[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 211248
SWODY1
SPC AC 211245

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0645 AM CST SUN JAN 21 2007

VALID 211300Z - 221200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

LARGE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES THIS
MORNING...WITH INITIAL UPPER LOW LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO THE UPPER MS
VALLEY WHILE A SECOND LOW DIGS SOUTHWARD INTO AZ.  RELATIVELY DRY
LOW LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE PRECLUDING ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
MOST OF THE COUNTRY.  THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST REGION.

...CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT WEAK SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG BAROCLINIC
ZONE CURRENTLY OVER LA/MS.  INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS
AHEAD OF BOUNDARY WILL HELP TO TRANSPORT MORE MOIST AND MARGINALLY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS INTO PARTS OF SOUTHERN LA/MS/AL AND THE FL
PANHANDLE /DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60F/.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN
THIS AREA SHOW NEAR MOIST-ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES AND ONLY VERY WEAK
CAPE /GENERALLY LESS THAN 200 J/KG/.  NEVERTHELESS...FORCING ALONG
BOUNDARY MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR CONTINUED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  NO SEVERE STORMS ARE
ANTICIPATED DUE TO LACK OF SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY.

...AZ...
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS ALSO EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON BENEATH COLD
UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN AZ.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THIS AREA SUGGEST
 LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT POTENTIAL FOR MORE THAN AN
ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE IS TOO LOW TO OUTLOOK AT THIS TIME.

..HART.. 01/21/2007