From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 1 07:42:18 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 01 Jun 2004 02:42:18 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200406010742.i517gHj26506@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 010737 SWODY2 SPC AC 010735 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0235 AM CDT TUE JUN 01 2004 VALID 021200Z - 031200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E SBY 10 NNE CXY 25 NE IPT 35 NE BGM 15 ESE GFL 35 S CON 10 NNE HYA. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE PSX AUS BWD 35 NNW ABI 10 SSE CDS 15 SSW CSM 50 WNW MLC 20 E PGO 20 ENE ELD 20 NW HEZ 25 W HUM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ESE CRP 55 ESE JCT 35 ESE LBB 35 SE TCC 45 ENE LVS 35 WNW TAD 30 NNW LHX 30 NNW LBL 25 SSE P28 30 WSW UMN 15 SSW POF 20 NW LEX 30 WNW UNI 15 N FKL 30 NW BUF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 N HVR 3HT 25 NNW WEY 35 WSW SUN 55 SW BOI 50 NNE BNO 25 SE PDT 60 ENE 63S. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PARTS OF NERN U.S.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS ERN U.S. AS FLAT RIDGING DEVELOPS EWD FROM ROCKIES INTO HIGH PLAINS. MAIN PORTION OF COLD TROUGH ROTATES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WITH SRN SEGMENT ROTATING SEWD INTO SERN STATES. A RATHER COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER NERN STATES WITH MAIN CENTER REMAINING N OF ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH ETA SUGGESTING A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW/TROUGH ROTATING ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND ASSOCIATED WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL WIND MAX WHICH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS SRN ENGLAND DURING AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH MOVES EWD ACROSS NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND MAINTAINS AN E/SE FLOW VICINITY STALLED FRONTAL ZONE WHICH EXTENDS WWD ACROSS N TX. ...NERN U.S... AS COLD TROUGH MOVES EWD...LAPSE RATES STEEPEN TO IN EXCESS OF 7C/KM FROM SRN NY/ERN PA EWD ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY. IN ADDITION DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID 50S AND SFC TEMPS INTO LOW/MID 70S WILL RESULT IN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MUCAPES FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. SUFFICIENT DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEAR ON THE N SIDE OF THE MID LEVEL WIND MAX TO SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP WITH DAYTIME HEATING. GIVEN THE WEAK CAP AND WITH THE COOL MID LEVEL TEMPS AT LEAST SEVERE HAIL IS LIKELY. WITH THE 40-50 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR...THERE IS ALSO A CONCERN FOR ROTATING STORMS WHICH WOULD ENHANCE BOTH THE DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL THREAT FROM SERN NY/ERN PA EWD ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND. ...SRN PLAINS... PERSISTENT ELY/SELY FLOW N OF STALLED FRONT WILL STEADILY INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE W/WNWWD ACROSS N TX/SRN OK THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE MID/UPPER WNWLY FLOW ACROSS THIS AREA OF 30-40 KT WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORMS. VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE IN WARM SECTOR S OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY N TX WITH MUCAPES POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG. STEEP LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 8C/KM ABOVE THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH A DOMINANT LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL. STORMS SHOULD BE MOST COMMON ALONG AND ON COOL SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHERE WARM ADVECTION WILL PROVIDE LIFT. STORMS SHOULD MOVE/PROPAGATE SEWD INTO WARM SECTOR WHICH WILL MAINTAIN THREAT OF SEVERE OVER OUTLOOK AREA THRU WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ..HALES.. 06/01/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 1 17:36:33 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 01 Jun 2004 12:36:33 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200406011736.i51HaUj31723@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 011734 SWODY2 SPC AC 011732 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1232 PM CDT TUE JUN 01 2004 VALID 021200Z - 031200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM GLS JCT MAF 60 N HOB 40 W TCC RTN 25 ESE TAD 55 SSW LAA GAG FSM JBR 35 ENE MKL 25 N MSL CBM TCL MGM 15 E PNS. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ORF DCA CXY AVP 30 N POU ORH HYA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NE HVR 35 WSW 4BQ BFF 15 N GLD GCK 25 WSW JLN PAH 25 NNW JKL JHW SLK PWM ...CONT... 45 ENE CRP P07 HOB 25 WSW LVS GUC VEL OWY 70 SSW RDM DLS 45 NE 63S. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS EWD INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SRN NEW ENGLAND SWD INTO DELMARVA... ...SYNOPSIS... STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY WILL DIVE SEWD AND AMPLIFY THE LONG WAVE TROUGH IN THE ERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY. SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING TROUGH IN THE EAST. THESE FEATURES WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT EWD THAT IS FORECAST TO STRETCH FROM NEW ENGLAND/NY/PA SWWD ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO/MID MS VALLEYS...SWWD INTO SRN OK/WRN TX. ...LOWER MS VALLEY REGION... MODELS DEPICT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH...LOCATED THIS MORNING IN CO...MOVING ACROSS AR/LA WED MORNING AND AL IN THE AFTERNOON. WARM FRONT ALONG THE GULF COASTAL STATES SHOULD LIFT NWD AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AND STRETCH FROM NRN TX EWD INTO CENTRAL MS. SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER TODAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS AND AS LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS TONIGHT...STORMS SHOULD CONGEAL INTO AN MCS. STORMS SHOULD MOVE ESEWD ALONG AND NORTH OF WARM FRONT. A STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL BE PRESENT NEAR THE FRONT AND 40-50 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN A SEVERE THREAT WITH STORMS ON WEDNESDAY. SOME HAIL IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE...BUT WNWLY FLOW ALOFT AND POSSIBLE FORWARDING PROPAGATING SYSTEM SUGGESTS WIND DAMAGE SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT. ...SRN PLAINS... PERSISTENT ELY/SELY FLOW N OF STALLED FRONT WITH DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN THE AIR MASS TO BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ACROSS OK/TX PANHANDLE/NERN NM. LOW LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS LATE WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS IN THE WEST. STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF SERN CO/NERN NM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH LOW LEVEL JET SUPPORTING STORMS OVERNIGHT. ONCE STORMS DEVELOP... INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. HIGHER CLOUD BASES AND WEAKER 1 KM SHEAR INDICATE HAIL AND WIND WOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS. A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE IN WARM SECTOR S OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NRN TX WITH MLCAPES NEARING 4000 J/KG BY LATE AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN...BUT STRONG VEERING IN THE LOWER 3KM...RESULTING IN LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION...AND CONVERGENCE NEAR THE BOUNDARY MAY BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE STORMS BY LATE AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS...BUT THE VERY WARM BOUNDARY LAYER AND HIGH LCLS HEIGHTS SUGGEST THAT VERY LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT. ONCE STORMS DEVELOP...THEY SHOULD TRACK SEWD OVERNIGHT WITH A SEVERE THREAT POSSIBLY SPREADING INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/ERN TX. ...SRN NEW ENGLAND SWD INTO DEL LARVA... AIR MASS IS FORECAST TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE BY EARLY AFTERNOON DUE TO SFC-700 MB LAPSE RATES NEAR 7C/KM AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME VEERING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND SPEED SHEAR ABOVE...WHICH RESULTS IN SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR SEVERE STORMS. WITH A WEAK CAP...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MID/LATE MORNING. THE UNDIRECTIONAL FLOW AND LINEAR FORCING SUGGESTS STORMS MAY ORGANIZE INTO A LINEAR STRUCTURE...WITH WIND DAMAGE THE MAIN THREAT FROM SRN NEW ENGLAND SWD INTO THE DELMARVA REGION. ..IMY.. 06/01/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 2 07:39:48 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 02 Jun 2004 02:39:48 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200406020741.i527fSj16062@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 020737 SWODY2 SPC AC 020735 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0235 AM CDT WED JUN 02 2004 VALID 031200Z - 041200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE DAL 15 ENE ACT 50 ESE LBB 45 NW PVW 10 NNW LHX 25 NNW LIC 50 ESE CYS 45 SE AIA 40 SE LBF 50 S RSL 30 ESE P28 50 NE OKC 30 ENE DUA 40 ESE DAL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 N DVL 60 SE BIS 55 NE PIR 20 N GRI 30 SSW MHK 25 S CNU 25 SSE FYV 45 W JAN 40 ESE MEI 10 NNW MGM 35 WNW AHN 10 NW HKY 20 ENE WAL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW PSX 40 N HDO FST 35 NW LVS 20 ENE ASE 30 ENE RWL 40 N CPR 25 SW SHR 15 NE COD 35 ENE PIH 40 WNW TWF 45 SSE BNO 70 ENE BLI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... NRN PORTION OF ERN TROUGH MOVES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND DURING PERIOD WHILE WEAKER SRN PORTION DROPS SEWD FROM TN VALLEY TO SERN COAST. BROAD RIDGE OVER WRN U.S. WITH NWLY FLOW PREVAILING ACROSS THE PLAINS. COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS SERN U.S. INTO NRN FL AND THEN EXTENDING WWD JUST INLAND FROM GULF COAST. TROUGHING DEVELOPING LEE OF ROCKIES COUPLED WITH SURFACE HIGH MOVING EWD INTO GREAT LAKES WILL ALLOW SPREAD OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE NWD ACROSS HIGH PLAINS. ...CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS... NWLY FLOW PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WITH THE 20-30 KT NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW E OF WRN RIDGE COUPLED WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER SLY FLOW OF INCREASING GULF MOISTURE WILL PUT IN PLACE PARAMETERS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. STEEP LAPSE RATES OF 8-9C/KM ALONG WITH THE 40-50 KT OF SFC-6KM SHEAR AND POTENTIALLY MUCAPES FROM 1500-2000 J/KG SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS WITH STORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP OFF HIGHER TERRAIN. ADDITIONALLY THESE PARAMETERS SUGGEST CONVECTION COULD TRANSITION FROM SUPERCELLS TO FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS'S AS THEY MOVE SEWD ACROSS CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO N TX AND WRN OK. PRIMARY THREAT WOULD BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...HOWEVER ISOLATED TORNADOES WOULD BE POSSIBLE EARLY IN STORM DEVELOPMENT. ...SERN STATES... MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AHEAD OF FRONTAL SYSTEM SERN STATES COUPLED WITH UPWARD MOTION AHEAD OF S/WV TROUGH COULD RESULT IN A FEW STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FIRST 12 HOURS OF FORECAST PERIOD. ADDITIONALLY THE INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS FL WHEN COUPLED WITH SEA BREEZE FRONT CONVERGENCE WILL AID IN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SWD THRU CENTRAL FL PENINSULA. ...NRN ROCKIES,.. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK S/WV TROUGH MOVING ACROSS WRN U.S. RIDGE WILL SUPPORT HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS VICINITY NRN ROCKIES. WHILE STEERING FLOW WILL ONLY BE 25-30KT...WITH THE INVERTED VEE SOUNDING PROFILES ISOLATED SEVERE DOWNBURSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. ..HALES.. 06/02/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 2 18:00:56 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 02 Jun 2004 13:00:56 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200406021800.i52I0mj30886@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 021758 SWODY2 SPC AC 021756 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1256 PM CDT WED JUN 02 2004 VALID 031200Z - 041200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE TXK 40 WNW POE 20 S TPL 35 W PVW 30 WSW LHX 25 NNW LIC 45 W SNY 15 N AIA 10 NNE MHN 40 ENE MCK 45 S RSL 35 E OKC 25 NNE TXK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW PSX 40 N HDO FST 35 NNW ALM 20 ENE ASE 30 ENE RWL 40 N CPR 25 SW SHR 15 NE COD 35 ENE PIH 40 WNW TWF 45 SSE BNO 70 ENE BLI ...CONT... 55 N DVL 60 SE BIS 55 NE PIR 20 N GRI 30 SSW MHK 25 S CNU 25 SE FYV 40 NNE GLH 25 NW MEI 10 NNW MGM 35 WNW AHN 10 NW HKY 20 ENE WAL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E BDR 35 WNW ALB 15 WNW MSS. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS SEWD TO ARKLATEX REGION... ...SYNOPSIS... ERN PORTION OF ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY AS AN UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY MOVING SWD ALONG THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER...ROUNDS THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH. MEANWHILE...THE WRN PORTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL TRACK FROM THE TN VALLEY TO THE SERN STATES. IN THE WEST...A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY ESEWD ACROSS THE NERN PACIFIC WITH A LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH EJECTING NEWD ACROSS THE PAC NW TO NRN ROCKIES. HEIGHT RISES ACROSS MUCH OF THE ROCKIES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT WNWLY MID-UPPER FLOW FROM THE HIGH PLAINS SEWD TO THE MID/LOWER MS VALLEYS. ...CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS SEWD TO ARKLATEX REGION... AS A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS EWD ACROSS THE MS VALLEY TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY...AND A TROUGH DEVELOPS IN LEE OF THE ROCKIES BENEATH WNWLY FLOW ALOFT...LOW-LEVEL GULF MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN NWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO DAKOTAS. SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS ERN CO/WRN KS INTO NEB PANHANDLE BY 04/00Z. THE COMBINATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN BENEATH A PLUME OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SPREADING EWD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WILL RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY FROM WRN NEB SWD TO ERN NM/WRN TX. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL/ SRN HIGH PLAINS...GIVEN 25-40 KT NWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ATOP 20-25 KT SELY UPSLOPE FLOW. ONE OR TWO MCS WILL POSSIBLY BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD ACROSS PORTIONS OF OK/AR SWD TO ERN TX/LA. THIS ACTIVITY... ALTHOUGH NOT FORECAST VERY WELL BY MODEL DATA...SHOULD PROPAGATE SEWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY THURSDAY MORNING WHERE THE AIR MASS WILL BE MODERATELY UNSTABLE. HOWEVER...WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL AS THESE COMPLEXES MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY. FARTHER WNW...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL/SRN ROCKIES FROM CENTRAL-ERN NM NWD TO SERN WY. WNWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL FAVOR THESE STORMS MOVING ESEWD INTO THE INSTABILITY AXIS WITH THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS. DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS...THOUGH ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH INITIAL ACTIVITY AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONGEAL INTO ONE OR MORE FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS/S THURSDAY NIGHT AS THEY MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO WRN OK/NRN TX. ...NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/NRN ROCKIES... MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE NEWD ACROSS THE PAC NW TO NRN ROCKIES THIS PERIOD. STRONG SURFACE HEATING EXPECTED FROM ERN WA/OR EWD TO WRN MT WILL COMBINE WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES FOR AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG. HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN OR/ERN WA INTO ID WITH THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING DRY MICROBURSTS AND HAIL...GIVEN SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THIS ACTIVITY WILL THEN MOVE EWD TOWARD CENTRAL MT THURSDAY EVENING. IF AREAL COVERAGE FOR SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE GREATER IN LATER OUTLOOKS...A PORTION OF THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/NRN ROCKIES MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A SLIGHT RISK. ...CAROLINAS SWD TO FL... MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS/GA FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE 09Z ETAKF IS THE FASTEST WITH THIS FEATURE AND SUBSEQUENTLY DEVELOPS THE GREATEST CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY INLAND ACROSS THE CAROLINAS/SERN GA. NONE THE LESS...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY LATER MORNING ACROSS THE SERN STATES AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SEWD OVER THIS REGION. A SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO TRACK NEWD ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL CONVERGENCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS...BUT THE VARIABILITY IN MODEL DATA WITH AVAILABLE INSTABILITY WILL KEEP LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES ACROSS THIS AREA. GREATER CONFIDENCE FOR AVAILABLE INSTABILITY/SEVERE STORMS IN LATER OUTLOOKS WOULD WARRANT AN UPGRADE TO A SLIGHT RISK FOR PORTIONS OF THE SERN STATES. FARTHER S...INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS SWD ACROSS FL ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES...BUT WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE SEVERE COVERAGE. ..PETERS.. 06/02/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 3 07:02:50 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 03 Jun 2004 02:02:50 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200406030702.i5372fj17044@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 030700 SWODY2 SPC AC 030658 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0158 AM CDT THU JUN 03 2004 VALID 041200Z - 051200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N BVO 35 NNW PRX 15 NE DAL 45 NW ABI 35 ENE PVW 45 WNW EHA 30 NNE LIC 40 WNW BFF 15 N GDV 10 NNW BIS 10 SE HON MHK 25 N BVO. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW PNS 25 NNE DHN 40 SW CHS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNW VRB 10 NNW PIE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE DMN 55 ENE SAD 10 W GUP 10 WSW FMN 20 NW GJT 10 SSE RKS 30 W BPI 15 NW PIH 50 SSE BOI 45 SW BKE 50 NW 4OM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM RRT 50 SSW DLH 15 NNW CID 45 NNW COU 25 WSW UNO LIT 30 W GLH 15 W MEI 30 WSW 0A8 RMG 15 SSW TRI 15 NE ECG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S CRP 15 WNW COT 45 NW DRT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PLAINS STATES... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SOUTHEASTERN STATES... ...SYNOPSIS... WITH BROAD RIDGE REMAINING OVER THE WRN U.S. A NWLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE PLAINS TO THE WEAKENING TROUGH POSITION OVER THE SERN U.S. SLY FLOW TO E OF TROUGH LEE OF ROCKIES WILL CONTINUE TO FEED GULF MOISTURE NWD THRU THE PLAINS. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING MOISTURE AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL PROVIDE A LARGE AREA OF POTENTIALLY VERY UNSTABLE AIR FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE CENTRAL AND NRN PLAINS. SRN BRANCH S/WV TROUGH SLOWLY SHIFTS EWD ACROSS SERN U.S. WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINING ALONG SERN COAST WWD VICINITY FL PANHANDLE. ...PLAINS... NWLY FLOW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE ON FRIDAY AS THE SLY 20-30KT LOW LEVEL FLOW AND 30-40 KT NWLY 500MB FLOW RESULT IN VERY FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 50 KT TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL. AS DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S MOVE AS FAR N AS THE DAKOTAS...AFTERNOON MUCAPES WILL POTENTIALLY CLIMB TO ABOVE 3000 J/KG MUCH OF HIGH PLAINS. ONE OR MORE SEVERE MCS'S ARE LIKELY TO EVOLVE OUT OF SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL INITIATE VICINITY HIGH PLAINS WHERE CAP WILL BE WEAKEST. EXTENT AND LOCATION OF SEVERE WILL BE SOMEWHAT DEPENDENT ON EVOLUTION OF STORMS/MCS'S THAT FORM TODAY. HOWEVER THE POTENTIAL EXISTS AS FAR N AS ND AS MODELS DO INDICATE THE UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL REACH THAT AREA BY AFTERNOON. ...SERN U.S... WITH COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO STALL ONSHORE IN THE SERN U.S...THE MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL STILL BE AVAILABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING AFTERNOON NRN FL AND SRN GA. CYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW AROUND WEAKENING TROUGH WILL PROVIDE SHEAR AND SOME COLD AIR ALOFT FOR MAINLY MULTICELLULAR STORM DEVELOPMENT. ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE HIGHLY DIURNAL GIVEN THE WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW. ..HALES.. 06/03/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 3 17:59:13 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 03 Jun 2004 12:59:13 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200406031759.i53Hx3810131@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 031756 SWODY2 SPC AC 031754 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1254 PM CDT THU JUN 03 2004 VALID 041200Z - 051200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNE MKO 20 W LFT 30 ENE PSX 35 WSW BWD 35 ENE PVW 45 WNW EHA 30 NNE LIC 40 WNW BFF 45 WNW ISN 30 WNW GFK 10 SE HON MHK 15 NNE MKO. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E PNS 20 NE CSG 15 ENE AND 35 SW GSO 60 E DAN 10 NNE ORF ...CONT... 15 NNW VRB 10 NNW PIE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S CRP 15 WNW COT 45 NW DRT ...CONT... 20 ESE DUG 35 NE SAD 10 W GUP 10 WSW FMN 20 NW GJT 10 SSE RKS 30 W BPI 15 NW PIH 50 SSE BOI 45 SW BKE 50 NW 4OM ...CONT... 80 NW CMX 25 ESE DLH 15 SSE DBQ 50 SSW IRK 25 WSW UNO LIT 30 W GLH 15 W MEI 30 WSW 0A8 25 NNE MSL 40 NE BWG 55 ENE LUK 10 SW PIT 35 WNW CXY 15 SW JFK. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES TO SERN TX/WRN LA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SRN MID ATLANTIC AND SERN STATES... ...SYNOPSIS... BROAD RIDGE OVER THE WRN STATES WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUATION OF NWLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES INTO THE MS VALLEY ON FRIDAY. LARGE UPPER TROUGH...CURRENTLY OVER THE NERN PACIFIC/GULF OF ALASKA...IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE PAC NW BY 12Z SATURDAY. SHORT WAVE TROUGHS EJECTS FROM THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH WILL TRACK NEWD OVER THE PAC NW TOPPING THE RIDGE BEFORE MOVING SEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. IN THE EAST...UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH...NOW OVER MID MS VALLEY WILL TRACK ENEWD ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEYS. ETA/ETAKF/GFS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR FRIDAY...WITH THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER ETA PREFERRED FOR THIS FORECAST PER COORDINATION CALL WITH HPC. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NEWD INTO SC FRIDAY AFTERNOON...REACHING SERN VA BY 12Z SATURDAY WITH A WARM FRONT MOVING NWD ACROSS NC TOWARD THE DELMARVA REGION. ...PLAINS INTO SERN TX/LA... AS THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND MS RIVER VALLEY...SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL RETURN TO MUCH OF THE PLAINS WITH GULF MOISTURE MOVING NWD. A WEAK E-W FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL TX TODAY WILL TRACK NWD ACROSS NRN TX...REACHING THE TX PANHANDLE SEWD TO NERN TX BY 12Z SATURDAY. SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE DAKOTAS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH MID 60S ACROSS NEB/KS...AND NEAR 70 F DEWPOINTS CONFINED TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS NRN TX. VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SPREADING EWD ATOP THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING WILL RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS FROM NWRN TX/WRN OK INTO ERN/SERN TX. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS WITH SUPERCELLS IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS...GIVEN VEERING WIND PROFILES WITH HEIGHT /SSELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW BENEATH NWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW/. MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS THE SRN GREAT BASIN ATTM...WILL EXTEND FROM WRN OK TO ERN NM AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WITH ONGOING ELEVATED STORMS...POTENTIALLY SEVERE... ACROSS WRN OK AND PORTIONS OF THE TX PANHANDLE. THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK SEWD TOWARD SERN TX/SWRN LA WITH STORMS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP AND/OR INTENSIFY...AS THEY TRACK SEWD ALONG THE RETURNING WARM FRONT/INSTABILITY GRADIENT. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BECOME SURFACE BASED BY AFTERNOON WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS MOVING ACROSS MAINLY NRN TX INTO SERN TX/WRN LA FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. A GREATER SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED NWD ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE PLAINS STATES FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT. SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVING SEWD ACROSS THIS REGION AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL LIKELY SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM INITIATION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND LEE TROUGH ALONG THE ENTIRE EXTENT OF THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE ESEWD INTO THE STRONGER INSTABILITY AXIS WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTING SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES. IF GREATER INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY... PORTIONS OF THIS REGION MAY BE UPGRADED TO A MODERATE RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS. AS THE SLY LLJ STRENGTHENS FRIDAY EVENING...ONE OR MORE FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS/S SHOULD DEVELOP FROM THE DAKOTAS SWD TO OK/NRN TX WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS. ...SRN MID ATLANTIC AND SERN STATES... A SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO TRACK NEWD ACROSS SC FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO SERN VA BY 12Z SATURDAY. TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE SERN STATES. WARM SECTOR IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE BY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CAROLINAS INTO FL...DESPITE MORNING CLOUDINESS/SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NEWD IN ADVANCE OF THIS STORM SYSTEM. MODELS SUGGEST A DRY AIR INTRUSION WILL MOVE ACROSS GA INTO SC FRIDAY AFTERNOON RESULTING IN STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE LOW/WARM FRONT. SUFFICIENT CAPE/SHEAR PARAMETERS SUPPORT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES MAINLY ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TOWARD FAR SERN VA...WITH ATTENDANT TORNADOES POSSIBLE. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COLD FRONT...BUT WEAKER DEEP LAYER SHEAR WOULD SUGGEST A LOWER THREAT SWD INTO FL. ..PETERS.. 06/03/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 4 07:52:26 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 04 Jun 2004 02:52:26 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200406040752.i547qE829360@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 040748 SWODY2 SPC AC 040746 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0246 AM CDT FRI JUN 04 2004 VALID 051200Z - 061200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ANJ 20 SSE TVC 35 NNW CGX 35 SSW STL 40 SSE PRX 10 SSE FTW 60 NW ABI 10 NNW TCC 10 SSW TAD 15 W LHX 15 W GCK GRI 15 N STC 15 ENE INL. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NW ISN 30 N 4BQ 40 NNW SHR BZN 60 N BOI 50 SE ALW 65 ENE 63S. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE TLH 50 ENE MCN 10 NNE RDU 30 NNE LYH 45 ESE PKB 15 SSE JHW 25 SSE PSM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSE PSX 15 NNE SAT 10 W DRT ...CONT... 40 E DUG 45 W TCS 20 S ABQ 50 WSW ALS 25 ESE ASE 25 WSW FCL 15 SW GCC WEY 45 ENE SUN 30 SW BOI 10 W BNO 15 WNW DLS 15 E SEA 45 ENE BLI ...CONT... 90 NW MOT 10 ESE RAP 35 ESE CDR 25 SSW MHN 20 NW BUB 15 WSW FAR 55 WNW RRT ...CONT... 20 SE APN 20 ESE SBN CMI 25 W MEM 35 W JAN 30 S GPT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE NRN/WRN GREAT LAKES... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE NRN ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... MID TO UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN QUITE PROGRESSIVE SATURDAY AS OVERALL PATTERN EVOLVES INTO TROUGHS OVER THE PAC NW AND NORTHEAST WITH LARGE RIDGE IN BETWEEN. FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE NOW MOVING ACROSS THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION WILL PHASE WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA AND BECOME A BROADER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW NOW OVER THE OH/TN VALLEYS WILL LIFT STEADILY NEWD DURING THE DAY AS IT IS INFLUENCED BY DEEPENING TROUGH INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF STRONG UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX OVERSPREADING THE PAC NW. ...CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS... APPEARS MOST ACTIVE REGION FOR VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL OCCUR FROM THE HIGH PLAINS OF SWRN KS/NERN NM/OK-TX PANHANDLES INTO THE MID MO RIVER VALLEY...ALONG ERN PERIPHERY OF STEEP LAPSE RATE PLUME. THIS REGION WILL ALSO BECOME VERY MOIST IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AS UPPER 60F TO LOWER 70F SURFACE DEW POINTS RETURN AHEAD OF COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. MLCAPES WILL APPROACH OR EXCEED 2000 J/KG INTO OK/CENTRAL KS...THOUGH EXACT LOCATION OF INSTABILITY MAXIMA AND SURFACE FEATURES WILL BE INFLUENCED BY MCS ACTIVITY EARLY IN THE PERIOD. REGARDLESS...EXPECT SUFFICIENT HEATING AND MOISTURE TO BE IN PLACE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE WELL INTO THE EVENING...AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND FRONTAL CONVERGENCE OVERCOME CAPPING. SSWLY H85 WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD OUT OF THE SRN PLAINS UNDER A MODEST NWLY MID LEVEL JET /H5 WINDS FROM 35-45 KT/...SUPPORTING A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR. AS IS TYPICAL IN NW FLOW SITUATIONS... EXPECT INITIAL DEVELOPMENT WILL BE SUPERCELLULAR WITH GRADUAL EVOLUTION INTO ONE OR MORE MCSS SHIFTING ESEWD AFTER DARK. ...NRN MS RIVER VALLEY INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES... LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL BECOME QUITE STRONG DURING THE PERIOD ACROSS THIS REGION AS DEEPENING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SHIFT EWD. MODELS FORECAST 60+F SURFACE DEW POINTS EXTENDING INTO THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT... WHICH WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR MODERATE INSTABILITY BY THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. SHEAR IS ALSO FORECAST TO BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS AND SMALL LINES/BOW ECHOES AS STORMS DEVELOP AND SHIFT QUICKLY EWD INTO THE WRN/NRN GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE EVENING. ...NRN ROCKIES INTO ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS... STRONG WSWLY MID/UPPER LEVEL JET WILL NOSE ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES FRIDAY...WHILE SURFACE COLD FRONT SHIFTS EWD INTO ERN ID AND WRN MT. SURFACE DEW POINTS SHOULD BE WELL IN THE 50S ACROSS CENTRAL MT AND POSSIBLY FARTHER WEST...SUGGESTING AIR MASS WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH. LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND CONVERGENCE/UPSLOPE FLOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD INITIATE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH A THREAT OF SUPERCELLS AND LINEAR ORGANIZATION AS ACTIVITY SPREADS EWD ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN MT DURING THE EVENING. ..EVANS.. 06/04/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 4 17:44:13 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 04 Jun 2004 12:44:13 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200406041744.i54Hi0828835@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 041741 SWODY2 SPC AC 041740 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1240 PM CDT FRI JUN 04 2004 VALID 051200Z - 061200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE ANJ 40 SSW HTL 55 NW LAF 50 NW CGI 40 SSE PRX 10 SSE FTW 60 NW ABI 25 NNW TCC 20 SSW TAD 25 W LHX 25 ESE LAA 30 NW GCK 40 WSW OFK 15 N STC 15 ENE INL. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NNW ISN 30 N 4BQ 40 NNW SHR BZN 60 N BOI 50 SE ALW 65 ENE 63S. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE TLH 50 ENE MCN 10 NNE RDU 30 NNE LYH 45 ESE PKB 15 SSE JHW 25 SSE PSM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSE PSX 15 NNE SAT 10 W DRT ...CONT... 40 E DUG 45 W TCS 20 S ABQ 50 WSW ALS 25 ESE ASE 25 WSW FCL 15 SW GCC WEY 45 ENE SUN 30 SW BOI 10 W BNO 15 WNW DLS 15 E SEA 45 ENE BLI ...CONT... 75 NW MOT 10 ESE RAP 35 ESE CDR 25 SSW MHN 20 NW BUB 15 WSW FAR 55 WNW RRT ...CONT... 20 SE APN 10 NNE JXN 15 WNW HUF 20 W MEM 35 W JAN 30 S GPT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO THE NRN/WRN GREAT LAKES... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE NRN ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE U.S. ON SATURDAY WITH NWLY FLOW PERSISTING OVER THE CENTRAL STATES. A STRONG PACIFIC TROUGH WILL MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW THIS PERIOD. MEANWHILE...THE UPPER TROUGH...CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL/ SRN APPALACHIANS WILL DEAMPLIFY AS IT TRACKS TOWARD SRN NEW ENGLAND. ...CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS... ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS TO MID/LOWER MO VALLEY...WITH A SECOND AREA ACROSS THE NRN MS VALLEY EWD TO THE WRN/NRN GREAT LAKES. MODELS INDICATE SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS ON SATURDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT TRACKING EAST AND SOUTH ACROSS THE NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER/MID MS VALLEY TO GREAT LAKES REGION. SSWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO THE EAST OF THE COLD FRONT WILL ADVECT MOISTURE N AND NEWD...WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS FROM SWRN IA TO THE OK/TX PANHANDLES AND OK IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. PLUME OF VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL BE OVER THIS REGION ON SATURDAY CONTRIBUTING TO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. CLUSTERS OF STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS WITH THIS ACTIVITY WEAKENING IN THE MORNING. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH ONE OR TWO SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVING SEWD WITHIN THE NW FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BREAK THE CAP...WITH ACTIVITY INITIALLY DEVELOPING BY EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS NEB AND THEN SWWD ALONG THE FRONT INTO KS AND THE OK/TX PANHANDLES. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. AS THE SSWLY LLJ INCREASES OVER THE SRN PLAINS...STORMS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE INTO ONE OR MORE MCS/S WITH A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. ...NRN MS RIVER VALLEY INTO THE NRN/WRN GREAT LAKES... A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING SEWD ACROSS MN WILL BE AMPLIFIED BY A CENTRAL CANADA TROUGH MOVING TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. SSWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL ADVECT LOWER-MID 60S SURFACE DEWPOINTS INTO THE NRN MS VALLEY/WRN GREAT LAKES... CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE INSTABILITY EXTENDING FROM IA NEWD ACROSS ERN MN/WI. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AND WILL LIKELY RE-INTENSIFY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS...WITH STORMS EVOLVING INTO A SQUALL AS ACTIVITY MOVES EWD ACROSS THE WRN/NRN GREAT LAKES SATURDAY EVENING. ...NRN ROCKIES INTO ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS... SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER 40N 137W PER WV IMAGERY...WILL TRACK NEWD ACROSS ID BY 06/00Z AND TO THE HIGH PLAINS OF MT BY 12Z SUNDAY...AS A LARGE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INLAND ACROSS THE PAC NW. A SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEAD SHORT WAVE WILL TRACK EWD ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN ID BY 00Z...AND THEN EWD OVER MT SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT. UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE DIVERGENT THROUGH THE PERIOD INCREASING THE LARGE SCALE ASCENT FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE ALREADY IN THE 50S ACROSS ERN WA/ORE INTO CENTRAL/NRN ID...WITH THESE SAME VALUES EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS MT ON SATURDAY. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES SHOULD RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE/UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE MAXIMIZED BENEATH INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT ALOFT WITH THE TROUGH. 50 KT OF SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND LINEAR ORGANIZATION AS ACTIVITY SPREADS EWD ACROSS CENTRAL-ERN MT DURING THE EVENING. ...COASTAL REGIONS OF MID-SRN ATLANTIC STATES SWD TO FL... SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO BE OVER VA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING SWWD TO THE FL PANHANDLE WILL MOVE SLOWLY ESEWD TOWARD THE COAST. THIS SLOW MOVEMENT IS DUE TO THE WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE BOUNDARY BECOMING PARALLEL TO MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW. AIR MASS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT FROM FL NWD TO VA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOIST AND UNSTABLE. HOWEVER...RATHER WEAK UPPER FORCING AND WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. HOWEVER...GIVEN MODERATE INSTABILITY AND SOME CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND SEA/LAKE BREEZES...STORMS SHOULD FORM DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. ..PETERS.. 06/04/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 5 07:38:40 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 05 Jun 2004 02:38:40 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200406050738.i557cQ832754@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 050735 SWODY2 SPC AC 050733 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0233 AM CDT SAT JUN 05 2004 VALID 061200Z - 071200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WNW RRT 60 W AXN 35 NNW PIR 50 SE RAP 45 SSE GCC 20 S 3HT 20 NNE HVR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ENE INL 30 SSE BRD 15 E RWF 30 ESE FSD 55 WNW OFK 25 WSW EAR 30 NW RSL 15 ENE P28 35 NNW BVO 20 E MKC 35 ENE DSM 50 SSE RST 10 WNW AUW 25 NNW ANJ ...CONT... 25 WNW PBG 10 SE SYR 30 S DUJ 35 NNW CRW 10 WSW 5I3 25 SSW BLF 10 W SHD 15 W BWI 40 NE SBY ...CONT... 20 ESE BPT 60 SSW CLL 60 NW LRD ...CONT... 65 WNW MRF 15 N GDP 15 W DGW 20 SE WRL 35 SE JAC 25 WSW BNO 45 NW DLS 40 ENE BLI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CENTRAL MT ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS... ...NRN PLAINS... UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE PAC NW SUNDAY WITH ASSOCIATED WLY MID/UPPER LEVEL JET EXTENDING FROM ORE ACROSS MUCH OF MT AND ND. SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO EJECT AWAY FROM MAIN CIRCULATION AND ENHANCE LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE ENEWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD AND FOCUS STRONG SLY LLJ OVER THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS AFTER DARK. THE LLJ WILL BECOME MORE SWLY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND NOSE ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY. SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL LIKELY BE WELL IN THE 50S ACROSS THE WRN DAKOTAS AND ERN MT DURING THE AFTERNOON...DESPITE DIURNAL MIXING...DUE TO STRONG CAPPING OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS. HOWEVER...LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN QUITE STEEP AND WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY OVER MUCH OF THE REGION BY LATE IN THE DAY. ATTM...EXPECT CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND BECOME SEVERE BY THE MID AFTERNOON OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND NEAR DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL MT. THESE STORMS WILL DEVELOP WITHIN STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS...WITH ACTIVITY LIKELY BECOMING INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED/SEVERE AS STORMS SPREAD INTO MODERATE INSTABILITY OVER ERN MT THROUGH THE EARLY/MID EVENING. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF ACTIVITY WERE TO ORGANIZE INTO ONE OR TWO BOW ECHO CLUSTERS WITH AN INCREASED THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS INTO ERN MT/WRN ND. STORMS MAY BECOME INCREASINGLY ELEVATED INTO THE DAKOTAS LATER SUNDAY NIGHT...THOUGH FEED OF STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL TO MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL MAINTAIN A THREAT OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY AFTER 06Z. ...MID MS RIVER INTO OH RIVER VALLEY... SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BECOME SEPARATED FROM MAIN BRANCH OF WLYS AND MEANDER ACROSS THE MID MS/LOWER OH RIVER VALLEYS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WEAK SURFACE FRONT/TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO REMAIN ALONG A NE-SW ORIENTATION DURING THE DAY...AND COMBINE WITH MID LEVEL TROUGH TO FOCUS RENEWED CONVECTIVE GROWTH DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THIS REGION. AREA WILL REMAIN ALONG NERN EXTENT OF RICH GULF MOISTURE/MODERATE INSTABILITY AXIS WHICH WILL ENHANCE UPDRAFT STRENGTHS...DESPITE THE WEAK LOW AND DEEP TROPOSPHERIC SHEAR. ISOLATED/BRIEF SEVERE MAY ACCOMPANY ACTIVITY SPREADING EWD ACROSS THE OH RIVER VALLEY DURING THE EVENING. ..EVANS.. 06/05/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 5 17:38:58 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 05 Jun 2004 12:38:58 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200406051740.i55He4815899@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 051737 SWODY2 SPC AC 051734 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1234 PM CDT SAT JUN 05 2004 VALID 061200Z - 071200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 N GFK GFK JMS Y22 4BQ BIL LWT 80 NW GGW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DUJ AOO HGR CHO SSU LOZ BWG EVV IND FDY CAK DUJ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W RRT 30 SSE TVF 10 ESE AXN 10 ESE FRM 40 SSW FOD OMA FNB CNK HUT CNU SZL IRK MSN MTW 55 WNW ANJ ...CONT... 20 SSE ELP 4SL ALS 40 SSE LIC BFF 10 SE 81V 50 WSW GCC MQM BOI BNO 70 ENE RDM PDT PUW 55 NE 63S. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SUNDAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS.... SUBTROPICAL RIDGING APPEARS LIKELY TO PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU/ROCKIES AT LEAST ONE MORE DAY...BUT MODELS SUGGEST UPPER LOW/TROUGH...NOW OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC...WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING SOUTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN STATES THIS FORECAST PERIOD. EXIT REGION OF INITIAL STRONG...BROADLY CYCLONIC MID/UPPER JET IS ALREADY BEGINNING TO NOSE INTO THE NORTHERN PACIFIC COAST...AND JET CORE IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION/NORTHERN ROCKIES LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. SPLIT BELTS OF MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES WILL PERSIST DOWNSTREAM... EAST OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE ATLANTIC COAST. PAIR OF EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES ARE CURRENTLY IN PHASE IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. HOWEVER... NORTHERN BRANCH TROUGH IS PROGGED TO BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE... ADVANCING ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...WHILE TROUGH IN WEAKER SOUTHERN BRANCH SLOWLY SHIFTS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ...ROCKIES INTO PLAINS... AS CORE OF INITIAL JET STREAK PROPAGATES INTO THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND ROCKIES SUNDAY...EXIT REGION WILL NOSE EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTH CENTRAL U.S./CANADIAN BORDER. STRONG MID-LEVEL WARMING IS PROGGED TO OCCUR ALONG/SOUTH OF JET AXIS...WITH ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ADVECTING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PLAINS. WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE STILL CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG/SOUTH OF SOUTHERN BRANCH JET...STRONG MID-LEVEL INHIBITION LIKELY WILL SUPPRESS DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH PRIMARY SURFACE CYCLONE FORMING IN THE LEE OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES...SIGNIFICANT LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL U.S. APPEARS LIKELY TO BE CONFINED TO VICINITY OF THERMAL LOW... BENEATH CAPPED ENVIRONMENT ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING/WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. WHILE THIS COMPLICATES FORECAST...IT APPEARS MOISTURE CURRENTLY IN PLACE...WITH STRONG HEATING...WILL BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDERSTORMS NEAR UPPER JET AXIS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN/ EASTERN MONTANA BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY SHOULD INITIATE NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BEFORE SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD IN ENVIRONMENT WITH DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER SUPPORTIVE OF DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS. ALTHOUGH CAPE WILL BE RELATIVE WEAK...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES APPEAR LIKELY TO BE SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IN FAVORABLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FARTHER DOWNSTREAM... ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. FORCING FOR ACTIVITY IS MORE UNCERTAIN...BUT WEAKER CAPPING...AND STRONGER WARM ADVECTION NORTH OF MID-LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT IS PROGGED BENEATH DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW REGIME BY SUNDAY EVENING. ...GREAT LAKES... WHILE STRONGER MID/UPPER FORCING AHEAD OF NORTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT INTO ONTARIO/QUEBEC EARLY IN THE DAY... STRONGER BELT OF LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND ASSOCIATED CONFLUENT BAND IS PROGGED TO LAG BEHIND OVER LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS. GIVEN LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL FOR VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS ACROSS THIS REGION. HOWEVER... SHEAR PROFILES WILL REMAIN ENHANCED ON SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF MODERATE CYCLONIC MID/UPPER JET...PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN...WHERE AN ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORM WILL BE POSSIBLE. ...SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.. WEAK SOUTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE AROUND SUBTROPICAL RIDGE INTO BROAD TROUGH OVER THE GULF STATES. THOUGH FLOW FIELDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY WEAK...CAPE ASSOCIATED WITH MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IN PLACE ACROSS REGION WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG UPDRAFTS WITH HEAVY RAIN...PERHAPS SOME HAIL. WITH FORCING/INSTABILITY SUFFICIENT FOR ONE OR MORE SMALL CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS...POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS ALONG OUTFLOWS APPEARS PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT...HOWEVER. ..KERR.. 06/05/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 5 17:38:58 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 05 Jun 2004 12:38:58 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200406051741.i55Hf6816432@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 051737 SWODY2 SPC AC 051734 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1234 PM CDT SAT JUN 05 2004 VALID 061200Z - 071200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 N GFK GFK JMS Y22 4BQ BIL LWT 80 NW GGW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DUJ AOO HGR CHO SSU LOZ BWG EVV IND FDY CAK DUJ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W RRT 30 SSE TVF 10 ESE AXN 10 ESE FRM 40 SSW FOD OMA FNB CNK HUT CNU SZL IRK MSN MTW 55 WNW ANJ ...CONT... 20 SSE ELP 4SL ALS 40 SSE LIC BFF 10 SE 81V 50 WSW GCC MQM BOI BNO 70 ENE RDM PDT PUW 55 NE 63S. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SUNDAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS.... SUBTROPICAL RIDGING APPEARS LIKELY TO PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU/ROCKIES AT LEAST ONE MORE DAY...BUT MODELS SUGGEST UPPER LOW/TROUGH...NOW OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC...WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING SOUTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN STATES THIS FORECAST PERIOD. EXIT REGION OF INITIAL STRONG...BROADLY CYCLONIC MID/UPPER JET IS ALREADY BEGINNING TO NOSE INTO THE NORTHERN PACIFIC COAST...AND JET CORE IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION/NORTHERN ROCKIES LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. SPLIT BELTS OF MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES WILL PERSIST DOWNSTREAM... EAST OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE ATLANTIC COAST. PAIR OF EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES ARE CURRENTLY IN PHASE IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. HOWEVER... NORTHERN BRANCH TROUGH IS PROGGED TO BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE... ADVANCING ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...WHILE TROUGH IN WEAKER SOUTHERN BRANCH SLOWLY SHIFTS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ...ROCKIES INTO PLAINS... AS CORE OF INITIAL JET STREAK PROPAGATES INTO THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND ROCKIES SUNDAY...EXIT REGION WILL NOSE EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTH CENTRAL U.S./CANADIAN BORDER. STRONG MID-LEVEL WARMING IS PROGGED TO OCCUR ALONG/SOUTH OF JET AXIS...WITH ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ADVECTING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PLAINS. WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE STILL CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG/SOUTH OF SOUTHERN BRANCH JET...STRONG MID-LEVEL INHIBITION LIKELY WILL SUPPRESS DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH PRIMARY SURFACE CYCLONE FORMING IN THE LEE OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES...SIGNIFICANT LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL U.S. APPEARS LIKELY TO BE CONFINED TO VICINITY OF THERMAL LOW... BENEATH CAPPED ENVIRONMENT ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING/WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. WHILE THIS COMPLICATES FORECAST...IT APPEARS MOISTURE CURRENTLY IN PLACE...WITH STRONG HEATING...WILL BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDERSTORMS NEAR UPPER JET AXIS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN/ EASTERN MONTANA BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY SHOULD INITIATE NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BEFORE SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD IN ENVIRONMENT WITH DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER SUPPORTIVE OF DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS. ALTHOUGH CAPE WILL BE RELATIVE WEAK...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES APPEAR LIKELY TO BE SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IN FAVORABLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FARTHER DOWNSTREAM... ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. FORCING FOR ACTIVITY IS MORE UNCERTAIN...BUT WEAKER CAPPING...AND STRONGER WARM ADVECTION NORTH OF MID-LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT IS PROGGED BENEATH DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW REGIME BY SUNDAY EVENING. ...GREAT LAKES... WHILE STRONGER MID/UPPER FORCING AHEAD OF NORTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT INTO ONTARIO/QUEBEC EARLY IN THE DAY... STRONGER BELT OF LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND ASSOCIATED CONFLUENT BAND IS PROGGED TO LAG BEHIND OVER LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS. GIVEN LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL FOR VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS ACROSS THIS REGION. HOWEVER... SHEAR PROFILES WILL REMAIN ENHANCED ON SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF MODERATE CYCLONIC MID/UPPER JET...PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN...WHERE AN ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORM WILL BE POSSIBLE. ...SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.. WEAK SOUTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE AROUND SUBTROPICAL RIDGE INTO BROAD TROUGH OVER THE GULF STATES. THOUGH FLOW FIELDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY WEAK...CAPE ASSOCIATED WITH MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IN PLACE ACROSS REGION WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG UPDRAFTS WITH HEAVY RAIN...PERHAPS SOME HAIL. WITH FORCING/INSTABILITY SUFFICIENT FOR ONE OR MORE SMALL CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS...POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS ALONG OUTFLOWS APPEARS PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT...HOWEVER. ..KERR.. 06/05/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 6 07:26:11 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 06 Jun 2004 02:26:11 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200406060725.i567Pr819273@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 060723 SWODY2 SPC AC 060721 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0221 AM CDT SUN JUN 06 2004 VALID 071200Z - 081200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ENE MQT 30 SSE LSE VTN 45 E DGW 45 S 81V 35 NE 81V 50 NNW ABR 30 SE RRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 WNW MRF 35 SW ROW 35 WNW TCC 35 S LHX 40 ESE LIC 20 WNW SNY 10 N DGW 15 SSW GCC 40 E 4BQ 20 SSE DVL 50 WNW RRT ...CONT... 160 E APN MKE 30 ESE ALO 25 W SUX BUB 55 WSW HLC 50 E DHT 45 ENE HOB 40 SSW P07. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WSW PNS 35 NW LUL 40 ENE ELD 50 SE HRO 35 WSW STL 30 SW HUF 20 WSW HTS 45 NNE SHD 20 E SBY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NNE GGW 30 ESE HLN 65 NNE BOI 35 NE LMT 25 SSE EUG 30 S OLM 20 NE BLI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE NRN PLAINS AND NRN MS RIVER VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE DIGGING SWD ALONG THE ORE AND NRN CA COAST MONDAY...WITH EJECTING UPPER LOW SHEARING EWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AS IT LIFTS ENEWD INTO CENTRAL MANITOBA. OTHERWISE...RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER MUCH OF THE SRN AND ERN STATES. AXIS OF RICH GULF MOISTURE WILL LIKELY EXTEND WELL INTO THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY BY THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO SHIFT SWD BEFORE STALLING FROM NERN MN INTO SWRN SD. ...NRN PLAINS INTO THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY... EXPECT ORGANIZED AND POTENTIALLY SEVERE MCS WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS NRN MN EARLY IN THE PERIOD. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AND/OR LIFT NEWD INTO ONTARIO DURING THE MORNING. VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S WILL SUPPLY STRONG INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY SURFACE FRONT AND OUTFLOW FROM MORNING STORMS BY THE MID AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THESE LAPSE RATES WILL ALSO PROVIDE A SUBSTANTIAL CAP ALONG THE FRONT. COMBINATION OF SURFACE HEATING AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAY OVERCOME CAP AND SUPPORT VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE DAY INTO MN/WI ALONG NERN PERIPHERY OF STRONGER CAPPING. FORECAST SHEAR PROFILES WILL REMAIN MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR SUPERCELLS...WITH ATTENDANT THREATS OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES SHOULD CAP BREAK. ISOLATED SURFACE BASED DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR ALONG WRN PORTION OF THE FRONT AND NEAR TRIPLE POINT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF WRN SD/FAR ERN WY/WRN NEB WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW AND STRONG MIXING MAY OVERCOME CAP. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WOULD ACCOMPANY STORMS OVER THIS REGION SHOULD THEY FORM LATE IN THE DAY AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING. EVEN IF SURFACE-BASED STORMS FAIL TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON...SLY LLJ IS FORECAST TO INCREASE DURING THE LATE EVENING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY. LOW LEVEL WAA WILL LIKELY SUPPORT ONE OR TWO MCSS OVER SD INTO THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY AFTER DARK...EITHER FROM NEW DEVELOPMENT OR THROUGH EVOLUTION OF DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MAINTAIN A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD FROM PORTIONS OF SD INTO THE NWRN GREAT LAKES REGION. ...SOUTHEAST... RELATIVELY COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS THIS REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON. THOUGH LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL BE LACKING...SURFACE CONVERGENCE FROM SEA BREEZES AND RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SHOULD THEREFORE FOCUS STRONG TO SEVERE PULSE-TYPE THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EARLY EVENING. ...CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS... FLOW WILL SLACKEN CONSIDERABLY ACROSS THIS REGION MONDAY...THOUGH VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL OVERSPREAD WRN EDGE OF LOW LEVEL MOIST AXIS. STRONG HEATING MAY MIX THROUGH CAP AND ALLOW ISOLATED OR CLUSTER CONVECTION TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY AND PERSIST INTO THE EVENING...WITH ATTENDANT THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ..EVANS.. 06/06/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 6 17:40:44 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 06 Jun 2004 12:40:44 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200406061740.i56HeP804934@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 061739 SWODY2 SPC AC 061737 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1237 PM CDT SUN JUN 06 2004 VALID 071200Z - 081200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE ANJ ESC GRB MSN ALO FOD 35 N SUX YKN VTN CDR RAP 35 NNW PHP 40 WNW ABR GFK 20 WNW RRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNE MTC MBS 25 NNW MKG RFD OMA OFK ANW MHN MCK 30 NW GLD LAR CPR GCC DIK 55 N MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ENE HVR HVR MSO S80 65 ENE 4LW MHS 35 NNE 4BK PDX 15 ENE BLI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SE ELP ALM LVS LAA 20 ENE EHA CVS INK 40 SE P07. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MFE HDO JCT FSI PNC CNU IRK BMI 15 S HTS SSU AOO IPT 15 NNW JHW ...CONT... 15 WNW MSS RUT 15 S PSM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.... SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS/JET STREAKS COMPRISING BROADER SCALE NORTHEAST PACIFIC CIRCULATION WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS INLAND TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. MOST SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE AND STRONGER JET CORE APPEARS TO BE TURNING EASTWARD INLAND ACROSS OREGON EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS SUGGEST THIS FEATURE WILL ACCELERATE EAST NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL U.S./CANADIAN BORDER BY EARLY MONDAY...BEFORE CONTINUING ACROSS ONTARIO THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MEANWHILE...UPSTREAM...ANOTHER JET STREAK IS PROGGED TO DIG SOUTHWARD OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST...WITH ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER CIRCULATION SHIFTING SOUTHWARD NEAR IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS. AHEAD OF DEVELOPING PACIFIC COAST TROUGH...MID/ UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE REST OF THE NATION WILL REMAIN RATHER WEAK... BUT WILL TAKE ON INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT. ...NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... IN RESPONSE TO EVOLVING UPPER FLOW PATTERN...VERY WARM AIR MASS IS IN THE PROCESS OF ADVECTING OFF THE PLATEAU AND ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS. THUS...WHILE RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS AROUND 70F...BEGINS TO ADVECT NORTHWARD AROUND WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC RIDGE...DEEPENING MOIST BOUNDARY WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY CAPPED FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/ BY 12Z MONDAY MORNING...MID-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE WITH 700 MB TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM +12C TO +18C IS PROGGED TO EXTEND FROM EASTERN COLORADO INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA. STRONGER LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE RAPIDLY SHIFTING INTO WESTERN ONTARIO BY THIS TIME...BUT BAND OF CONVECTION BASED ABOVE CAPPING INVERSION MAY EXTEND SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CAPE FOR PARCELS FORCED TO LEVEL OF FREE CONVECTION ABOVE 700 MB AS HIGH AS 1000 J/KG. THIS WILL SUPPORT THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL IN STRONGER CELLS...AS ACTIVITY SHIFTS TOWARD THE ARROWHEAD...AND POSSIBLE DEVELOPS SOUTHWARD TOWARD AREAS NORTH OF MINNEAPOLIS THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY. INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON...IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO UPPER JET AXIS...JUST SOUTHEAST OF PRIMARY SURFACE CYCLONE...MODELS SUGGEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AND SURFACE HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO POTENTIAL MODERATE SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD. WITH 100 MB MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE APPROACHING 2000 J/KG...AND SUFFICIENT MID-LEVEL LIFT TO MAINTAIN WEAKER CAPPING...ISOLATED SUPERCELLS APPEAR POSSIBLE. STRONGEST STORMS MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES AS WELL. MODELS SUGGEST LOW/MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL BECOME REFOCUSED ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN BY MONDAY EVENING...NEAR SOUTHERN FRINGE OF UPPER JET...ON NOSE OF THERMAL RIDGE EXTENDING OUT OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. SHEAR PROFILES ALONG 40 TO 50 KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. THOUGH SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ABOUT TIMING OF ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...WHICH MAY BE MOSTLY AFTER ONSET OF SURFACE COOLING...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 2000 TO 3000 J/KG...SUPPORTIVE OF VERY LARGE HAIL WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A LINGERING RISK OF TORNADOES INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS. ...HIGH PLAINS... CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY TO BE LIMITED TO IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF HIGHER TERRAIN...WHERE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES CAN BE REACHED. WITH ANY ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS...VERY DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF MICRO BURSTS. ...EAST TEXAS INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES... RELATIVELY WEAK INHIBITION AND SEASONABLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD ALLOW SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITH DAYTIME HEATING ACROSS INLAND AREAS AND ALONG SEA BREEZES. MID/UPPER IMPULSES ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANT SOUTHERN BRANCH JET/DECAYED CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS MAY SUPPORT SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF STORMS. ..KERR.. 06/06/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 7 07:09:43 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 07 Jun 2004 02:09:43 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200406070709.i5779N805327@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 070707 SWODY2 SPC AC 070705 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0205 AM CDT MON JUN 07 2004 VALID 081200Z - 091200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NE APN 15 SSE MTW 15 NE DBQ 35 NW DSM BUB 20 WNW MCK 40 SSW IML 50 ENE FCL 45 WNW BFF 45 SSW RAP 30 SSW ATY 30 ENE STC 60 NNE CMX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 W MRF 35 WNW CNM 30 E ROW 40 N HOB 25 NW MAF 10 SSW P07. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSE HUL 45 WSW ALB 25 E BFD 15 S CLE 30 SSE CGX 40 NW IRK 25 WNW BIE 30 SSE MCK 25 WSW EHA 25 E RTN 20 W DEN 35 NNE RWL 25 NNE BPI 45 SW OWY 25 SE RNO 30 WSW SAC 55 SW UKI ...CONT... 25 SSW AST 50 SE SEA 25 SW GEG 35 N SHR 30 WSW REJ 55 N ATY 55 ENE ELO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE CEW 35 SW HSV 30 SW MKL 65 SW MEM 40 ESE 7R4 ...CONT... 60 W MFE 35 E JCT 35 ENE FSI 30 SE CNU 15 WSW BMG 15 NNE UNI 10 NE EKN 50 SW RIC 45 E RWI 35 ESE EWN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE DIGGING SLOWLY SWD ALONG THE ORE/NRN CA COAST TUESDAY...WITH BROAD/FLAT RIDGE PERSISTING DOWNSTREAM OVER THE NRN PLAINS AND NRN GREAT LAKES. A SERIES OF SUBTLE DISTURBANCES WILL REMAIN TRAPPED WITHIN WEAK FLOW REGIME OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES...AND SUSTAIN CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION ACROSS THESE AREAS. ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES... PRIMARY FOCUS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ALONG SURFACE COLD FRONT SHIFTING SLOWLY SWD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND SEWD INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY. NOCTURNAL MCS WILL LIKELY DIMINISH DURING THE MORNING OVER NRN NEB/SERN SD INTO MN... THOUGH A THREAT OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS EARLY IN THE DAY. A VERY WARM AND MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIKELY REMAIN CAPPED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY INTO THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY/GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER BY LATE IN THE DAY...CONVERGENCE INVOF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES/SURFACE FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT VIGOROUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM THE MID MO RIVER VALLEY ENEWD INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES. COMBINATION OF CAPE AND SHEAR APPEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS AND MULTICELL CLUSTERS...WITH ACTIVITY LIKELY ORGANIZING INTO ONE OR MORE SEVERE MCSS SHIFTING EWD INTO NRN IA AND THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT. FARTHER SW...COMBINATION OF UPSLOPE FLOW AND SURFACE HEATING MAY ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS OF NERN CO/SERN WY/WRN NEB. VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODEST SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE HAIL/WIND...AND POSSIBLY A SUPERCELLULAR TORNADO...AS THESE STORMS DEVELOP AND SPREAD ENEWD THROUGH THE EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL ALSO LIKELY ORGANIZE INTO A SEVERE MCS INTO NRN/CENTRAL NEB AND SRN SD OVERNIGHT. ..EVANS.. 06/07/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 7 17:26:51 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 07 Jun 2004 12:26:51 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200406071726.i57HQU818816@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 071724 SWODY2 SPC AC 071723 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1223 PM CDT MON JUN 07 2004 VALID 081200Z - 091200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NNE MTC 20 NE BEH 15 E DSM 30 E HSI 25 SSW MCK 20 ESE DEN 15 SE DGW 30 S RAP 25 E HON 45 E STC 25 NW IWD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 W MFE 10 ENE JCT 35 ENE FSI 30 NE CNU 15 WSW BMG 15 NNE UNI 10 NE EKN 50 SW RIC 45 E RWI 35 ESE EWN ...CONT... 25 SE CEW 35 SW HSV 30 SW MKL 65 SW MEM 40 ESE 7R4 ...CONT... 65 SE ELP 20 SSE 4CR 45 WNW RTN 25 W 4FC 40 NW RWL 45 WSW BPI 30 N BAM 30 SSE RNO 10 SE SAC 60 NW SFO ...CONT... 25 SSW AST 50 SE SEA 50 NNE MSO 20 W 3HT 45 NNW REJ 55 N ATY 55 ENE ELO ...CONT... 45 SSE HUL 45 WSW ALB 25 E BFD 15 S CLE 30 SSE CGX 40 NW IRK 25 WNW BIE 20 NW HLC 20 WSW EHA 55 S CVS 25 S INK 40 SSW P07. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER WRN OREGON IS FORECAST TO MOVE SWD TOMORROW ACROSS NRN CA AS DOWNSTREAM RIDGE AMPLIFIES SLIGHTLY OVER NRN HIGH PLAINS. DOWNSTREAM UPPER LOW OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL PROGRESS EWD ACROSS HUDSON BAY INTO QUEBEC...WITH BAND OF VERY STRONG WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT EXTENDING ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER. FARTHER SOUTH...MODELS INDICATE A SERIES OF WEAK VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL MOVE NNEWD ALONG A CYCLONIC SHEAR ZONE ACROSS CENTRAL TX INTO ERN OK. AT THE SURFACE THE PRIMARY FRONT FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY SEWD THROUGH THE PERIOD...REACHING A LAKE HURON/SRN WI/NERN CO LINE BY 09/12Z. ...UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE OCCURRING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD FROM NRN NEB/ERN SD ENEWD ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS MN/NWRN WI INTO LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE MORNING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS. AIR MASS NEAR THE FRONT WILL REMAIN MOIST WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS OF 65-70F FROM NEB NEWD INTO WI AND MI...AND DAYTIME HEATING SOUTH OF THE FRONT AND/OR CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL DESTABILIZE THE AIR MASS SUBSTANTIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE REACHING 2000-3000 J/KG. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THIS AREA AS STRONG HEATING WEAKENS THE CAP NEAR THE EFFECTIVE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARIES. ALTHOUGH FLOW ALOFT/DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MARGINAL ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT... SUFFICIENT DRY AIR ALOFT IN MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS COUPLED WITH STRONG INSTABILITY SUGGEST THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EWD AND SLOWLY SEWD DURING THE NIGHT...WITH POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS TO CONTINUE AFTER 03-06Z. FARTHER WEST OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...EASTERLY COMPONENT TO LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL ADVECT MOISTURE WWD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OF NERN CO AND SERN WY WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS NEAR 55F SPREADING TOWARD THE FRONT RANGE. DYNAMIC SUPPORT ALOFT WILL BE VERY MINIMAL AS WEAK HEIGHT RISES SPREAD OVER THE AREA AND THIS MAY LIMIT COVERAGE OF CONVECTION ACROSS SERN WY/NERN CO/NEB PANHANDLE AREA. HOWEVER...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND WIND PROFILES THAT VEER AND INCREASE WITH HEIGHT INDICATE A CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT FOR ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP. ...NRN CA INTO OREGON... STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH COLD UPPER LOW DROPPING SWD INTO NRN CA ARE EXPECTED TO ENHANCE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. ALTHOUGH MLCAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE AOB 500 J/KG...STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING WITHIN LEFT EXIT REGION OF MID/UPPER LEVEL JET WILL AID DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED REGIONS OF NRN CA INTO SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON. STRONGER CELLS MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY SURFACE WINDS. ...CENTRAL/ERN TX... ETA MODEL DEVELOPS A 35-45 KT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS THIS REGION DURING THE DAY CONTRIBUTING TO STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR/SRH. GUIDANCE FROM ALL MODELS /ETA..ETAKF...GFS...AND SREF/ INDICATE HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION DEVELOPING EARLY IN THE PERIOD IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MID LEVEL CYCLONIC SHEAR ZONE. THIS WILL LIMIT HEATING AND CONTRIBUTE TO DEVELOPMENT OF NEARLY MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE REGION. ALTHOUGH CAPE WILL BE MARGINAL...THE STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR MAY SUPPORT A FEW EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WITH THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO. ..WEISS.. 06/07/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 8 07:26:00 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 08 Jun 2004 02:26:00 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200406080725.i587Pb801044@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 080723 SWODY2 SPC AC 080722 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0222 AM CDT TUE JUN 08 2004 VALID 091200Z - 101200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW CYS 50 WSW CPR BPI 30 W MLD 40 SW SUN 55 SW 27U 20 WSW BTM 25 ENE 3HT 55 NE 4BQ 30 N VTN 35 NW BBW 30 WNW HLC 30 ESE LIC 20 WSW CYS. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NNW 3B1 15 S HUL ...CONT... 15 NE PSM 50 SE UCA 10 NNE ERI ...CONT... 30 SE DTW 45 ESE MMO 25 NE MLI 20 SW MSN 65 E APN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW GON 35 S MSV 15 ENE AOO 30 ENE EKN 25 NW LYH 35 NNE RDU HSE ...CONT... 30 W BVE 20 S HEZ 40 NE PBF 10 SE UNO 45 SSW TBN 30 W FSM 45 SSE TYR 25 E PSX ...CONT... 10 WNW LRD 60 NNW SAT 20 N MWL 50 NNE OKC ICT 35 SW SLN 35 SW HLC 50 E LAA 35 SSE HOB 80 SSE MRF ...CONT... 70 SSW GDP 40 SSW ROW SAF 20 NE CEZ 25 N U17 30 ESE P38 55 NE NID 40 NNW BFL 10 WSW SCK 10 SSW MHS 50 NNW RDM 70 NW 4OM ...CONT... 65 NNE ISN 45 W JMS 10 SSW AXN 45 NNW EAU ESC 55 E ANJ. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE CENTRAL/NRN HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST... ...INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE CENTRAL/NRN HIGH PLAINS... WRN U.S. UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO OPEN INTO A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH...AND BEGIN EJECTING ENEWD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. NET RESULT WILL BE AN INCREASE IN LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS INTO THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND ALONG THE LEE TROUGH FROM SRN MT INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. UPSLOPE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN INFLUX OF 50+ SFC DEW POINTS AS FAR NW AS SRN MT...SUGGESTING AIR MASS WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE ACROSS CENTRAL WY INTO ERN CO. THOUGH MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SLY IN DIRECTION...SHEAR VALUES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS AS STORMS DEVELOP AND MOVE OFF HIGHER TERRAIN FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO WY/SRN MT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STORMS WILL LIKELY CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE OR TWO ENEWD MOVING MCS/S DURING THE LATE EVENING AND MAINTAIN AT LEAST A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL INTO SD/CENTRAL NEB OVERNIGHT. A SEPARATE AREA OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING NEARER EJECTING UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL JET OVER PORTIONS OF NRN UT/ERN ID INTO SWRN MT ...WHERE INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN MARGINAL THOUGH SHEAR WILL BE RATHER STRONG. ...GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST... SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SINK SWD INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND AND THE LOWER/CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WHERE SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN RATHER HIGH. SOME CONCERN ABOUT EFFECTS OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTION ACROSS SERN CANADA AND THE CENTRAL/WRN GREAT LAKES REGARDING INSTABILITY AND MORNING CLOUDINESS. HOWEVER...WHERE SUN CAN WARM THE BOUNDARY LAYER ADEQUATELY...EXPECT CLUSTERS/LINES OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE LENGTH OF THE SWD MOVING COLD FRONT. SHEAR WILL BE STRONGER OVER THE NORTHEAST...AS REGION REMAINS IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO STRONG WLY JET OVERSPREADING SRN/ERN CANADA. THIS SUGGESTS A THREAT OF SUPERCELLS ALONG WITH SMALL LINEAR CLUSTERS/BOW ECHOES SHIFTING ESEWD INTO THE EVENING. FARTHER WEST INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...SEVERE THREAT WILL BE MORE DRIVEN BY LIKELY STRONG INSTABILITY WITHIN ABUNDANT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...SHOULD ADEQUATE HEATING DEVELOP. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY FORM INTO SEVERAL CLUSTERS/LINES WITH THE THREATS OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ..EVANS.. 06/08/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 8 17:35:00 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 08 Jun 2004 12:35:00 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200406081734.i58HYb226784@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 081732 SWODY2 SPC AC 081731 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1231 PM CDT TUE JUN 08 2004 VALID 091200Z - 101200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW CYS 50 WSW CPR BPI 30 W MLD TWF 45 WNW SUN 55 SW 27U 20 WSW BTM 25 ENE 3HT 55 NE 4BQ 50 NW PHP 15 WSW ANW 35 ESE LBF 25 SSW MCK 30 SSW GLD 35 SSE LIC 40 W LIC 20 E FCL 20 WSW CYS. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE DTW 40 SSE CGX 35 E MLI 20 SW DBQ 25 WSW LNR 20 SW OSH 55 E OSC ...CONT... 40 N BML 10 NW EPM ...CONT... 20 ENE BOS 50 SSE UCA 25 ENE ERI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NNE DVL 45 E FAR 50 ENE STC 15 NE RHI 15 WNW ANJ ...CONT... 20 SW GON 15 W AVP 15 NW AOO 50 W MRB CHO 10 E ORF ...CONT... 25 S GPT 30 ENE MCB 20 S GLH 35 WNW MEM 15 SSW POF 40 WNW POF UNO 20 S HRO 25 S PRX 25 NE CLL 15 SE PSX ...CONT... 50 NW LRD 35 WSW ABI 25 W CSM 15 NE HUT 15 N MHK 20 SSW BIE 40 SE HSI 30 ENE HLC 20 ESE EHA 40 SW LBB 15 SE P07 ...CONT... 65 WNW MRF 40 ENE TCS 30 WSW GNT PGA 25 W SGU 60 W DRA 35 ENE FAT 40 NNE SAC 30 N MHS 10 NNW BLI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN GREAT LAKES... AND NEW ENGLAND STATES... ...HIGH PLAINS/NRN ROCKIES... A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW WILL SHIFT SEWD INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ON DAY 2. AS THE UPPER-TROUGH SHIFTS EWD...A SFC LOW WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE NEWD INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. THIS WILL RESULT IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO WRN NEB...WY AND NE CO DURING THE DAY. A WEAK IMPULSE IS FORECAST BY THE ETA...ETAKF AND GFS TO EJECT NEWD OUT OF THE TROUGH INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT LIFT FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON. THE STORMS WILL DEVELOP NEAR A STATIONARY FRONT LOCATED FROM NW TO SE ACROSS ERN ID...SRN WY AND NRN CO. AS TEMPS WARM IN THE AFTERNOON...CONVECTION SHOULD INITIATE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND MOVE NEWD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION SHOW STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILES CREATING 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 35 TO 45 KT...MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH SUPERCELLS LIKELY IN THE BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS WY...NEB AND NE CO. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INVERTED V-PROFILES SUGGEST A THREAT WILL EXIST FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ALTHOUGH SUPERCELLS DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE ISOLATED...THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS THE STORMS SPREAD NEWD. ...SRN GREAT LAKES/NEW ENGLAND STATES... A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY IN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC WILL MOVE SEWD TONIGHT AND BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY ON DAY2...EXTENDING EAST TO WEST FROM NRN IA ACROSS THE CHICAGO AREA INTO LOWER MI AND NRN NY. ALTHOUGH LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SHOULD BE WEAK ACROSS THE REGION...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE THE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NECESSARY FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION AS TEMPS WARM AND THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...SHOW UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR WITH RELATIVELY WEAK MID-LEVEL FLOW. HOWEVER...0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 20 TO 30 KT WHICH STILL SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR MULTICELL SEVERE STORMS. ALTHOUGH HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS...WIND DAMAGE SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT CONSIDERING THE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL BE POSITIONED FROM EAST TO WEST ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. THE STORMS SHOULD MOVE SEWD AWAY FROM THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH THE GREATEST SEVERE THREAT OCCURRING NEAR AND JUST AFTER PEAK HEATING. STABILIZATION WILL ALLOW THE SEVERE THREAT TO SLOWLY DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING. ..BROYLES.. 06/08/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 9 07:17:55 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 09 Jun 2004 02:17:55 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200406090717.i597HU217994@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 090715 SWODY2 SPC AC 090714 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0214 AM CDT WED JUN 09 2004 VALID 101200Z - 111200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NW CNK RSL 55 ESE GLD 25 NNE SNY 20 W CDR 30 WNW RAP 25 N PHP 60 ENE ANW 35 SSW OLU 15 NW CNK. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW CDS 35 SSE AMA 35 SW GCK 50 W CDR 45 W 4BQ 50 NNW MLS OLF 40 WSW DVL 30 S FAR 10 NNE RWF 60 NE OMA 40 SSE BIE 30 NNW CDS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 WNW RRT 40 SSW BJI 25 WNW EAU 35 S JXN 20 W DUJ 10 NE ISP ...CONT... 30 SW MOB 20 NNW MEI 35 ENE TUP 55 NNE MKL 20 SW CGI 20 ENE UNO 35 NNE TYR 20 S PSX ...CONT... 75 S MRF 15 ENE HOB 55 S LAA 10 WSW LIC 40 E DPG 20 E EKO 70 ESE BNO 55 NNW 4OM. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF NEB...SD...KS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A LARGER PORTION OF THE GREAT PLAINS... ...PLAINS... WRN U.S. UPPER LOW /NOW OVER CENTRAL CA/ WILL EJECT ENEWD AS AN OPEN TROUGH THURSDAY. SYSTEM WILL TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT AND ALLOW SEASONABLY STRONG WSWLY FLOW ALOFT TO OVERSPREAD THE HIGH PLAINS...AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT FROM THE OK/NRN TX PANHANDLE NWD INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS. APPROACHING UPPER SYSTEM WILL ALSO SUPPORT SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER WRN KS...AND SERN MT...AS LARGE AREA OF PRESSURE FALLS DEEPENS LEE TROUGH ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL BE ALIGNED WITH THE DRY LINE AND PUSH INTO WRN KS/WRN TX DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON...WITH PRIMARY PUSH SOUTH OF LOW CENTER ACROSS WRN KS INTO S-CENTRAL NEB LATE IN THE DAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY SUPPORT WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH WILL LIKELY BE SIGNIFICANT...THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. STEEP LAPSE RATES...AND RESULTANT CAP...SUGGEST STRONG HEATING AND APPROACHING LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL BE NEEDED TO INITIATE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...LIKELY AFTER 20Z. SEVERE THREAT WILL BE INCREASINGLY CONDITIONAL SWD ALONG DRY LINE /ESPECIALLY ACROSS WRN TX/...THOUGH MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS SOMEWHAT CYCLONIC EVEN AS FAR SOUTH AS W-CENTRAL TX DURING THE EARLY EVENING. INITIATION MAY OCCUR A BIT EARLIER IN THE DAY ACROSS NERN WY/SERN MT WHERE COLD MID LEVEL AIR AND DEEP ASCENT WILL WEAKEN CAPPING. ACTIVITY WILL BECOME SEVERE QUICKLY AS WARM SECTOR BECOMES VERY UNSTABLE WITHIN AXIS OF UPPER 60F-LOWER 70F SURFACE DEW POINTS INTO WRN SD...AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS ENHANCED BY UPSLOPE COMPONENT WITHIN BOUNDARY LAYER. SUPERCELLS/SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY BECOME WIDESPREAD THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING UNDER STRONGLY DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW REGIME AHEAD OF APPROACHING SURFACE LOW/TROUGH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. VERY LARGE HAIL ALONG WITH TORNADOES CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH ADDITIONAL THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD STORMS EVOLVE INTO BOWING STRUCTURES INTO CENTRAL SD/NEB DURING THE EVENING. ELEVATED CLUSTERS OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO SPREAD ENEWD TOWARDS THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY LATE IN THE PERIOD. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA AHEAD OF EJECTING UPPER TROUGH MAY SUPPORT MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WITH THESE STORMS. ...NRN MS RIVER VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC... SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM THE CHESAPEAKE WNWWD INTO THE MID MO RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THOUGH RIDGING ALOFT WILL WEAKEN SHEAR...A VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS SHOULD SUPPORT WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF ERN IA INTO THE SRN MID ATLANTIC COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. SHEAR WILL BE A BIT STRONGER OVER THE DELMARVA...WITHIN 25 KT OF WLY MID LEVEL WINDS...THOUGH SEVERE THREAT STILL APPEARS TOO MARGINAL FOR INCLUSION OF A SLIGHT RISK ATTM. ..EVANS.. 06/09/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 9 17:37:50 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 09 Jun 2004 12:37:50 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200406091737.i59HbQ213533@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 091735 SWODY2 SPC AC 091734 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1234 PM CDT WED JUN 09 2004 VALID 101200Z - 111200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SW HLC 45 SE GLD 20 NE GLD 20 ESE AIA 20 ENE CDR 35 SW PHP 35 SW PIR 10 WNW 9V9 60 SSE 9V9 35 ENE BUB 40 S EAR 25 SE HLC 55 SW HLC. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SW CDS 25 E PVW 45 N AMA 30 WSW GLD 10 SE BFF 45 NE SHR 45 NW MLS OLF 25 WNW ISN MOT 35 SSE DVL 35 S FAR 50 WNW RWF 35 WSW SPW 15 WSW OMA 50 NE CSM 30 ESE CDS 50 SW CDS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSW MRF 30 SW INK 20 E CVS 45 N CAO 25 NNW LHX 30 SSW DEN 25 SSE ENV 30 SSW OWY 65 ESE BNO 55 NNW 4OM ...CONT... 25 WNW INL DLH 40 SE MTW 25 SSE DTW 20 NNW FKL 40 SSW ALB BOS ...CONT... 40 WSW HUM 40 SSW GWO 25 NE MEM 20 N POF 35 SSE TBN 30 NNE HRO 10 SSE FSM 35 NNE TYR 20 S PSX. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NEB...SD AND NW KS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS...CNTRL PLAINS AND SRN PLAINS... ...GREAT PLAINS STATES... A HIGH-AMPLITUDE UPPER-TROUGH...CURRENTLY OVER THE WRN US IS FORECAST TO EJECT NEWD INTO THE PLAINS THURSDAY. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER A LARGE WARM SECTOR...A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT SHOULD TAKE PLACE ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL AND NRN PLAINS. THE UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NEWD CROSSING THE ROCKIES TONIGHT. IN RESPONSE...THE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...HELPING TO TRANSPORT UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S F SFC DEWPOINTS NWWD INTO THE MODERATE RISK AREA BY MIDDAY ON THURSDAY. AN MCS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD IN THE VICINITY OF WRN NEB AND SW SD. THIS CONVECTION WILL LIKELY LIFT NWD DURING THE DAY ALLOWING FOR PARTIAL CLEARING IN NW KS AND SW NEB RESULTING IN STRONG SFC HEATING BY AFTERNOON. ETA FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS CNTRL NEB FOR 21Z THU SHOW MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000 TO 3000 J/KG WITH ABOUT 50 KT OF FLOW AT 500 MB. THIS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LONG-LIVED SUPERCELL STORMS WHICH SHOULD INITIATE IN THE HIGH PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND MOVE NEWD INTO THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY DURING THE EVENING HOURS. DUE TO THE STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WHICH IS FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION THU EVENING...SEVERE COVERAGE SHOULD BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD. THE ETA/ETAKF AND GFS GENERALLY AGREE...DEVELOPING A SFC LOW AND DRYLINE IN THE VICINITY OF NW KS WITH BACKED SFC FLOW ACROSS CNTRL NEB...ERN NEB AND SRN SD. THIS BACKED SFC FLOW COMBINED WITH A STRONG SLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL CREATE STRONG VEERING IN THE LOW-LEVELS WHICH WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES. IN ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW COOLING MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES FAVORABLE FOR VERY LARGE HAIL WITH ANY SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP. SCATTERED WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE LIKELY WITH SUPERCELL STORMS THAT TRACK NEWD ACROSS CNTRL NEB AND SRN SD. WIND DAMAGE AND LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH HIGHER-BASED STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN THE DRIER AIR ACROSS WCNTRL NEB...WRN SD AND WRN KS LATE IN THE DAY. AN MCS SHOULD ORGANIZE DURING THE EVENING AND MOVE NEWD AFFECTING IA AND MN OVERNIGHT. A SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN WITH THE SYSTEM CONSIDERING THE MODERATE INSTABILITY...STRONG SHEAR AND WIDESPREAD LARGE-SCALE ASCENT THAT IS FORECAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. ...WEST TX... A DRYLINE SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS WEST TEXAS THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO A WELL-ORGANIZED SYSTEM LIFTING NEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS. SFC DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S F EAST OF THE DRYLINE AND THIS WILL RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY MAINLY ACROSS THE ERN TX PANHANDLE AND LOW-ROLLING PLAINS. MOST OF THE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE EJECTING SYSTEM SHOULD BE NORTH OF THE REGION. AS A RESULT...THE CAPPING INVERSION WILL LIKELY BE STRONG AND INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE STRONG ALONG THE DRYLINE AND ISOLATED STORMS SHOULD INITIATE BY EARLY EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE STRONGEST MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS WEST TX WILL EXIST ACROSS THE OK AND TX PANHANDLES. THIS WOULD FAVOR A BIT MORE SEVERE WEATHER COVERAGE THAN AREAS FARTHER SOUTH. LARGE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY WITH ANY SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP CONSIDERING FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW 850 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES OF 7.5 TO 8.0 C/KM. ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL MAY OCCUR ESPECIALLY IF THE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ENDS UP BEING STRONGER THAN FORECAST. ...MID-ATLANTIC STATES... A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BE ORIENTED WEST TO EAST ACROSS SRN OH...WV INTO MD ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS SFC TEMPS HEAT UP DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE ETA AND GFS AGREE...DEVELOPING MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS VA AND MD WHICH WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THIS AREA SHOW ABOUT 20 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR...SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE MULTICELL STORMS. THE UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR WIND DAMAGE AS THE PRIMARY THREAT. THE STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND MOVE SEWD DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY DIMINISH QUICKLY IN THE EVENING HOURS AS STABILIZATION OCCURS ACROSS THE REGION. ..BROYLES.. 06/09/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 10 07:50:42 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 10 Jun 2004 02:50:42 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200406100750.i5A7oZ206631@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 100748 SWODY2 SPC AC 100747 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0247 AM CDT THU JUN 10 2004 VALID 111200Z - 121200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE RRT 25 WSW IWD 30 NNW MKE 30 SE RFD 25 ENE P35 25 SSE OMA 20 E ATY 80 NW MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE P07 35 NNW CNK 50 NNE BUB 35 NE PHP 35 ESE REJ 45 SSE SHR 35 SW PUC 50 ENE ELY 40 NNE BOI 45 NW 63S ...CONT... 100 ENE CMX 50 NNW TVC 10 NNW FNT 25 SE FKL 20 E SBY. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE MID MO/NRN MS RIVER VALLEYS... ...SYNOPSIS... HIGH AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO FOCUS INTENSE CONVECTION DURING THE DAY 1 PERIOD...WILL CONTINUE LIFTING NEWD WITH SEVERAL LOBES OF ENERGY EJECTING ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE NRN PLAINS FRIDAY. MAIN UPPER LOW WILL LIFT NWD AND BECOME NEAR VERTICALLY STACKED AS SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS INTO SERN SASK. ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH/DRY LINE WILL MOVE NNEWD ACROSS ND AND EWD INTO S-CENTRAL MN/WRN IA DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH SRN END STALLING SWWD FROM IA INTO WRN OK/CENTRAL TX. IN ADDITION...E-W ORIENTED SURFACE FRONT WILL SETTLE SWD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC...THOUGH WILL LIFT NWD AS A WARM FRONT INTO THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY AND THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE AFTERNOON. ...NRN PLAINS INTO THE NRN MS\MID MO RIVER VALLEYS... MCS...POSSIBLY MARGINALLY SEVERE...WILL SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THIS REGION FRIDAY MORNING. EFFECTS OF THIS ACTIVITY INCREASE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING DEGREE OF SEVERE THREAT IN ITS WAKE FRIDAY. HOWEVER...A VERY MOIST AND POTENTIALLY EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS MAY DEVELOP WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR EAST OF THE DRY LINE AND SOUTH OF WARM FRONT FROM THE MID MO RIVER VALLEY INTO SRN MN BY MID AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...REGION WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR LARGE SCALE ASCENT AS HEIGHTS FALL ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING TROUGH. GIVEN 40-50 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR...AND ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR NEAR SURFACE WAVES/BOUNDARIES...SEVERE THREAT COULD BE ENHANCED FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS AIR MASS DESTABILIZES IN WAKE OF EARLIER STORMS...PRIMARILY FROM SERN ND/SWRN MN INTO IA/WRN WI. STORMS WILL INITIALLY BE SUPERCELLULAR...WITH EVENTUAL EVOLUTION INTO ONE OR MORE SEVERE MCSS SPREADING ACROSS THE MS RIVER VALLEY AFTER DARK. WILL KEEP PROBABILITIES BELOW MODERATE RISK THRESHOLDS ATTM DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING STORMS EARLY IN THE DAY. FARTHER NORTHWEST ALONG SURFACE TROUGH...AIR MASS WILL BE LESS UNSTABLE THOUGH SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE IN PLACE FOR A FEW TORNADOES ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL. ...MID MO RIVER VALLEY SWWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS... LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL BE ABSENT OVER THIS REGION...THOUGH STRONG HEATING WITHIN A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL SUPPORT STRONG INSTABILITY BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. HEATING AND CONVERGENCE MAY WEAKEN CAP AND SUPPORT ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE DAY...AS REGION REMAINS WITHIN 35-45 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THREAT ACROSS THIS REGION IS MORE CONDITIONAL AND WORTHY OF ONLY LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES ATTM. ...SRN GREAT LAKES INTO CHESAPEAKE REGION... THIS AREA WILL REMAIN WITHIN NWLY MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW PARALLELING SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE SRN GREAT LAKES INTO ERN VA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...STORMS WHICH CAN SUSTAIN THEMSELVES OR DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON MAY BE FED BY MODERATE INSTABILITY JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF THE SURFACE FRONT. ATTM... MODEL FORECASTS DO NOT PRODUCE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT. BUT LARGE SCALE PATTERN THIS TIME OF YEAR REMAINS FAVORABLE...AND WILL INCLUDE LOW PROBABILITIES ALONG THE FRONT AS FRONT WILL LIKELY REMAIN CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. ..EVANS.. 06/10/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 10 17:18:16 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 10 Jun 2004 12:18:16 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200406101717.i5AHHr222883@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 101715 SWODY2 SPC AC 101714 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1214 PM CDT THU JUN 10 2004 VALID 111200Z - 121200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM INL 35 W IWD 20 WSW OSH 20 ENE RFD 30 NNE PIA 15 SE BRL 30 NE P35 40 E OMA 15 E FSD 10 NW ABR 60 NNW ISN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE P07 15 NNE CDS 30 ENE RSL 45 WNW OLU 25 SSE PIR 35 ESE REJ 40 W GCC 25 N PUC 25 E U24 35 SSW DPG BOI 40 NNE 4OM ...CONT... 55 NNE CMX 50 NNW TVC 25 NNW MTC 25 WNW AOO 20 E SBY. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND NRN PLAINS... ...UPPER MS VALLEY/NRN PLAINS... A HIGH-AMPLITUDE UPPER-TROUGH WILL DAMPEN AND PROGRESS NEWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A BROAD SWATH OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHICH WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. A LARGE MCS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...NORTH OF A SFC LOW ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NWD INTO SRN MN EXTENDING SEWD INTO NRN IL BY AFTERNOON. A MOIST AXIS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT NEWD WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S F REACHING AS FAR NORTH AS SRN MN. AS THE MCS MOVES EWD DURING THE DAY...A DRYSLOT SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM WILL SHIFT NEWD INTO IA AND SRN MN ALLOWING FOR STRONG SFC HEATING WITH MLCAPE VALUES LIKELY REACHING 3000 TO 4000 J/KG. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS UPPER MS VALLEY...SHOW 30 TO 40 KT OF FLOW AT 500 MB. THIS COUPLED WITH STRONGLY BACKED SFC WINDS JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE WARM FRONT WILL CREATE 40 TO 50 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR FAVORING SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. THE STRONGLY VEERED LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILES WILL FAVOR TORNADOES ESPECIALLY WITH SUPERCELLS IN THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY THAT CROSS THE WARM FRONT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. SUPERCELLS WILL ALSO HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL ESPECIALLY ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE WARM FRONT AND IN THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY ACROSS NRN IA AND SERN MN. OTHERWISE...WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MOST COVERAGE LIKELY ACROSS SRN MN AND IA WHERE LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST TO EXCEED 8.0 C/KM. FARTHER NW ACROSS NRN MN...NE SD AND ND...AN MCS ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY. THIS SHOULD IMPEDE SFC HEATING SOME BUT MINIMAL WARMING WILL STILL YIELD ABOUT 1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE BY LATE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPS WITH -16 TO -18C AT 500 MB. THIS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS. IF MORE INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP THAN IS FORECAST...THE LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILES WOULD FAVOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT. ...CNTRL PLAINS... SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY IN THE LOWER 70S F ACROSS NRN OK AND ERN KS. THIS MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE FRIDAY AND THIS COUPLED WITH STRONG SFC HEATING WILL YIELD MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000 TO 3000 J/KG. A COLD FRONT AND DRYLINE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EWD ACROSS OK AND KS DURING THE DAY. ALTHOUGH LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL BE WEAK...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LOADED GUN CHARACTERISTICS SUGGESTING STRONG UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LIKELY ONCE THE CAP WEAKENS. HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE ABOUT 25 TO 30 KT WHICH SHOULD FAVOR MULTICELL DEVELOPMENT. ALTHOUGH MID-LEVELS SHOULD BE FAIRLY WARM...STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY RESULT IN A MARGINAL HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE THREAT DURING A NARROW WINDOW JUST AFTER PEAK HEATING. ...UPPER OH VALLEY... A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT SHOULD BE LOCATED ACROSS IND AND OH FRIDAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS TEMPS WARM DURING THE DAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MODERATE INSTABILITY AND ABOUT 30 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS. UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES AND MOIST LOW-LEVELS WOULD FAVOR WET DOWNBURSTS WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS. THE MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY AS STABILIZATION OCCURS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE EARLY EVENING. ..BROYLES.. 06/10/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 11 17:29:08 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 11 Jun 2004 12:29:08 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200406111728.i5BHSj219300@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 111727 SWODY2 SPC AC 111725 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1225 PM CDT FRI JUN 11 2004 VALID 121200Z - 131200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNE MKO 40 E SPS SJT BGS CDS 45 NE DDC EAR YKN RWF MSP AUW MTW 45 SSE CGX 20 N SLO 10 NE UNO 35 NNE MKO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ERI LBE LYH 35 SE EWN ...CONT... PFN 20 S AUO HSV 35 SW JBR 30 SE PGO 35 SSE DAL 10 NW LRD ...CONT... 70 S MRF 30 NE INK 15 E AMA 25 WSW LBL LAA ALS CEZ U17 U24 RIW 20 NNW 81V 45 NE 4BQ 65 W MLS BZN MSO 3TH 75 ENE 63S. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... PATTERN ACROSS THE CONTIGUOUS U.S. WILL BE DOMINATED BY A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE NERN GULF OF MEXICO NWD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. AS A RESULT...COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST DURING DAY 1 WILL BECOME QUASISTATIONARY EXTENDING FROM WRN MN AND WRN IA SWWD INTO NERN NM BY THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. ALSO...A WARM FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM NERN MN SEWD THROUGH NWRN OH INTO NERN NC. THE ETA...GFS AND MM5 MODELS INDICATE SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SRN BRANCH OF THE WRN U.S. TROUGH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND LOWER MO VALLEY REGION DURING THE PERIOD. ALL THREE MODELS ZERO IN ON A VORTICITY MAX THAT WILL ENHANCE STRONG CONVECTION OVER ERN NE/NERN KS AND NWRN MO LATER IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH MAY INDICATE STRONG MCS/MCC ACROSS THIS REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. ...CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY... MODELS ALL INDICATE A SURFACE LOW THAT WILL DEVELOP OVER SWRN/CENTRAL KS BY THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. THIS IS EXPECTED TO ENHANCE LOW LEVEL JET TO 40-50 KT ACROSS OK INTO NERN KS. THIS IS ALSO EXPECTED TO ENHANCE LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION. MID LEVEL FLOW IN THE SRN BRANCH IS FORECAST TO BE WLY/SWLY 50-55 KT WITH UPPER LEVEL JET NEAR 60 KT. BOTH THE ETA AND GFS LOOK TO BE HANDLING FINER FEATURES OF THIS EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WITH INDICATIONS OF CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK...BUT FEEL THAT KINEMATIC PROFILES SUGGESTS STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS OVER PARTS OF ERN NE AND ERN KS INTO WRN MO DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. MODELS ALSO SHOW VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S W OF SURFACE DRYLINE THAT WILL EXTEND FROM CENTRAL KS SWWD THROUGH NWRN OK INTO EXTREME W CENTRAL TX. DAYTIME HEATING IS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO FORECAST CAPE BETWEEN 3000 AND 5000 J/KG OVER ERN KS. THIS COMBINED WITH DEEP LAYER OF 40-45 KT OVER NERN KS ALSO SHOWS THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL INITIALLY WITH THIS ACTIVITY. THUS...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED NEAR THE SURFACE LOW OVER KS BY LATE AFTERNOON AS CAP WEAKENS ALLOWING FOR STRONG/RAPID DEVELOPMENT OVER NERN KS AND SERN NEB SWD ALONG THE DRYLINE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL THEN CLUSTER FORMING INTO AN MCS/MCC OVER NWRN INTO CENTRAL MO OVERNIGHT WITH MAIN THREATS BEING DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL. ...SRN NC INTO SC AND SERN GA... COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE SWD DURING THE PERIOD ALONG THE SRN HALF OF THE ATLANTIC COAST. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHERE AIR MASS WILL BE POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE WITH CAPE TO 2500 J/KG. MID LEVEL JET ENTRANCE REGION OF 30-40 KT WILL EXTEND SEWD ACROSS VA/NC EARLY IN THE DAY. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS LATE SATURDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. ..MCCARTHY.. 06/11/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 12 17:01:50 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 12 Jun 2004 12:01:50 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200406121701.i5CH1S212239@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 121659 SWODY2 SPC AC 121657 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1157 AM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004 VALID 131200Z - 141200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N ALN 50 SSE SZL 30 S CNU ICT HUT 30 ESE LNK 30 N ALO 20 NE LNR 35 NNE MMO 15 ENE BMI 25 N ALN. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ERI LBE CRW LEX SGF OKC CSM GAG RSL HSI FSD EAU MQT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 S MRF 10 WSW MAF 20 SE GCK BBW 9V9 MBG 65 NNW REJ 40 WNW 4BQ CPR LAR 35 W FCL 30 NNW EGE 45 ENE VEL 20 NW BPI 15 W IDA 80 NNE BOI 10 S ALW 45 NW 63S ...CONT... 20 WNW MFE 25 ENE NIR 45 ESE LFK 25 ESE MLU 40 E PBF 40 N LIT 20 N PGO 25 NE DAL 15 WNW LRD ...CONT... 25 WNW ROC PSB 10 E SHD 45 E RWI 40 ESE EWN. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACRS ERN KS...SERN NE...SRN AND ERN IA...NRN MO AND W CENTRAL/NWRN IL.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.... ...SYNOPSIS... MAIN BAND OF THE WESTERLIES WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NWRN AND N CENTRAL PARTS OF THE U.S. INTO THE DAY 2 PERIOD. SEEMS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL TRANSITION A BIT AS MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES FROM LATE DAY 1 THROUGH DAY 2 AS RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE SWRN U.S. AND REMAINS IN PLACE E OF THE FL PENINSULA. MODELS THEN DEVELOP A WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SERN TX/WRN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE LATTER HALF OF DAY TWO. SEEMS THE MODELS HAVE AN INTERESTING TIME DEPICTING THE MAIN SURFACE FEATURES WITH THIS TRANSITION. FIRST MAIN COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND NRN AREAS OF THE MID MS VALLEY BETWEEN 13/18Z AND 14/06Z AS THE NLY BRANCH OF THE WESTERLIES INCREASES AS STRONG 100-110 KT UPPER JET EXTENDS ACROSS THE NWRN U.S. INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. BOTH MODELS ARE ALSO VERY SIMILAR IN HANDLING THERMODYNAMIC ASPECTS ACROSS THE MDT RISK AREA ...ALTHOUGH GFS STILL LOOKS TO HAVE SOME PROBLEMS WITH CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. ...LOWER MO AND MID MS VALLEY REGIONS... BOTH THE ETA AND GFS INDICATE A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN PLACE FROM CENTRAL/ERN KS INTO NRN MO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE EAST OF SURFACE DRYLINE/TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO BE FROM NERN NE SWD/SWWD THROUGH S CENTRAL KS INTO W CENTRAL TX. THIS AREA WILL ALSO BE S OF A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE FROM NERN WI SWWD INTO NERN NE. ETA MODEL INDICATES THAT CAPE WILL BE NEAR/AROUND 4000 J/KG OVER NERN KS/NWRN MO /LIFTED INDICES AROUND -12/ WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOW 70S. QUESTION REMAINS WHERE AND IF THERE WILL BE ANY CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER AREA FROM DAY 1 CONVECTION. ETA MODEL WEAKENS LOW LEVEL FLOW TO AROUND 30 KT AHEAD OF MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT LIFTS ENEWD FROM THE ERN PARTS OF THE NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/SERN ONTARIO. FAVORABLE ENTRANCE REGION OF MODEST MID/UPPER LEVEL JETS OF 40-50 KT AND 70-80 KT RESPECTIVELY...WILL EXTEND FROM NE/IA INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THUS...COMBINATION OF STRONG INSTABILITY GRADIENT COUPLED WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40-50 KT WILL BE OVER NRN MO/SRN IA INTO W CENTRAL IL FOR BEST TORNADO THREAT LATE SUNDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. GREATEST SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE LARGE HAIL WITH SUCH HIGH INSTABILITY ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG GUSTY WINDS. ...GREAT LAKES REGION... COLD FRONT ADVANCING EWD ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW WILL EXTEND FROM NERN WI INTO CENTRAL IA AND NERN KS BY 14/00Z...THEN FROM E CENTRAL LOWER MI INTO CENTRAL KS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS FORECAST LATE SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY AS THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND MID MS VALLEY REGION. THUS...LOOKS LIKE MODE WILL CHANGES AS THE GREATEST THREAT BECOMES DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. ..MCCARTHY.. 06/12/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 13 07:47:53 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 13 Jun 2004 02:47:53 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200406130747.i5D7lY214567@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 130745 SWODY2 SPC AC 130744 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0244 AM CDT SUN JUN 13 2004 VALID 141200Z - 151200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE SBY 10 W RIC 15 ESE 5I3 10 WSW LEX 15 ESE STL 20 SSW OJC 20 WNW SLN 15 N LBF 15 NW ANW 40 SSW MHE 35 W ALO 35 WNW RFD 20 S GRR 20 NE MTC ...CONT... 25 WNW EFK 10 ESE JFK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW LRD 25 WNW TXK 20 NW PGO 50 E OKC 25 NE SPS 35 SSW SJT 35 ESE FST 35 NNE FST 30 SE LBB 45 NNW CDS DDC 40 NW GCK 50 NNW CAO 40 NNE SAF 15 E FMN 10 NNE U17 45 SSW BIH 55 NE MER 35 SE TVL 35 ENE EVW 45 SSW REJ 55 SW MBG 60 SSW JMS 50 NE BIS 35 NNE HVR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE ORF 15 E RWI 20 S FAY 30 SW CRE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS EWD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC/WRN NEW ENGLAND... ...SYNOPSIS... A BROAD BELT OF MODERATE ZONAL FLOW WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE NRN 1/3RD OF THE NATION THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALONG THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THIS STRONGER FLOW...A NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NEB EWD INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE GREATEST SEVERE THREAT WILL BE SOMEWHAT MODULATED BY DAY ONE ACTIVITY...BUT CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID MO RIVER VALLEY/CENTRAL PLAINS WHERE HIGH TO EXTREME INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH MODEST FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SVR WEATHER. ADDITIONAL TO THE THREAT OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE COUNTRY...THERE WILL BE THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WITH A TROPICAL SYSTEM AS IT MOVES INLAND INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY EARLY IN THE PERIOD. ...MID MO VALLEY EWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY... HIGH TO EXTREME INSTABILITY AXIS FUELED BY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND AMPLE MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S WILL EXIST ALONG AND SOUTH OF A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM SERN NEB/NERN KS INTO SRN IA/FAR NRN MO. RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF STRONG UPPER JET MAX OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND FOCUSED CONVERGENCE AT THE LOW LEVELS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE SUFFICIENT FORCING MECHANISMS FOR RAPID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE AN AXIS OF MLCAPES FROM 4500-6000 J/KG FROM FAR NCENTRAL KS/SCENTRAL NEB EWD INTO FAR NRN MO/SRN IA ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT. DEGREE OF HOW WIDESPREAD AND SEVERE THIS CONVECTION WILL BE WILL BE SOMEWHAT DEPENDENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF DAY ONE ACTIVITY IN THIS SAME AREA. AT THE PRESENT...CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED TO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE AT LEAST SIGNIFICANT HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. LOW LEVEL SHEAR ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AND EARLY IN THE CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR TORNADOES AS WELL. CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED TO EVOLVE INTO A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NRN MO/SRN IA INTO FAR WRN IL OVERNIGHT AS SWLY LOW-MID LEVEL JET AIDS IN IT/S EWD MOVEMENT ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. DEPENDING ON THE OUTCOME OF DAY ONE CONVECTION...THIS AREA MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED IN LATER OUTLOOKS. ...OHIO VALLEY/SRN GREAT LAKES EWD INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND/MID ATLANTIC... SEVERAL CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS FROM DAY ONE ACTIVITY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES ARE EXPECTED TO MIGRATE EWD INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID ATLANTIC BY THE AFTERNOON. HEATING /DESTABILIZATION ALONG WITH A PLUME OF STEEP LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF THESE REMNANT CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS WILL AID IN THE LIKELIHOOD OF AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH...A BROAD BELT OF 30 TO 40 KTS AT MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BE OVER THE AREA AND ALONG WITH THE MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO THE LIKELIHOOD OF SEVERE WINDS/HAIL. FARTHER WEST...ADDITIONAL REDEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE BY AFTERNOON OVER SERN LOWER MI SWWD INTO NRN IND/IL AHEAD OF STATIONARY FRONT AND AHEAD OF STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH. INSTABILITY IN THIS AREA MAY BE SLOWER TO DEVELOP...DUE TO EARLIER CONVECTION AND POTENTIAL FROM CIRRUS CLOUD COVER CANOPY FROM CENTRAL PLAINS CONVECTION. ADDITIONALLY CONVERGENCE WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK IN THE AREA. HOWEVER...IF CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP THEN STRENGTH OF WIND FIELDS AND AT LEAST MODERATE INSTABILITY WOULD FAVOR THE EVOLUTION OF AN ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE CLUSTER. ...NRN NEB/FAR SRN SD... INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET AND STRONG CONVERGENCE IN THE 900-800 MB LAYER SHOULD AID IN ELEVATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NORTH OF STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL NEB DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND CLOUD BEARING SHEAR FROM 30-40 KTS SHOULD AID IN THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE HAIL AS THE PRIMARY THREAT. ...WI/NRN LOWER MI... SECONDARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SWD THROUGH NRN WI/NRN LOWER MID THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AIRMASS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS UNSTABLE AS LOCATIONS FURTHER SOUTH...AND DEGREE OF HEATING FROM UNCERTAINTY IN CLOUD COVER MAY LIMIT MUCAPES TO LESS THAN 1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...IF LATER FORECASTS INDICATE BETTER HEATING/DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL...THEN STRONG WIND FIELDS WOULD FAVOR ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL. ...LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY... LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES/SHEAR WILL INCREASE IN ASSOCIATION WITH APPROACHING TROPICAL DISTURBANCE AS IT MOVES NWD OUT OF THE NRN GULF INTO THE AREA DURING THE PERIOD. 15 KTS OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND MOIST LOW LEVELS/LOW LCL HEIGHTS WILL FAVOR THE THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES. GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BOTH GFS/ETA ON THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS FURTHER ADDS CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST. MARGINAL NATURE OF THE WIND FIELDS WILL KEEP FORECAST TO LESS THAN CATEGORICAL SEVERE FOR NOW. ..CROSBIE/HART.. 06/13/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 13 17:26:20 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 13 Jun 2004 12:26:20 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200406131725.i5DHPx225072@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 131723 SWODY2 SPC AC 131722 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1222 PM CDT SUN JUN 13 2004 VALID 141200Z - 151200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW EFK 10 ESE JFK ...CONT... 25 ESE SBY RIC 35 NE BWG 20 NW CGI 15 E LBL 10 ENE PUB DEN 55 W BFF 35 WNW CDR 40 NE VTN 55 NW LWD 35 NW BRL 35 N APN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SW P07 45 WSW CVS 40 NNE SAF 45 WSW 4HV 10 NNW BIH 25 ENE TVL 25 SSW BAM 40 NW EVW 60 SSW JMS 50 NE BIS 35 NNE HVR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE DHT 30 NNW PVW 45 E BGS 10 SE BWD 45 NNW HOT 25 WSW HRO 30 NE DHT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL U.S. TO THE MID ATLANTIC/GREAT LAKES... ...SYNOPSIS... A LARGE AREA ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES/APPALACHIANS/MID ATLANTIC WILL LIKELY SEE AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY. FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH...ASSOCIATED WITH VORT MAX NOW BECOMING BETTER DEFINED OVER MT...WILL PROGRESS EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL AID IN MOVING SURFACE COLD FRONT ESEWD INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES/MID MS RIVER VALLEY DURING THE DAY...WITH TRAILING PORTION BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY IN A E-W ORIENTATION ACROSS CENTRAL MO/KS INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT... AIR MASS WILL BECOME VERY UNSTABLE...THOUGH WARM SECTOR WILL BE CLUTTERED WITH NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES/SFC TROUGHS FROM EARLIER SYSTEMS. ...GREAT LAKES/MID MS RIVER VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS... THIS AREA WILL BECOME INFLUENCED BY PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH THE DAY...INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR. REGION WILL REMAIN ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF MODERATE WLY FLOW ALOFT WITH 50+ KT H5 WINDS OVERSPREADING THE COLD FRONT FROM LOWER MI/WRN NY INTO CENTRAL IL/NRN IND. THOUGH PRIMARY FOCUS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAY AWAIT APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATER IN THE DAY... MOST LIKELY INCREASE IN SEVERE THREAT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE NUMEROUS SURFACE BOUNDARIES LEFT ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. MLCAPES ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED 2000 J/KG OVER THE OH RIVER VALLEY...WITH LESSER CAPE INTO THE GREAT LAKES...BY THE MID AFTERNOON WHEN CAPPING WILL BECOME NEGLIGIBLE. GIVEN DEGREE OF SHEAR...THIS WILL ENHANCE THE ORGANIZATION/SEVERE THREAT WITH INCREASING CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION. DAMAGING WINDS WILL LIKELY BE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT AS STORMS SPREAD EWD THROUGH THE EVENING...THOUGH SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND DEGREE OF INSTABILITY SUGGEST ISOLATED TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED. ...ERN GREAT LAKES/NY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC... WITH MODEST WLY FLOW ALOFT OVERSPREADING THIS REGION...AND EXPECTED DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY...APPEARS THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. PRIMARY FOCUSING MECHANISMS REMAIN HARD TO IDENTIFY THIS FAR IN ADVANCE...HOWEVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND REMNANT SURFACE FRONT ALONG NERN PERIPHERY OF RETURNING GULF MOISTURE BOTH MAY INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS BY THE MID AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL SPREAD EWD AS CLUSTERS/LINES WITH PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS INTO THE MID EVENING. ...CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OF CO/SERN WY/WRN NEB... ETA AND GFS BOTH DEEPEN A SURFACE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS DURING LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD...WITH CONVERGENCE BECOMING BETTER FOCUSED ALONG SWD MOVING COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO STALL INTO KS/MO LATE IN THE DAY. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL BE CONFINED ALONG AND SOUTH OF E-W SURFACE FRONT FROM CENTRAL MO INTO KS...WHERE DEW POINTS WILL EXCEED 70F. IN ADDITION...SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE 50S WILL LIKELY ADVECT WWD INTO NERN CO/SERN WY/NEB PANHANDLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS PRESSURES FALL OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND SURFACE WINDS BECOME MORE ESELY. SHEAR WILL NOT BE OVERLY STRONG OVER THIS REGION...THOUGH DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND ENHANCEMENT DUE TO UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE HIGH PLAINS SUGGEST A FEW SUPERCELLS AS STORMS DEVELOP OFF HIGHER TERRAIN AND FARTHER EAST ALONG THE COLD FRONT LATE IN THE DAY. ACTIVITY MAY BECOME MORE MULTICELLULAR/LINEAR INTO KS/MO...WITH INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. STORMS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO SPREAD TOO FAR EWD...THOUGH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR ALONG NOSE OF STRONG LLJ AFTER DARK INTO NEB. THESE STORMS WILL POSE OF A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL DUE TO STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY. ...LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY AND SRN TX... WEAK SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL-LIKE SYSTEM SPREADING NWD OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL DEVELOP NWD ALONG THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY MONDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE ESELY LOW LEVEL WINDS WHICH...GIVEN EXPECTED LOW LCLS IN RICH TROPICAL MOISTURE...SUGGEST AREA WARRANTS AT LEAST LOW PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF BRIEF TORNADOES. WILL OPT TO NOT INCLUDE A SLGT RISK ATTM DUE TO AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THIS SYSTEM. LOW PROBABILITIES ALSO INCLUDED INTO PORTIONS OF ERN/SRN TX ALONG BACK EDGE OF TROPICAL SYSTEM. ETA DEVELOPS 30 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND WIDESPREAD CONVECTION DURING LATTER HALF OF PERIOD...UNDER 35 KT NLY MID LEVEL JET. ..EVANS.. 06/13/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 14 07:22:41 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 14 Jun 2004 02:22:41 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200406140722.i5E7MS223425@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 140720 SWODY2 SPC AC 140718 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0218 AM CDT MON JUN 14 2004 VALID 151200Z - 161200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM GRB MKE 10 W UIN OJC 15 E LBL 15 WNW EHA PUB 10 SSW DEN 10 NNE SNY ANW HON AXN DLH RHI GRB. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E WAL 10 W CHO 30 NE EKN PIT 20 ENE ERI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NW LRD 45 WNW AUS ADM OKC GAG DHT SAF GCN LAS 10 SSE NID 10 ESE MER RBL WMC ENV VEL LAR CDR ABR FAR TVF P24 GGW 50 ENE HVR. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ACROSS NEW ENGLAND... BAND OF MODERATELY STRONG WESTERLY MID LEVEL WINDS WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES ON TUESDAY...WITH A COUPLE OF STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN FLOW. THESE TWO SYSTEMS ARE FORECAST TO POSE A RISK OF ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ON DAY2. ...NEW ENGLAND AND MID ATLANTIC REGION... ETA/GFS SOLUTIONS GENERALLY AGREE ON MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER MN/WI INTO NY/PA BY TUESDAY MORNING. SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL ALLOW AIRMASS TO DESTABILIZE OVER NEW ENGLAND...WITH WIDESPREAD DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND POCKETS OF STRONG DAYTIME HEATING. AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG ARE EXPECTED. CLUSTER OF STORMS MAY BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD OVER NY/PA...AND MAY RE-INTENSIFY DURING THE DAY ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. OTHER MORE ISOLATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER NY/PA AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON... SPREADING EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND AS WELL. ORGANIZED MULTICELL OR ISOLATED SUPERCELL STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS. HOWEVER...ETAKF SOLUTION SUGGESTS CONSIDERABLY STRONGER LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY...ALSO SUGGESTING A POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED TORNADOES. ...CENTRAL PLAINS INTO UPPER MS VALLEY... UPPER SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS FORECAST TO OCCUR ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY...WITH SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS MAINTAINING A VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS. FULL SUNSHINE AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN MLCAPE VALUES OVER 3000 J/KG ACROSS PARTS OF KS/NEB/IA. NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON...WEAKENING CAP AND RESULTING IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ACTIVITY MAY ORGANIZE INTO AN MCS DURING THE EVENING AND SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN MN/IA/WI/NRN IL/NRN MO WITH A CONTINUED THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SOUTHWARD ALONG SURFACE DRYLINE OVER WESTERN KS...AND IN UPSLOPE REGION OF EASTERN CO. WESTERLY MID LEVEL WINDS WILL BE WEAKER IN THESE REGIONS. HOWEVER...SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN FOR ORGANIZED STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. ..HART.. 06/14/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 14 18:52:46 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 14 Jun 2004 13:52:46 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200406141852.i5EIqX209640@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 141734 SWODY2 SPC AC 141733 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1233 PM CDT MON JUN 14 2004 VALID 151200Z - 161200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SW OTM 30 NNW CNK 35 ESE MCK 30 NW BBW 25 NE YKN 30 ESE FRM 20 N ALO 20 S CID 35 SW OTM. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E SBY 40 SSW MRB 10 S ZZV 15 SSE CLE 20 ESE ELM 35 S RUT 20 NNE HUL. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 ESE ANJ 50 SW HTL 15 ENE CGX 10 N UIN 10 N MKC 45 SE DDC 20 WNW LBL LHX 30 E DEN 15 NNW SNY ANW 10 SSE ATY 50 ESE FAR 20 ENE RRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NW LRD 45 WNW AUS 25 N MKO 40 WNW TBN 10 SE SZL 55 W GAG SAF GCN LAS 10 SSE NID 10 ESE MER RBL WMC ENV VEL LAR CDR ABR 40 WSW FAR 25 SW DVL 35 WSW GDV 15 W GTF 55 NNW FCA ...CONT... 80 NE APN 15 N AZO 40 NE FWA 30 NW YNG 15 NE UCA 20 NE MSS. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CENTRAL NEB INTO CENTRAL IA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC/UPPER OH RIVER VALLEY AND NEW ENGLAND... ...CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID/LOWER MO AND NRN MS RIVER VALLEY... WRN END OF SURFACE FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING ENE-WSW ACROSS NRN IL/NRN MO/NRN KS WILL LIFT NWD AS A WARM FRONT DURING THE DAY AND WILL LIKELY DELINEATE NRN EDGE OF AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. IN ADDITION...A SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG NRN STREAM TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD TOWARDS THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY AND SWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD. MCS IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING...OR DEVELOP...OVER ERN SD DURING THE MORNING ALONG NOSE OF SLY LLJ AND WITHIN MARGINAL TO MODERATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY. ETA AND GFS ARE BOTH AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING INTENSE CONVECTION BY 18Z ALONG SWRN FLANK OF MCS AND NEAR APPROACHING COLD FRONT INTO NERN NEB/SERN SD. LEADING EDGE OF MCS MAY INTENSIFY AND TRACK ESEWD ALONG INSTABILITY GRADIENT/WARM FRONT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING AS COLD FRONT SHIFTS SEWD AND CAP ERODES. WITH INCREASING CONVERGENCE ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/SURFACE FRONT...INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP RAPIDLY DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON SSWWD INTO CENTRAL/ERN NEB. REGION WILL REMAIN WITHIN SRN PERIPHERY OF STRONGER BAND OF WLY FLOW ALOFT...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS YIELDING 40-50 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR OVER 2500-3500 J/KG MLCAPES FROM CENTRAL NEB INTO CENTRAL IA BY 21Z. THEREFORE...IN ADDITION TO POTENTIAL FOR ONE OR MORE BOW ECHO MCSS...ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES MAY ALSO DEVELOP. COMBINATION OF EXTREME INSTABILITY AND MODEST SHEAR AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM WARRANTS UPGRADE TO A MODERATE RISK FROM CENTRAL NEB INTO MUCH OF IA FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEVERE THREAT WILL BE MORE ISOLATED NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT/INSTABILITY GRADIENT...ALONG APPROACHING COLD FRONT INTO MN AND NRN WI. HOWEVER...STRONG SHEAR AND SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE 50S MAY SUFFICE FOR A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. FARTHER WEST/SOUTHWEST...SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE A BIT WEAKER. HOWEVER...MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY IS STILL LIKELY TO DEVELOP INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OF WRN NEB/ERN CO/WRN KS. SURFACE LOW/DRY LINE CONVERGENCE AND STRONG HEATING SHOULD OVERCOME CAPPING ACROSS THIS REGION AND SUPPORT ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE DAY. DEPENDING ON PRESENCE OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT...AS FORECAST BY THE MODELS...ACTIVITY MAY CONSOLIDATE INTO A MCS AND SHIFT ESEWD ACROSS WRN/CENTRAL KS THROUGH THE EVENING. ...NORTHEAST... APPEARS COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH NOW OVERSPREADING THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL SHIFT EWD ACROSS WRN NY/WRN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE MORNING. ETA AND GFS DISAGREE WITH EXTENT OF MORNING CONVECTION AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...AXIS OF MARGINAL TO MODERATE INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP IN WAKE OF MORNING STORMS AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT INTO THE ERN HALF OF NEW ENGLAND. GIVEN STRENGTH OF SHEAR...WILL MAINTAIN A CONDITIONAL SLIGHT RISK ACROSS MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY. ...MID ATLANTIC REGION INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY... BOUNDARY WILL SLOW AS IT BECOMES MORE E-W INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ACROSS SRN PA AND INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY DURING THE DAY. A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THIS PORTION OF THE FRONT. THOUGH SHEAR WILL BE WEAKER THAN FARTHER NE...DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELL LINES/CLUSTERS ACROSS THIS AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...MAINLY INTO THE APPALACHIANS EWD TOWARDS THE COAST. ..EVANS.. 06/14/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 15 07:04:58 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 15 Jun 2004 02:04:58 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200406150704.i5F74e216696@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 150702 SWODY2 SPC AC 150700 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0200 AM CDT TUE JUN 15 2004 VALID 161200Z - 171200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CLE FDY MMO IRK CNU 35 SE PNC CSM AMA RTN PUB 35 NW GLD OLU LSE 10 NE PLN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW SYR 30 S BGM 20 SW JFK ...CONT... 30 SSE VCT 25 WNW TYR 30 NE ADM 45 SSW LTS 45 NE CVS ABQ PRC LAS BIH 35 ENE SAC RNO ENV BPI RWL FCL AKO MHN YKN RST MQT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...UPPER MS VALLEY...AND GREAT LAKES REGION... MAIN BAND OF UPPER FLOW WILL ONCE AGAIN EXTEND ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES REGION ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER EAST TX BECOMES EMBEDDED IN WESTERLY FLOW AND IS EJECTED NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE OH VALLEY. RELATIVELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE MAINTAINED ALONG AN AXIS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO LOWER MI...WHERE STRONG DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OVER 2000 J/KG. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY ALONG SURFACE COLD FRONT FROM NORTHEAST KS INTO CENTRAL WI...SPREADING EASTWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL APPEAR POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. OTHER SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME OVER SOUTHEAST CO/NORTHEAST NM. THESE STORMS MAY PROPAGATE EASTWARD INTO A MUCH MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER TX/KS/OK DURING THE EVENING...WITH A SUSTAINED SEVERE THREAT. ...MID MS VALLEY INTO IND/OH... DEEP/MOIST SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE LOWER/MID MS AND TN VALLEYS WILL RESULT IN WEAK LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL-MODERATE INSTABILITY. BAND OF STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL LIKELY EXTEND FROM EASTERN AR/WESTERN TN INTO IND/OH ON DAY2. COMBINATION OF DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S AND POCKETS OF DAYTIME HEATING INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FOR DOWNBURST WINDS OR PERHAPS A TORNADO ALONG THIS AXIS. ..HART.. 06/15/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 15 17:16:22 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 15 Jun 2004 12:16:22 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200406151716.i5FHG6220099@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 151713 SWODY2 SPC AC 151711 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1211 PM CDT TUE JUN 15 2004 VALID 161200Z - 171200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW RFD IRK CNU 35 SE PNC CSM AMA RTN PUB 35 NW GLD 30 WNW SUX 30 WNW RST 25 SSW CWA 30 NE MSN 40 SW RFD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSE ALI 35 SE HDO 10 N SEP 50 SE SPS 25 WSW SPS 65 NE BGS 50 SW LBB 70 SSE LVS 25 S GNT 45 SE IGM 40 NNW DAG 45 N BFL 15 E MER 40 WSW TVL 35 NE RNO 45 WNW ENV 30 SSW BPI 35 WNW RWL FCL 30 WNW AKO 35 ESE SNY 15 SSW ANW 25 SW BKX 25 SSW STC 50 SE DLH 20 NE CMX ...CONT... 40 SW MSS 15 SW GFL 10 NNW JFK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NNW DVL 50 W P24 70 W MLS 10 E BZN 60 N 27U 20 S S06 75 ENE 63S. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO SWRN WI... ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO GREAT LAKES... DEEP LAYER FLOW ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE COUNTRY HAS GRADUALLY WEAKENED WITH THE STRONGEST CURRENT OF WLY FLOW ACROSS THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER. A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG SEWD ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON FORCING PRESSURES TO RISE ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES...DRIVING A COLD FRONT DEEP INTO THE TX PANHANDLE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS FRONTAL ZONE WILL LIKELY SERVE AS AN INITIATOR FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...BOTH LATE DAY1...AND AGAIN ON DAY2. LATE DAY1 ACTIVITY MAY EVOLVE INTO AN MCS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BEFORE PROPAGATING INTO THE MID MS VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS CLUSTER OF STORMS MAY REGENERATE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN NEB/IA. OTHERWISE...RELATIVELY WEAK LARGE SCALE FORCING AND MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL RESULT IN DIURNALLY MORE ACTIVE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME HAIL OR WIND...MAINLY ALONG THE SWD-MOVING FRONTAL ZONE. ...TN/OH VALLEYS... WRN GULF COAST UPPER LOW WILL SHEAR NEWD DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY. THIS FEATURE WILL AUGMENT THE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT ACROSS AN INCREASINGLY MOIST TROPICAL AIRMASS...CHARACTERIZED BY 70+ SFC DEW POINTS BUT MODEST INSTABILITY...SBCAPES ROUGHLY 1500J/KG. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR MAY AID THE PRODUCTION OF SMALL SCALE SUPERCELLS. IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES FOR HIGHER INSTABILITY ALONG A ZONE FROM WRN TN INTO OH THERE MAY BE A NEED TO UPGRADE THIS REGION TO A SLIGHT RISK FOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES. ..DARROW.. 06/15/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 16 07:43:23 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 16 Jun 2004 02:43:23 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200406160743.i5G7hJ200977@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 160741 SWODY2 SPC AC 160740 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0240 AM CDT WED JUN 16 2004 VALID 171200Z - 181200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E SBY CHO JKL MDH BLV PIA MKG 70 SE OSC ...CONT... ART RUT PSM. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CDS AMA RTN COS FCL CYS SNY 50 E GLD DDC END 40 SE OKC SPS CDS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM EFK 30 ENE PWM ...CONT... 40 WNW INL FAR 10 NE RAP CDR 25 SE MHN 20 SSE SUX MCW RHI 25 E MQT ...CONT... 15 ENE GPT JAN TXK SEP 35 NW DRT ...CONT... 60 SE ELP CNM CVS SAF GUP GCN TPH 50 SSW TVL RBL MHS 4LW PDT MSO GTF 75 NE BIL 65 NNW ISN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID MS VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...OH VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER TX/OK IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHWARD AND BECOME EMBEDDED IN STRONGER WESTERLIES ON THURSDAY. BAND OF STRONGER LOW/MID LEVEL WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND INTO NY/PA/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. WIDESPREAD MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS LIKELY TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS THIS REGION...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S AND MLCAPE VALUES OVER 2000 J/KG. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY OVER IND/OH/KY BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND SPREAD EASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN STRONGER CELLS. OTHER ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG THE SURFACE COLD FRONT FROM LOWER MI INTO IL. ...CENTRAL PLAINS... UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN AZ IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS EASTERN CO...WESTERN KS...AND THE TX/OK PANHANDLES. BACKED SURFACE WINDS NORTH OF SURFACE QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL TRANSPORT MOISTURE WESTWARD INTO EASTERN CO/NM...WHERE INITIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED. SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR WILL EXIST FOR THE THREAT OF SUPERCELLS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. STORMS WILL LIKELY SPREAD EASTWARD INTO PARTS OF WESTERN KS/OK DURING THE EVENING. OTHER ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE DOWN THE DRYLINE IN WEST TX ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER...WILL ONLY OUTLOOK LOW PROBABILITIES IN THIS AREA DUE TO WEAKER MID LEVEL WINDS AND MINIMAL UPPER FORCING. ..HART.. 06/16/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 16 17:35:13 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 16 Jun 2004 12:35:13 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200406161734.i5GHYx226997@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 161732 SWODY2 SPC AC 161731 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1231 PM CDT WED JUN 16 2004 VALID 171200Z - 181200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E SBY CHO CRW HTS LEX BWG CKV PAH MDH SLO CMI BEH LAN 50 NE MTC ...CONT... ART RUT 20 SSW BOS 30 E BID. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM RTN TAD PUB COS DEN FCL CYS 40 NNE CYS BFF 50 ENE SNY CNK 35 ESE SLN ICT 30 NW END SPS CDS RTN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 E PSX CLL GGG TXK PGO DUA ABI BGS 90 SSE MRF ...CONT... 85 SSW GDP CNM 60 WSW CVS LVS DRO CEZ PGA 45 SSW SGU TPH TVL RBL MHS LMT PDT LWS MSO 35 NNW HLN 3HT 60 ENE BIL MLS GDV 70 NNE ISN ...CONT... 45 WNW INL FAR MBG RAP CDR MHN BUB OFK FOD LSE CWA ESC 45 N APN ...CONT... MSS PBG PWM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS SRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OH VALLEY TO MID ATLANTIC AND SWRN NEW ENGLAND... ...SYNOPSIS... MEAN MID-UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN POSITIVELY TILTED FROM N-CENTRAL CANADA SWWD ACROSS PACIFIC NW REGION...WITH SEVERAL TRANSIENT SHORTWAVES MOVING EWD/ENEWD ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS. STRONGEST OF THESE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER CENTRAL ALTA...IS EXPECTED TO TURN SEWD ACROSS SRN SASK AND NRN MT BY 18/00Z. ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS MT AND ND...WITH FRONTAL-WAVE LOW NEAR ND/CANADA BORDER. SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT -- NOW ANALYZED FROM ERN CO NEWD ACROSS NWRN IA -- SHOULD BECOME QUASISTATIONARY BY START OF PERIOD OVER ERN CO AND KS...STRONGLY INFLUENCED ON MESOSCALE BY DAY-1 CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS. MEANWHILE...MOST OF MID/UPPER PERTURBATION NOW OVER ARKLATEX REGION WILL EJECT NEWD AND BECOME ELONGATED/EMBEDDED IN PREVAILING WLYS ACROSS OH VALLEY REGION AND NERN STATES THROUGHOUT PERIOD. PRIMARY VORTICITY CENTER WITH THIS FEATURE IS PROGGED TO ACCELERATE NEWD FROM AR ACROSS WV...WITH TRAILING/WEAK LOBE BACK TOWARD AR. ...OH VALLEY TO NERN STATES... ONE OR TWO WEAK FRONTAL-WAVE LOWS MAY DEVELOP ALONG EWD EXTENSION OF BAROCLINIC ZONE -- FROM IL TO NY. THIS FRONT WILL BE A PRINCIPAL FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL DAY-2...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL POSSIBLE. GREATEST INSTABILITY WILL BE FROM EARLY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH MLCAPE IN 800-1500 J/KG RANGE. PLUME OF LOW-MIDDLE LEVEL MOISTURE AND SLIGHTLY ENHANCED ASCENT ALOFT --- ASSOCIATED WITH LOW-LATITUDE SYSTEM NOW OVER ARKLATEX -- SHOULD SPREAD EWD ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF OUTLOOK AREA DURING DAY. RELATIVELY WEAK CAPPING SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TSTMS IN CLUSTERS. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE NOT FCST TO BE VERY STRONG -- AMIDST EARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP-LAYER FLOW AND MIDLEVEL WINDS 20-30 KT. HOWEVER...THIS REGIME CAN FAVOR FORWARD-PROPAGATING BOWS OR LEWPS GIVEN PRESENCE OF FRONTAL FORCING AND MARGINAL TO MDT INSTABILITY. ...SRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... TSTMS ARE FCST TO DEVELOP AND BECOME SEVERE DURING AFTERNOON FROM SERN WY INTO NERN CO -- SPECIFICALLY OVER ERN-MOST MOUNTAIN RANGES AND ADJACENT CYS/PALMER RIDGES. ADDITIONAL TSTMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG DRYLINE FROM KS/CO BORDER REGION INTO TX PANHANDLE. AFTERNOON ACTIVITY SHOULD EVOLVE EWD INTO PORTIONS WRN/CENTRAL KS OR WRN OK IN FORM OF ONE OR TWO EVENING/NOCTURNAL MCS CLUSTERS WITH SEVERE GUSTS/HAIL POSSIBLE. TORNADO THREAT SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED WITH 1. ANY UPSLOPE SUPERCELLS INTERACTING WITH FRONTAL ZONE...AND 2. DISCRETE SUPERCELLS THAT FORM ALONG DRYLINE AND SURVIVE INTO DEEPER MOIST LAYER 50-100 NM FARTHER E. STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW...MOIST ADVECTION...CONVERGENCE AND SRH ALL WILL BE MAXIMIZED ALONG AND JUST N OF EFFECTIVE FRONT...WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL BE MOST STRONGLY BACKED. THEREFORE GREATEST SEVERE POTENTIAL -- INCLUDING SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND AND PERHAPS TORNADOES -- IS STRONGLY TIED TO PLACEMENT OF CORRIDOR OF POSTFRONTAL ELY/UPSLOPE COMPONENT. THIS IN TURN DEPENDS ON EFFECTS OF DAY-1 CONVECTION. ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS TO FRONTAL PLACEMENT AND WHICH AREA OF INITIAL CONVECTION -- UPSLOPE OR DRYLINE -- WILL BECOME PREDOMINANT MCS...SO THAT THE OUTLOOK IS DRAWN TO ALLOW FOR EITHER POSSIBILITY. ...ND... WIDELY SCATTERED TO ISOLATED TSTMS POSSIBLE MAINLY FROM MID-AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING...WITH MARGINAL SEVERE POTENTIAL. ACTIVITY WILL BE IN REGIME OF LOW LEVEL FRONTAL LIFT AND LARGE SCALE DESTABILIZATION ALOFT...AHEAD OF SASK/MT TROUGH. MODIFIED FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE ACTIVITY WILL BE STRONGLY TIED TO LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY ENHANCEMENT FROM DIABATIC HEATING...AND SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER DARK. WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW AND SHEAR...AND LACK OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL SFC MOISTURE...SHOULD PRECLUDE MORE SIGNIFICANT/ORGANIZED EVENT. HOWEVER...HAIL AND A FEW STRONG GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE. ..EDWARDS.. 06/16/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 17 07:34:30 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 17 Jun 2004 02:34:30 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200406170734.i5H7YJ225124@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 170731 SWODY2 SPC AC 170730 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0230 AM CDT THU JUN 17 2004 VALID 181200Z - 191200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM LTS AMA RTN COS 20 WSW AKO 25 ESE IML 35 E LNK 35 WNW OTM 35 NNW CGX 40 SE AZO 20 SSE DAY 25 E SDF 10 WNW PAH HRO 55 NNE ADM LTS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE GPT MLU DAL BGS 25 SW P07 ...CONT... 15 S ELP ROW TCC 40 N LVS 45 N GUP BCE TPH BIH FAT SAC MHS RDM ALW 50 SSW S06 DLN WRL BFF BUB FOD LSE MTW HTL 10 ENE OSC ...CONT... SSI 35 WNW CTY. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MS VALLEY... BAND OF STRONG WESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS...ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY...INTO NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. MAIN SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE IS EXPECTED TO LIE FROM KS ACROSS CENTRAL IL INTO LOWER MI. VERY MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OH VALLEY. TWO AREAS OF ENHANCED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY APPEAR LIKELY ON DAY2. ...CENTRAL PLAINS... SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN SIMILAR TO LAST FEW DAYS OVER EASTERN CO/WESTERN KS...WITH MODERATELY STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS. MODELS ONCE AGAIN DEPICT WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER THE PLAINS AND FOOTHILLS OF EASTERN CO...SPREADING EASTWARD INTO WESTERN KS/OK DURING THE EVENING. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/KG WILL FAVOR INITIAL SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WITH A RISK OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. STORMS SHOULD ORGANIZE INTO AN MCS AND TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS KS/OK OVERNIGHT WITH A PERSISTENT DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL. ...MID MS AND OH VALLEYS... UPPER SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MID MS AND OH VALLEYS ON FRIDAY. CONVECTIVE CLUSTER REMNANT FROM DAY2 MAY BE ONGOING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER MO/IA DURING THE MORNING. THESE STORMS MAY RE-INTENSIFY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS IL/IND. DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS. ...UPPER OH VALLEY INTO MID ATLANTIC REGION... STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER OH VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC REGION ON FRIDAY. NO DISCERNABLE UPPER FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THIS REGION UNTIL AFTER DARK...SUGGESTING THAT DAYTIME THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED. HOWEVER...VERTICAL SHEAR AND THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL IN ISOLATED STORMS THAT CAN FORM. ..HART.. 06/17/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 18 07:37:51 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 18 Jun 2004 02:37:51 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200406180738.i5I7ca217759@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 180736 SWODY2 SPC AC 180734 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0234 AM CDT FRI JUN 18 2004 VALID 191200Z - 201200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE COS 35 WSW LAR 30 E RIW 45 SSE BIL 15 NNW 4BQ 10 E RAP 35 SSW MHN 15 SSE DHT 40 NNE HOB 30 S ROW 40 NNW ROW 35 ESE LVS 20 SSE COS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NW HVR 80 SW GGW 40 WNW Y22 50 NW AXN 25 NNE MSP 25 NNE ALO 20 NE LWD 20 E MHK 30 SE ICT 15 SE TUL 55 N LIT 20 NW ARG 35 SE VIH ALN 20 NNW BMG 30 NNW UNI 35 NNW CXY 45 SE UCA 35 ENE MSS ...CONT... 40 W ELP 40 SSE LVS 30 W PUB 40 NW 4FC 55 NW CAG 45 NE U24 ELY 30 SSE EKO 25 NW MLD 10 NW IDA 10 SSW 27U 30 SSE BKE 45 ENE 4LW 30 ENE SVE 65 N SAC 45 WNW RBL 40 E CEC EUG 10 ENE OLM 35 N 63S. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE CNTRL AND SRN HI PLNS... ...SYNOPSIS... FLAT RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FROM THE SRN PLNS TO S ATLANTIC CST ON SATURDAY...WHILE MODERATE WLY FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE NATION. A SPEED MAX IN CONFLUENT JET PATTERN OVER SRN ONTARIO WILL CROSS QUEBEC AND NRN NEW ENG. IN THE WEST...A PART OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER WA SHOULD SHEAR E ACROSS THE NRN RCKYS AND REACH THE NRN HI PLNS BY 12Z SUNDAY. ...CNTRL/SRN HI PLNS... SURFACE ANTICYCLONE DEVELOPING SWD ACROSS THE PLNS DURING THE NEXT 36 HRS WILL SHUNT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE W TO THE FOOTHILLS OF THE CNTRL AND SRN RCKYS. DESPITE ABSENCE OF ANY IDENTIFIABLE LARGE SCALE FORCING...COMBINATION OF WEAK UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO LOW LEVEL FLOW...MODERATE MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH AFTERNOON HEATING FROM CNTRL/ERN WY SWD INTO ERN CO AND NM. AMPLE /40-50 KT/ DEEP WLY SHEAR...ASSOCIATED WITH THE SRN EDGE OF THE WLYS...WILL BE PRESENT TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL/LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND AND PERHAPS A COUPLE TORNADOES IN WY AND CO. THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR THROUGHOUT THE REGION WILL LIKELY BE RELATIVELY NARROW W/E EXTENT OF SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY AXIS. SOME OF THE CONVECTION MAY CONSOLIDATE INTO AN ELEVATED MCS THAT MOVES E INTO NEB SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR HAIL. FARTHER S IN NM...EXPECT STORMS TO BE MORE DIURNAL AND PULSE IN NATURE...WHERE DEEP SHEAR WILL REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK /AOB 25 KT/. ...UPPER SOUTH... SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP WITH DAYTIME HEATING INVOF WEAKENING COLD FRONT OVER THE TN VLY...WHERE SURFACE-BASED MLCAPE MAY REACH 3000 J/KG...BUT DEEP SHEAR WILL BE WEAK. ...NEW ENG... A FEW STORMS MAY PRECEDE FAST-MOVING IMPULSE CROSSING QUEBEC. BUT WEAK LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SHALLOW CONVERGENCE SHOULD LIMIT STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DESPITE PRESENCE OF FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE ASCENT/DEEP SHEAR. ..CORFIDI.. 06/18/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 18 17:28:23 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 18 Jun 2004 12:28:23 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200406181729.i5IHT6213863@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 181726 SWODY2 SPC AC 181725 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1225 PM CDT FRI JUN 18 2004 VALID 191200Z - 201200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE COS 35 WSW LAR 30 E RIW 35 N WRL 30 NNW GCC 15 WNW RAP 35 SSW MHN 15 SSE DHT 35 WNW INK 35 NW GDP 40 NNW ROW 35 ESE LVS 20 SSE COS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W ELP 50 SSW LVS 30 W PUB 40 NW 4FC 55 NW CAG 45 NE U24 ELY 30 SSE EKO 25 NW MLD 30 N PIH 50 ENE BOI 50 W BOI 45 ENE 4LW 30 ENE SVE 65 N SAC 45 WNW RBL 40 E CEC EUG 10 ENE OLM 35 N 63S ...CONT... 65 NW HVR 80 SW GGW 40 WNW Y22 50 NW AXN 25 NNE MSP 25 NNE ALO 20 NE LWD 20 E MHK 30 SE ICT 15 SE TUL 55 N LIT 20 NW ARG 35 SE VIH ALN 20 NNW BMG 30 NNW UNI 35 NNW CXY 45 SE UCA 35 ENE MSS. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... BAND OF MODEST ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE CONUS. ONE UPPER TROUGH MOVES FROM NEW ENGLAND TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND AN ELONGATED TROUGH/MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY FROM THE NRN ROCKIES WWD TO THE COLUMBIA RIVER VALLEY. PRIMARY SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT WILL PRECEDE LARGE SURFACE ANTICYCLONE SETTLING INTO THE MID WEST/OH VALLEY AND MOVE ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY 2 PERIOD. TRAILING PORTIONS OF THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. FARTHER TO THE WEST...THE FRONT WILL BE QUASISTATIONARY AND ALIGNED SOUTH TO NORTH ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM ERN NM TO WY/MT. MOIST POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW WILL AGAIN AID TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE ERN SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES. ...CNTRL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS... NARROW CORRIDOR OF MODEST INSTABILITY SHOULD AGAIN DEVELOP WITHIN POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME FROM ERN NM N-NWWD INTO CNTRL WY. WLY MID LEVEL FLOW OF 30-50KT WILL MAINTAIN BOTH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THESE REGIONS. INITIAL ACTIVITY WILL MOST LIKELY ACQUIRE SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS WITH A LARGE HAIL AND TORNADO THREAT. EVENTUALLY STORMS MAY MERGE INTO ONE OR TWO COMPLEXES WITH ONE POSSIBLY BECOMING ELEVATED AND SPREADING ESEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS...THE OTHER POSSIBLY BACKBUILDING INTO MOIST AXIS/LLJ ACROSS THE UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. ...TN VALLEY... DESPITE RELATIVELY WEAK LAPSE RATES ACROSS THIS REGION...FRONTAL CIRCULATION MAY SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER STORMS IN VERY MOIST AND AT LEAST MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. PRIMARY HAZARD FROM THIS CONVECTION WILL BE ISOLD TO WIDELY SCATTERED DOWNBURST WINDS. ...MID ATLANTIC... STRONG INSTABILITY IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC COASTAL PLAIN. A FEW INTENSE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND ALONG POSSIBLE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES BY LATE IN THE DAY WITH A SMALL THREAT OF WIND/HAIL. ..CARBIN.. 06/18/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 19 07:35:46 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 19 Jun 2004 02:35:46 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200406190736.i5J7aV223283@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 190734 SWODY2 SPC AC 190733 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0233 AM CDT SAT JUN 19 2004 VALID 201200Z - 211200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE END 15 NE CAO 30 SSE PUB 20 WSW FCL 25 NW DGW 35 ESE 81V 50 SE PHP 35 NNW BUB 25 E LBF 30 WNW CNK 50 ENE MKC 45 NNW POF 15 SW ARG 30 N HOT 15 NE MLC 20 ENE END. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 S GBN 45 SSW INW 45 SE GNT 40 WSW RTN 50 SE GUC 30 NW GJT 50 WSW ENV 15 W OWY 40 NNW SVE 45 NE ACV 30 SE EUG 25 SE AST 25 ENE BLI ...CONT... 10 NE ANJ 35 NNE GRB 50 NE ALO 15 N MMO 30 SSE JXN 25 W CAK 45 WSW EKN 35 WNW GSO 35 ESE AND 25 W ANB 40 SSW MGM 35 SW ABY 20 ENE SSI ...CONT... 35 E PSX 45 SE AUS 10 WNW TPL 10 NNW DUA 25 SW OKC 65 SW SPS 40 NE SJT 70 SSE MAF 30 SE P07. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL PLNS/LWR MO VLY... ...SYNOPSIS... SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL OVER THE LWR 48 ON SUNDAY...DOWNSTREAM FROM PERSISTENT BLOCK OVER THE NRN BC CST. AN IMPULSE IN THE NRN STREAM...NOW OVER THE NW TERRITORIES...WILL DROP S ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN ON SUNDAY BEFORE TURNING SE INTO WRN ONTARIO/NRN MN ON MONDAY. FARTHER S...A SERIES OF COMPARATIVELY WEAKER IMPULSES EMANATING FROM STATIONARY UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NW AND OVER CA WILL SHEAR E/ESE ACROSS THE NRN/CNTRL RCKYS INTO THE CNTRL PLNS. AT LOWER LEVELS...COOL HIGH PRESSURE NOW OVER THE CNTRL PLNS SHOULD EDGE E TO THE MID ATLANTIC CST AS LEE TROUGHING INCREASES OVER THE CNTRL HI PLNS. THIS WILL ALLOW FRONT NOW MOVING S ACROSS OK TO RETURN NWD AS WARM FRONT ACROSS KS AND MO. OVER THE NRN TIER... SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH SASKATCHEWAN IMPULSE WILL TRACK E ACROSS MANITOBA/WRN QUEBEC...AND DRAG A COLD FRONT AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ACROSS THE DAKS AND MN. ...ERN CO/SE WY INTO NEB/KS/MO... AN AREA OF ELEVATED CONVECTION/POSSIBLE MCS MAY BE PRESENT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD IN WARM ADVECTION ZONE N OF RETURNING WARM FRONT IN NRN KS/NEB. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS. A BETTER CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER MAY DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AS SURFACE HEATING AND CONTINUED MOISTURE INFLOW DESTABILIZE REGION ON SRN FRINGE OF MCS ACROSS ERN KS AND WRN MO. SUFFICIENT /40+ KT/ DEEP WNWLY SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT TO SUPPORT BOWING SEGMENTS WITH HIGH WIND/HAIL. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD REACH THE AR BORDER BY EVENING. FARTHER W...ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY FORM WITH AFTERNOON HEATING IN AREA OF WEAK CONVERGENCE AND UPSLOPE FLOW N AND E OF LEE CYCLONE/ TROUGH AXIS FROM SE WY/SW NEB SEWD INTO ERN CO AND WRN KS. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE MODULATED BY DEGREE OF SURFACE HEATING...AND BY PASSING DISTURBANCES IN SRN STREAM FLOW. COMBINATION OF 40 KT WLY MID LEVEL FLOW...LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR INVOF LOW/TROUGH...INCREASING MOISTURE INFLOW AND ABSENCE OF STRONG LINEAR FORCING ALL SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR A FEW DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WITH POSSIBLE TORNADOES....IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL/HIGH WIND. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONSOLIDATE INTO AN MCS OR TWO THAT MOVE E/SE ACROSS NEB/KS SUNDAY NIGHT. ...NRN PLN/UPR MS VLY... WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS...INCLUDING ONE OR TWO SUPERCELLS...MAY FORM WITH AFTERNOON HEATING ALONG PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH CROSSING THE DAKS/MN. LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE STEEP...BUT CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL BE WEAK. ...NRN GRT BASIN... WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY SHEAR AXIS OVER THE NRN GRT BASIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ..CORFIDI.. 06/19/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 19 17:36:28 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 19 Jun 2004 12:36:28 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200406191737.i5JHb8203200@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 191735 SWODY2 SPC AC 191733 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1233 PM CDT SAT JUN 19 2004 VALID 201200Z - 211200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM TAD COS DEN FCL CYS 50 E DGW CDR VTN MHE FSD SUX LNK BIE FLV 30 NNE SZL 40 WNW TBN HRO FSM MLC OKC CSM DHT TAD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM GLS HOU 45 SW TYR DAL FTW SEP DRT ...CONT... DUG SAD 60 NNW SVC ALM ROW CVS 40 NE TCC RTN RKS OWY SVE 25 SW MHS MFR 50 NE BLI ...CONT... 55 ENE MQT RHI EAU RST ALO CID DEC BMG HTS BKW PSK HKY SPA CAE CRE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS TO OZARK REGION... ...SYNOPSIS... SPLIT FLOW WILL CONTINUE IN MID-UPPER LEVELS OVER PACIFIC COAST REGION. LARGELY ZONAL FLOW DOWNSTREAM ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN STATES IS FCST TO BUCKLE SOMEWHAT IN UPPER MIDWEST...AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES SEWD FROM MANITOBA ACROSS MN/ERN SD LATE IN PERIOD. THIS FEATURE NOW IS EVIDENT ON MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY APCHG EXTREME NRN SASK/ALTA FROM POLAR LATITUDES. ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM NWRN ONT ACROSS NRN/WRN MN...CENTRAL/SWRN SD AND SERN WY BY 21/00Z. SEPARATE SFC CYCLONE SHOULD DEEPEN OVER S-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...BETWEEN E-CENTRAL CO AND NRN TX PANHANDLE. MORE PRECISE POSITION DEPENDS STRONGLY ON OUTFLOW EFFECTS OF DAY-1 AND EARLY MORNING CONVECTION. THIS LOW SHOULD LINK WITH SFC COLD FRONT OVER NWRN OK BY END OF PERIOD...AGAIN WITH SOME POSITIONAL UNCERTAINTY BECAUSE OF CONVECTIVE INFLUENCES. MEANWHILE...CONVECTIVELY MODULATED SFC FRONT NOW OVER RED RIVER REGION WILL DRIFT NWD ACROSS PORTIONS OK AND TX PANHANDLE...RESULTING IN TWO LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONES FOR POTENTIAL DAY-2 CONVECTIVE FOCI. ...CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS...OZARKS AFTER DARK... MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL AND STRONG GUSTS MAY ACCOMPANY ONGOING CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL PLAINS...IF OVERNIGHT MCS DEVELOPS DAY-1 AS PROGS INDICATE. HOWEVER...MORE SUBSTANTIVE SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL DEVELOP LATER DURING AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SFC FLOW WILL BE MOST STRONGLY BACKED N THROUGH NE OF SFC LOW AND N OF WARM FRONT DURING AFTERNOON...WITH SIGNIFICANT ELY COMPONENT SUPPORTING UPSLOPE MOIST ADVECTION. ETA FCSTS ONLY 5-10 KT FLOW THROUGH FIRST 200-300 MB AGL. HOWEVER...PRIND ISALLOBARIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH CYCLONE WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF 10-20 KT WINDS IN BOUNDARY LAYER...ENLARGING 0-3 KM AGL HODOGRAPH ENOUGH TO SUPPORT STORM ROTATION WITH 150-300 J/KG SRH. SFC LAYER ELYS WILL COMBINE WITH AROUND 30 KT MIDLEVEL FLOW TO RESULT IN DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ALSO FAVORABLE FOR AFTERNOON SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS REGION. MOST PROBABLE INITIATION LOCATIONS ARE FAVORED AREAS OF OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED ASCENT SUCH AS RATON MESA OR PALMER RIDGE. MORE CONDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR INVOF DRYLINE OVER TX PANHANDLE...DIRECTLY ALONG WARM FRONT E OF SFC LOW. 8-9 DEG C MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AFTERNOON MLCAPE 2000-3000 J/KG AWAY FROM OUTFLOW POOLS. ONE OR TWO MCS MAY EVOLVE FROM THIS ACTIVITY OR DEVELOP SEPARATELY TO ITS E...SUPPORTED BY MOIST 40-50 KT LLJ AFTER 21/03Z. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE EWD ACROSS KS AND/OR NRN/CENTRAL OK TOWARD OZARKS WITH POTENTIAL FOR INTERMITTENT WIND DAMAGE AND MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL. ...CENTRAL LOW PLAINS TO UPPER MIDWEST... AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING CONVECTION ALSO MAY FORM INVOF SFC COLD FRONT NEWD ACROSS SRN/ERN NEB INTO MN...BUT WITH MORE MARGINAL/CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT BECAUSE OF WEAKER THETAE IN INFLOW LAYER. BECAUSE OF STRENGTHENING MIDLEVEL GRADIENT FLOW AHEAD OF NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH...DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES FAVOR SUPERCELLS...A FEW OF WHICH MAY DEVELOP IN BRIEF WINDOW DURING LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WITH HAIL POSSIBLE. ..EDWARDS.. 06/19/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 20 07:36:14 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 20 Jun 2004 02:36:14 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200406200737.i5K7bj210903@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 200735 SWODY2 SPC AC 200733 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0233 AM CDT SUN JUN 20 2004 VALID 211200Z - 221200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE SPS 20 SE BGS 40 ESE HOB 20 N CVS 30 E LVS 30 NE ALS 40 NNW LHX 30 NNE EHA 35 E EMP 30 SSW TBN 10 ESE MDH 15 SW BWG 35 WNW MSL 15 S TXK 20 ENE SPS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NW ROC 20 NNE FKL 15 NNE AOO 20 ESE AVP 20 SW GON ...CONT... 25 WSW 7R4 50 N POE 35 NW FTW 20 NNE SJT 30 WNW DRT ...CONT... 50 WSW FHU 30 N DUG 40 E DMN 15 W GDP 35 SE ROW 60 ENE 4CR 20 WSW LVS 50 SSE GUC 40 W ASE 45 E VEL 30 S BPI 40 WNW RIW 20 E CPR 40 ENE CYS 35 WSW IML 35 SSW EAR 10 WNW OMA 10 ENE FOD 35 E EAU 45 ENE IWD 110 N CMX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NE CTB 25 NNE HLN 27U 35 SW LWS 55 ENE RDM 15 SSW 4LW 30 S NFL 25 WSW BIH 20 SE SCK 45 E EKA 40 SE OTH 30 E AST 20 NE BLI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL/SRN PLNS AND OZARKS... ...SYNOPSIS... SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE NATION ON MONDAY AS RIDGE HOLDS FIRM ALONG THE NRN BC CST AND HUDSON BAY LOW RETROGRESSES W TOWARD THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. FARTHER S...MAIN PART OF TROUGH NOW OVER THE PAC NW WILL SHEAR E/SE ACROSS THE CNTRL RCKYS AND JOIN FORCES WITH A NRN STREAM IMPULSE /THE ONE NOW OVER SASKATCHEWAN-MANITOBA/...TO RESULT IN A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE PLNS/MS VLY BY 12Z TUESDAY. AT LOWER LEVELS...FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH CANADIAN DISTURBANCE SHOULD REACH THE UPR GRT LKS/MID MS VLY AND CNTRL PLNS MONDAY AFTERNOON. OF GREATER SIGNIFICANCE TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THIS PERIOD... HOWEVER...WILL BE WEAKER BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO EXIST FARTHER S...FROM THE OK/TX PANHANDLE REGION E/NE INTO SRN MO. THIS FEATURE...MARKING IN PART /1/ OLD FRONTAL SURGE ASSOCIATED WITH PREVIOUS SRN STREAM IMPULSE AND /2/ CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW FROM CURRENT WRN KS MCS AND LATER DAY ONE ACTIVITY...WILL LIKELY SERVE AS MAIN FOCUS FOR STRONG STORM DEVELOPMENT ON MONDAY. ...SE CO/ERN NM EWD INTO OK/SRN KS AND THE MO/AR OZARKS... A STRONG TO POSSIBLY MARGINALLY SEVERE MCS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD N OF WEAK FRONT OVER SRN KS...WHERE LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND MOISTURE INFLOW WILL BE MAXIMIZED ALONG FRINGE OF SRN STREAM JET. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE GENERALLY E/SE INTO PARTS OF OK/SRN MO AND NRN AR LATER IN THE DAY...WITH INTENSIFICATION LIKELY AS DAYTIME HEATING BOOSTS MLCAPE TO AOA 2000 J/KG. LINEAR FORCING ALONG CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW AND 40-45 KT DEEP WNWLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH 35-40 KT SRN STREAM JET SHOULD SUPPORT EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND BOWING SEGMENTS WITH HAIL/HIGH WIND. DIURNAL WEAKENING OF CAP MAY ALSO ALLOW FOR BACK-BUILDING OF ACTIVITY WWD ACROSS CNTRL AND WRN OK...WHERE STRENGTH OF DEEP SHEAR AND BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S COULD SUPPORT A COUPLE TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO HAIL/HIGH WIND. FARTHER W/NW...WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW AND COOL AIR ALOFT MAY ALSO SUPPORT SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS WITH HAIL ACROSS FAR SE CO/ERN NM AND THE OK/TX PANHANDLES. ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONSOLIDATE INTO A LARGE MCS THAT DROPS SE TOWARD THE RED RIVER MONDAY NIGHT. ..CORFIDI.. 06/20/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 20 07:36:14 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 20 Jun 2004 02:36:14 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200406200738.i5K7cW211436@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 200735 SWODY2 SPC AC 200733 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0233 AM CDT SUN JUN 20 2004 VALID 211200Z - 221200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE SPS 20 SE BGS 40 ESE HOB 20 N CVS 30 E LVS 30 NE ALS 40 NNW LHX 30 NNE EHA 35 E EMP 30 SSW TBN 10 ESE MDH 15 SW BWG 35 WNW MSL 15 S TXK 20 ENE SPS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NW ROC 20 NNE FKL 15 NNE AOO 20 ESE AVP 20 SW GON ...CONT... 25 WSW 7R4 50 N POE 35 NW FTW 20 NNE SJT 30 WNW DRT ...CONT... 50 WSW FHU 30 N DUG 40 E DMN 15 W GDP 35 SE ROW 60 ENE 4CR 20 WSW LVS 50 SSE GUC 40 W ASE 45 E VEL 30 S BPI 40 WNW RIW 20 E CPR 40 ENE CYS 35 WSW IML 35 SSW EAR 10 WNW OMA 10 ENE FOD 35 E EAU 45 ENE IWD 110 N CMX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NE CTB 25 NNE HLN 27U 35 SW LWS 55 ENE RDM 15 SSW 4LW 30 S NFL 25 WSW BIH 20 SE SCK 45 E EKA 40 SE OTH 30 E AST 20 NE BLI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL/SRN PLNS AND OZARKS... ...SYNOPSIS... SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE NATION ON MONDAY AS RIDGE HOLDS FIRM ALONG THE NRN BC CST AND HUDSON BAY LOW RETROGRESSES W TOWARD THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. FARTHER S...MAIN PART OF TROUGH NOW OVER THE PAC NW WILL SHEAR E/SE ACROSS THE CNTRL RCKYS AND JOIN FORCES WITH A NRN STREAM IMPULSE /THE ONE NOW OVER SASKATCHEWAN-MANITOBA/...TO RESULT IN A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE PLNS/MS VLY BY 12Z TUESDAY. AT LOWER LEVELS...FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH CANADIAN DISTURBANCE SHOULD REACH THE UPR GRT LKS/MID MS VLY AND CNTRL PLNS MONDAY AFTERNOON. OF GREATER SIGNIFICANCE TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THIS PERIOD... HOWEVER...WILL BE WEAKER BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO EXIST FARTHER S...FROM THE OK/TX PANHANDLE REGION E/NE INTO SRN MO. THIS FEATURE...MARKING IN PART /1/ OLD FRONTAL SURGE ASSOCIATED WITH PREVIOUS SRN STREAM IMPULSE AND /2/ CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW FROM CURRENT WRN KS MCS AND LATER DAY ONE ACTIVITY...WILL LIKELY SERVE AS MAIN FOCUS FOR STRONG STORM DEVELOPMENT ON MONDAY. ...SE CO/ERN NM EWD INTO OK/SRN KS AND THE MO/AR OZARKS... A STRONG TO POSSIBLY MARGINALLY SEVERE MCS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD N OF WEAK FRONT OVER SRN KS...WHERE LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND MOISTURE INFLOW WILL BE MAXIMIZED ALONG FRINGE OF SRN STREAM JET. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE GENERALLY E/SE INTO PARTS OF OK/SRN MO AND NRN AR LATER IN THE DAY...WITH INTENSIFICATION LIKELY AS DAYTIME HEATING BOOSTS MLCAPE TO AOA 2000 J/KG. LINEAR FORCING ALONG CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW AND 40-45 KT DEEP WNWLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH 35-40 KT SRN STREAM JET SHOULD SUPPORT EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND BOWING SEGMENTS WITH HAIL/HIGH WIND. DIURNAL WEAKENING OF CAP MAY ALSO ALLOW FOR BACK-BUILDING OF ACTIVITY WWD ACROSS CNTRL AND WRN OK...WHERE STRENGTH OF DEEP SHEAR AND BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S COULD SUPPORT A COUPLE TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO HAIL/HIGH WIND. FARTHER W/NW...WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW AND COOL AIR ALOFT MAY ALSO SUPPORT SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS WITH HAIL ACROSS FAR SE CO/ERN NM AND THE OK/TX PANHANDLES. ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONSOLIDATE INTO A LARGE MCS THAT DROPS SE TOWARD THE RED RIVER MONDAY NIGHT. ..CORFIDI.. 06/20/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 20 17:29:26 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 20 Jun 2004 12:29:26 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200406201730.i5KHU2224332@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 201727 SWODY2 SPC AC 201726 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1226 PM CDT SUN JUN 20 2004 VALID 211200Z - 221200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DAL 25 SSE BGS 40 ESE HOB TCC 30 S RTN 15 ESE TAD 40 SSW LAA LBL OJC 45 NW STL 45 NNE EVV BNA 40 S MSL TXK DAL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE CRP VCT 25 WNW HOU 30 NE LCH BTR 25 WSW MCB 25 NNW HEZ 20 SSE SHV ACT 30 NW JCT 30 WNW DRT ...CONT... 65 SSW MRF 20 WSW ROW LVS GUC MLF 60 SE TVL 55 W RBL OTH 45 ENE BLI ...CONT... 60 NE CTB HLN 50 SSW S80 45 ESE BNO OWY MLD 50 NW LND WRL 60 SSE 81V CDR LBF OFK SPW 30 WNW EAU 30 NE CMX ...CONT... 55 W ART 40 NE BFD IPT 30 W BDR 25 S GON. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 S GBN 40 NNW TUS SAD SVC 40 W ELP. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS EWD INTO THE WRN LOWER OH/TN VALLEYS... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE PACIFIC NW NWD INTO WRN CANADA...WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH SITUATED OVER CENTRAL CANADA SWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY. A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH... MOVING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE...WILL AMPLIFY THE CANADIAN TROUGH SWD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MID MS RIVER VALLEY DURING THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE AMPLIFYING TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY...WILL REACH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES/MID MS VLY AND CENTRAL/SRN PLNS MONDAY AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME TIME...A WEAK BOUNDARY/WARM FRONT IS ALSO EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM THE TX PANHANDLE/WRN OK EWD INTO NRN AR. ...SERN CO/NERN NM EWD ACROSS OK... OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM CONVECTION TONIGHT AND LEFTOVER CLOUDS MAY SLOW DOWN HEATING AND INHIBIT DESTABILIZATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER 65-70 DEGREE DEWPOINTS ALONG WITH 8-9C/KM MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NEAR 90 DEGREES WILL RESULT IN MLCAPES FROM 2500-3500 J/KG BY LATE AFTERNOON. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD THROUGH THE TX PANHANDLE/NWRN OK AND WEAK BOUNDARY FROM THE WRN OK INTO NRN AR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE STORMS BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE 10-15 KT OR LESS IN THE LOWER 3 KM...DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 35 KT AND THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS AND SEVERE HAIL. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW SUFFICIENT TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER FOR SOME DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS. STORM OUTFLOWS ARE LIKELY TO ORGANIZE INTO AN MCS AND TRACK ESEWD INTO PORTIONS OF NRN TX/WRN AR OVERNIGHT WITH A WIND THREAT STILL POSSIBLE. MODELS SUGGEST OTHER STORMS WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SERN CO/NERN NM MONDAY EVENING. THOUGH THIS AREA WILL BE BEHIND THE FRONT...UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD PROVIDE FAVORABLE LIFT FOR CONVECTION. DAYTIME HEATING AND STEEP LAPSE RATES SHOULD RESULT IN MLCAPES FROM 1000-1500 J/KG. DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS AND 30-40 KT WNWLY FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN THESE STORMS EVOLVING QUICKLY INTO AN MCS...WITH SEVERE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE TX/OK PANHANDLES MONDAY NIGHT. ...SERN KS/NERN OK EWD INTO SRN IL/WRN KY/WRN TN AND WRN AL... A STRONG TO POSSIBLY MARGINALLY SEVERE MCS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD OVER ERN KS...WHERE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET/THETA-E ADVECTION WILL BE MAXIMIZED. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE E/SEWD INTO PARTS OF NERN OK/WRN MO DURING THE MORNING AND THEN TOWARD THE WRN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER OH/TN VALLEYS DURING THE AFTERNOON. MODELS SUGGEST STORMS WILL BE MAINTAINED BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND INTENSIFICATION IS LIKELY AS DAYTIME HEATING BOOSTS MLCAPE VALUES TO AOA 2000 J/KG. LINEAR FORCING ALONG CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW AND 30-40 WLY MID LEVEL FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT BOWING SEGMENTS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME HAIL. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD WEAKEN AS THE STORMS REACH THE ERN END OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON ...WHERE THE INSTABILITY SHOULD BE WEAKER THAN AREAS TO THE WEST. ..IMY.. 06/20/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 21 07:43:28 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 21 Jun 2004 02:43:28 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200406210744.i5L7i3225102@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 210741 SWODY2 SPC AC 210740 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0240 AM CDT MON JUN 21 2004 VALID 221200Z - 231200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NE HSE 25 WSW RDU 55 NNW AHN 15 WSW GWO 40 SE PGO 10 ENE HRO 30 SSW SDF 35 E PKB 40 S UCA 15 NW PSF 15 E ISP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SSW GBN 40 WNW PHX INW 30 ENE GUP 25 WSW ALS 35 W COS 35 W LAR 35 NNW BPI 55 S 27U 40 SSW BKE 45 NE 4LW 50 ENE SVE 45 S NFL 60 NE MER 15 E SAC 25 WNW RBL 30 WNW MFR 10 S SLE 25 ESE OLM 20 ENE BLI ...CONT... 25 NNW ANJ 15 W OSH 25 E ALO 30 ENE OMA 40 NE MCK 50 E LAA 60 NE AMA 30 E OKC 30 WNW JLN 20 NNW BMG 25 ENE MFD 20 NW BUF ...CONT... 40 ENE CRP 10 SSW LRD. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE TN VLY/LWR MS VLY E/NE TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES... ...SYNOPSIS... AN UNUSUALLY BLOCKY PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS NOAM THIS PERIOD...AS UPPER RIDGES PERSIST OVER BOTH WRN CANADA AND THE DAVIS STRAIT. SLIGHT RETROGRESSION OF THE LATTER BLOCK WILL DRIVE STRONG POLAR IMPULSE NOW IN NUNAVUT SWD ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN/ MANITOBA LATER TODAY. THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE E/SE ACROSS WRN ONTARIO AND NRN MN ON TUESDAY...WHERE IT WILL SERVE TO MAINTAIN A BROAD SWATH OF CYCLONIC FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE NRN AND ERN U.S. FARTHER S...THE LAST IN A SERIES OF SRN STREAM DISTURBANCES ORIGINATING IN THE NRN GRT BASIN WILL TRACK E ACROSS THE TN VLY...AND PARTIALLY PHASE WITH NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW ENTERING THE NRN PLNS. THE COMBINED SYSTEM SHOULD REACH THE NRN/CNTRL APPALACHIANS BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. ...LWR MS/TN VLYS E/NE TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES... A CLUSTER OR TWO OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD OVER PARTS OF OK AND AR...IN WARM ADVECTION AREA DOWNSTREAM FROM AFOREMENTIONED SRN STREAM IMPULSE. WHILE LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD WEAKEN AS UPPER IMPULSE IS ABSORBED IN CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT...THE STORMS SHOULD MOVE/DEVELOP EWD INTO THE TN VLY LATER IN THE DAY...BEING DRIVEN LARGELY BY SURFACE HEATING AND CONVERGENCE ALONG CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW. COMBINATION OF FAIRLY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES /APCHG 7 DEG C PER KM/...RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE INFLOW /DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S/ AND MODERATE /30 KT/ UNIDIRECTIONAL WSWLY MEAN FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT ORGANIZED BANDS OF STORMS WITH BOWING SEGMENTS/LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT. FARTHER NE...EXPECT THAT LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ON THE WHOLE WILL BE SOMEWHAT WEAKER FROM THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS TO THE MID ATLANTIC CST...WHERE LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND CONTINUED LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO ABUNDANT CLOUDS. ONE EXCEPTION MIGHT BE IN THE LEE OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS ACROSS CNTRL PORTIONS OF MD/VA...WHERE MEAN WLY FLOW SHOULD TEND TO SCOUR RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. SURFACE HEATING...CONVERGENCE ALONG COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH PHASING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...AND WEAK LARGE SCALE ASCENT MAY SUFFICIENTLY DESTABILIZE REGION TO SUPPORT STORM DEVELOPMENT BY MID AFTERNOON FROM WRN PARTS OF NC NWD INTO SRN/ERN PA. BAND OF 40-50 KT WSWLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AMPLE DEEP SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORMS/SUPERCELLS...IF SUSTAINED ACTIVITY DOES INDEED DEVELOP. LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL EVEN BE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES ALONG LEE TROUGH FROM ERN VA NEWD INTO ERN PA/NJ... ASSUMING STORMS ARE ABLE TO REMAIN DISCRETE. WHILE IT APPEARS ATTM THAT WEAK INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY LIMIT COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF SEVERE THREAT IN THE EAST...ESPECIALLY N OF MD...THERE WILL EXIST AT LEAST A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR HIGH WIND AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR TWO IF SUSTAINED STORMS DO INDEED FORM. GIVEN LIMITED INSTABILITY...ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH WITH SUNSET. ...UPR MS VLY/UPR GRT LKS... STRONG LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF POTENT IMPULSE DROPPING S FROM MANITOBA...COUPLED WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AND PREFRONTAL TROUGH...MAY YIELD A BAND OF LOW-TOPPED STORMS IN AXIS OF STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM ERN SD INTO MN/NRN WI. LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABILITY /DEWPOINTS AROUND 50/ WILL PROBABLY PRECLUDE A WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT...BUT ISOLATED STORMS COULD YIELD HIGH WIND AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ..CORFIDI.. 06/21/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 21 17:40:02 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 21 Jun 2004 12:40:02 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200406211740.i5LHee219425@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 211738 SWODY2 SPC AC 211736 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1236 PM CDT MON JUN 21 2004 VALID 221200Z - 231200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NE HSE 25 WSW RDU 55 NNW AHN 15 WSW GWO 40 SE PGO 10 ENE HRO 30 SSW SDF 10 ENE HLG SYR SLK MPV CON 15 E ISP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW ANJ OSH ALO SUX ANW AIA SNY 50 E LAA BVO UMN CGI LUK CMH ERI ...CONT... 40 ENE CRP 10 SSW LRD ...CONT... 35 WSW FHU TUS 40 NE TUS SOW INW 60 NE INW DRO 10 SE GUC 10 ESE CAG LND DLN S80 PDT RDM 60 NNE LMT MFR EUG PDX 25 ESE OLM 20 ENE BLI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LOWER MS/TN VALLEYS INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES.... MODELS INDICATE BLOCKED UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD AND BEYOND. EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS REGIME...MOST SIGNIFICANT FEATURE TO INFLUENCE THE U.S. APPEARS LIKELY TO BE DEEP CLOSED LOW NOW EVOLVING OVER THE CENTRAL CANADIAN PROVINCES. COLD MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY DEVELOP SOUTHWARD ACROSS MANITOBA TUESDAY...WITH SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS/JET STREAKS ROTATING AROUND ITS WESTERN/SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. IN BROADER CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW REGIME TO THE SOUTH/EAST OF THIS FEATURE... ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO ACCELERATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY REGION. A COUPLE OF WEAKER BELTS OF WESTERLIES WILL PREVAIL OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER STATES...ONE CURVING OUT OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...THE OTHER CURVING AROUND NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE GULF/SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES. ...LOWER GREAT LAKES/UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO NEW ENGLAND... IN ASSOCIATION WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH...MODELS INDICATE 50 TO 70 KT JET STREAK SPREADING ACROSS WARM SECTOR AIR MASS OVER THE UPPER OHIO/HUDSON VALLEY REGION DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS TUESDAY. STRONGER LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP EASTWARD AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...AND LINGERING CLOUD COVER IN ITS WAKE PROVIDES SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO SURFACE HEATING AND MAGNITUDE OF DESTABILIZATION ACROSS NEW YORK/PENNSYLVANIA. HOWEVER...WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS INCREASING THROUGH THE LOWER/MID 60S...ENOUGH INSOLATION APPEARS POSSIBLE TO CONTRIBUTE TO MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG. THIS DESTABILIZATION WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN MODERATE TO STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. STRONG DAMAGING WIND GUSTS APPEAR LIKELY IN FAST MOVING STORMS...WHICH SHOULD ORGANIZE IN SEVERAL SMALL LINES OR CLUSTERS...WITH LARGE HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE IN STRONGEST CELLS. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD FROM THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS MID TUESDAY AFTERNOON...INTO PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE NORTHERN/MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS BEFORE DIMINISHING TUESDAY EVENING. ...GULF COAST STATES/LWR MS VLY/TENNESSEE VALLEYS... MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE LARGE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS/RED RIVER VALLEY EARLY IN THE PERIOD. ACTIVITY LIKELY WILL WEAKEN DURING THE MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER/MID 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN TIER STATES...MOIST/POTENTIALLY VERY BUOYANT AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT RISK FOR RE-GENERATION OF ONE OR MORE CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS. BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE WITH REMNANT JET STREAK/CYCLONIC VORTICITY CENTER WHICH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD OUT OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY MORNING...INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THOUGH HAIL THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL...ENHANCED LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW MAY CONTRIBUTE TO POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUST FRONT FROM THE PEAK HEATING HOURS INTO MID EVENING. OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ADVANCING SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER INTO EAST TEXAS COULD BECOME FOCUS FOR ANOTHER CLUSTER OF STORMS. FLOW FIELDS WILL BE MUCH WEAKER ACROSS THIS AREA...BUT RELATIVELY DRY MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT MAY CONTRIBUTE TO POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS. ...UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... AREA OF STRONGER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF DIGGING JET STREAK WILL CONTRIBUTE TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON FROM PARTS OF THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. ALTHOUGH SURFACE DEW POINTS MAY ONLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S INTO LOWER 50S...COLD THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES AND FAVORABLY SHEARED FLOW REGIME MAY BE SUPPORTIVE OF HAIL/GUSTY WINDS IN STRONGER STORMS. ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP EASTWARD INTO PARTS OF WISCONSIN BEFORE WEAKENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING DURING THE EVENING HOURS. ..KERR.. 06/21/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 22 17:38:59 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 22 Jun 2004 12:38:59 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200406221739.i5MHdR224242@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 221737 SWODY2 SPC AC 221736 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1236 PM CDT TUE JUN 22 2004 VALID 231200Z - 241200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE ILM 25 WNW FLO ATL GAD HSV CSV 30 SW SHD 20 E SBY. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ALO LSE OSH MBL 35 SSW HTL JXN SBN 35 SE MMO PIA IRK 10 ENE LWD DSM ALO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NW GGW P24 JMS AXN MSP GRB 10 NNE APN 155 E APN ...CONT... 30 NE PBG BFD 20 WNW MIE 35 NNW STL CNK RSL GAG 10 SE SPS ARG LEX MRB 10 E NEL ...CONT... 80 SSW GBN 10 NW BLH PMD NID DRA 50 SW SGU 10 WNW GCN GUP 4SL 35 NNW ALS 35 SSE LND 35 SSE WEY 25 W 27U 55 S BKE 45 ENE 4LW 30 WSW SVE 45 NW RBL 25 WNW MFR 35 SSE SLE 30 SSE OLM 25 NNW BLI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE TN VLY/SRN APPALACHIANS/SRN MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MS VLY/GREAT LAKES REGION.... MODELS SUGGEST LITTLE CHANGE TO BLOCKED UPPER FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THIS INCLUDES DEEP CLOSED UPPER LOW WHICH WILL REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL CANADIAN PROVINCES...WITH BROAD CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW REGIME OVER MUCH OF THE U.S. EAST OF THE ROCKIES...NORTH OF THE NORTHERN GULF STATES. ...TEXAS THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SRN MID ATLANTIC COAST... INITIAL WEAK FRONTAL ZONE/WIND SHIFT APPEARS LIKELY TO EXTEND FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE INTO EAST TEXAS EARLY WEDNESDAY. BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO SHIFT ONLY SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD...MOSTLY IN RESPONSE TO EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF LOWER/MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH ON SOUTHERN FRINGE OF STRONGER WESTERLIES. 700-500 MB WAVE OVER ARKANSAS AT 23/12Z IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...BEFORE CONTINUING INTO SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. RELATIVELY MOIST MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST...BUT WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS AT OR ABOVE 70F...MEAN MIXED LAYER OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG STILL APPEARS LIKELY. THIS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS PRIMARILY WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. HOWEVER... DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW FIELD AHEAD OF MID-LEVEL TROUGH...AND IN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF HIGH-LEVEL JET...COULD CONTRIBUTE TO EVOLUTION OF CONVECTIVE CLUSTER. BELT OF 30 TO 40 KT MEAN FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE WILL ENHANCE STORM MOTION...AND SUPPORT THREAT FOR STRONG...POTENTIALLY DAMAGING...WIND GUSTS. BEST CHANCE FOR THIS APPEARS TO BE DURING THE AFTERNOON PEAK HEATING HOURS INTO EARLY EVENING...FROM PARTS OF MID/EASTERN TENNESSEE AND NORTHERN ALABAMA INTO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. ...NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO GREAT LAKES REGION.... MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP CLOSED LOW IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL U.S. DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ROTATING AROUND BROADER CENTRAL CANADIAN CIRCULATION WILL DIG ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S. PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PRIMARY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ON NOSE OF PRE-FRONTAL THERMAL RIDGE FROM EASTERN IOWA INTO SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN...WHERE INSTABILITY/FORCING WILL BECOME MAXIMIZED IN RESPONSE TO STRONGER LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME. ALTHOUGH AREA WILL BE CUT OFF FROM MOIST GULF COAST STATES BOUNDARY LAYER...MOISTURE CURRENTLY IN PLACE...ENHANCED BY EVAPOTRANSPIRATION...SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. LAPSE RATES BENEATH COLD MID-LEVEL AIR MASS WILL BE STEEP...AND WITH SURFACE HEATING...MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE LIKELY WILL EXCEED 1000 J/KG. GIVEN STRONG AND FAVORABLY SHEARED CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME...A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED. ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP AS EARLY AS MID DAY OVER PARTS OF WISCONSIN/EASTERN IOWA/NORTHERN ILLINOIS...THEN GRADUALLY SPREAD EASTWARD/SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS..BEFORE WEAKENING AFTER DARK ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY EVENING. OTHER MUCH MORE WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG/ AHEAD OF FRONTAL ZONE WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MONTANA. BEST COVERAGE MAY BE IN THE LEE OF THE MONTANA ROCKIES...WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME WILL ENHANCE FORCING FOR ACTIVITY. ...SOUTHERN PLATEAU... MODELS APPEAR TO SUGGEST BETTER FORCING FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...SOUTH OF UPPER RIDGE AXIS. FLOW FIELDS ARE PROGGED TO BE QUITE WEAK...BUT SEEM FAVORABLE FOR SLOW PROPAGATION OFF THE MOUNTAINS...ACROSS THE TUCSON AREA...WHERE DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED MICRO BURSTS. ..KERR.. 06/22/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 23 07:34:19 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 23 Jun 2004 02:34:19 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200406230734.i5N7Yl211403@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 230732 SWODY2 SPC AC 230730 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0230 AM CDT WED JUN 23 2004 VALID 241200Z - 251200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 N BML 25 WNW EEN 40 NW CXY 45 WSW UNI 15 SSW MVN 15 ENE ICT 45 WSW CSM 20 W DHT 25 E PUB 40 WNW 4FC 45 SW CPR 50 ENE DGW 20 NNW LBF 20 NE LNK 30 SSE CID 20 WSW GRR 45 SE OSC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NE CTB 75 E LWT 30 N 81V 15 NW VTN 25 SSE SPW 20 ESE LNR 10 WNW MBL 55 ESE ANJ ...CONT... 20 NE BOS 40 SW ABE 15 E HTS 15 SSE MDH 40 ESE ICT 65 SE CDS 35 NW JCT SAT 15 E CLL 40 SW TXK 55 E LIT 50 S BNA 10 SW GSP 15 SSW CRE ...CONT... 45 SE YUM 15 S LAS 20 NE P38 25 E BCE 25 NNE INW 75 NE SAD 35 NW 4CR 45 NNW LVS 50 S GUC 45 NW PUC 30 SSW ENV 40 WNW OWY 50 ESE 4LW 45 NW SVE 35 NW RBL 20 E CEC 10 NNW EUG 20 SW SEA 15 NNW BLI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL HI PLNS THROUGH THE MID MS VLY TO THE LWR GRT LKS... ...SYNOPSIS... BAFFIN ISLAND BLOCK WILL CONTINUE TO RETROGRESS W ACROSS NRN CANADA ON THURSDAY...RESULTING IN FURTHER AMPLIFICATION OF PERSISTENT RIDGE OVER THE WRN PART OF THAT COUNTRY. THIS WILL KEEP DEEP CLOSED LOW FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER JAMES BAY THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND WILL MAINTAIN FAST CYCLONIC FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE NRN AND ERN U.S. AT LOWER LEVELS...COLD FRONT MARKING WRN/SRN FRINGE OF JAMES BAY SYSTEM WILL DROP S/SE ACROSS THE UPR MS VLY/UPR GRT LKS TODAY. THE BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE S/SE ACROSS THE CNTRL PLNS AND MID MS /OH VLYS ON THURSDAY AS UPPER IMPULSE NOW OVER MANITOBA DROPS SE ACROSS THE UPR GRT LKS. FARTHER S...MUCH WEAKER SRN STREAM JET WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL FROM THE WRN GULF CST ACROSS THE SERN STATES INTO THE WRN ATLANTIC. ...LWR MO/MID MS VLY THROUGH OH VLY TO NRN APLCNS... A STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE MCS WILL LIKELY BE ON-GOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD FROM ERN NEB/IA/SRN MN INTO SRN WI/NRN IL...IN ZONE OF STRONGEST LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ALONG COLD FRONT DOWNSTREAM FROM MANITOBA/MN UPPER IMPULSE. THESE STORMS SHOULD STRENGTHEN AND MOVE/DEVELOP EWD ALONG COLD FRONT LATER IN THE DAY AS SURFACE HEATING AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INFLOW FURTHER DESTABILIZE REGION FROM IL/IND EWD INTO OH/SRN MI. FAIRLY STEEP /AOA 7 DEG C PER KM/ LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 40+ KT UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP WLY SHEAR SHOULD FOSTER DEVELOPMENT OF FORWARD-PROPAGATING BOWS WITH HIGH WIND AND POSSIBLY HAIL. THIS ACTIVITY MAY SPREAD E INTO WRN PA/NY BY EVENING AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND MODEST BUT SUSTAINED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INFLOW OFFSET STABILIZING EFFECTS OF DIURNAL COOLING. ...CNTRL PLNS... FARTHER SW...SURFACE HEATING AND EXISTING ORIENTATION OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AXIS SUGGEST THAT STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH MORNING MCS WILL ALSO DEVELOP SWWD WITH TIME ALONG COLD FRONT INTO SRN NEB/KS AND NW MO. STRONG HEATING WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S SHOULD BOOST AFTERNOON MLCAPE TO NEAR 2000 J/KG. COUPLED WITH MODERATE /30 KT/ DEEP WNW TO NWLY SHEAR...SETUP SHOULD PROVE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS/SUPERCELL CLUSTERS WITH LARGE HAIL/HIGH WIND AND PERHAPS A COUPLE TORNADOES. DIURNAL STRENGTHENING OF SLY LOW LEVEL JET MAY ALLOW THIS ACTIVITY TO CONSOLIDATE INTO A MCS THAT DROPS S INTO SRN KS/NW OK THURSDAY NIGHT. ...NRN GRT BASIN INTO NRN/CNTRL HI PLNS... SCATTERED STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH DAYTIME HEATING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NRN RCKYS/INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. OTHER STORMS MAY FORM IN POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS PARTS OF WY AND CO. MOISTURE WILL BE QUITE LIMITED IN THE NRN RCKYS/ INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. BUT DEEP MIXED ENVIRONMENT AND MODERATE UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW MAY SUPPORT SHORT LINES OF STORMS WITH HIGH WIND. SOMEWHAT GREATER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT IN WY/CO...WHERE STRONG DIRECTIONAL COMPONENT TO WIND PROFILES MAY SUPPORT A COUPLE SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO. ...GULF CST/LWR MS VLY... A FEW CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO OCCASIONALLY SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS LA/AR/MS AND AL THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BENEATH SRN STREAM JET. POSSIBLE EMBEDDED MCV CIRCULATIONS MAY SUFFICIENTLY ENHANCE DEEP SHEAR TO SUPPORT A FEW SUSTAINED CELLS WITH HIGH WIND AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO. ..CORFIDI.. 06/23/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 23 17:42:20 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 23 Jun 2004 12:42:20 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200406231742.i5NHgj229247@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 231739 SWODY2 SPC AC 231738 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1238 PM CDT WED JUN 23 2004 VALID 241200Z - 251200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 N BML 10 N ALB AVP ZZV BMG BLV ICT GAG 15 ENE AMA 45 N TCC RTN PUB DEN CYS BFF 10 E IML BIE LWD BRL SBN 45 NNE MTC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NE CTB 75 E LWT 81V CDR MHN OLU DSM MLI BEH 50 SE OSC ...CONT... 10 NE BOS 35 SSW POU 10 N ILG WAL ...CONT... 40 S HUL 35 SE AUG ...CONT... 45 SE YUM DAG NID TPH BAM WMC SVE RBL 20 E CEC EUG 20 SW SEA 15 NNW BLI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CSV HTS 35 SSE LUK MDH 10 E SGF PNC END LTS 55 ESE LBB 35 WSW SJT SAT GGG PBF 10 SE MEM CSV. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THURSDAY ACROSS THE LWR GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY INTO THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES.... BLOCKED UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...MODELS DO SUGGEST LARGE...DEEP CENTRAL CANADIAN CLOSED LOW WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP EASTWARD ACROSS ONTARIO. THIS IS PROGGED TO OCCUR AS MOST PROMINENT EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE/JET STREAK ROTATES AROUND ITS SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY...ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...INTO QUEBEC THURSDAY NIGHT. IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM...A RATHER SHARP SURFACE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP AND SURGE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL STATES BY EARLY THURSDAY...BEFORE CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS... AND NORTHEASTERN STATES. ...FRONT RANGE/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO LOWER GREAT LAKES... VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY SURFACE DEW POINTS AROUND 70F APPEARS LIKELY TO REMAIN CONFINED TO GULF/MID AND SOUTH ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER...GIVEN MOISTURE CURRENTLY IN PLACE NORTH OF LINGERING SOUTHERN SURFACE BOUNDARY...DEW POINTS SHOULD REACH THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S ALONG/AHEAD OF STRONG COLD FRONT. THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR DESTABILIZATION SUPPORTIVE OF VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS STRONG SURFACE HEATING OCCURS IN PRE-FRONTAL THERMAL RIDGE. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST NARROW CORRIDOR OF MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG IS POSSIBLE NEAR FRONT BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WHEN BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM THE LEE OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH CENTRAL ILLINOIS/INDIANA... NORTHERN MISSOURI...AND CENTRAL KANSAS...INTO THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE REGION. STRONGEST FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION APPEARS LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION...ENHANCED BY TAIL END OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THIS IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT EVOLUTION OF NARROW SQUALL LINE IN FAVORABLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT ON SOUTHERN FRINGE OF STRONGER WESTERLIES. STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AS LINE SLOWLY ADVANCES SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. GIVEN RELATIVE DRYNESS OF BOUNDARY LAYER...SURFACE COOLING MAY OCCUR FAIRLY QUICKLY...WHICH MAY LIMIT DURATION OF SEVERE THREAT AFTER SUNSET. OTHER MORE WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG FRONT WESTWARD INTO THE PLAINS. BEST LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND SHEAR PROFILES WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER APPEAR LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN SOUTHWEST/NORTHEAST BAND ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS...WHERE AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL OR TWO IS POSSIBLE DURING THE 25/00-03Z TIME FRAME. BENEATH NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW...ADDITIONAL WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN UPSLOPE LOW-LEVEL FLOW REGIME CLOSE TO THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES. ...CENTRAL GULF STATES... MODELS SUGGEST MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH/BELT OF STRONGER FLOW WILL LIFT OUT OF BROAD TROUGH IN SUBTROPICAL BRANCH OF THE WESTERLIES OVER THE MEXICAN PLATEAU/WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS FEATURE IS PROGGED TO SHIFT ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA/CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI/NORTHERN ALABAMA DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS...AND MAY ENHANCE RISK OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...PERHAPS ISOLATED TORNADOES...IN MOIST TROPICAL AIR MASS. ..KERR.. 06/23/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 24 07:42:05 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 24 Jun 2004 02:42:05 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200406240742.i5O7gX206962@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 240740 SWODY2 SPC AC 240739 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0239 AM CDT THU JUN 24 2004 VALID 251200Z - 261200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ELP 35 N 4CR 20 NW RTN 35 WNW COS RWL 10 NNE BPI 30 N JAC 15 NW COD 40 NNW DGW 30 NW MHN 30 NNE HLC 35 SE DDC 15 SSE AMA 30 WNW BGS 15 NNW DRT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE CRE 45 N CAE 30 W HKY SSU 35 E AOO 20 NNW POU 10 SSE PSM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SW TUS 30 NNE GBN 25 SW FLG 55 NW GUP 35 S CNY 40 ESE DPG 40 N BAM 35 WNW SVE 45 ENE ACV 50 ESE OTH 30 SE PDX 50 SE SEA 60 E BLI ...CONT... 40 ENE CTB 40 E BIL 15 ESE 81V 10 NNW ANW 20 ESE HSI 25 NW EMP 35 ENE CNU 20 WSW UMN 15 ESE MKO 35 W TXK 40 E ELD 40 WNW MSL 35 SE SDF 20 SW FKL 35 SSE UCA 20 NW MWN 25 NE CAR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 160 E APN 35 SSW OSC 20 WSW OSH 30 NNW MSP 20 SSE HIB 60 ENE ELO. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NC AND THE MID ATLANTIC STATES INTO SRN NEW ECG... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE CNTRL AND SRN HI PLNS... ...SYNOPSIS... DEEP VORTEX NEAR JAMES BAY WILL MAINTAIN FAST CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE NRN AND ERN U.S. THIS PERIOD AS THE SYSTEM EDGES SLOWLY E INTO QUEBEC. A SERIES OF LOW AMPLITUDE IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND WRN AND SRN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW WILL GLANCE THE UPR MS VLY AND GRT LKS REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH BLOCK OVER NRN CANADA CONTINUING TO RETROGRESS W AND STRENGTHEN EXISTING RIDGE OVER YUKON...THERE WILL LIKELY BE INCREASED WLY FLOW OVER THE NRN GRT BASIN/PACIFIC NW. ELSEWHERE...WEAKER SRN STREAM JET WITH EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES EXPECTED TO PERSIST FROM THE CNTRL GULF CST TO THE CAROLINA CST. FARTHER W...WEAK WLYS AND SLIGHT RIDGING OVER AZ SHOULD RESULT IN DEVELOPMENT OF A DIFFUSE UPPER LOW OVER THE SRN PLNS. ...NC/MID ATLANTIC STATES TO SRN NEW ENG... COLD FRONT WHICH WILL CROSS THE GRT LKS/OH VLY LATER TODAY WILL CONTINUE E/SE ACROSS NEW ENG AND THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ON FRIDAY. THE FRONT SHOULD DECELERATE AND SLOWLY WEAKEN WITH TIME AS MAIN SUPPORTING IMPULSE CONTINUES NEWD INTO CANADA...AND BOUNDARY BECOMES PARALLEL TO DEEP WSWLY MEAN FLOW. THE FRONT WILL...NEVERTHELESS...LIKELY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR DIURNAL-ENHANCED STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER PA/SERN NY AND SRN NEW ENGLAND. LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE MODEST /AROUND 6.5 TO 7.0 DEG C PER KM/...AND CLOUDS MAY LIMIT SURFACE HEATING...ESPECIALLY IN NEW ENG. BUT COMBINED WITH 40-50 KT DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL WSWLY SHEAR AND SUSTAINED CONVERGENCE...SETUP SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW BANDS/CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AND POSSIBLY A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH HIGH WIND AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. FARTHER S...THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT TO VARYING DEGREES REGARDING EVOLUTION OF A WEAK SURFACE WAVE E OF THE NC MOUNTAINS IN RESPONSE TO FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH IMPULSES IN SRN STREAM JET. LAPSE RATES OVER REGION WILL REMAIN WEAK...ESPECIALLY AT MID LEVELS. BUT CONVERGENCE INVOF OF THE WAVE...COUPLED WITH RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE INFLOW AND SLIGHTLY BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW...SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THE MAIN THREATS POSED WOULD BE LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. ...CNTRL/SRN HI PLNS... PATTERN OF WEAK/LARGELY UNFOCUSED UPSLOPE FLOW AND INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHOULD PROVE FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED DIURNALLY-ENHANCED STORMS ALONG AND JUST E OF THE RCKYS FROM CNTRL/ERN WY SWD INTO NM/W TX. THE GREATEST SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY /MLCAPE TO 1500 J PER KG/ SHOULD DEVELOP IN PARTS OF W TX/NM...WHILE THE STRONGEST DEEP SHEAR /WITH VALUES APPROACHING 40 KT/ WILL LIKELY EXIST IN ERN WY/ERN CO. OVERALL SETUP EXPECTED TO YIELD SCATTERED SUSTAINED STORMS AND A FEW SUPERCELLS IN CO/WY...WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL/HIGH WIND AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE TORNADOES. MAINLY MULTICELL CLUSTERS APPEAR MORE LIKELY FARTHER S. THE ACTIVITY IN WY/CO MAY CONSOLIDATE INTO AN MCS THAT CONTINUES SE INTO WRN NEB/WRN KS WITH A HAIL/WIND THREAT FRIDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...THE NM/TX STORMS MAY CONSOLIDATE INTO A SWD-MOVING MCS WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND. ...ELSEHWERE... WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NRN GRT BASIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WHERE INCREASED WLY FLOW ALOFT AND STRONG SURFACE HEATING MAY CONTRIBUTE TO A FEW SUSTAINED CELLS. ALONG THE CNTRL GULF CST...A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY DEVELOP DOWNWIND OF MCV-TYPE CIRCULATIONS LEFT OVER FROM DAY ONE CONVECTION. ..CORFIDI.. 06/24/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 24 17:29:25 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 24 Jun 2004 12:29:25 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200406241729.i5OHTk205462@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 241728 SWODY2 SPC AC 241727 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1227 PM CDT THU JUN 24 2004 VALID 251200Z - 261200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE CRE CLT 35 E ANB SEM MSY 25 SE 7R4 10 WNW HEZ MSL CSV 20 E LOZ 10 ENE CRW EKN AOO IPT BGM 30 WNW ALB 35 SE GFL 20 NNE BAF 30 ENE POU 10 NW JFK. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 W MRF CNM LVS TAD COS CYS LAR RWL 50 NW CPR 50 NNE CPR 10 NE DGW CDR MHN 10 SSE LBF MCK GLD 30 WNW BGS 15 NNW DRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SW TUS 30 NNE GBN 35 SW PRC IGM P38 TPH 45 S TVL RBL 45 ENE ACV 50 ESE OTH 30 SE PDX 50 SE SEA 60 E BLI ...CONT... 40 ENE CTB 40 E BIL 15 ESE 81V VTN EAR ICT 35 ENE CNU VIH BLV ZZV UCA 20 NW MWN 25 NE CAR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 160 E APN 35 SSW OSC 20 WSW OSH 30 NNW MSP 20 SSE HIB 60 ENE ELO. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FRIDAY FROM PARTS OF THE CNTRL GULF STATES INTO THE CNTRL/SRN APPALACHIANS AND NRN/MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FRIDAY ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS.... MODELS SUGGEST LITTLE CHANGE TO BLOCKED UPPER FLOW REGIME THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD...WITH HIGHER HEIGHTS CENTERED OVER THE CANADIAN NORTHWEST TERRITORIES AND CLOSED LOWS/LOWER HEIGHTS CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND EASTERN CANADIAN PROVINCES. BROAD TROUGHING WILL PERSIST IN SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.S./MEXICAN PLATEAU AND WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WITH A BELT OF STRONGER LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW EXTENDING EAST OF TROUGH AXIS...AROUND SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF STATES AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO MID ATLANTIC COAST. ...EAST OF MISSISSIPPI RIVER.... MOST SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE/JET STREAK EMBEDDED WITHIN EASTERN CANADIAN CIRCULATION APPEARS LIKELY TO BE LIFTING RAPIDLY ACROSS QUEBEC BY EARLY FRIDAY. ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SURGE INTO NEW ENGLAND AND THE OHIO VALLEY BEFORE STALLING AND WEAKENING...AS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REMAINS STRONG ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND WESTERN ATLANTIC. BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN WARM AND VERY MOIST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN/EASTERN U.S...WITH 70F+ DEW POINTS PREVALENT ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES/TENNESSEE VALLEY AND MID/ SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES. DESPITE RELATIVELY WARM/MOIST MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK LAPSE RATES...AND LIKELIHOOD OF CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER...MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG IS EXPECTED WITH AT LEAST SOME HEATING. SIMILAR CAPE VALUES ARE ALSO EXPECTED ALONG FRONT FARTHER NORTH...FROM PENNSYLVANIA INTO PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND...WHERE SURFACE DEW POINTS MAY ONLY REACH THE MID/UPPER 60S...BUT MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE A BIT STEEPER. MODELS SUGGEST NEXT SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN NORTHERN TROUGH WILL BE SLOW TO PROGRESS EASTWARD...AND MAY NOT REACH THE OHIO VALLEY UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...A MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE/JET STREAK IS PROGGED TO MIGRATE OUT OF SOUTHERN TROUGH...ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY MID DAY...INTO THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...AND DIFLUENT/DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW FIELD DOWNSTREAM OF NORTHERN SHORT WAVE...PERHAPS ENHANCED BY RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF HIGH LEVEL JET ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES/ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...SHOULD PROVE SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. FORCING ALONG FRONT APPEARS LIKELY TO BECOME MAXIMIZED BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...WHERE CLUSTER OF STORMS APPEARS POSSIBLE. MODERATE TO STRONG WESTERLY MID/UPPER FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG SHEAR PROFILES SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD TOWARD NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS BEFORE WEAKENING DURING THE EVENING HOURS. ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED OFF THE LEE SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WITH APPROACH OF SOUTHERN SHORT WAVE TROUGH. DEVELOPING LOW IN LEE SURFACE TROUGH MAY EVENTUALLY BECOME FOCUS FOR ACTIVITY BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE MOIST/TROPICAL IN NATURE ACROSS MUCH OF VIRGINIA/NORTH CAROLINA...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE A THREAT...PARTICULARLY AS SOUTH/ SOUTHWESTERLY LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW STRENGTHENS LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY FRIDAY EVENING. ...WESTERN AND CENTRAL STATES... GENERAL INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY APPEARS LIKELY FRIDAY BENEATH UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...AND OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE LEE OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. WHILE LARGE-SCALE FORCING WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...WARM/ UNSTABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT. BEST POTENTIAL FOR HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS APPEARS TO EXIST IN UPSLOPE REGIME OFF THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES...WHERE SHEAR PROFILES BENEATH NORTHWESTERLY MID/ UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED SUPERCELLS, ..KERR.. 06/24/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 25 07:05:32 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 25 Jun 2004 02:05:32 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200406250705.i5P75p213157@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 250703 SWODY2 SPC AC 250702 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0202 AM CDT FRI JUN 25 2004 VALID 261200Z - 271200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSW RTN 20 S PUB 10 NNW DEN 20 W AKO 50 WNW GLD 55 NW GCK 10 WSW LBL 30 NW AMA 10 N TCC 40 SSW RTN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE FHU 45 WSW SOW 50 NW GCN 50 NE TPH 25 N BIH 30 NE MER 55 NNW SAC 50 ESE CEC 45 NW DLS 25 NE BLI ...CONT... 55 N FCA 40 SE LWT 20 SSE CDR 10 NNE MHN 30 SE RWF 35 NNW LSE 30 NE MSN 10 SE JVL 40 E MLI 15 N BRL 45 W LWD 40 NE MHK 15 SSW EMP 10 NE BVO 25 ESE PGO 40 ENE PBF 35 ESE MKL 10 WNW 5I3 10 S DCA 20 NNE JFK 15 NE PWM 25 NNE CAR. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.... ...SYNOPSIS... THE DEEP LOW INVOF JAMES BAY WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EWD AS AN EMBEDDED SPEED MAX MOVES NEWD FROM NEW ENGLAND TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES EARLY IN THE PERIOD. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SPEED MAX...A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EWD OFF THE NEW ENGLAND AND MID ATLANTIC COASTS DURING THE DAY...WHILE THE WRN EXTENT OF THE BOUNDARY SAGS SEWD ACROSS THE INTERIOR CAROLINAS AND SWD INTO THE NRN GULF COAST STATES. FARTHER W...THE SRN FRINGE OF THE STRONGER MID LEVEL NWLYS WILL PERSIST FROM MT TO THE MID MS VALLEY...WITH A LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE REGIME ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES FROM NM TO MT. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE GREATEST ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY WHERE A WEAK SRN STREAM TROUGH INTERACTS WITH A DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME...ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES...AND ACROSS THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. ...ERN CO/WRN KS/NE NM/NRN TX PANHANDLE AREA... AN INVERTED TROUGH/WEAK LEE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE E CENTRAL/SE CO AREA DURING THE DAY AND PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR STORM INITIATION. WEAK LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW AND DAYTIME HEATING ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL ALSO AID IN CONVECTIVE INITIATION AS BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S SPREAD NWWD INTO ERN CO FROM DAY 1 INTO DAY 2. EXPECT MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG/ TO DEVELOP OVER ERN CO/WRN KS DURING THE DAY...IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF RELATIVELY WEAK ABSOLUTE WIND SPEEDS BUT ROUGHLY 150-180 DEGREES OF VEERING FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH THE MID LEVELS. THE NET RESULT WILL BE A SUFFICIENT COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR TO SUPPORT AT LEAST A MARGINAL SUPERCELL THREAT...AS WELL AS MULTICELL STORM CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY SPREAD SWD TOWARD THE NW TX PANHANDLE AND NE NM FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...POSSIBLY AIDED BY A NOCTURNAL SLY LLJ ACROSS W TX. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY THIS AREA WILL BE THE IMPACTS OF ANY CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS FROM LATE DAY 1 INTO EARLY DAY 2...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW TO STABILIZE THE PLAINS AND FORCE THE THREAT AREA TO REMAIN ADJACENT TO THE FRONT RANGE. ...ERN WA/ORE TO ID AND EXTREME WRN MT... STRONG SURFACE HEATING IS EXPECTED BENEATH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. GRADUAL ACCUMULATION OF MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SBCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG. THOUGH DEEP LAYER WIND PROFILES WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK WITHIN THE MID LEVEL RIDGE...INSTABILITY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STORMS WITH STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS AND ISOLATED HAIL FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. ..THOMPSON.. 06/25/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 25 17:39:09 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 25 Jun 2004 12:39:09 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200406251739.i5PHdRg29752@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 251704 SWODY2 SPC AC 251703 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1203 PM CDT FRI JUN 25 2004 VALID 261200Z - 271200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSW RTN 20 S PUB 10 NNW DEN 20 W AKO 50 WNW GLD 55 NW GCK 10 WSW LBL 30 NW AMA 10 N TCC 40 SSW RTN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW FHU 25 SSW SOW 50 NW GCN 50 NE TPH 25 N BIH 30 NE MER 55 NNW SAC 50 ESE CEC 45 NW DLS 25 NE BLI ...CONT... 55 N FCA 35 ENE 3HT 60 SSE 81V 25 WSW PHP 25 NW ABR 50 NW AXN 35 SSW EAU 30 NE MSN 10 SE JVL 40 E MLI 15 N BRL 45 W LWD 40 NE MHK 15 SSW EMP 10 NE BVO 25 ESE PGO 40 ENE PBF 35 ESE MKL 10 WNW 5I3 10 S DCA 20 NNE JFK 15 NE PWM 25 NNE CAR. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... JAMES BAY UPPER CYCLONE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS THE ERN TWO THIRDS OF NOAM INTO THE WEEKEND. A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL TRANSLATE NEWD OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. UPSTREAM...AN OMEGA BLOCK WILL PERSIST WITH A RIDGE REMAINING STRONG ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. DISTURBANCES...EMANATING FROM AN UPSTREAM UPPER LOW OVER THE N PAC BASIN...WILL TOP THE RIDGE IN THE PAC NW AND NRN ROCKIES THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE...STABLE CP AIR MASS SPREADING SEWD IN WAKE OF THE NEW ENGLAND DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE AS FAR SOUTH AS PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS AND THE MID-SOUTH. TAIL END OF THE FRONT WILL BEGIN REDEVELOPING NWD AS A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE SRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY. THIS FRONT...AND OTHER BOUNDARIES SITUATED ALONG THE GULF COAST...WILL BE THE IMPETUS FOR TSTMS INTO THE WEEKEND. ...CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS... WEAK ESELY UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD AID IN GRADUAL MOISTENING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER IN THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS TODAY AND SATURDAY. SURFACE DEW POINTS SHOULD BE IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES F SATURDAY AFTERNOON BENEATH STEEP MID-TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES. THERMODYNAMIC SETUP SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR TSTMS TO INITIATE ALONG THE NM/CO HIGHER TERRAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON HOW FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY TSTMS WILL ALTER THE AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION. PRIND THAT GIVEN SUFFICIENT RECOVERY... TSTMS COULD ALSO INITIATE VCNTY SURFACE LEE LOW OVER SERN CO AND FAVORED TERRAIN FEATURES AS WELL...AIDED BY WEAK UPPER SUPPORT ASSOCIATED WITH NWLY FLOW MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THOUGH THE MIDLEVEL FLOW WILL GENERALLY BE 30 KTS OR LESS... DIRECTIONAL/VERTICAL SHEAR WILL LIKELY BE MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS. QUICK EVOLUTION INTO MULTICELL LINE SEGMENTS/MCS IS LIKELY TO OCCUR DURING THE EVENING WITH PROPAGATION VECTORS FAVORING A SSEWD MOVEMENT INTO THE ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS OF NM...SWRN KS AND TX/OK PNHDLS AS THE SLY LLJ DIURNALLY INCREASES. ...INTERMOUNTAIN WEST... RECYCLED MOISTURE OWING TO DIURNAL TSTM CLUSTERS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING TSTM PROBABILITIES ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THIS WEEKEND...BENEATH THE MIDLEVEL RIDGE. THOUGH THE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE RATHER WEAK...PULSE SEVERE TSTMS GIVING SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE LIKELY GIVEN LARGE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS AT THE SURFACE. HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR TSTMS WILL LIKELY OCCUR OVER ERN PARTS OF WA/ORE...JUST EAST OF AN ANTICIPATED MARINE PUSH. ..RACY.. 06/25/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 26 07:36:55 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 26 Jun 2004 02:36:55 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200406260737.i5Q7bBg17690@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 260732 SWODY2 SPC AC 260730 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0230 AM CDT SAT JUN 26 2004 VALID 271200Z - 281200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NNE FCA 45 W LWT 50 SE BIL 55 WNW CDR 35 NNW MHN 15 ENE ANW 25 SSW MHE BKX 20 W MSP 35 SE CWA 20 ENE MTW 25 ESE MBS 20 WNW ERI 30 NNW PIT 15 SSE DNV 35 W COU 20 NNW SGF 15 SSW UNO 20 ENE CKV 25 W TRI 20 W RDU 20 SSE EWN ...CONT... 70 SW TUS 35 SSW GCN 20 N SGU 35 S ELY 20 S U31 65 WNW BIH 40 N MER 40 N SAC 30 WSW MHS 30 ENE MFR 55 ESE DLS 10 S EAT 65 E BLI. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... 00Z MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN EVOLUTION. A DEEP MID LEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EWD FROM THE JAMES BAY AREA...WHILE A BELT OF CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THIS LOW FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. FARTHER S...A PERSISTENT SRN STREAM TROUGH OVER TX WILL BEGIN TO EJECT ENEWD TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY LATE IN THE PERIOD AS THE RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES STARTS TO BUILD EWD TOWARD THE HIGH PLAINS. IN THE WEST...A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH INVOF OF CA THIS MORNING WILL DRIFT INLAND OVER THE GREAT BASIN...WHILE A STRONGER TROUGH NOW JUST OFF THE WA/ORE COASTS LIFTS NEWD TO BRITISH COLUMBIA AND WEAKENS. SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE ROCKIES WITHIN A PLUME OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND IN CONJUNCTION WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES. THE STRONGER STORMS SHOULD OCCUR INVOF ID WHERE SEVERAL DAYS OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL AGAIN SUPPORT MODERATE INSTABILITY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW DOWNBURSTS AND ISOLATED HAIL. HOWEVER...RELATIVELY WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR WILL LIMIT THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT. ISOLATED STRONG STORMS MAY ALSO OCCUR ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES FROM CO TO NM IN ASSOCIATION WITH WEAK MID LEVEL NWLY FLOW/LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW...THOUGH THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE TEMPERED BY AT BEST MODERATE INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL VERTICAL SHEAR. FINALLY...A MOIST/TROPICAL AIR MASS WILL ACCOMPANY THE MID LEVEL TROUGH EJECTING ENEWD TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THOUGH LAPSE RATES WILL BE POOR OVER THIS AREA...30-40 KT LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW MAY SUPPORT AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM OR TWO WITHIN THE LARGER CONVECTIVE CLUSTER. ..THOMPSON.. 06/26/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 26 17:37:29 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 26 Jun 2004 12:37:29 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200406261737.i5QHbkg08223@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 261735 SWODY2 SPC AC 261734 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1234 PM CDT SAT JUN 26 2004 VALID 271200Z - 281200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NNE FCA 45 W LWT 50 SE BIL 60 ENE DGW 40 WSW VTN 15 WSW 9V9 20 WSW ATY 30 NW MSP 45 W CWA 35 W GRB 20 ENE MTW 25 ESE MBS 20 WNW ERI 30 NNW PIT 15 SSE DNV 35 W COU 20 NNW SGF 15 SSW UNO 20 ENE CKV 25 W TRI 20 W RDU 20 SSE EWN ...CONT... 15 SSE FHU 25 ESE TUS 60 NNE TUS 45 SSW GCN 20 N SGU 35 S ELY 20 S U31 65 WNW BIH 40 N MER 40 N SAC 30 WSW MHS 30 ENE MFR 55 ESE DLS 10 S EAT 65 E BLI. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... PERSISTENT JAMES BAY CYCLONE WILL BEGIN TO EDGE EWD LATER THIS WEEKEND. UPPER WAVE...NOW OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES...WILL ROTATE AROUND THIS FEATURE...REACHING THE UPPER MS VLY AND UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...LOWER AMPLITUDE UPPER LOW OVER TX WILL EJECT ENEWD TOWARD THE LOWER MS VLY AS THE NRN STREAM SYSTEM DIGS SEWD. UPSTREAM...PART OF THE UPPER LOW SITUATED OFF THE PAC NW COAST WILL DROP SLOWLY SEWD TOWARD THE GREAT BASIN TODAY AND SUNDAY. BUT...THE UPPER RIDGE NOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND ROCKIES SHOULD REMAIN FIRMLY ENTRENCHED WITH ONLY WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TOPPING THE RIDGE ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE...FRONT SETTLING SWD WILL STALL FROM THE CAROLINAS TO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS TODAY...ONLY TO REDEVELOP NWD THROUGH THE PLAINS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. A NEW FRONT...MOVING SWD IN THE WAKE OF THE CANADIAN IMPULSE...WILL MOVE SWD INTO THE UPPER MS VLY AND CNTRL PLAINS BY SUNDAY NIGHT. ...CNTRL GULF COASTAL AREA... WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD IN A ZONE OF PERSISTENT WARM ADVECTION REGIME FROM THE UPPER TX COAST INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. AS THE TX UPPER LOW EJECTS NEWD...BELT OF MODEST MIDLEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF COASTAL AREA DURING PEAK HEATING. TSTMS MAY INTENSIFY ALONG SERN EDGE OF ONGOING CONVECTION AND GIVEN THE UNIDIRECTIONAL SWLY FLOW REGIME...TSTMS MAY TEND TO DEVELOP BOWING LINE SEGMENTS GIVING ISOLD WIND DAMAGE. MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE THE THREAT OF WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND WEAK MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES. ...MID MO VLY TO THE CORN BELT... STRONG DCVA WILL SPREAD SEWD ACROSS THE MID MO VLY AND CORN BELT AHEAD OF THE CANADIAN IMPULSE DURING PEAK HEATING. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND BY AFTERNOON...MLCAPE VALUES WILL BE 500-1000 J/KG JUST AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. WHILE INSTABILITY WILL BE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL...MODEST WLY FLOW ALOFT MAY BRIEFLY ORGANIZE TSTMS INTO LINE SEGMENTS WITH POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. IF INSTABILITY IS HIGHER THAN FORECAST...REGION MAY BE UPGRADED TO A CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS. ...CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS... SELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN MODEST SURFACE DEW POINTS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY. TSTMS THAT DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAY SURVIVE ONTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS DURING THE EVENING. VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN WEAK AND TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE MAINLY MULTICELLS WITH ISOLD THREATS OF HAIL OR SEVERE WIND GUSTS. ...NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST... BOUNDARY LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN OWING TO RECYCLED MOISTURE FROM DAILY TSTM CYCLES. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO ENHANCED INSTABILITY VALUES BENEATH UPPER RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE REGION AND SCATTERED TSTMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE. DESPITE WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR...PULSE SEVERE TSTMS MAY GIVE ISOLD LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. COVERAGE IS APT TO BE MORE ISOLD ON SUNDAY AS THE STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT MOVES NWD INTO WRN CANADA LATER TONIGHT. ..RACY.. 06/26/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 27 07:31:10 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 27 Jun 2004 02:31:10 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200406270731.i5R7VMK17147@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 270727 SWODY2 SPC AC 270725 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0225 AM CDT SUN JUN 27 2004 VALID 281200Z - 291200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 E DUG 50 NNW GUP 55 NNE BCE 50 E ELY 60 WSW ELY 20 WSW TPH 60 NE MER 30 N SAC 40 SW RBL 45 SE EKA CEC 35 ESE OTH 40 SE EPH 25 NNW 63S ...CONT... 55 NE CTB 65 NNE BIL 25 SW MLS 45 NW REJ 45 NNW PHP 40 NNE VTN 25 NNE BUB EAR 25 NW RSL 35 WNW P28 40 N END BVO 15 WNW UMN 25 NE ALN 20 NNW AZO 35 NE MBS ...CONT... 25 NW SYR 45 SSE UCA 15 E MSV 15 E NEL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNW MQT 40 SW IMT 35 E EAU 20 ESE STC 45 SE FAR 40 ESE DVL 65 NNW DVL. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN...WITH A BELT OF CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTING OVER THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY/NEW ENGLAND...AND AN UPSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. IN THE LOW LEVELS...A MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE GULF COAST AND SE ATLANTIC COAST STATES TO THE S OF A RESIDUAL FRONT. A WEAK SECONDARY FRONTAL INTRUSION IS FORECAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE OH VALLEY...AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH NOW OVER THE NRN PLAINS ROTATES EWD OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND BY LATE TOMORROW. A LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME WILL ALSO CONTINUE ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES BENEATH WEAK NWLY FLOW DOWNSTREAM FROM THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. FARTHER W...A BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND CA...WITH A PLUME OF MID LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE FROM NM/CO NWWD TO THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... AN UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME WILL PERSIST BENEATH 20-30 KT WLY/NWLY FLOW IN THE MID TO UPPER TROPOSPHERE. DAYTIME HEATING AND BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND CONVECTION WILL LIKELY FORM BY EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND SPREAD SLOWLY EWD/SEWD DURING THE EVENING. TOTAL VERTICAL SHEAR WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...BUT LOW-LEVEL WINDS VEERING WITH HEIGHT AND MID LEVEL FLOW AROUND 20 KT MAY SUPPORT A FEW STORMS WITH MARGINAL SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS. LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS. ...INTERIOR NW... STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL AGAIN SUPPORT DIURNAL CONVECTION...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. INVERTED-V PROFILES IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL SUPPORT A THREAT OF ISOLATED MICROBURSTS...THOUGH THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LIMITED BY WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR. ...CAROLINAS... THE REMNANTS OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH NOW OVER TX WILL EJECT ENEWD OVER THE CAROLINAS TOMORROW...AND THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN IN A CONFLUENT FLOW REGIME. MID LEVEL FLOW IN THE RANGE OF 30-40 KT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS EJECTING TROUGH...ALONG WITH A WEAK WAVE ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT THAT NOW LIES ACROSS CENTRAL GA/SC. STRONG/DAMAGING GUSTS MAY OCCUR WITH LINE SEGMENTS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS DURING THE DAY...BUT ONLY LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES ARE WARRANTED AT THIS TIME. ..THOMPSON.. 06/27/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 27 17:36:50 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 27 Jun 2004 12:36:50 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200406271737.i5RHb0K27902@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 271734 SWODY2 SPC AC 271733 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1233 PM CDT SUN JUN 27 2004 VALID 281200Z - 291200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSE LHX 25 SSE TAD 45 WNW TAD 10 W DEN 25 NNW FCL 30 E CYS 10 SW SNY 40 E AKO 50 NE LAA 20 S LAA 50 SSE LHX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DUG 50 WNW SAD 25 SE INW 30 SSE U17 50 NE BCE 50 E ELY 60 WSW ELY 20 WSW TPH 60 NE MER 30 N SAC 40 SW RBL 45 SE EKA CEC 35 ESE OTH 40 SE EPH 25 NNW 63S ...CONT... 55 NE CTB 65 NNE BIL 25 SW MLS 45 NW REJ 45 NNW PHP 40 NNE VTN 25 NNE BUB EAR 25 NW RSL 35 WNW P28 40 N END BVO 15 WNW UMN 25 NE ALN 20 NNW AZO 35 NE MBS ...CONT... 25 NW SYR 45 SSE UCA 15 E MSV 15 E NEL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNW MQT 40 SW IMT 35 E EAU 20 ESE STC 45 SE FAR 40 ESE DVL 65 NNW DVL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS AREA... ...SYNOPSIS... NRN STREAM MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING INTO THE UPPER MS VLY IS EXPECTED TO DIG SEWD THROUGH THE UPPER OH VLY AND NEW ENGLAND MONDAY. LOWER AMPLITUDE IMPULSE OVER THE SRN PLAINS WILL SUBSEQUENTLY EJECT/SHEAR NEWD TOWARD THE CAROLINAS BY MONDAY EVENING. AT THE SURFACE...QUASISTATIONARY FRONT SITUATED FROM THE CAROLINAS TO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS WILL BE REINFORCED BY A NEW FRONT DROPPING SEWD IN WAKE OF THE UPPER MS VLY DISTURBANCE. THESE FRONTS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR TSTMS THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE NEW WORK WEEK. ...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS... BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL TURN MORE SELY ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE CENTER OF PLAINS SURFACE HIGH MOVES TOWARD KANSAS CITY. AS A RESULT...BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS SHOULD RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 50S ALONG THE FRONT RANGE BENEATH STEEP MID TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. TSTMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND STRENGTHEN ON THE ADJACENT PLAINS LATER. MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG AND VERTICAL SHEAR OF 30-35 KTS WILL LIKELY PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLD SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLD TORNADOES. HOWEVER...MAIN SEVERE MODE SHOULD BE MULTICELLULAR AND A SMALL MCS MAY FORM IN THE EVENING ACROSS ERN CO WITH DAMAGING WINDS. GIVEN EXPECTED STRONGER VERTICAL SHEAR/INSTABILITY OVER TODAY...THE SEVERE THREATS APPEAR TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR AN UPGRADE TO CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK. ...CAROLINAS NWD TO PARTS OF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION... MIDLEVEL FLOW OF 30-40 KTS ACCOMPANYING THE SHEARING SRN PLAINS TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE ENEWD TO THE CAROLINAS MONDAY AFTERNOON. TSTMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP VCNTY WEAK SURFACE LOW/FRONT DURING PEAK HEATING AND MOVE TOWARD THE COAST BY EVENING. TSTMS MAY TEND TO DEVELOP INTO LINE SEGMENTS AND BOW GIVING ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS. FARTHER N...CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR TSTMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE HIGHER RIDGES OVER CNTRL PA SWD INTO WRN VA BY AFTERNOON. INCREASING WLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE NRN STREAM IMPULSE MAY ENCOURAGE LINE SEGMENTS TO BOW WITH ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE. MAIN LIMITING FACTORS FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WILL BE WEAK MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY. ...SRN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS... COMBINATION OF RECYCLED MOISTURE FROM THE DIURNAL TSTM CYCLE AND BRIEF ENHANCEMENTS TO THE ELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW REGIME WILL MAINTAIN THE TSTM THREAT ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES MONDAY. IN FACT...MOISTENING OF THE LOWER LEVELS MAY INCREASE WELL WEST OF THE DIVIDE AS WEAK HEIGHT FALLS PERSIST OVER THE DESERTS. GIVEN ORIENTATION OF UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH...INCREASING UPPER DIFFLUENCE/DIVERGENCE WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR TSTMS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NM AND W TX. GIVEN HIGH CLOUD BASES/INVERTED-V PROFILES...ISOLD SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG WITH HAIL. ...INTERMOUNTAIN WEST... DIURNAL MOUNTAIN CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP MONDAY. LARGE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL ENCOURAGE ISOLD SEVERE WIND GUSTS TO ACCOMPANY THE STORMS. OVERALL SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LIMITED GIVEN THE WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR. ..RACY.. 06/27/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 28 07:33:04 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 28 Jun 2004 02:33:04 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200406280733.i5S7XFK02306@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 280730 SWODY2 SPC AC 280728 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0228 AM CDT MON JUN 28 2004 VALID 291200Z - 301200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE IML 20 SE AKO 25 SE FCL 15 NNE LAR 50 SSW GCC 35 SSW 4BQ 15 WSW REJ 60 NE RAP 35 WNW VTN 20 SSW MHN 20 NNE IML. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N CAR 20 WNW MWN 20 SSE ELM 10 SSW CLE 50 SW SBN 25 NE MLI ALO 20 SSW MKT 35 NNE AXN 60 WNW RRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N HVR 20 W GDV 25 S P24 55 ESE BIS 45 SW ABR 50 NNE BUB 10 ENE EAR 15 WSW RSL 30 NW P28 30 W P28 40 NW BVO 40 SSW SZL 20 ESE BLV 10 SSE SDF 15 SSE PSK 15 ENE ECG ...CONT... 35 SSW FHU 20 S GCN 25 NNW CDC 30 SSW ELY 60 SE U31 50 NW TPH 45 WNW BIH 25 E SCK 55 N SAC 45 SW RBL 40 SSE EKA 25 NNE 4BK 20 N PDX 10 W EPH 35 NW 63S. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.... ...GREAT LAKES AREA... ACTIVE NRN STREAM WITH BELT OF CYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO NEW ENGLAND. WITHIN THIS NRN STREAM...ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY WILL MOVE TO NEW ENGLAND AND WEAKEN BY THE END OF DAY 1...WHILE ANOTHER TROUGH NOW OVER NRN MANITOBA/NWRN ONTARIO DIGS SEWD TO THE LAKE SUPERIOR AREA TONIGHT AND CONTINUES EWD TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WAVE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAK SURFACE LOW AND FRONT THAT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. 30-40 KT LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW WITH THIS TROUGH WILL SUPPORT A THREAT OF STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH CONVECTION IN A BAND NEAR THE COLD FRONT FROM ONTARIO DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO FAR WRN NY DURING THE EVENING. HOWEVER...WEAK INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT THIS AREA. OTHERWISE...SEASONALLY COOL TEMPERATURE PROFILES...RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S...AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S MAY SUPPORT A FEW STORMS WITH HAIL DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS WI AND LOWER MI. ...INTERIOR NW AREA... A RIDGE WILL PERSIST OVER THE ROCKIES...WITH AN UPSTREAM TROUGH INVOF CA AND NV. A MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FROM THE SRN ROCKIES NNWWD TO THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...WITH SCATTERED DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STORMS WITH STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE WHERE DAYTIME HEATING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND STEEP LAPSE RATES CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY FROM NE CA TO THE ID PANHANDLE AREA. ...HIGH PLAINS AREA... A SOMEWHAT GREATER CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF ERN WY/NEB PANHANDLE/SW SD DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. WEAK LEE TROUGHING AND ASSOCIATED SELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL DRAW DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S NWWD BENEATH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ABSOLUTE WIND FIELDS WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG OVER THIS AREA...BUT STRONG VEERING WITH HEIGHT WILL RESULT IN MARGINALLY FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN CENTRAL/ERN WY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND SPREAD EWD OVER THE PLAINS DURING THE EVENING. WIDELY SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED STRONG OUTFLOW GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY. ..THOMPSON.. 06/28/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 28 17:32:12 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 28 Jun 2004 12:32:12 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200406281732.i5SHWI131703@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 281729 SWODY2 SPC AC 281728 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1228 PM CDT MON JUN 28 2004 VALID 291200Z - 301200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE IML 20 SE AKO 25 SE FCL 15 NNE LAR 50 SSW GCC 35 SSW 4BQ 15 WSW REJ 60 NE RAP 35 WNW VTN 20 SSW MHN 20 NNE IML. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N CAR 20 WNW MWN 20 SSE ELM 10 SSW CLE 50 SW SBN 25 NE MLI ALO 20 SSW MKT 35 NNE AXN 60 WNW RRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DUG 20 NNE SAD 30 ENE INW PGA 15 SSE U24 20 SW DPG 15 NNW ELY 60 SE U31 50 NW TPH 45 WNW BIH 25 E SCK 55 N SAC 45 SW RBL 40 SSE EKA 25 NNE 4BK 20 N PDX 10 W EPH 35 NW 63S ...CONT... 25 N HVR 20 W GDV 25 S P24 55 ESE BIS 45 SW ABR 50 NNE BUB 10 ENE EAR 15 WSW RSL 30 NW P28 30 W P28 40 NW BVO 40 SSW SZL 20 ESE BLV 10 SSE SDF 15 SSE PSK 15 ENE ECG. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL UPPER AIR PATTERN EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. NEXT IN A SERIES OF MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL ROTATE FROM NRN ONTARIO TODAY TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND BY TUESDAY EVENING. THIS WILL MAINTAIN BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE NERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY INTO MID-WEEK. MEANWHILE...BLOCK PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS WRN NORTH AMERICA WITH A MIDLEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND UPPER LOWS OFF CA AND OVER THE NRN PAC BASIN. WEAK LOW AMPLITUDE IMPULSES ARE EXPECTED TO ROTATE NEWD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION THROUGH TUESDAY...ALONG THE BACKSIDE OF THE ROCKIES RIDGE. ...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS/ROCKIES... RETURN FLOW SHOULD BEGIN IN ERNEST LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT... ADVECTING 50S SURFACE DEW POINTS NWWD INTO ERN WY BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. STEEP MID-TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES ATOP THIS INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT TSTMS. STORMS WILL INITIATE ALONG THE MOUNTAINS FIRST... THEN MIGRATE ONTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS IN THE EVENING. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREATS. SLIGHTLY HIGHER CONCENTRATION OF TSTMS...THOUGH EMBEDDED IN WEAKER INSTABILITY...WILL OCCUR FROM WRN CO AND NERN UT NEWD INTO SWRN WY. LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER AZ WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NNEWD INTO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA TONIGHT AND TOWARD THE CNTRL ROCKIES DURING PEAK HEATING TUESDAY. MORE VIGOROUS TSTMS COULD PRODUCE ISOLD LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...PARTICULARLY IN SWRN PARTS OF WY AND WRN CO. ...NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST... THERMODYNAMIC SET-UP WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR DIURNAL TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AGAIN TUESDAY. STRONGEST INSTABILITY AXIS WILL LIKELY LIE ACROSS PARTS OF ORE AND IN CNTRL ID POSSIBLY AIDING IN A MORE CONCENTRATED TSTM CLUSTERS. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN WEAK...BUT INVERTED-V LOW LEVEL PROFILES MAY CONTRIBUTE TO ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ...CNTRL-LOWER GREAT LAKES... PVA ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT DISTURBANCE WILL SPREAD QUICKLY EWD THROUGH ONTARIO AND LIKELY INTO PARTS OF WRN/NRN NY BY TUESDAY EVENING. A NARROW AXIS OF INSTABILITY WILL ACCOMPANY THIS IMPULSE ...BUT MLCAPES SHOULD REMAIN 1000 J/KG OR LESS. NONETHELESS... MODEST WLY FLOW REGIME WILL ENCOURAGE ANY TSTMS TO EVOLVE INTO SHORT LINE SEGMENTS THAT COULD GIVE ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS. OTHERWISE...RESIDUAL 50S SURFACE DEW POINTS BENEATH MID MINUS TEENS H5 TEMPERATURES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG IN AN AXIS FROM ERN WI ACROSS LOWER MI INTO ONTARIO. WHILE LOW LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE WEAK...TSTMS MAY DEVELOP WITHIN CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME WITHIN THIS INSTABILITY AXIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOW WBZ LEVELS AND MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLD VIGOROUS TSTMS THAT MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL. OTHERWISE...KINEMATIC SET-UP CONSISTING OF UNIDIRECTIONAL PROFILE MAY AID IN DEVELOPMENT OF LINE SEGMENTS WITH ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ..RACY.. 06/28/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 29 07:33:32 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 29 Jun 2004 02:33:32 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200406290733.i5T7Xb103184@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 290731 SWODY2 SPC AC 290730 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0230 AM CDT TUE JUN 29 2004 VALID 301200Z - 011200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW APN 35 E AUW 25 N ANW 50 S PHP 50 ESE REJ 10 NNW Y22 15 SSW BIS 35 NNE FAR 30 N ELO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW BHB 25 NNE 3B1 70 WNW CAR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW ERI 20 SSW YNG 15 ENE MFD 25 ENE BEH 15 S LNR 30 ENE FOD 10 NNE OLU 50 S EAR 25 WNW HUT 35 E ICT 35 ENE SGF 20 NE PAH 15 NNW JKL 20 SW SHD 20 NE WAL ...CONT... 65 N OLF 35 WNW ISN 30 NW P24 35 WSW DVL 35 NNW GFK 35 E RRT ...CONT... 50 SSE DMN 50 SE GNT 10 E CNY 25 NE PUC 25 ENE ENV 15 SSW BAM 50 SE TVL 40 N SAC 55 NNW UKI 10 N ACV 10 ESE OTH 15 N PDX 75 NW 4OM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SD TO UPPER MI AREA.... ...SYNOPSIS... A MEAN TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND AS ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER ONTARIO MOVES EWD OVER MAINE EARLY IN THE PERIOD...AND ANOTHER UPSTREAM TROUGH OVER NRN MANITOBA DIGS SEWD TO ONTARIO AND THE LAKE SUPERIOR AREA. FARTHER W...THE RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE ROCKIES WILL CONTINUE...WHILE A WEAK/COMPLEX FLOW REGIME OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS/SRN ROCKIES IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE INTO A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH FROM NW TX TO SRN KS BY LATE IN THE PERIOD. W OF THE ROCKIES RIDGE...A TROUGH WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY OVER CA...WITH A BELT OF DEEP LAYER SLY FLOW MAINTAINED OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND INTERIOR NW. A BROAD PLUME OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL AGAIN SUPPORT SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION OVER MUCH OF THE ROCKIES AND NRN GREAT BASIN...WHILE DAYTIME HEATING WITHIN A TROPICAL AIR MASS RESULTS IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ROCKIES FRONT RANGE AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS...AS WELL AS THE INTERIOR NW...WHILE A SOMEWHAT MORE CONCENTRATED SEVERE STORM THREAT IS EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES. ...SD TO NRN WI/UPPER MI AREA... THE MID LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING SEWD ACROSS ONTARIO WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE COLD FRONT. ACCUMULATION OF MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER THROUGH EVAPOTRANSPIRATION...ALONG WITH MOISTURE ADVECTION NWD/NEWD FROM THE PLAINS...WILL RESULT IN BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S TOMORROW AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT FROM THE ERN SD AREA TO NRN WI. THIS MOISTURE...ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 7 C/KM...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG/. MEANWHILE...DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL ALSO BECOME AT LEAST MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS ALONG THE COLD FRONT. A FEW STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND SPREAD SEWD INTO THE EVENING. WIDELY SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. ...SRN HIGH PLAINS... THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH FORECAST OVER TX/OK/KS GIVEN THE MUDDLED FLOW REGIME NOW PRESENT OVER THIS AREA...AND THE LIKELY INFLUENCE OF CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS. ASSUMING THE ETA/GFS FORECASTS ARE REASONABLY ACCURATE...THEN THERE WILL BE A BELT OF SOMEWHAT ENHANCED NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW OVER W/NW TX. THIS 20-30 KT NWLY FLOW AND VEERING LOW-LEVEL WINDS WITH HEIGHT COULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. ...NE CA TO ERN WA/ID AREA... ANOTHER DAY OF DIURNAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. THE PERSISTENT LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN PROFILES WITH STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE FOR A FEW STORMS WITH STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS...AND PERHAPS ISOLATED HAIL. THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN LIMITED BY WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR. ..THOMPSON.. 06/29/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 1 07:42:18 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 01 Jun 2004 02:42:18 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200406010742.i517gHj26506@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 010737 SWODY2 SPC AC 010735 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0235 AM CDT TUE JUN 01 2004 VALID 021200Z - 031200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E SBY 10 NNE CXY 25 NE IPT 35 NE BGM 15 ESE GFL 35 S CON 10 NNE HYA. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE PSX AUS BWD 35 NNW ABI 10 SSE CDS 15 SSW CSM 50 WNW MLC 20 E PGO 20 ENE ELD 20 NW HEZ 25 W HUM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ESE CRP 55 ESE JCT 35 ESE LBB 35 SE TCC 45 ENE LVS 35 WNW TAD 30 NNW LHX 30 NNW LBL 25 SSE P28 30 WSW UMN 15 SSW POF 20 NW LEX 30 WNW UNI 15 N FKL 30 NW BUF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 N HVR 3HT 25 NNW WEY 35 WSW SUN 55 SW BOI 50 NNE BNO 25 SE PDT 60 ENE 63S. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PARTS OF NERN U.S.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS ERN U.S. AS FLAT RIDGING DEVELOPS EWD FROM ROCKIES INTO HIGH PLAINS. MAIN PORTION OF COLD TROUGH ROTATES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WITH SRN SEGMENT ROTATING SEWD INTO SERN STATES. A RATHER COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER NERN STATES WITH MAIN CENTER REMAINING N OF ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH ETA SUGGESTING A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW/TROUGH ROTATING ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND ASSOCIATED WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL WIND MAX WHICH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS SRN ENGLAND DURING AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH MOVES EWD ACROSS NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND MAINTAINS AN E/SE FLOW VICINITY STALLED FRONTAL ZONE WHICH EXTENDS WWD ACROSS N TX. ...NERN U.S... AS COLD TROUGH MOVES EWD...LAPSE RATES STEEPEN TO IN EXCESS OF 7C/KM FROM SRN NY/ERN PA EWD ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY. IN ADDITION DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID 50S AND SFC TEMPS INTO LOW/MID 70S WILL RESULT IN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MUCAPES FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. SUFFICIENT DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEAR ON THE N SIDE OF THE MID LEVEL WIND MAX TO SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP WITH DAYTIME HEATING. GIVEN THE WEAK CAP AND WITH THE COOL MID LEVEL TEMPS AT LEAST SEVERE HAIL IS LIKELY. WITH THE 40-50 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR...THERE IS ALSO A CONCERN FOR ROTATING STORMS WHICH WOULD ENHANCE BOTH THE DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL THREAT FROM SERN NY/ERN PA EWD ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND. ...SRN PLAINS... PERSISTENT ELY/SELY FLOW N OF STALLED FRONT WILL STEADILY INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE W/WNWWD ACROSS N TX/SRN OK THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE MID/UPPER WNWLY FLOW ACROSS THIS AREA OF 30-40 KT WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORMS. VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE IN WARM SECTOR S OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY N TX WITH MUCAPES POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG. STEEP LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 8C/KM ABOVE THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH A DOMINANT LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL. STORMS SHOULD BE MOST COMMON ALONG AND ON COOL SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHERE WARM ADVECTION WILL PROVIDE LIFT. STORMS SHOULD MOVE/PROPAGATE SEWD INTO WARM SECTOR WHICH WILL MAINTAIN THREAT OF SEVERE OVER OUTLOOK AREA THRU WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ..HALES.. 06/01/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 1 17:36:33 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 01 Jun 2004 12:36:33 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200406011736.i51HaUj31723@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 011734 SWODY2 SPC AC 011732 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1232 PM CDT TUE JUN 01 2004 VALID 021200Z - 031200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM GLS JCT MAF 60 N HOB 40 W TCC RTN 25 ESE TAD 55 SSW LAA GAG FSM JBR 35 ENE MKL 25 N MSL CBM TCL MGM 15 E PNS. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ORF DCA CXY AVP 30 N POU ORH HYA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NE HVR 35 WSW 4BQ BFF 15 N GLD GCK 25 WSW JLN PAH 25 NNW JKL JHW SLK PWM ...CONT... 45 ENE CRP P07 HOB 25 WSW LVS GUC VEL OWY 70 SSW RDM DLS 45 NE 63S. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS EWD INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SRN NEW ENGLAND SWD INTO DELMARVA... ...SYNOPSIS... STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY WILL DIVE SEWD AND AMPLIFY THE LONG WAVE TROUGH IN THE ERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY. SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING TROUGH IN THE EAST. THESE FEATURES WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT EWD THAT IS FORECAST TO STRETCH FROM NEW ENGLAND/NY/PA SWWD ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO/MID MS VALLEYS...SWWD INTO SRN OK/WRN TX. ...LOWER MS VALLEY REGION... MODELS DEPICT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH...LOCATED THIS MORNING IN CO...MOVING ACROSS AR/LA WED MORNING AND AL IN THE AFTERNOON. WARM FRONT ALONG THE GULF COASTAL STATES SHOULD LIFT NWD AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AND STRETCH FROM NRN TX EWD INTO CENTRAL MS. SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER TODAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS AND AS LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS TONIGHT...STORMS SHOULD CONGEAL INTO AN MCS. STORMS SHOULD MOVE ESEWD ALONG AND NORTH OF WARM FRONT. A STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL BE PRESENT NEAR THE FRONT AND 40-50 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN A SEVERE THREAT WITH STORMS ON WEDNESDAY. SOME HAIL IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE...BUT WNWLY FLOW ALOFT AND POSSIBLE FORWARDING PROPAGATING SYSTEM SUGGESTS WIND DAMAGE SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT. ...SRN PLAINS... PERSISTENT ELY/SELY FLOW N OF STALLED FRONT WITH DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN THE AIR MASS TO BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ACROSS OK/TX PANHANDLE/NERN NM. LOW LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS LATE WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS IN THE WEST. STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF SERN CO/NERN NM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH LOW LEVEL JET SUPPORTING STORMS OVERNIGHT. ONCE STORMS DEVELOP... INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. HIGHER CLOUD BASES AND WEAKER 1 KM SHEAR INDICATE HAIL AND WIND WOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS. A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE IN WARM SECTOR S OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NRN TX WITH MLCAPES NEARING 4000 J/KG BY LATE AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN...BUT STRONG VEERING IN THE LOWER 3KM...RESULTING IN LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION...AND CONVERGENCE NEAR THE BOUNDARY MAY BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE STORMS BY LATE AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS...BUT THE VERY WARM BOUNDARY LAYER AND HIGH LCLS HEIGHTS SUGGEST THAT VERY LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT. ONCE STORMS DEVELOP...THEY SHOULD TRACK SEWD OVERNIGHT WITH A SEVERE THREAT POSSIBLY SPREADING INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/ERN TX. ...SRN NEW ENGLAND SWD INTO DEL LARVA... AIR MASS IS FORECAST TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE BY EARLY AFTERNOON DUE TO SFC-700 MB LAPSE RATES NEAR 7C/KM AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME VEERING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND SPEED SHEAR ABOVE...WHICH RESULTS IN SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR SEVERE STORMS. WITH A WEAK CAP...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MID/LATE MORNING. THE UNDIRECTIONAL FLOW AND LINEAR FORCING SUGGESTS STORMS MAY ORGANIZE INTO A LINEAR STRUCTURE...WITH WIND DAMAGE THE MAIN THREAT FROM SRN NEW ENGLAND SWD INTO THE DELMARVA REGION. ..IMY.. 06/01/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 2 07:39:48 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 02 Jun 2004 02:39:48 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200406020741.i527fSj16062@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 020737 SWODY2 SPC AC 020735 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0235 AM CDT WED JUN 02 2004 VALID 031200Z - 041200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE DAL 15 ENE ACT 50 ESE LBB 45 NW PVW 10 NNW LHX 25 NNW LIC 50 ESE CYS 45 SE AIA 40 SE LBF 50 S RSL 30 ESE P28 50 NE OKC 30 ENE DUA 40 ESE DAL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 N DVL 60 SE BIS 55 NE PIR 20 N GRI 30 SSW MHK 25 S CNU 25 SSE FYV 45 W JAN 40 ESE MEI 10 NNW MGM 35 WNW AHN 10 NW HKY 20 ENE WAL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW PSX 40 N HDO FST 35 NW LVS 20 ENE ASE 30 ENE RWL 40 N CPR 25 SW SHR 15 NE COD 35 ENE PIH 40 WNW TWF 45 SSE BNO 70 ENE BLI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... NRN PORTION OF ERN TROUGH MOVES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND DURING PERIOD WHILE WEAKER SRN PORTION DROPS SEWD FROM TN VALLEY TO SERN COAST. BROAD RIDGE OVER WRN U.S. WITH NWLY FLOW PREVAILING ACROSS THE PLAINS. COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS SERN U.S. INTO NRN FL AND THEN EXTENDING WWD JUST INLAND FROM GULF COAST. TROUGHING DEVELOPING LEE OF ROCKIES COUPLED WITH SURFACE HIGH MOVING EWD INTO GREAT LAKES WILL ALLOW SPREAD OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE NWD ACROSS HIGH PLAINS. ...CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS... NWLY FLOW PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WITH THE 20-30 KT NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW E OF WRN RIDGE COUPLED WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER SLY FLOW OF INCREASING GULF MOISTURE WILL PUT IN PLACE PARAMETERS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. STEEP LAPSE RATES OF 8-9C/KM ALONG WITH THE 40-50 KT OF SFC-6KM SHEAR AND POTENTIALLY MUCAPES FROM 1500-2000 J/KG SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS WITH STORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP OFF HIGHER TERRAIN. ADDITIONALLY THESE PARAMETERS SUGGEST CONVECTION COULD TRANSITION FROM SUPERCELLS TO FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS'S AS THEY MOVE SEWD ACROSS CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO N TX AND WRN OK. PRIMARY THREAT WOULD BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...HOWEVER ISOLATED TORNADOES WOULD BE POSSIBLE EARLY IN STORM DEVELOPMENT. ...SERN STATES... MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AHEAD OF FRONTAL SYSTEM SERN STATES COUPLED WITH UPWARD MOTION AHEAD OF S/WV TROUGH COULD RESULT IN A FEW STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FIRST 12 HOURS OF FORECAST PERIOD. ADDITIONALLY THE INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS FL WHEN COUPLED WITH SEA BREEZE FRONT CONVERGENCE WILL AID IN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SWD THRU CENTRAL FL PENINSULA. ...NRN ROCKIES,.. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK S/WV TROUGH MOVING ACROSS WRN U.S. RIDGE WILL SUPPORT HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS VICINITY NRN ROCKIES. WHILE STEERING FLOW WILL ONLY BE 25-30KT...WITH THE INVERTED VEE SOUNDING PROFILES ISOLATED SEVERE DOWNBURSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. ..HALES.. 06/02/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 2 18:00:56 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 02 Jun 2004 13:00:56 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200406021800.i52I0mj30886@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 021758 SWODY2 SPC AC 021756 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1256 PM CDT WED JUN 02 2004 VALID 031200Z - 041200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE TXK 40 WNW POE 20 S TPL 35 W PVW 30 WSW LHX 25 NNW LIC 45 W SNY 15 N AIA 10 NNE MHN 40 ENE MCK 45 S RSL 35 E OKC 25 NNE TXK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW PSX 40 N HDO FST 35 NNW ALM 20 ENE ASE 30 ENE RWL 40 N CPR 25 SW SHR 15 NE COD 35 ENE PIH 40 WNW TWF 45 SSE BNO 70 ENE BLI ...CONT... 55 N DVL 60 SE BIS 55 NE PIR 20 N GRI 30 SSW MHK 25 S CNU 25 SE FYV 40 NNE GLH 25 NW MEI 10 NNW MGM 35 WNW AHN 10 NW HKY 20 ENE WAL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E BDR 35 WNW ALB 15 WNW MSS. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS SEWD TO ARKLATEX REGION... ...SYNOPSIS... ERN PORTION OF ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY AS AN UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY MOVING SWD ALONG THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER...ROUNDS THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH. MEANWHILE...THE WRN PORTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL TRACK FROM THE TN VALLEY TO THE SERN STATES. IN THE WEST...A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY ESEWD ACROSS THE NERN PACIFIC WITH A LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH EJECTING NEWD ACROSS THE PAC NW TO NRN ROCKIES. HEIGHT RISES ACROSS MUCH OF THE ROCKIES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT WNWLY MID-UPPER FLOW FROM THE HIGH PLAINS SEWD TO THE MID/LOWER MS VALLEYS. ...CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS SEWD TO ARKLATEX REGION... AS A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS EWD ACROSS THE MS VALLEY TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY...AND A TROUGH DEVELOPS IN LEE OF THE ROCKIES BENEATH WNWLY FLOW ALOFT...LOW-LEVEL GULF MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN NWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO DAKOTAS. SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS ERN CO/WRN KS INTO NEB PANHANDLE BY 04/00Z. THE COMBINATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN BENEATH A PLUME OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SPREADING EWD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WILL RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY FROM WRN NEB SWD TO ERN NM/WRN TX. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL/ SRN HIGH PLAINS...GIVEN 25-40 KT NWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ATOP 20-25 KT SELY UPSLOPE FLOW. ONE OR TWO MCS WILL POSSIBLY BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD ACROSS PORTIONS OF OK/AR SWD TO ERN TX/LA. THIS ACTIVITY... ALTHOUGH NOT FORECAST VERY WELL BY MODEL DATA...SHOULD PROPAGATE SEWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY THURSDAY MORNING WHERE THE AIR MASS WILL BE MODERATELY UNSTABLE. HOWEVER...WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL AS THESE COMPLEXES MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY. FARTHER WNW...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL/SRN ROCKIES FROM CENTRAL-ERN NM NWD TO SERN WY. WNWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL FAVOR THESE STORMS MOVING ESEWD INTO THE INSTABILITY AXIS WITH THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS. DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS...THOUGH ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH INITIAL ACTIVITY AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONGEAL INTO ONE OR MORE FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS/S THURSDAY NIGHT AS THEY MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO WRN OK/NRN TX. ...NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/NRN ROCKIES... MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE NEWD ACROSS THE PAC NW TO NRN ROCKIES THIS PERIOD. STRONG SURFACE HEATING EXPECTED FROM ERN WA/OR EWD TO WRN MT WILL COMBINE WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES FOR AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG. HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN OR/ERN WA INTO ID WITH THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING DRY MICROBURSTS AND HAIL...GIVEN SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THIS ACTIVITY WILL THEN MOVE EWD TOWARD CENTRAL MT THURSDAY EVENING. IF AREAL COVERAGE FOR SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE GREATER IN LATER OUTLOOKS...A PORTION OF THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/NRN ROCKIES MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A SLIGHT RISK. ...CAROLINAS SWD TO FL... MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS/GA FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE 09Z ETAKF IS THE FASTEST WITH THIS FEATURE AND SUBSEQUENTLY DEVELOPS THE GREATEST CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY INLAND ACROSS THE CAROLINAS/SERN GA. NONE THE LESS...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY LATER MORNING ACROSS THE SERN STATES AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SEWD OVER THIS REGION. A SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO TRACK NEWD ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL CONVERGENCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS...BUT THE VARIABILITY IN MODEL DATA WITH AVAILABLE INSTABILITY WILL KEEP LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES ACROSS THIS AREA. GREATER CONFIDENCE FOR AVAILABLE INSTABILITY/SEVERE STORMS IN LATER OUTLOOKS WOULD WARRANT AN UPGRADE TO A SLIGHT RISK FOR PORTIONS OF THE SERN STATES. FARTHER S...INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS SWD ACROSS FL ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES...BUT WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE SEVERE COVERAGE. ..PETERS.. 06/02/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 3 07:02:50 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 03 Jun 2004 02:02:50 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200406030702.i5372fj17044@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 030700 SWODY2 SPC AC 030658 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0158 AM CDT THU JUN 03 2004 VALID 041200Z - 051200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N BVO 35 NNW PRX 15 NE DAL 45 NW ABI 35 ENE PVW 45 WNW EHA 30 NNE LIC 40 WNW BFF 15 N GDV 10 NNW BIS 10 SE HON MHK 25 N BVO. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW PNS 25 NNE DHN 40 SW CHS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNW VRB 10 NNW PIE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE DMN 55 ENE SAD 10 W GUP 10 WSW FMN 20 NW GJT 10 SSE RKS 30 W BPI 15 NW PIH 50 SSE BOI 45 SW BKE 50 NW 4OM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM RRT 50 SSW DLH 15 NNW CID 45 NNW COU 25 WSW UNO LIT 30 W GLH 15 W MEI 30 WSW 0A8 RMG 15 SSW TRI 15 NE ECG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S CRP 15 WNW COT 45 NW DRT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PLAINS STATES... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SOUTHEASTERN STATES... ...SYNOPSIS... WITH BROAD RIDGE REMAINING OVER THE WRN U.S. A NWLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE PLAINS TO THE WEAKENING TROUGH POSITION OVER THE SERN U.S. SLY FLOW TO E OF TROUGH LEE OF ROCKIES WILL CONTINUE TO FEED GULF MOISTURE NWD THRU THE PLAINS. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING MOISTURE AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL PROVIDE A LARGE AREA OF POTENTIALLY VERY UNSTABLE AIR FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE CENTRAL AND NRN PLAINS. SRN BRANCH S/WV TROUGH SLOWLY SHIFTS EWD ACROSS SERN U.S. WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINING ALONG SERN COAST WWD VICINITY FL PANHANDLE. ...PLAINS... NWLY FLOW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE ON FRIDAY AS THE SLY 20-30KT LOW LEVEL FLOW AND 30-40 KT NWLY 500MB FLOW RESULT IN VERY FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 50 KT TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL. AS DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S MOVE AS FAR N AS THE DAKOTAS...AFTERNOON MUCAPES WILL POTENTIALLY CLIMB TO ABOVE 3000 J/KG MUCH OF HIGH PLAINS. ONE OR MORE SEVERE MCS'S ARE LIKELY TO EVOLVE OUT OF SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL INITIATE VICINITY HIGH PLAINS WHERE CAP WILL BE WEAKEST. EXTENT AND LOCATION OF SEVERE WILL BE SOMEWHAT DEPENDENT ON EVOLUTION OF STORMS/MCS'S THAT FORM TODAY. HOWEVER THE POTENTIAL EXISTS AS FAR N AS ND AS MODELS DO INDICATE THE UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL REACH THAT AREA BY AFTERNOON. ...SERN U.S... WITH COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO STALL ONSHORE IN THE SERN U.S...THE MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL STILL BE AVAILABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING AFTERNOON NRN FL AND SRN GA. CYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW AROUND WEAKENING TROUGH WILL PROVIDE SHEAR AND SOME COLD AIR ALOFT FOR MAINLY MULTICELLULAR STORM DEVELOPMENT. ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE HIGHLY DIURNAL GIVEN THE WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW. ..HALES.. 06/03/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 3 17:59:13 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 03 Jun 2004 12:59:13 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200406031759.i53Hx3810131@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 031756 SWODY2 SPC AC 031754 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1254 PM CDT THU JUN 03 2004 VALID 041200Z - 051200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNE MKO 20 W LFT 30 ENE PSX 35 WSW BWD 35 ENE PVW 45 WNW EHA 30 NNE LIC 40 WNW BFF 45 WNW ISN 30 WNW GFK 10 SE HON MHK 15 NNE MKO. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E PNS 20 NE CSG 15 ENE AND 35 SW GSO 60 E DAN 10 NNE ORF ...CONT... 15 NNW VRB 10 NNW PIE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S CRP 15 WNW COT 45 NW DRT ...CONT... 20 ESE DUG 35 NE SAD 10 W GUP 10 WSW FMN 20 NW GJT 10 SSE RKS 30 W BPI 15 NW PIH 50 SSE BOI 45 SW BKE 50 NW 4OM ...CONT... 80 NW CMX 25 ESE DLH 15 SSE DBQ 50 SSW IRK 25 WSW UNO LIT 30 W GLH 15 W MEI 30 WSW 0A8 25 NNE MSL 40 NE BWG 55 ENE LUK 10 SW PIT 35 WNW CXY 15 SW JFK. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES TO SERN TX/WRN LA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SRN MID ATLANTIC AND SERN STATES... ...SYNOPSIS... BROAD RIDGE OVER THE WRN STATES WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUATION OF NWLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES INTO THE MS VALLEY ON FRIDAY. LARGE UPPER TROUGH...CURRENTLY OVER THE NERN PACIFIC/GULF OF ALASKA...IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE PAC NW BY 12Z SATURDAY. SHORT WAVE TROUGHS EJECTS FROM THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH WILL TRACK NEWD OVER THE PAC NW TOPPING THE RIDGE BEFORE MOVING SEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. IN THE EAST...UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH...NOW OVER MID MS VALLEY WILL TRACK ENEWD ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEYS. ETA/ETAKF/GFS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR FRIDAY...WITH THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER ETA PREFERRED FOR THIS FORECAST PER COORDINATION CALL WITH HPC. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NEWD INTO SC FRIDAY AFTERNOON...REACHING SERN VA BY 12Z SATURDAY WITH A WARM FRONT MOVING NWD ACROSS NC TOWARD THE DELMARVA REGION. ...PLAINS INTO SERN TX/LA... AS THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND MS RIVER VALLEY...SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL RETURN TO MUCH OF THE PLAINS WITH GULF MOISTURE MOVING NWD. A WEAK E-W FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL TX TODAY WILL TRACK NWD ACROSS NRN TX...REACHING THE TX PANHANDLE SEWD TO NERN TX BY 12Z SATURDAY. SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE DAKOTAS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH MID 60S ACROSS NEB/KS...AND NEAR 70 F DEWPOINTS CONFINED TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS NRN TX. VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SPREADING EWD ATOP THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING WILL RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS FROM NWRN TX/WRN OK INTO ERN/SERN TX. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS WITH SUPERCELLS IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS...GIVEN VEERING WIND PROFILES WITH HEIGHT /SSELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW BENEATH NWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW/. MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS THE SRN GREAT BASIN ATTM...WILL EXTEND FROM WRN OK TO ERN NM AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WITH ONGOING ELEVATED STORMS...POTENTIALLY SEVERE... ACROSS WRN OK AND PORTIONS OF THE TX PANHANDLE. THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK SEWD TOWARD SERN TX/SWRN LA WITH STORMS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP AND/OR INTENSIFY...AS THEY TRACK SEWD ALONG THE RETURNING WARM FRONT/INSTABILITY GRADIENT. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BECOME SURFACE BASED BY AFTERNOON WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS MOVING ACROSS MAINLY NRN TX INTO SERN TX/WRN LA FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. A GREATER SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED NWD ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE PLAINS STATES FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT. SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVING SEWD ACROSS THIS REGION AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL LIKELY SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM INITIATION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND LEE TROUGH ALONG THE ENTIRE EXTENT OF THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE ESEWD INTO THE STRONGER INSTABILITY AXIS WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTING SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES. IF GREATER INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY... PORTIONS OF THIS REGION MAY BE UPGRADED TO A MODERATE RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS. AS THE SLY LLJ STRENGTHENS FRIDAY EVENING...ONE OR MORE FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS/S SHOULD DEVELOP FROM THE DAKOTAS SWD TO OK/NRN TX WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS. ...SRN MID ATLANTIC AND SERN STATES... A SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO TRACK NEWD ACROSS SC FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO SERN VA BY 12Z SATURDAY. TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE SERN STATES. WARM SECTOR IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE BY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CAROLINAS INTO FL...DESPITE MORNING CLOUDINESS/SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NEWD IN ADVANCE OF THIS STORM SYSTEM. MODELS SUGGEST A DRY AIR INTRUSION WILL MOVE ACROSS GA INTO SC FRIDAY AFTERNOON RESULTING IN STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE LOW/WARM FRONT. SUFFICIENT CAPE/SHEAR PARAMETERS SUPPORT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES MAINLY ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TOWARD FAR SERN VA...WITH ATTENDANT TORNADOES POSSIBLE. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COLD FRONT...BUT WEAKER DEEP LAYER SHEAR WOULD SUGGEST A LOWER THREAT SWD INTO FL. ..PETERS.. 06/03/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 4 07:52:26 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 04 Jun 2004 02:52:26 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200406040752.i547qE829360@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 040748 SWODY2 SPC AC 040746 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0246 AM CDT FRI JUN 04 2004 VALID 051200Z - 061200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ANJ 20 SSE TVC 35 NNW CGX 35 SSW STL 40 SSE PRX 10 SSE FTW 60 NW ABI 10 NNW TCC 10 SSW TAD 15 W LHX 15 W GCK GRI 15 N STC 15 ENE INL. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NW ISN 30 N 4BQ 40 NNW SHR BZN 60 N BOI 50 SE ALW 65 ENE 63S. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE TLH 50 ENE MCN 10 NNE RDU 30 NNE LYH 45 ESE PKB 15 SSE JHW 25 SSE PSM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSE PSX 15 NNE SAT 10 W DRT ...CONT... 40 E DUG 45 W TCS 20 S ABQ 50 WSW ALS 25 ESE ASE 25 WSW FCL 15 SW GCC WEY 45 ENE SUN 30 SW BOI 10 W BNO 15 WNW DLS 15 E SEA 45 ENE BLI ...CONT... 90 NW MOT 10 ESE RAP 35 ESE CDR 25 SSW MHN 20 NW BUB 15 WSW FAR 55 WNW RRT ...CONT... 20 SE APN 20 ESE SBN CMI 25 W MEM 35 W JAN 30 S GPT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE NRN/WRN GREAT LAKES... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE NRN ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... MID TO UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN QUITE PROGRESSIVE SATURDAY AS OVERALL PATTERN EVOLVES INTO TROUGHS OVER THE PAC NW AND NORTHEAST WITH LARGE RIDGE IN BETWEEN. FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE NOW MOVING ACROSS THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION WILL PHASE WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA AND BECOME A BROADER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW NOW OVER THE OH/TN VALLEYS WILL LIFT STEADILY NEWD DURING THE DAY AS IT IS INFLUENCED BY DEEPENING TROUGH INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF STRONG UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX OVERSPREADING THE PAC NW. ...CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS... APPEARS MOST ACTIVE REGION FOR VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL OCCUR FROM THE HIGH PLAINS OF SWRN KS/NERN NM/OK-TX PANHANDLES INTO THE MID MO RIVER VALLEY...ALONG ERN PERIPHERY OF STEEP LAPSE RATE PLUME. THIS REGION WILL ALSO BECOME VERY MOIST IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AS UPPER 60F TO LOWER 70F SURFACE DEW POINTS RETURN AHEAD OF COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. MLCAPES WILL APPROACH OR EXCEED 2000 J/KG INTO OK/CENTRAL KS...THOUGH EXACT LOCATION OF INSTABILITY MAXIMA AND SURFACE FEATURES WILL BE INFLUENCED BY MCS ACTIVITY EARLY IN THE PERIOD. REGARDLESS...EXPECT SUFFICIENT HEATING AND MOISTURE TO BE IN PLACE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE WELL INTO THE EVENING...AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND FRONTAL CONVERGENCE OVERCOME CAPPING. SSWLY H85 WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD OUT OF THE SRN PLAINS UNDER A MODEST NWLY MID LEVEL JET /H5 WINDS FROM 35-45 KT/...SUPPORTING A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR. AS IS TYPICAL IN NW FLOW SITUATIONS... EXPECT INITIAL DEVELOPMENT WILL BE SUPERCELLULAR WITH GRADUAL EVOLUTION INTO ONE OR MORE MCSS SHIFTING ESEWD AFTER DARK. ...NRN MS RIVER VALLEY INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES... LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL BECOME QUITE STRONG DURING THE PERIOD ACROSS THIS REGION AS DEEPENING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SHIFT EWD. MODELS FORECAST 60+F SURFACE DEW POINTS EXTENDING INTO THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT... WHICH WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR MODERATE INSTABILITY BY THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. SHEAR IS ALSO FORECAST TO BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS AND SMALL LINES/BOW ECHOES AS STORMS DEVELOP AND SHIFT QUICKLY EWD INTO THE WRN/NRN GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE EVENING. ...NRN ROCKIES INTO ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS... STRONG WSWLY MID/UPPER LEVEL JET WILL NOSE ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES FRIDAY...WHILE SURFACE COLD FRONT SHIFTS EWD INTO ERN ID AND WRN MT. SURFACE DEW POINTS SHOULD BE WELL IN THE 50S ACROSS CENTRAL MT AND POSSIBLY FARTHER WEST...SUGGESTING AIR MASS WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH. LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND CONVERGENCE/UPSLOPE FLOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD INITIATE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH A THREAT OF SUPERCELLS AND LINEAR ORGANIZATION AS ACTIVITY SPREADS EWD ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN MT DURING THE EVENING. ..EVANS.. 06/04/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 4 17:44:13 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 04 Jun 2004 12:44:13 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200406041744.i54Hi0828835@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 041741 SWODY2 SPC AC 041740 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1240 PM CDT FRI JUN 04 2004 VALID 051200Z - 061200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE ANJ 40 SSW HTL 55 NW LAF 50 NW CGI 40 SSE PRX 10 SSE FTW 60 NW ABI 25 NNW TCC 20 SSW TAD 25 W LHX 25 ESE LAA 30 NW GCK 40 WSW OFK 15 N STC 15 ENE INL. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NNW ISN 30 N 4BQ 40 NNW SHR BZN 60 N BOI 50 SE ALW 65 ENE 63S. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE TLH 50 ENE MCN 10 NNE RDU 30 NNE LYH 45 ESE PKB 15 SSE JHW 25 SSE PSM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSE PSX 15 NNE SAT 10 W DRT ...CONT... 40 E DUG 45 W TCS 20 S ABQ 50 WSW ALS 25 ESE ASE 25 WSW FCL 15 SW GCC WEY 45 ENE SUN 30 SW BOI 10 W BNO 15 WNW DLS 15 E SEA 45 ENE BLI ...CONT... 75 NW MOT 10 ESE RAP 35 ESE CDR 25 SSW MHN 20 NW BUB 15 WSW FAR 55 WNW RRT ...CONT... 20 SE APN 10 NNE JXN 15 WNW HUF 20 W MEM 35 W JAN 30 S GPT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO THE NRN/WRN GREAT LAKES... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE NRN ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE U.S. ON SATURDAY WITH NWLY FLOW PERSISTING OVER THE CENTRAL STATES. A STRONG PACIFIC TROUGH WILL MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW THIS PERIOD. MEANWHILE...THE UPPER TROUGH...CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL/ SRN APPALACHIANS WILL DEAMPLIFY AS IT TRACKS TOWARD SRN NEW ENGLAND. ...CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS... ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS TO MID/LOWER MO VALLEY...WITH A SECOND AREA ACROSS THE NRN MS VALLEY EWD TO THE WRN/NRN GREAT LAKES. MODELS INDICATE SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS ON SATURDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT TRACKING EAST AND SOUTH ACROSS THE NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER/MID MS VALLEY TO GREAT LAKES REGION. SSWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO THE EAST OF THE COLD FRONT WILL ADVECT MOISTURE N AND NEWD...WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS FROM SWRN IA TO THE OK/TX PANHANDLES AND OK IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. PLUME OF VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL BE OVER THIS REGION ON SATURDAY CONTRIBUTING TO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. CLUSTERS OF STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS WITH THIS ACTIVITY WEAKENING IN THE MORNING. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH ONE OR TWO SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVING SEWD WITHIN THE NW FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BREAK THE CAP...WITH ACTIVITY INITIALLY DEVELOPING BY EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS NEB AND THEN SWWD ALONG THE FRONT INTO KS AND THE OK/TX PANHANDLES. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. AS THE SSWLY LLJ INCREASES OVER THE SRN PLAINS...STORMS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE INTO ONE OR MORE MCS/S WITH A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. ...NRN MS RIVER VALLEY INTO THE NRN/WRN GREAT LAKES... A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING SEWD ACROSS MN WILL BE AMPLIFIED BY A CENTRAL CANADA TROUGH MOVING TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. SSWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL ADVECT LOWER-MID 60S SURFACE DEWPOINTS INTO THE NRN MS VALLEY/WRN GREAT LAKES... CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE INSTABILITY EXTENDING FROM IA NEWD ACROSS ERN MN/WI. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AND WILL LIKELY RE-INTENSIFY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS...WITH STORMS EVOLVING INTO A SQUALL AS ACTIVITY MOVES EWD ACROSS THE WRN/NRN GREAT LAKES SATURDAY EVENING. ...NRN ROCKIES INTO ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS... SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER 40N 137W PER WV IMAGERY...WILL TRACK NEWD ACROSS ID BY 06/00Z AND TO THE HIGH PLAINS OF MT BY 12Z SUNDAY...AS A LARGE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INLAND ACROSS THE PAC NW. A SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEAD SHORT WAVE WILL TRACK EWD ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN ID BY 00Z...AND THEN EWD OVER MT SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT. UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE DIVERGENT THROUGH THE PERIOD INCREASING THE LARGE SCALE ASCENT FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE ALREADY IN THE 50S ACROSS ERN WA/ORE INTO CENTRAL/NRN ID...WITH THESE SAME VALUES EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS MT ON SATURDAY. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES SHOULD RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE/UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE MAXIMIZED BENEATH INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT ALOFT WITH THE TROUGH. 50 KT OF SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND LINEAR ORGANIZATION AS ACTIVITY SPREADS EWD ACROSS CENTRAL-ERN MT DURING THE EVENING. ...COASTAL REGIONS OF MID-SRN ATLANTIC STATES SWD TO FL... SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO BE OVER VA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING SWWD TO THE FL PANHANDLE WILL MOVE SLOWLY ESEWD TOWARD THE COAST. THIS SLOW MOVEMENT IS DUE TO THE WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE BOUNDARY BECOMING PARALLEL TO MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW. AIR MASS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT FROM FL NWD TO VA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOIST AND UNSTABLE. HOWEVER...RATHER WEAK UPPER FORCING AND WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. HOWEVER...GIVEN MODERATE INSTABILITY AND SOME CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND SEA/LAKE BREEZES...STORMS SHOULD FORM DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. ..PETERS.. 06/04/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 5 07:38:40 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 05 Jun 2004 02:38:40 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200406050738.i557cQ832754@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 050735 SWODY2 SPC AC 050733 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0233 AM CDT SAT JUN 05 2004 VALID 061200Z - 071200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WNW RRT 60 W AXN 35 NNW PIR 50 SE RAP 45 SSE GCC 20 S 3HT 20 NNE HVR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ENE INL 30 SSE BRD 15 E RWF 30 ESE FSD 55 WNW OFK 25 WSW EAR 30 NW RSL 15 ENE P28 35 NNW BVO 20 E MKC 35 ENE DSM 50 SSE RST 10 WNW AUW 25 NNW ANJ ...CONT... 25 WNW PBG 10 SE SYR 30 S DUJ 35 NNW CRW 10 WSW 5I3 25 SSW BLF 10 W SHD 15 W BWI 40 NE SBY ...CONT... 20 ESE BPT 60 SSW CLL 60 NW LRD ...CONT... 65 WNW MRF 15 N GDP 15 W DGW 20 SE WRL 35 SE JAC 25 WSW BNO 45 NW DLS 40 ENE BLI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CENTRAL MT ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS... ...NRN PLAINS... UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE PAC NW SUNDAY WITH ASSOCIATED WLY MID/UPPER LEVEL JET EXTENDING FROM ORE ACROSS MUCH OF MT AND ND. SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO EJECT AWAY FROM MAIN CIRCULATION AND ENHANCE LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE ENEWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD AND FOCUS STRONG SLY LLJ OVER THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS AFTER DARK. THE LLJ WILL BECOME MORE SWLY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND NOSE ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY. SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL LIKELY BE WELL IN THE 50S ACROSS THE WRN DAKOTAS AND ERN MT DURING THE AFTERNOON...DESPITE DIURNAL MIXING...DUE TO STRONG CAPPING OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS. HOWEVER...LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN QUITE STEEP AND WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY OVER MUCH OF THE REGION BY LATE IN THE DAY. ATTM...EXPECT CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND BECOME SEVERE BY THE MID AFTERNOON OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND NEAR DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL MT. THESE STORMS WILL DEVELOP WITHIN STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS...WITH ACTIVITY LIKELY BECOMING INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED/SEVERE AS STORMS SPREAD INTO MODERATE INSTABILITY OVER ERN MT THROUGH THE EARLY/MID EVENING. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF ACTIVITY WERE TO ORGANIZE INTO ONE OR TWO BOW ECHO CLUSTERS WITH AN INCREASED THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS INTO ERN MT/WRN ND. STORMS MAY BECOME INCREASINGLY ELEVATED INTO THE DAKOTAS LATER SUNDAY NIGHT...THOUGH FEED OF STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL TO MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL MAINTAIN A THREAT OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY AFTER 06Z. ...MID MS RIVER INTO OH RIVER VALLEY... SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BECOME SEPARATED FROM MAIN BRANCH OF WLYS AND MEANDER ACROSS THE MID MS/LOWER OH RIVER VALLEYS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WEAK SURFACE FRONT/TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO REMAIN ALONG A NE-SW ORIENTATION DURING THE DAY...AND COMBINE WITH MID LEVEL TROUGH TO FOCUS RENEWED CONVECTIVE GROWTH DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THIS REGION. AREA WILL REMAIN ALONG NERN EXTENT OF RICH GULF MOISTURE/MODERATE INSTABILITY AXIS WHICH WILL ENHANCE UPDRAFT STRENGTHS...DESPITE THE WEAK LOW AND DEEP TROPOSPHERIC SHEAR. ISOLATED/BRIEF SEVERE MAY ACCOMPANY ACTIVITY SPREADING EWD ACROSS THE OH RIVER VALLEY DURING THE EVENING. ..EVANS.. 06/05/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 5 17:38:58 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 05 Jun 2004 12:38:58 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200406051740.i55He4815899@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 051737 SWODY2 SPC AC 051734 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1234 PM CDT SAT JUN 05 2004 VALID 061200Z - 071200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 N GFK GFK JMS Y22 4BQ BIL LWT 80 NW GGW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DUJ AOO HGR CHO SSU LOZ BWG EVV IND FDY CAK DUJ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W RRT 30 SSE TVF 10 ESE AXN 10 ESE FRM 40 SSW FOD OMA FNB CNK HUT CNU SZL IRK MSN MTW 55 WNW ANJ ...CONT... 20 SSE ELP 4SL ALS 40 SSE LIC BFF 10 SE 81V 50 WSW GCC MQM BOI BNO 70 ENE RDM PDT PUW 55 NE 63S. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SUNDAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS.... SUBTROPICAL RIDGING APPEARS LIKELY TO PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU/ROCKIES AT LEAST ONE MORE DAY...BUT MODELS SUGGEST UPPER LOW/TROUGH...NOW OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC...WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING SOUTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN STATES THIS FORECAST PERIOD. EXIT REGION OF INITIAL STRONG...BROADLY CYCLONIC MID/UPPER JET IS ALREADY BEGINNING TO NOSE INTO THE NORTHERN PACIFIC COAST...AND JET CORE IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION/NORTHERN ROCKIES LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. SPLIT BELTS OF MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES WILL PERSIST DOWNSTREAM... EAST OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE ATLANTIC COAST. PAIR OF EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES ARE CURRENTLY IN PHASE IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. HOWEVER... NORTHERN BRANCH TROUGH IS PROGGED TO BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE... ADVANCING ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...WHILE TROUGH IN WEAKER SOUTHERN BRANCH SLOWLY SHIFTS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ...ROCKIES INTO PLAINS... AS CORE OF INITIAL JET STREAK PROPAGATES INTO THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND ROCKIES SUNDAY...EXIT REGION WILL NOSE EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTH CENTRAL U.S./CANADIAN BORDER. STRONG MID-LEVEL WARMING IS PROGGED TO OCCUR ALONG/SOUTH OF JET AXIS...WITH ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ADVECTING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PLAINS. WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE STILL CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG/SOUTH OF SOUTHERN BRANCH JET...STRONG MID-LEVEL INHIBITION LIKELY WILL SUPPRESS DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH PRIMARY SURFACE CYCLONE FORMING IN THE LEE OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES...SIGNIFICANT LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL U.S. APPEARS LIKELY TO BE CONFINED TO VICINITY OF THERMAL LOW... BENEATH CAPPED ENVIRONMENT ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING/WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. WHILE THIS COMPLICATES FORECAST...IT APPEARS MOISTURE CURRENTLY IN PLACE...WITH STRONG HEATING...WILL BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDERSTORMS NEAR UPPER JET AXIS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN/ EASTERN MONTANA BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY SHOULD INITIATE NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BEFORE SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD IN ENVIRONMENT WITH DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER SUPPORTIVE OF DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS. ALTHOUGH CAPE WILL BE RELATIVE WEAK...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES APPEAR LIKELY TO BE SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IN FAVORABLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FARTHER DOWNSTREAM... ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. FORCING FOR ACTIVITY IS MORE UNCERTAIN...BUT WEAKER CAPPING...AND STRONGER WARM ADVECTION NORTH OF MID-LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT IS PROGGED BENEATH DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW REGIME BY SUNDAY EVENING. ...GREAT LAKES... WHILE STRONGER MID/UPPER FORCING AHEAD OF NORTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT INTO ONTARIO/QUEBEC EARLY IN THE DAY... STRONGER BELT OF LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND ASSOCIATED CONFLUENT BAND IS PROGGED TO LAG BEHIND OVER LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS. GIVEN LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL FOR VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS ACROSS THIS REGION. HOWEVER... SHEAR PROFILES WILL REMAIN ENHANCED ON SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF MODERATE CYCLONIC MID/UPPER JET...PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN...WHERE AN ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORM WILL BE POSSIBLE. ...SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.. WEAK SOUTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE AROUND SUBTROPICAL RIDGE INTO BROAD TROUGH OVER THE GULF STATES. THOUGH FLOW FIELDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY WEAK...CAPE ASSOCIATED WITH MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IN PLACE ACROSS REGION WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG UPDRAFTS WITH HEAVY RAIN...PERHAPS SOME HAIL. WITH FORCING/INSTABILITY SUFFICIENT FOR ONE OR MORE SMALL CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS...POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS ALONG OUTFLOWS APPEARS PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT...HOWEVER. ..KERR.. 06/05/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 5 17:38:58 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 05 Jun 2004 12:38:58 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200406051741.i55Hf6816432@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 051737 SWODY2 SPC AC 051734 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1234 PM CDT SAT JUN 05 2004 VALID 061200Z - 071200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 N GFK GFK JMS Y22 4BQ BIL LWT 80 NW GGW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DUJ AOO HGR CHO SSU LOZ BWG EVV IND FDY CAK DUJ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W RRT 30 SSE TVF 10 ESE AXN 10 ESE FRM 40 SSW FOD OMA FNB CNK HUT CNU SZL IRK MSN MTW 55 WNW ANJ ...CONT... 20 SSE ELP 4SL ALS 40 SSE LIC BFF 10 SE 81V 50 WSW GCC MQM BOI BNO 70 ENE RDM PDT PUW 55 NE 63S. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SUNDAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS.... SUBTROPICAL RIDGING APPEARS LIKELY TO PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU/ROCKIES AT LEAST ONE MORE DAY...BUT MODELS SUGGEST UPPER LOW/TROUGH...NOW OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC...WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING SOUTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN STATES THIS FORECAST PERIOD. EXIT REGION OF INITIAL STRONG...BROADLY CYCLONIC MID/UPPER JET IS ALREADY BEGINNING TO NOSE INTO THE NORTHERN PACIFIC COAST...AND JET CORE IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION/NORTHERN ROCKIES LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. SPLIT BELTS OF MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES WILL PERSIST DOWNSTREAM... EAST OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE ATLANTIC COAST. PAIR OF EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES ARE CURRENTLY IN PHASE IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. HOWEVER... NORTHERN BRANCH TROUGH IS PROGGED TO BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE... ADVANCING ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...WHILE TROUGH IN WEAKER SOUTHERN BRANCH SLOWLY SHIFTS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ...ROCKIES INTO PLAINS... AS CORE OF INITIAL JET STREAK PROPAGATES INTO THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND ROCKIES SUNDAY...EXIT REGION WILL NOSE EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTH CENTRAL U.S./CANADIAN BORDER. STRONG MID-LEVEL WARMING IS PROGGED TO OCCUR ALONG/SOUTH OF JET AXIS...WITH ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ADVECTING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PLAINS. WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE STILL CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG/SOUTH OF SOUTHERN BRANCH JET...STRONG MID-LEVEL INHIBITION LIKELY WILL SUPPRESS DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH PRIMARY SURFACE CYCLONE FORMING IN THE LEE OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES...SIGNIFICANT LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL U.S. APPEARS LIKELY TO BE CONFINED TO VICINITY OF THERMAL LOW... BENEATH CAPPED ENVIRONMENT ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING/WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. WHILE THIS COMPLICATES FORECAST...IT APPEARS MOISTURE CURRENTLY IN PLACE...WITH STRONG HEATING...WILL BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDERSTORMS NEAR UPPER JET AXIS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN/ EASTERN MONTANA BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY SHOULD INITIATE NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BEFORE SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD IN ENVIRONMENT WITH DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER SUPPORTIVE OF DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS. ALTHOUGH CAPE WILL BE RELATIVE WEAK...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES APPEAR LIKELY TO BE SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IN FAVORABLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FARTHER DOWNSTREAM... ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. FORCING FOR ACTIVITY IS MORE UNCERTAIN...BUT WEAKER CAPPING...AND STRONGER WARM ADVECTION NORTH OF MID-LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT IS PROGGED BENEATH DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW REGIME BY SUNDAY EVENING. ...GREAT LAKES... WHILE STRONGER MID/UPPER FORCING AHEAD OF NORTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT INTO ONTARIO/QUEBEC EARLY IN THE DAY... STRONGER BELT OF LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND ASSOCIATED CONFLUENT BAND IS PROGGED TO LAG BEHIND OVER LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS. GIVEN LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL FOR VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS ACROSS THIS REGION. HOWEVER... SHEAR PROFILES WILL REMAIN ENHANCED ON SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF MODERATE CYCLONIC MID/UPPER JET...PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN...WHERE AN ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORM WILL BE POSSIBLE. ...SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.. WEAK SOUTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE AROUND SUBTROPICAL RIDGE INTO BROAD TROUGH OVER THE GULF STATES. THOUGH FLOW FIELDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY WEAK...CAPE ASSOCIATED WITH MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IN PLACE ACROSS REGION WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG UPDRAFTS WITH HEAVY RAIN...PERHAPS SOME HAIL. WITH FORCING/INSTABILITY SUFFICIENT FOR ONE OR MORE SMALL CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS...POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS ALONG OUTFLOWS APPEARS PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT...HOWEVER. ..KERR.. 06/05/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 6 07:26:11 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 06 Jun 2004 02:26:11 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200406060725.i567Pr819273@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 060723 SWODY2 SPC AC 060721 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0221 AM CDT SUN JUN 06 2004 VALID 071200Z - 081200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ENE MQT 30 SSE LSE VTN 45 E DGW 45 S 81V 35 NE 81V 50 NNW ABR 30 SE RRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 WNW MRF 35 SW ROW 35 WNW TCC 35 S LHX 40 ESE LIC 20 WNW SNY 10 N DGW 15 SSW GCC 40 E 4BQ 20 SSE DVL 50 WNW RRT ...CONT... 160 E APN MKE 30 ESE ALO 25 W SUX BUB 55 WSW HLC 50 E DHT 45 ENE HOB 40 SSW P07. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WSW PNS 35 NW LUL 40 ENE ELD 50 SE HRO 35 WSW STL 30 SW HUF 20 WSW HTS 45 NNE SHD 20 E SBY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NNE GGW 30 ESE HLN 65 NNE BOI 35 NE LMT 25 SSE EUG 30 S OLM 20 NE BLI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE NRN PLAINS AND NRN MS RIVER VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE DIGGING SWD ALONG THE ORE AND NRN CA COAST MONDAY...WITH EJECTING UPPER LOW SHEARING EWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AS IT LIFTS ENEWD INTO CENTRAL MANITOBA. OTHERWISE...RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER MUCH OF THE SRN AND ERN STATES. AXIS OF RICH GULF MOISTURE WILL LIKELY EXTEND WELL INTO THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY BY THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO SHIFT SWD BEFORE STALLING FROM NERN MN INTO SWRN SD. ...NRN PLAINS INTO THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY... EXPECT ORGANIZED AND POTENTIALLY SEVERE MCS WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS NRN MN EARLY IN THE PERIOD. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AND/OR LIFT NEWD INTO ONTARIO DURING THE MORNING. VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S WILL SUPPLY STRONG INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY SURFACE FRONT AND OUTFLOW FROM MORNING STORMS BY THE MID AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THESE LAPSE RATES WILL ALSO PROVIDE A SUBSTANTIAL CAP ALONG THE FRONT. COMBINATION OF SURFACE HEATING AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAY OVERCOME CAP AND SUPPORT VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE DAY INTO MN/WI ALONG NERN PERIPHERY OF STRONGER CAPPING. FORECAST SHEAR PROFILES WILL REMAIN MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR SUPERCELLS...WITH ATTENDANT THREATS OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES SHOULD CAP BREAK. ISOLATED SURFACE BASED DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR ALONG WRN PORTION OF THE FRONT AND NEAR TRIPLE POINT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF WRN SD/FAR ERN WY/WRN NEB WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW AND STRONG MIXING MAY OVERCOME CAP. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WOULD ACCOMPANY STORMS OVER THIS REGION SHOULD THEY FORM LATE IN THE DAY AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING. EVEN IF SURFACE-BASED STORMS FAIL TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON...SLY LLJ IS FORECAST TO INCREASE DURING THE LATE EVENING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY. LOW LEVEL WAA WILL LIKELY SUPPORT ONE OR TWO MCSS OVER SD INTO THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY AFTER DARK...EITHER FROM NEW DEVELOPMENT OR THROUGH EVOLUTION OF DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MAINTAIN A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD FROM PORTIONS OF SD INTO THE NWRN GREAT LAKES REGION. ...SOUTHEAST... RELATIVELY COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS THIS REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON. THOUGH LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL BE LACKING...SURFACE CONVERGENCE FROM SEA BREEZES AND RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SHOULD THEREFORE FOCUS STRONG TO SEVERE PULSE-TYPE THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EARLY EVENING. ...CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS... FLOW WILL SLACKEN CONSIDERABLY ACROSS THIS REGION MONDAY...THOUGH VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL OVERSPREAD WRN EDGE OF LOW LEVEL MOIST AXIS. STRONG HEATING MAY MIX THROUGH CAP AND ALLOW ISOLATED OR CLUSTER CONVECTION TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY AND PERSIST INTO THE EVENING...WITH ATTENDANT THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ..EVANS.. 06/06/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 6 17:40:44 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 06 Jun 2004 12:40:44 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200406061740.i56HeP804934@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 061739 SWODY2 SPC AC 061737 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1237 PM CDT SUN JUN 06 2004 VALID 071200Z - 081200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE ANJ ESC GRB MSN ALO FOD 35 N SUX YKN VTN CDR RAP 35 NNW PHP 40 WNW ABR GFK 20 WNW RRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNE MTC MBS 25 NNW MKG RFD OMA OFK ANW MHN MCK 30 NW GLD LAR CPR GCC DIK 55 N MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ENE HVR HVR MSO S80 65 ENE 4LW MHS 35 NNE 4BK PDX 15 ENE BLI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SE ELP ALM LVS LAA 20 ENE EHA CVS INK 40 SE P07. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MFE HDO JCT FSI PNC CNU IRK BMI 15 S HTS SSU AOO IPT 15 NNW JHW ...CONT... 15 WNW MSS RUT 15 S PSM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.... SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS/JET STREAKS COMPRISING BROADER SCALE NORTHEAST PACIFIC CIRCULATION WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS INLAND TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. MOST SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE AND STRONGER JET CORE APPEARS TO BE TURNING EASTWARD INLAND ACROSS OREGON EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS SUGGEST THIS FEATURE WILL ACCELERATE EAST NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL U.S./CANADIAN BORDER BY EARLY MONDAY...BEFORE CONTINUING ACROSS ONTARIO THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MEANWHILE...UPSTREAM...ANOTHER JET STREAK IS PROGGED TO DIG SOUTHWARD OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST...WITH ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER CIRCULATION SHIFTING SOUTHWARD NEAR IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS. AHEAD OF DEVELOPING PACIFIC COAST TROUGH...MID/ UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE REST OF THE NATION WILL REMAIN RATHER WEAK... BUT WILL TAKE ON INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT. ...NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... IN RESPONSE TO EVOLVING UPPER FLOW PATTERN...VERY WARM AIR MASS IS IN THE PROCESS OF ADVECTING OFF THE PLATEAU AND ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS. THUS...WHILE RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS AROUND 70F...BEGINS TO ADVECT NORTHWARD AROUND WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC RIDGE...DEEPENING MOIST BOUNDARY WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY CAPPED FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/ BY 12Z MONDAY MORNING...MID-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE WITH 700 MB TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM +12C TO +18C IS PROGGED TO EXTEND FROM EASTERN COLORADO INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA. STRONGER LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE RAPIDLY SHIFTING INTO WESTERN ONTARIO BY THIS TIME...BUT BAND OF CONVECTION BASED ABOVE CAPPING INVERSION MAY EXTEND SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CAPE FOR PARCELS FORCED TO LEVEL OF FREE CONVECTION ABOVE 700 MB AS HIGH AS 1000 J/KG. THIS WILL SUPPORT THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL IN STRONGER CELLS...AS ACTIVITY SHIFTS TOWARD THE ARROWHEAD...AND POSSIBLE DEVELOPS SOUTHWARD TOWARD AREAS NORTH OF MINNEAPOLIS THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY. INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON...IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO UPPER JET AXIS...JUST SOUTHEAST OF PRIMARY SURFACE CYCLONE...MODELS SUGGEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AND SURFACE HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO POTENTIAL MODERATE SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD. WITH 100 MB MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE APPROACHING 2000 J/KG...AND SUFFICIENT MID-LEVEL LIFT TO MAINTAIN WEAKER CAPPING...ISOLATED SUPERCELLS APPEAR POSSIBLE. STRONGEST STORMS MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES AS WELL. MODELS SUGGEST LOW/MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL BECOME REFOCUSED ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN BY MONDAY EVENING...NEAR SOUTHERN FRINGE OF UPPER JET...ON NOSE OF THERMAL RIDGE EXTENDING OUT OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. SHEAR PROFILES ALONG 40 TO 50 KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. THOUGH SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ABOUT TIMING OF ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...WHICH MAY BE MOSTLY AFTER ONSET OF SURFACE COOLING...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 2000 TO 3000 J/KG...SUPPORTIVE OF VERY LARGE HAIL WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A LINGERING RISK OF TORNADOES INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS. ...HIGH PLAINS... CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY TO BE LIMITED TO IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF HIGHER TERRAIN...WHERE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES CAN BE REACHED. WITH ANY ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS...VERY DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF MICRO BURSTS. ...EAST TEXAS INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES... RELATIVELY WEAK INHIBITION AND SEASONABLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD ALLOW SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITH DAYTIME HEATING ACROSS INLAND AREAS AND ALONG SEA BREEZES. MID/UPPER IMPULSES ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANT SOUTHERN BRANCH JET/DECAYED CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS MAY SUPPORT SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF STORMS. ..KERR.. 06/06/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 7 07:09:43 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 07 Jun 2004 02:09:43 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200406070709.i5779N805327@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 070707 SWODY2 SPC AC 070705 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0205 AM CDT MON JUN 07 2004 VALID 081200Z - 091200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NE APN 15 SSE MTW 15 NE DBQ 35 NW DSM BUB 20 WNW MCK 40 SSW IML 50 ENE FCL 45 WNW BFF 45 SSW RAP 30 SSW ATY 30 ENE STC 60 NNE CMX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 W MRF 35 WNW CNM 30 E ROW 40 N HOB 25 NW MAF 10 SSW P07. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSE HUL 45 WSW ALB 25 E BFD 15 S CLE 30 SSE CGX 40 NW IRK 25 WNW BIE 30 SSE MCK 25 WSW EHA 25 E RTN 20 W DEN 35 NNE RWL 25 NNE BPI 45 SW OWY 25 SE RNO 30 WSW SAC 55 SW UKI ...CONT... 25 SSW AST 50 SE SEA 25 SW GEG 35 N SHR 30 WSW REJ 55 N ATY 55 ENE ELO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE CEW 35 SW HSV 30 SW MKL 65 SW MEM 40 ESE 7R4 ...CONT... 60 W MFE 35 E JCT 35 ENE FSI 30 SE CNU 15 WSW BMG 15 NNE UNI 10 NE EKN 50 SW RIC 45 E RWI 35 ESE EWN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE DIGGING SLOWLY SWD ALONG THE ORE/NRN CA COAST TUESDAY...WITH BROAD/FLAT RIDGE PERSISTING DOWNSTREAM OVER THE NRN PLAINS AND NRN GREAT LAKES. A SERIES OF SUBTLE DISTURBANCES WILL REMAIN TRAPPED WITHIN WEAK FLOW REGIME OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES...AND SUSTAIN CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION ACROSS THESE AREAS. ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES... PRIMARY FOCUS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ALONG SURFACE COLD FRONT SHIFTING SLOWLY SWD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND SEWD INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY. NOCTURNAL MCS WILL LIKELY DIMINISH DURING THE MORNING OVER NRN NEB/SERN SD INTO MN... THOUGH A THREAT OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS EARLY IN THE DAY. A VERY WARM AND MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIKELY REMAIN CAPPED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY INTO THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY/GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER BY LATE IN THE DAY...CONVERGENCE INVOF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES/SURFACE FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT VIGOROUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM THE MID MO RIVER VALLEY ENEWD INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES. COMBINATION OF CAPE AND SHEAR APPEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS AND MULTICELL CLUSTERS...WITH ACTIVITY LIKELY ORGANIZING INTO ONE OR MORE SEVERE MCSS SHIFTING EWD INTO NRN IA AND THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT. FARTHER SW...COMBINATION OF UPSLOPE FLOW AND SURFACE HEATING MAY ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS OF NERN CO/SERN WY/WRN NEB. VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODEST SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE HAIL/WIND...AND POSSIBLY A SUPERCELLULAR TORNADO...AS THESE STORMS DEVELOP AND SPREAD ENEWD THROUGH THE EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL ALSO LIKELY ORGANIZE INTO A SEVERE MCS INTO NRN/CENTRAL NEB AND SRN SD OVERNIGHT. ..EVANS.. 06/07/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 7 17:26:51 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 07 Jun 2004 12:26:51 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200406071726.i57HQU818816@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 071724 SWODY2 SPC AC 071723 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1223 PM CDT MON JUN 07 2004 VALID 081200Z - 091200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NNE MTC 20 NE BEH 15 E DSM 30 E HSI 25 SSW MCK 20 ESE DEN 15 SE DGW 30 S RAP 25 E HON 45 E STC 25 NW IWD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 W MFE 10 ENE JCT 35 ENE FSI 30 NE CNU 15 WSW BMG 15 NNE UNI 10 NE EKN 50 SW RIC 45 E RWI 35 ESE EWN ...CONT... 25 SE CEW 35 SW HSV 30 SW MKL 65 SW MEM 40 ESE 7R4 ...CONT... 65 SE ELP 20 SSE 4CR 45 WNW RTN 25 W 4FC 40 NW RWL 45 WSW BPI 30 N BAM 30 SSE RNO 10 SE SAC 60 NW SFO ...CONT... 25 SSW AST 50 SE SEA 50 NNE MSO 20 W 3HT 45 NNW REJ 55 N ATY 55 ENE ELO ...CONT... 45 SSE HUL 45 WSW ALB 25 E BFD 15 S CLE 30 SSE CGX 40 NW IRK 25 WNW BIE 20 NW HLC 20 WSW EHA 55 S CVS 25 S INK 40 SSW P07. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER WRN OREGON IS FORECAST TO MOVE SWD TOMORROW ACROSS NRN CA AS DOWNSTREAM RIDGE AMPLIFIES SLIGHTLY OVER NRN HIGH PLAINS. DOWNSTREAM UPPER LOW OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL PROGRESS EWD ACROSS HUDSON BAY INTO QUEBEC...WITH BAND OF VERY STRONG WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT EXTENDING ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER. FARTHER SOUTH...MODELS INDICATE A SERIES OF WEAK VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL MOVE NNEWD ALONG A CYCLONIC SHEAR ZONE ACROSS CENTRAL TX INTO ERN OK. AT THE SURFACE THE PRIMARY FRONT FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY SEWD THROUGH THE PERIOD...REACHING A LAKE HURON/SRN WI/NERN CO LINE BY 09/12Z. ...UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE OCCURRING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD FROM NRN NEB/ERN SD ENEWD ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS MN/NWRN WI INTO LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE MORNING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS. AIR MASS NEAR THE FRONT WILL REMAIN MOIST WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS OF 65-70F FROM NEB NEWD INTO WI AND MI...AND DAYTIME HEATING SOUTH OF THE FRONT AND/OR CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL DESTABILIZE THE AIR MASS SUBSTANTIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE REACHING 2000-3000 J/KG. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THIS AREA AS STRONG HEATING WEAKENS THE CAP NEAR THE EFFECTIVE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARIES. ALTHOUGH FLOW ALOFT/DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MARGINAL ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT... SUFFICIENT DRY AIR ALOFT IN MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS COUPLED WITH STRONG INSTABILITY SUGGEST THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EWD AND SLOWLY SEWD DURING THE NIGHT...WITH POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS TO CONTINUE AFTER 03-06Z. FARTHER WEST OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...EASTERLY COMPONENT TO LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL ADVECT MOISTURE WWD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OF NERN CO AND SERN WY WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS NEAR 55F SPREADING TOWARD THE FRONT RANGE. DYNAMIC SUPPORT ALOFT WILL BE VERY MINIMAL AS WEAK HEIGHT RISES SPREAD OVER THE AREA AND THIS MAY LIMIT COVERAGE OF CONVECTION ACROSS SERN WY/NERN CO/NEB PANHANDLE AREA. HOWEVER...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND WIND PROFILES THAT VEER AND INCREASE WITH HEIGHT INDICATE A CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT FOR ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP. ...NRN CA INTO OREGON... STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH COLD UPPER LOW DROPPING SWD INTO NRN CA ARE EXPECTED TO ENHANCE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. ALTHOUGH MLCAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE AOB 500 J/KG...STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING WITHIN LEFT EXIT REGION OF MID/UPPER LEVEL JET WILL AID DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED REGIONS OF NRN CA INTO SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON. STRONGER CELLS MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY SURFACE WINDS. ...CENTRAL/ERN TX... ETA MODEL DEVELOPS A 35-45 KT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS THIS REGION DURING THE DAY CONTRIBUTING TO STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR/SRH. GUIDANCE FROM ALL MODELS /ETA..ETAKF...GFS...AND SREF/ INDICATE HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION DEVELOPING EARLY IN THE PERIOD IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MID LEVEL CYCLONIC SHEAR ZONE. THIS WILL LIMIT HEATING AND CONTRIBUTE TO DEVELOPMENT OF NEARLY MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE REGION. ALTHOUGH CAPE WILL BE MARGINAL...THE STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR MAY SUPPORT A FEW EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WITH THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO. ..WEISS.. 06/07/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 8 07:26:00 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 08 Jun 2004 02:26:00 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200406080725.i587Pb801044@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 080723 SWODY2 SPC AC 080722 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0222 AM CDT TUE JUN 08 2004 VALID 091200Z - 101200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW CYS 50 WSW CPR BPI 30 W MLD 40 SW SUN 55 SW 27U 20 WSW BTM 25 ENE 3HT 55 NE 4BQ 30 N VTN 35 NW BBW 30 WNW HLC 30 ESE LIC 20 WSW CYS. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NNW 3B1 15 S HUL ...CONT... 15 NE PSM 50 SE UCA 10 NNE ERI ...CONT... 30 SE DTW 45 ESE MMO 25 NE MLI 20 SW MSN 65 E APN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW GON 35 S MSV 15 ENE AOO 30 ENE EKN 25 NW LYH 35 NNE RDU HSE ...CONT... 30 W BVE 20 S HEZ 40 NE PBF 10 SE UNO 45 SSW TBN 30 W FSM 45 SSE TYR 25 E PSX ...CONT... 10 WNW LRD 60 NNW SAT 20 N MWL 50 NNE OKC ICT 35 SW SLN 35 SW HLC 50 E LAA 35 SSE HOB 80 SSE MRF ...CONT... 70 SSW GDP 40 SSW ROW SAF 20 NE CEZ 25 N U17 30 ESE P38 55 NE NID 40 NNW BFL 10 WSW SCK 10 SSW MHS 50 NNW RDM 70 NW 4OM ...CONT... 65 NNE ISN 45 W JMS 10 SSW AXN 45 NNW EAU ESC 55 E ANJ. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE CENTRAL/NRN HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST... ...INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE CENTRAL/NRN HIGH PLAINS... WRN U.S. UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO OPEN INTO A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH...AND BEGIN EJECTING ENEWD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. NET RESULT WILL BE AN INCREASE IN LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS INTO THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND ALONG THE LEE TROUGH FROM SRN MT INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. UPSLOPE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN INFLUX OF 50+ SFC DEW POINTS AS FAR NW AS SRN MT...SUGGESTING AIR MASS WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE ACROSS CENTRAL WY INTO ERN CO. THOUGH MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SLY IN DIRECTION...SHEAR VALUES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS AS STORMS DEVELOP AND MOVE OFF HIGHER TERRAIN FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO WY/SRN MT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STORMS WILL LIKELY CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE OR TWO ENEWD MOVING MCS/S DURING THE LATE EVENING AND MAINTAIN AT LEAST A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL INTO SD/CENTRAL NEB OVERNIGHT. A SEPARATE AREA OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING NEARER EJECTING UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL JET OVER PORTIONS OF NRN UT/ERN ID INTO SWRN MT ...WHERE INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN MARGINAL THOUGH SHEAR WILL BE RATHER STRONG. ...GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST... SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SINK SWD INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND AND THE LOWER/CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WHERE SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN RATHER HIGH. SOME CONCERN ABOUT EFFECTS OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTION ACROSS SERN CANADA AND THE CENTRAL/WRN GREAT LAKES REGARDING INSTABILITY AND MORNING CLOUDINESS. HOWEVER...WHERE SUN CAN WARM THE BOUNDARY LAYER ADEQUATELY...EXPECT CLUSTERS/LINES OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE LENGTH OF THE SWD MOVING COLD FRONT. SHEAR WILL BE STRONGER OVER THE NORTHEAST...AS REGION REMAINS IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO STRONG WLY JET OVERSPREADING SRN/ERN CANADA. THIS SUGGESTS A THREAT OF SUPERCELLS ALONG WITH SMALL LINEAR CLUSTERS/BOW ECHOES SHIFTING ESEWD INTO THE EVENING. FARTHER WEST INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...SEVERE THREAT WILL BE MORE DRIVEN BY LIKELY STRONG INSTABILITY WITHIN ABUNDANT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...SHOULD ADEQUATE HEATING DEVELOP. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY FORM INTO SEVERAL CLUSTERS/LINES WITH THE THREATS OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ..EVANS.. 06/08/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 8 17:35:00 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 08 Jun 2004 12:35:00 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200406081734.i58HYb226784@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 081732 SWODY2 SPC AC 081731 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1231 PM CDT TUE JUN 08 2004 VALID 091200Z - 101200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW CYS 50 WSW CPR BPI 30 W MLD TWF 45 WNW SUN 55 SW 27U 20 WSW BTM 25 ENE 3HT 55 NE 4BQ 50 NW PHP 15 WSW ANW 35 ESE LBF 25 SSW MCK 30 SSW GLD 35 SSE LIC 40 W LIC 20 E FCL 20 WSW CYS. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE DTW 40 SSE CGX 35 E MLI 20 SW DBQ 25 WSW LNR 20 SW OSH 55 E OSC ...CONT... 40 N BML 10 NW EPM ...CONT... 20 ENE BOS 50 SSE UCA 25 ENE ERI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NNE DVL 45 E FAR 50 ENE STC 15 NE RHI 15 WNW ANJ ...CONT... 20 SW GON 15 W AVP 15 NW AOO 50 W MRB CHO 10 E ORF ...CONT... 25 S GPT 30 ENE MCB 20 S GLH 35 WNW MEM 15 SSW POF 40 WNW POF UNO 20 S HRO 25 S PRX 25 NE CLL 15 SE PSX ...CONT... 50 NW LRD 35 WSW ABI 25 W CSM 15 NE HUT 15 N MHK 20 SSW BIE 40 SE HSI 30 ENE HLC 20 ESE EHA 40 SW LBB 15 SE P07 ...CONT... 65 WNW MRF 40 ENE TCS 30 WSW GNT PGA 25 W SGU 60 W DRA 35 ENE FAT 40 NNE SAC 30 N MHS 10 NNW BLI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN GREAT LAKES... AND NEW ENGLAND STATES... ...HIGH PLAINS/NRN ROCKIES... A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW WILL SHIFT SEWD INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ON DAY 2. AS THE UPPER-TROUGH SHIFTS EWD...A SFC LOW WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE NEWD INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. THIS WILL RESULT IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO WRN NEB...WY AND NE CO DURING THE DAY. A WEAK IMPULSE IS FORECAST BY THE ETA...ETAKF AND GFS TO EJECT NEWD OUT OF THE TROUGH INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT LIFT FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON. THE STORMS WILL DEVELOP NEAR A STATIONARY FRONT LOCATED FROM NW TO SE ACROSS ERN ID...SRN WY AND NRN CO. AS TEMPS WARM IN THE AFTERNOON...CONVECTION SHOULD INITIATE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND MOVE NEWD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION SHOW STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILES CREATING 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 35 TO 45 KT...MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH SUPERCELLS LIKELY IN THE BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS WY...NEB AND NE CO. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INVERTED V-PROFILES SUGGEST A THREAT WILL EXIST FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ALTHOUGH SUPERCELLS DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE ISOLATED...THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS THE STORMS SPREAD NEWD. ...SRN GREAT LAKES/NEW ENGLAND STATES... A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY IN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC WILL MOVE SEWD TONIGHT AND BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY ON DAY2...EXTENDING EAST TO WEST FROM NRN IA ACROSS THE CHICAGO AREA INTO LOWER MI AND NRN NY. ALTHOUGH LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SHOULD BE WEAK ACROSS THE REGION...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE THE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NECESSARY FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION AS TEMPS WARM AND THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...SHOW UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR WITH RELATIVELY WEAK MID-LEVEL FLOW. HOWEVER...0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 20 TO 30 KT WHICH STILL SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR MULTICELL SEVERE STORMS. ALTHOUGH HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS...WIND DAMAGE SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT CONSIDERING THE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL BE POSITIONED FROM EAST TO WEST ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. THE STORMS SHOULD MOVE SEWD AWAY FROM THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH THE GREATEST SEVERE THREAT OCCURRING NEAR AND JUST AFTER PEAK HEATING. STABILIZATION WILL ALLOW THE SEVERE THREAT TO SLOWLY DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING. ..BROYLES.. 06/08/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 9 07:17:55 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 09 Jun 2004 02:17:55 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200406090717.i597HU217994@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 090715 SWODY2 SPC AC 090714 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0214 AM CDT WED JUN 09 2004 VALID 101200Z - 111200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NW CNK RSL 55 ESE GLD 25 NNE SNY 20 W CDR 30 WNW RAP 25 N PHP 60 ENE ANW 35 SSW OLU 15 NW CNK. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW CDS 35 SSE AMA 35 SW GCK 50 W CDR 45 W 4BQ 50 NNW MLS OLF 40 WSW DVL 30 S FAR 10 NNE RWF 60 NE OMA 40 SSE BIE 30 NNW CDS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 WNW RRT 40 SSW BJI 25 WNW EAU 35 S JXN 20 W DUJ 10 NE ISP ...CONT... 30 SW MOB 20 NNW MEI 35 ENE TUP 55 NNE MKL 20 SW CGI 20 ENE UNO 35 NNE TYR 20 S PSX ...CONT... 75 S MRF 15 ENE HOB 55 S LAA 10 WSW LIC 40 E DPG 20 E EKO 70 ESE BNO 55 NNW 4OM. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF NEB...SD...KS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A LARGER PORTION OF THE GREAT PLAINS... ...PLAINS... WRN U.S. UPPER LOW /NOW OVER CENTRAL CA/ WILL EJECT ENEWD AS AN OPEN TROUGH THURSDAY. SYSTEM WILL TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT AND ALLOW SEASONABLY STRONG WSWLY FLOW ALOFT TO OVERSPREAD THE HIGH PLAINS...AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT FROM THE OK/NRN TX PANHANDLE NWD INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS. APPROACHING UPPER SYSTEM WILL ALSO SUPPORT SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER WRN KS...AND SERN MT...AS LARGE AREA OF PRESSURE FALLS DEEPENS LEE TROUGH ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL BE ALIGNED WITH THE DRY LINE AND PUSH INTO WRN KS/WRN TX DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON...WITH PRIMARY PUSH SOUTH OF LOW CENTER ACROSS WRN KS INTO S-CENTRAL NEB LATE IN THE DAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY SUPPORT WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH WILL LIKELY BE SIGNIFICANT...THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. STEEP LAPSE RATES...AND RESULTANT CAP...SUGGEST STRONG HEATING AND APPROACHING LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL BE NEEDED TO INITIATE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...LIKELY AFTER 20Z. SEVERE THREAT WILL BE INCREASINGLY CONDITIONAL SWD ALONG DRY LINE /ESPECIALLY ACROSS WRN TX/...THOUGH MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS SOMEWHAT CYCLONIC EVEN AS FAR SOUTH AS W-CENTRAL TX DURING THE EARLY EVENING. INITIATION MAY OCCUR A BIT EARLIER IN THE DAY ACROSS NERN WY/SERN MT WHERE COLD MID LEVEL AIR AND DEEP ASCENT WILL WEAKEN CAPPING. ACTIVITY WILL BECOME SEVERE QUICKLY AS WARM SECTOR BECOMES VERY UNSTABLE WITHIN AXIS OF UPPER 60F-LOWER 70F SURFACE DEW POINTS INTO WRN SD...AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS ENHANCED BY UPSLOPE COMPONENT WITHIN BOUNDARY LAYER. SUPERCELLS/SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY BECOME WIDESPREAD THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING UNDER STRONGLY DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW REGIME AHEAD OF APPROACHING SURFACE LOW/TROUGH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. VERY LARGE HAIL ALONG WITH TORNADOES CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH ADDITIONAL THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD STORMS EVOLVE INTO BOWING STRUCTURES INTO CENTRAL SD/NEB DURING THE EVENING. ELEVATED CLUSTERS OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO SPREAD ENEWD TOWARDS THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY LATE IN THE PERIOD. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA AHEAD OF EJECTING UPPER TROUGH MAY SUPPORT MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WITH THESE STORMS. ...NRN MS RIVER VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC... SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM THE CHESAPEAKE WNWWD INTO THE MID MO RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THOUGH RIDGING ALOFT WILL WEAKEN SHEAR...A VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS SHOULD SUPPORT WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF ERN IA INTO THE SRN MID ATLANTIC COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. SHEAR WILL BE A BIT STRONGER OVER THE DELMARVA...WITHIN 25 KT OF WLY MID LEVEL WINDS...THOUGH SEVERE THREAT STILL APPEARS TOO MARGINAL FOR INCLUSION OF A SLIGHT RISK ATTM. ..EVANS.. 06/09/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 9 17:37:50 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 09 Jun 2004 12:37:50 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200406091737.i59HbQ213533@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 091735 SWODY2 SPC AC 091734 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1234 PM CDT WED JUN 09 2004 VALID 101200Z - 111200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SW HLC 45 SE GLD 20 NE GLD 20 ESE AIA 20 ENE CDR 35 SW PHP 35 SW PIR 10 WNW 9V9 60 SSE 9V9 35 ENE BUB 40 S EAR 25 SE HLC 55 SW HLC. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SW CDS 25 E PVW 45 N AMA 30 WSW GLD 10 SE BFF 45 NE SHR 45 NW MLS OLF 25 WNW ISN MOT 35 SSE DVL 35 S FAR 50 WNW RWF 35 WSW SPW 15 WSW OMA 50 NE CSM 30 ESE CDS 50 SW CDS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSW MRF 30 SW INK 20 E CVS 45 N CAO 25 NNW LHX 30 SSW DEN 25 SSE ENV 30 SSW OWY 65 ESE BNO 55 NNW 4OM ...CONT... 25 WNW INL DLH 40 SE MTW 25 SSE DTW 20 NNW FKL 40 SSW ALB BOS ...CONT... 40 WSW HUM 40 SSW GWO 25 NE MEM 20 N POF 35 SSE TBN 30 NNE HRO 10 SSE FSM 35 NNE TYR 20 S PSX. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NEB...SD AND NW KS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS...CNTRL PLAINS AND SRN PLAINS... ...GREAT PLAINS STATES... A HIGH-AMPLITUDE UPPER-TROUGH...CURRENTLY OVER THE WRN US IS FORECAST TO EJECT NEWD INTO THE PLAINS THURSDAY. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER A LARGE WARM SECTOR...A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT SHOULD TAKE PLACE ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL AND NRN PLAINS. THE UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NEWD CROSSING THE ROCKIES TONIGHT. IN RESPONSE...THE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...HELPING TO TRANSPORT UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S F SFC DEWPOINTS NWWD INTO THE MODERATE RISK AREA BY MIDDAY ON THURSDAY. AN MCS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD IN THE VICINITY OF WRN NEB AND SW SD. THIS CONVECTION WILL LIKELY LIFT NWD DURING THE DAY ALLOWING FOR PARTIAL CLEARING IN NW KS AND SW NEB RESULTING IN STRONG SFC HEATING BY AFTERNOON. ETA FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS CNTRL NEB FOR 21Z THU SHOW MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000 TO 3000 J/KG WITH ABOUT 50 KT OF FLOW AT 500 MB. THIS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LONG-LIVED SUPERCELL STORMS WHICH SHOULD INITIATE IN THE HIGH PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND MOVE NEWD INTO THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY DURING THE EVENING HOURS. DUE TO THE STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WHICH IS FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION THU EVENING...SEVERE COVERAGE SHOULD BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD. THE ETA/ETAKF AND GFS GENERALLY AGREE...DEVELOPING A SFC LOW AND DRYLINE IN THE VICINITY OF NW KS WITH BACKED SFC FLOW ACROSS CNTRL NEB...ERN NEB AND SRN SD. THIS BACKED SFC FLOW COMBINED WITH A STRONG SLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL CREATE STRONG VEERING IN THE LOW-LEVELS WHICH WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES. IN ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW COOLING MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES FAVORABLE FOR VERY LARGE HAIL WITH ANY SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP. SCATTERED WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE LIKELY WITH SUPERCELL STORMS THAT TRACK NEWD ACROSS CNTRL NEB AND SRN SD. WIND DAMAGE AND LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH HIGHER-BASED STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN THE DRIER AIR ACROSS WCNTRL NEB...WRN SD AND WRN KS LATE IN THE DAY. AN MCS SHOULD ORGANIZE DURING THE EVENING AND MOVE NEWD AFFECTING IA AND MN OVERNIGHT. A SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN WITH THE SYSTEM CONSIDERING THE MODERATE INSTABILITY...STRONG SHEAR AND WIDESPREAD LARGE-SCALE ASCENT THAT IS FORECAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. ...WEST TX... A DRYLINE SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS WEST TEXAS THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO A WELL-ORGANIZED SYSTEM LIFTING NEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS. SFC DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S F EAST OF THE DRYLINE AND THIS WILL RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY MAINLY ACROSS THE ERN TX PANHANDLE AND LOW-ROLLING PLAINS. MOST OF THE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE EJECTING SYSTEM SHOULD BE NORTH OF THE REGION. AS A RESULT...THE CAPPING INVERSION WILL LIKELY BE STRONG AND INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE STRONG ALONG THE DRYLINE AND ISOLATED STORMS SHOULD INITIATE BY EARLY EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE STRONGEST MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS WEST TX WILL EXIST ACROSS THE OK AND TX PANHANDLES. THIS WOULD FAVOR A BIT MORE SEVERE WEATHER COVERAGE THAN AREAS FARTHER SOUTH. LARGE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY WITH ANY SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP CONSIDERING FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW 850 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES OF 7.5 TO 8.0 C/KM. ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL MAY OCCUR ESPECIALLY IF THE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ENDS UP BEING STRONGER THAN FORECAST. ...MID-ATLANTIC STATES... A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BE ORIENTED WEST TO EAST ACROSS SRN OH...WV INTO MD ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS SFC TEMPS HEAT UP DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE ETA AND GFS AGREE...DEVELOPING MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS VA AND MD WHICH WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THIS AREA SHOW ABOUT 20 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR...SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE MULTICELL STORMS. THE UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR WIND DAMAGE AS THE PRIMARY THREAT. THE STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND MOVE SEWD DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY DIMINISH QUICKLY IN THE EVENING HOURS AS STABILIZATION OCCURS ACROSS THE REGION. ..BROYLES.. 06/09/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 10 07:50:42 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 10 Jun 2004 02:50:42 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200406100750.i5A7oZ206631@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 100748 SWODY2 SPC AC 100747 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0247 AM CDT THU JUN 10 2004 VALID 111200Z - 121200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE RRT 25 WSW IWD 30 NNW MKE 30 SE RFD 25 ENE P35 25 SSE OMA 20 E ATY 80 NW MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE P07 35 NNW CNK 50 NNE BUB 35 NE PHP 35 ESE REJ 45 SSE SHR 35 SW PUC 50 ENE ELY 40 NNE BOI 45 NW 63S ...CONT... 100 ENE CMX 50 NNW TVC 10 NNW FNT 25 SE FKL 20 E SBY. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE MID MO/NRN MS RIVER VALLEYS... ...SYNOPSIS... HIGH AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO FOCUS INTENSE CONVECTION DURING THE DAY 1 PERIOD...WILL CONTINUE LIFTING NEWD WITH SEVERAL LOBES OF ENERGY EJECTING ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE NRN PLAINS FRIDAY. MAIN UPPER LOW WILL LIFT NWD AND BECOME NEAR VERTICALLY STACKED AS SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS INTO SERN SASK. ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH/DRY LINE WILL MOVE NNEWD ACROSS ND AND EWD INTO S-CENTRAL MN/WRN IA DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH SRN END STALLING SWWD FROM IA INTO WRN OK/CENTRAL TX. IN ADDITION...E-W ORIENTED SURFACE FRONT WILL SETTLE SWD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC...THOUGH WILL LIFT NWD AS A WARM FRONT INTO THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY AND THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE AFTERNOON. ...NRN PLAINS INTO THE NRN MS\MID MO RIVER VALLEYS... MCS...POSSIBLY MARGINALLY SEVERE...WILL SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THIS REGION FRIDAY MORNING. EFFECTS OF THIS ACTIVITY INCREASE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING DEGREE OF SEVERE THREAT IN ITS WAKE FRIDAY. HOWEVER...A VERY MOIST AND POTENTIALLY EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS MAY DEVELOP WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR EAST OF THE DRY LINE AND SOUTH OF WARM FRONT FROM THE MID MO RIVER VALLEY INTO SRN MN BY MID AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...REGION WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR LARGE SCALE ASCENT AS HEIGHTS FALL ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING TROUGH. GIVEN 40-50 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR...AND ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR NEAR SURFACE WAVES/BOUNDARIES...SEVERE THREAT COULD BE ENHANCED FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS AIR MASS DESTABILIZES IN WAKE OF EARLIER STORMS...PRIMARILY FROM SERN ND/SWRN MN INTO IA/WRN WI. STORMS WILL INITIALLY BE SUPERCELLULAR...WITH EVENTUAL EVOLUTION INTO ONE OR MORE SEVERE MCSS SPREADING ACROSS THE MS RIVER VALLEY AFTER DARK. WILL KEEP PROBABILITIES BELOW MODERATE RISK THRESHOLDS ATTM DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING STORMS EARLY IN THE DAY. FARTHER NORTHWEST ALONG SURFACE TROUGH...AIR MASS WILL BE LESS UNSTABLE THOUGH SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE IN PLACE FOR A FEW TORNADOES ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL. ...MID MO RIVER VALLEY SWWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS... LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL BE ABSENT OVER THIS REGION...THOUGH STRONG HEATING WITHIN A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL SUPPORT STRONG INSTABILITY BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. HEATING AND CONVERGENCE MAY WEAKEN CAP AND SUPPORT ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE DAY...AS REGION REMAINS WITHIN 35-45 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THREAT ACROSS THIS REGION IS MORE CONDITIONAL AND WORTHY OF ONLY LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES ATTM. ...SRN GREAT LAKES INTO CHESAPEAKE REGION... THIS AREA WILL REMAIN WITHIN NWLY MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW PARALLELING SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE SRN GREAT LAKES INTO ERN VA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...STORMS WHICH CAN SUSTAIN THEMSELVES OR DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON MAY BE FED BY MODERATE INSTABILITY JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF THE SURFACE FRONT. ATTM... MODEL FORECASTS DO NOT PRODUCE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT. BUT LARGE SCALE PATTERN THIS TIME OF YEAR REMAINS FAVORABLE...AND WILL INCLUDE LOW PROBABILITIES ALONG THE FRONT AS FRONT WILL LIKELY REMAIN CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. ..EVANS.. 06/10/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 10 17:18:16 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 10 Jun 2004 12:18:16 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200406101717.i5AHHr222883@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 101715 SWODY2 SPC AC 101714 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1214 PM CDT THU JUN 10 2004 VALID 111200Z - 121200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM INL 35 W IWD 20 WSW OSH 20 ENE RFD 30 NNE PIA 15 SE BRL 30 NE P35 40 E OMA 15 E FSD 10 NW ABR 60 NNW ISN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE P07 15 NNE CDS 30 ENE RSL 45 WNW OLU 25 SSE PIR 35 ESE REJ 40 W GCC 25 N PUC 25 E U24 35 SSW DPG BOI 40 NNE 4OM ...CONT... 55 NNE CMX 50 NNW TVC 25 NNW MTC 25 WNW AOO 20 E SBY. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND NRN PLAINS... ...UPPER MS VALLEY/NRN PLAINS... A HIGH-AMPLITUDE UPPER-TROUGH WILL DAMPEN AND PROGRESS NEWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A BROAD SWATH OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHICH WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. A LARGE MCS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...NORTH OF A SFC LOW ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NWD INTO SRN MN EXTENDING SEWD INTO NRN IL BY AFTERNOON. A MOIST AXIS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT NEWD WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S F REACHING AS FAR NORTH AS SRN MN. AS THE MCS MOVES EWD DURING THE DAY...A DRYSLOT SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM WILL SHIFT NEWD INTO IA AND SRN MN ALLOWING FOR STRONG SFC HEATING WITH MLCAPE VALUES LIKELY REACHING 3000 TO 4000 J/KG. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS UPPER MS VALLEY...SHOW 30 TO 40 KT OF FLOW AT 500 MB. THIS COUPLED WITH STRONGLY BACKED SFC WINDS JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE WARM FRONT WILL CREATE 40 TO 50 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR FAVORING SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. THE STRONGLY VEERED LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILES WILL FAVOR TORNADOES ESPECIALLY WITH SUPERCELLS IN THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY THAT CROSS THE WARM FRONT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. SUPERCELLS WILL ALSO HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL ESPECIALLY ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE WARM FRONT AND IN THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY ACROSS NRN IA AND SERN MN. OTHERWISE...WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MOST COVERAGE LIKELY ACROSS SRN MN AND IA WHERE LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST TO EXCEED 8.0 C/KM. FARTHER NW ACROSS NRN MN...NE SD AND ND...AN MCS ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY. THIS SHOULD IMPEDE SFC HEATING SOME BUT MINIMAL WARMING WILL STILL YIELD ABOUT 1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE BY LATE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPS WITH -16 TO -18C AT 500 MB. THIS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS. IF MORE INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP THAN IS FORECAST...THE LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILES WOULD FAVOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT. ...CNTRL PLAINS... SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY IN THE LOWER 70S F ACROSS NRN OK AND ERN KS. THIS MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE FRIDAY AND THIS COUPLED WITH STRONG SFC HEATING WILL YIELD MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000 TO 3000 J/KG. A COLD FRONT AND DRYLINE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EWD ACROSS OK AND KS DURING THE DAY. ALTHOUGH LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL BE WEAK...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LOADED GUN CHARACTERISTICS SUGGESTING STRONG UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LIKELY ONCE THE CAP WEAKENS. HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE ABOUT 25 TO 30 KT WHICH SHOULD FAVOR MULTICELL DEVELOPMENT. ALTHOUGH MID-LEVELS SHOULD BE FAIRLY WARM...STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY RESULT IN A MARGINAL HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE THREAT DURING A NARROW WINDOW JUST AFTER PEAK HEATING. ...UPPER OH VALLEY... A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT SHOULD BE LOCATED ACROSS IND AND OH FRIDAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS TEMPS WARM DURING THE DAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MODERATE INSTABILITY AND ABOUT 30 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS. UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES AND MOIST LOW-LEVELS WOULD FAVOR WET DOWNBURSTS WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS. THE MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY AS STABILIZATION OCCURS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE EARLY EVENING. ..BROYLES.. 06/10/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 11 17:29:08 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 11 Jun 2004 12:29:08 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200406111728.i5BHSj219300@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 111727 SWODY2 SPC AC 111725 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1225 PM CDT FRI JUN 11 2004 VALID 121200Z - 131200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNE MKO 40 E SPS SJT BGS CDS 45 NE DDC EAR YKN RWF MSP AUW MTW 45 SSE CGX 20 N SLO 10 NE UNO 35 NNE MKO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ERI LBE LYH 35 SE EWN ...CONT... PFN 20 S AUO HSV 35 SW JBR 30 SE PGO 35 SSE DAL 10 NW LRD ...CONT... 70 S MRF 30 NE INK 15 E AMA 25 WSW LBL LAA ALS CEZ U17 U24 RIW 20 NNW 81V 45 NE 4BQ 65 W MLS BZN MSO 3TH 75 ENE 63S. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... PATTERN ACROSS THE CONTIGUOUS U.S. WILL BE DOMINATED BY A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE NERN GULF OF MEXICO NWD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. AS A RESULT...COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST DURING DAY 1 WILL BECOME QUASISTATIONARY EXTENDING FROM WRN MN AND WRN IA SWWD INTO NERN NM BY THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. ALSO...A WARM FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM NERN MN SEWD THROUGH NWRN OH INTO NERN NC. THE ETA...GFS AND MM5 MODELS INDICATE SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SRN BRANCH OF THE WRN U.S. TROUGH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND LOWER MO VALLEY REGION DURING THE PERIOD. ALL THREE MODELS ZERO IN ON A VORTICITY MAX THAT WILL ENHANCE STRONG CONVECTION OVER ERN NE/NERN KS AND NWRN MO LATER IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH MAY INDICATE STRONG MCS/MCC ACROSS THIS REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. ...CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY... MODELS ALL INDICATE A SURFACE LOW THAT WILL DEVELOP OVER SWRN/CENTRAL KS BY THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. THIS IS EXPECTED TO ENHANCE LOW LEVEL JET TO 40-50 KT ACROSS OK INTO NERN KS. THIS IS ALSO EXPECTED TO ENHANCE LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION. MID LEVEL FLOW IN THE SRN BRANCH IS FORECAST TO BE WLY/SWLY 50-55 KT WITH UPPER LEVEL JET NEAR 60 KT. BOTH THE ETA AND GFS LOOK TO BE HANDLING FINER FEATURES OF THIS EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WITH INDICATIONS OF CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK...BUT FEEL THAT KINEMATIC PROFILES SUGGESTS STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS OVER PARTS OF ERN NE AND ERN KS INTO WRN MO DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. MODELS ALSO SHOW VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S W OF SURFACE DRYLINE THAT WILL EXTEND FROM CENTRAL KS SWWD THROUGH NWRN OK INTO EXTREME W CENTRAL TX. DAYTIME HEATING IS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO FORECAST CAPE BETWEEN 3000 AND 5000 J/KG OVER ERN KS. THIS COMBINED WITH DEEP LAYER OF 40-45 KT OVER NERN KS ALSO SHOWS THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL INITIALLY WITH THIS ACTIVITY. THUS...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED NEAR THE SURFACE LOW OVER KS BY LATE AFTERNOON AS CAP WEAKENS ALLOWING FOR STRONG/RAPID DEVELOPMENT OVER NERN KS AND SERN NEB SWD ALONG THE DRYLINE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL THEN CLUSTER FORMING INTO AN MCS/MCC OVER NWRN INTO CENTRAL MO OVERNIGHT WITH MAIN THREATS BEING DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL. ...SRN NC INTO SC AND SERN GA... COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE SWD DURING THE PERIOD ALONG THE SRN HALF OF THE ATLANTIC COAST. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHERE AIR MASS WILL BE POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE WITH CAPE TO 2500 J/KG. MID LEVEL JET ENTRANCE REGION OF 30-40 KT WILL EXTEND SEWD ACROSS VA/NC EARLY IN THE DAY. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS LATE SATURDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. ..MCCARTHY.. 06/11/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 12 17:01:50 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 12 Jun 2004 12:01:50 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200406121701.i5CH1S212239@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 121659 SWODY2 SPC AC 121657 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1157 AM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004 VALID 131200Z - 141200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N ALN 50 SSE SZL 30 S CNU ICT HUT 30 ESE LNK 30 N ALO 20 NE LNR 35 NNE MMO 15 ENE BMI 25 N ALN. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ERI LBE CRW LEX SGF OKC CSM GAG RSL HSI FSD EAU MQT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 S MRF 10 WSW MAF 20 SE GCK BBW 9V9 MBG 65 NNW REJ 40 WNW 4BQ CPR LAR 35 W FCL 30 NNW EGE 45 ENE VEL 20 NW BPI 15 W IDA 80 NNE BOI 10 S ALW 45 NW 63S ...CONT... 20 WNW MFE 25 ENE NIR 45 ESE LFK 25 ESE MLU 40 E PBF 40 N LIT 20 N PGO 25 NE DAL 15 WNW LRD ...CONT... 25 WNW ROC PSB 10 E SHD 45 E RWI 40 ESE EWN. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACRS ERN KS...SERN NE...SRN AND ERN IA...NRN MO AND W CENTRAL/NWRN IL.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.... ...SYNOPSIS... MAIN BAND OF THE WESTERLIES WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NWRN AND N CENTRAL PARTS OF THE U.S. INTO THE DAY 2 PERIOD. SEEMS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL TRANSITION A BIT AS MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES FROM LATE DAY 1 THROUGH DAY 2 AS RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE SWRN U.S. AND REMAINS IN PLACE E OF THE FL PENINSULA. MODELS THEN DEVELOP A WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SERN TX/WRN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE LATTER HALF OF DAY TWO. SEEMS THE MODELS HAVE AN INTERESTING TIME DEPICTING THE MAIN SURFACE FEATURES WITH THIS TRANSITION. FIRST MAIN COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND NRN AREAS OF THE MID MS VALLEY BETWEEN 13/18Z AND 14/06Z AS THE NLY BRANCH OF THE WESTERLIES INCREASES AS STRONG 100-110 KT UPPER JET EXTENDS ACROSS THE NWRN U.S. INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. BOTH MODELS ARE ALSO VERY SIMILAR IN HANDLING THERMODYNAMIC ASPECTS ACROSS THE MDT RISK AREA ...ALTHOUGH GFS STILL LOOKS TO HAVE SOME PROBLEMS WITH CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. ...LOWER MO AND MID MS VALLEY REGIONS... BOTH THE ETA AND GFS INDICATE A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN PLACE FROM CENTRAL/ERN KS INTO NRN MO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE EAST OF SURFACE DRYLINE/TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO BE FROM NERN NE SWD/SWWD THROUGH S CENTRAL KS INTO W CENTRAL TX. THIS AREA WILL ALSO BE S OF A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE FROM NERN WI SWWD INTO NERN NE. ETA MODEL INDICATES THAT CAPE WILL BE NEAR/AROUND 4000 J/KG OVER NERN KS/NWRN MO /LIFTED INDICES AROUND -12/ WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOW 70S. QUESTION REMAINS WHERE AND IF THERE WILL BE ANY CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER AREA FROM DAY 1 CONVECTION. ETA MODEL WEAKENS LOW LEVEL FLOW TO AROUND 30 KT AHEAD OF MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT LIFTS ENEWD FROM THE ERN PARTS OF THE NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/SERN ONTARIO. FAVORABLE ENTRANCE REGION OF MODEST MID/UPPER LEVEL JETS OF 40-50 KT AND 70-80 KT RESPECTIVELY...WILL EXTEND FROM NE/IA INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THUS...COMBINATION OF STRONG INSTABILITY GRADIENT COUPLED WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40-50 KT WILL BE OVER NRN MO/SRN IA INTO W CENTRAL IL FOR BEST TORNADO THREAT LATE SUNDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. GREATEST SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE LARGE HAIL WITH SUCH HIGH INSTABILITY ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG GUSTY WINDS. ...GREAT LAKES REGION... COLD FRONT ADVANCING EWD ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW WILL EXTEND FROM NERN WI INTO CENTRAL IA AND NERN KS BY 14/00Z...THEN FROM E CENTRAL LOWER MI INTO CENTRAL KS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS FORECAST LATE SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY AS THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND MID MS VALLEY REGION. THUS...LOOKS LIKE MODE WILL CHANGES AS THE GREATEST THREAT BECOMES DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. ..MCCARTHY.. 06/12/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 13 07:47:53 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 13 Jun 2004 02:47:53 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200406130747.i5D7lY214567@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 130745 SWODY2 SPC AC 130744 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0244 AM CDT SUN JUN 13 2004 VALID 141200Z - 151200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE SBY 10 W RIC 15 ESE 5I3 10 WSW LEX 15 ESE STL 20 SSW OJC 20 WNW SLN 15 N LBF 15 NW ANW 40 SSW MHE 35 W ALO 35 WNW RFD 20 S GRR 20 NE MTC ...CONT... 25 WNW EFK 10 ESE JFK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW LRD 25 WNW TXK 20 NW PGO 50 E OKC 25 NE SPS 35 SSW SJT 35 ESE FST 35 NNE FST 30 SE LBB 45 NNW CDS DDC 40 NW GCK 50 NNW CAO 40 NNE SAF 15 E FMN 10 NNE U17 45 SSW BIH 55 NE MER 35 SE TVL 35 ENE EVW 45 SSW REJ 55 SW MBG 60 SSW JMS 50 NE BIS 35 NNE HVR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE ORF 15 E RWI 20 S FAY 30 SW CRE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS EWD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC/WRN NEW ENGLAND... ...SYNOPSIS... A BROAD BELT OF MODERATE ZONAL FLOW WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE NRN 1/3RD OF THE NATION THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALONG THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THIS STRONGER FLOW...A NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NEB EWD INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE GREATEST SEVERE THREAT WILL BE SOMEWHAT MODULATED BY DAY ONE ACTIVITY...BUT CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID MO RIVER VALLEY/CENTRAL PLAINS WHERE HIGH TO EXTREME INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH MODEST FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SVR WEATHER. ADDITIONAL TO THE THREAT OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE COUNTRY...THERE WILL BE THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WITH A TROPICAL SYSTEM AS IT MOVES INLAND INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY EARLY IN THE PERIOD. ...MID MO VALLEY EWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY... HIGH TO EXTREME INSTABILITY AXIS FUELED BY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND AMPLE MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S WILL EXIST ALONG AND SOUTH OF A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM SERN NEB/NERN KS INTO SRN IA/FAR NRN MO. RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF STRONG UPPER JET MAX OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND FOCUSED CONVERGENCE AT THE LOW LEVELS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE SUFFICIENT FORCING MECHANISMS FOR RAPID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE AN AXIS OF MLCAPES FROM 4500-6000 J/KG FROM FAR NCENTRAL KS/SCENTRAL NEB EWD INTO FAR NRN MO/SRN IA ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT. DEGREE OF HOW WIDESPREAD AND SEVERE THIS CONVECTION WILL BE WILL BE SOMEWHAT DEPENDENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF DAY ONE ACTIVITY IN THIS SAME AREA. AT THE PRESENT...CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED TO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE AT LEAST SIGNIFICANT HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. LOW LEVEL SHEAR ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AND EARLY IN THE CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR TORNADOES AS WELL. CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED TO EVOLVE INTO A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NRN MO/SRN IA INTO FAR WRN IL OVERNIGHT AS SWLY LOW-MID LEVEL JET AIDS IN IT/S EWD MOVEMENT ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. DEPENDING ON THE OUTCOME OF DAY ONE CONVECTION...THIS AREA MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED IN LATER OUTLOOKS. ...OHIO VALLEY/SRN GREAT LAKES EWD INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND/MID ATLANTIC... SEVERAL CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS FROM DAY ONE ACTIVITY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES ARE EXPECTED TO MIGRATE EWD INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID ATLANTIC BY THE AFTERNOON. HEATING /DESTABILIZATION ALONG WITH A PLUME OF STEEP LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF THESE REMNANT CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS WILL AID IN THE LIKELIHOOD OF AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH...A BROAD BELT OF 30 TO 40 KTS AT MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BE OVER THE AREA AND ALONG WITH THE MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO THE LIKELIHOOD OF SEVERE WINDS/HAIL. FARTHER WEST...ADDITIONAL REDEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE BY AFTERNOON OVER SERN LOWER MI SWWD INTO NRN IND/IL AHEAD OF STATIONARY FRONT AND AHEAD OF STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH. INSTABILITY IN THIS AREA MAY BE SLOWER TO DEVELOP...DUE TO EARLIER CONVECTION AND POTENTIAL FROM CIRRUS CLOUD COVER CANOPY FROM CENTRAL PLAINS CONVECTION. ADDITIONALLY CONVERGENCE WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK IN THE AREA. HOWEVER...IF CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP THEN STRENGTH OF WIND FIELDS AND AT LEAST MODERATE INSTABILITY WOULD FAVOR THE EVOLUTION OF AN ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE CLUSTER. ...NRN NEB/FAR SRN SD... INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET AND STRONG CONVERGENCE IN THE 900-800 MB LAYER SHOULD AID IN ELEVATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NORTH OF STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL NEB DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND CLOUD BEARING SHEAR FROM 30-40 KTS SHOULD AID IN THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE HAIL AS THE PRIMARY THREAT. ...WI/NRN LOWER MI... SECONDARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SWD THROUGH NRN WI/NRN LOWER MID THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AIRMASS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS UNSTABLE AS LOCATIONS FURTHER SOUTH...AND DEGREE OF HEATING FROM UNCERTAINTY IN CLOUD COVER MAY LIMIT MUCAPES TO LESS THAN 1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...IF LATER FORECASTS INDICATE BETTER HEATING/DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL...THEN STRONG WIND FIELDS WOULD FAVOR ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL. ...LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY... LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES/SHEAR WILL INCREASE IN ASSOCIATION WITH APPROACHING TROPICAL DISTURBANCE AS IT MOVES NWD OUT OF THE NRN GULF INTO THE AREA DURING THE PERIOD. 15 KTS OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND MOIST LOW LEVELS/LOW LCL HEIGHTS WILL FAVOR THE THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES. GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BOTH GFS/ETA ON THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS FURTHER ADDS CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST. MARGINAL NATURE OF THE WIND FIELDS WILL KEEP FORECAST TO LESS THAN CATEGORICAL SEVERE FOR NOW. ..CROSBIE/HART.. 06/13/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 13 17:26:20 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 13 Jun 2004 12:26:20 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200406131725.i5DHPx225072@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 131723 SWODY2 SPC AC 131722 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1222 PM CDT SUN JUN 13 2004 VALID 141200Z - 151200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW EFK 10 ESE JFK ...CONT... 25 ESE SBY RIC 35 NE BWG 20 NW CGI 15 E LBL 10 ENE PUB DEN 55 W BFF 35 WNW CDR 40 NE VTN 55 NW LWD 35 NW BRL 35 N APN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SW P07 45 WSW CVS 40 NNE SAF 45 WSW 4HV 10 NNW BIH 25 ENE TVL 25 SSW BAM 40 NW EVW 60 SSW JMS 50 NE BIS 35 NNE HVR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE DHT 30 NNW PVW 45 E BGS 10 SE BWD 45 NNW HOT 25 WSW HRO 30 NE DHT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL U.S. TO THE MID ATLANTIC/GREAT LAKES... ...SYNOPSIS... A LARGE AREA ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES/APPALACHIANS/MID ATLANTIC WILL LIKELY SEE AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY. FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH...ASSOCIATED WITH VORT MAX NOW BECOMING BETTER DEFINED OVER MT...WILL PROGRESS EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL AID IN MOVING SURFACE COLD FRONT ESEWD INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES/MID MS RIVER VALLEY DURING THE DAY...WITH TRAILING PORTION BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY IN A E-W ORIENTATION ACROSS CENTRAL MO/KS INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT... AIR MASS WILL BECOME VERY UNSTABLE...THOUGH WARM SECTOR WILL BE CLUTTERED WITH NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES/SFC TROUGHS FROM EARLIER SYSTEMS. ...GREAT LAKES/MID MS RIVER VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS... THIS AREA WILL BECOME INFLUENCED BY PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH THE DAY...INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR. REGION WILL REMAIN ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF MODERATE WLY FLOW ALOFT WITH 50+ KT H5 WINDS OVERSPREADING THE COLD FRONT FROM LOWER MI/WRN NY INTO CENTRAL IL/NRN IND. THOUGH PRIMARY FOCUS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAY AWAIT APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATER IN THE DAY... MOST LIKELY INCREASE IN SEVERE THREAT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE NUMEROUS SURFACE BOUNDARIES LEFT ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. MLCAPES ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED 2000 J/KG OVER THE OH RIVER VALLEY...WITH LESSER CAPE INTO THE GREAT LAKES...BY THE MID AFTERNOON WHEN CAPPING WILL BECOME NEGLIGIBLE. GIVEN DEGREE OF SHEAR...THIS WILL ENHANCE THE ORGANIZATION/SEVERE THREAT WITH INCREASING CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION. DAMAGING WINDS WILL LIKELY BE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT AS STORMS SPREAD EWD THROUGH THE EVENING...THOUGH SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND DEGREE OF INSTABILITY SUGGEST ISOLATED TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED. ...ERN GREAT LAKES/NY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC... WITH MODEST WLY FLOW ALOFT OVERSPREADING THIS REGION...AND EXPECTED DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY...APPEARS THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. PRIMARY FOCUSING MECHANISMS REMAIN HARD TO IDENTIFY THIS FAR IN ADVANCE...HOWEVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND REMNANT SURFACE FRONT ALONG NERN PERIPHERY OF RETURNING GULF MOISTURE BOTH MAY INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS BY THE MID AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL SPREAD EWD AS CLUSTERS/LINES WITH PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS INTO THE MID EVENING. ...CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OF CO/SERN WY/WRN NEB... ETA AND GFS BOTH DEEPEN A SURFACE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS DURING LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD...WITH CONVERGENCE BECOMING BETTER FOCUSED ALONG SWD MOVING COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO STALL INTO KS/MO LATE IN THE DAY. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL BE CONFINED ALONG AND SOUTH OF E-W SURFACE FRONT FROM CENTRAL MO INTO KS...WHERE DEW POINTS WILL EXCEED 70F. IN ADDITION...SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE 50S WILL LIKELY ADVECT WWD INTO NERN CO/SERN WY/NEB PANHANDLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS PRESSURES FALL OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND SURFACE WINDS BECOME MORE ESELY. SHEAR WILL NOT BE OVERLY STRONG OVER THIS REGION...THOUGH DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND ENHANCEMENT DUE TO UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE HIGH PLAINS SUGGEST A FEW SUPERCELLS AS STORMS DEVELOP OFF HIGHER TERRAIN AND FARTHER EAST ALONG THE COLD FRONT LATE IN THE DAY. ACTIVITY MAY BECOME MORE MULTICELLULAR/LINEAR INTO KS/MO...WITH INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. STORMS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO SPREAD TOO FAR EWD...THOUGH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR ALONG NOSE OF STRONG LLJ AFTER DARK INTO NEB. THESE STORMS WILL POSE OF A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL DUE TO STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY. ...LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY AND SRN TX... WEAK SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL-LIKE SYSTEM SPREADING NWD OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL DEVELOP NWD ALONG THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY MONDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE ESELY LOW LEVEL WINDS WHICH...GIVEN EXPECTED LOW LCLS IN RICH TROPICAL MOISTURE...SUGGEST AREA WARRANTS AT LEAST LOW PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF BRIEF TORNADOES. WILL OPT TO NOT INCLUDE A SLGT RISK ATTM DUE TO AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THIS SYSTEM. LOW PROBABILITIES ALSO INCLUDED INTO PORTIONS OF ERN/SRN TX ALONG BACK EDGE OF TROPICAL SYSTEM. ETA DEVELOPS 30 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND WIDESPREAD CONVECTION DURING LATTER HALF OF PERIOD...UNDER 35 KT NLY MID LEVEL JET. ..EVANS.. 06/13/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 14 07:22:41 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 14 Jun 2004 02:22:41 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200406140722.i5E7MS223425@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 140720 SWODY2 SPC AC 140718 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0218 AM CDT MON JUN 14 2004 VALID 151200Z - 161200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM GRB MKE 10 W UIN OJC 15 E LBL 15 WNW EHA PUB 10 SSW DEN 10 NNE SNY ANW HON AXN DLH RHI GRB. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E WAL 10 W CHO 30 NE EKN PIT 20 ENE ERI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NW LRD 45 WNW AUS ADM OKC GAG DHT SAF GCN LAS 10 SSE NID 10 ESE MER RBL WMC ENV VEL LAR CDR ABR FAR TVF P24 GGW 50 ENE HVR. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ACROSS NEW ENGLAND... BAND OF MODERATELY STRONG WESTERLY MID LEVEL WINDS WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES ON TUESDAY...WITH A COUPLE OF STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN FLOW. THESE TWO SYSTEMS ARE FORECAST TO POSE A RISK OF ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ON DAY2. ...NEW ENGLAND AND MID ATLANTIC REGION... ETA/GFS SOLUTIONS GENERALLY AGREE ON MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER MN/WI INTO NY/PA BY TUESDAY MORNING. SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL ALLOW AIRMASS TO DESTABILIZE OVER NEW ENGLAND...WITH WIDESPREAD DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND POCKETS OF STRONG DAYTIME HEATING. AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG ARE EXPECTED. CLUSTER OF STORMS MAY BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD OVER NY/PA...AND MAY RE-INTENSIFY DURING THE DAY ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. OTHER MORE ISOLATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER NY/PA AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON... SPREADING EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND AS WELL. ORGANIZED MULTICELL OR ISOLATED SUPERCELL STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS. HOWEVER...ETAKF SOLUTION SUGGESTS CONSIDERABLY STRONGER LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY...ALSO SUGGESTING A POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED TORNADOES. ...CENTRAL PLAINS INTO UPPER MS VALLEY... UPPER SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS FORECAST TO OCCUR ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY...WITH SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS MAINTAINING A VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS. FULL SUNSHINE AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN MLCAPE VALUES OVER 3000 J/KG ACROSS PARTS OF KS/NEB/IA. NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON...WEAKENING CAP AND RESULTING IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ACTIVITY MAY ORGANIZE INTO AN MCS DURING THE EVENING AND SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN MN/IA/WI/NRN IL/NRN MO WITH A CONTINUED THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SOUTHWARD ALONG SURFACE DRYLINE OVER WESTERN KS...AND IN UPSLOPE REGION OF EASTERN CO. WESTERLY MID LEVEL WINDS WILL BE WEAKER IN THESE REGIONS. HOWEVER...SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN FOR ORGANIZED STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. ..HART.. 06/14/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 14 18:52:46 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 14 Jun 2004 13:52:46 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200406141852.i5EIqX209640@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 141734 SWODY2 SPC AC 141733 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1233 PM CDT MON JUN 14 2004 VALID 151200Z - 161200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SW OTM 30 NNW CNK 35 ESE MCK 30 NW BBW 25 NE YKN 30 ESE FRM 20 N ALO 20 S CID 35 SW OTM. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E SBY 40 SSW MRB 10 S ZZV 15 SSE CLE 20 ESE ELM 35 S RUT 20 NNE HUL. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 ESE ANJ 50 SW HTL 15 ENE CGX 10 N UIN 10 N MKC 45 SE DDC 20 WNW LBL LHX 30 E DEN 15 NNW SNY ANW 10 SSE ATY 50 ESE FAR 20 ENE RRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NW LRD 45 WNW AUS 25 N MKO 40 WNW TBN 10 SE SZL 55 W GAG SAF GCN LAS 10 SSE NID 10 ESE MER RBL WMC ENV VEL LAR CDR ABR 40 WSW FAR 25 SW DVL 35 WSW GDV 15 W GTF 55 NNW FCA ...CONT... 80 NE APN 15 N AZO 40 NE FWA 30 NW YNG 15 NE UCA 20 NE MSS. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CENTRAL NEB INTO CENTRAL IA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC/UPPER OH RIVER VALLEY AND NEW ENGLAND... ...CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID/LOWER MO AND NRN MS RIVER VALLEY... WRN END OF SURFACE FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING ENE-WSW ACROSS NRN IL/NRN MO/NRN KS WILL LIFT NWD AS A WARM FRONT DURING THE DAY AND WILL LIKELY DELINEATE NRN EDGE OF AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. IN ADDITION...A SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG NRN STREAM TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD TOWARDS THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY AND SWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD. MCS IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING...OR DEVELOP...OVER ERN SD DURING THE MORNING ALONG NOSE OF SLY LLJ AND WITHIN MARGINAL TO MODERATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY. ETA AND GFS ARE BOTH AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING INTENSE CONVECTION BY 18Z ALONG SWRN FLANK OF MCS AND NEAR APPROACHING COLD FRONT INTO NERN NEB/SERN SD. LEADING EDGE OF MCS MAY INTENSIFY AND TRACK ESEWD ALONG INSTABILITY GRADIENT/WARM FRONT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING AS COLD FRONT SHIFTS SEWD AND CAP ERODES. WITH INCREASING CONVERGENCE ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/SURFACE FRONT...INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP RAPIDLY DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON SSWWD INTO CENTRAL/ERN NEB. REGION WILL REMAIN WITHIN SRN PERIPHERY OF STRONGER BAND OF WLY FLOW ALOFT...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS YIELDING 40-50 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR OVER 2500-3500 J/KG MLCAPES FROM CENTRAL NEB INTO CENTRAL IA BY 21Z. THEREFORE...IN ADDITION TO POTENTIAL FOR ONE OR MORE BOW ECHO MCSS...ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES MAY ALSO DEVELOP. COMBINATION OF EXTREME INSTABILITY AND MODEST SHEAR AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM WARRANTS UPGRADE TO A MODERATE RISK FROM CENTRAL NEB INTO MUCH OF IA FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEVERE THREAT WILL BE MORE ISOLATED NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT/INSTABILITY GRADIENT...ALONG APPROACHING COLD FRONT INTO MN AND NRN WI. HOWEVER...STRONG SHEAR AND SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE 50S MAY SUFFICE FOR A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. FARTHER WEST/SOUTHWEST...SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE A BIT WEAKER. HOWEVER...MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY IS STILL LIKELY TO DEVELOP INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OF WRN NEB/ERN CO/WRN KS. SURFACE LOW/DRY LINE CONVERGENCE AND STRONG HEATING SHOULD OVERCOME CAPPING ACROSS THIS REGION AND SUPPORT ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE DAY. DEPENDING ON PRESENCE OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT...AS FORECAST BY THE MODELS...ACTIVITY MAY CONSOLIDATE INTO A MCS AND SHIFT ESEWD ACROSS WRN/CENTRAL KS THROUGH THE EVENING. ...NORTHEAST... APPEARS COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH NOW OVERSPREADING THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL SHIFT EWD ACROSS WRN NY/WRN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE MORNING. ETA AND GFS DISAGREE WITH EXTENT OF MORNING CONVECTION AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...AXIS OF MARGINAL TO MODERATE INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP IN WAKE OF MORNING STORMS AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT INTO THE ERN HALF OF NEW ENGLAND. GIVEN STRENGTH OF SHEAR...WILL MAINTAIN A CONDITIONAL SLIGHT RISK ACROSS MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY. ...MID ATLANTIC REGION INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY... BOUNDARY WILL SLOW AS IT BECOMES MORE E-W INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ACROSS SRN PA AND INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY DURING THE DAY. A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THIS PORTION OF THE FRONT. THOUGH SHEAR WILL BE WEAKER THAN FARTHER NE...DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELL LINES/CLUSTERS ACROSS THIS AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...MAINLY INTO THE APPALACHIANS EWD TOWARDS THE COAST. ..EVANS.. 06/14/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 15 07:04:58 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 15 Jun 2004 02:04:58 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200406150704.i5F74e216696@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 150702 SWODY2 SPC AC 150700 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0200 AM CDT TUE JUN 15 2004 VALID 161200Z - 171200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CLE FDY MMO IRK CNU 35 SE PNC CSM AMA RTN PUB 35 NW GLD OLU LSE 10 NE PLN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW SYR 30 S BGM 20 SW JFK ...CONT... 30 SSE VCT 25 WNW TYR 30 NE ADM 45 SSW LTS 45 NE CVS ABQ PRC LAS BIH 35 ENE SAC RNO ENV BPI RWL FCL AKO MHN YKN RST MQT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...UPPER MS VALLEY...AND GREAT LAKES REGION... MAIN BAND OF UPPER FLOW WILL ONCE AGAIN EXTEND ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES REGION ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER EAST TX BECOMES EMBEDDED IN WESTERLY FLOW AND IS EJECTED NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE OH VALLEY. RELATIVELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE MAINTAINED ALONG AN AXIS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO LOWER MI...WHERE STRONG DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OVER 2000 J/KG. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY ALONG SURFACE COLD FRONT FROM NORTHEAST KS INTO CENTRAL WI...SPREADING EASTWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL APPEAR POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. OTHER SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME OVER SOUTHEAST CO/NORTHEAST NM. THESE STORMS MAY PROPAGATE EASTWARD INTO A MUCH MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER TX/KS/OK DURING THE EVENING...WITH A SUSTAINED SEVERE THREAT. ...MID MS VALLEY INTO IND/OH... DEEP/MOIST SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE LOWER/MID MS AND TN VALLEYS WILL RESULT IN WEAK LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL-MODERATE INSTABILITY. BAND OF STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL LIKELY EXTEND FROM EASTERN AR/WESTERN TN INTO IND/OH ON DAY2. COMBINATION OF DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S AND POCKETS OF DAYTIME HEATING INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FOR DOWNBURST WINDS OR PERHAPS A TORNADO ALONG THIS AXIS. ..HART.. 06/15/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 15 17:16:22 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 15 Jun 2004 12:16:22 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200406151716.i5FHG6220099@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 151713 SWODY2 SPC AC 151711 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1211 PM CDT TUE JUN 15 2004 VALID 161200Z - 171200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW RFD IRK CNU 35 SE PNC CSM AMA RTN PUB 35 NW GLD 30 WNW SUX 30 WNW RST 25 SSW CWA 30 NE MSN 40 SW RFD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSE ALI 35 SE HDO 10 N SEP 50 SE SPS 25 WSW SPS 65 NE BGS 50 SW LBB 70 SSE LVS 25 S GNT 45 SE IGM 40 NNW DAG 45 N BFL 15 E MER 40 WSW TVL 35 NE RNO 45 WNW ENV 30 SSW BPI 35 WNW RWL FCL 30 WNW AKO 35 ESE SNY 15 SSW ANW 25 SW BKX 25 SSW STC 50 SE DLH 20 NE CMX ...CONT... 40 SW MSS 15 SW GFL 10 NNW JFK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NNW DVL 50 W P24 70 W MLS 10 E BZN 60 N 27U 20 S S06 75 ENE 63S. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO SWRN WI... ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO GREAT LAKES... DEEP LAYER FLOW ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE COUNTRY HAS GRADUALLY WEAKENED WITH THE STRONGEST CURRENT OF WLY FLOW ACROSS THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER. A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG SEWD ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON FORCING PRESSURES TO RISE ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES...DRIVING A COLD FRONT DEEP INTO THE TX PANHANDLE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS FRONTAL ZONE WILL LIKELY SERVE AS AN INITIATOR FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...BOTH LATE DAY1...AND AGAIN ON DAY2. LATE DAY1 ACTIVITY MAY EVOLVE INTO AN MCS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BEFORE PROPAGATING INTO THE MID MS VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS CLUSTER OF STORMS MAY REGENERATE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN NEB/IA. OTHERWISE...RELATIVELY WEAK LARGE SCALE FORCING AND MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL RESULT IN DIURNALLY MORE ACTIVE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME HAIL OR WIND...MAINLY ALONG THE SWD-MOVING FRONTAL ZONE. ...TN/OH VALLEYS... WRN GULF COAST UPPER LOW WILL SHEAR NEWD DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY. THIS FEATURE WILL AUGMENT THE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT ACROSS AN INCREASINGLY MOIST TROPICAL AIRMASS...CHARACTERIZED BY 70+ SFC DEW POINTS BUT MODEST INSTABILITY...SBCAPES ROUGHLY 1500J/KG. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR MAY AID THE PRODUCTION OF SMALL SCALE SUPERCELLS. IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES FOR HIGHER INSTABILITY ALONG A ZONE FROM WRN TN INTO OH THERE MAY BE A NEED TO UPGRADE THIS REGION TO A SLIGHT RISK FOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES. ..DARROW.. 06/15/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 16 07:43:23 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 16 Jun 2004 02:43:23 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200406160743.i5G7hJ200977@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 160741 SWODY2 SPC AC 160740 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0240 AM CDT WED JUN 16 2004 VALID 171200Z - 181200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E SBY CHO JKL MDH BLV PIA MKG 70 SE OSC ...CONT... ART RUT PSM. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CDS AMA RTN COS FCL CYS SNY 50 E GLD DDC END 40 SE OKC SPS CDS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM EFK 30 ENE PWM ...CONT... 40 WNW INL FAR 10 NE RAP CDR 25 SE MHN 20 SSE SUX MCW RHI 25 E MQT ...CONT... 15 ENE GPT JAN TXK SEP 35 NW DRT ...CONT... 60 SE ELP CNM CVS SAF GUP GCN TPH 50 SSW TVL RBL MHS 4LW PDT MSO GTF 75 NE BIL 65 NNW ISN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID MS VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...OH VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER TX/OK IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHWARD AND BECOME EMBEDDED IN STRONGER WESTERLIES ON THURSDAY. BAND OF STRONGER LOW/MID LEVEL WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND INTO NY/PA/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. WIDESPREAD MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS LIKELY TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS THIS REGION...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S AND MLCAPE VALUES OVER 2000 J/KG. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY OVER IND/OH/KY BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND SPREAD EASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN STRONGER CELLS. OTHER ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG THE SURFACE COLD FRONT FROM LOWER MI INTO IL. ...CENTRAL PLAINS... UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN AZ IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS EASTERN CO...WESTERN KS...AND THE TX/OK PANHANDLES. BACKED SURFACE WINDS NORTH OF SURFACE QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL TRANSPORT MOISTURE WESTWARD INTO EASTERN CO/NM...WHERE INITIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED. SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR WILL EXIST FOR THE THREAT OF SUPERCELLS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. STORMS WILL LIKELY SPREAD EASTWARD INTO PARTS OF WESTERN KS/OK DURING THE EVENING. OTHER ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE DOWN THE DRYLINE IN WEST TX ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER...WILL ONLY OUTLOOK LOW PROBABILITIES IN THIS AREA DUE TO WEAKER MID LEVEL WINDS AND MINIMAL UPPER FORCING. ..HART.. 06/16/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 16 17:35:13 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 16 Jun 2004 12:35:13 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200406161734.i5GHYx226997@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 161732 SWODY2 SPC AC 161731 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1231 PM CDT WED JUN 16 2004 VALID 171200Z - 181200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E SBY CHO CRW HTS LEX BWG CKV PAH MDH SLO CMI BEH LAN 50 NE MTC ...CONT... ART RUT 20 SSW BOS 30 E BID. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM RTN TAD PUB COS DEN FCL CYS 40 NNE CYS BFF 50 ENE SNY CNK 35 ESE SLN ICT 30 NW END SPS CDS RTN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 E PSX CLL GGG TXK PGO DUA ABI BGS 90 SSE MRF ...CONT... 85 SSW GDP CNM 60 WSW CVS LVS DRO CEZ PGA 45 SSW SGU TPH TVL RBL MHS LMT PDT LWS MSO 35 NNW HLN 3HT 60 ENE BIL MLS GDV 70 NNE ISN ...CONT... 45 WNW INL FAR MBG RAP CDR MHN BUB OFK FOD LSE CWA ESC 45 N APN ...CONT... MSS PBG PWM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS SRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OH VALLEY TO MID ATLANTIC AND SWRN NEW ENGLAND... ...SYNOPSIS... MEAN MID-UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN POSITIVELY TILTED FROM N-CENTRAL CANADA SWWD ACROSS PACIFIC NW REGION...WITH SEVERAL TRANSIENT SHORTWAVES MOVING EWD/ENEWD ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS. STRONGEST OF THESE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER CENTRAL ALTA...IS EXPECTED TO TURN SEWD ACROSS SRN SASK AND NRN MT BY 18/00Z. ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS MT AND ND...WITH FRONTAL-WAVE LOW NEAR ND/CANADA BORDER. SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT -- NOW ANALYZED FROM ERN CO NEWD ACROSS NWRN IA -- SHOULD BECOME QUASISTATIONARY BY START OF PERIOD OVER ERN CO AND KS...STRONGLY INFLUENCED ON MESOSCALE BY DAY-1 CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS. MEANWHILE...MOST OF MID/UPPER PERTURBATION NOW OVER ARKLATEX REGION WILL EJECT NEWD AND BECOME ELONGATED/EMBEDDED IN PREVAILING WLYS ACROSS OH VALLEY REGION AND NERN STATES THROUGHOUT PERIOD. PRIMARY VORTICITY CENTER WITH THIS FEATURE IS PROGGED TO ACCELERATE NEWD FROM AR ACROSS WV...WITH TRAILING/WEAK LOBE BACK TOWARD AR. ...OH VALLEY TO NERN STATES... ONE OR TWO WEAK FRONTAL-WAVE LOWS MAY DEVELOP ALONG EWD EXTENSION OF BAROCLINIC ZONE -- FROM IL TO NY. THIS FRONT WILL BE A PRINCIPAL FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL DAY-2...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL POSSIBLE. GREATEST INSTABILITY WILL BE FROM EARLY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH MLCAPE IN 800-1500 J/KG RANGE. PLUME OF LOW-MIDDLE LEVEL MOISTURE AND SLIGHTLY ENHANCED ASCENT ALOFT --- ASSOCIATED WITH LOW-LATITUDE SYSTEM NOW OVER ARKLATEX -- SHOULD SPREAD EWD ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF OUTLOOK AREA DURING DAY. RELATIVELY WEAK CAPPING SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TSTMS IN CLUSTERS. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE NOT FCST TO BE VERY STRONG -- AMIDST EARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP-LAYER FLOW AND MIDLEVEL WINDS 20-30 KT. HOWEVER...THIS REGIME CAN FAVOR FORWARD-PROPAGATING BOWS OR LEWPS GIVEN PRESENCE OF FRONTAL FORCING AND MARGINAL TO MDT INSTABILITY. ...SRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... TSTMS ARE FCST TO DEVELOP AND BECOME SEVERE DURING AFTERNOON FROM SERN WY INTO NERN CO -- SPECIFICALLY OVER ERN-MOST MOUNTAIN RANGES AND ADJACENT CYS/PALMER RIDGES. ADDITIONAL TSTMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG DRYLINE FROM KS/CO BORDER REGION INTO TX PANHANDLE. AFTERNOON ACTIVITY SHOULD EVOLVE EWD INTO PORTIONS WRN/CENTRAL KS OR WRN OK IN FORM OF ONE OR TWO EVENING/NOCTURNAL MCS CLUSTERS WITH SEVERE GUSTS/HAIL POSSIBLE. TORNADO THREAT SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED WITH 1. ANY UPSLOPE SUPERCELLS INTERACTING WITH FRONTAL ZONE...AND 2. DISCRETE SUPERCELLS THAT FORM ALONG DRYLINE AND SURVIVE INTO DEEPER MOIST LAYER 50-100 NM FARTHER E. STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW...MOIST ADVECTION...CONVERGENCE AND SRH ALL WILL BE MAXIMIZED ALONG AND JUST N OF EFFECTIVE FRONT...WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL BE MOST STRONGLY BACKED. THEREFORE GREATEST SEVERE POTENTIAL -- INCLUDING SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND AND PERHAPS TORNADOES -- IS STRONGLY TIED TO PLACEMENT OF CORRIDOR OF POSTFRONTAL ELY/UPSLOPE COMPONENT. THIS IN TURN DEPENDS ON EFFECTS OF DAY-1 CONVECTION. ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS TO FRONTAL PLACEMENT AND WHICH AREA OF INITIAL CONVECTION -- UPSLOPE OR DRYLINE -- WILL BECOME PREDOMINANT MCS...SO THAT THE OUTLOOK IS DRAWN TO ALLOW FOR EITHER POSSIBILITY. ...ND... WIDELY SCATTERED TO ISOLATED TSTMS POSSIBLE MAINLY FROM MID-AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING...WITH MARGINAL SEVERE POTENTIAL. ACTIVITY WILL BE IN REGIME OF LOW LEVEL FRONTAL LIFT AND LARGE SCALE DESTABILIZATION ALOFT...AHEAD OF SASK/MT TROUGH. MODIFIED FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE ACTIVITY WILL BE STRONGLY TIED TO LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY ENHANCEMENT FROM DIABATIC HEATING...AND SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER DARK. WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW AND SHEAR...AND LACK OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL SFC MOISTURE...SHOULD PRECLUDE MORE SIGNIFICANT/ORGANIZED EVENT. HOWEVER...HAIL AND A FEW STRONG GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE. ..EDWARDS.. 06/16/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 17 07:34:30 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 17 Jun 2004 02:34:30 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200406170734.i5H7YJ225124@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 170731 SWODY2 SPC AC 170730 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0230 AM CDT THU JUN 17 2004 VALID 181200Z - 191200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM LTS AMA RTN COS 20 WSW AKO 25 ESE IML 35 E LNK 35 WNW OTM 35 NNW CGX 40 SE AZO 20 SSE DAY 25 E SDF 10 WNW PAH HRO 55 NNE ADM LTS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE GPT MLU DAL BGS 25 SW P07 ...CONT... 15 S ELP ROW TCC 40 N LVS 45 N GUP BCE TPH BIH FAT SAC MHS RDM ALW 50 SSW S06 DLN WRL BFF BUB FOD LSE MTW HTL 10 ENE OSC ...CONT... SSI 35 WNW CTY. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MS VALLEY... BAND OF STRONG WESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS...ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY...INTO NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. MAIN SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE IS EXPECTED TO LIE FROM KS ACROSS CENTRAL IL INTO LOWER MI. VERY MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OH VALLEY. TWO AREAS OF ENHANCED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY APPEAR LIKELY ON DAY2. ...CENTRAL PLAINS... SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN SIMILAR TO LAST FEW DAYS OVER EASTERN CO/WESTERN KS...WITH MODERATELY STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS. MODELS ONCE AGAIN DEPICT WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER THE PLAINS AND FOOTHILLS OF EASTERN CO...SPREADING EASTWARD INTO WESTERN KS/OK DURING THE EVENING. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/KG WILL FAVOR INITIAL SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WITH A RISK OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. STORMS SHOULD ORGANIZE INTO AN MCS AND TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS KS/OK OVERNIGHT WITH A PERSISTENT DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL. ...MID MS AND OH VALLEYS... UPPER SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MID MS AND OH VALLEYS ON FRIDAY. CONVECTIVE CLUSTER REMNANT FROM DAY2 MAY BE ONGOING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER MO/IA DURING THE MORNING. THESE STORMS MAY RE-INTENSIFY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS IL/IND. DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS. ...UPPER OH VALLEY INTO MID ATLANTIC REGION... STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER OH VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC REGION ON FRIDAY. NO DISCERNABLE UPPER FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THIS REGION UNTIL AFTER DARK...SUGGESTING THAT DAYTIME THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED. HOWEVER...VERTICAL SHEAR AND THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL IN ISOLATED STORMS THAT CAN FORM. ..HART.. 06/17/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 18 07:37:51 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 18 Jun 2004 02:37:51 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200406180738.i5I7ca217759@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 180736 SWODY2 SPC AC 180734 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0234 AM CDT FRI JUN 18 2004 VALID 191200Z - 201200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE COS 35 WSW LAR 30 E RIW 45 SSE BIL 15 NNW 4BQ 10 E RAP 35 SSW MHN 15 SSE DHT 40 NNE HOB 30 S ROW 40 NNW ROW 35 ESE LVS 20 SSE COS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NW HVR 80 SW GGW 40 WNW Y22 50 NW AXN 25 NNE MSP 25 NNE ALO 20 NE LWD 20 E MHK 30 SE ICT 15 SE TUL 55 N LIT 20 NW ARG 35 SE VIH ALN 20 NNW BMG 30 NNW UNI 35 NNW CXY 45 SE UCA 35 ENE MSS ...CONT... 40 W ELP 40 SSE LVS 30 W PUB 40 NW 4FC 55 NW CAG 45 NE U24 ELY 30 SSE EKO 25 NW MLD 10 NW IDA 10 SSW 27U 30 SSE BKE 45 ENE 4LW 30 ENE SVE 65 N SAC 45 WNW RBL 40 E CEC EUG 10 ENE OLM 35 N 63S. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE CNTRL AND SRN HI PLNS... ...SYNOPSIS... FLAT RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FROM THE SRN PLNS TO S ATLANTIC CST ON SATURDAY...WHILE MODERATE WLY FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE NATION. A SPEED MAX IN CONFLUENT JET PATTERN OVER SRN ONTARIO WILL CROSS QUEBEC AND NRN NEW ENG. IN THE WEST...A PART OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER WA SHOULD SHEAR E ACROSS THE NRN RCKYS AND REACH THE NRN HI PLNS BY 12Z SUNDAY. ...CNTRL/SRN HI PLNS... SURFACE ANTICYCLONE DEVELOPING SWD ACROSS THE PLNS DURING THE NEXT 36 HRS WILL SHUNT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE W TO THE FOOTHILLS OF THE CNTRL AND SRN RCKYS. DESPITE ABSENCE OF ANY IDENTIFIABLE LARGE SCALE FORCING...COMBINATION OF WEAK UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO LOW LEVEL FLOW...MODERATE MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH AFTERNOON HEATING FROM CNTRL/ERN WY SWD INTO ERN CO AND NM. AMPLE /40-50 KT/ DEEP WLY SHEAR...ASSOCIATED WITH THE SRN EDGE OF THE WLYS...WILL BE PRESENT TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL/LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND AND PERHAPS A COUPLE TORNADOES IN WY AND CO. THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR THROUGHOUT THE REGION WILL LIKELY BE RELATIVELY NARROW W/E EXTENT OF SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY AXIS. SOME OF THE CONVECTION MAY CONSOLIDATE INTO AN ELEVATED MCS THAT MOVES E INTO NEB SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR HAIL. FARTHER S IN NM...EXPECT STORMS TO BE MORE DIURNAL AND PULSE IN NATURE...WHERE DEEP SHEAR WILL REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK /AOB 25 KT/. ...UPPER SOUTH... SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP WITH DAYTIME HEATING INVOF WEAKENING COLD FRONT OVER THE TN VLY...WHERE SURFACE-BASED MLCAPE MAY REACH 3000 J/KG...BUT DEEP SHEAR WILL BE WEAK. ...NEW ENG... A FEW STORMS MAY PRECEDE FAST-MOVING IMPULSE CROSSING QUEBEC. BUT WEAK LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SHALLOW CONVERGENCE SHOULD LIMIT STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DESPITE PRESENCE OF FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE ASCENT/DEEP SHEAR. ..CORFIDI.. 06/18/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 18 17:28:23 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 18 Jun 2004 12:28:23 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200406181729.i5IHT6213863@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 181726 SWODY2 SPC AC 181725 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1225 PM CDT FRI JUN 18 2004 VALID 191200Z - 201200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE COS 35 WSW LAR 30 E RIW 35 N WRL 30 NNW GCC 15 WNW RAP 35 SSW MHN 15 SSE DHT 35 WNW INK 35 NW GDP 40 NNW ROW 35 ESE LVS 20 SSE COS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W ELP 50 SSW LVS 30 W PUB 40 NW 4FC 55 NW CAG 45 NE U24 ELY 30 SSE EKO 25 NW MLD 30 N PIH 50 ENE BOI 50 W BOI 45 ENE 4LW 30 ENE SVE 65 N SAC 45 WNW RBL 40 E CEC EUG 10 ENE OLM 35 N 63S ...CONT... 65 NW HVR 80 SW GGW 40 WNW Y22 50 NW AXN 25 NNE MSP 25 NNE ALO 20 NE LWD 20 E MHK 30 SE ICT 15 SE TUL 55 N LIT 20 NW ARG 35 SE VIH ALN 20 NNW BMG 30 NNW UNI 35 NNW CXY 45 SE UCA 35 ENE MSS. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... BAND OF MODEST ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE CONUS. ONE UPPER TROUGH MOVES FROM NEW ENGLAND TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND AN ELONGATED TROUGH/MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY FROM THE NRN ROCKIES WWD TO THE COLUMBIA RIVER VALLEY. PRIMARY SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT WILL PRECEDE LARGE SURFACE ANTICYCLONE SETTLING INTO THE MID WEST/OH VALLEY AND MOVE ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY 2 PERIOD. TRAILING PORTIONS OF THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. FARTHER TO THE WEST...THE FRONT WILL BE QUASISTATIONARY AND ALIGNED SOUTH TO NORTH ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM ERN NM TO WY/MT. MOIST POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW WILL AGAIN AID TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE ERN SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES. ...CNTRL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS... NARROW CORRIDOR OF MODEST INSTABILITY SHOULD AGAIN DEVELOP WITHIN POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME FROM ERN NM N-NWWD INTO CNTRL WY. WLY MID LEVEL FLOW OF 30-50KT WILL MAINTAIN BOTH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THESE REGIONS. INITIAL ACTIVITY WILL MOST LIKELY ACQUIRE SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS WITH A LARGE HAIL AND TORNADO THREAT. EVENTUALLY STORMS MAY MERGE INTO ONE OR TWO COMPLEXES WITH ONE POSSIBLY BECOMING ELEVATED AND SPREADING ESEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS...THE OTHER POSSIBLY BACKBUILDING INTO MOIST AXIS/LLJ ACROSS THE UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. ...TN VALLEY... DESPITE RELATIVELY WEAK LAPSE RATES ACROSS THIS REGION...FRONTAL CIRCULATION MAY SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER STORMS IN VERY MOIST AND AT LEAST MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. PRIMARY HAZARD FROM THIS CONVECTION WILL BE ISOLD TO WIDELY SCATTERED DOWNBURST WINDS. ...MID ATLANTIC... STRONG INSTABILITY IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC COASTAL PLAIN. A FEW INTENSE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND ALONG POSSIBLE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES BY LATE IN THE DAY WITH A SMALL THREAT OF WIND/HAIL. ..CARBIN.. 06/18/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 19 07:35:46 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 19 Jun 2004 02:35:46 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200406190736.i5J7aV223283@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 190734 SWODY2 SPC AC 190733 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0233 AM CDT SAT JUN 19 2004 VALID 201200Z - 211200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE END 15 NE CAO 30 SSE PUB 20 WSW FCL 25 NW DGW 35 ESE 81V 50 SE PHP 35 NNW BUB 25 E LBF 30 WNW CNK 50 ENE MKC 45 NNW POF 15 SW ARG 30 N HOT 15 NE MLC 20 ENE END. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 S GBN 45 SSW INW 45 SE GNT 40 WSW RTN 50 SE GUC 30 NW GJT 50 WSW ENV 15 W OWY 40 NNW SVE 45 NE ACV 30 SE EUG 25 SE AST 25 ENE BLI ...CONT... 10 NE ANJ 35 NNE GRB 50 NE ALO 15 N MMO 30 SSE JXN 25 W CAK 45 WSW EKN 35 WNW GSO 35 ESE AND 25 W ANB 40 SSW MGM 35 SW ABY 20 ENE SSI ...CONT... 35 E PSX 45 SE AUS 10 WNW TPL 10 NNW DUA 25 SW OKC 65 SW SPS 40 NE SJT 70 SSE MAF 30 SE P07. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL PLNS/LWR MO VLY... ...SYNOPSIS... SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL OVER THE LWR 48 ON SUNDAY...DOWNSTREAM FROM PERSISTENT BLOCK OVER THE NRN BC CST. AN IMPULSE IN THE NRN STREAM...NOW OVER THE NW TERRITORIES...WILL DROP S ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN ON SUNDAY BEFORE TURNING SE INTO WRN ONTARIO/NRN MN ON MONDAY. FARTHER S...A SERIES OF COMPARATIVELY WEAKER IMPULSES EMANATING FROM STATIONARY UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NW AND OVER CA WILL SHEAR E/ESE ACROSS THE NRN/CNTRL RCKYS INTO THE CNTRL PLNS. AT LOWER LEVELS...COOL HIGH PRESSURE NOW OVER THE CNTRL PLNS SHOULD EDGE E TO THE MID ATLANTIC CST AS LEE TROUGHING INCREASES OVER THE CNTRL HI PLNS. THIS WILL ALLOW FRONT NOW MOVING S ACROSS OK TO RETURN NWD AS WARM FRONT ACROSS KS AND MO. OVER THE NRN TIER... SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH SASKATCHEWAN IMPULSE WILL TRACK E ACROSS MANITOBA/WRN QUEBEC...AND DRAG A COLD FRONT AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ACROSS THE DAKS AND MN. ...ERN CO/SE WY INTO NEB/KS/MO... AN AREA OF ELEVATED CONVECTION/POSSIBLE MCS MAY BE PRESENT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD IN WARM ADVECTION ZONE N OF RETURNING WARM FRONT IN NRN KS/NEB. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS. A BETTER CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER MAY DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AS SURFACE HEATING AND CONTINUED MOISTURE INFLOW DESTABILIZE REGION ON SRN FRINGE OF MCS ACROSS ERN KS AND WRN MO. SUFFICIENT /40+ KT/ DEEP WNWLY SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT TO SUPPORT BOWING SEGMENTS WITH HIGH WIND/HAIL. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD REACH THE AR BORDER BY EVENING. FARTHER W...ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY FORM WITH AFTERNOON HEATING IN AREA OF WEAK CONVERGENCE AND UPSLOPE FLOW N AND E OF LEE CYCLONE/ TROUGH AXIS FROM SE WY/SW NEB SEWD INTO ERN CO AND WRN KS. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE MODULATED BY DEGREE OF SURFACE HEATING...AND BY PASSING DISTURBANCES IN SRN STREAM FLOW. COMBINATION OF 40 KT WLY MID LEVEL FLOW...LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR INVOF LOW/TROUGH...INCREASING MOISTURE INFLOW AND ABSENCE OF STRONG LINEAR FORCING ALL SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR A FEW DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WITH POSSIBLE TORNADOES....IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL/HIGH WIND. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONSOLIDATE INTO AN MCS OR TWO THAT MOVE E/SE ACROSS NEB/KS SUNDAY NIGHT. ...NRN PLN/UPR MS VLY... WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS...INCLUDING ONE OR TWO SUPERCELLS...MAY FORM WITH AFTERNOON HEATING ALONG PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH CROSSING THE DAKS/MN. LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE STEEP...BUT CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL BE WEAK. ...NRN GRT BASIN... WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY SHEAR AXIS OVER THE NRN GRT BASIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ..CORFIDI.. 06/19/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 19 17:36:28 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 19 Jun 2004 12:36:28 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200406191737.i5JHb8203200@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 191735 SWODY2 SPC AC 191733 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1233 PM CDT SAT JUN 19 2004 VALID 201200Z - 211200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM TAD COS DEN FCL CYS 50 E DGW CDR VTN MHE FSD SUX LNK BIE FLV 30 NNE SZL 40 WNW TBN HRO FSM MLC OKC CSM DHT TAD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM GLS HOU 45 SW TYR DAL FTW SEP DRT ...CONT... DUG SAD 60 NNW SVC ALM ROW CVS 40 NE TCC RTN RKS OWY SVE 25 SW MHS MFR 50 NE BLI ...CONT... 55 ENE MQT RHI EAU RST ALO CID DEC BMG HTS BKW PSK HKY SPA CAE CRE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS TO OZARK REGION... ...SYNOPSIS... SPLIT FLOW WILL CONTINUE IN MID-UPPER LEVELS OVER PACIFIC COAST REGION. LARGELY ZONAL FLOW DOWNSTREAM ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN STATES IS FCST TO BUCKLE SOMEWHAT IN UPPER MIDWEST...AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES SEWD FROM MANITOBA ACROSS MN/ERN SD LATE IN PERIOD. THIS FEATURE NOW IS EVIDENT ON MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY APCHG EXTREME NRN SASK/ALTA FROM POLAR LATITUDES. ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM NWRN ONT ACROSS NRN/WRN MN...CENTRAL/SWRN SD AND SERN WY BY 21/00Z. SEPARATE SFC CYCLONE SHOULD DEEPEN OVER S-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...BETWEEN E-CENTRAL CO AND NRN TX PANHANDLE. MORE PRECISE POSITION DEPENDS STRONGLY ON OUTFLOW EFFECTS OF DAY-1 AND EARLY MORNING CONVECTION. THIS LOW SHOULD LINK WITH SFC COLD FRONT OVER NWRN OK BY END OF PERIOD...AGAIN WITH SOME POSITIONAL UNCERTAINTY BECAUSE OF CONVECTIVE INFLUENCES. MEANWHILE...CONVECTIVELY MODULATED SFC FRONT NOW OVER RED RIVER REGION WILL DRIFT NWD ACROSS PORTIONS OK AND TX PANHANDLE...RESULTING IN TWO LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONES FOR POTENTIAL DAY-2 CONVECTIVE FOCI. ...CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS...OZARKS AFTER DARK... MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL AND STRONG GUSTS MAY ACCOMPANY ONGOING CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL PLAINS...IF OVERNIGHT MCS DEVELOPS DAY-1 AS PROGS INDICATE. HOWEVER...MORE SUBSTANTIVE SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL DEVELOP LATER DURING AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SFC FLOW WILL BE MOST STRONGLY BACKED N THROUGH NE OF SFC LOW AND N OF WARM FRONT DURING AFTERNOON...WITH SIGNIFICANT ELY COMPONENT SUPPORTING UPSLOPE MOIST ADVECTION. ETA FCSTS ONLY 5-10 KT FLOW THROUGH FIRST 200-300 MB AGL. HOWEVER...PRIND ISALLOBARIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH CYCLONE WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF 10-20 KT WINDS IN BOUNDARY LAYER...ENLARGING 0-3 KM AGL HODOGRAPH ENOUGH TO SUPPORT STORM ROTATION WITH 150-300 J/KG SRH. SFC LAYER ELYS WILL COMBINE WITH AROUND 30 KT MIDLEVEL FLOW TO RESULT IN DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ALSO FAVORABLE FOR AFTERNOON SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS REGION. MOST PROBABLE INITIATION LOCATIONS ARE FAVORED AREAS OF OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED ASCENT SUCH AS RATON MESA OR PALMER RIDGE. MORE CONDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR INVOF DRYLINE OVER TX PANHANDLE...DIRECTLY ALONG WARM FRONT E OF SFC LOW. 8-9 DEG C MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AFTERNOON MLCAPE 2000-3000 J/KG AWAY FROM OUTFLOW POOLS. ONE OR TWO MCS MAY EVOLVE FROM THIS ACTIVITY OR DEVELOP SEPARATELY TO ITS E...SUPPORTED BY MOIST 40-50 KT LLJ AFTER 21/03Z. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE EWD ACROSS KS AND/OR NRN/CENTRAL OK TOWARD OZARKS WITH POTENTIAL FOR INTERMITTENT WIND DAMAGE AND MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL. ...CENTRAL LOW PLAINS TO UPPER MIDWEST... AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING CONVECTION ALSO MAY FORM INVOF SFC COLD FRONT NEWD ACROSS SRN/ERN NEB INTO MN...BUT WITH MORE MARGINAL/CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT BECAUSE OF WEAKER THETAE IN INFLOW LAYER. BECAUSE OF STRENGTHENING MIDLEVEL GRADIENT FLOW AHEAD OF NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH...DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES FAVOR SUPERCELLS...A FEW OF WHICH MAY DEVELOP IN BRIEF WINDOW DURING LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WITH HAIL POSSIBLE. ..EDWARDS.. 06/19/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 20 07:36:14 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 20 Jun 2004 02:36:14 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200406200737.i5K7bj210903@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 200735 SWODY2 SPC AC 200733 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0233 AM CDT SUN JUN 20 2004 VALID 211200Z - 221200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE SPS 20 SE BGS 40 ESE HOB 20 N CVS 30 E LVS 30 NE ALS 40 NNW LHX 30 NNE EHA 35 E EMP 30 SSW TBN 10 ESE MDH 15 SW BWG 35 WNW MSL 15 S TXK 20 ENE SPS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NW ROC 20 NNE FKL 15 NNE AOO 20 ESE AVP 20 SW GON ...CONT... 25 WSW 7R4 50 N POE 35 NW FTW 20 NNE SJT 30 WNW DRT ...CONT... 50 WSW FHU 30 N DUG 40 E DMN 15 W GDP 35 SE ROW 60 ENE 4CR 20 WSW LVS 50 SSE GUC 40 W ASE 45 E VEL 30 S BPI 40 WNW RIW 20 E CPR 40 ENE CYS 35 WSW IML 35 SSW EAR 10 WNW OMA 10 ENE FOD 35 E EAU 45 ENE IWD 110 N CMX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NE CTB 25 NNE HLN 27U 35 SW LWS 55 ENE RDM 15 SSW 4LW 30 S NFL 25 WSW BIH 20 SE SCK 45 E EKA 40 SE OTH 30 E AST 20 NE BLI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL/SRN PLNS AND OZARKS... ...SYNOPSIS... SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE NATION ON MONDAY AS RIDGE HOLDS FIRM ALONG THE NRN BC CST AND HUDSON BAY LOW RETROGRESSES W TOWARD THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. FARTHER S...MAIN PART OF TROUGH NOW OVER THE PAC NW WILL SHEAR E/SE ACROSS THE CNTRL RCKYS AND JOIN FORCES WITH A NRN STREAM IMPULSE /THE ONE NOW OVER SASKATCHEWAN-MANITOBA/...TO RESULT IN A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE PLNS/MS VLY BY 12Z TUESDAY. AT LOWER LEVELS...FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH CANADIAN DISTURBANCE SHOULD REACH THE UPR GRT LKS/MID MS VLY AND CNTRL PLNS MONDAY AFTERNOON. OF GREATER SIGNIFICANCE TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THIS PERIOD... HOWEVER...WILL BE WEAKER BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO EXIST FARTHER S...FROM THE OK/TX PANHANDLE REGION E/NE INTO SRN MO. THIS FEATURE...MARKING IN PART /1/ OLD FRONTAL SURGE ASSOCIATED WITH PREVIOUS SRN STREAM IMPULSE AND /2/ CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW FROM CURRENT WRN KS MCS AND LATER DAY ONE ACTIVITY...WILL LIKELY SERVE AS MAIN FOCUS FOR STRONG STORM DEVELOPMENT ON MONDAY. ...SE CO/ERN NM EWD INTO OK/SRN KS AND THE MO/AR OZARKS... A STRONG TO POSSIBLY MARGINALLY SEVERE MCS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD N OF WEAK FRONT OVER SRN KS...WHERE LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND MOISTURE INFLOW WILL BE MAXIMIZED ALONG FRINGE OF SRN STREAM JET. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE GENERALLY E/SE INTO PARTS OF OK/SRN MO AND NRN AR LATER IN THE DAY...WITH INTENSIFICATION LIKELY AS DAYTIME HEATING BOOSTS MLCAPE TO AOA 2000 J/KG. LINEAR FORCING ALONG CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW AND 40-45 KT DEEP WNWLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH 35-40 KT SRN STREAM JET SHOULD SUPPORT EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND BOWING SEGMENTS WITH HAIL/HIGH WIND. DIURNAL WEAKENING OF CAP MAY ALSO ALLOW FOR BACK-BUILDING OF ACTIVITY WWD ACROSS CNTRL AND WRN OK...WHERE STRENGTH OF DEEP SHEAR AND BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S COULD SUPPORT A COUPLE TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO HAIL/HIGH WIND. FARTHER W/NW...WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW AND COOL AIR ALOFT MAY ALSO SUPPORT SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS WITH HAIL ACROSS FAR SE CO/ERN NM AND THE OK/TX PANHANDLES. ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONSOLIDATE INTO A LARGE MCS THAT DROPS SE TOWARD THE RED RIVER MONDAY NIGHT. ..CORFIDI.. 06/20/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 20 07:36:14 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 20 Jun 2004 02:36:14 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200406200738.i5K7cW211436@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 200735 SWODY2 SPC AC 200733 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0233 AM CDT SUN JUN 20 2004 VALID 211200Z - 221200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE SPS 20 SE BGS 40 ESE HOB 20 N CVS 30 E LVS 30 NE ALS 40 NNW LHX 30 NNE EHA 35 E EMP 30 SSW TBN 10 ESE MDH 15 SW BWG 35 WNW MSL 15 S TXK 20 ENE SPS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NW ROC 20 NNE FKL 15 NNE AOO 20 ESE AVP 20 SW GON ...CONT... 25 WSW 7R4 50 N POE 35 NW FTW 20 NNE SJT 30 WNW DRT ...CONT... 50 WSW FHU 30 N DUG 40 E DMN 15 W GDP 35 SE ROW 60 ENE 4CR 20 WSW LVS 50 SSE GUC 40 W ASE 45 E VEL 30 S BPI 40 WNW RIW 20 E CPR 40 ENE CYS 35 WSW IML 35 SSW EAR 10 WNW OMA 10 ENE FOD 35 E EAU 45 ENE IWD 110 N CMX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NE CTB 25 NNE HLN 27U 35 SW LWS 55 ENE RDM 15 SSW 4LW 30 S NFL 25 WSW BIH 20 SE SCK 45 E EKA 40 SE OTH 30 E AST 20 NE BLI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL/SRN PLNS AND OZARKS... ...SYNOPSIS... SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE NATION ON MONDAY AS RIDGE HOLDS FIRM ALONG THE NRN BC CST AND HUDSON BAY LOW RETROGRESSES W TOWARD THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. FARTHER S...MAIN PART OF TROUGH NOW OVER THE PAC NW WILL SHEAR E/SE ACROSS THE CNTRL RCKYS AND JOIN FORCES WITH A NRN STREAM IMPULSE /THE ONE NOW OVER SASKATCHEWAN-MANITOBA/...TO RESULT IN A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE PLNS/MS VLY BY 12Z TUESDAY. AT LOWER LEVELS...FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH CANADIAN DISTURBANCE SHOULD REACH THE UPR GRT LKS/MID MS VLY AND CNTRL PLNS MONDAY AFTERNOON. OF GREATER SIGNIFICANCE TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THIS PERIOD... HOWEVER...WILL BE WEAKER BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO EXIST FARTHER S...FROM THE OK/TX PANHANDLE REGION E/NE INTO SRN MO. THIS FEATURE...MARKING IN PART /1/ OLD FRONTAL SURGE ASSOCIATED WITH PREVIOUS SRN STREAM IMPULSE AND /2/ CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW FROM CURRENT WRN KS MCS AND LATER DAY ONE ACTIVITY...WILL LIKELY SERVE AS MAIN FOCUS FOR STRONG STORM DEVELOPMENT ON MONDAY. ...SE CO/ERN NM EWD INTO OK/SRN KS AND THE MO/AR OZARKS... A STRONG TO POSSIBLY MARGINALLY SEVERE MCS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD N OF WEAK FRONT OVER SRN KS...WHERE LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND MOISTURE INFLOW WILL BE MAXIMIZED ALONG FRINGE OF SRN STREAM JET. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE GENERALLY E/SE INTO PARTS OF OK/SRN MO AND NRN AR LATER IN THE DAY...WITH INTENSIFICATION LIKELY AS DAYTIME HEATING BOOSTS MLCAPE TO AOA 2000 J/KG. LINEAR FORCING ALONG CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW AND 40-45 KT DEEP WNWLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH 35-40 KT SRN STREAM JET SHOULD SUPPORT EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND BOWING SEGMENTS WITH HAIL/HIGH WIND. DIURNAL WEAKENING OF CAP MAY ALSO ALLOW FOR BACK-BUILDING OF ACTIVITY WWD ACROSS CNTRL AND WRN OK...WHERE STRENGTH OF DEEP SHEAR AND BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S COULD SUPPORT A COUPLE TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO HAIL/HIGH WIND. FARTHER W/NW...WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW AND COOL AIR ALOFT MAY ALSO SUPPORT SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS WITH HAIL ACROSS FAR SE CO/ERN NM AND THE OK/TX PANHANDLES. ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONSOLIDATE INTO A LARGE MCS THAT DROPS SE TOWARD THE RED RIVER MONDAY NIGHT. ..CORFIDI.. 06/20/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 20 17:29:26 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 20 Jun 2004 12:29:26 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200406201730.i5KHU2224332@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 201727 SWODY2 SPC AC 201726 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1226 PM CDT SUN JUN 20 2004 VALID 211200Z - 221200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DAL 25 SSE BGS 40 ESE HOB TCC 30 S RTN 15 ESE TAD 40 SSW LAA LBL OJC 45 NW STL 45 NNE EVV BNA 40 S MSL TXK DAL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE CRP VCT 25 WNW HOU 30 NE LCH BTR 25 WSW MCB 25 NNW HEZ 20 SSE SHV ACT 30 NW JCT 30 WNW DRT ...CONT... 65 SSW MRF 20 WSW ROW LVS GUC MLF 60 SE TVL 55 W RBL OTH 45 ENE BLI ...CONT... 60 NE CTB HLN 50 SSW S80 45 ESE BNO OWY MLD 50 NW LND WRL 60 SSE 81V CDR LBF OFK SPW 30 WNW EAU 30 NE CMX ...CONT... 55 W ART 40 NE BFD IPT 30 W BDR 25 S GON. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 S GBN 40 NNW TUS SAD SVC 40 W ELP. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS EWD INTO THE WRN LOWER OH/TN VALLEYS... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE PACIFIC NW NWD INTO WRN CANADA...WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH SITUATED OVER CENTRAL CANADA SWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY. A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH... MOVING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE...WILL AMPLIFY THE CANADIAN TROUGH SWD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MID MS RIVER VALLEY DURING THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE AMPLIFYING TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY...WILL REACH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES/MID MS VLY AND CENTRAL/SRN PLNS MONDAY AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME TIME...A WEAK BOUNDARY/WARM FRONT IS ALSO EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM THE TX PANHANDLE/WRN OK EWD INTO NRN AR. ...SERN CO/NERN NM EWD ACROSS OK... OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM CONVECTION TONIGHT AND LEFTOVER CLOUDS MAY SLOW DOWN HEATING AND INHIBIT DESTABILIZATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER 65-70 DEGREE DEWPOINTS ALONG WITH 8-9C/KM MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NEAR 90 DEGREES WILL RESULT IN MLCAPES FROM 2500-3500 J/KG BY LATE AFTERNOON. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD THROUGH THE TX PANHANDLE/NWRN OK AND WEAK BOUNDARY FROM THE WRN OK INTO NRN AR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE STORMS BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE 10-15 KT OR LESS IN THE LOWER 3 KM...DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 35 KT AND THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS AND SEVERE HAIL. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW SUFFICIENT TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER FOR SOME DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS. STORM OUTFLOWS ARE LIKELY TO ORGANIZE INTO AN MCS AND TRACK ESEWD INTO PORTIONS OF NRN TX/WRN AR OVERNIGHT WITH A WIND THREAT STILL POSSIBLE. MODELS SUGGEST OTHER STORMS WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SERN CO/NERN NM MONDAY EVENING. THOUGH THIS AREA WILL BE BEHIND THE FRONT...UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD PROVIDE FAVORABLE LIFT FOR CONVECTION. DAYTIME HEATING AND STEEP LAPSE RATES SHOULD RESULT IN MLCAPES FROM 1000-1500 J/KG. DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS AND 30-40 KT WNWLY FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN THESE STORMS EVOLVING QUICKLY INTO AN MCS...WITH SEVERE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE TX/OK PANHANDLES MONDAY NIGHT. ...SERN KS/NERN OK EWD INTO SRN IL/WRN KY/WRN TN AND WRN AL... A STRONG TO POSSIBLY MARGINALLY SEVERE MCS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD OVER ERN KS...WHERE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET/THETA-E ADVECTION WILL BE MAXIMIZED. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE E/SEWD INTO PARTS OF NERN OK/WRN MO DURING THE MORNING AND THEN TOWARD THE WRN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER OH/TN VALLEYS DURING THE AFTERNOON. MODELS SUGGEST STORMS WILL BE MAINTAINED BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND INTENSIFICATION IS LIKELY AS DAYTIME HEATING BOOSTS MLCAPE VALUES TO AOA 2000 J/KG. LINEAR FORCING ALONG CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW AND 30-40 WLY MID LEVEL FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT BOWING SEGMENTS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME HAIL. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD WEAKEN AS THE STORMS REACH THE ERN END OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON ...WHERE THE INSTABILITY SHOULD BE WEAKER THAN AREAS TO THE WEST. ..IMY.. 06/20/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 21 07:43:28 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 21 Jun 2004 02:43:28 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200406210744.i5L7i3225102@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 210741 SWODY2 SPC AC 210740 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0240 AM CDT MON JUN 21 2004 VALID 221200Z - 231200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NE HSE 25 WSW RDU 55 NNW AHN 15 WSW GWO 40 SE PGO 10 ENE HRO 30 SSW SDF 35 E PKB 40 S UCA 15 NW PSF 15 E ISP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SSW GBN 40 WNW PHX INW 30 ENE GUP 25 WSW ALS 35 W COS 35 W LAR 35 NNW BPI 55 S 27U 40 SSW BKE 45 NE 4LW 50 ENE SVE 45 S NFL 60 NE MER 15 E SAC 25 WNW RBL 30 WNW MFR 10 S SLE 25 ESE OLM 20 ENE BLI ...CONT... 25 NNW ANJ 15 W OSH 25 E ALO 30 ENE OMA 40 NE MCK 50 E LAA 60 NE AMA 30 E OKC 30 WNW JLN 20 NNW BMG 25 ENE MFD 20 NW BUF ...CONT... 40 ENE CRP 10 SSW LRD. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE TN VLY/LWR MS VLY E/NE TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES... ...SYNOPSIS... AN UNUSUALLY BLOCKY PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS NOAM THIS PERIOD...AS UPPER RIDGES PERSIST OVER BOTH WRN CANADA AND THE DAVIS STRAIT. SLIGHT RETROGRESSION OF THE LATTER BLOCK WILL DRIVE STRONG POLAR IMPULSE NOW IN NUNAVUT SWD ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN/ MANITOBA LATER TODAY. THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE E/SE ACROSS WRN ONTARIO AND NRN MN ON TUESDAY...WHERE IT WILL SERVE TO MAINTAIN A BROAD SWATH OF CYCLONIC FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE NRN AND ERN U.S. FARTHER S...THE LAST IN A SERIES OF SRN STREAM DISTURBANCES ORIGINATING IN THE NRN GRT BASIN WILL TRACK E ACROSS THE TN VLY...AND PARTIALLY PHASE WITH NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW ENTERING THE NRN PLNS. THE COMBINED SYSTEM SHOULD REACH THE NRN/CNTRL APPALACHIANS BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. ...LWR MS/TN VLYS E/NE TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES... A CLUSTER OR TWO OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD OVER PARTS OF OK AND AR...IN WARM ADVECTION AREA DOWNSTREAM FROM AFOREMENTIONED SRN STREAM IMPULSE. WHILE LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD WEAKEN AS UPPER IMPULSE IS ABSORBED IN CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT...THE STORMS SHOULD MOVE/DEVELOP EWD INTO THE TN VLY LATER IN THE DAY...BEING DRIVEN LARGELY BY SURFACE HEATING AND CONVERGENCE ALONG CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW. COMBINATION OF FAIRLY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES /APCHG 7 DEG C PER KM/...RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE INFLOW /DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S/ AND MODERATE /30 KT/ UNIDIRECTIONAL WSWLY MEAN FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT ORGANIZED BANDS OF STORMS WITH BOWING SEGMENTS/LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT. FARTHER NE...EXPECT THAT LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ON THE WHOLE WILL BE SOMEWHAT WEAKER FROM THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS TO THE MID ATLANTIC CST...WHERE LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND CONTINUED LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO ABUNDANT CLOUDS. ONE EXCEPTION MIGHT BE IN THE LEE OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS ACROSS CNTRL PORTIONS OF MD/VA...WHERE MEAN WLY FLOW SHOULD TEND TO SCOUR RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. SURFACE HEATING...CONVERGENCE ALONG COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH PHASING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...AND WEAK LARGE SCALE ASCENT MAY SUFFICIENTLY DESTABILIZE REGION TO SUPPORT STORM DEVELOPMENT BY MID AFTERNOON FROM WRN PARTS OF NC NWD INTO SRN/ERN PA. BAND OF 40-50 KT WSWLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AMPLE DEEP SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORMS/SUPERCELLS...IF SUSTAINED ACTIVITY DOES INDEED DEVELOP. LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL EVEN BE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES ALONG LEE TROUGH FROM ERN VA NEWD INTO ERN PA/NJ... ASSUMING STORMS ARE ABLE TO REMAIN DISCRETE. WHILE IT APPEARS ATTM THAT WEAK INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY LIMIT COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF SEVERE THREAT IN THE EAST...ESPECIALLY N OF MD...THERE WILL EXIST AT LEAST A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR HIGH WIND AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR TWO IF SUSTAINED STORMS DO INDEED FORM. GIVEN LIMITED INSTABILITY...ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH WITH SUNSET. ...UPR MS VLY/UPR GRT LKS... STRONG LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF POTENT IMPULSE DROPPING S FROM MANITOBA...COUPLED WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AND PREFRONTAL TROUGH...MAY YIELD A BAND OF LOW-TOPPED STORMS IN AXIS OF STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM ERN SD INTO MN/NRN WI. LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABILITY /DEWPOINTS AROUND 50/ WILL PROBABLY PRECLUDE A WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT...BUT ISOLATED STORMS COULD YIELD HIGH WIND AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ..CORFIDI.. 06/21/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 21 17:40:02 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 21 Jun 2004 12:40:02 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200406211740.i5LHee219425@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 211738 SWODY2 SPC AC 211736 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1236 PM CDT MON JUN 21 2004 VALID 221200Z - 231200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NE HSE 25 WSW RDU 55 NNW AHN 15 WSW GWO 40 SE PGO 10 ENE HRO 30 SSW SDF 10 ENE HLG SYR SLK MPV CON 15 E ISP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW ANJ OSH ALO SUX ANW AIA SNY 50 E LAA BVO UMN CGI LUK CMH ERI ...CONT... 40 ENE CRP 10 SSW LRD ...CONT... 35 WSW FHU TUS 40 NE TUS SOW INW 60 NE INW DRO 10 SE GUC 10 ESE CAG LND DLN S80 PDT RDM 60 NNE LMT MFR EUG PDX 25 ESE OLM 20 ENE BLI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LOWER MS/TN VALLEYS INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES.... MODELS INDICATE BLOCKED UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD AND BEYOND. EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS REGIME...MOST SIGNIFICANT FEATURE TO INFLUENCE THE U.S. APPEARS LIKELY TO BE DEEP CLOSED LOW NOW EVOLVING OVER THE CENTRAL CANADIAN PROVINCES. COLD MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY DEVELOP SOUTHWARD ACROSS MANITOBA TUESDAY...WITH SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS/JET STREAKS ROTATING AROUND ITS WESTERN/SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. IN BROADER CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW REGIME TO THE SOUTH/EAST OF THIS FEATURE... ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO ACCELERATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY REGION. A COUPLE OF WEAKER BELTS OF WESTERLIES WILL PREVAIL OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER STATES...ONE CURVING OUT OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...THE OTHER CURVING AROUND NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE GULF/SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES. ...LOWER GREAT LAKES/UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO NEW ENGLAND... IN ASSOCIATION WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH...MODELS INDICATE 50 TO 70 KT JET STREAK SPREADING ACROSS WARM SECTOR AIR MASS OVER THE UPPER OHIO/HUDSON VALLEY REGION DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS TUESDAY. STRONGER LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP EASTWARD AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...AND LINGERING CLOUD COVER IN ITS WAKE PROVIDES SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO SURFACE HEATING AND MAGNITUDE OF DESTABILIZATION ACROSS NEW YORK/PENNSYLVANIA. HOWEVER...WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS INCREASING THROUGH THE LOWER/MID 60S...ENOUGH INSOLATION APPEARS POSSIBLE TO CONTRIBUTE TO MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG. THIS DESTABILIZATION WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN MODERATE TO STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. STRONG DAMAGING WIND GUSTS APPEAR LIKELY IN FAST MOVING STORMS...WHICH SHOULD ORGANIZE IN SEVERAL SMALL LINES OR CLUSTERS...WITH LARGE HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE IN STRONGEST CELLS. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD FROM THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS MID TUESDAY AFTERNOON...INTO PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE NORTHERN/MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS BEFORE DIMINISHING TUESDAY EVENING. ...GULF COAST STATES/LWR MS VLY/TENNESSEE VALLEYS... MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE LARGE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS/RED RIVER VALLEY EARLY IN THE PERIOD. ACTIVITY LIKELY WILL WEAKEN DURING THE MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER/MID 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN TIER STATES...MOIST/POTENTIALLY VERY BUOYANT AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT RISK FOR RE-GENERATION OF ONE OR MORE CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS. BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE WITH REMNANT JET STREAK/CYCLONIC VORTICITY CENTER WHICH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD OUT OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY MORNING...INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THOUGH HAIL THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL...ENHANCED LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW MAY CONTRIBUTE TO POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUST FRONT FROM THE PEAK HEATING HOURS INTO MID EVENING. OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ADVANCING SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER INTO EAST TEXAS COULD BECOME FOCUS FOR ANOTHER CLUSTER OF STORMS. FLOW FIELDS WILL BE MUCH WEAKER ACROSS THIS AREA...BUT RELATIVELY DRY MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT MAY CONTRIBUTE TO POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS. ...UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... AREA OF STRONGER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF DIGGING JET STREAK WILL CONTRIBUTE TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON FROM PARTS OF THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. ALTHOUGH SURFACE DEW POINTS MAY ONLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S INTO LOWER 50S...COLD THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES AND FAVORABLY SHEARED FLOW REGIME MAY BE SUPPORTIVE OF HAIL/GUSTY WINDS IN STRONGER STORMS. ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP EASTWARD INTO PARTS OF WISCONSIN BEFORE WEAKENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING DURING THE EVENING HOURS. ..KERR.. 06/21/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 22 17:38:59 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 22 Jun 2004 12:38:59 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200406221739.i5MHdR224242@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 221737 SWODY2 SPC AC 221736 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1236 PM CDT TUE JUN 22 2004 VALID 231200Z - 241200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE ILM 25 WNW FLO ATL GAD HSV CSV 30 SW SHD 20 E SBY. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ALO LSE OSH MBL 35 SSW HTL JXN SBN 35 SE MMO PIA IRK 10 ENE LWD DSM ALO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NW GGW P24 JMS AXN MSP GRB 10 NNE APN 155 E APN ...CONT... 30 NE PBG BFD 20 WNW MIE 35 NNW STL CNK RSL GAG 10 SE SPS ARG LEX MRB 10 E NEL ...CONT... 80 SSW GBN 10 NW BLH PMD NID DRA 50 SW SGU 10 WNW GCN GUP 4SL 35 NNW ALS 35 SSE LND 35 SSE WEY 25 W 27U 55 S BKE 45 ENE 4LW 30 WSW SVE 45 NW RBL 25 WNW MFR 35 SSE SLE 30 SSE OLM 25 NNW BLI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE TN VLY/SRN APPALACHIANS/SRN MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MS VLY/GREAT LAKES REGION.... MODELS SUGGEST LITTLE CHANGE TO BLOCKED UPPER FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THIS INCLUDES DEEP CLOSED UPPER LOW WHICH WILL REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL CANADIAN PROVINCES...WITH BROAD CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW REGIME OVER MUCH OF THE U.S. EAST OF THE ROCKIES...NORTH OF THE NORTHERN GULF STATES. ...TEXAS THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SRN MID ATLANTIC COAST... INITIAL WEAK FRONTAL ZONE/WIND SHIFT APPEARS LIKELY TO EXTEND FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE INTO EAST TEXAS EARLY WEDNESDAY. BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO SHIFT ONLY SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD...MOSTLY IN RESPONSE TO EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF LOWER/MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH ON SOUTHERN FRINGE OF STRONGER WESTERLIES. 700-500 MB WAVE OVER ARKANSAS AT 23/12Z IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...BEFORE CONTINUING INTO SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. RELATIVELY MOIST MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST...BUT WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS AT OR ABOVE 70F...MEAN MIXED LAYER OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG STILL APPEARS LIKELY. THIS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS PRIMARILY WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. HOWEVER... DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW FIELD AHEAD OF MID-LEVEL TROUGH...AND IN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF HIGH-LEVEL JET...COULD CONTRIBUTE TO EVOLUTION OF CONVECTIVE CLUSTER. BELT OF 30 TO 40 KT MEAN FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE WILL ENHANCE STORM MOTION...AND SUPPORT THREAT FOR STRONG...POTENTIALLY DAMAGING...WIND GUSTS. BEST CHANCE FOR THIS APPEARS TO BE DURING THE AFTERNOON PEAK HEATING HOURS INTO EARLY EVENING...FROM PARTS OF MID/EASTERN TENNESSEE AND NORTHERN ALABAMA INTO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. ...NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO GREAT LAKES REGION.... MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP CLOSED LOW IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL U.S. DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ROTATING AROUND BROADER CENTRAL CANADIAN CIRCULATION WILL DIG ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S. PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PRIMARY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ON NOSE OF PRE-FRONTAL THERMAL RIDGE FROM EASTERN IOWA INTO SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN...WHERE INSTABILITY/FORCING WILL BECOME MAXIMIZED IN RESPONSE TO STRONGER LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME. ALTHOUGH AREA WILL BE CUT OFF FROM MOIST GULF COAST STATES BOUNDARY LAYER...MOISTURE CURRENTLY IN PLACE...ENHANCED BY EVAPOTRANSPIRATION...SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. LAPSE RATES BENEATH COLD MID-LEVEL AIR MASS WILL BE STEEP...AND WITH SURFACE HEATING...MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE LIKELY WILL EXCEED 1000 J/KG. GIVEN STRONG AND FAVORABLY SHEARED CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME...A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED. ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP AS EARLY AS MID DAY OVER PARTS OF WISCONSIN/EASTERN IOWA/NORTHERN ILLINOIS...THEN GRADUALLY SPREAD EASTWARD/SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS..BEFORE WEAKENING AFTER DARK ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY EVENING. OTHER MUCH MORE WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG/ AHEAD OF FRONTAL ZONE WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MONTANA. BEST COVERAGE MAY BE IN THE LEE OF THE MONTANA ROCKIES...WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME WILL ENHANCE FORCING FOR ACTIVITY. ...SOUTHERN PLATEAU... MODELS APPEAR TO SUGGEST BETTER FORCING FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...SOUTH OF UPPER RIDGE AXIS. FLOW FIELDS ARE PROGGED TO BE QUITE WEAK...BUT SEEM FAVORABLE FOR SLOW PROPAGATION OFF THE MOUNTAINS...ACROSS THE TUCSON AREA...WHERE DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED MICRO BURSTS. ..KERR.. 06/22/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 23 07:34:19 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 23 Jun 2004 02:34:19 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200406230734.i5N7Yl211403@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 230732 SWODY2 SPC AC 230730 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0230 AM CDT WED JUN 23 2004 VALID 241200Z - 251200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 N BML 25 WNW EEN 40 NW CXY 45 WSW UNI 15 SSW MVN 15 ENE ICT 45 WSW CSM 20 W DHT 25 E PUB 40 WNW 4FC 45 SW CPR 50 ENE DGW 20 NNW LBF 20 NE LNK 30 SSE CID 20 WSW GRR 45 SE OSC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NE CTB 75 E LWT 30 N 81V 15 NW VTN 25 SSE SPW 20 ESE LNR 10 WNW MBL 55 ESE ANJ ...CONT... 20 NE BOS 40 SW ABE 15 E HTS 15 SSE MDH 40 ESE ICT 65 SE CDS 35 NW JCT SAT 15 E CLL 40 SW TXK 55 E LIT 50 S BNA 10 SW GSP 15 SSW CRE ...CONT... 45 SE YUM 15 S LAS 20 NE P38 25 E BCE 25 NNE INW 75 NE SAD 35 NW 4CR 45 NNW LVS 50 S GUC 45 NW PUC 30 SSW ENV 40 WNW OWY 50 ESE 4LW 45 NW SVE 35 NW RBL 20 E CEC 10 NNW EUG 20 SW SEA 15 NNW BLI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL HI PLNS THROUGH THE MID MS VLY TO THE LWR GRT LKS... ...SYNOPSIS... BAFFIN ISLAND BLOCK WILL CONTINUE TO RETROGRESS W ACROSS NRN CANADA ON THURSDAY...RESULTING IN FURTHER AMPLIFICATION OF PERSISTENT RIDGE OVER THE WRN PART OF THAT COUNTRY. THIS WILL KEEP DEEP CLOSED LOW FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER JAMES BAY THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND WILL MAINTAIN FAST CYCLONIC FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE NRN AND ERN U.S. AT LOWER LEVELS...COLD FRONT MARKING WRN/SRN FRINGE OF JAMES BAY SYSTEM WILL DROP S/SE ACROSS THE UPR MS VLY/UPR GRT LKS TODAY. THE BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE S/SE ACROSS THE CNTRL PLNS AND MID MS /OH VLYS ON THURSDAY AS UPPER IMPULSE NOW OVER MANITOBA DROPS SE ACROSS THE UPR GRT LKS. FARTHER S...MUCH WEAKER SRN STREAM JET WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL FROM THE WRN GULF CST ACROSS THE SERN STATES INTO THE WRN ATLANTIC. ...LWR MO/MID MS VLY THROUGH OH VLY TO NRN APLCNS... A STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE MCS WILL LIKELY BE ON-GOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD FROM ERN NEB/IA/SRN MN INTO SRN WI/NRN IL...IN ZONE OF STRONGEST LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ALONG COLD FRONT DOWNSTREAM FROM MANITOBA/MN UPPER IMPULSE. THESE STORMS SHOULD STRENGTHEN AND MOVE/DEVELOP EWD ALONG COLD FRONT LATER IN THE DAY AS SURFACE HEATING AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INFLOW FURTHER DESTABILIZE REGION FROM IL/IND EWD INTO OH/SRN MI. FAIRLY STEEP /AOA 7 DEG C PER KM/ LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 40+ KT UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP WLY SHEAR SHOULD FOSTER DEVELOPMENT OF FORWARD-PROPAGATING BOWS WITH HIGH WIND AND POSSIBLY HAIL. THIS ACTIVITY MAY SPREAD E INTO WRN PA/NY BY EVENING AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND MODEST BUT SUSTAINED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INFLOW OFFSET STABILIZING EFFECTS OF DIURNAL COOLING. ...CNTRL PLNS... FARTHER SW...SURFACE HEATING AND EXISTING ORIENTATION OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AXIS SUGGEST THAT STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH MORNING MCS WILL ALSO DEVELOP SWWD WITH TIME ALONG COLD FRONT INTO SRN NEB/KS AND NW MO. STRONG HEATING WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S SHOULD BOOST AFTERNOON MLCAPE TO NEAR 2000 J/KG. COUPLED WITH MODERATE /30 KT/ DEEP WNW TO NWLY SHEAR...SETUP SHOULD PROVE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS/SUPERCELL CLUSTERS WITH LARGE HAIL/HIGH WIND AND PERHAPS A COUPLE TORNADOES. DIURNAL STRENGTHENING OF SLY LOW LEVEL JET MAY ALLOW THIS ACTIVITY TO CONSOLIDATE INTO A MCS THAT DROPS S INTO SRN KS/NW OK THURSDAY NIGHT. ...NRN GRT BASIN INTO NRN/CNTRL HI PLNS... SCATTERED STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH DAYTIME HEATING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NRN RCKYS/INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. OTHER STORMS MAY FORM IN POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS PARTS OF WY AND CO. MOISTURE WILL BE QUITE LIMITED IN THE NRN RCKYS/ INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. BUT DEEP MIXED ENVIRONMENT AND MODERATE UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW MAY SUPPORT SHORT LINES OF STORMS WITH HIGH WIND. SOMEWHAT GREATER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT IN WY/CO...WHERE STRONG DIRECTIONAL COMPONENT TO WIND PROFILES MAY SUPPORT A COUPLE SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO. ...GULF CST/LWR MS VLY... A FEW CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO OCCASIONALLY SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS LA/AR/MS AND AL THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BENEATH SRN STREAM JET. POSSIBLE EMBEDDED MCV CIRCULATIONS MAY SUFFICIENTLY ENHANCE DEEP SHEAR TO SUPPORT A FEW SUSTAINED CELLS WITH HIGH WIND AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO. ..CORFIDI.. 06/23/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 23 17:42:20 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 23 Jun 2004 12:42:20 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200406231742.i5NHgj229247@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 231739 SWODY2 SPC AC 231738 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1238 PM CDT WED JUN 23 2004 VALID 241200Z - 251200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 N BML 10 N ALB AVP ZZV BMG BLV ICT GAG 15 ENE AMA 45 N TCC RTN PUB DEN CYS BFF 10 E IML BIE LWD BRL SBN 45 NNE MTC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NE CTB 75 E LWT 81V CDR MHN OLU DSM MLI BEH 50 SE OSC ...CONT... 10 NE BOS 35 SSW POU 10 N ILG WAL ...CONT... 40 S HUL 35 SE AUG ...CONT... 45 SE YUM DAG NID TPH BAM WMC SVE RBL 20 E CEC EUG 20 SW SEA 15 NNW BLI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CSV HTS 35 SSE LUK MDH 10 E SGF PNC END LTS 55 ESE LBB 35 WSW SJT SAT GGG PBF 10 SE MEM CSV. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THURSDAY ACROSS THE LWR GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY INTO THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES.... BLOCKED UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...MODELS DO SUGGEST LARGE...DEEP CENTRAL CANADIAN CLOSED LOW WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP EASTWARD ACROSS ONTARIO. THIS IS PROGGED TO OCCUR AS MOST PROMINENT EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE/JET STREAK ROTATES AROUND ITS SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY...ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...INTO QUEBEC THURSDAY NIGHT. IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM...A RATHER SHARP SURFACE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP AND SURGE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL STATES BY EARLY THURSDAY...BEFORE CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS... AND NORTHEASTERN STATES. ...FRONT RANGE/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO LOWER GREAT LAKES... VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY SURFACE DEW POINTS AROUND 70F APPEARS LIKELY TO REMAIN CONFINED TO GULF/MID AND SOUTH ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER...GIVEN MOISTURE CURRENTLY IN PLACE NORTH OF LINGERING SOUTHERN SURFACE BOUNDARY...DEW POINTS SHOULD REACH THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S ALONG/AHEAD OF STRONG COLD FRONT. THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR DESTABILIZATION SUPPORTIVE OF VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS STRONG SURFACE HEATING OCCURS IN PRE-FRONTAL THERMAL RIDGE. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST NARROW CORRIDOR OF MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG IS POSSIBLE NEAR FRONT BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WHEN BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM THE LEE OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH CENTRAL ILLINOIS/INDIANA... NORTHERN MISSOURI...AND CENTRAL KANSAS...INTO THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE REGION. STRONGEST FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION APPEARS LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION...ENHANCED BY TAIL END OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THIS IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT EVOLUTION OF NARROW SQUALL LINE IN FAVORABLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT ON SOUTHERN FRINGE OF STRONGER WESTERLIES. STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AS LINE SLOWLY ADVANCES SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. GIVEN RELATIVE DRYNESS OF BOUNDARY LAYER...SURFACE COOLING MAY OCCUR FAIRLY QUICKLY...WHICH MAY LIMIT DURATION OF SEVERE THREAT AFTER SUNSET. OTHER MORE WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG FRONT WESTWARD INTO THE PLAINS. BEST LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND SHEAR PROFILES WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER APPEAR LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN SOUTHWEST/NORTHEAST BAND ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS...WHERE AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL OR TWO IS POSSIBLE DURING THE 25/00-03Z TIME FRAME. BENEATH NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW...ADDITIONAL WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN UPSLOPE LOW-LEVEL FLOW REGIME CLOSE TO THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES. ...CENTRAL GULF STATES... MODELS SUGGEST MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH/BELT OF STRONGER FLOW WILL LIFT OUT OF BROAD TROUGH IN SUBTROPICAL BRANCH OF THE WESTERLIES OVER THE MEXICAN PLATEAU/WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS FEATURE IS PROGGED TO SHIFT ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA/CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI/NORTHERN ALABAMA DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS...AND MAY ENHANCE RISK OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...PERHAPS ISOLATED TORNADOES...IN MOIST TROPICAL AIR MASS. ..KERR.. 06/23/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 24 07:42:05 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 24 Jun 2004 02:42:05 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200406240742.i5O7gX206962@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 240740 SWODY2 SPC AC 240739 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0239 AM CDT THU JUN 24 2004 VALID 251200Z - 261200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ELP 35 N 4CR 20 NW RTN 35 WNW COS RWL 10 NNE BPI 30 N JAC 15 NW COD 40 NNW DGW 30 NW MHN 30 NNE HLC 35 SE DDC 15 SSE AMA 30 WNW BGS 15 NNW DRT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE CRE 45 N CAE 30 W HKY SSU 35 E AOO 20 NNW POU 10 SSE PSM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SW TUS 30 NNE GBN 25 SW FLG 55 NW GUP 35 S CNY 40 ESE DPG 40 N BAM 35 WNW SVE 45 ENE ACV 50 ESE OTH 30 SE PDX 50 SE SEA 60 E BLI ...CONT... 40 ENE CTB 40 E BIL 15 ESE 81V 10 NNW ANW 20 ESE HSI 25 NW EMP 35 ENE CNU 20 WSW UMN 15 ESE MKO 35 W TXK 40 E ELD 40 WNW MSL 35 SE SDF 20 SW FKL 35 SSE UCA 20 NW MWN 25 NE CAR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 160 E APN 35 SSW OSC 20 WSW OSH 30 NNW MSP 20 SSE HIB 60 ENE ELO. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NC AND THE MID ATLANTIC STATES INTO SRN NEW ECG... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE CNTRL AND SRN HI PLNS... ...SYNOPSIS... DEEP VORTEX NEAR JAMES BAY WILL MAINTAIN FAST CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE NRN AND ERN U.S. THIS PERIOD AS THE SYSTEM EDGES SLOWLY E INTO QUEBEC. A SERIES OF LOW AMPLITUDE IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND WRN AND SRN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW WILL GLANCE THE UPR MS VLY AND GRT LKS REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH BLOCK OVER NRN CANADA CONTINUING TO RETROGRESS W AND STRENGTHEN EXISTING RIDGE OVER YUKON...THERE WILL LIKELY BE INCREASED WLY FLOW OVER THE NRN GRT BASIN/PACIFIC NW. ELSEWHERE...WEAKER SRN STREAM JET WITH EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES EXPECTED TO PERSIST FROM THE CNTRL GULF CST TO THE CAROLINA CST. FARTHER W...WEAK WLYS AND SLIGHT RIDGING OVER AZ SHOULD RESULT IN DEVELOPMENT OF A DIFFUSE UPPER LOW OVER THE SRN PLNS. ...NC/MID ATLANTIC STATES TO SRN NEW ENG... COLD FRONT WHICH WILL CROSS THE GRT LKS/OH VLY LATER TODAY WILL CONTINUE E/SE ACROSS NEW ENG AND THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ON FRIDAY. THE FRONT SHOULD DECELERATE AND SLOWLY WEAKEN WITH TIME AS MAIN SUPPORTING IMPULSE CONTINUES NEWD INTO CANADA...AND BOUNDARY BECOMES PARALLEL TO DEEP WSWLY MEAN FLOW. THE FRONT WILL...NEVERTHELESS...LIKELY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR DIURNAL-ENHANCED STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER PA/SERN NY AND SRN NEW ENGLAND. LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE MODEST /AROUND 6.5 TO 7.0 DEG C PER KM/...AND CLOUDS MAY LIMIT SURFACE HEATING...ESPECIALLY IN NEW ENG. BUT COMBINED WITH 40-50 KT DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL WSWLY SHEAR AND SUSTAINED CONVERGENCE...SETUP SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW BANDS/CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AND POSSIBLY A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH HIGH WIND AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. FARTHER S...THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT TO VARYING DEGREES REGARDING EVOLUTION OF A WEAK SURFACE WAVE E OF THE NC MOUNTAINS IN RESPONSE TO FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH IMPULSES IN SRN STREAM JET. LAPSE RATES OVER REGION WILL REMAIN WEAK...ESPECIALLY AT MID LEVELS. BUT CONVERGENCE INVOF OF THE WAVE...COUPLED WITH RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE INFLOW AND SLIGHTLY BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW...SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THE MAIN THREATS POSED WOULD BE LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. ...CNTRL/SRN HI PLNS... PATTERN OF WEAK/LARGELY UNFOCUSED UPSLOPE FLOW AND INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHOULD PROVE FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED DIURNALLY-ENHANCED STORMS ALONG AND JUST E OF THE RCKYS FROM CNTRL/ERN WY SWD INTO NM/W TX. THE GREATEST SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY /MLCAPE TO 1500 J PER KG/ SHOULD DEVELOP IN PARTS OF W TX/NM...WHILE THE STRONGEST DEEP SHEAR /WITH VALUES APPROACHING 40 KT/ WILL LIKELY EXIST IN ERN WY/ERN CO. OVERALL SETUP EXPECTED TO YIELD SCATTERED SUSTAINED STORMS AND A FEW SUPERCELLS IN CO/WY...WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL/HIGH WIND AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE TORNADOES. MAINLY MULTICELL CLUSTERS APPEAR MORE LIKELY FARTHER S. THE ACTIVITY IN WY/CO MAY CONSOLIDATE INTO AN MCS THAT CONTINUES SE INTO WRN NEB/WRN KS WITH A HAIL/WIND THREAT FRIDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...THE NM/TX STORMS MAY CONSOLIDATE INTO A SWD-MOVING MCS WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND. ...ELSEHWERE... WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NRN GRT BASIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WHERE INCREASED WLY FLOW ALOFT AND STRONG SURFACE HEATING MAY CONTRIBUTE TO A FEW SUSTAINED CELLS. ALONG THE CNTRL GULF CST...A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY DEVELOP DOWNWIND OF MCV-TYPE CIRCULATIONS LEFT OVER FROM DAY ONE CONVECTION. ..CORFIDI.. 06/24/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 24 17:29:25 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 24 Jun 2004 12:29:25 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200406241729.i5OHTk205462@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 241728 SWODY2 SPC AC 241727 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1227 PM CDT THU JUN 24 2004 VALID 251200Z - 261200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE CRE CLT 35 E ANB SEM MSY 25 SE 7R4 10 WNW HEZ MSL CSV 20 E LOZ 10 ENE CRW EKN AOO IPT BGM 30 WNW ALB 35 SE GFL 20 NNE BAF 30 ENE POU 10 NW JFK. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 W MRF CNM LVS TAD COS CYS LAR RWL 50 NW CPR 50 NNE CPR 10 NE DGW CDR MHN 10 SSE LBF MCK GLD 30 WNW BGS 15 NNW DRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SW TUS 30 NNE GBN 35 SW PRC IGM P38 TPH 45 S TVL RBL 45 ENE ACV 50 ESE OTH 30 SE PDX 50 SE SEA 60 E BLI ...CONT... 40 ENE CTB 40 E BIL 15 ESE 81V VTN EAR ICT 35 ENE CNU VIH BLV ZZV UCA 20 NW MWN 25 NE CAR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 160 E APN 35 SSW OSC 20 WSW OSH 30 NNW MSP 20 SSE HIB 60 ENE ELO. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FRIDAY FROM PARTS OF THE CNTRL GULF STATES INTO THE CNTRL/SRN APPALACHIANS AND NRN/MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FRIDAY ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS.... MODELS SUGGEST LITTLE CHANGE TO BLOCKED UPPER FLOW REGIME THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD...WITH HIGHER HEIGHTS CENTERED OVER THE CANADIAN NORTHWEST TERRITORIES AND CLOSED LOWS/LOWER HEIGHTS CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND EASTERN CANADIAN PROVINCES. BROAD TROUGHING WILL PERSIST IN SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.S./MEXICAN PLATEAU AND WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WITH A BELT OF STRONGER LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW EXTENDING EAST OF TROUGH AXIS...AROUND SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF STATES AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO MID ATLANTIC COAST. ...EAST OF MISSISSIPPI RIVER.... MOST SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE/JET STREAK EMBEDDED WITHIN EASTERN CANADIAN CIRCULATION APPEARS LIKELY TO BE LIFTING RAPIDLY ACROSS QUEBEC BY EARLY FRIDAY. ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SURGE INTO NEW ENGLAND AND THE OHIO VALLEY BEFORE STALLING AND WEAKENING...AS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REMAINS STRONG ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND WESTERN ATLANTIC. BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN WARM AND VERY MOIST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN/EASTERN U.S...WITH 70F+ DEW POINTS PREVALENT ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES/TENNESSEE VALLEY AND MID/ SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES. DESPITE RELATIVELY WARM/MOIST MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK LAPSE RATES...AND LIKELIHOOD OF CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER...MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG IS EXPECTED WITH AT LEAST SOME HEATING. SIMILAR CAPE VALUES ARE ALSO EXPECTED ALONG FRONT FARTHER NORTH...FROM PENNSYLVANIA INTO PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND...WHERE SURFACE DEW POINTS MAY ONLY REACH THE MID/UPPER 60S...BUT MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE A BIT STEEPER. MODELS SUGGEST NEXT SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN NORTHERN TROUGH WILL BE SLOW TO PROGRESS EASTWARD...AND MAY NOT REACH THE OHIO VALLEY UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...A MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE/JET STREAK IS PROGGED TO MIGRATE OUT OF SOUTHERN TROUGH...ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY MID DAY...INTO THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...AND DIFLUENT/DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW FIELD DOWNSTREAM OF NORTHERN SHORT WAVE...PERHAPS ENHANCED BY RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF HIGH LEVEL JET ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES/ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...SHOULD PROVE SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. FORCING ALONG FRONT APPEARS LIKELY TO BECOME MAXIMIZED BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...WHERE CLUSTER OF STORMS APPEARS POSSIBLE. MODERATE TO STRONG WESTERLY MID/UPPER FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG SHEAR PROFILES SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD TOWARD NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS BEFORE WEAKENING DURING THE EVENING HOURS. ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED OFF THE LEE SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WITH APPROACH OF SOUTHERN SHORT WAVE TROUGH. DEVELOPING LOW IN LEE SURFACE TROUGH MAY EVENTUALLY BECOME FOCUS FOR ACTIVITY BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE MOIST/TROPICAL IN NATURE ACROSS MUCH OF VIRGINIA/NORTH CAROLINA...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE A THREAT...PARTICULARLY AS SOUTH/ SOUTHWESTERLY LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW STRENGTHENS LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY FRIDAY EVENING. ...WESTERN AND CENTRAL STATES... GENERAL INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY APPEARS LIKELY FRIDAY BENEATH UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...AND OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE LEE OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. WHILE LARGE-SCALE FORCING WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...WARM/ UNSTABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT. BEST POTENTIAL FOR HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS APPEARS TO EXIST IN UPSLOPE REGIME OFF THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES...WHERE SHEAR PROFILES BENEATH NORTHWESTERLY MID/ UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED SUPERCELLS, ..KERR.. 06/24/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 25 07:05:32 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 25 Jun 2004 02:05:32 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200406250705.i5P75p213157@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 250703 SWODY2 SPC AC 250702 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0202 AM CDT FRI JUN 25 2004 VALID 261200Z - 271200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSW RTN 20 S PUB 10 NNW DEN 20 W AKO 50 WNW GLD 55 NW GCK 10 WSW LBL 30 NW AMA 10 N TCC 40 SSW RTN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE FHU 45 WSW SOW 50 NW GCN 50 NE TPH 25 N BIH 30 NE MER 55 NNW SAC 50 ESE CEC 45 NW DLS 25 NE BLI ...CONT... 55 N FCA 40 SE LWT 20 SSE CDR 10 NNE MHN 30 SE RWF 35 NNW LSE 30 NE MSN 10 SE JVL 40 E MLI 15 N BRL 45 W LWD 40 NE MHK 15 SSW EMP 10 NE BVO 25 ESE PGO 40 ENE PBF 35 ESE MKL 10 WNW 5I3 10 S DCA 20 NNE JFK 15 NE PWM 25 NNE CAR. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.... ...SYNOPSIS... THE DEEP LOW INVOF JAMES BAY WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EWD AS AN EMBEDDED SPEED MAX MOVES NEWD FROM NEW ENGLAND TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES EARLY IN THE PERIOD. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SPEED MAX...A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EWD OFF THE NEW ENGLAND AND MID ATLANTIC COASTS DURING THE DAY...WHILE THE WRN EXTENT OF THE BOUNDARY SAGS SEWD ACROSS THE INTERIOR CAROLINAS AND SWD INTO THE NRN GULF COAST STATES. FARTHER W...THE SRN FRINGE OF THE STRONGER MID LEVEL NWLYS WILL PERSIST FROM MT TO THE MID MS VALLEY...WITH A LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE REGIME ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES FROM NM TO MT. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE GREATEST ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY WHERE A WEAK SRN STREAM TROUGH INTERACTS WITH A DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME...ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES...AND ACROSS THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. ...ERN CO/WRN KS/NE NM/NRN TX PANHANDLE AREA... AN INVERTED TROUGH/WEAK LEE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE E CENTRAL/SE CO AREA DURING THE DAY AND PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR STORM INITIATION. WEAK LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW AND DAYTIME HEATING ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL ALSO AID IN CONVECTIVE INITIATION AS BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S SPREAD NWWD INTO ERN CO FROM DAY 1 INTO DAY 2. EXPECT MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG/ TO DEVELOP OVER ERN CO/WRN KS DURING THE DAY...IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF RELATIVELY WEAK ABSOLUTE WIND SPEEDS BUT ROUGHLY 150-180 DEGREES OF VEERING FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH THE MID LEVELS. THE NET RESULT WILL BE A SUFFICIENT COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR TO SUPPORT AT LEAST A MARGINAL SUPERCELL THREAT...AS WELL AS MULTICELL STORM CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY SPREAD SWD TOWARD THE NW TX PANHANDLE AND NE NM FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...POSSIBLY AIDED BY A NOCTURNAL SLY LLJ ACROSS W TX. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY THIS AREA WILL BE THE IMPACTS OF ANY CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS FROM LATE DAY 1 INTO EARLY DAY 2...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW TO STABILIZE THE PLAINS AND FORCE THE THREAT AREA TO REMAIN ADJACENT TO THE FRONT RANGE. ...ERN WA/ORE TO ID AND EXTREME WRN MT... STRONG SURFACE HEATING IS EXPECTED BENEATH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. GRADUAL ACCUMULATION OF MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SBCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG. THOUGH DEEP LAYER WIND PROFILES WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK WITHIN THE MID LEVEL RIDGE...INSTABILITY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STORMS WITH STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS AND ISOLATED HAIL FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. ..THOMPSON.. 06/25/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 25 17:39:09 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 25 Jun 2004 12:39:09 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200406251739.i5PHdRg29752@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 251704 SWODY2 SPC AC 251703 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1203 PM CDT FRI JUN 25 2004 VALID 261200Z - 271200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSW RTN 20 S PUB 10 NNW DEN 20 W AKO 50 WNW GLD 55 NW GCK 10 WSW LBL 30 NW AMA 10 N TCC 40 SSW RTN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW FHU 25 SSW SOW 50 NW GCN 50 NE TPH 25 N BIH 30 NE MER 55 NNW SAC 50 ESE CEC 45 NW DLS 25 NE BLI ...CONT... 55 N FCA 35 ENE 3HT 60 SSE 81V 25 WSW PHP 25 NW ABR 50 NW AXN 35 SSW EAU 30 NE MSN 10 SE JVL 40 E MLI 15 N BRL 45 W LWD 40 NE MHK 15 SSW EMP 10 NE BVO 25 ESE PGO 40 ENE PBF 35 ESE MKL 10 WNW 5I3 10 S DCA 20 NNE JFK 15 NE PWM 25 NNE CAR. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... JAMES BAY UPPER CYCLONE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS THE ERN TWO THIRDS OF NOAM INTO THE WEEKEND. A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL TRANSLATE NEWD OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. UPSTREAM...AN OMEGA BLOCK WILL PERSIST WITH A RIDGE REMAINING STRONG ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. DISTURBANCES...EMANATING FROM AN UPSTREAM UPPER LOW OVER THE N PAC BASIN...WILL TOP THE RIDGE IN THE PAC NW AND NRN ROCKIES THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE...STABLE CP AIR MASS SPREADING SEWD IN WAKE OF THE NEW ENGLAND DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE AS FAR SOUTH AS PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS AND THE MID-SOUTH. TAIL END OF THE FRONT WILL BEGIN REDEVELOPING NWD AS A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE SRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY. THIS FRONT...AND OTHER BOUNDARIES SITUATED ALONG THE GULF COAST...WILL BE THE IMPETUS FOR TSTMS INTO THE WEEKEND. ...CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS... WEAK ESELY UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD AID IN GRADUAL MOISTENING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER IN THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS TODAY AND SATURDAY. SURFACE DEW POINTS SHOULD BE IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES F SATURDAY AFTERNOON BENEATH STEEP MID-TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES. THERMODYNAMIC SETUP SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR TSTMS TO INITIATE ALONG THE NM/CO HIGHER TERRAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON HOW FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY TSTMS WILL ALTER THE AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION. PRIND THAT GIVEN SUFFICIENT RECOVERY... TSTMS COULD ALSO INITIATE VCNTY SURFACE LEE LOW OVER SERN CO AND FAVORED TERRAIN FEATURES AS WELL...AIDED BY WEAK UPPER SUPPORT ASSOCIATED WITH NWLY FLOW MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THOUGH THE MIDLEVEL FLOW WILL GENERALLY BE 30 KTS OR LESS... DIRECTIONAL/VERTICAL SHEAR WILL LIKELY BE MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS. QUICK EVOLUTION INTO MULTICELL LINE SEGMENTS/MCS IS LIKELY TO OCCUR DURING THE EVENING WITH PROPAGATION VECTORS FAVORING A SSEWD MOVEMENT INTO THE ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS OF NM...SWRN KS AND TX/OK PNHDLS AS THE SLY LLJ DIURNALLY INCREASES. ...INTERMOUNTAIN WEST... RECYCLED MOISTURE OWING TO DIURNAL TSTM CLUSTERS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING TSTM PROBABILITIES ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THIS WEEKEND...BENEATH THE MIDLEVEL RIDGE. THOUGH THE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE RATHER WEAK...PULSE SEVERE TSTMS GIVING SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE LIKELY GIVEN LARGE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS AT THE SURFACE. HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR TSTMS WILL LIKELY OCCUR OVER ERN PARTS OF WA/ORE...JUST EAST OF AN ANTICIPATED MARINE PUSH. ..RACY.. 06/25/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 26 07:36:55 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 26 Jun 2004 02:36:55 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200406260737.i5Q7bBg17690@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 260732 SWODY2 SPC AC 260730 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0230 AM CDT SAT JUN 26 2004 VALID 271200Z - 281200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NNE FCA 45 W LWT 50 SE BIL 55 WNW CDR 35 NNW MHN 15 ENE ANW 25 SSW MHE BKX 20 W MSP 35 SE CWA 20 ENE MTW 25 ESE MBS 20 WNW ERI 30 NNW PIT 15 SSE DNV 35 W COU 20 NNW SGF 15 SSW UNO 20 ENE CKV 25 W TRI 20 W RDU 20 SSE EWN ...CONT... 70 SW TUS 35 SSW GCN 20 N SGU 35 S ELY 20 S U31 65 WNW BIH 40 N MER 40 N SAC 30 WSW MHS 30 ENE MFR 55 ESE DLS 10 S EAT 65 E BLI. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... 00Z MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN EVOLUTION. A DEEP MID LEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EWD FROM THE JAMES BAY AREA...WHILE A BELT OF CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THIS LOW FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. FARTHER S...A PERSISTENT SRN STREAM TROUGH OVER TX WILL BEGIN TO EJECT ENEWD TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY LATE IN THE PERIOD AS THE RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES STARTS TO BUILD EWD TOWARD THE HIGH PLAINS. IN THE WEST...A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH INVOF OF CA THIS MORNING WILL DRIFT INLAND OVER THE GREAT BASIN...WHILE A STRONGER TROUGH NOW JUST OFF THE WA/ORE COASTS LIFTS NEWD TO BRITISH COLUMBIA AND WEAKENS. SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE ROCKIES WITHIN A PLUME OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND IN CONJUNCTION WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES. THE STRONGER STORMS SHOULD OCCUR INVOF ID WHERE SEVERAL DAYS OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL AGAIN SUPPORT MODERATE INSTABILITY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW DOWNBURSTS AND ISOLATED HAIL. HOWEVER...RELATIVELY WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR WILL LIMIT THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT. ISOLATED STRONG STORMS MAY ALSO OCCUR ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES FROM CO TO NM IN ASSOCIATION WITH WEAK MID LEVEL NWLY FLOW/LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW...THOUGH THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE TEMPERED BY AT BEST MODERATE INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL VERTICAL SHEAR. FINALLY...A MOIST/TROPICAL AIR MASS WILL ACCOMPANY THE MID LEVEL TROUGH EJECTING ENEWD TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THOUGH LAPSE RATES WILL BE POOR OVER THIS AREA...30-40 KT LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW MAY SUPPORT AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM OR TWO WITHIN THE LARGER CONVECTIVE CLUSTER. ..THOMPSON.. 06/26/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 26 17:37:29 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 26 Jun 2004 12:37:29 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200406261737.i5QHbkg08223@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 261735 SWODY2 SPC AC 261734 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1234 PM CDT SAT JUN 26 2004 VALID 271200Z - 281200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NNE FCA 45 W LWT 50 SE BIL 60 ENE DGW 40 WSW VTN 15 WSW 9V9 20 WSW ATY 30 NW MSP 45 W CWA 35 W GRB 20 ENE MTW 25 ESE MBS 20 WNW ERI 30 NNW PIT 15 SSE DNV 35 W COU 20 NNW SGF 15 SSW UNO 20 ENE CKV 25 W TRI 20 W RDU 20 SSE EWN ...CONT... 15 SSE FHU 25 ESE TUS 60 NNE TUS 45 SSW GCN 20 N SGU 35 S ELY 20 S U31 65 WNW BIH 40 N MER 40 N SAC 30 WSW MHS 30 ENE MFR 55 ESE DLS 10 S EAT 65 E BLI. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... PERSISTENT JAMES BAY CYCLONE WILL BEGIN TO EDGE EWD LATER THIS WEEKEND. UPPER WAVE...NOW OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES...WILL ROTATE AROUND THIS FEATURE...REACHING THE UPPER MS VLY AND UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...LOWER AMPLITUDE UPPER LOW OVER TX WILL EJECT ENEWD TOWARD THE LOWER MS VLY AS THE NRN STREAM SYSTEM DIGS SEWD. UPSTREAM...PART OF THE UPPER LOW SITUATED OFF THE PAC NW COAST WILL DROP SLOWLY SEWD TOWARD THE GREAT BASIN TODAY AND SUNDAY. BUT...THE UPPER RIDGE NOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND ROCKIES SHOULD REMAIN FIRMLY ENTRENCHED WITH ONLY WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TOPPING THE RIDGE ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE...FRONT SETTLING SWD WILL STALL FROM THE CAROLINAS TO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS TODAY...ONLY TO REDEVELOP NWD THROUGH THE PLAINS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. A NEW FRONT...MOVING SWD IN THE WAKE OF THE CANADIAN IMPULSE...WILL MOVE SWD INTO THE UPPER MS VLY AND CNTRL PLAINS BY SUNDAY NIGHT. ...CNTRL GULF COASTAL AREA... WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD IN A ZONE OF PERSISTENT WARM ADVECTION REGIME FROM THE UPPER TX COAST INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. AS THE TX UPPER LOW EJECTS NEWD...BELT OF MODEST MIDLEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF COASTAL AREA DURING PEAK HEATING. TSTMS MAY INTENSIFY ALONG SERN EDGE OF ONGOING CONVECTION AND GIVEN THE UNIDIRECTIONAL SWLY FLOW REGIME...TSTMS MAY TEND TO DEVELOP BOWING LINE SEGMENTS GIVING ISOLD WIND DAMAGE. MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE THE THREAT OF WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND WEAK MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES. ...MID MO VLY TO THE CORN BELT... STRONG DCVA WILL SPREAD SEWD ACROSS THE MID MO VLY AND CORN BELT AHEAD OF THE CANADIAN IMPULSE DURING PEAK HEATING. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND BY AFTERNOON...MLCAPE VALUES WILL BE 500-1000 J/KG JUST AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. WHILE INSTABILITY WILL BE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL...MODEST WLY FLOW ALOFT MAY BRIEFLY ORGANIZE TSTMS INTO LINE SEGMENTS WITH POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. IF INSTABILITY IS HIGHER THAN FORECAST...REGION MAY BE UPGRADED TO A CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS. ...CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS... SELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN MODEST SURFACE DEW POINTS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY. TSTMS THAT DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAY SURVIVE ONTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS DURING THE EVENING. VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN WEAK AND TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE MAINLY MULTICELLS WITH ISOLD THREATS OF HAIL OR SEVERE WIND GUSTS. ...NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST... BOUNDARY LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN OWING TO RECYCLED MOISTURE FROM DAILY TSTM CYCLES. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO ENHANCED INSTABILITY VALUES BENEATH UPPER RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE REGION AND SCATTERED TSTMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE. DESPITE WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR...PULSE SEVERE TSTMS MAY GIVE ISOLD LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. COVERAGE IS APT TO BE MORE ISOLD ON SUNDAY AS THE STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT MOVES NWD INTO WRN CANADA LATER TONIGHT. ..RACY.. 06/26/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 27 07:31:10 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 27 Jun 2004 02:31:10 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200406270731.i5R7VMK17147@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 270727 SWODY2 SPC AC 270725 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0225 AM CDT SUN JUN 27 2004 VALID 281200Z - 291200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 E DUG 50 NNW GUP 55 NNE BCE 50 E ELY 60 WSW ELY 20 WSW TPH 60 NE MER 30 N SAC 40 SW RBL 45 SE EKA CEC 35 ESE OTH 40 SE EPH 25 NNW 63S ...CONT... 55 NE CTB 65 NNE BIL 25 SW MLS 45 NW REJ 45 NNW PHP 40 NNE VTN 25 NNE BUB EAR 25 NW RSL 35 WNW P28 40 N END BVO 15 WNW UMN 25 NE ALN 20 NNW AZO 35 NE MBS ...CONT... 25 NW SYR 45 SSE UCA 15 E MSV 15 E NEL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNW MQT 40 SW IMT 35 E EAU 20 ESE STC 45 SE FAR 40 ESE DVL 65 NNW DVL. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN...WITH A BELT OF CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTING OVER THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY/NEW ENGLAND...AND AN UPSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. IN THE LOW LEVELS...A MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE GULF COAST AND SE ATLANTIC COAST STATES TO THE S OF A RESIDUAL FRONT. A WEAK SECONDARY FRONTAL INTRUSION IS FORECAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE OH VALLEY...AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH NOW OVER THE NRN PLAINS ROTATES EWD OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND BY LATE TOMORROW. A LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME WILL ALSO CONTINUE ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES BENEATH WEAK NWLY FLOW DOWNSTREAM FROM THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. FARTHER W...A BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND CA...WITH A PLUME OF MID LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE FROM NM/CO NWWD TO THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... AN UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME WILL PERSIST BENEATH 20-30 KT WLY/NWLY FLOW IN THE MID TO UPPER TROPOSPHERE. DAYTIME HEATING AND BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND CONVECTION WILL LIKELY FORM BY EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND SPREAD SLOWLY EWD/SEWD DURING THE EVENING. TOTAL VERTICAL SHEAR WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...BUT LOW-LEVEL WINDS VEERING WITH HEIGHT AND MID LEVEL FLOW AROUND 20 KT MAY SUPPORT A FEW STORMS WITH MARGINAL SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS. LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS. ...INTERIOR NW... STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL AGAIN SUPPORT DIURNAL CONVECTION...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. INVERTED-V PROFILES IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL SUPPORT A THREAT OF ISOLATED MICROBURSTS...THOUGH THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LIMITED BY WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR. ...CAROLINAS... THE REMNANTS OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH NOW OVER TX WILL EJECT ENEWD OVER THE CAROLINAS TOMORROW...AND THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN IN A CONFLUENT FLOW REGIME. MID LEVEL FLOW IN THE RANGE OF 30-40 KT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS EJECTING TROUGH...ALONG WITH A WEAK WAVE ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT THAT NOW LIES ACROSS CENTRAL GA/SC. STRONG/DAMAGING GUSTS MAY OCCUR WITH LINE SEGMENTS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS DURING THE DAY...BUT ONLY LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES ARE WARRANTED AT THIS TIME. ..THOMPSON.. 06/27/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 27 17:36:50 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 27 Jun 2004 12:36:50 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200406271737.i5RHb0K27902@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 271734 SWODY2 SPC AC 271733 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1233 PM CDT SUN JUN 27 2004 VALID 281200Z - 291200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSE LHX 25 SSE TAD 45 WNW TAD 10 W DEN 25 NNW FCL 30 E CYS 10 SW SNY 40 E AKO 50 NE LAA 20 S LAA 50 SSE LHX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DUG 50 WNW SAD 25 SE INW 30 SSE U17 50 NE BCE 50 E ELY 60 WSW ELY 20 WSW TPH 60 NE MER 30 N SAC 40 SW RBL 45 SE EKA CEC 35 ESE OTH 40 SE EPH 25 NNW 63S ...CONT... 55 NE CTB 65 NNE BIL 25 SW MLS 45 NW REJ 45 NNW PHP 40 NNE VTN 25 NNE BUB EAR 25 NW RSL 35 WNW P28 40 N END BVO 15 WNW UMN 25 NE ALN 20 NNW AZO 35 NE MBS ...CONT... 25 NW SYR 45 SSE UCA 15 E MSV 15 E NEL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNW MQT 40 SW IMT 35 E EAU 20 ESE STC 45 SE FAR 40 ESE DVL 65 NNW DVL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS AREA... ...SYNOPSIS... NRN STREAM MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING INTO THE UPPER MS VLY IS EXPECTED TO DIG SEWD THROUGH THE UPPER OH VLY AND NEW ENGLAND MONDAY. LOWER AMPLITUDE IMPULSE OVER THE SRN PLAINS WILL SUBSEQUENTLY EJECT/SHEAR NEWD TOWARD THE CAROLINAS BY MONDAY EVENING. AT THE SURFACE...QUASISTATIONARY FRONT SITUATED FROM THE CAROLINAS TO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS WILL BE REINFORCED BY A NEW FRONT DROPPING SEWD IN WAKE OF THE UPPER MS VLY DISTURBANCE. THESE FRONTS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR TSTMS THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE NEW WORK WEEK. ...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS... BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL TURN MORE SELY ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE CENTER OF PLAINS SURFACE HIGH MOVES TOWARD KANSAS CITY. AS A RESULT...BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS SHOULD RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 50S ALONG THE FRONT RANGE BENEATH STEEP MID TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. TSTMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND STRENGTHEN ON THE ADJACENT PLAINS LATER. MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG AND VERTICAL SHEAR OF 30-35 KTS WILL LIKELY PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLD SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLD TORNADOES. HOWEVER...MAIN SEVERE MODE SHOULD BE MULTICELLULAR AND A SMALL MCS MAY FORM IN THE EVENING ACROSS ERN CO WITH DAMAGING WINDS. GIVEN EXPECTED STRONGER VERTICAL SHEAR/INSTABILITY OVER TODAY...THE SEVERE THREATS APPEAR TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR AN UPGRADE TO CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK. ...CAROLINAS NWD TO PARTS OF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION... MIDLEVEL FLOW OF 30-40 KTS ACCOMPANYING THE SHEARING SRN PLAINS TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE ENEWD TO THE CAROLINAS MONDAY AFTERNOON. TSTMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP VCNTY WEAK SURFACE LOW/FRONT DURING PEAK HEATING AND MOVE TOWARD THE COAST BY EVENING. TSTMS MAY TEND TO DEVELOP INTO LINE SEGMENTS AND BOW GIVING ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS. FARTHER N...CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR TSTMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE HIGHER RIDGES OVER CNTRL PA SWD INTO WRN VA BY AFTERNOON. INCREASING WLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE NRN STREAM IMPULSE MAY ENCOURAGE LINE SEGMENTS TO BOW WITH ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE. MAIN LIMITING FACTORS FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WILL BE WEAK MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY. ...SRN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS... COMBINATION OF RECYCLED MOISTURE FROM THE DIURNAL TSTM CYCLE AND BRIEF ENHANCEMENTS TO THE ELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW REGIME WILL MAINTAIN THE TSTM THREAT ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES MONDAY. IN FACT...MOISTENING OF THE LOWER LEVELS MAY INCREASE WELL WEST OF THE DIVIDE AS WEAK HEIGHT FALLS PERSIST OVER THE DESERTS. GIVEN ORIENTATION OF UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH...INCREASING UPPER DIFFLUENCE/DIVERGENCE WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR TSTMS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NM AND W TX. GIVEN HIGH CLOUD BASES/INVERTED-V PROFILES...ISOLD SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG WITH HAIL. ...INTERMOUNTAIN WEST... DIURNAL MOUNTAIN CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP MONDAY. LARGE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL ENCOURAGE ISOLD SEVERE WIND GUSTS TO ACCOMPANY THE STORMS. OVERALL SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LIMITED GIVEN THE WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR. ..RACY.. 06/27/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 28 07:33:04 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 28 Jun 2004 02:33:04 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200406280733.i5S7XFK02306@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 280730 SWODY2 SPC AC 280728 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0228 AM CDT MON JUN 28 2004 VALID 291200Z - 301200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE IML 20 SE AKO 25 SE FCL 15 NNE LAR 50 SSW GCC 35 SSW 4BQ 15 WSW REJ 60 NE RAP 35 WNW VTN 20 SSW MHN 20 NNE IML. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N CAR 20 WNW MWN 20 SSE ELM 10 SSW CLE 50 SW SBN 25 NE MLI ALO 20 SSW MKT 35 NNE AXN 60 WNW RRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N HVR 20 W GDV 25 S P24 55 ESE BIS 45 SW ABR 50 NNE BUB 10 ENE EAR 15 WSW RSL 30 NW P28 30 W P28 40 NW BVO 40 SSW SZL 20 ESE BLV 10 SSE SDF 15 SSE PSK 15 ENE ECG ...CONT... 35 SSW FHU 20 S GCN 25 NNW CDC 30 SSW ELY 60 SE U31 50 NW TPH 45 WNW BIH 25 E SCK 55 N SAC 45 SW RBL 40 SSE EKA 25 NNE 4BK 20 N PDX 10 W EPH 35 NW 63S. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.... ...GREAT LAKES AREA... ACTIVE NRN STREAM WITH BELT OF CYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO NEW ENGLAND. WITHIN THIS NRN STREAM...ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY WILL MOVE TO NEW ENGLAND AND WEAKEN BY THE END OF DAY 1...WHILE ANOTHER TROUGH NOW OVER NRN MANITOBA/NWRN ONTARIO DIGS SEWD TO THE LAKE SUPERIOR AREA TONIGHT AND CONTINUES EWD TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WAVE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAK SURFACE LOW AND FRONT THAT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. 30-40 KT LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW WITH THIS TROUGH WILL SUPPORT A THREAT OF STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH CONVECTION IN A BAND NEAR THE COLD FRONT FROM ONTARIO DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO FAR WRN NY DURING THE EVENING. HOWEVER...WEAK INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT THIS AREA. OTHERWISE...SEASONALLY COOL TEMPERATURE PROFILES...RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S...AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S MAY SUPPORT A FEW STORMS WITH HAIL DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS WI AND LOWER MI. ...INTERIOR NW AREA... A RIDGE WILL PERSIST OVER THE ROCKIES...WITH AN UPSTREAM TROUGH INVOF CA AND NV. A MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FROM THE SRN ROCKIES NNWWD TO THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...WITH SCATTERED DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STORMS WITH STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE WHERE DAYTIME HEATING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND STEEP LAPSE RATES CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY FROM NE CA TO THE ID PANHANDLE AREA. ...HIGH PLAINS AREA... A SOMEWHAT GREATER CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF ERN WY/NEB PANHANDLE/SW SD DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. WEAK LEE TROUGHING AND ASSOCIATED SELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL DRAW DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S NWWD BENEATH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ABSOLUTE WIND FIELDS WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG OVER THIS AREA...BUT STRONG VEERING WITH HEIGHT WILL RESULT IN MARGINALLY FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN CENTRAL/ERN WY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND SPREAD EWD OVER THE PLAINS DURING THE EVENING. WIDELY SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED STRONG OUTFLOW GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY. ..THOMPSON.. 06/28/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 28 17:32:12 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 28 Jun 2004 12:32:12 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200406281732.i5SHWI131703@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 281729 SWODY2 SPC AC 281728 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1228 PM CDT MON JUN 28 2004 VALID 291200Z - 301200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE IML 20 SE AKO 25 SE FCL 15 NNE LAR 50 SSW GCC 35 SSW 4BQ 15 WSW REJ 60 NE RAP 35 WNW VTN 20 SSW MHN 20 NNE IML. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N CAR 20 WNW MWN 20 SSE ELM 10 SSW CLE 50 SW SBN 25 NE MLI ALO 20 SSW MKT 35 NNE AXN 60 WNW RRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DUG 20 NNE SAD 30 ENE INW PGA 15 SSE U24 20 SW DPG 15 NNW ELY 60 SE U31 50 NW TPH 45 WNW BIH 25 E SCK 55 N SAC 45 SW RBL 40 SSE EKA 25 NNE 4BK 20 N PDX 10 W EPH 35 NW 63S ...CONT... 25 N HVR 20 W GDV 25 S P24 55 ESE BIS 45 SW ABR 50 NNE BUB 10 ENE EAR 15 WSW RSL 30 NW P28 30 W P28 40 NW BVO 40 SSW SZL 20 ESE BLV 10 SSE SDF 15 SSE PSK 15 ENE ECG. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL UPPER AIR PATTERN EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. NEXT IN A SERIES OF MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL ROTATE FROM NRN ONTARIO TODAY TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND BY TUESDAY EVENING. THIS WILL MAINTAIN BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE NERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY INTO MID-WEEK. MEANWHILE...BLOCK PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS WRN NORTH AMERICA WITH A MIDLEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND UPPER LOWS OFF CA AND OVER THE NRN PAC BASIN. WEAK LOW AMPLITUDE IMPULSES ARE EXPECTED TO ROTATE NEWD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION THROUGH TUESDAY...ALONG THE BACKSIDE OF THE ROCKIES RIDGE. ...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS/ROCKIES... RETURN FLOW SHOULD BEGIN IN ERNEST LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT... ADVECTING 50S SURFACE DEW POINTS NWWD INTO ERN WY BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. STEEP MID-TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES ATOP THIS INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT TSTMS. STORMS WILL INITIATE ALONG THE MOUNTAINS FIRST... THEN MIGRATE ONTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS IN THE EVENING. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREATS. SLIGHTLY HIGHER CONCENTRATION OF TSTMS...THOUGH EMBEDDED IN WEAKER INSTABILITY...WILL OCCUR FROM WRN CO AND NERN UT NEWD INTO SWRN WY. LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER AZ WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NNEWD INTO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA TONIGHT AND TOWARD THE CNTRL ROCKIES DURING PEAK HEATING TUESDAY. MORE VIGOROUS TSTMS COULD PRODUCE ISOLD LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...PARTICULARLY IN SWRN PARTS OF WY AND WRN CO. ...NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST... THERMODYNAMIC SET-UP WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR DIURNAL TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AGAIN TUESDAY. STRONGEST INSTABILITY AXIS WILL LIKELY LIE ACROSS PARTS OF ORE AND IN CNTRL ID POSSIBLY AIDING IN A MORE CONCENTRATED TSTM CLUSTERS. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN WEAK...BUT INVERTED-V LOW LEVEL PROFILES MAY CONTRIBUTE TO ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ...CNTRL-LOWER GREAT LAKES... PVA ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT DISTURBANCE WILL SPREAD QUICKLY EWD THROUGH ONTARIO AND LIKELY INTO PARTS OF WRN/NRN NY BY TUESDAY EVENING. A NARROW AXIS OF INSTABILITY WILL ACCOMPANY THIS IMPULSE ...BUT MLCAPES SHOULD REMAIN 1000 J/KG OR LESS. NONETHELESS... MODEST WLY FLOW REGIME WILL ENCOURAGE ANY TSTMS TO EVOLVE INTO SHORT LINE SEGMENTS THAT COULD GIVE ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS. OTHERWISE...RESIDUAL 50S SURFACE DEW POINTS BENEATH MID MINUS TEENS H5 TEMPERATURES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG IN AN AXIS FROM ERN WI ACROSS LOWER MI INTO ONTARIO. WHILE LOW LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE WEAK...TSTMS MAY DEVELOP WITHIN CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME WITHIN THIS INSTABILITY AXIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOW WBZ LEVELS AND MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLD VIGOROUS TSTMS THAT MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL. OTHERWISE...KINEMATIC SET-UP CONSISTING OF UNIDIRECTIONAL PROFILE MAY AID IN DEVELOPMENT OF LINE SEGMENTS WITH ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ..RACY.. 06/28/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 29 07:33:32 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 29 Jun 2004 02:33:32 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200406290733.i5T7Xb103184@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 290731 SWODY2 SPC AC 290730 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0230 AM CDT TUE JUN 29 2004 VALID 301200Z - 011200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW APN 35 E AUW 25 N ANW 50 S PHP 50 ESE REJ 10 NNW Y22 15 SSW BIS 35 NNE FAR 30 N ELO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW BHB 25 NNE 3B1 70 WNW CAR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW ERI 20 SSW YNG 15 ENE MFD 25 ENE BEH 15 S LNR 30 ENE FOD 10 NNE OLU 50 S EAR 25 WNW HUT 35 E ICT 35 ENE SGF 20 NE PAH 15 NNW JKL 20 SW SHD 20 NE WAL ...CONT... 65 N OLF 35 WNW ISN 30 NW P24 35 WSW DVL 35 NNW GFK 35 E RRT ...CONT... 50 SSE DMN 50 SE GNT 10 E CNY 25 NE PUC 25 ENE ENV 15 SSW BAM 50 SE TVL 40 N SAC 55 NNW UKI 10 N ACV 10 ESE OTH 15 N PDX 75 NW 4OM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SD TO UPPER MI AREA.... ...SYNOPSIS... A MEAN TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND AS ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER ONTARIO MOVES EWD OVER MAINE EARLY IN THE PERIOD...AND ANOTHER UPSTREAM TROUGH OVER NRN MANITOBA DIGS SEWD TO ONTARIO AND THE LAKE SUPERIOR AREA. FARTHER W...THE RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE ROCKIES WILL CONTINUE...WHILE A WEAK/COMPLEX FLOW REGIME OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS/SRN ROCKIES IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE INTO A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH FROM NW TX TO SRN KS BY LATE IN THE PERIOD. W OF THE ROCKIES RIDGE...A TROUGH WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY OVER CA...WITH A BELT OF DEEP LAYER SLY FLOW MAINTAINED OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND INTERIOR NW. A BROAD PLUME OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL AGAIN SUPPORT SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION OVER MUCH OF THE ROCKIES AND NRN GREAT BASIN...WHILE DAYTIME HEATING WITHIN A TROPICAL AIR MASS RESULTS IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ROCKIES FRONT RANGE AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS...AS WELL AS THE INTERIOR NW...WHILE A SOMEWHAT MORE CONCENTRATED SEVERE STORM THREAT IS EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES. ...SD TO NRN WI/UPPER MI AREA... THE MID LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING SEWD ACROSS ONTARIO WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE COLD FRONT. ACCUMULATION OF MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER THROUGH EVAPOTRANSPIRATION...ALONG WITH MOISTURE ADVECTION NWD/NEWD FROM THE PLAINS...WILL RESULT IN BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S TOMORROW AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT FROM THE ERN SD AREA TO NRN WI. THIS MOISTURE...ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 7 C/KM...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG/. MEANWHILE...DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL ALSO BECOME AT LEAST MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS ALONG THE COLD FRONT. A FEW STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND SPREAD SEWD INTO THE EVENING. WIDELY SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. ...SRN HIGH PLAINS... THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH FORECAST OVER TX/OK/KS GIVEN THE MUDDLED FLOW REGIME NOW PRESENT OVER THIS AREA...AND THE LIKELY INFLUENCE OF CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS. ASSUMING THE ETA/GFS FORECASTS ARE REASONABLY ACCURATE...THEN THERE WILL BE A BELT OF SOMEWHAT ENHANCED NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW OVER W/NW TX. THIS 20-30 KT NWLY FLOW AND VEERING LOW-LEVEL WINDS WITH HEIGHT COULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. ...NE CA TO ERN WA/ID AREA... ANOTHER DAY OF DIURNAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. THE PERSISTENT LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN PROFILES WITH STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE FOR A FEW STORMS WITH STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS...AND PERHAPS ISOLATED HAIL. THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN LIMITED BY WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR. ..THOMPSON.. 06/29/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.