[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 121942
SWODY1
SPC AC 121940

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0140 PM CST FRI JAN 12 2007

VALID 122000Z - 131200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS THE WRN U.S. THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD...WITH ASSOCIATED CLOSED LOW CROSSING THE
GREAT BASIN.  LOW-LEVEL SLY FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF THIS FEATURE RIDING
ATOP SHALLOW/SWD-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE S
CENTRAL U.S. THROUGH 13/12Z.

...FAR SERN NM ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NRN TX...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE SRN PLAINS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...AS COLD FRONT
CONTINUES MOVING SWD AND SWLY FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS AHEAD OF WRN
TROUGH.  THOUGH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S HAVE ADVECTED NWD INTO CENTRAL
AND NERN TX AHEAD OF FRONT...WEAK LAPSE RATES AND WARM NOSE IN THE
850 TO 700 MB LAYER ARE RESULTING IN MINIMALLY-UNSTABLE/CAPPED
AIRMASS.  

THOUGH SHEAR WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS...LACK OF
INSTABILITY AND GENERALLY UNFAVORABLE THERMODYNAMICS PRECLUDE
APPRECIABLE SEVERE THREAT -- PARTICULARLY GIVEN NNELY MEAN WIND AND
ASSOCIATED TENDENCY FOR ANY SURFACE-BASED STORMS WHICH COULD DEVELOP
NEAR FRONT TO MOVE NWD ACROSS THE BOUNDARY AND BECOME ELEVATED.  A
LIMITED THREAT FOR MARGINALLY-SEVERE HAIL MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT
ACROSS FAR SERN NM AND INTO FAR W TX AND THE TRANSPECOS REGION AS
STEEPER LAPSE RATES APPROACH FROM THE W.  ELSEWHERE...WILL MAINTAIN
VERY LOW PROBABILITY THREAT FOR A WEAK/BRIEF TORNADO OR LOCAL WIND
GUST NEAR THE FRONT FROM THE HILL COUNTRY REGION NEWD INTO NERN TX
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

..GOSS.. 01/12/2007