESTABILIZATION WILL BE RESTRAINED BY EFFECTS OF PRIOR PRECIP/CONVECTION...POCKETS OF HEATING ARE POSSIBLE IN CLOUD BREAKS. THIS WILL AUGMENT EFFECTS OF CONSIDERABLE MIDLEVEL ASCENT ON STEEPENING LAPSE RATES. THEREFORE...MERIDIONAL LOBE OF MLCAPE TO NEAR 500 J/KG IS POSSIBLE...DESPITE RELATIVELY COOL SFC TEMPS. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES STILL WILL BE FAVORABLE UNTIL PASSAGE OF SFC LOW...WITH 70-90 KT MIDLEVEL FLOW CONTRIBUTING TO VERY LONG DEEP-LAYER HODOGRAPHS AND 0-6 KM SHEARS EXCEEDING 75 KT. ..EDWARDS.. 04/01/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Apr 2 07:04:41 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 02 Apr 2005 02:04:41 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200504020703.j3273YYA026951@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 020702 SWODY2 SPC AC 020700 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0100 AM CST SAT APR 02 2005 VALID 031200Z - 041200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NNE DVL 30 W FAR 25 SE ABR 25 NNE PIR 20 W REJ 15 ENE SHR 35 WSW WRL 45 SSW BPI 25 WNW DPG 30 ENE U31 50 ESE RBL 30 SSW EKA. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR AIR MASS MODIFICATION ACROSS THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE DAY2 PERIOD. RETURN FLOW WILL BE ENHANCED BY LEE TROUGHING AS UPPER HEIGHTS FALL ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW/GREAT BASIN REGION. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR PACIFIC NW BENEATH THE UPPER TROUGH...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WHILE DOWNSTREAM WARM ADVECTION ACROSS ERN MT/WRN DAKOTAS WILL FAVOR LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITHIN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE/MOIST ENVIRONMENT. MARITIME AIR MASS WILL NOT BE ADVECTED INTO THIS REGION DURING THE DAY2 PERIOD THUS SEVERE PROBABILITIES WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 5 PERCENT. ..DARROW.. 04/02/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Apr 2 17:10:19 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 02 Apr 2005 12:10:19 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200504021709.j32H9E6P000510@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 021707 SWODY2 SPC AC 021706 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1106 AM CST SAT APR 02 2005 VALID 031200Z - 041200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 NNW GFK 30 W FAR ABR 25 N PIR 81V WRL BPI SLC U31 RBL 35 SSW EKA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PSM 30 NNW PWM BGR EPM. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... INTENSE CLOSED LOW OVER THE NERN UNITED STATES WILL BE EJECTED NEWD INTO NEW BRUNSWICK...AS A DEEPENING TROUGH DROPS SEWD INTO THE WRN U.S ALTHOUGH THE WRN U.S TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN THE LEESIDE TROUGH AND SLY FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS...DEEPER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RETURN WILL WAIT UNTIL AFTER THIS PERIOD. DESPITE LIMITED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS THE CONUS...CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE ME COAST AND ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW AND NRN ROCKIES/PLAINS. THE REST OF THE COUNTRY SHOULD BE TOO DRY AND STABLE FOR CONVECTION. ...ME... FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LESS THAN 50 J/KG OF MUCAPE AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL LOW...WITH NEARLY SATURATED VERTICAL TEMPERATURE PROFILES ABOVE A COOL AND STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION MAY PROVIDE SUFFICIENT LIFT FOR ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES OFFSHORE AND NEAR THE COASTLINE...WHERE THE WARMER OCEAN WATERS WOULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY MORE INSTABILITY. ...PACIFIC NW... SIGNIFICANT COOLING ALOFT AND LARGE SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH SHOULD STEEPEN LAPSE RATES AND RESULT IN WEAK INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD BE RESTRICTED MAINLY TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WHEN INSTABILITY WOULD BE MAXIMIZED. ...NRN PLAINS.. STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN A CAPPING INVERSION BETWEEN 750-850 MB. HOWEVER...WITH LAPSE RATES FORECAST TO BE NEAR 8.0C/KM ABOVE THE CAP...A 40-50 KT LOW LEVEL JET MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT FROM ERN MT EWD ACROSS ND AND NRN SD. ..IMY.. 04/02/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Apr 3 05:59:21 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 03 Apr 2005 00:59:21 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200504030558.j335wB7q007215@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 030555 SWODY2 SPC AC 030554 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1154 PM CST SAT APR 02 2005 VALID 041200Z - 051200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 E ELO 60 SSE DLH 15 SSE MSP 10 E OTG 25 SW YKN 30 N EAR 30 NNW DDC 35 N AMA 15 SE TCC 30 SW GNT 20 NW IGM 40 E BIH 30 SW NFL 75 SE 4LW 60 N BOI 35 N HVR. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST ERN PACIFIC MID LEVEL SPEED MAX WILL DIG ACROSS THE SRN GREAT BASIN INTO THE TX PANHANDLE LATE IN THE PERIOD WHERE H5 FLOW WILL LIKELY EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. OF PARTICULAR CONCERN FOR DEEP CONVECTION IS THE EXPECTED SLOW MODIFICATION OF MARITIME AIR MASS OVER THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE ABSENCE OF SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE SRN/CNTRL PLAINS. THIS PROCESS WILL NOT PROVE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG STORMS DURING THE DAY2 PERIOD ALONG/AHEAD OF DRY LINE/COLD FRONT FROM NEB...SOUTH. HOWEVER...FARTHER NORTH...MID LEVEL MOISTENING ACROSS THE CNTRL ROCKIES AND A SWLY DEEP LAYER TRAJECTORY WILL ENHANCE THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO POSSIBLY MN LATE IN THE PERIOD. IN ADDITION...ALTHOUGH MEAGER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL EXIST ACROSS THIS REGION A NARROW ZONE OF STEEP LAPSE RATES MAY PROVE ADEQUATE FOR A FEW HIGH BASED STORMS NEAR THE FRONT ACROSS SD INTO SCNTRL ND DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WARM ADVECTION SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY FORCING MECHANISM FOR EWD DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ..DARROW.. 04/03/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Apr 4 17:51:04 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 04 Apr 2005 12:51:04 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200504041749.j34Hnoou022790@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 041747 SWODY2 SPC AC 041746 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1246 PM CDT MON APR 04 2005 VALID 051200Z - 061200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW PRX 35 W MKO 25 SE PNC 20 SE P28 40 SE DDC 45 N DDC 15 W HLC 35 W EAR 15 SSE BUB 10 SW YKN 25 SW OTG 20 S FRM 20 W ALO 30 SE BRL 10 SE ALN MDH 30 SSW DYR 40 S GLH 50 WNW POE 40 W LFK 60 WSW TYR 25 WNW PRX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE HOU 40 S AUS 20 W TPL 20 NW DAL 40 E FSI 35 E CSM 55 SSW GAG 40 N AMA 10 SE CAO TAD COS 25 E FCL 25 S CDR 45 NE RAP 45 SW BIS 60 NNE BIS 25 N DVL 75 NNW GFK ...CONT... 45 W ART 10 NE ROC 40 SE BUF 25 N BFD 10 SW ERI 35 WNW CLE 30 E LAF 20 S HUF EVV 15 NE CKV 30 NNW HSV 20 E MSL 15 SSW MEI 35 ESE 7R4. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THE CNTRL U.S. FROM CNTRL/ERN KS/NEB/OK ACROSS A SMALL PART OF NERN TX AND NRN LA TO THE MS RIVER... ...SYNOPSIS... VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY MOVING OVER THE LWR CO RIVER VLY...IS FCST TO EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS BY EARLY TUESDAY. IN RESPONSE TO INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND STRONG MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING EAST FROM THE ROCKIES...LEE-SIDE CYCLONE WILL CONSOLIDATE OVER WRN KS BY EARLY IN THE PERIOD BEFORE TRACKING SLOWLY EAST AS AN OCCLUDED LOW. INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL FLOW BENEATH STRONG CAP ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS WILL ALLOW FOR EFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TRANSPORT NWD INTO THE CYCLONE CIRCULATION. THIS PROCESS WAS ALREADY UNDERWAY ACROSS TX/OK THIS MORNING WHERE LOW-MID 50S F SFC DEWPOINTS WERE COMMON. MORNING MODELS ARE CONTINUING A TREND OF BEING SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE TRACK OF THE MID LEVEL LOW. THIS SLOWER MOVEMENT SHOULD ALLOW FOR MODEST AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION DURING THE DAY TUESDAY BEFORE UPPER SYSTEM/SFC LOW AND DRYLINE MOVE EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS. ...OK/KS TO NEB/IA... WITH POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST MID 50S F SFC DEWPOINTS AS FAR NORTH AS NEB...AND STRONG MID LEVEL FORCING MAINTAINING STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...EXPECT WARM SECTOR DESTABILIZATION TO FUEL INCREASINGLY VIGOROUS TSTMS WITHIN LOW TO MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE FROM CNTRL KS TO NEB AND EAST TO IA. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WILL LIKELY FORM AND INCREASE NEAR LOW CENTER...ON THE KS/OK BORDER AREA...FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING. WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES ACROSS MUCH OF THIS REGION WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT MARGINAL DUE TO SLACK MID LEVEL FLOW NEAR THE LOW CENTER AND DEFORMATION AXIS...STRENGTH OF FORCING AND STEEP LAPSE RATES...COUPLED WITH BACKGROUND VORTICITY NEAR LOW CENTER...COULD SUPPORT A FEW SUPERCELLS EMBEDDED WITHIN LARGER ARC OF CONVECTION. LARGE HAIL AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THIS ACTIVITY. ...ERN OK/SERN KS ACROSS OZARKS TO MS VLY... MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE OVER ECNTRL OK BY LATE AFTERNOON. AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO BE MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND ORIENTATION OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTORS PERPENDICULAR TO THE LOW LEVEL FORCING WOULD SUGGEST INITIAL STORMS MAY BE DISCRETE SUPERCELLS. WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL RESULT IN A RELATIVELY HIGH LFC TO COUNTER TORNADO POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...LAPSE RATES AND SHEAR WILL SUPPORT LARGE HAIL AS WELL AS DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS. THIS ACTIVITY MAY EVOLVE INTO SHORT LINE SEGMENTS WHILE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE OZARKS THROUGH LATE EVENING. STRONG MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION AND 50-60KT MID LEVEL JET NOSING INTO THE BACK OF THE DRYLINE WOULD FURTHER SUPPORT THE EVOLUTION INTO A SQUALL LINE WITH DAMAGING WINDS SPREADING EAST TO THE MS RIVER THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. ..CARBIN.. 04/04/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Apr 7 04:52:47 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 06 Apr 2005 23:52:47 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200504070451.j374pWxk003024@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 070449 SWODY2 SPC AC 070448 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1148 PM CDT WED APR 06 2005 VALID 081200Z - 091200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW AQQ 35 SW TOI 35 SSE HSV 20 SW LOZ 25 NNE BKW 35 SW DCA 25 ENE SBY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 S EKA 45 S EKA 25 SSW SVE 15 WSW EKO 15 WSW MLD 25 NNW COD 65 N SHR 25 NE REJ 50 ENE CDR 25 SE FCL 35 SSE 4BL 35 E IGM 20 ENE DAG 40 WNW BFL MRY. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SERN U.S... SERN U.S. UPPER LOW WILL FILL SLOWLY AS IT SHIFTS EWD ACROSS GA THEN OFF THE SC COAST LATE IN THE PERIOD. VERTICAL SHEAR BENEATH THIS FEATURE WILL GRADUALLY WANE WHILE WLY FLOW DEEPENS ACROSS THE PENINSULA LESSENING WIND PROFILES FARTHER SOUTH. LATEST THINKING IS A SWD-SAGGING BAND OF CONVECTION...PARTIALLY ENHANCED BY VEERED LLJ...WILL STRETCH ACROSS SOUTH FL EARLY IN THE PERIOD. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD PROPAGATE OFFSHORE AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES EWD FORCING LARGE SCALE LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE INTO THE WRN ATLANTIC. MUCH OF THE FL PENINSULA NORTH OF THIS CONVECTION MAY HAVE DIFFICULTY CONVECTING LATER IN THE DAY...ALTHOUGH HEATING BENEATH THE UPPER LOW ACROSS GA MAY PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WEAK INSTABILITY BENEATH THE UPPER LOW AND MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL TO JUST A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR HAIL. CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTH FL EARLY IN THE PERIOD SHOULD BE MORE ORGANIZED BUT STORM MODE/ORIENTATION SUGGEST A LOW PROBABILITY FOR DAMAGING WINDS. ..DARROW.. 04/07/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Apr 7 17:23:03 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 07 Apr 2005 12:23:03 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200504071721.j37HLmOX017689@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 071710 SWODY2 SPC AC 071709 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1209 PM CDT THU APR 07 2005 VALID 081200Z - 091200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 N ONP 45 NE LMT 50 WNW WMC 40 NW ENV 60 WNW BPI 55 SW BIL 45 SW MLS 35 W REJ 35 NE CDR 55 W GLD 35 SSE ALS 50 NNE INW 40 SW LAS 25 WNW FAT 35 WSW UKI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE MOB 20 SSW TCL 45 NNE HSV 20 WSW LOZ 25 NNE BKW 35 SW DCA 25 ENE SBY. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...FL... AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS GA DURING THE DAY 2 PERIOD AS STRONG ASCENT SPREADS EWD ACROSS THE NRN FL PENINSULA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SFC HEATING AND 60+ SFC DEWPOINTS SHOULD RESULT IN LOCALLY MODERATE INSTABILITY. THIS COMBINED WITH THE STRONG LIFT SOUTHEAST OF THE UPPER-LOW SHOULD PROMOTE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY MIDDAY. STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE PRESENT SOUTH OF THE UPPER-LOW WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN ABOUT 30 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THIS COMBINED WITH COLD TEMPS ALOFT...UNIDIRECTIONAL LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A WIND DAMAGE OR HAIL THREAT FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE THREAT WILL BE DEPENDENT HOW MUCH INSTABILITY DEVELOPS AND HOW STRONG THE SHEAR IS FRIDAY ACROSS NRN AND CNTRL FL. FOR THIS REASON...AN UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK MAY BECOME NECESSARY IN LATER OUTLOOKS. ...GA/CAROLINAS... AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY FILL TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE LOW MOVES EWD ACROSS GA INTO THE ATLANTIC DURING THE DAY 2 PERIOD. STRONG LIFT AND COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LOW SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FRIDAY ACROSS THE SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS AND ATLANTIC COASTAL PLAINS. HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS DUE TO THE COLD AIR ALOFT ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE INSTABILITY IS LOCALLY MAXIMIZED. HOWEVER...RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR PROFILES SHOULD KEEP THE HAIL THREAT MARGINAL. ..BROYLES.. 04/07/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 8 05:46:42 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 08 Apr 2005 00:46:42 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200504080545.j385jT8l026323@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 080543 SWODY2 SPC AC 080542 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1242 AM CDT FRI APR 08 2005 VALID 091200Z - 101200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SW JMS GFK BJI STC MKT OMA 30 NW CNK MCK LBF ANW 9V9 60 SW JMS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 NW CMX AUW DBQ IRK SZL 35 NE CNU HUT LBL CAO 10 S LVS ABQ PRC LAS 45 N DRA 15 NE MLF BYI 45 NW SUN 27U DLN 10 NW WRL 35 SW RAP 10 ESE PHP DIK SDY 70 NNE OLF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS.... STRONG UPPER JET STREAK IS EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY EXTENDING ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL INTO EAST CENTRAL PACIFIC. AS IT NOSES EASTWARD THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...MODELS SUGGEST THIS FEATURE WILL BREAK DOWN INTO SERIES OF AMPLIFYING SHORT WAVE TROUGHS FROM THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC INTO THE ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS REGION OF THE U.S. ONE SHORT WAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER JET HAS ALREADY PROGRESSED INLAND ACROSS CALIFORNIA INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN. MODELS SUGGEST THIS IMPULSE WILL LIFT INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY 12Z SATURDAY...AS MORE VIGOROUS UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE DIGS ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC COAST INTO THE GREAT BASIN. LEAD SYSTEM IS THEN PROGGED TO PIVOT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAKOTAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BEFORE EVENTUALLY EVOLVING INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY EARLY SUNDAY. THIS WILL OCCUR AS UPSTREAM SYSTEM ALSO EVOLVES INTO A CLOSED LOW WHILE PROGRESSING ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL ROCKIES. IN RESPONSE TO EVOLVING UPPER PATTERN...DEEP SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS BY EARLY SATURDAY. PRIMARY SURFACE CYCLONE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL ONLY PROGRESS SLOWLY ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTAS. HOWEVER...MODELS SUGGEST SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS MAY COMMENCE ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO AS EARLY AS SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE CONTINUING ACROSS THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. DESPITE VERY FAVORABLE SYNOPTIC PATTERN...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL APPEARS LIKELY TO REMAIN RATHER LIMITED THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. LACK OF RETURN FLOW FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO/LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY REGION WILL BE PRIMARY MITIGATING FACTOR. BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THIS REGION WILL STILL BE IN RECOVERY PROCESS IN WAKE OF VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH EXITING THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST REGION. HOWEVER...MODELS DO SUGGEST LINGERING MOISTURE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT...GIVEN STRONG LIFT/STEEPENING LAPSE RATES...TO SUPPORT SOME SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THE PLAINS SATURDAY. PRIMARY THREAT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... WHERE INHIBITION WILL BE WEAKEST DUE TO MID-LEVEL COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH. ...NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH/LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AXIS CURVING ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH THE EASTERN DAKOTAS BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON APPEARS LIKELY TO BECOME FOCUS FOR MAXIMUM DESTABILIZATION. DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD EVOLVE THROUGH THE DAY ALONG THIS AXIS...WITH CAPE OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG EXPECTED BY PEAK HEATING. ENHANCED CONVERGENCE NEAR DRY LINE/TROUGH INTERSECTION ACROSS CENTRAL OR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA MAY PROVIDE STRONGEST FORCING FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...WITH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE/WARM ADVECTION ALONG/EAST OF INSTABILITY AXIS LIKELY TO SUPPORT ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY NORTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES AND ONLY MODERATELY STRONG SOUTHERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL LIMIT SHEAR...BUT THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO HAIL/WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING SEVERE LIMITS. SEVERE THREAT SHOULD END FAIRLY EARLY SATURDAY EVENING AS SURFACE-BASED STORMS DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING...BUT ADDITIONAL STORMS...PERHAPS WITH SOME HAIL...MAY DEVELOP EASTWARD IN WARM ADVECTION REGIME ACROSS PARTS OF MINNESOTA/IOWA. AS STRONG JET STREAK BEGINS TO DEVELOP EAST OF SOUTHERN ROCKIES CLOSED LOW SATURDAY NIGHT...MID/UPPER FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WILL BECOME FOCUSED ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN KANSAS INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. IN CONJUNCTION WITH LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION NORTH/EAST OF DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW...ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...LATEST MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST FORCING MAY NOT BE SUFFICIENT TO OVERCOME CAP GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN. ..KERR.. 04/08/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 8 17:16:22 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 08 Apr 2005 12:16:22 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200504081715.j38HF6PI005091@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 081712 SWODY2 SPC AC 081711 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1211 PM CDT FRI APR 08 2005 VALID 091200Z - 101200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW RSL 45 SSW HLC 35 WSW HLC 15 SSE MCK 30 NW GRI 30 NNE OFK 30 WNW OTG 30 WSW MKT 20 NNE MCW 35 WSW ALO 20 SE DSM 15 NE STJ 30 E SLN 15 SSW RSL. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NNE DVL 45 NW GFK 45 SW GFK 20 NE JMS 45 ENE BIS 40 E ISN 55 N ISN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE ELO 45 SW IWD 30 NNW DBQ 35 E IRK 25 SW SZL 25 N PNC 25 SW DHT 35 N SOW PRC 40 NW IGM 35 SSW P38 60 E ELY 55 SSE TWF 30 N SUN 20 ESE 27U 15 SE DLN WRL 50 WSW RAP 30 NE RAP 30 SSW Y22 10 WSW SDY 70 NNE OLF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF ND... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...NRN PLAINS... A WELL-DEVELOPED UPPER-TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD INTO THE ROCKIES BY THE DAY 2 PERIOD AS AN UPPER-LOW EMBEDDED IN THE TROUGH CLOSES OFF OVER THE NRN PLAINS. STRONG ASCENT WITH THE UPPER-LOW SHOULD SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS ND SATURDAY. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE MOST WIDESPREAD EAST AND NORTH OF A SFC LOW THAT IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF NWRN ND. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THIS AREA BY 00Z SUN SHOW A RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER. HOWEVER...THE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL FORCING COMBINED WITH COLD TEMPS ALOFT AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD RESULT IN HAIL POTENTIAL WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. THE STORMS SHOULD TRACK NNEWD ACROSS ND DURING THE AFTERNOON REACHING SRN CANADA BY THE EVENING HOURS. ...CNTRL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... A COLD FRONT WILL ORGANIZE AND MOVE SWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS WITH A DRYLINE IN PLACE FROM ERN NEB EXTENDING SSWWD INTO CNTRL KS. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S F AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE ALONG WITH SFC HEATING MAY INITIATE ISOLATED STORMS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN NEB OR NCNTRL KS. STORM COVERAGE SHOULD EXPAND AFTER DARK AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT INCREASES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THE CONVECTION SHOULD ORGANIZE ALONG THE FRONT AND EXPAND NNEWD INTO SERN NEB AND IA. A NNEWD STORM MOTION SHOWN BY FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS THE CONVECTION WOULD QUICKLY BECOMING ELEVATED BEHIND THE FRONT. IN ADDITION...06Z FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH SUFFICIENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY FOR SEVERE STORMS. THE MAIN THREAT WILL LIKELY BE HAIL DUE TO THE STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ELEVATED NATURE OF THE STORMS. ..BROYLES.. 04/08/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 8 17:22:32 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 08 Apr 2005 12:22:32 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200504081721.j38HLHXE010816@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 081717 SWODY2 SPC AC 081716 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1216 PM CDT FRI APR 08 2005 VALID 091200Z - 101200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW RSL 45 SSW HLC 35 WSW HLC 15 SSE MCK 30 NW GRI 30 NNE OFK 30 WNW OTG 30 WSW MKT 20 NNE MCW 35 WSW ALO 20 SE DSM 15 NE STJ 30 E SLN 15 SSW RSL. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NNE DVL 45 NW GFK 45 SW GFK 20 NE JMS 45 ENE BIS 40 E ISN 55 N ISN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE ELO 45 SW IWD 30 NNW DBQ 35 E IRK 25 SW SZL 25 N PNC 25 SW DHT 35 N SOW PRC 40 NW IGM 35 SSW P38 60 E ELY 55 SSE TWF 30 N SUN 20 ESE 27U 15 SE DLN WRL 50 WSW RAP 30 NE RAP 30 SSW Y22 10 WSW SDY 70 NNE OLF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF ND... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...NRN PLAINS... A WELL-DEVELOPED UPPER-TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD INTO THE ROCKIES BY THE DAY 2 PERIOD AS AN UPPER-LOW EMBEDDED IN THE TROUGH CLOSES OFF OVER THE NRN PLAINS. STRONG ASCENT WITH THE UPPER-LOW SHOULD SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS ND SATURDAY. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE MOST WIDESPREAD EAST AND NORTH OF A SFC LOW THAT IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF NWRN ND. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THIS AREA BY 00Z SUN SHOW A RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER. HOWEVER...THE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL FORCING COMBINED WITH COLD TEMPS ALOFT AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD RESULT IN HAIL POTENTIAL WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. THE STORMS SHOULD TRACK NNEWD ACROSS ND DURING THE AFTERNOON REACHING SRN CANADA BY THE EVENING HOURS. ...CNTRL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... A COLD FRONT WILL ORGANIZE AND MOVE SWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS WITH A DRYLINE IN PLACE FROM ERN NEB EXTENDING SSWWD INTO CNTRL KS. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S F AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE ALONG WITH SFC HEATING MAY INITIATE ISOLATED STORMS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN NEB OR NCNTRL KS. STORM COVERAGE SHOULD EXPAND AFTER DARK AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT INCREASES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THE CONVECTION SHOULD ORGANIZE ALONG THE FRONT AND EXPAND NNEWD INTO SERN NEB AND IA. A NNEWD STORM MOTION SHOWN BY FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS THE CONVECTION WOULD QUICKLY BECOMING ELEVATED BEHIND THE FRONT. IN ADDITION...06Z FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH SUFFICIENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY FOR SEVERE STORMS. THE MAIN THREAT WILL LIKELY BE HAIL DUE TO THE STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ELEVATED NATURE OF THE STORMS. ..BROYLES.. 04/08/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Apr 16 04:55:09 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 15 Apr 2005 23:55:09 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200504160453.j3G4rS32017651@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 160451 SWODY2 SPC AC 160450 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1150 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2005 VALID 171200Z - 181200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE ALM 25 WNW 4CR 20 NW LVS 45 SE RTN 30 SE DHT PVW 20 NNW MAF 40 SSE CNM 35 SE ALM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE DMN 30 SW ABQ 60 W PUB 50 E FCL 40 ENE CDR 30 SSE 9V9 30 S SUX 45 SE SLN 20 NNW FSI 40 NNE SJT DRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNE OLF 50 WNW MLS 45 S BIL 20 W WEY 45 NE 27U 10 SSW 3DU 60 SSW CTB 40 NW CTB. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN MN THROUGH PARTS OF W TX... ...CNTRL AND ERN NM THROUGH W TX AND THE TX/OK PANHANDLES... SELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL MAINTAIN PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OF W TX AND NM THROUGH SUNDAY...DOWNSTREAM FROM A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER SRN CA. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH NM SUNDAY AND INTO THE SRN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL PERSIST ABOVE THE MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...CONTRIBUTING TO MAXIMUM MLCAPES FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG WHERE SURFACE HEATING DEVELOPS. A 35 TO 40 KT SLY LOW LEVEL JET MAY HELP SUSTAIN STORMS FROM ERN NM THROUGH W TX INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD DESTABILIZE UPSTREAM IN THE WAKE OF THIS ACTIVITY WITH NEW STORMS LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NM. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE ENHANCED BY A MODEST MID LEVEL JET ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ABOVE SELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW. SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE. ACTIVITY MAY CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE OR MORE STORM CLUSTERS AS IT SPREADS EWD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OF NM...W TX AND WRN OK DURING THE EVENING...SUPPORTED BY AN INTENSIFYING SLY LOW LEVEL JET. ...CNTRL PLAINS... OTHER MORE ISOLATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP FARTHER NWD THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS...MAINLY ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF THE MOIST AXIS WHERE DEEPER MIXING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO WEAKEN CAP. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE WEAK. HOWEVER...HIGH BASED STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. ..DIAL.. 04/16/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Apr 16 17:06:30 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 16 Apr 2005 12:06:30 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200504161704.j3GH4lIC032244@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 161702 SWODY2 SPC AC 161701 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1201 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2005 VALID 171200Z - 181200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N HOB 30 ESE ROW 35 WSW ROW 50 SSE 4CR 45 N 4CR 20 N LVS 35 ENE RTN 35 NE CAO 25 NW AMA 35 W PVW 40 N HOB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE DMN 20 ENE GNT DRO 45 SW MTJ 15 N GJT 35 E CAG 40 ENE CYS 50 E CDR 20 SW PIR 45 WNW HON 50 ENE ATY 45 NNE MSP GRB 25 NNE BEH 20 S FWA 10 ENE IND 20 NW DNV 35 NE MLI 15 S ALO 55 SW FOD 25 W OMA 45 SSW P28 55 WSW ABI 35 ESE P07. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W BZN 20 SE MQM 35 SSE TWF 20 WNW EKO 75 NNW WMC 40 ESE BNO 20 SSE BKE 15 NNE S80 35 NW MSO 45 NNE 3DU 25 W BZN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW REGIME EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD AND PAC NW TROUGH DIGS SEWD INTO THE GREAT BASIN. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK FRONT THAT DROPPED SEWD OVERNIGHT IN WAKE OF AN IMPULSE NOW CROSSING THE UPPER MS VLY...WILL RETURN NWD ON SUNDAY. LEE-TROUGH ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND INTENSIFY AS UPSTREAM HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT TROUGH. BOTH THE WARM FRONT AND LEE-TROUGH WILL BE THE FOCI FOR TSTMS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. ...SRN HIGH PLAINS... BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO MOISTEN ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...VIA BOTH RETURN FLOW AND RECYCLED MOISTURE FROM NIGHTLY TSTM CLUSTERS. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...50-55F SURFACE DEW POINTS SHOULD BE COMMON ACROSS THE NM HIGH PLAINS BENEATH STEEP MID-TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES. ANY MORNING LOW-CLOUDS SHOULD DISSOLVE...ALLOWING THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS BOUNDARY LAYERS TO DESTABILIZE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TSTMS SHOULD INITIATE ALONG THE HIGHER NM MOUNTAINS AS WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE UPSLOPE FLOW IS ENHANCED BY DIFFERENTIAL HEATING. VENTING OF THE MID-UPPER LEVELS COULD BE AIDED BY A WEAK IMPULSE /NOW OVER NWRN AZ/ EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS NM SUNDAY AFTERNOON... CREATING AN ENVIRONMENT SLIGHTLY MORE CONDUCIVE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION. MOREOVER...30-35 KT H5 WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE ATOP 10-15 KTS OF SELY FLOW WILL AUGMENT THE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILE SUFFICIENTLY TO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS. STORMS WILL PROBABLY GROW STRONGER ON THE ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREAT. ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD EWD TOWARD THE OK/TX PNHDLS LATER SUNDAY EVENING AS THE AXIS OF THE LLJ DEVELOPS FROM NWRN TX TO THE CNTRL PLAINS. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD TRANSITION INTO MAINLY A HIGH WIND THREAT AS STORMS COALESCE INTO CLUSTERS/LINE SEGMENTS. ...CNTRL PLAINS... TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN STRENGTHENING LOW/MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. A CLUSTER OR TWO OF STORMS MAY EVOLVE FROM THE EXPECTED SRN HIGH PLAINS ACTIVITY SUNDAY EVENING AND DEVELOP/MOVE NEWD INTO WRN KS...CNTRL NEB AND SCNTRL SD BY 12Z MONDAY. ISOLD LARGE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS. ...UPPER MS VLY/MIDWEST... A FEW TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG/N OF THE H5 RIDGE AXIS AND SURFACE WARM FRONT FROM THE UPPER MS VLY SEWD TO THE MIDWEST SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGHEST PROBABILITIES WILL EXIST SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE UPPER MS VLY. ATTM...SEVERE PROBABILITIES WILL REMAIN SUB-FIVE PERCENT GIVEN LACK OF SUBSTANTIAL INSTABILITY. ...NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/NRN ROCKIES... AS STEEPER LAPSE RATES SPREAD EWD ALONG/N OF A 55-60 KT CYCLONIC JET...SPORADIC TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. HIGHEST TSTM PROBABILITIES SHOULD EXIST ACROSS ERN ORE AND WRN ID DURING SUNDAY EVENING. ..RACY.. 04/16/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Apr 17 05:38:16 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 17 Apr 2005 00:38:16 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200504170536.j3H5aXA7007765@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 170534 SWODY2 SPC AC 170533 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1233 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2005 VALID 181200Z - 191200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSW P07 25 ESE HOB 45 ENE CVS 20 N DHT 45 ESE LAA 25 WNW GCK 10 NE GCK 15 SSW DDC 30 WNW CSM 35 W SPS 30 N BWD 30 E JCT 60 W COT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NE MQT 20 SSW MTW 45 W MMO 10 NW UIN 35 ESE OJC 20 SSW PNC 20 S OKC 35 NNW DAL 20 SSE ACT 45 ESE SAT 55 SSE LRD ...CONT... 50 SW MRF 35 S CNM 50 NNE ROW 45 SE RTN 50 NNW LAA 25 NW AKO CYS 45 NNW CAG 40 NE PUC 25 SSW DPG 45 SSW TWF 45 W SUN 35 ESE 27U 30 ESE LVM 30 SE MLS 40 S P24 80 NNW GFK. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE NWRN STATES THROUGH MONDAY...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES S THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES AND NRN PLAINS. LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE SWRN U.S. IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS EARLY MONDAY...THEN ADVANCE NEWD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT. SERIES OF WEAKER IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SRN STREAM MAY ALSO AFFECT PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS THIS PERIOD. THE DRYLINE WILL BECOME BETTER DEFINED OVER THE CNTRL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. ...CNTRL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS... PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SERN U.S. WILL MAINTAIN OFFSHORE FLOW AND INFLUX OF CP AIR INTO MUCH OF THE NERN GULF. MOISTURE RETURN WILL THEREFORE REMAIN LIMITED E OF DRYLINE WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S BENEATH STEEP LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER. MAXIMUM MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM W TX THROUGH WRN AND CNTRL KS MONDAY AFTERNOON. PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION. PORTIONS OF THIS AREA WILL BE INFLUENCED BY SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN WAKE OF LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS AND PRESENCE OF CAP MAY SERVE AS A LIMITING FACTORS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MONDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE SHORTWAVE RIDGING SHOULD BE MORE PRONOUNCED ACROSS KS WITH A FLATTER HIGH FIELD AND POTENTIAL FOR WEAK SRN STREAM IMPULSES FARTHER S INTO TX. THEREFORE...INITIATION MAY BE MORE PROBABLE OVER PARTS OF W TX. MOREOVER...A BAND OF STRONGER MID-UPPER FLOW EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SRN STREAM WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STRONGER VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES OVER PARTS OF TX. ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE DRYLINE FROM WRN KS SWD INTO W TX AS IT MIXES EWD DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SUPERCELLS WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. ...NRN PLAINS THROUGH UPPER MS VALLEY... PRESENCE OF STRONG CAP MAY LIMIT OR DELAY INITIATION IN THIS AREA UNTIL EVENING WHEN STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING SHOULD ENHANCE LIFT ALONG AND N OF THE BOUNDARY. MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY COULD BE ELEVATED IN THE POST FRONTAL REGION WHERE CAP SHOULD BE WEAKER WITHIN ZONE OF DEEPER LIFTING. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES APPEAR SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND AS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS SEWD DURING THE EVENING. PORTIONS OF THIS AREA MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO SLIGHT RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS. ...ERN KS AND NEB THROUGH NRN MO AND IA... ELEVATED STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ALONG AND E OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH KS EARLY MONDAY. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY IF INSTABILITY IS GREATER THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER... CLOUDS AND RAIN ACCOMPANYING THIS FEATURE MAY LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT DESTABILIZATION DURING THE DAY...AND ACTIVITY MAY REMAIN ELEVATED AS IT DEVELOPS EAST AWAY FROM THE EML. GIVEN EXPECTED WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR AND POTENTIAL FOR LIMITED INSTABILITY...ONLY LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES APPEAR WARRANTED AT THIS TIME. ..DIAL.. 04/17/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Apr 17 17:01:48 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 17 Apr 2005 12:01:48 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200504171700.j3HH04Aj023270@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 171657 SWODY2 SPC AC 171656 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1156 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2005 VALID 181200Z - 191200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E INK 35 W LBB 40 NNE CAO 10 SE GLD 15 SW HLC 40 S RSL 35 WNW LTS 40 NNE SJT 60 SE MAF 30 E INK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NE MQT 20 SSW MTW 20 NNW MMO 10 E ALN 15 SSE TBN 25 W BVO 30 WNW OKC 30 E SPS 10 SE TPL 10 NE NIR 20 WNW MFE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 S MRF 35 NW INK 25 SW TCC 35 SSE LHX 35 ESE AKO 55 SE CYS 25 SSW LAR 20 N CAG 40 S VEL 25 ENE U24 35 SE EKO 60 NW WMC 60 N 4LW 25 W EAT 65 NW 4OM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NE CTB 45 WNW 3HT 20 NNW COD 30 E WRL 15 NW GCC 45 N REJ 60 N DVL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND MOVE EWD AS HEIGHTS FALL ACROSS THE WRN CONUS THIS PERIOD. SEVERAL LOW-AMPLITUDE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL EJECT NEWD FROM OFF BAJA INTO THE PLAINS... BUT TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF EACH WAVE WILL BE DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE. AT THE SURFACE...DRYLINE/LEE-TROUGH WILL DIURNALLY OSCILLATE ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS. A STRONG COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A PAC NW TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE INTO THE NRN PLAINS...CNTRL ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN REGIONS BY LATE MONDAY. ...CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS... A CONDITIONAL SLGT RISK WILL BE PARTIALLY MAINTAINED FROM PREVIOUS FCST. BOUNDARY LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN ALONG/AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE/LEE-TROUGH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON BENEATH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS WILL LEAD TO A POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ALONG THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS. POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTORS FOR SEVERE TSTMS WILL EXIST...HOWEVER. FIRST...THERE WILL LIKELY BE LARGE SCALE H5 RIDGING IN WAKE OF A DEPARTING IMPULSE THAT WILL MOVE TOWARD THE CORN BELT MONDAY MORNING. H5 FLOW DOES BECOME SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC AGAIN BY EVENING...OWING TO THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER LOW-AMPLITUDE TROUGH /NOW OFF BAJA/...BUT TIMING COINCIDENT WITH PEAK HEATING IS IN QUESTION. MOREOVER...FARTHER S...THERE IS APT TO BE A CI/CS CLOUD CANOPY AS THE SUB-TROPICAL JET BOWS NWD AHEAD OF THE DIGGING TROUGH. THUS...INSOLATION WILL BE IN QUESTION ACROSS SWRN TX. LASTLY...VERTICAL SHEAR WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...LESS THAN 30 KTS...THOUGH MODELS MAY BE UNDERPLAYING MAGNITUDE OF FLOW TIED TO THE LOW-AMPLITUDE TROUGHS. WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...IT APPEARS THAT HEATING WILL BE A LARGE DRIVING FACTOR TO POTENTIALLY INITIATE STORMS ALONG THE DRYLINE FROM WRN KS TO THE LOW-ROLLING PLAINS OF W TX. DESPITE THE WEAK FLOW...INSTABILITY/LAPSE RATES MAY COMPENSATE AND...GIVEN A STORM... LARGE HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THUS...A CONDITIONAL SLGT RISK WILL BE PARTIALLY MAINTAINED. ...ERN PARTS OF CNTRL PLAINS TO UPPER MS VLY... CLUSTERS OF TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING ACROSS ERN NEB/KS EARLY IN THE PERIOD...ALONG THE NOSE OF H85 JET AND AHEAD OF H5 TROUGH. CLOUD DEBRIS SPREADING DOWNSTREAM INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL LIMIT DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE CORN BELT AND UPPER MS VLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. QUESTION REMAINS IF ELEVATED INSTABILITY /I.E. PARCELS BEING FED FROM UPSTREAM INSTABILITY AXIS/ WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT HAIL. THUS...SUB-CATEGORICAL SLGT RISK SEVERE PROBABILITIES WILL CONTINUE. ...NRN PLAINS... A STOUT CAP WILL LIKELY DELAY TSTM INITIATION ALONG THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. MORE LIKELY SCENARIO WILL BE FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP AFTER DARK AND TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT AS THE LLJ STRENGTHENS AND THE FRONT BECOMES STRONGER. ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND INCREASING POST-FRONTAL EFFECTIVE VERTICAL SHEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLD LARGE HAIL...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE DAKS. ..RACY.. 04/17/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Apr 18 06:36:45 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 18 Apr 2005 01:36:45 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200504180647.j3I6l95m012655@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 180645 SWODY2 SPC AC 180644 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0144 AM CDT MON APR 18 2005 VALID 191200Z - 201200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSW HSI 30 SW MCK AKO 25 NW FCL 30 E RWL 15 E CPR 55 NW CDR 25 E PHP 25 WNW HON 20 NNW RWF 40 E MSP 30 W GRB 30 NW MKE 45 SW RFD 30 NNW BRL 15 NE LWD 25 ENE BIE 50 SSW HSI. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE P07 45 S BGS 40 NNW CDS 30 ENE LBL 25 NE DDC 35 W HUT 25 WNW PNC 20 NE SPS 45 SSE BWD 20 S HDO 15 WNW LRD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE OAJ 30 NNW SOP 30 WSW BLF 50 ESE LUK 40 ESE LAF 45 ENE UIN 15 SSE SZL 20 SE FYV 15 NE ELD 40 SW JAN 45 WNW GPT BVE ...CONT... 20 SSW P07 45 S LBB 20 E AMA 30 ESE EHA 45 SSW GLD 30 SW DEN 30 NE U17 SGU 40 S TPH 55 S NFL 65 NW LOL 65 SE BNO 40 SW 27U 50 SE LVM 20 WSW SHR 15 NNW 81V 50 WNW ABR 25 NE IWD 45 NNW ANJ ...CONT... 10 WSW BUF 15 SSE ELM 25 NNW TTN 30 SSE NEL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE CNTRL AND NRN PLAINS THROUGH UPPER MS VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO CUTOFF OVER THE WRN STATES TUESDAY...AND MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD A SLOWER SWD PROGRESSION OF COLD FRONT NOW EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT BASIN NEWD INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS OF MT. THE FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY SWWD THROUGH WRN NEB EARLY TUESDAY...BUT MOVE ONLY SLOWLY SWD THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. THE DRYLINE SHOULD EXTEND FROM A LEE LOW OVER NERN CO...SWD THROUGH THE CNTRL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL MIX EWD INTO WRN KS AND WRN TX TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ...SERN WY THROUGH SRN SD AND NEB... DEVELOPING ELY COMPONENT IN POST FRONTAL ZONE N OF SURFACE LOW SHOULD MAINTAIN AXIS OF MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 FROM PARTS OF SERN WY...EWD THROUGH SRN SD AND NEB. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL PERSIST ABOVE THE LOW LEVEL MOIST AXIS AND CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITHIN ZONE OF INCREASING UPSLOPE FLOW OVER ERN WY AND FARTHER EAST ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT. SSWLY UPPER FLOW SUGGESTS STORMS WILL LIKELY CROSS INTO THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. STRONGEST EFFECTIVE VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED FROM PARTS OF ERN WY INTO WRN NEB WHERE STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW ON ERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL EXIST. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE INITIAL MAIN THREAT. ANY TORNADO THREAT IS CONDITIONAL UPON THE DEGREE OF BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY WHERE STRONG LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL EXIST OVER WRN NEB AND SERN WY. THE THREATS SHOULD TRANSITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES AND STORMS CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE OR MORE MCSS. ...UPPER MS VALLEY THROUGH WRN GREAT LAKES AREA... LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER KS WILL CONTINUE NEWD AND INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY EARLY TUESDAY. A CLUSTER OF MOSTLY ELEVATED STORMS MAY BE ONGOING TUESDAY MORNING AND SOME POTENTIAL FOR INTENSIFICATION WILL EXIST AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE WILL ALSO HELP MAINTAIN A BRANCH OF THE SLY LOW LEVEL JET NEWD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND WRN GREAT LAKES WHERE ENHANCED LIFT IN VICINITY OF A SWD MOVING FRONT SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. DEEP VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MODEST...BUT THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT COULD BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. ...CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS... GIVEN LIMITING FACTORS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION...THREAT IS MORE CONDITIONAL IN THIS AREA. SWLY FLOW IN THE 2-3 KM LAYER WILL MAINTAIN PLUME OF WARM AIR ABOVE THE MOIST AXIS WHERE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WILL EXIST. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY...BUT MAY ALSO RESULT IN A PRONOUNCED CAP OVER MUCH OF THE CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS E OF THE DRYLINE. WEAK UPPER RIDGING WILL ALSO DEVELOP DOWNSTREAM FROM AMPLIFYING WRN U.S. UPPER LOW. FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO DRYLINE MIXING AND CONVERGENCE AS WELL AS ANY ENHANCEMENT ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SRN BRANCH. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG CAP AND WEAK LARGE SCALE FORCING...ONLY ISOLATED STORMS AT BEST ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE DRYLINE. LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY STORMS THAT MANAGE TO DEVELOP. ..DIAL.. 04/18/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Apr 19 06:04:38 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 19 Apr 2005 01:04:38 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200504190614.j3J6EwUu010077@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 190611 SWODY2 SPC AC 190609 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0109 AM CDT TUE APR 19 2005 VALID 201200Z - 211200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSE P07 15 WSW BGS 45 E LBB 15 NE GAG 20 N DDC 40 SSW GLD 45 ENE DEN 30 ENE CYS 15 S CDR 25 N MHN 30 WNW OMA 25 WSW BRL LAF 20 WSW MFD 15 SW ZZV 20 ENE HTS JKL 50 ENE BWG 15 E PAH 45 ESE SGF 30 SE CNU 10 W TUL 25 NNE FTW 35 NW TPL 20 NNW SAT 10 N LRD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NE ORF 45 SE LYH 25 W AVL 15 SW CHA 25 N TCL 20 NNW LUL 20 SSE HUM ...CONT... 45 SW P07 40 NW BGS 30 W GAG 30 SW DDC 10 E LAA 35 SW LIC MTJ 30 W 4HV 60 E ELY 30 NNE EKO 45 ENE BOI 20 E 27U 15 SW BIL 40 WNW REJ 15 ESE PIR 20 E SPW 40 WSW LNR 35 NE MKE OSC. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY AND OH VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... CUTOFF UPPER LOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE WRN STATES WEDNESDAY. A STRONG JET STREAK MOVING SEWD INTO THE BASE OF THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO EJECT NEWD INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER CNTRL CANADA MOVING OVER CREST OF UPPER RIDGE WILL DROP SEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND NERN U.S. WITH ATTENDANT AMPLIFICATION OF UPPER TROUGH. THIS PROCESS WILL HELP DRIVE A COLD FRONT SEWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY...NERN U.S. AND MID ATLANTIC DURING THE DAY...WHILE WRN PORTIONS OF THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL WITHIN THE DEEP LAYER SLY FLOW REGIME OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS DOWNSTREAM FROM CUTOFF LOW. ...CNTRL PLAINS... NELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO ELY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EWD TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL PERSIST NEAR STALLED FRONT OVER NRN KS/SRN NEB...WITH UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 ADVECTING WWD THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SURFACE HEATING SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY FROM KS NWD INTO SRN NEB. PRESENCE OF CAP AND UPPER RIDGE WITH ONLY WEAK FRONTAL CONVERGENCE SUGGEST STORM INITIATION MAY BE LIMITED DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER...FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING AS THE STRONG JET STREAK EJECTS NEWD INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS ACCOMPANIED BY STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET...WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE LIFT ALONG AND N OF THE FRONT FROM PARTS OF NERN CO...NRN KS INTO NEB. PRESENCE OF THE UPPER JET WILL ALSO ENHANCE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE BOUNDARY WHERE ELY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST. SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. A WINDOW MAY ALSO EXIST FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO AS STORMS CROSS THE BOUNDARY...BUT ACTIVITY SHOULD BECOME ELEVATED AS IT MOVES DEEPER INTO THE COOLER AIR. ...MID MS VALLEY THROUGH OH VALLEY... THE RETURN OF PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR UNDERNEATH STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY IN PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR OVER THE MS VALLEY. MORE MARGINAL INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED FARTHER EAST INTO THE OH VALLEY WHERE WEAKER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL EXIST. STORMS MAY BE ONGOING ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY...BUT SHOULD INTENSIFY AS THEY DEVELOP SWD TOWARD INCREASING INSTABILITY. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND IS EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY. FARTHER W OVER THE MID MS VALLEY...PRESENCE OF STRONGER CAP MAY DELAY INITIATION UNTIL MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. SUFFICIENT SHEAR AND INSTABILITY IS FORECAST IN THIS AREA TO SUPPORT A THREAT OF SUPERCELLS AS THE INITIAL MODE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND POSSIBLE. HOWEVER ACTIVITY MAY CONGEAL INTO AN MCS DURING THE EVENING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. ...SRN PLAINS... THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE E OF DRYLINE FROM PARTS OF TX NWD THROUGH OK AND KS. STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS IT MIXES EWD. HOWEVER...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WEAK DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SRN BRANCH OF THE WLYS...LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE RATHER WEAK. THIS AND LIKELY PRESENCE OF CAP SUGGEST ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. ...NERN U.S. THROUGH MID ATLANTIC... INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE LIMITED IN THIS AREA DUE TO WEAKER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DRYER BOUNDARY LAYERS. HOWEVER...MODERATELY STRONG KINEMATIC PROFILES ASSOCIATED WITH THE AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH AND DRY BOUNDARY LAYERS WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES MAY ENHANCE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AS STORMS ORGANIZE INTO LINES ALONG SWD MOVING COLD FRONT. THIS AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS. ..DIAL.. 04/19/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Apr 19 17:22:49 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 19 Apr 2005 12:22:49 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200504191733.j3JHX8iK031166@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 191731 SWODY2 SPC AC 191730 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1230 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2005 VALID 201200Z - 211200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW SYR MPV PSM BDL ABE HGR 25 NW HTS ALN JEF 45 SSW OJC ICT RSL HLC GLD AKO 50 W SNY BFF VTN YKN FOD ALO DBQ JVL MKG 55 NNE MTC. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CDS CSM OKC FTW 30 NNW HDO DRT 25 NW SJT CDS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE DOV CHO CSV 45 SSW BNA MSL 15 NE MEI 20 SE GPT ...CONT... 20 SSW P07 MAF DDC GCK 10 E LAA COS 10 ESE GUC BCE 50 SSE ELY OGD 20 N OWY BKE 3DU RAP 15 ESE PIR HON FRM OSH APN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS WED/WED NIGHT FROM PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST INTO THE MID MS/LWR OH VALLEYS.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS.... BLOCK PERSISTS IN LARGE-SCALE PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA...AND MODELS SUGGEST THIS WILL BECOME MORE PROMINENT LATER TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE IS ALREADY EVIDENT IN LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. CENTER OF THIS FEATURE MAY SHIFT A BIT FURTHER EAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES...AND AN AMPLIFYING DOWNSTREAM TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CANADIAN PROVINCES/GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN STATES. TO THE SOUTH OF UPPER RIDGE...CLOSED LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...WITH MOVEMENT ONLY IN RESPONSE TO SHORT WAVES ROTATING ITS CIRCULATION CENTER. ONE SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE IS PROGGED TO MIGRATE AROUND THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF LOW...ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL ROCKIES...EARLY IN THE PERIOD. ANOTHER IS FORECAST TO PROGRESSES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN/EASTERN PERIPHERY OF SYSTEM...ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS ...DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE IN A BROADENING SECTOR OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN U.S...ASSOCIATED WITH GULF MOISTURE RETURN AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ON WESTERN PERIPHERY OF RETREATING SURFACE RIDGE. THIS RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO INHIBIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OVER MUCH OF THE GULF STATES AND SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH EVOLVING UPPER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE NORTHEAST. ...NORTHEAST INTO LOWER OH/MID MS VALLEY... ASSOCIATED WITH AMPLIFYING NORTHEASTERN TROUGH...A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO SURGE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES/OHIO VALLEY AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. BAND OR BANDS OF CONVERGENCE DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THIS FRONT SHOULD PROVIDE FOCUS FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT... PARTICULARLY DURING THE MID AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS. WHILE STRONGER CAPE ASSOCIATED WITH STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE CONFINED TO SOUTHEAST IOWA/NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS/INDIANA AND PARTS OF WESTERN OHIO...STRONGER FLOW ON SOUTHERN FRINGE OF UPPER TROUGH WILL COMPENSATE FOR WEAKER INSTABILITY FARTHER EAST. LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE PRIMARY THREATS IN MOST VIGOROUS STORMS...WHICH SHOULD QUICKLY DEVELOP SOUTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF FRONT THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHEAST. UPSTREAM... IN DEFORMATION ZONE BETWEEN GREAT BASIN AND NORTHEASTERN UPPER SYSTEMS...SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO BE MUCH SLOWER...AND WILL BE SLOWER TO DIMINISH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ...CENTRAL PLAINS... UNCERTAINTY EXISTS CONCERNING EXTENT OF CONVECTION ONGOING EARLY IN THE PERIOD ASSOCIATED WITH INITIAL IMPULSE ROTATING AROUND GREAT BASIN LOW. HOWEVER...STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL PERSIST NEAR CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED FRONT VICINITY OF THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER...AND BOUNDARY SHOULD BECOME FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS AS FORCING INCREASES WITH APPROACH OF NEXT IMPULSE LATE WEDNESDAY/ WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALONG/JUST SOUTH OF FRONT...MODELS SUGGEST AIR MASS WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE...WITH CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG. THIS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS...AND SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS...WHICH WILL ENHANCE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL. UPSCALE EVOLUTION INTO LARGE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM ALSO APPEARS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH ONLY SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA/NORTHERN KANSAS. ...SOUTHERN PLAINS... INHIBITION SHOULD BECOME SUFFICIENTLY WEAK FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG DRY LINE...AT LEAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THIS APPEARS MOST LIKELY ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST TEXAS...ENHANCED BY DIFLUENT/ DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW REGIME BETWEEN JET STREAK PROPAGATING AROUND GREAT BASIN CLOSED LOW...AND SOUTHERN STREAM JET ALONG THE U.S./ MEXICAN BORDER. SHEAR LIKELY WILL NOT BE STRONG...BUT IT STILL SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WITH CAPE AS HIGH AS 2000 J/KG BY PEAK HEATING. ..KERR.. 04/19/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Apr 20 06:30:42 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 20 Apr 2005 01:30:42 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200504200640.j3K6ex3J003187@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 200638 SWODY2 SPC AC 200637 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0137 AM CDT WED APR 20 2005 VALID 211200Z - 221200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE P07 40 SW ABI 20 ESE LTS P28 25 NNW RSL 40 W EAR 35 SSW ANW 25 N ANW 20 S 9V9 25 W MHE 15 E MHE 35 W SPW 30 ESE FOD 20 WSW MLI 30 NNE CMI IND 40 W LUK 20 SW LEX 55 NNW CSV 10 SE BNA 30 N MSL 20 S UOX 35 SSW GLH 50 ESE SHV 55 ENE CLL 30 E SAT 50 NW LRD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE SAV 50 NW AYS 25 ESE DHN 20 S CEW ...CONT... 25 SSE P07 50 ENE BGS 30 WSW LTS 20 NE GAG 30 NNW DDC 20 E GLD 30 ESE AKO 40 ENE FCL 40 N LAR 55 N DGW 25 SW REJ 30 WSW MBG ATY 25 N MCW 30 W RFD 20 SSW FWA 15 N PKB 25 NW DCA 10 SSE ACY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE PUW 50 SSW MSO 20 S 27U SUN 35 NNW OWY 80 E 4LW 65 NNW 4LW 50 NNW RDM 20 SSW YKM 45 SE EPH 30 NE PUW. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS THROUGH THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MS VALLEY AND WRN TN VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... STRONG JET STREAK MOVING INTO BASE OF WRN U.S. UPPER LOW SHOULD EJECT NEWD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS EARLY THURSDAY. THIS FEATURE SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH NEB AND KS DURING THE DAY...THEN TURN SEWD TOWARD THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MS VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT AS IT MOVES OVER UPPER RIDGE CREST. ACCOMPANYING SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST OVER NEB EARLY THURSDAY WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT SWD THROUGH WRN KS AND THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL ADVANCE SE INTO THE MS VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL EXTEND SEWD FROM THE LOW THROUGH PARTS OF THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO A COLD FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC. THE DRYLINE WILL PERSIST FROM OK SWD INTO TX...BUT OK PORTION WILL BE OVERTAKEN BY THE SEWD MOVING COLD FRONT. ...ERN NEB...IA...KS...OK...MO AND KS... ELEVATED STORMS MAY BE ONGOING WITHIN ZONE OF ASCENT ALONG AND N OF FRONT OVER PARTS OF NEB AND MO AS WELL AS SWD ALONG PORTION OF FRONT IN NWRN KS. THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHERE STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL EXIST ABOVE LOW 60S DEWPOINTS. OTHER STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP FROM SERN NEB/NERN KS NEAR TRIPLE POINT WHERE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE ENHANCED IN DIVERGENT JET EXIT REGION. ACTIVITY SHOULD BUILD SWD ALONG COLD FRONT THROUGH KS AND OK DURING THE AFTERNOON. OTHER STORMS MAY INTENSIFY FARTHER SE WITHIN ZONE OF LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION OVER PARTS OF THE MS VALLEY. SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE INITIAL DOMINANT THREAT. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONSOLIDATE INTO AN MCS AS IT MOVES EWD INTO THE MS VALLEY...WITH THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING. THE LOW LEVEL JET IS NOT FORECAST TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG IN THE WARM SECTOR AND WILL LIMIT LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND HELICITY PARAMETERS. AT THIS TIME THE BEST CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO APPEARS TO BE OVER SERN NEB WHERE STRONGER LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL EXIST JUST E OF SURFACE LOW AND IN VICINITY OF WARM FRONT. ...WRN PORTIONS OF THE OH VALLEY AND TN VALLEY... COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SWD THROUGH KY DURING THE DAY. MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE FROM 1000 TO 2000 J/KG IS EXPECTED S OF THIS FRONT. SOME THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL WILL EXIST AS STORMS DEVELOP SWD ALONG THIS BOUNDARY DURING THE DAY. STORMS DEVELOPING FARTHER W OVER THE MID MS VALLEY MAY CONSOLIDATE INTO AN MCS OR TWO AND CONTINUE INTO WRN PARTS OF THE OH AND TN VALLEYS BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE LIMITED AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLER WITH ERN EXTENT INTO THE OH VALLEY. THESE MAY SERVE AS OVERALL LIMITING FACTORS FOR SEVERE WEATHER. HOWEVER...A SOMEWHAT REDUCED THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS STORMS SPREAD INTO THIS REGION OVERNIGHT. ...TX... FORCING FOR INITIATION ALONG THE DRYLINE WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...ESPECIALLY GIVEN FORECAST WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW WHICH WILL LIMIT DRYLINE CONVERGENCE. THIS AND EXPECTED CAP ASSOCIATED WITH THE EML LOWERS CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORM INITIATION. BEST CHANCES FOR DEVELOPMENT MAY BE OVER N TX AS THE FRONT MERGES WITH NRN PORTION OF THE DRYLINE. FARTHER S...WEAK DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SRN STREAM IF FAVORABLY TIMED...COULD ENHANCE CHANCES FOR INITIATION. IF STORMS MANAGE TO DEVELOP...VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES APPEAR AT LEAST MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THE MAIN THREATS. ...MID ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS... INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURE DEWPOINT SPREADS MAY SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND WITH STORMS DEVELOPING SWD ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE DAY FROM PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC INTO THE CAROLINAS. ..DIAL.. 04/20/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Apr 20 17:23:14 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 20 Apr 2005 12:23:14 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200504201733.j3KHXTF3010091@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 201731 SWODY2 SPC AC 201730 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1230 PM CDT WED APR 20 2005 VALID 211200Z - 221200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NW DRT 40 N SJT ADM 45 E ICT CNK 10 NW GRI 60 NNE BUB YKN 35 SSW OTG 35 W SPW ALO MMO DNV HUF 10 N EVV HOP TUP GWO 25 N ESF LFK SAT 50 NW LRD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE P07 50 ENE BGS SPS OKC ICT MCK BFF 50 SW RAP 60 ESE REJ MBG RST SBN CMH ZZV MRB DOV 30 S ACY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM EAT GEG 27U SUN OWY 4LW EUG OLM SEA EAT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THU/THU NIGHT FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.... MODELS INDICATE THAT BLOCKING PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD AND BEYOND. HOWEVER...UPPER HIGH CENTER AND CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND INTERMOUNTAIN U.S. WILL BREAK DOWN THURSDAY...AS A NEW HIGH CENTER BEGINS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST...AND A NEW LOW FORMS OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN SUGGESTING BROAD GREAT BASIN CIRCULATION WILL BREAK DOWN INTO A COUPLE OF SMALLER SCALE CIRCULATIONS. ONE OF THESE ALREADY APPEARS TO HAVE FORMED OVER SOUTHEAST IDAHO...AND IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP WEST NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE COLUMBIA VALLEY BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE OTHER CIRCULATION AND ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP EAST OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY EARLY THURSDAY. SYSTEM IS THEN FORECAST TO TURN SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE MID/LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY LATER THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...AS A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGS FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. LATTER FEATURE WILL BE PROGRESSING INTO BROADER SCALE NORTHERN BRANCH TROUGH...WHICH WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEASTERN STATES. ...PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... INFLUX OF GULF MOISTURE AND STEEPENING LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE ALREADY CONTRIBUTED TO FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS A BROAD AREA OF THE CENTRAL U.S...FROM THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. GIVEN INCREASING LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND STRENGTHENING SHEAR PROFILES ASSOCIATED WITH EVOLVING UPPER FLOW PATTERN...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THURSDAY/ THURSDAY NIGHT. MOST EXTENSIVE ACTIVITY APPEARS LIKELY IN ASSOCIATION WITH STRONGER MID-LEVEL FORCING...FROM THE MIDDLE INTO LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY. STORMS ALSO APPEAR LIKELY TO BECOME NUMEROUS IN ZONE OF ENHANCED WARM ADVECTION...FROM THE OZARKS SOUTHWARD THROUGH EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND THE ARKLATEX INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL TEXAS. SOUTHWESTERN LIMIT TO CONVECTIVE THREAT IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN... PRIMARILY DUE TO FORECAST AMPLIFICATION OF HIGH LEVEL RIDGE IN SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE WESTERLIES...FROM THE SOUTHERN U.S./MEXICAN PLATEAU INTO TEXAS. CLUSTER OF CONVECTION MAY BE ONGOING AT 12Z THURSDAY ACROSS THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY...IN ASSOCIATION WITH FORCING EAST OF LOW/MID- LEVEL CYCLONE. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD TEND TO DEVELOP EAST SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG DEVELOPING WARM FRONTAL ZONE TOWARD THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...BUT COULD STABILIZE BOUNDARY LAYER THROUGH BROAD PORTION OF THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. THIS PROVIDES PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO MORE INTENSE CONVECTIVE THREAT...INCLUDING RISK OF TORNADIC SUPERCELLS...DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST LARGE HAIL WILL ENCOMPASS A BROAD AREA FROM THE CENTRAL/ SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. ...SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS... BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN RATHER DRY TO THE LEE OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...SOUTH OF COLD FRONT ADVANCING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES. HOWEVER...STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT WILL DEVELOP AND COULD BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED HAIL/WIND THREAT BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL COULD BECOME ENHANCED BY IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN DEVELOPING WEAK NORTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER FLOW REGIME. ..KERR.. 04/20/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Apr 21 06:14:06 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 21 Apr 2005 01:14:06 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200504210624.j3L6OJJS021989@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 210617 SWODY2 SPC AC 210616 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0116 AM CDT THU APR 21 2005 VALID 221200Z - 231200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ESE P07 30 NW JCT 20 SE SEP 30 S PRX 20 WSW HOT 55 NNE LIT 25 NE ARG 25 WNW CGI BLV 25 SSW SPI 25 SSE PIA 30 NE BMI 55 NW LAF 25 NW FWA 10 NNE FDY 15 SW CAK 25 S PIT 40 E EKN 20 ENE LYH 30 SSE DAN 40 NW FLO 20 SE AGS 45 ENE ABY 10 SE PFN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NW 4OM 25 SE 4OM 40 SSW GEG 45 SSW LWS 30 SSE BKE 35 SSW BNO 25 SSW LMT 20 NNW ACV. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 S MRF 40 WSW MWL 30 E DUA 55 S HRO 40 E HRO 30 NW UNO 20 WNW TBN 35 ESE SZL 40 N SZL 15 S LWD 25 ESE DSM 30 WNW CID DBQ 20 NE RFD 10 WSW AZO 15 SE ARB 45 NNW CLE 10 NE ERI 40 WNW ELM BGM 30 NE MSV 30 SW GON. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE OH AND TN VALLEYS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND TX AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC AND SERN U.S.... ...SYNOPSIS... STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW EJECTING NEWD THROUGH THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CREST OF CNTRL U.S. UPPER RIDGE TODAY THEN ESEWD INTO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS FRIDAY. HERE IT WILL PHASE WITH AMPLIFYING NRN STREAM TROUGH BEFORE CONTINUING INTO THE NERN U.S. FRIDAY NIGHT. ACCOMPANYING SURFACE CYCLONE WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES FROM THE OH VALLEY INTO THE NERN STATES. BY EARLY FRIDAY A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE MID MS VALLEY SWWD THROUGH NRN AND SWRN TX. THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SEWD THROUGH THE OH AND TN VALLEYS DURING THE DAY...REACHING THE MID ATLANTIC AND WRN CAROLINAS BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. ...OH AND TN VALLEYS... PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR WITH DEWPOINTS FROM THE UPPER 50S OVER THE OH VALLEY TO LOWER 60S OVER THE TN VALLEY SHOULD EXIST IN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR. STORMS MAY BE ONGOING EARLY FRIDAY WITHIN ZONE OF ASCENT AND WARM ADVECTION OVER PORTIONS OF THE OH VALLEY. OTHER STORMS MAY BE IN PROGRESS ALONG REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES OVER THE TN VALLEY. A LIMITED SEVERE THREAT MAY EXIST WITH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY...BUT THE MAIN THREAT SHOULD WAIT UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IN WAKE OF MORNING STORMS...SURFACE HEATING AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES IN MID LEVEL DRY SLOT SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY FROM THE OH VALLEY SWD INTO THE TN VALLEY. STRONG DEEP LAYER ASCENT WITHIN FRONTAL ZONE ENHANCED BY FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE COMPACT VORT MAX SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO A REDEVELOPMENT OF STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. STRENGTHENING WIND AND VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ASSOCIATED WITH THE AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH WILL SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION...INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS AND LINES WITH BOWING SEGMENTS. DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. GIVEN EXPECTED NATURE OF VERTICAL WIND PROFILES...STEEPENING LAPSE RATES...AND POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE LINES...SIGNIFICANT AND/OR WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE UPGRADE TO MODERATE RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS. ...TX THROUGH LOWER MS VALLEY... THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE IN PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR FROM TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY FRIDAY AFTERNOON SUPPORTED BY STEEP LAPSE RATES...SURFACE HEATING AND BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. LOW LEVEL JET AND STRONGEST DEEP LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT EXPECTED TO REMAIN NE OF THIS REGION. HOWEVER...FRONTAL CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE SCATTERED STORMS...ESPECIALLY SINCE THE 2-3 KM TRAJECTORIES WILL NOT FAVOR A STRONG CAP. LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL EFFECTIVE VERTICAL SHEAR FROM 40 TO 50 KT WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND LINE SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. ..DIAL.. 04/21/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Apr 21 17:24:09 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 21 Apr 2005 12:24:09 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200504211734.j3LHYKL3001054@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 211732 SWODY2 SPC AC 211731 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1231 PM CDT THU APR 21 2005 VALID 221200Z - 231200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WSW OWB BMG DAY HTS 5I3 HSS AND MCN TOI 65 NW CEW LUL MLU ELD MEM 45 WSW OWB. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW DRT 40 E BGS ABI MWL TXK LIT JBR MVN DEC 25 SSE PIA 30 NE BMI 25 NW FWA 10 NNE FDY 15 SW CAK 25 S PIT EKN 10 WNW CHO 20 NNE RIC 10 ENE WAL ...CONT... 25 NNE JAX 35 SE TLH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NE ROC UCA PWM ...CONT... 50 WNW DRT 25 E BGS 30 WNW TXK ARG BLV UIN IRK DSM RST VOK 10 S OSH OSC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE BLI 10 W EAT 10 NNW PDT BKE 60 W BOI 65 ESE 4LW 10 NNE MHS 4BK. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FRI/FRI NIGHT ACROSS THE CNTRL/ERN GULF STATES INTO THE TENNESSEE AND LWR OH VALLEY.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MODERATE RISK AREA...ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.... LATEST RUNS OF NAM/GFS APPEAR VERY SIMILAR WITH REGARD TO EVOLUTION OF LARGE-SCALE PATTERN THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. BLOCK WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC/WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. HOWEVER...MERGING NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGHS DOWNSTREAM ARE PROGGED TO CONTRIBUTE TO THE EVOLUTION OF A BROAD DEEP CLOSED LOW EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH SERIES OF COLD FRONTAL INTRUSIONS INTO THE CENTRAL/EASTERN STATES. ULTIMATELY THIS WILL STABILIZE MUCH OF THE NATION EAST OF THE ROCKIES. BUT...BEFORE IT DOES...STRONG LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION APPEARS LIKELY TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. ENVIRONMENT OVER A BROAD AREA FROM THE GULF STATES INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS HAS MOISTENED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. AT THE SAME TIME...INCREASINGLY STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES DEVELOPING/SPREADING EAST OF THE PLAINS ARE CONTRIBUTING TO INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE STORMS. THIS WILL BE ENHANCED BY STRENGTHENING SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH EVOLVING UPPER PATTERN...AND A SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK APPEARS POSSIBLE FRIDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST STATES. ...CNTRL/ERN GULF STATES INTO TN/LWR OH VLYS... MODELS SUGGEST INITIAL COLD SURGE...SOUTH AND WEST OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS SURFACE LOW...WILL EXTEND ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSOURI/CENTRAL ARKANSAS INTO NORTHERN TEXAS BY 12Z FRIDAY. MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT APPEARS LIKELY TO OVERSPREAD WARM SECTOR EARLY IN THE DAY...WITH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE GRADIENT/DRY LINE TYPE BOUNDARY SETTING UP ALONG PRE-FRONTAL WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST INDIANA THROUGH EASTERN ARKANSAS BY MID DAY. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME FOCUS FOR INITIATION OF INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS CAPE INCREASES IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG. ACTIVITY APPEARS POSSIBLE BY EARLY AFTERNOON...AS LEADING EDGE OF FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHERN BRANCH IMPULSE INTERACTS WITH SURFACE BOUNDARY. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES IN EXIT REGION OF 50 TO 70 KT CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL JET STREAK WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...BUT AT THE PRESENT TIME IT APPEARS THIS THREAT COULD BE MITIGATED SOMEWHAT BY RELATIVELY SMALL LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS. EVENTUALLY...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO A SUBSTANTIAL SQUALL LINE...OR PERHAPS A LARGE "BOWING" MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM...AS IT SPREADS SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD SOUTH ATLANTIC AND EASTERN GULF COASTAL AREAS LATE FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS. ...TEXAS... MODELS SUGGEST HIGH-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL EVENTUALLY FLATTEN IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING SYSTEM TO THE NORTHEAST. THOUGH LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW FIELDS ON ANTICYCLONIC SIDE OF HIGH LEVEL JET WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...LOW/MID-LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS. ACTIVITY SHOULD DEVELOP SOUTHWARD WITH TIME AHEAD OF COLD FRONT... FRONT CENTRAL INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. ...PACIFIC NORTHWEST... STRONG HEATING ALONG/IN THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN CASCADES IS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES BENEATH COLD POCKET ASSOCIATED WEAKENING/WESTWARD PROPAGATING MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION. ISOLATED STRONG STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE BY LATE AFTERNOON...A FEW OF WHICH COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME HAIL APPROACHING OR BRIEFLY EXCEEDING SEVERE LIMITS. ..KERR.. 04/21/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 22 05:45:58 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 22 Apr 2005 00:45:58 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200504220556.j3M5u8Lr010889@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 220554 SWODY2 SPC AC 220553 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1253 AM CDT FRI APR 22 2005 VALID 231200Z - 241200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE CEW MAI 55 ESE MCN CAE LYH IPT AVP 35 ENE ABE ACY ...CONT... MLB SRQ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW ART GFL ORH BID ...CONT... PNS DHN SPA HKY BLF HTS LUK 30 SE FWA 40 SE DTW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 N FCA CTB BIL SHR DGW 50 NW AKO LIC LHX TAD ALS ASE CAG LND JAC SUN BNO 4LW 55 NE SVE WMC EKO U24 ELP. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS MID-ATLANTIC REGION TO NRN/CENTRAL FL... ...SYNOPSIS... SYNOPTIC UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY LARGE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE OVER GREAT LAKES STATES...ANCHORING MEAN ERN CONUS TROUGH. CYCLONE IS FCST TO EVOLVE FROM MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW NOW OVER NEB...AND POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW DIGGING SEWD ACROSS NWRN ONT...SERN MANITOBA AND NERN ND. LATTER TROUGH SHOULD PIVOT SEWD THEN EWD AROUND PRIMARY VORTEX CENTER OVER NEXT TWO DAYS. THOUGH DIFFERING IN DETAILS OF LARGER SCALE VORTEX SHAPE AND CENTER POINT...21Z SREF MEMBERS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ONE ANOTHER AND WITH 00Z OPERATIONAL ETA/NGM/SPECTRAL RUNS REGARDING THIS TROUGH BEING LOCATED INVOF SRN APPALACHIANS BY 18Z. MEANWHILE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM W-CENTRAL MEX NWD ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN ROCKIES TO CANADIAN HIGH PLAINS. UPSTREAM...ANOTHER LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY W OF CA BETWEEN 130W-140W -- IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY EWD THROUGH DAY-2. BROAD PACIFIC CYCLONE IS FCST TO FORCE SEAWARD RETROGRESSION OF SMALLER UPPER LOW NOW ANALYZED OVER ORE. SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW ORBITING BACKSIDE OF THAT CIRCULATION NEAR 31N138W -- SHOULD PIVOT AROUND SRN SEMICIRCLE OF PACIFIC VORTEX...MOVING NEWD ACROSS COASTAL CENTRAL/SRN CA NEAR MIDDLE OF PERIOD. ...MID ATLANTIC AREA SWD... EARLY IN PERIOD...SCATTERED-NUMEROUS TSTMS EXPECTED FROM CENTRAL/ERN PA AND WRN NY SWD AT LEAST THROUGH CAROLINAS...PERHAPS LINKED WITH CONVECTION OVER NERN GULF AND COASTAL FL PANHANDLE REGION. EXPECT BUOYANCY TO DIMINISH WITH NWD EXTENT FROM TIDEWATER AND VA PIEDMONT...WHILE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND FRONTAL/PREFRONTAL CONVERGENCE SHOULD WEAKEN WITH SWD EXTENT OVER SERN STATES. GREATEST SEVERE PROBABILITIES WITHIN BROADER CATEGORICAL SLGT ARE DRAWN FROM INLAND MID ATLANTIC SWD OVER PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN OF CAROLINAS. PRIND THIS AREA IS WHERE STRONG DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELDS...ACCOMPANYING SPEED SHEARS AND LATE MORNING TO MID-AFTERNOON MUCAPE MAY BE BEST JUXTAPOSED. EXPECT STRONG LOW-MIDLEVEL SHEAR OVER SERN SEMICIRCLE OF GREAT LAKES CYCLONE TO OVERSPREAD DIURNALLY HEATED AND DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER...WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SUPPORT TSTMS. PRIND CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP INVOF PREFRONTAL LEE TROUGH AND CONFLUENCE AXIS EARLY IN PERIOD...WITH RESULTING TSTMS MOVING EWD ACROSS REGION. AS MID/UPPER TROUGH APCHS...FLOW ALOFT SHOULD BACK WITH TIME...CONTRIBUTING TO NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP-LAYER PROFILES. THIS COMBINED WITH LIKELIHOOD OF LINEAR FORCING INDICATES DAMAGING WIND IS MAIN THREAT. SUPERCELLS AHEAD OF OR EMBEDDED WITHIN MAIN CONVECTIVE PLUME ALSO ARE POSSIBLE. ...WRN ORE... WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS MAY DEVELOP OVER CASCADE REGION WITH AFTERNOON HEATING OF HIGHER TERRAIN. A FEW MAY PRODUCE HAIL/GUSTS NEAR SEVERE LEVELS. SFC OBS INDICATE DEW POINTS RELATIVELY MAXIMIZED IN 40S TO LOW 50S OVER THIS AREA...PROGGED TO REMAIN THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. COLD MIDLEVEL AIR ASSOCIATED WITH PERTURBATION ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...CONTRIBUTING TO ENOUGH MLCAPE TO SUPPORT THUNDER. ETA/SPECTRAL PLANAR PROGS AND FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SELY MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW AROUND RETROGRADING LOW AND ELY TO NELY/UPSLOPE FLOW IN BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS CONTRIBUTES TO POSITIVE LOW LEVEL SRH FOR SLOW MOVING STORMS...A RESULT OF VEERING WITH HEIGHT AND SUFFICIENTLY WWD-SKEWED 0-3 KM HODOGRAPH. MIDLEVEL FLOW IS PROGGED TO BE ONLY 10-20 KT OVER REGION. STILL...ENOUGH LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND BUOYANCY ARE PROGGED TO CONSIDER MARGINAL AND SUBCATEGORICAL SEVERE PROBABILITIES. ..EDWARDS.. 04/22/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 22 17:14:48 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 22 Apr 2005 12:14:48 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200504221724.j3MHOu9u018321@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 221722 SWODY2 SPC AC 221721 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1221 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2005 VALID 231200Z - 241200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE CEW MAI 55 ESE MCN CAE DAN 10 NE AOO 35 ENE BFD BGM 15 S PHL 15 SSW ACY ...CONT... VRB AGR 40 NW AGR 15 SSE PIE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N PBG 10 S EFK LCI 15 E HYA ...CONT... PNS MCN AHN 10 W AVL UNI 20 NE CLE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CZZ RAL 40 N SBA MER 30 E ACV 25 E AST CLM 20 SE BLI 40 SSE 4OM HLN 10 SSE JAC 10 N RKS 10 N ASE 4SL ONM GDP 60 SSW P07. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SATURDAY ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES...AND PARTS OF NRN/CENTAL FLORIDA.... BLOCK PERSISTS IN UPPER FLOW REGIME OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC/WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE WILL DIG INTO SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH...TO THE SOUTH/WEST OF UPPER HIGH CENTER OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA...AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY. AS THIS OCCURS...CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OFF THE PACIFIC COAST IS PROGGED TO BROADEN...WITH ONE SHORT WAVE PIVOTING WESTWARD AWAY FROM THE PACIFIC COAST...AND ANOTHER MIGRATING INLAND ACROSS CALIFORNIA INTO THE GREAT BASIN SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. DOWNSTREAM...MERGER OF SPLIT BELTS OF STRONGER FLOW WILL REMAIN TO THE IMMEDIATE LEE OF THE ROCKIES...WHILE LARGE DEEP CLOSED LOW WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WITHIN THIS CIRCULATION...ONE SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO ROTATE THROUGH ITS EASTERN/NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COAST STATES...WHILE ANOTHER DIGS AROUND ITS WESTERN/SOUTHERN PERIPHERY...ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS. UPPER PATTERN WILL SUPPORT SLOWLY DEEPENING CYCLONE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION...WHILE SURFACE RIDGING DEVELOPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WHILE AIR MASS WILL BE STABLE...OR IN THE PROCESS OF STABILIZING...THROUGH MUCH OF THE NATION EAST OF THE ROCKIES... POTENTIAL FOR VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAY EXTEND INTO SATURDAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE ATLANTIC COAST STATES...BEFORE COLD FRONT ADVANCES OFFSHORE. ...MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES... PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE BAND IS EXPECTED TO BE OVERSPREADING MID/SOUTH ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA AT 12Z SATURDAY. ACTIVITY LIKELY WILL BE WEAK...OR AT LEAST IN PROCESS OF WEAKENING...AS IT PROGRESSES OFF COASTAL AREAS EARLY IN THE DAY... AND LINGERING CLOUD COVER/STABILIZING INFLUENCE OF RAIN COOLED AIR PROVIDES CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO SEVERE THREAT LATER IN THE DAY. HOWEVER...MODELS DO SUGGEST MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL NOSE NORTHWARD IN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS EARLY IN THE DAY...AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AT LEAST NARROW WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR HEATING AHEAD OF COLD FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. STRONGEST DESTABILIZATION APPEARS LIKELY IN A NARROW AXIS FROM CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH CENTRAL/NORTHERN VIRGINIA...PERHAPS INTO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...WHERE MIXED LAYER CAPE COULD EXCEED 1000 J/KG AS STRONGER MID-LEVEL COOLING OVERSPREADS REGION. AT LEAST SCATTERED INTENSE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED...AND SHEAR PROFILES BENEATH 50 TO 70 KT SOUTHERLY MID-LEVEL JET WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS...PRIMARILY WITH LARGE HAIL. FORCING ALONG FRONT COULD SUPPORT NARROW SQUALL LINE...WITH A BROADER SCALE DAMAGING WIND THREAT POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN VIRGINIA/NORTH CAROLINA. ...FLORIDA... WIND GUSTS/HAIL COULD ACCOMPANY WEAKENING PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE BAND SPREADING INTO PARTS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA AT 12Z SATURDAY. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAY BECOME FOCUSED NEAR INTERSECTION OF PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND SEA BREEZE ALONG THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST FAIRLY EARLY IN THE DAY. THIS WOULD SEEM LIKELY TO LIMIT RISK FOR ADDITIONAL STRONG/SEVERE STORMS TO THE MELBOURNE AREA...BEFORE THIS FORCING DEVELOPS OFFSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON. ...INTERMOUNTAIN WEST... LOWER-LEVELS WILL REMAIN DRY...BUT INFLUX OF MID/HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT SURFACE HEATING SOMEWHAT...BUT DESTABILIZATION SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER A BROAD AREA WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. ..KERR.. 04/22/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Apr 23 05:35:38 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 23 Apr 2005 00:35:38 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200504230545.j3N5jhqw032659@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 230542 SWODY2 SPC AC 230541 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1241 AM CDT SAT APR 23 2005 VALID 241200Z - 251200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... DAY-2 SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN DOMINATED BY MAJOR NERN CONUS CYCLONE...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO FILL AND LIFT SLOWLY NWD ACROSS ERN GREAT LAKES REGION. UPPER RIDGE OVER ROCKIES WILL BE BREACHED EARLY IN PERIOD BY SRN STREAM JET...ASSOCIATED WITH PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CROSSING SRN PACIFIC COAST. ONE OF THESE TROUGHS -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY SW OF CA IN BETWEEN 125W-130W -- IS FCST TO MOVE ONSHORE SRN CA DAY-1 THEN ACROSS ERN GREAT BASIN/CENTRAL ROCKIES REGION THIS PERIOD. OPERATIONAL AND SREF GUIDANCE IS IN REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE MOVING FROM CO TO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AFTER 25/00Z...AND ASSOCIATED HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS SRN ROCKIES/SRN PLAINS THROUGH MOST OF PERIOD. AT SFC...LEE-SIDE CYCLOGENESIS EXPECTED OVER SERN CO/NERN NM AREA...ATTACHED SFC TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS ERN NM AND FAR W TX. POSTFRONTAL SFC HIGH WILL MOVE RAPIDLY SEWD FROM CENTRAL PLAINS ACROSS NRN GULF. ...SRN ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS... WIDELY SCATTERED AND HIGH-BASED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING AFTERNOON OVER SRN ROCKIES...WITH CONVECTION FARTHER E ON HIGH PLAINS AND INVOF LEE TROUGH BEING MORE ISOLATED BECAUSE OF CAPPING. EXPECT SFC THETAE TO SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH DAYLIGHT HOURS -- PRIMARILY AS RESIDUAL MOISTURE ADVECTS NWWD FROM CONTINENTAL SFC HIGH THAT SHOULD SETTLE OVER NRN GULF. THOUGH MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING/EWD PROGRESSION OF LEE TROUGH DURING DAY...EXPECT AND DOWNSLOPE/SWLY FLOW INCREASES TO ITS W DURING AFTERNOON. THESE PROCESSES WILL RESULT IN WEAK DRYLINE WITH SFC DEW POINTS UPPER 30S TO LOW 50S TO ITS E BY 25/00Z. ALTHOUGH DEEPLY MIXED SUBCLOUD LAYERS WILL MAXIMIZE POTENTIAL FOR ANY STRONG DOWNDRAFTS OR HAIL THAT IS GENERATED TO REACH SFC...BUOYANCY SHOULD BE MARGINAL BECAUSE OF WEAK MOISTURE. THEREFORE SEVERE PROBABILITIES ARE TOO SMALL TO WARRANT CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK ATTM. SOMEWHAT FARTHER E AND AFTER DARK...A FEW SMALL BANDS OR CLUSTERS OF NOCTURNAL CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP OVER SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS. STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT REGIME SHOULD RAISE MARGINALLY MOIST PARCELS TO HIGHLY ELEVATED LFCS IN A FEW AREAS FROM WRN KS TO WRN OK AND NW TX. WEAK CAPE WILL MITIGATE SEVERE POTENTIAL. ..EDWARDS.. 04/23/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Apr 23 06:55:58 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 23 Apr 2005 01:55:58 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200504230706.j3N765aB026979@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 230700 SWODY2 SPC AC 230659 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0159 AM CDT SAT APR 23 2005 VALID 241200Z - 251200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NNE FCA 10 ESE LWT DGW BFF IML HLC SLN 50 SSW EMP 50 SW TUL ADM MWL BWD JCT LRD ...CONT... ELP SVC PRC IGM LAS RNO SVE MFR PDX 55 ENE BLI. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... CORRECTED FOR CATEGORICAL POINTS ...SYNOPSIS... DAY-2 SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN DOMINATED BY MAJOR NERN CONUS CYCLONE...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO FILL AND LIFT SLOWLY NWD ACROSS ERN GREAT LAKES REGION. UPPER RIDGE OVER ROCKIES WILL BE BREACHED EARLY IN PERIOD BY SRN STREAM JET...ASSOCIATED WITH PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CROSSING SRN PACIFIC COAST. ONE OF THESE TROUGHS -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY SW OF CA IN BETWEEN 125W-130W -- IS FCST TO MOVE ONSHORE SRN CA DAY-1 THEN ACROSS ERN GREAT BASIN/CENTRAL ROCKIES REGION THIS PERIOD. OPERATIONAL AND SREF GUIDANCE IS IN REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE MOVING FROM CO TO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AFTER 25/00Z...AND ASSOCIATED HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS SRN ROCKIES/SRN PLAINS THROUGH MOST OF PERIOD. AT SFC...LEE-SIDE CYCLOGENESIS EXPECTED OVER SERN CO/NERN NM AREA...ATTACHED SFC TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS ERN NM AND FAR W TX. POSTFRONTAL SFC HIGH WILL MOVE RAPIDLY SEWD FROM CENTRAL PLAINS ACROSS NRN GULF. ...SRN ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS... WIDELY SCATTERED AND HIGH-BASED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING AFTERNOON OVER SRN ROCKIES...WITH CONVECTION FARTHER E ON HIGH PLAINS AND INVOF LEE TROUGH BEING MORE ISOLATED BECAUSE OF CAPPING. EXPECT SFC THETAE TO SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH DAYLIGHT HOURS -- PRIMARILY AS RESIDUAL MOISTURE ADVECTS NWWD FROM CONTINENTAL SFC HIGH THAT SHOULD SETTLE OVER NRN GULF. THOUGH MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING/EWD PROGRESSION OF LEE TROUGH DURING DAY...EXPECT AND DOWNSLOPE/SWLY FLOW INCREASES TO ITS W DURING AFTERNOON. THESE PROCESSES WILL RESULT IN WEAK DRYLINE WITH SFC DEW POINTS UPPER 30S TO LOW 50S TO ITS E BY 25/00Z. ALTHOUGH DEEPLY MIXED SUBCLOUD LAYERS WILL MAXIMIZE POTENTIAL FOR ANY STRONG DOWNDRAFTS OR HAIL THAT IS GENERATED TO REACH SFC...BUOYANCY SHOULD BE MARGINAL BECAUSE OF WEAK MOISTURE. THEREFORE SEVERE PROBABILITIES ARE TOO SMALL TO WARRANT CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK ATTM. SOMEWHAT FARTHER E AND AFTER DARK...A FEW SMALL BANDS OR CLUSTERS OF NOCTURNAL CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP OVER SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS. STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT REGIME SHOULD RAISE MARGINALLY MOIST PARCELS TO HIGHLY ELEVATED LFCS IN A FEW AREAS FROM WRN KS TO WRN OK AND NW TX. WEAK CAPE WILL MITIGATE SEVERE POTENTIAL. ..EDWARDS.. 04/23/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Apr 23 17:21:11 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 23 Apr 2005 12:21:11 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200504231731.j3NHVEiq028040@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 231729 SWODY2 SPC AC 231728 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1228 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2005 VALID 241200Z - 251200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE 63S MSO 10 ESE WEY 10 SSE LND 4FC PUB 45 S LHX EHA CSM ADM TYR 15 S LFK HOU PSX 10 E HDO 20 SE DRT ...CONT... DUG PRC IGM LAS 15 SE TVL MHS 10 SW MFR PDX 55 ENE BLI. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... STABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE NATION EAST OF THE ROCKIES...IN WAKE OF SURFACE FRONTAL PASSAGE ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL CYCLONE CURRENTLY STILL EVOLVING OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. CENTER OF THIS CIRCULATION IS PROGGED TO ROTATE INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...WHEN SYSTEM MAY BEGIN TO SLOWLY WEAKEN. BLOCKING PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC/WESTERN NORTHERN AMERICA...BUT MODELS INDICATE CENTER OF BROAD SOUTHERN BRANCH CIRCULATION WILL REFORM FARTHER WEST OF THE PACIFIC COAST. SIGNIFICANT JET STREAK CURRENTLY PROGRESSING THROUGH BASE OF THIS CIRCULATION...AND READILY EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY...IS PROGGED BY MODELS TO MIGRATE INTO THE NORTHERN MEXICAN PLATEAU LATER TONIGHT. MODELS INDICATE THIS FEATURE AND ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER SHORT WAVE WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD SUNDAY...GRADUALLY BREAKING DOWN UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS REGION. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND RETURN FLOW OF GULF MOISTURE INTO TEXAS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. ...LEE OF SRN ROCKIES INTO TEXAS... MODELS SUGGEST CLOUDINESS/PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME SHOULD SPREAD EAST OF THE NEW MEXICO HIGH PLAINS EARLY ENOUGH IN THE DAY TO ALLOW SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE HEATING BY LATE AFTERNOON. WHILE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL LIKELY NOT OCCUR INTO THIS REGION...ENOUGH MOISTENING IS EXPECTED FOR MIXED LAYER CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 500 J/KG. NEAR/SHORTLY AFTER PEAK HEATING...WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE. ENHANCED BY MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES... A STORM OR TWO COULD BRIEFLY APPROACH OR EXCEED SEVERE LIMITS BEFORE DIMINISHING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AND LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL TEXAS LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. ON LEADING EDGE OF BETTER GULF MOISTURE RETURN...INSTABILITY COULD BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED STORMS WITH HAIL ACROSS PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS SUNDAY EVENING...POSSIBLY INTO I-35 CORRIDOR OF CENTRAL TEXAS BY EARLY MONDAY. ...INTERMOUNTAIN WEST... MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS A BROAD AREA OF THE WEST SUNDAY...GENERALLY BENEATH MID-LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH AXIS...SOUTH/WEST OF DEFORMATION ZONE SETTING UP FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. ..KERR.. 04/23/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Apr 24 05:55:55 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 24 Apr 2005 00:55:55 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200504240605.j3O65uBO006384@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 240603 SWODY2 SPC AC 240602 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0102 AM CDT SUN APR 24 2005 VALID 251200Z - 261200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW PSX SAT 40 E JCT BWD SPS 30 NW OKC JLN SGF UNO MEM CBM 35 WSW 0A8 30 S SEM DHN MAI 25 WNW AQQ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DRT SJT 45 NNW SJT BGS MAF INK ELP SAD IGM DRA RBL MFR EUG SLE PDX YKM ALW BOI TWF EVW VEL CAG LAR CYS LIC 55 N LAA GLD EAR YKN AXN BJI 50 SSW INL RHI MTW AZO FWA MIE BMG OWB BNA RMG ATL ABY 50 SSE TLH. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS POTIONS CENTRAL/ERN TX/OK TO LOWER MS VALLEY AND WRN FL PANHANDLE... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL REMAIN DOMINATED BY BROAD GREAT LAKES CYCLONE...WHICH IS FCST TO CONTINUE FILLING AND LIFTING NWD OVER SWRN QUE THROUGH PERIOD. HOWEVER...SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER SERN NWT AND EXTREME NRN MB -- IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY AND DIG SWD WITHIN WRN SEMICIRCLE OF GREAT LAKES VORTEX. AS THIS OCCURS...MARGINALLY CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW NOW MOVING ASHORE SRN CA WILL BECOME ENTRAINED INTO TIGHTENING HEIGHT GRADIENTS OVER SRN PLAINS AND ACCELERATE SEWD ACROSS NRN TX AS OPEN-WAVE TROUGH. ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLOGENESIS LATE DAY-1 OVER ERN CO WILL LEAD TO PRONOUNCED SFC LOW...PRECEDING MIDLEVEL TROUGH DURING DAY2 PERIOD ACROSS NWRN/N-CENTRAL TX OR SWRN/S-CENTRAL OK. BY 26/00Z...SFC CYCLONE SHOULD SETTLE INTO AREA BETWEEN OKC-DFW-SPS...SHARPENING DRYLINE EXTENDING SWD ACROSS CENTRAL TX...COLD FRONT NEWD ACROSS ERN KS AND IA TO FRONTAL WAVE LOW INVOF WRN/CENTRAL WI. AS SRN STREAM MIDLEVEL TROUGH WEAKENS OVERNIGHT...SO WILL ASSOCIATED SFC LOW. BY END OF PERIOD...COLD FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM WI CYCLONE SWWD ACROSS SERN MO TO S-CENTRAL/SW TX...DRYLINE ALIGNED NE-SW ACROSS TX COASTAL PLAIN. ...SRN PLAINS TO LOWER MS VALLEY... SCATTERED TSTMS FCST TO DEVELOP ALONG AND E OF DRYLINE AND COLD FRONT DURING AFTERNOON...PERSISTING THROUGH EVENING WITH ONE OR MORE MCS EVOLVING AFTER DARK. SOME SUPERCELLS MAY DEVELOP WITH DAMAGING HAIL AND POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES DURING AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER PORTIONS CENTRAL/NRN/ERN TX AND PERHAPS S-CENTRAL/SERN OK...SHIFTING EWD SUBSEQUENTLY OVER ARKLATEX...E TX AND LA. SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY SHIFT INTO PORTIONS MS/AL OVERNIGHT. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE FCST TO STRENGTHEN THROUGHOUT PERIOD AHEAD OF MIDLEVEL WAVE...AND OVER MUCH OF MOIST SECTOR. COMBINATION OF ISALLOBARICALLY FORCED FLOW BACKING AHEAD OF SFC CYCLONE...AND TIGHTENING MIDLEVEL GRADIENTS...WILL RESULT IN FAVORABLY ENLARGED LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND BULK SHEARS...I.E. 0-1 KM SRH 100-200 J/KG AND 50-60 KT EFFECTIVE LOW-MIDLEVEL SHEAR. THIS SUPPORTS POTENTIAL FOR ALL MODES OF SEVERE...INCLUDING SOME SIGNIFICANT EVENTS...ASSOCIATED WITH SUPERCELLS AND BOWS. BIGGEST CONCERN -- AND WHAT KEEPS PROBABILITIES BARELY BELOW CATEGORICAL MDT RISK THRESHOLDS ATTM -- REMAINS UNCERTAINTIES ABOUT MAGNITUDE AND SPATIAL EXTENT OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS OUTLOOK AREA. MODIFIED MODEL FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE LOW 60S F SFC DEW POINTS OVER N-CENTRAL/NE TX...AND MID 60S SE TX...WILL BE SUFFICIENT IN COMBINATION WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND DRYLINE LIFT TO BREAK CAP. SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEW POINTS WILL LOWER LCL AND INCREASE PROBABILITIES FOR SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES. ATTM POST-FRONTAL CONTINENTAL HIGH AND ASSOCIATED OFFSHORE FLOW HAVE SHUNTED MID 60S DEW POINTS TO TAMPICO AREA...70S INTO BAY OF CAMPECHE. COMBINATION OF MARINE MODIFICATION JUST N OF PRESENT 60-65 DEG ISODROSOTHERMS...AND MOIST ADVECTION IN LATE DAY1/EARLY DAY2 RETURN FLOWS...SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO 60S DEW POINTS AT LEAST INTO CENTRAL/ERN TX...PERHAPS NEAR RED RIVER...IN NARROW CORRIDOR. IN THIS SCENARIO MLCAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG ARE POSSIBLE...GIVEN STEEP 8-9 DEG C/KM LAPSE RATES. FAVORABLE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING AND MUCAPES OF AROUND 2000 J/KG MAY SPREAD EWD ACROSS LOWER MS VALLEY OVERNIGHT...HELPING TO SUPPORT EWD SPREAD OF SEVERE THREAT. ...ELSEWHERE... OCCASIONAL STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS MAY DEVELOP INVOF COLD FRONT FARTHER N/NE ACROSS OZARKS...PERHAPS AS FAR N UPPER MS VALLEY...IN ZONE OF STRONG DEEP-LAYER FORCING AHEAD OF NRN STREAM TROUGH. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SFC-BASED BUOYANCY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH WITH NWD EXTENT ACROSS OZARKS INTO IA...RESULTING IN MARGINAL/CONDITIONAL SEVERE PROBABILITIES. ETA/SPECTRAL INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF WEAK SRN STREAM MIDLEVEL WAVE...AND NEAR MARINE/WARM FRONT...OVERNIGHT IN SERN LA/WRN FL PANHANDLE CORRIDOR. ALTHOUGH LAPSE RATES AND BUOYANCY WILL NOT BE AS LARGE AS FARTHER W...VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES INDICATE SEVERE THREAT WITH ANY SUCH ACTIVITY AS WELL. ..EDWARDS.. 04/24/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Apr 24 17:43:20 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 24 Apr 2005 12:43:20 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200504241753.j3OHrKZg027572@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 241748 SWODY2 SPC AC 241747 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1247 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2005 VALID 251200Z - 261200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW PSX 35 NNW NIR 45 NNW SAT 10 ESE BWD 20 N FSI 35 SE END 25 ESE FSM 45 ENE LIT 25 SSW UOX 55 NW MEI 50 NNE MOB 10 ENE CEW 25 W PFN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DRT 50 SW SJT 25 NW FST ELP 45 ENE TUS IGM 20 NE SGU 25 SSE U24 50 NW ENV 35 NE BNO ALW 20 SSW S80 35 SSW 27U 30 ESE IDA 30 SE BPI 15 NW CAG 4FC 40 WSW COS 25 SE RTN 40 WNW EHA 35 NE GLD 15 E GRI 30 SE SPW 50 SSE RST 30 NNE MMO BMG 35 SW CKV 30 SSW HSV 30 S AUO 20 NW AQQ. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL / SRN PLAINS THIS PERIOD...WITH TIME BECOMING EMBEDDED WITHIN WLY FLOW ON SRN PERIPHERY OF NERN US/ SERN CANADA VORTEX. BROAD BELT OF MODERATELY-STRONG MID-LEVEL WLY FLOW CENTERED ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE GULF COAST...WHILE WIDESPREAD WARM ADVECTION PERSISTS ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS REGION. AT THE SURFACE...MAIN QUESTION THIS PERIOD WILL BE DEGREE OF MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS / WRN GULF COAST REGION. LOW INITIALLY FORECAST OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS SRN OK / N TX...WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING SWD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. MEANWHILE...DRYLINE SHOULD MIX EWD ACROSS CENTRAL TX THROUGH THE DAY. ...ERN HALF OF THE SRN PLAINS EWD TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY... AS MENTIONED...MOISTURE RETURN REMAINS IN QUESTION THIS FORECAST PERIOD. ATTM...WINDS REMAIN NELY ACROSS THE GULF AS STRONG COLD FRONT PROGRESSES SWD...WITH 60 DEGREE ISODROSOTHERM NOW INTO THE CENTRAL / SRN GULF -- WELL S OF BROWNSVILLE. WITH TIME...FLOW WILL SLOWLY TURN EWD AND THEN SEWD ACROSS THE WRN GULF INTO TX...ALLOWING PARTIALLY-MODIFIED BOUNDARY LAYER TO SPREAD NWD. HOWEVER...WARM ADVECTION ONGOING ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS SHOULD BE FUELING AN AREA OF WIDESPREAD CLOUDS / THUNDERSTORMS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...AND THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVELS MOISTEN. THOUGH MAJORITY OF THIS PRECIPITATION SHOULD SHIFT EWD TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON...CLEARING / HEATING SHOULD BE LIMITED BEHIND THIS ACTIVITY / AHEAD OF DRYLINE. NONETHELESS...IT APPEARS THAT SUFFICIENT HEATING / DESTABILIZATION OF MOISTENING /50S TO LOW 60S DEWPOINTS/ BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD RESULT IN NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG / AHEAD OF DRYLINE ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND ERN TX...AND NWD INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL / ERN OK BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. DESPITE ONGOING QUESTIONS REGARDING MOISTENING / DESTABILIZATION...MODERATELY-STRONG / VEERING WIND FIELD WITH HEIGHT WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED / SUPERCELL STORMS. GREATEST SEVERE THREAT SHOULD EXIST ALONG AND E OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR FROM ERN PORTIONS OF THE HILL COUNTRY TO THE DFW METROPLEX AND INTO NERN TX...WHERE MOISTURE RETURN -- AND THUS INSTABILITY -- SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED. IN ADDITION TO STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUPPORTING A LARGE HAIL THREAT...LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES -- PARTICULARLY IN SRN PORTIONS OF THREAT AREA WHERE GREATEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRONGEST DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD IS ANTICIPATED. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD SHIFT SLOWLY EWD THROUGH THE EVENING / OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL LIKELY DIMINISH WITH TIME GIVEN COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER AND LESSER LOW-LAYER MOISTURE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION. ..GOSS.. 04/24/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Apr 25 17:21:09 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 25 Apr 2005 12:21:09 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200504251731.j3PHVAhV018966@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 251729 SWODY2 SPC AC 251728 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1228 PM CDT MON APR 25 2005 VALID 261200Z - 271200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DAB 15 WSW PIE ...CONT... 20 NE GLS 10 NNW GLH 40 SSW MKL 35 NNE MSL RMG ATL 40 SE MCN SSI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PBI EYW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MFE 10 SSE NIR 15 SSW SHV 15 SE CGI IND 20 W CAK 15 WNW DUJ 25 SE AVP 10 ESE EWR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 4OM GEG 27U 45 S CPR LAR 40 N 4FC GJT DRO 55 S ALS DHT 55 E AMA CDS 40 NNW BGS CNM ALM TCS SOW LAS RNO RBL 35 W MHS EUG PDX 65 ESE BLI 4OM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES.... ...SYNOPSIS... COLD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE ERN U.S. WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE NRN CA COAST AND MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SWRN U.S. STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL POLAR JET WILL EXTEND SSEWD ALONG BACK SIDE OF ERN U.S. TROUGH HELPING TO ROTATE THE TROUGH EWD TOWARDS THE NERN U.S. TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. SECOND STRONG COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM A LOW OVER NERN LOWER MI SWD/SWWD THROUGH ANOTHER WEAKER LOW OVER SRN IL...THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH EWD DURING THE PERIOD EXTENDING FROM ERN OH INTO THE NWRN GULF OF MEXICO BY 27/00Z...THEN FROM CENTRAL NY STATE AND THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS AND THE CENTRAL FL PANHANDLE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. ...CENTRAL GULF STATES... CURRENTLY...SURFACE DEW POINTS ACROSS THIS AREA RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS CENTRAL MS TO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S ACROSS THE LA COAST INTO SERN TX. MODELS SEEM TO AGREE THAT 60 DEGREE DEW POINTS WILL BE INTO CENTRAL MS BY TUESDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THUS...THE MODELS ARE DEPICTING A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH MLCAPE OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG AND LIFTED INDICES BETWEEN -4 AND -8. ANALYSIS OF POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM INDICATE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 7.5C/KM INDICATING FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME LARGE HAIL. THESE SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE SOME DRYING AT MID LEVELS AS 700-500 MB WINDS RANGE BETWEEN 45-60 KT SUPPORTING THE TRANSFER OF DOWNWARD MOMENTUM FOR DAMAGING WINDS. HAVE NOTICED IN THE MODEL DATA SOME FAVORABLE SPEED 0-3 KM SHEAR ACROSS PARTS OF SRN MS...SRN AL INTO THE FL PANHANDLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WOULD INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME ISOLATED SUPERCELLS/TORNADOES DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT/SQUALL LINE. ..MCCARTHY.. 04/25/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Apr 26 04:46:38 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 25 Apr 2005 23:46:38 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200504260456.j3Q4uWdi004325@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 260454 SWODY2 SPC AC 260453 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1153 PM CDT MON APR 25 2005 VALID 271200Z - 281200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ONP PDX YKM ALW MQM RIW AIA OLU OMA UIN SLO MVN PAH DYR MEM PBF 40 N TXK MLC PNC 55 SSW HLC PUB U17 P38 55 NW DRA 45 NNW NID 45 WSW FAT SFO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S CTY 50 N DAB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM WAL DOV ABE MSV PSF ORH ACK. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL VORTEX OVER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL REMAIN DOMINANT SYNOPTIC FEATURE THROUGH PERIOD...AS ITS PRIMARY CIRCULATION CENTER PIVOTS NNWWD TO NWWD ACROSS NWRN ONT. SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW DIGGING SEWD ACROSS NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY -- SHOULD MOVE EWD FROM SRN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS EWD TO TIDEWATER/MID ATLANTIC COASTAL REGION. AT SFC...COLD FRONT NOW ANALYZED FROM LM AREA SWWD ACROSS OZARKS...SERN OK AND NW TX...SHOULD BE MOVING OFFSHORE NC AND SEWD ACROSS NRN/CENTRAL FL PENINSULA BY 27/12Z. LEE-SIDE CYCLOGENESIS AND WARM FRONTOGENESIS IS EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL PLAINS DURING DAY. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE SCATTER IN 21Z SREF SOLUTIONS FOR TRACK OF THIS LOW...MORE SO THAN STRONG AGREEMENT NOTED BETWEEN OPERATIONAL 26/00Z RUNS OF SPECTRAL/ETA. EXPECT CYCLONE TO MOVE SEWD FROM ERN CO/WRN KS ARE ACROSS SWRN KS/NRN OK BY 28/12Z...SFC WARM FRONT ENEWD ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN MO. ...CENTRAL/SRN FL... BAND OF CONVECTION MAY BE ONGOING AT BEGINNING OF PERIOD OVER PORTIONS CENTRAL OR SRN FL...AND ADJACENT ERN GULF WATERS. BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IS EXPECTED TO VEER WITH TIME THROUGH LATE DAY-1 INTO EARLY DAY-2 PERIOD...REDUCING CONVERGENCE ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AND MAKING PREFRONTAL VERTICAL WIND PROFILES ALMOST UNIDIRECTIONAL. LOW LEVEL THETAE ADVECTION OFF ERN GULF MAY KEEP AIR MASS SUFFICIENTLY UNSTABLE FOR TSTMS AMIDST WEAKENING LIFT. UPPER 60S F SFC DEW POINTS CONTRIBUTE TO AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG SBCAPES BASED ON MODIFIED ETA/ETA-KF FCST SOUNDINGS. A FEW STRONG-SEVERE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE...HOWEVER OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED BY WEAK LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND DECREASING TRENDS IN NEAR-SFC FORCING. ...LOWER MO VALLEY/OZARKS AREA TO SRN PLAINS... ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED ELEVATED TSTMS POSSIBLE AFTER DARK...ON BOTH SIDES OF SFC WARM FRONT. 50-60 KT LLJ SHOULD ADVECT INCOMPLETELY MODIFIED RETURN FLOW AIR NNEWD FROM NWRN GULF TOWARD THAT AREA. ASSOCIATED ISENTROPIC ASCENT MAY FORCE SOME PARCELS TO LFC NEAR 700 MB LEVEL. ALTHOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE STRONG THROUGH DEEP LAYER STARTING AT SFC...EFFECTIVE SHEAR FOR ELEVATED PARCELS MAY BE MUCH SMALLER. THAT FACTOR PLUS SMALL ELEVATED BUOYANCY INDICATES AGAINST ASSIGNING SEVERE PROBABILITIES ATTM. FARTHER SW...DRYLINE SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS TX PANHANDLE AND W-CENTRAL TX ALONG INTERFACE BETWEEN DOWNSLOPE/WLYS AND GRADUALLY MOISTENING TRAJECTORIES FROM S TX. HOWEVER...PRIND ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AND LACK OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE RETURN WILL KEEP DRYLINE CAPPED. ..EDWARDS.. 04/26/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Apr 26 17:39:13 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 26 Apr 2005 12:39:13 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200504261749.j3QHn68w019698@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 261747 SWODY2 SPC AC 261746 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1246 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2005 VALID 271200Z - 281200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ONP PDX YKM ALW MQM RIW AIA OLU OMA UIN SLO MVN PAH DYR MEM 15 SW PBF 40 N TXK 25 NNE MLC 35 WNW END 25 N LBL 15 S PUB U17 P38 55 NW DRA 45 NNW NID 45 WSW FAT SFO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S CTY 50 N DAB ...CONT... 35 SE OAJ 20 SSE DCA 20 WSW ABE MSV PSF ORH ACK. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ZONAL ACROSS MUCH OF THE U.S. ON WEDNESDAY...AS A BROAD CLOSED LOW RETROGRADES WWD FROM ONTARIO INTO MANITOBA. A TROUGH NOW LOCATED FROM THE WRN GREAT LAKES TO LOWER MS VALLEY IS PROGGED TO TRACK ENEWD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING AND THEN OFF THE SRN NEW ENGLAND COAST BY 12Z THURSDAY. IN THE WEST...HEIGHTS WILL FALL ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AS A TROUGH ROTATING AROUND WRN PERIPHERY OF THE CANADA CLOSED LOW MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NW...AND A LARGE CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW NOW OFF THE WEST COAST MOVES INLAND OVER CA. ...CENTRAL/SRN FL... COLD FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...WILL LIKELY EXTEND FROM A SURFACE LOW OVER THE DELMARVA REGION SSWWD ALONG THE EAST COAST TO NRN FL AT 12Z WEDNESDAY. THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST AND ALSO SWD ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA THIS FORECAST PERIOD. VEERED LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT ACROSS FL WILL LIMIT CONVERGENCE. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ALONG/S OF THE FRONT OVER CENTRAL AND/OR SRN FL. DESPITE WEAK LAPSE RATES SOUTH OF THE FRONT...SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S SHOULD SUPPORT MODERATE INSTABILITY FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. A FEW STRONG-SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT WEAK LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND DECREASING TREND IN FORCING ALONG THE FRONT WILL LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL. ...SRN PLAINS TO OZARKS/LOWER MO VALLEY... LEE CYCLOGENESIS OVER ERN CO/SWRN KS AND WARM FRONTOGENESIS INTO THE SRN PLAINS ARE EXPECTED AS WLY MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS FROM THE SWRN STATES TO THE SRN PLAINS. MODELS SUGGEST SEVERAL LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL EJECT EWD TOWARD THE SRN PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF THE CLOSED LOW MOVING ONSHORE OVER CA. ONE OF THESE TROUGHS IS EXPECTED TO AID IN THE ESEWD MOVEMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW ALONG THE WARM INTO NRN OK WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE RETURN PER SLY FLOW ACROSS TX/OK EAST OF A DRY LINE WILL BE MODEST. THIS COMBINED WITH AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ARE EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE BASED STORMS ALONG THE DRY LINE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL/NRN TX INTO SRN OK. A GREATER THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALONG/N OF WARM FRONT AS THE SLY LLJ STRENGTHENS. WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND INSTABILITY BASED AROUND 700 MB WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED STORMS. EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT A FEW HAIL EVENTS...BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE FOR SEVERE HAIL IS LOW...AND THUS DOES NOT WARRANT HAIL PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME. ..PETERS.. 04/26/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Apr 28 06:05:18 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 28 Apr 2005 01:05:18 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200504280615.j3S6FlRo012723@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 280612 SWODY2 SPC AC 280611 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0111 AM CDT THU APR 28 2005 VALID 291200Z - 301200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSE GPT ESF SHV 40 E PRX PGO FSM HRO SLO IND DAY CMH UNI HTS TYS LGC PFN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 E ECG RWI RDU CLT AGS 45 W CTY ...CONT... 25 SSW BPT 60 SSW TYR 20 WNW PRX MKO TUL PNC 45 NE GAG DDC HLC HSI LNK OTM MLI CGX BEH AZO JXN DTW ERI BFD IPT ABE 35 SE NEL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM SVE 35 NE RBL MHS MFR EUG SLE PDX YKM ALW SUN BYI 60 NNW ENV EKO LOL SVE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W RTN 40 SW COS 30 NNW COS LIC LAA DHT TCC LVS 25 W RTN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ARKLATEX REGION TO LOWER/MID OH VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVE SRN STREAM PATTERN IS FCST TO PREVAIL THROUGH PERIOD. MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY APPROXIMATELY 20 NM OFFSHORE MRY -- IS FCST TO MOVE INLAND DAY-1 AND ACROSS GREAT BASIN. THIS FEATURE SHOULD ACCELERATE EWD ACROSS SRN ROCKIES AND SRN HIGH PLAINS AROUND BEGINNING OF PERIOD...AS NRN STREAM TROUGH NOW OVER ALBERTA DIGS SEWD. SRN TROUGH THEN WILL ACCELERATE EWD ACROSS OK AND OZARKS THEN NEWD OVER OH VALLEY...REACHING ERN INDIANA/WRN OH AREA BY 30/12Z. ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM OK NEWD ACROSS OZARKS AND LOWER OH VALLEY DURING DAY3...DEEPENING CONSIDERABLY WHILE ATTACHED COLD FRONT SWEEPS SEWD OVER SRN PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY. WARM FRONT SHOULD LIFT NWD ACROSS TN VALLEY REGION AND NERN AR/MO BOOTHEEL AREAS...AHEAD OF SFC LOW. ...LOWER MS VALLEY REGION TO CENTRAL/ERN GULF COAST... POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT REMAINS POSSIBLE -- PARTICULARLY ALONG AND JUST RIGHTWARD OF SFC CYCLONE TRACK...WHERE SHEAR/INSTABILITY COMBINATIONS SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED. BECAUSE OF INTENSE DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELDS...STORMS WILL BE FAST MOVING AND ANY SUSTAINED/DISCRETE SUPERCELLS THAT DO DEVELOP COULD PRODUCE LONG TRACK TORNADOES. MAIN FACTOR PRECLUDING OUTLOOK UPGRADE ATTM REMAINS UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING CONVECTIVE MODE -- PARTICULARLY...DURATION OF ANY THREAT FOR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS IN THAT ZONE OF ENHANCED SHEAR NEAR SFC CYCLONE...AND POTENTIAL FOR QUICK TRANSITION TO LINEAR/CLUSTERED CONVECTION. LATEST DRT/MAF RAOBS INDICATE SOME RELATIVELY STABLE LAYERS IN MIDLEVELS CORRESPONDING TO INCOMPLETE DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED MIXED LAYER. THIS REGIME ALOFT -- TRANSLATED NEWD -- INDICATES POTENTIAL FOR RELATIVELY UNCAPPED AIR MASS THAT WOULD SUPPORT RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM. VIGOROUS LOW LEVEL WAA REGIME THROUGH DAY1 AND EARLY DAY2 WILL COMBINE WITH SFC HEATING TO DESTABILIZE WRM SECTOR ACROSS ERN PORTION OF OUTLOOK AREA DURING DAY...AMIDST SFC DEW POINTS MOISTENING INTO 60S F. THIS LEADS TO AFTERNOON MLCAPES 1500-2000 J/KG IN MODIFIED ETA FCST SOUNDINGS. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR BOTH SUPERCELLS AND DAMAGING BOW ECHOES...WITH 70-80 KT MIDLEVEL FLOWS CONTRIBUTING TO SIMILAR VALUES OF AFTERNOON 0-6 KM LAYER SHEARS. NARROW AREA OF BACKED SFC FLOW INVOF WARM FRONT MAY PRODUCE 0-6 KM AND EFFECTIVE LAYER SHEARS AROUND 90 KT...AND 0-1 KM SRH EXCEEDING 200 J/KG. TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS THROUGHOUT LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING...PERHAPS BACKBUILDING AS FAR AS GULF COASTAL REGION OF MS/AL/FL PANHANDLE BY END OF PERIOD...WITH DAMAGING WIND BEING MAIN THREAT BUT SUPERCELLS/TORNADOES STILL POSSIBLE. ...OH VALLEY REGION... AS SFC LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND LIFT NEWD...VIGOROUS ISALLOBARIC FORCING WILL MAINTAIN/EXPAND BOTH BACKING OF SFC FLOW AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO POTENTIAL FOR STRONGLY FORCED...POSSIBLY LOW-TOPPED ARC OF CONVECTION MOVING RAPIDLY NEWD ACROSS REGION OVERNIGHT...WITH POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE. MAIN LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT SFC-BASED BUOYANCY...RELATED TO 1. WITH NEWD EXTENT...PROGRESSIVELY MORE INFLOW TRAJECTORIES ORIGINATING FROM RELATIVELY LOW THETAE AIR MASS OF CONTINENTAL ANTICYCLONE TO THE E/SE...AND 2. LIKELY WEAKENING TREND IN INSTABILITY WITH TIME...AS DIABATIC COOLING COUNTERACTS SFC WAA. ..EDWARDS.. 04/28/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Apr 28 17:43:55 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 28 Apr 2005 12:43:55 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200504281754.j3SHsNVh016705@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 281752 SWODY2 SPC AC 281751 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1251 PM CDT THU APR 28 2005 VALID 291200Z - 301200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W LIT 50 WSW ARG 15 NNW DYR 40 SW CKV 40 NNW MSL CBM 30 ENE JAN 45 NNE HEZ 30 WSW MLU 15 SW ELD 15 W LIT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE BPT 25 SE CLL 25 NE CLL 15 S PRX 30 WNW PGO 45 E TUL 15 WSW JLN 20 SSE TBN IND DAY CMH UNI HTS 40 SW HSS 25 ENE CSG PFN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E PSX 35 ESE AUS 30 N DAL 45 WSW MKO 35 WNW TUL PNC 45 NE GAG DDC HLC HSI LNK OTM MLI CGX BEH AZO JXN DTW ERI BFD IPT ABE 35 SE NEL ...CONT... 50 E ECG RWI RDU 20 ESE CLT 20 E AGS 35 WNW CTY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM SVE 35 NE RBL MHS MFR EUG SLE PDX YKM ALW SUN BYI 60 NNW ENV EKO LOL SVE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W RTN 40 SW COS 30 NNW COS LIC LAA DHT TCC LVS 25 W RTN. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL/ERN AR AND NRN LA EWD TO WRN TN AND CENTRAL/NRN MS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MODERATE RISK FROM ERN TX/ERN OK TO THE OH/TN VALLEYS AND CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES... ...WIDESPREAD THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER/MID MS AND LOWER TN VALLEYS REGION... ...SYNOPSIS... SHORT WAVE TROUGHS...ONE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO CA/NV AND THE SECOND APPROACHING THE NRN ROCKIES ATTM...ARE EXPECTED TO PHASE FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO LOWER TN VALLEY REGION BY FRIDAY NIGHT. A BROAD AND STRONG /70+ KT/ WSWLY MID LEVEL JET WILL ACCOMPANY THE SRN STREAM TROUGH AND IS EXPECTED TO NOSE INTO THE LOWER OH/LOWER TN VALLEYS BY 30/00Z. GIVEN THE BREADTH OF THIS MID-LEVEL JET...50+ KT WSWLY WINDS WILL EXTEND FROM SRN TX TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES DURING MUCH OF THE DAY 2 PERIOD. 12Z NAM IS SLOWER WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND FARTHER S WITH THE SURFACE LOW THAN ITS PREVIOUS RUNS...AND MORE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS/ECMWF/CMC TIMING OF THIS STORM SYSTEM. A SURFACE LOW AS INDICATED BY THE 12Z NAM IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER NORTH CENTRAL TX AT 12Z FRIDAY...WITH THIS LOW DEEPENING AS IT TRACKS NEWD PER STRONG HEIGHT FALLS WITH THE PHASING MID LEVEL TROUGHS. THIS LOW SHOULD BE OVER CENTRAL AR BY 30/00Z AND INTO CENTRAL OH BY 12Z SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND NEWD FROM THE SURFACE LOW INTO THE OH VALLEY...AND SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY. NAM SUGGESTS A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY/ SECONDARY WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY FROM CENTRAL AR EWD ALONG THE SRN TN BORDER. ...OZARKS TO ARKLATEX AND EWD ACROSS TN VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES... THUNDERSTORMS...POTENTIALLY SEVERE...ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ACROSS ERN OK INTO PORTIONS OF SRN MO/SWRN AR AS A RESULT OF WAA ALONG THE NOSE OF A 50 KT SWLY LLJ. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NEWD INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION ALONG THE NRN WARM FRONT. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SUPPORTED BY DEEP LAYER ASCENT/WAA AS THE LLJ TRANSLATES EWD TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND WITHIN THE EXIT REGION OF THE MID LEVEL JET. ALTHOUGH MODELS SUGGEST THE MAIN AXIS OF THE MID LEVEL JET WILL BE FROM NRN TX TO THE OH VALLEY...A SRN STREAM JET APPEARS TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY PROVIDING SUFFICIENT DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THIS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEFINE THE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY FOR THE FORMATION OF THE SECOND WARM FRONT. THIS BOUNDARY ALONG WITH A COLD FRONT AND DRY LINE TRAILING SSWWD FROM THE SURFACE LOW OVER CENTRAL AR BY 30/00Z WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCI FOR SEVERE STORMS BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE SLOWER TIMING OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALLOW MORE MOISTURE TO RETURN NWD WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR ALONG A STRENGTHENING SLY LLJ. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SURFACE HEATING WILL RESULT IN A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS /MLCAPE 2500+ J/KG/ ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR /50-60 KT/ WILL BE FAVORABLY ORIENTED FOR SUPERCELLS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES AND HAIL...ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE MODERATE RISK AREA ALONG AND EAST OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACK. THIS LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SEVERE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONGEAL INTO A SQUALL LINE AND MOVE ESEWD ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES WITH DAMAGING WINDS BECOMING THE PRIMARY THREAT FRIDAY NIGHT. ...OH VALLEY REGION... 12Z NAM SUGGESTS SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY INTO SRN IND/WRN KY PROMOTING AREAS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY BY EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THIS AREA. ...ERN TX... ALTHOUGH MUCH OF ERN TX WILL BE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE MID LEVEL JET AND THUS WILL HAVE RELATIVELY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...STRONG SURFACE HEATING MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE CAP BY MID-LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP...DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH SIGNIFICANT HAIL LIKELY GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES. ..PETERS.. 04/28/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 29 07:02:42 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 29 Apr 2005 02:02:42 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200504290713.j3T7D7nJ024356@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 290555 SWODY2 SPC AC 290555 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1255 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2005 VALID 301200Z - 011200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSE JAX 30 N PIE ...CONT... 30 W HUM 25 S MEI 15 SW TCL 35 W CHA 25 NE CHA 55 ESE CHA 15 W AHN 35 ESE AND 25 E HKY 35 SSE PSK 25 SW SHD 30 W MRB 25 ESE AOO 25 N CXY 35 SW ABE 10 SSW DOV 40 SSW WAL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NW VRB 20 SSW FMY ...CONT... 20 SSE BPT 25 E TUP 20 NE BNA 15 ESE LUK 50 SE DTW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 WNW 4OM 25 WSW YKM 30 NNW BKE 35 NE SUN 40 SSW LND 30 SSW LAR 25 WSW IML 20 NW HLC 15 ESE GCK 40 SE TAD 55 S ALS 60 WSW FMN 30 SW SGU 45 WNW BIH 35 SSW UKI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION SWWD TO THE CNTRL/ERN GULF COASTAL AREA... ...SYNOPSIS... A FAST FLOW REGIME ALONG THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE ONTARIO UPPER LOW WILL CARRY A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS AND INTO THE MID/LWR MS VLY FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AND EJECT NEWD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC/LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION BY SATURDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...A LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE MID-OH VLY EARLY SATURDAY TO QUEBEC BY EARLY SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE OH/TN VLYS EWD TO OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD SATURDAY NIGHT. WRN PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS NRN FL. THE FRONT/PRE-FRONTAL/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL BE THE FOCI FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE TSTMS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. ...MID-ATLANTIC/SERN STATES/NRN FL... BANDS OF TSTMS SHOULD BE ONGOING EARLY SATURDAY FROM THE OH VLY SWWD TO THE CNTRL GULF COASTAL AREA ALONG/AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BE STRONG-SEVERE... PRIMARILY FROM ERN TN SWWD THROUGH AL INTO SRN MS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. GULF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT NEWD INTO MUCH OF THE SERN STATES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION ON STRENGTHENING SSWLY LOW- LEVEL FLOW THROUGH SATURDAY. ATOP THE EXPANDING WARM SECTOR... WSWLY H5 FLOW AOA 70 KTS WILL SPREAD EWD THROUGH THE DAY...SETTING THE STAGE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS OVER A BROAD SWATH OF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. MAIN LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE MAGNITUDE OF BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING/ BUOYANCY ALONG RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES/PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. STRONGEST DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CNTRL/ERN GULF COAST NEWD INTO THE CAROLINAS...WITH DECREASING BUOYANCY FARTHER N INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. UNCERTAINTY ON THE MAGNITUDE OF DESTABILIZATION AND OVERALL MESOSCALE EVOLUTIONS PRECLUDES HIGHLIGHTING HIGHER PROBABILITIES WITHIN THE BROAD SLIGHT RISK AREA ATTM. ***SERN STATES*** TSTMS SHOULD INITIATE/INTENSIFY ALONG SERN EDGE OF MORNING CONVECTION ACROSS GA...AL...WRN FL PNHDL AND MOVE SEWD TOWARD THE COAST/NRN FL BY EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF HAIL... DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLD TORNADOES. BUT...THE SEVERE THREATS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH TIME AS STRONGEST LARGE SCALE FORCING PASSES THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. ***MID-ATLANTIC REGION/CAROLINAS*** STRONGER LARGE SCALE FORCING MAY COMPENSATE FOR LESS BUOYANCY FARTHER N...WITH TSTMS APT TO DEVELOP ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM SRN PA INTO THE CAROLINAS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. LOW/MID-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS TORNADOES. ERN EXTENT OF THE SEVERE THREAT WILL PROBABLY BE MODULATED BY MARINE BOUNDARY LAYER FROM DELMARVA NWD. ..RACY.. 04/29/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 29 16:51:23 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 29 Apr 2005 11:51:23 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200504291701.j3TH1nOD001974@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 291659 SWODY2 SPC AC 291658 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1158 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2005 VALID 301200Z - 011200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNW DAB 50 SSE CTY ...CONT... 25 SSE HUM 25 SE MEI BHM 45 SW TYS BLF 25 SSE EKN 25 ESE AOO 35 SSE IPT 10 SE AVP 15 SE POU 20 ENE ISP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE VRB 15 S FMY ...CONT... 30 SSE LCH GWO BNA 20 NW LEX 50 E TOL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 WNW 4OM 25 WSW YKM BKE BPI 30 WSW LAR 45 SW IML RSL 50 ENE GAG 40 WNW PVW ABQ 60 SW CEZ SGU NFL CEC. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL/ERN GULF COASTAL REGION NWD ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST INTO NJ/SRN NY... ...SYNOPSIS... SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE FROM THE NRN PLAINS SEWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY AND THEN NEWD INTO THE NERN STATES...AROUND A LARGE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED IN ONTARIO. A WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER SRN AZ...SHOULD MOVE RAPIDLY EWD IN STRONG SRN STREAM FROM CENTRAL TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION DURING THE DAY. AT THE SURFACE...A LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AND ACCELERATE NEWD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO UPSTATE NY DURING THE DAY...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT ADVANCING EWD ACROSS THE ERN QUARTER OF THE NATION. ...SERN STATES... ONGOING BAND OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM ERN TN/NWRN GA SWWD TO THE AL COAST AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. THESE STORMS MAY BE MARGINALLY SEVERE GIVEN SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S AND MUCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...WITH SURFACE LOW AND STRONGER DYNAMICAL FORCING LIFTING NWD AWAY FROM THE AREA ...SUSPECT STORMS MAY GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE EWD DURING THE MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...THIS BAND/LINE OF STORMS SHOULD INTENSIFY AND BECOME SEVERE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SC/ERN GA/FL PANHANDLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS HEATING AIDS IN STRONGER DESTABILIZATION OF AIR MASS. DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL SWLY FLOW AND THE EXPECTED LINEAR NATURE OF THE CONVECTION SUGGESTS WIND DAMAGE WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT. NAM IS FASTER WITH EWD PROGRESSION OF COLD FRONT ACROSS AL/GA AND ALSO DEVELOPS STRONGER INSTABILITY THAN GFS. WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION...EXPECT SWD PORTION OF FRONT TO BE A LITTLE SLOWER THAN GFS...AND WITH SOME CLEARING AFTER MORNING CONVECTION MOVES EWD...THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOPMENT APPEARS POSSIBLE ALONG FRONT FROM NRN GA SWWD INTO SRN AL/FL PANHANDLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. STORMS THAT DEVELOP WOULD BE IN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...THOUGH VEERED WIND PROFILES INDICATE HAIL IS THE MOSTLY LIKELY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. ...NC NWD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES INTO SRN NY... STRONGER LARGE SCALE FORCING MAY COMPENSATE FOR LESS BUOYANCY THAN AREAS TO THE SOUTH...WITH TSTMS LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN/FRONT FROM SRN PA INTO THE NC BY EARLY AFTERNOON. LOW/MID LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS. ALSO...STRONGER VEERING WIND PROFILES FROM ERN NC NWD INTO DELMARVA SUGGESTS ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE IF ENOUGH HEATING/INSTABILITY CAN MATERIALIZE. INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BE LIMITED FROM DELMARVA NEWD ACROSS NJ/SRN NY AREA... BUT IF A THUNDERSTORM LINE DOES DEVELOP ALONG COLD FRONT...STRONG ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS MAY SUPPORT SOME DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. ..IMY.. 04/29/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Apr 30 05:31:42 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 30 Apr 2005 00:31:42 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200504300542.j3U5g3qS004156@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 300540 SWODY2 SPC AC 300539 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1239 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2005 VALID 011200Z - 021200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ENE BLI 35 WSW YKM 55 SW PDT 30 SE OWY 30 SE MLD 45 S RWL 25 SSE LAR 10 E LIC 30 NW P28 15 NNW END 40 NE CSM 25 NNE TCC 15 N GUP 50 ENE DRA 40 NNE MER 30 SSW MHS 20 NNE EUG 45 NNW CLM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE MIA 20 WNW EYW ...CONT... 15 SSW CTY 45 NNW DAB. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... THE PERSISTENT ONTARIO UPPER VORTEX WILL BEGIN TO EDGE EWD ON SUNDAY WITH AN ACTIVE SRN STREAM CONTINUING FROM CA TO THE SERN STATES. SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SRN STREAM WILL BE DIFFICULT TO TIME. BUT...SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN TAKING THE H5 TROUGH NOW OVER THE SRN ROCKIES TO THE SERN STATES EARLY SUNDAY WHILE WEAKENING. AT THE SURFACE...THE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC/SERN STATES SATURDAY WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BY EARLY SUNDAY. SRN PART OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY SETTLE SLOWLY SWD THROUGH CNTRL AND PERHAPS SRN FL SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND BE THE FOCUS FOR TSTMS. ...CNTRL/SRN FL... BANDS OF TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ACROSS NRN OR CNTRL FL ALONG/N OF THE SWD MOVING COLD FRONT. BOUNDARY LAYER S OF THE FRONT/CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH UPPER 60S TO 70F SURFACE DEW POINTS ADVECTING NEWD ACROSS THE PENINSULA. GIVEN THAT THE H5 TROUGH AXIS WILL BE PASSING OVERHEAD THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON...TSTMS COULD INTENSIFY/DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT OR OTHER BOUNDARIES. THOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD DECREASE FROM N-S ACROSS FL...WLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW REGIME MAY ENCOURAGE A FEW STORMS TO BOW GIVING ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS. THE ISOLD SEVERE RISKS SHOULD MAINLY BE CONFINED TO THE EARLY PART OF THE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE FLOW BECOMES DIVERGENT OWING TO DEVELOPMENT OF A CNTRL GULF OF MEXICO WAVE CYCLONE TOWARD EVENING. ..RACY.. 04/30/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Apr 30 17:04:43 2005 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 30 Apr 2005 12:04:43 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200504301715.j3UHF30b001134@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 301711 SWODY2 SPC AC 301710 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1210 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2005 VALID 011200Z - 021200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 E BLI YKM 55 SW PDT OWY 40 W SLC 15 SE VEL EGE 30 W COS 30 NNE TAD CAO 25 N CVS 40 E 4CR GUP 50 ENE DRA 40 NNE MER 30 SSW MHS EUG 25 W CLM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW CTY 45 NNW DAB. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... ONTARIO UPPER VORTEX WILL BEGIN TO EDGE SLOWLY EWD ON SUNDAY...WHILE SRN STREAM REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE SRN TIER OF THE COUNTRY. MID LEVEL WLY WINDS ACROSS THE SRN U.S. AND NWLY WINDS OVER THE NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS WILL RESULT IN CONFLUENCE ALOFT AND LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO COVER MUCH OF THE NATION. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS ACROSS MOST OF THE COUNTRY WITH MUCH BELOW NORMAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FOR EARLY MAY. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA AS A COLD FRONT... CURRENTLY MOVING EWD THROUGH THE ATLANTIC COASTAL STATES...MOVES SWD ACROSS THAT REGION ON SUNDAY. ...CNTRL/SRN FL PENINSULA... BAND OF TSTMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ACROSS THE CENTRAL FL PENINSULA. STORMS ARE LIKELY TO INTENSIFY BY MIDDAY AS DIURNAL HEATING RESULTS IN MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500 J/KG. HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG AND THE LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED WELL EAST OF THE PENINSULA. THIS SUGGESTS WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND ONLY A MINIMAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. ...SRN ROCKIES/GREAT BASIN AND PACIFIC NW... MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION INTO SUNDAY AND WITH DAYTIME HEATING...MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND LIFT NEAR HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. ..IMY.. 04/30/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.