[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 140041
SWODY1
SPC AC 140039

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0639 PM CST SAT JAN 13 2007

VALID 140100Z - 141200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SERN TX NEWD INTO NRN LA/SRN AR...
00Z SFC ANALYSIS PLACES A WEAK FRONTAL WAVE JUST W OF KSHV.  THIS
WAVE WILL TRANSLATE NEWD INTO THE MID-SOUTH LATER TONIGHT.  SFC COLD
FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO RESUME A FASTER SEWD MOTION ACROSS THE
UPPER TX COAST AND NRN LA/SRN AR BY 12Z.  SRN PORTION OF THIS FRONT
WILL BE SLOWER TO ADVANCE SWD THROUGH SCNTRL/DEEP S TX.

STRONGEST LLJ MAX WILL LIKELY TRANSLATE NEWD FROM E TX THIS EVE INTO
THE MID-SOUTH OVERNIGHT IN TANDEM WITH THE FRONTAL WAVE.  UNTIL
THEN...WARM ADVECTION ENHANCED SFC-BASED TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO FORM
AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  0-1KM SRH OF 150-200 M2/S2 COINCIDENT WITH A
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN A LOW
PROBABILITY OF AN ISOLD TORNADO IN ADDITION TO RISKS OF ISOLD
DAMAGING WINDS.  BUT...THERE WILL BE A TENDENCY FOR THE ADVANCING
COLD AIR TO UNDERCUT THE UPDRAFTS AND REDUCE THE SEVERE THREATS WITH
ANY GIVEN UPDRAFT.  THUS...THE PRIMARY HAZARD WILL LIKELY REMAIN HVY
RNFL.

FARTHER S...PROMINENT CAP AROUND THE H85 LEVEL S OF THE COLD FRONT
AND LACK OF STRONGER LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL REDUCE THE CHANCES FOR
TSTMS.

ELSEWHERE...LATER TONIGHT...CONVECTION WILL INCREASE ACROSS PARTS
WCNTRL...NWRN AND CNTRL TX BETWEEN 09-12Z AS A BRANCH OF THE LLJ
BACKS AND INCREASES AHEAD OF THE SRN ROCKIES IMPULSE.  TSTMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS THE COLUMN SATURATES.  00Z SOUNDINGS SHOW 3-6 KM LAPSE
RATES IN EXCESS OF 7 DEG C PER KM FURTHER LENDING CONFIDENCE FOR AT
LEAST LOW TSTM PROBABILITIES.

..RACY.. 01/14/2007