[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 221319
SWODY1
SPC AC 221316

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0716 AM CST MON JAN 22 2007

VALID 221300Z - 231200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

LARGE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE UNITED STATES TODAY...WITH A
GENERALLY COLD/DRY AIR MASS PRECLUDING THUNDERSTORMS IN MOST AREAS. 
ONLY PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN GA AND THE FL PENINSULA...AS WELL AS PARTS
OF SOUTHERN NM/FAR WEST TX WILL HAVE A THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY.

...GA/FL...
MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT THROUGHOUT
THE DAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN GA AND THE FL PENINSULA...WHERE
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FORECAST.  MODEL SOUNDINGS IN THIS REGION SHOW
NEAR MOIST-ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES AND CAPE VALUES BELOW 1000 J/KG.  A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN THIS PRE-FRONTAL ZONE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  HOWEVER...WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT...
RELATIVELY WEAK CAPE VALUES...AND POOR LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT
UPDRAFT STRENGTH AND SEVERE POTENTIAL.

...NM/TX...
COLD UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN AZ AND NORTHERN MEXICO THIS MORNING
WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  RELATIVELY STEEP
LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN MARGINAL AFTERNOON INSTABILITY OVER PARTS
OF SOUTHERN NM AND FAR WEST TX.  SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY OVER AZ...AN
ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN STRONGER
LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS.  HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A RELATIVELY
COLD AND DRY THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE THAT IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR
ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

..HART.. 01/22/2007