[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 311719
SWODY2
SPC AC 311718

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1118 AM CST FRI DEC 31 2004

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW CLM 25 E AST
25 SW EUG 10 NW CEC.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E PSX 35 WSW LFK
DAL 10 WSW OLU 25 SSW RWF 35 E MKT 15 NE DBQ MTO 20 W EVV MKL GWO 30
E MCB 35 SE HUM.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT FROM PERSISTENT PAC NW UPPER LOW
TODAY...TRAVELING FROM CA TO THE UPPER MS VLY BY 12Z/2.  A WEAKER
SUBTROPICAL JET STREAK WILL MOVE FROM BAJA NEWD TOWARD THE WRN GULF
BASIN BY LATE SATURDAY.  IN THE LOWER LEVELS...LEE CO LOW WILL
INTENSIFY SATURDAY AND MOVE NEWD TOWARD WI.  ATTENDANT LEE TROUGH
WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE PLAINS WHILE A COLD FRONT MOVES SEWD TOWARD
IA/KS.

...ERN PLAINS TO UPPER MS VLY...
MOIST SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH/SURFACE LOW
WILL REINFORCE THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS THE
ERN PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY.  TSTM PROBABILITIES WILL INCREASE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT FROM ERN OK-ERN KS-WRN MO-SRN IA AS THE
LEE-TROUGH/LOW/60 METER PER 12 HOUR H5 HEIGHT FALLS APPROACH. 
AFTERNOON WARM SECTOR MAY REMAIN CAPPED...DEPENDING ON MAGNITUDE OF
HEATING.  MORE LIKELY SCENARIO WILL BE FOR NOCTURNAL ELEVATED TSTMS
TO DEVELOP ALONG LLJ AXIS FROM THE OZARKS NEWD INTO THE UPPER MS
VLY.  INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED AND PRIND THAT WIDESPREAD
ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS WILL NOT OCCUR DESPITE FAVORABLY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT.

...WRN GULF COASTAL AREA...
AS THE SUBTROPICAL JETLET APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT...CONVECTIVE
THREAT WILL INCREASE ALONG THE WRN GULF COASTAL AREA VERY LATE
SATURDAY.  THESE TSTMS COULD BE MORE SURFACE BASED THAN FARTHER N. 
MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS WILL BE THE RATHER POOR
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXPECTED THAT WILL MITIGATE THE OVERALL
INSTABILITY.

...PAC COAST...
PERSISTENT ONSHORE PACIFIC BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BENEATH STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITHIN CYCLONIC SIDE OF UPPER JET AXIS WILL
MAINTAIN ISOLD THUNDER THREAT ACROSS THE WA/OR/NRN CA COAST ON
SATURDAY.  HIGHEST POTENTIAL WILL EXIST OVER THE OFFSHORE COASTAL
ZONES.

..RACY.. 12/31/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.