[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 290508
SWODY1
SPC AC 290506

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1106 PM CST SUN JAN 28 2007

VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST...

AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ONE
PERIOD...CHARACTERIZED BY REX BLOCK OVER THE FAR ERN PACIFIC AND
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW GENERALLY E OF THE ROCKIES.  LOW LATITUDE SHORT
WAVE TROUGH /CURRENTLY NEAR 116W AND 21N/ IS FORECAST TO TRANSLATE
ACROSS MEXICO INTO THE NWRN GULF OF MEXICO BY TUESDAY MORNING.  IN
THE LOW-LEVELS...SURFACE ANTICYCLONE INITIALLY OVER THE CNTRL GULF
COAST WILL WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS EWD.  WEAK CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED
TO OCCUR OVER THE NWRN GULF COAST TONIGHT WITH APPROACH OF
ABOVEMENTIONED SHORT WAVE TROUGH.

INTENSIFYING SLY LLJ IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL SUPPORT AN
INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE WRN GULF BASIN WITH
CONVECTION BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY TONIGHT ALONG THE TX COAST
INTO THE LOWER SABINE RIVER VALLEY.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
THAT CORRESPONDING THERMAL PROFILES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WARM WITH
CONVECTION LIKELY TOO SHALLOW TO SUPPORT LIGHTNING.  A GREATER
THREAT OF EMBEDDED TSTMS WILL EXIST OFFSHORE WHERE INSTABILITY AND
RESULTING UPDRAFT DEPTH WILL BE GREATER.

..MEAD.. 01/29/2007