[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 061956
SWODY1
SPC AC 061954

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0154 PM CST SAT JAN 06 2007

VALID 062000Z - 071200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...CNTRL/NRN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH EARLY EVENING...
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT CARRYING SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER HAS BEEN IMPETUS FOR FAST MOVING LOW-TOPPED
CONVECTION ACROSS CNTRL/NRN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTN.  STRONGEST
CELLS...INCLUDING SPORADIC LIGHTNING...WERE FOCUSED ALONG A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL MOVE EWD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEW ENGLAND THIS
EVENING.  THE MOST UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN OVER PARTS OF
CNTRL/SRN NH...SRN VT AND NRN MA WHERE A SEASONABLY MOIST/WARM
BOUNDARY LAYER EXISTS.  HERE...GUSTY WINDS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE
STRONGER TSTMS GIVEN THE 50-55 KT WLY WINDS NOTED IN THE LOWEST 1KM
/BURLINGTON /CCX/ VWP/.  FARTHER E...THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS NOT
RECOVERED AS MUCH AND CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE ELEVATED
WITH TIME...THOUGH STILL CAPABLE OF ISOLD LIGHTNING.

...GULF COASTAL REGION TONIGHT...
WEAK WARM ADVECTION ALONG/N OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG THE GULF
COAST CONTINUES TO SUPPORT SHALLOW CONVECTION.  SATL SHOWS EVIDENCE
OF A SUB-SYNOPTIC CYCLONIC CIRCULATION MOVING OVER SRN TX WITH
GENERAL NLY FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER OVER SE TX.  AS THE UPSTREAM
TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG SEWD THROUGH THE CNTRL ROCKIES THIS EVE AND
ONTO THE CNTRL PLAINS TONIGHT...THIS CIRCULATION MAY INTENSIFY AND
DEVELOP NEWD TOWARD SRN LA.  TO THE E OF THIS FEATURE...THE LLJ WILL
BEGIN TO ACCELERATE...ENHANCING LOW- AND MID-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION
ACROSS THE LWR MS VLY INTO THE ERN GULF COASTAL AREA.  AS A
RESULT...CONVECTION/TSTMS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVERNIGHT. 

THOUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL MOISTEN QUICKLY TONIGHT ALONG THE
GULF COAST AND THERE WILL BE 40-50 KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR...THE
THERMAL BUOYANCY SHOULD REMAIN WEAK GIVEN THE WARM TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID-LAYERS OF THE TROPOSPHERE.  THE RESULT WILL BE WEAK UPDRAFTS
AND LIMITED SEVERE POTENTIAL.

..RACY.. 01/06/2007