[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 190543
SWODY1
SPC AC 190540

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1140 PM CST THU JAN 18 2007

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...AZ...

LATE EVENING MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST UPPER LOW WILL
BEGIN EJECTING EWD ACROSS THE NRN BAJA PENINSULA SHORTLY AFTER
12Z...THEN LIFT NEWD INTO SRN AZ BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. 
SUSTAINED ASCENT WITHIN EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET SHOULD MOISTEN
PROFILES THROUGH A DEEP LAYER ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF AZ...WHILE
LAPSE RATES STEEPEN WITHIN COOLING COLUMN.  EVEN SO...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ONLY WEAKLY DESTABILIZE THIS REGION AND SUSPECT CONVECTION
SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN TOO SHALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS. 
MOST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE CONCENTRATED SOUTH OF THE AZ
BORDER...BUT ISOLATED LIGHTNING MAY EVOLVE TO THE NORTH-EAST OF THE
MAIN UPPER LOW...ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD.

..DARROW.. 01/19/2007