[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 041721
SWODY2
SPC AC 041719

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1119 AM CST THU NOV 04 2004

VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NNE MRY 50 NNW PRB
40 W BFL 25 WNW PMD 25 SSE PMD 40 S RAL.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...EAST OF ROCKIES...
MODELS SUGGEST LARGE-SCALE TROUGH...EVOLVING FROM MERGING NORTHERN
AND SOUTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVES OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES LATE TODAY
INTO TONIGHT...WILL PROGRESS OFF THE NORTH ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY. 
BY FRIDAY MORNING...ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO HAVE
CLEARED ALL BUT THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...WHERE RELATIVELY
WARM MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKENING SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE LIKELY WILL INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

SOME AMPLIFICATION OF A SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH IS FORECAST TO OCCUR
OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. 
HOWEVER...DESPITE A GRADUAL MID-LEVEL COOLING/EVENTUAL WEAKENING OF
INHIBITION...FRONTAL ZONE IS EXPECTED TO HAVE ADVANCED SOUTH/EAST OF
THE MIAMI/PALM BEACH AREA AND FLORIDA KEYS...MINIMIZING RISK OF
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER INLAND AREAS.

...WEST OF ROCKIES...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SUPPORTS LATEST MODEL FORECASTS INDICATING UPPER
CLOSED LOW SHOULD REMAIN CUT-OFF ALONG THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.  CORE OF COLDER AIR ALOFT...ASSOCIATED WITH
SHORT WAVE ROTATING AROUND CIRCULATION CENTER...MAY BEGIN SPREADING
INTO COASTAL AREAS NORTH/NORTHWEST OF THE LOS ANGELES BASIN AS EARLY
AS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  THIS COULD CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT
DESTABILIZATION FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...WHICH MAY
CONTINUE INTO EARLY FRIDAY EVENING.

..KERR.. 11/04/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.