[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 191249
SWODY1
SPC AC 191247

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0647 AM CST FRI JAN 19 2007

VALID 191300Z - 201200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN
BAJA...WITH BROAD PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE EXTENDING ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.  MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO SUGGEST THAT THE ONLY AREA WHERE SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION CAN
OCCUR FOR A RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS PARTS OF AZ/NM. 
PROLONGED UVVS AHEAD OF UPPER LOW...COMBINED WITH STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES WILL RESULT IN MARGINAL ELEVATED CAPE VALUES...DESPITE VERY
LIMITED MOISTURE.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES
ARE POSSIBLE FROM CENTRAL AZ THIS AFTERNOON...INTO WESTERN NM
TONIGHT.  NO SEVERE STORMS ARE FORECAST.

ELSEWHERE...NO ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TODAY
ACROSS THE NATION.

..HART.. 01/19/2007