[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 181729
SWODY2
SPC AC 181728

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1128 AM CST SAT DEC 18 2004

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z.

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE ERN U.S. WILL DEEPEN AS A PORTION OF
THE ARCTIC VORTEX...WHICH WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE WRN GREAT LAKES
REGION TODAY...IS EXPECTED TO DIG SEWD OVER THE TN VALLEY TO
CAROLINAS BY 12Z MONDAY.  THIS UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS
TO SHIFT EWD AS UPSTREAM PACIFIC TROUGH BREAKS DOWN RIDGE LOCATED
ACROSS WRN NORTH AMERICA.  

...GREAT LAKES...
A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE BEGINNING OF DAY 2
ALONG/DOWNWIND OF LAKE MI FROM WRN LOWER MI INTO NWRN IND WHERE
CONVECTIVE SNOW BANDS SHOULD STILL BE DEEP ENOUGH FOR LIGHTNING
PRODUCTION.  HOWEVER...THIS THREAT WILL BE SHORT-LIVED.  SHORT WAVE
RIDGING ACROSS WRN GREAT LAKES IN WAKE OF ARCTIC TROUGH WILL RESULT
IN RISING HEIGHTS/DECREASING BOUNDARY LAYER DEPTH FOR CONVECTIVE
SNOW BAND POTENTIAL IN LEE OF LS/LM.  COLD AIR ADVECTION PER NLY
WINDS DEVELOPING FROM THE SFC-700 MB ACROSS LH/LE IN THE WAKE OF
ARCTIC SURFACE FRONT WILL SUPPORT INCREASING SNOW BAND THREAT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CLOUD DEPTH MAY BE
DEEP ENOUGH FOR A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO...BUT OVERALL THREAT/AREAL
COVERAGE DOES NOT WARRANT A TSTM OUTLOOK.

...MID ATLANTIC REGION...
ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE E/SE ACROSS THE ERN STATES
SUNDAY AND OFF THE ERN SEABOARD LATE SUNDAY.  STRONG HEIGHT FALLS
ALONG/OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ASSOCIATED WITH DEEPENING UPPER
TROUGH WILL INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS OFFSHORE BY LATE DAY 2.  INCREASED
UVVS IN THIS REGION COMBINED WITH COLD AIR SPREADING EWD ATOP
RELATIVELY WARMER ATLANTIC WATERS SHOULD SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM THREAT
OFFSHORE.

..PETERS.. 12/18/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.