[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 220737
SWODY2
SPC AC 220736

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0236 AM CDT FRI OCT 22 2004

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE
TYR 45 ENE LIT 30 NNE SLO 20 WNW JVL 40 NNW EAU 10 NW DLH 80 N IWD
35 E CMX 35 NNW TVC AZO 30 W MIE 25 SSW LUK 30 SW LOZ 10 ESE HSV 35
WSW TCL 15 NNW HEZ 50 ENE LFK 40 NNE TYR.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 115 NE APN 10 ESE ERI
MGW 20 E TRI 20 E AHN SEM 15 W MCB 45 N HOU 30 SE SAT 20 WNW LRD.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 S MRF 35 WNW P07
FTW 40 SSE HRO 20 SSW SPI 35 ESE DBQ 35 SE MKT 60 N ATY 25 SSW GFK
15 NNW RRT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 N FCA 20 N MSO 55
SSW 3DU 50 ESE BKE 75 NNW BNO 15 SW MFR 50 SSW OTH.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE MS...LWR OH
AND TN VLYS...

...SYNOPSIS...
NRN PART OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE SRN GRT BASIN EXPECTED TO
ACCELERATE NE ACROSS THE UPR MS VLY/UPR GRT LKS ON SATURDAY AS SRN
PART SHEARS ENE FROM THE SRN PLNS INTO THE TN VLY.  ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW...LIKELY TO BE OVER CNTRL MN AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD...SHOULD LIFT NNE INTO NW ONTARIO.  TRAILING COLD FRONT
SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES E/NE ACROSS THE MID MS/LWR OH VLYS...
WHILE SRN PART BECOMES QUASISTATIONARY OVER E TX AND THE LWR MS VLY.


...UPR MS VLY...
STRONG/DEEP FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH NRN PART OF EJECTING
SHORTWAVE IMPULSE...COUPLED WITH SUSTAINED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ALONG COLD FRONT...SHOULD SUPPORT A NARROW LINE OF FORCED CONVECTION
OVER PARTS OF WI AND PERHAPS WRN/NRN MI ON SATURDAY.  WHILE SOME OF
THIS ACTIVITY MAY CONTINUE FROM THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...MODEST SURFACE
HEATING AND INFLUX OF BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S
SHOULD ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT/STRENGTHENING BY MIDDAY AS 
MLCAPE RISES TO NEAR 1000 J/KG.  GIVEN PROXIMITY OF 60 KT SSWLY MID
LEVEL JET...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS/SMALL SCALE
BOWS WITH HIGH WIND/MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED
TORNADO.  THE STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN AS THEY CONTINUE E/NEWD LATER IN
THE DAY AS BREADTH OF SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY AXIS WILL REMAIN
RATHER LIMITED.

...LWR MS INTO LWR OH/TN VLYS...
A SEPARATE AREA OF SOMEWHAT CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST
FROM THE LWR OH VLY SW INTO THE LWR MS AND TN VLYS...WHERE A BAND OF
MODERATE TO STRONG /50-60 KT/ SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD
EXISTING BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH WARM CONVEYOR BELT. 
ARRIVAL OF STRONGER FLOW...COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING...MAY BE
SUFFICIENT TO POSE A THREAT FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS/BOWING SEGMENTS
WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM DURING THE AFTERNOON.  SEVERE POTENTIAL
WILL...HOWEVER...BE LIMITED BY WEAK LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
THE RATHER LOW PROSPECTS FOR SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE HEATING.  A FEW
STRONG STORMS MAY...NEVERTHELESS...CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING ALONG
TRAILING SRN PART OF COMPLEX OVER LA/MS.  KINEMATIC AND
THERMODYNAMIC SETUP IN THIS REGION WILL LIKELY FAVOR SOME
BACK-BUILDING/UPSTREAM DEVELOPMENT LATER IN THE PERIOD.

..CORFIDI.. 10/22/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.