From calvinfs at goshen.edu Thu May 6 07:55:26 2004 From: calvinfs at goshen.edu (calvinfs at goshen.edu) Date: Thu, 06 May 2004 02:55:26 -0500 Subject: [Swody2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200405060754.i467sOL22148@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 060752 SWODY2 SPC AC 060750 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0250 AM CDT THU MAY 06 2004 VALID 071200Z - 081200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNE ORF 25 SE UNI 15 SSW DNV 35 SSW OTM 10 NE FNB 20 W LNK 15 W SUX 30 ENE OTG 40 NNE RST 15 NE MTC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW ERI ACY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 N HVR 50 WSW DIK 55 NNE RAP 40 WSW RAP 30 SE SHR 35 SSW COD 30 SSE TWF 30 N BAM 65 NNW LOL 35 SE LMT 55 N MFR 25 WNW SLE CLM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 S MRF 15 N ROW 15 ENE TAD 40 W IML 40 NNE ANW 30 SE AXN 45 S IMT 85 ENE OSC ...CONT... 20 NW ART 25 SSE PSM ...CONT... 20 E ORF 40 SSW IRK 10 SSE MHK 25 SE DDC 45 NNW CDS 50 WSW SJT 45 ESE P07. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MID MO RIVER VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND MID ATLANTIC... ...MID MO RIVER VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND MID ATLANTIC... PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT PARALLELS MODERATE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST INTO THE MID MO RIVER VALLEY. A SERIES OF FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL SHIFT EWD ATOP BROAD RIDGE AXIS AND ENHANCE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS FRONT THROUGH THE PERIOD. LEADING SYSTEM WILL AID IN PUSHING SURFACE FRONT SSEWD AS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC/CHESAPEAKE REGION. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE IN THE DAY/OVERNIGHT LIFTING SURFACE FRONT SLOWLY NWD OVER INTO NRN IL/IA AFTER DARK...AND INCREASE CONVECTION ALONG NOSE OF RESPONDING SSWLY LLJ. CONVECTION MAY BE ONGOING OVER THE SRN/ERN GREAT LAKES EARLY IN THE PERIOD WHICH SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE MORNING. CAPPING WILL AGAIN BE A HINDRANCE FOR SURFACE-BASED STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE SRN MID ATLANTIC/CHESAPEAKE REGIONS...AS AIR MASS BECOMES MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITHIN WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF SSEWD MOVING COLD FRONT. THIS MAY SUPPORT A THREAT OF A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG ERN PORTION OF THE FRONT DURING THE DAY. ANY CONVECTION WHICH CAN BREAK THE CAP FARTHER WEST ALONG THE FRONT WILL ALSO CARRY WITH IT A THREAT OF SEVERE. PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP LATER IN THE DAY/EVENING INTO IA/SRN WI/NRN IL ALONG NOSE OF INCREASING SWLY LLJ...WHICH MIGHT REMAIN ELEVATED NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT EWD INTO THE CENTRAL/SRN GREAT LAKES REGION OVERNIGHT IN THE FORM OF ONE OR MORE MCS/S. VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES...MODERATE MUCAPE AND SUFFICIENT CLOUD LAYER SHEAR FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS SUGGEST THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL. SHOULD DEVELOPMENT BECOME ROOTED NEAR THE SURFACE FRONT...BOW ECHO/ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WOULD ALSO INCREASE. ...CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS... HEATING AND DEEP MIXING ALONG DRY LINE WILL WEAKEN CAP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS LATE FRIDAY...AND SUGGESTS ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM AND SHIFT SLOWLY EWD INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING. SHEAR REMAINS WEAK AND WILL LIMIT ORGANIZATION OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES DUE TO STRONG HEATING AND RELATIVELY COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES SUGGEST LOW PROBABILITIES OF SEVERE HAIL/WIND ARE WARRANTED. ...NRN INTERMOUNTAIN INTO THE NRN ROCKIES/ADJACENT PLAINS... UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT TOWARDS THE PAC NW FRIDAY...WITH A SERIES OF WEAKER SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EJECTING NEWD ACROSS THIS REGION ENHANCING THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS. IN ADDITION...SURFACE TO H7 COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SPREAD EWD INTO THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND MAY FOCUS MOIST CONVECTION INTO ERN ORE/SERN WA AND WRN ID. APPEARS LAPSE RATES WILL BECOME QUITE STEEP UNDER PLUME OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE OVERSPREADING THE REGION ...WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY DEVELOPING. THIS MIGHT SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE... THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ..EVANS.. 05/06/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From calvinfs at goshen.edu Thu May 6 17:19:54 2004 From: calvinfs at goshen.edu (calvinfs at goshen.edu) Date: Thu, 06 May 2004 12:19:54 -0500 Subject: [Swody2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200405061720.i46HKLI06808@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 061716 SWODY2 SPC AC 061714 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1214 PM CDT THU MAY 06 2004 VALID 071200Z - 081200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE ECG 45 SE LYH 45 ESE BMG 20 E UIN 25 W FNB 10 SSW OLU 20 S YKN 15 NNE MKT 20 E GRB 15 NE MTC ...CONT... 15 SW ERI 15 SSE ACY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 N HVR 30 W Y22 55 ESE REJ 45 WSW RAP 35 S SHR 35 SSW COD 30 SSE TWF 10 NE BAM 35 N RNO 35 SSE MHS 45 NNW MFR 25 WNW SLE CLM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE ECG 45 E DAN 25 ENE SDF 40 NW ALN 20 NNE MKC 35 SE DDC 50 E AMA 10 S BGS 45 ESE P07 ...CONT... 55 WNW MRF 45 E 4CR 25 SSW LHX 40 W IML 9V9 40 WSW STC 45 E ESC 110 ENE OSC ...CONT... 35 NW SYR 15 E GON. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY...OH VALLEY...GREAT LAKES AND MID ATLANTIC AREA... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF THE COUNTRY AND A LARGE UPPER RIDGE DOMINATING MUCH OF THE SRN TWO THIRDS. THE FRONT CURRENTLY FROM THE GREAT LAKES SWWD THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS WILL MOVE SEWD INTO THE OH VALLEY AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER S CNTRL CANADA MOVES EWD AND INTO SE CANADA BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BECOME STATIONARY FRIDAY FROM THE MID ATLANTIC WWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY...CNTRL PLAINS...AND NRN ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION. ...ERN PORTIONS OF CNTRL PLAINS THROUGH OH VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES... LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S WILL PERSIST UNDERNEATH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN WARM SECTOR S OF THE FRONT FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS EWD INTO THE OH VALLEY. AS SURFACE HEATING COMMENCES...THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2500 J/KG. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS COULD DEVELOP DURING AFTERNOON PEAK HEATING WITHIN ZONE OF FRONTAL CONVERGENCE. PRIMARY THREAT WOULD BE ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER...PRESENCE OF CAP WILL LIKELY LIMIT SURFACE BASED ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT. A MUCH BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE IN ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION N OF THE FRONT. A FEW ELEVATED STORMS MAY BE ONGOING DURING THE MORNING WITH A MARGINAL THREAT FOR HAIL. OTHER STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP N OF THE BOUNDARY OVER PARTS OF THE MID MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE ELEVATED WITH PRIMARY THREAT BEING LARGE HAIL. STORMS SHOULD SPREAD EWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET VEERS. ...MID ATLANTIC AREA... A FEW STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF SEWD MOVING FRONT AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES DURING THE AFTERNOON. WEAKER CAP IN THIS AREA SUGGESTS SURFACE BASED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING AFTERNOON PEAK HEATING. THOUGH NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...DEEP LAYER NWLY FLOW AND SHEAR PROFILES MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION...ESPECIALLY GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES AND EXPECTED MODERATE INSTABILITY. STORMS MAY ORGANIZE INTO LINE SEGMENTS AS THEY MOVE SEWD WITH THREAT FOR PRIMARILY DAMAGING WIND AND SOME HAIL THROUGH MID EVENING. ...SRN HIGH PLAINS... STRONG SURFACE HEATING WILL PROMOTE DEEP MIXING...INVERTED-V BOUNDARY LAYERS AND DESTABILIZATION OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. AS CAP WEAKENS STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND SPREAD EWD THROUGH ERN NM...W TX...OK PANHANDLE AND SW KS. HIGH BASED STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ...NRN ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION... WIDELY SCATTERED HIGH BASED STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN W AND NRN ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGIONS AS WELL AS IN VICINITY OF STALLED FRONT ACROSS MT. OWING TO LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND DEEP INVERTED-V BOUNDARY LAYERS WILL SUPPORT THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THROUGH MID EVENING. ..DIAL.. 05/06/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri May 7 07:27:41 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 07 May 2004 02:27:41 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200405070728.i477S3412804@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 070725 SWODY2 SPC AC 070724 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0224 AM CDT FRI MAY 07 2004 VALID 081200Z - 091200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ENE ROC 10 W IPT 25 NE LBE 35 SW TOL 45 E MLI 35 WNW LWD 10 NNE CNK 30 NE GAG 60 E LBB 20 NNW MAF 15 NNW INK 20 WNW HOB 40 SSE EHA 40 N GCK 20 WNW EAR 30 NE ANW 30 W PHP 25 NW DIK 60 ENE MOT 35 ENE JMS 20 S BRD 20 SE IMT 40 WSW PLN 15 SE APN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE DUG TCS 45 S LVS 10 S GLD MHN RAP RIW BOI 35 N OTH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW MSS RUT 10 E BOS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE CHS GSP 5I3 DAY UIN TOP CSM SJT 45 ESE P07. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ON SATURDAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE PLAINS...UPPER MIDWEST...AND GREAT LAKES STATES... BAND OF STRONG WESTERLY MID LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES ON SATURDAY...WITH SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PROGRESSING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. CONTINUED SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...MAINTAINING A RELATIVELY MOIST LOW LEVEL AIRMASS IN PLACE FROM SD/NEB INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS AXIS WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ON DAY2. ...MN/SD/NEB/IA/WI... MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR OVER EASTERN NEB/SD BY AFTERNOON...WITH WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD FROM LOW INTO SOUTHERN WI. STRONG DAYTIME HEATING IS LIKELY TO OCCUR ALONG THIS AXIS...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OF 2500-3500 J/KG. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW ONLY A WEAK CAP AND STRONG LOW LEVEL TURNING OF WINDS WITH HEIGHT. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT INITIAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR NEAR SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN NEB/SD...AND NORTHWESTWARD FROM LOW INTO CENTRAL SD/SOUTHWESTERN ND. STORMS SHOULD SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF IA/MN/WI DURING THE EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR LIKELY WITH THIS ACTIVITY. ALSO...STRENGTH OF FORECAST LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR SUGGESTS A RISK OF A FEW TORNADOES IN STRONGER CELLS. THIS AREA MAY REQUIRE UPGRADE TO MODERATE RISK IN SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS. ...LOWER MI INTO WESTERN NY/PA... SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL EXTEND ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MI INTO WESTERN NY/PA. AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL EXIST ALONG AND SOUTH OF FRONT...ALONG WITH SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG WESTERLY MID LEVEL WINDS WILL PROMOTE A RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN STRONGER CELLS. ...NEB/KS/OK/TX... SURFACE DRYLINE IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM WEST TX INTO CENTRAL NEB ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AND VERY STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL DEVELOP...ALONG WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2500 J/KG. WEAK BUT SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...AND WEAK CAP MAY RESULT IN A FEW CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS FROM WEST TX INTO SOUTHERN NEB. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE RATHER WEAK...SUGGESTING ACTIVITY WOULD BE POORLY ORGANIZED AND STRONG DIURNAL. HOWEVER...FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT SUGGESTS A RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ..HART.. 05/07/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri May 7 17:27:45 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 07 May 2004 12:27:45 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200405071728.i47HS6X26228@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 071726 SWODY2 SPC AC 071724 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1224 PM CDT FRI MAY 07 2004 VALID 081200Z - 091200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE ROC 20 SE ELM 15 S PSB 45 ESE FWA 20 SE BRL 50 WNW LWD 15 S CNK 25 S DDC 20 NNE AMA 40 NE HOB 35 WNW HOB 20 NE ROW 20 SSW CAO 40 SE GLD 20 WNW EAR 15 SSW 9V9 40 SW REJ 30 SE GDV 65 WNW MOT 20 NNW DVL 35 NW HIB 35 NNW RHI 50 SSE ESC 25 NNE MBS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW MSS RUT 10 E BOS ...CONT... 30 SSW CHS 55 WNW AND 5I3 DAY 15 ESE SPI 25 ESE STJ 20 ENE GAG 40 ESE LBB 45 NW DRT ...CONT... 35 E DUG TCS 45 S LVS IML 50 WNW MHN 40 WSW RAP RIW BOI 30 S ONP. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS THROUGH THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY...OH VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES AREA.... ...SYNOPSIS... THE CURRENT UPPER PATTERN WILL PERSIST WITH BELT OF STRONGER WESTERLIES OVER THE NRN THIRD OF THE NATION. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE STRONGER ZONAL FLOW WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE NRN TIER STATES. WEAK FLOW AND HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REMAINING TWO THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY. EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY WHERE A WEAK UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EWD. WRN PORTIONS OF THE FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM THE NERN U.S. WWD THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS WILL BEGIN RETREATING NWD AS A WARM FRONT. THE ERN PORTIONS OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL SETTLE SWD INTO THE CAROLINAS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EWD OUT OF THE NRN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE DAKOTAS SATURDAY NIGHT. THE DRYLINE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SRN AND CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. ...UPPER MS VALLEY THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY... STORMS MAY BE ONGOING EARLY SATURDAY N OF THE E-W SURFACE FRONT WITHIN ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION. THREAT FOR HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND MAY EXIST WITH THIS ACTIVITY. THE WARM SECTOR S OF THE BOUNDARY WILL DESTABILIZE DURING THE DAY AS SURFACE HEATING COMMENCES WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 60S SUPPORTING MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG OVER THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY INTO WRN PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER THE MID OR UPPER MS VALLEY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET ENHANCES WARM ADVECTION AND LIFT ALONG AND N OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. ACTIVITY WILL SUBSEQUENTLY SPREAD EWD INTO THE OH VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THE MAIN THREATS. ...NRN PLAINS... A COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH ERN MT AND THE DAKOTAS DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AS IT INTERCEPTS MOIST AXIS OVER THE WRN DAKOTAS. SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH INITIAL ACTIVITY...BUT STORMS MAY HAVE A TENDENCY TO EVOLVE INTO LINES OR CLUSTERS WITH TIME AS THEY CONTINUE EWD INTO THE DAKOTAS. DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. ...CNTRL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS... ISOLATED HIGH BASED STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF THE DRYLINE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITHIN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY DEEPLY MIXED INVERTED-V BOUNDARY LAYERS. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ...CAROLINAS... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SWD AND SETTLE INTO THE CAROLINAS SATURDAY. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES. MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING PEAK HEATING. THOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE WEAK...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES COULD SUPPORT PULSE SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THE MAIN THREATS. ..DIAL.. 05/07/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat May 8 07:32:45 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 08 May 2004 02:32:45 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200405080733.i487X4q30308@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 080730 SWODY2 SPC AC 080728 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0228 AM CDT SAT MAY 08 2004 VALID 091200Z - 101200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM GLD 25 W IML 50 NNW IML MHE AXN DLH CMX APN 40 NE MTC TOL CGX OTM FNB CNK GLD. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM UCA 45 WSW ALB MSV AOO CLE ROC UCA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ART GFL BID ...CONT... 25 NNE ECG SOP DHN 60 N PNS GLH LIT POF BWG 40 SE LUK FWA PIA P35 MHK CDS BGS DRT ...CONT... 30 ESE DUG SOW PGA SLC SUN 75 NNW WMC LMT RDM PDT MSO LWT 4BQ Y22 BIS 65 NNW DVL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF WESTERN NY/PA... ...NEB TO WESTERN NY/PA... RELATIVELY FAST WESTERLY MID LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES ON SUNDAY...WITH A STRONG UPPER TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA. PRIMARY SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL EXTEND FROM NEB INTO MN/WI...THEN EASTWARD ACROSS LOWER MI INTO NY/PA. THIS AXIS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE THE REGION HAVING A RISK OF ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS. ETA/GFS SOLUTIONS SUGGEST MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS WILL TRAVERSE THIS AXIS...ALTHOUGH TIMING AND LOCATION OF SYSTEMS IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. 00Z ETA GUIDANCE SHOWS ONE CLUSTER OVER LOWER MI AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...WHICH MAY SPREAD EASTWARD INTO NY/PA DURING THE AFTERNOON. AREA OF HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS FROM CENTRAL NEB INTO SOUTHERN WI. AIRMASS HERE WILL BECOME VERY UNSTABLE BY AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 2500-3500 J/KG. STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AND CONVERGENCE IN VICINITY OF SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS SUGGEST A RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN STRONGER CELLS. STORMS MAY PERSIST OVERNIGHT AND SPREAD AS FAR EAST AS LOWER MI. OTHER ISOLATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP SOUTHWARD ALONG THE DRYLINE ACROSS WESTERN KS THROUGH EASTERN NM. HOWEVER...WEAK FLOW ALOFT SHOULD PRECLUDE ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS IN THIS REGION. ..HART.. 05/08/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat May 8 17:36:45 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 08 May 2004 12:36:45 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200405081737.i48Hb2q25434@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 081735 SWODY2 SPC AC 081733 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1233 PM CDT SAT MAY 08 2004 VALID 091200Z - 101200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW GCK 15 E GLD LBF 30 N ABR TVF 35 ESE INL CMX 70 E MQT 40 NNW PLN HTL RFD 35 WNW OTM 25 WNW CNK 35 S DDC 35 WSW GCK. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE EWN 30 W RDU DHN 60 N PNS GLH LIT POF BWG 40 SE LUK FWA 30 NW PIA 25 NNW IRK 15 SSE CNK CDS BGS 40 NW DRT ...CONT... 30 ESE DUG SOW GCN 40 SSW RKS 30 S IDA SUN S80 MSO LWT 35 SW 4BQ 30 NNE RAP 15 WSW BIS 55 NE MOT ...CONT... 25 NNW SYR 35 NW ALB 10 SSW GON. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 S CRP AUS 20 E MWL ADM 45 SSE MLC 40 SW TXK 40 ESE LFK 20 SE BPT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNE ORF 35 N SHD 15 NE PIT FKL 40 NNE BFD ITH 20 SSE MSV 20 SW ISP. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS WRN GREAT LAKES/UPPER MIDWEST SWWD INTO WRN KS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTAL/ERN PA EWD INTO NJ AND THE DELMARVA REGION... ...SYNOPSIS... LONG WAVE PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE WITH RELATIVELY STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW PERSISTING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES....AND WEAK FLOW ELSEWHERE. A STRONG UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO ROTATE RAPIDLY EWD ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA AND INTO WESTERN ONTARIO. A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM SD EWD ACROSS THE SRN GREAT LAKES/PA AREA SUN MORNING...BUT WILL LIFT NWD DURING THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT SHIFTS EWD FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY...IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE CANADIAN UPPER TROUGH. ...PA EWD INTO THE DELMARVA AREA... STORMS THAT DEVELOP TODAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MO VALLEY REGION SHOULD TRACK EWD OVERNIGHT ALONG BAROCLINIC ZONE IN NRN OH/SRN GREAT LAKES AREA AS AN MCS. MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BE LOCATED NEAR WRN NY/NWRN PA AT 09/12Z...BUT STORMS MAY BE LOCATED SLIGHTLY FURTHER SWD CLOSER TO BOUNDARY LOCATION. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE A WIND THREAT SUNDAY MORNING AS CORFIDI VECTORS SHOW THE COMPLEX MOVING EWD AT 60 KT. HOWEVER...THE GREATER THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE DURING THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE STORMS MOVE SEWD INTO THE DELMARVA/NJ AREA. SURFACE BOUNDARY...CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WILL LIFT NEWD AND IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND ACROSS THE DELMARVA REGION BY AFTERNOON. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...MID/UPPER 60 DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN MLCAPE VALUES NEAR 3000 J/KG. UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING DRY AIR BETWEEN 500-700 MB ARE SUGGESTIVE OF A LINEAR SYSTEM BEING MAINTAINED ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY. WIND DAMAGE WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT...THOUGH THE STRONG INSTABILITY SHOULD ALSO SUPPORT SOME SEVERE HAIL. ...WRN GREAT LAKES/UPPER MS VALLEY SWWD INTO WRN KS... ALTHOUGH STRONGEST FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH CANADIAN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE UNITED STATES BORDER...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN MLCAPES FROM 2500 TO 3500 J/KG IN THE WARM SECTOR. STORMS MAY BE ONGOING ALONG THE COLD FRONT ACROSS PORTIONS OF ND/NWRN MN IN THE MORNING ...BUT MORE INTENSE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS SHOULD INITIALLY DEVELOP IN MN WHERE CONVERGENCE WILL BE THE STRONGEST NEAR THE WARM/COLD FRONT INTERSECTION. ALSO...THIS AREA WILL EXPERIENCE THE BEST COMBINATION OF STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR/INSTABILITY...WITH SUPERCELLS LIKELY. HOWEVER...LCL HEIGHTS WILL BE RELATIVELY HIGH...SO HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. THE VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MLCAPES NEAR 3000 J/KG INDICATES THAT SOME OF THE HAIL COULD BE QUITE LARGE. STORMS SHOULD SHIFT NEWD INTO WI OVER OVERNIGHT AS THE STRONG FORCING LIFTS INTO THAT AREA. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP SWWD ALONG THE DRYLINE ACROSS NEB/KS AS SURFACE CONVERGENCE INCREASES DUE TO HEATING AND MIXING. ALTHOUGH THE WINDS FIELDS WILL BE WEAKER THAN FURTHER NORTH... VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT...MODERATE INSTABILITY AND RELATIVELY LARGE TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR DAMAGING DOWNDRAFTS. WITHOUT UPPER LEVEL FORCING...THESE STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN BY MID EVENING. ..IMY.. 05/08/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun May 9 08:22:24 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 09 May 2004 03:22:24 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200405090822.i498Meq05215@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 090723 SWODY2 SPC AC 090721 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0221 AM CDT SUN MAY 09 2004 VALID 101200Z - 111200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NW 3B1 10 S MWN ALB FKL FWA SPI SZL P28 LBL LAA AKO CYS DGW 81V 45 NNE RAP 10 N MHN OLU LSE MQT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE MOB LUL ESF 25 S LCH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM WAL DAN AND RMG BNA CGI 30 NNW OKC 50 W ABI SAT 40 NE CRP ...CONT... 40 E DUG 65 NNW SVC SAF ALS ASE VEL ENV LOL MHS LMT BOI MQM 3HT 65 NNW GGW ...CONT... 65 NNW DVL MBG 10 WNW 9V9 YKN SPW EAU 10 NE IWD. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ACROSS THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION INTO PARTS OF NY/VT/NH... ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN OVER THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES ON MONDAY AS STRONG UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS WILL RESULT IN A TRANSITION TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE PLAINS...AS WELL AS UPPER RIDGING OVER MUCH OF THE MIDWEST AND UPPER MS VALLEY. A LARGE AREA WILL EXPERIENCE A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON DAY2...BUT A GENERAL LACK OF FOCUS FOR STORMS WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE CONCENTRATION OF REPORTS. ...IA/NEB/KS/MO... MAIN SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM WESTERN KS INTO SOUTHERN IA BY AFTERNOON. AIRMASS SOUTH OF THE FRONT WILL BE VERY UNSTABLE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 60S AND MLCAPE VALUES OVER 2500 J/KG. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD ACROSS KS. A COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING AND A RATHER WEAK CAP SHOULD ALLOW FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. MID LEVEL WINDS AND RESULTANT DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE RATHER WEAK IN THIS REGION. HOWEVER...DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SUGGEST A RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN STRONGER CELLS. ...EASTERN WY AND WESTERN SD/NEB... SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE ACROSS WY/SD BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS QUICKLY DRAWING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION. SCATTERED HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN WY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND SPREAD EASTWARD TOWARD THE BLACK HILLS DURING THE EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL APPEAR POSSIBLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS AREA. ...WI/IL INTO NY/VT/NH... MAIN SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL EXTEND FROM IA ACROSS LOWER MI INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. AIRMASS SOUTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE WARM AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. MODEL GUIDANCE IS QUITE VARIED ACROSS THIS REGION IN REGARDS TO TIMING OF UVVS AND PRECIP EVENTS. HOWEVER...FAVORABLE INSTABILITY/SHEAR COMBINATIONS WILL PROMOTE A RISK OF AFTERNOON/EVENING STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREAT. ..HART.. 05/09/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun May 9 17:28:24 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 09 May 2004 12:28:24 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200405091728.i49HSbq22172@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 091726 SWODY2 SPC AC 091724 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1224 PM CDT SUN MAY 09 2004 VALID 101200Z - 111200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 N EFK LEB 10 W GON 20 ESE SBY 45 N RIC 20 SSW ZZV 35 SSW FDY 20 WNW LAF 15 NNW SPI 40 N SGF 30 N BVO 15 WSW LBL 20 NW LAA 25 N DEN 35 SSE CPR 25 SW GCC 10 SSW 4BQ 50 NE 4BQ 40 SW Y22 PHP 25 N BUB OMA 25 N DSM 35 NW APN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSW WAL 25 NE DAN 15 E SPA 40 ENE ABY 25 SE TLH ...CONT... ELP 40 E 4CR TAD 30 SSW 4FC 30 ENE CAG 50 WNW RKS ENV LOL MHS LMT BKE 50 S MSO 35 NW HLN 55 ENE CTB ...CONT... 55 NNW MOT BIS 9V9 YKN 45 S SPW LSE 10 E MQT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS EWD ACROSS MIDDLE MS VALLEY EWD INTO PA/NY AND WRN PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND... ...SYNOPSIS... ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN OVER THE NRN PART OF THE COUNTRY AS AN UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE PACIFIC NW/NRN ROCKIES. ALTHOUGH THE UPPER FLOW WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION FROM WLY TO SWLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE PLAIN STATES...THE STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN RESTRICTED TO THE NRN/WRN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY. A COLD FRONT WILL STRETCH FROM THE GREAT LAKES SEWD INTO KS AND THEN NWWD BACK INTO CO. ...WRN HIGH PLAINS... COLD FRONT WILL BE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE AREA AND ELY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TO 20 TO 30 KT AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER WY. UPPER 50 AND LOWER 60 DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO ADVECT NWWD INTO THE AREA AND COMBINED WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...STRONG INSTABILITY SHOULD BE PRESENT BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL WINDS WILL BE WLY AT ONLY 25-30 KT...STRONG VEERING IN THE LOWER 3 KM WILL RESULT IN 50 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THE STRENGTH OF THE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS...WITH HAIL LARGE THE MAIN THREAT. HOWEVER...A RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR WOULD ALSO FAVOR A FEW TORNADOES. STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET MAY ALSO RESULT IN STORMS EVOLVING INTO AN MCS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A THREAT FOR WIND DAMAGE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEB AND KS. ...CENTRAL KS NEWD INTO ERN GREAT LAKES AREA... MODELS SUGGEST THAT ONGOING CONVECTION MAY BE LOCATED ACROSS PORTIONS OF KS/MO IN THE MORNING. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A CONTINUED FLOW OF GULF MOISTURE...AIR MASS SHOULD BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE BY AFTERNOON. FRONTAL CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO LIFT CAP WITH WIDESPREAD CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT. ALTHOUGH THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY INDICATES A THREAT FOR HAIL AND A FEW DAMAGING DOWNDRAFTS. THE LACK OF ANY UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND WEAK SHEAR INDICATE STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER DARK. ...NY AND WRN PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND... ALTHOUGH COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT...PAST COUPLE OF MODELS RUNS ARE CONSISTENT IN LIFTING THE WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA BY MONDAY MORNING WITH A SURFACE TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 5OS/LOWER IN THE OHIO VALLEY SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND RESULT IN MLCAPE VALUES FROM 1000 TO 2000 J/KG. UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW INDICATES A THUNDERSTORM LINE MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH WITH WIND DAMAGE THE MAIN THREAT. ...PA/NRN DELMARVA REGION... SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND MOVE EWD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE WIND FIELDS WILL BE WEAKER ALOFT THAN ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...THE INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BE STRONGER AND FAVORABLE FOR STORMS WITH WIND/HAIL DAMAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. ..IMY.. 05/09/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon May 10 07:24:16 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 10 May 2004 02:24:16 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200405100724.i4A7OSq22782@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 100721 SWODY2 SPC AC 100720 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0220 AM CDT MON MAY 10 2004 VALID 111200Z - 121200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E DLH 20 ESE FRM 40 NNW OMA 45 S HLC 30 WSW CDS 15 N LBB 35 ENE CVS 35 ESE AKO 35 ESE CYS 35 SW DGW 35 N DGW 30 SE RAP 45 SE BIS 75 NE DVL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E SLO 25 E MEM 10 WNW GLH 35 NE LFK 15 S SAT 25 NW JCT 25 WNW MWL 30 ESE END 30 SSE CNK 20 WSW OTM 20 E PIA 30 E SLO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE DOV LYH 30 N AND ATL 10 SE PNS ...CONT... 90 SSW P07 20 S CNM 35 SSE RTN 25 ENE 4BL 20 SSW SGU 20 WNW ELY BNO 15 NNE YKM 35 N 4OM ...CONT... 40 NW CTB 25 SSE 3HT 45 SW 4BQ 30 SE Y22 60 N DVL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS STATES ON TUESDAY... ...NORTHERN PLAINS... LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE ROCKIES ON TUESDAY...WITH BAND OF STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS EXTENDING FROM CO INTO MN. MAIN SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL ALSO LIE IN THIS AXIS...PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. AIRMASS ALONG AND SOUTH OF FRONT WILL BE MOIST AND VERY UNSTABLE WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OVER 2500 J/KG. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON FROM NORTHWEST NEB INTO EASTERN ND AND NORTHWEST MN. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS THROUGH THE EVENING AS SECONDARY COLD FRONT SURGES INTO AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THIS REGION SHOW SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. STORMS WILL LIKELY ORGANIZE INTO ONE OR MORE MCSS AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF NEB/SD/MN OVERNIGHT. ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON TUESDAY...HELPING TO MAINTAIN AT LEAST LOW 60S DEWPOINTS OVER THE EASTERN TX PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN KS. FULL SUNSHINE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ALONG THE DRYLINE WITH AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OF 2500+ J/KG. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG DRYLINE FROM THE TX PANHANDLE NORTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN KS INTO SOUTHWEST NEB. COMBINATION OF HIGH INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL. ..HART.. 05/10/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon May 10 09:16:04 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 10 May 2004 04:16:04 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200405100916.i4A9GAq08728@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 100912 SWODY2 SPC AC 100910 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0410 AM CDT MON MAY 10 2004 VALID 111200Z - 121200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E DLH 20 ESE FRM 40 NNW OMA 45 S HLC 30 WSW CDS 15 N LBB 35 ENE CVS 35 ESE AKO 35 ESE CYS 35 SW DGW 35 N DGW 30 SE RAP 45 SE BIS 75 NE DVL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E PIA 20 WSW OTM 30 SSE CNK 30 ESE END 25 WNW MWL 25 NW JCT 15 S SAT 35 NE LFK 10 WNW GLH 25 E MEM 30 E SLO 20 E PIA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW CTB 25 SSE 3HT 45 SW 4BQ 30 SE Y22 60 N DVL ...CONT... 30 SSE DOV LYH 30 N AND ATL 10 SE PNS ...CONT... 90 SSW P07 20 S CNM 35 SSE RTN 25 ENE 4BL 20 SSW SGU 20 WNW ELY BNO 15 NNE YKM 35 N 4OM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS STATES ON TUESDAY... CORRECTED FOR GRAPHICS ERROR ...NORTHERN PLAINS... LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE ROCKIES ON TUESDAY...WITH BAND OF STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS EXTENDING FROM CO INTO MN. MAIN SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL ALSO LIE IN THIS AXIS...PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. AIRMASS ALONG AND SOUTH OF FRONT WILL BE MOIST AND VERY UNSTABLE WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OVER 2500 J/KG. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON FROM NORTHWEST NEB INTO EASTERN ND AND NORTHWEST MN. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS THROUGH THE EVENING AS SECONDARY COLD FRONT SURGES INTO AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THIS REGION SHOW SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. STORMS WILL LIKELY ORGANIZE INTO ONE OR MORE MCSS AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF NEB/SD/MN OVERNIGHT. ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON TUESDAY...HELPING TO MAINTAIN AT LEAST LOW 60S DEWPOINTS OVER THE EASTERN TX PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN KS. FULL SUNSHINE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ALONG THE DRYLINE WITH AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OF 2500+ J/KG. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG DRYLINE FROM THE TX PANHANDLE NORTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN KS INTO SOUTHWEST NEB. COMBINATION OF HIGH INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL. ..HART.. 05/10/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon May 10 17:19:50 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 10 May 2004 12:19:50 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200405101720.i4AHK0q09068@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 101718 SWODY2 SPC AC 101716 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1216 PM CDT MON MAY 10 2004 VALID 111200Z - 121200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW BIS 20 S DVL TVF 35 S INL 30 SSW ELO 40 SE DLH 35 N RST OLU 40 ENE HLC GAG CDS 40 ESE LBB 35 W LBB 35 ENE CVS 45 WNW GLD 50 ESE CYS 45 WNW BFF 65 SSE 81V 20 W Y22 40 NW BIS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE DOV LYH 30 N AND ATL 10 SE PNS ...CONT... 85 S MRF 30 WSW HOB 35 N TCC 35 W TAD CEZ 20 SSE GCN 40 SSW LAS 65 NNW BIH 15 SSE LOL 50 N BAM 45 SW MQM 35 ENE WEY 30 NW SHR 35 NE MLS 60 NNW ISN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE DBQ ALO 30 WNW DSM MHK 25 ESE ICT TUL 25 ESE FYV 55 ESE HRO ARG CGI PIA 20 ESE DBQ. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER TROUGH IN THE WEST WILL AMPLIFY AND SHIFT EWD INTO THE ROCKIES ...RESULTING IN A SURFACE LOW TO MOVE FROM WY/MT EWD ACROSS ND. THIS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS...WHILE A STATIONARY FRONT...CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY REGION...SHOULD BE LOCATED ACROSS THE NRN STATES AS A WARM FRONT. ...NRN PLAINS... WIDESPREAD PCPN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE ONGOING IN ND DURING THE MORNING...IN ZONE OF STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION. THE LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL LIFT NEWD INTO SRN CANADA DURING THE DAY...BUT THE SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. THE AIRMASS ALONG AND SOUTH OF FRONT WILL BE MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE...DUE TO STEEP LAPSE RATES AND AS LOWER/MID 60 DEWPOINTS IN THE SRN PLAINS ADVECT NWD INTO THE AREA. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONT FROM ND SWWD INTO WRN NEB AS A THERMAL TROUGH ALOFT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE WRN U.S. UPPER TROUGH...APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. STORMS MAY ORGANIZE INTO ONE OR MORE MCS/S AND TRACK NEWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEB/SD/MN OVERNIGHT. ...WRN KS SWD INTO THE TX PANHANDLE... STRONG SLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION... MAINTAINING AT LEAST UPPER 50/LOWER 60S DEWPOINTS. LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN STEEP AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP TO HEAT/DESTABILIZE THE AIR MASS...WITH MLCAPES FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. MODELS INDICATE A WEAK 500 MB TROUGH MOVING INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THIS SHOULD INCREASE THE CONVERGENCE SUFFICIENTLY FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE DRYLINE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW INVERTED-V PROFILES FROM THE SURFACE TO 700 MB...WHICH WOULD SUGGEST STRONG DOWNDRAFTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS. HOWEVER...THE STEEP LAPSE RATES WOULD ALSO SUPPORT HAIL. ..IMY.. 05/10/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue May 11 07:09:49 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 11 May 2004 02:09:49 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200405110709.i4B79vq04337@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 110707 SWODY2 SPC AC 110705 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0205 AM CDT TUE MAY 11 2004 VALID 121200Z - 131200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E MQT VOK SZL JLN 50 NW MLC OKC GAG DDC SLN 10 SSE LNK MSP 15 N ELO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE MSS 20 SE RUT 30 E ISP ...CONT... WAL DAN CAE 70 WNW SAV MGR 30 WNW PFN ...CONT... 20 NNE GLS TYR SPS LBL TAD CNY ENV BNO 65 ENE RDM ALW BTM LVM SHR PHP MHN EAR OFK HON GFK 65 W RRT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...KS/OK... LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES ON WEDNESDAY WITH RELATIVELY STRONG SOUTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...MAIN SURFACE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM NORTHERN MN ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEB TO A LOW IN SOUTH CENTRAL KS. SURFACE DRYLINE WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD FROM LOW ACROSS WESTERN OK INTO NORTHWEST TX. AIRMASS SOUTH OF FRONT AND EAST OF DRYLINE WILL BE VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S AND MLCAPE VALUES OVER 3000 J/KG. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ONLY A WEAK CAP...ALLOWING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT OVER KS...AND PERHAPS ISOLATED CELLS ALONG THE DRYLINE IN OK. LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE A WEAKNESS FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER. HOWEVER...DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR INDICATE A RISK OF SLOW MOVING SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. THIS AREA MAY REQUIRE AN UPGRADE TO MODERATE RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS. ...MO/IA/MN/WI... BAND OF RELATIVELY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL WINDS WILL LIE ATOP SURFACE COLD FRONT OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. POCKETS OF STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG/. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP FROM NORTHWEST MO INTO NORTHERN MN ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THIS REGION...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE. ..HART.. 05/11/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue May 11 17:41:53 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 11 May 2004 12:41:53 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200405111741.i4BHfxq15109@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 111740 SWODY2 SPC AC 111738 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1238 PM CDT TUE MAY 11 2004 VALID 121200Z - 131200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 ENE MQT ESC OSH UIN JEF SGF UMN OKC FSI LTS GAG DDC GCK LAA LHX 30 NE COS 30 SE CYS 20 S SNY 55 N RSL CNK BIE OMA 40 WSW SPW FSD ATY 50 E FAR INL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE MSS RUT ISP ...CONT... WAL RIC DAN GSO CAE 75 W SAV MGR PFN ...CONT... GLS LFK TYR DUA 45 N MWL BWD SJT CDS 30 E LBL TAD CNY DPG OWY BNO PDT ALW BTM 30 NE RAP MHN LBF EAR GRI OLU OFK MHE HON GFK 25 WNW RRT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS UPPER MS VALLEY TO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... IN MID-UPPER LEVELS...MEAN TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER WRN CONUS BUT BEGIN TO DEAMPLIFY SOMEWHAT LATE IN PERIOD. EMBEDDED CYCLONE -- NOW EVIDENT ON MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER WRN MT -- IS FCST TO FILL SLOWLY AS IT DRIFTS ENEWD ACROSS MT THROUGH DAY-2. SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW LOCATED SW OF THAT LOW OVER NV IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW CYCLONICALLY CURVED PATH TOWARD NRN PLAINS BY 13/00Z...THEN DEVELOP ITS OWN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AND TAKE OVER AS PRIMARY MID/UPPER LOW AS IT MOVES INTO MANITOBA/ONT BORDER REGION LATE IN PERIOD. A FEW SHORTWAVE PERTURBATIONS MAY EJECT NEWD AMIDST ZONE OF SWLY FLOW...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN ANY MODEL PROGS OF SUCH SMALL SCALE FEATURES THIS FAR IN ADVANCE. IN ANY EVENT...BROAD BELT OF ENHANCED MID-UPPER FLOW -- E.G. 65-75 KT AT 500 MB AT 12/18Z -- WILL CONTRIBUTE TO FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR SEVERE OVER LARGE SWATH OF CENTRAL CONUS. AT SFC...CYCLONE NOW OVER WRN SD WILL WEAKEN SOMEWHAT TODAY WITH CYCLOGENESIS FARTHER S OVER CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. HOWEVER...NRN LOW SHOULD STRENGTHEN CONSIDERABLY AGAIN AROUND BEGINNING OF PERIOD -- OVER WRN/NRN MN...AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES. MEANWHILE...TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD OVER CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY. FRONT SHOULD REACH CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...NRN IL/MO...NWRN OK AND NERN NM BY END OF PERIOD. FRONT AND DRYLINE SHOULD INTERSECT AT SRN CYCLONE -- EXPECTED INVOF SRN KS/CO BORDER AT 13/00Z. DRYLINE WILL EXTEND SEWD ACROSS WRN OK THEN SSWWD THROUGH W TX. ...UPPER MIDWEST TO CENTRAL PLAINS... POTENTIAL FOR EARLY MORNING MCS EXISTS NEAR FRONT -- PER DAY-1 OUTLOOK. ISOLATED SEVERE WIND/HAIL POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH MORNING HOURS. ASSOCIATED CLOUD/PRECIP FIELD MAY ALTER EFFECTIVE FRONTAL POSITION AND/OR SPEED OF DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION...SO SUCH UNCERTAINTIES COMPEL SOME BROAD-BRUSHING OF SEVERE PROBABILITIES THIS REGION. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSTMS IN ONE OR MORE LINES ARE POSSIBLE DURING AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG/AHEAD OF SFC BAROCLINIC ZONE. ISALLOBARIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH MN CYCLOGENESIS WILL ENHANCE LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS ADJOINING WARM SECTOR...OVER UPPER MIDWEST. WIND DAMAGE APPEARS TO BE MAIN THREAT BASED ON NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES AND BACKING WITH HEIGHT PROGGED THROUGH MID-UPPER TROPOSPHERE. HOWEVER...IT IS TOO SOON TO RULE OUT POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES GIVEN BACKED FLOW E-NE OF DEEPENING SFC LOW AND AT LEAST MARGINALLY FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMICS. LOW-MID 60S SFC DEW POINTS AND DIABATIC HEATING WILL YIELD 500-1500 J/KG MLCAPE IN NARROW CORRIDOR JUST AHEAD OF FRONT. SEVERE PROBABILITIES SHOULD DIMINISH WITH SWD EXTENT ALONG COLD FRONT THROUGH IA/SERN NEB/NWRN MO/NERN KS AREA AS CONVERGENCE WEAKENS...THEN INCREASE AGAIN WITH PROXIMITY TO S-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS CYCLONE. ...CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS... CONVECTION SHOULD BREAK CAP DURING AFTERNOON INVOF SFC LOW...AND PERHAPS IN FORM OF ISOLATED SUPERCELLS SWD ALONG DRYLINE THROUGH PORTIONS WRN OK AND NW TX. DRYLINE RELATED SEVERE PROBABILITIES BECOME MORE CONDITIONAL AWAY FROM SFC LOW BECAUSE OF CAPPING AND WEAKENING LOW-MIDLEVEL FLOW WITH SWD EXTENT. WITH PRIMARY LARGE SCALE FORCING REMOVED FROM THIS AREA...LOW LEVEL FLOW IS PROGGED TO BE WEAK - GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS IN BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS WILL MITIGATE HODOGRAPH SIZE...THOUGH SOME STRONGER WINDS ARE LIKELY CLOSE TO SFC LOW. 30-40 KT MIDLEVEL FLOW FROM RED RIVER NWD...AND NEARLY 50 KT OVER SW KS...SUGGESTS SUPERCELL POTENTIAL. 8-9 DEG C/KM MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 50S/LOW 60S F SFC DEW POINTS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO 1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE. SEPARATE AREA OF SEVERE DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE MID-LATE AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS ERN CO...W THRU NE OF SFC LOW AND BEHIND SFC COLD FRONT. ACTIVITY IN THIS REGION MAY BEGIN AS DISCRETE SUPERCELLS THEN SHIFT EWD INTO PORTIONS WRN KS LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING AS TSTM CLUSTER. ALTHOUGH POST-FRONTAL CAA WILL REDUCE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY RELATIVE TO AIR MASS E OF DRYLINE. HOWEVER... INSOLATION AND MOIST ADVECTION AMIDST NELY/ELY FLOW WILL YIELD 500-1000 MLCAPE BY MIDAFTERNOON. BACKED POST-FRONTAL FLOW WILL ENHANCE BOTH LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND LIFT...BY MEANS OF UPSLOPE COMPONENT. ..EDWARDS.. 05/11/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed May 12 07:29:38 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 12 May 2004 02:29:38 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200405120729.i4C7Thq17578@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 120727 SWODY2 SPC AC 120725 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0225 AM CDT WED MAY 12 2004 VALID 131200Z - 141200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM END FLV IRK UIN 10 N STL HOT 45 SE DAL BWD SJT 50 ENE BGS CDS 45 W CSM END. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ESE P07 55 E LBB 50 ESE AMA TCC ALS RKS IDA MQM 45 S LVM GCC LIC LAA 10 SE DDC CNK SUX 10 SSW RWF HIB 60 ENE ELO ...CONT... 50 N BML 10 S PSM ...CONT... ORF CAE VLD 35 WNW CTY. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MS VALLEY... ...NORTH TX/OK/KS/MO/WRN AR... LARGE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL ROTATE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON THURSDAY. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE LOCATION OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES DUE TO UNKNOWN EFFECTS OF DAY1 CONVECTION. HOWEVER...PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL SAG SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHWEST OK WITH WARM FRONT EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD FROM LOW INTO NORTHWEST MO. AIRMASS ALONG AND SOUTH OF FRONT WILL BE VERY WARM/MOIST WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND STRONG DAYTIME HEATING. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM SOUTHWEST MO INTO NORTHWEST TX SHOW EXTREME INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 4500-5000 J/KG AND LITTLE CAP. SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS AXIS BY MID AFTERNOON AND SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN/EASTERN OK AND NORTH TX. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG WITH 500MB WIND SPEEDS GENERALLY BELOW 35 KNOTS. HOWEVER...DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND POTENTIAL FOR OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM DAY1 CONVECTION SUPPORT A RISK OF SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. ACTIVITY MAY ORGANIZE INTO A LINEAR MCS DURING THE EVENING AS IT SPREADS INTO WESTERN AR AND NORTHEAST TX. ...WEST CENTRAL TX... SOUTHWARD EXTENT OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE DRYLINE IS UNCERTAIN DUE TO WEAK FORCING AND MID LEVEL CAP. HOWEVER...STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AND A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL EXIST ALONG THE DRYLINE FROM DRT TO SPS. IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP...THEY WOULD LIKELY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE. ..HART.. 05/12/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed May 12 17:24:40 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 12 May 2004 12:24:40 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200405121724.i4CHOhq08736@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 121720 SWODY2 SPC AC 121718 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1218 PM CDT WED MAY 12 2004 VALID 131200Z - 141200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW P28 35 ESE SLN 25 ENE MKC 20 WNW COU 10 WNW TBN 45 N TXK 40 SW CLL 40 NNW HDO 65 SW SJT 50 ENE BGS 25 ESE CDS 20 E GAG 35 WNW P28. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 N BML 10 S PSM ...CONT... 30 NNE SSI 35 WNW CTY ...CONT... 40 SSW P07 35 NE BGS 30 N CDS TCC ALS RKS IDA MQM 45 S LVM GCC LIC LAA 10 SE DDC CNK 35 NE OMA 15 WNW RST 40 WNW RHI 25 NNW MQT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS FROM S CENTRAL KS INTO CENTRAL TX.... ...SYNOPSIS... LONG WAVE TROUGH EXTENDING N-S OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION WILL MOVE EWD DURING THE DY2 PERIOD. COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO CENTRAL KS AND THE OK PANHANDLE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...THEN REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL PARTS OF KS INTO THE TX/OK PANHANDLES PRIOR TO THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. MODELS ADVANCE SWRN HALF OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY RAPIDLY SEWD LATE THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON EXTENDING FROM SERN KS INTO NWRN TX BY 14/00Z...THEN FROM NWRN LOWER MI SWWD INTO THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY BY 14/12Z. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME LARGE HAIL WILL MOVE THROUGH PARTS OF KS...OK AND NRN AND CENTRAL TX DURING THE PERIOD. ...SRN PLAINS FROM SRN KS INTO CENTRAL TX... QUESTION FOR THIS AREA IS THE AMOUNT AND MODE OF CONVECTION AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. QUASISTATIONARY FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM SERN IA AND NERN KS TO A LOW OVER NWRN OK...THEN CONTINUE AS A COLD FRONT SWWD AND WWD INTO THE SRN ROCKIES. LOW LEVEL JET OF 45-55 KT IS FORECAST EARLY ON FROM EXTREME S TX NWD INTO S CENTRAL KS ENHANCING LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL ZONE. ALSO...A WEAK LOW LEVEL JET OF 30 KT IS DEPICTED FROM THE SRN PLATEAU INTO SWRN OK ADVANCING WELL MIXED AIR AND ENHANCING CONFLUENCE JUST AHEAD OF THE DRY LINE OVER THE ERN TX PANHANDLE SWWD INTO W TX. MID LEVEL JET OF 50-60 KT IS EXPECTED TO BE FROM SERN AZ NEWD OVER NWRN KS AND NERN NE ENHANCING DEEP LAYER SHEAR NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. IN ADDITION...LOW LEVEL JET WILL ALSO PROVIDE POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH CAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG. GIVEN CONDITIONS PRIOR TO THE START OF THE OUTLOOK...WOULD ANTICIPATE AN OVER NIGHT MCS OVER KS PLACING CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS PARTS OF S CENTRAL KS INTO W CENTRAL AND CENTRAL OK. SOME DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL COULD BE EXPECTED EARLY IN THE PERIOD IN AREA WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS PRESENT ON THE NRN EDGE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY NEAR THE BOUNDARY. COLD FRONT WILL THEN ADVANCE SEWD BY AFTERNOON AS MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PLAINS DEVELOPING AN INTENSE LINE OF ACTIVITY FROM NERN OK INTO NWRN TX. GIVEN THAT DYNAMICS PULL NEWD BEHIND THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON...THERE MAY BE A FEW ISOLATED TORNADOES INITIALLY...BUT THE MAIN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME LARGE HAIL. ...IL INTO SERN WI/SWRN LOWER MI... COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ADVANCE EWD INTO NWRN LOWER MI SWWD INTO NERN MO. MODELS INDICATE DAYTIME HEATING WILL DESTABILIZE AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH CAPE BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500 J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAK AS MAIN ACTIVITY DEVELOPS OVER THE SRN PLAINS. BUT...MARGINAL DYNAMICS AND INSTABILITY INDICATES THAT SOME HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS COULD ACCOMPANY ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ...S AND SERN TX... MORNING ETA MODEL INDICATES THAT CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY POSSIBLY FROM AFTERNOON PLAINS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE SEWD INTO SERN TX OVERNIGHT ON THURSDAY. MODELS INDICATE THAT AIR MASS WILL BE FAIRLY UNSTABLE WITH CAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG. SFC COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY COULD RESULT IN DAMAGING WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH LEADING LINE. ..MCCARTHY.. 05/12/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu May 13 07:24:03 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 13 May 2004 02:24:03 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200405130724.i4D7O4q17837@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 130721 SWODY2 SPC AC 130719 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0219 AM CDT THU MAY 13 2004 VALID 141200Z - 151200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM COD PHP MHN AKO GUC VEL 50 WSW BPI JAC COD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ACY LYH MGM 20 E GPT ...CONT... DRT ABI TUL COU MKE 50 WNW ANJ. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...MI/OH... BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES ON FRIDAY...WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING EASTWARD ACROSS THE MS VALLEY. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RESULTANT INSTABILITY WILL BE MUCH LESS ON DAY2 THAN PREVIOUS DAYS WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000 J/KG OR LESS FROM LOWER MI INTO EASTERN TX. RELATIVELY STRONG WIND FIELDS MAY ALLOW ISOLATED STRONG STORMS TO PRODUCE GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS OVER PARTS OF LOWER MI AND NORTHERN OH ON FRIDAY...BUT NO ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED. ...SOUTH TX... ONE AREA WHERE STRONG INSTABILITY WILL PERSIST ON FRIDAY WILL BE OVER SOUTH TX...WHERE VERY WARM/MOIST SURFACE CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN MLCAPE VALUES OVER 3000 J/KG. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ALONG FRONT OVER CENTRAL TX AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...WITH ACTIVITY SPREADING SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTH TX DURING THE AFTERNOON. LOW/MID LEVEL WINDS WILL BE RATHER WEAK...SUGGESTING SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION IS UNLIKELY. HOWEVER...HOT SURFACE TEMPS AND DEGREE OF INSTABILITY COULD POSE A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS IN A FEW CELLS. THIS AREA WILL BE MONITORED IN LATER OUTLOOKS FOR POSSIBLE UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK IF VERTICAL SHEAR IS SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. ..HART.. 05/13/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat May 15 07:47:05 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 15 May 2004 02:47:05 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200405150746.i4F7kwn05187@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 150743 SWODY2 SPC AC 150741 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0241 AM CDT SAT MAY 15 2004 VALID 161200Z - 171200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSW BFF 40 WNW CDR 40 SSE AXN 35 W IWD 30 W IMT 20 N DBQ 15 NE DSM 20 WNW MHK GAG PVW 40 ENE TCC 15 WNW EHA 40 WNW GLD 45 SSW BFF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NE HVR 50 E LWT 45 SSE GDV 40 NE Y22 35 SE TVF 45 E INL ...CONT... 20 NE ANJ 30 E JVL 10 SE OTM 45 SSW OJC 45 S LTS 55 SSE MAF 40 ESE P07 ...CONT... 25 S DMN 40 W ONM 25 ENE LVS 30 SW LIC 40 SW LAR 45 S BPI 35 W OWY 40 S BNO 55 WSW PDT 30 NE BLI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E ORF 15 N SOP 45 N AGS 30 SE MCN AYS 20 SSW SSI ...CONT... 45 ENE PSX 15 WNW SHV 35 WSW MEM 50 NE PAH 55 NW HTS 45 WSW MRB 25 NE NEL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL PLNS AND UPR MS VLY... ...SYNOPSIS... LOW AMPLITUDE WSWLY FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE LWR 48 ON SUNDAY...S AND E OF SLOWLY EVOLVING BLOCK ALONG THE BC CST. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN THIS JET WILL CROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE RCKYS AND PLNS DURING THE PERIOD. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT OF THESE FEATURES AS FAR AS SEVERE WEATHER IS CONCERNED IS NOW LOCATED OVER THE E PACIFIC NEAR 40N/135W. LEAD PORTION OF THIS IMPULSE SHOULD MOVE FROM WY INTO THE ERN DAKS DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...WHILE LINGERING/MORE WRN PART SHEARS E ALONG MUCH THE SAME TRACK LATER SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY. IN RESPONSE TO STRENGTHENING WLY FLOW ALOFT...EXPECT INCREASED LEE TROUGHING E OF THE CNTRL RCKYS DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HRS. A SURFACE WAVE SHOULD EMERGE OVER WRN NEB EARLY SUNDAY AND MOVE ENE INTO THE UPR MS VLY BY EARLY MONDAY...AHEAD OF LEAD UPPER DISTURBANCE. LEE TROUGHING LIKELY WILL PERSIST...HOWEVER...OVER NE CO/WRN KS LATER SUNDAY AS REMAINING PART OF UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES REGION. ...NEB/WRN IA/SRN SD INTO UPR MS VLY AND THE SRN HI PLNS... A W/E ORIENTED FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD STRENGTHEN OVER THE NRN NEB/NW IA AREA DURING THE PERIOD AS A RESULT OF /1/ SWD MOTION OF BAROCLINIC ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH NRN STREAM JET IN CANADA AND /2/ NWD REDEVELOPMENT OF FRONT NOW STALLING IN THE LWR MS VLY. THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR PERSISTENT WARM ADVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD AS LEE TROUGH DEEPENS E OF THE RCKYS. SCATTERED AREAS OF ELEVATED WARM ADVECTION THUNDER MAY BE IN PROGRESS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD N OF FRONT OVER SD. MEAGER MOISTURE SUPPLY SHOULD LIMIT THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL WITH THIS ACTIVITY. LATER IN THE DAY...COMBINATION OF SURFACE HEATING...FRONTAL UPLIFT AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH PASSING SHORTWAVE IMPULSES SHOULD LEAD TO SURFACE-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS CNTRL/ERN NEB AND PERHAPS SRN SD. OTHER MORE WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS MAY FORM ALONG ERN BORDER OF DEEPLY MIXED ENVIRONMENT EXTENDING S ALONG LEE TROUGH FROM WRN NEB TO THE SRN HI PLNS. STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...40 KT DEEP WLY SHEAR AND INCREASING MOISTURE INFLOW /850 MB DEWPOINTS INCREASING TO AOA 12C/ WILL LIKELY SUPPORT SUSTAINED/ORGANIZED STORMS...INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL/HIGH WIND. THIS THREAT SHOULD BE GREATEST IN CNTRL/ERN NEB...WHERE FORCING AND DESTABILIZATION WILL BE MAXIMIZED. DEPENDING UPON RAPIDITY OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RETURN...A LIMITED THREAT WILL ALSO EXIST FOR COUPLE TORNADOES. UPSCALE DEVELOPMENT INTO ONE OR TWO MCS WILL PROBABLY OCCUR SUNDAY EVENING AS CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION AND FAIRLY LARGE TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS FAVOR STRONG COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT/FORWARD PROPAGATION E/NEWD INTO SRN MN AND WI. ..CORFIDI.. 05/15/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat May 15 17:36:58 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 15 May 2004 12:36:58 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200405151736.i4FHaoo06947@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 151734 SWODY2 SPC AC 151732 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1232 PM CDT SAT MAY 15 2004 VALID 161200Z - 171200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNW PVW 45 NE CVS 45 ENE TCC 20 NW EHA 35 ENE LAA 45 ESE AKO 20 SW SNY BFF 35 WSW CDR 40 N CDR 40 NE ATY 35 W IWD 40 N RHI 25 E RHI 15 ESE CWA 20 SSE VOK 40 NW DBQ 30 NE DSM 15 NNW MHK GAG 40 ESE AMA 40 NNW PVW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW ANJ 35 W TVC 15 W MKE 30 E P35 25 WNW FSI 45 W SJT 35 SE P07 ...CONT... 30 S DMN 15 NE TCS 35 SSE SAF 10 S RTN 25 NW LHX 25 SE DEN 40 SW LAR 45 S BPI 35 W OWY 95 SSE BNO 20 WSW BNO 20 NE BLI ...CONT... 35 NNW HVR 60 NNE LWT 45 WNW MLS 45 S GDV 45 NNE Y22 10 N JMS 30 SE TVF 30 ESE INL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE ECG 25 SSE AND 35 NNE MCN 25 SE MCN 10 NNW AYS 20 NE JAX ...CONT... 35 E PSX 35 SSW SHV 40 E LIT 25 SSW PAH SDF 10 SW PKB 25 E HGR NEL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS...UPPER MIDWEST...CNTRL PLAINS AND SRN PLAINS... ...NRN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST... A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO A FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...A SFC LOW WILL DEEPEN AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL DEVELOP EAST OF THE SFC LOW ACROSS NEB...ERN SD AND SRN MN. IN ADDITION...LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY AS THE WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...PROVIDING SUFFICIENT LIFT FOR WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE REGION. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS TO HOW MUCH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE REGION. SFC DEWPOINTS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE 40S F IN THE NRN PLAINS. THE 60 F ISODROSOTHERM IS LOCATED ACROSS E TX AND IT SEEMS UNLIKELY THAT THIS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REACH ERN NEB BY SUNDAY. IF SFC DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE 50S F...SFC HEATING AND THE STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WOULD STILL YIELD MODERATE INSTABILITY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINED WITH THE STRONG UPWARD ASCENT WILL LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT FOR STRONG UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR ERN NEB FOR 21Z SUNDAY SHOW SOME LOW-LEVEL VEERING AND STRONG SPEED SHEAR ACROSS THIS AREA SUGGESTING A THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS WILL EXIST. LARGE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY WITH SUPERCELLS CONSIDERING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE GREATER THAN 7.0 C/KM ACROSS SERN SD...ERN NEB AND WRN IA. A FEW TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE NORTHWEST OF THE AXIS OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET IF ENOUGH MOISTURE RETURNS TO REGION AND SFC WINDS BACK SOME AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW. STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN A WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY AS SUPERCELLS BECOME OUTFLOW DOMINANT DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. AN UPGRADE TO MODERATE RISK MAY BECOME NECESSARY IN LATER OUTLOOKS ESPECIALLY AS THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE RETURN BECOMES MORE CLEAR. MODEL CONSENSUS DEVELOPS THE MOST WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS SRN SD AND NEB WITH MORE ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING SWD ALONG A SFC TROUGH ACROSS WRN KS INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. THIS CONVECTION ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS WILL HAVE A NARROW WINDOW FOR SEVERE AND SHOULD WEAKEN SLOWLY AFTER DARK. BUT THE STORMS FARTHER NORTH SHOULD ORGANIZE INTO AN MCS AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS THE BAND OF ASCENT SPREADS EWD ACROSS SRN MN...WI AND IA. A WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THIS STORM COMPLEX. ..BROYLES.. 05/15/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun May 16 08:04:12 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 16 May 2004 03:04:12 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200405160804.i4G846o23074@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 160802 SWODY2 SPC AC 160800 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0300 AM CDT SUN MAY 16 2004 VALID 171200Z - 181200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NNE MTC 35 SSW CGX 15 W UIN EMP 40 NE GAG 30 SW LAA 20 S DEN 25 SW DGW 55 WNW CDR 25 N IML 25 ESE GRI 20 NW EAU 55 NNW ANJ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 N ISN 15 WSW OLF 35 NNW MLS 35 ENE 4BQ 30 WSW VTN 25 SW YKN 20 NNW OTG 50 ESE BRD 140 NE CMX ...CONT... 30 WSW MSS 45 E UCA 15 E PSF 15 S BOS ...CONT... 30 NE ORF 15 N RDU 20 N CAE AYS 45 S GNV 40 SSW AGR 20 S PBI ...CONT... 20 SE BPT 15 SSW ELD 20 WSW DYR 15 SSW SDF 20 S ZZV 20 SSW FKL 20 NE ERI 45 ESE MTC 40 SSE SBN 50 S UIN 50 NW BVO 25 NNW LTS 25 SSE BGS 45 ESE P07 ...CONT... 70 SE ELP 50 N HOB 35 E TCC 10 NNW RTN 40 ENE ASE 40 ESE RKS 35 NE DPG 50 NE WMC 25 WNW RNO 30 S RBL 45 ESE CEC 25 SSW ONP. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL HI PLNS E ACROSS PARTS OF KS AND MO INTO THE UPR GRT LKS... ...SYNOPSIS... LOW AMPLITUDE WSWLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE U.S. ON MONDAY...DOWNSTREAM FROM PERSISTENT BLOCK ALONG THE NRN BC CST. UPPER LOW NOW DEVELOPING OVER THE E PACIFIC S OF THE BLOCK SHOULD PROGRESS E INTO NRN CA/SW ORE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...RESULTING IN MODEST SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE CNTRL RCKYS/HI PLNS. FARTHER E...IMPULSE NOW OVER THE NRN GRT BASIN SHOULD REACH THE ERN DAKOTAS BY EARLY MONDAY...AND CONTINUE ENE TO THE UPR GRT LKS BY LATE IN THE DAY. CURRENT SATELLITE AND MODEL DATA BOTH SUGGEST THAT ADDITIONAL WEAKER DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE CNTRL/NRN PLNS IN WAKE OF GRT LKS SYSTEM...BUT THE TIMING OF THESE FEATURES IS UNCERTAIN ATTM. AT LWR LEVELS...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH GRT LKS SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE SE ACROSS THE UPR MS VLY/UPR GRT LKS...AND REACH SRN MI/NRN IL BY 12Z TUESDAY. TRAILING WRN PART OF SAME BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY SETTLE SLOWLY S ACROSS KS ON MONDAY...BEFORE BECOMING STATIONARY OVER THE SRN PART OF THE STATE AND ERN CO EARLY TUESDAY. ...MID/UPR MS VLY TO UPR GRT LKS... A FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS LEFT OVER FROM DAY ONE WILL PROBABLY BE PRESENT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AHEAD OF COLD FRONT OVER THE UPR MS VLY. THIS ACTIVITY MAY CONTAIN SMALL SCALE BOWS GIVEN 40+ KT DEEP WSWLY SHEAR AND SUSTAINED LARGE SCALE ASCENT. BUT MEAGER SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL. SURFACE HEATING AND CONTINUED LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD RESULT IN RENEWED STORM DEVELOPMENT LATER IN THE DAY FARTHER S ACROSS PARTS OF ERN IA AND CNTRL/SRN WI. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE VERY STEEP /AROUND 6.5 DEG C PER KM/. BUT GIVEN INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INFLOW /850 DEWPOINTS AOA 12C/ AND CONTINUING PRESENCE OF MODERATE TO STRONG DEEP WSWLY SHEAR...LOW LEVEL DESTABILIZATION SHOULD PROVE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ADDITIONAL FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS DEVELOPMENT. ATTENDANT EMBEDDED BOWS/ROTATING STORMS WILL POSE A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND AND PERHAPS A COUPLE BRIEF TORNADOES EWD ACROSS FAR NRN IL INTO PARTS OF NRN AND CNTRL MI. ...LWR MO VLY W INTO THE CNTRL HI PLNS... THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO LIKELY DEVELOP LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON/ EVENING IN AN EAST-TO-WEST FASHION FROM SRN IA/NRN MO WWD INTO CENTRAL KS...WHERE SURFACE HEATING AND FRONTAL UPLIFT SHOULD PROVE SUFFICIENT TO BREAK REGIONAL CAP. MORE WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS AND SOMEWHAT WEAKER ACTIVITY MAY ALSO FORM IN POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW NWD/WWD INTO ERN CO/WY. COMBINATION OF VERY STEEP /NEARLY DRY ADIABATIC/ MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE /MEAN DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S/ WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY IN KS/NRN MO AND SRN IA WHERE 100 MB MLCAPE MAY REACH 2000 J/KG. COUPLED WITH 35-40 KT DEEP WSWLY SHEAR...SETUP SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR A SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL/HIGH WIND AND PERHAPS A COUPLE TORNADOES. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY LINGER INTO THE NIGHT ALONG AND N OF FRONT AS WEAK IMPULSES ALOFT AND STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET MAINTAIN LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE CNTRL PLNS REGION. ..CORFIDI.. 05/16/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun May 16 17:37:46 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 16 May 2004 12:37:46 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200405161737.i4GHbZo03929@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 161735 SWODY2 SPC AC 161733 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1233 PM CDT SUN MAY 16 2004 VALID 171200Z - 181200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WNW CLE 40 N LAF 50 NW COU 30 NE ICT 30 W P28 45 S DDC 15 NW LBL 25 NNW LAA 20 E DEN 15 ENE LAR 35 SSE DGW 30 ESE DGW 25 WSW CDR 45 E AIA 10 E LBF 10 W GRI 30 WNW OMA 20 S LSE 50 NW MBL 20 ENE APN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE BPT 45 S ELD 55 W MEM 30 N HOP 20 SSE ZZV 30 W HLG 30 ESE CAK 20 NNE CAK 20 WSW CLE 40 ENE LAF 35 E SZL 15 SE PNC 20 WSW LTS 40 SE BGS 45 ESE P07 ...CONT... 75 SE ELP 20 WNW HOB 30 WSW AMA 30 NNE DHT 35 ENE TAD 55 SE VEL 50 NE EKO 65 NNW LOL 20 E RBL 25 W RBL 35 ESE EKA 15 E 4BK 25 SSW ONP ...CONT... 60 N ISN 10 ESE OLF 25 N MLS 20 ENE 81V 20 NNW MHN 30 NW BBW 40 ESE BUB 20 S SUX 25 S EAU 35 SE ANJ ...CONT... 30 WSW MSS 45 E UCA 15 E PSF 25 SSE BOS ...CONT... 30 NE ORF 15 N RDU 20 N CAE AYS 50 S GNV 25 S AGR 25 S PBI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL PLAINS...HIGH PLAINS...UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES STATES... ...CNTRL PLAINS AND HIGH PLAINS... A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SWD TONIGHT AND SHOULD REACH CO...KS AND IA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCUS FOR SEVERE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ON DAY 2. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO RETURN NWD THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS TONIGHT AS A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS. MID 60 SFC DEWPOINTS NEAR THE RED RIVER WILL MOVE NWD INTO KANSAS AND THIS COMBINED WITH SFC HEATING WILL RESULT IN LOW-END MODERATE INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON. THE ETA/ETAKF AND GFS GENERALLY AGREE...BRINGING A SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS MONDAY. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT COMBINED WITH THE INSTABILITY FOR STORM INITIATION ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE. ALTHOUGH SPEED SHEAR SHOULD BE WEAK ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS...FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR 21Z MONDAY SHOW STRONG VEERING WITH HEIGHT FROM THE SFC TO 500 MB. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A DISCRETE SUPERCELL THREAT ESPECIALLY IF MORE INSTABILITY DEVELOPS THAN IS FORECAST. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8.0 TO 8.5 C/KM WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A LARGE HAIL THREAT ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE MOST WIDESPREAD STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD OCCUR FROM SW IA TO CNTRL KS. OTHER MORE ISOLATED STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP NEAR PEAK HEATING ACROSS SW NEB...WRN KS AND ERN CO. A TRANSITION TO A LINEAR MODE SHOULD TAKE PLACE DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS. THE LINE WILL LIKELY MOVE SEWD IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO SRN KS AND NERN MO WITH THE SEVERE POTENTIAL GRADUALLY DECREASING OVERNIGHT. ...UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES... AN MCS SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS NW IA...SRN MN AND NRN WI DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON DAY 2. SFC DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER 60S F ACROSS IA AND SRN WI IN RESPONSE MOISTURE ADVECTION OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE LOW-LEVEL JET. THE MCS SHOULD CONTINUE TO FEED OFF THE HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR AND IT MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS MOVING INTO IA...NRN IL AND SRN WI. LATER AFFECTING LOWER MI...NRN IND BY THE EVENING. A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST WITH THIS SYSTEM. FARTHER WEST ACROSS SRN WI...FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON SUGGEST LAPSE RATES WILL NOT BE PARTICULAR STEEP. THIS MAY BE PROBLEMATIC FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY. HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BE STRONGER ACROSS SERN IA. THIS MAY RESULT IN A SUPERCELL THREAT ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR THAT WILL EXIST. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER CELLS WITH WIND DAMAGE ALSO POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WITH THE FASTER MOVING CELLS IN THE LINE. AN MCS SHOULD ORGANIZE ACROSS IA DURING THE EVENING...MOVING INTO NRN IL AND SRN WI OVERNIGHT. ..BROYLES.. 05/16/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon May 17 07:48:33 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 17 May 2004 02:48:33 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200405170748.i4H7mIo17914@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 170745 SWODY2 SPC AC 170743 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0243 AM CDT MON MAY 17 2004 VALID 181200Z - 191200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE HUL 15 ESE LCI 20 ESE BDR ...CONT... 25 SSW ACY 45 E LYH 15 SE SSU 45 ENE EKN 30 W MGW 15 SSW EVV 25 WNW HRO 45 ESE GAG 25 W EHA LAA 15 SE DEN 20 WSW DGW 20 ENE COD 60 ENE BIL 35 NW MBG 50 NNE BUB 50 ESE OMA 20 N PIA 20 S ARB 20 N BUF MSS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S PSX 60 E CLL 35 ESE SHV 40 SSW JBR 25 NNW FSM 20 E CSM 20 SE CAO 40 S LHX 45 ESE ASE 45 NNE CAG 35 SW RKS 35 NW MLF 20 E BAM 20 WSW LOL 45 ESE RBL 40 WSW MHS 45 SSE OTH 30 W PDX 20 WNW CLM ...CONT... 75 NE MOT 25 SSW GFK 20 E OTG 10 E JVL 25 NNW LAN 60 ESE OSC. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A BROAD AREA EXTENDING FROM THE CNTRL HI PLNS/CNTRL PLNS EAST INTO THE OH VLY/MID ATL STATES AND NORTHEAST... ...SYNOPSIS... SRN BRANCH OF PERSISTENT SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE LWR 48 ON TUESDAY AS BLOCK INTENSIFIES OVER THE NE PACIFIC. IN RESPONSE TO AMPLIFICATION OF PACIFIC RIDGE...EXPECT THAT UPPER LOW NOW OFF THE NRN CA CST WILL ELONGATE NE/SW ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW/NRN GRT BASIN. THIS...IN TURN...SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY HEIGHT RISES OVER THE CNTRL AND SRN PLNS. BEFORE HEIGHT RISES BEGIN IN EARNEST OVER THE PLNS...BOTH SATELLITE AND MODEL DATA INDICATE THAT AT LEAST ONE FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE /SYSTEM NOW CROSSING THE SIERRA/...AND PERHAPS ONE ADDITIONAL WEAKER IMPULSE...WILL INTERACT WITH STALLING FRONTAL ZONE OVER ERN CO/KS AND MO ON TUESDAY. FARTHER E...TEMPORARY PHASING OF SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES IN BOTH THE NRN AND SRN STREAMS IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN EXISTING LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER NEW ENG. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PROCESS SHOULD DROP SE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY 12Z WEDNESDAY...WHILE TRAILING WRN PART BEGINS TO SHIFT N AS A WARM FRONT OVER THE CNTRL PLNS. ...OH VLY TO INTERIOR NEW ENG AND THE MID ATL CST... A BAND OF MODERATE TO STRONG /40-50 KT/ WSWLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE LWR GRT LKS AND NEW ENG ON TUESDAY AS UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS N OF REGION. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE WEAK /AROUND 6.5 DEG C PER KM/. BUT COMBINATION OF UPLIFT ALONG COLD FRONT AND/OR CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW SEGMENTS FROM DAY ONE STORMS AND SURFACE HEATING SHOULD PROVE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM NRN AND CNTRL IL/IND/OH ENE INTO PA/NY AND INTERIOR NEW ENG. OTHER STORMS MAY FORM INVOF LEE TROUGH OVER PIEDMONT SECTIONS OF VA/MD AND SE PA. WITH AMPLE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IN PLACE /AVERAGE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S/... UNIDIRECTIONAL MEAN FLOW WILL FAVOR CLUSTERS/SHORT LINES OF STORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN WITH NIGHTFALL. ...MO AND KS W/NW INTO THE CNTRL HI PLNS... A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WARM ADVECTION INVOF STALLING FRONTAL ZONE NOW OVER SRN NEB/NW KS WILL RESULT IN SEVERAL EPISODES OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS DURING THE PERIOD OVER PARTS OF KS AND MO. OTHER SEVERE STORMS MAY FORM IN LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS ERN CO/ERN WY AND PERHAPS SE MT. QUALITY OF LOWER TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE INFLOW /DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND 850 MB DEWPOINTS AOA 14C/...DRY ADIABATIC MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 40 KT DEEP WLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH SRN STREAM JET SUGGEST GOOD LIKELIHOOD FOR SUPERCELLS/SUPERCELL CLUSTERS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL/HIGH WIND AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES IN KS/MO. DETAILS REGARDING TIMING/LOCATION OF STRONGEST ACTIVITY WILL BE MODULATED BY PASSING IMPULSES IN THE UPPER JET...AND BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW FROM EXPECTED OVERNIGHT STORMS. GIVEN NEARLY STATIONARY POSITION OF LOW LEVEL JET AND EXPECTED THERMODYNAMIC SETUP...THE GREATEST RISK FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE /ESPECIALLY LARGE HAIL/ WOULD APPEAR TO BE OVER CNTRL AND ERN KS. IF HEIGHT RISES AND ASSOCIATED CAP STRENGTHENING PROVE TO BE SOMEWHAT LESS THAN IS NOW EXPECTED...THIS THREAT COULD EXTEND AS FAR W AS ERN CO. STRENGTHENING WARM ADVECTION DOWNSTREAM FROM AMPLIFYING TROUGH IN THE WEST COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF STORMS NWD AND EWD INTO NEB AND PERHAPS THE DAKS TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. ..NRN GRT BASIN... ..CORFIDI.. 05/17/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon May 17 07:56:39 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 17 May 2004 02:56:39 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200405170756.i4H7uPo21011@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 170754 SWODY2 SPC AC 170752 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0252 AM CDT MON MAY 17 2004 VALID 181200Z - 191200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE HUL 15 ESE LCI 20 ESE BDR ...CONT... 25 SSW ACY 45 E LYH 15 SE SSU 45 ENE EKN 30 W MGW 15 SSW EVV 25 WNW HRO 45 ESE GAG 25 W EHA LAA 15 SE DEN 20 WSW DGW 20 ENE COD 60 ENE BIL 35 NW MBG 50 NNE BUB 50 ESE OMA 20 N PIA 20 S ARB 20 N BUF MSS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S PSX 60 E CLL 35 ESE SHV 40 SSW JBR 25 NNW FSM 20 E CSM 20 SE CAO 40 S LHX 45 ESE ASE 45 NNE CAG 35 SW RKS 35 NW MLF 20 E BAM 20 WSW LOL 45 ESE RBL 40 WSW MHS 45 SSE OTH 30 W PDX 20 WNW CLM ...CONT... 75 NE MOT 25 SSW GFK 20 E OTG 10 E JVL 25 NNW LAN 60 ESE OSC. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A BROAD AREA EXTENDING FROM THE CNTRL HI PLNS/CNTRL PLNS EAST INTO THE OH VLY/MID ATL STATES AND NORTHEAST... ...SYNOPSIS... SRN BRANCH OF PERSISTENT SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE LWR 48 ON TUESDAY AS BLOCK INTENSIFIES OVER THE NE PACIFIC. IN RESPONSE TO AMPLIFICATION OF PACIFIC RIDGE...EXPECT THAT UPPER LOW NOW OFF THE NRN CA CST WILL ELONGATE NE/SW ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW/NRN GRT BASIN. THIS...IN TURN...SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY HEIGHT RISES OVER THE CNTRL AND SRN PLNS. BEFORE HEIGHT RISES BEGIN IN EARNEST OVER THE PLNS...BOTH SATELLITE AND MODEL DATA INDICATE THAT AT LEAST ONE FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE /SYSTEM NOW CROSSING THE SIERRA/...AND PERHAPS ONE ADDITIONAL WEAKER IMPULSE...WILL INTERACT WITH STALLING FRONTAL ZONE OVER ERN CO/KS AND MO ON TUESDAY. FARTHER E...TEMPORARY PHASING OF SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES IN BOTH THE NRN AND SRN STREAMS IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN EXISTING LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER NEW ENG. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PROCESS SHOULD DROP SE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY 12Z WEDNESDAY...WHILE TRAILING WRN PART BEGINS TO SHIFT N AS A WARM FRONT OVER THE CNTRL PLNS. ...OH VLY TO INTERIOR NEW ENG AND THE MID ATL CST... A BAND OF MODERATE TO STRONG /40-50 KT/ WSWLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE LWR GRT LKS AND NEW ENG ON TUESDAY AS UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS N OF REGION. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE WEAK /AROUND 6.5 DEG C PER KM/. BUT COMBINATION OF UPLIFT ALONG COLD FRONT AND/OR CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW SEGMENTS FROM DAY ONE STORMS AND SURFACE HEATING SHOULD PROVE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM NRN AND CNTRL IL/IND/OH ENE INTO PA/NY AND INTERIOR NEW ENG. OTHER STORMS MAY FORM INVOF LEE TROUGH OVER PIEDMONT SECTIONS OF VA/MD AND SE PA. WITH AMPLE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IN PLACE /AVERAGE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S/... UNIDIRECTIONAL MEAN FLOW WILL FAVOR CLUSTERS/SHORT LINES OF STORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN WITH NIGHTFALL. ...MO AND KS W/NW INTO THE CNTRL HI PLNS... A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WARM ADVECTION INVOF STALLING FRONTAL ZONE NOW OVER SRN NEB/NW KS WILL RESULT IN SEVERAL EPISODES OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS DURING THE PERIOD OVER PARTS OF KS AND MO. OTHER SEVERE STORMS MAY FORM IN LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS ERN CO/ERN WY AND PERHAPS SE MT. QUALITY OF LOWER TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE INFLOW /DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND 850 MB DEWPOINTS AOA 14C/...DRY ADIABATIC MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 40 KT DEEP WLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH SRN STREAM JET SUGGEST GOOD LIKELIHOOD FOR SUPERCELLS/SUPERCELL CLUSTERS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL/HIGH WIND AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES IN KS/MO. DETAILS REGARDING TIMING/LOCATION OF STRONGEST ACTIVITY WILL BE MODULATED BY PASSING IMPULSES IN THE UPPER JET...AND BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW FROM EXPECTED OVERNIGHT STORMS. GIVEN NEARLY STATIONARY POSITION OF LOW LEVEL JET AND EXPECTED THERMODYNAMIC SETUP...THE GREATEST RISK FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE /ESPECIALLY LARGE HAIL/ WOULD APPEAR TO BE OVER CNTRL AND ERN KS. IF HEIGHT RISES AND ASSOCIATED CAP STRENGTHENING PROVE TO BE SOMEWHAT LESS THAN IS NOW EXPECTED...THIS THREAT COULD EXTEND AS FAR W AS ERN CO. STRENGTHENING WARM ADVECTION DOWNSTREAM FROM AMPLIFYING TROUGH IN THE WEST COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF STORMS NWD AND EWD INTO NEB AND PERHAPS THE DAKS TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. ..CORFIDI.. 05/17/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon May 17 08:09:02 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 17 May 2004 03:09:02 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200405170808.i4H88lo26439@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 170805 SWODY2 SPC AC 170803 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0303 AM CDT MON MAY 17 2004 VALID 181200Z - 191200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE HUL 15 ESE LCI 20 ESE BDR ...CONT... 25 SSW ACY 45 E LYH 15 SE SSU 45 ENE EKN 30 W MGW 15 SSW EVV 25 WNW HRO 45 ESE GAG 25 W EHA LAA 15 SE DEN 20 WSW DGW 20 ENE COD 60 ENE BIL 35 NW MBG 50 NNE BUB 50 ESE OMA 20 N PIA 20 S ARB 20 N BUF MSS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 NE MOT 25 SSW GFK 20 E OTG 10 E JVL 25 NNW LAN 60 ESE OSC ...CONT... 35 S PSX 60 E CLL 35 ESE SHV 40 SSW JBR 25 NNW FSM 20 E CSM 20 SE CAO 40 S LHX 45 ESE ASE 45 NNE CAG 35 SW RKS 35 NW MLF 20 E BAM 20 WSW LOL 45 ESE RBL 40 WSW MHS 45 SSE OTH 30 W PDX 20 WNW CLM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A BROAD AREA EXTENDING FROM THE CNTRL HI PLNS/CNTRL PLNS EAST INTO THE OH VLY/MID ATL STATES AND NORTHEAST... ADDED DISCUSSION ON NRN GRT BASIN ...SYNOPSIS... SRN BRANCH OF PERSISTENT SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE LWR 48 ON TUESDAY AS BLOCK INTENSIFIES OVER THE NE PACIFIC. IN RESPONSE TO AMPLIFICATION OF PACIFIC RIDGE...EXPECT THAT UPPER LOW NOW OFF THE NRN CA CST WILL ELONGATE NE/SW ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW/NRN GRT BASIN. THIS...IN TURN...SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY HEIGHT RISES OVER THE CNTRL AND SRN PLNS. BEFORE HEIGHT RISES BEGIN IN EARNEST OVER THE PLNS...BOTH SATELLITE AND MODEL DATA INDICATE THAT AT LEAST ONE FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE /SYSTEM NOW CROSSING THE SIERRA/...AND PERHAPS ONE ADDITIONAL WEAKER IMPULSE...WILL INTERACT WITH STALLING FRONTAL ZONE OVER ERN CO/KS AND MO ON TUESDAY. FARTHER E...TEMPORARY PHASING OF SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES IN BOTH THE NRN AND SRN STREAMS IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN EXISTING LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER NEW ENG. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PROCESS SHOULD DROP SE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY 12Z WEDNESDAY...WHILE TRAILING WRN PART BEGINS TO SHIFT N AS A WARM FRONT OVER THE CNTRL PLNS. ...OH VLY TO INTERIOR NEW ENG AND THE MID ATL CST... A BAND OF MODERATE TO STRONG /40-50 KT/ WSWLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE LWR GRT LKS AND NEW ENG ON TUESDAY AS UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS N OF REGION. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE WEAK /AROUND 6.5 DEG C PER KM/. BUT COMBINATION OF UPLIFT ALONG COLD FRONT AND/OR CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW SEGMENTS FROM DAY ONE STORMS AND SURFACE HEATING SHOULD PROVE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM NRN AND CNTRL IL/IND/OH ENE INTO PA/NY AND INTERIOR NEW ENG. OTHER STORMS MAY FORM INVOF LEE TROUGH OVER PIEDMONT SECTIONS OF VA/MD AND SE PA. WITH AMPLE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IN PLACE /AVERAGE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S/... UNIDIRECTIONAL MEAN FLOW WILL FAVOR CLUSTERS/SHORT LINES OF STORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN WITH NIGHTFALL. ...MO AND KS W/NW INTO THE CNTRL HI PLNS... A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WARM ADVECTION INVOF STALLING FRONTAL ZONE NOW OVER SRN NEB/NW KS WILL RESULT IN SEVERAL EPISODES OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS DURING THE PERIOD OVER PARTS OF KS AND MO. OTHER SEVERE STORMS MAY FORM IN LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS ERN CO/ERN WY AND PERHAPS SE MT. QUALITY OF LOWER TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE INFLOW /DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND 850 MB DEWPOINTS AOA 14C/...DRY ADIABATIC MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 40 KT DEEP WLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH SRN STREAM JET SUGGEST GOOD LIKELIHOOD FOR SUPERCELLS/SUPERCELL CLUSTERS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL/HIGH WIND AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES IN KS/MO. DETAILS REGARDING TIMING/LOCATION OF STRONGEST ACTIVITY WILL BE MODULATED BY PASSING IMPULSES IN THE UPPER JET...AND BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW FROM EXPECTED OVERNIGHT STORMS. GIVEN NEARLY STATIONARY POSITION OF LOW LEVEL JET AND EXPECTED THERMODYNAMIC SETUP...THE GREATEST RISK FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE /ESPECIALLY LARGE HAIL/ WOULD APPEAR TO BE OVER CNTRL AND ERN KS. IF HEIGHT RISES AND ASSOCIATED CAP STRENGTHENING PROVE TO BE SOMEWHAT LESS THAN IS NOW EXPECTED...THIS THREAT COULD EXTEND AS FAR W AS ERN CO. STRENGTHENING WARM ADVECTION DOWNSTREAM FROM AMPLIFYING TROUGH IN THE WEST COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF STORMS NWD AND EWD INTO NEB AND PERHAPS THE DAKS TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. ...NRN GRT BASIN... SCATTERED DIURNALLY ENHANCED STORMS...INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS ...WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY NERN QUADRANT OF ELONGATING UPPER LOW OVER THE NRN GRT BASIN. WHILE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE SPARSE...SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 30S TO PERHAPS THE LWR 40S WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SUSTAINED STORMS GIVEN STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT. THE THREAT FOR HAIL/HIGH WIND AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO WOULD APPEAR TO BE GREATEST OVER THE UPR SNAKE RVR VLY INTO WRN WY AND PERHAPS NRN UT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ..CORFIDI.. 05/17/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon May 17 17:45:08 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 17 May 2004 12:45:08 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200405171744.i4HHiwo14414@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 171742 SWODY2 SPC AC 171740 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1240 PM CDT MON MAY 17 2004 VALID 181200Z - 191200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM HUL 20 NNE PSM 10 N BDR DOV HGR 20 W MGW EVV HRO 10 SE END GAG EHA 10 SSE LAA DEN CPR 20 ENE COD 10 NW BIL GDV 20 NW MBG OFK 15 SE OMA 50 NNE SZL UIN 25 N PIA 20 S ARB 20 SE DTW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NNE DVL FAR 20 SSW BKX FSD DSM 10 SE JVL MKG 60 ESE OSC ...CONT... 35 NNW ORF 10 NE RDU CAE AGS AYS GNV 55 W ORL 10 SSE SRQ ...CONT... 35 S PSX 60 E CLL 35 ESE SHV 40 SSW JBR MKO CSM 10 SE DHT PUB 45 ESE ASE MTJ U17 10 SE CDC 55 NW MLF 10 SE ENV 20 SE OWY SVE 10 S RBL MFR 10 SE RDM SEA 35 W BLI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THE NRN/CNTRL U.S.... ...OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES INTO NORTHEAST STATES... SERIES OF SHORT WAVES ARE EVIDENT IN LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY... PROGRESSING THROUGH BROAD UPPER TROUGH WHICH PERSISTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CANADIAN PROVINCES. THIS INCLUDES POSITIVELY TILTED SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN...WHICH ALREADY APPEARS TO BE TURNING EASTWARD TOWARD ONTARIO/QUEBEC AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. MODELS SUGGEST THAT AS THIS MOTION CONTINUES... SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY MERGE WITH WEAKER SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMANATING FROM BROADER SCALE NORTHWESTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH. BY EARLY TUESDAY ...A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE AND INTENSIFYING MID/UPPER JET STREAK IS PROGGED OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. AS UPPER TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES EASTWARD INTO/THROUGH THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY DURING THE COURSE OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...FRONTAL ZONE WILL ADVANCE SOUTHWARD/SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND NORTH ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS. DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...NEAR/SHORTLY AFTER PEAK HEATING...MODELS SUGGEST FRONT WILL PROGRESS SOUTHEAST OF LAKES ONTARIO/ERIE...PROVIDING FORCING/FOCUS FOR INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THOUGH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES DO NOT APPEAR LIKELY TO BECOME PARTICULARLY STEEP...FAIRLY STRONG SURFACE HEATING SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS MUCH OF OHIO/PENNSYLVANIA/AND NEW YORK STATE. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WITH SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE FOR MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG... SUPPORTIVE OF VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS WITH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL. THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...WITH THIS RISK ENHANCED BY 40 KT MEAN FLOW REGIME ON SOUTHERN FRINGE OF STRONGER WESTERLIES. SEVERAL LINES OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS APPEAR LIKELY TO EVOLVE THROUGH THE LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...PERHAPS MERGING INTO ONE EXTENSIVE SQUALL LINE ORIENTED IN EAST-WEST BAND ALONG FRONTAL ZONE..FROM NEW ENGLAND AND THE HUDSON VALLEY THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH IN INTENSITY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST REGION/NORTH CENTRAL APPALACHIANS/AND AREAS NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. ...CENTRAL PLAINS INTO NORTHERN ROCKIES.. STRONG WESTERLY MID/UPPER JET STREAK IS CURRENTLY NOSING INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC COAST. MODELS SUGGEST THIS FEATURE...AND ASSOCIATED EVOLVING CLOSED LOW...WILL GRADUALLY PROGRESS ACROSS THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL ROCKIES LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IN RESPONSE...STRENGTHENING SOUTHEASTERLY MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION...AND INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES FOR SUPERCELLS BY PEAK HEATING...FROM THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES INTO SOUTHEAST MONTANA. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONSOLIDATE IN STRONG WARM ADVECTION REGIME ALONG STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA AND THE WESTERN DAKOTAS TUESDAY EVENING. RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY PERSIST INTO THESE AREAS...BUT AS LOW-LEVEL JET VEERS OVERNIGHT...LARGE HAIL WILL BECOME PRIMARY THREAT AS ACTIVITY BECOMES INCREASINGLY BASED ABOVE SURFACE BASED INVERSION LAYER ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. ...SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS INTO OZARKS... CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH REGARD TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS PROGGED TO EXPAND NORTHWARD OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WHICH WILL LIKELY CAP VERY MOIST AND POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. HOWEVER...LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUPPORTS MODEL PROGS WHICH SUGGEST WEAK SHORT WAVE TOPPING THIS RIDGE EARLY TUESDAY...ACROSS THE OZARKS. CLUSTER OF STORMS COULD DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE...ON NOSE OF SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET...WHICH MAY PERSIST AS STRONGER MID-LEVEL FORCING SHIFTS TOWARD THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. ..KERR.. 05/17/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue May 18 07:59:57 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 18 May 2004 02:59:57 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200405180759.i4I7xdo14091@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 180755 SWODY2 SPC AC 180753 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0253 AM CDT TUE MAY 18 2004 VALID 191200Z - 201200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW GRI 25 NE HON 30 NE ATY 15 WNW RST 15 N LNR 25 NNE BRL 15 N BIE 35 NNW GRI. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 SE OSC 35 WSW TOL 50 ESE LUK OWB 20 NE COU 10 W MHK 30 NE IML 10 NE PIR 25 SSE P24 40 W DVL 10 NNE DLH 100 NNW ANJ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S ELP 45 WNW ROW 30 E CVS 25 SSW LBB 20 SW MAF 30 ESE P07. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NNW ROC 45 W ELM 30 S IPT ACY ...CONT... 30 SSW BPT 15 S POE 15 NNE TUP 50 SSW CKV PAH 25 SE VIH 30 NNE CNU 35 W HUT 40 E GLD 35 NE DEN 15 ESE U28 30 WNW U24 60 NE EKO 15 SW WMC 10 SE SAC 45 ESE EKA 35 NNW MFR 60 NE RDM 30 WSW YKM 50 ENE BLI ...CONT... 35 NNE CTB 25 ENE HLN 50 SE LVM 55 N DGW 25 SW RAP 30 ESE REJ 70 NNE OLF. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF NEB/SE SD/IA AND SRN MN... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LWR MO VLY E INTO THE MID/UPR MS VLYS AND UPR GRT LKS... ...SYNOPSIS... SPLIT FLOW PATTERN DOWNSTREAM FROM PERSISTENT NE PACIFIC BLOCK WILL PREVAIL OVER THE LWR 48 ON WEDNESDAY AS UPR RIDGE BUILDS N ACROSS THE SRN PLN/LWR MS VLY. NRN PART OF UPPER LOW NOW OVER THE PACIFIC NW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE E FROM MT TO THE UPR GRT LKS DURING THE PERIOD AS NRN STREAM SPEED MAX SWEEPS E/SE ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN /MANITOBA. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN WSWLY MID LEVEL FLOW OVER THE NRN PLNS/UPR MS VLY DURING THE PERIOD...WITH SPEEDS IN EXCESS OF 75 KT LIKELY OVER MN/WI BY 12Z THURSDAY. AT LOWER LEVELS...APPROACH OF MT DISTURBANCE WILL INDUCE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE WRN DAKOTAS...ALONG WRN END OF SURFACE FRONT NOW OVER THE CNTRL PLNS/LWR MO VLY. THE LOW SHOULD DEEPEN AND ACCELERATE E/NE INTO WRN ONTARIO BY THURSDAY MORNING AS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT MOVES/REDEVELOPS RAPIDLY NE INTO LWR MI/OH. ...LWR MO VLY TO MID/UPR MS VLY AND UPR GRT LKS... WEDNESDAY WILL BE AN ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER DAY OVER PARTS OF THE LWR MO AND MID/UPR MS VLY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL/HIGH WIND AND TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO HEAVY RAIN. CLUSTERS OF WARM ADVECTION THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE PRESENT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ALONG/AHEAD OF WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE WRN DAKS SE INTO NEB/MO. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD PRODUCE HAIL AND PERHAPS DAMAGING WIND...GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUD LAYER SHEAR/ INSTABILITY. A GREATER THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL LIKELY DEVELOP LATER IN THE DAY AS CONTINUED EWD MOTION OF MT UPR IMPULSE ENHANCES LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACROSS REGION. COUPLED WITH SURFACE HEATING... FRONTAL UPLIFT...CONTINUED RICH LOWER TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE INFLOW /850 MB DEWPOINTS AOA 16C/ AND INCREASING DEEP SHEAR /TO AROUND 50 KT BY 00Z THURSDAY/...SETUP WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS/SUPERCELL CLUSTERS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL/HIGH WIND AND TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY OVER ERN NEB/SE SD/WRN IA AND SW MN. STRONG REGIONAL FORCING AND DEGREE OF INSTABILITY /MLCAPE TO 3000 J/KG/ SUGGEST FAIRLY WIDESPREAD STORM COVERAGE IN MDT RISK AREA. COUPLED WITH INCREASING DEEP SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL DESTABILIZATION EXPECTED BY LATE IN THE DAY E/NE INTO ERN IA NRN IL AND WI... EXPECT THAT ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY EVOLVE INTO ONE OR MORE LARGE MCSS. THESE SYSTEMS WILL LIKELY CONTAIN A FEW EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS/BOWS...POSSIBLY EXTENDING A SEVERE THREAT INTO PARTS OF MI BY LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY. GIVEN MEAN WLY MID TROPOSPHERIC WLY FLOW...DISTRIBUTION OF SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY AND EXPECTED DIURNAL/QG STRENGTHENING OF THE LOW LEVEL JET...THERE MAY ALSO BE A TENDENCY FOR STORM CLUSTERS TO BACK-BUILD W ACROSS IA AND PERHAPS INTO ERN NEB WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY...ALONG NRN FRINGE OF CAP ASSOCIATED WITH SRN PLNS RIDGE. THESE STORMS MAY YIELD HAIL/HIGH WIND AND EXCESSIVE RAIN...DESPITE EWD PASSAGE OF MAIN UPPER DISTURBANCE. FARTHER E/SE AND EARLIER IN THE DAY...SURFACE HEATING AND FRONTAL CONVERGENCE MAY SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS/STORM CLUSTERS IN WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT ALONG WARM FRONT FROM MO EWD INTO IL/IND/OH...WHERE DEEP WNWLY SHEAR WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 30 KT. ..CORFIDI.. 05/18/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue May 18 17:33:39 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 18 May 2004 12:33:39 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200405181733.i4IHXJo30714@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 181730 SWODY2 SPC AC 181728 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1228 PM CDT TUE MAY 18 2004 VALID 191200Z - 201200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW GRI 25 NE HON 30 NE ATY 15 WNW RST 15 N LNR 25 NNE BRL 15 N BIE 35 NNW GRI. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 SE OSC 35 WSW TOL 50 ESE LUK OWB 20 NE COU 10 W MHK 30 NE IML 35 N PHP 30 W MOT 60 NNE DVL 30 NE ELO 40 N ANJ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S ELP 45 WNW ROW 30 E CVS 25 SSW LBB 20 SW MAF 30 ESE P07. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W ART 10 ESE BFD 40 SE PSB ACY ...CONT... 30 SSW BPT 15 S POE 15 NNE TUP 50 SSW CKV 35 NNW DYR 35 W POF 40 N JLN 20 ESE SLN 35 SE GLD 35 NE DEN 15 ESE U28 30 WNW U24 60 NE EKO 15 SW WMC 10 SE SAC 45 ESE EKA 35 NNW MFR 60 NE RDM 30 WSW YKM 50 ENE BLI ...CONT... 35 NNE CTB 25 ENE HLN 50 SE LVM 55 N DGW 25 SSE 81V 15 NW REJ 70 NNE OLF. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SERN SD...ERN NEB EWD INTO SWRN MN...EXTREME SWRN WI AND MOST OF IA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS STATES EWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VLY... ...SYNOPSIS... SPLIT FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE INTO MIDWEEK...WITH STRONGEST WLYS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF THE NATION. MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING NEWD THROUGH THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TODAY WILL TRACK EWD TO THE NRN GTLKS REGION BY EARLY THURSDAY... ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF NRN STREAM SYSTEM OVER NRN SASK. LOWER AMPLITUDE WAVE TRAIN WILL CARRY WEAKER JETLETS FROM THE ERN PAC BASIN THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND ONTO THE PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD ON THE NRN EDGE OF BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. ONE SUCH DISTURBANCE... CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER KS...WILL CONTINUE EWD ALONG SRN PART OF THE WLYS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER IMPULSE WILL APPROACH THE LOWER MO VLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. AT THE SURFACE...BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SHIFT SWD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND/ NRN MID ATLANTIC THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TAIL END OF THE FRONT WILL REDEVELOP NWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A LEE-LOW DEEPENS ACROSS THE DAKS AND MOVES EWD. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR AN ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER DAY...PARTICULARLY IN THE PLAINS/UPPER MS VLY. ...LWR MO/UPPER MS VLYS EWD TO THE GTLKS REGION/UPPER MIDWEST... ELEVATED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING ACROSS THE DAKS SWD INTO NEB AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...AIDED BY SLY LLJ/WARM ADVECTION. THESE TSTMS SHOULD MOVE/DEVELOP EWD WITH TIME TOWARD THE NRN GTLKS REGION AS THE STRONGEST THETA-E ADVECTION SHIFTS EWD. HAIL/ DAMAGING WINDS COULD OCCUR WITH THIS ACTIVITY GIVEN SUFFICIENT MUCAPE/CAPE-BEARING SHEAR. MAIN SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE DELAYED UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. AS WARM FRONT REDEVELOPS NWD...AIR MASS SHOULD RECOVER QUICKLY NWD. MOIST SLY FLOW WILL ADVECT UPPER 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS NWD BENEATH STEEP MID-TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES AND CONTRIBUTE TO A VERY UNSTABLE SITUATION...WITH MLCAPES OF 3000-3500 J/KG IN THE LWR MO VLY. AIR MASS SHOULD REMAIN CAPPED MOST OF THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...LARGE SCALE ASCENT SHOULD INCREASE AS 1/ EJECTING MIDLEVEL DISTURBANCE MIGRATES ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND 2/ LOW AMPLITUDE IMPULSE MOVES ALONG THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE INTO THE LOWER MO VLY. THUS...OVERALL SET-UP SHOULD PROVE FAVORABLE FOR TSTMS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE MO RVR LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS STRONG HEATING...LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE AND UPPER SUPPORT AID IN WEAKENING CINH. MIDLEVEL WLY FLOW OF 60-70 KTS ATOP SLY LOW LEVEL CURRENT OF 25-30 KTS WILL CREATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES...VERY LARGE HAIL COULD RESULT ALONG WITH A FEW TORNADOES DURING THE FIRST FEW HOURS AFTER INITIATION IN ERN SD...NERN NEB...SWRN MN AND WRN IA /WRN PART OF MDT RISK AREA/. ACTIVITY WILL MOST LIKELY CONGEAL INTO A LARGE MCS OVERNIGHT... DEVELOPING/MOVING EWD INTO WI...EXTREME NRN PARTS OF BOTH IND/IL AND POSSIBLY MI VERY LATE. FAVORABLE WLY FLOW WOULD LIKELY ENCOURAGE BOWS/LEWPS AND EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WITH HIGH WINDS/HAIL. DAMAGING WIND THREAT MAY BE PARTICULARLY HIGH ACROSS THE ERN PARTS OF THE MDT RISK AS SUPERCELLS WILL LIKELY TRANSITION INTO BOWS. LATER...KINEMATIC SET-UP ALSO APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR BACKBUILDING/TRAINING OF POSSIBLE SEVERE TSTMS INTO IA/ERN NEB OVERNIGHT. ...MIDWEST TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION... SHORTWAVE TROUGH AIDING CURRENT TSTM COMPLEX OVER MO WILL TRACK EWD ALONG BAROCLINIC ZONE INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION ON WEDNESDAY. DESPITE WEAK MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...FAVORABLE MOIST INFLOW COINCIDENT WITH ENHANCED MIDLEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE IMPULSE WILL LIKELY LEAD TO ORGANIZED TSTM CLUSTERS THE LENGTH OF THE FRONT. THESE TSTMS MAY TEND TO BOW IN THE MEAN WLY FLOW WITH DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL. PARTS OF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC MIGHT BE UPGRADED TO A CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS...ONCE TIMING OF UPSTREAM WAVE IS MORE CERTAIN. OTHERWISE...TSTMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG WARM FRONT ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL IL/IND DURING THE AFTERNOON WHERE AIR MASS BECOMES UNSTABLE...LIS OF MINUS 4. THIS IS A CONDITIONAL SLGT RISK AREA...WITH MOST OF THE SEVERE THREAT LIKELY REMAINING NW OF THE REGION. ..RACY.. 05/18/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed May 19 07:33:36 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 19 May 2004 02:33:36 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200405190733.i4J7XEo21261@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 190731 SWODY2 SPC AC 190729 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0229 AM CDT WED MAY 19 2004 VALID 201200Z - 211200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N PBG 25 W ELM 40 W MRB 25 NW SSU 20 SW SDF 45 SSE OJC 45 SSW GLD 55 NW AKO 40 NE AIA 10 WSW FSD 35 E ALO 25 NE JVL 85 E ANJ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNW MOT 50 SW JMS 15 SE AXN 20 SW RHI 35 ENE ESC 25 N ANJ ...CONT... 25 ENE NEL 20 E BWI 25 SW NHK 25 ESE ORF ...CONT... 30 E JAX 45 S CTY ...CONT... 25 SE 7R4 25 SSW HEZ GWO 35 ENE JBR 45 NW UNO 15 WNW CNU 25 SW DDC 45 SSW DHT 20 SW CNM 65 S MRF ...CONT... 65 SSW DMN 25 N ABQ 10 ENE ASE 50 ESE VEL 15 E PUC 40 ESE DPG 15 NE ENV 55 SSE EKO 30 ESE BIH 20 NW MER 25 NE UKI 40 NE ACV 35 NW RDM 30 ENE BLI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SSE FMY PBI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LWR MO VLY AND MID MS VLY INTO THE LWR GRT LKS... ...SYNOPSIS... SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN EXPECTED TO REMAIN LARGELY UNCHANGED ON THURSDAY AS SPLIT FLOW PATTERN PERSISTS DOWNSTREAM FROM E PACIFIC BLOCK. SPEED MAX EXPECTED TO CROSS THE UPR MS VLY LATER TODAY/TONIGHT WILL SWEEP E FROM THE UPR GRT LKS INTO NEW ENG...IN TANDEM WITH BAND OF STRONG WLY FLOW IN NRN STREAM OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. THIS WILL FAVOR AN EWD EXTENSION OF EXISTING SRN PLNS RIDGE...AND A SLIGHT REBOUND OF HEIGHTS ACROSS THE MID MS VLY. AT LOWER LEVELS...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH UPR GRT LKS IMPULSE SHOULD EXTEND FROM NRN MI TO CNTRL IA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. NRN PART OF BOUNDARY SHOULD SWEEP E TO THE NEW ENG CST BY 12Z FRIDAY...WHILE TRAILING SWRN PORTION BECOMES STATIONARY OVER THE MID MS/LWR MO VLYS. WRN END OF SAME FRONT SHOULD REDEVELOP N ACROSS NEB LATE IN THE PERIOD AS FLOW ALOFT BACKS AHEAD OF AN IMPULSE LIFTING NE FROM GRT BASIN TROUGH. ...LWR GRT LKS/UPR OH VLY INTO WRN NY/PA... COLD FRONT CROSSING SRN ONTARIO AND THE LWR GRT LKS SHOULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR DIURNALLY ENHANCED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ON THURSDAY AS BAND OF 40-50 KT WNW MID LEVEL FLOW OVERSPREADS REGION. FORECAST WIND PROFILES AND BOUNDARY ORIENTATION SUGGEST THAT CONVERGENCE ALONG BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN WEAK...AND LAPSE RATES WILL ALSO BE MARGINAL FOR STRONG CONVECTION /ON THE ORDER OF 6.5 DEG C PER KM/. BUT COMBINATION OF SURFACE HEATING...DIFFLUENT UPR LEVEL FLOW AND MODEST LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED STORMS/STORM CLUSTERS. AMPLE /40-50 KT/ DEEP SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT FOR SUSTAINED STORMS AND POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS WITH BOWING SEGMENTS/HIGH WIND. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN WITH NIGHTFALL. ...LWR MO VLY INTO MID MS VLY... SOMEWHAT MORE SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL LIKELY EXIST ALONG PORTION OF COLD FRONT BECOMING STATIONARY OVER THE MID MS VLY REGION. COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING...PRESENCE OF FAIRLY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ON EDGE OF ELEVATED MIXED LAYER...AND 30-40 KT DEEP WLY SHEAR ORIENTED ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO BOUNDARY... SETUP SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR CLUSTERS OF STRONG STORMS... INCLUDING POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL/HIGH WIND AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO. THE STORMS IN MO/IL/SRN IA AND IND MAY WEAKEN THURSDAY EVENING. BUT ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY N OF DEVELOPING WARM FRONT FROM CNTRL AND ERN NEB INTO MUCH OF IA AND...EVENTUALLY...SRN SD/MN. AMPLE /40+ KT/ CLOUD LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY /CAPE TO 2000 J/KG/ WILL BE PRESENT TO SUPPORT ELEVATED SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS LOCALLY DAMAGING SURFACE WINDS. ..CORFIDI.. 05/19/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed May 19 17:27:58 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 19 May 2004 12:27:58 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200405191727.i4JHRZo11909@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 191725 SWODY2 SPC AC 191723 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1223 PM CDT WED MAY 19 2004 VALID 201200Z - 211200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N PBG 15 NNW BFD 15 NE MGW 25 NNW SSU 25 SW JKL 35 WSW SDF 15 E BIE EAR 25 SW AKO 30 ENE FCL 55 NE AIA 30 E 9V9 20 SW FRM 20 NNE DBQ 15 NW MKE 85 E ANJ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NNW MOT 25 ESE BIS 50 NNE ATY 25 SE STC 25 SSE CWA 35 ENE ESC 25 N ANJ ...CONT... 25 SE PSM 35 SW BGM 25 SSE HGR 25 ESE ORF ...CONT... 30 E JAX 45 S CTY ...CONT... 25 SE 7R4 25 SSW HEZ GWO 35 ENE JBR 30 NNE VIH 50 SSW HSI 15 SSW GCK 25 E AMA 15 SSE MAF 10 SSW P07 ...CONT... 50 SW MRF 50 NNW HOB 30 SW LAA 35 ESE DEN 40 E CAG 25 S U17 45 E SGU 20 WNW SLC 15 NE ENV 55 SSE EKO 30 ESE BIH 20 NW MER 25 NE UKI 40 NE ACV 35 NW RDM 30 ENE BLI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SSE FMY PBI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VLY... ...SYNOPSIS... LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED IN THE OVERALL UPPER FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE NATION ON THURSDAY. UPPER TROUGH SITUATED ACROSS THE WRN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING NWD THROUGH THE MS VLY AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES. THIS WILL KEEP THE STRONGEST WLYS ARCING FROM THE SRN ROCKIES ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE GTLKS AND NEW ENGLAND...FAVORABLE FOR TSTM CLUSTERS TO DEVELOP IN THE PLAINS AND MIGRATE EWD TOWARD NY AND THE UPPER OH VLY. ...CNTRL PLAINS TO THE LOWER GTLKS AND UPPER OH VLY... CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW ON THURSDAYS SEVERE POTENTIAL AS WEDNESDAYS CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION WILL PLAY A ROLE IN THE OVERALL SCENARIO FOR THURSDAY. LOOSELY ORGANIZED MCS MAY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL GTLKS. THESE TSTM CLUSTERS WILL BE EMBEDDED IN THE WLYS AND KINEMATIC SET-UP WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR TSTMS TO QUICKLY TRANSLATE EWD INTO THE LOWER GTLKS AND UPPER OH VLY DURING PEAK HEATING. IT IS CONCEIVABLE THAT GIVEN HEATING AND RAPID RECOVERY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THESE REGIONS THAT DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS COULD SUPPORT STRONG TSTMS ALONG LEADING EDGE OF THE MCS WITH ATTENDANT DAMAGING WIND THREAT. ERN EXTENT OF SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY BE SHARP GIVEN THAT OUTFLOW FROM SURFACE HIGH IN THE GULF OF ME WILL CARRY MORE STABLE AIR MASS INTO MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND/NY AND THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. MEANWHILE...ADDITIONAL TSTMS MAY FORM DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG TRAILING PORTION OF COLD FRONT/OUTFLOW EMANATING FROM THE GTLKS MCS FROM IA INTO THE UPPER OH VLY. GIVEN THAT THE UPPER RIDGE/MIDLEVEL THERMAL RIDGE NOSES NWD DURING THE AFTERNOON...THE CAP WILL BECOME AN ISSUE. IF REGIONAL CONVERGENCE AND STRONG HEATING CAN ERODE CINH ALONG THE FRONT/OUTFLOW...VERTICAL SHEAR/STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ONE OR TWO TORNADOES. DAMAGING WIND THREAT WOULD INCREASE DURING THE EVENING AS TSTM CLUSTERS WITH POSSIBLE BOWS/LEWPS EVOLVE IN WLY FLOW REGIME. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING AS THE LLJ REDIRECTS FARTHER WEST WITH TIME. FINALLY...AS THE UPPER FLOW BACKS DOWNSTREAM OF DEEPENING WRN U.S. TROUGH...A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL TRAVEL NEWD TOWARD THE CNTRL PLAINS OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY. INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND WARM ADVECTION REGIME ALONG NOSE OF THE LLJ WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR TSTMS TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT ACROSS PARTS OF NEB AND MUCH OF IA. THESE WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP INTO PARTS OF SRN SD/MN BY EARLY FRIDAY. 40 KTS OF CLOUD-BEARING SHEAR AND MUCAPE TO 2000 J/KG SHOULD SUPPORT ELEVATED SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS. THOUGH THERE COULD VERY WELL BE A SIGNIFICANT HAIL/WIND THREAT WITHIN THE SLGT RISK AREA...GIVEN LOWER THAN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL SCENARIO AT THIS STAGE IN THE FORECAST PROCESS... PLACING A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE PROBABILITY IN ANY GIVEN AREA IS DIFFICULT. ...SRN HIGH PLAINS... OVER HALF OF THE 09Z SREF MEMBERS SUGGEST THAT ISOLD TSTMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE ACROSS W TX...ERN NM AND SWRN KS. GIVEN A TSTM...VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE MARGINAL TO SUPPORT A SUSTAINED STORM...THOUGH THE SHEAR MAY BE STRONGER THAN RECENT DAYS GIVEN THAT STRONGER MIDLEVEL FLOW WILL BE CLOSER TO THE REGION. AS SUCH...LOCALLY SEVERE WIND OR HAIL COULD OCCUR. ...CNTRL ROCKIES AREA... NUMEROUS DISTURBANCES ROTATING NEWD FROM BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LIKELY SUPPORT TSTMS DEVELOPING DURING PEAK HEATING ACROSS THE CNTRL ROCKIES REGION. THOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE MINIMAL... SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR POSSIBLE STRONG TSTMS THAT MAY YIELD ISOLD HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. ..RACY.. 05/19/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu May 20 08:02:30 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 20 May 2004 03:02:30 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200405200802.i4K824H13397@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 200759 SWODY2 SPC AC 200758 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0258 AM CDT THU MAY 20 2004 VALID 211200Z - 221200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW HSE 40 NE CLT LEX 35 ESE RFD 20 NW DSM 30 S HSI 15 SE AIA 40 S 81V 65 N OLF ...CONT... 50 NNW MOT 30 ESE BIS 50 WSW AXN 45 ENE OSC 15 E BUF 45 ENE EKN 40 ESE ORF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE JAX 40 S GNV 40 SW AGR 55 WNW MIA 20 SSE MIA ...CONT... 30 ESE 7R4 30 SSW MLU 20 ENE LIT 50 ESE VIH 30 W UIN 20 SW OJC 15 E END 35 W MWL 25 SE DRT ...CONT... 60 SSW MRF 20 NNE HOB 30 SSW EHA 50 SE LIC 20 NNW SNY 40 NNE CPR 35 NNW RIW 20 WNW EVW 30 NE ELY 50 N DRA 45 SSW BIH 30 E SCK 10 SW UKI 35 NE ACV 45 N LMT 35 NE RDM 50 SE OLM 15 NNE BLI ...CONT... 40 N ART BOS. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM WRN SD/NEB E ACROSS THE MID MS VLY TO LWR GRT LKS... ...SYNOPSIS... LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE WRN U.S. WILL UNDERGO A FEW CHANGES THIS PERIOD AS UPSTREAM BLOCK HOLDS FIRM IN THE E PACIFIC. IN SHORT... EXPECT MAJOR PORTION OF THE TROUGH TO EJECT NEWD IN PIECEMEAL FASHION DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS...WHILE A NEW CLOSED LOW /ASSOCIATED WITH SPEED MAX NOW TOPPING RIDGE IN AK/...DEVELOPS IN ITS PLACE OVER SRN BC. AT THE SAME TIME...SRN PLNS RIDGE SHOULD EXPAND E INTO THE WRN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE SW TO WSW FLOW FROM THE CNTRL/NRN PLNS ACROSS THE MID/UPR MS VLY TO THE LWR GRT LKS. AT LWR LEVELS...COLD FRONT CROSSING THE GRT LKS REGION TODAY SHOULD BECOME STATIONARY FROM THE MID MS VLY TO MID ATL CST BY 12Z FRIDAY. WRN PART OF BOUNDARY SHOULD LIFT SLIGHTLY N ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE CNTRL PLNS DURING THE PERIOD...AHEAD OF LEAD IMPULSE EJECTING NE FROM WRN TROUGH. ...WRN SD/NEB THROUGH MID MS VLY TO LWR GRT LKS/MID ATL... WARM/STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE PLNS TO THE E CST WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR PERIODIC STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. TIMING OF THESE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS WILL REMAIN UNCERTAIN GIVEN /1/ LOW AMPLITUDE OF SW/WSWLY FLOW ALOFT AND /2/ CONTINUING EFFECT OF ELEVATED MIXED LAYER CAP FROM THE PLNS TO MID MS VLY. A FEW AREAS OF MAINLY ELEVATED STORMS MAY BE PRESENT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD OVER ERN SD/IA/SRN MN AND WI. STRONG /40+ KT/ SWLY LOW LEVEL JET IN THIS REGION WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE DEEP SHEAR AND STRONG CLOUD-LAYER INSTABILITY /CAPE TO 2000 J/KG/... POSING A THREAT FOR HAIL AND POSSIBLY HIGH WIND. SCATTERED SURFACE-BASED STORMS COULD FORM LATER IN THE DAY ALONG OUTFLOW FROM THIS ACTIVITY AND/OR ALONG MAIN SURFACE FRONT FROM SRN WI/CNTRL AND SRN MI SEWD INTO PARTS OF IND/OH/WRN PA/WRN NY... WHERE AMPLE /35-40 KT /DEEP WLY SHEAR WILL EXIST TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS/SUPERCELLS WITH HIGH WIND. SUSTAINED ROTATING CELLS WOULD ALSO POSE A THREAT FOR HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ...ESPECIALLY IN SRN MI/IND/OH WHERE MLCAPE COULD REACH 3000 J/KG AND SURFACE WINDS COULD REMAIN MORE SLY. A FEW STRONG DIURNAL CELLS/ CLUSTERS COULD ALSO DEVELOP INVOF FRONT FARTHER SE INTO WV/VA AND NRN NC. SURFACE-BASED ACTIVITY MAY ALSO DEVELOP WWD WITH TIME INTO MORE STRONGLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT ACROSS NRN IL AND IA...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON THIS SCENARIO GIVEN STRENGTH OF CAP AND ABSENCE OF A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE ALOFT. A SEPARATE AREA OF STORM INITIATION MAY EMERGE OVER THE WRN PARTS OF THE DAKS AND NEB FRIDAY AFTERNOON...INVOF LEE TROUGH/WARM FRONT. THESE FEATURES WILL LIFT NEWD THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF LEAD DISTURBANCE EJECTING NEWD IN SW FLOW ALOFT /THE IMPULSE NOW ENTERING NV/. GIVEN PROXIMITY TO MAIN UPPER JET /SPEEDS AOA 40 KT/...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INCREASINGLY MOIST SELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT...SETUP COULD SUPPORT A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL/HIGH WIND AND A FEW TORNADOES. POTENTIAL WOULD ALSO EXIST FOR UPSCALE DEVELOPMENT INTO A FORWARD PROPAGATING CLUSTER. THIS SYSTEM MAY REACH THE LWR MO VLY BY SATURDAY MORNING...AND MERGE WITH OTHER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH STRENGTHENING OF THE LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE MID/UPR MS VLY. ..CORFIDI.. 05/20/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu May 20 17:13:13 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 20 May 2004 12:13:13 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200405201712.i4KHCke14312@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 201710 SWODY2 SPC AC 201708 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1208 PM CDT THU MAY 20 2004 VALID 211200Z - 221200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW HSE 40 NE CLT LEX 35 ESE RFD 20 NW DSM 30 S HSI 15 E AIA 35 S 81V 30 SSE MLS 65 NNE OLF ...CONT... 50 NNW MOT 30 ESE BIS 50 WSW AXN 45 ENE OSC 15 E BUF 45 ENE EKN 40 ESE ORF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE JAX 40 S GNV 40 SW AGR 55 WNW MIA 20 SSE MIA ...CONT... 30 ESE 7R4 45 SW MLU 15 NW LIT 50 ESE VIH 20 NNE UIN 30 E CNK 30 E P28 45 SW SPS 15 NNW DRT ...CONT... 75 S MRF 35 ENE HOB 60 SSW LBL 45 SW GLD 20 NNW SNY 40 NNE CPR 35 NNW RIW 20 WNW EVW 30 NE ELY 50 N DRA 45 SSW BIH 30 E SCK 10 SW UKI 35 NE ACV 45 N LMT 35 NE RDM 50 SE OLM 15 NNE BLI ...CONT... 40 N ART BOS. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS WRN SD/NEB E ACROSS THE MID MS VLY TO LOWER GREAT LAKES... ...SYNOPSIS... PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WRN PARTS OF THE NATION WILL SHOW SIGNS OF WEAKENING AND EJECTING NEWD BY LATE FRIDAY AS NEXT IMPULSE DROPS DOWN ERN SIDE OF A RIDGE OVER AK. DOWNSTREAM RIDGE WILL BROADEN AND EDGE EWD ACROSS THE SERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY. COMBINATION OF EJECTING WRN CONUS TROUGH AND FLATTENING RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN MODEST SWLY BELT OF MIDLEVEL FLOW ARCING FROM THE SRN ROCKIES ACROSS THE PLAINS AND UPPER MS VLY TO NEW ENGLAND. AT THE SURFACE...WAVY FRONT WILL BE SITUATED FROM NEW ENGLAND ACROSS THE SRN GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. ERN PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY... WHILE WRN PORTION MOVES NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER MS VLY AHEAD OF EJECTING UPPER TROUGH. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR TSTM CLUSTERS THAT WILL TRAVERSE FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ...WRN SD/NEB THROUGH MID MS VLY TO LWR GRT LKS/MID ATL... TIMING AND LOCATION OF TSTM COMPLEXES WILL CONTINUE TO BE DIFFICULT. UNCERTAINTIES WILL ARISE OWING TO THE PRECISE TIMING OF LOW AMPLITUDE IMPULSES AND INFLUENCES OF THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER CAPPING ALONG THE FRONT. WHILE A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE EVENT MAY BE POSSIBLE ANYWHERE ALONG THE FRONT...IT IS TOO EARLY/ UNCERTAIN TO HONE IN ON A SPECIFIC SIGNIFICANT PROBABILITY THREAT. A FEW MCS/S MAY BE ONGOING TO START THE PERIOD: /1/ MID-UPPER OH VLY.../2/ UPPER MS VLY AND /3/ ALONG-N OF THE MO RVR IN THE DAKS. THE STRONGEST TSTM CLUSTERS WITH HAIL/GUSTY WINDS WILL PROBABLY BE LOCATED IN THE UPPER MS VLY AND THE NRN PLAINS ALONG THE NOSE OF 50-55 KT LLJ AXES. THESE TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE ELEVATED WITH AMPLE CLOUD LAYER SHEAR/INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT PERIODIC SEVERE THREATS CONTINUING FROM LATE IN THE DAY 1 PERIOD. SURFACE BASED TSTMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE OH VLY/MID-ATLANTIC FRIDAY AFTERNOON. STRONGEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE MASON-DIXON LINE. BUT...MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD HAVE RECOVERED TO 6.5-7.0 C/KM SUGGESTING A FEW STORMS MAY POSE A HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREAT. MEANWHILE...PORTION OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST /WRN OH-SRN LOWER MI-NRN IND/ INTO THE UPPER MS VLY /WI/ COULD BE A FOCUS FOR SURFACE BASED TSTMS. CINH WILL BE GREATER ALONG THIS PORTION OF THE FRONT...BUT IF DEVELOPMENT CAN OCCUR...VERTICAL SHEAR OF 45 KTS...MODEST DIRECTIONAL/SPEED SHEAR IN THE LOWER LEVELS...AND 8 C/KM MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND A TORNADO OR TWO. FARTHER WEST...SURFACE BASED TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS EVEN MORE UNCERTAIN ACROSS IA/MN/ERN NEB. H7 TEMPERATURES NEAR 10C AND WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT/OUTFLOW SUGGESTS THAT TSTMS MAY HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME INITIATING. TSTMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO INITIATE ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS /WRN SD-WRN NEB/ ALONG A LEE-TROUGH/WARM FRONT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT COMBINATION OF STRONG HEATING...MOIST LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR TSTM INITIATION BY MID AFTERNOON. SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY GIVEN VERTICAL SHEAR OF 45-50 KTS AND NEARLY DRY-ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES. DURING THE EVENING...ACTIVITY SHOULD CONGEAL INTO A MCS AND COULD FORWARD PROPAGATE RAPIDLY INTO THE MID MO VLY OVERNIGHT WITH DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL. IT IS CONCEIVABLE THAT THIS COMPLEX COULD JOIN WITH THE ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS ALONG THE LLJ ACROSS THE UPPER MS VLY BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. ...SRN HIGH PLAINS... ALL ETAKF MEMBERS OF THE 09Z SREF SUGGEST THAT ISOLD TSTMS COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE ACROSS SWRN KS/WRN OK AND W TX FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE RSM/ETA/OPNL ETA DO NOT CONVECT. STRONGEST CONVERGENCE APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE ACROSS THE KS/OK/NW TX PORTION OF THE DRYLINE. GIVEN STRONG HEATING THE CAP COULD BE BREACHED WHERE CONVERGENCE IS SUFFICIENT. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE ENOUGH FOR SUPERCELLS AND LARGE HAIL COULD OCCUR WITH THESE STORMS. WILL MAINTAIN LOW PROBABILISTIC SEVERE ALL THE WAY TO THE SWRN TX MOUNTAINS...THOUGH THE HIGHEST THREAT WILL LIKELY REMAIN ALONG NRN PORTION OF THE DRYLINE. ..RACY.. 05/20/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri May 21 07:45:33 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 21 May 2004 02:45:33 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200405210746.i4L7k3e19054@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 210743 SWODY2 SPC AC 210741 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0241 AM CDT FRI MAY 21 2004 VALID 221200Z - 231200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NE PBG 25 ENE BML BHB ...CONT... 25 SSW JFK PIT MIE BLV VIH EMP GLD AKO CYS DGW GCC 50 NNE 81V PHP ANW 40 NW OFK OSC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM SSI AQQ ...CONT... 45 SE GPT LUL CBM MSL BNA BWG OWB PAH POF UNO JLN 40 NNE PNC 50 SSE DRT ...CONT... 45 SW P07 FST DDC LIC DEN LAR RWL RKS EVW EKO WMC 4LW RDM 10 NW DLS 50 ENE BLI ...CONT... 45 NE CTB HVR GDV 55 SSW JMS 50 SSW DLH ANJ ...CONT... 50 WNW 3B1 45 SSE HUL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS EWD ACROSS MID-UPPER MS VALLEY...GREAT LAKES...NEW ENGLAND.... ...SYNOPSIS... IN MID-UPPER LEVELS...MEAN WRN TROUGH AND ERN RIDGE PATTERN IS FCST TO CONTINUE THROUGH DAY-2 PERIOD...BUT WITH SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE ADJUSTMENTS. WRN STATES TROUGH WILL DEAMPLIFY AS SEVERAL PERTURBATIONS EJECT NEWD ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN ROCKIES AND PLAINS...AMIDST BROAD FETCH OF SWLY FLOW. 00Z SHORT-RANGE GUIDANCE AND 21Z SREF OUTPUT ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT THAT ONE OR TWO OF THESE LOWER-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL EJECT NEWD OVER CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE... PRONOUNCED MID-UPPER CYCLONE SHOULD EVOLVE OVER PACIFIC NW FROM SPEED MAXIMA NOW DIGGING SEWD AROUND NERN PERIPHERY OF GULF OF AK RIDGE. AT SFC...CYCLONE SHOULD BE LOCATED INVOF SRN NE/SRN NEB EARLY IN PERIOD...ALONG BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT SHOULD SAG SWD INTO KS DURING DAY. FARTHER E...SYNOPTIC FRONT SHOULD BE QUASISTATIONARY AND ALIGNED PARALLEL TO DEEP-TROPOSPHERIC MEAN FLOW...FROM MO/IA BORDER REGION ENEWD ACROSS SRN/ERN GREAT LAKES AREA AND NEW ENGLAND. WEAK FRONTAL-WAVE CYCLONE MAY RIPPLE EWD ACROSS PA/NY/NEW ENGLAND DURING LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. ...GREAT PLAINS TO UPPER MIDWEST... GREATEST SEVERE PROBABILITIES ARE CONCENTRATED NEAR AND NE OF SFC LOW -- WHERE COMBINATION OF LIFT...SHEAR AND RELATIVELY WEAK CINH ARE MOST CONDUCIVE FOR RAPID AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT. ONCE AGAIN...LARGE TO EXTREME BUOYANCY IS LIKELY OVER LOWER MO VALLEY REGION NEAR FRONTAL ZONE...WITH SFC DEW POINTS UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S F AND STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE 3500-4500 J/KG. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ALONG FRONT WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS WITH 40-50 KT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. SEVERE MCS MAY EVOLVE FROM THIS ACTIVITY AND MOVE ACROSS MID-UPPER MS VALLEY AFTER DARK. SOME SIGNIFICANT SEVERE IS POSSIBLE GIVEN ADEQUATE SHEAR AND SUCH LARGE INSTABILITY...BUT MESOSCALE UNCERTAINTIES PRECLUDE MORE EMPHATIC CATEGORICAL RISK ATTM. POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW AND ASSOCIATED MOIST ADVECTION AND ASCENT MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SEVERE TSTM FORMATION OVER SWRN SD AND ERN WY...PERHAPS AS FAR S AS NEB PANHANDLE AND AS FAR N AS MT FOOTHILLS. THOUGH LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BE RATHER WEAK...STRONGLY CURVED HODOGRAPHS AND AT LEAST MARGINAL DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL POTENTIAL. BECAUSE OF STRONG CAPPING AND POTENTIAL VERY HIGH LCL FOR ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES FORM...MORE MARGINAL/CONDITIONAL SEVERE PROBABILITIES EXIST DURING LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ALONG DRYLINE...FROM CENTRAL KS SSWWD ACROSS W TX. ACTIVITY WOULD BE STRONGLY TIED TO DIABATIC SFC HEATING AND NOT LONG-LIVED. ...GREAT LAKES STATES TO NEW ENGLAND... SCATTERED TSTMS IN MCS CLUSTERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT PERIOD...TRACKING EWD TO ESEWD ACROSS THIS SWATH. THIS INCLUDES POSSIBILITY THAT SEVERE MCS MAY BE ONGOING AT 22/12Z. MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WIND. DERECHO EVENT IS POSSIBLE FROM AFTERNOON ONWARD INTO OVERNIGHT HOURS...HOWEVER MESOSCALE UNCERTAINTIES PRECLUDE MORE CONCENTRATED CORRIDOR OF PROBABILITIES ATTM. IN BETWEEN PRE-EXISTING COMPLEXES AND INVOF SFC FRONTAL ZONE... AFTERNOON/EVENING DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY WITH BOWS AND A FEW SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE. ASIDE FROM OUTFLOW POOLS...FLOW SHOULD BE NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL IN WARM SECTOR...AMIDST 1500-2000 J/KG AFTERNOON MLCAPE. FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD BE MODULATED ON MESOSCALE BY ONE OR MORE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES REMAINING FROM DAY 1 AND/OR EARLY MORNING DAY-2 MCS ACTIVITY. THIS LENDS SOME UNCERTAINTY TO LATITUDINAL POSITIONING OF EFFECTIVE FRONT...AND THEREFORE STRENGTH OF MIDLEVEL FLOW AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AVAILABLE TO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. IN GENERAL TWO REGIMES WILL BE MOST SUITABLE FOR BOTH SUPERCELL POTENTIAL AND SFC-BASED BOW ECHO PROPAGATION -- 1. AREA E OF FRONTAL-WAVE LOW WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IS BACKED BY ISALLOBARIC FORCING AND 2. ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FAVORABLY ALIGNED FOR RIGHT MOTION ...INTERIOR NWRN STATES... WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS POSSIBLE DURING AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING PRIMARILY E OF CASCADES...INCLUDING SNAKE RIVER VALLEY REGION...AS INSOLATION AND OROGRAPHIC ASCENT WEAKEN CINH. STRONG LARGE SCALE COOLING/ASCENT ALOFT...COMBINED WITH SFC DIABATIC HEATING AND 35-50 KT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...MAY SUPPORT WIND/HAIL NEAR SEVERE LEVELS FROM A FEW STORMS. MLCAPE UP TO 500 J/KG POSSIBLE AMIDST 8-9 DEG C/KM MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES. ..EDWARDS.. 05/21/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri May 21 17:36:02 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 21 May 2004 12:36:02 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200405211736.i4LHaUe11936@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 211734 SWODY2 SPC AC 211732 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1232 PM CDT FRI MAY 21 2004 VALID 221200Z - 231200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE SBY 45 SW DCA 15 ENE PKB 15 ENE IND 25 N ALN 35 ESE STJ 30 S MHK 10 SW ICT 25 WNW P28 40 S EAR 25 WNW MCK 30 ENE AKO 30 NE CYS 35 E DGW 20 SSE 81V 30 WSW REJ PHP ANW 60 WSW YKN 30 NW OTG 10 ENE OSC ...CONT... 35 NE PBG 25 ENE BML BHB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NE CTB HVR GDV 55 SSW JMS 50 SSW DLH ANJ ...CONT... 50 WNW 3B1 45 SSE HUL ...CONT... SSI AQQ ...CONT... 45 SE GPT LUL CBM MSL 35 NE BNA 45 ENE BWG 35 E OWB 50 NNE PAH 50 W MDH 15 ESE VIH 35 S SZL 40 NNE PNC 15 NW SPS 55 SW SJT 45 NW DRT ...CONT... 55 SSW MRF 30 NW FST 40 E PVW 40 SSE DDC 40 W RSL 30 N HLC 35 N HLC 40 NW GLD 30 ESE DEN 15 W 4FC 25 W CAG 30 NNW VEL 50 NW PUC 10 SE DPG 20 SE EKO WMC 4LW RDM 10 NW DLS 50 ENE BLI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS ACROSS THE CORN BELT AND GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND/NRN MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE WRN STATES WILL CONTINUE TO DE AMPLIFY AND EJECT NEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS STATES. THIS WILL SUPPRESS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS MAINTAINING A BELT OF MODEST SWLY MIDLEVEL FLOW ARCING FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THE SURFACE...WAVY FRONT WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY FROM NEW ENGLAND WWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. LEE LOW OVER SRN NEB AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE NEWD ALONG THIS FRONT INTO THE CORN BELT BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE A DRYLINE MIXES EWD INTO CNTRL KS...WRN OK AND W TX. THE FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ...GREAT LAKES STATES TO NEW ENGLAND/NRN MID ATLANTIC REGION... SEVERAL POTENTIAL MCS/S WILL TRACK ESEWD ACROSS THE REGION THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. A SEVERE MCS...EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE CORN BELT THIS AFTERNOON...MAY BE ONGOING EARLY SATURDAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER OH VLY EWD INTO THE NRN MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION. THIS TSTM CLUSTER MAY CONTAIN DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. REGION WILL REMAIN ON SRN PERIPHERY OF STRONGEST WLYS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW. OTHER MCS/S WILL ORGANIZE UPSTREAM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND TRACK ESEWD THROUGH THE DAY. MCS TRACKS WILL LIKELY BE FARTHER NWD WITH TIME... SHIFTING INTO NY AND PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT SATURDAY. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTIES ON WHERE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL BE LOCATED FROM PRECEDING MCS/S MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE EXACT LATITUDINAL POSITION OF SEVERE THREATS. BUT...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SIGNIFICANT DAMAGING WINDS SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE BROAD CORRIDOR. ...PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS VLY... ANOTHER ACTIVE SEVERE DAY ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE REGION. DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE WHERE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL BE LOCATED FROM MCS/S THAT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE UPPER MS VLY EARLY IN THE DAY. PRIND THAT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND ACROSS NERN NEB AND SRN IA TO NRN IL AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. THIS BOUNDARY WILL TRANSLATE NWD DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH AIR MASS RAPIDLY RECOVERING. PRESENCE OF NEAR 70F SURFACE DEW POINTS BENEATH VERY STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES OF 4000-4500 J/KG. AS CINH WEAKENS DURING THE AFTERNOON...TSTMS SHOULD INITIATE VCNTY SURFACE LOW OVER ECNTRL/SERN NEB AND WRN IA. VERTICAL SHEAR AND MAGNITUDE OF BUOYANCY WILL LIKELY LEAD TO RAPID GROWTH INTO SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES POSSIBLE. PARTS OF THE AREA MAY BE UPGRADED TO MDT RISK AS BOUNDARY/WAVE CYCLONE PLACEMENT BECOMES MORE CERTAIN. THIS ACTIVITY WILL THEN MOVE EWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...ORGANIZING INTO A DAMAGING WIND EVENT OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW AND ASSOCIATED MOIST ADVECTION AND ASCENT MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SEVERE TSTM FORMATION OVER SWRN SD AND ERN WY...PERHAPS AS FAR S AS NEB PANHANDLE AND AS FAR N AS MT FOOTHILLS. THOUGH LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BE RATHER WEAK...STRONGLY CURVED HODOGRAPHS AND AT LEAST MARGINAL DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL POTENTIAL. BECAUSE OF STRONG CAPPING AND POTENTIAL VERY HIGH LCL FOR ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES FORM...MORE MARGINAL/CONDITIONAL SEVERE PROBABILITIES EXIST DURING LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ALONG DRYLINE...FROM CENTRAL KS SSWWD ACROSS W TX. ACTIVITY WOULD BE STRONGLY TIED TO DIABATIC SFC HEATING AND NOT LONG-LIVED. ...INTERIOR NWRN STATES... A FEW TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...MAINLY E OF CASCADES...INCLUDING SNAKE RIVER VALLEY REGION...AS INSOLATION AND OROGRAPHIC ASCENT WEAKEN CINH. STRONG LARGE SCALE COOLING/ASCENT ALOFT...COMBINED WITH HEATING AND 35-50 KT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...MAY SUPPORT WIND/HAIL NEAR SEVERE LEVELS. ..RACY.. 05/21/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat May 22 07:35:24 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 22 May 2004 02:35:24 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200405220735.i4M7Zte03952@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 220734 SWODY2 SPC AC 220732 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0232 AM CDT SAT MAY 22 2004 VALID 231200Z - 241200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NW MSS 10 SSW BML PWM 30 NE BOS EWB 15 NE ISP 15 NW TTN 25 S IPT 35 WNW PIT 20 S IND 35 WNW CGI 35 W TBN 25 WNW IRK RST 30 WNW EAU 65 E MQT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE ANW CDR 55 WNW CDR 10 SW 81V 30 SSE 4BQ 25 NNW REJ 20 S Y22 15 NNW HON 30 SE MHE 35 SW YKN 20 SE ANW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW 3B1 15 WSW BHB ...CONT... 15 NNE MLB 45 N PIE 25 E TLH 35 N ABY 30 E ANB 15 NNE HSV 35 SE MKL 40 S JBR 25 NW LIT 40 S PGO 20 SW PRX 40 SSW DUA 45 WSW ADM 35 S OKC 25 SSW PNC 45 E ICT FLV 30 NW FNB 35 WSW EAR 20 SSE SNY 30 NW FCL 25 W VEL 35 ESE EKO 45 E BNO 25 E PDX 15 SW SEA 70 E BLI 70 WNW FCA 20 E HLN 40 NNE BIL 25 NNW GDV 40 N BIS 55 WNW AXN 15 SSE BRD 80 ENE ELO. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID MS VALLEY TO THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SD AREA.... ...SYNOPSIS... A BROAD MID-UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT BASIN...WITH TWO EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PROVIDING THE PRIMARY FOCI FOR SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT ON SUNDAY. THE FIRST TROUGH...NOW OVER THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY...WILL EJECT ENEWD TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE NEWD OVER THE MID MS VALLEY TO THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH...NOW DIGGING SWD OVER SRN BRITISH COLUMBIA AND WA...WILL ROTATE EWD FROM THE NRN ROCKIES TO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS LATE IN THE PERIOD. ...MID MS VALLEY TO THE GREAT LAKES... A SURFACE LOW INVOF NRN IA/SE MN EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL DEVELOP NEWD ACROSS WI TO UPPER MI BY SUNDAY NIGHT. ONE OR MORE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS MAY BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD ACROSS NERN IA/WI IN ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE LOW...AND THIS CONVECTION MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS DURING THE DAY FROM CENTRAL/NRN WI TO UPPER MI. FARTHER S...ADDITIONAL STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG A TRAILING SURFACE TROUGH/WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS SE WI/NRN IL AND SPREAD EWD/NEWD TO NRN INDIANA AND LOWER MI. 50-70 KT SWLY MID-UPPER FLOW AND MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY WILL FAVOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THIS AREA. BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT THE THREAT OF A FEW TORNADOES...THOUGH PRONOUNCED BACKING WIND WITH HEIGHT IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER DOES NOT APPEAR IDEAL FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS. OTHERWISE...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BEFORE THE SEVERE THREAT DIMINISHES. FARTHER S...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BECOMES PROGRESSIVELY LESS CERTAIN FROM SRN MO TO ERN OK ALONG THE WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH...AND IN THE WAKE OF THE EJECTING MID LEVEL TROUGH. ANY STORMS THAT FORM ACROSS THIS AREA WILL LIKELY BE TIED TO AFTERNOON HEATING AND ISOLATED IN COVERAGE. IF STORMS DO FORM...DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL FAVOR THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND A FEW DAMAGING GUSTS. ...NRN PA/NY/INTERIOR SRN NEW ENGLAND... THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE LOCATION OF THE EFFECTIVE SURFACE FRONT GIVEN THE INFLUENCE OF MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS ...ONE OF WHICH MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY MORNING. THE 00Z MODELS SUGGEST THAT THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE MORE WIDELY SCATTERED AND IN SMALLER CLUSTERS THAN PREVIOUS DAYS GIVEN A TENDENCY FOR SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER PA/NY DURING THE DAY AND IN THE WAKE OF ANY EARLY CONVECTION ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. STILL...MODERATE INSTABILITY AND 30-40 KT L0W-MID LEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT A THREAT OF STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP DURING THE DAY ALONG RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES OR THE SURFACE FRONT. ...NRN HIGH PLAINS... LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED ACROSS THE DAKOTAS/NEB IN THE WAKE OF THE FIRST EJECTING TROUGH. HOWEVER...LEE CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS /INVOF WRN NEB OR SW SD AND IN ADVANCE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NRN ROCKIES/ WILL PROVIDE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM NERN WY ACROSS WRN SD TO NW NEB. STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MUCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 1000 J/KG...WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR. A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...POSSIBLY EVOLVING INTO A SMALL MCS ACROSS SD OR NRN NEB OVERNIGHT. ...MID ATLANTIC REGION... A MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL PERSIST ALONG AND E OF A DIFFUSE SURFACE TROUGH E OF THE APPALACHIANS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM THE INTERIOR CAROLINAS TO VA...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS AND SOME HAIL. ..THOMPSON.. 05/22/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun May 23 07:38:18 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 23 May 2004 02:38:18 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200405230738.i4N7cme08891@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 230736 SWODY2 SPC AC 230734 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0234 AM CDT SUN MAY 23 2004 VALID 241200Z - 251200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ESE UIN 45 NE MKC 15 ENE FNB 40 S SUX SUX 30 SSW SPW 20 SW MCW 45 NW DBQ 40 W JVL 15 S RFD 30 NE PIA 10 ESE UIN. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE FNT 25 SSE DTW 35 WNW DAY 45 SW LUK 25 NW TYS 40 SW CSV 30 W HOP 25 S TBN 30 NNW JLN 15 WSW BIE 65 W YKN 15 SW BKX 25 NE RST 20 NNW MBS 30 ENE FNT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE NEL ILG 10 S IPT 20 NW ITH 30 NNE SYR 30 WSW SLK 20 NW RUT 30 W EEN 25 WSW BDL 35 E NEL 25 ESE NEL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW DAB CTY 35 WSW TLH 20 SW TOI 20 S CBM 35 SW UOX 25 W LIT 25 ESE MLC 25 S ADM 30 W SEP 45 N JCT 35 W SJT 15 S BGS 45 NNE BGS 40 NNW CDS 50 ENE GAG 30 NNE P28 RSL 30 SSW HLC 55 ENE LAA LHX 30 S MTJ 35 ESE 4HV 45 ESE ELY 35 NNE BAM 70 NNW LOL 35 SW TVL 35 NW SAC 20 ENE ACV 25 NNE OTH 25 ENE HQM 10 SSE SEA 20 WSW YKM 30 NW PDT 35 NE S80 35 W MQM 20 WNW WRL 50 NNW DGW 15 N BFF 25 SSE AIA 20 SSE MHN 20 WSW ANW 20 WNW PIR JMS 15 ENE GFK 30 E INL ...CONT... 15 NNE EFK 30 ENE PSM. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF IA...NRN MO...AND NW IL.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE SLGT RISK AND EXTENDING INTO TN/KY AND LOWER MI.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR ERN NY AND PA.... ...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM EPISODE POSSIBLE ACROSS IA AND ADJACENT STATES... ...MIDWEST AREA... ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE MIDWEST THIS PERIOD AS ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EJECTS EWD FROM THE HIGH PLAINS TO THE MID-UPPER MS VALLEY. A REMNANT LEE CYCLONE ACROSS NEB/KS WILL DEVELOP SWD ACROSS KS WHILE A WAVE DEVELOPS NEWD ACROSS IA TO WI ALONG THE PATH OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S/ WILL SURGE NWD FROM MONDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN NEB AND IA...BENEATH VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE NET RESULT WILL BE STRONG TO EXTREME INSTABILITY IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS NE KS/ERN NEB/IA/NRN MO...WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 3000-4500 J/KG EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP BY MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON INVOF NE NEB/SE SD/NW IA AND SPREAD EWD/SEWD ACROSS IA DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 40-50 KT...THE AFOREMENTIONED INSTABILITY...MOIST LOW LEVELS...AND LOOPING HODOGRAPHS WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ALL APPEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS WITH STRONG TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL. ADDITIONALLY...CONVECTION MAY MERGE AND GROW UPSCALE DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING INTO AN MCS WITH DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS ERN IA/NRN MO/NRN IL...AND PERHAPS REACHING LOWER MI BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. ...NE STATES... A PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO PA/NY DURING THE AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLONE ALONG THE PERSISTENT BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS NY/NEW ENGLAND. A FEED OF MODERATE INSTABILITY FROM THE SW...ALONG WITH SUBSTANTIAL SPEED SHEAR...WILL SUPPORT A THREAT OF SUPERCELLS AND EMBEDDED BOWING SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL FROM MIDDAY THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ...OK/NW TX AREA... THE REGION OF STRONGER LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND MORE WIDESPREAD DEEP CONVECTION WILL REMAIN WELL N/NE OF THIS AREA. HOWEVER...STRONG AFTERNOON HEATING/MIXING ALONG A WEAK DRYLINE MAY ALLOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO. IF THUNDERSTORMS FORM...INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR COULD SUPPORT A THREAT OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL OR STRONG OUTFLOW GUSTS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. ...NE CO AREA... NELY UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS NE CO BY MONDAY EVENING. THOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND STEEP LAPSE RATES MAY SUPPORT AN ISOLATED/MARGINAL THREAT OF HAIL AND WIND. ..THOMPSON.. 05/23/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun May 23 17:36:53 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 23 May 2004 12:36:53 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200405231737.i4NHbMe30938@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 231735 SWODY2 SPC AC 231733 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1233 PM CDT SUN MAY 23 2004 VALID 241200Z - 251200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE UIN 40 SSE P35 15 ENE FNB 40 S SUX SUX 30 SSW SPW 20 SW MCW 45 NW DBQ 30 ESE DBQ 40 SW RFD 15 WSW BMI 40 ESE UIN. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WNW ACY 30 ENE CXY 15 NNW IPT 25 NNW JHW 60 N ROC 30 WSW SLK 20 NW RUT 30 W EEN 20 SSE BDL 15 ESE ISP. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE FNT 25 SSE DTW 35 WNW DAY 45 SW LUK 25 NW TYS 40 SW CSV 30 W HOP 25 S TBN 20 N JLN 20 E ICT 10 SE HUT 10 WSW CNK 30 NNE GRI 65 W YKN 15 SW BKX 25 NE RST 20 NNW MBS 30 ENE FNT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW DAB CTY 35 WSW TLH 20 SW TOI 20 S CBM 35 SW UOX 25 W LIT 25 ESE MLC 25 S ADM 30 W SEP 45 N JCT 35 W SJT 15 S BGS 45 NNE BGS 45 E AMA 40 ESE LBL 30 ENE DDC RSL 30 SSW HLC 55 ENE LAA LHX 30 S MTJ 35 ESE 4HV 45 ESE ELY 35 NNE BAM 70 NNW LOL 35 SW TVL 35 NW SAC 20 ENE ACV 25 NNE OTH 25 ENE HQM 10 SSE SEA 20 WSW YKM 30 NW PDT 35 NE S80 35 W MQM 20 WNW WRL 50 NNW DGW 15 N BFF 25 SSE AIA 20 SSE MHN 20 WSW ANW 20 WNW PIR JMS 15 ENE GFK 30 E INL ...CONT... 15 NNE EFK 30 ENE PSM. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF IA...EXTREME NRN MO AND EXTREME NWRN IL... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS EWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND LOWER OH VLY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NY...NERN PA AND WRN NEW ENGLAND... ...SYNOPSIS... THE MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE UPPER MS VLY WILL TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND TO NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY AS UPSTREAM IMPULSE EJECTS EWD INTO THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS BY MONDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEAD TROUGH WILL CROSS CNTRL NY BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH A TRAILING FRONT THROUGH THE OH VLY. TAIL END OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP NWD INTO ERN NEB...SRN IA/NRN MO AS ANOTHER WAVE DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE NEWD INTO THE UPPER MS VLY BY EARLY TUESDAY WITH A TRAILING FRONT EXPECTED TO SURGE SEWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS. ...MID MO VLY TO THE UPPER MIDWEST/CNTRL GREAT LAKES AREA... POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ANOTHER ACTIVE/SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE WITH VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND STRONG TORNADOES ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MO VLY INTO THE UPPER MS VLY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. H5 HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD BEGIN SPREADING EWD INTO THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS AHEAD OF THE UPSTREAM IMPULSE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE LOW LEVEL RESPONSE WILL BEGIN LATE TONIGHT AND BEGIN ADVECTING MID-UPPER 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS NWWD INTO ERN NEB AND SWRN IA MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO RAPID DESTABILIZATION WITH MLCAPES AOA 3500 J/KG. SOME CONCERN EXISTS ON THE RISK OF ELEVATED CONVECTION RETARDING HEATING ALONG/NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...BUT CONSENSUS AMONG THE MODELS LENDS SOME CONFIDENCE IN STRONG INSTABILITY AXIS DEVELOPING NWD INTO THE MID MO VLY BY LATE AFTERNOON. AS CINH IS ERODED BY HEATING...TSTM INITIATION SHOULD OCCUR SOMEWHERE OVER ERN NEB/SERN SD AND QUICKLY EVOLVE INTO SUPERCELLS GIVEN 50 KTS OF VERTICAL SHEAR. VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. A RISK OF STRONG TORNADOES WILL OCCUR WITH INITIAL STORMS FROM ERN NEB INTO CNTRL/SRN IA WHERE HODOGRAPHS WILL EXHIBIT VERY FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL CURVATURE VCNTY THE WARM FRONT AND LOWERING LCLS. A TREND TOWARD MORE OF A DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL LIKELY OCCUR OVERNIGHT AS STORMS CONGEAL INTO A MCS AND MOVE/DEVELOP EWD THROUGH IA/EXTREME SRN WI AND EVENTUALLY TOWARD LOWER MI...NRN IL AND NRN IND. ...ERN KS/NRN MO SWWD INTO OK... ADDITIONAL TSTMS MAY TEND TO DEVELOP/BACKBUILD ALONG SEWD MOVING COLD FRONT/DRYLINE INTERSECTION FROM NRN MO/ERN KS SWWD INTO NCNTRL OK MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY DEVELOP INTO SUPERCELLS DURING THE EVENING...BUT LIKELY TREND TOWARD CLUSTERS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS DURING THE NIGHT AS THE LLJ INCREASES. OTHER STORMS...POSSIBLY ISOLD SUPERCELLS...COULD DEVELOP SWD ALONG THE DRYLINE INTO WRN OK LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH LARGE HAIL. THESE MAY MERGE WITH THE SWD MOVING STORMS LATER IN THE EVENING ACROSS NCNTRL OK/SERN KS. ...LWR OH/TN VLYS... TSTMS COULD DEVELOP ALONG RETREATING WARM FRONT ACROSS THE LWR OH/TN VLYS AND COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THIS IS A CONDITIONAL SLGT RISK GIVEN THAT SHORT TERM MODELS DIFFER ON PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT. STRONG INSTABILITY IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND GIVEN THAT THE REGION IS ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF THE WLYS...A SEVERE STORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE. ...NY/NCNTRL PA AND INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND... MODEST INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP VCNTY SURFACE LOW AS STRONG MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES BY DURING PEAK HEATING. TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP UPSTREAM ACROSS ONTARIO AND THEN EWD ALONG THE TRACK OF THE LOW/WARM FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS AND BOWING LINE SEGMENTS THAT MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL AND A RISK OF A TORNADO OR TWO. ...NERN CO... NELY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION BY MONDAY EVENING. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY HIGH...BUT IF A STORM DEVELOPS AND SURVIVES...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WILL AUGMENT HAIL/WIND PRODUCTION. ...SERN STATES... WDLY SCT TSTMS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP VCNTY SRN APPALACHIANS AND ALONG LEFT-OVER BOUNDARIES DURING THE LATE MORNING-AFTERNOON. WEAK FLOW WILL KEEP ANY SEVERE THREAT PULSE IN NATURE WITH RISKS OF DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL AS THE STORMS COLLAPSE. ..RACY.. 05/23/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon May 24 08:00:01 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 24 May 2004 03:00:01 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200405240800.i4O80Te11523@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 240757 SWODY2 SPC AC 240756 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0256 AM CDT MON MAY 24 2004 VALID 251200Z - 261200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW SYR 40 S UCA 20 NNW PHL NHK 35 NW RIC 10 E SSU 25 NNE BNA FSM 40 SW TUL 10 E PNC OJC 30 WSW CGX 60 NNE MTC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NE ISN 30 NNW DIK 20 NW REJ 50 SSE GCC CYS 25 ESE DEN 30 WSW COS 45 S MTJ 30 E BCE 50 W P38 35 SE BIH 30 NNE MER 60 NW TVL 25 W TWF 25 WSW 3DU 70 NW HVR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 N DAB 10 NW CTY 35 SSE CSG 20 W ANB 20 NNW TUP 35 W PBF 40 SW PRX 30 S FTW 30 SE JCT 65 SSE DRT ...CONT... 105 S MRF 50 S LBB 20 W GAG 10 SW MHK 35 W CID 25 SW LNR GRB 40 NE RHI 40 SSE DLH 45 WSW HIB 15 WNW INL ...CONT... 25 N PBG 25 E BID. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MO AREA ENEWD TO THE PA AREA.... ...SYNOPSIS... A NRN STREAM TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY REGION...WHILE A BELT OF RELATIVELY FAST WSWLY FLOW PERSISTS FROM THE SRN ROCKIES TO THE OH VALLEY. IN ADVANCE OF THE NRN STREAM TROUGH...AN OCCLUDED SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEWD FROM NRN MN TO ONTARIO...WHILE THE PRIMARY LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE MOVES SLOWLY SEWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY TO LOWER MI. A WARM/MOIST AIR MASS WILL PERSIST FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO THE OH VALLEY TO THE SE OF THIS SURFACE FRONT...WHERE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S WILL BE COMMON. THESE SURFACE CONDITIONS WILL COMBINE WITH ROUGHLY 7 C/KM MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO SUPPORT MODERATE INSTABILITY OVER A BROAD SWATH IN THE WARM SECTOR. THE PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY FOR THIS OUTLOOK CENTERS ON THE EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION FROM LATE DAY 1 INTO EARLY DAY 2...AND ITS INFLUENCE ON THE SURFACE BOUNDARIES LIKELY TO FOCUS CONVECTIVE INITIATION. A SURFACE WAVE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ENEWD FROM THE MS VALLEY TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY TOMORROW NIGHT...THOUGH THIS FEATURE SEEMS TO BE RELATED TO A CONVECTIVELY INDUCED/ENHANCED MID LEVEL SPEED MAX IN EACH MODEL. GIVEN THE INHERENT UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THIS SORT OF FEEDBACK...WILL OPT TO INCLUDE A RELATIVELY BROAD SWATH OF MODEST SEVERE PROBABILITIES. THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AND MAINLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES WITH SUBSTANTIAL SPEED SHEAR WILL SUPPORT BOWING SEGMENTS WITH A WIND DAMAGE THREAT...AND POSSIBLY A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH BOTH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ..THOMPSON.. 05/24/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon May 24 17:28:54 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 24 May 2004 12:28:54 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200405241729.i4OHTKe27822@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 241727 SWODY2 SPC AC 241725 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1225 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2004 VALID 251200Z - 261200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NW ART MSV 25 SSW ACY ...CONT... ILM AVL DYR FSM MLC 55 NNE ABI 75 S CDS 20 WSW CDS 35 NNE CDS END MKC BRL 20 NNW CGX 55 N MTC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE PBG BID ...CONT... DAB 15 SSE CTY CSG 20 W ANB TUP PBF 15 SE PRX 30 S FTW 30 SE JCT 65 SSE DRT ...CONT... 80 S MRF PVW 20 WSW TCC ALS CEZ 65 S BIH SCK 65 SE RBL OWY IDA 25 N DGW MHN MCK 55 SSW LAA 20 SE CAO 35 N AMA 60 S LBL CNK LNR 35 SE CWA 25 SW RHI 45 SE DLH 50 WSW HIB 20 NNW INL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS ENEWD ACROSS THE MIDDLE MS/OHIO/TN VALLEYS...EWD INTO THE PA/NY AREA SWD INTO NC.... ...SYNOPSIS... ANOTHER ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER DAY EXPECTED FROM PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS ENEWD ACROSS THE MIDDLE MS/OHIO/TN VALLEYS...EWD INTO THE PA/NY AREA SWD INTO NC. WSWLY FLOW AT 50-60 KT WILL COVER MUCH OF THE REGION WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING EWD INTO THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM SRN LOWER MI SWWD THROUGH MO INTO OK/NWRN TX BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ...MIDDLE MS VALLEY EWD ACROSS THE SRN GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY... CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN DEPENDING ON LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF CONVECTION/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM TONIGHTS CONVECTION. THE ETA/GFS ARE SIMILAR IN SUGGESTING CONVECTION SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS ERN KS/WRN MO AT 12Z NEAR/NORTH OF COLD FRONT IN ZONE OF STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION. THIS CONVECTION AND/OR ASSOCIATED BOUNDARIES SHOULD SPREAD ENEWD DURING THE DAY WITH STORMS INTENSIFYING AS THEY MOVE INTO A MODERATELY/STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. UNIDIRECTIONAL WSWLY FLOW ALOFT AND WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT IS SUGGESTIVE OF LINEAR STORMS/EMBEDDED BOWS MOVING EWD AT SPEEDS 40+ KT WITH WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY TO CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION AND LOCATION OF THE GREATEST THREAT ...WILL NOT UPGRADE TO MODERATE RISK ATTM. ...WRN NY/PA... ETA/GFS ARE CONSISTENT IN MOVING A LINE/BAND OF CONVECTION EWD INTO THE AREA AFTER 00Z. THIS SHOULD BE THE SAME STORMS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40-50 KT WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR THESE STORMS TO POSSIBLY PRODUCE WIND DAMAGE AS THEY MOVE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE ARE LOWER THAN ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...AS THE COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER MAY INHIBIT THE STRONGER DOWNDRAFTS FROM REACHING THE SURFACE. ...KY/TN/NC/VA... EXPECT CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS LATE TODAY/TONIGHT ACROSS THE MS RIVER VALLEY TO MOVE EWD INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY. MODELS ALSO SUGGEST A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. ALTHOUGH COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL WEST OF THE AREA...CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SHOULD PROVIDE FOCUS FOR NEW THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OR CONTINUATION OF OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY. DEEP LAYER OF 30-40 KT AND MLCAPES BETWEEN 2000-3000 J/KG SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND SCATTERED SEVERE HAIL. ...SRN PLAINS... COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY SWD THROUGH OK AND NWRN TX DURING THE DAY. A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS LIKELY TO BE LOCATED ALONG THE FRONT IN SWRN OK/WRN TX NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF THE COLD FRONT AND DRYLINE. STRONG HEATING IN THE WARM SECTOR AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE TRIPLE POINT AND FRONT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STORMS TO DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON. A STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND 30-40 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL/WIND DAMAGE. ..IMY.. 05/24/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon May 24 18:29:23 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 24 May 2004 13:29:23 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200405241829.i4OITle06985@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 241826 SWODY2 SPC AC 241725 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1225 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2004 VALID 251200Z - 261200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NW ART MSV 25 SSW ACY ...CONT... ILM AVL DYR FSM MLC 55 NNE ABI 75 S CDS 20 WSW CDS 35 NNE CDS END MKC BRL 20 NNW CGX 55 N MTC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE PBG BID ...CONT... DAB 15 SSE CTY CSG 20 W ANB TUP PBF 15 SE PRX 30 S FTW 30 SE JCT 65 SSE DRT ...CONT... 80 S MRF PVW 20 WSW TCC ALS CEZ 65 S BIH SCK 65 SE RBL OWY IDA 25 N DGW MHN MCK 55 SSW LAA 20 SE CAO 35 N AMA 60 S LBL CNK LNR 35 SE CWA 25 SW RHI 45 SE DLH 50 WSW HIB 20 NNW INL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS ENEWD ACROSS THE MIDDLE MS/OHIO/TN VALLEYS...EWD INTO THE PA/NY AREA SWD INTO NC.... ...SYNOPSIS... ANOTHER ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER DAY EXPECTED FROM PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS ENEWD ACROSS THE MIDDLE MS/OHIO/TN VALLEYS...EWD INTO THE PA/NY AREA SWD INTO NC. WSWLY FLOW AT 50-60 KT WILL COVER MUCH OF THE REGION WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING EWD INTO THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM SRN LOWER MI SWWD THROUGH MO INTO OK/NWRN TX BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ...MIDDLE MS VALLEY EWD ACROSS THE SRN GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY... CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN DEPENDING ON LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF CONVECTION/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM TONIGHTS CONVECTION. THE ETA/GFS ARE SIMILAR IN SUGGESTING CONVECTION SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS ERN KS/WRN MO AT 12Z NEAR/NORTH OF COLD FRONT IN ZONE OF STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION. THIS CONVECTION AND/OR ASSOCIATED BOUNDARIES SHOULD SPREAD ENEWD DURING THE DAY WITH STORMS INTENSIFYING AS THEY MOVE INTO A MODERATELY/STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. UNIDIRECTIONAL WSWLY FLOW ALOFT AND WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT IS SUGGESTIVE OF LINEAR STORMS/EMBEDDED BOWS MOVING EWD AT SPEEDS 40+ KT WITH WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY TO CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION AND LOCATION OF THE GREATEST THREAT ...WILL NOT UPGRADE TO MODERATE RISK ATTM. ...WRN NY/PA... ETA/GFS ARE CONSISTENT IN MOVING A LINE/BAND OF CONVECTION EWD INTO THE AREA AFTER 00Z. THIS SHOULD BE THE SAME STORMS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40-50 KT WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR THESE STORMS TO POSSIBLY PRODUCE WIND DAMAGE AS THEY MOVE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE ARE LOWER THAN ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...AS THE COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER MAY INHIBIT THE STRONGER DOWNDRAFTS FROM REACHING THE SURFACE. ...KY/TN/NC/VA... EXPECT CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS LATE TODAY/TONIGHT ACROSS THE MS RIVER VALLEY TO MOVE EWD INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY. MODELS ALSO SUGGEST A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. ALTHOUGH COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL WEST OF THE AREA...CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SHOULD PROVIDE FOCUS FOR NEW THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OR CONTINUATION OF OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY. DEEP LAYER OF 30-40 KT AND MLCAPES BETWEEN 2000-3000 J/KG SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND SCATTERED SEVERE HAIL. ...SRN PLAINS... COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY SWD THROUGH OK AND NWRN TX DURING THE DAY. A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS LIKELY TO BE LOCATED ALONG THE FRONT IN SWRN OK/WRN TX NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF THE COLD FRONT AND DRYLINE. STRONG HEATING IN THE WARM SECTOR AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE TRIPLE POINT AND FRONT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STORMS TO DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON. A STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND 30-40 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL/WIND DAMAGE. ..IMY.. 05/24/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue May 25 07:34:09 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 25 May 2004 02:34:09 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200405250734.i4P7YWe17050@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 250733 SWODY2 SPC AC 250731 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0231 AM CDT TUE MAY 25 2004 VALID 261200Z - 271200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WSW HSE 30 WNW SOP 55 NNE HSV 20 NE ADM 30 ESE CSM 40 S P28 35 W CNU 30 NW SDF 35 NNW CRW 20 S AOO 25 NNE CXY 20 ENE ABE 15 S JFK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE SSI 40 SSW AGS 15 ENE ATL 40 NE CBM 30 WSW PBF 15 W PRX 30 N DAL 45 SSW BWD 30 NW DRT 40 ESE P07 35 WSW P07 30 SW FST 15 N FST 55 SSW LBB 20 SSE PVW 10 S AMA 35 NNE CAO 30 NW TAD 25 NNE DRO 25 NE U17 25 N 4HV 60 N GJT 40 SW BFF 30 NE MHN 45 NNE BUB 10 NE OLU 35 SSE BIE 10 S FLV 15 WSW UIN 15 ESE FWA 35 SE DTW ...CONT... 40 N BML 25 NE LCI 20 SSE PSM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN PLAINS EWD TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.... ...SYNOPSIS... A NRN STREAM MID LEVEL TROUGH...NOW OVER THE NRN PLAINS...WILL MOVE EWD TO THE GREAT LAKES BY TONIGHT AND CONTINUE EWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND BY LATE WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SEWD TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ENEWD FROM THE NRN VA/PA AREA DURING THE DAY TOWARD SRN NEW ENGLAND. THIS SURFACE FRONT WILL STALL ALONG AN AXIS FROM OK TO KY DURING THE DAY...PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. ELSEWHERE...SOME SHALLOW CONVECTIVE SHOWERS MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES AREA...BUT VERY WEAK INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THAT THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL BE QUITE SMALL. FARTHER S...A SRN STREAM TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD OVER AZ...THOUGH L0W-MID LEVEL MOISTURE APPEARS TOO MARGINAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AREA. ...OK TO KY/TN... CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING EARLY INVOF OF THE SURFACE FRONT ACROSS THE ADJACENT AREAS OF OK/KS/MO/AR. MODERATE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALONG AND S OF THE BOUNDARY...WHILE SMALL SCALE SPEED MAXIMA WILL LIKELY TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS THIS AREA DURING THE DAY WITHIN A BELT OF 50-70 KT WLY FLOW. ONE OR MORE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS MAY EMERGE FROM THE MORNING ACTIVITY AND DEVELOP EWD ACROSS TN/KY DURING THE DAY WITH THE THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL/NE OK INTO NRN AR. DEEP LAYER SPEED SHEAR WILL BE QUITE STRONG OVER THIS AREA BENEATH 60-90 KT FLOW IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER...WITH STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS FAVORING SPLITTING SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL AND A FEW DAMAGING GUSTS SHOULD BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS. ...MID ATLANTIC REGION... CONSENSUS OF 00Z MODELS SUGGESTS THAT A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP ENEWD FROM THE NRN VA/PA AREA TOWARD SRN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY. NEAR AND S OF THE LOW TRACK...AND ALONG THE TRAILING SURFACE COLD FRONT...THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY SOME HAIL. THE SEVERE THREAT MAY CONTINUE TO BE LIMITED ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND BY THE COOL MARITIME INFLUENCE...WHILE WARM SECTOR INSTABILITY FARTHER S/SW IS SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING DURING THE DAY 1 PERIOD. ..THOMPSON.. 05/25/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue May 25 17:57:37 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 25 May 2004 12:57:37 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200405251757.i4PHvxO16409@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 251747 SWODY2 SPC AC 251744 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1244 PM CDT TUE MAY 25 2004 VALID 261200Z - 271200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE EWN RWI GSO 35 NW AND 25 NE RMG 15 SSE MKL PGO ADM 25 ESE CSM P28 RSL CNK TOP JEF BLV 25 SW LUK UNI PSB BGM ALB 30 E POU 10 SE JFK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S CRE AHN MSL HOT FTW DRT ...CONT... 90 SSE MRF 10 NNW INK 10 SSW HOB ROW ALM 10 W TCS SAF FMN 35 N GCN SGU U24 VEL BFF 10 SSE 9V9 ABR JMS ISN OLF COD IDA BOI MHS EUG YKM 50 NE 4OM ...CONT... 35 NNW APN MTW VOK ALO DSM IRK MTO 50 SE DAY FKL 35 NW ROC ...CONT... 40 N BML 25 NE LCI 20 SSE PSM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN/MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES...THE OHIO/ TENNESSEE VALLEYS...AND PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS/OZARKS.... UPPER TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG NORTHERN BRANCH OF WESTERLIES ...READILY EVIDENT IN LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA/NORTHEAST PACIFIC...IS PROGGED BY MODELS TO AMPLIFY SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...MODELS SUGGEST SOUTHERN BRANCH CLOSED LOW...CURRENTLY OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST...WILL ACCELERATE EASTWARD...LIKELY PROGRESSING THROUGH AT LEAST THE LOWER COLORADO VALLEY BY THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...INTENSE MID/UPPER JET IS ALREADY LIFTING OUT OF THE LOWER LATITUDE PACIFIC INTO THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU/CENTRAL ROCKIES AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS AROUND SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...AS ANOTHER JET MIGRATES AROUND SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF EASTERN CANADIAN NORTHERN BRANCH TROUGH. ...LOWER OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEY... AS SOUTHERN BRANCH JET STREAK TOPS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...MODELS SUGGEST BELT OF STRONGEST LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW DEVELOPING JUST TO ITS SOUTH...FROM PARTS OF WESTERN KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL APPALACHIANS DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS AND SUPERCELLS NEAR MAIN EAST-WEST BAROCLINIC ZONE...WHICH WILL EITHER REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY OR PRESS A BIT SOUTHWARD TO THE WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS DURING THE DAY. CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH REGARD TO AREAL COVERAGE/ INTENSITY OF THREAT...PRIMARILY DUE TO WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING ALONG FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AT 26/12Z. CLOUD COVER GENERATED BY THIS ACTIVITY MAY LIMIT INSOLATION...BUT WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS AROUND 70F...ENOUGH HEATING MAY OCCUR TO SUPPORT MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG. GIVEN DESTABILIZATION...LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW/ISENTROPIC ASCENT SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE PEAK HEATING...WITH HODOGRAPHS/LOW-LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS. EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF A LOW AMPLITUDE MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING LIKELY WILL SUPPORT INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. EVOLUTION OF MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE SYSTEM APPEARS POSSIBLE...WHICH MAY PERSIST WITH DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND PROGRESS EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES. ...NRN MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES INTO HUDSON/CHAMPLAIN VALLEY... ALTHOUGH BETTER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO AREAS NEAR/SOUTH OF SOUTHERN BRANCH JET...LINGERING MOISTURE AHEAD OF SURFACE FRONT PROGRESSING EAST OF THE LOWER LAKES SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH DAYTIME HEATING. AIDED BY FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND FAVORABLE SHEAR AHEAD OF NORTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH...SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LIKELY FROM PARTS OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA/NEW JERSEY INTO EASTERN NEW YORK STATE. ISOLATED SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE...BUT LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS APPEAR TO BE PRIMARY THREAT BEFORE ACTIVITY WEAKENS WITH LOSS OF HEATING DURING THE EVENING HOURS. ...CENTRAL PLAINS... ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL CAPPING WILL EVENTUALLY STRENGTHEN DOWNSTREAM OF SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM...MODELS SUGGEST INHIBITION MAY REMAIN WEAK ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED CONNECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN VERY MOIST WARM SECTOR ACROSS OKLAHOMA/SOUTHERN KANSAS. NEW DEVELOPMENT APPEARS POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS MID DAY...WHEN MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS. THOUGH LOW-LEVEL FLOW FIELDS MAY BE FAIRLY WEAK...MID/UPPER FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS PRIMARILY WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. BY WEDNESDAY EVENING/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS MID-LEVELS BEGIN TO WARM...PRIMARY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP NORTH OF QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS INTO THE OZARKS. ..KERR.. 05/25/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed May 26 07:50:50 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 26 May 2004 02:50:50 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200405260751.i4Q7p9O24117@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 260748 SWODY2 SPC AC 260746 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0246 AM CDT WED MAY 26 2004 VALID 271200Z - 281200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ERI 20 E FKL 30 SE HGR 10 NNE WAL ...CONT... 25 S EWN 20 NW CLT 20 SSE TYS 30 S BNA 20 NNE FTW 30 N DRT 30 N P07 20 NNE CDS 10 N FLV VOK 25 ENE MTW 30 WSW HTL 45 SSE OSC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NNE MOT 30 WSW BIS 15 SSW REJ 20 SSW CPR 45 WNW RWL 35 NNE DPG 25 ESE BAM 35 NW TVL 45 E UKI 35 WSW MHS 30 ENE PDX 20 ENE BLI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N PBG 30 S GON ...CONT... 20 ENE CRE 30 SE AND 25 ENE TUP 40 S PBF 50 SW TYR 50 SSE DRT ...CONT... 70 SSW P07 55 N MRF 35 ENE ELP 55 NE DUG 25 WNW SAD SOW 25 WSW GNT 10 SW SAF 30 NNW EHA 25 NW CNK 10 N MSP 40 S IWD 35 ESE ANJ. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO THE MID MS/OH VALLEYS...EWD TO PART OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.... ...SYNOPSIS... THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE BY TOMORROW AS A DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN PAC MOVES INLAND OVER THE PAC NW...AND A SRN STREAM TROUGH /NOW OVER SRN CA/ EJECTS ENEWD OVER AZ/NM TO W TX. DOWNSTREAM FROM THE PAC NW TROUGH...HEIGHTS WILL RISE OVER THE NRN PLAINS WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DOWNSTREAM AMPLIFICATION OF A TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE SURFACE...THE GREAT LAKES TROUGH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT...WHILE THE SURFACE FRONT NOW STRETCHING FROM NW TX TO THE OH VALLEY WILL LIFT NWD/NEWD AS A WEAK WARM FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER OH VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES. EXPECT THE FRONT TO MOVE LITTLE OVER THE TX/OK AREA WHILE WEAK CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS AT THE FRONT/DRYLINE INTERSECTION INVOF NW TX...IN ADVANCE OF THE EJECTING SRN STREAM TROUGH. ...SRN PLAINS... THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON ACROSS NW TX AND SPREAD ENEWD AS ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT INTO OK DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT. DEEP LAYER SPEED SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS ACROSS THIS AREA...THOUGH LOW-LEVEL FLOW/SHEAR SHOULD BE RELATIVELY WEAK DURING THE AFTERNOON GIVEN WEAK GRADIENTS AND ONLY WEAK CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS NW TX. THE COMBINATION OF DEEP LAYER SPEED SHEAR AND MODERATE INSTABILITY...ALONG WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF MULTIPLE STORM CLUSTERS...SUGGESTS THAT SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS. ...MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY... LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S/ WILL RETURN NWD/NEWD IN ADVANCE OF THE NRN STREAM TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT. DAYTIME HEATING AND ERN EXTENT OF AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER FROM THE ROCKIES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO POTENTIALLY MODERATE INSTABILITY AS FAR N AS SRN WI AND LOWER MI...WITH STRONG INSTABILITY EXPECTED OVER THE MO/IL AREA. A BROAD AREA WILL BE AT RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WITH STORM CLUSTERS AND/OR SUPERCELLS GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND 0-6 KM SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 50 KT...THOUGH IT IS DIFFICULT TO IDENTIFY A WELL-DEFINED FOCUS FOR INITIATION ATTM. ...ID AREA... LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL INCREASE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AS THE DEEP TROUGH REACHES THE PAC NW COAST BY TOMORROW NIGHT. PROFILES WILL ALSO BECOME MORE MOIST WITH TIME...SUPPORTING AN INCREASING THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING. THOUGH INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. ..THOMPSON.. 05/26/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed May 26 17:41:49 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 26 May 2004 12:41:49 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200405261742.i4QHg6O27590@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 261740 SWODY2 SPC AC 261738 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1238 PM CDT WED MAY 26 2004 VALID 271200Z - 281200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNW ROC ELM CXY WAL ...CONT... 25 S EWN RDU GSO HSS 30 S BNA 20 NNE FTW 60 NE P07 50 N BGS 20 NNE CDS LTS PNC EMP FLV DBQ 15 E JVL MBL 10 ENE APN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NE HVR MLS 4BQ 20 SSW CPR RKS DPG U31 20 NNW TVL RBL 35 WSW MHS 30 ENE PDX 20 ENE BLI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SSW P07 55 N MRF GDP ELP 10 NNE SAD INW FMN RSL FNB MCW MSP IWD 130 NE CMX ...CONT... 20 NNE PBG ORH 35 W ACK ...CONT... 15 NNE CRE GSP CHA MSL PBF TXK TPL 30 SSE DRT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MS/OH VALLEYS AND SRN GREAT LAKES INTO MID ATLANTIC STATES...AS WELL AS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN/CNTRL PLAINS.... LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE VERY SIMILAR WITH REGARD TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE-SCALE UPPER FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE NATION THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. UPPER TROUGH NOW OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA/ NORTHEAST PACIFIC IS PROGGED TO AMPLIFY AND DIG SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO PACIFIC COAST STATES BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. AS THIS OCCURS...A COUPLE OF SIGNIFICANT TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITHIN DOWNSTREAM SPLIT BRANCHES OF STRONGER WESTERLIES WILL ACCELERATE EASTWARD...LIKELY PROVIDING FORCING FOR A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN STATES. ...MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EASTWARD... IN NORTHERN BRANCH OF WESTERLIES...BROAD TROUGH WITH EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH REGARD TO DETAILS OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. HOWEVER...STRONG MID/UPPER JET IN BASE OF TROUGH...IN TANDEM WITH BROAD INTENSE ANTICYCLONIC SOUTHERN STREAM JET...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS. BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN MOIST AND POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE...SUPPORTIVE OF INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...BEFORE COLD FRONT SURGES INTO/THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY BY EARLY FRIDAY. CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC ISENTROPIC ASCENT APPEARS LIKELY TO SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE APPALACHIANS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR AREAS FROM CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA IN TIME FOR SUBSTANTIAL DAYTIME HEATING. MODELS SUGGEST AREA OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT COULD DEVELOP ALONG THIS AXIS BY LATE AFTERNOON...AS A MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHIFTS ACROSS MICHIGAN/NORTHERN INDIANA DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE SUPPORTIVE OF ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...WITH STORMS LIKELY QUICKLY BECOMING ROOTED IN BOUNDARY LAYER WITH MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE UP TO AROUND 2000 J/KG. A FEW SEVERE STORMS APPEAR LIKELY...WITH VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS...PERHAPS ISOLATED TORNADOES. FURTHER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO SURFACE FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA/SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN... WHERE FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT AND SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SEVERE POTENTIAL. ACTIVITY THROUGHOUT THE OHIO VALLEY WILL TEND TO DEVELOP EAST SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE EVENING HOURS...SLOWLY DIMINISHING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AS IT PROGRESS INTO THE APPALACHIANS AND AREAS SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. ...SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... SOUTHERN BRANCH CLOSED LOW IS PROGGED EASTWARD INTO NEW MEXICO DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THOUGH DRY LINE WILL BE FARTHER EAST...ACROSS WEST TEXAS INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA...MID-LEVEL COLD POOL WITH 500 MB TEMPERATURES AOB -15C WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION AS BOUNDARY LAYER HEATS ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO. THIS MAY SUPPORT A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF HIGH-BASED CONVECTION WITH POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS AND SOME HAIL. AS 50+ KT SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL JET NOSES ACROSS WEST TEXAS... FOLLOWED BY STRONGER MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS...CONVECTION SHOULD INITIATE AND QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE ALONG DRY LINE. MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE NEAR DRY LINE MAY EXCEED 2000 J/KG...AND GIVEN STRENGTH OF MID/UPPER FLOW...A FEW SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY. MODELS SUGGEST LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK...LIMITING TORNADO THREAT...BUT ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. AS UPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES EASTWARD INTO THE LOWER PLAINS THURSDAY EVENING...MID-LEVEL CAP WILL FINALLY WEAKEN. SUPPORTED BY STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET...MID/UPPER FORCING APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR EVOLUTION OF LARGE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS. RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS WILL INCREASE AS SYSTEM EVOLVES...AND MAY PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS SYSTEM SLOWLY PROGRESSES EASTWARD. ..KERR.. 05/26/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu May 27 07:32:24 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 27 May 2004 02:32:24 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200405270732.i4R7WeO29537@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 270731 SWODY2 SPC AC 270729 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0229 AM CDT THU MAY 27 2004 VALID 281200Z - 291200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NNW GFK 50 NE FAR 35 SSW AXN 25 NW OTG 15 ENE YKN 40 WNW YKN 20 SW 9V9 45 E DIK 20 ENE P24 45 NNE MOT 55 NNW GFK. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE RMG 35 SSW MEM 40 WNW TXK 25 NE DUA 40 NW MLC 25 N UMN 50 SSW BLV 50 W LOZ 35 ESE RWI 10 S EWN 35 ENE CRE 20 NNE RMG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW CRE 30 SE RMG CBM 15 W ELD 35 SSW GGG 30 WNW CLL 10 NNW AUS 45 E JCT 20 SSW BWD 20 NW MWL 15 ENE SPS 20 SE CSM 30 SW GAG 30 SW EHA 10 NNW TAD 55 WNW ALS 30 ESE U17 35 SE SGU 20 E DRA 20 SW TPH 25 SSE SVE 25 N MFR 25 E AST 40 WNW BLI ...CONT... 40 NNW ELO 40 SE ELO 65 SW IWD 25 SSE EAU 20 S CID 30 SSE UIN 50 NNW EVV 25 NW CRW 35 NNW CXY 40 NNE MSV 25 WNW EFK 35 N BML 10 NE PWM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN OK TO TN AND NC.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS AND EXTREME WRN MN.... ...SYNOPSIS... A DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND ROCKIES...WHILE A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD OVER NEW ENGLAND. THE REMNANTS OF THE SRN STREAM TROUGH NOW OVER SW AZ WILL EJECT ENEWD FROM N TX/SRN OK TO THE MS VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID ATLANTIC REGION DURING THE DAY...PROVIDING A POTENTIAL FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY AND AT BEST WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT SUGGEST THAT ANY SEVERE STORM THREAT WILL BE RELATIVELY LIMITED...AND SHOULD CONSIST OF ISOLATED STRONG GUSTS FROM SE NEW ENGLAND TO THE CHESAPEAKE AREA. THE THREAT FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL BE SOMEWHAT GREATER FROM ERN OK TO TN AND NC...AND ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS AREA. ...ERN OK TO TN AND NC... THE QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT WILL AGAIN PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY. THE EJECTING REMNANTS OF THE SRN STREAM TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN A BELT OF 50 KT MID LEVEL FLOW OVER THE BOUNDARY...WHERE MODERATE INSTABILITY IS LIKELY DURING THE DAY. ONE OR MORE STORM CLUSTERS SHOULD MOVE EWD ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME HAIL. ...DAKOTAS... LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN NWD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE NRN PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO LEE CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. STEEP L0W-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S...ALONG WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90 F...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SBCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG ACROSS ERN SD DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE CAP WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG OVER THIS AREA...SO A FEW STORMS MAY FORM NEAR PEAK HEATING INVOF THE DEVELOPING SURFACE WARM FRONT. STORMS ACROSS THIS AREA COULD BECOME SUPERCELLS...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS. OVERNIGHT...A STRONG WAA PATTERN ON THE NOSE OF A 50-60 KT LLJ SHOULD SUPPORT ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS WRN MN AND ERN ND...WHERE ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. ..THOMPSON.. 05/27/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu May 27 17:35:41 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 27 May 2004 12:35:41 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200405271735.i4RHZtQ08610@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 271734 SWODY2 SPC AC 271732 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1232 PM CDT THU MAY 27 2004 VALID 281200Z - 291200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW ANB 20 SW GLH 25 S GGG 35 SSE DAL 30 ENE ADM 35 ESE POF 40 E BWG 25 E GSO 15 WNW FAY 40 SE SPA 25 WSW ANB. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNW GFK 30 SSE BJI 20 S STC 25 ESE FRM 55 NE OMA 30 WNW OMA 35 SW 9V9 50 NNW PHP 20 W DIK 40 NE MOT 45 NNW GFK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW CHS 20 NNE MCN 10 SE 0A8 50 NNE HEZ 55 SE AUS 45 E JCT 50 SW BWD 40 ENE ABI 45 SE CDS 30 ENE AMA 50 NNE EHA 40 E AKO PUB 45 SSE GUC 4HV 20 WSW SGU 45 WNW DRA 35 N BIH 50 NNW WMC 20 N EUG 15 NNW HQM 10 N BLI ...CONT... 60 WNW RRT 10 S HIB 40 W LNR 35 E UIN 10 ENE VIH 15 NNE OWB 35 NE LEX 25 W LBE 35 NE BGM 25 WNW EFK 35 NW BML 50 N BML 20 WSW 3B1 35 SW BHB. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SERN OK / THE ARKLATEX REGION ENEWD TO THE WRN CAROLINAS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE MID MO VALLEY / NRN PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE MID-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM ERN CANADA INTO THE ERN U.S. SHOULD BECOME MORE NEGATIVELY-TILTED WITH TIME...WHILE SECOND LARGE TROUGH MOVES EWD ACROSS THE WRN U.S. / ROCKIES. IN BETWEEN...A SHORT-WAVE RIDGE SHOULD SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THE ERN CONUS...WHILE FARTHER SW THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD BECOME MORE W-E ORIENTED ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. TRAILING PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY OVER THE PLAINS SHOULD BEGIN RETREATING NWD AS A WARM FRONT AHEAD OF HIGH PLAINS CYCLOGENESIS AHEAD OF APPROACHING WRN UPPER TROUGH. ...SERN OK / NERN TX EWD ACROSS THE TN VALLEY INTO THE WRN CAROLINAS... STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ALONG SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM SERN OK / THE ARKLATEX REGION ENEWD ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...INCLUDING A POSSIBLE MCS OVER SERN OK AND VICINITY AHEAD OF MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. ALTHOUGH THIS TROUGH SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EWD INTO MORE CONFLUENT FLOW...ASSOCIATED SPEED MAX ALONG WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY ALONG W-E SURFACE BOUNDARY SUGGESTS THAT AN AXIS OF SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD EXIST -- PERHAPS AS FAR E AS THE WRN CAROLINAS. MAIN SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WITH A FEW STRONGER STORM CLUSTERS...AS DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD SHOULD BE GENERALLY UNDIRECTIONAL / WSWLY. ...MID MO VALLEY INTO THE NRN PLAINS... SHORT-WAVE RIDGING ALOFT IS FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THIS REGION DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF LARGE TROUGH CROSSING THE WRN U.S. / ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION. RESULTING WARMING / SUBSIDENCE OVER THE PLAINS SHOULD SUPPRESS MOST CONVECTION THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. HOWEVER... SURFACE FRONT RETREATING NWD ACROSS THIS REGION MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED TO ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT BY LATE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT LIMITED /GENERALLY 500 TO 1500 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE/...INCREASING SLY LOW-LEVEL JET COUPLED WITH 25 TO 35 KT WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE -- PARTICULARLY INVOF THE MO VALLEY OF ERN SD / ERN NEB / WRN IA DURING THE AFTERNOON / EARLY EVENING -- WITH A LESSER THREAT WWD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. OVERNIGHT...INCREASINGLY-STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET AND ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION SHOULD HELP SHIFT MAIN SEVERE THREAT NWD / NEWD. GIVEN PRIMARILY ELEVATED NATURE OF CONVECTION FORECAST OVERNIGHT...MAIN THREAT SHOULD SHIFT TOWARD HAIL. ...SRN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION... MODERATELY-STRONG DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD BUT GENERALLY LIMITED LAPSE RATES / INSTABILITY ARE FORECAST FROM NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AHEAD OF EWD-MOVING COLD FRONT. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ALONG AND AHEAD OF FRONT...THUS LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER...GIVEN STRENGTH OF WIND FIELD...A FEW SEVERE STORMS / STORM CLUSTERS WHICH COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY DAMAGING GUSTS OR MARGINALLY-SEVERE HAIL ARE EXPECTED...PARTICULARLY WHERE POCKETS OF LOCALLY GREATER INSTABILITY DEVELOP. THREAT SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING AS BOUNDARY MOVES OFFSHORE AND AIRMASS STABILIZES. ..GOSS.. 05/27/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri May 28 07:40:08 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 28 May 2004 02:40:08 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200405280740.i4S7eLQ25845@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 280738 SWODY2 SPC AC 280736 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0236 AM CDT FRI MAY 28 2004 VALID 291200Z - 301200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NNW BVO 30 WNW PNC 40 SW P28 50 SSW RSL 15 SE HSI OFK 20 SSW FSD OTG 20 NW FOD 45 WSW DSM 10 NW FLV 30 S TOP 55 NNW BVO. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW RRT 30 E STC 55 NW DBQ 40 NE IRK 35 NE JLN 30 S TUL 20 W ADM 55 NE ABI 70 S CDS 40 S GAG 50 S HLC 15 WNW EAR 60 W YKN 25 WNW ABR 70 N DVL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW ANJ 15 SSE MBL 30 WSW GRR 35 WSW SBN BMG 25 WNW JKL 10 NNW GSO 50 SW HSE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE SAV 30 NE CSG 20 E CBM 30 SE PBF 30 SE TXK 45 S TYR 10 SW AUS 45 NW HDO 45 NW DRT 30 ESE FST 10 E LBB 30 S LBL LAA 45 ENE ALS 30 NW DRO 45 N BCE 50 WNW OGD 45 NW PIH 25 NNE CTB. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ERN NEB/WRN IA INTO CENTRAL AND ERN KS AND NWRN MO... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MUCH OF CENTRAL U.S. OUTSIDE OF MDT RISK AREA... ...WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING CENTRAL U.S... ...SYNOPSIS... UNSEASONABLY STRONG AND BROAD UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES ON DY2 WITH ASSOCIATED COLD UPPER LOW MOVING INTO ERN MT BY 12Z SUN. ETA/GFS BASIC AGREEMENT ON SURFACE FEATURES WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM LOW CENTER SRN SASKATCHEWAN SEWD INTO A SECOND LOW OVER CENTRAL SD THEN SWWD INTO SRN UT SAT MORNING. BY LATE AFTERNOON THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS EWD INTO ERN DAKOTAS WITH THE SD LOW MOVING NEWD TO VICINITY MN/ND/SD BORDER WHILE A LOW DEEPENS OVER WRN KS AT THE TRIPLE POINT OF THE COLD FRONT/DRY LINE. THE DRY LINE WILL EXTEND SWD VICINITY OK/TX BORDER TO BIG BEND. IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT/DRY LINE 40-50 KT OF 850MB SLY FLOW WILL EXTEND FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO THE CANADIAN BORDER. A VERY MOIST GULF AIR MASS WILL SPREAD NWD BY LATE AFTERNOON TO THE CANADIAN BORDER WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S COMMON AND NEAR 70F ERN NEB/WRN IA SWD. WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 7C/KM THE RESULT WILL BE HIGHLY UNSTABLE AIR E OF FRONT/DRY LINE NWD TO CANADIAN BORDER BY MID AFTERNOON. ...CENTRAL U.S... STRONG MID LEVEL COOLING AND HEIGHT FALLS SPREAD ACROSS NRN PLAINS INTO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A LEAD S/WV TROUGH ROTATES NEWD AHEAD OF UPPER LOW. ANOTHER S/WV TROUGH MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL ROCKIES AND DOES NOT ENTER CENTRAL PLAINS UNTIL LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS INDICATE PRONOUNCED UPPER DIVERGENCE DEVELOPING BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON FROM ERN DAKOTAS SWD TO ERN NEB/WRN IA AHEAD OF FIRST S/WV TROUGH. A VERY TO EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS DEVELOPS BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS MUCAPES OF 3000-4000 J/KG COMMON E OF COLD FRONT/DRY LINE. AS CAP WEAKENS UNDER THE LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF TROUGH AND THE STRONG HEATING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND BECOME WIDESPREAD BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF FRONT SWD INTO CENTRAL/ERN KS. THE AREA OF GREATEST POTENTIAL INSTABILITY...FAVORABLE UPPER DIVERGENCE AND VEERING SHEAR PROFILES SHOULD EXIST FROM ERN NEB/WRN IA SWD ALONG DRY LINE INTO CENTRAL KS. THIS REGION WOULD SEEM AS AN AREA FOR THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF SEVERE STORMS ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES. FURTHER N AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS SD AND S/WV TROUGH...BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ENHANCE HELICITY AND POSSIBLE TORNADO POTENTIAL ERN ND/SD INTO WRN MN EVEN THOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE AS HIGH AS FURTHER S. FROM CENTRAL KS SWD THE CAP STRENGTH WILL BE AN ISSUE. HOWEVER THE EXPECTED EXTREME INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH 40-50 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTS A CONDITIONAL RISK OF SEVERE WITH ANY STORMS THAT CAN FORM. ..HALES.. 05/28/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat May 29 07:09:13 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 29 May 2004 02:09:13 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200405290709.i4T79Kj25863@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 290707 SWODY2 SPC AC 290705 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0205 AM CDT SAT MAY 29 2004 VALID 301200Z - 311200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WNW AND RMG 20 N TUP 40 WSW MEM 35 W POF 50 ESE VIH 20 SSW SPI 40 ENE BMI 30 W SBN 15 N TOL 20 SSE CLE 25 SW HLG 25 S CRW 15 S HSS 55 WNW AND. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE GSP 30 ESE ATL 20 SSW BHM 40 NNW JAN 40 SE TXK PRX 35 NNW MLC OJC 45 SSW ALO 10 W VOK 30 SSW ESC 30 SW APN 20 ESE ERI 30 NNE LBE 25 NNW SHD 20 E HKY 25 SSE GSP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NE ART 25 NNE NEL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE CHS 20 E VLD 30 SE TLH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ESE NIR 15 WSW AUS 45 SSW SPS 15 ENE CSM 15 SW SLN 25 W BIE 60 SSE 9V9 35 S PHP 35 E SHR 60 ENE HVR. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MUCH OF OH AND TN VALLEYS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MID AND UPPER MS VALLEY EWD TO APPALACHIANS OUTSIDE OF THE MDT RISK AREA... ...WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY MUCH OF OH AND TN VALLEYS... ...LARGE PORTION OF MID MS/OH AND TN VALLEYS... UNSEASONABLY STRONG TROUGH REMAINS PROGRESSIVE ON DY2 WITH VIGOROUS MID/UPPER LEVEL JET MAX ROTATING RAPIDLY EWD ACROSS LOWER MO VALLEY INTO THE OH VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE W OF N UNDER THE UPPER LOW OVER NRN MS VALLEY DURING THE PERIOD...A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING JET MAX AND S/WV TROUGH DEVELOPS AT TRIPLE POINT OF WARM/COLD FRONT AND MOVES ENEWD ACROSS NRN OH VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT. VERY MOIST AIR MASS WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE 70S WILL SPREAD NEWD ACROSS MUCH OF AREA BETWEEN MS VALLEY AND APPALACHIANS DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH BY 18Z SHOULD BE LOCATED FROM THE SURFACE LOW OVER MN SWD INTO ERN MO AND THEN SWWD INTO SWRN TX. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT ACROSS OH/TN VALLEYS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF 50KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR...MUCAPES OF 3000 J/KG AND HIGHER AND INCREASING ASCENT SPREADING EWD WITH S/WV TROUGH AND MID/UPPER LEVEL JET MAX WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS. TORNADOES WILL BE LIKELY WITH STORMS EVOLVING INTO LINES AND BOWS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING SUNDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE STRONG COUPLED JET INTERACTS WITH THE VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS THAT WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW NEWD ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEYS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THRU SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES AFTER DARK GIVEN THE TIMING OF THE INCREASING SUPPORT FROM THE APPROACHING JET MAX AND AVAILABILITY OF A VERY MOIST AIR MASS. THE EFFECTS OF ONGOING CONVECTION FROM DY1 WILL LIKELY PLAY A ROLE IN THE INITIATION OF SURFACE BASED STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS IS DIFFICULT TO EVALUATE ATTM...HOWEVER THE THERMODYNAMICS AND KINEMATICS ALL POINT TO A VERY ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER DAY OVER A LARGE AREA BETWEEN MS RIVER VALLEY AND APPALACHIANS. ..HALES.. 05/29/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat May 29 17:55:19 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 29 May 2004 12:55:19 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200405291755.i4THtQj28530@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 291753 SWODY2 SPC AC 291751 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1251 PM CDT SAT MAY 29 2004 VALID 301200Z - 311200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE CBM GLH 35 NW TXK 20 E FSM 45 ENE COU 10 WSW JVL 25 E SBN 15 SW MFD 20 ENE PKB 10 NE 5I3 40 NW CHA 30 NE CBM. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 E CHA 25 ESE RMG 45 SW TCL 30 WNW MLU 15 E DAL 55 E OKC 35 WSW JLN 30 WNW SZL 20 W LSE 50 NW EAU 35 WNW AUW 25 SE GRR 25 WSW DUJ 20 SSE LBE 45 SW EKN 50 E CHA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N BUF 25 SSE IPT 25 SSE NEL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NE SSI 30 WNW ABY 20 WSW PNS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE BPT 25 N VCT 45 SE JCT 25 SE MWL 25 NNW CSM 30 NNW P28 15 ENE HLC 30 ENE LIC 45 WSW LAR 15 S 81V 65 NW GGW. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF AR / SERN MO / IL / IN / OH / KY / TN / NRN MS AND NWRN AL... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK AREA...AND COVERING MUCH OF THE REGION FROM THE ARKLATEX NWD INTO WI AND EWD TO THE APPALACHIANS... ...SYNOPSIS... SIGNIFICANT / WIDESPREAD SEVERE EVENT SHAPING UP FOR THE DAY 2 PERIOD ACROSS A LARGE AREA FROM AR / SERN MO / IL EWD TO THE APPALACHIANS AS UNSEASONABLY STRONG MID-LEVEL TROUGH -- AND ASSOCIATED 70 TO 80 KT MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX MOVE EWD ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE MS / OH / TN VALLEYS. TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TAKE ON AN INCREASINGLY NEGATIVE TILT WITH TIME...WITH LARGE AREA OF DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ACROSS THIS REGION. AT THE LOW LEVELS...STRONG SLY WINDS AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD FRONT WILL ADVECT 70S DEWPOINTS NWD TO THE SRN FRINGES OF THE GREAT LAKES ALONG AND SOUTH OF RETREATING WARM FRONT. THE COLD FRONT INITIALLY EXPECTED FROM A SRN MN LOW CENTER SWWD ACROSS ERN KS INTO WRN OK IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD TO AN IL / SERN MO / NWRN AR / NERN TX LINE BY LATE AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT...THIS FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE EWD...CROSSING THE TN VALLEY AND REACHING THE APPALACHIANS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. ...MID MS / TN / OH VALLEYS... ONGOING CONVECTION -- PARTICULARLY ALONG RETREATING WARM FRONT ACROSS IA / IL AND THE OH VALLEY REGION -- WILL COMPLICATE THE FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD...AS WILL UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING CONVECTIVE MODE -- I.E. PRIMARILY LINEAR VS. MORE ISOLATED SUPERCELLS OR SOME COMBINATION OF THE TWO. HOWEVER...BROAD PICTURE INDICATES A SIGNIFICANT / WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE ACROSS A LARGE AREA FROM PARTS OF AR / MO / IL EWD TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS AS VERY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS ADVECTS NWD BENEATH UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER FLOW. ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT ALTHOUGH STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING INVOF RETREATING WARM FRONT EARLY IN THE PERIOD...INITIAL SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY BE WITH STORMS DEVELOPING NEAR AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON AS STRONGER WIND FIELD SPREADS SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE MS AND INTO THE OH VALLEY DURING THE DAY. AIRMASS SHOULD BECOME AT LEAST MODERATELY UNSTABLE /2000 TO 3000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE/ THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH AXIS OF GREATEST INSTABILITY EXPECTED JUST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. STRENGTH OF FORCING ALONG FRONT SUGGESTS THAT STORMS MAY EVOLVE FAIRLY RAPIDLY INTO A LINE. HOWEVER... WIDESPREAD HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR WOULD ALSO SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT FURTHER AHEAD OF FRONT ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. MOST WIDESPREAD PRE-COLD FRONTAL DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY BE FOCUSED ALONG WARM FRONT...AND AS DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD INCREASES DURING THE AFTERNOON...SUPERCELL STORMS AND ASSOCIATED SEVERE / TORNADO THREAT SHOULD INCREASE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WHICH WILL LIKELY BE MOVING NWD ACROSS NRN IL / NRN IN / OH. ALONG AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...STORMS WILL LIKELY TREND TOWARD A LINEAR CONFIGURATION WITH TIME...ALTHOUGH PERHAPS REMAINING MORE ISOLATED FURTHER S INTO AR GIVEN THAT CAPPING SHOULD BE STRONGER AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING FOCUSED A BIT FURTHER NORTH. IN ADDITION TO VERY LARGE HAIL AND POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS ALONG LINE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THIS REGION. HOWEVER...GREATEST THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT / LONG-TRACK TORNADOES WOULD LIKELY BE WITH MORE ISOLATED STORMS -- MAINLY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT OR INVOF RETREATING WARM FRONT. OVERNIGHT...STORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME INCREASINGLY LINEAR ALONG AND AHEAD OF EWD-MOVING COLD FRONT...WHILE SEVERE THREAT -- INCLUDING WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...AND TORNADOES...WILL CONTINUE -- LIKELY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. ..GOSS.. 05/29/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun May 30 07:18:57 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 30 May 2004 02:18:57 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200405300719.i4U7J1j27958@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 300717 SWODY2 SPC AC 300715 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0215 AM CDT SUN MAY 30 2004 VALID 311200Z - 011200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE ILM 40 WSW AGS 15 E SEM 30 W HEZ 35 SSW SHV TXK 10 NNW PBF 60 ENE MKL 30 NW HTS 20 SW LBE 10 SSE JFK 10 SW JFK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE JAX CTY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE MSY 10 NNE BPT 35 E AUS 30 SE SEP 15 N DUA 40 S HRO 30 N PAH 40 N SDF 35 E MIE 30 NNW LAF 25 WNW UIN 35 N FNB 35 SE 9V9 40 NE ABR 70 ESE ELO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WSW MSS 25 NNE EWB. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MID ATLANTIC STATES AND PORTIONS OF GULF COAST STATES... ...SYNOPSIS... BY MONDAY SURFACE AND UPPER LOW BECOME NEARLY VERTICAL OVER UPR MS VALLEY...WHILE STRONG BAND OF WINDS ON S SIDE OF LOW CONTINUE DRIVING EWD TO MID ATLANTIC COAST BY END OF FORECAST PERIOD. A WARM FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM DELMARVA NWWD INTO WRN PA MON AM AND SLOWLY MOVE NWD DURING THE DAY. THE EXPECTED LINES OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT OH/TN VALLEYS LIKELY WILL BECONTINUING IN A SOMEWHAT WEAKENED FORM AND CROSSING THE APPALACHIANS MONDAY AM. COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BE MOVING EWD ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS BY MID DAY AND EXTENDING SWWD ACROSS NRN GULF STATES AND THEN WWD TO NRN TX WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF APPALACHIANS OF VA/MD AHEAD OF THE S/WV TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL WIND MAX DURING THE AFTERNOON AND MOVE OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT. ...MID ATLANTIC STATES... A SWLY FLOW OF VERY MOIST AND MODERATELY TO VERY UNSTABLE AIR WILL SPREAD FROM GULF STATES NEWD INTO MID ATLANTIC STATES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. SHEAR WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY ACROSS MID ATLANTIC STATES AHEAD OF WIND MAX AND DEVELOPING LEE LOW. BY AFTERNOON SFC-6KM SHEAR OF 40-50 KT WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EITHER WITH COLD FRONT OR OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY. ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND CONVERGENCE VICINITY OF WARM FRONT/SURFACE LOW SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS DELMARVA PORTION OF OUTLOOK. IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING WIND THREAT THERE COULD BE A TORNADO THREAT AS WELL GIVEN THE LOW LCL'S AND POTENTIAL INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PROFILES. LATER OUTLOOKS WILL BE BETTER ABLE TO EVALUATE TORNADO POTENTIAL GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY YET IN THE MODEL EVOLUTION IN THIS AREA. ...GULF COAST STATES... OUTFLOW FROM OVERNIGHT STORMS AND/OR COLD FRONT WILL BE FOCUS OF REDEVELOPMENT OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF INLAND PORTION OF GULF COAST STATES WWD TO NRN LA/SRN AR. WARM SECTOR AIRMASS WILL REMAIN VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE WHICH COUPLED WITH 30-40 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR PRIMARILY MULTICELLULAR SEVERE THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND A LESSOR THREAT OF LARGE HAIL. ...UPPER MS VALLEY... COLD UPPER LOW OVER THIS AREA SHOULD SUPPORT AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WITH A MARGINAL HAIL THREAT GIVEN THE LOW WET BULB ZEROS. ..HALES.. 05/30/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun May 30 17:52:52 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 30 May 2004 12:52:52 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200405301752.i4UHqtj24113@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 301750 SWODY2 SPC AC 301749 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1249 PM CDT SUN MAY 30 2004 VALID 311200Z - 011200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE ILM 15 SSE FLO 20 SW AGS 40 S CSG 45 ESE MCB 25 NNE CLL 15 WSW ACT 40 N ACT 40 S PRX 35 ENE TUP 40 E BNA 60 N POF 55 SSW SZL 15 SE STJ 35 NNW DSM AUW 50 SE MBL 25 NE MTC ...CONT... 45 WNW ERI 30 ESE BFD 35 WNW ABE 10 S ACY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WNW SYR 10 NE NEL ...CONT... 15 SSE SSI 25 NW AQQ ...CONT... 20 NW BVE 15 N 7R4 60 S CLL 40 WNW TPL MWL 30 NNW TXK 55 E LIT 20 W DYR 10 N POF 30 NW SGF 20 ENE EMP 10 NNE OLU 20 NW SPW 75 NNE DVL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE ERN CONUS... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE / NEGATIVELY-TILTED MID-LEVEL TROUGH -- FORECAST TO BE THE MAIN LARGE-SCALE FEATURE ASSOCIATED WITH SEVERE THREAT FOR DAY 2 -- IS EXPECTED AT THE START OF THE PERIOD TO LIE ALONG AN AXIS FROM WRN CANADA SEWD ACROSS ND / MN INTO THE OH / TN VALLEYS. MEANWHILE...DOWNSTREAM SHORT-WAVE RIDGE SHOULD EXTEND FROM THE SERN ATLANTIC COAST NWD INTO CENTRAL PA AND THEN NWWD INTO HUDSON BAY / NERN MANITOBA. SRN PORTION OF THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO ELONGATE EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES / OH VALLEY REGION WITH TIME AS IT -- AND ASSOCIATED 70 TO 75 KT MID-LEVEL JET -- SLOWLY PINCHES OFF CANADA PORTION OF SHORT-WAVE RIDGE. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...AN ELONGATED UPPER LOW IS FORECAST FROM SRN MN EWD TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...WITH INTENSIFYING UPPER HIGH OVER NERN MANITOBA / HUDSON BAY. AT THE SURFACE...STRONG / OCCLUDED LOW IS FORECAST OVER NRN MN AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...WITH TRIPLE POINT NEAR SRN LK MI. COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO EXTEND SWWD FROM TRIPLE POINT ACROSS THE LOWER OH / MID MS VALLEYS INTO AR / NERN TX...WHILE WARM FRONT EXTENDS ESEWD FROM SRN LOWER MI ACROSS THE UPPER OH VALLEY TO THE DELMARVA PENINSULA / CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION. WITH TIME...NRN PORTION OF FRONT IS FORECAST TO SURGE EWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. AS THIS OCCURS...LOW SHOULD ELONGATE W-E ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...EXTENDING BY THE END OF THE PERIOD FROM MN TO WRN NY / SRN ONTARIO. FURTHER SOUTH...TRAILING PORTION OF THE BOUNDARY SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY W-E ORIENTED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST / GULF COAST STATES AS NRN PORTION OF BOUNDARY SURGES EWD. BY LATE IN THE PERIOD...FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM THE CAROLINAS WWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES INTO SRN / ERN TX. ...MIDDLE OH VALLEY / TN VALLEY EWD TO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION... STORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ALONG COLD FRONT / WITHIN MOIST / UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THIS REGION. STRONG / GENERALLY WLY MID-LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING RAPIDLY EWD ACROSS THIS REGION...AS WILL COLD FRONT WHICH SHOULD REMAIN THE FOCUS FOR A LINE OF SEVERE STORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON / EVENING. ALTHOUGH DOWNSTREAM DESTABILIZATION OF AIRMASS MAY BE LIMITED BY CLOUD COVER -- AS WELL AS PRECIPITATION ALONG BACKDOOR FRONT OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION...INSTABILITY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT IN CONJUNCTION WITH STRONG DYNAMICS / KINEMATICS TO SUPPORT A THREAT FOR PRIMARILY DAMAGING WINDS AS STORMS MOVE RAPIDLY EWD ACROSS THIS REGION. DURING THE EVENING...STRONGEST PORTION OF LINE SHOULD PUSH EWD OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST...WHILE POST-FRONTAL / GENERALLY NON-SEVERE STORMS MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS UPPER LOW LINGERS OVER THE AREA. ...E TX ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION... STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ALONG COLD FRONT FROM THE TN VALLEY SWWD INTO NRN LAY / E TX. THIS LINE OF STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE SEWD THROUGH MOIST / UNSTABLE AIRMASS ALONG AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR STORM REDEVELOPMENT LATER IN THE DAY ACROSS NERN TX AS ETA INDICATES WEAK WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG FRONT. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD REMAIN VEERED / SWLY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...REGION REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF MID-LEVEL JET AXIS. AS A RESULT...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE FAVORABLE FOR BOTH SUPERCELLS AS WELL AS SMALL-SCALE LINES / BOWS. ALTHOUGH FRONT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY W-E ORIENTED WITH TIME AND THUS MORE PARALLEL WITH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WHICH SHOULD PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND THREAT...LOCALLY STRONG GUSTS ALONG WITH MARGINAL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. ALTHOUGH UNCERTAIN ATTM...WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG FRONT IN NERN TX COULD RESULT IN AREA OF LOCALLY-BACKED LOW-LEVEL WINDS AND THUS SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR FOR TORNADOES. LOW CONFIDENCE EXISTS ATTM WITH THIS SCENARIO HOWEVER...WITH MAIN THREAT LIKELY TO REMAIN MARGINAL HAIL / WIND. ...MIDDLE AND UPPER MS / LOWER AND MIDDLE OH VALLEYS... AIRMASS IS FORECAST TO DESTABILIZE WITH DAYTIME HEATING BEHIND COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION...BENEATH COLD /-18 TO -20 C/ MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES SPREADING EWD TO THE SOUTH OF UPPER LOW / ALONG AND N OF MID-LEVEL JET. WITH GENERALLY 500 TO 1000 J/KG SURFACE-BASED CAPE FORECAST BY AFTERNOON AND MODERATE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...EXPECT LOW-TOPPED SEVERE STORMS / SUPERCELLS TO DEVELOP. PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE HAIL FROM MIDDAY THROUGH EARLY EVENING BEFORE STORMS WEAKEN WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ..GOSS.. 05/30/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon May 31 07:42:44 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 31 May 2004 02:42:44 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200405310742.i4V7gjj12431@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 310740 SWODY2 SPC AC 310738 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0238 AM CDT MON MAY 31 2004 VALID 011200Z - 021200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE LFT 25 SSW POE 35 S TYR 45 SW ADM 40 ESE FSI 25 SE OKC FYV 35 NNE MKL 45 SSE BNA 45 WSW CHA 15 NNW ANB 40 SW SEM 25 N GPT 25 ESE BTR 20 NE LFT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WNW DRT 20 WSW CSM 30 W END 40 W JLN 25 WNW CGI 40 NNE BWG 50 NE LEX 10 NE UNI 20 WNW MGW 25 ENE EKN 40 WSW SHD 40 W GSO 45 NNW AGS 15 SE MCN 35 SW DHN 10 ESE PNS. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE ARKLATEX...LOWER MS VALLEY AND MID MS VALLEY... ...GULF COASTAL STATES... A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING SEWD ACROSS THE OZARKS AND MID MS VALLEY WILL STALL IN THE SERN STATES ON DAY 2. LOWER TO MID 70S F SFC DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT. THE ETA AND GFS SOLUTIONS BOTH GENERATE A MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE GULF COAST TUESDAY ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE TIMING AND EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE FEATURE. BOTH MODELS GENERATE LATE MORNING CONVECTION WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE CONSIDERING THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. DAYTIME HEATING...CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES SHOULD HELP INITIATE STORMS NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS AND INLAND ACROSS LA AND MS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THIS AREA SHOW STRONG INSTABILITY (MLCAPE OF 2000 TO 3000 J/KG) WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL VEERING AND MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WHICH SHOULD PROMOTE A SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THE REGION. BOTH THE ETA AND GFS STRENGTHEN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW NEAR THE COASTAL AREAS WITH WOULD CREATE STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. THIS WOULD RESULT IN A WIND DAMAGE OR AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE EWD AND WEAKEN AS THE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SPREADS EWD AWAY FROM THE INSTABILITY AXIS DURING THE DAY. ...RED RIVER VALLEY/LOWER MS VALLEY... THE FRONT WHICH WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH TX EXTENDING EWD ACROSS THE GULF COASTAL STATES ON DAY 2...WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO LIFT NWD DURING THE DAY. BOTH THE ETA AND GFS ADVECT MID 70S F SFC DEWPOINTS NWD INTO THE ARKLATEX BY THE EVENING HOURS. AS A LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS ACROSS NORTH TX...STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. THIS WILL MAKE CONVECTIVE INITIATION LIKELY IN THE VICINITY OF THE RED RIVER AFTER DARK. BOTH THE GFS AND ETA ARE CONSISTENT DROPPING A MID-LEVEL JET (70 TO 80 KT) SEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS. THIS COMBINED WITH THE INCREASE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS DURING THE EVENING HOURS RESULTING IN SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS. ALTHOUGH THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF DEVELOPING CONVECTION IS UNCERTAIN ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR A CLUSTER OF ELEVATED STORMS WILL BE ACROSS ECNTRL OK OR NE TX ON THE NOSE OF THE MOIST TONGUE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THIS AREA SHOW MLCAPE OF 2500 TO 3000 J/KG WITH MOST OF THE INSTABILITY ABOVE 850 MB. IN ADDITION...STRONG LOW TO MID-LEVEL VEERING IS FORECAST AND THIS COMBINED WITH THE INSTABILITY AND INCREASING MID-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXCEEDING 8.0 C/KM ALONG THE RED RIVER WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP. THE CONVECTION MAY CONTINUE TO HAVE A HAIL THREAT AFTER MIDNIGHT AS IT SPREADS EWD INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION. ..BROYLES.. 05/31/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon May 31 17:25:42 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 31 May 2004 12:25:42 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200405311725.i4VHPhj03447@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 311724 SWODY2 SPC AC 311722 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1222 PM CDT MON MAY 31 2004 VALID 011200Z - 021200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM LFK 55 E ACT PRX PGO POF BWG 30 ENE BNA HSV TCL MCB POE LFK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM LAR COS SAF 10 WSW ABQ GNT GUP 4HV 10 SSE SLC WEY COD WRL LAR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE EFK PWM 10 SSE EWB ACY NHK AVL CHA LGC 10 SSE MCN 40 ENE SAV ...CONT... 10 SSE BPT CLL SAT 45 ESE JCT FTW 40 WNW ADM TUL UNO MTO SPI P35 LNK 60 SSE 9V9 ABR AXN MSP CWA 30 E PLN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ON TUESDAY FROM NORTHEAST TX...ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY...INTO THE WESTERN TN VALLEY... ...NORTHEAST TX INTO WESTERN TN VALLEY... BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND OH VALLEY ON TUESDAY...WITH BAND OF STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL WINDS EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS...ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES...AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. AT THE SURFACE...MAIN LOW WILL REMAIN OVER ONTARIO WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING INTO PARTS OF AR/MO/KY/TN BY AFTERNOON. THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. AIRMASS AHEAD OF FRONT WILL BE QUITE MOIST/UNSTABLE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S AS FAR NORTH AS WESTERN TN/NORTHEAST AR...AND MLCAPE VALUES IN THIS REGION EXCEEDING 3000 J/KG. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT STORMS WILL INTENSIFY ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON FROM NORTHERN AR INTO WESTERN KY...WITH GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT SOUTHWESTWARD DOWN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF GREATEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO NORTHEAST TX. STRONG DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL PROMOTE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION INTO SUPERCELLS AND SMALL BOWS...WITH A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL IN STRONGER CELLS. ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP SOUTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL MS AND NORTHERN AL DURING THE EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING. ...CENTRAL/EASTERN KY/TN... OTHER STRONG STORMS MAY INCREASE ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO MIDDLE/EASTERN TN AND CENTRAL/EASTERN KY. HOWEVER...LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY IN THIS REGION WILL TEND TO LESSEN RISK OF ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS. ...OH/PA/NY... FINALLY...COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES MAY POSE A RISK OF HAIL IN ISOLATED STORMS THAT FORM OVER PARTS OF WV/OH/PA/NY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE RATHER DISORGANIZED AND STRONGLY DIURNAL...WEAKENING RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET. ..HART.. 05/31/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From calvinfs at goshen.edu Thu May 6 07:55:26 2004 From: calvinfs at goshen.edu (calvinfs at goshen.edu) Date: Thu, 06 May 2004 02:55:26 -0500 Subject: [Swody2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200405060754.i467sOL22148@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 060752 SWODY2 SPC AC 060750 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0250 AM CDT THU MAY 06 2004 VALID 071200Z - 081200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNE ORF 25 SE UNI 15 SSW DNV 35 SSW OTM 10 NE FNB 20 W LNK 15 W SUX 30 ENE OTG 40 NNE RST 15 NE MTC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW ERI ACY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 N HVR 50 WSW DIK 55 NNE RAP 40 WSW RAP 30 SE SHR 35 SSW COD 30 SSE TWF 30 N BAM 65 NNW LOL 35 SE LMT 55 N MFR 25 WNW SLE CLM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 S MRF 15 N ROW 15 ENE TAD 40 W IML 40 NNE ANW 30 SE AXN 45 S IMT 85 ENE OSC ...CONT... 20 NW ART 25 SSE PSM ...CONT... 20 E ORF 40 SSW IRK 10 SSE MHK 25 SE DDC 45 NNW CDS 50 WSW SJT 45 ESE P07. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MID MO RIVER VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND MID ATLANTIC... ...MID MO RIVER VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND MID ATLANTIC... PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT PARALLELS MODERATE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST INTO THE MID MO RIVER VALLEY. A SERIES OF FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL SHIFT EWD ATOP BROAD RIDGE AXIS AND ENHANCE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS FRONT THROUGH THE PERIOD. LEADING SYSTEM WILL AID IN PUSHING SURFACE FRONT SSEWD AS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC/CHESAPEAKE REGION. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE IN THE DAY/OVERNIGHT LIFTING SURFACE FRONT SLOWLY NWD OVER INTO NRN IL/IA AFTER DARK...AND INCREASE CONVECTION ALONG NOSE OF RESPONDING SSWLY LLJ. CONVECTION MAY BE ONGOING OVER THE SRN/ERN GREAT LAKES EARLY IN THE PERIOD WHICH SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE MORNING. CAPPING WILL AGAIN BE A HINDRANCE FOR SURFACE-BASED STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE SRN MID ATLANTIC/CHESAPEAKE REGIONS...AS AIR MASS BECOMES MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITHIN WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF SSEWD MOVING COLD FRONT. THIS MAY SUPPORT A THREAT OF A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG ERN PORTION OF THE FRONT DURING THE DAY. ANY CONVECTION WHICH CAN BREAK THE CAP FARTHER WEST ALONG THE FRONT WILL ALSO CARRY WITH IT A THREAT OF SEVERE. PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP LATER IN THE DAY/EVENING INTO IA/SRN WI/NRN IL ALONG NOSE OF INCREASING SWLY LLJ...WHICH MIGHT REMAIN ELEVATED NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT EWD INTO THE CENTRAL/SRN GREAT LAKES REGION OVERNIGHT IN THE FORM OF ONE OR MORE MCS/S. VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES...MODERATE MUCAPE AND SUFFICIENT CLOUD LAYER SHEAR FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS SUGGEST THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL. SHOULD DEVELOPMENT BECOME ROOTED NEAR THE SURFACE FRONT...BOW ECHO/ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WOULD ALSO INCREASE. ...CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS... HEATING AND DEEP MIXING ALONG DRY LINE WILL WEAKEN CAP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS LATE FRIDAY...AND SUGGESTS ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM AND SHIFT SLOWLY EWD INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING. SHEAR REMAINS WEAK AND WILL LIMIT ORGANIZATION OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES DUE TO STRONG HEATING AND RELATIVELY COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES SUGGEST LOW PROBABILITIES OF SEVERE HAIL/WIND ARE WARRANTED. ...NRN INTERMOUNTAIN INTO THE NRN ROCKIES/ADJACENT PLAINS... UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT TOWARDS THE PAC NW FRIDAY...WITH A SERIES OF WEAKER SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EJECTING NEWD ACROSS THIS REGION ENHANCING THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS. IN ADDITION...SURFACE TO H7 COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SPREAD EWD INTO THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND MAY FOCUS MOIST CONVECTION INTO ERN ORE/SERN WA AND WRN ID. APPEARS LAPSE RATES WILL BECOME QUITE STEEP UNDER PLUME OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE OVERSPREADING THE REGION ...WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY DEVELOPING. THIS MIGHT SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE... THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ..EVANS.. 05/06/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From calvinfs at goshen.edu Thu May 6 17:19:54 2004 From: calvinfs at goshen.edu (calvinfs at goshen.edu) Date: Thu, 06 May 2004 12:19:54 -0500 Subject: [Swody2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200405061720.i46HKLI06808@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 061716 SWODY2 SPC AC 061714 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1214 PM CDT THU MAY 06 2004 VALID 071200Z - 081200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE ECG 45 SE LYH 45 ESE BMG 20 E UIN 25 W FNB 10 SSW OLU 20 S YKN 15 NNE MKT 20 E GRB 15 NE MTC ...CONT... 15 SW ERI 15 SSE ACY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 N HVR 30 W Y22 55 ESE REJ 45 WSW RAP 35 S SHR 35 SSW COD 30 SSE TWF 10 NE BAM 35 N RNO 35 SSE MHS 45 NNW MFR 25 WNW SLE CLM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE ECG 45 E DAN 25 ENE SDF 40 NW ALN 20 NNE MKC 35 SE DDC 50 E AMA 10 S BGS 45 ESE P07 ...CONT... 55 WNW MRF 45 E 4CR 25 SSW LHX 40 W IML 9V9 40 WSW STC 45 E ESC 110 ENE OSC ...CONT... 35 NW SYR 15 E GON. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY...OH VALLEY...GREAT LAKES AND MID ATLANTIC AREA... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF THE COUNTRY AND A LARGE UPPER RIDGE DOMINATING MUCH OF THE SRN TWO THIRDS. THE FRONT CURRENTLY FROM THE GREAT LAKES SWWD THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS WILL MOVE SEWD INTO THE OH VALLEY AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER S CNTRL CANADA MOVES EWD AND INTO SE CANADA BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BECOME STATIONARY FRIDAY FROM THE MID ATLANTIC WWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY...CNTRL PLAINS...AND NRN ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION. ...ERN PORTIONS OF CNTRL PLAINS THROUGH OH VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES... LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S WILL PERSIST UNDERNEATH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN WARM SECTOR S OF THE FRONT FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS EWD INTO THE OH VALLEY. AS SURFACE HEATING COMMENCES...THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2500 J/KG. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS COULD DEVELOP DURING AFTERNOON PEAK HEATING WITHIN ZONE OF FRONTAL CONVERGENCE. PRIMARY THREAT WOULD BE ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER...PRESENCE OF CAP WILL LIKELY LIMIT SURFACE BASED ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT. A MUCH BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE IN ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION N OF THE FRONT. A FEW ELEVATED STORMS MAY BE ONGOING DURING THE MORNING WITH A MARGINAL THREAT FOR HAIL. OTHER STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP N OF THE BOUNDARY OVER PARTS OF THE MID MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE ELEVATED WITH PRIMARY THREAT BEING LARGE HAIL. STORMS SHOULD SPREAD EWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET VEERS. ...MID ATLANTIC AREA... A FEW STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF SEWD MOVING FRONT AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES DURING THE AFTERNOON. WEAKER CAP IN THIS AREA SUGGESTS SURFACE BASED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING AFTERNOON PEAK HEATING. THOUGH NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...DEEP LAYER NWLY FLOW AND SHEAR PROFILES MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION...ESPECIALLY GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES AND EXPECTED MODERATE INSTABILITY. STORMS MAY ORGANIZE INTO LINE SEGMENTS AS THEY MOVE SEWD WITH THREAT FOR PRIMARILY DAMAGING WIND AND SOME HAIL THROUGH MID EVENING. ...SRN HIGH PLAINS... STRONG SURFACE HEATING WILL PROMOTE DEEP MIXING...INVERTED-V BOUNDARY LAYERS AND DESTABILIZATION OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. AS CAP WEAKENS STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND SPREAD EWD THROUGH ERN NM...W TX...OK PANHANDLE AND SW KS. HIGH BASED STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ...NRN ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION... WIDELY SCATTERED HIGH BASED STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN W AND NRN ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGIONS AS WELL AS IN VICINITY OF STALLED FRONT ACROSS MT. OWING TO LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND DEEP INVERTED-V BOUNDARY LAYERS WILL SUPPORT THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THROUGH MID EVENING. ..DIAL.. 05/06/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri May 7 07:27:41 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 07 May 2004 02:27:41 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200405070728.i477S3412804@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 070725 SWODY2 SPC AC 070724 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0224 AM CDT FRI MAY 07 2004 VALID 081200Z - 091200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ENE ROC 10 W IPT 25 NE LBE 35 SW TOL 45 E MLI 35 WNW LWD 10 NNE CNK 30 NE GAG 60 E LBB 20 NNW MAF 15 NNW INK 20 WNW HOB 40 SSE EHA 40 N GCK 20 WNW EAR 30 NE ANW 30 W PHP 25 NW DIK 60 ENE MOT 35 ENE JMS 20 S BRD 20 SE IMT 40 WSW PLN 15 SE APN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE DUG TCS 45 S LVS 10 S GLD MHN RAP RIW BOI 35 N OTH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW MSS RUT 10 E BOS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE CHS GSP 5I3 DAY UIN TOP CSM SJT 45 ESE P07. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ON SATURDAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE PLAINS...UPPER MIDWEST...AND GREAT LAKES STATES... BAND OF STRONG WESTERLY MID LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES ON SATURDAY...WITH SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PROGRESSING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. CONTINUED SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...MAINTAINING A RELATIVELY MOIST LOW LEVEL AIRMASS IN PLACE FROM SD/NEB INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS AXIS WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ON DAY2. ...MN/SD/NEB/IA/WI... MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR OVER EASTERN NEB/SD BY AFTERNOON...WITH WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD FROM LOW INTO SOUTHERN WI. STRONG DAYTIME HEATING IS LIKELY TO OCCUR ALONG THIS AXIS...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OF 2500-3500 J/KG. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW ONLY A WEAK CAP AND STRONG LOW LEVEL TURNING OF WINDS WITH HEIGHT. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT INITIAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR NEAR SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN NEB/SD...AND NORTHWESTWARD FROM LOW INTO CENTRAL SD/SOUTHWESTERN ND. STORMS SHOULD SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF IA/MN/WI DURING THE EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR LIKELY WITH THIS ACTIVITY. ALSO...STRENGTH OF FORECAST LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR SUGGESTS A RISK OF A FEW TORNADOES IN STRONGER CELLS. THIS AREA MAY REQUIRE UPGRADE TO MODERATE RISK IN SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS. ...LOWER MI INTO WESTERN NY/PA... SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL EXTEND ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MI INTO WESTERN NY/PA. AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL EXIST ALONG AND SOUTH OF FRONT...ALONG WITH SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG WESTERLY MID LEVEL WINDS WILL PROMOTE A RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN STRONGER CELLS. ...NEB/KS/OK/TX... SURFACE DRYLINE IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM WEST TX INTO CENTRAL NEB ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AND VERY STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL DEVELOP...ALONG WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2500 J/KG. WEAK BUT SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...AND WEAK CAP MAY RESULT IN A FEW CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS FROM WEST TX INTO SOUTHERN NEB. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE RATHER WEAK...SUGGESTING ACTIVITY WOULD BE POORLY ORGANIZED AND STRONG DIURNAL. HOWEVER...FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT SUGGESTS A RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ..HART.. 05/07/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri May 7 17:27:45 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 07 May 2004 12:27:45 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200405071728.i47HS6X26228@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 071726 SWODY2 SPC AC 071724 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1224 PM CDT FRI MAY 07 2004 VALID 081200Z - 091200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE ROC 20 SE ELM 15 S PSB 45 ESE FWA 20 SE BRL 50 WNW LWD 15 S CNK 25 S DDC 20 NNE AMA 40 NE HOB 35 WNW HOB 20 NE ROW 20 SSW CAO 40 SE GLD 20 WNW EAR 15 SSW 9V9 40 SW REJ 30 SE GDV 65 WNW MOT 20 NNW DVL 35 NW HIB 35 NNW RHI 50 SSE ESC 25 NNE MBS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW MSS RUT 10 E BOS ...CONT... 30 SSW CHS 55 WNW AND 5I3 DAY 15 ESE SPI 25 ESE STJ 20 ENE GAG 40 ESE LBB 45 NW DRT ...CONT... 35 E DUG TCS 45 S LVS IML 50 WNW MHN 40 WSW RAP RIW BOI 30 S ONP. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS THROUGH THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY...OH VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES AREA.... ...SYNOPSIS... THE CURRENT UPPER PATTERN WILL PERSIST WITH BELT OF STRONGER WESTERLIES OVER THE NRN THIRD OF THE NATION. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE STRONGER ZONAL FLOW WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE NRN TIER STATES. WEAK FLOW AND HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REMAINING TWO THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY. EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY WHERE A WEAK UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EWD. WRN PORTIONS OF THE FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM THE NERN U.S. WWD THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS WILL BEGIN RETREATING NWD AS A WARM FRONT. THE ERN PORTIONS OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL SETTLE SWD INTO THE CAROLINAS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EWD OUT OF THE NRN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE DAKOTAS SATURDAY NIGHT. THE DRYLINE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SRN AND CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. ...UPPER MS VALLEY THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY... STORMS MAY BE ONGOING EARLY SATURDAY N OF THE E-W SURFACE FRONT WITHIN ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION. THREAT FOR HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND MAY EXIST WITH THIS ACTIVITY. THE WARM SECTOR S OF THE BOUNDARY WILL DESTABILIZE DURING THE DAY AS SURFACE HEATING COMMENCES WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 60S SUPPORTING MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG OVER THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY INTO WRN PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER THE MID OR UPPER MS VALLEY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET ENHANCES WARM ADVECTION AND LIFT ALONG AND N OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. ACTIVITY WILL SUBSEQUENTLY SPREAD EWD INTO THE OH VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THE MAIN THREATS. ...NRN PLAINS... A COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH ERN MT AND THE DAKOTAS DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AS IT INTERCEPTS MOIST AXIS OVER THE WRN DAKOTAS. SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH INITIAL ACTIVITY...BUT STORMS MAY HAVE A TENDENCY TO EVOLVE INTO LINES OR CLUSTERS WITH TIME AS THEY CONTINUE EWD INTO THE DAKOTAS. DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. ...CNTRL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS... ISOLATED HIGH BASED STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF THE DRYLINE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITHIN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY DEEPLY MIXED INVERTED-V BOUNDARY LAYERS. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ...CAROLINAS... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SWD AND SETTLE INTO THE CAROLINAS SATURDAY. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES. MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING PEAK HEATING. THOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE WEAK...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES COULD SUPPORT PULSE SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THE MAIN THREATS. ..DIAL.. 05/07/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat May 8 07:32:45 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 08 May 2004 02:32:45 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200405080733.i487X4q30308@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 080730 SWODY2 SPC AC 080728 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0228 AM CDT SAT MAY 08 2004 VALID 091200Z - 101200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM GLD 25 W IML 50 NNW IML MHE AXN DLH CMX APN 40 NE MTC TOL CGX OTM FNB CNK GLD. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM UCA 45 WSW ALB MSV AOO CLE ROC UCA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ART GFL BID ...CONT... 25 NNE ECG SOP DHN 60 N PNS GLH LIT POF BWG 40 SE LUK FWA PIA P35 MHK CDS BGS DRT ...CONT... 30 ESE DUG SOW PGA SLC SUN 75 NNW WMC LMT RDM PDT MSO LWT 4BQ Y22 BIS 65 NNW DVL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF WESTERN NY/PA... ...NEB TO WESTERN NY/PA... RELATIVELY FAST WESTERLY MID LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES ON SUNDAY...WITH A STRONG UPPER TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA. PRIMARY SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL EXTEND FROM NEB INTO MN/WI...THEN EASTWARD ACROSS LOWER MI INTO NY/PA. THIS AXIS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE THE REGION HAVING A RISK OF ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS. ETA/GFS SOLUTIONS SUGGEST MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS WILL TRAVERSE THIS AXIS...ALTHOUGH TIMING AND LOCATION OF SYSTEMS IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. 00Z ETA GUIDANCE SHOWS ONE CLUSTER OVER LOWER MI AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...WHICH MAY SPREAD EASTWARD INTO NY/PA DURING THE AFTERNOON. AREA OF HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS FROM CENTRAL NEB INTO SOUTHERN WI. AIRMASS HERE WILL BECOME VERY UNSTABLE BY AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 2500-3500 J/KG. STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AND CONVERGENCE IN VICINITY OF SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS SUGGEST A RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN STRONGER CELLS. STORMS MAY PERSIST OVERNIGHT AND SPREAD AS FAR EAST AS LOWER MI. OTHER ISOLATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP SOUTHWARD ALONG THE DRYLINE ACROSS WESTERN KS THROUGH EASTERN NM. HOWEVER...WEAK FLOW ALOFT SHOULD PRECLUDE ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS IN THIS REGION. ..HART.. 05/08/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat May 8 17:36:45 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 08 May 2004 12:36:45 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200405081737.i48Hb2q25434@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 081735 SWODY2 SPC AC 081733 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1233 PM CDT SAT MAY 08 2004 VALID 091200Z - 101200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW GCK 15 E GLD LBF 30 N ABR TVF 35 ESE INL CMX 70 E MQT 40 NNW PLN HTL RFD 35 WNW OTM 25 WNW CNK 35 S DDC 35 WSW GCK. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE EWN 30 W RDU DHN 60 N PNS GLH LIT POF BWG 40 SE LUK FWA 30 NW PIA 25 NNW IRK 15 SSE CNK CDS BGS 40 NW DRT ...CONT... 30 ESE DUG SOW GCN 40 SSW RKS 30 S IDA SUN S80 MSO LWT 35 SW 4BQ 30 NNE RAP 15 WSW BIS 55 NE MOT ...CONT... 25 NNW SYR 35 NW ALB 10 SSW GON. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 S CRP AUS 20 E MWL ADM 45 SSE MLC 40 SW TXK 40 ESE LFK 20 SE BPT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNE ORF 35 N SHD 15 NE PIT FKL 40 NNE BFD ITH 20 SSE MSV 20 SW ISP. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS WRN GREAT LAKES/UPPER MIDWEST SWWD INTO WRN KS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTAL/ERN PA EWD INTO NJ AND THE DELMARVA REGION... ...SYNOPSIS... LONG WAVE PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE WITH RELATIVELY STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW PERSISTING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES....AND WEAK FLOW ELSEWHERE. A STRONG UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO ROTATE RAPIDLY EWD ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA AND INTO WESTERN ONTARIO. A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM SD EWD ACROSS THE SRN GREAT LAKES/PA AREA SUN MORNING...BUT WILL LIFT NWD DURING THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT SHIFTS EWD FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY...IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE CANADIAN UPPER TROUGH. ...PA EWD INTO THE DELMARVA AREA... STORMS THAT DEVELOP TODAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MO VALLEY REGION SHOULD TRACK EWD OVERNIGHT ALONG BAROCLINIC ZONE IN NRN OH/SRN GREAT LAKES AREA AS AN MCS. MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BE LOCATED NEAR WRN NY/NWRN PA AT 09/12Z...BUT STORMS MAY BE LOCATED SLIGHTLY FURTHER SWD CLOSER TO BOUNDARY LOCATION. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE A WIND THREAT SUNDAY MORNING AS CORFIDI VECTORS SHOW THE COMPLEX MOVING EWD AT 60 KT. HOWEVER...THE GREATER THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE DURING THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE STORMS MOVE SEWD INTO THE DELMARVA/NJ AREA. SURFACE BOUNDARY...CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WILL LIFT NEWD AND IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND ACROSS THE DELMARVA REGION BY AFTERNOON. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...MID/UPPER 60 DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN MLCAPE VALUES NEAR 3000 J/KG. UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING DRY AIR BETWEEN 500-700 MB ARE SUGGESTIVE OF A LINEAR SYSTEM BEING MAINTAINED ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY. WIND DAMAGE WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT...THOUGH THE STRONG INSTABILITY SHOULD ALSO SUPPORT SOME SEVERE HAIL. ...WRN GREAT LAKES/UPPER MS VALLEY SWWD INTO WRN KS... ALTHOUGH STRONGEST FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH CANADIAN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE UNITED STATES BORDER...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN MLCAPES FROM 2500 TO 3500 J/KG IN THE WARM SECTOR. STORMS MAY BE ONGOING ALONG THE COLD FRONT ACROSS PORTIONS OF ND/NWRN MN IN THE MORNING ...BUT MORE INTENSE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS SHOULD INITIALLY DEVELOP IN MN WHERE CONVERGENCE WILL BE THE STRONGEST NEAR THE WARM/COLD FRONT INTERSECTION. ALSO...THIS AREA WILL EXPERIENCE THE BEST COMBINATION OF STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR/INSTABILITY...WITH SUPERCELLS LIKELY. HOWEVER...LCL HEIGHTS WILL BE RELATIVELY HIGH...SO HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. THE VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MLCAPES NEAR 3000 J/KG INDICATES THAT SOME OF THE HAIL COULD BE QUITE LARGE. STORMS SHOULD SHIFT NEWD INTO WI OVER OVERNIGHT AS THE STRONG FORCING LIFTS INTO THAT AREA. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP SWWD ALONG THE DRYLINE ACROSS NEB/KS AS SURFACE CONVERGENCE INCREASES DUE TO HEATING AND MIXING. ALTHOUGH THE WINDS FIELDS WILL BE WEAKER THAN FURTHER NORTH... VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT...MODERATE INSTABILITY AND RELATIVELY LARGE TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR DAMAGING DOWNDRAFTS. WITHOUT UPPER LEVEL FORCING...THESE STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN BY MID EVENING. ..IMY.. 05/08/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun May 9 08:22:24 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 09 May 2004 03:22:24 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200405090822.i498Meq05215@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 090723 SWODY2 SPC AC 090721 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0221 AM CDT SUN MAY 09 2004 VALID 101200Z - 111200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NW 3B1 10 S MWN ALB FKL FWA SPI SZL P28 LBL LAA AKO CYS DGW 81V 45 NNE RAP 10 N MHN OLU LSE MQT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE MOB LUL ESF 25 S LCH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM WAL DAN AND RMG BNA CGI 30 NNW OKC 50 W ABI SAT 40 NE CRP ...CONT... 40 E DUG 65 NNW SVC SAF ALS ASE VEL ENV LOL MHS LMT BOI MQM 3HT 65 NNW GGW ...CONT... 65 NNW DVL MBG 10 WNW 9V9 YKN SPW EAU 10 NE IWD. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ACROSS THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION INTO PARTS OF NY/VT/NH... ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN OVER THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES ON MONDAY AS STRONG UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS WILL RESULT IN A TRANSITION TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE PLAINS...AS WELL AS UPPER RIDGING OVER MUCH OF THE MIDWEST AND UPPER MS VALLEY. A LARGE AREA WILL EXPERIENCE A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON DAY2...BUT A GENERAL LACK OF FOCUS FOR STORMS WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE CONCENTRATION OF REPORTS. ...IA/NEB/KS/MO... MAIN SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM WESTERN KS INTO SOUTHERN IA BY AFTERNOON. AIRMASS SOUTH OF THE FRONT WILL BE VERY UNSTABLE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 60S AND MLCAPE VALUES OVER 2500 J/KG. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD ACROSS KS. A COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING AND A RATHER WEAK CAP SHOULD ALLOW FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. MID LEVEL WINDS AND RESULTANT DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE RATHER WEAK IN THIS REGION. HOWEVER...DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SUGGEST A RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN STRONGER CELLS. ...EASTERN WY AND WESTERN SD/NEB... SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE ACROSS WY/SD BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS QUICKLY DRAWING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION. SCATTERED HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN WY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND SPREAD EASTWARD TOWARD THE BLACK HILLS DURING THE EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL APPEAR POSSIBLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS AREA. ...WI/IL INTO NY/VT/NH... MAIN SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL EXTEND FROM IA ACROSS LOWER MI INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. AIRMASS SOUTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE WARM AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. MODEL GUIDANCE IS QUITE VARIED ACROSS THIS REGION IN REGARDS TO TIMING OF UVVS AND PRECIP EVENTS. HOWEVER...FAVORABLE INSTABILITY/SHEAR COMBINATIONS WILL PROMOTE A RISK OF AFTERNOON/EVENING STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREAT. ..HART.. 05/09/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun May 9 17:28:24 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 09 May 2004 12:28:24 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200405091728.i49HSbq22172@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 091726 SWODY2 SPC AC 091724 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1224 PM CDT SUN MAY 09 2004 VALID 101200Z - 111200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 N EFK LEB 10 W GON 20 ESE SBY 45 N RIC 20 SSW ZZV 35 SSW FDY 20 WNW LAF 15 NNW SPI 40 N SGF 30 N BVO 15 WSW LBL 20 NW LAA 25 N DEN 35 SSE CPR 25 SW GCC 10 SSW 4BQ 50 NE 4BQ 40 SW Y22 PHP 25 N BUB OMA 25 N DSM 35 NW APN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSW WAL 25 NE DAN 15 E SPA 40 ENE ABY 25 SE TLH ...CONT... ELP 40 E 4CR TAD 30 SSW 4FC 30 ENE CAG 50 WNW RKS ENV LOL MHS LMT BKE 50 S MSO 35 NW HLN 55 ENE CTB ...CONT... 55 NNW MOT BIS 9V9 YKN 45 S SPW LSE 10 E MQT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS EWD ACROSS MIDDLE MS VALLEY EWD INTO PA/NY AND WRN PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND... ...SYNOPSIS... ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN OVER THE NRN PART OF THE COUNTRY AS AN UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE PACIFIC NW/NRN ROCKIES. ALTHOUGH THE UPPER FLOW WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION FROM WLY TO SWLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE PLAIN STATES...THE STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN RESTRICTED TO THE NRN/WRN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY. A COLD FRONT WILL STRETCH FROM THE GREAT LAKES SEWD INTO KS AND THEN NWWD BACK INTO CO. ...WRN HIGH PLAINS... COLD FRONT WILL BE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE AREA AND ELY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TO 20 TO 30 KT AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER WY. UPPER 50 AND LOWER 60 DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO ADVECT NWWD INTO THE AREA AND COMBINED WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...STRONG INSTABILITY SHOULD BE PRESENT BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL WINDS WILL BE WLY AT ONLY 25-30 KT...STRONG VEERING IN THE LOWER 3 KM WILL RESULT IN 50 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THE STRENGTH OF THE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS...WITH HAIL LARGE THE MAIN THREAT. HOWEVER...A RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR WOULD ALSO FAVOR A FEW TORNADOES. STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET MAY ALSO RESULT IN STORMS EVOLVING INTO AN MCS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A THREAT FOR WIND DAMAGE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEB AND KS. ...CENTRAL KS NEWD INTO ERN GREAT LAKES AREA... MODELS SUGGEST THAT ONGOING CONVECTION MAY BE LOCATED ACROSS PORTIONS OF KS/MO IN THE MORNING. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A CONTINUED FLOW OF GULF MOISTURE...AIR MASS SHOULD BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE BY AFTERNOON. FRONTAL CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO LIFT CAP WITH WIDESPREAD CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT. ALTHOUGH THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY INDICATES A THREAT FOR HAIL AND A FEW DAMAGING DOWNDRAFTS. THE LACK OF ANY UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND WEAK SHEAR INDICATE STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER DARK. ...NY AND WRN PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND... ALTHOUGH COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT...PAST COUPLE OF MODELS RUNS ARE CONSISTENT IN LIFTING THE WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA BY MONDAY MORNING WITH A SURFACE TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 5OS/LOWER IN THE OHIO VALLEY SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND RESULT IN MLCAPE VALUES FROM 1000 TO 2000 J/KG. UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW INDICATES A THUNDERSTORM LINE MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH WITH WIND DAMAGE THE MAIN THREAT. ...PA/NRN DELMARVA REGION... SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND MOVE EWD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE WIND FIELDS WILL BE WEAKER ALOFT THAN ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...THE INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BE STRONGER AND FAVORABLE FOR STORMS WITH WIND/HAIL DAMAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. ..IMY.. 05/09/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon May 10 07:24:16 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 10 May 2004 02:24:16 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200405100724.i4A7OSq22782@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 100721 SWODY2 SPC AC 100720 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0220 AM CDT MON MAY 10 2004 VALID 111200Z - 121200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E DLH 20 ESE FRM 40 NNW OMA 45 S HLC 30 WSW CDS 15 N LBB 35 ENE CVS 35 ESE AKO 35 ESE CYS 35 SW DGW 35 N DGW 30 SE RAP 45 SE BIS 75 NE DVL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E SLO 25 E MEM 10 WNW GLH 35 NE LFK 15 S SAT 25 NW JCT 25 WNW MWL 30 ESE END 30 SSE CNK 20 WSW OTM 20 E PIA 30 E SLO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE DOV LYH 30 N AND ATL 10 SE PNS ...CONT... 90 SSW P07 20 S CNM 35 SSE RTN 25 ENE 4BL 20 SSW SGU 20 WNW ELY BNO 15 NNE YKM 35 N 4OM ...CONT... 40 NW CTB 25 SSE 3HT 45 SW 4BQ 30 SE Y22 60 N DVL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS STATES ON TUESDAY... ...NORTHERN PLAINS... LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE ROCKIES ON TUESDAY...WITH BAND OF STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS EXTENDING FROM CO INTO MN. MAIN SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL ALSO LIE IN THIS AXIS...PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. AIRMASS ALONG AND SOUTH OF FRONT WILL BE MOIST AND VERY UNSTABLE WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OVER 2500 J/KG. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON FROM NORTHWEST NEB INTO EASTERN ND AND NORTHWEST MN. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS THROUGH THE EVENING AS SECONDARY COLD FRONT SURGES INTO AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THIS REGION SHOW SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. STORMS WILL LIKELY ORGANIZE INTO ONE OR MORE MCSS AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF NEB/SD/MN OVERNIGHT. ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON TUESDAY...HELPING TO MAINTAIN AT LEAST LOW 60S DEWPOINTS OVER THE EASTERN TX PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN KS. FULL SUNSHINE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ALONG THE DRYLINE WITH AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OF 2500+ J/KG. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG DRYLINE FROM THE TX PANHANDLE NORTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN KS INTO SOUTHWEST NEB. COMBINATION OF HIGH INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL. ..HART.. 05/10/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon May 10 09:16:04 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 10 May 2004 04:16:04 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200405100916.i4A9GAq08728@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 100912 SWODY2 SPC AC 100910 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0410 AM CDT MON MAY 10 2004 VALID 111200Z - 121200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E DLH 20 ESE FRM 40 NNW OMA 45 S HLC 30 WSW CDS 15 N LBB 35 ENE CVS 35 ESE AKO 35 ESE CYS 35 SW DGW 35 N DGW 30 SE RAP 45 SE BIS 75 NE DVL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E PIA 20 WSW OTM 30 SSE CNK 30 ESE END 25 WNW MWL 25 NW JCT 15 S SAT 35 NE LFK 10 WNW GLH 25 E MEM 30 E SLO 20 E PIA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW CTB 25 SSE 3HT 45 SW 4BQ 30 SE Y22 60 N DVL ...CONT... 30 SSE DOV LYH 30 N AND ATL 10 SE PNS ...CONT... 90 SSW P07 20 S CNM 35 SSE RTN 25 ENE 4BL 20 SSW SGU 20 WNW ELY BNO 15 NNE YKM 35 N 4OM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS STATES ON TUESDAY... CORRECTED FOR GRAPHICS ERROR ...NORTHERN PLAINS... LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE ROCKIES ON TUESDAY...WITH BAND OF STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS EXTENDING FROM CO INTO MN. MAIN SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL ALSO LIE IN THIS AXIS...PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. AIRMASS ALONG AND SOUTH OF FRONT WILL BE MOIST AND VERY UNSTABLE WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OVER 2500 J/KG. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON FROM NORTHWEST NEB INTO EASTERN ND AND NORTHWEST MN. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS THROUGH THE EVENING AS SECONDARY COLD FRONT SURGES INTO AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THIS REGION SHOW SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. STORMS WILL LIKELY ORGANIZE INTO ONE OR MORE MCSS AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF NEB/SD/MN OVERNIGHT. ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON TUESDAY...HELPING TO MAINTAIN AT LEAST LOW 60S DEWPOINTS OVER THE EASTERN TX PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN KS. FULL SUNSHINE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ALONG THE DRYLINE WITH AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OF 2500+ J/KG. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG DRYLINE FROM THE TX PANHANDLE NORTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN KS INTO SOUTHWEST NEB. COMBINATION OF HIGH INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL. ..HART.. 05/10/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon May 10 17:19:50 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 10 May 2004 12:19:50 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200405101720.i4AHK0q09068@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 101718 SWODY2 SPC AC 101716 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1216 PM CDT MON MAY 10 2004 VALID 111200Z - 121200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW BIS 20 S DVL TVF 35 S INL 30 SSW ELO 40 SE DLH 35 N RST OLU 40 ENE HLC GAG CDS 40 ESE LBB 35 W LBB 35 ENE CVS 45 WNW GLD 50 ESE CYS 45 WNW BFF 65 SSE 81V 20 W Y22 40 NW BIS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE DOV LYH 30 N AND ATL 10 SE PNS ...CONT... 85 S MRF 30 WSW HOB 35 N TCC 35 W TAD CEZ 20 SSE GCN 40 SSW LAS 65 NNW BIH 15 SSE LOL 50 N BAM 45 SW MQM 35 ENE WEY 30 NW SHR 35 NE MLS 60 NNW ISN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE DBQ ALO 30 WNW DSM MHK 25 ESE ICT TUL 25 ESE FYV 55 ESE HRO ARG CGI PIA 20 ESE DBQ. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER TROUGH IN THE WEST WILL AMPLIFY AND SHIFT EWD INTO THE ROCKIES ...RESULTING IN A SURFACE LOW TO MOVE FROM WY/MT EWD ACROSS ND. THIS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS...WHILE A STATIONARY FRONT...CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY REGION...SHOULD BE LOCATED ACROSS THE NRN STATES AS A WARM FRONT. ...NRN PLAINS... WIDESPREAD PCPN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE ONGOING IN ND DURING THE MORNING...IN ZONE OF STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION. THE LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL LIFT NEWD INTO SRN CANADA DURING THE DAY...BUT THE SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. THE AIRMASS ALONG AND SOUTH OF FRONT WILL BE MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE...DUE TO STEEP LAPSE RATES AND AS LOWER/MID 60 DEWPOINTS IN THE SRN PLAINS ADVECT NWD INTO THE AREA. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONT FROM ND SWWD INTO WRN NEB AS A THERMAL TROUGH ALOFT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE WRN U.S. UPPER TROUGH...APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. STORMS MAY ORGANIZE INTO ONE OR MORE MCS/S AND TRACK NEWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEB/SD/MN OVERNIGHT. ...WRN KS SWD INTO THE TX PANHANDLE... STRONG SLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION... MAINTAINING AT LEAST UPPER 50/LOWER 60S DEWPOINTS. LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN STEEP AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP TO HEAT/DESTABILIZE THE AIR MASS...WITH MLCAPES FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. MODELS INDICATE A WEAK 500 MB TROUGH MOVING INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THIS SHOULD INCREASE THE CONVERGENCE SUFFICIENTLY FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE DRYLINE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW INVERTED-V PROFILES FROM THE SURFACE TO 700 MB...WHICH WOULD SUGGEST STRONG DOWNDRAFTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS. HOWEVER...THE STEEP LAPSE RATES WOULD ALSO SUPPORT HAIL. ..IMY.. 05/10/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue May 11 07:09:49 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 11 May 2004 02:09:49 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200405110709.i4B79vq04337@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 110707 SWODY2 SPC AC 110705 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0205 AM CDT TUE MAY 11 2004 VALID 121200Z - 131200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E MQT VOK SZL JLN 50 NW MLC OKC GAG DDC SLN 10 SSE LNK MSP 15 N ELO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE MSS 20 SE RUT 30 E ISP ...CONT... WAL DAN CAE 70 WNW SAV MGR 30 WNW PFN ...CONT... 20 NNE GLS TYR SPS LBL TAD CNY ENV BNO 65 ENE RDM ALW BTM LVM SHR PHP MHN EAR OFK HON GFK 65 W RRT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...KS/OK... LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES ON WEDNESDAY WITH RELATIVELY STRONG SOUTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...MAIN SURFACE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM NORTHERN MN ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEB TO A LOW IN SOUTH CENTRAL KS. SURFACE DRYLINE WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD FROM LOW ACROSS WESTERN OK INTO NORTHWEST TX. AIRMASS SOUTH OF FRONT AND EAST OF DRYLINE WILL BE VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S AND MLCAPE VALUES OVER 3000 J/KG. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ONLY A WEAK CAP...ALLOWING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT OVER KS...AND PERHAPS ISOLATED CELLS ALONG THE DRYLINE IN OK. LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE A WEAKNESS FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER. HOWEVER...DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR INDICATE A RISK OF SLOW MOVING SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. THIS AREA MAY REQUIRE AN UPGRADE TO MODERATE RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS. ...MO/IA/MN/WI... BAND OF RELATIVELY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL WINDS WILL LIE ATOP SURFACE COLD FRONT OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. POCKETS OF STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG/. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP FROM NORTHWEST MO INTO NORTHERN MN ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THIS REGION...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE. ..HART.. 05/11/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue May 11 17:41:53 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 11 May 2004 12:41:53 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200405111741.i4BHfxq15109@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 111740 SWODY2 SPC AC 111738 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1238 PM CDT TUE MAY 11 2004 VALID 121200Z - 131200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 ENE MQT ESC OSH UIN JEF SGF UMN OKC FSI LTS GAG DDC GCK LAA LHX 30 NE COS 30 SE CYS 20 S SNY 55 N RSL CNK BIE OMA 40 WSW SPW FSD ATY 50 E FAR INL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE MSS RUT ISP ...CONT... WAL RIC DAN GSO CAE 75 W SAV MGR PFN ...CONT... GLS LFK TYR DUA 45 N MWL BWD SJT CDS 30 E LBL TAD CNY DPG OWY BNO PDT ALW BTM 30 NE RAP MHN LBF EAR GRI OLU OFK MHE HON GFK 25 WNW RRT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS UPPER MS VALLEY TO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... IN MID-UPPER LEVELS...MEAN TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER WRN CONUS BUT BEGIN TO DEAMPLIFY SOMEWHAT LATE IN PERIOD. EMBEDDED CYCLONE -- NOW EVIDENT ON MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER WRN MT -- IS FCST TO FILL SLOWLY AS IT DRIFTS ENEWD ACROSS MT THROUGH DAY-2. SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW LOCATED SW OF THAT LOW OVER NV IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW CYCLONICALLY CURVED PATH TOWARD NRN PLAINS BY 13/00Z...THEN DEVELOP ITS OWN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AND TAKE OVER AS PRIMARY MID/UPPER LOW AS IT MOVES INTO MANITOBA/ONT BORDER REGION LATE IN PERIOD. A FEW SHORTWAVE PERTURBATIONS MAY EJECT NEWD AMIDST ZONE OF SWLY FLOW...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN ANY MODEL PROGS OF SUCH SMALL SCALE FEATURES THIS FAR IN ADVANCE. IN ANY EVENT...BROAD BELT OF ENHANCED MID-UPPER FLOW -- E.G. 65-75 KT AT 500 MB AT 12/18Z -- WILL CONTRIBUTE TO FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR SEVERE OVER LARGE SWATH OF CENTRAL CONUS. AT SFC...CYCLONE NOW OVER WRN SD WILL WEAKEN SOMEWHAT TODAY WITH CYCLOGENESIS FARTHER S OVER CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. HOWEVER...NRN LOW SHOULD STRENGTHEN CONSIDERABLY AGAIN AROUND BEGINNING OF PERIOD -- OVER WRN/NRN MN...AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES. MEANWHILE...TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD OVER CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY. FRONT SHOULD REACH CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...NRN IL/MO...NWRN OK AND NERN NM BY END OF PERIOD. FRONT AND DRYLINE SHOULD INTERSECT AT SRN CYCLONE -- EXPECTED INVOF SRN KS/CO BORDER AT 13/00Z. DRYLINE WILL EXTEND SEWD ACROSS WRN OK THEN SSWWD THROUGH W TX. ...UPPER MIDWEST TO CENTRAL PLAINS... POTENTIAL FOR EARLY MORNING MCS EXISTS NEAR FRONT -- PER DAY-1 OUTLOOK. ISOLATED SEVERE WIND/HAIL POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH MORNING HOURS. ASSOCIATED CLOUD/PRECIP FIELD MAY ALTER EFFECTIVE FRONTAL POSITION AND/OR SPEED OF DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION...SO SUCH UNCERTAINTIES COMPEL SOME BROAD-BRUSHING OF SEVERE PROBABILITIES THIS REGION. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSTMS IN ONE OR MORE LINES ARE POSSIBLE DURING AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG/AHEAD OF SFC BAROCLINIC ZONE. ISALLOBARIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH MN CYCLOGENESIS WILL ENHANCE LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS ADJOINING WARM SECTOR...OVER UPPER MIDWEST. WIND DAMAGE APPEARS TO BE MAIN THREAT BASED ON NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES AND BACKING WITH HEIGHT PROGGED THROUGH MID-UPPER TROPOSPHERE. HOWEVER...IT IS TOO SOON TO RULE OUT POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES GIVEN BACKED FLOW E-NE OF DEEPENING SFC LOW AND AT LEAST MARGINALLY FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMICS. LOW-MID 60S SFC DEW POINTS AND DIABATIC HEATING WILL YIELD 500-1500 J/KG MLCAPE IN NARROW CORRIDOR JUST AHEAD OF FRONT. SEVERE PROBABILITIES SHOULD DIMINISH WITH SWD EXTENT ALONG COLD FRONT THROUGH IA/SERN NEB/NWRN MO/NERN KS AREA AS CONVERGENCE WEAKENS...THEN INCREASE AGAIN WITH PROXIMITY TO S-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS CYCLONE. ...CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS... CONVECTION SHOULD BREAK CAP DURING AFTERNOON INVOF SFC LOW...AND PERHAPS IN FORM OF ISOLATED SUPERCELLS SWD ALONG DRYLINE THROUGH PORTIONS WRN OK AND NW TX. DRYLINE RELATED SEVERE PROBABILITIES BECOME MORE CONDITIONAL AWAY FROM SFC LOW BECAUSE OF CAPPING AND WEAKENING LOW-MIDLEVEL FLOW WITH SWD EXTENT. WITH PRIMARY LARGE SCALE FORCING REMOVED FROM THIS AREA...LOW LEVEL FLOW IS PROGGED TO BE WEAK - GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS IN BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS WILL MITIGATE HODOGRAPH SIZE...THOUGH SOME STRONGER WINDS ARE LIKELY CLOSE TO SFC LOW. 30-40 KT MIDLEVEL FLOW FROM RED RIVER NWD...AND NEARLY 50 KT OVER SW KS...SUGGESTS SUPERCELL POTENTIAL. 8-9 DEG C/KM MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 50S/LOW 60S F SFC DEW POINTS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO 1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE. SEPARATE AREA OF SEVERE DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE MID-LATE AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS ERN CO...W THRU NE OF SFC LOW AND BEHIND SFC COLD FRONT. ACTIVITY IN THIS REGION MAY BEGIN AS DISCRETE SUPERCELLS THEN SHIFT EWD INTO PORTIONS WRN KS LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING AS TSTM CLUSTER. ALTHOUGH POST-FRONTAL CAA WILL REDUCE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY RELATIVE TO AIR MASS E OF DRYLINE. HOWEVER... INSOLATION AND MOIST ADVECTION AMIDST NELY/ELY FLOW WILL YIELD 500-1000 MLCAPE BY MIDAFTERNOON. BACKED POST-FRONTAL FLOW WILL ENHANCE BOTH LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND LIFT...BY MEANS OF UPSLOPE COMPONENT. ..EDWARDS.. 05/11/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed May 12 07:29:38 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 12 May 2004 02:29:38 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200405120729.i4C7Thq17578@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 120727 SWODY2 SPC AC 120725 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0225 AM CDT WED MAY 12 2004 VALID 131200Z - 141200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM END FLV IRK UIN 10 N STL HOT 45 SE DAL BWD SJT 50 ENE BGS CDS 45 W CSM END. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ESE P07 55 E LBB 50 ESE AMA TCC ALS RKS IDA MQM 45 S LVM GCC LIC LAA 10 SE DDC CNK SUX 10 SSW RWF HIB 60 ENE ELO ...CONT... 50 N BML 10 S PSM ...CONT... ORF CAE VLD 35 WNW CTY. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MS VALLEY... ...NORTH TX/OK/KS/MO/WRN AR... LARGE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL ROTATE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON THURSDAY. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE LOCATION OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES DUE TO UNKNOWN EFFECTS OF DAY1 CONVECTION. HOWEVER...PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL SAG SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHWEST OK WITH WARM FRONT EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD FROM LOW INTO NORTHWEST MO. AIRMASS ALONG AND SOUTH OF FRONT WILL BE VERY WARM/MOIST WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND STRONG DAYTIME HEATING. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM SOUTHWEST MO INTO NORTHWEST TX SHOW EXTREME INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 4500-5000 J/KG AND LITTLE CAP. SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS AXIS BY MID AFTERNOON AND SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN/EASTERN OK AND NORTH TX. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG WITH 500MB WIND SPEEDS GENERALLY BELOW 35 KNOTS. HOWEVER...DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND POTENTIAL FOR OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM DAY1 CONVECTION SUPPORT A RISK OF SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. ACTIVITY MAY ORGANIZE INTO A LINEAR MCS DURING THE EVENING AS IT SPREADS INTO WESTERN AR AND NORTHEAST TX. ...WEST CENTRAL TX... SOUTHWARD EXTENT OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE DRYLINE IS UNCERTAIN DUE TO WEAK FORCING AND MID LEVEL CAP. HOWEVER...STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AND A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL EXIST ALONG THE DRYLINE FROM DRT TO SPS. IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP...THEY WOULD LIKELY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE. ..HART.. 05/12/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed May 12 17:24:40 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 12 May 2004 12:24:40 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200405121724.i4CHOhq08736@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 121720 SWODY2 SPC AC 121718 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1218 PM CDT WED MAY 12 2004 VALID 131200Z - 141200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW P28 35 ESE SLN 25 ENE MKC 20 WNW COU 10 WNW TBN 45 N TXK 40 SW CLL 40 NNW HDO 65 SW SJT 50 ENE BGS 25 ESE CDS 20 E GAG 35 WNW P28. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 N BML 10 S PSM ...CONT... 30 NNE SSI 35 WNW CTY ...CONT... 40 SSW P07 35 NE BGS 30 N CDS TCC ALS RKS IDA MQM 45 S LVM GCC LIC LAA 10 SE DDC CNK 35 NE OMA 15 WNW RST 40 WNW RHI 25 NNW MQT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS FROM S CENTRAL KS INTO CENTRAL TX.... ...SYNOPSIS... LONG WAVE TROUGH EXTENDING N-S OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION WILL MOVE EWD DURING THE DY2 PERIOD. COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO CENTRAL KS AND THE OK PANHANDLE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...THEN REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL PARTS OF KS INTO THE TX/OK PANHANDLES PRIOR TO THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. MODELS ADVANCE SWRN HALF OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY RAPIDLY SEWD LATE THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON EXTENDING FROM SERN KS INTO NWRN TX BY 14/00Z...THEN FROM NWRN LOWER MI SWWD INTO THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY BY 14/12Z. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME LARGE HAIL WILL MOVE THROUGH PARTS OF KS...OK AND NRN AND CENTRAL TX DURING THE PERIOD. ...SRN PLAINS FROM SRN KS INTO CENTRAL TX... QUESTION FOR THIS AREA IS THE AMOUNT AND MODE OF CONVECTION AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. QUASISTATIONARY FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM SERN IA AND NERN KS TO A LOW OVER NWRN OK...THEN CONTINUE AS A COLD FRONT SWWD AND WWD INTO THE SRN ROCKIES. LOW LEVEL JET OF 45-55 KT IS FORECAST EARLY ON FROM EXTREME S TX NWD INTO S CENTRAL KS ENHANCING LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL ZONE. ALSO...A WEAK LOW LEVEL JET OF 30 KT IS DEPICTED FROM THE SRN PLATEAU INTO SWRN OK ADVANCING WELL MIXED AIR AND ENHANCING CONFLUENCE JUST AHEAD OF THE DRY LINE OVER THE ERN TX PANHANDLE SWWD INTO W TX. MID LEVEL JET OF 50-60 KT IS EXPECTED TO BE FROM SERN AZ NEWD OVER NWRN KS AND NERN NE ENHANCING DEEP LAYER SHEAR NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. IN ADDITION...LOW LEVEL JET WILL ALSO PROVIDE POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH CAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG. GIVEN CONDITIONS PRIOR TO THE START OF THE OUTLOOK...WOULD ANTICIPATE AN OVER NIGHT MCS OVER KS PLACING CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS PARTS OF S CENTRAL KS INTO W CENTRAL AND CENTRAL OK. SOME DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL COULD BE EXPECTED EARLY IN THE PERIOD IN AREA WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS PRESENT ON THE NRN EDGE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY NEAR THE BOUNDARY. COLD FRONT WILL THEN ADVANCE SEWD BY AFTERNOON AS MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PLAINS DEVELOPING AN INTENSE LINE OF ACTIVITY FROM NERN OK INTO NWRN TX. GIVEN THAT DYNAMICS PULL NEWD BEHIND THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON...THERE MAY BE A FEW ISOLATED TORNADOES INITIALLY...BUT THE MAIN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME LARGE HAIL. ...IL INTO SERN WI/SWRN LOWER MI... COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ADVANCE EWD INTO NWRN LOWER MI SWWD INTO NERN MO. MODELS INDICATE DAYTIME HEATING WILL DESTABILIZE AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH CAPE BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500 J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAK AS MAIN ACTIVITY DEVELOPS OVER THE SRN PLAINS. BUT...MARGINAL DYNAMICS AND INSTABILITY INDICATES THAT SOME HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS COULD ACCOMPANY ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ...S AND SERN TX... MORNING ETA MODEL INDICATES THAT CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY POSSIBLY FROM AFTERNOON PLAINS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE SEWD INTO SERN TX OVERNIGHT ON THURSDAY. MODELS INDICATE THAT AIR MASS WILL BE FAIRLY UNSTABLE WITH CAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG. SFC COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY COULD RESULT IN DAMAGING WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH LEADING LINE. ..MCCARTHY.. 05/12/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu May 13 07:24:03 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 13 May 2004 02:24:03 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200405130724.i4D7O4q17837@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 130721 SWODY2 SPC AC 130719 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0219 AM CDT THU MAY 13 2004 VALID 141200Z - 151200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM COD PHP MHN AKO GUC VEL 50 WSW BPI JAC COD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ACY LYH MGM 20 E GPT ...CONT... DRT ABI TUL COU MKE 50 WNW ANJ. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...MI/OH... BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES ON FRIDAY...WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING EASTWARD ACROSS THE MS VALLEY. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RESULTANT INSTABILITY WILL BE MUCH LESS ON DAY2 THAN PREVIOUS DAYS WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000 J/KG OR LESS FROM LOWER MI INTO EASTERN TX. RELATIVELY STRONG WIND FIELDS MAY ALLOW ISOLATED STRONG STORMS TO PRODUCE GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS OVER PARTS OF LOWER MI AND NORTHERN OH ON FRIDAY...BUT NO ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED. ...SOUTH TX... ONE AREA WHERE STRONG INSTABILITY WILL PERSIST ON FRIDAY WILL BE OVER SOUTH TX...WHERE VERY WARM/MOIST SURFACE CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN MLCAPE VALUES OVER 3000 J/KG. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ALONG FRONT OVER CENTRAL TX AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...WITH ACTIVITY SPREADING SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTH TX DURING THE AFTERNOON. LOW/MID LEVEL WINDS WILL BE RATHER WEAK...SUGGESTING SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION IS UNLIKELY. HOWEVER...HOT SURFACE TEMPS AND DEGREE OF INSTABILITY COULD POSE A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS IN A FEW CELLS. THIS AREA WILL BE MONITORED IN LATER OUTLOOKS FOR POSSIBLE UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK IF VERTICAL SHEAR IS SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. ..HART.. 05/13/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat May 15 07:47:05 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 15 May 2004 02:47:05 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200405150746.i4F7kwn05187@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 150743 SWODY2 SPC AC 150741 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0241 AM CDT SAT MAY 15 2004 VALID 161200Z - 171200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSW BFF 40 WNW CDR 40 SSE AXN 35 W IWD 30 W IMT 20 N DBQ 15 NE DSM 20 WNW MHK GAG PVW 40 ENE TCC 15 WNW EHA 40 WNW GLD 45 SSW BFF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NE HVR 50 E LWT 45 SSE GDV 40 NE Y22 35 SE TVF 45 E INL ...CONT... 20 NE ANJ 30 E JVL 10 SE OTM 45 SSW OJC 45 S LTS 55 SSE MAF 40 ESE P07 ...CONT... 25 S DMN 40 W ONM 25 ENE LVS 30 SW LIC 40 SW LAR 45 S BPI 35 W OWY 40 S BNO 55 WSW PDT 30 NE BLI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E ORF 15 N SOP 45 N AGS 30 SE MCN AYS 20 SSW SSI ...CONT... 45 ENE PSX 15 WNW SHV 35 WSW MEM 50 NE PAH 55 NW HTS 45 WSW MRB 25 NE NEL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL PLNS AND UPR MS VLY... ...SYNOPSIS... LOW AMPLITUDE WSWLY FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE LWR 48 ON SUNDAY...S AND E OF SLOWLY EVOLVING BLOCK ALONG THE BC CST. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN THIS JET WILL CROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE RCKYS AND PLNS DURING THE PERIOD. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT OF THESE FEATURES AS FAR AS SEVERE WEATHER IS CONCERNED IS NOW LOCATED OVER THE E PACIFIC NEAR 40N/135W. LEAD PORTION OF THIS IMPULSE SHOULD MOVE FROM WY INTO THE ERN DAKS DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...WHILE LINGERING/MORE WRN PART SHEARS E ALONG MUCH THE SAME TRACK LATER SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY. IN RESPONSE TO STRENGTHENING WLY FLOW ALOFT...EXPECT INCREASED LEE TROUGHING E OF THE CNTRL RCKYS DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HRS. A SURFACE WAVE SHOULD EMERGE OVER WRN NEB EARLY SUNDAY AND MOVE ENE INTO THE UPR MS VLY BY EARLY MONDAY...AHEAD OF LEAD UPPER DISTURBANCE. LEE TROUGHING LIKELY WILL PERSIST...HOWEVER...OVER NE CO/WRN KS LATER SUNDAY AS REMAINING PART OF UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES REGION. ...NEB/WRN IA/SRN SD INTO UPR MS VLY AND THE SRN HI PLNS... A W/E ORIENTED FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD STRENGTHEN OVER THE NRN NEB/NW IA AREA DURING THE PERIOD AS A RESULT OF /1/ SWD MOTION OF BAROCLINIC ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH NRN STREAM JET IN CANADA AND /2/ NWD REDEVELOPMENT OF FRONT NOW STALLING IN THE LWR MS VLY. THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR PERSISTENT WARM ADVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD AS LEE TROUGH DEEPENS E OF THE RCKYS. SCATTERED AREAS OF ELEVATED WARM ADVECTION THUNDER MAY BE IN PROGRESS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD N OF FRONT OVER SD. MEAGER MOISTURE SUPPLY SHOULD LIMIT THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL WITH THIS ACTIVITY. LATER IN THE DAY...COMBINATION OF SURFACE HEATING...FRONTAL UPLIFT AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH PASSING SHORTWAVE IMPULSES SHOULD LEAD TO SURFACE-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS CNTRL/ERN NEB AND PERHAPS SRN SD. OTHER MORE WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS MAY FORM ALONG ERN BORDER OF DEEPLY MIXED ENVIRONMENT EXTENDING S ALONG LEE TROUGH FROM WRN NEB TO THE SRN HI PLNS. STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...40 KT DEEP WLY SHEAR AND INCREASING MOISTURE INFLOW /850 MB DEWPOINTS INCREASING TO AOA 12C/ WILL LIKELY SUPPORT SUSTAINED/ORGANIZED STORMS...INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL/HIGH WIND. THIS THREAT SHOULD BE GREATEST IN CNTRL/ERN NEB...WHERE FORCING AND DESTABILIZATION WILL BE MAXIMIZED. DEPENDING UPON RAPIDITY OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RETURN...A LIMITED THREAT WILL ALSO EXIST FOR COUPLE TORNADOES. UPSCALE DEVELOPMENT INTO ONE OR TWO MCS WILL PROBABLY OCCUR SUNDAY EVENING AS CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION AND FAIRLY LARGE TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS FAVOR STRONG COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT/FORWARD PROPAGATION E/NEWD INTO SRN MN AND WI. ..CORFIDI.. 05/15/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat May 15 17:36:58 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 15 May 2004 12:36:58 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200405151736.i4FHaoo06947@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 151734 SWODY2 SPC AC 151732 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1232 PM CDT SAT MAY 15 2004 VALID 161200Z - 171200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNW PVW 45 NE CVS 45 ENE TCC 20 NW EHA 35 ENE LAA 45 ESE AKO 20 SW SNY BFF 35 WSW CDR 40 N CDR 40 NE ATY 35 W IWD 40 N RHI 25 E RHI 15 ESE CWA 20 SSE VOK 40 NW DBQ 30 NE DSM 15 NNW MHK GAG 40 ESE AMA 40 NNW PVW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW ANJ 35 W TVC 15 W MKE 30 E P35 25 WNW FSI 45 W SJT 35 SE P07 ...CONT... 30 S DMN 15 NE TCS 35 SSE SAF 10 S RTN 25 NW LHX 25 SE DEN 40 SW LAR 45 S BPI 35 W OWY 95 SSE BNO 20 WSW BNO 20 NE BLI ...CONT... 35 NNW HVR 60 NNE LWT 45 WNW MLS 45 S GDV 45 NNE Y22 10 N JMS 30 SE TVF 30 ESE INL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE ECG 25 SSE AND 35 NNE MCN 25 SE MCN 10 NNW AYS 20 NE JAX ...CONT... 35 E PSX 35 SSW SHV 40 E LIT 25 SSW PAH SDF 10 SW PKB 25 E HGR NEL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS...UPPER MIDWEST...CNTRL PLAINS AND SRN PLAINS... ...NRN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST... A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO A FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...A SFC LOW WILL DEEPEN AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL DEVELOP EAST OF THE SFC LOW ACROSS NEB...ERN SD AND SRN MN. IN ADDITION...LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY AS THE WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...PROVIDING SUFFICIENT LIFT FOR WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE REGION. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS TO HOW MUCH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE REGION. SFC DEWPOINTS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE 40S F IN THE NRN PLAINS. THE 60 F ISODROSOTHERM IS LOCATED ACROSS E TX AND IT SEEMS UNLIKELY THAT THIS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REACH ERN NEB BY SUNDAY. IF SFC DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE 50S F...SFC HEATING AND THE STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WOULD STILL YIELD MODERATE INSTABILITY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINED WITH THE STRONG UPWARD ASCENT WILL LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT FOR STRONG UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR ERN NEB FOR 21Z SUNDAY SHOW SOME LOW-LEVEL VEERING AND STRONG SPEED SHEAR ACROSS THIS AREA SUGGESTING A THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS WILL EXIST. LARGE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY WITH SUPERCELLS CONSIDERING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE GREATER THAN 7.0 C/KM ACROSS SERN SD...ERN NEB AND WRN IA. A FEW TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE NORTHWEST OF THE AXIS OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET IF ENOUGH MOISTURE RETURNS TO REGION AND SFC WINDS BACK SOME AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW. STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN A WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY AS SUPERCELLS BECOME OUTFLOW DOMINANT DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. AN UPGRADE TO MODERATE RISK MAY BECOME NECESSARY IN LATER OUTLOOKS ESPECIALLY AS THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE RETURN BECOMES MORE CLEAR. MODEL CONSENSUS DEVELOPS THE MOST WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS SRN SD AND NEB WITH MORE ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING SWD ALONG A SFC TROUGH ACROSS WRN KS INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. THIS CONVECTION ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS WILL HAVE A NARROW WINDOW FOR SEVERE AND SHOULD WEAKEN SLOWLY AFTER DARK. BUT THE STORMS FARTHER NORTH SHOULD ORGANIZE INTO AN MCS AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS THE BAND OF ASCENT SPREADS EWD ACROSS SRN MN...WI AND IA. A WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THIS STORM COMPLEX. ..BROYLES.. 05/15/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun May 16 08:04:12 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 16 May 2004 03:04:12 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200405160804.i4G846o23074@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 160802 SWODY2 SPC AC 160800 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0300 AM CDT SUN MAY 16 2004 VALID 171200Z - 181200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NNE MTC 35 SSW CGX 15 W UIN EMP 40 NE GAG 30 SW LAA 20 S DEN 25 SW DGW 55 WNW CDR 25 N IML 25 ESE GRI 20 NW EAU 55 NNW ANJ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 N ISN 15 WSW OLF 35 NNW MLS 35 ENE 4BQ 30 WSW VTN 25 SW YKN 20 NNW OTG 50 ESE BRD 140 NE CMX ...CONT... 30 WSW MSS 45 E UCA 15 E PSF 15 S BOS ...CONT... 30 NE ORF 15 N RDU 20 N CAE AYS 45 S GNV 40 SSW AGR 20 S PBI ...CONT... 20 SE BPT 15 SSW ELD 20 WSW DYR 15 SSW SDF 20 S ZZV 20 SSW FKL 20 NE ERI 45 ESE MTC 40 SSE SBN 50 S UIN 50 NW BVO 25 NNW LTS 25 SSE BGS 45 ESE P07 ...CONT... 70 SE ELP 50 N HOB 35 E TCC 10 NNW RTN 40 ENE ASE 40 ESE RKS 35 NE DPG 50 NE WMC 25 WNW RNO 30 S RBL 45 ESE CEC 25 SSW ONP. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL HI PLNS E ACROSS PARTS OF KS AND MO INTO THE UPR GRT LKS... ...SYNOPSIS... LOW AMPLITUDE WSWLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE U.S. ON MONDAY...DOWNSTREAM FROM PERSISTENT BLOCK ALONG THE NRN BC CST. UPPER LOW NOW DEVELOPING OVER THE E PACIFIC S OF THE BLOCK SHOULD PROGRESS E INTO NRN CA/SW ORE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...RESULTING IN MODEST SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE CNTRL RCKYS/HI PLNS. FARTHER E...IMPULSE NOW OVER THE NRN GRT BASIN SHOULD REACH THE ERN DAKOTAS BY EARLY MONDAY...AND CONTINUE ENE TO THE UPR GRT LKS BY LATE IN THE DAY. CURRENT SATELLITE AND MODEL DATA BOTH SUGGEST THAT ADDITIONAL WEAKER DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE CNTRL/NRN PLNS IN WAKE OF GRT LKS SYSTEM...BUT THE TIMING OF THESE FEATURES IS UNCERTAIN ATTM. AT LWR LEVELS...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH GRT LKS SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE SE ACROSS THE UPR MS VLY/UPR GRT LKS...AND REACH SRN MI/NRN IL BY 12Z TUESDAY. TRAILING WRN PART OF SAME BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY SETTLE SLOWLY S ACROSS KS ON MONDAY...BEFORE BECOMING STATIONARY OVER THE SRN PART OF THE STATE AND ERN CO EARLY TUESDAY. ...MID/UPR MS VLY TO UPR GRT LKS... A FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS LEFT OVER FROM DAY ONE WILL PROBABLY BE PRESENT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AHEAD OF COLD FRONT OVER THE UPR MS VLY. THIS ACTIVITY MAY CONTAIN SMALL SCALE BOWS GIVEN 40+ KT DEEP WSWLY SHEAR AND SUSTAINED LARGE SCALE ASCENT. BUT MEAGER SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL. SURFACE HEATING AND CONTINUED LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD RESULT IN RENEWED STORM DEVELOPMENT LATER IN THE DAY FARTHER S ACROSS PARTS OF ERN IA AND CNTRL/SRN WI. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE VERY STEEP /AROUND 6.5 DEG C PER KM/. BUT GIVEN INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INFLOW /850 DEWPOINTS AOA 12C/ AND CONTINUING PRESENCE OF MODERATE TO STRONG DEEP WSWLY SHEAR...LOW LEVEL DESTABILIZATION SHOULD PROVE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ADDITIONAL FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS DEVELOPMENT. ATTENDANT EMBEDDED BOWS/ROTATING STORMS WILL POSE A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND AND PERHAPS A COUPLE BRIEF TORNADOES EWD ACROSS FAR NRN IL INTO PARTS OF NRN AND CNTRL MI. ...LWR MO VLY W INTO THE CNTRL HI PLNS... THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO LIKELY DEVELOP LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON/ EVENING IN AN EAST-TO-WEST FASHION FROM SRN IA/NRN MO WWD INTO CENTRAL KS...WHERE SURFACE HEATING AND FRONTAL UPLIFT SHOULD PROVE SUFFICIENT TO BREAK REGIONAL CAP. MORE WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS AND SOMEWHAT WEAKER ACTIVITY MAY ALSO FORM IN POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW NWD/WWD INTO ERN CO/WY. COMBINATION OF VERY STEEP /NEARLY DRY ADIABATIC/ MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE /MEAN DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S/ WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY IN KS/NRN MO AND SRN IA WHERE 100 MB MLCAPE MAY REACH 2000 J/KG. COUPLED WITH 35-40 KT DEEP WSWLY SHEAR...SETUP SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR A SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL/HIGH WIND AND PERHAPS A COUPLE TORNADOES. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY LINGER INTO THE NIGHT ALONG AND N OF FRONT AS WEAK IMPULSES ALOFT AND STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET MAINTAIN LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE CNTRL PLNS REGION. ..CORFIDI.. 05/16/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun May 16 17:37:46 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 16 May 2004 12:37:46 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200405161737.i4GHbZo03929@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 161735 SWODY2 SPC AC 161733 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1233 PM CDT SUN MAY 16 2004 VALID 171200Z - 181200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WNW CLE 40 N LAF 50 NW COU 30 NE ICT 30 W P28 45 S DDC 15 NW LBL 25 NNW LAA 20 E DEN 15 ENE LAR 35 SSE DGW 30 ESE DGW 25 WSW CDR 45 E AIA 10 E LBF 10 W GRI 30 WNW OMA 20 S LSE 50 NW MBL 20 ENE APN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE BPT 45 S ELD 55 W MEM 30 N HOP 20 SSE ZZV 30 W HLG 30 ESE CAK 20 NNE CAK 20 WSW CLE 40 ENE LAF 35 E SZL 15 SE PNC 20 WSW LTS 40 SE BGS 45 ESE P07 ...CONT... 75 SE ELP 20 WNW HOB 30 WSW AMA 30 NNE DHT 35 ENE TAD 55 SE VEL 50 NE EKO 65 NNW LOL 20 E RBL 25 W RBL 35 ESE EKA 15 E 4BK 25 SSW ONP ...CONT... 60 N ISN 10 ESE OLF 25 N MLS 20 ENE 81V 20 NNW MHN 30 NW BBW 40 ESE BUB 20 S SUX 25 S EAU 35 SE ANJ ...CONT... 30 WSW MSS 45 E UCA 15 E PSF 25 SSE BOS ...CONT... 30 NE ORF 15 N RDU 20 N CAE AYS 50 S GNV 25 S AGR 25 S PBI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL PLAINS...HIGH PLAINS...UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES STATES... ...CNTRL PLAINS AND HIGH PLAINS... A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SWD TONIGHT AND SHOULD REACH CO...KS AND IA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCUS FOR SEVERE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ON DAY 2. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO RETURN NWD THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS TONIGHT AS A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS. MID 60 SFC DEWPOINTS NEAR THE RED RIVER WILL MOVE NWD INTO KANSAS AND THIS COMBINED WITH SFC HEATING WILL RESULT IN LOW-END MODERATE INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON. THE ETA/ETAKF AND GFS GENERALLY AGREE...BRINGING A SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS MONDAY. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT COMBINED WITH THE INSTABILITY FOR STORM INITIATION ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE. ALTHOUGH SPEED SHEAR SHOULD BE WEAK ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS...FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR 21Z MONDAY SHOW STRONG VEERING WITH HEIGHT FROM THE SFC TO 500 MB. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A DISCRETE SUPERCELL THREAT ESPECIALLY IF MORE INSTABILITY DEVELOPS THAN IS FORECAST. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8.0 TO 8.5 C/KM WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A LARGE HAIL THREAT ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE MOST WIDESPREAD STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD OCCUR FROM SW IA TO CNTRL KS. OTHER MORE ISOLATED STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP NEAR PEAK HEATING ACROSS SW NEB...WRN KS AND ERN CO. A TRANSITION TO A LINEAR MODE SHOULD TAKE PLACE DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS. THE LINE WILL LIKELY MOVE SEWD IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO SRN KS AND NERN MO WITH THE SEVERE POTENTIAL GRADUALLY DECREASING OVERNIGHT. ...UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES... AN MCS SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS NW IA...SRN MN AND NRN WI DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON DAY 2. SFC DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER 60S F ACROSS IA AND SRN WI IN RESPONSE MOISTURE ADVECTION OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE LOW-LEVEL JET. THE MCS SHOULD CONTINUE TO FEED OFF THE HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR AND IT MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS MOVING INTO IA...NRN IL AND SRN WI. LATER AFFECTING LOWER MI...NRN IND BY THE EVENING. A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST WITH THIS SYSTEM. FARTHER WEST ACROSS SRN WI...FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON SUGGEST LAPSE RATES WILL NOT BE PARTICULAR STEEP. THIS MAY BE PROBLEMATIC FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY. HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BE STRONGER ACROSS SERN IA. THIS MAY RESULT IN A SUPERCELL THREAT ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR THAT WILL EXIST. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER CELLS WITH WIND DAMAGE ALSO POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WITH THE FASTER MOVING CELLS IN THE LINE. AN MCS SHOULD ORGANIZE ACROSS IA DURING THE EVENING...MOVING INTO NRN IL AND SRN WI OVERNIGHT. ..BROYLES.. 05/16/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon May 17 07:48:33 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 17 May 2004 02:48:33 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200405170748.i4H7mIo17914@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 170745 SWODY2 SPC AC 170743 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0243 AM CDT MON MAY 17 2004 VALID 181200Z - 191200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE HUL 15 ESE LCI 20 ESE BDR ...CONT... 25 SSW ACY 45 E LYH 15 SE SSU 45 ENE EKN 30 W MGW 15 SSW EVV 25 WNW HRO 45 ESE GAG 25 W EHA LAA 15 SE DEN 20 WSW DGW 20 ENE COD 60 ENE BIL 35 NW MBG 50 NNE BUB 50 ESE OMA 20 N PIA 20 S ARB 20 N BUF MSS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S PSX 60 E CLL 35 ESE SHV 40 SSW JBR 25 NNW FSM 20 E CSM 20 SE CAO 40 S LHX 45 ESE ASE 45 NNE CAG 35 SW RKS 35 NW MLF 20 E BAM 20 WSW LOL 45 ESE RBL 40 WSW MHS 45 SSE OTH 30 W PDX 20 WNW CLM ...CONT... 75 NE MOT 25 SSW GFK 20 E OTG 10 E JVL 25 NNW LAN 60 ESE OSC. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A BROAD AREA EXTENDING FROM THE CNTRL HI PLNS/CNTRL PLNS EAST INTO THE OH VLY/MID ATL STATES AND NORTHEAST... ...SYNOPSIS... SRN BRANCH OF PERSISTENT SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE LWR 48 ON TUESDAY AS BLOCK INTENSIFIES OVER THE NE PACIFIC. IN RESPONSE TO AMPLIFICATION OF PACIFIC RIDGE...EXPECT THAT UPPER LOW NOW OFF THE NRN CA CST WILL ELONGATE NE/SW ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW/NRN GRT BASIN. THIS...IN TURN...SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY HEIGHT RISES OVER THE CNTRL AND SRN PLNS. BEFORE HEIGHT RISES BEGIN IN EARNEST OVER THE PLNS...BOTH SATELLITE AND MODEL DATA INDICATE THAT AT LEAST ONE FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE /SYSTEM NOW CROSSING THE SIERRA/...AND PERHAPS ONE ADDITIONAL WEAKER IMPULSE...WILL INTERACT WITH STALLING FRONTAL ZONE OVER ERN CO/KS AND MO ON TUESDAY. FARTHER E...TEMPORARY PHASING OF SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES IN BOTH THE NRN AND SRN STREAMS IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN EXISTING LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER NEW ENG. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PROCESS SHOULD DROP SE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY 12Z WEDNESDAY...WHILE TRAILING WRN PART BEGINS TO SHIFT N AS A WARM FRONT OVER THE CNTRL PLNS. ...OH VLY TO INTERIOR NEW ENG AND THE MID ATL CST... A BAND OF MODERATE TO STRONG /40-50 KT/ WSWLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE LWR GRT LKS AND NEW ENG ON TUESDAY AS UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS N OF REGION. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE WEAK /AROUND 6.5 DEG C PER KM/. BUT COMBINATION OF UPLIFT ALONG COLD FRONT AND/OR CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW SEGMENTS FROM DAY ONE STORMS AND SURFACE HEATING SHOULD PROVE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM NRN AND CNTRL IL/IND/OH ENE INTO PA/NY AND INTERIOR NEW ENG. OTHER STORMS MAY FORM INVOF LEE TROUGH OVER PIEDMONT SECTIONS OF VA/MD AND SE PA. WITH AMPLE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IN PLACE /AVERAGE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S/... UNIDIRECTIONAL MEAN FLOW WILL FAVOR CLUSTERS/SHORT LINES OF STORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN WITH NIGHTFALL. ...MO AND KS W/NW INTO THE CNTRL HI PLNS... A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WARM ADVECTION INVOF STALLING FRONTAL ZONE NOW OVER SRN NEB/NW KS WILL RESULT IN SEVERAL EPISODES OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS DURING THE PERIOD OVER PARTS OF KS AND MO. OTHER SEVERE STORMS MAY FORM IN LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS ERN CO/ERN WY AND PERHAPS SE MT. QUALITY OF LOWER TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE INFLOW /DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND 850 MB DEWPOINTS AOA 14C/...DRY ADIABATIC MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 40 KT DEEP WLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH SRN STREAM JET SUGGEST GOOD LIKELIHOOD FOR SUPERCELLS/SUPERCELL CLUSTERS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL/HIGH WIND AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES IN KS/MO. DETAILS REGARDING TIMING/LOCATION OF STRONGEST ACTIVITY WILL BE MODULATED BY PASSING IMPULSES IN THE UPPER JET...AND BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW FROM EXPECTED OVERNIGHT STORMS. GIVEN NEARLY STATIONARY POSITION OF LOW LEVEL JET AND EXPECTED THERMODYNAMIC SETUP...THE GREATEST RISK FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE /ESPECIALLY LARGE HAIL/ WOULD APPEAR TO BE OVER CNTRL AND ERN KS. IF HEIGHT RISES AND ASSOCIATED CAP STRENGTHENING PROVE TO BE SOMEWHAT LESS THAN IS NOW EXPECTED...THIS THREAT COULD EXTEND AS FAR W AS ERN CO. STRENGTHENING WARM ADVECTION DOWNSTREAM FROM AMPLIFYING TROUGH IN THE WEST COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF STORMS NWD AND EWD INTO NEB AND PERHAPS THE DAKS TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. ..NRN GRT BASIN... ..CORFIDI.. 05/17/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon May 17 07:56:39 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 17 May 2004 02:56:39 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200405170756.i4H7uPo21011@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 170754 SWODY2 SPC AC 170752 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0252 AM CDT MON MAY 17 2004 VALID 181200Z - 191200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE HUL 15 ESE LCI 20 ESE BDR ...CONT... 25 SSW ACY 45 E LYH 15 SE SSU 45 ENE EKN 30 W MGW 15 SSW EVV 25 WNW HRO 45 ESE GAG 25 W EHA LAA 15 SE DEN 20 WSW DGW 20 ENE COD 60 ENE BIL 35 NW MBG 50 NNE BUB 50 ESE OMA 20 N PIA 20 S ARB 20 N BUF MSS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S PSX 60 E CLL 35 ESE SHV 40 SSW JBR 25 NNW FSM 20 E CSM 20 SE CAO 40 S LHX 45 ESE ASE 45 NNE CAG 35 SW RKS 35 NW MLF 20 E BAM 20 WSW LOL 45 ESE RBL 40 WSW MHS 45 SSE OTH 30 W PDX 20 WNW CLM ...CONT... 75 NE MOT 25 SSW GFK 20 E OTG 10 E JVL 25 NNW LAN 60 ESE OSC. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A BROAD AREA EXTENDING FROM THE CNTRL HI PLNS/CNTRL PLNS EAST INTO THE OH VLY/MID ATL STATES AND NORTHEAST... ...SYNOPSIS... SRN BRANCH OF PERSISTENT SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE LWR 48 ON TUESDAY AS BLOCK INTENSIFIES OVER THE NE PACIFIC. IN RESPONSE TO AMPLIFICATION OF PACIFIC RIDGE...EXPECT THAT UPPER LOW NOW OFF THE NRN CA CST WILL ELONGATE NE/SW ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW/NRN GRT BASIN. THIS...IN TURN...SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY HEIGHT RISES OVER THE CNTRL AND SRN PLNS. BEFORE HEIGHT RISES BEGIN IN EARNEST OVER THE PLNS...BOTH SATELLITE AND MODEL DATA INDICATE THAT AT LEAST ONE FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE /SYSTEM NOW CROSSING THE SIERRA/...AND PERHAPS ONE ADDITIONAL WEAKER IMPULSE...WILL INTERACT WITH STALLING FRONTAL ZONE OVER ERN CO/KS AND MO ON TUESDAY. FARTHER E...TEMPORARY PHASING OF SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES IN BOTH THE NRN AND SRN STREAMS IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN EXISTING LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER NEW ENG. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PROCESS SHOULD DROP SE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY 12Z WEDNESDAY...WHILE TRAILING WRN PART BEGINS TO SHIFT N AS A WARM FRONT OVER THE CNTRL PLNS. ...OH VLY TO INTERIOR NEW ENG AND THE MID ATL CST... A BAND OF MODERATE TO STRONG /40-50 KT/ WSWLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE LWR GRT LKS AND NEW ENG ON TUESDAY AS UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS N OF REGION. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE WEAK /AROUND 6.5 DEG C PER KM/. BUT COMBINATION OF UPLIFT ALONG COLD FRONT AND/OR CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW SEGMENTS FROM DAY ONE STORMS AND SURFACE HEATING SHOULD PROVE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM NRN AND CNTRL IL/IND/OH ENE INTO PA/NY AND INTERIOR NEW ENG. OTHER STORMS MAY FORM INVOF LEE TROUGH OVER PIEDMONT SECTIONS OF VA/MD AND SE PA. WITH AMPLE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IN PLACE /AVERAGE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S/... UNIDIRECTIONAL MEAN FLOW WILL FAVOR CLUSTERS/SHORT LINES OF STORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN WITH NIGHTFALL. ...MO AND KS W/NW INTO THE CNTRL HI PLNS... A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WARM ADVECTION INVOF STALLING FRONTAL ZONE NOW OVER SRN NEB/NW KS WILL RESULT IN SEVERAL EPISODES OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS DURING THE PERIOD OVER PARTS OF KS AND MO. OTHER SEVERE STORMS MAY FORM IN LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS ERN CO/ERN WY AND PERHAPS SE MT. QUALITY OF LOWER TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE INFLOW /DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND 850 MB DEWPOINTS AOA 14C/...DRY ADIABATIC MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 40 KT DEEP WLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH SRN STREAM JET SUGGEST GOOD LIKELIHOOD FOR SUPERCELLS/SUPERCELL CLUSTERS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL/HIGH WIND AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES IN KS/MO. DETAILS REGARDING TIMING/LOCATION OF STRONGEST ACTIVITY WILL BE MODULATED BY PASSING IMPULSES IN THE UPPER JET...AND BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW FROM EXPECTED OVERNIGHT STORMS. GIVEN NEARLY STATIONARY POSITION OF LOW LEVEL JET AND EXPECTED THERMODYNAMIC SETUP...THE GREATEST RISK FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE /ESPECIALLY LARGE HAIL/ WOULD APPEAR TO BE OVER CNTRL AND ERN KS. IF HEIGHT RISES AND ASSOCIATED CAP STRENGTHENING PROVE TO BE SOMEWHAT LESS THAN IS NOW EXPECTED...THIS THREAT COULD EXTEND AS FAR W AS ERN CO. STRENGTHENING WARM ADVECTION DOWNSTREAM FROM AMPLIFYING TROUGH IN THE WEST COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF STORMS NWD AND EWD INTO NEB AND PERHAPS THE DAKS TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. ..CORFIDI.. 05/17/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon May 17 08:09:02 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 17 May 2004 03:09:02 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200405170808.i4H88lo26439@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 170805 SWODY2 SPC AC 170803 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0303 AM CDT MON MAY 17 2004 VALID 181200Z - 191200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE HUL 15 ESE LCI 20 ESE BDR ...CONT... 25 SSW ACY 45 E LYH 15 SE SSU 45 ENE EKN 30 W MGW 15 SSW EVV 25 WNW HRO 45 ESE GAG 25 W EHA LAA 15 SE DEN 20 WSW DGW 20 ENE COD 60 ENE BIL 35 NW MBG 50 NNE BUB 50 ESE OMA 20 N PIA 20 S ARB 20 N BUF MSS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 NE MOT 25 SSW GFK 20 E OTG 10 E JVL 25 NNW LAN 60 ESE OSC ...CONT... 35 S PSX 60 E CLL 35 ESE SHV 40 SSW JBR 25 NNW FSM 20 E CSM 20 SE CAO 40 S LHX 45 ESE ASE 45 NNE CAG 35 SW RKS 35 NW MLF 20 E BAM 20 WSW LOL 45 ESE RBL 40 WSW MHS 45 SSE OTH 30 W PDX 20 WNW CLM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A BROAD AREA EXTENDING FROM THE CNTRL HI PLNS/CNTRL PLNS EAST INTO THE OH VLY/MID ATL STATES AND NORTHEAST... ADDED DISCUSSION ON NRN GRT BASIN ...SYNOPSIS... SRN BRANCH OF PERSISTENT SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE LWR 48 ON TUESDAY AS BLOCK INTENSIFIES OVER THE NE PACIFIC. IN RESPONSE TO AMPLIFICATION OF PACIFIC RIDGE...EXPECT THAT UPPER LOW NOW OFF THE NRN CA CST WILL ELONGATE NE/SW ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW/NRN GRT BASIN. THIS...IN TURN...SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY HEIGHT RISES OVER THE CNTRL AND SRN PLNS. BEFORE HEIGHT RISES BEGIN IN EARNEST OVER THE PLNS...BOTH SATELLITE AND MODEL DATA INDICATE THAT AT LEAST ONE FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE /SYSTEM NOW CROSSING THE SIERRA/...AND PERHAPS ONE ADDITIONAL WEAKER IMPULSE...WILL INTERACT WITH STALLING FRONTAL ZONE OVER ERN CO/KS AND MO ON TUESDAY. FARTHER E...TEMPORARY PHASING OF SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES IN BOTH THE NRN AND SRN STREAMS IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN EXISTING LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER NEW ENG. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PROCESS SHOULD DROP SE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY 12Z WEDNESDAY...WHILE TRAILING WRN PART BEGINS TO SHIFT N AS A WARM FRONT OVER THE CNTRL PLNS. ...OH VLY TO INTERIOR NEW ENG AND THE MID ATL CST... A BAND OF MODERATE TO STRONG /40-50 KT/ WSWLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE LWR GRT LKS AND NEW ENG ON TUESDAY AS UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS N OF REGION. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE WEAK /AROUND 6.5 DEG C PER KM/. BUT COMBINATION OF UPLIFT ALONG COLD FRONT AND/OR CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW SEGMENTS FROM DAY ONE STORMS AND SURFACE HEATING SHOULD PROVE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM NRN AND CNTRL IL/IND/OH ENE INTO PA/NY AND INTERIOR NEW ENG. OTHER STORMS MAY FORM INVOF LEE TROUGH OVER PIEDMONT SECTIONS OF VA/MD AND SE PA. WITH AMPLE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IN PLACE /AVERAGE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S/... UNIDIRECTIONAL MEAN FLOW WILL FAVOR CLUSTERS/SHORT LINES OF STORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN WITH NIGHTFALL. ...MO AND KS W/NW INTO THE CNTRL HI PLNS... A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WARM ADVECTION INVOF STALLING FRONTAL ZONE NOW OVER SRN NEB/NW KS WILL RESULT IN SEVERAL EPISODES OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS DURING THE PERIOD OVER PARTS OF KS AND MO. OTHER SEVERE STORMS MAY FORM IN LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS ERN CO/ERN WY AND PERHAPS SE MT. QUALITY OF LOWER TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE INFLOW /DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND 850 MB DEWPOINTS AOA 14C/...DRY ADIABATIC MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 40 KT DEEP WLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH SRN STREAM JET SUGGEST GOOD LIKELIHOOD FOR SUPERCELLS/SUPERCELL CLUSTERS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL/HIGH WIND AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES IN KS/MO. DETAILS REGARDING TIMING/LOCATION OF STRONGEST ACTIVITY WILL BE MODULATED BY PASSING IMPULSES IN THE UPPER JET...AND BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW FROM EXPECTED OVERNIGHT STORMS. GIVEN NEARLY STATIONARY POSITION OF LOW LEVEL JET AND EXPECTED THERMODYNAMIC SETUP...THE GREATEST RISK FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE /ESPECIALLY LARGE HAIL/ WOULD APPEAR TO BE OVER CNTRL AND ERN KS. IF HEIGHT RISES AND ASSOCIATED CAP STRENGTHENING PROVE TO BE SOMEWHAT LESS THAN IS NOW EXPECTED...THIS THREAT COULD EXTEND AS FAR W AS ERN CO. STRENGTHENING WARM ADVECTION DOWNSTREAM FROM AMPLIFYING TROUGH IN THE WEST COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF STORMS NWD AND EWD INTO NEB AND PERHAPS THE DAKS TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. ...NRN GRT BASIN... SCATTERED DIURNALLY ENHANCED STORMS...INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS ...WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY NERN QUADRANT OF ELONGATING UPPER LOW OVER THE NRN GRT BASIN. WHILE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE SPARSE...SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 30S TO PERHAPS THE LWR 40S WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SUSTAINED STORMS GIVEN STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT. THE THREAT FOR HAIL/HIGH WIND AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO WOULD APPEAR TO BE GREATEST OVER THE UPR SNAKE RVR VLY INTO WRN WY AND PERHAPS NRN UT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ..CORFIDI.. 05/17/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon May 17 17:45:08 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 17 May 2004 12:45:08 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200405171744.i4HHiwo14414@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 171742 SWODY2 SPC AC 171740 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1240 PM CDT MON MAY 17 2004 VALID 181200Z - 191200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM HUL 20 NNE PSM 10 N BDR DOV HGR 20 W MGW EVV HRO 10 SE END GAG EHA 10 SSE LAA DEN CPR 20 ENE COD 10 NW BIL GDV 20 NW MBG OFK 15 SE OMA 50 NNE SZL UIN 25 N PIA 20 S ARB 20 SE DTW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NNE DVL FAR 20 SSW BKX FSD DSM 10 SE JVL MKG 60 ESE OSC ...CONT... 35 NNW ORF 10 NE RDU CAE AGS AYS GNV 55 W ORL 10 SSE SRQ ...CONT... 35 S PSX 60 E CLL 35 ESE SHV 40 SSW JBR MKO CSM 10 SE DHT PUB 45 ESE ASE MTJ U17 10 SE CDC 55 NW MLF 10 SE ENV 20 SE OWY SVE 10 S RBL MFR 10 SE RDM SEA 35 W BLI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THE NRN/CNTRL U.S.... ...OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES INTO NORTHEAST STATES... SERIES OF SHORT WAVES ARE EVIDENT IN LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY... PROGRESSING THROUGH BROAD UPPER TROUGH WHICH PERSISTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CANADIAN PROVINCES. THIS INCLUDES POSITIVELY TILTED SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN...WHICH ALREADY APPEARS TO BE TURNING EASTWARD TOWARD ONTARIO/QUEBEC AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. MODELS SUGGEST THAT AS THIS MOTION CONTINUES... SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY MERGE WITH WEAKER SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMANATING FROM BROADER SCALE NORTHWESTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH. BY EARLY TUESDAY ...A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE AND INTENSIFYING MID/UPPER JET STREAK IS PROGGED OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. AS UPPER TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES EASTWARD INTO/THROUGH THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY DURING THE COURSE OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...FRONTAL ZONE WILL ADVANCE SOUTHWARD/SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND NORTH ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS. DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...NEAR/SHORTLY AFTER PEAK HEATING...MODELS SUGGEST FRONT WILL PROGRESS SOUTHEAST OF LAKES ONTARIO/ERIE...PROVIDING FORCING/FOCUS FOR INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THOUGH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES DO NOT APPEAR LIKELY TO BECOME PARTICULARLY STEEP...FAIRLY STRONG SURFACE HEATING SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS MUCH OF OHIO/PENNSYLVANIA/AND NEW YORK STATE. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WITH SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE FOR MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG... SUPPORTIVE OF VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS WITH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL. THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...WITH THIS RISK ENHANCED BY 40 KT MEAN FLOW REGIME ON SOUTHERN FRINGE OF STRONGER WESTERLIES. SEVERAL LINES OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS APPEAR LIKELY TO EVOLVE THROUGH THE LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...PERHAPS MERGING INTO ONE EXTENSIVE SQUALL LINE ORIENTED IN EAST-WEST BAND ALONG FRONTAL ZONE..FROM NEW ENGLAND AND THE HUDSON VALLEY THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH IN INTENSITY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST REGION/NORTH CENTRAL APPALACHIANS/AND AREAS NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. ...CENTRAL PLAINS INTO NORTHERN ROCKIES.. STRONG WESTERLY MID/UPPER JET STREAK IS CURRENTLY NOSING INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC COAST. MODELS SUGGEST THIS FEATURE...AND ASSOCIATED EVOLVING CLOSED LOW...WILL GRADUALLY PROGRESS ACROSS THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL ROCKIES LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IN RESPONSE...STRENGTHENING SOUTHEASTERLY MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION...AND INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES FOR SUPERCELLS BY PEAK HEATING...FROM THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES INTO SOUTHEAST MONTANA. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONSOLIDATE IN STRONG WARM ADVECTION REGIME ALONG STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA AND THE WESTERN DAKOTAS TUESDAY EVENING. RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY PERSIST INTO THESE AREAS...BUT AS LOW-LEVEL JET VEERS OVERNIGHT...LARGE HAIL WILL BECOME PRIMARY THREAT AS ACTIVITY BECOMES INCREASINGLY BASED ABOVE SURFACE BASED INVERSION LAYER ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. ...SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS INTO OZARKS... CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH REGARD TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS PROGGED TO EXPAND NORTHWARD OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WHICH WILL LIKELY CAP VERY MOIST AND POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. HOWEVER...LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUPPORTS MODEL PROGS WHICH SUGGEST WEAK SHORT WAVE TOPPING THIS RIDGE EARLY TUESDAY...ACROSS THE OZARKS. CLUSTER OF STORMS COULD DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE...ON NOSE OF SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET...WHICH MAY PERSIST AS STRONGER MID-LEVEL FORCING SHIFTS TOWARD THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. ..KERR.. 05/17/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue May 18 07:59:57 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 18 May 2004 02:59:57 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200405180759.i4I7xdo14091@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 180755 SWODY2 SPC AC 180753 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0253 AM CDT TUE MAY 18 2004 VALID 191200Z - 201200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW GRI 25 NE HON 30 NE ATY 15 WNW RST 15 N LNR 25 NNE BRL 15 N BIE 35 NNW GRI. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 SE OSC 35 WSW TOL 50 ESE LUK OWB 20 NE COU 10 W MHK 30 NE IML 10 NE PIR 25 SSE P24 40 W DVL 10 NNE DLH 100 NNW ANJ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S ELP 45 WNW ROW 30 E CVS 25 SSW LBB 20 SW MAF 30 ESE P07. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NNW ROC 45 W ELM 30 S IPT ACY ...CONT... 30 SSW BPT 15 S POE 15 NNE TUP 50 SSW CKV PAH 25 SE VIH 30 NNE CNU 35 W HUT 40 E GLD 35 NE DEN 15 ESE U28 30 WNW U24 60 NE EKO 15 SW WMC 10 SE SAC 45 ESE EKA 35 NNW MFR 60 NE RDM 30 WSW YKM 50 ENE BLI ...CONT... 35 NNE CTB 25 ENE HLN 50 SE LVM 55 N DGW 25 SW RAP 30 ESE REJ 70 NNE OLF. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF NEB/SE SD/IA AND SRN MN... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LWR MO VLY E INTO THE MID/UPR MS VLYS AND UPR GRT LKS... ...SYNOPSIS... SPLIT FLOW PATTERN DOWNSTREAM FROM PERSISTENT NE PACIFIC BLOCK WILL PREVAIL OVER THE LWR 48 ON WEDNESDAY AS UPR RIDGE BUILDS N ACROSS THE SRN PLN/LWR MS VLY. NRN PART OF UPPER LOW NOW OVER THE PACIFIC NW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE E FROM MT TO THE UPR GRT LKS DURING THE PERIOD AS NRN STREAM SPEED MAX SWEEPS E/SE ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN /MANITOBA. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN WSWLY MID LEVEL FLOW OVER THE NRN PLNS/UPR MS VLY DURING THE PERIOD...WITH SPEEDS IN EXCESS OF 75 KT LIKELY OVER MN/WI BY 12Z THURSDAY. AT LOWER LEVELS...APPROACH OF MT DISTURBANCE WILL INDUCE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE WRN DAKOTAS...ALONG WRN END OF SURFACE FRONT NOW OVER THE CNTRL PLNS/LWR MO VLY. THE LOW SHOULD DEEPEN AND ACCELERATE E/NE INTO WRN ONTARIO BY THURSDAY MORNING AS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT MOVES/REDEVELOPS RAPIDLY NE INTO LWR MI/OH. ...LWR MO VLY TO MID/UPR MS VLY AND UPR GRT LKS... WEDNESDAY WILL BE AN ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER DAY OVER PARTS OF THE LWR MO AND MID/UPR MS VLY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL/HIGH WIND AND TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO HEAVY RAIN. CLUSTERS OF WARM ADVECTION THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE PRESENT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ALONG/AHEAD OF WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE WRN DAKS SE INTO NEB/MO. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD PRODUCE HAIL AND PERHAPS DAMAGING WIND...GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUD LAYER SHEAR/ INSTABILITY. A GREATER THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL LIKELY DEVELOP LATER IN THE DAY AS CONTINUED EWD MOTION OF MT UPR IMPULSE ENHANCES LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACROSS REGION. COUPLED WITH SURFACE HEATING... FRONTAL UPLIFT...CONTINUED RICH LOWER TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE INFLOW /850 MB DEWPOINTS AOA 16C/ AND INCREASING DEEP SHEAR /TO AROUND 50 KT BY 00Z THURSDAY/...SETUP WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS/SUPERCELL CLUSTERS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL/HIGH WIND AND TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY OVER ERN NEB/SE SD/WRN IA AND SW MN. STRONG REGIONAL FORCING AND DEGREE OF INSTABILITY /MLCAPE TO 3000 J/KG/ SUGGEST FAIRLY WIDESPREAD STORM COVERAGE IN MDT RISK AREA. COUPLED WITH INCREASING DEEP SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL DESTABILIZATION EXPECTED BY LATE IN THE DAY E/NE INTO ERN IA NRN IL AND WI... EXPECT THAT ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY EVOLVE INTO ONE OR MORE LARGE MCSS. THESE SYSTEMS WILL LIKELY CONTAIN A FEW EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS/BOWS...POSSIBLY EXTENDING A SEVERE THREAT INTO PARTS OF MI BY LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY. GIVEN MEAN WLY MID TROPOSPHERIC WLY FLOW...DISTRIBUTION OF SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY AND EXPECTED DIURNAL/QG STRENGTHENING OF THE LOW LEVEL JET...THERE MAY ALSO BE A TENDENCY FOR STORM CLUSTERS TO BACK-BUILD W ACROSS IA AND PERHAPS INTO ERN NEB WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY...ALONG NRN FRINGE OF CAP ASSOCIATED WITH SRN PLNS RIDGE. THESE STORMS MAY YIELD HAIL/HIGH WIND AND EXCESSIVE RAIN...DESPITE EWD PASSAGE OF MAIN UPPER DISTURBANCE. FARTHER E/SE AND EARLIER IN THE DAY...SURFACE HEATING AND FRONTAL CONVERGENCE MAY SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS/STORM CLUSTERS IN WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT ALONG WARM FRONT FROM MO EWD INTO IL/IND/OH...WHERE DEEP WNWLY SHEAR WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 30 KT. ..CORFIDI.. 05/18/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue May 18 17:33:39 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 18 May 2004 12:33:39 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200405181733.i4IHXJo30714@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 181730 SWODY2 SPC AC 181728 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1228 PM CDT TUE MAY 18 2004 VALID 191200Z - 201200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW GRI 25 NE HON 30 NE ATY 15 WNW RST 15 N LNR 25 NNE BRL 15 N BIE 35 NNW GRI. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 SE OSC 35 WSW TOL 50 ESE LUK OWB 20 NE COU 10 W MHK 30 NE IML 35 N PHP 30 W MOT 60 NNE DVL 30 NE ELO 40 N ANJ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S ELP 45 WNW ROW 30 E CVS 25 SSW LBB 20 SW MAF 30 ESE P07. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W ART 10 ESE BFD 40 SE PSB ACY ...CONT... 30 SSW BPT 15 S POE 15 NNE TUP 50 SSW CKV 35 NNW DYR 35 W POF 40 N JLN 20 ESE SLN 35 SE GLD 35 NE DEN 15 ESE U28 30 WNW U24 60 NE EKO 15 SW WMC 10 SE SAC 45 ESE EKA 35 NNW MFR 60 NE RDM 30 WSW YKM 50 ENE BLI ...CONT... 35 NNE CTB 25 ENE HLN 50 SE LVM 55 N DGW 25 SSE 81V 15 NW REJ 70 NNE OLF. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SERN SD...ERN NEB EWD INTO SWRN MN...EXTREME SWRN WI AND MOST OF IA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS STATES EWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VLY... ...SYNOPSIS... SPLIT FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE INTO MIDWEEK...WITH STRONGEST WLYS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF THE NATION. MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING NEWD THROUGH THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TODAY WILL TRACK EWD TO THE NRN GTLKS REGION BY EARLY THURSDAY... ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF NRN STREAM SYSTEM OVER NRN SASK. LOWER AMPLITUDE WAVE TRAIN WILL CARRY WEAKER JETLETS FROM THE ERN PAC BASIN THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND ONTO THE PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD ON THE NRN EDGE OF BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. ONE SUCH DISTURBANCE... CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER KS...WILL CONTINUE EWD ALONG SRN PART OF THE WLYS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER IMPULSE WILL APPROACH THE LOWER MO VLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. AT THE SURFACE...BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SHIFT SWD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND/ NRN MID ATLANTIC THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TAIL END OF THE FRONT WILL REDEVELOP NWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A LEE-LOW DEEPENS ACROSS THE DAKS AND MOVES EWD. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR AN ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER DAY...PARTICULARLY IN THE PLAINS/UPPER MS VLY. ...LWR MO/UPPER MS VLYS EWD TO THE GTLKS REGION/UPPER MIDWEST... ELEVATED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING ACROSS THE DAKS SWD INTO NEB AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...AIDED BY SLY LLJ/WARM ADVECTION. THESE TSTMS SHOULD MOVE/DEVELOP EWD WITH TIME TOWARD THE NRN GTLKS REGION AS THE STRONGEST THETA-E ADVECTION SHIFTS EWD. HAIL/ DAMAGING WINDS COULD OCCUR WITH THIS ACTIVITY GIVEN SUFFICIENT MUCAPE/CAPE-BEARING SHEAR. MAIN SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE DELAYED UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. AS WARM FRONT REDEVELOPS NWD...AIR MASS SHOULD RECOVER QUICKLY NWD. MOIST SLY FLOW WILL ADVECT UPPER 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS NWD BENEATH STEEP MID-TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES AND CONTRIBUTE TO A VERY UNSTABLE SITUATION...WITH MLCAPES OF 3000-3500 J/KG IN THE LWR MO VLY. AIR MASS SHOULD REMAIN CAPPED MOST OF THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...LARGE SCALE ASCENT SHOULD INCREASE AS 1/ EJECTING MIDLEVEL DISTURBANCE MIGRATES ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND 2/ LOW AMPLITUDE IMPULSE MOVES ALONG THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE INTO THE LOWER MO VLY. THUS...OVERALL SET-UP SHOULD PROVE FAVORABLE FOR TSTMS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE MO RVR LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS STRONG HEATING...LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE AND UPPER SUPPORT AID IN WEAKENING CINH. MIDLEVEL WLY FLOW OF 60-70 KTS ATOP SLY LOW LEVEL CURRENT OF 25-30 KTS WILL CREATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES...VERY LARGE HAIL COULD RESULT ALONG WITH A FEW TORNADOES DURING THE FIRST FEW HOURS AFTER INITIATION IN ERN SD...NERN NEB...SWRN MN AND WRN IA /WRN PART OF MDT RISK AREA/. ACTIVITY WILL MOST LIKELY CONGEAL INTO A LARGE MCS OVERNIGHT... DEVELOPING/MOVING EWD INTO WI...EXTREME NRN PARTS OF BOTH IND/IL AND POSSIBLY MI VERY LATE. FAVORABLE WLY FLOW WOULD LIKELY ENCOURAGE BOWS/LEWPS AND EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WITH HIGH WINDS/HAIL. DAMAGING WIND THREAT MAY BE PARTICULARLY HIGH ACROSS THE ERN PARTS OF THE MDT RISK AS SUPERCELLS WILL LIKELY TRANSITION INTO BOWS. LATER...KINEMATIC SET-UP ALSO APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR BACKBUILDING/TRAINING OF POSSIBLE SEVERE TSTMS INTO IA/ERN NEB OVERNIGHT. ...MIDWEST TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION... SHORTWAVE TROUGH AIDING CURRENT TSTM COMPLEX OVER MO WILL TRACK EWD ALONG BAROCLINIC ZONE INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION ON WEDNESDAY. DESPITE WEAK MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...FAVORABLE MOIST INFLOW COINCIDENT WITH ENHANCED MIDLEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE IMPULSE WILL LIKELY LEAD TO ORGANIZED TSTM CLUSTERS THE LENGTH OF THE FRONT. THESE TSTMS MAY TEND TO BOW IN THE MEAN WLY FLOW WITH DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL. PARTS OF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC MIGHT BE UPGRADED TO A CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS...ONCE TIMING OF UPSTREAM WAVE IS MORE CERTAIN. OTHERWISE...TSTMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG WARM FRONT ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL IL/IND DURING THE AFTERNOON WHERE AIR MASS BECOMES UNSTABLE...LIS OF MINUS 4. THIS IS A CONDITIONAL SLGT RISK AREA...WITH MOST OF THE SEVERE THREAT LIKELY REMAINING NW OF THE REGION. ..RACY.. 05/18/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed May 19 07:33:36 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 19 May 2004 02:33:36 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200405190733.i4J7XEo21261@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 190731 SWODY2 SPC AC 190729 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0229 AM CDT WED MAY 19 2004 VALID 201200Z - 211200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N PBG 25 W ELM 40 W MRB 25 NW SSU 20 SW SDF 45 SSE OJC 45 SSW GLD 55 NW AKO 40 NE AIA 10 WSW FSD 35 E ALO 25 NE JVL 85 E ANJ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNW MOT 50 SW JMS 15 SE AXN 20 SW RHI 35 ENE ESC 25 N ANJ ...CONT... 25 ENE NEL 20 E BWI 25 SW NHK 25 ESE ORF ...CONT... 30 E JAX 45 S CTY ...CONT... 25 SE 7R4 25 SSW HEZ GWO 35 ENE JBR 45 NW UNO 15 WNW CNU 25 SW DDC 45 SSW DHT 20 SW CNM 65 S MRF ...CONT... 65 SSW DMN 25 N ABQ 10 ENE ASE 50 ESE VEL 15 E PUC 40 ESE DPG 15 NE ENV 55 SSE EKO 30 ESE BIH 20 NW MER 25 NE UKI 40 NE ACV 35 NW RDM 30 ENE BLI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SSE FMY PBI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LWR MO VLY AND MID MS VLY INTO THE LWR GRT LKS... ...SYNOPSIS... SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN EXPECTED TO REMAIN LARGELY UNCHANGED ON THURSDAY AS SPLIT FLOW PATTERN PERSISTS DOWNSTREAM FROM E PACIFIC BLOCK. SPEED MAX EXPECTED TO CROSS THE UPR MS VLY LATER TODAY/TONIGHT WILL SWEEP E FROM THE UPR GRT LKS INTO NEW ENG...IN TANDEM WITH BAND OF STRONG WLY FLOW IN NRN STREAM OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. THIS WILL FAVOR AN EWD EXTENSION OF EXISTING SRN PLNS RIDGE...AND A SLIGHT REBOUND OF HEIGHTS ACROSS THE MID MS VLY. AT LOWER LEVELS...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH UPR GRT LKS IMPULSE SHOULD EXTEND FROM NRN MI TO CNTRL IA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. NRN PART OF BOUNDARY SHOULD SWEEP E TO THE NEW ENG CST BY 12Z FRIDAY...WHILE TRAILING SWRN PORTION BECOMES STATIONARY OVER THE MID MS/LWR MO VLYS. WRN END OF SAME FRONT SHOULD REDEVELOP N ACROSS NEB LATE IN THE PERIOD AS FLOW ALOFT BACKS AHEAD OF AN IMPULSE LIFTING NE FROM GRT BASIN TROUGH. ...LWR GRT LKS/UPR OH VLY INTO WRN NY/PA... COLD FRONT CROSSING SRN ONTARIO AND THE LWR GRT LKS SHOULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR DIURNALLY ENHANCED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ON THURSDAY AS BAND OF 40-50 KT WNW MID LEVEL FLOW OVERSPREADS REGION. FORECAST WIND PROFILES AND BOUNDARY ORIENTATION SUGGEST THAT CONVERGENCE ALONG BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN WEAK...AND LAPSE RATES WILL ALSO BE MARGINAL FOR STRONG CONVECTION /ON THE ORDER OF 6.5 DEG C PER KM/. BUT COMBINATION OF SURFACE HEATING...DIFFLUENT UPR LEVEL FLOW AND MODEST LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED STORMS/STORM CLUSTERS. AMPLE /40-50 KT/ DEEP SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT FOR SUSTAINED STORMS AND POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS WITH BOWING SEGMENTS/HIGH WIND. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN WITH NIGHTFALL. ...LWR MO VLY INTO MID MS VLY... SOMEWHAT MORE SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL LIKELY EXIST ALONG PORTION OF COLD FRONT BECOMING STATIONARY OVER THE MID MS VLY REGION. COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING...PRESENCE OF FAIRLY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ON EDGE OF ELEVATED MIXED LAYER...AND 30-40 KT DEEP WLY SHEAR ORIENTED ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO BOUNDARY... SETUP SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR CLUSTERS OF STRONG STORMS... INCLUDING POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL/HIGH WIND AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO. THE STORMS IN MO/IL/SRN IA AND IND MAY WEAKEN THURSDAY EVENING. BUT ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY N OF DEVELOPING WARM FRONT FROM CNTRL AND ERN NEB INTO MUCH OF IA AND...EVENTUALLY...SRN SD/MN. AMPLE /40+ KT/ CLOUD LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY /CAPE TO 2000 J/KG/ WILL BE PRESENT TO SUPPORT ELEVATED SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS LOCALLY DAMAGING SURFACE WINDS. ..CORFIDI.. 05/19/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed May 19 17:27:58 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 19 May 2004 12:27:58 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200405191727.i4JHRZo11909@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 191725 SWODY2 SPC AC 191723 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1223 PM CDT WED MAY 19 2004 VALID 201200Z - 211200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N PBG 15 NNW BFD 15 NE MGW 25 NNW SSU 25 SW JKL 35 WSW SDF 15 E BIE EAR 25 SW AKO 30 ENE FCL 55 NE AIA 30 E 9V9 20 SW FRM 20 NNE DBQ 15 NW MKE 85 E ANJ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NNW MOT 25 ESE BIS 50 NNE ATY 25 SE STC 25 SSE CWA 35 ENE ESC 25 N ANJ ...CONT... 25 SE PSM 35 SW BGM 25 SSE HGR 25 ESE ORF ...CONT... 30 E JAX 45 S CTY ...CONT... 25 SE 7R4 25 SSW HEZ GWO 35 ENE JBR 30 NNE VIH 50 SSW HSI 15 SSW GCK 25 E AMA 15 SSE MAF 10 SSW P07 ...CONT... 50 SW MRF 50 NNW HOB 30 SW LAA 35 ESE DEN 40 E CAG 25 S U17 45 E SGU 20 WNW SLC 15 NE ENV 55 SSE EKO 30 ESE BIH 20 NW MER 25 NE UKI 40 NE ACV 35 NW RDM 30 ENE BLI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SSE FMY PBI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VLY... ...SYNOPSIS... LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED IN THE OVERALL UPPER FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE NATION ON THURSDAY. UPPER TROUGH SITUATED ACROSS THE WRN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING NWD THROUGH THE MS VLY AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES. THIS WILL KEEP THE STRONGEST WLYS ARCING FROM THE SRN ROCKIES ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE GTLKS AND NEW ENGLAND...FAVORABLE FOR TSTM CLUSTERS TO DEVELOP IN THE PLAINS AND MIGRATE EWD TOWARD NY AND THE UPPER OH VLY. ...CNTRL PLAINS TO THE LOWER GTLKS AND UPPER OH VLY... CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW ON THURSDAYS SEVERE POTENTIAL AS WEDNESDAYS CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION WILL PLAY A ROLE IN THE OVERALL SCENARIO FOR THURSDAY. LOOSELY ORGANIZED MCS MAY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL GTLKS. THESE TSTM CLUSTERS WILL BE EMBEDDED IN THE WLYS AND KINEMATIC SET-UP WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR TSTMS TO QUICKLY TRANSLATE EWD INTO THE LOWER GTLKS AND UPPER OH VLY DURING PEAK HEATING. IT IS CONCEIVABLE THAT GIVEN HEATING AND RAPID RECOVERY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THESE REGIONS THAT DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS COULD SUPPORT STRONG TSTMS ALONG LEADING EDGE OF THE MCS WITH ATTENDANT DAMAGING WIND THREAT. ERN EXTENT OF SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY BE SHARP GIVEN THAT OUTFLOW FROM SURFACE HIGH IN THE GULF OF ME WILL CARRY MORE STABLE AIR MASS INTO MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND/NY AND THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. MEANWHILE...ADDITIONAL TSTMS MAY FORM DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG TRAILING PORTION OF COLD FRONT/OUTFLOW EMANATING FROM THE GTLKS MCS FROM IA INTO THE UPPER OH VLY. GIVEN THAT THE UPPER RIDGE/MIDLEVEL THERMAL RIDGE NOSES NWD DURING THE AFTERNOON...THE CAP WILL BECOME AN ISSUE. IF REGIONAL CONVERGENCE AND STRONG HEATING CAN ERODE CINH ALONG THE FRONT/OUTFLOW...VERTICAL SHEAR/STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ONE OR TWO TORNADOES. DAMAGING WIND THREAT WOULD INCREASE DURING THE EVENING AS TSTM CLUSTERS WITH POSSIBLE BOWS/LEWPS EVOLVE IN WLY FLOW REGIME. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING AS THE LLJ REDIRECTS FARTHER WEST WITH TIME. FINALLY...AS THE UPPER FLOW BACKS DOWNSTREAM OF DEEPENING WRN U.S. TROUGH...A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL TRAVEL NEWD TOWARD THE CNTRL PLAINS OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY. INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND WARM ADVECTION REGIME ALONG NOSE OF THE LLJ WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR TSTMS TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT ACROSS PARTS OF NEB AND MUCH OF IA. THESE WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP INTO PARTS OF SRN SD/MN BY EARLY FRIDAY. 40 KTS OF CLOUD-BEARING SHEAR AND MUCAPE TO 2000 J/KG SHOULD SUPPORT ELEVATED SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS. THOUGH THERE COULD VERY WELL BE A SIGNIFICANT HAIL/WIND THREAT WITHIN THE SLGT RISK AREA...GIVEN LOWER THAN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL SCENARIO AT THIS STAGE IN THE FORECAST PROCESS... PLACING A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE PROBABILITY IN ANY GIVEN AREA IS DIFFICULT. ...SRN HIGH PLAINS... OVER HALF OF THE 09Z SREF MEMBERS SUGGEST THAT ISOLD TSTMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE ACROSS W TX...ERN NM AND SWRN KS. GIVEN A TSTM...VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE MARGINAL TO SUPPORT A SUSTAINED STORM...THOUGH THE SHEAR MAY BE STRONGER THAN RECENT DAYS GIVEN THAT STRONGER MIDLEVEL FLOW WILL BE CLOSER TO THE REGION. AS SUCH...LOCALLY SEVERE WIND OR HAIL COULD OCCUR. ...CNTRL ROCKIES AREA... NUMEROUS DISTURBANCES ROTATING NEWD FROM BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LIKELY SUPPORT TSTMS DEVELOPING DURING PEAK HEATING ACROSS THE CNTRL ROCKIES REGION. THOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE MINIMAL... SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR POSSIBLE STRONG TSTMS THAT MAY YIELD ISOLD HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. ..RACY.. 05/19/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu May 20 08:02:30 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 20 May 2004 03:02:30 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200405200802.i4K824H13397@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 200759 SWODY2 SPC AC 200758 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0258 AM CDT THU MAY 20 2004 VALID 211200Z - 221200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW HSE 40 NE CLT LEX 35 ESE RFD 20 NW DSM 30 S HSI 15 SE AIA 40 S 81V 65 N OLF ...CONT... 50 NNW MOT 30 ESE BIS 50 WSW AXN 45 ENE OSC 15 E BUF 45 ENE EKN 40 ESE ORF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE JAX 40 S GNV 40 SW AGR 55 WNW MIA 20 SSE MIA ...CONT... 30 ESE 7R4 30 SSW MLU 20 ENE LIT 50 ESE VIH 30 W UIN 20 SW OJC 15 E END 35 W MWL 25 SE DRT ...CONT... 60 SSW MRF 20 NNE HOB 30 SSW EHA 50 SE LIC 20 NNW SNY 40 NNE CPR 35 NNW RIW 20 WNW EVW 30 NE ELY 50 N DRA 45 SSW BIH 30 E SCK 10 SW UKI 35 NE ACV 45 N LMT 35 NE RDM 50 SE OLM 15 NNE BLI ...CONT... 40 N ART BOS. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM WRN SD/NEB E ACROSS THE MID MS VLY TO LWR GRT LKS... ...SYNOPSIS... LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE WRN U.S. WILL UNDERGO A FEW CHANGES THIS PERIOD AS UPSTREAM BLOCK HOLDS FIRM IN THE E PACIFIC. IN SHORT... EXPECT MAJOR PORTION OF THE TROUGH TO EJECT NEWD IN PIECEMEAL FASHION DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS...WHILE A NEW CLOSED LOW /ASSOCIATED WITH SPEED MAX NOW TOPPING RIDGE IN AK/...DEVELOPS IN ITS PLACE OVER SRN BC. AT THE SAME TIME...SRN PLNS RIDGE SHOULD EXPAND E INTO THE WRN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE SW TO WSW FLOW FROM THE CNTRL/NRN PLNS ACROSS THE MID/UPR MS VLY TO THE LWR GRT LKS. AT LWR LEVELS...COLD FRONT CROSSING THE GRT LKS REGION TODAY SHOULD BECOME STATIONARY FROM THE MID MS VLY TO MID ATL CST BY 12Z FRIDAY. WRN PART OF BOUNDARY SHOULD LIFT SLIGHTLY N ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE CNTRL PLNS DURING THE PERIOD...AHEAD OF LEAD IMPULSE EJECTING NE FROM WRN TROUGH. ...WRN SD/NEB THROUGH MID MS VLY TO LWR GRT LKS/MID ATL... WARM/STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE PLNS TO THE E CST WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR PERIODIC STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. TIMING OF THESE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS WILL REMAIN UNCERTAIN GIVEN /1/ LOW AMPLITUDE OF SW/WSWLY FLOW ALOFT AND /2/ CONTINUING EFFECT OF ELEVATED MIXED LAYER CAP FROM THE PLNS TO MID MS VLY. A FEW AREAS OF MAINLY ELEVATED STORMS MAY BE PRESENT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD OVER ERN SD/IA/SRN MN AND WI. STRONG /40+ KT/ SWLY LOW LEVEL JET IN THIS REGION WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE DEEP SHEAR AND STRONG CLOUD-LAYER INSTABILITY /CAPE TO 2000 J/KG/... POSING A THREAT FOR HAIL AND POSSIBLY HIGH WIND. SCATTERED SURFACE-BASED STORMS COULD FORM LATER IN THE DAY ALONG OUTFLOW FROM THIS ACTIVITY AND/OR ALONG MAIN SURFACE FRONT FROM SRN WI/CNTRL AND SRN MI SEWD INTO PARTS OF IND/OH/WRN PA/WRN NY... WHERE AMPLE /35-40 KT /DEEP WLY SHEAR WILL EXIST TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS/SUPERCELLS WITH HIGH WIND. SUSTAINED ROTATING CELLS WOULD ALSO POSE A THREAT FOR HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ...ESPECIALLY IN SRN MI/IND/OH WHERE MLCAPE COULD REACH 3000 J/KG AND SURFACE WINDS COULD REMAIN MORE SLY. A FEW STRONG DIURNAL CELLS/ CLUSTERS COULD ALSO DEVELOP INVOF FRONT FARTHER SE INTO WV/VA AND NRN NC. SURFACE-BASED ACTIVITY MAY ALSO DEVELOP WWD WITH TIME INTO MORE STRONGLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT ACROSS NRN IL AND IA...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON THIS SCENARIO GIVEN STRENGTH OF CAP AND ABSENCE OF A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE ALOFT. A SEPARATE AREA OF STORM INITIATION MAY EMERGE OVER THE WRN PARTS OF THE DAKS AND NEB FRIDAY AFTERNOON...INVOF LEE TROUGH/WARM FRONT. THESE FEATURES WILL LIFT NEWD THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF LEAD DISTURBANCE EJECTING NEWD IN SW FLOW ALOFT /THE IMPULSE NOW ENTERING NV/. GIVEN PROXIMITY TO MAIN UPPER JET /SPEEDS AOA 40 KT/...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INCREASINGLY MOIST SELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT...SETUP COULD SUPPORT A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL/HIGH WIND AND A FEW TORNADOES. POTENTIAL WOULD ALSO EXIST FOR UPSCALE DEVELOPMENT INTO A FORWARD PROPAGATING CLUSTER. THIS SYSTEM MAY REACH THE LWR MO VLY BY SATURDAY MORNING...AND MERGE WITH OTHER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH STRENGTHENING OF THE LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE MID/UPR MS VLY. ..CORFIDI.. 05/20/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu May 20 17:13:13 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 20 May 2004 12:13:13 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200405201712.i4KHCke14312@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 201710 SWODY2 SPC AC 201708 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1208 PM CDT THU MAY 20 2004 VALID 211200Z - 221200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW HSE 40 NE CLT LEX 35 ESE RFD 20 NW DSM 30 S HSI 15 E AIA 35 S 81V 30 SSE MLS 65 NNE OLF ...CONT... 50 NNW MOT 30 ESE BIS 50 WSW AXN 45 ENE OSC 15 E BUF 45 ENE EKN 40 ESE ORF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE JAX 40 S GNV 40 SW AGR 55 WNW MIA 20 SSE MIA ...CONT... 30 ESE 7R4 45 SW MLU 15 NW LIT 50 ESE VIH 20 NNE UIN 30 E CNK 30 E P28 45 SW SPS 15 NNW DRT ...CONT... 75 S MRF 35 ENE HOB 60 SSW LBL 45 SW GLD 20 NNW SNY 40 NNE CPR 35 NNW RIW 20 WNW EVW 30 NE ELY 50 N DRA 45 SSW BIH 30 E SCK 10 SW UKI 35 NE ACV 45 N LMT 35 NE RDM 50 SE OLM 15 NNE BLI ...CONT... 40 N ART BOS. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS WRN SD/NEB E ACROSS THE MID MS VLY TO LOWER GREAT LAKES... ...SYNOPSIS... PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WRN PARTS OF THE NATION WILL SHOW SIGNS OF WEAKENING AND EJECTING NEWD BY LATE FRIDAY AS NEXT IMPULSE DROPS DOWN ERN SIDE OF A RIDGE OVER AK. DOWNSTREAM RIDGE WILL BROADEN AND EDGE EWD ACROSS THE SERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY. COMBINATION OF EJECTING WRN CONUS TROUGH AND FLATTENING RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN MODEST SWLY BELT OF MIDLEVEL FLOW ARCING FROM THE SRN ROCKIES ACROSS THE PLAINS AND UPPER MS VLY TO NEW ENGLAND. AT THE SURFACE...WAVY FRONT WILL BE SITUATED FROM NEW ENGLAND ACROSS THE SRN GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. ERN PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY... WHILE WRN PORTION MOVES NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER MS VLY AHEAD OF EJECTING UPPER TROUGH. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR TSTM CLUSTERS THAT WILL TRAVERSE FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ...WRN SD/NEB THROUGH MID MS VLY TO LWR GRT LKS/MID ATL... TIMING AND LOCATION OF TSTM COMPLEXES WILL CONTINUE TO BE DIFFICULT. UNCERTAINTIES WILL ARISE OWING TO THE PRECISE TIMING OF LOW AMPLITUDE IMPULSES AND INFLUENCES OF THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER CAPPING ALONG THE FRONT. WHILE A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE EVENT MAY BE POSSIBLE ANYWHERE ALONG THE FRONT...IT IS TOO EARLY/ UNCERTAIN TO HONE IN ON A SPECIFIC SIGNIFICANT PROBABILITY THREAT. A FEW MCS/S MAY BE ONGOING TO START THE PERIOD: /1/ MID-UPPER OH VLY.../2/ UPPER MS VLY AND /3/ ALONG-N OF THE MO RVR IN THE DAKS. THE STRONGEST TSTM CLUSTERS WITH HAIL/GUSTY WINDS WILL PROBABLY BE LOCATED IN THE UPPER MS VLY AND THE NRN PLAINS ALONG THE NOSE OF 50-55 KT LLJ AXES. THESE TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE ELEVATED WITH AMPLE CLOUD LAYER SHEAR/INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT PERIODIC SEVERE THREATS CONTINUING FROM LATE IN THE DAY 1 PERIOD. SURFACE BASED TSTMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE OH VLY/MID-ATLANTIC FRIDAY AFTERNOON. STRONGEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE MASON-DIXON LINE. BUT...MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD HAVE RECOVERED TO 6.5-7.0 C/KM SUGGESTING A FEW STORMS MAY POSE A HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREAT. MEANWHILE...PORTION OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST /WRN OH-SRN LOWER MI-NRN IND/ INTO THE UPPER MS VLY /WI/ COULD BE A FOCUS FOR SURFACE BASED TSTMS. CINH WILL BE GREATER ALONG THIS PORTION OF THE FRONT...BUT IF DEVELOPMENT CAN OCCUR...VERTICAL SHEAR OF 45 KTS...MODEST DIRECTIONAL/SPEED SHEAR IN THE LOWER LEVELS...AND 8 C/KM MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND A TORNADO OR TWO. FARTHER WEST...SURFACE BASED TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS EVEN MORE UNCERTAIN ACROSS IA/MN/ERN NEB. H7 TEMPERATURES NEAR 10C AND WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT/OUTFLOW SUGGESTS THAT TSTMS MAY HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME INITIATING. TSTMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO INITIATE ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS /WRN SD-WRN NEB/ ALONG A LEE-TROUGH/WARM FRONT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT COMBINATION OF STRONG HEATING...MOIST LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR TSTM INITIATION BY MID AFTERNOON. SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY GIVEN VERTICAL SHEAR OF 45-50 KTS AND NEARLY DRY-ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES. DURING THE EVENING...ACTIVITY SHOULD CONGEAL INTO A MCS AND COULD FORWARD PROPAGATE RAPIDLY INTO THE MID MO VLY OVERNIGHT WITH DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL. IT IS CONCEIVABLE THAT THIS COMPLEX COULD JOIN WITH THE ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS ALONG THE LLJ ACROSS THE UPPER MS VLY BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. ...SRN HIGH PLAINS... ALL ETAKF MEMBERS OF THE 09Z SREF SUGGEST THAT ISOLD TSTMS COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE ACROSS SWRN KS/WRN OK AND W TX FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE RSM/ETA/OPNL ETA DO NOT CONVECT. STRONGEST CONVERGENCE APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE ACROSS THE KS/OK/NW TX PORTION OF THE DRYLINE. GIVEN STRONG HEATING THE CAP COULD BE BREACHED WHERE CONVERGENCE IS SUFFICIENT. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE ENOUGH FOR SUPERCELLS AND LARGE HAIL COULD OCCUR WITH THESE STORMS. WILL MAINTAIN LOW PROBABILISTIC SEVERE ALL THE WAY TO THE SWRN TX MOUNTAINS...THOUGH THE HIGHEST THREAT WILL LIKELY REMAIN ALONG NRN PORTION OF THE DRYLINE. ..RACY.. 05/20/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri May 21 07:45:33 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 21 May 2004 02:45:33 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200405210746.i4L7k3e19054@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 210743 SWODY2 SPC AC 210741 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0241 AM CDT FRI MAY 21 2004 VALID 221200Z - 231200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NE PBG 25 ENE BML BHB ...CONT... 25 SSW JFK PIT MIE BLV VIH EMP GLD AKO CYS DGW GCC 50 NNE 81V PHP ANW 40 NW OFK OSC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM SSI AQQ ...CONT... 45 SE GPT LUL CBM MSL BNA BWG OWB PAH POF UNO JLN 40 NNE PNC 50 SSE DRT ...CONT... 45 SW P07 FST DDC LIC DEN LAR RWL RKS EVW EKO WMC 4LW RDM 10 NW DLS 50 ENE BLI ...CONT... 45 NE CTB HVR GDV 55 SSW JMS 50 SSW DLH ANJ ...CONT... 50 WNW 3B1 45 SSE HUL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS EWD ACROSS MID-UPPER MS VALLEY...GREAT LAKES...NEW ENGLAND.... ...SYNOPSIS... IN MID-UPPER LEVELS...MEAN WRN TROUGH AND ERN RIDGE PATTERN IS FCST TO CONTINUE THROUGH DAY-2 PERIOD...BUT WITH SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE ADJUSTMENTS. WRN STATES TROUGH WILL DEAMPLIFY AS SEVERAL PERTURBATIONS EJECT NEWD ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN ROCKIES AND PLAINS...AMIDST BROAD FETCH OF SWLY FLOW. 00Z SHORT-RANGE GUIDANCE AND 21Z SREF OUTPUT ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT THAT ONE OR TWO OF THESE LOWER-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL EJECT NEWD OVER CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE... PRONOUNCED MID-UPPER CYCLONE SHOULD EVOLVE OVER PACIFIC NW FROM SPEED MAXIMA NOW DIGGING SEWD AROUND NERN PERIPHERY OF GULF OF AK RIDGE. AT SFC...CYCLONE SHOULD BE LOCATED INVOF SRN NE/SRN NEB EARLY IN PERIOD...ALONG BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT SHOULD SAG SWD INTO KS DURING DAY. FARTHER E...SYNOPTIC FRONT SHOULD BE QUASISTATIONARY AND ALIGNED PARALLEL TO DEEP-TROPOSPHERIC MEAN FLOW...FROM MO/IA BORDER REGION ENEWD ACROSS SRN/ERN GREAT LAKES AREA AND NEW ENGLAND. WEAK FRONTAL-WAVE CYCLONE MAY RIPPLE EWD ACROSS PA/NY/NEW ENGLAND DURING LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. ...GREAT PLAINS TO UPPER MIDWEST... GREATEST SEVERE PROBABILITIES ARE CONCENTRATED NEAR AND NE OF SFC LOW -- WHERE COMBINATION OF LIFT...SHEAR AND RELATIVELY WEAK CINH ARE MOST CONDUCIVE FOR RAPID AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT. ONCE AGAIN...LARGE TO EXTREME BUOYANCY IS LIKELY OVER LOWER MO VALLEY REGION NEAR FRONTAL ZONE...WITH SFC DEW POINTS UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S F AND STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE 3500-4500 J/KG. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ALONG FRONT WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS WITH 40-50 KT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. SEVERE MCS MAY EVOLVE FROM THIS ACTIVITY AND MOVE ACROSS MID-UPPER MS VALLEY AFTER DARK. SOME SIGNIFICANT SEVERE IS POSSIBLE GIVEN ADEQUATE SHEAR AND SUCH LARGE INSTABILITY...BUT MESOSCALE UNCERTAINTIES PRECLUDE MORE EMPHATIC CATEGORICAL RISK ATTM. POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW AND ASSOCIATED MOIST ADVECTION AND ASCENT MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SEVERE TSTM FORMATION OVER SWRN SD AND ERN WY...PERHAPS AS FAR S AS NEB PANHANDLE AND AS FAR N AS MT FOOTHILLS. THOUGH LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BE RATHER WEAK...STRONGLY CURVED HODOGRAPHS AND AT LEAST MARGINAL DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL POTENTIAL. BECAUSE OF STRONG CAPPING AND POTENTIAL VERY HIGH LCL FOR ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES FORM...MORE MARGINAL/CONDITIONAL SEVERE PROBABILITIES EXIST DURING LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ALONG DRYLINE...FROM CENTRAL KS SSWWD ACROSS W TX. ACTIVITY WOULD BE STRONGLY TIED TO DIABATIC SFC HEATING AND NOT LONG-LIVED. ...GREAT LAKES STATES TO NEW ENGLAND... SCATTERED TSTMS IN MCS CLUSTERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT PERIOD...TRACKING EWD TO ESEWD ACROSS THIS SWATH. THIS INCLUDES POSSIBILITY THAT SEVERE MCS MAY BE ONGOING AT 22/12Z. MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WIND. DERECHO EVENT IS POSSIBLE FROM AFTERNOON ONWARD INTO OVERNIGHT HOURS...HOWEVER MESOSCALE UNCERTAINTIES PRECLUDE MORE CONCENTRATED CORRIDOR OF PROBABILITIES ATTM. IN BETWEEN PRE-EXISTING COMPLEXES AND INVOF SFC FRONTAL ZONE... AFTERNOON/EVENING DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY WITH BOWS AND A FEW SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE. ASIDE FROM OUTFLOW POOLS...FLOW SHOULD BE NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL IN WARM SECTOR...AMIDST 1500-2000 J/KG AFTERNOON MLCAPE. FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD BE MODULATED ON MESOSCALE BY ONE OR MORE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES REMAINING FROM DAY 1 AND/OR EARLY MORNING DAY-2 MCS ACTIVITY. THIS LENDS SOME UNCERTAINTY TO LATITUDINAL POSITIONING OF EFFECTIVE FRONT...AND THEREFORE STRENGTH OF MIDLEVEL FLOW AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AVAILABLE TO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. IN GENERAL TWO REGIMES WILL BE MOST SUITABLE FOR BOTH SUPERCELL POTENTIAL AND SFC-BASED BOW ECHO PROPAGATION -- 1. AREA E OF FRONTAL-WAVE LOW WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IS BACKED BY ISALLOBARIC FORCING AND 2. ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FAVORABLY ALIGNED FOR RIGHT MOTION ...INTERIOR NWRN STATES... WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS POSSIBLE DURING AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING PRIMARILY E OF CASCADES...INCLUDING SNAKE RIVER VALLEY REGION...AS INSOLATION AND OROGRAPHIC ASCENT WEAKEN CINH. STRONG LARGE SCALE COOLING/ASCENT ALOFT...COMBINED WITH SFC DIABATIC HEATING AND 35-50 KT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...MAY SUPPORT WIND/HAIL NEAR SEVERE LEVELS FROM A FEW STORMS. MLCAPE UP TO 500 J/KG POSSIBLE AMIDST 8-9 DEG C/KM MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES. ..EDWARDS.. 05/21/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri May 21 17:36:02 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 21 May 2004 12:36:02 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200405211736.i4LHaUe11936@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 211734 SWODY2 SPC AC 211732 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1232 PM CDT FRI MAY 21 2004 VALID 221200Z - 231200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE SBY 45 SW DCA 15 ENE PKB 15 ENE IND 25 N ALN 35 ESE STJ 30 S MHK 10 SW ICT 25 WNW P28 40 S EAR 25 WNW MCK 30 ENE AKO 30 NE CYS 35 E DGW 20 SSE 81V 30 WSW REJ PHP ANW 60 WSW YKN 30 NW OTG 10 ENE OSC ...CONT... 35 NE PBG 25 ENE BML BHB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NE CTB HVR GDV 55 SSW JMS 50 SSW DLH ANJ ...CONT... 50 WNW 3B1 45 SSE HUL ...CONT... SSI AQQ ...CONT... 45 SE GPT LUL CBM MSL 35 NE BNA 45 ENE BWG 35 E OWB 50 NNE PAH 50 W MDH 15 ESE VIH 35 S SZL 40 NNE PNC 15 NW SPS 55 SW SJT 45 NW DRT ...CONT... 55 SSW MRF 30 NW FST 40 E PVW 40 SSE DDC 40 W RSL 30 N HLC 35 N HLC 40 NW GLD 30 ESE DEN 15 W 4FC 25 W CAG 30 NNW VEL 50 NW PUC 10 SE DPG 20 SE EKO WMC 4LW RDM 10 NW DLS 50 ENE BLI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS ACROSS THE CORN BELT AND GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND/NRN MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE WRN STATES WILL CONTINUE TO DE AMPLIFY AND EJECT NEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS STATES. THIS WILL SUPPRESS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS MAINTAINING A BELT OF MODEST SWLY MIDLEVEL FLOW ARCING FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THE SURFACE...WAVY FRONT WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY FROM NEW ENGLAND WWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. LEE LOW OVER SRN NEB AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE NEWD ALONG THIS FRONT INTO THE CORN BELT BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE A DRYLINE MIXES EWD INTO CNTRL KS...WRN OK AND W TX. THE FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ...GREAT LAKES STATES TO NEW ENGLAND/NRN MID ATLANTIC REGION... SEVERAL POTENTIAL MCS/S WILL TRACK ESEWD ACROSS THE REGION THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. A SEVERE MCS...EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE CORN BELT THIS AFTERNOON...MAY BE ONGOING EARLY SATURDAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER OH VLY EWD INTO THE NRN MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION. THIS TSTM CLUSTER MAY CONTAIN DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. REGION WILL REMAIN ON SRN PERIPHERY OF STRONGEST WLYS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW. OTHER MCS/S WILL ORGANIZE UPSTREAM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND TRACK ESEWD THROUGH THE DAY. MCS TRACKS WILL LIKELY BE FARTHER NWD WITH TIME... SHIFTING INTO NY AND PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT SATURDAY. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTIES ON WHERE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL BE LOCATED FROM PRECEDING MCS/S MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE EXACT LATITUDINAL POSITION OF SEVERE THREATS. BUT...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SIGNIFICANT DAMAGING WINDS SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE BROAD CORRIDOR. ...PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS VLY... ANOTHER ACTIVE SEVERE DAY ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE REGION. DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE WHERE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL BE LOCATED FROM MCS/S THAT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE UPPER MS VLY EARLY IN THE DAY. PRIND THAT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND ACROSS NERN NEB AND SRN IA TO NRN IL AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. THIS BOUNDARY WILL TRANSLATE NWD DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH AIR MASS RAPIDLY RECOVERING. PRESENCE OF NEAR 70F SURFACE DEW POINTS BENEATH VERY STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES OF 4000-4500 J/KG. AS CINH WEAKENS DURING THE AFTERNOON...TSTMS SHOULD INITIATE VCNTY SURFACE LOW OVER ECNTRL/SERN NEB AND WRN IA. VERTICAL SHEAR AND MAGNITUDE OF BUOYANCY WILL LIKELY LEAD TO RAPID GROWTH INTO SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES POSSIBLE. PARTS OF THE AREA MAY BE UPGRADED TO MDT RISK AS BOUNDARY/WAVE CYCLONE PLACEMENT BECOMES MORE CERTAIN. THIS ACTIVITY WILL THEN MOVE EWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...ORGANIZING INTO A DAMAGING WIND EVENT OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW AND ASSOCIATED MOIST ADVECTION AND ASCENT MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SEVERE TSTM FORMATION OVER SWRN SD AND ERN WY...PERHAPS AS FAR S AS NEB PANHANDLE AND AS FAR N AS MT FOOTHILLS. THOUGH LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BE RATHER WEAK...STRONGLY CURVED HODOGRAPHS AND AT LEAST MARGINAL DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL POTENTIAL. BECAUSE OF STRONG CAPPING AND POTENTIAL VERY HIGH LCL FOR ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES FORM...MORE MARGINAL/CONDITIONAL SEVERE PROBABILITIES EXIST DURING LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ALONG DRYLINE...FROM CENTRAL KS SSWWD ACROSS W TX. ACTIVITY WOULD BE STRONGLY TIED TO DIABATIC SFC HEATING AND NOT LONG-LIVED. ...INTERIOR NWRN STATES... A FEW TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...MAINLY E OF CASCADES...INCLUDING SNAKE RIVER VALLEY REGION...AS INSOLATION AND OROGRAPHIC ASCENT WEAKEN CINH. STRONG LARGE SCALE COOLING/ASCENT ALOFT...COMBINED WITH HEATING AND 35-50 KT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...MAY SUPPORT WIND/HAIL NEAR SEVERE LEVELS. ..RACY.. 05/21/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat May 22 07:35:24 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 22 May 2004 02:35:24 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200405220735.i4M7Zte03952@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 220734 SWODY2 SPC AC 220732 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0232 AM CDT SAT MAY 22 2004 VALID 231200Z - 241200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NW MSS 10 SSW BML PWM 30 NE BOS EWB 15 NE ISP 15 NW TTN 25 S IPT 35 WNW PIT 20 S IND 35 WNW CGI 35 W TBN 25 WNW IRK RST 30 WNW EAU 65 E MQT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE ANW CDR 55 WNW CDR 10 SW 81V 30 SSE 4BQ 25 NNW REJ 20 S Y22 15 NNW HON 30 SE MHE 35 SW YKN 20 SE ANW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW 3B1 15 WSW BHB ...CONT... 15 NNE MLB 45 N PIE 25 E TLH 35 N ABY 30 E ANB 15 NNE HSV 35 SE MKL 40 S JBR 25 NW LIT 40 S PGO 20 SW PRX 40 SSW DUA 45 WSW ADM 35 S OKC 25 SSW PNC 45 E ICT FLV 30 NW FNB 35 WSW EAR 20 SSE SNY 30 NW FCL 25 W VEL 35 ESE EKO 45 E BNO 25 E PDX 15 SW SEA 70 E BLI 70 WNW FCA 20 E HLN 40 NNE BIL 25 NNW GDV 40 N BIS 55 WNW AXN 15 SSE BRD 80 ENE ELO. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID MS VALLEY TO THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SD AREA.... ...SYNOPSIS... A BROAD MID-UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT BASIN...WITH TWO EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PROVIDING THE PRIMARY FOCI FOR SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT ON SUNDAY. THE FIRST TROUGH...NOW OVER THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY...WILL EJECT ENEWD TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE NEWD OVER THE MID MS VALLEY TO THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH...NOW DIGGING SWD OVER SRN BRITISH COLUMBIA AND WA...WILL ROTATE EWD FROM THE NRN ROCKIES TO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS LATE IN THE PERIOD. ...MID MS VALLEY TO THE GREAT LAKES... A SURFACE LOW INVOF NRN IA/SE MN EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL DEVELOP NEWD ACROSS WI TO UPPER MI BY SUNDAY NIGHT. ONE OR MORE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS MAY BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD ACROSS NERN IA/WI IN ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE LOW...AND THIS CONVECTION MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS DURING THE DAY FROM CENTRAL/NRN WI TO UPPER MI. FARTHER S...ADDITIONAL STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG A TRAILING SURFACE TROUGH/WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS SE WI/NRN IL AND SPREAD EWD/NEWD TO NRN INDIANA AND LOWER MI. 50-70 KT SWLY MID-UPPER FLOW AND MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY WILL FAVOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THIS AREA. BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT THE THREAT OF A FEW TORNADOES...THOUGH PRONOUNCED BACKING WIND WITH HEIGHT IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER DOES NOT APPEAR IDEAL FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS. OTHERWISE...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BEFORE THE SEVERE THREAT DIMINISHES. FARTHER S...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BECOMES PROGRESSIVELY LESS CERTAIN FROM SRN MO TO ERN OK ALONG THE WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH...AND IN THE WAKE OF THE EJECTING MID LEVEL TROUGH. ANY STORMS THAT FORM ACROSS THIS AREA WILL LIKELY BE TIED TO AFTERNOON HEATING AND ISOLATED IN COVERAGE. IF STORMS DO FORM...DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL FAVOR THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND A FEW DAMAGING GUSTS. ...NRN PA/NY/INTERIOR SRN NEW ENGLAND... THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE LOCATION OF THE EFFECTIVE SURFACE FRONT GIVEN THE INFLUENCE OF MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS ...ONE OF WHICH MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY MORNING. THE 00Z MODELS SUGGEST THAT THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE MORE WIDELY SCATTERED AND IN SMALLER CLUSTERS THAN PREVIOUS DAYS GIVEN A TENDENCY FOR SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER PA/NY DURING THE DAY AND IN THE WAKE OF ANY EARLY CONVECTION ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. STILL...MODERATE INSTABILITY AND 30-40 KT L0W-MID LEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT A THREAT OF STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP DURING THE DAY ALONG RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES OR THE SURFACE FRONT. ...NRN HIGH PLAINS... LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED ACROSS THE DAKOTAS/NEB IN THE WAKE OF THE FIRST EJECTING TROUGH. HOWEVER...LEE CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS /INVOF WRN NEB OR SW SD AND IN ADVANCE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NRN ROCKIES/ WILL PROVIDE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM NERN WY ACROSS WRN SD TO NW NEB. STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MUCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 1000 J/KG...WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR. A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...POSSIBLY EVOLVING INTO A SMALL MCS ACROSS SD OR NRN NEB OVERNIGHT. ...MID ATLANTIC REGION... A MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL PERSIST ALONG AND E OF A DIFFUSE SURFACE TROUGH E OF THE APPALACHIANS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM THE INTERIOR CAROLINAS TO VA...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS AND SOME HAIL. ..THOMPSON.. 05/22/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun May 23 07:38:18 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 23 May 2004 02:38:18 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200405230738.i4N7cme08891@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 230736 SWODY2 SPC AC 230734 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0234 AM CDT SUN MAY 23 2004 VALID 241200Z - 251200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ESE UIN 45 NE MKC 15 ENE FNB 40 S SUX SUX 30 SSW SPW 20 SW MCW 45 NW DBQ 40 W JVL 15 S RFD 30 NE PIA 10 ESE UIN. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE FNT 25 SSE DTW 35 WNW DAY 45 SW LUK 25 NW TYS 40 SW CSV 30 W HOP 25 S TBN 30 NNW JLN 15 WSW BIE 65 W YKN 15 SW BKX 25 NE RST 20 NNW MBS 30 ENE FNT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE NEL ILG 10 S IPT 20 NW ITH 30 NNE SYR 30 WSW SLK 20 NW RUT 30 W EEN 25 WSW BDL 35 E NEL 25 ESE NEL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW DAB CTY 35 WSW TLH 20 SW TOI 20 S CBM 35 SW UOX 25 W LIT 25 ESE MLC 25 S ADM 30 W SEP 45 N JCT 35 W SJT 15 S BGS 45 NNE BGS 40 NNW CDS 50 ENE GAG 30 NNE P28 RSL 30 SSW HLC 55 ENE LAA LHX 30 S MTJ 35 ESE 4HV 45 ESE ELY 35 NNE BAM 70 NNW LOL 35 SW TVL 35 NW SAC 20 ENE ACV 25 NNE OTH 25 ENE HQM 10 SSE SEA 20 WSW YKM 30 NW PDT 35 NE S80 35 W MQM 20 WNW WRL 50 NNW DGW 15 N BFF 25 SSE AIA 20 SSE MHN 20 WSW ANW 20 WNW PIR JMS 15 ENE GFK 30 E INL ...CONT... 15 NNE EFK 30 ENE PSM. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF IA...NRN MO...AND NW IL.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE SLGT RISK AND EXTENDING INTO TN/KY AND LOWER MI.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR ERN NY AND PA.... ...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM EPISODE POSSIBLE ACROSS IA AND ADJACENT STATES... ...MIDWEST AREA... ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE MIDWEST THIS PERIOD AS ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EJECTS EWD FROM THE HIGH PLAINS TO THE MID-UPPER MS VALLEY. A REMNANT LEE CYCLONE ACROSS NEB/KS WILL DEVELOP SWD ACROSS KS WHILE A WAVE DEVELOPS NEWD ACROSS IA TO WI ALONG THE PATH OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S/ WILL SURGE NWD FROM MONDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN NEB AND IA...BENEATH VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE NET RESULT WILL BE STRONG TO EXTREME INSTABILITY IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS NE KS/ERN NEB/IA/NRN MO...WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 3000-4500 J/KG EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP BY MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON INVOF NE NEB/SE SD/NW IA AND SPREAD EWD/SEWD ACROSS IA DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 40-50 KT...THE AFOREMENTIONED INSTABILITY...MOIST LOW LEVELS...AND LOOPING HODOGRAPHS WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ALL APPEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS WITH STRONG TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL. ADDITIONALLY...CONVECTION MAY MERGE AND GROW UPSCALE DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING INTO AN MCS WITH DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS ERN IA/NRN MO/NRN IL...AND PERHAPS REACHING LOWER MI BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. ...NE STATES... A PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO PA/NY DURING THE AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLONE ALONG THE PERSISTENT BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS NY/NEW ENGLAND. A FEED OF MODERATE INSTABILITY FROM THE SW...ALONG WITH SUBSTANTIAL SPEED SHEAR...WILL SUPPORT A THREAT OF SUPERCELLS AND EMBEDDED BOWING SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL FROM MIDDAY THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ...OK/NW TX AREA... THE REGION OF STRONGER LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND MORE WIDESPREAD DEEP CONVECTION WILL REMAIN WELL N/NE OF THIS AREA. HOWEVER...STRONG AFTERNOON HEATING/MIXING ALONG A WEAK DRYLINE MAY ALLOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO. IF THUNDERSTORMS FORM...INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR COULD SUPPORT A THREAT OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL OR STRONG OUTFLOW GUSTS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. ...NE CO AREA... NELY UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS NE CO BY MONDAY EVENING. THOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND STEEP LAPSE RATES MAY SUPPORT AN ISOLATED/MARGINAL THREAT OF HAIL AND WIND. ..THOMPSON.. 05/23/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun May 23 17:36:53 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 23 May 2004 12:36:53 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200405231737.i4NHbMe30938@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 231735 SWODY2 SPC AC 231733 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1233 PM CDT SUN MAY 23 2004 VALID 241200Z - 251200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE UIN 40 SSE P35 15 ENE FNB 40 S SUX SUX 30 SSW SPW 20 SW MCW 45 NW DBQ 30 ESE DBQ 40 SW RFD 15 WSW BMI 40 ESE UIN. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WNW ACY 30 ENE CXY 15 NNW IPT 25 NNW JHW 60 N ROC 30 WSW SLK 20 NW RUT 30 W EEN 20 SSE BDL 15 ESE ISP. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE FNT 25 SSE DTW 35 WNW DAY 45 SW LUK 25 NW TYS 40 SW CSV 30 W HOP 25 S TBN 20 N JLN 20 E ICT 10 SE HUT 10 WSW CNK 30 NNE GRI 65 W YKN 15 SW BKX 25 NE RST 20 NNW MBS 30 ENE FNT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW DAB CTY 35 WSW TLH 20 SW TOI 20 S CBM 35 SW UOX 25 W LIT 25 ESE MLC 25 S ADM 30 W SEP 45 N JCT 35 W SJT 15 S BGS 45 NNE BGS 45 E AMA 40 ESE LBL 30 ENE DDC RSL 30 SSW HLC 55 ENE LAA LHX 30 S MTJ 35 ESE 4HV 45 ESE ELY 35 NNE BAM 70 NNW LOL 35 SW TVL 35 NW SAC 20 ENE ACV 25 NNE OTH 25 ENE HQM 10 SSE SEA 20 WSW YKM 30 NW PDT 35 NE S80 35 W MQM 20 WNW WRL 50 NNW DGW 15 N BFF 25 SSE AIA 20 SSE MHN 20 WSW ANW 20 WNW PIR JMS 15 ENE GFK 30 E INL ...CONT... 15 NNE EFK 30 ENE PSM. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF IA...EXTREME NRN MO AND EXTREME NWRN IL... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS EWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND LOWER OH VLY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NY...NERN PA AND WRN NEW ENGLAND... ...SYNOPSIS... THE MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE UPPER MS VLY WILL TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND TO NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY AS UPSTREAM IMPULSE EJECTS EWD INTO THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS BY MONDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEAD TROUGH WILL CROSS CNTRL NY BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH A TRAILING FRONT THROUGH THE OH VLY. TAIL END OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP NWD INTO ERN NEB...SRN IA/NRN MO AS ANOTHER WAVE DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE NEWD INTO THE UPPER MS VLY BY EARLY TUESDAY WITH A TRAILING FRONT EXPECTED TO SURGE SEWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS. ...MID MO VLY TO THE UPPER MIDWEST/CNTRL GREAT LAKES AREA... POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ANOTHER ACTIVE/SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE WITH VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND STRONG TORNADOES ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MO VLY INTO THE UPPER MS VLY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. H5 HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD BEGIN SPREADING EWD INTO THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS AHEAD OF THE UPSTREAM IMPULSE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE LOW LEVEL RESPONSE WILL BEGIN LATE TONIGHT AND BEGIN ADVECTING MID-UPPER 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS NWWD INTO ERN NEB AND SWRN IA MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO RAPID DESTABILIZATION WITH MLCAPES AOA 3500 J/KG. SOME CONCERN EXISTS ON THE RISK OF ELEVATED CONVECTION RETARDING HEATING ALONG/NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...BUT CONSENSUS AMONG THE MODELS LENDS SOME CONFIDENCE IN STRONG INSTABILITY AXIS DEVELOPING NWD INTO THE MID MO VLY BY LATE AFTERNOON. AS CINH IS ERODED BY HEATING...TSTM INITIATION SHOULD OCCUR SOMEWHERE OVER ERN NEB/SERN SD AND QUICKLY EVOLVE INTO SUPERCELLS GIVEN 50 KTS OF VERTICAL SHEAR. VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. A RISK OF STRONG TORNADOES WILL OCCUR WITH INITIAL STORMS FROM ERN NEB INTO CNTRL/SRN IA WHERE HODOGRAPHS WILL EXHIBIT VERY FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL CURVATURE VCNTY THE WARM FRONT AND LOWERING LCLS. A TREND TOWARD MORE OF A DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL LIKELY OCCUR OVERNIGHT AS STORMS CONGEAL INTO A MCS AND MOVE/DEVELOP EWD THROUGH IA/EXTREME SRN WI AND EVENTUALLY TOWARD LOWER MI...NRN IL AND NRN IND. ...ERN KS/NRN MO SWWD INTO OK... ADDITIONAL TSTMS MAY TEND TO DEVELOP/BACKBUILD ALONG SEWD MOVING COLD FRONT/DRYLINE INTERSECTION FROM NRN MO/ERN KS SWWD INTO NCNTRL OK MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY DEVELOP INTO SUPERCELLS DURING THE EVENING...BUT LIKELY TREND TOWARD CLUSTERS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS DURING THE NIGHT AS THE LLJ INCREASES. OTHER STORMS...POSSIBLY ISOLD SUPERCELLS...COULD DEVELOP SWD ALONG THE DRYLINE INTO WRN OK LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH LARGE HAIL. THESE MAY MERGE WITH THE SWD MOVING STORMS LATER IN THE EVENING ACROSS NCNTRL OK/SERN KS. ...LWR OH/TN VLYS... TSTMS COULD DEVELOP ALONG RETREATING WARM FRONT ACROSS THE LWR OH/TN VLYS AND COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THIS IS A CONDITIONAL SLGT RISK GIVEN THAT SHORT TERM MODELS DIFFER ON PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT. STRONG INSTABILITY IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND GIVEN THAT THE REGION IS ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF THE WLYS...A SEVERE STORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE. ...NY/NCNTRL PA AND INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND... MODEST INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP VCNTY SURFACE LOW AS STRONG MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES BY DURING PEAK HEATING. TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP UPSTREAM ACROSS ONTARIO AND THEN EWD ALONG THE TRACK OF THE LOW/WARM FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS AND BOWING LINE SEGMENTS THAT MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL AND A RISK OF A TORNADO OR TWO. ...NERN CO... NELY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION BY MONDAY EVENING. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY HIGH...BUT IF A STORM DEVELOPS AND SURVIVES...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WILL AUGMENT HAIL/WIND PRODUCTION. ...SERN STATES... WDLY SCT TSTMS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP VCNTY SRN APPALACHIANS AND ALONG LEFT-OVER BOUNDARIES DURING THE LATE MORNING-AFTERNOON. WEAK FLOW WILL KEEP ANY SEVERE THREAT PULSE IN NATURE WITH RISKS OF DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL AS THE STORMS COLLAPSE. ..RACY.. 05/23/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon May 24 08:00:01 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 24 May 2004 03:00:01 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200405240800.i4O80Te11523@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 240757 SWODY2 SPC AC 240756 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0256 AM CDT MON MAY 24 2004 VALID 251200Z - 261200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW SYR 40 S UCA 20 NNW PHL NHK 35 NW RIC 10 E SSU 25 NNE BNA FSM 40 SW TUL 10 E PNC OJC 30 WSW CGX 60 NNE MTC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NE ISN 30 NNW DIK 20 NW REJ 50 SSE GCC CYS 25 ESE DEN 30 WSW COS 45 S MTJ 30 E BCE 50 W P38 35 SE BIH 30 NNE MER 60 NW TVL 25 W TWF 25 WSW 3DU 70 NW HVR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 N DAB 10 NW CTY 35 SSE CSG 20 W ANB 20 NNW TUP 35 W PBF 40 SW PRX 30 S FTW 30 SE JCT 65 SSE DRT ...CONT... 105 S MRF 50 S LBB 20 W GAG 10 SW MHK 35 W CID 25 SW LNR GRB 40 NE RHI 40 SSE DLH 45 WSW HIB 15 WNW INL ...CONT... 25 N PBG 25 E BID. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MO AREA ENEWD TO THE PA AREA.... ...SYNOPSIS... A NRN STREAM TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY REGION...WHILE A BELT OF RELATIVELY FAST WSWLY FLOW PERSISTS FROM THE SRN ROCKIES TO THE OH VALLEY. IN ADVANCE OF THE NRN STREAM TROUGH...AN OCCLUDED SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEWD FROM NRN MN TO ONTARIO...WHILE THE PRIMARY LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE MOVES SLOWLY SEWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY TO LOWER MI. A WARM/MOIST AIR MASS WILL PERSIST FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO THE OH VALLEY TO THE SE OF THIS SURFACE FRONT...WHERE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S WILL BE COMMON. THESE SURFACE CONDITIONS WILL COMBINE WITH ROUGHLY 7 C/KM MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO SUPPORT MODERATE INSTABILITY OVER A BROAD SWATH IN THE WARM SECTOR. THE PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY FOR THIS OUTLOOK CENTERS ON THE EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION FROM LATE DAY 1 INTO EARLY DAY 2...AND ITS INFLUENCE ON THE SURFACE BOUNDARIES LIKELY TO FOCUS CONVECTIVE INITIATION. A SURFACE WAVE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ENEWD FROM THE MS VALLEY TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY TOMORROW NIGHT...THOUGH THIS FEATURE SEEMS TO BE RELATED TO A CONVECTIVELY INDUCED/ENHANCED MID LEVEL SPEED MAX IN EACH MODEL. GIVEN THE INHERENT UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THIS SORT OF FEEDBACK...WILL OPT TO INCLUDE A RELATIVELY BROAD SWATH OF MODEST SEVERE PROBABILITIES. THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AND MAINLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES WITH SUBSTANTIAL SPEED SHEAR WILL SUPPORT BOWING SEGMENTS WITH A WIND DAMAGE THREAT...AND POSSIBLY A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH BOTH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ..THOMPSON.. 05/24/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon May 24 17:28:54 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 24 May 2004 12:28:54 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200405241729.i4OHTKe27822@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 241727 SWODY2 SPC AC 241725 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1225 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2004 VALID 251200Z - 261200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NW ART MSV 25 SSW ACY ...CONT... ILM AVL DYR FSM MLC 55 NNE ABI 75 S CDS 20 WSW CDS 35 NNE CDS END MKC BRL 20 NNW CGX 55 N MTC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE PBG BID ...CONT... DAB 15 SSE CTY CSG 20 W ANB TUP PBF 15 SE PRX 30 S FTW 30 SE JCT 65 SSE DRT ...CONT... 80 S MRF PVW 20 WSW TCC ALS CEZ 65 S BIH SCK 65 SE RBL OWY IDA 25 N DGW MHN MCK 55 SSW LAA 20 SE CAO 35 N AMA 60 S LBL CNK LNR 35 SE CWA 25 SW RHI 45 SE DLH 50 WSW HIB 20 NNW INL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS ENEWD ACROSS THE MIDDLE MS/OHIO/TN VALLEYS...EWD INTO THE PA/NY AREA SWD INTO NC.... ...SYNOPSIS... ANOTHER ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER DAY EXPECTED FROM PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS ENEWD ACROSS THE MIDDLE MS/OHIO/TN VALLEYS...EWD INTO THE PA/NY AREA SWD INTO NC. WSWLY FLOW AT 50-60 KT WILL COVER MUCH OF THE REGION WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING EWD INTO THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM SRN LOWER MI SWWD THROUGH MO INTO OK/NWRN TX BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ...MIDDLE MS VALLEY EWD ACROSS THE SRN GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY... CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN DEPENDING ON LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF CONVECTION/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM TONIGHTS CONVECTION. THE ETA/GFS ARE SIMILAR IN SUGGESTING CONVECTION SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS ERN KS/WRN MO AT 12Z NEAR/NORTH OF COLD FRONT IN ZONE OF STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION. THIS CONVECTION AND/OR ASSOCIATED BOUNDARIES SHOULD SPREAD ENEWD DURING THE DAY WITH STORMS INTENSIFYING AS THEY MOVE INTO A MODERATELY/STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. UNIDIRECTIONAL WSWLY FLOW ALOFT AND WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT IS SUGGESTIVE OF LINEAR STORMS/EMBEDDED BOWS MOVING EWD AT SPEEDS 40+ KT WITH WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY TO CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION AND LOCATION OF THE GREATEST THREAT ...WILL NOT UPGRADE TO MODERATE RISK ATTM. ...WRN NY/PA... ETA/GFS ARE CONSISTENT IN MOVING A LINE/BAND OF CONVECTION EWD INTO THE AREA AFTER 00Z. THIS SHOULD BE THE SAME STORMS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40-50 KT WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR THESE STORMS TO POSSIBLY PRODUCE WIND DAMAGE AS THEY MOVE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE ARE LOWER THAN ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...AS THE COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER MAY INHIBIT THE STRONGER DOWNDRAFTS FROM REACHING THE SURFACE. ...KY/TN/NC/VA... EXPECT CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS LATE TODAY/TONIGHT ACROSS THE MS RIVER VALLEY TO MOVE EWD INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY. MODELS ALSO SUGGEST A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. ALTHOUGH COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL WEST OF THE AREA...CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SHOULD PROVIDE FOCUS FOR NEW THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OR CONTINUATION OF OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY. DEEP LAYER OF 30-40 KT AND MLCAPES BETWEEN 2000-3000 J/KG SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND SCATTERED SEVERE HAIL. ...SRN PLAINS... COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY SWD THROUGH OK AND NWRN TX DURING THE DAY. A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS LIKELY TO BE LOCATED ALONG THE FRONT IN SWRN OK/WRN TX NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF THE COLD FRONT AND DRYLINE. STRONG HEATING IN THE WARM SECTOR AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE TRIPLE POINT AND FRONT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STORMS TO DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON. A STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND 30-40 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL/WIND DAMAGE. ..IMY.. 05/24/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon May 24 18:29:23 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 24 May 2004 13:29:23 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200405241829.i4OITle06985@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 241826 SWODY2 SPC AC 241725 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1225 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2004 VALID 251200Z - 261200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NW ART MSV 25 SSW ACY ...CONT... ILM AVL DYR FSM MLC 55 NNE ABI 75 S CDS 20 WSW CDS 35 NNE CDS END MKC BRL 20 NNW CGX 55 N MTC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE PBG BID ...CONT... DAB 15 SSE CTY CSG 20 W ANB TUP PBF 15 SE PRX 30 S FTW 30 SE JCT 65 SSE DRT ...CONT... 80 S MRF PVW 20 WSW TCC ALS CEZ 65 S BIH SCK 65 SE RBL OWY IDA 25 N DGW MHN MCK 55 SSW LAA 20 SE CAO 35 N AMA 60 S LBL CNK LNR 35 SE CWA 25 SW RHI 45 SE DLH 50 WSW HIB 20 NNW INL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS ENEWD ACROSS THE MIDDLE MS/OHIO/TN VALLEYS...EWD INTO THE PA/NY AREA SWD INTO NC.... ...SYNOPSIS... ANOTHER ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER DAY EXPECTED FROM PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS ENEWD ACROSS THE MIDDLE MS/OHIO/TN VALLEYS...EWD INTO THE PA/NY AREA SWD INTO NC. WSWLY FLOW AT 50-60 KT WILL COVER MUCH OF THE REGION WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING EWD INTO THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM SRN LOWER MI SWWD THROUGH MO INTO OK/NWRN TX BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ...MIDDLE MS VALLEY EWD ACROSS THE SRN GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY... CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN DEPENDING ON LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF CONVECTION/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM TONIGHTS CONVECTION. THE ETA/GFS ARE SIMILAR IN SUGGESTING CONVECTION SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS ERN KS/WRN MO AT 12Z NEAR/NORTH OF COLD FRONT IN ZONE OF STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION. THIS CONVECTION AND/OR ASSOCIATED BOUNDARIES SHOULD SPREAD ENEWD DURING THE DAY WITH STORMS INTENSIFYING AS THEY MOVE INTO A MODERATELY/STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. UNIDIRECTIONAL WSWLY FLOW ALOFT AND WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT IS SUGGESTIVE OF LINEAR STORMS/EMBEDDED BOWS MOVING EWD AT SPEEDS 40+ KT WITH WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY TO CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION AND LOCATION OF THE GREATEST THREAT ...WILL NOT UPGRADE TO MODERATE RISK ATTM. ...WRN NY/PA... ETA/GFS ARE CONSISTENT IN MOVING A LINE/BAND OF CONVECTION EWD INTO THE AREA AFTER 00Z. THIS SHOULD BE THE SAME STORMS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40-50 KT WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR THESE STORMS TO POSSIBLY PRODUCE WIND DAMAGE AS THEY MOVE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE ARE LOWER THAN ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...AS THE COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER MAY INHIBIT THE STRONGER DOWNDRAFTS FROM REACHING THE SURFACE. ...KY/TN/NC/VA... EXPECT CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS LATE TODAY/TONIGHT ACROSS THE MS RIVER VALLEY TO MOVE EWD INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY. MODELS ALSO SUGGEST A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. ALTHOUGH COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL WEST OF THE AREA...CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SHOULD PROVIDE FOCUS FOR NEW THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OR CONTINUATION OF OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY. DEEP LAYER OF 30-40 KT AND MLCAPES BETWEEN 2000-3000 J/KG SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND SCATTERED SEVERE HAIL. ...SRN PLAINS... COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY SWD THROUGH OK AND NWRN TX DURING THE DAY. A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS LIKELY TO BE LOCATED ALONG THE FRONT IN SWRN OK/WRN TX NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF THE COLD FRONT AND DRYLINE. STRONG HEATING IN THE WARM SECTOR AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE TRIPLE POINT AND FRONT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STORMS TO DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON. A STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND 30-40 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL/WIND DAMAGE. ..IMY.. 05/24/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue May 25 07:34:09 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 25 May 2004 02:34:09 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200405250734.i4P7YWe17050@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 250733 SWODY2 SPC AC 250731 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0231 AM CDT TUE MAY 25 2004 VALID 261200Z - 271200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WSW HSE 30 WNW SOP 55 NNE HSV 20 NE ADM 30 ESE CSM 40 S P28 35 W CNU 30 NW SDF 35 NNW CRW 20 S AOO 25 NNE CXY 20 ENE ABE 15 S JFK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE SSI 40 SSW AGS 15 ENE ATL 40 NE CBM 30 WSW PBF 15 W PRX 30 N DAL 45 SSW BWD 30 NW DRT 40 ESE P07 35 WSW P07 30 SW FST 15 N FST 55 SSW LBB 20 SSE PVW 10 S AMA 35 NNE CAO 30 NW TAD 25 NNE DRO 25 NE U17 25 N 4HV 60 N GJT 40 SW BFF 30 NE MHN 45 NNE BUB 10 NE OLU 35 SSE BIE 10 S FLV 15 WSW UIN 15 ESE FWA 35 SE DTW ...CONT... 40 N BML 25 NE LCI 20 SSE PSM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN PLAINS EWD TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.... ...SYNOPSIS... A NRN STREAM MID LEVEL TROUGH...NOW OVER THE NRN PLAINS...WILL MOVE EWD TO THE GREAT LAKES BY TONIGHT AND CONTINUE EWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND BY LATE WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SEWD TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ENEWD FROM THE NRN VA/PA AREA DURING THE DAY TOWARD SRN NEW ENGLAND. THIS SURFACE FRONT WILL STALL ALONG AN AXIS FROM OK TO KY DURING THE DAY...PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. ELSEWHERE...SOME SHALLOW CONVECTIVE SHOWERS MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES AREA...BUT VERY WEAK INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THAT THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL BE QUITE SMALL. FARTHER S...A SRN STREAM TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD OVER AZ...THOUGH L0W-MID LEVEL MOISTURE APPEARS TOO MARGINAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AREA. ...OK TO KY/TN... CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING EARLY INVOF OF THE SURFACE FRONT ACROSS THE ADJACENT AREAS OF OK/KS/MO/AR. MODERATE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALONG AND S OF THE BOUNDARY...WHILE SMALL SCALE SPEED MAXIMA WILL LIKELY TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS THIS AREA DURING THE DAY WITHIN A BELT OF 50-70 KT WLY FLOW. ONE OR MORE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS MAY EMERGE FROM THE MORNING ACTIVITY AND DEVELOP EWD ACROSS TN/KY DURING THE DAY WITH THE THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL/NE OK INTO NRN AR. DEEP LAYER SPEED SHEAR WILL BE QUITE STRONG OVER THIS AREA BENEATH 60-90 KT FLOW IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER...WITH STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS FAVORING SPLITTING SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL AND A FEW DAMAGING GUSTS SHOULD BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS. ...MID ATLANTIC REGION... CONSENSUS OF 00Z MODELS SUGGESTS THAT A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP ENEWD FROM THE NRN VA/PA AREA TOWARD SRN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY. NEAR AND S OF THE LOW TRACK...AND ALONG THE TRAILING SURFACE COLD FRONT...THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY SOME HAIL. THE SEVERE THREAT MAY CONTINUE TO BE LIMITED ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND BY THE COOL MARITIME INFLUENCE...WHILE WARM SECTOR INSTABILITY FARTHER S/SW IS SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING DURING THE DAY 1 PERIOD. ..THOMPSON.. 05/25/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue May 25 17:57:37 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 25 May 2004 12:57:37 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200405251757.i4PHvxO16409@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 251747 SWODY2 SPC AC 251744 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1244 PM CDT TUE MAY 25 2004 VALID 261200Z - 271200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE EWN RWI GSO 35 NW AND 25 NE RMG 15 SSE MKL PGO ADM 25 ESE CSM P28 RSL CNK TOP JEF BLV 25 SW LUK UNI PSB BGM ALB 30 E POU 10 SE JFK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S CRE AHN MSL HOT FTW DRT ...CONT... 90 SSE MRF 10 NNW INK 10 SSW HOB ROW ALM 10 W TCS SAF FMN 35 N GCN SGU U24 VEL BFF 10 SSE 9V9 ABR JMS ISN OLF COD IDA BOI MHS EUG YKM 50 NE 4OM ...CONT... 35 NNW APN MTW VOK ALO DSM IRK MTO 50 SE DAY FKL 35 NW ROC ...CONT... 40 N BML 25 NE LCI 20 SSE PSM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN/MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES...THE OHIO/ TENNESSEE VALLEYS...AND PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS/OZARKS.... UPPER TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG NORTHERN BRANCH OF WESTERLIES ...READILY EVIDENT IN LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA/NORTHEAST PACIFIC...IS PROGGED BY MODELS TO AMPLIFY SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...MODELS SUGGEST SOUTHERN BRANCH CLOSED LOW...CURRENTLY OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST...WILL ACCELERATE EASTWARD...LIKELY PROGRESSING THROUGH AT LEAST THE LOWER COLORADO VALLEY BY THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...INTENSE MID/UPPER JET IS ALREADY LIFTING OUT OF THE LOWER LATITUDE PACIFIC INTO THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU/CENTRAL ROCKIES AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS AROUND SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...AS ANOTHER JET MIGRATES AROUND SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF EASTERN CANADIAN NORTHERN BRANCH TROUGH. ...LOWER OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEY... AS SOUTHERN BRANCH JET STREAK TOPS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...MODELS SUGGEST BELT OF STRONGEST LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW DEVELOPING JUST TO ITS SOUTH...FROM PARTS OF WESTERN KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL APPALACHIANS DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS AND SUPERCELLS NEAR MAIN EAST-WEST BAROCLINIC ZONE...WHICH WILL EITHER REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY OR PRESS A BIT SOUTHWARD TO THE WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS DURING THE DAY. CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH REGARD TO AREAL COVERAGE/ INTENSITY OF THREAT...PRIMARILY DUE TO WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING ALONG FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AT 26/12Z. CLOUD COVER GENERATED BY THIS ACTIVITY MAY LIMIT INSOLATION...BUT WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS AROUND 70F...ENOUGH HEATING MAY OCCUR TO SUPPORT MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG. GIVEN DESTABILIZATION...LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW/ISENTROPIC ASCENT SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE PEAK HEATING...WITH HODOGRAPHS/LOW-LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS. EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF A LOW AMPLITUDE MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING LIKELY WILL SUPPORT INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. EVOLUTION OF MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE SYSTEM APPEARS POSSIBLE...WHICH MAY PERSIST WITH DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND PROGRESS EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES. ...NRN MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES INTO HUDSON/CHAMPLAIN VALLEY... ALTHOUGH BETTER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO AREAS NEAR/SOUTH OF SOUTHERN BRANCH JET...LINGERING MOISTURE AHEAD OF SURFACE FRONT PROGRESSING EAST OF THE LOWER LAKES SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH DAYTIME HEATING. AIDED BY FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND FAVORABLE SHEAR AHEAD OF NORTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH...SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LIKELY FROM PARTS OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA/NEW JERSEY INTO EASTERN NEW YORK STATE. ISOLATED SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE...BUT LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS APPEAR TO BE PRIMARY THREAT BEFORE ACTIVITY WEAKENS WITH LOSS OF HEATING DURING THE EVENING HOURS. ...CENTRAL PLAINS... ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL CAPPING WILL EVENTUALLY STRENGTHEN DOWNSTREAM OF SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM...MODELS SUGGEST INHIBITION MAY REMAIN WEAK ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED CONNECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN VERY MOIST WARM SECTOR ACROSS OKLAHOMA/SOUTHERN KANSAS. NEW DEVELOPMENT APPEARS POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS MID DAY...WHEN MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS. THOUGH LOW-LEVEL FLOW FIELDS MAY BE FAIRLY WEAK...MID/UPPER FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS PRIMARILY WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. BY WEDNESDAY EVENING/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS MID-LEVELS BEGIN TO WARM...PRIMARY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP NORTH OF QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS INTO THE OZARKS. ..KERR.. 05/25/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed May 26 07:50:50 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 26 May 2004 02:50:50 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200405260751.i4Q7p9O24117@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 260748 SWODY2 SPC AC 260746 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0246 AM CDT WED MAY 26 2004 VALID 271200Z - 281200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ERI 20 E FKL 30 SE HGR 10 NNE WAL ...CONT... 25 S EWN 20 NW CLT 20 SSE TYS 30 S BNA 20 NNE FTW 30 N DRT 30 N P07 20 NNE CDS 10 N FLV VOK 25 ENE MTW 30 WSW HTL 45 SSE OSC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NNE MOT 30 WSW BIS 15 SSW REJ 20 SSW CPR 45 WNW RWL 35 NNE DPG 25 ESE BAM 35 NW TVL 45 E UKI 35 WSW MHS 30 ENE PDX 20 ENE BLI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N PBG 30 S GON ...CONT... 20 ENE CRE 30 SE AND 25 ENE TUP 40 S PBF 50 SW TYR 50 SSE DRT ...CONT... 70 SSW P07 55 N MRF 35 ENE ELP 55 NE DUG 25 WNW SAD SOW 25 WSW GNT 10 SW SAF 30 NNW EHA 25 NW CNK 10 N MSP 40 S IWD 35 ESE ANJ. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO THE MID MS/OH VALLEYS...EWD TO PART OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.... ...SYNOPSIS... THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE BY TOMORROW AS A DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN PAC MOVES INLAND OVER THE PAC NW...AND A SRN STREAM TROUGH /NOW OVER SRN CA/ EJECTS ENEWD OVER AZ/NM TO W TX. DOWNSTREAM FROM THE PAC NW TROUGH...HEIGHTS WILL RISE OVER THE NRN PLAINS WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DOWNSTREAM AMPLIFICATION OF A TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE SURFACE...THE GREAT LAKES TROUGH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT...WHILE THE SURFACE FRONT NOW STRETCHING FROM NW TX TO THE OH VALLEY WILL LIFT NWD/NEWD AS A WEAK WARM FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER OH VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES. EXPECT THE FRONT TO MOVE LITTLE OVER THE TX/OK AREA WHILE WEAK CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS AT THE FRONT/DRYLINE INTERSECTION INVOF NW TX...IN ADVANCE OF THE EJECTING SRN STREAM TROUGH. ...SRN PLAINS... THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON ACROSS NW TX AND SPREAD ENEWD AS ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT INTO OK DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT. DEEP LAYER SPEED SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS ACROSS THIS AREA...THOUGH LOW-LEVEL FLOW/SHEAR SHOULD BE RELATIVELY WEAK DURING THE AFTERNOON GIVEN WEAK GRADIENTS AND ONLY WEAK CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS NW TX. THE COMBINATION OF DEEP LAYER SPEED SHEAR AND MODERATE INSTABILITY...ALONG WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF MULTIPLE STORM CLUSTERS...SUGGESTS THAT SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS. ...MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY... LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S/ WILL RETURN NWD/NEWD IN ADVANCE OF THE NRN STREAM TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT. DAYTIME HEATING AND ERN EXTENT OF AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER FROM THE ROCKIES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO POTENTIALLY MODERATE INSTABILITY AS FAR N AS SRN WI AND LOWER MI...WITH STRONG INSTABILITY EXPECTED OVER THE MO/IL AREA. A BROAD AREA WILL BE AT RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WITH STORM CLUSTERS AND/OR SUPERCELLS GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND 0-6 KM SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 50 KT...THOUGH IT IS DIFFICULT TO IDENTIFY A WELL-DEFINED FOCUS FOR INITIATION ATTM. ...ID AREA... LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL INCREASE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AS THE DEEP TROUGH REACHES THE PAC NW COAST BY TOMORROW NIGHT. PROFILES WILL ALSO BECOME MORE MOIST WITH TIME...SUPPORTING AN INCREASING THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING. THOUGH INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. ..THOMPSON.. 05/26/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed May 26 17:41:49 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 26 May 2004 12:41:49 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200405261742.i4QHg6O27590@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 261740 SWODY2 SPC AC 261738 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1238 PM CDT WED MAY 26 2004 VALID 271200Z - 281200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNW ROC ELM CXY WAL ...CONT... 25 S EWN RDU GSO HSS 30 S BNA 20 NNE FTW 60 NE P07 50 N BGS 20 NNE CDS LTS PNC EMP FLV DBQ 15 E JVL MBL 10 ENE APN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NE HVR MLS 4BQ 20 SSW CPR RKS DPG U31 20 NNW TVL RBL 35 WSW MHS 30 ENE PDX 20 ENE BLI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SSW P07 55 N MRF GDP ELP 10 NNE SAD INW FMN RSL FNB MCW MSP IWD 130 NE CMX ...CONT... 20 NNE PBG ORH 35 W ACK ...CONT... 15 NNE CRE GSP CHA MSL PBF TXK TPL 30 SSE DRT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MS/OH VALLEYS AND SRN GREAT LAKES INTO MID ATLANTIC STATES...AS WELL AS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN/CNTRL PLAINS.... LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE VERY SIMILAR WITH REGARD TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE-SCALE UPPER FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE NATION THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. UPPER TROUGH NOW OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA/ NORTHEAST PACIFIC IS PROGGED TO AMPLIFY AND DIG SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO PACIFIC COAST STATES BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. AS THIS OCCURS...A COUPLE OF SIGNIFICANT TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITHIN DOWNSTREAM SPLIT BRANCHES OF STRONGER WESTERLIES WILL ACCELERATE EASTWARD...LIKELY PROVIDING FORCING FOR A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN STATES. ...MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EASTWARD... IN NORTHERN BRANCH OF WESTERLIES...BROAD TROUGH WITH EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH REGARD TO DETAILS OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. HOWEVER...STRONG MID/UPPER JET IN BASE OF TROUGH...IN TANDEM WITH BROAD INTENSE ANTICYCLONIC SOUTHERN STREAM JET...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS. BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN MOIST AND POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE...SUPPORTIVE OF INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...BEFORE COLD FRONT SURGES INTO/THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY BY EARLY FRIDAY. CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC ISENTROPIC ASCENT APPEARS LIKELY TO SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE APPALACHIANS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR AREAS FROM CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA IN TIME FOR SUBSTANTIAL DAYTIME HEATING. MODELS SUGGEST AREA OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT COULD DEVELOP ALONG THIS AXIS BY LATE AFTERNOON...AS A MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHIFTS ACROSS MICHIGAN/NORTHERN INDIANA DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE SUPPORTIVE OF ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...WITH STORMS LIKELY QUICKLY BECOMING ROOTED IN BOUNDARY LAYER WITH MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE UP TO AROUND 2000 J/KG. A FEW SEVERE STORMS APPEAR LIKELY...WITH VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS...PERHAPS ISOLATED TORNADOES. FURTHER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO SURFACE FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA/SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN... WHERE FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT AND SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SEVERE POTENTIAL. ACTIVITY THROUGHOUT THE OHIO VALLEY WILL TEND TO DEVELOP EAST SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE EVENING HOURS...SLOWLY DIMINISHING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AS IT PROGRESS INTO THE APPALACHIANS AND AREAS SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. ...SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... SOUTHERN BRANCH CLOSED LOW IS PROGGED EASTWARD INTO NEW MEXICO DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THOUGH DRY LINE WILL BE FARTHER EAST...ACROSS WEST TEXAS INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA...MID-LEVEL COLD POOL WITH 500 MB TEMPERATURES AOB -15C WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION AS BOUNDARY LAYER HEATS ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO. THIS MAY SUPPORT A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF HIGH-BASED CONVECTION WITH POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS AND SOME HAIL. AS 50+ KT SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL JET NOSES ACROSS WEST TEXAS... FOLLOWED BY STRONGER MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS...CONVECTION SHOULD INITIATE AND QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE ALONG DRY LINE. MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE NEAR DRY LINE MAY EXCEED 2000 J/KG...AND GIVEN STRENGTH OF MID/UPPER FLOW...A FEW SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY. MODELS SUGGEST LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK...LIMITING TORNADO THREAT...BUT ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. AS UPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES EASTWARD INTO THE LOWER PLAINS THURSDAY EVENING...MID-LEVEL CAP WILL FINALLY WEAKEN. SUPPORTED BY STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET...MID/UPPER FORCING APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR EVOLUTION OF LARGE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS. RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS WILL INCREASE AS SYSTEM EVOLVES...AND MAY PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS SYSTEM SLOWLY PROGRESSES EASTWARD. ..KERR.. 05/26/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu May 27 07:32:24 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 27 May 2004 02:32:24 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200405270732.i4R7WeO29537@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 270731 SWODY2 SPC AC 270729 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0229 AM CDT THU MAY 27 2004 VALID 281200Z - 291200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NNW GFK 50 NE FAR 35 SSW AXN 25 NW OTG 15 ENE YKN 40 WNW YKN 20 SW 9V9 45 E DIK 20 ENE P24 45 NNE MOT 55 NNW GFK. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE RMG 35 SSW MEM 40 WNW TXK 25 NE DUA 40 NW MLC 25 N UMN 50 SSW BLV 50 W LOZ 35 ESE RWI 10 S EWN 35 ENE CRE 20 NNE RMG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW CRE 30 SE RMG CBM 15 W ELD 35 SSW GGG 30 WNW CLL 10 NNW AUS 45 E JCT 20 SSW BWD 20 NW MWL 15 ENE SPS 20 SE CSM 30 SW GAG 30 SW EHA 10 NNW TAD 55 WNW ALS 30 ESE U17 35 SE SGU 20 E DRA 20 SW TPH 25 SSE SVE 25 N MFR 25 E AST 40 WNW BLI ...CONT... 40 NNW ELO 40 SE ELO 65 SW IWD 25 SSE EAU 20 S CID 30 SSE UIN 50 NNW EVV 25 NW CRW 35 NNW CXY 40 NNE MSV 25 WNW EFK 35 N BML 10 NE PWM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN OK TO TN AND NC.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS AND EXTREME WRN MN.... ...SYNOPSIS... A DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND ROCKIES...WHILE A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD OVER NEW ENGLAND. THE REMNANTS OF THE SRN STREAM TROUGH NOW OVER SW AZ WILL EJECT ENEWD FROM N TX/SRN OK TO THE MS VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID ATLANTIC REGION DURING THE DAY...PROVIDING A POTENTIAL FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY AND AT BEST WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT SUGGEST THAT ANY SEVERE STORM THREAT WILL BE RELATIVELY LIMITED...AND SHOULD CONSIST OF ISOLATED STRONG GUSTS FROM SE NEW ENGLAND TO THE CHESAPEAKE AREA. THE THREAT FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL BE SOMEWHAT GREATER FROM ERN OK TO TN AND NC...AND ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS AREA. ...ERN OK TO TN AND NC... THE QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT WILL AGAIN PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY. THE EJECTING REMNANTS OF THE SRN STREAM TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN A BELT OF 50 KT MID LEVEL FLOW OVER THE BOUNDARY...WHERE MODERATE INSTABILITY IS LIKELY DURING THE DAY. ONE OR MORE STORM CLUSTERS SHOULD MOVE EWD ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME HAIL. ...DAKOTAS... LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN NWD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE NRN PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO LEE CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. STEEP L0W-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S...ALONG WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90 F...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SBCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG ACROSS ERN SD DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE CAP WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG OVER THIS AREA...SO A FEW STORMS MAY FORM NEAR PEAK HEATING INVOF THE DEVELOPING SURFACE WARM FRONT. STORMS ACROSS THIS AREA COULD BECOME SUPERCELLS...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS. OVERNIGHT...A STRONG WAA PATTERN ON THE NOSE OF A 50-60 KT LLJ SHOULD SUPPORT ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS WRN MN AND ERN ND...WHERE ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. ..THOMPSON.. 05/27/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu May 27 17:35:41 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 27 May 2004 12:35:41 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200405271735.i4RHZtQ08610@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 271734 SWODY2 SPC AC 271732 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1232 PM CDT THU MAY 27 2004 VALID 281200Z - 291200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW ANB 20 SW GLH 25 S GGG 35 SSE DAL 30 ENE ADM 35 ESE POF 40 E BWG 25 E GSO 15 WNW FAY 40 SE SPA 25 WSW ANB. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNW GFK 30 SSE BJI 20 S STC 25 ESE FRM 55 NE OMA 30 WNW OMA 35 SW 9V9 50 NNW PHP 20 W DIK 40 NE MOT 45 NNW GFK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW CHS 20 NNE MCN 10 SE 0A8 50 NNE HEZ 55 SE AUS 45 E JCT 50 SW BWD 40 ENE ABI 45 SE CDS 30 ENE AMA 50 NNE EHA 40 E AKO PUB 45 SSE GUC 4HV 20 WSW SGU 45 WNW DRA 35 N BIH 50 NNW WMC 20 N EUG 15 NNW HQM 10 N BLI ...CONT... 60 WNW RRT 10 S HIB 40 W LNR 35 E UIN 10 ENE VIH 15 NNE OWB 35 NE LEX 25 W LBE 35 NE BGM 25 WNW EFK 35 NW BML 50 N BML 20 WSW 3B1 35 SW BHB. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SERN OK / THE ARKLATEX REGION ENEWD TO THE WRN CAROLINAS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE MID MO VALLEY / NRN PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE MID-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM ERN CANADA INTO THE ERN U.S. SHOULD BECOME MORE NEGATIVELY-TILTED WITH TIME...WHILE SECOND LARGE TROUGH MOVES EWD ACROSS THE WRN U.S. / ROCKIES. IN BETWEEN...A SHORT-WAVE RIDGE SHOULD SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THE ERN CONUS...WHILE FARTHER SW THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD BECOME MORE W-E ORIENTED ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. TRAILING PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY OVER THE PLAINS SHOULD BEGIN RETREATING NWD AS A WARM FRONT AHEAD OF HIGH PLAINS CYCLOGENESIS AHEAD OF APPROACHING WRN UPPER TROUGH. ...SERN OK / NERN TX EWD ACROSS THE TN VALLEY INTO THE WRN CAROLINAS... STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ALONG SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM SERN OK / THE ARKLATEX REGION ENEWD ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...INCLUDING A POSSIBLE MCS OVER SERN OK AND VICINITY AHEAD OF MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. ALTHOUGH THIS TROUGH SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EWD INTO MORE CONFLUENT FLOW...ASSOCIATED SPEED MAX ALONG WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY ALONG W-E SURFACE BOUNDARY SUGGESTS THAT AN AXIS OF SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD EXIST -- PERHAPS AS FAR E AS THE WRN CAROLINAS. MAIN SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WITH A FEW STRONGER STORM CLUSTERS...AS DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD SHOULD BE GENERALLY UNDIRECTIONAL / WSWLY. ...MID MO VALLEY INTO THE NRN PLAINS... SHORT-WAVE RIDGING ALOFT IS FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THIS REGION DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF LARGE TROUGH CROSSING THE WRN U.S. / ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION. RESULTING WARMING / SUBSIDENCE OVER THE PLAINS SHOULD SUPPRESS MOST CONVECTION THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. HOWEVER... SURFACE FRONT RETREATING NWD ACROSS THIS REGION MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED TO ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT BY LATE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT LIMITED /GENERALLY 500 TO 1500 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE/...INCREASING SLY LOW-LEVEL JET COUPLED WITH 25 TO 35 KT WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE -- PARTICULARLY INVOF THE MO VALLEY OF ERN SD / ERN NEB / WRN IA DURING THE AFTERNOON / EARLY EVENING -- WITH A LESSER THREAT WWD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. OVERNIGHT...INCREASINGLY-STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET AND ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION SHOULD HELP SHIFT MAIN SEVERE THREAT NWD / NEWD. GIVEN PRIMARILY ELEVATED NATURE OF CONVECTION FORECAST OVERNIGHT...MAIN THREAT SHOULD SHIFT TOWARD HAIL. ...SRN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION... MODERATELY-STRONG DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD BUT GENERALLY LIMITED LAPSE RATES / INSTABILITY ARE FORECAST FROM NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AHEAD OF EWD-MOVING COLD FRONT. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ALONG AND AHEAD OF FRONT...THUS LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER...GIVEN STRENGTH OF WIND FIELD...A FEW SEVERE STORMS / STORM CLUSTERS WHICH COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY DAMAGING GUSTS OR MARGINALLY-SEVERE HAIL ARE EXPECTED...PARTICULARLY WHERE POCKETS OF LOCALLY GREATER INSTABILITY DEVELOP. THREAT SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING AS BOUNDARY MOVES OFFSHORE AND AIRMASS STABILIZES. ..GOSS.. 05/27/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri May 28 07:40:08 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 28 May 2004 02:40:08 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200405280740.i4S7eLQ25845@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 280738 SWODY2 SPC AC 280736 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0236 AM CDT FRI MAY 28 2004 VALID 291200Z - 301200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NNW BVO 30 WNW PNC 40 SW P28 50 SSW RSL 15 SE HSI OFK 20 SSW FSD OTG 20 NW FOD 45 WSW DSM 10 NW FLV 30 S TOP 55 NNW BVO. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW RRT 30 E STC 55 NW DBQ 40 NE IRK 35 NE JLN 30 S TUL 20 W ADM 55 NE ABI 70 S CDS 40 S GAG 50 S HLC 15 WNW EAR 60 W YKN 25 WNW ABR 70 N DVL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW ANJ 15 SSE MBL 30 WSW GRR 35 WSW SBN BMG 25 WNW JKL 10 NNW GSO 50 SW HSE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE SAV 30 NE CSG 20 E CBM 30 SE PBF 30 SE TXK 45 S TYR 10 SW AUS 45 NW HDO 45 NW DRT 30 ESE FST 10 E LBB 30 S LBL LAA 45 ENE ALS 30 NW DRO 45 N BCE 50 WNW OGD 45 NW PIH 25 NNE CTB. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ERN NEB/WRN IA INTO CENTRAL AND ERN KS AND NWRN MO... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MUCH OF CENTRAL U.S. OUTSIDE OF MDT RISK AREA... ...WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING CENTRAL U.S... ...SYNOPSIS... UNSEASONABLY STRONG AND BROAD UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES ON DY2 WITH ASSOCIATED COLD UPPER LOW MOVING INTO ERN MT BY 12Z SUN. ETA/GFS BASIC AGREEMENT ON SURFACE FEATURES WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM LOW CENTER SRN SASKATCHEWAN SEWD INTO A SECOND LOW OVER CENTRAL SD THEN SWWD INTO SRN UT SAT MORNING. BY LATE AFTERNOON THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS EWD INTO ERN DAKOTAS WITH THE SD LOW MOVING NEWD TO VICINITY MN/ND/SD BORDER WHILE A LOW DEEPENS OVER WRN KS AT THE TRIPLE POINT OF THE COLD FRONT/DRY LINE. THE DRY LINE WILL EXTEND SWD VICINITY OK/TX BORDER TO BIG BEND. IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT/DRY LINE 40-50 KT OF 850MB SLY FLOW WILL EXTEND FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO THE CANADIAN BORDER. A VERY MOIST GULF AIR MASS WILL SPREAD NWD BY LATE AFTERNOON TO THE CANADIAN BORDER WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S COMMON AND NEAR 70F ERN NEB/WRN IA SWD. WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 7C/KM THE RESULT WILL BE HIGHLY UNSTABLE AIR E OF FRONT/DRY LINE NWD TO CANADIAN BORDER BY MID AFTERNOON. ...CENTRAL U.S... STRONG MID LEVEL COOLING AND HEIGHT FALLS SPREAD ACROSS NRN PLAINS INTO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A LEAD S/WV TROUGH ROTATES NEWD AHEAD OF UPPER LOW. ANOTHER S/WV TROUGH MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL ROCKIES AND DOES NOT ENTER CENTRAL PLAINS UNTIL LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS INDICATE PRONOUNCED UPPER DIVERGENCE DEVELOPING BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON FROM ERN DAKOTAS SWD TO ERN NEB/WRN IA AHEAD OF FIRST S/WV TROUGH. A VERY TO EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS DEVELOPS BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS MUCAPES OF 3000-4000 J/KG COMMON E OF COLD FRONT/DRY LINE. AS CAP WEAKENS UNDER THE LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF TROUGH AND THE STRONG HEATING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND BECOME WIDESPREAD BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF FRONT SWD INTO CENTRAL/ERN KS. THE AREA OF GREATEST POTENTIAL INSTABILITY...FAVORABLE UPPER DIVERGENCE AND VEERING SHEAR PROFILES SHOULD EXIST FROM ERN NEB/WRN IA SWD ALONG DRY LINE INTO CENTRAL KS. THIS REGION WOULD SEEM AS AN AREA FOR THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF SEVERE STORMS ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES. FURTHER N AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS SD AND S/WV TROUGH...BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ENHANCE HELICITY AND POSSIBLE TORNADO POTENTIAL ERN ND/SD INTO WRN MN EVEN THOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE AS HIGH AS FURTHER S. FROM CENTRAL KS SWD THE CAP STRENGTH WILL BE AN ISSUE. HOWEVER THE EXPECTED EXTREME INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH 40-50 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTS A CONDITIONAL RISK OF SEVERE WITH ANY STORMS THAT CAN FORM. ..HALES.. 05/28/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat May 29 07:09:13 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 29 May 2004 02:09:13 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200405290709.i4T79Kj25863@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 290707 SWODY2 SPC AC 290705 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0205 AM CDT SAT MAY 29 2004 VALID 301200Z - 311200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WNW AND RMG 20 N TUP 40 WSW MEM 35 W POF 50 ESE VIH 20 SSW SPI 40 ENE BMI 30 W SBN 15 N TOL 20 SSE CLE 25 SW HLG 25 S CRW 15 S HSS 55 WNW AND. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE GSP 30 ESE ATL 20 SSW BHM 40 NNW JAN 40 SE TXK PRX 35 NNW MLC OJC 45 SSW ALO 10 W VOK 30 SSW ESC 30 SW APN 20 ESE ERI 30 NNE LBE 25 NNW SHD 20 E HKY 25 SSE GSP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NE ART 25 NNE NEL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE CHS 20 E VLD 30 SE TLH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ESE NIR 15 WSW AUS 45 SSW SPS 15 ENE CSM 15 SW SLN 25 W BIE 60 SSE 9V9 35 S PHP 35 E SHR 60 ENE HVR. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MUCH OF OH AND TN VALLEYS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MID AND UPPER MS VALLEY EWD TO APPALACHIANS OUTSIDE OF THE MDT RISK AREA... ...WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY MUCH OF OH AND TN VALLEYS... ...LARGE PORTION OF MID MS/OH AND TN VALLEYS... UNSEASONABLY STRONG TROUGH REMAINS PROGRESSIVE ON DY2 WITH VIGOROUS MID/UPPER LEVEL JET MAX ROTATING RAPIDLY EWD ACROSS LOWER MO VALLEY INTO THE OH VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE W OF N UNDER THE UPPER LOW OVER NRN MS VALLEY DURING THE PERIOD...A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING JET MAX AND S/WV TROUGH DEVELOPS AT TRIPLE POINT OF WARM/COLD FRONT AND MOVES ENEWD ACROSS NRN OH VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT. VERY MOIST AIR MASS WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE 70S WILL SPREAD NEWD ACROSS MUCH OF AREA BETWEEN MS VALLEY AND APPALACHIANS DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH BY 18Z SHOULD BE LOCATED FROM THE SURFACE LOW OVER MN SWD INTO ERN MO AND THEN SWWD INTO SWRN TX. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT ACROSS OH/TN VALLEYS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF 50KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR...MUCAPES OF 3000 J/KG AND HIGHER AND INCREASING ASCENT SPREADING EWD WITH S/WV TROUGH AND MID/UPPER LEVEL JET MAX WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS. TORNADOES WILL BE LIKELY WITH STORMS EVOLVING INTO LINES AND BOWS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING SUNDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE STRONG COUPLED JET INTERACTS WITH THE VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS THAT WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW NEWD ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEYS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THRU SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES AFTER DARK GIVEN THE TIMING OF THE INCREASING SUPPORT FROM THE APPROACHING JET MAX AND AVAILABILITY OF A VERY MOIST AIR MASS. THE EFFECTS OF ONGOING CONVECTION FROM DY1 WILL LIKELY PLAY A ROLE IN THE INITIATION OF SURFACE BASED STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS IS DIFFICULT TO EVALUATE ATTM...HOWEVER THE THERMODYNAMICS AND KINEMATICS ALL POINT TO A VERY ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER DAY OVER A LARGE AREA BETWEEN MS RIVER VALLEY AND APPALACHIANS. ..HALES.. 05/29/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat May 29 17:55:19 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 29 May 2004 12:55:19 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200405291755.i4THtQj28530@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 291753 SWODY2 SPC AC 291751 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1251 PM CDT SAT MAY 29 2004 VALID 301200Z - 311200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE CBM GLH 35 NW TXK 20 E FSM 45 ENE COU 10 WSW JVL 25 E SBN 15 SW MFD 20 ENE PKB 10 NE 5I3 40 NW CHA 30 NE CBM. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 E CHA 25 ESE RMG 45 SW TCL 30 WNW MLU 15 E DAL 55 E OKC 35 WSW JLN 30 WNW SZL 20 W LSE 50 NW EAU 35 WNW AUW 25 SE GRR 25 WSW DUJ 20 SSE LBE 45 SW EKN 50 E CHA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N BUF 25 SSE IPT 25 SSE NEL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NE SSI 30 WNW ABY 20 WSW PNS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE BPT 25 N VCT 45 SE JCT 25 SE MWL 25 NNW CSM 30 NNW P28 15 ENE HLC 30 ENE LIC 45 WSW LAR 15 S 81V 65 NW GGW. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF AR / SERN MO / IL / IN / OH / KY / TN / NRN MS AND NWRN AL... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK AREA...AND COVERING MUCH OF THE REGION FROM THE ARKLATEX NWD INTO WI AND EWD TO THE APPALACHIANS... ...SYNOPSIS... SIGNIFICANT / WIDESPREAD SEVERE EVENT SHAPING UP FOR THE DAY 2 PERIOD ACROSS A LARGE AREA FROM AR / SERN MO / IL EWD TO THE APPALACHIANS AS UNSEASONABLY STRONG MID-LEVEL TROUGH -- AND ASSOCIATED 70 TO 80 KT MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX MOVE EWD ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE MS / OH / TN VALLEYS. TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TAKE ON AN INCREASINGLY NEGATIVE TILT WITH TIME...WITH LARGE AREA OF DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ACROSS THIS REGION. AT THE LOW LEVELS...STRONG SLY WINDS AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD FRONT WILL ADVECT 70S DEWPOINTS NWD TO THE SRN FRINGES OF THE GREAT LAKES ALONG AND SOUTH OF RETREATING WARM FRONT. THE COLD FRONT INITIALLY EXPECTED FROM A SRN MN LOW CENTER SWWD ACROSS ERN KS INTO WRN OK IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD TO AN IL / SERN MO / NWRN AR / NERN TX LINE BY LATE AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT...THIS FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE EWD...CROSSING THE TN VALLEY AND REACHING THE APPALACHIANS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. ...MID MS / TN / OH VALLEYS... ONGOING CONVECTION -- PARTICULARLY ALONG RETREATING WARM FRONT ACROSS IA / IL AND THE OH VALLEY REGION -- WILL COMPLICATE THE FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD...AS WILL UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING CONVECTIVE MODE -- I.E. PRIMARILY LINEAR VS. MORE ISOLATED SUPERCELLS OR SOME COMBINATION OF THE TWO. HOWEVER...BROAD PICTURE INDICATES A SIGNIFICANT / WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE ACROSS A LARGE AREA FROM PARTS OF AR / MO / IL EWD TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS AS VERY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS ADVECTS NWD BENEATH UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER FLOW. ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT ALTHOUGH STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING INVOF RETREATING WARM FRONT EARLY IN THE PERIOD...INITIAL SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY BE WITH STORMS DEVELOPING NEAR AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON AS STRONGER WIND FIELD SPREADS SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE MS AND INTO THE OH VALLEY DURING THE DAY. AIRMASS SHOULD BECOME AT LEAST MODERATELY UNSTABLE /2000 TO 3000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE/ THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH AXIS OF GREATEST INSTABILITY EXPECTED JUST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. STRENGTH OF FORCING ALONG FRONT SUGGESTS THAT STORMS MAY EVOLVE FAIRLY RAPIDLY INTO A LINE. HOWEVER... WIDESPREAD HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR WOULD ALSO SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT FURTHER AHEAD OF FRONT ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. MOST WIDESPREAD PRE-COLD FRONTAL DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY BE FOCUSED ALONG WARM FRONT...AND AS DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD INCREASES DURING THE AFTERNOON...SUPERCELL STORMS AND ASSOCIATED SEVERE / TORNADO THREAT SHOULD INCREASE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WHICH WILL LIKELY BE MOVING NWD ACROSS NRN IL / NRN IN / OH. ALONG AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...STORMS WILL LIKELY TREND TOWARD A LINEAR CONFIGURATION WITH TIME...ALTHOUGH PERHAPS REMAINING MORE ISOLATED FURTHER S INTO AR GIVEN THAT CAPPING SHOULD BE STRONGER AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING FOCUSED A BIT FURTHER NORTH. IN ADDITION TO VERY LARGE HAIL AND POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS ALONG LINE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THIS REGION. HOWEVER...GREATEST THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT / LONG-TRACK TORNADOES WOULD LIKELY BE WITH MORE ISOLATED STORMS -- MAINLY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT OR INVOF RETREATING WARM FRONT. OVERNIGHT...STORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME INCREASINGLY LINEAR ALONG AND AHEAD OF EWD-MOVING COLD FRONT...WHILE SEVERE THREAT -- INCLUDING WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...AND TORNADOES...WILL CONTINUE -- LIKELY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. ..GOSS.. 05/29/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun May 30 07:18:57 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 30 May 2004 02:18:57 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200405300719.i4U7J1j27958@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 300717 SWODY2 SPC AC 300715 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0215 AM CDT SUN MAY 30 2004 VALID 311200Z - 011200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE ILM 40 WSW AGS 15 E SEM 30 W HEZ 35 SSW SHV TXK 10 NNW PBF 60 ENE MKL 30 NW HTS 20 SW LBE 10 SSE JFK 10 SW JFK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE JAX CTY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE MSY 10 NNE BPT 35 E AUS 30 SE SEP 15 N DUA 40 S HRO 30 N PAH 40 N SDF 35 E MIE 30 NNW LAF 25 WNW UIN 35 N FNB 35 SE 9V9 40 NE ABR 70 ESE ELO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WSW MSS 25 NNE EWB. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MID ATLANTIC STATES AND PORTIONS OF GULF COAST STATES... ...SYNOPSIS... BY MONDAY SURFACE AND UPPER LOW BECOME NEARLY VERTICAL OVER UPR MS VALLEY...WHILE STRONG BAND OF WINDS ON S SIDE OF LOW CONTINUE DRIVING EWD TO MID ATLANTIC COAST BY END OF FORECAST PERIOD. A WARM FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM DELMARVA NWWD INTO WRN PA MON AM AND SLOWLY MOVE NWD DURING THE DAY. THE EXPECTED LINES OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT OH/TN VALLEYS LIKELY WILL BECONTINUING IN A SOMEWHAT WEAKENED FORM AND CROSSING THE APPALACHIANS MONDAY AM. COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BE MOVING EWD ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS BY MID DAY AND EXTENDING SWWD ACROSS NRN GULF STATES AND THEN WWD TO NRN TX WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF APPALACHIANS OF VA/MD AHEAD OF THE S/WV TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL WIND MAX DURING THE AFTERNOON AND MOVE OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT. ...MID ATLANTIC STATES... A SWLY FLOW OF VERY MOIST AND MODERATELY TO VERY UNSTABLE AIR WILL SPREAD FROM GULF STATES NEWD INTO MID ATLANTIC STATES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. SHEAR WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY ACROSS MID ATLANTIC STATES AHEAD OF WIND MAX AND DEVELOPING LEE LOW. BY AFTERNOON SFC-6KM SHEAR OF 40-50 KT WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EITHER WITH COLD FRONT OR OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY. ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND CONVERGENCE VICINITY OF WARM FRONT/SURFACE LOW SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS DELMARVA PORTION OF OUTLOOK. IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING WIND THREAT THERE COULD BE A TORNADO THREAT AS WELL GIVEN THE LOW LCL'S AND POTENTIAL INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PROFILES. LATER OUTLOOKS WILL BE BETTER ABLE TO EVALUATE TORNADO POTENTIAL GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY YET IN THE MODEL EVOLUTION IN THIS AREA. ...GULF COAST STATES... OUTFLOW FROM OVERNIGHT STORMS AND/OR COLD FRONT WILL BE FOCUS OF REDEVELOPMENT OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF INLAND PORTION OF GULF COAST STATES WWD TO NRN LA/SRN AR. WARM SECTOR AIRMASS WILL REMAIN VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE WHICH COUPLED WITH 30-40 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR PRIMARILY MULTICELLULAR SEVERE THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND A LESSOR THREAT OF LARGE HAIL. ...UPPER MS VALLEY... COLD UPPER LOW OVER THIS AREA SHOULD SUPPORT AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WITH A MARGINAL HAIL THREAT GIVEN THE LOW WET BULB ZEROS. ..HALES.. 05/30/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun May 30 17:52:52 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 30 May 2004 12:52:52 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200405301752.i4UHqtj24113@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 301750 SWODY2 SPC AC 301749 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1249 PM CDT SUN MAY 30 2004 VALID 311200Z - 011200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE ILM 15 SSE FLO 20 SW AGS 40 S CSG 45 ESE MCB 25 NNE CLL 15 WSW ACT 40 N ACT 40 S PRX 35 ENE TUP 40 E BNA 60 N POF 55 SSW SZL 15 SE STJ 35 NNW DSM AUW 50 SE MBL 25 NE MTC ...CONT... 45 WNW ERI 30 ESE BFD 35 WNW ABE 10 S ACY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WNW SYR 10 NE NEL ...CONT... 15 SSE SSI 25 NW AQQ ...CONT... 20 NW BVE 15 N 7R4 60 S CLL 40 WNW TPL MWL 30 NNW TXK 55 E LIT 20 W DYR 10 N POF 30 NW SGF 20 ENE EMP 10 NNE OLU 20 NW SPW 75 NNE DVL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE ERN CONUS... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE / NEGATIVELY-TILTED MID-LEVEL TROUGH -- FORECAST TO BE THE MAIN LARGE-SCALE FEATURE ASSOCIATED WITH SEVERE THREAT FOR DAY 2 -- IS EXPECTED AT THE START OF THE PERIOD TO LIE ALONG AN AXIS FROM WRN CANADA SEWD ACROSS ND / MN INTO THE OH / TN VALLEYS. MEANWHILE...DOWNSTREAM SHORT-WAVE RIDGE SHOULD EXTEND FROM THE SERN ATLANTIC COAST NWD INTO CENTRAL PA AND THEN NWWD INTO HUDSON BAY / NERN MANITOBA. SRN PORTION OF THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO ELONGATE EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES / OH VALLEY REGION WITH TIME AS IT -- AND ASSOCIATED 70 TO 75 KT MID-LEVEL JET -- SLOWLY PINCHES OFF CANADA PORTION OF SHORT-WAVE RIDGE. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...AN ELONGATED UPPER LOW IS FORECAST FROM SRN MN EWD TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...WITH INTENSIFYING UPPER HIGH OVER NERN MANITOBA / HUDSON BAY. AT THE SURFACE...STRONG / OCCLUDED LOW IS FORECAST OVER NRN MN AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...WITH TRIPLE POINT NEAR SRN LK MI. COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO EXTEND SWWD FROM TRIPLE POINT ACROSS THE LOWER OH / MID MS VALLEYS INTO AR / NERN TX...WHILE WARM FRONT EXTENDS ESEWD FROM SRN LOWER MI ACROSS THE UPPER OH VALLEY TO THE DELMARVA PENINSULA / CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION. WITH TIME...NRN PORTION OF FRONT IS FORECAST TO SURGE EWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. AS THIS OCCURS...LOW SHOULD ELONGATE W-E ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...EXTENDING BY THE END OF THE PERIOD FROM MN TO WRN NY / SRN ONTARIO. FURTHER SOUTH...TRAILING PORTION OF THE BOUNDARY SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY W-E ORIENTED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST / GULF COAST STATES AS NRN PORTION OF BOUNDARY SURGES EWD. BY LATE IN THE PERIOD...FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM THE CAROLINAS WWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES INTO SRN / ERN TX. ...MIDDLE OH VALLEY / TN VALLEY EWD TO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION... STORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ALONG COLD FRONT / WITHIN MOIST / UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THIS REGION. STRONG / GENERALLY WLY MID-LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING RAPIDLY EWD ACROSS THIS REGION...AS WILL COLD FRONT WHICH SHOULD REMAIN THE FOCUS FOR A LINE OF SEVERE STORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON / EVENING. ALTHOUGH DOWNSTREAM DESTABILIZATION OF AIRMASS MAY BE LIMITED BY CLOUD COVER -- AS WELL AS PRECIPITATION ALONG BACKDOOR FRONT OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION...INSTABILITY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT IN CONJUNCTION WITH STRONG DYNAMICS / KINEMATICS TO SUPPORT A THREAT FOR PRIMARILY DAMAGING WINDS AS STORMS MOVE RAPIDLY EWD ACROSS THIS REGION. DURING THE EVENING...STRONGEST PORTION OF LINE SHOULD PUSH EWD OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST...WHILE POST-FRONTAL / GENERALLY NON-SEVERE STORMS MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS UPPER LOW LINGERS OVER THE AREA. ...E TX ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION... STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ALONG COLD FRONT FROM THE TN VALLEY SWWD INTO NRN LAY / E TX. THIS LINE OF STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE SEWD THROUGH MOIST / UNSTABLE AIRMASS ALONG AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR STORM REDEVELOPMENT LATER IN THE DAY ACROSS NERN TX AS ETA INDICATES WEAK WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG FRONT. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD REMAIN VEERED / SWLY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...REGION REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF MID-LEVEL JET AXIS. AS A RESULT...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE FAVORABLE FOR BOTH SUPERCELLS AS WELL AS SMALL-SCALE LINES / BOWS. ALTHOUGH FRONT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY W-E ORIENTED WITH TIME AND THUS MORE PARALLEL WITH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WHICH SHOULD PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND THREAT...LOCALLY STRONG GUSTS ALONG WITH MARGINAL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. ALTHOUGH UNCERTAIN ATTM...WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG FRONT IN NERN TX COULD RESULT IN AREA OF LOCALLY-BACKED LOW-LEVEL WINDS AND THUS SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR FOR TORNADOES. LOW CONFIDENCE EXISTS ATTM WITH THIS SCENARIO HOWEVER...WITH MAIN THREAT LIKELY TO REMAIN MARGINAL HAIL / WIND. ...MIDDLE AND UPPER MS / LOWER AND MIDDLE OH VALLEYS... AIRMASS IS FORECAST TO DESTABILIZE WITH DAYTIME HEATING BEHIND COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION...BENEATH COLD /-18 TO -20 C/ MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES SPREADING EWD TO THE SOUTH OF UPPER LOW / ALONG AND N OF MID-LEVEL JET. WITH GENERALLY 500 TO 1000 J/KG SURFACE-BASED CAPE FORECAST BY AFTERNOON AND MODERATE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...EXPECT LOW-TOPPED SEVERE STORMS / SUPERCELLS TO DEVELOP. PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE HAIL FROM MIDDAY THROUGH EARLY EVENING BEFORE STORMS WEAKEN WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ..GOSS.. 05/30/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon May 31 07:42:44 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 31 May 2004 02:42:44 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200405310742.i4V7gjj12431@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 310740 SWODY2 SPC AC 310738 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0238 AM CDT MON MAY 31 2004 VALID 011200Z - 021200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE LFT 25 SSW POE 35 S TYR 45 SW ADM 40 ESE FSI 25 SE OKC FYV 35 NNE MKL 45 SSE BNA 45 WSW CHA 15 NNW ANB 40 SW SEM 25 N GPT 25 ESE BTR 20 NE LFT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WNW DRT 20 WSW CSM 30 W END 40 W JLN 25 WNW CGI 40 NNE BWG 50 NE LEX 10 NE UNI 20 WNW MGW 25 ENE EKN 40 WSW SHD 40 W GSO 45 NNW AGS 15 SE MCN 35 SW DHN 10 ESE PNS. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE ARKLATEX...LOWER MS VALLEY AND MID MS VALLEY... ...GULF COASTAL STATES... A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING SEWD ACROSS THE OZARKS AND MID MS VALLEY WILL STALL IN THE SERN STATES ON DAY 2. LOWER TO MID 70S F SFC DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT. THE ETA AND GFS SOLUTIONS BOTH GENERATE A MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE GULF COAST TUESDAY ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE TIMING AND EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE FEATURE. BOTH MODELS GENERATE LATE MORNING CONVECTION WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE CONSIDERING THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. DAYTIME HEATING...CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES SHOULD HELP INITIATE STORMS NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS AND INLAND ACROSS LA AND MS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THIS AREA SHOW STRONG INSTABILITY (MLCAPE OF 2000 TO 3000 J/KG) WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL VEERING AND MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WHICH SHOULD PROMOTE A SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THE REGION. BOTH THE ETA AND GFS STRENGTHEN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW NEAR THE COASTAL AREAS WITH WOULD CREATE STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. THIS WOULD RESULT IN A WIND DAMAGE OR AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE EWD AND WEAKEN AS THE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SPREADS EWD AWAY FROM THE INSTABILITY AXIS DURING THE DAY. ...RED RIVER VALLEY/LOWER MS VALLEY... THE FRONT WHICH WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH TX EXTENDING EWD ACROSS THE GULF COASTAL STATES ON DAY 2...WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO LIFT NWD DURING THE DAY. BOTH THE ETA AND GFS ADVECT MID 70S F SFC DEWPOINTS NWD INTO THE ARKLATEX BY THE EVENING HOURS. AS A LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS ACROSS NORTH TX...STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. THIS WILL MAKE CONVECTIVE INITIATION LIKELY IN THE VICINITY OF THE RED RIVER AFTER DARK. BOTH THE GFS AND ETA ARE CONSISTENT DROPPING A MID-LEVEL JET (70 TO 80 KT) SEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS. THIS COMBINED WITH THE INCREASE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS DURING THE EVENING HOURS RESULTING IN SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS. ALTHOUGH THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF DEVELOPING CONVECTION IS UNCERTAIN ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR A CLUSTER OF ELEVATED STORMS WILL BE ACROSS ECNTRL OK OR NE TX ON THE NOSE OF THE MOIST TONGUE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THIS AREA SHOW MLCAPE OF 2500 TO 3000 J/KG WITH MOST OF THE INSTABILITY ABOVE 850 MB. IN ADDITION...STRONG LOW TO MID-LEVEL VEERING IS FORECAST AND THIS COMBINED WITH THE INSTABILITY AND INCREASING MID-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXCEEDING 8.0 C/KM ALONG THE RED RIVER WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP. THE CONVECTION MAY CONTINUE TO HAVE A HAIL THREAT AFTER MIDNIGHT AS IT SPREADS EWD INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION. ..BROYLES.. 05/31/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon May 31 17:25:42 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 31 May 2004 12:25:42 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200405311725.i4VHPhj03447@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 311724 SWODY2 SPC AC 311722 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1222 PM CDT MON MAY 31 2004 VALID 011200Z - 021200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM LFK 55 E ACT PRX PGO POF BWG 30 ENE BNA HSV TCL MCB POE LFK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM LAR COS SAF 10 WSW ABQ GNT GUP 4HV 10 SSE SLC WEY COD WRL LAR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE EFK PWM 10 SSE EWB ACY NHK AVL CHA LGC 10 SSE MCN 40 ENE SAV ...CONT... 10 SSE BPT CLL SAT 45 ESE JCT FTW 40 WNW ADM TUL UNO MTO SPI P35 LNK 60 SSE 9V9 ABR AXN MSP CWA 30 E PLN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ON TUESDAY FROM NORTHEAST TX...ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY...INTO THE WESTERN TN VALLEY... ...NORTHEAST TX INTO WESTERN TN VALLEY... BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND OH VALLEY ON TUESDAY...WITH BAND OF STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL WINDS EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS...ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES...AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. AT THE SURFACE...MAIN LOW WILL REMAIN OVER ONTARIO WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING INTO PARTS OF AR/MO/KY/TN BY AFTERNOON. THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. AIRMASS AHEAD OF FRONT WILL BE QUITE MOIST/UNSTABLE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S AS FAR NORTH AS WESTERN TN/NORTHEAST AR...AND MLCAPE VALUES IN THIS REGION EXCEEDING 3000 J/KG. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT STORMS WILL INTENSIFY ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON FROM NORTHERN AR INTO WESTERN KY...WITH GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT SOUTHWESTWARD DOWN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF GREATEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO NORTHEAST TX. STRONG DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL PROMOTE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION INTO SUPERCELLS AND SMALL BOWS...WITH A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL IN STRONGER CELLS. ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP SOUTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL MS AND NORTHERN AL DURING THE EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING. ...CENTRAL/EASTERN KY/TN... OTHER STRONG STORMS MAY INCREASE ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO MIDDLE/EASTERN TN AND CENTRAL/EASTERN KY. HOWEVER...LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY IN THIS REGION WILL TEND TO LESSEN RISK OF ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS. ...OH/PA/NY... FINALLY...COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES MAY POSE A RISK OF HAIL IN ISOLATED STORMS THAT FORM OVER PARTS OF WV/OH/PA/NY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE RATHER DISORGANIZED AND STRONGLY DIURNAL...WEAKENING RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET. ..HART.. 05/31/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.