[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 130036
SWODY1
SPC AC 130034

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0634 PM CST FRI JAN 12 2007

VALID 130100Z - 131200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MAINTAINED OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL
CONUS...DOWNSTREAM FROM STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE NOW EVIDENT
IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER SRN NV.  THIS LOW IS FCST TO MOVE
SLOWLY EWD OVER SWRN UT THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD...WITH ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW OVER CENTRAL/SWRN CO.  STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS ARKLATEX REGION...AND CENTRAL/SW TX. 
FRONT WILL MOVE MORE SLOWLY OVER CENTRAL/SERN NM...AND EXTEND NWWD
INTO SFC LOW.

...TX...
FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...COMBINED WITH WEAK
SFC-BASED BUOYANCY AND MINIMAL CINH...AIDED IN DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG
SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS S OF COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL TX.  ONE OF
THESE SPAWNED SMALL TORNADO NEAR I-35 IN BELL COUNTY...AT 2244Z. 
MODIFIED VWP AND RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE 200-250 0-1 KM SRH...BENEATH
40-50 KT 500 MB FLOW THAT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO 40-45 KT 0-6 KM SHEAR. 
ALTHOUGH BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR CONVECTION IN WARM
SECTOR...ALREADY MRGL THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS WILL BECOME LESS
FAVORABLE FROM NW-SE.  IN ADDITION TO GRADUAL DIABATIC COOLING IN
WARM SECTOR...STRONG DENSITY CURRENT BEHIND COLD FRONT IS FCST TO
UNDERCUT ACTIVITY MOVING NNEWD ACROSS CENTRAL TX...AMIDST
EFFECTIVELY ANAFRONTAL FLOW REGIME.

..EDWARDS.. 01/13/2007