[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 040537
SWODY1
SPC AC 040535

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1135 PM CST WED JAN 03 2007

VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM EXTREME SERN TX THROUGH
THE CNTRL GULF COASTAL AREA...

...NWRN THROUGH CNTRL GULF COASTAL AREA...

UPPER LOW OVER NRN MEXICO WILL EJECT NEWD THROUGH CNTRL AND ERN TX
TODAY REACHING THE LOWER MS VALLEY TONIGHT AS A POSITIVELY TILTED
UPPER TROUGH MOVES ONTO THE W COAST. A 50 TO 60 KT LOW LEVEL JET
WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EWD THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY WITHIN ZONE OF
HEIGHT FALLS AND ASCENT DOWNSTREAM FROM THE UPPER LOW. THE STRONG
SLY LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO NWD ADVANCE OF WARM FRONT
OVER THE NWRN GULF. BY LATE MORNING OR MID DAY THIS FRONT SHOULD
EXTEND EWD ALONG THE LA COAST FROM A SURFACE LOW IN SWRN LA WITH A
COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWD FROM THE LOW THROUGH THE WRN GULF. 

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE WITHIN BELT OF ASCENT E OF UPPER LOW AND
SHIFT THROUGH ERN TX AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY. MUCH OF THE CONVECTION
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED. HOWEVER...AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE
COAST...NWD ADVECTION OF UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO
BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION. MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
LIMITED SURFACE HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITH
MUCAPE AOB 500 J/KG. AS DEWPOINTS INCREASE AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER
DESTABILIZES...STORMS MAY BECOME CLOSE ENOUGH TO SURFACE BASED TO
POSE A SEVERE THREAT FROM EXTREME SERN TX INTO SRN LA...AND THE
BOOTHEEL OF MS. LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND CLOUD LAYER SHEAR WILL
SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WITH ANY
SURFACE BASED ACTIVITY. PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE ISOLATED DAMAGING
WIND AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO.

..DIAL.. 01/04/2007