[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 210601
SWODY1
SPC AC 210558

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1158 PM CST SAT JAN 20 2007

VALID 211200Z - 221200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGH -- WHICH WILL INITIALLY CONSIST OF ONE
FEATURE SHIFTING RAPIDLY NEWD TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND THE
OTHER DROPPING SSWWD TOWARD AZ -- WILL REMAIN OVER THE WEST THIS
PERIOD.  WITH TIME...THE ERN-MOST FEATURE WILL CONTINUE SHEARING
NEWD...WHILE THE WRN FEATURE EVOLVES INTO A CLOSED LOW AS IT CROSSES
AZ THROUGH THE PERIOD.  AT THE SURFACE...MAIN FEATURE WILL BE A WEAK
COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH/LOWER MS
VALLEY/SRN PLAINS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.  THOUGH A LIGHTNING
STRIKE OR TWO MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE DESERT SW NEAR THE EVOLVING UPPER
LOW...SOMEWHAT GREATER THUNDER POTENTIAL SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED TO
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION. 

...CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION AND VICINITY...
MOISTENING BOUNDARY IS ANTICIPATED AHEAD OF WEAK/SEWD-MOVING COLD
FRONT...THOUGH WEAK SHORT-WAVE RIDGING/SUBSIDENCE FORECAST ALOFT
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO VERY WEAK LAPSE RATES.  THIS SUGGESTS MINIMAL
INSTABILITY...AND THEREFORE ONLY ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

..GOSS.. 01/21/2007