From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 4 07:32:27 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 04 Jul 2004 02:32:27 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200407030733.i637XK109502@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 030731 SWODY2 SPC AC 030729 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0229 AM CDT SAT JUL 03 2004 VALID 041200Z - 051200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 N ISN 30 SE ISN 30 NE Y22 35 W HON 20 NNE OMA 30 NNW IRK 15 WNW EVV 20 N HOP 25 N MKL 70 ESE HRO 20 WSW TUL 40 WSW GAG 20 SW EHA 35 W AKO 30 WSW CPR 45 WNW COD 30 S GTF 35 NNE CTB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 S GBN 10 SSW PHX 10 ENE INW 85 ESE PGA 40 SW 4BL 20 NNE U17 15 S MLF 20 NNE DRA 60 N NID 25 NE FAT 30 E SCK 60 ESE RBL 65 SSE LMT 45 S BNO 45 NE BKE 10 NW LWS 35 NNW 63S ...CONT... 55 NNW MOT 50 ENE BIS 50 SE JMS 35 ENE AXN 35 SW IWD 70 NNE MQT ...CONT... 35 NE PBG RUT 10 WSW ISP ...CONT... 30 SW PSX 30 SSE AUS 35 SSE BWD 25 ENE SJT 50 WSW SJT 30 SE P07. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE HIGH PLAINS...NRN PLAINS...CNTRL PLAINS AND MID MS VALLEY... ...HIGH PLAINS/NRN PLAINS... A WELL-DEVELOPED UPPER-TROUGH OVER THE NRN ROCKIES WILL MOVE EWD ON DAY 2 AFFECTING THE HIGH PLAINS AND NRN PLAINS. AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT OVERSPREADS THE REGION DURING THE DAY...WARMING SFC TEMPS WILL CAUSE NUMEROUS STORMS TO INITIATE IN THE MTNS AND IN THE HIGH PLAINS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL PROMOTE ISOLATED SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT ALMOST ANYWHERE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND NRN PLAINS REGION. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE VERY STRONG...THE STRONGEST MID-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD SHIFT EWD OUT OF THE UPPER TROUGH INTO ERN MT...SWRN ND AND WRN SD WHERE THE SUPERCELL POTENTIAL APPEARS GREATEST. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS ESPECIALLY NEAR PEAK HEATING. A TORNADO OR TWO MAY ALSO OCCUR MAINLY IN THE BACKED SFC FLOW NORTH TO NORTHEAST OF ANY MESOSCALE SFC LOW THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION. AN MCS SHOULD DEVELOP AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET GETS GOING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...DIVING SEWD INTO SRN SD AND NEB OVERNIGHT. ...CNTRL PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY... THE SRN BRANCH OF THE JET STREAM WILL STRENGTHEN BY DAY 2 AS 35 TO 45 OF MID-LEVEL FLOW OVERSPREADS THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN SEVERAL IMPULSES THAT WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS AND INTO THE MID MS VALLEY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEVERAL STORM CLUSTERS SHOULD DEVELOP AND MOVE ESEWD AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING TROUGHS. ALTHOUGH IT IS TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT THE EXACT POSITION OF STORM CLUSTERS...IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT CELLS WILL FORM IN THE CO HIGH PLAINS AND MOVE SEWD INTO THE INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS KS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS ERN KS AND MOVE EWD INTO MO BY THE EVENING HOURS. THE MID-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS CONSIDERING STRONG INSTABILITY IS FORECAST BY THE ETA AND GFS ACROSS KS BY AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS CONSIDERING THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR IN PLACE. THE STRONG INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP THE ACTIVITY GOING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND AN MCS SHOULD DEVELOP AND MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE REGION WITH A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. ..BROYLES.. 07/03/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 4 17:53:54 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 04 Jul 2004 12:53:54 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200407031754.i63Hsk106074@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 031752 SWODY2 SPC AC 031750 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1250 PM CDT SAT JUL 03 2004 VALID 041200Z - 051200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNW ROC 25 W ELM 20 SSE AOO 20 W SSU 40 WSW BNA 55 SW ARG 25 SW TUL 30 SSW GCK 25 S SNY 30 SSE 4BQ 45 NW MLS 55 NW GGW 30 NE GGW 60 N PHP 20 SSW SUX 15 N OTM 25 NE PIA 35 NNE CGX 25 SE MBL 50 NE APN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 NNE ISN 55 NNE MBG 25 ESE ABR 30 NW STC 50 ENE ELO ...CONT... 15 NNW EFK 15 SE LEB 15 SE GON ...CONT... 35 W HUM 35 SE JAN 15 NNE TXK 40 SSW ADM 20 NNW ABI 30 NW DRT ...CONT... 75 SSW GBN 45 ESE GBN 70 NW TCS 45 SE GNT 85 NW GUP 30 SW PGA 40 NE P38 55 ENE TPH 15 N LOL 80 N WMC 25 NNW TWF 70 SSE S80 10 NW LWS 35 NNW 63S. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE MID MS AND OH VALLEYS / GREAT LAKES... ...SYNOPSIS... BROAD / FLAT MEAN TROUGH AT MID-LEVELS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL 2/3 OF THE CONUS THIS PERIOD...WHILE RIDGES ARE FORECAST ALONG BOTH THE W AND E COASTS. WITHIN COMPLEX CENTRAL U.S. MEAN TROUGH...NUMEROUS SMALLER SCALE FEATURES WILL MOVE EWD IN MODERATE WLY / CYCLONIC FLOW. ONE OF THE STRONGER OF THESE SMALLER SCALE FEATURES WILL MOVE ENEWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY / GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHILE A SECOND MOVES ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES TOWARD THE NRN PLAINS LATER IN THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...FAIRLY STRONG LOW INITIALLY EXPECTED OVER SRN PORTIONS OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SHOULD MOVE NEWD ACROSS THE LAKES TOWARD SWRN QUEBEC. BEHIND THIS LOW...NLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL ALLOW COOLER / MORE STABLE AIRMASS TO SPILL SWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS / NRN MS VALLEY / GREAT LAKES REGION...WHILE WARM / MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS EWD TO THE APPALACHIANS. ...MID MS / OH VALLEYS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION... SEVERAL CONVERGENCE AXES / TROUGHS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE MID MS / OH VALLEYS THIS PERIOD S OF SURFACE LOW MOVING SLOWLY NEWD ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES. ALTHOUGH CLOUDS / PRECIPITATION FROM LATE IN THE DAY 1 PERIOD WILL LIKELY LIMIT HEATING ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION...VERY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA SHOULD RESULT IN MARGINAL TO MODERATE INSTABILITY BY EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THE AREA. THIS WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT -- PARTICULARLY INVOF VARIOUS LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARIES. WITH BROAD BELT OF STRONGER /30 TO 45 KT/ WLY TO SWLY LOW- TO MID-LEVEL FLOW FORECAST ACROSS THIS REGION...SHEAR WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED / SEVERE STORMS. ALTHOUGH LOCALLY STRONG / DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT...SOME HAIL AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. GREATEST TORNADO THREAT APPEARS TO EXIST FROM LOWER MI ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES...WHERE MORE FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL VEERING / SHEAR IS ANTICIPATED. ALTHOUGH SEVERE THREAT SHOULD TAPER OFF SOME THROUGH THE EVENING WITH DIURNAL AIRMASS STABILIZATION...STORMS MAY CONTINUE IN SOME AREAS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ...NRN HIGH PLAINS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS... WLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ADVECT ELEVATED MIXED LAYER EWD ABOVE MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS OVER THE PLAINS. THIS COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALLOW MODERATELY TO EXTREMELY UNSTABLE BUT CAPPED AIRMASS TO DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON. MOST LIKELY AREA FOR INITIAL STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY BE OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS FROM ERN MT SWD INTO WRN NEB...WHERE LOW-LEVEL SELY UPSLOPE FLOW AND CONVERGENCE ALONG LEE TROUGH / SWD-MOVING FRONT WILL ALLOW CAP TO WEAKEN. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR NEAR PEAK HEATING ACROSS KS AND SWD ACROSS PARTS OF W TX NEAR DRYLINE AND OTHER LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARIES. WITH LARGE AREA OF SLY / SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW BENEATH MODERATE WLY FLOW ALOFT...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT MULTICELL / SUPERCELL STORMS ACROSS A LARGE AREA. ALTHOUGH COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED BY CAPPING ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THE REGION...AREAS OF HIGHER STORM COVERAGE / SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY EXIST -- BUT ARE DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE ATTM. THEREFORE...WILL INCLUDE A LARGE 15% PROBABILITY SEVERE THREAT AREA FOR PRIMARILY LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS THIS REGION. STORMS / SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL JET / WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS. ..GOSS.. 07/03/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 5 07:36:35 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 05 Jul 2004 02:36:35 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200407040737.i647bO127478@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 040732 SWODY2 SPC AC 040730 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0230 AM CDT SUN JUL 04 2004 VALID 051200Z - 061200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE SGF 20 ENE OKC 25 WSW LTS 40 WNW CDS 15 SSW EHA 25 SE PUB 45 NE LAR 25 NW AIA 30 NE IML 20 N EAR 40 SE FSD 30 N MCW 40 ENE MLI 25 W UNI 15 N TRI 20 W CSV 25 WSW CGI 25 NE SGF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 S MRF 20 N INK 20 NE LBB 10 S DHT 20 SSE RTN 4SL 35 SSW 4BL 20 SW BCE 30 NW DRA 40 E NID 40 NNE BFL 45 E UKI 45 E ACV 25 ESE LMT 20 S BAM 45 E SLC 35 W RKS 25 SSE IDA 30 ENE BOI 20 SE PDT 55 NW 4OM ...CONT... 60 ENE HVR 55 NNW MLS 45 SW BIS 35 SE DVL 45 NNE BJI 35 NW IWD 30 SSW IMT 20 WSW GRR 20 NNE MFD 30 ENE FKL 20 NW ITH 15 WSW MSS ...CONT... 10 SSE BPT 40 N ESF 20 SSW HOT 30 SSE MLC 15 SE MWL 25 SSE JCT 65 SSE DRT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL/SRN PLNS AND MID MS/LWR OH VLYS... ...SYNOPSIS... LOW AMPLITUDE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LWR 48 ON MONDAY...DOWNSTREAM FROM SPLIT JET OVER WRN CANADA. FARTHER S... WEAK RIDGE EXPECTED TO ELONGATE FROM THE SWRN DESERTS TO THE INTERIOR SERN U.S. IMPULSE NOW OVER THE SRN GRT BASIN SHOULD LIFT NE FROM THE CNTRL PLNS TO THE MID MS VLY DURING THE PERIOD...AND PARTIALLY PHASE WITH STRONGER MIDDLE STREAM IMPULSE NOW ENTERING THE PACIFIC NW. IN THE EAST...TRAILING SRN PART OF TROUGH NOW OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE E/SE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND SRN NEW ENGLAND. AT LWR LEVELS...SURFACE WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH PLNS IMPULSE EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM NRN KS TO NERN IA AS FRONT EXTENDING SW FROM ERN U.S. DISTURBANCE BECOMES STATIONARY OVER THE OH VLY. ...CNTRL/SRN PLNS TO MID MS VLY... AN MCS MAY BE IN PROGRESS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD OVER MO/SRN IA...IN WARM ADVECTION AREA DOWNSTREAM FROM UPPER IMPULSE ENTERING THE CNTRL PLNS. ANOTHER CONVECTIVE SYSTEM MAY BE PRESENT FARTHER W OVER NEB/NW KS...LEFT OVER FROM OVERNIGHT STORMS IN THE HI PLNS. THE MO MCS SHOULD MOVE/DEVELOP S/SE ALONG STALLING FRONT OVER THE MID MS/LWR OH VLYS LATER MONDAY AS SURFACE HEATING BOOSTS MLCAPE TO AOA 1500 J/KG. WITH MID LEVEL WLY FLOW ON THE ORDER OF 35-40 KT AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES GREATER THAN 7 DEG C PER KM...SETUP SHOULD SUPPORT BANDS/CLUSTERS OF SUSTAINED STORMS AND POSSIBLE EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WITH HIGH WIND AND HAIL INTO THE EVENING. OTHER STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT IN ZONE OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE/LARGE SCALE ASCENT IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF CNTRL PLNS UPPER TROUGH...AND INVOF ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW. STORMS MAY ALSO FORM ON ANY OUTFLOW LEFT BY WEAKENING OVERNIGHT NEB/KS CONVECTION. COMBINATION OF MODERATE /30-40 KT/ DEEP WSWLY SHEAR...RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE INFLOW...STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MLCAPE OF 1500-2500 J/KG SHOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS/ SUPERCELL CLUSTERS WITH LARGE HAIL/HIGH WIND AND...DEPENDING ON CONFIGURATION OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES...A COUPLE TORNADOES. THIS ACTIVITY MAY SPREAD NWD/AND INTO PARTS OF IA MONDAY EVENING AS SURFACE LOW MOVES NEWD. ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP LATER MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT SWD ALONG LEE TROUGH INTO SRN KS/NRN OK... AND IN ZONE OF UPSLOPE FLOW AHEAD OF SECONDARY COOL SURGE IN SE WY/SW NEB AND ERN CO. BOTH AREAS MAY CONSOLIDATE INTO E/SE-MOVING MCSS LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY. ...MID ATLANTIC STATES/NEW ENG... SCATTERED STORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE EMBEDDED IN MORE GENERAL SHOWERS...WILL AFFECT THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND PARTS OF NEW ENG. WEAK LAPSE RATES SHOULD MITIGATE DEGREE/COVERAGE OF ANY ASSOCIATED SEVERE THREAT. ..CORFIDI.. 07/04/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 5 17:48:27 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 05 Jul 2004 12:48:27 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200407041749.i64HnF114981@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 041746 SWODY2 SPC AC 041745 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1245 PM CDT SUN JUL 04 2004 VALID 051200Z - 061200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE SGF 20 ENE OKC 25 WSW LTS 40 WNW CDS 15 SSW EHA 25 SE PUB 45 NE LAR 25 NW AIA 30 NE IML 20 N EAR 40 SE FSD 30 N MCW 25 SSW DNV 50 SE IND 20 WNW JKL 20 W CSV 15 ENE POF 25 ESE SGF. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE EFK 25 NW ORH 25 NE NEL 30 ESE MRB 15 NW UNI 30 N CMH 50 NNE CLE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 ENE HVR 45 N MLS 50 SW MBG 35 N ABR BRD 20 SSW IMT 10 NNE MKG 10 ESE LAN 40 NNE MTC ...CONT... PSX 40 SE CLL 30 NNE TXK 30 SSE MLC 20 SE MWL 25 SSE JCT 65 SSE DRT ...CONT... 70 S MRF INK 50 W AMA 45 WSW CAO 30 SW 4CR 20 NNW SVC 40 N SAD 65 N INW 20 SSW 4HV 35 WNW PUC 40 ENE EVW 45 SW JAC 25 N DLN 30 WNW S06 45 NE 63S. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS EWD TO THE MID MS VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES / NERN CONUS... ...SYNOPSIS... MID-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN -- FEATURING A BROAD CENTRAL / ERN U.S. LARGE-SCALE TROUGH WITH NUMEROUS EMBEDDED SMALLER-SCALE FEATURES -- WILL SHIFT EWD WITH TIME AS WEAK LARGE-SCALE RIDGE DEVELOPS WITH TIME DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE WRN U.S. / ROCKIES. WEAK RIDGE WILL ALSO PREVAIL ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST / GULF COAST REGION...SUGGESTING THAT THE MAIN AREA FOR ACTIVE WEATHER THIS PERIOD SHOULD EXTEND FROM THE HIGH PLAINS EWD ACROSS THE MID AND UPPER MS / OH VALLEYS INTO THE NORTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO EXTEND IN AN ARC FROM LOWER MI WSWWD INTO SRN IA / NRN MO...AND FROM THERE CURVING WNWWD ACROSS NEB INTO ERN MT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. WHILE ERN PORTIONS OF THIS FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING EWD / SEWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES / NORTHEAST...WEAK LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY OVER ERN NEB / WRN IA AS MID-LEVEL TROUGH CONSOLIDATES OVER THE PLAINS. AS THIS LOW SHIFTS EWD ACROSS IA THROUGH THE EVENING ALONG SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE...NLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW BEHIND THE LOW SHOULD ALLOW COOL FRONT TO SURGE SWD ACROSS THE PLAINS. BY LATE IN THE PERIOD...COOLER / DRIER AIRMASS SHOULD SPREAD AS FAR SWD AS SWRN KS BY LATE IN THE PERIOD. ...THE PLAINS EWD TO THE MID MS VALLEY REGION... THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. REMNANT OUTFLOWS -- ALONG WITH COLD FRONT MOVING SWD ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON -- WILL LIKELY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME HEATING OF MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS BENEATH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AGAIN RESULTS IN MODERATE TO STRONG DESTABILIZATION. STORMS SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON / EVENING ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AS INCREASING ELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW JUST N OF SWD-MOVING COLD FRONT PROVIDES FAVORABLE UPSLOPE / UVV FOR STORM INITIATION. WITH MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS FORECAST TO CONSOLIDATE / SHARPEN WITH TIME...BELT OF MODERATE /30 TO 40 KT/ WLY FLOW WILL LIKELY BE MAINTAINED ABOVE GENERALLY SLY / SELY LOW-LEVEL WINDS. RESULTING SHEAR WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED / SEVERE STORMS...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE. GREATEST STORM COVERAGE -- AND THUS HIGHER SEVERE PROBABILITY -- WILL LIKELY EXIST FROM ERN CO EWD ACROSS KS TO THE MID MS VALLEY WHERE COMBINATION OF STRONGEST INSTABILITY AND MOST FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD EXIST. STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE / MOVE ESEWD ACROSS THIS REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS LOW-LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES OVER THIS AREA. ...THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION / NORTHEAST... THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THIS REGION BY MID-AFTERNOON ALONG COLD FRONT / AHEAD OF SHARP SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WHICH SHOULD BE MOVING ACROSS SERN ONTARIO AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES DURING THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY WEAK OVER THIS AREA...DAYTIME HEATING OF MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD -- INCLUDING 40 TO 45 KT MID-LEVEL FLOW SPREADING EWD ACROSS THIS REGION IN ASSOCIATION WITH MID-LEVEL TROUGH -- WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS...WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MOST LIKELY THREAT. STORMS SHOULD SPREAD EWD TOWARD NEW ENGLAND DURING THE EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING WITH DIURNAL STABILIZATION. ALTHOUGH SOME QUESTION EXISTS ATTM WITH REGARD TO DEGREE OF DAYTIME HEATING / AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION -- WHICH WILL LIKELY MODULATE DEGREE OF THREAT -- ADDITION OF SLIGHT RISK AREA APPEARS JUSTIFIED ATTM. ..GOSS.. 07/04/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 6 07:36:43 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 06 Jul 2004 02:36:43 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200407050737.i657bT108547@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 050734 SWODY2 SPC AC 050733 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0233 AM CDT MON JUL 05 2004 VALID 061200Z - 071200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNE MAF 40 NNE CNM 40 E 4CR 30 WNW RTN 35 NNE TAD 25 S LAA 15 ESE LBL 30 NW PNC 10 E SZL 10 NNE PIA 20 SSE MKE 20 S MBL 20 N MBS 35 ESE MTC 35 NNW ZZV 10 E LEX 30 WSW HOP 45 ENE PRX 15 WSW ABI 15 NNE MAF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW JHW 20 S PSK 35 SSW CHS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W ELP 75 ESE SOW 55 NE IGM 35 SW BIH 60 NE MER 40 WSW RNO 50 ENE SVE 40 ENE OWY 40 SW MLD 30 NNE VEL 45 SE RWL 40 N CYS 15 SW SNY 35 WNW GLD 50 SW HLC SLN 35 NE STJ 10 SSW MCW 45 NW EAU 20 ENE IWD 80 WNW ANJ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 N OLF 40 WSW 4BQ 30 SSE WRL 40 WNW LND 30 W JAC 60 ENE S80 30 NNW 4OM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS...OZARK PLATEAU...OH VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES... ...SRN PLAINS/OZARK PLATEAU... AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE NRN ROCKIES WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST ON DAY 2. THIS WILL CAUSE A COLD FRONT TO DROP SWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS AND OZARK PLATEAU ON TUESDAY. THE STRONGEST LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO THE EAST OF THE FRONTAL ZONE BY AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...INCREASING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR INITIATION. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS THE OZARK PLATEAU WITH ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE IN WRN OK AND W TX. SFC DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 F WILL EXIST AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS OK...AR AND MO AND THIS WILL HELP CREATE MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY BY AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 20 TO 30 KT ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP THE MAIN MODE OF CONVECTION MULTICELLULAR. HOWEVER...ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF LOCALLY ENHANCED INSTABILITY AND SHEAR. LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST TO BE STEEPEST FROM W TX ACROSS OK. THIS WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR LARGE HAIL. THE MOST FAVORABLE AREA FOR WIND DAMAGE WILL BE ACROSS THE OZARK PLATEAU WHERE STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET WILL EXIST DURING THE EVENING HOURS. IF A COLD POOL CAN GENERATE...WIND DAMAGE COULD BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ACROSS THIS REGION. IF A LINEAR MCS CAN DEVELOP ...THE WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL SHOULD CONTINUE AFTER MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...IT IS TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT EXACTLY WHERE THIS ENHANCED SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST OVERNIGHT. ...OH VALLEY/SRN GREAT LAKES... A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON DAY 2 AND THIS WILL RESULT IN CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A LARGE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER COULD BE ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH. AS THE TROUGH MOVES EWD...A COLD FRONT WILL DIVE SEWD INTO IL AND IND DURING THE DAY. IN ADDITION...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NEWD ACROSS IND...OH AND WV. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG BOTH OF THE FRONTS COMBINED WITH STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE STORMS SHOULD EXPAND IN COVERAGE...SWD TOWARD THE HIGHER INSTABILITY FORECAST TO BE NEAR THE OH RIVER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP SHEAR OF ABOUT 30 KT WHICH COMBINED WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL FAVOR MULTICELL CONVECTION AS THE PRIMARY MODE. HOWEVER A FEW SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE GREATER INSTABILITY ACROSS IL DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE MARGINAL...HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS. THE BETTER THREAT SHOULD BE WIND DAMAGE ESPECIALLY WITH BOWING SEGMENTS THAT ORGANIZE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS THE CONVECTION MOVES AWAY FROM THE LOW-LEVEL JET CROSSING THE OH RIVER. ..BROYLES.. 07/05/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 6 17:39:43 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 06 Jul 2004 12:39:43 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200407051740.i65HeR101442@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 051738 SWODY2 SPC AC 051737 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1237 PM CDT MON JUL 05 2004 VALID 061200Z - 071200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ERI FKL PIT PKB HTS BWG HOP 35 N MEM PBF TXK 20 NW MWL ABI 40 S MAF INK CNM 40 NW ROW PUB DEN FCL 35 ENE AKO 40 E LAA DDC HUT COU SPI BEH MKG 30 S TVC APN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WSW MRF GDP ONM GNT DRO GUC ASE EGE 40 W CAG OGD EKO LOL NFL 50 WNW DRA 35 SW BIH 55 NE MER MHS MFR 55 ENE BLI ...CONT... 65 N OLF OLF 4BQ 40 N RAP 40 SSW PHP MHN HLC RSL SLN MHK 30 WNW FNB YKN BKX STC MQT ...CONT... 35 NW SYR ITH BWI 45 SSW DCA LYH AVL AHN MCN AYS SSI ...CONT... GLS 35 SSW CLL AUS HDO 70 NW LRD. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OH/LOWER MI SWWD TO SRN HIGH PLAINS AND CO FRONT RANGE... ...SYNOPSIS... IN MID/UPPER LEVELS...PROGRESSIVE NRN STREAM PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH DAY-2. TROUGH NOW EVIDENT ON MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER SRN ONT AND E-CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION IS FCST TO EXIT NEW ENGLAND COAST NEAR BEGINNING OF PERIOD. PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER CENTRAL PLAINS IS FCST TO WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY THROUGH EARLY DAY-2 AS IT EJECTS NEWD ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES...IN RESPONSE TO PROGRESS/AMPLIFICATION OF UPSTREAM PERTURBATION NOW OVER WY/MT. LATTER FEATURE WILL MOVE FROM CENTRAL PLAINS TO MS VALLEY BY 07/12Z...ANCHORED BY A MIDLEVEL CYCLONE CENTERED INVOF WRN LS. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW SHOULD MOVE FROM PRESENTLY ANALYZED POSITION OVER SWRN IA...ENEWD ACROSS LOWER MI DAY-2. TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM MID MS VALLEY TOWARD ERN OH...AND SWD ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS TO OK AND TX PANHANDLE. BY 07/00Z...SECONDARY SFC LOW IS PROGGED BY ETA/NGM INVOF FRONT...OVER LOWER PECOS VALLEY REGION OF SERN NM AND W TX. ...GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY TO OZARKS... SCATTERED SEVERE TSTMS -- INCLUDING SOME SUPERCELLS AND BOWS -- ARE POSSIBLE DURING DAY. MOIST ADVECTION AND DIURNAL HEATING IN WARM SECTOR WILL RAISE MLCAPES TO AROUND 1000-2000 J/KG BY 18-21Z TIME FRAME FROM SRN LOWER MI ACROSS PORTIONS OH/INDIANA. VERTICAL SHEAR SUPPORTING SUPERCELLS -- AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO THREAT -- WILL BE POSSIBLE E OF SFC LOW OVER MI/INDIANA BORDER REGION...WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IS MOST STRONGLY BACKED. DEEP-LAYER WIND PROFILES SHOULD BECOME MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL FARTHER S ACROSS MORE OF INDIANA/OH...AHEAD OF SFC FRONT...INDICATING PRIMARY THREAT OF WIND DAMAGE. OVERALL SEVERE PROBABILITIES SHOULD DIMINISH WITH SWWD EXTENT ACROSS INDIANA TO OZARKS REGION...AS BOUNDARY LAYER VEERING IN WARM SECTOR LIMITS FRONTAL CONVERGENCE/LIFT. STILL...AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS DURING AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. EXPECT NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP-LAYER FLOW...WEAK SHEAR...AND SFC DEW POINTS FROM MID 60S TO LOW 70S F SUPPORTING 1500-2500 MLCAPE. ...SRN PLAINS... STRONG SIGNAL EXISTS IN ETA FOR LATE DAY-1 AND EARLY DAY-2 MCS SWEEPING SEWD FROM CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ACROSS SW KS...TOWARD NRN OK. AIR MASS AND MEAN FLOW FIELDS WILL BE IN PLACE TO SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO...WITH ELEVATED MUCAPE 2000-2500 J/KG POSSIBLE INVOF KS/OK BORDER AT BEGINNING OF PERIOD...ALONG WITH MOIST 30-40 KT LLJ. PRIMARY THREAT WOULD BE CONCENTRATED POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND...WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE. SUCH A COMPLEX MAY SURVIVE LONG ENOUGH TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN OK AND REINTENSIFY AGAIN OVER AR BY AFTERNOON HEATING PERIOD...THOUGH SEVERE THREAT WILL BE MORE CONDITIONAL WITH TIME AND WITH EWD EXTENT. SUBSEQUENT SEVERE THREAT OVER OK AND PERHAPS TX PANHANDLE WILL DEPEND ON POSITION AND STRENGTH OF STABILIZING OUTFLOW EFFECTS FROM SUCH A COMPLEX. IN ANY EVENT...UNMODIFIED AIR MASS SHOULD DESTABILIZE FAVORABLY BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON...FROM CO FRONT RANGE/FOOTHILLS REGION SWD INTO NM -- AND PERHAPS EWD INVOF FRONTAL/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER TX PANHANDLE. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE ENHANCED BY ELY/UPSLOPE FLOW COMPONENT...SUPPORTING POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS. ANOTHER MCS MAY EVOLVE FROM AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION THIS REGION AND MOVE SEWD ACROSS SRN HIGH PLAINS. ..EDWARDS.. 07/05/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 7 07:35:56 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 07 Jul 2004 02:35:56 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200407060736.i667ad125011@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 060734 SWODY2 SPC AC 060733 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0233 AM CDT TUE JUL 06 2004 VALID 071200Z - 081200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 N PNC 20 SW HUT 45 N RSL 15 WSW HSI 35 SSW OLU 25 E LNK 25 E STJ 40 N SZL 50 SSE SZL SGF 30 SSW JLN 10 N PNC. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW ART 10 E IPT 30 NNW CXY 20 SW MRB 20 N SSU 35 SE LOZ 25 SSW LOZ 30 N LOZ 20 WNW UNI 35 SW CAK 40 NNE CLE. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NW MOT 45 E MLS 30 NW BPI 35 ESE BYI 10 SSW TWF 50 ESE BOI 65 NE BOI 20 S 3DU 20 SW GTF 30 NW HVR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NW DVL 40 NNW 81V 45 SSE LND 50 SW RWL 50 WSW COS 30 SSE PUB 20 ESE LHX 20 N GLD 15 WNW VTN 30 SE 9V9 30 SE SUX 25 W IRK 15 NE JEF 25 NNW UNO 20 WNW POF 15 S OWB 35 WNW LUK 25 WSW FDY 35 ENE PLN ...CONT... 60 W 3B1 10 SSE PSM ...CONT... 10 SSE P07 30 NNW ALM 60 W GCN 60 NNE NID 35 NNW BIH 35 NNW LOL 60 E BKE 65 N 3DU 55 NE CTB. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN ROCKIES AND NRN HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL AND NRN APPALACHIAN MTNS... ...NRN ROCKIES/NRN HIGH PLAINS... A BROAD UPPER-TROUGH WILL DIG SEWD INTO THE NWRN STATES ON DAY 2 AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SEWD ACROSS MT AND ID. THIS WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AS STRONG LIFT SPREADS EWD ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH. A MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX AROUND 60 KT WILL CREATE STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING LAPSE RATES WILL BE STEEP. INVERTED-V SOUNDING PROFILES AND 500 MB TEMPS IN THE -13 TO -15 C RANGE WILL FAVOR A HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL WITH THE STRONGER STORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ...CNTRL PLAINS... THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL SLIDE EWD ON DAY 2 AND AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD IN THE GREAT PLAINS STATES. STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL OCCUR AS A STATIONARY FRONT IN THE SRN PLAINS LIFTS NWD INTO KS DURING THE DAY. A CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...STRONG LIFT OVER THE WARM FRONT AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES IN THE EVENING SHOULD CAUSE ELEVATED STORMS TO INITIATE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. MODERATE DEEP SHEAR AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN A POTENTIAL FOR BOW ECHOES WITH WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL. IF AN MCS CAN GET GOING...IT SHOULD RIDE SEWD ALONG THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT FROM SE NEB ACROSS ERN KS AND WRN MO. ...CNTRL AND NRN APPALACHIAN MTNS... A WELL-DEVELOPED UPPER-TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS THE NRN MS VALLEY WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON DAY 2. THIS WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE OH VALLEY DURING THE DAY. STRONG ASCENT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND ADEQUATE SFC HEATING FOR MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT IN STORM INITIATION ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW 25 TO 30 KT OF DEEP SHEAR WHICH WILL BE ENOUGH FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELL STORMS. UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES WILL RESULT IN A WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY AS THE STORMS MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE INSTABILITY AXIS IN ERN OH...WRN PA AND WRN WV. ..BROYLES.. 07/06/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 6 17:42:05 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 06 Jul 2004 12:42:05 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200407061742.i66Hgm124881@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 061740 SWODY2 SPC AC 061740 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1240 PM CDT TUE JUL 06 2004 VALID 071200Z - 081200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PNC RSL HSI OLU 40 N SZL 50 SSE SZL SGF 30 SSW JLN PNC. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MSS 30 WSW ALB TTN SSU BKW HTS ZZV 40 NNE CLE. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 N DVL 45 W JMS MBG 81V WRL COD 25 ESE LVM 3HT LWT 65 NNW GGW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 W 3B1 10 SSE PSM ...CONT... 80 N GFK 45 NNW ABR 40 WNW PIR 35 SSE LND 50 WSW COS EHA DDC MCK VTN 30 SE 9V9 30 SE SUX 25 N IRK 40 NE COU 40 SSE VIH POF 15 S OWB 35 WNW LUK 25 WSW FDY 35 ENE PLN ...CONT... 20 SSW P07 30 NNW ALM P38 50 N NID 40 SW TVL SVE 60 E BKE MSO 70 NW FCA. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS MID ATLANTIC/NRN APPALACHIANS REGION... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS CENTRAL PLAINS/LOWER MO VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS NRN HIGH PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... IN MID-UPPER LEVELS...NRN STREAM PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE PROGRESSIVE WITH MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER GREAT LAKES AND NRN ROCKIES REGIONS...AND MINOR/CONVECTIVELY-ENHANCED/INDUCED PERTURBATIONS POSSIBLE FARTHER S FROM SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS TO ATLANTIC COAST. UPPER LOW NOW LOCATED OVER SRN MN IS FCST TO ANCHOR TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE EWD SLOWLY TOWARD E-CENTRAL ONT...LH AND MIDDLE OH VALLEY DAY-2. UPSTREAM SYSTEM -- NOW EVIDENT ON MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY AS LARGE CYCLONE OVER COASTAL BC/AK PANHANDLE...WILL MOVE ACROSS CANADIAN ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS DURING THIS PERIOD. SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD ROTATE THROUGH BASE OF CYCLONE -- ACROSS WA...NRN ID...NWRN MT AND SRN SASK. AT SFC...OCCLUDED CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE ACROSS MUCH OF SRN/ERN ONT THROUGH PERIOD...WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRAILING SWWD ACROSS OH VALLEY REGION AND STALLING ACROSS OZARKS REGION. THIS BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND NWWD AS WARM FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS AND NRN HIGH PLAINS...INTO SRN SASK/ERN MT SFC LOW INDUCED BY NWRN STATES SYSTEM. WRN COLD FRONT SHOULD SWEEP SEWD ACROSS MOST OF MT...ID AND NRN/WRN WY BY END OF PERIOD. WEAK SFC LOW MAY ALSO DEVELOP OVER PIEDMONT REGION OF CAROLINAS...AMIDST PREFRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING NWD OVER PA. ...NERN CONUS... THERE IS CONDITIONAL POTENTIAL FOR A CONCENTRATED DAMAGING WIND EVENT OVER PORTIONS UPPER OH VALLEY...NRN APPALACHIANS AND ADJACENT PORTIONS MID ATLANTIC STATES. SEVERE THREAT OVER MUCH OF THIS AREA COULD BE STRONGLY INFLUENCED BY EFFECTS OF DAY-1 COMPLEXES ON AIR MASS...AND THAT IS PRECLUDING LARGER PROBABILITIES AND CATEGORICAL RISK ATTM. ALSO...OVERNIGHT DAY-1 MCS MAY CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF THIS REGION EARLY IN DAY-2 PERIOD WITH WIND DAMAGE BEING MAIN THREAT. PRECONVECTIVE AIR MASS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR BOW ECHOES AND ALSO OCCASIONAL LARGE HAIL. SFC DEW POINTS MID 60S TO LOW 70S SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE 1500-2000 J/KG BY LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...AWAY FROM PRE-EXISTING OUTFLOW POOLS. VERTICAL WIND PROFILES ARE FCST TO BE ROUGHLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WITH 20-30 KT DEEP-LAYER SPEED SHEAR. ...CENTRAL PLAINS/LOWER MO VALLEY... SCATTERED TSTMS MAY DEVELOP LATE AFTERNOON -- OR MORE LIKELY AFTER DARK -- AND EVOLVE INTO MCS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS POSSIBLE. AFTERNOON AIR MASS WILL BE POTENTIALLY VERY UNSTABLE INVOF AND S OF WARM FRONT OVER OK AND SRN KS...AS RICHLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER RETURNS NWD ACROSS SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS. SFC DEW POINTS MID 60S TO LOW 70S WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES 2000-3500 J/KG AMIDST 8-9 DEG C/KM MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER...EXPECT STRONG CAPPING --- AMIDST WLY/WNWLY FLOW ALOFT AND INVOF MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE -- TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE BEFORE DARK. NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL WAA SHOULD SUPPORT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITH ELEVATED MUCAPE 1500-2500 J/KG POSSIBLE...AND STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. ...NRN ROCKIES...NRN HIGH PLAINS... WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS MAY DEVELOP DURING AFTERNOON INVOF SFC COLD FRONT...MOVING EWD ACROSS ERN MT/WRN DAKOTAS AREA AFTER DARK...WITH DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL POSSIBLE. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES AND INSTABILITY ARE EACH FCST TO STRENGTHEN THROUGHOUT DAY INVOF FRONT...AS TROUGH ALOFT APCHS AND AS DIABATIC HEATING STEEPENS BOUNDARY LAYER LAPSE RATES. MAIN LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE LACK OF RICHER MOISTURE...HOWEVER...SFC DEW POINTS GENERALLY IN UPPER 40S AND LOW-MID 50S F WILL CONTRIBUTE TO 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPES ABOVE DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYERS. THIS ALONG WITH 40-50 KT MIDLEVEL FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT AND PROPAGATION. INCREASINGLY MOIST 30-40 KT LLJ SHOULD SUPPORT CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER PORTIONS WRN ND AND/OR NWRN SD AFTER 08/00Z. ...TIDEWATER REGION... ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS MAY DEVELOP DURING AFTERNOON... MULTICELLULAR AND PULSE IN MODE...WITH A FEW DAMAGING WIND EVENTS POSSIBLE. PRIMARY AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE E OF LEE/PREFRONTAL TROUGH...WHERE INSOLATION AND SFC MOISTENING SHOULD LEAD TO ROUGHLY 1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE. SEVERE POTENTIAL DOES NOT APPEAR SUFFICIENTLY ORGANIZED TO WARRANT CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK ATTM. ...SRN HIGH PLAINS... OROGRAPHICALLY AIDED CONVECTION SHOULD FORM IN STRONGEST DIABATIC HEATING PERIOD OF MID-LATE AFTERNOON. OTHER TSTMS MAY FORM ALONG BOUNDARIES LEFT BEHIND BY DAY-1 CONVECTION. DEEP SUBCLOUD LAYERS AND STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED...WITH MLCAPES 1000-2000 J/KG POSSIBLE. HAIL AND A FEW STRONG-SEVERE DOWNDRAFTS MAY OCCUR...BUT LOW-MIDLEVEL FLOW AND VERTICAL SHEAR EACH APPEAR TOO WEAK TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED SEVERE EVENT. ..EDWARDS.. 07/06/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 7 07:13:19 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 07 Jul 2004 02:13:19 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200407070714.i677E1115950@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 070710 SWODY2 SPC AC 070709 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0209 AM CDT WED JUL 07 2004 VALID 081200Z - 091200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S AXN 20 WSW MLI 30 NE ALN 20 NNW PAH 40 S PAH 30 ENE JBR 20 SW UNO 20 ESE OJC 35 SSW FNB 45 S HSI 25 N MCK 20 ENE SNY 60 SSE 81V 20 E 81V 20 E REJ 30 NW ABR 40 S AXN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNW ELO 45 E DLH 35 S OSH 20 NNW SDF 50 N CSV 25 SE 5I3 15 S BFD 45 NE ROC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S PSX 10 NNW LFK 35 SE HOT 15 ESE FYV 35 SSW EMP 30 SE RSL 45 SSW HLC 50 WSW GLD 15 SSE DEN 25 NE ALS 40 N 4SL 25 SSW FMN 25 S PGA 20 E P38 15 ENE ELY 20 WSW IDA 35 S LVM 75 NE BIL 75 NNW ISN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS NE/SD SEWD TO MID MS VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN AS HEIGHTS RISE AND FLOW WEAKENS S OF 40N WITH STRONGER WLYS NEAR CANADIAN BORDER. VIGOROUS TROUGH NOW MOVING ACROSS SWRN CANADA SHIFTS INTO PRAIRIE PROVINCES WITH FAST WLYS FROM NRN ROCKIES EWD TO UPPER MS VALLEY BY THU NIGHT AS FLAT RIDGE PROGRESSES EWD TO WRN GREAT LAKES. TROUGH MOVES ACROSS NERN U.S. REACHING NEW ENGLAND AND OFFSHORE MID ATLANTIC BY 12Z FRI. ...NEB/SD SEWD TO MID MS/LWR MO VALLEY... LEE LOW DEVELOPS CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AS STEEP LAPSE RATES SPREAD EWD ACROSS SD/NE/KS ON SRN FRINGE OF WLYS. THIS WILL PROVIDE A CAP TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MUCH OF THE DAY...HOWEVER IT WILL ALSO ALLOW THE AIR MASS TO BECOME EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AS VERY MOIST AIRMASS MOVES NWD ON THE SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. MODELS ARE INDICATING BY AFTERNOON...MLCAPES IN EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN NEB INTO KS AS DEWPOINTS RISE TO ABOVE 70F AND 850MB DEWPOINTS PROGGED TO NEAR 20C. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP BOTH IN THE UPSLOPE FLOW IN WRN NE/SD AREA ON THE N SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW AND IN THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE EDGE OF THE CAPE SOMEWHERE VICINITY ERN NE/SD BORDER. THIS SECOND AREA HAS THE GREATEST INSTABILITY WHICH IF REALIZED WOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND AT LEAST AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT. A SEVERE MCS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE BY THU NIGHT AND PROPAGATE IN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME ON THE EDGE OF THE CAP SEWD ACROSS IA INTO NRN MO. ADDITIONAL STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS THROUGH LOWER MO VALLEY WHERE CAP WILL BE WEAKEST AND THE AIR MASS STILL VERY UNSTABLE UNDER A WEAK WARM ADVECTION PATTERN. ...NERN U.S... MODELS SUGGEST THAT LAPSE RATES AROUND 6C/KM AND MLCAPES NOT MUCH GREATER THAN 1000 J/KG WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE FRONT. GIVEN THE 30-40 KT OF MID LEVEL FLOW WITH THE TROUGH AS FAR S AS DELMARVA...AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ..HALES.. 07/07/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 7 17:32:24 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 07 Jul 2004 12:32:24 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200407071733.i67HX3126477@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 071730 SWODY2 SPC AC 071729 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1229 PM CDT WED JUL 07 2004 VALID 081200Z - 091200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM REJ BKX 30 SSW CID UIN 40 ENE VIH 30 N UNO SGF CNU RSL GLD 30 E DEN CYS 81V REJ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM INL CGX LUK HTS CRW EKN 35 SE BFD 35 N ROC ...CONT... 95 W CAR BHB ...CONT... 20 E CRP 50 ESE SAT 35 SSE TPL 60 WNW LFK TYR PRX OKC GAG 45 ESE P07 MRF 40 WSW EHA LAA PUB ALS DRO CEZ 4BL 4HV 50 NE U24 MLD WEY BIL 50 WNW MLS 80 NNW ISN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 S GBN GBN PHX SAD 70 SSW DMN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO LOWER MO VALLEY REGION... ...SYNOPSIS... IN MID-UPPER LEVELS...NRN STREAM PATTERN IS FCST TO FLATTEN SOMEWHAT. CLOSED GREAT LAKES LOW SHOULD MOVE EWD TOWARD SRN QUE AND WEAKEN SLIGHTLY...BUT STILL WITH A BELT OF 70-90 KT 250 MB FLOW AND 40-50 KT WINDS AT 500 MB...THE LATTER AS FAR S AS CENTRAL/NRN VA. SIMILAR WINDS ALOFT ALSO SHOULD SPREAD EWD ACROSS NRN PLAINS AND MN...SE OF CYCLONE NOW EVIDENT OVER BC. THAT VORTEX SHOULD DRIFT EWD ACROSS CANADIAN HIGH PLAINS DAY-2...OCCLUDED AND WITH DEAMPLIFICATION OF JET CURVATURE TO ITS S. SHORTWAVE FORMED BY ETA OVER KC REGION LATE IN PERIOD IS IN FEEDBACK RESPONSE TO INTENSE MODEL CONVECTIVE PRECIP DEVELOPMENT. AT SFC...OUTFLOW-MODULATED FRONTAL ZONE NOW OVER WRN KY...AR AND OK IS FCST TO RETURN NWD ACROSS KS/NEB AS WARM FRONT...CONNECTING TO LEE CYCLONE OVER NWRN NEB BY 08/12Z. BY LATE AFTERNOON THIS LOW SHOULD SHIFT SWD TOWARD KS/CO BORDER REGION ALONG DECELERATING COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE SEWD FROM NRN HIGH PLAINS. BY END OF PERIOD...QUASISTATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD LIE FROM CENTRAL/NRN MO OR SRN IA WWD ACROSS KS/NEB BORDER AREA...THROUGH SFC LOW...AND WWD OVER ERN CO. FARTHER E...OCCLUDED FRONT SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY EWD FROM HUDSON VALLEY REGION ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. ...CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS TO MID MS VALLEY... THROUGH AFTERNOON INTO EVENING...ELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL ADVECT MOISTURE UPSLOPE...COMBINING WITH AFTERNOON HEATING OF HIGHER TERRAIN TO WEAKEN CINH. WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD FORM FROM BLACK HILLS AREA SWD INTO NERN CO. SOME OF THESE SHOULD BECOME SUPERCELLULAR GIVEN 0-6 KM AGL SHEARS RANGING FROM 65 KT OVER BLACK HILLS AREA TO 35-40 KT IN CO. ACTIVITY SHOULD BE RATHER HIGH BASED ATOP DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...SUPPORTING BOTH LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY SUBSEQUENTLY MAY REACH CENTRAL PORTIONS NEB/SD AND NWRN/N-CENTRAL KS MAINTAINING WIND/HAIL THREAT ON NOSE OF 50 KT WRN BRANCH LLJ. CONDITIONAL RISK EXISTS FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE HAIL AND PERHAPS TORNADOES FARTHER E. AFTERNOON INITIATION INVOF WARM FRONT...OVER ERN NEB REGION...IS MUCH MORE IN DOUBT BECAUSE OF POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT CAPPING. BUT IF IT OCCURS...EXPLOSIVE SUPERCELL GENESIS IS POSSIBLE. SHORTWAVE RIDGING SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF DAY...AND WLYS ALOFT WILL ADVECT ELEVATED MIXED-LAYER AIRMASS OVERHEAD FROM HIGH PLAINS AND ROCKIES...MAINTAINING STOUT CAP. MODEL FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT CINH SHOULD WEAKEN BY LATE AFTERNOON ALONG FRONT...AND FRONTAL LIFT MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO YIELD DEEP CONVECTION. ANY TSTMS THAT DO DEVELOP INVOF WARM FRONT SHOULD BECOME SEVERE RAPIDLY IN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY FAVORABLY BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW AND EXTREME INSTABILITY. EVAPOTRANSPIRATION AIDED SFC DEW POINTS IN MID 60S TO LOW 70S AND 9 DEG C/KM MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES 3500-5500 J/KG...AND 0-3 KM SRH 150-300 J/KG IS POSSIBLE WHERE THERE IS SFC-BASED BUOYANCY. WHETHER AS EXTENSION/EVOLUTION OF AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT OR WITH LATER/ELEVATED INITIATION N OF WARM FRONT...A TSTM COMPLEX SHOULD FORM AFTER DARK INVOF LOWER MO VALLEY WITH SEVERE WIND AND HAIL POSSIBLE. ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE SEWD TO SWD ACROSS PORTIONS ERN KS/MO BASED ON ERN BRANCH OF 30-40 KT LLJ...AND EFFECT OF RELATED BACKBUILDING ON MCS MOTION VECTOR FCSTS. ...NERN CONUS... PROGS INDICATE AT LEAST MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND DIURNAL HEATING E OF OCCLUDED FRONT TO SUPPORT TSTM DEVELOPMENT. LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE FCST TO BE RELATIVELY WEAK...BUT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR MAY FAVOR A FEW MULTICELL CLUSTERS OR LINE SEGMENTS WITH STRONG GUSTS...AND PERHAPS ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE. ...SRN HIGH PLAINS... ISOLATED TSTMS MAY DEVELOP LATE AFTERNOON INVOF DRYLINE...ATOP STRONGLY HEATED AND DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYERS. CAPPING SHOULD RESTRICT COVERAGE BUT ANY CONVECTION THAT FORMS MAY BRIEFLY PRODUCE HAIL/GUSTS NEAR SEVERE LEVELS. WEAK LOW-MIDLEVEL FLOW/SHEAR SHOULD RESTRICT ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL. ..EDWARDS.. 07/07/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 8 07:32:03 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 08 Jul 2004 02:32:03 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200407080732.i687Wj105678@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 080730 SWODY2 SPC AC 080729 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0229 AM CDT THU JUL 08 2004 VALID 091200Z - 101200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 ESE ELO 20 E MSP 10 SSE SPW OFK 25 NW BUB 35 WSW VTN 25 SSW BIS 70 NNW DVL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM BRO 40 SSW ALI 30 NNW ALI 45 SSE AUS 40 NW LFK 25 SSW HOT 25 NE LIT 15 WNW POF 45 N COU 20 SW LWD 15 NNW SLN 45 NE LAA 25 N TAD 50 NNW TCC 15 SW HOB 20 WSW P07. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WSW FHU 10 NNE GBN 40 SSE LAS 45 NE DRA 45 E EKO 15 WSW MLD 45 WNW BPI 30 SSW WRL 35 SSW 4BQ 45 NNW ISN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 N ANJ 15 NNE MBS 20 WSW ARB 35 W CMH 55 W HTS 30 NE JKL 30 NE TRI 35 NNE HKY 20 ENE SOP 40 E EWN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY... ...NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY... BROAD RIDGE CONTINUES TO BECOME MORE DOMINATE OVER THE CONUS AS HEIGHTS SLOWLY RISE CENTRAL U.S. AND STRONGER WLYS RETREAT TO NRN BORDER STATES. SURFACE AND UPPER LOW SRN CANADIAN PROVINCES GRADUALLY WEAKENS AND MOVES EWD HAVING LITTLE EFFECT ON THE LOWER 48. LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS E OF ROCKIES MAINTAINING A SLY FLOW OF VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS MUCH OF PLAINS. MID LEVEL WARMING ALONG WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT SHOULD CAP OFF MUCH OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL OVER ALL BUT THE NRN PLAINS. HOWEVER WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR OR ABOVE 70F SPREADING NWD POSSIBLY INTO THE DAKOTAS...AND PRESENCE OF STEEP 850-500 MB LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 8C/KM...A POTENTIALLY VERY TO EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN MUCH OF THE NRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. HAVE LIMITED THE SLIGHT RISK TO NRN PLAINS...WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS STRONGEST ALONG THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE WLYS ALONG INTERNATIONAL BORDER. ADDITIONAL THE MID LEVEL CAPPING WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS FURTHER S IN PLAINS. DETAILS OF THE SEVERE THREAT WILL HAVE TO BE LEFT FOR LATER FORECASTS FOR THIS PERIOD...AS REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM DAY 1 WILL LIKELY PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE IN INITIATION FRIDAY PM. THE EXPECTED STRONG HEATING COULD STILL RESULT IN LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING SEVERE AS FAR S AS KS/NE BORDER GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY. HOWEVER CAP AND WEAK SHEAR WILL CONFINE THREAT TO ISOLATED PULSE STORMS. ..HALES.. 07/08/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 9 08:10:09 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 09 Jul 2004 03:10:09 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200407090810.i698Ag118367@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 090806 SWODY2 SPC AC 090805 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0305 AM CDT FRI JUL 09 2004 VALID 101200Z - 111200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WNW INL 30 SE BJI 45 ENE STC 35 N MCW 50 S SPW YKN 55 E ANW 45 NE MCK 15 NE GLD 25 SSW AKO 40 ENE CYS 15 S 81V 45 NNE SHR 80 ENE LWT 60 NNE OLF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S IPL 20 ENE LAS 30 ENE CDC 45 ESE DPG 40 E EKO 65 NNE 4LW 10 NW DLS 65 ENE BLI ...CONT... 70 ENE CMX 20 NNW RHI 20 ESE VOK 35 NE CGX 20 NE PIT 15 SSE ACY ...CONT... 55 S CRP 25 W VCT 55 SW LFK 15 E TYR 10 WSW MLC 30 S PNC 50 ENE GAG 35 NNE PVW 20 NNW MAF 45 ESE P07. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE BOS 25 NW POU 50 WSW ART. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE NRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ...NRN ROCKIES ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS... REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER MODERATE WLY FLOW ALOFT AS LARGE RIDGING HOLDS OVER THE SRN 2/3S OF THE U.S. MCS MAY BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD INVOF THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF ERN ND/WRN MN WHICH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS ENEWD THROUGH THE MORNING. HOWEVER...OUTFLOW FROM THIS SYSTEM AND WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT FORECAST /EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD ACROSS ND DURING THE DAY/ WILL LIKELY RE-DEVELOP STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER ERN PORTIONS OF THE SLIGHT RISK. ETA SUGGESTS MCS MAY RE-INTENSIFY ON ITS SWRN FLANK DURING THE AFTERNOON AS SYSTEM PROPAGATES ALONG FRINGE OF STEEP LAPSE RATES/CAP EXTENDING OVER THE GREAT PLAINS. IF THIS OCCURS... A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WOULD OVERSPREAD PORTIONS OF MN AND POSSIBLY NRN IA AS FEED OF MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY DEVELOPS. MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY WILL ALSO DEVELOP IN WAKE OF MORNING STORMS OVER ERN MT AND THE WRN DAKOTAS...WHERE CONVERGENCE WILL INCREASE INVOF WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT AND NEAR DEVELOPING LEE CYCLONE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BECOME QUITE STRONG AS IT IS AIDED BY SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORECAST BY BOTH THE ETA AND GFS TO OVERSPREAD THE NRN PLAINS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 40-50 KT ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS WHICH WILL BE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR SUPERCELLS AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES WITH THE INITIAL DEVELOPMENT. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO ORGANIZE DURING THE EVENING INTO A FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS AS SLY LLJ INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO EJECTING UPPER TROUGH. SHOULD THIS ACTIVITY REMAIN ROOTED NEAR THE BOUNDARY LAYER... DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE QUITE LIKELY ACROSS PART OF THE NRN PLAINS AFTER DARK. OTHERWISE...VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY SUGGESTS A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL. FARTHER WEST INTO THE NRN ROCKIES...ETA AND GFS MAINTAIN ELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW INTO CENTRAL MT. THIS WILL LIKELY SUSTAIN A RELATIVELY MOIST /I.E. SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S/ BOUNDARY LAYER...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME RATHER STRONG AROUND UPPER LOW SETTLING INTO THE PAC NW. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND ENHANCE DEEP ASCENT OVER PORTIONS OF THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND THE NRN ROCKIES. SHOULD SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY DEVELOP...A SEPARATE AREA OF SEVERE PROBABILITIES/SLIGHT MAY NEED TO BE INCLUDED FARTHER WEST THAN THE MORE EVIDENT SEVERE THREAT INTO THE PLAINS. ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE SRN PLAINS... VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODEST WSWLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY. THIS SUGGESTS STORMS DEVELOPING EWD OFF LEE TROUGH/HIGHER TERRAIN MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS EWD INTO WRN NEB/ERN CO THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. ETA ADVERTISES A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 25-30 KT MID LEVEL SPEED MAX OVERSPREADING ERN CO INTO OK PANHANDLE/SWRN KS LATE IN THE DAY. SHOULD THIS MATERIALIZE...ACTIVITY MAY ORGANIZE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND SUSTAIN A SEVERE THREAT EWD WELL INTO THE EVENING. A SLIGHT RISK MAY NEED TO EXTEND INTO PORTIONS OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS IN LATER OUTLOOKS IF WEAK MAXIMUM IN MID LEVEL WINDS BECOMES MORE CERTAIN. ...SRN GREAT LAKES INTO THE UPPER OH RIVER VALLEY... SURFACE WARM FRONT ALONG LEADING EDGE OF A VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR WILL SHIFT NWD INTO THE SRN GREAT LAKES/UPPER OH VALLEY REGION SATURDAY. COMBINATION OF SURFACE FRONT AND LOCATION OF 15-20 KT WNWLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL THEREFORE SUPPORT AT LEAST LOW PROBABILITIES OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER...WEAK LAPSE RATES AND SFC-6 KM SHEAR AOB 20 KT MAY LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT. ...FL... MODELS SUGGEST ENELY MID LEVEL WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN A BIT SATURDAY WITH 15-20 KT OF FLOW OVERSPREADING MUCH OF THE PENINSULA. WITH MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES NEAR -8C AND H85 TO H7 LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.5 C/KM...REGION MAY BE RATHER ACTIVE CONVECTIVELY WITH AT LEAST LOW PROBABILITIES OF A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ..EVANS.. 07/09/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 9 17:18:12 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 09 Jul 2004 12:18:12 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200407091718.i69HIi127681@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 091716 SWODY2 SPC AC 091715 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1215 PM CDT FRI JUL 09 2004 VALID 101200Z - 111200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WNW INL 30 ESE STC 25 NNW FOD 25 NE OMA 30 E GLD 25 SSW AKO 40 ENE CYS 15 S 81V 40 WNW 4BQ 50 S GGW 75 N OLF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW BRO 50 E SAT 55 NE CLL 15 E TYR 40 NE ADM 25 SE END 50 WSW END 25 NE PVW 20 NNW MAF 40 SE P07 ...CONT... 85 S GBN 20 SW FLG 45 SSE U17 15 S PUC 45 E EKO 65 WSW BNO 15 NNW DLS 65 ENE BLI ...CONT... 70 ENE CMX 20 NNW RHI 20 ESE VOK 35 NE CGX 20 NE PIT 15 SSE ACY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE BOS 25 NW POU 50 WSW ART. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY TO SOME DEGREE ON SATURDAY ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF STATES WITH DOMINANT RIDGE REMAINING IN TACT ACROSS THE SRN TWO-THIRDS OF THE NATION. MID/UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION CURRENTLY OVER SRN BRITISH COLUMBIA/WA COASTS WILL OPEN AND LIFT NEWD ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM FROM THE GULF OF AK. MEANWHILE...SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NV THIS MORNING WILL BE ENTRAINED INTO FASTER FLOW REGIME ASSOCIATED WITH PACIFIC NW SYSTEM...ALLOWING IT TO TRANSLATE NEWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY... SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING INTO SRN AZ WILL LIFT NEWD AROUND PERIPHERY OF UPPER HIGH AND INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS DURING TIME OF PEAK HEATING. THOUGH MODELS SHOW DIFFERING SOLUTIONS ON WEAK SURFACE PATTERN ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS...NCEP SREF MEAN FORECAST SUGGESTS DEEPENING SURFACE LOW AND ATTENDANT FRONT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EWD OUT OF THE NRN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS DURING THE DAY WHILE LEE TROUGH IS MAINTAINED THROUGH THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS. FARTHER E...NW-SE ORIENTED WARM/QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS OH VALLEY WITH A POSSIBLE WWD EXTENSION ACROSS NRN MO/SRN IA NWWD TO SURFACE LOW OVER WRN SD. ...NRN ROCKIES ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS... STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MOIST A BOUNDARY-LAYER WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON FROM THE DAKOTAS SWD INTO THE NEB WITH MLCAPES APPROACHING 2000-3000 J/KG. FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF NV SHORTWAVE TROUGH COUPLED WITH CONVERGENCE INVOF SURFACE LOW AND ATTENDANT FRONT SHOULD AID IN TSTM DEVELOPMENT BY AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF ERN MT INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS. PRESENCE OF MODESTLY STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW OF 25-35KTS ATOP SELY BOUNDARY-LAYER WINDS WILL RESULT IN 35-45KTS OF DEEP SHEAR ACROSS THIS AREA...SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELL STORM STRUCTURES. LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE INITIALLY...WITH MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT EVOLVING INTO PRIMARILY DAMAGING WINDS AS FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS DEVELOPS EWD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS OVERNIGHT. FARTHER W...STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF OPENING UPPER WAVE OVER THE PACIFIC NW WILL SPREAD NEWD ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THOUGH VEERING LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL TEND TO ERODE MOISTURE CONTENT...STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG SHEAR PROFILES MAY PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. IF LATER MODEL RUNS SUGGEST THAT GREATER INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP THAN IS CURRENTLY FORECAST...AN UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK MAY BE REQUIRED. ...CNTRL PLAINS SWD INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS... STRONG HEATING ALONG LEE TROUGH IN CONJUNCTION WITH FORCING AHEAD OF APPROACHING AZ SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD ALLOW FOR CAP REMOVAL AND RESULTANT TSTM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN AIRMASS CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG. THOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK /I.E. AOB 20-30KTS/...DEGREE OF INSTABILITY SHOULD PROMOTE STRONG UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL. STORMS MAY TRY TO CONGEAL INTO CLUSTERS/SMALL MCS AHEAD OF MIGRATORY SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THREAT EXTENDING EWD ACROSS NEB/NRN KS OVERNIGHT. ...LOWER MO/OH VALLEYS... VERY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS WILL PERSIST S OF QUASI-STATIONARY OR WARM FRONT STRETCHED ACROSS THE REGION WITH DEWPOINTS OF 70-75F. THIS MOISTURE COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO POCKETS OF STRONG INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES APPROACHING 2500-3500 J/KG. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL REMAIN WEAK...HOWEVER THE STRONG INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORM CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. ..MEAD.. 07/09/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 10 07:18:20 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 10 Jul 2004 02:18:20 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200407100718.i6A7Io101165@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 100716 SWODY2 SPC AC 100715 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0215 AM CDT SAT JUL 10 2004 VALID 111200Z - 121200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 N DVL 45 SSW GFK 55 NW IWD ESC 10 N LAN 40 NE LAF 15 WSW DNV 25 W BRL 30 SW FOD 20 WNW HON 30 NNW GCC 70 N SHR 55 NNW GGW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW LRD 45 ESE AUS 35 N MCB 20 N JAN 45 SE PGO 10 N FSM 35 NE SZL 15 SSE STJ 15 W MHK 35 SSE DDC CVS 25 W INK 20 SSE P07 ...CONT... 30 SSE IPL 30 S IGM 65 SE PGA 35 WSW MTJ CYS 50 ENE DGW 30 NE WRL 30 WNW WEY 35 NNW BOI 35 SE 4LW 30 NE RBL 45 W MHS 55 NNW MFR 65 SW PDT 15 ESE PUW 90 NW FCA ...CONT... 35 N ROC 40 WNW ELM 35 ESE IPT 25 E ACY. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE RIDGE WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SRN U.S. SUNDAY... WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NRN TIER STATES FROM THE PAC NW INTO THE GREAT LAKES. HERE...A SERIES OF QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL FOCUS POSSIBLE MCS DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT STEADILY NWD INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH ERN EXTENT LIFTING MORE SLOWLY INTO THE DELMARVA. IN THE SRN ROCKIES AND SWRN STATES...THE PATTERN WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MONSOONAL WITH RATHER MOIST ENELY MID LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING AROUND BUILDING ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER CO/NRN NM. ...NRN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES... REGION WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE SEVERAL STRONG TO SEVERE MCSS DURING THE PERIOD. INITIAL DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY AND WRN GREAT LAKES DURING THE MORNING/AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MORNING MCS MAY HAVE A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER... ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT AND LOW CENTER MAY INITIATE CONVECTION BY THE MID AFTERNOON AS FEED OF STRONG INSTABILITY DEVELOPS ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SWRN EXTENT OF STORM POTENTIAL WILL BECOME MORE LIMITED INTO STRONG CAPPING INTO IA/NERN NEB. HOWEVER WHERE STORMS FORM...SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL FAVOR A THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS. OVERALL EVOLUTION INTO A BOWING SYSTEM MAY OCCUR AS WNWLY FLOW OVERSPREADS WARM FRONT...WITH EVENTUAL MOTION INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ALONG THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY INTO THE EVENING. STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL JET IS FORECAST BY BOTH THE ETA AND GFS TO MOVE INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THOUGH THIS SYSTEM IS PROMISING IN ITS TIMING AND STRENGTH OF MID LEVEL JET FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...SOME CONCERN REMAINS REGARDING INSTABILITY IN WAKE OF MORNING SYSTEM. ATTM... EXPECT AT LEAST A NARROW AXIS OF SELY FLOW AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP FROM WRN SD INTO ERN MT/WRN ND BY LATE AFTERNOON. THUS...ANOTHER AREA OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS...IS EXPECTED INTO THE EARLY EVENING. EWD THREAT OF SURFACE BASED DEVELOPMENT ACROSS ND DURING THE EVENING WILL BE LIMITED. HOWEVER...INCREASING SSWLY LLJ MAY SUPPORT A LATER DURATION TO ANY SUBSEQUENT SEVERE ACTIVITY INTO WRN/CENTRAL SD AFTER DARK. ..EVANS.. 07/10/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 10 17:04:43 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 10 Jul 2004 12:04:43 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200407101705.i6AH5A130923@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 101702 SWODY2 SPC AC 101701 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1201 PM CDT SAT JUL 10 2004 VALID 111200Z - 121200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE RRT 15 N HIB 35 S IWD 35 S MTW 15 SE CGX 15 NNW DEC 50 E OMA 45 SSE 9V9 30 NNW GCC 70 N SHR 55 NNW GGW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 N ROC 40 WNW ELM 35 ESE IPT 25 E ACY ...CONT... 25 WNW LRD 45 ESE AUS 35 N MCB 20 N JAN 45 SE PGO 10 N FSM 35 NE SZL 15 SSE STJ 15 W MHK 35 SSE DDC CVS 25 W INK 20 SSE P07 ...CONT... 30 SSE IPL 30 S IGM 65 SE PGA 35 WSW MTJ CYS 50 ENE DGW 30 NE WRL 30 WNW WEY 35 NNW BOI 35 SE 4LW 30 NE RBL 45 W MHS 55 NNW MFR 65 SW PDT 15 ESE PUW 90 NW FCA. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES... ...SYNOPSIS... ACTIVE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL PERSIST TO THE N OF DOMINANT RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN CONUS THROUGH THE DAY 2 PERIOD. SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS SHOULD BE LOCATED OVER THE UPPER MS/LOWER MO VALLEYS INITIALLY. THIS FEATURE WILL TRANSLATE ESEWD INTO THE SRN GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MEANWHILE...VIGOROUS UPSTREAM TROUGH WILL LEFT NEWD FROM THE NRN ROCKIES INTO SRN SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA WITH SRN FRINGE OF STRONG ASCENT OVERSPREADING ERN MT AND ND ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...PRIMARY LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE MT SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES/DEVELOPS EWD FROM ERN MT TO VICINITY OF THE RED RIVER BY MONDAY MORNING. ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EWD...LIKELY STRETCHING FROM SURFACE LOW OVER NWRN ND SWWD INTO NERN WY BY EARLY SUNDAY EVENING. DIFFUSE WARM FRONT SHOULD ALSO EXTEND FROM THIS LOW SEWD ACROSS ERN SD/CNTRL IA AND ACROSS THE NRN OH VALLEY AT THIS TIME. ...NRN PLAINS EWD INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES... MCS/S OR SEVERAL STORM CLUSTERS ARE LIKELY TO BE ONGOING INITIALLY FROM THE UPPER MS INTO MIDDLE MO VALLEYS AHEAD OF LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THOUGH CONVECTION WILL PROGRESSIVELY SHIFT E OF HIGH LAPSE RATE AIR OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY...PRESENCE OF MOIST AIRMASS S OF RETREATING WARM FRONT SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR RENEWAL OR INTENSIFICATION OF TSTM ACTIVITY BY AFTERNOON ALONG LEADING EDGE OF NOCTURNAL SYSTEM COLD POOL. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK AND GENERALLY LESS THAN 20-25KT. HOWEVER...PRESENCE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORM CLUSTERS WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS EWD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO SWRN GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. A SECOND...POTENTIALLY MORE SIGNIFICANT AREA OF SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT PRIMARILY ACROSS ND. HERE...STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND BOUNDARY-LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF LOW AND COLD FRONT WITH MLCAPES APPROACHING 1500-2500 J/KG. WITH APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE W...45-55KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK WILL OVERSPREAD INSTABILITY AXIS RESULTING IN MORE THAN SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR INDICATE DEEPLY-MIXED BOUNDARY-LAYER CONDITIONS WITH RESULTANT HIGH LCL/LFC HEIGHTS. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY IN STORM LIFE CYCLES...ACTIVITY SHOULD TEND TO EXHIBIT OUTFLOW-DOMINANT CHARACTERISTICS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS. UPSCALE EVOLUTION INTO A FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL EXTENDING AS FAR E AS THE RED RIVER VALLEY BY MONDAY MORNING. ..MEAD.. 07/10/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 11 07:46:43 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 11 Jul 2004 02:46:43 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200407110747.i6B7lA130008@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 110744 SWODY2 SPC AC 110743 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0243 AM CDT SUN JUL 11 2004 VALID 121200Z - 131200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 E MQT 20 SW ESC 20 S GRB 25 SW MKE 35 S CGX 35 NW LAF 15 S CMI 30 N ALN 35 S IRK STJ 40 SSW HSI 25 ESE IML 30 E SNY 50 ENE CDR 25 ESE PIR 20 NNE ATY 15 E BRD 40 SE ELO 70 E ELO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N 63S 55 WNW PUW 25 ESE PDT 65 NNE 4LW 35 ENE MHS 45 W MHS 25 SW EUG 35 E AST 25 NW BLI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM HUL 10 ESE 3B1 15 ESE CON 15 ESE JFK ...CONT... GLS 40 NNE HOU 20 WNW LFK 25 SW SHV 30 E ELD 50 N GLH 30 NNW MEM 50 NW POF 40 NNW SGF 25 E HUT 10 E GCK 40 SSW LAA 25 NE LVS 25 WSW 4CR 15 SE ELP ...CONT... 85 WSW TUS 40 ESE GBN 25 NNE INW 40 NE CEZ 40 ENE CAG 35 NW CPR 40 NE SHR 45 NNW REJ 45 NE Y22 25 ESE JMS 15 NNE BJI 20 N ELO. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MS AND MIDDLE MO VALLEY REGIONS.... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED MOSTLY BY STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER CO DURING THE PERIOD. MODELS INDICATE THE THERE WILL BE A STRENGTHENING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/ASSOCIATED VORTICITY MAX OVER CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THAT WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS SRN WINNIPEG. THIS WILL STRENGTHEN NWLY MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...SURFACE LOW OVER CENTRAL SD INITIALLY WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS NERN NEB MONDAY NIGHT ENHANCING CONVERGENCE ALONG QUASI- STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM SD ESEWD ACROSS IA...IL AND IN THRU PARTS OF OH INTO NERN VA. ...UPPER MS AND MIDDLE MO VALLEY REGION... BOTH MODELS ENHANCE SURFACE LOW AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT FROM ERN SD ESEWD THROUGH IA. AIR MASS E OF THE LOW AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY BECOMES VERY UNSTABLE AS MODELS PROJECT SBCAPE TO BE 3000-4500 J/KG BY 13/00Z ACROSS THIS AREA. FORECAST SOUNDING INDICATE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ON THE ORDER OF 8.0-8.5 C/KM ACROSS WRN PARTS OF THE 15-25 PERCENT PROBABILITY AREA ALONG WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40-50 KT. THUS...THIS AREA LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR BOW ECHO TYPE ACTIVITY MONDAY NIGHT. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP E/NE OF THE SURFACE LOW OVER ERN SD NNEWD ALONG THE COLD FRONT INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL MN. AS NWLY FLOW INCREASES ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...ACTIVITY SHOULD DEVELOP INTO SEVERAL BOW ECHO TYPE SIGNATURES THAT WILL MOVE SEWD AFFECTING SRN MN AND MUCH OF IA BY 13/12Z. GIVEN FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND 0-1KM HELICITY BETWEEN 100-200 M2/S2...ISOLATED TORNADOES COULD OCCUR OVER PARTS OF SERN SD/WRN IA EARLY MONDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW AND HIGH INSTABILITY...MAIN THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. ..MCCARTHY.. 07/11/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 11 16:59:36 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 11 Jul 2004 11:59:36 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200407111700.i6BH06120362@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 111657 SWODY2 SPC AC 111656 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1156 AM CDT SUN JUL 11 2004 VALID 121200Z - 131200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N CMX 30 WNW GRB 20 W RFD 25 E BRL 25 ESE P35 15 NW FNB 35 ESE BUB 25 SSW 9V9 75 N GFK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NW 63S 30 ESE EPH 35 WSW PDT 65 WSW BNO 35 ENE MHS 45 W MHS 25 SW EUG 35 E AST 25 NW BLI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM GLS 40 NNE HOU 20 WNW LFK 25 SW SHV 30 E ELD 50 N GLH 30 NNW MEM 50 NW POF 40 NNW SGF 25 E HUT 10 E GCK 40 SSW LAA 25 NE LVS 25 WSW 4CR 15 SE ELP ...CONT... 85 WSW TUS 40 ESE GBN 25 NNE INW 45 N CEZ 40 ENE CAG 25 NE DGW 25 S REJ 35 NNE Y22 90 NE MOT ...CONT... HUL 10 ESE 3B1 15 ESE CON 15 ESE JFK. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS EWD INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES... ...SYNOPSIS... LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED ON MONDAY WITH GENERAL LARGE-SCALE HEIGHT RISES THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN W AND REGION OF FALLS FROM THE NRN PLAINS EWD TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. MORE SPECIFICALLY...DOMINANT MID/UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE CNTRL ROCKIES WITH REBOUNDING HEIGHTS FORECAST ACROSS THE NRN/CANADIAN ROCKIES IN WAKE OF STRONG SYSTEM TRANSLATING SEWD ACROSS THE SRN CANADIAN PRAIRIES. FARTHER E...SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE FROM THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES/MIDDLE OH VALLEY ESEWD INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION BY TUESDAY MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...SECONDARY LOW ASSOCIATED WITH S-CNTRL CANADIAN SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP SEWD FROM CNTRL SD INTO THE MIDDLE MO VALLEY BY EARLY MONDAY EVENING WITH ATTENDANT COLD FRONT PUSHING SEWD THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS. FARTHER E...BROAD REGION OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP EWD ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE GREAT LAKES WITH ASSOCIATED WINDSHIFT/WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHING EWD INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY BY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...LEE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN E OF THE CNTRL/SRN APPALACHIANS. ...RED RIVER/UPPER MS VALLEYS SWD INTO THE MIDDLE MO VALLEY... LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR EPISODES OF SEVERE TSTMS ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY AS HEIGHTS FALL AND MID/UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELDS STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF VIGOROUS...S-CNTRL CANADIAN SYSTEM. STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE NOCTURNAL MCS MAY WELL BE IN PROGRESS INITIALLY ALONG COLD FRONT OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY. PRESENCE OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MOIST BOUNDARY-LAYER SHOULD ALLOW DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS OVER MN INTO WRN WI TO DESTABILIZE OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY...SUPPORTING A CONTINUED SEWD MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM. STRENGTHENING SHEAR PROFILES IN ADDITION TO THE DECREASING STABILITY SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL EMBEDDED BOWS AND/OR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WITHIN FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS. ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ON SWRN FLANK OF ANTICIPATED MCS AND IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW. THOUGH CAP WILL BE PROGRESSIVELY STRONGER WITH WWD EXTENT...BROAD HEIGHT FALLS AND ENHANCED CONVERGENCE E/NE OF SURFACE LOW SHOULD PROMOTE ISOLATED/SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT INTO PORTIONS OF ERN SD/NERN NEB DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. STRONGLY VEERING WIND PROFILES...40-50KTS OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND MLCAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG ALL SUGGEST THE LIKELIHOOD OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY EXTEND SWD INTO IA OVERNIGHT AS STORMS MOVE/DEVELOP SEWD OUT OF ERN SD/SRN MN. ...MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION SWD ACROSS THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN... HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY...PROVIDING LARGE-SCALE SUPPORT FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSTMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT. WIDESPREAD RAIN/CLOUDINESS WILL LIKELY LIMIT DESTABILIZATION PROCESS AND INHERENT SEVERE THREAT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. EXCEPTION MAY BE INVOF LEE TROUGH AND ANY COASTAL BOUNDARIES FROM ERN VA SWD ACROSS THE ERN CAROLINAS WHERE STRONGER INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP. THOUGH WIND FIELDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK...SOME STRENGTHENING WILL OCCUR WITH APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WHEN COUPLED WITH MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. ..MEAD.. 07/11/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 12 08:00:54 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 12 Jul 2004 03:00:54 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200407120801.i6C81L108504@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 120758 SWODY2 SPC AC 120757 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0257 AM CDT MON JUL 12 2004 VALID 131200Z - 141200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SW ERI 25 WNW PIT 30 SSW PKB 15 NE JKL 55 E BWG 20 NNE PAH 10 W VIH 25 SE TOP 20 NE RSL 15 WNW GLD 30 WSW AKO 10 ENE LAR 10 NNE CPR 35 W GCC 40 NNE 81V 45 SSE REJ 25 SE PHP 55 WSW YKN 30 E SUX MCW 20 WSW EAU 30 WSW IWD 50 ENE ELO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW YUM 30 W PRC 45 E PGA 45 NE GJT 35 NNE CAG 50 W CPR 15 SW COD 15 NE WEY 35 SSW 27U 35 WNW BOI 55 SSW BNO 35 NE LMT 55 SSE EUG 25 N OLM 35 WNW BLI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 N GGW 40 WNW GDV 50 N REJ 25 NNW PIR 15 SSE HON 35 E BKX 40 S STC 55 SSW DLH 25 ESE HIB 30 E INL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 W 3B1 25 NE PSM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW PSX TPL 10 ESE FTW 30 E DUA 20 ESE PGO 50 SE FYV 10 SSE UMN 25 NE CNU 40 W EMP 45 ENE DDC 30 SW LBL 40 SSW AMA 25 NNE MAF 35 NW DRT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY...WWD TO ERN WY... ...GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY... BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY WILL ALLOW A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO DIG SHARPLY SEWD FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE OH VALLEY BY 14/12Z. ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL SPEED MAX IN EXCESS OF 60KT WILL TRANSLATE TOWARD THE BASE OF THE DIGGING TROUGH ACROSS SRN MN INTO NRN IND BY THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH HEIGHT FALLS ON THE ORDER OF 30-60M EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTH OF THE JET. LARGE SCALE PATTERN FAVORS A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE WITH DERECHO-LIKE PARAMETERS FROM PORTIONS OF SRN WI INTO THE OH VALLEY. THIS SUBTLE LARGE SCALE PATTERN CHANGE WILL UNDOUBTEDLY ALLOW MUCH STEEPER LAPSE RATES TO SPREAD ACROSS THE MS VALLEY REGION ATOP A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ENABLING A POTENTIALLY VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO DEVELOP...SBCAPES IN EXCESS OF 4000J/KG...ACROSS INFLOW REGION OF AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. ALTHOUGH DAY1 CONVECTIVE PROCESSES MAY ADVERSELY INFLUENCE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EARLY STAGES OF THE CONVECTIVE CYCLE...IT APPEARS STRONG HEATING AHEAD OF COLD FRONT FROM MO INTO WI WILL AID INITIATION BY EARLY AFTERNOON. DAMAGING LINE SEGMENTS/BOW ECHOES SHOULD DEVELOP WITH AFTERNOON ACTIVITY BEFORE A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT WIND-PRODUCING MCS EVOLVES AND RACES SEWD INTO THE OH VALLEY. AN UPGRADE IN LATER OUTLOOKS IS POSSIBLE AS DAY1 CONVECTIVE INFLUENCES AND CONFIDENCE IN INITIATING ZONE BECOME MORE CLEAR. FARTHER UPSTREAM...STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EVOLVE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WY WHERE ELY BOUNDARY LAYER COMPONENT ON BACK SIDE OF SFC HIGH WILL ENHANCE CONVERGENCE. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD SEWD ALONG FRONTAL ZONE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS ALONG NRN FRINGES OF UPPER ANTICYCLONE. ..DARROW.. 07/12/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 12 12:44:33 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 12 Jul 2004 07:44:33 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200407121244.i6CCis125203@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 121242 SWODY2 SPC AC 121241 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0741 AM CDT MON JUL 12 2004 VALID 131200Z - 141200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SW ERI 25 WNW PIT 30 SSW PKB 15 NE JKL 55 E BWG 20 NNE PAH 10 W VIH 25 SE TOP 20 NE RSL 15 WNW GLD 30 WSW AKO 10 ENE LAR 10 NNE CPR 35 W GCC 40 NNE 81V 45 SSE REJ 25 SE PHP 55 WSW YKN 30 E SUX MCW 20 WSW EAU 30 WSW IWD 50 ENE ELO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 W 3B1 25 NE PSM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW PSX TPL 10 ESE FTW 30 E DUA 20 ESE PGO 50 SE FYV 10 SSE UMN 25 NE CNU 40 W EMP 45 ENE DDC 30 SW LBL 40 SSW AMA 25 NNE MAF 35 NW DRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW YUM 30 W PRC 45 E PGA 45 NE GJT 35 NNE CAG 50 W CPR 15 SW COD 15 NE WEY 35 SSW 27U 35 WNW BOI 55 SSW BNO 35 NE LMT 55 SSE EUG 25 N OLM 35 WNW BLI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 N GGW 40 WNW GDV 50 N REJ 25 NNW PIR 15 SSE HON 35 E BKX 40 S STC 55 SSW DLH 25 ESE HIB 30 E INL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY...WWD TO ERN WY... CORRECTED FOR 5% PROBABILITY LINE ...GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY... BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY WILL ALLOW A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO DIG SHARPLY SEWD FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE OH VALLEY BY 14/12Z. ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL SPEED MAX IN EXCESS OF 60KT WILL TRANSLATE TOWARD THE BASE OF THE DIGGING TROUGH ACROSS SRN MN INTO NRN IND BY THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH HEIGHT FALLS ON THE ORDER OF 30-60M EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTH OF THE JET. LARGE SCALE PATTERN FAVORS A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE WITH DERECHO-LIKE PARAMETERS FROM PORTIONS OF SRN WI INTO THE OH VALLEY. THIS SUBTLE LARGE SCALE PATTERN CHANGE WILL UNDOUBTEDLY ALLOW MUCH STEEPER LAPSE RATES TO SPREAD ACROSS THE MS VALLEY REGION ATOP A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ENABLING A POTENTIALLY VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO DEVELOP...SBCAPES IN EXCESS OF 4000J/KG...ACROSS INFLOW REGION OF AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. ALTHOUGH DAY1 CONVECTIVE PROCESSES MAY ADVERSELY INFLUENCE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EARLY STAGES OF THE CONVECTIVE CYCLE...IT APPEARS STRONG HEATING AHEAD OF COLD FRONT FROM MO INTO WI WILL AID INITIATION BY EARLY AFTERNOON. DAMAGING LINE SEGMENTS/BOW ECHOES SHOULD DEVELOP WITH AFTERNOON ACTIVITY BEFORE A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT WIND-PRODUCING MCS EVOLVES AND RACES SEWD INTO THE OH VALLEY. AN UPGRADE IN LATER OUTLOOKS IS POSSIBLE AS DAY1 CONVECTIVE INFLUENCES AND CONFIDENCE IN INITIATING ZONE BECOME MORE CLEAR. FARTHER UPSTREAM...STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EVOLVE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WY WHERE ELY BOUNDARY LAYER COMPONENT ON BACK SIDE OF SFC HIGH WILL ENHANCE CONVERGENCE. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD SEWD ALONG FRONTAL ZONE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS ALONG NRN FRINGES OF UPPER ANTICYCLONE. ..DARROW.. 07/12/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 12 17:38:28 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 12 Jul 2004 12:38:28 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200407121738.i6CHcm130964@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 121735 SWODY2 SPC AC 121734 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1234 PM CDT MON JUL 12 2004 VALID 131200Z - 141200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NW JHW 30 NNE LBE EKN HSS CHA 35 NNE MKL TBN MHK 55 WNW CNK IML 30 SW SNY 20 E LAR 20 SSW DGW 40 ENE DGW 10 SW CDR 25 N MHN 40 NNE BUB SUX MCW RHI 30 NNW MQT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 N GGW 40 WNW GDV 40 WSW REJ 60 SSW PHP 40 WSW YKN 10 NW SPW 15 NW MKT 35 E STC 15 N DLH 25 E ELO ...CONT... 60 W 3B1 25 NE PSM ...CONT... 25 SW PSX 20 SE TPL DAL 30 E DUA 25 SSE PGO 50 SE FYV UMN 25 NNW CNU 20 N HUT 45 ENE DDC 30 SW LBL AMA MAF 35 NW DRT ...CONT... 10 SW IPL IGM ALS 50 W COS 50 W LAR 50 W CPR COD WEY 35 SSW 27U 35 WNW BOI 55 SSW BNO 35 NE LMT 55 SSE EUG OLM 35 WNW BLI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS GREAT LAKES/OH...TN AND MID MS VALLEYS WWD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER LOW/TROUGH OVER SRN ONTARIO TUESDAY MORNING WILL AMPLIFY INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES DURING THE PERIOD AS A 100 KT HIGH LEVEL JET MAX DIGS SEWD FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. UPPER RIDGE WILL ALSO BUILD NWD ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES...RESULTING IN STRENGTHENING MID/HIGH LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY EWD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM MI SWWD INTO NRN MO...AND THEN WWD ALONG THE KS/NEB BORDER BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ...GREAT LAKES/OH AND TN VALLEYS... CONVECTIVE TIMING/LOCATION IS OFTEN DIFFICULT IN THIS TYPE OF PATTERN AS OVERNIGHT CONVECTION TYPICALLY PROVIDES FOCUS FOR CONVECTION THE NEXT DAY. EXPECT STORMS...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NERN SD...TO BE LOCATED ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN IA/IL AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. THOUGH STORMS MAY BE NON-SEVERE IN THE MORNING... REMNANTS/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SEWD INTO AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. WITH DIURNAL HEATING/DESTABILIZATION...STORMS ARE LIKELY TO INTENSIFY. STRENGTHENING NWLY FLOW AND WITH LIKELIHOOD THAT STORMS WILL CONSOLIDATE INTO A LINEAR MCS...THESE SYSTEMS TYPICALLY MOVE FURTHER SEWD THAN FORECAST BY THE MODELS... SO SEVERE THREAT MAY SPREAD INTO KY/TN DURING THE EVENING HOURS. WIND WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT...THOUGH SUFFICIENTLY STRONG INSTABILITY FOR SOME HAIL ALSO. STORMS ARE ALSO LIKELY TO REDEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT FROM MI SWWD INTO NRN MO TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS THE APPROACHING SPEED MAX INCREASES DIFFLUENCE ALOFT...WITH CONSEQUENT STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S AND 500-700 MB LAPSE RATES FROM 7-8C/KM WILL RESULT IN EXTREME INSTABILITY/ MLCAPE VALUES NEAR 4000 J/KG/. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40-50 KT WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE MODE IS LIKELY TO BE LINEAR AS WEAKENING CAP SHOULD RESULT IN WIDESPREAD STORMS TO FORM ALONG OR AHEAD OF FRONT. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...LARGE HAIL WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT AS STORMS INITIALLY DEVELOP...BUT SHOULD TRANSLATE TO MAINLY A WIND THREAT AS STORMS EVOLVE INTO A FAST MOVING LINE. SEVERE THREAT WOULD CONTINUE WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY/LOWER MI...GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS. ...CENTRAL PLAINS... CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS A LITTLE LESS CERTAIN IN THIS AREA... THOUGH A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...UPSLOPE ELY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND CONVERGENCE NEAR FRONT MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE CAPPING INVERSION WILL BE STRONGER THAN ACROSS THE OH VALLEY...BUT STORMS MAY FORM NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SERN WY. STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT TO PRODUCE SEVERE HAIL/WIND GIVEN MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 2500 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR AT 30 TO 40 KT. AFTER STORMS DEVELOP...THEY MAY SHIFT EWD ACROSS SRN NEB...NORTH OF SURFACE FRONT...WHERE FRONTAL LIFT AID LIFTING THROUGH THE STRONG CAP. ...AZ... TROPICAL CIRCULATION WAS LOCATED ABOUT 150 NM SE OF THE TX BIG BEND MOVING NWD AT 20-25 KT. CURRENT MOTION WOULD PLACE SYSTEM IN EXTREME NRN MEXICO SOUTH OF THE AZ/NM BORDER BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MID AND HIGH LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT AS THIS SYSTEM NEARS THE SWRN STATES. MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS ALREADY PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE SHOULD AID IN CONVECTIVE INITIATION/ORGANIZATION. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY OF CLOUDS FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION AND EXACT MOTION OF SYSTEM...WILL ONLY ISSUE A 5% PROBABILITY FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE WIND GUSTS ATTM. ..IMY.. 07/12/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 13 07:42:57 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 13 Jul 2004 02:42:57 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200407130743.i6D7hL132710@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 130740 SWODY2 SPC AC 130739 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0239 AM CDT TUE JUL 13 2004 VALID 141200Z - 151200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE CHS 20 NW AUO 60 SE HRO 40 NE UNO 30 S OWB 55 ESE LUK 20 ENE JHW 15 ESE ELM 40 ENE SBY. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSW HSI IML 30 WNW BFF 35 NNE DGW 20 E 81V 30 E RAP 45 E ANW 25 WSW OLU 20 SE HSI 55 SSW HSI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW MFE 15 NW ALI 40 W TYR 25 WNW MLC 25 WSW PNC 35 ESE LBL 30 NNE CVS 50 S MRF ...CONT... 10 SSE CZZ 20 ESE LAS 55 E MLF 35 WNW JAC 20 WNW BZN 35 ESE 3TH 40 W PUW 35 SSW RDM 20 ESE MFR 25 NW MFR 15 SW OLM 20 WNW BLI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC...OH/TN VLYS AND THE CAROLINAS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... STRONG MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL DIG SEWD AND EVENTUALLY DIG OUT A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE ERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY BY LATE WEDNESDAY. UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND OVER THE WRN STATES. WEAKER IMPULSES WILL TOP THE RIDGE...WITH ONE SUCH DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS MT/WY THEN INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS BY EARLY THU. AT THE SURFACE...LOW WILL INTENSIFY AHEAD OF THE STRONG TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A COLD FRONT EXTENDING S FROM THE LOW WILL SWEEP RAPIDLY ESEWD... REACHING NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. TAIL END OF THE FRONT WILL ARC NWWD INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. THE FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE TSTMS. ...ERN STATES... LEADING EDGE OF FORWARD PROPAGATING/WIND DAMAGE PRODUCING MCS WILL LIKELY BE VCNTY THE UPPER OH VLY AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. STRONGEST HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DIGGING TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND LOWER GREAT LAKES EARLY WEDNESDAY...THEN INTO NEW ENGLAND BY EARLY THURSDAY. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON HOW DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL AFFECT BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING FROM THE MASON DIXON LINE NWD INTO THE NERN STATES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT LEADING EDGE OF THE MCS COULD REGENERATE AND MOVE TOWARD THE COAST FROM SRN NEW ENGLAND TO DELMARVA BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. GIVEN SUFFICIENT HEATING...FAST WNWLY UPPER FLOW REGIME MAY ENCOURAGE TSTMS TO BOW GIVING DAMAGING WINDS. STRONGEST BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING AND STEEPEST MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD EXIST FROM THE MID OH VLY/MID-ATLANTIC SWWD INTO THE TN VLY. TAIL END OF THE MCS SHOULD INTENSIFY DURING PEAK HEATING OVER THE OH VLY/KY AREA AND COULD BEGIN TO FORWARD PROPAGATE SEWD TOWARD THE CAROLINAS BY EVENING WITH DAMAGING WINDS. OTHER STORMS MAY FAVOR THE LEE TROUGH OVER THE ERN CAROLINAS. WRN EXTENT OF THE SEVERE THREAT IS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN. FORCING/ CONVERGENCE WILL BE MUCH WEAKER FROM MID TN WWD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS AND MIDLEVEL CAP WILL BE STRONGER. THUS...ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY BE ISOLD AT BEST. ...CNTRL/NRN HIGH PLAINS... SELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL ADVECT NEAR 60F DEW POINTS NWWD INTO THE CNTRL/NRN HIGH PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. PRIND THAT TSTMS WILL DEVELOP ON THE HIGHER WY/SD TERRAIN BY AFTERNOON AND COULD MIGRATE ONTO THE PLAINS DURING THE EVENING IF CINH WEAKENS SUFFICIENTLY. VERTICAL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SUGGEST THAT LARGE HAIL MAY OCCUR WITH POSSIBLE DAMAGING WINDS AS THE STORMS MOVE SEWD INTO NEB OVERNIGHT. OTHER ISOLD TSTMS MAY GIVE ISOLD LARGE HAIL/GUSTY WINDS ACROSS ERN MT. ..RACY.. 07/13/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 13 17:33:33 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 13 Jul 2004 12:33:33 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200407131733.i6DHXo131929@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 131731 SWODY2 SPC AC 131730 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1230 PM CDT TUE JUL 13 2004 VALID 141200Z - 151200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S SSI 35 W TCL 60 SE HRO 30 ENE UNO 40 N CSV 30 ENE HTS 20 ENE JHW 15 ESE ELM 15 SE NEL. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM IML 30 WNW BFF 15 SSE GCC 45 S GDV 20 SW DIK 40 ESE ANW 30 W EAR IML. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CZZ 20 ESE DAG 15 NNE MLF 15 NW MLD 10 S LVM 60 ESE FCA 40 W PUW 35 SSW RDM 20 ESE MFR 25 NW MFR 15 SW OLM 20 WNW BLI ...CONT... 30 WNW MFE 20 NNW ALI 15 NW CLL 25 ENE LFK 25 E ESF 20 NW JAN 30 NNW GLH 35 W FYV 15 ESE HUT 25 SSW GCK 40 ENE ROW 60 S MRF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE MID ATL STATES/CAROLINAS AND TN VLY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL/NRN HI PLNS... ...SYNOPSIS... STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW DROPPING SE ACROSS THE UPR GRT LKS EXPECTED TO REACH LK HURON BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. THE SYSTEM SHOULD DECELERATE AS IT CONTINUES SE ACROSS UPSTATE NY LATER WEDNESDAY/ EARLY THURSDAY. GIVEN STRENGTH OF DISTURBANCE AND ITS MOVEMENT INTO MEAN TROUGH OVER THE NERN STATES...IMPULSE SHOULD CLOSE OFF AS UPSTREAM RIDGE REBOUNDS SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE WEST. OVER THE SWRN U.S...ELY WAVE NOW NEAR THE TX BIG BEND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SLOWLY W/WNW...REACHING SE NM EARLY WEDNESDAY AND S CNTRL AZ EARLY THURSDAY. AT LWR LEVELS...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH GRT LKS SYSTEM SHOULD ARC FROM THE UPR OH VLY ACROSS THE LWR TN VLY INTO THE CNTRL PLNS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. THE FRONT SHOULD REACH THE ERN SLOPES OF THE APLCNS BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AS WRN PART BECOMES STNRY OVER THE PLNS. ...MID ATLANTIC STATES... FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS LEFT OVER FROM TODAY'S ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO BE OVER WRN PA/WV AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. CLOUD DEBRIS AND LOW LEVEL OUTFLOW FROM THIS FEATURE SHOULD CONTINUE E ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF PA/NJ/NRN MD AND DEL LATER IN THE DAY. GIVEN RELATIVELY WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES /AROUND 6.5 DEG C PER KM/...THIS MAY LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL IN THOSE AREAS DESPITE PRESENCE OF MODERATE /30+ KT/ DEEP WSWLY SHEAR AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH DIGGING TROUGH. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY...HOWEVER...FORM ALONG OUTFLOW BNDRY AND/OR WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH SYSTEM NOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC CST. ...CNTRL/SRN VA INTO NC/SC... FARTHER S...A BETTER CHANCE FOR SUSTAINED SEVERE MAY DEVELOP FROM CNTRL/SRN VA INTO THE CAROLINAS. STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY EXIST IN THIS REGION /ON THE ORDER OF 7 DEG C PER KM/. IN ADDITION...LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD STEEPEN AS MEAN WLY FLOW AND MORE EQUATORWARD LOCATION ALLOW FOR SIGNIFICANT SURFACE HEATING /AFTN TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 90S/ AND DESTABILIZATION /MLCAPE TO 2000 J PER KG/. COUPLED WITH MODERATE /40 KT/ UNIDIRECTIONAL WNWLY FLOW AND INCREASING UPPER ASCENT/DIFFLUENCE ...SETUP SHOULD PROVE FAVORABLE FOR AFTN STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE E SLOPES OF THE VA/NC/SC MTNS. WITH OUTFLOW FROM THE STORMS LIKELY TO QUICKLY MERGE...SETUP SHOULD SUPPORT EVOLUTION INTO A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS/SQUALL LINE. ATTENDANT EMBEDDED BOWS MAY CARRY HIGH WIND AND POSSIBLE HAIL THREAT TO THE NC COAST BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. ...TN VLY... THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO FORM WITH AFTN HEATING ALONG COLD FRONT SETTLING S INTO THE TN VLY. ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP WWD ALONG BNDRY WITH TIME AS HEATING AND WLY LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW ALLOW CAP TO BE BROKEN FROM EAST TO WEST. DEGREE OF MLCAPE /AOA 2000 J PER KG/...STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE UNIDIRECTIONAL NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL ALSO POTENTIALLY SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF FORWARD-PROPAGATING LINE SEGMENTS IN THIS REGION...AND MAY CARRY A THREAT FOR HIGH WIND/HAIL SEWD INTO NRN AL/GA WEDNESDAY EVENING. BACK-BUILDING ACTIVITY MAY LINGER INTO EARLY THURSDAY ACROSS PARTS OF W TN/NRN MS. ...CNTRL/NRN HI PLNS... A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR SEVERE WILL EXIST INVOF STALLING FRONT OVER WRN PORTIONS OF THE DAKS/NEB...WHERE WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL FOCUS BENEATH MODEST /25-30 KT/ MID LEVEL NW FLOW. IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK IMPULSE TOPPING WRN RIDGE WILL BE FAVORABLY TIMED WITH THE DIURNAL CYCLE AS FAR AS STORM INITIATION IS CONCERNED. BUT THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS AND LOW LEVEL FORCING MAY SUPPORT AFTN STORMS OVER THE BLACK HILLS AND POSSIBLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF ERN WY. ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO YIELD HAIL/HIGH WIND. ...ARN AZ... BNDRY LAYER MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS AZ TOMORROW...WHERE MODEST MID LEVEL ELY FLOW WILL PREVAIL DOWNSTREAM FROM UPPER SYSTEM NOW NEAR THE BIG BEND. CONDITIONS APPEAR TOO UNCERTAIN ATTM...HOWEVER...TO WARRANT ADDITION OF A SLIGHT RISK AREA...MAINLY BECAUSE OF UNKNOWN INFLUENCE OF UPPER SYSTEM ON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. ..CORFIDI.. 07/13/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 14 07:46:06 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 14 Jul 2004 02:46:06 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200407140746.i6E7kL105707@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 140743 SWODY2 SPC AC 140742 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0242 AM CDT WED JUL 14 2004 VALID 151200Z - 161200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NW HVR 15 W 81V 40 SW PHP 35 SSE PHP 25 SE PIR 10 E MHE 25 NNE OMA 35 SSE SZL 15 WNW JBR 35 N GLH 35 S PBF 30 SSW HOT 30 SW CNK 40 NW GLD 35 NNE LAR 35 W WRL 20 SW BZN 50 NNE FCA. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 ENE ELO 10 NNW IWD 10 W MTW 20 SE JVL 25 ENE CID 20 SSW FRM 35 S FAR 60 W RRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW BPT 30 N GGG TUL 30 E GAG 35 S ABQ 40 SE DMN ...CONT... CZZ 55 S BIH 25 NE BIH 35 E P38 30 N MLF ENV 20 ESE TWF 50 WSW 27U 30 E PUW 40 NNW 4OM ...CONT... 65 N OLF 20 SSE SDY 30 W BIS 20 N ABR 70 NE DVL ...CONT... 90 ESE ANJ 20 ENE FDY 20 W SDF 40 S PAH 40 S MSL 20 ESE LGC 40 S CAE 15 SE ECG ...CONT... 20 SSE PVD 25 SSW PSF 40 NNE CXY 20 NE PIT 45 WSW ERI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS...CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE UPPER MS VLY... ...SYNOPSIS... STRONG UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE DIGGING SEWD TODAY WILL EVENTUALLY CLOSE OFF A LOW OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE ERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE SHOULD DROP SWD ALONG WRN PERIPHERY OF THIS TROUGH INTO THE UPPER MS VLY ON THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. BETWEEN THIS TROUGH AND UPSTREAM RIDGE...FAST NWLY FLOW WILL EXIST FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE SERN STATES THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...FRONT THAT WILL FOLLOW TODAYS IMPULSE WILL MOVE OFF THE ERN SEABOARD BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. TAIL END OF THE FRONT WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY FROM THE DEEP SOUTH NWWD THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS. ANOTHER FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SECOND DISTURBANCE WILL DROP SWD OUT OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS BY LATE THURSDAY. ...UPPER MS VLY... BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY ADVECT NEWD INTO THE UPPER MS VLY ON THURSDAY...AHEAD OF THE SECONDARY IMPULSE DROPPING SWD THROUGH NWRN ONTARIO. INCREASED FORCING FOR LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREADING SEWD WILL LIKELY SUPPORT TSTM INITIATION ALONG THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT BY AFTERNOON ACROSS NRN MN. DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY NEAR 60F DEW POINTS BENEATH H5 TEMPERATURES OF MINUS 12C WILL RESULT IN MLCAPES OF AROUND 1500 J/KG. GIVEN MODEST DEEP NWLY FLOW...UPSCALE GROWTH INTO RAPIDLY MOVING TSTM CLUSTERS IS POSSIBLE AND DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL COULD OCCUR. ACTIVITY MAY REACH AS FAR SE AS NRN IL BY LATE EVENING BEFORE POSSIBLY WEAKENING. ...OZARKS NWWD ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS... DIFFICULT FORECAST GIVEN NWLY FLOW REGIME. THERE WILL LIKELY BE AREAS WITH HIGHER SEVERE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA... BUT...ATTM IT IS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT ANY AREAS FOR HIGHER PROBABILITIES. THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA VCNTY THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE CAPPED TO SURFACE BASED TSTMS ON THURSDAY. STRONGEST LOW LEVEL HEATING IS APT TO OCCUR VCNTY SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE NEB/SD BORDER. LOCAL CONVERGENCE AND HOT TEMPERATURES MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO BREACH THE CAP AND TSTMS COULD DEVELOP BY EARLY EVENING. MLCAPES SHOULD RANGE FROM 2500-3000 J/KG AND NWLY VERTICAL SHEAR OF 45 KTS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. TSTM MAY ORGANIZE INTO A MCS AND DROP SSEWD THROUGH NEB WITH HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. LLJ IS LIKELY TO BE RATHER WEAK...BUT INCREASING WARM ADVECTION MAY AID IN INCREASING TSTMS DOWNSTREAM ALONG/NORTHEAST OF THE FRONT SEWD INTO THE OZARKS OVERNIGHT WITH ATTENDANT HAIL THREATS. OTHERWISE...UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN WY/MT WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE BENEATH STEEP MID TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES. TSTMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN COULD BECOME SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CNTRL MT WHERE INSTABILITY/SHEAR COMBINATIONS WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS THAN FARTHER SE ACROSS WY. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE LIKELY. ...SERN STATES... ISOLD SEVERE TSTMS GIVING DAMAGING WINDS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT FROM NRN FL INTO THE LOWER MS VLY. WARM MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES MAY MITIGATE THE SEVERE POTENTIAL AND DOES NOT SEEM TO JUSTIFY A SLIGHT RISK ATTM. ..RACY.. 07/14/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 14 17:29:29 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 14 Jul 2004 12:29:29 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200407141729.i6EHTf114995@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 141727 SWODY2 SPC AC 141726 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1226 PM CDT WED JUL 14 2004 VALID 151200Z - 161200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S MCK 15 E IML 45 WSW MHN 45 ENE CDR 40 N RAP 35 W Y22 40 NW MBG 40 NNE ABR 25 W AXN 35 N MSP 40 E MSP RST 25 SW MCW 55 NE OMA 30 ENE LNK 30 WSW BIE 55 WNW CNK 20 S MCK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW BPT 30 N GGG TUL 30 E GAG 35 S ABQ 40 SE DMN ...CONT... CZZ 55 S BIH 25 NE BIH 35 E P38 30 N MLF ENV 20 ESE TWF 50 WSW 27U 30 E PUW 40 NNW 4OM ...CONT... 65 N OLF 20 SSE SDY 45 ESE DIK JMS 65 NNW GFK ...CONT... 30 ESE ANJ 50 WNW MKG STL 20 NNW DYR 40 S MSL 20 ESE LGC 40 S CAE 15 SE ECG ...CONT... 20 SSE PVD 25 SSW PSF 40 NNE CXY 20 NE PIT 45 WSW ERI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS.... ...SYNOPSIS... MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE U.S. DOMINATED BY TROUGH OVER THE ERN U.S. AND STRONG RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS STATES THAT WILL EXTEND NWD OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. THIS LEAVES MODERATE NWLY FLOW FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE TN VALLEY. ETA MODEL INDICATES THAT STRONG SEASONAL COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EWD FROM ACROSS THE ERN U.S. EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL MA SWD THROUGH SERN VA...THEN SWWD INTO SRN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MS. A LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER S CENTRAL SD WITH A QUASISTATIONARY FRONT THAT WILL RUN FROM N CENTRAL MT INTO NERN WY...THRU THE SD LOW...THEN CONTINUING ACROSS SERN KS AND NERN LA. ...PARTS OF THE NRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ETA MODEL INDICATES VERY WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS MAINLY DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AS IT ALSO EXTENDS ESEWD ACROSS NRN TX INTO CENTRAL LA. THUS...BEST PROBABILITY OF CONVECTION WILL BE ON ANTICYCLONIC SIDE OF THE RIDGE IN THE VICINITY OF THE QUASISTATIONARY FRONT AND PERIPHERY OF STRONG CAPPING INVERSION ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGING. AIR MASS WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING ACROSS THE AREA AS MUCAPE VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 2500 AND 3500 J/KG...WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 7C/KM. THIS REGION WILL ALSO BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF FAVORABLE ENTRANCE REGION OF 90-95 KT UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK ENHANCING UVVS. LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE 40 KT ACROSS THE REGION... FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...THUS ISOLATED TORNADOES COULD OCCUR ON ERN SIDE OF SURFACE LOW IN VICINITY OF QUASISTATIONARY BOUNDARY. ...PARTS OF MS INTO AL... REMNANTS OF UNSEASONABLE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LAY ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AL AND MS DURING THE AFTERNOON. AIR MASS IS FORECAST TO BE MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MUCAPE BETWEEN 3000 AND 4500 J/KG. ANALYSIS OF FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LAPSE RATES WILL BE AROUND 7C/KM INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. ..MCCARTHY.. 07/14/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 15 07:39:47 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 15 Jul 2004 02:39:47 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200407150739.i6F7dw117460@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 150737 SWODY2 SPC AC 150736 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0236 AM CDT THU JUL 15 2004 VALID 161200Z - 171200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NNE ISN 30 E PHP 30 ESE MHN 15 NW IML LAA 20 S PUB LAR 35 SE BIL 40 ESE LWT 70 ENE HVR. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNE BVE 30 S PBF 25 W FSM 30 NE BVO 30 SSE OJC 40 ESE UIN 10 W CGX 20 ENE JXN 20 ESE FDY 20 W SDF 50 S BNA BHM TOI 25 SSE TLH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE EWR 30 NNW BWI 30 SW SHD 40 NE HKY 35 S CLT 30 NNW CRE 30 ESE ECG ...CONT... 25 ESE 7R4 25 WNW ESF 40 E PRX 20 NW FSI 40 ESE AMA 20 W HOB 45 WSW MRF ...CONT... 20 E CZZ 35 E NID 20 NE TPH 60 NNW LOL 15 NNE MHS 10 W MFR 35 ESE PDX 70 NW FCA ...CONT... 45 N MOT 25 SE BIS 20 WSW HON 40 NNW SUX 30 SSW FOD 45 N ALO 65 N EAU 70 NW CMX. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE LOWER/MID MS RIVER VALLEY INTO THE SRN GREAT LAKES... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE CENTRAL AND NRN HIGH PLAINS... ...CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID/LOWER MS AND LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY... FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG SEWD ACROSS THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY AND WRN GREAT LAKES FRIDAY. ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL LIKEWISE MOVE SEWD AND EXTEND FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO THE OZARKS BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. A VERY MOIST AND MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO CENTRAL IL/IND. MCS MAY BE ONGOING ALONG TAIL END OF THIS SYSTEM INTO PARTS OF KS/MO ALONG NOSE OF SWLY LLJ AT BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WHICH WILL LIKELY SHIFT ESEWD THROUGH THE DAY. ETA AND GFS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT WITH LOCATION OF THIS ACTIVITY...THOUGH OVERALL PATTERN SUGGESTS CONVECTION MAY BECOME QUITE ACTIVE INTO PORTIONS OF THE MID-SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON. BRN-SHEAR VALUES WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED LINES AND POSSIBLY SUPERCELLS...AS 35-45 KT OF NWLY H5 WINDS OVERSPREAD LOWER TO MID 70F SURFACE DEW POINTS. LAPSE RATES WILL BE MARGINAL. HOWEVER...OVERALL PATTERN FAVORS POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS OVER THE REGION...ESPECIALLY IF ACTIVITY INTENSIFIES ALONG A COMMON OUTFLOW...WITH THREAT POSSIBLY EXTENDING TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST THROUGH THE EVENING. FARTHER NORTH ALONG THE FRONT...ETA SUGGESTS SBCAPES NEAR 2500 J/KG INTO IL/IND WILL DEVELOP WITHIN WARM SECTOR. LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SHOULD SUPPORT RAPID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY THE MID AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THROUGH THE MID EVENING AS IT SHIFTS EWD. SUPERCELL AND ATTENDANT TORNADO THREAT MAY BE GREATER NEAR WEAK SURFACE LOW INTO PORTIONS OF NERN IL/NRN IND. ...NRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... PERSISTENT WNWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY AS A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES ALOFT DRIFT EWD ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPS ALONG LEE TROUGH. COMBINATION OF UPSLOPE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AND MODEST NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PRODUCE SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR STORM-SCALE ORGANIZATION AS STORMS MOVE ESEWD AWAY FROM HIGHER TERRAIN AND NEAR LEE TROUGH WITH ASSOCIATED THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ..EVANS.. 07/15/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 15 17:47:41 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 15 Jul 2004 12:47:41 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200407151747.i6FHloX23953@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 151746 SWODY2 SPC AC 151745 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1245 PM CDT THU JUL 15 2004 VALID 161200Z - 171200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NNE ISN 30 E PHP 30 ESE MHN 15 NW IML LAA 20 S PUB LAR 35 SE BIL 40 ESE LWT 70 ENE HVR. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNE BVE 30 S PBF 25 SSE MKO 15 N BVO 30 SSE OJC 30 S BRL 25 SW OSH 10 SSW LAN 20 ESE FDY 20 W SDF 50 S BNA BHM TOI 25 SSE TLH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE 7R4 25 WNW ESF 40 E PRX 20 NW FSI 40 ESE AMA 20 W HOB 45 WSW MRF ...CONT... 20 E CZZ 35 E NID 20 NE TPH 60 NNW LOL 15 NNE MHS 10 W MFR 35 ESE PDX 70 NW FCA ...CONT... 45 N MOT 25 SE BIS 20 WSW HON 40 NNW SUX 30 SSW FOD 45 N ALO 65 N EAU 70 NW CMX ...CONT... 15 SSE EWR 30 NNW BWI 30 SW SHD 40 NE HKY 35 S CLT 30 NNW CRE 30 ESE ECG. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SRN GREAT LAKES SWWD TO MID/LOWER MS VALLEYS AND CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ALONG THE NRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND EXTENDING NWD TO THE CENTRAL CANADIAN PROVINCES WILL MAINTAIN NWLY FLOW ALOFT FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO THE TN/LOWER MS VALLEYS AND GULF COAST STATES. ALTHOUGH MODELS AGREE THAT SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE SEWD WITHIN NWLY FLOW...THEY DISAGREE WITH THE STRENGTH AND/OR TIMING OF THESE FEATURES EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE SRN GREAT LAKES AND TN/LOWER MS VALLEYS. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOWER MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES SYSTEMS IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM LM SWWD ACROSS SRN IL/OZARKS REGION TO CENTRAL OK BY 17/00Z. MEANWHILE...A STALLED BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND E-W ACROSS THE SRN GULF COAST STATES. THE WRN PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD RETREAT NEWD AS A WARM FRONT TOWARD MIDDLE TN/CENTRAL AL IN ADVANCE OF TN/LOWER MS VALLEYS SHORT WAVE TROUGH. ...SRN GREAT LAKES SWWD TO MID/LOWER MS VALLEYS AND CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES... 12Z ETA/GFS ARE IN MORE AGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT OF AN EXPECTED ONGOING MCS ACROSS THE ERN PLAINS OF KS INTO LOWER MO VALLEY FRIDAY MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET NOSING INTO ERN KS. MOIST AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THIS MCS AND SEWD MOVING COLD FRONT WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM THE SRN GULF COAST STATES/LOWER MS VALLEY NNEWD TO SRN IL/SWRN IND. INCREASING ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF GREAT LAKES TROUGH AND SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS SRN MO/NRN AR ALONG WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG COLD FRONT AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM MO MCS WILL ALLOW FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF VERY STRONG INSTABILITY /MLCAPE 2500-3000 J/KG/ ALONG THE OZARKS AND SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SUPERCELLS WITH AN ATTENDANT HAIL/ DAMAGING WIND THREAT. INCREASED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE/LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IN VICINITY OF SURFACE LOW OVER SERN MO/SRN IL AND SEWD ALONG WARM FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT A TORNADO POTENTIAL. MODELS TEND TO AGREE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS FRIDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO NRN AL...WITH MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS. FURTHER NNEWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AND WEAKER DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL FAVOR MULTICELLS WITH AN ACCOMPANYING HAIL/WIND THREAT. AN ATTENDANT ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SERN WI/NERN IL INTO NRN IND WHERE A SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO TRACK ESEWD. A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL EXIST ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES SWD ALONG THE OK/KS BORDER FRIDAY AFTERNOON... BUT A CAP ACROSS THIS REGION IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...IF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT IS STRONG ENOUGH TO BREAK THIS CAP...MODERATE INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ISOLATED SUPERCELLS. THUS...A 5 PERCENT SEVERE PROBABILITY IS MAINTAINED ACROSS THIS AREA. ...NRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD SWD ACROSS THE NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. ESELY UPSLOPE FLOW ON THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THIS HIGH WILL MAINTAIN A MOIST AIR MASS ALONG A LEE TROUGH. WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TOPPING THE RIDGE COMBINED WITH NWLY FLOW ABOVE ESELY LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL FAVOR ORGANIZED STORMS AS CONVECTION DEVELOPS ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NRN/CENTRAL ROCKIES FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SUPPORT STORMS MOVING ESEWD OFF THE MOUNTAINS...WITH THE SEVERE POTENTIAL INCREASING AS STORMS MOVE INTO THE INSTABILITY AXIS. STEEP LAPSE RATES SHOULD SUPPORT A HAIL THREAT...WHILE INVERTED-V PROFILES TEND TO FAVOR A DAMAGING WIND THREAT. ..PETERS.. 07/15/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 16 07:34:51 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 16 Jul 2004 02:34:51 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200407160734.i6G7YwX26176@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 160731 SWODY2 SPC AC 160730 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0230 AM CDT FRI JUL 16 2004 VALID 171200Z - 181200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 E SSI ABY 25 SE MEI 50 WNW JAN 15 NNW GLH 40 SSW MKL 25 S TYS 30 E HKY 15 ENE RDU 10 E WAL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW PSX SAT INK ALM SVC 30 ESE DUG ...CONT... YUM DAG FAT RBL EKA ...CONT... OSC AZO 10 SSW MTO TBN MKO LTS 45 NE AMA EHA AKO 10 SSE REJ 70 NE MOT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ON SATURDAY FROM THE CAROLINAS ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES... ...CAROLINAS GULF COAST REGION... LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE MAINTAINED OVER THE WESTERN STATES ON SATURDAY...WITH PERSISTENT TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY. BAND OF MODERATELY STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS IS FORECAST TO EXTEND AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGH FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION AND CAROLINAS. MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS EXPECTED ALONG AND SOUTH OF COLD FRONT FROM EAST TX INTO THE CAROLINAS...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S AND AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OVER 2000 J/KG. SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT AND SPREAD SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE GULF COAST DURING THE EVENING. ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREAT IN THIS AREA. ...NORTHWEST STATES... BAND OF MODERATELY STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS WILL EXTEND OVER THE TOP OF THE WESTERN RIDGE FROM ORE/WA INTO MT. ONLY LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED OVER THIS REGION ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SUGGEST A RISK OF ISOLATED GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS IN STRONGER CELLS. ..HART.. 07/16/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 16 07:45:43 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 16 Jul 2004 02:45:43 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200407160745.i6G7jpX28995@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 160744 SWODY2 SPC AC 160742 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0242 AM CDT FRI JUL 16 2004 VALID 171200Z - 181200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 E SSI ABY 25 SE MEI 50 WNW JAN 15 NNW GLH 40 SSW MKL 25 S TYS 30 E HKY 15 ENE RDU 10 E WAL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM YUM DAG FAT RBL EKA ...CONT... 70 NE MOT 10 SSE REJ AKO EHA 45 NE AMA LTS MKO TBN 10 SSW MTO AZO OSC ...CONT... 10 SSW PSX SAT INK ALM SVC 30 ESE DUG. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ON SATURDAY FROM THE CAROLINAS ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES... CORRECTED FOR BACKWARDS THUNDER LINE ...CAROLINAS GULF COAST REGION... LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE MAINTAINED OVER THE WESTERN STATES ON SATURDAY...WITH PERSISTENT TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY. BAND OF MODERATELY STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS IS FORECAST TO EXTEND AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGH FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION AND CAROLINAS. MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS EXPECTED ALONG AND SOUTH OF COLD FRONT FROM EAST TX INTO THE CAROLINAS...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S AND AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OVER 2000 J/KG. SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT AND SPREAD SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE GULF COAST DURING THE EVENING. ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREAT IN THIS AREA. ...NORTHWEST STATES... BAND OF MODERATELY STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS WILL EXTEND OVER THE TOP OF THE WESTERN RIDGE FROM ORE/WA INTO MT. ONLY LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED OVER THIS REGION ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SUGGEST A RISK OF ISOLATED GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS IN STRONGER CELLS. ..HART.. 07/16/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 16 17:34:34 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 16 Jul 2004 12:34:34 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200407161734.i6GHYeX13310@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 161731 SWODY2 SPC AC 161730 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1230 PM CDT FRI JUL 16 2004 VALID 171200Z - 181200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 E SSI ABY 25 SE MEI 50 WNW JAN 25 NNW GLH 10 SSE MKL 10 S TYS 30 E HKY 15 ENE RDU 10 E WAL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW PSX SAT INK ALM SVC 30 ESE DUG ...CONT... YUM DAG FAT RBL EKA ...CONT... 70 NE MOT 10 SSE REJ AKO EHA 45 NE AMA LTS MKO TBN 10 SSW MTO AZO OSC. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ON SATURDAY FROM THE CAROLINAS ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FROM THE ROCKIES NWD INTO WRN CANADA WITH A TROUGH IN THE EAST. THIS TROUGH WILL DEEPEN SLIGHTLY ON SATURDAY AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH...NOW TOPPING THE RIDGE...AND A TROUGH MOVING SSEWD ACROSS THE WRN GREAT LAKES...MOVE TOWARD THE LOWER MS AND LOWER OH VALLEYS... RESPECTIVELY. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND SOUTH ACROSS THE LOWER OH/TN AND LOWER MS VALLEYS...AND NRN/EAST TX. A STALLED E-W BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN OVER THE GULF COAST STATES. ...CAROLINAS TO CENTRAL/ERN GULF COAST REGION... BAND OF 30-40 KT OF WNWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL EXTEND FROM ERN OK/AR EWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES TO THE CAROLINAS. CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH EXPECTED ONGOING CLUSTER OF STORMS ACROSS LOWER MS VALLEY TO AL MAY LIMIT AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION... DOWNSTREAM ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/ERN GULF COAST STATES. DESPITE WEAK LAPSE RATES...A MOIST AIR MASS IN THIS AREA WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S AND A WEAK CAP WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. 25-30 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL TEND TO FAVOR MULTICELLS. ...LOWER OH/TN VALLEYS TO LOWER MS VALLEY... COOLING MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THERMAL TROUGH MOVING SWD ACROSS THIS AREA WILL AID IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE WEAK COLD FRONT FROM PORTIONS OF OH SWWD TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...AS THE AIR MASS BECOMES MODERATELY UNSTABLE. 25-30 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR FROM KY TO MS SHOULD SUPPORT MULTICELL STORMS... WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR A MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF MS/SRN TN WHERE MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL BE STRONGER. ...NORTHWEST STATES... WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS...WITHIN A BAND OF MODERATELY STRONG SW WINDS ALOFT...WILL TRACK NEWD ACROSS WA/ORE TO MT ON SATURDAY. THE COMBINATION OF NWD MOVING MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH OLD TROPICAL SYSTEM OFF THE CA COAST WILL SPREAD NNEWD ACROSS THIS REGION. THIS INCREASE IN MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND SUFFICIENT SURFACE HEATING WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. DESPITE EXPECTED STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND A LOW THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER...INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS SHOULD SUPPORT ISOLATED STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY. ..PETERS.. 07/16/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 17 07:22:27 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 17 Jul 2004 02:22:27 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200407170722.i6H7MUX07542@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 170720 SWODY2 SPC AC 170718 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0218 AM CDT SAT JUL 17 2004 VALID 181200Z - 191200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE IWD 40 ENE MSP 20 SW AXN 35 W FAR 70 NNE DVL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WNW YUM DAG BFL SAC MFR SLE SEA 10 N BLI ...CONT... CMX EAU FSD IML CDS 10 NW BWD CLL MCB TCL 10 SSE BNA DEC MKG OSC. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ON SUNDAY OVER PARTS OF ND/MN/WI... ...ND/MN... HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES ON SUNDAY...WITH BAND OF MODERATELY STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS EXTENDING FROM ND/MN INTO THE GULF COAST STATES. ETA/GFS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS SASK/MANITOBA...AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN ONTARIO INTO ND/MN. AIRMASS IN THIS REGION WILL BE MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S AND MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000 J/KG. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST A RISK OF SUPERCELL STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. CAPPING INVERSION AND UPPER RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT SOUTHWARD DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION INTO SD/NEB/IA. ...NORTHERN ROCKIES... ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...WHERE RELATIVELY STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS AND CONTINUED INVERTED-V PROFILES ARE EXPECTED. ...GULF COAST... VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON DAY2 ALONG THE AL/FL GULF COAST...WHERE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF STRONGER WESTERLIES MAY ENHANCE CONVECTION ORGANIZATION AND THREAT OF ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS. ...CAROLINAS... RELATIVELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST OVER THE CAROLINAS ON SUNDAY...IN DRY SLOT OF UPPER LOW OVER OH. MODERATELY INSTABILITY /MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 2000 J/KG/ SUGGEST A RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS IN STRONGER CELLS. ..HART.. 07/17/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 17 17:38:37 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 17 Jul 2004 12:38:37 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200407171738.i6HHcdX16580@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 171736 SWODY2 SPC AC 171735 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1235 PM CDT SAT JUL 17 2004 VALID 181200Z - 191200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE IWD 40 ENE MSP 20 SW AXN 35 W FAR 70 NNE DVL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WNW YUM DAG BFL SAC MFR SLE SEA 10 N BLI ...CONT... CMX 10 NE EAU 20 N SUX 15 WSW BIE 20 ESE GLD CDS 10 NW BWD CLL MCB 15 NW TCL 45 ENE MKL DEC MKG OSC ...CONT... 55 NW 3B1 10 S HUL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ON SUNDAY ACROSS PARTS OF NERN ND/MN INTO NWRN WI... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WRN STATES WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH IN THE EAST. BAND OF 30-35 KT WINDS WILL EXTEND FROM CENTRAL CANADA ACROSS THE DAKOTAS/MN TO THE GULF COAST STATES...AND THEN CONTINUING ENEWD TO THE CAROLINAS/MID ATLANTIC STATES. A BAND OF MODERATELY STRONG SWLY WINDS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE PAC NW AS AN UPPER LOW... CURRENTLY OFF THE NW COAST...BEGINS TO MOVE INLAND. ...ND/MN... ETA/GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK TOWARD ND/ NRN MN BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN TO LAKE SUPERIOR/NRN WI SUNDAY NIGHT. AIR MASS IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM WRN ONTARIO ACROSS NWRN MN INTO NERN ND...WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY AND AROUND 40 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTING SUPERCELLS. ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD ESEWD ACROSS NERN MN TO NRN WI AND POTENTIALLY INTO THE WRN U.P. OF MI SUNDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ...CAROLINAS TO THE NERN GULF COAST... WEAK COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM THE OH TO LOWER MS VALLEYS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND SOUTH ALONG THE SRN GULF COAST STATES ON SUNDAY. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE PROGGED TO STEEPEN SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS INLAND SECTIONS OF ERN GA TO THE CAROLINAS AND SERN VA AS A DRY SLOT SPREADS ACROSS THIS REGION. THIS COMBINED WITH A MOIST AIR MASS IN ADVANCE OF THE WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY...AND SURFACE HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY. 30-35 KT OF SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR MULTICELLS AND A FEW SUPERCELLS PRODUCING ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. GIVEN LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...THIS AREA WILL REMAIN IN A 5 PERCENT CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS. SWD ACROSS THE NERN GULF COAST STATES...MODERATE INSTABILITY AND MODERATE WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT SOME STORM ORGANIZATION. HOWEVER...WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. ...SRN HIGH PLAINS... 30-35 KT OF NNWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ABOVE SELY LOW-LEVEL WINDS AT 10-15 KT WILL RESULT IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS. STRONG SURFACE HEATING COMBINED WITH AN AXIS OF SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LEE TROUGH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW DIURNAL SUPERCELLS TO DEVELOP WITH ISOLATED HAIL AND/OR A FEW DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS. ...PAC NW TO NRN ROCKIES... MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NWD ACROSS THIS REGION WITH MODELS INDICATING A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK FROM THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION ENEWD TO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. DESPITE SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR STORM ORGANIZATION... MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL...BUT INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS SHOULD RESULT IN A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ..PETERS.. 07/17/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 18 07:30:43 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 18 Jul 2004 02:30:43 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200407180730.i6I7UhX09034@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 180728 SWODY2 SPC AC 180727 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0227 AM CDT SUN JUL 18 2004 VALID 191200Z - 201200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NE MOT 10 NNE BIS 65 S Y22 GCC 70 E BIL 10 SE LWT 40 NE CTB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM YUM 40 NE TRM EDW MER SVE 4LW 10 NW SLE 25 SSW AST. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM LAF OTM HLC AMA SJT BPT CEW MCN TRI LUK LAF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...MT/ND/MN... HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN STATES IS FORECAST TO FLATTEN OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY MONDAY EVENING...AS STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATES ACROSS REGION. ETA/GFS SOLUTIONS DIFFER IN TIMING AND LOCATION OF THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL AFFECT PARTS OF MT/ND ON DAY2. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF WY/SD/MT/ND WILL TRANSPORT MOISTURE NORTHWARD...LEADING TO MODERATE INSTABILITY. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL MT AND SOUTHERN ALBERTA...SPREADING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO ND DURING THE EVENING. SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREAT. GFS SOLUTIONS SUGGESTS THAT THREAT WILL DEVELOP EASTWARD OVERNIGHT ACROSS ND INTO MN AHEAD OF STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS AREA MAY REQUIRE INCLUSION IN SLIGHT RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS IF SCENARIO BECOMES MORE LIKELY. ...NORTHERN ROCKIES... STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON MONDAY. SEVERAL DAYS OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY AID IN A SLOW MOISTENING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER...ALLOWING POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY. SCATTERED HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS. HOWEVER...THIS AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR GREATER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND AN INCREASED RISK OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL. ...GREAT LAKES REGION... ETA SOLUTIONS SHOWS A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS MN/WI MONDAY MORNING. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD INTO LOWER MI AND EVENTUALLY PARTS OF IND/OH DURING THE AFTERNOON. SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR/INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE FOR ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS. ...VA/NC... SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE AHEAD OF MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AS IT TRACKS EASTWARD AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY. SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S AND FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT A RISK OF ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS...IF POCKETS OF STRONG INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP. ..HART.. 07/18/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 18 17:45:35 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 18 Jul 2004 12:45:35 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200407181745.i6IHjXX16280@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 181743 SWODY2 SPC AC 181741 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1241 PM CDT SUN JUL 18 2004 VALID 191200Z - 201200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 NE MOT 35 S BIS 60 SSE Y22 40 ENE 81V 4BQ 65 NW MLS 75 ENE HVR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM LAF 10 E OTM 45 NNE CNU 45 NE PNC 10 N P28 20 SSW HLC AMA SJT BPT CEW MCN TRI LUK LAF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM YUM 40 NE TRM EDW MER 60 N SVE 25 E MFR 10 NW SLE 25 SSW AST. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN MT/NWRN SD AND WRN-CENTRAL ND... ...SYNOPSIS... WRN UPPER RIDGE NOSING INTO THE NRN ROCKIES AND WRN CANADA WILL BREAK DOWN ON MONDAY...AS THE NERN PACIFIC CLOSED LOW MOVES FURTHER INLAND ACROSS WRN CANADA. HEIGHT RISES ARE EXPECTED FROM KS SOUTH AND EWD AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS. THIS TREND WILL WEAKEN THE LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE OVER THE ERN STATES. ...ERN MT/WRN-CENTRAL ND/NWRN SD... WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH...LOCATED WITHIN PLUME OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND CURRENTLY OVER THE NRN GREAT BASIN...IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER CENTRAL MT BY 12Z MONDAY. THE 12Z ETA/GFS CONTINUE TO DIFFER IN THE TIMING OF THIS TROUGH AS IT MOVES EWD ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL STATES ON DAY 2. THE GFS REMAINS FASTER WITH THIS SYSTEM...WHILE THE ETA APPEARS TO BE CLOSER TO CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS. ETA FOLLOWED FOR CONVECTIVE THREAT. STEEP LAPSE RATES ACROSS ERN MT INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS SHOULD SUPPORT MODERATE INSTABILITY...ALONG AND EAST OF THE LEE TROUGH. INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH TOPS THE UPPER RIDGE AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LEE TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON OVER ERN MT/NERN WY. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS. LOWER SLIGHT RISK PROBABILITIES WILL BE MAINTAINED SINCE WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES/THERMAL RIDGE INDICATED BY THE GFS OVER ERN MT AT 00Z AND LAGGING WWD SOMEWHAT BY THE ETA MAY LIMIT THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF SEVERE STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. NONETHELESS...BOTH MODELS DO AGREE THAT CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ACROSS MAINLY ND...AND POTENTIALLY INTO WRN MN AS A STRENGTHENING LLJ INCREASES WAA FOR ELEVATED STORMS. ...WI/LOWER MI... THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS NERN MN/LAKE SUPERIOR DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY 1 PERIOD...SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE START OF DAY 2 FROM NRN WI INTO CENTRAL ONTARIO. STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS CANADA...WITH THE TRAILING SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT TRACKING ESEWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY. SPEED OF THE SYSTEM MAY LIMIT THE RETURN OF STRONGER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH ISOLATED STRONG WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL ALONG THE FRONT. ...MID ATLANTIC REGION... DESPITE WEAK LAPSE RATES...A MOIST AIR MASS WILL REMAIN ALONG THE COASTAL REGIONS RESULTING IN MODERATE INSTABILITY. WEAK UPPER SUPPORT SHOULD ALLOW FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...WITH ENOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. ...NRN ROCKIES... CONTINUED MOISTENING OF THE LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS FROM DAY 1 CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN HIGHER VALUES OF INSTABILITY FOR THE DAY 2 PERIOD OVER THE NRN ROCKIES. MODERATE SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION WITH A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...THOUGH FORECAST COVERAGE WARRANTS LOW PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME. ..PETERS.. 07/18/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 19 07:30:38 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 19 Jul 2004 02:30:38 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200407190730.i6J7UZX09931@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 190728 SWODY2 SPC AC 190727 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0227 AM CDT MON JUL 19 2004 VALID 201200Z - 211200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM INL EAU 55 NNW LAF DEC 40 SSW IRK OMA FSD JMS 50 NNE MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 NW CMX RHI MKG MTC ...CONT... 40 SSE LCH MCB TOI AHN CLT 35 SE PSK JKL BWG HRO MKO CSM CDS BGS 10 W DRT ...CONT... 45 W FHU 40 WNW SAD PRC 55 NW BLH BFL SAC RBL 4LW BOI GTF 65 ENE HVR. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ON TUESDAY OVER PARTS OF THE MIDWEST STATES... ...MIDWEST STATES... FAST WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY...WITH SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING FROM MT INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. MAIN SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL LIKELY EXTEND FROM EASTERN ND INTO IA/IL...WITH BACKED LOW LEVEL WINDS AND ENHANCED LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ALONG AND NORTH OF FRONT. THIS...COMBINED WITH APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF ND/MN/SD. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT ALONG BOUNDARY INTO PARTS OF IA/IL/MO. A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS FORECAST OVER THIS AREA WITH MLCAPE VALUES OVER 3500 J/KG. ALSO...VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. ...NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... OTHER ISOLATED HIGH-BASED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY OVER PARTS OF MT/WY AND WESTERN SD...WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT. ..HART.. 07/19/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 19 17:32:45 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 19 Jul 2004 12:32:45 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200407191732.i6JHWqX17480@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 191730 SWODY2 SPC AC 191729 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1229 PM CDT MON JUL 19 2004 VALID 201200Z - 211200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM INL 60 S DLH 25 ESE VOK 35 NW CGX 40 NE BMI 30 WNW SPI 10 NNW IRK 25 ESE OMA 15 ESE YKN 35 NNW 9V9 30 NNE MBG 65 NNW DVL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NE CMX 40 N GRB 35 NE MKG 25 NNE MTC ...CONT... 10 WSW GLS 45 SE POE 30 ESE MCB 45 S SEM 35 ENE CSG 10 NNW AHN 25 NNE SPA 40 SSW BLF 25 SSE JKL 45 NW CSV 10 NE HOP 30 SSE BLV 15 ENE JEF 25 SSW OJC 15 NNE P28 60 SW GAG 50 S LBB P07 ...CONT... 45 W FHU 40 WNW SAD PRC 55 NW BLH BFL SAC 35 NW MHS 60 SW RDM 45 SW S80 GTF 65 ENE HVR. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO IL... ...NRN PLAINS TO IL... UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE ROCKIES WILL FLATTEN ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AS SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVE ACROSS MT...THEN TURN SEWD TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY REGION. THESE FEATURES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY WELL DEFINED BUT LIKELY WILL RESULT IN SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR A LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM SD...SEWD INTO IA AND IL WITH WEAK WARM ADVECTION ATOP THIS ZONE DUE TO VEERED FLOW THROUGH MID LEVELS. WLY COMPONENT WILL PROVIDE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT FOR ENHANCED THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES. BY LATE AFTERNOON...MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD EVOLVE WITHIN WARM ADVECTION ZONE WHERE THERE APPEARS TO BE AN ENHANCED PROBABILITY FOR INITIATION JUST EAST OF SFC LOW FROM SRN SD/SRN MN INTO NRN IA. THIS OF COURSE IS PREDICATED ON DAY1 MCS ACTIVITY NOT DISPERSING AVAILABLE INSTABILITY THROUGH EARLY MORNING PRECIPITATION AND RESIDUAL LATE MORNING CLOUD COVER. OTHERWISE...PERSISTENT WARM ADVECTION MAY RESULT IN EPISODIC ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS MAINLY FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. DAMAGING WINDS OR PERHAPS LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS. ..DARROW.. 07/19/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 20 07:34:19 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 20 Jul 2004 02:34:19 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200407200734.i6K7YEX29208@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 200729 SWODY2 SPC AC 200728 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0228 AM CDT TUE JUL 20 2004 VALID 211200Z - 221200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW ROC UNI MVN SZL RSL GLD IML LBF BUB SUX 10 SE RST RHI CMX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSE CTY AYS AHN CHA ARG TUL CSM LBB 35 ESE P07 50 SE DRT COT 50 NNE VCT 20 SSW BPT ...CONT... 25 SSE FHU SOW SGU BIH SAC 10 S RBL 4LW 60 SW BOI TWF JAC BIL 4BQ ATY STC 10 SSE DLH 35 N HIB 40 W INL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION... ...GREAT LAKES REGION... BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL BE PRESENT OVER CENTRAL CANADA ON WEDNESDAY...WITH CYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES STATES. SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER EASTERN MT/WY IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON DAY1...AND INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ETA/GFS SOLUTIONS BOTH SUGGEST THAT A CLUSTER OF CONVECTION MAY BE ONGOING WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER WI AT 21/12Z. THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO RE-INTENSIFY BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AS THEY SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF MI/IL/IN/OH. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND HIGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE VALUES OVER 3500 J/KG ACROSS THIS REGION. THIS COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL PROMOTE SUPERCELL STORM DEVELOPMENT WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE. ...CENTRAL PLAINS... FARTHER WEST...SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND WESTWARD FROM MO/IL INTO NORTHERN KS. A VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG AND NORTH OF BOUNDARY ON WEDNESDAY...WITH A RATHER WEAK CAP. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN KS/NEB AND SPREAD EASTWARD ALONG BOUNDARY DURING THE EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN STRONGER CELLS. ..HART.. 07/20/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 20 17:24:09 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 20 Jul 2004 12:24:09 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200407201724.i6KHO0X01701@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 201722 SWODY2 SPC AC 201720 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1220 PM CDT TUE JUL 20 2004 VALID 211200Z - 221200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW ROC 20 SE HLG 45 SE LUK 35 ENE UIN 20 N SLN 45 SSW EAR 25 N SUX 10 SSW LSE RHI CMX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W EFK 40 WNW GFL 35 SSW IPT 25 NE EKN PSK 45 N RWI 25 SE ORF ...CONT... 60 SSE CTY AYS AHN CHA 15 N ARG 60 N JLN 35 E P28 LBB 35 ESE P07 ...CONT... 65 WNW MFE 50 ENE COT 40 E AUS 30 NNW POE 40 NNW BTR 40 W HUM ...CONT... 45 SW TUS 30 WNW SOW 20 E BCE BIH SAC 10 S RBL 4LW 60 SW BOI 40 E PIH 15 NE MQM BIL 45 NNW RAP ATY STC 10 SSE DLH 35 N HIB 40 W INL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION... ...SYNOPSIS... SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING INTO THE BC/NWRN WA COAST WILL FLATTEN TOP OF RIDGE CURRENTLY PLANTED OVER THE NRN ROCKIES PRIOR TO THE START OF THE PERIOD. A SERIES OF LOWER AMPLITUDE TROUGHS WILL PROCEED THIS SYSTEM...WITH ONE LIKELY SUPPORTING A MCS ALONG NOSE OF SWLY LLJ INTO THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES/NRN PLAINS STATES WILL SHIFT ESEWD TOWARDS THE WRN GREAT LAKES AND SSWWD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY LATE IN THE DAY. ...GREAT LAKES... PRIMARY SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL FOCUS ALONG BOTH MORNING MCS AND ITS ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW AND SURFACE COLD FRONT SHIFTING ESEWD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ETA AND ETAKF CONTINUE TO SUGGEST MCS AND ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW WILL REMAIN ACTIVE INTO THE CENTRAL/SRN GREAT LAKES DURING THE AFTERNOON...AS WEAK VORT MAX SHIFTS EWD. THIS AREA WILL REMAIN ALONG FRINGE OF STRONGER CAPPING AND WITHIN PLUME OF VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER /I.E. SURFACE DEW POINTS AOA 60F/...SUGGESTING A WEAKLY CAPPED YET STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. SHEAR VALUES WILL ALSO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND ORGANIZED LINES. EXPECT DEVELOPMENT WILL SPREAD EWD ACROSS MI WHICH MAY SPREAD AS FAR AS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES DURING THE EVENING. OTHER DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR ALONG OUTFLOW INTO NRN IL/NRN IND/NWRN OH THROUGH THE EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE FEED OF STRONGEST INSTABILITY AND MAY PROPAGATE SSEWD TOWARDS N-CENTRAL KY/SRN OH THROUGH THE EVENING. STRONGEST STORMS WILL PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...ESPECIALLY IF ACTIVITY EVOLVES INTO ONE OR MORE BOW ECHOES. SOME CONCERN REMAINS INTO THE NRN/WRN GREAT LAKES AND NRN MS RIVER VALLEY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...WITH UNCERTAINTIES ABOUT DEGREE OF AIR MASS RECOVERY IN WAKE OF MORNING STORMS. BOTH ETA AND GFS SUGGEST AXIS OF MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY AND WEAK CAPPING WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF FRONT NWD INTO THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY AND WI BY MID AFTERNOON. GIVEN PRESENCE OF SURFACE FRONT AND 35-45 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR...EXPECT AT LEAST A THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS...DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. AN ATTENDANT THREAT OF TORNADOES IS ALSO EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY NEAR TRIPLE POINT OF MORNING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ...CENTRAL PLAINS... CAPPING APPEARS TO WEAKEN ALONG COLD FRONT AS H7 THERMAL RIDGE IS SUPPRESSED SWD AND STRONG HEATING OCCURS BY THE LATE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT FROM IA INTO PARTS OF NEB AND KS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. THOUGH AIR MASS WILL LIKELY BECOME VERY UNSTABLE...DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN MARGINAL. THUS...ISOLATED/BRIEF SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP AS FAR WEST AS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. HOWEVER...PRIMARY THREAT OF ORGANIZED MULTICELLS WILL LIKELY REMAIN NEARER THE MO RIVER VALLEY EWD. ..EVANS.. 07/20/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 21 06:57:43 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 21 Jul 2004 01:57:43 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200407210657.i6L6vXX07102@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 210655 SWODY2 SPC AC 210654 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0154 AM CDT WED JUL 21 2004 VALID 221200Z - 231200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 W ERI MGW BKW TRI BWG MVN COU ICT DDC 35 NNW RSL OMA ALO 60 SE OSC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SSE DRT AUS 10 W GLS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N PIE AYS RMG 65 SSW CKV UNO BVO 55 E AMA MAF P07 ...CONT... 45 WSW FHU PHX 65 S SGU BIH SCK RBL LMT 55 SSE BNO TWF 35 ENE SUN 10 N MSO GTF MLS PIR FSD 10 E FRM VOK OSC ...CONT... 35 WNW EFK MSV 25 ENE ACY. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY... ...MID MS VALLEY INTO UPPER OH VALLEY... LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER CENTRAL CANADA WILL MOVE EASTWARD TO THE HUDSON BAY BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH BROAD CYCLONIC MID LEVEL WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES REGION. MODELS SUGGEST THAT WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM KS INTO NORTHERN OH BY 23/00Z...WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY ALONG AND SOUTH OF BOUNDARY /MLCAPE VALUES OVER 2500 J/KG/. RELATIVELY WEAK CAP SHOULD ALLOW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS AXIS...SPREADING SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS DURING THE EVENING. WIND FIELDS WILL BE MARGINAL FOR CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION /20-30KT AT 500MB/...BUT VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS MAY POSE A RISK OF A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. ...KS/MO... CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER WESTERN KS/EASTERN CO/TX PANHANDLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS COLD FRONT SURGES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. THESE STORMS MAY SPREAD EASTWARD INTO VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN KS AND WESTERN MO. DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL APPEAR POSSIBLE IN STRONGER CELLS. ..HART.. 07/21/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 21 17:36:18 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 21 Jul 2004 12:36:18 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200407211736.i6LHa5X18541@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 211733 SWODY2 SPC AC 211732 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1232 PM CDT WED JUL 21 2004 VALID 221200Z - 231200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNW SBN 20 W FWA 15 SSW IND 20 ENE SLO 45 NE CNU 45 ENE HUT 35 WNW SLN 40 SE HSI 25 SW OMA 15 N DSM 40 ESE JVL 15 NNW SBN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WNW CAR 20 NW MWN 15 NW PSF 25 WNW EWR 25 SW ACY ...CONT... 25 S CRP 50 SE SAT 35 SW CLL 25 SSE MCB 45 NNE MOB 15 E SEM 30 SSW HSV 10 WNW MKL 40 W UNO 35 ESE BVO 35 N FSI 60 NW ABI 30 ESE P07 ...CONT... 70 WSW TUS 15 W FLG 35 SSE CDC 35 S ELY 65 NE TPH 25 WSW TPH 45 NNE NID 65 NNE BFL 20 ESE SAC 55 NW RBL 40 SW MFR 55 NNW MFR 40 SW RDM 50 ENE BNO 40 SSW S80 40 SSE S06 35 NE MSO 50 E HLN 45 NNW SHR 25 NNE GCC CDR 10 N MHN 60 ENE ANW 15 NNW OTG 15 N RST 40 NNW MSN 25 SE MKG DTW. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF KS TO IL... ...CENTRAL PLAINS TO OH VALLEY... STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG SEWD ACROSS CANADA DURING THE DAY2 PERIOD WITH HEIGHT FALLS ONLY GLANCING THE MID MS VALLEY REGION ALONG SRN FRINGES OF STRONGER FLOW ALOFT. RESULTANT SFC PRESSURES WILL BUILD ACROSS THE PLAINS FORCING A SHARP COLD FRONT SEWD INTO KS...NRN MO...CENTRAL IL BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SURGE SOUTH OF ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOW ALOFT BUT LIKELY PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BY PEAK HEATING. FORECAST SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WITHIN MODERATELY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD PROPAGATE SLOWLY SWD...ESPECIALLY AS PRECIPITATION ALONG FRONTAL ZONE ENHANCES SEWD MOVEMENT OF SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT AS RELATIVELY WARM VERTICAL PROFILES DO NOT FAVOR PARTICULARLY LARGE HAIL. ...MIDDLE ATLANTIC... LATE DAY1 ELONGATED MCS SHOULD PROPAGATE EWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY EARLY IN THE DAY2 PERIOD...BUT MOST LIKELY BE NON SEVERE AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE CREST OF THE APPALACHIANS. THIS ACTIVITY MAY POSE A SEVERE THREAT DOWNSTREAM BY 18Z ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AS BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS BENEATH STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR DUE TO OFFSHORE UPPER LOW. IF SUFFICIENT CONVERGENCE CAN HOLD ALONG LEADING EDGE OF OLD CONVECTIVE DEBRIS...ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS ACROSS VA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS AREA WILL BE CONSIDERED FOR A POTENTIAL UPGRADE AT 06Z DAY1 UPDATE AS WED EVENING MCS SHOULD HAVE EVOLVED OVER THE OH VALLEY BY THIS TIME AND MORE CONFIDENCE WILL EXIST IN THE AFOREMENTIONED SCENARIO. ..DARROW.. 07/21/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 22 17:28:36 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 22 Jul 2004 12:28:36 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200407221728.i6MHSIX06937@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 221726 SWODY2 SPC AC 221724 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1224 PM CDT THU JUL 22 2004 VALID 231200Z - 241200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WSW GLS 40 NNW BPT 10 SSE ESF 45 NNE HEZ 50 W GLH 40 NNE TXK 25 S DUA 20 NNW SEP 50 NNE JCT HDO 20 SSE CRP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ESE YUM 30 ESE IGM PGA MLF 65 NW P38 35 SSW TPH 55 S BIH 25 WNW FAT 30 NNW SAC 50 WNW MHS 45 S EUG 60 ESE DLS 40 WNW S06 20 ESE FCA 30 SSE GTF 25 E COD 20 NW DGW 25 E CYS 45 SE LIC 35 NNW GCK 25 E MHK 15 ENE COU 50 SSW HUF 10 S DAY 10 SW CAK 20 N BFD 45 SW ART. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... UNUSUALLY STRONG SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD SEWD ACROSS ALL BUT THE GULF COAST STATES/ATLANTIC COAST BY LATE DAY2 IN THE WAKE OF CANADIAN UPPER TROUGH. LEADING EDGE OF THIS AIRMASS SHOULD PROVIDE THE ONLY MEANINGFUL FOCUS FOR POTENTIAL STRONG CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ...TN VALLEY TO SRN PLAINS... LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE APPEARS TO HAVE A REASONABLE HANDLE ON SURGING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE WELL SOUTH OF STRONGER FLOW ALOFT INTO SLOWLY WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE AXIS. RAPID BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING SHOULD AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE STRONGER INSTABILITY ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR...DESPITE THE SHALLOW NATURE OF THE FRONTAL ZONE AND THE TENDENCY FOR POST FRONTAL THUNDERSTORMS. PROFILES SUGGEST A FEW STORMS MAY GENERATE LOCALLY STRONG WINDS BUT SHOULD NOT BE PARTICULARLY EFFICIENT IN GENERATING HAIL. ...CAROLINAS TO UPSTATE NY... ADVANCING COLD FRONT ALONG SRN INFLUENCE OF UPPER TROUGH SHOULD ENHANCE CONVERGENCE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EARLY IN THE PERIOD FROM UPSTATE NY INTO PA. FORECAST VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG THUS MULTI-CELL CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS MAY STRUGGLE TO OBTAIN ORGANIZED SEVERE LEVELS...ESPECIALLY IF SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER PREVENTS BOUNDARY LAYER FROM DESTABILIZING SUFFICIENTLY. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WITH THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG BOTH THE COLD FRONT AND FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE LEE TROUGH INTO THE CAROLINAS. ..DARROW.. 07/22/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 23 06:31:06 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 23 Jul 2004 01:31:06 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200407230630.i6N6UlX22193@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 230628 SWODY2 SPC AC 230627 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0127 AM CDT FRI JUL 23 2004 VALID 241200Z - 251200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 ESE YUM 45 NW GBN 55 SSE FLG 55 SSE PGA 50 E MLF 55 SW DPG 35 WSW ELY 50 SE NFL 30 ESE BIH 15 ENE FAT 35 E SAC 40 ESE RBL 35 E MHS 45 WSW MHS 25 E 4BK 20 SSW SLE 45 SE SEA 45 ENE BLI ...CONT... 50 WNW CTB 20 WNW GTF 45 NNE BIL 25 NW GCC 30 SW PHP 40 N BUB 35 SSW HSI 15 SE TOP 30 NNW HRO 50 WSW MEM 25 W BHM 15 NW AHN 35 NNE SPA 30 W BKW 25 NNW EKN 15 SSE CXY 25 NNW BDR 15 WNW HYA ...CONT... 20 SW LCH 40 NW POE 15 E GGG 45 NW TYR 15 SSW SEP 25 NE JCT 30 SSE DRT. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... A FAIRLY BENIGN SEVERE PATTERN EXPECTED ACROSS THE LWR 48 ON SATURDAY. WEAK RIDGES WILL PREVAIL OVER THE SERN STATES AND CA/NV...WITH THE MAIN BELT OF THE WLYS CONFINED TO CNTRL/ERN CANADA. A WEAK SRN STREAM JET WILL EXTEND FROM SWRN CANADA SE ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE RCKYS AND THE CNTRL PLNS. A DISTURBANCE IN THIS FLOW...ATTM OVER ID/WRN MT...SHOULD SETTLE SE ACROSS WY/NRN CO AND THE CNTRL HI PLNS ON SATURDAY. AT LWR LEVELS...DIFFUSE FRONT MARKING SRN EDGE OF EXPANSIVE SURFACE ANTICYCLONE DEVELOPING/ELONGATING SWD ACROSS THE PLNS/MS VLY AND NERN STATES SHOULD REACH AN E TX/TN VLY/ERN CAROLINAS AXIS BY LATE SATURDAY. ...WY/CO... DIFFERENTIAL HEATING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WY AND CNTRL/NW CO LIKELY TO RESULT IN AFTERNOON STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THESE AREAS AS SLUGGISH LOW LEVEL FLOW REGIME MAINTAINS AMPLE SUPPLY OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE. LARGE SCALE ASCENT/DESTABILIZATION ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED UPPER IMPULSE MAY SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS/STORM CLUSTERS AS DEEP WNWLY SHEAR INCREASES TO AOA 30 KT. THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS...HOWEVER...SHOULD BE LIMITED TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND/MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AS MEAN MLCAPE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BLO 1000 J/KG. ELY LOW LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH CNTRL STATES SURFACE RIDGE MAY BOOST UPSLOPE COMPONENT ACROSS ERN WY/CO...AND ALLOW STORMS TO SPREAD EWD OFF THE MOUNTAINS. BUT STORM STRENGTH WILL LIKELY BE MITIGATED BY LOW CLOUDS/MORE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS OVER THE PLNS. ..CORFIDI.. 07/23/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 23 17:35:23 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 23 Jul 2004 12:35:23 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200407231735.i6NHZ2X15080@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 231732 SWODY2 SPC AC 231731 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1231 PM CDT FRI JUL 23 2004 VALID 241200Z - 251200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 ESE YUM 75 ENE BLH 30 NNE PRC 15 WSW PGA 50 E MLF 55 SW DPG 50 WNW ELY 45 NNW TPH 30 ESE BIH 15 ENE FAT 35 NNW SAC 30 WNW RBL 30 NE 4BK 25 SSE ONP 25 E OLM 45 ENE BLI ...CONT... 50 NNW FCA 45 NE 3DU 45 E LVM 20 WNW GCC 60 ENE DGW 20 SSW AIA 40 SSW IML 50 E LAA EHA 45 SSE LBL 25 NNE GAG 30 WSW HUT 30 ENE CNK 10 NNW FNB 25 SW P35 20 NW COU 35 W POF 25 S DYR 10 NW 0A8 35 S ANB 15 W RMG 30 NNW CHA 35 SSW LOZ 25 NNW SHD 40 ENE CXY 15 S CON 40 SSE HUL. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...CENTRAL ROCKIES... UPPER RIDGE HAS SHIFTED INTO THE SWRN U.S. AS NWLY FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. AT THE SFC...DOMINANT HIGH PRESSURE HAS WEDGED AGAINST THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND SHOULD BE RELUCTANT TO ERODE EAST WITH RIDGE AXIS NOT EXPECTED TO SHIFT OUT OF CO INTO KS UNTIL EARLY EVENING. COOL ELY LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD PREVENT SIGNIFICANT BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION DURING THE DAY2 PERIOD BUT SHOULD MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG/WEST OF THE FRONT RANGE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY LATE AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS SBCAPE VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE ON THE ORDER OF 500-800J/KG WITHIN MARGINAL LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT...ROUGHLY 6C/KM. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THIS REGION INDICATE MORE THAN ADEQUATE DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS...HOWEVER MARGINAL INSTABILITY MAY ULTIMATELY LIMIT THE OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL. ..DARROW.. 07/23/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 24 07:04:48 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 24 Jul 2004 02:04:48 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200407240704.i6O74PX09314@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 240701 SWODY2 SPC AC 240700 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0200 AM CDT SAT JUL 24 2004 VALID 251200Z - 261200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW ALS 30 ENE ASE 35 NW FCL 10 WNW BFF 30 E SNY 30 W GLD 55 S LAA 25 S RTN 25 NNW ALS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW IPL 40 W PRC 25 SW U17 25 SE PUC 30 WSW SLC 30 SE BAM 65 NW BIH 30 WSW TVL 25 SW SVE 15 NNW RBL 30 E EKA 20 ENE 4BK 35 SSE EUG 40 NNW RDM 15 N YKM 35 NNW 4OM ...CONT... 40 NW HVR 50 SE LWT 20 S GCC 45 SE RAP LBF 20 ESE GCK 60 SSW LBL 50 SW AMA 45 NW BGS 45 S ABI 25 NE MWL 50 ENE PRX 20 N LIT 35 SSW CGI 10 E SDF 30 NNE CRW 25 W CXY 10 E NEL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL RCKYS AND CNTRL HI PLNS... ...SYNOPSIS... WEAK FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE OVER THE LWR 48 ON SUNDAY AS RIDGING PERSISTS OVER THE SERN AND SWRN STATES...AND THE MAIN BELT OF THE WLYS REMAINS CONFINED TO CNTRL/SRN CANADA. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WLY FLOW IS EXPECTED...HOWEVER...OVER THE PACIFIC NW...ON SRN FRINGE OF STRONG IMPULSE CROSSING NRN BC/AB. A SLIGHT STRENGTHENING OF W TO NW FLOW WILL ALSO LIKELY OCCUR OVER THE CNTRL RCKYS/CNTRL PLNS AS EXISTING TROUGH AMPLIFIES IN RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE RIDGING DOWNSTREAM FROM BC/AB DISTURBANCE. FAIRLY STRONG SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IN NW CANADA ASSOCIATED WITH BC/AB TROUGH WILL BE REFLECTED BY INCREASED LEE TROUGHING OVER THE NRN/CNTRL HI PLNS IN THE U.S. OTHERWISE...EXPANSIVE SURFACE RIDGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SETTLE S ACROSS THE SRN PLNS...AND REMAIN STATIONARY FROM THE MID MS VLY TO NEW ENG. ...CNTRL HI PLNS... DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO FORM IN RESPONSE TO DIFFERENTIAL HEATING OVER THE CO/SRN WY RCKYS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...ALONG ERN PERIPHERY OF SWRN STATES RIDGE. AMPLE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD BE PRESENT OVER REGION TO SUPPORT SUSTAINED ACTIVITY GIVEN EXISTING MOISTURE ALREADY IN PLACE...AND MINIMAL AIR MASS CHANGE EXPECTED BETWEEN NOW AND SUNDAY. SLIGHT STRENGTHENING OF NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW...COUPLED WITH WEAK SELY UPSLOPE FLOW AT THE SURFACE...WILL RESULT IN A BAND OF 40 KT DEEP NWLY SHEAR OVER THE ERN HALF OF CO. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW ROTATING STORMS WITH HAIL/HIGH WIND GIVEN STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. AT THE SAME TIME...CONTINUED SWD MOTION OF CNTRL PLNS RIDGE SHOULD ALLOW FOR INCREASED HEATING/LOW LEVEL DESTABILIZATION JUST E OF THE MOUNTAINS RELATIVE TO TODAY. COUPLED WITH MODERATE NWLY DEEP SHEAR...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR STORMS TO SPREAD SEWD OFF THE MOUNTAINS LATER IN THE DAY. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY CONSOLIDATE INTO A S- OR SSE-MOVING MCS OVER SRN CO/NRN NM SATURDAY NIGHT. ...INTERIOR PAC NW... A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP WITH AFTERNOON HEATING OVER PARTS OF ERN WA/ERN ORE/ID AND WRN MT...WHERE MODEL AND STLT DATA SUGGEST THAT A WEAK IMPULSE WILL TRACK EWD ALONG SRN FRINGE OF FAST WLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH BC/AB DISTURBANCE. ..CORFIDI.. 07/24/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 24 17:27:41 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 24 Jul 2004 12:27:41 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200407241727.i6OHRHX20549@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 241725 SWODY2 SPC AC 241724 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1224 PM CDT SAT JUL 24 2004 VALID 251200Z - 261200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE ALS 35 WSW COS DEN 35 NNW LIC 15 SSE LIC LHX 40 ESE TAD 40 SSE RTN 30 N LVS 40 SE ALS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NE CTB 3HT 35 SE WRL DGW BFF IML 10 WNW EHA 45 ENE CVS LBB 40 SSW SPS 35 NNW ADM BVO SGF CGI 45 SW CMH 30 SE MGW PSB 20 S JFK ...CONT... 25 WSW IPL IGM CDC 45 SSE ELY 65 NE TPH 50 WNW BIH 40 WSW TVL RBL 30 E EKA 20 ESE 4BK 35 SSE EUG 45 N RDM 45 WNW ALW 30 NNW 63S. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FRONT RANGE OF CO AND NERN NM... ...SYNOPSIS... AREA OF LOW PRESSURE/TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL SLOWLY AMPLIFY AND SHIFT EWD INTO THE MID MO RIVER VALLEY...IN RESPONSE TO A STRONGER TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE INTO THE PACIFIC NW/BRITISH COLUMBIA. WEAK FLOW WILL COVER MUCH OF THE CONUS... THOUGH THE WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY IN PACIFIC NW AND IN THE CENTRAL ROCKIES/PLAINS ON THE BACKSIDE OF CENTRAL U.S.TROUGH. COLD FRONT FROM TX EWD INTO THE CAROLINAS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SLOWLY SWD...AS EXPANSIVE SURFACE RIDGE FROM THE SRN PLAINS NEWD INTO NERN U.S. BUILD SLOWLY SWD. ...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS... AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EWD OF CO...BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BECOME SELY AND AID IN MAINTAINING MID 50 DEGREE DEWPOINTS. DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD AID THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN RESPONSE TO DIFFERENTIAL HEATING. HOWEVER...STORMS MAY HAVE SOME DIFFICULTY MOVING INTO THE PLAINS...AS MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER/SELY UPSLOPE FLOW MAY MAINTAIN LOW CLOUDS MOST OF THE DAY. STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL HAVE SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS...AS STRENGTHENING NWLY MID LEVEL WINDS COUPLED WITH SELY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL RESULT IN 40 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THE SHEAR AND MLCAPES NEAR 1000 J/KG WILL SUPPORT A FEW ROTATING STORMS WITH HAIL/HIGH WIND. STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE EWD INTO THE PLAINS AND ENCOUNTER A MORE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. ...SRN AZ... MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY. MID LEVEL NELY FLOW IS FORECAST TO INCREASE ACROSS SRN AZ AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS BETWEEN THE UPPER HIGH OVER CA AND THE TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY. IF CLOUDS DO NOT INHIBIT DESTABILIZATION/HEATING...STORMS SHOULD BE ABLE TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND THEN MOVE WWD ACROSS THE DESERTS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH A POSSIBILITY OF STRONG WIND GUSTS. ...GULF COASTAL STATES... STRONG HEATING IS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT...RESULTING IN MLCAPES FROM 2500 TO 3500 J/KG. THE FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO BE VERY WEAK WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 10 KT. HOWEVER...THE STRONG INSTABILITY WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW BRIEF HAIL/WIND EVENTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ...INTERIOR PAC NW... A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP WITH AFTERNOON HEATING OVER PARTS OF THE AREA AS STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW/UPPER TROUGH BRUSHES THE AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGESTIVE OF AN ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUST OR TWO. ..IMY.. 07/24/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 25 07:32:50 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 25 Jul 2004 02:32:50 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200407250732.i6P7WPX14951@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 250729 SWODY2 SPC AC 250728 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0228 AM CDT SUN JUL 25 2004 VALID 261200Z - 271200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 NW DVL 10 W BIS 15 W 9V9 20 NE IML 25 N LBL 25 NNW AMA 10 S PVW 20 WNW ABI 35 E TPL 40 NNW POE 50 W JAN 20 WNW CBM 45 WSW BNA 35 NNW HOP 10 N MDH 35 N ALN 25 ENE PIA 20 NE CGX FNT 95 NNW ERI 35 ESE BUF 20 NNW IPT 30 NNE HGR DCA 15 E SBY ...CONT... 30 NNW SAN 55 W EED 60 W GCN 50 SSE U17 40 S CNY 35 SW PUC 40 W U24 70 NE TPH 40 ESE SVE 30 NNW RBL 40 ESE CEC 30 NNE MFR 50 ENE BNO 55 ENE S80 15 SW S06 10 ENE GEG 15 S 63S 50 NE 63S. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... PATTERN WILL BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE CYCLONIC ACROSS THE LWR 48 ON MONDAY AS /1/ SWRN STATES RIDGE RETREATS W OFF THE CA CST.../2/ SERN U.S. RIDGE IS SUPPRESSED BY CONTINUED AMPLIFICATION/ PROGRESSION OF TROUGH NOW EVOLVING OVER THE CNTRL PLNS AND /3/ STRONG IMPULSE CROSSING BC/AB LATER TODAY CONTINUES E/SE INTO SASKATCHEWAN. AT LWR LEVELS...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH SASKATCHEWAN SYSTEM SHOULD DROP S TO THE AB/MT BORDER LATE MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY AS PREFRONTAL/LEE TROUGH REACHES FAR WRN ND. IN THE EAST...GRADUAL DEEPENING OF UPPER TROUGH LIKELY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY WEAK CYCLOGENESIS/INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPMENT OVER THE OH VLY. ...NRN RCKYS... SCATTERED DIURNAL STORMS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF ID/WRN MT AND WY ON MONDAY...WHERE STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL EXIST BENEATH 20-25 KT WLY MID LEVEL FLOW ALONG SRN FRINGE OF AB/ SASKATCHEWAN UPPER IMPULSE. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...AND WILL KEEP CONVECTION HIGH-BASED. BUT COMBINATION OF MODEST UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW AND INVERTED-VEE ENVIRONMENT MAY ALLOW STORMS TO ORGANIZE INTO A FEW SMALL FORWARD-PROPAGATING CLUSTERS WITH GUSTY WINDS. LATER IN THE PERIOD...A FEW STRONG STORMS ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH AB/SASKATCHEWAN DISTURBANCE MAY CLIP NW MT. WHILE AMPLE DEEP SHEAR WILL EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS...UNFAVORABLE TIME OF DAY AND LIMITED DEGREE OF CONVERGENCE SHOULD KEEP ANY SUCH ACTIVITY ISOLATED. ...NRN/CNTRL HI PLNS... BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL INCREASE INVOF LEE TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL AND NRN HI PLNS ON MONDAY AS SLY FLOW STRENGTHENS IN RESPONSE TO SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS OVER SASKATCHEWAN. THIS WILL ENHANCE CHANCE FOR STORM INITIATION ALONG LEE TROUGH IN ERN CO/WY...WHERE AMPLE /35-40 KT/ DEEP NWLY SHEAR WILL EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS. BUT INCREASING WLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO LIKELY STRENGTHEN CAP. THUS...OVERALL THREAT IN THIS REGION APPEARS QUITE CONDITIONAL AND TOO LOW ATTM TO WARRANT A CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK OF SEVERE. ...AZ... MODEST NLY FLOW ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN POTENTIAL FOR SWD PROPAGATION OF DIURNAL STORMS FORMING ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM INTO THE LOWER DESERTS. HOWEVER...SETUP DOES NOT APPEAR CONDUCIVE TO UPSCALE DEVELOPMENT INTO STRONG/ORGANIZED CLUSTERS. ..CORFIDI.. 07/25/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 25 17:15:25 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 25 Jul 2004 12:15:25 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200407251714.i6PHEvX21801@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 251713 SWODY2 SPC AC 251712 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1212 PM CDT SUN JUL 25 2004 VALID 261200Z - 271200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 N MOT PHP IML DHT 30 ESE CVS 40 NW BGS SJT AUS CLL 35 SSW TXK PBF DYR MVN 25 SE SPI MMO 25 S MKG FNT 30 NNW BUF ART 50 NE UCA ALB POU JFK ...CONT... 10 W CZZ TRM EED SGU 50 WNW MLF NFL 35 SW MHS MFR 50 SSE BKE S80 3TH 65 NW FCA. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...IS FORECAST TO BE EJECTED ENEWD THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY ...AS A STRONGER TROUGH DROPS SEWD FROM SASKATCHEWAN INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER MUCH OF THE NATION EAST OF THE ROCKIES...THOUGH WEAK LOW PRESSURE/INVERTED TROUGH WILL DEVELOP IN THE OH VALLEY...AND A COLD FRONT SHOULD DROP SEWD INTO MT LATE IN THE PERIOD. ...AZ... MODELS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF THE PAST FEW DAYS. THIS INCLUDES AMPLE MID LEVEL MOISTURE/DIURNAL HEATING FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH NELY MID LEVEL WINDS PUSHING THE CONVECTION SWWD INTO THE DESERT FLOORS BY LATE AFTERNOON. WILL ONLY ISSUE LOW PROBABILITIES ATTM AS CONVECTION TONIGHT MAY RESULT IN REMNANT CLOUD COVER AND WEAKEN LAPSE RATES. ...ERN WY/ AND WRN NEB/SD... BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AS LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS WEST OF AREA. SMALL HIGH LEVEL VORT MAX...EMBEDDED IN HIGH LEVEL FLOW...SHOULD MOVE EWD THROUGH ID TODAY AND INTO WY ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INITIATE HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS OVER WY MONDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER SO STRONG WIND GUSTS WOULD BE POSSIBLE. AS THESE STORMS MOVE INTO WRN NEB/SD MONDAY EVENING...THEY WILL ENCOUNTER A MORE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH 30-40 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR. HOWEVER...INCREASING WLY FLOW ABOUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL RAISE 700 MB TEMPERATURES 4-5C FROM TODAY. THESE WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL STRENGTHEN THE CAP AND COULD INHIBIT STORMS FROM TAPPING INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS...ONLY MINIMAL SEVERE PROBABILITIES FORECAST ATTM. ...MT... A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON IN SASKATCHEWAN AND THEN SPREAD INTO MT MONDAY NIGHT. WHILE DEEP SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR STORM ORGANIZATION...UNFAVORABLE TIME OF DAY AND A RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL UNTIL THE NEXT DAY. ...CENTRAL GULF COASTAL STATES NEWD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY... WITH DIURNAL HEATING...THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION ALONG AND AHEAD OF SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT. INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BE MUCH WEAKER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS...SO THREAT FOR SEVERE SHOULD BE VERY LOW. ..IMY.. 07/25/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 25 17:19:39 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 25 Jul 2004 12:19:39 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200407251719.i6PHJSX23087@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 251717 SWODY2 SPC AC 251716 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1216 PM CDT SUN JUL 25 2004 VALID 261200Z - 271200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 N MOT PHP IML DHT 30 ESE CVS 40 NW BGS SJT AUS CLL 35 SSW TXK PBF DYR MVN 25 SE SPI MMO 25 S MKG FNT 30 NNW BUF ART 50 NE UCA ALB POU JFK ...CONT... 10 W CZZ TRM EED SGU 50 WNW MLF NFL 35 SW MHS MFR 50 SSE BKE S80 3TH 65 NW FCA. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...IS FORECAST TO BE EJECTED ENEWD THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY ...AS A STRONGER TROUGH DROPS SEWD FROM SASKATCHEWAN INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER MUCH OF THE NATION EAST OF THE ROCKIES...THOUGH WEAK LOW PRESSURE/INVERTED TROUGH WILL DEVELOP IN THE OH VALLEY...AND A COLD FRONT SHOULD DROP SEWD INTO MT LATE IN THE PERIOD. ...AZ... MODELS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF THE PAST FEW DAYS. THIS INCLUDES AMPLE MID LEVEL MOISTURE/DIURNAL HEATING FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH NELY MID LEVEL WINDS PUSHING THE CONVECTION SWWD INTO THE DESERT FLOORS BY LATE AFTERNOON. WILL ONLY ISSUE LOW PROBABILITIES ATTM AS CONVECTION TONIGHT MAY RESULT IN REMNANT CLOUD COVER AND WEAKEN LAPSE RATES. ...ERN WY/ AND WRN NEB/SD... BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AS LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS WEST OF AREA. SMALL HIGH LEVEL VORT MAX...EMBEDDED IN HIGH LEVEL FLOW...SHOULD MOVE EWD THROUGH ID TODAY AND INTO WY ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INITIATE HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS OVER WY MONDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER SO STRONG WIND GUSTS WOULD BE POSSIBLE. AS THESE STORMS MOVE INTO WRN NEB/SD MONDAY EVENING...THEY WILL ENCOUNTER A MORE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH 30-40 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR. HOWEVER...INCREASING WLY FLOW ABOUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL RAISE 700 MB TEMPERATURES 4-5C FROM TODAY. THESE WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL STRENGTHEN THE CAP AND COULD INHIBIT STORMS FROM TAPPING INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS...ONLY MINIMAL SEVERE PROBABILITIES FORECAST ATTM. ...MT... A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON IN SASKATCHEWAN AND THEN SPREAD INTO MT MONDAY NIGHT. WHILE DEEP SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR STORM ORGANIZATION...UNFAVORABLE TIME OF DAY AND A RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL UNTIL THE NEXT DAY. ...CENTRAL GULF COASTAL STATES NEWD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY... WITH DIURNAL HEATING...THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION ALONG AND AHEAD OF SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT. INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BE MUCH WEAKER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS...SO THREAT FOR SEVERE SHOULD BE VERY LOW. ..IMY.. 07/25/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 26 07:34:35 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 26 Jul 2004 02:34:35 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200407260734.i6Q7Y5X03625@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 260731 SWODY2 SPC AC 260730 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0230 AM CDT MON JUL 26 2004 VALID 271200Z - 281200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW RRT 40 ENE ABR 20 E ANW 30 NW IML 10 SSE BFF 25 NNW CPR 55 ENE COD 30 SE 4BQ 35 SE DIK 50 NNE MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 N BML 35 SE AUG ...CONT... 40 E INL 30 NW RWF 15 SE OLU 20 NNW HUT 20 WNW OKC 20 NNE FTW 30 SW LFK 10 N BTR 15 N SEM 20 W HSS 25 ENE CRW 20 ENE CMH 10 W DAY 30 ESE SBN 35 SE OSC 160 NNW BUF ...CONT... 20 SE IPL 30 E EED 40 SSE PGA 30 SSW 4HV 30 SW U24 35 N DPG 20 WNW RKS 25 SSE RIW 30 ENE WEY 25 NNW 27U 50 S S06 45 NE 63S. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE NRN PLNS... ...SYNOPSIS... A BROAD CYCLONIC PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LWR 48 ON TUESDAY AS POTENT UPPER SYSTEM NOW ENTERING AB CONTINUES E/SE ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN INTO MANITOBA. AT THE SAME TIME...TROUGH NOW OVER THE MID MS VLY EXPECTED TO FURTHER AMPLIFY AS IT CONTINUES SLOWLY E/NE UP THE OH VLY. FARTHER S...A WEAK...CYCLONICALLY-CURVED SRN BANACH JET WILL EXTEND FROM THE SRN GRT BASIN ACROSS THE SRN PLNS TO THE LWR MS VLY. AT LWR LEVELS...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH SASKATCHEWAN SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM NRN MT INTO WY AND THE DAKS DURING THE PERIOD...WHILE LEE TROUGH NOW OVER THE NRN/CNTRL HI PLNS PROGRESSES E INTO THE DAKS/CNTRL NEB. IN THE EAST...WEAK LOW NEARLY COLOCATED WITH OH VLY UPPER TROUGH EXPECTED TO EDGE ONLY SLOWLY E FROM OH INTO WRN PA/NY AS ATTENDANT WARM FRONT LIFTS N ACROSS MD/DE. ...NRN PLNS... THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO FORM WITH AFTERNOON HEATING INVOF COLD FRONT SRN MT AND NRN/CNTRL WY...WHERE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY /MLCAPE OF 500 TO 1000 J PER KG/ AND 35-40 KT DEEP SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT TO SUPPORT SUSTAINED ACTIVITY/POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS. STORMS MAY ALSO FORM IN MORE STRONGLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT ALONG PREFRONTAL TROUGH IN THE DAKOTAS...WRN/CNTRL NEB AND ERN CO. GREATER INSTABILITY WILL EXIST IN THIS REGION RELATIVE TO POINTS FARTHER W /MLCAPE TO 2000 J PER KG/...BUT DEEP SHEAR WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK /RANGING FROM AROUND 15 KTS IN CO TO 25 KTS IN ND/. HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SUSTAINED STORMS... ESPECIALLY IN SRN MT/WY...AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO COULD OCCUR IN THE DAKOTAS. OVERALL PATTERN DOES NOT...HOWEVER...APPEAR SUPPORTIVE OF WIDESPREAD SEVERE. WHILE GLANCING INFLUENCE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS SRN CANADA MAY ALLOW SOME OF THE ACTIVITY TO CONSOLIDATE INTO A CLUSTER OR TWO THAT PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WEAKNESS OF DEEP SHEAR AND ABSENCE OF RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE SUGGEST THAT ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN LIMITED. ...UPR OH VLY TO MID ATL CST... A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL EXIST TUESDAY AFTERNOON IF SURFACE HEATING CAN OCCUR IN AREA E/SE OF SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH OH VLY UPPER TROUGH. WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND SLOW RETREAT OF MODIFIED POLAR AIR MASS NOW IN PLACE OVER REGION WILL LIKELY LIMIT LOW LEVEL DESTABILIZATION ALONG AND N OF WARM FRONT...WHERE FAVORABLE MOISTURE/KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT /LOW LCLS...CONSIDERABLE LOW LEVEL VEERING...SFC TO 1 KM SHEAR AOA 25 KTS/ WILL EXIST. SEVERE THREAT WILL BE CONDITIONAL ON PRESENCE OF BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR LOW LEVEL DESTABILIZATION/STEEPENING OF BOUNDARY LAYER LAPSE RATES. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY REGARDING DEGREE OF SUNSHINE...A CATEGORICAL SEVERE OUTLOOK SEEMS UNJUSTIFIED ATTM. ..CORFIDI.. 07/26/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 26 17:15:50 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 26 Jul 2004 12:15:50 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200407261715.i6QHFJX13987@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 261712 SWODY2 SPC AC 261711 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1211 PM CDT MON JUL 26 2004 VALID 271200Z - 281200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM RRT FAR ATY 10 SE YKN 20 N BUB MHN 10 ESE CDR 20 W RAP REJ DIK 65 NNW DVL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE IPL 30 E EED 20 N P38 ELY EKO 10 ESE TWF 10 SSE 27U 10 N PUW 35 NNW 4OM ...CONT... 10 N INL AXN OTG HSI RSL 15 SSE END FSI MWL 30 SW LFK 25 ESE ESF 20 NNW MEI HSV CSV 10 N JKL 10 W DAY 35 W TOL 35 SE OSC 160 NNW BUF ...CONT... 35 NNW BML 40 N AUG 15 SW BHB. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TUESDAY AFTN/EVE ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS.... WEAK...BROADLY CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. SEVERAL SMALLER SCALE TROUGHS/CLOSED LOWS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS REGIME...AND MODELS SUGGEST THESE FEATURES WILL REMAIN SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE. MOST SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM MAY BE ONE NOW DIGGING IN THE LEE OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. THIS TROUGH/MID-LEVEL CLOSED LOW IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE SLOWLY DIGGING SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE NORTH CENTRAL CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER THROUGH LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE TURNING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CANADIAN PROVINCES TUESDAY NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...UPPER TROUGH IN WEAK SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES IS PROGGED TO DIG ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS STATES...WHILE A DOWNSTREAM CLOSED LOW/UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. ...NORTHERN PLAINS... PRE-FRONTAL LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE/SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BECOME FOCUS FOR DESTABILIZATION TUESDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE DAKOTAS. WHILE RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE WILL NOT OCCUR...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ALREADY PRESENT...WITH LOWER/ MID 50S DEW POINTS...SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. STRONG DAYTIME HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A RATHER DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...WITH CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG BY LATE AFTERNOON. WHILE THIS IS NOT PARTICULARLY EXCESSIVE...LARGE LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT FOR DOWNBURSTS. DAMAGING WIND THREAT MAY BE ENHANCED BY DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF MOMENTUM ASSOCIATED WITH 20 TO 30 KT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET NEAR/JUST AHEAD OF SURFACE TROUGH AXIS. STRONGER MID/UPPER FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH DIGGING TROUGH COULD SPREAD AS FAR SOUTH AS THE DAKOTAS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT PRIMARY FORCING FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY TO BE DAYTIME HEATING TO CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES. THUS...IT APPEARS STORMS DEVELOPING IN SURFACE TROUGH/JUST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT LIKELY WILL WEAKEN EARLY TUESDAY EVENING WITH ONSET OF RADIATIONAL COOLING. HOWEVER...AS LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION BECOMES ENHANCED ON NOSE OF SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE BENEATH WEAK DIFLUENT UPPER FLOW REGIME. SHEAR WILL BE LIMITED...BUT MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY BECOME STEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL THREAT INTO THE NIGHT. ...SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES... THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME FAIRLY NUMEROUS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH...ACROSS PARTS OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES. WITH RELATIVELY COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES CONTRIBUTING TO STEEP LAPSE RATES...THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT MAY BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW VIGOROUS STORMS WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND ISOLATED MICROBURSTS. ...EASTERN U.S... SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ALONG/AHEAD OF MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS TRAILING FROM CLOSED LOW LIFTING INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. THOUGH FLOW FIELDS/SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE MODERATE IN STRENGTH NEAR/EAST OF MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION... EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO MINIMIZE SEVERE THREAT. WARM MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT/WEAK LAPSE RATES WILL ALSO LIMIT CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY SOUTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN GULF AND SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES. ..KERR.. 07/26/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 27 07:34:27 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 27 Jul 2004 02:34:27 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200407270733.i6R7XsX07011@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 270732 SWODY2 SPC AC 270731 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0231 AM CDT TUE JUL 27 2004 VALID 281200Z - 291200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ENE STC 45 NNE RST 35 NW CNK 45 E LBL 45 SE LAA 30 SE AKO 25 NNW FCL 20 E CPR 10 WNW ANW 35 SSW AXN 50 ENE STC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 NNW ANJ 30 NE GRB 15 NNE DBQ 35 SW DSM 25 ENE MHK 30 S JLN 30 SW LIT 10 N ESF 40 N GPT 25 WSW AUO 30 SW AVL 30 S AOO 30 WSW ELM 30 NNW BUF ...CONT... 45 ENE CTB MLS 50 SE REJ 30 NNE PIR 40 NE ABR 30 SSE DVL 25 S MOT 55 NNW ISN ...CONT... 80 WSW TUS 40 ESE GBN 35 ESE IGM 20 WSW GCN 80 WNW GUP CEZ 15 S EGE 30 N CAG 30 W JAC 60 NE BOI 30 SSW BNO 40 W SVE 35 WSW RBL 30 ENE 4BK 45 NW DLS 55 ENE BLI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL PLNS/LWR MO VLY... ...SYNOPSIS... BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE HEIGHTS REBOUND SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. UPPER SYSTEM WHICH WILL GLANCE THE DAKOTAS LATER TODAY SHOULD LIFT NE TOWARD HUDSON BAY ON WEDNESDAY AS UPSTREAM IMPULSE DROPS SE INTO SASKATCHEWAN. IN THE EAST...TROUGH NOW OVER THE OH VLY EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT LIFTS E/NE ACROSS THE LWR GRT LKS/NRN APLCNS. FARTHER S...A BROAD LOW LATITUDE TROUGH IS EVOLVING ATTM IN WEAK SRN STREAM JET OVER THE SRN GRT BASIN/SRN RCKYS. THE TROUGH SHOULD CONTINUE SLOWLY E INTO THE SRN PLNS BY LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY. AT LWR LEVELS...A SERIES OF WEAKENING COLD FRONTS WILL USHER COOLER/DRIER AIR TO THE NRN RCKYS/PLNS. THE SRN-MOST FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM ERN ND THROUGH CNTRL SD/NW NEB AND ERN WY AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. FARTHER S..SURFACE PATTERN WILL PROBABLY BECOME COMPLICATED BY A SERIES OF WEAKER SURGES/LEE TROUGH SEGMENTS WHICH WILL TEND TO MOVE E/SE ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN PLNS IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED WLY FLOW/SRN STREAM DISTURBANCES. ...CNTRL PLNS/LWR MO VLY... MAIN COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH CANADIAN UPPER IMPULSE SHOULD SETTLE SE ACROSS MN/ERN SD/NEB AND SE WY ON WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT...AND ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM DAY 1 CONVECTION...WILL SERVE AS MAIN FOCUS FOR DIURNAL STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE N CNTRL STATES. THE GREATEST SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY...WITH MLCAPE APPROACHING 2000 J/KG...WILL LIKELY EXIST OVER PARTS OF NEB/SE SD AND WRN KS...WHERE CONVERGENCE SHOULD ALSO BE MAXIMIZED INVOF FRONT'S INTERSECTION WITH LEE TROUGH AND 20 KT SLY LLJ. DEEP SHEAR WILL BE RATHER WEAK /AROUND 25 KT/. BUT EVEN WITH MODEST SHEAR...COMBINATION OF DEEP/SUSTAINED CONVERGENCE AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW MULTICELL CLUSTERS WITH HAIL/HIGH WIND. PRESENCE OF SRN STREAM DISTURBANCE WILL PROBABLY LIMIT NOCTURNAL STRENGTHENING OF LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE CNTRL PLNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NEVERTHELESS...CONCENTRATED FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT AND EXISTING POOL OF INSTABILITY SUGGEST THAT THE STORMS WILL CONSOLIDATE INTO AN MCS THAT SHOULD MOVE E/SE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NEB/WRN KS EARLY THURSDAY. ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING NEWD ALONG COLD FRONT INTO NW IA AND SRN/CNTRL MN...WHERE SOMEWHAT STRONGER /30 KT/ DEEP SHEAR BUT MORE LIMITED INSTABILITY /MLCAPE TO 1000 J PER KG/ WILL LIKELY EXIST. FARTHER S...SCATTERED STRONG...MAINLY MULTICELL STORMS/STORM CLUSTERS...MAY ALSO DEVELOP SWD ALONG LEE TROUGH INTO THE OK/TX PANHANDLE REGION AND W TX...WHERE MLCAPE WILL EXCEED 2000 J/KG BENEATH 20-25 KT SRN STREAM JET. ...MID ATLANTIC... A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS WILL EXIST INVOF SLOW-MOVING WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LWR GRT LKS UPPER TROUGH. EXPECTED MOIST ADIABATIC PROFILES AND CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LIMIT LOW LEVEL DESTABILIZATION. BUT MODERATE /40+ KT/ MEAN SWLY LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL PROVIDE AMPLE SHEAR FOR ORGANIZATION OF ANY SUSTAINED STORMS THAT DO FORM. ANY RESULTING THREAT FOR SMALL SCALE BOWS/DAMAGING WIND WILL BE CONDITIONAL UPON REALIZATION OF SUFFICIENT SURFACE HEATING TO STEEPEN LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ..CORFIDI.. 07/27/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 27 17:30:10 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 27 Jul 2004 12:30:10 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200407271729.i6RHTaX11394@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 271727 SWODY2 SPC AC 271726 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1226 PM CDT TUE JUL 27 2004 VALID 281200Z - 291200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE CPR 30 E DGW AIA MCK P28 CSM 30 NW SPS 30 SSE ABI 20 NNW SJT 20 E BGS LBB AMA LAA 10 NE LIC 10 N DEN 15 SE CPR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 WSW TUS 40 ESE GBN 10 SW PRC GCN CDC MLF 10 SSE SLC 10 SSE MLD TWF 80 WNW OWY 10 SE 4LW 60 SW RDM 45 NW DLS 55 ENE BLI ...CONT... 60 ENE 63S HLN BIL 4BQ RAP 15 E PHP PIR JMS 40 WSW DVL 55 NE MOT ...CONT... 55 NNW ANJ 45 E ESC MSN 10 NNE IRK SZL JLN FYV HOT 40 WSW GLH CBM RMG PSK EKN DUJ 30 WSW BUF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS WEDNESDAY AFTN ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS.... SLOW PROGRESSION OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL CONTINUE WITHIN BROADER SCALE WEAK CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW REGIME. UPPER TROUGH OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION BY EARLY WEDNESDAY IS PROGGED TO GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL OCCUR AS UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLOWLY DIGS ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER. IN TANDEM WITH THIS FEATURE...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH...EMBEDDED WITHIN WEAKER SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES...WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. ...INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO PLAINS... DRYING WILL OCCUR AT MID-LEVELS ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN...WHERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BECOME LESS NUMEROUS WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT STILL APPEARS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ROCKIES...AND AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH AXES ACROSS THE PLAINS. MID-LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...STEEPER LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONGER CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO PARTS OF THE HIGH PLAINS...BENEATH WEAK TO MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER FLOW. 30 TO 40 KT NORTHWESTERLY JET DIGGING TO THE WEST OF NORTHERN SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATELY STRONG SHEAR PROFILES SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS IN LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME DEVELOPING FROM THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO AND SOUTHEAST WYOMING. CAPE UP TO AROUND 1000 J/KG APPEARS POSSIBLE...AND SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. OTHER SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY FARTHER TO THE SOUTH...AHEAD OF SURFACE FRONT...FROM PARTS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS/ SOUTHEAST COLORADO INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE REGION. WHILE NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW REGIME AND ASSOCIATED SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE WEAKER...DEVELOPMENT OF WARMER/DEEPER BOUNDARY LAYER WITH 60S DEW POINTS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MORE FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT. MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE WILL EXCEED 1000 J/KG...AND MAY APPROACH 2000 J/KG BY LATE AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN MOST VIGOROUS STORMS...BEFORE ACTIVITY WEAKENS WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ...NORTHEAST STATES... BAND OF PRECIPITATION IN WARM ADVECTION REGIME WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD OFF NORTHERN/MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS WEDNESDAY...WITH MID-LEVEL DRYING OVERSPREADING AREAS TO THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND ACROSS EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA/NEW YORK STATE. THIS WILL ACCOMPANY 30 TO 40 KT SOUTHERLY JET CORE AHEAD OF MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...AND SURFACE HEATING MAY CONTRIBUTE TO NARROW CORRIDOR OF WEAK TO MODERATE DESTABILIZATION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AS MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION NEAR TROUGH AXIS OVERSPREADS HEATED BOUNDARY LAYER...DEVELOPMENT OF AT LEAST WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS POSSIBLE. ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE... PERHAPS SOME SMALL HAIL AS WELL. ..KERR.. 07/27/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 28 07:46:35 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 28 Jul 2004 02:46:35 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200407280746.i6S7k2X25886@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 280743 SWODY2 SPC AC 280742 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0242 AM CDT WED JUL 28 2004 VALID 291200Z - 301200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E RTN 20 S ALS 30 ENE ASE 15 SSE RIW 45 ESE WRL 35 NE DGW 30 SW SNY 25 NW EHA 30 E RTN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 N ANJ 35 SSE CGX 35 SW TBN 30 N LIT 10 E GLH 35 E TUP 35 E LUK PSB 10 SSW JFK ...CONT... 40 WSW FHU 15 SE GUP 45 SE CNY 30 ENE ELY 30 N OWY 25 NW 27U 30 SW BIL 15 E RAP 15 N FSD 20 SE EAU 20 SE CMX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE PSM 35 NE EFK. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF CO AND WY... ...SYNOPSIS... BROAD UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM S CNTRL CANADA SWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS WILL MIGRATE VERY SLOWLY E WHILE AMPLIFYING SWD AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATE THROUGH THIS FEATURE. COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM NRN ND SWWD THROUGH WRN NEB WILL CONTINUE E AND SWD AS A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER MT MOVES THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY EARLY THURSDAY. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD EXTEND FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SWWD THROUGH SRN KS OR NRN OK. A WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME WILL DEVELOP IN WAKE OF THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS ERN CO. ...CO AND WY... WEAK SELY UPSLOPE FLOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS ERN CO AND SE WY IN WAKE OF SURFACE FRONT AS IT SETTLES INTO KS. THIS WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS GIVEN DIFFUSE MOISTURE GRADIENT PRESENT IN FRONTAL ZONE. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM CNTRL/ERN CO INTO SE WY. THE COMBINATION OF OROGRAPHIC FORCING AND ANY DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THE NWLY FLOW REGIME WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE OVER THE CNTRL ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS AS UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE NRN PLAINS WITH 30-35 KT AT 6 KM. THIS WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THE PRIMARY THREATS. ACTIVITY MAY SPREAD EWD THROUGH ERN CO DURING THE EVENING. SEVERE THREAT FARTHER EAST INTO KS SHOULD BE LIMITED BY RELATIVELY COOL LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES FROM AIR THAT WILL HAVE BEEN STABILIZED BY EARLIER FRONTAL CONVECTION. ..DIAL.. 07/28/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 29 08:09:30 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 29 Jul 2004 03:09:30 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200407290808.i6T88vX13064@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 290806 SWODY2 SPC AC 290805 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0305 AM CDT THU JUL 29 2004 VALID 301200Z - 311200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N GRB 20 ESE VOK 35 SE FOD 30 SSE SPW 25 WNW FRM 25 NNW MSP 40 SSW DLH 30 S IWD 40 N GRB. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSE RTN 10 WNW TAD 40 WNW COS 30 ENE DEN 25 SSE AKO 45 WNW GCK 25 SE LBL 20 ESE DHT 50 SSE RTN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 E DUG 25 NNW 4SL 15 SW EGE 30 NE LAR 30 WSW VTN 10 NNE ATY 25 ENE INL ...CONT... 50 WNW 3B1 10 ESE PWM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS WILL MIGRATE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH FRIDAY AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATE THROUGH THIS FEATURE. A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SASKATCHEWAN IS FORECAST TO MOVE SEWD INTO BASE OF THE TROUGH AND CONTINUE EWD THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAK SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM A SURFACE LOW IN WI SWWD THROUGH NRN KS AND INTO NERN CO. ...UPPER MS VALLEY AND WRN PARTS OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES... WRN PORTIONS OF COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY THURSDAY WILL STALL AND BEGIN RETREATING NWD AS A WARM FRONT LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT FALLS AND CYCLOGENESIS ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS WILL ALLOW RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S TO ADVECT NWD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY AHEAD OF SECONDARY COLD FRONT ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. STORMS MAY BE IN PROGRESS FRIDAY MORNING FROM PARTS OF THE ERN DAKOTAS INTO WRN MN WITHIN ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. ATMOSPHERE DOWNSTREAM FROM THE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO DESTABILIZE AS MOISTURE RETURNS NWD WITH RETREATING WARM FRONT. MODEST LAPSE RATES AND POTENTIAL FOR CLOUDS TO PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON MAY LIMIT OVERALL MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY...WITH MLCAPE FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG POSSIBLE. STORMS MAY INTENSIFY AS THEY MOVE EWD AND THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES DURING THE AFTERNOON. 30-40 KT MID LEVEL FLOW ON SRN PERIPHERY OF UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO 30-40 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR...SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS. STRONGEST LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS EXPECTED IN VICINITY OF THE RETREATING WARM FRONT. PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND...HOWEVER AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS MOVING ALONG AND INTERACTING WITH THE ENHANCED SHEAR ALONG THE WARM FRONT. ...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS... WEAK ELY UPSLOPE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST UNDERNEATH 30 KT NWLY FLOW ALOFT OVER CO. OROGRAPHIC FORCING AUGMENTED BY SURFACE HEATING SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF AT LEAST WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ACTIVITY WILL SUBSEQUENTLY MOVE SEWD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS WHERE SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD HELP MAINTAIN SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WITHIN THE EXPECTED DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. MLCAPE FROM 1000 J/KG WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM ERN CO/NE NM INTO WRN KS AND THE TX PANHANDLE. THE 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 35 TO 40 KT WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL THE MAIN THREATS THROUGH MID EVENING. POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTOR FOR MORE THAN ISOLATED ACTIVITY COULD BE TENDENCY FOR RIDGE TO BUILD AS UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EWD TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AREA. ...PART OF MID MS THROUGH LOWER OH VALLEY... SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE OK/TX AREA WILL LIFT NEWD INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY FRIDAY. LOW LEVEL JET ACCOMPANYING THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES. POTENTIAL FOR STORMS ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO ROTATE MAY CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER...WITH TIME THIS WILL LIFT AWAY FROM THE RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WITH POOR LAPSE RATES EXPECTED...SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED BY MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES. ..DIAL.. 07/29/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 29 17:19:58 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 29 Jul 2004 12:19:58 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200407291719.i6THJLD07457@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 291717 SWODY2 SPC AC 291716 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1216 PM CDT THU JUL 29 2004 VALID 301200Z - 311200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W FOD 35 WSW SPW 30 WSW RWF 45 W DLH 45 ENE DLH 10 SE IWD 20 NW AUW 20 NNW ALO 15 SE FOD 40 W FOD. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W DHT 30 SSE RTN 40 E ALS 30 WSW COS 20 SE DEN 25 SSE AKO 30 SSW GLD 45 W GCK 35 S EHA 25 W DHT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 E DUG 45 NW 4SL 15 NW ASE 10 SSW LAR 40 WNW VTN 35 W ATY 10 ENE INL ...CONT... 50 WNW 3B1 10 ESE PWM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SE MN...NRN IA AND NW WI... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS... ...SE MN/NRN IA/NWRN WI... AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL SHIFT SLOWLY SEWD INTO MN ON DAY 2. THIS WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT LARGE-SCALE SUPPORT FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ON FRIDAY. THE MAIN FOCUS FOR STORMS WILL LIKELY BE WITH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC LOW THAT MOVES ACROSS SERN MN INTO NWRN WI DURING THE AFTERNOON. 21Z FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR FRIDAY IN THIS AREA SHOW MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG WITH ABOUT 35 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. THIS COMBINATION SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR MULTICELLS. 500 MB TEMPS OF -12 TO -14C AND LAPSE RATES OF 6.5 TO 7.0 C/KM WILL FAVOR ISOLATED HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS. THE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS CNTRL MN AND NW IA MOVING EWD INTO NCNTRL IA AND NWRN WI BY EARLY EVENING. THE BEST THREAT OF SEVERE SHOULD BE CONCENTRATED NEAR PEAK HEATING. ...SRN HIGH PLAINS... A MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER SERN ID AND WRN WY AS SEEN IN THE OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS FIELDS...WILL MOVE SEWD OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD BE POSITIONED ACROSS ERN CO AND WRN KS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE MAY PROVIDE ADEQUATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR SEVERE STORMS ON DAY 2 ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. THE MOUNTAINS WILL PROVIDE LIFT NECESSARY FOR STORM FORMATION BY MIDDAY AND THIS CONVECTION SHOULD SPREAD SLOWLY SEWD ACROSS SE CO AND FAR NE NM DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. ONE ISSUE THAT COULD BE PROBLEMATIC FOR SEVERE STORM FORMATION WILL BE THE FORECAST INSTABILITY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR SE CO AND FAR NE NM SHOW LESS THAN 500 J/KG OF MLCAPE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE BETTER INSTABILITY WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGHER SFC DEWPOINTS ACROSS SW KS AND THE NE TX PANHANDLE. HOWEVER...A SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE POSSIBLE IF THE 35 TO 40 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR MATERIALIZES. THIS COMBINED WITH THE STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WOULD PROMOTE A HAIL THREAT WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS. LCL HEIGHTS ABOVE 700 MB WOULD RESULT IN HIGH BASED STORMS WHICH COULD ALSO HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE NEAR PEAK HEATING. ...LOWER OH VALLEY... AN MCS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ACROSS MO AT THE BEGINNING OF DAY 2 ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN ERN KS AND WRN MO. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES NEWD INTO IL...STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY SPREAD NEWD ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY DURING THE DAY. ALTHOUGH SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE WEAK ACROSS SE MO...SRN IL AND SRN IND...HIGH SFC DEWPOINTS...MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT MAY PROMOTE A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT NEAR PEAK HEATING. UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES SHOULD RESULT IN MULTICELLS WITH A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS. ..BROYLES.. 07/29/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 30 07:37:35 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 30 Jul 2004 02:37:35 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200407300736.i6U7asD21921@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 300734 SWODY2 SPC AC 300733 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0233 AM CDT FRI JUL 30 2004 VALID 311200Z - 011200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE INL 10 ENE STC 30 SSE RWF 15 N SUX 45 NNE BUB 45 NW VTN 55 WSW MBG 70 NNE DVL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SW TUS 45 E PHX 40 SW GUP 45 SSE MTJ 20 WSW CAG 15 E OGD 15 N BAM 15 SE LOL 65 NW BIH 40 ENE SCK 15 ESE RBL 40 W MHS 60 SE EUG 30 E PDT 35 NE PUW 80 ENE 63S ...CONT... 35 NW LRD 20 N CLL 35 SSW MEM 30 NW SDF 25 SE FWA 15 SE JXN 30 W MBS 10 S MBL 30 SSE OSH 25 ESE OTM 35 N CNU 25 S P28 30 WNW PVW 30 SW ELP. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR THE ERN DAKOTAS AND WRN MN.... ...SYNOPSIS... HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY RISE OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS AS A MID LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE SRN/CENTRAL ROCKIES...AND A TROUGH OVER THE MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES FILLS AND LIFTS NEWD. THE MAIN BELT OF WLYS WILL BE LOCATED FROM THE PRAIRIE PROVINCES EWD OVER THE NRN TIER OF STATES TO QUEBEC AND NRN NEW ENGLAND...WITHIN WHICH A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER SRN SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK TROUGH WILL ACCOMPANY THE DE-AMPLIFYING GREAT LAKES MID LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE OH VALLEY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. A FEW STORMS WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR FROM THE UPPER OH VALLEY TO INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND WHERE MODEST/UNIDIRECTIONAL LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED...BUT POOR LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY AND THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT THIS AREA. A SOMEWHAT GREATER THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS AND MN AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ...ERN DAKOTAS/MN... BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NWD ACROSS THE PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO LEE TROUGHING...BUT THE MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE GULF COAST AND ERN STATES. HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE ENHANCED BY EVAPOTRANSPIRATION FROM NEB NEWD TO MN...WHERE MID-UPPER 60 DEWPOINTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE MAIN CONCERNS FOR THIS AREA WILL BE STORM COVERAGE GIVEN THE TENDENCY FOR HEIGHT RISES OVER THE PLAINS...AND A HORIZONTAL DECOUPLING OF THE STRONGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT /CLOSER TO THE CANADIAN BORDER/ AND THE STRONGER INSTABILITY FARTHER TO THE SW. STILL...THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING MOISTURE ...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND 30-50 KT WNWLY MID LEVEL FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ..THOMPSON.. 07/30/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 30 17:05:51 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 30 Jul 2004 12:05:51 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200407301705.i6UH5AD14077@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 301703 SWODY2 SPC AC 301701 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1201 PM CDT FRI JUL 30 2004 VALID 311200Z - 011200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 W RRT 30 SE STC 25 S MKT 15 NW SUX 65 ENE ANW 55 N OLF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW LRD SHV 50 WSW OWB 35 ESE IND 15 SE JXN 30 W MBS MBL 30 SSE OSH 15 ENE EMP 35 WNW PVW 10 S ELP ...CONT... 70 WSW TUS 45 SW GUP 35 SSE MTJ 40 SSW CAG 40 NE VEL 30 N ENV 20 W BAM 25 SSE NFL 55 SSE TVL 20 NE SCK 30 NW RBL 20 ENE MFR 30 ENE RDM 30 N PUW 85 WNW FCA. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS... ...NRN PLAINS... AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE NRN PLAINS WILL MOVE EWD TONIGHT AS NWLY FLOW BECOMES ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS WRN CANADA IS FORECAST TO DIVE SEWD TONIGHT SPREADING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY AFTERNOON. AS HEIGHTS FALL...A SFC LOW SHOULD DEVELOP IN ND WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING WWD INTO MT AND A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD ACROSS MN. THESE BOUNDARIES WILL FOCUS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON ACROSS ND AND CNTRL SD. THE STORMS WILL SLOWLY SPREAD SEWD REACHING WRN MN BY THE EVENING HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY WILL BE ACROSS ERN SD AND SWRN MN SOUTH OF THE SFC LOW AND WARM FRONT. WITH SFC DEWPOINT IN THE 60S F...MLCAPE VALUES WILL LIKELY REACH 2000 J/KG ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS. IN ADDITION...DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES SHOULD RANGE FROM 50 KT ACROSS ND TO ABOUT 35 KT ACROSS SW MN WHICH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. THE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7.0 TO 8.0 C/KM WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS. WIND DAMAGE WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT MAY ALSO EXIST ESPECIALLY WITH STRONG CELLS THAT TRACK SEWD ALONG PREEXISTING BOUNDARIES. ...NORTHEAST US... AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...REACHING FAR WRN NY AND ERN OH BY SATURDAY EVENING. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ACROSS NY AND PA AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH WEAK INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT BY AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 25 TO 30 KT AND THIS COMBINED WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES WILL FAVOR MULTICELLULAR CONVECTIVE LINES. THE RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL...HOWEVER...THE WIND PROFILES AND SHEAR MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT NEAR PEAK HEATING. ..BROYLES.. 07/30/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 31 07:35:00 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 31 Jul 2004 02:35:00 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200407310734.i6V7YGD05204@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 310730 SWODY2 SPC AC 310729 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0229 AM CDT SAT JUL 31 2004 VALID 011200Z - 021200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM OSC 10 WSW MKG 30 SE DBQ 45 SW ALO 30 SSE SPW 50 WNW RWF 30 WNW AXN 45 NW BRD 35 SW HIB 15 ESE DLH 15 NE IWD 20 S CMX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SW GBN 35 NNW IGM 20 SE TPH 65 ENE MER 45 W TVL 40 E RBL 40 SW MHS 40 E CEC 30 NW MFR 45 E EUG 45 W PDT 40 NNW ALW 45 NNE 63S ...CONT... 25 S DTW 35 NNE LAF DEC 25 S UIN 15 NW FLV 15 NNE SLN 45 ENE DDC 25 ENE EHA 35 SSE RTN 20 NE ONM 30 SSW DMN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NW DRT 50 ESE JCT 35 NNE CLL 35 SSE SHV 45 NW JAN 25 SSW HSV 40 WSW BLF 25 NW CXY 40 ENE UCA 40 NE PBG. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY.... ...SYNOPSIS... FLOW REGIME OVER THE CONUS WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A CLOSED HIGH OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS AND A BELT OF 40-50 KT MID LEVEL WLYS NEAR THE US/CANADIAN BORDER. THE LAST VESTIGES OF THE SYSTEM NOW OVER THE OH VALLEY WILL LIFT NEWD OVER NRN NEW ENGLAND...PROVIDING A THREAT FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE ASSOCIATED TRAILING SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND GULF COAST STATES. FARTHER W...LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM AZ NWD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN...TO THE E OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER NRN CA. THE GENERAL PATTERN ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN SUGGESTS SOME CONCERN FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH LARGELY DRY THUNDERSTORMS IN INVERTED-V PROFILES WITH 30 KT MID LEVEL FLOW...THOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD STILL BE QUITE WEAK. LASTLY...A MORE SIGNIFICANT THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED INVOF A WEAK SURFACE FRONT FROM ERN MT ACROSS THE DAKOTAS/MN/WI/UPPER MI...NEAR THE SRN FRINGE OF THE STRONGER MID LEVEL WLY/NWLY FLOW. ...UPPER MS VALLEY AREA... THE MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS IS NOW CONFINED TO AREAS FROM TX TO OH AND EWD. HOWEVER...NWD MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE SRN PLAINS AND EVAPOTRANSPIRATION THE NEXT TWO DAYS...BENEATH A PLUME OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WILL RESULT IN SUBSTANTIAL DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY REGION. MLCAPE VALUES MAY EXCEED 3000 J/KG DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM ERN NEB TO CENTRAL MN...THOUGH MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR MAY BE CAPPED BY THE WARM ELEVATED MIXED LAYER PLUME. THEREFORE...EXPECT THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT AREAS TO BE FOCUSED ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY...INVOF THE WEAK SURFACE FRONT. THERE WILL BE SOME POSSIBILITY FOR CONVECTION FROM LATE IN THE DAY 1 PERIOD TO PERSIST AND INTENSIFY WHILE DEVELOPING EWD/SEWD ACROSS MN DURING THE DAY. IF THIS SCENARIO OCCURS...THEN A FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS WITH CONCENTRATED DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS WRN UPPER MI/NRN WI/CENTRAL MN. A FEED OF STRONG INSTABILITY FROM THE S AND 30-40 KT WNWLY MID LEVEL FLOW SUPPORT A SUPERCELL THREAT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO. STORMS COULD THEN GROW UPSCALE INTO AN MCS WITH DAMAGING WINDS BECOMING THE MAIN THREAT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. ...ERN MT INTO NRN SD/ND... A WEAK SURFACE FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL ALONG A NW-SE AXIS FROM ERN MT INTO SD. THOUGH L0W-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED THIS AREA...LOW-LEVEL ASCENT ALONG THE FRONT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES MAY ALLOW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. DEEP LAYER WIND PROFILES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...AND ANY PERSISTENT STORMS MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS DESPITE THE RELATIVE WEAK INSTABILITY. STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP OVER ND SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL WAA INCREASES...BUT LIMITED MOISTURE SUGGESTS THAT ONLY L0W SEVERE PROBABILITIES ARE WARRANTED. ...NW KS TO SE SD AREA... THE BACKGROUND PATTERN DOES NOT APPEAR PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH THE CLOSED MID LEVEL LOCATED IMMEDIATELY SW OF THIS AREA. HOWEVER...A REMNANT NE-SW ORIENTED LEE TROUGH AND STRONG SURFACE HEATING/DEEP MIXING MAY ALLOW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. ANY STORMS THAT FORM WILL TEND TO BE HIGH BASED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG OUTFLOW GUSTS. ADDITIONALLY...DEEP LAYER WIND PROFILES MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. ..THOMPSON.. 07/31/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 31 17:35:35 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 31 Jul 2004 12:35:35 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200407311734.i6VHYpD17470@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 311732 SWODY2 SPC AC 311731 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1231 PM CDT SAT JUL 31 2004 VALID 011200Z - 021200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ANJ 15 NW PIA 15 W UIN 30 SSW IRK 35 NNE STJ PIR 20 S P24 15 W DVL FAR AXN DLH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW YUM 35 NNE BLH 40 SSW DRA TPH 50 NNE WMC 50 ESE MHS 55 SSE RBL 35 NW UKI CEC EUG PDT 3TH 55 NNW FCA ...CONT... 15 NNE MBS BEH DEC BLV SGF ICT 50 WSW RSL GCK CAO 20 WSW 4CR 40 W ELP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NW DRT TYR 25 NE GLH MSL JKL DUJ SYR 30 ENE MSS. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS OF THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY REGION... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER TROUGH...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...IS FORECAST TO LIFT NEWD INTO NEW ENGLAND...IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE SRN CANADIAN PROVINCES. LARGE HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL COVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE NATION AND INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES....WHILE A BAND OF 40-50 KT MID LEVEL WLY WINDS WILL PERSIST FROM THE NRN ROCKIES/PLAINS EWD INTO NEW ENGLAND. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THE UPPER TROUGH THROUGH NEW ENGLAND....WHILE A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL STRETCH FROM MT SEWD INTO SD AND THEN EWD ACROSS SRN MN/WI. ...UPPER MS VALLEY AREA... SURFACE LOW PRESSURE....EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALONG THE FRONT IN THE SD AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WILL AID IN ADVECTING LOWER 70 DEWPOINTS FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE REGION BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOIST PLUS EVAPOTRANSPIRATION...BENEATH A PLUME OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WILL RESULT IN SUBSTANTIAL DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE REGION. MLCAPE VALUES ARE LIKELY TO APPROACH 4000 J/KG FROM ERN NEB/SD INTO SRN MN/NRN IA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE WLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND A CAPPING INVERSION. THIS CAP SHOULD WEAKEN NEAR THE FRONT AS INCREASING DIFFLUENCE/DIVERGENCE ALOFT INCREASES THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE... WITH STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND 40 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS DURING THE STORMS INITIAL DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...THE 40 KT MID LEVEL FLOW...STRONG INSTABILITY AND BOUNDARY ARE FAVORABLE FOR STORMS TO EVOLVE INTO A FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS WITH CONCENTRATED DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE ...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SRN MN/NRN IA AND SRN WI SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECT ENOUGH REPORTS FOR MODERATE RISK...BUT MODELS VARIANCE IN LOCATION AND TIMING OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION FROM PREVIOUS MODEL PRECLUDES THE HIGHER RISK ATTM. ...SD/ND... THOUGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL BE LOWER THAN ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY...STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT MUCAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG...WITH THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY IN NERN SD. A WEAK IMPULSE IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW AND ENSEMBLES SUPPORT ELEVATED STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. DEEP LAYER WIND PROFILES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...BUT STABLE BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE FRONT SUGGESTS THAT HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. ...CENTRAL AND ERN KS/NEB EWD INTO MO... STRONG INSTABILITY AND STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL NWLY FLOW AT 20 TO 30 KT WILL PROVIDE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ROTATING STORMS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE AREA REMAINS STRONGLY CAPPED...BUT GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED CONDITIONS AND WEAK COLD ADVECTION AT 500 MB...A 5% PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE IS FORECAST SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP. ...NERN U.S... MODELS FORECAST 30 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH MLCAPES FROM 1000-1500 J/KG...SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER..150-200 NM EXTENSIVE CLOUD BAND CURRENTLY EXTENDS ALONG AND AHEAD OF FRONT ACROSS NY/PA AND THE OH VALLEY...AND SUSPECT THESE CLOUDS WILL LIMIT THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. ...GREAT BASIN... MID LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD GRADUALLY SPREAD FROM AZ NWD INTO THE REGION. DESPITE MARGINAL INSTABILITY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MOIST SOUNDINGS FROM 550 MB-300 MB...WHICH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. LARGE INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS BELOW THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND 30 KT MID LEVEL FLOW INDICATE A THREAT OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS. ..IMY.. 07/31/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 31 17:41:31 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 31 Jul 2004 12:41:31 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200407311740.i6VHekD19353@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 311738 SWODY2 SPC AC 311737 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1237 PM CDT SAT JUL 31 2004 VALID 011200Z - 021200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ANJ 15 NW PIA 15 W UIN 30 SSW IRK 35 NNE STJ PIR 20 S P24 15 W DVL FAR AXN DLH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW YUM 35 NNE BLH 40 SSW DRA TPH 50 NNE WMC 50 ESE MHS 55 SSE RBL 35 NW UKI CEC EUG PDT 3TH 55 NNW FCA ...CONT... 15 NNE MBS BEH DEC BLV SGF ICT 50 WSW RSL GCK CAO 20 WSW 4CR 40 W ELP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NW DRT TYR 25 NE GLH MSL JKL DUJ SYR 30 ENE MSS. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY REGION... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER TROUGH...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...IS FORECAST TO LIFT NEWD INTO NEW ENGLAND...IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE SRN CANADIAN PROVINCES. LARGE HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL COVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE NATION AND INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES....WHILE A BAND OF 40-50 KT MID LEVEL WLY WINDS WILL PERSIST FROM THE NRN ROCKIES/PLAINS EWD INTO NEW ENGLAND. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THE UPPER TROUGH THROUGH NEW ENGLAND....WHILE A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL STRETCH FROM MT SEWD INTO SD AND THEN EWD ACROSS SRN MN/WI. ...UPPER MS VALLEY AREA... SURFACE LOW PRESSURE....EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALONG THE FRONT IN THE SD AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WILL AID IN ADVECTING LOWER 70 DEWPOINTS FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE REGION BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOIST PLUS EVAPOTRANSPIRATION...BENEATH A PLUME OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WILL RESULT IN SUBSTANTIAL DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE REGION. MLCAPE VALUES ARE LIKELY TO APPROACH 4000 J/KG FROM ERN NEB/SD INTO SRN MN/NRN IA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE WLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND A CAPPING INVERSION. THIS CAP SHOULD WEAKEN NEAR THE FRONT AS INCREASING DIFFLUENCE/DIVERGENCE ALOFT INCREASES THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE... WITH STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND 40 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS DURING THE STORMS INITIAL DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...THE 40 KT MID LEVEL FLOW...STRONG INSTABILITY AND BOUNDARY ARE FAVORABLE FOR STORMS TO EVOLVE INTO A FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS WITH CONCENTRATED DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE ...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SRN MN/NRN IA AND SRN WI SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECT ENOUGH REPORTS FOR MODERATE RISK...BUT MODELS VARIANCE IN LOCATION AND TIMING OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION FROM PREVIOUS MODEL PRECLUDES THE HIGHER RISK ATTM. ...SD/ND... THOUGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL BE LOWER THAN ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY...STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT MUCAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG...WITH THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY IN NERN SD. A WEAK IMPULSE IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW AND ENSEMBLES SUPPORT ELEVATED STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. DEEP LAYER WIND PROFILES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...BUT STABLE BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE FRONT SUGGESTS THAT HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. ...CENTRAL AND ERN KS/NEB EWD INTO MO... STRONG INSTABILITY AND STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL NWLY FLOW AT 20 TO 30 KT WILL PROVIDE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ROTATING STORMS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE AREA REMAINS STRONGLY CAPPED...BUT GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED CONDITIONS AND WEAK COLD ADVECTION AT 500 MB...A 5% PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE IS FORECAST SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP. ...NERN U.S... MODELS FORECAST 30 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH MLCAPES FROM 1000-1500 J/KG...SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER..150-200 NM EXTENSIVE CLOUD BAND CURRENTLY EXTENDS ALONG AND AHEAD OF FRONT ACROSS NY/PA AND THE OH VALLEY...AND SUSPECT THESE CLOUDS WILL LIMIT THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. ...GREAT BASIN... MID LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD GRADUALLY SPREAD FROM AZ NWD INTO THE REGION. DESPITE MARGINAL INSTABILITY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MOIST SOUNDINGS FROM 550 MB-300 MB...WHICH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. LARGE INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS BELOW THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND 30 KT MID LEVEL FLOW INDICATE A THREAT OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS. ..IMY.. 07/31/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 4 07:32:27 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 04 Jul 2004 02:32:27 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200407030733.i637XK109502@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 030731 SWODY2 SPC AC 030729 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0229 AM CDT SAT JUL 03 2004 VALID 041200Z - 051200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 N ISN 30 SE ISN 30 NE Y22 35 W HON 20 NNE OMA 30 NNW IRK 15 WNW EVV 20 N HOP 25 N MKL 70 ESE HRO 20 WSW TUL 40 WSW GAG 20 SW EHA 35 W AKO 30 WSW CPR 45 WNW COD 30 S GTF 35 NNE CTB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 S GBN 10 SSW PHX 10 ENE INW 85 ESE PGA 40 SW 4BL 20 NNE U17 15 S MLF 20 NNE DRA 60 N NID 25 NE FAT 30 E SCK 60 ESE RBL 65 SSE LMT 45 S BNO 45 NE BKE 10 NW LWS 35 NNW 63S ...CONT... 55 NNW MOT 50 ENE BIS 50 SE JMS 35 ENE AXN 35 SW IWD 70 NNE MQT ...CONT... 35 NE PBG RUT 10 WSW ISP ...CONT... 30 SW PSX 30 SSE AUS 35 SSE BWD 25 ENE SJT 50 WSW SJT 30 SE P07. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE HIGH PLAINS...NRN PLAINS...CNTRL PLAINS AND MID MS VALLEY... ...HIGH PLAINS/NRN PLAINS... A WELL-DEVELOPED UPPER-TROUGH OVER THE NRN ROCKIES WILL MOVE EWD ON DAY 2 AFFECTING THE HIGH PLAINS AND NRN PLAINS. AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT OVERSPREADS THE REGION DURING THE DAY...WARMING SFC TEMPS WILL CAUSE NUMEROUS STORMS TO INITIATE IN THE MTNS AND IN THE HIGH PLAINS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL PROMOTE ISOLATED SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT ALMOST ANYWHERE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND NRN PLAINS REGION. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE VERY STRONG...THE STRONGEST MID-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD SHIFT EWD OUT OF THE UPPER TROUGH INTO ERN MT...SWRN ND AND WRN SD WHERE THE SUPERCELL POTENTIAL APPEARS GREATEST. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS ESPECIALLY NEAR PEAK HEATING. A TORNADO OR TWO MAY ALSO OCCUR MAINLY IN THE BACKED SFC FLOW NORTH TO NORTHEAST OF ANY MESOSCALE SFC LOW THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION. AN MCS SHOULD DEVELOP AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET GETS GOING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...DIVING SEWD INTO SRN SD AND NEB OVERNIGHT. ...CNTRL PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY... THE SRN BRANCH OF THE JET STREAM WILL STRENGTHEN BY DAY 2 AS 35 TO 45 OF MID-LEVEL FLOW OVERSPREADS THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN SEVERAL IMPULSES THAT WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS AND INTO THE MID MS VALLEY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEVERAL STORM CLUSTERS SHOULD DEVELOP AND MOVE ESEWD AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING TROUGHS. ALTHOUGH IT IS TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT THE EXACT POSITION OF STORM CLUSTERS...IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT CELLS WILL FORM IN THE CO HIGH PLAINS AND MOVE SEWD INTO THE INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS KS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS ERN KS AND MOVE EWD INTO MO BY THE EVENING HOURS. THE MID-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS CONSIDERING STRONG INSTABILITY IS FORECAST BY THE ETA AND GFS ACROSS KS BY AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS CONSIDERING THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR IN PLACE. THE STRONG INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP THE ACTIVITY GOING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND AN MCS SHOULD DEVELOP AND MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE REGION WITH A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. ..BROYLES.. 07/03/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 4 17:53:54 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 04 Jul 2004 12:53:54 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200407031754.i63Hsk106074@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 031752 SWODY2 SPC AC 031750 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1250 PM CDT SAT JUL 03 2004 VALID 041200Z - 051200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNW ROC 25 W ELM 20 SSE AOO 20 W SSU 40 WSW BNA 55 SW ARG 25 SW TUL 30 SSW GCK 25 S SNY 30 SSE 4BQ 45 NW MLS 55 NW GGW 30 NE GGW 60 N PHP 20 SSW SUX 15 N OTM 25 NE PIA 35 NNE CGX 25 SE MBL 50 NE APN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 NNE ISN 55 NNE MBG 25 ESE ABR 30 NW STC 50 ENE ELO ...CONT... 15 NNW EFK 15 SE LEB 15 SE GON ...CONT... 35 W HUM 35 SE JAN 15 NNE TXK 40 SSW ADM 20 NNW ABI 30 NW DRT ...CONT... 75 SSW GBN 45 ESE GBN 70 NW TCS 45 SE GNT 85 NW GUP 30 SW PGA 40 NE P38 55 ENE TPH 15 N LOL 80 N WMC 25 NNW TWF 70 SSE S80 10 NW LWS 35 NNW 63S. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE MID MS AND OH VALLEYS / GREAT LAKES... ...SYNOPSIS... BROAD / FLAT MEAN TROUGH AT MID-LEVELS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL 2/3 OF THE CONUS THIS PERIOD...WHILE RIDGES ARE FORECAST ALONG BOTH THE W AND E COASTS. WITHIN COMPLEX CENTRAL U.S. MEAN TROUGH...NUMEROUS SMALLER SCALE FEATURES WILL MOVE EWD IN MODERATE WLY / CYCLONIC FLOW. ONE OF THE STRONGER OF THESE SMALLER SCALE FEATURES WILL MOVE ENEWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY / GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHILE A SECOND MOVES ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES TOWARD THE NRN PLAINS LATER IN THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...FAIRLY STRONG LOW INITIALLY EXPECTED OVER SRN PORTIONS OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SHOULD MOVE NEWD ACROSS THE LAKES TOWARD SWRN QUEBEC. BEHIND THIS LOW...NLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL ALLOW COOLER / MORE STABLE AIRMASS TO SPILL SWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS / NRN MS VALLEY / GREAT LAKES REGION...WHILE WARM / MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS EWD TO THE APPALACHIANS. ...MID MS / OH VALLEYS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION... SEVERAL CONVERGENCE AXES / TROUGHS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE MID MS / OH VALLEYS THIS PERIOD S OF SURFACE LOW MOVING SLOWLY NEWD ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES. ALTHOUGH CLOUDS / PRECIPITATION FROM LATE IN THE DAY 1 PERIOD WILL LIKELY LIMIT HEATING ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION...VERY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA SHOULD RESULT IN MARGINAL TO MODERATE INSTABILITY BY EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THE AREA. THIS WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT -- PARTICULARLY INVOF VARIOUS LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARIES. WITH BROAD BELT OF STRONGER /30 TO 45 KT/ WLY TO SWLY LOW- TO MID-LEVEL FLOW FORECAST ACROSS THIS REGION...SHEAR WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED / SEVERE STORMS. ALTHOUGH LOCALLY STRONG / DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT...SOME HAIL AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. GREATEST TORNADO THREAT APPEARS TO EXIST FROM LOWER MI ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES...WHERE MORE FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL VEERING / SHEAR IS ANTICIPATED. ALTHOUGH SEVERE THREAT SHOULD TAPER OFF SOME THROUGH THE EVENING WITH DIURNAL AIRMASS STABILIZATION...STORMS MAY CONTINUE IN SOME AREAS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ...NRN HIGH PLAINS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS... WLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ADVECT ELEVATED MIXED LAYER EWD ABOVE MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS OVER THE PLAINS. THIS COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALLOW MODERATELY TO EXTREMELY UNSTABLE BUT CAPPED AIRMASS TO DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON. MOST LIKELY AREA FOR INITIAL STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY BE OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS FROM ERN MT SWD INTO WRN NEB...WHERE LOW-LEVEL SELY UPSLOPE FLOW AND CONVERGENCE ALONG LEE TROUGH / SWD-MOVING FRONT WILL ALLOW CAP TO WEAKEN. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR NEAR PEAK HEATING ACROSS KS AND SWD ACROSS PARTS OF W TX NEAR DRYLINE AND OTHER LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARIES. WITH LARGE AREA OF SLY / SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW BENEATH MODERATE WLY FLOW ALOFT...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT MULTICELL / SUPERCELL STORMS ACROSS A LARGE AREA. ALTHOUGH COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED BY CAPPING ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THE REGION...AREAS OF HIGHER STORM COVERAGE / SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY EXIST -- BUT ARE DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE ATTM. THEREFORE...WILL INCLUDE A LARGE 15% PROBABILITY SEVERE THREAT AREA FOR PRIMARILY LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS THIS REGION. STORMS / SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL JET / WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS. ..GOSS.. 07/03/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 5 07:36:35 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 05 Jul 2004 02:36:35 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200407040737.i647bO127478@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 040732 SWODY2 SPC AC 040730 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0230 AM CDT SUN JUL 04 2004 VALID 051200Z - 061200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE SGF 20 ENE OKC 25 WSW LTS 40 WNW CDS 15 SSW EHA 25 SE PUB 45 NE LAR 25 NW AIA 30 NE IML 20 N EAR 40 SE FSD 30 N MCW 40 ENE MLI 25 W UNI 15 N TRI 20 W CSV 25 WSW CGI 25 NE SGF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 S MRF 20 N INK 20 NE LBB 10 S DHT 20 SSE RTN 4SL 35 SSW 4BL 20 SW BCE 30 NW DRA 40 E NID 40 NNE BFL 45 E UKI 45 E ACV 25 ESE LMT 20 S BAM 45 E SLC 35 W RKS 25 SSE IDA 30 ENE BOI 20 SE PDT 55 NW 4OM ...CONT... 60 ENE HVR 55 NNW MLS 45 SW BIS 35 SE DVL 45 NNE BJI 35 NW IWD 30 SSW IMT 20 WSW GRR 20 NNE MFD 30 ENE FKL 20 NW ITH 15 WSW MSS ...CONT... 10 SSE BPT 40 N ESF 20 SSW HOT 30 SSE MLC 15 SE MWL 25 SSE JCT 65 SSE DRT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL/SRN PLNS AND MID MS/LWR OH VLYS... ...SYNOPSIS... LOW AMPLITUDE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LWR 48 ON MONDAY...DOWNSTREAM FROM SPLIT JET OVER WRN CANADA. FARTHER S... WEAK RIDGE EXPECTED TO ELONGATE FROM THE SWRN DESERTS TO THE INTERIOR SERN U.S. IMPULSE NOW OVER THE SRN GRT BASIN SHOULD LIFT NE FROM THE CNTRL PLNS TO THE MID MS VLY DURING THE PERIOD...AND PARTIALLY PHASE WITH STRONGER MIDDLE STREAM IMPULSE NOW ENTERING THE PACIFIC NW. IN THE EAST...TRAILING SRN PART OF TROUGH NOW OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE E/SE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND SRN NEW ENGLAND. AT LWR LEVELS...SURFACE WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH PLNS IMPULSE EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM NRN KS TO NERN IA AS FRONT EXTENDING SW FROM ERN U.S. DISTURBANCE BECOMES STATIONARY OVER THE OH VLY. ...CNTRL/SRN PLNS TO MID MS VLY... AN MCS MAY BE IN PROGRESS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD OVER MO/SRN IA...IN WARM ADVECTION AREA DOWNSTREAM FROM UPPER IMPULSE ENTERING THE CNTRL PLNS. ANOTHER CONVECTIVE SYSTEM MAY BE PRESENT FARTHER W OVER NEB/NW KS...LEFT OVER FROM OVERNIGHT STORMS IN THE HI PLNS. THE MO MCS SHOULD MOVE/DEVELOP S/SE ALONG STALLING FRONT OVER THE MID MS/LWR OH VLYS LATER MONDAY AS SURFACE HEATING BOOSTS MLCAPE TO AOA 1500 J/KG. WITH MID LEVEL WLY FLOW ON THE ORDER OF 35-40 KT AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES GREATER THAN 7 DEG C PER KM...SETUP SHOULD SUPPORT BANDS/CLUSTERS OF SUSTAINED STORMS AND POSSIBLE EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WITH HIGH WIND AND HAIL INTO THE EVENING. OTHER STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT IN ZONE OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE/LARGE SCALE ASCENT IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF CNTRL PLNS UPPER TROUGH...AND INVOF ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW. STORMS MAY ALSO FORM ON ANY OUTFLOW LEFT BY WEAKENING OVERNIGHT NEB/KS CONVECTION. COMBINATION OF MODERATE /30-40 KT/ DEEP WSWLY SHEAR...RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE INFLOW...STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MLCAPE OF 1500-2500 J/KG SHOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS/ SUPERCELL CLUSTERS WITH LARGE HAIL/HIGH WIND AND...DEPENDING ON CONFIGURATION OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES...A COUPLE TORNADOES. THIS ACTIVITY MAY SPREAD NWD/AND INTO PARTS OF IA MONDAY EVENING AS SURFACE LOW MOVES NEWD. ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP LATER MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT SWD ALONG LEE TROUGH INTO SRN KS/NRN OK... AND IN ZONE OF UPSLOPE FLOW AHEAD OF SECONDARY COOL SURGE IN SE WY/SW NEB AND ERN CO. BOTH AREAS MAY CONSOLIDATE INTO E/SE-MOVING MCSS LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY. ...MID ATLANTIC STATES/NEW ENG... SCATTERED STORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE EMBEDDED IN MORE GENERAL SHOWERS...WILL AFFECT THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND PARTS OF NEW ENG. WEAK LAPSE RATES SHOULD MITIGATE DEGREE/COVERAGE OF ANY ASSOCIATED SEVERE THREAT. ..CORFIDI.. 07/04/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 5 17:48:27 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 05 Jul 2004 12:48:27 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200407041749.i64HnF114981@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 041746 SWODY2 SPC AC 041745 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1245 PM CDT SUN JUL 04 2004 VALID 051200Z - 061200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE SGF 20 ENE OKC 25 WSW LTS 40 WNW CDS 15 SSW EHA 25 SE PUB 45 NE LAR 25 NW AIA 30 NE IML 20 N EAR 40 SE FSD 30 N MCW 25 SSW DNV 50 SE IND 20 WNW JKL 20 W CSV 15 ENE POF 25 ESE SGF. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE EFK 25 NW ORH 25 NE NEL 30 ESE MRB 15 NW UNI 30 N CMH 50 NNE CLE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 ENE HVR 45 N MLS 50 SW MBG 35 N ABR BRD 20 SSW IMT 10 NNE MKG 10 ESE LAN 40 NNE MTC ...CONT... PSX 40 SE CLL 30 NNE TXK 30 SSE MLC 20 SE MWL 25 SSE JCT 65 SSE DRT ...CONT... 70 S MRF INK 50 W AMA 45 WSW CAO 30 SW 4CR 20 NNW SVC 40 N SAD 65 N INW 20 SSW 4HV 35 WNW PUC 40 ENE EVW 45 SW JAC 25 N DLN 30 WNW S06 45 NE 63S. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS EWD TO THE MID MS VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES / NERN CONUS... ...SYNOPSIS... MID-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN -- FEATURING A BROAD CENTRAL / ERN U.S. LARGE-SCALE TROUGH WITH NUMEROUS EMBEDDED SMALLER-SCALE FEATURES -- WILL SHIFT EWD WITH TIME AS WEAK LARGE-SCALE RIDGE DEVELOPS WITH TIME DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE WRN U.S. / ROCKIES. WEAK RIDGE WILL ALSO PREVAIL ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST / GULF COAST REGION...SUGGESTING THAT THE MAIN AREA FOR ACTIVE WEATHER THIS PERIOD SHOULD EXTEND FROM THE HIGH PLAINS EWD ACROSS THE MID AND UPPER MS / OH VALLEYS INTO THE NORTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO EXTEND IN AN ARC FROM LOWER MI WSWWD INTO SRN IA / NRN MO...AND FROM THERE CURVING WNWWD ACROSS NEB INTO ERN MT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. WHILE ERN PORTIONS OF THIS FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING EWD / SEWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES / NORTHEAST...WEAK LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY OVER ERN NEB / WRN IA AS MID-LEVEL TROUGH CONSOLIDATES OVER THE PLAINS. AS THIS LOW SHIFTS EWD ACROSS IA THROUGH THE EVENING ALONG SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE...NLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW BEHIND THE LOW SHOULD ALLOW COOL FRONT TO SURGE SWD ACROSS THE PLAINS. BY LATE IN THE PERIOD...COOLER / DRIER AIRMASS SHOULD SPREAD AS FAR SWD AS SWRN KS BY LATE IN THE PERIOD. ...THE PLAINS EWD TO THE MID MS VALLEY REGION... THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. REMNANT OUTFLOWS -- ALONG WITH COLD FRONT MOVING SWD ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON -- WILL LIKELY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME HEATING OF MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS BENEATH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AGAIN RESULTS IN MODERATE TO STRONG DESTABILIZATION. STORMS SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON / EVENING ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AS INCREASING ELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW JUST N OF SWD-MOVING COLD FRONT PROVIDES FAVORABLE UPSLOPE / UVV FOR STORM INITIATION. WITH MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS FORECAST TO CONSOLIDATE / SHARPEN WITH TIME...BELT OF MODERATE /30 TO 40 KT/ WLY FLOW WILL LIKELY BE MAINTAINED ABOVE GENERALLY SLY / SELY LOW-LEVEL WINDS. RESULTING SHEAR WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED / SEVERE STORMS...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE. GREATEST STORM COVERAGE -- AND THUS HIGHER SEVERE PROBABILITY -- WILL LIKELY EXIST FROM ERN CO EWD ACROSS KS TO THE MID MS VALLEY WHERE COMBINATION OF STRONGEST INSTABILITY AND MOST FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD EXIST. STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE / MOVE ESEWD ACROSS THIS REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS LOW-LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES OVER THIS AREA. ...THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION / NORTHEAST... THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THIS REGION BY MID-AFTERNOON ALONG COLD FRONT / AHEAD OF SHARP SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WHICH SHOULD BE MOVING ACROSS SERN ONTARIO AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES DURING THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY WEAK OVER THIS AREA...DAYTIME HEATING OF MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD -- INCLUDING 40 TO 45 KT MID-LEVEL FLOW SPREADING EWD ACROSS THIS REGION IN ASSOCIATION WITH MID-LEVEL TROUGH -- WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS...WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MOST LIKELY THREAT. STORMS SHOULD SPREAD EWD TOWARD NEW ENGLAND DURING THE EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING WITH DIURNAL STABILIZATION. ALTHOUGH SOME QUESTION EXISTS ATTM WITH REGARD TO DEGREE OF DAYTIME HEATING / AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION -- WHICH WILL LIKELY MODULATE DEGREE OF THREAT -- ADDITION OF SLIGHT RISK AREA APPEARS JUSTIFIED ATTM. ..GOSS.. 07/04/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 6 07:36:43 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 06 Jul 2004 02:36:43 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200407050737.i657bT108547@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 050734 SWODY2 SPC AC 050733 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0233 AM CDT MON JUL 05 2004 VALID 061200Z - 071200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNE MAF 40 NNE CNM 40 E 4CR 30 WNW RTN 35 NNE TAD 25 S LAA 15 ESE LBL 30 NW PNC 10 E SZL 10 NNE PIA 20 SSE MKE 20 S MBL 20 N MBS 35 ESE MTC 35 NNW ZZV 10 E LEX 30 WSW HOP 45 ENE PRX 15 WSW ABI 15 NNE MAF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW JHW 20 S PSK 35 SSW CHS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W ELP 75 ESE SOW 55 NE IGM 35 SW BIH 60 NE MER 40 WSW RNO 50 ENE SVE 40 ENE OWY 40 SW MLD 30 NNE VEL 45 SE RWL 40 N CYS 15 SW SNY 35 WNW GLD 50 SW HLC SLN 35 NE STJ 10 SSW MCW 45 NW EAU 20 ENE IWD 80 WNW ANJ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 N OLF 40 WSW 4BQ 30 SSE WRL 40 WNW LND 30 W JAC 60 ENE S80 30 NNW 4OM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS...OZARK PLATEAU...OH VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES... ...SRN PLAINS/OZARK PLATEAU... AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE NRN ROCKIES WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST ON DAY 2. THIS WILL CAUSE A COLD FRONT TO DROP SWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS AND OZARK PLATEAU ON TUESDAY. THE STRONGEST LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO THE EAST OF THE FRONTAL ZONE BY AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...INCREASING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR INITIATION. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS THE OZARK PLATEAU WITH ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE IN WRN OK AND W TX. SFC DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 F WILL EXIST AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS OK...AR AND MO AND THIS WILL HELP CREATE MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY BY AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 20 TO 30 KT ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP THE MAIN MODE OF CONVECTION MULTICELLULAR. HOWEVER...ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF LOCALLY ENHANCED INSTABILITY AND SHEAR. LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST TO BE STEEPEST FROM W TX ACROSS OK. THIS WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR LARGE HAIL. THE MOST FAVORABLE AREA FOR WIND DAMAGE WILL BE ACROSS THE OZARK PLATEAU WHERE STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET WILL EXIST DURING THE EVENING HOURS. IF A COLD POOL CAN GENERATE...WIND DAMAGE COULD BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ACROSS THIS REGION. IF A LINEAR MCS CAN DEVELOP ...THE WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL SHOULD CONTINUE AFTER MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...IT IS TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT EXACTLY WHERE THIS ENHANCED SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST OVERNIGHT. ...OH VALLEY/SRN GREAT LAKES... A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON DAY 2 AND THIS WILL RESULT IN CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A LARGE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER COULD BE ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH. AS THE TROUGH MOVES EWD...A COLD FRONT WILL DIVE SEWD INTO IL AND IND DURING THE DAY. IN ADDITION...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NEWD ACROSS IND...OH AND WV. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG BOTH OF THE FRONTS COMBINED WITH STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE STORMS SHOULD EXPAND IN COVERAGE...SWD TOWARD THE HIGHER INSTABILITY FORECAST TO BE NEAR THE OH RIVER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP SHEAR OF ABOUT 30 KT WHICH COMBINED WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL FAVOR MULTICELL CONVECTION AS THE PRIMARY MODE. HOWEVER A FEW SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE GREATER INSTABILITY ACROSS IL DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE MARGINAL...HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS. THE BETTER THREAT SHOULD BE WIND DAMAGE ESPECIALLY WITH BOWING SEGMENTS THAT ORGANIZE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS THE CONVECTION MOVES AWAY FROM THE LOW-LEVEL JET CROSSING THE OH RIVER. ..BROYLES.. 07/05/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 6 17:39:43 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 06 Jul 2004 12:39:43 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200407051740.i65HeR101442@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 051738 SWODY2 SPC AC 051737 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1237 PM CDT MON JUL 05 2004 VALID 061200Z - 071200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ERI FKL PIT PKB HTS BWG HOP 35 N MEM PBF TXK 20 NW MWL ABI 40 S MAF INK CNM 40 NW ROW PUB DEN FCL 35 ENE AKO 40 E LAA DDC HUT COU SPI BEH MKG 30 S TVC APN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WSW MRF GDP ONM GNT DRO GUC ASE EGE 40 W CAG OGD EKO LOL NFL 50 WNW DRA 35 SW BIH 55 NE MER MHS MFR 55 ENE BLI ...CONT... 65 N OLF OLF 4BQ 40 N RAP 40 SSW PHP MHN HLC RSL SLN MHK 30 WNW FNB YKN BKX STC MQT ...CONT... 35 NW SYR ITH BWI 45 SSW DCA LYH AVL AHN MCN AYS SSI ...CONT... GLS 35 SSW CLL AUS HDO 70 NW LRD. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OH/LOWER MI SWWD TO SRN HIGH PLAINS AND CO FRONT RANGE... ...SYNOPSIS... IN MID/UPPER LEVELS...PROGRESSIVE NRN STREAM PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH DAY-2. TROUGH NOW EVIDENT ON MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER SRN ONT AND E-CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION IS FCST TO EXIT NEW ENGLAND COAST NEAR BEGINNING OF PERIOD. PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER CENTRAL PLAINS IS FCST TO WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY THROUGH EARLY DAY-2 AS IT EJECTS NEWD ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES...IN RESPONSE TO PROGRESS/AMPLIFICATION OF UPSTREAM PERTURBATION NOW OVER WY/MT. LATTER FEATURE WILL MOVE FROM CENTRAL PLAINS TO MS VALLEY BY 07/12Z...ANCHORED BY A MIDLEVEL CYCLONE CENTERED INVOF WRN LS. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW SHOULD MOVE FROM PRESENTLY ANALYZED POSITION OVER SWRN IA...ENEWD ACROSS LOWER MI DAY-2. TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM MID MS VALLEY TOWARD ERN OH...AND SWD ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS TO OK AND TX PANHANDLE. BY 07/00Z...SECONDARY SFC LOW IS PROGGED BY ETA/NGM INVOF FRONT...OVER LOWER PECOS VALLEY REGION OF SERN NM AND W TX. ...GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY TO OZARKS... SCATTERED SEVERE TSTMS -- INCLUDING SOME SUPERCELLS AND BOWS -- ARE POSSIBLE DURING DAY. MOIST ADVECTION AND DIURNAL HEATING IN WARM SECTOR WILL RAISE MLCAPES TO AROUND 1000-2000 J/KG BY 18-21Z TIME FRAME FROM SRN LOWER MI ACROSS PORTIONS OH/INDIANA. VERTICAL SHEAR SUPPORTING SUPERCELLS -- AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO THREAT -- WILL BE POSSIBLE E OF SFC LOW OVER MI/INDIANA BORDER REGION...WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IS MOST STRONGLY BACKED. DEEP-LAYER WIND PROFILES SHOULD BECOME MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL FARTHER S ACROSS MORE OF INDIANA/OH...AHEAD OF SFC FRONT...INDICATING PRIMARY THREAT OF WIND DAMAGE. OVERALL SEVERE PROBABILITIES SHOULD DIMINISH WITH SWWD EXTENT ACROSS INDIANA TO OZARKS REGION...AS BOUNDARY LAYER VEERING IN WARM SECTOR LIMITS FRONTAL CONVERGENCE/LIFT. STILL...AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS DURING AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. EXPECT NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP-LAYER FLOW...WEAK SHEAR...AND SFC DEW POINTS FROM MID 60S TO LOW 70S F SUPPORTING 1500-2500 MLCAPE. ...SRN PLAINS... STRONG SIGNAL EXISTS IN ETA FOR LATE DAY-1 AND EARLY DAY-2 MCS SWEEPING SEWD FROM CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ACROSS SW KS...TOWARD NRN OK. AIR MASS AND MEAN FLOW FIELDS WILL BE IN PLACE TO SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO...WITH ELEVATED MUCAPE 2000-2500 J/KG POSSIBLE INVOF KS/OK BORDER AT BEGINNING OF PERIOD...ALONG WITH MOIST 30-40 KT LLJ. PRIMARY THREAT WOULD BE CONCENTRATED POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND...WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE. SUCH A COMPLEX MAY SURVIVE LONG ENOUGH TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN OK AND REINTENSIFY AGAIN OVER AR BY AFTERNOON HEATING PERIOD...THOUGH SEVERE THREAT WILL BE MORE CONDITIONAL WITH TIME AND WITH EWD EXTENT. SUBSEQUENT SEVERE THREAT OVER OK AND PERHAPS TX PANHANDLE WILL DEPEND ON POSITION AND STRENGTH OF STABILIZING OUTFLOW EFFECTS FROM SUCH A COMPLEX. IN ANY EVENT...UNMODIFIED AIR MASS SHOULD DESTABILIZE FAVORABLY BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON...FROM CO FRONT RANGE/FOOTHILLS REGION SWD INTO NM -- AND PERHAPS EWD INVOF FRONTAL/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER TX PANHANDLE. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE ENHANCED BY ELY/UPSLOPE FLOW COMPONENT...SUPPORTING POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS. ANOTHER MCS MAY EVOLVE FROM AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION THIS REGION AND MOVE SEWD ACROSS SRN HIGH PLAINS. ..EDWARDS.. 07/05/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 7 07:35:56 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 07 Jul 2004 02:35:56 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200407060736.i667ad125011@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 060734 SWODY2 SPC AC 060733 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0233 AM CDT TUE JUL 06 2004 VALID 071200Z - 081200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 N PNC 20 SW HUT 45 N RSL 15 WSW HSI 35 SSW OLU 25 E LNK 25 E STJ 40 N SZL 50 SSE SZL SGF 30 SSW JLN 10 N PNC. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW ART 10 E IPT 30 NNW CXY 20 SW MRB 20 N SSU 35 SE LOZ 25 SSW LOZ 30 N LOZ 20 WNW UNI 35 SW CAK 40 NNE CLE. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NW MOT 45 E MLS 30 NW BPI 35 ESE BYI 10 SSW TWF 50 ESE BOI 65 NE BOI 20 S 3DU 20 SW GTF 30 NW HVR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NW DVL 40 NNW 81V 45 SSE LND 50 SW RWL 50 WSW COS 30 SSE PUB 20 ESE LHX 20 N GLD 15 WNW VTN 30 SE 9V9 30 SE SUX 25 W IRK 15 NE JEF 25 NNW UNO 20 WNW POF 15 S OWB 35 WNW LUK 25 WSW FDY 35 ENE PLN ...CONT... 60 W 3B1 10 SSE PSM ...CONT... 10 SSE P07 30 NNW ALM 60 W GCN 60 NNE NID 35 NNW BIH 35 NNW LOL 60 E BKE 65 N 3DU 55 NE CTB. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN ROCKIES AND NRN HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL AND NRN APPALACHIAN MTNS... ...NRN ROCKIES/NRN HIGH PLAINS... A BROAD UPPER-TROUGH WILL DIG SEWD INTO THE NWRN STATES ON DAY 2 AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SEWD ACROSS MT AND ID. THIS WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AS STRONG LIFT SPREADS EWD ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH. A MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX AROUND 60 KT WILL CREATE STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING LAPSE RATES WILL BE STEEP. INVERTED-V SOUNDING PROFILES AND 500 MB TEMPS IN THE -13 TO -15 C RANGE WILL FAVOR A HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL WITH THE STRONGER STORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ...CNTRL PLAINS... THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL SLIDE EWD ON DAY 2 AND AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD IN THE GREAT PLAINS STATES. STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL OCCUR AS A STATIONARY FRONT IN THE SRN PLAINS LIFTS NWD INTO KS DURING THE DAY. A CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...STRONG LIFT OVER THE WARM FRONT AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES IN THE EVENING SHOULD CAUSE ELEVATED STORMS TO INITIATE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. MODERATE DEEP SHEAR AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN A POTENTIAL FOR BOW ECHOES WITH WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL. IF AN MCS CAN GET GOING...IT SHOULD RIDE SEWD ALONG THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT FROM SE NEB ACROSS ERN KS AND WRN MO. ...CNTRL AND NRN APPALACHIAN MTNS... A WELL-DEVELOPED UPPER-TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS THE NRN MS VALLEY WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON DAY 2. THIS WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE OH VALLEY DURING THE DAY. STRONG ASCENT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND ADEQUATE SFC HEATING FOR MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT IN STORM INITIATION ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW 25 TO 30 KT OF DEEP SHEAR WHICH WILL BE ENOUGH FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELL STORMS. UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES WILL RESULT IN A WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY AS THE STORMS MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE INSTABILITY AXIS IN ERN OH...WRN PA AND WRN WV. ..BROYLES.. 07/06/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 6 17:42:05 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 06 Jul 2004 12:42:05 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200407061742.i66Hgm124881@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 061740 SWODY2 SPC AC 061740 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1240 PM CDT TUE JUL 06 2004 VALID 071200Z - 081200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PNC RSL HSI OLU 40 N SZL 50 SSE SZL SGF 30 SSW JLN PNC. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MSS 30 WSW ALB TTN SSU BKW HTS ZZV 40 NNE CLE. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 N DVL 45 W JMS MBG 81V WRL COD 25 ESE LVM 3HT LWT 65 NNW GGW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 W 3B1 10 SSE PSM ...CONT... 80 N GFK 45 NNW ABR 40 WNW PIR 35 SSE LND 50 WSW COS EHA DDC MCK VTN 30 SE 9V9 30 SE SUX 25 N IRK 40 NE COU 40 SSE VIH POF 15 S OWB 35 WNW LUK 25 WSW FDY 35 ENE PLN ...CONT... 20 SSW P07 30 NNW ALM P38 50 N NID 40 SW TVL SVE 60 E BKE MSO 70 NW FCA. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS MID ATLANTIC/NRN APPALACHIANS REGION... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS CENTRAL PLAINS/LOWER MO VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS NRN HIGH PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... IN MID-UPPER LEVELS...NRN STREAM PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE PROGRESSIVE WITH MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER GREAT LAKES AND NRN ROCKIES REGIONS...AND MINOR/CONVECTIVELY-ENHANCED/INDUCED PERTURBATIONS POSSIBLE FARTHER S FROM SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS TO ATLANTIC COAST. UPPER LOW NOW LOCATED OVER SRN MN IS FCST TO ANCHOR TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE EWD SLOWLY TOWARD E-CENTRAL ONT...LH AND MIDDLE OH VALLEY DAY-2. UPSTREAM SYSTEM -- NOW EVIDENT ON MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY AS LARGE CYCLONE OVER COASTAL BC/AK PANHANDLE...WILL MOVE ACROSS CANADIAN ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS DURING THIS PERIOD. SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD ROTATE THROUGH BASE OF CYCLONE -- ACROSS WA...NRN ID...NWRN MT AND SRN SASK. AT SFC...OCCLUDED CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE ACROSS MUCH OF SRN/ERN ONT THROUGH PERIOD...WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRAILING SWWD ACROSS OH VALLEY REGION AND STALLING ACROSS OZARKS REGION. THIS BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND NWWD AS WARM FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS AND NRN HIGH PLAINS...INTO SRN SASK/ERN MT SFC LOW INDUCED BY NWRN STATES SYSTEM. WRN COLD FRONT SHOULD SWEEP SEWD ACROSS MOST OF MT...ID AND NRN/WRN WY BY END OF PERIOD. WEAK SFC LOW MAY ALSO DEVELOP OVER PIEDMONT REGION OF CAROLINAS...AMIDST PREFRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING NWD OVER PA. ...NERN CONUS... THERE IS CONDITIONAL POTENTIAL FOR A CONCENTRATED DAMAGING WIND EVENT OVER PORTIONS UPPER OH VALLEY...NRN APPALACHIANS AND ADJACENT PORTIONS MID ATLANTIC STATES. SEVERE THREAT OVER MUCH OF THIS AREA COULD BE STRONGLY INFLUENCED BY EFFECTS OF DAY-1 COMPLEXES ON AIR MASS...AND THAT IS PRECLUDING LARGER PROBABILITIES AND CATEGORICAL RISK ATTM. ALSO...OVERNIGHT DAY-1 MCS MAY CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF THIS REGION EARLY IN DAY-2 PERIOD WITH WIND DAMAGE BEING MAIN THREAT. PRECONVECTIVE AIR MASS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR BOW ECHOES AND ALSO OCCASIONAL LARGE HAIL. SFC DEW POINTS MID 60S TO LOW 70S SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE 1500-2000 J/KG BY LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...AWAY FROM PRE-EXISTING OUTFLOW POOLS. VERTICAL WIND PROFILES ARE FCST TO BE ROUGHLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WITH 20-30 KT DEEP-LAYER SPEED SHEAR. ...CENTRAL PLAINS/LOWER MO VALLEY... SCATTERED TSTMS MAY DEVELOP LATE AFTERNOON -- OR MORE LIKELY AFTER DARK -- AND EVOLVE INTO MCS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS POSSIBLE. AFTERNOON AIR MASS WILL BE POTENTIALLY VERY UNSTABLE INVOF AND S OF WARM FRONT OVER OK AND SRN KS...AS RICHLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER RETURNS NWD ACROSS SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS. SFC DEW POINTS MID 60S TO LOW 70S WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES 2000-3500 J/KG AMIDST 8-9 DEG C/KM MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER...EXPECT STRONG CAPPING --- AMIDST WLY/WNWLY FLOW ALOFT AND INVOF MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE -- TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE BEFORE DARK. NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL WAA SHOULD SUPPORT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITH ELEVATED MUCAPE 1500-2500 J/KG POSSIBLE...AND STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. ...NRN ROCKIES...NRN HIGH PLAINS... WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS MAY DEVELOP DURING AFTERNOON INVOF SFC COLD FRONT...MOVING EWD ACROSS ERN MT/WRN DAKOTAS AREA AFTER DARK...WITH DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL POSSIBLE. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES AND INSTABILITY ARE EACH FCST TO STRENGTHEN THROUGHOUT DAY INVOF FRONT...AS TROUGH ALOFT APCHS AND AS DIABATIC HEATING STEEPENS BOUNDARY LAYER LAPSE RATES. MAIN LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE LACK OF RICHER MOISTURE...HOWEVER...SFC DEW POINTS GENERALLY IN UPPER 40S AND LOW-MID 50S F WILL CONTRIBUTE TO 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPES ABOVE DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYERS. THIS ALONG WITH 40-50 KT MIDLEVEL FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT AND PROPAGATION. INCREASINGLY MOIST 30-40 KT LLJ SHOULD SUPPORT CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER PORTIONS WRN ND AND/OR NWRN SD AFTER 08/00Z. ...TIDEWATER REGION... ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS MAY DEVELOP DURING AFTERNOON... MULTICELLULAR AND PULSE IN MODE...WITH A FEW DAMAGING WIND EVENTS POSSIBLE. PRIMARY AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE E OF LEE/PREFRONTAL TROUGH...WHERE INSOLATION AND SFC MOISTENING SHOULD LEAD TO ROUGHLY 1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE. SEVERE POTENTIAL DOES NOT APPEAR SUFFICIENTLY ORGANIZED TO WARRANT CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK ATTM. ...SRN HIGH PLAINS... OROGRAPHICALLY AIDED CONVECTION SHOULD FORM IN STRONGEST DIABATIC HEATING PERIOD OF MID-LATE AFTERNOON. OTHER TSTMS MAY FORM ALONG BOUNDARIES LEFT BEHIND BY DAY-1 CONVECTION. DEEP SUBCLOUD LAYERS AND STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED...WITH MLCAPES 1000-2000 J/KG POSSIBLE. HAIL AND A FEW STRONG-SEVERE DOWNDRAFTS MAY OCCUR...BUT LOW-MIDLEVEL FLOW AND VERTICAL SHEAR EACH APPEAR TOO WEAK TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED SEVERE EVENT. ..EDWARDS.. 07/06/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 7 07:13:19 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 07 Jul 2004 02:13:19 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200407070714.i677E1115950@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 070710 SWODY2 SPC AC 070709 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0209 AM CDT WED JUL 07 2004 VALID 081200Z - 091200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S AXN 20 WSW MLI 30 NE ALN 20 NNW PAH 40 S PAH 30 ENE JBR 20 SW UNO 20 ESE OJC 35 SSW FNB 45 S HSI 25 N MCK 20 ENE SNY 60 SSE 81V 20 E 81V 20 E REJ 30 NW ABR 40 S AXN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNW ELO 45 E DLH 35 S OSH 20 NNW SDF 50 N CSV 25 SE 5I3 15 S BFD 45 NE ROC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S PSX 10 NNW LFK 35 SE HOT 15 ESE FYV 35 SSW EMP 30 SE RSL 45 SSW HLC 50 WSW GLD 15 SSE DEN 25 NE ALS 40 N 4SL 25 SSW FMN 25 S PGA 20 E P38 15 ENE ELY 20 WSW IDA 35 S LVM 75 NE BIL 75 NNW ISN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS NE/SD SEWD TO MID MS VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN AS HEIGHTS RISE AND FLOW WEAKENS S OF 40N WITH STRONGER WLYS NEAR CANADIAN BORDER. VIGOROUS TROUGH NOW MOVING ACROSS SWRN CANADA SHIFTS INTO PRAIRIE PROVINCES WITH FAST WLYS FROM NRN ROCKIES EWD TO UPPER MS VALLEY BY THU NIGHT AS FLAT RIDGE PROGRESSES EWD TO WRN GREAT LAKES. TROUGH MOVES ACROSS NERN U.S. REACHING NEW ENGLAND AND OFFSHORE MID ATLANTIC BY 12Z FRI. ...NEB/SD SEWD TO MID MS/LWR MO VALLEY... LEE LOW DEVELOPS CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AS STEEP LAPSE RATES SPREAD EWD ACROSS SD/NE/KS ON SRN FRINGE OF WLYS. THIS WILL PROVIDE A CAP TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MUCH OF THE DAY...HOWEVER IT WILL ALSO ALLOW THE AIR MASS TO BECOME EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AS VERY MOIST AIRMASS MOVES NWD ON THE SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. MODELS ARE INDICATING BY AFTERNOON...MLCAPES IN EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN NEB INTO KS AS DEWPOINTS RISE TO ABOVE 70F AND 850MB DEWPOINTS PROGGED TO NEAR 20C. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP BOTH IN THE UPSLOPE FLOW IN WRN NE/SD AREA ON THE N SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW AND IN THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE EDGE OF THE CAPE SOMEWHERE VICINITY ERN NE/SD BORDER. THIS SECOND AREA HAS THE GREATEST INSTABILITY WHICH IF REALIZED WOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND AT LEAST AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT. A SEVERE MCS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE BY THU NIGHT AND PROPAGATE IN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME ON THE EDGE OF THE CAP SEWD ACROSS IA INTO NRN MO. ADDITIONAL STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS THROUGH LOWER MO VALLEY WHERE CAP WILL BE WEAKEST AND THE AIR MASS STILL VERY UNSTABLE UNDER A WEAK WARM ADVECTION PATTERN. ...NERN U.S... MODELS SUGGEST THAT LAPSE RATES AROUND 6C/KM AND MLCAPES NOT MUCH GREATER THAN 1000 J/KG WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE FRONT. GIVEN THE 30-40 KT OF MID LEVEL FLOW WITH THE TROUGH AS FAR S AS DELMARVA...AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ..HALES.. 07/07/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 7 17:32:24 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 07 Jul 2004 12:32:24 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200407071733.i67HX3126477@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 071730 SWODY2 SPC AC 071729 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1229 PM CDT WED JUL 07 2004 VALID 081200Z - 091200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM REJ BKX 30 SSW CID UIN 40 ENE VIH 30 N UNO SGF CNU RSL GLD 30 E DEN CYS 81V REJ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM INL CGX LUK HTS CRW EKN 35 SE BFD 35 N ROC ...CONT... 95 W CAR BHB ...CONT... 20 E CRP 50 ESE SAT 35 SSE TPL 60 WNW LFK TYR PRX OKC GAG 45 ESE P07 MRF 40 WSW EHA LAA PUB ALS DRO CEZ 4BL 4HV 50 NE U24 MLD WEY BIL 50 WNW MLS 80 NNW ISN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 S GBN GBN PHX SAD 70 SSW DMN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO LOWER MO VALLEY REGION... ...SYNOPSIS... IN MID-UPPER LEVELS...NRN STREAM PATTERN IS FCST TO FLATTEN SOMEWHAT. CLOSED GREAT LAKES LOW SHOULD MOVE EWD TOWARD SRN QUE AND WEAKEN SLIGHTLY...BUT STILL WITH A BELT OF 70-90 KT 250 MB FLOW AND 40-50 KT WINDS AT 500 MB...THE LATTER AS FAR S AS CENTRAL/NRN VA. SIMILAR WINDS ALOFT ALSO SHOULD SPREAD EWD ACROSS NRN PLAINS AND MN...SE OF CYCLONE NOW EVIDENT OVER BC. THAT VORTEX SHOULD DRIFT EWD ACROSS CANADIAN HIGH PLAINS DAY-2...OCCLUDED AND WITH DEAMPLIFICATION OF JET CURVATURE TO ITS S. SHORTWAVE FORMED BY ETA OVER KC REGION LATE IN PERIOD IS IN FEEDBACK RESPONSE TO INTENSE MODEL CONVECTIVE PRECIP DEVELOPMENT. AT SFC...OUTFLOW-MODULATED FRONTAL ZONE NOW OVER WRN KY...AR AND OK IS FCST TO RETURN NWD ACROSS KS/NEB AS WARM FRONT...CONNECTING TO LEE CYCLONE OVER NWRN NEB BY 08/12Z. BY LATE AFTERNOON THIS LOW SHOULD SHIFT SWD TOWARD KS/CO BORDER REGION ALONG DECELERATING COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE SEWD FROM NRN HIGH PLAINS. BY END OF PERIOD...QUASISTATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD LIE FROM CENTRAL/NRN MO OR SRN IA WWD ACROSS KS/NEB BORDER AREA...THROUGH SFC LOW...AND WWD OVER ERN CO. FARTHER E...OCCLUDED FRONT SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY EWD FROM HUDSON VALLEY REGION ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. ...CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS TO MID MS VALLEY... THROUGH AFTERNOON INTO EVENING...ELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL ADVECT MOISTURE UPSLOPE...COMBINING WITH AFTERNOON HEATING OF HIGHER TERRAIN TO WEAKEN CINH. WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD FORM FROM BLACK HILLS AREA SWD INTO NERN CO. SOME OF THESE SHOULD BECOME SUPERCELLULAR GIVEN 0-6 KM AGL SHEARS RANGING FROM 65 KT OVER BLACK HILLS AREA TO 35-40 KT IN CO. ACTIVITY SHOULD BE RATHER HIGH BASED ATOP DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...SUPPORTING BOTH LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY SUBSEQUENTLY MAY REACH CENTRAL PORTIONS NEB/SD AND NWRN/N-CENTRAL KS MAINTAINING WIND/HAIL THREAT ON NOSE OF 50 KT WRN BRANCH LLJ. CONDITIONAL RISK EXISTS FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE HAIL AND PERHAPS TORNADOES FARTHER E. AFTERNOON INITIATION INVOF WARM FRONT...OVER ERN NEB REGION...IS MUCH MORE IN DOUBT BECAUSE OF POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT CAPPING. BUT IF IT OCCURS...EXPLOSIVE SUPERCELL GENESIS IS POSSIBLE. SHORTWAVE RIDGING SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF DAY...AND WLYS ALOFT WILL ADVECT ELEVATED MIXED-LAYER AIRMASS OVERHEAD FROM HIGH PLAINS AND ROCKIES...MAINTAINING STOUT CAP. MODEL FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT CINH SHOULD WEAKEN BY LATE AFTERNOON ALONG FRONT...AND FRONTAL LIFT MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO YIELD DEEP CONVECTION. ANY TSTMS THAT DO DEVELOP INVOF WARM FRONT SHOULD BECOME SEVERE RAPIDLY IN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY FAVORABLY BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW AND EXTREME INSTABILITY. EVAPOTRANSPIRATION AIDED SFC DEW POINTS IN MID 60S TO LOW 70S AND 9 DEG C/KM MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES 3500-5500 J/KG...AND 0-3 KM SRH 150-300 J/KG IS POSSIBLE WHERE THERE IS SFC-BASED BUOYANCY. WHETHER AS EXTENSION/EVOLUTION OF AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT OR WITH LATER/ELEVATED INITIATION N OF WARM FRONT...A TSTM COMPLEX SHOULD FORM AFTER DARK INVOF LOWER MO VALLEY WITH SEVERE WIND AND HAIL POSSIBLE. ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE SEWD TO SWD ACROSS PORTIONS ERN KS/MO BASED ON ERN BRANCH OF 30-40 KT LLJ...AND EFFECT OF RELATED BACKBUILDING ON MCS MOTION VECTOR FCSTS. ...NERN CONUS... PROGS INDICATE AT LEAST MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND DIURNAL HEATING E OF OCCLUDED FRONT TO SUPPORT TSTM DEVELOPMENT. LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE FCST TO BE RELATIVELY WEAK...BUT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR MAY FAVOR A FEW MULTICELL CLUSTERS OR LINE SEGMENTS WITH STRONG GUSTS...AND PERHAPS ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE. ...SRN HIGH PLAINS... ISOLATED TSTMS MAY DEVELOP LATE AFTERNOON INVOF DRYLINE...ATOP STRONGLY HEATED AND DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYERS. CAPPING SHOULD RESTRICT COVERAGE BUT ANY CONVECTION THAT FORMS MAY BRIEFLY PRODUCE HAIL/GUSTS NEAR SEVERE LEVELS. WEAK LOW-MIDLEVEL FLOW/SHEAR SHOULD RESTRICT ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL. ..EDWARDS.. 07/07/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 8 07:32:03 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 08 Jul 2004 02:32:03 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200407080732.i687Wj105678@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 080730 SWODY2 SPC AC 080729 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0229 AM CDT THU JUL 08 2004 VALID 091200Z - 101200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 ESE ELO 20 E MSP 10 SSE SPW OFK 25 NW BUB 35 WSW VTN 25 SSW BIS 70 NNW DVL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM BRO 40 SSW ALI 30 NNW ALI 45 SSE AUS 40 NW LFK 25 SSW HOT 25 NE LIT 15 WNW POF 45 N COU 20 SW LWD 15 NNW SLN 45 NE LAA 25 N TAD 50 NNW TCC 15 SW HOB 20 WSW P07. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WSW FHU 10 NNE GBN 40 SSE LAS 45 NE DRA 45 E EKO 15 WSW MLD 45 WNW BPI 30 SSW WRL 35 SSW 4BQ 45 NNW ISN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 N ANJ 15 NNE MBS 20 WSW ARB 35 W CMH 55 W HTS 30 NE JKL 30 NE TRI 35 NNE HKY 20 ENE SOP 40 E EWN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY... ...NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY... BROAD RIDGE CONTINUES TO BECOME MORE DOMINATE OVER THE CONUS AS HEIGHTS SLOWLY RISE CENTRAL U.S. AND STRONGER WLYS RETREAT TO NRN BORDER STATES. SURFACE AND UPPER LOW SRN CANADIAN PROVINCES GRADUALLY WEAKENS AND MOVES EWD HAVING LITTLE EFFECT ON THE LOWER 48. LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS E OF ROCKIES MAINTAINING A SLY FLOW OF VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS MUCH OF PLAINS. MID LEVEL WARMING ALONG WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT SHOULD CAP OFF MUCH OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL OVER ALL BUT THE NRN PLAINS. HOWEVER WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR OR ABOVE 70F SPREADING NWD POSSIBLY INTO THE DAKOTAS...AND PRESENCE OF STEEP 850-500 MB LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 8C/KM...A POTENTIALLY VERY TO EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN MUCH OF THE NRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. HAVE LIMITED THE SLIGHT RISK TO NRN PLAINS...WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS STRONGEST ALONG THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE WLYS ALONG INTERNATIONAL BORDER. ADDITIONAL THE MID LEVEL CAPPING WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS FURTHER S IN PLAINS. DETAILS OF THE SEVERE THREAT WILL HAVE TO BE LEFT FOR LATER FORECASTS FOR THIS PERIOD...AS REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM DAY 1 WILL LIKELY PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE IN INITIATION FRIDAY PM. THE EXPECTED STRONG HEATING COULD STILL RESULT IN LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING SEVERE AS FAR S AS KS/NE BORDER GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY. HOWEVER CAP AND WEAK SHEAR WILL CONFINE THREAT TO ISOLATED PULSE STORMS. ..HALES.. 07/08/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 9 08:10:09 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 09 Jul 2004 03:10:09 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200407090810.i698Ag118367@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 090806 SWODY2 SPC AC 090805 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0305 AM CDT FRI JUL 09 2004 VALID 101200Z - 111200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WNW INL 30 SE BJI 45 ENE STC 35 N MCW 50 S SPW YKN 55 E ANW 45 NE MCK 15 NE GLD 25 SSW AKO 40 ENE CYS 15 S 81V 45 NNE SHR 80 ENE LWT 60 NNE OLF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S IPL 20 ENE LAS 30 ENE CDC 45 ESE DPG 40 E EKO 65 NNE 4LW 10 NW DLS 65 ENE BLI ...CONT... 70 ENE CMX 20 NNW RHI 20 ESE VOK 35 NE CGX 20 NE PIT 15 SSE ACY ...CONT... 55 S CRP 25 W VCT 55 SW LFK 15 E TYR 10 WSW MLC 30 S PNC 50 ENE GAG 35 NNE PVW 20 NNW MAF 45 ESE P07. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE BOS 25 NW POU 50 WSW ART. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE NRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ...NRN ROCKIES ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS... REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER MODERATE WLY FLOW ALOFT AS LARGE RIDGING HOLDS OVER THE SRN 2/3S OF THE U.S. MCS MAY BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD INVOF THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF ERN ND/WRN MN WHICH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS ENEWD THROUGH THE MORNING. HOWEVER...OUTFLOW FROM THIS SYSTEM AND WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT FORECAST /EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD ACROSS ND DURING THE DAY/ WILL LIKELY RE-DEVELOP STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER ERN PORTIONS OF THE SLIGHT RISK. ETA SUGGESTS MCS MAY RE-INTENSIFY ON ITS SWRN FLANK DURING THE AFTERNOON AS SYSTEM PROPAGATES ALONG FRINGE OF STEEP LAPSE RATES/CAP EXTENDING OVER THE GREAT PLAINS. IF THIS OCCURS... A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WOULD OVERSPREAD PORTIONS OF MN AND POSSIBLY NRN IA AS FEED OF MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY DEVELOPS. MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY WILL ALSO DEVELOP IN WAKE OF MORNING STORMS OVER ERN MT AND THE WRN DAKOTAS...WHERE CONVERGENCE WILL INCREASE INVOF WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT AND NEAR DEVELOPING LEE CYCLONE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BECOME QUITE STRONG AS IT IS AIDED BY SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORECAST BY BOTH THE ETA AND GFS TO OVERSPREAD THE NRN PLAINS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 40-50 KT ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS WHICH WILL BE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR SUPERCELLS AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES WITH THE INITIAL DEVELOPMENT. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO ORGANIZE DURING THE EVENING INTO A FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS AS SLY LLJ INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO EJECTING UPPER TROUGH. SHOULD THIS ACTIVITY REMAIN ROOTED NEAR THE BOUNDARY LAYER... DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE QUITE LIKELY ACROSS PART OF THE NRN PLAINS AFTER DARK. OTHERWISE...VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY SUGGESTS A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL. FARTHER WEST INTO THE NRN ROCKIES...ETA AND GFS MAINTAIN ELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW INTO CENTRAL MT. THIS WILL LIKELY SUSTAIN A RELATIVELY MOIST /I.E. SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S/ BOUNDARY LAYER...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME RATHER STRONG AROUND UPPER LOW SETTLING INTO THE PAC NW. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND ENHANCE DEEP ASCENT OVER PORTIONS OF THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND THE NRN ROCKIES. SHOULD SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY DEVELOP...A SEPARATE AREA OF SEVERE PROBABILITIES/SLIGHT MAY NEED TO BE INCLUDED FARTHER WEST THAN THE MORE EVIDENT SEVERE THREAT INTO THE PLAINS. ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE SRN PLAINS... VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODEST WSWLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY. THIS SUGGESTS STORMS DEVELOPING EWD OFF LEE TROUGH/HIGHER TERRAIN MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS EWD INTO WRN NEB/ERN CO THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. ETA ADVERTISES A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 25-30 KT MID LEVEL SPEED MAX OVERSPREADING ERN CO INTO OK PANHANDLE/SWRN KS LATE IN THE DAY. SHOULD THIS MATERIALIZE...ACTIVITY MAY ORGANIZE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND SUSTAIN A SEVERE THREAT EWD WELL INTO THE EVENING. A SLIGHT RISK MAY NEED TO EXTEND INTO PORTIONS OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS IN LATER OUTLOOKS IF WEAK MAXIMUM IN MID LEVEL WINDS BECOMES MORE CERTAIN. ...SRN GREAT LAKES INTO THE UPPER OH RIVER VALLEY... SURFACE WARM FRONT ALONG LEADING EDGE OF A VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR WILL SHIFT NWD INTO THE SRN GREAT LAKES/UPPER OH VALLEY REGION SATURDAY. COMBINATION OF SURFACE FRONT AND LOCATION OF 15-20 KT WNWLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL THEREFORE SUPPORT AT LEAST LOW PROBABILITIES OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER...WEAK LAPSE RATES AND SFC-6 KM SHEAR AOB 20 KT MAY LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT. ...FL... MODELS SUGGEST ENELY MID LEVEL WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN A BIT SATURDAY WITH 15-20 KT OF FLOW OVERSPREADING MUCH OF THE PENINSULA. WITH MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES NEAR -8C AND H85 TO H7 LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.5 C/KM...REGION MAY BE RATHER ACTIVE CONVECTIVELY WITH AT LEAST LOW PROBABILITIES OF A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ..EVANS.. 07/09/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 9 17:18:12 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 09 Jul 2004 12:18:12 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200407091718.i69HIi127681@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 091716 SWODY2 SPC AC 091715 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1215 PM CDT FRI JUL 09 2004 VALID 101200Z - 111200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WNW INL 30 ESE STC 25 NNW FOD 25 NE OMA 30 E GLD 25 SSW AKO 40 ENE CYS 15 S 81V 40 WNW 4BQ 50 S GGW 75 N OLF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW BRO 50 E SAT 55 NE CLL 15 E TYR 40 NE ADM 25 SE END 50 WSW END 25 NE PVW 20 NNW MAF 40 SE P07 ...CONT... 85 S GBN 20 SW FLG 45 SSE U17 15 S PUC 45 E EKO 65 WSW BNO 15 NNW DLS 65 ENE BLI ...CONT... 70 ENE CMX 20 NNW RHI 20 ESE VOK 35 NE CGX 20 NE PIT 15 SSE ACY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE BOS 25 NW POU 50 WSW ART. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY TO SOME DEGREE ON SATURDAY ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF STATES WITH DOMINANT RIDGE REMAINING IN TACT ACROSS THE SRN TWO-THIRDS OF THE NATION. MID/UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION CURRENTLY OVER SRN BRITISH COLUMBIA/WA COASTS WILL OPEN AND LIFT NEWD ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM FROM THE GULF OF AK. MEANWHILE...SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NV THIS MORNING WILL BE ENTRAINED INTO FASTER FLOW REGIME ASSOCIATED WITH PACIFIC NW SYSTEM...ALLOWING IT TO TRANSLATE NEWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY... SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING INTO SRN AZ WILL LIFT NEWD AROUND PERIPHERY OF UPPER HIGH AND INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS DURING TIME OF PEAK HEATING. THOUGH MODELS SHOW DIFFERING SOLUTIONS ON WEAK SURFACE PATTERN ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS...NCEP SREF MEAN FORECAST SUGGESTS DEEPENING SURFACE LOW AND ATTENDANT FRONT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EWD OUT OF THE NRN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS DURING THE DAY WHILE LEE TROUGH IS MAINTAINED THROUGH THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS. FARTHER E...NW-SE ORIENTED WARM/QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS OH VALLEY WITH A POSSIBLE WWD EXTENSION ACROSS NRN MO/SRN IA NWWD TO SURFACE LOW OVER WRN SD. ...NRN ROCKIES ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS... STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MOIST A BOUNDARY-LAYER WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON FROM THE DAKOTAS SWD INTO THE NEB WITH MLCAPES APPROACHING 2000-3000 J/KG. FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF NV SHORTWAVE TROUGH COUPLED WITH CONVERGENCE INVOF SURFACE LOW AND ATTENDANT FRONT SHOULD AID IN TSTM DEVELOPMENT BY AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF ERN MT INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS. PRESENCE OF MODESTLY STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW OF 25-35KTS ATOP SELY BOUNDARY-LAYER WINDS WILL RESULT IN 35-45KTS OF DEEP SHEAR ACROSS THIS AREA...SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELL STORM STRUCTURES. LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE INITIALLY...WITH MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT EVOLVING INTO PRIMARILY DAMAGING WINDS AS FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS DEVELOPS EWD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS OVERNIGHT. FARTHER W...STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF OPENING UPPER WAVE OVER THE PACIFIC NW WILL SPREAD NEWD ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THOUGH VEERING LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL TEND TO ERODE MOISTURE CONTENT...STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG SHEAR PROFILES MAY PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. IF LATER MODEL RUNS SUGGEST THAT GREATER INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP THAN IS CURRENTLY FORECAST...AN UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK MAY BE REQUIRED. ...CNTRL PLAINS SWD INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS... STRONG HEATING ALONG LEE TROUGH IN CONJUNCTION WITH FORCING AHEAD OF APPROACHING AZ SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD ALLOW FOR CAP REMOVAL AND RESULTANT TSTM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN AIRMASS CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG. THOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK /I.E. AOB 20-30KTS/...DEGREE OF INSTABILITY SHOULD PROMOTE STRONG UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL. STORMS MAY TRY TO CONGEAL INTO CLUSTERS/SMALL MCS AHEAD OF MIGRATORY SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THREAT EXTENDING EWD ACROSS NEB/NRN KS OVERNIGHT. ...LOWER MO/OH VALLEYS... VERY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS WILL PERSIST S OF QUASI-STATIONARY OR WARM FRONT STRETCHED ACROSS THE REGION WITH DEWPOINTS OF 70-75F. THIS MOISTURE COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO POCKETS OF STRONG INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES APPROACHING 2500-3500 J/KG. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL REMAIN WEAK...HOWEVER THE STRONG INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORM CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. ..MEAD.. 07/09/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 10 07:18:20 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 10 Jul 2004 02:18:20 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200407100718.i6A7Io101165@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 100716 SWODY2 SPC AC 100715 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0215 AM CDT SAT JUL 10 2004 VALID 111200Z - 121200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 N DVL 45 SSW GFK 55 NW IWD ESC 10 N LAN 40 NE LAF 15 WSW DNV 25 W BRL 30 SW FOD 20 WNW HON 30 NNW GCC 70 N SHR 55 NNW GGW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW LRD 45 ESE AUS 35 N MCB 20 N JAN 45 SE PGO 10 N FSM 35 NE SZL 15 SSE STJ 15 W MHK 35 SSE DDC CVS 25 W INK 20 SSE P07 ...CONT... 30 SSE IPL 30 S IGM 65 SE PGA 35 WSW MTJ CYS 50 ENE DGW 30 NE WRL 30 WNW WEY 35 NNW BOI 35 SE 4LW 30 NE RBL 45 W MHS 55 NNW MFR 65 SW PDT 15 ESE PUW 90 NW FCA ...CONT... 35 N ROC 40 WNW ELM 35 ESE IPT 25 E ACY. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE RIDGE WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SRN U.S. SUNDAY... WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NRN TIER STATES FROM THE PAC NW INTO THE GREAT LAKES. HERE...A SERIES OF QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL FOCUS POSSIBLE MCS DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT STEADILY NWD INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH ERN EXTENT LIFTING MORE SLOWLY INTO THE DELMARVA. IN THE SRN ROCKIES AND SWRN STATES...THE PATTERN WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MONSOONAL WITH RATHER MOIST ENELY MID LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING AROUND BUILDING ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER CO/NRN NM. ...NRN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES... REGION WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE SEVERAL STRONG TO SEVERE MCSS DURING THE PERIOD. INITIAL DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY AND WRN GREAT LAKES DURING THE MORNING/AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MORNING MCS MAY HAVE A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER... ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT AND LOW CENTER MAY INITIATE CONVECTION BY THE MID AFTERNOON AS FEED OF STRONG INSTABILITY DEVELOPS ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SWRN EXTENT OF STORM POTENTIAL WILL BECOME MORE LIMITED INTO STRONG CAPPING INTO IA/NERN NEB. HOWEVER WHERE STORMS FORM...SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL FAVOR A THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS. OVERALL EVOLUTION INTO A BOWING SYSTEM MAY OCCUR AS WNWLY FLOW OVERSPREADS WARM FRONT...WITH EVENTUAL MOTION INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ALONG THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY INTO THE EVENING. STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL JET IS FORECAST BY BOTH THE ETA AND GFS TO MOVE INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THOUGH THIS SYSTEM IS PROMISING IN ITS TIMING AND STRENGTH OF MID LEVEL JET FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...SOME CONCERN REMAINS REGARDING INSTABILITY IN WAKE OF MORNING SYSTEM. ATTM... EXPECT AT LEAST A NARROW AXIS OF SELY FLOW AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP FROM WRN SD INTO ERN MT/WRN ND BY LATE AFTERNOON. THUS...ANOTHER AREA OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS...IS EXPECTED INTO THE EARLY EVENING. EWD THREAT OF SURFACE BASED DEVELOPMENT ACROSS ND DURING THE EVENING WILL BE LIMITED. HOWEVER...INCREASING SSWLY LLJ MAY SUPPORT A LATER DURATION TO ANY SUBSEQUENT SEVERE ACTIVITY INTO WRN/CENTRAL SD AFTER DARK. ..EVANS.. 07/10/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 10 17:04:43 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 10 Jul 2004 12:04:43 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200407101705.i6AH5A130923@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 101702 SWODY2 SPC AC 101701 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1201 PM CDT SAT JUL 10 2004 VALID 111200Z - 121200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE RRT 15 N HIB 35 S IWD 35 S MTW 15 SE CGX 15 NNW DEC 50 E OMA 45 SSE 9V9 30 NNW GCC 70 N SHR 55 NNW GGW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 N ROC 40 WNW ELM 35 ESE IPT 25 E ACY ...CONT... 25 WNW LRD 45 ESE AUS 35 N MCB 20 N JAN 45 SE PGO 10 N FSM 35 NE SZL 15 SSE STJ 15 W MHK 35 SSE DDC CVS 25 W INK 20 SSE P07 ...CONT... 30 SSE IPL 30 S IGM 65 SE PGA 35 WSW MTJ CYS 50 ENE DGW 30 NE WRL 30 WNW WEY 35 NNW BOI 35 SE 4LW 30 NE RBL 45 W MHS 55 NNW MFR 65 SW PDT 15 ESE PUW 90 NW FCA. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES... ...SYNOPSIS... ACTIVE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL PERSIST TO THE N OF DOMINANT RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN CONUS THROUGH THE DAY 2 PERIOD. SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS SHOULD BE LOCATED OVER THE UPPER MS/LOWER MO VALLEYS INITIALLY. THIS FEATURE WILL TRANSLATE ESEWD INTO THE SRN GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MEANWHILE...VIGOROUS UPSTREAM TROUGH WILL LEFT NEWD FROM THE NRN ROCKIES INTO SRN SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA WITH SRN FRINGE OF STRONG ASCENT OVERSPREADING ERN MT AND ND ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...PRIMARY LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE MT SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES/DEVELOPS EWD FROM ERN MT TO VICINITY OF THE RED RIVER BY MONDAY MORNING. ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EWD...LIKELY STRETCHING FROM SURFACE LOW OVER NWRN ND SWWD INTO NERN WY BY EARLY SUNDAY EVENING. DIFFUSE WARM FRONT SHOULD ALSO EXTEND FROM THIS LOW SEWD ACROSS ERN SD/CNTRL IA AND ACROSS THE NRN OH VALLEY AT THIS TIME. ...NRN PLAINS EWD INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES... MCS/S OR SEVERAL STORM CLUSTERS ARE LIKELY TO BE ONGOING INITIALLY FROM THE UPPER MS INTO MIDDLE MO VALLEYS AHEAD OF LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THOUGH CONVECTION WILL PROGRESSIVELY SHIFT E OF HIGH LAPSE RATE AIR OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY...PRESENCE OF MOIST AIRMASS S OF RETREATING WARM FRONT SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR RENEWAL OR INTENSIFICATION OF TSTM ACTIVITY BY AFTERNOON ALONG LEADING EDGE OF NOCTURNAL SYSTEM COLD POOL. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK AND GENERALLY LESS THAN 20-25KT. HOWEVER...PRESENCE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORM CLUSTERS WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS EWD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO SWRN GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. A SECOND...POTENTIALLY MORE SIGNIFICANT AREA OF SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT PRIMARILY ACROSS ND. HERE...STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND BOUNDARY-LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF LOW AND COLD FRONT WITH MLCAPES APPROACHING 1500-2500 J/KG. WITH APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE W...45-55KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK WILL OVERSPREAD INSTABILITY AXIS RESULTING IN MORE THAN SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR INDICATE DEEPLY-MIXED BOUNDARY-LAYER CONDITIONS WITH RESULTANT HIGH LCL/LFC HEIGHTS. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY IN STORM LIFE CYCLES...ACTIVITY SHOULD TEND TO EXHIBIT OUTFLOW-DOMINANT CHARACTERISTICS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS. UPSCALE EVOLUTION INTO A FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL EXTENDING AS FAR E AS THE RED RIVER VALLEY BY MONDAY MORNING. ..MEAD.. 07/10/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 11 07:46:43 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 11 Jul 2004 02:46:43 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200407110747.i6B7lA130008@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 110744 SWODY2 SPC AC 110743 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0243 AM CDT SUN JUL 11 2004 VALID 121200Z - 131200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 E MQT 20 SW ESC 20 S GRB 25 SW MKE 35 S CGX 35 NW LAF 15 S CMI 30 N ALN 35 S IRK STJ 40 SSW HSI 25 ESE IML 30 E SNY 50 ENE CDR 25 ESE PIR 20 NNE ATY 15 E BRD 40 SE ELO 70 E ELO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N 63S 55 WNW PUW 25 ESE PDT 65 NNE 4LW 35 ENE MHS 45 W MHS 25 SW EUG 35 E AST 25 NW BLI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM HUL 10 ESE 3B1 15 ESE CON 15 ESE JFK ...CONT... GLS 40 NNE HOU 20 WNW LFK 25 SW SHV 30 E ELD 50 N GLH 30 NNW MEM 50 NW POF 40 NNW SGF 25 E HUT 10 E GCK 40 SSW LAA 25 NE LVS 25 WSW 4CR 15 SE ELP ...CONT... 85 WSW TUS 40 ESE GBN 25 NNE INW 40 NE CEZ 40 ENE CAG 35 NW CPR 40 NE SHR 45 NNW REJ 45 NE Y22 25 ESE JMS 15 NNE BJI 20 N ELO. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MS AND MIDDLE MO VALLEY REGIONS.... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED MOSTLY BY STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER CO DURING THE PERIOD. MODELS INDICATE THE THERE WILL BE A STRENGTHENING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/ASSOCIATED VORTICITY MAX OVER CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THAT WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS SRN WINNIPEG. THIS WILL STRENGTHEN NWLY MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...SURFACE LOW OVER CENTRAL SD INITIALLY WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS NERN NEB MONDAY NIGHT ENHANCING CONVERGENCE ALONG QUASI- STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM SD ESEWD ACROSS IA...IL AND IN THRU PARTS OF OH INTO NERN VA. ...UPPER MS AND MIDDLE MO VALLEY REGION... BOTH MODELS ENHANCE SURFACE LOW AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT FROM ERN SD ESEWD THROUGH IA. AIR MASS E OF THE LOW AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY BECOMES VERY UNSTABLE AS MODELS PROJECT SBCAPE TO BE 3000-4500 J/KG BY 13/00Z ACROSS THIS AREA. FORECAST SOUNDING INDICATE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ON THE ORDER OF 8.0-8.5 C/KM ACROSS WRN PARTS OF THE 15-25 PERCENT PROBABILITY AREA ALONG WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40-50 KT. THUS...THIS AREA LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR BOW ECHO TYPE ACTIVITY MONDAY NIGHT. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP E/NE OF THE SURFACE LOW OVER ERN SD NNEWD ALONG THE COLD FRONT INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL MN. AS NWLY FLOW INCREASES ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...ACTIVITY SHOULD DEVELOP INTO SEVERAL BOW ECHO TYPE SIGNATURES THAT WILL MOVE SEWD AFFECTING SRN MN AND MUCH OF IA BY 13/12Z. GIVEN FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND 0-1KM HELICITY BETWEEN 100-200 M2/S2...ISOLATED TORNADOES COULD OCCUR OVER PARTS OF SERN SD/WRN IA EARLY MONDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW AND HIGH INSTABILITY...MAIN THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. ..MCCARTHY.. 07/11/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 11 16:59:36 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 11 Jul 2004 11:59:36 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200407111700.i6BH06120362@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 111657 SWODY2 SPC AC 111656 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1156 AM CDT SUN JUL 11 2004 VALID 121200Z - 131200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N CMX 30 WNW GRB 20 W RFD 25 E BRL 25 ESE P35 15 NW FNB 35 ESE BUB 25 SSW 9V9 75 N GFK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NW 63S 30 ESE EPH 35 WSW PDT 65 WSW BNO 35 ENE MHS 45 W MHS 25 SW EUG 35 E AST 25 NW BLI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM GLS 40 NNE HOU 20 WNW LFK 25 SW SHV 30 E ELD 50 N GLH 30 NNW MEM 50 NW POF 40 NNW SGF 25 E HUT 10 E GCK 40 SSW LAA 25 NE LVS 25 WSW 4CR 15 SE ELP ...CONT... 85 WSW TUS 40 ESE GBN 25 NNE INW 45 N CEZ 40 ENE CAG 25 NE DGW 25 S REJ 35 NNE Y22 90 NE MOT ...CONT... HUL 10 ESE 3B1 15 ESE CON 15 ESE JFK. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS EWD INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES... ...SYNOPSIS... LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED ON MONDAY WITH GENERAL LARGE-SCALE HEIGHT RISES THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN W AND REGION OF FALLS FROM THE NRN PLAINS EWD TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. MORE SPECIFICALLY...DOMINANT MID/UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE CNTRL ROCKIES WITH REBOUNDING HEIGHTS FORECAST ACROSS THE NRN/CANADIAN ROCKIES IN WAKE OF STRONG SYSTEM TRANSLATING SEWD ACROSS THE SRN CANADIAN PRAIRIES. FARTHER E...SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE FROM THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES/MIDDLE OH VALLEY ESEWD INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION BY TUESDAY MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...SECONDARY LOW ASSOCIATED WITH S-CNTRL CANADIAN SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP SEWD FROM CNTRL SD INTO THE MIDDLE MO VALLEY BY EARLY MONDAY EVENING WITH ATTENDANT COLD FRONT PUSHING SEWD THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS. FARTHER E...BROAD REGION OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP EWD ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE GREAT LAKES WITH ASSOCIATED WINDSHIFT/WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHING EWD INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY BY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...LEE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN E OF THE CNTRL/SRN APPALACHIANS. ...RED RIVER/UPPER MS VALLEYS SWD INTO THE MIDDLE MO VALLEY... LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR EPISODES OF SEVERE TSTMS ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY AS HEIGHTS FALL AND MID/UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELDS STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF VIGOROUS...S-CNTRL CANADIAN SYSTEM. STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE NOCTURNAL MCS MAY WELL BE IN PROGRESS INITIALLY ALONG COLD FRONT OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY. PRESENCE OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MOIST BOUNDARY-LAYER SHOULD ALLOW DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS OVER MN INTO WRN WI TO DESTABILIZE OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY...SUPPORTING A CONTINUED SEWD MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM. STRENGTHENING SHEAR PROFILES IN ADDITION TO THE DECREASING STABILITY SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL EMBEDDED BOWS AND/OR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WITHIN FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS. ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ON SWRN FLANK OF ANTICIPATED MCS AND IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW. THOUGH CAP WILL BE PROGRESSIVELY STRONGER WITH WWD EXTENT...BROAD HEIGHT FALLS AND ENHANCED CONVERGENCE E/NE OF SURFACE LOW SHOULD PROMOTE ISOLATED/SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT INTO PORTIONS OF ERN SD/NERN NEB DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. STRONGLY VEERING WIND PROFILES...40-50KTS OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND MLCAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG ALL SUGGEST THE LIKELIHOOD OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY EXTEND SWD INTO IA OVERNIGHT AS STORMS MOVE/DEVELOP SEWD OUT OF ERN SD/SRN MN. ...MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION SWD ACROSS THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN... HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY...PROVIDING LARGE-SCALE SUPPORT FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSTMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT. WIDESPREAD RAIN/CLOUDINESS WILL LIKELY LIMIT DESTABILIZATION PROCESS AND INHERENT SEVERE THREAT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. EXCEPTION MAY BE INVOF LEE TROUGH AND ANY COASTAL BOUNDARIES FROM ERN VA SWD ACROSS THE ERN CAROLINAS WHERE STRONGER INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP. THOUGH WIND FIELDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK...SOME STRENGTHENING WILL OCCUR WITH APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WHEN COUPLED WITH MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. ..MEAD.. 07/11/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 12 08:00:54 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 12 Jul 2004 03:00:54 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200407120801.i6C81L108504@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 120758 SWODY2 SPC AC 120757 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0257 AM CDT MON JUL 12 2004 VALID 131200Z - 141200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SW ERI 25 WNW PIT 30 SSW PKB 15 NE JKL 55 E BWG 20 NNE PAH 10 W VIH 25 SE TOP 20 NE RSL 15 WNW GLD 30 WSW AKO 10 ENE LAR 10 NNE CPR 35 W GCC 40 NNE 81V 45 SSE REJ 25 SE PHP 55 WSW YKN 30 E SUX MCW 20 WSW EAU 30 WSW IWD 50 ENE ELO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW YUM 30 W PRC 45 E PGA 45 NE GJT 35 NNE CAG 50 W CPR 15 SW COD 15 NE WEY 35 SSW 27U 35 WNW BOI 55 SSW BNO 35 NE LMT 55 SSE EUG 25 N OLM 35 WNW BLI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 N GGW 40 WNW GDV 50 N REJ 25 NNW PIR 15 SSE HON 35 E BKX 40 S STC 55 SSW DLH 25 ESE HIB 30 E INL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 W 3B1 25 NE PSM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW PSX TPL 10 ESE FTW 30 E DUA 20 ESE PGO 50 SE FYV 10 SSE UMN 25 NE CNU 40 W EMP 45 ENE DDC 30 SW LBL 40 SSW AMA 25 NNE MAF 35 NW DRT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY...WWD TO ERN WY... ...GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY... BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY WILL ALLOW A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO DIG SHARPLY SEWD FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE OH VALLEY BY 14/12Z. ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL SPEED MAX IN EXCESS OF 60KT WILL TRANSLATE TOWARD THE BASE OF THE DIGGING TROUGH ACROSS SRN MN INTO NRN IND BY THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH HEIGHT FALLS ON THE ORDER OF 30-60M EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTH OF THE JET. LARGE SCALE PATTERN FAVORS A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE WITH DERECHO-LIKE PARAMETERS FROM PORTIONS OF SRN WI INTO THE OH VALLEY. THIS SUBTLE LARGE SCALE PATTERN CHANGE WILL UNDOUBTEDLY ALLOW MUCH STEEPER LAPSE RATES TO SPREAD ACROSS THE MS VALLEY REGION ATOP A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ENABLING A POTENTIALLY VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO DEVELOP...SBCAPES IN EXCESS OF 4000J/KG...ACROSS INFLOW REGION OF AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. ALTHOUGH DAY1 CONVECTIVE PROCESSES MAY ADVERSELY INFLUENCE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EARLY STAGES OF THE CONVECTIVE CYCLE...IT APPEARS STRONG HEATING AHEAD OF COLD FRONT FROM MO INTO WI WILL AID INITIATION BY EARLY AFTERNOON. DAMAGING LINE SEGMENTS/BOW ECHOES SHOULD DEVELOP WITH AFTERNOON ACTIVITY BEFORE A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT WIND-PRODUCING MCS EVOLVES AND RACES SEWD INTO THE OH VALLEY. AN UPGRADE IN LATER OUTLOOKS IS POSSIBLE AS DAY1 CONVECTIVE INFLUENCES AND CONFIDENCE IN INITIATING ZONE BECOME MORE CLEAR. FARTHER UPSTREAM...STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EVOLVE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WY WHERE ELY BOUNDARY LAYER COMPONENT ON BACK SIDE OF SFC HIGH WILL ENHANCE CONVERGENCE. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD SEWD ALONG FRONTAL ZONE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS ALONG NRN FRINGES OF UPPER ANTICYCLONE. ..DARROW.. 07/12/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 12 12:44:33 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 12 Jul 2004 07:44:33 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200407121244.i6CCis125203@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 121242 SWODY2 SPC AC 121241 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0741 AM CDT MON JUL 12 2004 VALID 131200Z - 141200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SW ERI 25 WNW PIT 30 SSW PKB 15 NE JKL 55 E BWG 20 NNE PAH 10 W VIH 25 SE TOP 20 NE RSL 15 WNW GLD 30 WSW AKO 10 ENE LAR 10 NNE CPR 35 W GCC 40 NNE 81V 45 SSE REJ 25 SE PHP 55 WSW YKN 30 E SUX MCW 20 WSW EAU 30 WSW IWD 50 ENE ELO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 W 3B1 25 NE PSM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW PSX TPL 10 ESE FTW 30 E DUA 20 ESE PGO 50 SE FYV 10 SSE UMN 25 NE CNU 40 W EMP 45 ENE DDC 30 SW LBL 40 SSW AMA 25 NNE MAF 35 NW DRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW YUM 30 W PRC 45 E PGA 45 NE GJT 35 NNE CAG 50 W CPR 15 SW COD 15 NE WEY 35 SSW 27U 35 WNW BOI 55 SSW BNO 35 NE LMT 55 SSE EUG 25 N OLM 35 WNW BLI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 N GGW 40 WNW GDV 50 N REJ 25 NNW PIR 15 SSE HON 35 E BKX 40 S STC 55 SSW DLH 25 ESE HIB 30 E INL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY...WWD TO ERN WY... CORRECTED FOR 5% PROBABILITY LINE ...GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY... BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY WILL ALLOW A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO DIG SHARPLY SEWD FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE OH VALLEY BY 14/12Z. ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL SPEED MAX IN EXCESS OF 60KT WILL TRANSLATE TOWARD THE BASE OF THE DIGGING TROUGH ACROSS SRN MN INTO NRN IND BY THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH HEIGHT FALLS ON THE ORDER OF 30-60M EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTH OF THE JET. LARGE SCALE PATTERN FAVORS A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE WITH DERECHO-LIKE PARAMETERS FROM PORTIONS OF SRN WI INTO THE OH VALLEY. THIS SUBTLE LARGE SCALE PATTERN CHANGE WILL UNDOUBTEDLY ALLOW MUCH STEEPER LAPSE RATES TO SPREAD ACROSS THE MS VALLEY REGION ATOP A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ENABLING A POTENTIALLY VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO DEVELOP...SBCAPES IN EXCESS OF 4000J/KG...ACROSS INFLOW REGION OF AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. ALTHOUGH DAY1 CONVECTIVE PROCESSES MAY ADVERSELY INFLUENCE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EARLY STAGES OF THE CONVECTIVE CYCLE...IT APPEARS STRONG HEATING AHEAD OF COLD FRONT FROM MO INTO WI WILL AID INITIATION BY EARLY AFTERNOON. DAMAGING LINE SEGMENTS/BOW ECHOES SHOULD DEVELOP WITH AFTERNOON ACTIVITY BEFORE A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT WIND-PRODUCING MCS EVOLVES AND RACES SEWD INTO THE OH VALLEY. AN UPGRADE IN LATER OUTLOOKS IS POSSIBLE AS DAY1 CONVECTIVE INFLUENCES AND CONFIDENCE IN INITIATING ZONE BECOME MORE CLEAR. FARTHER UPSTREAM...STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EVOLVE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WY WHERE ELY BOUNDARY LAYER COMPONENT ON BACK SIDE OF SFC HIGH WILL ENHANCE CONVERGENCE. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD SEWD ALONG FRONTAL ZONE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS ALONG NRN FRINGES OF UPPER ANTICYCLONE. ..DARROW.. 07/12/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 12 17:38:28 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 12 Jul 2004 12:38:28 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200407121738.i6CHcm130964@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 121735 SWODY2 SPC AC 121734 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1234 PM CDT MON JUL 12 2004 VALID 131200Z - 141200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NW JHW 30 NNE LBE EKN HSS CHA 35 NNE MKL TBN MHK 55 WNW CNK IML 30 SW SNY 20 E LAR 20 SSW DGW 40 ENE DGW 10 SW CDR 25 N MHN 40 NNE BUB SUX MCW RHI 30 NNW MQT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 N GGW 40 WNW GDV 40 WSW REJ 60 SSW PHP 40 WSW YKN 10 NW SPW 15 NW MKT 35 E STC 15 N DLH 25 E ELO ...CONT... 60 W 3B1 25 NE PSM ...CONT... 25 SW PSX 20 SE TPL DAL 30 E DUA 25 SSE PGO 50 SE FYV UMN 25 NNW CNU 20 N HUT 45 ENE DDC 30 SW LBL AMA MAF 35 NW DRT ...CONT... 10 SW IPL IGM ALS 50 W COS 50 W LAR 50 W CPR COD WEY 35 SSW 27U 35 WNW BOI 55 SSW BNO 35 NE LMT 55 SSE EUG OLM 35 WNW BLI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS GREAT LAKES/OH...TN AND MID MS VALLEYS WWD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER LOW/TROUGH OVER SRN ONTARIO TUESDAY MORNING WILL AMPLIFY INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES DURING THE PERIOD AS A 100 KT HIGH LEVEL JET MAX DIGS SEWD FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. UPPER RIDGE WILL ALSO BUILD NWD ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES...RESULTING IN STRENGTHENING MID/HIGH LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY EWD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM MI SWWD INTO NRN MO...AND THEN WWD ALONG THE KS/NEB BORDER BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ...GREAT LAKES/OH AND TN VALLEYS... CONVECTIVE TIMING/LOCATION IS OFTEN DIFFICULT IN THIS TYPE OF PATTERN AS OVERNIGHT CONVECTION TYPICALLY PROVIDES FOCUS FOR CONVECTION THE NEXT DAY. EXPECT STORMS...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NERN SD...TO BE LOCATED ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN IA/IL AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. THOUGH STORMS MAY BE NON-SEVERE IN THE MORNING... REMNANTS/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SEWD INTO AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. WITH DIURNAL HEATING/DESTABILIZATION...STORMS ARE LIKELY TO INTENSIFY. STRENGTHENING NWLY FLOW AND WITH LIKELIHOOD THAT STORMS WILL CONSOLIDATE INTO A LINEAR MCS...THESE SYSTEMS TYPICALLY MOVE FURTHER SEWD THAN FORECAST BY THE MODELS... SO SEVERE THREAT MAY SPREAD INTO KY/TN DURING THE EVENING HOURS. WIND WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT...THOUGH SUFFICIENTLY STRONG INSTABILITY FOR SOME HAIL ALSO. STORMS ARE ALSO LIKELY TO REDEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT FROM MI SWWD INTO NRN MO TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS THE APPROACHING SPEED MAX INCREASES DIFFLUENCE ALOFT...WITH CONSEQUENT STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S AND 500-700 MB LAPSE RATES FROM 7-8C/KM WILL RESULT IN EXTREME INSTABILITY/ MLCAPE VALUES NEAR 4000 J/KG/. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40-50 KT WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE MODE IS LIKELY TO BE LINEAR AS WEAKENING CAP SHOULD RESULT IN WIDESPREAD STORMS TO FORM ALONG OR AHEAD OF FRONT. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...LARGE HAIL WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT AS STORMS INITIALLY DEVELOP...BUT SHOULD TRANSLATE TO MAINLY A WIND THREAT AS STORMS EVOLVE INTO A FAST MOVING LINE. SEVERE THREAT WOULD CONTINUE WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY/LOWER MI...GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS. ...CENTRAL PLAINS... CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS A LITTLE LESS CERTAIN IN THIS AREA... THOUGH A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...UPSLOPE ELY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND CONVERGENCE NEAR FRONT MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE CAPPING INVERSION WILL BE STRONGER THAN ACROSS THE OH VALLEY...BUT STORMS MAY FORM NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SERN WY. STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT TO PRODUCE SEVERE HAIL/WIND GIVEN MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 2500 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR AT 30 TO 40 KT. AFTER STORMS DEVELOP...THEY MAY SHIFT EWD ACROSS SRN NEB...NORTH OF SURFACE FRONT...WHERE FRONTAL LIFT AID LIFTING THROUGH THE STRONG CAP. ...AZ... TROPICAL CIRCULATION WAS LOCATED ABOUT 150 NM SE OF THE TX BIG BEND MOVING NWD AT 20-25 KT. CURRENT MOTION WOULD PLACE SYSTEM IN EXTREME NRN MEXICO SOUTH OF THE AZ/NM BORDER BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MID AND HIGH LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT AS THIS SYSTEM NEARS THE SWRN STATES. MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS ALREADY PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE SHOULD AID IN CONVECTIVE INITIATION/ORGANIZATION. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY OF CLOUDS FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION AND EXACT MOTION OF SYSTEM...WILL ONLY ISSUE A 5% PROBABILITY FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE WIND GUSTS ATTM. ..IMY.. 07/12/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 13 07:42:57 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 13 Jul 2004 02:42:57 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200407130743.i6D7hL132710@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 130740 SWODY2 SPC AC 130739 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0239 AM CDT TUE JUL 13 2004 VALID 141200Z - 151200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE CHS 20 NW AUO 60 SE HRO 40 NE UNO 30 S OWB 55 ESE LUK 20 ENE JHW 15 ESE ELM 40 ENE SBY. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSW HSI IML 30 WNW BFF 35 NNE DGW 20 E 81V 30 E RAP 45 E ANW 25 WSW OLU 20 SE HSI 55 SSW HSI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW MFE 15 NW ALI 40 W TYR 25 WNW MLC 25 WSW PNC 35 ESE LBL 30 NNE CVS 50 S MRF ...CONT... 10 SSE CZZ 20 ESE LAS 55 E MLF 35 WNW JAC 20 WNW BZN 35 ESE 3TH 40 W PUW 35 SSW RDM 20 ESE MFR 25 NW MFR 15 SW OLM 20 WNW BLI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC...OH/TN VLYS AND THE CAROLINAS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... STRONG MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL DIG SEWD AND EVENTUALLY DIG OUT A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE ERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY BY LATE WEDNESDAY. UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND OVER THE WRN STATES. WEAKER IMPULSES WILL TOP THE RIDGE...WITH ONE SUCH DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS MT/WY THEN INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS BY EARLY THU. AT THE SURFACE...LOW WILL INTENSIFY AHEAD OF THE STRONG TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A COLD FRONT EXTENDING S FROM THE LOW WILL SWEEP RAPIDLY ESEWD... REACHING NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. TAIL END OF THE FRONT WILL ARC NWWD INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. THE FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE TSTMS. ...ERN STATES... LEADING EDGE OF FORWARD PROPAGATING/WIND DAMAGE PRODUCING MCS WILL LIKELY BE VCNTY THE UPPER OH VLY AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. STRONGEST HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DIGGING TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND LOWER GREAT LAKES EARLY WEDNESDAY...THEN INTO NEW ENGLAND BY EARLY THURSDAY. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON HOW DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL AFFECT BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING FROM THE MASON DIXON LINE NWD INTO THE NERN STATES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT LEADING EDGE OF THE MCS COULD REGENERATE AND MOVE TOWARD THE COAST FROM SRN NEW ENGLAND TO DELMARVA BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. GIVEN SUFFICIENT HEATING...FAST WNWLY UPPER FLOW REGIME MAY ENCOURAGE TSTMS TO BOW GIVING DAMAGING WINDS. STRONGEST BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING AND STEEPEST MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD EXIST FROM THE MID OH VLY/MID-ATLANTIC SWWD INTO THE TN VLY. TAIL END OF THE MCS SHOULD INTENSIFY DURING PEAK HEATING OVER THE OH VLY/KY AREA AND COULD BEGIN TO FORWARD PROPAGATE SEWD TOWARD THE CAROLINAS BY EVENING WITH DAMAGING WINDS. OTHER STORMS MAY FAVOR THE LEE TROUGH OVER THE ERN CAROLINAS. WRN EXTENT OF THE SEVERE THREAT IS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN. FORCING/ CONVERGENCE WILL BE MUCH WEAKER FROM MID TN WWD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS AND MIDLEVEL CAP WILL BE STRONGER. THUS...ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY BE ISOLD AT BEST. ...CNTRL/NRN HIGH PLAINS... SELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL ADVECT NEAR 60F DEW POINTS NWWD INTO THE CNTRL/NRN HIGH PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. PRIND THAT TSTMS WILL DEVELOP ON THE HIGHER WY/SD TERRAIN BY AFTERNOON AND COULD MIGRATE ONTO THE PLAINS DURING THE EVENING IF CINH WEAKENS SUFFICIENTLY. VERTICAL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SUGGEST THAT LARGE HAIL MAY OCCUR WITH POSSIBLE DAMAGING WINDS AS THE STORMS MOVE SEWD INTO NEB OVERNIGHT. OTHER ISOLD TSTMS MAY GIVE ISOLD LARGE HAIL/GUSTY WINDS ACROSS ERN MT. ..RACY.. 07/13/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 13 17:33:33 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 13 Jul 2004 12:33:33 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200407131733.i6DHXo131929@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 131731 SWODY2 SPC AC 131730 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1230 PM CDT TUE JUL 13 2004 VALID 141200Z - 151200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S SSI 35 W TCL 60 SE HRO 30 ENE UNO 40 N CSV 30 ENE HTS 20 ENE JHW 15 ESE ELM 15 SE NEL. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM IML 30 WNW BFF 15 SSE GCC 45 S GDV 20 SW DIK 40 ESE ANW 30 W EAR IML. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CZZ 20 ESE DAG 15 NNE MLF 15 NW MLD 10 S LVM 60 ESE FCA 40 W PUW 35 SSW RDM 20 ESE MFR 25 NW MFR 15 SW OLM 20 WNW BLI ...CONT... 30 WNW MFE 20 NNW ALI 15 NW CLL 25 ENE LFK 25 E ESF 20 NW JAN 30 NNW GLH 35 W FYV 15 ESE HUT 25 SSW GCK 40 ENE ROW 60 S MRF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE MID ATL STATES/CAROLINAS AND TN VLY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL/NRN HI PLNS... ...SYNOPSIS... STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW DROPPING SE ACROSS THE UPR GRT LKS EXPECTED TO REACH LK HURON BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. THE SYSTEM SHOULD DECELERATE AS IT CONTINUES SE ACROSS UPSTATE NY LATER WEDNESDAY/ EARLY THURSDAY. GIVEN STRENGTH OF DISTURBANCE AND ITS MOVEMENT INTO MEAN TROUGH OVER THE NERN STATES...IMPULSE SHOULD CLOSE OFF AS UPSTREAM RIDGE REBOUNDS SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE WEST. OVER THE SWRN U.S...ELY WAVE NOW NEAR THE TX BIG BEND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SLOWLY W/WNW...REACHING SE NM EARLY WEDNESDAY AND S CNTRL AZ EARLY THURSDAY. AT LWR LEVELS...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH GRT LKS SYSTEM SHOULD ARC FROM THE UPR OH VLY ACROSS THE LWR TN VLY INTO THE CNTRL PLNS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. THE FRONT SHOULD REACH THE ERN SLOPES OF THE APLCNS BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AS WRN PART BECOMES STNRY OVER THE PLNS. ...MID ATLANTIC STATES... FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS LEFT OVER FROM TODAY'S ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO BE OVER WRN PA/WV AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. CLOUD DEBRIS AND LOW LEVEL OUTFLOW FROM THIS FEATURE SHOULD CONTINUE E ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF PA/NJ/NRN MD AND DEL LATER IN THE DAY. GIVEN RELATIVELY WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES /AROUND 6.5 DEG C PER KM/...THIS MAY LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL IN THOSE AREAS DESPITE PRESENCE OF MODERATE /30+ KT/ DEEP WSWLY SHEAR AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH DIGGING TROUGH. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY...HOWEVER...FORM ALONG OUTFLOW BNDRY AND/OR WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH SYSTEM NOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC CST. ...CNTRL/SRN VA INTO NC/SC... FARTHER S...A BETTER CHANCE FOR SUSTAINED SEVERE MAY DEVELOP FROM CNTRL/SRN VA INTO THE CAROLINAS. STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY EXIST IN THIS REGION /ON THE ORDER OF 7 DEG C PER KM/. IN ADDITION...LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD STEEPEN AS MEAN WLY FLOW AND MORE EQUATORWARD LOCATION ALLOW FOR SIGNIFICANT SURFACE HEATING /AFTN TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 90S/ AND DESTABILIZATION /MLCAPE TO 2000 J PER KG/. COUPLED WITH MODERATE /40 KT/ UNIDIRECTIONAL WNWLY FLOW AND INCREASING UPPER ASCENT/DIFFLUENCE ...SETUP SHOULD PROVE FAVORABLE FOR AFTN STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE E SLOPES OF THE VA/NC/SC MTNS. WITH OUTFLOW FROM THE STORMS LIKELY TO QUICKLY MERGE...SETUP SHOULD SUPPORT EVOLUTION INTO A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS/SQUALL LINE. ATTENDANT EMBEDDED BOWS MAY CARRY HIGH WIND AND POSSIBLE HAIL THREAT TO THE NC COAST BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. ...TN VLY... THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO FORM WITH AFTN HEATING ALONG COLD FRONT SETTLING S INTO THE TN VLY. ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP WWD ALONG BNDRY WITH TIME AS HEATING AND WLY LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW ALLOW CAP TO BE BROKEN FROM EAST TO WEST. DEGREE OF MLCAPE /AOA 2000 J PER KG/...STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE UNIDIRECTIONAL NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL ALSO POTENTIALLY SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF FORWARD-PROPAGATING LINE SEGMENTS IN THIS REGION...AND MAY CARRY A THREAT FOR HIGH WIND/HAIL SEWD INTO NRN AL/GA WEDNESDAY EVENING. BACK-BUILDING ACTIVITY MAY LINGER INTO EARLY THURSDAY ACROSS PARTS OF W TN/NRN MS. ...CNTRL/NRN HI PLNS... A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR SEVERE WILL EXIST INVOF STALLING FRONT OVER WRN PORTIONS OF THE DAKS/NEB...WHERE WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL FOCUS BENEATH MODEST /25-30 KT/ MID LEVEL NW FLOW. IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK IMPULSE TOPPING WRN RIDGE WILL BE FAVORABLY TIMED WITH THE DIURNAL CYCLE AS FAR AS STORM INITIATION IS CONCERNED. BUT THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS AND LOW LEVEL FORCING MAY SUPPORT AFTN STORMS OVER THE BLACK HILLS AND POSSIBLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF ERN WY. ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO YIELD HAIL/HIGH WIND. ...ARN AZ... BNDRY LAYER MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS AZ TOMORROW...WHERE MODEST MID LEVEL ELY FLOW WILL PREVAIL DOWNSTREAM FROM UPPER SYSTEM NOW NEAR THE BIG BEND. CONDITIONS APPEAR TOO UNCERTAIN ATTM...HOWEVER...TO WARRANT ADDITION OF A SLIGHT RISK AREA...MAINLY BECAUSE OF UNKNOWN INFLUENCE OF UPPER SYSTEM ON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. ..CORFIDI.. 07/13/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 14 07:46:06 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 14 Jul 2004 02:46:06 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200407140746.i6E7kL105707@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 140743 SWODY2 SPC AC 140742 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0242 AM CDT WED JUL 14 2004 VALID 151200Z - 161200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NW HVR 15 W 81V 40 SW PHP 35 SSE PHP 25 SE PIR 10 E MHE 25 NNE OMA 35 SSE SZL 15 WNW JBR 35 N GLH 35 S PBF 30 SSW HOT 30 SW CNK 40 NW GLD 35 NNE LAR 35 W WRL 20 SW BZN 50 NNE FCA. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 ENE ELO 10 NNW IWD 10 W MTW 20 SE JVL 25 ENE CID 20 SSW FRM 35 S FAR 60 W RRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW BPT 30 N GGG TUL 30 E GAG 35 S ABQ 40 SE DMN ...CONT... CZZ 55 S BIH 25 NE BIH 35 E P38 30 N MLF ENV 20 ESE TWF 50 WSW 27U 30 E PUW 40 NNW 4OM ...CONT... 65 N OLF 20 SSE SDY 30 W BIS 20 N ABR 70 NE DVL ...CONT... 90 ESE ANJ 20 ENE FDY 20 W SDF 40 S PAH 40 S MSL 20 ESE LGC 40 S CAE 15 SE ECG ...CONT... 20 SSE PVD 25 SSW PSF 40 NNE CXY 20 NE PIT 45 WSW ERI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS...CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE UPPER MS VLY... ...SYNOPSIS... STRONG UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE DIGGING SEWD TODAY WILL EVENTUALLY CLOSE OFF A LOW OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE ERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE SHOULD DROP SWD ALONG WRN PERIPHERY OF THIS TROUGH INTO THE UPPER MS VLY ON THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. BETWEEN THIS TROUGH AND UPSTREAM RIDGE...FAST NWLY FLOW WILL EXIST FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE SERN STATES THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...FRONT THAT WILL FOLLOW TODAYS IMPULSE WILL MOVE OFF THE ERN SEABOARD BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. TAIL END OF THE FRONT WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY FROM THE DEEP SOUTH NWWD THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS. ANOTHER FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SECOND DISTURBANCE WILL DROP SWD OUT OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS BY LATE THURSDAY. ...UPPER MS VLY... BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY ADVECT NEWD INTO THE UPPER MS VLY ON THURSDAY...AHEAD OF THE SECONDARY IMPULSE DROPPING SWD THROUGH NWRN ONTARIO. INCREASED FORCING FOR LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREADING SEWD WILL LIKELY SUPPORT TSTM INITIATION ALONG THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT BY AFTERNOON ACROSS NRN MN. DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY NEAR 60F DEW POINTS BENEATH H5 TEMPERATURES OF MINUS 12C WILL RESULT IN MLCAPES OF AROUND 1500 J/KG. GIVEN MODEST DEEP NWLY FLOW...UPSCALE GROWTH INTO RAPIDLY MOVING TSTM CLUSTERS IS POSSIBLE AND DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL COULD OCCUR. ACTIVITY MAY REACH AS FAR SE AS NRN IL BY LATE EVENING BEFORE POSSIBLY WEAKENING. ...OZARKS NWWD ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS... DIFFICULT FORECAST GIVEN NWLY FLOW REGIME. THERE WILL LIKELY BE AREAS WITH HIGHER SEVERE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA... BUT...ATTM IT IS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT ANY AREAS FOR HIGHER PROBABILITIES. THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA VCNTY THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE CAPPED TO SURFACE BASED TSTMS ON THURSDAY. STRONGEST LOW LEVEL HEATING IS APT TO OCCUR VCNTY SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE NEB/SD BORDER. LOCAL CONVERGENCE AND HOT TEMPERATURES MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO BREACH THE CAP AND TSTMS COULD DEVELOP BY EARLY EVENING. MLCAPES SHOULD RANGE FROM 2500-3000 J/KG AND NWLY VERTICAL SHEAR OF 45 KTS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. TSTM MAY ORGANIZE INTO A MCS AND DROP SSEWD THROUGH NEB WITH HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. LLJ IS LIKELY TO BE RATHER WEAK...BUT INCREASING WARM ADVECTION MAY AID IN INCREASING TSTMS DOWNSTREAM ALONG/NORTHEAST OF THE FRONT SEWD INTO THE OZARKS OVERNIGHT WITH ATTENDANT HAIL THREATS. OTHERWISE...UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN WY/MT WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE BENEATH STEEP MID TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES. TSTMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN COULD BECOME SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CNTRL MT WHERE INSTABILITY/SHEAR COMBINATIONS WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS THAN FARTHER SE ACROSS WY. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE LIKELY. ...SERN STATES... ISOLD SEVERE TSTMS GIVING DAMAGING WINDS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT FROM NRN FL INTO THE LOWER MS VLY. WARM MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES MAY MITIGATE THE SEVERE POTENTIAL AND DOES NOT SEEM TO JUSTIFY A SLIGHT RISK ATTM. ..RACY.. 07/14/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 14 17:29:29 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 14 Jul 2004 12:29:29 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200407141729.i6EHTf114995@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 141727 SWODY2 SPC AC 141726 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1226 PM CDT WED JUL 14 2004 VALID 151200Z - 161200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S MCK 15 E IML 45 WSW MHN 45 ENE CDR 40 N RAP 35 W Y22 40 NW MBG 40 NNE ABR 25 W AXN 35 N MSP 40 E MSP RST 25 SW MCW 55 NE OMA 30 ENE LNK 30 WSW BIE 55 WNW CNK 20 S MCK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW BPT 30 N GGG TUL 30 E GAG 35 S ABQ 40 SE DMN ...CONT... CZZ 55 S BIH 25 NE BIH 35 E P38 30 N MLF ENV 20 ESE TWF 50 WSW 27U 30 E PUW 40 NNW 4OM ...CONT... 65 N OLF 20 SSE SDY 45 ESE DIK JMS 65 NNW GFK ...CONT... 30 ESE ANJ 50 WNW MKG STL 20 NNW DYR 40 S MSL 20 ESE LGC 40 S CAE 15 SE ECG ...CONT... 20 SSE PVD 25 SSW PSF 40 NNE CXY 20 NE PIT 45 WSW ERI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS.... ...SYNOPSIS... MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE U.S. DOMINATED BY TROUGH OVER THE ERN U.S. AND STRONG RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS STATES THAT WILL EXTEND NWD OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. THIS LEAVES MODERATE NWLY FLOW FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE TN VALLEY. ETA MODEL INDICATES THAT STRONG SEASONAL COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EWD FROM ACROSS THE ERN U.S. EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL MA SWD THROUGH SERN VA...THEN SWWD INTO SRN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MS. A LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER S CENTRAL SD WITH A QUASISTATIONARY FRONT THAT WILL RUN FROM N CENTRAL MT INTO NERN WY...THRU THE SD LOW...THEN CONTINUING ACROSS SERN KS AND NERN LA. ...PARTS OF THE NRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ETA MODEL INDICATES VERY WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS MAINLY DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AS IT ALSO EXTENDS ESEWD ACROSS NRN TX INTO CENTRAL LA. THUS...BEST PROBABILITY OF CONVECTION WILL BE ON ANTICYCLONIC SIDE OF THE RIDGE IN THE VICINITY OF THE QUASISTATIONARY FRONT AND PERIPHERY OF STRONG CAPPING INVERSION ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGING. AIR MASS WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING ACROSS THE AREA AS MUCAPE VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 2500 AND 3500 J/KG...WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 7C/KM. THIS REGION WILL ALSO BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF FAVORABLE ENTRANCE REGION OF 90-95 KT UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK ENHANCING UVVS. LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE 40 KT ACROSS THE REGION... FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...THUS ISOLATED TORNADOES COULD OCCUR ON ERN SIDE OF SURFACE LOW IN VICINITY OF QUASISTATIONARY BOUNDARY. ...PARTS OF MS INTO AL... REMNANTS OF UNSEASONABLE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LAY ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AL AND MS DURING THE AFTERNOON. AIR MASS IS FORECAST TO BE MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MUCAPE BETWEEN 3000 AND 4500 J/KG. ANALYSIS OF FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LAPSE RATES WILL BE AROUND 7C/KM INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. ..MCCARTHY.. 07/14/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 15 07:39:47 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 15 Jul 2004 02:39:47 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200407150739.i6F7dw117460@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 150737 SWODY2 SPC AC 150736 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0236 AM CDT THU JUL 15 2004 VALID 161200Z - 171200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NNE ISN 30 E PHP 30 ESE MHN 15 NW IML LAA 20 S PUB LAR 35 SE BIL 40 ESE LWT 70 ENE HVR. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNE BVE 30 S PBF 25 W FSM 30 NE BVO 30 SSE OJC 40 ESE UIN 10 W CGX 20 ENE JXN 20 ESE FDY 20 W SDF 50 S BNA BHM TOI 25 SSE TLH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE EWR 30 NNW BWI 30 SW SHD 40 NE HKY 35 S CLT 30 NNW CRE 30 ESE ECG ...CONT... 25 ESE 7R4 25 WNW ESF 40 E PRX 20 NW FSI 40 ESE AMA 20 W HOB 45 WSW MRF ...CONT... 20 E CZZ 35 E NID 20 NE TPH 60 NNW LOL 15 NNE MHS 10 W MFR 35 ESE PDX 70 NW FCA ...CONT... 45 N MOT 25 SE BIS 20 WSW HON 40 NNW SUX 30 SSW FOD 45 N ALO 65 N EAU 70 NW CMX. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE LOWER/MID MS RIVER VALLEY INTO THE SRN GREAT LAKES... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE CENTRAL AND NRN HIGH PLAINS... ...CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID/LOWER MS AND LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY... FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG SEWD ACROSS THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY AND WRN GREAT LAKES FRIDAY. ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL LIKEWISE MOVE SEWD AND EXTEND FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO THE OZARKS BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. A VERY MOIST AND MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO CENTRAL IL/IND. MCS MAY BE ONGOING ALONG TAIL END OF THIS SYSTEM INTO PARTS OF KS/MO ALONG NOSE OF SWLY LLJ AT BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WHICH WILL LIKELY SHIFT ESEWD THROUGH THE DAY. ETA AND GFS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT WITH LOCATION OF THIS ACTIVITY...THOUGH OVERALL PATTERN SUGGESTS CONVECTION MAY BECOME QUITE ACTIVE INTO PORTIONS OF THE MID-SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON. BRN-SHEAR VALUES WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED LINES AND POSSIBLY SUPERCELLS...AS 35-45 KT OF NWLY H5 WINDS OVERSPREAD LOWER TO MID 70F SURFACE DEW POINTS. LAPSE RATES WILL BE MARGINAL. HOWEVER...OVERALL PATTERN FAVORS POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS OVER THE REGION...ESPECIALLY IF ACTIVITY INTENSIFIES ALONG A COMMON OUTFLOW...WITH THREAT POSSIBLY EXTENDING TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST THROUGH THE EVENING. FARTHER NORTH ALONG THE FRONT...ETA SUGGESTS SBCAPES NEAR 2500 J/KG INTO IL/IND WILL DEVELOP WITHIN WARM SECTOR. LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SHOULD SUPPORT RAPID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY THE MID AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THROUGH THE MID EVENING AS IT SHIFTS EWD. SUPERCELL AND ATTENDANT TORNADO THREAT MAY BE GREATER NEAR WEAK SURFACE LOW INTO PORTIONS OF NERN IL/NRN IND. ...NRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... PERSISTENT WNWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY AS A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES ALOFT DRIFT EWD ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPS ALONG LEE TROUGH. COMBINATION OF UPSLOPE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AND MODEST NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PRODUCE SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR STORM-SCALE ORGANIZATION AS STORMS MOVE ESEWD AWAY FROM HIGHER TERRAIN AND NEAR LEE TROUGH WITH ASSOCIATED THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ..EVANS.. 07/15/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 15 17:47:41 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 15 Jul 2004 12:47:41 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200407151747.i6FHloX23953@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 151746 SWODY2 SPC AC 151745 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1245 PM CDT THU JUL 15 2004 VALID 161200Z - 171200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NNE ISN 30 E PHP 30 ESE MHN 15 NW IML LAA 20 S PUB LAR 35 SE BIL 40 ESE LWT 70 ENE HVR. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNE BVE 30 S PBF 25 SSE MKO 15 N BVO 30 SSE OJC 30 S BRL 25 SW OSH 10 SSW LAN 20 ESE FDY 20 W SDF 50 S BNA BHM TOI 25 SSE TLH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE 7R4 25 WNW ESF 40 E PRX 20 NW FSI 40 ESE AMA 20 W HOB 45 WSW MRF ...CONT... 20 E CZZ 35 E NID 20 NE TPH 60 NNW LOL 15 NNE MHS 10 W MFR 35 ESE PDX 70 NW FCA ...CONT... 45 N MOT 25 SE BIS 20 WSW HON 40 NNW SUX 30 SSW FOD 45 N ALO 65 N EAU 70 NW CMX ...CONT... 15 SSE EWR 30 NNW BWI 30 SW SHD 40 NE HKY 35 S CLT 30 NNW CRE 30 ESE ECG. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SRN GREAT LAKES SWWD TO MID/LOWER MS VALLEYS AND CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ALONG THE NRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND EXTENDING NWD TO THE CENTRAL CANADIAN PROVINCES WILL MAINTAIN NWLY FLOW ALOFT FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO THE TN/LOWER MS VALLEYS AND GULF COAST STATES. ALTHOUGH MODELS AGREE THAT SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE SEWD WITHIN NWLY FLOW...THEY DISAGREE WITH THE STRENGTH AND/OR TIMING OF THESE FEATURES EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE SRN GREAT LAKES AND TN/LOWER MS VALLEYS. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOWER MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES SYSTEMS IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM LM SWWD ACROSS SRN IL/OZARKS REGION TO CENTRAL OK BY 17/00Z. MEANWHILE...A STALLED BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND E-W ACROSS THE SRN GULF COAST STATES. THE WRN PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD RETREAT NEWD AS A WARM FRONT TOWARD MIDDLE TN/CENTRAL AL IN ADVANCE OF TN/LOWER MS VALLEYS SHORT WAVE TROUGH. ...SRN GREAT LAKES SWWD TO MID/LOWER MS VALLEYS AND CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES... 12Z ETA/GFS ARE IN MORE AGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT OF AN EXPECTED ONGOING MCS ACROSS THE ERN PLAINS OF KS INTO LOWER MO VALLEY FRIDAY MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET NOSING INTO ERN KS. MOIST AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THIS MCS AND SEWD MOVING COLD FRONT WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM THE SRN GULF COAST STATES/LOWER MS VALLEY NNEWD TO SRN IL/SWRN IND. INCREASING ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF GREAT LAKES TROUGH AND SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS SRN MO/NRN AR ALONG WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG COLD FRONT AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM MO MCS WILL ALLOW FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF VERY STRONG INSTABILITY /MLCAPE 2500-3000 J/KG/ ALONG THE OZARKS AND SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SUPERCELLS WITH AN ATTENDANT HAIL/ DAMAGING WIND THREAT. INCREASED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE/LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IN VICINITY OF SURFACE LOW OVER SERN MO/SRN IL AND SEWD ALONG WARM FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT A TORNADO POTENTIAL. MODELS TEND TO AGREE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS FRIDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO NRN AL...WITH MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS. FURTHER NNEWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AND WEAKER DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL FAVOR MULTICELLS WITH AN ACCOMPANYING HAIL/WIND THREAT. AN ATTENDANT ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SERN WI/NERN IL INTO NRN IND WHERE A SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO TRACK ESEWD. A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL EXIST ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES SWD ALONG THE OK/KS BORDER FRIDAY AFTERNOON... BUT A CAP ACROSS THIS REGION IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...IF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT IS STRONG ENOUGH TO BREAK THIS CAP...MODERATE INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ISOLATED SUPERCELLS. THUS...A 5 PERCENT SEVERE PROBABILITY IS MAINTAINED ACROSS THIS AREA. ...NRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD SWD ACROSS THE NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. ESELY UPSLOPE FLOW ON THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THIS HIGH WILL MAINTAIN A MOIST AIR MASS ALONG A LEE TROUGH. WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TOPPING THE RIDGE COMBINED WITH NWLY FLOW ABOVE ESELY LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL FAVOR ORGANIZED STORMS AS CONVECTION DEVELOPS ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NRN/CENTRAL ROCKIES FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SUPPORT STORMS MOVING ESEWD OFF THE MOUNTAINS...WITH THE SEVERE POTENTIAL INCREASING AS STORMS MOVE INTO THE INSTABILITY AXIS. STEEP LAPSE RATES SHOULD SUPPORT A HAIL THREAT...WHILE INVERTED-V PROFILES TEND TO FAVOR A DAMAGING WIND THREAT. ..PETERS.. 07/15/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 16 07:34:51 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 16 Jul 2004 02:34:51 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200407160734.i6G7YwX26176@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 160731 SWODY2 SPC AC 160730 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0230 AM CDT FRI JUL 16 2004 VALID 171200Z - 181200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 E SSI ABY 25 SE MEI 50 WNW JAN 15 NNW GLH 40 SSW MKL 25 S TYS 30 E HKY 15 ENE RDU 10 E WAL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW PSX SAT INK ALM SVC 30 ESE DUG ...CONT... YUM DAG FAT RBL EKA ...CONT... OSC AZO 10 SSW MTO TBN MKO LTS 45 NE AMA EHA AKO 10 SSE REJ 70 NE MOT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ON SATURDAY FROM THE CAROLINAS ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES... ...CAROLINAS GULF COAST REGION... LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE MAINTAINED OVER THE WESTERN STATES ON SATURDAY...WITH PERSISTENT TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY. BAND OF MODERATELY STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS IS FORECAST TO EXTEND AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGH FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION AND CAROLINAS. MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS EXPECTED ALONG AND SOUTH OF COLD FRONT FROM EAST TX INTO THE CAROLINAS...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S AND AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OVER 2000 J/KG. SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT AND SPREAD SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE GULF COAST DURING THE EVENING. ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREAT IN THIS AREA. ...NORTHWEST STATES... BAND OF MODERATELY STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS WILL EXTEND OVER THE TOP OF THE WESTERN RIDGE FROM ORE/WA INTO MT. ONLY LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED OVER THIS REGION ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SUGGEST A RISK OF ISOLATED GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS IN STRONGER CELLS. ..HART.. 07/16/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 16 07:45:43 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 16 Jul 2004 02:45:43 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200407160745.i6G7jpX28995@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 160744 SWODY2 SPC AC 160742 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0242 AM CDT FRI JUL 16 2004 VALID 171200Z - 181200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 E SSI ABY 25 SE MEI 50 WNW JAN 15 NNW GLH 40 SSW MKL 25 S TYS 30 E HKY 15 ENE RDU 10 E WAL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM YUM DAG FAT RBL EKA ...CONT... 70 NE MOT 10 SSE REJ AKO EHA 45 NE AMA LTS MKO TBN 10 SSW MTO AZO OSC ...CONT... 10 SSW PSX SAT INK ALM SVC 30 ESE DUG. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ON SATURDAY FROM THE CAROLINAS ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES... CORRECTED FOR BACKWARDS THUNDER LINE ...CAROLINAS GULF COAST REGION... LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE MAINTAINED OVER THE WESTERN STATES ON SATURDAY...WITH PERSISTENT TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY. BAND OF MODERATELY STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS IS FORECAST TO EXTEND AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGH FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION AND CAROLINAS. MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS EXPECTED ALONG AND SOUTH OF COLD FRONT FROM EAST TX INTO THE CAROLINAS...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S AND AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OVER 2000 J/KG. SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT AND SPREAD SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE GULF COAST DURING THE EVENING. ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREAT IN THIS AREA. ...NORTHWEST STATES... BAND OF MODERATELY STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS WILL EXTEND OVER THE TOP OF THE WESTERN RIDGE FROM ORE/WA INTO MT. ONLY LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED OVER THIS REGION ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SUGGEST A RISK OF ISOLATED GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS IN STRONGER CELLS. ..HART.. 07/16/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 16 17:34:34 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 16 Jul 2004 12:34:34 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200407161734.i6GHYeX13310@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 161731 SWODY2 SPC AC 161730 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1230 PM CDT FRI JUL 16 2004 VALID 171200Z - 181200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 E SSI ABY 25 SE MEI 50 WNW JAN 25 NNW GLH 10 SSE MKL 10 S TYS 30 E HKY 15 ENE RDU 10 E WAL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW PSX SAT INK ALM SVC 30 ESE DUG ...CONT... YUM DAG FAT RBL EKA ...CONT... 70 NE MOT 10 SSE REJ AKO EHA 45 NE AMA LTS MKO TBN 10 SSW MTO AZO OSC. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ON SATURDAY FROM THE CAROLINAS ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FROM THE ROCKIES NWD INTO WRN CANADA WITH A TROUGH IN THE EAST. THIS TROUGH WILL DEEPEN SLIGHTLY ON SATURDAY AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH...NOW TOPPING THE RIDGE...AND A TROUGH MOVING SSEWD ACROSS THE WRN GREAT LAKES...MOVE TOWARD THE LOWER MS AND LOWER OH VALLEYS... RESPECTIVELY. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND SOUTH ACROSS THE LOWER OH/TN AND LOWER MS VALLEYS...AND NRN/EAST TX. A STALLED E-W BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN OVER THE GULF COAST STATES. ...CAROLINAS TO CENTRAL/ERN GULF COAST REGION... BAND OF 30-40 KT OF WNWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL EXTEND FROM ERN OK/AR EWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES TO THE CAROLINAS. CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH EXPECTED ONGOING CLUSTER OF STORMS ACROSS LOWER MS VALLEY TO AL MAY LIMIT AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION... DOWNSTREAM ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/ERN GULF COAST STATES. DESPITE WEAK LAPSE RATES...A MOIST AIR MASS IN THIS AREA WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S AND A WEAK CAP WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. 25-30 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL TEND TO FAVOR MULTICELLS. ...LOWER OH/TN VALLEYS TO LOWER MS VALLEY... COOLING MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THERMAL TROUGH MOVING SWD ACROSS THIS AREA WILL AID IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE WEAK COLD FRONT FROM PORTIONS OF OH SWWD TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...AS THE AIR MASS BECOMES MODERATELY UNSTABLE. 25-30 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR FROM KY TO MS SHOULD SUPPORT MULTICELL STORMS... WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR A MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF MS/SRN TN WHERE MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL BE STRONGER. ...NORTHWEST STATES... WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS...WITHIN A BAND OF MODERATELY STRONG SW WINDS ALOFT...WILL TRACK NEWD ACROSS WA/ORE TO MT ON SATURDAY. THE COMBINATION OF NWD MOVING MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH OLD TROPICAL SYSTEM OFF THE CA COAST WILL SPREAD NNEWD ACROSS THIS REGION. THIS INCREASE IN MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND SUFFICIENT SURFACE HEATING WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. DESPITE EXPECTED STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND A LOW THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER...INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS SHOULD SUPPORT ISOLATED STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY. ..PETERS.. 07/16/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 17 07:22:27 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 17 Jul 2004 02:22:27 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200407170722.i6H7MUX07542@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 170720 SWODY2 SPC AC 170718 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0218 AM CDT SAT JUL 17 2004 VALID 181200Z - 191200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE IWD 40 ENE MSP 20 SW AXN 35 W FAR 70 NNE DVL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WNW YUM DAG BFL SAC MFR SLE SEA 10 N BLI ...CONT... CMX EAU FSD IML CDS 10 NW BWD CLL MCB TCL 10 SSE BNA DEC MKG OSC. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ON SUNDAY OVER PARTS OF ND/MN/WI... ...ND/MN... HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES ON SUNDAY...WITH BAND OF MODERATELY STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS EXTENDING FROM ND/MN INTO THE GULF COAST STATES. ETA/GFS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS SASK/MANITOBA...AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN ONTARIO INTO ND/MN. AIRMASS IN THIS REGION WILL BE MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S AND MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000 J/KG. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST A RISK OF SUPERCELL STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. CAPPING INVERSION AND UPPER RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT SOUTHWARD DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION INTO SD/NEB/IA. ...NORTHERN ROCKIES... ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...WHERE RELATIVELY STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS AND CONTINUED INVERTED-V PROFILES ARE EXPECTED. ...GULF COAST... VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON DAY2 ALONG THE AL/FL GULF COAST...WHERE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF STRONGER WESTERLIES MAY ENHANCE CONVECTION ORGANIZATION AND THREAT OF ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS. ...CAROLINAS... RELATIVELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST OVER THE CAROLINAS ON SUNDAY...IN DRY SLOT OF UPPER LOW OVER OH. MODERATELY INSTABILITY /MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 2000 J/KG/ SUGGEST A RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS IN STRONGER CELLS. ..HART.. 07/17/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 17 17:38:37 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 17 Jul 2004 12:38:37 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200407171738.i6HHcdX16580@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 171736 SWODY2 SPC AC 171735 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1235 PM CDT SAT JUL 17 2004 VALID 181200Z - 191200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE IWD 40 ENE MSP 20 SW AXN 35 W FAR 70 NNE DVL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WNW YUM DAG BFL SAC MFR SLE SEA 10 N BLI ...CONT... CMX 10 NE EAU 20 N SUX 15 WSW BIE 20 ESE GLD CDS 10 NW BWD CLL MCB 15 NW TCL 45 ENE MKL DEC MKG OSC ...CONT... 55 NW 3B1 10 S HUL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ON SUNDAY ACROSS PARTS OF NERN ND/MN INTO NWRN WI... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WRN STATES WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH IN THE EAST. BAND OF 30-35 KT WINDS WILL EXTEND FROM CENTRAL CANADA ACROSS THE DAKOTAS/MN TO THE GULF COAST STATES...AND THEN CONTINUING ENEWD TO THE CAROLINAS/MID ATLANTIC STATES. A BAND OF MODERATELY STRONG SWLY WINDS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE PAC NW AS AN UPPER LOW... CURRENTLY OFF THE NW COAST...BEGINS TO MOVE INLAND. ...ND/MN... ETA/GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK TOWARD ND/ NRN MN BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN TO LAKE SUPERIOR/NRN WI SUNDAY NIGHT. AIR MASS IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM WRN ONTARIO ACROSS NWRN MN INTO NERN ND...WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY AND AROUND 40 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTING SUPERCELLS. ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD ESEWD ACROSS NERN MN TO NRN WI AND POTENTIALLY INTO THE WRN U.P. OF MI SUNDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ...CAROLINAS TO THE NERN GULF COAST... WEAK COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM THE OH TO LOWER MS VALLEYS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND SOUTH ALONG THE SRN GULF COAST STATES ON SUNDAY. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE PROGGED TO STEEPEN SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS INLAND SECTIONS OF ERN GA TO THE CAROLINAS AND SERN VA AS A DRY SLOT SPREADS ACROSS THIS REGION. THIS COMBINED WITH A MOIST AIR MASS IN ADVANCE OF THE WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY...AND SURFACE HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY. 30-35 KT OF SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR MULTICELLS AND A FEW SUPERCELLS PRODUCING ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. GIVEN LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...THIS AREA WILL REMAIN IN A 5 PERCENT CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS. SWD ACROSS THE NERN GULF COAST STATES...MODERATE INSTABILITY AND MODERATE WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT SOME STORM ORGANIZATION. HOWEVER...WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. ...SRN HIGH PLAINS... 30-35 KT OF NNWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ABOVE SELY LOW-LEVEL WINDS AT 10-15 KT WILL RESULT IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS. STRONG SURFACE HEATING COMBINED WITH AN AXIS OF SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LEE TROUGH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW DIURNAL SUPERCELLS TO DEVELOP WITH ISOLATED HAIL AND/OR A FEW DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS. ...PAC NW TO NRN ROCKIES... MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NWD ACROSS THIS REGION WITH MODELS INDICATING A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK FROM THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION ENEWD TO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. DESPITE SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR STORM ORGANIZATION... MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL...BUT INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS SHOULD RESULT IN A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ..PETERS.. 07/17/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 18 07:30:43 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 18 Jul 2004 02:30:43 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200407180730.i6I7UhX09034@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 180728 SWODY2 SPC AC 180727 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0227 AM CDT SUN JUL 18 2004 VALID 191200Z - 201200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NE MOT 10 NNE BIS 65 S Y22 GCC 70 E BIL 10 SE LWT 40 NE CTB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM YUM 40 NE TRM EDW MER SVE 4LW 10 NW SLE 25 SSW AST. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM LAF OTM HLC AMA SJT BPT CEW MCN TRI LUK LAF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...MT/ND/MN... HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN STATES IS FORECAST TO FLATTEN OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY MONDAY EVENING...AS STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATES ACROSS REGION. ETA/GFS SOLUTIONS DIFFER IN TIMING AND LOCATION OF THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL AFFECT PARTS OF MT/ND ON DAY2. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF WY/SD/MT/ND WILL TRANSPORT MOISTURE NORTHWARD...LEADING TO MODERATE INSTABILITY. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL MT AND SOUTHERN ALBERTA...SPREADING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO ND DURING THE EVENING. SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREAT. GFS SOLUTIONS SUGGESTS THAT THREAT WILL DEVELOP EASTWARD OVERNIGHT ACROSS ND INTO MN AHEAD OF STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS AREA MAY REQUIRE INCLUSION IN SLIGHT RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS IF SCENARIO BECOMES MORE LIKELY. ...NORTHERN ROCKIES... STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON MONDAY. SEVERAL DAYS OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY AID IN A SLOW MOISTENING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER...ALLOWING POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY. SCATTERED HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS. HOWEVER...THIS AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR GREATER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND AN INCREASED RISK OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL. ...GREAT LAKES REGION... ETA SOLUTIONS SHOWS A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS MN/WI MONDAY MORNING. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD INTO LOWER MI AND EVENTUALLY PARTS OF IND/OH DURING THE AFTERNOON. SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR/INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE FOR ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS. ...VA/NC... SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE AHEAD OF MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AS IT TRACKS EASTWARD AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY. SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S AND FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT A RISK OF ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS...IF POCKETS OF STRONG INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP. ..HART.. 07/18/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 18 17:45:35 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 18 Jul 2004 12:45:35 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200407181745.i6IHjXX16280@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 181743 SWODY2 SPC AC 181741 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1241 PM CDT SUN JUL 18 2004 VALID 191200Z - 201200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 NE MOT 35 S BIS 60 SSE Y22 40 ENE 81V 4BQ 65 NW MLS 75 ENE HVR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM LAF 10 E OTM 45 NNE CNU 45 NE PNC 10 N P28 20 SSW HLC AMA SJT BPT CEW MCN TRI LUK LAF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM YUM 40 NE TRM EDW MER 60 N SVE 25 E MFR 10 NW SLE 25 SSW AST. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN MT/NWRN SD AND WRN-CENTRAL ND... ...SYNOPSIS... WRN UPPER RIDGE NOSING INTO THE NRN ROCKIES AND WRN CANADA WILL BREAK DOWN ON MONDAY...AS THE NERN PACIFIC CLOSED LOW MOVES FURTHER INLAND ACROSS WRN CANADA. HEIGHT RISES ARE EXPECTED FROM KS SOUTH AND EWD AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS. THIS TREND WILL WEAKEN THE LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE OVER THE ERN STATES. ...ERN MT/WRN-CENTRAL ND/NWRN SD... WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH...LOCATED WITHIN PLUME OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND CURRENTLY OVER THE NRN GREAT BASIN...IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER CENTRAL MT BY 12Z MONDAY. THE 12Z ETA/GFS CONTINUE TO DIFFER IN THE TIMING OF THIS TROUGH AS IT MOVES EWD ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL STATES ON DAY 2. THE GFS REMAINS FASTER WITH THIS SYSTEM...WHILE THE ETA APPEARS TO BE CLOSER TO CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS. ETA FOLLOWED FOR CONVECTIVE THREAT. STEEP LAPSE RATES ACROSS ERN MT INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS SHOULD SUPPORT MODERATE INSTABILITY...ALONG AND EAST OF THE LEE TROUGH. INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH TOPS THE UPPER RIDGE AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LEE TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON OVER ERN MT/NERN WY. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS. LOWER SLIGHT RISK PROBABILITIES WILL BE MAINTAINED SINCE WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES/THERMAL RIDGE INDICATED BY THE GFS OVER ERN MT AT 00Z AND LAGGING WWD SOMEWHAT BY THE ETA MAY LIMIT THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF SEVERE STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. NONETHELESS...BOTH MODELS DO AGREE THAT CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ACROSS MAINLY ND...AND POTENTIALLY INTO WRN MN AS A STRENGTHENING LLJ INCREASES WAA FOR ELEVATED STORMS. ...WI/LOWER MI... THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS NERN MN/LAKE SUPERIOR DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY 1 PERIOD...SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE START OF DAY 2 FROM NRN WI INTO CENTRAL ONTARIO. STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS CANADA...WITH THE TRAILING SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT TRACKING ESEWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY. SPEED OF THE SYSTEM MAY LIMIT THE RETURN OF STRONGER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH ISOLATED STRONG WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL ALONG THE FRONT. ...MID ATLANTIC REGION... DESPITE WEAK LAPSE RATES...A MOIST AIR MASS WILL REMAIN ALONG THE COASTAL REGIONS RESULTING IN MODERATE INSTABILITY. WEAK UPPER SUPPORT SHOULD ALLOW FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...WITH ENOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. ...NRN ROCKIES... CONTINUED MOISTENING OF THE LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS FROM DAY 1 CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN HIGHER VALUES OF INSTABILITY FOR THE DAY 2 PERIOD OVER THE NRN ROCKIES. MODERATE SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION WITH A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...THOUGH FORECAST COVERAGE WARRANTS LOW PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME. ..PETERS.. 07/18/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 19 07:30:38 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 19 Jul 2004 02:30:38 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200407190730.i6J7UZX09931@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 190728 SWODY2 SPC AC 190727 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0227 AM CDT MON JUL 19 2004 VALID 201200Z - 211200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM INL EAU 55 NNW LAF DEC 40 SSW IRK OMA FSD JMS 50 NNE MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 NW CMX RHI MKG MTC ...CONT... 40 SSE LCH MCB TOI AHN CLT 35 SE PSK JKL BWG HRO MKO CSM CDS BGS 10 W DRT ...CONT... 45 W FHU 40 WNW SAD PRC 55 NW BLH BFL SAC RBL 4LW BOI GTF 65 ENE HVR. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ON TUESDAY OVER PARTS OF THE MIDWEST STATES... ...MIDWEST STATES... FAST WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY...WITH SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING FROM MT INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. MAIN SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL LIKELY EXTEND FROM EASTERN ND INTO IA/IL...WITH BACKED LOW LEVEL WINDS AND ENHANCED LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ALONG AND NORTH OF FRONT. THIS...COMBINED WITH APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF ND/MN/SD. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT ALONG BOUNDARY INTO PARTS OF IA/IL/MO. A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS FORECAST OVER THIS AREA WITH MLCAPE VALUES OVER 3500 J/KG. ALSO...VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. ...NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... OTHER ISOLATED HIGH-BASED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY OVER PARTS OF MT/WY AND WESTERN SD...WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT. ..HART.. 07/19/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 19 17:32:45 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 19 Jul 2004 12:32:45 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200407191732.i6JHWqX17480@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 191730 SWODY2 SPC AC 191729 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1229 PM CDT MON JUL 19 2004 VALID 201200Z - 211200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM INL 60 S DLH 25 ESE VOK 35 NW CGX 40 NE BMI 30 WNW SPI 10 NNW IRK 25 ESE OMA 15 ESE YKN 35 NNW 9V9 30 NNE MBG 65 NNW DVL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NE CMX 40 N GRB 35 NE MKG 25 NNE MTC ...CONT... 10 WSW GLS 45 SE POE 30 ESE MCB 45 S SEM 35 ENE CSG 10 NNW AHN 25 NNE SPA 40 SSW BLF 25 SSE JKL 45 NW CSV 10 NE HOP 30 SSE BLV 15 ENE JEF 25 SSW OJC 15 NNE P28 60 SW GAG 50 S LBB P07 ...CONT... 45 W FHU 40 WNW SAD PRC 55 NW BLH BFL SAC 35 NW MHS 60 SW RDM 45 SW S80 GTF 65 ENE HVR. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO IL... ...NRN PLAINS TO IL... UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE ROCKIES WILL FLATTEN ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AS SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVE ACROSS MT...THEN TURN SEWD TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY REGION. THESE FEATURES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY WELL DEFINED BUT LIKELY WILL RESULT IN SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR A LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM SD...SEWD INTO IA AND IL WITH WEAK WARM ADVECTION ATOP THIS ZONE DUE TO VEERED FLOW THROUGH MID LEVELS. WLY COMPONENT WILL PROVIDE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT FOR ENHANCED THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES. BY LATE AFTERNOON...MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD EVOLVE WITHIN WARM ADVECTION ZONE WHERE THERE APPEARS TO BE AN ENHANCED PROBABILITY FOR INITIATION JUST EAST OF SFC LOW FROM SRN SD/SRN MN INTO NRN IA. THIS OF COURSE IS PREDICATED ON DAY1 MCS ACTIVITY NOT DISPERSING AVAILABLE INSTABILITY THROUGH EARLY MORNING PRECIPITATION AND RESIDUAL LATE MORNING CLOUD COVER. OTHERWISE...PERSISTENT WARM ADVECTION MAY RESULT IN EPISODIC ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS MAINLY FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. DAMAGING WINDS OR PERHAPS LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS. ..DARROW.. 07/19/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 20 07:34:19 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 20 Jul 2004 02:34:19 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200407200734.i6K7YEX29208@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 200729 SWODY2 SPC AC 200728 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0228 AM CDT TUE JUL 20 2004 VALID 211200Z - 221200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW ROC UNI MVN SZL RSL GLD IML LBF BUB SUX 10 SE RST RHI CMX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSE CTY AYS AHN CHA ARG TUL CSM LBB 35 ESE P07 50 SE DRT COT 50 NNE VCT 20 SSW BPT ...CONT... 25 SSE FHU SOW SGU BIH SAC 10 S RBL 4LW 60 SW BOI TWF JAC BIL 4BQ ATY STC 10 SSE DLH 35 N HIB 40 W INL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION... ...GREAT LAKES REGION... BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL BE PRESENT OVER CENTRAL CANADA ON WEDNESDAY...WITH CYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES STATES. SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER EASTERN MT/WY IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON DAY1...AND INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ETA/GFS SOLUTIONS BOTH SUGGEST THAT A CLUSTER OF CONVECTION MAY BE ONGOING WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER WI AT 21/12Z. THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO RE-INTENSIFY BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AS THEY SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF MI/IL/IN/OH. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND HIGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE VALUES OVER 3500 J/KG ACROSS THIS REGION. THIS COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL PROMOTE SUPERCELL STORM DEVELOPMENT WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE. ...CENTRAL PLAINS... FARTHER WEST...SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND WESTWARD FROM MO/IL INTO NORTHERN KS. A VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG AND NORTH OF BOUNDARY ON WEDNESDAY...WITH A RATHER WEAK CAP. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN KS/NEB AND SPREAD EASTWARD ALONG BOUNDARY DURING THE EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN STRONGER CELLS. ..HART.. 07/20/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 20 17:24:09 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 20 Jul 2004 12:24:09 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200407201724.i6KHO0X01701@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 201722 SWODY2 SPC AC 201720 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1220 PM CDT TUE JUL 20 2004 VALID 211200Z - 221200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW ROC 20 SE HLG 45 SE LUK 35 ENE UIN 20 N SLN 45 SSW EAR 25 N SUX 10 SSW LSE RHI CMX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W EFK 40 WNW GFL 35 SSW IPT 25 NE EKN PSK 45 N RWI 25 SE ORF ...CONT... 60 SSE CTY AYS AHN CHA 15 N ARG 60 N JLN 35 E P28 LBB 35 ESE P07 ...CONT... 65 WNW MFE 50 ENE COT 40 E AUS 30 NNW POE 40 NNW BTR 40 W HUM ...CONT... 45 SW TUS 30 WNW SOW 20 E BCE BIH SAC 10 S RBL 4LW 60 SW BOI 40 E PIH 15 NE MQM BIL 45 NNW RAP ATY STC 10 SSE DLH 35 N HIB 40 W INL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION... ...SYNOPSIS... SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING INTO THE BC/NWRN WA COAST WILL FLATTEN TOP OF RIDGE CURRENTLY PLANTED OVER THE NRN ROCKIES PRIOR TO THE START OF THE PERIOD. A SERIES OF LOWER AMPLITUDE TROUGHS WILL PROCEED THIS SYSTEM...WITH ONE LIKELY SUPPORTING A MCS ALONG NOSE OF SWLY LLJ INTO THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES/NRN PLAINS STATES WILL SHIFT ESEWD TOWARDS THE WRN GREAT LAKES AND SSWWD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY LATE IN THE DAY. ...GREAT LAKES... PRIMARY SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL FOCUS ALONG BOTH MORNING MCS AND ITS ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW AND SURFACE COLD FRONT SHIFTING ESEWD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ETA AND ETAKF CONTINUE TO SUGGEST MCS AND ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW WILL REMAIN ACTIVE INTO THE CENTRAL/SRN GREAT LAKES DURING THE AFTERNOON...AS WEAK VORT MAX SHIFTS EWD. THIS AREA WILL REMAIN ALONG FRINGE OF STRONGER CAPPING AND WITHIN PLUME OF VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER /I.E. SURFACE DEW POINTS AOA 60F/...SUGGESTING A WEAKLY CAPPED YET STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. SHEAR VALUES WILL ALSO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND ORGANIZED LINES. EXPECT DEVELOPMENT WILL SPREAD EWD ACROSS MI WHICH MAY SPREAD AS FAR AS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES DURING THE EVENING. OTHER DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR ALONG OUTFLOW INTO NRN IL/NRN IND/NWRN OH THROUGH THE EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE FEED OF STRONGEST INSTABILITY AND MAY PROPAGATE SSEWD TOWARDS N-CENTRAL KY/SRN OH THROUGH THE EVENING. STRONGEST STORMS WILL PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...ESPECIALLY IF ACTIVITY EVOLVES INTO ONE OR MORE BOW ECHOES. SOME CONCERN REMAINS INTO THE NRN/WRN GREAT LAKES AND NRN MS RIVER VALLEY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...WITH UNCERTAINTIES ABOUT DEGREE OF AIR MASS RECOVERY IN WAKE OF MORNING STORMS. BOTH ETA AND GFS SUGGEST AXIS OF MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY AND WEAK CAPPING WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF FRONT NWD INTO THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY AND WI BY MID AFTERNOON. GIVEN PRESENCE OF SURFACE FRONT AND 35-45 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR...EXPECT AT LEAST A THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS...DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. AN ATTENDANT THREAT OF TORNADOES IS ALSO EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY NEAR TRIPLE POINT OF MORNING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ...CENTRAL PLAINS... CAPPING APPEARS TO WEAKEN ALONG COLD FRONT AS H7 THERMAL RIDGE IS SUPPRESSED SWD AND STRONG HEATING OCCURS BY THE LATE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT FROM IA INTO PARTS OF NEB AND KS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. THOUGH AIR MASS WILL LIKELY BECOME VERY UNSTABLE...DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN MARGINAL. THUS...ISOLATED/BRIEF SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP AS FAR WEST AS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. HOWEVER...PRIMARY THREAT OF ORGANIZED MULTICELLS WILL LIKELY REMAIN NEARER THE MO RIVER VALLEY EWD. ..EVANS.. 07/20/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 21 06:57:43 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 21 Jul 2004 01:57:43 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200407210657.i6L6vXX07102@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 210655 SWODY2 SPC AC 210654 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0154 AM CDT WED JUL 21 2004 VALID 221200Z - 231200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 W ERI MGW BKW TRI BWG MVN COU ICT DDC 35 NNW RSL OMA ALO 60 SE OSC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SSE DRT AUS 10 W GLS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N PIE AYS RMG 65 SSW CKV UNO BVO 55 E AMA MAF P07 ...CONT... 45 WSW FHU PHX 65 S SGU BIH SCK RBL LMT 55 SSE BNO TWF 35 ENE SUN 10 N MSO GTF MLS PIR FSD 10 E FRM VOK OSC ...CONT... 35 WNW EFK MSV 25 ENE ACY. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY... ...MID MS VALLEY INTO UPPER OH VALLEY... LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER CENTRAL CANADA WILL MOVE EASTWARD TO THE HUDSON BAY BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH BROAD CYCLONIC MID LEVEL WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES REGION. MODELS SUGGEST THAT WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM KS INTO NORTHERN OH BY 23/00Z...WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY ALONG AND SOUTH OF BOUNDARY /MLCAPE VALUES OVER 2500 J/KG/. RELATIVELY WEAK CAP SHOULD ALLOW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS AXIS...SPREADING SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS DURING THE EVENING. WIND FIELDS WILL BE MARGINAL FOR CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION /20-30KT AT 500MB/...BUT VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS MAY POSE A RISK OF A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. ...KS/MO... CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER WESTERN KS/EASTERN CO/TX PANHANDLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS COLD FRONT SURGES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. THESE STORMS MAY SPREAD EASTWARD INTO VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN KS AND WESTERN MO. DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL APPEAR POSSIBLE IN STRONGER CELLS. ..HART.. 07/21/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 21 17:36:18 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 21 Jul 2004 12:36:18 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200407211736.i6LHa5X18541@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 211733 SWODY2 SPC AC 211732 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1232 PM CDT WED JUL 21 2004 VALID 221200Z - 231200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNW SBN 20 W FWA 15 SSW IND 20 ENE SLO 45 NE CNU 45 ENE HUT 35 WNW SLN 40 SE HSI 25 SW OMA 15 N DSM 40 ESE JVL 15 NNW SBN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WNW CAR 20 NW MWN 15 NW PSF 25 WNW EWR 25 SW ACY ...CONT... 25 S CRP 50 SE SAT 35 SW CLL 25 SSE MCB 45 NNE MOB 15 E SEM 30 SSW HSV 10 WNW MKL 40 W UNO 35 ESE BVO 35 N FSI 60 NW ABI 30 ESE P07 ...CONT... 70 WSW TUS 15 W FLG 35 SSE CDC 35 S ELY 65 NE TPH 25 WSW TPH 45 NNE NID 65 NNE BFL 20 ESE SAC 55 NW RBL 40 SW MFR 55 NNW MFR 40 SW RDM 50 ENE BNO 40 SSW S80 40 SSE S06 35 NE MSO 50 E HLN 45 NNW SHR 25 NNE GCC CDR 10 N MHN 60 ENE ANW 15 NNW OTG 15 N RST 40 NNW MSN 25 SE MKG DTW. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF KS TO IL... ...CENTRAL PLAINS TO OH VALLEY... STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG SEWD ACROSS CANADA DURING THE DAY2 PERIOD WITH HEIGHT FALLS ONLY GLANCING THE MID MS VALLEY REGION ALONG SRN FRINGES OF STRONGER FLOW ALOFT. RESULTANT SFC PRESSURES WILL BUILD ACROSS THE PLAINS FORCING A SHARP COLD FRONT SEWD INTO KS...NRN MO...CENTRAL IL BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SURGE SOUTH OF ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOW ALOFT BUT LIKELY PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BY PEAK HEATING. FORECAST SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WITHIN MODERATELY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD PROPAGATE SLOWLY SWD...ESPECIALLY AS PRECIPITATION ALONG FRONTAL ZONE ENHANCES SEWD MOVEMENT OF SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT AS RELATIVELY WARM VERTICAL PROFILES DO NOT FAVOR PARTICULARLY LARGE HAIL. ...MIDDLE ATLANTIC... LATE DAY1 ELONGATED MCS SHOULD PROPAGATE EWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY EARLY IN THE DAY2 PERIOD...BUT MOST LIKELY BE NON SEVERE AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE CREST OF THE APPALACHIANS. THIS ACTIVITY MAY POSE A SEVERE THREAT DOWNSTREAM BY 18Z ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AS BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS BENEATH STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR DUE TO OFFSHORE UPPER LOW. IF SUFFICIENT CONVERGENCE CAN HOLD ALONG LEADING EDGE OF OLD CONVECTIVE DEBRIS...ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS ACROSS VA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS AREA WILL BE CONSIDERED FOR A POTENTIAL UPGRADE AT 06Z DAY1 UPDATE AS WED EVENING MCS SHOULD HAVE EVOLVED OVER THE OH VALLEY BY THIS TIME AND MORE CONFIDENCE WILL EXIST IN THE AFOREMENTIONED SCENARIO. ..DARROW.. 07/21/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 22 17:28:36 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 22 Jul 2004 12:28:36 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200407221728.i6MHSIX06937@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 221726 SWODY2 SPC AC 221724 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1224 PM CDT THU JUL 22 2004 VALID 231200Z - 241200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WSW GLS 40 NNW BPT 10 SSE ESF 45 NNE HEZ 50 W GLH 40 NNE TXK 25 S DUA 20 NNW SEP 50 NNE JCT HDO 20 SSE CRP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ESE YUM 30 ESE IGM PGA MLF 65 NW P38 35 SSW TPH 55 S BIH 25 WNW FAT 30 NNW SAC 50 WNW MHS 45 S EUG 60 ESE DLS 40 WNW S06 20 ESE FCA 30 SSE GTF 25 E COD 20 NW DGW 25 E CYS 45 SE LIC 35 NNW GCK 25 E MHK 15 ENE COU 50 SSW HUF 10 S DAY 10 SW CAK 20 N BFD 45 SW ART. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... UNUSUALLY STRONG SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD SEWD ACROSS ALL BUT THE GULF COAST STATES/ATLANTIC COAST BY LATE DAY2 IN THE WAKE OF CANADIAN UPPER TROUGH. LEADING EDGE OF THIS AIRMASS SHOULD PROVIDE THE ONLY MEANINGFUL FOCUS FOR POTENTIAL STRONG CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ...TN VALLEY TO SRN PLAINS... LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE APPEARS TO HAVE A REASONABLE HANDLE ON SURGING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE WELL SOUTH OF STRONGER FLOW ALOFT INTO SLOWLY WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE AXIS. RAPID BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING SHOULD AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE STRONGER INSTABILITY ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR...DESPITE THE SHALLOW NATURE OF THE FRONTAL ZONE AND THE TENDENCY FOR POST FRONTAL THUNDERSTORMS. PROFILES SUGGEST A FEW STORMS MAY GENERATE LOCALLY STRONG WINDS BUT SHOULD NOT BE PARTICULARLY EFFICIENT IN GENERATING HAIL. ...CAROLINAS TO UPSTATE NY... ADVANCING COLD FRONT ALONG SRN INFLUENCE OF UPPER TROUGH SHOULD ENHANCE CONVERGENCE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EARLY IN THE PERIOD FROM UPSTATE NY INTO PA. FORECAST VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG THUS MULTI-CELL CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS MAY STRUGGLE TO OBTAIN ORGANIZED SEVERE LEVELS...ESPECIALLY IF SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER PREVENTS BOUNDARY LAYER FROM DESTABILIZING SUFFICIENTLY. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WITH THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG BOTH THE COLD FRONT AND FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE LEE TROUGH INTO THE CAROLINAS. ..DARROW.. 07/22/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 23 06:31:06 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 23 Jul 2004 01:31:06 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200407230630.i6N6UlX22193@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 230628 SWODY2 SPC AC 230627 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0127 AM CDT FRI JUL 23 2004 VALID 241200Z - 251200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 ESE YUM 45 NW GBN 55 SSE FLG 55 SSE PGA 50 E MLF 55 SW DPG 35 WSW ELY 50 SE NFL 30 ESE BIH 15 ENE FAT 35 E SAC 40 ESE RBL 35 E MHS 45 WSW MHS 25 E 4BK 20 SSW SLE 45 SE SEA 45 ENE BLI ...CONT... 50 WNW CTB 20 WNW GTF 45 NNE BIL 25 NW GCC 30 SW PHP 40 N BUB 35 SSW HSI 15 SE TOP 30 NNW HRO 50 WSW MEM 25 W BHM 15 NW AHN 35 NNE SPA 30 W BKW 25 NNW EKN 15 SSE CXY 25 NNW BDR 15 WNW HYA ...CONT... 20 SW LCH 40 NW POE 15 E GGG 45 NW TYR 15 SSW SEP 25 NE JCT 30 SSE DRT. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... A FAIRLY BENIGN SEVERE PATTERN EXPECTED ACROSS THE LWR 48 ON SATURDAY. WEAK RIDGES WILL PREVAIL OVER THE SERN STATES AND CA/NV...WITH THE MAIN BELT OF THE WLYS CONFINED TO CNTRL/ERN CANADA. A WEAK SRN STREAM JET WILL EXTEND FROM SWRN CANADA SE ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE RCKYS AND THE CNTRL PLNS. A DISTURBANCE IN THIS FLOW...ATTM OVER ID/WRN MT...SHOULD SETTLE SE ACROSS WY/NRN CO AND THE CNTRL HI PLNS ON SATURDAY. AT LWR LEVELS...DIFFUSE FRONT MARKING SRN EDGE OF EXPANSIVE SURFACE ANTICYCLONE DEVELOPING/ELONGATING SWD ACROSS THE PLNS/MS VLY AND NERN STATES SHOULD REACH AN E TX/TN VLY/ERN CAROLINAS AXIS BY LATE SATURDAY. ...WY/CO... DIFFERENTIAL HEATING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WY AND CNTRL/NW CO LIKELY TO RESULT IN AFTERNOON STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THESE AREAS AS SLUGGISH LOW LEVEL FLOW REGIME MAINTAINS AMPLE SUPPLY OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE. LARGE SCALE ASCENT/DESTABILIZATION ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED UPPER IMPULSE MAY SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS/STORM CLUSTERS AS DEEP WNWLY SHEAR INCREASES TO AOA 30 KT. THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS...HOWEVER...SHOULD BE LIMITED TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND/MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AS MEAN MLCAPE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BLO 1000 J/KG. ELY LOW LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH CNTRL STATES SURFACE RIDGE MAY BOOST UPSLOPE COMPONENT ACROSS ERN WY/CO...AND ALLOW STORMS TO SPREAD EWD OFF THE MOUNTAINS. BUT STORM STRENGTH WILL LIKELY BE MITIGATED BY LOW CLOUDS/MORE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS OVER THE PLNS. ..CORFIDI.. 07/23/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 23 17:35:23 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 23 Jul 2004 12:35:23 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200407231735.i6NHZ2X15080@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 231732 SWODY2 SPC AC 231731 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1231 PM CDT FRI JUL 23 2004 VALID 241200Z - 251200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 ESE YUM 75 ENE BLH 30 NNE PRC 15 WSW PGA 50 E MLF 55 SW DPG 50 WNW ELY 45 NNW TPH 30 ESE BIH 15 ENE FAT 35 NNW SAC 30 WNW RBL 30 NE 4BK 25 SSE ONP 25 E OLM 45 ENE BLI ...CONT... 50 NNW FCA 45 NE 3DU 45 E LVM 20 WNW GCC 60 ENE DGW 20 SSW AIA 40 SSW IML 50 E LAA EHA 45 SSE LBL 25 NNE GAG 30 WSW HUT 30 ENE CNK 10 NNW FNB 25 SW P35 20 NW COU 35 W POF 25 S DYR 10 NW 0A8 35 S ANB 15 W RMG 30 NNW CHA 35 SSW LOZ 25 NNW SHD 40 ENE CXY 15 S CON 40 SSE HUL. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...CENTRAL ROCKIES... UPPER RIDGE HAS SHIFTED INTO THE SWRN U.S. AS NWLY FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. AT THE SFC...DOMINANT HIGH PRESSURE HAS WEDGED AGAINST THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND SHOULD BE RELUCTANT TO ERODE EAST WITH RIDGE AXIS NOT EXPECTED TO SHIFT OUT OF CO INTO KS UNTIL EARLY EVENING. COOL ELY LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD PREVENT SIGNIFICANT BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION DURING THE DAY2 PERIOD BUT SHOULD MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG/WEST OF THE FRONT RANGE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY LATE AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS SBCAPE VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE ON THE ORDER OF 500-800J/KG WITHIN MARGINAL LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT...ROUGHLY 6C/KM. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THIS REGION INDICATE MORE THAN ADEQUATE DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS...HOWEVER MARGINAL INSTABILITY MAY ULTIMATELY LIMIT THE OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL. ..DARROW.. 07/23/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 24 07:04:48 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 24 Jul 2004 02:04:48 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200407240704.i6O74PX09314@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 240701 SWODY2 SPC AC 240700 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0200 AM CDT SAT JUL 24 2004 VALID 251200Z - 261200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW ALS 30 ENE ASE 35 NW FCL 10 WNW BFF 30 E SNY 30 W GLD 55 S LAA 25 S RTN 25 NNW ALS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW IPL 40 W PRC 25 SW U17 25 SE PUC 30 WSW SLC 30 SE BAM 65 NW BIH 30 WSW TVL 25 SW SVE 15 NNW RBL 30 E EKA 20 ENE 4BK 35 SSE EUG 40 NNW RDM 15 N YKM 35 NNW 4OM ...CONT... 40 NW HVR 50 SE LWT 20 S GCC 45 SE RAP LBF 20 ESE GCK 60 SSW LBL 50 SW AMA 45 NW BGS 45 S ABI 25 NE MWL 50 ENE PRX 20 N LIT 35 SSW CGI 10 E SDF 30 NNE CRW 25 W CXY 10 E NEL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL RCKYS AND CNTRL HI PLNS... ...SYNOPSIS... WEAK FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE OVER THE LWR 48 ON SUNDAY AS RIDGING PERSISTS OVER THE SERN AND SWRN STATES...AND THE MAIN BELT OF THE WLYS REMAINS CONFINED TO CNTRL/SRN CANADA. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WLY FLOW IS EXPECTED...HOWEVER...OVER THE PACIFIC NW...ON SRN FRINGE OF STRONG IMPULSE CROSSING NRN BC/AB. A SLIGHT STRENGTHENING OF W TO NW FLOW WILL ALSO LIKELY OCCUR OVER THE CNTRL RCKYS/CNTRL PLNS AS EXISTING TROUGH AMPLIFIES IN RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE RIDGING DOWNSTREAM FROM BC/AB DISTURBANCE. FAIRLY STRONG SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IN NW CANADA ASSOCIATED WITH BC/AB TROUGH WILL BE REFLECTED BY INCREASED LEE TROUGHING OVER THE NRN/CNTRL HI PLNS IN THE U.S. OTHERWISE...EXPANSIVE SURFACE RIDGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SETTLE S ACROSS THE SRN PLNS...AND REMAIN STATIONARY FROM THE MID MS VLY TO NEW ENG. ...CNTRL HI PLNS... DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO FORM IN RESPONSE TO DIFFERENTIAL HEATING OVER THE CO/SRN WY RCKYS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...ALONG ERN PERIPHERY OF SWRN STATES RIDGE. AMPLE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD BE PRESENT OVER REGION TO SUPPORT SUSTAINED ACTIVITY GIVEN EXISTING MOISTURE ALREADY IN PLACE...AND MINIMAL AIR MASS CHANGE EXPECTED BETWEEN NOW AND SUNDAY. SLIGHT STRENGTHENING OF NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW...COUPLED WITH WEAK SELY UPSLOPE FLOW AT THE SURFACE...WILL RESULT IN A BAND OF 40 KT DEEP NWLY SHEAR OVER THE ERN HALF OF CO. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW ROTATING STORMS WITH HAIL/HIGH WIND GIVEN STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. AT THE SAME TIME...CONTINUED SWD MOTION OF CNTRL PLNS RIDGE SHOULD ALLOW FOR INCREASED HEATING/LOW LEVEL DESTABILIZATION JUST E OF THE MOUNTAINS RELATIVE TO TODAY. COUPLED WITH MODERATE NWLY DEEP SHEAR...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR STORMS TO SPREAD SEWD OFF THE MOUNTAINS LATER IN THE DAY. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY CONSOLIDATE INTO A S- OR SSE-MOVING MCS OVER SRN CO/NRN NM SATURDAY NIGHT. ...INTERIOR PAC NW... A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP WITH AFTERNOON HEATING OVER PARTS OF ERN WA/ERN ORE/ID AND WRN MT...WHERE MODEL AND STLT DATA SUGGEST THAT A WEAK IMPULSE WILL TRACK EWD ALONG SRN FRINGE OF FAST WLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH BC/AB DISTURBANCE. ..CORFIDI.. 07/24/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 24 17:27:41 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 24 Jul 2004 12:27:41 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200407241727.i6OHRHX20549@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 241725 SWODY2 SPC AC 241724 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1224 PM CDT SAT JUL 24 2004 VALID 251200Z - 261200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE ALS 35 WSW COS DEN 35 NNW LIC 15 SSE LIC LHX 40 ESE TAD 40 SSE RTN 30 N LVS 40 SE ALS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NE CTB 3HT 35 SE WRL DGW BFF IML 10 WNW EHA 45 ENE CVS LBB 40 SSW SPS 35 NNW ADM BVO SGF CGI 45 SW CMH 30 SE MGW PSB 20 S JFK ...CONT... 25 WSW IPL IGM CDC 45 SSE ELY 65 NE TPH 50 WNW BIH 40 WSW TVL RBL 30 E EKA 20 ESE 4BK 35 SSE EUG 45 N RDM 45 WNW ALW 30 NNW 63S. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FRONT RANGE OF CO AND NERN NM... ...SYNOPSIS... AREA OF LOW PRESSURE/TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL SLOWLY AMPLIFY AND SHIFT EWD INTO THE MID MO RIVER VALLEY...IN RESPONSE TO A STRONGER TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE INTO THE PACIFIC NW/BRITISH COLUMBIA. WEAK FLOW WILL COVER MUCH OF THE CONUS... THOUGH THE WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY IN PACIFIC NW AND IN THE CENTRAL ROCKIES/PLAINS ON THE BACKSIDE OF CENTRAL U.S.TROUGH. COLD FRONT FROM TX EWD INTO THE CAROLINAS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SLOWLY SWD...AS EXPANSIVE SURFACE RIDGE FROM THE SRN PLAINS NEWD INTO NERN U.S. BUILD SLOWLY SWD. ...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS... AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EWD OF CO...BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BECOME SELY AND AID IN MAINTAINING MID 50 DEGREE DEWPOINTS. DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD AID THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN RESPONSE TO DIFFERENTIAL HEATING. HOWEVER...STORMS MAY HAVE SOME DIFFICULTY MOVING INTO THE PLAINS...AS MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER/SELY UPSLOPE FLOW MAY MAINTAIN LOW CLOUDS MOST OF THE DAY. STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL HAVE SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS...AS STRENGTHENING NWLY MID LEVEL WINDS COUPLED WITH SELY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL RESULT IN 40 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THE SHEAR AND MLCAPES NEAR 1000 J/KG WILL SUPPORT A FEW ROTATING STORMS WITH HAIL/HIGH WIND. STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE EWD INTO THE PLAINS AND ENCOUNTER A MORE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. ...SRN AZ... MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY. MID LEVEL NELY FLOW IS FORECAST TO INCREASE ACROSS SRN AZ AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS BETWEEN THE UPPER HIGH OVER CA AND THE TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY. IF CLOUDS DO NOT INHIBIT DESTABILIZATION/HEATING...STORMS SHOULD BE ABLE TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND THEN MOVE WWD ACROSS THE DESERTS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH A POSSIBILITY OF STRONG WIND GUSTS. ...GULF COASTAL STATES... STRONG HEATING IS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT...RESULTING IN MLCAPES FROM 2500 TO 3500 J/KG. THE FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO BE VERY WEAK WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 10 KT. HOWEVER...THE STRONG INSTABILITY WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW BRIEF HAIL/WIND EVENTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ...INTERIOR PAC NW... A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP WITH AFTERNOON HEATING OVER PARTS OF THE AREA AS STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW/UPPER TROUGH BRUSHES THE AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGESTIVE OF AN ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUST OR TWO. ..IMY.. 07/24/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 25 07:32:50 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 25 Jul 2004 02:32:50 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200407250732.i6P7WPX14951@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 250729 SWODY2 SPC AC 250728 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0228 AM CDT SUN JUL 25 2004 VALID 261200Z - 271200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 NW DVL 10 W BIS 15 W 9V9 20 NE IML 25 N LBL 25 NNW AMA 10 S PVW 20 WNW ABI 35 E TPL 40 NNW POE 50 W JAN 20 WNW CBM 45 WSW BNA 35 NNW HOP 10 N MDH 35 N ALN 25 ENE PIA 20 NE CGX FNT 95 NNW ERI 35 ESE BUF 20 NNW IPT 30 NNE HGR DCA 15 E SBY ...CONT... 30 NNW SAN 55 W EED 60 W GCN 50 SSE U17 40 S CNY 35 SW PUC 40 W U24 70 NE TPH 40 ESE SVE 30 NNW RBL 40 ESE CEC 30 NNE MFR 50 ENE BNO 55 ENE S80 15 SW S06 10 ENE GEG 15 S 63S 50 NE 63S. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... PATTERN WILL BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE CYCLONIC ACROSS THE LWR 48 ON MONDAY AS /1/ SWRN STATES RIDGE RETREATS W OFF THE CA CST.../2/ SERN U.S. RIDGE IS SUPPRESSED BY CONTINUED AMPLIFICATION/ PROGRESSION OF TROUGH NOW EVOLVING OVER THE CNTRL PLNS AND /3/ STRONG IMPULSE CROSSING BC/AB LATER TODAY CONTINUES E/SE INTO SASKATCHEWAN. AT LWR LEVELS...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH SASKATCHEWAN SYSTEM SHOULD DROP S TO THE AB/MT BORDER LATE MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY AS PREFRONTAL/LEE TROUGH REACHES FAR WRN ND. IN THE EAST...GRADUAL DEEPENING OF UPPER TROUGH LIKELY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY WEAK CYCLOGENESIS/INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPMENT OVER THE OH VLY. ...NRN RCKYS... SCATTERED DIURNAL STORMS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF ID/WRN MT AND WY ON MONDAY...WHERE STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL EXIST BENEATH 20-25 KT WLY MID LEVEL FLOW ALONG SRN FRINGE OF AB/ SASKATCHEWAN UPPER IMPULSE. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...AND WILL KEEP CONVECTION HIGH-BASED. BUT COMBINATION OF MODEST UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW AND INVERTED-VEE ENVIRONMENT MAY ALLOW STORMS TO ORGANIZE INTO A FEW SMALL FORWARD-PROPAGATING CLUSTERS WITH GUSTY WINDS. LATER IN THE PERIOD...A FEW STRONG STORMS ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH AB/SASKATCHEWAN DISTURBANCE MAY CLIP NW MT. WHILE AMPLE DEEP SHEAR WILL EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS...UNFAVORABLE TIME OF DAY AND LIMITED DEGREE OF CONVERGENCE SHOULD KEEP ANY SUCH ACTIVITY ISOLATED. ...NRN/CNTRL HI PLNS... BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL INCREASE INVOF LEE TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL AND NRN HI PLNS ON MONDAY AS SLY FLOW STRENGTHENS IN RESPONSE TO SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS OVER SASKATCHEWAN. THIS WILL ENHANCE CHANCE FOR STORM INITIATION ALONG LEE TROUGH IN ERN CO/WY...WHERE AMPLE /35-40 KT/ DEEP NWLY SHEAR WILL EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS. BUT INCREASING WLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO LIKELY STRENGTHEN CAP. THUS...OVERALL THREAT IN THIS REGION APPEARS QUITE CONDITIONAL AND TOO LOW ATTM TO WARRANT A CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK OF SEVERE. ...AZ... MODEST NLY FLOW ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN POTENTIAL FOR SWD PROPAGATION OF DIURNAL STORMS FORMING ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM INTO THE LOWER DESERTS. HOWEVER...SETUP DOES NOT APPEAR CONDUCIVE TO UPSCALE DEVELOPMENT INTO STRONG/ORGANIZED CLUSTERS. ..CORFIDI.. 07/25/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 25 17:15:25 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 25 Jul 2004 12:15:25 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200407251714.i6PHEvX21801@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 251713 SWODY2 SPC AC 251712 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1212 PM CDT SUN JUL 25 2004 VALID 261200Z - 271200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 N MOT PHP IML DHT 30 ESE CVS 40 NW BGS SJT AUS CLL 35 SSW TXK PBF DYR MVN 25 SE SPI MMO 25 S MKG FNT 30 NNW BUF ART 50 NE UCA ALB POU JFK ...CONT... 10 W CZZ TRM EED SGU 50 WNW MLF NFL 35 SW MHS MFR 50 SSE BKE S80 3TH 65 NW FCA. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...IS FORECAST TO BE EJECTED ENEWD THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY ...AS A STRONGER TROUGH DROPS SEWD FROM SASKATCHEWAN INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER MUCH OF THE NATION EAST OF THE ROCKIES...THOUGH WEAK LOW PRESSURE/INVERTED TROUGH WILL DEVELOP IN THE OH VALLEY...AND A COLD FRONT SHOULD DROP SEWD INTO MT LATE IN THE PERIOD. ...AZ... MODELS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF THE PAST FEW DAYS. THIS INCLUDES AMPLE MID LEVEL MOISTURE/DIURNAL HEATING FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH NELY MID LEVEL WINDS PUSHING THE CONVECTION SWWD INTO THE DESERT FLOORS BY LATE AFTERNOON. WILL ONLY ISSUE LOW PROBABILITIES ATTM AS CONVECTION TONIGHT MAY RESULT IN REMNANT CLOUD COVER AND WEAKEN LAPSE RATES. ...ERN WY/ AND WRN NEB/SD... BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AS LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS WEST OF AREA. SMALL HIGH LEVEL VORT MAX...EMBEDDED IN HIGH LEVEL FLOW...SHOULD MOVE EWD THROUGH ID TODAY AND INTO WY ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INITIATE HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS OVER WY MONDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER SO STRONG WIND GUSTS WOULD BE POSSIBLE. AS THESE STORMS MOVE INTO WRN NEB/SD MONDAY EVENING...THEY WILL ENCOUNTER A MORE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH 30-40 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR. HOWEVER...INCREASING WLY FLOW ABOUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL RAISE 700 MB TEMPERATURES 4-5C FROM TODAY. THESE WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL STRENGTHEN THE CAP AND COULD INHIBIT STORMS FROM TAPPING INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS...ONLY MINIMAL SEVERE PROBABILITIES FORECAST ATTM. ...MT... A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON IN SASKATCHEWAN AND THEN SPREAD INTO MT MONDAY NIGHT. WHILE DEEP SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR STORM ORGANIZATION...UNFAVORABLE TIME OF DAY AND A RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL UNTIL THE NEXT DAY. ...CENTRAL GULF COASTAL STATES NEWD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY... WITH DIURNAL HEATING...THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION ALONG AND AHEAD OF SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT. INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BE MUCH WEAKER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS...SO THREAT FOR SEVERE SHOULD BE VERY LOW. ..IMY.. 07/25/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 25 17:19:39 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 25 Jul 2004 12:19:39 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200407251719.i6PHJSX23087@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 251717 SWODY2 SPC AC 251716 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1216 PM CDT SUN JUL 25 2004 VALID 261200Z - 271200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 N MOT PHP IML DHT 30 ESE CVS 40 NW BGS SJT AUS CLL 35 SSW TXK PBF DYR MVN 25 SE SPI MMO 25 S MKG FNT 30 NNW BUF ART 50 NE UCA ALB POU JFK ...CONT... 10 W CZZ TRM EED SGU 50 WNW MLF NFL 35 SW MHS MFR 50 SSE BKE S80 3TH 65 NW FCA. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...IS FORECAST TO BE EJECTED ENEWD THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY ...AS A STRONGER TROUGH DROPS SEWD FROM SASKATCHEWAN INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER MUCH OF THE NATION EAST OF THE ROCKIES...THOUGH WEAK LOW PRESSURE/INVERTED TROUGH WILL DEVELOP IN THE OH VALLEY...AND A COLD FRONT SHOULD DROP SEWD INTO MT LATE IN THE PERIOD. ...AZ... MODELS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF THE PAST FEW DAYS. THIS INCLUDES AMPLE MID LEVEL MOISTURE/DIURNAL HEATING FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH NELY MID LEVEL WINDS PUSHING THE CONVECTION SWWD INTO THE DESERT FLOORS BY LATE AFTERNOON. WILL ONLY ISSUE LOW PROBABILITIES ATTM AS CONVECTION TONIGHT MAY RESULT IN REMNANT CLOUD COVER AND WEAKEN LAPSE RATES. ...ERN WY/ AND WRN NEB/SD... BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AS LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS WEST OF AREA. SMALL HIGH LEVEL VORT MAX...EMBEDDED IN HIGH LEVEL FLOW...SHOULD MOVE EWD THROUGH ID TODAY AND INTO WY ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INITIATE HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS OVER WY MONDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER SO STRONG WIND GUSTS WOULD BE POSSIBLE. AS THESE STORMS MOVE INTO WRN NEB/SD MONDAY EVENING...THEY WILL ENCOUNTER A MORE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH 30-40 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR. HOWEVER...INCREASING WLY FLOW ABOUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL RAISE 700 MB TEMPERATURES 4-5C FROM TODAY. THESE WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL STRENGTHEN THE CAP AND COULD INHIBIT STORMS FROM TAPPING INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS...ONLY MINIMAL SEVERE PROBABILITIES FORECAST ATTM. ...MT... A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON IN SASKATCHEWAN AND THEN SPREAD INTO MT MONDAY NIGHT. WHILE DEEP SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR STORM ORGANIZATION...UNFAVORABLE TIME OF DAY AND A RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL UNTIL THE NEXT DAY. ...CENTRAL GULF COASTAL STATES NEWD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY... WITH DIURNAL HEATING...THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION ALONG AND AHEAD OF SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT. INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BE MUCH WEAKER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS...SO THREAT FOR SEVERE SHOULD BE VERY LOW. ..IMY.. 07/25/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 26 07:34:35 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 26 Jul 2004 02:34:35 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200407260734.i6Q7Y5X03625@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 260731 SWODY2 SPC AC 260730 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0230 AM CDT MON JUL 26 2004 VALID 271200Z - 281200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW RRT 40 ENE ABR 20 E ANW 30 NW IML 10 SSE BFF 25 NNW CPR 55 ENE COD 30 SE 4BQ 35 SE DIK 50 NNE MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 N BML 35 SE AUG ...CONT... 40 E INL 30 NW RWF 15 SE OLU 20 NNW HUT 20 WNW OKC 20 NNE FTW 30 SW LFK 10 N BTR 15 N SEM 20 W HSS 25 ENE CRW 20 ENE CMH 10 W DAY 30 ESE SBN 35 SE OSC 160 NNW BUF ...CONT... 20 SE IPL 30 E EED 40 SSE PGA 30 SSW 4HV 30 SW U24 35 N DPG 20 WNW RKS 25 SSE RIW 30 ENE WEY 25 NNW 27U 50 S S06 45 NE 63S. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE NRN PLNS... ...SYNOPSIS... A BROAD CYCLONIC PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LWR 48 ON TUESDAY AS POTENT UPPER SYSTEM NOW ENTERING AB CONTINUES E/SE ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN INTO MANITOBA. AT THE SAME TIME...TROUGH NOW OVER THE MID MS VLY EXPECTED TO FURTHER AMPLIFY AS IT CONTINUES SLOWLY E/NE UP THE OH VLY. FARTHER S...A WEAK...CYCLONICALLY-CURVED SRN BANACH JET WILL EXTEND FROM THE SRN GRT BASIN ACROSS THE SRN PLNS TO THE LWR MS VLY. AT LWR LEVELS...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH SASKATCHEWAN SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM NRN MT INTO WY AND THE DAKS DURING THE PERIOD...WHILE LEE TROUGH NOW OVER THE NRN/CNTRL HI PLNS PROGRESSES E INTO THE DAKS/CNTRL NEB. IN THE EAST...WEAK LOW NEARLY COLOCATED WITH OH VLY UPPER TROUGH EXPECTED TO EDGE ONLY SLOWLY E FROM OH INTO WRN PA/NY AS ATTENDANT WARM FRONT LIFTS N ACROSS MD/DE. ...NRN PLNS... THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO FORM WITH AFTERNOON HEATING INVOF COLD FRONT SRN MT AND NRN/CNTRL WY...WHERE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY /MLCAPE OF 500 TO 1000 J PER KG/ AND 35-40 KT DEEP SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT TO SUPPORT SUSTAINED ACTIVITY/POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS. STORMS MAY ALSO FORM IN MORE STRONGLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT ALONG PREFRONTAL TROUGH IN THE DAKOTAS...WRN/CNTRL NEB AND ERN CO. GREATER INSTABILITY WILL EXIST IN THIS REGION RELATIVE TO POINTS FARTHER W /MLCAPE TO 2000 J PER KG/...BUT DEEP SHEAR WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK /RANGING FROM AROUND 15 KTS IN CO TO 25 KTS IN ND/. HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SUSTAINED STORMS... ESPECIALLY IN SRN MT/WY...AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO COULD OCCUR IN THE DAKOTAS. OVERALL PATTERN DOES NOT...HOWEVER...APPEAR SUPPORTIVE OF WIDESPREAD SEVERE. WHILE GLANCING INFLUENCE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS SRN CANADA MAY ALLOW SOME OF THE ACTIVITY TO CONSOLIDATE INTO A CLUSTER OR TWO THAT PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WEAKNESS OF DEEP SHEAR AND ABSENCE OF RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE SUGGEST THAT ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN LIMITED. ...UPR OH VLY TO MID ATL CST... A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL EXIST TUESDAY AFTERNOON IF SURFACE HEATING CAN OCCUR IN AREA E/SE OF SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH OH VLY UPPER TROUGH. WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND SLOW RETREAT OF MODIFIED POLAR AIR MASS NOW IN PLACE OVER REGION WILL LIKELY LIMIT LOW LEVEL DESTABILIZATION ALONG AND N OF WARM FRONT...WHERE FAVORABLE MOISTURE/KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT /LOW LCLS...CONSIDERABLE LOW LEVEL VEERING...SFC TO 1 KM SHEAR AOA 25 KTS/ WILL EXIST. SEVERE THREAT WILL BE CONDITIONAL ON PRESENCE OF BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR LOW LEVEL DESTABILIZATION/STEEPENING OF BOUNDARY LAYER LAPSE RATES. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY REGARDING DEGREE OF SUNSHINE...A CATEGORICAL SEVERE OUTLOOK SEEMS UNJUSTIFIED ATTM. ..CORFIDI.. 07/26/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 26 17:15:50 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 26 Jul 2004 12:15:50 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200407261715.i6QHFJX13987@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 261712 SWODY2 SPC AC 261711 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1211 PM CDT MON JUL 26 2004 VALID 271200Z - 281200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM RRT FAR ATY 10 SE YKN 20 N BUB MHN 10 ESE CDR 20 W RAP REJ DIK 65 NNW DVL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE IPL 30 E EED 20 N P38 ELY EKO 10 ESE TWF 10 SSE 27U 10 N PUW 35 NNW 4OM ...CONT... 10 N INL AXN OTG HSI RSL 15 SSE END FSI MWL 30 SW LFK 25 ESE ESF 20 NNW MEI HSV CSV 10 N JKL 10 W DAY 35 W TOL 35 SE OSC 160 NNW BUF ...CONT... 35 NNW BML 40 N AUG 15 SW BHB. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TUESDAY AFTN/EVE ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS.... WEAK...BROADLY CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. SEVERAL SMALLER SCALE TROUGHS/CLOSED LOWS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS REGIME...AND MODELS SUGGEST THESE FEATURES WILL REMAIN SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE. MOST SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM MAY BE ONE NOW DIGGING IN THE LEE OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. THIS TROUGH/MID-LEVEL CLOSED LOW IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE SLOWLY DIGGING SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE NORTH CENTRAL CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER THROUGH LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE TURNING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CANADIAN PROVINCES TUESDAY NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...UPPER TROUGH IN WEAK SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES IS PROGGED TO DIG ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS STATES...WHILE A DOWNSTREAM CLOSED LOW/UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. ...NORTHERN PLAINS... PRE-FRONTAL LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE/SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BECOME FOCUS FOR DESTABILIZATION TUESDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE DAKOTAS. WHILE RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE WILL NOT OCCUR...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ALREADY PRESENT...WITH LOWER/ MID 50S DEW POINTS...SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. STRONG DAYTIME HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A RATHER DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...WITH CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG BY LATE AFTERNOON. WHILE THIS IS NOT PARTICULARLY EXCESSIVE...LARGE LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT FOR DOWNBURSTS. DAMAGING WIND THREAT MAY BE ENHANCED BY DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF MOMENTUM ASSOCIATED WITH 20 TO 30 KT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET NEAR/JUST AHEAD OF SURFACE TROUGH AXIS. STRONGER MID/UPPER FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH DIGGING TROUGH COULD SPREAD AS FAR SOUTH AS THE DAKOTAS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT PRIMARY FORCING FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY TO BE DAYTIME HEATING TO CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES. THUS...IT APPEARS STORMS DEVELOPING IN SURFACE TROUGH/JUST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT LIKELY WILL WEAKEN EARLY TUESDAY EVENING WITH ONSET OF RADIATIONAL COOLING. HOWEVER...AS LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION BECOMES ENHANCED ON NOSE OF SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE BENEATH WEAK DIFLUENT UPPER FLOW REGIME. SHEAR WILL BE LIMITED...BUT MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY BECOME STEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL THREAT INTO THE NIGHT. ...SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES... THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME FAIRLY NUMEROUS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH...ACROSS PARTS OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES. WITH RELATIVELY COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES CONTRIBUTING TO STEEP LAPSE RATES...THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT MAY BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW VIGOROUS STORMS WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND ISOLATED MICROBURSTS. ...EASTERN U.S... SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ALONG/AHEAD OF MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS TRAILING FROM CLOSED LOW LIFTING INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. THOUGH FLOW FIELDS/SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE MODERATE IN STRENGTH NEAR/EAST OF MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION... EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO MINIMIZE SEVERE THREAT. WARM MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT/WEAK LAPSE RATES WILL ALSO LIMIT CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY SOUTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN GULF AND SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES. ..KERR.. 07/26/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 27 07:34:27 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 27 Jul 2004 02:34:27 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200407270733.i6R7XsX07011@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 270732 SWODY2 SPC AC 270731 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0231 AM CDT TUE JUL 27 2004 VALID 281200Z - 291200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ENE STC 45 NNE RST 35 NW CNK 45 E LBL 45 SE LAA 30 SE AKO 25 NNW FCL 20 E CPR 10 WNW ANW 35 SSW AXN 50 ENE STC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 NNW ANJ 30 NE GRB 15 NNE DBQ 35 SW DSM 25 ENE MHK 30 S JLN 30 SW LIT 10 N ESF 40 N GPT 25 WSW AUO 30 SW AVL 30 S AOO 30 WSW ELM 30 NNW BUF ...CONT... 45 ENE CTB MLS 50 SE REJ 30 NNE PIR 40 NE ABR 30 SSE DVL 25 S MOT 55 NNW ISN ...CONT... 80 WSW TUS 40 ESE GBN 35 ESE IGM 20 WSW GCN 80 WNW GUP CEZ 15 S EGE 30 N CAG 30 W JAC 60 NE BOI 30 SSW BNO 40 W SVE 35 WSW RBL 30 ENE 4BK 45 NW DLS 55 ENE BLI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL PLNS/LWR MO VLY... ...SYNOPSIS... BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE HEIGHTS REBOUND SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. UPPER SYSTEM WHICH WILL GLANCE THE DAKOTAS LATER TODAY SHOULD LIFT NE TOWARD HUDSON BAY ON WEDNESDAY AS UPSTREAM IMPULSE DROPS SE INTO SASKATCHEWAN. IN THE EAST...TROUGH NOW OVER THE OH VLY EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT LIFTS E/NE ACROSS THE LWR GRT LKS/NRN APLCNS. FARTHER S...A BROAD LOW LATITUDE TROUGH IS EVOLVING ATTM IN WEAK SRN STREAM JET OVER THE SRN GRT BASIN/SRN RCKYS. THE TROUGH SHOULD CONTINUE SLOWLY E INTO THE SRN PLNS BY LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY. AT LWR LEVELS...A SERIES OF WEAKENING COLD FRONTS WILL USHER COOLER/DRIER AIR TO THE NRN RCKYS/PLNS. THE SRN-MOST FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM ERN ND THROUGH CNTRL SD/NW NEB AND ERN WY AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. FARTHER S..SURFACE PATTERN WILL PROBABLY BECOME COMPLICATED BY A SERIES OF WEAKER SURGES/LEE TROUGH SEGMENTS WHICH WILL TEND TO MOVE E/SE ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN PLNS IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED WLY FLOW/SRN STREAM DISTURBANCES. ...CNTRL PLNS/LWR MO VLY... MAIN COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH CANADIAN UPPER IMPULSE SHOULD SETTLE SE ACROSS MN/ERN SD/NEB AND SE WY ON WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT...AND ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM DAY 1 CONVECTION...WILL SERVE AS MAIN FOCUS FOR DIURNAL STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE N CNTRL STATES. THE GREATEST SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY...WITH MLCAPE APPROACHING 2000 J/KG...WILL LIKELY EXIST OVER PARTS OF NEB/SE SD AND WRN KS...WHERE CONVERGENCE SHOULD ALSO BE MAXIMIZED INVOF FRONT'S INTERSECTION WITH LEE TROUGH AND 20 KT SLY LLJ. DEEP SHEAR WILL BE RATHER WEAK /AROUND 25 KT/. BUT EVEN WITH MODEST SHEAR...COMBINATION OF DEEP/SUSTAINED CONVERGENCE AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW MULTICELL CLUSTERS WITH HAIL/HIGH WIND. PRESENCE OF SRN STREAM DISTURBANCE WILL PROBABLY LIMIT NOCTURNAL STRENGTHENING OF LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE CNTRL PLNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NEVERTHELESS...CONCENTRATED FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT AND EXISTING POOL OF INSTABILITY SUGGEST THAT THE STORMS WILL CONSOLIDATE INTO AN MCS THAT SHOULD MOVE E/SE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NEB/WRN KS EARLY THURSDAY. ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING NEWD ALONG COLD FRONT INTO NW IA AND SRN/CNTRL MN...WHERE SOMEWHAT STRONGER /30 KT/ DEEP SHEAR BUT MORE LIMITED INSTABILITY /MLCAPE TO 1000 J PER KG/ WILL LIKELY EXIST. FARTHER S...SCATTERED STRONG...MAINLY MULTICELL STORMS/STORM CLUSTERS...MAY ALSO DEVELOP SWD ALONG LEE TROUGH INTO THE OK/TX PANHANDLE REGION AND W TX...WHERE MLCAPE WILL EXCEED 2000 J/KG BENEATH 20-25 KT SRN STREAM JET. ...MID ATLANTIC... A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS WILL EXIST INVOF SLOW-MOVING WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LWR GRT LKS UPPER TROUGH. EXPECTED MOIST ADIABATIC PROFILES AND CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LIMIT LOW LEVEL DESTABILIZATION. BUT MODERATE /40+ KT/ MEAN SWLY LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL PROVIDE AMPLE SHEAR FOR ORGANIZATION OF ANY SUSTAINED STORMS THAT DO FORM. ANY RESULTING THREAT FOR SMALL SCALE BOWS/DAMAGING WIND WILL BE CONDITIONAL UPON REALIZATION OF SUFFICIENT SURFACE HEATING TO STEEPEN LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ..CORFIDI.. 07/27/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 27 17:30:10 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 27 Jul 2004 12:30:10 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200407271729.i6RHTaX11394@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 271727 SWODY2 SPC AC 271726 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1226 PM CDT TUE JUL 27 2004 VALID 281200Z - 291200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE CPR 30 E DGW AIA MCK P28 CSM 30 NW SPS 30 SSE ABI 20 NNW SJT 20 E BGS LBB AMA LAA 10 NE LIC 10 N DEN 15 SE CPR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 WSW TUS 40 ESE GBN 10 SW PRC GCN CDC MLF 10 SSE SLC 10 SSE MLD TWF 80 WNW OWY 10 SE 4LW 60 SW RDM 45 NW DLS 55 ENE BLI ...CONT... 60 ENE 63S HLN BIL 4BQ RAP 15 E PHP PIR JMS 40 WSW DVL 55 NE MOT ...CONT... 55 NNW ANJ 45 E ESC MSN 10 NNE IRK SZL JLN FYV HOT 40 WSW GLH CBM RMG PSK EKN DUJ 30 WSW BUF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS WEDNESDAY AFTN ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS.... SLOW PROGRESSION OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL CONTINUE WITHIN BROADER SCALE WEAK CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW REGIME. UPPER TROUGH OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION BY EARLY WEDNESDAY IS PROGGED TO GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL OCCUR AS UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLOWLY DIGS ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER. IN TANDEM WITH THIS FEATURE...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH...EMBEDDED WITHIN WEAKER SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES...WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. ...INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO PLAINS... DRYING WILL OCCUR AT MID-LEVELS ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN...WHERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BECOME LESS NUMEROUS WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT STILL APPEARS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ROCKIES...AND AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH AXES ACROSS THE PLAINS. MID-LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...STEEPER LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONGER CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO PARTS OF THE HIGH PLAINS...BENEATH WEAK TO MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER FLOW. 30 TO 40 KT NORTHWESTERLY JET DIGGING TO THE WEST OF NORTHERN SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATELY STRONG SHEAR PROFILES SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS IN LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME DEVELOPING FROM THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO AND SOUTHEAST WYOMING. CAPE UP TO AROUND 1000 J/KG APPEARS POSSIBLE...AND SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. OTHER SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY FARTHER TO THE SOUTH...AHEAD OF SURFACE FRONT...FROM PARTS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS/ SOUTHEAST COLORADO INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE REGION. WHILE NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW REGIME AND ASSOCIATED SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE WEAKER...DEVELOPMENT OF WARMER/DEEPER BOUNDARY LAYER WITH 60S DEW POINTS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MORE FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT. MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE WILL EXCEED 1000 J/KG...AND MAY APPROACH 2000 J/KG BY LATE AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN MOST VIGOROUS STORMS...BEFORE ACTIVITY WEAKENS WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ...NORTHEAST STATES... BAND OF PRECIPITATION IN WARM ADVECTION REGIME WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD OFF NORTHERN/MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS WEDNESDAY...WITH MID-LEVEL DRYING OVERSPREADING AREAS TO THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND ACROSS EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA/NEW YORK STATE. THIS WILL ACCOMPANY 30 TO 40 KT SOUTHERLY JET CORE AHEAD OF MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...AND SURFACE HEATING MAY CONTRIBUTE TO NARROW CORRIDOR OF WEAK TO MODERATE DESTABILIZATION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AS MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION NEAR TROUGH AXIS OVERSPREADS HEATED BOUNDARY LAYER...DEVELOPMENT OF AT LEAST WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS POSSIBLE. ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE... PERHAPS SOME SMALL HAIL AS WELL. ..KERR.. 07/27/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 28 07:46:35 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 28 Jul 2004 02:46:35 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200407280746.i6S7k2X25886@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 280743 SWODY2 SPC AC 280742 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0242 AM CDT WED JUL 28 2004 VALID 291200Z - 301200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E RTN 20 S ALS 30 ENE ASE 15 SSE RIW 45 ESE WRL 35 NE DGW 30 SW SNY 25 NW EHA 30 E RTN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 N ANJ 35 SSE CGX 35 SW TBN 30 N LIT 10 E GLH 35 E TUP 35 E LUK PSB 10 SSW JFK ...CONT... 40 WSW FHU 15 SE GUP 45 SE CNY 30 ENE ELY 30 N OWY 25 NW 27U 30 SW BIL 15 E RAP 15 N FSD 20 SE EAU 20 SE CMX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE PSM 35 NE EFK. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF CO AND WY... ...SYNOPSIS... BROAD UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM S CNTRL CANADA SWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS WILL MIGRATE VERY SLOWLY E WHILE AMPLIFYING SWD AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATE THROUGH THIS FEATURE. COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM NRN ND SWWD THROUGH WRN NEB WILL CONTINUE E AND SWD AS A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER MT MOVES THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY EARLY THURSDAY. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD EXTEND FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SWWD THROUGH SRN KS OR NRN OK. A WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME WILL DEVELOP IN WAKE OF THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS ERN CO. ...CO AND WY... WEAK SELY UPSLOPE FLOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS ERN CO AND SE WY IN WAKE OF SURFACE FRONT AS IT SETTLES INTO KS. THIS WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS GIVEN DIFFUSE MOISTURE GRADIENT PRESENT IN FRONTAL ZONE. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM CNTRL/ERN CO INTO SE WY. THE COMBINATION OF OROGRAPHIC FORCING AND ANY DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THE NWLY FLOW REGIME WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE OVER THE CNTRL ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS AS UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE NRN PLAINS WITH 30-35 KT AT 6 KM. THIS WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THE PRIMARY THREATS. ACTIVITY MAY SPREAD EWD THROUGH ERN CO DURING THE EVENING. SEVERE THREAT FARTHER EAST INTO KS SHOULD BE LIMITED BY RELATIVELY COOL LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES FROM AIR THAT WILL HAVE BEEN STABILIZED BY EARLIER FRONTAL CONVECTION. ..DIAL.. 07/28/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 29 08:09:30 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 29 Jul 2004 03:09:30 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200407290808.i6T88vX13064@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 290806 SWODY2 SPC AC 290805 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0305 AM CDT THU JUL 29 2004 VALID 301200Z - 311200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N GRB 20 ESE VOK 35 SE FOD 30 SSE SPW 25 WNW FRM 25 NNW MSP 40 SSW DLH 30 S IWD 40 N GRB. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSE RTN 10 WNW TAD 40 WNW COS 30 ENE DEN 25 SSE AKO 45 WNW GCK 25 SE LBL 20 ESE DHT 50 SSE RTN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 E DUG 25 NNW 4SL 15 SW EGE 30 NE LAR 30 WSW VTN 10 NNE ATY 25 ENE INL ...CONT... 50 WNW 3B1 10 ESE PWM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS WILL MIGRATE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH FRIDAY AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATE THROUGH THIS FEATURE. A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SASKATCHEWAN IS FORECAST TO MOVE SEWD INTO BASE OF THE TROUGH AND CONTINUE EWD THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAK SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM A SURFACE LOW IN WI SWWD THROUGH NRN KS AND INTO NERN CO. ...UPPER MS VALLEY AND WRN PARTS OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES... WRN PORTIONS OF COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY THURSDAY WILL STALL AND BEGIN RETREATING NWD AS A WARM FRONT LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT FALLS AND CYCLOGENESIS ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS WILL ALLOW RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S TO ADVECT NWD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY AHEAD OF SECONDARY COLD FRONT ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. STORMS MAY BE IN PROGRESS FRIDAY MORNING FROM PARTS OF THE ERN DAKOTAS INTO WRN MN WITHIN ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. ATMOSPHERE DOWNSTREAM FROM THE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO DESTABILIZE AS MOISTURE RETURNS NWD WITH RETREATING WARM FRONT. MODEST LAPSE RATES AND POTENTIAL FOR CLOUDS TO PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON MAY LIMIT OVERALL MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY...WITH MLCAPE FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG POSSIBLE. STORMS MAY INTENSIFY AS THEY MOVE EWD AND THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES DURING THE AFTERNOON. 30-40 KT MID LEVEL FLOW ON SRN PERIPHERY OF UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO 30-40 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR...SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS. STRONGEST LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS EXPECTED IN VICINITY OF THE RETREATING WARM FRONT. PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND...HOWEVER AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS MOVING ALONG AND INTERACTING WITH THE ENHANCED SHEAR ALONG THE WARM FRONT. ...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS... WEAK ELY UPSLOPE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST UNDERNEATH 30 KT NWLY FLOW ALOFT OVER CO. OROGRAPHIC FORCING AUGMENTED BY SURFACE HEATING SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF AT LEAST WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ACTIVITY WILL SUBSEQUENTLY MOVE SEWD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS WHERE SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD HELP MAINTAIN SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WITHIN THE EXPECTED DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. MLCAPE FROM 1000 J/KG WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM ERN CO/NE NM INTO WRN KS AND THE TX PANHANDLE. THE 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 35 TO 40 KT WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL THE MAIN THREATS THROUGH MID EVENING. POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTOR FOR MORE THAN ISOLATED ACTIVITY COULD BE TENDENCY FOR RIDGE TO BUILD AS UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EWD TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AREA. ...PART OF MID MS THROUGH LOWER OH VALLEY... SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE OK/TX AREA WILL LIFT NEWD INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY FRIDAY. LOW LEVEL JET ACCOMPANYING THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES. POTENTIAL FOR STORMS ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO ROTATE MAY CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER...WITH TIME THIS WILL LIFT AWAY FROM THE RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WITH POOR LAPSE RATES EXPECTED...SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED BY MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES. ..DIAL.. 07/29/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 29 17:19:58 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 29 Jul 2004 12:19:58 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200407291719.i6THJLD07457@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 291717 SWODY2 SPC AC 291716 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1216 PM CDT THU JUL 29 2004 VALID 301200Z - 311200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W FOD 35 WSW SPW 30 WSW RWF 45 W DLH 45 ENE DLH 10 SE IWD 20 NW AUW 20 NNW ALO 15 SE FOD 40 W FOD. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W DHT 30 SSE RTN 40 E ALS 30 WSW COS 20 SE DEN 25 SSE AKO 30 SSW GLD 45 W GCK 35 S EHA 25 W DHT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 E DUG 45 NW 4SL 15 NW ASE 10 SSW LAR 40 WNW VTN 35 W ATY 10 ENE INL ...CONT... 50 WNW 3B1 10 ESE PWM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SE MN...NRN IA AND NW WI... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS... ...SE MN/NRN IA/NWRN WI... AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL SHIFT SLOWLY SEWD INTO MN ON DAY 2. THIS WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT LARGE-SCALE SUPPORT FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ON FRIDAY. THE MAIN FOCUS FOR STORMS WILL LIKELY BE WITH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC LOW THAT MOVES ACROSS SERN MN INTO NWRN WI DURING THE AFTERNOON. 21Z FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR FRIDAY IN THIS AREA SHOW MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG WITH ABOUT 35 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. THIS COMBINATION SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR MULTICELLS. 500 MB TEMPS OF -12 TO -14C AND LAPSE RATES OF 6.5 TO 7.0 C/KM WILL FAVOR ISOLATED HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS. THE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS CNTRL MN AND NW IA MOVING EWD INTO NCNTRL IA AND NWRN WI BY EARLY EVENING. THE BEST THREAT OF SEVERE SHOULD BE CONCENTRATED NEAR PEAK HEATING. ...SRN HIGH PLAINS... A MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER SERN ID AND WRN WY AS SEEN IN THE OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS FIELDS...WILL MOVE SEWD OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD BE POSITIONED ACROSS ERN CO AND WRN KS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE MAY PROVIDE ADEQUATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR SEVERE STORMS ON DAY 2 ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. THE MOUNTAINS WILL PROVIDE LIFT NECESSARY FOR STORM FORMATION BY MIDDAY AND THIS CONVECTION SHOULD SPREAD SLOWLY SEWD ACROSS SE CO AND FAR NE NM DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. ONE ISSUE THAT COULD BE PROBLEMATIC FOR SEVERE STORM FORMATION WILL BE THE FORECAST INSTABILITY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR SE CO AND FAR NE NM SHOW LESS THAN 500 J/KG OF MLCAPE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE BETTER INSTABILITY WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGHER SFC DEWPOINTS ACROSS SW KS AND THE NE TX PANHANDLE. HOWEVER...A SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE POSSIBLE IF THE 35 TO 40 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR MATERIALIZES. THIS COMBINED WITH THE STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WOULD PROMOTE A HAIL THREAT WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS. LCL HEIGHTS ABOVE 700 MB WOULD RESULT IN HIGH BASED STORMS WHICH COULD ALSO HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE NEAR PEAK HEATING. ...LOWER OH VALLEY... AN MCS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ACROSS MO AT THE BEGINNING OF DAY 2 ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN ERN KS AND WRN MO. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES NEWD INTO IL...STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY SPREAD NEWD ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY DURING THE DAY. ALTHOUGH SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE WEAK ACROSS SE MO...SRN IL AND SRN IND...HIGH SFC DEWPOINTS...MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT MAY PROMOTE A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT NEAR PEAK HEATING. UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES SHOULD RESULT IN MULTICELLS WITH A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS. ..BROYLES.. 07/29/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 30 07:37:35 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 30 Jul 2004 02:37:35 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200407300736.i6U7asD21921@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 300734 SWODY2 SPC AC 300733 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0233 AM CDT FRI JUL 30 2004 VALID 311200Z - 011200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE INL 10 ENE STC 30 SSE RWF 15 N SUX 45 NNE BUB 45 NW VTN 55 WSW MBG 70 NNE DVL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SW TUS 45 E PHX 40 SW GUP 45 SSE MTJ 20 WSW CAG 15 E OGD 15 N BAM 15 SE LOL 65 NW BIH 40 ENE SCK 15 ESE RBL 40 W MHS 60 SE EUG 30 E PDT 35 NE PUW 80 ENE 63S ...CONT... 35 NW LRD 20 N CLL 35 SSW MEM 30 NW SDF 25 SE FWA 15 SE JXN 30 W MBS 10 S MBL 30 SSE OSH 25 ESE OTM 35 N CNU 25 S P28 30 WNW PVW 30 SW ELP. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR THE ERN DAKOTAS AND WRN MN.... ...SYNOPSIS... HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY RISE OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS AS A MID LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE SRN/CENTRAL ROCKIES...AND A TROUGH OVER THE MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES FILLS AND LIFTS NEWD. THE MAIN BELT OF WLYS WILL BE LOCATED FROM THE PRAIRIE PROVINCES EWD OVER THE NRN TIER OF STATES TO QUEBEC AND NRN NEW ENGLAND...WITHIN WHICH A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER SRN SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK TROUGH WILL ACCOMPANY THE DE-AMPLIFYING GREAT LAKES MID LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE OH VALLEY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. A FEW STORMS WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR FROM THE UPPER OH VALLEY TO INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND WHERE MODEST/UNIDIRECTIONAL LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED...BUT POOR LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY AND THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT THIS AREA. A SOMEWHAT GREATER THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS AND MN AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ...ERN DAKOTAS/MN... BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NWD ACROSS THE PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO LEE TROUGHING...BUT THE MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE GULF COAST AND ERN STATES. HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE ENHANCED BY EVAPOTRANSPIRATION FROM NEB NEWD TO MN...WHERE MID-UPPER 60 DEWPOINTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE MAIN CONCERNS FOR THIS AREA WILL BE STORM COVERAGE GIVEN THE TENDENCY FOR HEIGHT RISES OVER THE PLAINS...AND A HORIZONTAL DECOUPLING OF THE STRONGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT /CLOSER TO THE CANADIAN BORDER/ AND THE STRONGER INSTABILITY FARTHER TO THE SW. STILL...THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING MOISTURE ...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND 30-50 KT WNWLY MID LEVEL FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ..THOMPSON.. 07/30/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 30 17:05:51 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 30 Jul 2004 12:05:51 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200407301705.i6UH5AD14077@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 301703 SWODY2 SPC AC 301701 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1201 PM CDT FRI JUL 30 2004 VALID 311200Z - 011200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 W RRT 30 SE STC 25 S MKT 15 NW SUX 65 ENE ANW 55 N OLF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW LRD SHV 50 WSW OWB 35 ESE IND 15 SE JXN 30 W MBS MBL 30 SSE OSH 15 ENE EMP 35 WNW PVW 10 S ELP ...CONT... 70 WSW TUS 45 SW GUP 35 SSE MTJ 40 SSW CAG 40 NE VEL 30 N ENV 20 W BAM 25 SSE NFL 55 SSE TVL 20 NE SCK 30 NW RBL 20 ENE MFR 30 ENE RDM 30 N PUW 85 WNW FCA. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS... ...NRN PLAINS... AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE NRN PLAINS WILL MOVE EWD TONIGHT AS NWLY FLOW BECOMES ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS WRN CANADA IS FORECAST TO DIVE SEWD TONIGHT SPREADING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY AFTERNOON. AS HEIGHTS FALL...A SFC LOW SHOULD DEVELOP IN ND WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING WWD INTO MT AND A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD ACROSS MN. THESE BOUNDARIES WILL FOCUS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON ACROSS ND AND CNTRL SD. THE STORMS WILL SLOWLY SPREAD SEWD REACHING WRN MN BY THE EVENING HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY WILL BE ACROSS ERN SD AND SWRN MN SOUTH OF THE SFC LOW AND WARM FRONT. WITH SFC DEWPOINT IN THE 60S F...MLCAPE VALUES WILL LIKELY REACH 2000 J/KG ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS. IN ADDITION...DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES SHOULD RANGE FROM 50 KT ACROSS ND TO ABOUT 35 KT ACROSS SW MN WHICH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. THE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7.0 TO 8.0 C/KM WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS. WIND DAMAGE WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT MAY ALSO EXIST ESPECIALLY WITH STRONG CELLS THAT TRACK SEWD ALONG PREEXISTING BOUNDARIES. ...NORTHEAST US... AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...REACHING FAR WRN NY AND ERN OH BY SATURDAY EVENING. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ACROSS NY AND PA AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH WEAK INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT BY AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 25 TO 30 KT AND THIS COMBINED WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES WILL FAVOR MULTICELLULAR CONVECTIVE LINES. THE RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL...HOWEVER...THE WIND PROFILES AND SHEAR MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT NEAR PEAK HEATING. ..BROYLES.. 07/30/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 31 07:35:00 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 31 Jul 2004 02:35:00 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200407310734.i6V7YGD05204@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 310730 SWODY2 SPC AC 310729 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0229 AM CDT SAT JUL 31 2004 VALID 011200Z - 021200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM OSC 10 WSW MKG 30 SE DBQ 45 SW ALO 30 SSE SPW 50 WNW RWF 30 WNW AXN 45 NW BRD 35 SW HIB 15 ESE DLH 15 NE IWD 20 S CMX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SW GBN 35 NNW IGM 20 SE TPH 65 ENE MER 45 W TVL 40 E RBL 40 SW MHS 40 E CEC 30 NW MFR 45 E EUG 45 W PDT 40 NNW ALW 45 NNE 63S ...CONT... 25 S DTW 35 NNE LAF DEC 25 S UIN 15 NW FLV 15 NNE SLN 45 ENE DDC 25 ENE EHA 35 SSE RTN 20 NE ONM 30 SSW DMN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NW DRT 50 ESE JCT 35 NNE CLL 35 SSE SHV 45 NW JAN 25 SSW HSV 40 WSW BLF 25 NW CXY 40 ENE UCA 40 NE PBG. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY.... ...SYNOPSIS... FLOW REGIME OVER THE CONUS WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A CLOSED HIGH OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS AND A BELT OF 40-50 KT MID LEVEL WLYS NEAR THE US/CANADIAN BORDER. THE LAST VESTIGES OF THE SYSTEM NOW OVER THE OH VALLEY WILL LIFT NEWD OVER NRN NEW ENGLAND...PROVIDING A THREAT FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE ASSOCIATED TRAILING SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND GULF COAST STATES. FARTHER W...LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM AZ NWD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN...TO THE E OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER NRN CA. THE GENERAL PATTERN ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN SUGGESTS SOME CONCERN FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH LARGELY DRY THUNDERSTORMS IN INVERTED-V PROFILES WITH 30 KT MID LEVEL FLOW...THOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD STILL BE QUITE WEAK. LASTLY...A MORE SIGNIFICANT THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED INVOF A WEAK SURFACE FRONT FROM ERN MT ACROSS THE DAKOTAS/MN/WI/UPPER MI...NEAR THE SRN FRINGE OF THE STRONGER MID LEVEL WLY/NWLY FLOW. ...UPPER MS VALLEY AREA... THE MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS IS NOW CONFINED TO AREAS FROM TX TO OH AND EWD. HOWEVER...NWD MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE SRN PLAINS AND EVAPOTRANSPIRATION THE NEXT TWO DAYS...BENEATH A PLUME OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WILL RESULT IN SUBSTANTIAL DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY REGION. MLCAPE VALUES MAY EXCEED 3000 J/KG DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM ERN NEB TO CENTRAL MN...THOUGH MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR MAY BE CAPPED BY THE WARM ELEVATED MIXED LAYER PLUME. THEREFORE...EXPECT THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT AREAS TO BE FOCUSED ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY...INVOF THE WEAK SURFACE FRONT. THERE WILL BE SOME POSSIBILITY FOR CONVECTION FROM LATE IN THE DAY 1 PERIOD TO PERSIST AND INTENSIFY WHILE DEVELOPING EWD/SEWD ACROSS MN DURING THE DAY. IF THIS SCENARIO OCCURS...THEN A FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS WITH CONCENTRATED DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS WRN UPPER MI/NRN WI/CENTRAL MN. A FEED OF STRONG INSTABILITY FROM THE S AND 30-40 KT WNWLY MID LEVEL FLOW SUPPORT A SUPERCELL THREAT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO. STORMS COULD THEN GROW UPSCALE INTO AN MCS WITH DAMAGING WINDS BECOMING THE MAIN THREAT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. ...ERN MT INTO NRN SD/ND... A WEAK SURFACE FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL ALONG A NW-SE AXIS FROM ERN MT INTO SD. THOUGH L0W-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED THIS AREA...LOW-LEVEL ASCENT ALONG THE FRONT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES MAY ALLOW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. DEEP LAYER WIND PROFILES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...AND ANY PERSISTENT STORMS MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS DESPITE THE RELATIVE WEAK INSTABILITY. STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP OVER ND SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL WAA INCREASES...BUT LIMITED MOISTURE SUGGESTS THAT ONLY L0W SEVERE PROBABILITIES ARE WARRANTED. ...NW KS TO SE SD AREA... THE BACKGROUND PATTERN DOES NOT APPEAR PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH THE CLOSED MID LEVEL LOCATED IMMEDIATELY SW OF THIS AREA. HOWEVER...A REMNANT NE-SW ORIENTED LEE TROUGH AND STRONG SURFACE HEATING/DEEP MIXING MAY ALLOW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. ANY STORMS THAT FORM WILL TEND TO BE HIGH BASED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG OUTFLOW GUSTS. ADDITIONALLY...DEEP LAYER WIND PROFILES MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. ..THOMPSON.. 07/31/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 31 17:35:35 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 31 Jul 2004 12:35:35 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200407311734.i6VHYpD17470@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 311732 SWODY2 SPC AC 311731 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1231 PM CDT SAT JUL 31 2004 VALID 011200Z - 021200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ANJ 15 NW PIA 15 W UIN 30 SSW IRK 35 NNE STJ PIR 20 S P24 15 W DVL FAR AXN DLH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW YUM 35 NNE BLH 40 SSW DRA TPH 50 NNE WMC 50 ESE MHS 55 SSE RBL 35 NW UKI CEC EUG PDT 3TH 55 NNW FCA ...CONT... 15 NNE MBS BEH DEC BLV SGF ICT 50 WSW RSL GCK CAO 20 WSW 4CR 40 W ELP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NW DRT TYR 25 NE GLH MSL JKL DUJ SYR 30 ENE MSS. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS OF THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY REGION... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER TROUGH...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...IS FORECAST TO LIFT NEWD INTO NEW ENGLAND...IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE SRN CANADIAN PROVINCES. LARGE HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL COVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE NATION AND INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES....WHILE A BAND OF 40-50 KT MID LEVEL WLY WINDS WILL PERSIST FROM THE NRN ROCKIES/PLAINS EWD INTO NEW ENGLAND. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THE UPPER TROUGH THROUGH NEW ENGLAND....WHILE A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL STRETCH FROM MT SEWD INTO SD AND THEN EWD ACROSS SRN MN/WI. ...UPPER MS VALLEY AREA... SURFACE LOW PRESSURE....EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALONG THE FRONT IN THE SD AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WILL AID IN ADVECTING LOWER 70 DEWPOINTS FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE REGION BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOIST PLUS EVAPOTRANSPIRATION...BENEATH A PLUME OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WILL RESULT IN SUBSTANTIAL DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE REGION. MLCAPE VALUES ARE LIKELY TO APPROACH 4000 J/KG FROM ERN NEB/SD INTO SRN MN/NRN IA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE WLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND A CAPPING INVERSION. THIS CAP SHOULD WEAKEN NEAR THE FRONT AS INCREASING DIFFLUENCE/DIVERGENCE ALOFT INCREASES THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE... WITH STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND 40 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS DURING THE STORMS INITIAL DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...THE 40 KT MID LEVEL FLOW...STRONG INSTABILITY AND BOUNDARY ARE FAVORABLE FOR STORMS TO EVOLVE INTO A FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS WITH CONCENTRATED DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE ...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SRN MN/NRN IA AND SRN WI SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECT ENOUGH REPORTS FOR MODERATE RISK...BUT MODELS VARIANCE IN LOCATION AND TIMING OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION FROM PREVIOUS MODEL PRECLUDES THE HIGHER RISK ATTM. ...SD/ND... THOUGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL BE LOWER THAN ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY...STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT MUCAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG...WITH THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY IN NERN SD. A WEAK IMPULSE IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW AND ENSEMBLES SUPPORT ELEVATED STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. DEEP LAYER WIND PROFILES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...BUT STABLE BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE FRONT SUGGESTS THAT HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. ...CENTRAL AND ERN KS/NEB EWD INTO MO... STRONG INSTABILITY AND STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL NWLY FLOW AT 20 TO 30 KT WILL PROVIDE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ROTATING STORMS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE AREA REMAINS STRONGLY CAPPED...BUT GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED CONDITIONS AND WEAK COLD ADVECTION AT 500 MB...A 5% PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE IS FORECAST SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP. ...NERN U.S... MODELS FORECAST 30 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH MLCAPES FROM 1000-1500 J/KG...SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER..150-200 NM EXTENSIVE CLOUD BAND CURRENTLY EXTENDS ALONG AND AHEAD OF FRONT ACROSS NY/PA AND THE OH VALLEY...AND SUSPECT THESE CLOUDS WILL LIMIT THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. ...GREAT BASIN... MID LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD GRADUALLY SPREAD FROM AZ NWD INTO THE REGION. DESPITE MARGINAL INSTABILITY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MOIST SOUNDINGS FROM 550 MB-300 MB...WHICH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. LARGE INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS BELOW THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND 30 KT MID LEVEL FLOW INDICATE A THREAT OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS. ..IMY.. 07/31/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 31 17:41:31 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 31 Jul 2004 12:41:31 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200407311740.i6VHekD19353@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 311738 SWODY2 SPC AC 311737 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1237 PM CDT SAT JUL 31 2004 VALID 011200Z - 021200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ANJ 15 NW PIA 15 W UIN 30 SSW IRK 35 NNE STJ PIR 20 S P24 15 W DVL FAR AXN DLH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW YUM 35 NNE BLH 40 SSW DRA TPH 50 NNE WMC 50 ESE MHS 55 SSE RBL 35 NW UKI CEC EUG PDT 3TH 55 NNW FCA ...CONT... 15 NNE MBS BEH DEC BLV SGF ICT 50 WSW RSL GCK CAO 20 WSW 4CR 40 W ELP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NW DRT TYR 25 NE GLH MSL JKL DUJ SYR 30 ENE MSS. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY REGION... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER TROUGH...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...IS FORECAST TO LIFT NEWD INTO NEW ENGLAND...IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE SRN CANADIAN PROVINCES. LARGE HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL COVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE NATION AND INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES....WHILE A BAND OF 40-50 KT MID LEVEL WLY WINDS WILL PERSIST FROM THE NRN ROCKIES/PLAINS EWD INTO NEW ENGLAND. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THE UPPER TROUGH THROUGH NEW ENGLAND....WHILE A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL STRETCH FROM MT SEWD INTO SD AND THEN EWD ACROSS SRN MN/WI. ...UPPER MS VALLEY AREA... SURFACE LOW PRESSURE....EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALONG THE FRONT IN THE SD AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WILL AID IN ADVECTING LOWER 70 DEWPOINTS FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE REGION BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOIST PLUS EVAPOTRANSPIRATION...BENEATH A PLUME OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WILL RESULT IN SUBSTANTIAL DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE REGION. MLCAPE VALUES ARE LIKELY TO APPROACH 4000 J/KG FROM ERN NEB/SD INTO SRN MN/NRN IA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE WLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND A CAPPING INVERSION. THIS CAP SHOULD WEAKEN NEAR THE FRONT AS INCREASING DIFFLUENCE/DIVERGENCE ALOFT INCREASES THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE... WITH STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND 40 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS DURING THE STORMS INITIAL DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...THE 40 KT MID LEVEL FLOW...STRONG INSTABILITY AND BOUNDARY ARE FAVORABLE FOR STORMS TO EVOLVE INTO A FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS WITH CONCENTRATED DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE ...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SRN MN/NRN IA AND SRN WI SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECT ENOUGH REPORTS FOR MODERATE RISK...BUT MODELS VARIANCE IN LOCATION AND TIMING OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION FROM PREVIOUS MODEL PRECLUDES THE HIGHER RISK ATTM. ...SD/ND... THOUGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL BE LOWER THAN ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY...STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT MUCAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG...WITH THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY IN NERN SD. A WEAK IMPULSE IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW AND ENSEMBLES SUPPORT ELEVATED STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. DEEP LAYER WIND PROFILES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...BUT STABLE BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE FRONT SUGGESTS THAT HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. ...CENTRAL AND ERN KS/NEB EWD INTO MO... STRONG INSTABILITY AND STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL NWLY FLOW AT 20 TO 30 KT WILL PROVIDE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ROTATING STORMS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE AREA REMAINS STRONGLY CAPPED...BUT GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED CONDITIONS AND WEAK COLD ADVECTION AT 500 MB...A 5% PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE IS FORECAST SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP. ...NERN U.S... MODELS FORECAST 30 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH MLCAPES FROM 1000-1500 J/KG...SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER..150-200 NM EXTENSIVE CLOUD BAND CURRENTLY EXTENDS ALONG AND AHEAD OF FRONT ACROSS NY/PA AND THE OH VALLEY...AND SUSPECT THESE CLOUDS WILL LIMIT THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. ...GREAT BASIN... MID LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD GRADUALLY SPREAD FROM AZ NWD INTO THE REGION. DESPITE MARGINAL INSTABILITY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MOIST SOUNDINGS FROM 550 MB-300 MB...WHICH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. LARGE INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS BELOW THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND 30 KT MID LEVEL FLOW INDICATE A THREAT OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS. ..IMY.. 07/31/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.