[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 070547
SWODY1
SPC AC 070545

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1145 PM CST SAT JAN 06 2007

VALID 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NC...SC AND SE
VA...

...CAROLINAS AND SERN VIRGINIA...
A SYNOPTIC-SCALE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE CNTRL
UNITED STATES TODAY AND MOVE EWD INTO THE MS VALLEY. IN RESPONSE...A
SFC LOW IS FORECAST TO ORGANIZE OVER THE SERN U.S. AND MOVE NEWD
INTO THE SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS THIS AFTERNOON. A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET
WILL INCREASE IN STRENGTH AND SIZE AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS BROUGHT
NWD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. THE INCREASING MOISTURE AND STRONG
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CAROLINAS BY AFTERNOON. THE STORMS
SHOULD MOVE QUICKLY NEWD ACROSS NC BY EVENING.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON SHOW IMPRESSIVE
SHEAR PROFILES WITH BACKED SELY SFC WINDS AND 50 KT OF FLOW AT 850
MB. THE LARGE HODOGRAPHS COMBINED WITH STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD
BE SUFFICIENT FOR LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A 
TORNADO OR TWO. THE TORNADO THREAT SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED DUE TO
WEAK INSTABILITY AS STORMS DEVELOP NEWD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.  ALSO...AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE
THREAT MAY OCCUR WITH THE BETTER ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS. THE SEVERE
THREAT SHOULD EXPAND NEWD DURING THE EVENING POSSIBLY AFFECTING
AREAS AS FAR NORTH AS SE VA.

..BROYLES.. 01/07/2007