[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 191729
SWODY2
SPC AC 191728

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1128 AM CST SUN DEC 19 2004

VALID 201200Z - 211200Z.

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
CURRENT WV IMAGERY SHOWED PACIFIC TROUGH BREAKING DOWN THE UPPER
RIDGE...THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE ACROSS WRN CANADA INTO THE PAC NW. 
THIS TROUGH WILL TRACK ESEWD ON MONDAY TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES/OH
VALLEY REGION...AS HEIGHTS RISE UPSTREAM OVER THE NERN PACIFIC TO
SERN AK.  THIS BUILDING RIDGE WILL ALLOW A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS TO MOVE SSEWD OVER THE GREAT BASIN/ROCKIES...CARVING OUT A
BROAD TROUGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS BY 12Z TUESDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEAD UPPER TROUGH WILL
TRACK FROM SRN MANITOBA TO LAKE SUPERIOR THIS PERIOD WITH A COLD
FRONT MOVING E/SE ACROSS THE MS VALLEY/PLAINS STATES.  THIS FRONT
SHOULD REACH A LINE FROM LM SSWWD TO THE OZARKS TO FAR NRN TX BY 12Z
TUESDAY.

SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE FAR WRN GULF ON
MONDAY AS HEIGHTS FALL IN ADVANCE OF THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH.  THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS THE COASTAL AREA OF TX
AND NEWD INTO ERN TX/LOWER MS VALLEY IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT. 
THE QUALITY OF THIS MOISTURE RETURN IS EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT
MEAGER GIVEN THE RECENT INTRUSIONS OF CP AIR MASSES DEEP INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO BASIN.  THE ETA APPEARS TO BE TOO AGGRESSIVE SHOWING
SURFACE DEWPOINTS AROUND 60 TO THE SRN/CENTRAL TX COAST BY 12Z
TUESDAY.  DESPITE A PLUME OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SPREADING
ESEWD OVER THIS AREA...INCREASING TEMPERATURES IN THE 800-600 MB
LAYER WILL EFFECTIVELY CAP THE LOW-LEVEL DESTABILIZATION WHICH WILL
BE MARKED BY LOWER 50S SURFACE DEWPOINTS REACHING THE TX COAST/SRN
LA.

..PETERS.. 12/19/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.