[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 211559
SWODY1
SPC AC 211557

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0957 AM CST SUN JAN 21 2007

VALID 211630Z - 221200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

THE REPLACEMENT COLD LOW CONTINUES TO SETTLE SWD THRU AZ THIS PERIOD
AS LAST WEEKS CUT-OFF RAPIDLY BECOMES ABSORBED IN THE FAST FLOW
ACROSS ERN U.S. A VERY MOIST RETURN FLOW GULF COAST STATES WILL
PERSIST THRU TONIGHT...HOWEVER WEAK LAPSE RATE AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER MINIMIZES THE DEVELOPMENT OF INSTABILITY SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT
ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS.  WILL MAINTAIN A SMALL AREA OF THUNDER
POTENTIAL ASSOCIATED WITH THE BAND OF LOW TOPPED CONVECTION NOW
MOVING EWD ACROSS SERN LA INTO SERN MS.  HOWEVER ANY LIGHTNING
STRIKES EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED TO NEAR GULF COAST WHERE SOME WEAK
CAPE IS POSSIBLE.

WHILE STEEP LAPSE RATES UNDER DEVELOPING COLD LOW DROPPING SWD THRU
AZ WILL LEAD TO CONVECTIVE SHOWERS THIS PM...LITTLE IF ANY LIGHTNING
EXPECTED GIVEN THE VERY LIMITED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY.

..HALES.. 01/21/2007