[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 280615
SWODY2
SPC AC 280614

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1214 AM CST TUE DEC 28 2004

VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 N MRY 40 W BFL 10
E EDW 15 NNW LAS 50 S SGU 20 WNW FLG 30 SSW SOW 20 SW SAD 25 SE FHU.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WSW ALO 50 SSW LSE
25 ESE MSN 10 SE CGX 15 NNE DNV 35 NE ALN 35 NE COU 15 ENE P35 40
WSW ALO.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW /CURRENTLY NEAR 36N/127W/ IS FORECAST TO OPEN
AND EJECT NEWD INTO THE NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY 2
PERIOD. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODEL
FORECASTS CONTINUE TO SHOW VARYING SOLUTIONS WITH REGARD TO THE
INTENSITY AND TRACK OF ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW. LATEST ENSEMBLE MEAN 
INDICATES SURFACE LOW OVER N-CNTRL NEB BY 30/12Z WHICH STILL APPEARS
TO BE A REASONABLE COMPROMISE ATTM...WITH WARM FRONT STRETCHING EWD
INTO THE NRN OH VALLEY AND TRAILING COLD FRONT SWWD INTO THE SRN
HIGH PLAINS.

...SRN CA INTO AZ...
LARGE-SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH EJECTING UPPER TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING...SUPPORTING
SHOWERY PRECIPITATION ALONG AND BEHIND PACIFIC COLD FRONT. WHILE
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL TEND TO LIMIT INSTABILITY...THE
DYNAMIC FORCING IN CONJUNCTION WITH MODESTLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES /I.E. APPROACHING 7 C/KM/ SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO POCKETS OF WEAK
INSTABILITY AND POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT.

...UPPER MIDWEST...
DESPITE LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF SURFACE
LOW...PERSISTENT WAA AND INCREASINGLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL RESULT IN SOME AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION LATE IN THE PERIOD
ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN IA INTO IL. HERE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY FOR PARCELS
BASED AROUND 850-860 MB. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
WAA REGIME ALONG NOSE OF SWLY 50-6O KT LLJ AXIS...POTENTIAL WILL
EXIST FOR ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT.

..MEAD.. 12/28/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.