[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 101729
SWODY2
SPC AC 101728

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1128 AM CST FRI DEC 10 2004

VALID 111200Z - 121200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW ILM FLO 30 SSE
CLT 15 ENE GSO 45 SSE CHO 25 SSE DCA 25 E SBY.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE COLD UPPER TROUGH...NOW MOVING INTO THE ERN STATES...
WILL MOVE EWD AND EXTEND FROM NEW ENGLAND TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
BY 12Z SUNDAY...AS STRONG WNWLY FLOW ALOFT ACCOMPANYING NEXT PACIFIC
TROUGH TRACKS TOWARD THE NORTH CENTRAL STATES. AT THE SURFACE...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW PRIMARY COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW
PRESSURE MOVING NEWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WILL ALREADY BE OFF MUCH OF
THE EAST COAST AND EXTEND SWWD TO SRN FL AT THE START OF THE PERIOD.


...MID ATLANTIC STATES...
SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD ACROSS NY/PA AND THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD.  LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE WEAK GIVEN WLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW.  ALTHOUGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE LOWER
40S...SUFFICIENT SURFACE HEATING BENEATH COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES
WILL STEEPEN LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SUPPORT MUCAPE AOB 150
J/KG.  DESPITE WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE...THIS IS EXPECTED TO PROVE
FAVORABLE FOR LOW-TOPPED STORMS FROM NC TO SRN DELMARVA FROM LATE
SATURDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT
MOVES EWD ACROSS THIS REGION.  40-60 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG FLOW ON ERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER TROUGH WILL
ALLOW FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS. HAIL WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT
WITH THESE STORMS DUE TO LOW FREEZING LEVELS.  HOWEVER...GIVEN SUCH
COLD THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES...FORECAST SOUNDINGS/LOCAL HAIL MODEL
INDICATE ANY HAIL SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LEVELS.

..PETERS.. 12/10/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.