[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 190723
SWODY2
SPC AC 190719

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0219 AM CDT SUN SEP 19 2004

VALID 201200Z - 211200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE
AIA 15 WNW MHE 30 W SUX 25 E GRI 10 ESE HLC 60 SSW LBL 25 NE DHT 35
SSW IML 15 ESE AIA.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW ANJ 35 NNE RST
10 WNW BIE 15 NNW GAG 40 N MAF 30 SSW P07 ...CONT... 50 SE YUM 50 NW
PHX 45 ENE IGM 35 SSW BCE 4HV 40 NNW PUC 15 ESE ENV 55 ENE U31 25
WSW LOL 30 SE 4LW 25 W BNO 45 NNE BKE 90 ENE 63S ...CONT... 60 N GGW
40 SE LWT 35 N RIW 50 SW DGW 20 SE PHP 45 NNE ABR 40 WNW RRT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSE CTY 35 N DAB.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL PLNS
AND LWR MO VLY...

...SYNOPSIS...
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
NOAM THROUGH THE PERIOD.  SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW DROPPING SSE ALONG
THE SRN CA CST SHOULD ACCELERATE NEWD FROM WY/MT INTO MANITOBA
MONDAY AND PARTIALLY PHASE WITH A DISTURBANCE OF NRN STREAM ORIGIN
OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES.  FARTHER S...REMAINING PART OF WRN
TROUGH EXPECTED TO EDGE ONLY SLOWLY E FROM CA/NV INTO UT/NRN AZ. 
ELSEWHERE...STRONG RIDGE WILL REMAIN DOMINANT FROM THE SRN PLNS INTO
THE GRT LKS AND SERN U.S.

PHASING SHORTWAVE IMPULSES SHOULD INDUCE SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPMENT
ALONG COLD FRONT IN WRN ND EARLY IN THE PERIOD.  THE WAVE SHOULD
DEEPEN AS IT ACCELERATES NEWD INTO CANADA...AND DRIVE TRAILING COLD
FRONT SEWD INTO SRN NEB/NW IA AND ERN MN BY 12Z TUE.  THE SRN PART
OF SAME FRONT SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY S/SE INTO THE SRN RCKYS AND AZ.

...CNTRL HI PLNS TO LWR MO VLY...
COLD FRONT MARKING ERN FRINGE OF WRN U.S. TROUGH WILL BE THE FOCUS
FOR CONVECTION OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL/NRN PLNS THIS PERIOD AS THE
BOUNDARY PROGRESSES SE BENEATH STRONG /50+ KT/ SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW. 
STRONG SURFACE RIDGE PERSISTING FROM TX TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
WILL TEND TO CURTAIL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE
CNTRL PLNS.  IN ADDITION....THE MAIN LLJ WILL BE DIRECTED NEWD INTO
CANADA IN ASSOCIATION WITH MANITOBA SURFACE WAVE THROUGH AT LEAST
MONDAY AFTERNOON.  THIS WILL TEND TO LIMIT DEPTH/INTENSITY OF
CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT.  THESE FACTORS...AND POSITIVE TILT OF LARGE
SCALE TROUGH...SUGGEST THAT FRONTAL-RELATED CONVECTION WILL BE
PRIMARILY POST-FRONTAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

NEVERTHELESS....GIVEN LIKELY PRESENCE OF FAIRLY STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND AFTERNOON HEATING ALONG THE BOUNDARY...A FEW AREAS
OF SURFACE-BASED STORMS DO APPEAR LIKELY IN WEAKLY CAPPED
ENVIRONMENT OVER WRN/NRN NEB NEWD INTO SE SD.  MORE WIDELY SCATTERED
ACTIVITY MAY ALSO DEVELOP SWD ALONG LEE TROUGH INTO WRN KS AND THE
OK/TX PANHANDLE REGION.  AMPLE DEEP SHEAR WILL BE
PRESENT FOR SUSTAINED STORMS/SUPERCELLS AS VALUES RANGE FROM AROUND
40 KTS IN SW KS TO MORE THAN 60 KTS IN NEB/SD. ALTHOUGH
INCREASINGLY MERIDIONAL NATURE OF MEAN FLOW OVER THE RCKYS MAY
SOMEWHAT WEAKEN MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER THE PLNS...LAPSE RATES
SHOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY STEEP /AROUND 7.5 DEG C PER KM/ TO
SUPPORT A FEW STORMS WITH HAIL/HIGH WIND.  FARTHER NE...A FEW STORMS
WITH GUSTY WINDS MAY DEVELOP NEWD ALONG FRONT INTO MN. 

THE STORMS IN NEB/SE SD WILL LIKELY CONSOLIDATE INTO A LINE MONDAY
EVENING AS THE LLJ STRENGTHENS IN RESPONSE TO BOTH DIURNAL FORCING 
AND TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A COUPLED JET STRUCTURE OVER THE CNTRL/NRN
PLNS.  HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD SEVERE ACTIVITY APPEARS UNLIKELY AS
RELATIVELY DRY WARM SECTOR WILL LIMIT DEGREE OF INSTABILITY.

..CORFIDI.. 09/19/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.