[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 141548
SWODY1
SPC AC 141545

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0945 AM CST SUN JAN 14 2007

VALID 141630Z - 151200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

STRONG IMPULSE IN PROCESS OF LIFTING NEWD OUT OF WRN U.S. TROUGH
POSITION AND WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE MID MS
VALLEY THIS FORECAST PERIOD.  WHILE THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SHALLOW
ARCTIC AIR MASS HAS REACHED ALMOST TO UPR TX COAST WWD ACROSS FAR S
TX...THERE REMAINS A STRONG SLY FLOW OF VERY MOIST AIR JUST ABOVE
THE COLD DOME NWD INTO ERN OK/AR.

MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT A SURFACE LOW WILL FINALLY
DEVELOP TONIGHT TO E OF THE SHALLOW COLD DOME OVER MID MS VALLEY
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER SUPPORT NOW MOVING INTO SRN/CENTRAL
PLAINS.

ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RAPIDLY DEVELOPED THIS AM WRN OK INTO
NWRN TX WITH THE MID LEVEL COOLING AND STRONG LARGE SCALE ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACH OF THE S/WV TROUGH.  WHILE THERE IS AN
UNSEASONABLY MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS LWR MS INTO LOWER OH
VALLEY...IT IS CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK LAPSE RATES AND LIMITED
POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE HEATING WITH THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER.

POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS VERY LIMITED BOTH ELEVATED AND
SURFACE BASED GIVEN THE WEAK LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY.  HOWEVER
PRIMARILY ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXPAND EWD ACROSS SRN PLAINS
INTO MS VALLEY THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD.

..HALES.. 01/14/2007