From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 1 07:03:33 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 01 Aug 2004 02:03:33 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200408010702.i7172mD08341@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 010700 SWODY2 SPC AC 010658 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0158 AM CDT SUN AUG 01 2004 VALID 021200Z - 031200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NNE ISN 25 WNW BIS 50 S JMS 20 ENE DLH 30 WSW CMX 70 E MQT 40 ENE PLN 45 SE OSC 25 NE TOL 20 NW HUF 30 WSW SPI 15 NW LWD 20 NE OLU 25 SE RAP 30 N 4BQ 70 NW MLS 70 NW GGW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W ERI 30 SE MFD 25 SW LUK 35 ESE OWB 30 WSW MDH 35 SW JEF 10 W FLV 25 SSW BIE 25 NE MCK 40 W IML 35 N LIC 10 SE RTN 60 W CVS 35 NE HOB 35 S BWD 55 ENE LFK 30 W LUL 40 SW SEM 15 WSW CSG 20 ESE ATL 40 W AVL 10 SE BLF 30 E HGR 25 SSW PSF 10 SSE PSM ...CONT... 60 N MOT 55 ESE MOT 50 WSW GFK 25 SSW TVF 45 WNW INL ...CONT... 65 SW TUS 40 SSW PRC 45 SSE LAS 50 ESE TPH 20 NE LOL 15 NE SVE 20 SW RBL 15 E ACV 40 SSE OTH 40 NW PDT 45 N 63S. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND WRN GREAT LAKES AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS LATE.... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL BE ANCHORED BY A MID LEVEL HIGH OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...TROUGHS ALONG THE ATLANTIC AND PACIFIC COASTS...AND THE MAIN BELT OF WLYS NEAR THE US/CANADIAN BORDER. WITHIN THE NRN STREAM...A SERIES OF EMBEDDED LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL TRANSLATE ESEWD INVOF THE BORDER...WITH WEAK WAVES ON A SURFACE FRONT AND THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS EXPECTED WITH EACH MID LEVEL TROUGH. FARTHER W...THE CLOSED LOW OVER NW CA IS FORECAST TO BECOME AN OPEN WAVE AND EJECT NEWD OVER THE NRN GREAT BASIN IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE ERN PAC. MODEST MID LEVEL FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE EJECTING TROUGH...WEAK INSTABILITY WITHIN A MID LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME...AND INVERTED-V PROFILES MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED STRONG GUSTS WITH THE STORMS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. A MORE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE STORM THREAT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND WRN GREAT LAKES. ...ERN SD TO LOWER MI AREA... COMPLICATED FORECAST SCENARIO FOR MONDAY WITH MULTIPLE SEVERE STORM EPISODES/CLUSTERS POSSIBLE. ONE POSSIBILITY IS FOR OVERNIGHT CONVECTION FROM DAY 1 TO PERSIST AS A FAST MOVING MCS ACROSS MN/WI TOWARD LOWER MI DURING THE DAY...WITH THE ATTENDANT THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS...AS SUGGESTED BY THE 00Z ETA/GFS. ANOTHER POSSIBILITY IS FOR SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT ACROSS NW WI/SRN MN/ERN SD. EITHER WAY...A RESERVOIR OF STRONG TO EXTREME INSTABILITY /MLCAPE VALUES OF 3000-5000 J/KG/ IS EXPECTED ACROSS SW WI/IA/MN/ERN SD/ERN NEB WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S COINCIDE WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 8 C/KM. THIS STRONG INSTABILITY WILL BE COMPLEMENTED BY 35-50 KT WNWLY MID LEVEL FLOW AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL VEERING WITH HEIGHT...WHICH WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AS WELL AS BOW ECHOES. THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS SHOULD BE VERY LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES WITH ANY SUPERCELLS...AND MORE CONCENTRATED DAMAGING WINDS WITH ANY MCS/S. SOME PORTION OF THE OUTLOOK AREA MAY REQUIRE AN UPGRADE TO MDT RISK IF A PARTICULAR SCENARIO/AREA BECOMES MORE APPARENT IN TIME. ...ERN MT/WRN ND LATE... IN THE WAKE OF LATE DAY 1 CONVECTION...THE WRN ND/ERN MT AREA WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY. DURING THE EVENING AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT...LOW-LEVEL SELY FLOW WILL INCREASE AND RESULT IN MOISTENING/DESTABILIZATION NWWD FROM SD. WAA AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL LATE IN THE PERIOD. ..THOMPSON.. 08/01/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 1 17:21:18 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 01 Aug 2004 12:21:18 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200408011720.i71HKeD20524@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 011718 SWODY2 SPC AC 011716 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1216 PM CDT SUN AUG 01 2004 VALID 021200Z - 031200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW SPI LWD 20 NNE OLU 45 NW VTN 40 S REJ 65 NNW REJ 20 NNW DIK 45 ESE P24 35 NNE FAR 55 NW IWD 25 N IMT 30 SSE HTL 25 SW FNT 25 ENE FWA 25 NNE IND 20 SSE CMI 30 WSW SPI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SW TUS 50 WSW PRC 60 NNE DRA 10 E LOL SVE RBL 55 ESE EKA 20 NNE ACV 50 NNE 4BK 45 N RDM 25 ESE EPH 45 N 63S ...CONT... 60 N OLF 15 W MOT 25 E DVL 20 E TVF 20 NNE ELO ...CONT... 40 W ERI 15 E MFD 40 NE SDF 25 ENE OWB 20 W MDH 40 NE MHK 10 NNE IML 10 N AKO 30 ESE DEN 20 S RTN 40 W CVS 30 ENE HOB 45 ENE SJT 30 NW LFK 40 E LUL 10 S AUO 20 SE ATL 35 W AVL BLF 20 WSW CXY 20 NNE BOS. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES... ...NRN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES... STRONG NWLY FLOW TO THE NORTH OF AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS...WILL INTENSIFY AS A MID-LEVEL JET DROPS SEWD OUT OF SRN CANADA ON DAY 2. THIS WILL CREATE A STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE CONVECTION MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE REGION. THE AIRMASS SOUTH OF A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL BECOME VERY TO EXTREMELY UNSTABLE BY AFTERNOON DUE TO HIGH SFC DEWPOINTS AND STRONG SFC HEATING. MODEL FORECASTS SUGGEST MLCAPE VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 4000 TO 5000 J/KG WHICH WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS CONSIDERING 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES SHOULD RANGE FROM 40 TO 50 KT ACROSS MOST OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. A CAPPING INVERSION WILL LIKELY INHIBIT CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE FRONT WHICH SHOULD BE LOCATED ACROSS NRN NEB AND NRN IA. HOWEVER...SUPERCELLS SHOULD DEVELOP WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD INITIATION LIKELY BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS SD DURING THE AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT AND LARGE HAIL THREAT MAY ALSO OCCUR WITH SUPERCELLS NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE SFC LOW ACROSS ERN ND AND SW MN. OTHER STRONG STORMS WILL BE LIKELY NORTH OF THE FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS ERN MT...SRN ND AND MN. THE MOST FAVORABLE AREA FOR MCS DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE IN THE STRONGER SHEAR...NORTH OF THE INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS SRN MN AND NRN IA AS STORMS CONGEAL DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THE SEVERE STORMS MAY BECOME LINEAR IN ORIENTATION WITH A COLD POOL TRACKING SEWD ACROSS SE MN AND NE IA INTO WI AND NR IL OVERNIGHT. DUE TO THE HIGH SFC DEWPOINTS AND EXTREME INSTABILITY...WIND DAMAGE WILL BE LIKELY ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MCS WITH WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...LARGE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. ...NRN ROCKIES... A CLOSED-OFF UPPER LOW WILL OPEN AND PROGRESS EWD TONIGHT REACHING THE PACIFIC NW DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. THIS WILL SPREAD STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION BY AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR 21Z MONDAY ACROSS THE REGION SHOW MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY FOR SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER...VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND COOLER TEMPS ALOFT (500 MB TEMPS OF -12 TO -14C) MAY BE ENOUGH FOR HAIL NEAR PEAK HEATING WITH THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS. THE MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY IN THE EVENING AS INSTABILITY DECREASES ACROSS THE REGION. ..BROYLES.. 08/01/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 2 07:36:23 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 02 Aug 2004 02:36:23 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200408020735.i727ZXD03135@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 020733 SWODY2 SPC AC 020732 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0232 AM CDT MON AUG 02 2004 VALID 031200Z - 041200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 N OLF 10 WSW DIK 45 N 9V9 35 SE FSD 40 NE MLI 30 SE SBN 20 NW CMH 30 WNW HTS 55 SSW LEX CGI HUT 50 S HLC 20 NE SNY 40 NE SHR 30 ENE GTF 30 NNE CTB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 N MOT 15 ENE JMS 10 S AXN 20 ESE EAU 20 SSW MBL 70 SE OSC ...CONT... 65 WSW COT 40 S CLL 35 ESE POE 40 SW LUL 10 WNW TOI 45 ESE MCN CAE 40 NE CLT 35 NE HKY 20 W HSS 25 W CSV 30 ENE JBR 15 NW FYV 25 WSW END 40 NNE AMA 20 ENE CVS 10 SW ROW 50 SSE ELP ...CONT... 30 SW FHU 80 NW GUP 25 W PUC 55 NE MLD 25 SE 27U 30 E BKE 25 WSW BNO 30 WSW 4LW 25 NNE MHS 25 NW MFR 15 SSE PDX 20 NE BLI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE OH VALLEY.... ...SYNOPSIS... SUBTLE CHANGES WILL BEGIN TO OCCUR WITHIN THE LARGE SCALE REGIME AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO DEEPEN INVOF SE HUDSON BAY...WHILE UPSTREAM HEIGHTS RISE OVER THE NRN ROCKIES AND THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES TO THE E OF AN ERN PAC TROUGH. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO ROTATE EWD OVER NRN NEW ENGLAND. THIS BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE NE STATES...THOUGH THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS RATHER MARGINAL. FARTHER W...THE ERN PAC TROUGH WILL HELP EJECT THE MID LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER NW CA...WITH THE REMNANTS OF THIS SYSTEM LIKELY TO CREST THE RIDGE OVER THE NRN ROCKIES AND EMERGE OVER THE PLAINS BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER A SLOW-MOVING WNW-ESE ORIENTED BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS TO THE MID MS VALLEY...ALONG WHICH ONE OR MORE MCS/S APPEAR LIKELY DURING THE PERIOD. ...PLAINS TO MID MS VALLEY... FORECAST SCENARIO REMAINS COMPLEX WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF MULTIPLE MCS/S FROM NOW THROUGH TUESDAY...WHICH WILL UNDOUBTEDLY IMPACT THE SEVERE STORM THREAT TUESDAY ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. AT THIS TIME...THE MOST PROBABLE EVOLUTION IS FOR SEVERE STORMS TO FORM DURING THE AFTERNOON INVOF SW SD/WRN NEB AND SPREAD ESEWD THROUGH THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS IN ADVANCE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CRESTING THE RIDGE. STRONG INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED AGAIN IN THE CORRIDOR ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY N OF THE SURFACE FRONT...AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THIS SAME CORRIDOR. LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SUPERCELLS RELATIVELY EARLY IN THE EPISODE...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BECOMING DAMAGING WINDS OVERNIGHT. OTHER CONVECTION FROM THE DAY 1 PERIOD MAY PERSIST AND/OR INTENSIFY DURING THE DAY WHILE MOVING SE ACROSS THE IA/IL/INDIANA AREA. DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT THIS AREA. ...ERN MT AREA... LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE BY TUESDAY ACROSS ERN MT...RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS. DESPITE THE TENDENCY FOR MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES OVER THIS AREA...THE STATIONARY NW-SE FRONT AND STRONG SURFACE HEATING ACROSS CENTRAL MT SHOULD ALLOW A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. STRONG DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR AND MODERATE INSTABILITY COULD RESULT IN SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ..THOMPSON.. 08/02/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 2 17:35:05 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 02 Aug 2004 12:35:05 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200408021734.i72HYC910062@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 021731 SWODY2 SPC AC 021727 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1227 PM CDT MON AUG 02 2004 VALID 031200Z - 041200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NNE ISN 35 W BIS FSD 20 N DBQ AZO 15 NNW PIT 20 SE CRW 5I3 BWG 20 SW MDH 25 S SLN 45 ENE GLD BFF BIL HLN 20 N CTB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW FHU 4BL RKS PIH 40 N SUN 45 SE BKE BNO 35 ESE MHS 45 W MHS 35 NW MFR PDX 15 NE BLI ...CONT... 60 NNE MOT 15 ENE JMS AXN CWA 20 NNE MTW 35 NNE MBS ...CONT... 10 NW LRD 25 SSE CLL 15 SSE POE MCB MGM LGC 25 WNW AHN 50 SSE TYS BNA POF JLN P28 35 N GAG AMA 65 SE ELP. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN ROCKIES SEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THEN EWD ACROSS THE MID MS/OH VALLEYS... ...SYNOPSIS... ACTIVE...BUT COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN IS FORECAST FOR TUESDAY. MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN FROM HUDSON BAY SWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES/NEW ENGLAND...WHILE UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE NRN ROCKIES NWD INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING TROUGH...WITH THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEW ENGLAND SWWD ACROSS THE NRN OHIO VALLEY/CENTRAL PLAINS AND THEN NWWD INTO MT BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FARTHER W ...AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NRN CA...IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN...BUT BE EJECTED NEWD INTO THE NRN ROCKIES TUESDAY NIGHT. ...CENTRAL PLAINS EWD INTO MID MS VALLEY/OH VALLEYS... MODELS SUGGEST POSSIBILITY OF MULTIPLE MCS/S ON TUESDAY..THOUGH LOCATION/TIMING/SPEED ARE OFTEN NOT HANDLED WELL BY THE MODELS. PAST COUPLE OF ETA/GFS RUNS...INCLUDING GFS NRN BIAS...HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN FORECASTING CENTRAL PLAINS CONVECTION TONIGHT BEING LOCATED IN IA/IL AT THE START OF PERIOD. THESE STORMS MIGHT BE MARGINALLY SEVERE IN THE MORNING...BUT WITH HEATING... MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY AND 30-40 KT MID/HIGH LEVEL WINDS...A BOW ECHO IS POSSIBLE AS THE STORMS MOVE EWD INTO THE OH VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER CLUSTER IS ALSO FORECAST TO DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AS BOUNDARY LAYER UPSLOPE FLOW AIDS IN INITIATION NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT. WEAK FORCING AND CAPPING INVERSION WILL LIMIT CONVECTION SOUTH OF FRONT. STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND MUCAPES FROM 2000-3000 J/KG WOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND SOME WIND DAMAGE. LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO VEER FROM NEB INTO SRN IA/NRN MO AND SHOULD FAVOR STORMS EVOLVING INTO A SLIGHT ELEVATED BOW ECHO WITH MAINLY A WIND THREAT SPREADING ESEWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY OVERNIGHT. ...MT AREA... ELY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL MOISTEN SURFACE DEWPOINTS INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S ON TUESDAY ACROSS ERN MT...RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS. DESPITE HEIGHT RISES...STATIONARY NW-SE FRONT...STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MODERATE INSTABILITY FAVOR SUPERCELLS...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. OTHER STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN WRN MT TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH DRY BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGESTING ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS. ...NEW ENGLAND... APPROACHING FRONT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. DEEP WSWLY FLOW MAY BE FAVORABLE TO ORGANIZE STORMS INTO LINES/BANDS WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS. ALTHOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE 1000-2000 J/KG OF MLCAPES...NCEP ENSEMBLE SUGGESTS INSTABILITY WILL BE MOSTLY AOB 1000 J/KG...SO ONLY LOW PROBABILITIES OF WIND DAMAGE ATTM. ..IMY.. 08/02/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 3 07:31:42 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 03 Aug 2004 02:31:42 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200408030730.i737Uq923923@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 030728 SWODY2 SPC AC 030727 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0227 AM CDT TUE AUG 03 2004 VALID 041200Z - 051200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW JHW 25 SSW DUJ 50 ENE CRW 15 NW 5I3 40 E BWG 15 E CGI 40 WNW TBN 25 N SZL 30 E LWD 30 SE DBQ DTW. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NNW GGW 60 NE 4BQ 30 SE MHN MCK 50 WNW GLD 20 WNW CYS 15 SE SHR 45 NW 3HT 60 NW CTB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW LRD 40 SSE CLL 35 SE ESF 65 SW SEM 40 WSW MCN 30 E FAY 15 NNE HSE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SW TUS 35 SE PHX 25 SSW PRC 45 NNE IGM 35 SW MLF 20 ENE DPG 25 NW MLD 55 WSW SUN 30 ESE BNO 45 NE LMT 25 W MHS 15 ENE 4BK 25 WNW PDX 25 NNE BLI ...CONT... 60 NNW ISN 45 E Y22 9V9 35 ENE BUB 35 NNE RSL 10 E MHK 35 NE FNB 30 E MCW 15 NE GRB 20 SE APN ...CONT... 35 WNW SYR 10 WSW BGM CXY 45 S MRB 15 S PSK 40 ENE CHA 20 ENE GWO 30 SSW TXK 35 N BWD 30 WSW MAF 60 SSW MRF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID MS VALLEY TO THE OH VALLEY.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NRN HIGH PLAINS.... ...SYNOPSIS... 00Z MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN EVOLUTION TO A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PAC NW...A RIDGE OVER THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES...AND A DEEPENING DOWNSTREAM TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. WITHIN THE BELT OF FLOW FROM THE NRN ROCKIES TO THE OH VALLEY...A SMALLER SCALE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP EWD FROM ROUGHLY ERN IA EARLY TO WRN PA/NY LATE IN THE PERIOD. SOME AMPLIFICATION OF THIS MID LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM HEIGHT RISES...BUT THE MAGNITUDE OF THE AMPLIFICATION SUGGESTS A CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK IN BOTH THE 00Z ETA AND GFS FORECASTS. ...MID MS TO OH VALLEY AREA... TAKEN LITERALLY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE ETA/GFS SHOW EXTREMELY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR IN A CORRIDOR IMMEDIATELY E OF THE SURFACE LOW FROM NRN IL AROUND MIDDAY TO WRN PA TOMORROW NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S AND THE INTENSE VERTICAL SHEAR WOULD APPEAR TO FAVOR A SIGNIFICANT TORNADO THREAT E OF THE SURFACE LOW...THOUGH THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THIS SCENARIO GIVEN THE NECESSARY EVOLUTION OF THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS ORIGINATING DURING THE DAY 1 PERIOD. DESPITE THE QUESTIONS REGARDING THE INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM AND ANY ASSOCIATED TORNADO THREAT...THE GENERAL PATTERN EVOLUTION FAVORS A SEVERE WIND/HAIL THREAT WITH ONE OR MORE STORM CLUSTERS FROM THE MID MS VALLEY EARLY IN THE PERIOD TO THE OH VALLEY LATER DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. ...NRN HIGH PLAINS... A LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AS A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS SWD ACROSS THE LOWER PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY IN THE WAKE OF THE AMPLIFYING GREAT LAKES MID LEVEL TROUGH. THIS FLOW REGIME WILL TEND TO CONFINE THE RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TO A NARROW CORRIDOR IMMEDIATELY E OF THE ROCKIES FROM CENTRAL MT TO ERN WY/WRN NEB/NE CO. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS...GIVEN 30-40 KT WLY TO NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW AND POTENTIALLY MODERATE INSTABILITY. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF A MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THIS AREA...UPSLOPE FLOW AND TERRAIN INFLUENCES SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ..THOMPSON.. 08/03/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 3 17:36:22 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 03 Aug 2004 12:36:22 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200408031735.i73HZS930667@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 031733 SWODY2 SPC AC 031731 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1231 PM CDT TUE AUG 03 2004 VALID 041200Z - 051200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NNW GGW 60 NE 4BQ 30 SE MHN MCK 50 WNW GLD 20 WNW CYS 15 SE SHR 45 NW 3HT 60 NW CTB. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW JHW 25 SSW DUJ 50 ENE CRW 15 NW 5I3 40 E BWG 15 E CGI 40 WNW TBN 25 N SZL 30 E LWD 30 SE DBQ 20 S MTC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW LRD 40 SSE CLL 35 SE ESF 65 SW SEM 40 WSW MCN 30 E FAY 15 NNE HSE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW SYR 10 WSW BGM CXY 45 S MRB 15 S PSK 40 ENE CHA 20 ENE GWO 30 SSW TXK 35 N BWD 30 WSW MAF 60 SSW MRF ...CONT... 60 SW TUS 40 SE PHX 25 SSW PRC 45 NNE IGM 35 SW MLF 20 ENE DPG 25 NW MLD 55 WSW SUN 30 ESE BNO 45 NE LMT 25 W MHS 15 ENE 4BK 25 ESE AST 20 NW BLI ...CONT... 60 NNW ISN 45 E Y22 9V9 35 ENE BUB 35 NNE RSL 10 E MHK 35 NE FNB 30 E MCW 15 NE GRB 20 SE APN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE MID MS VLY ACROSS THE MIDWEST TO THE UPPER OH VLY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER FLOW PATTERN CHANGE WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY FEATURING A TROUGH OVER THE PAC NW...A ROCKIES RIDGE AND A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WITHIN THIS FLOW REGIME...A PIECE OF THE MIDLEVEL IMPULSE NOW CROSSING THE NRN ROCKIES WILL TOP THE RIDGE AND DIG SEWD INTO THE CORN BELT TONIGHT AND THE UPPER OH VLY BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...A LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE IMPULSE WILL MOVE FROM IA EARLY WEDNESDAY EWD TO WRN PA BY EARLY THURSDAY. IN WAKE OF THE LOW...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SWD ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE LOW AND FRONT WILL BE THE IMPETUS FOR ORGANIZED TSTMS. ...MID MS VLY ACROSS THE MIDWEST TO THE UPPER OH VLY... 12Z ETA/GFS STILL APPEAR TO BE OVER-AMPLIFYING FEATURES SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS RUNS OWING TO CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK PROBLEMS. SEE HPC MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR FURTHER DETAILS. FORECAST DETAILS WILL RELY HEAVILY ON CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION TODAY/TONIGHT AND ALSO ON THE MAGNITUDE OF AMPLIFICATION THAT INDEED OCCURS. A MCS SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF THE CORN BELT AND UPPER MS VLY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. TSTMS SHOULD INTENSIFY ALONG SRN EDGE OF THIS MCS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS/HODOGRAPHS VCNTY LOW AND E-W BOUNDARY THROUGH NRN IND AND NRN OH WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF TORNADOES GIVEN VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR. AGAIN MODELS MAY BE OVER-AMPLIFYING FEATURES. IF MODEL GUIDANCE IS CORRECT...SUPERCELL TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL BE HIGH OVER PARTS OF THE AREA ESPECIALLY WITH INITIAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT. MORE LIKELY SCENARIO WILL BE FOR A BOW ECHO OR TWO TO TRACK FROM THE MID/UPPER MS VLY ESEWD ACROSS THE MIDWEST TO THE OH VLY. BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN VERY MOIST /70S/ AND MODEST UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW WILL EXIST ABOVE H85. THUS...KINEMATIC/ THERMODYNAMIC SET-UPS WILL BE HIGHLY FAVORABLE FOR BOW ECHOES WITH DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL AND FUTURE OUTLOOKS MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED. ...NRN HIGH PLAINS... OUTFLOW FROM SURFACE HIGH MOVING SWD THROUGH THE PLAINS WILL MAINTAIN A MOIST LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. NWLY FLOW OF 40-45 KTS ATOP THE ESELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL PRODUCE FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. TIMING OF SIGNIFICANT MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TOPPING THE RIDGE WILL BE DIFFICULT. IT IS LIKELY...HOWEVER...THAT ANY ORGANIZED TSTMS WILL BE TIED TO THE DIURNAL CYCLE AND WITHIN A NARROW CORRIDOR FROM CNTRL MT TO ERN WY/WRN NEB/NERN CO. ...INTERIOR PAC NW... LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT MARINE PUSH MAY BEGIN ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS UPSTREAM TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE COAST. INCREASING UPPER DIVERGENCE/DIFFLUENCE WILL TEND TO SUPPORT STRONGER TSTMS OVER THE CASCADES THAT MAY MOVE INTO INTERIOR PARTS OF WA/ORE DURING THE EVENING. THOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE SOMEWHAT WEAK...ONE OR TWO TSTMS MAY ROTATE AND PRODUCE LARGE HAIL OR HIGH WINDS. ..RACY.. 08/03/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 4 17:17:20 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 04 Aug 2004 12:17:20 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200408041716.i74HGQ912227@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 041714 SWODY2 SPC AC 041712 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1212 PM CDT WED AUG 04 2004 VALID 051200Z - 061200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NNE OLF 40 N REJ 40 ENE CDR 30 ESE AIA 15 SE SNY 40 ESE CYS 30 NW CYS 60 SW GCC 40 SSW BIL 15 N BZN 30 SW 3DU 25 WSW S06 60 ENE 63S. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E CRE 20 NE FLO 40 WNW SOP 20 NNE GSO 20 SSE LYH 35 NNW RIC 30 SSE DOV. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW YUM 25 S P38 15 N OGD 10 NNE PIH 55 SSW 27U 35 ESE BKE 50 WSW BNO 65 SSW RDM 50 E EUG 50 ESE OLM 55 ENE BLI ...CONT... 70 NE MOT 15 ENE MHE 20 NNE CNK 25 WSW P28 10 N LBB 35 WSW ABI 20 SE GGG 10 ESE PBF 35 N TUP 35 WSW TYS 45 W MRB 20 NE ABE 10 S HYA. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER ERN PARTS OF VA/NC... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS AND NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST... ...MID-ATLANTIC INTO ERN PORTIONS OF VA/NC... UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN OVER THE ERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY ON THURSDAY. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD FROM THE UPPER OH VLY TONIGHT AND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC/SERN STATES THURSDAY AFTERNOON. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE SURFACE LOW AND FRONT SHOULD BE FARTHER SEWD THAN PREVIOUS SOLUTION...WITH EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON POSITION FROM ERN LONG ISLAND SWWD INTO DE...SRN VA AND CNTRL NC. AS A RESULT...THE SLGT RISK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SWD OUT OF SRN NEW ENGLAND/NYC/PHL/DCA AREAS. WARM SECTOR AIR MASS ALONG/SOUTH OF THE FRONT WILL REMAIN MOIST/UNSTABLE. SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE 70S AND ANTICIPATED INSOLATION SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES AOA 1000 J/KG. STRONGEST INSTABILITY WILL EXIST ACROSS ERN NC. LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND FORCING ALONG THE FRONT WILL AID IN STRENGTHENING TSTMS DURING PEAK HEATING FROM SERN VA INTO CNTRL NC. OTHER STORMS ARE APT TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SEABREEZE. MODEST INSTABILITY...INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD SUPPORT A FEW ORGANIZED TSTMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. FARTHER SW...ISOLD TSTMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THE LENGTH OF THE FRONT INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. BUT...WEAKER SHEAR AND FORCING SHOULD PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER. ...NRN HIGH PLAINS AND NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST... THERE WILL LIKELY BE TWO PRIMARY AREAS OF SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT ON THURSDAY. WEAK UPPER JETLET EJECTING FROM BASE OF AN UPSTREAM PAC NW TROUGH WILL MIGRATE NEWD THROUGH WA/ORE TODAY AND THEN ACROSS NRN ID AND NWRN MT ON THURSDAY. TAIL END OF THIS TROUGH WILL LIKELY ENHANCE DIURNALLY BASED TSTMS ACROSS MAINLY NWRN MT DURING PEAK HEATING. THESE TSTMS MAY DEVELOP SEWD ALONG THE SWRN MT HIGHER TERRAIN LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN MIGRATE NEWD INTO CNTRL MT BY THURSDAY NIGHT. VERTICAL SHEAR OF 40 KTS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AT NIGHT OVER NCNTRL OR NERN MT AS MAIN HEIGHT FALLS SPREAD INTO ALTA. OTHER TSTMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE HIGHER WY/CO TERRAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL REMAIN ESELY MAINTAINING 50S/60S DEW POINTS CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. GIVEN FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR...A FEW TSTMS WILL PRODUCE LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. WEAK MIDLEVEL IMPULSE ROTATING NEWD FROM NWRN CO MAY MAINTAIN A SMALL MCS THAT COULD MOVE INTO ADJACENT WRN NEB PNHDL AND SWRN SD THURSDAY EVENING...BUT THE SEVERE THREATS SHOULD DIMINISH WITH TIME. ..RACY.. 08/04/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 5 07:37:28 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 05 Aug 2004 02:37:28 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200408050736.i757aY902269@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 050733 SWODY2 SPC AC 050732 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0232 AM CDT THU AUG 05 2004 VALID 061200Z - 071200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S CEW 15 ENE SSI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S YUM 15 NNE P38 50 N EVW WEY 25 WSW LWS 30 E SEA 20 NNE BLI ...CONT... INL 40 W DLH 25 ESE STC 30 NNW FOD 15 SE OMA 30 NNW CNK 25 WSW P28 15 SW LTS ABI 45 SSW BWD 40 SW GLS. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE SCALE PATTERN OVER THE CONUS WILL REACH PEAK AMPLITUDE BY EARLY TOMORROW...WITH A DEEP TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND...A RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS...AND ANOTHER TROUGH OVER THE PAC NW. THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT ACROSS THE ERN CONUS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE FL PENINSULA ALONG AND S OF THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEW ENGLAND TROUGH. FARTHER W...A WEAK LEE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAKENING/EJECTING MID LEVEL TROUGH...WHILE A STRONGER UPSTREAM MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE NRN ROCKIES. THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS FROM THE CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS TO THE NRN PLAINS INVOF THE LEE TROUGH...AND SOME PORTION OF EITHER AREA MAY NEED AN UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK IN LATER OUTLOOK UPDATES. ...NRN PLAINS AREA... THE REMNANTS OF A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE PAC NW WILL EJECT EWD AND LOSE AMPLITUDE OVER THE NRN PLAINS WHILE MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN RIDGE POSITION. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE DAKOTAS AND E OF THE MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AXES RELATIVELY EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WHICH MAY TEND TO LIMIT THE SEVERE STORM THREAT. ADDITIONALLY...VEERED FLOW AND LOW-LEVEL DRYING IN THE WAKE OF THIS LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ALSO TEND TO LIMIT INSTABILITY ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN MT IN ADVANCE OF THE STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS DURING THE DAY ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WITH THE LEAD TROUGH GIVEN MODERATE INSTABILITY AND MARGINALLY FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR...BUT ONLY LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES WILL BE INCLUDED IN THIS OUTLOOK. ...CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS... AN UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME WITH PERSISTENT CONVERGENCE/ASCENT ALONG A WEAK LEE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. MID TO HIGH LEVEL FLOW WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG OVER THIS AREA...BUT DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR MAY BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS GIVEN SELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BENEATH WEAK TO MODERATE NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW. BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW-MID 60S AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY IN A NARROW CORRIDOR E OF THE LEE TROUGH...WHERE ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ..THOMPSON.. 08/05/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 5 17:39:13 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 05 Aug 2004 12:39:13 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200408051738.i75HcJ901134@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 051735 SWODY2 SPC AC 051734 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1234 PM CDT THU AUG 05 2004 VALID 061200Z - 071200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S CEW 15 ENE SSI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM INL 40 W DLH 25 ESE STC 30 NNW FOD 15 SE OMA 30 NNW CNK 25 WSW P28 15 SW LTS ABI 45 SSW BWD 40 SW GLS ...CONT... 15 S YUM 15 NNE P38 50 N EVW WEY 30 NE ALW 25 WSW DLS 40 N ONP. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... NO LARGE SCALE CHANGES EXPECTED TO THE OVERALL UPPER FLOW REGIME ON FRIDAY. DEEP COLD TROUGH ACROSS THE ERN SEABOARD WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SETTLING UNUSUALLY FAR SOUTH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...INTO NRN FL AND THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO. MEANWHILE...UPSTREAM RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES...WITH ANOTHER PROGRESSIVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE PAC NW INTO THE NRN ROCKIES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. ...NRN PLAINS... A PIECE OF THE MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES TODAY WILL TOP THE UPPER RIDGE AND INTO THE DAKS LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. A TSTM CLUSTER OR TWO MAY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD OVER THE DAKS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AND ALONG NOSE OF 35-40 KT SLY LLJ AXIS. THESE TSTMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE EWD INTO PARTS OF THE RED RIVER VLY/WRN MN BY EVENING. IN WAKE OF THE IMPULSE/TSTMS...LARGE SCALE RIDGING/WARMING ALOFT MAY TEND TO KEEP RISKS FOR SEVERE TSTMS LIMITED ACROSS THE DAKS DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. AIR MASS DOES RECOVER IN WAKE OF THESE TSTMS AND THERE WILL BE A LOW PROBABILISTIC THREAT FOR SURFACE BASED STORMS TO DEVELOP VCNTY THE LEE TROUGH CNTRL SD/ND. GIVEN A TSTM...VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE TSTMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. MOST LIKELY SCENARIO... HOWEVER...IS FOR LARGE SCALE RIDGING AND CAP TO KEEP TSTMS FROM DEVELOPING. ...NRN HIGH PLAINS/ROCKIES... HEIGHT FALLS WILL BEGIN SPREADING EWD IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING PAC NW TROUGH VERY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS WRN/CNTRL MT. LOW LEVEL AIR MASS WILL LIKELY BE DRIER THAN RECENT DAYS OVER MT OWING TO TONIGHT/S MIDLEVEL IMPULSE MOVING EAST OF THE REGION. BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS...HOWEVER...ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER IN THE 50S WITH STRONGEST INSTABILITY AXIS EXTENDING FROM CNTRL-ERN MT. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ON THE MOUNTAINS OF SWRN/WRN MT AND MIGRATE EWD TOWARD THIS INSTABILITY AXIS DURING THE EVENING. IF TSTMS CAN SURVIVE...THEY MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR LARGE HAIL...BUT UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON HOW WIDESPREAD THE THREATS MAY BE. AS SUCH...WILL NOT UPGRADE TO A SLGT RISK...BUT WILL MAINTAIN LOW PROBABILISTIC SEVERE THREATS. ...SRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS... MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE SRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS ON FRIDAY. TSTMS ARE APT TO DEVELOP ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALONG LEE-TROUGH/BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. VEERING OF THE WIND THROUGH THE TROPOSPHERE MAY AUGMENT TSTMS AND ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS. ...WRN WA... STRONG UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND PAC NW DURING THE AFTERNOON. THOUGH INSTABILITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG /MUCAPES 300-500 J/KG/ OWING TO LIMITED INSOLATION...KINEMATIC PROFILES WILL BE MODEST WITH VERTICAL SHEAR OF 30-35 KTS. SELY FLOW BENEATH STRONGER MIDLEVEL FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO 0-1KM SRH OF 150 M2/S2 AS WELL. THOUGH THREAT DOES NOT WARRANT A LOW PROBABILITY ATTM...IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT GIVEN STRONGER INSOLATION/INSTABILITY THAT A STRONGER STORM MAY PRODUCE WIND DAMAGE/HAIL OR A VERY BRIEF TORNADO. ..RACY.. 08/05/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 6 06:59:43 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 06 Aug 2004 01:59:43 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200408060658.i766wn932037@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 060656 SWODY2 SPC AC 060655 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0155 AM CDT FRI AUG 06 2004 VALID 071200Z - 081200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W RRT 55 W AXN 15 NNE YKN 30 WNW OFK 30 NW EAR 35 NNW IML 10 SW AIA 40 N CDR 25 ESE REJ 40 SSW DIK 70 NNE OLF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW CTY 50 SE JAX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW IWD 30 S LSE 15 ESE OTM 10 NE FLV 40 SSW ICT 40 SW END 45 SSE CDS 35 WNW ABI DRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 S GBN 40 NW PHX 25 SSE GCN 50 ESE PGA 15 NW CEZ 25 SE MTJ 40 SSW 4FC 15 N FCL 55 N CYS 55 S 81V 35 SSW MLS 80 NW GGW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE ACY 35 WSW ABE 40 NE ROC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW BML PSM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS NORTHERN PLAINS... A RATHER VIGOROUS MID-SUMMER TROUGH TOPS THE WRN RIDGE ON SATURDAY AS A COLD UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY EWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. A COLD FRONT PRECEED BY A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS NRN HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH ALONG CANADIAN BORDER. SLY FLOW OF MDTLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR AHEAD OF SURFACE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN FAVORABLE CONDITIONS TO SUPPORT ACTIVE CONVECTION BY AFTERNOON. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND THE COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH SUGGESTS THAT LARGE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY IN THE MOST VIGOROUS STORMS. STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS SURFACE TROUGH DURING THE EVENING WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER SYSTEM. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF AN MCS ACROSS ND/NRN SD SATURDAY NIGHT. ASSOCIATED WITH MCS FORMATION WOULD BE POTENTIAL FOR INCREASE IN WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL SATURDAY EVENING. ..HALES.. 08/06/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 6 17:27:07 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 06 Aug 2004 12:27:07 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200408061726.i76HQD911405@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 061723 SWODY2 SPC AC 061722 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1222 PM CDT FRI AUG 06 2004 VALID 071200Z - 081200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W RRT 55 W AXN 15 NNE YKN 30 WNW OFK 30 NW EAR 35 NNW IML 10 SW AIA 40 N CDR 25 ESE REJ 40 SSW DIK 70 NNE OLF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 S GBN 40 NW PHX 25 SSE GCN 50 ESE PGA 15 NW CEZ 25 SE MTJ 40 SSW 4FC 15 N FCL 55 N CYS 55 S 81V 35 SSW MLS 80 NW GGW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW IWD 30 S LSE 15 ESE OTM 10 NE FLV 40 SSW ICT 40 SW END 45 SSE CDS 35 WNW ABI DRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW CTY 50 SE JAX. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS STATES... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE ON SATURDAY. COLD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST IS EXPECTED TO EJECT NEWD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND WHILE THE UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE NWRN STATES DEAMPLIFIES AND MOVES TO THE NRN PLAINS BY SATURDAY NIGHT. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE ERN TROUGH WILL REMAIN UNUSUALLY FAR SOUTH FOR AUGUST...SITUATED FROM CNTRL FL INTO THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO. LEE-TROUGH WILL REDEVELOP EWD INTO THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS SATURDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING PAC NW TROUGH AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE TSTMS. ...NRN/CNTRL PLAINS... AS UPSTREAM MIDLEVEL IMPULSE TRANSLATES INTO ERN MT SATURDAY AFTERNOON...LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL SPREAD ONTO THE NRN PLAINS. COMBINATION OF WEAK CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE DAKOTAS AND STRENGTHENING LEE-TROUGH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN TSTM INITIATION FROM WRN ND INTO CNTRL SD SATURDAY AFTERNOON. DEW POINTS AOA 60F BENEATH STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES SPREADING EWD FROM THE CNTRL ROCKIES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AFTERNOON MLCAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG. GIVEN APPROACH OF 45-55 KT H5 JET ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH...VERTICAL SHEAR WILL INCREASE TO 30-35 KTS. STRONG INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH THESE SHEAR VALUES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL...ESPECIALLY WITH THE INITIAL DEVELOPMENT. LATER IN THE EVENING...ACTIVITY SHOULD CONGEAL INTO ONE OR MORE MCS/S AND TRACK ESEWD TOWARD ERN SD/ND...WRN MN AND PERHAPS NERN NEB. PROBABILITIES FOR DAMAGING WINDS WILL INCREASE IN THE EVENING. FARTHER S...ISOLD TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THE LENGTH OF THE LEE- TROUGH SWD INTO CNTRL NEB...WRN KS AND THE OK/TX PNHDLS. SLY FLOW OF 10-15 KTS BENEATH INCREASING NNWLY MIDLEVEL FLOW WILL AUGMENT VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES SUCH THAT GIVEN A TSTM...SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...SINCE STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS MOVE THROUGH THE NRN HIGH PLAINS...LARGE SCALE SUPPORT WILL BE MUCH WEAKER OVER THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS. AS A RESULT... ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE ISOLD. LATER OUTLOOKS MAY NEED TO EXTEND THE SLGT RISK FARTHER S IF SEVERE THREAT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE GREATER. ..RACY.. 08/06/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 7 06:58:25 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 07 Aug 2004 01:58:25 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200408070657.i776vX923145@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 070655 SWODY2 SPC AC 070654 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0154 AM CDT SAT AUG 07 2004 VALID 081200Z - 091200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 E MQT 25 SSE OSH 35 WNW PIA 40 S IRK 10 W CNU 35 ENE GAG 35 SSW EHA 30 W HLC 30 WSW SPW 30 SW BRD INL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSW TUS 50 N TUS 50 SW SOW 45 SW GUP 15 SW GUP 50 NE DRO 35 ENE ASE 20 SW FCL 45 WNW AKO 45 SE AIA 30 NE VTN 35 SW ABR 30 SSE JMS 35 NW JMS 55 WNW MOT 80 NE ISN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW APN 10 SW GRR 30 NW SLO 30 SSE VIH 25 NNE FYV 40 ESE OKC 45 S LTS 30 N ABI 35 S SEP 35 ESE ACT 30 NW LFT 50 NW GPT 25 W DHN 30 E SSI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E BOS 15 NW EFK. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL PLAINS NEWD INTO UPPER MS VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... RIDGING OVER THE WRN U.S. ALLOWS TROUGH TO DIG SEWD FROM NRN PLAINS INTO UPPER MS VALLEY AND WRN GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. INCREASING NWLY FLOW WILL SPREAD EWD ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. PRIMARY SURFACE LOW MOVES EWD UNDER UPPER TROUGH ALONG MN/CANADIAN BORDER WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRAILING SWWD TO CENTRAL ROCKIES. A SECONDARY LEE LOW WRN KS AHEAD OF TROUGH WILL BE SUPPRESSED SWD DURING THE PERIOD AS COLD FRONT MOVES SWD THRU HIGH PLAINS. STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SPREAD EWD AHEAD OF COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS AND TO A LESSER EXTENT UPPER MS VALLEY. THIS WILL ENHANCE THE INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT WILL BE IN PLACE FROM SRN HIGH PLAINS NEWD ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS INTO UPPER MS VALLEY. ... UPPER MS VALLEY/WRN GREAT LAKES... MDTLY UNSTABLE AIR WILL BE AVAILABLE TO SUPPORT ACTIVE CONVECTION ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH THIS AREA. LIMITING FACTOR FOR SEVERE WILL BE MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR AS LOWER LEVEL WINDS WILL BE RATHER WEAK WITH SFC-6KM SHEAR GENERALLY LESS THAN 30KT. MLCAPES TO 1500 J/KG COUPLED WITH THE 7-8C/KM LAPSE RATES SUFFICIENT FOR A LARGE HAIL THREAT ALONG WITH LESSER DAMAGING WIND CONCERN. ...CENTRAL PLAINS... MORE ACTIVE SEVERE THREAT IS POSSIBLE THIS AREA WHERE LAPSE RATES WILL BE 8C/KM OR GREATER AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR MORE PRONOUNCED UNDER INCREASING NWLY FLOW. MLCAPES AHEAD OF FRONT WILL CLIMB TO ABOVE 2000 J/KG WHICH WHEN COUPLED WITH THE SHEAR AND LAPSE RATES WILL PROVIDE INGREDIENTS FOR SEVERE STORMS. ETA SUGGESTS AN MCS WILL POSSIBLY DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT CENTRAL NEB THEN DROP SWD ACROSS KS THRU INSTABILITY AXIS DURING AFTERNOON/EVENING. SHEAR PROFILES FAVOR SUPERCELL FORMATION WHICH WILL ENHANCE PRIMARILY LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE MORE LIKELY IF A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS CAN DEVELOP AND MOVE SWD INTO THE INSTABILITY AXIS. ..HALES.. 08/07/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 7 16:51:12 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 07 Aug 2004 11:51:12 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200408071650.i77GoK900996@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 071648 SWODY2 SPC AC 071647 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1147 AM CDT SAT AUG 07 2004 VALID 081200Z - 091200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 E MQT 25 SSE OSH 35 WNW PIA 40 S IRK 10 W CNU 35 ENE GAG 35 SSW EHA 35 WNW HLC 45 WNW OLU 55 N AXN 65 NNW TVF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSW TUS 50 N TUS 50 SW SOW 45 SW GUP 15 SW GUP 50 NE DRO 35 ENE ASE 20 SW FCL 45 WNW AKO 45 SE AIA 30 NE VTN 35 SW ABR 30 SSE JMS 35 NW JMS 55 WNW MOT 80 NE ISN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E BOS 15 NW EFK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW APN 10 SW GRR 30 NW SLO 30 SSE VIH 25 NNE FYV 40 ESE OKC 45 S LTS 30 N ABI 35 S SEP 35 ESE ACT 30 NW LFT 50 NW GPT 25 W DHN 30 E SSI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER MS VLY TO THE CNTRL PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... STRONG MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW CROSSING INTO THE NRN PLAINS WILL TRANSLATE EWD INTO THE UPPER MS VLY REGION SUNDAY. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL SLOWLY TRACK FROM ERN ND EARLY SUNDAY TO NRN MN/NWRN ONTARIO BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. S OF THE LOW...A FRONT WILL SWEEP SEWD...REACHING A POSITION FROM NWRN WI-CNTRL IA-SRN HIGH PLAINS BY LATE SUNDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SEVERE TSTMS. ...UPPER MS VLY TO THE CNTRL PLAINS... FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO WRN MN EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL ADVECT MID-UPPER 60S DEW POINTS NWD INTO THE UPPER MS VLY. AS LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT SPREADS EWD...INHIBITION WILL WEAKEN AND TSTMS SHOULD INITIATE ALONG THE FRONT EARLY AFTERNOON SUNDAY. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON HOW OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEBRIS WILL MODULATE INSOLATION/DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BUT...ANY ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT WILL SPREAD INTO THE UPPER MS VLY BY SUNDAY EVENING. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...20-30 KTS...BUT GIVEN STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND H5 SIXTY METER HEIGHT FALLS...A FEW TSTMS ARE APT TO BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR HAIL. FARTHER SOUTH FROM IA INTO KS...WARM SECTOR IS EXPECTED TO BE MUCH MORE UNSTABLE. FULL INSOLATION IS EXPECTED TO DESTABILIZE THE BOUNDARY LAYER CHARACTERIZED BY TEMPERATURES NEAR 90F AND DEW POINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AFTERNOON SBCAPES 2000-2500 J/KG JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. COMBO OF CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND HEATING SHOULD ERODE THE CAP AND TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER IA/ERN NEB AND BACKBUILD SWWD INTO NRN KS BY MID AFTERNOON. THOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE AOB 30 KTS...STRONG INSTABILITY WILL PROBABLY BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE ESEWD INTO ERN IA...NRN MO AND CNTRL-SRN KS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT THE SEVERE THREATS SHOULD DIMINISH WITH TIME. PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS HAVE REFLECTED A HIGHER PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE IN THE MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS. ..RACY.. 08/07/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 8 07:34:38 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 08 Aug 2004 02:34:38 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200408080733.i787Xk913607@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 080731 SWODY2 SPC AC 080731 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0231 AM CDT SUN AUG 08 2004 VALID 091200Z - 101200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE TAD 25 WNW COS 20 WNW CYS 35 WSW BFF 45 SE SNY 45 SE GLD 25 SSW GCK 20 SW EHA 15 ESE TAD. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ENE CLE 30 ENE DAY 15 SW DNV 10 NNE MMO 40 NE MKG 10 E OSC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW HVR 65 ESE LWT 35 SW RAP BUB 30 ENE HLC 30 NNW HUT 40 E STJ 30 NW BRL 15 NNW JVL 35 NNE GRB 20 SW IWD 25 SSW BJI 10 W RRT ...CONT... 50 W ART 40 E BFD 35 SSE LBE 15 NNW CRW 15 NNE LEX 20 WSW BWG 20 NW DYR 30 E LIT 30 NE MLU 60 E LUL 20 NW DHN 30 NE VLD 10 NNE DAB ...CONT... 20 SE CRP 15 ENE NIR 35 NNW VCT 20 SE CLL 20 SSE TYR 45 SW PRX 20 NE MWL 15 WNW BWD 50 SW JCT 40 SE DRT ...CONT... CZZ 30 W BLH 50 SW PRC 50 NNE SOW 40 SE DRO 30 W 4FC 35 WSW CPR 30 NNE MQM 25 S S06 30 NNE 63S. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE CNTRL HI PLNS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE MIDWEST... ...SYNOPSIS... BROAD CYCLONIC PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF CANADA AND THE NERN U.S. THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHILE RIDGE HOLDS FIRM FROM THE SWRN DESERTS INTO BC/YUKON. LEAD IMPULSE IN CYCLONIC JET...NOW ENTERING WRN ND...SHOULD REACH NRN MN BY 12Z MONDAY AND CONTINUE E TO NEAR SSM BY 12Z TUESDAY. UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE...NOW OVER NW AB...EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY AS IT DROPS SE INTO SRN SASKATCHEWAN/MB. SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD SHORTWAVE SHOULD TRACK E ACROSS LK SUPERIOR ON MONDAY AS OCCLUDED/COLD FRONT SWEEPS SE ACROSS THE UPR MIDWEST/OH VLY. WRN PART OF SAME BOUNDARY SHOULD BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY FROM SE WY/ERN CO INTO SRN KS. ...CNTRL HI PLNS... WEAK...FAIRLY MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CNTRL HI PLNS ON MONDAY INVOF STALLING COLD FRONT...BENEATH 25-30 KT NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW ON ERN PERIPHERY OF WRN U.S. RIDGE. COUPLED WITH STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SETUP SHOULD SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SUSTAINED STORMS/SUPERCELLS ALONG AND JUST E OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...DESPITE ABSENCE OF AN IDENTIFIABLE SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE. HAIL AND HIGH WIND COULD ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS AS MLCAPE RISES TO AROUND 1500 J/KG. THIS ACTIVITY MAY CONSOLIDATE INTO A SMALL CLUSTER OR TWO...AND EXTEND A LIMITED THREAT FOR SEVERE S/SE TOWARD NE NM AND THE OK/TX PANHANDLE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. ...LWR MI INTO IL/IND/OH... A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL EXIST ALONG AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT CROSSING PARTS OF THE MIDWEST ON MONDAY...WHERE AMPLE /35-40 KT/ DEEP WLY SHEAR WILL EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL...HOWEVER...LIKELY REMAIN LIMITED AS A RESULT OF RECENT COOL AIR INVASION OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE SAME TIME... FLOW PATTERN SUGGESTS THAT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL PROBABLY BE FAIRLY WEAK /AROUND 6.5 DEG C PER KM/. NEVERTHELESS...ASSUMING AT LEAST MODEST SURFACE HEATING...RESULTING LOW LEVEL DESTABILIZATION MAY PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STORMS WITH HIGH WIND GIVEN STRENGTH OF DEEP SHEAR AND SUSTAINED FRONTAL CONVERGENCE. ..CORFIDI.. 08/08/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 8 17:05:53 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 08 Aug 2004 12:05:53 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200408081705.i78H51918657@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 081700 SWODY2 SPC AC 081659 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1159 AM CDT SUN AUG 08 2004 VALID 091200Z - 101200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE TAD 25 WNW COS 20 WNW CYS 35 WSW BFF 45 SE SNY 45 SE GLD 25 SSW GCK 20 SW EHA 15 ESE TAD. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ENE CLE 30 ENE DAY 15 SW DNV 10 NNE MMO 40 NE MKG 10 E OSC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CZZ 30 W BLH 50 SW PRC 50 NNE SOW 40 SE DRO 30 W 4FC 35 WSW CPR 30 NNE MQM 25 S S06 30 NNE 63S ...CONT... 35 NNW HVR 65 ESE LWT 35 SW RAP BUB 15 SW HSI 20 WSW FNB 15 WSW P35 30 NW BRL 15 NNW JVL 35 NNE GRB 20 SW IWD 25 SSW BJI 10 W RRT ...CONT... 50 W ART 40 E BFD 35 SSE LBE 15 NNW CRW 15 NNE LEX 20 WSW BWG 20 NW DYR 30 E LIT 30 NE MLU 60 E LUL 20 NW DHN 30 NE VLD 10 NNE DAB ...CONT... 20 SE CRP 15 ENE NIR 35 NNW VCT 20 SE CLL 20 SSE TYR 45 SW PRX 20 NE MWL 15 WNW BWD 50 SW JCT 40 SE DRT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CNTRL HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MIDWEST/CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION... ...SYNOPSIS... PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WILL UNDERGO SLIGHT DEEPENING ON MONDAY AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS DIG SEWD FROM SRN CANADA. WRN STATES UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY NWD INTO WRN CANADA. THE STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH SITUATED ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS WILL TRANSLATE EWD TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY MONDAY NIGHT. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EWD INTO LOWER MI...SWD THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS AND WWD INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. PORTIONS OF THIS FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE TSTMS. ...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS... ELY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL DEEPEN ON MONDAY ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS AS SURFACE PRESSURES RISE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. THIS WILL ADVECT/MAINTAIN AT LEAST LOW-MID 50S DEW POINTS BACK TO THE FRONT RANGE. HEATING AND STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR TSTMS TO DEVELOP HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. THOUGH UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE WEAK...ELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BENEATH 30-40 KT NWLY H5 FLOW WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO. ACTIVITY SHOULD CONGEAL INTO ONE OR MORE TSTM CLUSTERS AND MOVE TOWARD WRN KS AND THE TX/OK PNHDLS MONDAY NIGHT. ...UPPER MIDWEST/CNTRL GREAT LAKES... AS 30-60 METER H5 HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG NRN PLAINS SHORTWAVE TROUGH SPREAD EWD...TSTMS ARE APT TO DEVELOP ALONG EWD MOVING COLD FRONT. LIMITING FACTORS FOR SEVERE TSTMS INCLUDE POSSIBLE CLOUDS/LACK OF INSOLATION AND POOR MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES. INCREASING UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW REGIME THROUGH THE TROPOSPHERE...HOWEVER...WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SHORT LINES OF TSTMS THAT MAY GIVE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR OVER SRN LOWER MI...NWRN OH AND NRN IND. ..RACY.. 08/08/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 9 07:10:48 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 09 Aug 2004 02:10:48 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200408090710.i797AE901616@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 090707 SWODY2 SPC AC 090706 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0206 AM CDT MON AUG 09 2004 VALID 101200Z - 111200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW TCC 25 W TAD 40 WNW FCL 15 SE CYS 30 SSW GLD 10 NNE SGF 20 E FSM 20 S CDS 30 SSW TCC. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW ART UCA 15 NNE ABE 25 W HGR 25 SE PIT 35 NNE BUF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N FCA 40 N 3DU 45 ENE S80 40 WNW ALW 50 SW RDM 20 NE EUG 40 SSE OLM 35 ENE BLI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE DRT 30 SSE JCT 45 NNE CLL 35 NNW GGG 20 SSW ADM 50 NNW BGS 40 WSW INK 50 SW MRF ...CONT... SAN 20 ESE EED 30 W GNT 25 SE GUC 45 SSW RWL 10 NE JAC LVM 20 W 4BQ 20 N AIA 30 ENE MCK FLV 15 NW SLO LUK 20 W YNG 70 N ERI ...CONT... 35 ESE ECG 20 W RWI 20 ESE CLT 40 ENE MCN 45 NE MGR 10 NE JAX. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL AND SRN PLNS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE ERN GRT LKS/NRN APLCNS... ...SYNOPSIS... WRN RIDGE/ERN TROUGH PATTERN EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY ON TUESDAY AS IMPULSE NOW OVER AB DEEPENS AND CONTINUES SE FROM ND INTO MN AND WI. AT THE SAME TIME...LEAD IMPULSE NOW OVER MN EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT LIFTS NE INTO ERN ONTARIO/WRN QUEBEC. AMPLIFYING AB SYSTEM WILL USHER A NEW SURGE OF POLAR AIR INTO THE N CNTRL U.S...AND REINFORCE EXISTING COLD FRONT LIKELY TO EXTEND AT THE START OF THE PERIOD FROM LWR MI ACROSS THE MID MS VLY TO THE CNTRL HI PLNS. THE FRONT SHOULD ACCELERATE S/SE LATER TUESDAY...AND REACH A W TX/WRN KY/NW PA LINE BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. ...CNTRL/SRN PLNS... WNWLY MID LEVEL FLOW DOWNSTREAM FROM WRN STATES RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN TO BETWEEN 30 AND 35 KTS ACROSS THE CNTRL PLNS ON TUESDAY AS AB UPPER IMPULSE MOVES SE ACROSS ND/MN. THIS WILL MAINTAIN STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE PLUME ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS CO/KS...AND BOOST DEEP NWLY SHEAR TO AOA 40 KTS. COMBINATION OF SURFACE HEATING...MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE INFLOW AND CONVERGENCE ALONG COLD FRONT AND/OR OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM DAY ONE CONVECTION SHOULD SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF DIURNALLY ENHANCED STORMS OVER SE CO/ WRN AND SRN KS/NRN AND WRN OK AND THE TX PANHANDLE. POTENTIAL WILL ALSO EXIST FOR ELEVATED POST FRONTAL STORMS NWD/WWD INTO PARTS OF NEB AND NE CO AS SHALLOW COOL AIR MASS SURGES SWD BENEATH PERSISTENT WNW FLOW ALOFT. GIVEN LIKELIHOOD FOR SUSTAINED STORMS/SUPERCELLS...A THREAT WILL EXIST FOR LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND FROM SURFACE-BASED STORMS ALONG AND S OF FRONT. HAIL MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY POST FRONTAL CELLS IN NE CO AND KS. SOME OF THE SRN KS/OK/TX PANHANDLE ACTIVITY MAY EVOLVE INTO ONE OR TWO LARGE CLUSTERS THAT MOVE MAINLY S/SE AHEAD OF THE FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. ...ERN GRT LKS/NRN APLCNS... BAND OF MODERATE /30 TO 40 KT/ WLY FLOW ROUNDING BASE OF UPPER IMPULSE NOW IN MN WILL OVERSPREAD THE UPR OH VLY/NRN APLCNS ON TUESDAY. WITH MAIN UPPER VORT EXPECTED TO LIFT NEWD INTO ONTARIO/QUEBEC...LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE WEAK OVER THE NERN U.S. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALSO BE WEAK /AROUND 6.5 DEG C PER KM/. BUT SURFACE HEATING AND LINGERING CONVERGENCE ALONG ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT/PREFRONTAL TROUGH MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A FEW STRONG AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS GIVEN 25-30 KT DEEP WSWLY SHEAR AND MLCAPE APPROACHING 1000 J/KG. ..CORFIDI.. 08/09/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 9 17:28:40 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 09 Aug 2004 12:28:40 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200408091727.i79HRn918566@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 091726 SWODY2 SPC AC 091725 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1225 PM CDT MON AUG 09 2004 VALID 101200Z - 111200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CVS RTN FCL 25 NE LAR 55 SSE DGW BFF SNY 25 S IML HLC RSL ICT TUL MLC ADM SPS PVW CVS. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MSS 40 ENE UCA MSV ABE HGR MGW PIT FKL 40 N BUF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM WAL RIC DAN SPA 35 SSE AND AGS 40 E SAV ...CONT... 45 NW LRD HDO TPL TYR PRX ELP ...CONT... 20 W CZZ 30 SSE RAL RAL 30 S DAG EED INW ABQ SAF ALS RWL JAC 27U GEG 35 E EPH RDM 60 SE EUG 20 NE EUG 45 ENE BLI ...CONT... 45 NW CTB CTB GTF 3HT BIL SHR CDR LBF TOP OJC VIH MDH EVV LUK 40 SE DTW. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SERN WY...ERN CO...PORTIONS WRN/SRN KS...CENTRAL/WRN OK...OK/TX PANHANDLES...NERN NM... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL/WRN NY AND MUCH OF PA... ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NRN CONUS...AMIDST LARGER SCALE WAVE TRAIN CONTAINING WRN RIDGE AND GREAT LAKES TROUGH. UPPER LOW -- NOW EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AND VWP WINDS OVER MN/ONT BORDER REGION -- IS FCST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS LS AND OVER ADJACENT PORTIONS ONT BY 10/12Z...THEN WEAKEN AS IT APCHS NRN ONT/QUE BORDER. UPSTREAM PERTURBATION -- NOW TAKING SHAPE OVER W-CENTRAL SASK -- WILL DIG SEWD INTO LONGWAVE TROUGH...BECOME CLOSED LOW...AND EFFECTIVELY REPLACE PRESENT CYCLONE ACROSS LS/UPPER MI REGION. SFC COLD FRONT -- NOW EXTENDING FROM WI SWWD ACROSS IA TO NRN KS AND ERN CO -- WILL BE REINFORCED BY ANOTHER AREA OF BOUNDARY LAYER CAA ASSOCIATED WITH SECOND MIDLEVEL TROUGH. RESULTING BAROCLINIC ZONE SHOULD SHIFT SLOWLY SWD ACROSS KS...NRN OK AND PORTIONS OK/TX PANHANDLES THROUGH PERIOD. MEANWHILE ERN PORTION OF FRONT SHOULD MOVE EWD ACROSS ERN GREAT LAKES AND MID/UPPER OH VALLEY REGIONS...AS PARENT LOW OCCLUDES AND LIFTS NEWD OVER NERN ONT AND WRN QUE. ...SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS... SEVERE TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS ERN CO AND WRN KS...AND PERHAPS OVER CYS RIDGE AND RATON MESA AREAS AS WELL. LARGE/DAMAGING HAIL IS POSSIBLE GIVEN EXPECTED FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES FOR SUPERCELLS...STRONG BUOYANCY AND STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES. WNW TO NW MIDLEVEL FLOW IS PROGGED ACROSS THIS REGION BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON...RANGING FROM AROUND 30 KT SERN CO TO 40 KT SERN WY. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL FLOW IS FCST TO BE RELATIVELY WEAK...STRONG DIRECTIONAL TURING WITH HEIGHT SHOULD OCCUR NEAR AND N OF SFC FRONT. THIS ALSO WILL AID UPSLOPE MOISTURE ADVECTION AND ASCENT...COMBINING WITH INSOLATION TO WEAKEN CAP. RESULTANT MLCAPES ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED 2000 J/KG BETWEEN CYS-CAO...AND MAY EXCEED 3000 J/KG PORTIONS WRN KS. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STRONGLY DEVIANT MOTIONS FOR EARLY/DISCRETE SUPERCELLS -- TOWARD SSE OR S. RESULTANT STORM-RELATIVE FLOW FIELDS SUGGEST SOME TORNADO POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...HIGH LCL AND DEEP MIXED LAYERS ALONG AND S OF FRONT SUPPORT MORE OF AN ORGANIZED DAMAGING WIND EVENT BEGINNING LATE AFTERNOON OVER ERN CO/WRN KS REGION AND SPREADING SSEWD TO SEWD DURING EVENING. ...NERN CONUS... WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP WITHIN ABOUT 150 NM AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT DURING DAY -- AS DIABATIC HEATING OF BOUNDARY LAYER WEAKENS CAP AND SUBTLE CONVERGENCE AIDS IN INITIATION. SFC DEW POINTS MID 50S - MID 60S F WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES RANGING FROM 1000-2000 J/KG MOST AREAS. WHERE CLOUD COVER IS MINIMIZED -- ALLOWING STRONGEST DIABATIC HEATING -- WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYERS SHOULD DEVELOP AND SUPPORT STRONG-SEVERE GUST POTENTIAL. FROM PA NEWD ACROSS WRN NY...WARM-SECTOR KINEMATIC FIELDS WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY ABOUT 45-55 KT 500 MB FLOW AND NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL VERTICAL WIND PROFILES THROUGH TROPOSPHERE. 40-50 KT SHEAR PROGGED THROUGH 0-6 KM LAYER...AND PREFRONTAL 0-3 KM SRH IN 150-250 J/KG RANGE...EACH INDICATES SOME SUPERCELL POTENTIAL FOR DISCRETE CELLS. HOWEVER LINEAR/SEGMENTED MODE IS FAVORED IN THIS PROFILE WITH POTENTIAL FOR BOWS/LEWPS. THEREFORE MAIN THREAT SHOULD BE DAMAGING WIND...WITH MORE CONDITIONAL/ISOLATED POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES. MAIN CAVEATS ATTM ARE LACK OF STRONGER LOW LEVEL FORCING -- GIVEN ONLY MINOR/GRADUAL WIND SHIFT ACROSS FRONTAL ZONE -- AND RELATIVELY WEAK MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES LIMITING BUOYANCY. ..EDWARDS.. 08/09/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 9 17:38:02 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 09 Aug 2004 12:38:02 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200408091737.i79HbG922939@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 091734 SWODY2 SPC AC 091733 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1233 PM CDT MON AUG 09 2004 VALID 101200Z - 111200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CVS RTN FCL 25 NE LAR 55 SSE DGW BFF SNY 25 S IML HLC RSL ICT TUL MLC ADM SPS PVW CVS. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MSS 40 ENE UCA MSV ABE HGR MGW PIT FKL 40 N BUF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM WAL RIC DAN SPA 35 SSE AND AGS 40 E SAV ...CONT... 45 NW LRD HDO TPL TYR PRX ELP ...CONT... 20 W CZZ 30 SSE RAL RAL 30 S DAG EED INW ABQ SAF ALS RWL JAC 27U GEG 35 E EPH RDM 60 SE EUG 20 NE EUG 45 ENE BLI ...CONT... 45 NW CTB CTB GTF 3HT BIL SHR CDR LBF TOP OJC VIH MDH EVV LUK 40 SE DTW. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SERN WY...ERN CO...PORTIONS WRN/SRN KS...CENTRAL/WRN OK...OK/TX PANHANDLES...NERN NM... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL/WRN NY AND MUCH OF PA... ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NRN CONUS...AMIDST LARGER SCALE WAVE TRAIN CONTAINING WRN RIDGE AND GREAT LAKES TROUGH. UPPER LOW -- NOW EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AND VWP WINDS OVER MN/ONT BORDER REGION -- IS FCST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS LS AND OVER ADJACENT PORTIONS ONT BY 10/12Z...THEN WEAKEN AS IT APCHS NRN ONT/QUE BORDER. UPSTREAM PERTURBATION -- NOW TAKING SHAPE OVER W-CENTRAL SASK -- WILL DIG SEWD INTO LONGWAVE TROUGH...BECOME CLOSED LOW...AND EFFECTIVELY REPLACE PRESENT CYCLONE ACROSS LS/UPPER MI REGION. SFC COLD FRONT -- NOW EXTENDING FROM WI SWWD ACROSS IA TO NRN KS AND ERN CO -- WILL BE REINFORCED BY ANOTHER AREA OF BOUNDARY LAYER CAA ASSOCIATED WITH SECOND MIDLEVEL TROUGH. RESULTING BAROCLINIC ZONE SHOULD SHIFT SLOWLY SWD ACROSS KS...NRN OK AND PORTIONS OK/TX PANHANDLES THROUGH PERIOD. MEANWHILE ERN PORTION OF FRONT SHOULD MOVE EWD ACROSS ERN GREAT LAKES AND MID/UPPER OH VALLEY REGIONS...AS PARENT LOW OCCLUDES AND LIFTS NEWD OVER NERN ONT AND WRN QUE. ...SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS... SEVERE TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS ERN CO AND WRN KS...AND PERHAPS OVER CYS RIDGE AND RATON MESA AREAS AS WELL. LARGE/DAMAGING HAIL IS POSSIBLE GIVEN EXPECTED FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES FOR SUPERCELLS...STRONG BUOYANCY AND STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES. WNW TO NW MIDLEVEL FLOW IS PROGGED ACROSS THIS REGION BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON...RANGING FROM AROUND 30 KT SERN CO TO 40 KT SERN WY. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL FLOW IS FCST TO BE RELATIVELY WEAK...STRONG DIRECTIONAL TURING WITH HEIGHT SHOULD OCCUR NEAR AND N OF SFC FRONT. THIS ALSO WILL AID UPSLOPE MOISTURE ADVECTION AND ASCENT...COMBINING WITH INSOLATION TO WEAKEN CAP. RESULTANT MLCAPES ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED 2000 J/KG BETWEEN CYS-CAO...AND MAY EXCEED 3000 J/KG PORTIONS WRN KS. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STRONGLY DEVIANT MOTIONS FOR EARLY/DISCRETE SUPERCELLS -- TOWARD SSE OR S. RESULTANT STORM-RELATIVE FLOW FIELDS SUGGEST SOME TORNADO POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...HIGH LCL AND DEEP MIXED LAYERS ALONG AND S OF FRONT SUPPORT MORE OF AN ORGANIZED DAMAGING WIND EVENT BEGINNING LATE AFTERNOON OVER ERN CO/WRN KS REGION AND SPREADING SSEWD TO SEWD DURING EVENING. ...NERN CONUS... WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP WITHIN ABOUT 150 NM AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT DURING DAY -- AS DIABATIC HEATING OF BOUNDARY LAYER WEAKENS CAP AND SUBTLE CONVERGENCE AIDS IN INITIATION. SFC DEW POINTS MID 50S - MID 60S F WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES RANGING FROM 1000-2000 J/KG MOST AREAS. WHERE CLOUD COVER IS MINIMIZED -- ALLOWING STRONGEST DIABATIC HEATING -- WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYERS SHOULD DEVELOP AND SUPPORT STRONG-SEVERE GUST POTENTIAL. FROM PA NEWD ACROSS WRN NY...WARM-SECTOR KINEMATIC FIELDS WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY ABOUT 45-55 KT 500 MB FLOW AND NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL VERTICAL WIND PROFILES THROUGH TROPOSPHERE. 40-50 KT SHEAR PROGGED THROUGH 0-6 KM LAYER...AND PREFRONTAL 0-3 KM SRH IN 150-250 J/KG RANGE...EACH INDICATES SOME SUPERCELL POTENTIAL FOR DISCRETE CELLS. HOWEVER LINEAR/SEGMENTED MODE IS FAVORED IN THIS PROFILE WITH POTENTIAL FOR BOWS/LEWPS. THEREFORE MAIN THREAT SHOULD BE DAMAGING WIND...WITH MORE CONDITIONAL/ISOLATED POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES. MAIN CAVEATS ATTM ARE LACK OF STRONGER LOW LEVEL FORCING -- GIVEN ONLY MINOR/GRADUAL WIND SHIFT ACROSS FRONTAL ZONE -- AND RELATIVELY WEAK MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES LIMITING BUOYANCY. ..EDWARDS.. 08/09/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 11 07:32:38 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 11 Aug 2004 02:32:38 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200408110731.i7B7VsV18214@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 110729 SWODY2 SPC AC 110728 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0228 AM CDT WED AUG 11 2004 VALID 121200Z - 131200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S DMN 10 SW ONM 30 NNW ALS 20 SSW COS 50 N CAO 30 NNW HOB 20 SSE P07. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE CEW 15 NE LGC 15 NNW AND 20 SSE ROA 30 ESE MRB 20 NNW PHL 15 SSE NEL ...CONT... 20 NE JAX 60 NNW PIE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NW MRY 50 W RBL 25 NE 4BK 25 ENE ONP 45 N PDX 35 E DLS 55 SW BNO RNO 35 ESE BIH LAS 40 NNW GCN 35 N SOW 10 NE GNT 10 NE EGE 25 SSE CYS 45 SE GLD 25 E LBL 10 SE AMA LBB 50 WSW SJT 45 NW SAT 30 NNW CLL 30 SSW HEZ GAD 20 NE 5I3 35 NNW LBE 25 NNW PBG. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF NM...SRN CO AND FAR W TX... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NW FL AND GA NEWD TO THE MID ATLANTIC CST... ...SYNOPSIS... HIGHLY AMPLIFIED WRN RIDGE/ERN TROUGH PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER NOAM ON THURSDAY AS SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW OVER WRN MANITOBA DEEPENS AND CONTINUES S/SE INTO THE MID MS VLY...AND TROUGH NOW OVER IA/WI LIFTS NE INTO QUEBEC. THE RESULT WILL BE A VERY UNUSUAL /FOR AUGUST/ FULL LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE E CNTRL U.S. BY EARLY FRIDAY. AT LOWER LEVELS...MAIN COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH IA SHORTWAVE SHOULD EXTEND ALONG THE ERN SLOPES OF THE APLCNS EARLY THURSDAY. THE BOUNDARY WILL PROBABLY REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE PERIOD AS SHARPENING OF LARGE SCALE TROUGH BACKS MEAN FLOW TO S/SWLY ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD. ELSEWHERE...WRN EDGE OF LOW LEVEL COOL AIR MASS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH EXPECTED TO BACK-DOOR SW ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN RCKYS. ..SRN RCKYS AND ADJACENT HI PLNS... STRONG SURGE OF POLAR AIR INTO THE CNTRL/SRN PLNS EXPECTED TO SHUNT EFFECTIVE MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AXIS WELL W INTO NM AND S CNTRL CO BY THURSDAY...DESPITE MORE EWD DEPICTION ACROSS THE SRN HI PLNS IN THE GFS. COMBINATION OF STRONG DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND UPSLOPE FLOW WITHIN RESIDUAL AXIS OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD LEAD TO AFTN/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NM/S CNTRL CO MTNS. STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 40 KT DEEP NWLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH MODERATE /30 KT/ NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW SUSTAINED STORMS/SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL/HIGH WIND AND PERHAPS A TORNADO. SETUP SHOULD FAVOR CONSOLIDATION INTO ONE OR TWO SWD-MOVING CLUSTERS THURSDAY NIGHT. ...FL PNHDL/GA NEWD TO MID ATLANTIC CST... VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ENVIRONMENT /DEWPOINTS AOA 70F/ WILL BE PRESENT ALONG AND E OF STALLING FRONT OVER THE E SLOPES OF THE SRN AND CNTRL APLCNS. THIS WILL COMPENSATE FOR WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO SUPPORT DIURNALLY ENHANCED STORMS OVER THE PIEDMONT/CSTL PLNS FROM GA NEWD INTO THE DELMARVA REGION. LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT MAY INCREASE WITH TIME AS JET ENTRANCE REGION DEVELOPS ALOFT ON ERN SIDE OF AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH. FARTHER S...REMNANT CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH T.S. BONNIE WILL ENHANCE LOW LEVEL SHEAR/MEAN FLOW OVER THE FL PNHDL AND SRN GA. MODERATE TO SEASONABLY STRONG /35-40 KT/ DEEP SWLY SHEAR THROUGHOUT REGION WILL SUPPORT CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION INTO BANDS WITH POSSIBLE BOWING SEGMENTS. STRONGER CONVERGENCE/BACKED FLOW INVOF ANY WEAK FRONTAL WAVES...AND INVOF BONNIE...MAY ALSO SUPPORT LOW LEVEL STORM ROTATION AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT GIVEN HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE CONTENT. ..CORFIDI.. 08/11/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 11 17:35:49 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 11 Aug 2004 12:35:49 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200408111735.i7BHZ1V01536@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 111732 SWODY2 SPC AC 111731 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1231 PM CDT WED AUG 11 2004 VALID 121200Z - 131200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WSW PFN MCN CLT GSO 45 SW DCA 35 E CXY TTN 35 E NEL ...CONT... 35 SSE SSI 55 S CTY. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W ELP 35 ENE TCS 35 E ABQ 35 N LVS RTN TAD COS 30 W LIC 35 SE LIC LAA LBL 65 NNE AMA AMA CVS HOB 40 S P07. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CZZ RAL 35 NNE SBA PRB SJC 45 ESE EKA 40 SE OTH EUG SLE PDX 40 ESE OLM 25 NE BLI ...CONT... 30 N 63S EPH PDT BKE 50 NE BNO 4LW RNO 35 N BIH LAS FLG INW GNT 4SL 50 WSW LAR WRL SHR GCC AKO GCK DDC P28 END 40 ENE CSM CSM 35 NW CDS BGS DRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WNW MFE ALI NIR POE ESF CBM 5I3 EKN AOO PSB ART MSS. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FL PANHANDLE TO SERN PA/NJ/DELMARVA REGION... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SERN CO TO SRN NM AND FAR W TX... ...SYNOPSIS... UNUSUAL PATTERN ALOFT IS EVOLVING FOR EARLY-MID AUGUST...WITH HIGH AMPLITUDE MEAN TROUGH FROM ONT TO GULF OF MEXICO...AND INTENSE RIDGE FROM LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY ACROSS PACIFIC NW AND WRN CANADA. ONE OR MORE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH BASE OF LARGER SCALE TROUGH OVER MS/OH VALLEYS COULD CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK FRONTAL-WAVE CYCLOGENESIS OVER VA/CAROLINAS PIEDMONT REGION...ALONG BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING FROM WRN NEW ENGLAND SWWD TO NWRN GULF BY 13/00Z. ALSO ENTANGLED WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE TS BONNIE...WHOSE REMNANTS ARE FCST TO MOVE NEWD FROM NERN GULF TOWARD CAROLINAS BY END OF PERIOD. ...ATLANTIC SEABOARD...SERN CONUS... TSTMS MAY FORM INVOF SFC FRONT FROM SERN PA/SRN NJ AREA THROUGH TIDEWATER...WHERE AFTERNOON MLCAPES 1000-1500 J/KG ARE POSSIBLE...AND WHERE BACKED SFC FLOW NEAR FRONT MAY ENHANCE VERTICAL SHEAR ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW SUPERCELLS. MAIN THREATS WOULD BE DAMAGING GUSTS AND A FEW TORNADOES. FARTHER S... WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF SFC FRONT FROM TIDEWATER REGION SWWD THROUGH CAROLINAS PIEDMONT EARLY DURING DAY...SUPPORTED BY POCKETS OF STRONGER HEATING UNDER CLOUD BREAKS...NEAR-FRONTAL LIFT AND WEAK CAPPING. HOWEVER...VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN WITH SWD EXTENT OVER PREFRONTAL AIR MASS NOT YET AFFECTED BY REMAINS OF T.S. BONNIE. THEREFORE SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS MINIMAL OVER THIS REGION PRIOR TO ARRIVAL OF REMAINS OF TS BONNIE. LATEST NHC ADVISORIES -- I.E. WMO HEADER WTNT22 KNHC -- INDICATE BONNIE WILL MOVE ASHORE FL PANHANDLE EARLY IN DAY-2 PERIOD AND MOVE NEWD PARALLEL TO FRONTAL ZONE...WITH REMNANTS OVER PORTIONS CAROLINAS/SERN VA BY 13/12Z. DURING AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...FOREGOING AIR MASS SHOULD BE CHARACTERIZED BY MARGINAL BUOYANCY OF LESS THAN 1000 J/KG IN MOST AREAS -- AS NEAR MOIST-ADIABATIC MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES OCCUR ATOP BOUNDARY LAYER WHERE HEATING IS LIMITED BY CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER... EXPECT VERY MOIST AIR MASS...INCREASING LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS...POCKETS OF HIGHER CAPE UNDER CLOUD BREAKS...AND ENLARGING HODOGRAPHS WITH APCH OF TROPICAL CYCLONE REMAINS. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES AND OCCASIONAL SEVERE GUSTS EARLY IN PERIOD OVER FL PANHANDLE/SRN GA AND SHIFTING NEWD...MAINLY RIGHTWARD OF PROJECTED TRACK. ...SRN ROCKIES/PECOS VALLEY... WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER ERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES OF SRN CO AND ERN/SRN NM...SOME OF WHICH WILL BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREAT. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND ALSO IS POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT OUTLOOK AREA. TORNADO POTENTIAL APPEARS MARGINAL ATTM BECAUSE OF RELATIVELY HIGH LCL IN MOST AREAS. HOWEVER...40-50 KT 0-6 KM SHEARS AND LIKELIHOOD FOR STRONGLY DEVIANT RIGHT MOTIONS -- ENHANCING STORM-RELATIVE FLOWS -- SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO SUPERCELL POTENTIAL. WEAK BUT STRONGLY VEERING WIND PROFILES IN LOW LEVELS...MEAN NWLY FLOW ALOFT...AND MERIDIONAL ORIENTATION OF LIKELY INSTABILITY AXIS ALL SUGGEST ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE SSEWD TO SSWWD AND REMAIN WITHIN RELATIVELY NARROW CORRIDOR OF FAVORABLE MOISTURE/BUOYANCY OVER SERN CO AND ERN NM. ELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW COMPONENT SHOULD MAINTAIN MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW. MID-LATE AFTERNOON/PRE-STORM MLCAPE SHOULD MAX OUT AT AROUND 1500 J/KG OVER E-CENTRAL NM...DECREASING TOWARD 500-1000 J/KG IN SERN CO WHERE SFC THETAE IS LOWER...AND ALSO DECREASING TOWARD SRN NM BECAUSE OF STRONGER HEATING AND LOWER SFC RH. ACTIVITY MAY EVOLVE INTO ONE OR TWO SWD MOVING MCS BEFORE WEAKENING THURSDAY NIGHT. ..EDWARDS.. 08/11/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 12 07:34:05 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 12 Aug 2004 02:34:05 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200408120733.i7C7XMV21209@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 120730 SWODY2 SPC AC 120729 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0229 AM CDT THU AUG 12 2004 VALID 131200Z - 141200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W CTY AGS 55 ESE LYH 10 NW AVP 15 SE GFL 20 SSE PSM. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 W ELP 30 NW ALS 30 NNW COS 25 SW LAA 35 SSE CVS 20 SE P07. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WNW PRB 10 SSW SAC 35 ESE CEC 10 SSW EUG 15 SW SEA 50 WNW EAT 35 E YKM 55 NNW BNO 70 ESE 4LW 30 E LOL 45 SW ELY 40 E MLF 45 SW 4BL 20 SE CEZ 25 ESE MTJ 45 ESE CAG 35 S CPR 25 SSE 81V 30 NNW MHN 15 SW MCK 50 S DDC 10 WSW CDS 65 NE BGS 40 WSW SJT 25 SSE DRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE CEW 30 WSW AHN 30 NNE HKY 25 W SHD 30 SW DUJ 60 WNW ART. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE ERN SEABOARD... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER NM/SRN CO AND FAR W TX... ...SYNOPSIS... HIGHLY AMPLIFIED WRN RIDGE/ERN TROUGH PATTERN SHOULD ATTAIN MAXIMUM AMPLITUDE ON FRIDAY AS IMPULSE NOW DROPPING S ACROSS SD REACHES THE LWR OH VLY AND THEN BEGINS TO EJECT NNE ACROSS THE LWR GRT LKS. THE IMPULSE SHOULD INDUCE SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG STALLED FRONT OVER THE ERN SLOPES OF THE CNTRL APLCNS EARLY IN THE DAY...AT ABOUT THE SAME TIME THAT REMNANT CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH T.S. BONNIE REACHES THE NC/VA BORDER. THE COMBINED SURFACE WAVE/T.S. REMNANT SHOULD ACCELERATE NNE ALONG THE FRONT LATER FRIDAY...AND EXIT THE U.S. NEAR THE VT/NH BORDER BY 06Z SATURDAY. FARTHER S...LATEST NHC FORECASTS INDICATE THAT HRCN CHARLEY WILL MOVE FROM SW OF FMY TO ERN SC DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS. THE ECMWF...MEANWHILE... DEPICTS A FAR DIFFERENT SCENARIO. THAT MODEL FORECASTS CHARLEY TO BE LEFT BEHIND OVER THE CNTRL GULF OF MEXICO AS ERN U.S. TROUGH DEAMPLIFIES LATER FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY. IN THE WEST...A DOUBLE-STRUCTURED SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OFF THE CA CST WILL LIFT SLOWLY ENE INTO THE WRN GRT BASIN THIS PERIOD AS DEEP...NEARLY CUT-OFF LOW PERSISTS IN THE NE PACIFIC. ...ERN SEABOARD... LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE ENHANCED /AOA 40 KT/ INVOF DEVELOPING FRONTAL WAVE/T.S. REMNANT OVER THE ERN PIEDMONT/CSTL PLN REGION OF NC/VA EARLY FRIDAY. COUPLED WITH RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE INFLOW/LOW LCLS...THIS MAY POSE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES DESPITE UNFAVORABLE TIME OF DAY. THE TORNADO THREAT WILL LIKELY PERSIST...AND MAY INCREASE...AS WAVE MOVES NNE ACROSS ERN MD/DE/SE PA AND NJ LATER IN THE DAY...WHERE LIMITED SURFACE HEATING WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST MODEST LOW LEVEL DESTABILIZATION. THE THREAT MAY REACH SE NY/SRN NEW ENG BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WHERE UNUSUALLY STRONG /40-50 KT/ SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW AND ENTRANCE REGION OF 100 KT HIGH LEVEL JET WILL ENHANCE DEEP SHEAR/LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT. SURFACE HEATING IN MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND ENVIRONMENT S OF WAVE MAY ALSO SUPPORT RENEWED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SWD ALONG FRONT INTO THE ERN CAROLINAS LATER IN THE DAY...WHERE EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS/BOWING SEGMENTS MAY POSE A THREAT FOR HIGH WIND DESPITE WEAK LAPSE RATES. FARTHER S...CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH HRCN CHARLEY WILL POSE A NWD-MOVING THREAT FOR TORNADOES THROUGHOUT THE DAY ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA. THIS THREAT MAY REAPPEAR LATE IN THE PERIOD OVER CSTL PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS DEPENDING UPON EVENTUAL MOTION OF THE STORM /SEE LATER NHC FORECASTS FOR DETAILS/. ...NM/FAR W TX AND SRN HI PLNS... CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR STRONG...DIURNALLY ENHANCED STORMS OVER THE MTNS OF SRN CO/NM AND PERHAPS FAR W TX THIS PERIOD AS LARGE SCALE PATTERN REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED OVER REGION. SUFFICIENT /35-40 KT/ DEEP SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED/SUSTAINED ACTIVITY AND PERHAPS A FEW SUPERCELLS GIVEN PRESENCE OF AMPLE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE /DEWPOINTS AOA 55 F/ AND STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD CONFINE SEVERE RISK TO HAIL/HIGH WIND. THE STORMS MAY MERGE INTO A SMALL MCS FRIDAY NIGHT. ...NRN CA/CASCADES... A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY DEVELOP WITH AFTERNOON HEATING OVER THE MTNS OF NRN CA/WRN ORE...ALONG RIBBON OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADING NNE AHEAD OF PACIFIC SHORTWAVE. ..CORFIDI.. 08/12/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 12 17:31:42 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 12 Aug 2004 12:31:42 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200408121731.i7CHV0V18243@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 121729 SWODY2 SPC AC 121728 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK ISSUED BY AFWA OFFUTT AIR FORCE BASE BELLEVUE NE 1228 PM CDT THU AUG 12 2004 VALID 131200Z - 141200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NNE PFN 40 ENE MAI 45 SW MCN 45 N AGS 30 ENE LYH 25 W CXY 40 ENE BGM 15 SSW RUT PSM ...CONT... 10 WNW PNS 30 WSW AUO 20 ESE RMG 30 NNW HSS 15 NW BKW HLG 25 NW JHW. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N OTH 25 W SLE 30 NW DLS 45 W PDT 50 N BNO 55 NNW WMC 35 E LOL 50 SW ELY 45 E MLF 50 W EGE 35 S DGW 35 S RAP 50 NW VTN 15 S ANW 15 ENE EAR 15 S SLN 20 E OKC 15 WSW ABI 20 SE DRT ...CONT... ELP 40 N ALM 45 N 4CR 40 E ALS 20 NNE PUB 55 N LAA 55 ENE LAA 25 SW LBL 30 ENE AMA 15 ESE LBB 25 N MAF 15 N FST 25 SW P07. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ERN NM/SE CO/ W TX... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ERN SEABOARD... ...SYNOPSIS... A HIGH AMPLITUDE MERIDIONAL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE COUNTRY WITH A RIDGE IN THE W AND A TROUGH OVER THE E. THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO REACH A MAXIMUM AMPLITUDE ON FRIDAY AS AN IMPULSE DROPPING S ACROSS SD ON DAY 1 REACHES THE LWR OH VLY AND THEN BEGINS TO EJECT NNE ACROSS THE LWR GRT LKS. THIS IMPULSE SHOULD INDUCE SURFACE WAVES ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE ERN SLOPES OF THE CNTRL APLCNS EARLY IN THE DAY...AT ABOUT THE SAME TIME THAT REMNANT CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH T.S. BONNIE REACHES THE NC/VA BORDER. THE COMBINED SURFACE WAVE/T.S. REMAINS SHOULD ACCELERATE NNE ALONG THE FRONT LATER FRIDAY SUPPORTED BY FAIRLY STRONG SWLY FLOW ALOFT...AND EXIT THE U.S. NEAR THE VT/NH BORDER BY 06Z SATURDAY. FARTHER S...LATEST NHC FORECASTS INDICATE THAT HURCN CHARLEY WILL MOVE FROM SW OF FMY TO ERN SC DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS. IN THE WEST...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OFF THE CA CST WILL LIFT SLOWLY ENE INTO THE WRN GRT BASIN THIS PERIOD AS A DEEP NEARLY CUT-OFF LOW PERSISTS IN THE NE PACIFIC. ...ERN SEABOARD... LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT 40 KT INVOF DEVELOPING FRONTAL WAVE/T.S. REMNANT OVER THE ERN PIEDMONT/CSTL PLN REGION OF NC/VA EARLY FRIDAY. THE VERTICAL SHEAR COUPLED WITH ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOIST INFLOW/LOW LCLS MAY BE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES DESPITE UNFAVORABLE TIME OF DAY. THE TORNADO THREAT WILL LIKELY PERSIST AND MAY INCREASE AS WAVE MOVES NNE ACROSS ERN MD/DE/SE PA AND NJ LATER IN THE DAY...WHERE LIMITED SURFACE HEATING WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST SOME LOW LEVEL DESTABILIZATION. THE THREAT MAY REACH SE NY/SRN NEW ENG BY EARLY AFTERNOON WHERE UNUSUALLY STRONG /40-50 KT/ SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW AND ENTRANCE REGION OF 100 KT HIGH LEVEL JET WILL ENHANCE DEEP SHEAR/LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT. SURFACE HEATING IN MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND ENVIRONMENT S OF WAVE MAY ALSO SUPPORT RENEWED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SWD ALONG FRONT INTO THE ERN CAROLINAS LATER IN THE DAY WHERE EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS/BOWING SEGMENTS MAY POSE A THREAT FOR HIGH WIND DESPITE WEAK LAPSE RATES. FARTHER S...CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH HURCN CHARLEY WILL POSE A THREAT FOR TORNADOES THROUGHOUT THE DAY ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA. THIS THREAT MAY REAPPEAR LATE IN THE PERIOD OVER CSTL PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS DEPENDING UPON EVENTUAL MOTION OF THE STORM /SEE LATER NHC FORECASTS FOR DETAILS/. ...NM/W TX AND SRN HI PLNS... CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR STRONG...DIURNALLY ENHANCED STORMS OVER THE MTNS OF SRN CO/NM AND W TX THIS PERIOD AS THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED OVER REGION. EXPECT 35-40KT OF DEEP SHEAR TO BE PRESENT TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED/SUSTAINED ACTIVITY. PRESENCE OF AMPLE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE /DEWPOINTS AOA 55 F/ AND STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY SUPPORT A FEW SUPERCELLS. WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD CONFINE SEVERE RISK TO HAIL/HIGH WIND. ...NRN CA/CASCADES... EXPECT ISOLD TSTMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE MTNS OF NRN CA/WRN OR AS A BAND OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF A PAC SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE REGION DURING MAX HEATING. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE THERE IS LOCALLY STRONG OROGRAPHIC LIFT. ..AFWA.. 08/12/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 13 06:57:47 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 13 Aug 2004 01:57:47 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200408130657.i7D6v7V11591@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 130654 SWODY2 SPC AC 130652 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0152 AM CDT FRI AUG 13 2004 VALID 141200Z - 151200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE DAB 40 NNW GNV 40 SW AGS 15 NNW DAN 30 NW ILG 20 ESE NEL. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE 4CR 20 SW DEN 35 E FCL 35 WNW GLD 25 ENE LBB 45 E ROW 40 ESE 4CR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW CTY 20 SSW AHN 20 E CRW 35 SSE SLK 25 SSW HUL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE INL 35 WSW BJI JMS 15 SSW ISN 65 NNE GGW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE IPL 45 N TRM 35 W NID 15 ESE MER 50 S RBL 25 W MFR 30 NNW PDX 30 NE BLI ...CONT... 35 NNW 63S 65 S S80 35 NNW TWF 25 N OGD 35 N LAR 15 S 81V 40 NNW RAP 35 N VTN 20 NW GRI 30 NNW END 35 SSW SPS 45 ESE P07. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE SRN AND MID ATLANTIC... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED BY LONGWAVE RIDGING OVER THE WRN U.S. AND A TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES. REMNANTS OF TROPICAL SYSTEM CHARLIE WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE PERIOD AS IT IS CARRIED NNEWD WITHIN MODERATE SSWLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH. NWLY FLOW REGIME WILL ALSO LIKELY REMAIN ACTIVE...CONVECTIVELY SPEAKING...OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS AS WEAK DISTURBANCES/SPEED MAXIMA SHIFT SEWD DURING THE PERIOD. ...ERN U.S... HURRICANE CHARLIE IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR BRUNSWICK/GA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WITH A TRACK GENERALLY NNEWD WITH THE REMNANT CIRCULATION CENTER MOVING ACROSS ERN/CENTRAL CAROLINAS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE DELMARVA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. APPEARS INFLUX OF MOIST /I.E. SFC DEW POINTS IN THE 70S/ AND DESTABILIZING AIR MASS WILL OCCUR ALONG AND EAST OF CHARLIE/S TRACK SATURDAY. THEREFORE...GIVEN THE LOCATION OF ENHANCED LOW TO DEEP LAYER SHEAR...A THREAT OF TORNADOES AND WIND DAMAGE WITHIN FAST MOVING CONVECTIVE LINES WILL SPREAD NWD THROUGH THE PERIOD. ATTM...OFFICIAL TRACK SUGGESTS PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL EXTEND FROM THE SERN ATLANTIC COAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. ...CENTRAL ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS... SBCAPES FROM 1000-2000 J/KG ARE AGAIN FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE CO ROCKIES SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AS BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS RELATIVELY MOIST UNDER STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. SHEAR VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AS STORMS DEVELOP AND MOVE GENERALLY SSEWD INTO ERN CO AND THE HIGH PLAINS OF NM/WRN TX. LARGE HAIL AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN BE EXPECTED INTO THE MID EVENING... THOUGH STORMS MAY EVOLVE INTO ONE OR MORE MCSS INTO THE SRN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ALONG 30-35 KT SLY LLJ AFTER DARK WITH ATTENDANT WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL SHOULD THIS ACTIVITY REMAIN ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. ...WRN U.S... MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ABUNDANT WITHIN LONGWAVE RIDGING OVER THE WRN STATES SATURDAY. THIS WILL AGAIN SUPPORT SCATTERED CONVECTION...MAINLY OVER AND NEAR HIGHER TERRAIN...AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN AND AIR MASS DESTABILIZES WITH DAY TIME HEATING. APPEARS A FEW STRONGER STORMS MAY DEVELOP INTO PORTIONS OF THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...WHERE MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BE A BIT STRONGER AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH OFF THE PAC NW COAST. THEREFORE WILL INCLUDE LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES ATTM. ..EVANS.. 08/13/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 13 17:36:56 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 13 Aug 2004 12:36:56 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200408131736.i7DHaGV30597@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 131733 SWODY2 SPC AC 131732 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1232 PM CDT FRI AUG 13 2004 VALID 141200Z - 151200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MLB 30 NE CTY 40 SW AGS 30 N GSO 15 SSE BWI 20 ESE NEL. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NE 4CR 35 W COS 35 NW AKO 30 NNW GLD 40 NW LTS 70 N ABI 40 ENE BGS 30 N MAF 50 NE 4CR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW TLH 20 SW RMG 50 SSW TYS 20 ESE CRW 20 NNE IPT 10 N ORH 25 W BGR 45 NNW CAR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE INL 35 WSW BJI JMS 15 SSW ISN 65 NNE GGW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE IPL 45 N TRM 35 W NID 15 ESE MER 50 S RBL 25 W MFR 30 NNW PDX 30 NE BLI ...CONT... 35 NNW 63S 35 ENE YKM 55 SE BKE 50 SSW VEL 50 N CYS 50 NW PHP 50 WSW ABR 20 SW YKN 35 S P28 40 SSW DAL 40 E JCT 25 WNW DRT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COAST STATES FROM FL NWD TO SRN NEW ENGLAND... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CONUS WITH A RIDGE PERSISTING IN THE WEST AND A TROUGH IN THE EAST. OTHER / OBVIOUS FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE CHARLEY...WHICH SHOULD BE MOVING NNEWD ACROSS NRN FL AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. CHARLEY IS FORECAST TO MOVE NNEWD THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COAST STATES ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES. OTHER AREA OF SEVERE THREAT SHOULD EXIST ACROSS THE CENTRAL / SRN HIGH PLAINS...WHERE MODERATE NWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ATOP LOW-LEVEL SELYS SHOULD PROVIDE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE / SUPERCELL STORMS. ...ATLANTIC COAST FROM FL TO SRN NEW ENGLAND... CHARLEY WILL WEAKEN SLOWLY AS IT MOVES NNEWD FROM NRN FL ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. AS LOW-LEVEL SELY FLOW INCREASES UP THE ATLANTIC COAST DOWNSTREAM OF CHARLEY...SW-NE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS / SERN VA. THIS BOUNDARY COULD FOCUS A TORNADO THREAT...WITHIN REGION OF BROADER SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ASSOCIATED WITH FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS IN NERN QUADRANT OF THE STORM. THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING...AS THE CHARLEY CONTINUES NNEWD TOWARD THE DELMARVA REGION. ...CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS TO THE FRONT RANGE... MODERATE NWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS ALONG REAR SIDE OF PERSISTENT CENTRAL AND ERN U.S. TROUGH. MEANWHILE...LOW-LEVEL SELY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ALSO REMAIN ACROSS THIS REGION...WHICH WILL ALLOW CONTINUED ADVECTION OF MODEST /LOW 60S DEWPOINTS/ MOISTURE NWWD INTO THE REGION. DEGREE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH AFTERNOON HEATING WILL ALLOW 500 TO 1500 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE TO DEVELOP...SUPPORTING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT -- INITIALLY EXPECTED ACROSS ERN CO AND ADJACENT NERN NM. WITH LOW-LEVEL SELY FLOW VEERING / INCREASING TO 25 TO 30 KT AT MID-LEVELS...SHEAR PROFILES WILL FAVOR ORGANIZED / ROTATING UPDRAFTS. EXPECT THREAT FOR HAIL / DAMAGING WINDS...WHICH SHOULD SPREAD SWD / SEWD WITH TIME AS SUPERCELLS DEVELOP / MOVE INTO PARTS OF SWRN KS AND THE TX / OK PANHANDLES. STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING / OVERNIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL JET / INFLOW INCREASES. WITH ETA MODEL SUGGESTING SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SERN CO DURING THE AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO WEAK VORT MAX MOVING SEWD ACROSS THIS REGION...ENHANCED UVV AND STRONGER SHEAR PROFILES MAY SUPPORT A GREATER SEVERE THREAT ACROSS SERN CO / SWRN KS / THE OK AND NRN TX PANHANDLES. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO TIMING OF ANY SUBTLE MID-LEVEL FEATURE PRECLUDES INCREASING THE SEVERE PROBABILITY ATTM. ..GOSS.. 08/13/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 14 07:14:59 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 14 Aug 2004 02:14:59 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200408140714.i7E7ETV00337@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 140711 SWODY2 SPC AC 140710 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0210 AM CDT SAT AUG 14 2004 VALID 151200Z - 161200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNE RRT 60 ENE STC 25 E FRM 20 SSW HSI 30 SSE LIC 40 E FCL 45 NW MBG 70 NNE DVL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NW CTB 30 SSE LVM 45 NW RWL 45 NNE LAR 45 NNW CDR 35 N DIK 55 N MOT ...CONT... 40 NW CMX 30 NW LSE 30 NNE STJ 10 NW BVO 30 NNE ADM 30 N DAL 30 SSW BWD 30 SSE FST 95 SSE MRF ...CONT... 50 SW TUS 40 WNW PHX 35 NNW NID TVL 70 SSE RDM 30 ENE BLI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNE AQQ 35 SSE CSG 35 W CHA 15 NE LEX 40 NNW DAY 20 N MTC. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PART OF THE NRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... LONGWAVE RIDGE WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE WRN STATES SUNDAY. DOWNSTREAM...A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG SEWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND TOWARDS THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY...EJECTING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENEWD ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES REGION. REMNANTS OF CHARLEY ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE NEAR LONG ISLAND AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WHICH WILL LIFT QUICKLY ACROSS ERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY. ...NRN PLAINS... LOW LEVEL SLY FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NRN PLAINS SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH WILL ALLOW BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY. ETA AND GFS ARE CURRENTLY FORECASTING MID 50F TO LOWER 60F SURFACE DEW POINTS AHEAD OF SURFACE WIND SHIFT/FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE SEWD INTO ERN ND/CENTRAL SD BY LATE IN THE DAY. DEEP ASCENT AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD OVERCOME CAPPING AND ALLOW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WITH THIS FEATURE INTO THE NRN PLAINS...GIVEN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE. FARTHER SW...HEATING AND LIFT MAY SUPPORT MORE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WHERE AIR MASS WILL BE MORE UNSTABLE. SHEAR VALUES WILL BE MARGINAL...YET STILL SUFFICIENT...FOR SUPERCELLS WHICH WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. ACTIVITY MAY INCREASE IN COVERAGE...BUT BECOME MORE ELEVATED...AFTER DARK AS LLJ DE-COUPLES. THIS MAY SPREAD THREAT OF ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY AND THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. ...NORTHEAST... WILL MAINTAIN LOW PROBABILITIES OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS REMNANTS OF CHARLEY ARE FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY. PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE FROM DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. PORTIONS OF THE AREA MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO SLIGHT RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS ONCE CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN TROPICAL SYSTEM/S EVENTUAL TRACK. ..EVANS.. 08/14/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 14 17:40:20 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 14 Aug 2004 12:40:20 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200408141739.i7EHdkV20262@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 141737 SWODY2 SPC AC 141736 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1236 PM CDT SAT AUG 14 2004 VALID 151200Z - 161200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 W RRT 40 E FAR 20 S RWF 30 E OMA 15 SSE CNK 35 WNW GCK 10 NE PUB FCL 30 E CDR 55 N DVL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SW TUS 70 NW GBN 35 S BIH 15 SW RNO 60 SE EUG 10 NE BLI ...CONT... 30 NW CTB 30 SSE LVM 45 NW RWL 45 NNE LAR 25 SW RAP 35 ESE DIK 55 N MOT ...CONT... 90 N CMX 35 NNW VOK 25 NNE IRK 25 NNE JLN 15 WSW DUA 15 WNW BWD 45 ESE P07. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ESE TLH 30 E GAD 25 SSE LEX 15 E FWA 25 ENE MBS. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL THROUGH NRN PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... THE LARGE SCALE UPPER PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH AN UPPER TROUGH PERSISTING OVER THE ERN U.S. AND AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WRN STATES. SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MIGRATE THROUGH THIS PATTERN. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING SEWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY WILL EJECT NEWD THROUGH BASE OF UPPER TROUGH AND INTO THE OH VALLEY AS AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES SEWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE CHARLEY WILL CONTINUE NEWD INTO NEW ENGLAND BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. ...CNTRL AND NRN PLAINS-WRN PARTS OF THE MID AND UPPER MS VALLEY... A COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING SEWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS SUNDAY WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING SWWD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. BY MID AFTERNOON THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM CNTRL ND SWWD THROUGH NW SD AND NE WY. PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SHOULD EXTEND FROM CNTRL ND SWWD THROUGH CNTRL SD...WRN NEB AND NE CO. DOWNSTREAM FROM THESE BOUNDARIES...THE GRADIENT BETWEEN RETREATING SURFACE RIDGE AND LEE TROUGH WILL ESTABLISH A STRONGER SLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OVER THE PLAINS. DESPITE THE INCREASING SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE LIMITED. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOW SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AS FAR S AS TX WITH MID 60S DEWPOINTS REMAINING CONFINED TO S TX. THIS SUGGESTS AT BEST...MID TO UPPER 50S DEWPOINTS CAN BE EXPECTED IN PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS WITH LOW TO MID 50S OVER THE NRN PLAINS BY AFTERNOON SUNDAY. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL DEVELOP EWD DURING THE DAY ABOVE THE MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG...WITH THE STRONGER INSTABILITY EXPECTED OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF THE COLD FRONT AS WELL AS ALONG PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CO AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES DURING THE AFTERNOON. MODERATE NWLY MID-UPPER FLOW ABOVE SLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS WITH PRIMARY THREATS BEING ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL. ACTIVITY MAY EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATE INTO AN MCS AS IT MOVES EWD TOWARD THE MS VALLEY DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH SEVERE THREAT GRADUALLY DECREASING WITH TIME AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES. ...NEW ENGLAND... REMNANTS OF HURRICANE CHARLIE WILL CONTINUE NEWD INTO NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. IT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND BECOME MORE EXTRA TROPICAL AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS AND REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE ERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH AND STRONGER SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL LIKELY PERSIST WITH CHARLIE AS IT CONTINUES NWD. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY AND OVERALL SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED BY WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND STABLE ONSHORE FLOW. ...SERN U.S.... SCATTERED STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS PARTS OF GA AND SC DURING THE AFTERNOON. THOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH WITH LOW 70S SURFACE DEWPOINTS...OVERALL INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED BY MODEST LAPSE RATES WITH MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG EXPECTED. LOW LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK. HOWEVER...SUFFICIENT FLOW WILL EXIST ON SRN PERIPHERY OF UPPER TROUGH TO SUPPORT 30-35 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR. ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLY HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. GIVEN WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW/CONVERGENCE AS WELL AS WEAK MID/UPPER FORCING FOR ASCENT...OVERALL SEVERE THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT MORE THAN LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME. ..DIAL.. 08/14/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 15 06:52:51 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 15 Aug 2004 01:52:51 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200408150652.i7F6qJV07447@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 150650 SWODY2 SPC AC 150649 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0149 AM CDT SUN AUG 15 2004 VALID 161200Z - 171200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE CZZ 30 ESE DAG 25 SSE BIH 10 WNW TVL 35 ESE LMT 70 ENE BLI ...CONT... 45 NNE FCA 40 W 3HT 35 WNW REJ 40 SSW ABR 55 WSW AXN 10 E RRT ...CONT... 40 NNE MTC 20 SSW MDH 30 WNW LIT 55 NE ABI 35 SSE P07. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE AQQ TOI 25 W RMG 50 NW HSS 35 W EKN 25 S ROC 35 NNW GFL 15 WSW PWM. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL FLATTEN MONDAY AS TROUGH AXIS BROADENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A SURFACE COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT WILL MOVE EWD INTO THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY AND SLOWLY SWD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN WAKE OF FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE NRN PLAINS DURING THE DAY 1 PERIOD. ...WRN GREAT LAKES/NRN MS RIVER VALLEY... MODELS SIMILAR IN DEVELOPING A MCS OVER THIS REGION EARLY MONDAY MORNING WHICH MAY CONTINUE EWD INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES BEFORE WEAKENING BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THOUGH NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THIS AREA...EFFECTS OF MORNING CONVECTION RAISE TOO MANY QUESTIONS TO WARRANT SLIGHT RISK ATTM. AIR MASS MIGHT BE TOO STABILIZED TO SUPPORT RENEWED VIGOROUS CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON NEAR THE PRIMARY SURFACE WIND SHIFT...AS INDICATED BY ETA WHICH DEVELOPS NO QPF DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP FORECAST OF LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES DUE TO POTENTIAL FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WITH ELEVATED MCS EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND MORE CONDITIONAL THREAT OF AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT. ...CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... LAPSE RATES REMAIN STEEP OVER THIS REGION...WITH GRADUAL MOISTENING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS AHEAD OF APPROACHING SURFACE FRONT/WIND SHIFT. THOUGH SHEAR IS MARGINAL...AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STEEP LAPSE RATES SUGGEST A FEW STRONGER STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL/WIND AS THEY MOVE OFF HIGHER TERRAIN AND/OR DEVELOP NEAR SURFACE FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ..EVANS.. 08/15/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 15 17:36:49 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 15 Aug 2004 12:36:49 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200408151736.i7FHaJV29235@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 151734 SWODY2 SPC AC 151733 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1233 PM CDT SUN AUG 15 2004 VALID 161200Z - 171200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNE FCA 15 NNE 4BQ 25 S RAP 50 NNE BUB 20 S FSD 45 ESE RRT ...CONT... 30 S OSC 20 N AZO 10 SSW POF 40 NNW BGS 35 SW P07 ...CONT... 25 NNW YUM 55 WSW EED 15 NW DRA 40 SE BIH 40 WNW BIH 20 NNW NFL 40 ESE MHS 25 NNE MFR 30 ENE BLI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW PFN 20 NNW ABY 15 W RMG 50 NW HSS 15 SW SSU 20 NNE ROC 10 W MSS 15 NE EFK 15 S PSM. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... STRONG MID-LEVEL LOW / VORT MAX -- NOW MOVING SSEWD TOWARD ND -- IS FORECAST TO BE SITUATED ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY REGION AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT EXTENDING FROM MN SWWD INTO NERN CO IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY SEWD THROUGH THE PERIOD AS MID-LEVEL LOW WEAKENS / CROSSES THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH 17/12Z. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM NRN LK MI WSWWD ACROSS IA INTO SERN NEB / NRN KS / ERN CO. OTHERWISE...LARGE-SCALE MID-LEVEL PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE...WITH A RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND A BROAD / LOW-AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL AND ERN CONUS. ...UPPER MS VALLEY SWWD ACROSS THE MIDDLE MO VALLEY... MID-LEVEL VORT MAX AND ASSOCIATED 30 TO 40 KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK MOVING SEWD / ESEWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS / UPPER LAKES WILL BE A FOCUS FOR A LOW-END SEVERE STORM THREAT THIS PERIOD. CLUSTER OF PRIMARILY ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING FROM IA NEWD INTO PARTS OF MN / WI AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE / WITHIN ZONE OF LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH LOW-LEVEL JET. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY AS UPPER FEATURE SHIFTS ESEWD. HOWEVER...MARGINAL INSTABILITY ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE DAY DOWNSTREAM OF THIS CLUSTER SUGGESTS ONLY A LOW-PROBABILITY THREAT FOR MARGINAL HAIL WITH A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS. BEHIND THIS CONVECTIVE CLUSTER / ALONG SURFACE BOUNDARY...ETA SUGGESTS THAT AIRMASS MAY DESTABILIZE WITH 1000 TO 2000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE INDICATED BY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ETA FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THIS REGION REVEAL ARTIFICIAL STEEPENING OF LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES BY ACTIVE SHALLOW CONVECTIVE PARAMETERIZATION. IT APPEARS THAT MORE LIKELY SCENARIO WILL BE THAT ANY DESTABILIZATION OF CONVECTIVELY-CONTAMINATED AIRMASS SHOULD QUICKLY RESULT IN NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT -- AND THUS LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF APPRECIABLE INSTABILITY. ALTHOUGH DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD WOULD SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION / SEVERE THREAT...WILL MAINTAIN ONLY LOW-PROBABILITY SEVERE THREAT GIVEN FORECAST FOR PERSISTENT CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED LACK OF POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION. SOMEWHAT GREATER THREAT MAY EXIST ALONG SRN FRINGES OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE CLUSTER WHERE AIRMASS COULD POTENTIALLY BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE UNSTABLE. HOWEVER...SHEAR DECREASES WITH SWD EXTENT AND THUS ATTM EXPECT SEVERE THREAT TO REMAIN BELOW SLIGHT RISK THRESHOLDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. ...ERN WY / SWRN SD NERN CO EWD INTO NEB... UPSLOPE FLOW RESULTING FROM SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW JUST N OF SAGGING SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY PROVIDE SUFFICIENT UVV FOR STORM INITIATION OVER ERN WY AND PERHAPS NERN CO...WHERE AIRMASS SHOULD BECOME MARGINALLY UNSTABLE BY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT MAY ALSO OCCUR EWD ACROSS NEB WITHIN WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG SURFACE BOUNDARY -- TO THE SW OF ONGOING CONVECTION OVER IA / MN / WI -- WHERE SOMEWHAT GREATER INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP. FORECAST 20 TO 25 KT MID-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR WEAK UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION AND ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS / MARGINAL HAIL. ALTHOUGH SOMEWHAT GREATER DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD EXIST OVER THE HIGH PLAINS DUE TO SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW...WEAKER INSTABILITY ACROSS THIS REGION SHOULD OFFSET MORE FAVORABLE WIND FIELD. OVERALL RESULT SHOULD BE A GENERALLY LOW-PROBABILITY THREAT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. ..GOSS.. 08/15/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 16 07:22:31 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 16 Aug 2004 02:22:31 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200408160722.i7G7M5V02903@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 160719 SWODY2 SPC AC 160718 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0218 AM CDT MON AUG 16 2004 VALID 171200Z - 181200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SE VIH 45 ENE CNU 25 SSW FLV 40 ENE IRK 45 ESE DBQ 40 NNW CGX 10 W SBN 10 N IND 40 S HUF 55 SE VIH. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNE CYS 65 WNW CDR 50 SSW PHP 40 SSW ANW 25 ESE LBF 40 SSE AKO 20 ENE DEN 35 NNE CYS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSE MOB 20 NNW LGC 40 WSW CSV 35 SE POF 30 SW JLN 15 NW END 65 ENE AMA 40 NNW BGS 15 SSW P07 ...CONT... 60 SSW GBN 25 NE BLH 30 WNW BIH 40 S SVE 50 SSE RDM 60 NW 4OM ...CONT... 100 NW FCA 45 NE MSO 25 ENE LVM 35 SW 4BQ 10 N PHP 15 NNW FSD 30 SSW STC 30 ESE BJI 35 W GFK 55 NNW MOT ...CONT... 50 W ART 20 ESE ERI 20 NNW LBE 30 ESE NEL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN GREAT LAKES ACROSS THE LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PART OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... BROAD TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE ERN U.S...WITH A SERIES OF LOW AMPLITUDE SYSTEMS SHIFTING ESEWD AWAY FROM WRN U.S. RIDGE AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE MID WEST MONDAY. SEVERAL OTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND THE ROCKIES AS THEY DRIFT SLOWLY EWD. AT THE SURFACE ...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EWD INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES AND MID MS RIVER VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON. WRN END OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL STALL IN A NWWD ORIENTATION INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN IN THE LOW LEVELS AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...SUGGESTING POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE LENGTH OF THE FRONT. ...SRN GREAT LAKES ACROSS THE LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY... MODELS IN AGREEMENT IN MAINTAINING ELEVATED CONVECTION INTO THE NRN/MID MS RIVER VALLEY AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING AND ALLOW SUFFICIENT HEATING INTO THE SRN GREAT LAKES FOR MODERATE MLCAPES BY THE MID AFTERNOON AHEAD OF APPROACHING SURFACE FRONT. IN ADDITION...ASCENT WILL BE AIDED BY FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE WRN GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE DAY. CAPE/SHEAR ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW ORGANIZED CLUSTER/LINES WITH ATTENDANT THREATS OF LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS INTO THE MID EVENING. ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... SECOND AREA OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO FORM WITHIN UPSLOPE REGIME NEAR STALLED SURFACE FRONT INTO NERN CO/WRN NEB/SERN WY. APPEARS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR MARGINAL TO MODERATE MLCAPES DURING THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STEEP LAPSE RATES AND 35-40 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL FAVOR DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SUPERCELLS/MULTICELL CLUSTERS BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE ORGANIZED/ELEVATED AND SHIFT EWD INTO CENTRAL NEB AS AIR MASS DECOUPLES AND SLY LLJ INCREASES DURING THE MID TO LATE EVENING. LARGE HAIL WILL BE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WITH ACTIVITY OVER THIS REGION. ...NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION INTO THE NRN ROCKIES... APPEARS WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY FOCUS VIGOROUS CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THIS REGION TUESDAY. THOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STORM-SCALE ORGANIZATION WILL BE WEAK...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT CAPE WILL REMAIN PRESENT FOR BRIEF-LIVED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ..EVANS.. 08/16/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 16 17:34:42 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 16 Aug 2004 12:34:42 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200408161734.i7GHYeV06954@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 161731 SWODY2 SPC AC 161729 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1229 PM CDT MON AUG 16 2004 VALID 171200Z - 181200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSW STL 25 NNW TBN 25 S SZL 30 WSW SZL 35 E MKC 30 SSW IRK 40 ENE IRK 25 ESE CID 15 WNW DBQ 15 W MSN 35 WNW MKE 45 ESE MKE 20 NNW AZO 30 S AZO 45 NNE LAF 25 SE DNV 40 S MTO 60 SSW STL. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE DGW CDR 20 ENE VTN 55 NNE BUB 20 NE BUB 10 ESE BBW 25 SE LBF 10 W IML 10 NNE AKO 40 NE DEN 25 WSW CYS 40 ESE DGW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 E 7R4 45 NNW PNS 30 E GAD 35 W SHD 25 SE PSB 15 WNW ELM 15 W UCA 30 N POU 15 W ISP ...CONT... 55 N ROC BUF 20 NE CLE 15 ESE BWG 30 ESE PAH 30 N POF 30 SW JLN 45 N DDC 40 W EHA 45 ESE TCC 10 NW DRT ...CONT... 75 SW GBN 25 NE BLH 30 WNW BIH 40 S SVE 50 SSE RDM 55 NW 4OM ...CONT... 70 NW FCA 35 E HLN 60 N SHR 45 SSW REJ 15 NNW PHP 10 W BKX 20 W MKT 30 WNW LSE 30 SE CWA 25 NW ESC 115 NNW ANJ ...CONT... 125 NNE CMX 65 WNW CMX 15 S HIB 45 WSW BJI 50 SW GFK 50 W DVL 55 NNW MOT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID WEST FROM MO TO IL/NWRN IND... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS INCLUDING WRN WY/NERN CO AND WRN NEB... ...SYNOPSIS... CYCLONIC MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE NRN STATES ON TUESDAY AS A DEEP POLAR VORTEX DEVELOPS OVER NCNTRL CANADA. A WEAK SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN MODEST WNWLY MID LEVEL FLOW...AND CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...WILL MAINTAIN AN AXIS OF ASCENT ALONG RESIDUAL FRONT FROM IA/MO NEWD TO MI. THE TRAILING PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL EXTEND WWD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS AND INTERSECT LEE TROUGH INVOF WRN NEB/ERN WY. WELL DEFINED UPPER VORTEX MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE MAY ENHANCE LIFT ALONG THE LEE TROUGH/FRONT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS FROM LATER AFTERNOON INTO THE NIGHT. ...MIDWEST... A BAND OF ELEVATED TSTMS MAY BE ONGOING EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITHIN WARM CONVEYOR BELT FROM ERN IA/MO TO MI. STRONG INSTABILITY IS FCST TO DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE MORNING CONVECTION WITH MLCAPE CLIMBING TO BETWEEN 1500-2500 J/KG ACROSS THE CORN BELT. WHILE OVERALL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL WAVE ACROSS THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK...CONVERGENCE/LIFT ALONG THE RESIDUAL FRONTAL ZONE/WIND SHIFT COUPLED WITH WEAK CAP SHOULD SUPPORT ISOLD TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT. MID LEVEL FLOW AROUND 30KT ATOP WEAKER SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEAR FOR STORM ORGANIZATION AND PERSISTENCE. A FEW LINES/BANDS OF STORMS WITH A COUPLE OF SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM ERN IA INTO NRN IL FROM AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THESE STORMS. STORM INITIATION ALONG THE TRAILING PORTION OF THE FRONT INTO MO IS A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN. WEAKER SHEAR AND FORCING...BUT STRONGER INSTABILITY THIS AREA...INDICATES A CHANCE OF ISOLD STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. ...HIGH PLAINS... LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH EWD MOVING UPPER WAVE...COUPLED WITH DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN...SHOULD PROMOTE NUMEROUS TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES EAST TO THE PLAINS. GREATEST INSTABILITY AND FORCING SHOULD BE FOCUSED NEAR LEE TROUGH/FRONT INTERSECTION ACROSS SERN WY INTO NEB PNHDL. STORMS WILL DEVELOP EAST OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN INTO THIS ENVIRONMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH A FEW SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE. LARGE HAIL AND A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. CONVECTION MAY EVOLVE INTO SMALL MCS BY LATE EVENING AND DEVELOP EAST ACROSS NEB WITH INFLOW BEING MAINTAINED BY INTENSIFYING LLJ. ..CARBIN.. 08/16/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 17 07:28:34 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 17 Aug 2004 02:28:34 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200408170728.i7H7SeV01591@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 170726 SWODY2 SPC AC 170724 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0224 AM CDT TUE AUG 17 2004 VALID 181200Z - 191200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW MCW 25 NW GRB 20 E TVC 30 NNE LAN 45 NE LAF 25 SE TOP 35 WSW BIE 30 ESE OLU 25 WNW MCW. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM WAL 35 W DCA 40 SW IPT 15 ENE BGM 40 NNW POU 10 E ISP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE DHN 10 NE MCN 40 NW AND 10 WNW BLF 15 ESE HTS 15 SSW LEX 15 NW PAH 10 NNW JLN 35 S PNC 10 SSE FSI 30 NNW CLL 40 WNW GPT 10 SE DHN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S FHU 35 NE PHX 45 SW P38 15 WNW LOL 30 NNE LMT 20 W DLS 55 NW 4OM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNE CTB 10 NNE LWT 15 WSW SHR 35 SSE RAP 55 E ATY 30 NE AXN 70 W RRT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES INTO ERN PART OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE OVER THE DAY 2 PERIOD...AS MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED NEAR THE HUDSON BAY AND LARGE UPPER RIDGE ERODES OVER THE WRN STATES. NET RESULT WILL BE BROAD WNWLY FLOW ALOFT FROM THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHEAST...WITH A SERIES OF FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PROGRESSING EWD. SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND SWD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE DAY...AHEAD OF WHICH A RATHER MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE IN PLACE. ...GREAT LAKES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS... CONVECTION...POSSIBLY IN THE FORM OF ONE OR TWO SMALL MCSS...WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING OVER THE NRN MS AND MID MO RIVER VALLEYS WEDNESDAY MORNING. NRN MCS WILL LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES AND LIMIT INSTABILITY OVER THIS REGION. HOWEVER...FARTHER SOUTHWEST AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT INTO THE SRN GREAT LAKES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE SHEAR WILL STRENGTHEN WEDNESDAY WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR FROM 35-45 KT /MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHOES/ AS STORMS INITIATE AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT OR NEAR OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER STORMS. A FEW TORNADOES ALSO APPEAR POSSIBLE GIVEN SHAPE OF HODOGRAPHS AND STRENGTH OF LOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR. MOST LIKELY AREA FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO EXTEND FROM SRN WI INTO CENTRAL/ERN IA WHERE COMBINATION OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ARE FORECAST TO BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...SHOULD AIR MASS DESTABILIZE AS EXPECTED IN WAKE OF ANY EARLIER CONVECTION. FARTHER SOUTHWEST...ETA AND ETAKF SUGGEST ENTIRE FRONT ACROSS SRN NEB/NRN KS INTO ERN CO BECOMES CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. GIVEN EXPECTED INSTABILITY...A FEW STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. HOWEVER...SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED DUE TO WEAK SHEAR AND WILL OPT TO FORECAST ONLY LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES ATTM. ...MID ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST... MODELS CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE THE MID ATLANTIC INTO SERN NY DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPES FROM 1000-2000 J/KG...AS SURFACE DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. IN ADDITION...WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND WILL LIKELY SUPPORT SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE MODERATE /I.E. 25-35 KT FROM 0-6 KM/...SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR SMALL LINES OR SUPERCELLS. PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ..EVANS.. 08/17/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 17 17:38:00 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 17 Aug 2004 12:38:00 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200408171737.i7HHbfL08815@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 171735 SWODY2 SPC AC 171734 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1234 PM CDT TUE AUG 17 2004 VALID 181200Z - 191200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E TOL 30 NNW DNV 15 NNE IRK 45 ESE OMA 60 NNE OMA 10 SE MKT 30 S IWD 20 NNW MQT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW PFN 25 WSW MCN 45 W CAE CLT 30 NNE AVL 20 S TYS 45 ENE HSV 15 WSW MSL 35 SSE MKL 30 SSW DYR 40 SSE CGI 15 SSW OWB 20 N SDF 10 SE IND 30 NW HUF 40 NW STL 45 S SZL 15 NE BVO 50 S PNC 40 NNE MWL 25 NNW ACT 15 SSE TPL 45 SSE CLL 30 ENE GLS ...CONT... 50 WSW FHU 20 ENE PHX 35 NNE IGM 45 NE DRA 60 ESE BIH 30 SW BIH 55 NE MER 60 SSW SVE 15 ESE MHS 10 S LMT 25 E 4LW 50 SSE BNO 55 NNE BNO 45 ESE YKM 30 NNE SEA 20 NE BLI ...CONT... 30 N CTB 45 W LWT 40 SE SHR 40 NNW CDR 55 N ATY 30 SE FAR 10 WNW RRT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND WRN/NRN GREAT LAKES... ...SYNOPSIS... STRONG HEIGHT FALL CENTER...CURRENTLY DEVELOPING SOUTH OVER NRN ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTH ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES TONIGHT AND RESULT IN ESTABLISHING STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. ACCOMPANYING THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE A STRONG POLAR FRONT WHICH WILL SWEEP EAST AND SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO THE ERN GREAT LAKES DURING THE PERIOD. WHILE STRONGEST HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP PRIMARILY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...ASCENT ALONG THE TRAILING PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS TO FRONT RANGE SHOULD BE ENHANCED AS REMNANTS OF GREAT BASIN UPPER LOW MOVE EAST FROM THE ROCKIES. A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH PRECEEDING THE POLAR FRONT...AND CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST...WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN WHILE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. ...IA TO UPPER GREAT LAKES... MODEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT ON INCREASING SWLY LOW LEVEL/PREFRONTAL FLOW FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK TO LOCALLY MODERATE INSTABILITY FROM IA TO WI BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. AS THIS INSTABILITY IS REALIZED... STRONG ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEPENING TROUGH AND LINEAR FORCING ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN EXTENSIVE SQUALL LINE EARLY IN THE PERIOD. INCREASINGLY STRONG TROPOSPHERIC FLOW AND RAPID TRANSLATIONAL SPEED OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SUPPORT A FAST MOVING LINE WITH BOWING SEGMENTS PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS FROM IA/WI AREAS EAST INTO NRN IL AND ACROSS MUCH OF MI THROUGH THE LATE EVENING. IF IT APPEARS THAT STRONGER INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...PARTS OF THE REGION MAY REQUIRE AN UPGRADE TO HIGHER SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES IN LATER OUTLOOKS. ...CNTRL/HIGH PLAINS... FRONTAL SURGE WILL SPREAD SOUTH INTO THE HIGH PLAINS AND FRONT RANGE OF CO...AND BISECT KS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...BY EVENING. FRONTAL CIRCULATION AND UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE PRESENCE OF WEAKLY CAPPED AND MODESTLY MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL PROMOTE TSTM DEVELOP OVER THESE AREAS. WHILE A FEW DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL MAY OCCUR WITH THIS CONVECTION...THE BULK OF THESE STORMS WILL BE OCCURRING WITHIN A WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT AND OVERALL SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LIMITED AT THIS TIME. ...MID ATLANTIC... WEAKENING LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH WILL CROSS MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD DURING TIME OF MAXIMUM DIURNAL HEATING. WHILE A FEW PULSE/MULTICELL STORMS ARE POSSIBLE... WEAKENING MID LEVEL FLOW AND SLIGHT HEIGHT RISES ACROSS THE REGION SUGGEST SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED. ..CARBIN.. 08/17/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 18 07:29:41 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 18 Aug 2004 02:29:41 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200408180729.i7I7TSL23743@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 180727 SWODY2 SPC AC 180726 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0226 AM CDT WED AUG 18 2004 VALID 191200Z - 201200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW ACY 30 S CXY 20 SSW IPT 35 SSE UCA 20 ESE GFL 20 ESE EEN GON. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N HVR 40 NNE GCC 40 SSW PIR 35 SSW 9V9 30 SSW ANW 15 WNW AKO 15 ESE GLD 35 WSW FNB 25 SSW BRL 45 S CGX 30 NE MTC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSE DMN 35 SSE SAD 45 WSW PRC 60 NE NID 45 NE SAC 45 NNE LMT 25 NE DLS 50 ENE BLI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE ABY 20 NNW GSP 25 S 5I3 30 E LEX 30 N PAH JBR 40 W GLH 35 SSW JAN 35 NNW PNS 25 NE ABY. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY WILL REMAIN DOMINANT AND WILL MAINTAIN UNSEASONABLY STRONG WLY FLOW FROM THE NRN PLAINS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. THURSDAY. ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING QUICKLY ESEWD ACROSS MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND AND INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WRN PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY AND CENTRAL PLAINS AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO FLOW ALOFT. IN ADDITION...A SLOW MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SPREAD EWD OUT OF THE SRN ROCKIES AND FOCUS WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. ...MID ATLANTIC INTO PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND... FORECAST OF RATHER STRONG HEATING /85-90F SFC TEMPS/ WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT OVER PORTIONS OF THIS REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WHERE SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. THEREFORE...AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY APPEARS LIKELY WITH 1000+ J/KG MLCAPES AS FAR NORTHEAST AS ERN NEW YORK...DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF MARGINAL LAPSE RATES. THIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL NY/PA AND CONTINUE EWD TOWARDS THE COAST THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. COMBINATION OF SURFACE COLD FRONT AND MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL LIKELY AID IN ORGANIZING CONVECTION INTO SMALL LINES/BOW ECHOES. THOUGH MARGINAL LAPSE RATES AND WBZ LEVELS ABOVE 11 KFT WILL LIMIT HAIL SIZE...WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL AND POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO APPEAR SUFFICIENT FOR A SLIGHT RISK DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ...SRN PLAINS INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY... CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BECOME WIDESPREAD AND POSSIBLY DEVELOP INTO ONE OR MORE MCSS OVER THIS AREA DURING THE PERIOD AHEAD OF SLOW MOVING UPPER SYSTEM. DESPITE THE MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS EXPECTED OVER THE REGION...SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE TOO WEAK FOR MORE THAN BRIEF-LIVED GUSTS/HAIL AROUND SEVERE LIMITS. SAME GOES FOR THE OH RIVER VALLEY WHERE SURFACE FRONT MAY FOCUS AREAS OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION...GIVEN DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...SHEAR AND LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN VERY MARGINAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS AND MORE THAN AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT. ..EVANS.. 08/18/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 18 17:42:34 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 18 Aug 2004 12:42:34 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200408181742.i7IHgLL16624@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 181739 SWODY2 SPC AC 181738 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1238 PM CDT WED AUG 18 2004 VALID 191200Z - 201200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSE BWD 40 SSW SJT 50 ENE FST 30 WSW MAF 45 ENE HOB 10 NW LBB 35 ENE PVW 30 W SPS 20 NNW MWL 15 SSE SEP 55 SSE BWD. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE JFK 25 SSW CXY 25 W MGW CMH 15 S MFD 15 WSW YNG 20 SE BGM 10 ESE LEB 30 WSW AUG 25 SSE AUG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WNW CTY 40 N SAV 10 NE CAE 15 ESE AVL 35 NE TYS 35 WNW JKL 50 WNW SDF 35 W MDH 35 NNW ARG 20 S GWO 10 WNW LUL 25 WSW PNS ...CONT... 20 ESE CRP 55 NW LRD ...CONT... 75 SSW P07 15 NNE ELP 30 N DUG 20 WNW PHX 25 E LAS 40 E NID 45 SSW TVL 35 W SVE 60 NE MFR 55 W YKM 30 NE BLI ...CONT... 55 ENE CTB 20 N SHR 45 NE DGW 15 W AIA 20 WSW MCK 25 S HSI 35 N OTM 20 NW AZO 50 NNE MTC. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE NORTHEAST... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER WEST TX... ...SYNOPSIS... FAST MOVING AND DEEP SHORT WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT WILL LIFT NEWD ACROSS SRN QUEBEC ON THURSDAY. IN RESPONSE TO THIS IMPULSE A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND OFFSHORE WITH THE WRN EXTENSION OF THIS FRONT BECOMING QUASISTATIONARY FROM NJ WWD TO THE MIDWEST. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH FROM CANADA INTO THE NRN PLAINS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND BRING A REINFORCING MASS OF UNUSUALLY COLD AIR TO THE NRN BORDER STATES. FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST...THE TRAILING PORTION OF THE FIRST FRONTAL ZONE WILL SINK SOUTH INTO BROAD AND INCREASINGLY MOIST ZONE OF CONFLUENT LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS/TX PNHDL ENEWD TO MO. MEANWHILE...A LARGE AGGREGATE UPPER TROUGH WILL EVOLVE FROM NUMEROUS SRN AND MIDDLE STREAM IMPULSES MOVING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES. WHILE MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFERS IN SUBTLE WAYS WITH THIS SYSTEM... MODEST TO STRONG SUPPORT FOR WIDESPREAD UPWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EAST/NORTHEAST ATOP THE STALLED FRONTAL ZONE OVER THE SRN PLAINS. ...OH/PA TO SRN NEW ENGLAND... DESPITE RELATIVELY WEAK LOW THROUGH MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AIRMASS SHOULD BECOME AT LEAST WEAKLY UNSTABLE WITH DIURNAL HEATING. FURTHERMORE...CONVECTION ALONG THE SHARP BOUNDARY SHOULD BE MAINTAINED BY SHALLOW MAUL LAYER ASSOCIATED WITH NARROW BAND OF FOCUSED UPWARD MOTION. BROKEN SQUALL LINE COINCIDENT WITH INCREASINGLY STRONG LOW THROUGH MID LEVEL WLY FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW WELL-ORGANIZED STORM CLUSTERS WITH BOWING LINE SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS. WITH STRONGEST LARGE SCALE SUPPORT FOR DEEP FRONTAL CIRCULATION MOVING ACROSS CANADA WITH THE UPPER SHORT WAVE...SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO SEVERE POTENTIAL EXISTS WITH WWD EXTENT ALONG THE FRONT. AIRMASS ACROSS WRN PA TO ERN OH WILL BECOME STRONGLY UNSTABLE BY LATE AFTERNOON AND IT APPEARS THAT A FEW INTENSE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THESE AREAS AS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY PERSISTS. ...WEST TX... MODEST AND PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL SLY FLOW AHEAD OF DIGGING UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT RICH MOISTURE NWD ACROSS WEST TX. STRONG INSTABILITY IS ANTICIPATED AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND FRONT BY AFTERNOON. GIVEN FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE SUPPORT FOR UPWARD MOTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION COUPLED WITH DRYLINE AND FRONTAL SURGES ACROSS PARTS OF WEST TX AND THE PNHDL...NUMEROUS TSTMS ARE LIKELY. FCST WIND PROFILES ARE ONLY MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS BUT POCKETS OF GREATER SHEAR ARE POSSIBLE AS WLY MID LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS THROUGH EVENING. EXPECT ONE OR TWO CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION WITH ATTENDANT HAIL AND WIND THREAT. ..CARBIN.. 08/18/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 19 07:30:40 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 19 Aug 2004 02:30:40 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200408190730.i7J7UTL21087@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 190728 SWODY2 SPC AC 190726 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0226 AM CDT THU AUG 19 2004 VALID 201200Z - 211200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE P07 20 SW FST 40 WNW HOB 45 SE CVS 35 WNW ABI 30 NW TPL 20 NE AUS 15 ESE SAT 15 SE DRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NW GGW 45 NNE BIL 25 WNW GCC 25 NNW CDR 30 SW MHN 25 E IML 55 S GLD 30 S EHA 35 NNE CDS 30 SSW OKC 25 WNW TUL 30 S EMP 25 SSE FNB 20 WSW OTM 15 NNW CGX 65 SE OSC ...CONT... 60 WNW 3B1 10 SW BHB ...CONT... 30 SW PSX 35 NW LRD ...CONT... 70 SW GDP 30 NNE ELP 85 WNW TCS 25 NW PRC 40 NNW NID 45 SSE TVL 40 SSW 4LW 45 W PDT 40 NNW 63S. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SWRN INTO CENTRAL TX... ...SWRN TX... OVERALL SETUP FOR SWRN TX IS SIMILAR TO THURSDAY REGARDING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...AS AREA REMAINS WITHIN MODERATE WNWLY FLOW IN WAKE OF SLOW MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ETA AND GFS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH PLACEMENT OF PRIMARY SURFACE FRONT/WIND SHIFT EXTENDING FROM SERN OK/AR SWWD ACROSS CENTRAL AND INTO SWRN TX FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT LOCATION OF CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS EARLY IN THE PERIOD ASSOCIATED WITH SEVERAL WEAK VORT MAXIMA MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL AFFECT LOCATION OF GREATER INSTABILITY AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE DURING THE AFTERNOON. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS MOST LIKELY REGION FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN OVER SWRN TX INTO THE HILL COUNTRY WHERE COLLOCATION OF STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL OCCUR. SHEAR WILL ALSO BE STRONGER AS WNWLY MID LEVEL FLOW OVERSPREADS DEEP ESELY LOW LEVEL WINDS... SUGGESTING STRONGER STORMS MAY BECOME ORGANIZED INTO SUPERCELLS AND MULTICELL CLUSTERS. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL. ...ERN TX INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY AND NRN MID ATLANTIC... SHOULD SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY DEVELOP...AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM COULD ALSO DEVELOP ALONG SURFACE FRONT FROM CENTRAL/ERN TX INTO THE MID MS/OH RIVER VALLEYS AND THE NRN MID ATLANTIC. WEAKER LAPSE RATES/SHEAR WILL LIKELY LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT OVER THIS REGION. HOWEVER...AFTERNOON HEATING MAY SUPPORT SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES FOR ISOLATE DAMAGING WINDS. ..EVANS.. 08/19/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 19 17:11:00 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 19 Aug 2004 12:11:00 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200408191710.i7JHAqL32456@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 191707 SWODY2 SPC AC 191705 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1205 PM CDT THU AUG 19 2004 VALID 201200Z - 211200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW DRT 30 E FST 40 WNW HOB 45 SE CVS 30 N ABI 30 NNW ACT 35 NE AUS 15 ESE SAT 10 SE DRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SW GDP 30 NNE ELP 85 WNW TCS 25 NW PRC 40 NNW NID 45 SSE TVL 40 NE MFR 45 SSE DLS 40 NNW 63S ...CONT... 70 NW GGW 45 NNE BIL 25 WNW GCC 25 NNW CDR 30 SW MHN 25 E IML 55 S GLD 30 S EHA 35 NNE CDS 30 SSW OKC 25 WNW TUL 30 S EMP 25 SSE FNB 20 WSW OTM 15 NNW CGX 65 SE OSC ...CONT... 60 WNW 3B1 10 SW BHB ...CONT... 30 SW PSX 35 NW LRD. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SWRN AND CNTRL TX... ...SYNOPSIS... BROAD...CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME /ANCHORED BY DEEP LOW INVOF OF HUDSON BAY/ IS FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS THROUGH THE DAY 2 PERIOD. WITHIN THIS PATTERN...SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER N TX THIS MORNING WILL LIFT NEWD FROM MO ACROSS THE OH VALLEY...WHILE SEVERAL WEAK PERTURBATIONS TRANSLATE SEWD THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN W INTO THE CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT /LIKELY EXTENDING FROM NEW ENGLAND SWWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY INTO SWRN TX BY LATE AFTERNOON/ WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT. ...SWRN/CNTRL TX... CO-LOCATION OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES /7-8 C/KM/ ATOP BOUNDARY-LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION ALONG AND S OF COLD FRONT. WITH TIME...CLOUDS SHOULD TEND TO DISSIPATE/MIX OUT IN WAKE OF SYSTEM LIFTING NEWD AWAY FROM REGION...ALLOWING FOR INCREASED INSOLATION WITH AFTERNOON MLCAPES INCREASING TO 1500-2500 J/KG. A SERIES OF WEAK MID-LEVEL PERTURBATIONS APPROACHING FROM THE NW...FRONTAL CONVERGENCE...AS WELL AS POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW...SHOULD ALL CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. STRONGLY VEERING WIND PROFILES INVOF OF FRONTAL ZONE AND RESULTANT 35-40KTS OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS WITH INCIPIENT STORM DEVELOPMENT. EXPECTED ANA-FRONTAL CHARACTER OF BOUNDARY SUGGESTS THAT STORMS WILL EITHER BECOME ELEVATED ABOVE FRONTAL ZONE /WITH INHERENT LARGE HAIL THREAT/ OR EVOLVE INTO FORWARD-PROPAGATING STORM CLUSTERS ALONG FRONTAL ZONE WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. ...OH VALLEY INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND... ISENTROPIC ASCENT INTO ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET STREAK OVER SERN CANADA IN CONJUNCTION WITH FORCING AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING THROUGH THE OH VALLEY SHOULD SUSTAIN LARGE PRECIPITATION SHIELD NEWD ACROSS REGION. RELATIVELY POOR LAPSE RATES /AOB MOIST ADIABATIC/ WILL LARGELY LIMIT DESTABILIZATION OF DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS...HOWEVER MOIST BOUNDARY-LAYER /I.E. DEWPOINTS OF 65-70F/ WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES APPROACHING 1000-1500 J/KG. INSPECTION OF FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS THAT ETA BMJ INSTABILITY FORECASTS MAY BE TOO HIGH OWING TO ACTIVE SHALLOW CONVECTION SCHEME. NONETHELESS...POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER EPISODES /NAMELY DAMAGING WINDS/ WILL EXIST ALONG FRONTAL ZONE WITHIN MODERATELY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THIS IS ESPECIALLY THE CASE AHEAD OF MIGRATORY LOW ATTENDANT TO MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH WILL DEVELOP NEWD ALONG FRONTAL ZONE...AS WELL ANY DOWNSTREAM LOCATIONS THAT MAY LOCALLY EXPERIENCE STRONGER DAYTIME HEATING AND RESULTANT HIGHER INSTABILITY. POOR LAPSE RATES/LIMITED INSTABILITY AS A RESULT OF EXPECTED WIDESPREAD CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION PRECLUDES CATEGORICAL RISK ATTM. DAY 1 UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK MAY WELL BE REQUIRED OVER PORTIONS OF DISCUSSION AREA ONCE FINER-SCALE DETAILS BECOME MORE CLEAR. ..MEAD.. 08/19/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 20 07:15:31 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 20 Aug 2004 02:15:31 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200408200716.i7K7GSL01796@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 200710 SWODY2 SPC AC 200709 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0209 AM CDT FRI AUG 20 2004 VALID 211200Z - 221200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NE CTB 35 W LWT 40 N WRL 20 SSE CPR 30 SW BFF 40 WNW MHN 30 N LBF 25 WNW GAG 10 ENE CSM 10 NE MLC 70 ESE HRO 15 ESE CKV 25 ESE AOO 30 W ALB 30 WNW EFK ...CONT... 15 ESE PSX 20 SE DRT ...CONT... 65 WNW MRF 45 NW GDP 65 NNW SVC 25 ENE PRC 55 WSW LAS 60 ENE MER 20 SE MHS 30 SSW ONP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 NE MQT 25 S RHI 35 NE MCW 10 NE FSD 15 ESE PIR 50 WNW Y22 70 NNE OLF. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...NRN PLAINS INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES... MODELS IN AGREEMENT IN MOVING FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ESEWD ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES SATURDAY...THOUGH THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PLACEMENT. ETA...ETAKF AND SHORT-RANGE ENSEMBLE MEAN ALL DEEPEN A SURFACE LOW OVER N-CENTRAL ND WHICH TRACKS EWD INTO NRN/CENTRAL MN OVERNIGHT...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE LOW NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. HOWEVER...THERE IS AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING A SURFACE TROUGH FROM THE LOW CENTER INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE ACROSS THE NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO THIS SYSTEM AS SLY 50+ KT H85 JET DEVELOPS INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL ALSO AID IN MOISTURE TRANSPORT WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS POSSIBLY REACHING 50F NEAR LOW CENTER BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. THE INCREASE IN LARGE SCALE ASCENT/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...COMBINED WITH STRONG HEATING ALONG AND WEST OF SURFACE TROUGH...MAY WEAKEN CAPPING AND ALLOW A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY. STRENGTH OF SHEAR WARRANTS AT LEAST MENTION OF A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE QUALITY/AMOUNT REMAINS QUESTIONABLE AND LIMITS CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPING SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT VIGOROUS MOIST CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON. IT IS MORE LIKELY THAT CONVECTION WILL INCREASING WITHIN LOW LEVEL WAA REGIME AFTER DARK. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN MEAGER AND LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT. GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES ABOUT SURFACE LOW PLACEMENT AND AVAILABLE INSTABILITY...WILL ONLY FORECAST LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES ATTM. ...CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS... LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STEEP ACROSS THIS REGION AS STRONG AFTERNOON HEATING OCCURS...WITH MLCAPES LIKELY AROUND 1500 J/KG. WEAK IMPULSES ALOFT MAY SHIFT SEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES DURING THE DAY AND AID IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE LEE TROUGH. IN ADDITION...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN MODEST /I.E. 20-30 KT/ AS WNWLY MID LEVEL WINDS OVERSPREAD SSELY UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW. THIS MAY ALLOW A FEW CLUSTERS TO FORM AND SUSTAIN AT LEAST A LOW PROBABILITY THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS ACTIVITY MOVES ESEWD THROUGH THE EVENING. ...NRN MID ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND COAST... MODELS CONSISTENT IN MOVING SURFACE COLD FRONT OFF THE COAST BY THE EARLY EVENING. REGION MAY REMAIN RATHER CLOUDY DUE TO PERSISTENT CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS WILL SUPPORT A THREAT OF ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON SHOULD POCKETS OF HEATING OCCUR. ..EVANS.. 08/20/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 20 17:18:38 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 20 Aug 2004 12:18:38 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200408201718.i7KHIZL18414@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 201716 SWODY2 SPC AC 201714 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1214 PM CDT FRI AUG 20 2004 VALID 211200Z - 221200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NE CTB 35 W LWT 40 N WRL 20 SSE CPR 30 SW BFF 35 ESE AIA 35 E IML 25 WNW GAG 10 ENE CSM 10 NE MLC 70 ESE HRO 15 ESE CKV 25 ESE AOO 30 W ALB 30 WNW EFK ...CONT... 15 ESE PSX 20 SE DRT ...CONT... 65 WNW MRF 45 NW GDP 65 NNW SVC 25 ENE PRC 55 WSW LAS 60 ENE MER 20 SE MHS 30 SSW ONP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 NE MQT 25 S RHI 30 S MCW SUX 35 WSW 9V9 50 WNW Y22 50 N GGW. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...NRN HIGH PLAINS INTO WRN GREAT LAKES... SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING ONTO THE SWRN BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY TRANSLATE SEWD...REACHING THE NRN HIGH PLAINS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND WRN GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY MORNING. ATTENDANT SURFACE CYCLONE INITIALLY FORMING IN THE LEE OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES WILL DEEPEN AS IT CONCURRENTLY DEVELOPS SEWD ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. MEANWHILE...TRAILING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP SEWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THOUGH A PLUME OF STEEP LOW- TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7.5-8.5 C/KM WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE REGION...IT APPEARS THAT THE LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT THE DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION /I.E. SBCAPES AOB 300-400 J/KG/ ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. NONETHELESS...DEEPLY-MIXED CHARACTER OF BOUNDARY-LAYER OBSERVED IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT DOES SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP. STRENGTHENING SWLY LLJ ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY SHOULD SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN NOCTURNAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT SATURDAY NIGHT FROM ERN SD ACROSS MN INTO PARTS OF WI. HOWEVER...LACK OF QUALITY LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT INSTABILITY AND OVERALL SEVERE THREAT. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF SYNOPTIC SYSTEM...DEGREE OF MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE MONITORED. A SLIGHT RISK MAY BE REQUIRED ON SUBSEQUENT DAY 1 OUTLOOKS IF IT BECOMES APPARENT THAT GREATER INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP THAN IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED. ...CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS... LEE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SHARPEN SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING SURFACE LOW ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER. INCREASING SLY/SELY SURFACE WINDS E OF THIS FEATURE WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE BENEATH RATHER STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7-8 C/KM. WHEN COUPLED WITH STRONG DAYTIME HEATING...EXPECT AIRMASS TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES INCREASING TO 1000-2000 J/KG. SUSTAINED CONVERGENCE ALONG LEE TROUGH SHOULD LEAD TO A GRADUAL EROSION OF CAP AND SUBSEQUENT INCREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE ACROSS PARTS OF ERN CO/WRN KS SWD INTO ERN NM AND WRN TX. FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NW /LIKELY FEATURE CURRENTLY OVER SERN ORE/ SHOULD ALSO AID IN AN INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE/INTENSITY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST WITH STRONGEST STORMS...HOWEVER RATHER WEAK DEEP-LAYER SHEAR /AOB 25-30KT/ SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. ...MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES... THOUGH WIDESPREAD CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION SHOULD EFFECTIVELY RETARD HEATING/DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL FOR WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY FROM THE DELMARVA SWD ACROSS ERN NC. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SHOULD OCCUR ALONG AND AHEAD OF FRONT THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS...ON TRAILING EDGE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHEARING OUT ACROSS THE NERN STATES. GIVEN THE MODERATELY STRONG WSWLY FLOW OBSERVED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF MAINLY ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS. ..MEAD.. 08/20/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 21 07:47:00 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 21 Aug 2004 02:47:00 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200408210747.i7L7l6L32450@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 210744 SWODY2 SPC AC 210742 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0242 AM CDT SAT AUG 21 2004 VALID 221200Z - 231200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WNW ANJ 25 NNW LNR 10 S RST 10 ESE MSP CMX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S DMN 20 NNW SVC 55 ENE INW U17 50 N BCE 10 W MLF 60 E TPH 30 SSW U31 40 NW U31 10 NE WMC 85 SSE BNO 45 S RDM 35 ENE SLE 10 N BLI ...CONT... 65 NNW DVL 10 N JMS 65 NE ABR 35 E AXN 35 ENE ELO ...CONT... 45 NNE MTC SBN CMI 35 W EVV 10 WNW HOP 10 SE CSV HKY 25 ESE ECG. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER UPPER MI AND WI... ...UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO IA... UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY DROPPING SWD TOWARD NRN PARTS OF SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA IS FORECAST TO TURN EWD ACROSS ONTARIO TOMORROW AND REACH WRN QUEBEC BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD ACROSS ONTARIO DURING THE DAY BEFORE LIFTING NEWD INTO CENTRAL QUEBEC SUNDAY NIGHT. SURFACE COLD FRONT TRAILING SWWD FROM THE LOW WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY REACHING A LOWER MI/IA NEB LINE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. MODELS INDICATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE NWD AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE MID 60S FROM PARTS OF UPPER MI SWWD INTO IA AND ERN NEB. PLUME OF STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL EXTEND EWD FROM THE PLAINS TOWARD THE MS VALLEY AND ENHANCE INSTABILITY WITHIN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS. SBCAPE IS FORECAST DURING THE AFTERNOON TO RANGE FROM 2500-3000 J/KG OVER IA DECREASING NEWD TO 1000-1500 J/KG OVER NERN WI INTO UPPER MI. A BAND OF STRONG STORMS MAY BE ONGOING EARLY IN THE PERIOD FROM WRN UPPER MI INTO WRN WI IN ASSOCIATION WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK MOVING ACROSS SRN ONTARIO. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EWD DURING THE DAY WITH POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLE HAIL. CONVECTION WILL BE SLOWER TO DEVELOP FARTHER SWWD ALONG THE COLD FRONT UNTIL STRONG HEATING HELPS WEAKEN THE CAP BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING. MODELS OFFER DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS CONCERNING CONVECTIVE INITIATION...BUT THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME THREAT FOR STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF PREDICTED INSTABILITY. GENERALLY WEAK WINDS ALOFT AND MINIMAL VERTICAL SHEAR WILL LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL. ...MT INTO ND... STRONG UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TOMORROW REACHING THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION BY 23/12Z. A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD ACROSS MT WITH ELY LOW LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF THE LOW TRANSPORTING MARGINAL MOISTURE WWD INTO THE REGION. STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH COUPLED WITH PRONOUNCED VERTICAL SHEAR WILL AID DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL MT BY MID AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EWD TOWARD ERN MT DURING THE EVENING HOURS...AND MOVE INTO ND DURING THE NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL JET AND ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION INCREASE AFTER DARK. PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE WEAK MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...STRENGTH OF DYNAMIC FORCING SUGGESTS THREAT FOR ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WITH A FEW CELLS OVER MT...WITH THREAT TRANSITIONING TO PRIMARILY SMALL HAIL DURING THE NIGHT AS CONVECTION BECOMES INCREASINGLY ELEVATED NORTH OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT. ..WEISS.. 08/21/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 21 16:45:19 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 21 Aug 2004 11:45:19 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200408211645.i7LGjNL08816@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 211643 SWODY2 SPC AC 211641 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1141 AM CDT SAT AUG 21 2004 VALID 221200Z - 231200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SW ALO 15 S FOD 20 S FRM 15 NE MKT 40 NW EAU 30 WNW RHI 40 SW IMT 25 NW OSH 25 W DBQ 45 SW ALO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SE OSC 10 S CGX 20 WNW UIN 45 SSE SZL 30 SSE UNO 45 W CSV 45 NE HKY 25 ESE ECG ...CONT... 65 NNW DVL 10 N JMS 65 NE ABR 35 E AXN 35 ENE ELO ...CONT... 40 SE ELP 35 WSW 4CR GNT U17 50 N BCE 10 W MLF 60 E TPH 30 SSW U31 40 NW U31 10 NE WMC 85 SSE BNO 45 S RDM 35 ENE SLE 10 N BLI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE WRN GREAT LAKES/UPPER MIDWEST... ...UPPER GREAT LAKES SWWD INTO IA/NEB... SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER SRN ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM SWRN ONTARIO/NRN MN EWD ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AND INTO QUEBEC SUNDAY NIGHT. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP NEWD FROM VICINITY OF THE MN ARROWHEAD INTO ERN ONTARIO BY EARLY EVENING WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHING SEWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY/WRN GREAT LAKES. CLUSTERS OF STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING INITIALLY ALONG FRONT FROM LS SWWD INTO SRN MN. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT PERSISTENT CLOUDINESS/PRECIPITATION WILL TEND TO LIMIT DESTABILIZATION AND OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES/UP OF MI. FARTHER SW...DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S BENEATH PLUME OF MODESTLY STEEP /7-7.5 C/KM/ LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING INSTABILITY WITH SWWD EXTENT. EXPECT AFTERNOON MLCAPES TO RANGE FROM AROUND 1000 J/KG OVER CNTRL WI...TO 1500-2000 J/KG FROM CNTRL IA INTO ERN NEB. SUSTAINED CONVERGENCE AND A WARMING BOUNDARY-LAYER SHOULD SUPPORT THE SWWD DEVELOPMENT OF TSTMS ALONG FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM PARTS OF NERN/CNTRL WI INTO PORTIONS OF NEB/IA. THOUGH STRONGEST WIND FIELDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST TO N OF STRONGER INSTABILITY...IT APPEARS THAT A MODEST SHEAR/INSTABILITY COMBINATION WILL DEVELOP FROM CNTRL WI INTO SERN MN/NERN IA. HERE...A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ...NRN HIGH PLAINS... VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH /EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OFF THE B.C./WA COASTS/ WILL AMPLIFY AND BECOME PROGRESSIVELY NEGATIVELY-TILTED ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. IN RESPONSE...A SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN OVER CNTRL MT WITH ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SHARPENING ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES. WRN EXTENSION OF FRONTAL ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH GREAT LAKES SYSTEM WILL LIKELY STALL BEFORE RETREATING NWD AS A WARM FRONT OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. THOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LIMITED...STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO A WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS CNTRL/ERN MT WITH AFTERNOON MLCAPES INCREASING TO AROUND 500-700 J/KG. STRONG UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AHEAD OF DEEPENING SURFACE/MID-LEVEL SYSTEMS IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG HIGHER TERRAIN BY AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY WILL THEN SPREAD EWD/NEWD ACROSS CNTRL/ERN MT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODERATELY STRONG ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR /I.E. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 45-55KTS/...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. THE FORECAST WEAK INSTABILITY PRECLUDES A CATEGORICAL RISK ATTM. HOWEVER...IF IT BECOMES APPARENT THAT AIRMASS WILL BECOME MORE UNSTABLE THAN IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED...A SLIGHT RISK MAY BE REQUIRED ON UPCOMING DAY 1 OUTLOOKS. ...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS... COMBINATION OF DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND RATHER STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7-8 C/KM ARE EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPES INCREASING TO 2000-3000 J/KG. LATEST SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE ALL FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING DEEP CONVECTION ALONG LEE TROUGH OVER PORTIONS OF SWRN/S-CNTRL KS INTO ERN TX PNHDL/NWRN TX AND WRN OK. THOUGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL REMAIN RATHER WEAK /AOB 20-25KTS/ THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT A FEW STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR LARGE HAIL. ..MEAD.. 08/21/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 22 07:39:31 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 22 Aug 2004 02:39:31 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200408220739.i7M7ddL20567@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 220737 SWODY2 SPC AC 220735 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0235 AM CDT SUN AUG 22 2004 VALID 231200Z - 241200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE INL BRD 20 ENE SPW 20 NW OMA 10 SSW GRI 30 S BBW 20 WSW ANW PIR 35 ENE BIS 65 NNW DVL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSE DRT 45 SSE BWD DAL DUA 30 NNE OKC GCK SNY LAR 45 ENE CAG 10 SE MTJ 15 SW DUG ...CONT... 20 S YUM IGM SGU 60 SSE ELY 60 SW ELY 60 SE TVL 40 NE SCK 35 N RBL 35 E PDX 35 E BLI ...CONT... 25 S HUL PSF AVP PIT CMH LUK 10 NNW LEX LOZ FLO 10 SSE CRE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE NRN PLAINS INTO WRN MN... ...NRN PLAINS INTO WRN MN... MODELS INDICATE SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW ENTERING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL LIFT NEWD FROM THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES TOMORROW AS BAND OF STRONGER SWLY WINDS ALOFT MOVES ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS REGION. A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM SERN MT/NERN WY INTO CENTRAL SD DURING THE AFTERNOON...THEN REMAIN OVER ERN SD AND WEAKEN DURING THE NIGHT AS SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTS NEWD AWAY FROM THE AREA. A WARM FRONT EXTENDING SEWD FROM THE LOW WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NWD FROM IA INTO SRN MN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...WHILE A LEE TROUGH WILL EXTEND SWD OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. NOCTURNAL CONVECTION FROM DAY 1 IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING OVER PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS EARLY IN THE PERIOD. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NEWD INTO ERN ND BY AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AXIS WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED EAST OF THE LEE TROUGH FROM CENTRAL ERN/NEB INTO THE ERN DAKOTAS AND WRN MN...WHERE SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE MID 60S AND MLCAPE OF 2000-2500 J/KG ARE EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON. DURING THE AFTERNOON...NEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL AND ERN SD WITHIN THE ENHANCED CONVERGENCE ZONE NEAR THE SD SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONT. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP SWD ALONG THE LEE TROUGH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHERE LARGER MLCAPE (2500-3000 J/KG) IS PREDICTED. MOST FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE CONFINED TO THE DAKOTAS AND NWRN MN IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE STRONGER SWLY WINDS ALOFT...SUGGESTING MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT OVER ERN SD INTO SERN ND. THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS IT MOVES ENEWD INTO PARTS OF WRN AND EVENTUALLY CENTRAL MN...ALTHOUGH SEVERE POTENTIAL IS ANTICIPATED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER 04-06Z. ..WEISS.. 08/22/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 22 17:32:06 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 22 Aug 2004 12:32:06 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200408221733.i7MHXOL09759@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 221729 SWODY2 SPC AC 221728 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1228 PM CDT SUN AUG 22 2004 VALID 231200Z - 241200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE INL BRD 20 ENE SPW 20 SSW EMP 10 NW PNC 45 WSW END 45 E LBL 25 SSW MCK 15 ENE PHP 60 NNE MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 ENE ELO 55 NNE EAU 25 SE OSH 30 NE GRR 40 ENE MTC ...CONT... 25 S HUL PSF AVP PIT 20 NNW ZZV 25 WNW UNI 35 W HTS 20 SSE 5I3 SOP 15 E EWN ...CONT... 50 SSE DRT 35 SSE BWD MWL 45 WSW SPS 20 NNW CDS 55 ESE LAA 25 SW SNY LAR 25 S VEL 15 WNW 4BL 30 SW DUG ...CONT... 15 E CZZ 45 SSE LAS 45 S P38 60 SSE ELY 40 SSE EKO 15 NW NFL 50 W RNO 40 S RBL 45 W RBL 10 WSW CEC. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN PLAINS SWD INTO PARTS OF KS AND OK... ...NRN PLAINS/NEB... NEGATIVELY-TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING MID AND HIGH-LEVEL JET STREAKS ARE FORECAST TO LIFT NEWD FROM THE NRN ROCKIES/NRN HIGH PLAINS INTO S-CNTRL CANADA MONDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. PRIMARY SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP NEWD FROM SRN INTO CNTRL SASKATCHEWAN PRIOR TO OCCLUDING. MEANWHILE...A SECONDARY SURFACE CYCLONE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS NERN WY/WRN SD DURING THE AFTERNOON BEFORE MOVING INTO CNTRL SD BY EARLY EVENING. ALSO AT THIS TIME...ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM CNTRL ND THROUGH THIS LOW SWWD INTO SRN WY...WHILE WARM FRONT STRETCHES SEWD FROM LOW THROUGH NWRN IA INTO NRN IL. FINALLY...LEE TROUGH WILL INTENSIFY SWD THROUGH THE NEB SANDHILLS INTO WRN KS. NOCTURNAL TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING INITIALLY OVER PARTS OF ERN MT/WRN AND CNTRL DAKOTAS LARGELY N OF WARM FRONT WITHIN ZONE OF STRONG WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG 40-50KT SLY LLJ. WITH NWD RETREAT OF WARM FRONT AND DEVELOPMENT OF SECONDARY SURFACE LOW...AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY MOIST/UNSTABLE ACROSS EXPANDING WARM SECTOR FROM WRN/CNTRL NEB NWD INTO CNTRL SD WITH AFTERNOON MLCAPES INCREASING TO 1000-2000 J/KG. INCREASED LARGE-SCALE FORCING AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM COUPLED WITH ENHANCED CONVERGENCE ALONG AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARIES SHOULD AID IN SURFACE-BASED TSTM DEVELOPMENT BY AFTERNOON FROM WRN/CNTRL SD SWD INTO N-CNTRL NEB. FORECAST SOUNDINGS /ESPECIALLY THOSE E OF SURFACE LOW AND ALONG WARM FRONT/ SUGGEST SUFFICIENTLY STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. WHILE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS OWING TO STEEP LAPSE RATES AND RELATIVELY HIGH CLOUD BASES...POTENTIAL FOR A TORNADO OR TWO WILL EXIST NEAR SURFACE LOW SEWD ALONG WARM FRONT WHERE LOCALLY STRONGER SHEAR AND LOWER LFC/LCL HEIGHTS WILL BE CO-LOCATED. STORMS SHOULD TEND TO COALESCE INTO CLUSTERS WHILE SPREADING EWD ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS INTO WRN MN MONDAY NIGHT. WEAKENING INSTABILITY WITH TIME AND EWD EXTENT SUGGEST AN OVERALL DECREASE IN SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ...KS/OK... LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE IS FORECAST TO SHARPEN AND SLOWLY MOVE/MIX EWD THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS PARTS OF WRN KS/TX PNHDL. TO THE E...MOIST BOUNDARY-LAYER /I.E. DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S/ IN CONJUNCTION WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE TO STRONG AFTERNOON INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES APPROACHING 2000-3000 J/KG. WHILE STRONGEST DYNAMIC FORCING WILL REMAIN N OF REGION...STRONG HEATING/CONVERGENCE INVOF TROUGH AND INCREASING ASCENT IN LEFT EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET STREAK APPROACHING FROM SRN ROCKIES MAY AID IN LOCAL CAP REMOVAL AND INITIATION OF DEEP CONVECTION DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AHEAD OF TROUGH/DRYLINE INDICATE FAVORABLE VEERING PROFILES WITH 0-3KM SRH VALUES OF 100-200 M2/S2. THOUGH MID-LEVEL WIND FIELDS ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG /AOB 25KTS/ STRENGTHENING FLOW IN THE 8-10KM LAYER /ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE TX PNHDL INTO WRN OK/ MAY SUPPORT A FEW SUPERCELL STRUCTURES GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY AND LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE. LARGE HAIL APPEARS LIKELY WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS...IN ADDITION TO A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. STRENGTHENING BRANCH OF LLJ ACROSS WRN TX/OK INTO SRN KS MAY SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER COOLING BOUNDARY-LAYER AND RESULTANT DECREASE IN INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. ..MEAD.. 08/22/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 23 07:25:19 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 23 Aug 2004 02:25:19 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200408230725.i7N7PjL25260@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 230723 SWODY2 SPC AC 230720 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0220 AM CDT MON AUG 23 2004 VALID 241200Z - 251200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW DLH 30 WNW EAU 30 E ALO 30 N SZL 30 NNE BVO P28 HLC BBW 35 SW MHE 45 S FAR 50 WNW HIB 20 SSW DLH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW ERI CAK PKB GSO 15 S ILM ...CONT... 10 SE 7R4 LFK BWD 65 NW ABI CDS DDC GLD LHX ROW 10 S ELP ...CONT... 65 SW TUS INW U17 DPG BOI PUW 10 NW BLI ...CONT... 65 WNW HVR GTF SHR PHP ABR 40 W RRT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM EASTERN KS INTO PARTS OF MN/WI... ...NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST REGION... UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST STATES WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND BROADEN ON TUESDAY...WITH BAND OF MODERATELY STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS STRETCHING FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. A PERSISTENT SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS STATES WILL MAINTAIN SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS FROM EASTERN OK INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY...WITH DEEP LAYER AND LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED/SEVERE STORMS ALONG THIS AXIS. THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT OVER THE SLIGHT RISK AREA WILL BE QUESTIONABLE DUE TO UNKNOWN DURATION/EXTENT OF DAY1 CONVECTION. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT A MODERATELY TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT OVER PARTS OF EASTERN SD/EASTERN NEB/WESTERN MN/WESTERN IA ON DAY2. SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THIS REGION WITH THE THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN STRONGER CELLS. OTHER MORE ISOLATED SEVERE ACTIVITY MAY OCCUR ALONG FRONT OVER NORTHERN MN...AND OVERNIGHT AS STORMS SPREAD INTO WESTERN WI/EASTERN IA. ...CENTRAL PLAINS... MAIN SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST OVER CENTRAL KS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. CONVERGENCE ALONG COLD FRONT FROM LOW NORTHWARD INTO NEB/SD WILL LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER...SOUTHWARD DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION INTO OK AND NORTHWEST TX IS MUCH LESS CERTAIN. MODELS SUGGEST THAT PIECE OF UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CA WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY DAY2. THIS MAY AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED STORMS. IF SO...PARAMETERS APPEAR SUFFICIENT FOR A RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. WILL ONLY OUTLOOK LOW PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME...BUT AREA MAY REQUIRE UPGRADE IN LATER OUTLOOKS. ..HART.. 08/23/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 23 17:06:29 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 23 Aug 2004 12:06:29 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200408231706.i7NH6mL13195@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 231705 SWODY2 SPC AC 231702 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1202 PM CDT MON AUG 23 2004 VALID 241200Z - 251200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DLH EAU 25 SSW LNR 25 E MLI UIN 35 NNE SZL 30 NE BVO P28 60 SW HLC 20 ESE LIC 30 ESE FCL 35 WSW BFF 45 W VTN 10 SSW HON 30 W AXN 40 SW HIB DLH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 WNW HVR GTF SHR 35 WNW PHP 15 NNW ABR 70 NNW TVF ...CONT... 25 ENE CLE 30 N PKB BKW 35 SSW GSO CRE ...CONT... 15 SSE CRP 35 WNW VCT 30 NW CLL 50 NE ACT 15 ENE SEP 50 ENE SJT 30 ENE BGS 40 NE PVW 40 ESE LBL 35 WSW GCK 50 SSW LAA 30 SW TCC ROW 10 S ELP ...CONT... 70 ESE YUM 50 WSW GCN 15 S BCE 10 NW MLF 55 NW DRA 35 NW BIH 25 W RNO 20 SSE BNO 25 SSE PDT 10 SE EAT 15 SE BLI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY... ...PLAINS... UNUSUAL LATE AUG PATTERN WILL MORE CLOSELY RESEMBLE LATE SPRING ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS WEEK. BROAD TROUGHING ACROSS THE WRN U.S. WILL CONTINUE WITH EPISODIC SHORTWAVES EXPECTED TO EJECT ACROSS THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY. THIS WILL ENSURE LEE TROUGH WILL REMAIN FIRMLY ESTABLISHED FROM NWRN TX...NWD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHERE MORE E-W VARIABILITY WILL BE NOTED DUE TO TRANSITORY SHORTWAVE INFLUENCES. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE HAS RETURNED NWD EAST OF THE LEE TROUGH AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MODERATE TO EXTREME INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS STRONG HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO CONVECTIVE INITIATION ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHERE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE STRONG VEERING...AND ADEQUATE VERTICAL SPEED SHEAR TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS. MOST LIKELY REGION OF INITIATION WILL OCCUR OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS FROM NERN CO INTO WRN NEB WITHIN WEAK UPSLOPE REGION WHERE MINIMAL INHIBITION WILL EXIST. ANOTHER ZONE OF POSSIBLE INITIATION WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF SFC LOW OVER NRN KS ALONG E-W BOUNDARY. IT APPEARS LARGE HAIL...POSSIBLY VERY LARGE...WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS IT EVOLVES AND SPREADS EWD ACROSS PRIMARILY THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY LATE IN THE PERIOD. INCREASING LLJ INTO SERN NEB/NRN MO WILL PROVE RESPONSIBLE FOR EWD EXPANSION OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INTO THIS REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT. FARTHER NORTH...LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT NEWD QUICKLY INTO MANITOBA/WRN ONTARIO EARLY IN THE PERIOD. FORCING WILL GRADUALLY WANE SWD ALONG THE BOUNDARY INTO MN WHERE DIURNAL HEATING WILL BE PRIMARILY RESPONSIBLE FOR ISOLATED LATE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. ..DARROW.. 08/23/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 24 07:28:40 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 24 Aug 2004 02:28:40 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200408240729.i7O7T9L32625@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 240726 SWODY2 SPC AC 240724 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0224 AM CDT TUE AUG 24 2004 VALID 251200Z - 261200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE RRT BRD MSP MSN BMI STL JLN EMP GRI MHE JMS 65 NNW DVL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N BVE JAN TXK JCT 15 NW DRT ...CONT... ELP HOB LTS PNC RSL LBF SNY DEN EGE RKS MLD OWY LMT 10 NW OTH ...CONT... ROC MGW DAN GSB HSE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID MS VALLEY INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND WESTERN MN... BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL BE PRESENT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS/ROCKIES ON WEDNESDAY...WITH RELATIVELY STRONG WESTERLY MID LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. MAIN SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO EASTERN KS/WESTERN MO. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS EAST OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES FOR ORGANIZED/SEVERE STORMS. A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS ALSO EXPECTED OVER THE MID MS VALLEY AND UPPER MIDWEST...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OVER 3000 J/KG FROM MO/KS INTO MN/ND. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OVER EASTERN ND/SD ALONG COLD FRONT...WITH ACTIVITY SPREADING EASTWARD INTO MN DURING THE EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND PERHAPS ISOLATED TORNADOES. FARTHER SOUTH...ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS MAY INITIATE ALONG DRYLINE OVER EASTERN NEB/KS. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A STRONGER CAP THAN FARTHER NORTH...BUT STRONG HEATING WEST OF DRYLINE COUPLED WITH APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL AID DEVELOPMENT. ALTHOUGH AREAL COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL BE LESS THAN IN THE DAKOTAS...SHEAR/CAPE COMBINATIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD EASTWARD DURING THE NIGHT ACROSS IA/MO AND POSSIBLY INTO WESTERN IL. ..HART.. 08/24/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 24 17:16:55 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 24 Aug 2004 12:16:55 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200408241717.i7OHHNL17877@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 241715 SWODY2 SPC AC 241712 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1212 PM CDT TUE AUG 24 2004 VALID 251200Z - 261200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE RRT BRD MSP MSN BMI 15 NW STL TBN 30 SSW JLN 25 W BVO 25 SSW ICT 10 NNE SLN 30 N EAR 25 S 9V9 25 SSW BIS 70 NE ISN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE ROC MGW 40 NNW GSO 30 WSW GSB 45 E EWN ...CONT... 45 SSW HOU 45 SE LFK 35 SSW MLU 10 SE ELD TXK JCT 15 NW DRT ...CONT... 10 ESE ELP 35 SSW HOB 15 WNW CDS 15 NNE P28 35 SSE RSL 30 SSE HLC 10 WNW GLD 25 SE DEN 50 SSW CAG 35 SSE EVW 45 NNW ENV 40 WSW WMC 50 SSE LMT 10 NW OTH. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS AND MS VALLEY REGION... ...CENTRAL PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY... STRONG UPPER SPEED MAX WILL DIG ESEWD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS UPSTREAM FEATURE WILL ALLOW AZ SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO EJECT NEWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS INTO ERN KS/MO WHERE IT SHOULD ENHANCE THE CONVECTIVE THREAT BY LATE AFTERNOON. LATE DAY1 MCS ACTIVITY OVER THE LOWER MO VALLEY SHOULD MAINTAIN A SFC BOUNDARY FROM CENTRAL MO...WNWWD INTO NRN KS WHERE IT'S EXPECTED TO INTERSECT A SLOWLY ADVANCING DRYLINE. INCREASED WLY DEEP LAYER FLOW SHOULD FORCE THE DRYLINE A BIT FARTHER EAST WEDNESDAY AS STRONG SFC HEATING ENHANCES MIXING. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR WELL INTO THE UPPER 90S ALONG THE DRYLINE...WHICH WILL PROVE ADEQUATE IN HIGH BASED CONVECTIVE INITIATION BY LATE AFTERNOON. WITH EXTREME BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY EXPECTED ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR TO THE EAST...4000-5000 J/KG SBCAPE...LATEST THINKING IS THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD ROOT INTO VERY MOIST AIRMASS AND BECOME SEVERE WITH SUPERCELL STRUCTURES LIKELY. VERY LARGE HAIL APPEARS POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS...ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES...AT LEAST THROUGH MID EVENING BEFORE CLUSTERING AND MCS EVOLUTION OCCURS OVER SRN IA/NRN MO LATE. ...NRN PLAINS... EXIT REGION OF UPPER SPEED MAX WILL ENHANCE VERTICAL ASCENT ACROSS THE DAKOTAS BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH A MORE FOCUSED LLJ SHOULD AID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. LARGE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST STORMS WHICH SHOULD LINGER THROUGH 12Z AS UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS TOWARD THE UPPER MS VALLEY. ..DARROW.. 08/24/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 25 06:49:41 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 25 Aug 2004 01:49:41 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200408250650.i7P6oHL13840@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 250648 SWODY2 SPC AC 250646 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0146 AM CDT WED AUG 25 2004 VALID 261200Z - 271200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MTW JVL ALO MCW MSP 55 SW IWD IMT MTW. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NE MBS SBN JEF 30 ESE OJC P35 DSM OTG AXN 35 NNW ELO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E GPT JAN MEM HRO MKO PNC TOP 55 WNW DSM FSD PHP RIW MLD 4LW 65 NNE MFR PDX SEA 20 NW BLI ...CONT... 10 ENE ROC PIT CRW GSO RWI 25 NE ECG. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MN...NORTHEAST IA...AND MUCH OF WI... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION... ETA/GFS SOLUTIONS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY THURSDAY MORNING...AND EJECT NEGATIVELY-TILTED ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN NUMEROUS STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY ON DAY2. ...NORTHERN IA/EASTERN MN/WI/MI... MAIN SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO BE OVER NERN ND/NWRN MN BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH COLD FRONT SURGING EASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN MN/CENTRAL IA. A DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SOUTHWARD FROM THE FRONTAL BULGE INTO EASTERN KS. QUALITY OF AIRMASS EAST OF THESE FEATURES WILL BE STRONGLY DEPENDENT ON TIMING AND COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY1 PERIOD. HOWEVER...CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 4000 J/KG. INCREASING UVVS AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN IA/EASTERN MN BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THIS REGION SHOW VERY FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES /6KM SHEAR OF 50-60 KNOTS AND 1KM HELICITY OVER 250 M2/S2/ FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY IN THE MODERATE RISK AREA. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING AND SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF WI AND EVENTUALLY INTO UPPER/LOWER MI. ...SOUTHERN IA/NORTHERN MO... A VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AHEAD OF DRYLINE OVER THIS REGION...WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING MLCAPE VALUES OF 3000-4000 J/KG AND A PRONOUNCED CAPPING INVERSION. WEAKER UPPER DYNAMICS IN THIS REGION WOULD SUGGEST THAT THREAT OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS SMALL. HOWEVER...OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM DAY1 CONVECTION MAY INTERACT WITH DRYLINE AND RESULT IN ISOLATED CELLS. ANY STORMS THAT FORM IN THIS AREA WOULD HAVE A RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ..HART.. 08/25/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 27 07:31:57 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 27 Aug 2004 02:31:57 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200408270732.i7R7WvL19683@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 270730 SWODY2 SPC AC 270728 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0228 AM CDT FRI AUG 27 2004 VALID 281200Z - 291200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW ROC 25 SW BFD 20 NNE PKB 20 WNW LEX 30 WSW EVV 40 SSE SPI 35 ESE CGX 70 N MTC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNE HYA 15 S POU 30 W CXY 15 ENE BKW 35 ENE AVL 50 SSE CLT 25 ENE ILM ...CONT... 50 W RRT 10 NE MBG 30 SW RAP 30 WNW SNY 30 NNW EHA 50 W CSM 55 SW TUL 20 WSW TBN 20 NE IRK 35 S OSH 10 NNE APN ...CONT... 25 SW DMN 45 SSE FMN 55 WNW COS 15 SW RWL 30 WNW PIH 45 N BKE 35 NNW 4OM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE OH VLY/LWR GRT LKS... ...SYNOPSIS... BROAD...LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE N CNTRL U.S. THIS PERIOD AS IMPULSE NOW OVER THE GRT BASIN MOVES ACROSS THE CNTRL PLNS/MID MS VLY...AND NRN STREAM DISTURBANCE NOW OVER WRN ONTARIO CONTINUES RAPIDLY ENE ACROSS QUEBEC INTO SRN NEWFOUNDLAND. HEIGHTS SHOULD RISE OVER THE SWRN STATES...AND OVER THE WRN N ATLANTIC. COLD FRONT NOW EXTENDING FROM THE UPR GRT LKS TO THE SRN HI PLNS SHOULD REACH A SRN ONTARIO/CNTRL IL/SE OK AXIS BY 12Z SATURDAY. APPROACH OF CNTRL PLNS IMPULSE EXPECTED TO INDUCE WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG FRONT OVER THE IL/IND AREA...WHILE ERN PART OF BOUNDARY DROPS SWD INTO NRN NEW ENG IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING CYCLONE IN QUEBEC. ...OH VLY/LWR GRT LKS... POCKET OF MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY /MLCAPE TO 2000 J PER KG/ SHOULD DEVELOP WITH DAYTIME HEATING INVOF DEVELOPING FRONTAL WAVE IN IND/IL/OH AND SRN MI. COUPLED WITH MODEST /25-30 KT/ DEEP SWLY SHEAR...EXPECT A FEW STRONG DIURNALLY ENHANCED STORMS /MAINLY MULTICELLS/ WITH HIGH WIND. LATER IN THE PERIOD...THIS ACTIVITY MAY CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE OR TWO SMALL MCSS WHICH SHOULD MOVE/DEVELOP E/NE INTO NW PA/WRN NY. BUT UNFAVORABLE TIME OF DAY AND WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT ANY ASSOCIATED SEVERE THREAT. ...NRN NEW ENG... MODERATE /40 KT/ DEEP WLY SHEAR WILL OVERSPREAD NRN NEW ENG ON SATURDAY ALONG SRN FRINGE OF STRONG UPPER IMPULSE CROSSING QUEBEC. BUT MEAN WLY FLOW WILL KEEP CONVERGENCE WEAK ALONG ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DROPPING S INTO NRN PORTIONS OF ME/NH/VT. COUPLED WITH WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE 700-600 MB LAYER DUE TO RIDGING OFF THE ERN SEABOARD...POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED STORMS AND SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED. ..CORFIDI.. 08/27/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 27 17:44:58 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 27 Aug 2004 12:44:58 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200408271745.i7RHjuL11717@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 271744 SWODY2 SPC AC 271741 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1241 PM CDT FRI AUG 27 2004 VALID 281200Z - 291200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW ROC 25 SW BFD 20 NNE PKB 20 WNW LEX 30 WSW EVV 40 SSE SPI 35 ESE CGX 70 N MTC. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 SSW GDP 40 NW GDP 25 N HOB 25 NW BGS 30 WNW SJT 70 SW SJT 25 SE P07. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW DMN 45 SSE FMN 55 WNW COS 15 SW RWL 30 WNW PIH 45 N BKE 35 NNW 4OM ...CONT... 50 W RRT 10 NE MBG 30 SW RAP 30 WNW SNY 25 WNW EHA 30 NNE PVW 30 W LTS 25 SE END 55 SW SZL 20 NE IRK 35 S OSH 10 NNE APN ...CONT... 35 NNE HYA 15 S POU CXY 40 WSW SHD 35 S PSK 40 ENE CLT 10 NNW HSE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER OH VALLEY/MIDWEST AREA TO LOWER GREAT LAKES... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWEST TX... ...SYNOPSIS... HEIGHT FALLS...ALTHOUGH WEAK...ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO THE OH VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGION AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES EWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY/WRN GREAT LAKES AND MID MS VALLEY TO SRN PLAINS. THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE UPPER TROUGH/FLOW PATTERN APPEARS LIKELY...AS UPSTREAM TROUGH /CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE BC COAST/ PHASES WITH TROUGH OVER NRN CANADA AND AMPLIFIES ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA AND THE NRN PLAINS ON DAY 2. COLD FRONT PROGGED TO INITIALLY EXTEND FROM ERN QUEBEC/LOWER GREAT LAKES SWWD ACROSS SRN LOWER MI TO NRN IL TO CENTRAL OK AND WEST CENTRAL TX WILL ADVANCE EAST AND SOUTH. THE CENTRAL/SRN PARTS OF THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD REACH FAR NWRN OH TO CENTRAL AR AND CENTRAL TX BY 00Z. A SURFACE WAVE LOCATED OVER NRN IL AT 12Z SATURDAY WILL MOVE ENEWD ALONG THE FRONT TO FAR NWRN OH BY 00Z...BEFORE MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT. ...OH VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES... LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER ERN CO AND AHEAD OF MAIN UPPER TROUGH...WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE MIDWEST TO MID MS VALLEY/OZARKS. LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH THIS FEATURE AND WITHIN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF 130-140 KT SWLY UPPER LEVEL JET WHICH WILL EXTEND FROM UPPER GREAT LAKES TO ERN CANADA IS EXPECTED TO AID IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ON DAY 2 ALONG THE COLD FRONT. SWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL MAINTAIN A VERY MOIST AIR MASS /SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S/ ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORM OF AT LEAST TWO MCS/S ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ACROSS THE SRN GREAT LAKES/LOWER OH VALLEY AND THE SRN PLAINS. MODELS SUGGEST... ESPECIALLY THE 27/09Z ETAKF...THAT ENOUGH CLEARING IN THE WAKE OF LOWER OH VALLEY MORNING CONVECTION SHOULD OCCUR AND ALLOW FOR SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION...GIVEN MODEST LAPSE RATES /AROUND 6.5 C/KM/. INCREASING DEEP LAYER ASCENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED UPPER FEATURES AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES EWD INTO THE MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS SHOULD RESULT IN NEW STORMS FROM SERN MO TO NWRN IND/SRN LOWER MI. DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES SUPPORT MULTICELLS AND ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WITH ACTIVITY MOST LIKELY IN THE FORM OF A BROKEN LINE ALONG THE FRONT. AS THE LEAD SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT MOVE EWD ACROSS THE MIDWEST/ OH VALLEY...THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE ACTIVITY WEAKENS WITH THE LOSS OF DAY TIME HEATING STABILIZING THE ENVIRONMENT. ...SW TX... COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SWD ACROSS SWRN TX...WITH ENELY LOW-LEVEL WINDS IN ITS WAKE ADVECTING LOWER-MIDDLE 60S SURFACE DEWPOINTS INTO THIS REGION. STEEP LAPSE RATES ATOP THIS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE 1500-2500 J/KG/ FROM SERN NM INTO SWRN TX. DESPITE MODEST NWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW /20-25 KT/...ENELY LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL ENHANCE DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR MULTICELLS AND A FEW SUPERCELLS AS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT. HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. ...NRN NEW ENGLAND... MODERATE /40 KT/ DEEP WLY SHEAR WILL OVERSPREAD NRN NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY ALONG SRN FRINGE OF STRONG UPPER IMPULSE CROSSING QUEBEC. HOWEVER...MEAN WLY FLOW WILL KEEP CONVERGENCE WEAK ALONG ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DROPPING S INTO NRN PORTIONS OF ME/NH/VT. COUPLED WITH WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE 700-600 MB LAYER DUE TO RIDGING OFF THE ERN SEABOARD...POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED STORMS AND SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED. ..PETERS.. 08/27/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 29 07:21:26 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 29 Aug 2004 02:21:26 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200408290723.i7T7N3L13088@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 290720 SWODY2 SPC AC 290717 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0217 AM CDT SUN AUG 29 2004 VALID 301200Z - 311200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSW TUS 40 NW SAD 40 SSW GNT 50 NE 4SL 35 ENE ASE 55 N CYS 50 NNW CPR 40 ESE WEY 55 WNW BOI 80 ENE RDM 20 NW PUW 20 NNE EAT 60 ENE BLI ...CONT... 20 NE INL 40 WSW DLH 15 ENE MKT 35 W FOD 35 ESE GRI 15 ESE RSL 20 S END 20 SSW SPS 50 E SJT 40 N DRT 30 WSW COT 35 ENE CRP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MIA 40 ENE FMY 35 WNW ORL 25 S CTY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 ESE ANJ 25 SW APN 35 NE MKG 20 WSW MTW 40 SSW IMT 35 SW CMX 90 ENE ELO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW MOB 40 SW TOI 45 N ABY 35 WNW AHN 45 NNE CSV 45 ESE LUK 20 SSW CAK 20 N JHW. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE GRT BASIN/NRN RCKYS ON MONDAY IN WAKE OF STRONG SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW OVER SRN SASKATCHEWAN. THE LATTER SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT MOVES FROM WRN ONTARIO/NE MN INTO SRN QUEBEC DURING THE PERIOD. FARTHER E...EXPECT RIDGE TO PERSIST OVER THE NW ATLANTIC AS T.S. GASTON SLOWLY INCREASES FORWARD SPEED AND MOVES NE ACROSS THE LWR CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION /SEE TPC FCSTS FOR DETAILS/. TRAILING FRONTAL ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH DISTURBANCE NOW OVER SASKATCHEWAN WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NEWD AS A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE NRN PLNS/UPR MS VLY DURING THE PERIOD. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THAT FEATURE...SURFACE BOUNDARIES WILL REMAIN WEAK. ...SRN/CNTRL HI PLNS... STRONG INSTABILITY /MLCAPE TO 2000 J PER KG/ WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF CO/NM AND THE ADJACENT HI PLNS ON MONDAY AS SURFACE HEATING DESTABILIZES AXIS OF RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKENING FRONT NOW OVER THE SRN PLNS. COMBINATION OF STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND VERY WEAK SHEAR WILL FAVOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING PULSE STORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY BRIEFLY POSE A THREAT FOR DOWNBURSTS/SEVERE HAIL. ...NRN PLNS/UPR MS VLY... AMPLIFICATION OF WRN RIDGE AND DIURNAL PROCESSES EXPECTED TO RESULT IN STRENGTHENING OF LOW LEVEL JET/WARM ADVECTION OVER THE ERN DAKS AND MN MONDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS AS WNWLY MID LEVEL FLOW MAINTAINS AXIS OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER REGION. SPARSE MOISTURE SHOULD LIMIT MAGNITUDE OF ELEVATED CAPE...AND THE LIKELIHOOD FOR SEVERE HAIL. ...NRN WI/NRN MI... WITH SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW OVER SASKATCHEWAN EXPECTED TO LIFT ENE ACROSS SRN ONTARIO THIS PERIOD...POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL OVER NRN PORTIONS OF WI/MI ON MONDAY. NEVERTHELESS ...DAYTIME HEATING BENEATH LINGERING PATTERN OF SEASONABLY COOL AND CYCLONIC 500 MB FLOW MAY YIELD A FEW CELLS WITH SMALL HAIL. ..CORFIDI.. 08/29/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 30 17:21:42 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 30 Aug 2004 12:21:42 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200408301723.i7UHMxL26687@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 301720 SWODY2 SPC AC 301717 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1217 PM CDT MON AUG 30 2004 VALID 311200Z - 011200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NW CTB 15 SW MSO 55 ENE BKE 60 NNE LMT 40 N MFR 25 N SLE 30 E CLM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW 7R4 15 SSE HEZ 35 WSW TCL 25 SE HSV 20 SSW HSS 35 SE ECG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SW TUS 45 SW SOW 70 WSW FMN 30 N MTJ 20 WSW LAR 50 NNW BFF 15 SE PHP 50 WSW ABR 10 ESE JMS 60 N DVL ...CONT... 35 NNW APN 35 NNE MKG 40 ESE JVL 35 ESE OTM 30 SE TOP 40 SSW ICT 45 NNW CDS 15 S BGS 40 NNE DRT 15 E CRP. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...CENTRAL PLAINS TO UPPER MS VALLEY... LARGE SCALE HEIGHT RISES WILL DOMINATE THE CENTRAL U.S. TUESDAY AS UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE PLAINS. THIS WILL ENSURE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT WILL RESIDE ACROSS SRN CANADA INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. IN THE ABSENCE OF SIGNIFICANT LARGE SCALE ASCENT...IT APPEARS BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING WILL BE INSTRUMENTAL IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION...AND THIS SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED ALONG THE MIDDLE MO VALLEY ALONG WEAK WIND SHIFT. DOWNSTREAM ACROSS MN...VEERED BUT WEAK LLJ MAY ENHANCE THE THREAT OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. WEAK SHEAR AND MARGINAL LARGE SCALE FOCUS/ASCENT SUGGEST THE THREAT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MINIMAL. HOWEVER...A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS. ..DARROW.. 08/30/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 31 17:28:47 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 31 Aug 2004 12:28:47 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200408311730.i7VHUHL15448@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 311728 SWODY2 SPC AC 311725 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1225 PM CDT TUE AUG 31 2004 VALID 011200Z - 021200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S BPT 15 W POE 40 E ELD 30 E MEM 30 SSW BWG 10 ESE 5I3 15 NE ECG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SSE OSC 20 ENE GRR 35 NNW CGX 30 NE MLI 20 NNE OTM 40 WNW DSM 25 NE FOD 35 WSW LSE 25 N AUW 15 NE CMX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 N OLF 45 NW COD 15 WSW MLD 50 ENE U31 55 SE TVL 25 NNE SAC 40 ENE ACV 50 ESE OTH 45 ESE SLE 35 ESE EPH 30 NNW 63S. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 S GBN 50 E PHX 25 WNW GUP 40 NNE DRO 25 S 4FC 45 WSW AKO 55 E LIC 45 SSE LAA 50 NNE HOB 40 SSE MAF 25 SW JCT 25 S SAT 25 ENE CRP. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...NWRN U.S... STRONG HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE NWRN U.S. DURING THE DAY2 PERIOD AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE INTO THE NRN INTER-MOUNTAIN REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL PROVE RESPONSIBLE IN FORCING A SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT INLAND...WITH ENHANCED FRONTAL CIRCULATIONS EXPECTED TO AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AHEAD OF THIS WIND SHIFT INDICATE VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR...MORE THAN ADEQUATE TO WARRANT AT LEAST LOW PROBABILITIES FOR DAMAGING WINDS OR PERHAPS HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS. IF STRONGER INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP ACROSS THIS REGION...A SLIGHT RISK MAY BE REQUIRED IN LATER OUTLOOKS. ...UPPER GREAT LAKES TO IA... WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DE-AMPLIFY AND SHIFT SEWD TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY. WEAK SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE WILL LIMIT THE CONVECTIVE THREAT ALONG SFC WIND SHIFT ACROSS WI INTO IA. HOWEVER...SLOWLY MOISTENING PROFILES ACROSS THE ERN PLAINS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY AND THE EXPECTED STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING MAY PROVE SUFFICIENT IN GENERATING AN ISOLATED LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORM. WEAK SHEAR BUT ADEQUATE INSTABILITY COULD SUPPORT GUSTY WINDS OR SOME HAIL. ..DARROW.. 08/31/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 1 07:03:33 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 01 Aug 2004 02:03:33 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200408010702.i7172mD08341@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 010700 SWODY2 SPC AC 010658 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0158 AM CDT SUN AUG 01 2004 VALID 021200Z - 031200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NNE ISN 25 WNW BIS 50 S JMS 20 ENE DLH 30 WSW CMX 70 E MQT 40 ENE PLN 45 SE OSC 25 NE TOL 20 NW HUF 30 WSW SPI 15 NW LWD 20 NE OLU 25 SE RAP 30 N 4BQ 70 NW MLS 70 NW GGW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W ERI 30 SE MFD 25 SW LUK 35 ESE OWB 30 WSW MDH 35 SW JEF 10 W FLV 25 SSW BIE 25 NE MCK 40 W IML 35 N LIC 10 SE RTN 60 W CVS 35 NE HOB 35 S BWD 55 ENE LFK 30 W LUL 40 SW SEM 15 WSW CSG 20 ESE ATL 40 W AVL 10 SE BLF 30 E HGR 25 SSW PSF 10 SSE PSM ...CONT... 60 N MOT 55 ESE MOT 50 WSW GFK 25 SSW TVF 45 WNW INL ...CONT... 65 SW TUS 40 SSW PRC 45 SSE LAS 50 ESE TPH 20 NE LOL 15 NE SVE 20 SW RBL 15 E ACV 40 SSE OTH 40 NW PDT 45 N 63S. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND WRN GREAT LAKES AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS LATE.... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL BE ANCHORED BY A MID LEVEL HIGH OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...TROUGHS ALONG THE ATLANTIC AND PACIFIC COASTS...AND THE MAIN BELT OF WLYS NEAR THE US/CANADIAN BORDER. WITHIN THE NRN STREAM...A SERIES OF EMBEDDED LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL TRANSLATE ESEWD INVOF THE BORDER...WITH WEAK WAVES ON A SURFACE FRONT AND THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS EXPECTED WITH EACH MID LEVEL TROUGH. FARTHER W...THE CLOSED LOW OVER NW CA IS FORECAST TO BECOME AN OPEN WAVE AND EJECT NEWD OVER THE NRN GREAT BASIN IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE ERN PAC. MODEST MID LEVEL FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE EJECTING TROUGH...WEAK INSTABILITY WITHIN A MID LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME...AND INVERTED-V PROFILES MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED STRONG GUSTS WITH THE STORMS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. A MORE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE STORM THREAT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND WRN GREAT LAKES. ...ERN SD TO LOWER MI AREA... COMPLICATED FORECAST SCENARIO FOR MONDAY WITH MULTIPLE SEVERE STORM EPISODES/CLUSTERS POSSIBLE. ONE POSSIBILITY IS FOR OVERNIGHT CONVECTION FROM DAY 1 TO PERSIST AS A FAST MOVING MCS ACROSS MN/WI TOWARD LOWER MI DURING THE DAY...WITH THE ATTENDANT THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS...AS SUGGESTED BY THE 00Z ETA/GFS. ANOTHER POSSIBILITY IS FOR SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT ACROSS NW WI/SRN MN/ERN SD. EITHER WAY...A RESERVOIR OF STRONG TO EXTREME INSTABILITY /MLCAPE VALUES OF 3000-5000 J/KG/ IS EXPECTED ACROSS SW WI/IA/MN/ERN SD/ERN NEB WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S COINCIDE WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 8 C/KM. THIS STRONG INSTABILITY WILL BE COMPLEMENTED BY 35-50 KT WNWLY MID LEVEL FLOW AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL VEERING WITH HEIGHT...WHICH WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AS WELL AS BOW ECHOES. THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS SHOULD BE VERY LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES WITH ANY SUPERCELLS...AND MORE CONCENTRATED DAMAGING WINDS WITH ANY MCS/S. SOME PORTION OF THE OUTLOOK AREA MAY REQUIRE AN UPGRADE TO MDT RISK IF A PARTICULAR SCENARIO/AREA BECOMES MORE APPARENT IN TIME. ...ERN MT/WRN ND LATE... IN THE WAKE OF LATE DAY 1 CONVECTION...THE WRN ND/ERN MT AREA WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY. DURING THE EVENING AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT...LOW-LEVEL SELY FLOW WILL INCREASE AND RESULT IN MOISTENING/DESTABILIZATION NWWD FROM SD. WAA AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL LATE IN THE PERIOD. ..THOMPSON.. 08/01/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 1 17:21:18 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 01 Aug 2004 12:21:18 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200408011720.i71HKeD20524@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 011718 SWODY2 SPC AC 011716 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1216 PM CDT SUN AUG 01 2004 VALID 021200Z - 031200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW SPI LWD 20 NNE OLU 45 NW VTN 40 S REJ 65 NNW REJ 20 NNW DIK 45 ESE P24 35 NNE FAR 55 NW IWD 25 N IMT 30 SSE HTL 25 SW FNT 25 ENE FWA 25 NNE IND 20 SSE CMI 30 WSW SPI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SW TUS 50 WSW PRC 60 NNE DRA 10 E LOL SVE RBL 55 ESE EKA 20 NNE ACV 50 NNE 4BK 45 N RDM 25 ESE EPH 45 N 63S ...CONT... 60 N OLF 15 W MOT 25 E DVL 20 E TVF 20 NNE ELO ...CONT... 40 W ERI 15 E MFD 40 NE SDF 25 ENE OWB 20 W MDH 40 NE MHK 10 NNE IML 10 N AKO 30 ESE DEN 20 S RTN 40 W CVS 30 ENE HOB 45 ENE SJT 30 NW LFK 40 E LUL 10 S AUO 20 SE ATL 35 W AVL BLF 20 WSW CXY 20 NNE BOS. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES... ...NRN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES... STRONG NWLY FLOW TO THE NORTH OF AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS...WILL INTENSIFY AS A MID-LEVEL JET DROPS SEWD OUT OF SRN CANADA ON DAY 2. THIS WILL CREATE A STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE CONVECTION MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE REGION. THE AIRMASS SOUTH OF A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL BECOME VERY TO EXTREMELY UNSTABLE BY AFTERNOON DUE TO HIGH SFC DEWPOINTS AND STRONG SFC HEATING. MODEL FORECASTS SUGGEST MLCAPE VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 4000 TO 5000 J/KG WHICH WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS CONSIDERING 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES SHOULD RANGE FROM 40 TO 50 KT ACROSS MOST OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. A CAPPING INVERSION WILL LIKELY INHIBIT CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE FRONT WHICH SHOULD BE LOCATED ACROSS NRN NEB AND NRN IA. HOWEVER...SUPERCELLS SHOULD DEVELOP WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD INITIATION LIKELY BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS SD DURING THE AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT AND LARGE HAIL THREAT MAY ALSO OCCUR WITH SUPERCELLS NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE SFC LOW ACROSS ERN ND AND SW MN. OTHER STRONG STORMS WILL BE LIKELY NORTH OF THE FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS ERN MT...SRN ND AND MN. THE MOST FAVORABLE AREA FOR MCS DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE IN THE STRONGER SHEAR...NORTH OF THE INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS SRN MN AND NRN IA AS STORMS CONGEAL DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THE SEVERE STORMS MAY BECOME LINEAR IN ORIENTATION WITH A COLD POOL TRACKING SEWD ACROSS SE MN AND NE IA INTO WI AND NR IL OVERNIGHT. DUE TO THE HIGH SFC DEWPOINTS AND EXTREME INSTABILITY...WIND DAMAGE WILL BE LIKELY ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MCS WITH WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...LARGE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. ...NRN ROCKIES... A CLOSED-OFF UPPER LOW WILL OPEN AND PROGRESS EWD TONIGHT REACHING THE PACIFIC NW DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. THIS WILL SPREAD STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION BY AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR 21Z MONDAY ACROSS THE REGION SHOW MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY FOR SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER...VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND COOLER TEMPS ALOFT (500 MB TEMPS OF -12 TO -14C) MAY BE ENOUGH FOR HAIL NEAR PEAK HEATING WITH THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS. THE MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY IN THE EVENING AS INSTABILITY DECREASES ACROSS THE REGION. ..BROYLES.. 08/01/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 2 07:36:23 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 02 Aug 2004 02:36:23 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200408020735.i727ZXD03135@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 020733 SWODY2 SPC AC 020732 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0232 AM CDT MON AUG 02 2004 VALID 031200Z - 041200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 N OLF 10 WSW DIK 45 N 9V9 35 SE FSD 40 NE MLI 30 SE SBN 20 NW CMH 30 WNW HTS 55 SSW LEX CGI HUT 50 S HLC 20 NE SNY 40 NE SHR 30 ENE GTF 30 NNE CTB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 N MOT 15 ENE JMS 10 S AXN 20 ESE EAU 20 SSW MBL 70 SE OSC ...CONT... 65 WSW COT 40 S CLL 35 ESE POE 40 SW LUL 10 WNW TOI 45 ESE MCN CAE 40 NE CLT 35 NE HKY 20 W HSS 25 W CSV 30 ENE JBR 15 NW FYV 25 WSW END 40 NNE AMA 20 ENE CVS 10 SW ROW 50 SSE ELP ...CONT... 30 SW FHU 80 NW GUP 25 W PUC 55 NE MLD 25 SE 27U 30 E BKE 25 WSW BNO 30 WSW 4LW 25 NNE MHS 25 NW MFR 15 SSE PDX 20 NE BLI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE OH VALLEY.... ...SYNOPSIS... SUBTLE CHANGES WILL BEGIN TO OCCUR WITHIN THE LARGE SCALE REGIME AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO DEEPEN INVOF SE HUDSON BAY...WHILE UPSTREAM HEIGHTS RISE OVER THE NRN ROCKIES AND THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES TO THE E OF AN ERN PAC TROUGH. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO ROTATE EWD OVER NRN NEW ENGLAND. THIS BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE NE STATES...THOUGH THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS RATHER MARGINAL. FARTHER W...THE ERN PAC TROUGH WILL HELP EJECT THE MID LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER NW CA...WITH THE REMNANTS OF THIS SYSTEM LIKELY TO CREST THE RIDGE OVER THE NRN ROCKIES AND EMERGE OVER THE PLAINS BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER A SLOW-MOVING WNW-ESE ORIENTED BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS TO THE MID MS VALLEY...ALONG WHICH ONE OR MORE MCS/S APPEAR LIKELY DURING THE PERIOD. ...PLAINS TO MID MS VALLEY... FORECAST SCENARIO REMAINS COMPLEX WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF MULTIPLE MCS/S FROM NOW THROUGH TUESDAY...WHICH WILL UNDOUBTEDLY IMPACT THE SEVERE STORM THREAT TUESDAY ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. AT THIS TIME...THE MOST PROBABLE EVOLUTION IS FOR SEVERE STORMS TO FORM DURING THE AFTERNOON INVOF SW SD/WRN NEB AND SPREAD ESEWD THROUGH THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS IN ADVANCE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CRESTING THE RIDGE. STRONG INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED AGAIN IN THE CORRIDOR ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY N OF THE SURFACE FRONT...AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THIS SAME CORRIDOR. LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SUPERCELLS RELATIVELY EARLY IN THE EPISODE...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BECOMING DAMAGING WINDS OVERNIGHT. OTHER CONVECTION FROM THE DAY 1 PERIOD MAY PERSIST AND/OR INTENSIFY DURING THE DAY WHILE MOVING SE ACROSS THE IA/IL/INDIANA AREA. DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT THIS AREA. ...ERN MT AREA... LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE BY TUESDAY ACROSS ERN MT...RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS. DESPITE THE TENDENCY FOR MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES OVER THIS AREA...THE STATIONARY NW-SE FRONT AND STRONG SURFACE HEATING ACROSS CENTRAL MT SHOULD ALLOW A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. STRONG DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR AND MODERATE INSTABILITY COULD RESULT IN SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ..THOMPSON.. 08/02/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 2 17:35:05 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 02 Aug 2004 12:35:05 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200408021734.i72HYC910062@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 021731 SWODY2 SPC AC 021727 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1227 PM CDT MON AUG 02 2004 VALID 031200Z - 041200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NNE ISN 35 W BIS FSD 20 N DBQ AZO 15 NNW PIT 20 SE CRW 5I3 BWG 20 SW MDH 25 S SLN 45 ENE GLD BFF BIL HLN 20 N CTB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW FHU 4BL RKS PIH 40 N SUN 45 SE BKE BNO 35 ESE MHS 45 W MHS 35 NW MFR PDX 15 NE BLI ...CONT... 60 NNE MOT 15 ENE JMS AXN CWA 20 NNE MTW 35 NNE MBS ...CONT... 10 NW LRD 25 SSE CLL 15 SSE POE MCB MGM LGC 25 WNW AHN 50 SSE TYS BNA POF JLN P28 35 N GAG AMA 65 SE ELP. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN ROCKIES SEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THEN EWD ACROSS THE MID MS/OH VALLEYS... ...SYNOPSIS... ACTIVE...BUT COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN IS FORECAST FOR TUESDAY. MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN FROM HUDSON BAY SWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES/NEW ENGLAND...WHILE UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE NRN ROCKIES NWD INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING TROUGH...WITH THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEW ENGLAND SWWD ACROSS THE NRN OHIO VALLEY/CENTRAL PLAINS AND THEN NWWD INTO MT BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FARTHER W ...AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NRN CA...IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN...BUT BE EJECTED NEWD INTO THE NRN ROCKIES TUESDAY NIGHT. ...CENTRAL PLAINS EWD INTO MID MS VALLEY/OH VALLEYS... MODELS SUGGEST POSSIBILITY OF MULTIPLE MCS/S ON TUESDAY..THOUGH LOCATION/TIMING/SPEED ARE OFTEN NOT HANDLED WELL BY THE MODELS. PAST COUPLE OF ETA/GFS RUNS...INCLUDING GFS NRN BIAS...HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN FORECASTING CENTRAL PLAINS CONVECTION TONIGHT BEING LOCATED IN IA/IL AT THE START OF PERIOD. THESE STORMS MIGHT BE MARGINALLY SEVERE IN THE MORNING...BUT WITH HEATING... MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY AND 30-40 KT MID/HIGH LEVEL WINDS...A BOW ECHO IS POSSIBLE AS THE STORMS MOVE EWD INTO THE OH VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER CLUSTER IS ALSO FORECAST TO DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AS BOUNDARY LAYER UPSLOPE FLOW AIDS IN INITIATION NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT. WEAK FORCING AND CAPPING INVERSION WILL LIMIT CONVECTION SOUTH OF FRONT. STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND MUCAPES FROM 2000-3000 J/KG WOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND SOME WIND DAMAGE. LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO VEER FROM NEB INTO SRN IA/NRN MO AND SHOULD FAVOR STORMS EVOLVING INTO A SLIGHT ELEVATED BOW ECHO WITH MAINLY A WIND THREAT SPREADING ESEWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY OVERNIGHT. ...MT AREA... ELY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL MOISTEN SURFACE DEWPOINTS INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S ON TUESDAY ACROSS ERN MT...RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS. DESPITE HEIGHT RISES...STATIONARY NW-SE FRONT...STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MODERATE INSTABILITY FAVOR SUPERCELLS...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. OTHER STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN WRN MT TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH DRY BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGESTING ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS. ...NEW ENGLAND... APPROACHING FRONT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. DEEP WSWLY FLOW MAY BE FAVORABLE TO ORGANIZE STORMS INTO LINES/BANDS WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS. ALTHOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE 1000-2000 J/KG OF MLCAPES...NCEP ENSEMBLE SUGGESTS INSTABILITY WILL BE MOSTLY AOB 1000 J/KG...SO ONLY LOW PROBABILITIES OF WIND DAMAGE ATTM. ..IMY.. 08/02/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 3 07:31:42 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 03 Aug 2004 02:31:42 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200408030730.i737Uq923923@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 030728 SWODY2 SPC AC 030727 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0227 AM CDT TUE AUG 03 2004 VALID 041200Z - 051200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW JHW 25 SSW DUJ 50 ENE CRW 15 NW 5I3 40 E BWG 15 E CGI 40 WNW TBN 25 N SZL 30 E LWD 30 SE DBQ DTW. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NNW GGW 60 NE 4BQ 30 SE MHN MCK 50 WNW GLD 20 WNW CYS 15 SE SHR 45 NW 3HT 60 NW CTB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW LRD 40 SSE CLL 35 SE ESF 65 SW SEM 40 WSW MCN 30 E FAY 15 NNE HSE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SW TUS 35 SE PHX 25 SSW PRC 45 NNE IGM 35 SW MLF 20 ENE DPG 25 NW MLD 55 WSW SUN 30 ESE BNO 45 NE LMT 25 W MHS 15 ENE 4BK 25 WNW PDX 25 NNE BLI ...CONT... 60 NNW ISN 45 E Y22 9V9 35 ENE BUB 35 NNE RSL 10 E MHK 35 NE FNB 30 E MCW 15 NE GRB 20 SE APN ...CONT... 35 WNW SYR 10 WSW BGM CXY 45 S MRB 15 S PSK 40 ENE CHA 20 ENE GWO 30 SSW TXK 35 N BWD 30 WSW MAF 60 SSW MRF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID MS VALLEY TO THE OH VALLEY.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NRN HIGH PLAINS.... ...SYNOPSIS... 00Z MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN EVOLUTION TO A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PAC NW...A RIDGE OVER THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES...AND A DEEPENING DOWNSTREAM TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. WITHIN THE BELT OF FLOW FROM THE NRN ROCKIES TO THE OH VALLEY...A SMALLER SCALE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP EWD FROM ROUGHLY ERN IA EARLY TO WRN PA/NY LATE IN THE PERIOD. SOME AMPLIFICATION OF THIS MID LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM HEIGHT RISES...BUT THE MAGNITUDE OF THE AMPLIFICATION SUGGESTS A CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK IN BOTH THE 00Z ETA AND GFS FORECASTS. ...MID MS TO OH VALLEY AREA... TAKEN LITERALLY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE ETA/GFS SHOW EXTREMELY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR IN A CORRIDOR IMMEDIATELY E OF THE SURFACE LOW FROM NRN IL AROUND MIDDAY TO WRN PA TOMORROW NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S AND THE INTENSE VERTICAL SHEAR WOULD APPEAR TO FAVOR A SIGNIFICANT TORNADO THREAT E OF THE SURFACE LOW...THOUGH THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THIS SCENARIO GIVEN THE NECESSARY EVOLUTION OF THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS ORIGINATING DURING THE DAY 1 PERIOD. DESPITE THE QUESTIONS REGARDING THE INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM AND ANY ASSOCIATED TORNADO THREAT...THE GENERAL PATTERN EVOLUTION FAVORS A SEVERE WIND/HAIL THREAT WITH ONE OR MORE STORM CLUSTERS FROM THE MID MS VALLEY EARLY IN THE PERIOD TO THE OH VALLEY LATER DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. ...NRN HIGH PLAINS... A LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AS A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS SWD ACROSS THE LOWER PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY IN THE WAKE OF THE AMPLIFYING GREAT LAKES MID LEVEL TROUGH. THIS FLOW REGIME WILL TEND TO CONFINE THE RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TO A NARROW CORRIDOR IMMEDIATELY E OF THE ROCKIES FROM CENTRAL MT TO ERN WY/WRN NEB/NE CO. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS...GIVEN 30-40 KT WLY TO NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW AND POTENTIALLY MODERATE INSTABILITY. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF A MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THIS AREA...UPSLOPE FLOW AND TERRAIN INFLUENCES SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ..THOMPSON.. 08/03/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 3 17:36:22 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 03 Aug 2004 12:36:22 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200408031735.i73HZS930667@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 031733 SWODY2 SPC AC 031731 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1231 PM CDT TUE AUG 03 2004 VALID 041200Z - 051200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NNW GGW 60 NE 4BQ 30 SE MHN MCK 50 WNW GLD 20 WNW CYS 15 SE SHR 45 NW 3HT 60 NW CTB. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW JHW 25 SSW DUJ 50 ENE CRW 15 NW 5I3 40 E BWG 15 E CGI 40 WNW TBN 25 N SZL 30 E LWD 30 SE DBQ 20 S MTC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW LRD 40 SSE CLL 35 SE ESF 65 SW SEM 40 WSW MCN 30 E FAY 15 NNE HSE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW SYR 10 WSW BGM CXY 45 S MRB 15 S PSK 40 ENE CHA 20 ENE GWO 30 SSW TXK 35 N BWD 30 WSW MAF 60 SSW MRF ...CONT... 60 SW TUS 40 SE PHX 25 SSW PRC 45 NNE IGM 35 SW MLF 20 ENE DPG 25 NW MLD 55 WSW SUN 30 ESE BNO 45 NE LMT 25 W MHS 15 ENE 4BK 25 ESE AST 20 NW BLI ...CONT... 60 NNW ISN 45 E Y22 9V9 35 ENE BUB 35 NNE RSL 10 E MHK 35 NE FNB 30 E MCW 15 NE GRB 20 SE APN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE MID MS VLY ACROSS THE MIDWEST TO THE UPPER OH VLY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER FLOW PATTERN CHANGE WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY FEATURING A TROUGH OVER THE PAC NW...A ROCKIES RIDGE AND A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WITHIN THIS FLOW REGIME...A PIECE OF THE MIDLEVEL IMPULSE NOW CROSSING THE NRN ROCKIES WILL TOP THE RIDGE AND DIG SEWD INTO THE CORN BELT TONIGHT AND THE UPPER OH VLY BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...A LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE IMPULSE WILL MOVE FROM IA EARLY WEDNESDAY EWD TO WRN PA BY EARLY THURSDAY. IN WAKE OF THE LOW...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SWD ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE LOW AND FRONT WILL BE THE IMPETUS FOR ORGANIZED TSTMS. ...MID MS VLY ACROSS THE MIDWEST TO THE UPPER OH VLY... 12Z ETA/GFS STILL APPEAR TO BE OVER-AMPLIFYING FEATURES SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS RUNS OWING TO CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK PROBLEMS. SEE HPC MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR FURTHER DETAILS. FORECAST DETAILS WILL RELY HEAVILY ON CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION TODAY/TONIGHT AND ALSO ON THE MAGNITUDE OF AMPLIFICATION THAT INDEED OCCURS. A MCS SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF THE CORN BELT AND UPPER MS VLY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. TSTMS SHOULD INTENSIFY ALONG SRN EDGE OF THIS MCS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS/HODOGRAPHS VCNTY LOW AND E-W BOUNDARY THROUGH NRN IND AND NRN OH WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF TORNADOES GIVEN VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR. AGAIN MODELS MAY BE OVER-AMPLIFYING FEATURES. IF MODEL GUIDANCE IS CORRECT...SUPERCELL TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL BE HIGH OVER PARTS OF THE AREA ESPECIALLY WITH INITIAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT. MORE LIKELY SCENARIO WILL BE FOR A BOW ECHO OR TWO TO TRACK FROM THE MID/UPPER MS VLY ESEWD ACROSS THE MIDWEST TO THE OH VLY. BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN VERY MOIST /70S/ AND MODEST UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW WILL EXIST ABOVE H85. THUS...KINEMATIC/ THERMODYNAMIC SET-UPS WILL BE HIGHLY FAVORABLE FOR BOW ECHOES WITH DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL AND FUTURE OUTLOOKS MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED. ...NRN HIGH PLAINS... OUTFLOW FROM SURFACE HIGH MOVING SWD THROUGH THE PLAINS WILL MAINTAIN A MOIST LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. NWLY FLOW OF 40-45 KTS ATOP THE ESELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL PRODUCE FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. TIMING OF SIGNIFICANT MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TOPPING THE RIDGE WILL BE DIFFICULT. IT IS LIKELY...HOWEVER...THAT ANY ORGANIZED TSTMS WILL BE TIED TO THE DIURNAL CYCLE AND WITHIN A NARROW CORRIDOR FROM CNTRL MT TO ERN WY/WRN NEB/NERN CO. ...INTERIOR PAC NW... LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT MARINE PUSH MAY BEGIN ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS UPSTREAM TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE COAST. INCREASING UPPER DIVERGENCE/DIFFLUENCE WILL TEND TO SUPPORT STRONGER TSTMS OVER THE CASCADES THAT MAY MOVE INTO INTERIOR PARTS OF WA/ORE DURING THE EVENING. THOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE SOMEWHAT WEAK...ONE OR TWO TSTMS MAY ROTATE AND PRODUCE LARGE HAIL OR HIGH WINDS. ..RACY.. 08/03/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 4 17:17:20 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 04 Aug 2004 12:17:20 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200408041716.i74HGQ912227@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 041714 SWODY2 SPC AC 041712 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1212 PM CDT WED AUG 04 2004 VALID 051200Z - 061200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NNE OLF 40 N REJ 40 ENE CDR 30 ESE AIA 15 SE SNY 40 ESE CYS 30 NW CYS 60 SW GCC 40 SSW BIL 15 N BZN 30 SW 3DU 25 WSW S06 60 ENE 63S. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E CRE 20 NE FLO 40 WNW SOP 20 NNE GSO 20 SSE LYH 35 NNW RIC 30 SSE DOV. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW YUM 25 S P38 15 N OGD 10 NNE PIH 55 SSW 27U 35 ESE BKE 50 WSW BNO 65 SSW RDM 50 E EUG 50 ESE OLM 55 ENE BLI ...CONT... 70 NE MOT 15 ENE MHE 20 NNE CNK 25 WSW P28 10 N LBB 35 WSW ABI 20 SE GGG 10 ESE PBF 35 N TUP 35 WSW TYS 45 W MRB 20 NE ABE 10 S HYA. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER ERN PARTS OF VA/NC... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS AND NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST... ...MID-ATLANTIC INTO ERN PORTIONS OF VA/NC... UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN OVER THE ERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY ON THURSDAY. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD FROM THE UPPER OH VLY TONIGHT AND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC/SERN STATES THURSDAY AFTERNOON. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE SURFACE LOW AND FRONT SHOULD BE FARTHER SEWD THAN PREVIOUS SOLUTION...WITH EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON POSITION FROM ERN LONG ISLAND SWWD INTO DE...SRN VA AND CNTRL NC. AS A RESULT...THE SLGT RISK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SWD OUT OF SRN NEW ENGLAND/NYC/PHL/DCA AREAS. WARM SECTOR AIR MASS ALONG/SOUTH OF THE FRONT WILL REMAIN MOIST/UNSTABLE. SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE 70S AND ANTICIPATED INSOLATION SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES AOA 1000 J/KG. STRONGEST INSTABILITY WILL EXIST ACROSS ERN NC. LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND FORCING ALONG THE FRONT WILL AID IN STRENGTHENING TSTMS DURING PEAK HEATING FROM SERN VA INTO CNTRL NC. OTHER STORMS ARE APT TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SEABREEZE. MODEST INSTABILITY...INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD SUPPORT A FEW ORGANIZED TSTMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. FARTHER SW...ISOLD TSTMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THE LENGTH OF THE FRONT INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. BUT...WEAKER SHEAR AND FORCING SHOULD PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER. ...NRN HIGH PLAINS AND NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST... THERE WILL LIKELY BE TWO PRIMARY AREAS OF SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT ON THURSDAY. WEAK UPPER JETLET EJECTING FROM BASE OF AN UPSTREAM PAC NW TROUGH WILL MIGRATE NEWD THROUGH WA/ORE TODAY AND THEN ACROSS NRN ID AND NWRN MT ON THURSDAY. TAIL END OF THIS TROUGH WILL LIKELY ENHANCE DIURNALLY BASED TSTMS ACROSS MAINLY NWRN MT DURING PEAK HEATING. THESE TSTMS MAY DEVELOP SEWD ALONG THE SWRN MT HIGHER TERRAIN LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN MIGRATE NEWD INTO CNTRL MT BY THURSDAY NIGHT. VERTICAL SHEAR OF 40 KTS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AT NIGHT OVER NCNTRL OR NERN MT AS MAIN HEIGHT FALLS SPREAD INTO ALTA. OTHER TSTMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE HIGHER WY/CO TERRAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL REMAIN ESELY MAINTAINING 50S/60S DEW POINTS CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. GIVEN FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR...A FEW TSTMS WILL PRODUCE LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. WEAK MIDLEVEL IMPULSE ROTATING NEWD FROM NWRN CO MAY MAINTAIN A SMALL MCS THAT COULD MOVE INTO ADJACENT WRN NEB PNHDL AND SWRN SD THURSDAY EVENING...BUT THE SEVERE THREATS SHOULD DIMINISH WITH TIME. ..RACY.. 08/04/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 5 07:37:28 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 05 Aug 2004 02:37:28 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200408050736.i757aY902269@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 050733 SWODY2 SPC AC 050732 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0232 AM CDT THU AUG 05 2004 VALID 061200Z - 071200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S CEW 15 ENE SSI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S YUM 15 NNE P38 50 N EVW WEY 25 WSW LWS 30 E SEA 20 NNE BLI ...CONT... INL 40 W DLH 25 ESE STC 30 NNW FOD 15 SE OMA 30 NNW CNK 25 WSW P28 15 SW LTS ABI 45 SSW BWD 40 SW GLS. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE SCALE PATTERN OVER THE CONUS WILL REACH PEAK AMPLITUDE BY EARLY TOMORROW...WITH A DEEP TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND...A RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS...AND ANOTHER TROUGH OVER THE PAC NW. THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT ACROSS THE ERN CONUS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE FL PENINSULA ALONG AND S OF THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEW ENGLAND TROUGH. FARTHER W...A WEAK LEE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAKENING/EJECTING MID LEVEL TROUGH...WHILE A STRONGER UPSTREAM MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE NRN ROCKIES. THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS FROM THE CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS TO THE NRN PLAINS INVOF THE LEE TROUGH...AND SOME PORTION OF EITHER AREA MAY NEED AN UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK IN LATER OUTLOOK UPDATES. ...NRN PLAINS AREA... THE REMNANTS OF A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE PAC NW WILL EJECT EWD AND LOSE AMPLITUDE OVER THE NRN PLAINS WHILE MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN RIDGE POSITION. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE DAKOTAS AND E OF THE MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AXES RELATIVELY EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WHICH MAY TEND TO LIMIT THE SEVERE STORM THREAT. ADDITIONALLY...VEERED FLOW AND LOW-LEVEL DRYING IN THE WAKE OF THIS LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ALSO TEND TO LIMIT INSTABILITY ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN MT IN ADVANCE OF THE STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS DURING THE DAY ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WITH THE LEAD TROUGH GIVEN MODERATE INSTABILITY AND MARGINALLY FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR...BUT ONLY LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES WILL BE INCLUDED IN THIS OUTLOOK. ...CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS... AN UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME WITH PERSISTENT CONVERGENCE/ASCENT ALONG A WEAK LEE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. MID TO HIGH LEVEL FLOW WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG OVER THIS AREA...BUT DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR MAY BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS GIVEN SELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BENEATH WEAK TO MODERATE NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW. BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW-MID 60S AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY IN A NARROW CORRIDOR E OF THE LEE TROUGH...WHERE ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ..THOMPSON.. 08/05/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 5 17:39:13 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 05 Aug 2004 12:39:13 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200408051738.i75HcJ901134@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 051735 SWODY2 SPC AC 051734 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1234 PM CDT THU AUG 05 2004 VALID 061200Z - 071200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S CEW 15 ENE SSI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM INL 40 W DLH 25 ESE STC 30 NNW FOD 15 SE OMA 30 NNW CNK 25 WSW P28 15 SW LTS ABI 45 SSW BWD 40 SW GLS ...CONT... 15 S YUM 15 NNE P38 50 N EVW WEY 30 NE ALW 25 WSW DLS 40 N ONP. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... NO LARGE SCALE CHANGES EXPECTED TO THE OVERALL UPPER FLOW REGIME ON FRIDAY. DEEP COLD TROUGH ACROSS THE ERN SEABOARD WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SETTLING UNUSUALLY FAR SOUTH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...INTO NRN FL AND THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO. MEANWHILE...UPSTREAM RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES...WITH ANOTHER PROGRESSIVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE PAC NW INTO THE NRN ROCKIES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. ...NRN PLAINS... A PIECE OF THE MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES TODAY WILL TOP THE UPPER RIDGE AND INTO THE DAKS LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. A TSTM CLUSTER OR TWO MAY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD OVER THE DAKS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AND ALONG NOSE OF 35-40 KT SLY LLJ AXIS. THESE TSTMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE EWD INTO PARTS OF THE RED RIVER VLY/WRN MN BY EVENING. IN WAKE OF THE IMPULSE/TSTMS...LARGE SCALE RIDGING/WARMING ALOFT MAY TEND TO KEEP RISKS FOR SEVERE TSTMS LIMITED ACROSS THE DAKS DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. AIR MASS DOES RECOVER IN WAKE OF THESE TSTMS AND THERE WILL BE A LOW PROBABILISTIC THREAT FOR SURFACE BASED STORMS TO DEVELOP VCNTY THE LEE TROUGH CNTRL SD/ND. GIVEN A TSTM...VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE TSTMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. MOST LIKELY SCENARIO... HOWEVER...IS FOR LARGE SCALE RIDGING AND CAP TO KEEP TSTMS FROM DEVELOPING. ...NRN HIGH PLAINS/ROCKIES... HEIGHT FALLS WILL BEGIN SPREADING EWD IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING PAC NW TROUGH VERY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS WRN/CNTRL MT. LOW LEVEL AIR MASS WILL LIKELY BE DRIER THAN RECENT DAYS OVER MT OWING TO TONIGHT/S MIDLEVEL IMPULSE MOVING EAST OF THE REGION. BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS...HOWEVER...ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER IN THE 50S WITH STRONGEST INSTABILITY AXIS EXTENDING FROM CNTRL-ERN MT. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ON THE MOUNTAINS OF SWRN/WRN MT AND MIGRATE EWD TOWARD THIS INSTABILITY AXIS DURING THE EVENING. IF TSTMS CAN SURVIVE...THEY MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR LARGE HAIL...BUT UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON HOW WIDESPREAD THE THREATS MAY BE. AS SUCH...WILL NOT UPGRADE TO A SLGT RISK...BUT WILL MAINTAIN LOW PROBABILISTIC SEVERE THREATS. ...SRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS... MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE SRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS ON FRIDAY. TSTMS ARE APT TO DEVELOP ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALONG LEE-TROUGH/BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. VEERING OF THE WIND THROUGH THE TROPOSPHERE MAY AUGMENT TSTMS AND ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS. ...WRN WA... STRONG UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND PAC NW DURING THE AFTERNOON. THOUGH INSTABILITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG /MUCAPES 300-500 J/KG/ OWING TO LIMITED INSOLATION...KINEMATIC PROFILES WILL BE MODEST WITH VERTICAL SHEAR OF 30-35 KTS. SELY FLOW BENEATH STRONGER MIDLEVEL FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO 0-1KM SRH OF 150 M2/S2 AS WELL. THOUGH THREAT DOES NOT WARRANT A LOW PROBABILITY ATTM...IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT GIVEN STRONGER INSOLATION/INSTABILITY THAT A STRONGER STORM MAY PRODUCE WIND DAMAGE/HAIL OR A VERY BRIEF TORNADO. ..RACY.. 08/05/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 6 06:59:43 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 06 Aug 2004 01:59:43 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200408060658.i766wn932037@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 060656 SWODY2 SPC AC 060655 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0155 AM CDT FRI AUG 06 2004 VALID 071200Z - 081200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W RRT 55 W AXN 15 NNE YKN 30 WNW OFK 30 NW EAR 35 NNW IML 10 SW AIA 40 N CDR 25 ESE REJ 40 SSW DIK 70 NNE OLF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW CTY 50 SE JAX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW IWD 30 S LSE 15 ESE OTM 10 NE FLV 40 SSW ICT 40 SW END 45 SSE CDS 35 WNW ABI DRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 S GBN 40 NW PHX 25 SSE GCN 50 ESE PGA 15 NW CEZ 25 SE MTJ 40 SSW 4FC 15 N FCL 55 N CYS 55 S 81V 35 SSW MLS 80 NW GGW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE ACY 35 WSW ABE 40 NE ROC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW BML PSM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS NORTHERN PLAINS... A RATHER VIGOROUS MID-SUMMER TROUGH TOPS THE WRN RIDGE ON SATURDAY AS A COLD UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY EWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. A COLD FRONT PRECEED BY A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS NRN HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH ALONG CANADIAN BORDER. SLY FLOW OF MDTLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR AHEAD OF SURFACE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN FAVORABLE CONDITIONS TO SUPPORT ACTIVE CONVECTION BY AFTERNOON. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND THE COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH SUGGESTS THAT LARGE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY IN THE MOST VIGOROUS STORMS. STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS SURFACE TROUGH DURING THE EVENING WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER SYSTEM. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF AN MCS ACROSS ND/NRN SD SATURDAY NIGHT. ASSOCIATED WITH MCS FORMATION WOULD BE POTENTIAL FOR INCREASE IN WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL SATURDAY EVENING. ..HALES.. 08/06/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 6 17:27:07 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 06 Aug 2004 12:27:07 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200408061726.i76HQD911405@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 061723 SWODY2 SPC AC 061722 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1222 PM CDT FRI AUG 06 2004 VALID 071200Z - 081200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W RRT 55 W AXN 15 NNE YKN 30 WNW OFK 30 NW EAR 35 NNW IML 10 SW AIA 40 N CDR 25 ESE REJ 40 SSW DIK 70 NNE OLF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 S GBN 40 NW PHX 25 SSE GCN 50 ESE PGA 15 NW CEZ 25 SE MTJ 40 SSW 4FC 15 N FCL 55 N CYS 55 S 81V 35 SSW MLS 80 NW GGW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW IWD 30 S LSE 15 ESE OTM 10 NE FLV 40 SSW ICT 40 SW END 45 SSE CDS 35 WNW ABI DRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW CTY 50 SE JAX. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS STATES... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE ON SATURDAY. COLD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST IS EXPECTED TO EJECT NEWD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND WHILE THE UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE NWRN STATES DEAMPLIFIES AND MOVES TO THE NRN PLAINS BY SATURDAY NIGHT. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE ERN TROUGH WILL REMAIN UNUSUALLY FAR SOUTH FOR AUGUST...SITUATED FROM CNTRL FL INTO THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO. LEE-TROUGH WILL REDEVELOP EWD INTO THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS SATURDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING PAC NW TROUGH AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE TSTMS. ...NRN/CNTRL PLAINS... AS UPSTREAM MIDLEVEL IMPULSE TRANSLATES INTO ERN MT SATURDAY AFTERNOON...LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL SPREAD ONTO THE NRN PLAINS. COMBINATION OF WEAK CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE DAKOTAS AND STRENGTHENING LEE-TROUGH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN TSTM INITIATION FROM WRN ND INTO CNTRL SD SATURDAY AFTERNOON. DEW POINTS AOA 60F BENEATH STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES SPREADING EWD FROM THE CNTRL ROCKIES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AFTERNOON MLCAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG. GIVEN APPROACH OF 45-55 KT H5 JET ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH...VERTICAL SHEAR WILL INCREASE TO 30-35 KTS. STRONG INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH THESE SHEAR VALUES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL...ESPECIALLY WITH THE INITIAL DEVELOPMENT. LATER IN THE EVENING...ACTIVITY SHOULD CONGEAL INTO ONE OR MORE MCS/S AND TRACK ESEWD TOWARD ERN SD/ND...WRN MN AND PERHAPS NERN NEB. PROBABILITIES FOR DAMAGING WINDS WILL INCREASE IN THE EVENING. FARTHER S...ISOLD TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THE LENGTH OF THE LEE- TROUGH SWD INTO CNTRL NEB...WRN KS AND THE OK/TX PNHDLS. SLY FLOW OF 10-15 KTS BENEATH INCREASING NNWLY MIDLEVEL FLOW WILL AUGMENT VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES SUCH THAT GIVEN A TSTM...SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...SINCE STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS MOVE THROUGH THE NRN HIGH PLAINS...LARGE SCALE SUPPORT WILL BE MUCH WEAKER OVER THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS. AS A RESULT... ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE ISOLD. LATER OUTLOOKS MAY NEED TO EXTEND THE SLGT RISK FARTHER S IF SEVERE THREAT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE GREATER. ..RACY.. 08/06/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 7 06:58:25 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 07 Aug 2004 01:58:25 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200408070657.i776vX923145@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 070655 SWODY2 SPC AC 070654 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0154 AM CDT SAT AUG 07 2004 VALID 081200Z - 091200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 E MQT 25 SSE OSH 35 WNW PIA 40 S IRK 10 W CNU 35 ENE GAG 35 SSW EHA 30 W HLC 30 WSW SPW 30 SW BRD INL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSW TUS 50 N TUS 50 SW SOW 45 SW GUP 15 SW GUP 50 NE DRO 35 ENE ASE 20 SW FCL 45 WNW AKO 45 SE AIA 30 NE VTN 35 SW ABR 30 SSE JMS 35 NW JMS 55 WNW MOT 80 NE ISN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW APN 10 SW GRR 30 NW SLO 30 SSE VIH 25 NNE FYV 40 ESE OKC 45 S LTS 30 N ABI 35 S SEP 35 ESE ACT 30 NW LFT 50 NW GPT 25 W DHN 30 E SSI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E BOS 15 NW EFK. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL PLAINS NEWD INTO UPPER MS VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... RIDGING OVER THE WRN U.S. ALLOWS TROUGH TO DIG SEWD FROM NRN PLAINS INTO UPPER MS VALLEY AND WRN GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. INCREASING NWLY FLOW WILL SPREAD EWD ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. PRIMARY SURFACE LOW MOVES EWD UNDER UPPER TROUGH ALONG MN/CANADIAN BORDER WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRAILING SWWD TO CENTRAL ROCKIES. A SECONDARY LEE LOW WRN KS AHEAD OF TROUGH WILL BE SUPPRESSED SWD DURING THE PERIOD AS COLD FRONT MOVES SWD THRU HIGH PLAINS. STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SPREAD EWD AHEAD OF COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS AND TO A LESSER EXTENT UPPER MS VALLEY. THIS WILL ENHANCE THE INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT WILL BE IN PLACE FROM SRN HIGH PLAINS NEWD ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS INTO UPPER MS VALLEY. ... UPPER MS VALLEY/WRN GREAT LAKES... MDTLY UNSTABLE AIR WILL BE AVAILABLE TO SUPPORT ACTIVE CONVECTION ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH THIS AREA. LIMITING FACTOR FOR SEVERE WILL BE MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR AS LOWER LEVEL WINDS WILL BE RATHER WEAK WITH SFC-6KM SHEAR GENERALLY LESS THAN 30KT. MLCAPES TO 1500 J/KG COUPLED WITH THE 7-8C/KM LAPSE RATES SUFFICIENT FOR A LARGE HAIL THREAT ALONG WITH LESSER DAMAGING WIND CONCERN. ...CENTRAL PLAINS... MORE ACTIVE SEVERE THREAT IS POSSIBLE THIS AREA WHERE LAPSE RATES WILL BE 8C/KM OR GREATER AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR MORE PRONOUNCED UNDER INCREASING NWLY FLOW. MLCAPES AHEAD OF FRONT WILL CLIMB TO ABOVE 2000 J/KG WHICH WHEN COUPLED WITH THE SHEAR AND LAPSE RATES WILL PROVIDE INGREDIENTS FOR SEVERE STORMS. ETA SUGGESTS AN MCS WILL POSSIBLY DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT CENTRAL NEB THEN DROP SWD ACROSS KS THRU INSTABILITY AXIS DURING AFTERNOON/EVENING. SHEAR PROFILES FAVOR SUPERCELL FORMATION WHICH WILL ENHANCE PRIMARILY LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE MORE LIKELY IF A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS CAN DEVELOP AND MOVE SWD INTO THE INSTABILITY AXIS. ..HALES.. 08/07/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 7 16:51:12 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 07 Aug 2004 11:51:12 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200408071650.i77GoK900996@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 071648 SWODY2 SPC AC 071647 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1147 AM CDT SAT AUG 07 2004 VALID 081200Z - 091200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 E MQT 25 SSE OSH 35 WNW PIA 40 S IRK 10 W CNU 35 ENE GAG 35 SSW EHA 35 WNW HLC 45 WNW OLU 55 N AXN 65 NNW TVF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSW TUS 50 N TUS 50 SW SOW 45 SW GUP 15 SW GUP 50 NE DRO 35 ENE ASE 20 SW FCL 45 WNW AKO 45 SE AIA 30 NE VTN 35 SW ABR 30 SSE JMS 35 NW JMS 55 WNW MOT 80 NE ISN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E BOS 15 NW EFK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW APN 10 SW GRR 30 NW SLO 30 SSE VIH 25 NNE FYV 40 ESE OKC 45 S LTS 30 N ABI 35 S SEP 35 ESE ACT 30 NW LFT 50 NW GPT 25 W DHN 30 E SSI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER MS VLY TO THE CNTRL PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... STRONG MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW CROSSING INTO THE NRN PLAINS WILL TRANSLATE EWD INTO THE UPPER MS VLY REGION SUNDAY. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL SLOWLY TRACK FROM ERN ND EARLY SUNDAY TO NRN MN/NWRN ONTARIO BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. S OF THE LOW...A FRONT WILL SWEEP SEWD...REACHING A POSITION FROM NWRN WI-CNTRL IA-SRN HIGH PLAINS BY LATE SUNDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SEVERE TSTMS. ...UPPER MS VLY TO THE CNTRL PLAINS... FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO WRN MN EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL ADVECT MID-UPPER 60S DEW POINTS NWD INTO THE UPPER MS VLY. AS LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT SPREADS EWD...INHIBITION WILL WEAKEN AND TSTMS SHOULD INITIATE ALONG THE FRONT EARLY AFTERNOON SUNDAY. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON HOW OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEBRIS WILL MODULATE INSOLATION/DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BUT...ANY ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT WILL SPREAD INTO THE UPPER MS VLY BY SUNDAY EVENING. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...20-30 KTS...BUT GIVEN STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND H5 SIXTY METER HEIGHT FALLS...A FEW TSTMS ARE APT TO BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR HAIL. FARTHER SOUTH FROM IA INTO KS...WARM SECTOR IS EXPECTED TO BE MUCH MORE UNSTABLE. FULL INSOLATION IS EXPECTED TO DESTABILIZE THE BOUNDARY LAYER CHARACTERIZED BY TEMPERATURES NEAR 90F AND DEW POINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AFTERNOON SBCAPES 2000-2500 J/KG JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. COMBO OF CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND HEATING SHOULD ERODE THE CAP AND TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER IA/ERN NEB AND BACKBUILD SWWD INTO NRN KS BY MID AFTERNOON. THOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE AOB 30 KTS...STRONG INSTABILITY WILL PROBABLY BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE ESEWD INTO ERN IA...NRN MO AND CNTRL-SRN KS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT THE SEVERE THREATS SHOULD DIMINISH WITH TIME. PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS HAVE REFLECTED A HIGHER PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE IN THE MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS. ..RACY.. 08/07/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 8 07:34:38 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 08 Aug 2004 02:34:38 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200408080733.i787Xk913607@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 080731 SWODY2 SPC AC 080731 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0231 AM CDT SUN AUG 08 2004 VALID 091200Z - 101200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE TAD 25 WNW COS 20 WNW CYS 35 WSW BFF 45 SE SNY 45 SE GLD 25 SSW GCK 20 SW EHA 15 ESE TAD. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ENE CLE 30 ENE DAY 15 SW DNV 10 NNE MMO 40 NE MKG 10 E OSC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW HVR 65 ESE LWT 35 SW RAP BUB 30 ENE HLC 30 NNW HUT 40 E STJ 30 NW BRL 15 NNW JVL 35 NNE GRB 20 SW IWD 25 SSW BJI 10 W RRT ...CONT... 50 W ART 40 E BFD 35 SSE LBE 15 NNW CRW 15 NNE LEX 20 WSW BWG 20 NW DYR 30 E LIT 30 NE MLU 60 E LUL 20 NW DHN 30 NE VLD 10 NNE DAB ...CONT... 20 SE CRP 15 ENE NIR 35 NNW VCT 20 SE CLL 20 SSE TYR 45 SW PRX 20 NE MWL 15 WNW BWD 50 SW JCT 40 SE DRT ...CONT... CZZ 30 W BLH 50 SW PRC 50 NNE SOW 40 SE DRO 30 W 4FC 35 WSW CPR 30 NNE MQM 25 S S06 30 NNE 63S. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE CNTRL HI PLNS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE MIDWEST... ...SYNOPSIS... BROAD CYCLONIC PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF CANADA AND THE NERN U.S. THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHILE RIDGE HOLDS FIRM FROM THE SWRN DESERTS INTO BC/YUKON. LEAD IMPULSE IN CYCLONIC JET...NOW ENTERING WRN ND...SHOULD REACH NRN MN BY 12Z MONDAY AND CONTINUE E TO NEAR SSM BY 12Z TUESDAY. UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE...NOW OVER NW AB...EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY AS IT DROPS SE INTO SRN SASKATCHEWAN/MB. SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD SHORTWAVE SHOULD TRACK E ACROSS LK SUPERIOR ON MONDAY AS OCCLUDED/COLD FRONT SWEEPS SE ACROSS THE UPR MIDWEST/OH VLY. WRN PART OF SAME BOUNDARY SHOULD BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY FROM SE WY/ERN CO INTO SRN KS. ...CNTRL HI PLNS... WEAK...FAIRLY MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CNTRL HI PLNS ON MONDAY INVOF STALLING COLD FRONT...BENEATH 25-30 KT NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW ON ERN PERIPHERY OF WRN U.S. RIDGE. COUPLED WITH STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SETUP SHOULD SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SUSTAINED STORMS/SUPERCELLS ALONG AND JUST E OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...DESPITE ABSENCE OF AN IDENTIFIABLE SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE. HAIL AND HIGH WIND COULD ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS AS MLCAPE RISES TO AROUND 1500 J/KG. THIS ACTIVITY MAY CONSOLIDATE INTO A SMALL CLUSTER OR TWO...AND EXTEND A LIMITED THREAT FOR SEVERE S/SE TOWARD NE NM AND THE OK/TX PANHANDLE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. ...LWR MI INTO IL/IND/OH... A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL EXIST ALONG AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT CROSSING PARTS OF THE MIDWEST ON MONDAY...WHERE AMPLE /35-40 KT/ DEEP WLY SHEAR WILL EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL...HOWEVER...LIKELY REMAIN LIMITED AS A RESULT OF RECENT COOL AIR INVASION OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE SAME TIME... FLOW PATTERN SUGGESTS THAT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL PROBABLY BE FAIRLY WEAK /AROUND 6.5 DEG C PER KM/. NEVERTHELESS...ASSUMING AT LEAST MODEST SURFACE HEATING...RESULTING LOW LEVEL DESTABILIZATION MAY PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STORMS WITH HIGH WIND GIVEN STRENGTH OF DEEP SHEAR AND SUSTAINED FRONTAL CONVERGENCE. ..CORFIDI.. 08/08/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 8 17:05:53 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 08 Aug 2004 12:05:53 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200408081705.i78H51918657@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 081700 SWODY2 SPC AC 081659 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1159 AM CDT SUN AUG 08 2004 VALID 091200Z - 101200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE TAD 25 WNW COS 20 WNW CYS 35 WSW BFF 45 SE SNY 45 SE GLD 25 SSW GCK 20 SW EHA 15 ESE TAD. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ENE CLE 30 ENE DAY 15 SW DNV 10 NNE MMO 40 NE MKG 10 E OSC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CZZ 30 W BLH 50 SW PRC 50 NNE SOW 40 SE DRO 30 W 4FC 35 WSW CPR 30 NNE MQM 25 S S06 30 NNE 63S ...CONT... 35 NNW HVR 65 ESE LWT 35 SW RAP BUB 15 SW HSI 20 WSW FNB 15 WSW P35 30 NW BRL 15 NNW JVL 35 NNE GRB 20 SW IWD 25 SSW BJI 10 W RRT ...CONT... 50 W ART 40 E BFD 35 SSE LBE 15 NNW CRW 15 NNE LEX 20 WSW BWG 20 NW DYR 30 E LIT 30 NE MLU 60 E LUL 20 NW DHN 30 NE VLD 10 NNE DAB ...CONT... 20 SE CRP 15 ENE NIR 35 NNW VCT 20 SE CLL 20 SSE TYR 45 SW PRX 20 NE MWL 15 WNW BWD 50 SW JCT 40 SE DRT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CNTRL HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MIDWEST/CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION... ...SYNOPSIS... PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WILL UNDERGO SLIGHT DEEPENING ON MONDAY AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS DIG SEWD FROM SRN CANADA. WRN STATES UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY NWD INTO WRN CANADA. THE STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH SITUATED ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS WILL TRANSLATE EWD TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY MONDAY NIGHT. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EWD INTO LOWER MI...SWD THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS AND WWD INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. PORTIONS OF THIS FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE TSTMS. ...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS... ELY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL DEEPEN ON MONDAY ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS AS SURFACE PRESSURES RISE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. THIS WILL ADVECT/MAINTAIN AT LEAST LOW-MID 50S DEW POINTS BACK TO THE FRONT RANGE. HEATING AND STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR TSTMS TO DEVELOP HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. THOUGH UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE WEAK...ELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BENEATH 30-40 KT NWLY H5 FLOW WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO. ACTIVITY SHOULD CONGEAL INTO ONE OR MORE TSTM CLUSTERS AND MOVE TOWARD WRN KS AND THE TX/OK PNHDLS MONDAY NIGHT. ...UPPER MIDWEST/CNTRL GREAT LAKES... AS 30-60 METER H5 HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG NRN PLAINS SHORTWAVE TROUGH SPREAD EWD...TSTMS ARE APT TO DEVELOP ALONG EWD MOVING COLD FRONT. LIMITING FACTORS FOR SEVERE TSTMS INCLUDE POSSIBLE CLOUDS/LACK OF INSOLATION AND POOR MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES. INCREASING UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW REGIME THROUGH THE TROPOSPHERE...HOWEVER...WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SHORT LINES OF TSTMS THAT MAY GIVE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR OVER SRN LOWER MI...NWRN OH AND NRN IND. ..RACY.. 08/08/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 9 07:10:48 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 09 Aug 2004 02:10:48 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200408090710.i797AE901616@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 090707 SWODY2 SPC AC 090706 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0206 AM CDT MON AUG 09 2004 VALID 101200Z - 111200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW TCC 25 W TAD 40 WNW FCL 15 SE CYS 30 SSW GLD 10 NNE SGF 20 E FSM 20 S CDS 30 SSW TCC. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW ART UCA 15 NNE ABE 25 W HGR 25 SE PIT 35 NNE BUF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N FCA 40 N 3DU 45 ENE S80 40 WNW ALW 50 SW RDM 20 NE EUG 40 SSE OLM 35 ENE BLI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE DRT 30 SSE JCT 45 NNE CLL 35 NNW GGG 20 SSW ADM 50 NNW BGS 40 WSW INK 50 SW MRF ...CONT... SAN 20 ESE EED 30 W GNT 25 SE GUC 45 SSW RWL 10 NE JAC LVM 20 W 4BQ 20 N AIA 30 ENE MCK FLV 15 NW SLO LUK 20 W YNG 70 N ERI ...CONT... 35 ESE ECG 20 W RWI 20 ESE CLT 40 ENE MCN 45 NE MGR 10 NE JAX. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL AND SRN PLNS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE ERN GRT LKS/NRN APLCNS... ...SYNOPSIS... WRN RIDGE/ERN TROUGH PATTERN EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY ON TUESDAY AS IMPULSE NOW OVER AB DEEPENS AND CONTINUES SE FROM ND INTO MN AND WI. AT THE SAME TIME...LEAD IMPULSE NOW OVER MN EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT LIFTS NE INTO ERN ONTARIO/WRN QUEBEC. AMPLIFYING AB SYSTEM WILL USHER A NEW SURGE OF POLAR AIR INTO THE N CNTRL U.S...AND REINFORCE EXISTING COLD FRONT LIKELY TO EXTEND AT THE START OF THE PERIOD FROM LWR MI ACROSS THE MID MS VLY TO THE CNTRL HI PLNS. THE FRONT SHOULD ACCELERATE S/SE LATER TUESDAY...AND REACH A W TX/WRN KY/NW PA LINE BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. ...CNTRL/SRN PLNS... WNWLY MID LEVEL FLOW DOWNSTREAM FROM WRN STATES RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN TO BETWEEN 30 AND 35 KTS ACROSS THE CNTRL PLNS ON TUESDAY AS AB UPPER IMPULSE MOVES SE ACROSS ND/MN. THIS WILL MAINTAIN STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE PLUME ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS CO/KS...AND BOOST DEEP NWLY SHEAR TO AOA 40 KTS. COMBINATION OF SURFACE HEATING...MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE INFLOW AND CONVERGENCE ALONG COLD FRONT AND/OR OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM DAY ONE CONVECTION SHOULD SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF DIURNALLY ENHANCED STORMS OVER SE CO/ WRN AND SRN KS/NRN AND WRN OK AND THE TX PANHANDLE. POTENTIAL WILL ALSO EXIST FOR ELEVATED POST FRONTAL STORMS NWD/WWD INTO PARTS OF NEB AND NE CO AS SHALLOW COOL AIR MASS SURGES SWD BENEATH PERSISTENT WNW FLOW ALOFT. GIVEN LIKELIHOOD FOR SUSTAINED STORMS/SUPERCELLS...A THREAT WILL EXIST FOR LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND FROM SURFACE-BASED STORMS ALONG AND S OF FRONT. HAIL MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY POST FRONTAL CELLS IN NE CO AND KS. SOME OF THE SRN KS/OK/TX PANHANDLE ACTIVITY MAY EVOLVE INTO ONE OR TWO LARGE CLUSTERS THAT MOVE MAINLY S/SE AHEAD OF THE FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. ...ERN GRT LKS/NRN APLCNS... BAND OF MODERATE /30 TO 40 KT/ WLY FLOW ROUNDING BASE OF UPPER IMPULSE NOW IN MN WILL OVERSPREAD THE UPR OH VLY/NRN APLCNS ON TUESDAY. WITH MAIN UPPER VORT EXPECTED TO LIFT NEWD INTO ONTARIO/QUEBEC...LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE WEAK OVER THE NERN U.S. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALSO BE WEAK /AROUND 6.5 DEG C PER KM/. BUT SURFACE HEATING AND LINGERING CONVERGENCE ALONG ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT/PREFRONTAL TROUGH MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A FEW STRONG AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS GIVEN 25-30 KT DEEP WSWLY SHEAR AND MLCAPE APPROACHING 1000 J/KG. ..CORFIDI.. 08/09/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 9 17:28:40 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 09 Aug 2004 12:28:40 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200408091727.i79HRn918566@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 091726 SWODY2 SPC AC 091725 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1225 PM CDT MON AUG 09 2004 VALID 101200Z - 111200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CVS RTN FCL 25 NE LAR 55 SSE DGW BFF SNY 25 S IML HLC RSL ICT TUL MLC ADM SPS PVW CVS. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MSS 40 ENE UCA MSV ABE HGR MGW PIT FKL 40 N BUF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM WAL RIC DAN SPA 35 SSE AND AGS 40 E SAV ...CONT... 45 NW LRD HDO TPL TYR PRX ELP ...CONT... 20 W CZZ 30 SSE RAL RAL 30 S DAG EED INW ABQ SAF ALS RWL JAC 27U GEG 35 E EPH RDM 60 SE EUG 20 NE EUG 45 ENE BLI ...CONT... 45 NW CTB CTB GTF 3HT BIL SHR CDR LBF TOP OJC VIH MDH EVV LUK 40 SE DTW. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SERN WY...ERN CO...PORTIONS WRN/SRN KS...CENTRAL/WRN OK...OK/TX PANHANDLES...NERN NM... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL/WRN NY AND MUCH OF PA... ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NRN CONUS...AMIDST LARGER SCALE WAVE TRAIN CONTAINING WRN RIDGE AND GREAT LAKES TROUGH. UPPER LOW -- NOW EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AND VWP WINDS OVER MN/ONT BORDER REGION -- IS FCST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS LS AND OVER ADJACENT PORTIONS ONT BY 10/12Z...THEN WEAKEN AS IT APCHS NRN ONT/QUE BORDER. UPSTREAM PERTURBATION -- NOW TAKING SHAPE OVER W-CENTRAL SASK -- WILL DIG SEWD INTO LONGWAVE TROUGH...BECOME CLOSED LOW...AND EFFECTIVELY REPLACE PRESENT CYCLONE ACROSS LS/UPPER MI REGION. SFC COLD FRONT -- NOW EXTENDING FROM WI SWWD ACROSS IA TO NRN KS AND ERN CO -- WILL BE REINFORCED BY ANOTHER AREA OF BOUNDARY LAYER CAA ASSOCIATED WITH SECOND MIDLEVEL TROUGH. RESULTING BAROCLINIC ZONE SHOULD SHIFT SLOWLY SWD ACROSS KS...NRN OK AND PORTIONS OK/TX PANHANDLES THROUGH PERIOD. MEANWHILE ERN PORTION OF FRONT SHOULD MOVE EWD ACROSS ERN GREAT LAKES AND MID/UPPER OH VALLEY REGIONS...AS PARENT LOW OCCLUDES AND LIFTS NEWD OVER NERN ONT AND WRN QUE. ...SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS... SEVERE TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS ERN CO AND WRN KS...AND PERHAPS OVER CYS RIDGE AND RATON MESA AREAS AS WELL. LARGE/DAMAGING HAIL IS POSSIBLE GIVEN EXPECTED FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES FOR SUPERCELLS...STRONG BUOYANCY AND STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES. WNW TO NW MIDLEVEL FLOW IS PROGGED ACROSS THIS REGION BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON...RANGING FROM AROUND 30 KT SERN CO TO 40 KT SERN WY. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL FLOW IS FCST TO BE RELATIVELY WEAK...STRONG DIRECTIONAL TURING WITH HEIGHT SHOULD OCCUR NEAR AND N OF SFC FRONT. THIS ALSO WILL AID UPSLOPE MOISTURE ADVECTION AND ASCENT...COMBINING WITH INSOLATION TO WEAKEN CAP. RESULTANT MLCAPES ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED 2000 J/KG BETWEEN CYS-CAO...AND MAY EXCEED 3000 J/KG PORTIONS WRN KS. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STRONGLY DEVIANT MOTIONS FOR EARLY/DISCRETE SUPERCELLS -- TOWARD SSE OR S. RESULTANT STORM-RELATIVE FLOW FIELDS SUGGEST SOME TORNADO POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...HIGH LCL AND DEEP MIXED LAYERS ALONG AND S OF FRONT SUPPORT MORE OF AN ORGANIZED DAMAGING WIND EVENT BEGINNING LATE AFTERNOON OVER ERN CO/WRN KS REGION AND SPREADING SSEWD TO SEWD DURING EVENING. ...NERN CONUS... WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP WITHIN ABOUT 150 NM AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT DURING DAY -- AS DIABATIC HEATING OF BOUNDARY LAYER WEAKENS CAP AND SUBTLE CONVERGENCE AIDS IN INITIATION. SFC DEW POINTS MID 50S - MID 60S F WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES RANGING FROM 1000-2000 J/KG MOST AREAS. WHERE CLOUD COVER IS MINIMIZED -- ALLOWING STRONGEST DIABATIC HEATING -- WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYERS SHOULD DEVELOP AND SUPPORT STRONG-SEVERE GUST POTENTIAL. FROM PA NEWD ACROSS WRN NY...WARM-SECTOR KINEMATIC FIELDS WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY ABOUT 45-55 KT 500 MB FLOW AND NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL VERTICAL WIND PROFILES THROUGH TROPOSPHERE. 40-50 KT SHEAR PROGGED THROUGH 0-6 KM LAYER...AND PREFRONTAL 0-3 KM SRH IN 150-250 J/KG RANGE...EACH INDICATES SOME SUPERCELL POTENTIAL FOR DISCRETE CELLS. HOWEVER LINEAR/SEGMENTED MODE IS FAVORED IN THIS PROFILE WITH POTENTIAL FOR BOWS/LEWPS. THEREFORE MAIN THREAT SHOULD BE DAMAGING WIND...WITH MORE CONDITIONAL/ISOLATED POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES. MAIN CAVEATS ATTM ARE LACK OF STRONGER LOW LEVEL FORCING -- GIVEN ONLY MINOR/GRADUAL WIND SHIFT ACROSS FRONTAL ZONE -- AND RELATIVELY WEAK MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES LIMITING BUOYANCY. ..EDWARDS.. 08/09/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 9 17:38:02 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 09 Aug 2004 12:38:02 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200408091737.i79HbG922939@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 091734 SWODY2 SPC AC 091733 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1233 PM CDT MON AUG 09 2004 VALID 101200Z - 111200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CVS RTN FCL 25 NE LAR 55 SSE DGW BFF SNY 25 S IML HLC RSL ICT TUL MLC ADM SPS PVW CVS. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MSS 40 ENE UCA MSV ABE HGR MGW PIT FKL 40 N BUF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM WAL RIC DAN SPA 35 SSE AND AGS 40 E SAV ...CONT... 45 NW LRD HDO TPL TYR PRX ELP ...CONT... 20 W CZZ 30 SSE RAL RAL 30 S DAG EED INW ABQ SAF ALS RWL JAC 27U GEG 35 E EPH RDM 60 SE EUG 20 NE EUG 45 ENE BLI ...CONT... 45 NW CTB CTB GTF 3HT BIL SHR CDR LBF TOP OJC VIH MDH EVV LUK 40 SE DTW. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SERN WY...ERN CO...PORTIONS WRN/SRN KS...CENTRAL/WRN OK...OK/TX PANHANDLES...NERN NM... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL/WRN NY AND MUCH OF PA... ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NRN CONUS...AMIDST LARGER SCALE WAVE TRAIN CONTAINING WRN RIDGE AND GREAT LAKES TROUGH. UPPER LOW -- NOW EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AND VWP WINDS OVER MN/ONT BORDER REGION -- IS FCST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS LS AND OVER ADJACENT PORTIONS ONT BY 10/12Z...THEN WEAKEN AS IT APCHS NRN ONT/QUE BORDER. UPSTREAM PERTURBATION -- NOW TAKING SHAPE OVER W-CENTRAL SASK -- WILL DIG SEWD INTO LONGWAVE TROUGH...BECOME CLOSED LOW...AND EFFECTIVELY REPLACE PRESENT CYCLONE ACROSS LS/UPPER MI REGION. SFC COLD FRONT -- NOW EXTENDING FROM WI SWWD ACROSS IA TO NRN KS AND ERN CO -- WILL BE REINFORCED BY ANOTHER AREA OF BOUNDARY LAYER CAA ASSOCIATED WITH SECOND MIDLEVEL TROUGH. RESULTING BAROCLINIC ZONE SHOULD SHIFT SLOWLY SWD ACROSS KS...NRN OK AND PORTIONS OK/TX PANHANDLES THROUGH PERIOD. MEANWHILE ERN PORTION OF FRONT SHOULD MOVE EWD ACROSS ERN GREAT LAKES AND MID/UPPER OH VALLEY REGIONS...AS PARENT LOW OCCLUDES AND LIFTS NEWD OVER NERN ONT AND WRN QUE. ...SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS... SEVERE TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS ERN CO AND WRN KS...AND PERHAPS OVER CYS RIDGE AND RATON MESA AREAS AS WELL. LARGE/DAMAGING HAIL IS POSSIBLE GIVEN EXPECTED FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES FOR SUPERCELLS...STRONG BUOYANCY AND STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES. WNW TO NW MIDLEVEL FLOW IS PROGGED ACROSS THIS REGION BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON...RANGING FROM AROUND 30 KT SERN CO TO 40 KT SERN WY. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL FLOW IS FCST TO BE RELATIVELY WEAK...STRONG DIRECTIONAL TURING WITH HEIGHT SHOULD OCCUR NEAR AND N OF SFC FRONT. THIS ALSO WILL AID UPSLOPE MOISTURE ADVECTION AND ASCENT...COMBINING WITH INSOLATION TO WEAKEN CAP. RESULTANT MLCAPES ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED 2000 J/KG BETWEEN CYS-CAO...AND MAY EXCEED 3000 J/KG PORTIONS WRN KS. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STRONGLY DEVIANT MOTIONS FOR EARLY/DISCRETE SUPERCELLS -- TOWARD SSE OR S. RESULTANT STORM-RELATIVE FLOW FIELDS SUGGEST SOME TORNADO POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...HIGH LCL AND DEEP MIXED LAYERS ALONG AND S OF FRONT SUPPORT MORE OF AN ORGANIZED DAMAGING WIND EVENT BEGINNING LATE AFTERNOON OVER ERN CO/WRN KS REGION AND SPREADING SSEWD TO SEWD DURING EVENING. ...NERN CONUS... WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP WITHIN ABOUT 150 NM AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT DURING DAY -- AS DIABATIC HEATING OF BOUNDARY LAYER WEAKENS CAP AND SUBTLE CONVERGENCE AIDS IN INITIATION. SFC DEW POINTS MID 50S - MID 60S F WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES RANGING FROM 1000-2000 J/KG MOST AREAS. WHERE CLOUD COVER IS MINIMIZED -- ALLOWING STRONGEST DIABATIC HEATING -- WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYERS SHOULD DEVELOP AND SUPPORT STRONG-SEVERE GUST POTENTIAL. FROM PA NEWD ACROSS WRN NY...WARM-SECTOR KINEMATIC FIELDS WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY ABOUT 45-55 KT 500 MB FLOW AND NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL VERTICAL WIND PROFILES THROUGH TROPOSPHERE. 40-50 KT SHEAR PROGGED THROUGH 0-6 KM LAYER...AND PREFRONTAL 0-3 KM SRH IN 150-250 J/KG RANGE...EACH INDICATES SOME SUPERCELL POTENTIAL FOR DISCRETE CELLS. HOWEVER LINEAR/SEGMENTED MODE IS FAVORED IN THIS PROFILE WITH POTENTIAL FOR BOWS/LEWPS. THEREFORE MAIN THREAT SHOULD BE DAMAGING WIND...WITH MORE CONDITIONAL/ISOLATED POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES. MAIN CAVEATS ATTM ARE LACK OF STRONGER LOW LEVEL FORCING -- GIVEN ONLY MINOR/GRADUAL WIND SHIFT ACROSS FRONTAL ZONE -- AND RELATIVELY WEAK MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES LIMITING BUOYANCY. ..EDWARDS.. 08/09/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 11 07:32:38 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 11 Aug 2004 02:32:38 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200408110731.i7B7VsV18214@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 110729 SWODY2 SPC AC 110728 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0228 AM CDT WED AUG 11 2004 VALID 121200Z - 131200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S DMN 10 SW ONM 30 NNW ALS 20 SSW COS 50 N CAO 30 NNW HOB 20 SSE P07. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE CEW 15 NE LGC 15 NNW AND 20 SSE ROA 30 ESE MRB 20 NNW PHL 15 SSE NEL ...CONT... 20 NE JAX 60 NNW PIE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NW MRY 50 W RBL 25 NE 4BK 25 ENE ONP 45 N PDX 35 E DLS 55 SW BNO RNO 35 ESE BIH LAS 40 NNW GCN 35 N SOW 10 NE GNT 10 NE EGE 25 SSE CYS 45 SE GLD 25 E LBL 10 SE AMA LBB 50 WSW SJT 45 NW SAT 30 NNW CLL 30 SSW HEZ GAD 20 NE 5I3 35 NNW LBE 25 NNW PBG. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF NM...SRN CO AND FAR W TX... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NW FL AND GA NEWD TO THE MID ATLANTIC CST... ...SYNOPSIS... HIGHLY AMPLIFIED WRN RIDGE/ERN TROUGH PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER NOAM ON THURSDAY AS SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW OVER WRN MANITOBA DEEPENS AND CONTINUES S/SE INTO THE MID MS VLY...AND TROUGH NOW OVER IA/WI LIFTS NE INTO QUEBEC. THE RESULT WILL BE A VERY UNUSUAL /FOR AUGUST/ FULL LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE E CNTRL U.S. BY EARLY FRIDAY. AT LOWER LEVELS...MAIN COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH IA SHORTWAVE SHOULD EXTEND ALONG THE ERN SLOPES OF THE APLCNS EARLY THURSDAY. THE BOUNDARY WILL PROBABLY REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE PERIOD AS SHARPENING OF LARGE SCALE TROUGH BACKS MEAN FLOW TO S/SWLY ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD. ELSEWHERE...WRN EDGE OF LOW LEVEL COOL AIR MASS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH EXPECTED TO BACK-DOOR SW ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN RCKYS. ..SRN RCKYS AND ADJACENT HI PLNS... STRONG SURGE OF POLAR AIR INTO THE CNTRL/SRN PLNS EXPECTED TO SHUNT EFFECTIVE MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AXIS WELL W INTO NM AND S CNTRL CO BY THURSDAY...DESPITE MORE EWD DEPICTION ACROSS THE SRN HI PLNS IN THE GFS. COMBINATION OF STRONG DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND UPSLOPE FLOW WITHIN RESIDUAL AXIS OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD LEAD TO AFTN/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NM/S CNTRL CO MTNS. STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 40 KT DEEP NWLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH MODERATE /30 KT/ NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW SUSTAINED STORMS/SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL/HIGH WIND AND PERHAPS A TORNADO. SETUP SHOULD FAVOR CONSOLIDATION INTO ONE OR TWO SWD-MOVING CLUSTERS THURSDAY NIGHT. ...FL PNHDL/GA NEWD TO MID ATLANTIC CST... VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ENVIRONMENT /DEWPOINTS AOA 70F/ WILL BE PRESENT ALONG AND E OF STALLING FRONT OVER THE E SLOPES OF THE SRN AND CNTRL APLCNS. THIS WILL COMPENSATE FOR WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO SUPPORT DIURNALLY ENHANCED STORMS OVER THE PIEDMONT/CSTL PLNS FROM GA NEWD INTO THE DELMARVA REGION. LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT MAY INCREASE WITH TIME AS JET ENTRANCE REGION DEVELOPS ALOFT ON ERN SIDE OF AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH. FARTHER S...REMNANT CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH T.S. BONNIE WILL ENHANCE LOW LEVEL SHEAR/MEAN FLOW OVER THE FL PNHDL AND SRN GA. MODERATE TO SEASONABLY STRONG /35-40 KT/ DEEP SWLY SHEAR THROUGHOUT REGION WILL SUPPORT CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION INTO BANDS WITH POSSIBLE BOWING SEGMENTS. STRONGER CONVERGENCE/BACKED FLOW INVOF ANY WEAK FRONTAL WAVES...AND INVOF BONNIE...MAY ALSO SUPPORT LOW LEVEL STORM ROTATION AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT GIVEN HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE CONTENT. ..CORFIDI.. 08/11/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 11 17:35:49 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 11 Aug 2004 12:35:49 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200408111735.i7BHZ1V01536@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 111732 SWODY2 SPC AC 111731 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1231 PM CDT WED AUG 11 2004 VALID 121200Z - 131200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WSW PFN MCN CLT GSO 45 SW DCA 35 E CXY TTN 35 E NEL ...CONT... 35 SSE SSI 55 S CTY. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W ELP 35 ENE TCS 35 E ABQ 35 N LVS RTN TAD COS 30 W LIC 35 SE LIC LAA LBL 65 NNE AMA AMA CVS HOB 40 S P07. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CZZ RAL 35 NNE SBA PRB SJC 45 ESE EKA 40 SE OTH EUG SLE PDX 40 ESE OLM 25 NE BLI ...CONT... 30 N 63S EPH PDT BKE 50 NE BNO 4LW RNO 35 N BIH LAS FLG INW GNT 4SL 50 WSW LAR WRL SHR GCC AKO GCK DDC P28 END 40 ENE CSM CSM 35 NW CDS BGS DRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WNW MFE ALI NIR POE ESF CBM 5I3 EKN AOO PSB ART MSS. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FL PANHANDLE TO SERN PA/NJ/DELMARVA REGION... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SERN CO TO SRN NM AND FAR W TX... ...SYNOPSIS... UNUSUAL PATTERN ALOFT IS EVOLVING FOR EARLY-MID AUGUST...WITH HIGH AMPLITUDE MEAN TROUGH FROM ONT TO GULF OF MEXICO...AND INTENSE RIDGE FROM LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY ACROSS PACIFIC NW AND WRN CANADA. ONE OR MORE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH BASE OF LARGER SCALE TROUGH OVER MS/OH VALLEYS COULD CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK FRONTAL-WAVE CYCLOGENESIS OVER VA/CAROLINAS PIEDMONT REGION...ALONG BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING FROM WRN NEW ENGLAND SWWD TO NWRN GULF BY 13/00Z. ALSO ENTANGLED WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE TS BONNIE...WHOSE REMNANTS ARE FCST TO MOVE NEWD FROM NERN GULF TOWARD CAROLINAS BY END OF PERIOD. ...ATLANTIC SEABOARD...SERN CONUS... TSTMS MAY FORM INVOF SFC FRONT FROM SERN PA/SRN NJ AREA THROUGH TIDEWATER...WHERE AFTERNOON MLCAPES 1000-1500 J/KG ARE POSSIBLE...AND WHERE BACKED SFC FLOW NEAR FRONT MAY ENHANCE VERTICAL SHEAR ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW SUPERCELLS. MAIN THREATS WOULD BE DAMAGING GUSTS AND A FEW TORNADOES. FARTHER S... WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF SFC FRONT FROM TIDEWATER REGION SWWD THROUGH CAROLINAS PIEDMONT EARLY DURING DAY...SUPPORTED BY POCKETS OF STRONGER HEATING UNDER CLOUD BREAKS...NEAR-FRONTAL LIFT AND WEAK CAPPING. HOWEVER...VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN WITH SWD EXTENT OVER PREFRONTAL AIR MASS NOT YET AFFECTED BY REMAINS OF T.S. BONNIE. THEREFORE SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS MINIMAL OVER THIS REGION PRIOR TO ARRIVAL OF REMAINS OF TS BONNIE. LATEST NHC ADVISORIES -- I.E. WMO HEADER WTNT22 KNHC -- INDICATE BONNIE WILL MOVE ASHORE FL PANHANDLE EARLY IN DAY-2 PERIOD AND MOVE NEWD PARALLEL TO FRONTAL ZONE...WITH REMNANTS OVER PORTIONS CAROLINAS/SERN VA BY 13/12Z. DURING AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...FOREGOING AIR MASS SHOULD BE CHARACTERIZED BY MARGINAL BUOYANCY OF LESS THAN 1000 J/KG IN MOST AREAS -- AS NEAR MOIST-ADIABATIC MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES OCCUR ATOP BOUNDARY LAYER WHERE HEATING IS LIMITED BY CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER... EXPECT VERY MOIST AIR MASS...INCREASING LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS...POCKETS OF HIGHER CAPE UNDER CLOUD BREAKS...AND ENLARGING HODOGRAPHS WITH APCH OF TROPICAL CYCLONE REMAINS. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES AND OCCASIONAL SEVERE GUSTS EARLY IN PERIOD OVER FL PANHANDLE/SRN GA AND SHIFTING NEWD...MAINLY RIGHTWARD OF PROJECTED TRACK. ...SRN ROCKIES/PECOS VALLEY... WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER ERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES OF SRN CO AND ERN/SRN NM...SOME OF WHICH WILL BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREAT. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND ALSO IS POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT OUTLOOK AREA. TORNADO POTENTIAL APPEARS MARGINAL ATTM BECAUSE OF RELATIVELY HIGH LCL IN MOST AREAS. HOWEVER...40-50 KT 0-6 KM SHEARS AND LIKELIHOOD FOR STRONGLY DEVIANT RIGHT MOTIONS -- ENHANCING STORM-RELATIVE FLOWS -- SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO SUPERCELL POTENTIAL. WEAK BUT STRONGLY VEERING WIND PROFILES IN LOW LEVELS...MEAN NWLY FLOW ALOFT...AND MERIDIONAL ORIENTATION OF LIKELY INSTABILITY AXIS ALL SUGGEST ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE SSEWD TO SSWWD AND REMAIN WITHIN RELATIVELY NARROW CORRIDOR OF FAVORABLE MOISTURE/BUOYANCY OVER SERN CO AND ERN NM. ELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW COMPONENT SHOULD MAINTAIN MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW. MID-LATE AFTERNOON/PRE-STORM MLCAPE SHOULD MAX OUT AT AROUND 1500 J/KG OVER E-CENTRAL NM...DECREASING TOWARD 500-1000 J/KG IN SERN CO WHERE SFC THETAE IS LOWER...AND ALSO DECREASING TOWARD SRN NM BECAUSE OF STRONGER HEATING AND LOWER SFC RH. ACTIVITY MAY EVOLVE INTO ONE OR TWO SWD MOVING MCS BEFORE WEAKENING THURSDAY NIGHT. ..EDWARDS.. 08/11/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 12 07:34:05 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 12 Aug 2004 02:34:05 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200408120733.i7C7XMV21209@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 120730 SWODY2 SPC AC 120729 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0229 AM CDT THU AUG 12 2004 VALID 131200Z - 141200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W CTY AGS 55 ESE LYH 10 NW AVP 15 SE GFL 20 SSE PSM. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 W ELP 30 NW ALS 30 NNW COS 25 SW LAA 35 SSE CVS 20 SE P07. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WNW PRB 10 SSW SAC 35 ESE CEC 10 SSW EUG 15 SW SEA 50 WNW EAT 35 E YKM 55 NNW BNO 70 ESE 4LW 30 E LOL 45 SW ELY 40 E MLF 45 SW 4BL 20 SE CEZ 25 ESE MTJ 45 ESE CAG 35 S CPR 25 SSE 81V 30 NNW MHN 15 SW MCK 50 S DDC 10 WSW CDS 65 NE BGS 40 WSW SJT 25 SSE DRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE CEW 30 WSW AHN 30 NNE HKY 25 W SHD 30 SW DUJ 60 WNW ART. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE ERN SEABOARD... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER NM/SRN CO AND FAR W TX... ...SYNOPSIS... HIGHLY AMPLIFIED WRN RIDGE/ERN TROUGH PATTERN SHOULD ATTAIN MAXIMUM AMPLITUDE ON FRIDAY AS IMPULSE NOW DROPPING S ACROSS SD REACHES THE LWR OH VLY AND THEN BEGINS TO EJECT NNE ACROSS THE LWR GRT LKS. THE IMPULSE SHOULD INDUCE SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG STALLED FRONT OVER THE ERN SLOPES OF THE CNTRL APLCNS EARLY IN THE DAY...AT ABOUT THE SAME TIME THAT REMNANT CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH T.S. BONNIE REACHES THE NC/VA BORDER. THE COMBINED SURFACE WAVE/T.S. REMNANT SHOULD ACCELERATE NNE ALONG THE FRONT LATER FRIDAY...AND EXIT THE U.S. NEAR THE VT/NH BORDER BY 06Z SATURDAY. FARTHER S...LATEST NHC FORECASTS INDICATE THAT HRCN CHARLEY WILL MOVE FROM SW OF FMY TO ERN SC DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS. THE ECMWF...MEANWHILE... DEPICTS A FAR DIFFERENT SCENARIO. THAT MODEL FORECASTS CHARLEY TO BE LEFT BEHIND OVER THE CNTRL GULF OF MEXICO AS ERN U.S. TROUGH DEAMPLIFIES LATER FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY. IN THE WEST...A DOUBLE-STRUCTURED SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OFF THE CA CST WILL LIFT SLOWLY ENE INTO THE WRN GRT BASIN THIS PERIOD AS DEEP...NEARLY CUT-OFF LOW PERSISTS IN THE NE PACIFIC. ...ERN SEABOARD... LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE ENHANCED /AOA 40 KT/ INVOF DEVELOPING FRONTAL WAVE/T.S. REMNANT OVER THE ERN PIEDMONT/CSTL PLN REGION OF NC/VA EARLY FRIDAY. COUPLED WITH RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE INFLOW/LOW LCLS...THIS MAY POSE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES DESPITE UNFAVORABLE TIME OF DAY. THE TORNADO THREAT WILL LIKELY PERSIST...AND MAY INCREASE...AS WAVE MOVES NNE ACROSS ERN MD/DE/SE PA AND NJ LATER IN THE DAY...WHERE LIMITED SURFACE HEATING WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST MODEST LOW LEVEL DESTABILIZATION. THE THREAT MAY REACH SE NY/SRN NEW ENG BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WHERE UNUSUALLY STRONG /40-50 KT/ SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW AND ENTRANCE REGION OF 100 KT HIGH LEVEL JET WILL ENHANCE DEEP SHEAR/LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT. SURFACE HEATING IN MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND ENVIRONMENT S OF WAVE MAY ALSO SUPPORT RENEWED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SWD ALONG FRONT INTO THE ERN CAROLINAS LATER IN THE DAY...WHERE EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS/BOWING SEGMENTS MAY POSE A THREAT FOR HIGH WIND DESPITE WEAK LAPSE RATES. FARTHER S...CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH HRCN CHARLEY WILL POSE A NWD-MOVING THREAT FOR TORNADOES THROUGHOUT THE DAY ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA. THIS THREAT MAY REAPPEAR LATE IN THE PERIOD OVER CSTL PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS DEPENDING UPON EVENTUAL MOTION OF THE STORM /SEE LATER NHC FORECASTS FOR DETAILS/. ...NM/FAR W TX AND SRN HI PLNS... CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR STRONG...DIURNALLY ENHANCED STORMS OVER THE MTNS OF SRN CO/NM AND PERHAPS FAR W TX THIS PERIOD AS LARGE SCALE PATTERN REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED OVER REGION. SUFFICIENT /35-40 KT/ DEEP SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED/SUSTAINED ACTIVITY AND PERHAPS A FEW SUPERCELLS GIVEN PRESENCE OF AMPLE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE /DEWPOINTS AOA 55 F/ AND STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD CONFINE SEVERE RISK TO HAIL/HIGH WIND. THE STORMS MAY MERGE INTO A SMALL MCS FRIDAY NIGHT. ...NRN CA/CASCADES... A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY DEVELOP WITH AFTERNOON HEATING OVER THE MTNS OF NRN CA/WRN ORE...ALONG RIBBON OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADING NNE AHEAD OF PACIFIC SHORTWAVE. ..CORFIDI.. 08/12/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 12 17:31:42 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 12 Aug 2004 12:31:42 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200408121731.i7CHV0V18243@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 121729 SWODY2 SPC AC 121728 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK ISSUED BY AFWA OFFUTT AIR FORCE BASE BELLEVUE NE 1228 PM CDT THU AUG 12 2004 VALID 131200Z - 141200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NNE PFN 40 ENE MAI 45 SW MCN 45 N AGS 30 ENE LYH 25 W CXY 40 ENE BGM 15 SSW RUT PSM ...CONT... 10 WNW PNS 30 WSW AUO 20 ESE RMG 30 NNW HSS 15 NW BKW HLG 25 NW JHW. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N OTH 25 W SLE 30 NW DLS 45 W PDT 50 N BNO 55 NNW WMC 35 E LOL 50 SW ELY 45 E MLF 50 W EGE 35 S DGW 35 S RAP 50 NW VTN 15 S ANW 15 ENE EAR 15 S SLN 20 E OKC 15 WSW ABI 20 SE DRT ...CONT... ELP 40 N ALM 45 N 4CR 40 E ALS 20 NNE PUB 55 N LAA 55 ENE LAA 25 SW LBL 30 ENE AMA 15 ESE LBB 25 N MAF 15 N FST 25 SW P07. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ERN NM/SE CO/ W TX... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ERN SEABOARD... ...SYNOPSIS... A HIGH AMPLITUDE MERIDIONAL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE COUNTRY WITH A RIDGE IN THE W AND A TROUGH OVER THE E. THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO REACH A MAXIMUM AMPLITUDE ON FRIDAY AS AN IMPULSE DROPPING S ACROSS SD ON DAY 1 REACHES THE LWR OH VLY AND THEN BEGINS TO EJECT NNE ACROSS THE LWR GRT LKS. THIS IMPULSE SHOULD INDUCE SURFACE WAVES ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE ERN SLOPES OF THE CNTRL APLCNS EARLY IN THE DAY...AT ABOUT THE SAME TIME THAT REMNANT CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH T.S. BONNIE REACHES THE NC/VA BORDER. THE COMBINED SURFACE WAVE/T.S. REMAINS SHOULD ACCELERATE NNE ALONG THE FRONT LATER FRIDAY SUPPORTED BY FAIRLY STRONG SWLY FLOW ALOFT...AND EXIT THE U.S. NEAR THE VT/NH BORDER BY 06Z SATURDAY. FARTHER S...LATEST NHC FORECASTS INDICATE THAT HURCN CHARLEY WILL MOVE FROM SW OF FMY TO ERN SC DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS. IN THE WEST...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OFF THE CA CST WILL LIFT SLOWLY ENE INTO THE WRN GRT BASIN THIS PERIOD AS A DEEP NEARLY CUT-OFF LOW PERSISTS IN THE NE PACIFIC. ...ERN SEABOARD... LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT 40 KT INVOF DEVELOPING FRONTAL WAVE/T.S. REMNANT OVER THE ERN PIEDMONT/CSTL PLN REGION OF NC/VA EARLY FRIDAY. THE VERTICAL SHEAR COUPLED WITH ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOIST INFLOW/LOW LCLS MAY BE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES DESPITE UNFAVORABLE TIME OF DAY. THE TORNADO THREAT WILL LIKELY PERSIST AND MAY INCREASE AS WAVE MOVES NNE ACROSS ERN MD/DE/SE PA AND NJ LATER IN THE DAY...WHERE LIMITED SURFACE HEATING WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST SOME LOW LEVEL DESTABILIZATION. THE THREAT MAY REACH SE NY/SRN NEW ENG BY EARLY AFTERNOON WHERE UNUSUALLY STRONG /40-50 KT/ SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW AND ENTRANCE REGION OF 100 KT HIGH LEVEL JET WILL ENHANCE DEEP SHEAR/LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT. SURFACE HEATING IN MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND ENVIRONMENT S OF WAVE MAY ALSO SUPPORT RENEWED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SWD ALONG FRONT INTO THE ERN CAROLINAS LATER IN THE DAY WHERE EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS/BOWING SEGMENTS MAY POSE A THREAT FOR HIGH WIND DESPITE WEAK LAPSE RATES. FARTHER S...CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH HURCN CHARLEY WILL POSE A THREAT FOR TORNADOES THROUGHOUT THE DAY ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA. THIS THREAT MAY REAPPEAR LATE IN THE PERIOD OVER CSTL PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS DEPENDING UPON EVENTUAL MOTION OF THE STORM /SEE LATER NHC FORECASTS FOR DETAILS/. ...NM/W TX AND SRN HI PLNS... CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR STRONG...DIURNALLY ENHANCED STORMS OVER THE MTNS OF SRN CO/NM AND W TX THIS PERIOD AS THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED OVER REGION. EXPECT 35-40KT OF DEEP SHEAR TO BE PRESENT TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED/SUSTAINED ACTIVITY. PRESENCE OF AMPLE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE /DEWPOINTS AOA 55 F/ AND STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY SUPPORT A FEW SUPERCELLS. WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD CONFINE SEVERE RISK TO HAIL/HIGH WIND. ...NRN CA/CASCADES... EXPECT ISOLD TSTMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE MTNS OF NRN CA/WRN OR AS A BAND OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF A PAC SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE REGION DURING MAX HEATING. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE THERE IS LOCALLY STRONG OROGRAPHIC LIFT. ..AFWA.. 08/12/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 13 06:57:47 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 13 Aug 2004 01:57:47 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200408130657.i7D6v7V11591@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 130654 SWODY2 SPC AC 130652 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0152 AM CDT FRI AUG 13 2004 VALID 141200Z - 151200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE DAB 40 NNW GNV 40 SW AGS 15 NNW DAN 30 NW ILG 20 ESE NEL. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE 4CR 20 SW DEN 35 E FCL 35 WNW GLD 25 ENE LBB 45 E ROW 40 ESE 4CR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW CTY 20 SSW AHN 20 E CRW 35 SSE SLK 25 SSW HUL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE INL 35 WSW BJI JMS 15 SSW ISN 65 NNE GGW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE IPL 45 N TRM 35 W NID 15 ESE MER 50 S RBL 25 W MFR 30 NNW PDX 30 NE BLI ...CONT... 35 NNW 63S 65 S S80 35 NNW TWF 25 N OGD 35 N LAR 15 S 81V 40 NNW RAP 35 N VTN 20 NW GRI 30 NNW END 35 SSW SPS 45 ESE P07. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE SRN AND MID ATLANTIC... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED BY LONGWAVE RIDGING OVER THE WRN U.S. AND A TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES. REMNANTS OF TROPICAL SYSTEM CHARLIE WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE PERIOD AS IT IS CARRIED NNEWD WITHIN MODERATE SSWLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH. NWLY FLOW REGIME WILL ALSO LIKELY REMAIN ACTIVE...CONVECTIVELY SPEAKING...OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS AS WEAK DISTURBANCES/SPEED MAXIMA SHIFT SEWD DURING THE PERIOD. ...ERN U.S... HURRICANE CHARLIE IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR BRUNSWICK/GA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WITH A TRACK GENERALLY NNEWD WITH THE REMNANT CIRCULATION CENTER MOVING ACROSS ERN/CENTRAL CAROLINAS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE DELMARVA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. APPEARS INFLUX OF MOIST /I.E. SFC DEW POINTS IN THE 70S/ AND DESTABILIZING AIR MASS WILL OCCUR ALONG AND EAST OF CHARLIE/S TRACK SATURDAY. THEREFORE...GIVEN THE LOCATION OF ENHANCED LOW TO DEEP LAYER SHEAR...A THREAT OF TORNADOES AND WIND DAMAGE WITHIN FAST MOVING CONVECTIVE LINES WILL SPREAD NWD THROUGH THE PERIOD. ATTM...OFFICIAL TRACK SUGGESTS PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL EXTEND FROM THE SERN ATLANTIC COAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. ...CENTRAL ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS... SBCAPES FROM 1000-2000 J/KG ARE AGAIN FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE CO ROCKIES SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AS BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS RELATIVELY MOIST UNDER STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. SHEAR VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AS STORMS DEVELOP AND MOVE GENERALLY SSEWD INTO ERN CO AND THE HIGH PLAINS OF NM/WRN TX. LARGE HAIL AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN BE EXPECTED INTO THE MID EVENING... THOUGH STORMS MAY EVOLVE INTO ONE OR MORE MCSS INTO THE SRN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ALONG 30-35 KT SLY LLJ AFTER DARK WITH ATTENDANT WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL SHOULD THIS ACTIVITY REMAIN ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. ...WRN U.S... MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ABUNDANT WITHIN LONGWAVE RIDGING OVER THE WRN STATES SATURDAY. THIS WILL AGAIN SUPPORT SCATTERED CONVECTION...MAINLY OVER AND NEAR HIGHER TERRAIN...AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN AND AIR MASS DESTABILIZES WITH DAY TIME HEATING. APPEARS A FEW STRONGER STORMS MAY DEVELOP INTO PORTIONS OF THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...WHERE MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BE A BIT STRONGER AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH OFF THE PAC NW COAST. THEREFORE WILL INCLUDE LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES ATTM. ..EVANS.. 08/13/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 13 17:36:56 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 13 Aug 2004 12:36:56 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200408131736.i7DHaGV30597@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 131733 SWODY2 SPC AC 131732 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1232 PM CDT FRI AUG 13 2004 VALID 141200Z - 151200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MLB 30 NE CTY 40 SW AGS 30 N GSO 15 SSE BWI 20 ESE NEL. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NE 4CR 35 W COS 35 NW AKO 30 NNW GLD 40 NW LTS 70 N ABI 40 ENE BGS 30 N MAF 50 NE 4CR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW TLH 20 SW RMG 50 SSW TYS 20 ESE CRW 20 NNE IPT 10 N ORH 25 W BGR 45 NNW CAR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE INL 35 WSW BJI JMS 15 SSW ISN 65 NNE GGW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE IPL 45 N TRM 35 W NID 15 ESE MER 50 S RBL 25 W MFR 30 NNW PDX 30 NE BLI ...CONT... 35 NNW 63S 35 ENE YKM 55 SE BKE 50 SSW VEL 50 N CYS 50 NW PHP 50 WSW ABR 20 SW YKN 35 S P28 40 SSW DAL 40 E JCT 25 WNW DRT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COAST STATES FROM FL NWD TO SRN NEW ENGLAND... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CONUS WITH A RIDGE PERSISTING IN THE WEST AND A TROUGH IN THE EAST. OTHER / OBVIOUS FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE CHARLEY...WHICH SHOULD BE MOVING NNEWD ACROSS NRN FL AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. CHARLEY IS FORECAST TO MOVE NNEWD THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COAST STATES ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES. OTHER AREA OF SEVERE THREAT SHOULD EXIST ACROSS THE CENTRAL / SRN HIGH PLAINS...WHERE MODERATE NWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ATOP LOW-LEVEL SELYS SHOULD PROVIDE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE / SUPERCELL STORMS. ...ATLANTIC COAST FROM FL TO SRN NEW ENGLAND... CHARLEY WILL WEAKEN SLOWLY AS IT MOVES NNEWD FROM NRN FL ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. AS LOW-LEVEL SELY FLOW INCREASES UP THE ATLANTIC COAST DOWNSTREAM OF CHARLEY...SW-NE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS / SERN VA. THIS BOUNDARY COULD FOCUS A TORNADO THREAT...WITHIN REGION OF BROADER SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ASSOCIATED WITH FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS IN NERN QUADRANT OF THE STORM. THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING...AS THE CHARLEY CONTINUES NNEWD TOWARD THE DELMARVA REGION. ...CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS TO THE FRONT RANGE... MODERATE NWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS ALONG REAR SIDE OF PERSISTENT CENTRAL AND ERN U.S. TROUGH. MEANWHILE...LOW-LEVEL SELY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ALSO REMAIN ACROSS THIS REGION...WHICH WILL ALLOW CONTINUED ADVECTION OF MODEST /LOW 60S DEWPOINTS/ MOISTURE NWWD INTO THE REGION. DEGREE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH AFTERNOON HEATING WILL ALLOW 500 TO 1500 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE TO DEVELOP...SUPPORTING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT -- INITIALLY EXPECTED ACROSS ERN CO AND ADJACENT NERN NM. WITH LOW-LEVEL SELY FLOW VEERING / INCREASING TO 25 TO 30 KT AT MID-LEVELS...SHEAR PROFILES WILL FAVOR ORGANIZED / ROTATING UPDRAFTS. EXPECT THREAT FOR HAIL / DAMAGING WINDS...WHICH SHOULD SPREAD SWD / SEWD WITH TIME AS SUPERCELLS DEVELOP / MOVE INTO PARTS OF SWRN KS AND THE TX / OK PANHANDLES. STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING / OVERNIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL JET / INFLOW INCREASES. WITH ETA MODEL SUGGESTING SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SERN CO DURING THE AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO WEAK VORT MAX MOVING SEWD ACROSS THIS REGION...ENHANCED UVV AND STRONGER SHEAR PROFILES MAY SUPPORT A GREATER SEVERE THREAT ACROSS SERN CO / SWRN KS / THE OK AND NRN TX PANHANDLES. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO TIMING OF ANY SUBTLE MID-LEVEL FEATURE PRECLUDES INCREASING THE SEVERE PROBABILITY ATTM. ..GOSS.. 08/13/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 14 07:14:59 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 14 Aug 2004 02:14:59 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200408140714.i7E7ETV00337@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 140711 SWODY2 SPC AC 140710 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0210 AM CDT SAT AUG 14 2004 VALID 151200Z - 161200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNE RRT 60 ENE STC 25 E FRM 20 SSW HSI 30 SSE LIC 40 E FCL 45 NW MBG 70 NNE DVL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NW CTB 30 SSE LVM 45 NW RWL 45 NNE LAR 45 NNW CDR 35 N DIK 55 N MOT ...CONT... 40 NW CMX 30 NW LSE 30 NNE STJ 10 NW BVO 30 NNE ADM 30 N DAL 30 SSW BWD 30 SSE FST 95 SSE MRF ...CONT... 50 SW TUS 40 WNW PHX 35 NNW NID TVL 70 SSE RDM 30 ENE BLI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNE AQQ 35 SSE CSG 35 W CHA 15 NE LEX 40 NNW DAY 20 N MTC. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PART OF THE NRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... LONGWAVE RIDGE WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE WRN STATES SUNDAY. DOWNSTREAM...A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG SEWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND TOWARDS THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY...EJECTING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENEWD ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES REGION. REMNANTS OF CHARLEY ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE NEAR LONG ISLAND AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WHICH WILL LIFT QUICKLY ACROSS ERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY. ...NRN PLAINS... LOW LEVEL SLY FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NRN PLAINS SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH WILL ALLOW BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY. ETA AND GFS ARE CURRENTLY FORECASTING MID 50F TO LOWER 60F SURFACE DEW POINTS AHEAD OF SURFACE WIND SHIFT/FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE SEWD INTO ERN ND/CENTRAL SD BY LATE IN THE DAY. DEEP ASCENT AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD OVERCOME CAPPING AND ALLOW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WITH THIS FEATURE INTO THE NRN PLAINS...GIVEN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE. FARTHER SW...HEATING AND LIFT MAY SUPPORT MORE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WHERE AIR MASS WILL BE MORE UNSTABLE. SHEAR VALUES WILL BE MARGINAL...YET STILL SUFFICIENT...FOR SUPERCELLS WHICH WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. ACTIVITY MAY INCREASE IN COVERAGE...BUT BECOME MORE ELEVATED...AFTER DARK AS LLJ DE-COUPLES. THIS MAY SPREAD THREAT OF ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY AND THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. ...NORTHEAST... WILL MAINTAIN LOW PROBABILITIES OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS REMNANTS OF CHARLEY ARE FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY. PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE FROM DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. PORTIONS OF THE AREA MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO SLIGHT RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS ONCE CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN TROPICAL SYSTEM/S EVENTUAL TRACK. ..EVANS.. 08/14/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 14 17:40:20 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 14 Aug 2004 12:40:20 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200408141739.i7EHdkV20262@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 141737 SWODY2 SPC AC 141736 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1236 PM CDT SAT AUG 14 2004 VALID 151200Z - 161200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 W RRT 40 E FAR 20 S RWF 30 E OMA 15 SSE CNK 35 WNW GCK 10 NE PUB FCL 30 E CDR 55 N DVL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SW TUS 70 NW GBN 35 S BIH 15 SW RNO 60 SE EUG 10 NE BLI ...CONT... 30 NW CTB 30 SSE LVM 45 NW RWL 45 NNE LAR 25 SW RAP 35 ESE DIK 55 N MOT ...CONT... 90 N CMX 35 NNW VOK 25 NNE IRK 25 NNE JLN 15 WSW DUA 15 WNW BWD 45 ESE P07. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ESE TLH 30 E GAD 25 SSE LEX 15 E FWA 25 ENE MBS. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL THROUGH NRN PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... THE LARGE SCALE UPPER PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH AN UPPER TROUGH PERSISTING OVER THE ERN U.S. AND AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WRN STATES. SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MIGRATE THROUGH THIS PATTERN. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING SEWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY WILL EJECT NEWD THROUGH BASE OF UPPER TROUGH AND INTO THE OH VALLEY AS AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES SEWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE CHARLEY WILL CONTINUE NEWD INTO NEW ENGLAND BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. ...CNTRL AND NRN PLAINS-WRN PARTS OF THE MID AND UPPER MS VALLEY... A COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING SEWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS SUNDAY WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING SWWD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. BY MID AFTERNOON THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM CNTRL ND SWWD THROUGH NW SD AND NE WY. PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SHOULD EXTEND FROM CNTRL ND SWWD THROUGH CNTRL SD...WRN NEB AND NE CO. DOWNSTREAM FROM THESE BOUNDARIES...THE GRADIENT BETWEEN RETREATING SURFACE RIDGE AND LEE TROUGH WILL ESTABLISH A STRONGER SLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OVER THE PLAINS. DESPITE THE INCREASING SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE LIMITED. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOW SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AS FAR S AS TX WITH MID 60S DEWPOINTS REMAINING CONFINED TO S TX. THIS SUGGESTS AT BEST...MID TO UPPER 50S DEWPOINTS CAN BE EXPECTED IN PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS WITH LOW TO MID 50S OVER THE NRN PLAINS BY AFTERNOON SUNDAY. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL DEVELOP EWD DURING THE DAY ABOVE THE MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG...WITH THE STRONGER INSTABILITY EXPECTED OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF THE COLD FRONT AS WELL AS ALONG PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CO AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES DURING THE AFTERNOON. MODERATE NWLY MID-UPPER FLOW ABOVE SLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS WITH PRIMARY THREATS BEING ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL. ACTIVITY MAY EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATE INTO AN MCS AS IT MOVES EWD TOWARD THE MS VALLEY DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH SEVERE THREAT GRADUALLY DECREASING WITH TIME AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES. ...NEW ENGLAND... REMNANTS OF HURRICANE CHARLIE WILL CONTINUE NEWD INTO NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. IT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND BECOME MORE EXTRA TROPICAL AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS AND REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE ERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH AND STRONGER SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL LIKELY PERSIST WITH CHARLIE AS IT CONTINUES NWD. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY AND OVERALL SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED BY WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND STABLE ONSHORE FLOW. ...SERN U.S.... SCATTERED STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS PARTS OF GA AND SC DURING THE AFTERNOON. THOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH WITH LOW 70S SURFACE DEWPOINTS...OVERALL INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED BY MODEST LAPSE RATES WITH MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG EXPECTED. LOW LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK. HOWEVER...SUFFICIENT FLOW WILL EXIST ON SRN PERIPHERY OF UPPER TROUGH TO SUPPORT 30-35 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR. ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLY HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. GIVEN WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW/CONVERGENCE AS WELL AS WEAK MID/UPPER FORCING FOR ASCENT...OVERALL SEVERE THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT MORE THAN LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME. ..DIAL.. 08/14/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 15 06:52:51 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 15 Aug 2004 01:52:51 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200408150652.i7F6qJV07447@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 150650 SWODY2 SPC AC 150649 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0149 AM CDT SUN AUG 15 2004 VALID 161200Z - 171200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE CZZ 30 ESE DAG 25 SSE BIH 10 WNW TVL 35 ESE LMT 70 ENE BLI ...CONT... 45 NNE FCA 40 W 3HT 35 WNW REJ 40 SSW ABR 55 WSW AXN 10 E RRT ...CONT... 40 NNE MTC 20 SSW MDH 30 WNW LIT 55 NE ABI 35 SSE P07. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE AQQ TOI 25 W RMG 50 NW HSS 35 W EKN 25 S ROC 35 NNW GFL 15 WSW PWM. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL FLATTEN MONDAY AS TROUGH AXIS BROADENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A SURFACE COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT WILL MOVE EWD INTO THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY AND SLOWLY SWD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN WAKE OF FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE NRN PLAINS DURING THE DAY 1 PERIOD. ...WRN GREAT LAKES/NRN MS RIVER VALLEY... MODELS SIMILAR IN DEVELOPING A MCS OVER THIS REGION EARLY MONDAY MORNING WHICH MAY CONTINUE EWD INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES BEFORE WEAKENING BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THOUGH NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THIS AREA...EFFECTS OF MORNING CONVECTION RAISE TOO MANY QUESTIONS TO WARRANT SLIGHT RISK ATTM. AIR MASS MIGHT BE TOO STABILIZED TO SUPPORT RENEWED VIGOROUS CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON NEAR THE PRIMARY SURFACE WIND SHIFT...AS INDICATED BY ETA WHICH DEVELOPS NO QPF DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP FORECAST OF LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES DUE TO POTENTIAL FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WITH ELEVATED MCS EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND MORE CONDITIONAL THREAT OF AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT. ...CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... LAPSE RATES REMAIN STEEP OVER THIS REGION...WITH GRADUAL MOISTENING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS AHEAD OF APPROACHING SURFACE FRONT/WIND SHIFT. THOUGH SHEAR IS MARGINAL...AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STEEP LAPSE RATES SUGGEST A FEW STRONGER STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL/WIND AS THEY MOVE OFF HIGHER TERRAIN AND/OR DEVELOP NEAR SURFACE FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ..EVANS.. 08/15/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 15 17:36:49 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 15 Aug 2004 12:36:49 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200408151736.i7FHaJV29235@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 151734 SWODY2 SPC AC 151733 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1233 PM CDT SUN AUG 15 2004 VALID 161200Z - 171200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNE FCA 15 NNE 4BQ 25 S RAP 50 NNE BUB 20 S FSD 45 ESE RRT ...CONT... 30 S OSC 20 N AZO 10 SSW POF 40 NNW BGS 35 SW P07 ...CONT... 25 NNW YUM 55 WSW EED 15 NW DRA 40 SE BIH 40 WNW BIH 20 NNW NFL 40 ESE MHS 25 NNE MFR 30 ENE BLI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW PFN 20 NNW ABY 15 W RMG 50 NW HSS 15 SW SSU 20 NNE ROC 10 W MSS 15 NE EFK 15 S PSM. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... STRONG MID-LEVEL LOW / VORT MAX -- NOW MOVING SSEWD TOWARD ND -- IS FORECAST TO BE SITUATED ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY REGION AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT EXTENDING FROM MN SWWD INTO NERN CO IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY SEWD THROUGH THE PERIOD AS MID-LEVEL LOW WEAKENS / CROSSES THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH 17/12Z. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM NRN LK MI WSWWD ACROSS IA INTO SERN NEB / NRN KS / ERN CO. OTHERWISE...LARGE-SCALE MID-LEVEL PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE...WITH A RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND A BROAD / LOW-AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL AND ERN CONUS. ...UPPER MS VALLEY SWWD ACROSS THE MIDDLE MO VALLEY... MID-LEVEL VORT MAX AND ASSOCIATED 30 TO 40 KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK MOVING SEWD / ESEWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS / UPPER LAKES WILL BE A FOCUS FOR A LOW-END SEVERE STORM THREAT THIS PERIOD. CLUSTER OF PRIMARILY ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING FROM IA NEWD INTO PARTS OF MN / WI AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE / WITHIN ZONE OF LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH LOW-LEVEL JET. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY AS UPPER FEATURE SHIFTS ESEWD. HOWEVER...MARGINAL INSTABILITY ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE DAY DOWNSTREAM OF THIS CLUSTER SUGGESTS ONLY A LOW-PROBABILITY THREAT FOR MARGINAL HAIL WITH A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS. BEHIND THIS CONVECTIVE CLUSTER / ALONG SURFACE BOUNDARY...ETA SUGGESTS THAT AIRMASS MAY DESTABILIZE WITH 1000 TO 2000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE INDICATED BY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ETA FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THIS REGION REVEAL ARTIFICIAL STEEPENING OF LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES BY ACTIVE SHALLOW CONVECTIVE PARAMETERIZATION. IT APPEARS THAT MORE LIKELY SCENARIO WILL BE THAT ANY DESTABILIZATION OF CONVECTIVELY-CONTAMINATED AIRMASS SHOULD QUICKLY RESULT IN NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT -- AND THUS LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF APPRECIABLE INSTABILITY. ALTHOUGH DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD WOULD SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION / SEVERE THREAT...WILL MAINTAIN ONLY LOW-PROBABILITY SEVERE THREAT GIVEN FORECAST FOR PERSISTENT CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED LACK OF POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION. SOMEWHAT GREATER THREAT MAY EXIST ALONG SRN FRINGES OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE CLUSTER WHERE AIRMASS COULD POTENTIALLY BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE UNSTABLE. HOWEVER...SHEAR DECREASES WITH SWD EXTENT AND THUS ATTM EXPECT SEVERE THREAT TO REMAIN BELOW SLIGHT RISK THRESHOLDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. ...ERN WY / SWRN SD NERN CO EWD INTO NEB... UPSLOPE FLOW RESULTING FROM SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW JUST N OF SAGGING SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY PROVIDE SUFFICIENT UVV FOR STORM INITIATION OVER ERN WY AND PERHAPS NERN CO...WHERE AIRMASS SHOULD BECOME MARGINALLY UNSTABLE BY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT MAY ALSO OCCUR EWD ACROSS NEB WITHIN WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG SURFACE BOUNDARY -- TO THE SW OF ONGOING CONVECTION OVER IA / MN / WI -- WHERE SOMEWHAT GREATER INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP. FORECAST 20 TO 25 KT MID-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR WEAK UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION AND ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS / MARGINAL HAIL. ALTHOUGH SOMEWHAT GREATER DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD EXIST OVER THE HIGH PLAINS DUE TO SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW...WEAKER INSTABILITY ACROSS THIS REGION SHOULD OFFSET MORE FAVORABLE WIND FIELD. OVERALL RESULT SHOULD BE A GENERALLY LOW-PROBABILITY THREAT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. ..GOSS.. 08/15/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 16 07:22:31 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 16 Aug 2004 02:22:31 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200408160722.i7G7M5V02903@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 160719 SWODY2 SPC AC 160718 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0218 AM CDT MON AUG 16 2004 VALID 171200Z - 181200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SE VIH 45 ENE CNU 25 SSW FLV 40 ENE IRK 45 ESE DBQ 40 NNW CGX 10 W SBN 10 N IND 40 S HUF 55 SE VIH. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNE CYS 65 WNW CDR 50 SSW PHP 40 SSW ANW 25 ESE LBF 40 SSE AKO 20 ENE DEN 35 NNE CYS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSE MOB 20 NNW LGC 40 WSW CSV 35 SE POF 30 SW JLN 15 NW END 65 ENE AMA 40 NNW BGS 15 SSW P07 ...CONT... 60 SSW GBN 25 NE BLH 30 WNW BIH 40 S SVE 50 SSE RDM 60 NW 4OM ...CONT... 100 NW FCA 45 NE MSO 25 ENE LVM 35 SW 4BQ 10 N PHP 15 NNW FSD 30 SSW STC 30 ESE BJI 35 W GFK 55 NNW MOT ...CONT... 50 W ART 20 ESE ERI 20 NNW LBE 30 ESE NEL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN GREAT LAKES ACROSS THE LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PART OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... BROAD TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE ERN U.S...WITH A SERIES OF LOW AMPLITUDE SYSTEMS SHIFTING ESEWD AWAY FROM WRN U.S. RIDGE AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE MID WEST MONDAY. SEVERAL OTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND THE ROCKIES AS THEY DRIFT SLOWLY EWD. AT THE SURFACE ...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EWD INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES AND MID MS RIVER VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON. WRN END OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL STALL IN A NWWD ORIENTATION INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN IN THE LOW LEVELS AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...SUGGESTING POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE LENGTH OF THE FRONT. ...SRN GREAT LAKES ACROSS THE LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY... MODELS IN AGREEMENT IN MAINTAINING ELEVATED CONVECTION INTO THE NRN/MID MS RIVER VALLEY AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING AND ALLOW SUFFICIENT HEATING INTO THE SRN GREAT LAKES FOR MODERATE MLCAPES BY THE MID AFTERNOON AHEAD OF APPROACHING SURFACE FRONT. IN ADDITION...ASCENT WILL BE AIDED BY FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE WRN GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE DAY. CAPE/SHEAR ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW ORGANIZED CLUSTER/LINES WITH ATTENDANT THREATS OF LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS INTO THE MID EVENING. ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... SECOND AREA OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO FORM WITHIN UPSLOPE REGIME NEAR STALLED SURFACE FRONT INTO NERN CO/WRN NEB/SERN WY. APPEARS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR MARGINAL TO MODERATE MLCAPES DURING THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STEEP LAPSE RATES AND 35-40 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL FAVOR DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SUPERCELLS/MULTICELL CLUSTERS BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE ORGANIZED/ELEVATED AND SHIFT EWD INTO CENTRAL NEB AS AIR MASS DECOUPLES AND SLY LLJ INCREASES DURING THE MID TO LATE EVENING. LARGE HAIL WILL BE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WITH ACTIVITY OVER THIS REGION. ...NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION INTO THE NRN ROCKIES... APPEARS WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY FOCUS VIGOROUS CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THIS REGION TUESDAY. THOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STORM-SCALE ORGANIZATION WILL BE WEAK...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT CAPE WILL REMAIN PRESENT FOR BRIEF-LIVED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ..EVANS.. 08/16/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 16 17:34:42 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 16 Aug 2004 12:34:42 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200408161734.i7GHYeV06954@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 161731 SWODY2 SPC AC 161729 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1229 PM CDT MON AUG 16 2004 VALID 171200Z - 181200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSW STL 25 NNW TBN 25 S SZL 30 WSW SZL 35 E MKC 30 SSW IRK 40 ENE IRK 25 ESE CID 15 WNW DBQ 15 W MSN 35 WNW MKE 45 ESE MKE 20 NNW AZO 30 S AZO 45 NNE LAF 25 SE DNV 40 S MTO 60 SSW STL. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE DGW CDR 20 ENE VTN 55 NNE BUB 20 NE BUB 10 ESE BBW 25 SE LBF 10 W IML 10 NNE AKO 40 NE DEN 25 WSW CYS 40 ESE DGW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 E 7R4 45 NNW PNS 30 E GAD 35 W SHD 25 SE PSB 15 WNW ELM 15 W UCA 30 N POU 15 W ISP ...CONT... 55 N ROC BUF 20 NE CLE 15 ESE BWG 30 ESE PAH 30 N POF 30 SW JLN 45 N DDC 40 W EHA 45 ESE TCC 10 NW DRT ...CONT... 75 SW GBN 25 NE BLH 30 WNW BIH 40 S SVE 50 SSE RDM 55 NW 4OM ...CONT... 70 NW FCA 35 E HLN 60 N SHR 45 SSW REJ 15 NNW PHP 10 W BKX 20 W MKT 30 WNW LSE 30 SE CWA 25 NW ESC 115 NNW ANJ ...CONT... 125 NNE CMX 65 WNW CMX 15 S HIB 45 WSW BJI 50 SW GFK 50 W DVL 55 NNW MOT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID WEST FROM MO TO IL/NWRN IND... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS INCLUDING WRN WY/NERN CO AND WRN NEB... ...SYNOPSIS... CYCLONIC MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE NRN STATES ON TUESDAY AS A DEEP POLAR VORTEX DEVELOPS OVER NCNTRL CANADA. A WEAK SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN MODEST WNWLY MID LEVEL FLOW...AND CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...WILL MAINTAIN AN AXIS OF ASCENT ALONG RESIDUAL FRONT FROM IA/MO NEWD TO MI. THE TRAILING PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL EXTEND WWD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS AND INTERSECT LEE TROUGH INVOF WRN NEB/ERN WY. WELL DEFINED UPPER VORTEX MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE MAY ENHANCE LIFT ALONG THE LEE TROUGH/FRONT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS FROM LATER AFTERNOON INTO THE NIGHT. ...MIDWEST... A BAND OF ELEVATED TSTMS MAY BE ONGOING EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITHIN WARM CONVEYOR BELT FROM ERN IA/MO TO MI. STRONG INSTABILITY IS FCST TO DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE MORNING CONVECTION WITH MLCAPE CLIMBING TO BETWEEN 1500-2500 J/KG ACROSS THE CORN BELT. WHILE OVERALL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL WAVE ACROSS THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK...CONVERGENCE/LIFT ALONG THE RESIDUAL FRONTAL ZONE/WIND SHIFT COUPLED WITH WEAK CAP SHOULD SUPPORT ISOLD TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT. MID LEVEL FLOW AROUND 30KT ATOP WEAKER SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEAR FOR STORM ORGANIZATION AND PERSISTENCE. A FEW LINES/BANDS OF STORMS WITH A COUPLE OF SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM ERN IA INTO NRN IL FROM AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THESE STORMS. STORM INITIATION ALONG THE TRAILING PORTION OF THE FRONT INTO MO IS A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN. WEAKER SHEAR AND FORCING...BUT STRONGER INSTABILITY THIS AREA...INDICATES A CHANCE OF ISOLD STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. ...HIGH PLAINS... LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH EWD MOVING UPPER WAVE...COUPLED WITH DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN...SHOULD PROMOTE NUMEROUS TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES EAST TO THE PLAINS. GREATEST INSTABILITY AND FORCING SHOULD BE FOCUSED NEAR LEE TROUGH/FRONT INTERSECTION ACROSS SERN WY INTO NEB PNHDL. STORMS WILL DEVELOP EAST OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN INTO THIS ENVIRONMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH A FEW SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE. LARGE HAIL AND A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. CONVECTION MAY EVOLVE INTO SMALL MCS BY LATE EVENING AND DEVELOP EAST ACROSS NEB WITH INFLOW BEING MAINTAINED BY INTENSIFYING LLJ. ..CARBIN.. 08/16/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 17 07:28:34 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 17 Aug 2004 02:28:34 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200408170728.i7H7SeV01591@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 170726 SWODY2 SPC AC 170724 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0224 AM CDT TUE AUG 17 2004 VALID 181200Z - 191200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW MCW 25 NW GRB 20 E TVC 30 NNE LAN 45 NE LAF 25 SE TOP 35 WSW BIE 30 ESE OLU 25 WNW MCW. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM WAL 35 W DCA 40 SW IPT 15 ENE BGM 40 NNW POU 10 E ISP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE DHN 10 NE MCN 40 NW AND 10 WNW BLF 15 ESE HTS 15 SSW LEX 15 NW PAH 10 NNW JLN 35 S PNC 10 SSE FSI 30 NNW CLL 40 WNW GPT 10 SE DHN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S FHU 35 NE PHX 45 SW P38 15 WNW LOL 30 NNE LMT 20 W DLS 55 NW 4OM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNE CTB 10 NNE LWT 15 WSW SHR 35 SSE RAP 55 E ATY 30 NE AXN 70 W RRT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES INTO ERN PART OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE OVER THE DAY 2 PERIOD...AS MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED NEAR THE HUDSON BAY AND LARGE UPPER RIDGE ERODES OVER THE WRN STATES. NET RESULT WILL BE BROAD WNWLY FLOW ALOFT FROM THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHEAST...WITH A SERIES OF FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PROGRESSING EWD. SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND SWD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE DAY...AHEAD OF WHICH A RATHER MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE IN PLACE. ...GREAT LAKES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS... CONVECTION...POSSIBLY IN THE FORM OF ONE OR TWO SMALL MCSS...WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING OVER THE NRN MS AND MID MO RIVER VALLEYS WEDNESDAY MORNING. NRN MCS WILL LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES AND LIMIT INSTABILITY OVER THIS REGION. HOWEVER...FARTHER SOUTHWEST AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT INTO THE SRN GREAT LAKES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE SHEAR WILL STRENGTHEN WEDNESDAY WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR FROM 35-45 KT /MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHOES/ AS STORMS INITIATE AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT OR NEAR OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER STORMS. A FEW TORNADOES ALSO APPEAR POSSIBLE GIVEN SHAPE OF HODOGRAPHS AND STRENGTH OF LOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR. MOST LIKELY AREA FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO EXTEND FROM SRN WI INTO CENTRAL/ERN IA WHERE COMBINATION OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ARE FORECAST TO BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...SHOULD AIR MASS DESTABILIZE AS EXPECTED IN WAKE OF ANY EARLIER CONVECTION. FARTHER SOUTHWEST...ETA AND ETAKF SUGGEST ENTIRE FRONT ACROSS SRN NEB/NRN KS INTO ERN CO BECOMES CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. GIVEN EXPECTED INSTABILITY...A FEW STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. HOWEVER...SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED DUE TO WEAK SHEAR AND WILL OPT TO FORECAST ONLY LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES ATTM. ...MID ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST... MODELS CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE THE MID ATLANTIC INTO SERN NY DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPES FROM 1000-2000 J/KG...AS SURFACE DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. IN ADDITION...WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND WILL LIKELY SUPPORT SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE MODERATE /I.E. 25-35 KT FROM 0-6 KM/...SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR SMALL LINES OR SUPERCELLS. PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ..EVANS.. 08/17/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 17 17:38:00 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 17 Aug 2004 12:38:00 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200408171737.i7HHbfL08815@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 171735 SWODY2 SPC AC 171734 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1234 PM CDT TUE AUG 17 2004 VALID 181200Z - 191200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E TOL 30 NNW DNV 15 NNE IRK 45 ESE OMA 60 NNE OMA 10 SE MKT 30 S IWD 20 NNW MQT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW PFN 25 WSW MCN 45 W CAE CLT 30 NNE AVL 20 S TYS 45 ENE HSV 15 WSW MSL 35 SSE MKL 30 SSW DYR 40 SSE CGI 15 SSW OWB 20 N SDF 10 SE IND 30 NW HUF 40 NW STL 45 S SZL 15 NE BVO 50 S PNC 40 NNE MWL 25 NNW ACT 15 SSE TPL 45 SSE CLL 30 ENE GLS ...CONT... 50 WSW FHU 20 ENE PHX 35 NNE IGM 45 NE DRA 60 ESE BIH 30 SW BIH 55 NE MER 60 SSW SVE 15 ESE MHS 10 S LMT 25 E 4LW 50 SSE BNO 55 NNE BNO 45 ESE YKM 30 NNE SEA 20 NE BLI ...CONT... 30 N CTB 45 W LWT 40 SE SHR 40 NNW CDR 55 N ATY 30 SE FAR 10 WNW RRT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND WRN/NRN GREAT LAKES... ...SYNOPSIS... STRONG HEIGHT FALL CENTER...CURRENTLY DEVELOPING SOUTH OVER NRN ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTH ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES TONIGHT AND RESULT IN ESTABLISHING STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. ACCOMPANYING THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE A STRONG POLAR FRONT WHICH WILL SWEEP EAST AND SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO THE ERN GREAT LAKES DURING THE PERIOD. WHILE STRONGEST HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP PRIMARILY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...ASCENT ALONG THE TRAILING PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS TO FRONT RANGE SHOULD BE ENHANCED AS REMNANTS OF GREAT BASIN UPPER LOW MOVE EAST FROM THE ROCKIES. A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH PRECEEDING THE POLAR FRONT...AND CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST...WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN WHILE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. ...IA TO UPPER GREAT LAKES... MODEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT ON INCREASING SWLY LOW LEVEL/PREFRONTAL FLOW FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK TO LOCALLY MODERATE INSTABILITY FROM IA TO WI BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. AS THIS INSTABILITY IS REALIZED... STRONG ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEPENING TROUGH AND LINEAR FORCING ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN EXTENSIVE SQUALL LINE EARLY IN THE PERIOD. INCREASINGLY STRONG TROPOSPHERIC FLOW AND RAPID TRANSLATIONAL SPEED OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SUPPORT A FAST MOVING LINE WITH BOWING SEGMENTS PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS FROM IA/WI AREAS EAST INTO NRN IL AND ACROSS MUCH OF MI THROUGH THE LATE EVENING. IF IT APPEARS THAT STRONGER INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...PARTS OF THE REGION MAY REQUIRE AN UPGRADE TO HIGHER SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES IN LATER OUTLOOKS. ...CNTRL/HIGH PLAINS... FRONTAL SURGE WILL SPREAD SOUTH INTO THE HIGH PLAINS AND FRONT RANGE OF CO...AND BISECT KS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...BY EVENING. FRONTAL CIRCULATION AND UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE PRESENCE OF WEAKLY CAPPED AND MODESTLY MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL PROMOTE TSTM DEVELOP OVER THESE AREAS. WHILE A FEW DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL MAY OCCUR WITH THIS CONVECTION...THE BULK OF THESE STORMS WILL BE OCCURRING WITHIN A WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT AND OVERALL SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LIMITED AT THIS TIME. ...MID ATLANTIC... WEAKENING LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH WILL CROSS MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD DURING TIME OF MAXIMUM DIURNAL HEATING. WHILE A FEW PULSE/MULTICELL STORMS ARE POSSIBLE... WEAKENING MID LEVEL FLOW AND SLIGHT HEIGHT RISES ACROSS THE REGION SUGGEST SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED. ..CARBIN.. 08/17/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 18 07:29:41 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 18 Aug 2004 02:29:41 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200408180729.i7I7TSL23743@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 180727 SWODY2 SPC AC 180726 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0226 AM CDT WED AUG 18 2004 VALID 191200Z - 201200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW ACY 30 S CXY 20 SSW IPT 35 SSE UCA 20 ESE GFL 20 ESE EEN GON. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N HVR 40 NNE GCC 40 SSW PIR 35 SSW 9V9 30 SSW ANW 15 WNW AKO 15 ESE GLD 35 WSW FNB 25 SSW BRL 45 S CGX 30 NE MTC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSE DMN 35 SSE SAD 45 WSW PRC 60 NE NID 45 NE SAC 45 NNE LMT 25 NE DLS 50 ENE BLI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE ABY 20 NNW GSP 25 S 5I3 30 E LEX 30 N PAH JBR 40 W GLH 35 SSW JAN 35 NNW PNS 25 NE ABY. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY WILL REMAIN DOMINANT AND WILL MAINTAIN UNSEASONABLY STRONG WLY FLOW FROM THE NRN PLAINS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. THURSDAY. ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING QUICKLY ESEWD ACROSS MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND AND INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WRN PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY AND CENTRAL PLAINS AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO FLOW ALOFT. IN ADDITION...A SLOW MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SPREAD EWD OUT OF THE SRN ROCKIES AND FOCUS WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. ...MID ATLANTIC INTO PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND... FORECAST OF RATHER STRONG HEATING /85-90F SFC TEMPS/ WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT OVER PORTIONS OF THIS REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WHERE SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. THEREFORE...AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY APPEARS LIKELY WITH 1000+ J/KG MLCAPES AS FAR NORTHEAST AS ERN NEW YORK...DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF MARGINAL LAPSE RATES. THIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL NY/PA AND CONTINUE EWD TOWARDS THE COAST THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. COMBINATION OF SURFACE COLD FRONT AND MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL LIKELY AID IN ORGANIZING CONVECTION INTO SMALL LINES/BOW ECHOES. THOUGH MARGINAL LAPSE RATES AND WBZ LEVELS ABOVE 11 KFT WILL LIMIT HAIL SIZE...WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL AND POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO APPEAR SUFFICIENT FOR A SLIGHT RISK DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ...SRN PLAINS INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY... CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BECOME WIDESPREAD AND POSSIBLY DEVELOP INTO ONE OR MORE MCSS OVER THIS AREA DURING THE PERIOD AHEAD OF SLOW MOVING UPPER SYSTEM. DESPITE THE MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS EXPECTED OVER THE REGION...SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE TOO WEAK FOR MORE THAN BRIEF-LIVED GUSTS/HAIL AROUND SEVERE LIMITS. SAME GOES FOR THE OH RIVER VALLEY WHERE SURFACE FRONT MAY FOCUS AREAS OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION...GIVEN DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...SHEAR AND LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN VERY MARGINAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS AND MORE THAN AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT. ..EVANS.. 08/18/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 18 17:42:34 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 18 Aug 2004 12:42:34 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200408181742.i7IHgLL16624@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 181739 SWODY2 SPC AC 181738 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1238 PM CDT WED AUG 18 2004 VALID 191200Z - 201200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSE BWD 40 SSW SJT 50 ENE FST 30 WSW MAF 45 ENE HOB 10 NW LBB 35 ENE PVW 30 W SPS 20 NNW MWL 15 SSE SEP 55 SSE BWD. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE JFK 25 SSW CXY 25 W MGW CMH 15 S MFD 15 WSW YNG 20 SE BGM 10 ESE LEB 30 WSW AUG 25 SSE AUG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WNW CTY 40 N SAV 10 NE CAE 15 ESE AVL 35 NE TYS 35 WNW JKL 50 WNW SDF 35 W MDH 35 NNW ARG 20 S GWO 10 WNW LUL 25 WSW PNS ...CONT... 20 ESE CRP 55 NW LRD ...CONT... 75 SSW P07 15 NNE ELP 30 N DUG 20 WNW PHX 25 E LAS 40 E NID 45 SSW TVL 35 W SVE 60 NE MFR 55 W YKM 30 NE BLI ...CONT... 55 ENE CTB 20 N SHR 45 NE DGW 15 W AIA 20 WSW MCK 25 S HSI 35 N OTM 20 NW AZO 50 NNE MTC. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE NORTHEAST... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER WEST TX... ...SYNOPSIS... FAST MOVING AND DEEP SHORT WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT WILL LIFT NEWD ACROSS SRN QUEBEC ON THURSDAY. IN RESPONSE TO THIS IMPULSE A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND OFFSHORE WITH THE WRN EXTENSION OF THIS FRONT BECOMING QUASISTATIONARY FROM NJ WWD TO THE MIDWEST. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH FROM CANADA INTO THE NRN PLAINS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND BRING A REINFORCING MASS OF UNUSUALLY COLD AIR TO THE NRN BORDER STATES. FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST...THE TRAILING PORTION OF THE FIRST FRONTAL ZONE WILL SINK SOUTH INTO BROAD AND INCREASINGLY MOIST ZONE OF CONFLUENT LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS/TX PNHDL ENEWD TO MO. MEANWHILE...A LARGE AGGREGATE UPPER TROUGH WILL EVOLVE FROM NUMEROUS SRN AND MIDDLE STREAM IMPULSES MOVING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES. WHILE MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFERS IN SUBTLE WAYS WITH THIS SYSTEM... MODEST TO STRONG SUPPORT FOR WIDESPREAD UPWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EAST/NORTHEAST ATOP THE STALLED FRONTAL ZONE OVER THE SRN PLAINS. ...OH/PA TO SRN NEW ENGLAND... DESPITE RELATIVELY WEAK LOW THROUGH MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AIRMASS SHOULD BECOME AT LEAST WEAKLY UNSTABLE WITH DIURNAL HEATING. FURTHERMORE...CONVECTION ALONG THE SHARP BOUNDARY SHOULD BE MAINTAINED BY SHALLOW MAUL LAYER ASSOCIATED WITH NARROW BAND OF FOCUSED UPWARD MOTION. BROKEN SQUALL LINE COINCIDENT WITH INCREASINGLY STRONG LOW THROUGH MID LEVEL WLY FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW WELL-ORGANIZED STORM CLUSTERS WITH BOWING LINE SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS. WITH STRONGEST LARGE SCALE SUPPORT FOR DEEP FRONTAL CIRCULATION MOVING ACROSS CANADA WITH THE UPPER SHORT WAVE...SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO SEVERE POTENTIAL EXISTS WITH WWD EXTENT ALONG THE FRONT. AIRMASS ACROSS WRN PA TO ERN OH WILL BECOME STRONGLY UNSTABLE BY LATE AFTERNOON AND IT APPEARS THAT A FEW INTENSE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THESE AREAS AS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY PERSISTS. ...WEST TX... MODEST AND PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL SLY FLOW AHEAD OF DIGGING UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT RICH MOISTURE NWD ACROSS WEST TX. STRONG INSTABILITY IS ANTICIPATED AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND FRONT BY AFTERNOON. GIVEN FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE SUPPORT FOR UPWARD MOTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION COUPLED WITH DRYLINE AND FRONTAL SURGES ACROSS PARTS OF WEST TX AND THE PNHDL...NUMEROUS TSTMS ARE LIKELY. FCST WIND PROFILES ARE ONLY MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS BUT POCKETS OF GREATER SHEAR ARE POSSIBLE AS WLY MID LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS THROUGH EVENING. EXPECT ONE OR TWO CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION WITH ATTENDANT HAIL AND WIND THREAT. ..CARBIN.. 08/18/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 19 07:30:40 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 19 Aug 2004 02:30:40 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200408190730.i7J7UTL21087@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 190728 SWODY2 SPC AC 190726 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0226 AM CDT THU AUG 19 2004 VALID 201200Z - 211200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE P07 20 SW FST 40 WNW HOB 45 SE CVS 35 WNW ABI 30 NW TPL 20 NE AUS 15 ESE SAT 15 SE DRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NW GGW 45 NNE BIL 25 WNW GCC 25 NNW CDR 30 SW MHN 25 E IML 55 S GLD 30 S EHA 35 NNE CDS 30 SSW OKC 25 WNW TUL 30 S EMP 25 SSE FNB 20 WSW OTM 15 NNW CGX 65 SE OSC ...CONT... 60 WNW 3B1 10 SW BHB ...CONT... 30 SW PSX 35 NW LRD ...CONT... 70 SW GDP 30 NNE ELP 85 WNW TCS 25 NW PRC 40 NNW NID 45 SSE TVL 40 SSW 4LW 45 W PDT 40 NNW 63S. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SWRN INTO CENTRAL TX... ...SWRN TX... OVERALL SETUP FOR SWRN TX IS SIMILAR TO THURSDAY REGARDING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...AS AREA REMAINS WITHIN MODERATE WNWLY FLOW IN WAKE OF SLOW MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ETA AND GFS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH PLACEMENT OF PRIMARY SURFACE FRONT/WIND SHIFT EXTENDING FROM SERN OK/AR SWWD ACROSS CENTRAL AND INTO SWRN TX FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT LOCATION OF CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS EARLY IN THE PERIOD ASSOCIATED WITH SEVERAL WEAK VORT MAXIMA MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL AFFECT LOCATION OF GREATER INSTABILITY AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE DURING THE AFTERNOON. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS MOST LIKELY REGION FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN OVER SWRN TX INTO THE HILL COUNTRY WHERE COLLOCATION OF STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL OCCUR. SHEAR WILL ALSO BE STRONGER AS WNWLY MID LEVEL FLOW OVERSPREADS DEEP ESELY LOW LEVEL WINDS... SUGGESTING STRONGER STORMS MAY BECOME ORGANIZED INTO SUPERCELLS AND MULTICELL CLUSTERS. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL. ...ERN TX INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY AND NRN MID ATLANTIC... SHOULD SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY DEVELOP...AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM COULD ALSO DEVELOP ALONG SURFACE FRONT FROM CENTRAL/ERN TX INTO THE MID MS/OH RIVER VALLEYS AND THE NRN MID ATLANTIC. WEAKER LAPSE RATES/SHEAR WILL LIKELY LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT OVER THIS REGION. HOWEVER...AFTERNOON HEATING MAY SUPPORT SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES FOR ISOLATE DAMAGING WINDS. ..EVANS.. 08/19/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 19 17:11:00 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 19 Aug 2004 12:11:00 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200408191710.i7JHAqL32456@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 191707 SWODY2 SPC AC 191705 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1205 PM CDT THU AUG 19 2004 VALID 201200Z - 211200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW DRT 30 E FST 40 WNW HOB 45 SE CVS 30 N ABI 30 NNW ACT 35 NE AUS 15 ESE SAT 10 SE DRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SW GDP 30 NNE ELP 85 WNW TCS 25 NW PRC 40 NNW NID 45 SSE TVL 40 NE MFR 45 SSE DLS 40 NNW 63S ...CONT... 70 NW GGW 45 NNE BIL 25 WNW GCC 25 NNW CDR 30 SW MHN 25 E IML 55 S GLD 30 S EHA 35 NNE CDS 30 SSW OKC 25 WNW TUL 30 S EMP 25 SSE FNB 20 WSW OTM 15 NNW CGX 65 SE OSC ...CONT... 60 WNW 3B1 10 SW BHB ...CONT... 30 SW PSX 35 NW LRD. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SWRN AND CNTRL TX... ...SYNOPSIS... BROAD...CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME /ANCHORED BY DEEP LOW INVOF OF HUDSON BAY/ IS FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS THROUGH THE DAY 2 PERIOD. WITHIN THIS PATTERN...SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER N TX THIS MORNING WILL LIFT NEWD FROM MO ACROSS THE OH VALLEY...WHILE SEVERAL WEAK PERTURBATIONS TRANSLATE SEWD THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN W INTO THE CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT /LIKELY EXTENDING FROM NEW ENGLAND SWWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY INTO SWRN TX BY LATE AFTERNOON/ WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT. ...SWRN/CNTRL TX... CO-LOCATION OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES /7-8 C/KM/ ATOP BOUNDARY-LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION ALONG AND S OF COLD FRONT. WITH TIME...CLOUDS SHOULD TEND TO DISSIPATE/MIX OUT IN WAKE OF SYSTEM LIFTING NEWD AWAY FROM REGION...ALLOWING FOR INCREASED INSOLATION WITH AFTERNOON MLCAPES INCREASING TO 1500-2500 J/KG. A SERIES OF WEAK MID-LEVEL PERTURBATIONS APPROACHING FROM THE NW...FRONTAL CONVERGENCE...AS WELL AS POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW...SHOULD ALL CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. STRONGLY VEERING WIND PROFILES INVOF OF FRONTAL ZONE AND RESULTANT 35-40KTS OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS WITH INCIPIENT STORM DEVELOPMENT. EXPECTED ANA-FRONTAL CHARACTER OF BOUNDARY SUGGESTS THAT STORMS WILL EITHER BECOME ELEVATED ABOVE FRONTAL ZONE /WITH INHERENT LARGE HAIL THREAT/ OR EVOLVE INTO FORWARD-PROPAGATING STORM CLUSTERS ALONG FRONTAL ZONE WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. ...OH VALLEY INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND... ISENTROPIC ASCENT INTO ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET STREAK OVER SERN CANADA IN CONJUNCTION WITH FORCING AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING THROUGH THE OH VALLEY SHOULD SUSTAIN LARGE PRECIPITATION SHIELD NEWD ACROSS REGION. RELATIVELY POOR LAPSE RATES /AOB MOIST ADIABATIC/ WILL LARGELY LIMIT DESTABILIZATION OF DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS...HOWEVER MOIST BOUNDARY-LAYER /I.E. DEWPOINTS OF 65-70F/ WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES APPROACHING 1000-1500 J/KG. INSPECTION OF FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS THAT ETA BMJ INSTABILITY FORECASTS MAY BE TOO HIGH OWING TO ACTIVE SHALLOW CONVECTION SCHEME. NONETHELESS...POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER EPISODES /NAMELY DAMAGING WINDS/ WILL EXIST ALONG FRONTAL ZONE WITHIN MODERATELY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THIS IS ESPECIALLY THE CASE AHEAD OF MIGRATORY LOW ATTENDANT TO MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH WILL DEVELOP NEWD ALONG FRONTAL ZONE...AS WELL ANY DOWNSTREAM LOCATIONS THAT MAY LOCALLY EXPERIENCE STRONGER DAYTIME HEATING AND RESULTANT HIGHER INSTABILITY. POOR LAPSE RATES/LIMITED INSTABILITY AS A RESULT OF EXPECTED WIDESPREAD CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION PRECLUDES CATEGORICAL RISK ATTM. DAY 1 UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK MAY WELL BE REQUIRED OVER PORTIONS OF DISCUSSION AREA ONCE FINER-SCALE DETAILS BECOME MORE CLEAR. ..MEAD.. 08/19/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 20 07:15:31 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 20 Aug 2004 02:15:31 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200408200716.i7K7GSL01796@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 200710 SWODY2 SPC AC 200709 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0209 AM CDT FRI AUG 20 2004 VALID 211200Z - 221200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NE CTB 35 W LWT 40 N WRL 20 SSE CPR 30 SW BFF 40 WNW MHN 30 N LBF 25 WNW GAG 10 ENE CSM 10 NE MLC 70 ESE HRO 15 ESE CKV 25 ESE AOO 30 W ALB 30 WNW EFK ...CONT... 15 ESE PSX 20 SE DRT ...CONT... 65 WNW MRF 45 NW GDP 65 NNW SVC 25 ENE PRC 55 WSW LAS 60 ENE MER 20 SE MHS 30 SSW ONP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 NE MQT 25 S RHI 35 NE MCW 10 NE FSD 15 ESE PIR 50 WNW Y22 70 NNE OLF. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...NRN PLAINS INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES... MODELS IN AGREEMENT IN MOVING FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ESEWD ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES SATURDAY...THOUGH THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PLACEMENT. ETA...ETAKF AND SHORT-RANGE ENSEMBLE MEAN ALL DEEPEN A SURFACE LOW OVER N-CENTRAL ND WHICH TRACKS EWD INTO NRN/CENTRAL MN OVERNIGHT...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE LOW NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. HOWEVER...THERE IS AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING A SURFACE TROUGH FROM THE LOW CENTER INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE ACROSS THE NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO THIS SYSTEM AS SLY 50+ KT H85 JET DEVELOPS INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL ALSO AID IN MOISTURE TRANSPORT WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS POSSIBLY REACHING 50F NEAR LOW CENTER BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. THE INCREASE IN LARGE SCALE ASCENT/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...COMBINED WITH STRONG HEATING ALONG AND WEST OF SURFACE TROUGH...MAY WEAKEN CAPPING AND ALLOW A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY. STRENGTH OF SHEAR WARRANTS AT LEAST MENTION OF A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE QUALITY/AMOUNT REMAINS QUESTIONABLE AND LIMITS CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPING SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT VIGOROUS MOIST CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON. IT IS MORE LIKELY THAT CONVECTION WILL INCREASING WITHIN LOW LEVEL WAA REGIME AFTER DARK. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN MEAGER AND LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT. GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES ABOUT SURFACE LOW PLACEMENT AND AVAILABLE INSTABILITY...WILL ONLY FORECAST LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES ATTM. ...CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS... LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STEEP ACROSS THIS REGION AS STRONG AFTERNOON HEATING OCCURS...WITH MLCAPES LIKELY AROUND 1500 J/KG. WEAK IMPULSES ALOFT MAY SHIFT SEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES DURING THE DAY AND AID IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE LEE TROUGH. IN ADDITION...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN MODEST /I.E. 20-30 KT/ AS WNWLY MID LEVEL WINDS OVERSPREAD SSELY UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW. THIS MAY ALLOW A FEW CLUSTERS TO FORM AND SUSTAIN AT LEAST A LOW PROBABILITY THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS ACTIVITY MOVES ESEWD THROUGH THE EVENING. ...NRN MID ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND COAST... MODELS CONSISTENT IN MOVING SURFACE COLD FRONT OFF THE COAST BY THE EARLY EVENING. REGION MAY REMAIN RATHER CLOUDY DUE TO PERSISTENT CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS WILL SUPPORT A THREAT OF ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON SHOULD POCKETS OF HEATING OCCUR. ..EVANS.. 08/20/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 20 17:18:38 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 20 Aug 2004 12:18:38 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200408201718.i7KHIZL18414@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 201716 SWODY2 SPC AC 201714 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1214 PM CDT FRI AUG 20 2004 VALID 211200Z - 221200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NE CTB 35 W LWT 40 N WRL 20 SSE CPR 30 SW BFF 35 ESE AIA 35 E IML 25 WNW GAG 10 ENE CSM 10 NE MLC 70 ESE HRO 15 ESE CKV 25 ESE AOO 30 W ALB 30 WNW EFK ...CONT... 15 ESE PSX 20 SE DRT ...CONT... 65 WNW MRF 45 NW GDP 65 NNW SVC 25 ENE PRC 55 WSW LAS 60 ENE MER 20 SE MHS 30 SSW ONP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 NE MQT 25 S RHI 30 S MCW SUX 35 WSW 9V9 50 WNW Y22 50 N GGW. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...NRN HIGH PLAINS INTO WRN GREAT LAKES... SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING ONTO THE SWRN BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY TRANSLATE SEWD...REACHING THE NRN HIGH PLAINS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND WRN GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY MORNING. ATTENDANT SURFACE CYCLONE INITIALLY FORMING IN THE LEE OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES WILL DEEPEN AS IT CONCURRENTLY DEVELOPS SEWD ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. MEANWHILE...TRAILING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP SEWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THOUGH A PLUME OF STEEP LOW- TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7.5-8.5 C/KM WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE REGION...IT APPEARS THAT THE LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT THE DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION /I.E. SBCAPES AOB 300-400 J/KG/ ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. NONETHELESS...DEEPLY-MIXED CHARACTER OF BOUNDARY-LAYER OBSERVED IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT DOES SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP. STRENGTHENING SWLY LLJ ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY SHOULD SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN NOCTURNAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT SATURDAY NIGHT FROM ERN SD ACROSS MN INTO PARTS OF WI. HOWEVER...LACK OF QUALITY LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT INSTABILITY AND OVERALL SEVERE THREAT. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF SYNOPTIC SYSTEM...DEGREE OF MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE MONITORED. A SLIGHT RISK MAY BE REQUIRED ON SUBSEQUENT DAY 1 OUTLOOKS IF IT BECOMES APPARENT THAT GREATER INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP THAN IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED. ...CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS... LEE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SHARPEN SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING SURFACE LOW ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER. INCREASING SLY/SELY SURFACE WINDS E OF THIS FEATURE WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE BENEATH RATHER STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7-8 C/KM. WHEN COUPLED WITH STRONG DAYTIME HEATING...EXPECT AIRMASS TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES INCREASING TO 1000-2000 J/KG. SUSTAINED CONVERGENCE ALONG LEE TROUGH SHOULD LEAD TO A GRADUAL EROSION OF CAP AND SUBSEQUENT INCREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE ACROSS PARTS OF ERN CO/WRN KS SWD INTO ERN NM AND WRN TX. FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NW /LIKELY FEATURE CURRENTLY OVER SERN ORE/ SHOULD ALSO AID IN AN INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE/INTENSITY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST WITH STRONGEST STORMS...HOWEVER RATHER WEAK DEEP-LAYER SHEAR /AOB 25-30KT/ SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. ...MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES... THOUGH WIDESPREAD CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION SHOULD EFFECTIVELY RETARD HEATING/DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL FOR WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY FROM THE DELMARVA SWD ACROSS ERN NC. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SHOULD OCCUR ALONG AND AHEAD OF FRONT THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS...ON TRAILING EDGE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHEARING OUT ACROSS THE NERN STATES. GIVEN THE MODERATELY STRONG WSWLY FLOW OBSERVED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF MAINLY ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS. ..MEAD.. 08/20/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 21 07:47:00 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 21 Aug 2004 02:47:00 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200408210747.i7L7l6L32450@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 210744 SWODY2 SPC AC 210742 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0242 AM CDT SAT AUG 21 2004 VALID 221200Z - 231200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WNW ANJ 25 NNW LNR 10 S RST 10 ESE MSP CMX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S DMN 20 NNW SVC 55 ENE INW U17 50 N BCE 10 W MLF 60 E TPH 30 SSW U31 40 NW U31 10 NE WMC 85 SSE BNO 45 S RDM 35 ENE SLE 10 N BLI ...CONT... 65 NNW DVL 10 N JMS 65 NE ABR 35 E AXN 35 ENE ELO ...CONT... 45 NNE MTC SBN CMI 35 W EVV 10 WNW HOP 10 SE CSV HKY 25 ESE ECG. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER UPPER MI AND WI... ...UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO IA... UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY DROPPING SWD TOWARD NRN PARTS OF SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA IS FORECAST TO TURN EWD ACROSS ONTARIO TOMORROW AND REACH WRN QUEBEC BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD ACROSS ONTARIO DURING THE DAY BEFORE LIFTING NEWD INTO CENTRAL QUEBEC SUNDAY NIGHT. SURFACE COLD FRONT TRAILING SWWD FROM THE LOW WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY REACHING A LOWER MI/IA NEB LINE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. MODELS INDICATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE NWD AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE MID 60S FROM PARTS OF UPPER MI SWWD INTO IA AND ERN NEB. PLUME OF STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL EXTEND EWD FROM THE PLAINS TOWARD THE MS VALLEY AND ENHANCE INSTABILITY WITHIN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS. SBCAPE IS FORECAST DURING THE AFTERNOON TO RANGE FROM 2500-3000 J/KG OVER IA DECREASING NEWD TO 1000-1500 J/KG OVER NERN WI INTO UPPER MI. A BAND OF STRONG STORMS MAY BE ONGOING EARLY IN THE PERIOD FROM WRN UPPER MI INTO WRN WI IN ASSOCIATION WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK MOVING ACROSS SRN ONTARIO. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EWD DURING THE DAY WITH POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLE HAIL. CONVECTION WILL BE SLOWER TO DEVELOP FARTHER SWWD ALONG THE COLD FRONT UNTIL STRONG HEATING HELPS WEAKEN THE CAP BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING. MODELS OFFER DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS CONCERNING CONVECTIVE INITIATION...BUT THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME THREAT FOR STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF PREDICTED INSTABILITY. GENERALLY WEAK WINDS ALOFT AND MINIMAL VERTICAL SHEAR WILL LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL. ...MT INTO ND... STRONG UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TOMORROW REACHING THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION BY 23/12Z. A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD ACROSS MT WITH ELY LOW LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF THE LOW TRANSPORTING MARGINAL MOISTURE WWD INTO THE REGION. STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH COUPLED WITH PRONOUNCED VERTICAL SHEAR WILL AID DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL MT BY MID AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EWD TOWARD ERN MT DURING THE EVENING HOURS...AND MOVE INTO ND DURING THE NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL JET AND ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION INCREASE AFTER DARK. PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE WEAK MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...STRENGTH OF DYNAMIC FORCING SUGGESTS THREAT FOR ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WITH A FEW CELLS OVER MT...WITH THREAT TRANSITIONING TO PRIMARILY SMALL HAIL DURING THE NIGHT AS CONVECTION BECOMES INCREASINGLY ELEVATED NORTH OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT. ..WEISS.. 08/21/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 21 16:45:19 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 21 Aug 2004 11:45:19 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200408211645.i7LGjNL08816@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 211643 SWODY2 SPC AC 211641 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1141 AM CDT SAT AUG 21 2004 VALID 221200Z - 231200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SW ALO 15 S FOD 20 S FRM 15 NE MKT 40 NW EAU 30 WNW RHI 40 SW IMT 25 NW OSH 25 W DBQ 45 SW ALO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SE OSC 10 S CGX 20 WNW UIN 45 SSE SZL 30 SSE UNO 45 W CSV 45 NE HKY 25 ESE ECG ...CONT... 65 NNW DVL 10 N JMS 65 NE ABR 35 E AXN 35 ENE ELO ...CONT... 40 SE ELP 35 WSW 4CR GNT U17 50 N BCE 10 W MLF 60 E TPH 30 SSW U31 40 NW U31 10 NE WMC 85 SSE BNO 45 S RDM 35 ENE SLE 10 N BLI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE WRN GREAT LAKES/UPPER MIDWEST... ...UPPER GREAT LAKES SWWD INTO IA/NEB... SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER SRN ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM SWRN ONTARIO/NRN MN EWD ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AND INTO QUEBEC SUNDAY NIGHT. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP NEWD FROM VICINITY OF THE MN ARROWHEAD INTO ERN ONTARIO BY EARLY EVENING WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHING SEWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY/WRN GREAT LAKES. CLUSTERS OF STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING INITIALLY ALONG FRONT FROM LS SWWD INTO SRN MN. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT PERSISTENT CLOUDINESS/PRECIPITATION WILL TEND TO LIMIT DESTABILIZATION AND OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES/UP OF MI. FARTHER SW...DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S BENEATH PLUME OF MODESTLY STEEP /7-7.5 C/KM/ LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING INSTABILITY WITH SWWD EXTENT. EXPECT AFTERNOON MLCAPES TO RANGE FROM AROUND 1000 J/KG OVER CNTRL WI...TO 1500-2000 J/KG FROM CNTRL IA INTO ERN NEB. SUSTAINED CONVERGENCE AND A WARMING BOUNDARY-LAYER SHOULD SUPPORT THE SWWD DEVELOPMENT OF TSTMS ALONG FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM PARTS OF NERN/CNTRL WI INTO PORTIONS OF NEB/IA. THOUGH STRONGEST WIND FIELDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST TO N OF STRONGER INSTABILITY...IT APPEARS THAT A MODEST SHEAR/INSTABILITY COMBINATION WILL DEVELOP FROM CNTRL WI INTO SERN MN/NERN IA. HERE...A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ...NRN HIGH PLAINS... VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH /EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OFF THE B.C./WA COASTS/ WILL AMPLIFY AND BECOME PROGRESSIVELY NEGATIVELY-TILTED ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. IN RESPONSE...A SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN OVER CNTRL MT WITH ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SHARPENING ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES. WRN EXTENSION OF FRONTAL ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH GREAT LAKES SYSTEM WILL LIKELY STALL BEFORE RETREATING NWD AS A WARM FRONT OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. THOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LIMITED...STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO A WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS CNTRL/ERN MT WITH AFTERNOON MLCAPES INCREASING TO AROUND 500-700 J/KG. STRONG UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AHEAD OF DEEPENING SURFACE/MID-LEVEL SYSTEMS IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG HIGHER TERRAIN BY AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY WILL THEN SPREAD EWD/NEWD ACROSS CNTRL/ERN MT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODERATELY STRONG ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR /I.E. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 45-55KTS/...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. THE FORECAST WEAK INSTABILITY PRECLUDES A CATEGORICAL RISK ATTM. HOWEVER...IF IT BECOMES APPARENT THAT AIRMASS WILL BECOME MORE UNSTABLE THAN IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED...A SLIGHT RISK MAY BE REQUIRED ON UPCOMING DAY 1 OUTLOOKS. ...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS... COMBINATION OF DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND RATHER STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7-8 C/KM ARE EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPES INCREASING TO 2000-3000 J/KG. LATEST SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE ALL FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING DEEP CONVECTION ALONG LEE TROUGH OVER PORTIONS OF SWRN/S-CNTRL KS INTO ERN TX PNHDL/NWRN TX AND WRN OK. THOUGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL REMAIN RATHER WEAK /AOB 20-25KTS/ THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT A FEW STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR LARGE HAIL. ..MEAD.. 08/21/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 22 07:39:31 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 22 Aug 2004 02:39:31 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200408220739.i7M7ddL20567@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 220737 SWODY2 SPC AC 220735 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0235 AM CDT SUN AUG 22 2004 VALID 231200Z - 241200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE INL BRD 20 ENE SPW 20 NW OMA 10 SSW GRI 30 S BBW 20 WSW ANW PIR 35 ENE BIS 65 NNW DVL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSE DRT 45 SSE BWD DAL DUA 30 NNE OKC GCK SNY LAR 45 ENE CAG 10 SE MTJ 15 SW DUG ...CONT... 20 S YUM IGM SGU 60 SSE ELY 60 SW ELY 60 SE TVL 40 NE SCK 35 N RBL 35 E PDX 35 E BLI ...CONT... 25 S HUL PSF AVP PIT CMH LUK 10 NNW LEX LOZ FLO 10 SSE CRE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE NRN PLAINS INTO WRN MN... ...NRN PLAINS INTO WRN MN... MODELS INDICATE SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW ENTERING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL LIFT NEWD FROM THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES TOMORROW AS BAND OF STRONGER SWLY WINDS ALOFT MOVES ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS REGION. A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM SERN MT/NERN WY INTO CENTRAL SD DURING THE AFTERNOON...THEN REMAIN OVER ERN SD AND WEAKEN DURING THE NIGHT AS SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTS NEWD AWAY FROM THE AREA. A WARM FRONT EXTENDING SEWD FROM THE LOW WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NWD FROM IA INTO SRN MN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...WHILE A LEE TROUGH WILL EXTEND SWD OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. NOCTURNAL CONVECTION FROM DAY 1 IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING OVER PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS EARLY IN THE PERIOD. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NEWD INTO ERN ND BY AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AXIS WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED EAST OF THE LEE TROUGH FROM CENTRAL ERN/NEB INTO THE ERN DAKOTAS AND WRN MN...WHERE SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE MID 60S AND MLCAPE OF 2000-2500 J/KG ARE EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON. DURING THE AFTERNOON...NEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL AND ERN SD WITHIN THE ENHANCED CONVERGENCE ZONE NEAR THE SD SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONT. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP SWD ALONG THE LEE TROUGH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHERE LARGER MLCAPE (2500-3000 J/KG) IS PREDICTED. MOST FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE CONFINED TO THE DAKOTAS AND NWRN MN IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE STRONGER SWLY WINDS ALOFT...SUGGESTING MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT OVER ERN SD INTO SERN ND. THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS IT MOVES ENEWD INTO PARTS OF WRN AND EVENTUALLY CENTRAL MN...ALTHOUGH SEVERE POTENTIAL IS ANTICIPATED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER 04-06Z. ..WEISS.. 08/22/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 22 17:32:06 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 22 Aug 2004 12:32:06 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200408221733.i7MHXOL09759@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 221729 SWODY2 SPC AC 221728 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1228 PM CDT SUN AUG 22 2004 VALID 231200Z - 241200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE INL BRD 20 ENE SPW 20 SSW EMP 10 NW PNC 45 WSW END 45 E LBL 25 SSW MCK 15 ENE PHP 60 NNE MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 ENE ELO 55 NNE EAU 25 SE OSH 30 NE GRR 40 ENE MTC ...CONT... 25 S HUL PSF AVP PIT 20 NNW ZZV 25 WNW UNI 35 W HTS 20 SSE 5I3 SOP 15 E EWN ...CONT... 50 SSE DRT 35 SSE BWD MWL 45 WSW SPS 20 NNW CDS 55 ESE LAA 25 SW SNY LAR 25 S VEL 15 WNW 4BL 30 SW DUG ...CONT... 15 E CZZ 45 SSE LAS 45 S P38 60 SSE ELY 40 SSE EKO 15 NW NFL 50 W RNO 40 S RBL 45 W RBL 10 WSW CEC. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN PLAINS SWD INTO PARTS OF KS AND OK... ...NRN PLAINS/NEB... NEGATIVELY-TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING MID AND HIGH-LEVEL JET STREAKS ARE FORECAST TO LIFT NEWD FROM THE NRN ROCKIES/NRN HIGH PLAINS INTO S-CNTRL CANADA MONDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. PRIMARY SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP NEWD FROM SRN INTO CNTRL SASKATCHEWAN PRIOR TO OCCLUDING. MEANWHILE...A SECONDARY SURFACE CYCLONE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS NERN WY/WRN SD DURING THE AFTERNOON BEFORE MOVING INTO CNTRL SD BY EARLY EVENING. ALSO AT THIS TIME...ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM CNTRL ND THROUGH THIS LOW SWWD INTO SRN WY...WHILE WARM FRONT STRETCHES SEWD FROM LOW THROUGH NWRN IA INTO NRN IL. FINALLY...LEE TROUGH WILL INTENSIFY SWD THROUGH THE NEB SANDHILLS INTO WRN KS. NOCTURNAL TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING INITIALLY OVER PARTS OF ERN MT/WRN AND CNTRL DAKOTAS LARGELY N OF WARM FRONT WITHIN ZONE OF STRONG WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG 40-50KT SLY LLJ. WITH NWD RETREAT OF WARM FRONT AND DEVELOPMENT OF SECONDARY SURFACE LOW...AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY MOIST/UNSTABLE ACROSS EXPANDING WARM SECTOR FROM WRN/CNTRL NEB NWD INTO CNTRL SD WITH AFTERNOON MLCAPES INCREASING TO 1000-2000 J/KG. INCREASED LARGE-SCALE FORCING AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM COUPLED WITH ENHANCED CONVERGENCE ALONG AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARIES SHOULD AID IN SURFACE-BASED TSTM DEVELOPMENT BY AFTERNOON FROM WRN/CNTRL SD SWD INTO N-CNTRL NEB. FORECAST SOUNDINGS /ESPECIALLY THOSE E OF SURFACE LOW AND ALONG WARM FRONT/ SUGGEST SUFFICIENTLY STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. WHILE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS OWING TO STEEP LAPSE RATES AND RELATIVELY HIGH CLOUD BASES...POTENTIAL FOR A TORNADO OR TWO WILL EXIST NEAR SURFACE LOW SEWD ALONG WARM FRONT WHERE LOCALLY STRONGER SHEAR AND LOWER LFC/LCL HEIGHTS WILL BE CO-LOCATED. STORMS SHOULD TEND TO COALESCE INTO CLUSTERS WHILE SPREADING EWD ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS INTO WRN MN MONDAY NIGHT. WEAKENING INSTABILITY WITH TIME AND EWD EXTENT SUGGEST AN OVERALL DECREASE IN SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ...KS/OK... LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE IS FORECAST TO SHARPEN AND SLOWLY MOVE/MIX EWD THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS PARTS OF WRN KS/TX PNHDL. TO THE E...MOIST BOUNDARY-LAYER /I.E. DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S/ IN CONJUNCTION WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE TO STRONG AFTERNOON INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES APPROACHING 2000-3000 J/KG. WHILE STRONGEST DYNAMIC FORCING WILL REMAIN N OF REGION...STRONG HEATING/CONVERGENCE INVOF TROUGH AND INCREASING ASCENT IN LEFT EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET STREAK APPROACHING FROM SRN ROCKIES MAY AID IN LOCAL CAP REMOVAL AND INITIATION OF DEEP CONVECTION DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AHEAD OF TROUGH/DRYLINE INDICATE FAVORABLE VEERING PROFILES WITH 0-3KM SRH VALUES OF 100-200 M2/S2. THOUGH MID-LEVEL WIND FIELDS ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG /AOB 25KTS/ STRENGTHENING FLOW IN THE 8-10KM LAYER /ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE TX PNHDL INTO WRN OK/ MAY SUPPORT A FEW SUPERCELL STRUCTURES GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY AND LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE. LARGE HAIL APPEARS LIKELY WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS...IN ADDITION TO A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. STRENGTHENING BRANCH OF LLJ ACROSS WRN TX/OK INTO SRN KS MAY SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER COOLING BOUNDARY-LAYER AND RESULTANT DECREASE IN INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. ..MEAD.. 08/22/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 23 07:25:19 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 23 Aug 2004 02:25:19 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200408230725.i7N7PjL25260@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 230723 SWODY2 SPC AC 230720 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0220 AM CDT MON AUG 23 2004 VALID 241200Z - 251200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW DLH 30 WNW EAU 30 E ALO 30 N SZL 30 NNE BVO P28 HLC BBW 35 SW MHE 45 S FAR 50 WNW HIB 20 SSW DLH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW ERI CAK PKB GSO 15 S ILM ...CONT... 10 SE 7R4 LFK BWD 65 NW ABI CDS DDC GLD LHX ROW 10 S ELP ...CONT... 65 SW TUS INW U17 DPG BOI PUW 10 NW BLI ...CONT... 65 WNW HVR GTF SHR PHP ABR 40 W RRT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM EASTERN KS INTO PARTS OF MN/WI... ...NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST REGION... UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST STATES WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND BROADEN ON TUESDAY...WITH BAND OF MODERATELY STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS STRETCHING FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. A PERSISTENT SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS STATES WILL MAINTAIN SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS FROM EASTERN OK INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY...WITH DEEP LAYER AND LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED/SEVERE STORMS ALONG THIS AXIS. THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT OVER THE SLIGHT RISK AREA WILL BE QUESTIONABLE DUE TO UNKNOWN DURATION/EXTENT OF DAY1 CONVECTION. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT A MODERATELY TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT OVER PARTS OF EASTERN SD/EASTERN NEB/WESTERN MN/WESTERN IA ON DAY2. SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THIS REGION WITH THE THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN STRONGER CELLS. OTHER MORE ISOLATED SEVERE ACTIVITY MAY OCCUR ALONG FRONT OVER NORTHERN MN...AND OVERNIGHT AS STORMS SPREAD INTO WESTERN WI/EASTERN IA. ...CENTRAL PLAINS... MAIN SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST OVER CENTRAL KS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. CONVERGENCE ALONG COLD FRONT FROM LOW NORTHWARD INTO NEB/SD WILL LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER...SOUTHWARD DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION INTO OK AND NORTHWEST TX IS MUCH LESS CERTAIN. MODELS SUGGEST THAT PIECE OF UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CA WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY DAY2. THIS MAY AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED STORMS. IF SO...PARAMETERS APPEAR SUFFICIENT FOR A RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. WILL ONLY OUTLOOK LOW PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME...BUT AREA MAY REQUIRE UPGRADE IN LATER OUTLOOKS. ..HART.. 08/23/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 23 17:06:29 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 23 Aug 2004 12:06:29 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200408231706.i7NH6mL13195@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 231705 SWODY2 SPC AC 231702 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1202 PM CDT MON AUG 23 2004 VALID 241200Z - 251200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DLH EAU 25 SSW LNR 25 E MLI UIN 35 NNE SZL 30 NE BVO P28 60 SW HLC 20 ESE LIC 30 ESE FCL 35 WSW BFF 45 W VTN 10 SSW HON 30 W AXN 40 SW HIB DLH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 WNW HVR GTF SHR 35 WNW PHP 15 NNW ABR 70 NNW TVF ...CONT... 25 ENE CLE 30 N PKB BKW 35 SSW GSO CRE ...CONT... 15 SSE CRP 35 WNW VCT 30 NW CLL 50 NE ACT 15 ENE SEP 50 ENE SJT 30 ENE BGS 40 NE PVW 40 ESE LBL 35 WSW GCK 50 SSW LAA 30 SW TCC ROW 10 S ELP ...CONT... 70 ESE YUM 50 WSW GCN 15 S BCE 10 NW MLF 55 NW DRA 35 NW BIH 25 W RNO 20 SSE BNO 25 SSE PDT 10 SE EAT 15 SE BLI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY... ...PLAINS... UNUSUAL LATE AUG PATTERN WILL MORE CLOSELY RESEMBLE LATE SPRING ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS WEEK. BROAD TROUGHING ACROSS THE WRN U.S. WILL CONTINUE WITH EPISODIC SHORTWAVES EXPECTED TO EJECT ACROSS THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY. THIS WILL ENSURE LEE TROUGH WILL REMAIN FIRMLY ESTABLISHED FROM NWRN TX...NWD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHERE MORE E-W VARIABILITY WILL BE NOTED DUE TO TRANSITORY SHORTWAVE INFLUENCES. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE HAS RETURNED NWD EAST OF THE LEE TROUGH AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MODERATE TO EXTREME INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS STRONG HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO CONVECTIVE INITIATION ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHERE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE STRONG VEERING...AND ADEQUATE VERTICAL SPEED SHEAR TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS. MOST LIKELY REGION OF INITIATION WILL OCCUR OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS FROM NERN CO INTO WRN NEB WITHIN WEAK UPSLOPE REGION WHERE MINIMAL INHIBITION WILL EXIST. ANOTHER ZONE OF POSSIBLE INITIATION WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF SFC LOW OVER NRN KS ALONG E-W BOUNDARY. IT APPEARS LARGE HAIL...POSSIBLY VERY LARGE...WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS IT EVOLVES AND SPREADS EWD ACROSS PRIMARILY THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY LATE IN THE PERIOD. INCREASING LLJ INTO SERN NEB/NRN MO WILL PROVE RESPONSIBLE FOR EWD EXPANSION OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INTO THIS REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT. FARTHER NORTH...LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT NEWD QUICKLY INTO MANITOBA/WRN ONTARIO EARLY IN THE PERIOD. FORCING WILL GRADUALLY WANE SWD ALONG THE BOUNDARY INTO MN WHERE DIURNAL HEATING WILL BE PRIMARILY RESPONSIBLE FOR ISOLATED LATE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. ..DARROW.. 08/23/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 24 07:28:40 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 24 Aug 2004 02:28:40 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200408240729.i7O7T9L32625@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 240726 SWODY2 SPC AC 240724 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0224 AM CDT TUE AUG 24 2004 VALID 251200Z - 261200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE RRT BRD MSP MSN BMI STL JLN EMP GRI MHE JMS 65 NNW DVL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N BVE JAN TXK JCT 15 NW DRT ...CONT... ELP HOB LTS PNC RSL LBF SNY DEN EGE RKS MLD OWY LMT 10 NW OTH ...CONT... ROC MGW DAN GSB HSE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID MS VALLEY INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND WESTERN MN... BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL BE PRESENT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS/ROCKIES ON WEDNESDAY...WITH RELATIVELY STRONG WESTERLY MID LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. MAIN SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO EASTERN KS/WESTERN MO. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS EAST OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES FOR ORGANIZED/SEVERE STORMS. A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS ALSO EXPECTED OVER THE MID MS VALLEY AND UPPER MIDWEST...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OVER 3000 J/KG FROM MO/KS INTO MN/ND. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OVER EASTERN ND/SD ALONG COLD FRONT...WITH ACTIVITY SPREADING EASTWARD INTO MN DURING THE EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND PERHAPS ISOLATED TORNADOES. FARTHER SOUTH...ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS MAY INITIATE ALONG DRYLINE OVER EASTERN NEB/KS. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A STRONGER CAP THAN FARTHER NORTH...BUT STRONG HEATING WEST OF DRYLINE COUPLED WITH APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL AID DEVELOPMENT. ALTHOUGH AREAL COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL BE LESS THAN IN THE DAKOTAS...SHEAR/CAPE COMBINATIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD EASTWARD DURING THE NIGHT ACROSS IA/MO AND POSSIBLY INTO WESTERN IL. ..HART.. 08/24/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 24 17:16:55 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 24 Aug 2004 12:16:55 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200408241717.i7OHHNL17877@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 241715 SWODY2 SPC AC 241712 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1212 PM CDT TUE AUG 24 2004 VALID 251200Z - 261200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE RRT BRD MSP MSN BMI 15 NW STL TBN 30 SSW JLN 25 W BVO 25 SSW ICT 10 NNE SLN 30 N EAR 25 S 9V9 25 SSW BIS 70 NE ISN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE ROC MGW 40 NNW GSO 30 WSW GSB 45 E EWN ...CONT... 45 SSW HOU 45 SE LFK 35 SSW MLU 10 SE ELD TXK JCT 15 NW DRT ...CONT... 10 ESE ELP 35 SSW HOB 15 WNW CDS 15 NNE P28 35 SSE RSL 30 SSE HLC 10 WNW GLD 25 SE DEN 50 SSW CAG 35 SSE EVW 45 NNW ENV 40 WSW WMC 50 SSE LMT 10 NW OTH. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS AND MS VALLEY REGION... ...CENTRAL PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY... STRONG UPPER SPEED MAX WILL DIG ESEWD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS UPSTREAM FEATURE WILL ALLOW AZ SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO EJECT NEWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS INTO ERN KS/MO WHERE IT SHOULD ENHANCE THE CONVECTIVE THREAT BY LATE AFTERNOON. LATE DAY1 MCS ACTIVITY OVER THE LOWER MO VALLEY SHOULD MAINTAIN A SFC BOUNDARY FROM CENTRAL MO...WNWWD INTO NRN KS WHERE IT'S EXPECTED TO INTERSECT A SLOWLY ADVANCING DRYLINE. INCREASED WLY DEEP LAYER FLOW SHOULD FORCE THE DRYLINE A BIT FARTHER EAST WEDNESDAY AS STRONG SFC HEATING ENHANCES MIXING. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR WELL INTO THE UPPER 90S ALONG THE DRYLINE...WHICH WILL PROVE ADEQUATE IN HIGH BASED CONVECTIVE INITIATION BY LATE AFTERNOON. WITH EXTREME BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY EXPECTED ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR TO THE EAST...4000-5000 J/KG SBCAPE...LATEST THINKING IS THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD ROOT INTO VERY MOIST AIRMASS AND BECOME SEVERE WITH SUPERCELL STRUCTURES LIKELY. VERY LARGE HAIL APPEARS POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS...ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES...AT LEAST THROUGH MID EVENING BEFORE CLUSTERING AND MCS EVOLUTION OCCURS OVER SRN IA/NRN MO LATE. ...NRN PLAINS... EXIT REGION OF UPPER SPEED MAX WILL ENHANCE VERTICAL ASCENT ACROSS THE DAKOTAS BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH A MORE FOCUSED LLJ SHOULD AID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. LARGE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST STORMS WHICH SHOULD LINGER THROUGH 12Z AS UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS TOWARD THE UPPER MS VALLEY. ..DARROW.. 08/24/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 25 06:49:41 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 25 Aug 2004 01:49:41 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200408250650.i7P6oHL13840@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 250648 SWODY2 SPC AC 250646 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0146 AM CDT WED AUG 25 2004 VALID 261200Z - 271200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MTW JVL ALO MCW MSP 55 SW IWD IMT MTW. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NE MBS SBN JEF 30 ESE OJC P35 DSM OTG AXN 35 NNW ELO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E GPT JAN MEM HRO MKO PNC TOP 55 WNW DSM FSD PHP RIW MLD 4LW 65 NNE MFR PDX SEA 20 NW BLI ...CONT... 10 ENE ROC PIT CRW GSO RWI 25 NE ECG. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MN...NORTHEAST IA...AND MUCH OF WI... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION... ETA/GFS SOLUTIONS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY THURSDAY MORNING...AND EJECT NEGATIVELY-TILTED ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN NUMEROUS STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY ON DAY2. ...NORTHERN IA/EASTERN MN/WI/MI... MAIN SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO BE OVER NERN ND/NWRN MN BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH COLD FRONT SURGING EASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN MN/CENTRAL IA. A DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SOUTHWARD FROM THE FRONTAL BULGE INTO EASTERN KS. QUALITY OF AIRMASS EAST OF THESE FEATURES WILL BE STRONGLY DEPENDENT ON TIMING AND COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY1 PERIOD. HOWEVER...CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 4000 J/KG. INCREASING UVVS AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN IA/EASTERN MN BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THIS REGION SHOW VERY FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES /6KM SHEAR OF 50-60 KNOTS AND 1KM HELICITY OVER 250 M2/S2/ FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY IN THE MODERATE RISK AREA. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING AND SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF WI AND EVENTUALLY INTO UPPER/LOWER MI. ...SOUTHERN IA/NORTHERN MO... A VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AHEAD OF DRYLINE OVER THIS REGION...WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING MLCAPE VALUES OF 3000-4000 J/KG AND A PRONOUNCED CAPPING INVERSION. WEAKER UPPER DYNAMICS IN THIS REGION WOULD SUGGEST THAT THREAT OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS SMALL. HOWEVER...OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM DAY1 CONVECTION MAY INTERACT WITH DRYLINE AND RESULT IN ISOLATED CELLS. ANY STORMS THAT FORM IN THIS AREA WOULD HAVE A RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ..HART.. 08/25/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 27 07:31:57 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 27 Aug 2004 02:31:57 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200408270732.i7R7WvL19683@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 270730 SWODY2 SPC AC 270728 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0228 AM CDT FRI AUG 27 2004 VALID 281200Z - 291200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW ROC 25 SW BFD 20 NNE PKB 20 WNW LEX 30 WSW EVV 40 SSE SPI 35 ESE CGX 70 N MTC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNE HYA 15 S POU 30 W CXY 15 ENE BKW 35 ENE AVL 50 SSE CLT 25 ENE ILM ...CONT... 50 W RRT 10 NE MBG 30 SW RAP 30 WNW SNY 30 NNW EHA 50 W CSM 55 SW TUL 20 WSW TBN 20 NE IRK 35 S OSH 10 NNE APN ...CONT... 25 SW DMN 45 SSE FMN 55 WNW COS 15 SW RWL 30 WNW PIH 45 N BKE 35 NNW 4OM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE OH VLY/LWR GRT LKS... ...SYNOPSIS... BROAD...LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE N CNTRL U.S. THIS PERIOD AS IMPULSE NOW OVER THE GRT BASIN MOVES ACROSS THE CNTRL PLNS/MID MS VLY...AND NRN STREAM DISTURBANCE NOW OVER WRN ONTARIO CONTINUES RAPIDLY ENE ACROSS QUEBEC INTO SRN NEWFOUNDLAND. HEIGHTS SHOULD RISE OVER THE SWRN STATES...AND OVER THE WRN N ATLANTIC. COLD FRONT NOW EXTENDING FROM THE UPR GRT LKS TO THE SRN HI PLNS SHOULD REACH A SRN ONTARIO/CNTRL IL/SE OK AXIS BY 12Z SATURDAY. APPROACH OF CNTRL PLNS IMPULSE EXPECTED TO INDUCE WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG FRONT OVER THE IL/IND AREA...WHILE ERN PART OF BOUNDARY DROPS SWD INTO NRN NEW ENG IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING CYCLONE IN QUEBEC. ...OH VLY/LWR GRT LKS... POCKET OF MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY /MLCAPE TO 2000 J PER KG/ SHOULD DEVELOP WITH DAYTIME HEATING INVOF DEVELOPING FRONTAL WAVE IN IND/IL/OH AND SRN MI. COUPLED WITH MODEST /25-30 KT/ DEEP SWLY SHEAR...EXPECT A FEW STRONG DIURNALLY ENHANCED STORMS /MAINLY MULTICELLS/ WITH HIGH WIND. LATER IN THE PERIOD...THIS ACTIVITY MAY CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE OR TWO SMALL MCSS WHICH SHOULD MOVE/DEVELOP E/NE INTO NW PA/WRN NY. BUT UNFAVORABLE TIME OF DAY AND WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT ANY ASSOCIATED SEVERE THREAT. ...NRN NEW ENG... MODERATE /40 KT/ DEEP WLY SHEAR WILL OVERSPREAD NRN NEW ENG ON SATURDAY ALONG SRN FRINGE OF STRONG UPPER IMPULSE CROSSING QUEBEC. BUT MEAN WLY FLOW WILL KEEP CONVERGENCE WEAK ALONG ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DROPPING S INTO NRN PORTIONS OF ME/NH/VT. COUPLED WITH WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE 700-600 MB LAYER DUE TO RIDGING OFF THE ERN SEABOARD...POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED STORMS AND SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED. ..CORFIDI.. 08/27/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 27 17:44:58 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 27 Aug 2004 12:44:58 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200408271745.i7RHjuL11717@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 271744 SWODY2 SPC AC 271741 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1241 PM CDT FRI AUG 27 2004 VALID 281200Z - 291200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW ROC 25 SW BFD 20 NNE PKB 20 WNW LEX 30 WSW EVV 40 SSE SPI 35 ESE CGX 70 N MTC. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 SSW GDP 40 NW GDP 25 N HOB 25 NW BGS 30 WNW SJT 70 SW SJT 25 SE P07. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW DMN 45 SSE FMN 55 WNW COS 15 SW RWL 30 WNW PIH 45 N BKE 35 NNW 4OM ...CONT... 50 W RRT 10 NE MBG 30 SW RAP 30 WNW SNY 25 WNW EHA 30 NNE PVW 30 W LTS 25 SE END 55 SW SZL 20 NE IRK 35 S OSH 10 NNE APN ...CONT... 35 NNE HYA 15 S POU CXY 40 WSW SHD 35 S PSK 40 ENE CLT 10 NNW HSE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER OH VALLEY/MIDWEST AREA TO LOWER GREAT LAKES... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWEST TX... ...SYNOPSIS... HEIGHT FALLS...ALTHOUGH WEAK...ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO THE OH VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGION AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES EWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY/WRN GREAT LAKES AND MID MS VALLEY TO SRN PLAINS. THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE UPPER TROUGH/FLOW PATTERN APPEARS LIKELY...AS UPSTREAM TROUGH /CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE BC COAST/ PHASES WITH TROUGH OVER NRN CANADA AND AMPLIFIES ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA AND THE NRN PLAINS ON DAY 2. COLD FRONT PROGGED TO INITIALLY EXTEND FROM ERN QUEBEC/LOWER GREAT LAKES SWWD ACROSS SRN LOWER MI TO NRN IL TO CENTRAL OK AND WEST CENTRAL TX WILL ADVANCE EAST AND SOUTH. THE CENTRAL/SRN PARTS OF THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD REACH FAR NWRN OH TO CENTRAL AR AND CENTRAL TX BY 00Z. A SURFACE WAVE LOCATED OVER NRN IL AT 12Z SATURDAY WILL MOVE ENEWD ALONG THE FRONT TO FAR NWRN OH BY 00Z...BEFORE MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT. ...OH VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES... LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER ERN CO AND AHEAD OF MAIN UPPER TROUGH...WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE MIDWEST TO MID MS VALLEY/OZARKS. LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH THIS FEATURE AND WITHIN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF 130-140 KT SWLY UPPER LEVEL JET WHICH WILL EXTEND FROM UPPER GREAT LAKES TO ERN CANADA IS EXPECTED TO AID IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ON DAY 2 ALONG THE COLD FRONT. SWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL MAINTAIN A VERY MOIST AIR MASS /SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S/ ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORM OF AT LEAST TWO MCS/S ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ACROSS THE SRN GREAT LAKES/LOWER OH VALLEY AND THE SRN PLAINS. MODELS SUGGEST... ESPECIALLY THE 27/09Z ETAKF...THAT ENOUGH CLEARING IN THE WAKE OF LOWER OH VALLEY MORNING CONVECTION SHOULD OCCUR AND ALLOW FOR SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION...GIVEN MODEST LAPSE RATES /AROUND 6.5 C/KM/. INCREASING DEEP LAYER ASCENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED UPPER FEATURES AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES EWD INTO THE MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS SHOULD RESULT IN NEW STORMS FROM SERN MO TO NWRN IND/SRN LOWER MI. DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES SUPPORT MULTICELLS AND ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WITH ACTIVITY MOST LIKELY IN THE FORM OF A BROKEN LINE ALONG THE FRONT. AS THE LEAD SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT MOVE EWD ACROSS THE MIDWEST/ OH VALLEY...THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE ACTIVITY WEAKENS WITH THE LOSS OF DAY TIME HEATING STABILIZING THE ENVIRONMENT. ...SW TX... COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SWD ACROSS SWRN TX...WITH ENELY LOW-LEVEL WINDS IN ITS WAKE ADVECTING LOWER-MIDDLE 60S SURFACE DEWPOINTS INTO THIS REGION. STEEP LAPSE RATES ATOP THIS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE 1500-2500 J/KG/ FROM SERN NM INTO SWRN TX. DESPITE MODEST NWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW /20-25 KT/...ENELY LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL ENHANCE DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR MULTICELLS AND A FEW SUPERCELLS AS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT. HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. ...NRN NEW ENGLAND... MODERATE /40 KT/ DEEP WLY SHEAR WILL OVERSPREAD NRN NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY ALONG SRN FRINGE OF STRONG UPPER IMPULSE CROSSING QUEBEC. HOWEVER...MEAN WLY FLOW WILL KEEP CONVERGENCE WEAK ALONG ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DROPPING S INTO NRN PORTIONS OF ME/NH/VT. COUPLED WITH WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE 700-600 MB LAYER DUE TO RIDGING OFF THE ERN SEABOARD...POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED STORMS AND SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED. ..PETERS.. 08/27/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 29 07:21:26 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 29 Aug 2004 02:21:26 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200408290723.i7T7N3L13088@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 290720 SWODY2 SPC AC 290717 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0217 AM CDT SUN AUG 29 2004 VALID 301200Z - 311200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSW TUS 40 NW SAD 40 SSW GNT 50 NE 4SL 35 ENE ASE 55 N CYS 50 NNW CPR 40 ESE WEY 55 WNW BOI 80 ENE RDM 20 NW PUW 20 NNE EAT 60 ENE BLI ...CONT... 20 NE INL 40 WSW DLH 15 ENE MKT 35 W FOD 35 ESE GRI 15 ESE RSL 20 S END 20 SSW SPS 50 E SJT 40 N DRT 30 WSW COT 35 ENE CRP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MIA 40 ENE FMY 35 WNW ORL 25 S CTY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 ESE ANJ 25 SW APN 35 NE MKG 20 WSW MTW 40 SSW IMT 35 SW CMX 90 ENE ELO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW MOB 40 SW TOI 45 N ABY 35 WNW AHN 45 NNE CSV 45 ESE LUK 20 SSW CAK 20 N JHW. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE GRT BASIN/NRN RCKYS ON MONDAY IN WAKE OF STRONG SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW OVER SRN SASKATCHEWAN. THE LATTER SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT MOVES FROM WRN ONTARIO/NE MN INTO SRN QUEBEC DURING THE PERIOD. FARTHER E...EXPECT RIDGE TO PERSIST OVER THE NW ATLANTIC AS T.S. GASTON SLOWLY INCREASES FORWARD SPEED AND MOVES NE ACROSS THE LWR CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION /SEE TPC FCSTS FOR DETAILS/. TRAILING FRONTAL ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH DISTURBANCE NOW OVER SASKATCHEWAN WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NEWD AS A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE NRN PLNS/UPR MS VLY DURING THE PERIOD. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THAT FEATURE...SURFACE BOUNDARIES WILL REMAIN WEAK. ...SRN/CNTRL HI PLNS... STRONG INSTABILITY /MLCAPE TO 2000 J PER KG/ WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF CO/NM AND THE ADJACENT HI PLNS ON MONDAY AS SURFACE HEATING DESTABILIZES AXIS OF RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKENING FRONT NOW OVER THE SRN PLNS. COMBINATION OF STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND VERY WEAK SHEAR WILL FAVOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING PULSE STORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY BRIEFLY POSE A THREAT FOR DOWNBURSTS/SEVERE HAIL. ...NRN PLNS/UPR MS VLY... AMPLIFICATION OF WRN RIDGE AND DIURNAL PROCESSES EXPECTED TO RESULT IN STRENGTHENING OF LOW LEVEL JET/WARM ADVECTION OVER THE ERN DAKS AND MN MONDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS AS WNWLY MID LEVEL FLOW MAINTAINS AXIS OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER REGION. SPARSE MOISTURE SHOULD LIMIT MAGNITUDE OF ELEVATED CAPE...AND THE LIKELIHOOD FOR SEVERE HAIL. ...NRN WI/NRN MI... WITH SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW OVER SASKATCHEWAN EXPECTED TO LIFT ENE ACROSS SRN ONTARIO THIS PERIOD...POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL OVER NRN PORTIONS OF WI/MI ON MONDAY. NEVERTHELESS ...DAYTIME HEATING BENEATH LINGERING PATTERN OF SEASONABLY COOL AND CYCLONIC 500 MB FLOW MAY YIELD A FEW CELLS WITH SMALL HAIL. ..CORFIDI.. 08/29/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 30 17:21:42 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 30 Aug 2004 12:21:42 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200408301723.i7UHMxL26687@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 301720 SWODY2 SPC AC 301717 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1217 PM CDT MON AUG 30 2004 VALID 311200Z - 011200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NW CTB 15 SW MSO 55 ENE BKE 60 NNE LMT 40 N MFR 25 N SLE 30 E CLM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW 7R4 15 SSE HEZ 35 WSW TCL 25 SE HSV 20 SSW HSS 35 SE ECG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SW TUS 45 SW SOW 70 WSW FMN 30 N MTJ 20 WSW LAR 50 NNW BFF 15 SE PHP 50 WSW ABR 10 ESE JMS 60 N DVL ...CONT... 35 NNW APN 35 NNE MKG 40 ESE JVL 35 ESE OTM 30 SE TOP 40 SSW ICT 45 NNW CDS 15 S BGS 40 NNE DRT 15 E CRP. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...CENTRAL PLAINS TO UPPER MS VALLEY... LARGE SCALE HEIGHT RISES WILL DOMINATE THE CENTRAL U.S. TUESDAY AS UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE PLAINS. THIS WILL ENSURE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT WILL RESIDE ACROSS SRN CANADA INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. IN THE ABSENCE OF SIGNIFICANT LARGE SCALE ASCENT...IT APPEARS BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING WILL BE INSTRUMENTAL IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION...AND THIS SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED ALONG THE MIDDLE MO VALLEY ALONG WEAK WIND SHIFT. DOWNSTREAM ACROSS MN...VEERED BUT WEAK LLJ MAY ENHANCE THE THREAT OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. WEAK SHEAR AND MARGINAL LARGE SCALE FOCUS/ASCENT SUGGEST THE THREAT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MINIMAL. HOWEVER...A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS. ..DARROW.. 08/30/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 31 17:28:47 2004 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (SWODY2 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 31 Aug 2004 12:28:47 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200408311730.i7VHUHL15448@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 311728 SWODY2 SPC AC 311725 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1225 PM CDT TUE AUG 31 2004 VALID 011200Z - 021200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S BPT 15 W POE 40 E ELD 30 E MEM 30 SSW BWG 10 ESE 5I3 15 NE ECG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SSE OSC 20 ENE GRR 35 NNW CGX 30 NE MLI 20 NNE OTM 40 WNW DSM 25 NE FOD 35 WSW LSE 25 N AUW 15 NE CMX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 N OLF 45 NW COD 15 WSW MLD 50 ENE U31 55 SE TVL 25 NNE SAC 40 ENE ACV 50 ESE OTH 45 ESE SLE 35 ESE EPH 30 NNW 63S. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 S GBN 50 E PHX 25 WNW GUP 40 NNE DRO 25 S 4FC 45 WSW AKO 55 E LIC 45 SSE LAA 50 NNE HOB 40 SSE MAF 25 SW JCT 25 S SAT 25 ENE CRP. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...NWRN U.S... STRONG HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE NWRN U.S. DURING THE DAY2 PERIOD AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE INTO THE NRN INTER-MOUNTAIN REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL PROVE RESPONSIBLE IN FORCING A SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT INLAND...WITH ENHANCED FRONTAL CIRCULATIONS EXPECTED TO AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AHEAD OF THIS WIND SHIFT INDICATE VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR...MORE THAN ADEQUATE TO WARRANT AT LEAST LOW PROBABILITIES FOR DAMAGING WINDS OR PERHAPS HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS. IF STRONGER INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP ACROSS THIS REGION...A SLIGHT RISK MAY BE REQUIRED IN LATER OUTLOOKS. ...UPPER GREAT LAKES TO IA... WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DE-AMPLIFY AND SHIFT SEWD TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY. WEAK SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE WILL LIMIT THE CONVECTIVE THREAT ALONG SFC WIND SHIFT ACROSS WI INTO IA. HOWEVER...SLOWLY MOISTENING PROFILES ACROSS THE ERN PLAINS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY AND THE EXPECTED STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING MAY PROVE SUFFICIENT IN GENERATING AN ISOLATED LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORM. WEAK SHEAR BUT ADEQUATE INSTABILITY COULD SUPPORT GUSTY WINDS OR SOME HAIL. ..DARROW.. 08/31/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.