[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 200710
SWODY2
SPC AC 200709

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0209 AM CDT FRI AUG 20 2004

VALID 211200Z - 221200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NE CTB 35 W LWT 40
N WRL 20 SSE CPR 30 SW BFF 40 WNW MHN 30 N LBF 25 WNW GAG 10 ENE CSM
10 NE MLC 70 ESE HRO 15 ESE CKV 25 ESE AOO 30 W ALB 30 WNW EFK
...CONT... 15 ESE PSX 20 SE DRT ...CONT... 65 WNW MRF 45 NW GDP 65
NNW SVC 25 ENE PRC 55 WSW LAS 60 ENE MER 20 SE MHS 30 SSW ONP.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 NE MQT 25 S RHI 35
NE MCW 10 NE FSD 15 ESE PIR 50 WNW Y22 70 NNE OLF.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...NRN PLAINS INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES...
MODELS IN AGREEMENT IN MOVING FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ESEWD
ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES SATURDAY...THOUGH THERE ARE DIFFERENCES
IN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PLACEMENT.  ETA...ETAKF AND SHORT-RANGE
ENSEMBLE MEAN ALL DEEPEN A SURFACE LOW OVER N-CENTRAL ND WHICH
TRACKS EWD INTO NRN/CENTRAL MN OVERNIGHT...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE
LOW NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. HOWEVER...THERE IS AGREEMENT
IN DEVELOPING A SURFACE TROUGH FROM THE LOW CENTER INTO THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO THIS SYSTEM AS SLY 50+ KT H85 JET
DEVELOPS INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  THIS
WILL ALSO AID IN MOISTURE TRANSPORT WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS POSSIBLY
REACHING 50F NEAR LOW CENTER BY THE LATE AFTERNOON.  THE INCREASE IN
LARGE SCALE ASCENT/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...COMBINED WITH STRONG
HEATING ALONG AND WEST OF SURFACE TROUGH...MAY WEAKEN CAPPING AND
ALLOW A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY.  STRENGTH OF
SHEAR WARRANTS AT LEAST MENTION OF A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE QUALITY/AMOUNT
REMAINS QUESTIONABLE AND LIMITS CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPING SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT VIGOROUS MOIST CONVECTION DURING THE
AFTERNOON.  IT IS MORE LIKELY THAT CONVECTION WILL INCREASING WITHIN
LOW LEVEL WAA REGIME AFTER DARK.  HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN MEAGER AND LIMIT OVERALL
SEVERE THREAT. GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES ABOUT SURFACE LOW PLACEMENT AND
AVAILABLE INSTABILITY...WILL ONLY FORECAST LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES
ATTM.

...CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS...
LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STEEP ACROSS THIS REGION AS
STRONG AFTERNOON HEATING OCCURS...WITH MLCAPES LIKELY AROUND 1500
J/KG.  WEAK IMPULSES ALOFT MAY SHIFT SEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
DURING THE DAY AND AID IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND JUST
EAST OF THE LEE TROUGH.  IN ADDITION...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN
MODEST /I.E. 20-30 KT/ AS WNWLY MID LEVEL WINDS OVERSPREAD SSELY
UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW.  THIS MAY ALLOW A FEW CLUSTERS TO FORM AND
SUSTAIN AT LEAST A LOW PROBABILITY THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS
ACTIVITY MOVES ESEWD THROUGH THE EVENING.

...NRN MID ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND COAST...
MODELS CONSISTENT IN MOVING SURFACE COLD FRONT OFF THE COAST BY THE
EARLY EVENING. REGION MAY REMAIN RATHER CLOUDY DUE TO PERSISTENT
CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL
WINDS WILL SUPPORT A THREAT OF ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE DURING THE
AFTERNOON SHOULD POCKETS OF HEATING OCCUR.

..EVANS.. 08/20/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.