[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 192001
SWODY1
SPC AC 191958

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0158 PM CST FRI JAN 19 2007

VALID 192000Z - 201200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...AZ...

MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY DRIFTING SSEWD OVER NRN BAJA IS
FORECAST TO ACCELERATE IN MORE OF AN ELY DIRECTION TONIGHT IN
RESPONSE TO INCREASING HEIGHT FALLS FROM THE PACIFIC NW INTO GREAT
BASIN.  CYCLONICALLY CURVED PRECIPITATION BAND IS ONGOING AS OF
1930Z FROM THE SERN PART OF THE STATE WNWWD THROUGH THE PHX METRO TO
BLH WITHIN ZONE OF DEEP LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD AND N OF
UPPER LOW.  HOWEVER...PRIMARY REGION OF DEEP...MOIST CONVECTION
REMAINS CONFINED TO NEAR THE CENTER OF AND ALONG THE SWRN/SRN
PERIPHERY OF CIRCULATION FROM JUST OFF THE BAJA COAST TO THE NRN
GULF OF CA.

PROXIMITY RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN
QUITE WEAK /AOB 6.5 C PER KM/ OVER SERN INTO CNTRL AZ.  WITH
APPROACH OF UPPER LOW...EXPECT THAT THESE LAPSE RATES WILL
STEEPEN...SUPPORTING POCKETS OF WEAK CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY AND AN
ISOLATED THUNDER THREAT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

..MEAD.. 01/19/2007