From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Oct 2 06:51:12 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 02 Oct 2004 01:51:12 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200410020652.i926qot06697@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 020650 SWODY2 SPC AC 020649 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0149 AM CDT SAT OCT 02 2004 VALID 031200Z - 041200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SW DMN 50 SW SOW 35 E SGU 25 NNW U24 40 E EVW 30 E RKS 15 SSW RWL 15 SSW LAR 25 S GCK 30 E P28 10 ESE PNC 35 W MKO 10 ENE DUA 25 E SEP DRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE GPT 15 E MGM ATL 20 SW AVL 15 E GSO 35 NNW HSE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DAB 45 N PIE. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... PRONOUNCED SPLIT FLOW ACROSS CONUS WITH A STRONG NRN BRANCH TROUGH ROTATING EWD ACROSS GREAT LAKES. A WEAKER SRN BRANCH EXTENDS FROM CA EWD ACROSS SRN STATES WITH A FLAT S/WV TROUGH FORECASTED TO MOVE EWD ACROSS SRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING SEWD ACROSS CENTRAL U.S. STALLS BY SUNDAY ACROSS SERN STATES AND EXTENDS WWD ALONG GULF COAST TO S TX. REINFORCING SURGE OF POLAR AIR DROPS SEWD FROM CANADA INTO NCENTRAL U.S. WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT BY SUNDAY NIGHT REACHING FROM ERN GREAT LAKES SWWD INTO CENTRAL PLAINS. ON SUN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS SRN HI PLAINS AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT...WHICH COUPLED WITH S/WV ENERGY IN SRN BRANCH WILL CONTINUE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WITH THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER HIGHER TERRAIN SRN ROCKIES WITH AFTERNOON HEATING. WARM ADVECTION AND MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED TO SPREAD EWD ACROSS SRN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ASSOCIATED THREAT OF PRIMARILY ELEVATED CONVECTION . LIMITED LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY PRECLUDES A RISK OF SEVERE STORMS. ..HALES.. 10/02/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Oct 2 17:32:55 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 02 Oct 2004 12:32:55 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200410021734.i92HYTt30342@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 021732 SWODY2 SPC AC 021730 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1230 PM CDT SAT OCT 02 2004 VALID 031200Z - 041200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E DUG 35 SW GCN 10 W SGU 35 W U24 40 E EVW 30 E RKS 15 SSW RWL 15 SSW LAR 25 S GCK 30 E P28 10 ESE PNC 35 W MKO 10 ENE DUA 25 E SEP DRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE ORL 25 S AGR 60 NE EYW ...CONT... 20 SSE GPT 15 E MGM ATL 20 SW AVL 15 E GSO 25 ENE ECG. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... SPLIT MID-UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL PERSIST INTO DAY 2 ACROSS THE WRN STATES...AS BLOCKING UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS INLAND FROM THE ERN PACIFIC. LARGE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO NEW ENGLAND WILL BE REINFORCED ON SUNDAY BY ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY MOVING INTO NRN ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN ATTM PER WV IMAGERY...AS IT TRACKS SEWD TOWARD THE NRN GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE...SEVERAL LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL TRAVERSE EWD WITHIN THE SRN STREAM...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM SRN CA TO THE SRN ATLANTIC STATES. AT THE SURFACE...INITIAL EARLY FALL COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD AWAY FROM MUCH OF THE ERN SEABOARD ON SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD REMAIN OVER PARTS OF SC/SRN GA AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THIS REGION INDUCES A WEAK LEE TROUGH/SURFACE LOW OVER WRN SC/ERN GA. THE WRN EXTENT OF THIS COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE NRN GULF TO SRN TX. MEANWHILE...A SECOND SURGE OF COLD AIR WILL SPREAD SWD INTO THE CENTRAL STATES IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO OK AND ERN NM BY 12Z MONDAY. ...SRN NM TO SRN PLAINS... SSELY LOW-LEVEL RETURN FLOW ALONG THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND ON THE WRN PERIPHERY OF A WEAKENING SURFACE HIGH WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO SPREAD NWD INITIALLY ACROSS NM DURING THE DAY AND THEN ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES SHOULD RESULT IN AN AREA OF MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG/ OVER SWRN NM/FAR W TX. WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING TOWARD THE SRN ROCKIES COMBINED WITH SURFACE HEATING WILL ALLOW FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM THE FOUR CORNERS SEWD TO FAR W TX. 30-35 KT OF WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ATOP SSELY LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL RESULT IN STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR STORM ORGANIZATION. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SUSTAINED ACTIVITY AND A SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE OVER SWRN NM INTO FAR W TX WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE THE STRONGEST. WAA REGIME AND CONTINUED MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS WILL SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SPREADING/DEVELOPING EWD FROM NM INTO WRN TX AND POTENTIALLY WRN OK SUNDAY NIGHT. ...SC/GA... RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S/ BENEATH MODEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES /6.5 TO 7 C/KM/ WILL SUPPORT POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY IF SURFACE HEATING IS STRONG ENOUGH. MODELS SUGGEST THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF SC/SRN-SERN GA SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH. HOWEVER...WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE GIVEN DEEP WLY FLOW WOULD ARGUE AGAINST WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED STORMS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT...HOWEVER...IF STORMS DO DEVELOP FOR A FEW STRONG AND/OR SEVERE STORMS...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN 5 PERCENT. ..PETERS.. 10/02/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Oct 3 06:41:54 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 03 Oct 2004 01:41:54 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200410030643.i936hQt24118@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 030641 SWODY2 SPC AC 030640 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0140 AM CDT SUN OCT 03 2004 VALID 041200Z - 051200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW ELP 20 N ONM 25 E ABQ 10 SE TCC 15 W LBB 25 NW BGS 25 SE P07. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 E DUG 30 NNE SAD 25 SE INW 35 N FLG 40 S P38 25 SSW ELY 65 NNW ENV 40 ESE BYI 30 E BPI 40 SE RWL 30 N 4FC 15 WSW LIC 25 NW LAA 45 NNE EHA 50 E GAG 35 E OKC 40 NNE PRX 40 NNW GGG 40 NNW HOU 25 SSE LRD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W AQQ 25 NE JAX. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS OF SRN HIGH PLAINS AND SRN ROCKIES... ...SRN HIGH PLAINS AND SRN ROCKIES... PRONOUNCED SPLIT FLOW CONUS WITH SRN BRANCH FROM SWRN U.S. EWD ACROSS GULF COAST STATES. S/WV TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING EWD SRN CA INTO AZ WILL WEAKEN AS IT CROSSES SRN ROCKIES TONIGHT AS A STRONGER IMPULSE UPSTREAM ENTERS AZ MON AFTERNOON. THE FRONTAL ZONE E/W ACROSS CENTRAL TX WILL STALL AS NEW SURGE OF POLAR AIR MOVES SWD THRU CENTRAL PLAINS INTO OK WWD TO ERN NM MON. SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW RIO GRANDE VALLEY WILL PREVAIL THRU THE NEXT TWO DAYS TRANSPORTING GULF MOISTURE INTO SWRN TX AND SRN NM...PRIMARILY E OF MTNS. 30-40KT OF MID/UPR FLOW IN SRN STREAM ACROSS SRN NM INTO WRN TX WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED TSTM DEVELOPMENT. WITH 50S DEWPOINTS SPREADING NWWD INTO SRN AND ERN NM AND HIGHER MOISTURE INTO SWRN TX...ALONG WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7-8C/KM...AIR MASS EXPECTED TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE. WITH AFTERNOON HEATING MLCAPES WILL RANGE FROM 1500 J/KG VICINITY HIGHER TERRAIN SRN NM FAR SWRN TX TO GENERALLY LESS THAN 1000 J/KG SRN HIGH PLAINS TO S OF FRONTAL ZONE. SUFFICIENT SHEAR...SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL...FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BY MON AFTERNOON...WITH POSSIBLE ROTATING STORMS. PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT EXPECTED TO BE LARGE HAIL GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MARGINAL FOR A WIND DAMAGE/TORNADO THREAT. ..HALES.. 10/03/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Oct 3 17:14:24 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 03 Oct 2004 12:14:24 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200410031715.i93HFst26748@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 031713 SWODY2 SPC AC 031712 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1212 PM CDT SUN OCT 03 2004 VALID 041200Z - 051200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 W ELP 20 N ONM ABQ 10 W TCC 35 NW PVW 45 N BGS 30 SE P07. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 E DUG 30 NNE SAD 25 SE INW 35 N FLG 40 S P38 25 SSW ELY 65 NNW ENV 40 ESE BYI 30 E BPI 40 SE RWL 30 N 4FC 15 WSW LIC 25 NW LAA 45 NNE EHA 50 E GAG 35 E OKC 35 NE TXK 20 SSW POE 15 WSW GLS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W AQQ 25 NE JAX ...CONT... 35 NNE SSI 45 NNE SAV 15 W FLO 15 N GSB 25 SE ORF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN HIGH PLAINS AND SRN ROCKIES... ...SYNOPSIS... SPLIT FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WRN STATES ON MONDAY WITH AN EWD SHIFT IN THE BLOCKING UPPER RIDGE TOWARD THE ROCKIES...AS STRONG HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NERN PACIFIC WITH THE APPROACH OF A STRONG TROUGH. SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION ATTM PER WV IMAGERY WILL WEAKEN MONDAY AS IT MOVES EWD ACROSS TX...AND A STRONGER UPSTREAM TROUGH...CURRENTLY OFF THE CA COAST...WILL APPROACH AZ. ...SRN HIGH PLAINS AND SRN ROCKIES... SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WITHIN THE SRN STREAM WILL REMAIN THE FOCI FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON DAY 2 AS THEY MOVE EWD ATOP A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER EXTENDING FROM THE SRN ROCKIES TO TX. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION IS EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS NRN TX...AS A STRONG SURFACE HIGH BUILDS SEWD ACROSS THE MS VALLEY. SSELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ALONG THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND CENTRAL/SRN TX WILL MAINTAIN SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS WITH MID-UPPER 60S ACROSS SRN/CENTRAL TX. ONE OR TWO CLUSTER OF STORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD OVER WRN/CENTRAL TX AND POTENTIALLY SRN OK WITHIN WAA REGIME ATOP COOL/STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS. THIS ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST AS IT MOVES ESEWD ACROSS CENTRAL TX MONDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON...BUT IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY AS THE LLJ WEAKENS. SURFACE HEATING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SRN NM/FAR SWRN TX COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS THIS REGION...SIMILAR TO VALUES EXPECTED IN THE DAY 1 PERIOD. SOMEWHAT WEAKER LAPSE RATES FARTHER EAST ACROSS WRN TX AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM MORNING STORMS SHOULD RESULT IN A LESS INSTABILITY OVER THIS AREA. NONETHELESS...25-30 KT OF WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ATOP SELY LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR STORM ORGANIZATION WITH ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. INSTABILITY/SHEAR VALUES WILL SUPPORT ROTATING STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREAT. STRENGTHENING LLJ ACROSS WRN TX INTO SWRN OK MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUATION OF THUNDERSTORMS...WITH ACTIVITY LIKELY INCREASING IN COVERAGE AS IT DEVELOPS/SPREADS EWD ACROSS NRN TX/RED RIVER VALLEY. ..PETERS.. 10/03/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Oct 4 06:43:17 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 04 Oct 2004 01:43:17 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200410040644.i946ijt19159@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 040642 SWODY2 SPC AC 040640 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0140 AM CDT MON OCT 04 2004 VALID 051200Z - 061200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW DMN 45 WNW TCS 35 WSW ABQ 25 ESE LVS 25 SSW DHT 10 SSW AMA 20 SE PVW 30 NNW BGS 30 SE MAF 15 S P07. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 E DUG 35 N SAD 20 NW SOW 15 NE GCN 50 ESE SGU 15 WSW MLF 30 S DPG 25 WSW OGD 20 SW RKS 45 NE CAG 20 NE FCL 45 W GLD 30 ENE GCK 35 WSW P28 50 SSW END 40 W OKC 35 ESE SPS 35 SE DAL 10 ENE BPT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W CTY 15 E JAX. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SRN ROCKIES AND SRN HIGH PLAINS... ...SRN ROCKIES/SRN HIGH PLAINS... LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE TO PATTERN OVER SRN ROCKIES/SRN PLAINS AS WEAK IMPULSES CONTINUE TO TRACK ACROSS AREA IN SRN BRANCH OF WESTERLIES. MODELS SUGGEST THAT SOME INCREASE IN AMPLITUDE COULD OCCUR OVER SRN ROCKIES ON TUE. WITH THE LARGE HIGH OVER THE ERN U.S... A SELY FLOW OF MOIST GULF AIR WILL PERSIST FROM WRN TX INTO NM. WRN EXTENT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN E OF NM/AZ BORDER WITH GREATER AMOUNTS TO E OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. WITH HEATING AIR MASS WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE DURING THE AFTERNOON SUPPORTING DEVELOPMENT OF ACTIVE CONVECTION. WITH LAPSE RATES TO NEAR 8C/KM AND 30-35 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR...A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY WITH LARGE HAIL PRIMARY THREAT. SLY LOW LEVEL JET FORECASTED TO INCREASE TO 30-40 KT TX PANHANDLE BY EVENING WHICH WILL ENHANCE WARM ADVECTION AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT. AFTERNOON STORMS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF NM COULD THEN EVOLVE INTO MORE OF AN MCS AS THEY DEVELOP EWD INTO THE LOW LEVEL JET. ..HALES.. 10/04/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Oct 4 16:58:25 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 04 Oct 2004 11:58:25 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200410041659.i94Gxpt23678@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 041657 SWODY2 SPC AC 041656 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1156 AM CDT MON OCT 04 2004 VALID 051200Z - 061200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSW DMN 75 NNW SVC 50 SW GNT 10 ESE ABQ 25 SW TCC 15 NE CVS 25 WSW LBB 45 NW BGS 25 S MAF P07. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W CTY 15 E JAX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E DUG 45 NNE SAD 25 ESE INW 30 ENE GCN 50 ESE SGU 15 WSW MLF 30 S DPG 25 WSW OGD 20 SW RKS 45 NE CAG 20 NE FCL 45 W GLD 30 ENE GCK 35 WSW P28 50 SSW END 40 W OKC 35 ESE SPS 35 SE DAL 10 ENE BPT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SRN NM AND FAR W TX... ...SYNOPSIS... A SLOW MOVING TROUGH EVOLVING ACROSS SRN CA TODAY WILL GRADUALLY MOVE INTO THE DESERTS EARLY TUESDAY AND THE SRN HIGH PLAINS BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. A LEAD IMPULSE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS NM AND FAR W TX TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE...A FRONT IS LIKELY TO BE LOCATED ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...AUGMENTED BY SEVERAL DAYS OF SRN HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION. THE FRONT AND APPROACHING IMPULSE WILL FOCUS THE SEVERE POTENTIAL ON TUESDAY. ...SRN NM AND W TX... CONVECTION COULD BE ONGOING ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS FROM ERN NM INTO FAR W TX EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. COOL OUTFLOW WILL LIKELY AUGMENT THE ELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW ALL THE WAY TO THE DIVIDE... ADVECTING/MAINTAINING UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS. THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BENEATH STEEP MID-TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS SRN NM AND W TX THROUGH TUESDAY. STRONGEST SIGNAL FOR SEVERE TSTMS APPEARS TO BE ALONG THE DIVIDE FROM SRN NM INTO CHIHUAHUA TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHERE HEATING WILL OCCUR. SBCAPES NEAR 1000 J/KG AND APPROACHING JET STREAK WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR TSTMS TO INITIATE ALONG THE SRN NM MOUNTAINS BY MID-AFTERNOON. FARTHER EAST...DEBRIS CLOUDS/CONVECTION SHOULD MAINTAIN A COOL BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO W TX. VERTICAL SHEAR IN THE LOWEST 6 KM OF 40-45 KTS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. HOWEVER...OVER A SMALL PART OF SRN NM AND EXTREME W TX WHERE LCLS/SRH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENTLY LOW/HIGH RESPECTIVELY...A TORNADO OR TWO IS POSSIBLE. ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE/DEVELOP EWD TOWARD THE PLAINS/W TX DURING THE EVENING AS THE 50 KT JET STREAK EMERGES ONTO THE PLAINS. IT IS NOT CERTAIN IF ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS AS FAR NE AS ECNTRL NM/WRN TX PNHDL TUESDAY NIGHT. THE ERN/NRN PARTS OF THE SLGT RISK AREA WILL REMAIN CONDITIONAL. THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO WILL BE FOR THE STRONGEST TSTMS TO DEVELOP/MOVE SEWD INTO FAR SW TX WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE HIGHER AND MASS CONVERGENCE WILL BE STRONGER. ..RACY.. 10/04/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Oct 5 06:29:56 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 05 Oct 2004 01:29:56 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200410050631.i956VLt09461@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 050629 SWODY2 SPC AC 050628 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0128 AM CDT TUE OCT 05 2004 VALID 061200Z - 071200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W ELP 60 S GNT 40 W FMN 40 NNE CEZ ASE 45 ENE FCL 30 SSE FSD 30 NE RST 40 NW CGX 35 NW SPI 15 WNW COU 40 NNE JLN 30 NNW FSM 20 W TXK 25 E POE 30 SE HUM. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... TROUGH OVER SRN ROCKIES SHIFTS SLOWLY EWD INTO HIGH PLAINS BY END OF FORECAST PERIOD. LARGE SURFACE HIGH ERN U.S. WILL MAINTAIN A SLY FLOW OF GULF MOISTURE FROM SRN PLAINS NEWD TO MS RIVER VALLEY. INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATEST UNDER COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGH ERN NM INTO SWRN TX WITH REDUCED INSTABILITY FURTHER E WHERE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND WEAKER LAPSE RATES WILL PREVAIL. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE COMMON BY AFTERNOON FROM THE TROUGH AXIS EWD INTO CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS GIVEN THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING NWD ON THE 25-35 KT LOW LEVEL JET. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MOST ANYWHERE FROM THE TROUGH AXIS EWD INTO WRN OK/TX. HOWEVER LACK OF COVERAGE AND SOME QUESTION ON THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER SUPPORT PRECLUDES OUTLOOKING A RISK AREA ATTM. ..HALES.. 10/05/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Oct 5 16:58:12 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 05 Oct 2004 11:58:12 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200410051659.i95GxZt24997@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 051657 SWODY2 SPC AC 051656 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1156 AM CDT TUE OCT 05 2004 VALID 061200Z - 071200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W ELP 40 SSW GUP 40 SW CEZ 40 NNE CEZ ASE 45 ENE FCL 30 SSE FSD 30 NE RST 40 NW CGX 35 NW SPI 15 WNW COU 40 NNE JLN 30 NNW FSM 20 W TXK 25 E POE 30 SE HUM. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER LOW VCNTY FOUR-CORNERS AREA TODAY IS EXPECTED TO TURN NE AND BECOME AN OPEN WAVE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. SRN PORTION OF THE TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS/ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE...CYCLOGENESIS WILL TAKE PLACE OVER ERN CO. FRONT SITUATED FROM SERN TX TO ERN NM WILL LIFT NEWD INTO NCNTRL TX-WRN KS LINE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHILE A LEE TROUGH STRENGTHENS SOUTH OF THE LOW THROUGH CNTRL NM. ...CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS... MODELS DIVERGE ON EVOLUTION OF APPROACHING TROUGH. WHILE BOTH MODELS AGREE THAT THE STRONGER PORTION OF THE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...GFS KEEPS SRN PARTS OF THE TROUGH IN NM LONGER THAN THE ETA. THIS SCENARIO MAY VERY WELL BE CORRECT. MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ANOTHER IMPULSE BEGINNING TO DIG SEWD INTO CNTRL CA ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH...LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO A SLOWER AND STRONGER SRN PORTION OF THE TROUGH AS THE GFS SUGGESTS. SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL MAINTAIN/ADVECT UPPER 50S-LOWER 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS ACROSS SWRN TX/ERN NM NWD INTO WRN KS/EXTREME ERN CO THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. STEEPEST LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY EXIST ALONG WRN PORTION OF THIS MOIST AXIS...CONTRIBUTING TO THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS FAR W TX AND ERN NM. INSTABILITY VALUES WILL BE LOWER FARTHER N AND E ACROSS THE ADJACENT CNTRL/SRN PLAINS. STRONGEST H5 HEIGHT FALLS WILL LIKELY OCCUR FROM CO NEWD INTO NEB/WRN KS. IN WAKE OF MORNING CONVECTION...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS ERN CO AND EXPAND NEWD DURING THE EVENING AS LARGE SCALE FORCING SPREADS NEWD. STORMS ARE LIKELY TO EVOLVE INTO LOOSELY ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS AND COULD PRODUCE ISOLD DAMAGING WIND/HAIL...THOUGH WEAK INSTABILITY WILL MITIGATE WIDESPREAD SEVERE TSTMS. TSTMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FARTHER S ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF ERN NM AND FAR W TX WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHERE HEATING IS APT TO BE STRONGEST. THE STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL HAVE IMPACTS ON MAGNITUDE AND LOCATION OF THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY. THE UNCERTAINTY THAT EXISTS MAKES PLACING A CATEGORICAL SLGT RISK DIFFICULT. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES ATTM. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT TSTMS WILL EVOLVE INTO ONE OR MORE MCS OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY AND MOVE EWD ONTO THE SRN PLAINS AS FAR EAST AS CNTRL OK AND NWRN TX WITH ATTENDANT DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL. FINALLY...FARTHER W...COLD POCKET ALOFT MAY CONTRIBUTE TO HIGH BASED TSTMS ACROSS NWRN NM THAT MAY GIVE ISOLD HAIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ..RACY.. 10/05/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Oct 6 07:04:54 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 06 Oct 2004 02:04:54 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200410060706.i9676Et20030@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 060700 SWODY2 SPC AC 060658 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0158 AM CDT WED OCT 06 2004 VALID 071200Z - 081200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 90 S MRF 25 S INK 35 NNW AMA 25 N DDC 10 ESE HSI 20 SSW OTG 45 WSW LNR 30 S MLI 15 WSW VIH HRO 25 WSW HOT 20 NNE BVE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SSE FMY PBI. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... TROUGH OVER SWRN U.S. PAST FEW DAYS WILL SHIFT EWD INTO CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING. SRN PORTION OF TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NRN MEXICO TOWARD SRN TX WILL INTERACT WITH THE INCREASING AREA OF TROPICAL CONVECTION IN WRN GULF OF MEXICO WITH MODELS ALL INDICATING SURFACE DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING NEAR THE SRN TX COAST BY THU NIGHT. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH REMAINING OVER ERN U.S. SLY FLOW OF MOIST GULF AIR WILL CONTINUE INTO SRN PLAINS AND SPREAD NEWD AHEAD OF WEAKENING TROUGH ACROSS LOWER MO VALLEY TOWARD WRN GREAT LAKES. WHILE CONSIDERABLE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MOIST PLUME AHEAD OF TROUGH...SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE LESS THAN EXPECTED TODAY AS INSTABILITY WEAKENS ALONG WITH THE UPPER SUPPORT PROVIDED BY THE TROUGH. AN EXCEPTION COULD BE VICINITY TX COAST LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AS TROPICAL AIR MASS NOW OVER SWRN GULF MOVES NWD AND LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW. LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING STORMS TX COAST AND IF SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS QUICKER THAN NOW FORECAST A THREAT WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES THU NIGHT. FURTHER N ACROSS TX INTO OK...ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON AMOUNT OF SURFACE HEATING THAT CAN OCCUR IN THE VERY MOIST AIR MASS...AS UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED DEEP LAYER SHEAR GRADUALLY WEAKEN. ..HALES.. 10/06/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Oct 6 17:14:19 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 06 Oct 2004 12:14:19 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200410061715.i96HFdt01992@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 061713 SWODY2 SPC AC 061712 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1212 PM CDT WED OCT 06 2004 VALID 071200Z - 081200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SSE FMY PBI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WNW MRF 20 SE CNM 30 N PVW 25 N DDC 10 ESE HSI 20 SSW OTG 45 WSW LNR 30 S MLI 15 WSW VIH HRO 25 WSW HOT 20 NNE BVE. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...UPPER TX COAST/SWRN LA... SRN PORTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH NOW OVER THE SRN ROCKIES...WILL BE MOVING EWD INTO TX LATE THURSDAY. ASSOCIATED H5 HEIGHT FALLS WILL LIKELY INDUCE A WEAK SURFACE LOW/COASTAL TROUGH ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE UPPER TX/SWRN LA COAST BY EARLY FRIDAY. BACKING LOW-MIDLEVEL FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH WILL ADVECT RICH MOISTURE NWD FROM THE WRN GULF BASIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO CONTRIBUTING TO INCREASING INSTABILITY...PARTICULARLY IN THE COASTAL PLAINS. 12Z ETA SUGGESTS THAT THE COASTAL TROUGH/LOW WILL BE STRONGER AND FARTHER N THAN THE 09Z SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLE SUGGESTS. GIVEN THAT THE MAIN PORTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL EJECT N OF THE GULF COASTAL AREA...QUESTIONS REMAIN ON HOW STRONG CYCLOGENESIS AND RESULTANT LOW-MIDLEVEL FLOW WILL BE. AS A RESULT OF STRONGER FEATURES...THE 12Z ETA FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SIGNIFICANT DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE LOWEST 3KM. ISOLD TORNADOES WOULD BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THIS SCENARIO. INHERITED OUTLOOK INTRODUCED 5 PERCENT SEVERE PROBABILITIES AND GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES HIGHLIGHTED ABOVE...THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION THIS EARLY IN THE FORECAST CYCLE IS TO MAINTAIN SUB-CATEGORICAL SLGT RISK. FUTURE OUTLOOKS MAY NEED TO ADDRESS AN UPGRADE IF THE SURFACE LOW AND VERTICAL SHEAR LOOK TO BE AS STRONG AS 12Z ETA SUGGESTS. ...SRN PLAINS... THERE WILL LIKELY SEVERAL TSTM CLUSTERS IN PROGRESS ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AS THE UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS E TX NWD TO THE OZARKS AS THE LOW-MIDLEVEL FLOW BACKS AND TAPS INTO GULF MOISTURE THROUGH THURSDAY. IT IS LIKELY THAT CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTION WILL KEEP INSOLATION AT A PREMIUM ACROSS A LARGE AREA ON THURSDAY. STRONGEST BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING WILL LIKELY OCCUR ACROSS WRN/CNTRL OK SWWD INTO CNTRL/SWRN TX ON WRN PERIPHERY OF INCREASING TROPICAL PLUME. RESIDUAL SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S BENEATH H5 TEMPERATURES NEAR MINUS 12C WILL CONTRIBUTE TO POSSIBLE TSTM DEVELOPMENT IN THESE AREAS BY MID-AFTERNOON THURSDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN WEAKENING NATURE OF THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MIDLEVEL WIND FIELDS...THE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL ALSO WEAKEN. AS SUCH...THE PROBABILITY OF ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS WILL BE LOWER...BUT SUFFICIENT FOR A LOW RISK OF LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. ..RACY.. 10/06/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Oct 7 06:28:43 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 07 Oct 2004 01:28:43 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200410070630.i976U3t30996@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 070627 SWODY2 SPC AC 070626 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0126 AM CDT THU OCT 07 2004 VALID 081200Z - 091200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW P07 55 S BGS 65 NNW ABI 10 W FSI 40 ENE OKC 10 ENE MKC 45 NW DBQ 30 N MSN 35 S MKE 55 ESE MMO 25 W MVN 25 N POF 30 WNW ARG 60 N LIT PBF 30 SW GWO 45 WSW SEM 35 WSW DHN 20 ESE PFN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE BLI 25 E SEA 35 WNW DLS 40 ENE EUG 25 N 4BK. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... A RATHER BROAD WEAK TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER SRN PLAINS AS A VIGOROUS SYSTEM MOVES ONSHORE PAC NW FRI NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER NWRN GULF OF MEXICO AS TROPICAL AIR MASS MOVES NWD FROM WRN GULF ACROSS ERN TX AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY. WHILE MODELS ALL KEEP SURFACE LOW CENTER OFFSHORE ERN TX/LA COAST THRU THE PERIOD...LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE INCREASING AS 850MB WINDS OF 30-35KT DEVELOP INLAND SERN TX/SWRN LA BY EVENING. WITH A TROPICAL ENVIRONMENT AND POTENTIALLY SFC-1KM SHEAR OF 20-25 KT...WILL CONTINUE A LOW PROBABILITY OF SEVERE NEAR THE SERN TX/LA COAST...PARTICULARLY LATER PORTION OF THE PERIOD WHEN SURFACE LOW WILL BE CLOSEST TO THE COAST. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WITH BRIEF TORNADOES. RISK IS VERY CONDITIONAL AND DEPENDENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE PROGGED SURFACE LOW. ..HALES.. 10/07/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Oct 7 16:44:59 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 07 Oct 2004 11:44:59 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200410071646.i97GkEt00409@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 071643 SWODY2 SPC AC 071642 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1142 AM CDT THU OCT 07 2004 VALID 081200Z - 091200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW MRF 10 N INK 70 S CDS 25 NE LTS 30 SSW PNC 55 NNE SZL 35 ENE DBQ 20 NNE MSN 20 NW IMT 70 WNW ANJ 40 ESE ANJ 65 ENE APN 45 ENE FNT 25 NW DNV 25 W MVN 25 N POF 30 WNW ARG 60 N LIT PBF 30 SW GWO 45 WSW SEM 35 WSW DHN 20 ESE PFN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE BLI 25 E SEA 35 WNW DLS 40 ENE EUG 25 N 4BK. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... HIGH AMPLITUDE...SPLIT UPPER FLOW REGIME EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. THE NRN PORTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS STATES NOW IS EXPECTED TO PHASE WITH THE NRN STREAM TONIGHT AND QUICKLY WEAKEN. UPSTREAM IMPULSE IN THE POLAR WLYS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TODAY WILL AMPLIFY AND DIG SEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER LOW DROPS INTO THE PAC NW. MEANWHILE..IN THE SRN STREAM...SRN PORTION OF THE PLAINS TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE ACROSS TX...EVENTUALLY CLOSING OFF AS AN UPPER LOW BY THE WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE PLAINS WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD. NRN PORTIONS WILL STRENGTHEN AND ACCELERATE EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BY EARLY SATURDAY WHILE SRN PORTIONS REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY FROM MO TO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. A LOW/COASTAL TROUGH WILL MOVE/DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COAST. ...S LA AND EXTREME ERN PORTIONS OF THE UPPER TX COASTAL PLAINS... 12Z ETA CONTINUES TO LOOK TOO STRONG WITH THE MASS FIELDS OVER THE WRN GULF BASIN AND IS THE STRONGEST OF MODELS COMPARED TO 12Z GFS AND THE 09Z SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. WHILE WEAK CYCLOGENESIS/ STRENGTHENING OF THE COASTAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED...WILL SIDE WITH THE WEAKER MODEL SOLUTIONS ATTM. THE WEAK LOW/TROUGH WILL MOVE CLOSE TO THE SABINE RIVER VLY AND SWRN LA LATE THURSDAY. TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT NWD AS LOW/MIDLEVEL FLOW BACKS ON ERN SIDES OF UPSTREAM TX UPPER TROUGH. SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE 70S AND INCREASED MOIST/WARM ADVECTION WILL SUPPORT DEEP MOIST CONVECTION OVER A LARGE PART OF THE WRN GULF AREA. LOW LEVEL VEERING AND MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGEST THAT THE THREAT FOR AN ISOLD TORNADO WILL EXIST...ESPECIALLY IF THE 12Z ETA IS CORRECT. AN ANTICIPATED WEAKER SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED WIND FIELDS...HOWEVER...SUGGEST THAT THE SEVERE RISKS WILL BE LOW AND SUB-CATEGORICAL SLGT RISK ATTM. ...GREAT LAKES REGION... STRONG RETURN FLOW WILL ADVECT MID-UPPER 50S DEW POINTS NEWD AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH/COLD FRONT THE NEXT 24-HRS. A BAND OF CONVECTION/CLOUDS IS LIKELY TO PRECEDE THE SYSTEM IN THE STRONG WARM CONVEYER AND SHOULD LIMIT INSOLATION AS THE ENHANCED UPPER SUPPORT ARRIVES LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ATTM...SEVERE TSTMS DO NOT SEEM LIKELY...BUT IF INSTABILITY ULTIMATELY IS STRONGER...LATER OUTLOOKS MAY NEED TO ADDRESS LOW PROBABILITIES OF SEVERE FROM ERN WI INTO PARTS OF MI. ..RACY.. 10/07/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Oct 8 07:25:09 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 08 Oct 2004 02:25:09 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200410080726.i987QMt09710@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 080723 SWODY2 SPC AC 080722 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0222 AM CDT FRI OCT 08 2004 VALID 091200Z - 101200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW CTY 15 ESE JAX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 E BLI 30 NNW DLS 40 W RDM 40 NNW 4BK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSE LCH 40 NW POE 10 WNW GGG DAL 35 NNW BWD 60 WSW SJT 25 SE INK 35 NNW HOB 45 SW AMA 25 E BVO 25 ENE ARG 40 ESE MKL 25 WSW MSL 25 NW TCL 35 SW SEM 35 S TLH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE PBG 15 ENE SYR 30 ENE BFD 30 SSE FDY 30 W TOL 50 E APN. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... MID/UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE DURING THE PERIOD...WITH STRONG TROUGHS AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONTS MOVING INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST. ALONG THE PAC NW COAST AND NEAR/JUST EAST OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...THERMODYNAMICS MAY FAVOR SHALLOW MOIST CONVECTION AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY IS NOT FORECAST TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THESE SYSTEMS ELSEWHERE. EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY WHERE A WEAK UPPER LOW WILL LIKELY DESTABILIZE THE AIR MASS SUFFICIENTLY FOR A THREAT OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR AHEAD OF ACCOMPANYING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERS...FROM ERN TX/LA INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COAST. ...SERN TX INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD A VERY MOIST AND WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS E-SE OF H85 LOW CENTER FORECAST TO BE OVER LA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THOUGH WEAK LAPSE RATES WILL GREATLY HAMPER POTENTIAL INSTABILITY...HIGH VALUES OF BOUNDARY LAYER THETA-E WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR WIDESPREAD MOIST CONVECTION WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN PLUME OF VERY MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. STRENGTH OF SHEAR IN THE LOWEST FEW KILOMETERS...ALONG WITH LOW LCLS...SUGGEST AT LEAST LOW PROBABILITIES OF TORNADOES/WIND DAMAGE ARE WARRANTED. ..EVANS.. 10/08/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Oct 8 16:36:45 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 08 Oct 2004 11:36:45 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200410081637.i98Gbut06015@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 081636 SWODY2 SPC AC 081634 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1134 AM CDT FRI OCT 08 2004 VALID 091200Z - 101200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW CTY 15 ESE JAX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 E BLI 30 NNW DLS 40 W RDM 40 NNW 4BK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSE LCH 30 SW ESF 20 ESE GGG DAL 35 NNW BWD 60 WSW SJT 25 SE INK 35 NNW HOB 45 SW AMA 25 NNW END 25 ENE ARG 40 ESE MKL 25 WSW MSL 25 NW TCL 35 SW SEM 35 S TLH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE PBG 15 ENE SYR 30 ENE BFD 30 SSE FDY 30 W TOL 50 E APN. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SRN PLAINS WILL EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER TX ON SATURDAY. THE LOW WILL REMAIN STATIONARY THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND...BEFORE ENERGY DROPPING SWD ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA WAVE DISLODGES IT ON SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK LOW...NOW OVER THE WRN GULF BASIN...IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO SRN LA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AND MAY BE THE FOCUS FOR ISOLD SEVERE WEATHER. ...LOWER MS VLY... 12Z ETA CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE WRN GULF BASIN WILL MOVE TO VCNTY KLCH AND THEN TO NEAR KSHV BY EARLY SUNDAY. THE EURO AND 09Z SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLES...HOWEVER...MAINTAIN PARENT LOW OFFSHORE...OR PERHAPS JUST INLAND SE LA DURING THE PERIOD. THE FARTHER SOUTH/WEAKER SOLUTIONS APPEAR CONSISTENT AND MORE REASONABLE ATTM. WARM/MOIST ADVECTION WILL MAINTAIN WAVES OF CONVECTION DOWNSTREAM FROM THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE LOWER MS VLY THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. RAIN FALLING INTO PARTIALLY MODIFIED CP AIR MASS ACROSS MS/AL WILL STRENGTHEN BAROCLINIC ZONE...LIKELY SUPPRESSING MORE TROPICAL BOUNDARY LAYER TO AREAS FROM SRN LA SWD. AS THE LOW APPROACHES SHORE OR MOVES JUST INLAND...MORE ROBUST UPDRAFTS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OFFSHORE...MOVE NWD AND INTERACT WITH THE NW-SE ORIENTED WARM FRONT. LOW LCLS COUPLED WITH MODEST LOW LEVEL TURNING VCNTY THE FRONT COULD BE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLD TORNADOES. BUT...THE CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY IN THE OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE REFLECTED BY LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES ATTM. ..RACY.. 10/08/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Oct 9 07:14:50 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 09 Oct 2004 02:14:50 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200410090716.i997G0t06450@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 090712 SWODY2 SPC AC 090712 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0212 AM CDT SAT OCT 09 2004 VALID 101200Z - 111200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW GLS 40 SSW LFK 25 N ACT 60 NE BGS 25 SE AMA 35 WNW GAG 20 S ICT 10 ENE SGF 20 SE POF 45 SE MKL 10 WNW LGC 45 WNW SAV 30 SE CHS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE DUG 45 WNW SAD 45 S FLG 35 ESE IGM 50 WNW EED 55 S TPH 60 ESE U31 15 ESE SLC 15 ESE CAG 10 W COS 50 WSW TCC 55 SE ELP. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...CENTRAL GULF COAST AND LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY... T.S. MATTHEW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE A SLOW NEWD MOTION AND UNDERGO LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY BEFORE TURNING MORE NWD LATER SUNDAY INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION /REF LATEST GUIDANCE FROM NHC FOR FURTHER INFORMATION/. APPEARS ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY AND THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AS THIS SYSTEM NEARS THE COAST AND MOVES INLAND. MODERATE TO STRONG SHEAR IN THE LOWEST FEW KILOMETERS WILL THEREFORE SUPPORT AT LEAST A LOW PROBABILITY THREAT OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO. ...GREAT BASIN... STRONG ENERGY WILL CONTINUE DIGGING SEWD TOWARDS THE SWRN STATES SUNDAY...AND EVOLVE INTO AN UPPER LOW OVER SRN NV BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. APPEARS MODEST HEATING WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AND SUPPORT STEEP LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE SRN GREAT BASIN AND THE 4-CORNERS...AS MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES OF -16C TO -18C OVERSPREAD THE REGION. MID LEVEL MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION FROM PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE 4-CORNERS REGION/SRN ROCKIES...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING STRONGER CELLS WILL BE CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ..EVANS.. 10/09/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Oct 9 17:24:05 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 09 Oct 2004 12:24:05 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200410091725.i99HPDt14617@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 091722 SWODY2 SPC AC 091721 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1221 PM CDT SAT OCT 09 2004 VALID 101200Z - 111200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE LCH 20 WSW POE 15 SW GGG 15 WNW FTW 70 N ABI 30 E PVW 30 SSE AMA 55 SSE EHA 30 NNE LBL 55 NNW P28 35 NNW SGF 25 SE POF HSV 45 ENE MCN 15 S CHS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S DUG 45 WNW SAD 45 S FLG 30 ESE IGM 45 NW EED 45 SSW DRA 55 S TPH 60 ESE U31 15 ESE SLC 15 ESE CAG 10 WSW COS 20 SSE RTN 20 WNW ROW 60 SE ELP. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...ERN LA/MS/SW AL... TROPICAL DEPRESSION MATTHEW IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO AND WILL CONTINUE NWD REACHING THE COAST OF LA BY DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY. CONVECTIVE BANDS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE PRESENT IN THE COASTAL AREAS OF SE LA AND SRN MS EARLY IN THE PERIOD. THE RAINBANDS OF MATTHEW SHOULD GRADUALLY SPREAD NWD AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND SHOULD BE WELL INLAND BY MIDDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM SHOW LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES MOST FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES SUNDAY ACROSS ERN MS AND SWRN AL. THE 18Z FORECAST SOUNDING FOR MERIDIAN MS SHOWS STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WITH OVER 30 KT OF 0-1 KM SHEAR. AS CONVECTIVE BANDS SPREAD NWD...SOME CELLS SHOULD ROTATE AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT MAY MATERIALIZE. HOWEVER...THE THREAT SHOULD BE MARGINAL CONSIDERING THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CONVECTION IN THE COASTAL AREAS. ANY TORNADO THREAT SHOULD MOVE NWD ACROSS CNTRL MS AND WRN AL DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IF INSTABILITY ENDS UP BEING HIGHER THAN FORECAST BY THE MODELS AHEAD OF THE CONVECTIVE BANDS...AN UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK WOULD BECOME NECESSARY IN LATER OUTLOOKS. ....SRN UT/NRN AR... A HIGH-AMPLITUDE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WRN STATES WILL PROVIDE STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ON DAY 2. STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE MTN AREAS AND ALONG A COLD FRONT MOVING SWD THROUGH THE REGION ACROSS SRN NV...SRN UT AND NWRN AR. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE MARGINAL FOR SUPERCELLS. HOWEVER...VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS COMBINED WITH THE STRONG ASCENT AND 500 MB TEMPS OF -12 TO -16 C SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL HAIL THREAT MAINLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. ..BROYLES.. 10/09/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Oct 10 07:23:44 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 10 Oct 2004 02:23:44 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200410100724.i9A7Ont00615@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 100722 SWODY2 SPC AC 100721 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0221 AM CDT SUN OCT 10 2004 VALID 111200Z - 121200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S DMN 40 WSW SVC 60 E PHX 25 NNE BLH 60 SSW DRA 60 NNW P38 10 WNW PUC 10 WNW GUC 30 W TAD 25 S TCC 40 WNW HOB 60 S MRF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE HUM 25 SSW MCB 30 NNW HEZ 35 NNE SHV 40 WSW PGO 15 W TUL 10 NNE CNU 35 NNE SZL 25 N SLO 30 NW TYS 15 NE AHN 30 ENE CHS ...CONT... 35 SSE VRB 55 SSE FMY. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... SLOW MOVING UPPER LOWS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE SWRN U.S...THE NORTHEAST AND THE CENTRAL STATES MONDAY...AS STRONGER WLYS ARE DISPLACED NWD ACROSS CANADA. THIS WILL MAINTAIN SRN STREAM OVER THE SWRN DESERTS/SRN HIGH PLAINS AND THE GULF COAST REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SPARSE OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS...EXCEPT AHEAD OF SLOW MOVING CENTRAL U.S. SYSTEM WITH AXIS OF ABUNDANT MOISTURE EXTENDING FROM THE LOWER MS RIVER/TN RIVER VALLEYS EWD INTO THE SOUTHEAST. ...FAR SWRN TX INTO THE SWRN STATES... SHEAR PROFILES WILL STRENGTHEN CONSIDERABLY OVER SWRN TX AND NM DURING THE AFTERNOON MONDAY...AS SELY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND WSWLY MID/UPPER LEVEL WINDS STRENGTHEN. IN ADDITION...AXIS OF RELATIVELY COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL SHIFT EWD INTO WRN NM AND SUPPORT RATHER STEEP LAPSE RATES AS THE BOUNDARY HEATS DURING THE DAY. THOUGH LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY DRY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT WEAK INSTABILITY BY THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON. GIVEN STRENGTH OF SHEAR AND STEEP LAPSE RATES...ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH ATTENDANT LOW PROBABILITY SEVERE THREAT INTO THE EVENING. ...LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES... MODELS IN AGREEMENT IN MAINTAINING WEAK LAPSE RATES AND DEEP MOIST THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ACROSS THIS REGION MONDAY...AS WSWLY FLOW ALOFT REMAINS MODEST /I.E. 20-30 KT/. THOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES WILL LIKELY BE MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED CLUSTERS OF STORMS...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST OVERALL WEAK INSTABILITY AND SMALL LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY LIMIT SEVERE THREAT. ..EVANS.. 10/10/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Oct 10 17:19:38 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 10 Oct 2004 12:19:38 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200410101720.i9AHKgt21054@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 101717 SWODY2 SPC AC 101716 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1216 PM CDT SUN OCT 10 2004 VALID 111200Z - 121200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW DMN 10 W SAD 25 NNE PHX 10 ESE EED 35 S LAS 45 ENE DRA 35 WNW U24 45 SSE SLC 35 S VEL 25 NNE GUC RTN 15 W CVS 25 WNW INK 30 NW MRF 50 W MRF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE VRB 55 SSE FMY ...CONT... 30 ESE 7R4 40 SW MLU 25 NNW TXK 30 NNW MLC 25 WSW BVO 15 NW CNU 15 NW SZL 45 NW STL 10 W OWB 10 NE CSV 30 SSE GSP 25 ENE CHS. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SWRN STATES... A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE WRN STATES AND CUTOFF TONIGHT ACROSS AZ. THIS FEATURE WILL SPREAD STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ACROSS NERN AZ AND NM ON DAY 2 PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. SFC HEATING WILL AID CONVECTION AS IT DEVELOPS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND MOVE EWD INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON. SFC DEWPOINTS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 30S AND 40S F ACROSS THE REGION AND THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGH-BASED STORMS. THE RELATIVELY DRY AIR WILL MINIMIZE THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL LIKELY KEEP ANY SEVERE THREAT MARGINAL. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR 21Z MONDAY IN WRN NM SHOW PRONOUNCED INVERTED-V PROFILES. THIS COMBINED WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WOULD FAVOR A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS NEAR PEAK HEATING. ...SERN US... THE REMNANTS OF MATTHEW WILL MOVE SLOWLY NWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY MONDAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS SFC HEATING INCREASES INSTABILITY BY MIDDAY MONDAY. HOWEVER...MARGINAL LAPSE RATES AND RELATIVELY WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THE REGION. ..BROYLES.. 10/10/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Oct 11 07:24:24 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 11 Oct 2004 02:24:24 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200410110725.i9B7PQt10880@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 110723 SWODY2 SPC AC 110722 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0222 AM CDT MON OCT 11 2004 VALID 121200Z - 131200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SE DUG 40 WNW SAD 55 SW PRC 60 ESE DAG LGB ...CONT... 25 NNW SMX 55 WNW DRA 10 ENE MLF GJT 40 SSW PUB 40 WNW TCC 30 S ROW 70 SSW GDP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W PFN 25 S SEM 55 SW MEM 20 WSW POF 15 SSW EVV 35 SSE LOZ 30 E CAE 15 SSE CRE. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE TUESDAY AS STRONG NRN STREAM SYSTEM AMPLIFIES ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA AND THE NRN PLAINS. THIS WILL FINALLY SHIFT PERSISTENT UPPER LOW EWD AWAY FROM THE PLAINS STATES AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST...WITH SWRN U.S. LOW CENTER RETROGRADING WWD TO OFF THE CA COAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. ...SOUTHEAST... WLY FLOW ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE SOUTHEAST AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL JET OVERSPREAD THE LOWER/MID MS RIVER VALLEY. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE LARGE INVERSION LAYER BETWEEN ROUGHLY 800 AND 650 MB ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL GREATLY LIMIT BOTH AVAILABLE INSTABILITY AND OVERALL CONVECTIVE THREAT...DESPITE PRESENCE OF RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS. THOUGH INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL LIKELY SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...OVERALL SEVERE THREAT APPEARS RATHER LIMITED ATTM. ...SRN ROCKIES INTO SRN CA... APPEARS POCKET OF RELATIVELY COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THIS REGION AS UPPER LOW SHIFTS STEADILY WWD. GIVEN AFTERNOON HEATING...LAPSE RATES AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE APPEAR SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. ..EVANS.. 10/11/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Oct 11 17:29:14 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 11 Oct 2004 12:29:14 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200410111730.i9BHUEt22704@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 111728 SWODY2 SPC AC 111727 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1227 PM CDT MON OCT 11 2004 VALID 121200Z - 131200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE CEW SEM CBM 50 SW MEM ARG POF CGI OWB LOZ 40 SSE LOZ TYS 30 E CHA 60 NW AHN 10 WNW GSP CRE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE DUG 40 NNE TUS PHX PRC GCN 65 E GCN GUP GNT SAF LVS 50 WSW CVS INK 60 SSE MAF HDO ALI 50 N MFE 55 S LRD. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... DISTINCTIVELY SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO CHARACTERIZE MID-UPPER LEVELS ACROSS CONUS DAY-2. CYCLONE NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER OK IS FCST TO BECOME INCREASINGLY VERTICALLY STACKED AS IT DRIFTS EWD ACROSS OZARKS THROUGH MOST OF PERIOD. THIS LOW SHOULD BEGIN TO OPEN AND ACCELERATE TOWARD LOWER OH VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO AMPLIFYING NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SEWD ACROSS MN/DAKOTAS. ASSOCIATED WEAK SFC FRONT/TROUGH -- NOW ANALYZED FROM SRN AR LOW SEWD OVER MS COAST -- IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT EWD ACROSS WRN/MID TN...NRN MS...AL AND WRN GA THROUGH PERIOD. FARTHER W...BINARY MID-UPPER CYCLONE EVIDENT OVER SWRN CONUS -- WITH CENTERS OVER AZ AND NRN SIERRAS. AZ CENTER SHOULD WEAKEN INTO LOW-AMPLITUDE PERTURBATION AND EJECT ENEWD INTO CYCLONIC FLOW STREAM AROUND OK/OZARKS LOW. MEANWHILE WRN PORTION SHOULD REMAIN DISCRETE CYCLONE AND RETROGRADE SWWD OFFSHORE SRN CA. ...SERN CONUS... SOME LARGE SCALE DESTABILIZATION EXPECTED OVER SRN APPALACHIANS/PIEDMONT REGION AND TN VALLEY...ASSOCIATED WITH COMBINATION OF DIFFERENTIAL MIDLEVEL CVA AND AGEOSTROPHIC FORCING BENEATH LEFT EXIT REGION OF CYCLONICALLY CURVED MID-UPPER JET MAX. IN LOW LEVELS...CONTINUED FETCH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH WARM SECTOR WILL SUPPORT SPORADIC CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS THROUGHOUT PERIOD. ..FROM NEAR DEEP-LAYER LOW SEWD TOWARD FL. SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY LIMITED BY WEAKNESS OF DEEP-LAYER LAPSE RATES -- BARELY ABOVE MOIST ADIABATIC IN MOST AREAS EXCEPT FOR NEAR-SFC LAYERS AMIDST CLOUD BREAKS. MLCAPES 500-1000 J/KG WILL BE POSSIBLE LOCALLY. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL FLOW IS FCST TO REMAIN RATHER WEAK -- GENERALLY AOB 15 KT FROM SFC-850 MB -- 40-50 KT DEEP-LAYER FLOW IS EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL/SRN PORTIONS GA/AL BENEATH MIDLEVEL JET. ALONG AND E OF SFC TROUGH -- WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BE SOMEWHAT BACKED -- THIS LEADS TO 40-50 KT 0-6 KM AGL SHEARS AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME STORMS TO ROTATE. THEREFORE LOW-END SEVERE PROBABILITIES ARE WARRANTED...BUT THREAT FOR ORGANIZED EVENT STILL APPEARS TOO CONDITIONAL/MARGINAL FOR CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK ATTM. ..EDWARDS.. 10/11/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Oct 12 06:49:12 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 12 Oct 2004 01:49:12 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200410120650.i9C6oBt12581@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 120648 SWODY2 SPC AC 120647 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0147 AM CDT TUE OCT 12 2004 VALID 131200Z - 141200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S SAV 30 NW AGS 10 ESE AND 35 WSW GSO 25 ESE ORF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW SSI 45 WSW AGS 15 S CHA 25 NW BWG 30 SSW LAF 35 WNW FWA 15 SSE DTW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE ELP 55 SW INK 45 NE P07 45 E COT PSX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNE ROC 20 NW AVP 10 NW JFK. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE CAROLINAS INTO TIDEWATER REGION... ...SYNOPSIS... LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED SOUTH OF HUDSON BAY UPPER LOW WEDNESDAY...WITH STRONG SYSTEM DIGGING SSEWD INTO THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS. AS THIS OCCURS...UPPER LOW NOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL EJECT EAST AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD AS A NEGATIVELY-TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC DURING THE PERIOD. ...CAROLINAS INTO THE SRN MID ATLANTIC... THOUGH PRIMARY SURFACE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS NEWD FROM THE OH RIVER VALLEY INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...INCREASING SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ALLOW WARM FRONT/COASTAL BOUNDARY TO PUSH INLAND OVER THE CAROLINAS DURING THE AFTERNOON. SECONDARY AREA OF CYCLOGENESIS SHOULD ACCOMPANY EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH...LIKELY OCCURRING ALONG TRIPLE POINT OF E-W ORIENTED WARM FRONT AND N-S ORIENTED SURFACE TROUGH EXPECTED TO PUSH ENEWD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. ETA IS MOST PRONOUNCED WITH THIS SECONDARY LOW CENTER...DEVELOPING A SURFACE LOW OVER UPSTATE SC BY 21Z WHICH IS LIFTED NEWD INTO THE SRN MID ATLANTIC COAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. AS WARM FRONT/COASTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOPS NWD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS DURING THE DAY...INFLUX OF UPPER 60F/LOWER 70F SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL SPREAD WELL INLAND IN ITS WAKE. THOUGH CONVECTION/ PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY PRECEED EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND OVERSPREAD THIS REGION EARLY IN THE DAY...SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS NOSE OF STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL JET SHIFTS INTO THE SOUTHEAST. PRESENCE OF CONVECTION EARLY IN THE DAY COMPLICATES SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL GIVEN UNCERTAINTY ABOUT AVAILABLE INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CONDITIONS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS SHOULD EVEN MARGINAL INSTABILITY DEVELOP...WITH STRONG LOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND SHALLOW LCL HEIGHTS. ALSO...ETA IS NOW FORECASTING SBCAPES FROM 1000-2000 J/KG WITHIN WARM SECTOR DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON. SUPERCELLS MAY EITHER DEVELOP WITHIN BROADER AREA OF CONVECTION...OR IN ITS WAKE WHERE CONVERGENCE AND BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE PRONOUNCED NEAR TRIPLE POINT AND INVOF WARM FRONT. SHOULD A SECONDARY LOW CENTER OCCUR...PRESSURE FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN A THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES/WIND DAMAGE AFTER DARK AS IT LIFTS NNEWD INTO THE SRN CHESAPEAKE. ..EVANS.. 10/12/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Oct 12 17:35:27 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 12 Oct 2004 12:35:27 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200410121736.i9CHaOt15725@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 121734 SWODY2 SPC AC 121733 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1233 PM CDT TUE OCT 12 2004 VALID 131200Z - 141200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E SAV 35 E AGS 40 N CAE 30 NNW SOP RWI HSE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ELP GDP BWD TPL CLL GLS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE SAV AGS AHN 55 WNW CHA OWB DAY CLE FKL DUJ PSB ACY. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS ERN CAROLINAS... ...SYNOPSIS... DAY-2 WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY RAPIDLY EVOLVING UPPER AIR PATTERN AS MEAN TROUGH BEGINS TAKING SHAPE OVER ERN NORTH AMERICA...AND LOW NOW MOVING OFFSHORE SRN CA RETROGRADES AND BECOMES CUT OFF. SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER CANADIAN PLAINS -- IS FCST TO DIG SEWD AND STRENGTHEN CONSIDERABLY...EVOLVING INTO PROGRESSIVE AND NEARLY CLOSED LOW OVER ERN OK BY END OF PERIOD. AS THIS OCCURS...ASSOCIATED BELT OF SHARPLY CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT SHOULD CONTAIN 70-80 KT 500 MB SPEED MAX AND 250 MB JET LIKELY EXCEEDING 120 KT. MEANWHILE...MID/UPPER LOW PRESENTLY OVER OZARKS REGION IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO OPEN SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND MOVE FROM LOWER OH VALLEY TO VICINITY WV/VA/TIDEWATER AREA BY 14/12Z. AT SFC...FRONTAL-WAVE LOW SHOULD DEVELOP OVER SC AHEAD OF ERN CONUS MIDLEVEL TROUGH...ALONG PIEDMONT BAROCLINIC ZONE...AND MOVE NEWD TOWARD NERN NC/SERN VA. PROGRESSIVE AND STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT SHOULD SURGE SEWD ACROSS SRN PLAINS AND INTO EXTREME NWRN GULF BY END OF PERIOD. ...CAROLINAS/SERN VA REGION... SCATTERED TSTMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF COASTAL PLAIN AND TIDEWATER REGION FROM SERN VA TO SC...AND INLAND ONTO PORTIONS CAROLINAS PIEDMONT. STRONGEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND JUXTAPOSITION OF FAVORABLE INSTABILITY/SHEAR SHOULD BE BETWEEN 13/18Z AND 14/03Z OVER CATEGORICAL SLGT RISK AREA -- BEHIND INITIAL ROUND OF CONVECTION PROGGED BY ETA/SPECTRAL. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS REGION WITH APCH OF OH VALLEY TROUGH ALOFT...AND ISALLOBARIC SFC RESPONSE TO PIEDMONT FRONTAL-WAVE CYCLOGENESIS. RESULTING BACKED FLOW AHEAD OF SFC LOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO 0-1 KM SRH 100-200 J/KG...AND 0-6 KM AGL SHEARS 40-50 KT. DIURNAL HEATING BEHIND EARLY CLOUDS/PRECIP SHOULD OVERCOME MODEST LAPSE RATES ALOFT TO YIELD 1000-1500 J/KG AFTERNOON MLCAPE IN NARROW CORRIDOR AHEAD OF SFC CONVERGENCE AXIS. BOTH SUPERCELLULAR AND BOW ECHO MODES ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY...DAMAGING GUSTS EXPECTED ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR A FEW TORNADOES. SHORTER OPPORTUNITY FOR DESTABILIZATION MAKES OUTLOOK MORE CONDITIONAL WITH NEWD EXTENT INTO SERN VA. ...S TX... ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS POSSIBLE DIURNALLY ALONG/AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT AS COOLING ALOFT...LOW LEVEL THETAE ADVECTION...AND SFC DIABATIC HEATING COMBINE TO WEAKEN CAP AND RAISE MLCAPES TO 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE. AIR MASS WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY INCREASING LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ABOVE BOUNDARY LAYER...INCREASING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...BUT WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW. THIS RESULTS IN RELATIVELY SMALL FCST HODOGRAPHS -- EXCEPT FOR EXTREMELY DEVIANT STORM MOTIONS -- AND 40-50 KT SHEAR THROUGH 0-6 KM AGL LAYER. MAIN CONCERN IS EXTENT OF AIR MASS RECOVERY GIVEN UPPER 50S TO MID 60S F SFC DEW POINTS AND NLY FLOW COMPONENTS NOW EVIDENT OVER AREA...HOWEVER TRAJECTORY LENGTHS FOR RICHER MOISTURE OVER NW GULF WILL BE RATHER SHORT. TSTMS ALSO SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON BOTH SIDES OF SFC COLD FRONT...ACROSS S TX...AS INTENSIFYING UPPER TROUGH APCHS. HAIL MAY OCCUR FROM STRONGER CELLS BOTH AHEAD OF AND BEHIND FRONT...AND ISOLATED STRONG-SEVERE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS NOT BEEN STABILIZED TOO MUCH BY CAA. SOME OF THIS AREA MAY REQUIRE CATEGORICAL SEVERE OUTLOOK. ..EDWARDS.. 10/12/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Oct 13 07:19:28 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 13 Oct 2004 02:19:28 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200410130720.i9D7KMt03217@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 130717 SWODY2 SPC AC 130716 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0216 AM CDT WED OCT 13 2004 VALID 141200Z - 151200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE DAB 20 SSE SRQ ...CONT... 15 W PNS 20 N CEW 30 SSE SAV. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE 7R4 25 NW MCB 45 E ELD 40 WSW MEM 20 SSE BNA 45 NE TYS 25 SW ILM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E INL 40 SSW HIB 30 NNW STC 35 SSE FAR 55 N DVL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 N ORF 20 NNW BWI 30 SW AVP 35 SW PSF BOS. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PART OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SYNOPSIS... PRIMARY IMPETUS FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN TIED TO STRONG UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FEATURES EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE SOUTHEAST. ETA HAS BEEN TRENDING TOWARDS A SLOWER/STRONGER SYSTEM EVOLVING OVER THE SRN PLAINS/LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY...SIMILAR TO THE GFS WHICH IS THE PREFERRED MODEL WITH THIS OUTLOOK. AS STRONG HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT OVERSPREAD THE CENTRAL GULF COAST DURING THE DAY...EXPECT SOME SORT OF SURFACE LOW WILL EVOLVE ALONG INTERSECTION OF SURFACE COLD FRONT AND E-W ORIENTED COASTAL BOUNDARY/WARM FRONT...AS DEPICTED BY THE GFS. THIS TRIPLE POINT/LOW CENTER WILL LIKELY TRACK ENEWD ACROSS NRN FL AND SRN GA OVERNIGHT AS A RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER SPREADS INLAND IN WAKE OF WARM FRONT LIFTING NWD ACROSS THIS AREA. ELSEWHERE...WIDESPREAD CONVECTION INCLUDING EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO SPREAD NNEWD ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC AND SRN NEW ENGLAND COASTS EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WHILE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVER ERN ND/NRN MN ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG SYSTEM DIGGING SEWD TOWARDS THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SEVERE THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL WITH THESE SYSTEMS. ...SOUTHEAST... GFS DEPICTS A 90+ KT MID LEVEL JET OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY BY LATE IN THE DAY...WHICH STRENGTHENS TO NEAR 100 KT OVER SRN GA/NRN FL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THUS...LOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BECOME QUITE STRONG BY THE LATE AFTERNOON OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...WHERE SURFACE LOW MAY FORM ALONG OR JUST OFF SHORE. THIS ENHANCED SHEAR WILL THEN OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTHEAST AFTER DARK...AS POSSIBLE SQUALL LINE EVOLVES OVER THE FL PANHANDLE/NERN GULF WHICH WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS SRN GA/NRN FL OVERNIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER MAY COOL SUFFICIENTLY TO PRECLUDE SURFACE BASED STORMS WITH THIS SQUALL LINE. HOWEVER...PRESENCE OF EXTREME SHEAR AND STRONG LARGE SCALE ASCENT OVERSPREADING A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS AROUND 70F...YIELD SOME CONCERN THAT ANY STORMS ROOTING INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY PRODUCE WIND DAMAGE AND/OR TORNADOES. ..EVANS.. 10/13/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Oct 13 17:40:04 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 13 Oct 2004 12:40:04 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200410131740.i9DHewt22104@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 131739 SWODY2 SPC AC 131738 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1238 PM CDT WED OCT 13 2004 VALID 141200Z - 151200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE GPT MOB TOI MCN 60 W SAV SSI ...CONT... DAB 45 S FMY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM RRT BJI RWF SPW OMA LNK GRI BUB PIR MBG 75 NNW DVL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NW LRD 45 NNW BPT 55 SE SHV TXK HOT JBR BNA LOZ HTS PKB MGW 40 ENE EKN CHO DCA ABE 30 SW BDL ACK. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS SRN AL...FL PANHANDLE...NRN FL AND SRN GA.... ...SYNOPSIS... PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE THROUGH PERIOD INTO HIGH-AMPLITUDE MEAN TROUGH OVER ERN CONUS...AND LONGWAVE RIDGE OFFSHORE PACIFIC COAST. MOST IMPORTANT SHORTWAVE FEATURE WILL BE TROUGH NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY FROM NWRN ONT TO SERN WY. EXPECT SIGNIFICANT AMPLIFICATION THROUGH REMAINDER DAY-1 AND INTO DAY-2 AS THIS FEATURE CONTINUES DIGGING SEWD ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS. BY 14/12Z...ETA/AVN/NGM AND SHORT-RANGE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH POSITION OF RESULTANT CLOSED LOW OVER NERN OK/SERN KS VICINITY. 15/12Z THIS FEATURE SHOULD PIVOT EWD AND DEAMPLIFY INTO OPEN-WAVE TROUGH OVER SRN APPALACHIANS...AS IT BEGINS TO EJECT FROM POSITION OF LARGE SCALE TROUGH. ASSOCIATED INTENSE SFC COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EWD/SEWD FROM MS VALLEY AND NWRN GULF...CROSSING MUCH OF FL AND GA BY END OF PERIOD. AS UPPER TROUGH APCHS FRONTAL ZONE LATE IN PERIOD...EXPECT CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THIS FRONT OVER CAROLINAS PIEDMONT OR COASTAL PLAIN REGION. MEANWHILE...UPPER LOW -- NOW EVOLVING INTO OPEN-WAVE TROUGH OVER LOWER OH VALLEY -- SHOULD CONTINUE GRADUAL DEAMPLIFICATION AS IT EJECTS NEWD ACROSS MID ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND STATES DAY-2. ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL CYCLONE AND ELEVATED WARM/MOIST ADVECTION REGIME MAY SUPPORT ELEVATED TSTM POTENTIAL FIRST HALF OF PERIOD. ...SERN CONUS... NEAR-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE SHOULD DEVELOP AND MOVE RAPIDLY EWD THURSDAY EVENING AND NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL/ERN GULF COASTAL PLAIN...WITH LEWP-BOW FORMATIONS POSSIBLE. MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WIND...THOUGH A FEW PREFRONTAL SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES ALSO ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEARS. RISK FOR DAMAGING GUSTS SHOULD INCREASE WITH SWD PROXIMITY TO COAST OVER AL AND FL PANHANDLE...INCLUDING AREAS HIT BY HURRICANE IVAN LAST MONTH. ATTM MAIN CONCERNS ARE WITH DEGREE OF BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS MODIFICATION/DESTABILIZATION IN PREFRONTAL RETURN FLOW...AND HOW FAR INLAND ANY FAVORABLE BUOYANCY WILL PENETRATE. THIS MAKES OUTLOOK PROBABILITIES LOWER AND MODE CONDITIONAL WITH NWD EXTENT OVER SERN STATES. ONGOING CONVECTION MOVING FROM S TX ACROSS NWRN GULF MAY IMPEDE SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE RETURN W OF MS RIVER. HOWEVER...EXPECT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TO DEVELOP AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER MS/AL AND PERHAPS EXTREME SERN LA...STRENGTHENING TO SEVERE LEVELS AS INFLOW-LAYER INSTABILITY STRENGTHENS. EXPECT THETAE TO INCREASE WITHIN GULF AIR MASS THROUGHOUT DAY FROM COMBINATION OF ADVECTION AND VERTICAL MARINE FLUXES...RESULTING IN SFC DEW POINTS IN MID 60S TO LOW 70S OVER NRN GULF AND 60S OVER ADJACENT LAND AREAS. NARROW CORRIDOR OF 70S DEW POINTS MAY PRECEDE SQUALL LINE OVER FL PANHANDLE LATE IN PERIOD. KINEMATIC PROFILES WILL BE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE. EXPECT WEAK LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL TURNING BUT STILL 100-200 J/KG 0-1 KM SRH...AND 50-60 KT 0-6 KM SHEAR..INVOF SFC COLD FRONT. TSTM LINE MAY WEAKEN AFTER ABOUT 15/06Z AS IT MOVES EWD INTO PROGRESSIVELY MORE STABLE AIR MASS...EFFECTIVELY OUT RUNNING FAVORABLE WARM SECTOR DESTABILIZATION. GIVEN STRENGTH OF KINEMATIC FIELDS...HOWEVER...CONDITIONAL SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY EXTEND OVER REMAINDER GA AND CAROLINAS. INTENSE/ELEVATED LOW LEVEL WAA AND LARGE SCALE MID-UPPER LEVEL ASCENT WILL SUPPORT GEN TSTM POTENTIAL ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN APPALACHIANS AS WELL. ..EDWARDS.. 10/13/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Oct 14 07:10:10 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 14 Oct 2004 02:10:10 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200410140711.i9E7B1t18517@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 140706 SWODY2 SPC AC 140705 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0205 AM CDT THU OCT 14 2004 VALID 151200Z - 161200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW CTY 30 WSW SSI 50 W CHS 30 NE CAE 50 E TRI 35 SE LEX 40 NNE SDF 10 SSW FWA 70 SSE OSC ...CONT... MSS 10 NE MPV 35 E MWN BHB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N CTB 40 ESE LWT 25 ESE SHR 20 NNW CPR 25 NW LND 20 ESE MQM 50 S S06 30 N 63S. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... MODELS IN AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING UPPER LOW OVER THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...WITH A SERIES OF STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND THIS MEAN LOW POSITION. LEADING SYSTEM WILL LIFT MORE NWD INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES WHILE ADDITIONAL STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL ADVANCE ENEWD AS A NEGATIVELY-TILTED TROUGH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. AT THE SURFACE...STRONG COLD FRONT /EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO ERN SC AND NRN FL FRIDAY MORNING/ WILL CONTINUE MOVING EWD OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...AND SWD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF FL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ...MID ATLANTIC COAST... PRESENCE OF VERY STRONG MID AND UPPER LEVEL WIND FIELDS AND ONSHORE FLOW WARRANT AT LEAST CONDITIONAL...LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES OVER THIS REGION FRIDAY. INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN LIMITED AS PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE MAY BE ONGOING OVER THIS REGION EARLY IN THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...ETA AND GFS FORECAST SSELY SURFACE WINDS OVER ERN NC/SERN VA THROUGH 18Z...WITH ONSHORE SURFACE WINDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC INTO THE AFTERNOON. WEAK LAPSE RATES AND MINIMAL INSTABILITY WILL CERTAINLY INHIBIT STRONG UPDRAFTS...THOUGH VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND A RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH LARGE RH/S SUGGEST SOME THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS OR AN ISOLATED TORNADO DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD. ...CENTRAL/SRN FL... SURFACE FRONT WILL CONTINUE PUSHING SWD ACROSS CENTRAL AND INTO SRN FL FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WHERE MODEST HEATING INTO THE 80S AND SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER...REGION WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF MID/UPPER LEVEL JET WITH WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES. IN ADDITION...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL BECOME MORE DIFFUSE AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS IN THE WARM SECTOR VEER TO A MORE WSWLY DIRECTION. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT WEAKENING OF LINEAR CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL FL DURING THE MORNING...THOUGH ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP DURING THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON AS HEATING COMMENCES. OVERALL SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LOW ATTM. ..EVANS.. 10/14/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Oct 14 16:41:09 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 14 Oct 2004 11:41:09 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200410141641.i9EGfxt25019@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 141640 SWODY2 SPC AC 141639 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1139 AM CDT THU OCT 14 2004 VALID 151200Z - 161200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW CTY 25 SW SSI 50 W CHS 35 SSW SOP 30 W DAN 35 SE LEX 40 NNE SDF 10 SSW FWA 70 SSE OSC ...CONT... MSS 10 NE MPV 35 E MWN BHB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N CTB 40 ESE LWT 25 ESE SHR 20 NNW CPR 25 NW LND 20 ESE MQM 50 S S06 30 N 63S. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER LOW CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE MID MS VLY NOW WILL CONTINUE TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. UPSTREAM UPPER IMPULSE OVER THE NRN PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO DIG SEWD IN WAKE OF THIS LOW...CARVING OUT A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE ERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY BY THE END OF THE WEEK. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MS VLY WAVE WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EWD AND BE LOCATED FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES TO CNTRL FL BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR TSTMS...PRIMARILY EARLY FRIDAY. ...CNTRL/SRN FL... BANDS OF TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING ACROSS CNTRL/SRN FL FRIDAY MORNING...BOTH ALONG THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING SWD THROUGH THE STATE AND ALONG AN OLDER BAROCLINIC ZONE SITUATED ACROSS FAR S FL. STRONGEST MIDLEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL TRANSLATE WELL NORTH OF THE REGION AND MASS CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONTS WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. AS A RESULT...TSTMS SHOULD WEAKEN WITH TIME FRIDAY MORNING. BUT...GIVEN MORNING H5 FLOW OF 40 KTS ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE FRONTS COUPLED WITH MLCAPES TO 1500 J/KG...ISOLD TSTMS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE THE GREATEST BEFORE 18Z...WITH RAPIDLY DECREASING PROBABILITIES THEREAFTER. ...MID-ATLANTIC REGION... PRIMARY BAND OF CONVECTION/TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE VERY NEAR THE ATLANTIC COAST FROM ERN VA INTO THE ERN CAROLINAS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. LOW-LEVEL DEW POINTS HAVE LOWERED CONSIDERABLY IN WAKE OF THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND INSTABILITY WILL BE LOW COINCIDENT WITH THE FRONT. HOWEVER...GIVEN STRONG WIND FIELDS /H85 AT 45 KTS AND H5 AT 85 KTS/...LOW PROBABILITIES OF ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST. OTHERWISE...DRY SLOT WRAPPING AROUND THE GREAT LAKES UPPER LOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE MID-ATLANTIC FRIDAY AFTERNOON. 12Z ETA FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE TOO UNSTABLE OWING TO SHALLOW CONVECTIVE SCHEME. INSTABILITY SHOULD BE RATHER LOW AS SUGGESTED BY 09Z SREF. HOWEVER...GIVEN 90+ METER MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS...STRONG LOW-MIDLEVEL WIND FIELDS AND AT LEAST MID 50S SURFACE DEW POINTS BENEATH MINUS 20C H5 TEMPERATURES...THE PROBABILITY FOR ISOLD TSTMS DEVELOPING WITHIN THE DRY SLOT IS NON-ZERO. GIVEN A TSTM...ISOLD HAIL/GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS. ..RACY.. 10/14/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Oct 15 07:09:53 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 15 Oct 2004 02:09:53 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200410150710.i9F7Aet01135@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 150708 SWODY2 SPC AC 150707 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0207 AM CDT FRI OCT 15 2004 VALID 161200Z - 171200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSE HRO MKL 45 NE HSV ANB 0A8 JAN TXK PGO 55 SSE HRO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ENE HVR GCC CPR LND IDA 60 NNW BOI PUW 40 NE 63S. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNW PBG 10 NE MSV MRB PKB 10 SSW MFD 45 W CLE. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...AR/LA/TN/MS/AL... LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST STATES ON SATURDAY...WITH ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING INTO CA. FAST WESTERLY FLOW AND WEAK UPPER RIDGING WILL BE PRESENT OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS PATTERN WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS OVER TX AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY...TRANSPORTING GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND POSING A RISK OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...UPPER RIDGING...AND ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL PRECLUDE A RISK OF ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS IN THIS AREA ON SATURDAY. ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON DAY2 UNDER COLD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION...AND OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED IN THESE REGIONS. ..HART.. 10/15/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Oct 15 16:24:17 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 15 Oct 2004 11:24:17 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200410151625.i9FGP5t28434@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 151617 SWODY2 SPC AC 151616 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1116 AM CDT FRI OCT 15 2004 VALID 161200Z - 171200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ENE CTB 35 NNE LWT 15 N BIL 55 SW BIL 40 N WEY 30 W BTM 25 WNW S80 15 WSW LWS 35 WNW GEG 40 NW 63S. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE DOV 30 NW SBY 25 SW DCA 40 SW MRB 15 NW AOO 25 SSE BFD 15 SSE JHW 30 SSW ERI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE MKL 20 E HSV 15 S RMG LGC 20 SE 0A8 45 SW CBM 35 N GLH 60 ENE LIT 40 SE MKL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MSS 30 SE UCA 30 S PSF 15 NNE ORH 25 NW PWM 15 W EPM. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS/FORECAST... UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL DEAMPLIFY THIS WEEKEND. COLD UPPER LOW/TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES/ERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY WILL ROTATE NEWD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND AND OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST ON SATURDAY. IN ITS WAKE...MAINLY ZONAL FLOW WILL EXIST WITH RISING HEIGHTS OVER THE CNTRL/SRN STATES. MEANWHILE...CLOSED UPPER LOW A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES WEST OF SRN CA WILL OPEN AND EJECT EWD AS A WEAKENING TROUGH AS ANOTHER STRONG UPPER IMPULSE DIGS SWD FROM THE GULF OF AK SATURDAY. STRONG TRANSPORT OF CP AIR MASS SWD INTO THE CONTINENTAL U.S. AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO/SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC BASIN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS WILL PRECLUDE RISKS OF SEVERE WEATHER ON SATURDAY. CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME AND STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT CONVECTION/SPORADIC TSTMS AHEAD OF A POTENT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE FROM CNTRL PA NEWD INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. OTHER TSTMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE DOWNWIND SIDES OF LAKES ERIE/ONTARIO WHERE DELTA-T/S WILL BE LARGE AND EQUILIBRIUM TEMPERATURES AOB MINUS 20C. OTHER TSTMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. H5 HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE GULF OF AK IMPULSE AND MOISTENING PROFILES WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION FOR AT LEAST ISOLD TSTMS. OTHERWISE...WEAK RETURN FLOW MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ELEVATED TSTMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS NRN PARTS OF MS/AL...PRIMARILY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. ..RACY.. 10/15/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Oct 16 07:30:38 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 16 Oct 2004 02:30:38 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200410160731.i9G7VMt29163@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 160728 SWODY2 SPC AC 160727 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0227 AM CDT SAT OCT 16 2004 VALID 171200Z - 181200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ALS PGA DRA MER RBL ONP OLM 4OM FCA LWT 4BQ 10 NW CDR AKO ALS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DSM MMO HTS HKY AND HSV 55 SW JBR SGF FNB DSM. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...MID MS AND LOWER OH VALLEY... FAST WESTERLY FLOW REGIME WILL BE PRESENT OVER MUCH OF THE NATION ON SUNDAY...WITH SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS RACING ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. RATHER DEEP SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER KS WITH WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY BY 18/12Z. STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL TRANSPORT GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AS FAR NORTH AS MO/IL BY MONDAY MORNING. MID LEVEL CAPPING SHOULD SUPPRESS DEEP CONVECTION FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD OVER THE WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER...INCREASING LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM MO INTO IND/KY/TN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW RATHER STEEP LAPSE RATES AND FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES FOR THE THREAT OF ROTATING STORMS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. PORTIONS OF THIS AREA MAY REQUIRE UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS IF GREATER DESTABILIZATION APPEARS LIKELY. ..HART.. 10/16/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Oct 16 16:46:12 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 16 Oct 2004 11:46:12 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200410161646.i9GGkst16286@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 161628 SWODY2 SPC AC 161627 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1127 AM CDT SAT OCT 16 2004 VALID 171200Z - 181200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW HQM 10 NW 4OM 15 ESE FCA 35 WSW PHP 15 SSW BUB 50 NNE GCK 40 NE CAO 10 N SAF 25 SE PGA 25 WSW DRA 15 NW SFO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE UIN 20 NNE HUF 45 ENE LEX 15 W HSS 25 W RMG 40 SW MEM 55 N HOT 10 NW UMN 50 N SZL 25 NE UIN. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE SRN CA COAST IS EXPECTED TO BECOME DISLODGED AND EJECTED NEWD STARTING TONIGHT AS A STRONG IMPULSE DIGS SEWD TO THE PAC NW COAST. THE CA TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AND RAPIDLY TRANSLATE EWD TO THE CNTRL PLAINS BY SUNDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...THE PAC NW TROUGH WILL TURN EWD INTO THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN/GREAT BASIN REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...LEE LOW WILL INTENSIFY SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO MIDLEVEL HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING EWD AHEAD OF THE CA TROUGH. THIS LOW WILL MOVE EWD INTO KS SUNDAY NIGHT. STRONG SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS LOW...AND WILL BE THE IMPETUS FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE TSTMS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID MS/TN VLYS. ...MID MS/TN VLYS... MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE MID 60S WAS ALREADY STARTING TO RETURN TO THE WRN GULF COAST. INCREASING SLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING CA TROUGH WILL ADVECT THIS MOISTURE NWD INTO THE LOWER MS VLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THOUGH THE WARM SECTOR WILL REMAIN CAPPED DURING THE DAY...POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED TSTMS WILL EXIST SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID MS/TN VLYS WHERE STRONGEST WARM/MOIST ADVECTION REGIME IS EXPECTED. EFFECTIVE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS AND STRONGER TSTMS MAY GIVE ISOLD SEVERE HAIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. ..RACY.. 10/16/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Oct 17 07:19:09 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 17 Oct 2004 02:19:09 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200410170719.i9H7Jmt26106@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 170717 SWODY2 SPC AC 170716 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0216 AM CDT SUN OCT 17 2004 VALID 181200Z - 191200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM LAF LUK 45 S LEX 40 S BNA 45 N GLH HOT HRO SZL FNB OMA DSM MLI LAF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM GLS GGG FYV OJC BIE CDR GCC 55 W MLS GDV BIS RWF CGX MFD DUJ ABE 25 SW ACY. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE MID MS AND LOWER OH VALLEYS... FAST ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NATION ON MONDAY...WITH SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING WEST-TO-EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MS/OH VALLEYS. DEEP SURFACE LOW WILL BE OVER KS MONDAY MORNING...DEVELOPING EASTWARD ALONG WARM FRONT INTO MO/IL OVERNIGHT. A LARGE MOIST/UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID/LOWER MS VALLEY WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S. CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD LIMIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. HOWEVER...PRESENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST A SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER PARTS OF THE MID MS AND LOWER OH VALLEYS. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SURFACE DRYLINE WILL SURGE EASTWARD INTO MO/AR BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS BOUNDARY...ALONG WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG WARM FRONT OVER IL/IND WILL LIKELY SERVE AS PRIMARY FOCI FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG IN THESE REGIONS. LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR VALUES /6KM SHEAR OF 40-50 KNOTS AND 3KM SRH OF 250-400 M2/S2/ APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. PARTS OF AR/MO/IL MAY REQUIRE AN UPGRADE TO MODERATE RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS AS MODELS CONVERGE ON DETAILS OF FORECAST. ..HART.. 10/17/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Oct 18 06:39:05 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 18 Oct 2004 01:39:05 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200410180640.i9I6eot14366@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 180638 SWODY2 SPC AC 180638 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0138 AM CDT MON OCT 18 2004 VALID 191200Z - 201200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM HSS 45 NNW AHN ANB JAN MLU 35 SE TXK 30 NW LIT ARG PAH 40 SSW SDF LOZ HSS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 ENE 63S PUW 50 NNE BOI IDA 15 NNW OGD ELY LAS 35 SE LGB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE BPT GGG HRO BMI GRR 60 SE OSC ...CONT... ART ALB HYA. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE ARKLATEX REGION INTO THE TN VALLEY... ...LOWER MS AND TN VALLEYS... LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AND AMPLIFY ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST ON TUESDAY...WITH FAST ZONAL FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN UNITED STATES. WIDESPREAD WARM/MOIST LOW LEVEL AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE ON DAY2 FROM TX/OK EASTWARD TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. HOWEVER...RELATIVELY WEAK UPPER FORCING AND SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL CAP SHOULD LIMIT STRONG CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO PARTS OF THE LOWER MS/TN VALLEYS AND NORTHERN GULF COAST STATES. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT AXIS OF RATHER STRONG DAYTIME HEATING WILL OCCUR FROM MUCH OF AR INTO WESTERN TN/KY. THIS WILL HELP WEAKEN CAP AND DESTABILIZE AIRMASS...LEADING TO ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000 J/KG ARE EXPECTED ALONG THIS AXIS. LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE WESTERLY ON TUESDAY...RESULTING IN WEAKER LOW LEVEL SHEAR. HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. EASTWARD SPREAD OF SEVERE THREAT DURING THE EVENING MAY BE HAMPERED BY MORE STABLE AIRMASS ACROSS MIDDLE/EASTERN TN AND EASTERN KY. ..HART.. 10/18/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Oct 18 16:28:43 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 18 Oct 2004 11:28:43 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200410181630.i9IGUSu04365@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 181625 SWODY2 SPC AC 181623 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1123 AM CDT MON OCT 18 2004 VALID 191200Z - 201200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW ELD 25 WNW LIT 30 SSE CGI 35 ENE OWB 45 S SDF RMG 25 E ANB 15 S 0A8 35 NW LUL 35 SE MLU 30 WSW ELD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 ENE 63S PUW 50 NNE BOI IDA 15 NNW OGD ELY LAS 35 SE LGB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE BPT GGG HRO 20 NNW CMI 45 ESE DTW 15 SSW ISP. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE WRN STATES ON TUESDAY AS IMPULSES CONTINUE TO DROP SWD FROM THE GULF OF AK. DOWNSTREAM...MAINLY ZONAL FLOW WILL BE THE RULE WITH SRN STREAM JETLETS MIGRATING FROM THE SUB-TROPICAL PACIFIC EWD INTO THE SRN STATES. AT THE SURFACE...A FRONT WILL BE QUASI-STATIONARY FROM THE OH VLY WWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS. A WEAK LOW WILL MOVE FROM OK INTO AR DURING TUESDAY. ...MID-SOUTH... ABSENCE OF STRONG LARGE SCALE SUPPORT WITHIN ZONAL UPPER FLOW REGIME MAKES FOR A CHALLENGING CONVECTIVE FORECAST ON TUESDAY. SEVERAL TSTM CLUSTERS WILL EVOLVE FROM TODAY'S ACTIVITY AND WILL BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE DAY 2 PERIOD. THE STRONGEST TSTMS SHOULD EXIST ACROSS PARTS OF THE AR-LA-MS AREA...FEEDING OFF OF THE INSTABILITY AND STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ADVECTING EWD FROM TX. THESE TSTMS SHOULD MOVE EWD THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH DURING THE DAY...THOUGH EWD EXTENT OF THE SEVERE THREAT IS UNCERTAIN OWING TO DECREASING H85 WINDS AND STORMS MOVING FARTHER FROM THE INSTABILITY AXIS. MEANWHILE...AIR MASS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO RECOVER IN THE WAKE OF EARLY DAY CONVECTION...ALONG THE DRYLINE AND FRONT FROM SRN AR NEWD INTO THE LWR OH VLY. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL HAVE VEERED AND WEAKENED BY THEN AND HEATING WILL BE THE PRIMARY IMPETUS FOR INITIATING TSTMS. THOUGH THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE WEAK... VERTICAL SHEAR IN THE LOWEST 6 KM WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE LATE AFTERNOON STORMS MAY EVENTUALLY TRANSITION INTO A MCS AND MOVE ESEWD. STRONGER TSTMS SHOULD BACKBUILD WSWWD INTO SRN AR AND NRN MS WITHIN STRONGER INSTABILITY AND HAIL/WIND THREATS WILL CONTINUE. FARTHER EAST...AIR MASS MAY BE TOO STABLE TO SUPPORT SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS ERN KY/MID-ERN TN. ..RACY.. 10/18/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Oct 19 06:52:31 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 19 Oct 2004 01:52:31 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200410190654.i9J6sDu13950@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 190651 SWODY2 SPC AC 190650 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0150 AM CDT TUE OCT 19 2004 VALID 201200Z - 211200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM YKM EPH FCA 10 SE BIL CPR ASE 70 SE PGA GBN YUM NID FAT SAC 4LW BNO YKM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM BUF 10 SSE AOO LYH 25 ESE OAJ ...CONT... 10 SSE PNS GWO JBR STL SPI BEH MTC. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... STRONG UPPER TROUGH NOW APPROACHING THE PACIFIC COAST WILL DEEPEN OVER THE WESTERN STATES ON WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...UPPER RIDGING WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE MS/OH/TN VALLEY REGION...WHERE MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS FORECAST TO BE PRESENT. RATHER STRONG DAYTIME HEATING IS LIKELY ON DAY2 FROM OK EASTWARD INTO OH/KY...RESULTING IN AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OVER 1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...WEAK LOW LEVEL WINDS AND UPPER RIDING SHOULD PROVIDE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING MECHANISMS FOR DEEP CONVECTION. FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MODERATELY STEEP LAPSE RATES APPEAR SUFFICIENT FOR A CONDITIONAL THREAT OF HAIL/WIND IN THE OH/TN VALLEYS. CONFIDENCE IN ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS LOW...SO WILL ONLY OUTLOOK LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME. ..HART.. 10/19/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Oct 19 17:30:48 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 19 Oct 2004 12:30:48 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200410191732.i9JHWSu00606@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 191730 SWODY2 SPC AC 191729 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1229 PM CDT TUE OCT 19 2004 VALID 201200Z - 211200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM YKM EPH FCA 25 N BIL 45 SSW GCC ASE 70 SE PGA 45 E IGM 30 W TRM 20 WNW RAL 20 ENE OXR 25 SE PRB 30 N SJC 30 E UKI 45 NW RBL 15 N MFR 15 NNW RDM YKM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE MOB 25 SE GLH 30 NE MLC 45 SW SZL 35 WNW COU 10 ESE STL 50 SSE MTO 25 SE FWA 10 E FKL 15 SW PSB 40 S ROA 45 SSE TYS 20 ENE AHN 25 SSW CAE 40 SE CLT 25 SW RDU 25 SE ORF. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... MID-LEVEL PATTERN IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY THIS PERIOD AS SHORT-WAVE TROUGH EXITS THE ERN SEABOARD. BEHIND THIS TROUGH...AMPLIFICATION OF LARGE-SCALE RIDGE IS FORECAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND ERN CONUS DOWNSTREAM OF STRONG / DIGGING WRN U.S. TROUGH. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...SHARP WRN TROUGH IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM WRN CANADA SWD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN / CA INTO THE ERN PACIFIC W OF BAJA CA...WHILE A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO NWD TO THE GREAT LAKES. ...TN VALLEY REGION... A LOW-PROBABILITY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE MAINTAINED THIS FORECAST PERIOD ACROSS PARTS OF WRN AND MIDDLE TN INTO ADJACENT WRN KY...THOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. DAYTIME HEATING OF MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO CU DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...BUT VERTICAL GROWTH SHOULD REMAIN SUPPRESSED THOUGH MUCH OF THE DAY DUE TO LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE / WARMING AT MID-LEVELS AS RIDGING OVERSPREADS THIS REGION BEHIND DEPARTING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. SUBSIDENCE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE PATTERN / LIMITED BOUNDARY-LAYER CONVERGENCE SUGGESTS ONLY A LIMITED THREAT FOR DEEPER CONVECTION. ADDITIONALLY...EVEN IF CONVECTION GROWS SUFFICIENT DEEP LOCALLY TO ALLOW ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT...RELATIVELY WEAK DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD WITHIN MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE RIDGE SUGGESTS ONLY A MINIMAL SEVERE THREAT AT BEST. ..GOSS.. 10/19/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Oct 20 07:19:13 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 20 Oct 2004 02:19:13 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200410200720.i9K7Kou15367@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 200718 SWODY2 SPC AC 200717 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0217 AM CDT WED OCT 20 2004 VALID 211200Z - 221200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE MOB 0A8 GAD AHN AGS 30 S SAV. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNE ART LEB BAF EWR CXY DUJ 30 NW JHW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ENE ELO VOK PIA BLV 15 NW POF 55 SSE HRO FYV CNU LNK 55 WSW YKN VTN BFF DEN TAD LVS TCS SAD PHX EED TPH WMC BOI S06 FCA 3HT 4BQ Y22 BIS 55 NNE DVL. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... POWERFUL UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY ALONG THE NORTHERN CA COAST WILL TRACK ACROSS THE ROCKIES TODAY AND THURSDAY...WHILE LARGE RIDGE PERSISTS OVER THE MS/OH/TN VALLEYS. DESPITE THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND MODERATE INSTABILITY...A SUBSTANTIAL CAPPING INVERSION IS LIKELY TO INHIBIT DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. ETA/GFS GUIDANCE BOTH SUGGEST A RISK OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THURSDAY EVENING FROM MO/IL INTO MN. MUCAPE VALUES OF UP TO 1000 J/KG WOULD SUGGEST A LOW RISK OF HAIL IN STRONGER CELLS. GFS SOLUTION ALSO SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER PARTS OF EASTERN KS/WESTERN MO AROUND DAYBREAK FRIDAY MORNING. THESE STORMS WOULD BE IN THE WARM SECTOR...AND WOULD POSE AN ISOLATED RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER AS WELL. OVERALL THREAT APPEARS TOO MARGINAL/NEBULOUS AT THIS TIME TO WARRANT A SLIGHT RISK. ..HART.. 10/20/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Oct 20 17:32:43 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 20 Oct 2004 12:32:43 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200410201734.i9KHYJu24185@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 201729 SWODY2 SPC AC 201728 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1228 PM CDT WED OCT 20 2004 VALID 211200Z - 221200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E GPT 45 NNW PNS 10 WSW DHN 45 NE ABY 40 SSW AGS 35 ENE SAV. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WNW OXR 30 SSW NID 65 W DRA 35 NE U31 70 SW 27U 35 WNW FCA 20 SE HVR 40 S GGW 45 E MLS 20 NNE DIK 60 NNE MOT ...CONT... 80 NNW CMX 35 NW IMT 10 W MMO 15 NNE VIH 25 SSE MKO 25 ENE ABI 40 WNW SJT 50 E HOB 10 WNW LBB 20 N CSM 35 ENE HUT 40 N CNK 30 E BUB 20 NNW LBF 10 N IML 20 ESE DEN 15 NNE TAD 10 SSW LVS 10 NNE TCS 10 NNW SAD 25 WNW TUS 70 WSW TUS. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... AMPLIFIED / SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE MID-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN IS FORECAST ACROSS THE CONUS THIS PERIOD...WITH MAIN FEATURE BEING LARGE / DEEP TROUGH OVER THE WRN CONUS. THE TROUGH AXIS -- INITIALLY FORECAST FROM WRN ALBERTA SWD ACROSS NV / CA INTO THE ERN PACIFIC W OF BAJA -- SHOULD EXTEND FROM WRN SASKATCHEWAN SWD TO ERN AZ BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS FEATURE...RIDGE WILL PREVAIL / SHIFT SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS / TN / OH VALLEYS AND UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THE SURFACE...LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN IS FORECAST ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW TURNS SLY IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT FALLS / APPROACHING TROUGH. COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SEWD FROM MT ACROSS THE DAKOTAS / WY AND INTO NEB BY LATE IN THE PERIOD...WITH DEEPENING LOW ALONG FRONT / PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY 22/12Z. ...PORTIONS OF THE MID AND UPPER MS / MIDDLE MO VALLEYS... ALTHOUGH LARGE-SCALE PATTERN APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTIVE / SEVERE THREAT ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS...LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN NWD ACROSS THE PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT AVAILABLE INSTABILITY AND THUS SEVERE POTENTIAL. ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD -- CENTERED OVER IA AND INTO ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SURROUNDING STATES. AS SSWLY LOW-LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES TO 50 TO 60 KT DURING THE EVENING / OVERNIGHT...LOW-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION ABOVE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR ELEVATED STORM DEVELOPMENT. ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT INCREASINGLY-STRONG DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD AND SUFFICIENTLY-STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD SUPPORT A THREAT FOR HAIL WITH A FEW STRONGER STORMS AFTER SUNSET. ..GOSS.. 10/20/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Oct 21 07:29:27 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 21 Oct 2004 02:29:27 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200410210731.i9L7V1u32689@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 210726 SWODY2 SPC AC 210725 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0225 AM CDT THU OCT 21 2004 VALID 221200Z - 231200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM EMP FNB SUX FSD STC EAU RFD DEC ARG GGG ACT 40 SW BWD ABI OKC EMP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE BVE POE AUS 40 SE DRT ...CONT... 80 SE ELP INK LTS END HUT 55 NNE GCK LAA RTN ABQ 15 WSW SOW PRC SGU MLF RWL SHR DIK 60 NE MOT ...CONT... CMX 10 SE MBL AZO HUF 45 NE MKL TCL 35 SSE CEW. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CENTRAL TX INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY... ...MID/UPPER MS VALLEY... VERY STRONG UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL ROTATE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY. DEEP SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE FROM NORTHWEST KS/NORTHEAST CO FRIDAY MORNING...TO NEAR FSD BY 23/00Z. SURFACE DRYLINE WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD FROM LOW INTO EASTERN NEB/KS AND CENTRAL OK/TX. AIRMASS ALONG AND EAST OF DRYLINE WILL BE VERY MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S AS FAR NORTH AS NORTHWEST IA. STRONG SURFACE HEATING IS EXPECTED WEST OF DRYLINE AND SOMEWHAT INTO THE WARM SECTOR...HELPING TO PRODUCE AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 2000 J/KG ALONG THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE DRYLINE. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE PERIOD IN REGION OF STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ACROSS MN/IA/MO. THESE STORMS WILL SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WARM FRONT...WITH A RISK OF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL. OTHER MORE INTENSE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE DRYLINE OVER WESTERN IA/MO INTO EASTERN OK DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AS MAIN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES. VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL PROMOTE SUPERCELL STORMS WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES. GFS AND ETA SOLUTIONS DIFFER IN TIMING AND STRENGTH OF SYSTEM...LESSENING CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE/LOCATION OF SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER IF GFS SOLUTION IS CORRECT...A CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED AND POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE ACTIVITY MAY OCCUR OVER PARTS OF IA/MO...AND AN UPGRADE TO MODERATE RISK WOULD BE REQUIRED. ...TX/SOUTHERN OK... SURFACE DRYLINE WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN OK/NORTH TX FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ETA/GFS GUIDANCE SHOW SUBTROPICAL JET ROTATING ACROSS THIS REGION...WHERE AMPLE MOISTURE AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF THE DRYLINE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER NORTH TX/SOUTHERN OK. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS. ..HART.. 10/21/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Oct 21 17:33:09 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 21 Oct 2004 12:33:09 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200410211734.i9LHYfu27665@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 211732 SWODY2 SPC AC 211731 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1231 PM CDT THU OCT 21 2004 VALID 221200Z - 231200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM EMP 20 NW FNB 20 WNW OTG 20 ESE ATY 25 NNE AXN 40 S DLH 30 NW OSH CMI ARG GGG ACT 40 SW BWD ABI OKC EMP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SE ELP 25 NNE HOB CSM 15 SW SLN 55 WNW CNK 55 SE GLD 25 ENE LHX 10 E PUB 25 SE ALS 40 NNW 4SL 35 WSW 4BL 20 WSW 4HV 25 W VEL 30 W LAR 55 NW CDR 45 NNE MBG 35 WNW INL ...CONT... 35 ESE OSC 10 NE ARB IND 10 SSW MEM 45 W LFK 30 SSE DRT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE ERN PLAINS STATES... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER TROUGH INITIALLY OVER THE ROCKIES IS FORECAST TO SHIFT ENEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES THIS PERIOD...ACCOMPANIED BY 70 TO 80 KT SWLY MID-LEVEL JET. DOWNSTREAM...HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED RIDGE WILL SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES / OH AND TN VALLEYS / WRN GULF THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...LOW INITIALLY FORECAST ACROSS NERN CO WILL DEEPEN AND SHIFT ENEWD ACROSS NEB DURING THE DAY...AND THEN NEWD ACROSS MN TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR LATE IN THE PERIOD. A NW-SE ORIENTED WARM FRONT AT THE LEADING EDGE OF RETURNING MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS IS FORECAST TO SHIFT SLOWLY NEWD ACROSS THE MID MO / MID MS VALLEYS...AND WILL LIKELY PROVIDE A ZONE OF FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. OTHER LOW-LEVEL FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE THE COLD FRONT...FORECAST TO MOVE RAPIDLY EWD / SEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD. THIS FRONT -- FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM MN SWWD INTO FAR NWRN KS DURING THE AFTERNOON -- SHOULD ARC FROM THE WRN UPPER LAKES SWWD ACROSS MO AND INTO THE TRANSPECOS REGION OF TX BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. ...UPPER MS VALLEY SSWWD INTO PARTS OF OK / TX... COMPLEX FORECAST THIS PERIOD AS RAPID CHANGES TO THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT WILL OCCUR OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS AHEAD OF LARGE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. FORECAST WILL BE FURTHER COMPLICATED BY UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING LOCATION AND COVERAGE OF STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG WARM ADVECTION REGIME DURING THE MORNING / AFTERNOON...AND WHAT EFFECTS THIS CONVECTION WILL HAVE ON THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT AS UPPER TROUGH / COLD FRONT APPROACH LATER IN THE DAY. ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT ANY ONGOING CONVECTION AT THE START OF THE PERIOD SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING / AFTERNOON FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY SWWD INTO TX. THOUGH SHEAR BY THIS TIME SHOULD ALREADY BE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS A LARGE AREA...ONE FOCUSED AREA OF THREAT WILL LIKELY EXIST ALONG RETREATING WARM FRONT ACROSS PARTS OF IA / MO INTO THE MID MS VALLEY. WITH BACKED LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD ALONG AND ON THE COOL SIDE OF THIS BOUNDARY AND PARTICULARLY E / NE OF SURFACE LOW...A FAVORABLE ZONE FOR LOW-LEVEL STORM ROTATION AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR TORNADOES WILL EXIST -- SHIFTING NEWD THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. MORE UNCERTAIN WILL BE THE EVOLUTION OF ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. IT APPEARS THAT STORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO ORGANIZE LINEARLY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD AS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES AND COLD FRONT BEGINS A STRONGER PUSH EWD / SEWD. ALTHOUGH HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH A COUPLE OF TORNADOES WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FROM ROUGHLY NERN OK NEWD...THREAT MAY EVOLVE MORE TOWARD DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS MORE LINEAR ORGANIZATION LIKELY OCCURS. FURTHER SWWD ACROSS OK AND INTO PARTS OF TX...STORMS SHOULD BE LESS WIDESPREAD -- LIKELY INITIATING ALONG AN EWD-MOVING DRYLINE. THOUGH SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS...A DRIER / MORE DEEPLY-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGESTS THAT HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS -- WITH THREAT DECREASING WITH SWWD EXTENT. ..GOSS.. 10/21/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Oct 22 07:38:02 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 22 Oct 2004 02:38:02 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200410220739.i9M7dWu13673@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 220737 SWODY2 SPC AC 220736 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0236 AM CDT FRI OCT 22 2004 VALID 231200Z - 241200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE TYR 45 ENE LIT 30 NNE SLO 20 WNW JVL 40 NNW EAU 10 NW DLH 80 N IWD 35 E CMX 35 NNW TVC AZO 30 W MIE 25 SSW LUK 30 SW LOZ 10 ESE HSV 35 WSW TCL 15 NNW HEZ 50 ENE LFK 40 NNE TYR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 115 NE APN 10 ESE ERI MGW 20 E TRI 20 E AHN SEM 15 W MCB 45 N HOU 30 SE SAT 20 WNW LRD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 S MRF 35 WNW P07 FTW 40 SSE HRO 20 SSW SPI 35 ESE DBQ 35 SE MKT 60 N ATY 25 SSW GFK 15 NNW RRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 N FCA 20 N MSO 55 SSW 3DU 50 ESE BKE 75 NNW BNO 15 SW MFR 50 SSW OTH. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE MS...LWR OH AND TN VLYS... ...SYNOPSIS... NRN PART OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE SRN GRT BASIN EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE NE ACROSS THE UPR MS VLY/UPR GRT LKS ON SATURDAY AS SRN PART SHEARS ENE FROM THE SRN PLNS INTO THE TN VLY. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW...LIKELY TO BE OVER CNTRL MN AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...SHOULD LIFT NNE INTO NW ONTARIO. TRAILING COLD FRONT SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES E/NE ACROSS THE MID MS/LWR OH VLYS... WHILE SRN PART BECOMES QUASISTATIONARY OVER E TX AND THE LWR MS VLY. ...UPR MS VLY... STRONG/DEEP FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH NRN PART OF EJECTING SHORTWAVE IMPULSE...COUPLED WITH SUSTAINED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG COLD FRONT...SHOULD SUPPORT A NARROW LINE OF FORCED CONVECTION OVER PARTS OF WI AND PERHAPS WRN/NRN MI ON SATURDAY. WHILE SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY CONTINUE FROM THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...MODEST SURFACE HEATING AND INFLUX OF BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S SHOULD ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT/STRENGTHENING BY MIDDAY AS MLCAPE RISES TO NEAR 1000 J/KG. GIVEN PROXIMITY OF 60 KT SSWLY MID LEVEL JET...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS/SMALL SCALE BOWS WITH HIGH WIND/MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO. THE STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN AS THEY CONTINUE E/NEWD LATER IN THE DAY AS BREADTH OF SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY AXIS WILL REMAIN RATHER LIMITED. ...LWR MS INTO LWR OH/TN VLYS... A SEPARATE AREA OF SOMEWHAT CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST FROM THE LWR OH VLY SW INTO THE LWR MS AND TN VLYS...WHERE A BAND OF MODERATE TO STRONG /50-60 KT/ SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD EXISTING BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH WARM CONVEYOR BELT. ARRIVAL OF STRONGER FLOW...COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING...MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO POSE A THREAT FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS/BOWING SEGMENTS WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM DURING THE AFTERNOON. SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL...HOWEVER...BE LIMITED BY WEAK LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THE RATHER LOW PROSPECTS FOR SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE HEATING. A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY...NEVERTHELESS...CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING ALONG TRAILING SRN PART OF COMPLEX OVER LA/MS. KINEMATIC AND THERMODYNAMIC SETUP IN THIS REGION WILL LIKELY FAVOR SOME BACK-BUILDING/UPSTREAM DEVELOPMENT LATER IN THE PERIOD. ..CORFIDI.. 10/22/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Oct 22 17:26:37 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 22 Oct 2004 12:26:37 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200410221728.i9MHS5u17593@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 221726 SWODY2 SPC AC 221725 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1225 PM CDT FRI OCT 22 2004 VALID 231200Z - 241200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N SLO 30 NE MMO 20 SW EAU 65 N EAU 10 NW IWD 30 S CMX 15 SSW ESC 25 NNW AZO 25 W MIE 25 SSW LUK 45 SW LOZ 25 NE HSV 35 WSW TCL 15 WNW HEZ 45 NE LFK 40 NNE TYR 45 ENE LIT 30 N SLO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ELP 25 SSW HOB 15 ENE BGS 25 ESE ABI 45 N FTW 10 N JLN 10 N OTM 30 S MCW 20 SSW FRM 40 NNE AXN 35 ENE BJI INL ...CONT... 115 NE APN 10 ESE ERI 25 NNW EKN 15 NE TRI 30 ENE ATL 25 SW MGM 20 SE BTR 30 WSW 7R4 ...CONT... 50 S VCT 15 S LRD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 N FCA 40 N 3DU 55 SSW 3DU 40 NW BOI 40 WNW BNO 50 NW RDM 30 SSW AST. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SSWWD ACROSS THE OH / TN / LOWER MS VALLEYS INTO NERN TX... ...SYNOPSIS... MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH INITIALLY OVER THE PLAINS WILL WEAKEN DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS IT SHIFTS EWD TOWARD SHARP UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS. MEANWHILE...LARGE UPSTREAM TROUGH WILL DIG SEWD WITH TIME ACROSS THE WRN CONUS. AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH INITIAL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SHOULD EXTEND SSWWD FROM A SURFACE LOW OVER MN ACROSS THE MO VALLEY AND INTO ERN OK / N TX AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THE MID AND UPPER MS / LOWER AND MID OH VALLEYS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHILE LAGGING / WEAKENING ACROSS N TX THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD. ...UPPER GREAT LAKES SWD ACROSS THE OH / TN / LOWER MS VALLEYS... MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION THIS PERIOD IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WITHIN WARM CONVEYOR / TROPICAL PLUME AHEAD OF MAIN SURFACE FRONT. MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS BAND OF CONVECTION SHOULD INITIALLY EXTEND FROM LK MI SWWD ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY INTO AR / NERN TX...AND WILL THEN SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE OH / TN / LOWER MS VALLEYS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THIS SCENARIO...WHICH SEEMS TO BE CONSISTENT WITH CURRENT CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION...LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR DESTABILIZATION WILL EXIST AHEAD OF CONVECTIVE BAND -- PARTICULARLY N OF THE OH VALLEY WHERE STORMS WILL LIKELY REMAIN PRIMARILY ELEVATED. THIS IS DUE TO THE FACT THAT NOT ONLY WILL THE CONVECTIVE BAND OUTRUN REGION OF STRONGER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION...CONVECTION WILL ALSO BE IMPINGING ON WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT / WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH PERSISTENT ERN U.S. UPPER RIDGE. THOUGH MODELS DO INDICATE SOME DESTABILIZATION DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG FRONT / BEHIND INITIAL CONVECTIVE BAND...LITTLE CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT IS INDICATED BY THE MODELS ALONG FRONTAL ZONE. DESPITE THESE NEGATIVES...STRONG / ROUGHLY UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS OR WIND DAMAGE ALONG ANY LINEAR CONVECTIVE BANDS. ADDITIONALLY...ALTHOUGH FLOW SHOULD REMAIN ROUGHLY UNIDIRECTIONAL ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER...SOME VEERING IN THE 0-1 KM LAYER AS WELL AS AN INCREASE IN WIND SPEED THROUGH THIS LAYER SHOULD RESULT IN SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR AT LEAST A LOW-PROBABILITY TORNADO THREAT. ATTM...WILL MAINTAIN A FAIRLY LARGE SLIGHT RISK AREA TO INCLUDE BOTH THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS OR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO WITHIN PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE BAND AS WELL AS THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE STORM REDEVELOPMENT ALONG FRONT / BEHIND INITIAL BAND OF CONVECTION. SEVERE THREAT WILL DECREASE DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD AS WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH / WIND FIELD AND DIURNAL AIRMASS STABILIZATION OCCUR. ..GOSS.. 10/22/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Oct 23 07:31:31 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 23 Oct 2004 02:31:31 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200410230732.i9N7Wwu12594@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 230730 SWODY2 SPC AC 230729 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0229 AM CDT SAT OCT 23 2004 VALID 241200Z - 251200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW MLB 20 SSW SRQ ...CONT... 25 ESE DUG 20 NNE DMN 40 ENE ROW 40 SW CDS 10 SW OKC FSM 10 SSE PBF 25 SSW JAN 20 N CEW 40 SE CSG 20 SSE AND 40 WNW FLO 30 SW CRE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SW DRA 25 SSW BIH 30 SE NFL 35 SSE EKO 30 W PUC 45 SSE CDC 55 SW DRA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW GLS 40 NNE VCT 50 S SAT 35 NW LRD. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... MODERATE W TO WSWLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CNTRL U.S. ON SUNDAY ...BETWEEN BROAD/FLAT RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SERIES OF PROGRESSIVE DISTURBANCES IN THE NRN BRANCH CROSSING THE RCKYS...NRN PLNS AND UPR MS VLY. THE GULF RIDGE WILL BUILD N INTO THE LWR MS VLY LATER IN THE PERIOD AS STRONG IMPULSE NOW CROSSING THE ALEUTIANS CONTINUES SEWD AND AMPLIFIES WITHIN MEAN TROUGH OVER THE NE PACIFIC. AT LOWER LEVELS...FRONT/COMPOSITE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH AFFECTING THE PLNS/MS VLY REGION WILL WEAKEN AS IT BECOMES QUASISTATIONARY OVER SE TX AND THE LWR MS VLY BY 12Z SUNDAY. THE WRN PART OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL REDEVELOP N TO NEAR THE RED RIVER LATER SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE OVER ERN PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLNS. FARTHER N...A SECONDARY FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW IN THE PACIFIC NW WILL DROP S ACROSS THE CNTRL RCKYS/PLNS. ...S CNTRL TX NE TO THE ARKLATEX... A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP WITH DAYTIME HEATING OVER S CNTRL AND SE TX...IN ZONE OF WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG STALLING FRONT AND/OR ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LEFT FROM DAY ONE PREFRONTAL CONVECTIVE BAND. RELATIVELY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES /AROUND MINUS 8 AT 500 MB/ SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL DESPITE PRESENCE OF RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE. SURFACE HEATING WILL...HOWEVER...LIKELY BOOST MEAN MLCAPE TO AOA 1000 J/KG. COUPLED WITH 40 KT WSWLY MID LEVEL FLOW ON FRINGE OF UPPER RIDGE...SETUP COULD YIELD A FEW SUSTAINED STORMS/ORGANIZED CLUSTERS WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND WIND DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL STRONG TO POSSIBLY LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE PERIOD OVER PARTS OF N CNTRL AND NE TX AS WARM ADVECTION/ MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASE N OF DEVELOPING WARM FRONT. WHILE PROXIMITY OF UPPER RIDGE WILL STILL KEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES RATHER WEAK...GULF MOISTURE INFLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO 1000-1500 J/KG ELEVATED CAPE. SUFFICIENT /35 KT/ CLOUD-LAYER SHEAR MAY BE PRESENT TO SUPPORT A FEW STORMS WITH HAIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. ..CORFIDI.. 10/23/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Oct 23 17:30:13 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 23 Oct 2004 12:30:13 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200410231731.i9NHVcu11015@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 231726 SWODY2 SPC AC 231725 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1225 PM CDT SAT OCT 23 2004 VALID 241200Z - 251200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 SSW GDP 35 E CNM 10 SW CDS 15 ESE OKC 35 ENE BVO 35 NNE SGF 50 ESE VIH 40 N DYR 45 WSW CBM 15 ESE LFT 25 S HOU 30 NNW NIR 60 W COT. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WHICH HAS MOVED ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. THE LAST 24-36 HOURS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT IMPINGES ON PERSISTENT RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE ERN CONUS. MEANWHILE...MEAN LONG-WAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN ESTABLISHED OVER THE WEST. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKENING TROUGH APPROACHING THE ERN CONUS WILL ALSO WEAKEN WITH TIME...WITH DISSIPATING / TRAILING PORTION OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS TX POSSIBLY ACTING AS A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...SECOND COLD FRONT WILL SURGE SEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS PERIOD AHEAD OF STRONG SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE NRN PLAINS. ...TX / ARKLATEX REGION... LARGE-SCALE HEIGHT RISES AND A RETURN TO A LOW-LEVEL SLY FLOW / WARM ADVECTION REGIME WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS THIS PERIOD AS ERN U.S. SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WEAKENS AND NEW SURFACE SYSTEM DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PLAINS. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND SUFFICIENTLY-UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL RETURN NWD ACROSS TX DURING THE AFTERNOON...DISSIPATING BOUNDARY AND GENERAL HEIGHT RISES SUGGEST LITTLE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. IF SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE FOR ISOLATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT CAN PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON ALONG WEAKENING FRONT...MID-LEVEL FLOW IN THE 35 TO 40 KT RANGE WOULD SUPPORT SOME UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION. THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN LOW PROBABILITY SEVERE THREAT OVER CENTRAL TX DURING THE DAY. SOMEWHAT GREATER COVERAGE OF CONVECTION MAY EVOLVE OVERNIGHT AS A MODEST SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET AND ASSOCIATED ENHANCEMENT OF WARM ADVECTION ARE EXPECTED TO EVOLVE. ALTHOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR SOME UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION...ONLY MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NWD INTO N TX / SERN OK / AR. THIS SUGGESTS THAT STORMS SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY WEAK...AND THUS ONLY A LOW-PROBABILITY THREAT FOR MARGINALLY-SEVERE HAIL APPEARS TO EXIST. ..GOSS.. 10/23/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Oct 24 07:33:05 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 24 Oct 2004 02:33:05 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200410240734.i9O7YRu13936@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 240732 SWODY2 SPC AC 240730 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0230 AM CDT SUN OCT 24 2004 VALID 251200Z - 261200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW HUM 40 SSW ESF 30 NW LFK 55 E JCT 35 SSE DRT ...CONT... 30 SW FHU 70 SW SOW 45 WNW GUP 20 ENE PGA 40 SSW P38 25 SW TPH 25 NNW U31 45 WSW ENV 25 N OGD 35 SE JAC 45 WSW GCC 25 SSE DGW 55 SW LAR 45 SSE GUC 20 NNE LVS 10 NNW DHT 50 SE GLD 25 SSE BBW 25 SSW SUX 35 WSW OTM 25 NE SGF 60 ENE PBF 30 WSW MEI 20 E PNS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNW 4BK 35 WSW MHS 35 NW SAC 30 WNW SFO. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... THE UPPER PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE LWR 48 ON MONDAY AS SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW OVER THE GULF OF AK DEEPENS UPON CONTINUING SE TOWARD THE ORE CST. THIS DEEPENING WILL OCCUR IN RESPONSE TO RIDGING DOWNSTREAM FROM STRONG SYSTEM NOW NEARING THE DATELINE... AND WILL ALLOW GULF OF MEXICO RIDGE TO BUILD N ACROSS THE SERN STATES. ELSEWHERE...A COMPARATIVELY WEAK DISTURBANCE NOW OFF THE CA CST WILL LIFT NEWD IN DEVELOPING SW FLOW OVER THE RCKYS. AT LWR LEVELS...BOUNDARY NOW DISSIPATING OVER S CNTRL AND SE TX SHOULD BEGIN TO EDGE NWD LATER TODAY...ALTHOUGH NWD MOTION WILL LIKELY BE RETARDED BY CONTINUED PRODUCTION OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW. BY MONDAY...WHATEVER IS LEFT OF THIS FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD REDEVELOP NWD INTO NRN OK/SRN KS...IN VICINITY OF STALLING COLD FRONT NOW DROPPING SE ACROSS THE WRN DAKOTAS. THE COMBINED BOUNDARIES WILL LIKELY LIFT NWD ACROSS THE CNTRL PLNS MONDAY NIGHT...AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE IMPULSE CROSSING THE RCKYS. ...SRN/CNTRL PLNS AND WRN OZARKS... WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK WARM FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE THE FOCUS FOR PERIODIC CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY TWO PERIOD OVER N TX. OTHER STORMS MAY FORM WITH DAYTIME HEATING ALONG LEE TROUGH/DRY LINE IN THE WRN PART OF THE STATE...WHERE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ENVIRONMENT MAY ALLOW MEAN MLCAPE TO RISE TO NEAR 1500 J/KG. SUFFICIENT /35-40 KT/ DEEP WSWLY SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT FOR ORGANIZED ACTIVITY. BUT RELATIVELY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES /MINUS 8 TO MINUS 9 C AT 500 MB/ SHOULD LIMIT THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL...AND ANY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN LOCALIZED. FARTHER N AND LATER IN THE PERIOD...SUSTAINED WARM ADVECTION AND SEASONABLY RICH MOISTURE INFLOW /850 MB DEWPOINTS AOA 12C/ DOWNSTREAM FROM SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE RCKYS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED STORMS FROM THE NRN OK N/NEWD INTO THE SRN NEB AND WRN PORTIONS OF THE OZARKS. AMPLE /40 KT/ CLOUD LAYER SHEAR WILL EXIST FOR ORGANIZED CELLS...AND MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE 3-4 DEGREES COOLER RELATIVE TO POINTS FARTHER S. THUS... SETUP MAY SUPPORT A FEW SUSTAINED STORMS WITH HAIL. UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EVENTUAL AXIS OF STRONGEST ELEVATED ASCENT AND QUESTIONS REGARDING DEGREE OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY SUGGEST THAT A CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK OF SEVERE IS UNWARRANTED ATTM. ..CORFIDI.. 10/24/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Oct 24 17:20:33 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 24 Oct 2004 12:20:33 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200410241721.i9OHLsu08544@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 241719 SWODY2 SPC AC 241718 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1218 PM CDT SUN OCT 24 2004 VALID 251200Z - 261200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WSW TUS 35 NNE PHX 15 N INW 30 WSW 4BL 15 ENE 4HV 10 ENE MLF 50 ESE ELY 30 W DPG 25 N OGD WRL 35 W REJ 45 NNE RAP 30 SSW MHN 25 W EAR 35 ENE RSL 40 NNE MHK 35 W LWD 30 SSE OTM 30 SSE UIN POF 35 SSW MEM 35 N MCB 25 SSW HEZ POE 30 NW LFK 25 ESE JCT 25 SSE DRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N CLM 40 WNW MFR 55 W RBL 10 NW SFO. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... SOME AMPLIFICATION OF LARGE-SCALE UPPER PATTERN IS FORECAST THIS PERIOD AS WRN TROUGH STRENGTHENS WHILE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXPANDS NWD ACROSS THE TN / OH VALLEYS. DESPITE THIS AMPLIFICATION...LITTLE EWD PROGRESSION OF OVERALL TROUGH / RIDGE PATTERN IS FORECAST. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAKENING FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY EWD / SEWD ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY / OZARKS / SRN PLAINS. ...W TX NEWD ACROSS THE RD RIVER INTO THE OZARKS... ALTHOUGH LARGE-SCALE HEIGHT RISES ARE FORECAST ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD...FAIRLY MOIST / UNSTABLE AIRMASS COMBINED WITH WEAK LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME SUGGESTS THAT A LIMITED SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS REGION THIS PERIOD. WEAKENING FRONT MOVING SEWD ACROSS THIS REGION MAY FOCUS ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON...AS LIMITED HEATING ALLOWS 500 TO 1500 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE TO EVOLVE AHEAD OF FRONT. ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT A SLIGHTLY MORE WIDESPREAD THREAT MAY EVOLVE ACROSS PARTS OF THE TRANSPECOS REGION OF W TX BY LATE AFTERNOON...AS MODELS SUGGEST THAT A WEAK SRN STREAM SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVES NNEWD INTO THIS REGION OUT OF NRN MEXICO. OVERNIGHT...THIS CONVECTION SHOULD EXPAND NEWD ACROSS TX INTO OK...WHILE OTHER / MAINLY ELEVATED STORMS EVOLVE AS WEAK LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AFTER DARK. IN ADDITION TO FAIRLY WEAK LARGE-SCALE FORCING ACROSS THIS REGION...ANOTHER LIMITING FACTOR IN TERMS OF SEVERE THREAT OVER MOST OF THE REGION WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK DEEP-LAYER FLOW. MOST FAVORABLE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE ACROSS PARTS OF W TX AS UPPER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES...WITH STRONGER WIND FIELD SPREADING NNEWD TOWARD SWRN OK LATE. PARTS OF THE WRN HALF OF TX MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO SLIGHT RISK IN LATER FORECASTS IF MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH APPROACHING SRN STREAM FEATURE. OTHERWISE...IT APPEARS ATTM THAT ONLY A LIMITED SEVERE THREAT EXISTS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THIS REGION. ..GOSS.. 10/24/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Oct 25 07:32:30 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 25 Oct 2004 02:32:30 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200410250733.i9P7Xnu26903@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 250731 SWODY2 SPC AC 250730 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0230 AM CDT MON OCT 25 2004 VALID 261200Z - 271200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM BVE 35 NW GPT 10 WSW JAN 30 ESE HOT 35 N PRX 20 NE FTW 10 SE BWD 20 WNW JCT 50 SSE DRT ...CONT... 65 ESE DUG 40 NNW SVC 15 S GNT 20 NNE 4SL 35 N LVS 20 SE TCC 25 SSW AMA 50 WSW GAG 25 ENE LBL 55 SW HLC 25 WSW BBW 20 S HON 20 WNW AXN 50 ENE STC 40 ESE EAU 25 SSE RFD 25 ENE BMG 45 NW CSV 20 S ANB 30 SSE PNS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 S OTH 50 SSW RDM 15 ESE BNO 40 SE OWY 25 NW CDC 45 S IGM 25 SE IPL. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS NOAM ON TUESDAY. ONE BAND OF WLYS WILL EXTEND FROM W TO E ACROSS CNTRL CANADA...WHILE THE SRN BRANCH WILL CURVE AROUND CLOSED LOW NOW DEEPENING OFF THE BC CST. THE LOW SHOULD REDEVELOP SSE DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HRS...AND SHOULD BE CENTERED NEAR RNO BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. DOWNSTREAM FROM THE LOW...FURTHER AMPLIFICATION OF GULF RIDGE APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS THE SERN STATES. AT LWR LEVELS...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH E PACIFIC LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY SE ACROSS THE CNTRL PART OF CA DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY... AND SHOULD REACH THE LAX AREA TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. A COOL...UNSTABLE CYCLONIC REGIME WILL PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. E OF THE RCKYS...WARM FRONT THAT WILL DEVELOP/STRENGTHEN OVER THE SRN/CNTRL PLNS LATER TODAY SHOULD CONTINUE NE INTO THE MID VLY BY 12Z WEDNESDAY AS HEIGHTS RISE ACROSS THE GULF CST/LWR MS VLY. A REINFORCING SURGE OF COOL AIR...ASSOCIATED WITH SRN STREAM IMPULSE NOW OVER NV...MAY RETARD NWD MOTION OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS NEB/NRN KS. ...CNTRL CA... CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW BENEATH DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH...MODEST SURFACE HEATING AND VERY COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES /AOB MINUS 25 C AT 500 MB/ WILL LIKELY SUPPORT SCATTERED...DIURNALLY-ENHANCED POST-FRONTAL CONVECTION OVER PARTS OF NRN CA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GIVEN LOW FREEZING LEVELS...SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY OCCUR...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. FARTHER S...IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE SE-MOVING COLD FRONT...MORE CLOUDINESS WILL LIKELY EXIST THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...THE MEAN 700-500 MB FLOW IN THIS REGION LIKELY EXCEED 40 KTS FROM SFO SWD TO AROUND LAX AND EWD INTO THE CNTRL VLY. THUS...THREAT WILL EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS IF DEEP SUSTAINED CONVECTION DOES INDEED DEVELOP ALONG FRONTAL BAND. BUT WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT /RELATIVE TO POINTS FARTHER N/ AND MORE ABUNDANT CLOUDS LIMITING LOW LEVEL DESTABILIZATION...A CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK OF SEVERE APPEARS UNWARRANTED ATTM. IN ADDITION...UPPER SYSTEM MAY TEND TO MOVE PARALLEL TO THE CST DURING MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS RIDGE BUILDS UPSTREAM OVER THE NE PACIFIC. THIS WILL TEND TO LIMIT COOLING ALOFT AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT OVER TOPOGRAPHICALLY FAVORED AREAS FOR SUPERCELLS OVER THE CNTRL VLY. ...CNTRL PLNS/MID MS VLY... SETUP WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR THE PERIODIC DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED STORM CLUSTERS IN AREA OF PERSISTENT WARM ADVECTION/MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVER ERN PARTS OF THE CNTRL PLNS. THE DEGREE OF ELEVATED CAPE DOES NOT APPEAR SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SIGNIFICANT SEVERE HAIL...ALTHOUGH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST/MOST PERSISTENT STORMS. A BIT FARTHER S...AN AREA OF STRONG SURFACE-BASED STORMS MAY MOVE/DEVELOP E/NE ALONG PORTION OF WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM ERN OK INTO AR AND NRN MS/W TN. SURFACE HEATING ALONG THIS CORRIDOR...IN CONJUNCTION WITH SEASONABLY RICH GULF MOISTURE INFLOW...MAY BOOST MEAN MLCAPE TO 1500 J/KG. BAND OF 40 KT WSWLY MID LEVEL FLOW ON PERIPHERY OF GULF RIDGE WILL SUPPLY SUFFICIENT DEEP SHEAR FOR STORM ORGANIZATION...BUT ABSENCE OF A WELL-DEFINED SRN STREAM DISTURBANCE SHOULD LESSEN THREAT FOR SUSTAINED SEVERE STORMS. ..CORFIDI.. 10/25/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Oct 25 17:26:37 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 25 Oct 2004 12:26:37 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200410251727.i9PHRtu21023@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 251725 SWODY2 SPC AC 251724 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1224 PM CDT MON OCT 25 2004 VALID 261200Z - 271200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM BVE 35 NW GPT 25 SE GLH 30 ESE HOT 35 N PRX 20 NE FTW 25 ENE BWD 15 E JCT 50 NW LRD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 WSW TUS 45 SSW PRC 50 E LAS 30 SSE DRA 40 ESE NID 35 SSW RAL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE ONP 55 SSW RDM 45 E BNO 25 E BYI 15 NNE GJT 20 SE ALS 35 SE RTN 35 WSW EHA 50 E LAA 30 E AKO 30 ESE CDR 45 S PHP 20 W YKN 20 WNW OTG 25 N RWF 35 N MSP 25 ENE EAU 10 NNW MKE 20 ENE BMG 20 WSW CSV 30 NE ANB 25 S CEW. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...MID MS VALLEY... DOMINANT UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BUILD NWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE DAY2 PERIOD. BENEATH THE UPPER RIDGE THE ONLY PROSPECT FOR SIGNIFICANT DESTABILIZATION/ASCENT WILL OCCUR ALONG THE RETREATING WARM FRONT FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY REGION. EVEN SO...IT APPEARS WEAK LAPSE RATES DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION WILL LIMIT THE INSTABILITY WITHIN ZONE WHERE SUSTAINED DEEP CONVECTION HAS A REASONABLE HOPE OF INTENSIFYING. LATEST THINKING IS WEAK LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO SPREAD/DEVELOP NEWD FROM OK INTO MO EARLY IN THE PERIOD. WITHIN AN EXPANDING ZONE OF CONVECTION THERE MAY BE EMBEDDED STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED HAIL OR PERHAPS A WIND GUST. ...CA... DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG SWD ALONG THE WEST COAST AS SPEED MAX ROTATES INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH...THEN TOWARD SRN CA COAST LATE IN THE PERIOD. GIVEN THE STRONG SWD MOVEMENT OF THIS FEATURE...SFC TROUGHING AND FOCUSED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAY REMAIN ALONG THE COAST UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD STEEPEN ENOUGH...ROUGHLY 7C/KM...TO ENHANCE INSTABILITY INLAND WHERE SELY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL BE MAINTAINED. ANY STORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP IN THE VALLEY WILL EVOLVE WITHIN A FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR STORM ROTATION. HAIL APPEARS THE PRIMARY THEAT IF ACTIVITY CAN ORGANIZE. ..DARROW.. 10/25/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Oct 26 07:30:59 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 26 Oct 2004 02:30:59 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200410260732.i9Q7WFu28163@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 260729 SWODY2 SPC AC 260728 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0228 AM CDT TUE OCT 26 2004 VALID 271200Z - 281200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NW INL 40 W AXN 20 E YKN 50 ESE OMA 35 NW UIN 30 E MMO 25 W CMH ROA 35 SE AND 10 NW LGC 15 SSE MSL 30 WNW PBF 25 ENE DAL 45 NNE JCT DRT ...CONT... 20 WSW DUG 20 SSW SAD 40 S SOW 55 SSW INW 35 WNW PHX 65 SE YUM ...CONT... 10 WSW SFO 45 NE MER 45 SSW U31 10 NE EKO 55 NNW SUN 40 E DLN 20 SSE RIW 50 W EGE 35 SW GUC 15 NE ALS 40 NE PUB 20 E BFF 60 N PHP 55 NNW MOT. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... AMPLIFIED WRN TROUGH/ERN RIDGE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER NOAM ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SPLIT PERSISTING ALONG THE BC CST. DEEPENING LOW NOW DROPPING SSE OFF THE ORE/NRN CA CST SHOULD BE CENTERED NEAR SFO/SAC AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. STRENGTH AND MOTION OF UPSTREAM TROUGH NOW APPROACHING WRN AK SUGGEST THAT CA SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY SE ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SOME ADDITIONAL DEEPENING POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE...GULF OF MEXICO RIDGE EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUASISTATIONARY...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY. AT LWR LEVELS...SURFACE WARM FRONT NOW DEVELOPING OVER KS/MO SHOULD CONTINUE TO EDGE NWD/EWD ON WEDNESDAY AS LEE TROUGH SLOWLY DEEPENS OVER THE CNTRL AND NRN HI PLNS. MODERATE S TO SWLY FLOW S OF THE BOUNDARY WILL ALLOW UNSEASONABLY WARM/MOIST AIR TO SPREAD N ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE PLNS. ...CNTRL AND SRN CA... COOL CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER CNTRL AND SRN CA ON WEDNESDAY...N OF 80 KT JET MAX ROUNDING BASE OF DEEP UPPER LOW. THE MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL LIKELY HAVE CLEARED ALL BUT THE EXTREME SE CORNER BY MID AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE HEATING/LOW LEVEL DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR OVER THE LAX BASIN NWD INTO THE SRN HALF OF THE CNTRL VLY. GIVEN COLD TEMPERATURES AT MID LEVELS /AOB -20 C AT 500 MB/... SETUP SHOULD SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED DIURNALLY-ENHANCED STORMS. DEVELOPMENT WILL PROBABLY BE MOST CONCENTRATED IN THE LAX AREA...WHERE MODERATE MARITIME SWLY FLOW WILL MOST STRONGLY IMPINGE ON THE CSTL MTNS. LOW FREEZING LEVELS /AROUND 800 MB/ AND LINGERING LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT MAY YIELD A FEW SUSTAINED STORMS WITH HAIL. THE POTENTIAL WILL ALSO EXIST FOR A FEW LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS...AS PROXIMITY OF UPPER JET WILL MAINTAIN CLOUD-LAYER SHEAR VALUES AOA 35-40 KTS. ATTM...HOWEVER ...IT APPEARS THAT THE MOST FAVORABLE SETUP FOR SUSTAINED SEVERE ACTIVITY MAY REMAIN OFFSHORE...CLOSER TO BASE OF ELONGATING UPPER TROUGH. ...CNTRL PLNS/MID MS VLY... SETUP WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SCATTERED ELEVATED STORMS/ STORM CLUSTERS IN AREA OF PERSISTENT WARM ADVECTION/MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL PLNS/MID MS VLY. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD SHIFT NWD/EWD WITH TIME AS GULF RIDGE CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY. FARTHER S...AN ARC OF SCATTERED SURFACE-BASED ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY PERSIST FROM W TX E/NE INTO WRN/NRN OK...SE KS AND NRN AR/SRN MO. QUALITY OF MOISTURE INFLOW /850 MB DEWPOINTS AOA 12C/ AND STRENGTH OF CLOUD LAYER SHEAR /AROUND 30 KTS/ ONCE AGAIN SUGGEST THAT AT LEAST A LIMITED THREAT WILL EXIST FOR A FEW SUSTAINED STORMS...AND ONE OR TWO WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND/HAIL. BUT ABSENCE OF A STRONG SRN STREAM DISTURBANCE TO FOCUS LARGE SCALE ASCENT...DEEP MOIST PROFILES AND RELATIVELY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES SHOULD MINIMIZE THREAT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE. ..CORFIDI.. 10/26/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Oct 26 17:22:32 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 26 Oct 2004 12:22:32 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200410261723.i9QHNku30235@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 261721 SWODY2 SPC AC 261720 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1220 PM CDT TUE OCT 26 2004 VALID 271200Z - 281200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NW INL AXN 25 ENE OTG 20 ESE IRK 25 NW MDH 15 W EVV 30 NW LUK UNI SSU 30 W GSO 45 NNW AGS 40 SSE ATL 15 WNW ANB 15 SSE MSL 30 WNW PBF 25 ENE DAL 45 NNE JCT DRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WSW SFO 40 N RNO 50 N BAM 15 E OWY 25 WNW SUN 30 SSE 27U 30 N WEY 20 SW COD 20 SSE RIW 20 NNW CAG 10 SSW ASE 60 W PUB 30 E COS 35 E CYS 55 WSW RAP 35 N REJ 65 NW MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSE FHU 50 W SAD 60 SW SOW 55 NNE PHX 35 WNW PHX 65 SE YUM. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...ALTHOUGH WRN U.S. UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INLAND WHILE A SLIGHT EWD SHIFT TO THE RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED OVER THE MS VALLEY. THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR EPISODIC WARM ADVECTION EVENTS ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT NOT PARTICULARLY UNSTABLE OR FOCUSED FOR DEEP CONVERGENCE. ...CENTRAL PLAINS... EWD SHIFT TO UPPER RIDGE WILL ALLOW SFC WARM FRONT TO RETREAT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY REGION ALLOWING MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER TO RETURN TO MUCH OF KS/MO. DESPITE THIS MOISTENING PROCESS...IT APPEARS THUNDERSTORMS MAY STRUGGLE TO ORGANIZE ALONG/SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT DUE TO THE LACK OF STRONG HEATING/FORCING. THIS WILL LIMIT MUCH OF THE CONVECTION TO AREAS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY ATOP COOLER AIRMASS WITHIN WARM ADVECTION ZONE. WITH MARGINAL LAPSE RATES IT DOES NOT APPEAR NRN CONVECTION WILL PROVE TERRIBLY EFFICIENT IN GENERATING HAIL...ALTHOUGH ANY WARM SECTOR STORMS THAT DEVELOP MAY PERHAPS GENERATE A WIND GUST OR SOME HAIL...ESPECIALLY IF ACTIVITY CAN EVOLVE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON WHEN THE INSTABILITY MAY BE SOMEWHAT HIGHER. ...SRN CA... STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT ACROSS SRN CA DURING THE DAY2 PERIOD ALLOWING SFC FRONT TO MOVE INLAND TOWARD THE SWRN DESERT REGION. STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND THE INLAND SURGE OF MARINE AIR MAY PROVE SUFFICIENT IN GENERATING ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WITHIN THE POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. ..DARROW.. 10/26/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Oct 27 07:32:30 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 27 Oct 2004 02:32:30 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200410270733.i9R7Xgu06308@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 270731 SWODY2 SPC AC 270730 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0230 AM CDT WED OCT 27 2004 VALID 281200Z - 291200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 95 NE APN 30 NNW MTC 20 NE CMH 15 ESE CRW 40 NE HKY CAE 25 NE SSI 35 E VLD 25 WNW ABY 35 ENE 0A8 10 NNW UOX 15 SE HOT 45 E DAL 60 NW AUS 65 WSW COT ...CONT... 30 SE YUM 50 W GCN 15 ESE ELY 15 SW WMC 85 NNW WMC 55 E BNO 40 W 27U 20 NW BZN 20 SSW BIL 40 SSW MLS 35 ESE GDV 65 NNW MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WSW MRF 55 N HOB AMA 45 N GAG 25 S RSL 45 NNE HLC 20 WNW GLD 20 N LHX 40 SE RTN 40 ESE ONM 45 SSW DMN. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ..SYNOPSIS... STRONG CLOSED LOW NOW NEARING SFO SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN MORE EWD LATER TODAY...AND REACH THE CA/NV BORDER AREA NEAR BIH BY 12Z THURSDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY ACCELERATE ENE ACROSS THE GRT BASIN LATER THURSDAY AND REACH THE CNTRL RCKYS/HI PLNS BY 12Z FRIDAY AS BROAD SWATH OF WLY FLOW PROGRESSES FROM THE DATELINE REGION TO THE NE PACIFIC. THE ECMWF REMAINS THE SLOWEST IN ITS HANDLING OF THE CA SYSTEM RELATIVE TO THE ETA AND GFS AND IS PREFERRED AS SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW SHORTWAVE IMPULSES STILL MOVING SWD ON W SIDE OF MAIN LOW. ...ERN UT/NRN AZ TO CNTRL RCKYS... A BROKEN LINE OF FORCED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH EJECTING SRN CA VORT ON THURSDAY AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES FROM CNTRL UT/WRN AZ ENE INTO CO/SW WY. COMPARATIVELY LIMITED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH STRONGLY-BACKED UPPER FLOW WILL LIKELY KEEP MEAN MLCAPE BELOW 500 J/KG. IN ADDITION...LOWER TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES WILL PROBABLY BE ONLY MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTIVE DOWNDRAFT DEVELOPMENT. BUT COMBINATION OF STRONG FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING FOR ASCENT...40-50 KT MEAN WIND SWLY FLOW AND RELATIVELY WARM PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED BOWING SEGMENTS WITH HIGH WIND...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ...NRN PLNS/UPR MS VLY... LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION/MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY OVER WRN PORTIONS OF THE NRN PLNS LATER IN THE PERIOD...AT ABOUT THE SAME TIME THAT HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH EJECTING SHORTWAVE BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD REGION. BACKING OF MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM FROM DISTURBANCE WILL TEND TO MAKE CLOUD LAYER WIND PROFILES MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL AND WEAKEN MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. BUT STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT IN EXIT REGION OF 90 KT UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX SUGGESTS THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP EARLY FRIDAY OVER PARTS OF WRN/NRN NEB...SD AND PERHAPS SRN ND...DESPITE SOMEWHAT LIMITED AND ELEVATED NATURE OF MOISTURE INFLOW. STRENGTH OF CLOUD LAYER SHEAR /AROUND 40 KTS/ MAY SUPPORT A THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE WIND/MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. FARTHER E...A FEW CLUSTERS OF ELEVATED STORMS MAY AFFECT PARTS OF MN/WI AND IA THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...IN REGION OF STRONGEST 850 MB WARM ADVECTION/MOISTURE TRANSPORT DOWNSTREAM FROM EJECTING UPPER TROUGH. WITH 850 MB DEWPOINTS RISING TO AOA 12C...SUFFICIENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP TO YIELD A FEW CELLS WITH SEVERE HAIL...DESPITE WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES. ..CORFIDI.. 10/27/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Oct 27 17:33:32 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 27 Oct 2004 12:33:32 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200410271734.i9RHYgu06252@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 271732 SWODY2 SPC AC 271731 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1231 PM CDT WED OCT 27 2004 VALID 281200Z - 291200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 E ANJ 30 NNW MTC 20 NE CMH 15 ESE CRW 40 NE HKY CAE 25 NE SSI 30 SSE JAX 50 SSE CTY ...CONT... 30 ESE GPT 10 SW LUL 30 SSW GWO 40 E LIT 60 N HOT 25 WSW PGO 35 NNW TYR 50 NE CLL 15 WSW GLS ...CONT... 50 S CRP 10 NW SAT 35 SE JCT 40 SW JCT DRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW PUB RTN 20 SSE LVS TCC 30 SSW EHA 55 NE GCK 20 NW GRI 60 NW OFK 45 NE ANW 30 W VTN 10 NNW AIA 30 ESE CYS 30 SSE DEN 15 SW PUB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE YUM 50 W GCN 15 ESE ELY 15 SW WMC 85 NNW WMC 55 E BNO 40 W 27U 20 WSW BZN 35 WNW SHR 25 WSW 4BQ 50 NE 4BQ 55 N ISN. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...NRN PLAINS... EXIT REGION OF UPPER SPEED MAX WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE CNTRL ROCKIES INTO THE NRN PLAINS LATE IN THE DAY2 PERIOD. LARGE SCALE ASCENT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE WILL AID SFC CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS REGION JUST SOUTH OF THE BLACK HILLS. LOW CENTER WILL THEN MOVE NEWD ALONG TIGHTENING BAROCLINIC ZONE TOWARD SERN SD AFTER MIDNIGHT. IN ADVANCE OF UPPER SPEED MAX...INCREASING LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY WILL UNDOUBTEDLY AID ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF MN INTO WRN WI. A FEW STORMS ACROSS THIS REGION MAY GENERATE SOME HAIL...OR PERHAPS STRONG WINDS WITH NEAR SFC-BASED CONVECTION ALONG RETREATING WARM FRONT. ...SRN/CNTRL PLAINS... HIGH PLAINS CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE NEB PANHANDLE WILL ENHANCE LEE TROUGHING ACROSS WRN KS INTO THE TX PANHANDLE IN ADVANCE OF UPPER TROUGH. THIS SHOULD AID BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING FROM ERN NM INTO SWRN KS BY LATE AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. ONE ARGUMENT AGAINST A SLIGHT RISK ACROSS THIS REGION IS THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT FORCING/CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LEE TROUGH. IT APPEARS ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL REMAIN ISOLATED AND POSSIBLY SHORT-LIVED...ALTHOUGH A FEW MAY PRODUCE HAIL OR STRONG WINDS. ..DARROW.. 10/27/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Oct 28 07:35:29 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 28 Oct 2004 02:35:29 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200410280736.i9S7abu03958@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 280733 SWODY2 SPC AC 280732 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0232 AM CDT THU OCT 28 2004 VALID 291200Z - 301200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ENE PLN 15 E MBS 20 NW ARB 35 ENE FWA 15 ENE IND 65 N LIT 35 ENE PGO 10 W MLC 15 SW TUL 10 SSE MKC 20 ENE DSM 25 NNE FOD 10 E OTG 30 NW RWF 15 ENE AXN 25 ENE DLH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SE JAX 10 W CTY 25 ENE AQQ 10 SE TOI 40 S BNA 30 E MKL 55 NNE GLH 50 NNW HOU 15 WNW LRD ...CONT... 75 SSW P07 35 WSW ABI 30 N FSI 30 WSW TOP 30 SSE OMA 40 ESE OFK 15 N BUB 45 NNE VTN 35 ENE PIR 20 E FAR 35 E INL ...CONT... 30 NNW PBG 30 WNW MSV 30 SE MRB 10 S DAN 25 E CHS. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES SSWWD TO THE ERN OK/NW AR AREA.... ...SYNOPSIS... THE DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER CA/NV WILL EJECT ENEWD OVER THE PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY BY TOMORROW NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING ESEWD TOWARD THE PAC NW FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA. A SURFACE LOW INVOF NE NEB/SE SD EARLY IN THE PERIOD IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ENEWD TOWARD UPPER MI WHILE A TRAILING COLD FRONT AND REMNANT LEE TROUGH MOVE EWD ACROSS THE ERN PLAINS DURING THE DAY AND THE MID MS VALLEY LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE PRIMARY THUNDERSTORM THREAT AREAS WILL BE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MS VALLEY REGION. ...MS VALLEY REGION... A BROAD/RELATIVELY MOIST WARM SECTOR IS ALREADY ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE GULF STATES AND AS FAR N AS KS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. THIS MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NWD TODAY AND TOMORROW...RESULTING IN A MOIST/UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR TOMORROW FROM THE GREAT LAKES SWD TO THE GULF COAST. WITH MLCAPE VALUES EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 1000-2000 J/KG TOMORROW AFTERNOON IN CONJUNCTION WITH ROUGHLY 50 KT SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR...THERE WILL BE A BROAD AREA WITH AT LEAST SOME THREAT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS. THE MORE PROBABLE AREA FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE IMMEDIATELY IN ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE WI AREA...WHERE INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS/BOWING SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND POSSIBLY A FEW TORNADOES. FARTHER S...A FEW SEVERE STORMS SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING NEAR THE SURFACE COLD FRONT FROM ERN OK INTO MO. INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS THIS AREA...ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING WHEN LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT WILL SPREAD EWD OVERNIGHT...WITH THE SEVERE THREAT LIKELY TO GRADUALLY DECREASE AS INSTABILITY DIMINISHES. ..THOMPSON.. 10/28/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Oct 28 17:24:07 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 28 Oct 2004 12:24:07 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200410281725.i9SHPDu27327@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 281721 SWODY2 SPC AC 281720 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1220 PM CDT THU OCT 28 2004 VALID 291200Z - 301200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ENE ANJ 15 E MBS 20 NW ARB 35 ENE FWA 15 ENE IND 65 N LIT 35 ENE PGO 10 W MLC 15 SW TUL 10 SSE MKC 20 ENE DSM 25 NNE FOD 20 NNE OTG 55 NW RWF 15 ENE AXN 25 ENE DLH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MSS 20 SE MSV 35 SSE CXY 10 S DAN 25 E CHS ...CONT... 45 SE JAX 10 W CTY 25 ENE AQQ 10 SE TOI 40 S BNA 30 E MKL 55 NNE GLH 50 NNW HOU 15 WNW LRD ...CONT... 75 SSW P07 35 WSW ABI 30 N FSI 30 WSW TOP 30 SSE OMA 40 ESE OFK ANW 20 SW PHP 40 SE Y22 30 SSE GFK 15 E INL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES SWD THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... VIGOROUS...MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN THIS MORNING IS FORECAST TO TRANSLATE ENEWD THROUGH THE CNTRL ROCKIES AND INTO THE MID MO VALLEY BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW INITIALLY OVER N-CNTRL NEB/S-CNTRL SD WILL DEEPEN OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY AS IT CONCURRENTLY DEVELOPS NEWD ALONG RETREATING WARM FRONT INTO SRN MN BY EARLY EVENING. MEANWHILE...TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS AND WILL LIKELY EXTEND FROM SURFACE LOW SWD THROUGH CNTRL IA AND THEN SWWD INTO NERN OK BY 30/00Z. ...UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES SWD THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY... MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES WARM FRONT SLOWLY LIFTING NWD THROUGH THE MID MO/MS RIVER VALLEYS WITH 60 F DEWPOINTS NOW AS FAR N AS N-CNTRL/NERN NEB. INCREASING HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND ACCOMPANYING 70-80 KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK WILL EXPEDITE NWD ADVECTION OF THIS MOISTURE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/UPPER MS VALLEY TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WHEN COUPLED WITH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ON CYCLONIC SIDE OF JET AXIS...IT APPEARS THAT STRONGEST AFTERNOON INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP FROM VICINITY OF WARM FRONT OVER PORTIONS OF SERN MN/WI SWD INTO PORTIONS OF ERN IA AND NRN IL WHERE MLCAPES MAY APPROACH 1000-2000 J/KG. FARTHER S...WEAKER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LARGELY LIMIT MLCAPES TO 500-1000 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF MO INTO ERN OK/AR DESPITE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. INCREASED LARGE-SCALE FORCING ACROSS WARM SECTOR IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE/INTENSITY BY LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FROM SURFACE LOW ENEWD ALONG WARM FRONT. HERE...VERY FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN 50-60 KTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. ADDITIONALLY...POTENTIAL FOR A FEW TORNADOES WILL ALSO EXIST WITHIN THIS REGION OF LOCALLY ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND MOIST LOW-LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS. ONCE FINER-SCALE DETAILS OF EVENT BECOME MORE CLEAR...A CATEGORICAL UPGRADE TO MODERATE RISK MAY BE REQUIRED ACROSS CURRENT HIGHER PROBABILITY AREA. ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL ALSO LIKELY OCCUR BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SWD ALONG TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO PORTIONS OF ERN OK/AR AS SUSTAINED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SLOWLY ERODES CAP. PRIMARY CONVECTIVE MODE APPEARS BE LINEAR GIVEN DEEP FORCING ALONG FRONT. HOWEVER...STRONG LOW AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OBSERVED IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS FRIDAY EVENING SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. ..MEAD.. 10/28/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Oct 29 07:29:40 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 29 Oct 2004 02:29:40 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200410290730.i9T7Uhu17564@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 290728 SWODY2 SPC AC 290727 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0227 AM CDT FRI OCT 29 2004 VALID 301200Z - 311200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WNW HVR 50 NNE 3DU 50 WSW MSO 25 N ALW 50 W YKM 30 NW AST. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 WNW MRF 10 SSE GDP 15 NW HOB 50 WSW LBB 35 SW CDS 30 WNW ADM 55 NE LIT 35 NW HOP 15 WSW BMG 10 ESE SBN 35 WSW MBL 70 ENE MQT ...CONT... 35 S ACY 10 NE GSO 30 NNW AHN 30 SSE MEI 20 SE 7R4. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... A DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH...NOW OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...WILL EJECT ENEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MID/UPPER MS VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT...AND CONTINUE ENEWD OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY BY TOMORROW NIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP ENEWD IN ADVANCE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH...FROM UPPER MI TOWARD SRN QUEBEC. FARTHER W...A BROAD NRN STREAM TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY OVER THE NRN ROCKIES...WHILE A SEPARATE SRN STREAM WAVE APPROACHES THE BIG BEND AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE PRIMARY THUNDERSTORM THREAT AREAS WILL BE IN ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT ACROSS THE ERN GREAT LAKES AREA DURING THE DAY...AND ACROSS CENTRAL/N TX LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH A DEVELOPING WAA PATTERN. ...ERN GREAT LAKES/UPPER OH VALLEY REGION... BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S SHOULD SPREAD NEWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY/PA/NY IN ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT...WHILE STRONG WIND FIELDS AND ASSOCIATED VERTICAL SPEED SHEAR ALSO ACCOMPANY THE WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER...POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL TEND TO LIMIT WARM SECTOR INSTABILITY. ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS...BUT THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT MAY TEND TO BE LIMITED BY WEAK INSTABILITY. ..THOMPSON.. 10/29/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Oct 29 16:32:29 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 29 Oct 2004 11:32:29 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200410291633.i9TGXVu22253@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 291627 SWODY2 SPC AC 291626 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1126 AM CDT FRI OCT 29 2004 VALID 301200Z - 311200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW SYR 15 E PSB 35 E MGW 40 WNW EKN 10 ENE UNI 25 SSE MFD 20 WNW CLE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WNW HVR 50 NNE 3DU 50 WSW MSO 25 N ALW 50 W YKM 30 NW AST. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S ACY 10 NE GSO 30 NNW AHN 30 SSE MEI 20 SE 7R4 ...CONT... 25 SE ELP 25 N GDP 30 WNW HOB 30 WSW LBB 25 SE CDS 30 WNW ADM 55 NE LIT 35 NW HOP 15 WSW BMG 10 ESE SBN 35 WSW MBL 70 ENE MQT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE UPPER OH VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... VIGOROUS...MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS WILL EJECT ENEWD FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY SATURDAY MORNING INTO SERN ONTARIO BY SATURDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...LOW ATTENDANT TO THIS SYSTEM INITIALLY OVER NRN WI/SRN L.S. WILL UNDERGO OCCLUSION AND SLOWLY FILL WHILE DEVELOPING NEWD INTO WRN QUEBEC. TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH RAPIDLY EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY AND INTO THE NERN STATES DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SRN EXTENSION OF THIS BOUNDARY...BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS CNTRL TX WILL BEGIN TO RETREAT NWD AS A WARM FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS NRN MEXICO. ...UPPER OH VALLEY... A MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF COLD FRONT SWEEPING EWD ACROSS THE REGION. DESPITE THIS MOISTURE...CONVECTIVELY PROCESSED LAPSE RATES WILL TEND TO LIMIT AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR. SLIGHTLY STRONGER INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP WITHIN REGION OF STRONGER LARGE-SCALE FORCING DOWNSTREAM FROM EJECTING UPPER LOW OVER THE UPPER OH VALLEY WHERE MLCAPES MAY APPROACH 1000 J/KG. EXPECT TSTMS TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY THROUGH THE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON WITHIN DEEPLY FORCED REGION ALONG SURGING COLD FRONT FROM THE MIDDLE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY EWD INTO PORTIONS OF WRN/CNTRL NY/PA. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF 75-85 KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK ACCOMPANYING UPPER LOW ACROSS THE OH VALLEY...MORE THAN SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SPEED SHEAR WILL EXIST TO SUPPORT BOWING/LEWP STRUCTURES EMBEDDED WITHIN LARGER LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM. EXPECT GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER THREAT /LIKELY IN THE FORM OF DAMAGING WINDS/ TO BE ACROSS THE UPPER OH VALLEY WHERE SLIGHTLY GREATER INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT MORE VIGOROUS UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT. ...TX... POTENTIAL FOR AN ELEVATED STRONG TSTM OR TWO IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITHIN DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME DOWNSTREAM FROM UPPER SYSTEM TRANSLATING ACROSS NRN MEXICO. THOUGH SOME SMALL HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST CELLS...IT APPEARS THE WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT ANY SEVERE THREAT. ..MEAD.. 10/29/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Oct 30 07:35:02 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 30 Oct 2004 02:35:02 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200410300736.i9U7a3V18365@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 300731 SWODY2 SPC AC 300730 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0230 AM CDT SAT OCT 30 2004 VALID 311200Z - 011200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE ELP 35 NE ROW 35 NNW AMA 35 ESE SLN 45 N SZL 25 NE BLV 20 WSW BWG 20 NNE CHA 30 NNE ATL 25 NE CSG SEM 25 S MEI 35 ESE MCB 35 SSW HUM. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... THE MID LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE UPPER MS VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE E OF NEW ENGLAND EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WHILE ANOTHER TROUGH AMPLIFIES SEWD OVER THE SRN ROCKIES. AS THE TROUGH DIGS OVER THE SRN ROCKIES...A SRN STREAM WAVE /NOW JUST OFF THE SRN CA AND NRN BAJA COASTS/ WILL EJECT NEWD FROM NRN MEXICO TO NW TX AND OK. WEAK CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED ACROSS N TX/OK IN ADVANCE OF THE EJECTING TROUGH FROM MEXICO...ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH EXITING NEW ENGLAND. THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. ...TX AREA... WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BY EARLY SUNDAY IN A BAND NEAR AND JUST N OF RETREATING WARM FRONT ACROSS N TX AND SRN OK WITHIN A MOIST WAA REGIME. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY WHILE SPREADING NEWD TOWARD MO. LAPSE RATES IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS TX WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STEEP...AND THE EFFECTS OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL TEND TO LIMIT INSTABILITY SOMEWHAT. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT A FEW EMBEDDED STORMS WITH SUPERCELL AND/OR BOW ECHO STRUCTURES MAY OCCUR WITHIN THE LARGER CONVECTIVE BAND FROM SW/CENTRAL TX NEWD TO SE OK...BUT THAT THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT WILL BE TOO MARGINAL TO JUSTIFY A SLIGHT RISK THIS FAR IN ADVANCE. IF A CORRIDOR OF SOMEWHAT GREATER INSTABILITY CAN BE IDENTIFIED ALONG THE FRINGE OF THE CONVECTIVE BAND...THEN SOME PART OF THE 5% SEVERE AREA MAY BE UPGRADED TO SLIGHT RISK IN LATER UPDATES. ..THOMPSON.. 10/30/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Oct 30 16:16:49 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 30 Oct 2004 11:16:49 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200410301617.i9UGHlV06889@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 301610 SWODY2 SPC AC 301609 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1109 AM CDT SAT OCT 30 2004 VALID 311200Z - 011200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE ELP 35 NE ROW 35 NNW AMA 35 ESE SLN 45 SW IRK 45 NNW SLO 30 ESE OWB 20 NNE CHA 30 NNE ATL 25 NE CSG SEM 25 S MEI 35 ESE MCB 35 SSW HUM. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... PHASING OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC NW AND OFF THE SRN CA COAST IS FORECAST ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT WITH FULL-LATITUDE TROUGH EVOLVING OVER THE ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS REGION. AT THE SURFACE...BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE PACIFIC NW INTO THE PLAINS AND NWD RETURN OF MODIFIED MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS NWD ACROSS THE SRN/CNTRL LOW PLAINS WILL ENHANCE BAROCLINICITY ALONG FRONTAL ZONE FROM WRN TX INTO THE MID MS VALLEY REGION BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. ...TX/OK... CURRENT MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS /I.E. DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S/ IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF CNTRL/SRN TX. THIS MOISTURE COUPLED WITH A NOCTURNAL STRENGTHENING OF LLJ WILL LEAD TO A FAIRLY LARGE AREA OF TSTMS WITHIN WAA REGIME ALONG/N OF RETREATING WARM FRONT INITIALLY FROM PORTIONS OF SWRN TX ENEWD ACROSS N TX/OK INTO AR. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WHILE GRADUALLY MOVING/DEVELOPING NEWD TOWARD THE MID MS VALLEY. EXPECT ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR LATER IN THE DAY OVER PORTIONS OF SWRN/W-CNTRL TX NEWD INTO SRN OK AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING MID-LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD WARM SECTOR. DESPITE STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL WIND FIELDS DOWNSTREAM FROM TROUGH AXIS AND THE ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...IT APPEARS THAT WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AND THE RESULTANT NEGATIVE IMPACT ON MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL TEND TO LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT. THE POTENTIAL FOR CORRIDORS OF STRONGER INSTABILITY AND INHERENTLY HIGHER SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY WELL DEVELOP. HOWEVER...ATTM THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY...WARRANTING ONLY LOW PROBABILITIES. SOME PORTION OF BROAD 5% AREA MAY WELL NEED TO BE UPGRADED ON SUBSEQUENT DAY 1 OUTLOOKS. ..MEAD.. 10/30/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Oct 31 08:20:47 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 31 Oct 2004 03:20:47 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200410310821.i9V8LiV23441@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 310813 SWODY2 SPC AC 310812 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0212 AM CST SUN OCT 31 2004 VALID 011200Z - 021200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WNW LRD 50 SE BWD 40 SW PRX 20 E HOT 60 W MEM 25 SE MEM 40 S CBM 40 ESE GPT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE P07 50 W SJT 60 ESE LBB 45 WNW CSM 35 ENE CNU 20 SSE UIN 40 E LAF 25 NNW CMH 40 WSW UNI 60 NNW CSV 30 ESE HSV 10 SE MGM 20 SW PFN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE ERN HALF OF TX TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY.... ...SYNOPSIS... A MID LEVEL TROUGH IS DIGGING SEWD OVER THE NRN GREAT BASIN EARLY THIS MORNING...AND THIS TROUGH WILL REACH CENTRAL TX AND OK BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. IN RESPONSE TO THIS AMPLIFYING TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES...A SEPARATE WAVE NOW OVER NRN BAJA WILL EJECT NEWD OVER TX/OK AND LOSE AMPLITUDE BY EARLY DAY 2. AT THE SURFACE...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS N TX AND SRN AR WILL MOVE NWD AS A WARM FRONT TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY BY EARLY TOMORROW...WITH WEAK CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY IN ADVANCE OF THE WEAKENING SRN STREAM WAVE. A SEPARATE LEE CYCLONE ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL DEVELOP EWD ACROSS OK/AR IN ADVANCE OF THE NRN STREAM TROUGH. THE SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND CYCLONES WILL FOCUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. ...E TX TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY... A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING MONDAY MORNING FROM CENTRAL/E TX NNEWD ACROSS ERN OK TO CENTRAL MO. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD PERSIST AND SPREAD EWD ACROSS AR/LA/WRN TN/MS BY EARLY TUESDAY. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR NOW ACROSS TX ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STEEP...AND WILL LIKELY BE REDUCED FURTHER BY WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING. STILL...WEAK TO MODERATE SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED IMMEDIATELY E OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE BAND...WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS WILL BE NEAR 70 F. THE MODEST INSTABILITY AND MOIST PROFILES...IN COMBINATION WITH 50-60 KT SSWLY MID LEVEL FLOW...SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND/OR BOW ECHO STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A FEW DAMAGING GUSTS AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE OF TORNADOES. ..THOMPSON.. 10/31/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Oct 31 16:34:25 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 31 Oct 2004 11:34:25 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200410311635.i9VGZKV26502@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 311627 SWODY2 SPC AC 311626 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1026 AM CST SUN OCT 31 2004 VALID 011200Z - 021200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WNW LRD 30 N BWD 30 W SPS 30 SSW OKC 60 W MEM 25 SE MEM 40 S CBM 40 ESE GPT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE P07 50 W SJT 35 E LBB 65 ENE AMA 35 ENE CNU 20 SSE UIN 40 E LAF 25 NNW CMH 40 WSW UNI 60 NNW CSV 30 ESE HSV 10 SE MGM 20 SW PFN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS EWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... COLD ADVECTION ON UPSTREAM SIDE OF EVOLVING MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN W WILL RESULT IN AMPLIFICATION OF THIS FEATURE AND EVENTUAL EVOLUTION OF A CLOSED LOW OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS ON MONDAY. MEANWHILE...SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING INTO WRN SONORA MEXICO WILL TEND TO DE-AMPLIFY AS IT EJECTS ENEWD ACROSS TX INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MS VALLEY AHEAD OF INTENSIFYING UPSTREAM SYSTEM. AT THE SURFACE...PRIMARY SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP FROM WRN TX EWD ACROSS N TX DURING THE DAY WHILE TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHES SEWD. SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT WILL ALSO LIKELY OCCUR FARTHER TO THE NE ALONG RETREATING WARM FRONT IN ADVANCE OF DE-AMPLIFYING...LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ...SRN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY... CLUSTERS OF TSTMS OR A QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING INITIALLY FROM PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN TX NWD ACROSS ERN OK AND WRN AR. THIS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINTAINED EWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...LARGELY AIDED BY LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF LEAD DISTURBANCE. WHILE LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN POOR OWING TO CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING/PROCESSING...THE PRESENCE OF A MOIST BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS /DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S/ WILL CONTRIBUTE TO POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WHERE MLCAPES WILL APPROACH 1000-1500 J/KG. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF 40-50 KTS AND 0-1 KM SRH OF 100-200 M2/S2 ACROSS PRE-CONVECTIVE WARM SECTOR SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRIMARILY DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES. ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP INVOF OF SURFACE LOW NEAR THE RED RIVER AND SWD ALONG TRAILING COLD FRONT ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AS 70-80 KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK BEGINS TO EMERGE FROM BASE OF EVOLVING UPPER LOW. HERE...RATHER COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES OF -15 TO -18 C AT 500 MB WILL OVERSPREAD AN AXIS OF 60S SURFACE DEWPOINTS...EFFECTIVELY CONTRIBUTING TO STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. THOUGH MID AND HIGH-LEVEL WIND FIELDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME INCREASINGLY MERIDIONAL WITH TIME...BACKED LOW-LEVEL FLOW INVOF SURFACE LOW WILL RESULT IN FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED TORNADO. ..MEAD.. 10/31/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Oct 2 06:51:12 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 02 Oct 2004 01:51:12 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200410020652.i926qot06697@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 020650 SWODY2 SPC AC 020649 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0149 AM CDT SAT OCT 02 2004 VALID 031200Z - 041200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SW DMN 50 SW SOW 35 E SGU 25 NNW U24 40 E EVW 30 E RKS 15 SSW RWL 15 SSW LAR 25 S GCK 30 E P28 10 ESE PNC 35 W MKO 10 ENE DUA 25 E SEP DRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE GPT 15 E MGM ATL 20 SW AVL 15 E GSO 35 NNW HSE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DAB 45 N PIE. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... PRONOUNCED SPLIT FLOW ACROSS CONUS WITH A STRONG NRN BRANCH TROUGH ROTATING EWD ACROSS GREAT LAKES. A WEAKER SRN BRANCH EXTENDS FROM CA EWD ACROSS SRN STATES WITH A FLAT S/WV TROUGH FORECASTED TO MOVE EWD ACROSS SRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING SEWD ACROSS CENTRAL U.S. STALLS BY SUNDAY ACROSS SERN STATES AND EXTENDS WWD ALONG GULF COAST TO S TX. REINFORCING SURGE OF POLAR AIR DROPS SEWD FROM CANADA INTO NCENTRAL U.S. WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT BY SUNDAY NIGHT REACHING FROM ERN GREAT LAKES SWWD INTO CENTRAL PLAINS. ON SUN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS SRN HI PLAINS AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT...WHICH COUPLED WITH S/WV ENERGY IN SRN BRANCH WILL CONTINUE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WITH THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER HIGHER TERRAIN SRN ROCKIES WITH AFTERNOON HEATING. WARM ADVECTION AND MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED TO SPREAD EWD ACROSS SRN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ASSOCIATED THREAT OF PRIMARILY ELEVATED CONVECTION . LIMITED LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY PRECLUDES A RISK OF SEVERE STORMS. ..HALES.. 10/02/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Oct 2 17:32:55 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 02 Oct 2004 12:32:55 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200410021734.i92HYTt30342@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 021732 SWODY2 SPC AC 021730 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1230 PM CDT SAT OCT 02 2004 VALID 031200Z - 041200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E DUG 35 SW GCN 10 W SGU 35 W U24 40 E EVW 30 E RKS 15 SSW RWL 15 SSW LAR 25 S GCK 30 E P28 10 ESE PNC 35 W MKO 10 ENE DUA 25 E SEP DRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE ORL 25 S AGR 60 NE EYW ...CONT... 20 SSE GPT 15 E MGM ATL 20 SW AVL 15 E GSO 25 ENE ECG. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... SPLIT MID-UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL PERSIST INTO DAY 2 ACROSS THE WRN STATES...AS BLOCKING UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS INLAND FROM THE ERN PACIFIC. LARGE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO NEW ENGLAND WILL BE REINFORCED ON SUNDAY BY ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY MOVING INTO NRN ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN ATTM PER WV IMAGERY...AS IT TRACKS SEWD TOWARD THE NRN GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE...SEVERAL LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL TRAVERSE EWD WITHIN THE SRN STREAM...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM SRN CA TO THE SRN ATLANTIC STATES. AT THE SURFACE...INITIAL EARLY FALL COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD AWAY FROM MUCH OF THE ERN SEABOARD ON SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD REMAIN OVER PARTS OF SC/SRN GA AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THIS REGION INDUCES A WEAK LEE TROUGH/SURFACE LOW OVER WRN SC/ERN GA. THE WRN EXTENT OF THIS COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE NRN GULF TO SRN TX. MEANWHILE...A SECOND SURGE OF COLD AIR WILL SPREAD SWD INTO THE CENTRAL STATES IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO OK AND ERN NM BY 12Z MONDAY. ...SRN NM TO SRN PLAINS... SSELY LOW-LEVEL RETURN FLOW ALONG THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND ON THE WRN PERIPHERY OF A WEAKENING SURFACE HIGH WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO SPREAD NWD INITIALLY ACROSS NM DURING THE DAY AND THEN ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES SHOULD RESULT IN AN AREA OF MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG/ OVER SWRN NM/FAR W TX. WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING TOWARD THE SRN ROCKIES COMBINED WITH SURFACE HEATING WILL ALLOW FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM THE FOUR CORNERS SEWD TO FAR W TX. 30-35 KT OF WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ATOP SSELY LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL RESULT IN STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR STORM ORGANIZATION. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SUSTAINED ACTIVITY AND A SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE OVER SWRN NM INTO FAR W TX WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE THE STRONGEST. WAA REGIME AND CONTINUED MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS WILL SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SPREADING/DEVELOPING EWD FROM NM INTO WRN TX AND POTENTIALLY WRN OK SUNDAY NIGHT. ...SC/GA... RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S/ BENEATH MODEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES /6.5 TO 7 C/KM/ WILL SUPPORT POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY IF SURFACE HEATING IS STRONG ENOUGH. MODELS SUGGEST THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF SC/SRN-SERN GA SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH. HOWEVER...WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE GIVEN DEEP WLY FLOW WOULD ARGUE AGAINST WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED STORMS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT...HOWEVER...IF STORMS DO DEVELOP FOR A FEW STRONG AND/OR SEVERE STORMS...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN 5 PERCENT. ..PETERS.. 10/02/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Oct 3 06:41:54 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 03 Oct 2004 01:41:54 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200410030643.i936hQt24118@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 030641 SWODY2 SPC AC 030640 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0140 AM CDT SUN OCT 03 2004 VALID 041200Z - 051200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW ELP 20 N ONM 25 E ABQ 10 SE TCC 15 W LBB 25 NW BGS 25 SE P07. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 E DUG 30 NNE SAD 25 SE INW 35 N FLG 40 S P38 25 SSW ELY 65 NNW ENV 40 ESE BYI 30 E BPI 40 SE RWL 30 N 4FC 15 WSW LIC 25 NW LAA 45 NNE EHA 50 E GAG 35 E OKC 40 NNE PRX 40 NNW GGG 40 NNW HOU 25 SSE LRD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W AQQ 25 NE JAX. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS OF SRN HIGH PLAINS AND SRN ROCKIES... ...SRN HIGH PLAINS AND SRN ROCKIES... PRONOUNCED SPLIT FLOW CONUS WITH SRN BRANCH FROM SWRN U.S. EWD ACROSS GULF COAST STATES. S/WV TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING EWD SRN CA INTO AZ WILL WEAKEN AS IT CROSSES SRN ROCKIES TONIGHT AS A STRONGER IMPULSE UPSTREAM ENTERS AZ MON AFTERNOON. THE FRONTAL ZONE E/W ACROSS CENTRAL TX WILL STALL AS NEW SURGE OF POLAR AIR MOVES SWD THRU CENTRAL PLAINS INTO OK WWD TO ERN NM MON. SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW RIO GRANDE VALLEY WILL PREVAIL THRU THE NEXT TWO DAYS TRANSPORTING GULF MOISTURE INTO SWRN TX AND SRN NM...PRIMARILY E OF MTNS. 30-40KT OF MID/UPR FLOW IN SRN STREAM ACROSS SRN NM INTO WRN TX WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED TSTM DEVELOPMENT. WITH 50S DEWPOINTS SPREADING NWWD INTO SRN AND ERN NM AND HIGHER MOISTURE INTO SWRN TX...ALONG WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7-8C/KM...AIR MASS EXPECTED TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE. WITH AFTERNOON HEATING MLCAPES WILL RANGE FROM 1500 J/KG VICINITY HIGHER TERRAIN SRN NM FAR SWRN TX TO GENERALLY LESS THAN 1000 J/KG SRN HIGH PLAINS TO S OF FRONTAL ZONE. SUFFICIENT SHEAR...SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL...FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BY MON AFTERNOON...WITH POSSIBLE ROTATING STORMS. PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT EXPECTED TO BE LARGE HAIL GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MARGINAL FOR A WIND DAMAGE/TORNADO THREAT. ..HALES.. 10/03/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Oct 3 17:14:24 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 03 Oct 2004 12:14:24 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200410031715.i93HFst26748@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 031713 SWODY2 SPC AC 031712 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1212 PM CDT SUN OCT 03 2004 VALID 041200Z - 051200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 W ELP 20 N ONM ABQ 10 W TCC 35 NW PVW 45 N BGS 30 SE P07. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 E DUG 30 NNE SAD 25 SE INW 35 N FLG 40 S P38 25 SSW ELY 65 NNW ENV 40 ESE BYI 30 E BPI 40 SE RWL 30 N 4FC 15 WSW LIC 25 NW LAA 45 NNE EHA 50 E GAG 35 E OKC 35 NE TXK 20 SSW POE 15 WSW GLS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W AQQ 25 NE JAX ...CONT... 35 NNE SSI 45 NNE SAV 15 W FLO 15 N GSB 25 SE ORF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN HIGH PLAINS AND SRN ROCKIES... ...SYNOPSIS... SPLIT FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WRN STATES ON MONDAY WITH AN EWD SHIFT IN THE BLOCKING UPPER RIDGE TOWARD THE ROCKIES...AS STRONG HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NERN PACIFIC WITH THE APPROACH OF A STRONG TROUGH. SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION ATTM PER WV IMAGERY WILL WEAKEN MONDAY AS IT MOVES EWD ACROSS TX...AND A STRONGER UPSTREAM TROUGH...CURRENTLY OFF THE CA COAST...WILL APPROACH AZ. ...SRN HIGH PLAINS AND SRN ROCKIES... SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WITHIN THE SRN STREAM WILL REMAIN THE FOCI FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON DAY 2 AS THEY MOVE EWD ATOP A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER EXTENDING FROM THE SRN ROCKIES TO TX. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION IS EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS NRN TX...AS A STRONG SURFACE HIGH BUILDS SEWD ACROSS THE MS VALLEY. SSELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ALONG THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND CENTRAL/SRN TX WILL MAINTAIN SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS WITH MID-UPPER 60S ACROSS SRN/CENTRAL TX. ONE OR TWO CLUSTER OF STORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD OVER WRN/CENTRAL TX AND POTENTIALLY SRN OK WITHIN WAA REGIME ATOP COOL/STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS. THIS ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST AS IT MOVES ESEWD ACROSS CENTRAL TX MONDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON...BUT IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY AS THE LLJ WEAKENS. SURFACE HEATING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SRN NM/FAR SWRN TX COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS THIS REGION...SIMILAR TO VALUES EXPECTED IN THE DAY 1 PERIOD. SOMEWHAT WEAKER LAPSE RATES FARTHER EAST ACROSS WRN TX AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM MORNING STORMS SHOULD RESULT IN A LESS INSTABILITY OVER THIS AREA. NONETHELESS...25-30 KT OF WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ATOP SELY LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR STORM ORGANIZATION WITH ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. INSTABILITY/SHEAR VALUES WILL SUPPORT ROTATING STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREAT. STRENGTHENING LLJ ACROSS WRN TX INTO SWRN OK MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUATION OF THUNDERSTORMS...WITH ACTIVITY LIKELY INCREASING IN COVERAGE AS IT DEVELOPS/SPREADS EWD ACROSS NRN TX/RED RIVER VALLEY. ..PETERS.. 10/03/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Oct 4 06:43:17 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 04 Oct 2004 01:43:17 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200410040644.i946ijt19159@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 040642 SWODY2 SPC AC 040640 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0140 AM CDT MON OCT 04 2004 VALID 051200Z - 061200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW DMN 45 WNW TCS 35 WSW ABQ 25 ESE LVS 25 SSW DHT 10 SSW AMA 20 SE PVW 30 NNW BGS 30 SE MAF 15 S P07. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 E DUG 35 N SAD 20 NW SOW 15 NE GCN 50 ESE SGU 15 WSW MLF 30 S DPG 25 WSW OGD 20 SW RKS 45 NE CAG 20 NE FCL 45 W GLD 30 ENE GCK 35 WSW P28 50 SSW END 40 W OKC 35 ESE SPS 35 SE DAL 10 ENE BPT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W CTY 15 E JAX. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SRN ROCKIES AND SRN HIGH PLAINS... ...SRN ROCKIES/SRN HIGH PLAINS... LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE TO PATTERN OVER SRN ROCKIES/SRN PLAINS AS WEAK IMPULSES CONTINUE TO TRACK ACROSS AREA IN SRN BRANCH OF WESTERLIES. MODELS SUGGEST THAT SOME INCREASE IN AMPLITUDE COULD OCCUR OVER SRN ROCKIES ON TUE. WITH THE LARGE HIGH OVER THE ERN U.S... A SELY FLOW OF MOIST GULF AIR WILL PERSIST FROM WRN TX INTO NM. WRN EXTENT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN E OF NM/AZ BORDER WITH GREATER AMOUNTS TO E OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. WITH HEATING AIR MASS WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE DURING THE AFTERNOON SUPPORTING DEVELOPMENT OF ACTIVE CONVECTION. WITH LAPSE RATES TO NEAR 8C/KM AND 30-35 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR...A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY WITH LARGE HAIL PRIMARY THREAT. SLY LOW LEVEL JET FORECASTED TO INCREASE TO 30-40 KT TX PANHANDLE BY EVENING WHICH WILL ENHANCE WARM ADVECTION AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT. AFTERNOON STORMS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF NM COULD THEN EVOLVE INTO MORE OF AN MCS AS THEY DEVELOP EWD INTO THE LOW LEVEL JET. ..HALES.. 10/04/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Oct 4 16:58:25 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 04 Oct 2004 11:58:25 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200410041659.i94Gxpt23678@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 041657 SWODY2 SPC AC 041656 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1156 AM CDT MON OCT 04 2004 VALID 051200Z - 061200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSW DMN 75 NNW SVC 50 SW GNT 10 ESE ABQ 25 SW TCC 15 NE CVS 25 WSW LBB 45 NW BGS 25 S MAF P07. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W CTY 15 E JAX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E DUG 45 NNE SAD 25 ESE INW 30 ENE GCN 50 ESE SGU 15 WSW MLF 30 S DPG 25 WSW OGD 20 SW RKS 45 NE CAG 20 NE FCL 45 W GLD 30 ENE GCK 35 WSW P28 50 SSW END 40 W OKC 35 ESE SPS 35 SE DAL 10 ENE BPT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SRN NM AND FAR W TX... ...SYNOPSIS... A SLOW MOVING TROUGH EVOLVING ACROSS SRN CA TODAY WILL GRADUALLY MOVE INTO THE DESERTS EARLY TUESDAY AND THE SRN HIGH PLAINS BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. A LEAD IMPULSE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS NM AND FAR W TX TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE...A FRONT IS LIKELY TO BE LOCATED ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...AUGMENTED BY SEVERAL DAYS OF SRN HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION. THE FRONT AND APPROACHING IMPULSE WILL FOCUS THE SEVERE POTENTIAL ON TUESDAY. ...SRN NM AND W TX... CONVECTION COULD BE ONGOING ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS FROM ERN NM INTO FAR W TX EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. COOL OUTFLOW WILL LIKELY AUGMENT THE ELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW ALL THE WAY TO THE DIVIDE... ADVECTING/MAINTAINING UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS. THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BENEATH STEEP MID-TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS SRN NM AND W TX THROUGH TUESDAY. STRONGEST SIGNAL FOR SEVERE TSTMS APPEARS TO BE ALONG THE DIVIDE FROM SRN NM INTO CHIHUAHUA TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHERE HEATING WILL OCCUR. SBCAPES NEAR 1000 J/KG AND APPROACHING JET STREAK WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR TSTMS TO INITIATE ALONG THE SRN NM MOUNTAINS BY MID-AFTERNOON. FARTHER EAST...DEBRIS CLOUDS/CONVECTION SHOULD MAINTAIN A COOL BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO W TX. VERTICAL SHEAR IN THE LOWEST 6 KM OF 40-45 KTS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. HOWEVER...OVER A SMALL PART OF SRN NM AND EXTREME W TX WHERE LCLS/SRH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENTLY LOW/HIGH RESPECTIVELY...A TORNADO OR TWO IS POSSIBLE. ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE/DEVELOP EWD TOWARD THE PLAINS/W TX DURING THE EVENING AS THE 50 KT JET STREAK EMERGES ONTO THE PLAINS. IT IS NOT CERTAIN IF ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS AS FAR NE AS ECNTRL NM/WRN TX PNHDL TUESDAY NIGHT. THE ERN/NRN PARTS OF THE SLGT RISK AREA WILL REMAIN CONDITIONAL. THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO WILL BE FOR THE STRONGEST TSTMS TO DEVELOP/MOVE SEWD INTO FAR SW TX WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE HIGHER AND MASS CONVERGENCE WILL BE STRONGER. ..RACY.. 10/04/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Oct 5 06:29:56 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 05 Oct 2004 01:29:56 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200410050631.i956VLt09461@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 050629 SWODY2 SPC AC 050628 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0128 AM CDT TUE OCT 05 2004 VALID 061200Z - 071200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W ELP 60 S GNT 40 W FMN 40 NNE CEZ ASE 45 ENE FCL 30 SSE FSD 30 NE RST 40 NW CGX 35 NW SPI 15 WNW COU 40 NNE JLN 30 NNW FSM 20 W TXK 25 E POE 30 SE HUM. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... TROUGH OVER SRN ROCKIES SHIFTS SLOWLY EWD INTO HIGH PLAINS BY END OF FORECAST PERIOD. LARGE SURFACE HIGH ERN U.S. WILL MAINTAIN A SLY FLOW OF GULF MOISTURE FROM SRN PLAINS NEWD TO MS RIVER VALLEY. INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATEST UNDER COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGH ERN NM INTO SWRN TX WITH REDUCED INSTABILITY FURTHER E WHERE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND WEAKER LAPSE RATES WILL PREVAIL. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE COMMON BY AFTERNOON FROM THE TROUGH AXIS EWD INTO CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS GIVEN THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING NWD ON THE 25-35 KT LOW LEVEL JET. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MOST ANYWHERE FROM THE TROUGH AXIS EWD INTO WRN OK/TX. HOWEVER LACK OF COVERAGE AND SOME QUESTION ON THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER SUPPORT PRECLUDES OUTLOOKING A RISK AREA ATTM. ..HALES.. 10/05/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Oct 5 16:58:12 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 05 Oct 2004 11:58:12 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200410051659.i95GxZt24997@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 051657 SWODY2 SPC AC 051656 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1156 AM CDT TUE OCT 05 2004 VALID 061200Z - 071200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W ELP 40 SSW GUP 40 SW CEZ 40 NNE CEZ ASE 45 ENE FCL 30 SSE FSD 30 NE RST 40 NW CGX 35 NW SPI 15 WNW COU 40 NNE JLN 30 NNW FSM 20 W TXK 25 E POE 30 SE HUM. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER LOW VCNTY FOUR-CORNERS AREA TODAY IS EXPECTED TO TURN NE AND BECOME AN OPEN WAVE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. SRN PORTION OF THE TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS/ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE...CYCLOGENESIS WILL TAKE PLACE OVER ERN CO. FRONT SITUATED FROM SERN TX TO ERN NM WILL LIFT NEWD INTO NCNTRL TX-WRN KS LINE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHILE A LEE TROUGH STRENGTHENS SOUTH OF THE LOW THROUGH CNTRL NM. ...CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS... MODELS DIVERGE ON EVOLUTION OF APPROACHING TROUGH. WHILE BOTH MODELS AGREE THAT THE STRONGER PORTION OF THE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...GFS KEEPS SRN PARTS OF THE TROUGH IN NM LONGER THAN THE ETA. THIS SCENARIO MAY VERY WELL BE CORRECT. MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ANOTHER IMPULSE BEGINNING TO DIG SEWD INTO CNTRL CA ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH...LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO A SLOWER AND STRONGER SRN PORTION OF THE TROUGH AS THE GFS SUGGESTS. SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL MAINTAIN/ADVECT UPPER 50S-LOWER 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS ACROSS SWRN TX/ERN NM NWD INTO WRN KS/EXTREME ERN CO THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. STEEPEST LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY EXIST ALONG WRN PORTION OF THIS MOIST AXIS...CONTRIBUTING TO THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS FAR W TX AND ERN NM. INSTABILITY VALUES WILL BE LOWER FARTHER N AND E ACROSS THE ADJACENT CNTRL/SRN PLAINS. STRONGEST H5 HEIGHT FALLS WILL LIKELY OCCUR FROM CO NEWD INTO NEB/WRN KS. IN WAKE OF MORNING CONVECTION...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS ERN CO AND EXPAND NEWD DURING THE EVENING AS LARGE SCALE FORCING SPREADS NEWD. STORMS ARE LIKELY TO EVOLVE INTO LOOSELY ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS AND COULD PRODUCE ISOLD DAMAGING WIND/HAIL...THOUGH WEAK INSTABILITY WILL MITIGATE WIDESPREAD SEVERE TSTMS. TSTMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FARTHER S ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF ERN NM AND FAR W TX WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHERE HEATING IS APT TO BE STRONGEST. THE STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL HAVE IMPACTS ON MAGNITUDE AND LOCATION OF THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY. THE UNCERTAINTY THAT EXISTS MAKES PLACING A CATEGORICAL SLGT RISK DIFFICULT. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES ATTM. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT TSTMS WILL EVOLVE INTO ONE OR MORE MCS OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY AND MOVE EWD ONTO THE SRN PLAINS AS FAR EAST AS CNTRL OK AND NWRN TX WITH ATTENDANT DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL. FINALLY...FARTHER W...COLD POCKET ALOFT MAY CONTRIBUTE TO HIGH BASED TSTMS ACROSS NWRN NM THAT MAY GIVE ISOLD HAIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ..RACY.. 10/05/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Oct 6 07:04:54 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 06 Oct 2004 02:04:54 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200410060706.i9676Et20030@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 060700 SWODY2 SPC AC 060658 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0158 AM CDT WED OCT 06 2004 VALID 071200Z - 081200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 90 S MRF 25 S INK 35 NNW AMA 25 N DDC 10 ESE HSI 20 SSW OTG 45 WSW LNR 30 S MLI 15 WSW VIH HRO 25 WSW HOT 20 NNE BVE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SSE FMY PBI. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... TROUGH OVER SWRN U.S. PAST FEW DAYS WILL SHIFT EWD INTO CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING. SRN PORTION OF TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NRN MEXICO TOWARD SRN TX WILL INTERACT WITH THE INCREASING AREA OF TROPICAL CONVECTION IN WRN GULF OF MEXICO WITH MODELS ALL INDICATING SURFACE DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING NEAR THE SRN TX COAST BY THU NIGHT. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH REMAINING OVER ERN U.S. SLY FLOW OF MOIST GULF AIR WILL CONTINUE INTO SRN PLAINS AND SPREAD NEWD AHEAD OF WEAKENING TROUGH ACROSS LOWER MO VALLEY TOWARD WRN GREAT LAKES. WHILE CONSIDERABLE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MOIST PLUME AHEAD OF TROUGH...SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE LESS THAN EXPECTED TODAY AS INSTABILITY WEAKENS ALONG WITH THE UPPER SUPPORT PROVIDED BY THE TROUGH. AN EXCEPTION COULD BE VICINITY TX COAST LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AS TROPICAL AIR MASS NOW OVER SWRN GULF MOVES NWD AND LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW. LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING STORMS TX COAST AND IF SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS QUICKER THAN NOW FORECAST A THREAT WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES THU NIGHT. FURTHER N ACROSS TX INTO OK...ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON AMOUNT OF SURFACE HEATING THAT CAN OCCUR IN THE VERY MOIST AIR MASS...AS UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED DEEP LAYER SHEAR GRADUALLY WEAKEN. ..HALES.. 10/06/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Oct 6 17:14:19 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 06 Oct 2004 12:14:19 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200410061715.i96HFdt01992@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 061713 SWODY2 SPC AC 061712 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1212 PM CDT WED OCT 06 2004 VALID 071200Z - 081200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SSE FMY PBI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WNW MRF 20 SE CNM 30 N PVW 25 N DDC 10 ESE HSI 20 SSW OTG 45 WSW LNR 30 S MLI 15 WSW VIH HRO 25 WSW HOT 20 NNE BVE. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...UPPER TX COAST/SWRN LA... SRN PORTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH NOW OVER THE SRN ROCKIES...WILL BE MOVING EWD INTO TX LATE THURSDAY. ASSOCIATED H5 HEIGHT FALLS WILL LIKELY INDUCE A WEAK SURFACE LOW/COASTAL TROUGH ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE UPPER TX/SWRN LA COAST BY EARLY FRIDAY. BACKING LOW-MIDLEVEL FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH WILL ADVECT RICH MOISTURE NWD FROM THE WRN GULF BASIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO CONTRIBUTING TO INCREASING INSTABILITY...PARTICULARLY IN THE COASTAL PLAINS. 12Z ETA SUGGESTS THAT THE COASTAL TROUGH/LOW WILL BE STRONGER AND FARTHER N THAN THE 09Z SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLE SUGGESTS. GIVEN THAT THE MAIN PORTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL EJECT N OF THE GULF COASTAL AREA...QUESTIONS REMAIN ON HOW STRONG CYCLOGENESIS AND RESULTANT LOW-MIDLEVEL FLOW WILL BE. AS A RESULT OF STRONGER FEATURES...THE 12Z ETA FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SIGNIFICANT DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE LOWEST 3KM. ISOLD TORNADOES WOULD BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THIS SCENARIO. INHERITED OUTLOOK INTRODUCED 5 PERCENT SEVERE PROBABILITIES AND GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES HIGHLIGHTED ABOVE...THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION THIS EARLY IN THE FORECAST CYCLE IS TO MAINTAIN SUB-CATEGORICAL SLGT RISK. FUTURE OUTLOOKS MAY NEED TO ADDRESS AN UPGRADE IF THE SURFACE LOW AND VERTICAL SHEAR LOOK TO BE AS STRONG AS 12Z ETA SUGGESTS. ...SRN PLAINS... THERE WILL LIKELY SEVERAL TSTM CLUSTERS IN PROGRESS ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AS THE UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS E TX NWD TO THE OZARKS AS THE LOW-MIDLEVEL FLOW BACKS AND TAPS INTO GULF MOISTURE THROUGH THURSDAY. IT IS LIKELY THAT CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTION WILL KEEP INSOLATION AT A PREMIUM ACROSS A LARGE AREA ON THURSDAY. STRONGEST BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING WILL LIKELY OCCUR ACROSS WRN/CNTRL OK SWWD INTO CNTRL/SWRN TX ON WRN PERIPHERY OF INCREASING TROPICAL PLUME. RESIDUAL SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S BENEATH H5 TEMPERATURES NEAR MINUS 12C WILL CONTRIBUTE TO POSSIBLE TSTM DEVELOPMENT IN THESE AREAS BY MID-AFTERNOON THURSDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN WEAKENING NATURE OF THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MIDLEVEL WIND FIELDS...THE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL ALSO WEAKEN. AS SUCH...THE PROBABILITY OF ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS WILL BE LOWER...BUT SUFFICIENT FOR A LOW RISK OF LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. ..RACY.. 10/06/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Oct 7 06:28:43 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 07 Oct 2004 01:28:43 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200410070630.i976U3t30996@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 070627 SWODY2 SPC AC 070626 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0126 AM CDT THU OCT 07 2004 VALID 081200Z - 091200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW P07 55 S BGS 65 NNW ABI 10 W FSI 40 ENE OKC 10 ENE MKC 45 NW DBQ 30 N MSN 35 S MKE 55 ESE MMO 25 W MVN 25 N POF 30 WNW ARG 60 N LIT PBF 30 SW GWO 45 WSW SEM 35 WSW DHN 20 ESE PFN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE BLI 25 E SEA 35 WNW DLS 40 ENE EUG 25 N 4BK. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... A RATHER BROAD WEAK TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER SRN PLAINS AS A VIGOROUS SYSTEM MOVES ONSHORE PAC NW FRI NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER NWRN GULF OF MEXICO AS TROPICAL AIR MASS MOVES NWD FROM WRN GULF ACROSS ERN TX AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY. WHILE MODELS ALL KEEP SURFACE LOW CENTER OFFSHORE ERN TX/LA COAST THRU THE PERIOD...LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE INCREASING AS 850MB WINDS OF 30-35KT DEVELOP INLAND SERN TX/SWRN LA BY EVENING. WITH A TROPICAL ENVIRONMENT AND POTENTIALLY SFC-1KM SHEAR OF 20-25 KT...WILL CONTINUE A LOW PROBABILITY OF SEVERE NEAR THE SERN TX/LA COAST...PARTICULARLY LATER PORTION OF THE PERIOD WHEN SURFACE LOW WILL BE CLOSEST TO THE COAST. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WITH BRIEF TORNADOES. RISK IS VERY CONDITIONAL AND DEPENDENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE PROGGED SURFACE LOW. ..HALES.. 10/07/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Oct 7 16:44:59 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 07 Oct 2004 11:44:59 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200410071646.i97GkEt00409@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 071643 SWODY2 SPC AC 071642 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1142 AM CDT THU OCT 07 2004 VALID 081200Z - 091200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW MRF 10 N INK 70 S CDS 25 NE LTS 30 SSW PNC 55 NNE SZL 35 ENE DBQ 20 NNE MSN 20 NW IMT 70 WNW ANJ 40 ESE ANJ 65 ENE APN 45 ENE FNT 25 NW DNV 25 W MVN 25 N POF 30 WNW ARG 60 N LIT PBF 30 SW GWO 45 WSW SEM 35 WSW DHN 20 ESE PFN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE BLI 25 E SEA 35 WNW DLS 40 ENE EUG 25 N 4BK. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... HIGH AMPLITUDE...SPLIT UPPER FLOW REGIME EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. THE NRN PORTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS STATES NOW IS EXPECTED TO PHASE WITH THE NRN STREAM TONIGHT AND QUICKLY WEAKEN. UPSTREAM IMPULSE IN THE POLAR WLYS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TODAY WILL AMPLIFY AND DIG SEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER LOW DROPS INTO THE PAC NW. MEANWHILE..IN THE SRN STREAM...SRN PORTION OF THE PLAINS TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE ACROSS TX...EVENTUALLY CLOSING OFF AS AN UPPER LOW BY THE WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE PLAINS WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD. NRN PORTIONS WILL STRENGTHEN AND ACCELERATE EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BY EARLY SATURDAY WHILE SRN PORTIONS REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY FROM MO TO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. A LOW/COASTAL TROUGH WILL MOVE/DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COAST. ...S LA AND EXTREME ERN PORTIONS OF THE UPPER TX COASTAL PLAINS... 12Z ETA CONTINUES TO LOOK TOO STRONG WITH THE MASS FIELDS OVER THE WRN GULF BASIN AND IS THE STRONGEST OF MODELS COMPARED TO 12Z GFS AND THE 09Z SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. WHILE WEAK CYCLOGENESIS/ STRENGTHENING OF THE COASTAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED...WILL SIDE WITH THE WEAKER MODEL SOLUTIONS ATTM. THE WEAK LOW/TROUGH WILL MOVE CLOSE TO THE SABINE RIVER VLY AND SWRN LA LATE THURSDAY. TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT NWD AS LOW/MIDLEVEL FLOW BACKS ON ERN SIDES OF UPSTREAM TX UPPER TROUGH. SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE 70S AND INCREASED MOIST/WARM ADVECTION WILL SUPPORT DEEP MOIST CONVECTION OVER A LARGE PART OF THE WRN GULF AREA. LOW LEVEL VEERING AND MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGEST THAT THE THREAT FOR AN ISOLD TORNADO WILL EXIST...ESPECIALLY IF THE 12Z ETA IS CORRECT. AN ANTICIPATED WEAKER SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED WIND FIELDS...HOWEVER...SUGGEST THAT THE SEVERE RISKS WILL BE LOW AND SUB-CATEGORICAL SLGT RISK ATTM. ...GREAT LAKES REGION... STRONG RETURN FLOW WILL ADVECT MID-UPPER 50S DEW POINTS NEWD AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH/COLD FRONT THE NEXT 24-HRS. A BAND OF CONVECTION/CLOUDS IS LIKELY TO PRECEDE THE SYSTEM IN THE STRONG WARM CONVEYER AND SHOULD LIMIT INSOLATION AS THE ENHANCED UPPER SUPPORT ARRIVES LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ATTM...SEVERE TSTMS DO NOT SEEM LIKELY...BUT IF INSTABILITY ULTIMATELY IS STRONGER...LATER OUTLOOKS MAY NEED TO ADDRESS LOW PROBABILITIES OF SEVERE FROM ERN WI INTO PARTS OF MI. ..RACY.. 10/07/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Oct 8 07:25:09 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 08 Oct 2004 02:25:09 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200410080726.i987QMt09710@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 080723 SWODY2 SPC AC 080722 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0222 AM CDT FRI OCT 08 2004 VALID 091200Z - 101200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW CTY 15 ESE JAX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 E BLI 30 NNW DLS 40 W RDM 40 NNW 4BK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSE LCH 40 NW POE 10 WNW GGG DAL 35 NNW BWD 60 WSW SJT 25 SE INK 35 NNW HOB 45 SW AMA 25 E BVO 25 ENE ARG 40 ESE MKL 25 WSW MSL 25 NW TCL 35 SW SEM 35 S TLH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE PBG 15 ENE SYR 30 ENE BFD 30 SSE FDY 30 W TOL 50 E APN. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... MID/UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE DURING THE PERIOD...WITH STRONG TROUGHS AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONTS MOVING INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST. ALONG THE PAC NW COAST AND NEAR/JUST EAST OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...THERMODYNAMICS MAY FAVOR SHALLOW MOIST CONVECTION AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY IS NOT FORECAST TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THESE SYSTEMS ELSEWHERE. EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY WHERE A WEAK UPPER LOW WILL LIKELY DESTABILIZE THE AIR MASS SUFFICIENTLY FOR A THREAT OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR AHEAD OF ACCOMPANYING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERS...FROM ERN TX/LA INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COAST. ...SERN TX INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD A VERY MOIST AND WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS E-SE OF H85 LOW CENTER FORECAST TO BE OVER LA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THOUGH WEAK LAPSE RATES WILL GREATLY HAMPER POTENTIAL INSTABILITY...HIGH VALUES OF BOUNDARY LAYER THETA-E WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR WIDESPREAD MOIST CONVECTION WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN PLUME OF VERY MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. STRENGTH OF SHEAR IN THE LOWEST FEW KILOMETERS...ALONG WITH LOW LCLS...SUGGEST AT LEAST LOW PROBABILITIES OF TORNADOES/WIND DAMAGE ARE WARRANTED. ..EVANS.. 10/08/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Oct 8 16:36:45 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 08 Oct 2004 11:36:45 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200410081637.i98Gbut06015@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 081636 SWODY2 SPC AC 081634 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1134 AM CDT FRI OCT 08 2004 VALID 091200Z - 101200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW CTY 15 ESE JAX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 E BLI 30 NNW DLS 40 W RDM 40 NNW 4BK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSE LCH 30 SW ESF 20 ESE GGG DAL 35 NNW BWD 60 WSW SJT 25 SE INK 35 NNW HOB 45 SW AMA 25 NNW END 25 ENE ARG 40 ESE MKL 25 WSW MSL 25 NW TCL 35 SW SEM 35 S TLH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE PBG 15 ENE SYR 30 ENE BFD 30 SSE FDY 30 W TOL 50 E APN. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SRN PLAINS WILL EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER TX ON SATURDAY. THE LOW WILL REMAIN STATIONARY THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND...BEFORE ENERGY DROPPING SWD ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA WAVE DISLODGES IT ON SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK LOW...NOW OVER THE WRN GULF BASIN...IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO SRN LA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AND MAY BE THE FOCUS FOR ISOLD SEVERE WEATHER. ...LOWER MS VLY... 12Z ETA CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE WRN GULF BASIN WILL MOVE TO VCNTY KLCH AND THEN TO NEAR KSHV BY EARLY SUNDAY. THE EURO AND 09Z SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLES...HOWEVER...MAINTAIN PARENT LOW OFFSHORE...OR PERHAPS JUST INLAND SE LA DURING THE PERIOD. THE FARTHER SOUTH/WEAKER SOLUTIONS APPEAR CONSISTENT AND MORE REASONABLE ATTM. WARM/MOIST ADVECTION WILL MAINTAIN WAVES OF CONVECTION DOWNSTREAM FROM THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE LOWER MS VLY THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. RAIN FALLING INTO PARTIALLY MODIFIED CP AIR MASS ACROSS MS/AL WILL STRENGTHEN BAROCLINIC ZONE...LIKELY SUPPRESSING MORE TROPICAL BOUNDARY LAYER TO AREAS FROM SRN LA SWD. AS THE LOW APPROACHES SHORE OR MOVES JUST INLAND...MORE ROBUST UPDRAFTS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OFFSHORE...MOVE NWD AND INTERACT WITH THE NW-SE ORIENTED WARM FRONT. LOW LCLS COUPLED WITH MODEST LOW LEVEL TURNING VCNTY THE FRONT COULD BE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLD TORNADOES. BUT...THE CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY IN THE OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE REFLECTED BY LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES ATTM. ..RACY.. 10/08/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Oct 9 07:14:50 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 09 Oct 2004 02:14:50 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200410090716.i997G0t06450@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 090712 SWODY2 SPC AC 090712 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0212 AM CDT SAT OCT 09 2004 VALID 101200Z - 111200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW GLS 40 SSW LFK 25 N ACT 60 NE BGS 25 SE AMA 35 WNW GAG 20 S ICT 10 ENE SGF 20 SE POF 45 SE MKL 10 WNW LGC 45 WNW SAV 30 SE CHS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE DUG 45 WNW SAD 45 S FLG 35 ESE IGM 50 WNW EED 55 S TPH 60 ESE U31 15 ESE SLC 15 ESE CAG 10 W COS 50 WSW TCC 55 SE ELP. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...CENTRAL GULF COAST AND LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY... T.S. MATTHEW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE A SLOW NEWD MOTION AND UNDERGO LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY BEFORE TURNING MORE NWD LATER SUNDAY INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION /REF LATEST GUIDANCE FROM NHC FOR FURTHER INFORMATION/. APPEARS ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY AND THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AS THIS SYSTEM NEARS THE COAST AND MOVES INLAND. MODERATE TO STRONG SHEAR IN THE LOWEST FEW KILOMETERS WILL THEREFORE SUPPORT AT LEAST A LOW PROBABILITY THREAT OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO. ...GREAT BASIN... STRONG ENERGY WILL CONTINUE DIGGING SEWD TOWARDS THE SWRN STATES SUNDAY...AND EVOLVE INTO AN UPPER LOW OVER SRN NV BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. APPEARS MODEST HEATING WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AND SUPPORT STEEP LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE SRN GREAT BASIN AND THE 4-CORNERS...AS MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES OF -16C TO -18C OVERSPREAD THE REGION. MID LEVEL MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION FROM PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE 4-CORNERS REGION/SRN ROCKIES...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING STRONGER CELLS WILL BE CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ..EVANS.. 10/09/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Oct 9 17:24:05 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 09 Oct 2004 12:24:05 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200410091725.i99HPDt14617@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 091722 SWODY2 SPC AC 091721 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1221 PM CDT SAT OCT 09 2004 VALID 101200Z - 111200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE LCH 20 WSW POE 15 SW GGG 15 WNW FTW 70 N ABI 30 E PVW 30 SSE AMA 55 SSE EHA 30 NNE LBL 55 NNW P28 35 NNW SGF 25 SE POF HSV 45 ENE MCN 15 S CHS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S DUG 45 WNW SAD 45 S FLG 30 ESE IGM 45 NW EED 45 SSW DRA 55 S TPH 60 ESE U31 15 ESE SLC 15 ESE CAG 10 WSW COS 20 SSE RTN 20 WNW ROW 60 SE ELP. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...ERN LA/MS/SW AL... TROPICAL DEPRESSION MATTHEW IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO AND WILL CONTINUE NWD REACHING THE COAST OF LA BY DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY. CONVECTIVE BANDS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE PRESENT IN THE COASTAL AREAS OF SE LA AND SRN MS EARLY IN THE PERIOD. THE RAINBANDS OF MATTHEW SHOULD GRADUALLY SPREAD NWD AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND SHOULD BE WELL INLAND BY MIDDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM SHOW LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES MOST FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES SUNDAY ACROSS ERN MS AND SWRN AL. THE 18Z FORECAST SOUNDING FOR MERIDIAN MS SHOWS STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WITH OVER 30 KT OF 0-1 KM SHEAR. AS CONVECTIVE BANDS SPREAD NWD...SOME CELLS SHOULD ROTATE AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT MAY MATERIALIZE. HOWEVER...THE THREAT SHOULD BE MARGINAL CONSIDERING THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CONVECTION IN THE COASTAL AREAS. ANY TORNADO THREAT SHOULD MOVE NWD ACROSS CNTRL MS AND WRN AL DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IF INSTABILITY ENDS UP BEING HIGHER THAN FORECAST BY THE MODELS AHEAD OF THE CONVECTIVE BANDS...AN UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK WOULD BECOME NECESSARY IN LATER OUTLOOKS. ....SRN UT/NRN AR... A HIGH-AMPLITUDE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WRN STATES WILL PROVIDE STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ON DAY 2. STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE MTN AREAS AND ALONG A COLD FRONT MOVING SWD THROUGH THE REGION ACROSS SRN NV...SRN UT AND NWRN AR. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE MARGINAL FOR SUPERCELLS. HOWEVER...VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS COMBINED WITH THE STRONG ASCENT AND 500 MB TEMPS OF -12 TO -16 C SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL HAIL THREAT MAINLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. ..BROYLES.. 10/09/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Oct 10 07:23:44 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 10 Oct 2004 02:23:44 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200410100724.i9A7Ont00615@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 100722 SWODY2 SPC AC 100721 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0221 AM CDT SUN OCT 10 2004 VALID 111200Z - 121200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S DMN 40 WSW SVC 60 E PHX 25 NNE BLH 60 SSW DRA 60 NNW P38 10 WNW PUC 10 WNW GUC 30 W TAD 25 S TCC 40 WNW HOB 60 S MRF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE HUM 25 SSW MCB 30 NNW HEZ 35 NNE SHV 40 WSW PGO 15 W TUL 10 NNE CNU 35 NNE SZL 25 N SLO 30 NW TYS 15 NE AHN 30 ENE CHS ...CONT... 35 SSE VRB 55 SSE FMY. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... SLOW MOVING UPPER LOWS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE SWRN U.S...THE NORTHEAST AND THE CENTRAL STATES MONDAY...AS STRONGER WLYS ARE DISPLACED NWD ACROSS CANADA. THIS WILL MAINTAIN SRN STREAM OVER THE SWRN DESERTS/SRN HIGH PLAINS AND THE GULF COAST REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SPARSE OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS...EXCEPT AHEAD OF SLOW MOVING CENTRAL U.S. SYSTEM WITH AXIS OF ABUNDANT MOISTURE EXTENDING FROM THE LOWER MS RIVER/TN RIVER VALLEYS EWD INTO THE SOUTHEAST. ...FAR SWRN TX INTO THE SWRN STATES... SHEAR PROFILES WILL STRENGTHEN CONSIDERABLY OVER SWRN TX AND NM DURING THE AFTERNOON MONDAY...AS SELY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND WSWLY MID/UPPER LEVEL WINDS STRENGTHEN. IN ADDITION...AXIS OF RELATIVELY COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL SHIFT EWD INTO WRN NM AND SUPPORT RATHER STEEP LAPSE RATES AS THE BOUNDARY HEATS DURING THE DAY. THOUGH LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY DRY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT WEAK INSTABILITY BY THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON. GIVEN STRENGTH OF SHEAR AND STEEP LAPSE RATES...ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH ATTENDANT LOW PROBABILITY SEVERE THREAT INTO THE EVENING. ...LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES... MODELS IN AGREEMENT IN MAINTAINING WEAK LAPSE RATES AND DEEP MOIST THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ACROSS THIS REGION MONDAY...AS WSWLY FLOW ALOFT REMAINS MODEST /I.E. 20-30 KT/. THOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES WILL LIKELY BE MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED CLUSTERS OF STORMS...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST OVERALL WEAK INSTABILITY AND SMALL LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY LIMIT SEVERE THREAT. ..EVANS.. 10/10/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Oct 10 17:19:38 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 10 Oct 2004 12:19:38 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200410101720.i9AHKgt21054@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 101717 SWODY2 SPC AC 101716 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1216 PM CDT SUN OCT 10 2004 VALID 111200Z - 121200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW DMN 10 W SAD 25 NNE PHX 10 ESE EED 35 S LAS 45 ENE DRA 35 WNW U24 45 SSE SLC 35 S VEL 25 NNE GUC RTN 15 W CVS 25 WNW INK 30 NW MRF 50 W MRF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE VRB 55 SSE FMY ...CONT... 30 ESE 7R4 40 SW MLU 25 NNW TXK 30 NNW MLC 25 WSW BVO 15 NW CNU 15 NW SZL 45 NW STL 10 W OWB 10 NE CSV 30 SSE GSP 25 ENE CHS. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SWRN STATES... A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE WRN STATES AND CUTOFF TONIGHT ACROSS AZ. THIS FEATURE WILL SPREAD STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ACROSS NERN AZ AND NM ON DAY 2 PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. SFC HEATING WILL AID CONVECTION AS IT DEVELOPS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND MOVE EWD INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON. SFC DEWPOINTS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 30S AND 40S F ACROSS THE REGION AND THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGH-BASED STORMS. THE RELATIVELY DRY AIR WILL MINIMIZE THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL LIKELY KEEP ANY SEVERE THREAT MARGINAL. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR 21Z MONDAY IN WRN NM SHOW PRONOUNCED INVERTED-V PROFILES. THIS COMBINED WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WOULD FAVOR A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS NEAR PEAK HEATING. ...SERN US... THE REMNANTS OF MATTHEW WILL MOVE SLOWLY NWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY MONDAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS SFC HEATING INCREASES INSTABILITY BY MIDDAY MONDAY. HOWEVER...MARGINAL LAPSE RATES AND RELATIVELY WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THE REGION. ..BROYLES.. 10/10/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Oct 11 07:24:24 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 11 Oct 2004 02:24:24 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200410110725.i9B7PQt10880@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 110723 SWODY2 SPC AC 110722 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0222 AM CDT MON OCT 11 2004 VALID 121200Z - 131200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SE DUG 40 WNW SAD 55 SW PRC 60 ESE DAG LGB ...CONT... 25 NNW SMX 55 WNW DRA 10 ENE MLF GJT 40 SSW PUB 40 WNW TCC 30 S ROW 70 SSW GDP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W PFN 25 S SEM 55 SW MEM 20 WSW POF 15 SSW EVV 35 SSE LOZ 30 E CAE 15 SSE CRE. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE TUESDAY AS STRONG NRN STREAM SYSTEM AMPLIFIES ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA AND THE NRN PLAINS. THIS WILL FINALLY SHIFT PERSISTENT UPPER LOW EWD AWAY FROM THE PLAINS STATES AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST...WITH SWRN U.S. LOW CENTER RETROGRADING WWD TO OFF THE CA COAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. ...SOUTHEAST... WLY FLOW ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE SOUTHEAST AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL JET OVERSPREAD THE LOWER/MID MS RIVER VALLEY. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE LARGE INVERSION LAYER BETWEEN ROUGHLY 800 AND 650 MB ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL GREATLY LIMIT BOTH AVAILABLE INSTABILITY AND OVERALL CONVECTIVE THREAT...DESPITE PRESENCE OF RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS. THOUGH INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL LIKELY SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...OVERALL SEVERE THREAT APPEARS RATHER LIMITED ATTM. ...SRN ROCKIES INTO SRN CA... APPEARS POCKET OF RELATIVELY COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THIS REGION AS UPPER LOW SHIFTS STEADILY WWD. GIVEN AFTERNOON HEATING...LAPSE RATES AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE APPEAR SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. ..EVANS.. 10/11/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Oct 11 17:29:14 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 11 Oct 2004 12:29:14 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200410111730.i9BHUEt22704@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 111728 SWODY2 SPC AC 111727 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1227 PM CDT MON OCT 11 2004 VALID 121200Z - 131200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE CEW SEM CBM 50 SW MEM ARG POF CGI OWB LOZ 40 SSE LOZ TYS 30 E CHA 60 NW AHN 10 WNW GSP CRE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE DUG 40 NNE TUS PHX PRC GCN 65 E GCN GUP GNT SAF LVS 50 WSW CVS INK 60 SSE MAF HDO ALI 50 N MFE 55 S LRD. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... DISTINCTIVELY SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO CHARACTERIZE MID-UPPER LEVELS ACROSS CONUS DAY-2. CYCLONE NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER OK IS FCST TO BECOME INCREASINGLY VERTICALLY STACKED AS IT DRIFTS EWD ACROSS OZARKS THROUGH MOST OF PERIOD. THIS LOW SHOULD BEGIN TO OPEN AND ACCELERATE TOWARD LOWER OH VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO AMPLIFYING NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SEWD ACROSS MN/DAKOTAS. ASSOCIATED WEAK SFC FRONT/TROUGH -- NOW ANALYZED FROM SRN AR LOW SEWD OVER MS COAST -- IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT EWD ACROSS WRN/MID TN...NRN MS...AL AND WRN GA THROUGH PERIOD. FARTHER W...BINARY MID-UPPER CYCLONE EVIDENT OVER SWRN CONUS -- WITH CENTERS OVER AZ AND NRN SIERRAS. AZ CENTER SHOULD WEAKEN INTO LOW-AMPLITUDE PERTURBATION AND EJECT ENEWD INTO CYCLONIC FLOW STREAM AROUND OK/OZARKS LOW. MEANWHILE WRN PORTION SHOULD REMAIN DISCRETE CYCLONE AND RETROGRADE SWWD OFFSHORE SRN CA. ...SERN CONUS... SOME LARGE SCALE DESTABILIZATION EXPECTED OVER SRN APPALACHIANS/PIEDMONT REGION AND TN VALLEY...ASSOCIATED WITH COMBINATION OF DIFFERENTIAL MIDLEVEL CVA AND AGEOSTROPHIC FORCING BENEATH LEFT EXIT REGION OF CYCLONICALLY CURVED MID-UPPER JET MAX. IN LOW LEVELS...CONTINUED FETCH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH WARM SECTOR WILL SUPPORT SPORADIC CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS THROUGHOUT PERIOD. ..FROM NEAR DEEP-LAYER LOW SEWD TOWARD FL. SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY LIMITED BY WEAKNESS OF DEEP-LAYER LAPSE RATES -- BARELY ABOVE MOIST ADIABATIC IN MOST AREAS EXCEPT FOR NEAR-SFC LAYERS AMIDST CLOUD BREAKS. MLCAPES 500-1000 J/KG WILL BE POSSIBLE LOCALLY. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL FLOW IS FCST TO REMAIN RATHER WEAK -- GENERALLY AOB 15 KT FROM SFC-850 MB -- 40-50 KT DEEP-LAYER FLOW IS EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL/SRN PORTIONS GA/AL BENEATH MIDLEVEL JET. ALONG AND E OF SFC TROUGH -- WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BE SOMEWHAT BACKED -- THIS LEADS TO 40-50 KT 0-6 KM AGL SHEARS AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME STORMS TO ROTATE. THEREFORE LOW-END SEVERE PROBABILITIES ARE WARRANTED...BUT THREAT FOR ORGANIZED EVENT STILL APPEARS TOO CONDITIONAL/MARGINAL FOR CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK ATTM. ..EDWARDS.. 10/11/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Oct 12 06:49:12 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 12 Oct 2004 01:49:12 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200410120650.i9C6oBt12581@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 120648 SWODY2 SPC AC 120647 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0147 AM CDT TUE OCT 12 2004 VALID 131200Z - 141200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S SAV 30 NW AGS 10 ESE AND 35 WSW GSO 25 ESE ORF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW SSI 45 WSW AGS 15 S CHA 25 NW BWG 30 SSW LAF 35 WNW FWA 15 SSE DTW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE ELP 55 SW INK 45 NE P07 45 E COT PSX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNE ROC 20 NW AVP 10 NW JFK. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE CAROLINAS INTO TIDEWATER REGION... ...SYNOPSIS... LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED SOUTH OF HUDSON BAY UPPER LOW WEDNESDAY...WITH STRONG SYSTEM DIGGING SSEWD INTO THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS. AS THIS OCCURS...UPPER LOW NOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL EJECT EAST AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD AS A NEGATIVELY-TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC DURING THE PERIOD. ...CAROLINAS INTO THE SRN MID ATLANTIC... THOUGH PRIMARY SURFACE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS NEWD FROM THE OH RIVER VALLEY INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...INCREASING SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ALLOW WARM FRONT/COASTAL BOUNDARY TO PUSH INLAND OVER THE CAROLINAS DURING THE AFTERNOON. SECONDARY AREA OF CYCLOGENESIS SHOULD ACCOMPANY EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH...LIKELY OCCURRING ALONG TRIPLE POINT OF E-W ORIENTED WARM FRONT AND N-S ORIENTED SURFACE TROUGH EXPECTED TO PUSH ENEWD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. ETA IS MOST PRONOUNCED WITH THIS SECONDARY LOW CENTER...DEVELOPING A SURFACE LOW OVER UPSTATE SC BY 21Z WHICH IS LIFTED NEWD INTO THE SRN MID ATLANTIC COAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. AS WARM FRONT/COASTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOPS NWD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS DURING THE DAY...INFLUX OF UPPER 60F/LOWER 70F SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL SPREAD WELL INLAND IN ITS WAKE. THOUGH CONVECTION/ PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY PRECEED EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND OVERSPREAD THIS REGION EARLY IN THE DAY...SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS NOSE OF STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL JET SHIFTS INTO THE SOUTHEAST. PRESENCE OF CONVECTION EARLY IN THE DAY COMPLICATES SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL GIVEN UNCERTAINTY ABOUT AVAILABLE INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CONDITIONS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS SHOULD EVEN MARGINAL INSTABILITY DEVELOP...WITH STRONG LOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND SHALLOW LCL HEIGHTS. ALSO...ETA IS NOW FORECASTING SBCAPES FROM 1000-2000 J/KG WITHIN WARM SECTOR DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON. SUPERCELLS MAY EITHER DEVELOP WITHIN BROADER AREA OF CONVECTION...OR IN ITS WAKE WHERE CONVERGENCE AND BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE PRONOUNCED NEAR TRIPLE POINT AND INVOF WARM FRONT. SHOULD A SECONDARY LOW CENTER OCCUR...PRESSURE FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN A THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES/WIND DAMAGE AFTER DARK AS IT LIFTS NNEWD INTO THE SRN CHESAPEAKE. ..EVANS.. 10/12/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Oct 12 17:35:27 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 12 Oct 2004 12:35:27 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200410121736.i9CHaOt15725@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 121734 SWODY2 SPC AC 121733 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1233 PM CDT TUE OCT 12 2004 VALID 131200Z - 141200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E SAV 35 E AGS 40 N CAE 30 NNW SOP RWI HSE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ELP GDP BWD TPL CLL GLS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE SAV AGS AHN 55 WNW CHA OWB DAY CLE FKL DUJ PSB ACY. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS ERN CAROLINAS... ...SYNOPSIS... DAY-2 WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY RAPIDLY EVOLVING UPPER AIR PATTERN AS MEAN TROUGH BEGINS TAKING SHAPE OVER ERN NORTH AMERICA...AND LOW NOW MOVING OFFSHORE SRN CA RETROGRADES AND BECOMES CUT OFF. SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER CANADIAN PLAINS -- IS FCST TO DIG SEWD AND STRENGTHEN CONSIDERABLY...EVOLVING INTO PROGRESSIVE AND NEARLY CLOSED LOW OVER ERN OK BY END OF PERIOD. AS THIS OCCURS...ASSOCIATED BELT OF SHARPLY CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT SHOULD CONTAIN 70-80 KT 500 MB SPEED MAX AND 250 MB JET LIKELY EXCEEDING 120 KT. MEANWHILE...MID/UPPER LOW PRESENTLY OVER OZARKS REGION IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO OPEN SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND MOVE FROM LOWER OH VALLEY TO VICINITY WV/VA/TIDEWATER AREA BY 14/12Z. AT SFC...FRONTAL-WAVE LOW SHOULD DEVELOP OVER SC AHEAD OF ERN CONUS MIDLEVEL TROUGH...ALONG PIEDMONT BAROCLINIC ZONE...AND MOVE NEWD TOWARD NERN NC/SERN VA. PROGRESSIVE AND STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT SHOULD SURGE SEWD ACROSS SRN PLAINS AND INTO EXTREME NWRN GULF BY END OF PERIOD. ...CAROLINAS/SERN VA REGION... SCATTERED TSTMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF COASTAL PLAIN AND TIDEWATER REGION FROM SERN VA TO SC...AND INLAND ONTO PORTIONS CAROLINAS PIEDMONT. STRONGEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND JUXTAPOSITION OF FAVORABLE INSTABILITY/SHEAR SHOULD BE BETWEEN 13/18Z AND 14/03Z OVER CATEGORICAL SLGT RISK AREA -- BEHIND INITIAL ROUND OF CONVECTION PROGGED BY ETA/SPECTRAL. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS REGION WITH APCH OF OH VALLEY TROUGH ALOFT...AND ISALLOBARIC SFC RESPONSE TO PIEDMONT FRONTAL-WAVE CYCLOGENESIS. RESULTING BACKED FLOW AHEAD OF SFC LOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO 0-1 KM SRH 100-200 J/KG...AND 0-6 KM AGL SHEARS 40-50 KT. DIURNAL HEATING BEHIND EARLY CLOUDS/PRECIP SHOULD OVERCOME MODEST LAPSE RATES ALOFT TO YIELD 1000-1500 J/KG AFTERNOON MLCAPE IN NARROW CORRIDOR AHEAD OF SFC CONVERGENCE AXIS. BOTH SUPERCELLULAR AND BOW ECHO MODES ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY...DAMAGING GUSTS EXPECTED ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR A FEW TORNADOES. SHORTER OPPORTUNITY FOR DESTABILIZATION MAKES OUTLOOK MORE CONDITIONAL WITH NEWD EXTENT INTO SERN VA. ...S TX... ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS POSSIBLE DIURNALLY ALONG/AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT AS COOLING ALOFT...LOW LEVEL THETAE ADVECTION...AND SFC DIABATIC HEATING COMBINE TO WEAKEN CAP AND RAISE MLCAPES TO 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE. AIR MASS WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY INCREASING LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ABOVE BOUNDARY LAYER...INCREASING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...BUT WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW. THIS RESULTS IN RELATIVELY SMALL FCST HODOGRAPHS -- EXCEPT FOR EXTREMELY DEVIANT STORM MOTIONS -- AND 40-50 KT SHEAR THROUGH 0-6 KM AGL LAYER. MAIN CONCERN IS EXTENT OF AIR MASS RECOVERY GIVEN UPPER 50S TO MID 60S F SFC DEW POINTS AND NLY FLOW COMPONENTS NOW EVIDENT OVER AREA...HOWEVER TRAJECTORY LENGTHS FOR RICHER MOISTURE OVER NW GULF WILL BE RATHER SHORT. TSTMS ALSO SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON BOTH SIDES OF SFC COLD FRONT...ACROSS S TX...AS INTENSIFYING UPPER TROUGH APCHS. HAIL MAY OCCUR FROM STRONGER CELLS BOTH AHEAD OF AND BEHIND FRONT...AND ISOLATED STRONG-SEVERE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS NOT BEEN STABILIZED TOO MUCH BY CAA. SOME OF THIS AREA MAY REQUIRE CATEGORICAL SEVERE OUTLOOK. ..EDWARDS.. 10/12/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Oct 13 07:19:28 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 13 Oct 2004 02:19:28 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200410130720.i9D7KMt03217@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 130717 SWODY2 SPC AC 130716 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0216 AM CDT WED OCT 13 2004 VALID 141200Z - 151200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE DAB 20 SSE SRQ ...CONT... 15 W PNS 20 N CEW 30 SSE SAV. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE 7R4 25 NW MCB 45 E ELD 40 WSW MEM 20 SSE BNA 45 NE TYS 25 SW ILM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E INL 40 SSW HIB 30 NNW STC 35 SSE FAR 55 N DVL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 N ORF 20 NNW BWI 30 SW AVP 35 SW PSF BOS. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PART OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SYNOPSIS... PRIMARY IMPETUS FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN TIED TO STRONG UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FEATURES EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE SOUTHEAST. ETA HAS BEEN TRENDING TOWARDS A SLOWER/STRONGER SYSTEM EVOLVING OVER THE SRN PLAINS/LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY...SIMILAR TO THE GFS WHICH IS THE PREFERRED MODEL WITH THIS OUTLOOK. AS STRONG HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT OVERSPREAD THE CENTRAL GULF COAST DURING THE DAY...EXPECT SOME SORT OF SURFACE LOW WILL EVOLVE ALONG INTERSECTION OF SURFACE COLD FRONT AND E-W ORIENTED COASTAL BOUNDARY/WARM FRONT...AS DEPICTED BY THE GFS. THIS TRIPLE POINT/LOW CENTER WILL LIKELY TRACK ENEWD ACROSS NRN FL AND SRN GA OVERNIGHT AS A RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER SPREADS INLAND IN WAKE OF WARM FRONT LIFTING NWD ACROSS THIS AREA. ELSEWHERE...WIDESPREAD CONVECTION INCLUDING EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO SPREAD NNEWD ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC AND SRN NEW ENGLAND COASTS EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WHILE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVER ERN ND/NRN MN ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG SYSTEM DIGGING SEWD TOWARDS THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SEVERE THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL WITH THESE SYSTEMS. ...SOUTHEAST... GFS DEPICTS A 90+ KT MID LEVEL JET OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY BY LATE IN THE DAY...WHICH STRENGTHENS TO NEAR 100 KT OVER SRN GA/NRN FL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THUS...LOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BECOME QUITE STRONG BY THE LATE AFTERNOON OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...WHERE SURFACE LOW MAY FORM ALONG OR JUST OFF SHORE. THIS ENHANCED SHEAR WILL THEN OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTHEAST AFTER DARK...AS POSSIBLE SQUALL LINE EVOLVES OVER THE FL PANHANDLE/NERN GULF WHICH WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS SRN GA/NRN FL OVERNIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER MAY COOL SUFFICIENTLY TO PRECLUDE SURFACE BASED STORMS WITH THIS SQUALL LINE. HOWEVER...PRESENCE OF EXTREME SHEAR AND STRONG LARGE SCALE ASCENT OVERSPREADING A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS AROUND 70F...YIELD SOME CONCERN THAT ANY STORMS ROOTING INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY PRODUCE WIND DAMAGE AND/OR TORNADOES. ..EVANS.. 10/13/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Oct 13 17:40:04 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 13 Oct 2004 12:40:04 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200410131740.i9DHewt22104@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 131739 SWODY2 SPC AC 131738 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1238 PM CDT WED OCT 13 2004 VALID 141200Z - 151200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE GPT MOB TOI MCN 60 W SAV SSI ...CONT... DAB 45 S FMY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM RRT BJI RWF SPW OMA LNK GRI BUB PIR MBG 75 NNW DVL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NW LRD 45 NNW BPT 55 SE SHV TXK HOT JBR BNA LOZ HTS PKB MGW 40 ENE EKN CHO DCA ABE 30 SW BDL ACK. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS SRN AL...FL PANHANDLE...NRN FL AND SRN GA.... ...SYNOPSIS... PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE THROUGH PERIOD INTO HIGH-AMPLITUDE MEAN TROUGH OVER ERN CONUS...AND LONGWAVE RIDGE OFFSHORE PACIFIC COAST. MOST IMPORTANT SHORTWAVE FEATURE WILL BE TROUGH NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY FROM NWRN ONT TO SERN WY. EXPECT SIGNIFICANT AMPLIFICATION THROUGH REMAINDER DAY-1 AND INTO DAY-2 AS THIS FEATURE CONTINUES DIGGING SEWD ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS. BY 14/12Z...ETA/AVN/NGM AND SHORT-RANGE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH POSITION OF RESULTANT CLOSED LOW OVER NERN OK/SERN KS VICINITY. 15/12Z THIS FEATURE SHOULD PIVOT EWD AND DEAMPLIFY INTO OPEN-WAVE TROUGH OVER SRN APPALACHIANS...AS IT BEGINS TO EJECT FROM POSITION OF LARGE SCALE TROUGH. ASSOCIATED INTENSE SFC COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EWD/SEWD FROM MS VALLEY AND NWRN GULF...CROSSING MUCH OF FL AND GA BY END OF PERIOD. AS UPPER TROUGH APCHS FRONTAL ZONE LATE IN PERIOD...EXPECT CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THIS FRONT OVER CAROLINAS PIEDMONT OR COASTAL PLAIN REGION. MEANWHILE...UPPER LOW -- NOW EVOLVING INTO OPEN-WAVE TROUGH OVER LOWER OH VALLEY -- SHOULD CONTINUE GRADUAL DEAMPLIFICATION AS IT EJECTS NEWD ACROSS MID ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND STATES DAY-2. ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL CYCLONE AND ELEVATED WARM/MOIST ADVECTION REGIME MAY SUPPORT ELEVATED TSTM POTENTIAL FIRST HALF OF PERIOD. ...SERN CONUS... NEAR-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE SHOULD DEVELOP AND MOVE RAPIDLY EWD THURSDAY EVENING AND NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL/ERN GULF COASTAL PLAIN...WITH LEWP-BOW FORMATIONS POSSIBLE. MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WIND...THOUGH A FEW PREFRONTAL SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES ALSO ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEARS. RISK FOR DAMAGING GUSTS SHOULD INCREASE WITH SWD PROXIMITY TO COAST OVER AL AND FL PANHANDLE...INCLUDING AREAS HIT BY HURRICANE IVAN LAST MONTH. ATTM MAIN CONCERNS ARE WITH DEGREE OF BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS MODIFICATION/DESTABILIZATION IN PREFRONTAL RETURN FLOW...AND HOW FAR INLAND ANY FAVORABLE BUOYANCY WILL PENETRATE. THIS MAKES OUTLOOK PROBABILITIES LOWER AND MODE CONDITIONAL WITH NWD EXTENT OVER SERN STATES. ONGOING CONVECTION MOVING FROM S TX ACROSS NWRN GULF MAY IMPEDE SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE RETURN W OF MS RIVER. HOWEVER...EXPECT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TO DEVELOP AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER MS/AL AND PERHAPS EXTREME SERN LA...STRENGTHENING TO SEVERE LEVELS AS INFLOW-LAYER INSTABILITY STRENGTHENS. EXPECT THETAE TO INCREASE WITHIN GULF AIR MASS THROUGHOUT DAY FROM COMBINATION OF ADVECTION AND VERTICAL MARINE FLUXES...RESULTING IN SFC DEW POINTS IN MID 60S TO LOW 70S OVER NRN GULF AND 60S OVER ADJACENT LAND AREAS. NARROW CORRIDOR OF 70S DEW POINTS MAY PRECEDE SQUALL LINE OVER FL PANHANDLE LATE IN PERIOD. KINEMATIC PROFILES WILL BE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE. EXPECT WEAK LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL TURNING BUT STILL 100-200 J/KG 0-1 KM SRH...AND 50-60 KT 0-6 KM SHEAR..INVOF SFC COLD FRONT. TSTM LINE MAY WEAKEN AFTER ABOUT 15/06Z AS IT MOVES EWD INTO PROGRESSIVELY MORE STABLE AIR MASS...EFFECTIVELY OUT RUNNING FAVORABLE WARM SECTOR DESTABILIZATION. GIVEN STRENGTH OF KINEMATIC FIELDS...HOWEVER...CONDITIONAL SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY EXTEND OVER REMAINDER GA AND CAROLINAS. INTENSE/ELEVATED LOW LEVEL WAA AND LARGE SCALE MID-UPPER LEVEL ASCENT WILL SUPPORT GEN TSTM POTENTIAL ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN APPALACHIANS AS WELL. ..EDWARDS.. 10/13/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Oct 14 07:10:10 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 14 Oct 2004 02:10:10 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200410140711.i9E7B1t18517@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 140706 SWODY2 SPC AC 140705 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0205 AM CDT THU OCT 14 2004 VALID 151200Z - 161200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW CTY 30 WSW SSI 50 W CHS 30 NE CAE 50 E TRI 35 SE LEX 40 NNE SDF 10 SSW FWA 70 SSE OSC ...CONT... MSS 10 NE MPV 35 E MWN BHB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N CTB 40 ESE LWT 25 ESE SHR 20 NNW CPR 25 NW LND 20 ESE MQM 50 S S06 30 N 63S. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... MODELS IN AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING UPPER LOW OVER THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...WITH A SERIES OF STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND THIS MEAN LOW POSITION. LEADING SYSTEM WILL LIFT MORE NWD INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES WHILE ADDITIONAL STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL ADVANCE ENEWD AS A NEGATIVELY-TILTED TROUGH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. AT THE SURFACE...STRONG COLD FRONT /EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO ERN SC AND NRN FL FRIDAY MORNING/ WILL CONTINUE MOVING EWD OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...AND SWD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF FL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ...MID ATLANTIC COAST... PRESENCE OF VERY STRONG MID AND UPPER LEVEL WIND FIELDS AND ONSHORE FLOW WARRANT AT LEAST CONDITIONAL...LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES OVER THIS REGION FRIDAY. INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN LIMITED AS PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE MAY BE ONGOING OVER THIS REGION EARLY IN THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...ETA AND GFS FORECAST SSELY SURFACE WINDS OVER ERN NC/SERN VA THROUGH 18Z...WITH ONSHORE SURFACE WINDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC INTO THE AFTERNOON. WEAK LAPSE RATES AND MINIMAL INSTABILITY WILL CERTAINLY INHIBIT STRONG UPDRAFTS...THOUGH VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND A RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH LARGE RH/S SUGGEST SOME THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS OR AN ISOLATED TORNADO DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD. ...CENTRAL/SRN FL... SURFACE FRONT WILL CONTINUE PUSHING SWD ACROSS CENTRAL AND INTO SRN FL FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WHERE MODEST HEATING INTO THE 80S AND SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER...REGION WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF MID/UPPER LEVEL JET WITH WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES. IN ADDITION...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL BECOME MORE DIFFUSE AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS IN THE WARM SECTOR VEER TO A MORE WSWLY DIRECTION. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT WEAKENING OF LINEAR CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL FL DURING THE MORNING...THOUGH ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP DURING THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON AS HEATING COMMENCES. OVERALL SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LOW ATTM. ..EVANS.. 10/14/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Oct 14 16:41:09 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 14 Oct 2004 11:41:09 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200410141641.i9EGfxt25019@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 141640 SWODY2 SPC AC 141639 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1139 AM CDT THU OCT 14 2004 VALID 151200Z - 161200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW CTY 25 SW SSI 50 W CHS 35 SSW SOP 30 W DAN 35 SE LEX 40 NNE SDF 10 SSW FWA 70 SSE OSC ...CONT... MSS 10 NE MPV 35 E MWN BHB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N CTB 40 ESE LWT 25 ESE SHR 20 NNW CPR 25 NW LND 20 ESE MQM 50 S S06 30 N 63S. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER LOW CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE MID MS VLY NOW WILL CONTINUE TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. UPSTREAM UPPER IMPULSE OVER THE NRN PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO DIG SEWD IN WAKE OF THIS LOW...CARVING OUT A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE ERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY BY THE END OF THE WEEK. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MS VLY WAVE WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EWD AND BE LOCATED FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES TO CNTRL FL BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR TSTMS...PRIMARILY EARLY FRIDAY. ...CNTRL/SRN FL... BANDS OF TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING ACROSS CNTRL/SRN FL FRIDAY MORNING...BOTH ALONG THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING SWD THROUGH THE STATE AND ALONG AN OLDER BAROCLINIC ZONE SITUATED ACROSS FAR S FL. STRONGEST MIDLEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL TRANSLATE WELL NORTH OF THE REGION AND MASS CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONTS WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. AS A RESULT...TSTMS SHOULD WEAKEN WITH TIME FRIDAY MORNING. BUT...GIVEN MORNING H5 FLOW OF 40 KTS ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE FRONTS COUPLED WITH MLCAPES TO 1500 J/KG...ISOLD TSTMS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE THE GREATEST BEFORE 18Z...WITH RAPIDLY DECREASING PROBABILITIES THEREAFTER. ...MID-ATLANTIC REGION... PRIMARY BAND OF CONVECTION/TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE VERY NEAR THE ATLANTIC COAST FROM ERN VA INTO THE ERN CAROLINAS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. LOW-LEVEL DEW POINTS HAVE LOWERED CONSIDERABLY IN WAKE OF THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND INSTABILITY WILL BE LOW COINCIDENT WITH THE FRONT. HOWEVER...GIVEN STRONG WIND FIELDS /H85 AT 45 KTS AND H5 AT 85 KTS/...LOW PROBABILITIES OF ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST. OTHERWISE...DRY SLOT WRAPPING AROUND THE GREAT LAKES UPPER LOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE MID-ATLANTIC FRIDAY AFTERNOON. 12Z ETA FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE TOO UNSTABLE OWING TO SHALLOW CONVECTIVE SCHEME. INSTABILITY SHOULD BE RATHER LOW AS SUGGESTED BY 09Z SREF. HOWEVER...GIVEN 90+ METER MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS...STRONG LOW-MIDLEVEL WIND FIELDS AND AT LEAST MID 50S SURFACE DEW POINTS BENEATH MINUS 20C H5 TEMPERATURES...THE PROBABILITY FOR ISOLD TSTMS DEVELOPING WITHIN THE DRY SLOT IS NON-ZERO. GIVEN A TSTM...ISOLD HAIL/GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS. ..RACY.. 10/14/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Oct 15 07:09:53 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 15 Oct 2004 02:09:53 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200410150710.i9F7Aet01135@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 150708 SWODY2 SPC AC 150707 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0207 AM CDT FRI OCT 15 2004 VALID 161200Z - 171200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSE HRO MKL 45 NE HSV ANB 0A8 JAN TXK PGO 55 SSE HRO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ENE HVR GCC CPR LND IDA 60 NNW BOI PUW 40 NE 63S. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNW PBG 10 NE MSV MRB PKB 10 SSW MFD 45 W CLE. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...AR/LA/TN/MS/AL... LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST STATES ON SATURDAY...WITH ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING INTO CA. FAST WESTERLY FLOW AND WEAK UPPER RIDGING WILL BE PRESENT OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS PATTERN WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS OVER TX AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY...TRANSPORTING GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND POSING A RISK OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...UPPER RIDGING...AND ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL PRECLUDE A RISK OF ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS IN THIS AREA ON SATURDAY. ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON DAY2 UNDER COLD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION...AND OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED IN THESE REGIONS. ..HART.. 10/15/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Oct 15 16:24:17 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 15 Oct 2004 11:24:17 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200410151625.i9FGP5t28434@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 151617 SWODY2 SPC AC 151616 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1116 AM CDT FRI OCT 15 2004 VALID 161200Z - 171200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ENE CTB 35 NNE LWT 15 N BIL 55 SW BIL 40 N WEY 30 W BTM 25 WNW S80 15 WSW LWS 35 WNW GEG 40 NW 63S. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE DOV 30 NW SBY 25 SW DCA 40 SW MRB 15 NW AOO 25 SSE BFD 15 SSE JHW 30 SSW ERI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE MKL 20 E HSV 15 S RMG LGC 20 SE 0A8 45 SW CBM 35 N GLH 60 ENE LIT 40 SE MKL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MSS 30 SE UCA 30 S PSF 15 NNE ORH 25 NW PWM 15 W EPM. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS/FORECAST... UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL DEAMPLIFY THIS WEEKEND. COLD UPPER LOW/TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES/ERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY WILL ROTATE NEWD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND AND OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST ON SATURDAY. IN ITS WAKE...MAINLY ZONAL FLOW WILL EXIST WITH RISING HEIGHTS OVER THE CNTRL/SRN STATES. MEANWHILE...CLOSED UPPER LOW A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES WEST OF SRN CA WILL OPEN AND EJECT EWD AS A WEAKENING TROUGH AS ANOTHER STRONG UPPER IMPULSE DIGS SWD FROM THE GULF OF AK SATURDAY. STRONG TRANSPORT OF CP AIR MASS SWD INTO THE CONTINENTAL U.S. AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO/SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC BASIN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS WILL PRECLUDE RISKS OF SEVERE WEATHER ON SATURDAY. CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME AND STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT CONVECTION/SPORADIC TSTMS AHEAD OF A POTENT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE FROM CNTRL PA NEWD INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. OTHER TSTMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE DOWNWIND SIDES OF LAKES ERIE/ONTARIO WHERE DELTA-T/S WILL BE LARGE AND EQUILIBRIUM TEMPERATURES AOB MINUS 20C. OTHER TSTMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. H5 HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE GULF OF AK IMPULSE AND MOISTENING PROFILES WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION FOR AT LEAST ISOLD TSTMS. OTHERWISE...WEAK RETURN FLOW MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ELEVATED TSTMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS NRN PARTS OF MS/AL...PRIMARILY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. ..RACY.. 10/15/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Oct 16 07:30:38 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 16 Oct 2004 02:30:38 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200410160731.i9G7VMt29163@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 160728 SWODY2 SPC AC 160727 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0227 AM CDT SAT OCT 16 2004 VALID 171200Z - 181200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ALS PGA DRA MER RBL ONP OLM 4OM FCA LWT 4BQ 10 NW CDR AKO ALS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DSM MMO HTS HKY AND HSV 55 SW JBR SGF FNB DSM. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...MID MS AND LOWER OH VALLEY... FAST WESTERLY FLOW REGIME WILL BE PRESENT OVER MUCH OF THE NATION ON SUNDAY...WITH SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS RACING ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. RATHER DEEP SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER KS WITH WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY BY 18/12Z. STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL TRANSPORT GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AS FAR NORTH AS MO/IL BY MONDAY MORNING. MID LEVEL CAPPING SHOULD SUPPRESS DEEP CONVECTION FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD OVER THE WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER...INCREASING LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM MO INTO IND/KY/TN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW RATHER STEEP LAPSE RATES AND FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES FOR THE THREAT OF ROTATING STORMS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. PORTIONS OF THIS AREA MAY REQUIRE UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS IF GREATER DESTABILIZATION APPEARS LIKELY. ..HART.. 10/16/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Oct 16 16:46:12 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 16 Oct 2004 11:46:12 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200410161646.i9GGkst16286@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 161628 SWODY2 SPC AC 161627 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1127 AM CDT SAT OCT 16 2004 VALID 171200Z - 181200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW HQM 10 NW 4OM 15 ESE FCA 35 WSW PHP 15 SSW BUB 50 NNE GCK 40 NE CAO 10 N SAF 25 SE PGA 25 WSW DRA 15 NW SFO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE UIN 20 NNE HUF 45 ENE LEX 15 W HSS 25 W RMG 40 SW MEM 55 N HOT 10 NW UMN 50 N SZL 25 NE UIN. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE SRN CA COAST IS EXPECTED TO BECOME DISLODGED AND EJECTED NEWD STARTING TONIGHT AS A STRONG IMPULSE DIGS SEWD TO THE PAC NW COAST. THE CA TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AND RAPIDLY TRANSLATE EWD TO THE CNTRL PLAINS BY SUNDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...THE PAC NW TROUGH WILL TURN EWD INTO THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN/GREAT BASIN REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...LEE LOW WILL INTENSIFY SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO MIDLEVEL HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING EWD AHEAD OF THE CA TROUGH. THIS LOW WILL MOVE EWD INTO KS SUNDAY NIGHT. STRONG SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS LOW...AND WILL BE THE IMPETUS FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE TSTMS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID MS/TN VLYS. ...MID MS/TN VLYS... MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE MID 60S WAS ALREADY STARTING TO RETURN TO THE WRN GULF COAST. INCREASING SLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING CA TROUGH WILL ADVECT THIS MOISTURE NWD INTO THE LOWER MS VLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THOUGH THE WARM SECTOR WILL REMAIN CAPPED DURING THE DAY...POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED TSTMS WILL EXIST SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID MS/TN VLYS WHERE STRONGEST WARM/MOIST ADVECTION REGIME IS EXPECTED. EFFECTIVE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS AND STRONGER TSTMS MAY GIVE ISOLD SEVERE HAIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. ..RACY.. 10/16/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Oct 17 07:19:09 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 17 Oct 2004 02:19:09 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200410170719.i9H7Jmt26106@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 170717 SWODY2 SPC AC 170716 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0216 AM CDT SUN OCT 17 2004 VALID 181200Z - 191200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM LAF LUK 45 S LEX 40 S BNA 45 N GLH HOT HRO SZL FNB OMA DSM MLI LAF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM GLS GGG FYV OJC BIE CDR GCC 55 W MLS GDV BIS RWF CGX MFD DUJ ABE 25 SW ACY. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE MID MS AND LOWER OH VALLEYS... FAST ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NATION ON MONDAY...WITH SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING WEST-TO-EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MS/OH VALLEYS. DEEP SURFACE LOW WILL BE OVER KS MONDAY MORNING...DEVELOPING EASTWARD ALONG WARM FRONT INTO MO/IL OVERNIGHT. A LARGE MOIST/UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID/LOWER MS VALLEY WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S. CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD LIMIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. HOWEVER...PRESENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST A SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER PARTS OF THE MID MS AND LOWER OH VALLEYS. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SURFACE DRYLINE WILL SURGE EASTWARD INTO MO/AR BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS BOUNDARY...ALONG WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG WARM FRONT OVER IL/IND WILL LIKELY SERVE AS PRIMARY FOCI FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG IN THESE REGIONS. LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR VALUES /6KM SHEAR OF 40-50 KNOTS AND 3KM SRH OF 250-400 M2/S2/ APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. PARTS OF AR/MO/IL MAY REQUIRE AN UPGRADE TO MODERATE RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS AS MODELS CONVERGE ON DETAILS OF FORECAST. ..HART.. 10/17/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Oct 18 06:39:05 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 18 Oct 2004 01:39:05 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200410180640.i9I6eot14366@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 180638 SWODY2 SPC AC 180638 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0138 AM CDT MON OCT 18 2004 VALID 191200Z - 201200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM HSS 45 NNW AHN ANB JAN MLU 35 SE TXK 30 NW LIT ARG PAH 40 SSW SDF LOZ HSS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 ENE 63S PUW 50 NNE BOI IDA 15 NNW OGD ELY LAS 35 SE LGB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE BPT GGG HRO BMI GRR 60 SE OSC ...CONT... ART ALB HYA. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE ARKLATEX REGION INTO THE TN VALLEY... ...LOWER MS AND TN VALLEYS... LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AND AMPLIFY ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST ON TUESDAY...WITH FAST ZONAL FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN UNITED STATES. WIDESPREAD WARM/MOIST LOW LEVEL AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE ON DAY2 FROM TX/OK EASTWARD TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. HOWEVER...RELATIVELY WEAK UPPER FORCING AND SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL CAP SHOULD LIMIT STRONG CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO PARTS OF THE LOWER MS/TN VALLEYS AND NORTHERN GULF COAST STATES. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT AXIS OF RATHER STRONG DAYTIME HEATING WILL OCCUR FROM MUCH OF AR INTO WESTERN TN/KY. THIS WILL HELP WEAKEN CAP AND DESTABILIZE AIRMASS...LEADING TO ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000 J/KG ARE EXPECTED ALONG THIS AXIS. LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE WESTERLY ON TUESDAY...RESULTING IN WEAKER LOW LEVEL SHEAR. HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. EASTWARD SPREAD OF SEVERE THREAT DURING THE EVENING MAY BE HAMPERED BY MORE STABLE AIRMASS ACROSS MIDDLE/EASTERN TN AND EASTERN KY. ..HART.. 10/18/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Oct 18 16:28:43 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 18 Oct 2004 11:28:43 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200410181630.i9IGUSu04365@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 181625 SWODY2 SPC AC 181623 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1123 AM CDT MON OCT 18 2004 VALID 191200Z - 201200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW ELD 25 WNW LIT 30 SSE CGI 35 ENE OWB 45 S SDF RMG 25 E ANB 15 S 0A8 35 NW LUL 35 SE MLU 30 WSW ELD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 ENE 63S PUW 50 NNE BOI IDA 15 NNW OGD ELY LAS 35 SE LGB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE BPT GGG HRO 20 NNW CMI 45 ESE DTW 15 SSW ISP. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE WRN STATES ON TUESDAY AS IMPULSES CONTINUE TO DROP SWD FROM THE GULF OF AK. DOWNSTREAM...MAINLY ZONAL FLOW WILL BE THE RULE WITH SRN STREAM JETLETS MIGRATING FROM THE SUB-TROPICAL PACIFIC EWD INTO THE SRN STATES. AT THE SURFACE...A FRONT WILL BE QUASI-STATIONARY FROM THE OH VLY WWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS. A WEAK LOW WILL MOVE FROM OK INTO AR DURING TUESDAY. ...MID-SOUTH... ABSENCE OF STRONG LARGE SCALE SUPPORT WITHIN ZONAL UPPER FLOW REGIME MAKES FOR A CHALLENGING CONVECTIVE FORECAST ON TUESDAY. SEVERAL TSTM CLUSTERS WILL EVOLVE FROM TODAY'S ACTIVITY AND WILL BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE DAY 2 PERIOD. THE STRONGEST TSTMS SHOULD EXIST ACROSS PARTS OF THE AR-LA-MS AREA...FEEDING OFF OF THE INSTABILITY AND STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ADVECTING EWD FROM TX. THESE TSTMS SHOULD MOVE EWD THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH DURING THE DAY...THOUGH EWD EXTENT OF THE SEVERE THREAT IS UNCERTAIN OWING TO DECREASING H85 WINDS AND STORMS MOVING FARTHER FROM THE INSTABILITY AXIS. MEANWHILE...AIR MASS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO RECOVER IN THE WAKE OF EARLY DAY CONVECTION...ALONG THE DRYLINE AND FRONT FROM SRN AR NEWD INTO THE LWR OH VLY. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL HAVE VEERED AND WEAKENED BY THEN AND HEATING WILL BE THE PRIMARY IMPETUS FOR INITIATING TSTMS. THOUGH THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE WEAK... VERTICAL SHEAR IN THE LOWEST 6 KM WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE LATE AFTERNOON STORMS MAY EVENTUALLY TRANSITION INTO A MCS AND MOVE ESEWD. STRONGER TSTMS SHOULD BACKBUILD WSWWD INTO SRN AR AND NRN MS WITHIN STRONGER INSTABILITY AND HAIL/WIND THREATS WILL CONTINUE. FARTHER EAST...AIR MASS MAY BE TOO STABLE TO SUPPORT SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS ERN KY/MID-ERN TN. ..RACY.. 10/18/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Oct 19 06:52:31 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 19 Oct 2004 01:52:31 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200410190654.i9J6sDu13950@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 190651 SWODY2 SPC AC 190650 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0150 AM CDT TUE OCT 19 2004 VALID 201200Z - 211200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM YKM EPH FCA 10 SE BIL CPR ASE 70 SE PGA GBN YUM NID FAT SAC 4LW BNO YKM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM BUF 10 SSE AOO LYH 25 ESE OAJ ...CONT... 10 SSE PNS GWO JBR STL SPI BEH MTC. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... STRONG UPPER TROUGH NOW APPROACHING THE PACIFIC COAST WILL DEEPEN OVER THE WESTERN STATES ON WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...UPPER RIDGING WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE MS/OH/TN VALLEY REGION...WHERE MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS FORECAST TO BE PRESENT. RATHER STRONG DAYTIME HEATING IS LIKELY ON DAY2 FROM OK EASTWARD INTO OH/KY...RESULTING IN AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OVER 1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...WEAK LOW LEVEL WINDS AND UPPER RIDING SHOULD PROVIDE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING MECHANISMS FOR DEEP CONVECTION. FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MODERATELY STEEP LAPSE RATES APPEAR SUFFICIENT FOR A CONDITIONAL THREAT OF HAIL/WIND IN THE OH/TN VALLEYS. CONFIDENCE IN ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS LOW...SO WILL ONLY OUTLOOK LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME. ..HART.. 10/19/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Oct 19 17:30:48 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 19 Oct 2004 12:30:48 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200410191732.i9JHWSu00606@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 191730 SWODY2 SPC AC 191729 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1229 PM CDT TUE OCT 19 2004 VALID 201200Z - 211200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM YKM EPH FCA 25 N BIL 45 SSW GCC ASE 70 SE PGA 45 E IGM 30 W TRM 20 WNW RAL 20 ENE OXR 25 SE PRB 30 N SJC 30 E UKI 45 NW RBL 15 N MFR 15 NNW RDM YKM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE MOB 25 SE GLH 30 NE MLC 45 SW SZL 35 WNW COU 10 ESE STL 50 SSE MTO 25 SE FWA 10 E FKL 15 SW PSB 40 S ROA 45 SSE TYS 20 ENE AHN 25 SSW CAE 40 SE CLT 25 SW RDU 25 SE ORF. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... MID-LEVEL PATTERN IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY THIS PERIOD AS SHORT-WAVE TROUGH EXITS THE ERN SEABOARD. BEHIND THIS TROUGH...AMPLIFICATION OF LARGE-SCALE RIDGE IS FORECAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND ERN CONUS DOWNSTREAM OF STRONG / DIGGING WRN U.S. TROUGH. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...SHARP WRN TROUGH IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM WRN CANADA SWD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN / CA INTO THE ERN PACIFIC W OF BAJA CA...WHILE A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO NWD TO THE GREAT LAKES. ...TN VALLEY REGION... A LOW-PROBABILITY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE MAINTAINED THIS FORECAST PERIOD ACROSS PARTS OF WRN AND MIDDLE TN INTO ADJACENT WRN KY...THOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. DAYTIME HEATING OF MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO CU DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...BUT VERTICAL GROWTH SHOULD REMAIN SUPPRESSED THOUGH MUCH OF THE DAY DUE TO LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE / WARMING AT MID-LEVELS AS RIDGING OVERSPREADS THIS REGION BEHIND DEPARTING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. SUBSIDENCE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE PATTERN / LIMITED BOUNDARY-LAYER CONVERGENCE SUGGESTS ONLY A LIMITED THREAT FOR DEEPER CONVECTION. ADDITIONALLY...EVEN IF CONVECTION GROWS SUFFICIENT DEEP LOCALLY TO ALLOW ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT...RELATIVELY WEAK DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD WITHIN MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE RIDGE SUGGESTS ONLY A MINIMAL SEVERE THREAT AT BEST. ..GOSS.. 10/19/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Oct 20 07:19:13 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 20 Oct 2004 02:19:13 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200410200720.i9K7Kou15367@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 200718 SWODY2 SPC AC 200717 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0217 AM CDT WED OCT 20 2004 VALID 211200Z - 221200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE MOB 0A8 GAD AHN AGS 30 S SAV. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNE ART LEB BAF EWR CXY DUJ 30 NW JHW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ENE ELO VOK PIA BLV 15 NW POF 55 SSE HRO FYV CNU LNK 55 WSW YKN VTN BFF DEN TAD LVS TCS SAD PHX EED TPH WMC BOI S06 FCA 3HT 4BQ Y22 BIS 55 NNE DVL. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... POWERFUL UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY ALONG THE NORTHERN CA COAST WILL TRACK ACROSS THE ROCKIES TODAY AND THURSDAY...WHILE LARGE RIDGE PERSISTS OVER THE MS/OH/TN VALLEYS. DESPITE THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND MODERATE INSTABILITY...A SUBSTANTIAL CAPPING INVERSION IS LIKELY TO INHIBIT DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. ETA/GFS GUIDANCE BOTH SUGGEST A RISK OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THURSDAY EVENING FROM MO/IL INTO MN. MUCAPE VALUES OF UP TO 1000 J/KG WOULD SUGGEST A LOW RISK OF HAIL IN STRONGER CELLS. GFS SOLUTION ALSO SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER PARTS OF EASTERN KS/WESTERN MO AROUND DAYBREAK FRIDAY MORNING. THESE STORMS WOULD BE IN THE WARM SECTOR...AND WOULD POSE AN ISOLATED RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER AS WELL. OVERALL THREAT APPEARS TOO MARGINAL/NEBULOUS AT THIS TIME TO WARRANT A SLIGHT RISK. ..HART.. 10/20/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Oct 20 17:32:43 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 20 Oct 2004 12:32:43 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200410201734.i9KHYJu24185@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 201729 SWODY2 SPC AC 201728 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1228 PM CDT WED OCT 20 2004 VALID 211200Z - 221200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E GPT 45 NNW PNS 10 WSW DHN 45 NE ABY 40 SSW AGS 35 ENE SAV. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WNW OXR 30 SSW NID 65 W DRA 35 NE U31 70 SW 27U 35 WNW FCA 20 SE HVR 40 S GGW 45 E MLS 20 NNE DIK 60 NNE MOT ...CONT... 80 NNW CMX 35 NW IMT 10 W MMO 15 NNE VIH 25 SSE MKO 25 ENE ABI 40 WNW SJT 50 E HOB 10 WNW LBB 20 N CSM 35 ENE HUT 40 N CNK 30 E BUB 20 NNW LBF 10 N IML 20 ESE DEN 15 NNE TAD 10 SSW LVS 10 NNE TCS 10 NNW SAD 25 WNW TUS 70 WSW TUS. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... AMPLIFIED / SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE MID-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN IS FORECAST ACROSS THE CONUS THIS PERIOD...WITH MAIN FEATURE BEING LARGE / DEEP TROUGH OVER THE WRN CONUS. THE TROUGH AXIS -- INITIALLY FORECAST FROM WRN ALBERTA SWD ACROSS NV / CA INTO THE ERN PACIFIC W OF BAJA -- SHOULD EXTEND FROM WRN SASKATCHEWAN SWD TO ERN AZ BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS FEATURE...RIDGE WILL PREVAIL / SHIFT SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS / TN / OH VALLEYS AND UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THE SURFACE...LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN IS FORECAST ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW TURNS SLY IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT FALLS / APPROACHING TROUGH. COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SEWD FROM MT ACROSS THE DAKOTAS / WY AND INTO NEB BY LATE IN THE PERIOD...WITH DEEPENING LOW ALONG FRONT / PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY 22/12Z. ...PORTIONS OF THE MID AND UPPER MS / MIDDLE MO VALLEYS... ALTHOUGH LARGE-SCALE PATTERN APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTIVE / SEVERE THREAT ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS...LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN NWD ACROSS THE PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT AVAILABLE INSTABILITY AND THUS SEVERE POTENTIAL. ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD -- CENTERED OVER IA AND INTO ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SURROUNDING STATES. AS SSWLY LOW-LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES TO 50 TO 60 KT DURING THE EVENING / OVERNIGHT...LOW-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION ABOVE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR ELEVATED STORM DEVELOPMENT. ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT INCREASINGLY-STRONG DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD AND SUFFICIENTLY-STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD SUPPORT A THREAT FOR HAIL WITH A FEW STRONGER STORMS AFTER SUNSET. ..GOSS.. 10/20/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Oct 21 07:29:27 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 21 Oct 2004 02:29:27 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200410210731.i9L7V1u32689@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 210726 SWODY2 SPC AC 210725 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0225 AM CDT THU OCT 21 2004 VALID 221200Z - 231200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM EMP FNB SUX FSD STC EAU RFD DEC ARG GGG ACT 40 SW BWD ABI OKC EMP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE BVE POE AUS 40 SE DRT ...CONT... 80 SE ELP INK LTS END HUT 55 NNE GCK LAA RTN ABQ 15 WSW SOW PRC SGU MLF RWL SHR DIK 60 NE MOT ...CONT... CMX 10 SE MBL AZO HUF 45 NE MKL TCL 35 SSE CEW. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CENTRAL TX INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY... ...MID/UPPER MS VALLEY... VERY STRONG UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL ROTATE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY. DEEP SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE FROM NORTHWEST KS/NORTHEAST CO FRIDAY MORNING...TO NEAR FSD BY 23/00Z. SURFACE DRYLINE WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD FROM LOW INTO EASTERN NEB/KS AND CENTRAL OK/TX. AIRMASS ALONG AND EAST OF DRYLINE WILL BE VERY MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S AS FAR NORTH AS NORTHWEST IA. STRONG SURFACE HEATING IS EXPECTED WEST OF DRYLINE AND SOMEWHAT INTO THE WARM SECTOR...HELPING TO PRODUCE AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 2000 J/KG ALONG THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE DRYLINE. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE PERIOD IN REGION OF STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ACROSS MN/IA/MO. THESE STORMS WILL SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WARM FRONT...WITH A RISK OF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL. OTHER MORE INTENSE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE DRYLINE OVER WESTERN IA/MO INTO EASTERN OK DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AS MAIN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES. VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL PROMOTE SUPERCELL STORMS WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES. GFS AND ETA SOLUTIONS DIFFER IN TIMING AND STRENGTH OF SYSTEM...LESSENING CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE/LOCATION OF SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER IF GFS SOLUTION IS CORRECT...A CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED AND POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE ACTIVITY MAY OCCUR OVER PARTS OF IA/MO...AND AN UPGRADE TO MODERATE RISK WOULD BE REQUIRED. ...TX/SOUTHERN OK... SURFACE DRYLINE WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN OK/NORTH TX FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ETA/GFS GUIDANCE SHOW SUBTROPICAL JET ROTATING ACROSS THIS REGION...WHERE AMPLE MOISTURE AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF THE DRYLINE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER NORTH TX/SOUTHERN OK. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS. ..HART.. 10/21/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Oct 21 17:33:09 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 21 Oct 2004 12:33:09 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200410211734.i9LHYfu27665@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 211732 SWODY2 SPC AC 211731 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1231 PM CDT THU OCT 21 2004 VALID 221200Z - 231200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM EMP 20 NW FNB 20 WNW OTG 20 ESE ATY 25 NNE AXN 40 S DLH 30 NW OSH CMI ARG GGG ACT 40 SW BWD ABI OKC EMP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SE ELP 25 NNE HOB CSM 15 SW SLN 55 WNW CNK 55 SE GLD 25 ENE LHX 10 E PUB 25 SE ALS 40 NNW 4SL 35 WSW 4BL 20 WSW 4HV 25 W VEL 30 W LAR 55 NW CDR 45 NNE MBG 35 WNW INL ...CONT... 35 ESE OSC 10 NE ARB IND 10 SSW MEM 45 W LFK 30 SSE DRT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE ERN PLAINS STATES... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER TROUGH INITIALLY OVER THE ROCKIES IS FORECAST TO SHIFT ENEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES THIS PERIOD...ACCOMPANIED BY 70 TO 80 KT SWLY MID-LEVEL JET. DOWNSTREAM...HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED RIDGE WILL SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES / OH AND TN VALLEYS / WRN GULF THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...LOW INITIALLY FORECAST ACROSS NERN CO WILL DEEPEN AND SHIFT ENEWD ACROSS NEB DURING THE DAY...AND THEN NEWD ACROSS MN TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR LATE IN THE PERIOD. A NW-SE ORIENTED WARM FRONT AT THE LEADING EDGE OF RETURNING MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS IS FORECAST TO SHIFT SLOWLY NEWD ACROSS THE MID MO / MID MS VALLEYS...AND WILL LIKELY PROVIDE A ZONE OF FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. OTHER LOW-LEVEL FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE THE COLD FRONT...FORECAST TO MOVE RAPIDLY EWD / SEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD. THIS FRONT -- FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM MN SWWD INTO FAR NWRN KS DURING THE AFTERNOON -- SHOULD ARC FROM THE WRN UPPER LAKES SWWD ACROSS MO AND INTO THE TRANSPECOS REGION OF TX BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. ...UPPER MS VALLEY SSWWD INTO PARTS OF OK / TX... COMPLEX FORECAST THIS PERIOD AS RAPID CHANGES TO THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT WILL OCCUR OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS AHEAD OF LARGE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. FORECAST WILL BE FURTHER COMPLICATED BY UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING LOCATION AND COVERAGE OF STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG WARM ADVECTION REGIME DURING THE MORNING / AFTERNOON...AND WHAT EFFECTS THIS CONVECTION WILL HAVE ON THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT AS UPPER TROUGH / COLD FRONT APPROACH LATER IN THE DAY. ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT ANY ONGOING CONVECTION AT THE START OF THE PERIOD SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING / AFTERNOON FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY SWWD INTO TX. THOUGH SHEAR BY THIS TIME SHOULD ALREADY BE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS A LARGE AREA...ONE FOCUSED AREA OF THREAT WILL LIKELY EXIST ALONG RETREATING WARM FRONT ACROSS PARTS OF IA / MO INTO THE MID MS VALLEY. WITH BACKED LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD ALONG AND ON THE COOL SIDE OF THIS BOUNDARY AND PARTICULARLY E / NE OF SURFACE LOW...A FAVORABLE ZONE FOR LOW-LEVEL STORM ROTATION AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR TORNADOES WILL EXIST -- SHIFTING NEWD THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. MORE UNCERTAIN WILL BE THE EVOLUTION OF ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. IT APPEARS THAT STORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO ORGANIZE LINEARLY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD AS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES AND COLD FRONT BEGINS A STRONGER PUSH EWD / SEWD. ALTHOUGH HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH A COUPLE OF TORNADOES WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FROM ROUGHLY NERN OK NEWD...THREAT MAY EVOLVE MORE TOWARD DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS MORE LINEAR ORGANIZATION LIKELY OCCURS. FURTHER SWWD ACROSS OK AND INTO PARTS OF TX...STORMS SHOULD BE LESS WIDESPREAD -- LIKELY INITIATING ALONG AN EWD-MOVING DRYLINE. THOUGH SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS...A DRIER / MORE DEEPLY-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGESTS THAT HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS -- WITH THREAT DECREASING WITH SWWD EXTENT. ..GOSS.. 10/21/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Oct 22 07:38:02 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 22 Oct 2004 02:38:02 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200410220739.i9M7dWu13673@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 220737 SWODY2 SPC AC 220736 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0236 AM CDT FRI OCT 22 2004 VALID 231200Z - 241200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE TYR 45 ENE LIT 30 NNE SLO 20 WNW JVL 40 NNW EAU 10 NW DLH 80 N IWD 35 E CMX 35 NNW TVC AZO 30 W MIE 25 SSW LUK 30 SW LOZ 10 ESE HSV 35 WSW TCL 15 NNW HEZ 50 ENE LFK 40 NNE TYR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 115 NE APN 10 ESE ERI MGW 20 E TRI 20 E AHN SEM 15 W MCB 45 N HOU 30 SE SAT 20 WNW LRD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 S MRF 35 WNW P07 FTW 40 SSE HRO 20 SSW SPI 35 ESE DBQ 35 SE MKT 60 N ATY 25 SSW GFK 15 NNW RRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 N FCA 20 N MSO 55 SSW 3DU 50 ESE BKE 75 NNW BNO 15 SW MFR 50 SSW OTH. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE MS...LWR OH AND TN VLYS... ...SYNOPSIS... NRN PART OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE SRN GRT BASIN EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE NE ACROSS THE UPR MS VLY/UPR GRT LKS ON SATURDAY AS SRN PART SHEARS ENE FROM THE SRN PLNS INTO THE TN VLY. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW...LIKELY TO BE OVER CNTRL MN AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...SHOULD LIFT NNE INTO NW ONTARIO. TRAILING COLD FRONT SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES E/NE ACROSS THE MID MS/LWR OH VLYS... WHILE SRN PART BECOMES QUASISTATIONARY OVER E TX AND THE LWR MS VLY. ...UPR MS VLY... STRONG/DEEP FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH NRN PART OF EJECTING SHORTWAVE IMPULSE...COUPLED WITH SUSTAINED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG COLD FRONT...SHOULD SUPPORT A NARROW LINE OF FORCED CONVECTION OVER PARTS OF WI AND PERHAPS WRN/NRN MI ON SATURDAY. WHILE SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY CONTINUE FROM THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...MODEST SURFACE HEATING AND INFLUX OF BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S SHOULD ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT/STRENGTHENING BY MIDDAY AS MLCAPE RISES TO NEAR 1000 J/KG. GIVEN PROXIMITY OF 60 KT SSWLY MID LEVEL JET...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS/SMALL SCALE BOWS WITH HIGH WIND/MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO. THE STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN AS THEY CONTINUE E/NEWD LATER IN THE DAY AS BREADTH OF SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY AXIS WILL REMAIN RATHER LIMITED. ...LWR MS INTO LWR OH/TN VLYS... A SEPARATE AREA OF SOMEWHAT CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST FROM THE LWR OH VLY SW INTO THE LWR MS AND TN VLYS...WHERE A BAND OF MODERATE TO STRONG /50-60 KT/ SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD EXISTING BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH WARM CONVEYOR BELT. ARRIVAL OF STRONGER FLOW...COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING...MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO POSE A THREAT FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS/BOWING SEGMENTS WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM DURING THE AFTERNOON. SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL...HOWEVER...BE LIMITED BY WEAK LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THE RATHER LOW PROSPECTS FOR SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE HEATING. A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY...NEVERTHELESS...CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING ALONG TRAILING SRN PART OF COMPLEX OVER LA/MS. KINEMATIC AND THERMODYNAMIC SETUP IN THIS REGION WILL LIKELY FAVOR SOME BACK-BUILDING/UPSTREAM DEVELOPMENT LATER IN THE PERIOD. ..CORFIDI.. 10/22/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Oct 22 17:26:37 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 22 Oct 2004 12:26:37 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200410221728.i9MHS5u17593@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 221726 SWODY2 SPC AC 221725 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1225 PM CDT FRI OCT 22 2004 VALID 231200Z - 241200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N SLO 30 NE MMO 20 SW EAU 65 N EAU 10 NW IWD 30 S CMX 15 SSW ESC 25 NNW AZO 25 W MIE 25 SSW LUK 45 SW LOZ 25 NE HSV 35 WSW TCL 15 WNW HEZ 45 NE LFK 40 NNE TYR 45 ENE LIT 30 N SLO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ELP 25 SSW HOB 15 ENE BGS 25 ESE ABI 45 N FTW 10 N JLN 10 N OTM 30 S MCW 20 SSW FRM 40 NNE AXN 35 ENE BJI INL ...CONT... 115 NE APN 10 ESE ERI 25 NNW EKN 15 NE TRI 30 ENE ATL 25 SW MGM 20 SE BTR 30 WSW 7R4 ...CONT... 50 S VCT 15 S LRD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 N FCA 40 N 3DU 55 SSW 3DU 40 NW BOI 40 WNW BNO 50 NW RDM 30 SSW AST. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SSWWD ACROSS THE OH / TN / LOWER MS VALLEYS INTO NERN TX... ...SYNOPSIS... MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH INITIALLY OVER THE PLAINS WILL WEAKEN DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS IT SHIFTS EWD TOWARD SHARP UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS. MEANWHILE...LARGE UPSTREAM TROUGH WILL DIG SEWD WITH TIME ACROSS THE WRN CONUS. AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH INITIAL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SHOULD EXTEND SSWWD FROM A SURFACE LOW OVER MN ACROSS THE MO VALLEY AND INTO ERN OK / N TX AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THE MID AND UPPER MS / LOWER AND MID OH VALLEYS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHILE LAGGING / WEAKENING ACROSS N TX THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD. ...UPPER GREAT LAKES SWD ACROSS THE OH / TN / LOWER MS VALLEYS... MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION THIS PERIOD IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WITHIN WARM CONVEYOR / TROPICAL PLUME AHEAD OF MAIN SURFACE FRONT. MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS BAND OF CONVECTION SHOULD INITIALLY EXTEND FROM LK MI SWWD ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY INTO AR / NERN TX...AND WILL THEN SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE OH / TN / LOWER MS VALLEYS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THIS SCENARIO...WHICH SEEMS TO BE CONSISTENT WITH CURRENT CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION...LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR DESTABILIZATION WILL EXIST AHEAD OF CONVECTIVE BAND -- PARTICULARLY N OF THE OH VALLEY WHERE STORMS WILL LIKELY REMAIN PRIMARILY ELEVATED. THIS IS DUE TO THE FACT THAT NOT ONLY WILL THE CONVECTIVE BAND OUTRUN REGION OF STRONGER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION...CONVECTION WILL ALSO BE IMPINGING ON WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT / WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH PERSISTENT ERN U.S. UPPER RIDGE. THOUGH MODELS DO INDICATE SOME DESTABILIZATION DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG FRONT / BEHIND INITIAL CONVECTIVE BAND...LITTLE CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT IS INDICATED BY THE MODELS ALONG FRONTAL ZONE. DESPITE THESE NEGATIVES...STRONG / ROUGHLY UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS OR WIND DAMAGE ALONG ANY LINEAR CONVECTIVE BANDS. ADDITIONALLY...ALTHOUGH FLOW SHOULD REMAIN ROUGHLY UNIDIRECTIONAL ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER...SOME VEERING IN THE 0-1 KM LAYER AS WELL AS AN INCREASE IN WIND SPEED THROUGH THIS LAYER SHOULD RESULT IN SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR AT LEAST A LOW-PROBABILITY TORNADO THREAT. ATTM...WILL MAINTAIN A FAIRLY LARGE SLIGHT RISK AREA TO INCLUDE BOTH THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS OR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO WITHIN PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE BAND AS WELL AS THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE STORM REDEVELOPMENT ALONG FRONT / BEHIND INITIAL BAND OF CONVECTION. SEVERE THREAT WILL DECREASE DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD AS WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH / WIND FIELD AND DIURNAL AIRMASS STABILIZATION OCCUR. ..GOSS.. 10/22/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Oct 23 07:31:31 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 23 Oct 2004 02:31:31 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200410230732.i9N7Wwu12594@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 230730 SWODY2 SPC AC 230729 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0229 AM CDT SAT OCT 23 2004 VALID 241200Z - 251200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW MLB 20 SSW SRQ ...CONT... 25 ESE DUG 20 NNE DMN 40 ENE ROW 40 SW CDS 10 SW OKC FSM 10 SSE PBF 25 SSW JAN 20 N CEW 40 SE CSG 20 SSE AND 40 WNW FLO 30 SW CRE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SW DRA 25 SSW BIH 30 SE NFL 35 SSE EKO 30 W PUC 45 SSE CDC 55 SW DRA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW GLS 40 NNE VCT 50 S SAT 35 NW LRD. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... MODERATE W TO WSWLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CNTRL U.S. ON SUNDAY ...BETWEEN BROAD/FLAT RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SERIES OF PROGRESSIVE DISTURBANCES IN THE NRN BRANCH CROSSING THE RCKYS...NRN PLNS AND UPR MS VLY. THE GULF RIDGE WILL BUILD N INTO THE LWR MS VLY LATER IN THE PERIOD AS STRONG IMPULSE NOW CROSSING THE ALEUTIANS CONTINUES SEWD AND AMPLIFIES WITHIN MEAN TROUGH OVER THE NE PACIFIC. AT LOWER LEVELS...FRONT/COMPOSITE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH AFFECTING THE PLNS/MS VLY REGION WILL WEAKEN AS IT BECOMES QUASISTATIONARY OVER SE TX AND THE LWR MS VLY BY 12Z SUNDAY. THE WRN PART OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL REDEVELOP N TO NEAR THE RED RIVER LATER SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE OVER ERN PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLNS. FARTHER N...A SECONDARY FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW IN THE PACIFIC NW WILL DROP S ACROSS THE CNTRL RCKYS/PLNS. ...S CNTRL TX NE TO THE ARKLATEX... A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP WITH DAYTIME HEATING OVER S CNTRL AND SE TX...IN ZONE OF WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG STALLING FRONT AND/OR ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LEFT FROM DAY ONE PREFRONTAL CONVECTIVE BAND. RELATIVELY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES /AROUND MINUS 8 AT 500 MB/ SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL DESPITE PRESENCE OF RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE. SURFACE HEATING WILL...HOWEVER...LIKELY BOOST MEAN MLCAPE TO AOA 1000 J/KG. COUPLED WITH 40 KT WSWLY MID LEVEL FLOW ON FRINGE OF UPPER RIDGE...SETUP COULD YIELD A FEW SUSTAINED STORMS/ORGANIZED CLUSTERS WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND WIND DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL STRONG TO POSSIBLY LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE PERIOD OVER PARTS OF N CNTRL AND NE TX AS WARM ADVECTION/ MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASE N OF DEVELOPING WARM FRONT. WHILE PROXIMITY OF UPPER RIDGE WILL STILL KEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES RATHER WEAK...GULF MOISTURE INFLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO 1000-1500 J/KG ELEVATED CAPE. SUFFICIENT /35 KT/ CLOUD-LAYER SHEAR MAY BE PRESENT TO SUPPORT A FEW STORMS WITH HAIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. ..CORFIDI.. 10/23/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Oct 23 17:30:13 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 23 Oct 2004 12:30:13 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200410231731.i9NHVcu11015@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 231726 SWODY2 SPC AC 231725 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1225 PM CDT SAT OCT 23 2004 VALID 241200Z - 251200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 SSW GDP 35 E CNM 10 SW CDS 15 ESE OKC 35 ENE BVO 35 NNE SGF 50 ESE VIH 40 N DYR 45 WSW CBM 15 ESE LFT 25 S HOU 30 NNW NIR 60 W COT. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WHICH HAS MOVED ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. THE LAST 24-36 HOURS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT IMPINGES ON PERSISTENT RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE ERN CONUS. MEANWHILE...MEAN LONG-WAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN ESTABLISHED OVER THE WEST. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKENING TROUGH APPROACHING THE ERN CONUS WILL ALSO WEAKEN WITH TIME...WITH DISSIPATING / TRAILING PORTION OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS TX POSSIBLY ACTING AS A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...SECOND COLD FRONT WILL SURGE SEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS PERIOD AHEAD OF STRONG SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE NRN PLAINS. ...TX / ARKLATEX REGION... LARGE-SCALE HEIGHT RISES AND A RETURN TO A LOW-LEVEL SLY FLOW / WARM ADVECTION REGIME WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS THIS PERIOD AS ERN U.S. SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WEAKENS AND NEW SURFACE SYSTEM DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PLAINS. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND SUFFICIENTLY-UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL RETURN NWD ACROSS TX DURING THE AFTERNOON...DISSIPATING BOUNDARY AND GENERAL HEIGHT RISES SUGGEST LITTLE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. IF SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE FOR ISOLATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT CAN PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON ALONG WEAKENING FRONT...MID-LEVEL FLOW IN THE 35 TO 40 KT RANGE WOULD SUPPORT SOME UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION. THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN LOW PROBABILITY SEVERE THREAT OVER CENTRAL TX DURING THE DAY. SOMEWHAT GREATER COVERAGE OF CONVECTION MAY EVOLVE OVERNIGHT AS A MODEST SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET AND ASSOCIATED ENHANCEMENT OF WARM ADVECTION ARE EXPECTED TO EVOLVE. ALTHOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR SOME UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION...ONLY MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NWD INTO N TX / SERN OK / AR. THIS SUGGESTS THAT STORMS SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY WEAK...AND THUS ONLY A LOW-PROBABILITY THREAT FOR MARGINALLY-SEVERE HAIL APPEARS TO EXIST. ..GOSS.. 10/23/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Oct 24 07:33:05 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 24 Oct 2004 02:33:05 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200410240734.i9O7YRu13936@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 240732 SWODY2 SPC AC 240730 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0230 AM CDT SUN OCT 24 2004 VALID 251200Z - 261200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW HUM 40 SSW ESF 30 NW LFK 55 E JCT 35 SSE DRT ...CONT... 30 SW FHU 70 SW SOW 45 WNW GUP 20 ENE PGA 40 SSW P38 25 SW TPH 25 NNW U31 45 WSW ENV 25 N OGD 35 SE JAC 45 WSW GCC 25 SSE DGW 55 SW LAR 45 SSE GUC 20 NNE LVS 10 NNW DHT 50 SE GLD 25 SSE BBW 25 SSW SUX 35 WSW OTM 25 NE SGF 60 ENE PBF 30 WSW MEI 20 E PNS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNW 4BK 35 WSW MHS 35 NW SAC 30 WNW SFO. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... THE UPPER PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE LWR 48 ON MONDAY AS SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW OVER THE GULF OF AK DEEPENS UPON CONTINUING SE TOWARD THE ORE CST. THIS DEEPENING WILL OCCUR IN RESPONSE TO RIDGING DOWNSTREAM FROM STRONG SYSTEM NOW NEARING THE DATELINE... AND WILL ALLOW GULF OF MEXICO RIDGE TO BUILD N ACROSS THE SERN STATES. ELSEWHERE...A COMPARATIVELY WEAK DISTURBANCE NOW OFF THE CA CST WILL LIFT NEWD IN DEVELOPING SW FLOW OVER THE RCKYS. AT LWR LEVELS...BOUNDARY NOW DISSIPATING OVER S CNTRL AND SE TX SHOULD BEGIN TO EDGE NWD LATER TODAY...ALTHOUGH NWD MOTION WILL LIKELY BE RETARDED BY CONTINUED PRODUCTION OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW. BY MONDAY...WHATEVER IS LEFT OF THIS FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD REDEVELOP NWD INTO NRN OK/SRN KS...IN VICINITY OF STALLING COLD FRONT NOW DROPPING SE ACROSS THE WRN DAKOTAS. THE COMBINED BOUNDARIES WILL LIKELY LIFT NWD ACROSS THE CNTRL PLNS MONDAY NIGHT...AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE IMPULSE CROSSING THE RCKYS. ...SRN/CNTRL PLNS AND WRN OZARKS... WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK WARM FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE THE FOCUS FOR PERIODIC CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY TWO PERIOD OVER N TX. OTHER STORMS MAY FORM WITH DAYTIME HEATING ALONG LEE TROUGH/DRY LINE IN THE WRN PART OF THE STATE...WHERE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ENVIRONMENT MAY ALLOW MEAN MLCAPE TO RISE TO NEAR 1500 J/KG. SUFFICIENT /35-40 KT/ DEEP WSWLY SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT FOR ORGANIZED ACTIVITY. BUT RELATIVELY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES /MINUS 8 TO MINUS 9 C AT 500 MB/ SHOULD LIMIT THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL...AND ANY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN LOCALIZED. FARTHER N AND LATER IN THE PERIOD...SUSTAINED WARM ADVECTION AND SEASONABLY RICH MOISTURE INFLOW /850 MB DEWPOINTS AOA 12C/ DOWNSTREAM FROM SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE RCKYS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED STORMS FROM THE NRN OK N/NEWD INTO THE SRN NEB AND WRN PORTIONS OF THE OZARKS. AMPLE /40 KT/ CLOUD LAYER SHEAR WILL EXIST FOR ORGANIZED CELLS...AND MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE 3-4 DEGREES COOLER RELATIVE TO POINTS FARTHER S. THUS... SETUP MAY SUPPORT A FEW SUSTAINED STORMS WITH HAIL. UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EVENTUAL AXIS OF STRONGEST ELEVATED ASCENT AND QUESTIONS REGARDING DEGREE OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY SUGGEST THAT A CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK OF SEVERE IS UNWARRANTED ATTM. ..CORFIDI.. 10/24/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Oct 24 17:20:33 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 24 Oct 2004 12:20:33 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200410241721.i9OHLsu08544@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 241719 SWODY2 SPC AC 241718 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1218 PM CDT SUN OCT 24 2004 VALID 251200Z - 261200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WSW TUS 35 NNE PHX 15 N INW 30 WSW 4BL 15 ENE 4HV 10 ENE MLF 50 ESE ELY 30 W DPG 25 N OGD WRL 35 W REJ 45 NNE RAP 30 SSW MHN 25 W EAR 35 ENE RSL 40 NNE MHK 35 W LWD 30 SSE OTM 30 SSE UIN POF 35 SSW MEM 35 N MCB 25 SSW HEZ POE 30 NW LFK 25 ESE JCT 25 SSE DRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N CLM 40 WNW MFR 55 W RBL 10 NW SFO. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... SOME AMPLIFICATION OF LARGE-SCALE UPPER PATTERN IS FORECAST THIS PERIOD AS WRN TROUGH STRENGTHENS WHILE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXPANDS NWD ACROSS THE TN / OH VALLEYS. DESPITE THIS AMPLIFICATION...LITTLE EWD PROGRESSION OF OVERALL TROUGH / RIDGE PATTERN IS FORECAST. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAKENING FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY EWD / SEWD ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY / OZARKS / SRN PLAINS. ...W TX NEWD ACROSS THE RD RIVER INTO THE OZARKS... ALTHOUGH LARGE-SCALE HEIGHT RISES ARE FORECAST ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD...FAIRLY MOIST / UNSTABLE AIRMASS COMBINED WITH WEAK LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME SUGGESTS THAT A LIMITED SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS REGION THIS PERIOD. WEAKENING FRONT MOVING SEWD ACROSS THIS REGION MAY FOCUS ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON...AS LIMITED HEATING ALLOWS 500 TO 1500 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE TO EVOLVE AHEAD OF FRONT. ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT A SLIGHTLY MORE WIDESPREAD THREAT MAY EVOLVE ACROSS PARTS OF THE TRANSPECOS REGION OF W TX BY LATE AFTERNOON...AS MODELS SUGGEST THAT A WEAK SRN STREAM SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVES NNEWD INTO THIS REGION OUT OF NRN MEXICO. OVERNIGHT...THIS CONVECTION SHOULD EXPAND NEWD ACROSS TX INTO OK...WHILE OTHER / MAINLY ELEVATED STORMS EVOLVE AS WEAK LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AFTER DARK. IN ADDITION TO FAIRLY WEAK LARGE-SCALE FORCING ACROSS THIS REGION...ANOTHER LIMITING FACTOR IN TERMS OF SEVERE THREAT OVER MOST OF THE REGION WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK DEEP-LAYER FLOW. MOST FAVORABLE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE ACROSS PARTS OF W TX AS UPPER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES...WITH STRONGER WIND FIELD SPREADING NNEWD TOWARD SWRN OK LATE. PARTS OF THE WRN HALF OF TX MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO SLIGHT RISK IN LATER FORECASTS IF MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH APPROACHING SRN STREAM FEATURE. OTHERWISE...IT APPEARS ATTM THAT ONLY A LIMITED SEVERE THREAT EXISTS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THIS REGION. ..GOSS.. 10/24/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Oct 25 07:32:30 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 25 Oct 2004 02:32:30 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200410250733.i9P7Xnu26903@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 250731 SWODY2 SPC AC 250730 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0230 AM CDT MON OCT 25 2004 VALID 261200Z - 271200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM BVE 35 NW GPT 10 WSW JAN 30 ESE HOT 35 N PRX 20 NE FTW 10 SE BWD 20 WNW JCT 50 SSE DRT ...CONT... 65 ESE DUG 40 NNW SVC 15 S GNT 20 NNE 4SL 35 N LVS 20 SE TCC 25 SSW AMA 50 WSW GAG 25 ENE LBL 55 SW HLC 25 WSW BBW 20 S HON 20 WNW AXN 50 ENE STC 40 ESE EAU 25 SSE RFD 25 ENE BMG 45 NW CSV 20 S ANB 30 SSE PNS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 S OTH 50 SSW RDM 15 ESE BNO 40 SE OWY 25 NW CDC 45 S IGM 25 SE IPL. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS NOAM ON TUESDAY. ONE BAND OF WLYS WILL EXTEND FROM W TO E ACROSS CNTRL CANADA...WHILE THE SRN BRANCH WILL CURVE AROUND CLOSED LOW NOW DEEPENING OFF THE BC CST. THE LOW SHOULD REDEVELOP SSE DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HRS...AND SHOULD BE CENTERED NEAR RNO BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. DOWNSTREAM FROM THE LOW...FURTHER AMPLIFICATION OF GULF RIDGE APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS THE SERN STATES. AT LWR LEVELS...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH E PACIFIC LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY SE ACROSS THE CNTRL PART OF CA DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY... AND SHOULD REACH THE LAX AREA TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. A COOL...UNSTABLE CYCLONIC REGIME WILL PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. E OF THE RCKYS...WARM FRONT THAT WILL DEVELOP/STRENGTHEN OVER THE SRN/CNTRL PLNS LATER TODAY SHOULD CONTINUE NE INTO THE MID VLY BY 12Z WEDNESDAY AS HEIGHTS RISE ACROSS THE GULF CST/LWR MS VLY. A REINFORCING SURGE OF COOL AIR...ASSOCIATED WITH SRN STREAM IMPULSE NOW OVER NV...MAY RETARD NWD MOTION OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS NEB/NRN KS. ...CNTRL CA... CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW BENEATH DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH...MODEST SURFACE HEATING AND VERY COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES /AOB MINUS 25 C AT 500 MB/ WILL LIKELY SUPPORT SCATTERED...DIURNALLY-ENHANCED POST-FRONTAL CONVECTION OVER PARTS OF NRN CA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GIVEN LOW FREEZING LEVELS...SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY OCCUR...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. FARTHER S...IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE SE-MOVING COLD FRONT...MORE CLOUDINESS WILL LIKELY EXIST THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...THE MEAN 700-500 MB FLOW IN THIS REGION LIKELY EXCEED 40 KTS FROM SFO SWD TO AROUND LAX AND EWD INTO THE CNTRL VLY. THUS...THREAT WILL EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS IF DEEP SUSTAINED CONVECTION DOES INDEED DEVELOP ALONG FRONTAL BAND. BUT WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT /RELATIVE TO POINTS FARTHER N/ AND MORE ABUNDANT CLOUDS LIMITING LOW LEVEL DESTABILIZATION...A CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK OF SEVERE APPEARS UNWARRANTED ATTM. IN ADDITION...UPPER SYSTEM MAY TEND TO MOVE PARALLEL TO THE CST DURING MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS RIDGE BUILDS UPSTREAM OVER THE NE PACIFIC. THIS WILL TEND TO LIMIT COOLING ALOFT AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT OVER TOPOGRAPHICALLY FAVORED AREAS FOR SUPERCELLS OVER THE CNTRL VLY. ...CNTRL PLNS/MID MS VLY... SETUP WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR THE PERIODIC DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED STORM CLUSTERS IN AREA OF PERSISTENT WARM ADVECTION/MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVER ERN PARTS OF THE CNTRL PLNS. THE DEGREE OF ELEVATED CAPE DOES NOT APPEAR SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SIGNIFICANT SEVERE HAIL...ALTHOUGH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST/MOST PERSISTENT STORMS. A BIT FARTHER S...AN AREA OF STRONG SURFACE-BASED STORMS MAY MOVE/DEVELOP E/NE ALONG PORTION OF WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM ERN OK INTO AR AND NRN MS/W TN. SURFACE HEATING ALONG THIS CORRIDOR...IN CONJUNCTION WITH SEASONABLY RICH GULF MOISTURE INFLOW...MAY BOOST MEAN MLCAPE TO 1500 J/KG. BAND OF 40 KT WSWLY MID LEVEL FLOW ON PERIPHERY OF GULF RIDGE WILL SUPPLY SUFFICIENT DEEP SHEAR FOR STORM ORGANIZATION...BUT ABSENCE OF A WELL-DEFINED SRN STREAM DISTURBANCE SHOULD LESSEN THREAT FOR SUSTAINED SEVERE STORMS. ..CORFIDI.. 10/25/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Oct 25 17:26:37 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 25 Oct 2004 12:26:37 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200410251727.i9PHRtu21023@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 251725 SWODY2 SPC AC 251724 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1224 PM CDT MON OCT 25 2004 VALID 261200Z - 271200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM BVE 35 NW GPT 25 SE GLH 30 ESE HOT 35 N PRX 20 NE FTW 25 ENE BWD 15 E JCT 50 NW LRD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 WSW TUS 45 SSW PRC 50 E LAS 30 SSE DRA 40 ESE NID 35 SSW RAL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE ONP 55 SSW RDM 45 E BNO 25 E BYI 15 NNE GJT 20 SE ALS 35 SE RTN 35 WSW EHA 50 E LAA 30 E AKO 30 ESE CDR 45 S PHP 20 W YKN 20 WNW OTG 25 N RWF 35 N MSP 25 ENE EAU 10 NNW MKE 20 ENE BMG 20 WSW CSV 30 NE ANB 25 S CEW. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...MID MS VALLEY... DOMINANT UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BUILD NWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE DAY2 PERIOD. BENEATH THE UPPER RIDGE THE ONLY PROSPECT FOR SIGNIFICANT DESTABILIZATION/ASCENT WILL OCCUR ALONG THE RETREATING WARM FRONT FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY REGION. EVEN SO...IT APPEARS WEAK LAPSE RATES DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION WILL LIMIT THE INSTABILITY WITHIN ZONE WHERE SUSTAINED DEEP CONVECTION HAS A REASONABLE HOPE OF INTENSIFYING. LATEST THINKING IS WEAK LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO SPREAD/DEVELOP NEWD FROM OK INTO MO EARLY IN THE PERIOD. WITHIN AN EXPANDING ZONE OF CONVECTION THERE MAY BE EMBEDDED STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED HAIL OR PERHAPS A WIND GUST. ...CA... DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG SWD ALONG THE WEST COAST AS SPEED MAX ROTATES INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH...THEN TOWARD SRN CA COAST LATE IN THE PERIOD. GIVEN THE STRONG SWD MOVEMENT OF THIS FEATURE...SFC TROUGHING AND FOCUSED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAY REMAIN ALONG THE COAST UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD STEEPEN ENOUGH...ROUGHLY 7C/KM...TO ENHANCE INSTABILITY INLAND WHERE SELY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL BE MAINTAINED. ANY STORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP IN THE VALLEY WILL EVOLVE WITHIN A FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR STORM ROTATION. HAIL APPEARS THE PRIMARY THEAT IF ACTIVITY CAN ORGANIZE. ..DARROW.. 10/25/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Oct 26 07:30:59 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 26 Oct 2004 02:30:59 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200410260732.i9Q7WFu28163@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 260729 SWODY2 SPC AC 260728 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0228 AM CDT TUE OCT 26 2004 VALID 271200Z - 281200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NW INL 40 W AXN 20 E YKN 50 ESE OMA 35 NW UIN 30 E MMO 25 W CMH ROA 35 SE AND 10 NW LGC 15 SSE MSL 30 WNW PBF 25 ENE DAL 45 NNE JCT DRT ...CONT... 20 WSW DUG 20 SSW SAD 40 S SOW 55 SSW INW 35 WNW PHX 65 SE YUM ...CONT... 10 WSW SFO 45 NE MER 45 SSW U31 10 NE EKO 55 NNW SUN 40 E DLN 20 SSE RIW 50 W EGE 35 SW GUC 15 NE ALS 40 NE PUB 20 E BFF 60 N PHP 55 NNW MOT. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... AMPLIFIED WRN TROUGH/ERN RIDGE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER NOAM ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SPLIT PERSISTING ALONG THE BC CST. DEEPENING LOW NOW DROPPING SSE OFF THE ORE/NRN CA CST SHOULD BE CENTERED NEAR SFO/SAC AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. STRENGTH AND MOTION OF UPSTREAM TROUGH NOW APPROACHING WRN AK SUGGEST THAT CA SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY SE ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SOME ADDITIONAL DEEPENING POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE...GULF OF MEXICO RIDGE EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUASISTATIONARY...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY. AT LWR LEVELS...SURFACE WARM FRONT NOW DEVELOPING OVER KS/MO SHOULD CONTINUE TO EDGE NWD/EWD ON WEDNESDAY AS LEE TROUGH SLOWLY DEEPENS OVER THE CNTRL AND NRN HI PLNS. MODERATE S TO SWLY FLOW S OF THE BOUNDARY WILL ALLOW UNSEASONABLY WARM/MOIST AIR TO SPREAD N ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE PLNS. ...CNTRL AND SRN CA... COOL CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER CNTRL AND SRN CA ON WEDNESDAY...N OF 80 KT JET MAX ROUNDING BASE OF DEEP UPPER LOW. THE MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL LIKELY HAVE CLEARED ALL BUT THE EXTREME SE CORNER BY MID AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE HEATING/LOW LEVEL DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR OVER THE LAX BASIN NWD INTO THE SRN HALF OF THE CNTRL VLY. GIVEN COLD TEMPERATURES AT MID LEVELS /AOB -20 C AT 500 MB/... SETUP SHOULD SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED DIURNALLY-ENHANCED STORMS. DEVELOPMENT WILL PROBABLY BE MOST CONCENTRATED IN THE LAX AREA...WHERE MODERATE MARITIME SWLY FLOW WILL MOST STRONGLY IMPINGE ON THE CSTL MTNS. LOW FREEZING LEVELS /AROUND 800 MB/ AND LINGERING LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT MAY YIELD A FEW SUSTAINED STORMS WITH HAIL. THE POTENTIAL WILL ALSO EXIST FOR A FEW LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS...AS PROXIMITY OF UPPER JET WILL MAINTAIN CLOUD-LAYER SHEAR VALUES AOA 35-40 KTS. ATTM...HOWEVER ...IT APPEARS THAT THE MOST FAVORABLE SETUP FOR SUSTAINED SEVERE ACTIVITY MAY REMAIN OFFSHORE...CLOSER TO BASE OF ELONGATING UPPER TROUGH. ...CNTRL PLNS/MID MS VLY... SETUP WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SCATTERED ELEVATED STORMS/ STORM CLUSTERS IN AREA OF PERSISTENT WARM ADVECTION/MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL PLNS/MID MS VLY. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD SHIFT NWD/EWD WITH TIME AS GULF RIDGE CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY. FARTHER S...AN ARC OF SCATTERED SURFACE-BASED ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY PERSIST FROM W TX E/NE INTO WRN/NRN OK...SE KS AND NRN AR/SRN MO. QUALITY OF MOISTURE INFLOW /850 MB DEWPOINTS AOA 12C/ AND STRENGTH OF CLOUD LAYER SHEAR /AROUND 30 KTS/ ONCE AGAIN SUGGEST THAT AT LEAST A LIMITED THREAT WILL EXIST FOR A FEW SUSTAINED STORMS...AND ONE OR TWO WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND/HAIL. BUT ABSENCE OF A STRONG SRN STREAM DISTURBANCE TO FOCUS LARGE SCALE ASCENT...DEEP MOIST PROFILES AND RELATIVELY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES SHOULD MINIMIZE THREAT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE. ..CORFIDI.. 10/26/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Oct 26 17:22:32 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 26 Oct 2004 12:22:32 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200410261723.i9QHNku30235@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 261721 SWODY2 SPC AC 261720 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1220 PM CDT TUE OCT 26 2004 VALID 271200Z - 281200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NW INL AXN 25 ENE OTG 20 ESE IRK 25 NW MDH 15 W EVV 30 NW LUK UNI SSU 30 W GSO 45 NNW AGS 40 SSE ATL 15 WNW ANB 15 SSE MSL 30 WNW PBF 25 ENE DAL 45 NNE JCT DRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WSW SFO 40 N RNO 50 N BAM 15 E OWY 25 WNW SUN 30 SSE 27U 30 N WEY 20 SW COD 20 SSE RIW 20 NNW CAG 10 SSW ASE 60 W PUB 30 E COS 35 E CYS 55 WSW RAP 35 N REJ 65 NW MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSE FHU 50 W SAD 60 SW SOW 55 NNE PHX 35 WNW PHX 65 SE YUM. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...ALTHOUGH WRN U.S. UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INLAND WHILE A SLIGHT EWD SHIFT TO THE RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED OVER THE MS VALLEY. THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR EPISODIC WARM ADVECTION EVENTS ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT NOT PARTICULARLY UNSTABLE OR FOCUSED FOR DEEP CONVERGENCE. ...CENTRAL PLAINS... EWD SHIFT TO UPPER RIDGE WILL ALLOW SFC WARM FRONT TO RETREAT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY REGION ALLOWING MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER TO RETURN TO MUCH OF KS/MO. DESPITE THIS MOISTENING PROCESS...IT APPEARS THUNDERSTORMS MAY STRUGGLE TO ORGANIZE ALONG/SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT DUE TO THE LACK OF STRONG HEATING/FORCING. THIS WILL LIMIT MUCH OF THE CONVECTION TO AREAS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY ATOP COOLER AIRMASS WITHIN WARM ADVECTION ZONE. WITH MARGINAL LAPSE RATES IT DOES NOT APPEAR NRN CONVECTION WILL PROVE TERRIBLY EFFICIENT IN GENERATING HAIL...ALTHOUGH ANY WARM SECTOR STORMS THAT DEVELOP MAY PERHAPS GENERATE A WIND GUST OR SOME HAIL...ESPECIALLY IF ACTIVITY CAN EVOLVE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON WHEN THE INSTABILITY MAY BE SOMEWHAT HIGHER. ...SRN CA... STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT ACROSS SRN CA DURING THE DAY2 PERIOD ALLOWING SFC FRONT TO MOVE INLAND TOWARD THE SWRN DESERT REGION. STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND THE INLAND SURGE OF MARINE AIR MAY PROVE SUFFICIENT IN GENERATING ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WITHIN THE POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. ..DARROW.. 10/26/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Oct 27 07:32:30 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 27 Oct 2004 02:32:30 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200410270733.i9R7Xgu06308@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 270731 SWODY2 SPC AC 270730 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0230 AM CDT WED OCT 27 2004 VALID 281200Z - 291200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 95 NE APN 30 NNW MTC 20 NE CMH 15 ESE CRW 40 NE HKY CAE 25 NE SSI 35 E VLD 25 WNW ABY 35 ENE 0A8 10 NNW UOX 15 SE HOT 45 E DAL 60 NW AUS 65 WSW COT ...CONT... 30 SE YUM 50 W GCN 15 ESE ELY 15 SW WMC 85 NNW WMC 55 E BNO 40 W 27U 20 NW BZN 20 SSW BIL 40 SSW MLS 35 ESE GDV 65 NNW MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WSW MRF 55 N HOB AMA 45 N GAG 25 S RSL 45 NNE HLC 20 WNW GLD 20 N LHX 40 SE RTN 40 ESE ONM 45 SSW DMN. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ..SYNOPSIS... STRONG CLOSED LOW NOW NEARING SFO SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN MORE EWD LATER TODAY...AND REACH THE CA/NV BORDER AREA NEAR BIH BY 12Z THURSDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY ACCELERATE ENE ACROSS THE GRT BASIN LATER THURSDAY AND REACH THE CNTRL RCKYS/HI PLNS BY 12Z FRIDAY AS BROAD SWATH OF WLY FLOW PROGRESSES FROM THE DATELINE REGION TO THE NE PACIFIC. THE ECMWF REMAINS THE SLOWEST IN ITS HANDLING OF THE CA SYSTEM RELATIVE TO THE ETA AND GFS AND IS PREFERRED AS SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW SHORTWAVE IMPULSES STILL MOVING SWD ON W SIDE OF MAIN LOW. ...ERN UT/NRN AZ TO CNTRL RCKYS... A BROKEN LINE OF FORCED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH EJECTING SRN CA VORT ON THURSDAY AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES FROM CNTRL UT/WRN AZ ENE INTO CO/SW WY. COMPARATIVELY LIMITED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH STRONGLY-BACKED UPPER FLOW WILL LIKELY KEEP MEAN MLCAPE BELOW 500 J/KG. IN ADDITION...LOWER TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES WILL PROBABLY BE ONLY MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTIVE DOWNDRAFT DEVELOPMENT. BUT COMBINATION OF STRONG FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING FOR ASCENT...40-50 KT MEAN WIND SWLY FLOW AND RELATIVELY WARM PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED BOWING SEGMENTS WITH HIGH WIND...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ...NRN PLNS/UPR MS VLY... LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION/MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY OVER WRN PORTIONS OF THE NRN PLNS LATER IN THE PERIOD...AT ABOUT THE SAME TIME THAT HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH EJECTING SHORTWAVE BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD REGION. BACKING OF MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM FROM DISTURBANCE WILL TEND TO MAKE CLOUD LAYER WIND PROFILES MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL AND WEAKEN MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. BUT STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT IN EXIT REGION OF 90 KT UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX SUGGESTS THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP EARLY FRIDAY OVER PARTS OF WRN/NRN NEB...SD AND PERHAPS SRN ND...DESPITE SOMEWHAT LIMITED AND ELEVATED NATURE OF MOISTURE INFLOW. STRENGTH OF CLOUD LAYER SHEAR /AROUND 40 KTS/ MAY SUPPORT A THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE WIND/MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. FARTHER E...A FEW CLUSTERS OF ELEVATED STORMS MAY AFFECT PARTS OF MN/WI AND IA THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...IN REGION OF STRONGEST 850 MB WARM ADVECTION/MOISTURE TRANSPORT DOWNSTREAM FROM EJECTING UPPER TROUGH. WITH 850 MB DEWPOINTS RISING TO AOA 12C...SUFFICIENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP TO YIELD A FEW CELLS WITH SEVERE HAIL...DESPITE WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES. ..CORFIDI.. 10/27/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Oct 27 17:33:32 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 27 Oct 2004 12:33:32 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200410271734.i9RHYgu06252@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 271732 SWODY2 SPC AC 271731 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1231 PM CDT WED OCT 27 2004 VALID 281200Z - 291200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 E ANJ 30 NNW MTC 20 NE CMH 15 ESE CRW 40 NE HKY CAE 25 NE SSI 30 SSE JAX 50 SSE CTY ...CONT... 30 ESE GPT 10 SW LUL 30 SSW GWO 40 E LIT 60 N HOT 25 WSW PGO 35 NNW TYR 50 NE CLL 15 WSW GLS ...CONT... 50 S CRP 10 NW SAT 35 SE JCT 40 SW JCT DRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW PUB RTN 20 SSE LVS TCC 30 SSW EHA 55 NE GCK 20 NW GRI 60 NW OFK 45 NE ANW 30 W VTN 10 NNW AIA 30 ESE CYS 30 SSE DEN 15 SW PUB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE YUM 50 W GCN 15 ESE ELY 15 SW WMC 85 NNW WMC 55 E BNO 40 W 27U 20 WSW BZN 35 WNW SHR 25 WSW 4BQ 50 NE 4BQ 55 N ISN. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...NRN PLAINS... EXIT REGION OF UPPER SPEED MAX WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE CNTRL ROCKIES INTO THE NRN PLAINS LATE IN THE DAY2 PERIOD. LARGE SCALE ASCENT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE WILL AID SFC CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS REGION JUST SOUTH OF THE BLACK HILLS. LOW CENTER WILL THEN MOVE NEWD ALONG TIGHTENING BAROCLINIC ZONE TOWARD SERN SD AFTER MIDNIGHT. IN ADVANCE OF UPPER SPEED MAX...INCREASING LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY WILL UNDOUBTEDLY AID ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF MN INTO WRN WI. A FEW STORMS ACROSS THIS REGION MAY GENERATE SOME HAIL...OR PERHAPS STRONG WINDS WITH NEAR SFC-BASED CONVECTION ALONG RETREATING WARM FRONT. ...SRN/CNTRL PLAINS... HIGH PLAINS CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE NEB PANHANDLE WILL ENHANCE LEE TROUGHING ACROSS WRN KS INTO THE TX PANHANDLE IN ADVANCE OF UPPER TROUGH. THIS SHOULD AID BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING FROM ERN NM INTO SWRN KS BY LATE AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. ONE ARGUMENT AGAINST A SLIGHT RISK ACROSS THIS REGION IS THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT FORCING/CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LEE TROUGH. IT APPEARS ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL REMAIN ISOLATED AND POSSIBLY SHORT-LIVED...ALTHOUGH A FEW MAY PRODUCE HAIL OR STRONG WINDS. ..DARROW.. 10/27/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Oct 28 07:35:29 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 28 Oct 2004 02:35:29 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200410280736.i9S7abu03958@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 280733 SWODY2 SPC AC 280732 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0232 AM CDT THU OCT 28 2004 VALID 291200Z - 301200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ENE PLN 15 E MBS 20 NW ARB 35 ENE FWA 15 ENE IND 65 N LIT 35 ENE PGO 10 W MLC 15 SW TUL 10 SSE MKC 20 ENE DSM 25 NNE FOD 10 E OTG 30 NW RWF 15 ENE AXN 25 ENE DLH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SE JAX 10 W CTY 25 ENE AQQ 10 SE TOI 40 S BNA 30 E MKL 55 NNE GLH 50 NNW HOU 15 WNW LRD ...CONT... 75 SSW P07 35 WSW ABI 30 N FSI 30 WSW TOP 30 SSE OMA 40 ESE OFK 15 N BUB 45 NNE VTN 35 ENE PIR 20 E FAR 35 E INL ...CONT... 30 NNW PBG 30 WNW MSV 30 SE MRB 10 S DAN 25 E CHS. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES SSWWD TO THE ERN OK/NW AR AREA.... ...SYNOPSIS... THE DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER CA/NV WILL EJECT ENEWD OVER THE PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY BY TOMORROW NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING ESEWD TOWARD THE PAC NW FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA. A SURFACE LOW INVOF NE NEB/SE SD EARLY IN THE PERIOD IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ENEWD TOWARD UPPER MI WHILE A TRAILING COLD FRONT AND REMNANT LEE TROUGH MOVE EWD ACROSS THE ERN PLAINS DURING THE DAY AND THE MID MS VALLEY LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE PRIMARY THUNDERSTORM THREAT AREAS WILL BE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MS VALLEY REGION. ...MS VALLEY REGION... A BROAD/RELATIVELY MOIST WARM SECTOR IS ALREADY ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE GULF STATES AND AS FAR N AS KS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. THIS MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NWD TODAY AND TOMORROW...RESULTING IN A MOIST/UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR TOMORROW FROM THE GREAT LAKES SWD TO THE GULF COAST. WITH MLCAPE VALUES EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 1000-2000 J/KG TOMORROW AFTERNOON IN CONJUNCTION WITH ROUGHLY 50 KT SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR...THERE WILL BE A BROAD AREA WITH AT LEAST SOME THREAT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS. THE MORE PROBABLE AREA FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE IMMEDIATELY IN ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE WI AREA...WHERE INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS/BOWING SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND POSSIBLY A FEW TORNADOES. FARTHER S...A FEW SEVERE STORMS SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING NEAR THE SURFACE COLD FRONT FROM ERN OK INTO MO. INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS THIS AREA...ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING WHEN LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT WILL SPREAD EWD OVERNIGHT...WITH THE SEVERE THREAT LIKELY TO GRADUALLY DECREASE AS INSTABILITY DIMINISHES. ..THOMPSON.. 10/28/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Oct 28 17:24:07 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 28 Oct 2004 12:24:07 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200410281725.i9SHPDu27327@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 281721 SWODY2 SPC AC 281720 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1220 PM CDT THU OCT 28 2004 VALID 291200Z - 301200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ENE ANJ 15 E MBS 20 NW ARB 35 ENE FWA 15 ENE IND 65 N LIT 35 ENE PGO 10 W MLC 15 SW TUL 10 SSE MKC 20 ENE DSM 25 NNE FOD 20 NNE OTG 55 NW RWF 15 ENE AXN 25 ENE DLH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MSS 20 SE MSV 35 SSE CXY 10 S DAN 25 E CHS ...CONT... 45 SE JAX 10 W CTY 25 ENE AQQ 10 SE TOI 40 S BNA 30 E MKL 55 NNE GLH 50 NNW HOU 15 WNW LRD ...CONT... 75 SSW P07 35 WSW ABI 30 N FSI 30 WSW TOP 30 SSE OMA 40 ESE OFK ANW 20 SW PHP 40 SE Y22 30 SSE GFK 15 E INL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES SWD THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... VIGOROUS...MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN THIS MORNING IS FORECAST TO TRANSLATE ENEWD THROUGH THE CNTRL ROCKIES AND INTO THE MID MO VALLEY BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW INITIALLY OVER N-CNTRL NEB/S-CNTRL SD WILL DEEPEN OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY AS IT CONCURRENTLY DEVELOPS NEWD ALONG RETREATING WARM FRONT INTO SRN MN BY EARLY EVENING. MEANWHILE...TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS AND WILL LIKELY EXTEND FROM SURFACE LOW SWD THROUGH CNTRL IA AND THEN SWWD INTO NERN OK BY 30/00Z. ...UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES SWD THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY... MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES WARM FRONT SLOWLY LIFTING NWD THROUGH THE MID MO/MS RIVER VALLEYS WITH 60 F DEWPOINTS NOW AS FAR N AS N-CNTRL/NERN NEB. INCREASING HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND ACCOMPANYING 70-80 KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK WILL EXPEDITE NWD ADVECTION OF THIS MOISTURE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/UPPER MS VALLEY TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WHEN COUPLED WITH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ON CYCLONIC SIDE OF JET AXIS...IT APPEARS THAT STRONGEST AFTERNOON INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP FROM VICINITY OF WARM FRONT OVER PORTIONS OF SERN MN/WI SWD INTO PORTIONS OF ERN IA AND NRN IL WHERE MLCAPES MAY APPROACH 1000-2000 J/KG. FARTHER S...WEAKER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LARGELY LIMIT MLCAPES TO 500-1000 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF MO INTO ERN OK/AR DESPITE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. INCREASED LARGE-SCALE FORCING ACROSS WARM SECTOR IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE/INTENSITY BY LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FROM SURFACE LOW ENEWD ALONG WARM FRONT. HERE...VERY FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN 50-60 KTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. ADDITIONALLY...POTENTIAL FOR A FEW TORNADOES WILL ALSO EXIST WITHIN THIS REGION OF LOCALLY ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND MOIST LOW-LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS. ONCE FINER-SCALE DETAILS OF EVENT BECOME MORE CLEAR...A CATEGORICAL UPGRADE TO MODERATE RISK MAY BE REQUIRED ACROSS CURRENT HIGHER PROBABILITY AREA. ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL ALSO LIKELY OCCUR BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SWD ALONG TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO PORTIONS OF ERN OK/AR AS SUSTAINED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SLOWLY ERODES CAP. PRIMARY CONVECTIVE MODE APPEARS BE LINEAR GIVEN DEEP FORCING ALONG FRONT. HOWEVER...STRONG LOW AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OBSERVED IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS FRIDAY EVENING SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. ..MEAD.. 10/28/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Oct 29 07:29:40 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 29 Oct 2004 02:29:40 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200410290730.i9T7Uhu17564@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 290728 SWODY2 SPC AC 290727 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0227 AM CDT FRI OCT 29 2004 VALID 301200Z - 311200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WNW HVR 50 NNE 3DU 50 WSW MSO 25 N ALW 50 W YKM 30 NW AST. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 WNW MRF 10 SSE GDP 15 NW HOB 50 WSW LBB 35 SW CDS 30 WNW ADM 55 NE LIT 35 NW HOP 15 WSW BMG 10 ESE SBN 35 WSW MBL 70 ENE MQT ...CONT... 35 S ACY 10 NE GSO 30 NNW AHN 30 SSE MEI 20 SE 7R4. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... A DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH...NOW OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...WILL EJECT ENEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MID/UPPER MS VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT...AND CONTINUE ENEWD OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY BY TOMORROW NIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP ENEWD IN ADVANCE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH...FROM UPPER MI TOWARD SRN QUEBEC. FARTHER W...A BROAD NRN STREAM TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY OVER THE NRN ROCKIES...WHILE A SEPARATE SRN STREAM WAVE APPROACHES THE BIG BEND AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE PRIMARY THUNDERSTORM THREAT AREAS WILL BE IN ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT ACROSS THE ERN GREAT LAKES AREA DURING THE DAY...AND ACROSS CENTRAL/N TX LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH A DEVELOPING WAA PATTERN. ...ERN GREAT LAKES/UPPER OH VALLEY REGION... BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S SHOULD SPREAD NEWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY/PA/NY IN ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT...WHILE STRONG WIND FIELDS AND ASSOCIATED VERTICAL SPEED SHEAR ALSO ACCOMPANY THE WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER...POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL TEND TO LIMIT WARM SECTOR INSTABILITY. ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS...BUT THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT MAY TEND TO BE LIMITED BY WEAK INSTABILITY. ..THOMPSON.. 10/29/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Oct 29 16:32:29 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 29 Oct 2004 11:32:29 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200410291633.i9TGXVu22253@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 291627 SWODY2 SPC AC 291626 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1126 AM CDT FRI OCT 29 2004 VALID 301200Z - 311200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW SYR 15 E PSB 35 E MGW 40 WNW EKN 10 ENE UNI 25 SSE MFD 20 WNW CLE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WNW HVR 50 NNE 3DU 50 WSW MSO 25 N ALW 50 W YKM 30 NW AST. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S ACY 10 NE GSO 30 NNW AHN 30 SSE MEI 20 SE 7R4 ...CONT... 25 SE ELP 25 N GDP 30 WNW HOB 30 WSW LBB 25 SE CDS 30 WNW ADM 55 NE LIT 35 NW HOP 15 WSW BMG 10 ESE SBN 35 WSW MBL 70 ENE MQT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE UPPER OH VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... VIGOROUS...MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS WILL EJECT ENEWD FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY SATURDAY MORNING INTO SERN ONTARIO BY SATURDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...LOW ATTENDANT TO THIS SYSTEM INITIALLY OVER NRN WI/SRN L.S. WILL UNDERGO OCCLUSION AND SLOWLY FILL WHILE DEVELOPING NEWD INTO WRN QUEBEC. TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH RAPIDLY EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY AND INTO THE NERN STATES DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SRN EXTENSION OF THIS BOUNDARY...BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS CNTRL TX WILL BEGIN TO RETREAT NWD AS A WARM FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS NRN MEXICO. ...UPPER OH VALLEY... A MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF COLD FRONT SWEEPING EWD ACROSS THE REGION. DESPITE THIS MOISTURE...CONVECTIVELY PROCESSED LAPSE RATES WILL TEND TO LIMIT AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR. SLIGHTLY STRONGER INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP WITHIN REGION OF STRONGER LARGE-SCALE FORCING DOWNSTREAM FROM EJECTING UPPER LOW OVER THE UPPER OH VALLEY WHERE MLCAPES MAY APPROACH 1000 J/KG. EXPECT TSTMS TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY THROUGH THE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON WITHIN DEEPLY FORCED REGION ALONG SURGING COLD FRONT FROM THE MIDDLE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY EWD INTO PORTIONS OF WRN/CNTRL NY/PA. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF 75-85 KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK ACCOMPANYING UPPER LOW ACROSS THE OH VALLEY...MORE THAN SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SPEED SHEAR WILL EXIST TO SUPPORT BOWING/LEWP STRUCTURES EMBEDDED WITHIN LARGER LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM. EXPECT GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER THREAT /LIKELY IN THE FORM OF DAMAGING WINDS/ TO BE ACROSS THE UPPER OH VALLEY WHERE SLIGHTLY GREATER INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT MORE VIGOROUS UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT. ...TX... POTENTIAL FOR AN ELEVATED STRONG TSTM OR TWO IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITHIN DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME DOWNSTREAM FROM UPPER SYSTEM TRANSLATING ACROSS NRN MEXICO. THOUGH SOME SMALL HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST CELLS...IT APPEARS THE WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT ANY SEVERE THREAT. ..MEAD.. 10/29/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Oct 30 07:35:02 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 30 Oct 2004 02:35:02 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200410300736.i9U7a3V18365@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 300731 SWODY2 SPC AC 300730 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0230 AM CDT SAT OCT 30 2004 VALID 311200Z - 011200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE ELP 35 NE ROW 35 NNW AMA 35 ESE SLN 45 N SZL 25 NE BLV 20 WSW BWG 20 NNE CHA 30 NNE ATL 25 NE CSG SEM 25 S MEI 35 ESE MCB 35 SSW HUM. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... THE MID LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE UPPER MS VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE E OF NEW ENGLAND EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WHILE ANOTHER TROUGH AMPLIFIES SEWD OVER THE SRN ROCKIES. AS THE TROUGH DIGS OVER THE SRN ROCKIES...A SRN STREAM WAVE /NOW JUST OFF THE SRN CA AND NRN BAJA COASTS/ WILL EJECT NEWD FROM NRN MEXICO TO NW TX AND OK. WEAK CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED ACROSS N TX/OK IN ADVANCE OF THE EJECTING TROUGH FROM MEXICO...ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH EXITING NEW ENGLAND. THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. ...TX AREA... WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BY EARLY SUNDAY IN A BAND NEAR AND JUST N OF RETREATING WARM FRONT ACROSS N TX AND SRN OK WITHIN A MOIST WAA REGIME. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY WHILE SPREADING NEWD TOWARD MO. LAPSE RATES IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS TX WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STEEP...AND THE EFFECTS OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL TEND TO LIMIT INSTABILITY SOMEWHAT. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT A FEW EMBEDDED STORMS WITH SUPERCELL AND/OR BOW ECHO STRUCTURES MAY OCCUR WITHIN THE LARGER CONVECTIVE BAND FROM SW/CENTRAL TX NEWD TO SE OK...BUT THAT THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT WILL BE TOO MARGINAL TO JUSTIFY A SLIGHT RISK THIS FAR IN ADVANCE. IF A CORRIDOR OF SOMEWHAT GREATER INSTABILITY CAN BE IDENTIFIED ALONG THE FRINGE OF THE CONVECTIVE BAND...THEN SOME PART OF THE 5% SEVERE AREA MAY BE UPGRADED TO SLIGHT RISK IN LATER UPDATES. ..THOMPSON.. 10/30/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Oct 30 16:16:49 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 30 Oct 2004 11:16:49 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200410301617.i9UGHlV06889@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 301610 SWODY2 SPC AC 301609 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1109 AM CDT SAT OCT 30 2004 VALID 311200Z - 011200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE ELP 35 NE ROW 35 NNW AMA 35 ESE SLN 45 SW IRK 45 NNW SLO 30 ESE OWB 20 NNE CHA 30 NNE ATL 25 NE CSG SEM 25 S MEI 35 ESE MCB 35 SSW HUM. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... PHASING OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC NW AND OFF THE SRN CA COAST IS FORECAST ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT WITH FULL-LATITUDE TROUGH EVOLVING OVER THE ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS REGION. AT THE SURFACE...BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE PACIFIC NW INTO THE PLAINS AND NWD RETURN OF MODIFIED MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS NWD ACROSS THE SRN/CNTRL LOW PLAINS WILL ENHANCE BAROCLINICITY ALONG FRONTAL ZONE FROM WRN TX INTO THE MID MS VALLEY REGION BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. ...TX/OK... CURRENT MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS /I.E. DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S/ IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF CNTRL/SRN TX. THIS MOISTURE COUPLED WITH A NOCTURNAL STRENGTHENING OF LLJ WILL LEAD TO A FAIRLY LARGE AREA OF TSTMS WITHIN WAA REGIME ALONG/N OF RETREATING WARM FRONT INITIALLY FROM PORTIONS OF SWRN TX ENEWD ACROSS N TX/OK INTO AR. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WHILE GRADUALLY MOVING/DEVELOPING NEWD TOWARD THE MID MS VALLEY. EXPECT ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR LATER IN THE DAY OVER PORTIONS OF SWRN/W-CNTRL TX NEWD INTO SRN OK AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING MID-LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD WARM SECTOR. DESPITE STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL WIND FIELDS DOWNSTREAM FROM TROUGH AXIS AND THE ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...IT APPEARS THAT WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AND THE RESULTANT NEGATIVE IMPACT ON MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL TEND TO LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT. THE POTENTIAL FOR CORRIDORS OF STRONGER INSTABILITY AND INHERENTLY HIGHER SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY WELL DEVELOP. HOWEVER...ATTM THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY...WARRANTING ONLY LOW PROBABILITIES. SOME PORTION OF BROAD 5% AREA MAY WELL NEED TO BE UPGRADED ON SUBSEQUENT DAY 1 OUTLOOKS. ..MEAD.. 10/30/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Oct 31 08:20:47 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 31 Oct 2004 03:20:47 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200410310821.i9V8LiV23441@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 310813 SWODY2 SPC AC 310812 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0212 AM CST SUN OCT 31 2004 VALID 011200Z - 021200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WNW LRD 50 SE BWD 40 SW PRX 20 E HOT 60 W MEM 25 SE MEM 40 S CBM 40 ESE GPT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE P07 50 W SJT 60 ESE LBB 45 WNW CSM 35 ENE CNU 20 SSE UIN 40 E LAF 25 NNW CMH 40 WSW UNI 60 NNW CSV 30 ESE HSV 10 SE MGM 20 SW PFN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE ERN HALF OF TX TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY.... ...SYNOPSIS... A MID LEVEL TROUGH IS DIGGING SEWD OVER THE NRN GREAT BASIN EARLY THIS MORNING...AND THIS TROUGH WILL REACH CENTRAL TX AND OK BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. IN RESPONSE TO THIS AMPLIFYING TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES...A SEPARATE WAVE NOW OVER NRN BAJA WILL EJECT NEWD OVER TX/OK AND LOSE AMPLITUDE BY EARLY DAY 2. AT THE SURFACE...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS N TX AND SRN AR WILL MOVE NWD AS A WARM FRONT TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY BY EARLY TOMORROW...WITH WEAK CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY IN ADVANCE OF THE WEAKENING SRN STREAM WAVE. A SEPARATE LEE CYCLONE ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL DEVELOP EWD ACROSS OK/AR IN ADVANCE OF THE NRN STREAM TROUGH. THE SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND CYCLONES WILL FOCUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. ...E TX TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY... A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING MONDAY MORNING FROM CENTRAL/E TX NNEWD ACROSS ERN OK TO CENTRAL MO. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD PERSIST AND SPREAD EWD ACROSS AR/LA/WRN TN/MS BY EARLY TUESDAY. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR NOW ACROSS TX ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STEEP...AND WILL LIKELY BE REDUCED FURTHER BY WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING. STILL...WEAK TO MODERATE SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED IMMEDIATELY E OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE BAND...WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS WILL BE NEAR 70 F. THE MODEST INSTABILITY AND MOIST PROFILES...IN COMBINATION WITH 50-60 KT SSWLY MID LEVEL FLOW...SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND/OR BOW ECHO STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A FEW DAMAGING GUSTS AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE OF TORNADOES. ..THOMPSON.. 10/31/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Oct 31 16:34:25 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 31 Oct 2004 11:34:25 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200410311635.i9VGZKV26502@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 311627 SWODY2 SPC AC 311626 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1026 AM CST SUN OCT 31 2004 VALID 011200Z - 021200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WNW LRD 30 N BWD 30 W SPS 30 SSW OKC 60 W MEM 25 SE MEM 40 S CBM 40 ESE GPT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE P07 50 W SJT 35 E LBB 65 ENE AMA 35 ENE CNU 20 SSE UIN 40 E LAF 25 NNW CMH 40 WSW UNI 60 NNW CSV 30 ESE HSV 10 SE MGM 20 SW PFN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS EWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... COLD ADVECTION ON UPSTREAM SIDE OF EVOLVING MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN W WILL RESULT IN AMPLIFICATION OF THIS FEATURE AND EVENTUAL EVOLUTION OF A CLOSED LOW OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS ON MONDAY. MEANWHILE...SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING INTO WRN SONORA MEXICO WILL TEND TO DE-AMPLIFY AS IT EJECTS ENEWD ACROSS TX INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MS VALLEY AHEAD OF INTENSIFYING UPSTREAM SYSTEM. AT THE SURFACE...PRIMARY SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP FROM WRN TX EWD ACROSS N TX DURING THE DAY WHILE TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHES SEWD. SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT WILL ALSO LIKELY OCCUR FARTHER TO THE NE ALONG RETREATING WARM FRONT IN ADVANCE OF DE-AMPLIFYING...LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ...SRN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY... CLUSTERS OF TSTMS OR A QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING INITIALLY FROM PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN TX NWD ACROSS ERN OK AND WRN AR. THIS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINTAINED EWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...LARGELY AIDED BY LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF LEAD DISTURBANCE. WHILE LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN POOR OWING TO CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING/PROCESSING...THE PRESENCE OF A MOIST BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS /DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S/ WILL CONTRIBUTE TO POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WHERE MLCAPES WILL APPROACH 1000-1500 J/KG. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF 40-50 KTS AND 0-1 KM SRH OF 100-200 M2/S2 ACROSS PRE-CONVECTIVE WARM SECTOR SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRIMARILY DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES. ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP INVOF OF SURFACE LOW NEAR THE RED RIVER AND SWD ALONG TRAILING COLD FRONT ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AS 70-80 KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK BEGINS TO EMERGE FROM BASE OF EVOLVING UPPER LOW. HERE...RATHER COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES OF -15 TO -18 C AT 500 MB WILL OVERSPREAD AN AXIS OF 60S SURFACE DEWPOINTS...EFFECTIVELY CONTRIBUTING TO STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. THOUGH MID AND HIGH-LEVEL WIND FIELDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME INCREASINGLY MERIDIONAL WITH TIME...BACKED LOW-LEVEL FLOW INVOF SURFACE LOW WILL RESULT IN FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED TORNADO. ..MEAD.. 10/31/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.