[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 281301
SWODY1
SPC AC 281258

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0658 AM CST SUN JAN 28 2007

VALID 281300Z - 291200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
BROAD MEAN TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER ERN NOAM THIS PERIOD...DOWNSTREAM
FROM REX BLOCK OVER THE NE PACIFIC.  POTENT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE NOW
NEARING CHICAGO SHOULD CONTINUE SE INTO THE SRN APLCNS TONIGHT...
BEFORE TURNING MORE E OFF THE MID ATLANTIC CST TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY.
 AS THIS OCCURS...WEAKER SRN BRANCH IMPULSE NOW OVER SC WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ABSORBED IN FAST CONFLUENT FLOW DOWNSTREAM FROM
MIDWEST DISTURBANCE.

AT LOWER LEVELS...MAIN SFC WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH SC TROUGH IS NOW
FORMING E OF CHARLESTON.  THIS WAVE SHOULD ACCELERATE NEWD THROUGH
THE DAY AS TRAILING COLD FRONT PROGRESSES E/SE ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN
FL PENINSULA.

...S FL THROUGH MIDDAY...
SHALLOW COLD FRONT...AND PREFRONTAL CONFLUENCE AXIS OVER THE KEYS...
WILL BE FOCI FOR MODEST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TODAY AS BOUNDARY
LAYER WARMS AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES.  DEPTH/STRENGTH OF CONVERGENCE
WILL BE LIMITED AS SFC WAVE OFF THE SC CST LIFTS NE AWAY FROM
REGION.  COUPLED WITH RELATIVELY WEAK LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...ANY THUNDER SHOULD REMAIN WIDELY SCTD TO ISOLATED.

...MID ATLANTIC CSTL WATERS THIS EVENING...  
SCTD TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP RAPIDLY LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY OFF THE DELMARVA CST AS ZONE OF STRONG ASCENT/MID LEVEL
COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH IMPULSE NOW NEAR CHICAGO OVERSPREADS REGION.
 THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE GULF STREAM GIVEN DRY OVERLAND
AIR MASS AND WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE.

...CNTRL CA...
ISOLATED LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE CNTRL CA COAST E TOWARD
THE SIERRA IN ASSOCIATION WITH MID LEVEL LOW ENTRENCHED IN REX BLOCK
OVER THE ERN PACIFIC.  TSTM POTENTIAL APPEARS TOO LIMITED TO WARRANT
A CATEGORICAL THUNDER FCST IN THIS AREA.

..CORFIDI.. 01/28/2007