[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 140545
SWODY1
SPC AC 140542

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1142 PM CST SAT JAN 13 2007

VALID 141200Z - 151200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...S AND E TX NEWD INTO THE MID-SOUTH...
THE UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE LOCATED ACROSS AZ IS EXPECTED TO EJECT ENEWD
 TO THE CNTRL PLAINS BY SUNDAY NIGHT AS A NEW SPEED MAX DROPS SEWD
INTO THE SWRN DESERTS.  ATTENDANT UPPER LEVEL JET OF 150+ KTS WILL
PROPAGATE NEWD ALONG THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WITH THE ENTRANCE REGION
SPREADING ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS.  SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME WAS
WELL-ESTABLISHED FROM SCNTRL TX NEWD INTO THE LWR OH/MS VLYS PER 00Z
RAOBS.  AS AGEOSTROPHIC FORCING DEVELOPS EARLY SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO
THE UPSTREAM TROUGH...NWRN PORTION OF THIS PLUME WILL LIKELY BE THE
IMPETUS FOR INCREASING CONVECTION/TSTMS.  AT THE SFC...THE MODIFIED
ARCTIC COLD FRONT SHOULD BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY FROM SERN AR TO THE
UPPER TX COAST AND SCNTRL TX THROUGH SUNDAY AFTN.

PROSPECTS FOR WARM SECTOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT DO NOT APPEAR ROBUST. 
STRONG INSTABILITY WILL EXIST ACROSS DEEP S TX WHERE PRE-FRONTAL AIR
MASS WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY TEMPERATURES NEAR 80F AND DEW POINTS
NEAR 68F.  PRESENCE OF A CAP AND WEAK DEEP LAYER ASCENT...HOWEVER...
SHOULD PRECLUDE SFC-BASED STORMS.  JUST TO THE N OF THE FRONT...
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT AVAILABLE CAPE WILL BE MINIMAL. 
THUS...DESPITE SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED
STORMS...HAIL RISKS SEEM LOW ACROSS SCNTRL-ECNTRL TX.  FINALLY...
FARTHER EAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-SOUTH...POOR LAPSE RATES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE AND UPDRAFTS SHOULD NOT BE PARTICULARLY
STRONG DESPITE INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR.

..RACY.. 01/14/2007