From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 1 17:03:36 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 01 Sep 2004 12:03:36 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200409011704.i81H4eL23788@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 011701 SWODY2 SPC AC 011658 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1158 AM CDT WED SEP 01 2004 VALID 021200Z - 031200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SW MRF 25 SSW FST 50 W JCT 15 SSW HDO 45 WNW ALI 55 N BRO ...CONT... 20 WSW GLS 45 NNW BPT 50 E SHV 55 N GLH 45 S CGI 30 ENE SLO 10 NE IND 30 NNE LEX 35 ESE LOZ 35 NE AVL 25 N FAY 35 N HSE ...CONT... 65 SW TUS 65 N TUS 50 ENE SOW 40 NW ABQ 35 N 4CR 20 W ELP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NE DVL 55 NE MBG 50 NE AIA 30 NNE AKO 15 ENE COS 50 E GUC 30 NW 4BL 15 WSW SGU 45 SSE TPH 20 W U31 10 NE OWY 30 SE 27U 40 NE HVR. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL AMPLIFY CONSIDERABLY ACROSS THE WRN STATES ON THURSDAY AS A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY MOVING ASHORE OVER WA/ORE...SPREADS INLAND ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND NRN ROCKIES. GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS TROUGH AND STRONG 60-90M HEIGHT FALLS PER 12H...ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE/DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE NRN ROCKIES AND IS FCST TO BE SITUATED FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO THE SRN GREAT BASIN BY EARLY FRIDAY. ELSEWHERE...RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE MUCH OF THE CNTRL AND ERN U.S. AND ALL EYES WILL BE FOCUSED ON THE TRACK OF HRCN FRANCES ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND ON APPROACH TO FL. ...INTERMOUNTAIN WEST... STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND ENHANCED BY STEEP LAPSE RATES/LOW STATIC STABILITY SHOULD PROMOTE TSTMS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS FROM NRN UT INTO WY AND SWRN/CNTRL MT. HOWEVER...LIMITED CAPE AOB 200 J/KG AND LI VALUES ONLY AROUND 0 TO MINUS 1 SHOULD CURB UPDRAFT INTENSITY DESPITE VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR. A FEW STORMS NEAR THE FRONT COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS OR PERHAPS SMALL HAIL BUT OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE ROCKIES APPEARS MINIMAL AT THIS TIME. ...NRN GREAT PLAINS... STRONG DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE WRN TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN VERY WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LEE/THERMALLY-INDUCED TROUGH FROM ERN CO NEWD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO BE QUITE DRY WITH DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS AND STEEP LAPSE RATES RESULTING IN AFTERNOON CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 200-800 J/KG. HIGH-BASED TSTMS MAY DEVELOP WITHIN THE LEE-TROUGH BY LATE IN THE DAY WITH THE GREATEST HAZARD BEING ISOLD TO WIDELY SCATTERED DOWNBURST WINDS. THIS ACTIVITY MAY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AFTER DARK AS COLD FRONT MERGES WITH THE LEE TROUGH FROM NERN WY INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS. THE BULK OF THIS CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME ELEVATED WITH TIME AS THE COLD FRONT UNDERCUTS THE UPDRAFTS. ..CARBIN.. 09/01/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 2 07:27:00 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 02 Sep 2004 02:27:00 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200409020728.i827S3L03102@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 020726 SWODY2 SPC AC 020723 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0223 AM CDT THU SEP 02 2004 VALID 031200Z - 041200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 S GBN 20 E PRC 15 W GCN 10 SSW SGU ENV BYI 10 NNW SUN S80 70 ENE 63S ...CONT... 10 SE INL GFK MHE BUB SNY 10 WSW DEN 25 SSE ELP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSE DRT ACT TXK 10 ENE UNO 10 S UIN MLI MKG 35 SE OSC ...CONT... 45 NNW YNG JKL ATL MCN AGS GSO 10 E CHO 10 ENE BWI 35 ESE DOV. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM EPM BML MSS. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...DAKOTAS... STRONG UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES ON FRIDAY AS HIGH AMPLITUDE FLOW PATTERN PERSISTS OVER THE WEST. SURFACE FRONT EXTENDING FROM ERN ND SSWWD ACROSS CENTRAL SD...NEB PANHANDLE AND SWWD INTO CO AND SRN UT WILL BE ORIENTED LARGELY PARALLEL TO THE DEEP LAYER SWLY FLOW ALOFT AND SHOULD MOVE LITTLE DURING THE DAY...WITH SMALL EWD PROGRESSION FORECAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DEEP WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER IS FORECAST AGAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING LAYER OF CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AROUND 700 MB LIKELY LIMITING STORMS IN THE SURFACE WARM SECTOR. PRIMARY CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND WEST OF SURFACE FRONT WHERE DYNAMIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH WILL ENHANCE LARGE SCALE ASCENT. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR STORM ORGANIZATION IN THE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS...INSTABILITY WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ELEVATED SUGGESTING ONLY LIMITED THREAT FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS. ...ERN FL... LATEST NHC GUIDANCE INDICATES HURRICANE FRANCES WILL CONTINUE WNWWD TOWARD FL ON DAY 2...WITH THE CIRCULATION CENTER REMAINING OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH 04/12Z. BASED ON THIS PROJECTION...THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THE OUTER BANDS MAY BEGIN TO AFFECT ERN PARTS OF THE PENINSULA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...GREATER THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL LIKELY OCCUR AFTER THIS PERIOD. ..WEISS.. 09/02/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 2 17:26:49 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 02 Sep 2004 12:26:49 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200409021727.i82HRmL20226@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 021725 SWODY2 SPC AC 021722 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1222 PM CDT THU SEP 02 2004 VALID 031200Z - 041200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW ELO 50 NW HIB 55 E FAR ATY 25 NNE BUB 10 WSW LBF 10 S SNY 30 E FCL 40 SSW DEN 35 NW LVS 45 SE ELP ...CONT... 80 S GBN 35 WNW PHX 50 ENE IGM 10 SSE SGU 45 S ENV 15 WSW BYI 30 S S80 70 ENE 63S. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSE DRT 10 WNW ACT 25 N TXK 45 SSW UNO 15 SSW STL 30 W PIA 30 SW MKE 35 NE MKG 35 SE OSC ...CONT... 30 WSW BUF 15 NE JHW 30 S JHW 30 SSW FKL 30 NE HTS 30 NNE TYS 15 WNW ATL 40 SSE ATL 35 E MCN 10 SSE AGS GSO 15 ENE CHO 20 NW DCA 20 WSW ILG 20 ENE ACY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM EPM BML MSS. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...DAKOTAS... A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE WRN UNITED STATES. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EWD WITH STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW. LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL SPREAD EWD INTO THE DAKOTAS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ON FRIDAY. AT THE SFC...A LOW IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS NCNTRL ND WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SSWWD TO NEAR THE BLACK HILLS. A GRADUAL MOISTENING IN THE LOW-LEVELS SHOULD OCCUR ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE LOW AND SPREADS SWD INTO NRN SD. SFC HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS. AND CONSIDERING THE AMOUNT OF VERTICAL SHEAR DUE TO THE STRONG FLOW ALOFT...STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AT THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS. THIS COMBINED WITH 500 MB TEMPS OF -12C AND 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 30 TO 40 KT MAY BE ENOUGH FOR HAIL AND MARGINAL DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. THE STORMS SHOULD FORM ALONG AND TO THE WEST OF THE SFC TROUGH ACROSS THE WRN DAKOTAS...GRADUALLY SPREADING NEWD IN THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. ANY MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AS INSTABILITY DECREASES DURING THE EVENING. ...ERN FL... HURRICANE FRANCES IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING SAN SALVADOR IN THE BAHAMAS. THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES IT WEST NORTHWESTWARD REACHING THE SE TO ECNTRL FL COAST ON SATURDAY MORNING. AS THE HURRICANE APPROACHES FL FRIDAY NIGHT...THE FAR OUTER BANDS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INLAND. A TORNADO THREAT MAY DEVELOP LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE STRONGER BANDS. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW UNIDIRECTIONAL LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILES THAT SHOULD KEEP ANY TORNADO THREAT MINIMAL. ..BROYLES.. 09/02/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Sep 3 17:29:04 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 03 Sep 2004 12:29:04 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200409031730.i83HTxG13002@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 031727 SWODY2 SPC AC 031724 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1224 PM CDT FRI SEP 03 2004 VALID 041200Z - 051200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW MIA 10 NNE FMY 20 NE SRQ 40 SSE CTY 45 ESE VLD 30 E AYS 35 S SAV. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW DRT 25 S UMN 10 NNE ALN 25 NNE BMI RFD 20 N DBQ 30 SSW ALO 25 SSW CNK 30 ESE LBL 25 SSE CVS 50 SE ELP ...CONT... YUM 60 NW GBN 50 SW GCN 25 ENE SGU 45 WNW MLF 15 SE ENV 25 NW MLD 20 WSW JAC 35 SSE COD 50 SW GCC 60 NW CDR 20 WSW PHP 35 SSW JMS 55 W RRT ...CONT... 45 NW ROC 40 SSW SLK 15 SSW PWM ...CONT... 20 NE NEL 30 NNW ILG 10 S CRW 55 NW CHA 10 E MEI 25 NNE BVE ...CONT... 15 ENE AQQ 35 NNE ABY 45 NNW AGS 20 NNE RDU 35 SSW WAL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF FL... ...FL... HURRICANE FRANCES IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN THE NWRN BAHAMA ISLANDS. THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO MOVE NWWD APPROACHING THE FL COAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON. RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE HURRICANE WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INLAND BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND ISOLATED MINI-SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER CELLS EMBEDDED IN THE BANDS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SLIGHTLY VEERED PROFILES JUST AHEAD OF THE HURRICANE IN THE COASTAL AREAS WITH STRONG 0-1 KM SHEAR VALUES. THE SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW TORNADOES ESPECIALLY WITH ROTATING STORMS THAT MOVE ONSHORE. THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL SOMETIME ON SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A DRAMATIC INCREASE IN THE TORNADO THREAT EXPECTED JUST AFTER LANDFALL IN THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE STORM. ...UPPER MS AND UPPER MO VALLEYS... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS TONIGHT REACHING MN AND ERN NEB ON SATURDAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT INCREASES AHEAD OF A WRN US UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. AS INSTABILITY INCREASES SATURDAY AFTERNOON...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AND MOVE SEWD ACROSS MN...ERN SD. A CAPPING INVERSION MAY WEAKEN ENOUGH ACROSS ERN NEB AND NW IA FOR ISOLATED STORMS. SFC DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE 60S F AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALLOWING ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE PRESENT ALOFT AND THIS MAY PRODUCE ENOUGH SHEAR FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ANY STORMS WITH SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD DIE QUICKLY EARLY SATURDAY EVENING AS INSTABILITY DECREASES ACROSS THE REGION. ..BROYLES.. 09/03/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Sep 4 07:40:05 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 04 Sep 2004 02:40:05 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200409040741.i847fOG12209@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 040739 SWODY2 SPC AC 040735 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0235 AM CDT SAT SEP 04 2004 VALID 051200Z - 061200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE GRI 25 WNW OTG 35 NE RWF 25 NE MSP 15 S EAU 35 W JLN 45 NE OKC 30 ESE GAG 25 ENE GRI. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N PBI 25 NNW PIE ...CONT... 30 ENE AQQ 35 SW ABY 30 NNE ABY 70 ESE MCN 15 SSE SAV. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SE YUM 45 SSE PHX SVC GDP 20 W BGS 60 W CSM DDC 50 E LAA 10 S LHX 10 WNW PUB DEN PIR 30 E RRT ...CONT... 45 SSE OSC 10 NNE BMG 15 NW MEM 10 N MCB 35 SSW HUM ...CONT... 35 SE MOB SEM 30 NE ATL 10 SE DAN 10 E ORF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NRN/CENTRAL FL INTO SRN GA... ...UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS... UPPER LOW OVER THE SRN GREAT BASIN IS FORECAST TO OPEN INTO A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND LIFT NEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOMORROW. PREFER THE SLOWER SPEED OF MOVEMENT DEPICTED BY THE ETA/UKMET/NGM/CMC MODELS COMPARED TO FASTER GFS...WHICH APPEARS TO ACCELERATE THE TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TOO RAPIDLY. IN RESPONSE TO THE EJECTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH...SURFACE COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL STATES WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND CENTRAL PLAINS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOW/MID 60S WILL PREVAIL AHEAD OF THE FRONT. GENERALLY MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.5 C/KM ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE FRONTAL ZONE AS COOLER 500 MB TEMPERATURES REMAIN WEST OF THE SURFACE FRONT...LIMITING MLCAPE TO 1000-1500 J/KG. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONT FROM SRN MN SSWWD INTO ERN KS AS DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT INCREASES IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE SWD EXTENT OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...WITH ETAKF MEMBERS OF THE SREF DEVELOPING CONVECTION SWD INTO TX BY 06/00Z. GIVEN THE WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED OVER THE SRN PLAINS IT APPEARS THAT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE MAY BE MORE LIMITED FROM CENTRAL OK SWD. AS THE UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSES EWD STRONGER MID LEVEL WINDS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY CONTRIBUTING TO SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO ENHANCE STORM ORGANIZATION. STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. ...FL INTO SRN GA... FRANCES IS FORECAST TO MOVE NWWD ACROSS CENTRAL FL TOMORROW CONTINUING ACROSS THE EXTREME NERN GULF COAST TOWARD TLH TOMORROW NIGHT ACCORDING TO NHC GUIDANCE. DESPITE WEAKENING OVER LAND...STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS AND ASSOCIATED VERTICAL SHEAR/HELICITY ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE NERN QUADRANT OF THE CIRCULATION. GIVEN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR SMALL SUPERCELLS TO DEVELOP...THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR A FEW TORNADOES TO DEVELOP OVER PART OF NRN AND CENTRAL FL DURING THE DAY...POSSIBLY SPREADING NWD INTO SRN GA AT NIGHT. ..WEISS/MEAD.. 09/04/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Sep 4 17:31:42 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 04 Sep 2004 12:31:42 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200409041733.i84HX0G11715@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 041730 SWODY2 SPC AC 041727 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1227 PM CDT SAT SEP 04 2004 VALID 051200Z - 061200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E AQQ 30 E TLH 30 SSW AYS 20 S SSI. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM OKC 45 NNE CSM 35 SW P28 40 SSW RSL 20 ESE GRI 25 NE FSD 40 N RWF 25 ESE STC 25 W EAU LSE 40 W DBQ 35 SW IRK 20 NNW JLN 30 ENE TUL 50 SSW TUL OKC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE MOB 10 WNW MGM 50 NW AND 10 SE DAN 10 E ORF ...CONT... 25 ESE APN 35 SSE SBN 35 NNW DYR 50 SSW GLH 15 S 7R4 ...CONT... 70 SE YUM 50 SSE PHX 35 NE DMN 15 WNW CNM 35 NNW MAF 50 S CDS 30 NW LTS 40 W GAG 45 ESE TAD PUB 20 NNE FCL 45 W BFF 60 S PHP 35 N 9V9 45 SSE FAR 40 W INL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS FL... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...FL... HURRICANE FRANCES IS EXPECTED TO COME ONSHORE IN CNTRL FL TONIGHT AND MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE PENINSULA SUNDAY. WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL WILL AFFECT MUCH OF FL WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE RISK WITH EMBEDDED CELLS WITHIN THE RAINBANDS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR SUNDAY ACROSS FL SHOW LONG HODOGRAPHS WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR. THIS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR EMBEDDED MINI-SUPERCELLS WITH A TORNADO POTENTIAL. TORNADOES WILL MOST LIKELY BE NEAR AND NORTH OF THE CENTER AND/OR WITH THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM AHEAD OF DRY AIR INTRUSIONS INTO THE HURRICANE'S CIRCULATION. THE TORNADO THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WRN HALF OF THE PENINSULA AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NWWD EVENTUALLY MOVING JUST OFFSHORE IN THE NE GULF OF MEXICO SUNDAY NIGHT. ...GREAT PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST... A WRN US UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE EWD TONIGHT AND SHOULD MOVE INTO THE GREAT PLAINS ON SUNDAY. STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL MOVE INTO ERN CO IN THE MORNING...SUPPORTING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE MTNS MOVING EWD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS BY MIDDAY ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WRN US TROUGH...WILL SLIDE EWD INTO WRN IA...ERN NEB AND CNTRL KS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MID TO UPPER 60S F SFC DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY SHOULD RESULT IN MLCAPE VALUES REACHING 1000 TO 1500 J/KG. STRONG ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL JET AND APPROACHING TROUGH WILL LIKELY TRIGGER WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW WITH GRADUAL TURNING ABOVE 850 MB....RESULTING IN ABOUT 35 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE. THE STRENGTH OF THE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND DEPTH OF THE UNIDIRECTIONAL LOW-LEVEL FLOW SUGGEST THE CONVECTION SHOULD QUICKLY ORGANIZE INTO A LINE WITH AN ISOLATED POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE AND/OR HAIL. THE LINE SHOULD CONTINUE EWD INTO THE INSTABILITY AXIS REACHING SRN MN...CNTRL IA AND ERN KS BY THE LATE EVENING HOURS. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE AIRMASS BECOMES OVERTURNED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL ZONE. ..BROYLES.. 09/04/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Sep 4 18:29:58 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 04 Sep 2004 13:29:58 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200409041831.i84IVFG00824@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 041829 SWODY2 SPC AC 041825 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0125 PM CDT SAT SEP 04 2004 VALID 051200Z - 061200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E AQQ 30 E TLH 30 SSW AYS 20 S SSI. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM OKC 45 NNE CSM 35 SW P28 40 SSW RSL 20 ESE GRI 25 NE FSD 40 N RWF 25 ESE STC 25 W EAU LSE 40 W DBQ 35 SW IRK 20 NNW JLN 30 ENE TUL 50 SSW TUL OKC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE MOB 10 WNW MGM 50 NW AND 10 SE DAN 10 E ORF ...CONT... 25 ESE APN 35 SSE SBN 35 NNW DYR 50 SSW GLH 15 S 7R4 ...CONT... 70 SE YUM 50 SSE PHX 35 NE DMN 15 WNW CNM 35 NNW MAF 50 S CDS 30 NW LTS 40 W GAG 45 ESE TAD PUB 20 NNE FCL 45 W BFF 60 S PHP 35 N 9V9 45 SSE FAR 40 W INL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS FL... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... CORRECTED FOR 5 % LINE ON PROBABILITY GRAPHIC ...FL... HURRICANE FRANCES IS EXPECTED TO COME ONSHORE IN CNTRL FL TONIGHT AND MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE PENINSULA SUNDAY. WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL WILL AFFECT MUCH OF FL WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE RISK WITH EMBEDDED CELLS WITHIN THE RAINBANDS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR SUNDAY ACROSS FL SHOW LONG HODOGRAPHS WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR. THIS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR EMBEDDED MINI-SUPERCELLS WITH A TORNADO POTENTIAL. TORNADOES WILL MOST LIKELY BE NEAR AND NORTH OF THE CENTER AND/OR WITH THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM AHEAD OF DRY AIR INTRUSIONS INTO THE HURRICANE'S CIRCULATION. THE TORNADO THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WRN HALF OF THE PENINSULA AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NWWD EVENTUALLY MOVING JUST OFFSHORE IN THE NE GULF OF MEXICO SUNDAY NIGHT. ...GREAT PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST... A WRN US UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE EWD TONIGHT AND SHOULD MOVE INTO THE GREAT PLAINS ON SUNDAY. STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL MOVE INTO ERN CO IN THE MORNING...SUPPORTING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE MTNS MOVING EWD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS BY MIDDAY ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WRN US TROUGH...WILL SLIDE EWD INTO WRN IA...ERN NEB AND CNTRL KS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MID TO UPPER 60S F SFC DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY SHOULD RESULT IN MLCAPE VALUES REACHING 1000 TO 1500 J/KG. STRONG ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL JET AND APPROACHING TROUGH WILL LIKELY TRIGGER WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW WITH GRADUAL TURNING ABOVE 850 MB....RESULTING IN ABOUT 35 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE. THE STRENGTH OF THE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND DEPTH OF THE UNIDIRECTIONAL LOW-LEVEL FLOW SUGGEST THE CONVECTION SHOULD QUICKLY ORGANIZE INTO A LINE WITH AN ISOLATED POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE AND/OR HAIL. THE LINE SHOULD CONTINUE EWD INTO THE INSTABILITY AXIS REACHING SRN MN...CNTRL IA AND ERN KS BY THE LATE EVENING HOURS. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE AIRMASS BECOMES OVERTURNED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL ZONE. ..BROYLES.. 09/04/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Sep 6 06:36:03 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 06 Sep 2004 01:36:03 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200409060637.i866bNG11808@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 060635 SWODY2 SPC AC 060631 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0131 AM CDT MON SEP 06 2004 VALID 071200Z - 081200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 W COT 30 SSE AUS 20 SSW TXK 40 ESE POF 30 NW DAY 75 E APN ...CONT... 25 ENE MSS 20 NE ALB 20 SSE BOS ...CONT... 35 S TLH 15 NNE CEW 30 SSW SEM 35 NNE TCL 15 NNW MSL 40 NNW TUP 20 NE GLH 35 NNE ESF 30 SSE LCH. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... COOL/DRY SURFACE AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE COUNTRY BETWEEN THE ROCKIES AND APPALACHIANS...AS SURFACE COLD FRONT SHIFTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...REMNANTS OF FRANCES WILL BE LIFTING NNEWD INTO OR JUST WEST OF THE SRN APPALACHIANS DURING THE PERIOD. ...SRN APPALACHIANS INTO THE SRN ATLANTIC... THOUGH FRANCES WILL HAVE WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY BY THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...LARGE AREA OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THIS REGION TUESDAY. THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EXTENSIVE PRECIPITATION/CLOUDS AND LIMITED INSTABILITY DURING THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...STRONG SHEAR PARAMETERS AND PRESENCE OF A VERY WARM AND MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER/LOW LCL HEIGHTS SUGGEST THE THREAT OF A FEW TORNADOES CAN NOT BE DISCOUNTED ATTM EVEN AS FAR EAST AS THE SRN ATLANTIC COAST. WILL OPT TO FORECAST ONLY LOW PROBABILITIES ATTM ...FOCUSING ON AN AREA EAST AND NORTH OF CURRENT OFFICIAL TRACK WHERE SHEAR WILL BE STRONGEST. HOWEVER...UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK MAY BE REQUIRED IN LATER OUTLOOKS OVER PORTIONS OF THIS REGION. ...ERN GREAT LAKES INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND... THOUGH THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD ACCOMPANY SURFACE COLD FRONT AND AREA OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT PRECEDING IT TUESDAY AFTERNOON...OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS LOW ATTM. DESPITE MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR...FORECAST SOUNDINGS YIELD SMALL LAPSE RATES AND ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY. ..EVANS.. 09/06/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Sep 6 17:27:10 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 06 Sep 2004 12:27:10 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200409061728.i86HSSG25526@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 061726 SWODY2 SPC AC 061722 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1222 PM CDT MON SEP 06 2004 VALID 071200Z - 081200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NE CAE 45 W CHS 45 WSW SAV 45 NNE MGR 45 SSW CSG 15 SSW ANB 35 NW RMG 55 E CHA 25 SSW AVL 10 WSW CLT 40 NE CAE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E MSS 30 NNW GFL 30 NE PSF 20 SSE BOS ...CONT... 45 NW LRD 50 SSE AUS 40 SSE GGG PBF PAH 20 NE IND 25 NNW DTW 110 E APN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW GPT 25 W LUL 45 NNE JAN 35 SSE GLH 30 NW HEZ 20 SSE BPT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM EXTREME ERN AL THROUGH CNTRL AND NRN GA AND WRN THROUGH CNTRL SC... ...ERN AL THROUGH GA AND SC... TROPICAL STORM FRANCES CONTINUES MOVING NWWD...BUT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN TO A MORE NLY DIRECTION LATER TODAY INTO TUESDAY. SEE THE LATEST DISCUSSIONS FROM NHC FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION. FRANCES WILL WEAKEN FURTHER AS IT MAKES LANDFALL...BUT CONSIDERABLE LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL PERSIST WITH THE STORM THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE CENTER MOVES NWD ALONG THE GA/AL BORDER. STRONGEST CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST E OF THE CENTER...AND ELY LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES N AND E OF THE CENTER WILL MAINTAIN AN INFLUX OF HIGH THETA-E/LOW LCL AIR INTO ERN AL THROUGH GA AND SC. POTENTIAL FOR DESTABILIZATION WILL EXIST DURING THE DAY...ESPECIALLY WHERE ANY BREAKS IN CLOUDS BETWEEN CONVECTIVE BANDS CAN OCCUR. HOWEVER...POOR LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT MLCAPE TO GENERALLY AOB 1000 J/KG. ISOLATED TORNADOES ASSOCIATED WITH LOW TOPPED SUPERCELLS EMBEDDED WITHIN CONVECTIVE RAINBANDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT...BUT ISOLATED STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS. ..DIAL.. 09/06/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Sep 7 06:31:27 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 07 Sep 2004 01:31:27 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200409070632.i876WhG04871@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 070629 SWODY2 SPC AC 070626 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0126 AM CDT TUE SEP 07 2004 VALID 081200Z - 091200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NW AQQ 45 SW MCN 25 ENE ATL 35 W CHA 50 SW LEX 25 WNW CMH 65 WNW ERI ...CONT... 50 NNW BML 30 WSW BHB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW SUX 25 NNE ANW 65 N PHP 25 WSW BIS 50 SSW GFK 20 SE AXN FRM 20 WNW SUX. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE U.S. WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED BY REMNANTS OF FRANCES AS IT LIFTS NWD ALONG AND JUST WEST OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. ELSEWHERE...LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO INHIBIT MUCH MOIST CONVECTION. AN EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER THE NRN PLAINS WHERE LOW LEVEL WAA MAY SUPPORT A CLUSTER OF ELEVATED CONVECTION...INCLUDING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...EARLY IN THE PERIOD. ...SRN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS EWD TO THE ATLANTIC COAST... GFS HAS BEEN MOST CONSISTENT OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS IN FORECASTING FRANCES IN THE 36-60 HR TIME FRAME...AND IS THE CLOSEST TO THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST BY NHC/HPC. EXPECT LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL REMAIN ENHANCED EAST OF REMNANT CIRCULATION CENTER WHERE GFS MAINTAINS 30-45 KT SLY H85 WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. GIVEN PRESENCE OF ABUNDANT MOISTURE OVER THE CAROLINAS ATTM...EXPECT LOWER TO MID 70F SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL EASILY BE CARRIED NWD INTO THE SRN MID ATLANTIC AS WINDS BACK TO A MORE SLY DIRECTION. THUS...COMBINATION OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND LOW LCL HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES. IF SUFFICIENT CLEARING/HEATING CAN OVERSPREAD THIS MOISTENING WARM SECTOR...AN INCREASE IN TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL OCCUR. WILL FORECAST LOW PROBABILITIES ATTM...THOUGH UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK MAY BE REQUIRED IN LATER OUTLOOKS. ..EVANS.. 09/07/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Sep 7 17:14:40 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 07 Sep 2004 12:14:40 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200409071715.i87HFsG23848@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 071714 SWODY2 SPC AC 071710 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1210 PM CDT TUE SEP 07 2004 VALID 081200Z - 091200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S CRE 30 ENE CLT 20 N LYH 10 WSW ILG 15 SE ACY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW SUX 25 NNE ANW 65 N PHP 25 WSW BIS 50 SSW GFK 20 SE AXN FRM 20 WNW SUX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ESE TLH 35 E MCN 15 NNW AHN 10 NE CHA 55 E BWG 40 ENE SDF 30 N DAY 40 NNE ERI 20 SE ART 25 NE 3B1 20 S HUL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE ERN CAROLINAS TO THE DELMARVA REGION... ...SYNOPSIS... CENTER OF WEAKENING TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRANCES WILL TRACK SLOWLY NNE ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS FROM GA TO WV ON WEDNESDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO PHASE WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE ERN GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY LATE IN THE PERIOD...EVENTUALLY BECOMING ABSORBED BY THE WLYS. ELSEWHERE...ZONAL FLOW WILL EXIST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST...AND A LARGE RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND GREAT BASIN. ...CAROLINAS/MID ATLANTIC... A BELT OF 40-50KT LOW THROUGH MID LEVEL FLOW WILL SPREAD NEWD FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO THE DELMARVA REGION TOMORROW WITHIN THE LARGE ERN SEMICIRCLE OF T.D. FRANCES. STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW OF TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS/VIRGINIA WHILE SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD PERSIST WITHIN CONFLUENCE BANDS ROTATING ENEWD ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS. WHILE OVERALL FLOW FIELD MAY BE A LITTLE WEAKER THAN TODAY GIVEN THE SLOW DEMISE OF FRANCES...FCST WIND PROFILES EXHIBIT STRONG DIRECTIONAL AND MODEST SPEED SHEAR IN THE LOWEST 1-2KM. ADDITIONALLY...STEADY SUPPLY OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER RH AND A LOW LCL ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL FURTHER ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL STORM ROTATION TO REACH THE SURFACE. THUS...ISOLD TO WIDELY SCATTERED TORNADOES EMBEDDED WITHIN RAIN/TSTM BANDS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM NERN SC TO THE DELMARVA AREA FROM EARLY IN THE DAY THROUGH EVENING. ..CARBIN.. 09/07/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 8 06:31:09 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 08 Sep 2004 01:31:09 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200409080632.i886WLG20263@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 080630 SWODY2 SPC AC 080626 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0126 AM CDT WED SEP 08 2004 VALID 091200Z - 101200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W CTY AYS 15 SW CAE 35 SSW ROA 25 NE CRW 25 NNE ERI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE INL 45 S FAR 30 SE MBG 35 ESE REJ 55 ESE MLS 35 NNW BIL 35 SE MQM 30 NE BOI 35 N 63S. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW CAG 45 E DRO 15 SE FLG 35 W BLH 10 N EDW 30 NNW BIH 35 WNW ELY 50 N PUC 25 WSW CAG. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... NRN STREAM WILL REMAIN ACTIVE OVER THE NRN U.S. WITH STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSING QUICKLY EWD ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES DURING THE PERIOD...WHILE REMNANTS OF FRANCES PHASES WITH NRN STREAM AND LIFTS NEWD INTO QUEBEC BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. IN ADDITION...WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD ROTATE AROUND SRN ROCKIES ANTICYCLONE AND SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE SRN GREAT BASIN/CENTRAL ROCKIES DURING THE DAY. ...NORTHEAST... THOUGH ETA AND GFS ARE IN SLIGHT DISAGREEMENT WITH SURFACE LOW PLACEMENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BOTH MAINTAIN STRONG SLY LOW LEVEL WINDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND EAST OF THE LOW TRACK. THIS WILL SUPPORT A VERY MOIST WARM SECTOR WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. DESPITE INCREASING SURFACE DEW POINTS...DESTABILIZATION WILL BE MODEST AT BEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITHIN WEAK LAPSE RATES AND LIMITED DIURNAL HEATING WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING MLCAPES BELOW 500 J/KG. HOWEVER... PRESENCE OF STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR /I.E. 30+ KT OF O-1 KM SHEAR/ WITHIN WARM SECTOR CONTAINING VERY HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER RH AND LOW LCLS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS CAN NOT BE DISCOUNTED DESPITE GENERAL WEAKENING OF FRANCES. WILL KEEP LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES FORECAST FOR NOW...THOUGH SLIGHT RISK MAY BE REQUIRED IN LATER OUTLOOKS. ...NRN PLAINS... SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED WEAK TROUGH/COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO ND THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES. DESPITE THE INCREASE IN LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SCARCE. SHOULD SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE OCCUR AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM...SHEAR AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH PRIMARY THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. GIVEN DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY...WILL OPT TO ONLY FORECAST LOW PROBABILITIES ATTM. ..EVANS.. 09/08/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 8 17:31:55 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 08 Sep 2004 12:31:55 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200409081733.i88HX6G23772@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 081730 SWODY2 SPC AC 081726 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1226 PM CDT WED SEP 08 2004 VALID 091200Z - 101200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W AQQ 45 NNW AYS 45 WSW SOP 20 SSE LYH 30 WNW AOO 30 N JHW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE DRO 55 ENE SOW 10 N PHX YUM 25 NNW RAL 50 NW NID 35 NNE TPH 45 NNE GJT 40 ENE DRO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W IWD 20 N MKT 20 NNE 9V9 40 NE 81V 50 ESE BIL 55 NNE SUN 35 N BOI 10 ENE PDT 35 NNE 63S. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...NERN U.S... REMNANT OF FRANCES WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY EXTRA-TROPICAL AS IT MOVES NNEWD INTO THE NERN U.S. BY EARLY THURSDAY. STRONG KINEMATIC AND SHEAR PROFILES WILL PERSIST E OF THE CENTER WHICH IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR LAKE ONTARIO BY MID-DAY TOMORROW. STRONGEST LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL REMAIN IN VICINITY OF WARM FRONT AS IT LIFTS NWD DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER...STRONG SHEAR /0-1 KM 30 KT/ WILL ALSO BE PRESENT IN THE WARM SECTOR. SEVERAL BANDS OF LOW TOPPED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE IN PROGRESS AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD OVER THE NERN U.S. AND NEW ENGLAND...AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE SPREADING NWD WITH TIME. POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WIND ASSOCIATED WITH LOW TOPPED SUPERCELLS AND NEWD MOVING BOWING SEGMENTS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE BANDS WILL EXIST IF SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION CAN OCCUR. HOWEVER...PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR IS EXPECTED TO BE MARGINAL INSTABILITY. UNLIKE TUESDAY...LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES WILL BE FROM COOLER WATERS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC AND NE U.S. COAST. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD CLOUDS SUGGEST INSTABILITY MAY REMAIN AOB 500 J/KG. AN UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK MAY BE NEEDED IN DAY 1 OUTLOOKS IF IT BECOMES APPARENT MORE INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. ...ERN MT AND ND... SURFACE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN WLY FLOW REGIME WILL ADVANCE EWD THROUGH ERN MT AND ND DURING THE AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LIMITED AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS AROUND 50 EXPECTED. PLUME OF WARM AIR IN THE 2-4 KM LAYER WILL ADVECT EWD OVER THE MEAGER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...RESULTING IN A FAIRLY STRONG CAP MUCH OF THE DAY. HOWEVER...SURFACE HEATING AND MIXING...AS WELL AS POTENTIAL FOR SOME MID LEVEL ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK IMPULSES ADVANCING EWD MAY WEAKEN CAP AND PROVIDE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR ISOLATED STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. SURFACE-6 KM SHEAR OF 35 TO 40 KT WITHIN THE STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT THREAT OF SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE. LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...MID LEVEL ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF MID LEVEL CONVECTION OVER PARTS OF ERN MT INTO ND. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO MN WITHIN STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME. GIVEN EXPECTED LIMITED INSTABILITY AND UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING STORM COVERAGE AND INITIATION...WILL KEEP ONLY LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME. ..DIAL.. 09/08/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Sep 10 07:18:23 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 10 Sep 2004 02:18:23 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200409100719.i8A7JkO28377@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 100717 SWODY2 SPC AC 100713 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0213 AM CDT FRI SEP 10 2004 VALID 111200Z - 121200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ESE GPT MEI RMG RDU 15 NNE HSE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 E TOL FWA BRL DSM MCW AUW 15 NNE MQT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW INL FAR JMS MOT 60 NNW MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NNW DEN TAD ROW ALM SAD PRC TRM PMD BIH U31 BPI RWL 10 NNW DEN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW HVR 3DU 4LW MFR 30 SSE EUG DLS EAT 45 NE 4OM. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...GREAT LAKES REGION... BAND OF FAST WESTERLIES WILL LIE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN UNITED STATES ON SATURDAY...WITH STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ETA/GFS SOLUTIONS AGREE ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF RATHER STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES DURING THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT OVER PARTS OF WI/MI. RELATIVELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL COMPENSATE FOR LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE....RESULTING IN MLCAPE VALUES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG IN THIS REGION. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS UPPER MI AND NORTHERN WI...WITH A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS IN STRONGER CELLS. MAIN UPPER DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER...LIKELY LIMITING AREAL COVERAGE OF SEVERE THREAT. THUS HAVE ONLY OUTLOOKED LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY OVER PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINOUS WEST...SOUTHEAST STATES...AND LATE SATURDAY NIGHT OVER PARTS OF ND/MN. NO ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE FORECAST IN THESE REGIONS ON DAY2. ..HART.. 09/10/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Sep 10 17:32:08 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 10 Sep 2004 12:32:08 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200409101733.i8AHXTO08277@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 101731 SWODY2 SPC AC 101727 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1227 PM CDT FRI SEP 10 2004 VALID 111200Z - 121200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ESE GPT MEI RMG RDU 15 NNE HSE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ENE MTC 30 S SBN BRL DSM 15 SW MCW AUW 115 NNW ANJ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW INL FAR JMS MOT 60 NNW MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NNW DEN TAD ROW ALM SAD PRC TRM PMD BIH U31 BPI RWL 10 NNW DEN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW HVR 3DU 4LW MFR 30 SSE EUG DLS EAT 45 NE 4OM. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... A PERTURBED AND PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NRN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY THIS WEEKEND. STRONG UPPER WAVE NOW OVER THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL TRANSLATE INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT AS A NEW SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS SEWD TOWARD THE PAC NW. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST WAVE WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VLY TONIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL REACH NRN LOWER MI-CNTRL WI-NEB LINE BY 00Z SUNDAY AND BE THE FOCUS FOR POSSIBLE TSTMS. ...NRN GREAT LAKES REGION... AS THE UPPER IMPULSE APPROACHES THE NRN GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON...LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR INCREASING CONVECTION. BELT OF 50-60 KTS H5 FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO 0-6KM SHEAR OF 45-50 KTS...SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS. MLCAPES APPROACH 1000-1500 J/KG...AS A PLUME OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ADVECT ATOP UPPER 50S DEW POINTS. STRONGEST H5 HEIGHT FALLS...HOWEVER...ARE LIKELY TO PASS NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. 09Z SREF SUGGESTS THAT ISOLD TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT...WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FROM NWRN ONTARIO INTO ERN UPPER MI SATURDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THAT STRONGEST SUPPORT WILL LIKELY BE COINCIDENT WITH WEAKER INSTABILITY...ONLY ISOLD RISKS OF DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL WILL EXIST OVER THESE AREAS. FARTHER SW ACROSS CNTRL WI...GIVEN WEAKER LARGE SCALE SUPPORT/CONVERGENCE...STRONG HEATING WILL BE NEEDED TO INITIATE TSTMS...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS NOT HIGH. ..RACY.. 09/10/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Sep 11 07:18:04 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 11 Sep 2004 02:18:04 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200409110719.i8B7JOO06716@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 110717 SWODY2 SPC AC 110713 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0213 AM CDT SAT SEP 11 2004 VALID 121200Z - 131200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSW TUS EED P38 EKO WMC 4LW RDM 45 S EPH 85 NW FCA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 NE DVL ABR DGW FCL COS RTN 4CR CNM SJT HDO 15 SSE LRD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE HUL ALB BFD CLE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE BPT SHV LIT BNA HKY 10 NE ILM. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...MT/ND... A STRONG TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON SUNDAY...PROMOTING SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER EASTERN MT/WESTERN DAKOTAS AND A STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ETA/GFS GUIDANCE AGREE THAT STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES AND SUBSTANTIAL UPPER FORCING WILL SPREAD INTO MT/ND BY EVENING. HOWEVER...LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP CAPE VALUES BELOW 1000 J/KG. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AND NEAR SURFACE LOW SUNDAY NIGHT. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A FEW STORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS OVER THIS REGION. HOWEVER...ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS APPEAR UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. ...FL... HURRICANE IVAN IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS WESTERN CUBA SUNDAY NIGHT. OUTER RAIN BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH SYSTEM MAY AFFECT FAR SOUTH FL AND THE KEYS OVERNIGHT...WITH A LOW RISK OF ISOLATED TORNADOES. ..HART.. 09/11/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Sep 11 17:17:22 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 11 Sep 2004 12:17:22 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200409111718.i8BHIeO07979@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 111716 SWODY2 SPC AC 111712 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1212 PM CDT SAT SEP 11 2004 VALID 121200Z - 131200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 N GFK 25 NE Y22 40 WSW RAP 15 WSW DEN 40 SSE SAF 20 NNE TCS 55 WNW SAD 30 NW BLH 30 E DRA 30 WSW U24 45 WSW MLD 30 NW WMC 50 N LMT 45 NE RDM 55 ESE EPH 40 NNE FCA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE HUL 35 W AUG 15 SSW SYR 20 WNW JHW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE GLS 30 SSE TXK 35 SW ARG 35 SSW SDF 30 N SSU 15 S CHO 25 SSE DAN 15 SSE CLT 45 N CAE 35 ENE FLO 20 SE EWN. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NRN-TIER OF THE COUNTRY ON SUNDAY. NEXT IN A SERIES OF STRONG JET STREAKS CURRENTLY OFF THE PAC NW COAST...WILL DIG SEWD INTO THE NRN ROCKIES BY EARLY MONDAY. BOTH THE GFS/ETA HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND DEEPER WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER THE PAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS...WITH THE GFS THE FASTEST. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK LOW WILL REMAIN OVER SD...SITUATED ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE NRN ROCKIES. ERN PORTION OF THIS FRONT WILL REDEVELOP NWD AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY INTO ONTARIO WHILE A NEW FRONT DROPS SEWD INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS BY SUNDAY EVENING. THE OFFICIAL TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER FORECAST HAS THE CENTER OF HRCN IVAN MOVING TO THE WRN TIP OF CUBA BY 12Z MONDAY...VERY LATE IN THE DAY 2 PERIOD. ...SWRN FL... SPIRAL RAIN BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH HRCN IVAN MAY BRUSH THE SWRN COAST OF FL VERY LATE IN THE DAY 2 PERIOD...09-12Z MONDAY. INCREASING LOW LEVEL SHEAR WITH THE APPROACH OF IVAN WILL LIKELY GIVE RISE TO ISOLD TORNADO/WATERSPOUT RISKS IN SWRN FL INCLUDING THE KEYS. MAIN IMPACT WILL OCCUR BEYOND THE DAY 2 PERIOD...HOWEVER. ...NRN HIGH PLAINS... GIVEN THE TRENDS OF A SLIGHTLY SLOWER MOVEMENT AND DEEPER CHARACTER OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PAST FEW ETA/GFS MODEL RUNS AND MINIMAL INSTABILITY NOTED ON THE 09Z SREF...PROSPECTS FOR SEVERE WEATHER APPEAR MINIMAL OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. 12Z GFS IS THE OUTLIER AS IT SUGGESTS A FASTER MOVEMENT OVER THE ETA/ETAKF. BEST CASE SCENARIO WILL BE FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD OVER THE NRN ROCKIES THAT MAY SPREAD DOWNSTREAM INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS BY 12Z MONDAY. EVEN THEN...MUCAPE APPEARS TO BE LESS THAN 500 J/KG AND RISKS OF HAIL/HIGH WINDS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE SUB-5 PERCENT PROBABILITY RANGE. ..RACY.. 09/11/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Sep 12 07:09:57 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 12 Sep 2004 02:09:57 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200409120711.i8C7BDO25113@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 120709 SWODY2 SPC AC 120705 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0205 AM CDT SUN SEP 12 2004 VALID 131200Z - 141200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ESE INL MSP 30 SSE SUX GRI 60 E ANW ATY 60 W RRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW HUM 35 NNW GPT 60 NW CEW BHM BNA 10 NE LEX JKL TYS AND CAE 20 SSE EWN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SW TUS GUP DRO RKS BPI IDA RDM 35 S AST ...CONT... 10 W IWD LSE CNK AMA HOB P07. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NORTHEAST NEB INTO WESTERN MN... ...NORTHERN PLAINS... UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ON MONDAY FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A DEEP SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS MONDAY MORNING...MOVING NORTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN ONTARIO BY EVENING. TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP INTO WESTERN MN/NORTHWEST IA/CENTRAL NEB...PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS /40-50 KNOTS AT 850MB/ AHEAD OF FRONT WILL MAINTAIN DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW/MID 60S IN THIS REGION. STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LEAD TO AN AXIS OF MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG FROM SOUTHERN NEB INTO WESTERN MN. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ALONG THIS ZONE WILL ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION AND POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY FROM EASTERN SD INTO WESTERN MN. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE INITIAL THREAT...WITH A POTENTIAL EVOLUTION INTO A SQUALL LINE MONDAY EVENING WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS. ..HART.. 09/12/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Sep 12 17:14:09 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 12 Sep 2004 12:14:09 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200409121715.i8CHFOO17319@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 121713 SWODY2 SPC AC 121709 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1209 PM CDT SUN SEP 12 2004 VALID 131200Z - 141200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 N ELO 35 SE MSP 30 ENE OMA 10 S EAR 60 E ANW ATY 20 WNW RRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 E ELO 10 WNW VOK 15 E LWD 30 NNW GAG 30 N ROW 35 SE DMN ...CONT... 40 WSW FHU 35 W SVC 15 WSW ABQ 50 ENE DRO 20 SSE GJT 15 S BYI 65 ESE BNO RDM 35 S AST. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WNW PSX 15 W LCH 50 NNW PNS 15 NNE 0A8 10 WNW TUP 35 SSW HUF 35 W LUK 45 E CRW 15 E BLF 20 WSW GSP CAE 20 SSE EWN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS AND THE UPPER MS VLY... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER TROUGH ENTERING THE PAC NW TODAY WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE EWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS ON MONDAY. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW...LOCATED OVER NCNTRL SD EARLY MONDAY MORNING...WILL MOVE NEWD INTO NWRN ONTARIO BY MONDAY NIGHT. TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL STRENGTHEN AND SWEEP SEWD INTO NWRN WI-IA-KS BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE TSTMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. ...ERN PLAINS INTO UPPER MS VLY... INCREASING SLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL MAINTAIN 60S DEW POINTS ACROSS THE ERN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VLY MONDAY AFTERNOON BENEATH STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY DURING PEAK HEATING. CINH IS APT TO REMAIN RATHER STRONG IN THE WARM SECTOR. BUT...AS STRONGER H5 HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH ACCELERATE EWD...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG/BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS CINH IS ERASED. VERTICAL SHEAR IN THE LOWEST 6 KM WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. HOWEVER...GIVEN 2-6KM SHEAR VECTORS ORIENTED NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE INITIATING BOUNDARY AND THE MAGNITUDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING... RAPID EVOLUTION INTO LINE SEGMENTS WILL BE LIKELY. RISKS OF DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGER STORMS... ESPECIALLY FROM EXTREME NERN NEB INTO WRN MN LATE IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EWD INTO THE UPPER MS VLY LATE MONDAY NIGHT. TSTMS MAY BECOME MORE ELEVATED WITH TIME...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SRN END OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS NEB AND IA WHERE 50 KT SLY LLJ BLOWS NORMAL TO THE FRONT. THUS...WHILE ACTIVITY MOVING EWD INTO THE UPPER MS VLY LIKELY WEAKENS WITH TIME OWING TO DIURNAL COOLING...ISOLD LARGE HAIL MAY CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT MOST OF THE NIGHT FARTHER SW WHERE MUCAPES WILL REMAIN AROUND 1200 J/KG. ..RACY.. 09/12/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Sep 13 07:20:55 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 13 Sep 2004 02:20:55 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200409130722.i8D7M7O16936@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 130719 SWODY2 SPC AC 130715 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0215 AM CDT MON SEP 13 2004 VALID 141200Z - 151200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM LWD CNK EAR YKN 10 WSW EAU VOK LNR LWD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S LRD CLL CBM HSV SDF JXN GRR 35 S MKE UIN OJC GCK 40 NE LAA DEN LAR 50 ESE DGW 60 NE DGW WRL JAC 60 SSW 27U S80 30 NE 63S. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 N OLF DIK 50 NE MBG FAR 20 W INL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNW JHW DUJ EKN TRI 10 NW SPA 10 SE SOP 25 ESE ECG. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM EASTERN NEB ACROSS IA INTO WESTERN WI... ...MIDWEST STATES... BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL ROTATE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY ON TUESDAY...WITH MAIN SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING FROM UPPER MI/WI INTO WESTERN KS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE REINFORCED OVER MN/IA BY OUTFLOW FROM OVERNIGHT DAY1 CONVECTION. STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE PRESENT AHEAD OF FRONT FROM EASTERN KS INTO SOUTHERN WI. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000 J/KG. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES TO SUPPORT A RISK OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS...AND PERHAPS SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL SHEAR FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES. STORMS ARE LIKELY TO ORGANIZE INTO AN MCS AND SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD ALONG BOUNDARY INTO WESTERN WI DURING THE EVENING. ...WESTERN KS/NEB/SD... ETA/GFS SOLUTIONS ARE SIMILAR IN SHOWING THE MAIN SURFACE FRONT FROM EASTERN NEB INTO WESTERN KS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF NEB/SD. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AN AXIS OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR OVER THIS REGION...WHERE STRONG DAYTIME HEATING IS EXPECTED. STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT...AND APPROACH OF MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHOULD HELP IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON OVER EASTERN WY/NORTHEAST CO. THESE STORMS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD ALONG THE THETA-E AXIS...WITH A RISK OF ISOLATED HAIL OR GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS IN STRONGER CELLS. WILL ONLY OUTLOOK LOW PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME DUE TO WEAK FORECAST INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...THIS AREA MAY REQUIRE AN UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK IN LATER UPDATES IF GREATER INSTABILITY APPEARS MORE LIKELY. ..HART.. 09/13/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Sep 13 17:35:30 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 13 Sep 2004 12:35:30 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200409131736.i8DHaeO21104@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 131733 SWODY2 SPC AC 131729 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1229 PM CDT MON SEP 13 2004 VALID 141200Z - 151200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM OFK MKT EAU VOK LNR LWD FNB BIE 30 WSW OLU OFK. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MHN LBF MCK 45 NNW GLD AKO 35 E FCL 35 WSW BFF CDR 50 NW MHN MHN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE APN MKE RFD MLI IRK MKC 40 S RSL 45 NNE LAA LIC DEN FCL CYS 45 NNW BFF 60 WNW CDR WRL JAC 80 WSW 27U LWS GEG 50 N 63S ...CONT... 65 NNE ISN P24 BIS ABR ATY AXN HIB 45 N ELO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SW HUM HUM MSY 65 SSW SEM TOI AUO 35 NW RMG CSV 45 NW TRI DAN 30 NE ECG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE DRT TPL 60 SW TYR LFK BPT 30 E GLS. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ERN NEB TO WRN WI... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN ALOFT WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY BROAD BELT OF CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND W-CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH. ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM CURRENT POSITION OVER ERN WA/ID THROUGH BASE OF MEAN TROUGH EARLY IN PERIOD...THEN DEAMPLIFYING AND EJECTING NEWD ACROSS NRN PLAINS AS UPSTREAM PERTURBATION DIGS SEWD TOWARD WY. MEANWHILE...UPPER LOW PRESENTLY INDICATED ON MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER TN VALLEY REGION IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NEWD ALONG WRN EDGE OF APPALACHIANS INTO WRN NY DAY-2. AT SFC -- DIFFUSE ASSORTMENT OF BOUNDARIES NOW ANALYZED ACROSS NRN PLAINS MASKS A SYNOPTIC FRONTAL ZONE THAT SHOULD SHARPEN IN DEFINITION WITH TIME...EXTENDING FROM SERN MN ACROSS SERN NEB THEN WWD INTO NERN CO BY 15/00Z. DRYLINE SHOULD EXTEND SWD FROM ERN CO ACROSS WRN TX PANHANDLE TO LOWER PECOS VALLEY REGION...REMAINING CAPPED. MEANWHILE IVAN -- CURRENTLY CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE OVER NW CARIBBEAN -- IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE FACTOR IN GULF COAST TORNADO POTENTIAL UNTIL AT LEAST EARLY DAY 3 BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE FROM NHC REGARDING WIND DISTRIBUTION AND FCST TRACK. ...ERN NE ACROSS UPPER MS VALLEY... SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE AFTERNOON INVOF SFC FRONTAL ZONE FROM ERN NEB NEWD ACROSS WRN WI. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE AND A FEW TORNADOES MAY ALSO OCCUR. AMBIENT SFC DEW POINTS UPPER 50S/LOW 60S F ARE EXPECTED AT BEGINNING OF PERIOD...HOWEVER DIURNAL EVAPOTRANSPIRATIVE PROCESSES SHOULD BOOST SFC DEW POINTS INTO MID-UPPER 60S ONCE AGAIN OVER SOME PORTIONS MO VALLEY EWD ACROSS IA...IN SHALLOW NEAR-SFC LAYER. THIS PLUS DIURNAL HEATING WILL BOOST MLCAPES TO 2000-2500 J/KG RANGE MID-LATE AFTERNOON...WEAKENING CAP IN FRONTAL/CONVERGENCE ZONE. LARGE/LOOPING LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND 35-45 KT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR INDICATE SUPERCELL POTENTIAL...HOWEVER...WITH MIDLEVEL AND MEAN FLOW VECTORS ORIENTED NEARLY PARALLEL TO FORCING BOUNDARY...STORMS MAY LINE OUT RATHER QUICKLY. INCREASINGLY MOIST/50-60 KT SWLY LLJ MAY SUPPORT MCS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PORTIONS IA/WI AFTER DARK. ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER WRN PORTIONS OUTLOOK AREA MID-LATE AFTERNOON WITH LARGE HAIL MAIN THREAT AND DAMAGING WIND ALSO POSSIBLE. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST INTO LATE EVENING ACROSS WRN NEB...PRODUCING HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS. ELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW COMPONENT SHOULD DEVELOP BEHIND SFC FRONT ACROSS THIS AREA...ADVECTING MOISTURE UPSLOPE AND COMBINING WITH INSOLATION TO DESTABILIZE AIR MASS FAVORABLY BY LATE AFTERNOON. VERTICAL SHEAR IS FCST TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT DAY ACROSS PORTIONS WRN NEB...NERN CO AND PERHAPS EXTREME SERN WY AS UPPER TROUGH APCHS...BECOMING SUITABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH 0-6 KM AGL SHEARS 50-70 KT PROGGED NEB PANHANDLE/NERN CO. 8-9 DEG C MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SFC DEW POINTS LOW-MID 50S F WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE 500-1000 J/KG. ..EDWARDS.. 09/13/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Sep 14 07:21:17 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 14 Sep 2004 02:21:17 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200409140722.i8E7MQO27151@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 140720 SWODY2 SPC AC 140716 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0216 AM CDT TUE SEP 14 2004 VALID 151200Z - 161200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SW HUM MCB TCL AUO ABY 30 SE TLH. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM APN 10 NE GRR 35 S MKE LNR RHI 30 SE CMX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE LCH GLH LIT MLC END SLN OMA FSD BRD 30 NNW ELO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E TOL 10 SSW MIE SDF JKL HKY GSO SHD 10 SSW AOO ELM MSV 25 NE NEL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF WI/MI... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES... ...WESTERN GREAT LAKES... STRONG UPPER TROUGH NOW DIGGING INTO THE NORTHWEST UNITED STATES WILL TRACK RAPIDLY ACROSS THE ROCKIES ON TUESDAY...AND INTO THE PLAINS STATES ON WEDNESDAY. ETA/GFS GUIDANCE SHOW A RATHER DEEP SURFACE LOW TRACKING FROM IA INTO LAKE SUPERIOR DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EASTWARD INTO PARTS OF WI/MI DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. STRONG DAYTIME HEATING IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL NOT BE VERY STEEP. AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES SHOULD BE AROUND 1000 J/KG. STRONG UPPER FORCING AND CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT APPEAR LIKELY TO ORGANIZE A FAST MOVING SQUALL LINE OVER EASTERN WI/WESTERN MI. DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED/SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE COLD FRONT FROM SOUTHERN WI INTO MO...UPPER FORCING WILL BE WEAKER. NEVERTHELESS...MLCAPE VALUES OVER 1000 J/KG MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS. ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED IN THIS REGION. ...CENTRAL GULF COAST... HURRICANE IVAN IS FORECAST TO MOVE ASHORE NEAR MOB WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE SIZE AND STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM...FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY EXTEND INLAND INTO CENTRAL AL OVERNIGHT. ..HART.. 09/14/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Sep 14 17:37:00 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 14 Sep 2004 12:37:00 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200409141738.i8EHc7d26686@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 141735 SWODY2 SPC AC 141731 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1231 PM CDT TUE SEP 14 2004 VALID 151200Z - 161200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSE MOB MOB 45 SE MEI TOI 25 ENE MAI 25 S TLH. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM OSC MBS LAN LAF DNV CMI DEC UIN 25 ESE OTM CID MQT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SW HUM HEZ 60 NE PBF JBR CGI MDH 20 SE BLV 60 ESE VIH UNO 45 NW TXK ACT DRT 40 ESE P07 35 E FST MAF P28 HUT 85 N CMX ...CONT... 35 ENE TOL FDY SDF BWG BNA 55 NNE HSV CHA TRI BKW ELM BGM 30 SW MSV DOV WAL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS MI/IL AND ERN IA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS FL PANHANDLE AND SRN AL... ...SYNOPSIS... IN MID/UPPER LEVELS...NRN STREAM PATTERN IS FCST TO DEAMPLIFY THROUGHOUT PERIOD...EVOLVING TOWARD REGIME OF ZONAL TO WEAKLY CYCLONIC FLOW FROM PACIFIC NW TO GREAT LAKES. SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER NRN ROCKIES -- IS EXPECTED TO DIG ESEWD ACROSS NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS DAY-1...THEN EJECT NEWD ACROSS UPPER MS VALLEY AND LS/UPPER MI DAY-2. BY BEGINNING OF PERIOD THIS WILL RESULT IN CYCLOGENESIS INVOF WRN IA -- ALONG NE-SW ORIENTED FRONTAL ZONE. COLD FRONT THEN SHOULD SWEEP SEWD ACROSS SRN HIGH PLAINS AND MUCH OF MO/OK...WHILE MOVING EWD OVER MOST OF MI. ...GREAT LAKES... SCATTERED TSTMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING AFTERNOON INVOF FRONTAL ZONE MOVING EWD ACROSS AREA...WITH DAMAGING WIND MAIN THREAT...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE. KINEMATIC FIELDS AND FRONTAL FORCING FAVOR DEVELOPMENT OF SQUALL LINE WITH LEWP/BOW DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE. PRIMARY UNCERTAINTIES INVOLVE POTENTIAL EFFECTS OF MCS WHICH MAY BE ONGOING AT BEGINNING OF PERIOD OVER PORTIONS UPPER MS VALLEY REGION...MOVING NEWD TOWARD LS AND/OR NRN LM AREA. THIS COULD STABILIZE PORTIONS OF WI BUT ALSO PRODUCE BOUNDARIES ACTING AS FOCI FOR LATER ACTIVITY. SFC DEW POINTS MID 50S TO MID 60S F SHOULD OFFSET WEAK MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES TO YIELD MLCAPES 1000-1500 J/KG BY MIDAFTERNOON...IN ENVIRONMENT OF NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP-LAYER FLOWS AND AROUND 20-35 KT 0-6 KM SHEARS. ALTHOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND TOTAL BUOYANCY SHOULD GENERALLY INCREASE WITH SWWD EXTENT AHEAD OF FRONTAL ZONE...ORGANIZED SEVERE PROBABILITIES LESSEN BECAUSE OF WEAKENING OF BOTH DEEP-LAYER WIND/SHEAR FIELDS AND OF LARGE SCALE FORCING. ...E-CENTRAL GULF COASTAL PLAIN... NEAR END OF PERIOD...CENTER OF HURRICANE IVAN MAY STRIKE GULF COAST INVOF MS/AL BORDER...HOWEVER ITS OUTER BANDS AND WIND FIELDS WILL AFFECT BROAD ADJOINING AREA OF COAST FOR MUCH OF LATTER HALF OF PERIOD...BASED ON LATEST NHC TRACK/WIND FIELD FCSTS. GREATEST TORNADO PROBABILITIES WILL BE IN RIGHT-FRONT/NERN QUADRANT OF NWD-MOVING MATURE HURRICANE -- WHICH IS DOWNSHEAR WITH RESPECT TO DEEP-TROPOSPHERIC WINDS COMPARED TO NHC PROJECTED SYSTEM TRACK. WITHIN THAT SECTOR...MESOSCALE INFLUENCES -- I.E. SUBTLE POCKETS OF DIFFERENTIAL DIURNAL HEATING LEADING TO WEAK BAROCLINIC BOUNDARIES NEAR SYSTEM PERIPHERY -- COULD BE IMPORTANT FACTOR IN CONCENTRATING TORNADO POTENTIAL...BUT IT IS TOO SOON TO BE MORE PRECISE THEN PRESENT PROBABILITIES. ..EDWARDS.. 09/14/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 15 07:29:11 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 15 Sep 2004 02:29:11 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200409150730.i8F7UGd01644@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 150727 SWODY2 SPC AC 150722 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0222 AM CDT WED SEP 15 2004 VALID 161200Z - 171200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE GPT LUL 10 NW HSV CHA AHN MCN 10 N AQQ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM RWL FCL TAD CVS ROW ONM GNT FMN U17 U24 SLC RKS RWL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE CMX 25 N EAU 25 WSW STC 25 N JMS 70 NE MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SW GLS LFK TXK UNO DNV JXN 60 SE OSC ...CONT... EFK EEN JFK. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE GULF COAST REGION... ...MS/AL/GA... ACCORDING TO LATEST NHC GUIDANCE...HURRICANE IVAN WILL MAKE LANDFALL THURSDAY MORNING NEAR MOB. THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN TRACK SLOWLY NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL AL. VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS AROUND THE SYSTEM...COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WELL NORTH AND EAST OF EYE...WILL PROMOTE A RISK OF ISOLATED TROPICAL TORNADOES ACROSS PARTS OF EXTREME EASTERN MS...MUCH OF AL...AND WESTERN GA ON THURSDAY. ...OH/PA/NY... STRONG...FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO QUEBEC ON DAY2. THE MAIN SURFACE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SWEEP ACROSS OH AND INTO WESTERN NY/PA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ETA/GFS SOLUTIONS BOTH SUGGEST A THREAT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS IN THIS REGION...IF SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY COULD DEVELOP. HOWEVER...MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES GENERALLY BELOW 1000 J/KG. WILL OUTLOOK ONLY LOW PROBABILITIES FOR THIS REGION AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL MONITOR IN LATER OUTLOOKS FOR THE POTENTIAL OF STRONGER DESTABILIZATION. ..HART.. 09/15/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 15 17:22:28 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 15 Sep 2004 12:22:28 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200409151723.i8FHNVd06957@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 151720 SWODY2 SPC AC 151716 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1216 PM CDT WED SEP 15 2004 VALID 161200Z - 171200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW PNS 45 NNE MOB 30 ENE MEI 40 N TCL HSV CHA AHN MCN 20 SE AQQ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM FCL DEN COS PUB TAD TCC 50 SW CVS ROW ALM TCS GNT CEZ GJT CAG FCL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ENE CMX 30 NW RHI 50 ENE MSP AXN JMS 90 NE MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S BVE BTR HEZ GLH MEM 30 E JBR UNO TBN 40 NE COU 55 SE OSC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM EFK LEB BAF BDR JFK NEL DOV BWI EKN CRW 30 E 5I3 35 SW PSK 30 ESE ECG. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS AL...GA...FL PANHANDLE... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER AIR PATTERN OVER CONUS IS DOMINATED BY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER MID MO VALLEY REGION -- AND BY HURRICANE IVAN IN N-CENTRAL GULF. UPPER MIDWEST TROUGH SHOULD LIFT NEWD ACROSS NRN ONT AND AWAY FROM GREAT LAKES REGION DURING FCST PERIOD...AS NRN STREAM FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL IN ITS WAKE FROM PACIFIC NW TO GREAT LAKES. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW IS ANALYZED OVER SRN MN ATTM...AND ALSO WILL EJECT NEWD OVER ONT...BECOMING OCCLUDED AND VERTICALLY STACKED WITH UPPER SYSTEM. MEANWHILE SFC COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE EWD ACROSS GREAT LAKES REGION...LOSING DEFINITION AS UPPER SUPPORT EJECTS AWAY AND AS LOW LEVEL FLOW WEAKENS ON BOTH SIDES. FRONTOLYSIS ALSO EXPECTED FARTHER S AS LOW LEVEL FLOW RESPONDS TO INLAND PENETRATION OF IVAN. ...SERN CONUS... EYE OF IVAN IS FCST TO STRIKE INVOF MOB BAY NEAR OR SHORTLY BEFORE BEGINNING OF PERIOD BASED ON LATEST TRACK GUIDANCE FROM NHC. THIS SYSTEM IS ALSO FCST TO REMAIN CHARACTERIZED BY A LARGE WIND ENVELOPE. AS SUCH EXPECT LOW LEVEL KINEMATIC PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR MINI-SUPERCELLS TO SPREAD A CONSIDERABLE DISTANCE FROM CENTER OVER FAVORED SECTOR -- WHICH IN THIS CASE WOULD BE NERN SEMICIRCLE GIVEN SYSTEM-RELATIVE AMBIENT SHEARS. EVEN AS SFC CIRCULATION BEGINS TO WEAKEN...LOW-MIDLEVEL WINDS ABOVE SFC WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY INTENSE -- MAINTAINING AND IN SOME CASES INCREASING NET VERTICAL SHEAR THROUGHOUT PERIOD. ALTHOUGH TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ANY TIME THROUGH DAY-2...THERE MAY BE A DIURNAL MAX IN THEIR OCCURRENCE...ESPECIALLY IN OUTER BANDS WHERE DISTINCT CONVERGENCE MAXIMA CAN DEVELOP. ANY SUBTLE MESOSCALE AREAS OF DIFFERENTIAL/DIABATIC HEATING WOULD BOTH ENHANCE CAPE AND INTRODUCE SOME BAROCLINICITY...ENHANCING STORM ROTATION AND TORNADO POTENTIAL IN MORE PRECISE CORRIDORS THAN CAN BE RESOLVED THIS FAR IN ADVANCE. ...NERN CONUS... MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST PERSISTENCE OF NE-SW ORIENTED CONVECTIVE BAND ALONG/AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT THROUGH EARLY PERIOD...AND PERHAPS ADDITIONAL ASSOCIATED DEVELOPMENT LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. DIURNAL HEATING AND 60S F SFC DEW POINTS SHOULD OVERCOME WEAK MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ENOUGH TO YIELD MLCAPES AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG...AMIDST NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP-LAYER WIND PROFILES. NEGATIVE FACTORS INCLUDE WEAKENING OF BOTH LOW LEVEL FRONTAL FORCING AND MIDLEVEL LARGE SCALE ASCENT OVER THIS AREA...AS WELL AS WEAK-MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEARS OF AROUND 25 KT. A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG GUSTS...HOWEVER ORGANIZED SEVERE PROBABILITIES ARE NOT LARGE ENOUGH TO COMPEL CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK ATTM. ..EDWARDS.. 09/15/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 16 07:31:38 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 16 Sep 2004 02:31:38 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200409160732.i8G7Wdd19276@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 160730 SWODY2 SPC AC 160726 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0226 AM CDT THU SEP 16 2004 VALID 171200Z - 181200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CHA HSS 50 WNW GSO SOP 45 NW CHS 50 NNE AYS ABY TOI 0A8 HSV CHA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 WSW TUS GBN GCN FMN LVS ROW GDP 70 SW GDP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW CTB 15 WNW MSO 25 ENE BKE 30 N LMT 45 SSW OTH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM VOK IRK OJC CNK BUB BKX AXN 25 E ELO RHI VOK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 N MLB FMY ...CONT... 10 NE GPT LUL UOX OWB 10 NW CMH PIT POU 10 SSW BOS. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF AL/GA AND THE CAROLINAS... REMNANTS OF HURRICANE IVAN WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES ON FRIDAY...WITH BAND OF STRONGER MID LEVEL WESTERLIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES. IT APPEARS THE ONLY ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT ON DAY2 WILL EXIST WITH THE TROPICAL SYSTEM OVER PARTS OF AL/GA AND THE CAROLINAS. ...AL/GA/SC/NC... NHC AND MODEL GUIDANCE DRIFT THE CENTER OF IVAN NORTHWARD INTO NORTHERN AL ON FRIDAY. A VERY MOIST AIRMASS SHOULD BE IN PLACE AS FAR EAST AS THE CAROLINAS. CONTINUED LARGE RADIUS OF STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR ISOLATED TROPICAL TORNADOES FROM CENTER OF CIRCULATION INTO THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS. ..HART.. 09/16/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 16 17:11:36 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 16 Sep 2004 12:11:36 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200409161712.i8GHCad13437@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 161710 SWODY2 SPC AC 161706 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1206 PM CDT THU SEP 16 2004 VALID 171200Z - 181200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW TYS TRI 25 NW GSO 15 E RDU 30 S FAY 40 NNW SSI 30 WNW AYS 20 NW ABY 10 SSW LGC 20 N RMG 35 SSW TYS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW CTB 15 WNW MSO 25 ENE BKE 30 N LMT 45 SSW OTH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNW ELO BRD 25 S STC 25 E MKT 35 SW ALO 40 S IRK 25 SSW OJC CNK BBW 30 W BKX 55 SSE FAR 75 N GFK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 N MLB FMY ...CONT... 10 NE GPT LUL UOX OWB 10 ENE CAK 15 ENE ELM BML 10 NNE CAR. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SERN CONUS... ...SYNOPSIS... MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE REMNANTS OF IVAN...FORECAST OVER SERN TN / NERN AL / NWRN GA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. LOW IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EWD INTO THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE DAY...ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. ELSEWHERE...FAIRLY ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY WITH TIME AS STRONG UPPER LOW OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST MOVES SEWD TOWARD THE PAC NW. THIS WILL RESULT IN HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE WEST AND RISES DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD. ...THE SOUTHEAST... LARGE AREA OF LIMITED INSTABILITY BUT FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS FORECAST ACROSS GA / THE CAROLINAS AND ADJACENT AREAS THIS PERIOD -- WITHIN NRN AND ERN QUADRANTS OF IVAN'S CIRCULATION. VERY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS AND 35 TO 50 KT FLOW PERSISTING AT LOWER LEVELS ACCORDING TO LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A CONTINUED THREAT FOR MINI SUPERCELLS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH W OF THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS LOW MOVES EWD...BUT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS PARTS OF GA AND THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. ..GOSS.. 09/16/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Sep 17 07:33:14 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 17 Sep 2004 02:33:14 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200409170734.i8H7YPd23971@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 170731 SWODY2 SPC AC 170727 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0227 AM CDT FRI SEP 17 2004 VALID 181200Z - 191200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ENE CZZ 20 SW LAS 25 WNW MLF 25 SSW SLC 55 NNE ENV 45 SE BAM 15 NNE TVL 25 NW SVE 30 ESE 4LW 55 S BKE 30 NNE S80 55 NNW FCA ...CONT... 70 NW ISN 40 ENE BIL 30 N WRL 25 N CPR 50 WNW BFF AKO 50 NNE CAO 50 N ROW 75 SSW GDP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE CRE 25 WNW FLO 15 SW HKY SSU 35 NW BWI 15 E NEL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW FMY 30 SSE VRB. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... BROAD UPPER TROUGH NOW OVER THE GULF OF AK/NE PACIFIC EXPECTED AMPLIFY DURING THE NEXT 48 HRS AS UPSTREAM RIDGE PROGRESSES E TO THE ALEUTIANS AND DOWNSTREAM RIDGE BUILDS N ACROSS THE PLAINS/MS VLY. IN THE EAST...PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE REMNANTS OF IVAN. THE SYSTEM SHOULD BECOME AT LEAST TEMPORARILY ABSORBED INTO THE WLYS LATER TODAY. BUT RISING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE CNTRL U.S. ON SATURDAY SUGGEST THAT SYSTEM WILL BE LEFT BEHIND OVER THE SRN VA/NC AREA LATER IN THE DAY TWO PERIOD AS THE WLYS LIFT NEWD INTO NRN NEW ECG. ...NC/VA... A LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST OVER PARTS OF CNTRL/ERN VA AND NC ON SATURDAY...WHERE WEAK CONVERGENCE AND FAIRLY RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE /AVERAGE SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70/ WILL LIKELY PERSIST INVOF REMNANT CIRCULATION OF IVAN. BUT AXIS OF RICHEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE /DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S/ WILL LIKELY HAVE BEEN SHUNTED EWD OFF THE NC/SE VA CST BY THAT TIME. IN ADDITION...MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH RESIDUAL WARM CORE SYSTEM ALOFT WILL BE RELATIVELY WARM /AROUND MINUS 7 C AT 500 MB/. THUS...THE POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED SEVERE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LIMITED. ...WRN STATES... MID LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADING NNE INTO PARTS OF AZ AND ADJACENT AREAS OF THE SWRN U.S. FROM T.S. JEANNE SHOULD INCREASE POTENTIAL FOR DIURNALLY ENHANCED STORMS OVER REGION ON SATURDAY. ABSENCE OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND WEAKENING OF LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AS A RESULT OF INCREASED CLOUDINESS SHOULD PRECLUDE MORE THAN AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WITH ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM. FARTHER N...A BAND OR TWO OF FRONTAL AND/OR POST FRONTAL STORMS MAY ACCOMPANY COLD FRONT OVER THE NRN GRT BASIN. WITH MAIN UPPER TROUGH LIKELY TO DEEPEN OFF THE CA CST DURING THIS PERIOD...EXPECT THAT LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT...AND ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH THE FRONTAL STORMS...WILL REMAIN LIMITED. ..CORFIDI.. 09/17/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Sep 17 07:49:50 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 17 Sep 2004 02:49:50 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200409170750.i8H7oqd28898@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 170748 SWODY2 SPC AC 170744 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0244 AM CDT FRI SEP 17 2004 VALID 181200Z - 191200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ENE CZZ 20 SW LAS 25 WNW MLF 25 SSW SLC 55 NNE ENV 45 SE BAM 15 NNE TVL 25 NW SVE 30 ESE 4LW 55 S BKE 30 NNE S80 55 NNW FCA ...CONT... 70 NW ISN 40 ENE BIL 30 N WRL 25 N CPR 50 WNW BFF AKO 50 NNE CAO 50 N ROW 75 SSW GDP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE CRE 25 WNW FLO 15 SW HKY SSU 35 NW BWI 15 E NEL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW FMY 30 SSE VRB. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... BROAD UPPER TROUGH NOW OVER THE GULF OF AK/NE PACIFIC EXPECTED AMPLIFY DURING THE NEXT 48 HRS AS UPSTREAM RIDGE PROGRESSES E TO THE ALEUTIANS AND DOWNSTREAM RIDGE BUILDS N ACROSS THE PLAINS/MS VLY. IN THE EAST...PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE REMNANTS OF IVAN. THE SYSTEM SHOULD BECOME AT LEAST TEMPORARILY ABSORBED INTO THE WLYS LATER TODAY. BUT RISING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE CNTRL U.S. ON SATURDAY SUGGEST THAT SYSTEM WILL BE LEFT BEHIND OVER THE SRN VA/NC AREA LATER IN THE DAY TWO PERIOD AS THE WLYS LIFT NEWD INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND. ...NC/VA... A LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST OVER PARTS OF CNTRL/ERN VA AND NC ON SATURDAY...WHERE WEAK CONVERGENCE AND FAIRLY RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE /AVERAGE SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70/ WILL LIKELY PERSIST INVOF REMNANT CIRCULATION OF IVAN. BUT AXIS OF RICHEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE /DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S/ WILL LIKELY HAVE BEEN SHUNTED EWD OFF THE NC/SE VA CST BY THAT TIME. IN ADDITION...MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH RESIDUAL WARM CORE SYSTEM ALOFT WILL BE RELATIVELY WARM /AROUND MINUS 7 C AT 500 MB/. THUS...THE POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED SEVERE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LIMITED. ...WRN STATES... MID LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADING NNE INTO PARTS OF AZ AND ADJACENT AREAS OF THE SWRN U.S. FROM T.S. JEANNE SHOULD INCREASE POTENTIAL FOR DIURNALLY ENHANCED STORMS OVER REGION ON SATURDAY. ABSENCE OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND WEAKENING OF LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AS A RESULT OF INCREASED CLOUDINESS SHOULD PRECLUDE MORE THAN AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WITH ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM. FARTHER N...A BAND OR TWO OF FRONTAL AND/OR POST FRONTAL STORMS MAY ACCOMPANY COLD FRONT OVER THE NRN GRT BASIN. WITH MAIN UPPER TROUGH LIKELY TO DEEPEN OFF THE CA CST DURING THIS PERIOD...EXPECT THAT LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT...AND ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH THE FRONTAL STORMS...WILL REMAIN LIMITED. ..CORFIDI.. 09/17/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Sep 17 08:07:58 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 17 Sep 2004 03:07:58 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200409170808.i8H88ud02123@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 170805 SWODY2 SPC AC 170800 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0300 AM CDT FRI SEP 17 2004 VALID 181200Z - 191200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ENE CZZ 20 SW LAS 25 WNW MLF 25 SSW SLC 55 NNE ENV 45 SE BAM 15 NNE TVL 25 NW SVE 30 ESE 4LW 55 S BKE 30 NNE S80 55 NNW FCA ...CONT... 70 NW ISN 40 ENE BIL 30 N WRL 25 N CPR 50 WNW BFF AKO 50 NNE CAO 50 N ROW 75 SSW GDP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE CRE 25 WNW FLO 15 SW HKY SSU 35 NW BWI 15 E NEL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW FMY 30 SSE VRB. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... CORRECTED FOR NAME OF TROPICAL SYSTEM NEAR BAJA CA ...SYNOPSIS... BROAD UPPER TROUGH NOW OVER THE GULF OF AK/NE PACIFIC EXPECTED AMPLIFY DURING THE NEXT 48 HRS AS UPSTREAM RIDGE PROGRESSES E TO THE ALEUTIANS AND DOWNSTREAM RIDGE BUILDS N ACROSS THE PLAINS/MS VLY. IN THE EAST...PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE REMNANTS OF IVAN. THE SYSTEM SHOULD BECOME AT LEAST TEMPORARILY ABSORBED INTO THE WLYS LATER TODAY. BUT RISING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE CNTRL U.S. ON SATURDAY SUGGEST THAT SYSTEM WILL BE LEFT BEHIND OVER THE SRN VA/NC AREA LATER IN THE DAY TWO PERIOD AS THE WLYS LIFT NEWD INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND. ...NC/VA... A LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST OVER PARTS OF CNTRL/ERN VA AND NC ON SATURDAY...WHERE WEAK CONVERGENCE AND FAIRLY RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE /AVERAGE SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70/ WILL LIKELY PERSIST INVOF REMNANT CIRCULATION OF IVAN. BUT AXIS OF RICHEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE /DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S/ WILL LIKELY HAVE BEEN SHUNTED EWD OFF THE NC/SE VA CST BY THAT TIME. IN ADDITION...MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH RESIDUAL WARM CORE SYSTEM ALOFT WILL BE RELATIVELY WARM /AROUND MINUS 7 C AT 500 MB/. THUS...THE POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED SEVERE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LIMITED. ...WRN STATES... MID LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADING NNE INTO PARTS OF AZ AND ADJACENT AREAS OF THE SWRN U.S. FROM HRCN JAVIER SHOULD INCREASE POTENTIAL FOR DIURNALLY ENHANCED STORMS OVER REGION ON SATURDAY. ABSENCE OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND WEAKENING OF LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AS A RESULT OF INCREASED CLOUDINESS SHOULD PRECLUDE MORE THAN AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WITH ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM. FARTHER N...A BAND OR TWO OF FRONTAL AND/OR POST FRONTAL STORMS MAY ACCOMPANY COLD FRONT OVER THE NRN GRT BASIN. WITH MAIN UPPER TROUGH LIKELY TO DEEPEN OFF THE CA CST DURING THIS PERIOD...EXPECT THAT LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT...AND ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH THE FRONTAL STORMS...WILL REMAIN LIMITED. ..CORFIDI.. 09/17/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Sep 17 17:23:58 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 17 Sep 2004 12:23:58 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200409171724.i8HHOrd01338@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 171722 SWODY2 SPC AC 171718 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1218 PM CDT FRI SEP 17 2004 VALID 181200Z - 191200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW FMY 30 SSE VRB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE OAJ 20 WNW GSB 40 E DAN 10 SE SHD 35 SSE CXY 20 SSE EWR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E CZZ 25 NNW EDW 40 S U31 20 SE PIH 20 ESE LND 30 E GJT 20 NE GUP 55 NNE SAD 65 E DUG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NE OMA 25 NE DSM 35 W UIN 30 W TBN 10 NNE CNU 15 W TOP 60 NE OMA. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... TWO MAIN FEATURES OF INTEREST WITH REGARD TO THE CONVECTIVE FORECAST THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE REMNANTS OF IVAN AS WELL AS A STRONG MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WRN CONUS. REMNANTS OF IVAN -- FORECAST TO BE CENTERED OVER SERN VA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD -- SHOULD DRIFT OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WEST SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEEPEN / DIG SEWD...ACCOMPANIED BY BROAD 50 TO 70 KT SWLY JET. ...MID-ATLANTIC COAST... ALTHOUGH LOW PRESSURE CENTER ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANTS OF IVAN WILL LIKELY REMAIN ACROSS SERN VA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...MAIN AXIS OF FAVORABLE INSTABILITY / SHEAR ON ERN FLANK OF STORM SHOULD BE OFFSHORE BY 18/12Z. THEREFORE...ALTHOUGH SOME RAIN ALONG WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD PERSIST DURING THE DAY -- PARTICULARLY N OF THE CENTER...ANY APPRECIABLE SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY HAVE ENDED PRIOR TO THE START OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. ...PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST / GREAT BASIN... MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO SPREAD NWD ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST / GREAT BASIN THIS PERIOD AHEAD OF STRENGTHENING WRN U.S. TROUGH -- AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED ACROSS NV / UT. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED...FAVORABLY STRONG / VEERING DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD IS ANTICIPATED -- PARTICULARLY ACROSS PARTS OF ERN NV / UT. ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO DEGREE OF AFTERNOON AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION PRECLUDES THE INTRODUCTION OF SEVERE PROBABILITIES ATTM...AREA MAY WARRANT AN UPGRADE IN LATER OUTLOOKS. ..GOSS.. 09/17/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Sep 18 07:32:17 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 18 Sep 2004 02:32:17 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200409180733.i8I7XDd01864@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 180731 SWODY2 SPC AC 180726 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0226 AM CDT SAT SEP 18 2004 VALID 191200Z - 201200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW ELO 60 NNE ATY 35 NW BBW 25 NNE EHA 35 WNW MAF 70 S MRF ...CONT... 30 ESE IPL 25 W IGM P38 30 WSW ELY 15 NNE U31 70 SE TVL 20 NE SAC 50 E EKA 60 N MFR 25 SSW YKM 55 NW 4OM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WSW PIE 10 NNE DAB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW ILM 10 N OAJ 50 NNE EWN 25 E ECG. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED BUT SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER NOAM ON SUNDAY AS DEEP...POSITIVE TILT TROUGH INITIALLY ALONG THE W CST MOVES E INTO THE GRT BASIN/NRN RCKYS...AND DOWNSTREAM RIDGE ELONGATES NEWD FROM TX TO ERN ONTARIO. OVER THE SOUTHEAST ...GUIDANCE AND CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT RETROGRESSIVE MOTION OF REMNANT CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH FORMER HRCN IVAN WILL OCCUR SOMEWHAT MORE SLOWLY AND ALONG A MORE SLY TRACK THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. AT LOWER LEVELS...WRN TROUGH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A STRONG ...SLOWLY MOVING FRONT THAT WILL EXTEND FROM THE NRN PLNS ACROSS THE CNTRL GRT BASIN TO THE SWRN DESERTS. ...CNTRL/NRN GRT BASIN TO NRN PLNS... SLOWLY-MOVING ANA FRONT WILL LIKELY BE A FOCUS FOR DIURNALLY ENHANCED CONVECTION OVER THE WRN STATES THIS PERIOD. POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT MAY BE ENHANCED AS EXIT REGION OF SPEED MAX NOW OFF THE BC CST ROTATES INTO BASE OF LARGE SCALE TROUGH AND STRENGTHENS MESOSCALE ASCENT ACROSS REGION. BUT DRY NATURE OF BOUNDARY LAYER AND POSITIVE TILT OF UPPER TROUGH SUGGEST THAT MOST OF THE CONVECTION MAY BE POST-FRONTAL. WHATEVER ACTIVITY DOES FORM WILL MOST LIKELY ORGANIZE INTO NARROW BANDS GIVEN 40+ KT DEEP SWLY CLOUD LAYER SHEAR. ANY ASSOCIATED SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE LIMITED TO ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ...AZ/FOUR CORNERS REGION... MORE SUBSTANTIAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE PRESENT S OF THE GRT BASIN...FROM THE MEXICAN BORDER NEWD TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. PWS IN AZ MAY RISE TO NEARLY 2 INCHES...WHICH WILL LIKELY YIELD MORE ROBUST STORMS/STORM CLUSTERS RELATIVE TO POINTS FARTHER N. SOME OF THE ACTIVITY MAY BECOME SUSTAINED/ ORGANIZED GIVEN PRESENCE OF 30-35 KT DEEP SWLY SHEAR ON SRN FRINGE OF LARGE SCALE TROUGH. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SUCH DEVELOPMENT SHOULD EXIST ON WRN FRINGE OF MID/UPPER CLOUD SHIELD SHEARING NNEWD FROM HRCN JAVIER...WHERE GREATEST SURFACE HEATING WILL OCCUR. ABSENCE OF AN IDENTIFIABLE SURFACE OR UPPER LEVEL FOCUSING MECHANISM PRECLUDES A CATEGORICAL SEVERE OUTLOOK ATTM...BUT PARTS OF AZ MAY REQUIRE UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK IN LATER FORECASTS. ...ND/NW MN... SCATTERED ELEVATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE PERIOD OVER ND/NW MN AS LLJ STRENGTHENS DOWNSTREAM FROM SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH. LIMITED LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AND MODEST MOISTURE AVAILABILITY SUGGEST THAT ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ..CORFIDI.. 09/18/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Sep 18 17:35:41 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 18 Sep 2004 12:35:41 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200409181736.i8IHaad24532@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 181733 SWODY2 SPC AC 181729 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1229 PM CDT SAT SEP 18 2004 VALID 191200Z - 201200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW ELO 25 NNE RWF BBW 25 NNE LBL 40 NW BGS 70 S MRF ...CONT... 30 ESE IPL 20 NNW EED 50 NE DRA 50 ESE TPH 20 NE SAC 65 S EKA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WSW PIE 30 N MLB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW ILM 10 N OAJ 50 NNE EWN 25 E ECG. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST THIS PERIOD WILL BE LARGE / HIGH-AMPLITUDE TROUGH MOVING SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE WRN U.S. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WILL ALSO MOVE SLOWLY SEWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES...AND SHOULD EXTEND FROM ND SWWD INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BY AFTERNOON / EARLY EVENING. ...PARTS OF AZ / UT INTO WY / CO / THE FOUR CORNERS REGION... MARGINAL INSTABILITY BUY FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD IS FORECAST AHEAD OF STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. DESPITE LIMITED INSTABILITY...STORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP / INCREASE ACROSS THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF FRONT / TROUGH...AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SPREAD NWD IN DEEP SLY FLOW AHEAD OF HIGH-AMPLITUDE TROUGH. THOUGH MOST STORMS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LEVELS...A LARGE AREA OF LOW-PROBABILITY SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO EXIST. GREATEST THREAT ATTM APPEARS TO EXIST ACROSS UT AND VICINITY INVOF ENTRANCE REGION OF MID-LEVEL JET STREAK FORECAST TO ROUND THE BASE OF UPPER TROUGH AND IMPINGE ON THIS AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. ...NRN PLAINS SWWD INTO NERN CO... ALTHOUGH DRY / DEEP / CAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER IS FORECAST ACROSS THE NRN / CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG / IMMEDIATELY BEHIND FRONT MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO WEAKEN CAP AND ALLOW WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS TO DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON / EARLY EVENING. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED...BROAD ZONE OF ENHANCED MID-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF WRN U.S. TROUGH SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR SOME UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION. ALONG WITH A THREAT FOR MARGINAL HAIL WITH A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS...DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MAY ALSO SUPPORT LOCALLY STRONG / GUSTY WINDS. AS BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS AND LOW-LEVEL JET / WARM ADVECTION INCREASES ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS / WRN MN...A FEW ELEVATED STORMS WHICH DEVELOP ACROSS / SPREAD EWD INTO THIS AREA MAY POSE A THREAT FOR MARGINAL HAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. ..GOSS.. 09/18/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Sep 19 07:20:33 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 19 Sep 2004 02:20:33 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200409190721.i8J7LMd20026@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 190718 SWODY2 SPC AC 190714 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0214 AM CDT SUN SEP 19 2004 VALID 201200Z - 211200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE AIA 15 WNW MHE 30 W SUX 25 E GRI 10 ESE HLC 60 SSW LBL 25 NE DHT 35 SSW IML 15 ESE AIA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW ANJ 35 NNE RST 10 WNW BIE 15 NNW GAG 40 N MAF 30 SSW P07 ...CONT... 50 SE YUM 50 NW PHX 45 ENE IGM 35 SSW BCE 4HV 40 NNW PUC 15 ESE ENV 55 ENE U31 25 WSW LOL 30 SE 4LW 25 W BNO 45 NNE BKE 90 ENE 63S ...CONT... 60 N GGW 40 SE LWT 35 N RIW 50 SW DGW 20 SE PHP 45 NNE ABR 40 WNW RRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSE CTY 35 N DAB. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL PLNS AND LWR MO VLY... ...SYNOPSIS... HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NOAM THROUGH THE PERIOD. SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW DROPPING SSE ALONG THE SRN CA CST SHOULD ACCELERATE NEWD FROM WY/MT INTO MANITOBA MONDAY AND PARTIALLY PHASE WITH A DISTURBANCE OF NRN STREAM ORIGIN OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. FARTHER S...REMAINING PART OF WRN TROUGH EXPECTED TO EDGE ONLY SLOWLY E FROM CA/NV INTO UT/NRN AZ. ELSEWHERE...STRONG RIDGE WILL REMAIN DOMINANT FROM THE SRN PLNS INTO THE GRT LKS AND SERN U.S. PHASING SHORTWAVE IMPULSES SHOULD INDUCE SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG COLD FRONT IN WRN ND EARLY IN THE PERIOD. THE WAVE SHOULD DEEPEN AS IT ACCELERATES NEWD INTO CANADA...AND DRIVE TRAILING COLD FRONT SEWD INTO SRN NEB/NW IA AND ERN MN BY 12Z TUE. THE SRN PART OF SAME FRONT SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY S/SE INTO THE SRN RCKYS AND AZ. ...CNTRL HI PLNS TO LWR MO VLY... COLD FRONT MARKING ERN FRINGE OF WRN U.S. TROUGH WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL/NRN PLNS THIS PERIOD AS THE BOUNDARY PROGRESSES SE BENEATH STRONG /50+ KT/ SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW. STRONG SURFACE RIDGE PERSISTING FROM TX TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL TEND TO CURTAIL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE CNTRL PLNS. IN ADDITION....THE MAIN LLJ WILL BE DIRECTED NEWD INTO CANADA IN ASSOCIATION WITH MANITOBA SURFACE WAVE THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL TEND TO LIMIT DEPTH/INTENSITY OF CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT. THESE FACTORS...AND POSITIVE TILT OF LARGE SCALE TROUGH...SUGGEST THAT FRONTAL-RELATED CONVECTION WILL BE PRIMARILY POST-FRONTAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. NEVERTHELESS....GIVEN LIKELY PRESENCE OF FAIRLY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND AFTERNOON HEATING ALONG THE BOUNDARY...A FEW AREAS OF SURFACE-BASED STORMS DO APPEAR LIKELY IN WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT OVER WRN/NRN NEB NEWD INTO SE SD. MORE WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY MAY ALSO DEVELOP SWD ALONG LEE TROUGH INTO WRN KS AND THE OK/TX PANHANDLE REGION. AMPLE DEEP SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT FOR SUSTAINED STORMS/SUPERCELLS AS VALUES RANGE FROM AROUND 40 KTS IN SW KS TO MORE THAN 60 KTS IN NEB/SD. ALTHOUGH INCREASINGLY MERIDIONAL NATURE OF MEAN FLOW OVER THE RCKYS MAY SOMEWHAT WEAKEN MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER THE PLNS...LAPSE RATES SHOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY STEEP /AROUND 7.5 DEG C PER KM/ TO SUPPORT A FEW STORMS WITH HAIL/HIGH WIND. FARTHER NE...A FEW STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS MAY DEVELOP NEWD ALONG FRONT INTO MN. THE STORMS IN NEB/SE SD WILL LIKELY CONSOLIDATE INTO A LINE MONDAY EVENING AS THE LLJ STRENGTHENS IN RESPONSE TO BOTH DIURNAL FORCING AND TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A COUPLED JET STRUCTURE OVER THE CNTRL/NRN PLNS. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD SEVERE ACTIVITY APPEARS UNLIKELY AS RELATIVELY DRY WARM SECTOR WILL LIMIT DEGREE OF INSTABILITY. ..CORFIDI.. 09/19/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Sep 19 07:24:49 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 19 Sep 2004 02:24:49 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200409190725.i8J7Pdd21519@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 190723 SWODY2 SPC AC 190719 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0219 AM CDT SUN SEP 19 2004 VALID 201200Z - 211200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE AIA 15 WNW MHE 30 W SUX 25 E GRI 10 ESE HLC 60 SSW LBL 25 NE DHT 35 SSW IML 15 ESE AIA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW ANJ 35 NNE RST 10 WNW BIE 15 NNW GAG 40 N MAF 30 SSW P07 ...CONT... 50 SE YUM 50 NW PHX 45 ENE IGM 35 SSW BCE 4HV 40 NNW PUC 15 ESE ENV 55 ENE U31 25 WSW LOL 30 SE 4LW 25 W BNO 45 NNE BKE 90 ENE 63S ...CONT... 60 N GGW 40 SE LWT 35 N RIW 50 SW DGW 20 SE PHP 45 NNE ABR 40 WNW RRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSE CTY 35 N DAB. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL PLNS AND LWR MO VLY... ...SYNOPSIS... HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NOAM THROUGH THE PERIOD. SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW DROPPING SSE ALONG THE SRN CA CST SHOULD ACCELERATE NEWD FROM WY/MT INTO MANITOBA MONDAY AND PARTIALLY PHASE WITH A DISTURBANCE OF NRN STREAM ORIGIN OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. FARTHER S...REMAINING PART OF WRN TROUGH EXPECTED TO EDGE ONLY SLOWLY E FROM CA/NV INTO UT/NRN AZ. ELSEWHERE...STRONG RIDGE WILL REMAIN DOMINANT FROM THE SRN PLNS INTO THE GRT LKS AND SERN U.S. PHASING SHORTWAVE IMPULSES SHOULD INDUCE SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG COLD FRONT IN WRN ND EARLY IN THE PERIOD. THE WAVE SHOULD DEEPEN AS IT ACCELERATES NEWD INTO CANADA...AND DRIVE TRAILING COLD FRONT SEWD INTO SRN NEB/NW IA AND ERN MN BY 12Z TUE. THE SRN PART OF SAME FRONT SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY S/SE INTO THE SRN RCKYS AND AZ. ...CNTRL HI PLNS TO LWR MO VLY... COLD FRONT MARKING ERN FRINGE OF WRN U.S. TROUGH WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL/NRN PLNS THIS PERIOD AS THE BOUNDARY PROGRESSES SE BENEATH STRONG /50+ KT/ SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW. STRONG SURFACE RIDGE PERSISTING FROM TX TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL TEND TO CURTAIL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE CNTRL PLNS. IN ADDITION....THE MAIN LLJ WILL BE DIRECTED NEWD INTO CANADA IN ASSOCIATION WITH MANITOBA SURFACE WAVE THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL TEND TO LIMIT DEPTH/INTENSITY OF CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT. THESE FACTORS...AND POSITIVE TILT OF LARGE SCALE TROUGH...SUGGEST THAT FRONTAL-RELATED CONVECTION WILL BE PRIMARILY POST-FRONTAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. NEVERTHELESS....GIVEN LIKELY PRESENCE OF FAIRLY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND AFTERNOON HEATING ALONG THE BOUNDARY...A FEW AREAS OF SURFACE-BASED STORMS DO APPEAR LIKELY IN WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT OVER WRN/NRN NEB NEWD INTO SE SD. MORE WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY MAY ALSO DEVELOP SWD ALONG LEE TROUGH INTO WRN KS AND THE OK/TX PANHANDLE REGION. AMPLE DEEP SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT FOR SUSTAINED STORMS/SUPERCELLS AS VALUES RANGE FROM AROUND 40 KTS IN SW KS TO MORE THAN 60 KTS IN NEB/SD. ALTHOUGH INCREASINGLY MERIDIONAL NATURE OF MEAN FLOW OVER THE RCKYS MAY SOMEWHAT WEAKEN MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER THE PLNS...LAPSE RATES SHOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY STEEP /AROUND 7.5 DEG C PER KM/ TO SUPPORT A FEW STORMS WITH HAIL/HIGH WIND. FARTHER NE...A FEW STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS MAY DEVELOP NEWD ALONG FRONT INTO MN. THE STORMS IN NEB/SE SD WILL LIKELY CONSOLIDATE INTO A LINE MONDAY EVENING AS THE LLJ STRENGTHENS IN RESPONSE TO BOTH DIURNAL FORCING AND TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A COUPLED JET STRUCTURE OVER THE CNTRL/NRN PLNS. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD SEVERE ACTIVITY APPEARS UNLIKELY AS RELATIVELY DRY WARM SECTOR WILL LIMIT DEGREE OF INSTABILITY. ..CORFIDI.. 09/19/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Sep 19 17:33:42 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 19 Sep 2004 12:33:42 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200409191734.i8JHYUd26020@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 191732 SWODY2 SPC AC 191727 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1227 PM CDT SUN SEP 19 2004 VALID 201200Z - 211200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE 9V9 30 SSW ATY 40 N SUX 40 ESE GRI 40 N RSL 55 N GCK 15 SSW GLD 25 WNW IML 15 SSE 9V9. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE YUM 50 SSW PRC 45 NE INW 40 ESE U17 55 WNW 4HV 50 W MLF 35 E U31 90 N WMC 20 NNE BNO 30 SSE PDT 60 NE 63S ...CONT... 25 NNW ANJ 40 N ALO 50 NE FNB 15 NNW GAG 40 N MAF 30 SSW P07. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW CTY 25 NNE JAX. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE WRN U.S. TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY EWD THIS PERIOD. ALTHOUGH HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD SLOWLY EWD ACROSS ND / MN IN ADVANCE OF THIS TROUGH...LITTLE CHANGE IN HEIGHTS IS FORECAST FURTHER S ACROSS THE PLAINS. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM CENTRAL ND SSWWD INTO NERN CO AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...WITH LEE TROUGH EXTENDING SWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS. WITH TIME...NRN PORTIONS OF THIS FRONT WILL SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AHEAD OF MORE PROGRESSIVE PORTION OF UPPER TROUGH. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY / WRN UPPER LAKES SWWD INTO NWRN KS / ERN CO. ...THE PLAINS... STRONGER DYNAMICS / FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL SHIFT NEWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS / CANADIAN PRAIRIE INTO WRN ONTARIO WITH TIME...WHILE VERTICAL MOTION / POTENTIAL FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD REMAIN MUCH WEAKER FURTHER S ACROSS THE PLAINS. ADDITIONALLY...RELATIVELY WEAK LAPSE RATES AND LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR DESTABILIZATION ALONG ENTIRE LENGTH OF COLD FRONT...WHICH SHOULD ALSO LIMIT STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. NONETHELESS...ERN FRINGES OF 70 TO 80 KT MID-LEVEL JET AHEAD OF MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL EXTEND EWD INTO THE WARM SECTOR. WITH 35 TO 50 KT FLOW AT MID LEVELS FORECAST ABOVE SURFACE BOUNDARY...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION. ALTHOUGH LIMITED BY LACK OF INSTABILITY...A FEW STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINAL HAIL WILL LIKELY EVOLVE DURING THE AFTERNOON. GREATEST POTENTIAL APPEARS TO EXIST FROM CENTRAL NEB NEWD INTO SERN SD...WHERE MOST FAVORABLE INSTABILITY / SHEAR COMBINATION WILL LIKELY EXIST. ALTHOUGH MORE FAVORABLE KINEMATIC AND DYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED FURTHER N ALONG FRONT INTO MN...WEAKER INSTABILITY ACROSS THIS REGION SUGGESTS ONLY A MINIMAL SEVERE THREAT. IF AIRMASS CAN DESTABILIZE ACROSS THIS REGION MORE THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...SLIGHT RISK MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED NWD IN LATER OUTLOOKS. OVERNIGHT...LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE MIDDLE MO VALLEY...SUGGESTING THAT A HAIL THREAT WITH ELEVATED CONVECTION MAY PERSIST ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDDLE MO VALLEY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ..GOSS.. 09/19/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Sep 19 18:22:54 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 19 Sep 2004 13:22:54 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200409191823.i8JINgd09048@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 191820 SWODY2 SPC AC 191813 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0113 PM CDT SUN SEP 19 2004 VALID 201200Z - 211200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE 9V9 30 SSW ATY 40 N SUX 40 ESE GRI 40 N RSL 55 N GCK 15 SSW GLD 25 WNW IML 15 SSE 9V9. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE YUM 50 SSW PRC 45 NE INW 40 ESE U17 55 WNW 4HV 50 W MLF 35 E U31 90 N WMC 20 NNE BNO 30 SSE PDT 60 NE 63S ...CONT... 25 NNW ANJ 40 N ALO 50 NE FNB 15 NNW GAG 40 N MAF 30 SSW P07. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW CTY 25 NNE JAX. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE WRN U.S. TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY EWD THIS PERIOD. ALTHOUGH HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD SLOWLY EWD ACROSS ND / MN IN ADVANCE OF THIS TROUGH...LITTLE CHANGE IN HEIGHTS IS FORECAST FURTHER S ACROSS THE PLAINS. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM CENTRAL ND SSWWD INTO NERN CO AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...WITH LEE TROUGH EXTENDING SWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS. WITH TIME...NRN PORTIONS OF THIS FRONT WILL SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AHEAD OF MORE PROGRESSIVE PORTION OF UPPER TROUGH. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY / WRN UPPER LAKES SWWD INTO NWRN KS / ERN CO. ...THE PLAINS... STRONGER DYNAMICS / FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL SHIFT NEWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS / CANADIAN PRAIRIE INTO WRN ONTARIO WITH TIME...WHILE VERTICAL MOTION / POTENTIAL FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD REMAIN MUCH WEAKER FURTHER S ACROSS THE PLAINS. ADDITIONALLY...RELATIVELY WEAK LAPSE RATES AND LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR DESTABILIZATION ALONG ENTIRE LENGTH OF COLD FRONT...WHICH SHOULD ALSO LIMIT STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. NONETHELESS...ERN FRINGES OF 70 TO 80 KT MID-LEVEL JET AHEAD OF MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL EXTEND EWD INTO THE WARM SECTOR. WITH 35 TO 50 KT FLOW AT MID LEVELS FORECAST ABOVE SURFACE BOUNDARY...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION. ALTHOUGH LIMITED BY LACK OF INSTABILITY...A FEW STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINAL HAIL WILL LIKELY EVOLVE DURING THE AFTERNOON. GREATEST POTENTIAL APPEARS TO EXIST FROM CENTRAL NEB NEWD INTO SERN SD...WHERE MOST FAVORABLE INSTABILITY / SHEAR COMBINATION WILL LIKELY EXIST. ALTHOUGH MORE FAVORABLE KINEMATIC AND DYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED FURTHER N ALONG FRONT INTO MN...WEAKER INSTABILITY ACROSS THIS REGION SUGGESTS ONLY A MINIMAL SEVERE THREAT. IF AIRMASS CAN DESTABILIZE ACROSS THIS REGION MORE THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...SLIGHT RISK MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED NWD IN LATER OUTLOOKS. OVERNIGHT...LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE MIDDLE MO VALLEY...SUGGESTING THAT A HAIL THREAT WITH ELEVATED CONVECTION MAY PERSIST ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDDLE MO VALLEY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ..GOSS.. 09/19/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Sep 20 11:35:26 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 20 Sep 2004 06:35:26 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200409201136.i8KBaBd32396@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 200728 SWODY2 SPC AC 200724 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0224 AM CDT MON SEP 20 2004 VALID 211200Z - 221200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WSW INK 30 NW GDP 30 S 4CR 40 WNW TCC 30 ENE DHT 20 NNE AMA 45 SW LBB 40 WSW INK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 N PIE 15 SE DAB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 140 ENE APN 15 W PLN 30 W GRB 10 S ALO TOP 25 S PNC 50 SW SPS 50 SSE MAF 30 ESE P07 ...CONT... 25 ESE DUG 65 NNW SVC 35 NE GNT 45 SSW GUC 35 NE U28 40 WNW 4HV 20 WSW DPG 20 E MLD 35 SSW BZN 45 SW BIL 40 NNE RWL 15 NE FCL 20 SSW GLD 15 E BUB 25 NW ATY 10 E INL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR A SMALL PART OF THE SRN HI PLNS... ...SYNOPSIS... SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW LIFTING NNE ACROSS THE RCKYS WILL CONTINUE NE ACROSS HUDSON BAY ON TUESDAY...LEAVING BEHIND REMAINING PORTION OF EXISTING TROUGH OVER THE GRT BASIN. THE LATTER SYSTEM WILL ITSELF BEGIN TO EJECT NEWD LATER TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED WLY FLOW ACROSS THE NE PACIFIC AND WRN CANADA. IN THE MEANTIME...STRONG RIDGE EXPECTED TO HOLD FIRM FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER DAY E OF THE MISSISSIPPI. AT LWR LEVELS...COLD FRONT WHICH WILL CROSS THE NRN PLNS AND UPR MS VLY LATER TODAY/TONIGHT SHOULD REACH A NE MN/NW IA/NW KS/SE CO LINE BY 12Z TUESDAY. THE BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DROP S ACROSS THE HI PLNS DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...AND SHOULD EXTEND FROM SE NM INTO NW OK BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. DOMINANT ERN RIDGE SHOULD KEEP THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT MORE SLOWLY-MOVING. IN FACT...THE BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY FROM CNTRL KS THROUGH CNTRL IA AND CNTRL WI INTO NRN MI BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. ...SRN HI PLNS... LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LIMITED SE OF THE COLD FRONT OVER THE SRN/CNTRL PLNS ON TUESDAY AS A RESULT OF PERSISTENT SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM TX TO THE MID ATLANTIC CST. COUPLED WITH POSITIVE TILT OF GRT BASIN TROUGH...EXPECT THAT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY POST-FRONTAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCATTERED SURFACE-BASED STORMS WILL...NEVERTHELESS...LIKELY FORM ALONG AND PERHAPS AHEAD OF BOUNDARY AS IT SETTLES S ACROSS CNTRL/ERN NM AND W TX DURING THE AFTERNOON. IN THIS REGION...THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN AND LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE PRESENT TO BREAK WEAK CAP. GIVEN STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE /25-30 KT/ SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW...SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME SUSTAINED AND/OR ORGANIZED INTO SMALL CLUSTERS. A THREAT MAY DEVELOP FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND AND POSSIBLY HAIL FROM A FEW CELLS AS HEATING BOOSTS MLCAPE TO AROUND 1000 J/KG. BUT ANY SUCH THREAT SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIMITED AS MOISTURE WILL BE SPARSE...LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE WEAK...AND CONTINUED SWD MOTION OF FRONT UNDERCUTS UPDRAFTS. ..CORFIDI.. 09/20/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Sep 20 17:04:08 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 20 Sep 2004 12:04:08 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200409201704.i8KH4rd26625@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 201701 SWODY2 SPC AC 201657 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1157 AM CDT MON SEP 20 2004 VALID 211200Z - 221200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE CNM 25 WSW CNM 40 SE 4CR 55 NNW TCC 10 WSW CAO 25 SSW EHA 20 NNE AMA 35 WSW LBB 30 SE CNM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 N PIE 15 SE DAB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSW DMN 35 WNW TCS 20 W ABQ 20 N FMN 20 SW U17 35 E MLF 20 NW U24 25 WNW MLD 15 WNW JAC 35 WNW RIW 35 S RWL 30 NE DEN 35 SE SNY 35 SSW ANW 40 NNW ATY 30 E RRT ...CONT... 30 SSE CMX 35 NE DSM 10 SSE FNB 45 WNW END 10 NNW CDS 40 S MAF 30 ESE P07. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ERN NM AND PARTS OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... HIGH AMPLITUDE FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE CONUS THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE A LARGE BLOCKING HIGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE EAST...AND A DEEP UPPER TROUGH MAKING SLOW PROGRESS ACROSS THE WEST AND THE ROCKIES. A STRONG FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE SITUATED BETWEEN THESE TWO LARGE SCALE FEATURES...FROM THE NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY S/SWWD INTO THE CNTRL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS. SOMEWHAT MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW OVER THE NORTH WILL PROMOTE FRONTAL PASSAGE EWD FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO THE WRN GREAT LAKES...WHILE PLAINS PORTION OF THE BOUNDARY REMAINS QUASISTATIONARY FROM NEB INTO WRN KS. COLDER AIR SPREADING EAST AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT RANGE...COUPLED WITH UPSLOPE FLOW AND DIABATIC PROCESSES...WILL RESULT IN THE COLD FRONT DEVELOPING SEWD ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS OF CO/NERN NM AND THE TX/OK PNHDLS FROM LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. ...ERN NM TO THE PNHDLS AND WRN KS... ZONE OF MODEST UPSLOPE FLOW AND PERSISTENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THIS REGION SHOULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS BY AFTERNOON. WHILE THE BULK OF THE REGION REMAINS SOUTH OF MORE FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE WRN UPPER TROUGH...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND ASCENT NEAR LEE/THERMAL TROUGH AXIS...AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT DEVELOPING SEWD ACROSS ERN CO SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR TSTM INITIATION. ACROSS THE NRN PORTIONS OF THE SLGT RISK AREA...20-30KT SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER TO SWLY IN THE MID LEVELS PRODUCING ADEQUATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR STORM ORGANIZATION/PERSISTENCE...AND A CHANCE FOR HAIL/WIND ALONG A RELATIVELY NARROW CORRIDOR FROM NERN NM INTO SWRN KS. FARTHER SOUTH...ACROSS SERN NM...VERY WARM AND WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AND POTENTIAL FOR GREATER INSTABILITY SUGGESTS A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL DESPITE SOMEWHAT WEAKER DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THIS REGION. ..CARBIN.. 09/20/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Sep 21 07:43:23 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 21 Sep 2004 02:43:23 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200409210744.i8L7i5d14266@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 210742 SWODY2 SPC AC 210737 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0237 AM CDT TUE SEP 21 2004 VALID 221200Z - 231200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S CNM 30 E ALM 35 N 4CR 35 W CAO 25 ENE CAO 30 WNW AMA 55 W LBB 30 S CNM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PIE 30 SSE VRB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 N ANJ 40 NE RST 25 NNE STJ 35 SSW P28 40 N CDS 50 SSE LBB 45 SSE BGS 25 S JCT 40 ENE SAT 35 SW PSX ...CONT... 40 SSW DMN 35 WNW TCS 20 W ABQ DRO 30 W 4BL 30 SW PUC 15 ESE OGD 50 SSW JAC 50 ENE JAC 35 ENE WRL 25 NW DGW 25 NE FCL 35 SE SNY 40 NE VTN 40 SSW JMS 30 E RRT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A SMALL PART OF THE SRN HI PLNS... ...SYNOPSIS... LINGERING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GRT BASIN EXPECTED TO EJECT NE AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE CNTRL RCKYS/HI PLNS ON WEDNESDAY AS WLY FLOW INCREASES OVER THE NE PACIFIC/WRN CANADA AND THE PACIFIC NW. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE RELATIVE TO THE ETA/GFS. AT THE SURFACE...PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY STRONG ANTICYCLONES CENTERED OVER THE GRT BASIN AND OH VLY. BETWEEN THE TWO RIDGES... SRN PART OF FRONTAL ZONE THAT WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE CNTRL/SRN PLNS WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE SEWD LATER IN THE PERIOD AS EJECTING SYSTEM INDUCES DEVELOPMENT OF A WAVE ALONG THE FRONT IN NEB/SD. ...SRN HI PLNS... SETUP SHOULD ONCE AGAIN SUPPORT SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL STORMS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AND ALONG LEE TROUGH OVER CNTRL AND ERN NM. WITH MAJOR PORTION OF EJECTING TROUGH REMAINING WELL N OF REGION...EXPECT THAT LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN WEAK OVER THE SRN PLNS. IN ADDITION...PERSISTENT SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO INHIBIT LARGE SCALE MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. NEVERTHELESS...A MODEST AMOUNT OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE /SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S/ SHOULD REMAIN PRESENT OVER ERN NM AND WRN/SWRN TX GIVEN WEAK SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW ON SWRN FLANK OF RIDGE. UPSLOPE FLOW AND SURFACE HEATING SHOULD ONCE AGAIN SUPPORT AFTERNOON STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CNTRL/ERN NM...AND PERHAPS ALONG COLD FRONT/LEE TROUGH IN PARTS OF W TX. MODERATE /30 KT/ MID LEVEL WSWLY FLOW ROUNDING BASE OF UPPER TROUGH SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT DEEP SHEAR FOR A FEW ORGANIZED/SUSTAINED CELLS AS SURFACE HEATING BOOSTS MLCAPE TO NEAR 1000 J/KG. GIVEN THIS ENVIRONMENT...A FEW STORMS COULD YIELD LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL. THE OVERALL THREAT SHOULD... HOWEVER...REMAIN FAIRLY LIMITED IN INTENSITY/DURATION GIVEN RELATIVELY MODEST SHEAR AND WEAK LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT. ...LWR MO VLY... THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AND/OR INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATE IN THE PERIOD OVER PARTS OF NEB/SD AS WARM ADVECTION/DPVA INCREASE DOWNSTREAM FROM EJECTING UPPER TROUGH. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE PRIMARILY ELEVATED. GIVEN MEAGER MOISTURE SUPPLY IN WARM SECTOR AND WEAK LAPSE RATES...THE DEGREE OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL PROBABLY BE TOO LIMITED TO POSE A THREAT FOR SUSTAINED SEVERE. ..CORFIDI.. 09/21/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Sep 21 16:16:06 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 21 Sep 2004 11:16:06 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200409211616.i8LGGnd06283@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 211614 SWODY2 SPC AC 211610 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1110 AM CDT TUE SEP 21 2004 VALID 221200Z - 231200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 E DUG 35 SE ONM 35 ENE LVS 45 WSW RTN 10 NW FMN 15 NW 4BL 35 S VEL 25 ESE RKS 50 SSW DGW 55 WSW CDR 25 NE CDR 30 NW 9V9 35 ESE ABR 45 ENE FAR 45 W INL ...CONT... 25 NNE ELO 35 SE MSP 35 SSW FOD 40 N FNB 25 NNE EMP 15 ESE PNC 35 SW OKC 10 E SPS 55 WNW MWL 35 NNE SJT 25 WSW JCT 40 ESE SAT 30 N GLS CEW 25 S TLH ...CONT... 45 N PIE VRB. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... STRONG UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL ROCKIES WILL LIFT ENEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS UPSTREAM WLY FLOW INCREASES ACROSS THE ERN PACIFIC AND PACIFIC NORTHWEST. TWO LARGE AREAS OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND OHIO VALLEY RESPECTIVELY. BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS...A NARROW ZONE OF GREATER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SUSTAINED LIFT WILL PROMOTE TSTM DEVELOPMENT. STRONGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD CONCENTRATE ALONG THE FRONT ZONE ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS ACROSS THIS REGION. FARTHER SOUTH...THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SWD/SEWD OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS AND SHOULD EXTEND FROM SERN KS...ACROSS NWRN OK...AND INTO SRN NM BY EARLY THURSDAY. ...SRN HIGH PLAINS... SITUATION WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS NERN NM AND THE PNHDLS INTERSECTING LEE/THERMAL TROUGH ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN NM. INCREASING DIURNAL INSTABILITY SHOULD AGAIN SUPPORT SCATTERED STORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND ALONG LEE TROUGH OVER CNTRL AND ERN NM. WITH UPPER TROUGH EJECTING N OF REGION...LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN WEAK OVER THE SRN PLNS. HOWEVER...MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW AND SURFACE HEATING SHOULD BOOST MLCAPE TO NEAR 1000 J/KG. COUPLED WITH MODERATE MID LEVEL WSWLY FLOW ROUNDING BASE OF UPPER TROUGH...SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL EXIST FOR A COUPLE OF ORGANIZED/SUSTAINED CELLS WITH A CHANCE FOR WIND/HAIL. GIVEN RELATIVELY MODEST SHEAR...WEAK LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT...AND DIURNAL NATURE OF THE CONVECTION... ONLY LOW SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES ARE WARRANTED AT THIS TIME. ...KS/NEB/WRN IA... STORMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE BY WEDNESDAY EVENING OVER PARTS OF KS/NEB AS EJECTING UPPER TROUGH ACTS TO ENHANCE ASCENT ALONG THE S-N ORIENTED FRONTAL ZONE. LIMITED MOISTURE AND RELATIVELY WEAK LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR RESULT IN LOW INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF 500 J/KG MUCAPE. IN ADDITION...IT APPEARS THAT THE BULK OF CONVECTION WILL OCCUR IN POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT THUS LIMITING ANY SEVERE THREAT TO MARGINAL HAIL. ..CARBIN.. 09/21/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 22 07:32:11 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 22 Sep 2004 02:32:11 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200409220732.i8M7Wqd30618@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 220731 SWODY2 SPC AC 220726 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0226 AM CDT WED SEP 22 2004 VALID 231200Z - 241200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E PSX 40 SSE CLL 25 WNW LFK 50 SSE SHV 25 WNW BTR 30 N BVE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 100 NNE CMX 25 SW RHI 25 S LSE 20 ENE DSM 15 N BIE 20 W BBW 40 SSE PHP 35 NE MBG 70 N DVL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW TWF 60 SE BKE LWS 30 ESE 3TH 40 W LWT 30 N SHR 25 NNW DGW 20 SW LAR 40 W CAG 45 E EVW 20 WNW MLD 35 NW TWF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SSW DMN 30 S TCS 30 SE 4CR 25 SE CVS 45 W CDS 25 ENE CSM 10 SSE PNC 35 WSW JLN 30 W FSM 20 SSW ADM 30 NNE ABI 20 S SJT 35 SE DRT. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER LOW NOW OVER THE GRT BASIN EXPECTED TO EJECT NE ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE PLNS...THE UPR MS VLY AND THE UPR GRT LKS ON THURSDAY AS WLY FLOW CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD WRN CANADA AND THE PACIFIC NW. ELSEWHERE...DOWNSTREAM RIDGE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND ELONGATE NE/SW FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TO THE NW GULF OF MEXICO. AT THE SURFACE...LOW ASSOCIATED WITH EJECTING TROUGH SHOULD BE NEAR FSD AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. THE LOW WILL LIKELY MOVE RAPIDLY NNEWD DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SWEEPS NE ACROSS THE UPR MS VLY/WRN GRT LKS. THE SRN PART OF SAME BOUNDARY WILL WEAKEN UPON MOVING SE ACROSS THE SRN PLNS/LWR MS VLY. ...SE NM/SW TX... WEAK LOW LEVEL E/NELY FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD SE NM/SW TX ON THURSDAY IN WAKE OF SHALLOW COLD FRONT MOVING SE ACROSS THE SRN PLNS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ENVIRONMENT /DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S/ OVER THE REGION BENEATH WEAK /15-20 KT/ WSWLY MID LEVEL FLOW. SURFACE HEATING AND UPSLOPE COMPONENT...COUPLED WITH 500 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND MINUS 9 C ...SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY YIELD HAIL AND POSSIBLY LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND AS MLCAPE RISES TO AROUND 1000 J/KG. BUT WEAK DEEP SHEAR AND MEAGER LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT SUGGEST THAT THE SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN ISOLATED...SHORT LIVED AND STRONGLY DIURNAL. ...UPR MS VLY... A BAND OF LOW TOPPED CONVECTION/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY COLD FRONT CROSSING THE NRN HALF OF IA AND MN. LIMITED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE SUPPLY AND WEAK LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH LARGELY MERIDIONAL LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW SUGGEST THAT UPDRAFTS WILL REMAIN WEAK DESPITE STRONG LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT. CONSEQUENTLY...POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED SEVERE ACTIVITY APPEARS SLIM. NEVERTHELESS...GIVEN STRENGTH OF MEAN WIND /45-50 KTS/...A POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS ...ESPECIALLY IF MORE SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE HEATING CAN OCCUR THAN IS NOW ANTICIPATED. ..CORFIDI.. 09/22/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 22 17:26:55 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 22 Sep 2004 12:26:55 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200409221727.i8MHRWd28413@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 221725 SWODY2 SPC AC 221720 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1220 PM CDT WED SEP 22 2004 VALID 231200Z - 241200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E DLH 30 E MSP 20 N MKT 45 SSE AXN 40 WSW AXN 25 E RRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NW LRD 25 NE CRP 15 NE PSX 30 SSE CLL 50 ENE ACT FTW 55 WNW MWL 30 NNE ABI 20 SSW SJT 30 SE DRT 55 NW LRD ...CONT... 45 W MRF 30 SE HOB 15 NE LBB 45 NNE CDS 30 NW END 20 WNW EMP 20 NNE BIE 25 W BBW 45 SSE PHP 55 NE MBG 65 N DVL ...CONT... 95 N CMX 40 S CMX 30 SSW RFD 45 S UIN 45 W UNO 40 NNW HOT 25 W ELD 40 NNE ESF 40 SSW LUL 25 SSW MOB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSE FMY 30 S PBI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE GTF 30 NE SHR 50 NNW DGW 25 SW LAR 45 WSW CAG 45 N VEL 10 W MLD 30 WNW TWF 45 NNW BOI 10 WSW LWS 25 NNE 3TH 40 ESE FCA 40 ESE GTF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/NRN MN AND FAR NWRN WI... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER TROUGH...CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS WRN CO...IS PROGGED TO BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED TOWARD THE END OF DAY 1 AND INTENSIFY ON THURSDAY AS IT LIFTS NEWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY. BAND OF 60-80 KT SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ACCOMPANYING THE TROUGH WILL SPREAD INTO MN WITH FAVORABLE LEFT EXIT REGION SUPPORTING INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT INTO CENTRAL/NRN MN BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN STRONG HEIGHT FALLS WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH /150-180 METERS/...ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS NNEWD INTO WRN/NWRN MN BY 24/00Z. COLD FRONT...INITIALLY TRAILING SWD FROM THE SURFACE LOW INTO ERN NEB/KS...WILL MOVE QUICKLY NEWD REACHING NORTH CENTRAL MN TO ERN IA BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ...CENTRAL/NRN MN AND FAR NWRN WI... DESPITE WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES GIVEN MERIDIONAL TROPOSPHERIC FLOW...A NARROW AXIS OF SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND SURFACE HEATING /AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S/ WILL LIKELY SUPPORT MLCAPE VALUES FROM 500 TO 900 J/KG. STRONG DEEP LAYER ASCENT...ALTHOUGH CONFINED TO THE FAST MOVING COLD FRONT...IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A LINE OF LOW-TOPPED STORMS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON FROM WRN MN TO NRN IA...AND THEN MOVE QUICKLY NEWD INTO CENTRAL/NRN MN AND POTENTIALLY FAR NWRN WI. GIVEN STRENGTH OF UPPER TROUGH/MID-LEVEL WINDS AND COMBINED WITH A MID-LEVEL DRY INTRUSION AND INCREASING SLY LLJ AT 35-45 KT... DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. HOWEVER...BACKED LOW-LEVEL WINDS ALONG THE FRONT AND ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SURFACE LOW WILL INCREASE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES. ...ERN IA/NERN MO... ALTHOUGH STRONGER UPPER FORCING WILL BE NORTH OF THIS AREA...MODELS SUGGEST THERE SHOULD BE MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES EWD INTO ERN IA/NERN MO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ..PETERS.. 09/22/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 23 07:30:13 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 23 Sep 2004 02:30:13 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200409230730.i8N7Umd01860@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 230729 SWODY2 SPC AC 230724 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0224 AM CDT THU SEP 23 2004 VALID 241200Z - 251200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW FHU 45 NW SAD 20 SW GUP 20 WSW DRO 15 SE ASE 10 SE DEN 30 NNW LAA 25 SW EHA 35 W AMA 60 SSE CVS 30 NW MAF 40 WNW SJT 25 W SEP 25 SW DUA 20 ENE FYV 35 S TBN 55 WNW CGI 10 ENE JBR 10 SSE PBF MLU 15 NNE BTR 40 SSE HUM. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS/FORECAST... A RELATIVELY QUIET CONVECTIVE PATTERN WILL DOMINATE THE LWR 48 ON FRIDAY. UPPER TROUGH WHICH WILL CROSS THE UPR MS VLY/WRN GRT LKS LATER TODAY WILL CONTINUE NE ACROSS ONTARIO/WRN QUEBEC DURING THE DAY TWO PERIOD. A SERIES OF WEAKER SHORTWAVE IMPULSES...ORIGINATING IN BOTH THE CANADIAN WLYS AND IN BAND OF WEAKER WLY FLOW OVER THE PACIFIC NW...EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN CYCLONIC REGIME OVER THE UPR MS VLY/UPR GRT LKS. ELSEWHERE...RIDGING WILL PERSIST ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD...OVER BAJA CA AND OVER THE PAC NW. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL PRECEDE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE LWR GRT LKS REGION...AND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT/TROUGH WILL CROSS THE UPR MS VLY. THE SRN END OF THE LEAD BOUNDARY SHOULD SLOWLY DISSIPATE INVOF T.S. IVAN REMNANTS OVER SE TX AND THE LWR MS VLY. OTHERWISE... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER MOST AREAS. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY FORM WITH AFTERNOON HEATING OVER THE NM...SW TX AND PERHAPS SRN CO MOUNTAINS...WHERE WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW WILL PERSIST BENEATH AXIS OF RELATIVELY COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES /AROUND MINUS 12 C AT 500 MB/. A FEW STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP INVOF IVAN REMNANTS OVER SE TX/LA...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS AND WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY LIMIT COVERAGE. WEAK SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SHOULD MITIGATE ANY RISK FOR ORGANIZED/SUSTAINED SEVERE CONVECTION THROUGHOUT THE CONUS. ..CORFIDI.. 09/23/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 23 16:24:51 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 23 Sep 2004 11:24:51 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200409231625.i8NGPPd13437@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 231622 SWODY2 SPC AC 231621 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1121 AM CDT THU SEP 23 2004 VALID 241200Z - 251200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW FHU 45 NW SAD 20 SW GUP 20 WSW DRO 15 SE ASE 10 SE DEN 30 NNW LAA 25 SW EHA 35 W AMA 55 WSW LBB 30 N MAF 35 ESE BGS 25 NW SEP 25 SW DUA 20 ENE FYV 30 SE TBN 55 NNW POF POF 60 ENE PBF 45 N HEZ 15 NNE BTR 40 SSE HUM. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVE...MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL DE-AMPLIFY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT TRANSLATES NEWD FROM THE WRN GREAT LAKES INTO QUEBEC. MEANWHILE...BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME WILL BE MAINTAINED FROM THE CNTRL ROCKIES INTO THE DESERT SW...BETWEEN MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONES OFF THE BAJA AND SERN U.S. COASTS. AT THE SURFACE...PRIMARY FRONTAL ZONE ATTENDANT TO WRN GREAT LAKES TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PUSH EWD/SEWD...LIKELY EXTENDING FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER ERN ONTARIO SWWD THROUGH THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY AND INTO SWRN TX BY LATE AFTERNOON. ...SRN NM/SWRN TX... INCREASING UPSLOPE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO AID IN DIURNAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SACRAMENTO/GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT HIGHER TERRAIN OF SWRN NM BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. ACTIVE SHALLOW CONVECTIVE SCHEME IN ETA BMJ SOUNDINGS APPEARS TO BE OVER-STEEPENING LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WHICH IS CONTRIBUTING TO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. CORRESPONDING ETA KF SOUNDINGS DEPICT WEAKER LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY /I.E. MLCAPES OF 500-800 J/KG/ WHICH APPEARS MORE REASONABLE. THOUGH A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...THE WEAK INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL SHEAR SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT ANY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. THUS...NO PROBABILITIES ARE WARRANTED ATTM. ...SERN TX... LATEST NHC GUIDANCE INDICATES REMNANT T.S. IVAN CIRCULATION MOVING FROM N OF HOU WNWWD TOWARD THE HILL COUNTRY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY AFTER LANDFALL OF SYSTEM...MITIGATING ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT. ..MEAD.. 09/23/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Sep 24 07:31:54 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 24 Sep 2004 02:31:54 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200409240732.i8O7WSd31237@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 240730 SWODY2 SPC AC 240729 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0229 AM CDT FRI SEP 24 2004 VALID 251200Z - 261200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W CTY 30 SSE SSI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE BOS 20 ESE POU 35 WNW ILG 45 NNE SHD 40 NNW SSU 25 WSW CRW UNI 10 N FKL 30 NE ROC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW FHU 35 SSW SOW 10 ENE CEZ 30 WSW 4FC 30 NNW SNY 35 SW MHN 35 SE LBF 35 WNW HLC 30 NW GCK 40 S LBL 45 NW CDS 35 SE CDS 30 NW ADM 50 WSW ARG 35 E JBR 35 W UOX 55 ESE SHV 35 SE BPT. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... RATHER BENIGN PATTERN WILL EVOLVE OVER THE CONUS TOMORROW WITH THE NRN STREAM/MAIN BELT OF WLYS CONFINED TO SRN CANADA. WITHIN THE WLYS...THE WEAKENING REMNANTS OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH NOW OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY WILL EJECT EWD OVER NRN NEW ENGLAND ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. WEAK INSTABILITY IN A NARROW CORRIDOR E OF THE COLD FRONT MAY SUPPORT A FEW /MAINLY DIURNAL/ THUNDERSTORMS IN A BROKEN BAND ALONG THE FRONT...BUT MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND THE WEAKENING MID LEVEL TROUGH SUGGEST THAT THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE MINIMAL. FARTHER W...A LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE REGIME IS FORECAST OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS AREA. THIS UPSLOPE FLOW...IN CONJUNCTION WITH A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS/SRN ROCKIES...SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THIS AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. ...FL E COAST AREA... HURRICANE JEANNE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE FL E COAST LATE IN THE PERIOD /SEE LATEST NHC FORECASTS FOR DETAILS/. DEPENDING ON THE SPEED OF MOTION OF THE HURRICANE...A MARGINAL THREAT FOR MINI SUPERCELLS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE FL E COAST AREA BY SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. STILL...ANY MORE SUBSTANTIAL SUPERCELL/TORNADO THREAT WILL LIKELY BE DELAYED UNTIL BEYOND THIS PERIOD. ..THOMPSON.. 09/24/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Sep 24 16:48:57 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 24 Sep 2004 11:48:57 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200409241649.i8OGnQd07119@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 241647 SWODY2 SPC AC 241647 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1147 AM CDT FRI SEP 24 2004 VALID 251200Z - 261200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 E MIA 45 ESE FMY 40 SSW AGR 30 SW ORL 15 N DAB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W CTY 30 SSE SSI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE BOS 20 ESE POU 35 WNW ILG 45 NNE SHD 40 NNW SSU 25 WSW CRW UNI 10 N FKL 30 NE ROC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW FHU 35 SSW SOW 10 ENE CEZ 30 WSW 4FC 20 SE BFF 10 NE MHN 25 ENE LBF 35 WNW HLC 30 NW GCK 40 S LBL 45 NW CDS 35 SE CDS 30 NW ADM 50 WSW ARG 35 E JBR 35 W UOX 55 ESE SHV 35 SE BPT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ON SATURDAY NIGHT ALONG THE ERN FL PENINSULA... ...FL E COAST... PER LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY...CENTER OF HURRICANE JEANNE IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY NEAR THE ERN FL COAST BY 12Z SUNDAY. THIS SUGGESTS THAT A PRECEDING INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL LIKELY OCCUR ON SATURDAY NIGHT ALONG THE COAST WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR MINI SUPERCELLS AND BRIEF TORNADOES. ...ERN NY/WRN NEW ENGLAND... DE-AMPLIFYING MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EWD ACROSS SERN CANADA WITH 30-60M HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREADING THE NERN STATES ON SATURDAY. ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EWD AT THIS TIME AND LIKELY BE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. DESPITE RATHER MODEST LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S WILL LARGELY AID IN PRE-FRONTAL AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION WITH MLCAPES APPROACHING 500-700 J/KG DURING TIME OF PEAK HEATING. WHEN COUPLED WITH UNDIRECTIONAL WSWLY WINDS INCREASING TO 40-50 KTS IN THE 4-6 KM AGL LAYER...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FEW ORGANIZED TSTMS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS. THIS THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH BY EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND COLLAPSE OF BOUNDARY-LAYER. ...SRN NM/FAR WRN TX... LITTLE CHANGE TO LARGE-SCALE ENVIRONMENT IS ANTICIPATED BETWEEN TODAY AND SATURDAY. DAYTIME HEATING COUPLED WITH MODESTLY COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES OF -12 TO -14 C AT 500 MB ARE EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES BY AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPES APPROACHING 600-800 J/KG. PERSISTENT SELY UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY-LAYER SHOULD AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION ALONG OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED LOCATIONS DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. THOUGH THE MAGNITUDE OF TROPOSPHERIC WINDS IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAK...STRONG VEERING WITH HEIGHT /PARTICULARLY IN THE LOWEST 2-3 KM AGL/ ALONG WITH THE STEEP LAPSE RATES MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED...STRONG UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ..MEAD.. 09/24/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Sep 25 07:27:43 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 25 Sep 2004 02:27:43 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200409250728.i8P7SAd31798@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 250726 SWODY2 SPC AC 250724 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0224 AM CDT SAT SEP 25 2004 VALID 261200Z - 271200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW CTY 45 WNW AYS 45 SE AGS 35 SW CRE ...CONT... 20 SSE PBI 35 E FMY 10 SSW SRQ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE FHU 10 WNW SOW 15 N DRO 60 E GUC 20 SE LIC 50 ENE LAA 25 ENE LBL 30 E CSM 15 S DUA 10 ENE TYR 25 SSW LFK 20 ENE GLS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S TLH 15 NNE ABY 45 NW AGS 45 SE CLT 15 SW HSE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CMX 15 SW IWD 65 ENE STC 35 W AXN 60 NNE ABR 45 SE DVL 55 W RRT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SE ATLANTIC COAST.... ...SYNOPSIS... ASIDE FROM HURRICANE JEANNE...THE PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS WILL CONSIST OF THE MAIN BELT OF WLYS NEAR AND N OF THE CANADIAN BORDER. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD AND AMPLIFY OVER ONTARIO LATE IN THE PERIOD WHILE AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS/MN. THE NWD RETURN OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT...AIDED BY SOME SURFACE EVAPOTRANSPIRATION...MAY RESULT IN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM ERN ND TO NRN MN DURING THE EVENING. FARTHER S...A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE SRN NM/FAR W TX AREA. LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW AND BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S ACROSS NM AND 60S ACROSS CENTRAL/W TX SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN A BROADER RAIN AREA. ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LIMITED BY THE CUMULATIVE EFFECTS OF CONVECTION THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS...AS WELL AS BY WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR. ...SE ATLANTIC COAST... HURRICANE JEANNE IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL TONIGHT ALONG THE E COAST OF FL...AND A GRADUAL TURN TO THE N IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA SUNDAY /SEE LATEST NHC ADVISORIES FOR DETAILS/. AS THE HURRICANE CORE MOVES INLAND...THE REGION OF GREATER INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR N THROUGH E OF THE CENTER WILL REACH THE FL COAST...SUPPORTING THE THREAT FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS/TORNADOES. ..THOMPSON.. 09/25/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Sep 25 16:51:54 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 25 Sep 2004 11:51:54 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200409251652.i8PGqJd30900@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 251650 SWODY2 SPC AC 251649 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1149 AM CDT SAT SEP 25 2004 VALID 261200Z - 271200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE PBI 35 E FMY 10 SSW SRQ ...CONT... 25 WNW CTY 45 WNW AYS 30 E AGS 10 SSW CRE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CMX 15 SW IWD 65 ENE STC 35 W AXN 60 NNE ABR 45 SE DVL 55 W RRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE FHU 10 WNW SOW 20 S DRO 25 NNW ALS 25 WSW LHX 35 E LAA 35 SW DDC 30 E CSM 15 S DUA 10 ENE TYR 25 SSW LFK 20 ENE GLS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S TLH 15 NNE ABY 45 NW AGS 45 SE CLT 15 SW HSE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SW MSO 25 NNW LWT 25 SSE MLS 35 SSW 81V 35 NNW RWL 40 NE EVW 25 NNW BYI 60 NNE BOI 45 SW MSO. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SERN ATLANTIC COAST... ...SYNOPSIS... SPLIT FLOW PATTERN IS FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS THROUGH THE DAY 2 PERIOD. BUILDING HEIGHTS ACROSS WRN CANADA AND A RESULTANT DEEPENING OF DOWNSTREAM TROUGH OVER CNTRL CANADA/N-CNTRL U.S. WILL RESULT IN AN OVERALL AMPLIFICATION TO NRN STREAM BRANCH. MEANWHILE...A RATHER DEEP TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST IN THE SRN STREAM OVER THE S-CNTRL STATES. AT THE SURFACE...BAROCLINIC ZONE ATTENDANT TO N-CNTRL U.S. TROUGH WILL PUSH SEWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCUS FOR PRIMARILY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED...DIURNAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER ERN ND AND MN...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE NRN ROCKIES WHERE AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME WEAKLY UNSTABLE. ELSEWHERE...BROAD REGION OF LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT INVOF SRN STREAM TROUGH SHOULD SUSTAIN SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS OVER PARTS OF NM AND TX. ...SE ATLANTIC COAST... LATEST NHC GUIDANCE HAS THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JEANNE OVER THE CNTRL PENINSULA AT THE ONSET OF THE FORECAST...WITH A SUBSEQUENT NNWWD MOVEMENT INTO S-CNTRL GA BY MONDAY MORNING. THIS MOTION WILL ALLOW REGION OF GREATER INSTABILITY AND STRONGER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR /AND INHERENT TORNADO THREAT/ TO SPREAD NWD ALONG THE MIDDLE TO UPPER ERN FL PENINSULA THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE GA/SC COASTS ON SUNDAY NIGHT. ..MEAD.. 09/25/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Sep 26 17:27:15 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 26 Sep 2004 12:27:15 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200409261727.i8QHRbd05934@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 261725 SWODY2 SPC AC 261724 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1224 PM CDT SUN SEP 26 2004 VALID 271200Z - 281200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NNE MLB 25 S CTY 20 SE MGR 45 ENE MCN 30 ENE CLT 55 E DAN 25 NE ORF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ENE AQQ 10 SSW CSG 20 WSW GSP 25 NE CHO 30 ESE DOV. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 E DUG 30 E SAD 40 N SAD 30 NE SOW 15 SW GUP 10 SW FMN 25 ESE MTJ 45 SW CAG 50 ESE EVW 40 SW TWF 75 NW OWY 45 NNE BNO 35 NNW BKE 15 NW S80 40 WSW 3DU 30 S SHR 40 WNW CDR 20 NW VTN 15 WNW FSD 60 NNE EAU 50 NNW GRB 10 WSW MTW 25 WSW OTM CNK 35 W P28 15 ENE SEP 25 ENE CRP. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE SERN ATLANTIC COAST... ...SYNOPSIS... POSITIVELY-TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN NRN BRANCH OF WESTERLIES IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY THROUGH THE DAY 2 PERIOD AS IT TRANSLATES SEWD FROM CNTRL CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. INCREASING SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL ALLOW REMNANT JEANNE CIRCULATION TO ACCELERATE NEWD ALONG THE SERN U.S. COAST. MEANWHILE TO THE SW... MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN WHILE NEXT UPSTREAM LOW GRADUALLY MOVES ONTO THE CNTRL CA COAST. AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO THE NRN STREAM TROUGH WILL PUSH SEWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND CNTRL PLAINS AND WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. PERSISTENT SURFACE RIDGE AXIS FROM THE OH VALLEY INTO LOWER MO VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT DEGREE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF FRONT. RESULTANT WEAK INSTABILITY AND MINIMAL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ALONG FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ...SERN ATLANTIC COAST... LATEST SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS VARYING SOLUTIONS ON MOVEMENT OF JEANNE CIRCULATION WITH THE OPERATIONAL ETA AND SHORT-RANGE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS BEING SLOWER TO MOVE SYSTEM NEWD THAN THE GFS AND ECMWF. AHEAD OF THIS LOW...EXPECT MARITIME TROPICAL AIRMASS /CHARACTERIZED DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S/ TO MOVE ONTO THE GA/CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN...TO THE E OF SW-NE ORIENTED BAROCLINIC ZONE WHICH WILL LIKELY INTENSIFY NEAR THE TRANSITION TO PIEDMONT REGION. DESPITE NEARLY MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES...THIS MOISTURE ALONG WITH DIABATIC HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES OF 500 TO LOCALLY 1000-1500 J/KG. RADIAL BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND FIELDS WILL DIMINISH WITH TIME OWING TO FRICTIONAL EFFECTS...HOWEVER THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY INCREASE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ACROSS INSTABILITY AXIS. MOREOVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL REMAIN MODERATELY STRONG AHEAD OF LOW NWD OR NEWD ALONG BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH 0-1KM SRH OF 150-250 M2/S2. CLUSTERS OR BANDS OF MINI SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM JUST NE OF THE SURFACE LOW NEWD ACROSS WEAKLY-CAPPED WARM SECTOR OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES WILL BE GREATEST AS THESE STORMS CROSS ZONE OF ENHANCE NEAR-GROUND SHEAR INVOF ANTICIPATED SURFACE BOUNDARY. A POSSIBLE UPGRADE TO MODERATE RISK ON SUBSEQUENT DAY 1 OUTLOOKS MAY BE CONSIDERED ONCE MESOSCALE DETAILS BECOME MORE CERTAIN ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA. ..MEAD.. 09/26/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Sep 27 15:49:56 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 27 Sep 2004 10:49:56 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200409271551.i8RFpUd03258@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 271545 SWODY2 SPC AC 271544 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1044 AM CDT MON SEP 27 2004 VALID 281200Z - 291200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CRE FLO SOP RDU WAL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW FHU GBN DAG NID 40 SW TVL 50 W RNO 20 NNW RNO 65 ENE TPH MLF U28 45 SE VEL RKS BPI PIH 40 SSW MHS 25 NE ACV 45 SE OTH DLS 50 NNE 4OM ...CONT... 50 N FCA 50 E HLN 50 NNE BIL OLF 35 NNE ISN MOT BIS MBG MHN LBF SLN EMP 40 ENE BVO MLC DAL 25 SSE DRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW CTY AYS AGS AHN 50 WNW AND AVL 25 SSW JFK. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS NERN SC...ERN NC...SERN VA... ...SYNOPSIS... ON SYNOPTIC SCALE...JUMBLED UPPER AIR PATTERN FCST TO CONTINUE THROUGH DAY-2 WITH SEVERAL WEAK SRN STREAM SHORTWAVES OVER S-CENTRAL/WRN CONUS...POSITIVELY TILTED NRN STREAM TROUGH CROSSING GREAT LAKES/NEW ENGLAND...AND EJECTING REMAINS OF TC JEANNE. LATTER WILL BE PRIMARY FACTOR IN THIS OUTLOOK...AS IT DEAMPLIFIES AND ACCELERATES NEWD...MOVING OFFSHORE NC/VA DURING MIDDLE-LATTER PART OF PERIOD. LOW LEVEL REMAINS OF JEANNE ARE FCST TO LINK WITH NRN STREAM COLD FRONT OVER PIEDMONT OF CAROLINAS BY BEGINNING OF PERIOD...BEFORE SYSTEM MOVES OFFSHORE MID ATLANTIC/TIDEWATER REGIONS IN ASSOCIATION WITH PROGRESSIVE GREAT LAKES TROUGH. ...COASTAL CAROLINAS/SERN VA... EXIT-PHASE SUPERCELL/TORNADO EPISODE MAY BE ONGOING AT BEGINNING OF PERIOD AS REMAINS OF JEANNE APCH ATLANTIC COAST. BASED ON LATEST NHC FCST POSITION OF CENTER...VERY MOIST AND AT LEAST WEAKLY BUOYANT PREFRONTAL AIR MASS...AND ASSOCIATED POSITIONING OF FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES NE-SE OF CENTER...THREAT SHOULD SHIFT NEWD FROM ERN NC ACROSS SERN VA THROUGH APPROXIMATELY 00Z. TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE THROUGH MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS INSOLATION MAXIMIZES SBCAPE TO AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG IN RELATIVELY CLOUD-FREE AREAS...THEN WEAKEN DRASTICALLY THEREAFTER AS SYSTEM EXITS REGION. DESPITE DIMINISHING NATURE OF AMBIENT KINEMATIC FIELDS...NET SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN FAVORABLE AS SFC FLOW WEAKENS FASTER THAN LOW-MIDLEVEL WINDS. THIS IS NOT WELL-DEPICTED BY ETA...WHICH ALSO FAILS TO ISALLOBARICALLY FORCE BACKED BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AHEAD OF REMNANT LOW. ACCORDINGLY MODIFIED MODEL SOUNDINGS/HODOGRAPHS SUGGEST 0-1 KM SRH 250-400 J/KG E OF LOW. ...S-CENTRAL/WRN CONUS... SLOW-MOVING MID-UPPER TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER SRN NM AND FAR W TX -- IS FCST TO MOVE ENEWD TO RED RIVER REGION AND WEAKEN SOMEWHAT. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE FOR ANOTHER DAY TO CONVECTION THAT SHOULD REMAIN NONSEVERE BECAUSE OF SMALL LAPSE RATES AND WEAK SHEAR. COMPACT BUT WELL DEFINED UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER ERN MT AND PROVIDE FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES TO ITS S OVER WY...BUT LIMITED MOISTURE SHOULD PRECLUDE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF REMAINDER OF WRN CONUS AS WELL...ASSOCIATED WITH OROGRAPHIC ASCENT...MARGINAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND WEAK LARGE SCALE DESTABILIZATION PROVIDED BY SEVERAL OTHER MIDLEVEL PERTURBATIONS. ..EDWARDS.. 09/27/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Sep 28 07:13:29 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 28 Sep 2004 02:13:29 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200409280715.i8S7F0d30285@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 280711 SWODY2 SPC AC 280710 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0210 AM CDT TUE SEP 28 2004 VALID 291200Z - 301200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WSW FHU 25 S PHX 45 NW IGM 40 NW NID 15 E FAT 25 NNE RBL 25 WSW LMT 10 E RDM 15 ENE ALW 10 WSW S06 45 NNE 3DU 20 S BIL 20 NNE GCC 40 SSW REJ 35 NW MBG 50 NNW TVF 45 WSW INL 30 NNE STC 10 SE OTG 25 SE BUB 55 SW HLC 45 ENE DHT 15 SW LBB 10 E MAF 40 ESE P07. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW PNS 55 SW SEM 0A8 15 ENE BHM 30 NW ATL 45 WNW AGS 25 ENE SAV. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... A BROAD MID LEVEL LOW IS FORMING OVER CA AND THIS LOW WILL MOVE EWD TO THE SRN GREAT BASIN TOMORROW. IN ADVANCE OF THIS LOW...PERSISTENT LOW-MID LEVEL ASCENT OVER THE RIM WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MOISTENING AND INCREASING THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE FROM TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED TO SPREAD EWD INTO NM. THOUGH INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG /MUCAPE VALUES NEAR 500 J/KG/...35-50 KT SWLY FLOW IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER AND LOW-LEVEL SELY WINDS WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SE AZ EWD INTO SW NM. THE MOST PERSISTENT/INTENSE STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND STRONG OUTFLOW GUSTS. OTHERWISE...WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN W IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD MID LEVEL COLD POOL...STEEP LAPSE RATES...AND SURFACE HEATING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. FARTHER NE...ISOLATED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO OCCUR ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS/NW MN IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL EJECT EWD FROM MT BY TOMORROW. HOWEVER...STORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED BY MARGINAL MOISTURE RETURN AND AT BEST WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY. LASTLY...A WEAK WAVE IS FORECAST TO FORM ACROSS THE AL AREA ALONG A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE TRAILING THE REMNANTS OF JEANNE...AND IN ADVANCE OF AN EJECTING LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE SRN PLAINS. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS AL/GA AS THE L0W LEVELS DESTABILIZE...THOUGH THE ETA APPEARS TO BE OVER-ESTIMATING INSTABILITY IN THIS AREA AS A RESULT OF THE SHALLOW CONVECTIVE SCHEME IN THE MODEL. ..THOMPSON.. 09/28/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 1 17:03:36 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 01 Sep 2004 12:03:36 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200409011704.i81H4eL23788@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 011701 SWODY2 SPC AC 011658 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1158 AM CDT WED SEP 01 2004 VALID 021200Z - 031200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SW MRF 25 SSW FST 50 W JCT 15 SSW HDO 45 WNW ALI 55 N BRO ...CONT... 20 WSW GLS 45 NNW BPT 50 E SHV 55 N GLH 45 S CGI 30 ENE SLO 10 NE IND 30 NNE LEX 35 ESE LOZ 35 NE AVL 25 N FAY 35 N HSE ...CONT... 65 SW TUS 65 N TUS 50 ENE SOW 40 NW ABQ 35 N 4CR 20 W ELP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NE DVL 55 NE MBG 50 NE AIA 30 NNE AKO 15 ENE COS 50 E GUC 30 NW 4BL 15 WSW SGU 45 SSE TPH 20 W U31 10 NE OWY 30 SE 27U 40 NE HVR. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL AMPLIFY CONSIDERABLY ACROSS THE WRN STATES ON THURSDAY AS A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY MOVING ASHORE OVER WA/ORE...SPREADS INLAND ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND NRN ROCKIES. GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS TROUGH AND STRONG 60-90M HEIGHT FALLS PER 12H...ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE/DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE NRN ROCKIES AND IS FCST TO BE SITUATED FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO THE SRN GREAT BASIN BY EARLY FRIDAY. ELSEWHERE...RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE MUCH OF THE CNTRL AND ERN U.S. AND ALL EYES WILL BE FOCUSED ON THE TRACK OF HRCN FRANCES ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND ON APPROACH TO FL. ...INTERMOUNTAIN WEST... STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND ENHANCED BY STEEP LAPSE RATES/LOW STATIC STABILITY SHOULD PROMOTE TSTMS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS FROM NRN UT INTO WY AND SWRN/CNTRL MT. HOWEVER...LIMITED CAPE AOB 200 J/KG AND LI VALUES ONLY AROUND 0 TO MINUS 1 SHOULD CURB UPDRAFT INTENSITY DESPITE VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR. A FEW STORMS NEAR THE FRONT COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS OR PERHAPS SMALL HAIL BUT OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE ROCKIES APPEARS MINIMAL AT THIS TIME. ...NRN GREAT PLAINS... STRONG DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE WRN TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN VERY WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LEE/THERMALLY-INDUCED TROUGH FROM ERN CO NEWD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO BE QUITE DRY WITH DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS AND STEEP LAPSE RATES RESULTING IN AFTERNOON CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 200-800 J/KG. HIGH-BASED TSTMS MAY DEVELOP WITHIN THE LEE-TROUGH BY LATE IN THE DAY WITH THE GREATEST HAZARD BEING ISOLD TO WIDELY SCATTERED DOWNBURST WINDS. THIS ACTIVITY MAY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AFTER DARK AS COLD FRONT MERGES WITH THE LEE TROUGH FROM NERN WY INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS. THE BULK OF THIS CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME ELEVATED WITH TIME AS THE COLD FRONT UNDERCUTS THE UPDRAFTS. ..CARBIN.. 09/01/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 2 07:27:00 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 02 Sep 2004 02:27:00 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200409020728.i827S3L03102@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 020726 SWODY2 SPC AC 020723 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0223 AM CDT THU SEP 02 2004 VALID 031200Z - 041200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 S GBN 20 E PRC 15 W GCN 10 SSW SGU ENV BYI 10 NNW SUN S80 70 ENE 63S ...CONT... 10 SE INL GFK MHE BUB SNY 10 WSW DEN 25 SSE ELP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSE DRT ACT TXK 10 ENE UNO 10 S UIN MLI MKG 35 SE OSC ...CONT... 45 NNW YNG JKL ATL MCN AGS GSO 10 E CHO 10 ENE BWI 35 ESE DOV. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM EPM BML MSS. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...DAKOTAS... STRONG UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES ON FRIDAY AS HIGH AMPLITUDE FLOW PATTERN PERSISTS OVER THE WEST. SURFACE FRONT EXTENDING FROM ERN ND SSWWD ACROSS CENTRAL SD...NEB PANHANDLE AND SWWD INTO CO AND SRN UT WILL BE ORIENTED LARGELY PARALLEL TO THE DEEP LAYER SWLY FLOW ALOFT AND SHOULD MOVE LITTLE DURING THE DAY...WITH SMALL EWD PROGRESSION FORECAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DEEP WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER IS FORECAST AGAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING LAYER OF CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AROUND 700 MB LIKELY LIMITING STORMS IN THE SURFACE WARM SECTOR. PRIMARY CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND WEST OF SURFACE FRONT WHERE DYNAMIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH WILL ENHANCE LARGE SCALE ASCENT. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR STORM ORGANIZATION IN THE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS...INSTABILITY WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ELEVATED SUGGESTING ONLY LIMITED THREAT FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS. ...ERN FL... LATEST NHC GUIDANCE INDICATES HURRICANE FRANCES WILL CONTINUE WNWWD TOWARD FL ON DAY 2...WITH THE CIRCULATION CENTER REMAINING OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH 04/12Z. BASED ON THIS PROJECTION...THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THE OUTER BANDS MAY BEGIN TO AFFECT ERN PARTS OF THE PENINSULA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...GREATER THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL LIKELY OCCUR AFTER THIS PERIOD. ..WEISS.. 09/02/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 2 17:26:49 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 02 Sep 2004 12:26:49 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200409021727.i82HRmL20226@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 021725 SWODY2 SPC AC 021722 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1222 PM CDT THU SEP 02 2004 VALID 031200Z - 041200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW ELO 50 NW HIB 55 E FAR ATY 25 NNE BUB 10 WSW LBF 10 S SNY 30 E FCL 40 SSW DEN 35 NW LVS 45 SE ELP ...CONT... 80 S GBN 35 WNW PHX 50 ENE IGM 10 SSE SGU 45 S ENV 15 WSW BYI 30 S S80 70 ENE 63S. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSE DRT 10 WNW ACT 25 N TXK 45 SSW UNO 15 SSW STL 30 W PIA 30 SW MKE 35 NE MKG 35 SE OSC ...CONT... 30 WSW BUF 15 NE JHW 30 S JHW 30 SSW FKL 30 NE HTS 30 NNE TYS 15 WNW ATL 40 SSE ATL 35 E MCN 10 SSE AGS GSO 15 ENE CHO 20 NW DCA 20 WSW ILG 20 ENE ACY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM EPM BML MSS. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...DAKOTAS... A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE WRN UNITED STATES. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EWD WITH STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW. LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL SPREAD EWD INTO THE DAKOTAS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ON FRIDAY. AT THE SFC...A LOW IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS NCNTRL ND WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SSWWD TO NEAR THE BLACK HILLS. A GRADUAL MOISTENING IN THE LOW-LEVELS SHOULD OCCUR ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE LOW AND SPREADS SWD INTO NRN SD. SFC HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS. AND CONSIDERING THE AMOUNT OF VERTICAL SHEAR DUE TO THE STRONG FLOW ALOFT...STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AT THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS. THIS COMBINED WITH 500 MB TEMPS OF -12C AND 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 30 TO 40 KT MAY BE ENOUGH FOR HAIL AND MARGINAL DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. THE STORMS SHOULD FORM ALONG AND TO THE WEST OF THE SFC TROUGH ACROSS THE WRN DAKOTAS...GRADUALLY SPREADING NEWD IN THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. ANY MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AS INSTABILITY DECREASES DURING THE EVENING. ...ERN FL... HURRICANE FRANCES IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING SAN SALVADOR IN THE BAHAMAS. THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES IT WEST NORTHWESTWARD REACHING THE SE TO ECNTRL FL COAST ON SATURDAY MORNING. AS THE HURRICANE APPROACHES FL FRIDAY NIGHT...THE FAR OUTER BANDS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INLAND. A TORNADO THREAT MAY DEVELOP LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE STRONGER BANDS. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW UNIDIRECTIONAL LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILES THAT SHOULD KEEP ANY TORNADO THREAT MINIMAL. ..BROYLES.. 09/02/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Sep 3 17:29:04 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 03 Sep 2004 12:29:04 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200409031730.i83HTxG13002@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 031727 SWODY2 SPC AC 031724 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1224 PM CDT FRI SEP 03 2004 VALID 041200Z - 051200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW MIA 10 NNE FMY 20 NE SRQ 40 SSE CTY 45 ESE VLD 30 E AYS 35 S SAV. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW DRT 25 S UMN 10 NNE ALN 25 NNE BMI RFD 20 N DBQ 30 SSW ALO 25 SSW CNK 30 ESE LBL 25 SSE CVS 50 SE ELP ...CONT... YUM 60 NW GBN 50 SW GCN 25 ENE SGU 45 WNW MLF 15 SE ENV 25 NW MLD 20 WSW JAC 35 SSE COD 50 SW GCC 60 NW CDR 20 WSW PHP 35 SSW JMS 55 W RRT ...CONT... 45 NW ROC 40 SSW SLK 15 SSW PWM ...CONT... 20 NE NEL 30 NNW ILG 10 S CRW 55 NW CHA 10 E MEI 25 NNE BVE ...CONT... 15 ENE AQQ 35 NNE ABY 45 NNW AGS 20 NNE RDU 35 SSW WAL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF FL... ...FL... HURRICANE FRANCES IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN THE NWRN BAHAMA ISLANDS. THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO MOVE NWWD APPROACHING THE FL COAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON. RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE HURRICANE WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INLAND BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND ISOLATED MINI-SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER CELLS EMBEDDED IN THE BANDS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SLIGHTLY VEERED PROFILES JUST AHEAD OF THE HURRICANE IN THE COASTAL AREAS WITH STRONG 0-1 KM SHEAR VALUES. THE SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW TORNADOES ESPECIALLY WITH ROTATING STORMS THAT MOVE ONSHORE. THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL SOMETIME ON SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A DRAMATIC INCREASE IN THE TORNADO THREAT EXPECTED JUST AFTER LANDFALL IN THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE STORM. ...UPPER MS AND UPPER MO VALLEYS... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS TONIGHT REACHING MN AND ERN NEB ON SATURDAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT INCREASES AHEAD OF A WRN US UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. AS INSTABILITY INCREASES SATURDAY AFTERNOON...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AND MOVE SEWD ACROSS MN...ERN SD. A CAPPING INVERSION MAY WEAKEN ENOUGH ACROSS ERN NEB AND NW IA FOR ISOLATED STORMS. SFC DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE 60S F AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALLOWING ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE PRESENT ALOFT AND THIS MAY PRODUCE ENOUGH SHEAR FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ANY STORMS WITH SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD DIE QUICKLY EARLY SATURDAY EVENING AS INSTABILITY DECREASES ACROSS THE REGION. ..BROYLES.. 09/03/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Sep 4 07:40:05 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 04 Sep 2004 02:40:05 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200409040741.i847fOG12209@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 040739 SWODY2 SPC AC 040735 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0235 AM CDT SAT SEP 04 2004 VALID 051200Z - 061200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE GRI 25 WNW OTG 35 NE RWF 25 NE MSP 15 S EAU 35 W JLN 45 NE OKC 30 ESE GAG 25 ENE GRI. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N PBI 25 NNW PIE ...CONT... 30 ENE AQQ 35 SW ABY 30 NNE ABY 70 ESE MCN 15 SSE SAV. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SE YUM 45 SSE PHX SVC GDP 20 W BGS 60 W CSM DDC 50 E LAA 10 S LHX 10 WNW PUB DEN PIR 30 E RRT ...CONT... 45 SSE OSC 10 NNE BMG 15 NW MEM 10 N MCB 35 SSW HUM ...CONT... 35 SE MOB SEM 30 NE ATL 10 SE DAN 10 E ORF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NRN/CENTRAL FL INTO SRN GA... ...UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS... UPPER LOW OVER THE SRN GREAT BASIN IS FORECAST TO OPEN INTO A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND LIFT NEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOMORROW. PREFER THE SLOWER SPEED OF MOVEMENT DEPICTED BY THE ETA/UKMET/NGM/CMC MODELS COMPARED TO FASTER GFS...WHICH APPEARS TO ACCELERATE THE TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TOO RAPIDLY. IN RESPONSE TO THE EJECTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH...SURFACE COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL STATES WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND CENTRAL PLAINS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOW/MID 60S WILL PREVAIL AHEAD OF THE FRONT. GENERALLY MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.5 C/KM ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE FRONTAL ZONE AS COOLER 500 MB TEMPERATURES REMAIN WEST OF THE SURFACE FRONT...LIMITING MLCAPE TO 1000-1500 J/KG. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONT FROM SRN MN SSWWD INTO ERN KS AS DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT INCREASES IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE SWD EXTENT OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...WITH ETAKF MEMBERS OF THE SREF DEVELOPING CONVECTION SWD INTO TX BY 06/00Z. GIVEN THE WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED OVER THE SRN PLAINS IT APPEARS THAT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE MAY BE MORE LIMITED FROM CENTRAL OK SWD. AS THE UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSES EWD STRONGER MID LEVEL WINDS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY CONTRIBUTING TO SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO ENHANCE STORM ORGANIZATION. STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. ...FL INTO SRN GA... FRANCES IS FORECAST TO MOVE NWWD ACROSS CENTRAL FL TOMORROW CONTINUING ACROSS THE EXTREME NERN GULF COAST TOWARD TLH TOMORROW NIGHT ACCORDING TO NHC GUIDANCE. DESPITE WEAKENING OVER LAND...STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS AND ASSOCIATED VERTICAL SHEAR/HELICITY ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE NERN QUADRANT OF THE CIRCULATION. GIVEN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR SMALL SUPERCELLS TO DEVELOP...THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR A FEW TORNADOES TO DEVELOP OVER PART OF NRN AND CENTRAL FL DURING THE DAY...POSSIBLY SPREADING NWD INTO SRN GA AT NIGHT. ..WEISS/MEAD.. 09/04/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Sep 4 17:31:42 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 04 Sep 2004 12:31:42 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200409041733.i84HX0G11715@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 041730 SWODY2 SPC AC 041727 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1227 PM CDT SAT SEP 04 2004 VALID 051200Z - 061200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E AQQ 30 E TLH 30 SSW AYS 20 S SSI. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM OKC 45 NNE CSM 35 SW P28 40 SSW RSL 20 ESE GRI 25 NE FSD 40 N RWF 25 ESE STC 25 W EAU LSE 40 W DBQ 35 SW IRK 20 NNW JLN 30 ENE TUL 50 SSW TUL OKC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE MOB 10 WNW MGM 50 NW AND 10 SE DAN 10 E ORF ...CONT... 25 ESE APN 35 SSE SBN 35 NNW DYR 50 SSW GLH 15 S 7R4 ...CONT... 70 SE YUM 50 SSE PHX 35 NE DMN 15 WNW CNM 35 NNW MAF 50 S CDS 30 NW LTS 40 W GAG 45 ESE TAD PUB 20 NNE FCL 45 W BFF 60 S PHP 35 N 9V9 45 SSE FAR 40 W INL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS FL... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...FL... HURRICANE FRANCES IS EXPECTED TO COME ONSHORE IN CNTRL FL TONIGHT AND MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE PENINSULA SUNDAY. WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL WILL AFFECT MUCH OF FL WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE RISK WITH EMBEDDED CELLS WITHIN THE RAINBANDS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR SUNDAY ACROSS FL SHOW LONG HODOGRAPHS WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR. THIS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR EMBEDDED MINI-SUPERCELLS WITH A TORNADO POTENTIAL. TORNADOES WILL MOST LIKELY BE NEAR AND NORTH OF THE CENTER AND/OR WITH THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM AHEAD OF DRY AIR INTRUSIONS INTO THE HURRICANE'S CIRCULATION. THE TORNADO THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WRN HALF OF THE PENINSULA AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NWWD EVENTUALLY MOVING JUST OFFSHORE IN THE NE GULF OF MEXICO SUNDAY NIGHT. ...GREAT PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST... A WRN US UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE EWD TONIGHT AND SHOULD MOVE INTO THE GREAT PLAINS ON SUNDAY. STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL MOVE INTO ERN CO IN THE MORNING...SUPPORTING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE MTNS MOVING EWD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS BY MIDDAY ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WRN US TROUGH...WILL SLIDE EWD INTO WRN IA...ERN NEB AND CNTRL KS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MID TO UPPER 60S F SFC DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY SHOULD RESULT IN MLCAPE VALUES REACHING 1000 TO 1500 J/KG. STRONG ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL JET AND APPROACHING TROUGH WILL LIKELY TRIGGER WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW WITH GRADUAL TURNING ABOVE 850 MB....RESULTING IN ABOUT 35 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE. THE STRENGTH OF THE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND DEPTH OF THE UNIDIRECTIONAL LOW-LEVEL FLOW SUGGEST THE CONVECTION SHOULD QUICKLY ORGANIZE INTO A LINE WITH AN ISOLATED POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE AND/OR HAIL. THE LINE SHOULD CONTINUE EWD INTO THE INSTABILITY AXIS REACHING SRN MN...CNTRL IA AND ERN KS BY THE LATE EVENING HOURS. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE AIRMASS BECOMES OVERTURNED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL ZONE. ..BROYLES.. 09/04/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Sep 4 18:29:58 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 04 Sep 2004 13:29:58 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200409041831.i84IVFG00824@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 041829 SWODY2 SPC AC 041825 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0125 PM CDT SAT SEP 04 2004 VALID 051200Z - 061200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E AQQ 30 E TLH 30 SSW AYS 20 S SSI. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM OKC 45 NNE CSM 35 SW P28 40 SSW RSL 20 ESE GRI 25 NE FSD 40 N RWF 25 ESE STC 25 W EAU LSE 40 W DBQ 35 SW IRK 20 NNW JLN 30 ENE TUL 50 SSW TUL OKC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE MOB 10 WNW MGM 50 NW AND 10 SE DAN 10 E ORF ...CONT... 25 ESE APN 35 SSE SBN 35 NNW DYR 50 SSW GLH 15 S 7R4 ...CONT... 70 SE YUM 50 SSE PHX 35 NE DMN 15 WNW CNM 35 NNW MAF 50 S CDS 30 NW LTS 40 W GAG 45 ESE TAD PUB 20 NNE FCL 45 W BFF 60 S PHP 35 N 9V9 45 SSE FAR 40 W INL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS FL... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... CORRECTED FOR 5 % LINE ON PROBABILITY GRAPHIC ...FL... HURRICANE FRANCES IS EXPECTED TO COME ONSHORE IN CNTRL FL TONIGHT AND MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE PENINSULA SUNDAY. WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL WILL AFFECT MUCH OF FL WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE RISK WITH EMBEDDED CELLS WITHIN THE RAINBANDS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR SUNDAY ACROSS FL SHOW LONG HODOGRAPHS WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR. THIS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR EMBEDDED MINI-SUPERCELLS WITH A TORNADO POTENTIAL. TORNADOES WILL MOST LIKELY BE NEAR AND NORTH OF THE CENTER AND/OR WITH THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM AHEAD OF DRY AIR INTRUSIONS INTO THE HURRICANE'S CIRCULATION. THE TORNADO THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WRN HALF OF THE PENINSULA AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NWWD EVENTUALLY MOVING JUST OFFSHORE IN THE NE GULF OF MEXICO SUNDAY NIGHT. ...GREAT PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST... A WRN US UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE EWD TONIGHT AND SHOULD MOVE INTO THE GREAT PLAINS ON SUNDAY. STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL MOVE INTO ERN CO IN THE MORNING...SUPPORTING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE MTNS MOVING EWD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS BY MIDDAY ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WRN US TROUGH...WILL SLIDE EWD INTO WRN IA...ERN NEB AND CNTRL KS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MID TO UPPER 60S F SFC DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY SHOULD RESULT IN MLCAPE VALUES REACHING 1000 TO 1500 J/KG. STRONG ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL JET AND APPROACHING TROUGH WILL LIKELY TRIGGER WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW WITH GRADUAL TURNING ABOVE 850 MB....RESULTING IN ABOUT 35 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE. THE STRENGTH OF THE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND DEPTH OF THE UNIDIRECTIONAL LOW-LEVEL FLOW SUGGEST THE CONVECTION SHOULD QUICKLY ORGANIZE INTO A LINE WITH AN ISOLATED POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE AND/OR HAIL. THE LINE SHOULD CONTINUE EWD INTO THE INSTABILITY AXIS REACHING SRN MN...CNTRL IA AND ERN KS BY THE LATE EVENING HOURS. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE AIRMASS BECOMES OVERTURNED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL ZONE. ..BROYLES.. 09/04/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Sep 6 06:36:03 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 06 Sep 2004 01:36:03 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200409060637.i866bNG11808@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 060635 SWODY2 SPC AC 060631 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0131 AM CDT MON SEP 06 2004 VALID 071200Z - 081200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 W COT 30 SSE AUS 20 SSW TXK 40 ESE POF 30 NW DAY 75 E APN ...CONT... 25 ENE MSS 20 NE ALB 20 SSE BOS ...CONT... 35 S TLH 15 NNE CEW 30 SSW SEM 35 NNE TCL 15 NNW MSL 40 NNW TUP 20 NE GLH 35 NNE ESF 30 SSE LCH. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... COOL/DRY SURFACE AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE COUNTRY BETWEEN THE ROCKIES AND APPALACHIANS...AS SURFACE COLD FRONT SHIFTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...REMNANTS OF FRANCES WILL BE LIFTING NNEWD INTO OR JUST WEST OF THE SRN APPALACHIANS DURING THE PERIOD. ...SRN APPALACHIANS INTO THE SRN ATLANTIC... THOUGH FRANCES WILL HAVE WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY BY THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...LARGE AREA OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THIS REGION TUESDAY. THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EXTENSIVE PRECIPITATION/CLOUDS AND LIMITED INSTABILITY DURING THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...STRONG SHEAR PARAMETERS AND PRESENCE OF A VERY WARM AND MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER/LOW LCL HEIGHTS SUGGEST THE THREAT OF A FEW TORNADOES CAN NOT BE DISCOUNTED ATTM EVEN AS FAR EAST AS THE SRN ATLANTIC COAST. WILL OPT TO FORECAST ONLY LOW PROBABILITIES ATTM ...FOCUSING ON AN AREA EAST AND NORTH OF CURRENT OFFICIAL TRACK WHERE SHEAR WILL BE STRONGEST. HOWEVER...UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK MAY BE REQUIRED IN LATER OUTLOOKS OVER PORTIONS OF THIS REGION. ...ERN GREAT LAKES INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND... THOUGH THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD ACCOMPANY SURFACE COLD FRONT AND AREA OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT PRECEDING IT TUESDAY AFTERNOON...OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS LOW ATTM. DESPITE MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR...FORECAST SOUNDINGS YIELD SMALL LAPSE RATES AND ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY. ..EVANS.. 09/06/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Sep 6 17:27:10 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 06 Sep 2004 12:27:10 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200409061728.i86HSSG25526@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 061726 SWODY2 SPC AC 061722 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1222 PM CDT MON SEP 06 2004 VALID 071200Z - 081200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NE CAE 45 W CHS 45 WSW SAV 45 NNE MGR 45 SSW CSG 15 SSW ANB 35 NW RMG 55 E CHA 25 SSW AVL 10 WSW CLT 40 NE CAE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E MSS 30 NNW GFL 30 NE PSF 20 SSE BOS ...CONT... 45 NW LRD 50 SSE AUS 40 SSE GGG PBF PAH 20 NE IND 25 NNW DTW 110 E APN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW GPT 25 W LUL 45 NNE JAN 35 SSE GLH 30 NW HEZ 20 SSE BPT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM EXTREME ERN AL THROUGH CNTRL AND NRN GA AND WRN THROUGH CNTRL SC... ...ERN AL THROUGH GA AND SC... TROPICAL STORM FRANCES CONTINUES MOVING NWWD...BUT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN TO A MORE NLY DIRECTION LATER TODAY INTO TUESDAY. SEE THE LATEST DISCUSSIONS FROM NHC FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION. FRANCES WILL WEAKEN FURTHER AS IT MAKES LANDFALL...BUT CONSIDERABLE LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL PERSIST WITH THE STORM THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE CENTER MOVES NWD ALONG THE GA/AL BORDER. STRONGEST CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST E OF THE CENTER...AND ELY LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES N AND E OF THE CENTER WILL MAINTAIN AN INFLUX OF HIGH THETA-E/LOW LCL AIR INTO ERN AL THROUGH GA AND SC. POTENTIAL FOR DESTABILIZATION WILL EXIST DURING THE DAY...ESPECIALLY WHERE ANY BREAKS IN CLOUDS BETWEEN CONVECTIVE BANDS CAN OCCUR. HOWEVER...POOR LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT MLCAPE TO GENERALLY AOB 1000 J/KG. ISOLATED TORNADOES ASSOCIATED WITH LOW TOPPED SUPERCELLS EMBEDDED WITHIN CONVECTIVE RAINBANDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT...BUT ISOLATED STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS. ..DIAL.. 09/06/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Sep 7 06:31:27 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 07 Sep 2004 01:31:27 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200409070632.i876WhG04871@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 070629 SWODY2 SPC AC 070626 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0126 AM CDT TUE SEP 07 2004 VALID 081200Z - 091200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NW AQQ 45 SW MCN 25 ENE ATL 35 W CHA 50 SW LEX 25 WNW CMH 65 WNW ERI ...CONT... 50 NNW BML 30 WSW BHB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW SUX 25 NNE ANW 65 N PHP 25 WSW BIS 50 SSW GFK 20 SE AXN FRM 20 WNW SUX. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE U.S. WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED BY REMNANTS OF FRANCES AS IT LIFTS NWD ALONG AND JUST WEST OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. ELSEWHERE...LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO INHIBIT MUCH MOIST CONVECTION. AN EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER THE NRN PLAINS WHERE LOW LEVEL WAA MAY SUPPORT A CLUSTER OF ELEVATED CONVECTION...INCLUDING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...EARLY IN THE PERIOD. ...SRN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS EWD TO THE ATLANTIC COAST... GFS HAS BEEN MOST CONSISTENT OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS IN FORECASTING FRANCES IN THE 36-60 HR TIME FRAME...AND IS THE CLOSEST TO THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST BY NHC/HPC. EXPECT LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL REMAIN ENHANCED EAST OF REMNANT CIRCULATION CENTER WHERE GFS MAINTAINS 30-45 KT SLY H85 WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. GIVEN PRESENCE OF ABUNDANT MOISTURE OVER THE CAROLINAS ATTM...EXPECT LOWER TO MID 70F SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL EASILY BE CARRIED NWD INTO THE SRN MID ATLANTIC AS WINDS BACK TO A MORE SLY DIRECTION. THUS...COMBINATION OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND LOW LCL HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES. IF SUFFICIENT CLEARING/HEATING CAN OVERSPREAD THIS MOISTENING WARM SECTOR...AN INCREASE IN TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL OCCUR. WILL FORECAST LOW PROBABILITIES ATTM...THOUGH UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK MAY BE REQUIRED IN LATER OUTLOOKS. ..EVANS.. 09/07/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Sep 7 17:14:40 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 07 Sep 2004 12:14:40 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200409071715.i87HFsG23848@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 071714 SWODY2 SPC AC 071710 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1210 PM CDT TUE SEP 07 2004 VALID 081200Z - 091200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S CRE 30 ENE CLT 20 N LYH 10 WSW ILG 15 SE ACY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW SUX 25 NNE ANW 65 N PHP 25 WSW BIS 50 SSW GFK 20 SE AXN FRM 20 WNW SUX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ESE TLH 35 E MCN 15 NNW AHN 10 NE CHA 55 E BWG 40 ENE SDF 30 N DAY 40 NNE ERI 20 SE ART 25 NE 3B1 20 S HUL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE ERN CAROLINAS TO THE DELMARVA REGION... ...SYNOPSIS... CENTER OF WEAKENING TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRANCES WILL TRACK SLOWLY NNE ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS FROM GA TO WV ON WEDNESDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO PHASE WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE ERN GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY LATE IN THE PERIOD...EVENTUALLY BECOMING ABSORBED BY THE WLYS. ELSEWHERE...ZONAL FLOW WILL EXIST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST...AND A LARGE RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND GREAT BASIN. ...CAROLINAS/MID ATLANTIC... A BELT OF 40-50KT LOW THROUGH MID LEVEL FLOW WILL SPREAD NEWD FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO THE DELMARVA REGION TOMORROW WITHIN THE LARGE ERN SEMICIRCLE OF T.D. FRANCES. STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW OF TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS/VIRGINIA WHILE SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD PERSIST WITHIN CONFLUENCE BANDS ROTATING ENEWD ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS. WHILE OVERALL FLOW FIELD MAY BE A LITTLE WEAKER THAN TODAY GIVEN THE SLOW DEMISE OF FRANCES...FCST WIND PROFILES EXHIBIT STRONG DIRECTIONAL AND MODEST SPEED SHEAR IN THE LOWEST 1-2KM. ADDITIONALLY...STEADY SUPPLY OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER RH AND A LOW LCL ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL FURTHER ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL STORM ROTATION TO REACH THE SURFACE. THUS...ISOLD TO WIDELY SCATTERED TORNADOES EMBEDDED WITHIN RAIN/TSTM BANDS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM NERN SC TO THE DELMARVA AREA FROM EARLY IN THE DAY THROUGH EVENING. ..CARBIN.. 09/07/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 8 06:31:09 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 08 Sep 2004 01:31:09 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200409080632.i886WLG20263@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 080630 SWODY2 SPC AC 080626 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0126 AM CDT WED SEP 08 2004 VALID 091200Z - 101200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W CTY AYS 15 SW CAE 35 SSW ROA 25 NE CRW 25 NNE ERI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE INL 45 S FAR 30 SE MBG 35 ESE REJ 55 ESE MLS 35 NNW BIL 35 SE MQM 30 NE BOI 35 N 63S. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW CAG 45 E DRO 15 SE FLG 35 W BLH 10 N EDW 30 NNW BIH 35 WNW ELY 50 N PUC 25 WSW CAG. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... NRN STREAM WILL REMAIN ACTIVE OVER THE NRN U.S. WITH STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSING QUICKLY EWD ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES DURING THE PERIOD...WHILE REMNANTS OF FRANCES PHASES WITH NRN STREAM AND LIFTS NEWD INTO QUEBEC BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. IN ADDITION...WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD ROTATE AROUND SRN ROCKIES ANTICYCLONE AND SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE SRN GREAT BASIN/CENTRAL ROCKIES DURING THE DAY. ...NORTHEAST... THOUGH ETA AND GFS ARE IN SLIGHT DISAGREEMENT WITH SURFACE LOW PLACEMENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BOTH MAINTAIN STRONG SLY LOW LEVEL WINDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND EAST OF THE LOW TRACK. THIS WILL SUPPORT A VERY MOIST WARM SECTOR WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. DESPITE INCREASING SURFACE DEW POINTS...DESTABILIZATION WILL BE MODEST AT BEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITHIN WEAK LAPSE RATES AND LIMITED DIURNAL HEATING WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING MLCAPES BELOW 500 J/KG. HOWEVER... PRESENCE OF STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR /I.E. 30+ KT OF O-1 KM SHEAR/ WITHIN WARM SECTOR CONTAINING VERY HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER RH AND LOW LCLS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS CAN NOT BE DISCOUNTED DESPITE GENERAL WEAKENING OF FRANCES. WILL KEEP LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES FORECAST FOR NOW...THOUGH SLIGHT RISK MAY BE REQUIRED IN LATER OUTLOOKS. ...NRN PLAINS... SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED WEAK TROUGH/COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO ND THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES. DESPITE THE INCREASE IN LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SCARCE. SHOULD SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE OCCUR AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM...SHEAR AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH PRIMARY THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. GIVEN DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY...WILL OPT TO ONLY FORECAST LOW PROBABILITIES ATTM. ..EVANS.. 09/08/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 8 17:31:55 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 08 Sep 2004 12:31:55 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200409081733.i88HX6G23772@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 081730 SWODY2 SPC AC 081726 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1226 PM CDT WED SEP 08 2004 VALID 091200Z - 101200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W AQQ 45 NNW AYS 45 WSW SOP 20 SSE LYH 30 WNW AOO 30 N JHW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE DRO 55 ENE SOW 10 N PHX YUM 25 NNW RAL 50 NW NID 35 NNE TPH 45 NNE GJT 40 ENE DRO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W IWD 20 N MKT 20 NNE 9V9 40 NE 81V 50 ESE BIL 55 NNE SUN 35 N BOI 10 ENE PDT 35 NNE 63S. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...NERN U.S... REMNANT OF FRANCES WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY EXTRA-TROPICAL AS IT MOVES NNEWD INTO THE NERN U.S. BY EARLY THURSDAY. STRONG KINEMATIC AND SHEAR PROFILES WILL PERSIST E OF THE CENTER WHICH IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR LAKE ONTARIO BY MID-DAY TOMORROW. STRONGEST LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL REMAIN IN VICINITY OF WARM FRONT AS IT LIFTS NWD DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER...STRONG SHEAR /0-1 KM 30 KT/ WILL ALSO BE PRESENT IN THE WARM SECTOR. SEVERAL BANDS OF LOW TOPPED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE IN PROGRESS AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD OVER THE NERN U.S. AND NEW ENGLAND...AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE SPREADING NWD WITH TIME. POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WIND ASSOCIATED WITH LOW TOPPED SUPERCELLS AND NEWD MOVING BOWING SEGMENTS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE BANDS WILL EXIST IF SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION CAN OCCUR. HOWEVER...PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR IS EXPECTED TO BE MARGINAL INSTABILITY. UNLIKE TUESDAY...LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES WILL BE FROM COOLER WATERS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC AND NE U.S. COAST. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD CLOUDS SUGGEST INSTABILITY MAY REMAIN AOB 500 J/KG. AN UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK MAY BE NEEDED IN DAY 1 OUTLOOKS IF IT BECOMES APPARENT MORE INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. ...ERN MT AND ND... SURFACE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN WLY FLOW REGIME WILL ADVANCE EWD THROUGH ERN MT AND ND DURING THE AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LIMITED AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS AROUND 50 EXPECTED. PLUME OF WARM AIR IN THE 2-4 KM LAYER WILL ADVECT EWD OVER THE MEAGER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...RESULTING IN A FAIRLY STRONG CAP MUCH OF THE DAY. HOWEVER...SURFACE HEATING AND MIXING...AS WELL AS POTENTIAL FOR SOME MID LEVEL ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK IMPULSES ADVANCING EWD MAY WEAKEN CAP AND PROVIDE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR ISOLATED STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. SURFACE-6 KM SHEAR OF 35 TO 40 KT WITHIN THE STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT THREAT OF SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE. LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...MID LEVEL ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF MID LEVEL CONVECTION OVER PARTS OF ERN MT INTO ND. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO MN WITHIN STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME. GIVEN EXPECTED LIMITED INSTABILITY AND UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING STORM COVERAGE AND INITIATION...WILL KEEP ONLY LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME. ..DIAL.. 09/08/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Sep 10 07:18:23 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 10 Sep 2004 02:18:23 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200409100719.i8A7JkO28377@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 100717 SWODY2 SPC AC 100713 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0213 AM CDT FRI SEP 10 2004 VALID 111200Z - 121200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ESE GPT MEI RMG RDU 15 NNE HSE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 E TOL FWA BRL DSM MCW AUW 15 NNE MQT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW INL FAR JMS MOT 60 NNW MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NNW DEN TAD ROW ALM SAD PRC TRM PMD BIH U31 BPI RWL 10 NNW DEN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW HVR 3DU 4LW MFR 30 SSE EUG DLS EAT 45 NE 4OM. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...GREAT LAKES REGION... BAND OF FAST WESTERLIES WILL LIE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN UNITED STATES ON SATURDAY...WITH STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ETA/GFS SOLUTIONS AGREE ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF RATHER STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES DURING THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT OVER PARTS OF WI/MI. RELATIVELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL COMPENSATE FOR LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE....RESULTING IN MLCAPE VALUES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG IN THIS REGION. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS UPPER MI AND NORTHERN WI...WITH A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS IN STRONGER CELLS. MAIN UPPER DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER...LIKELY LIMITING AREAL COVERAGE OF SEVERE THREAT. THUS HAVE ONLY OUTLOOKED LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY OVER PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINOUS WEST...SOUTHEAST STATES...AND LATE SATURDAY NIGHT OVER PARTS OF ND/MN. NO ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE FORECAST IN THESE REGIONS ON DAY2. ..HART.. 09/10/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Sep 10 17:32:08 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 10 Sep 2004 12:32:08 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200409101733.i8AHXTO08277@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 101731 SWODY2 SPC AC 101727 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1227 PM CDT FRI SEP 10 2004 VALID 111200Z - 121200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ESE GPT MEI RMG RDU 15 NNE HSE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ENE MTC 30 S SBN BRL DSM 15 SW MCW AUW 115 NNW ANJ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW INL FAR JMS MOT 60 NNW MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NNW DEN TAD ROW ALM SAD PRC TRM PMD BIH U31 BPI RWL 10 NNW DEN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW HVR 3DU 4LW MFR 30 SSE EUG DLS EAT 45 NE 4OM. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... A PERTURBED AND PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NRN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY THIS WEEKEND. STRONG UPPER WAVE NOW OVER THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL TRANSLATE INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT AS A NEW SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS SEWD TOWARD THE PAC NW. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST WAVE WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VLY TONIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL REACH NRN LOWER MI-CNTRL WI-NEB LINE BY 00Z SUNDAY AND BE THE FOCUS FOR POSSIBLE TSTMS. ...NRN GREAT LAKES REGION... AS THE UPPER IMPULSE APPROACHES THE NRN GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON...LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR INCREASING CONVECTION. BELT OF 50-60 KTS H5 FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO 0-6KM SHEAR OF 45-50 KTS...SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS. MLCAPES APPROACH 1000-1500 J/KG...AS A PLUME OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ADVECT ATOP UPPER 50S DEW POINTS. STRONGEST H5 HEIGHT FALLS...HOWEVER...ARE LIKELY TO PASS NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. 09Z SREF SUGGESTS THAT ISOLD TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT...WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FROM NWRN ONTARIO INTO ERN UPPER MI SATURDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THAT STRONGEST SUPPORT WILL LIKELY BE COINCIDENT WITH WEAKER INSTABILITY...ONLY ISOLD RISKS OF DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL WILL EXIST OVER THESE AREAS. FARTHER SW ACROSS CNTRL WI...GIVEN WEAKER LARGE SCALE SUPPORT/CONVERGENCE...STRONG HEATING WILL BE NEEDED TO INITIATE TSTMS...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS NOT HIGH. ..RACY.. 09/10/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Sep 11 07:18:04 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 11 Sep 2004 02:18:04 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200409110719.i8B7JOO06716@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 110717 SWODY2 SPC AC 110713 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0213 AM CDT SAT SEP 11 2004 VALID 121200Z - 131200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSW TUS EED P38 EKO WMC 4LW RDM 45 S EPH 85 NW FCA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 NE DVL ABR DGW FCL COS RTN 4CR CNM SJT HDO 15 SSE LRD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE HUL ALB BFD CLE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE BPT SHV LIT BNA HKY 10 NE ILM. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...MT/ND... A STRONG TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON SUNDAY...PROMOTING SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER EASTERN MT/WESTERN DAKOTAS AND A STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ETA/GFS GUIDANCE AGREE THAT STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES AND SUBSTANTIAL UPPER FORCING WILL SPREAD INTO MT/ND BY EVENING. HOWEVER...LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP CAPE VALUES BELOW 1000 J/KG. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AND NEAR SURFACE LOW SUNDAY NIGHT. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A FEW STORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS OVER THIS REGION. HOWEVER...ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS APPEAR UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. ...FL... HURRICANE IVAN IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS WESTERN CUBA SUNDAY NIGHT. OUTER RAIN BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH SYSTEM MAY AFFECT FAR SOUTH FL AND THE KEYS OVERNIGHT...WITH A LOW RISK OF ISOLATED TORNADOES. ..HART.. 09/11/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Sep 11 17:17:22 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 11 Sep 2004 12:17:22 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200409111718.i8BHIeO07979@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 111716 SWODY2 SPC AC 111712 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1212 PM CDT SAT SEP 11 2004 VALID 121200Z - 131200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 N GFK 25 NE Y22 40 WSW RAP 15 WSW DEN 40 SSE SAF 20 NNE TCS 55 WNW SAD 30 NW BLH 30 E DRA 30 WSW U24 45 WSW MLD 30 NW WMC 50 N LMT 45 NE RDM 55 ESE EPH 40 NNE FCA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE HUL 35 W AUG 15 SSW SYR 20 WNW JHW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE GLS 30 SSE TXK 35 SW ARG 35 SSW SDF 30 N SSU 15 S CHO 25 SSE DAN 15 SSE CLT 45 N CAE 35 ENE FLO 20 SE EWN. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NRN-TIER OF THE COUNTRY ON SUNDAY. NEXT IN A SERIES OF STRONG JET STREAKS CURRENTLY OFF THE PAC NW COAST...WILL DIG SEWD INTO THE NRN ROCKIES BY EARLY MONDAY. BOTH THE GFS/ETA HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND DEEPER WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER THE PAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS...WITH THE GFS THE FASTEST. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK LOW WILL REMAIN OVER SD...SITUATED ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE NRN ROCKIES. ERN PORTION OF THIS FRONT WILL REDEVELOP NWD AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY INTO ONTARIO WHILE A NEW FRONT DROPS SEWD INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS BY SUNDAY EVENING. THE OFFICIAL TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER FORECAST HAS THE CENTER OF HRCN IVAN MOVING TO THE WRN TIP OF CUBA BY 12Z MONDAY...VERY LATE IN THE DAY 2 PERIOD. ...SWRN FL... SPIRAL RAIN BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH HRCN IVAN MAY BRUSH THE SWRN COAST OF FL VERY LATE IN THE DAY 2 PERIOD...09-12Z MONDAY. INCREASING LOW LEVEL SHEAR WITH THE APPROACH OF IVAN WILL LIKELY GIVE RISE TO ISOLD TORNADO/WATERSPOUT RISKS IN SWRN FL INCLUDING THE KEYS. MAIN IMPACT WILL OCCUR BEYOND THE DAY 2 PERIOD...HOWEVER. ...NRN HIGH PLAINS... GIVEN THE TRENDS OF A SLIGHTLY SLOWER MOVEMENT AND DEEPER CHARACTER OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PAST FEW ETA/GFS MODEL RUNS AND MINIMAL INSTABILITY NOTED ON THE 09Z SREF...PROSPECTS FOR SEVERE WEATHER APPEAR MINIMAL OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. 12Z GFS IS THE OUTLIER AS IT SUGGESTS A FASTER MOVEMENT OVER THE ETA/ETAKF. BEST CASE SCENARIO WILL BE FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD OVER THE NRN ROCKIES THAT MAY SPREAD DOWNSTREAM INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS BY 12Z MONDAY. EVEN THEN...MUCAPE APPEARS TO BE LESS THAN 500 J/KG AND RISKS OF HAIL/HIGH WINDS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE SUB-5 PERCENT PROBABILITY RANGE. ..RACY.. 09/11/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Sep 12 07:09:57 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 12 Sep 2004 02:09:57 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200409120711.i8C7BDO25113@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 120709 SWODY2 SPC AC 120705 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0205 AM CDT SUN SEP 12 2004 VALID 131200Z - 141200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ESE INL MSP 30 SSE SUX GRI 60 E ANW ATY 60 W RRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW HUM 35 NNW GPT 60 NW CEW BHM BNA 10 NE LEX JKL TYS AND CAE 20 SSE EWN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SW TUS GUP DRO RKS BPI IDA RDM 35 S AST ...CONT... 10 W IWD LSE CNK AMA HOB P07. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NORTHEAST NEB INTO WESTERN MN... ...NORTHERN PLAINS... UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ON MONDAY FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A DEEP SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS MONDAY MORNING...MOVING NORTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN ONTARIO BY EVENING. TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP INTO WESTERN MN/NORTHWEST IA/CENTRAL NEB...PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS /40-50 KNOTS AT 850MB/ AHEAD OF FRONT WILL MAINTAIN DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW/MID 60S IN THIS REGION. STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LEAD TO AN AXIS OF MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG FROM SOUTHERN NEB INTO WESTERN MN. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ALONG THIS ZONE WILL ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION AND POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY FROM EASTERN SD INTO WESTERN MN. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE INITIAL THREAT...WITH A POTENTIAL EVOLUTION INTO A SQUALL LINE MONDAY EVENING WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS. ..HART.. 09/12/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Sep 12 17:14:09 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 12 Sep 2004 12:14:09 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200409121715.i8CHFOO17319@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 121713 SWODY2 SPC AC 121709 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1209 PM CDT SUN SEP 12 2004 VALID 131200Z - 141200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 N ELO 35 SE MSP 30 ENE OMA 10 S EAR 60 E ANW ATY 20 WNW RRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 E ELO 10 WNW VOK 15 E LWD 30 NNW GAG 30 N ROW 35 SE DMN ...CONT... 40 WSW FHU 35 W SVC 15 WSW ABQ 50 ENE DRO 20 SSE GJT 15 S BYI 65 ESE BNO RDM 35 S AST. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WNW PSX 15 W LCH 50 NNW PNS 15 NNE 0A8 10 WNW TUP 35 SSW HUF 35 W LUK 45 E CRW 15 E BLF 20 WSW GSP CAE 20 SSE EWN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS AND THE UPPER MS VLY... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER TROUGH ENTERING THE PAC NW TODAY WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE EWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS ON MONDAY. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW...LOCATED OVER NCNTRL SD EARLY MONDAY MORNING...WILL MOVE NEWD INTO NWRN ONTARIO BY MONDAY NIGHT. TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL STRENGTHEN AND SWEEP SEWD INTO NWRN WI-IA-KS BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE TSTMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. ...ERN PLAINS INTO UPPER MS VLY... INCREASING SLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL MAINTAIN 60S DEW POINTS ACROSS THE ERN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VLY MONDAY AFTERNOON BENEATH STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY DURING PEAK HEATING. CINH IS APT TO REMAIN RATHER STRONG IN THE WARM SECTOR. BUT...AS STRONGER H5 HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH ACCELERATE EWD...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG/BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS CINH IS ERASED. VERTICAL SHEAR IN THE LOWEST 6 KM WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. HOWEVER...GIVEN 2-6KM SHEAR VECTORS ORIENTED NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE INITIATING BOUNDARY AND THE MAGNITUDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING... RAPID EVOLUTION INTO LINE SEGMENTS WILL BE LIKELY. RISKS OF DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGER STORMS... ESPECIALLY FROM EXTREME NERN NEB INTO WRN MN LATE IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EWD INTO THE UPPER MS VLY LATE MONDAY NIGHT. TSTMS MAY BECOME MORE ELEVATED WITH TIME...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SRN END OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS NEB AND IA WHERE 50 KT SLY LLJ BLOWS NORMAL TO THE FRONT. THUS...WHILE ACTIVITY MOVING EWD INTO THE UPPER MS VLY LIKELY WEAKENS WITH TIME OWING TO DIURNAL COOLING...ISOLD LARGE HAIL MAY CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT MOST OF THE NIGHT FARTHER SW WHERE MUCAPES WILL REMAIN AROUND 1200 J/KG. ..RACY.. 09/12/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Sep 13 07:20:55 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 13 Sep 2004 02:20:55 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200409130722.i8D7M7O16936@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 130719 SWODY2 SPC AC 130715 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0215 AM CDT MON SEP 13 2004 VALID 141200Z - 151200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM LWD CNK EAR YKN 10 WSW EAU VOK LNR LWD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S LRD CLL CBM HSV SDF JXN GRR 35 S MKE UIN OJC GCK 40 NE LAA DEN LAR 50 ESE DGW 60 NE DGW WRL JAC 60 SSW 27U S80 30 NE 63S. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 N OLF DIK 50 NE MBG FAR 20 W INL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNW JHW DUJ EKN TRI 10 NW SPA 10 SE SOP 25 ESE ECG. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM EASTERN NEB ACROSS IA INTO WESTERN WI... ...MIDWEST STATES... BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL ROTATE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY ON TUESDAY...WITH MAIN SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING FROM UPPER MI/WI INTO WESTERN KS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE REINFORCED OVER MN/IA BY OUTFLOW FROM OVERNIGHT DAY1 CONVECTION. STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE PRESENT AHEAD OF FRONT FROM EASTERN KS INTO SOUTHERN WI. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000 J/KG. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES TO SUPPORT A RISK OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS...AND PERHAPS SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL SHEAR FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES. STORMS ARE LIKELY TO ORGANIZE INTO AN MCS AND SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD ALONG BOUNDARY INTO WESTERN WI DURING THE EVENING. ...WESTERN KS/NEB/SD... ETA/GFS SOLUTIONS ARE SIMILAR IN SHOWING THE MAIN SURFACE FRONT FROM EASTERN NEB INTO WESTERN KS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF NEB/SD. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AN AXIS OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR OVER THIS REGION...WHERE STRONG DAYTIME HEATING IS EXPECTED. STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT...AND APPROACH OF MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHOULD HELP IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON OVER EASTERN WY/NORTHEAST CO. THESE STORMS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD ALONG THE THETA-E AXIS...WITH A RISK OF ISOLATED HAIL OR GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS IN STRONGER CELLS. WILL ONLY OUTLOOK LOW PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME DUE TO WEAK FORECAST INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...THIS AREA MAY REQUIRE AN UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK IN LATER UPDATES IF GREATER INSTABILITY APPEARS MORE LIKELY. ..HART.. 09/13/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Sep 13 17:35:30 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 13 Sep 2004 12:35:30 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200409131736.i8DHaeO21104@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 131733 SWODY2 SPC AC 131729 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1229 PM CDT MON SEP 13 2004 VALID 141200Z - 151200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM OFK MKT EAU VOK LNR LWD FNB BIE 30 WSW OLU OFK. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MHN LBF MCK 45 NNW GLD AKO 35 E FCL 35 WSW BFF CDR 50 NW MHN MHN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE APN MKE RFD MLI IRK MKC 40 S RSL 45 NNE LAA LIC DEN FCL CYS 45 NNW BFF 60 WNW CDR WRL JAC 80 WSW 27U LWS GEG 50 N 63S ...CONT... 65 NNE ISN P24 BIS ABR ATY AXN HIB 45 N ELO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SW HUM HUM MSY 65 SSW SEM TOI AUO 35 NW RMG CSV 45 NW TRI DAN 30 NE ECG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE DRT TPL 60 SW TYR LFK BPT 30 E GLS. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ERN NEB TO WRN WI... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN ALOFT WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY BROAD BELT OF CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND W-CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH. ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM CURRENT POSITION OVER ERN WA/ID THROUGH BASE OF MEAN TROUGH EARLY IN PERIOD...THEN DEAMPLIFYING AND EJECTING NEWD ACROSS NRN PLAINS AS UPSTREAM PERTURBATION DIGS SEWD TOWARD WY. MEANWHILE...UPPER LOW PRESENTLY INDICATED ON MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER TN VALLEY REGION IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NEWD ALONG WRN EDGE OF APPALACHIANS INTO WRN NY DAY-2. AT SFC -- DIFFUSE ASSORTMENT OF BOUNDARIES NOW ANALYZED ACROSS NRN PLAINS MASKS A SYNOPTIC FRONTAL ZONE THAT SHOULD SHARPEN IN DEFINITION WITH TIME...EXTENDING FROM SERN MN ACROSS SERN NEB THEN WWD INTO NERN CO BY 15/00Z. DRYLINE SHOULD EXTEND SWD FROM ERN CO ACROSS WRN TX PANHANDLE TO LOWER PECOS VALLEY REGION...REMAINING CAPPED. MEANWHILE IVAN -- CURRENTLY CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE OVER NW CARIBBEAN -- IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE FACTOR IN GULF COAST TORNADO POTENTIAL UNTIL AT LEAST EARLY DAY 3 BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE FROM NHC REGARDING WIND DISTRIBUTION AND FCST TRACK. ...ERN NE ACROSS UPPER MS VALLEY... SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE AFTERNOON INVOF SFC FRONTAL ZONE FROM ERN NEB NEWD ACROSS WRN WI. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE AND A FEW TORNADOES MAY ALSO OCCUR. AMBIENT SFC DEW POINTS UPPER 50S/LOW 60S F ARE EXPECTED AT BEGINNING OF PERIOD...HOWEVER DIURNAL EVAPOTRANSPIRATIVE PROCESSES SHOULD BOOST SFC DEW POINTS INTO MID-UPPER 60S ONCE AGAIN OVER SOME PORTIONS MO VALLEY EWD ACROSS IA...IN SHALLOW NEAR-SFC LAYER. THIS PLUS DIURNAL HEATING WILL BOOST MLCAPES TO 2000-2500 J/KG RANGE MID-LATE AFTERNOON...WEAKENING CAP IN FRONTAL/CONVERGENCE ZONE. LARGE/LOOPING LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND 35-45 KT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR INDICATE SUPERCELL POTENTIAL...HOWEVER...WITH MIDLEVEL AND MEAN FLOW VECTORS ORIENTED NEARLY PARALLEL TO FORCING BOUNDARY...STORMS MAY LINE OUT RATHER QUICKLY. INCREASINGLY MOIST/50-60 KT SWLY LLJ MAY SUPPORT MCS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PORTIONS IA/WI AFTER DARK. ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER WRN PORTIONS OUTLOOK AREA MID-LATE AFTERNOON WITH LARGE HAIL MAIN THREAT AND DAMAGING WIND ALSO POSSIBLE. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST INTO LATE EVENING ACROSS WRN NEB...PRODUCING HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS. ELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW COMPONENT SHOULD DEVELOP BEHIND SFC FRONT ACROSS THIS AREA...ADVECTING MOISTURE UPSLOPE AND COMBINING WITH INSOLATION TO DESTABILIZE AIR MASS FAVORABLY BY LATE AFTERNOON. VERTICAL SHEAR IS FCST TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT DAY ACROSS PORTIONS WRN NEB...NERN CO AND PERHAPS EXTREME SERN WY AS UPPER TROUGH APCHS...BECOMING SUITABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH 0-6 KM AGL SHEARS 50-70 KT PROGGED NEB PANHANDLE/NERN CO. 8-9 DEG C MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SFC DEW POINTS LOW-MID 50S F WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE 500-1000 J/KG. ..EDWARDS.. 09/13/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Sep 14 07:21:17 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 14 Sep 2004 02:21:17 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200409140722.i8E7MQO27151@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 140720 SWODY2 SPC AC 140716 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0216 AM CDT TUE SEP 14 2004 VALID 151200Z - 161200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SW HUM MCB TCL AUO ABY 30 SE TLH. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM APN 10 NE GRR 35 S MKE LNR RHI 30 SE CMX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE LCH GLH LIT MLC END SLN OMA FSD BRD 30 NNW ELO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E TOL 10 SSW MIE SDF JKL HKY GSO SHD 10 SSW AOO ELM MSV 25 NE NEL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF WI/MI... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES... ...WESTERN GREAT LAKES... STRONG UPPER TROUGH NOW DIGGING INTO THE NORTHWEST UNITED STATES WILL TRACK RAPIDLY ACROSS THE ROCKIES ON TUESDAY...AND INTO THE PLAINS STATES ON WEDNESDAY. ETA/GFS GUIDANCE SHOW A RATHER DEEP SURFACE LOW TRACKING FROM IA INTO LAKE SUPERIOR DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EASTWARD INTO PARTS OF WI/MI DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. STRONG DAYTIME HEATING IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL NOT BE VERY STEEP. AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES SHOULD BE AROUND 1000 J/KG. STRONG UPPER FORCING AND CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT APPEAR LIKELY TO ORGANIZE A FAST MOVING SQUALL LINE OVER EASTERN WI/WESTERN MI. DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED/SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE COLD FRONT FROM SOUTHERN WI INTO MO...UPPER FORCING WILL BE WEAKER. NEVERTHELESS...MLCAPE VALUES OVER 1000 J/KG MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS. ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED IN THIS REGION. ...CENTRAL GULF COAST... HURRICANE IVAN IS FORECAST TO MOVE ASHORE NEAR MOB WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE SIZE AND STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM...FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY EXTEND INLAND INTO CENTRAL AL OVERNIGHT. ..HART.. 09/14/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Sep 14 17:37:00 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 14 Sep 2004 12:37:00 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200409141738.i8EHc7d26686@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 141735 SWODY2 SPC AC 141731 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1231 PM CDT TUE SEP 14 2004 VALID 151200Z - 161200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSE MOB MOB 45 SE MEI TOI 25 ENE MAI 25 S TLH. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM OSC MBS LAN LAF DNV CMI DEC UIN 25 ESE OTM CID MQT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SW HUM HEZ 60 NE PBF JBR CGI MDH 20 SE BLV 60 ESE VIH UNO 45 NW TXK ACT DRT 40 ESE P07 35 E FST MAF P28 HUT 85 N CMX ...CONT... 35 ENE TOL FDY SDF BWG BNA 55 NNE HSV CHA TRI BKW ELM BGM 30 SW MSV DOV WAL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS MI/IL AND ERN IA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS FL PANHANDLE AND SRN AL... ...SYNOPSIS... IN MID/UPPER LEVELS...NRN STREAM PATTERN IS FCST TO DEAMPLIFY THROUGHOUT PERIOD...EVOLVING TOWARD REGIME OF ZONAL TO WEAKLY CYCLONIC FLOW FROM PACIFIC NW TO GREAT LAKES. SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER NRN ROCKIES -- IS EXPECTED TO DIG ESEWD ACROSS NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS DAY-1...THEN EJECT NEWD ACROSS UPPER MS VALLEY AND LS/UPPER MI DAY-2. BY BEGINNING OF PERIOD THIS WILL RESULT IN CYCLOGENESIS INVOF WRN IA -- ALONG NE-SW ORIENTED FRONTAL ZONE. COLD FRONT THEN SHOULD SWEEP SEWD ACROSS SRN HIGH PLAINS AND MUCH OF MO/OK...WHILE MOVING EWD OVER MOST OF MI. ...GREAT LAKES... SCATTERED TSTMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING AFTERNOON INVOF FRONTAL ZONE MOVING EWD ACROSS AREA...WITH DAMAGING WIND MAIN THREAT...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE. KINEMATIC FIELDS AND FRONTAL FORCING FAVOR DEVELOPMENT OF SQUALL LINE WITH LEWP/BOW DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE. PRIMARY UNCERTAINTIES INVOLVE POTENTIAL EFFECTS OF MCS WHICH MAY BE ONGOING AT BEGINNING OF PERIOD OVER PORTIONS UPPER MS VALLEY REGION...MOVING NEWD TOWARD LS AND/OR NRN LM AREA. THIS COULD STABILIZE PORTIONS OF WI BUT ALSO PRODUCE BOUNDARIES ACTING AS FOCI FOR LATER ACTIVITY. SFC DEW POINTS MID 50S TO MID 60S F SHOULD OFFSET WEAK MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES TO YIELD MLCAPES 1000-1500 J/KG BY MIDAFTERNOON...IN ENVIRONMENT OF NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP-LAYER FLOWS AND AROUND 20-35 KT 0-6 KM SHEARS. ALTHOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND TOTAL BUOYANCY SHOULD GENERALLY INCREASE WITH SWWD EXTENT AHEAD OF FRONTAL ZONE...ORGANIZED SEVERE PROBABILITIES LESSEN BECAUSE OF WEAKENING OF BOTH DEEP-LAYER WIND/SHEAR FIELDS AND OF LARGE SCALE FORCING. ...E-CENTRAL GULF COASTAL PLAIN... NEAR END OF PERIOD...CENTER OF HURRICANE IVAN MAY STRIKE GULF COAST INVOF MS/AL BORDER...HOWEVER ITS OUTER BANDS AND WIND FIELDS WILL AFFECT BROAD ADJOINING AREA OF COAST FOR MUCH OF LATTER HALF OF PERIOD...BASED ON LATEST NHC TRACK/WIND FIELD FCSTS. GREATEST TORNADO PROBABILITIES WILL BE IN RIGHT-FRONT/NERN QUADRANT OF NWD-MOVING MATURE HURRICANE -- WHICH IS DOWNSHEAR WITH RESPECT TO DEEP-TROPOSPHERIC WINDS COMPARED TO NHC PROJECTED SYSTEM TRACK. WITHIN THAT SECTOR...MESOSCALE INFLUENCES -- I.E. SUBTLE POCKETS OF DIFFERENTIAL DIURNAL HEATING LEADING TO WEAK BAROCLINIC BOUNDARIES NEAR SYSTEM PERIPHERY -- COULD BE IMPORTANT FACTOR IN CONCENTRATING TORNADO POTENTIAL...BUT IT IS TOO SOON TO BE MORE PRECISE THEN PRESENT PROBABILITIES. ..EDWARDS.. 09/14/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 15 07:29:11 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 15 Sep 2004 02:29:11 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200409150730.i8F7UGd01644@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 150727 SWODY2 SPC AC 150722 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0222 AM CDT WED SEP 15 2004 VALID 161200Z - 171200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE GPT LUL 10 NW HSV CHA AHN MCN 10 N AQQ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM RWL FCL TAD CVS ROW ONM GNT FMN U17 U24 SLC RKS RWL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE CMX 25 N EAU 25 WSW STC 25 N JMS 70 NE MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SW GLS LFK TXK UNO DNV JXN 60 SE OSC ...CONT... EFK EEN JFK. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE GULF COAST REGION... ...MS/AL/GA... ACCORDING TO LATEST NHC GUIDANCE...HURRICANE IVAN WILL MAKE LANDFALL THURSDAY MORNING NEAR MOB. THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN TRACK SLOWLY NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL AL. VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS AROUND THE SYSTEM...COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WELL NORTH AND EAST OF EYE...WILL PROMOTE A RISK OF ISOLATED TROPICAL TORNADOES ACROSS PARTS OF EXTREME EASTERN MS...MUCH OF AL...AND WESTERN GA ON THURSDAY. ...OH/PA/NY... STRONG...FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO QUEBEC ON DAY2. THE MAIN SURFACE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SWEEP ACROSS OH AND INTO WESTERN NY/PA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ETA/GFS SOLUTIONS BOTH SUGGEST A THREAT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS IN THIS REGION...IF SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY COULD DEVELOP. HOWEVER...MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES GENERALLY BELOW 1000 J/KG. WILL OUTLOOK ONLY LOW PROBABILITIES FOR THIS REGION AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL MONITOR IN LATER OUTLOOKS FOR THE POTENTIAL OF STRONGER DESTABILIZATION. ..HART.. 09/15/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 15 17:22:28 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 15 Sep 2004 12:22:28 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200409151723.i8FHNVd06957@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 151720 SWODY2 SPC AC 151716 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1216 PM CDT WED SEP 15 2004 VALID 161200Z - 171200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW PNS 45 NNE MOB 30 ENE MEI 40 N TCL HSV CHA AHN MCN 20 SE AQQ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM FCL DEN COS PUB TAD TCC 50 SW CVS ROW ALM TCS GNT CEZ GJT CAG FCL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ENE CMX 30 NW RHI 50 ENE MSP AXN JMS 90 NE MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S BVE BTR HEZ GLH MEM 30 E JBR UNO TBN 40 NE COU 55 SE OSC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM EFK LEB BAF BDR JFK NEL DOV BWI EKN CRW 30 E 5I3 35 SW PSK 30 ESE ECG. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS AL...GA...FL PANHANDLE... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER AIR PATTERN OVER CONUS IS DOMINATED BY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER MID MO VALLEY REGION -- AND BY HURRICANE IVAN IN N-CENTRAL GULF. UPPER MIDWEST TROUGH SHOULD LIFT NEWD ACROSS NRN ONT AND AWAY FROM GREAT LAKES REGION DURING FCST PERIOD...AS NRN STREAM FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL IN ITS WAKE FROM PACIFIC NW TO GREAT LAKES. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW IS ANALYZED OVER SRN MN ATTM...AND ALSO WILL EJECT NEWD OVER ONT...BECOMING OCCLUDED AND VERTICALLY STACKED WITH UPPER SYSTEM. MEANWHILE SFC COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE EWD ACROSS GREAT LAKES REGION...LOSING DEFINITION AS UPPER SUPPORT EJECTS AWAY AND AS LOW LEVEL FLOW WEAKENS ON BOTH SIDES. FRONTOLYSIS ALSO EXPECTED FARTHER S AS LOW LEVEL FLOW RESPONDS TO INLAND PENETRATION OF IVAN. ...SERN CONUS... EYE OF IVAN IS FCST TO STRIKE INVOF MOB BAY NEAR OR SHORTLY BEFORE BEGINNING OF PERIOD BASED ON LATEST TRACK GUIDANCE FROM NHC. THIS SYSTEM IS ALSO FCST TO REMAIN CHARACTERIZED BY A LARGE WIND ENVELOPE. AS SUCH EXPECT LOW LEVEL KINEMATIC PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR MINI-SUPERCELLS TO SPREAD A CONSIDERABLE DISTANCE FROM CENTER OVER FAVORED SECTOR -- WHICH IN THIS CASE WOULD BE NERN SEMICIRCLE GIVEN SYSTEM-RELATIVE AMBIENT SHEARS. EVEN AS SFC CIRCULATION BEGINS TO WEAKEN...LOW-MIDLEVEL WINDS ABOVE SFC WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY INTENSE -- MAINTAINING AND IN SOME CASES INCREASING NET VERTICAL SHEAR THROUGHOUT PERIOD. ALTHOUGH TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ANY TIME THROUGH DAY-2...THERE MAY BE A DIURNAL MAX IN THEIR OCCURRENCE...ESPECIALLY IN OUTER BANDS WHERE DISTINCT CONVERGENCE MAXIMA CAN DEVELOP. ANY SUBTLE MESOSCALE AREAS OF DIFFERENTIAL/DIABATIC HEATING WOULD BOTH ENHANCE CAPE AND INTRODUCE SOME BAROCLINICITY...ENHANCING STORM ROTATION AND TORNADO POTENTIAL IN MORE PRECISE CORRIDORS THAN CAN BE RESOLVED THIS FAR IN ADVANCE. ...NERN CONUS... MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST PERSISTENCE OF NE-SW ORIENTED CONVECTIVE BAND ALONG/AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT THROUGH EARLY PERIOD...AND PERHAPS ADDITIONAL ASSOCIATED DEVELOPMENT LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. DIURNAL HEATING AND 60S F SFC DEW POINTS SHOULD OVERCOME WEAK MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ENOUGH TO YIELD MLCAPES AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG...AMIDST NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP-LAYER WIND PROFILES. NEGATIVE FACTORS INCLUDE WEAKENING OF BOTH LOW LEVEL FRONTAL FORCING AND MIDLEVEL LARGE SCALE ASCENT OVER THIS AREA...AS WELL AS WEAK-MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEARS OF AROUND 25 KT. A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG GUSTS...HOWEVER ORGANIZED SEVERE PROBABILITIES ARE NOT LARGE ENOUGH TO COMPEL CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK ATTM. ..EDWARDS.. 09/15/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 16 07:31:38 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 16 Sep 2004 02:31:38 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200409160732.i8G7Wdd19276@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 160730 SWODY2 SPC AC 160726 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0226 AM CDT THU SEP 16 2004 VALID 171200Z - 181200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CHA HSS 50 WNW GSO SOP 45 NW CHS 50 NNE AYS ABY TOI 0A8 HSV CHA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 WSW TUS GBN GCN FMN LVS ROW GDP 70 SW GDP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW CTB 15 WNW MSO 25 ENE BKE 30 N LMT 45 SSW OTH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM VOK IRK OJC CNK BUB BKX AXN 25 E ELO RHI VOK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 N MLB FMY ...CONT... 10 NE GPT LUL UOX OWB 10 NW CMH PIT POU 10 SSW BOS. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF AL/GA AND THE CAROLINAS... REMNANTS OF HURRICANE IVAN WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES ON FRIDAY...WITH BAND OF STRONGER MID LEVEL WESTERLIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES. IT APPEARS THE ONLY ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT ON DAY2 WILL EXIST WITH THE TROPICAL SYSTEM OVER PARTS OF AL/GA AND THE CAROLINAS. ...AL/GA/SC/NC... NHC AND MODEL GUIDANCE DRIFT THE CENTER OF IVAN NORTHWARD INTO NORTHERN AL ON FRIDAY. A VERY MOIST AIRMASS SHOULD BE IN PLACE AS FAR EAST AS THE CAROLINAS. CONTINUED LARGE RADIUS OF STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR ISOLATED TROPICAL TORNADOES FROM CENTER OF CIRCULATION INTO THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS. ..HART.. 09/16/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 16 17:11:36 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 16 Sep 2004 12:11:36 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200409161712.i8GHCad13437@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 161710 SWODY2 SPC AC 161706 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1206 PM CDT THU SEP 16 2004 VALID 171200Z - 181200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW TYS TRI 25 NW GSO 15 E RDU 30 S FAY 40 NNW SSI 30 WNW AYS 20 NW ABY 10 SSW LGC 20 N RMG 35 SSW TYS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW CTB 15 WNW MSO 25 ENE BKE 30 N LMT 45 SSW OTH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNW ELO BRD 25 S STC 25 E MKT 35 SW ALO 40 S IRK 25 SSW OJC CNK BBW 30 W BKX 55 SSE FAR 75 N GFK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 N MLB FMY ...CONT... 10 NE GPT LUL UOX OWB 10 ENE CAK 15 ENE ELM BML 10 NNE CAR. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SERN CONUS... ...SYNOPSIS... MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE REMNANTS OF IVAN...FORECAST OVER SERN TN / NERN AL / NWRN GA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. LOW IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EWD INTO THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE DAY...ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. ELSEWHERE...FAIRLY ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY WITH TIME AS STRONG UPPER LOW OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST MOVES SEWD TOWARD THE PAC NW. THIS WILL RESULT IN HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE WEST AND RISES DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD. ...THE SOUTHEAST... LARGE AREA OF LIMITED INSTABILITY BUT FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS FORECAST ACROSS GA / THE CAROLINAS AND ADJACENT AREAS THIS PERIOD -- WITHIN NRN AND ERN QUADRANTS OF IVAN'S CIRCULATION. VERY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS AND 35 TO 50 KT FLOW PERSISTING AT LOWER LEVELS ACCORDING TO LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A CONTINUED THREAT FOR MINI SUPERCELLS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH W OF THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS LOW MOVES EWD...BUT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS PARTS OF GA AND THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. ..GOSS.. 09/16/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Sep 17 07:33:14 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 17 Sep 2004 02:33:14 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200409170734.i8H7YPd23971@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 170731 SWODY2 SPC AC 170727 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0227 AM CDT FRI SEP 17 2004 VALID 181200Z - 191200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ENE CZZ 20 SW LAS 25 WNW MLF 25 SSW SLC 55 NNE ENV 45 SE BAM 15 NNE TVL 25 NW SVE 30 ESE 4LW 55 S BKE 30 NNE S80 55 NNW FCA ...CONT... 70 NW ISN 40 ENE BIL 30 N WRL 25 N CPR 50 WNW BFF AKO 50 NNE CAO 50 N ROW 75 SSW GDP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE CRE 25 WNW FLO 15 SW HKY SSU 35 NW BWI 15 E NEL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW FMY 30 SSE VRB. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... BROAD UPPER TROUGH NOW OVER THE GULF OF AK/NE PACIFIC EXPECTED AMPLIFY DURING THE NEXT 48 HRS AS UPSTREAM RIDGE PROGRESSES E TO THE ALEUTIANS AND DOWNSTREAM RIDGE BUILDS N ACROSS THE PLAINS/MS VLY. IN THE EAST...PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE REMNANTS OF IVAN. THE SYSTEM SHOULD BECOME AT LEAST TEMPORARILY ABSORBED INTO THE WLYS LATER TODAY. BUT RISING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE CNTRL U.S. ON SATURDAY SUGGEST THAT SYSTEM WILL BE LEFT BEHIND OVER THE SRN VA/NC AREA LATER IN THE DAY TWO PERIOD AS THE WLYS LIFT NEWD INTO NRN NEW ECG. ...NC/VA... A LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST OVER PARTS OF CNTRL/ERN VA AND NC ON SATURDAY...WHERE WEAK CONVERGENCE AND FAIRLY RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE /AVERAGE SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70/ WILL LIKELY PERSIST INVOF REMNANT CIRCULATION OF IVAN. BUT AXIS OF RICHEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE /DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S/ WILL LIKELY HAVE BEEN SHUNTED EWD OFF THE NC/SE VA CST BY THAT TIME. IN ADDITION...MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH RESIDUAL WARM CORE SYSTEM ALOFT WILL BE RELATIVELY WARM /AROUND MINUS 7 C AT 500 MB/. THUS...THE POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED SEVERE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LIMITED. ...WRN STATES... MID LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADING NNE INTO PARTS OF AZ AND ADJACENT AREAS OF THE SWRN U.S. FROM T.S. JEANNE SHOULD INCREASE POTENTIAL FOR DIURNALLY ENHANCED STORMS OVER REGION ON SATURDAY. ABSENCE OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND WEAKENING OF LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AS A RESULT OF INCREASED CLOUDINESS SHOULD PRECLUDE MORE THAN AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WITH ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM. FARTHER N...A BAND OR TWO OF FRONTAL AND/OR POST FRONTAL STORMS MAY ACCOMPANY COLD FRONT OVER THE NRN GRT BASIN. WITH MAIN UPPER TROUGH LIKELY TO DEEPEN OFF THE CA CST DURING THIS PERIOD...EXPECT THAT LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT...AND ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH THE FRONTAL STORMS...WILL REMAIN LIMITED. ..CORFIDI.. 09/17/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Sep 17 07:49:50 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 17 Sep 2004 02:49:50 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200409170750.i8H7oqd28898@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 170748 SWODY2 SPC AC 170744 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0244 AM CDT FRI SEP 17 2004 VALID 181200Z - 191200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ENE CZZ 20 SW LAS 25 WNW MLF 25 SSW SLC 55 NNE ENV 45 SE BAM 15 NNE TVL 25 NW SVE 30 ESE 4LW 55 S BKE 30 NNE S80 55 NNW FCA ...CONT... 70 NW ISN 40 ENE BIL 30 N WRL 25 N CPR 50 WNW BFF AKO 50 NNE CAO 50 N ROW 75 SSW GDP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE CRE 25 WNW FLO 15 SW HKY SSU 35 NW BWI 15 E NEL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW FMY 30 SSE VRB. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... BROAD UPPER TROUGH NOW OVER THE GULF OF AK/NE PACIFIC EXPECTED AMPLIFY DURING THE NEXT 48 HRS AS UPSTREAM RIDGE PROGRESSES E TO THE ALEUTIANS AND DOWNSTREAM RIDGE BUILDS N ACROSS THE PLAINS/MS VLY. IN THE EAST...PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE REMNANTS OF IVAN. THE SYSTEM SHOULD BECOME AT LEAST TEMPORARILY ABSORBED INTO THE WLYS LATER TODAY. BUT RISING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE CNTRL U.S. ON SATURDAY SUGGEST THAT SYSTEM WILL BE LEFT BEHIND OVER THE SRN VA/NC AREA LATER IN THE DAY TWO PERIOD AS THE WLYS LIFT NEWD INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND. ...NC/VA... A LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST OVER PARTS OF CNTRL/ERN VA AND NC ON SATURDAY...WHERE WEAK CONVERGENCE AND FAIRLY RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE /AVERAGE SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70/ WILL LIKELY PERSIST INVOF REMNANT CIRCULATION OF IVAN. BUT AXIS OF RICHEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE /DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S/ WILL LIKELY HAVE BEEN SHUNTED EWD OFF THE NC/SE VA CST BY THAT TIME. IN ADDITION...MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH RESIDUAL WARM CORE SYSTEM ALOFT WILL BE RELATIVELY WARM /AROUND MINUS 7 C AT 500 MB/. THUS...THE POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED SEVERE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LIMITED. ...WRN STATES... MID LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADING NNE INTO PARTS OF AZ AND ADJACENT AREAS OF THE SWRN U.S. FROM T.S. JEANNE SHOULD INCREASE POTENTIAL FOR DIURNALLY ENHANCED STORMS OVER REGION ON SATURDAY. ABSENCE OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND WEAKENING OF LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AS A RESULT OF INCREASED CLOUDINESS SHOULD PRECLUDE MORE THAN AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WITH ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM. FARTHER N...A BAND OR TWO OF FRONTAL AND/OR POST FRONTAL STORMS MAY ACCOMPANY COLD FRONT OVER THE NRN GRT BASIN. WITH MAIN UPPER TROUGH LIKELY TO DEEPEN OFF THE CA CST DURING THIS PERIOD...EXPECT THAT LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT...AND ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH THE FRONTAL STORMS...WILL REMAIN LIMITED. ..CORFIDI.. 09/17/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Sep 17 08:07:58 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 17 Sep 2004 03:07:58 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200409170808.i8H88ud02123@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 170805 SWODY2 SPC AC 170800 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0300 AM CDT FRI SEP 17 2004 VALID 181200Z - 191200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ENE CZZ 20 SW LAS 25 WNW MLF 25 SSW SLC 55 NNE ENV 45 SE BAM 15 NNE TVL 25 NW SVE 30 ESE 4LW 55 S BKE 30 NNE S80 55 NNW FCA ...CONT... 70 NW ISN 40 ENE BIL 30 N WRL 25 N CPR 50 WNW BFF AKO 50 NNE CAO 50 N ROW 75 SSW GDP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE CRE 25 WNW FLO 15 SW HKY SSU 35 NW BWI 15 E NEL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW FMY 30 SSE VRB. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... CORRECTED FOR NAME OF TROPICAL SYSTEM NEAR BAJA CA ...SYNOPSIS... BROAD UPPER TROUGH NOW OVER THE GULF OF AK/NE PACIFIC EXPECTED AMPLIFY DURING THE NEXT 48 HRS AS UPSTREAM RIDGE PROGRESSES E TO THE ALEUTIANS AND DOWNSTREAM RIDGE BUILDS N ACROSS THE PLAINS/MS VLY. IN THE EAST...PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE REMNANTS OF IVAN. THE SYSTEM SHOULD BECOME AT LEAST TEMPORARILY ABSORBED INTO THE WLYS LATER TODAY. BUT RISING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE CNTRL U.S. ON SATURDAY SUGGEST THAT SYSTEM WILL BE LEFT BEHIND OVER THE SRN VA/NC AREA LATER IN THE DAY TWO PERIOD AS THE WLYS LIFT NEWD INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND. ...NC/VA... A LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST OVER PARTS OF CNTRL/ERN VA AND NC ON SATURDAY...WHERE WEAK CONVERGENCE AND FAIRLY RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE /AVERAGE SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70/ WILL LIKELY PERSIST INVOF REMNANT CIRCULATION OF IVAN. BUT AXIS OF RICHEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE /DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S/ WILL LIKELY HAVE BEEN SHUNTED EWD OFF THE NC/SE VA CST BY THAT TIME. IN ADDITION...MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH RESIDUAL WARM CORE SYSTEM ALOFT WILL BE RELATIVELY WARM /AROUND MINUS 7 C AT 500 MB/. THUS...THE POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED SEVERE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LIMITED. ...WRN STATES... MID LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADING NNE INTO PARTS OF AZ AND ADJACENT AREAS OF THE SWRN U.S. FROM HRCN JAVIER SHOULD INCREASE POTENTIAL FOR DIURNALLY ENHANCED STORMS OVER REGION ON SATURDAY. ABSENCE OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND WEAKENING OF LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AS A RESULT OF INCREASED CLOUDINESS SHOULD PRECLUDE MORE THAN AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WITH ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM. FARTHER N...A BAND OR TWO OF FRONTAL AND/OR POST FRONTAL STORMS MAY ACCOMPANY COLD FRONT OVER THE NRN GRT BASIN. WITH MAIN UPPER TROUGH LIKELY TO DEEPEN OFF THE CA CST DURING THIS PERIOD...EXPECT THAT LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT...AND ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH THE FRONTAL STORMS...WILL REMAIN LIMITED. ..CORFIDI.. 09/17/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Sep 17 17:23:58 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 17 Sep 2004 12:23:58 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200409171724.i8HHOrd01338@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 171722 SWODY2 SPC AC 171718 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1218 PM CDT FRI SEP 17 2004 VALID 181200Z - 191200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW FMY 30 SSE VRB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE OAJ 20 WNW GSB 40 E DAN 10 SE SHD 35 SSE CXY 20 SSE EWR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E CZZ 25 NNW EDW 40 S U31 20 SE PIH 20 ESE LND 30 E GJT 20 NE GUP 55 NNE SAD 65 E DUG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NE OMA 25 NE DSM 35 W UIN 30 W TBN 10 NNE CNU 15 W TOP 60 NE OMA. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... TWO MAIN FEATURES OF INTEREST WITH REGARD TO THE CONVECTIVE FORECAST THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE REMNANTS OF IVAN AS WELL AS A STRONG MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WRN CONUS. REMNANTS OF IVAN -- FORECAST TO BE CENTERED OVER SERN VA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD -- SHOULD DRIFT OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WEST SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEEPEN / DIG SEWD...ACCOMPANIED BY BROAD 50 TO 70 KT SWLY JET. ...MID-ATLANTIC COAST... ALTHOUGH LOW PRESSURE CENTER ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANTS OF IVAN WILL LIKELY REMAIN ACROSS SERN VA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...MAIN AXIS OF FAVORABLE INSTABILITY / SHEAR ON ERN FLANK OF STORM SHOULD BE OFFSHORE BY 18/12Z. THEREFORE...ALTHOUGH SOME RAIN ALONG WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD PERSIST DURING THE DAY -- PARTICULARLY N OF THE CENTER...ANY APPRECIABLE SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY HAVE ENDED PRIOR TO THE START OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. ...PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST / GREAT BASIN... MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO SPREAD NWD ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST / GREAT BASIN THIS PERIOD AHEAD OF STRENGTHENING WRN U.S. TROUGH -- AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED ACROSS NV / UT. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED...FAVORABLY STRONG / VEERING DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD IS ANTICIPATED -- PARTICULARLY ACROSS PARTS OF ERN NV / UT. ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO DEGREE OF AFTERNOON AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION PRECLUDES THE INTRODUCTION OF SEVERE PROBABILITIES ATTM...AREA MAY WARRANT AN UPGRADE IN LATER OUTLOOKS. ..GOSS.. 09/17/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Sep 18 07:32:17 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 18 Sep 2004 02:32:17 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200409180733.i8I7XDd01864@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 180731 SWODY2 SPC AC 180726 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0226 AM CDT SAT SEP 18 2004 VALID 191200Z - 201200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW ELO 60 NNE ATY 35 NW BBW 25 NNE EHA 35 WNW MAF 70 S MRF ...CONT... 30 ESE IPL 25 W IGM P38 30 WSW ELY 15 NNE U31 70 SE TVL 20 NE SAC 50 E EKA 60 N MFR 25 SSW YKM 55 NW 4OM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WSW PIE 10 NNE DAB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW ILM 10 N OAJ 50 NNE EWN 25 E ECG. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED BUT SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER NOAM ON SUNDAY AS DEEP...POSITIVE TILT TROUGH INITIALLY ALONG THE W CST MOVES E INTO THE GRT BASIN/NRN RCKYS...AND DOWNSTREAM RIDGE ELONGATES NEWD FROM TX TO ERN ONTARIO. OVER THE SOUTHEAST ...GUIDANCE AND CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT RETROGRESSIVE MOTION OF REMNANT CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH FORMER HRCN IVAN WILL OCCUR SOMEWHAT MORE SLOWLY AND ALONG A MORE SLY TRACK THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. AT LOWER LEVELS...WRN TROUGH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A STRONG ...SLOWLY MOVING FRONT THAT WILL EXTEND FROM THE NRN PLNS ACROSS THE CNTRL GRT BASIN TO THE SWRN DESERTS. ...CNTRL/NRN GRT BASIN TO NRN PLNS... SLOWLY-MOVING ANA FRONT WILL LIKELY BE A FOCUS FOR DIURNALLY ENHANCED CONVECTION OVER THE WRN STATES THIS PERIOD. POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT MAY BE ENHANCED AS EXIT REGION OF SPEED MAX NOW OFF THE BC CST ROTATES INTO BASE OF LARGE SCALE TROUGH AND STRENGTHENS MESOSCALE ASCENT ACROSS REGION. BUT DRY NATURE OF BOUNDARY LAYER AND POSITIVE TILT OF UPPER TROUGH SUGGEST THAT MOST OF THE CONVECTION MAY BE POST-FRONTAL. WHATEVER ACTIVITY DOES FORM WILL MOST LIKELY ORGANIZE INTO NARROW BANDS GIVEN 40+ KT DEEP SWLY CLOUD LAYER SHEAR. ANY ASSOCIATED SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE LIMITED TO ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ...AZ/FOUR CORNERS REGION... MORE SUBSTANTIAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE PRESENT S OF THE GRT BASIN...FROM THE MEXICAN BORDER NEWD TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. PWS IN AZ MAY RISE TO NEARLY 2 INCHES...WHICH WILL LIKELY YIELD MORE ROBUST STORMS/STORM CLUSTERS RELATIVE TO POINTS FARTHER N. SOME OF THE ACTIVITY MAY BECOME SUSTAINED/ ORGANIZED GIVEN PRESENCE OF 30-35 KT DEEP SWLY SHEAR ON SRN FRINGE OF LARGE SCALE TROUGH. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SUCH DEVELOPMENT SHOULD EXIST ON WRN FRINGE OF MID/UPPER CLOUD SHIELD SHEARING NNEWD FROM HRCN JAVIER...WHERE GREATEST SURFACE HEATING WILL OCCUR. ABSENCE OF AN IDENTIFIABLE SURFACE OR UPPER LEVEL FOCUSING MECHANISM PRECLUDES A CATEGORICAL SEVERE OUTLOOK ATTM...BUT PARTS OF AZ MAY REQUIRE UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK IN LATER FORECASTS. ...ND/NW MN... SCATTERED ELEVATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE PERIOD OVER ND/NW MN AS LLJ STRENGTHENS DOWNSTREAM FROM SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH. LIMITED LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AND MODEST MOISTURE AVAILABILITY SUGGEST THAT ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ..CORFIDI.. 09/18/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Sep 18 17:35:41 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 18 Sep 2004 12:35:41 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200409181736.i8IHaad24532@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 181733 SWODY2 SPC AC 181729 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1229 PM CDT SAT SEP 18 2004 VALID 191200Z - 201200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW ELO 25 NNE RWF BBW 25 NNE LBL 40 NW BGS 70 S MRF ...CONT... 30 ESE IPL 20 NNW EED 50 NE DRA 50 ESE TPH 20 NE SAC 65 S EKA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WSW PIE 30 N MLB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW ILM 10 N OAJ 50 NNE EWN 25 E ECG. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST THIS PERIOD WILL BE LARGE / HIGH-AMPLITUDE TROUGH MOVING SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE WRN U.S. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WILL ALSO MOVE SLOWLY SEWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES...AND SHOULD EXTEND FROM ND SWWD INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BY AFTERNOON / EARLY EVENING. ...PARTS OF AZ / UT INTO WY / CO / THE FOUR CORNERS REGION... MARGINAL INSTABILITY BUY FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD IS FORECAST AHEAD OF STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. DESPITE LIMITED INSTABILITY...STORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP / INCREASE ACROSS THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF FRONT / TROUGH...AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SPREAD NWD IN DEEP SLY FLOW AHEAD OF HIGH-AMPLITUDE TROUGH. THOUGH MOST STORMS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LEVELS...A LARGE AREA OF LOW-PROBABILITY SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO EXIST. GREATEST THREAT ATTM APPEARS TO EXIST ACROSS UT AND VICINITY INVOF ENTRANCE REGION OF MID-LEVEL JET STREAK FORECAST TO ROUND THE BASE OF UPPER TROUGH AND IMPINGE ON THIS AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. ...NRN PLAINS SWWD INTO NERN CO... ALTHOUGH DRY / DEEP / CAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER IS FORECAST ACROSS THE NRN / CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG / IMMEDIATELY BEHIND FRONT MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO WEAKEN CAP AND ALLOW WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS TO DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON / EARLY EVENING. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED...BROAD ZONE OF ENHANCED MID-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF WRN U.S. TROUGH SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR SOME UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION. ALONG WITH A THREAT FOR MARGINAL HAIL WITH A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS...DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MAY ALSO SUPPORT LOCALLY STRONG / GUSTY WINDS. AS BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS AND LOW-LEVEL JET / WARM ADVECTION INCREASES ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS / WRN MN...A FEW ELEVATED STORMS WHICH DEVELOP ACROSS / SPREAD EWD INTO THIS AREA MAY POSE A THREAT FOR MARGINAL HAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. ..GOSS.. 09/18/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Sep 19 07:20:33 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 19 Sep 2004 02:20:33 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200409190721.i8J7LMd20026@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 190718 SWODY2 SPC AC 190714 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0214 AM CDT SUN SEP 19 2004 VALID 201200Z - 211200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE AIA 15 WNW MHE 30 W SUX 25 E GRI 10 ESE HLC 60 SSW LBL 25 NE DHT 35 SSW IML 15 ESE AIA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW ANJ 35 NNE RST 10 WNW BIE 15 NNW GAG 40 N MAF 30 SSW P07 ...CONT... 50 SE YUM 50 NW PHX 45 ENE IGM 35 SSW BCE 4HV 40 NNW PUC 15 ESE ENV 55 ENE U31 25 WSW LOL 30 SE 4LW 25 W BNO 45 NNE BKE 90 ENE 63S ...CONT... 60 N GGW 40 SE LWT 35 N RIW 50 SW DGW 20 SE PHP 45 NNE ABR 40 WNW RRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSE CTY 35 N DAB. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL PLNS AND LWR MO VLY... ...SYNOPSIS... HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NOAM THROUGH THE PERIOD. SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW DROPPING SSE ALONG THE SRN CA CST SHOULD ACCELERATE NEWD FROM WY/MT INTO MANITOBA MONDAY AND PARTIALLY PHASE WITH A DISTURBANCE OF NRN STREAM ORIGIN OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. FARTHER S...REMAINING PART OF WRN TROUGH EXPECTED TO EDGE ONLY SLOWLY E FROM CA/NV INTO UT/NRN AZ. ELSEWHERE...STRONG RIDGE WILL REMAIN DOMINANT FROM THE SRN PLNS INTO THE GRT LKS AND SERN U.S. PHASING SHORTWAVE IMPULSES SHOULD INDUCE SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG COLD FRONT IN WRN ND EARLY IN THE PERIOD. THE WAVE SHOULD DEEPEN AS IT ACCELERATES NEWD INTO CANADA...AND DRIVE TRAILING COLD FRONT SEWD INTO SRN NEB/NW IA AND ERN MN BY 12Z TUE. THE SRN PART OF SAME FRONT SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY S/SE INTO THE SRN RCKYS AND AZ. ...CNTRL HI PLNS TO LWR MO VLY... COLD FRONT MARKING ERN FRINGE OF WRN U.S. TROUGH WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL/NRN PLNS THIS PERIOD AS THE BOUNDARY PROGRESSES SE BENEATH STRONG /50+ KT/ SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW. STRONG SURFACE RIDGE PERSISTING FROM TX TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL TEND TO CURTAIL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE CNTRL PLNS. IN ADDITION....THE MAIN LLJ WILL BE DIRECTED NEWD INTO CANADA IN ASSOCIATION WITH MANITOBA SURFACE WAVE THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL TEND TO LIMIT DEPTH/INTENSITY OF CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT. THESE FACTORS...AND POSITIVE TILT OF LARGE SCALE TROUGH...SUGGEST THAT FRONTAL-RELATED CONVECTION WILL BE PRIMARILY POST-FRONTAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. NEVERTHELESS....GIVEN LIKELY PRESENCE OF FAIRLY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND AFTERNOON HEATING ALONG THE BOUNDARY...A FEW AREAS OF SURFACE-BASED STORMS DO APPEAR LIKELY IN WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT OVER WRN/NRN NEB NEWD INTO SE SD. MORE WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY MAY ALSO DEVELOP SWD ALONG LEE TROUGH INTO WRN KS AND THE OK/TX PANHANDLE REGION. AMPLE DEEP SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT FOR SUSTAINED STORMS/SUPERCELLS AS VALUES RANGE FROM AROUND 40 KTS IN SW KS TO MORE THAN 60 KTS IN NEB/SD. ALTHOUGH INCREASINGLY MERIDIONAL NATURE OF MEAN FLOW OVER THE RCKYS MAY SOMEWHAT WEAKEN MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER THE PLNS...LAPSE RATES SHOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY STEEP /AROUND 7.5 DEG C PER KM/ TO SUPPORT A FEW STORMS WITH HAIL/HIGH WIND. FARTHER NE...A FEW STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS MAY DEVELOP NEWD ALONG FRONT INTO MN. THE STORMS IN NEB/SE SD WILL LIKELY CONSOLIDATE INTO A LINE MONDAY EVENING AS THE LLJ STRENGTHENS IN RESPONSE TO BOTH DIURNAL FORCING AND TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A COUPLED JET STRUCTURE OVER THE CNTRL/NRN PLNS. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD SEVERE ACTIVITY APPEARS UNLIKELY AS RELATIVELY DRY WARM SECTOR WILL LIMIT DEGREE OF INSTABILITY. ..CORFIDI.. 09/19/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Sep 19 07:24:49 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 19 Sep 2004 02:24:49 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200409190725.i8J7Pdd21519@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 190723 SWODY2 SPC AC 190719 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0219 AM CDT SUN SEP 19 2004 VALID 201200Z - 211200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE AIA 15 WNW MHE 30 W SUX 25 E GRI 10 ESE HLC 60 SSW LBL 25 NE DHT 35 SSW IML 15 ESE AIA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW ANJ 35 NNE RST 10 WNW BIE 15 NNW GAG 40 N MAF 30 SSW P07 ...CONT... 50 SE YUM 50 NW PHX 45 ENE IGM 35 SSW BCE 4HV 40 NNW PUC 15 ESE ENV 55 ENE U31 25 WSW LOL 30 SE 4LW 25 W BNO 45 NNE BKE 90 ENE 63S ...CONT... 60 N GGW 40 SE LWT 35 N RIW 50 SW DGW 20 SE PHP 45 NNE ABR 40 WNW RRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSE CTY 35 N DAB. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL PLNS AND LWR MO VLY... ...SYNOPSIS... HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NOAM THROUGH THE PERIOD. SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW DROPPING SSE ALONG THE SRN CA CST SHOULD ACCELERATE NEWD FROM WY/MT INTO MANITOBA MONDAY AND PARTIALLY PHASE WITH A DISTURBANCE OF NRN STREAM ORIGIN OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. FARTHER S...REMAINING PART OF WRN TROUGH EXPECTED TO EDGE ONLY SLOWLY E FROM CA/NV INTO UT/NRN AZ. ELSEWHERE...STRONG RIDGE WILL REMAIN DOMINANT FROM THE SRN PLNS INTO THE GRT LKS AND SERN U.S. PHASING SHORTWAVE IMPULSES SHOULD INDUCE SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG COLD FRONT IN WRN ND EARLY IN THE PERIOD. THE WAVE SHOULD DEEPEN AS IT ACCELERATES NEWD INTO CANADA...AND DRIVE TRAILING COLD FRONT SEWD INTO SRN NEB/NW IA AND ERN MN BY 12Z TUE. THE SRN PART OF SAME FRONT SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY S/SE INTO THE SRN RCKYS AND AZ. ...CNTRL HI PLNS TO LWR MO VLY... COLD FRONT MARKING ERN FRINGE OF WRN U.S. TROUGH WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL/NRN PLNS THIS PERIOD AS THE BOUNDARY PROGRESSES SE BENEATH STRONG /50+ KT/ SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW. STRONG SURFACE RIDGE PERSISTING FROM TX TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL TEND TO CURTAIL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE CNTRL PLNS. IN ADDITION....THE MAIN LLJ WILL BE DIRECTED NEWD INTO CANADA IN ASSOCIATION WITH MANITOBA SURFACE WAVE THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL TEND TO LIMIT DEPTH/INTENSITY OF CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT. THESE FACTORS...AND POSITIVE TILT OF LARGE SCALE TROUGH...SUGGEST THAT FRONTAL-RELATED CONVECTION WILL BE PRIMARILY POST-FRONTAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. NEVERTHELESS....GIVEN LIKELY PRESENCE OF FAIRLY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND AFTERNOON HEATING ALONG THE BOUNDARY...A FEW AREAS OF SURFACE-BASED STORMS DO APPEAR LIKELY IN WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT OVER WRN/NRN NEB NEWD INTO SE SD. MORE WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY MAY ALSO DEVELOP SWD ALONG LEE TROUGH INTO WRN KS AND THE OK/TX PANHANDLE REGION. AMPLE DEEP SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT FOR SUSTAINED STORMS/SUPERCELLS AS VALUES RANGE FROM AROUND 40 KTS IN SW KS TO MORE THAN 60 KTS IN NEB/SD. ALTHOUGH INCREASINGLY MERIDIONAL NATURE OF MEAN FLOW OVER THE RCKYS MAY SOMEWHAT WEAKEN MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER THE PLNS...LAPSE RATES SHOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY STEEP /AROUND 7.5 DEG C PER KM/ TO SUPPORT A FEW STORMS WITH HAIL/HIGH WIND. FARTHER NE...A FEW STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS MAY DEVELOP NEWD ALONG FRONT INTO MN. THE STORMS IN NEB/SE SD WILL LIKELY CONSOLIDATE INTO A LINE MONDAY EVENING AS THE LLJ STRENGTHENS IN RESPONSE TO BOTH DIURNAL FORCING AND TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A COUPLED JET STRUCTURE OVER THE CNTRL/NRN PLNS. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD SEVERE ACTIVITY APPEARS UNLIKELY AS RELATIVELY DRY WARM SECTOR WILL LIMIT DEGREE OF INSTABILITY. ..CORFIDI.. 09/19/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Sep 19 17:33:42 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 19 Sep 2004 12:33:42 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200409191734.i8JHYUd26020@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 191732 SWODY2 SPC AC 191727 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1227 PM CDT SUN SEP 19 2004 VALID 201200Z - 211200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE 9V9 30 SSW ATY 40 N SUX 40 ESE GRI 40 N RSL 55 N GCK 15 SSW GLD 25 WNW IML 15 SSE 9V9. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE YUM 50 SSW PRC 45 NE INW 40 ESE U17 55 WNW 4HV 50 W MLF 35 E U31 90 N WMC 20 NNE BNO 30 SSE PDT 60 NE 63S ...CONT... 25 NNW ANJ 40 N ALO 50 NE FNB 15 NNW GAG 40 N MAF 30 SSW P07. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW CTY 25 NNE JAX. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE WRN U.S. TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY EWD THIS PERIOD. ALTHOUGH HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD SLOWLY EWD ACROSS ND / MN IN ADVANCE OF THIS TROUGH...LITTLE CHANGE IN HEIGHTS IS FORECAST FURTHER S ACROSS THE PLAINS. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM CENTRAL ND SSWWD INTO NERN CO AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...WITH LEE TROUGH EXTENDING SWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS. WITH TIME...NRN PORTIONS OF THIS FRONT WILL SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AHEAD OF MORE PROGRESSIVE PORTION OF UPPER TROUGH. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY / WRN UPPER LAKES SWWD INTO NWRN KS / ERN CO. ...THE PLAINS... STRONGER DYNAMICS / FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL SHIFT NEWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS / CANADIAN PRAIRIE INTO WRN ONTARIO WITH TIME...WHILE VERTICAL MOTION / POTENTIAL FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD REMAIN MUCH WEAKER FURTHER S ACROSS THE PLAINS. ADDITIONALLY...RELATIVELY WEAK LAPSE RATES AND LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR DESTABILIZATION ALONG ENTIRE LENGTH OF COLD FRONT...WHICH SHOULD ALSO LIMIT STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. NONETHELESS...ERN FRINGES OF 70 TO 80 KT MID-LEVEL JET AHEAD OF MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL EXTEND EWD INTO THE WARM SECTOR. WITH 35 TO 50 KT FLOW AT MID LEVELS FORECAST ABOVE SURFACE BOUNDARY...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION. ALTHOUGH LIMITED BY LACK OF INSTABILITY...A FEW STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINAL HAIL WILL LIKELY EVOLVE DURING THE AFTERNOON. GREATEST POTENTIAL APPEARS TO EXIST FROM CENTRAL NEB NEWD INTO SERN SD...WHERE MOST FAVORABLE INSTABILITY / SHEAR COMBINATION WILL LIKELY EXIST. ALTHOUGH MORE FAVORABLE KINEMATIC AND DYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED FURTHER N ALONG FRONT INTO MN...WEAKER INSTABILITY ACROSS THIS REGION SUGGESTS ONLY A MINIMAL SEVERE THREAT. IF AIRMASS CAN DESTABILIZE ACROSS THIS REGION MORE THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...SLIGHT RISK MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED NWD IN LATER OUTLOOKS. OVERNIGHT...LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE MIDDLE MO VALLEY...SUGGESTING THAT A HAIL THREAT WITH ELEVATED CONVECTION MAY PERSIST ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDDLE MO VALLEY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ..GOSS.. 09/19/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Sep 19 18:22:54 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 19 Sep 2004 13:22:54 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200409191823.i8JINgd09048@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 191820 SWODY2 SPC AC 191813 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0113 PM CDT SUN SEP 19 2004 VALID 201200Z - 211200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE 9V9 30 SSW ATY 40 N SUX 40 ESE GRI 40 N RSL 55 N GCK 15 SSW GLD 25 WNW IML 15 SSE 9V9. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE YUM 50 SSW PRC 45 NE INW 40 ESE U17 55 WNW 4HV 50 W MLF 35 E U31 90 N WMC 20 NNE BNO 30 SSE PDT 60 NE 63S ...CONT... 25 NNW ANJ 40 N ALO 50 NE FNB 15 NNW GAG 40 N MAF 30 SSW P07. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW CTY 25 NNE JAX. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE WRN U.S. TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY EWD THIS PERIOD. ALTHOUGH HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD SLOWLY EWD ACROSS ND / MN IN ADVANCE OF THIS TROUGH...LITTLE CHANGE IN HEIGHTS IS FORECAST FURTHER S ACROSS THE PLAINS. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM CENTRAL ND SSWWD INTO NERN CO AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...WITH LEE TROUGH EXTENDING SWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS. WITH TIME...NRN PORTIONS OF THIS FRONT WILL SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AHEAD OF MORE PROGRESSIVE PORTION OF UPPER TROUGH. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY / WRN UPPER LAKES SWWD INTO NWRN KS / ERN CO. ...THE PLAINS... STRONGER DYNAMICS / FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL SHIFT NEWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS / CANADIAN PRAIRIE INTO WRN ONTARIO WITH TIME...WHILE VERTICAL MOTION / POTENTIAL FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD REMAIN MUCH WEAKER FURTHER S ACROSS THE PLAINS. ADDITIONALLY...RELATIVELY WEAK LAPSE RATES AND LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR DESTABILIZATION ALONG ENTIRE LENGTH OF COLD FRONT...WHICH SHOULD ALSO LIMIT STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. NONETHELESS...ERN FRINGES OF 70 TO 80 KT MID-LEVEL JET AHEAD OF MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL EXTEND EWD INTO THE WARM SECTOR. WITH 35 TO 50 KT FLOW AT MID LEVELS FORECAST ABOVE SURFACE BOUNDARY...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION. ALTHOUGH LIMITED BY LACK OF INSTABILITY...A FEW STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINAL HAIL WILL LIKELY EVOLVE DURING THE AFTERNOON. GREATEST POTENTIAL APPEARS TO EXIST FROM CENTRAL NEB NEWD INTO SERN SD...WHERE MOST FAVORABLE INSTABILITY / SHEAR COMBINATION WILL LIKELY EXIST. ALTHOUGH MORE FAVORABLE KINEMATIC AND DYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED FURTHER N ALONG FRONT INTO MN...WEAKER INSTABILITY ACROSS THIS REGION SUGGESTS ONLY A MINIMAL SEVERE THREAT. IF AIRMASS CAN DESTABILIZE ACROSS THIS REGION MORE THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...SLIGHT RISK MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED NWD IN LATER OUTLOOKS. OVERNIGHT...LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE MIDDLE MO VALLEY...SUGGESTING THAT A HAIL THREAT WITH ELEVATED CONVECTION MAY PERSIST ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDDLE MO VALLEY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ..GOSS.. 09/19/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Sep 20 11:35:26 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 20 Sep 2004 06:35:26 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200409201136.i8KBaBd32396@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 200728 SWODY2 SPC AC 200724 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0224 AM CDT MON SEP 20 2004 VALID 211200Z - 221200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WSW INK 30 NW GDP 30 S 4CR 40 WNW TCC 30 ENE DHT 20 NNE AMA 45 SW LBB 40 WSW INK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 N PIE 15 SE DAB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 140 ENE APN 15 W PLN 30 W GRB 10 S ALO TOP 25 S PNC 50 SW SPS 50 SSE MAF 30 ESE P07 ...CONT... 25 ESE DUG 65 NNW SVC 35 NE GNT 45 SSW GUC 35 NE U28 40 WNW 4HV 20 WSW DPG 20 E MLD 35 SSW BZN 45 SW BIL 40 NNE RWL 15 NE FCL 20 SSW GLD 15 E BUB 25 NW ATY 10 E INL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR A SMALL PART OF THE SRN HI PLNS... ...SYNOPSIS... SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW LIFTING NNE ACROSS THE RCKYS WILL CONTINUE NE ACROSS HUDSON BAY ON TUESDAY...LEAVING BEHIND REMAINING PORTION OF EXISTING TROUGH OVER THE GRT BASIN. THE LATTER SYSTEM WILL ITSELF BEGIN TO EJECT NEWD LATER TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED WLY FLOW ACROSS THE NE PACIFIC AND WRN CANADA. IN THE MEANTIME...STRONG RIDGE EXPECTED TO HOLD FIRM FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER DAY E OF THE MISSISSIPPI. AT LWR LEVELS...COLD FRONT WHICH WILL CROSS THE NRN PLNS AND UPR MS VLY LATER TODAY/TONIGHT SHOULD REACH A NE MN/NW IA/NW KS/SE CO LINE BY 12Z TUESDAY. THE BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DROP S ACROSS THE HI PLNS DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...AND SHOULD EXTEND FROM SE NM INTO NW OK BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. DOMINANT ERN RIDGE SHOULD KEEP THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT MORE SLOWLY-MOVING. IN FACT...THE BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY FROM CNTRL KS THROUGH CNTRL IA AND CNTRL WI INTO NRN MI BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. ...SRN HI PLNS... LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LIMITED SE OF THE COLD FRONT OVER THE SRN/CNTRL PLNS ON TUESDAY AS A RESULT OF PERSISTENT SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM TX TO THE MID ATLANTIC CST. COUPLED WITH POSITIVE TILT OF GRT BASIN TROUGH...EXPECT THAT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY POST-FRONTAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCATTERED SURFACE-BASED STORMS WILL...NEVERTHELESS...LIKELY FORM ALONG AND PERHAPS AHEAD OF BOUNDARY AS IT SETTLES S ACROSS CNTRL/ERN NM AND W TX DURING THE AFTERNOON. IN THIS REGION...THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN AND LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE PRESENT TO BREAK WEAK CAP. GIVEN STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE /25-30 KT/ SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW...SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME SUSTAINED AND/OR ORGANIZED INTO SMALL CLUSTERS. A THREAT MAY DEVELOP FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND AND POSSIBLY HAIL FROM A FEW CELLS AS HEATING BOOSTS MLCAPE TO AROUND 1000 J/KG. BUT ANY SUCH THREAT SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIMITED AS MOISTURE WILL BE SPARSE...LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE WEAK...AND CONTINUED SWD MOTION OF FRONT UNDERCUTS UPDRAFTS. ..CORFIDI.. 09/20/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Sep 20 17:04:08 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 20 Sep 2004 12:04:08 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200409201704.i8KH4rd26625@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 201701 SWODY2 SPC AC 201657 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1157 AM CDT MON SEP 20 2004 VALID 211200Z - 221200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE CNM 25 WSW CNM 40 SE 4CR 55 NNW TCC 10 WSW CAO 25 SSW EHA 20 NNE AMA 35 WSW LBB 30 SE CNM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 N PIE 15 SE DAB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSW DMN 35 WNW TCS 20 W ABQ 20 N FMN 20 SW U17 35 E MLF 20 NW U24 25 WNW MLD 15 WNW JAC 35 WNW RIW 35 S RWL 30 NE DEN 35 SE SNY 35 SSW ANW 40 NNW ATY 30 E RRT ...CONT... 30 SSE CMX 35 NE DSM 10 SSE FNB 45 WNW END 10 NNW CDS 40 S MAF 30 ESE P07. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ERN NM AND PARTS OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... HIGH AMPLITUDE FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE CONUS THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE A LARGE BLOCKING HIGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE EAST...AND A DEEP UPPER TROUGH MAKING SLOW PROGRESS ACROSS THE WEST AND THE ROCKIES. A STRONG FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE SITUATED BETWEEN THESE TWO LARGE SCALE FEATURES...FROM THE NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY S/SWWD INTO THE CNTRL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS. SOMEWHAT MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW OVER THE NORTH WILL PROMOTE FRONTAL PASSAGE EWD FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO THE WRN GREAT LAKES...WHILE PLAINS PORTION OF THE BOUNDARY REMAINS QUASISTATIONARY FROM NEB INTO WRN KS. COLDER AIR SPREADING EAST AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT RANGE...COUPLED WITH UPSLOPE FLOW AND DIABATIC PROCESSES...WILL RESULT IN THE COLD FRONT DEVELOPING SEWD ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS OF CO/NERN NM AND THE TX/OK PNHDLS FROM LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. ...ERN NM TO THE PNHDLS AND WRN KS... ZONE OF MODEST UPSLOPE FLOW AND PERSISTENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THIS REGION SHOULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS BY AFTERNOON. WHILE THE BULK OF THE REGION REMAINS SOUTH OF MORE FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE WRN UPPER TROUGH...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND ASCENT NEAR LEE/THERMAL TROUGH AXIS...AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT DEVELOPING SEWD ACROSS ERN CO SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR TSTM INITIATION. ACROSS THE NRN PORTIONS OF THE SLGT RISK AREA...20-30KT SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER TO SWLY IN THE MID LEVELS PRODUCING ADEQUATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR STORM ORGANIZATION/PERSISTENCE...AND A CHANCE FOR HAIL/WIND ALONG A RELATIVELY NARROW CORRIDOR FROM NERN NM INTO SWRN KS. FARTHER SOUTH...ACROSS SERN NM...VERY WARM AND WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AND POTENTIAL FOR GREATER INSTABILITY SUGGESTS A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL DESPITE SOMEWHAT WEAKER DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THIS REGION. ..CARBIN.. 09/20/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Sep 21 07:43:23 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 21 Sep 2004 02:43:23 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200409210744.i8L7i5d14266@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 210742 SWODY2 SPC AC 210737 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0237 AM CDT TUE SEP 21 2004 VALID 221200Z - 231200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S CNM 30 E ALM 35 N 4CR 35 W CAO 25 ENE CAO 30 WNW AMA 55 W LBB 30 S CNM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PIE 30 SSE VRB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 N ANJ 40 NE RST 25 NNE STJ 35 SSW P28 40 N CDS 50 SSE LBB 45 SSE BGS 25 S JCT 40 ENE SAT 35 SW PSX ...CONT... 40 SSW DMN 35 WNW TCS 20 W ABQ DRO 30 W 4BL 30 SW PUC 15 ESE OGD 50 SSW JAC 50 ENE JAC 35 ENE WRL 25 NW DGW 25 NE FCL 35 SE SNY 40 NE VTN 40 SSW JMS 30 E RRT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A SMALL PART OF THE SRN HI PLNS... ...SYNOPSIS... LINGERING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GRT BASIN EXPECTED TO EJECT NE AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE CNTRL RCKYS/HI PLNS ON WEDNESDAY AS WLY FLOW INCREASES OVER THE NE PACIFIC/WRN CANADA AND THE PACIFIC NW. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE RELATIVE TO THE ETA/GFS. AT THE SURFACE...PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY STRONG ANTICYCLONES CENTERED OVER THE GRT BASIN AND OH VLY. BETWEEN THE TWO RIDGES... SRN PART OF FRONTAL ZONE THAT WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE CNTRL/SRN PLNS WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE SEWD LATER IN THE PERIOD AS EJECTING SYSTEM INDUCES DEVELOPMENT OF A WAVE ALONG THE FRONT IN NEB/SD. ...SRN HI PLNS... SETUP SHOULD ONCE AGAIN SUPPORT SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL STORMS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AND ALONG LEE TROUGH OVER CNTRL AND ERN NM. WITH MAJOR PORTION OF EJECTING TROUGH REMAINING WELL N OF REGION...EXPECT THAT LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN WEAK OVER THE SRN PLNS. IN ADDITION...PERSISTENT SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO INHIBIT LARGE SCALE MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. NEVERTHELESS...A MODEST AMOUNT OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE /SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S/ SHOULD REMAIN PRESENT OVER ERN NM AND WRN/SWRN TX GIVEN WEAK SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW ON SWRN FLANK OF RIDGE. UPSLOPE FLOW AND SURFACE HEATING SHOULD ONCE AGAIN SUPPORT AFTERNOON STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CNTRL/ERN NM...AND PERHAPS ALONG COLD FRONT/LEE TROUGH IN PARTS OF W TX. MODERATE /30 KT/ MID LEVEL WSWLY FLOW ROUNDING BASE OF UPPER TROUGH SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT DEEP SHEAR FOR A FEW ORGANIZED/SUSTAINED CELLS AS SURFACE HEATING BOOSTS MLCAPE TO NEAR 1000 J/KG. GIVEN THIS ENVIRONMENT...A FEW STORMS COULD YIELD LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL. THE OVERALL THREAT SHOULD... HOWEVER...REMAIN FAIRLY LIMITED IN INTENSITY/DURATION GIVEN RELATIVELY MODEST SHEAR AND WEAK LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT. ...LWR MO VLY... THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AND/OR INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATE IN THE PERIOD OVER PARTS OF NEB/SD AS WARM ADVECTION/DPVA INCREASE DOWNSTREAM FROM EJECTING UPPER TROUGH. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE PRIMARILY ELEVATED. GIVEN MEAGER MOISTURE SUPPLY IN WARM SECTOR AND WEAK LAPSE RATES...THE DEGREE OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL PROBABLY BE TOO LIMITED TO POSE A THREAT FOR SUSTAINED SEVERE. ..CORFIDI.. 09/21/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Sep 21 16:16:06 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 21 Sep 2004 11:16:06 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200409211616.i8LGGnd06283@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 211614 SWODY2 SPC AC 211610 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1110 AM CDT TUE SEP 21 2004 VALID 221200Z - 231200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 E DUG 35 SE ONM 35 ENE LVS 45 WSW RTN 10 NW FMN 15 NW 4BL 35 S VEL 25 ESE RKS 50 SSW DGW 55 WSW CDR 25 NE CDR 30 NW 9V9 35 ESE ABR 45 ENE FAR 45 W INL ...CONT... 25 NNE ELO 35 SE MSP 35 SSW FOD 40 N FNB 25 NNE EMP 15 ESE PNC 35 SW OKC 10 E SPS 55 WNW MWL 35 NNE SJT 25 WSW JCT 40 ESE SAT 30 N GLS CEW 25 S TLH ...CONT... 45 N PIE VRB. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... STRONG UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL ROCKIES WILL LIFT ENEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS UPSTREAM WLY FLOW INCREASES ACROSS THE ERN PACIFIC AND PACIFIC NORTHWEST. TWO LARGE AREAS OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND OHIO VALLEY RESPECTIVELY. BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS...A NARROW ZONE OF GREATER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SUSTAINED LIFT WILL PROMOTE TSTM DEVELOPMENT. STRONGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD CONCENTRATE ALONG THE FRONT ZONE ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS ACROSS THIS REGION. FARTHER SOUTH...THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SWD/SEWD OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS AND SHOULD EXTEND FROM SERN KS...ACROSS NWRN OK...AND INTO SRN NM BY EARLY THURSDAY. ...SRN HIGH PLAINS... SITUATION WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS NERN NM AND THE PNHDLS INTERSECTING LEE/THERMAL TROUGH ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN NM. INCREASING DIURNAL INSTABILITY SHOULD AGAIN SUPPORT SCATTERED STORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND ALONG LEE TROUGH OVER CNTRL AND ERN NM. WITH UPPER TROUGH EJECTING N OF REGION...LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN WEAK OVER THE SRN PLNS. HOWEVER...MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW AND SURFACE HEATING SHOULD BOOST MLCAPE TO NEAR 1000 J/KG. COUPLED WITH MODERATE MID LEVEL WSWLY FLOW ROUNDING BASE OF UPPER TROUGH...SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL EXIST FOR A COUPLE OF ORGANIZED/SUSTAINED CELLS WITH A CHANCE FOR WIND/HAIL. GIVEN RELATIVELY MODEST SHEAR...WEAK LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT...AND DIURNAL NATURE OF THE CONVECTION... ONLY LOW SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES ARE WARRANTED AT THIS TIME. ...KS/NEB/WRN IA... STORMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE BY WEDNESDAY EVENING OVER PARTS OF KS/NEB AS EJECTING UPPER TROUGH ACTS TO ENHANCE ASCENT ALONG THE S-N ORIENTED FRONTAL ZONE. LIMITED MOISTURE AND RELATIVELY WEAK LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR RESULT IN LOW INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF 500 J/KG MUCAPE. IN ADDITION...IT APPEARS THAT THE BULK OF CONVECTION WILL OCCUR IN POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT THUS LIMITING ANY SEVERE THREAT TO MARGINAL HAIL. ..CARBIN.. 09/21/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 22 07:32:11 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 22 Sep 2004 02:32:11 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200409220732.i8M7Wqd30618@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 220731 SWODY2 SPC AC 220726 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0226 AM CDT WED SEP 22 2004 VALID 231200Z - 241200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E PSX 40 SSE CLL 25 WNW LFK 50 SSE SHV 25 WNW BTR 30 N BVE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 100 NNE CMX 25 SW RHI 25 S LSE 20 ENE DSM 15 N BIE 20 W BBW 40 SSE PHP 35 NE MBG 70 N DVL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW TWF 60 SE BKE LWS 30 ESE 3TH 40 W LWT 30 N SHR 25 NNW DGW 20 SW LAR 40 W CAG 45 E EVW 20 WNW MLD 35 NW TWF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SSW DMN 30 S TCS 30 SE 4CR 25 SE CVS 45 W CDS 25 ENE CSM 10 SSE PNC 35 WSW JLN 30 W FSM 20 SSW ADM 30 NNE ABI 20 S SJT 35 SE DRT. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER LOW NOW OVER THE GRT BASIN EXPECTED TO EJECT NE ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE PLNS...THE UPR MS VLY AND THE UPR GRT LKS ON THURSDAY AS WLY FLOW CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD WRN CANADA AND THE PACIFIC NW. ELSEWHERE...DOWNSTREAM RIDGE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND ELONGATE NE/SW FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TO THE NW GULF OF MEXICO. AT THE SURFACE...LOW ASSOCIATED WITH EJECTING TROUGH SHOULD BE NEAR FSD AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. THE LOW WILL LIKELY MOVE RAPIDLY NNEWD DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SWEEPS NE ACROSS THE UPR MS VLY/WRN GRT LKS. THE SRN PART OF SAME BOUNDARY WILL WEAKEN UPON MOVING SE ACROSS THE SRN PLNS/LWR MS VLY. ...SE NM/SW TX... WEAK LOW LEVEL E/NELY FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD SE NM/SW TX ON THURSDAY IN WAKE OF SHALLOW COLD FRONT MOVING SE ACROSS THE SRN PLNS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ENVIRONMENT /DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S/ OVER THE REGION BENEATH WEAK /15-20 KT/ WSWLY MID LEVEL FLOW. SURFACE HEATING AND UPSLOPE COMPONENT...COUPLED WITH 500 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND MINUS 9 C ...SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY YIELD HAIL AND POSSIBLY LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND AS MLCAPE RISES TO AROUND 1000 J/KG. BUT WEAK DEEP SHEAR AND MEAGER LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT SUGGEST THAT THE SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN ISOLATED...SHORT LIVED AND STRONGLY DIURNAL. ...UPR MS VLY... A BAND OF LOW TOPPED CONVECTION/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY COLD FRONT CROSSING THE NRN HALF OF IA AND MN. LIMITED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE SUPPLY AND WEAK LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH LARGELY MERIDIONAL LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW SUGGEST THAT UPDRAFTS WILL REMAIN WEAK DESPITE STRONG LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT. CONSEQUENTLY...POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED SEVERE ACTIVITY APPEARS SLIM. NEVERTHELESS...GIVEN STRENGTH OF MEAN WIND /45-50 KTS/...A POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS ...ESPECIALLY IF MORE SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE HEATING CAN OCCUR THAN IS NOW ANTICIPATED. ..CORFIDI.. 09/22/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 22 17:26:55 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 22 Sep 2004 12:26:55 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200409221727.i8MHRWd28413@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 221725 SWODY2 SPC AC 221720 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1220 PM CDT WED SEP 22 2004 VALID 231200Z - 241200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E DLH 30 E MSP 20 N MKT 45 SSE AXN 40 WSW AXN 25 E RRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NW LRD 25 NE CRP 15 NE PSX 30 SSE CLL 50 ENE ACT FTW 55 WNW MWL 30 NNE ABI 20 SSW SJT 30 SE DRT 55 NW LRD ...CONT... 45 W MRF 30 SE HOB 15 NE LBB 45 NNE CDS 30 NW END 20 WNW EMP 20 NNE BIE 25 W BBW 45 SSE PHP 55 NE MBG 65 N DVL ...CONT... 95 N CMX 40 S CMX 30 SSW RFD 45 S UIN 45 W UNO 40 NNW HOT 25 W ELD 40 NNE ESF 40 SSW LUL 25 SSW MOB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSE FMY 30 S PBI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE GTF 30 NE SHR 50 NNW DGW 25 SW LAR 45 WSW CAG 45 N VEL 10 W MLD 30 WNW TWF 45 NNW BOI 10 WSW LWS 25 NNE 3TH 40 ESE FCA 40 ESE GTF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/NRN MN AND FAR NWRN WI... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER TROUGH...CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS WRN CO...IS PROGGED TO BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED TOWARD THE END OF DAY 1 AND INTENSIFY ON THURSDAY AS IT LIFTS NEWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY. BAND OF 60-80 KT SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ACCOMPANYING THE TROUGH WILL SPREAD INTO MN WITH FAVORABLE LEFT EXIT REGION SUPPORTING INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT INTO CENTRAL/NRN MN BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN STRONG HEIGHT FALLS WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH /150-180 METERS/...ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS NNEWD INTO WRN/NWRN MN BY 24/00Z. COLD FRONT...INITIALLY TRAILING SWD FROM THE SURFACE LOW INTO ERN NEB/KS...WILL MOVE QUICKLY NEWD REACHING NORTH CENTRAL MN TO ERN IA BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ...CENTRAL/NRN MN AND FAR NWRN WI... DESPITE WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES GIVEN MERIDIONAL TROPOSPHERIC FLOW...A NARROW AXIS OF SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND SURFACE HEATING /AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S/ WILL LIKELY SUPPORT MLCAPE VALUES FROM 500 TO 900 J/KG. STRONG DEEP LAYER ASCENT...ALTHOUGH CONFINED TO THE FAST MOVING COLD FRONT...IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A LINE OF LOW-TOPPED STORMS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON FROM WRN MN TO NRN IA...AND THEN MOVE QUICKLY NEWD INTO CENTRAL/NRN MN AND POTENTIALLY FAR NWRN WI. GIVEN STRENGTH OF UPPER TROUGH/MID-LEVEL WINDS AND COMBINED WITH A MID-LEVEL DRY INTRUSION AND INCREASING SLY LLJ AT 35-45 KT... DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. HOWEVER...BACKED LOW-LEVEL WINDS ALONG THE FRONT AND ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SURFACE LOW WILL INCREASE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES. ...ERN IA/NERN MO... ALTHOUGH STRONGER UPPER FORCING WILL BE NORTH OF THIS AREA...MODELS SUGGEST THERE SHOULD BE MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES EWD INTO ERN IA/NERN MO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ..PETERS.. 09/22/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 23 07:30:13 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 23 Sep 2004 02:30:13 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200409230730.i8N7Umd01860@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 230729 SWODY2 SPC AC 230724 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0224 AM CDT THU SEP 23 2004 VALID 241200Z - 251200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW FHU 45 NW SAD 20 SW GUP 20 WSW DRO 15 SE ASE 10 SE DEN 30 NNW LAA 25 SW EHA 35 W AMA 60 SSE CVS 30 NW MAF 40 WNW SJT 25 W SEP 25 SW DUA 20 ENE FYV 35 S TBN 55 WNW CGI 10 ENE JBR 10 SSE PBF MLU 15 NNE BTR 40 SSE HUM. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS/FORECAST... A RELATIVELY QUIET CONVECTIVE PATTERN WILL DOMINATE THE LWR 48 ON FRIDAY. UPPER TROUGH WHICH WILL CROSS THE UPR MS VLY/WRN GRT LKS LATER TODAY WILL CONTINUE NE ACROSS ONTARIO/WRN QUEBEC DURING THE DAY TWO PERIOD. A SERIES OF WEAKER SHORTWAVE IMPULSES...ORIGINATING IN BOTH THE CANADIAN WLYS AND IN BAND OF WEAKER WLY FLOW OVER THE PACIFIC NW...EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN CYCLONIC REGIME OVER THE UPR MS VLY/UPR GRT LKS. ELSEWHERE...RIDGING WILL PERSIST ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD...OVER BAJA CA AND OVER THE PAC NW. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL PRECEDE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE LWR GRT LKS REGION...AND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT/TROUGH WILL CROSS THE UPR MS VLY. THE SRN END OF THE LEAD BOUNDARY SHOULD SLOWLY DISSIPATE INVOF T.S. IVAN REMNANTS OVER SE TX AND THE LWR MS VLY. OTHERWISE... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER MOST AREAS. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY FORM WITH AFTERNOON HEATING OVER THE NM...SW TX AND PERHAPS SRN CO MOUNTAINS...WHERE WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW WILL PERSIST BENEATH AXIS OF RELATIVELY COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES /AROUND MINUS 12 C AT 500 MB/. A FEW STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP INVOF IVAN REMNANTS OVER SE TX/LA...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS AND WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY LIMIT COVERAGE. WEAK SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SHOULD MITIGATE ANY RISK FOR ORGANIZED/SUSTAINED SEVERE CONVECTION THROUGHOUT THE CONUS. ..CORFIDI.. 09/23/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 23 16:24:51 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 23 Sep 2004 11:24:51 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200409231625.i8NGPPd13437@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 231622 SWODY2 SPC AC 231621 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1121 AM CDT THU SEP 23 2004 VALID 241200Z - 251200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW FHU 45 NW SAD 20 SW GUP 20 WSW DRO 15 SE ASE 10 SE DEN 30 NNW LAA 25 SW EHA 35 W AMA 55 WSW LBB 30 N MAF 35 ESE BGS 25 NW SEP 25 SW DUA 20 ENE FYV 30 SE TBN 55 NNW POF POF 60 ENE PBF 45 N HEZ 15 NNE BTR 40 SSE HUM. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVE...MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL DE-AMPLIFY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT TRANSLATES NEWD FROM THE WRN GREAT LAKES INTO QUEBEC. MEANWHILE...BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME WILL BE MAINTAINED FROM THE CNTRL ROCKIES INTO THE DESERT SW...BETWEEN MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONES OFF THE BAJA AND SERN U.S. COASTS. AT THE SURFACE...PRIMARY FRONTAL ZONE ATTENDANT TO WRN GREAT LAKES TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PUSH EWD/SEWD...LIKELY EXTENDING FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER ERN ONTARIO SWWD THROUGH THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY AND INTO SWRN TX BY LATE AFTERNOON. ...SRN NM/SWRN TX... INCREASING UPSLOPE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO AID IN DIURNAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SACRAMENTO/GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT HIGHER TERRAIN OF SWRN NM BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. ACTIVE SHALLOW CONVECTIVE SCHEME IN ETA BMJ SOUNDINGS APPEARS TO BE OVER-STEEPENING LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WHICH IS CONTRIBUTING TO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. CORRESPONDING ETA KF SOUNDINGS DEPICT WEAKER LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY /I.E. MLCAPES OF 500-800 J/KG/ WHICH APPEARS MORE REASONABLE. THOUGH A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...THE WEAK INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL SHEAR SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT ANY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. THUS...NO PROBABILITIES ARE WARRANTED ATTM. ...SERN TX... LATEST NHC GUIDANCE INDICATES REMNANT T.S. IVAN CIRCULATION MOVING FROM N OF HOU WNWWD TOWARD THE HILL COUNTRY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY AFTER LANDFALL OF SYSTEM...MITIGATING ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT. ..MEAD.. 09/23/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Sep 24 07:31:54 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 24 Sep 2004 02:31:54 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200409240732.i8O7WSd31237@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 240730 SWODY2 SPC AC 240729 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0229 AM CDT FRI SEP 24 2004 VALID 251200Z - 261200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W CTY 30 SSE SSI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE BOS 20 ESE POU 35 WNW ILG 45 NNE SHD 40 NNW SSU 25 WSW CRW UNI 10 N FKL 30 NE ROC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW FHU 35 SSW SOW 10 ENE CEZ 30 WSW 4FC 30 NNW SNY 35 SW MHN 35 SE LBF 35 WNW HLC 30 NW GCK 40 S LBL 45 NW CDS 35 SE CDS 30 NW ADM 50 WSW ARG 35 E JBR 35 W UOX 55 ESE SHV 35 SE BPT. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... RATHER BENIGN PATTERN WILL EVOLVE OVER THE CONUS TOMORROW WITH THE NRN STREAM/MAIN BELT OF WLYS CONFINED TO SRN CANADA. WITHIN THE WLYS...THE WEAKENING REMNANTS OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH NOW OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY WILL EJECT EWD OVER NRN NEW ENGLAND ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. WEAK INSTABILITY IN A NARROW CORRIDOR E OF THE COLD FRONT MAY SUPPORT A FEW /MAINLY DIURNAL/ THUNDERSTORMS IN A BROKEN BAND ALONG THE FRONT...BUT MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND THE WEAKENING MID LEVEL TROUGH SUGGEST THAT THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE MINIMAL. FARTHER W...A LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE REGIME IS FORECAST OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS AREA. THIS UPSLOPE FLOW...IN CONJUNCTION WITH A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS/SRN ROCKIES...SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THIS AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. ...FL E COAST AREA... HURRICANE JEANNE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE FL E COAST LATE IN THE PERIOD /SEE LATEST NHC FORECASTS FOR DETAILS/. DEPENDING ON THE SPEED OF MOTION OF THE HURRICANE...A MARGINAL THREAT FOR MINI SUPERCELLS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE FL E COAST AREA BY SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. STILL...ANY MORE SUBSTANTIAL SUPERCELL/TORNADO THREAT WILL LIKELY BE DELAYED UNTIL BEYOND THIS PERIOD. ..THOMPSON.. 09/24/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Sep 24 16:48:57 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 24 Sep 2004 11:48:57 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200409241649.i8OGnQd07119@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 241647 SWODY2 SPC AC 241647 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1147 AM CDT FRI SEP 24 2004 VALID 251200Z - 261200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 E MIA 45 ESE FMY 40 SSW AGR 30 SW ORL 15 N DAB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W CTY 30 SSE SSI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE BOS 20 ESE POU 35 WNW ILG 45 NNE SHD 40 NNW SSU 25 WSW CRW UNI 10 N FKL 30 NE ROC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW FHU 35 SSW SOW 10 ENE CEZ 30 WSW 4FC 20 SE BFF 10 NE MHN 25 ENE LBF 35 WNW HLC 30 NW GCK 40 S LBL 45 NW CDS 35 SE CDS 30 NW ADM 50 WSW ARG 35 E JBR 35 W UOX 55 ESE SHV 35 SE BPT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ON SATURDAY NIGHT ALONG THE ERN FL PENINSULA... ...FL E COAST... PER LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY...CENTER OF HURRICANE JEANNE IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY NEAR THE ERN FL COAST BY 12Z SUNDAY. THIS SUGGESTS THAT A PRECEDING INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL LIKELY OCCUR ON SATURDAY NIGHT ALONG THE COAST WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR MINI SUPERCELLS AND BRIEF TORNADOES. ...ERN NY/WRN NEW ENGLAND... DE-AMPLIFYING MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EWD ACROSS SERN CANADA WITH 30-60M HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREADING THE NERN STATES ON SATURDAY. ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EWD AT THIS TIME AND LIKELY BE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. DESPITE RATHER MODEST LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S WILL LARGELY AID IN PRE-FRONTAL AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION WITH MLCAPES APPROACHING 500-700 J/KG DURING TIME OF PEAK HEATING. WHEN COUPLED WITH UNDIRECTIONAL WSWLY WINDS INCREASING TO 40-50 KTS IN THE 4-6 KM AGL LAYER...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FEW ORGANIZED TSTMS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS. THIS THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH BY EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND COLLAPSE OF BOUNDARY-LAYER. ...SRN NM/FAR WRN TX... LITTLE CHANGE TO LARGE-SCALE ENVIRONMENT IS ANTICIPATED BETWEEN TODAY AND SATURDAY. DAYTIME HEATING COUPLED WITH MODESTLY COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES OF -12 TO -14 C AT 500 MB ARE EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES BY AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPES APPROACHING 600-800 J/KG. PERSISTENT SELY UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY-LAYER SHOULD AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION ALONG OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED LOCATIONS DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. THOUGH THE MAGNITUDE OF TROPOSPHERIC WINDS IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAK...STRONG VEERING WITH HEIGHT /PARTICULARLY IN THE LOWEST 2-3 KM AGL/ ALONG WITH THE STEEP LAPSE RATES MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED...STRONG UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ..MEAD.. 09/24/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Sep 25 07:27:43 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 25 Sep 2004 02:27:43 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200409250728.i8P7SAd31798@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 250726 SWODY2 SPC AC 250724 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0224 AM CDT SAT SEP 25 2004 VALID 261200Z - 271200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW CTY 45 WNW AYS 45 SE AGS 35 SW CRE ...CONT... 20 SSE PBI 35 E FMY 10 SSW SRQ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE FHU 10 WNW SOW 15 N DRO 60 E GUC 20 SE LIC 50 ENE LAA 25 ENE LBL 30 E CSM 15 S DUA 10 ENE TYR 25 SSW LFK 20 ENE GLS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S TLH 15 NNE ABY 45 NW AGS 45 SE CLT 15 SW HSE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CMX 15 SW IWD 65 ENE STC 35 W AXN 60 NNE ABR 45 SE DVL 55 W RRT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SE ATLANTIC COAST.... ...SYNOPSIS... ASIDE FROM HURRICANE JEANNE...THE PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS WILL CONSIST OF THE MAIN BELT OF WLYS NEAR AND N OF THE CANADIAN BORDER. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD AND AMPLIFY OVER ONTARIO LATE IN THE PERIOD WHILE AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS/MN. THE NWD RETURN OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT...AIDED BY SOME SURFACE EVAPOTRANSPIRATION...MAY RESULT IN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM ERN ND TO NRN MN DURING THE EVENING. FARTHER S...A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE SRN NM/FAR W TX AREA. LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW AND BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S ACROSS NM AND 60S ACROSS CENTRAL/W TX SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN A BROADER RAIN AREA. ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LIMITED BY THE CUMULATIVE EFFECTS OF CONVECTION THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS...AS WELL AS BY WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR. ...SE ATLANTIC COAST... HURRICANE JEANNE IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL TONIGHT ALONG THE E COAST OF FL...AND A GRADUAL TURN TO THE N IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA SUNDAY /SEE LATEST NHC ADVISORIES FOR DETAILS/. AS THE HURRICANE CORE MOVES INLAND...THE REGION OF GREATER INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR N THROUGH E OF THE CENTER WILL REACH THE FL COAST...SUPPORTING THE THREAT FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS/TORNADOES. ..THOMPSON.. 09/25/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Sep 25 16:51:54 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 25 Sep 2004 11:51:54 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200409251652.i8PGqJd30900@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 251650 SWODY2 SPC AC 251649 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1149 AM CDT SAT SEP 25 2004 VALID 261200Z - 271200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE PBI 35 E FMY 10 SSW SRQ ...CONT... 25 WNW CTY 45 WNW AYS 30 E AGS 10 SSW CRE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CMX 15 SW IWD 65 ENE STC 35 W AXN 60 NNE ABR 45 SE DVL 55 W RRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE FHU 10 WNW SOW 20 S DRO 25 NNW ALS 25 WSW LHX 35 E LAA 35 SW DDC 30 E CSM 15 S DUA 10 ENE TYR 25 SSW LFK 20 ENE GLS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S TLH 15 NNE ABY 45 NW AGS 45 SE CLT 15 SW HSE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SW MSO 25 NNW LWT 25 SSE MLS 35 SSW 81V 35 NNW RWL 40 NE EVW 25 NNW BYI 60 NNE BOI 45 SW MSO. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SERN ATLANTIC COAST... ...SYNOPSIS... SPLIT FLOW PATTERN IS FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS THROUGH THE DAY 2 PERIOD. BUILDING HEIGHTS ACROSS WRN CANADA AND A RESULTANT DEEPENING OF DOWNSTREAM TROUGH OVER CNTRL CANADA/N-CNTRL U.S. WILL RESULT IN AN OVERALL AMPLIFICATION TO NRN STREAM BRANCH. MEANWHILE...A RATHER DEEP TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST IN THE SRN STREAM OVER THE S-CNTRL STATES. AT THE SURFACE...BAROCLINIC ZONE ATTENDANT TO N-CNTRL U.S. TROUGH WILL PUSH SEWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCUS FOR PRIMARILY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED...DIURNAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER ERN ND AND MN...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE NRN ROCKIES WHERE AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME WEAKLY UNSTABLE. ELSEWHERE...BROAD REGION OF LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT INVOF SRN STREAM TROUGH SHOULD SUSTAIN SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS OVER PARTS OF NM AND TX. ...SE ATLANTIC COAST... LATEST NHC GUIDANCE HAS THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JEANNE OVER THE CNTRL PENINSULA AT THE ONSET OF THE FORECAST...WITH A SUBSEQUENT NNWWD MOVEMENT INTO S-CNTRL GA BY MONDAY MORNING. THIS MOTION WILL ALLOW REGION OF GREATER INSTABILITY AND STRONGER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR /AND INHERENT TORNADO THREAT/ TO SPREAD NWD ALONG THE MIDDLE TO UPPER ERN FL PENINSULA THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE GA/SC COASTS ON SUNDAY NIGHT. ..MEAD.. 09/25/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Sep 26 17:27:15 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 26 Sep 2004 12:27:15 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200409261727.i8QHRbd05934@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 261725 SWODY2 SPC AC 261724 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1224 PM CDT SUN SEP 26 2004 VALID 271200Z - 281200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NNE MLB 25 S CTY 20 SE MGR 45 ENE MCN 30 ENE CLT 55 E DAN 25 NE ORF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ENE AQQ 10 SSW CSG 20 WSW GSP 25 NE CHO 30 ESE DOV. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 E DUG 30 E SAD 40 N SAD 30 NE SOW 15 SW GUP 10 SW FMN 25 ESE MTJ 45 SW CAG 50 ESE EVW 40 SW TWF 75 NW OWY 45 NNE BNO 35 NNW BKE 15 NW S80 40 WSW 3DU 30 S SHR 40 WNW CDR 20 NW VTN 15 WNW FSD 60 NNE EAU 50 NNW GRB 10 WSW MTW 25 WSW OTM CNK 35 W P28 15 ENE SEP 25 ENE CRP. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE SERN ATLANTIC COAST... ...SYNOPSIS... POSITIVELY-TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN NRN BRANCH OF WESTERLIES IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY THROUGH THE DAY 2 PERIOD AS IT TRANSLATES SEWD FROM CNTRL CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. INCREASING SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL ALLOW REMNANT JEANNE CIRCULATION TO ACCELERATE NEWD ALONG THE SERN U.S. COAST. MEANWHILE TO THE SW... MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN WHILE NEXT UPSTREAM LOW GRADUALLY MOVES ONTO THE CNTRL CA COAST. AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO THE NRN STREAM TROUGH WILL PUSH SEWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND CNTRL PLAINS AND WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. PERSISTENT SURFACE RIDGE AXIS FROM THE OH VALLEY INTO LOWER MO VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT DEGREE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF FRONT. RESULTANT WEAK INSTABILITY AND MINIMAL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ALONG FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ...SERN ATLANTIC COAST... LATEST SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS VARYING SOLUTIONS ON MOVEMENT OF JEANNE CIRCULATION WITH THE OPERATIONAL ETA AND SHORT-RANGE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS BEING SLOWER TO MOVE SYSTEM NEWD THAN THE GFS AND ECMWF. AHEAD OF THIS LOW...EXPECT MARITIME TROPICAL AIRMASS /CHARACTERIZED DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S/ TO MOVE ONTO THE GA/CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN...TO THE E OF SW-NE ORIENTED BAROCLINIC ZONE WHICH WILL LIKELY INTENSIFY NEAR THE TRANSITION TO PIEDMONT REGION. DESPITE NEARLY MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES...THIS MOISTURE ALONG WITH DIABATIC HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES OF 500 TO LOCALLY 1000-1500 J/KG. RADIAL BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND FIELDS WILL DIMINISH WITH TIME OWING TO FRICTIONAL EFFECTS...HOWEVER THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY INCREASE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ACROSS INSTABILITY AXIS. MOREOVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL REMAIN MODERATELY STRONG AHEAD OF LOW NWD OR NEWD ALONG BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH 0-1KM SRH OF 150-250 M2/S2. CLUSTERS OR BANDS OF MINI SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM JUST NE OF THE SURFACE LOW NEWD ACROSS WEAKLY-CAPPED WARM SECTOR OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES WILL BE GREATEST AS THESE STORMS CROSS ZONE OF ENHANCE NEAR-GROUND SHEAR INVOF ANTICIPATED SURFACE BOUNDARY. A POSSIBLE UPGRADE TO MODERATE RISK ON SUBSEQUENT DAY 1 OUTLOOKS MAY BE CONSIDERED ONCE MESOSCALE DETAILS BECOME MORE CERTAIN ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA. ..MEAD.. 09/26/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Sep 27 15:49:56 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 27 Sep 2004 10:49:56 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200409271551.i8RFpUd03258@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 271545 SWODY2 SPC AC 271544 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1044 AM CDT MON SEP 27 2004 VALID 281200Z - 291200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CRE FLO SOP RDU WAL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW FHU GBN DAG NID 40 SW TVL 50 W RNO 20 NNW RNO 65 ENE TPH MLF U28 45 SE VEL RKS BPI PIH 40 SSW MHS 25 NE ACV 45 SE OTH DLS 50 NNE 4OM ...CONT... 50 N FCA 50 E HLN 50 NNE BIL OLF 35 NNE ISN MOT BIS MBG MHN LBF SLN EMP 40 ENE BVO MLC DAL 25 SSE DRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW CTY AYS AGS AHN 50 WNW AND AVL 25 SSW JFK. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS NERN SC...ERN NC...SERN VA... ...SYNOPSIS... ON SYNOPTIC SCALE...JUMBLED UPPER AIR PATTERN FCST TO CONTINUE THROUGH DAY-2 WITH SEVERAL WEAK SRN STREAM SHORTWAVES OVER S-CENTRAL/WRN CONUS...POSITIVELY TILTED NRN STREAM TROUGH CROSSING GREAT LAKES/NEW ENGLAND...AND EJECTING REMAINS OF TC JEANNE. LATTER WILL BE PRIMARY FACTOR IN THIS OUTLOOK...AS IT DEAMPLIFIES AND ACCELERATES NEWD...MOVING OFFSHORE NC/VA DURING MIDDLE-LATTER PART OF PERIOD. LOW LEVEL REMAINS OF JEANNE ARE FCST TO LINK WITH NRN STREAM COLD FRONT OVER PIEDMONT OF CAROLINAS BY BEGINNING OF PERIOD...BEFORE SYSTEM MOVES OFFSHORE MID ATLANTIC/TIDEWATER REGIONS IN ASSOCIATION WITH PROGRESSIVE GREAT LAKES TROUGH. ...COASTAL CAROLINAS/SERN VA... EXIT-PHASE SUPERCELL/TORNADO EPISODE MAY BE ONGOING AT BEGINNING OF PERIOD AS REMAINS OF JEANNE APCH ATLANTIC COAST. BASED ON LATEST NHC FCST POSITION OF CENTER...VERY MOIST AND AT LEAST WEAKLY BUOYANT PREFRONTAL AIR MASS...AND ASSOCIATED POSITIONING OF FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES NE-SE OF CENTER...THREAT SHOULD SHIFT NEWD FROM ERN NC ACROSS SERN VA THROUGH APPROXIMATELY 00Z. TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE THROUGH MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS INSOLATION MAXIMIZES SBCAPE TO AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG IN RELATIVELY CLOUD-FREE AREAS...THEN WEAKEN DRASTICALLY THEREAFTER AS SYSTEM EXITS REGION. DESPITE DIMINISHING NATURE OF AMBIENT KINEMATIC FIELDS...NET SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN FAVORABLE AS SFC FLOW WEAKENS FASTER THAN LOW-MIDLEVEL WINDS. THIS IS NOT WELL-DEPICTED BY ETA...WHICH ALSO FAILS TO ISALLOBARICALLY FORCE BACKED BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AHEAD OF REMNANT LOW. ACCORDINGLY MODIFIED MODEL SOUNDINGS/HODOGRAPHS SUGGEST 0-1 KM SRH 250-400 J/KG E OF LOW. ...S-CENTRAL/WRN CONUS... SLOW-MOVING MID-UPPER TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER SRN NM AND FAR W TX -- IS FCST TO MOVE ENEWD TO RED RIVER REGION AND WEAKEN SOMEWHAT. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE FOR ANOTHER DAY TO CONVECTION THAT SHOULD REMAIN NONSEVERE BECAUSE OF SMALL LAPSE RATES AND WEAK SHEAR. COMPACT BUT WELL DEFINED UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER ERN MT AND PROVIDE FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES TO ITS S OVER WY...BUT LIMITED MOISTURE SHOULD PRECLUDE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF REMAINDER OF WRN CONUS AS WELL...ASSOCIATED WITH OROGRAPHIC ASCENT...MARGINAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND WEAK LARGE SCALE DESTABILIZATION PROVIDED BY SEVERAL OTHER MIDLEVEL PERTURBATIONS. ..EDWARDS.. 09/27/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Sep 28 07:13:29 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 28 Sep 2004 02:13:29 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200409280715.i8S7F0d30285@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 280711 SWODY2 SPC AC 280710 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0210 AM CDT TUE SEP 28 2004 VALID 291200Z - 301200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WSW FHU 25 S PHX 45 NW IGM 40 NW NID 15 E FAT 25 NNE RBL 25 WSW LMT 10 E RDM 15 ENE ALW 10 WSW S06 45 NNE 3DU 20 S BIL 20 NNE GCC 40 SSW REJ 35 NW MBG 50 NNW TVF 45 WSW INL 30 NNE STC 10 SE OTG 25 SE BUB 55 SW HLC 45 ENE DHT 15 SW LBB 10 E MAF 40 ESE P07. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW PNS 55 SW SEM 0A8 15 ENE BHM 30 NW ATL 45 WNW AGS 25 ENE SAV. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... A BROAD MID LEVEL LOW IS FORMING OVER CA AND THIS LOW WILL MOVE EWD TO THE SRN GREAT BASIN TOMORROW. IN ADVANCE OF THIS LOW...PERSISTENT LOW-MID LEVEL ASCENT OVER THE RIM WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MOISTENING AND INCREASING THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE FROM TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED TO SPREAD EWD INTO NM. THOUGH INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG /MUCAPE VALUES NEAR 500 J/KG/...35-50 KT SWLY FLOW IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER AND LOW-LEVEL SELY WINDS WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SE AZ EWD INTO SW NM. THE MOST PERSISTENT/INTENSE STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND STRONG OUTFLOW GUSTS. OTHERWISE...WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN W IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD MID LEVEL COLD POOL...STEEP LAPSE RATES...AND SURFACE HEATING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. FARTHER NE...ISOLATED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO OCCUR ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS/NW MN IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL EJECT EWD FROM MT BY TOMORROW. HOWEVER...STORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED BY MARGINAL MOISTURE RETURN AND AT BEST WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY. LASTLY...A WEAK WAVE IS FORECAST TO FORM ACROSS THE AL AREA ALONG A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE TRAILING THE REMNANTS OF JEANNE...AND IN ADVANCE OF AN EJECTING LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE SRN PLAINS. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS AL/GA AS THE L0W LEVELS DESTABILIZE...THOUGH THE ETA APPEARS TO BE OVER-ESTIMATING INSTABILITY IN THIS AREA AS A RESULT OF THE SHALLOW CONVECTIVE SCHEME IN THE MODEL. ..THOMPSON.. 09/28/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.