[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 050537
SWODY1
SPC AC 050535

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1135 PM CST THU JAN 04 2007

VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE SERN
STATES...NRN FL INTO THE ERN CAROLINAS...

...SERN U.S. THROUGH ERN CAROLINAS...

SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING INTO THE MS VALLEY WILL EJECT NE THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE SERN STATES FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SLOWLY DEAMPLIFY. A 40 TO 50 KT SLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL SHIFT EWD
THROUGH THE SERN U.S. IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE DURING THE DAY AND
LIFT NWD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND NERN STATES FRIDAY NIGHT. POORLY
DEFINED WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM SRN SC WWD THROUGH S CNTRL MS AND
NERN LA WHERE IT INTERSECTS A COLD FRONT THAT STRETCHES SWD INTO THE
GULF. LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50 UPPER 60S WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVECT NWD THROUGH PARTS OF AL...GA AND THE ERN CAROLINAS FRIDAY AS
THE LOW LEVEL JET SHIFTS EWD. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST
MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE GENERALLY FROM 400 TO 800 J/KG
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. STRONGER INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP OVER PARTS
OF SRN GA INTO NRN FL WHERE STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ACCOMPANYING THE UPPER TROUGH MAY OVERTAKE THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER.


BAND OF PRE-FRONTAL STORMS WILL LIKELY PERSIST AND SPREAD EAST
THROUGH THE SERN U.S. WITHIN ZONE OF UPPER DIVERGENCE AND DEEP LAYER
ASCENT ACCOMPANYING THE EJECTING UPPER TROUGH. LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS
AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS
WITH SUPERCELLS AND LEWP STRUCTURES. PRIMARY THREATS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE ISOLATED TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WIND WITH ANY SURFACE BASED
STORMS.

..DIAL.. 01/05/2007