[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 040052
SWODY1
SPC AC 040050

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0650 PM CST WED JAN 03 2007

VALID 040100Z - 041200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...S AND SERN TX COASTAL AREA...

A SURFACE FRONT EXTENDS FROM A WEAK LOW JUST OFF THE S TX COAST EWD
THROUGH THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO. AN UPPER LOW OVER NRN MEXICO WILL
ADVANCE SLOWLY EAST TONIGHT REACHING SWRN TX BY THE END OF THIS
PERIOD. SLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL INTENSIFY OVER CNTRL AND ERN TX
WITHIN ZONE OF UPPER DIVERGENCE AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT DOWNSTREAM
FROM THE UPPER LOW. THIS WILL MAINTAIN ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STORMS TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT.
THE BOUNDARY LAYER N OF SURFACE FRONT IS STABLE...SO STORMS WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED MUCH OF THE REST OF THIS PERIOD. AS THE LOW LEVEL
JET INTENSIFIES...WRN PORTION OF THE BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NWD
THROUGH THE NWRN GULF...POSSIBLY REACHING THE SERN TX COAST TOWARD
THE END OF THIS PERIOD. AS THIS OCCURS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
DESTABILIZE AND STORMS MAY BECOME CLOSE ENOUGH TO SURFACE BASED TO
POSE A SEVERE THREAT. LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES WILL
REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS WITH ANY
SURFACE BASED STORMS. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR
DAMAGING WIND GUST CONDITIONAL UPON SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER
DESTABILIZATION. GIVEN THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE
UNTIL NEAR THE END OF THIS PERIOD...THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR
SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT MORE THAN 5% PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.

..DIAL.. 01/04/2007