[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 200042
SWODY1
SPC AC 200039

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0639 PM CST FRI JAN 19 2007

VALID 200100Z - 201200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...AZ...

EARLY EVENING MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CENTER OF UPPER CIRCULATION IS
LOCATED OVER THE NRN BAJA PENINSULA/NRN GULF OF CALIFORNIA...ABOUT
200 S OF YUM.  THIS FEATURE WILL SOON EJECT ENEWD ACROSS NRN MEXICO
TO NEAR THE AZ/NM/MEXICO BORDER BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  ROUGHLY 4
BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION HAVE DEVELOPED WITHIN THE NERN QUAD OF THIS
LARGE SCALE CIRCULATION INTO CNTRL PORTIONS OF AZ...WITH ISOLATED
LIGHTNING NOW LIMITED TO THE TWO BANDS ACROSS NWRN MEXICO.  EVEN
SO...THIS ACTIVITY IS DECREASING IN INTENSITY AND NOW MOSTLY NEAR
THE LOW CENTER.  00Z SOUNDING FROM TUS SUGGESTS THUNDER POTENTIAL
WILL BE RELATIVELY LOW THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS INSTABILITY IS VERY
WEAK AND BOUNDARY LAYER WILL SOON BEGIN TO COOL.

..DARROW.. 01/20/2007