From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Dec 1 05:25:21 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 01 Dec 2004 00:25:21 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200412010527.iB15RNE30352@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 010525 SWODY2 SPC AC 010524 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1124 PM CST TUE NOV 30 2004 VALID 021200Z - 031200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE EVOLUTION OF CONFLUENT UPPER FLOW PATTERN ACROSS MUCH OF THE NATION BY EARLY THURSDAY...AS SPLIT MID LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES MERGE INTO BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL/EASTERN STATES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL SUPPORT SPRAWLING SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/ROCKIES...PLAINS...OHIO VALLEY AND GULF STATES. STABLY STRATIFIED THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS REGIME ARE EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE ANY APPRECIABLE RISK FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. ..KERR.. 12/01/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Dec 1 16:59:28 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 01 Dec 2004 11:59:28 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200412011701.iB1H1SE25923@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 011659 SWODY2 SPC AC 011658 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK ISSUED BY AFWA OFFUTT AIR FORCE BASE BELLEVUE NE 1058 AM CST WED DEC 01 2004 VALID 021200Z - 031200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... TEST. TEST. TEST. THE SCHEDULED 1730Z OUTLOOK WILL BE TRANSMITTED BY 1730Z. TEST. TEST. TEST. ..AFWA.. 12/01/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Dec 1 17:03:22 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 01 Dec 2004 12:03:22 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200412011705.iB1H5ME27570@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 011703 SWODY2 SPC AC 011702 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1102 AM CST WED DEC 01 2004 VALID 021200Z - 031200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SOUTH TEXAS... WEAK WARM ADVECTION ACROSS NERN MEXICO AND DEEP SOUTH TX WILL ALLOW SLOW MOISTENING OF LOW-MID LEVELS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS PROCESS SHOULD PROVE INADEQUATE IN GENERATING DEEP CONVECTION GIVEN THE MARGINAL LAPSE RATES AND EXPECTED ASCENT TO THE NW OF A WEAK SFC WAVE THAT SHOULD EVOLVE ALONG BOUNDARY OVER THE NWRN GULF OF MEXICO. ..DARROW.. 12/01/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Dec 2 05:28:22 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 02 Dec 2004 00:28:22 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200412020530.iB25UKE02077@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 020528 SWODY2 SPC AC 020527 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1127 PM CST WED DEC 01 2004 VALID 031200Z - 041200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... THOUGH UNCERTAINTIES STILL EXIST WITH REGARD TO RATE OF PROGRESSION/ AMPLITUDE OF SMALLER SCALE FEATURES...MODELS REMAIN SIMILAR IN DEPICTION OF LARGE-SCALE UPPER FLOW EVOLUTION THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS ALL INDICATE AMPLIFICATION OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST BY LATE FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. PERHAPS IN RESPONSE TO THIS SYSTEM...EASTWARD ACCELERATION AND PHASING OF DOWNSTREAM SOUTHERN BRANCH CLOSED LOW AND IMPULSE IN SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES IS PROGGED NEAR THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY AN INTENSIFYING HIGH-LEVEL JET STREAK FROM THE SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC THROUGH THE NORTHERN MEXICAN PLATEAU. WHILE LATEST ETA/GFS APPEAR A BIT SLOWER THAN PRIOR RUNS WITH DEVELOPMENTS IN THE SOUTHWEST...LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL STILL FAVOR INCREASING LOW/MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN MEXICAN PLATEAU/RIO GRANDE VALLEY INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. INFLUX OF MID/HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE OFF THE SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC WILL CONTRIBUTE TO PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...AT LEAST SOME STRENGTHENING OF SURFACE RIDGE IS FORECAST BY FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE GULF STATES AND MUCH OF THE NORTHERN/ EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...IN WAKE OF A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES. THIS WILL PRECLUDE RISK OF SURFACE-BASED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALSO BECOME RATHER POOR ACROSS THIS REGION...MINIMIZING RISK FOR STORMS BASED ABOVE SURFACE RIDGING. ..KERR.. 12/02/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Dec 2 16:31:10 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 02 Dec 2004 11:31:10 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200412021633.iB2GX5E14118@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 021629 SWODY2 SPC AC 021628 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK ISSUED BY AFWA OFFUTT AIR FORCE BASE BELLEVUE NE 1028 AM CST THU DEC 02 2004 VALID 031200Z - 041200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... MODELS REVEAL A WEAK SHORTWAVE TRANSITIONING IN THE UPPER LEVELS ACROSS THE NRN MS AND OHIO VALLEY. THOUGH SOME SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR ADVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM...INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN WEAK WITH NOT MUCH REFLECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS. NRN MEXICO WILL BE THE BEST AREA FOR POSSIBLE CONVECTION. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SLIGHTLY DIFFLUENT OVER THE REGION. WARM MOIST AIR WILL FLOW FROM THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA INTO THE LOW LEVELS OVER THE REGION ENHANCING LAPSE RATES GENERATING POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SEVERE PARAMETERS ARE NOT EXPECTED...HOWEVER ISOLATED GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY MIGRATE NORTH OVER THE UPPER RIO GRAND VALLEY INTO SRN NEW MEXICO AND EXTREME SW TX DURING FRIDAY NIGHT. ..AFWA.. 12/02/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Dec 3 06:22:38 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 03 Dec 2004 01:22:38 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200412030624.iB36OVE18270@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 030622 SWODY2 SPC AC 030621 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1221 AM CST FRI DEC 03 2004 VALID 041200Z - 051200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW BPT 50 WSW POE 45 N POE 35 SE MLU 10 WSW JAN LUL 30 SSW MOB. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SRN PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY AREA... A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SERN STATES WILL MAINTAIN OFFSHORE FLOW OVER THE GULF COASTAL AREA INTO PART OF SATURDAY. MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT EJECTING THE UPPER LOW NOW MOVING SLOWLY SWD THROUGH CA INTO THE SRN PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT....WITH ATTENDANT LEE CYCLOGENESIS AND DEVELOPMENT OF A SLY LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY. OFFSHORE TRAJECTORIES WILL MAINTAIN AN INFLUX OF CP AIR OVER THE NRN GULF MUCH OF SATURDAY. RICHER GULF MOISTURE WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE S OF A WARM FRONT. HOWEVER...THE STRENGTHENING SSWLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS MODIFIED CP AIR ADVECTS INLAND OVERNIGHT ABOVE THE RELATIVELY COOL AND STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. THE RESULTING THETA-E ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF VERY MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND ELEVATED CONVECTION FROM ERN PARTS THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. ISOLATED LIGHTNING MAY ACCOMPANY SOME OF THE ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST WHERE POTENTIAL FOR SLIGHTLY GREATER INSTABILITY WILL EXIST. ..DIAL.. 12/03/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Dec 3 16:19:55 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 03 Dec 2004 11:19:55 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200412031621.iB3GLlE10097@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 031614 SWODY2 SPC AC 031613 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1013 AM CST FRI DEC 03 2004 VALID 041200Z - 051200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSE CVS 30 ESE AMA 40 W END 20 SE TUL 35 W PGO 30 S DUA 20 NW BWD 35 WNW SJT 30 NNE FST 30 SW HOB 50 SSE CVS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW BPT 50 WSW POE 45 N POE 35 SE MLU 10 WSW JAN LUL 30 SSW MOB. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... WITH APPROACH OF VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY NEAR 45N/155W...MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW OFF THE CA COAST IS FORECAST TO OPEN AND EJECT EWD INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS BY SUNDAY MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WITH ATTENDANT LEE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT SWD INTO WRN TX. MEANWHILE... FARTHER TO THE SE...MARINE BAROCLINIC ZONE/WARM FRONT WILL RETREAT NWD ONTO THE WRN/CNTRL GULF COAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. ...SRN PLAINS INTO THE CNTRL GULF COAST... CURRENT MESOANALYSIS AND GOES PW IMAGERY SHOW SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY WITH RICHEST GULF MOISTURE CONFINED TO LOCATIONS GENERALLY EQUATORWARD OF 26N. HOWEVER...12Z OBSERVATIONS FROM BRO AND CRP DID INDICATE THAT WIND FIELDS HAVE ALREADY BECOME SELY/SLY AT 850 MB WITH SOME ELEVATED MOISTURE RETURN UNDERWAY ACROSS S TX. WITH APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES...ENHANCEMENT OF LLJ WILL OCCUR FROM TX INTO THE CNTRL GULF COAST NAMELY DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST. THIS WILL EXPEDITE NWD RETURN OF MOISTURE ABOVE BOUNDARY-LAYER AND WHEN COUPLED WITH STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WILL RESULT IN POCKETS OF WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS. WHILE LAPSE RATES WILL BE WEAKER OVER THE CNTRL GULF COAST...INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG/S OF RETREATING WARM FRONT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO POCKETS OF WEAK INSTABILITY AS WELL. POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL EXIST ON SATURDAY NIGHT FROM PORTIONS OF WRN TX INTO OK AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTERACTS WITH WEAK INSTABILITY. ISOLATED TSTM ACTIVITY MAY EXTEND AS FAR E AS THE CNTRL GULF COAST ALONG ERN EDGE OF LLJ AXIS. ..MEAD.. 12/03/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Dec 4 06:05:18 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 04 Dec 2004 01:05:18 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200412040607.iB4677E21341@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 040604 SWODY2 SPC AC 040603 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1203 AM CST SAT DEC 04 2004 VALID 051200Z - 061200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE CRP 25 E COT 45 WSW HDO 50 SW JCT 30 SSE SJT 40 NE SJT 50 N ABI 10 SW LTS 35 ENE GAG 25 W HUT 25 SSE CNK 30 NNE FNB 10 ENE OTM 25 SW MMO 30 NNE IND 50 NNW JKL 20 WSW TRI 25 WSW AND 35 WNW MCN 40 NE DHN 10 SE PFN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NNW VBG 35 S BFL 10 ESE PMD 35 ESE RAL 25 E CZZ. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... ...SRN PLAINS THROUGH LOWER MS VALLEY... THE UPPER LOW NOW OFF THE COAST OF CNTRL CA IS FORECAST TO EJECT EWD AND INTO THE SRN PLAINS BY EARLY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE NOW FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE SERN STATES WILL GIVE WAY TO LEE CYCLOGENESIS BY SATURDAY AS HEIGHTS FALL IN RESPONSE TO EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO SLY FROM THE SRN PLAINS...LOWER MS VALLEY AND GULF BY SATURDAY NIGHT AS LEE CYCLOGENESIS COMMENCES AND THE SURFACE RIDGE RETREATS. THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY NOW OVER THE NRN GULF WILL RETREAT NWD AS A WARM FRONT. THIS WILL ALLOW MODIFYING GULF AIR WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S TO BEGIN RETURNING INTO SRN AND ERN TX THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY. STRENGTHENING SSWLY LOW LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH LEE CYCLOGENESIS WILL ENHANCE THETA-E ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD ELEVATED STORMS FROM PARTS OF OK INTO ERN TX AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY BY EARLY SUNDAY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIFT NEWD TOWARD THE TN VALLEY DURING THE DAY. MEAGER INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE THREAT WITH MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...INFLUX OF HIGHER THETA-E LOW LEVEL AIR SUGGESTS STORMS DEVELOPING ON THE TAIL END OF THE MCS OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY MAY UNDERGO SOME INTENSIFICATION DURING THE DAY. THE LOW LEVEL AND DEEP SHEAR PROFILES WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS IF SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY DOES INDEED DEVELOP. FARTHER W AND N ACROSS ERN OK THROUGH CNTRL/ERN TX...PERSISTENT MID LEVEL SWLY FLOW SHOULD PROMOTE AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER SPREADING NEWD INTO TX ABOVE RETURNING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH RESULTING DESTABILIZATION. ADVECTION OF THE EML IN CONJUNCTION WITH POTENTIAL FOR DENSE CIRRUS PLUME SHOULD EFFECTIVELY CAP THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS TX. HOWEVER...BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE NE PACIFIC IS FORECAST TO EJECT INTO THE SRN PLAINS ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING. THE RESULTING ASCENT MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO MOISTEN THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES AND WEAKEN THE CAP ENOUGH FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP FROM PARTS OF OK SWD INTO PARTS OF N TX. SRN EXTENT OF INITIATION INTO TX MAY BE LIMITED BY STRONGER CAP. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE ELEVATED...BUT WITH POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE MAINLY HAIL. ..DIAL.. 12/04/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Dec 4 08:21:47 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 04 Dec 2004 03:21:47 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200412040823.iB48NcE30844@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 040818 SWODY2 SPC AC 040817 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0217 AM CST SAT DEC 04 2004 VALID 051200Z - 061200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NNW VBG 35 S BFL 10 ESE PMD 35 ESE RAL 25 E CZZ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE CRP 25 E COT 45 WSW HDO 50 SW JCT 30 SSE SJT 40 NE SJT 50 N ABI 10 SW LTS 35 ENE GAG 25 W HUT 25 SSE CNK 30 NNE FNB 10 ENE OTM 25 SW MMO 30 NNE IND 50 NNW JKL 20 WSW TRI 25 WSW AND 35 WNW MCN 40 NE DHN 10 SE PFN. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SRN PLAINS THROUGH LOWER MS VALLEY... THE UPPER LOW NOW OFF THE COAST OF CNTRL CA IS FORECAST TO EJECT EWD AND INTO THE SRN PLAINS BY EARLY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE NOW FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE SERN STATES WILL GIVE WAY TO LEE CYCLOGENESIS BY SATURDAY AS HEIGHTS FALL IN RESPONSE TO EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO SLY FROM THE SRN PLAINS...LOWER MS VALLEY AND GULF BY SATURDAY NIGHT AS LEE CYCLOGENESIS COMMENCES AND THE SURFACE RIDGE RETREATS. THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY NOW OVER THE NRN GULF WILL RETREAT NWD AS A WARM FRONT. THIS WILL ALLOW MODIFYING GULF AIR WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S TO BEGIN RETURNING INTO SRN AND ERN TX THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY. STRENGTHENING SSWLY LOW LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH LEE CYCLOGENESIS WILL ENHANCE THETA-E ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD ELEVATED STORMS FROM PARTS OF OK INTO ERN TX AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY BY EARLY SUNDAY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIFT NEWD TOWARD THE TN VALLEY DURING THE DAY. MEAGER INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE THREAT WITH MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...INFLUX OF HIGHER THETA-E LOW LEVEL AIR SUGGESTS STORMS DEVELOPING ON THE TAIL END OF THE MCS OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY MAY UNDERGO SOME INTENSIFICATION DURING THE DAY. THE LOW LEVEL AND DEEP SHEAR PROFILES WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS IF SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY DOES INDEED DEVELOP. FARTHER W AND N ACROSS ERN OK THROUGH CNTRL/ERN TX...PERSISTENT MID LEVEL SWLY FLOW SHOULD PROMOTE AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER SPREADING NEWD INTO TX ABOVE RETURNING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH RESULTING DESTABILIZATION. ADVECTION OF THE EML IN CONJUNCTION WITH POTENTIAL FOR DENSE CIRRUS PLUME SHOULD EFFECTIVELY CAP THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS TX. HOWEVER...BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE NE PACIFIC IS FORECAST TO EJECT INTO THE SRN PLAINS ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING. THE RESULTING ASCENT MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO MOISTEN THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES AND WEAKEN THE CAP ENOUGH FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP FROM PARTS OF OK SWD INTO PARTS OF N TX. SRN EXTENT OF INITIATION INTO TX MAY BE LIMITED BY STRONGER CAP. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE ELEVATED...BUT WITH POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE MAINLY HAIL. ..DIAL.. 12/04/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Dec 4 16:31:22 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 04 Dec 2004 11:31:22 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200412041633.iB4GXAE01349@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 041628 SWODY2 SPC AC 041627 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1027 AM CST SAT DEC 04 2004 VALID 051200Z - 061200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE CRP 25 SSE DRT ...CONT... 25 WSW ELP 50 ENE ROW 40 NW CDS 30 SW END 25 NW BVO 10 NE FLV 25 S OTM 35 NE PIA 30 NNE IND 50 NNW JKL 20 WSW TRI 25 WSW AND 35 WNW MCN 40 NE DHN 10 SE PFN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NNW VBG 35 S BFL 10 ESE PMD 35 ESE RAL 25 E CZZ. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... ACTIVE SRN BRANCH OF WESTERLIES IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE SRN CONUS THROUGH THE DAY 2 PERIOD WITH PRIMARY FEATURES OF INTEREST BEING MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW JUST OFF THE SRN CA COAST AND VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SEWD NEAR 42N/130W. THE FORMER IS FORECAST TO OPEN AND DE-AMPLIFY AS IT PROGRESSES EWD ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES DURING THE DAY 1 PERIOD...PRIOR TO LIFTING MORE NEWD INTO THE OH VALLEY BY MONDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...THE LATTER IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN IT/S INTENSITY AS IT TRANSLATES EWD FROM OFF THE CA COAST INTO THE SRN ROCKIES SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...CYCLONE ATTENDANT TO THE LEAD SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP NEWD FROM THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY...WITH SUBSEQUENT LEE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS LATE IN THE PERIOD. ...UPPER TX COAST INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY... CLUSTERS OF TSTMS ARE LIKELY TO BE ONGOING INITIALLY OVER PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL GULF COAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME DOWNSTREAM FROM EJECTING LEAD DISTURBANCE. INCREASING SLY BOUNDARY-LAYER FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE SHOULD ENHANCE NWD ADVECTION OF MODIFIED GULF AIR MASS WITH LOWER TO MID 60 F DEWPOINTS AS FAR N AS THE I-20 CORRIDOR BY AFTERNOON. THIS MOISTURE COUPLED WITH AN INCREASE IN LARGE-SCALE FORCING IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT THE NEWD DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP MOIST CONVECTION INTO PORTIONS OF THE TN VALLEY SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN WEAK ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...EFFECTIVELY LIMITING THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FROM PORTIONS OF THE UPPER TX COAST INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY ALONG SRN EDGE OF BROAD PRECIPITATION AREA WHERE INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SLIGHTLY STRONGER AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION. HERE...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF TORNADO. ...WRN TX... STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ABOVE A GRADUALLY MOISTENING LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS IS FORECAST DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD IN ADVANCE OF STRONG...UPSTREAM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE SRN ROCKIES. POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH DESTABILIZING ENVIRONMENT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS VALID LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING DO SUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL FOR HAIL WITH STRONGEST STORMS. CONFIDENCE IN ANY SEVERE THREAT REMAINS LOW ATTM...CONSEQUENTLY PRECLUDING ANY PROBABILITIES. ..MEAD.. 12/04/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Dec 5 07:10:04 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 05 Dec 2004 02:10:04 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200412050711.iB57BoE11209@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 050708 SWODY2 SPC AC 050708 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0108 AM CST SUN DEC 05 2004 VALID 061200Z - 071200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE CRP 60 WSW COT ...CONT... 45 NW DRT 20 ENE SJT 50 NE ABI 15 WNW ADM 25 WSW MKO 20 SSE UMN 40 SE VIH 20 WSW SLO 40 SSE MTO BMG 50 W LUK 20 N LEX 20 WSW LOZ 15 NE CHA 40 NW AUO 10 NE PNS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSW MRF 45 SE LBB 20 ENE END 15 N SZL 15 SSE PIA 25 SSW SBN 20 NE TOL ...CONT... 10 NW CLE 10 S CAK 35 SW HLG 35 SSE PKB 40 ENE 5I3 20 ENE HSS 20 W AHN 45 S CSG PFN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF TX INTO THE MS...TN AND OH VALLEYS... ...SYNOPSIS... STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OFF THE CA COAST CONTINUES TO DIG SSEWD. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO EJECT EWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS BY EARLY MONDAY AND INTO THE MS...TN AND OH VALLEYS MONDAY NIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY A COLD FRONT. ASSOCIATED LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DEEPENING OF CNTRL PLAINS LEE CYCLONE. THIS FEATURE WILL LIFT NEWD THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY MONDAY EVENING AND INTO THE OH VALLEY LATE MONDAY NIGHT. WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP NWD AND INTO THE OH VALLEY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. ...CNTRL THROUGH ERN TX...LOWER MS...TN AND OH VALLEYS... MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARD A SLOWER SOLUTION THE PAST FEW RUNS...SUGGESTING SEVERE THREAT MAY EXTEND FARTHER W INTO PARTS OF TX. BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IS SHIFTING TO SLY OVER THE WRN/CNTRL GULF AS SURFACE RIDGE RETREATS AND LEE CYCLOGENESIS COMMENCES OVER THE PLAINS. SLY FLOW SHOULD BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND SERN U.S. SUNDAY...ALLOWING MODIFYING GULF MOISTURE TO RETURN NWD THROUGH THE WARM SECTOR. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S ARE EXPECTED FROM CNTRL TX THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 DEWPOINTS INTO THE OH VALLEY. POTENTIAL FOR GREATER INSTABILITY WILL EXIST FROM TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY WHERE RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL EXIST UNDERNEATH PLUME OF STEEPER LAPSE RATES WITH MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG POSSIBLE. WEAKER LAPSE RATES AND MORE LIMITED MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN MUCH WEAKER INSTABILITY FARTHER NWD INTO THE TN AND OH VALLEYS. ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY FROM PARTS OF TX INTO OK AS FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH ADVANCES EWD. MAIN THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LARGE HAIL GIVEN PRESENCE OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT CLOUD LAYER SHEAR FOR UPDRAFTS TO ROTATE. STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SURFACE BASED AS ZONE OF ASCENT ALONG WARM CONVEYOR BELT SPREADS EWD INTO THE DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER. STRENGTHENING LOW-MID LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS AND LINES/BOWING SEGMENTS WITH DAMAGING WIND...ISOLATED TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE ONCE ACTIVITY BECOMES SURFACE BASED. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP FARTHER W WITHIN ZONE OF STRONG LINEAR FORCING ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL TX. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DEVELOP INTO A SQUALL LINE WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND BOWS AS IT CONTINUES EWD. ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD EWD INTO PARTS OF THE MID/LOWER MS VALLEYS DURING THE EVENING AND TN/OH VALLEYS OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...NWD EXTENT OF SEVERE THREAT INTO THE OH VALLEY MAY BE LIMITED BY MARGINAL INSTABILITY. ..DIAL.. 12/05/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Dec 5 17:19:28 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 05 Dec 2004 12:19:28 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200412051721.iB5HLCE08399@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 051716 SWODY2 SPC AC 051715 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1115 AM CST SUN DEC 05 2004 VALID 061200Z - 071200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE CRP 15 SW LRD ...CONT... 45 NW DRT 20 ENE SJT 50 WNW MWL 35 W ADM 25 WSW MKO 20 SSE UMN 40 SE VIH 20 WSW SLO 40 SSE MTO BMG 50 W LUK 20 N LEX 20 WSW LOZ 15 NE CHA 40 NW AUO 15 SSW PNS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NW CLE 10 S CAK 35 SW HLG 35 SSE PKB 40 ENE 5I3 20 ENE HSS 20 W AHN 45 S CSG PFN ...CONT... 55 SSW MRF 45 SE LBB 20 ENE END 15 N SZL 15 SSE PIA 25 SSW SBN 20 NE TOL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN TX INTO THE LOWER/MID MS AND OH VALLEYS... ...SYNOPSIS... MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND CURRENT LDS DATA SHOW A QUITE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SEWD OFF THE SRN CA COAST. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE AND INTO THE DESERT SW DURING THE DAY 1 PERIOD...PRIOR TO EJECTING EWD ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE MS VALLEY REGION ON MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...SURFACE CYCLONE ATTENDANT TO THIS SYSTEM WILL INITIALLY DEVELOP SEWD FROM ERN CO INTO OK PRIOR TO MOVING/DEVELOPING RAPIDLY NEWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MEANWHILE...TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS INTO THE MS VALLEY AND WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCUS OF SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT. ...POTENTIALLY ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER DAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ARKLATEX INTO LOWER MS VALLEY... ...TX EWD AND NEWD INTO THE LOWER/MID MS AND OH VALLEYS... CURRENT MESOANALYSIS INDICATES WARM FRONT STEADILY MOVING NWD ONTO THE MIDDLE/UPPER TX AND CNTRL GULF COASTS WITH UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS COMMON OVER THE NWRN GULF OF MEXICO. PERSISTENT SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW /AIDED BY BOTH SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY LIFTING NEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS AND APPROACHING UPSTREAM SYSTEM/ WILL ALLOW WARM/MOIST SECTOR TO DEVELOP NWD ACROSS THE SRN LOW PLAINS AND LOWER/MID MS VALLEY WITH 60 F DEWPOINTS EXPECTED AS FAR N AS THE LOWER OH VALLEY BY MONDAY NIGHT. WHEN COUPLED WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH EML OBSERVED ON 12Z BRO/CRP SOUNDINGS...EXPECT MODERATE INSTABILITY /I.E. MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG/ TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. AIR MASS STABILITY WILL LIKELY INCREASE WITH NWD EXTENT ACROSS PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR OWING TO WEAKER LAPSE RATES AND DECREASING AMOUNTS OF BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE. LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE IS RELATIVELY CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUN IN SPREADING STRONGEST LARGE-SCALE HEIGHT FALLS AND CONCOMITANT FORCING ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS REGION MONDAY INTO THE MID MS VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...EXPECT AN INCREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BY MID DAY ALONG COLD FRONT AS IT ENCOUNTERS WRN EDGE OF DEVELOPING INSTABILITY AXIS OVER PORTIONS OF CNTRL/N-CNTRL TX. PERSISTENT DOWNSTREAM MOISTENING/LOW-LEVEL WAA MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO OVERCOME CAP AND INITIATE ADDITIONAL STORMS FARTHER E ALONG RETREATING WARM FRONT OR WITHIN FREE WARM SECTOR OVER PORTIONS OF THE ARKLATEX REGION. WITH TIME...EXPECT STORMS TO CONSOLIDATE ALONG COLD FRONT...MOVING/DEVELOPING NEWD INTO THE LOWER OH/WRN TN AND LOWER MS VALLEYS OVERNIGHT. PRESENCE OF 75-85 KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK LIFTING NEWD FROM TX INTO THE OH VALLEY IN CONJUNCTION WITH 45-55 KT LLJ ACROSS SAME GENERAL AREA WILL RESULT IN A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD AREA OF WIND PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRIMARILY ISOLATED TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS. GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION INTO THE WRN TN AND LOWER MS VALLEYS WHERE BEST COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ARE FORECAST TO CO-EXIST. UNCERTAINTY IN CONVECTIVE MODE AND DEGREE OF AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION PRECLUDE A CATEGORICAL INCREASE ATTM...HOWEVER PORTIONS OF AREA MAY WELL BE UPGRADED TO A MODERATE RISK ON SUBSEQUENT DAY 1 OUTLOOKS. ..MEAD.. 12/05/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Dec 6 06:45:16 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 06 Dec 2004 01:45:16 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200412060647.iB66lWE17448@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 060645 SWODY2 SPC AC 060644 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1244 AM CST MON DEC 06 2004 VALID 071200Z - 081200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WNW MCN CEW 10 NW MOB 25 SSE LUL 10 SSW HSV 20 SSW CHA 30 NE ATL 15 WNW MCN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW 7R4 15 ENE MKL 30 SSE BMG 30 NE MIE 15 NNE TOL ...CONT... 10 SW BUF 35 WSW ELM 10 WSW AVP 10 WSW JFK ...CONT... 25 ESE SAV 30 NE AYS 20 NW VLD AQQ. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE SERN U.S.... ...SYNOPSIS... VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW DROPPING INTO SRN CA WILL EJECT EWD INTO THE OH VALLEY TUESDAY AND INTO THE NERN STATES TUESDAY NIGHT. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND SERN STATES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT. ...SERN STATES... GULF MOISTURE WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 WILL HAVE ADVECTED INTO PARTS OF CNTRL/SRN MS...AL AND GA WITH LOW TO MID 60S FARTHER NORTH INTO TN. DESPITE INFLUX OF RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN LIMITED DUE TO WEAK LAPSE RATES AND AREAS OF ONGOING PRECIPITATION/CLOUDS. MLCAPE GENERALLY AOB 1000 J/KG IS EXPECTED NEAR THE COAST AND AOB 500 J/KG FARTHER N TOWARD TN. PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE BAND WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING FROM THE OH AND TN VALLEYS SWD INTO PARTS OF MS AND AL. KINEMATIC AND LOW-MID LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES WILL STILL BE STRONG EARLY TUESDAY. HOWEVER...BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE DAY AS LOW LEVEL JET LIFTS NEWD AWAY FROM THE BETTER INSTABILITY. TENDENCY FOR THE STRONGER FORCING AND LOW LEVEL JET TO WEAKEN WITH TIME MAY SERVE AS AN OVERALL LIMITING FACTOR FOR SEVERE WEATHER. HOWEVER...KINEMATIC PROFILES MAY REMAIN SUFFICIENT THROUGH EARLY-MID AFTERNOON TO SUPPORT A THREAT OF PRIMARILY ISOLATED STRONG-DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ...OH VALLEY... POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS ACCOMPANYING LOW TOPPED CONVECTION MAY EXIST WITH PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE BAND GIVEN STRENGTH OF LOW LEVEL FLOW/SHEAR. HOWEVER...WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL THREAT. THERE IS SOME CHANCE THAT OTHER LOW TOPPED CONVECTION MIGHT DEVELOP FARTHER W ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON WHERE STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE HEATING WILL EXIST IN DRY SLOT REGION. HOWEVER...TENDENCY FOR LOW LEVEL FLOW TO WEAKEN AND VEER IN PRE-FRONTAL ZONE AND POTENTIAL FOR MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SUGGEST FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WILL NOT BE DEEP OR STRONG ENOUGH TO INITIATE STORMS. ...ERN CAROLINAS THROUGH ERN VA... STORMS WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL HAVE BEEN STABILIZED BY WEDGE FRONT THAT WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF ERODING. RICHER MOISTURE FROM THE GULF STREAM WILL LIKELY ADVECT INTO ERN PORTIONS OF NC WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. HOWEVER...GIVEN WEAK LAPSE RATES...INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN VERY MARGINAL. THE LIMITED INSTABILITY AND EXPECTED LATE ARRIVAL OF ANY REMAINING FORCING FOR ASCENT SUGGEST OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IN THIS AREA SHOULD BE LOW. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR STORMS TO INTENSIFY IN BAROCLINIC ZONE LINGERING OFF THE COAST OF NC AS FORCING FOR ASCENT ARRIVES TUESDAY NIGHT. ..DIAL.. 12/06/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Dec 6 17:36:16 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 06 Dec 2004 12:36:16 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200412061738.iB6HceE00862@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 061736 SWODY2 SPC AC 061735 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1135 AM CST MON DEC 06 2004 VALID 071200Z - 081200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WNW MCN CEW 10 NW MOB 35 S LUL 35 W TCL 25 SW CHA 30 NE ATL 15 WNW MCN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW CRE 70 N AYS ABY PFN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N BUF 50 NE BFD 20 W IPT 30 SW AVP 25 E MSV 25 WSW EEN PSM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S LCH 40 SSW GWO 35 S MKL 40 NE PAH 35 NNW SLO 20 NE SPI 30 WSW CGX 50 W MBS 30 ENE MBS. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTH... ...SYNOPSIS... POWERFUL UPPER TROUGH NOW EJECTING NEWD FROM ERN NM/W TX AREA WILL RACE NEWD FROM THE LOWER OH VALLEY TO NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY. ASSOCIATED STRONG SURFACE CYCLONE WILL TRACK NEWD FROM IL TO SRN QUEBEC DURING THE PERIOD AS SECONDARY SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS ERN NEW ENGLAND AND MOVES OVER THE GULF OF MAINE TUESDAY NIGHT. A STRONGLY FORCED PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING EARLY IN THE PERIOD FROM EAST OF THE LOW CENTER SWD ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND CONTINUING SWWD TO THE MOUTH OF THE MS RIVER. THIS LINE WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE MORNING WHILE STRONGEST LARGE SCALE FORCING BECOMES INCREASINGLY REMOVED FROM HIGHER THETAE AIRMASS ACROSS THE SOUTH. ...SOUTH... POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD EXIST EARLY IN THE DAY FROM MIDDLE TN SWD ACROSS AL TO MOBILE BAY/WRN FL PNHDL AREA AS A STRONGLY FORCED SQUALL LINE MOVES EAST. DESPITE WEAK LAPSE RATES... AIRMASS ACROSS THESE AREAS WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY MOIST WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S CONTRIBUTING TO MUCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG. STRONGER LARGE SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALL CENTER WILL BE LIFTING AWAY FROM THE REGION DURING THE DAY...MOVING FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE ERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH EVENING. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN WEAKENING CONVERGENCE ALONG THE TRAILING FRONTAL ZONE AND LATEST ETA WAS SUGGEST DIMINISHING CONVECTIVE QPF WITHIN THIS ZONE...ACROSS AL/GA...DURING THE AFTERNOON. WIND FIELDS...HOWEVER...WILL REMAIN VERY STRONG ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH 60-70KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOW LEVEL MOIST AXIS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT...IN ADDITION TO EARLY DAY SEVERE POTENTIAL...A COUPLE OF LATE DAY TSTMS MIGHT DEVELOP WHERE STALLING FRONT IMPINGES ON RESIDUAL INSTABILITY. A COUPLE OF HAIL/WIND REPORTS COULD ALSO OCCUR WITH THIS CONVECTION. ...TN/KY TO OH... LOW TOPPED SQUALL LINE DRIVEN BY INTENSE DYNAMIC FORCING AND SHEAR MAY ACCOMPANY THE SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT ACROSS THE OH VALLEY INTO THE AFTERNOON. A FEW BOWING SEGMENTS WITHIN THIS LINE COULD PRODUCE ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS. AT PRESENT IT APPEARS THAT INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN TOO WEAK/LIMITED TO SUSTAIN A HIGHER PROBABILITY WIND THREAT. ..CARBIN.. 12/06/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Dec 8 06:35:01 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 08 Dec 2004 01:35:01 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200412080637.iB86bJE25739@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 080635 SWODY2 SPC AC 080634 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1234 AM CST WED DEC 08 2004 VALID 091200Z - 101200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E JAX 20 W CTY ...CONT... 20 NE GLS 30 N POE 35 WSW GLH 35 W UOX 25 S MKL 60 WSW BNA 15 SSW BNA 20 W CSV 15 WSW TYS 30 WSW AVL 10 NNE SPA 25 ENE CLT 30 S DAN 60 N RWI 35 SE RIC 35 NE ORF. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WRN U.S. WILL CONTINUE EWD INTO THE CNTRL/ERN STATES THURSDAY. VORT MAX NOW OVER AZ EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BROADER UPPER TROUGH WILL EJECT ENEWD INTO THE TN VALLEY BY LATE WEDNESDAY. STRONGER UPSTREAM IMPULSE WILL DROP SEWD INTO THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER TROUGH BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN AMPLIFICATION OF BROADER TROUGH OVER THE MS VALLEY AND SERN STATES. PRIMARY SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP SEWD FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE OH VALLEY BY LATE THURSDAY WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND INTO THE SERN STATES. MODELS DIFFER SOMEWHAT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FEATURES WITH THE ETA BEING A LITTLE SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED THAN THE GFS. ...LOWER MS VALLEY THROUGH SERN STATES... RICH GULF MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S RESIDES OVER THE CNTRL GULF S OF A STATIONARY BOUNDARY. AS LEE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS AND THE SERN U.S. SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EWD...SLY FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM THE GULF NWD INTO THE SERN STATES WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE RICHER MOISTURE TO ADVECT INLAND. DESPITE THE RETURN OF RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...MODEST LAPSE RATES AND AREAS OF WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY LIMIT INSTABILITY. MUCAPE GENERALLY BELOW 500 J/KG IS EXPECTED WELL INLAND AND AOB 1000 J/KG NEAR THE COAST. BAND OF CONVECTION ACCOMPANYING LEAD SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL JET WILL LIKELY BE IN PROGRESS FROM PARTS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY NEWD THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE SERN STATES EARLY THURSDAY. DESPITE BEING EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILES...MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE ELEVATED AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY SUGGESTS OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE LOW. BY AFTERNOON...CONTINUED INFLUX OF GULF MOISTURE AND BETTER INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER...NEAR SURFACE BASED STORMS NEAR THE COAST. HOWEVER...THE STRONGER LOW LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO LIFT NEWD AWAY FROM THIS AREA AS LEAD SHORTWAVE MIGRATES TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC. SOME DESTABILIZATION MAY OCCUR UPSTREAM NEAR THE COLD FRONT IN WAKE OF INITIAL CONVECTIVE BAND IF LOW CLOUDS CAN MIX OUT. FORCING FOR ASCENT IN VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY MAY INCREASE AS THE UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES DURING THE EVENING WITH POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS TO DEVELOP. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS WITH STORMS DEVELOPING WITHIN LEAD CONVECTIVE BAND AS WELL AS ALONG THE COLD FRONT...CONDITIONAL UPON THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THE TIMING/EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN AND POTENTIAL FOR LIMITED INSTABILITY SUGGEST MORE THAN 5% SEVERE PROBABILITIES ARE NOT WARRANTED AT TIME. AN UPGRADE TO SLIGHT MAY BE NECESSARY IN LATER OUTLOOKS ONCE THESE DETAILS BECOME CLEARER. ..DIAL.. 12/08/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Dec 8 17:31:35 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 08 Dec 2004 12:31:35 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200412081734.iB8HY2E15540@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 081731 SWODY2 SPC AC 081729 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1129 AM CST WED DEC 08 2004 VALID 091200Z - 101200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW CBM 30 NNW BHM 30 E LGC 35 SW MCN 15 E CEW MOB GPT MCB 15 SSW CBM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE BPT MLU DYR OWB SDF 10 E LEX 15 S JKL 35 NE TRI LYH 20 N RIC 15 E SBY ...CONT... 15 E JAX 20 W CTY. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THURSDAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL/ERN GULF COAST STATES.... AMPLIFICATION IN LARGE-SCALE UPPER FLOW IS ALREADY EVIDENT IN LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. MODELS SUGGEST UPPER RIDGE...NOW BUILDING ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC...WILL CONTINUE TO NOSE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES/PACIFIC COAST STATES AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...BROAD TROUGH...NOW EVOLVING ACROSS THE PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WILL DEEPEN SHARPLY...WITH A DEEP CLOSED LOW PROGGED TO FORM ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. CENTRAL U.S. TROUGH IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO THE PROGRESSION OF A COUPLE OF DISTINCT SHORT WAVE TROUGHS...ONE IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM...THE OTHER IN THE NORTHERN STREAM. SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH IS ALREADY MIGRATING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND PROGGED TO CONTINUE INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY EARLY THURSDAY...BEFORE ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. NORTHERN BRANCH SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND ROCKIES THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...BEFORE DIGGING STRONGLY INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. ...CENTRAL GULF STATES... IN RESPONSE TO LEAD...SOUTHERN TROUGH...A RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO OCCUR FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF STATES...WITH SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE DEVELOPING NORTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN GULF STATES BY THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. INFLUX OF MOISTURE/ DESTABILIZATION AND LARGE-SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO FAIRLY BROAD AREA OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY THURSDAY. MUCH OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY LIKELY WILL BE OCCURRING ABOVE FRONTAL INVERSION...NORTH OF SURFACE FRONT...FROM PARTS OF THE UPPER TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. HOWEVER...ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO TRAIL SOUTHWARD INTO WARM SECTOR ACROSS MISSISSIPPI/ LOUISIANA...WHERE MID-LEVEL FORCING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO WEAKEN INHIBITION. WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND SHALLOW NOCTURNAL SURFACE-BASED INVERSION LAYER...MAY INITIALLY BE INHIBITING SEVERE THREAT IN STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT ALONG 40 TO 50 KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS. HOWEVER...WITH AT LEAST SOME HEATING... MODIFYING BOUNDARY LAYER THROUGH THE MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY SUPPORTIVE OF SURFACE-BASED STORMS AS ACTIVITY SPREADS EASTWARD. A FEW SUPERCELLS APPEAR POSSIBLE...NEAR OR WITHIN SQUALL LINE...WITH ASSOCIATED ENHANCED RISK OF ISOLATED TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. TENDENCY MAY BE FOR WEAKENING UPPER SUPPORT ACROSS THE CENTRAL/ EASTERN GULF STATES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY IF LATEST ETA SOLUTION VERIFIES CLOSER THAN GFS. HOWEVER...MOIST UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG LIKELY WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SEVERE THREAT UNTIL ONSET OF COOLING AFTER DARK THURSDAY EVENING. ...SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES... FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH APPEARS LIKELY TO ENHANCE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT NEAR SURFACE FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL/ EASTERN CAROLINAS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING. FRONT IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP INLAND LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY... WITH ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE OFF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. DESPITE LIKELIHOOD OF 60F+ SURFACE DEW POINTS IN WARM SECTOR...EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT SURFACE HEATING. WITH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES LIKELY NOT TO STEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY...THIS WILL MINIMIZE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER...EVEN EXPECTED DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT LOW PROBABILITY SEVERE THREAT IN STRONG MEAN FLOW/SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. ..KERR.. 12/08/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Dec 9 06:26:24 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 09 Dec 2004 01:26:24 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200412090628.iB96Se901086@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 090625 SWODY2 SPC AC 090623 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1223 AM CST THU DEC 09 2004 VALID 101200Z - 111200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM AQQ 15 SW ABY 30 ENE CSG 20 SW RMG 50 N HSV 15 SSW CKV 25 W OWB 10 ESE HUF 40 ENE LAF 35 NNE FWA 20 S DTW ...CONT... 30 NNW SYR 25 SSE UCA 20 NW POU 10 E JFK. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY OVER ERN THIRD OF THE NATION INTO FRIDAY AS A STRONG UPSTREAM IMPULSE DROPS INTO ITS BASE WHILE THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DEEPENS AND OCCLUDES OVER THE OH VALLEY. AS THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS AND MIGRATES TOWARD THE NERN STATES...A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EWD THROUGH THE REMAINING PORTIONS OF THE SERN U.S. AND OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY EVENING WHILE A WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. ...GA...FL AND THE ERN CAROLINAS... PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE BAND SHOULD STILL BE IN PROGRESS FROM SERN GA/NRN FL NEWD THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS. ACTIVITY WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG SWLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW AND VERTICAL SHEAR. THREAT FOR PRIMARILY AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUST OR TWO MAY EXIST THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE ACTIVITY MOVES OFFSHORE. HOWEVER... LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR DESTABILIZATION DUE TO MARGINAL LAPSE RATES...WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND ONGOING PRECIPITATION SUGGEST SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LOW. ...PORTIONS OF THE OH VALLEY... CONVECTION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY OVER THE OH VALLEY WITHIN DIVERGENT EXIT REGION OF CYCLONICALLY CURVED UPPER JET WHERE VERY COLD AIR ALOFT WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR -22C AT 5 KM WILL SUPPORT STEEP LAPSE RATES. WHERE POCKETS OF SURFACE HEATING CAN OCCUR...SUFFICIENT CAPE MAY DEVELOP TO SUPPORT SOME THREAT FOR HAIL ON ERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER TROUGH WHERE VERTICAL SPEED SHEAR WILL BE ENOUGH FOR UPDRAFTS TO ROTATE. UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW MUCH INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP SUGGESTS THREAT IS TOO MARGINAL TO WARRANT MORE THAN A LOW SEVERE PROBABILITY. ..DIAL.. 12/09/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Dec 9 17:20:47 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 09 Dec 2004 12:20:47 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200412091723.iB9HN0924622@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 091719 SWODY2 SPC AC 091718 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1118 AM CST THU DEC 09 2004 VALID 101200Z - 111200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW AQQ 15 SW ABY 30 ENE CSG 35 SSW ANB TCL 20 E UOX 30 S PAH 10 ESE HUF 40 ENE LAF 35 NNE FWA 20 S DTW ...CONT... 15 N ROC 20 S ITH POU 25 SSW EEN 20 ENE LCI 25 SSE 3B1 25 SSE HUL. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... COLD UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY ON FRIDAY AS IT MOVES EWD TO THE ERN U.S. AND IN ADVANCE OF BUILDING HEIGHTS UPSTREAM OVER THE PLAINS STATES. MODELS SHOW A COMPLEX SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING NEWD OVER THE NERN STATES ON DAY 2. ONE SURFACE LOW WILL LIKELY TRACK FROM ERN OH TO SRN NY...WHILE A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS SRN VA TO THE DELMARVA REGION BY 11/00Z. TRAILING COLD FRONT...INITIALLY EXTENDING FROM THE SRN APPALACHIANS SWWD ACROSS WRN GA TO THE ERN FL PANHANDLE...WILL MOVE EWD AND OFF THE MID/SRN ATLANTIC COASTAL STATES TO CENTRAL FL AFTER 11/00Z. ...SERN VA/ERN CAROLINAS TO NRN FL... THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORM OF ONE OR MORE LINES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...MAINLY EAST OF THE COLD FRONT...AND IN REGION OF HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH. SLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS DURING THE DAY 1 PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS INLAND ACROSS THE ATLANTIC STATES WITH VALUES IN THE MID-UPPER 60S REACHING ERN NC TO EXTREME SERN VA BY 12Z FRIDAY. DESPITE THIS GREATER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...POOR LAPSE RATES AND EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS SHOULD LIMIT INSTABILITY. HOWEVER... STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND SWLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELD... INCLUDING 45-50 KT AT/BELOW 1 KM...SHOULD RESULT IN A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS AND/OR BOWING SEGMENTS. SEVERE PROBABILITIES WILL REMAIN AT 5% DUE TO THE FORECAST OF LIMITED INSTABILITY...AND SINCE ANY THREAT SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FARTHER S ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA...WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEWD MOVING COLD FRONT DUE TO VEERING LOW-LEVEL WINDS...AND WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES TO THE SOUTH OF THE UPPER JET WILL COMBINE TO MINIMIZE THE POTENTIAL FOR DEEP CONVECTION/ANY SEVERE THREAT. ...SRN OH SWD TO NRN AL/GA... COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES /-24 TO -28C AT 500 MB/ WILL SPREAD ESEWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY TO NRN GULF COAST STATES DURING DAY 2 ATOP AN AIRMASS WHERE POCKETS OF SURFACE HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STEEPENING LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE 40S IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...LIMITING OVERALL INSTABILITY...BUT COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES SHOULD SUPPORT AN ISOLATED HAIL THREAT AS STORMS DEVELOP ACROSS THIS REGION BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD THEN WEAKEN/DISSIPATE BY FRIDAY EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING. ..PETERS.. 12/09/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Dec 10 05:46:35 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 10 Dec 2004 00:46:35 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200412100548.iBA5mk919316@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 100546 SWODY2 SPC AC 100545 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1145 PM CST THU DEC 09 2004 VALID 111200Z - 121200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE NATION WILL SHIFT EWD TO THE ERN SEABOARD AND DEAMPLIFY BY SUNDAY MORNING...AS A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVES SEWD FROM SASKATCHEWAN INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. ALTHOUGH AN OCCLUDED SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEWD FROM PA INTO NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY...SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WITH MOST OF THE COUNTRY COVERED BY A DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE SRN FL PENINSULA WHERE THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BY 18Z. HOWEVER...WINDS ARE FORECAST TO VEER TO WLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE SHOULD PRECLUDE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG FRONT. IN NEW ENGLAND...THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE COLD WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S AND 30S...BUT STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE DEPTH OF THE BUOYANT LAYER SHOULD NOT SUPPORT MORE THAN AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO. ..IMY.. 12/10/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Dec 10 17:29:21 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 10 Dec 2004 12:29:21 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200412101731.iBAHVV925849@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 101729 SWODY2 SPC AC 101728 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1128 AM CST FRI DEC 10 2004 VALID 111200Z - 121200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW ILM FLO 30 SSE CLT 15 ENE GSO 45 SSE CHO 25 SSE DCA 25 E SBY. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVE COLD UPPER TROUGH...NOW MOVING INTO THE ERN STATES... WILL MOVE EWD AND EXTEND FROM NEW ENGLAND TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY 12Z SUNDAY...AS STRONG WNWLY FLOW ALOFT ACCOMPANYING NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH TRACKS TOWARD THE NORTH CENTRAL STATES. AT THE SURFACE... MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW PRIMARY COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING NEWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WILL ALREADY BE OFF MUCH OF THE EAST COAST AND EXTEND SWWD TO SRN FL AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. ...MID ATLANTIC STATES... SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD ACROSS NY/PA AND THE MID ATLANTIC STATES DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE WEAK GIVEN WLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. ALTHOUGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 40S...SUFFICIENT SURFACE HEATING BENEATH COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL STEEPEN LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SUPPORT MUCAPE AOB 150 J/KG. DESPITE WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE...THIS IS EXPECTED TO PROVE FAVORABLE FOR LOW-TOPPED STORMS FROM NC TO SRN DELMARVA FROM LATE SATURDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES EWD ACROSS THIS REGION. 40-60 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG FLOW ON ERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS. HAIL WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE STORMS DUE TO LOW FREEZING LEVELS. HOWEVER...GIVEN SUCH COLD THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES...FORECAST SOUNDINGS/LOCAL HAIL MODEL INDICATE ANY HAIL SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LEVELS. ..PETERS.. 12/10/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Dec 11 05:29:44 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 11 Dec 2004 00:29:44 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200412110531.iBB5Vp906895@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 110529 SWODY2 SPC AC 110528 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1128 PM CST FRI DEC 10 2004 VALID 121200Z - 131200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WITH VERY STRONG AND DEEP LAYER WIND FIELDS...IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED IN THE UPPER MIDWEST SUNDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL TRANSLATE EWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NERN STATES AND AMPLIFY THE LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE NERN QUARTER OF THE NATION. AN INTENSE SURFACE CYCLONE WILL ACCOMPANY THE UPPER TROUGH EWD ACROSS FAR SRN ONTARIO ON SUNDAY. A TRAILING COLD FRONT SHOULD STRETCH FROM THE SURFACE LOW SWWD INTO LOWER MI ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO/MID MS VALLEYS AND INTO CENTRAL TX BY SUNDAY EVENING. ALTHOUGH 30 TO 60 MPH WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND AND AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE GREAT LAKES AREA...A DRY AIR MASS AND VEERING WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN BEHIND THE FRONT ...WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW LIKELY TO DEVELOP/INTENSIFY. HOWEVER... FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO NOT INDICATE SUFFICIENT VERTICAL DEPTH FOR MORE THAN AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO. CONVERGENCE WILL BE STRONGER ALONG THE SEWD MOVING FRONT FROM SRN TX INTO SRN LA SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL SLY FLOW STRENGTHENS. DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S MAY SPREAD INLAND AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS SRN TX/LA...BUT SHALLOW BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND WARM TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 850 AND 600 MB SHOULD INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. ..IMY.. 12/11/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Dec 11 17:02:23 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 11 Dec 2004 12:02:23 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200412111704.iBBH4S920929@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 111702 SWODY2 SPC AC 111701 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1101 AM CST SAT DEC 11 2004 VALID 121200Z - 131200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... AMPLIFIED AND PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN THE PROMINENT WEATHER PATTERN INTO THE DAY 2 FORECAST PERIOD. MEAN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WRN STATES AS DEEP ERN STATES TROUGH DE-AMPLIFIES AS IT TRACKS OVER NOVA SCOTIA/ERN CANADA ON SUNDAY. NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH...NOW OVER ALBERTA...WILL CARVE OUT A BROAD TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION/NERN STATES SWD TO THE OH/TN VALLEYS BY 12Z MONDAY. MEANWHILE...STRONG PACIFIC TROUGH /CURRENTLY LOCATED AT 36N 138W/ WILL DE-AMPLIFY AS IT MOVES NEWD ACROSS WA/ORE AND INTO THE MEAN WRN RIDGE. AT THE SURFACE...SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AREA WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD/SWD OVER THE OH/TN VALLEYS AND SOUTH CENTRAL STATES. COLD AIR SPREADING OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE GREAT LAKES WHICH CURRENTLY RANGE FROM 5-9 C WILL RESULT IN STEEPENING SURFACE-3 KM LAPSE RATES. THIS WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASING THREAT FOR CONVECTIVE LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS IN LEE OF THE LAKES...BUT OVERALL LIGHTNING COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO LOW TO WARRANT A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK. ..PETERS.. 12/11/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Dec 12 04:54:11 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 11 Dec 2004 23:54:11 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200412120456.iBC4uX908292@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 120455 SWODY2 SPC AC 120453 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1053 PM CST SAT DEC 11 2004 VALID 131200Z - 141200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS/FORECAST... THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH EXPECTED TO EVOLVE ACROSS THE ERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY SUNDAY WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD ON MONDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM LOCATED NEAR 35N/135W TRANSLATES TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A STRONG COLD FRONT IN WAKE OF THE ERN WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SERN/GULF STATES MONDAY AS A 1040 MB HIGH BUILDS SWD FROM THE NRN ROCKIES. THE AIR MASS BOTH AHEAD AND BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE TOO STABLE TO GENERATE DEEP MOIST CONVECTION ON MONDAY. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES MIGHT BE POSSIBLE DOWNWIND OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY MONDAY BEFORE EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS START TO FALL LATER IN THE DAY. OTHERWISE...POST FRONTAL CONVECTION MAY INCREASE WEST OF THE CASCADES LATE MONDAY NIGHT. BUT...IT APPEARS THAT THE STEEPEST LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY PASS JUST NORTH OF THE REGION INTO COASTAL BRITISH COLUMBIA. ..RACY.. 12/12/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Dec 12 05:44:53 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 12 Dec 2004 00:44:53 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200412120547.iBC5lF922463@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 120503 SWODY2 SPC AC 120502 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1102 PM CST SAT DEC 11 2004 VALID 131200Z - 141200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS/FORECAST... THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH EXPECTED TO EVOLVE ACROSS THE ERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY SUNDAY WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD ON MONDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM LOCATED NEAR 35N/135W TRANSLATES TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A STRONG COLD FRONT IN WAKE OF THE ERN WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SERN/GULF STATES MONDAY AS A 1040 MB HIGH BUILDS SWD FROM THE NRN ROCKIES. THE AIR MASS BOTH AHEAD AND BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE TOO STABLE TO GENERATE DEEP MOIST CONVECTION ON MONDAY. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES MIGHT BE POSSIBLE DOWNWIND OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY MONDAY BEFORE EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS START TO FALL LATER IN THE DAY. OTHERWISE...POST FRONTAL CONVECTION MAY INCREASE WEST OF THE CASCADES LATE MONDAY NIGHT. BUT...IT APPEARS THAT THE STEEPEST LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY PASS JUST NORTH OF THE REGION INTO COASTAL BRITISH COLUMBIA. ..RACY.. 12/12/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Dec 12 17:09:43 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 12 Dec 2004 12:09:43 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200412121712.iBCHC3904039@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 121710 SWODY2 SPC AC 121708 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1108 AM CST SUN DEC 12 2004 VALID 131200Z - 141200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... STRONG...FAST MOVING SURFACE AND COLD UPPER LOW TRACKING ESEWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY WILL MOVE NEWD ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY. ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH WITH THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE ERN STATES...AS SIGNIFICANT UPSTREAM HEIGHT RISES /120-150 METER/ ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NRN PLAINS INTO CENTRAL CANADA AND WRN GREAT LAKES AREA. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEW ENGLAND LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST AND ALSO INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO EARLY IN THE PERIOD...AS A 1045 MB SURFACE HIGH BUILDS SWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. AIR MASS ACROSS MUCH OF THE COUNTRY WILL BE TOO STABLE TO GENERATE DEEP MOIST CONVECTION. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE IN LEE OF LE/LO WHERE STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND COLD EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS WILL SUPPORT A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WITH CONVECTIVE SNOW BANDS. THIS THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH MONDAY AFTERNOON AS EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS BECOME TOO WARM FOR CHARGE SEPARATION. ..PETERS.. 12/12/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Dec 13 05:16:42 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 13 Dec 2004 00:16:42 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200412130519.iBD5J2925668@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 130517 SWODY2 SPC AC 130515 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1115 PM CST SUN DEC 12 2004 VALID 141200Z - 151200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS/FORECAST... UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL BECOME PROGRESSIVE ON TUESDAY. LONGWAVE TROUGH ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE EWD LATE TUESDAY AS THE LAST IN A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES DIGS INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. UPSTREAM...RIDGING ACROSS THE WRN STATES WILL SHIFT EWD INTO THE PLAINS AS THE NEXT WAVE...CURRENTLY APPROACHING 135W... MOVES TO THE PAC NW/NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION BY EARLY TUESDAY AND TO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS/CNTRL ROCKIES BY 12Z/15. CP AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO BE REINFORCED IN WAKE OF THE ERN TROUGH THROUGH TUESDAY...PRECLUDING DEEP MOIST CONVECTION. WARM ADVECTION REGIME AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING PAC NW TROUGH WILL INCREASE FROM THE CNTRL ROCKIES TO THE NRN PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...MOISTURE/ INSTABILITY THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL BE MINIMAL AND VERY LOW TSTM PROBABILITIES WILL RESULT. ..RACY.. 12/13/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Dec 13 17:58:05 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 13 Dec 2004 12:58:05 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200412131800.iBDI0N916650@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 131637 SWODY2 SPC AC 131636 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1036 AM CST MON DEC 13 2004 VALID 141200Z - 151200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CNTRL U.S. WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SEWD THROUGH TUESDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES TOWARD THE ERN STATES. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH DRY AND STABLE CP AIR PREVAILING OVER MUCH OF THE NATION. ..DIAL.. 12/13/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Dec 14 05:26:23 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 14 Dec 2004 00:26:23 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200412140528.iBE5Sc930154@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 140526 SWODY2 SPC AC 140525 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1125 PM CST MON DEC 13 2004 VALID 151200Z - 161200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS/FORECAST... AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH AMERICA ON WEDNESDAY. UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE ERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY WEDNESDAY. AS A LARGE SCALE RIDGE BUILDS ALONG THE PAC COAST...A POSITIVE-TILT TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE FROM THE UPPER MS VLY TO THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION. A RENEWED CP AIR MASS WILL SPREAD SEWD IN WAKE OF THIS TROUGH...REACHING A WI-IA-MO-OK-CNTRL TX LINE BY 12Z/16. LIMITED MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL PRECLUDE TSTMS PROBABILITIES. ELSEWHERE...RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF A 1035 MB HIGH OVER THE SERN STATES WILL INCREASE ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS WITH A STRENGTHENING COASTAL TROUGH OFF THE S TX COASTLINE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER WILL GRADUALLY MOISTEN AND ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY CAUSE A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BUT...PROSPECTS FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION SEEM SLIM ATTM OVER S TX. ..RACY.. 12/14/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Dec 14 16:38:33 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 14 Dec 2004 11:38:33 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200412141640.iBEGek907258@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 141639 SWODY2 SPC AC 141638 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1038 AM CST TUE DEC 14 2004 VALID 151200Z - 161200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... THE UPPER TROUGH NOW OVER THE ERN U.S. WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BY EARLY TUESDAY WHILE AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS SSEWD THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND INTO PLAINS. THE LARGE SURFACE RIDGE NOW CENTERED OVER THE PLAINS WILL SHIFT INTO THE SERN STATES AND MAINTAIN AN INFLUX OF CP AIR INTO THE GULF. ...CNTRL ROCKIES.. COLD AIR ALOFT...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND FORCING FOR ASCENT ACCOMPANYING THE SEWD MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN/CNTRL ROCKIES. HOWEVER...VERY MARGINAL INSTABILITY SUGGESTS ANY LIGHTNING ACTIVITY WILL BE VERY ISOLATED AT BEST. ..DIAL.. 12/14/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Dec 15 05:26:07 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 15 Dec 2004 00:26:07 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200412150528.iBF5SI929907@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 150526 SWODY2 SPC AC 150525 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1125 PM CST TUE DEC 14 2004 VALID 161200Z - 171200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS/FORECAST... SHORT TERM MODELS ARE STILL OFFERING DIFFERENT OUTCOMES WITH RESPECT TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE CNTRL/ERN PARTS OF NORTH AMERICA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. 00Z ETA REMAINS STRONGER AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH SRN EXTENT OF THE TROUGH AND IS THUS MORE AGGRESSIVE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE COASTAL TROUGH OFF SRN TX/SRN LA. IN EITHER SOLUTION...HOWEVER...RETURN FLOW IS APT TO ADVECT ONLY SLIGHTLY MODIFIED CP AIR MASS NWD INTO THE MID/UPPER TX COAST AND SRN LA ON THURSDAY. OTHER THAN SCATTERED...WARM ADVECTION DERIVED SHOWERS/RAIN ALONG THE COAST...DEEP MOIST CONVECTION WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE...PRECLUDING TSTM PROBABILITIES ATTM. ELSEWHERE...GENERALLY STABLE CONDITIONS WILL PRECLUDE TSTMS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS. ..RACY.. 12/15/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Dec 15 17:27:14 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 15 Dec 2004 12:27:14 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200412151729.iBFHTN913347@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 151726 SWODY2 SPC AC 151725 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1125 AM CST WED DEC 15 2004 VALID 161200Z - 171200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SE TX THROUGH SRN LA... SLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS ERN TX TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES SEWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS. THIS SHOULD ACCELERATE THE RETURN OF MODIFYING GULF AIR INTO PARTS OF SE TX AND SRN LA. SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP NEWD INTO SERN TX TONIGHT AND SRN LA THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING WARM ADVECTION AND LIFT ACCOMPANYING THE LOW LEVEL JET. WITH ONLY MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED UNDERNEATH MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...IT APPEARS THE AMOUNT OF CAPE THAT CAN DEVELOP INLAND MAY NOT BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT CONVECTION DEEP ENOUGH FOR LIGHTNING. THOUGH ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES MAY BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST...IT APPEARS MOST OF THE CONVECTION DEEP ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN LIGHTNING SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE. ..DIAL.. 12/15/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Dec 16 05:26:20 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 16 Dec 2004 00:26:20 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200412160528.iBG5SR907879@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 160526 SWODY2 SPC AC 160525 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1125 PM CST WED DEC 15 2004 VALID 171200Z - 181200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS/FORECAST... UPPER TROUGH EXPECTED TO EVOLVE OVER THE ERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY ON THURSDAY WILL BE REINFORCED BY A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS THROUGH FRIDAY. AIR MASS OVER MOST OF THE COUNTRY WILL REMAIN TOO STABLE TO SUPPORT TSTMS ON FRIDAY AS THE MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE REMAINS SITUATED WELL SOUTH ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN GULF BASIN. ..RACY.. 12/16/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Dec 16 16:24:41 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 16 Dec 2004 11:24:41 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200412161626.iBGGQk926721@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 161623 SWODY2 SPC AC 161622 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1022 AM CST THU DEC 16 2004 VALID 171200Z - 181200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH...CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM ONTARIO/WRN GREAT LAKES TO FOUR CORNERS REGION...WILL BE REINFORCED AND DEEPEN ON DAY 2 AS UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGHS CARVE OUT A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH BY 12Z SATURDAY. MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SWD AWAY FROM THE TX/LA COASTS AND ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH AIR MASS ACROSS THE U.S. EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO STABLE TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. COLD FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGH NOW OVER ONTARIO/WRN GREAT LAKES...IS PROGGED TO MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST EARLY DAY 2. CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH COLDER AIR MOVING EWD ATOP RELATIVELY WARMER GULF STREAM WATERS WILL SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS WELL EAST OF THE ERN SEABOARD. ..PETERS.. 12/16/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Dec 17 05:36:39 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 17 Dec 2004 00:36:39 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200412170538.iBH5ch908208@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 170536 SWODY2 SPC AC 170535 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1135 PM CST THU DEC 16 2004 VALID 181200Z - 191200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... OVERALL UPPER AIR PATTERN TO REMAIN GENERALLY UNCHANGED THIS PERIOD WITH LARGE...DEEPENING TROUGH REMAINING OVER THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE CONUS AND A RIDGE PERSISTING OVER THE WEST. THOUGH SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN WRN RIDGE LATE IN THE PERIOD...TROUGH AXIS SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH 19/12Z. WITH REINFORCING SURGE OF CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS THE ERN U.S. AND HIGH PRESSURE AT BOTH THE SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER THE WEST...LITTLE THREAT FOR THUNDER APPEARS TO EXIST THIS PERIOD. ..GOSS.. 12/17/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Dec 17 17:38:28 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 17 Dec 2004 12:38:28 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200412171740.iBHHeU916388@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 171724 SWODY2 SPC AC 171723 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1123 AM CST FRI DEC 17 2004 VALID 181200Z - 191200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER TROUGH BECOMING BETTER DEFINED OVER THE ERN U.S. DURING THE DAY 1 PERIOD WILL DEEPEN ON DAY 2 AS A PORTION OF THE ARCTIC VORTEX MOVES SWD TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION. 12Z ETA/GFS AGREE THAT THE ERN TROUGH WILL DEEPEN...BUT THE GFS INDICATED A DEEPER TROUGH THAN THE ETA BY 12Z SUNDAY. SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH PORTION OF ARCTIC VORTEX IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NRN GREAT LAKES BY 19/00Z AND THEN TRACK ESEWD TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. NWLY WINDS IN THE WAKE THIS SURFACE LOW AND TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD ARCTIC AIR MASS /-20 TO -26 AT 850 MB/ SSEWD ACROSS LAKES SUPERIOR/MICHIGAN/HURON BY 12Z SUNDAY. A CONTINUED INFLUX OF STABLE CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR MASS SWD ACROSS CONUS INTO GULF OF MEXICO WILL RESULT IN MINIMAL TSTM THREATS OVER THE COUNTRY. ONE EXCEPTION TO THIS NULL FORECAST IS DOWNWIND OF LAKES SUPERIOR AND MICHIGAN LATE IN THE DAY 2 PERIOD ASSOCIATED WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW. ETA/ETAKF POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BECOME DEEP ENOUGH WITH STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AS THE COLD AIR SPREADS SSEWD ATOP WARM LAKE TEMPERATURES /LS AT 4-5C AND 7C ACROSS SRN LM/ PER LATEST NOAA COASTWATCH DATA ANALYSIS. THUS...A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE HEAVIEST LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS DOWNWIND OF LAKES SUPERIOR AND MICHIGAN SATURDAY NIGHT. ..PETERS.. 12/17/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Dec 18 06:06:15 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 18 Dec 2004 01:06:15 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200412180608.iBI68F931994@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 180606 SWODY2 SPC AC 180605 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1205 AM CST SAT DEC 18 2004 VALID 191200Z - 201200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE ERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EWD THIS PERIOD...WHILE SECOND FEATURE INITIALLY COMING ONSHORE ACROSS WRN CANADA WILL BEGIN EXPANDING / DIGGING SEWD ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES WITH TIME. DESPITE PRESENCE OF STRONG SURFACE TROUGH IN LEE OF THE ROCKIES AND A COLD FRONT DROPPING SEWD ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES / NRN PLAINS AHEAD OF WRN UPPER FEATURE...DRY CONTINENTAL AIRMASS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE CONUS. THEREFORE...LITTLE THREAT FOR THUNDER IS ANTICIPATED. ..GOSS.. 12/18/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Dec 18 17:29:42 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 18 Dec 2004 12:29:42 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200412181731.iBIHVfla030947@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 181729 SWODY2 SPC AC 181728 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1128 AM CST SAT DEC 18 2004 VALID 191200Z - 201200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE ERN U.S. WILL DEEPEN AS A PORTION OF THE ARCTIC VORTEX...WHICH WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY...IS EXPECTED TO DIG SEWD OVER THE TN VALLEY TO CAROLINAS BY 12Z MONDAY. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO SHIFT EWD AS UPSTREAM PACIFIC TROUGH BREAKS DOWN RIDGE LOCATED ACROSS WRN NORTH AMERICA. ...GREAT LAKES... A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE BEGINNING OF DAY 2 ALONG/DOWNWIND OF LAKE MI FROM WRN LOWER MI INTO NWRN IND WHERE CONVECTIVE SNOW BANDS SHOULD STILL BE DEEP ENOUGH FOR LIGHTNING PRODUCTION. HOWEVER...THIS THREAT WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. SHORT WAVE RIDGING ACROSS WRN GREAT LAKES IN WAKE OF ARCTIC TROUGH WILL RESULT IN RISING HEIGHTS/DECREASING BOUNDARY LAYER DEPTH FOR CONVECTIVE SNOW BAND POTENTIAL IN LEE OF LS/LM. COLD AIR ADVECTION PER NLY WINDS DEVELOPING FROM THE SFC-700 MB ACROSS LH/LE IN THE WAKE OF ARCTIC SURFACE FRONT WILL SUPPORT INCREASING SNOW BAND THREAT SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CLOUD DEPTH MAY BE DEEP ENOUGH FOR A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO...BUT OVERALL THREAT/AREAL COVERAGE DOES NOT WARRANT A TSTM OUTLOOK. ...MID ATLANTIC REGION... ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE E/SE ACROSS THE ERN STATES SUNDAY AND OFF THE ERN SEABOARD LATE SUNDAY. STRONG HEIGHT FALLS ALONG/OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ASSOCIATED WITH DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH WILL INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS OFFSHORE BY LATE DAY 2. INCREASED UVVS IN THIS REGION COMBINED WITH COLD AIR SPREADING EWD ATOP RELATIVELY WARMER ATLANTIC WATERS SHOULD SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM THREAT OFFSHORE. ..PETERS.. 12/18/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Dec 19 04:48:57 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 18 Dec 2004 23:48:57 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200412190450.iBJ4orIB011217@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 190449 SWODY2 SPC AC 190448 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1048 PM CST SAT DEC 18 2004 VALID 201200Z - 211200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE E COAST THIS PERIOD WHILE SECOND FEATURE DIGS SEWD FROM THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...A LARGE / BROAD TROUGH IS FORECAST TO EXTEND ACROSS THE ENTIRE CONUS. AT THE SURFACE...DEEP LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS ONTARIO...WHILE STRONG COLD FRONT SURGES SEWD FROM THE NRN ROCKIES / NRN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES / MID MS VALLEY / SRN PLAINS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. PARTIALLY-MODIFIED BOUNDARY-LAYER AIRMASS IS FORECAST TO BEGIN RETURNING NWD INTO THE S CENTRAL U.S. FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AS SURFACE HIGH RETREATS EWD. HOWEVER...AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION ACROSS COASTAL TX / LA WILL LIKELY BE INSUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. ELSEWHERE...STABLE LOWER TROPOSPHERE WILL REMAIN UNSUPPORTIVE OF DEEP MOIST CONVECTION. ..GOSS.. 12/19/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Dec 19 17:30:21 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 19 Dec 2004 12:30:21 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200412191732.iBJHWGex012907@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 191729 SWODY2 SPC AC 191728 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1128 AM CST SUN DEC 19 2004 VALID 201200Z - 211200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... CURRENT WV IMAGERY SHOWED PACIFIC TROUGH BREAKING DOWN THE UPPER RIDGE...THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE ACROSS WRN CANADA INTO THE PAC NW. THIS TROUGH WILL TRACK ESEWD ON MONDAY TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY REGION...AS HEIGHTS RISE UPSTREAM OVER THE NERN PACIFIC TO SERN AK. THIS BUILDING RIDGE WILL ALLOW A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TO MOVE SSEWD OVER THE GREAT BASIN/ROCKIES...CARVING OUT A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS BY 12Z TUESDAY. AT THE SURFACE...LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEAD UPPER TROUGH WILL TRACK FROM SRN MANITOBA TO LAKE SUPERIOR THIS PERIOD WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING E/SE ACROSS THE MS VALLEY/PLAINS STATES. THIS FRONT SHOULD REACH A LINE FROM LM SSWWD TO THE OZARKS TO FAR NRN TX BY 12Z TUESDAY. SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE FAR WRN GULF ON MONDAY AS HEIGHTS FALL IN ADVANCE OF THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS THE COASTAL AREA OF TX AND NEWD INTO ERN TX/LOWER MS VALLEY IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT. THE QUALITY OF THIS MOISTURE RETURN IS EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT MEAGER GIVEN THE RECENT INTRUSIONS OF CP AIR MASSES DEEP INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO BASIN. THE ETA APPEARS TO BE TOO AGGRESSIVE SHOWING SURFACE DEWPOINTS AROUND 60 TO THE SRN/CENTRAL TX COAST BY 12Z TUESDAY. DESPITE A PLUME OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SPREADING ESEWD OVER THIS AREA...INCREASING TEMPERATURES IN THE 800-600 MB LAYER WILL EFFECTIVELY CAP THE LOW-LEVEL DESTABILIZATION WHICH WILL BE MARKED BY LOWER 50S SURFACE DEWPOINTS REACHING THE TX COAST/SRN LA. ..PETERS.. 12/19/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Dec 20 05:44:37 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 20 Dec 2004 00:44:37 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200412200546.iBK5kU5A026664@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 200543 SWODY2 SPC AC 200542 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1142 PM CST SUN DEC 19 2004 VALID 211200Z - 221200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PSX 35 S FTW 20 SW ADM 30 W MLC 50 NE LIT 45 NNE MKL 20 WSW BWG 50 SSE BNA 20 WNW TCL 50 SE MEI 10 SW PNS. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE / BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CONUS IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY / DEEPEN THIS PERIOD AS A COUPLE OF SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS DIG CYCLONICALLY SEWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES TOWARD THE SRN PLAINS. AS THESE SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS APPROACH...SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE SRN PLAINS SHOULD STRENGTHEN. SRN PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO PERSIST FROM NERN TX ENEWD INTO THE TN VALLEY THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD...AND WILL LIKELY FOCUS SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWER / THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS / LOWER MS VALLEY REGION AS UPPER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES. THOUGH SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED / SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE THROUGH THE PERIOD...INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BE LIMITED -- PARTICULARLY AWAY FROM THE GULF COAST INVOF SURFACE BOUNDARY. THOUGH A LIMITED SEVERE THREAT MAY EVOLVE ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON / EVENING...QUESTIONS REGARDING AVAILABLE INSTABILITY PRECLUDE THE INTRODUCTION OF SEVERE PROBABILITIES ATTM. ..GOSS.. 12/20/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Dec 21 05:54:28 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 21 Dec 2004 00:54:28 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200412210556.iBL5uuar025665@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 210555 SWODY2 SPC AC 210552 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1152 PM CST MON DEC 20 2004 VALID 221200Z - 231200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE GLS 40 NW LCH 10 SE ESF 40 SSW JAN 35 WSW TCL 30 S ANB 10 NE ABY 30 WNW CTY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE CRP 30 NW VCT 45 SW CLL 40 ESE CLL 10 SSW LFK 25 W SHV 40 E ELD 25 SW UOX 50 N MSL 40 NNW CSV 35 S 5I3 PSK 15 SSW DAN 35 WSW FLO 25 WSW SSI 40 SSE CTY. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION... ...SYNOPSIS... HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS THE CONUS THIS PERIOD...WITH LARGE-SCALE TROUGH AND CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE CONUS. SHORT-WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN LARGER-SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW -- INITIALLY FORECAST NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION -- WILL SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE SRN PLAINS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT INITIALLY FORECAST FROM THE UPPER OH / TN VALLEYS SWWD INTO LA / SERN TX SHOULD SHARPEN / MOVE EWD AHEAD OF UPPER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH...AND IS EXPECTED TO REACH A POSITION ROUGHLY ALONG THE APPALACHIANS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. ...UPPER TX COAST EWD TO SWRN GA / THE FL PANHANDLE... RAIN / THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ACROSS PARTS OF ERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION IN ZONE OF STRONG QG FORCING AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH / JET STREAK. THOUGH SLY FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES AHEAD OF FRONT...LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS OVER THE NRN GULF REMAINS INCOMPLETELY MODIFIED...WITH GENERALLY LOW TO MID 50S DEWPOINTS OBSERVED ATTM. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY OVERDONE WITH DEGREE OF MOISTURE RETURN...AND THIS COMBINED WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF WIDESPREAD CLOUDS / PRECIPITATION SUGGEST ONLY LIMITED DESTABILIZATION LIKELY. NONETHELESS...DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD SHOULD INCREASE WITH TIME OVER THE WARM SECTOR...BECOMING SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED / ROTATING CONVECTION. THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT RISK ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...WITH PRIMARY THREATS BEING LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO. THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED HOWEVER DUE TO OVERALL LACK OF INSTABILITY. ..GOSS.. 12/21/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Dec 21 06:33:08 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 21 Dec 2004 01:33:08 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200412210635.iBL6Zasw008187@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 210633 SWODY2 SPC AC 210632 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1232 AM CST TUE DEC 21 2004 VALID 221200Z - 231200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE GLS 40 NW LCH 10 SE ESF 40 SSW JAN 35 WSW TCL 30 S ANB 10 NE ABY 30 WNW CTY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE CRP 30 NW VCT 45 SW CLL 40 ESE CLL 10 SSW LFK 25 W SHV 40 E ELD 25 SW UOX 50 N MSL 40 NNW CSV 35 S 5I3 PSK 15 SSW DAN 35 WSW FLO 25 WSW SSI 40 SSE CTY. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION... ...SYNOPSIS... HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS THE CONUS THIS PERIOD...WITH LARGE-SCALE TROUGH AND CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE CONUS. SHORT-WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN LARGER-SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW -- INITIALLY FORECAST NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION -- WILL SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE SRN PLAINS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT INITIALLY FORECAST FROM THE UPPER OH / TN VALLEYS SWWD INTO LA / SERN TX SHOULD SHARPEN / MOVE EWD AHEAD OF UPPER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH...AND IS EXPECTED TO REACH A POSITION ROUGHLY ALONG THE APPALACHIANS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. ...UPPER TX COAST EWD TO SWRN GA / THE FL PANHANDLE... RAIN / THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ACROSS PARTS OF ERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION IN ZONE OF STRONG QG FORCING AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH / JET STREAK. THOUGH SLY FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES AHEAD OF FRONT...LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS OVER THE NRN GULF REMAINS INCOMPLETELY MODIFIED...WITH GENERALLY LOW TO MID 50S DEWPOINTS OBSERVED ATTM. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY OVERDONE WITH DEGREE OF MOISTURE RETURN...AND THIS COMBINED WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF WIDESPREAD CLOUDS / PRECIPITATION SUGGEST ONLY LIMITED DESTABILIZATION LIKELY. NONETHELESS...DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD SHOULD INCREASE WITH TIME OVER THE WARM SECTOR...BECOMING SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED / ROTATING CONVECTION. THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT RISK ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...WITH PRIMARY THREATS BEING LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO. THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED HOWEVER DUE TO OVERALL LACK OF INSTABILITY. ..GOSS.. 12/21/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Dec 21 17:06:11 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 21 Dec 2004 12:06:11 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200412211708.iBLH8bCo020817@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 211706 SWODY2 SPC AC 211705 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1105 AM CST TUE DEC 21 2004 VALID 221200Z - 231200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 E PSX 40 WNW HOU POE ESF MEI SEM MGM DHN MAI AQQ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSE CRP 35 ENE LRD COT SAT JKL 5I3 40 SW BLF 40 SSE TLH. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS GULF COASTAL PLAIN FROM SE TX TO WRN FL PANHANDLE... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF WRN/CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH DAY-2...RESULTING IN PRONOUNCED LONGWAVE TROUGH DOWNSTREAM FROM NERN PACIFIC REX BLOCK. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED SWD PLUNGE OF SEASONALLY COLD AIR MASS NOW COVERING MUCH OF CENTRAL PLAINS...UPPER MS VALLEY AND SRN HIGH PLAINS. ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT SHOULD REACH CENTRAL/SRN APPALACHIANS...NWRN GA...AND SRN AL BY END OF PERIOD. MEANWHILE...AIR MASS MODIFICATION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WARM SECTOR...AIDED BY MID-UPPER 70S F SST OBSERVED IN CENTRAL/SRN OPEN GULF. BY DAY-2...NEAR EQUILIBRIUM DEW POINTS OF UPPER 60S F ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OPEN GULF...WITH MID 60S OVER SHELF WATERS...AND LOW-MID 60S POSSIBLE OVER COASTAL AREAS. ...GULF COAST STATES... SCATTERED-NUMEROUS TSTMS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT BEGINNING OF PERIOD ACROSS PORTIONS SW TX AND LA..IN LOW LEVEL WAA REGIME...ALONG/AHEAD OF INITIAL COLD FRONT. REF SPC DAY-1 OUTLOOK FOR DETAILS. EXPECT ASSOCIATED BAND OF CONVECTION TO SHIFT EWD ACROSS NRN GULF AND ADJACENT COASTAL AREAS...WITH FAVORABLE SHEAR AND INFLOW LAYER BUOYANCY TO SUPPORT SEVERE POTENTIAL. MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING GUSTS...WITH ISOLATED HAIL POSSIBLE. A FEW SUPERCELLS MAY FORM AHEAD OF FRONTAL BAND OVER GULF...MOVING ASHORE THEN WEAKENING INLAND AS THEY ENCOUNTER WEAKER INSTABILITY. TORNADO PROBABILITIES THEREFORE SHOULD BE GREATEST ALONG IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS WHERE RICHEST BOUNDARY LAYER THETAE WILL BE...AND LIFTED PARCELS CLOSEST TO BEING SFC-BASED. PRECURSORY CLOUDS/PRECIP AND SELY BOUNDARY LAYER TRAJECTORIES FROM INCOMPLETELY MODIFIED CONTINENTAL AIR MASS WILL EACH CONTRIBUTE TO WEAKENING INSTABILITY WITH INLAND EXTENT. HOWEVER...BECAUSE OF STRENGTH/DEPTH OF BAROCLINIC ZONE...SLAB OF FORCED FRONTAL ASCENT MAY YIELD NARROW AND WELL DEFINED SQUALL LINE ACROSS PORTIONS INLAND MS/AL...TN AND NWRN GA...EMBEDDED WITHIN BROADER PRECIP AREA. A FEW GUSTS WITH SUCH A LINE MAY REACH SVR LIMITS...WITH OCCASIONAL WIND DAMAGE POSSIBLE. ..EDWARDS.. 12/21/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Dec 22 05:41:17 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 22 Dec 2004 00:41:17 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200412220543.iBM5hgBD018549@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 220541 SWODY2 SPC AC 220540 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1140 PM CST TUE DEC 21 2004 VALID 231200Z - 241200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM AQQ 25 NNW ABY 35 ENE MCN 25 SW CLT 10 N RDU 30 ESE ECG ...CONT... MLB 15 S FMY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE CEW 15 N LGC 15 SSE LOZ HLG 45 NNE UCA PWM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THE SERN CONUS... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CONUS IS FORECAST TO BECOME EVEN MORE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED THIS PERIOD AS IT MOVES SLOWLY EWD. INITIAL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH -- EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE TN VALLEY AT THE START OF THE PERIOD -- WILL LIFT NEWD AWAY FROM THE MORE FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT FORECAST OVER THE SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER...COLD FRONT WILL NONETHELESS MOVE STEADILY EWD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COAST STATES AND EVENTUALLY OFFSHORE. TRAILING PORTION OF THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS S FL AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. ...ATLANTIC COASTAL STATES FROM NC SWD TO FL... THOUGH STRONGER UPPER FORCING IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NW OF THE REGION...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COASTAL REGION THIS PERIOD. LOW 60S DEWPOINTS SHOULD SPREAD NWD INTO THE ERN CAROLINAS AHEAD OF FRONT...BUT WEAK LAPSE RATES DUE TO CLOUDS / ONGOING PRECIPITATION ALONG FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR DESTABILIZATION. NONETHELESS...DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD WILL REMAIN STRONG ACROSS THIS REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD -- PARTICULARLY FROM NRN FL NWD. THEREFORE...DESPITE RELATIVELY LIMITED INSTABILITY...A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS OR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO WITH A FEW STRONGER STORMS / STORM SEGMENTS WILL EXIST -- MAINLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF GA AND THE CAROLINAS. ..GOSS.. 12/22/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Dec 24 17:33:52 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 24 Dec 2004 12:33:52 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200412241736.iBOHaO8l012604@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 241734 SWODY2 SPC AC 241733 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1133 AM CST FRI DEC 24 2004 VALID 251200Z - 261200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNW PIE 20 SE DAB. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SOUTH FL... A STALLED FRONT OVER SOUTH FL WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY AS AN UPPER-LOW APPROACHES QUICKLY FROM THE WEST. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS A SFC LOW ORGANIZES AND MOVES EWD ACROSS THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE AND ASCENT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL AID STORM DEVELOPMENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON. STORM COVERAGE SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION SATURDAY EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR 00Z SUNDAY ACROSS SOUTH FL SHOW VERY STRONG DEEP SHEAR PROFILES. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A FAST STORM MOVEMENT AND A FEW ORGANIZED CELLS. THE SFC LOW WILL LIKELY MOVE ACROSS THE PENINSULA DURING THE EVENING HOURS WHICH WILL PULL SFC DEWPOINTS FROM AROUND 70 F NWD. THIS COMBINED WITH LOW-LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL RESULT IN A MARGINAL TORNADO THREAT. IN ADDITION...STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CREATE A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...WARM AIR ALOFT AND RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP THE SEVERE POTENTIAL VERY ISOLATED. ..BROYLES.. 12/24/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Dec 25 05:30:24 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 25 Dec 2004 00:30:24 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200412250532.iBP5WsT0001198@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 250531 SWODY2 SPC AC 250530 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1130 PM CST FRI DEC 24 2004 VALID 261200Z - 271200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE SRQ 35 SE DAB. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST... MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY MOVING INTO S TX IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE INTO AN OPEN WAVE DURING THE DAY 1 PERIOD AS IT TRANSLATES ENEWD ACROSS THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE WRN FL COAST AT THE START OF THE FORECAST...PRIOR TO ACCELERATING RAPIDLY NEWD AHEAD OF STRONGER NRN STREAM TROUGH SHIFTING EWD ACROSS THE NERN STATES. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...PRIMARY SURFACE LOW ATTENDANT TO THE SRN STREAM DISTURBANCE /INITIALLY OFF THE SC COAST/ WILL DEVELOP NEWD ALONG GULF STREAM WHILE TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHES QUICKLY SEWD THROUGH THE SRN FL PENINSULA. TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT THE ONSET OF THE DAY 2 PERIOD FROM VICINITY OF SURFACE LOW SWWD ALONG COLD FRONT INTO THE CNTRL/SRN FL PENINSULA WHERE A FEW LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ANY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL LIKELY REMAIN OFFSHORE WHERE BEST COMBINATION OF FORCING...WIND SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL COEXIST. ..MEAD.. 12/25/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Dec 25 17:28:13 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 25 Dec 2004 12:28:13 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200412251730.iBPHUh1m001783@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 251728 SWODY2 SPC AC 251727 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1127 AM CST SAT DEC 25 2004 VALID 261200Z - 271200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 WSW MIA 35 ENE ORL. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... A VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT QUICKLY EWD ACROSS FL TONIGHT...DRIVING A SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD FRONT OFF THE FL COAST SUNDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL RAPIDLY COME TO AN END ALONG THE ERN FL PENINSULA JUST AFTER DAYBREAK SUNDAY AS DRY AIR ADVECTION INTENSIFIES BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM. ELSEWHERE...A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BECOME ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE CNTRL US MAKING CONDITIONS UNFAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE CONUS ON DAY 2. ..BROYLES.. 12/25/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Dec 26 05:49:19 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 26 Dec 2004 00:49:19 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200412260551.iBQ5pje1006301@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 260549 SWODY2 SPC AC 260548 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1148 PM CST SAT DEC 25 2004 VALID 271200Z - 281200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW SFO 25 ESE MRY 25 E SMX 20 W LAX. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST... AMPLIFICATION OF UPSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF AK WILL RESULT IN A SWD MOVEMENT OF MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW /CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR 46N/134W/ TO OFF THE CA COAST DURING THE DAY 2 PERIOD. MEANWHILE...DOWNSTREAM PATTERN WILL FLATTEN ACROSS THE ERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE NATION AS TROUGH INITIALLY OVER THE NERN STATES MOVES INTO THE ATLANTIC. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...BROAD SURFACE RIDGE FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EWD TOWARD THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. IN THE W...PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ONTO THE CNTRL CA COAST DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS THIS OCCURS...ENHANCED OROGRAPHIC ASCENT IN IMMEDIATE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN SHOWERY PRECIPITATION ALONG WINDWARD SIDE OF THE COASTAL RANGES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT GRADUALLY STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OWING TO CLOSE PROXIMITY OF MID-LEVEL COLD POOL MAY RESULT IN SOME WEAK INSTABILITY AND POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES. ..MEAD.. 12/26/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Dec 26 17:22:25 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 26 Dec 2004 12:22:25 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200412261724.iBQHOo5L031990@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 261722 SWODY2 SPC AC 261722 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1122 AM CST SUN DEC 26 2004 VALID 271200Z - 281200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WNW UKI 10 NW SJC 10 NNE PRB 20 W LAX. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... WATER VAPOR SHOWS A CLOSED OFF UPPER-LOW OFF THE PACIFIC NW COAST WHICH WILL QUICKLY DIG SWD TONIGHT AND SHOULD BE POSITIONED OFF THE COAST OF NRN CA ON MONDAY. STRONG LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IN THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THE NRN AND CNTRL CA COAST SHOW STEEP LAPSE RATES AT 21Z ON MONDAY WITH 500 MB TEMPS OF -23 TO -25 C. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WITH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. OTHERWISE...A BROAD RIDGE ALOFT AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE ERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE US WILL PROVIDE NO SUPPORT FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE DAY 2 PERIOD. ..BROYLES.. 12/26/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Dec 27 05:01:45 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 27 Dec 2004 00:01:45 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200412270504.iBR547ii026779@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 270501 SWODY2 SPC AC 270500 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1100 PM CST SUN DEC 26 2004 VALID 281200Z - 291200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW UKI 45 W SAC 35 ESE SJC 30 ENE PRB 15 ESE BFL 25 NNW DAG 45 ESE IGM 30 SE PRC 40 NE PHX 55 SE PHX 65 SSW TUS. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST... MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE NRN CA COAST IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE INTO AN OPEN WAVE AS IT TRANSLATES EWD INTO CA DURING THE DAY 2 PERIOD. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK PERTURBATION EJECTING NEWD FROM MAIN UPPER SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP INTO THE GREAT BASIN WITH PRIMARY SURFACE LOW APPROACHING THE SRN CA COAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. POCKETS OF WEAK INSTABILITY IN CONJUNCTION WITH LARGE-SCALE FORCING DOWNSTREAM FROM MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND ATTENDANT UPPER JET STREAK WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM SRN CA EWD INTO SRN AZ. DESPITE STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING SHEAR PROFILES AHEAD OF PRIMARY SURFACE LOW OVER THE L.A. BASIN...IT APPEARS THAT INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN QUITE LIMITED WITH NO SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST ATTM. ..MEAD.. 12/27/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Dec 27 16:33:56 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 27 Dec 2004 11:33:56 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200412271636.iBRGaHTK013890@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 271634 SWODY2 SPC AC 271633 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1033 AM CST MON DEC 27 2004 VALID 281200Z - 291200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW UKI 45 W SAC 35 ESE SJC 30 ENE PRB 15 ESE BFL 25 NNW DAG 45 ESE IGM 30 SE PRC 40 NE PHX 55 SE PHX 65 SSW TUS. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER LOW A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES WEST OF SAN FRANCISCO IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN ON TUESDAY AND BEGIN TO TRANSLATE INTO THE WRN STATES AS THE ALEUTIAN UPPER LOW DIGS SEWD. ...SRN CA... LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO STEEPEN ACROSS SRN CA TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INLAND. H5 TEMPERATURES DECREASING INTO THE MID MINUS 20S COUPLED WITH MID 50S SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT THERMAL BUOYANCY TO SUPPORT NUMEROUS TSTMS. STRONG CYCLONIC JET MAX ROTATING INTO THE REGION WILL SUPPLY VERTICAL SHEAR MORE THAN ENOUGH FOR ORGANIZED TSTMS WITH ISOLD SEVERE HAIL POSSIBLE. MOREOVER...THE FAVORED BACKED BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IN THE COASTAL VLYS OF SRN CA WILL AUGMENT LOW-LEVEL HELICITY AND THE RISK OF AN ISOLD WATERSPOUT/TORNADO WILL ALSO EXIST. ..RACY.. 12/27/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Dec 28 06:15:06 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 28 Dec 2004 01:15:06 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200412280617.iBS6HOVn008059@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 280615 SWODY2 SPC AC 280614 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1214 AM CST TUE DEC 28 2004 VALID 291200Z - 301200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 N MRY 40 W BFL 10 E EDW 15 NNW LAS 50 S SGU 20 WNW FLG 30 SSW SOW 20 SW SAD 25 SE FHU. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WSW ALO 50 SSW LSE 25 ESE MSN 10 SE CGX 15 NNE DNV 35 NE ALN 35 NE COU 15 ENE P35 40 WSW ALO. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW /CURRENTLY NEAR 36N/127W/ IS FORECAST TO OPEN AND EJECT NEWD INTO THE NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY 2 PERIOD. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODEL FORECASTS CONTINUE TO SHOW VARYING SOLUTIONS WITH REGARD TO THE INTENSITY AND TRACK OF ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW. LATEST ENSEMBLE MEAN INDICATES SURFACE LOW OVER N-CNTRL NEB BY 30/12Z WHICH STILL APPEARS TO BE A REASONABLE COMPROMISE ATTM...WITH WARM FRONT STRETCHING EWD INTO THE NRN OH VALLEY AND TRAILING COLD FRONT SWWD INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. ...SRN CA INTO AZ... LARGE-SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH EJECTING UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING...SUPPORTING SHOWERY PRECIPITATION ALONG AND BEHIND PACIFIC COLD FRONT. WHILE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL TEND TO LIMIT INSTABILITY...THE DYNAMIC FORCING IN CONJUNCTION WITH MODESTLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES /I.E. APPROACHING 7 C/KM/ SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO POCKETS OF WEAK INSTABILITY AND POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT. ...UPPER MIDWEST... DESPITE LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW...PERSISTENT WAA AND INCREASINGLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN SOME AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION LATE IN THE PERIOD ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN IA INTO IL. HERE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY FOR PARCELS BASED AROUND 850-860 MB. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH WAA REGIME ALONG NOSE OF SWLY 50-6O KT LLJ AXIS...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT. ..MEAD.. 12/28/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Dec 28 17:20:16 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 28 Dec 2004 12:20:16 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200412281722.iBSHMZwB005957@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 281720 SWODY2 SPC AC 281719 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1119 AM CST TUE DEC 28 2004 VALID 291200Z - 301200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ONP 45 NNW MFR 50 WSW MHS 20 SSW RBL 35 ESE SAC 25 N FAT 45 NE BFL 30 NW DAG 40 SW LAS 50 S SGU 35 ESE GCN 30 SSW SOW 20 SW SAD 25 SE FHU. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WSW ALO 45 SW LSE 20 ENE MSN 10 SE CGX 10 WSW DNV 35 SSE SPI 40 SW UIN 40 SSW OTM 40 WSW ALO. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... THE DEEP MID LEVEL LOW JUST OFF THE SRN CA COAST WILL BECOME AN OPEN WAVE /WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED SPEED MAXIMA/ AND EJECT ENEWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES/PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SEWD FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA. STEEP LAPSE RATES/WEAK INSTABILITY WILL ACCOMPANY THE EJECTING CA TROUGH ACROSS THE SW EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WHERE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER TOMORROW ACROSS THE ROCKIES AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INLAND AWAY FROM THE MOISTURE SOURCE AND LOSES AMPLITUDE...THOUGH VERY ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES STILL MAY OCCUR. LATE IN THE PERIOD...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS COASTAL AREAS OF NRN CA/ORE AS THE GULF OF ALASKA TROUGH MOVES INLAND. ELSEWHERE...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NEWD FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO THE MID MS VALLEY IN CONJUNCTION WITH LEE CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NRN PLAINS. ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN A STRONG WAA PATTERN LATE IN THE PERIOD ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY. ..THOMPSON.. 12/28/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Dec 29 06:05:51 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 29 Dec 2004 01:05:51 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200412290608.iBT685Tj007772@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 290605 SWODY2 SPC AC 290604 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1204 AM CST WED DEC 29 2004 VALID 301200Z - 311200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 N CID 15 NW MSN 45 SW MBL 10 ESE GRR 40 SE AZO 25 NNW BMG 10 SW SLO 45 WNW STL 30 S OTM 15 N CID. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY ROUNDING LARGER SCALE ERN PACIFIC TROUGH BASE /NEAR 30N 124W PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/ IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY DURING THE DAY 2 PERIOD AS IT TRANSLATES FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS INTO WRN GREAT LAKES. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP GENERALLY EWD FROM SERN MT...EVENTUALLY OCCLUDING OVER SRN L.S./UP OF MI BY 31/12Z. MEANWHILE...TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EWD INTO THE OH VALLEY AND EXTEND SWWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS BY FRIDAY MORNING. ...UPPER MIDWEST/SRN GREAT LAKES... LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIMITED WITHIN PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR OWING TO PERSISTENT RIDGING ACROSS THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO WITH DEWPOINTS ONLY INCREASING INTO THE 40S TO POSSIBLY 50F. HOWEVER...60-90 M/12 HR 500 MB HEIGHT FALLS DOWNSTREAM FROM APPROACHING TROUGH AND RESULTANT STEEPENING OF MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. TSTMS /LIKELY BASED ABOVE BOUNDARY-LAYER/ ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY POSSIBLE BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING INVOF OF THE MS RIVER WITHIN ZONE OF DEEP CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH SFC-850 MB FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME PROGRESSIVELY MORE ELEVATED WITH TIME AS IT MOVES/DEVELOPS EWD/NEWD INTO PORTIONS OF NWRN IND/SWRN MI. GIVEN THE COOL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES AND STEEP LAPSE RATES...POTENTIAL FOR SOME SMALL HAIL OR GRAUPEL WILL EXIST WITH STRONGEST STORMS. ..MEAD.. 12/29/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Dec 29 17:25:01 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 29 Dec 2004 12:25:01 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200412291727.iBTHRFEB018885@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 291724 SWODY2 SPC AC 291723 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1123 AM CST WED DEC 29 2004 VALID 301200Z - 311200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 N CID 40 SSE CWA 30 NNE PLN 60 ENE APN 70 NNE MTC 50 SSW JXN 25 WSW MTO 40 SSE UIN 40 SW BRL 15 N CID. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER LEVEL LOW NOW MOVING INTO THE WRN STATES WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EJECTING NEWD INTO THE PLAINS STATES THROUGH FRI. ONE SUCH IMPULSE...APPROACHING THE CNTRL CA COAST ATTM...WILL QUICKLY TRANSLATE EWD TO THE FOUR CORNERS BY 12Z THU...THE CORN BELT 00Z FRI AND TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY 12Z FRI. AT THE SURFACE...LEE LOW WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS THE DAKOTAS EARLY THU AND MOVE EWD TO LKSUP BY THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY. ATTACHED LEE TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE PLAINS AND REACH A MI-NW IND-MO LINE BY 12Z/31. A FEW TSTMS MAY DEVELOP VCNTY THIS TROUGH OVERNIGHT THU. ...MIDWEST... PRE-TROUGH WARM SECTOR WILL GRADUALLY MOISTEN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...OWING TO INCREASING SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER SYSTEM. QUALITY OF MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...THOUGH...AS GULF AIR MASS WILL ONLY BE PARTIALLY MODIFIED. AS A RESULT... INSTABILITY WILL BE MEAGER AND PROSPECTS FOR SURFACE-BASED STORMS WILL BE LOW DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. AS STRONG HEIGHT FALLS/STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH BEGIN TO SPREAD EWD THURSDAY NIGHT...WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY/UVV MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW TSTMS THURSDAY NIGHT FROM NRN IL-SRN WI EWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES. TSTMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE...THOUGH WITH COOL THERMODYNAMICS PROFILES...SMALL HAIL MAY OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. ..RACY.. 12/29/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Dec 30 06:25:57 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 30 Dec 2004 01:25:57 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200412300628.iBU6S8Ox011679@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 300625 SWODY2 SPC AC 300624 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1224 AM CST THU DEC 30 2004 VALID 311200Z - 011200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE DTW 25 NW TOL 15 SE GRR 30 WSW HTL 15 ESE APN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 E GAG 50 SSE DDC 25 S RSL 20 E SLN 10 E UMN 55 S HRO 25 ENE PGO 35 NW MLC 50 E GAG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S ONP 25 ENE CEC 45 ENE UKI 35 WNW MER 15 NW PRB 30 SSW PRB. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN IS FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY 2 PERIOD WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TRANSLATING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...AND FROM THE CNTRL CA COAST INTO THE NRN AND CNTRL ROCKIES. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EWD ACROSS THE NERN STATES WITH WWD EXTENSION OF BOUNDARY REMAINING QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS AND ANCHORED TO LOW PRESSURE OVER ERN CO. IN THE W...PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EWD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND DESERT SW. ...CNTRL GREAT LAKES... MODERATELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES /7-7.5 C/KM/ COUPLED WITH FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE REGION MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A FEW ELEVATED TSTMS ON FRIDAY MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF LOWER MI. ANY ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO SERN ONTARIO BY AFTERNOON. ...KS/OK/MO/AR... SLY LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES. ISENTROPIC ASCENT OF RETURNING...MODIFIED GULF AIR MASS ALONG LLJ AXIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND POTENTIAL FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE PERIOD...MAINLY ALONG/S OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ...ORE COAST SWD TO CNTRL CA COAST... COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES OF -28 TO -30 C AT 500 MB AND RESULTANT STEEP LAPSE RATES ON CYCLONIC SIDE OF MID/UPPER-LEVEL JET AXIS MAY SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW TSTMS EARLY IN THE FORECAST ALONG THE COASTAL RANGES. THUNDER POTENTIAL SHOULD DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT OWING TO HEIGHT RISES AND WEAKENING LAPSE RATES WITH PASSAGE OF MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE E. ..MEAD.. 12/30/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Dec 30 17:16:13 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 30 Dec 2004 12:16:13 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200412301718.iBUHINWE019736@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 301712 SWODY2 SPC AC 301711 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1111 AM CST THU DEC 30 2004 VALID 311200Z - 011200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE DTW 15 NW ARB 25 SW MBS 20 E HTL 15 ESE APN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WNW END 25 E LBL 45 NNE GCK 10 ESE RSL 20 E SLN 10 E UMN 55 S HRO 25 ENE PGO 35 NW MLC 50 WNW END. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NE AST 20 ESE CEC 35 E ACV 30 SE RBL 40 E SCK 45 NNE BFL 15 SSE BFL 10 W SMX. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER TROUGH NOW EMERGING ONTO THE CNTRL/NRN HIGH PLAINS WILL DEAMPLIFY AND SHEAR EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND BY NEW YEARS DAY. UPSTREAM COMPLEX UPPER LOW WILL SETTLE SWD ALONG THE PAC NW COAST. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL EJECT EWD FROM THIS SYSTEM...THE STRONGEST OF WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS CA EARLY FRIDAY AND THEN TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY EARLY NEW YEARS DAY. AT THE SURFACE...IN WAKE OF THE FIRST UPPER DISTURBANCE...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SWD THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS FRONT WILL PROBABLY STALL IN THE CNTRL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST AS LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS AHEAD OF THE UPSTREAM FOUR CORNERS TROUGH BY NEW YEARS DAY. ...ERN MI... AS THE SHEARING UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...LARGE SCALE ASCENT COUPLED WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW ELEVATED TSTMS EARLY FRIDAY ACROSS ERN MI. THESE TSTMS WILL MOVE INTO SWRN ONTARIO BY MID-DAY. ...PAC COAST... COLD H5 TEMPERATURES WITHIN CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ALONG THE PAC COAST FROM ORE SWD INTO CNTRL CA ON FRIDAY. HIGHEST TSTM POTENTIAL WILL BE EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS WARMING MIDLEVELS/HEIGHT RISES QUICKLY TRANSLATE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. ...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS... LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BACK ACROSS THE SRN/CNTRL PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT OWING TO APPROACH OF THE UPSTREAM TROUGH. STRONGEST ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD EVOLVE ACROSS SRN KS/NRN OK WHERE ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A FEW TSTMS. ..RACY.. 12/30/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Dec 31 06:31:02 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 31 Dec 2004 01:31:02 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200412310633.iBV6X9H6019408@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 310631 SWODY2 SPC AC 310630 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1230 AM CST FRI DEC 31 2004 VALID 011200Z - 021200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW CLM 25 E AST 25 SW EUG 10 NW CEC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E PSX 35 WSW LFK DAL 60 WSW SPS LTS DDC OLU MCW DBQ MTO 20 W EVV MKL GWO 30 E MCB 35 SE HUM. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... LITTLE CHANGE TO THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN IS FORECAST THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH POLAR LOW REMAINING CENTERED NORTHEAST OF HUDSON BAY...WHILE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO/CARIBBEAN. A BROAD TROUGH WILL ALSO PERSIST IN THE SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES AND THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE POLAR WESTERLIES...FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC THROUGH THE WESTERN/NORTHERN U.S...WITH A NUMBER OF EMBEDDED...PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVES. ONE SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS ALREADY PROGRESSING OUT OF WESTERN TROUGH INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGION. MODELS SUGGEST THIS FEATURE WILL ACCELERATE ACROSS NORTH ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS BY EARLY SATURDAY...AHEAD OF SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE ROTATING AROUND CANADIAN VORTEX. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOUTHWARD SURGE OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST STATES. DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS EXIST WITH HOW THIS IS HANDLED...BUT SHALLOW SURFACE FRONT APPEARS LIKELY AS FAR SOUTH AS THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS BY EARLY SATURDAY. THIS AIR MASS MAY BE SLOWER TO MODIFY THAN INDICATED BY MODELS...BUT BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME FOCUS FOR ANOTHER DEVELOPING SURFACE CYCLONE AS NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTS OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. ...CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... LOW-LEVEL MOIST TONGUE WITH MID 50S/LOWER 60S DEW POINTS IS ALREADY PRESENT ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST WEAK DESTABILIZATION SUFFICIENT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION INCREASES IN ASSOCIATION WITH DEVELOPING SURFACE WAVE. THIS APPEARS MOST LIKELY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM PARTS OF EASTERN KANSAS INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. STRONGER ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND LIFTING TO LEVELS OF FREE CONVECTION APPEAR LIKELY TO OCCUR ABOVE SHALLOW SURFACE-BASED INVERSION LAYER. GIVEN WEAK CAPE...THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE THREAT DESPITE LIKELIHOOD OF FAVORABLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. ...SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... SOUTHERN FRINGE OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH MAY WEAKEN MID-LEVEL INHIBITION SUFFICIENTLY FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO THE SOUTH OF SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE. FRONT WILL SURGE DEEPER INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT... IN WAKE OF SURFACE LOW LIFTING INTO THE MID/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP NEAR DRY LINE/COLD FRONT LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN TEXAS/OKLAHOMA. HOWEVER...BETTER CHANCE FOR ACTIVITY APPEARS TO EXIST TO THE EAST LATER SATURDAY NIGHT...IN PROXIMITY TO SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS SHIFTING INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WITH CAPE LIMITED DUE TO MARGINAL MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...TIMING OF DEVELOPMENT MAINLY AFTER DARK...AFTER ONSET OF RADIATIONAL COOLING IN BOUNDARY LAYER...CURRENTLY IS EXPECTED TO MINIMIZE SEVERE THREAT. ...WESTERN/CENTRAL GULF COAST... FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES COULD ENHANCE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME NEAR UPPER TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTAL AREAS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN WEAK LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND CONTINUING PRESENCE OF SURFACE RIDGING PROGGED BY MODELS ACROSS THIS REGION...RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS MINIMAL AT THE PRESENT TIME. ..KERR.. 12/31/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Dec 31 17:19:36 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 31 Dec 2004 12:19:36 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200412311721.iBVHLhfU004918@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 311719 SWODY2 SPC AC 311718 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1118 AM CST FRI DEC 31 2004 VALID 011200Z - 021200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW CLM 25 E AST 25 SW EUG 10 NW CEC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E PSX 35 WSW LFK DAL 10 WSW OLU 25 SSW RWF 35 E MKT 15 NE DBQ MTO 20 W EVV MKL GWO 30 E MCB 35 SE HUM. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT FROM PERSISTENT PAC NW UPPER LOW TODAY...TRAVELING FROM CA TO THE UPPER MS VLY BY 12Z/2. A WEAKER SUBTROPICAL JET STREAK WILL MOVE FROM BAJA NEWD TOWARD THE WRN GULF BASIN BY LATE SATURDAY. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...LEE CO LOW WILL INTENSIFY SATURDAY AND MOVE NEWD TOWARD WI. ATTENDANT LEE TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE PLAINS WHILE A COLD FRONT MOVES SEWD TOWARD IA/KS. ...ERN PLAINS TO UPPER MS VLY... MOIST SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH/SURFACE LOW WILL REINFORCE THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS THE ERN PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY. TSTM PROBABILITIES WILL INCREASE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT FROM ERN OK-ERN KS-WRN MO-SRN IA AS THE LEE-TROUGH/LOW/60 METER PER 12 HOUR H5 HEIGHT FALLS APPROACH. AFTERNOON WARM SECTOR MAY REMAIN CAPPED...DEPENDING ON MAGNITUDE OF HEATING. MORE LIKELY SCENARIO WILL BE FOR NOCTURNAL ELEVATED TSTMS TO DEVELOP ALONG LLJ AXIS FROM THE OZARKS NEWD INTO THE UPPER MS VLY. INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED AND PRIND THAT WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS WILL NOT OCCUR DESPITE FAVORABLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. ...WRN GULF COASTAL AREA... AS THE SUBTROPICAL JETLET APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT...CONVECTIVE THREAT WILL INCREASE ALONG THE WRN GULF COASTAL AREA VERY LATE SATURDAY. THESE TSTMS COULD BE MORE SURFACE BASED THAN FARTHER N. MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS WILL BE THE RATHER POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXPECTED THAT WILL MITIGATE THE OVERALL INSTABILITY. ...PAC COAST... PERSISTENT ONSHORE PACIFIC BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BENEATH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITHIN CYCLONIC SIDE OF UPPER JET AXIS WILL MAINTAIN ISOLD THUNDER THREAT ACROSS THE WA/OR/NRN CA COAST ON SATURDAY. HIGHEST POTENTIAL WILL EXIST OVER THE OFFSHORE COASTAL ZONES. ..RACY.. 12/31/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Dec 1 05:25:21 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 01 Dec 2004 00:25:21 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200412010527.iB15RNE30352@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 010525 SWODY2 SPC AC 010524 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1124 PM CST TUE NOV 30 2004 VALID 021200Z - 031200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE EVOLUTION OF CONFLUENT UPPER FLOW PATTERN ACROSS MUCH OF THE NATION BY EARLY THURSDAY...AS SPLIT MID LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES MERGE INTO BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL/EASTERN STATES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL SUPPORT SPRAWLING SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/ROCKIES...PLAINS...OHIO VALLEY AND GULF STATES. STABLY STRATIFIED THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS REGIME ARE EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE ANY APPRECIABLE RISK FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. ..KERR.. 12/01/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Dec 1 16:59:28 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 01 Dec 2004 11:59:28 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200412011701.iB1H1SE25923@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 011659 SWODY2 SPC AC 011658 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK ISSUED BY AFWA OFFUTT AIR FORCE BASE BELLEVUE NE 1058 AM CST WED DEC 01 2004 VALID 021200Z - 031200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... TEST. TEST. TEST. THE SCHEDULED 1730Z OUTLOOK WILL BE TRANSMITTED BY 1730Z. TEST. TEST. TEST. ..AFWA.. 12/01/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Dec 1 17:03:22 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 01 Dec 2004 12:03:22 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200412011705.iB1H5ME27570@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 011703 SWODY2 SPC AC 011702 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1102 AM CST WED DEC 01 2004 VALID 021200Z - 031200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SOUTH TEXAS... WEAK WARM ADVECTION ACROSS NERN MEXICO AND DEEP SOUTH TX WILL ALLOW SLOW MOISTENING OF LOW-MID LEVELS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS PROCESS SHOULD PROVE INADEQUATE IN GENERATING DEEP CONVECTION GIVEN THE MARGINAL LAPSE RATES AND EXPECTED ASCENT TO THE NW OF A WEAK SFC WAVE THAT SHOULD EVOLVE ALONG BOUNDARY OVER THE NWRN GULF OF MEXICO. ..DARROW.. 12/01/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Dec 2 05:28:22 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 02 Dec 2004 00:28:22 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200412020530.iB25UKE02077@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 020528 SWODY2 SPC AC 020527 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1127 PM CST WED DEC 01 2004 VALID 031200Z - 041200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... THOUGH UNCERTAINTIES STILL EXIST WITH REGARD TO RATE OF PROGRESSION/ AMPLITUDE OF SMALLER SCALE FEATURES...MODELS REMAIN SIMILAR IN DEPICTION OF LARGE-SCALE UPPER FLOW EVOLUTION THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS ALL INDICATE AMPLIFICATION OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST BY LATE FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. PERHAPS IN RESPONSE TO THIS SYSTEM...EASTWARD ACCELERATION AND PHASING OF DOWNSTREAM SOUTHERN BRANCH CLOSED LOW AND IMPULSE IN SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES IS PROGGED NEAR THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY AN INTENSIFYING HIGH-LEVEL JET STREAK FROM THE SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC THROUGH THE NORTHERN MEXICAN PLATEAU. WHILE LATEST ETA/GFS APPEAR A BIT SLOWER THAN PRIOR RUNS WITH DEVELOPMENTS IN THE SOUTHWEST...LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL STILL FAVOR INCREASING LOW/MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN MEXICAN PLATEAU/RIO GRANDE VALLEY INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. INFLUX OF MID/HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE OFF THE SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC WILL CONTRIBUTE TO PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...AT LEAST SOME STRENGTHENING OF SURFACE RIDGE IS FORECAST BY FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE GULF STATES AND MUCH OF THE NORTHERN/ EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...IN WAKE OF A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES. THIS WILL PRECLUDE RISK OF SURFACE-BASED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALSO BECOME RATHER POOR ACROSS THIS REGION...MINIMIZING RISK FOR STORMS BASED ABOVE SURFACE RIDGING. ..KERR.. 12/02/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Dec 2 16:31:10 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 02 Dec 2004 11:31:10 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200412021633.iB2GX5E14118@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 021629 SWODY2 SPC AC 021628 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK ISSUED BY AFWA OFFUTT AIR FORCE BASE BELLEVUE NE 1028 AM CST THU DEC 02 2004 VALID 031200Z - 041200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... MODELS REVEAL A WEAK SHORTWAVE TRANSITIONING IN THE UPPER LEVELS ACROSS THE NRN MS AND OHIO VALLEY. THOUGH SOME SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR ADVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM...INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN WEAK WITH NOT MUCH REFLECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS. NRN MEXICO WILL BE THE BEST AREA FOR POSSIBLE CONVECTION. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SLIGHTLY DIFFLUENT OVER THE REGION. WARM MOIST AIR WILL FLOW FROM THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA INTO THE LOW LEVELS OVER THE REGION ENHANCING LAPSE RATES GENERATING POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SEVERE PARAMETERS ARE NOT EXPECTED...HOWEVER ISOLATED GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY MIGRATE NORTH OVER THE UPPER RIO GRAND VALLEY INTO SRN NEW MEXICO AND EXTREME SW TX DURING FRIDAY NIGHT. ..AFWA.. 12/02/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Dec 3 06:22:38 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 03 Dec 2004 01:22:38 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200412030624.iB36OVE18270@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 030622 SWODY2 SPC AC 030621 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1221 AM CST FRI DEC 03 2004 VALID 041200Z - 051200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW BPT 50 WSW POE 45 N POE 35 SE MLU 10 WSW JAN LUL 30 SSW MOB. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SRN PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY AREA... A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SERN STATES WILL MAINTAIN OFFSHORE FLOW OVER THE GULF COASTAL AREA INTO PART OF SATURDAY. MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT EJECTING THE UPPER LOW NOW MOVING SLOWLY SWD THROUGH CA INTO THE SRN PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT....WITH ATTENDANT LEE CYCLOGENESIS AND DEVELOPMENT OF A SLY LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY. OFFSHORE TRAJECTORIES WILL MAINTAIN AN INFLUX OF CP AIR OVER THE NRN GULF MUCH OF SATURDAY. RICHER GULF MOISTURE WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE S OF A WARM FRONT. HOWEVER...THE STRENGTHENING SSWLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS MODIFIED CP AIR ADVECTS INLAND OVERNIGHT ABOVE THE RELATIVELY COOL AND STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. THE RESULTING THETA-E ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF VERY MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND ELEVATED CONVECTION FROM ERN PARTS THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. ISOLATED LIGHTNING MAY ACCOMPANY SOME OF THE ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST WHERE POTENTIAL FOR SLIGHTLY GREATER INSTABILITY WILL EXIST. ..DIAL.. 12/03/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Dec 3 16:19:55 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 03 Dec 2004 11:19:55 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200412031621.iB3GLlE10097@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 031614 SWODY2 SPC AC 031613 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1013 AM CST FRI DEC 03 2004 VALID 041200Z - 051200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSE CVS 30 ESE AMA 40 W END 20 SE TUL 35 W PGO 30 S DUA 20 NW BWD 35 WNW SJT 30 NNE FST 30 SW HOB 50 SSE CVS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW BPT 50 WSW POE 45 N POE 35 SE MLU 10 WSW JAN LUL 30 SSW MOB. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... WITH APPROACH OF VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY NEAR 45N/155W...MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW OFF THE CA COAST IS FORECAST TO OPEN AND EJECT EWD INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS BY SUNDAY MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WITH ATTENDANT LEE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT SWD INTO WRN TX. MEANWHILE... FARTHER TO THE SE...MARINE BAROCLINIC ZONE/WARM FRONT WILL RETREAT NWD ONTO THE WRN/CNTRL GULF COAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. ...SRN PLAINS INTO THE CNTRL GULF COAST... CURRENT MESOANALYSIS AND GOES PW IMAGERY SHOW SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY WITH RICHEST GULF MOISTURE CONFINED TO LOCATIONS GENERALLY EQUATORWARD OF 26N. HOWEVER...12Z OBSERVATIONS FROM BRO AND CRP DID INDICATE THAT WIND FIELDS HAVE ALREADY BECOME SELY/SLY AT 850 MB WITH SOME ELEVATED MOISTURE RETURN UNDERWAY ACROSS S TX. WITH APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES...ENHANCEMENT OF LLJ WILL OCCUR FROM TX INTO THE CNTRL GULF COAST NAMELY DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST. THIS WILL EXPEDITE NWD RETURN OF MOISTURE ABOVE BOUNDARY-LAYER AND WHEN COUPLED WITH STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WILL RESULT IN POCKETS OF WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS. WHILE LAPSE RATES WILL BE WEAKER OVER THE CNTRL GULF COAST...INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG/S OF RETREATING WARM FRONT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO POCKETS OF WEAK INSTABILITY AS WELL. POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL EXIST ON SATURDAY NIGHT FROM PORTIONS OF WRN TX INTO OK AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTERACTS WITH WEAK INSTABILITY. ISOLATED TSTM ACTIVITY MAY EXTEND AS FAR E AS THE CNTRL GULF COAST ALONG ERN EDGE OF LLJ AXIS. ..MEAD.. 12/03/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Dec 4 06:05:18 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 04 Dec 2004 01:05:18 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200412040607.iB4677E21341@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 040604 SWODY2 SPC AC 040603 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1203 AM CST SAT DEC 04 2004 VALID 051200Z - 061200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE CRP 25 E COT 45 WSW HDO 50 SW JCT 30 SSE SJT 40 NE SJT 50 N ABI 10 SW LTS 35 ENE GAG 25 W HUT 25 SSE CNK 30 NNE FNB 10 ENE OTM 25 SW MMO 30 NNE IND 50 NNW JKL 20 WSW TRI 25 WSW AND 35 WNW MCN 40 NE DHN 10 SE PFN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NNW VBG 35 S BFL 10 ESE PMD 35 ESE RAL 25 E CZZ. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... ...SRN PLAINS THROUGH LOWER MS VALLEY... THE UPPER LOW NOW OFF THE COAST OF CNTRL CA IS FORECAST TO EJECT EWD AND INTO THE SRN PLAINS BY EARLY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE NOW FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE SERN STATES WILL GIVE WAY TO LEE CYCLOGENESIS BY SATURDAY AS HEIGHTS FALL IN RESPONSE TO EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO SLY FROM THE SRN PLAINS...LOWER MS VALLEY AND GULF BY SATURDAY NIGHT AS LEE CYCLOGENESIS COMMENCES AND THE SURFACE RIDGE RETREATS. THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY NOW OVER THE NRN GULF WILL RETREAT NWD AS A WARM FRONT. THIS WILL ALLOW MODIFYING GULF AIR WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S TO BEGIN RETURNING INTO SRN AND ERN TX THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY. STRENGTHENING SSWLY LOW LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH LEE CYCLOGENESIS WILL ENHANCE THETA-E ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD ELEVATED STORMS FROM PARTS OF OK INTO ERN TX AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY BY EARLY SUNDAY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIFT NEWD TOWARD THE TN VALLEY DURING THE DAY. MEAGER INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE THREAT WITH MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...INFLUX OF HIGHER THETA-E LOW LEVEL AIR SUGGESTS STORMS DEVELOPING ON THE TAIL END OF THE MCS OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY MAY UNDERGO SOME INTENSIFICATION DURING THE DAY. THE LOW LEVEL AND DEEP SHEAR PROFILES WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS IF SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY DOES INDEED DEVELOP. FARTHER W AND N ACROSS ERN OK THROUGH CNTRL/ERN TX...PERSISTENT MID LEVEL SWLY FLOW SHOULD PROMOTE AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER SPREADING NEWD INTO TX ABOVE RETURNING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH RESULTING DESTABILIZATION. ADVECTION OF THE EML IN CONJUNCTION WITH POTENTIAL FOR DENSE CIRRUS PLUME SHOULD EFFECTIVELY CAP THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS TX. HOWEVER...BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE NE PACIFIC IS FORECAST TO EJECT INTO THE SRN PLAINS ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING. THE RESULTING ASCENT MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO MOISTEN THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES AND WEAKEN THE CAP ENOUGH FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP FROM PARTS OF OK SWD INTO PARTS OF N TX. SRN EXTENT OF INITIATION INTO TX MAY BE LIMITED BY STRONGER CAP. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE ELEVATED...BUT WITH POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE MAINLY HAIL. ..DIAL.. 12/04/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Dec 4 08:21:47 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 04 Dec 2004 03:21:47 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200412040823.iB48NcE30844@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 040818 SWODY2 SPC AC 040817 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0217 AM CST SAT DEC 04 2004 VALID 051200Z - 061200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NNW VBG 35 S BFL 10 ESE PMD 35 ESE RAL 25 E CZZ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE CRP 25 E COT 45 WSW HDO 50 SW JCT 30 SSE SJT 40 NE SJT 50 N ABI 10 SW LTS 35 ENE GAG 25 W HUT 25 SSE CNK 30 NNE FNB 10 ENE OTM 25 SW MMO 30 NNE IND 50 NNW JKL 20 WSW TRI 25 WSW AND 35 WNW MCN 40 NE DHN 10 SE PFN. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SRN PLAINS THROUGH LOWER MS VALLEY... THE UPPER LOW NOW OFF THE COAST OF CNTRL CA IS FORECAST TO EJECT EWD AND INTO THE SRN PLAINS BY EARLY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE NOW FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE SERN STATES WILL GIVE WAY TO LEE CYCLOGENESIS BY SATURDAY AS HEIGHTS FALL IN RESPONSE TO EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO SLY FROM THE SRN PLAINS...LOWER MS VALLEY AND GULF BY SATURDAY NIGHT AS LEE CYCLOGENESIS COMMENCES AND THE SURFACE RIDGE RETREATS. THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY NOW OVER THE NRN GULF WILL RETREAT NWD AS A WARM FRONT. THIS WILL ALLOW MODIFYING GULF AIR WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S TO BEGIN RETURNING INTO SRN AND ERN TX THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY. STRENGTHENING SSWLY LOW LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH LEE CYCLOGENESIS WILL ENHANCE THETA-E ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD ELEVATED STORMS FROM PARTS OF OK INTO ERN TX AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY BY EARLY SUNDAY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIFT NEWD TOWARD THE TN VALLEY DURING THE DAY. MEAGER INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE THREAT WITH MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...INFLUX OF HIGHER THETA-E LOW LEVEL AIR SUGGESTS STORMS DEVELOPING ON THE TAIL END OF THE MCS OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY MAY UNDERGO SOME INTENSIFICATION DURING THE DAY. THE LOW LEVEL AND DEEP SHEAR PROFILES WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS IF SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY DOES INDEED DEVELOP. FARTHER W AND N ACROSS ERN OK THROUGH CNTRL/ERN TX...PERSISTENT MID LEVEL SWLY FLOW SHOULD PROMOTE AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER SPREADING NEWD INTO TX ABOVE RETURNING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH RESULTING DESTABILIZATION. ADVECTION OF THE EML IN CONJUNCTION WITH POTENTIAL FOR DENSE CIRRUS PLUME SHOULD EFFECTIVELY CAP THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS TX. HOWEVER...BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE NE PACIFIC IS FORECAST TO EJECT INTO THE SRN PLAINS ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING. THE RESULTING ASCENT MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO MOISTEN THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES AND WEAKEN THE CAP ENOUGH FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP FROM PARTS OF OK SWD INTO PARTS OF N TX. SRN EXTENT OF INITIATION INTO TX MAY BE LIMITED BY STRONGER CAP. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE ELEVATED...BUT WITH POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE MAINLY HAIL. ..DIAL.. 12/04/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Dec 4 16:31:22 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 04 Dec 2004 11:31:22 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200412041633.iB4GXAE01349@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 041628 SWODY2 SPC AC 041627 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1027 AM CST SAT DEC 04 2004 VALID 051200Z - 061200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE CRP 25 SSE DRT ...CONT... 25 WSW ELP 50 ENE ROW 40 NW CDS 30 SW END 25 NW BVO 10 NE FLV 25 S OTM 35 NE PIA 30 NNE IND 50 NNW JKL 20 WSW TRI 25 WSW AND 35 WNW MCN 40 NE DHN 10 SE PFN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NNW VBG 35 S BFL 10 ESE PMD 35 ESE RAL 25 E CZZ. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... ACTIVE SRN BRANCH OF WESTERLIES IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE SRN CONUS THROUGH THE DAY 2 PERIOD WITH PRIMARY FEATURES OF INTEREST BEING MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW JUST OFF THE SRN CA COAST AND VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SEWD NEAR 42N/130W. THE FORMER IS FORECAST TO OPEN AND DE-AMPLIFY AS IT PROGRESSES EWD ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES DURING THE DAY 1 PERIOD...PRIOR TO LIFTING MORE NEWD INTO THE OH VALLEY BY MONDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...THE LATTER IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN IT/S INTENSITY AS IT TRANSLATES EWD FROM OFF THE CA COAST INTO THE SRN ROCKIES SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...CYCLONE ATTENDANT TO THE LEAD SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP NEWD FROM THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY...WITH SUBSEQUENT LEE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS LATE IN THE PERIOD. ...UPPER TX COAST INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY... CLUSTERS OF TSTMS ARE LIKELY TO BE ONGOING INITIALLY OVER PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL GULF COAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME DOWNSTREAM FROM EJECTING LEAD DISTURBANCE. INCREASING SLY BOUNDARY-LAYER FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE SHOULD ENHANCE NWD ADVECTION OF MODIFIED GULF AIR MASS WITH LOWER TO MID 60 F DEWPOINTS AS FAR N AS THE I-20 CORRIDOR BY AFTERNOON. THIS MOISTURE COUPLED WITH AN INCREASE IN LARGE-SCALE FORCING IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT THE NEWD DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP MOIST CONVECTION INTO PORTIONS OF THE TN VALLEY SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN WEAK ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...EFFECTIVELY LIMITING THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FROM PORTIONS OF THE UPPER TX COAST INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY ALONG SRN EDGE OF BROAD PRECIPITATION AREA WHERE INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SLIGHTLY STRONGER AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION. HERE...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF TORNADO. ...WRN TX... STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ABOVE A GRADUALLY MOISTENING LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS IS FORECAST DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD IN ADVANCE OF STRONG...UPSTREAM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE SRN ROCKIES. POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH DESTABILIZING ENVIRONMENT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS VALID LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING DO SUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL FOR HAIL WITH STRONGEST STORMS. CONFIDENCE IN ANY SEVERE THREAT REMAINS LOW ATTM...CONSEQUENTLY PRECLUDING ANY PROBABILITIES. ..MEAD.. 12/04/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Dec 5 07:10:04 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 05 Dec 2004 02:10:04 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200412050711.iB57BoE11209@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 050708 SWODY2 SPC AC 050708 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0108 AM CST SUN DEC 05 2004 VALID 061200Z - 071200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE CRP 60 WSW COT ...CONT... 45 NW DRT 20 ENE SJT 50 NE ABI 15 WNW ADM 25 WSW MKO 20 SSE UMN 40 SE VIH 20 WSW SLO 40 SSE MTO BMG 50 W LUK 20 N LEX 20 WSW LOZ 15 NE CHA 40 NW AUO 10 NE PNS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSW MRF 45 SE LBB 20 ENE END 15 N SZL 15 SSE PIA 25 SSW SBN 20 NE TOL ...CONT... 10 NW CLE 10 S CAK 35 SW HLG 35 SSE PKB 40 ENE 5I3 20 ENE HSS 20 W AHN 45 S CSG PFN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF TX INTO THE MS...TN AND OH VALLEYS... ...SYNOPSIS... STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OFF THE CA COAST CONTINUES TO DIG SSEWD. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO EJECT EWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS BY EARLY MONDAY AND INTO THE MS...TN AND OH VALLEYS MONDAY NIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY A COLD FRONT. ASSOCIATED LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DEEPENING OF CNTRL PLAINS LEE CYCLONE. THIS FEATURE WILL LIFT NEWD THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY MONDAY EVENING AND INTO THE OH VALLEY LATE MONDAY NIGHT. WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP NWD AND INTO THE OH VALLEY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. ...CNTRL THROUGH ERN TX...LOWER MS...TN AND OH VALLEYS... MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARD A SLOWER SOLUTION THE PAST FEW RUNS...SUGGESTING SEVERE THREAT MAY EXTEND FARTHER W INTO PARTS OF TX. BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IS SHIFTING TO SLY OVER THE WRN/CNTRL GULF AS SURFACE RIDGE RETREATS AND LEE CYCLOGENESIS COMMENCES OVER THE PLAINS. SLY FLOW SHOULD BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND SERN U.S. SUNDAY...ALLOWING MODIFYING GULF MOISTURE TO RETURN NWD THROUGH THE WARM SECTOR. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S ARE EXPECTED FROM CNTRL TX THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 DEWPOINTS INTO THE OH VALLEY. POTENTIAL FOR GREATER INSTABILITY WILL EXIST FROM TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY WHERE RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL EXIST UNDERNEATH PLUME OF STEEPER LAPSE RATES WITH MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG POSSIBLE. WEAKER LAPSE RATES AND MORE LIMITED MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN MUCH WEAKER INSTABILITY FARTHER NWD INTO THE TN AND OH VALLEYS. ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY FROM PARTS OF TX INTO OK AS FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH ADVANCES EWD. MAIN THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LARGE HAIL GIVEN PRESENCE OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT CLOUD LAYER SHEAR FOR UPDRAFTS TO ROTATE. STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SURFACE BASED AS ZONE OF ASCENT ALONG WARM CONVEYOR BELT SPREADS EWD INTO THE DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER. STRENGTHENING LOW-MID LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS AND LINES/BOWING SEGMENTS WITH DAMAGING WIND...ISOLATED TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE ONCE ACTIVITY BECOMES SURFACE BASED. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP FARTHER W WITHIN ZONE OF STRONG LINEAR FORCING ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL TX. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DEVELOP INTO A SQUALL LINE WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND BOWS AS IT CONTINUES EWD. ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD EWD INTO PARTS OF THE MID/LOWER MS VALLEYS DURING THE EVENING AND TN/OH VALLEYS OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...NWD EXTENT OF SEVERE THREAT INTO THE OH VALLEY MAY BE LIMITED BY MARGINAL INSTABILITY. ..DIAL.. 12/05/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Dec 5 17:19:28 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 05 Dec 2004 12:19:28 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200412051721.iB5HLCE08399@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 051716 SWODY2 SPC AC 051715 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1115 AM CST SUN DEC 05 2004 VALID 061200Z - 071200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE CRP 15 SW LRD ...CONT... 45 NW DRT 20 ENE SJT 50 WNW MWL 35 W ADM 25 WSW MKO 20 SSE UMN 40 SE VIH 20 WSW SLO 40 SSE MTO BMG 50 W LUK 20 N LEX 20 WSW LOZ 15 NE CHA 40 NW AUO 15 SSW PNS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NW CLE 10 S CAK 35 SW HLG 35 SSE PKB 40 ENE 5I3 20 ENE HSS 20 W AHN 45 S CSG PFN ...CONT... 55 SSW MRF 45 SE LBB 20 ENE END 15 N SZL 15 SSE PIA 25 SSW SBN 20 NE TOL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN TX INTO THE LOWER/MID MS AND OH VALLEYS... ...SYNOPSIS... MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND CURRENT LDS DATA SHOW A QUITE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SEWD OFF THE SRN CA COAST. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE AND INTO THE DESERT SW DURING THE DAY 1 PERIOD...PRIOR TO EJECTING EWD ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE MS VALLEY REGION ON MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...SURFACE CYCLONE ATTENDANT TO THIS SYSTEM WILL INITIALLY DEVELOP SEWD FROM ERN CO INTO OK PRIOR TO MOVING/DEVELOPING RAPIDLY NEWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MEANWHILE...TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS INTO THE MS VALLEY AND WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCUS OF SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT. ...POTENTIALLY ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER DAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ARKLATEX INTO LOWER MS VALLEY... ...TX EWD AND NEWD INTO THE LOWER/MID MS AND OH VALLEYS... CURRENT MESOANALYSIS INDICATES WARM FRONT STEADILY MOVING NWD ONTO THE MIDDLE/UPPER TX AND CNTRL GULF COASTS WITH UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS COMMON OVER THE NWRN GULF OF MEXICO. PERSISTENT SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW /AIDED BY BOTH SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY LIFTING NEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS AND APPROACHING UPSTREAM SYSTEM/ WILL ALLOW WARM/MOIST SECTOR TO DEVELOP NWD ACROSS THE SRN LOW PLAINS AND LOWER/MID MS VALLEY WITH 60 F DEWPOINTS EXPECTED AS FAR N AS THE LOWER OH VALLEY BY MONDAY NIGHT. WHEN COUPLED WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH EML OBSERVED ON 12Z BRO/CRP SOUNDINGS...EXPECT MODERATE INSTABILITY /I.E. MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG/ TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. AIR MASS STABILITY WILL LIKELY INCREASE WITH NWD EXTENT ACROSS PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR OWING TO WEAKER LAPSE RATES AND DECREASING AMOUNTS OF BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE. LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE IS RELATIVELY CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUN IN SPREADING STRONGEST LARGE-SCALE HEIGHT FALLS AND CONCOMITANT FORCING ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS REGION MONDAY INTO THE MID MS VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...EXPECT AN INCREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BY MID DAY ALONG COLD FRONT AS IT ENCOUNTERS WRN EDGE OF DEVELOPING INSTABILITY AXIS OVER PORTIONS OF CNTRL/N-CNTRL TX. PERSISTENT DOWNSTREAM MOISTENING/LOW-LEVEL WAA MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO OVERCOME CAP AND INITIATE ADDITIONAL STORMS FARTHER E ALONG RETREATING WARM FRONT OR WITHIN FREE WARM SECTOR OVER PORTIONS OF THE ARKLATEX REGION. WITH TIME...EXPECT STORMS TO CONSOLIDATE ALONG COLD FRONT...MOVING/DEVELOPING NEWD INTO THE LOWER OH/WRN TN AND LOWER MS VALLEYS OVERNIGHT. PRESENCE OF 75-85 KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK LIFTING NEWD FROM TX INTO THE OH VALLEY IN CONJUNCTION WITH 45-55 KT LLJ ACROSS SAME GENERAL AREA WILL RESULT IN A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD AREA OF WIND PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRIMARILY ISOLATED TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS. GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION INTO THE WRN TN AND LOWER MS VALLEYS WHERE BEST COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ARE FORECAST TO CO-EXIST. UNCERTAINTY IN CONVECTIVE MODE AND DEGREE OF AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION PRECLUDE A CATEGORICAL INCREASE ATTM...HOWEVER PORTIONS OF AREA MAY WELL BE UPGRADED TO A MODERATE RISK ON SUBSEQUENT DAY 1 OUTLOOKS. ..MEAD.. 12/05/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Dec 6 06:45:16 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 06 Dec 2004 01:45:16 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200412060647.iB66lWE17448@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 060645 SWODY2 SPC AC 060644 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1244 AM CST MON DEC 06 2004 VALID 071200Z - 081200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WNW MCN CEW 10 NW MOB 25 SSE LUL 10 SSW HSV 20 SSW CHA 30 NE ATL 15 WNW MCN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW 7R4 15 ENE MKL 30 SSE BMG 30 NE MIE 15 NNE TOL ...CONT... 10 SW BUF 35 WSW ELM 10 WSW AVP 10 WSW JFK ...CONT... 25 ESE SAV 30 NE AYS 20 NW VLD AQQ. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE SERN U.S.... ...SYNOPSIS... VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW DROPPING INTO SRN CA WILL EJECT EWD INTO THE OH VALLEY TUESDAY AND INTO THE NERN STATES TUESDAY NIGHT. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND SERN STATES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT. ...SERN STATES... GULF MOISTURE WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 WILL HAVE ADVECTED INTO PARTS OF CNTRL/SRN MS...AL AND GA WITH LOW TO MID 60S FARTHER NORTH INTO TN. DESPITE INFLUX OF RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN LIMITED DUE TO WEAK LAPSE RATES AND AREAS OF ONGOING PRECIPITATION/CLOUDS. MLCAPE GENERALLY AOB 1000 J/KG IS EXPECTED NEAR THE COAST AND AOB 500 J/KG FARTHER N TOWARD TN. PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE BAND WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING FROM THE OH AND TN VALLEYS SWD INTO PARTS OF MS AND AL. KINEMATIC AND LOW-MID LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES WILL STILL BE STRONG EARLY TUESDAY. HOWEVER...BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE DAY AS LOW LEVEL JET LIFTS NEWD AWAY FROM THE BETTER INSTABILITY. TENDENCY FOR THE STRONGER FORCING AND LOW LEVEL JET TO WEAKEN WITH TIME MAY SERVE AS AN OVERALL LIMITING FACTOR FOR SEVERE WEATHER. HOWEVER...KINEMATIC PROFILES MAY REMAIN SUFFICIENT THROUGH EARLY-MID AFTERNOON TO SUPPORT A THREAT OF PRIMARILY ISOLATED STRONG-DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ...OH VALLEY... POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS ACCOMPANYING LOW TOPPED CONVECTION MAY EXIST WITH PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE BAND GIVEN STRENGTH OF LOW LEVEL FLOW/SHEAR. HOWEVER...WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL THREAT. THERE IS SOME CHANCE THAT OTHER LOW TOPPED CONVECTION MIGHT DEVELOP FARTHER W ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON WHERE STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE HEATING WILL EXIST IN DRY SLOT REGION. HOWEVER...TENDENCY FOR LOW LEVEL FLOW TO WEAKEN AND VEER IN PRE-FRONTAL ZONE AND POTENTIAL FOR MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SUGGEST FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WILL NOT BE DEEP OR STRONG ENOUGH TO INITIATE STORMS. ...ERN CAROLINAS THROUGH ERN VA... STORMS WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL HAVE BEEN STABILIZED BY WEDGE FRONT THAT WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF ERODING. RICHER MOISTURE FROM THE GULF STREAM WILL LIKELY ADVECT INTO ERN PORTIONS OF NC WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. HOWEVER...GIVEN WEAK LAPSE RATES...INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN VERY MARGINAL. THE LIMITED INSTABILITY AND EXPECTED LATE ARRIVAL OF ANY REMAINING FORCING FOR ASCENT SUGGEST OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IN THIS AREA SHOULD BE LOW. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR STORMS TO INTENSIFY IN BAROCLINIC ZONE LINGERING OFF THE COAST OF NC AS FORCING FOR ASCENT ARRIVES TUESDAY NIGHT. ..DIAL.. 12/06/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Dec 6 17:36:16 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 06 Dec 2004 12:36:16 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200412061738.iB6HceE00862@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 061736 SWODY2 SPC AC 061735 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1135 AM CST MON DEC 06 2004 VALID 071200Z - 081200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WNW MCN CEW 10 NW MOB 35 S LUL 35 W TCL 25 SW CHA 30 NE ATL 15 WNW MCN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW CRE 70 N AYS ABY PFN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N BUF 50 NE BFD 20 W IPT 30 SW AVP 25 E MSV 25 WSW EEN PSM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S LCH 40 SSW GWO 35 S MKL 40 NE PAH 35 NNW SLO 20 NE SPI 30 WSW CGX 50 W MBS 30 ENE MBS. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTH... ...SYNOPSIS... POWERFUL UPPER TROUGH NOW EJECTING NEWD FROM ERN NM/W TX AREA WILL RACE NEWD FROM THE LOWER OH VALLEY TO NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY. ASSOCIATED STRONG SURFACE CYCLONE WILL TRACK NEWD FROM IL TO SRN QUEBEC DURING THE PERIOD AS SECONDARY SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS ERN NEW ENGLAND AND MOVES OVER THE GULF OF MAINE TUESDAY NIGHT. A STRONGLY FORCED PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING EARLY IN THE PERIOD FROM EAST OF THE LOW CENTER SWD ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND CONTINUING SWWD TO THE MOUTH OF THE MS RIVER. THIS LINE WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE MORNING WHILE STRONGEST LARGE SCALE FORCING BECOMES INCREASINGLY REMOVED FROM HIGHER THETAE AIRMASS ACROSS THE SOUTH. ...SOUTH... POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD EXIST EARLY IN THE DAY FROM MIDDLE TN SWD ACROSS AL TO MOBILE BAY/WRN FL PNHDL AREA AS A STRONGLY FORCED SQUALL LINE MOVES EAST. DESPITE WEAK LAPSE RATES... AIRMASS ACROSS THESE AREAS WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY MOIST WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S CONTRIBUTING TO MUCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG. STRONGER LARGE SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALL CENTER WILL BE LIFTING AWAY FROM THE REGION DURING THE DAY...MOVING FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE ERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH EVENING. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN WEAKENING CONVERGENCE ALONG THE TRAILING FRONTAL ZONE AND LATEST ETA WAS SUGGEST DIMINISHING CONVECTIVE QPF WITHIN THIS ZONE...ACROSS AL/GA...DURING THE AFTERNOON. WIND FIELDS...HOWEVER...WILL REMAIN VERY STRONG ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH 60-70KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOW LEVEL MOIST AXIS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT...IN ADDITION TO EARLY DAY SEVERE POTENTIAL...A COUPLE OF LATE DAY TSTMS MIGHT DEVELOP WHERE STALLING FRONT IMPINGES ON RESIDUAL INSTABILITY. A COUPLE OF HAIL/WIND REPORTS COULD ALSO OCCUR WITH THIS CONVECTION. ...TN/KY TO OH... LOW TOPPED SQUALL LINE DRIVEN BY INTENSE DYNAMIC FORCING AND SHEAR MAY ACCOMPANY THE SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT ACROSS THE OH VALLEY INTO THE AFTERNOON. A FEW BOWING SEGMENTS WITHIN THIS LINE COULD PRODUCE ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS. AT PRESENT IT APPEARS THAT INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN TOO WEAK/LIMITED TO SUSTAIN A HIGHER PROBABILITY WIND THREAT. ..CARBIN.. 12/06/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Dec 8 06:35:01 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 08 Dec 2004 01:35:01 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200412080637.iB86bJE25739@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 080635 SWODY2 SPC AC 080634 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1234 AM CST WED DEC 08 2004 VALID 091200Z - 101200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E JAX 20 W CTY ...CONT... 20 NE GLS 30 N POE 35 WSW GLH 35 W UOX 25 S MKL 60 WSW BNA 15 SSW BNA 20 W CSV 15 WSW TYS 30 WSW AVL 10 NNE SPA 25 ENE CLT 30 S DAN 60 N RWI 35 SE RIC 35 NE ORF. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WRN U.S. WILL CONTINUE EWD INTO THE CNTRL/ERN STATES THURSDAY. VORT MAX NOW OVER AZ EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BROADER UPPER TROUGH WILL EJECT ENEWD INTO THE TN VALLEY BY LATE WEDNESDAY. STRONGER UPSTREAM IMPULSE WILL DROP SEWD INTO THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER TROUGH BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN AMPLIFICATION OF BROADER TROUGH OVER THE MS VALLEY AND SERN STATES. PRIMARY SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP SEWD FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE OH VALLEY BY LATE THURSDAY WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND INTO THE SERN STATES. MODELS DIFFER SOMEWHAT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FEATURES WITH THE ETA BEING A LITTLE SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED THAN THE GFS. ...LOWER MS VALLEY THROUGH SERN STATES... RICH GULF MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S RESIDES OVER THE CNTRL GULF S OF A STATIONARY BOUNDARY. AS LEE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS AND THE SERN U.S. SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EWD...SLY FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM THE GULF NWD INTO THE SERN STATES WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE RICHER MOISTURE TO ADVECT INLAND. DESPITE THE RETURN OF RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...MODEST LAPSE RATES AND AREAS OF WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY LIMIT INSTABILITY. MUCAPE GENERALLY BELOW 500 J/KG IS EXPECTED WELL INLAND AND AOB 1000 J/KG NEAR THE COAST. BAND OF CONVECTION ACCOMPANYING LEAD SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL JET WILL LIKELY BE IN PROGRESS FROM PARTS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY NEWD THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE SERN STATES EARLY THURSDAY. DESPITE BEING EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILES...MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE ELEVATED AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY SUGGESTS OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE LOW. BY AFTERNOON...CONTINUED INFLUX OF GULF MOISTURE AND BETTER INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER...NEAR SURFACE BASED STORMS NEAR THE COAST. HOWEVER...THE STRONGER LOW LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO LIFT NEWD AWAY FROM THIS AREA AS LEAD SHORTWAVE MIGRATES TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC. SOME DESTABILIZATION MAY OCCUR UPSTREAM NEAR THE COLD FRONT IN WAKE OF INITIAL CONVECTIVE BAND IF LOW CLOUDS CAN MIX OUT. FORCING FOR ASCENT IN VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY MAY INCREASE AS THE UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES DURING THE EVENING WITH POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS TO DEVELOP. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS WITH STORMS DEVELOPING WITHIN LEAD CONVECTIVE BAND AS WELL AS ALONG THE COLD FRONT...CONDITIONAL UPON THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THE TIMING/EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN AND POTENTIAL FOR LIMITED INSTABILITY SUGGEST MORE THAN 5% SEVERE PROBABILITIES ARE NOT WARRANTED AT TIME. AN UPGRADE TO SLIGHT MAY BE NECESSARY IN LATER OUTLOOKS ONCE THESE DETAILS BECOME CLEARER. ..DIAL.. 12/08/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Dec 8 17:31:35 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 08 Dec 2004 12:31:35 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200412081734.iB8HY2E15540@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 081731 SWODY2 SPC AC 081729 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1129 AM CST WED DEC 08 2004 VALID 091200Z - 101200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW CBM 30 NNW BHM 30 E LGC 35 SW MCN 15 E CEW MOB GPT MCB 15 SSW CBM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE BPT MLU DYR OWB SDF 10 E LEX 15 S JKL 35 NE TRI LYH 20 N RIC 15 E SBY ...CONT... 15 E JAX 20 W CTY. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THURSDAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL/ERN GULF COAST STATES.... AMPLIFICATION IN LARGE-SCALE UPPER FLOW IS ALREADY EVIDENT IN LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. MODELS SUGGEST UPPER RIDGE...NOW BUILDING ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC...WILL CONTINUE TO NOSE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES/PACIFIC COAST STATES AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...BROAD TROUGH...NOW EVOLVING ACROSS THE PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WILL DEEPEN SHARPLY...WITH A DEEP CLOSED LOW PROGGED TO FORM ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. CENTRAL U.S. TROUGH IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO THE PROGRESSION OF A COUPLE OF DISTINCT SHORT WAVE TROUGHS...ONE IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM...THE OTHER IN THE NORTHERN STREAM. SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH IS ALREADY MIGRATING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND PROGGED TO CONTINUE INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY EARLY THURSDAY...BEFORE ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. NORTHERN BRANCH SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND ROCKIES THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...BEFORE DIGGING STRONGLY INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. ...CENTRAL GULF STATES... IN RESPONSE TO LEAD...SOUTHERN TROUGH...A RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO OCCUR FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF STATES...WITH SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE DEVELOPING NORTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN GULF STATES BY THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. INFLUX OF MOISTURE/ DESTABILIZATION AND LARGE-SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO FAIRLY BROAD AREA OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY THURSDAY. MUCH OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY LIKELY WILL BE OCCURRING ABOVE FRONTAL INVERSION...NORTH OF SURFACE FRONT...FROM PARTS OF THE UPPER TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. HOWEVER...ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO TRAIL SOUTHWARD INTO WARM SECTOR ACROSS MISSISSIPPI/ LOUISIANA...WHERE MID-LEVEL FORCING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO WEAKEN INHIBITION. WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND SHALLOW NOCTURNAL SURFACE-BASED INVERSION LAYER...MAY INITIALLY BE INHIBITING SEVERE THREAT IN STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT ALONG 40 TO 50 KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS. HOWEVER...WITH AT LEAST SOME HEATING... MODIFYING BOUNDARY LAYER THROUGH THE MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY SUPPORTIVE OF SURFACE-BASED STORMS AS ACTIVITY SPREADS EASTWARD. A FEW SUPERCELLS APPEAR POSSIBLE...NEAR OR WITHIN SQUALL LINE...WITH ASSOCIATED ENHANCED RISK OF ISOLATED TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. TENDENCY MAY BE FOR WEAKENING UPPER SUPPORT ACROSS THE CENTRAL/ EASTERN GULF STATES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY IF LATEST ETA SOLUTION VERIFIES CLOSER THAN GFS. HOWEVER...MOIST UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG LIKELY WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SEVERE THREAT UNTIL ONSET OF COOLING AFTER DARK THURSDAY EVENING. ...SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES... FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH APPEARS LIKELY TO ENHANCE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT NEAR SURFACE FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL/ EASTERN CAROLINAS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING. FRONT IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP INLAND LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY... WITH ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE OFF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. DESPITE LIKELIHOOD OF 60F+ SURFACE DEW POINTS IN WARM SECTOR...EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT SURFACE HEATING. WITH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES LIKELY NOT TO STEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY...THIS WILL MINIMIZE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER...EVEN EXPECTED DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT LOW PROBABILITY SEVERE THREAT IN STRONG MEAN FLOW/SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. ..KERR.. 12/08/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Dec 9 06:26:24 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 09 Dec 2004 01:26:24 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200412090628.iB96Se901086@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 090625 SWODY2 SPC AC 090623 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1223 AM CST THU DEC 09 2004 VALID 101200Z - 111200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM AQQ 15 SW ABY 30 ENE CSG 20 SW RMG 50 N HSV 15 SSW CKV 25 W OWB 10 ESE HUF 40 ENE LAF 35 NNE FWA 20 S DTW ...CONT... 30 NNW SYR 25 SSE UCA 20 NW POU 10 E JFK. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY OVER ERN THIRD OF THE NATION INTO FRIDAY AS A STRONG UPSTREAM IMPULSE DROPS INTO ITS BASE WHILE THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DEEPENS AND OCCLUDES OVER THE OH VALLEY. AS THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS AND MIGRATES TOWARD THE NERN STATES...A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EWD THROUGH THE REMAINING PORTIONS OF THE SERN U.S. AND OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY EVENING WHILE A WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. ...GA...FL AND THE ERN CAROLINAS... PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE BAND SHOULD STILL BE IN PROGRESS FROM SERN GA/NRN FL NEWD THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS. ACTIVITY WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG SWLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW AND VERTICAL SHEAR. THREAT FOR PRIMARILY AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUST OR TWO MAY EXIST THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE ACTIVITY MOVES OFFSHORE. HOWEVER... LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR DESTABILIZATION DUE TO MARGINAL LAPSE RATES...WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND ONGOING PRECIPITATION SUGGEST SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LOW. ...PORTIONS OF THE OH VALLEY... CONVECTION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY OVER THE OH VALLEY WITHIN DIVERGENT EXIT REGION OF CYCLONICALLY CURVED UPPER JET WHERE VERY COLD AIR ALOFT WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR -22C AT 5 KM WILL SUPPORT STEEP LAPSE RATES. WHERE POCKETS OF SURFACE HEATING CAN OCCUR...SUFFICIENT CAPE MAY DEVELOP TO SUPPORT SOME THREAT FOR HAIL ON ERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER TROUGH WHERE VERTICAL SPEED SHEAR WILL BE ENOUGH FOR UPDRAFTS TO ROTATE. UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW MUCH INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP SUGGESTS THREAT IS TOO MARGINAL TO WARRANT MORE THAN A LOW SEVERE PROBABILITY. ..DIAL.. 12/09/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Dec 9 17:20:47 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 09 Dec 2004 12:20:47 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200412091723.iB9HN0924622@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 091719 SWODY2 SPC AC 091718 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1118 AM CST THU DEC 09 2004 VALID 101200Z - 111200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW AQQ 15 SW ABY 30 ENE CSG 35 SSW ANB TCL 20 E UOX 30 S PAH 10 ESE HUF 40 ENE LAF 35 NNE FWA 20 S DTW ...CONT... 15 N ROC 20 S ITH POU 25 SSW EEN 20 ENE LCI 25 SSE 3B1 25 SSE HUL. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... COLD UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY ON FRIDAY AS IT MOVES EWD TO THE ERN U.S. AND IN ADVANCE OF BUILDING HEIGHTS UPSTREAM OVER THE PLAINS STATES. MODELS SHOW A COMPLEX SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING NEWD OVER THE NERN STATES ON DAY 2. ONE SURFACE LOW WILL LIKELY TRACK FROM ERN OH TO SRN NY...WHILE A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS SRN VA TO THE DELMARVA REGION BY 11/00Z. TRAILING COLD FRONT...INITIALLY EXTENDING FROM THE SRN APPALACHIANS SWWD ACROSS WRN GA TO THE ERN FL PANHANDLE...WILL MOVE EWD AND OFF THE MID/SRN ATLANTIC COASTAL STATES TO CENTRAL FL AFTER 11/00Z. ...SERN VA/ERN CAROLINAS TO NRN FL... THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORM OF ONE OR MORE LINES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...MAINLY EAST OF THE COLD FRONT...AND IN REGION OF HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH. SLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS DURING THE DAY 1 PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS INLAND ACROSS THE ATLANTIC STATES WITH VALUES IN THE MID-UPPER 60S REACHING ERN NC TO EXTREME SERN VA BY 12Z FRIDAY. DESPITE THIS GREATER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...POOR LAPSE RATES AND EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS SHOULD LIMIT INSTABILITY. HOWEVER... STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND SWLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELD... INCLUDING 45-50 KT AT/BELOW 1 KM...SHOULD RESULT IN A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS AND/OR BOWING SEGMENTS. SEVERE PROBABILITIES WILL REMAIN AT 5% DUE TO THE FORECAST OF LIMITED INSTABILITY...AND SINCE ANY THREAT SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FARTHER S ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA...WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEWD MOVING COLD FRONT DUE TO VEERING LOW-LEVEL WINDS...AND WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES TO THE SOUTH OF THE UPPER JET WILL COMBINE TO MINIMIZE THE POTENTIAL FOR DEEP CONVECTION/ANY SEVERE THREAT. ...SRN OH SWD TO NRN AL/GA... COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES /-24 TO -28C AT 500 MB/ WILL SPREAD ESEWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY TO NRN GULF COAST STATES DURING DAY 2 ATOP AN AIRMASS WHERE POCKETS OF SURFACE HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STEEPENING LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE 40S IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...LIMITING OVERALL INSTABILITY...BUT COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES SHOULD SUPPORT AN ISOLATED HAIL THREAT AS STORMS DEVELOP ACROSS THIS REGION BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD THEN WEAKEN/DISSIPATE BY FRIDAY EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING. ..PETERS.. 12/09/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Dec 10 05:46:35 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 10 Dec 2004 00:46:35 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200412100548.iBA5mk919316@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 100546 SWODY2 SPC AC 100545 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1145 PM CST THU DEC 09 2004 VALID 111200Z - 121200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE NATION WILL SHIFT EWD TO THE ERN SEABOARD AND DEAMPLIFY BY SUNDAY MORNING...AS A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVES SEWD FROM SASKATCHEWAN INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. ALTHOUGH AN OCCLUDED SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEWD FROM PA INTO NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY...SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WITH MOST OF THE COUNTRY COVERED BY A DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE SRN FL PENINSULA WHERE THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BY 18Z. HOWEVER...WINDS ARE FORECAST TO VEER TO WLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE SHOULD PRECLUDE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG FRONT. IN NEW ENGLAND...THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE COLD WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S AND 30S...BUT STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE DEPTH OF THE BUOYANT LAYER SHOULD NOT SUPPORT MORE THAN AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO. ..IMY.. 12/10/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Dec 10 17:29:21 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 10 Dec 2004 12:29:21 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200412101731.iBAHVV925849@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 101729 SWODY2 SPC AC 101728 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1128 AM CST FRI DEC 10 2004 VALID 111200Z - 121200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW ILM FLO 30 SSE CLT 15 ENE GSO 45 SSE CHO 25 SSE DCA 25 E SBY. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVE COLD UPPER TROUGH...NOW MOVING INTO THE ERN STATES... WILL MOVE EWD AND EXTEND FROM NEW ENGLAND TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY 12Z SUNDAY...AS STRONG WNWLY FLOW ALOFT ACCOMPANYING NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH TRACKS TOWARD THE NORTH CENTRAL STATES. AT THE SURFACE... MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW PRIMARY COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING NEWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WILL ALREADY BE OFF MUCH OF THE EAST COAST AND EXTEND SWWD TO SRN FL AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. ...MID ATLANTIC STATES... SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD ACROSS NY/PA AND THE MID ATLANTIC STATES DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE WEAK GIVEN WLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. ALTHOUGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 40S...SUFFICIENT SURFACE HEATING BENEATH COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL STEEPEN LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SUPPORT MUCAPE AOB 150 J/KG. DESPITE WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE...THIS IS EXPECTED TO PROVE FAVORABLE FOR LOW-TOPPED STORMS FROM NC TO SRN DELMARVA FROM LATE SATURDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES EWD ACROSS THIS REGION. 40-60 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG FLOW ON ERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS. HAIL WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE STORMS DUE TO LOW FREEZING LEVELS. HOWEVER...GIVEN SUCH COLD THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES...FORECAST SOUNDINGS/LOCAL HAIL MODEL INDICATE ANY HAIL SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LEVELS. ..PETERS.. 12/10/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Dec 11 05:29:44 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 11 Dec 2004 00:29:44 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200412110531.iBB5Vp906895@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 110529 SWODY2 SPC AC 110528 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1128 PM CST FRI DEC 10 2004 VALID 121200Z - 131200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WITH VERY STRONG AND DEEP LAYER WIND FIELDS...IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED IN THE UPPER MIDWEST SUNDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL TRANSLATE EWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NERN STATES AND AMPLIFY THE LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE NERN QUARTER OF THE NATION. AN INTENSE SURFACE CYCLONE WILL ACCOMPANY THE UPPER TROUGH EWD ACROSS FAR SRN ONTARIO ON SUNDAY. A TRAILING COLD FRONT SHOULD STRETCH FROM THE SURFACE LOW SWWD INTO LOWER MI ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO/MID MS VALLEYS AND INTO CENTRAL TX BY SUNDAY EVENING. ALTHOUGH 30 TO 60 MPH WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND AND AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE GREAT LAKES AREA...A DRY AIR MASS AND VEERING WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN BEHIND THE FRONT ...WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW LIKELY TO DEVELOP/INTENSIFY. HOWEVER... FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO NOT INDICATE SUFFICIENT VERTICAL DEPTH FOR MORE THAN AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO. CONVERGENCE WILL BE STRONGER ALONG THE SEWD MOVING FRONT FROM SRN TX INTO SRN LA SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL SLY FLOW STRENGTHENS. DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S MAY SPREAD INLAND AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS SRN TX/LA...BUT SHALLOW BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND WARM TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 850 AND 600 MB SHOULD INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. ..IMY.. 12/11/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Dec 11 17:02:23 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 11 Dec 2004 12:02:23 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200412111704.iBBH4S920929@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 111702 SWODY2 SPC AC 111701 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1101 AM CST SAT DEC 11 2004 VALID 121200Z - 131200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... AMPLIFIED AND PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN THE PROMINENT WEATHER PATTERN INTO THE DAY 2 FORECAST PERIOD. MEAN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WRN STATES AS DEEP ERN STATES TROUGH DE-AMPLIFIES AS IT TRACKS OVER NOVA SCOTIA/ERN CANADA ON SUNDAY. NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH...NOW OVER ALBERTA...WILL CARVE OUT A BROAD TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION/NERN STATES SWD TO THE OH/TN VALLEYS BY 12Z MONDAY. MEANWHILE...STRONG PACIFIC TROUGH /CURRENTLY LOCATED AT 36N 138W/ WILL DE-AMPLIFY AS IT MOVES NEWD ACROSS WA/ORE AND INTO THE MEAN WRN RIDGE. AT THE SURFACE...SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AREA WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD/SWD OVER THE OH/TN VALLEYS AND SOUTH CENTRAL STATES. COLD AIR SPREADING OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE GREAT LAKES WHICH CURRENTLY RANGE FROM 5-9 C WILL RESULT IN STEEPENING SURFACE-3 KM LAPSE RATES. THIS WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASING THREAT FOR CONVECTIVE LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS IN LEE OF THE LAKES...BUT OVERALL LIGHTNING COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO LOW TO WARRANT A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK. ..PETERS.. 12/11/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Dec 12 04:54:11 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 11 Dec 2004 23:54:11 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200412120456.iBC4uX908292@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 120455 SWODY2 SPC AC 120453 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1053 PM CST SAT DEC 11 2004 VALID 131200Z - 141200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS/FORECAST... THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH EXPECTED TO EVOLVE ACROSS THE ERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY SUNDAY WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD ON MONDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM LOCATED NEAR 35N/135W TRANSLATES TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A STRONG COLD FRONT IN WAKE OF THE ERN WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SERN/GULF STATES MONDAY AS A 1040 MB HIGH BUILDS SWD FROM THE NRN ROCKIES. THE AIR MASS BOTH AHEAD AND BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE TOO STABLE TO GENERATE DEEP MOIST CONVECTION ON MONDAY. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES MIGHT BE POSSIBLE DOWNWIND OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY MONDAY BEFORE EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS START TO FALL LATER IN THE DAY. OTHERWISE...POST FRONTAL CONVECTION MAY INCREASE WEST OF THE CASCADES LATE MONDAY NIGHT. BUT...IT APPEARS THAT THE STEEPEST LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY PASS JUST NORTH OF THE REGION INTO COASTAL BRITISH COLUMBIA. ..RACY.. 12/12/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Dec 12 05:44:53 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 12 Dec 2004 00:44:53 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200412120547.iBC5lF922463@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 120503 SWODY2 SPC AC 120502 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1102 PM CST SAT DEC 11 2004 VALID 131200Z - 141200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS/FORECAST... THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH EXPECTED TO EVOLVE ACROSS THE ERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY SUNDAY WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD ON MONDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM LOCATED NEAR 35N/135W TRANSLATES TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A STRONG COLD FRONT IN WAKE OF THE ERN WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SERN/GULF STATES MONDAY AS A 1040 MB HIGH BUILDS SWD FROM THE NRN ROCKIES. THE AIR MASS BOTH AHEAD AND BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE TOO STABLE TO GENERATE DEEP MOIST CONVECTION ON MONDAY. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES MIGHT BE POSSIBLE DOWNWIND OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY MONDAY BEFORE EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS START TO FALL LATER IN THE DAY. OTHERWISE...POST FRONTAL CONVECTION MAY INCREASE WEST OF THE CASCADES LATE MONDAY NIGHT. BUT...IT APPEARS THAT THE STEEPEST LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY PASS JUST NORTH OF THE REGION INTO COASTAL BRITISH COLUMBIA. ..RACY.. 12/12/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Dec 12 17:09:43 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 12 Dec 2004 12:09:43 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200412121712.iBCHC3904039@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 121710 SWODY2 SPC AC 121708 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1108 AM CST SUN DEC 12 2004 VALID 131200Z - 141200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... STRONG...FAST MOVING SURFACE AND COLD UPPER LOW TRACKING ESEWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY WILL MOVE NEWD ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY. ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH WITH THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE ERN STATES...AS SIGNIFICANT UPSTREAM HEIGHT RISES /120-150 METER/ ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NRN PLAINS INTO CENTRAL CANADA AND WRN GREAT LAKES AREA. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEW ENGLAND LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST AND ALSO INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO EARLY IN THE PERIOD...AS A 1045 MB SURFACE HIGH BUILDS SWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. AIR MASS ACROSS MUCH OF THE COUNTRY WILL BE TOO STABLE TO GENERATE DEEP MOIST CONVECTION. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE IN LEE OF LE/LO WHERE STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND COLD EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS WILL SUPPORT A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WITH CONVECTIVE SNOW BANDS. THIS THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH MONDAY AFTERNOON AS EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS BECOME TOO WARM FOR CHARGE SEPARATION. ..PETERS.. 12/12/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Dec 13 05:16:42 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 13 Dec 2004 00:16:42 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200412130519.iBD5J2925668@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 130517 SWODY2 SPC AC 130515 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1115 PM CST SUN DEC 12 2004 VALID 141200Z - 151200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS/FORECAST... UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL BECOME PROGRESSIVE ON TUESDAY. LONGWAVE TROUGH ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE EWD LATE TUESDAY AS THE LAST IN A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES DIGS INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. UPSTREAM...RIDGING ACROSS THE WRN STATES WILL SHIFT EWD INTO THE PLAINS AS THE NEXT WAVE...CURRENTLY APPROACHING 135W... MOVES TO THE PAC NW/NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION BY EARLY TUESDAY AND TO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS/CNTRL ROCKIES BY 12Z/15. CP AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO BE REINFORCED IN WAKE OF THE ERN TROUGH THROUGH TUESDAY...PRECLUDING DEEP MOIST CONVECTION. WARM ADVECTION REGIME AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING PAC NW TROUGH WILL INCREASE FROM THE CNTRL ROCKIES TO THE NRN PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...MOISTURE/ INSTABILITY THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL BE MINIMAL AND VERY LOW TSTM PROBABILITIES WILL RESULT. ..RACY.. 12/13/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Dec 13 17:58:05 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 13 Dec 2004 12:58:05 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200412131800.iBDI0N916650@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 131637 SWODY2 SPC AC 131636 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1036 AM CST MON DEC 13 2004 VALID 141200Z - 151200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CNTRL U.S. WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SEWD THROUGH TUESDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES TOWARD THE ERN STATES. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH DRY AND STABLE CP AIR PREVAILING OVER MUCH OF THE NATION. ..DIAL.. 12/13/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Dec 14 05:26:23 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 14 Dec 2004 00:26:23 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200412140528.iBE5Sc930154@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 140526 SWODY2 SPC AC 140525 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1125 PM CST MON DEC 13 2004 VALID 151200Z - 161200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS/FORECAST... AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH AMERICA ON WEDNESDAY. UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE ERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY WEDNESDAY. AS A LARGE SCALE RIDGE BUILDS ALONG THE PAC COAST...A POSITIVE-TILT TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE FROM THE UPPER MS VLY TO THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION. A RENEWED CP AIR MASS WILL SPREAD SEWD IN WAKE OF THIS TROUGH...REACHING A WI-IA-MO-OK-CNTRL TX LINE BY 12Z/16. LIMITED MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL PRECLUDE TSTMS PROBABILITIES. ELSEWHERE...RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF A 1035 MB HIGH OVER THE SERN STATES WILL INCREASE ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS WITH A STRENGTHENING COASTAL TROUGH OFF THE S TX COASTLINE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER WILL GRADUALLY MOISTEN AND ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY CAUSE A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BUT...PROSPECTS FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION SEEM SLIM ATTM OVER S TX. ..RACY.. 12/14/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Dec 14 16:38:33 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 14 Dec 2004 11:38:33 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200412141640.iBEGek907258@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 141639 SWODY2 SPC AC 141638 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1038 AM CST TUE DEC 14 2004 VALID 151200Z - 161200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... THE UPPER TROUGH NOW OVER THE ERN U.S. WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BY EARLY TUESDAY WHILE AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS SSEWD THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND INTO PLAINS. THE LARGE SURFACE RIDGE NOW CENTERED OVER THE PLAINS WILL SHIFT INTO THE SERN STATES AND MAINTAIN AN INFLUX OF CP AIR INTO THE GULF. ...CNTRL ROCKIES.. COLD AIR ALOFT...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND FORCING FOR ASCENT ACCOMPANYING THE SEWD MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN/CNTRL ROCKIES. HOWEVER...VERY MARGINAL INSTABILITY SUGGESTS ANY LIGHTNING ACTIVITY WILL BE VERY ISOLATED AT BEST. ..DIAL.. 12/14/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Dec 15 05:26:07 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 15 Dec 2004 00:26:07 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200412150528.iBF5SI929907@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 150526 SWODY2 SPC AC 150525 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1125 PM CST TUE DEC 14 2004 VALID 161200Z - 171200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS/FORECAST... SHORT TERM MODELS ARE STILL OFFERING DIFFERENT OUTCOMES WITH RESPECT TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE CNTRL/ERN PARTS OF NORTH AMERICA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. 00Z ETA REMAINS STRONGER AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH SRN EXTENT OF THE TROUGH AND IS THUS MORE AGGRESSIVE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE COASTAL TROUGH OFF SRN TX/SRN LA. IN EITHER SOLUTION...HOWEVER...RETURN FLOW IS APT TO ADVECT ONLY SLIGHTLY MODIFIED CP AIR MASS NWD INTO THE MID/UPPER TX COAST AND SRN LA ON THURSDAY. OTHER THAN SCATTERED...WARM ADVECTION DERIVED SHOWERS/RAIN ALONG THE COAST...DEEP MOIST CONVECTION WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE...PRECLUDING TSTM PROBABILITIES ATTM. ELSEWHERE...GENERALLY STABLE CONDITIONS WILL PRECLUDE TSTMS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS. ..RACY.. 12/15/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Dec 15 17:27:14 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 15 Dec 2004 12:27:14 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200412151729.iBFHTN913347@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 151726 SWODY2 SPC AC 151725 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1125 AM CST WED DEC 15 2004 VALID 161200Z - 171200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SE TX THROUGH SRN LA... SLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS ERN TX TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES SEWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS. THIS SHOULD ACCELERATE THE RETURN OF MODIFYING GULF AIR INTO PARTS OF SE TX AND SRN LA. SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP NEWD INTO SERN TX TONIGHT AND SRN LA THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING WARM ADVECTION AND LIFT ACCOMPANYING THE LOW LEVEL JET. WITH ONLY MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED UNDERNEATH MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...IT APPEARS THE AMOUNT OF CAPE THAT CAN DEVELOP INLAND MAY NOT BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT CONVECTION DEEP ENOUGH FOR LIGHTNING. THOUGH ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES MAY BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST...IT APPEARS MOST OF THE CONVECTION DEEP ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN LIGHTNING SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE. ..DIAL.. 12/15/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Dec 16 05:26:20 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 16 Dec 2004 00:26:20 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200412160528.iBG5SR907879@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 160526 SWODY2 SPC AC 160525 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1125 PM CST WED DEC 15 2004 VALID 171200Z - 181200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS/FORECAST... UPPER TROUGH EXPECTED TO EVOLVE OVER THE ERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY ON THURSDAY WILL BE REINFORCED BY A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS THROUGH FRIDAY. AIR MASS OVER MOST OF THE COUNTRY WILL REMAIN TOO STABLE TO SUPPORT TSTMS ON FRIDAY AS THE MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE REMAINS SITUATED WELL SOUTH ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN GULF BASIN. ..RACY.. 12/16/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Dec 16 16:24:41 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 16 Dec 2004 11:24:41 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200412161626.iBGGQk926721@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 161623 SWODY2 SPC AC 161622 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1022 AM CST THU DEC 16 2004 VALID 171200Z - 181200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH...CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM ONTARIO/WRN GREAT LAKES TO FOUR CORNERS REGION...WILL BE REINFORCED AND DEEPEN ON DAY 2 AS UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGHS CARVE OUT A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH BY 12Z SATURDAY. MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SWD AWAY FROM THE TX/LA COASTS AND ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH AIR MASS ACROSS THE U.S. EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO STABLE TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. COLD FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGH NOW OVER ONTARIO/WRN GREAT LAKES...IS PROGGED TO MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST EARLY DAY 2. CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH COLDER AIR MOVING EWD ATOP RELATIVELY WARMER GULF STREAM WATERS WILL SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS WELL EAST OF THE ERN SEABOARD. ..PETERS.. 12/16/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Dec 17 05:36:39 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 17 Dec 2004 00:36:39 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200412170538.iBH5ch908208@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 170536 SWODY2 SPC AC 170535 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1135 PM CST THU DEC 16 2004 VALID 181200Z - 191200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... OVERALL UPPER AIR PATTERN TO REMAIN GENERALLY UNCHANGED THIS PERIOD WITH LARGE...DEEPENING TROUGH REMAINING OVER THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE CONUS AND A RIDGE PERSISTING OVER THE WEST. THOUGH SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN WRN RIDGE LATE IN THE PERIOD...TROUGH AXIS SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH 19/12Z. WITH REINFORCING SURGE OF CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS THE ERN U.S. AND HIGH PRESSURE AT BOTH THE SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER THE WEST...LITTLE THREAT FOR THUNDER APPEARS TO EXIST THIS PERIOD. ..GOSS.. 12/17/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Dec 17 17:38:28 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 17 Dec 2004 12:38:28 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200412171740.iBHHeU916388@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 171724 SWODY2 SPC AC 171723 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1123 AM CST FRI DEC 17 2004 VALID 181200Z - 191200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER TROUGH BECOMING BETTER DEFINED OVER THE ERN U.S. DURING THE DAY 1 PERIOD WILL DEEPEN ON DAY 2 AS A PORTION OF THE ARCTIC VORTEX MOVES SWD TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION. 12Z ETA/GFS AGREE THAT THE ERN TROUGH WILL DEEPEN...BUT THE GFS INDICATED A DEEPER TROUGH THAN THE ETA BY 12Z SUNDAY. SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH PORTION OF ARCTIC VORTEX IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NRN GREAT LAKES BY 19/00Z AND THEN TRACK ESEWD TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. NWLY WINDS IN THE WAKE THIS SURFACE LOW AND TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD ARCTIC AIR MASS /-20 TO -26 AT 850 MB/ SSEWD ACROSS LAKES SUPERIOR/MICHIGAN/HURON BY 12Z SUNDAY. A CONTINUED INFLUX OF STABLE CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR MASS SWD ACROSS CONUS INTO GULF OF MEXICO WILL RESULT IN MINIMAL TSTM THREATS OVER THE COUNTRY. ONE EXCEPTION TO THIS NULL FORECAST IS DOWNWIND OF LAKES SUPERIOR AND MICHIGAN LATE IN THE DAY 2 PERIOD ASSOCIATED WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW. ETA/ETAKF POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BECOME DEEP ENOUGH WITH STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AS THE COLD AIR SPREADS SSEWD ATOP WARM LAKE TEMPERATURES /LS AT 4-5C AND 7C ACROSS SRN LM/ PER LATEST NOAA COASTWATCH DATA ANALYSIS. THUS...A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE HEAVIEST LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS DOWNWIND OF LAKES SUPERIOR AND MICHIGAN SATURDAY NIGHT. ..PETERS.. 12/17/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Dec 18 06:06:15 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 18 Dec 2004 01:06:15 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200412180608.iBI68F931994@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 180606 SWODY2 SPC AC 180605 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1205 AM CST SAT DEC 18 2004 VALID 191200Z - 201200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE ERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EWD THIS PERIOD...WHILE SECOND FEATURE INITIALLY COMING ONSHORE ACROSS WRN CANADA WILL BEGIN EXPANDING / DIGGING SEWD ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES WITH TIME. DESPITE PRESENCE OF STRONG SURFACE TROUGH IN LEE OF THE ROCKIES AND A COLD FRONT DROPPING SEWD ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES / NRN PLAINS AHEAD OF WRN UPPER FEATURE...DRY CONTINENTAL AIRMASS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE CONUS. THEREFORE...LITTLE THREAT FOR THUNDER IS ANTICIPATED. ..GOSS.. 12/18/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Dec 18 17:29:42 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 18 Dec 2004 12:29:42 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200412181731.iBIHVfla030947@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 181729 SWODY2 SPC AC 181728 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1128 AM CST SAT DEC 18 2004 VALID 191200Z - 201200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE ERN U.S. WILL DEEPEN AS A PORTION OF THE ARCTIC VORTEX...WHICH WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY...IS EXPECTED TO DIG SEWD OVER THE TN VALLEY TO CAROLINAS BY 12Z MONDAY. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO SHIFT EWD AS UPSTREAM PACIFIC TROUGH BREAKS DOWN RIDGE LOCATED ACROSS WRN NORTH AMERICA. ...GREAT LAKES... A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE BEGINNING OF DAY 2 ALONG/DOWNWIND OF LAKE MI FROM WRN LOWER MI INTO NWRN IND WHERE CONVECTIVE SNOW BANDS SHOULD STILL BE DEEP ENOUGH FOR LIGHTNING PRODUCTION. HOWEVER...THIS THREAT WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. SHORT WAVE RIDGING ACROSS WRN GREAT LAKES IN WAKE OF ARCTIC TROUGH WILL RESULT IN RISING HEIGHTS/DECREASING BOUNDARY LAYER DEPTH FOR CONVECTIVE SNOW BAND POTENTIAL IN LEE OF LS/LM. COLD AIR ADVECTION PER NLY WINDS DEVELOPING FROM THE SFC-700 MB ACROSS LH/LE IN THE WAKE OF ARCTIC SURFACE FRONT WILL SUPPORT INCREASING SNOW BAND THREAT SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CLOUD DEPTH MAY BE DEEP ENOUGH FOR A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO...BUT OVERALL THREAT/AREAL COVERAGE DOES NOT WARRANT A TSTM OUTLOOK. ...MID ATLANTIC REGION... ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE E/SE ACROSS THE ERN STATES SUNDAY AND OFF THE ERN SEABOARD LATE SUNDAY. STRONG HEIGHT FALLS ALONG/OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ASSOCIATED WITH DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH WILL INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS OFFSHORE BY LATE DAY 2. INCREASED UVVS IN THIS REGION COMBINED WITH COLD AIR SPREADING EWD ATOP RELATIVELY WARMER ATLANTIC WATERS SHOULD SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM THREAT OFFSHORE. ..PETERS.. 12/18/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Dec 19 04:48:57 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 18 Dec 2004 23:48:57 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200412190450.iBJ4orIB011217@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 190449 SWODY2 SPC AC 190448 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1048 PM CST SAT DEC 18 2004 VALID 201200Z - 211200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE E COAST THIS PERIOD WHILE SECOND FEATURE DIGS SEWD FROM THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...A LARGE / BROAD TROUGH IS FORECAST TO EXTEND ACROSS THE ENTIRE CONUS. AT THE SURFACE...DEEP LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS ONTARIO...WHILE STRONG COLD FRONT SURGES SEWD FROM THE NRN ROCKIES / NRN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES / MID MS VALLEY / SRN PLAINS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. PARTIALLY-MODIFIED BOUNDARY-LAYER AIRMASS IS FORECAST TO BEGIN RETURNING NWD INTO THE S CENTRAL U.S. FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AS SURFACE HIGH RETREATS EWD. HOWEVER...AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION ACROSS COASTAL TX / LA WILL LIKELY BE INSUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. ELSEWHERE...STABLE LOWER TROPOSPHERE WILL REMAIN UNSUPPORTIVE OF DEEP MOIST CONVECTION. ..GOSS.. 12/19/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Dec 19 17:30:21 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 19 Dec 2004 12:30:21 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200412191732.iBJHWGex012907@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 191729 SWODY2 SPC AC 191728 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1128 AM CST SUN DEC 19 2004 VALID 201200Z - 211200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... CURRENT WV IMAGERY SHOWED PACIFIC TROUGH BREAKING DOWN THE UPPER RIDGE...THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE ACROSS WRN CANADA INTO THE PAC NW. THIS TROUGH WILL TRACK ESEWD ON MONDAY TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY REGION...AS HEIGHTS RISE UPSTREAM OVER THE NERN PACIFIC TO SERN AK. THIS BUILDING RIDGE WILL ALLOW A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TO MOVE SSEWD OVER THE GREAT BASIN/ROCKIES...CARVING OUT A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS BY 12Z TUESDAY. AT THE SURFACE...LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEAD UPPER TROUGH WILL TRACK FROM SRN MANITOBA TO LAKE SUPERIOR THIS PERIOD WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING E/SE ACROSS THE MS VALLEY/PLAINS STATES. THIS FRONT SHOULD REACH A LINE FROM LM SSWWD TO THE OZARKS TO FAR NRN TX BY 12Z TUESDAY. SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE FAR WRN GULF ON MONDAY AS HEIGHTS FALL IN ADVANCE OF THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS THE COASTAL AREA OF TX AND NEWD INTO ERN TX/LOWER MS VALLEY IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT. THE QUALITY OF THIS MOISTURE RETURN IS EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT MEAGER GIVEN THE RECENT INTRUSIONS OF CP AIR MASSES DEEP INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO BASIN. THE ETA APPEARS TO BE TOO AGGRESSIVE SHOWING SURFACE DEWPOINTS AROUND 60 TO THE SRN/CENTRAL TX COAST BY 12Z TUESDAY. DESPITE A PLUME OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SPREADING ESEWD OVER THIS AREA...INCREASING TEMPERATURES IN THE 800-600 MB LAYER WILL EFFECTIVELY CAP THE LOW-LEVEL DESTABILIZATION WHICH WILL BE MARKED BY LOWER 50S SURFACE DEWPOINTS REACHING THE TX COAST/SRN LA. ..PETERS.. 12/19/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Dec 20 05:44:37 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 20 Dec 2004 00:44:37 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200412200546.iBK5kU5A026664@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 200543 SWODY2 SPC AC 200542 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1142 PM CST SUN DEC 19 2004 VALID 211200Z - 221200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PSX 35 S FTW 20 SW ADM 30 W MLC 50 NE LIT 45 NNE MKL 20 WSW BWG 50 SSE BNA 20 WNW TCL 50 SE MEI 10 SW PNS. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE / BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CONUS IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY / DEEPEN THIS PERIOD AS A COUPLE OF SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS DIG CYCLONICALLY SEWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES TOWARD THE SRN PLAINS. AS THESE SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS APPROACH...SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE SRN PLAINS SHOULD STRENGTHEN. SRN PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO PERSIST FROM NERN TX ENEWD INTO THE TN VALLEY THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD...AND WILL LIKELY FOCUS SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWER / THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS / LOWER MS VALLEY REGION AS UPPER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES. THOUGH SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED / SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE THROUGH THE PERIOD...INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BE LIMITED -- PARTICULARLY AWAY FROM THE GULF COAST INVOF SURFACE BOUNDARY. THOUGH A LIMITED SEVERE THREAT MAY EVOLVE ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON / EVENING...QUESTIONS REGARDING AVAILABLE INSTABILITY PRECLUDE THE INTRODUCTION OF SEVERE PROBABILITIES ATTM. ..GOSS.. 12/20/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Dec 21 05:54:28 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 21 Dec 2004 00:54:28 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200412210556.iBL5uuar025665@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 210555 SWODY2 SPC AC 210552 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1152 PM CST MON DEC 20 2004 VALID 221200Z - 231200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE GLS 40 NW LCH 10 SE ESF 40 SSW JAN 35 WSW TCL 30 S ANB 10 NE ABY 30 WNW CTY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE CRP 30 NW VCT 45 SW CLL 40 ESE CLL 10 SSW LFK 25 W SHV 40 E ELD 25 SW UOX 50 N MSL 40 NNW CSV 35 S 5I3 PSK 15 SSW DAN 35 WSW FLO 25 WSW SSI 40 SSE CTY. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION... ...SYNOPSIS... HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS THE CONUS THIS PERIOD...WITH LARGE-SCALE TROUGH AND CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE CONUS. SHORT-WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN LARGER-SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW -- INITIALLY FORECAST NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION -- WILL SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE SRN PLAINS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT INITIALLY FORECAST FROM THE UPPER OH / TN VALLEYS SWWD INTO LA / SERN TX SHOULD SHARPEN / MOVE EWD AHEAD OF UPPER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH...AND IS EXPECTED TO REACH A POSITION ROUGHLY ALONG THE APPALACHIANS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. ...UPPER TX COAST EWD TO SWRN GA / THE FL PANHANDLE... RAIN / THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ACROSS PARTS OF ERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION IN ZONE OF STRONG QG FORCING AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH / JET STREAK. THOUGH SLY FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES AHEAD OF FRONT...LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS OVER THE NRN GULF REMAINS INCOMPLETELY MODIFIED...WITH GENERALLY LOW TO MID 50S DEWPOINTS OBSERVED ATTM. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY OVERDONE WITH DEGREE OF MOISTURE RETURN...AND THIS COMBINED WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF WIDESPREAD CLOUDS / PRECIPITATION SUGGEST ONLY LIMITED DESTABILIZATION LIKELY. NONETHELESS...DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD SHOULD INCREASE WITH TIME OVER THE WARM SECTOR...BECOMING SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED / ROTATING CONVECTION. THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT RISK ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...WITH PRIMARY THREATS BEING LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO. THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED HOWEVER DUE TO OVERALL LACK OF INSTABILITY. ..GOSS.. 12/21/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Dec 21 06:33:08 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 21 Dec 2004 01:33:08 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200412210635.iBL6Zasw008187@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 210633 SWODY2 SPC AC 210632 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1232 AM CST TUE DEC 21 2004 VALID 221200Z - 231200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE GLS 40 NW LCH 10 SE ESF 40 SSW JAN 35 WSW TCL 30 S ANB 10 NE ABY 30 WNW CTY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE CRP 30 NW VCT 45 SW CLL 40 ESE CLL 10 SSW LFK 25 W SHV 40 E ELD 25 SW UOX 50 N MSL 40 NNW CSV 35 S 5I3 PSK 15 SSW DAN 35 WSW FLO 25 WSW SSI 40 SSE CTY. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION... ...SYNOPSIS... HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS THE CONUS THIS PERIOD...WITH LARGE-SCALE TROUGH AND CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE CONUS. SHORT-WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN LARGER-SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW -- INITIALLY FORECAST NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION -- WILL SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE SRN PLAINS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT INITIALLY FORECAST FROM THE UPPER OH / TN VALLEYS SWWD INTO LA / SERN TX SHOULD SHARPEN / MOVE EWD AHEAD OF UPPER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH...AND IS EXPECTED TO REACH A POSITION ROUGHLY ALONG THE APPALACHIANS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. ...UPPER TX COAST EWD TO SWRN GA / THE FL PANHANDLE... RAIN / THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ACROSS PARTS OF ERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION IN ZONE OF STRONG QG FORCING AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH / JET STREAK. THOUGH SLY FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES AHEAD OF FRONT...LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS OVER THE NRN GULF REMAINS INCOMPLETELY MODIFIED...WITH GENERALLY LOW TO MID 50S DEWPOINTS OBSERVED ATTM. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY OVERDONE WITH DEGREE OF MOISTURE RETURN...AND THIS COMBINED WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF WIDESPREAD CLOUDS / PRECIPITATION SUGGEST ONLY LIMITED DESTABILIZATION LIKELY. NONETHELESS...DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD SHOULD INCREASE WITH TIME OVER THE WARM SECTOR...BECOMING SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED / ROTATING CONVECTION. THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT RISK ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...WITH PRIMARY THREATS BEING LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO. THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED HOWEVER DUE TO OVERALL LACK OF INSTABILITY. ..GOSS.. 12/21/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Dec 21 17:06:11 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 21 Dec 2004 12:06:11 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200412211708.iBLH8bCo020817@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 211706 SWODY2 SPC AC 211705 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1105 AM CST TUE DEC 21 2004 VALID 221200Z - 231200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 E PSX 40 WNW HOU POE ESF MEI SEM MGM DHN MAI AQQ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSE CRP 35 ENE LRD COT SAT JKL 5I3 40 SW BLF 40 SSE TLH. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS GULF COASTAL PLAIN FROM SE TX TO WRN FL PANHANDLE... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF WRN/CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH DAY-2...RESULTING IN PRONOUNCED LONGWAVE TROUGH DOWNSTREAM FROM NERN PACIFIC REX BLOCK. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED SWD PLUNGE OF SEASONALLY COLD AIR MASS NOW COVERING MUCH OF CENTRAL PLAINS...UPPER MS VALLEY AND SRN HIGH PLAINS. ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT SHOULD REACH CENTRAL/SRN APPALACHIANS...NWRN GA...AND SRN AL BY END OF PERIOD. MEANWHILE...AIR MASS MODIFICATION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WARM SECTOR...AIDED BY MID-UPPER 70S F SST OBSERVED IN CENTRAL/SRN OPEN GULF. BY DAY-2...NEAR EQUILIBRIUM DEW POINTS OF UPPER 60S F ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OPEN GULF...WITH MID 60S OVER SHELF WATERS...AND LOW-MID 60S POSSIBLE OVER COASTAL AREAS. ...GULF COAST STATES... SCATTERED-NUMEROUS TSTMS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT BEGINNING OF PERIOD ACROSS PORTIONS SW TX AND LA..IN LOW LEVEL WAA REGIME...ALONG/AHEAD OF INITIAL COLD FRONT. REF SPC DAY-1 OUTLOOK FOR DETAILS. EXPECT ASSOCIATED BAND OF CONVECTION TO SHIFT EWD ACROSS NRN GULF AND ADJACENT COASTAL AREAS...WITH FAVORABLE SHEAR AND INFLOW LAYER BUOYANCY TO SUPPORT SEVERE POTENTIAL. MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING GUSTS...WITH ISOLATED HAIL POSSIBLE. A FEW SUPERCELLS MAY FORM AHEAD OF FRONTAL BAND OVER GULF...MOVING ASHORE THEN WEAKENING INLAND AS THEY ENCOUNTER WEAKER INSTABILITY. TORNADO PROBABILITIES THEREFORE SHOULD BE GREATEST ALONG IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS WHERE RICHEST BOUNDARY LAYER THETAE WILL BE...AND LIFTED PARCELS CLOSEST TO BEING SFC-BASED. PRECURSORY CLOUDS/PRECIP AND SELY BOUNDARY LAYER TRAJECTORIES FROM INCOMPLETELY MODIFIED CONTINENTAL AIR MASS WILL EACH CONTRIBUTE TO WEAKENING INSTABILITY WITH INLAND EXTENT. HOWEVER...BECAUSE OF STRENGTH/DEPTH OF BAROCLINIC ZONE...SLAB OF FORCED FRONTAL ASCENT MAY YIELD NARROW AND WELL DEFINED SQUALL LINE ACROSS PORTIONS INLAND MS/AL...TN AND NWRN GA...EMBEDDED WITHIN BROADER PRECIP AREA. A FEW GUSTS WITH SUCH A LINE MAY REACH SVR LIMITS...WITH OCCASIONAL WIND DAMAGE POSSIBLE. ..EDWARDS.. 12/21/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Dec 22 05:41:17 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 22 Dec 2004 00:41:17 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200412220543.iBM5hgBD018549@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 220541 SWODY2 SPC AC 220540 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1140 PM CST TUE DEC 21 2004 VALID 231200Z - 241200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM AQQ 25 NNW ABY 35 ENE MCN 25 SW CLT 10 N RDU 30 ESE ECG ...CONT... MLB 15 S FMY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE CEW 15 N LGC 15 SSE LOZ HLG 45 NNE UCA PWM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THE SERN CONUS... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CONUS IS FORECAST TO BECOME EVEN MORE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED THIS PERIOD AS IT MOVES SLOWLY EWD. INITIAL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH -- EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE TN VALLEY AT THE START OF THE PERIOD -- WILL LIFT NEWD AWAY FROM THE MORE FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT FORECAST OVER THE SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER...COLD FRONT WILL NONETHELESS MOVE STEADILY EWD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COAST STATES AND EVENTUALLY OFFSHORE. TRAILING PORTION OF THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS S FL AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. ...ATLANTIC COASTAL STATES FROM NC SWD TO FL... THOUGH STRONGER UPPER FORCING IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NW OF THE REGION...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COASTAL REGION THIS PERIOD. LOW 60S DEWPOINTS SHOULD SPREAD NWD INTO THE ERN CAROLINAS AHEAD OF FRONT...BUT WEAK LAPSE RATES DUE TO CLOUDS / ONGOING PRECIPITATION ALONG FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR DESTABILIZATION. NONETHELESS...DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD WILL REMAIN STRONG ACROSS THIS REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD -- PARTICULARLY FROM NRN FL NWD. THEREFORE...DESPITE RELATIVELY LIMITED INSTABILITY...A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS OR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO WITH A FEW STRONGER STORMS / STORM SEGMENTS WILL EXIST -- MAINLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF GA AND THE CAROLINAS. ..GOSS.. 12/22/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Dec 24 17:33:52 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 24 Dec 2004 12:33:52 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200412241736.iBOHaO8l012604@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 241734 SWODY2 SPC AC 241733 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1133 AM CST FRI DEC 24 2004 VALID 251200Z - 261200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNW PIE 20 SE DAB. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SOUTH FL... A STALLED FRONT OVER SOUTH FL WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY AS AN UPPER-LOW APPROACHES QUICKLY FROM THE WEST. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS A SFC LOW ORGANIZES AND MOVES EWD ACROSS THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE AND ASCENT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL AID STORM DEVELOPMENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON. STORM COVERAGE SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION SATURDAY EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR 00Z SUNDAY ACROSS SOUTH FL SHOW VERY STRONG DEEP SHEAR PROFILES. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A FAST STORM MOVEMENT AND A FEW ORGANIZED CELLS. THE SFC LOW WILL LIKELY MOVE ACROSS THE PENINSULA DURING THE EVENING HOURS WHICH WILL PULL SFC DEWPOINTS FROM AROUND 70 F NWD. THIS COMBINED WITH LOW-LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL RESULT IN A MARGINAL TORNADO THREAT. IN ADDITION...STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CREATE A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...WARM AIR ALOFT AND RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP THE SEVERE POTENTIAL VERY ISOLATED. ..BROYLES.. 12/24/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Dec 25 05:30:24 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 25 Dec 2004 00:30:24 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200412250532.iBP5WsT0001198@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 250531 SWODY2 SPC AC 250530 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1130 PM CST FRI DEC 24 2004 VALID 261200Z - 271200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE SRQ 35 SE DAB. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST... MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY MOVING INTO S TX IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE INTO AN OPEN WAVE DURING THE DAY 1 PERIOD AS IT TRANSLATES ENEWD ACROSS THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE WRN FL COAST AT THE START OF THE FORECAST...PRIOR TO ACCELERATING RAPIDLY NEWD AHEAD OF STRONGER NRN STREAM TROUGH SHIFTING EWD ACROSS THE NERN STATES. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...PRIMARY SURFACE LOW ATTENDANT TO THE SRN STREAM DISTURBANCE /INITIALLY OFF THE SC COAST/ WILL DEVELOP NEWD ALONG GULF STREAM WHILE TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHES QUICKLY SEWD THROUGH THE SRN FL PENINSULA. TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT THE ONSET OF THE DAY 2 PERIOD FROM VICINITY OF SURFACE LOW SWWD ALONG COLD FRONT INTO THE CNTRL/SRN FL PENINSULA WHERE A FEW LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ANY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL LIKELY REMAIN OFFSHORE WHERE BEST COMBINATION OF FORCING...WIND SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL COEXIST. ..MEAD.. 12/25/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Dec 25 17:28:13 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 25 Dec 2004 12:28:13 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200412251730.iBPHUh1m001783@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 251728 SWODY2 SPC AC 251727 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1127 AM CST SAT DEC 25 2004 VALID 261200Z - 271200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 WSW MIA 35 ENE ORL. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... A VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT QUICKLY EWD ACROSS FL TONIGHT...DRIVING A SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD FRONT OFF THE FL COAST SUNDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL RAPIDLY COME TO AN END ALONG THE ERN FL PENINSULA JUST AFTER DAYBREAK SUNDAY AS DRY AIR ADVECTION INTENSIFIES BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM. ELSEWHERE...A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BECOME ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE CNTRL US MAKING CONDITIONS UNFAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE CONUS ON DAY 2. ..BROYLES.. 12/25/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Dec 26 05:49:19 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 26 Dec 2004 00:49:19 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200412260551.iBQ5pje1006301@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 260549 SWODY2 SPC AC 260548 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1148 PM CST SAT DEC 25 2004 VALID 271200Z - 281200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW SFO 25 ESE MRY 25 E SMX 20 W LAX. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST... AMPLIFICATION OF UPSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF AK WILL RESULT IN A SWD MOVEMENT OF MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW /CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR 46N/134W/ TO OFF THE CA COAST DURING THE DAY 2 PERIOD. MEANWHILE...DOWNSTREAM PATTERN WILL FLATTEN ACROSS THE ERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE NATION AS TROUGH INITIALLY OVER THE NERN STATES MOVES INTO THE ATLANTIC. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...BROAD SURFACE RIDGE FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EWD TOWARD THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. IN THE W...PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ONTO THE CNTRL CA COAST DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS THIS OCCURS...ENHANCED OROGRAPHIC ASCENT IN IMMEDIATE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN SHOWERY PRECIPITATION ALONG WINDWARD SIDE OF THE COASTAL RANGES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT GRADUALLY STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OWING TO CLOSE PROXIMITY OF MID-LEVEL COLD POOL MAY RESULT IN SOME WEAK INSTABILITY AND POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES. ..MEAD.. 12/26/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Dec 26 17:22:25 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 26 Dec 2004 12:22:25 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200412261724.iBQHOo5L031990@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 261722 SWODY2 SPC AC 261722 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1122 AM CST SUN DEC 26 2004 VALID 271200Z - 281200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WNW UKI 10 NW SJC 10 NNE PRB 20 W LAX. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... WATER VAPOR SHOWS A CLOSED OFF UPPER-LOW OFF THE PACIFIC NW COAST WHICH WILL QUICKLY DIG SWD TONIGHT AND SHOULD BE POSITIONED OFF THE COAST OF NRN CA ON MONDAY. STRONG LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IN THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THE NRN AND CNTRL CA COAST SHOW STEEP LAPSE RATES AT 21Z ON MONDAY WITH 500 MB TEMPS OF -23 TO -25 C. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WITH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. OTHERWISE...A BROAD RIDGE ALOFT AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE ERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE US WILL PROVIDE NO SUPPORT FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE DAY 2 PERIOD. ..BROYLES.. 12/26/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Dec 27 05:01:45 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 27 Dec 2004 00:01:45 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200412270504.iBR547ii026779@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 270501 SWODY2 SPC AC 270500 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1100 PM CST SUN DEC 26 2004 VALID 281200Z - 291200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW UKI 45 W SAC 35 ESE SJC 30 ENE PRB 15 ESE BFL 25 NNW DAG 45 ESE IGM 30 SE PRC 40 NE PHX 55 SE PHX 65 SSW TUS. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST... MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE NRN CA COAST IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE INTO AN OPEN WAVE AS IT TRANSLATES EWD INTO CA DURING THE DAY 2 PERIOD. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK PERTURBATION EJECTING NEWD FROM MAIN UPPER SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP INTO THE GREAT BASIN WITH PRIMARY SURFACE LOW APPROACHING THE SRN CA COAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. POCKETS OF WEAK INSTABILITY IN CONJUNCTION WITH LARGE-SCALE FORCING DOWNSTREAM FROM MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND ATTENDANT UPPER JET STREAK WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM SRN CA EWD INTO SRN AZ. DESPITE STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING SHEAR PROFILES AHEAD OF PRIMARY SURFACE LOW OVER THE L.A. BASIN...IT APPEARS THAT INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN QUITE LIMITED WITH NO SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST ATTM. ..MEAD.. 12/27/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Dec 27 16:33:56 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 27 Dec 2004 11:33:56 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200412271636.iBRGaHTK013890@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 271634 SWODY2 SPC AC 271633 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1033 AM CST MON DEC 27 2004 VALID 281200Z - 291200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW UKI 45 W SAC 35 ESE SJC 30 ENE PRB 15 ESE BFL 25 NNW DAG 45 ESE IGM 30 SE PRC 40 NE PHX 55 SE PHX 65 SSW TUS. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER LOW A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES WEST OF SAN FRANCISCO IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN ON TUESDAY AND BEGIN TO TRANSLATE INTO THE WRN STATES AS THE ALEUTIAN UPPER LOW DIGS SEWD. ...SRN CA... LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO STEEPEN ACROSS SRN CA TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INLAND. H5 TEMPERATURES DECREASING INTO THE MID MINUS 20S COUPLED WITH MID 50S SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT THERMAL BUOYANCY TO SUPPORT NUMEROUS TSTMS. STRONG CYCLONIC JET MAX ROTATING INTO THE REGION WILL SUPPLY VERTICAL SHEAR MORE THAN ENOUGH FOR ORGANIZED TSTMS WITH ISOLD SEVERE HAIL POSSIBLE. MOREOVER...THE FAVORED BACKED BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IN THE COASTAL VLYS OF SRN CA WILL AUGMENT LOW-LEVEL HELICITY AND THE RISK OF AN ISOLD WATERSPOUT/TORNADO WILL ALSO EXIST. ..RACY.. 12/27/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Dec 28 06:15:06 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 28 Dec 2004 01:15:06 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200412280617.iBS6HOVn008059@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 280615 SWODY2 SPC AC 280614 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1214 AM CST TUE DEC 28 2004 VALID 291200Z - 301200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 N MRY 40 W BFL 10 E EDW 15 NNW LAS 50 S SGU 20 WNW FLG 30 SSW SOW 20 SW SAD 25 SE FHU. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WSW ALO 50 SSW LSE 25 ESE MSN 10 SE CGX 15 NNE DNV 35 NE ALN 35 NE COU 15 ENE P35 40 WSW ALO. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW /CURRENTLY NEAR 36N/127W/ IS FORECAST TO OPEN AND EJECT NEWD INTO THE NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY 2 PERIOD. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODEL FORECASTS CONTINUE TO SHOW VARYING SOLUTIONS WITH REGARD TO THE INTENSITY AND TRACK OF ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW. LATEST ENSEMBLE MEAN INDICATES SURFACE LOW OVER N-CNTRL NEB BY 30/12Z WHICH STILL APPEARS TO BE A REASONABLE COMPROMISE ATTM...WITH WARM FRONT STRETCHING EWD INTO THE NRN OH VALLEY AND TRAILING COLD FRONT SWWD INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. ...SRN CA INTO AZ... LARGE-SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH EJECTING UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING...SUPPORTING SHOWERY PRECIPITATION ALONG AND BEHIND PACIFIC COLD FRONT. WHILE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL TEND TO LIMIT INSTABILITY...THE DYNAMIC FORCING IN CONJUNCTION WITH MODESTLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES /I.E. APPROACHING 7 C/KM/ SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO POCKETS OF WEAK INSTABILITY AND POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT. ...UPPER MIDWEST... DESPITE LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW...PERSISTENT WAA AND INCREASINGLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN SOME AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION LATE IN THE PERIOD ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN IA INTO IL. HERE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY FOR PARCELS BASED AROUND 850-860 MB. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH WAA REGIME ALONG NOSE OF SWLY 50-6O KT LLJ AXIS...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT. ..MEAD.. 12/28/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Dec 28 17:20:16 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 28 Dec 2004 12:20:16 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200412281722.iBSHMZwB005957@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 281720 SWODY2 SPC AC 281719 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1119 AM CST TUE DEC 28 2004 VALID 291200Z - 301200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ONP 45 NNW MFR 50 WSW MHS 20 SSW RBL 35 ESE SAC 25 N FAT 45 NE BFL 30 NW DAG 40 SW LAS 50 S SGU 35 ESE GCN 30 SSW SOW 20 SW SAD 25 SE FHU. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WSW ALO 45 SW LSE 20 ENE MSN 10 SE CGX 10 WSW DNV 35 SSE SPI 40 SW UIN 40 SSW OTM 40 WSW ALO. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... THE DEEP MID LEVEL LOW JUST OFF THE SRN CA COAST WILL BECOME AN OPEN WAVE /WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED SPEED MAXIMA/ AND EJECT ENEWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES/PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SEWD FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA. STEEP LAPSE RATES/WEAK INSTABILITY WILL ACCOMPANY THE EJECTING CA TROUGH ACROSS THE SW EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WHERE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER TOMORROW ACROSS THE ROCKIES AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INLAND AWAY FROM THE MOISTURE SOURCE AND LOSES AMPLITUDE...THOUGH VERY ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES STILL MAY OCCUR. LATE IN THE PERIOD...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS COASTAL AREAS OF NRN CA/ORE AS THE GULF OF ALASKA TROUGH MOVES INLAND. ELSEWHERE...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NEWD FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO THE MID MS VALLEY IN CONJUNCTION WITH LEE CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NRN PLAINS. ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN A STRONG WAA PATTERN LATE IN THE PERIOD ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY. ..THOMPSON.. 12/28/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Dec 29 06:05:51 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 29 Dec 2004 01:05:51 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200412290608.iBT685Tj007772@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 290605 SWODY2 SPC AC 290604 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1204 AM CST WED DEC 29 2004 VALID 301200Z - 311200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 N CID 15 NW MSN 45 SW MBL 10 ESE GRR 40 SE AZO 25 NNW BMG 10 SW SLO 45 WNW STL 30 S OTM 15 N CID. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY ROUNDING LARGER SCALE ERN PACIFIC TROUGH BASE /NEAR 30N 124W PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/ IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY DURING THE DAY 2 PERIOD AS IT TRANSLATES FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS INTO WRN GREAT LAKES. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP GENERALLY EWD FROM SERN MT...EVENTUALLY OCCLUDING OVER SRN L.S./UP OF MI BY 31/12Z. MEANWHILE...TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EWD INTO THE OH VALLEY AND EXTEND SWWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS BY FRIDAY MORNING. ...UPPER MIDWEST/SRN GREAT LAKES... LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIMITED WITHIN PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR OWING TO PERSISTENT RIDGING ACROSS THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO WITH DEWPOINTS ONLY INCREASING INTO THE 40S TO POSSIBLY 50F. HOWEVER...60-90 M/12 HR 500 MB HEIGHT FALLS DOWNSTREAM FROM APPROACHING TROUGH AND RESULTANT STEEPENING OF MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. TSTMS /LIKELY BASED ABOVE BOUNDARY-LAYER/ ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY POSSIBLE BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING INVOF OF THE MS RIVER WITHIN ZONE OF DEEP CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH SFC-850 MB FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME PROGRESSIVELY MORE ELEVATED WITH TIME AS IT MOVES/DEVELOPS EWD/NEWD INTO PORTIONS OF NWRN IND/SWRN MI. GIVEN THE COOL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES AND STEEP LAPSE RATES...POTENTIAL FOR SOME SMALL HAIL OR GRAUPEL WILL EXIST WITH STRONGEST STORMS. ..MEAD.. 12/29/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Dec 29 17:25:01 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 29 Dec 2004 12:25:01 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200412291727.iBTHRFEB018885@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 291724 SWODY2 SPC AC 291723 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1123 AM CST WED DEC 29 2004 VALID 301200Z - 311200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 N CID 40 SSE CWA 30 NNE PLN 60 ENE APN 70 NNE MTC 50 SSW JXN 25 WSW MTO 40 SSE UIN 40 SW BRL 15 N CID. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER LEVEL LOW NOW MOVING INTO THE WRN STATES WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EJECTING NEWD INTO THE PLAINS STATES THROUGH FRI. ONE SUCH IMPULSE...APPROACHING THE CNTRL CA COAST ATTM...WILL QUICKLY TRANSLATE EWD TO THE FOUR CORNERS BY 12Z THU...THE CORN BELT 00Z FRI AND TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY 12Z FRI. AT THE SURFACE...LEE LOW WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS THE DAKOTAS EARLY THU AND MOVE EWD TO LKSUP BY THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY. ATTACHED LEE TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE PLAINS AND REACH A MI-NW IND-MO LINE BY 12Z/31. A FEW TSTMS MAY DEVELOP VCNTY THIS TROUGH OVERNIGHT THU. ...MIDWEST... PRE-TROUGH WARM SECTOR WILL GRADUALLY MOISTEN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...OWING TO INCREASING SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER SYSTEM. QUALITY OF MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...THOUGH...AS GULF AIR MASS WILL ONLY BE PARTIALLY MODIFIED. AS A RESULT... INSTABILITY WILL BE MEAGER AND PROSPECTS FOR SURFACE-BASED STORMS WILL BE LOW DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. AS STRONG HEIGHT FALLS/STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH BEGIN TO SPREAD EWD THURSDAY NIGHT...WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY/UVV MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW TSTMS THURSDAY NIGHT FROM NRN IL-SRN WI EWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES. TSTMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE...THOUGH WITH COOL THERMODYNAMICS PROFILES...SMALL HAIL MAY OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. ..RACY.. 12/29/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Dec 30 06:25:57 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 30 Dec 2004 01:25:57 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200412300628.iBU6S8Ox011679@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 300625 SWODY2 SPC AC 300624 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1224 AM CST THU DEC 30 2004 VALID 311200Z - 011200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE DTW 25 NW TOL 15 SE GRR 30 WSW HTL 15 ESE APN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 E GAG 50 SSE DDC 25 S RSL 20 E SLN 10 E UMN 55 S HRO 25 ENE PGO 35 NW MLC 50 E GAG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S ONP 25 ENE CEC 45 ENE UKI 35 WNW MER 15 NW PRB 30 SSW PRB. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN IS FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY 2 PERIOD WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TRANSLATING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...AND FROM THE CNTRL CA COAST INTO THE NRN AND CNTRL ROCKIES. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EWD ACROSS THE NERN STATES WITH WWD EXTENSION OF BOUNDARY REMAINING QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS AND ANCHORED TO LOW PRESSURE OVER ERN CO. IN THE W...PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EWD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND DESERT SW. ...CNTRL GREAT LAKES... MODERATELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES /7-7.5 C/KM/ COUPLED WITH FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE REGION MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A FEW ELEVATED TSTMS ON FRIDAY MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF LOWER MI. ANY ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO SERN ONTARIO BY AFTERNOON. ...KS/OK/MO/AR... SLY LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES. ISENTROPIC ASCENT OF RETURNING...MODIFIED GULF AIR MASS ALONG LLJ AXIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND POTENTIAL FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE PERIOD...MAINLY ALONG/S OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ...ORE COAST SWD TO CNTRL CA COAST... COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES OF -28 TO -30 C AT 500 MB AND RESULTANT STEEP LAPSE RATES ON CYCLONIC SIDE OF MID/UPPER-LEVEL JET AXIS MAY SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW TSTMS EARLY IN THE FORECAST ALONG THE COASTAL RANGES. THUNDER POTENTIAL SHOULD DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT OWING TO HEIGHT RISES AND WEAKENING LAPSE RATES WITH PASSAGE OF MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE E. ..MEAD.. 12/30/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Dec 30 17:16:13 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 30 Dec 2004 12:16:13 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200412301718.iBUHINWE019736@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 301712 SWODY2 SPC AC 301711 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1111 AM CST THU DEC 30 2004 VALID 311200Z - 011200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE DTW 15 NW ARB 25 SW MBS 20 E HTL 15 ESE APN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WNW END 25 E LBL 45 NNE GCK 10 ESE RSL 20 E SLN 10 E UMN 55 S HRO 25 ENE PGO 35 NW MLC 50 WNW END. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NE AST 20 ESE CEC 35 E ACV 30 SE RBL 40 E SCK 45 NNE BFL 15 SSE BFL 10 W SMX. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER TROUGH NOW EMERGING ONTO THE CNTRL/NRN HIGH PLAINS WILL DEAMPLIFY AND SHEAR EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND BY NEW YEARS DAY. UPSTREAM COMPLEX UPPER LOW WILL SETTLE SWD ALONG THE PAC NW COAST. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL EJECT EWD FROM THIS SYSTEM...THE STRONGEST OF WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS CA EARLY FRIDAY AND THEN TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY EARLY NEW YEARS DAY. AT THE SURFACE...IN WAKE OF THE FIRST UPPER DISTURBANCE...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SWD THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS FRONT WILL PROBABLY STALL IN THE CNTRL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST AS LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS AHEAD OF THE UPSTREAM FOUR CORNERS TROUGH BY NEW YEARS DAY. ...ERN MI... AS THE SHEARING UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...LARGE SCALE ASCENT COUPLED WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW ELEVATED TSTMS EARLY FRIDAY ACROSS ERN MI. THESE TSTMS WILL MOVE INTO SWRN ONTARIO BY MID-DAY. ...PAC COAST... COLD H5 TEMPERATURES WITHIN CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ALONG THE PAC COAST FROM ORE SWD INTO CNTRL CA ON FRIDAY. HIGHEST TSTM POTENTIAL WILL BE EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS WARMING MIDLEVELS/HEIGHT RISES QUICKLY TRANSLATE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. ...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS... LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BACK ACROSS THE SRN/CNTRL PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT OWING TO APPROACH OF THE UPSTREAM TROUGH. STRONGEST ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD EVOLVE ACROSS SRN KS/NRN OK WHERE ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A FEW TSTMS. ..RACY.. 12/30/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Dec 31 06:31:02 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 31 Dec 2004 01:31:02 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200412310633.iBV6X9H6019408@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 310631 SWODY2 SPC AC 310630 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1230 AM CST FRI DEC 31 2004 VALID 011200Z - 021200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW CLM 25 E AST 25 SW EUG 10 NW CEC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E PSX 35 WSW LFK DAL 60 WSW SPS LTS DDC OLU MCW DBQ MTO 20 W EVV MKL GWO 30 E MCB 35 SE HUM. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... LITTLE CHANGE TO THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN IS FORECAST THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH POLAR LOW REMAINING CENTERED NORTHEAST OF HUDSON BAY...WHILE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO/CARIBBEAN. A BROAD TROUGH WILL ALSO PERSIST IN THE SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES AND THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE POLAR WESTERLIES...FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC THROUGH THE WESTERN/NORTHERN U.S...WITH A NUMBER OF EMBEDDED...PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVES. ONE SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS ALREADY PROGRESSING OUT OF WESTERN TROUGH INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGION. MODELS SUGGEST THIS FEATURE WILL ACCELERATE ACROSS NORTH ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS BY EARLY SATURDAY...AHEAD OF SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE ROTATING AROUND CANADIAN VORTEX. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOUTHWARD SURGE OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST STATES. DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS EXIST WITH HOW THIS IS HANDLED...BUT SHALLOW SURFACE FRONT APPEARS LIKELY AS FAR SOUTH AS THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS BY EARLY SATURDAY. THIS AIR MASS MAY BE SLOWER TO MODIFY THAN INDICATED BY MODELS...BUT BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME FOCUS FOR ANOTHER DEVELOPING SURFACE CYCLONE AS NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTS OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. ...CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... LOW-LEVEL MOIST TONGUE WITH MID 50S/LOWER 60S DEW POINTS IS ALREADY PRESENT ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST WEAK DESTABILIZATION SUFFICIENT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION INCREASES IN ASSOCIATION WITH DEVELOPING SURFACE WAVE. THIS APPEARS MOST LIKELY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM PARTS OF EASTERN KANSAS INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. STRONGER ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND LIFTING TO LEVELS OF FREE CONVECTION APPEAR LIKELY TO OCCUR ABOVE SHALLOW SURFACE-BASED INVERSION LAYER. GIVEN WEAK CAPE...THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE THREAT DESPITE LIKELIHOOD OF FAVORABLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. ...SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... SOUTHERN FRINGE OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH MAY WEAKEN MID-LEVEL INHIBITION SUFFICIENTLY FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO THE SOUTH OF SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE. FRONT WILL SURGE DEEPER INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT... IN WAKE OF SURFACE LOW LIFTING INTO THE MID/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP NEAR DRY LINE/COLD FRONT LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN TEXAS/OKLAHOMA. HOWEVER...BETTER CHANCE FOR ACTIVITY APPEARS TO EXIST TO THE EAST LATER SATURDAY NIGHT...IN PROXIMITY TO SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS SHIFTING INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WITH CAPE LIMITED DUE TO MARGINAL MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...TIMING OF DEVELOPMENT MAINLY AFTER DARK...AFTER ONSET OF RADIATIONAL COOLING IN BOUNDARY LAYER...CURRENTLY IS EXPECTED TO MINIMIZE SEVERE THREAT. ...WESTERN/CENTRAL GULF COAST... FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES COULD ENHANCE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME NEAR UPPER TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTAL AREAS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN WEAK LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND CONTINUING PRESENCE OF SURFACE RIDGING PROGGED BY MODELS ACROSS THIS REGION...RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS MINIMAL AT THE PRESENT TIME. ..KERR.. 12/31/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Dec 31 17:19:36 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 31 Dec 2004 12:19:36 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200412311721.iBVHLhfU004918@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 311719 SWODY2 SPC AC 311718 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1118 AM CST FRI DEC 31 2004 VALID 011200Z - 021200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW CLM 25 E AST 25 SW EUG 10 NW CEC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E PSX 35 WSW LFK DAL 10 WSW OLU 25 SSW RWF 35 E MKT 15 NE DBQ MTO 20 W EVV MKL GWO 30 E MCB 35 SE HUM. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT FROM PERSISTENT PAC NW UPPER LOW TODAY...TRAVELING FROM CA TO THE UPPER MS VLY BY 12Z/2. A WEAKER SUBTROPICAL JET STREAK WILL MOVE FROM BAJA NEWD TOWARD THE WRN GULF BASIN BY LATE SATURDAY. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...LEE CO LOW WILL INTENSIFY SATURDAY AND MOVE NEWD TOWARD WI. ATTENDANT LEE TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE PLAINS WHILE A COLD FRONT MOVES SEWD TOWARD IA/KS. ...ERN PLAINS TO UPPER MS VLY... MOIST SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH/SURFACE LOW WILL REINFORCE THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS THE ERN PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY. TSTM PROBABILITIES WILL INCREASE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT FROM ERN OK-ERN KS-WRN MO-SRN IA AS THE LEE-TROUGH/LOW/60 METER PER 12 HOUR H5 HEIGHT FALLS APPROACH. AFTERNOON WARM SECTOR MAY REMAIN CAPPED...DEPENDING ON MAGNITUDE OF HEATING. MORE LIKELY SCENARIO WILL BE FOR NOCTURNAL ELEVATED TSTMS TO DEVELOP ALONG LLJ AXIS FROM THE OZARKS NEWD INTO THE UPPER MS VLY. INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED AND PRIND THAT WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS WILL NOT OCCUR DESPITE FAVORABLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. ...WRN GULF COASTAL AREA... AS THE SUBTROPICAL JETLET APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT...CONVECTIVE THREAT WILL INCREASE ALONG THE WRN GULF COASTAL AREA VERY LATE SATURDAY. THESE TSTMS COULD BE MORE SURFACE BASED THAN FARTHER N. MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS WILL BE THE RATHER POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXPECTED THAT WILL MITIGATE THE OVERALL INSTABILITY. ...PAC COAST... PERSISTENT ONSHORE PACIFIC BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BENEATH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITHIN CYCLONIC SIDE OF UPPER JET AXIS WILL MAINTAIN ISOLD THUNDER THREAT ACROSS THE WA/OR/NRN CA COAST ON SATURDAY. HIGHEST POTENTIAL WILL EXIST OVER THE OFFSHORE COASTAL ZONES. ..RACY.. 12/31/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.