[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 031614
SWODY2
SPC AC 031613

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1013 AM CST FRI DEC 03 2004

VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSE CVS 30 ESE AMA
40 W END 20 SE TUL 35 W PGO 30 S DUA 20 NW BWD 35 WNW SJT 30 NNE FST
30 SW HOB 50 SSE CVS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW BPT 50 WSW POE
45 N POE 35 SE MLU 10 WSW JAN LUL 30 SSW MOB.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
WITH APPROACH OF VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY NEAR
45N/155W...MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW OFF THE CA COAST IS FORECAST TO OPEN
AND EJECT EWD INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS BY SUNDAY MORNING. AT THE
SURFACE...CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WITH
ATTENDANT LEE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT SWD INTO WRN TX. MEANWHILE...
FARTHER TO THE SE...MARINE BAROCLINIC ZONE/WARM FRONT WILL RETREAT
NWD ONTO THE WRN/CNTRL GULF COAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

...SRN PLAINS INTO THE CNTRL GULF COAST...
CURRENT MESOANALYSIS AND GOES PW IMAGERY SHOW SURFACE HIGH CENTERED
OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY WITH RICHEST GULF MOISTURE CONFINED TO
LOCATIONS GENERALLY EQUATORWARD OF 26N. HOWEVER...12Z OBSERVATIONS
FROM BRO AND CRP DID INDICATE THAT WIND FIELDS HAVE ALREADY BECOME
SELY/SLY AT 850 MB WITH SOME ELEVATED MOISTURE RETURN UNDERWAY
ACROSS S TX. WITH APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE SRN
ROCKIES...ENHANCEMENT OF LLJ WILL OCCUR FROM TX INTO THE CNTRL GULF
COAST NAMELY DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST. THIS WILL
EXPEDITE NWD RETURN OF MOISTURE ABOVE BOUNDARY-LAYER AND WHEN
COUPLED WITH STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WILL RESULT IN
POCKETS OF WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SRN
PLAINS. WHILE LAPSE RATES WILL BE WEAKER OVER THE CNTRL GULF
COAST...INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG/S OF RETREATING WARM
FRONT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO POCKETS OF WEAK INSTABILITY AS WELL.

POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL EXIST ON SATURDAY NIGHT
FROM PORTIONS OF WRN TX INTO OK AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTERACTS WITH WEAK INSTABILITY.
ISOLATED TSTM ACTIVITY MAY EXTEND AS FAR E AS THE CNTRL GULF COAST
ALONG ERN EDGE OF LLJ AXIS.

..MEAD.. 12/03/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.