[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 130539
SWODY2
SPC AC 130538

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1138 PM CST FRI NOV 12 2004

VALID 141200Z - 151200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE ELP 30 SSE CNM
55 SSE CDS 55 ESE SPS 55 NNE CLL 40 SSW LFK 35 SSW HUM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNE SRQ 30 SE DAB.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST...
MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE SHARPENING
TROUGH FROM THE CNTRL ROCKIES INTO NRN MEXICO. LATEST SHORT-TERM
MODEL GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM SWD FROM NEAR THE 4-CORNERS REGION INTO
SONORA MEXICO BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS IS LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO STRONG
UPPER JET CURRENTLY OFF THE NRN CA COAST /PER GOES WATER VAPOR
DERIVED WINDS/...WHICH WILL DIVE SWD INTO TROUGH BASE.

AT THE SURFACE...PRIMARY SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN WELL S OF
INTERNATIONAL BORDER WITH RIDGE AXIS REMAINING ENTRENCHED OVER THE
SRN HIGH PLAINS. INCREASING ELY BOUNDARY-LAYER FLOW OVER THE NRN
GULF OF MEXICO WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MODIFICATION OF CONTINENTAL POLAR
AIR MASS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DEWPOINTS TO INCREASE INTO THE LOWER
60S ACROSS DEEP S TX AND ADJACENT COASTAL PLAIN.

PERSISTENT SELY LLJ IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN TRANSPORT OF MODIFIED
GULF AIR MASS NWWD ABOVE STABLE BOUNDARY-LAYER...CONTRIBUTING TO
POCKETS OF WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY INTO PORTIONS OF NRN AND WRN
TX. LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT
PATTERN...AS WELL AS WITH ANY WEAK DISTURBANCES EJECTING OUT OF
TROUGH BASE...WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SOME ELEVATED TSTM
ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...ANY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL REMAIN NEGLIGIBLE
OWING TO THE WEAK INSTABILITY.

..MEAD.. 11/13/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.