From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Nov 1 08:31:28 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 01 Nov 2004 03:31:28 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200411010832.iA18WKV03498@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 010828 SWODY2 SPC AC 010827 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0227 AM CST MON NOV 01 2004 VALID 021200Z - 031200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WNW MFE 60 N VCT 30 SSW GGG ARG 10 SSE MVN 30 ENE IND 35 N MFD 15 NW FKL 10 SSE DUJ AOO 40 SSE EKN 30 SE TRI 30 N AHN 25 SSW MCN 15 ENE AQQ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE BLI 25 NNE SEA 50 N PDX 15 N ONP. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... THE DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH NOW OVER ERN AZ/WRN NM WILL DIG SEWD AND EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER NRN MEXICO TODAY BEFORE EJECTING NEWD OVER WRN/CENTRAL TX TO OK BY TUESDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE PAC NW. THE 00Z ETA/GFS HAVE SLOWED THE EWD PROGRESSION WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SINCE LAST NIGHT HAVE CONTINUED TO SUGGEST EVEN LESS PROGRESSION AND MORE PRONOUNCED WEAKENING OF THIS MID LEVEL TROUGH TOMORROW. THIS INTRODUCES SUBSTANTIAL UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND THE AMPLITUDE OF ANY ASSOCIATED SURFACE WAVE ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY. A BROAD BAND OF RAINFALL AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS IS STILL EXPECTED TO PERSIST AND MOVE SLOWLY EWD TODAY ACROSS TX/SE OK/AR...REACHING LA/MS TOMORROW. 40-50 KT MID LEVEL FLOW WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR AND BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S WOULD APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS...BUT POOR LAPSE RATES AND RELATIVELY WEAK LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL ACT AS LIMITING FACTORS. ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE TOMORROW ACROSS LA/MS WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE BAND...BUT THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS QUESTIONABLE ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY ONLY LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES THIS FAR IN ADVANCE. ..THOMPSON.. 11/01/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Nov 1 17:29:22 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 01 Nov 2004 12:29:22 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200411011730.iA1HUEV31248@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 011727 SWODY2 SPC AC 011726 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1126 AM CST MON NOV 01 2004 VALID 021200Z - 031200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE BLI 25 NNE SEA 50 N PDX 15 N ONP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSE CRP 10 N NIR 10 NNE TPL 30 SE DAL 15 NNE PRX FSM UMN TBN 65 SW BLV 10 SE FDY 35 SW ERI 10 SE FKL LBE MGW LOZ HSV 10 S SEM 30 SSE MOB. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... MODELS SUGGEST STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL PERSIST ALONG/JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. AS A RESULT... NORTHERN PORTION OF UPSTREAM CENTRAL STATES TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN SOUTHERN PORTION...AS NEXT SYSTEM ADVANCES INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES/NORTHWEST STATES. THIS IS CURRENTLY SUPPORTED BY LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...IN WHICH EVOLVING CLOSED LOW IS EVIDENT OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. ...WRN GULF OF MEXICO INTO MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI/LWR OHIO VALLEYS... DISCREPANCIES STILL EXIST AMONG MODELS/MODEL RUNS WITH REGARD TO SPEED AT WHICH CLOSED LOW BEGINS TO MIGRATE OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. LATEST RUNS INDICATE UPPER/LOW TROUGH MAY STILL BE AS FAR WEST AS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE SYSTEM BEGINS TO ACCELERATE MORE RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD TUESDAY NIGHT...WELL TO THE WEST OF SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE. DESPITE RELATIVELY HIGH MOISTURE LEVELS /WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S-LOWER 70S/ AHEAD OF FRONT...MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES DO NOT APPEAR LIKELY TO STEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY DUE TO POSITIVE TILT ORIENTATION OF UPPER SYSTEM. THIS WILL LIMIT OVERALL MAGNITUDE OF DESTABILIZATION...AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO MINIMIZE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF STATES. PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE BAND MAY BE ONGOING FROM THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL THROUGH EXTREME EASTERN ARKANSAS INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS EARLY TUESDAY...WHEN LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ARE PROGGED TO BE STRONGEST. SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET ON THE ORDER OF 40 KTS OR SO WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT SHEAR TO SUPPORT LOW RISK OF SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...WITH SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION IN ENVIRONMENT WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE UP TO 500 J/KG. THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY...AS EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER INHIBITS SURFACE HEATING...AND LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS AT LEAST TEMPORARILY WEAKEN. SOME STRENGTHENING OF FLOW/SHEAR PROFILES IS AGAIN PROGGED BY MODELS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT...AS UPPER SYSTEM BEGINS TO ACCELERATE MORE RAPIDLY OUT OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. HOWEVER...THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...WHICH WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/TORNADOES. ..KERR.. 11/01/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 2 08:36:38 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 02 Nov 2004 03:36:38 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200411020837.iA28bRV25116@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 020835 SWODY2 SPC AC 020834 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0234 AM CST TUE NOV 02 2004 VALID 031200Z - 041200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE LCH 20 NW MLU 40 SSW PBF 50 N HOT 40 SW JEF 35 ENE MMO 10 NNE TOL 15 NNW CAK 20 SSW HLG BLF 20 NNW GSO 30 W GSB 25 W ILM 35 SW CRE 40 WNW CHS 25 SW AHN 25 ENE LGC 30 W PFN. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... THE MID LEVEL TROUGH NOW OVER W TX WILL EJECT NEWD TOMORROW TOWARD THE LOWER OH VALLEY IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER TROUGH DIGGING SEWD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. AT THE SURFACE...A LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP NNEWD IN ADVANCE OF THIS TROUGH...FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO THE OH VALLEY. THOUGH THE STRONGER JET CORE WILL LIKELY REMAIN W OF THE WARM SECTOR...DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS IN A BAND NEAR THE SURFACE FRONT ACROSS THE SE LA/MS/AL/WRN TN AREA. A POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTOR...HOWEVER...WILL BE POOR LAPSE RATES AND RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY IN THE WARM SECTOR. ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH STORMS IN A BAND NEAR THE FRONT...BUT THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS TOO MARGINAL TO JUSTIFY A CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK AREA AT THIS TIME. ..THOMPSON.. 11/02/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 2 17:24:54 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 02 Nov 2004 12:24:54 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200411021725.iA2HPgV10794@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 021723 SWODY2 SPC AC 021721 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1121 AM CST TUE NOV 02 2004 VALID 031200Z - 041200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE LCH 10 SE MLU 35 NE ELD HOT UNO UIN RFD 10 WNW AZO 10 NW FKL LBE 20 WNW SHD 10 SW ROA GSO RDU 10 NE FAY FLO CAE AHN ATL 35 WNW PFN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSW UKI 25 E SJC 10 WSW FAT 25 ENE BFL OXR. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... AMPLIFICATION OF SOUTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST ALREADY APPEARS TO HAVE BEGUN IN LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. MODELS SUGGEST THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTHWARD ALONG THE OREGON/NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY ...BEFORE CLOSED LOW EVENTUALLY FORMS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF SAN FRANCISCO BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IN RESPONSE TO EVOLVING UPSTREAM PATTERN...CLOSED LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MORE RAPID ACCELERATION INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY MAY OCCUR LATE IN THE PERIOD...AS MORE PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGS FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ...CNTRL GULF COAST INTO OHIO VALLEY/APPALACHIANS... BROAD SWATH OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT DOWNSTREAM OF UPPER TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AND EMBEDDED CONVECTION. BEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY APPEARS TO EXIST IN NARROW PRE-FRONTAL LOW-LEVEL MOIST TONGUE FROM SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA THROUGH EASTERN MISSISSIPPI/WESTERN ALABAMA. THIS WILL BE IN WARM SECTOR OF DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW...WHERE SURFACE DEW POINTS AS HIGH AS THE LOWER 70S WILL CONTRIBUTE TO POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. DUE TO LIKELIHOOD OF CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER...DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE WEAK...BUT COULD STILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR NARROW CORRIDOR OF CAPE IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG BY LATE AFTERNOON. WHILE THIS MAY BE SUPPORTIVE OF VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS AND HEAVY RAIN...MODELS SUGGEST CORE OF MID/UPPER JET STREAK AND COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH WILL LAG TO THE WEST OF WARM SECTOR. THIS WILL LIMIT MAGNITUDE OF CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR...WHICH WILL IN TURN MINIMIZE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT. EXIT REGION OF SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL JET SHOULD FOCUS STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION NORTH OF WARM FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY BY LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS APPEARS LIKELY TO CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION ABOVE LOW-LEVEL INVERSION LAYERS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. ...CALIFORNIA... AT LEAST WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED WITH EVOLVING COLD UPPER LOW ALONG THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES LIKELY WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR HAIL IN STRONGEST CELLS...BUT MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. ..KERR.. 11/02/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Nov 3 08:31:30 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 03 Nov 2004 03:31:30 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200411030832.iA38WFV09562@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 030830 SWODY2 SPC AC 030829 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0229 AM CST WED NOV 03 2004 VALID 041200Z - 051200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SE JAX 40 S CTY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE SFO 50 NNE SAC 35 WSW LOL 20 WNW U31 30 ENE TPH 25 NNE EDW 15 SW LAX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW PNS 25 SSW ANB CSV 15 S LEX 45 WSW LUK 20 ESE IND 50 W FWA 45 N FWA 25 SSW ERI 30 S IPT 20 S ACY. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... THE REMNANTS OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH NOW OVER TX/OK WILL EJECT ENEWD AND LOSE AMPLITUDE TOMORROW IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG NRN STREAM WAVE THAT IS FORECAST TO DIG SEWD OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE SURFACE...A LOW WILL LIKELY MOVE NEWD TO THE W OF THE APPALACHIANS TOMORROW...WITH SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS EXPECTED NEAR THE SE NEW ENGLAND COAST TOMORROW NIGHT AS THE EJECTING SRN STREAM WAVE PHASES WITH THE DIGGING GREAT LAKES TROUGH. THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE THE SURFACE LOW AND TRAILING COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...A SEPARATE CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW WILL FORM INVOF NRN/CENTRAL CA LATER TODAY...AND THEN DRIFT SWWD OVER CA TOMORROW WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF VERY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MID LEVEL COLD POOL. THOUGH INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN QUITE WEAK W OF THE APPALACHIANS...THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY FOR GREATER DESTABILIZATION E OF THE MOUNTAINS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS DURING THE AFTERNOON. IF SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP...WIND PROFILES SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND/OR BOW ECHOES. GIVEN THE SUBSTANTIAL UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...WILL ONLY OUTLOOK LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME. ..THOMPSON.. 11/03/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Nov 3 17:31:57 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 03 Nov 2004 12:31:57 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200411031732.iA3HWgV21221@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 031730 SWODY2 SPC AC 031729 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1129 AM CST WED NOV 03 2004 VALID 041200Z - 051200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW CRE 20 E FLO 30 S RIC 25 W SBY 35 NE SBY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE SFO 50 NNE SAC 35 WSW LOL 20 WNW U31 30 ENE TPH 25 NNE EDW 15 SW LAX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE MOB MGM GAD 50 WSW CSV LEX DAY 10 WSW TOL MTC OSC PLN 60 WNW ANJ ...CONT... 30 WNW ROC 40 E BFD CXY ABE PSF EEN 15 SSE PSM ...CONT... 10 ESE DAB 60 N PIE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS.... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES SOUTHERN PLAINS CLOSED LOW HAS FINALLY BEGUN TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD...AS UPSTREAM SOUTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST. WHILE LATTER FEATURE IS PROGGED TO EVOLVE INTO A CUT-OFF LOW...MODELS SUGGEST DOWNSTREAM CIRCULATION WILL EVOLVE INTO SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND CONTINUE INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY BY EARLY THURSDAY...BEFORE ACCELERATING EASTWARD TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL OCCUR IN RESPONSE TO INFLUENCE OF MORE PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH...WHICH IS FORECAST TO DIG INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...PHASING OF NORTHERN/SOUTHERN BRANCH SYSTEMS INTO LARGER NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES IS PROGGED...WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS NEAR THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. ...MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS... MODELS SUGGEST SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING EAST OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS LATE TODAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN DURING THE DAY THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO EVOLVING UPPER FLOW PATTERN. WITH APPROACH OF SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH...DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED ALONG FRONTAL ZONE...FROM THE LEE OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO THE DELMARVA PENINSULA AREA BY EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S...TO RAPIDLY RETURN NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA INTO CHESAPEAKE REGION...CONTRIBUTING TO INCREASING POTENTIAL INSTABILITY. WARM MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE WILL LIKELY CAP WARM SECTOR OF SURFACE LOW UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY...WHEN IT APPEARS MID-LEVEL COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE EXPECTED TO APPROACH OR EXCEED 1000 J/KG...FORCING SHOULD FAVOR EVOLUTION OF AT LEAST NARROW PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC COASTAL PLAINS. EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH MEAN FLOW AROUND 50 KT...DAMAGING WINDS WILL LIKELY BE PRIMARY THREAT WITH CONVECTION...BEFORE ACTIVITY INCREASES IN COVERAGE AND SPREADS OFFSHORE THURSDAY EVENING. ..KERR.. 11/03/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Nov 4 08:34:16 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 04 Nov 2004 03:34:16 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200411040834.iA48Ywg10623@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 040831 SWODY2 SPC AC 040830 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0230 AM CST THU NOV 04 2004 VALID 051200Z - 061200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NNE MRY 50 NNW PRB 40 W BFL 25 WNW PMD 25 SSE PMD 40 S RAL. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... RATHER BENIGN CONVECTIVE PATTERN EXPECTED ACROSS THE CONUS TOMORROW AS A DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EWD OVER NEW ENGLAND AND A STRONG NRN STREAM JET PERSISTS ACROSS SRN CANADA AND THE NRN TIER OF STATES. IN THE WAKE OF THE NEW ENGLAND TROUGH...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS FL...THOUGH WEAK INSTABILITY IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL LIMIT THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS. FARTHER W...A CLOSED/CUTOFF MID LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL CA IS FORECAST TO DRIFT SLIGHTLY ESEWD OVER THE CENTRAL/SRN CA COAST. STEEP LAPSE RATES BENEATH THE MID LEVEL COLD POOL MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE CA COAST. ..THOMPSON.. 11/04/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Nov 4 17:23:53 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 04 Nov 2004 12:23:53 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200411041724.iA4HOXg22597@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 041721 SWODY2 SPC AC 041719 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1119 AM CST THU NOV 04 2004 VALID 051200Z - 061200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NNE MRY 50 NNW PRB 40 W BFL 25 WNW PMD 25 SSE PMD 40 S RAL. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...EAST OF ROCKIES... MODELS SUGGEST LARGE-SCALE TROUGH...EVOLVING FROM MERGING NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVES OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT...WILL PROGRESS OFF THE NORTH ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY. BY FRIDAY MORNING...ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO HAVE CLEARED ALL BUT THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...WHERE RELATIVELY WARM MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKENING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LIKELY WILL INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. SOME AMPLIFICATION OF A SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH IS FORECAST TO OCCUR OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...DESPITE A GRADUAL MID-LEVEL COOLING/EVENTUAL WEAKENING OF INHIBITION...FRONTAL ZONE IS EXPECTED TO HAVE ADVANCED SOUTH/EAST OF THE MIAMI/PALM BEACH AREA AND FLORIDA KEYS...MINIMIZING RISK OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER INLAND AREAS. ...WEST OF ROCKIES... SATELLITE IMAGERY SUPPORTS LATEST MODEL FORECASTS INDICATING UPPER CLOSED LOW SHOULD REMAIN CUT-OFF ALONG THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. CORE OF COLDER AIR ALOFT...ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE ROTATING AROUND CIRCULATION CENTER...MAY BEGIN SPREADING INTO COASTAL AREAS NORTH/NORTHWEST OF THE LOS ANGELES BASIN AS EARLY AS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS COULD CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...WHICH MAY CONTINUE INTO EARLY FRIDAY EVENING. ..KERR.. 11/04/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Nov 5 05:31:05 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 05 Nov 2004 00:31:05 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200411050531.iA55Vgg30860@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 050529 SWODY2 SPC AC 050528 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1128 PM CST THU NOV 04 2004 VALID 061200Z - 071200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM VBG PMD TRM 25 WSW YUM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NNW EYW PBI. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THROUGH PERIOD WILL FEATURE BROAD TROUGH OVER ERN CANADA AND NERN CONUS...MEAN RIDGE FROM N-CENTRAL MEX ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN ROCKIES...AND PRONOUNCED CYCLONE OVER CA. LATTER FEATURE IS PRESENTLY CENTERED JUST OFFSHORE MRY BAY...AND SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE INLAND SOMETIME MID-LATE PERIOD. AS THIS OCCURS...LOW LEVEL THETAE ADVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS COASTAL SRN CA -- AND PERHAPS CA/MEX BORDER -- MAY LEAD TO ENOUGH DESTABILIZATION TO SUPPORT OCCASIONAL THUNDER. MEANWHILE...LOW-AMPLITUDE PERTURBATION ALOFT -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER NEB/NERN KS...SHOULD MOVE SEWD AND AMPLIFY SOMEWHAT AS IT APCHS FL. FRONTAL ZONE NOW SWEEPING EWD ACROSS ATLANTIC OFFSHORE WATERS AND SEWD OVER NRN FL SHOULD STALL...RESULTING IN BROAD/DIFFUSE FRONTAL ZONE OVER FL STRAITS AND EXTREME S FL. LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASING LATE IN PERIOD...COMBINED WITH PROXIMITY TO LOW LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE...MAY RESULT IN ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR THUNDER OVER PORTIONS SRN FL AND ADJACENT WATERS. ..EDWARDS.. 11/05/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Nov 5 17:27:29 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 05 Nov 2004 12:27:29 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200411051728.iA5HS5g08682@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 051723 SWODY2 SPC AC 051723 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1123 AM CST FRI NOV 05 2004 VALID 061200Z - 071200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S VBG 45 NNE NID 60 E LAS 25 NW PRC 70 SW GBN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM EYW PBI. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...WEST OF ROCKIES... MODELS ARE SIMILAR WITH REGARD TO FORECAST AMPLIFICATION OF UPPER RIDGE ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA SATURDAY...DOWNSTREAM OF PROGRESSIVE NORTHEAST PACIFIC SHORT WAVE TROUGH. AS THIS OCCURS...CLOSED LOW WILL REMAIN CUT-OFF NEAR THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. MODELS DO SUGGEST A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE WILL ROTATE AROUND SOUTHERN/EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS CIRCULATION...CONTRIBUTING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG CYCLONIC MID/UPPER JET STREAK ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA/SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE LOWER COLORADO VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT. ASSOCIATED EVOLUTION OF 30 TO 40 KT SOUTHERLY LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC JET INTO THE LOWER COLORADO VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MOISTENING ENVIRONMENT BENEATH EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET STREAK. MODELS SUGGEST THIS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION FOR WEAK CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE NEEDLES AREA... WESTWARD THROUGH THE MOJAVE DESERT. OTHER THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE NEAR COLD CORE OF UPPER LOW... BUT THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN OFF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTAL AREAS. ...EAST OF ROCKIES... IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN SUBTROPICAL JET IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO LATE TODAY...AND WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE AMPLIFICATION OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO LATER TONIGHT. MODELS SUGGEST THIS FEATURE WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA/CARIBBEAN/AND BAHAMAS REGION SATURDAY...LIKELY SUPPORTING SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR MOST LIKELY SOUTH/EAST OF STALLED FRONTAL ZONE...TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. HOWEVER...WEAK CAPPING AND MOIST EASTERLY FLOW MAY CONTRIBUTE TO AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IN THE VICINITY OF COASTAL AREAS AROUND MIAMI. ..KERR.. 11/05/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Nov 6 05:50:00 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 06 Nov 2004 00:50:00 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200411060550.iA65oYg25096@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 060548 SWODY2 SPC AC 060547 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1147 PM CST FRI NOV 05 2004 VALID 071200Z - 081200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSW SBA SBA BIH U31 EKO 45 NE ENV SLC PUC U17 INW 55 E PHX PHX IGM 40 NNW EED TRM CZZ. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE -- NOW EVIDENT ON MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER CENTRAL/SRN CA OFFSHORE WATERS -- IS FCST TO TURN EWD AND MOVE INLAND DURING PERIOD. LATEST 21Z SREF COMPOSITES...21Z ETA-KF AND 00Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ONE ANOTHER ON THIS PROCESS. HOWEVER...PROG TRENDS GOING BACK A COUPLE OF DAYS HAVE BEEN SLOWING TIMING OF INLAND MOTION OF THIS SYSTEM WITH EACH SUCCEEDING SET OF RUNS. THEREFORE...ANTICIPATE THAT MOST OF CONUS E OF ROCKIES WILL REMAIN E OF DOWNSTREAM MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...IN NW TO WLY FLOW ALOFT...AND WITH LITTLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN OF SIGNIFICANCE. ...SRN GREAT BASIN TO COASTAL SRN CA... ONLY GEN THUNDER POTENTIAL OF CONSEQUENCE SHOULD BE NEAR COLD CORE OF UPPER LOW...AND IN FOREGOING LOW LEVEL WAA/MOIST ADVECTION CONVEYOR. FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STEEPENING LAPSE RATES CONTRIBUTING TO MUCAPES 100-500 J/KG RANGE INVOF SRN CA COAST DURING DAY...AND INCREASING AFTER 00Z TO SIMILAR VALUES ACROSS SRN/SWRN GREAT BASIN AREA. LOW-MIDLEVEL SHEAR PROFILES AND COOLING ALOFT MAY SUPPORT SMALL HAIL PRODUCTION IN A FEW CELLS...BUT SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS TOO WEAK/ISOLATED TO WARRANT EITHER PROBABILISTIC OR CATEGORICAL OUTLOOKS ATTM. ..EDWARDS.. 11/06/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Nov 6 16:31:56 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 06 Nov 2004 11:31:56 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200411061632.iA6GWSg08282@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 061626 SWODY2 SPC AC 061625 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1025 AM CST SAT NOV 06 2004 VALID 071200Z - 081200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE VBG 25 WNW BIH 25 SSE NFL 45 E LOL 25 E BAM 55 SW ENV 55 NNW MLF 20 SSE BCE 55 SSE PGA 45 SSW INW 25 NNE PHX 65 NNW GBN 35 S EED 20 E TRM CZZ. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SWRN U.S... UPPER LOW POSITIONED OFF THE SRN CA COAST...NEAR 33N/123W...IS EXPECTED TO EJECT NEWD ACROSS SRN CA LATE IN THE DAY2 PERIOD. THIS MOVEMENT WILL ALLOW CONVEYOR OF ASCENT/MID LEVEL MOISTENING TO SHIFT INLAND AS UPPER SPEED MAX DEVELOPS DOWNSTREAM OVER AZ. IT APPEARS ISOLATED-SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE COMMON WITH THIS CONVEYOR AS IT SPREADS INLAND...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE FORECAST STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. IN ADDITION...HEATING OVER THE DESERT REGIONS SHOULD AID INSTABILITY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...POSSIBLY ENHANCING THE CONCENTRATION OF DEEP CONVECTION THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ..DARROW.. 11/06/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Nov 7 05:50:32 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 07 Nov 2004 00:50:32 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200411070551.iA75p2g24461@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 070548 SWODY2 SPC AC 070547 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1147 PM CST SAT NOV 06 2004 VALID 081200Z - 091200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DUG FHU TUS PHX 70 NNW GBN BLH 40 NNE TRM DAG 70 SE BIH TPH ENV OGD EVW 40 S RKS 40 W EGE GUC SAF ONM TCS DMN DUG. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... PRONOUNCED MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE -- NOW EVIDENT ON MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OFFSHORE CENTRAL/SRN CA -- IS EXPECTED TO TURN NEWD AND MOVE INLAND LATE DAY-1 OR EARLY DAY-2 PERIOD...THEN MOVE ACROSS GREAT BASIN THROUGH DAY-2. BROAD PLUME OF LOW LEVEL WAA AND MOIST ADVECTION SHOULD PRECEDE THIS SYSTEM ACROSS REGION...HELPING TO DESTABILIZE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TSTMS IN WARM CONVEYOR. LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND COOLING WILL SPREAD OVER WRN PORTION OUTLOOK AREA IN PROXIMITY TO MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW...AND IN CONJUNCTION WITH PEAK SFC DIABATIC HEATING DURING AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD FURTHER STEEPEN DEEP-LAYER LAPSE RATES AND SUPPORT TSTMS DURING AFTERNOON/EVENING. A FEW TSTMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL...BUT SEVERE PROBABILITIES APPEAR TOO MARGINAL/ISOLATED FOR ANY SORT OF OUTLOOK BEYOND GEN TSTMS ATTM. FARTHER E...EXPECT CONTINUED PRESENCE OF STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER RIDGING AND CONTINENTAL/ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF SRN PLAINS...REINFORCED BY DAY-1 FROPA. THIS SHOULD PREVENT SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE RETURN E OF ROCKIES THROUGH PERIOD...AND PRECLUDE SEVERE TSTMS. ..EDWARDS.. 11/07/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Nov 7 17:37:35 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 07 Nov 2004 12:37:35 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200411071738.iA7Hc4g31638@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 071735 SWODY2 SPC AC 071734 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1134 AM CST SUN NOV 07 2004 VALID 081200Z - 091200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW FHU 30 SW FHU 45 NNW TUS 10 NNE PHX 75 ENE BLH 25 N BLH 45 E DAG 55 NE NID 40 S TPH 65 ESE U31 ENV OGD EVW 35 SW RKS 20 SW CAG 20 ESE ASE 10 SSE ALS 25 W LVS 40 SW 4CR 40 SE DMN. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...GREAT BASIN/4-CORNERS... UPPER LOW JUST OFF THE SRN CA COAST WILL EJECT INLAND ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN TOWARD THE CENTRAL ROCKIES LATE IN THE PERIOD. WARM CONVEYOR BELT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE HAS ALREADY INDUCED WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND PRECIPITATION FROM LOWER LATITUDES ACROSS NWRN MEXICO...NWD INTO AZ AND SWRN UT. ALTHOUGH LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM CONVEYOR ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK...STEEPER POST FRONTAL LAPSE RATES BENEATH THE UPPER LOW SHOULD ALLOW SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ..DARROW.. 11/07/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Nov 8 05:53:16 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 08 Nov 2004 00:53:16 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200411080553.iA85rgg03284@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 080551 SWODY2 SPC AC 080550 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1150 PM CST SUN NOV 07 2004 VALID 091200Z - 101200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM OFK LNK BIE HUT P28 GAG AMA TCC LVS 4BL U24 DPG 55 WNW OGD MLD RKS FCL 30 SE SNY 45 NNE BUB OFK. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL FEATURE PRONOUNCED MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE -- NOW EVIDENT ON MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER CHANNEL ISLANDS OF SRN CA. STRONG AGREEMENT EXISTS AMONG LATEST SETS OF BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS REGARDING TIMING/TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM...AS IT MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL ROCKIES AND CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS. SOMETIME LATE DAY-2 OR EARLY DAY-3...PROG DIFFERENCES BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED...WITH MANY SOLUTIONS YIELDING OPEN WAVE...UNDER INFLUENCE OF HEIGHT FALLS PRECEDING CANADIAN NRN STREAM TROUGH. SPECTRAL MAINTAINS MORE DETACHMENT BETWEEN SRN/NRN STREAMS AND CLOSED CYCLONE MOVING ACROSS CO/NRN NM. IN EITHER EVENT...SFC LEE-SIDE CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...RESULTING IN STRONG REGIONAL CONVERGENCE MAX AND BROAD AREA OF LOW LEVEL WAA. MEANWHILE...PRIND STRONGEST ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH PACIFIC UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN TOO FAR OFFSHORE NRN CA COAST DURING THIS PERIOD FOR GEN TSTM RISK THERE. ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ARC OF STRONG DEEP-LAYER ASCENT -- AHEAD OF UPPER LOW AND INVOF LEE TROUGH -- SHOULD SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING...SHIFTING EWD FROM CO/NERN NM ACROSS PORTIONS WRN KS...PERHAPS SWRN NEB AND TX/OK PANHANDLES. INTENSE DYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC FIELDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT EWD FROM SRN/CENTRAL ROCKIES AHEAD OF CURRENT PACIFIC COAST CYCLONE. HOWEVER...SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE GREATLY RESTRICTED BY INADEQUATE MOISTURE RETURN. LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES WILL ORIGINATE LARGELY FROM LARGE CONTINENTAL ANTICYCLONE NOW SETTLING SEWD ACROSS UPPER MIDWEST AND CENTRAL PLAINS. RESIDUAL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND STEEPENING MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY SUPPORT MUCAPES GENERALLY BELOW 500 J/KG. SOME STRONG-SEVERE GUSTS AND HAIL MAY OCCUR BUT LOW LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC WEAKNESSES PRECLUDE CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK ATTM. ..EDWARDS.. 11/08/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Nov 8 17:36:29 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 08 Nov 2004 12:36:29 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200411081736.iA8Hasg32350@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 081734 SWODY2 SPC AC 081733 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1133 AM CST MON NOV 08 2004 VALID 091200Z - 101200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 9V9 RSL GAG 30 WSW PVW 4CR GNT 4BL U28 15 SE SLC EVW 10 E RKS 15 WNW RWL 10 N DGW RAP 9V9. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... SPLIT IN LARGE-SCALE UPPER FLOW REGIME PERSISTS ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC...WITH SHORT WAVES REMAINING PROGRESSIVE IN NORTHERN BRANCH OF WESTERLIES...ACROSS CANADA INTO THE NORTHEASTERN STATES. MODELS SUGGEST PERTURBATIONS IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH WILL BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE BY TUESDAY...DOWNSTREAM OF STRONG ZONAL UPPER JET OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC. AS SHORT WAVE TROUGH...NOW OVER THE EAST CENTRAL PACIFIC... CONTINUES EASTWARD TOWARD THE PACIFIC COAST...DOWNSTREAM CLOSED LOW IS PROGGED TO GRADUALLY ACCELERATE EASTWARD OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES. AS THIS OCCURS...AND LARGE-SCALE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE ATLANTIC COAST STATES...MID/UPPER RIDGING OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL STATES IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN...WHILE SPRAWLING SURFACE HIGH BEGINS TO REDEVELOP EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. ...GREAT BASIN INTO PLAINS... LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING HAS RE-INFORCED DRYING EAST OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE ATLANTIC COAST STATES...AND FURTHER DRYING APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF COAST AND GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH TUESDAY. THUS...AS CLOSED LOW PROGRESSES OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE QUITE LIMITED. HOWEVER...RELATIVELY COLD POOL OF AIR /500 MB TEMPS AOB -20C/ EXISTS AT MID-LEVELS WITH UPPER LOW. AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND MID-LEVEL COOLING SPREAD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES TUESDAY...DESTABILIZATION SHOULD BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS...AS CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT BECOMES CHARACTERIZED BY PROFILES EXHIBITING LARGE LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURE-DEW POINT SPREADS BENEATH RELATIVELY MOIST MID/UPPER-LEVELS. ABOVE DEEPENING INVERSION ASSOCIATED WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING TUESDAY EVENING...ENVIRONMENT ALONG/WEST OF SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WARM. AS STRONGER MID-LEVEL COOLING BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST OF THE ROCKIES...STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF THUNDERSTORMS. BEST POTENTIAL FOR THIS APPEARS TO BE FROM PARTS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS...WHERE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNING NORTHWARD FROM THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY MAY CONTRIBUTE TO CAPE UP TO 500 J/KG. GIVEN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLY COOL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES...AND FORCING ENHANCED BY APPROACH OF CYCLONIC MID/UPPER JET STREAK...THIS MAY BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH HAIL APPROACHING/POSSIBLY BRIEFLY EXCEEDING SEVERE LIMITS. ..KERR.. 11/08/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 9 06:09:04 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 09 Nov 2004 01:09:04 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200411090609.iA969Rg04950@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 090607 SWODY2 SPC AC 090606 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1206 AM CST TUE NOV 09 2004 VALID 101200Z - 111200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MTJ CDC BIH 65 SSW SVE MHS MFR RDM BKE IDA BPI CAG MTJ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSW HUM ESF 45 NNW POE LFK 65 NW AUS ABI LTS CSM GAG 45 SSW LBL LAA 45 ESE AKO IML BBW 60 NE OMA CID MLI HUF 40 SW SDF BWG BNA TCL 50 SSW PNS. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... MAIN FEATURE FOR THIS FCST IS MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW -- NOW EVIDENT ON MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER NWRN AZ/SWRN UT. MOST MODELS FCST THIS FEATURE TO MOVE GENERALLY EWD CENTRAL/SRN ROCKIES AND ADJACENT PLAINS THROUGH DAY-2...THOUGH STRONGEST HEIGHT FALLS N-NE OF CIRCULATION CENTER ON 09/00Z 500 MB ANALYSES INDICATE SOMEWHAT MORE NRN TRACK MAY OCCUR ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS. AT SFC...STRONG FRONTOGENESIS FCST DAY-1 OVER NRN PLAINS -- IN ASSOCIATION WITH AMPLIFYING NRN STREAM TROUGH. BY 11/00Z...EXPECT FRONT TO EXTEND FROM INVOF ERN UPPER MI SWWD ACROSS IA THEN SSWWD OVER OK AND W TX. FRONTAL WAVE LOW SHOULD MOVE ACROSS SRN KS OR OK AND MAXIMIZE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN ITS VICINITY. EXPECT SFC LOW TO MOVE EWD OVER OZARKS REGION BY END OF PERIOD WHILE FRONT SWEEPS SEWD ACROSS MOST OF TX/OK. ...SERN PLAINS/OZARKS/ARKLATEX... BOUNDARY LAYER TRAJECTORIES WILL EMANATE LARGELY FROM CONTINENTAL ANTICYCLONE/RIDGE NOW OVER GREAT LAKES AND MS VALLEY. DEPTH OF MOIST LAYER IS CONCERN GIVEN LOW LEVEL DRYNESS OBSERVED IN 09/00Z CRP/BRO RAOBS...AND INDICATED BY ROUGHLY 60 DEG F SFC DEW POINTS AND NLY FLOW NOW OVER WRN GULF. MARINE MODIFICATION MAY ALLOW POCKETS OF 50S/LOW 60S F SKIN LAYER DEW POINTS TO REACH NWD INTO PORTIONS ERN OK AND AR BEFORE FROPA. WITHOUT THESE RETURN FLOW MOISTURE PROBLEMS...VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WOULD BE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND/OR ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE WIND EVENT...BASED ON ETA/SPECTRAL FCST SOUNDINGS ACROSS ERN OK...AR AND NE TX. ATTM WILL MAINTAIN BROAD AREA OF MARGINAL SEVERE PROBABILITIES BECAUSE OF THERMODYNAMIC QUESTIONS AND TRACK UNCERTAINTIES OF MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW. HOWEVER...SOME SUBSET OF THIS AREA COULD BE UPGRADED IN FUTURE OUTLOOKS GIVEN STRENGTH OF DYNAMIC FORCING...KINEMATIC FIELDS AND PRESENCE OF ENOUGH HEATING FOR SFC-BASED CONVECTION DURING AFTERNOON/EVENING. ..EDWARDS.. 11/09/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 9 17:32:42 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 09 Nov 2004 12:32:42 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200411091733.iA9HX4g04505@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 091726 SWODY2 SPC AC 091725 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1125 AM CST TUE NOV 09 2004 VALID 101200Z - 111200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S BPT 10 NW LFK 35 NE DAL 30 ENE FSI GAG 25 ESE EHA 35 NW EHA 10 NNE LAA 25 WSW GLD 40 ESE MCK 20 E FNB 30 SSE IRK 25 NW ALN 15 SSW MVN 50 SW HOP 25 ENE TUP 45 SW TCL 45 NNW PNS PNS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW P38 35 WSW BIH 25 ESE SCK 45 ENE UKI 30 WNW MHS 55 NNW LMT 50 SSE RDM 35 WNW BOI SUN 45 W BPI RKS 40 WNW CAG 55 NNE GJT 30 SW GJT 30 NNW U17 15 SSW P38. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...OK...KS AND THE OZARK PLATEAU... A SLOW-MOVING CUTOFF LOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE EWD TONIGHT AND MOVE INTO THE SRN PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY. IN RESPONSE...THE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE OVER THE SRN PLAINS...TRANSPORTING ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM WCNTRL TX NWD INTO OK ON WEDNESDAY. SFC DEWPOINTS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 60S F ACROSS ERN OK AND WRN AR AS THE WELL-ORGANIZED UPPER TROUGH SPREADS A FOCUSED BAND OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT EWD. THIS SHOULD MAKE THE ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR SCATTERED STRONG STORMS WEDNESDAY EVENING AND DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD ACROSS THE REGION. STORMS SHOULD INITIATE ACROSS ECNTRL OK AND ERN KS BY THE EARLY EVENING...EXPANDING AND PROPAGATING EWD ACROSS THE OZARK PLATEAU. AN MCS MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WITH ADEQUATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR SEVERE STORMS (0-6 KM SHEAR AROUND 40 KT). IN ADDITION...LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.0 C/KM AND 500 MB TEMPS OF -15 TO -18 C SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR HAIL. HOWEVER... THE EXTENT OF THE SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY DEPEND ON HOW MUCH SFC HEATING TAKES PLACE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...THE UPPER-TROUGH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE SRN PLAINS WEDNESDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH LIKELIHOOD OF THE EVENT OCCURRING MOSTLY AFTER DARK...SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL SOMEWHAT. ..BROYLES.. 11/09/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Nov 10 05:54:28 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 10 Nov 2004 00:54:28 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200411100554.iAA5smg17259@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 100552 SWODY2 SPC AC 100551 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1151 PM CST TUE NOV 09 2004 VALID 111200Z - 121200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM LRD NIR VCT CLL ACT FTW DUA UMN COU SPI IND UNI 35 S EKN 40 E LYH RWI 70 SSW HSE ...CONT... 35 SSW CHS 65 WNW SAV VLD 55 SW CTY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ACV LMT BOI IDA LND CAG MTJ CEZ BCE CDC P38 DRA 55 NW NID MRY. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVE UPPER AIR PATTERN FCST THROUGH PERIOD...FEATURING AMPLIFICATION OF NRN STREAM TROUGH ACROSS GREAT LAKES AND ONT...AND TWO IN A SERIES OF SRN STREAM LOWS. FIRST LOW -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER SRN CO AND NRN MN -- IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY EWD ACROSS KS/OK BORDER REGION DAY-1. THROUGH THIS PERIOD...EXPECT LOW TO WEAKEN INTO OPEN-WAVE TROUGH AS IT MOVES FROM OZARKS EWD ACROSS TN VALLEY...AND PHASES WITH STRENGTHENING GREAT LAKES TROUGH. ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT -- NOW ANALYZED FROM NWRN NM SWWD ACROSS WRN NEB -- IS FCST TO SWEEP SEWD ACROSS TX/AR/LA AND INTO NWRN GULF DURING DAY-2. AS UPPER TROUGH DEAMPLIFIES...FRONTAL-WAVE CYCLONE AT SFC WILL WEAKEN AS WELL...MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS AR/MS. ...MS DELTA AND GULF COAST STATES... SCATTERED TSTMS POSSIBLE BOTH IN COLD CORE REGION OF MIDLEVEL LOW/TROUGH...AND ALONG/AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT. SEVERE PROBABILITIES ARE KEPT MARGINAL ATTM BECAUSE OF NUMEROUS MIXED/OFFSETTING FCST SIGNALS. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS FCST TO STRENGTHEN WITH NWD EXTENT FROM GULF COAST...WHILE LOW LEVEL THETAE WILL BE STRONGER NEAR COAST. ALTHOUGH UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BE WEAKENING WITH TIME...VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL. MAIN CONCERN IS INCOMPLETE MOISTURE RETURN AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS ON BUOYANCY. BROAD AREA OF PARTIALLY MODIFIED RETURN FLOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS THIS REGION AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT. TRAJECTORIES ACROSS GULF WILL HAVE BEEN RATHER SHORT...EXCEPT FOR RELATIVELY NARROW CORRIDOR IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT WHERE LOW-MID 60S F SFC DEW POINTS ARE POSSIBLE. WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED ASCENT WEAKENING...AND EXTENSIVE PRECIP FIELDS LIKELY...EXPECT MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ONLY SLIGHTLY ABOVE MOIST ADIABATIC. THIS FACTOR...ALONG WITH LIKELIHOOD OF PREFRONTAL LOW CLOUDS TO LIMIT INSOLATION...SHOULD KEEP MLCAPES UNDER 1000 J/KG OVER MOST AREAS. ..EDWARDS.. 11/10/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Nov 10 17:25:53 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 10 Nov 2004 12:25:53 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200411101726.iAAHQBg03195@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 101723 SWODY2 SPC AC 101722 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1122 AM CST WED NOV 10 2004 VALID 111200Z - 121200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W MFE 30 NE AUS 20 WNW PRX 20 S UMN 35 E SGF 30 SE MVN 25 WNW HTS 25 N BKW 30 ESE LYH 25 W ECG 15 NNE HSE ...CONT... 20 NNE SSI 20 NNE AYS 30 NNE VLD 35 SE TLH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM EKA 65 N LMT 65 NNW BNO BKE 65 WSW 27U 55 SE RIW 40 NNW LAR 10 W FCL 30 SSW 4FC 25 ESE GJT 50 E MLF 55 N P38 30 WSW BIH 10 SSW MRY. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...MS/ERN LA/ERN AR/SW TN/WRN AL... A CUTOFF LOW ACROSS THE SRN/CNTRL PLAINS WILL FILL AND DRIFT EWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY BY MIDDAY THURSDAY. THIS WILL HELP DRIVE A COLD FRONT EWD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SUPPORT A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL BE ONGOING NEAR THE MS RIVER AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. THE LINE WILL MOVE EWD INTO MS BY EARLY AFTERNOON ENCOUNTERING HIGHER SFC DEWPOINTS AND STRONGER INSTABILITY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW 30 TO 40 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WHICH MAY SUPPORT A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS. ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE MARGINAL...500 MB TEMPS OF -13 TO -15 C AND WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AROUND 10000 FT ACROSS CNTRL/NRN MS AND NW AL SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR HAIL WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. HOWEVER...THE HAIL POTENTIAL SHOULD BE LIMITED SOMEWHAT DUE TO THE WEAK INSTABILITY FORECAST. A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT COULD ALSO EXIST DUE TO THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. THE LINEAR MCS SHOULD CONTINUE EWD ACROSS AL DURING THE EVENING HOURS...GRADUALLY WEAKENING DUE TO DECREASING INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION. ..BROYLES.. 11/10/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Nov 11 06:41:43 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 11 Nov 2004 01:41:43 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200411110641.iAB6fxg14755@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 110639 SWODY2 SPC AC 110638 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1238 AM CST THU NOV 11 2004 VALID 121200Z - 131200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PNS SEM BHM CSV LOZ JKL CRW EKN BWI ACY ...CONT... 45 SE JAX 45 SSE CTY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM OTH MFR 10 SE MHS 55 SSW TVL MER MRY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM EVW VEL GUC ALS SAF ONM SOW PRC 55 ENE LAS 60 WSW ELY EKO 50 S TWF EVW. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES FOR THIS PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL LOW NOW OVER NERN OK IS EXPECTED TO BECOME OPEN WAVE TROUGH AND MERGE INTO AMPLIFYING TROUGH ACROSS UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION. MEANWHILE...PACIFIC UPPER LOW -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OFFSHORE NRN CA -- IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND THROUGH DAY-1...THEN DRIFT ACROSS SRN GREAT BASIN REGION THROUGH MOST OF DAY-3. STRONG UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY MOVE ONSHORE NRN CA LATE IN PERIOD -- DESTABILIZING AIR MASS ENOUGH FOR MARGINAL GEN THUNDER POTENTIAL AS IT MERGES INTO WRN SEMICIRCLE OF GREAT BASIN CYCLONE ALOFT. AT SFC...COLD FRONT NOW ANALYZED FROM NRN IL SWWD ACROSS ERN OK AND SW TX IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS ERN GULF COAST...SRN APPALACHIANS AND SRN PIEDMONT THROUGH DAY-2. ...SERN CONUS... TSTMS FCST ALONG/AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT FROM FL PANHANDLE NEWD TO PORTIONS SRN MID-ATLANTIC. GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SFC-BASED CONVECTION SHOULD BE OVER ERN GULF COASTAL PLAIN EARLY IN PERIOD...AND PERHAPS NEWD TOWARD SERN NC BY AFTERNOON/EVENING. STRONGEST LOW LEVEL BUOYANCY -- INVOF GULF COAST -- SHOULD BE HORIZONTALLY DISPLACED FROM MOST FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR OVER SRN APPALACHIANS AND SRN PIEDMONT. MLCAPES 100-500 J/KG ARE PRESENT IN FCST SOUNDINGS AS FAR N AS ILM/MHX REGION...BASED ON OPTIMAL MODIFICATION OF ATLANTIC AIR MASS WITH SFC DEW POINTS LOW-MID 60S F NEAR COAST. MOST PROGS INDICATE RELATIVELY BACKED SFC WINDS IN THIS AREA IN PROXIMITY TO WEAK FRONTAL-WAVE LOW...WHICH MAY ENHANCE 0-3 KM HODOGRAPHS. HOWEVER...WEAK LAPSE RATES AND LACK OF STRONGER DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PRECLUDE SEVERE PROBABILITIES ATTM. ...GREAT BASIN/4 CORNERS AREA... ISOLATED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT PERIOD INVOF COLD-CORE REGION OF UPPER LOW...WHERE STEEPEST MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL CAPE ARE EXPECTED. TSTM POTENTIAL SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED DURING AFTERNOON WHEN SFC HEATING MAXIMIZES DEEP-LAYER LAPSE RATES. PRIND AIRMASS WILL NOT BE UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT. ..EDWARDS.. 11/11/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Nov 11 17:06:00 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 11 Nov 2004 12:06:00 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200411111706.iABH6Eg18506@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 111703 SWODY2 SPC AC 111702 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1102 AM CST THU NOV 11 2004 VALID 121200Z - 131200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E MOB 25 SSW TCL 10 NNE MSL 35 WSW BNA 35 ENE BWG 10 E UNI 20 NE PKB 40 NW EKN 45 SW EKN 10 SE SSU 20 W LYH 35 W RIC 15 S WAL ...CONT... 30 N DAB 55 N PIE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 WNW TCS 30 NNE PHX 25 SW IGM LAS 60 W P38 55 N ELY 25 NNW ENV 45 SSW MLD 15 W EVW 25 NW GUC 40 NE SAF 40 SE ABQ 85 WNW TCS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 S AST EUG 25 S MFR 30 NNW RBL 60 N SAC 35 ESE SAC 25 S SCK 25 SW SJC. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A CLOSED OFF LOW AT 500 MB LOCATED OVER SW MO. THIS FEATURE WILL OPEN...MOVING EWD AND DAMPENING ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN MTNS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS GA AND WRN SC EARLY IN THE PERIOD DUE TO STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. AS INSTABILITY INCREASES DURING THE DAY...CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD EXPAND AS THE STORMS MOVE NEWD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MARGINAL LAPSE RATES AND RELATIVELY WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES. THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EWD THURSDAY AFTERNOON...A LINE OF STORMS SHOULD ORGANIZE ACROSS ERN SC AND CNTRL NC BY 21Z MOVING ACROSS ERN NC DURING THE EVENING HOURS AND OFFSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT. ..BROYLES.. 11/11/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Nov 12 06:07:14 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 12 Nov 2004 01:07:14 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200411120607.iAC67Rg32427@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 120605 SWODY2 SPC AC 120604 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1204 AM CST FRI NOV 12 2004 VALID 131200Z - 141200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S CTY 25 SSE SSI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W PRB 40 NNE OXR DAG 35 S SGU PGA 40 NNW GUP 35 SSW DMN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSW P07 30 WNW INK 45 E ROW 40 ESE TCC 50 ENE AMA CSM 35 ESE SPS 10 SSE CLL 25 WSW GLS. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... BROAD...MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND 4-CORNERS REGION THROUGH THE DAY 2 PERIOD WITH TWO WELL-DEFINED PERTURBATIONS FORECAST TO ROTATE THROUGH THE MEAN PATTERN. THE LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH /CURRENTLY NEAR SAN FRANCISCO BAY/ IS EXPECTED TO EJECT NEWD FROM NRN MEXICO ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY...PRIOR TO LIFTING MORE NWD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...THE NEXT UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE /OBSERVED NEAR 42N/142W PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/ WILL DIG SEWD ALONG THE CA COAST INTO THE TROUGH BASE OVER NRN BAJA CA/GULF OF CA BY SUNDAY MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...EXPANSIVE ANTICYCLONE E OF THE ROCKIES WILL MAINTAIN A DRY...STABLE AIR MASS ACROSS MUCH OF THE ERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE NATION. ...TX... MOISTURE RETURN WITHIN REGION OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT FROM THE NWRN GULF OF MEXICO NWD ACROSS TX WILL SUPPORT POCKETS OF WEAK INSTABILITY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ELEVATED TSTMS AS LEAD DISTURBANCE LIFTS NEWD ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. ...SWRN STATES... STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INCREASED LARGE-SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING 80-90 KT JET STREAK ARE EXPECTED TO LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN CA ESEWD INTO AZ. THOUGH INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN WEAK...THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND COOL TEMPERATURE PROFILES MAY SUPPORT SOME SMALL HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. ...FL... POTENTIAL FOR A FEW TSTMS WILL EXIST ALONG AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT SAGGING SWD ACROSS THE PENINSULA WITHIN WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPES OF AROUND 500 J/KG. ..MEAD.. 11/12/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Nov 12 17:32:14 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 12 Nov 2004 12:32:14 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200411121732.iACHWPg23712@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 121729 SWODY2 SPC AC 121728 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1128 AM CST FRI NOV 12 2004 VALID 131200Z - 141200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S CTY 25 SSE SSI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSW P07 30 WNW INK 45 E ROW 40 ESE TCC 50 ENE AMA CSM 35 ESE SPS 10 SSE CLL 25 WSW GLS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W PRB 40 NNE OXR DAG 35 S SGU PGA 40 NNW GUP 35 SSW DMN. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... AN UPPER-LOW OVER THE WRN US WILL BROADEN SATURDAY AS AN UPPER-RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE CNTRL US. AT THE SFC...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WILL SLIDE SLOWLY EWD ALLOWING FOR LITTLE MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH SATURDAY. STRONG ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-TROUGH WILL PROMOTE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE SRN PLAINS. ANOTHER AREA OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST UNDER THE UPPER-LOW. A THIRD AREA IS POSSIBLE ACROSS FL ASSOCIATED SFC HEATING AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A COLD FRONT. ..BROYLES.. 11/12/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Nov 13 05:41:19 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 13 Nov 2004 00:41:19 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200411130541.iAD5fTg22294@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 130539 SWODY2 SPC AC 130538 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1138 PM CST FRI NOV 12 2004 VALID 141200Z - 151200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE ELP 30 SSE CNM 55 SSE CDS 55 ESE SPS 55 NNE CLL 40 SSW LFK 35 SSW HUM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNE SRQ 30 SE DAB. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST... MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE SHARPENING TROUGH FROM THE CNTRL ROCKIES INTO NRN MEXICO. LATEST SHORT-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM SWD FROM NEAR THE 4-CORNERS REGION INTO SONORA MEXICO BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS IS LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO STRONG UPPER JET CURRENTLY OFF THE NRN CA COAST /PER GOES WATER VAPOR DERIVED WINDS/...WHICH WILL DIVE SWD INTO TROUGH BASE. AT THE SURFACE...PRIMARY SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN WELL S OF INTERNATIONAL BORDER WITH RIDGE AXIS REMAINING ENTRENCHED OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. INCREASING ELY BOUNDARY-LAYER FLOW OVER THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MODIFICATION OF CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR MASS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DEWPOINTS TO INCREASE INTO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS DEEP S TX AND ADJACENT COASTAL PLAIN. PERSISTENT SELY LLJ IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN TRANSPORT OF MODIFIED GULF AIR MASS NWWD ABOVE STABLE BOUNDARY-LAYER...CONTRIBUTING TO POCKETS OF WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY INTO PORTIONS OF NRN AND WRN TX. LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT PATTERN...AS WELL AS WITH ANY WEAK DISTURBANCES EJECTING OUT OF TROUGH BASE...WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SOME ELEVATED TSTM ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...ANY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL REMAIN NEGLIGIBLE OWING TO THE WEAK INSTABILITY. ..MEAD.. 11/13/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Nov 13 17:20:30 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 13 Nov 2004 12:20:30 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200411131720.iADHKcg31172@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 131717 SWODY2 SPC AC 131716 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1116 AM CST SAT NOV 13 2004 VALID 141200Z - 151200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE DUG 15 NE ROW 50 SE CDS 40 NNW FTW 40 SE DAL 65 NNE CLL 40 S LFK LCH 30 SE 7R4. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... AN UPPER-LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL SLOWLY DIG SWD TONIGHT AND SUNDAY INTO NRN MEXICO. AROUND THE EAST SIDE OF THE LOW...SSW FLOW ALOFT WILL SPREAD STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED...A DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL JET WILL PROVIDE ISENTROPIC LIFT FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY ACROSS TX. ..BROYLES.. 11/13/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Nov 14 05:47:05 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 14 Nov 2004 00:47:05 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200411140547.iAE5lCg17322@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 140545 SWODY2 SPC AC 140544 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1144 PM CST SAT NOV 13 2004 VALID 151200Z - 161200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 E DUG 20 SSE SVC 20 WNW ALM 40 SSW ROW 30 NE HOB 30 WNW CDS LTS 15 NNE SPS 10 SE FTW 55 W LFK 30 NNW LCH 20 SW HUM. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE LOWER CO VALLEY IS FORECAST TO DIG SWD THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY 1 PERIOD...PRIOR TO SHIFTING SLOWLY EWD ACROSS NRN MEXICO ON MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN OVER ERN CHIHUAHUA/WRN COAHUILA MEXICO WITH AN ATTENDANT INVERTED TROUGH STRENGTHENING OVER PORTIONS OF WRN TX. ...TX... QUALITY LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WILL REMAIN PROBLEMATIC THIS FORECAST OWING TO INFLUENCE OF LARGE OH VALLEY ANTICYCLONE ON GULF OF MEXICO SURFACE TRAJECTORIES. CURRENT BUOY OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE NRN GULF INDICATE DEWPOINTS LARGELY IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. SOME NWWD ADVECTION OF THIS MOISTURE WILL LIKELY OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO INTENSIFICATION OF INVERTED TROUGH OVER WRN TX. DESPITE THIS...IT APPEARS THAT PERSISTENT CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION AND RESULTANT WEAK LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SLOW THE DESTABILIZATION PROCESS. THOUGH CLUSTERS OF TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM NEAR THE INVERTED TROUGH SEWD TO THE COAST...THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. ..MEAD.. 11/14/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Nov 14 17:31:19 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 14 Nov 2004 12:31:19 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200411141731.iAEHVOg17188@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 141729 SWODY2 SPC AC 141728 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1128 AM CST SUN NOV 14 2004 VALID 151200Z - 161200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ESE DUG 50 SW DMN 25 WSW DMN 30 NNE DMN 20 WNW ALM 40 SW ROW 60 W LBB 15 ENE PVW 20 N CDS LTS 15 N SPS 10 SSE FTW 50 W LFK 30 NNW LCH 20 SW HUM. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... AN UPPER-TROUGH ACROSS NRN MEXICO WILL CONTINUE A SLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS MONDAY. ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND WIDESPREAD ASCENT ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL CREATE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE MOST WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY SHOULD OCCUR AT NIGHT AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES LIFT ACROSS THE REGION. ACROSS SOUTH TX...SFC-BASED STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG A STALLED FRONT WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S F WITH MODEST INSTABILITY IN PLACE BY AFTERNOON. ..BROYLES.. 11/14/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Nov 18 06:56:57 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 18 Nov 2004 01:56:57 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200411180659.iAI6x0E15238@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 180655 SWODY2 SPC AC 180654 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1254 AM CST THU NOV 18 2004 VALID 191200Z - 201200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E CRP 15 WSW COT 45 SW JCT 10 S BGS 45 NE HOB 35 NW ONM 30 SE FMN 30 SW ALS 55 N CAO 10 SSE EHA 15 NW GAG 15 N CSM 20 E LTS 20 E SPS 40 ENE DUA 10 S FSM 25 N UMN FLV 45 SE OMA 50 WNW DSM 25 SSW ALO 20 NW MLI 30 NE PIA 25 SE DNV 35 SE IND 25 ENE SDF 30 S BWG 40 SW BNA 35 ENE TUP 15 WNW CBM 15 NE MEI 60 NNE MOB 15 S PNS. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... HIGHLY AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE DURING THE DAY 2 PERIOD AS A STRONG LARGE SCALE TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. A COUPLE OF DEAMPLIFYING SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCES DOWNSTREAM FROM THE DIGGING WESTERN TROUGH WILL ACCELERATE ENEWD ACROSS MIDSECTION OF THE CONUS THROUGH FRIDAY. ONE OF THESE FEATURES...CURRENTLY AN OCCLUDING CYCLONE OVER OK...WILL OPEN UP AND PARTIALLY PHASE WITH A NRN STREAM IMPULSE WHILE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY. A LOWER AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY APPROACHING SRN CA WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST TO THE SRN PLAINS BY FRIDAY NIGHT...AND THEN TO THE MIDWEST/MID MS VALLEY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. DEEP LAYER OFFSHORE FLOW CURRENTLY EXISTS ACROSS THE TX GULF COAST IN THE WAKE OF THE SRN PLAINS UPPER LOW AND WEAK FROPA. HOWEVER... MOIST SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME REESTABLISHED BY EARLY FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT MID LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE WESTERN TROUGH. AS WARM/MOIST AIR STREAMS INLAND ACROSS SERN TX ATOP COOLER SURFACE-BASED AIRMASS...WARM CONVEYOR BELT CONVECTION WILL LIKELY EXPAND LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. ...SE TX... BOTH ETA AND GFS HAVE BEEN TRENDING IN THE DIRECTION OF GREATER INSTABILITY ACROSS THE NWRN GULF AND THE TX COASTAL PLAIN OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS AS WEAKENING LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE REMAINS CLOSE TO SHORE. THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY MOVE BACK ONSHORE WITH 65-70F DEWPOINTS POSSIBLE IN THE WARM SECTOR BY FRIDAY MORNING. FORCING FOR ASCENT ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN WEAK UNTIL LATER FRIDAY WHEN BROAD CYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS AND STJ SPEED MAX IS FORECAST TO APPROACH S TX FROM NRN MEXICO. AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT DEEPENS AND STRENGTHENS IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING IMPULSE...EXPECT ELEVATED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP BY LATE IN THE PERIOD. PROXIMITY TO MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG...STRONG SHEAR...AND INCREASING ASCENT NORTH OF DEVELOPING SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ELEVATED SUPERCELLS WITHIN THE LARGER AREA OF CONVECTION. A COUPLE OF HAIL/WIND REPORTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THIS ACTIVITY INCREASES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING. ..CARBIN.. 11/18/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Nov 18 17:25:12 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 18 Nov 2004 12:25:12 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200411181727.iAIHRfE01211@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 181724 SWODY2 SPC AC 181723 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1123 AM CST THU NOV 18 2004 VALID 191200Z - 201200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E CRP 15 WSW COT 45 WSW JCT 30 ENE BGS 15 SSW TCC 45 SW CAO 10 SSW EHA 35 NW CSM 50 SE SPS 20 E DUA 10 NW PGO 15 NW SGF 40 NW ALN 30 NW EVV 10 SSW BWG 55 SW BNA 25 SSW CBM 60 NNE MOB 15 S PNS. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE INTO LATE WEEK AS A LARGE SCALE TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THE SUBTROPICAL JET ALONG THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACTIVE AND CARRY THE DISTURBANCE APPROACHING NRN BAJA INTO NRN MEXICO AND S TX BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE NWRN GULF WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT NWWD INTO SERN TX AGAIN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THE HIGHEST TSTM PROBABILITIES DURING THE DAY 2 PERIOD. ...SERN TX... RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN IN EARNEST FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAK APPROACHES S TX. LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE LURKING JUST OFFSHORE WILL MOVE NWWD ONTO THE CNTRL/UPPER TX COAST BY FRIDAY NIGHT. ENHANCED LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL PROBABLY BE DELAYED UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN THE DISTURBANCE SHOULD BE MOVING INTO S TX. THUS...ELEVATED CONVECTION THAT SHOULD DEVELOP FRIDAY WILL INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS SERN TX. INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR IN THE CAPE BEARING LAYER WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLD SUPERCELLS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. MORE SURFACE BASED TSTMS MAY FORM VCNTY THE RETREATING FRONT ACROSS THE MID-UPPER COASTAL PLAINS VERY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY AND RISKS FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND BRIEF TORNADOES COULD INCREASE. GIVEN THAT THE THESE THREATS WILL MAINLY EXIST LATE IN THE DAY 2 PERIOD...WILL MAINTAIN ONLY LOW PROBABILITIES ATTM. ..RACY.. 11/18/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Nov 19 05:34:41 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 19 Nov 2004 00:34:41 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200411190536.iAJ5agE30160@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 190535 SWODY2 SPC AC 190534 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1134 PM CST THU NOV 18 2004 VALID 201200Z - 211200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 WSW TUS 40 SW PRC 20 SW GCN 25 NW 4BL 20 NW MTJ 10 N GUC 40 NNW ALS 30 NNW LVS 60 ENE 4CR 35 S CVS 50 WNW CDS 45 WSW CSM 25 N FSI 25 WNW ADM 15 SW DUA 35 NW GGG 30 ENE SHV 40 SW GLH 25 SW TUP 30 NNE TCL 10 NE SEM 25 WSW PNS. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...WRN/CNTRL GULF COAST STATES... LATE EVENING MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS SOME VARIABILITY WITH DIGGING TROUGH ACROSS THE 4-CORNERS REGION. ETA MODEL IS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND FASTER WITH HEIGHT FALLS INTO THE SRN ROCKIES LATE DAY2...WHILE THE GFS MAINTAINS A BIT MORE RIDGING ALONG THE TX COAST. IN EITHER SCENARIO IT APPEARS WEAK WARM ADVECTION WILL PERSIST FROM THE MIDDLE TX COAST...NEWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION. THIS WILL MAINTAIN OR HEIGHTEN A COASTAL BOUNDARY THAT SHOULD PROVE EFFICIENT IN GENERATING DEEP CONVECTION MUCH OF THE PERIOD. RESULTANT WARM SECTOR AND HIGHER THETA-E AIR WILL STRUGGLE TO SPREAD TOO FAR INLAND PREVENTING SIGNIFICANT DESTABILIZATION. LATEST THINKING IS SCATTERED-NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL EVOLVE AND SPREAD NEWD FROM THE MIDDLE TX COAST INTO LA. DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT STORM ROTATION BUT MARGINAL THERMAL PROFILES AND RELATIVELY WEAK LOW LEVEL SHEAR WARRANTS ONLY LOW PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS ZONE. ..DARROW.. 11/19/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Nov 19 16:43:39 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 19 Nov 2004 11:43:39 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200411191645.iAJGjbE11849@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 191635 SWODY2 SPC AC 191635 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1035 AM CST FRI NOV 19 2004 VALID 201200Z - 211200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DRT 15 ENE BGS 40 SW AMA 50 N CDS ADM 35 WSW TXK 10 S GLH 20 S TUP 20 WSW BHM 15 SSE SEM 15 SW PNS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 ESE PHX 50 W PRC 45 ENE LAS 20 S CNY 35 SE GUC 35 E ABQ 35 W TCS 10 WSW SAD 65 ESE PHX. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SERN TX COAST INTO SRN LA... LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL UPPER FLOW PATTERN CAN BE EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND AS LARGE SCALE TROUGH DIGS IN THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. SUBTROPICAL JETLETS EJECTING AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE NRN MEXICO INTO TX AND THE LOWER MS VLY THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT TIMING OF THESE DISTURBANCES WILL REMAIN DIFFICULT. BAROCLINIC ZONE MOVING TO VCNTY SERN TX COAST SHOULD REMAIN THERE ON SATURDAY AS ANY MEANINGFUL LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS REMAIN UPSTREAM ACROSS THE SRN DESERTS/GREAT BASIN. THIS FRONT...THOUGH...WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR PERIODIC TSTM CLUSTERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WEAK WARM ADVECTION REGIME...ENHANCED AT TIMES BY WEAK SUBTROPICAL JETLETS...WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY FROM SERN TX INTO SRN LA. LARGELY ELEVATED TSTMS CAN BE EXPECTED TO EXPAND NEWD FROM TONIGHTS ACTIVITY INTO SRN LA SATURDAY...THOUGH MORE SURFACE BASED TSTMS MAY FORM VCNTY THE FRONT ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON/ NIGHT. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN ENOUGH FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS...BUT GIVEN POOR MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WEAK INSTABILITY...THE THREATS FOR SEVERE APPEAR LOW ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE A CATEGORICAL SLGT RISK ATTM. ..RACY.. 11/19/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Nov 20 04:58:51 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 19 Nov 2004 23:58:51 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200411200500.iAK50lE24446@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 200459 SWODY2 SPC AC 200458 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1058 PM CST FRI NOV 19 2004 VALID 211200Z - 221200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SSW GBN 35 ENE YUM 35 NNE BLH 60 W GCN 40 NW U17 15 WSW CNY 10 ESE GJT 10 NNE GUC 10 SSE ALS 50 SSE SAF 60 E 4CR 30 S CVS 15 N PVW 10 W CDS 20 NNW SPS 35 SW DUA 45 NNE TYR 30 SE ELD 30 ENE GWO 20 NNE GAD 30 NW AHN 40 NNW AGS 45 SSW AGS 25 NNE ABY 15 SW DHN 15 E GPT 25 S HUM. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SOUTH TX/LA COAST... LATEST MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO SLOW EWD PROGRESSION OF DIGGING UPPER LOW ACROSS THE SWRN U.S. SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH THIS FEATURE WILL NOT AFFECT SOUTH TX/LA UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK...PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL LIKELY BE RESPONSIBLE FOR EPISODIC DEEP CONVECTIVE EVENTS ALONG NWD DRIFTING COASTAL FRONT. THE MAIN IMPEDIMENT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS ZONE IS THE EXPECTED WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW INTO THE BOUNDARY. IN ADDITION...CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AND PRECIPITATION WILL UNDOUBTEDLY LIMIT OVERALL DESTABILIZATION WITH RESULTANT MARGINAL LAPSE RATES NOT PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR A LOT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. EVEN SO...IT APPEARS SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT ROTATING THUNDERSTORMS...AND WITH A SLOW MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER THERE WILL BE AT LEAST LOW PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ..DARROW.. 11/20/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Nov 20 16:57:05 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 20 Nov 2004 11:57:05 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200411201659.iAKGx0E07289@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 201657 SWODY2 SPC AC 201656 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1056 AM CST SAT NOV 20 2004 VALID 211200Z - 221200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SSW GBN 35 ENE YUM 35 NNE BLH 60 W GCN 40 NW U17 15 WSW CNY 10 ESE GJT 10 NNE GUC 10 SSE ALS 50 SSE SAF 60 E 4CR 30 S CVS 15 N PVW 10 W CDS 20 NNW SPS 35 SW DUA 45 NNE TYR 30 SE ELD 30 ENE GWO 20 NNE GAD 30 NW AHN 40 NNW AGS 45 SSW AGS 25 NNE ABY 15 SW DHN 15 E GPT 25 S HUM. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... THE UPPER LOW DIGGING SWD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN ATTM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE DESERTS ON SUNDAY BEFORE TURNING EWD TOWARD THE SRN ROCKIES SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY. THE SUB-TROPICAL JET WILL REMAIN ACTIVE DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS FEATURE...WITH NUMEROUS LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EJECTING ACROSS CNTRL/NRN MEXICO ACROSS TX AND INTO THE LOWER MS VLY. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...FRONT NOW LOCATED VCNTY THE SERN TX COAST WWD INTO DEEP S TX MAY DRIFT A LITTLE FARTHER N BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR TSTMS. ...SCNTRL-SERN TX AND SRN LA... TSTMS WILL BE ONGOING EARLY SUNDAY FROM SERN TX INTO SRN LA AS MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH...NOW MOVING ACROSS NM...EJECTS INTO THE LOWER MS VLY. IN ITS WAKE...WEAK LARGE SCALE RIDGING DEVELOPING ACROSS TX...DOWNSTREAM FROM THE DIGGING DESERT UPPER LOW...MAY CAUSE A DECREASE OR WEAKENING OF THE DEEP CONVECTION SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS WILL ONCE AGAIN SPREAD EWD ACROSS SCNTRL- SERN TX LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. RENEWED WARM ADVECTION REGIME WILL GENERATE ANOTHER ROUND OF TSTMS ALONG/NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING...PRIMARILY ACROSS CNTRL-NRN TX. ENOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL EXIST FOR ISOLD EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS CLOSER TO THE FRONT. MAIN SEVERE THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL GIVEN LARGELY ELEVATED NATURE TO THE CELLS. BUT...IF MORE SURFACE BASED ACTIVITY CAN FORM IN THE MOISTENING WARM SECTOR...DAMAGING WINDS/ISOLD TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. AT THIS POINT...TIMING DETAILS OF IMPENDING SHORTWAVES AND QUESTIONS ON MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY WILL PRECLUDE CATEGORICAL SLGT RISKS/HIGHER PROBABILITIES. ..RACY.. 11/20/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Nov 21 05:31:21 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 21 Nov 2004 00:31:21 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200411210533.iAL5XEE10023@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 210530 SWODY2 SPC AC 210530 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1130 PM CST SAT NOV 20 2004 VALID 221200Z - 231200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE CRP 15 N DRT 55 ENE P07 50 SE LBB 20 SW CDS 25 SE LTS 35 SW DUA 35 N TYR 55 S SHV 25 SSE POE 25 SSW LCH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 WSW TUS 20 NE GBN 60 WSW PRC 65 NNE IGM 35 SW BCE 35 SW 4HV 50 SE CNY 35 SSW GUC 45 SE ALS 15 NW DHT 20 SSE GAG 10 NNW TUL 35 ESE SGF 30 SW PAH BNA 10 N CHA 30 W ATL 30 NE MGM 30 NW LUL 35 SSE HEZ 25 WSW 7R4. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF TX... ...TX... SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUNS APPEAR TO BE CONVERGING ON A LATE DAY2/EARLY DAY3 UPPER TROUGH EJECTION INTO TX. STRONG HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD ALLOWING LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE TO SHARPEN FROM A SFC LOW POSITION OVER THE SRN TX PANHANDLE. PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE ISOLATED-SCT THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MIDDLE TX COAST...NEWD INTO LA. HOWEVER THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT NWD AS WARM FRONT BEGINS TO RESPOND TO UPSTREAM TROUGH. RESULTANT WARM SECTOR EXPANSION WILL ALLOW MUCH OF THE MAIN BODY OF TX TO RECOVER SUFFICIENTLY FOR SFC-BASED CONVECTION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. WITH DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR EXPECTED TO SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION...THE MAIN QUESTION FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE DEGREE OF RECOVERY AND TIMING OF LARGE SCALE FORCING. LACK OF SIGNIFICANT HEATING AND LATE NIGHT INFLUENCE OF UPPER TROUGH FAVOR AN INCREASING THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 00Z/23RD. A FORCED SQUALL LINE MAY EVOLVE AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG COLD FRONT WHILE MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE WITH BROADER WARM ADVECTION ZONE DOWNSTREAM. ..DARROW.. 11/21/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Nov 21 17:05:12 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 21 Nov 2004 12:05:12 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200411211707.iALH73E17827@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 211704 SWODY2 SPC AC 211703 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1103 AM CST SUN NOV 21 2004 VALID 221200Z - 231200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSE VCT 10 NNW COT 25 E DRT 50 SE MAF 55 SE LBB 30 SSE CDS 15 NW SPS 35 SW DUA 35 N TYR 55 S SHV 25 SSE POE 25 SSW LCH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 WSW TUS 20 NE GBN 60 WSW PRC 65 NNE IGM 35 SW BCE 35 SW 4HV 50 SE CNY 35 SSW GUC 45 SE ALS 15 NW DHT 20 SSE GAG 25 NW MKO 25 NE HRO 10 N DYR 45 S BNA 10 N CHA 30 W ATL 15 SE TOI 10 ENE PNS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 S CRP 45 S LRD. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF TX... ...SYNOPSIS... POWERFUL UPPER LOW NOW OVER SRN CA WILL BEGIN TO TURN EAST TODAY... THEN ACCELERATE EWD ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES TO THE SRN PLAINS BY MONDAY NIGHT. SURFACE FRONT VCNTY SCNTRL-SERN TX WILL MOVE NWD AS THE FLOW BACKS AHEAD OF THE UPPER SYSTEM ON MONDAY. LEE LOW WILL INTENSIFY OVER THE TX PNHDL LATE IN THE PERIOD AS A PACIFIC FRONT MIGRATES INTO W TX. ...SRN PLAINS/TX... LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH UPSTREAM UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN SPREADING EWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS/TX...PRIMARILY MONDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD BEGIN TO EXPAND NWD INTO AT LEAST CNTRL TX. THIS WILL LIKELY SET THE STAGE FOR INCREASING SEVERE PROBABILITIES. LATE ARRIVAL OF MEANINGFUL HEIGHT FALLS PROBABLY WILL RESULT IN MOST OF THE SEVERE WEATHER OCCURRING POST 00Z/23. UNTIL THEN...HOWEVER...A FEW ORGANIZED TSTMS MAY BE EMBEDDED WITHIN CONVECTIVE BAND ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT ACROSS SERN TX EARLY IN THE DAY. IF SURFACE BASED STORMS CAN FORM... DAMAGING WINDS/ISOLD TORNADOES COULD DEVELOP...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH. AS THE STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT ARRIVES LATE MONDAY NIGHT...TSTMS WILL LIKELY BECOME STRONGER ALONG THE WARM FRONT FROM CNTRL THROUGH ERN TX. MEANWHILE...IF MODEL TIMING OF UPPER SYSTEM IS CORRECT...TSTMS MAY INITIATE ALONG THE PACIFIC FRONT ACROSS WCNTRL TX LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THESE STORMS WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE SEVERE WITH HAIL AND HIGH WINDS AS THEY MOVE ENEWD TOWARD CNTRL-NRN TX...MAINLY IN THE DAY 3 PERIOD. ..RACY.. 11/21/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Nov 22 06:34:47 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 22 Nov 2004 01:34:47 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200411220636.iAM6abE16798@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 220634 SWODY2 SPC AC 220634 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1234 AM CST MON NOV 22 2004 VALID 231200Z - 241200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WNW GLS 45 SW LFK 35 SSE TYR 25 NE GGG 35 WSW ELD 30 NNW MLU 40 ESE MLU 30 NNW BTR 30 ESE 7R4. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NE CRP SAT 45 ENE JCT 30 ENE ABI 15 NW SPS 15 ESE OKC 15 SSW SGF 25 S BLV 25 WNW EVV 25 NE BWG 40 WSW CSV 15 S BHM 25 SE GPT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW DUG 60 WNW SAD 40 SSW INW 70 NE INW 40 NNW 4SL 30 SW DHT 65 ENE AMA 40 SW END 30 SE CNU 10 NW ALN 15 ESE DNV 20 NE MIE 35 WNW CMH UNI 25 SE 5I3 30 N ATL 25 S CEW. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SERN TX AND LA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK FROM CNTRL TX INTO WRN KY... ...LOWER MS VALLEY/GULF COAST... 00Z MODEL RUNS PROVIDE REASONABLE CONFIDENCE THAT UPPER TROUGH WILL EJECT ACROSS TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY2 PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW MARITIME BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS...SFC DEW POINTS AROUND 70F...TO RETURN ACROSS SERN TX/LA AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD. AS UPPER SPEED MAX TRANSLATES RAPIDLY DOWNSTREAM...VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR AND SFC CYCLOGENESIS SHOULD CONSOLIDATE OVER AR AFTER 00Z/24TH. IT APPEARS INCREASING WLY FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL TX WILL ALLOW BOUNDARY LAYER TO WARM/DEEPEN...ENHANCING INSTABILITY IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF MODIFIED DRY LINE/PACIFIC FRONT. WITH LLJ EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY...IT APPEARS WARM ADVECTION MAY GENERATE ISOLATED SUPERCELLS AHEAD OF THE MAIN FRONTAL ZONE. SECONDARY SEVERE DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR WITHIN EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET ALONG THE RED RIVER REGION OF NCNTRL TX. GIVEN THE RAPID EJECTION OF THIS TROUGH ACROSS A RECOVERING WARM SECTOR THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE AND TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MDT RISK OUTLOOK. ..DARROW.. 11/22/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Nov 22 18:02:07 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 22 Nov 2004 13:02:07 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200411221803.iAMI3tE31058@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 221801 SWODY2 SPC AC 221800 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1200 PM CST MON NOV 22 2004 VALID 231200Z - 241200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ENE CRP 25 SSE AUS 55 SSW TYR 20 WNW SHV 25 WNW MLU 35 NNE JAN 20 SSE MEI 40 S LUL 40 W BVE. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 S CRP 50 WNW HDO 35 NE JCT 30 ENE ABI 20 E SPS MLC 10 WNW UNO 20 W CGI 20 E PAH 15 SW CKV 25 ENE MSL 25 WSW BHM 10 N PNS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW DUG 60 WNW SAD 40 SSW INW 70 NE INW 40 NNW 4SL 30 SW DHT 65 ENE AMA 40 SW END 30 SE CNU 10 NW ALN 15 ESE DNV 20 NE MIE 35 WNW CMH UNI 25 SE 5I3 35 NNW MCN 15 NNE AQQ. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SERN AND E CENTRAL TX...MUCH OF LA INTO SRN MS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS AND WRN TN VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... POSSIBILITY OF A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE DEVELOPING FOR TUESDAY AS VIGOROUS MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW STILL OVER THE SWRN AZ/NRN BAJA REGION EJECTS ENEWD THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. MODELS SEEM A LITTLE SLOWER AS THEY USUALLY ARE WITH CLOSED UPPER SYSTEMS. TIMING NOW SEEMS TO MOVE THIS SYSTEM FROM S CENTRAL/SERN NM AROUND 23/12Z THROUGH NRN PARTS OF TX BETWEEN 23/21Z AND 24/03Z TO OVER THE OK/AR BORDER BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AT 24/12Z. MODELS ALSO SEEM TO BE A BIT DISORGANIZED IN MANAGING THE SPLIT FLOW TYPE REGIME AS THEY BRING ONE STRONG COLD FRONT SWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST...WHILE STILL HANDLING HOW THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH SWRN U.S. UPPER SYSTEM MAKES ITS WAY INTO TX. BEST ESTIMATION AT THIS TIME WOULD BE THAT STRONG CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR NEAR THE DFW METROPLEX BY 24/00Z WITH A STRONG SURFACE DRYLINE THAT WILL EXTEND SWD THRU CENTRAL TX THEN SWWD NEAR THE LRD AREA. THIS COMBINATION OF COLD FRONT MOVING SWD THROUGH WRN TX AND DRYLINE/SURFACE TROUGH FEATURE INTO ERN TX AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL RESULT IN STRONG FORCING OF HIGHLY SHEARED AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS LATE TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. ...SERN QUARTER OF TX THRU LA INTO CENTRAL MS... SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM THE DFW METROPLEX AT 24/00Z NEWD ACROSS SERN OK INTO NWRN AR BY 24/12Z. SURFACE TROF/DRYLINE SHOULD BE LOCATED SWD THRU CENTRAL AND S CENTRAL TX AND ADVANCE EWD ACROSS ERN TX LINING SWD FROM SWRN AR THRU WRN LA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. MODELS SEEM TO INDICATE WEAK INSTABILITY GRADIENT/WARM FRONTAL/RAIN-COOLED BOUNDARY THAT WILL EXTEND E-W ACROSS NRN LA INTO CENTRAL MS WHICH MAY BE A FOCUS FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. AIR MASS HAS DEW POINTS THAT ARE CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S AND THAT IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE THROUGH TOMORROW. MODELS GENERATE LIFTED INDICES OF -8 TO -10 OVER PARTS OF SERN TX...AND MUCAPE VALUES OF 2000 TO 2500 J/KG. LOW LEVEL JET OF 50-60 KT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY TUESDAY EVENING AS STRONG SRN BRANCH OF A 110-130 KT UPPER LEVEL JET EXTENDS FROM EXTREME S TX NEWD INTO SRN AL PLACING REGION IN FAVORABLE EXIT REGION ENHANCING UVVS. THIS LEADS TO DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 50-70 KT ACROSS THE SERN TX COASTAL AREAS INTO LA...AND THE ENVIRONMENT WOULD BE SET UP FOR SUPERCELLS/ISOLATED TORNADOES AHEAD OF DEVELOPING SQUALL LINE NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH/DRYLINE. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE THUS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW FORMS NEAR DFW SWD THROUGH AUS AND MOVE EWD ACROSS ERN TX AND WRN LA ACCOMPANIED BY DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL AND TORNADOES. SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED JUST AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE EWD IN VICINITY OF INSTABILITY GRADIENT IN HIGH SHEAR MODERATE CAPE ENVIRONMENT WHERE 0-1KM HELICITY IF FORECAST AROUND 200 M2/S2 AND LCL/LFC LEVELS ARE BELOW 2000 FT. THIS WOULD INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STRONG TORNADOES FROM EXTREME SERN TX ENEWD INTO SWRN PARTS OF MS TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. ..MCCARTHY.. 11/22/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 23 05:53:34 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 23 Nov 2004 00:53:34 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200411230555.iAN5tKE24574@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 230553 SWODY2 SPC AC 230552 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1152 PM CST MON NOV 22 2004 VALID 241200Z - 251200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW CGI 40 E MDH 30 NNW SDF 30 NNE LEX 25 WNW JKL 15 S LOZ 10 NW CSV 45 NNW HSV 35 SSW MKL 35 WSW DYR 25 SSW CGI. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW 7R4 30 N MCB 25 WNW MEI 30 E 0A8 30 NE CSG 35 ENE MGR 20 E AQQ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S LCH 25 SSW GWO 40 N GWO 50 WSW MEM 50 SW ARG 25 SE UNO 50 N POF 15 SW MIE 20 NNE CLE ...CONT... 15 ENE EFK 35 SSW GON ...CONT... 15 NNW DAB 10 SSW PIE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE TN AND PORTIONS OF THE OH VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST REGION... ...TN VALLEY AND GULF COAST STATES... SRN PLAINS UPPER TROUGH WILL FINALLY EJECT INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY EARLY IN THE DAY2 PERIOD. ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS/MID LEVEL COOLING...IT APPEARS A NARROW AXIS OF SOMEWHAT STEEPER LAPSE RATES WILL ADVECT ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. THIS SHOULD ENHANCE THERMAL PROFILES ACROSS AN OTHERWISE WEAK BACKGROUND ENVIRONMENT IN TERMS OF MOISTURE/INSTABILITY FROM WRN TN INTO CENTRAL KY. FARTHER SOUTH...POTENTIALLY MUCH WEAKER DEEP LAYER LAPSE RATES WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION WHERE HIGHER MOISTURE VALUES AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL COINCIDE. LATE DAY1 SQUALL LINE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY DAY2 PERIOD AS COLD FRONT ADVANCES EWD ACROSS THE MS VALLEY REGION. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD PROPAGATE EWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES INTO PROGRESSIVELY MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT. DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS SQUALL LINE...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED TORNADOES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. A SECONDARY MAXIMUM OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF MAIN SFC LOW WHERE STEEPER LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT STRONGER UPDRAFTS. ..DARROW.. 11/23/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 23 17:00:49 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 23 Nov 2004 12:00:49 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200411231702.iANH2YE21128@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 231659 SWODY2 SPC AC 231658 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1058 AM CST TUE NOV 23 2004 VALID 241200Z - 251200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW 7R4 25 ESE HEZ 45 SE GWO UOX 35 ESE JBR 15 SW CGI 45 SW BMG 30 SSE MIE 20 ESE MFD 20 NNE HLG 30 SE PKB 10 E 5I3 50 SSE TYS 15 SSW SPA 25 E GSO 10 NNE ORF ...CONT... 25 SE JAX 15 SW CTY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE DAB 15 SW FMY ...CONT... 25 S LCH 35 ESE MLU 40 NNW GLH 45 ENE LIT 50 N LIT 15 ENE HRO 40 E SGF 35 W MIE 45 SE DTW ...CONT... 55 N BML 25 SE AUG. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE OH/TN VALLEYS...CENTRAL GULF COAST...SRN APPALACHIANS...AND SRN ATLANTIC COAST... ...SYNOPSIS... ANOTHER ACTIVE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DAY IS LIKELY AS STRONG UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/GULF COAST REGIONS. LEADING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW CENTER WILL EJECT RAPIDLY NEWD ACROSS THE OH RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES DURING THE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY...WHILE ANOTHER STRONG SYSTEM DIGS AROUND BASE OF LONG WAVE TROUGH AND INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. THEREFORE...A BROAD REGION OF ENHANCED LOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL OVERSPREAD A LARGE PORTION OF THE ERN U.S. WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE. TWO PRIMARY AREAS OF SEVERE THREAT ARE LIKELY...ONE NEAR THE LOW CENTER AND INVOF STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SPREADING INTO THE OH AND TN RIVER VALLEYS...WITH ANOTHER NEARER THE DEEP MOISTURE AND ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION. ...OH INTO THE TN RIVER VALLEYS... WIDESPREAD CONVECTION MAY BE ONGOING WITHIN STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA REGIME OVER THE MID MS AND LOWER OH RIVER VALLEYS WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL RAPIDLY SPREAD NEWD WELL AHEAD OF PRIMARY SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG SURFACE COLD FRONT. MODELS SUGGEST SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL INCREASE INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH FORECAST WIND PROFILES INDICATING VERY STRONG LOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR. SHOULD HEATING/INSTABILITY DEVELOP WITH LEADING CONVECTION...SEVERE THREAT MAY INCREASE WITH IT AS IT SHIFTS NEWD INTO THE UPPER OH RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY. OTHERWISE... EXPECT SOME CLEARING TO OCCUR AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT IN WAKE OF EARLIER STORMS. ETA AND ETAKF SUGGEST TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S BY 21Z...WITH MLCAPES FROM 500-1000 J/KG. GIVEN DEGREE OF SHEAR AND PRESENCE OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...EXPECT LOW TOPPED SUPERCELLS AND SMALL LINES WILL DEVELOP INTO THE EARLY EVENING. CAPE AND SHEAR PARAMETERS SUGGEST ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WILL BE POSSIBLE. UNCERTAINTY REGARDING INSTABILITY APPEARS TOO GREAT TO UPGRADE TO MODERATE ATTM. ...CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION... ONGOING STRONG TO SEVERE SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM NRN/WRN AL INTO SERN LA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WITH EMBEDDED LEWPS AND POSSIBLE PRE-SQUALL LINE SUPERCELLS WITHIN WEAKLY CAPPED AND STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD STEADILY EWD ACROSS THE SRN APPALACHIANS INTO THE NERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE DAY. THOUGH LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN WEAK WITHIN DEEP MOIST PROFILES...SIGNIFICANT LOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR OVERSPREADING UPPER 60F/LOWER 70F SURFACE DEW POINTS SUGGEST TORNADO POTENTIAL /SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG/ WILL PERSIST ALONG AND SOUTH OF WARM FRONT. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND HIGHEST SEVERE PROBABILITIES WILL LIKELY REMAIN CONFINED TO AREAS NEARER THE COAST...HOWEVER ISOLATED TORNADOES/WIND DAMAGE MAY OCCUR NWD INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS. UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EXTENT/COVERAGE OF PRE-SQUALL CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY WARRANT MAINTAINING SLIGHT RISK FOR NOW...THOUGH UPGRADE MAY BE NEEDED IN LATER OUTLOOKS. ...SRN ATLANTIC COAST INTO THE DELMARVA... BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...VERY STRONG LOW AND DEEP LAYER WINDS WILL OVERSPREAD THIS REGION AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. GFS INDICATES 500 MB WINDS IN EXCESS OF 90 KT OVER ERN NC AND THE DELMARVA BY 25/12Z. GIVEN INFLUX OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE WITHIN INCREASING SSELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...AND RESULTANT DEVELOPMENT OF MARGINAL INSTABILITY...THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORM OF SMALL LINES AND SUPERCELLS MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE PERIOD ACROSS THIS REGION. WIND DAMAGE AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS SHOULD STORMS BE ABLE TO TAP MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. ..EVANS.. 11/23/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Nov 24 06:14:08 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 24 Nov 2004 01:14:08 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200411240615.iAO6FoE09414@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 240612 SWODY2 SPC AC 240611 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1211 AM CST WED NOV 24 2004 VALID 251200Z - 261200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNW PIE 40 NNW DAB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 E ILM 25 WSW WAL 30 WNW DOV 25 E HGR 10 WNW AOO BFD 55 NNE ROC. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...NEW ENGLAND... INTENSE 12HR 500MB HEIGHT FALLS...ON THE ORDER OF 180M...WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE NERN U.S. AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH DURING THE DAY2 PERIOD. RESULTANT LARGE SCALE ASCENT ALONG WITH DEEPENING SFC LOW SHOULD LIFT QUICKLY NEWD ACROSS UPSTATE NY INTO SERN QUEBEC...ALLOWING TRAILING COLD FRONT TO SWEEP ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NEW ENGLAND BY 06Z. IT APPEARS STRENGTH OF UPPER SYSTEM WILL ENHANCE DEEP CONVECTIVE THREAT AHEAD OF SFC BOUNDARY...BUT THIS ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP WITHIN MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT...AND LIKELY BE ELEVATED IN NATURE. FORECAST THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES DO NOT SUPPORT A SIGNIFICANT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND PROBABILITIES WILL REMAIN BELOW 5 PERCENT AT THIS TIME. ..DARROW.. 11/24/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Nov 24 17:06:01 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 24 Nov 2004 12:06:01 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200411241707.iAOH7fE19678@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 241704 SWODY2 SPC AC 241702 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1102 AM CST WED NOV 24 2004 VALID 251200Z - 261200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE ACY TTN 20 S POU 20 E BDL 10 ENE BOS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNW PIE 40 NNW DAB ...CONT... 10 E ILM 25 WSW WAL 30 WNW DOV 25 E HGR 10 WNW AOO BFD 55 NNE ROC. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SERN NEW ENGLAND... ...NORTHEAST... EXTENSIVE SQUALL LINE AHEAD OF STRONG LARGE SCALE TROUGH SHOULD BE ONGOING FROM CENTRAL FL NWD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. STRONG LARGE SCALE ASCENT ALONG WITH ENHANCED LOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL LIFT NNEWD ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH THE DAY...AS 90+ KT SWLY H5 JET SHIFTS ACROSS SERN NEW ENGLAND. IN RESPONSE TO THIS...SLY SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN QUITE STRONG AND ALLOW DEW POINTS TO INCREASE INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S AHEAD OF SQUALL LINE...BEFORE IT MOVES OFFSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON. PRIMARY NEGATIVES FOR SEVERE APPEAR TO BE MARGINAL CAPE AND STRONG WARMING JUST ABOVE SHALLOW BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH MAY KEEP UPDRAFTS ROOTED ABOVE THIS LEVEL. HOWEVER BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS WILL CONTINUING SUPPORTING LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO SHOULD STORMS PUSH THEIR DOWNDRAFTS THROUGH THIS SHALLOW STABLE LAYER. ...FL... FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS FL...SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS SWD INTO SRN FL THROUGH THE EARLY/MID AFTERNOON...GIVEN LIMITED CONVERGENCE AND DIMINISHING LARGE SCALE ASCENT. THUS...ANY RESIDUAL SEVERE THREAT EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THURSDAY MORNING. ..EVANS.. 11/24/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Nov 28 05:48:12 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 28 Nov 2004 00:48:12 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200411280550.iAS5oPE13418@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 280548 SWODY2 SPC AC 280547 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1147 PM CST SAT NOV 27 2004 VALID 291200Z - 301200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW P07 INK LBB CDS OKC TUL UNO PAH BNA GAD SEM 55 NNE MOB 30 SSE MOB ...CONT... 25 S CRP 30 S LRD. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH REGARD TO CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...INCLUDING SEVERE THREAT...DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. DISCREPANCIES ARISING IN MORE RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE ONLY ADDED TO THE UNCERTAINTY. A RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE STILL APPEARS LIKELY INTO WESTERN GULF COASTAL AREAS...AS SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE FOUR CORNERS STATES AND GRADUALLY EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED LOW LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. HOWEVER... STRENGTH/EVOLUTION OF UPSTREAM SYSTEM DIGGING TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST...AND ITS INFLUENCE ON FOUR CORNERS LOW...IS NOW MORE IN QUESTION. IT CURRENTLY APPEARS THAT LEAD SYSTEM MAY BEGIN ACCELERATING OUT THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES LATE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS SUGGEST THIS WILL OCCUR WITH TROUGH AXIS MAINTAINING POSITIVE TILT ORIENTATION...ON NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF FAIRLY STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO/ CARIBBEAN/SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND BAHAMAS. MODELS NOW APPEAR FASTER WITH SOUTHWARD SURGE OF COLD AIR THROUGH THE SOUTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO TEXAS...FURTHER COMPLICATING FORECAST...WITH ADDITIONAL UNCERTAINTY EXISTING WITH REGARD TO NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION OF REMNANTS OF SUBTROPICAL CLOSED NOW...NOW WEST OF BAJA. ...SOUTH CENTRAL STATES... THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING EARLY MONDAY ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/NORTHEAST TEXAS...WITH WEAK IMPULSE IN SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES PROVIDING PRIMARY FORCING. THIS CONVECTION APPEARS LIKELY TO DEVELOP RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD AND WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY...IN BAROCLINIC ZONE...ABOVE FRONTAL INVERSION...EXTENDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF STATES/TENNESSEE VALLEY. WARM SECTOR BOUNDARY LAYER WITH MID/UPPER 60S DEW POINTS WILL THEN SLOWLY BROADEN FROM PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA...POSSIBLY CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT. WHILE SHEAR PROFILES BENEATH STRONG WEST SOUTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER FLOW WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE CONVECTION...FORCING FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BENEATH BROADLY ANTICYCLONIC REGIME ON NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS UNCERTAIN. LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MID-LEVEL CAPPING MAY REMAIN INHIBITIVE OF DEEP CONVECTION UNTIL CLOSED LOW/TROUGH ACCELERATES OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS STATES. WITH THIS NOT LIKELY TO OCCUR UNTIL AFTER LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING MONDAY NIGHT...SEVERE PROBABILITIES APPEAR LOW. CONVECTION MAY INITIATE MONDAY NIGHT ABOVE FRONTAL INVERSION ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONT SURGING ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS...TOWARD TEXAS COASTAL AREAS. GIVEN FAVORABLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT LIKELY TO REMAIN ABOVE FRONTAL INVERSION IN ADVANCE OF UPPER TROUGH... MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY BECOME STEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A LIMITED HAIL THREAT IN STRONGER STORMS. OTHERWISE...INTENSIFYING SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET ALONG MID/UPPER TEXAS COASTAL AREAS INTO LOUISIANA MAY CONTRIBUTE TO PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS UPPER FORCING INCREASES LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. DESPITE LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING... BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY MOIST AND POTENTIALLY BUOYANT WITH INCREASING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES...TO SUPPORT AT LEAST LOW RISK FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ..KERR.. 11/28/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Nov 29 06:09:34 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 29 Nov 2004 01:09:34 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200411290611.iAT6BiE13346@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 290609 SWODY2 SPC AC 290608 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1208 AM CST MON NOV 29 2004 VALID 301200Z - 011200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW GLS HOU POE MLU UOX MSL BHM 35 WNW AUO DHN 35 SSE CEW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSE DRT ACT HRO TBN MTO DAY ZZV 10 NNW EKN 20 WNW RDU 10 NW AGS MGR 25 SSE TLH. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF STATES.... LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES BROAD CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO EVOLVE IN SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE WESTERLIES...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU/ROCKIES...MUCH AS FORECAST BY MODELS THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. WITH FAIRLY VIGOROUS UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE ALREADY DIGGING INTO THE BRITISH COLUMBIA/PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST...LEAD SYSTEM DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY TO REMAIN OVER THE FOUR CORNERS STATES LONG. STRENGTH AND RATE AT WHICH CLOSED/LOW TROUGH ACCELERATES EAST NORTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES HAS BEEN A CONSIDERABLE SOURCE OF UNCERTAINTY IN RECENT MODEL RUNS. UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE WILL BE SLOWED AND WEAKENED AS IT PROGRESSES INLAND THROUGH FAIRLY SHARP UPPER RIDGE...BUT LATEST ETA/GFS RUNS NOW ARE RATHER SIMILAR IN SUGGESTING DOWNSTREAM SYSTEM WILL LIFT INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...BEFORE UPSTREAM SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH...IN CONJUNCTION WITH A MORE PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE...FORCE EASTWARD ACCELERATION INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT. IN RESPONSE TO EVOLVING UPPER PATTERN...SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO FORM/DEEPEN ON NORTHERN END OF INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH...EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL GULF COASTAL AREAS INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...BEFORE MIGRATING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. DESPITE INLAND EVOLUTION OF SURFACE LOW...SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE WARM SECTOR DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY TO DEVELOP...PRIMARILY DUE TO CONTINUING INFLUENCE OF BROAD SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTING OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. ...GULF COAST STATES... AT LEAST A NARROW TONGUE OF SURFACE-BASED DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT...WHICH SHOULD BEGIN TO ADVANCE EAST OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WESTERN GULF COASTAL AREAS BY MID DAY TUESDAY. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN WEAK DUE TO POSITIVE TILT ORIENTATION OF UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH...BUT WEAK HEATING OF AIR MASS WITH 60F+ DEW POINTS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AT LEAST WEAK CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY. MODELS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN CONSISTENT IN SUGGESTING VERY STRONG /100+ KT AT 500 MB/ SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL JET STREAK WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH AXIS. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STRENGTHENING SHEAR AND FLOW FIELDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF STATES...INCLUDING WARM SECTOR...WHERE MEAN DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL SPEEDS MAY EXCEED 40 KT. THUS...DESPITE WEAK INSTABILITY...POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE ENHANCED BY STRONGER CONVECTION...WHICH WILL AID DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF HIGHER MOMENTUM TO THE SURFACE. NARROW PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE APPEARS POSSIBLE...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA/ SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND WESTERN ALABAMA. AS STRONGER FORCING DEVELOPS NORTHEAST OF GULF COASTAL AREAS LATER IN THE EVENING... CONVECTIVE LINE SHOULD WEAKEN. HOWEVER...MORE ISOLATED CELLS MAY EVENTUALLY DEVELOP IN CONFLUENT BAND NEAR LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS...SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO EASTERN GULF COASTAL AREAS OVERNIGHT. SHEAR PROFILES LIKELY WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH NEAR COASTAL AREAS...WHERE INLAND ADVECTION OF MOIST BUOYANT BOUNDARY LAYER WILL PERSIST...TO SUPPORT RISK FOR SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES OVERNIGHT. ..KERR.. 11/29/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Nov 29 17:31:23 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 29 Nov 2004 12:31:23 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200411291733.iATHXXE09113@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 291731 SWODY2 SPC AC 291730 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1130 AM CST MON NOV 29 2004 VALID 301200Z - 011200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NW LRD SAT 15 NW ACT 25 SE DUA 35 ESE FYV 30 N POF 30 SW BMG 40 NE FDY 35 SW ERI 25 ENE PSB 25 NNW BWI 40 ENE DAN 30 ENE AGS 10 WSW AQQ. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...GULF COAST... INTENSE UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT NEWD ACROSS THE MS VALLEY INTO THE OH VALLEY LATE IN THE PERIOD AS SPEED MAX WELL IN EXCESS OF 100KT EJECTS DOWNSTREAM. VERY STRONG HEIGHT FALLS WILL PRECEDE THIS FEATURE...ALTHOUGH ONLY PARTIALLY INFLUENCING THE NRN GULF COAST STATES WITH WEAKER ZONE OF ASCENT. IT APPEARS CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ALONG/BEHIND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM NRN MS...SWWD INTO SERN TX. THIS ACTIVITY MAY TEND TO BE POST-FRONTAL AND ELEVATED IN NATURE DUE TO THE INHIBITION AND WEAK LAPSE RATES ALONG THIS ZONE. DESPITE THE RETURN OF MODIFIED MARITIME AIRMASS INTO THIS REGION...MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL ULTIMATELY LIMIT THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT EVEN WITHIN THE STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. GUSTY WINDS MAY BE THE GREATEST THREAT WITH ANY STORMS THAT CAN ROOT JUST OFF THE SURFACE. ..DARROW.. 11/29/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 30 05:44:54 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 30 Nov 2004 00:44:54 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200411300547.iAU5kxE09608@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 300545 SWODY2 SPC AC 300544 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1144 PM CST MON NOV 29 2004 VALID 011200Z - 021200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE CHS FAY LYH MRB AVP 30 SSW POU 15 SE ISP. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH IS ALREADY BEGINNING TO LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES....AS UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLOWLY DIGS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST STATES. LATTER FEATURE IS WEAKENING... AND HAS BEEN SLOWED...AS IT PROGRESSES THROUGH BROADER SCALE RIDGE. HOWEVER...MORE PROGRESSIVE AND AMPLIFYING NORTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH/JET STREAK IS FORECAST BY MODELS TO DIG THROUGH SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF EASTERN CANADIAN POLAR LOW LATE TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...LEAD SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH WILL ACCELERATE MORE RAPIDLY OUT OF THE CENTRAL STATES THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY BE EARLY WEDNESDAY. RAPID MOTION OF SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC STATES/NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY EARLY THURSDAY. IN RESPONSE TO EVOLVING UPPER PATTERN...MODELS GENERALLY INDICATE DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL RAPIDLY MIGRATE OFF THE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST BY EARLY EVENING WEDNESDAY. TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR MUCH OF THE ATLANTIC COASTAL STATES DURING THE DAY...BUT WILL BECOME QUASISTATIONARY FROM THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...BENEATH STRONG WEST SOUTHWESTERLY MID/ UPPER FLOW REGIME. COOLING/DRYING OF LOWER-LEVELS IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT WILL HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO STABLY STRATIFIED ENVIRONMENT WHICH WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE NATION WEDNESDAY. THUS...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL APPEARS MINIMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. ...MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES... EVEN IN ADVANCE OF COLD FRONT...ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES...PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY APPEARS RELATIVELY LOW. LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES IN RETURN FLOW OF MODIFYING COOL/CONTINENTAL AIR MASS OFF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN ONLY VERY WEAK CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA/EXTREME EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. THIS WILL BE PRIMARILY DUE TO WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES/LARGE MID-LEVEL INHIBITION BENEATH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL JET STREAK PRIOR TO EARLY AFTERNOON FRONTAL PASSAGE. MID-LEVEL DESTABILIZATION ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER JET STREAK MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SCATTERED WEAK CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FROM PARTS OF NORTHERN VIRGINIA/EASTERN MARYLAND INTO NEW JERSEY EARLY IN THE DAY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE BASED ABOVE DEEP SURFACE-BASED INVERSION LAYER...BUT THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES MAY BE MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...PRIMARY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFFSHORE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE GULF STREAM...AS MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ..KERR.. 11/30/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 30 17:15:43 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 30 Nov 2004 12:15:43 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200411301717.iAUHHkE13521@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 301712 SWODY2 SPC AC 301711 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1111 AM CST TUE NOV 30 2004 VALID 011200Z - 021200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE OAJ 35 NNW RWI 30 SE CHO 30 WNW BWI 30 E CXY 20 WNW TTN 20 NE ACY. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...MIDDLE ATLANTIC... STRONG UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT ACROSS THE OH VALLEY INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND BY LATE AFTERNOON ALLOWING SFC COLD FRONT TO ADVANCE RAPIDLY OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD. FORECAST PROFILES DO NOT LOOK REAL FAVORABLE FOR DEEP CONVECTION GIVEN THE MARGINAL LAPSE RATES AND WEAK INSTABILITY. DESPITE A NARROW AXIS OF MOISTURE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS INTO VA...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE MAY NOT SUPPORT SFC-BASED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. EVEN SO...INTENSE MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AND FOCUSED ZONE OF ASCENT MAY ALLOW A FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THE FIRST 06HR OF THE PERIOD. ..DARROW.. 11/30/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Nov 1 08:31:28 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 01 Nov 2004 03:31:28 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200411010832.iA18WKV03498@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 010828 SWODY2 SPC AC 010827 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0227 AM CST MON NOV 01 2004 VALID 021200Z - 031200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WNW MFE 60 N VCT 30 SSW GGG ARG 10 SSE MVN 30 ENE IND 35 N MFD 15 NW FKL 10 SSE DUJ AOO 40 SSE EKN 30 SE TRI 30 N AHN 25 SSW MCN 15 ENE AQQ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE BLI 25 NNE SEA 50 N PDX 15 N ONP. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... THE DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH NOW OVER ERN AZ/WRN NM WILL DIG SEWD AND EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER NRN MEXICO TODAY BEFORE EJECTING NEWD OVER WRN/CENTRAL TX TO OK BY TUESDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE PAC NW. THE 00Z ETA/GFS HAVE SLOWED THE EWD PROGRESSION WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SINCE LAST NIGHT HAVE CONTINUED TO SUGGEST EVEN LESS PROGRESSION AND MORE PRONOUNCED WEAKENING OF THIS MID LEVEL TROUGH TOMORROW. THIS INTRODUCES SUBSTANTIAL UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND THE AMPLITUDE OF ANY ASSOCIATED SURFACE WAVE ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY. A BROAD BAND OF RAINFALL AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS IS STILL EXPECTED TO PERSIST AND MOVE SLOWLY EWD TODAY ACROSS TX/SE OK/AR...REACHING LA/MS TOMORROW. 40-50 KT MID LEVEL FLOW WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR AND BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S WOULD APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS...BUT POOR LAPSE RATES AND RELATIVELY WEAK LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL ACT AS LIMITING FACTORS. ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE TOMORROW ACROSS LA/MS WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE BAND...BUT THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS QUESTIONABLE ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY ONLY LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES THIS FAR IN ADVANCE. ..THOMPSON.. 11/01/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Nov 1 17:29:22 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 01 Nov 2004 12:29:22 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200411011730.iA1HUEV31248@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 011727 SWODY2 SPC AC 011726 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1126 AM CST MON NOV 01 2004 VALID 021200Z - 031200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE BLI 25 NNE SEA 50 N PDX 15 N ONP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSE CRP 10 N NIR 10 NNE TPL 30 SE DAL 15 NNE PRX FSM UMN TBN 65 SW BLV 10 SE FDY 35 SW ERI 10 SE FKL LBE MGW LOZ HSV 10 S SEM 30 SSE MOB. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... MODELS SUGGEST STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL PERSIST ALONG/JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. AS A RESULT... NORTHERN PORTION OF UPSTREAM CENTRAL STATES TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN SOUTHERN PORTION...AS NEXT SYSTEM ADVANCES INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES/NORTHWEST STATES. THIS IS CURRENTLY SUPPORTED BY LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...IN WHICH EVOLVING CLOSED LOW IS EVIDENT OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. ...WRN GULF OF MEXICO INTO MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI/LWR OHIO VALLEYS... DISCREPANCIES STILL EXIST AMONG MODELS/MODEL RUNS WITH REGARD TO SPEED AT WHICH CLOSED LOW BEGINS TO MIGRATE OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. LATEST RUNS INDICATE UPPER/LOW TROUGH MAY STILL BE AS FAR WEST AS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE SYSTEM BEGINS TO ACCELERATE MORE RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD TUESDAY NIGHT...WELL TO THE WEST OF SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE. DESPITE RELATIVELY HIGH MOISTURE LEVELS /WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S-LOWER 70S/ AHEAD OF FRONT...MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES DO NOT APPEAR LIKELY TO STEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY DUE TO POSITIVE TILT ORIENTATION OF UPPER SYSTEM. THIS WILL LIMIT OVERALL MAGNITUDE OF DESTABILIZATION...AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO MINIMIZE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF STATES. PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE BAND MAY BE ONGOING FROM THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL THROUGH EXTREME EASTERN ARKANSAS INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS EARLY TUESDAY...WHEN LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ARE PROGGED TO BE STRONGEST. SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET ON THE ORDER OF 40 KTS OR SO WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT SHEAR TO SUPPORT LOW RISK OF SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...WITH SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION IN ENVIRONMENT WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE UP TO 500 J/KG. THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY...AS EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER INHIBITS SURFACE HEATING...AND LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS AT LEAST TEMPORARILY WEAKEN. SOME STRENGTHENING OF FLOW/SHEAR PROFILES IS AGAIN PROGGED BY MODELS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT...AS UPPER SYSTEM BEGINS TO ACCELERATE MORE RAPIDLY OUT OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. HOWEVER...THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...WHICH WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/TORNADOES. ..KERR.. 11/01/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 2 08:36:38 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 02 Nov 2004 03:36:38 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200411020837.iA28bRV25116@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 020835 SWODY2 SPC AC 020834 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0234 AM CST TUE NOV 02 2004 VALID 031200Z - 041200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE LCH 20 NW MLU 40 SSW PBF 50 N HOT 40 SW JEF 35 ENE MMO 10 NNE TOL 15 NNW CAK 20 SSW HLG BLF 20 NNW GSO 30 W GSB 25 W ILM 35 SW CRE 40 WNW CHS 25 SW AHN 25 ENE LGC 30 W PFN. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... THE MID LEVEL TROUGH NOW OVER W TX WILL EJECT NEWD TOMORROW TOWARD THE LOWER OH VALLEY IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER TROUGH DIGGING SEWD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. AT THE SURFACE...A LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP NNEWD IN ADVANCE OF THIS TROUGH...FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO THE OH VALLEY. THOUGH THE STRONGER JET CORE WILL LIKELY REMAIN W OF THE WARM SECTOR...DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS IN A BAND NEAR THE SURFACE FRONT ACROSS THE SE LA/MS/AL/WRN TN AREA. A POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTOR...HOWEVER...WILL BE POOR LAPSE RATES AND RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY IN THE WARM SECTOR. ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH STORMS IN A BAND NEAR THE FRONT...BUT THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS TOO MARGINAL TO JUSTIFY A CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK AREA AT THIS TIME. ..THOMPSON.. 11/02/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 2 17:24:54 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 02 Nov 2004 12:24:54 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200411021725.iA2HPgV10794@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 021723 SWODY2 SPC AC 021721 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1121 AM CST TUE NOV 02 2004 VALID 031200Z - 041200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE LCH 10 SE MLU 35 NE ELD HOT UNO UIN RFD 10 WNW AZO 10 NW FKL LBE 20 WNW SHD 10 SW ROA GSO RDU 10 NE FAY FLO CAE AHN ATL 35 WNW PFN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSW UKI 25 E SJC 10 WSW FAT 25 ENE BFL OXR. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... AMPLIFICATION OF SOUTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST ALREADY APPEARS TO HAVE BEGUN IN LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. MODELS SUGGEST THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTHWARD ALONG THE OREGON/NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY ...BEFORE CLOSED LOW EVENTUALLY FORMS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF SAN FRANCISCO BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IN RESPONSE TO EVOLVING UPSTREAM PATTERN...CLOSED LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MORE RAPID ACCELERATION INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY MAY OCCUR LATE IN THE PERIOD...AS MORE PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGS FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ...CNTRL GULF COAST INTO OHIO VALLEY/APPALACHIANS... BROAD SWATH OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT DOWNSTREAM OF UPPER TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AND EMBEDDED CONVECTION. BEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY APPEARS TO EXIST IN NARROW PRE-FRONTAL LOW-LEVEL MOIST TONGUE FROM SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA THROUGH EASTERN MISSISSIPPI/WESTERN ALABAMA. THIS WILL BE IN WARM SECTOR OF DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW...WHERE SURFACE DEW POINTS AS HIGH AS THE LOWER 70S WILL CONTRIBUTE TO POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. DUE TO LIKELIHOOD OF CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER...DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE WEAK...BUT COULD STILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR NARROW CORRIDOR OF CAPE IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG BY LATE AFTERNOON. WHILE THIS MAY BE SUPPORTIVE OF VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS AND HEAVY RAIN...MODELS SUGGEST CORE OF MID/UPPER JET STREAK AND COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH WILL LAG TO THE WEST OF WARM SECTOR. THIS WILL LIMIT MAGNITUDE OF CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR...WHICH WILL IN TURN MINIMIZE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT. EXIT REGION OF SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL JET SHOULD FOCUS STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION NORTH OF WARM FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY BY LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS APPEARS LIKELY TO CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION ABOVE LOW-LEVEL INVERSION LAYERS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. ...CALIFORNIA... AT LEAST WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED WITH EVOLVING COLD UPPER LOW ALONG THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES LIKELY WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR HAIL IN STRONGEST CELLS...BUT MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. ..KERR.. 11/02/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Nov 3 08:31:30 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 03 Nov 2004 03:31:30 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200411030832.iA38WFV09562@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 030830 SWODY2 SPC AC 030829 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0229 AM CST WED NOV 03 2004 VALID 041200Z - 051200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SE JAX 40 S CTY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE SFO 50 NNE SAC 35 WSW LOL 20 WNW U31 30 ENE TPH 25 NNE EDW 15 SW LAX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW PNS 25 SSW ANB CSV 15 S LEX 45 WSW LUK 20 ESE IND 50 W FWA 45 N FWA 25 SSW ERI 30 S IPT 20 S ACY. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... THE REMNANTS OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH NOW OVER TX/OK WILL EJECT ENEWD AND LOSE AMPLITUDE TOMORROW IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG NRN STREAM WAVE THAT IS FORECAST TO DIG SEWD OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE SURFACE...A LOW WILL LIKELY MOVE NEWD TO THE W OF THE APPALACHIANS TOMORROW...WITH SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS EXPECTED NEAR THE SE NEW ENGLAND COAST TOMORROW NIGHT AS THE EJECTING SRN STREAM WAVE PHASES WITH THE DIGGING GREAT LAKES TROUGH. THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE THE SURFACE LOW AND TRAILING COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...A SEPARATE CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW WILL FORM INVOF NRN/CENTRAL CA LATER TODAY...AND THEN DRIFT SWWD OVER CA TOMORROW WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF VERY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MID LEVEL COLD POOL. THOUGH INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN QUITE WEAK W OF THE APPALACHIANS...THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY FOR GREATER DESTABILIZATION E OF THE MOUNTAINS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS DURING THE AFTERNOON. IF SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP...WIND PROFILES SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND/OR BOW ECHOES. GIVEN THE SUBSTANTIAL UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...WILL ONLY OUTLOOK LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME. ..THOMPSON.. 11/03/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Nov 3 17:31:57 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 03 Nov 2004 12:31:57 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200411031732.iA3HWgV21221@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 031730 SWODY2 SPC AC 031729 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1129 AM CST WED NOV 03 2004 VALID 041200Z - 051200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW CRE 20 E FLO 30 S RIC 25 W SBY 35 NE SBY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE SFO 50 NNE SAC 35 WSW LOL 20 WNW U31 30 ENE TPH 25 NNE EDW 15 SW LAX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE MOB MGM GAD 50 WSW CSV LEX DAY 10 WSW TOL MTC OSC PLN 60 WNW ANJ ...CONT... 30 WNW ROC 40 E BFD CXY ABE PSF EEN 15 SSE PSM ...CONT... 10 ESE DAB 60 N PIE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS.... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES SOUTHERN PLAINS CLOSED LOW HAS FINALLY BEGUN TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD...AS UPSTREAM SOUTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST. WHILE LATTER FEATURE IS PROGGED TO EVOLVE INTO A CUT-OFF LOW...MODELS SUGGEST DOWNSTREAM CIRCULATION WILL EVOLVE INTO SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND CONTINUE INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY BY EARLY THURSDAY...BEFORE ACCELERATING EASTWARD TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL OCCUR IN RESPONSE TO INFLUENCE OF MORE PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH...WHICH IS FORECAST TO DIG INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...PHASING OF NORTHERN/SOUTHERN BRANCH SYSTEMS INTO LARGER NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES IS PROGGED...WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS NEAR THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. ...MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS... MODELS SUGGEST SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING EAST OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS LATE TODAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN DURING THE DAY THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO EVOLVING UPPER FLOW PATTERN. WITH APPROACH OF SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH...DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED ALONG FRONTAL ZONE...FROM THE LEE OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO THE DELMARVA PENINSULA AREA BY EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S...TO RAPIDLY RETURN NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA INTO CHESAPEAKE REGION...CONTRIBUTING TO INCREASING POTENTIAL INSTABILITY. WARM MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE WILL LIKELY CAP WARM SECTOR OF SURFACE LOW UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY...WHEN IT APPEARS MID-LEVEL COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE EXPECTED TO APPROACH OR EXCEED 1000 J/KG...FORCING SHOULD FAVOR EVOLUTION OF AT LEAST NARROW PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC COASTAL PLAINS. EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH MEAN FLOW AROUND 50 KT...DAMAGING WINDS WILL LIKELY BE PRIMARY THREAT WITH CONVECTION...BEFORE ACTIVITY INCREASES IN COVERAGE AND SPREADS OFFSHORE THURSDAY EVENING. ..KERR.. 11/03/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Nov 4 08:34:16 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 04 Nov 2004 03:34:16 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200411040834.iA48Ywg10623@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 040831 SWODY2 SPC AC 040830 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0230 AM CST THU NOV 04 2004 VALID 051200Z - 061200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NNE MRY 50 NNW PRB 40 W BFL 25 WNW PMD 25 SSE PMD 40 S RAL. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... RATHER BENIGN CONVECTIVE PATTERN EXPECTED ACROSS THE CONUS TOMORROW AS A DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EWD OVER NEW ENGLAND AND A STRONG NRN STREAM JET PERSISTS ACROSS SRN CANADA AND THE NRN TIER OF STATES. IN THE WAKE OF THE NEW ENGLAND TROUGH...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS FL...THOUGH WEAK INSTABILITY IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL LIMIT THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS. FARTHER W...A CLOSED/CUTOFF MID LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL CA IS FORECAST TO DRIFT SLIGHTLY ESEWD OVER THE CENTRAL/SRN CA COAST. STEEP LAPSE RATES BENEATH THE MID LEVEL COLD POOL MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE CA COAST. ..THOMPSON.. 11/04/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Nov 4 17:23:53 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 04 Nov 2004 12:23:53 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200411041724.iA4HOXg22597@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 041721 SWODY2 SPC AC 041719 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1119 AM CST THU NOV 04 2004 VALID 051200Z - 061200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NNE MRY 50 NNW PRB 40 W BFL 25 WNW PMD 25 SSE PMD 40 S RAL. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...EAST OF ROCKIES... MODELS SUGGEST LARGE-SCALE TROUGH...EVOLVING FROM MERGING NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVES OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT...WILL PROGRESS OFF THE NORTH ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY. BY FRIDAY MORNING...ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO HAVE CLEARED ALL BUT THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...WHERE RELATIVELY WARM MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKENING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LIKELY WILL INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. SOME AMPLIFICATION OF A SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH IS FORECAST TO OCCUR OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...DESPITE A GRADUAL MID-LEVEL COOLING/EVENTUAL WEAKENING OF INHIBITION...FRONTAL ZONE IS EXPECTED TO HAVE ADVANCED SOUTH/EAST OF THE MIAMI/PALM BEACH AREA AND FLORIDA KEYS...MINIMIZING RISK OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER INLAND AREAS. ...WEST OF ROCKIES... SATELLITE IMAGERY SUPPORTS LATEST MODEL FORECASTS INDICATING UPPER CLOSED LOW SHOULD REMAIN CUT-OFF ALONG THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. CORE OF COLDER AIR ALOFT...ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE ROTATING AROUND CIRCULATION CENTER...MAY BEGIN SPREADING INTO COASTAL AREAS NORTH/NORTHWEST OF THE LOS ANGELES BASIN AS EARLY AS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS COULD CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...WHICH MAY CONTINUE INTO EARLY FRIDAY EVENING. ..KERR.. 11/04/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Nov 5 05:31:05 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 05 Nov 2004 00:31:05 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200411050531.iA55Vgg30860@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 050529 SWODY2 SPC AC 050528 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1128 PM CST THU NOV 04 2004 VALID 061200Z - 071200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM VBG PMD TRM 25 WSW YUM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NNW EYW PBI. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THROUGH PERIOD WILL FEATURE BROAD TROUGH OVER ERN CANADA AND NERN CONUS...MEAN RIDGE FROM N-CENTRAL MEX ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN ROCKIES...AND PRONOUNCED CYCLONE OVER CA. LATTER FEATURE IS PRESENTLY CENTERED JUST OFFSHORE MRY BAY...AND SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE INLAND SOMETIME MID-LATE PERIOD. AS THIS OCCURS...LOW LEVEL THETAE ADVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS COASTAL SRN CA -- AND PERHAPS CA/MEX BORDER -- MAY LEAD TO ENOUGH DESTABILIZATION TO SUPPORT OCCASIONAL THUNDER. MEANWHILE...LOW-AMPLITUDE PERTURBATION ALOFT -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER NEB/NERN KS...SHOULD MOVE SEWD AND AMPLIFY SOMEWHAT AS IT APCHS FL. FRONTAL ZONE NOW SWEEPING EWD ACROSS ATLANTIC OFFSHORE WATERS AND SEWD OVER NRN FL SHOULD STALL...RESULTING IN BROAD/DIFFUSE FRONTAL ZONE OVER FL STRAITS AND EXTREME S FL. LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASING LATE IN PERIOD...COMBINED WITH PROXIMITY TO LOW LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE...MAY RESULT IN ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR THUNDER OVER PORTIONS SRN FL AND ADJACENT WATERS. ..EDWARDS.. 11/05/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Nov 5 17:27:29 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 05 Nov 2004 12:27:29 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200411051728.iA5HS5g08682@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 051723 SWODY2 SPC AC 051723 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1123 AM CST FRI NOV 05 2004 VALID 061200Z - 071200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S VBG 45 NNE NID 60 E LAS 25 NW PRC 70 SW GBN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM EYW PBI. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...WEST OF ROCKIES... MODELS ARE SIMILAR WITH REGARD TO FORECAST AMPLIFICATION OF UPPER RIDGE ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA SATURDAY...DOWNSTREAM OF PROGRESSIVE NORTHEAST PACIFIC SHORT WAVE TROUGH. AS THIS OCCURS...CLOSED LOW WILL REMAIN CUT-OFF NEAR THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. MODELS DO SUGGEST A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE WILL ROTATE AROUND SOUTHERN/EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS CIRCULATION...CONTRIBUTING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG CYCLONIC MID/UPPER JET STREAK ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA/SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE LOWER COLORADO VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT. ASSOCIATED EVOLUTION OF 30 TO 40 KT SOUTHERLY LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC JET INTO THE LOWER COLORADO VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MOISTENING ENVIRONMENT BENEATH EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET STREAK. MODELS SUGGEST THIS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION FOR WEAK CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE NEEDLES AREA... WESTWARD THROUGH THE MOJAVE DESERT. OTHER THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE NEAR COLD CORE OF UPPER LOW... BUT THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN OFF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTAL AREAS. ...EAST OF ROCKIES... IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN SUBTROPICAL JET IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO LATE TODAY...AND WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE AMPLIFICATION OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO LATER TONIGHT. MODELS SUGGEST THIS FEATURE WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA/CARIBBEAN/AND BAHAMAS REGION SATURDAY...LIKELY SUPPORTING SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR MOST LIKELY SOUTH/EAST OF STALLED FRONTAL ZONE...TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. HOWEVER...WEAK CAPPING AND MOIST EASTERLY FLOW MAY CONTRIBUTE TO AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IN THE VICINITY OF COASTAL AREAS AROUND MIAMI. ..KERR.. 11/05/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Nov 6 05:50:00 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 06 Nov 2004 00:50:00 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200411060550.iA65oYg25096@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 060548 SWODY2 SPC AC 060547 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1147 PM CST FRI NOV 05 2004 VALID 071200Z - 081200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSW SBA SBA BIH U31 EKO 45 NE ENV SLC PUC U17 INW 55 E PHX PHX IGM 40 NNW EED TRM CZZ. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE -- NOW EVIDENT ON MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER CENTRAL/SRN CA OFFSHORE WATERS -- IS FCST TO TURN EWD AND MOVE INLAND DURING PERIOD. LATEST 21Z SREF COMPOSITES...21Z ETA-KF AND 00Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ONE ANOTHER ON THIS PROCESS. HOWEVER...PROG TRENDS GOING BACK A COUPLE OF DAYS HAVE BEEN SLOWING TIMING OF INLAND MOTION OF THIS SYSTEM WITH EACH SUCCEEDING SET OF RUNS. THEREFORE...ANTICIPATE THAT MOST OF CONUS E OF ROCKIES WILL REMAIN E OF DOWNSTREAM MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...IN NW TO WLY FLOW ALOFT...AND WITH LITTLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN OF SIGNIFICANCE. ...SRN GREAT BASIN TO COASTAL SRN CA... ONLY GEN THUNDER POTENTIAL OF CONSEQUENCE SHOULD BE NEAR COLD CORE OF UPPER LOW...AND IN FOREGOING LOW LEVEL WAA/MOIST ADVECTION CONVEYOR. FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STEEPENING LAPSE RATES CONTRIBUTING TO MUCAPES 100-500 J/KG RANGE INVOF SRN CA COAST DURING DAY...AND INCREASING AFTER 00Z TO SIMILAR VALUES ACROSS SRN/SWRN GREAT BASIN AREA. LOW-MIDLEVEL SHEAR PROFILES AND COOLING ALOFT MAY SUPPORT SMALL HAIL PRODUCTION IN A FEW CELLS...BUT SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS TOO WEAK/ISOLATED TO WARRANT EITHER PROBABILISTIC OR CATEGORICAL OUTLOOKS ATTM. ..EDWARDS.. 11/06/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Nov 6 16:31:56 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 06 Nov 2004 11:31:56 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200411061632.iA6GWSg08282@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 061626 SWODY2 SPC AC 061625 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1025 AM CST SAT NOV 06 2004 VALID 071200Z - 081200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE VBG 25 WNW BIH 25 SSE NFL 45 E LOL 25 E BAM 55 SW ENV 55 NNW MLF 20 SSE BCE 55 SSE PGA 45 SSW INW 25 NNE PHX 65 NNW GBN 35 S EED 20 E TRM CZZ. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SWRN U.S... UPPER LOW POSITIONED OFF THE SRN CA COAST...NEAR 33N/123W...IS EXPECTED TO EJECT NEWD ACROSS SRN CA LATE IN THE DAY2 PERIOD. THIS MOVEMENT WILL ALLOW CONVEYOR OF ASCENT/MID LEVEL MOISTENING TO SHIFT INLAND AS UPPER SPEED MAX DEVELOPS DOWNSTREAM OVER AZ. IT APPEARS ISOLATED-SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE COMMON WITH THIS CONVEYOR AS IT SPREADS INLAND...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE FORECAST STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. IN ADDITION...HEATING OVER THE DESERT REGIONS SHOULD AID INSTABILITY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...POSSIBLY ENHANCING THE CONCENTRATION OF DEEP CONVECTION THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ..DARROW.. 11/06/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Nov 7 05:50:32 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 07 Nov 2004 00:50:32 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200411070551.iA75p2g24461@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 070548 SWODY2 SPC AC 070547 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1147 PM CST SAT NOV 06 2004 VALID 081200Z - 091200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DUG FHU TUS PHX 70 NNW GBN BLH 40 NNE TRM DAG 70 SE BIH TPH ENV OGD EVW 40 S RKS 40 W EGE GUC SAF ONM TCS DMN DUG. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... PRONOUNCED MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE -- NOW EVIDENT ON MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OFFSHORE CENTRAL/SRN CA -- IS EXPECTED TO TURN NEWD AND MOVE INLAND LATE DAY-1 OR EARLY DAY-2 PERIOD...THEN MOVE ACROSS GREAT BASIN THROUGH DAY-2. BROAD PLUME OF LOW LEVEL WAA AND MOIST ADVECTION SHOULD PRECEDE THIS SYSTEM ACROSS REGION...HELPING TO DESTABILIZE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TSTMS IN WARM CONVEYOR. LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND COOLING WILL SPREAD OVER WRN PORTION OUTLOOK AREA IN PROXIMITY TO MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW...AND IN CONJUNCTION WITH PEAK SFC DIABATIC HEATING DURING AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD FURTHER STEEPEN DEEP-LAYER LAPSE RATES AND SUPPORT TSTMS DURING AFTERNOON/EVENING. A FEW TSTMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL...BUT SEVERE PROBABILITIES APPEAR TOO MARGINAL/ISOLATED FOR ANY SORT OF OUTLOOK BEYOND GEN TSTMS ATTM. FARTHER E...EXPECT CONTINUED PRESENCE OF STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER RIDGING AND CONTINENTAL/ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF SRN PLAINS...REINFORCED BY DAY-1 FROPA. THIS SHOULD PREVENT SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE RETURN E OF ROCKIES THROUGH PERIOD...AND PRECLUDE SEVERE TSTMS. ..EDWARDS.. 11/07/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Nov 7 17:37:35 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 07 Nov 2004 12:37:35 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200411071738.iA7Hc4g31638@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 071735 SWODY2 SPC AC 071734 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1134 AM CST SUN NOV 07 2004 VALID 081200Z - 091200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW FHU 30 SW FHU 45 NNW TUS 10 NNE PHX 75 ENE BLH 25 N BLH 45 E DAG 55 NE NID 40 S TPH 65 ESE U31 ENV OGD EVW 35 SW RKS 20 SW CAG 20 ESE ASE 10 SSE ALS 25 W LVS 40 SW 4CR 40 SE DMN. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...GREAT BASIN/4-CORNERS... UPPER LOW JUST OFF THE SRN CA COAST WILL EJECT INLAND ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN TOWARD THE CENTRAL ROCKIES LATE IN THE PERIOD. WARM CONVEYOR BELT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE HAS ALREADY INDUCED WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND PRECIPITATION FROM LOWER LATITUDES ACROSS NWRN MEXICO...NWD INTO AZ AND SWRN UT. ALTHOUGH LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM CONVEYOR ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK...STEEPER POST FRONTAL LAPSE RATES BENEATH THE UPPER LOW SHOULD ALLOW SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ..DARROW.. 11/07/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Nov 8 05:53:16 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 08 Nov 2004 00:53:16 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200411080553.iA85rgg03284@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 080551 SWODY2 SPC AC 080550 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1150 PM CST SUN NOV 07 2004 VALID 091200Z - 101200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM OFK LNK BIE HUT P28 GAG AMA TCC LVS 4BL U24 DPG 55 WNW OGD MLD RKS FCL 30 SE SNY 45 NNE BUB OFK. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL FEATURE PRONOUNCED MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE -- NOW EVIDENT ON MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER CHANNEL ISLANDS OF SRN CA. STRONG AGREEMENT EXISTS AMONG LATEST SETS OF BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS REGARDING TIMING/TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM...AS IT MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL ROCKIES AND CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS. SOMETIME LATE DAY-2 OR EARLY DAY-3...PROG DIFFERENCES BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED...WITH MANY SOLUTIONS YIELDING OPEN WAVE...UNDER INFLUENCE OF HEIGHT FALLS PRECEDING CANADIAN NRN STREAM TROUGH. SPECTRAL MAINTAINS MORE DETACHMENT BETWEEN SRN/NRN STREAMS AND CLOSED CYCLONE MOVING ACROSS CO/NRN NM. IN EITHER EVENT...SFC LEE-SIDE CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...RESULTING IN STRONG REGIONAL CONVERGENCE MAX AND BROAD AREA OF LOW LEVEL WAA. MEANWHILE...PRIND STRONGEST ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH PACIFIC UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN TOO FAR OFFSHORE NRN CA COAST DURING THIS PERIOD FOR GEN TSTM RISK THERE. ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ARC OF STRONG DEEP-LAYER ASCENT -- AHEAD OF UPPER LOW AND INVOF LEE TROUGH -- SHOULD SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING...SHIFTING EWD FROM CO/NERN NM ACROSS PORTIONS WRN KS...PERHAPS SWRN NEB AND TX/OK PANHANDLES. INTENSE DYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC FIELDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT EWD FROM SRN/CENTRAL ROCKIES AHEAD OF CURRENT PACIFIC COAST CYCLONE. HOWEVER...SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE GREATLY RESTRICTED BY INADEQUATE MOISTURE RETURN. LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES WILL ORIGINATE LARGELY FROM LARGE CONTINENTAL ANTICYCLONE NOW SETTLING SEWD ACROSS UPPER MIDWEST AND CENTRAL PLAINS. RESIDUAL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND STEEPENING MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY SUPPORT MUCAPES GENERALLY BELOW 500 J/KG. SOME STRONG-SEVERE GUSTS AND HAIL MAY OCCUR BUT LOW LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC WEAKNESSES PRECLUDE CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK ATTM. ..EDWARDS.. 11/08/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Nov 8 17:36:29 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 08 Nov 2004 12:36:29 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200411081736.iA8Hasg32350@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 081734 SWODY2 SPC AC 081733 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1133 AM CST MON NOV 08 2004 VALID 091200Z - 101200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 9V9 RSL GAG 30 WSW PVW 4CR GNT 4BL U28 15 SE SLC EVW 10 E RKS 15 WNW RWL 10 N DGW RAP 9V9. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... SPLIT IN LARGE-SCALE UPPER FLOW REGIME PERSISTS ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC...WITH SHORT WAVES REMAINING PROGRESSIVE IN NORTHERN BRANCH OF WESTERLIES...ACROSS CANADA INTO THE NORTHEASTERN STATES. MODELS SUGGEST PERTURBATIONS IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH WILL BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE BY TUESDAY...DOWNSTREAM OF STRONG ZONAL UPPER JET OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC. AS SHORT WAVE TROUGH...NOW OVER THE EAST CENTRAL PACIFIC... CONTINUES EASTWARD TOWARD THE PACIFIC COAST...DOWNSTREAM CLOSED LOW IS PROGGED TO GRADUALLY ACCELERATE EASTWARD OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES. AS THIS OCCURS...AND LARGE-SCALE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE ATLANTIC COAST STATES...MID/UPPER RIDGING OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL STATES IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN...WHILE SPRAWLING SURFACE HIGH BEGINS TO REDEVELOP EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. ...GREAT BASIN INTO PLAINS... LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING HAS RE-INFORCED DRYING EAST OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE ATLANTIC COAST STATES...AND FURTHER DRYING APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF COAST AND GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH TUESDAY. THUS...AS CLOSED LOW PROGRESSES OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE QUITE LIMITED. HOWEVER...RELATIVELY COLD POOL OF AIR /500 MB TEMPS AOB -20C/ EXISTS AT MID-LEVELS WITH UPPER LOW. AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND MID-LEVEL COOLING SPREAD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES TUESDAY...DESTABILIZATION SHOULD BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS...AS CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT BECOMES CHARACTERIZED BY PROFILES EXHIBITING LARGE LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURE-DEW POINT SPREADS BENEATH RELATIVELY MOIST MID/UPPER-LEVELS. ABOVE DEEPENING INVERSION ASSOCIATED WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING TUESDAY EVENING...ENVIRONMENT ALONG/WEST OF SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WARM. AS STRONGER MID-LEVEL COOLING BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST OF THE ROCKIES...STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF THUNDERSTORMS. BEST POTENTIAL FOR THIS APPEARS TO BE FROM PARTS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS...WHERE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNING NORTHWARD FROM THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY MAY CONTRIBUTE TO CAPE UP TO 500 J/KG. GIVEN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLY COOL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES...AND FORCING ENHANCED BY APPROACH OF CYCLONIC MID/UPPER JET STREAK...THIS MAY BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH HAIL APPROACHING/POSSIBLY BRIEFLY EXCEEDING SEVERE LIMITS. ..KERR.. 11/08/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 9 06:09:04 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 09 Nov 2004 01:09:04 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200411090609.iA969Rg04950@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 090607 SWODY2 SPC AC 090606 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1206 AM CST TUE NOV 09 2004 VALID 101200Z - 111200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MTJ CDC BIH 65 SSW SVE MHS MFR RDM BKE IDA BPI CAG MTJ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSW HUM ESF 45 NNW POE LFK 65 NW AUS ABI LTS CSM GAG 45 SSW LBL LAA 45 ESE AKO IML BBW 60 NE OMA CID MLI HUF 40 SW SDF BWG BNA TCL 50 SSW PNS. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... MAIN FEATURE FOR THIS FCST IS MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW -- NOW EVIDENT ON MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER NWRN AZ/SWRN UT. MOST MODELS FCST THIS FEATURE TO MOVE GENERALLY EWD CENTRAL/SRN ROCKIES AND ADJACENT PLAINS THROUGH DAY-2...THOUGH STRONGEST HEIGHT FALLS N-NE OF CIRCULATION CENTER ON 09/00Z 500 MB ANALYSES INDICATE SOMEWHAT MORE NRN TRACK MAY OCCUR ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS. AT SFC...STRONG FRONTOGENESIS FCST DAY-1 OVER NRN PLAINS -- IN ASSOCIATION WITH AMPLIFYING NRN STREAM TROUGH. BY 11/00Z...EXPECT FRONT TO EXTEND FROM INVOF ERN UPPER MI SWWD ACROSS IA THEN SSWWD OVER OK AND W TX. FRONTAL WAVE LOW SHOULD MOVE ACROSS SRN KS OR OK AND MAXIMIZE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN ITS VICINITY. EXPECT SFC LOW TO MOVE EWD OVER OZARKS REGION BY END OF PERIOD WHILE FRONT SWEEPS SEWD ACROSS MOST OF TX/OK. ...SERN PLAINS/OZARKS/ARKLATEX... BOUNDARY LAYER TRAJECTORIES WILL EMANATE LARGELY FROM CONTINENTAL ANTICYCLONE/RIDGE NOW OVER GREAT LAKES AND MS VALLEY. DEPTH OF MOIST LAYER IS CONCERN GIVEN LOW LEVEL DRYNESS OBSERVED IN 09/00Z CRP/BRO RAOBS...AND INDICATED BY ROUGHLY 60 DEG F SFC DEW POINTS AND NLY FLOW NOW OVER WRN GULF. MARINE MODIFICATION MAY ALLOW POCKETS OF 50S/LOW 60S F SKIN LAYER DEW POINTS TO REACH NWD INTO PORTIONS ERN OK AND AR BEFORE FROPA. WITHOUT THESE RETURN FLOW MOISTURE PROBLEMS...VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WOULD BE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND/OR ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE WIND EVENT...BASED ON ETA/SPECTRAL FCST SOUNDINGS ACROSS ERN OK...AR AND NE TX. ATTM WILL MAINTAIN BROAD AREA OF MARGINAL SEVERE PROBABILITIES BECAUSE OF THERMODYNAMIC QUESTIONS AND TRACK UNCERTAINTIES OF MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW. HOWEVER...SOME SUBSET OF THIS AREA COULD BE UPGRADED IN FUTURE OUTLOOKS GIVEN STRENGTH OF DYNAMIC FORCING...KINEMATIC FIELDS AND PRESENCE OF ENOUGH HEATING FOR SFC-BASED CONVECTION DURING AFTERNOON/EVENING. ..EDWARDS.. 11/09/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 9 17:32:42 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 09 Nov 2004 12:32:42 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200411091733.iA9HX4g04505@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 091726 SWODY2 SPC AC 091725 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1125 AM CST TUE NOV 09 2004 VALID 101200Z - 111200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S BPT 10 NW LFK 35 NE DAL 30 ENE FSI GAG 25 ESE EHA 35 NW EHA 10 NNE LAA 25 WSW GLD 40 ESE MCK 20 E FNB 30 SSE IRK 25 NW ALN 15 SSW MVN 50 SW HOP 25 ENE TUP 45 SW TCL 45 NNW PNS PNS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW P38 35 WSW BIH 25 ESE SCK 45 ENE UKI 30 WNW MHS 55 NNW LMT 50 SSE RDM 35 WNW BOI SUN 45 W BPI RKS 40 WNW CAG 55 NNE GJT 30 SW GJT 30 NNW U17 15 SSW P38. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...OK...KS AND THE OZARK PLATEAU... A SLOW-MOVING CUTOFF LOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE EWD TONIGHT AND MOVE INTO THE SRN PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY. IN RESPONSE...THE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE OVER THE SRN PLAINS...TRANSPORTING ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM WCNTRL TX NWD INTO OK ON WEDNESDAY. SFC DEWPOINTS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 60S F ACROSS ERN OK AND WRN AR AS THE WELL-ORGANIZED UPPER TROUGH SPREADS A FOCUSED BAND OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT EWD. THIS SHOULD MAKE THE ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR SCATTERED STRONG STORMS WEDNESDAY EVENING AND DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD ACROSS THE REGION. STORMS SHOULD INITIATE ACROSS ECNTRL OK AND ERN KS BY THE EARLY EVENING...EXPANDING AND PROPAGATING EWD ACROSS THE OZARK PLATEAU. AN MCS MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WITH ADEQUATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR SEVERE STORMS (0-6 KM SHEAR AROUND 40 KT). IN ADDITION...LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.0 C/KM AND 500 MB TEMPS OF -15 TO -18 C SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR HAIL. HOWEVER... THE EXTENT OF THE SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY DEPEND ON HOW MUCH SFC HEATING TAKES PLACE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...THE UPPER-TROUGH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE SRN PLAINS WEDNESDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH LIKELIHOOD OF THE EVENT OCCURRING MOSTLY AFTER DARK...SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL SOMEWHAT. ..BROYLES.. 11/09/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Nov 10 05:54:28 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 10 Nov 2004 00:54:28 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200411100554.iAA5smg17259@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 100552 SWODY2 SPC AC 100551 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1151 PM CST TUE NOV 09 2004 VALID 111200Z - 121200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM LRD NIR VCT CLL ACT FTW DUA UMN COU SPI IND UNI 35 S EKN 40 E LYH RWI 70 SSW HSE ...CONT... 35 SSW CHS 65 WNW SAV VLD 55 SW CTY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ACV LMT BOI IDA LND CAG MTJ CEZ BCE CDC P38 DRA 55 NW NID MRY. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVE UPPER AIR PATTERN FCST THROUGH PERIOD...FEATURING AMPLIFICATION OF NRN STREAM TROUGH ACROSS GREAT LAKES AND ONT...AND TWO IN A SERIES OF SRN STREAM LOWS. FIRST LOW -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER SRN CO AND NRN MN -- IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY EWD ACROSS KS/OK BORDER REGION DAY-1. THROUGH THIS PERIOD...EXPECT LOW TO WEAKEN INTO OPEN-WAVE TROUGH AS IT MOVES FROM OZARKS EWD ACROSS TN VALLEY...AND PHASES WITH STRENGTHENING GREAT LAKES TROUGH. ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT -- NOW ANALYZED FROM NWRN NM SWWD ACROSS WRN NEB -- IS FCST TO SWEEP SEWD ACROSS TX/AR/LA AND INTO NWRN GULF DURING DAY-2. AS UPPER TROUGH DEAMPLIFIES...FRONTAL-WAVE CYCLONE AT SFC WILL WEAKEN AS WELL...MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS AR/MS. ...MS DELTA AND GULF COAST STATES... SCATTERED TSTMS POSSIBLE BOTH IN COLD CORE REGION OF MIDLEVEL LOW/TROUGH...AND ALONG/AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT. SEVERE PROBABILITIES ARE KEPT MARGINAL ATTM BECAUSE OF NUMEROUS MIXED/OFFSETTING FCST SIGNALS. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS FCST TO STRENGTHEN WITH NWD EXTENT FROM GULF COAST...WHILE LOW LEVEL THETAE WILL BE STRONGER NEAR COAST. ALTHOUGH UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BE WEAKENING WITH TIME...VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL. MAIN CONCERN IS INCOMPLETE MOISTURE RETURN AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS ON BUOYANCY. BROAD AREA OF PARTIALLY MODIFIED RETURN FLOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS THIS REGION AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT. TRAJECTORIES ACROSS GULF WILL HAVE BEEN RATHER SHORT...EXCEPT FOR RELATIVELY NARROW CORRIDOR IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT WHERE LOW-MID 60S F SFC DEW POINTS ARE POSSIBLE. WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED ASCENT WEAKENING...AND EXTENSIVE PRECIP FIELDS LIKELY...EXPECT MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ONLY SLIGHTLY ABOVE MOIST ADIABATIC. THIS FACTOR...ALONG WITH LIKELIHOOD OF PREFRONTAL LOW CLOUDS TO LIMIT INSOLATION...SHOULD KEEP MLCAPES UNDER 1000 J/KG OVER MOST AREAS. ..EDWARDS.. 11/10/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Nov 10 17:25:53 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 10 Nov 2004 12:25:53 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200411101726.iAAHQBg03195@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 101723 SWODY2 SPC AC 101722 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1122 AM CST WED NOV 10 2004 VALID 111200Z - 121200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W MFE 30 NE AUS 20 WNW PRX 20 S UMN 35 E SGF 30 SE MVN 25 WNW HTS 25 N BKW 30 ESE LYH 25 W ECG 15 NNE HSE ...CONT... 20 NNE SSI 20 NNE AYS 30 NNE VLD 35 SE TLH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM EKA 65 N LMT 65 NNW BNO BKE 65 WSW 27U 55 SE RIW 40 NNW LAR 10 W FCL 30 SSW 4FC 25 ESE GJT 50 E MLF 55 N P38 30 WSW BIH 10 SSW MRY. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...MS/ERN LA/ERN AR/SW TN/WRN AL... A CUTOFF LOW ACROSS THE SRN/CNTRL PLAINS WILL FILL AND DRIFT EWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY BY MIDDAY THURSDAY. THIS WILL HELP DRIVE A COLD FRONT EWD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SUPPORT A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL BE ONGOING NEAR THE MS RIVER AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. THE LINE WILL MOVE EWD INTO MS BY EARLY AFTERNOON ENCOUNTERING HIGHER SFC DEWPOINTS AND STRONGER INSTABILITY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW 30 TO 40 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WHICH MAY SUPPORT A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS. ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE MARGINAL...500 MB TEMPS OF -13 TO -15 C AND WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AROUND 10000 FT ACROSS CNTRL/NRN MS AND NW AL SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR HAIL WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. HOWEVER...THE HAIL POTENTIAL SHOULD BE LIMITED SOMEWHAT DUE TO THE WEAK INSTABILITY FORECAST. A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT COULD ALSO EXIST DUE TO THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. THE LINEAR MCS SHOULD CONTINUE EWD ACROSS AL DURING THE EVENING HOURS...GRADUALLY WEAKENING DUE TO DECREASING INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION. ..BROYLES.. 11/10/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Nov 11 06:41:43 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 11 Nov 2004 01:41:43 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200411110641.iAB6fxg14755@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 110639 SWODY2 SPC AC 110638 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1238 AM CST THU NOV 11 2004 VALID 121200Z - 131200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PNS SEM BHM CSV LOZ JKL CRW EKN BWI ACY ...CONT... 45 SE JAX 45 SSE CTY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM OTH MFR 10 SE MHS 55 SSW TVL MER MRY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM EVW VEL GUC ALS SAF ONM SOW PRC 55 ENE LAS 60 WSW ELY EKO 50 S TWF EVW. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES FOR THIS PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL LOW NOW OVER NERN OK IS EXPECTED TO BECOME OPEN WAVE TROUGH AND MERGE INTO AMPLIFYING TROUGH ACROSS UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION. MEANWHILE...PACIFIC UPPER LOW -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OFFSHORE NRN CA -- IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND THROUGH DAY-1...THEN DRIFT ACROSS SRN GREAT BASIN REGION THROUGH MOST OF DAY-3. STRONG UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY MOVE ONSHORE NRN CA LATE IN PERIOD -- DESTABILIZING AIR MASS ENOUGH FOR MARGINAL GEN THUNDER POTENTIAL AS IT MERGES INTO WRN SEMICIRCLE OF GREAT BASIN CYCLONE ALOFT. AT SFC...COLD FRONT NOW ANALYZED FROM NRN IL SWWD ACROSS ERN OK AND SW TX IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS ERN GULF COAST...SRN APPALACHIANS AND SRN PIEDMONT THROUGH DAY-2. ...SERN CONUS... TSTMS FCST ALONG/AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT FROM FL PANHANDLE NEWD TO PORTIONS SRN MID-ATLANTIC. GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SFC-BASED CONVECTION SHOULD BE OVER ERN GULF COASTAL PLAIN EARLY IN PERIOD...AND PERHAPS NEWD TOWARD SERN NC BY AFTERNOON/EVENING. STRONGEST LOW LEVEL BUOYANCY -- INVOF GULF COAST -- SHOULD BE HORIZONTALLY DISPLACED FROM MOST FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR OVER SRN APPALACHIANS AND SRN PIEDMONT. MLCAPES 100-500 J/KG ARE PRESENT IN FCST SOUNDINGS AS FAR N AS ILM/MHX REGION...BASED ON OPTIMAL MODIFICATION OF ATLANTIC AIR MASS WITH SFC DEW POINTS LOW-MID 60S F NEAR COAST. MOST PROGS INDICATE RELATIVELY BACKED SFC WINDS IN THIS AREA IN PROXIMITY TO WEAK FRONTAL-WAVE LOW...WHICH MAY ENHANCE 0-3 KM HODOGRAPHS. HOWEVER...WEAK LAPSE RATES AND LACK OF STRONGER DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PRECLUDE SEVERE PROBABILITIES ATTM. ...GREAT BASIN/4 CORNERS AREA... ISOLATED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT PERIOD INVOF COLD-CORE REGION OF UPPER LOW...WHERE STEEPEST MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL CAPE ARE EXPECTED. TSTM POTENTIAL SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED DURING AFTERNOON WHEN SFC HEATING MAXIMIZES DEEP-LAYER LAPSE RATES. PRIND AIRMASS WILL NOT BE UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT. ..EDWARDS.. 11/11/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Nov 11 17:06:00 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 11 Nov 2004 12:06:00 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200411111706.iABH6Eg18506@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 111703 SWODY2 SPC AC 111702 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1102 AM CST THU NOV 11 2004 VALID 121200Z - 131200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E MOB 25 SSW TCL 10 NNE MSL 35 WSW BNA 35 ENE BWG 10 E UNI 20 NE PKB 40 NW EKN 45 SW EKN 10 SE SSU 20 W LYH 35 W RIC 15 S WAL ...CONT... 30 N DAB 55 N PIE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 WNW TCS 30 NNE PHX 25 SW IGM LAS 60 W P38 55 N ELY 25 NNW ENV 45 SSW MLD 15 W EVW 25 NW GUC 40 NE SAF 40 SE ABQ 85 WNW TCS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 S AST EUG 25 S MFR 30 NNW RBL 60 N SAC 35 ESE SAC 25 S SCK 25 SW SJC. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A CLOSED OFF LOW AT 500 MB LOCATED OVER SW MO. THIS FEATURE WILL OPEN...MOVING EWD AND DAMPENING ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN MTNS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS GA AND WRN SC EARLY IN THE PERIOD DUE TO STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. AS INSTABILITY INCREASES DURING THE DAY...CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD EXPAND AS THE STORMS MOVE NEWD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MARGINAL LAPSE RATES AND RELATIVELY WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES. THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EWD THURSDAY AFTERNOON...A LINE OF STORMS SHOULD ORGANIZE ACROSS ERN SC AND CNTRL NC BY 21Z MOVING ACROSS ERN NC DURING THE EVENING HOURS AND OFFSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT. ..BROYLES.. 11/11/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Nov 12 06:07:14 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 12 Nov 2004 01:07:14 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200411120607.iAC67Rg32427@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 120605 SWODY2 SPC AC 120604 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1204 AM CST FRI NOV 12 2004 VALID 131200Z - 141200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S CTY 25 SSE SSI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W PRB 40 NNE OXR DAG 35 S SGU PGA 40 NNW GUP 35 SSW DMN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSW P07 30 WNW INK 45 E ROW 40 ESE TCC 50 ENE AMA CSM 35 ESE SPS 10 SSE CLL 25 WSW GLS. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... BROAD...MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND 4-CORNERS REGION THROUGH THE DAY 2 PERIOD WITH TWO WELL-DEFINED PERTURBATIONS FORECAST TO ROTATE THROUGH THE MEAN PATTERN. THE LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH /CURRENTLY NEAR SAN FRANCISCO BAY/ IS EXPECTED TO EJECT NEWD FROM NRN MEXICO ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY...PRIOR TO LIFTING MORE NWD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...THE NEXT UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE /OBSERVED NEAR 42N/142W PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/ WILL DIG SEWD ALONG THE CA COAST INTO THE TROUGH BASE OVER NRN BAJA CA/GULF OF CA BY SUNDAY MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...EXPANSIVE ANTICYCLONE E OF THE ROCKIES WILL MAINTAIN A DRY...STABLE AIR MASS ACROSS MUCH OF THE ERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE NATION. ...TX... MOISTURE RETURN WITHIN REGION OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT FROM THE NWRN GULF OF MEXICO NWD ACROSS TX WILL SUPPORT POCKETS OF WEAK INSTABILITY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ELEVATED TSTMS AS LEAD DISTURBANCE LIFTS NEWD ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. ...SWRN STATES... STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INCREASED LARGE-SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING 80-90 KT JET STREAK ARE EXPECTED TO LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN CA ESEWD INTO AZ. THOUGH INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN WEAK...THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND COOL TEMPERATURE PROFILES MAY SUPPORT SOME SMALL HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. ...FL... POTENTIAL FOR A FEW TSTMS WILL EXIST ALONG AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT SAGGING SWD ACROSS THE PENINSULA WITHIN WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPES OF AROUND 500 J/KG. ..MEAD.. 11/12/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Nov 12 17:32:14 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 12 Nov 2004 12:32:14 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200411121732.iACHWPg23712@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 121729 SWODY2 SPC AC 121728 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1128 AM CST FRI NOV 12 2004 VALID 131200Z - 141200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S CTY 25 SSE SSI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSW P07 30 WNW INK 45 E ROW 40 ESE TCC 50 ENE AMA CSM 35 ESE SPS 10 SSE CLL 25 WSW GLS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W PRB 40 NNE OXR DAG 35 S SGU PGA 40 NNW GUP 35 SSW DMN. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... AN UPPER-LOW OVER THE WRN US WILL BROADEN SATURDAY AS AN UPPER-RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE CNTRL US. AT THE SFC...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WILL SLIDE SLOWLY EWD ALLOWING FOR LITTLE MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH SATURDAY. STRONG ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-TROUGH WILL PROMOTE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE SRN PLAINS. ANOTHER AREA OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST UNDER THE UPPER-LOW. A THIRD AREA IS POSSIBLE ACROSS FL ASSOCIATED SFC HEATING AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A COLD FRONT. ..BROYLES.. 11/12/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Nov 13 05:41:19 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 13 Nov 2004 00:41:19 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200411130541.iAD5fTg22294@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 130539 SWODY2 SPC AC 130538 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1138 PM CST FRI NOV 12 2004 VALID 141200Z - 151200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE ELP 30 SSE CNM 55 SSE CDS 55 ESE SPS 55 NNE CLL 40 SSW LFK 35 SSW HUM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNE SRQ 30 SE DAB. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST... MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE SHARPENING TROUGH FROM THE CNTRL ROCKIES INTO NRN MEXICO. LATEST SHORT-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM SWD FROM NEAR THE 4-CORNERS REGION INTO SONORA MEXICO BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS IS LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO STRONG UPPER JET CURRENTLY OFF THE NRN CA COAST /PER GOES WATER VAPOR DERIVED WINDS/...WHICH WILL DIVE SWD INTO TROUGH BASE. AT THE SURFACE...PRIMARY SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN WELL S OF INTERNATIONAL BORDER WITH RIDGE AXIS REMAINING ENTRENCHED OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. INCREASING ELY BOUNDARY-LAYER FLOW OVER THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MODIFICATION OF CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR MASS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DEWPOINTS TO INCREASE INTO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS DEEP S TX AND ADJACENT COASTAL PLAIN. PERSISTENT SELY LLJ IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN TRANSPORT OF MODIFIED GULF AIR MASS NWWD ABOVE STABLE BOUNDARY-LAYER...CONTRIBUTING TO POCKETS OF WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY INTO PORTIONS OF NRN AND WRN TX. LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT PATTERN...AS WELL AS WITH ANY WEAK DISTURBANCES EJECTING OUT OF TROUGH BASE...WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SOME ELEVATED TSTM ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...ANY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL REMAIN NEGLIGIBLE OWING TO THE WEAK INSTABILITY. ..MEAD.. 11/13/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Nov 13 17:20:30 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 13 Nov 2004 12:20:30 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200411131720.iADHKcg31172@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 131717 SWODY2 SPC AC 131716 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1116 AM CST SAT NOV 13 2004 VALID 141200Z - 151200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE DUG 15 NE ROW 50 SE CDS 40 NNW FTW 40 SE DAL 65 NNE CLL 40 S LFK LCH 30 SE 7R4. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... AN UPPER-LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL SLOWLY DIG SWD TONIGHT AND SUNDAY INTO NRN MEXICO. AROUND THE EAST SIDE OF THE LOW...SSW FLOW ALOFT WILL SPREAD STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED...A DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL JET WILL PROVIDE ISENTROPIC LIFT FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY ACROSS TX. ..BROYLES.. 11/13/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Nov 14 05:47:05 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 14 Nov 2004 00:47:05 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200411140547.iAE5lCg17322@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 140545 SWODY2 SPC AC 140544 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1144 PM CST SAT NOV 13 2004 VALID 151200Z - 161200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 E DUG 20 SSE SVC 20 WNW ALM 40 SSW ROW 30 NE HOB 30 WNW CDS LTS 15 NNE SPS 10 SE FTW 55 W LFK 30 NNW LCH 20 SW HUM. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE LOWER CO VALLEY IS FORECAST TO DIG SWD THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY 1 PERIOD...PRIOR TO SHIFTING SLOWLY EWD ACROSS NRN MEXICO ON MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN OVER ERN CHIHUAHUA/WRN COAHUILA MEXICO WITH AN ATTENDANT INVERTED TROUGH STRENGTHENING OVER PORTIONS OF WRN TX. ...TX... QUALITY LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WILL REMAIN PROBLEMATIC THIS FORECAST OWING TO INFLUENCE OF LARGE OH VALLEY ANTICYCLONE ON GULF OF MEXICO SURFACE TRAJECTORIES. CURRENT BUOY OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE NRN GULF INDICATE DEWPOINTS LARGELY IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. SOME NWWD ADVECTION OF THIS MOISTURE WILL LIKELY OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO INTENSIFICATION OF INVERTED TROUGH OVER WRN TX. DESPITE THIS...IT APPEARS THAT PERSISTENT CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION AND RESULTANT WEAK LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SLOW THE DESTABILIZATION PROCESS. THOUGH CLUSTERS OF TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM NEAR THE INVERTED TROUGH SEWD TO THE COAST...THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. ..MEAD.. 11/14/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Nov 14 17:31:19 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 14 Nov 2004 12:31:19 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200411141731.iAEHVOg17188@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 141729 SWODY2 SPC AC 141728 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1128 AM CST SUN NOV 14 2004 VALID 151200Z - 161200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ESE DUG 50 SW DMN 25 WSW DMN 30 NNE DMN 20 WNW ALM 40 SW ROW 60 W LBB 15 ENE PVW 20 N CDS LTS 15 N SPS 10 SSE FTW 50 W LFK 30 NNW LCH 20 SW HUM. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... AN UPPER-TROUGH ACROSS NRN MEXICO WILL CONTINUE A SLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS MONDAY. ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND WIDESPREAD ASCENT ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL CREATE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE MOST WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY SHOULD OCCUR AT NIGHT AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES LIFT ACROSS THE REGION. ACROSS SOUTH TX...SFC-BASED STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG A STALLED FRONT WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S F WITH MODEST INSTABILITY IN PLACE BY AFTERNOON. ..BROYLES.. 11/14/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Nov 18 06:56:57 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 18 Nov 2004 01:56:57 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200411180659.iAI6x0E15238@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 180655 SWODY2 SPC AC 180654 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1254 AM CST THU NOV 18 2004 VALID 191200Z - 201200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E CRP 15 WSW COT 45 SW JCT 10 S BGS 45 NE HOB 35 NW ONM 30 SE FMN 30 SW ALS 55 N CAO 10 SSE EHA 15 NW GAG 15 N CSM 20 E LTS 20 E SPS 40 ENE DUA 10 S FSM 25 N UMN FLV 45 SE OMA 50 WNW DSM 25 SSW ALO 20 NW MLI 30 NE PIA 25 SE DNV 35 SE IND 25 ENE SDF 30 S BWG 40 SW BNA 35 ENE TUP 15 WNW CBM 15 NE MEI 60 NNE MOB 15 S PNS. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... HIGHLY AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE DURING THE DAY 2 PERIOD AS A STRONG LARGE SCALE TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. A COUPLE OF DEAMPLIFYING SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCES DOWNSTREAM FROM THE DIGGING WESTERN TROUGH WILL ACCELERATE ENEWD ACROSS MIDSECTION OF THE CONUS THROUGH FRIDAY. ONE OF THESE FEATURES...CURRENTLY AN OCCLUDING CYCLONE OVER OK...WILL OPEN UP AND PARTIALLY PHASE WITH A NRN STREAM IMPULSE WHILE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY. A LOWER AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY APPROACHING SRN CA WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST TO THE SRN PLAINS BY FRIDAY NIGHT...AND THEN TO THE MIDWEST/MID MS VALLEY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. DEEP LAYER OFFSHORE FLOW CURRENTLY EXISTS ACROSS THE TX GULF COAST IN THE WAKE OF THE SRN PLAINS UPPER LOW AND WEAK FROPA. HOWEVER... MOIST SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME REESTABLISHED BY EARLY FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT MID LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE WESTERN TROUGH. AS WARM/MOIST AIR STREAMS INLAND ACROSS SERN TX ATOP COOLER SURFACE-BASED AIRMASS...WARM CONVEYOR BELT CONVECTION WILL LIKELY EXPAND LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. ...SE TX... BOTH ETA AND GFS HAVE BEEN TRENDING IN THE DIRECTION OF GREATER INSTABILITY ACROSS THE NWRN GULF AND THE TX COASTAL PLAIN OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS AS WEAKENING LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE REMAINS CLOSE TO SHORE. THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY MOVE BACK ONSHORE WITH 65-70F DEWPOINTS POSSIBLE IN THE WARM SECTOR BY FRIDAY MORNING. FORCING FOR ASCENT ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN WEAK UNTIL LATER FRIDAY WHEN BROAD CYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS AND STJ SPEED MAX IS FORECAST TO APPROACH S TX FROM NRN MEXICO. AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT DEEPENS AND STRENGTHENS IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING IMPULSE...EXPECT ELEVATED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP BY LATE IN THE PERIOD. PROXIMITY TO MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG...STRONG SHEAR...AND INCREASING ASCENT NORTH OF DEVELOPING SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ELEVATED SUPERCELLS WITHIN THE LARGER AREA OF CONVECTION. A COUPLE OF HAIL/WIND REPORTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THIS ACTIVITY INCREASES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING. ..CARBIN.. 11/18/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Nov 18 17:25:12 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 18 Nov 2004 12:25:12 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200411181727.iAIHRfE01211@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 181724 SWODY2 SPC AC 181723 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1123 AM CST THU NOV 18 2004 VALID 191200Z - 201200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E CRP 15 WSW COT 45 WSW JCT 30 ENE BGS 15 SSW TCC 45 SW CAO 10 SSW EHA 35 NW CSM 50 SE SPS 20 E DUA 10 NW PGO 15 NW SGF 40 NW ALN 30 NW EVV 10 SSW BWG 55 SW BNA 25 SSW CBM 60 NNE MOB 15 S PNS. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE INTO LATE WEEK AS A LARGE SCALE TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THE SUBTROPICAL JET ALONG THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACTIVE AND CARRY THE DISTURBANCE APPROACHING NRN BAJA INTO NRN MEXICO AND S TX BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE NWRN GULF WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT NWWD INTO SERN TX AGAIN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THE HIGHEST TSTM PROBABILITIES DURING THE DAY 2 PERIOD. ...SERN TX... RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN IN EARNEST FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAK APPROACHES S TX. LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE LURKING JUST OFFSHORE WILL MOVE NWWD ONTO THE CNTRL/UPPER TX COAST BY FRIDAY NIGHT. ENHANCED LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL PROBABLY BE DELAYED UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN THE DISTURBANCE SHOULD BE MOVING INTO S TX. THUS...ELEVATED CONVECTION THAT SHOULD DEVELOP FRIDAY WILL INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS SERN TX. INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR IN THE CAPE BEARING LAYER WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLD SUPERCELLS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. MORE SURFACE BASED TSTMS MAY FORM VCNTY THE RETREATING FRONT ACROSS THE MID-UPPER COASTAL PLAINS VERY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY AND RISKS FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND BRIEF TORNADOES COULD INCREASE. GIVEN THAT THE THESE THREATS WILL MAINLY EXIST LATE IN THE DAY 2 PERIOD...WILL MAINTAIN ONLY LOW PROBABILITIES ATTM. ..RACY.. 11/18/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Nov 19 05:34:41 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 19 Nov 2004 00:34:41 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200411190536.iAJ5agE30160@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 190535 SWODY2 SPC AC 190534 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1134 PM CST THU NOV 18 2004 VALID 201200Z - 211200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 WSW TUS 40 SW PRC 20 SW GCN 25 NW 4BL 20 NW MTJ 10 N GUC 40 NNW ALS 30 NNW LVS 60 ENE 4CR 35 S CVS 50 WNW CDS 45 WSW CSM 25 N FSI 25 WNW ADM 15 SW DUA 35 NW GGG 30 ENE SHV 40 SW GLH 25 SW TUP 30 NNE TCL 10 NE SEM 25 WSW PNS. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...WRN/CNTRL GULF COAST STATES... LATE EVENING MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS SOME VARIABILITY WITH DIGGING TROUGH ACROSS THE 4-CORNERS REGION. ETA MODEL IS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND FASTER WITH HEIGHT FALLS INTO THE SRN ROCKIES LATE DAY2...WHILE THE GFS MAINTAINS A BIT MORE RIDGING ALONG THE TX COAST. IN EITHER SCENARIO IT APPEARS WEAK WARM ADVECTION WILL PERSIST FROM THE MIDDLE TX COAST...NEWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION. THIS WILL MAINTAIN OR HEIGHTEN A COASTAL BOUNDARY THAT SHOULD PROVE EFFICIENT IN GENERATING DEEP CONVECTION MUCH OF THE PERIOD. RESULTANT WARM SECTOR AND HIGHER THETA-E AIR WILL STRUGGLE TO SPREAD TOO FAR INLAND PREVENTING SIGNIFICANT DESTABILIZATION. LATEST THINKING IS SCATTERED-NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL EVOLVE AND SPREAD NEWD FROM THE MIDDLE TX COAST INTO LA. DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT STORM ROTATION BUT MARGINAL THERMAL PROFILES AND RELATIVELY WEAK LOW LEVEL SHEAR WARRANTS ONLY LOW PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS ZONE. ..DARROW.. 11/19/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Nov 19 16:43:39 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 19 Nov 2004 11:43:39 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200411191645.iAJGjbE11849@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 191635 SWODY2 SPC AC 191635 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1035 AM CST FRI NOV 19 2004 VALID 201200Z - 211200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DRT 15 ENE BGS 40 SW AMA 50 N CDS ADM 35 WSW TXK 10 S GLH 20 S TUP 20 WSW BHM 15 SSE SEM 15 SW PNS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 ESE PHX 50 W PRC 45 ENE LAS 20 S CNY 35 SE GUC 35 E ABQ 35 W TCS 10 WSW SAD 65 ESE PHX. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SERN TX COAST INTO SRN LA... LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL UPPER FLOW PATTERN CAN BE EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND AS LARGE SCALE TROUGH DIGS IN THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. SUBTROPICAL JETLETS EJECTING AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE NRN MEXICO INTO TX AND THE LOWER MS VLY THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT TIMING OF THESE DISTURBANCES WILL REMAIN DIFFICULT. BAROCLINIC ZONE MOVING TO VCNTY SERN TX COAST SHOULD REMAIN THERE ON SATURDAY AS ANY MEANINGFUL LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS REMAIN UPSTREAM ACROSS THE SRN DESERTS/GREAT BASIN. THIS FRONT...THOUGH...WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR PERIODIC TSTM CLUSTERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WEAK WARM ADVECTION REGIME...ENHANCED AT TIMES BY WEAK SUBTROPICAL JETLETS...WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY FROM SERN TX INTO SRN LA. LARGELY ELEVATED TSTMS CAN BE EXPECTED TO EXPAND NEWD FROM TONIGHTS ACTIVITY INTO SRN LA SATURDAY...THOUGH MORE SURFACE BASED TSTMS MAY FORM VCNTY THE FRONT ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON/ NIGHT. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN ENOUGH FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS...BUT GIVEN POOR MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WEAK INSTABILITY...THE THREATS FOR SEVERE APPEAR LOW ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE A CATEGORICAL SLGT RISK ATTM. ..RACY.. 11/19/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Nov 20 04:58:51 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 19 Nov 2004 23:58:51 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200411200500.iAK50lE24446@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 200459 SWODY2 SPC AC 200458 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1058 PM CST FRI NOV 19 2004 VALID 211200Z - 221200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SSW GBN 35 ENE YUM 35 NNE BLH 60 W GCN 40 NW U17 15 WSW CNY 10 ESE GJT 10 NNE GUC 10 SSE ALS 50 SSE SAF 60 E 4CR 30 S CVS 15 N PVW 10 W CDS 20 NNW SPS 35 SW DUA 45 NNE TYR 30 SE ELD 30 ENE GWO 20 NNE GAD 30 NW AHN 40 NNW AGS 45 SSW AGS 25 NNE ABY 15 SW DHN 15 E GPT 25 S HUM. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SOUTH TX/LA COAST... LATEST MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO SLOW EWD PROGRESSION OF DIGGING UPPER LOW ACROSS THE SWRN U.S. SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH THIS FEATURE WILL NOT AFFECT SOUTH TX/LA UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK...PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL LIKELY BE RESPONSIBLE FOR EPISODIC DEEP CONVECTIVE EVENTS ALONG NWD DRIFTING COASTAL FRONT. THE MAIN IMPEDIMENT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS ZONE IS THE EXPECTED WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW INTO THE BOUNDARY. IN ADDITION...CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AND PRECIPITATION WILL UNDOUBTEDLY LIMIT OVERALL DESTABILIZATION WITH RESULTANT MARGINAL LAPSE RATES NOT PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR A LOT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. EVEN SO...IT APPEARS SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT ROTATING THUNDERSTORMS...AND WITH A SLOW MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER THERE WILL BE AT LEAST LOW PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ..DARROW.. 11/20/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Nov 20 16:57:05 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 20 Nov 2004 11:57:05 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200411201659.iAKGx0E07289@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 201657 SWODY2 SPC AC 201656 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1056 AM CST SAT NOV 20 2004 VALID 211200Z - 221200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SSW GBN 35 ENE YUM 35 NNE BLH 60 W GCN 40 NW U17 15 WSW CNY 10 ESE GJT 10 NNE GUC 10 SSE ALS 50 SSE SAF 60 E 4CR 30 S CVS 15 N PVW 10 W CDS 20 NNW SPS 35 SW DUA 45 NNE TYR 30 SE ELD 30 ENE GWO 20 NNE GAD 30 NW AHN 40 NNW AGS 45 SSW AGS 25 NNE ABY 15 SW DHN 15 E GPT 25 S HUM. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... THE UPPER LOW DIGGING SWD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN ATTM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE DESERTS ON SUNDAY BEFORE TURNING EWD TOWARD THE SRN ROCKIES SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY. THE SUB-TROPICAL JET WILL REMAIN ACTIVE DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS FEATURE...WITH NUMEROUS LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EJECTING ACROSS CNTRL/NRN MEXICO ACROSS TX AND INTO THE LOWER MS VLY. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...FRONT NOW LOCATED VCNTY THE SERN TX COAST WWD INTO DEEP S TX MAY DRIFT A LITTLE FARTHER N BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR TSTMS. ...SCNTRL-SERN TX AND SRN LA... TSTMS WILL BE ONGOING EARLY SUNDAY FROM SERN TX INTO SRN LA AS MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH...NOW MOVING ACROSS NM...EJECTS INTO THE LOWER MS VLY. IN ITS WAKE...WEAK LARGE SCALE RIDGING DEVELOPING ACROSS TX...DOWNSTREAM FROM THE DIGGING DESERT UPPER LOW...MAY CAUSE A DECREASE OR WEAKENING OF THE DEEP CONVECTION SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS WILL ONCE AGAIN SPREAD EWD ACROSS SCNTRL- SERN TX LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. RENEWED WARM ADVECTION REGIME WILL GENERATE ANOTHER ROUND OF TSTMS ALONG/NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING...PRIMARILY ACROSS CNTRL-NRN TX. ENOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL EXIST FOR ISOLD EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS CLOSER TO THE FRONT. MAIN SEVERE THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL GIVEN LARGELY ELEVATED NATURE TO THE CELLS. BUT...IF MORE SURFACE BASED ACTIVITY CAN FORM IN THE MOISTENING WARM SECTOR...DAMAGING WINDS/ISOLD TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. AT THIS POINT...TIMING DETAILS OF IMPENDING SHORTWAVES AND QUESTIONS ON MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY WILL PRECLUDE CATEGORICAL SLGT RISKS/HIGHER PROBABILITIES. ..RACY.. 11/20/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Nov 21 05:31:21 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 21 Nov 2004 00:31:21 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200411210533.iAL5XEE10023@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 210530 SWODY2 SPC AC 210530 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1130 PM CST SAT NOV 20 2004 VALID 221200Z - 231200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE CRP 15 N DRT 55 ENE P07 50 SE LBB 20 SW CDS 25 SE LTS 35 SW DUA 35 N TYR 55 S SHV 25 SSE POE 25 SSW LCH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 WSW TUS 20 NE GBN 60 WSW PRC 65 NNE IGM 35 SW BCE 35 SW 4HV 50 SE CNY 35 SSW GUC 45 SE ALS 15 NW DHT 20 SSE GAG 10 NNW TUL 35 ESE SGF 30 SW PAH BNA 10 N CHA 30 W ATL 30 NE MGM 30 NW LUL 35 SSE HEZ 25 WSW 7R4. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF TX... ...TX... SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUNS APPEAR TO BE CONVERGING ON A LATE DAY2/EARLY DAY3 UPPER TROUGH EJECTION INTO TX. STRONG HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD ALLOWING LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE TO SHARPEN FROM A SFC LOW POSITION OVER THE SRN TX PANHANDLE. PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE ISOLATED-SCT THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MIDDLE TX COAST...NEWD INTO LA. HOWEVER THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT NWD AS WARM FRONT BEGINS TO RESPOND TO UPSTREAM TROUGH. RESULTANT WARM SECTOR EXPANSION WILL ALLOW MUCH OF THE MAIN BODY OF TX TO RECOVER SUFFICIENTLY FOR SFC-BASED CONVECTION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. WITH DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR EXPECTED TO SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION...THE MAIN QUESTION FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE DEGREE OF RECOVERY AND TIMING OF LARGE SCALE FORCING. LACK OF SIGNIFICANT HEATING AND LATE NIGHT INFLUENCE OF UPPER TROUGH FAVOR AN INCREASING THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 00Z/23RD. A FORCED SQUALL LINE MAY EVOLVE AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG COLD FRONT WHILE MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE WITH BROADER WARM ADVECTION ZONE DOWNSTREAM. ..DARROW.. 11/21/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Nov 21 17:05:12 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 21 Nov 2004 12:05:12 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200411211707.iALH73E17827@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 211704 SWODY2 SPC AC 211703 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1103 AM CST SUN NOV 21 2004 VALID 221200Z - 231200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSE VCT 10 NNW COT 25 E DRT 50 SE MAF 55 SE LBB 30 SSE CDS 15 NW SPS 35 SW DUA 35 N TYR 55 S SHV 25 SSE POE 25 SSW LCH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 WSW TUS 20 NE GBN 60 WSW PRC 65 NNE IGM 35 SW BCE 35 SW 4HV 50 SE CNY 35 SSW GUC 45 SE ALS 15 NW DHT 20 SSE GAG 25 NW MKO 25 NE HRO 10 N DYR 45 S BNA 10 N CHA 30 W ATL 15 SE TOI 10 ENE PNS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 S CRP 45 S LRD. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF TX... ...SYNOPSIS... POWERFUL UPPER LOW NOW OVER SRN CA WILL BEGIN TO TURN EAST TODAY... THEN ACCELERATE EWD ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES TO THE SRN PLAINS BY MONDAY NIGHT. SURFACE FRONT VCNTY SCNTRL-SERN TX WILL MOVE NWD AS THE FLOW BACKS AHEAD OF THE UPPER SYSTEM ON MONDAY. LEE LOW WILL INTENSIFY OVER THE TX PNHDL LATE IN THE PERIOD AS A PACIFIC FRONT MIGRATES INTO W TX. ...SRN PLAINS/TX... LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH UPSTREAM UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN SPREADING EWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS/TX...PRIMARILY MONDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD BEGIN TO EXPAND NWD INTO AT LEAST CNTRL TX. THIS WILL LIKELY SET THE STAGE FOR INCREASING SEVERE PROBABILITIES. LATE ARRIVAL OF MEANINGFUL HEIGHT FALLS PROBABLY WILL RESULT IN MOST OF THE SEVERE WEATHER OCCURRING POST 00Z/23. UNTIL THEN...HOWEVER...A FEW ORGANIZED TSTMS MAY BE EMBEDDED WITHIN CONVECTIVE BAND ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT ACROSS SERN TX EARLY IN THE DAY. IF SURFACE BASED STORMS CAN FORM... DAMAGING WINDS/ISOLD TORNADOES COULD DEVELOP...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH. AS THE STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT ARRIVES LATE MONDAY NIGHT...TSTMS WILL LIKELY BECOME STRONGER ALONG THE WARM FRONT FROM CNTRL THROUGH ERN TX. MEANWHILE...IF MODEL TIMING OF UPPER SYSTEM IS CORRECT...TSTMS MAY INITIATE ALONG THE PACIFIC FRONT ACROSS WCNTRL TX LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THESE STORMS WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE SEVERE WITH HAIL AND HIGH WINDS AS THEY MOVE ENEWD TOWARD CNTRL-NRN TX...MAINLY IN THE DAY 3 PERIOD. ..RACY.. 11/21/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Nov 22 06:34:47 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 22 Nov 2004 01:34:47 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200411220636.iAM6abE16798@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 220634 SWODY2 SPC AC 220634 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1234 AM CST MON NOV 22 2004 VALID 231200Z - 241200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WNW GLS 45 SW LFK 35 SSE TYR 25 NE GGG 35 WSW ELD 30 NNW MLU 40 ESE MLU 30 NNW BTR 30 ESE 7R4. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NE CRP SAT 45 ENE JCT 30 ENE ABI 15 NW SPS 15 ESE OKC 15 SSW SGF 25 S BLV 25 WNW EVV 25 NE BWG 40 WSW CSV 15 S BHM 25 SE GPT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW DUG 60 WNW SAD 40 SSW INW 70 NE INW 40 NNW 4SL 30 SW DHT 65 ENE AMA 40 SW END 30 SE CNU 10 NW ALN 15 ESE DNV 20 NE MIE 35 WNW CMH UNI 25 SE 5I3 30 N ATL 25 S CEW. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SERN TX AND LA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK FROM CNTRL TX INTO WRN KY... ...LOWER MS VALLEY/GULF COAST... 00Z MODEL RUNS PROVIDE REASONABLE CONFIDENCE THAT UPPER TROUGH WILL EJECT ACROSS TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY2 PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW MARITIME BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS...SFC DEW POINTS AROUND 70F...TO RETURN ACROSS SERN TX/LA AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD. AS UPPER SPEED MAX TRANSLATES RAPIDLY DOWNSTREAM...VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR AND SFC CYCLOGENESIS SHOULD CONSOLIDATE OVER AR AFTER 00Z/24TH. IT APPEARS INCREASING WLY FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL TX WILL ALLOW BOUNDARY LAYER TO WARM/DEEPEN...ENHANCING INSTABILITY IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF MODIFIED DRY LINE/PACIFIC FRONT. WITH LLJ EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY...IT APPEARS WARM ADVECTION MAY GENERATE ISOLATED SUPERCELLS AHEAD OF THE MAIN FRONTAL ZONE. SECONDARY SEVERE DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR WITHIN EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET ALONG THE RED RIVER REGION OF NCNTRL TX. GIVEN THE RAPID EJECTION OF THIS TROUGH ACROSS A RECOVERING WARM SECTOR THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE AND TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MDT RISK OUTLOOK. ..DARROW.. 11/22/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Nov 22 18:02:07 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 22 Nov 2004 13:02:07 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200411221803.iAMI3tE31058@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 221801 SWODY2 SPC AC 221800 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1200 PM CST MON NOV 22 2004 VALID 231200Z - 241200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ENE CRP 25 SSE AUS 55 SSW TYR 20 WNW SHV 25 WNW MLU 35 NNE JAN 20 SSE MEI 40 S LUL 40 W BVE. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 S CRP 50 WNW HDO 35 NE JCT 30 ENE ABI 20 E SPS MLC 10 WNW UNO 20 W CGI 20 E PAH 15 SW CKV 25 ENE MSL 25 WSW BHM 10 N PNS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW DUG 60 WNW SAD 40 SSW INW 70 NE INW 40 NNW 4SL 30 SW DHT 65 ENE AMA 40 SW END 30 SE CNU 10 NW ALN 15 ESE DNV 20 NE MIE 35 WNW CMH UNI 25 SE 5I3 35 NNW MCN 15 NNE AQQ. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SERN AND E CENTRAL TX...MUCH OF LA INTO SRN MS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS AND WRN TN VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... POSSIBILITY OF A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE DEVELOPING FOR TUESDAY AS VIGOROUS MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW STILL OVER THE SWRN AZ/NRN BAJA REGION EJECTS ENEWD THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. MODELS SEEM A LITTLE SLOWER AS THEY USUALLY ARE WITH CLOSED UPPER SYSTEMS. TIMING NOW SEEMS TO MOVE THIS SYSTEM FROM S CENTRAL/SERN NM AROUND 23/12Z THROUGH NRN PARTS OF TX BETWEEN 23/21Z AND 24/03Z TO OVER THE OK/AR BORDER BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AT 24/12Z. MODELS ALSO SEEM TO BE A BIT DISORGANIZED IN MANAGING THE SPLIT FLOW TYPE REGIME AS THEY BRING ONE STRONG COLD FRONT SWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST...WHILE STILL HANDLING HOW THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH SWRN U.S. UPPER SYSTEM MAKES ITS WAY INTO TX. BEST ESTIMATION AT THIS TIME WOULD BE THAT STRONG CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR NEAR THE DFW METROPLEX BY 24/00Z WITH A STRONG SURFACE DRYLINE THAT WILL EXTEND SWD THRU CENTRAL TX THEN SWWD NEAR THE LRD AREA. THIS COMBINATION OF COLD FRONT MOVING SWD THROUGH WRN TX AND DRYLINE/SURFACE TROUGH FEATURE INTO ERN TX AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL RESULT IN STRONG FORCING OF HIGHLY SHEARED AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS LATE TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. ...SERN QUARTER OF TX THRU LA INTO CENTRAL MS... SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM THE DFW METROPLEX AT 24/00Z NEWD ACROSS SERN OK INTO NWRN AR BY 24/12Z. SURFACE TROF/DRYLINE SHOULD BE LOCATED SWD THRU CENTRAL AND S CENTRAL TX AND ADVANCE EWD ACROSS ERN TX LINING SWD FROM SWRN AR THRU WRN LA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. MODELS SEEM TO INDICATE WEAK INSTABILITY GRADIENT/WARM FRONTAL/RAIN-COOLED BOUNDARY THAT WILL EXTEND E-W ACROSS NRN LA INTO CENTRAL MS WHICH MAY BE A FOCUS FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. AIR MASS HAS DEW POINTS THAT ARE CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S AND THAT IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE THROUGH TOMORROW. MODELS GENERATE LIFTED INDICES OF -8 TO -10 OVER PARTS OF SERN TX...AND MUCAPE VALUES OF 2000 TO 2500 J/KG. LOW LEVEL JET OF 50-60 KT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY TUESDAY EVENING AS STRONG SRN BRANCH OF A 110-130 KT UPPER LEVEL JET EXTENDS FROM EXTREME S TX NEWD INTO SRN AL PLACING REGION IN FAVORABLE EXIT REGION ENHANCING UVVS. THIS LEADS TO DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 50-70 KT ACROSS THE SERN TX COASTAL AREAS INTO LA...AND THE ENVIRONMENT WOULD BE SET UP FOR SUPERCELLS/ISOLATED TORNADOES AHEAD OF DEVELOPING SQUALL LINE NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH/DRYLINE. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE THUS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW FORMS NEAR DFW SWD THROUGH AUS AND MOVE EWD ACROSS ERN TX AND WRN LA ACCOMPANIED BY DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL AND TORNADOES. SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED JUST AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE EWD IN VICINITY OF INSTABILITY GRADIENT IN HIGH SHEAR MODERATE CAPE ENVIRONMENT WHERE 0-1KM HELICITY IF FORECAST AROUND 200 M2/S2 AND LCL/LFC LEVELS ARE BELOW 2000 FT. THIS WOULD INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STRONG TORNADOES FROM EXTREME SERN TX ENEWD INTO SWRN PARTS OF MS TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. ..MCCARTHY.. 11/22/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 23 05:53:34 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 23 Nov 2004 00:53:34 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200411230555.iAN5tKE24574@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 230553 SWODY2 SPC AC 230552 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1152 PM CST MON NOV 22 2004 VALID 241200Z - 251200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW CGI 40 E MDH 30 NNW SDF 30 NNE LEX 25 WNW JKL 15 S LOZ 10 NW CSV 45 NNW HSV 35 SSW MKL 35 WSW DYR 25 SSW CGI. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW 7R4 30 N MCB 25 WNW MEI 30 E 0A8 30 NE CSG 35 ENE MGR 20 E AQQ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S LCH 25 SSW GWO 40 N GWO 50 WSW MEM 50 SW ARG 25 SE UNO 50 N POF 15 SW MIE 20 NNE CLE ...CONT... 15 ENE EFK 35 SSW GON ...CONT... 15 NNW DAB 10 SSW PIE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE TN AND PORTIONS OF THE OH VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST REGION... ...TN VALLEY AND GULF COAST STATES... SRN PLAINS UPPER TROUGH WILL FINALLY EJECT INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY EARLY IN THE DAY2 PERIOD. ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS/MID LEVEL COOLING...IT APPEARS A NARROW AXIS OF SOMEWHAT STEEPER LAPSE RATES WILL ADVECT ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. THIS SHOULD ENHANCE THERMAL PROFILES ACROSS AN OTHERWISE WEAK BACKGROUND ENVIRONMENT IN TERMS OF MOISTURE/INSTABILITY FROM WRN TN INTO CENTRAL KY. FARTHER SOUTH...POTENTIALLY MUCH WEAKER DEEP LAYER LAPSE RATES WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION WHERE HIGHER MOISTURE VALUES AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL COINCIDE. LATE DAY1 SQUALL LINE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY DAY2 PERIOD AS COLD FRONT ADVANCES EWD ACROSS THE MS VALLEY REGION. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD PROPAGATE EWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES INTO PROGRESSIVELY MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT. DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS SQUALL LINE...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED TORNADOES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. A SECONDARY MAXIMUM OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF MAIN SFC LOW WHERE STEEPER LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT STRONGER UPDRAFTS. ..DARROW.. 11/23/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 23 17:00:49 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 23 Nov 2004 12:00:49 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200411231702.iANH2YE21128@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 231659 SWODY2 SPC AC 231658 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1058 AM CST TUE NOV 23 2004 VALID 241200Z - 251200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW 7R4 25 ESE HEZ 45 SE GWO UOX 35 ESE JBR 15 SW CGI 45 SW BMG 30 SSE MIE 20 ESE MFD 20 NNE HLG 30 SE PKB 10 E 5I3 50 SSE TYS 15 SSW SPA 25 E GSO 10 NNE ORF ...CONT... 25 SE JAX 15 SW CTY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE DAB 15 SW FMY ...CONT... 25 S LCH 35 ESE MLU 40 NNW GLH 45 ENE LIT 50 N LIT 15 ENE HRO 40 E SGF 35 W MIE 45 SE DTW ...CONT... 55 N BML 25 SE AUG. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE OH/TN VALLEYS...CENTRAL GULF COAST...SRN APPALACHIANS...AND SRN ATLANTIC COAST... ...SYNOPSIS... ANOTHER ACTIVE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DAY IS LIKELY AS STRONG UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/GULF COAST REGIONS. LEADING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW CENTER WILL EJECT RAPIDLY NEWD ACROSS THE OH RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES DURING THE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY...WHILE ANOTHER STRONG SYSTEM DIGS AROUND BASE OF LONG WAVE TROUGH AND INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. THEREFORE...A BROAD REGION OF ENHANCED LOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL OVERSPREAD A LARGE PORTION OF THE ERN U.S. WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE. TWO PRIMARY AREAS OF SEVERE THREAT ARE LIKELY...ONE NEAR THE LOW CENTER AND INVOF STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SPREADING INTO THE OH AND TN RIVER VALLEYS...WITH ANOTHER NEARER THE DEEP MOISTURE AND ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION. ...OH INTO THE TN RIVER VALLEYS... WIDESPREAD CONVECTION MAY BE ONGOING WITHIN STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA REGIME OVER THE MID MS AND LOWER OH RIVER VALLEYS WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL RAPIDLY SPREAD NEWD WELL AHEAD OF PRIMARY SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG SURFACE COLD FRONT. MODELS SUGGEST SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL INCREASE INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH FORECAST WIND PROFILES INDICATING VERY STRONG LOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR. SHOULD HEATING/INSTABILITY DEVELOP WITH LEADING CONVECTION...SEVERE THREAT MAY INCREASE WITH IT AS IT SHIFTS NEWD INTO THE UPPER OH RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY. OTHERWISE... EXPECT SOME CLEARING TO OCCUR AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT IN WAKE OF EARLIER STORMS. ETA AND ETAKF SUGGEST TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S BY 21Z...WITH MLCAPES FROM 500-1000 J/KG. GIVEN DEGREE OF SHEAR AND PRESENCE OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...EXPECT LOW TOPPED SUPERCELLS AND SMALL LINES WILL DEVELOP INTO THE EARLY EVENING. CAPE AND SHEAR PARAMETERS SUGGEST ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WILL BE POSSIBLE. UNCERTAINTY REGARDING INSTABILITY APPEARS TOO GREAT TO UPGRADE TO MODERATE ATTM. ...CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION... ONGOING STRONG TO SEVERE SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM NRN/WRN AL INTO SERN LA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WITH EMBEDDED LEWPS AND POSSIBLE PRE-SQUALL LINE SUPERCELLS WITHIN WEAKLY CAPPED AND STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD STEADILY EWD ACROSS THE SRN APPALACHIANS INTO THE NERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE DAY. THOUGH LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN WEAK WITHIN DEEP MOIST PROFILES...SIGNIFICANT LOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR OVERSPREADING UPPER 60F/LOWER 70F SURFACE DEW POINTS SUGGEST TORNADO POTENTIAL /SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG/ WILL PERSIST ALONG AND SOUTH OF WARM FRONT. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND HIGHEST SEVERE PROBABILITIES WILL LIKELY REMAIN CONFINED TO AREAS NEARER THE COAST...HOWEVER ISOLATED TORNADOES/WIND DAMAGE MAY OCCUR NWD INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS. UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EXTENT/COVERAGE OF PRE-SQUALL CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY WARRANT MAINTAINING SLIGHT RISK FOR NOW...THOUGH UPGRADE MAY BE NEEDED IN LATER OUTLOOKS. ...SRN ATLANTIC COAST INTO THE DELMARVA... BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...VERY STRONG LOW AND DEEP LAYER WINDS WILL OVERSPREAD THIS REGION AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. GFS INDICATES 500 MB WINDS IN EXCESS OF 90 KT OVER ERN NC AND THE DELMARVA BY 25/12Z. GIVEN INFLUX OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE WITHIN INCREASING SSELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...AND RESULTANT DEVELOPMENT OF MARGINAL INSTABILITY...THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORM OF SMALL LINES AND SUPERCELLS MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE PERIOD ACROSS THIS REGION. WIND DAMAGE AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS SHOULD STORMS BE ABLE TO TAP MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. ..EVANS.. 11/23/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Nov 24 06:14:08 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 24 Nov 2004 01:14:08 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200411240615.iAO6FoE09414@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 240612 SWODY2 SPC AC 240611 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1211 AM CST WED NOV 24 2004 VALID 251200Z - 261200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNW PIE 40 NNW DAB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 E ILM 25 WSW WAL 30 WNW DOV 25 E HGR 10 WNW AOO BFD 55 NNE ROC. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...NEW ENGLAND... INTENSE 12HR 500MB HEIGHT FALLS...ON THE ORDER OF 180M...WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE NERN U.S. AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH DURING THE DAY2 PERIOD. RESULTANT LARGE SCALE ASCENT ALONG WITH DEEPENING SFC LOW SHOULD LIFT QUICKLY NEWD ACROSS UPSTATE NY INTO SERN QUEBEC...ALLOWING TRAILING COLD FRONT TO SWEEP ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NEW ENGLAND BY 06Z. IT APPEARS STRENGTH OF UPPER SYSTEM WILL ENHANCE DEEP CONVECTIVE THREAT AHEAD OF SFC BOUNDARY...BUT THIS ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP WITHIN MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT...AND LIKELY BE ELEVATED IN NATURE. FORECAST THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES DO NOT SUPPORT A SIGNIFICANT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND PROBABILITIES WILL REMAIN BELOW 5 PERCENT AT THIS TIME. ..DARROW.. 11/24/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Nov 24 17:06:01 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 24 Nov 2004 12:06:01 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200411241707.iAOH7fE19678@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 241704 SWODY2 SPC AC 241702 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1102 AM CST WED NOV 24 2004 VALID 251200Z - 261200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE ACY TTN 20 S POU 20 E BDL 10 ENE BOS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNW PIE 40 NNW DAB ...CONT... 10 E ILM 25 WSW WAL 30 WNW DOV 25 E HGR 10 WNW AOO BFD 55 NNE ROC. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SERN NEW ENGLAND... ...NORTHEAST... EXTENSIVE SQUALL LINE AHEAD OF STRONG LARGE SCALE TROUGH SHOULD BE ONGOING FROM CENTRAL FL NWD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. STRONG LARGE SCALE ASCENT ALONG WITH ENHANCED LOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL LIFT NNEWD ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH THE DAY...AS 90+ KT SWLY H5 JET SHIFTS ACROSS SERN NEW ENGLAND. IN RESPONSE TO THIS...SLY SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN QUITE STRONG AND ALLOW DEW POINTS TO INCREASE INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S AHEAD OF SQUALL LINE...BEFORE IT MOVES OFFSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON. PRIMARY NEGATIVES FOR SEVERE APPEAR TO BE MARGINAL CAPE AND STRONG WARMING JUST ABOVE SHALLOW BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH MAY KEEP UPDRAFTS ROOTED ABOVE THIS LEVEL. HOWEVER BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS WILL CONTINUING SUPPORTING LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO SHOULD STORMS PUSH THEIR DOWNDRAFTS THROUGH THIS SHALLOW STABLE LAYER. ...FL... FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS FL...SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS SWD INTO SRN FL THROUGH THE EARLY/MID AFTERNOON...GIVEN LIMITED CONVERGENCE AND DIMINISHING LARGE SCALE ASCENT. THUS...ANY RESIDUAL SEVERE THREAT EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THURSDAY MORNING. ..EVANS.. 11/24/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Nov 28 05:48:12 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 28 Nov 2004 00:48:12 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200411280550.iAS5oPE13418@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 280548 SWODY2 SPC AC 280547 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1147 PM CST SAT NOV 27 2004 VALID 291200Z - 301200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW P07 INK LBB CDS OKC TUL UNO PAH BNA GAD SEM 55 NNE MOB 30 SSE MOB ...CONT... 25 S CRP 30 S LRD. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH REGARD TO CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...INCLUDING SEVERE THREAT...DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. DISCREPANCIES ARISING IN MORE RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE ONLY ADDED TO THE UNCERTAINTY. A RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE STILL APPEARS LIKELY INTO WESTERN GULF COASTAL AREAS...AS SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE FOUR CORNERS STATES AND GRADUALLY EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED LOW LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. HOWEVER... STRENGTH/EVOLUTION OF UPSTREAM SYSTEM DIGGING TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST...AND ITS INFLUENCE ON FOUR CORNERS LOW...IS NOW MORE IN QUESTION. IT CURRENTLY APPEARS THAT LEAD SYSTEM MAY BEGIN ACCELERATING OUT THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES LATE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS SUGGEST THIS WILL OCCUR WITH TROUGH AXIS MAINTAINING POSITIVE TILT ORIENTATION...ON NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF FAIRLY STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO/ CARIBBEAN/SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND BAHAMAS. MODELS NOW APPEAR FASTER WITH SOUTHWARD SURGE OF COLD AIR THROUGH THE SOUTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO TEXAS...FURTHER COMPLICATING FORECAST...WITH ADDITIONAL UNCERTAINTY EXISTING WITH REGARD TO NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION OF REMNANTS OF SUBTROPICAL CLOSED NOW...NOW WEST OF BAJA. ...SOUTH CENTRAL STATES... THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING EARLY MONDAY ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/NORTHEAST TEXAS...WITH WEAK IMPULSE IN SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES PROVIDING PRIMARY FORCING. THIS CONVECTION APPEARS LIKELY TO DEVELOP RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD AND WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY...IN BAROCLINIC ZONE...ABOVE FRONTAL INVERSION...EXTENDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF STATES/TENNESSEE VALLEY. WARM SECTOR BOUNDARY LAYER WITH MID/UPPER 60S DEW POINTS WILL THEN SLOWLY BROADEN FROM PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA...POSSIBLY CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT. WHILE SHEAR PROFILES BENEATH STRONG WEST SOUTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER FLOW WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE CONVECTION...FORCING FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BENEATH BROADLY ANTICYCLONIC REGIME ON NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS UNCERTAIN. LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MID-LEVEL CAPPING MAY REMAIN INHIBITIVE OF DEEP CONVECTION UNTIL CLOSED LOW/TROUGH ACCELERATES OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS STATES. WITH THIS NOT LIKELY TO OCCUR UNTIL AFTER LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING MONDAY NIGHT...SEVERE PROBABILITIES APPEAR LOW. CONVECTION MAY INITIATE MONDAY NIGHT ABOVE FRONTAL INVERSION ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONT SURGING ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS...TOWARD TEXAS COASTAL AREAS. GIVEN FAVORABLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT LIKELY TO REMAIN ABOVE FRONTAL INVERSION IN ADVANCE OF UPPER TROUGH... MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY BECOME STEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A LIMITED HAIL THREAT IN STRONGER STORMS. OTHERWISE...INTENSIFYING SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET ALONG MID/UPPER TEXAS COASTAL AREAS INTO LOUISIANA MAY CONTRIBUTE TO PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS UPPER FORCING INCREASES LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. DESPITE LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING... BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY MOIST AND POTENTIALLY BUOYANT WITH INCREASING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES...TO SUPPORT AT LEAST LOW RISK FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ..KERR.. 11/28/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Nov 29 06:09:34 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 29 Nov 2004 01:09:34 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200411290611.iAT6BiE13346@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 290609 SWODY2 SPC AC 290608 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1208 AM CST MON NOV 29 2004 VALID 301200Z - 011200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW GLS HOU POE MLU UOX MSL BHM 35 WNW AUO DHN 35 SSE CEW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSE DRT ACT HRO TBN MTO DAY ZZV 10 NNW EKN 20 WNW RDU 10 NW AGS MGR 25 SSE TLH. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF STATES.... LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES BROAD CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO EVOLVE IN SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE WESTERLIES...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU/ROCKIES...MUCH AS FORECAST BY MODELS THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. WITH FAIRLY VIGOROUS UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE ALREADY DIGGING INTO THE BRITISH COLUMBIA/PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST...LEAD SYSTEM DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY TO REMAIN OVER THE FOUR CORNERS STATES LONG. STRENGTH AND RATE AT WHICH CLOSED/LOW TROUGH ACCELERATES EAST NORTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES HAS BEEN A CONSIDERABLE SOURCE OF UNCERTAINTY IN RECENT MODEL RUNS. UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE WILL BE SLOWED AND WEAKENED AS IT PROGRESSES INLAND THROUGH FAIRLY SHARP UPPER RIDGE...BUT LATEST ETA/GFS RUNS NOW ARE RATHER SIMILAR IN SUGGESTING DOWNSTREAM SYSTEM WILL LIFT INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...BEFORE UPSTREAM SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH...IN CONJUNCTION WITH A MORE PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE...FORCE EASTWARD ACCELERATION INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT. IN RESPONSE TO EVOLVING UPPER PATTERN...SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO FORM/DEEPEN ON NORTHERN END OF INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH...EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL GULF COASTAL AREAS INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...BEFORE MIGRATING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. DESPITE INLAND EVOLUTION OF SURFACE LOW...SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE WARM SECTOR DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY TO DEVELOP...PRIMARILY DUE TO CONTINUING INFLUENCE OF BROAD SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTING OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. ...GULF COAST STATES... AT LEAST A NARROW TONGUE OF SURFACE-BASED DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT...WHICH SHOULD BEGIN TO ADVANCE EAST OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WESTERN GULF COASTAL AREAS BY MID DAY TUESDAY. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN WEAK DUE TO POSITIVE TILT ORIENTATION OF UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH...BUT WEAK HEATING OF AIR MASS WITH 60F+ DEW POINTS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AT LEAST WEAK CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY. MODELS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN CONSISTENT IN SUGGESTING VERY STRONG /100+ KT AT 500 MB/ SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL JET STREAK WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH AXIS. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STRENGTHENING SHEAR AND FLOW FIELDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF STATES...INCLUDING WARM SECTOR...WHERE MEAN DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL SPEEDS MAY EXCEED 40 KT. THUS...DESPITE WEAK INSTABILITY...POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE ENHANCED BY STRONGER CONVECTION...WHICH WILL AID DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF HIGHER MOMENTUM TO THE SURFACE. NARROW PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE APPEARS POSSIBLE...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA/ SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND WESTERN ALABAMA. AS STRONGER FORCING DEVELOPS NORTHEAST OF GULF COASTAL AREAS LATER IN THE EVENING... CONVECTIVE LINE SHOULD WEAKEN. HOWEVER...MORE ISOLATED CELLS MAY EVENTUALLY DEVELOP IN CONFLUENT BAND NEAR LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS...SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO EASTERN GULF COASTAL AREAS OVERNIGHT. SHEAR PROFILES LIKELY WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH NEAR COASTAL AREAS...WHERE INLAND ADVECTION OF MOIST BUOYANT BOUNDARY LAYER WILL PERSIST...TO SUPPORT RISK FOR SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES OVERNIGHT. ..KERR.. 11/29/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Nov 29 17:31:23 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 29 Nov 2004 12:31:23 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200411291733.iATHXXE09113@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 291731 SWODY2 SPC AC 291730 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1130 AM CST MON NOV 29 2004 VALID 301200Z - 011200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NW LRD SAT 15 NW ACT 25 SE DUA 35 ESE FYV 30 N POF 30 SW BMG 40 NE FDY 35 SW ERI 25 ENE PSB 25 NNW BWI 40 ENE DAN 30 ENE AGS 10 WSW AQQ. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...GULF COAST... INTENSE UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT NEWD ACROSS THE MS VALLEY INTO THE OH VALLEY LATE IN THE PERIOD AS SPEED MAX WELL IN EXCESS OF 100KT EJECTS DOWNSTREAM. VERY STRONG HEIGHT FALLS WILL PRECEDE THIS FEATURE...ALTHOUGH ONLY PARTIALLY INFLUENCING THE NRN GULF COAST STATES WITH WEAKER ZONE OF ASCENT. IT APPEARS CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ALONG/BEHIND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM NRN MS...SWWD INTO SERN TX. THIS ACTIVITY MAY TEND TO BE POST-FRONTAL AND ELEVATED IN NATURE DUE TO THE INHIBITION AND WEAK LAPSE RATES ALONG THIS ZONE. DESPITE THE RETURN OF MODIFIED MARITIME AIRMASS INTO THIS REGION...MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL ULTIMATELY LIMIT THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT EVEN WITHIN THE STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. GUSTY WINDS MAY BE THE GREATEST THREAT WITH ANY STORMS THAT CAN ROOT JUST OFF THE SURFACE. ..DARROW.. 11/29/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 30 05:44:54 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 30 Nov 2004 00:44:54 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200411300547.iAU5kxE09608@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 300545 SWODY2 SPC AC 300544 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1144 PM CST MON NOV 29 2004 VALID 011200Z - 021200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE CHS FAY LYH MRB AVP 30 SSW POU 15 SE ISP. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH IS ALREADY BEGINNING TO LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES....AS UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLOWLY DIGS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST STATES. LATTER FEATURE IS WEAKENING... AND HAS BEEN SLOWED...AS IT PROGRESSES THROUGH BROADER SCALE RIDGE. HOWEVER...MORE PROGRESSIVE AND AMPLIFYING NORTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH/JET STREAK IS FORECAST BY MODELS TO DIG THROUGH SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF EASTERN CANADIAN POLAR LOW LATE TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...LEAD SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH WILL ACCELERATE MORE RAPIDLY OUT OF THE CENTRAL STATES THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY BE EARLY WEDNESDAY. RAPID MOTION OF SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC STATES/NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY EARLY THURSDAY. IN RESPONSE TO EVOLVING UPPER PATTERN...MODELS GENERALLY INDICATE DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL RAPIDLY MIGRATE OFF THE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST BY EARLY EVENING WEDNESDAY. TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR MUCH OF THE ATLANTIC COASTAL STATES DURING THE DAY...BUT WILL BECOME QUASISTATIONARY FROM THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...BENEATH STRONG WEST SOUTHWESTERLY MID/ UPPER FLOW REGIME. COOLING/DRYING OF LOWER-LEVELS IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT WILL HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO STABLY STRATIFIED ENVIRONMENT WHICH WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE NATION WEDNESDAY. THUS...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL APPEARS MINIMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. ...MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES... EVEN IN ADVANCE OF COLD FRONT...ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES...PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY APPEARS RELATIVELY LOW. LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES IN RETURN FLOW OF MODIFYING COOL/CONTINENTAL AIR MASS OFF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN ONLY VERY WEAK CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA/EXTREME EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. THIS WILL BE PRIMARILY DUE TO WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES/LARGE MID-LEVEL INHIBITION BENEATH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL JET STREAK PRIOR TO EARLY AFTERNOON FRONTAL PASSAGE. MID-LEVEL DESTABILIZATION ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER JET STREAK MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SCATTERED WEAK CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FROM PARTS OF NORTHERN VIRGINIA/EASTERN MARYLAND INTO NEW JERSEY EARLY IN THE DAY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE BASED ABOVE DEEP SURFACE-BASED INVERSION LAYER...BUT THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES MAY BE MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...PRIMARY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFFSHORE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE GULF STREAM...AS MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ..KERR.. 11/30/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Nov 30 17:15:43 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 30 Nov 2004 12:15:43 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200411301717.iAUHHkE13521@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 301712 SWODY2 SPC AC 301711 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1111 AM CST TUE NOV 30 2004 VALID 011200Z - 021200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE OAJ 35 NNW RWI 30 SE CHO 30 WNW BWI 30 E CXY 20 WNW TTN 20 NE ACY. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...MIDDLE ATLANTIC... STRONG UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT ACROSS THE OH VALLEY INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND BY LATE AFTERNOON ALLOWING SFC COLD FRONT TO ADVANCE RAPIDLY OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD. FORECAST PROFILES DO NOT LOOK REAL FAVORABLE FOR DEEP CONVECTION GIVEN THE MARGINAL LAPSE RATES AND WEAK INSTABILITY. DESPITE A NARROW AXIS OF MOISTURE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS INTO VA...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE MAY NOT SUPPORT SFC-BASED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. EVEN SO...INTENSE MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AND FOCUSED ZONE OF ASCENT MAY ALLOW A FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THE FIRST 06HR OF THE PERIOD. ..DARROW.. 11/30/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.